Out of the Endzone

NCAA 2011 Bowl results

2012-01-10T21:08:00.000-05:00

This is the final entry about the 2011 NCAA Football season. I'll summarize the major bowls, rank the conference performances, and provide my final Top 25.

The first bowl was one-sided, but then we got some interesting games. I figured the bowls from Dec 21-24, those featuring Top 25 teams against non-ranked opponents, would be one-sided yawners, but two of them did not turn out that way. Tenth-ranked TCU barely held on to win against WAC winner Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss followed their shocking Conference USA title victory with a struggle against inconsistent Nevada. While the ranked teams won, we did have upsets in that streak. Marshall shocked Florida International and Sun Belt runner-up Louisiana-Lafayette beat San Diego State. The Ragin' Cajuns turned in the only victory for the Sun Belt conference.

Marshall was one of only two 6-6 teams who beat teams with a better record; Purdue was the other one. Purdue played in the Music City Bowl on Dec 27th. While most of the bowls between Dec 24 and Dec 31 were close ones, Baylor dominated the attention. The Heisman Trophy winning QB led the Bears through an offensive explosion in the Alamo Bowl. There was practically no defense and only ONE punt in the entire game. Baylor held on to win, but the Washington Huskies gave them everything they could handle. The bowls in this time range ended with the most one-sided one in this period, when 15th ranked Oklahoma beat up on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The New Years Eve bowls began with a game that looked like a blowout, as Texas A&M manhandled Northwestern. Late in the second half, though, the Wildcats offense found their bearings, and a comeback began. They fell short, but they set the stage for a series of three successive close games, including the first overtime of the postseason, as Utah and Georgia Tech fought it out in the Sun Bowl. The night ended with Auburn slaughtering Virginia in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Once again, the "New Years Day" bowls (this year played on Jan 2nd) proved a challenge for the Big Ten. Last year they went 0-5; this year they went 1-4. Houston and South Carolina, two ranked teams, beat up on non-ranked Penn State and Nebraska, as expected (I HATE how the bowl committee assigns such tough opposition to the Big Ten - they do that to the Pac-12, too. It seems they hate these two long-standing conferences). Michigan State beat Georgia in a thrilling three-overtime game that lasted over four hours. Ohio State and Wisconsin each lost by only a touchdown; a better result for Ohio State in a post-New Years Day bowl. As expected, the Rose Bowl was an offensive shootout, won by Oregon on the last full possession of the game. The day ended with the second overtime game of the day, as Oklahoma State hoped to stake their claim for a share of the National Championship with a hard-fought victory over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.

The post-New Years bowls opened with Michigan winning in the fourth and final overtime game. These four games tied for the most overtime bowl games in a single season, and the six overtime periods set a new record. West Virginia followed with a shocking spanking over Clemson, winning by the largest margin of all the bowl games (37 points) and scoring more points (70) than had been scored in a bowl game in over thirty years. That Orange Bowl victory began a series of routs that concluded with the first shutout BCS title victory in the history of the BCS.

Conference rankings
1 (tie). Mid American Conference (4-1) : The MAC ended with another impressive bowl record; in the past ten years, they are matched with the SEC for the best overall bowl record. They scored the first two bowl victories of the postseason (Temple and Ohio), overcame an offensive shootout against Air Force (Toledo), and ended with a dominating performance against the Sun Belt champ (Northern Illinois). Their loss? An upset to Purdue.
1 (tie). Conference USA (4-1) : This conference switches between great bowl records and terrible ones. This year was a strong one. Both teams in the conference title game (Southern Miss and Houston) won their bowl games, as did SMU and Marshall. Tulsa was the only loss, a close three-point battle against higher-rated BYU.
3. Big XII (6-2) : The conference with the best records throughout the season shined in the bowls. It began with Missouri beating up North Carolina in the Independence Bowl, followed by strong wins by Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. In the middle was the offensive showcase by RGIII and the Baylor Bears. Oklahoma State squeezed out a victory against Heisman runner-up Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal before Kansas State fell to Arkansas. Their other loss? Iowa State falling to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, practically a home crowd for the Scarlet Knights.
4. SEC (6-3) : This conference frequently does well in the bowls, but this year was a bit down from usual. We knew the BCS Championship would give them both a win and a loss, as we had the first inter-conference battle for the BCS title in BCS history. Georgia lost the three-overtime thriller and Vandy lost by only ten to Cincy. In fact, the worst bowl loss for the conference was LSU's shutout performance, in a game where they crossed into opposing territory only ONCE. Their wins weren't all impressive (Mississippi State won by six, Florida won by seven), but most of them were decisive.
5. Big East (3-2) : This is the only other conference with a winning bowl record. Louisville lost by seven, but then Rutgers won by the same amount. Cincy beat Vandy by only ten, and Pitt got spanked by SMU, but West Virginia redeemed the conference, winning the Orange Bowl by the largest margin of victory in the bowls.
6. Big Ten (4-6) : Not a great year for the Big Ten, but not a terrible year. Yes, they lost another Rose Bowl, but it was a close and hard-fought game; better than many. Take away the Jan 2nd games and the conference was 3-2, including an upset by Purdue. Michigan and Michigan State both played in overtime games, winning each by three points. Illinois was the other winner, reversing a six-game losing streak and proving that UCLA should have been granted the exception to play in a bowl game (although all Illini fans are happy they did, guaranteeing a bowl win for the Illini).
7. Mountain West (2-3) : Once again the Mountain West beats the WAC, but once again they still had a poor bowl showing. Boise State was the only impressive win. TCU barely scraped out theirs, and the other teams lost, although Air Force and San Diego State lost by a TOTAL of three points.
8. Sun Belt (1-2) : Not a good year for the Sun Belt. Their first bowl was their only win, and it was a tight two-point margin. They got worse as the bowls progressed.
9. Pac-12 (2-5) : The Pac-12 has had the worst stretch of bowl records than any other conference. Overmatched in most of their games, Oregon and Stanford are the only two teams who were given much of a chance to win. Oregon did, but Stanford lost in overtime. The other winner? Utah, in their first season in the conference.
10. ACC (2-6) : This was not a good year for the ACC. It began with North Carolina's thrashing and concluded with Clemson's. They lost two heartbreaking overtime games. Virginia was slaughtered by Auburn, and Wake Forest couldn't come back against Mississippi State. Their two victories were more morale-boosting than overwhelming: Florida State extended Notre Dame's bowl losing streak in a messy four-point win, and NC State beat Louisville in a mistake-filled Belk Bowl.
11. WAC (0-3) : The record says it all

Final Top 25 [Last rank in season]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) [2] : The Tide proved they deserved the National Championship. After all, they gained more yards than LSU in the first game; if their kicker hadn't been having the worst game of his life, they would have been unbeaten.
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-1) [3] : I think Alabama's decisive victory over LSU, and the Cowboys close win over Stanford, settles the question of whether they should have played for the National Championship
3. LSU Tigers (13-1) [1]
4. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [4] : Despite the loss of both the Heisman and the bowl game, Andrew Luck is likely to be drafted first by the Colts
5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) [6]
6. Oregon Ducks (12-2) [7] : The Rose Bowl and Pac-12 winner still can't leap over Stanford
7. Houston Cougars (13-1) [8] : Best season in the Cougars history
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-3) [5] : The Big Ten winner takes a three-point drop
9. Michigan Wolverines (11-2) [9]
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (11-2) [12] : Three SEC teams in the Top 10; that's a typical end of the season
11. Michigan State Spartans (11-3) [11] : I'm still overwhelmed by the comeback by the Spartans that forced overtime, and the defensive stand that forced the second overtime after the offense turned the ball over
12. TCU Horned Frogs (11-2) [10] : Dropping two points after a win? After a sad win like that one, you can't stay in the Top Ten
13. Oklahoma Sooners (10-3) [15]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (11-2) [16]
15. USC Trojans (10-2) [13] : Missing the bowls really hurt this team
16. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (12-2) [14]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3) [NR] : The Mountaineers roar back into the Top 25 with the most overwhelming win of the bowls
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3) [18]
19. Georgia Bulldogs (10-4) [23] : They battled the Spartans very well; that game was not really a loss
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-3) [24] : They knocked the Sun Belt winner out of the Top 25, leaving only eight conferences represented
21. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) [22]
22. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) [NR]
23. Baylor Bears (9-3) [25] : After the Alamo Bowl offensive showcase, RGIII should add some spice to the NFL
24. Temple Owls (9-4) [NR]
25. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) [20]

On the Edge: Clemson Tigers (10-4), BYU Cougars (9-3), Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-3), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4)

NFL 2011 Playoffs - Divisional round

2012-01-10T09:40:00.000-05:00

It was an interesting wildcard round. Despite all of the talk about the power of the wildcards, the home teams (divisional winners) all won. That by itself makes it an unusual year, as there is frequently an upset in the first week of the playoffs. Of course, there were TWO upsets this week, when you consider which teams were favored, so perhaps it was more normal after all.

We started the playoffs with two teams who struggled going into the playoffs. There was no clear favorite, and my pick of Cincy was the closest of all of the games. As it turned out, this game had nearly the largest margin of victory. Houston's defense found themselves again, and they pestered rookie Andy Dalton all day. Fellow rookie, and third string QB, T.J. Yates looked good. He had gradually been improving each week as the season concluded, and he continued his development in this game. It would be interesting to see how this defense would deal with New England, and how well Yates could move the Texans against the weakened Pats defense. We may not get to see that, though.

The next game was expected to be a blowout, but it was closer than any other game except the overtime thriller. For a while Matthew Stafford and the Lions maintained pace with the high-powered Saints, but the Saints took over in the second half. The next day, though, the Giants took over the whole game. After Atlanta scored on a safety, the Giants defense clamped down, stifling Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense all game. Eli was competent but not stellar, but he didn't have to be. He played mostly mistake-free football and let the defense control the game.

The last game was the most exciting. We didn't know how much the injuries and other player losses would affect the Steelers. Big Ben played okay on his injured ankle, but the new center caused some problems. The secondary seemed slower and lacked anticipation, and Tim Tebow exploited that. The Broncos matched the Steelers in scoring; in fact, the Broncos led for much of the game. Pittsburgh took a late lead, but the Broncos tied it up. Pittsburgh couldn't score at the end of the game, so we went to overtime. This was the first overtime with the new rules, but the rules didn't need to be invoked. Denver scored a touchdown on the first play of the game (ironically, with the longest play from scrimmage in the ENTIRE game!), and they advanced to the next round.

Denver's victory was perhaps the biggest surprise of the wildcard round, but can they continue to surprise? The Pats defense is worse than the Steelers, but their offense is much better. How will this game play out? I see this one being on offensive shootout on the order of the Lions against the Saints, but I like New England's chances. No coach prepares better for postseason games than Bill Belichick, and no team has more postseason experience than the Patriots. This game may be close for much of the time, but the Patriots will determine some ways to slow Tebow and pull away in the fourth quarter. PATS by six

Let's look at the other games:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3) : Whoa! Like the Giants/Atlanta game last week, this one could go either way. It's basically a battle of the top offense against the top defense. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense will be able to move against the Saints defense, but the key will be slowing down the Saints. If any defense can do it, it would be the 49ers. We also have to consider that the Saints do not play well on the road in the postseason. Remember, the year they won the Super Bowl they were the Number One seed; they never had to play on the road. The Saints could overwhelm the 49ers defense, but in contests of top offenses against top defenses, the defense wins in nearly 2/3rds of those, so I have to pick San Fran. 49ERS by four

HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) : Houston's defense won the battle against Cincy, but the Ravens have a better defense. They also have a better offense, and it's based on successfully running the ball, which gives them more control over the clock and the momentum. Yates is still "green" enough to need momentum to boost his performance; the Ravens should be able to shake that up. Defense is the strength of both of these teams, so expect this to be a fairly low-scoring affair. RAVENS by six

NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (15-1) : The Giants defense shut down Atlanta, but they can't count on doing that to Green Bay. Unlike other years, Green Bay comes into the playoffs healthy, which makes them even more deadly. The Giants might slow the Pack early, but they won't sustain it. This game may be close (within ten points) at the half, but the second half will be Green Bay's. PACK by twenty

NFL 2011 Playoffs - Wildcard round

2012-01-05T18:48:00.000-05:00

Let's start with the top teams and divisions. I'm always interested to see if, due to the division preference in picking playoff teams, whether the top teams are in the playoffs. Looks good for this year.

Top TWELVE teams
1. Green Bay Packers (15-1) : top seed in the NFC is the top team overall, despite resting some key players in the final game
2. New Orleans Saints (13-3) : They may be the third seed in the NFC, but that offense is pretty unbeatable
3. New England Patriots (13-3) : The top team in the AFC slides in here, which shows that the NFC is likely to win the Super Bowl again.
4. San Francisco 49ers (13-3) : The top defense makes the second seed in the NFC an attractive pick
5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) : Unbeaten in the AFC North, but their defense is slipping
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) : They regained the top defense in the conference ranking
7. Houston Texans (10-6) : A three-game losing streak coming into the playoffs is not a good sign
8. Detroit Lions (10-6) : The Lions lit up the scoreboard but couldn't surpass the Pack under a 2nd string QB. How do YOU think they'll do in the playoffs?
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) : The only non-playoff team in the NFL in the Top 12, this team had strong highs
10. Atlanta Falcons (10-6) : Matt Ryan and the Falcons proved they can score points, but can the defense stop teams?
11. San Diego Chargers (8-8) : Once again they poured it on in the latter half of the season. If they can start strong, they can return to the playoffs
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) : The Bengals didn't quite live up to their early success, but they reach the playoffs

Division ranks
1. AFC North : With three playoff teams, this division clearly leads
2. NFC North : The Bears redeemed themselves in the final week, and the Lions break a decade-long playoff drought
3. AFC East : The Pats carried this division after the Jets and Bills dissolved
4. NFC South : The Bucs pulled them down, but the rest of the division showed strength
5. NFC East : The division winner has the fewest wins since the AFL-NFL merger, but these teams were close enough to make them an interesting division
6. NFC West : How did they jump up? Late drives by Seattle and Arizona helped overcome the Rams
7. AFC South : A collapse by Jacksonville and the Colts' gain of the first draft pick shows where this division needs work
8. AFC West : The better team didn't win the division, and the rest couldn't even score as many as 75 less points than they gave up

#6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at #3 Houston Texans (10-6) : T.J. Yates has been holding his own against lesser teams, but a three-game losing streak is no way to enter the playoffs. Cincy didn't have a great streak prior to the playoffs, either, as they had lost three of their last four before the final game. Bengals QB Andy Dalton is recovering from the flu, but their offense is clicking better than the Texans. Can the Texans defense slow the Bengals? I think so. Will they slow them enough for the sputtering Texans' offense to score more? That one I question. BENGALS by four

#6 Detroit Lions (10-6) at #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) : This is the only game where I clearly favor the home team. Detroit can score points, but no team is more effective offensively than the Saints. The Lions' defense just isn't capable of slowing them, and the Lions offense won't be able to keep up. SAINTS by twelve

#5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at #4 New York Giants (9-7) : This one might be the closest game of all four. On paper, the Falcons should win easily. The Giants, however, seem to find second life in the playoffs. They will prove to be a tough team to beat. The Falcons are 0-2 in the playoffs since Matt Ryan joined them. They typically hurt themselves with penalties. If they can play cleaner ball, they should win. If not, watch out for a Giants upset. FALCONS by three

#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at #4 Denver Broncos (8-8) : The Steelers are playing without their top runner and safety, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing injured. This seems to be the perfect formula for another magical Tebow comeback. The obstacle to that? The high-powered Steelers defense, whose strong pass rush will keep Tebow on the defensive most of the game. STEELERS by five

NCAA 2011-2012 Bowl picks

2011-12-29T12:13:00.000-05:00

Time to finish my bowl picks. I left off on December 31st, but didn't finish the day. I left two of the longer-running bowl games, so we'll start there, then move to the traditional New Years' Day bowls (now on Jan 2nd due to the NFL).

Dec 31
Sun Bowl - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) v Utah Utes (7-5) : Utah struggled in their first season of the Pac-12, but came on late in the season. Georgia Tech had their share of problems, too, especially late in the season. Enough time has passed that Utah's momentum has died, so we need to examine the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams. Tech's defense is weak, and their passing offense is practically non-existent. Their running offense, though, is one of the best in the FBS. Utah has some problems on the line, so Tech's running defense will work. Utah will score, too, but a ground-churning, clock-burning offense like Tech's will wear down Utah's defense. GEORGIA TECH

Liberty Bowl - #22 Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : Vandy may play in the tough SEC, but that doesn't automatically make them a strong team. The SEC was a bit down this season, and Vandy still went 2-6 in the conference. Although the Big East was not stellar, Cincinnati also proved themselves against non-conference opponents. CINCY

Jan 2
Ticket City Bowl - #8 Houston Cougars (12-1) v Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Houston collapsed in the Conference USA Championship Game, so they have something to prove. Penn State is still reeling from the Sandusky scandal, so they want a victory to help wash away the sting. Penn State usually plays hard in bowl games, so this one will be closer than Houston would like, but I think the Cougars will pull this one out. HOUSTON

Outback Bowl - #11 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) v #23 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) : This should be an exciting game! Offensively, these teams are fairly evenly matched. Michigan State prefers to pass more, while Georgia is more ground-based, but their offensive output per game is similar. Where the Spartans gain the edge is in defense. They have slowed some powerful teams this season, including Wisconsin, so Georgia will have their hands full. The Outback Bowl frequently is a high-scoring affair, but I don't think this one will fit that mold. MICHIGAN STATE

Capital One Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #16 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) : The Big Ten has typically owned the Capital One Bowl, but a new team represents the conference. Both of these teams prefer the ground game, but the Gamecocks can pass when needed. South Carolina also has a much stronger defense, and Nebraska struggled against the strong defensive teams of the Big Ten. SOUTH CAROLINA

Gator Bowl - Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) v Florida Gators (6-6) : The Buckeyes get a chance for revenge against the team who TWICE beat them in the BCS National Championship Game. The Buckeyes struggled early in the season, but improved as they regained players serving suspensions. With those players back (especially wide receiver DeVier Posey), the Buckeyes should beat Florida, even WITHOUT former Gator coach Urban Meyer leading them yet. OHIO STATE

Rose Bowl - #5 Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) v #7 Oregon Ducks (11-2) : The Big Ten has not done well in Rose Bowls, so many analysts give the edge to Oregon. It doesn't help that Wisconsin lost in Pasadena last year. However, I like Wisconsin here. Everyone is touting Oregon's quick score offense, but Wisconsin scores just as often. They prefer running, so they don't score as quickly, but QB Russell Wilson can throw long, too. In fact, it's the diverse styles of offense that gives Wisconsin the edge. Oregon may take the early lead, but Wisconsin brutal rushing attack will wear down the Ducks defense. With the offense scoring so quickly, the defense won't get enough time to recover. This will eventually wear down the Ducks defense, especially since Oregon hasn't had to face such a physical running game all season. Wisconsin will take the lead in the second half, and maintain it. WISCONSIN

Fiesta Bowl - #4 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) v #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) : This could be the most exciting BCS game, even better than the BCS Championship Game. For only the second year does the BCS have #3 face #4 in a BCS bowl, and they have a great one. Two great quarterbacks, two teams with strong offenses, and two teams with only a single upset loss to a much weaker team -- this is a recipe for excitement. Expect lots of points and several lead changes. As much as I would love to pick Stanford in this, Oklahoma State faced more games like this during the season. The Big XII was actually the most competitive conference in the FBS, and I think the Cowboys will outlast Stanford. OKLAHOMA STATE

Jan 3: Sugar Bowl - #9 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) v #18 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) : The Hokies may have been the cream of the ACC, but they couldn't hold back Clemson in the title game. Michigan's defense will hold back the Hokies, and the offensive line will open holes for their runners. The Wolverines will control the clock, the pace of the game, and the scoreboard. MICHIGAN

Jan 4: Orange Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) v #17 Clemson Tigers (10-3) : The Mountaineers won the Big East on history; the BCS voters considered them the better overall team because they usually are. Cincy had the best stats in the conference, and the offensive-charged Tigers will have the better stats in this game. CLEMSON

Jan 6: Cotton Bowl - #20 Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) v #12 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) : The Wildcats had a decent year, but the Razorbacks were powerhouses. They generated more yards than the Wildcats, and their defense is much stiffer. Arkansas should have a pretty easy time in this game. ARKANSAS

Jan 7: Compass Bowl - SMU Mustangs (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : I've mentioned how I dislike having weaker teams play after the BCS games start, as the level of competition reduces after exciting games. The Panthers played fairly well in the Big East, but didn't do well outside of the conference. Given the weaknesses of the Big East this season, I have to favor the Mustangs. SMU

Jan 8: GoDaddy.com Bowl - #21 Arkansas Red Wolves (10-2) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) : The MAC and Sun Belt champions go at it, and this could be an interesting game. The Sun Belt is 1-1 and often does well in bowl games; the MAC is 3-1 and often play well. The Huskies have a potent running offense, and gain lots of yards. However, they also give up lots of yards, especially in the secondary, and that opens the door to the passing attack of the Red Wolves. Northern Illinois will endeavor to control the clock, but the scoreboard will belong to the Red Wolves. ARKANSAS STATE

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP -- #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) v #1 LSU Tigers (13-0) : The previous meeting was a 9-6 overtime game with no touchdowns. I think we'll see more points in this contest. What many fans forget is that Alabama was in position to score more than LSU; their kicker had a bad day. I don't think LSU should count on that in this rematch. The Alabama game woke up LSU; they played much harder after that. I think Les Miles and his team KNOWS they should have lost. They are thankful to be playing in this game, as an Alabama victory would have made them #1, likely playing against Oklahoma State. The Tigers will want to prove they can win, but I think the Tide just has more tools. With their kicking game working and their top-ranked defense, the Tide will win the grudge match. ALABAMA

NFL 2011 Week 17 picks

2011-12-28T03:41:00.000-05:00

The final week of the season, and only one playoff spot is entirely up for grabs. That's unusual. The league finishes entirely on Sunday to support the BCS bowl games.

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (14-1) : The top team in the league relaxes this week, but they will probably stay on top
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3) : Brees has had a career season, surpassing Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-3) : Tightest defense in the league, they have perhaps the easiest game of the week
4. New England Patriots (12-3) : Top team in the AFC, they need a win to clinch home field advantage
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) : They need a win to clinch the AFC North
6. Houston Texans (10-5) : A two-game losing streak and yet this team still poses a huge threat
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) : Can still clinch AFC North despite two losses to the Ravens; they need some help, though
8. Detroit Lions (10-5) : They are showing force again, and could beat a resting Pack
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-6) : They made the playoffs, but they're showing some cracks
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) : Romo's hand injury could cause them to lose

Division rankings
1. AFC North : Despite Cleveland, this division has powerful teams; could provide both AFC wildcards
2. NFC North : Chicago's four-game slide has lowered this division
3. AFC East : With Buffalo finding their offense again, this division has no slouches; the Jets are the closest team to that
4. NFC South : With Carolina winning and scoring points, only Tampa Bay drags them down
5. NFC East : No outstanding team. You have to wonder if their division winner can win a playoff game
6. NFC West : Improvements by both Seattle and Arizona has lifted this division
7. AFC South : Indy's two-game winning streak hasn't been enough to compensate for Tennessee's sporadic performances
8. AFC West : Clearly the worst division. Despite Tebow magic, San Diego remains the only team with a positive point differential

Playoff races:
AFC: The Patriots and Texans have won their divisions. The AFC North winner will have a playoff bye, as will New England. This week determines who is first seed and second seed. Houston has clinched third seed, and the AFC West winner (which is still up in the air) has the fourth. The AFC North runner-up is fifth seed. Four teams are still contenting for the sixth slot.

New England, Baltimore, Denver, and Cincy control their own destinies. If the Pats win, they have the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Ravens win clinches the AFC North and a playoff bye. The Broncos win the AFC West with a win, and the Bengals wrap up the final playoff spot by beating Baltimore. Clearly, not all four of these can happen. A Bengals loss means they need the Jets and either the Raiders or Broncos to lose. A Broncos loss allows the Raiders a chance to win the division.

NFC: This one is fairly clear. Green Bay has the top seed, the NFC East winner is fourth seed, Detroit is fifth seed, and Atlanta is sixth seed. The only real contest is between New Orleans and San Fran for second and third seed. Here, the Saints control their destiny. A win clinches a playoff bye.

Early games:
Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (12-3): The Bills might have hoped that the Pats had already clinched the top seed, so they'd rest some starters. With the Pats chasing that mark, they won't show any mercy. The Bills are starting to regain their rhythm, but the Pats will knock it out of them. PATS, 34-21

Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (12-3): The Saints are playing for a playoff bye. Carolina won't make it easy, as their offense is strong, but the Saints offense is stronger. The Saints defense may have some holes, but the Panthers defense has more. SAINTS, 31-23

Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Cutler may be healthy enough to play, but he might as well sit out. With the Bears out of playoff contention, this is a meaningless game. Besides, it seems like McCown can move the ball well enough, since the Vikings are weak. BEARS, 20-16

Detroit Lions (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-1): The Pack have already stated that they are resting many of their starters in the second half. That gives the Lions a chance to win this game and finish strongly (four wins) going into the playoffs. LIONS, 27-17

Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): The Colts need to lose to stay in the hunt for Andrew Luck, but I don't think they will. The Colts offense is finally starting to click, while the Jags are pathetic. After 13 consecutive losses, the Colts finish with three victories. COLTS, 23-20

New York Jets (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-10): What a difference two weeks makes! Back then the Jets looked like a sure playoff team, having won three in a row. Miami was struggling with mediocrity. Now the Jets have imploded, and Miami is emerging. Despite their records, these two teams now have the same difference between points scored and points allowed. Miami's defense actually looks better than the Rex Ryan-run one in New York. For that reason, I have to pick Miami to upset the Jets at home and spoil any remaining playoff hopes for the Green Machine. DOLPHINS, 23-20

San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at St Louis Rams (2-13): A probable Colts victory ensures St Louis wins the right to Andrew Luck. 49ERS, 26-13

Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5): Houston has lost two in a row. I don't think Coach Kubiak wants them to have a three-game losing streak going into the playoffs. Tennessee can surprise, but their inconsistent offense seems ripe to be ripped apart by Houston's defense. TEXANS, 23-16

Washington Redskins (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Philly has their mojo back, having won three in a row after basically losing playoff candidacy at 4-8. Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense has been looking pretty good, though, so this won't be an easy game for the home team. I think the Eagles will pull off a late fourth quarter scoring drive to crack a tie game. EAGLES, 24-17

Late games:
Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Cincy needs a win to clinch the playoffs, Baltimore needs a win to clinch the division title. This is the type of contest we love to see on the last week of the season. This one is likely to be close, but the Ravens will be playing mean. They want the division title, and the playoff bye that comes with it. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will keep it close, but the tight Ravens defense will be the difference here. With projected losses by the Jets and Oakland, though, the Bengals could still make the playoffs. RAVENS, 23-20

Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7): The Chiefs have been a tough team of late, while Tebow magic has been fading. Denver needs a win to clinch the AFC West, but it certainly will not be easy. The Chiefs could pull off the upset, but I'm picking the Broncos, mainly because I don't want Oakland to win the division. BRONCOS, 20-17

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11): The Steelers need two things to happen to win the division: a victory over the Browns, and a Bengals victory over the Ravens. The first one seems very likely, even if Big Ben doesn't play. After all, he missed last week and the Steelers still won. The Browns offense is spotty, and will be pestered all afternoon by the Steelers defense. While Cincy may not do their part, that game will be close enough to keep the Steelers fans' hopes alive. STEELERS, 20-10

San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7): This is a tough game to pick. The Chargers stink on the road, but the Raiders haven't been great at home. The Chargers had won three of four prior to last week, while Oakland had gone 1-3 in that same span. The Chargers offense was anemic against the Lions last week, but the Raiders needed overtime to get past the surging Chiefs. This is basically a "pick-em" game. I'll choose the Chargers simply because I don't want Oakland to win. CHARGERS, 24-20

Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Prior to last week's loss to the Bengals, the Cards had won four in a row. Their late season surge was reminiscent of the Seahawks last season. Seattle played San Fran close, nearly costing the 49ers a chance at a playoff bye. The Cardinals have been strong at home, which makes them an attractive pick. However, I like the job Marshawn Lynch has been doing running the ball. The Cardinals aren't too good at stopping a strong runner, so I think the Seahawks line will give Lynch enough room to get at least 120 yards, and propel the Seahawks to victory. SEAHAWKS, 23-20

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6): Nobody likes to "back in" to the playoffs, and that's just what happened for Atlanta. They want a strong victory to show they deserve the playoff spot, and the sputtering Bucs give them an excellent opportunity to do that. FALCONS, 27-17

Sunday night:
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7): The division title is on the line, so you know Romo will play. However, you have to wonder if his hand will slow him down. Although he did not suffer severe damage when he hit Jason Babin's helmet on Saturday, the severe swelling was a concern. The swelling has gone down, but the hand is still tender, causing some concern for the team. They return from the holidays today, so his presence and performance in practice is crucial. On the Giants side of the ball, Eli Manning seems to be regaining some of his early season form, thanks in large part to Victor Cruz. Cruz has been the receiver on a few amazing catches, including the 99-yard TD last week. If Cruz continues on form, Dallas' D can't stop them. GIANTS, 23-20

NFL 2011 Week 16 picks

2011-12-22T14:14:00.000-05:00

The playoff picture is clearing up, Green Bay lost their first game the same week Indy wins their first, and the league plays mostly on Saturday this week, giving their players Christmas Day off. Only Chicago has to travel to play an away game Christmas night, and they don't travel far to face division rival Green Bay.

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers : Despite a loss, the Pack are still the most dangerous team in the league
2. New Orleans Saints : Right now, this team has the most dangerous offense in the league
3. San Francisco 49ers : And this team has the toughest defense
4. New England Patriots : The most ingenious and innovative coach lives here
5. Houston Texans : TJ Yates has kept this team on track for the playoffs, establishing a 3-2 record since he took over. He's doing better than Caleb Hanie, which is why Hanie won't be starting anymore
6. Baltimore Ravens : A powerful team who is chasing Houston for second place in the AFC
7. Pittsburgh Steelers : Even with a hurt QB, the Steelers continue to charge
8. Detroit Lions : The Lions squeezed out a win, and remain ahead of Atlanta
9. Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons can see a playoff spot
10. Dallas Cowboys : Still leading the NFC East, a win this week gives them a playoff spot

Division rankings
1. NFC North : The Bears and Vikings are struggling, but Detroit's winning streak keeps them on top
2. AFC East : A close contest with the AFC North, the East has teams clustered closer together, despite the Bills' long losing streak
3. AFC North : Cincy won, so this division is fighting for second place
4. NFC South : New Orleans and Atlanta lead this division strongly
5. NFC East : Not a great week for this division
6. NFC West : Seattle's three-game winning streak boosts this division
7. AFC South : Indy's win helped
8. AFC West : This division has such a gap that they should remain on the bottom the rest of the season

Playoff race
AFC: New England wins the East and leads in the race for home field advantage. Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston all trail by one. Baltimore still holds the tiebreaker in the ever-close AFC North race. Denver leads the West by one game. Cincy and the Jets are competing for the sixth playoff spot, although Tennessee, Oakland, and San Diego are chasing them for it.
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran won their divisions. New Orleans leads by two and clinches with a win over Atlanta. Dallas leads the East by a game, but things look tough. Green Bay has the top seed while New Orleans and the 49ers battle for second place. Atlanta and Detroit lead the race for the wildcard spots, and a win by each clinches it. The Bears, Giants, Seahawks, and Cards have an outside chance, but they need to win out and hope Atlanta and Detroit loses both of their remaining games -- such a scenario seems unlikely.

Thursday game
Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13): The Colts won last week, but I don't think they'll win two in a row. The Texans will not rest their starters for the playoffs, as they are battling for a bye week. That makes their defense too strong for the struggling Colts offense to overcome. The Colts defense isn't great, either, and Yates has shown tremendous ability to move the ball. TEXANS, 27-17

Saturday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6): Both teams still have playoff aspirations, but the Bengals have a better shot. They also have the better offense, although the Cards have been known to put together some strong games. The Bengals have gotten out of their slump, and are now challenging for the second and last wildcard spot. I think Kolb and company will give them a tough time, but the Bengals should be able to pull this one out. BENGALS, 23-20

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4): The Ravens know they have to keep winning if they want to win the division; that tiebreaker only works if they end up with as many wins as the Steelers. With Pittsburgh facing the lowly Rams this week, the Ravens won't let up. They have typically owned these "old Browns versus new Browns" games, and I think they will again. RAVENS, 23-16

Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9): The Broncos win streak ended, but mainly because they went away from their game plan. They may return to it for this game, but I'm sure they'll even fall behind too much. The Bills offense has been sputtering badly, and they can't even blame that on injuries. The Broncos need a win and losses by both Oakland and San Diego to win the division. I'm not sure they'll get all of that, but a win here should be likely. BRONCOS, 27-23

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7): Tennessee still has remote playoff chances, but they need to win out. They should be able to win here. TITANS, 23-16

Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots are chasing home field advantage, so they won't slack off in this game. The Dolphins pulled out a win last week, but their play has been too inconsistent to believe they can pull off this upset. PATS, 30-20

Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9): You know, if the Colts can win another game, the Vikings might have a shot at Andrew Luck. They like Christian Ponder, though, and it's not Ponder's fault that the team has struggled so mightily this season. The defense hasn't been able to stop a fly, and Adrian Peterson isn't moving very quickly. Rex Grossman played against the Vikings enough to know how to read their defense, and they aren't fast enough to fluster him. REDSKINS, 27-21

New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6): This game could go either way. Both offenses can (and have at different times this season) sputter, and neither defense has shown the type of strength expected from them. Technically, this is a home game for both of them. I'll favor the Jets just because they might get nastier (which can be helpful when you are chasing a playoff berth), but don't be surprised if the Giants win. JETS, 17-16

Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8): The Chiefs knocked the Packers of their unbeaten pedestal; will they suffer from an emotional letdown? Orton has provided a great spark to this team, helping interim coach Romeo Crennel to his first win leading the Chiefs. He might do it again against the Raiders, likely knocking them out of the playoff hunt. I'll pick the Raiders because they can be nasty to divisional opponents, but watch for another Orton-led victory. RAIDERS, 20-17

St Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): The Steelers are battling for the division title, and they need to keep winning. That should be easy against the hapless Rams, who might find themselves in the market for Andrew Luck, especially considering that Sam Bradford has one of the worst quarterback ratings in the league. STEELERS, 20-13

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-11) at Carolina Panthers (5-9): Tampa's defense has collapsed this season. Given the number of yards that Cam Newton and company generate each game, there is no way Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will get close enough to win. PANTHERS, 30-20

Saturday late games:
Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6): The Eagles would love to play spoiler, especially since a divisional win would give them the tiebreaker in a three-way tie with Dallas and the Giants for the division title. They have the tools to do it, you just wonder if they have the incentive. Philly has been playing like a team "going through the motions" nearly all season. Can they perk up now? Also, will they be assisted by a Dallas December collapse? The Cowboys seem to be successfully preventing their annual collapse this year, which is why they hold the lead in the division. If they can successfully hold it off, they should win this game. They will know if a win will clinch the division, too; if the Jets win, the Cowboys have additional incentive to win. COWBOYS, 27-23

San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (8-6): Both teams are chasing playoff spots. If the Lions were still sputtering, I'd pick the Chargers easily. Now, I'm not so sure. The Chargers have STUNK on the road this season, despite winning their last road outing. Also, the Lions are perfect against the AFC. I like Detroit to win this game and clinch a playoff berth. LIONS, 27-23

San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7): Oh brother, the 49ers better watch out! Seattle, like last year at this time, is getting hot, while the 49ers have been a bit lackluster the past couple of weeks. San Fran knows that a first week playoff bye is on the line, but Seattle still has hopes for the playoffs. Both teams have much at stake. I'll pick the 49ers, but they need to pick up the pace. 49ERS, 23-16

Sunday night:
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1): The Packers perfect season has evaporated, but they won't slow down. The Bears have finally given up on Caleb Hanie, and brought back Luke McCown. McCown hasn't been playing since he was cut by Carolina in 2009. He knows Martz' system, but can he start strongly enough to keep pace with the Packers? The stingy Bears defense will help, but I think McCown will have too much to overcome to win his first start in four years. PACK, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3): This game has all of the excitement. The Saints clinch their division with a win, and place themselves in strong contention for a playoff bye. The Falcons can gain tiebreaker points over the Saints, trail them by only a game, and clinch a playoff berth with a win. The obstacle for Atlanta? The Saints offense. The Falcons defense isn't strong enough to stop them. The question is whether they can be slowed enough for Atlanta to keep pace. I think the Falcons might be successful early, but the Saints offense will wear down the Falcons defense, allowing the Saints to pull away in the fourth quarter. SAINTS, 30-20

NFL 2011 Week 15 picks

2011-12-14T08:51:00.000-05:00

Saturday games begin this week, competing with college bowl games. It's the fun time of the year. Playoff slots are starting to fill, too.

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (13-0) : They slaughtered the Raiders as that unbeaten season looms larger
2. New Orleans Saints (10-3) : The Saints clinched a playoff spot as they are battling San Fran for the second seed
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) : Surprised by the Cards, the 49ers are now playing catch-up for a playoff bye
4 (tie). New England Patriots (10-3) : They got a scare against the Redskins, but the Pats clinched the playoffs and maintained their lead over the Jets
4 (tie). Houston Texans (10-3) : The Texans clinched their first division title ever and continue to battle for home field advantage
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) : They maintain their edge over Pittsburgh and the rest of the conference
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) : The Steelers are still a tough team, with the toughest defense in the AFC, and they clinched the playoffs this week, too
8. Detroit Lions (8-5) : They regained their winning ways, but it wasn't pretty
9. New York Jets (8-5) : Still a threat and in the playoff hunt
10. Chicago Bears (7-6) : They may have opened the door to another Tebow comeback, but they did show that they can move the ball with Hanie

Division standings
1. NFC North : Three top ten teams make them strong, but the Bears are falling and the Vikings are dragging them down
2. AFC East : The Dolphins are improving, as are the Jets.
3. AFC North : As Cincy slides, so does the division
4. NFC South : Atlanta is improving, so the strength of the Saints elevates them
5. NFC East : Philly won big and New York ended their losing streak. Is an upward swing on the rise?
6. AFC South : Houston holds position while Tennessee holds their own
7. NFC West : Seattle looked good and Arizona upset San Fran, so the division is moving up
8. AFC West : San Diego finally has a positive point differential, but this division is still weak

Playoff race
AFC: Houston won the first division title of the conference. The Pats, Ravens, and Steelers all clinched playoff spots. Denver leads the West and the Jets lead the race for the sixth spot
NFC: Green Bay clinches the top seed and the Saints clinch a playoff spot. The 49ers loss creates a dead heat for second seed. Dallas and the Giants are now tied for the East title. Detroit and Atlanta lead the wildcard race.

Thursday game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5) : The Falcons maintain their hold on the NFC wildcard race with a win here. The Jags can have flashes of brilliance, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons are starting to gel again. FALCONS, 24-16

Saturday's game:
Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-10): Dallas doesn't have to worry too much about their traditional December collapse, because the Bucs have already collapsed. Dallas gets to take a half game lead on the Giants. COWBOYS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3): It's time for Cam Newton to face a REAL NFL defense. This one might be closer than Houston would like, but TJ Yates is improving, and their crushing defense will slow the Newton express. TEXANS, 27-20

Ciucinnati Bengals (7-6) at St Louis Rams (2-11): Ah, the Bengals get to stop their downward skid with an easy game against a struggling team. I don't think Sam Bradford's injury will be completely healed, so he will once again swap time with Kellen Clements. Cincy's defense should bleed less this game, as there is less to stop. Andy Dalton and the offense should have an easy time slicing through the weak Rams defense. BENGALS, 30-13

Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8): They have clinched the top seed in the NFC, so one wonders if they will slack off to prevent injury. It wasn't THAT long ago that the Pack failed to reach the playoffs due to late season injuries, so they know the danger. Fortuntately, they won't have to worry too much against the Chiefs. They are weak enough that the Pack can put in the second string in the second half and still win this game. PACK, 27-17

Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8): Miami is starting to look good, especially on defense. The offense took a step up when JP Losman stepped in for Matt Moore. The Dolphins might play him this week, as he knows his old team well. I think the Bills' slide will contineu. I'm not even sure a Dolphins victory would constitute an upset at this point. DOLPHINS, 26-20

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11): The Saints are chasing San Fran for the first week playoff bye, and they see a chance. With the 49ers playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football, the Saints know a win here gives them an edge. That win shouldn't be difficult, as the Vikings defense is porous. The Saints will allow the Vikings to score, but not enough to keep pace with the Saints. SAINTS, 34-20

Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6): The Seahawks looked good last week, but they have rarely strung two good weeks together this season. Furthermore, the Bears know they let last week's game slip away, as they led 10-0 in the fourth quarter. With Hanie starting to look better and Marion Barber getting comfortable in his starting role, I think the Bears bear down and win this thing. BEARS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13): A winless season for the Colts is starting to seem eminent. Tennessee may have lost their shot at competing for the divistion title, but the playoffs are still in reach, so they will play hard against a hapless Colts team. TITANS, 26-13

Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6): Both teams woke up last week. Which one stays awake? The Giants are battling for the division title, so they certainly have more incentive. Eli has been having a good year; I think he can keep it up. GIANTS, 27-20

Sunday late games:
Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7): The Cards rose again last week as Kevin Kolb showed why the Cards wanted him. With Cleveland struggling, the Cards have a chance to impress again. CARDS, 20-13

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6): Oakland just suffered a tough loss to the Packers, so they want revenge on the NFC North. The Lions are finding their rhythm again, so that will be a tall order. With the Lions chasing a long-awaited playoff berth, they have even more incentive to play hard. LIONS, 28-23

New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5): With the Patriots' patchwork defense, they have to be concerned about another Tebow comeback. The Pats will take an early lead and hold it into ihe fourth, but that's when Tebow is most dangerous. He could do it again, but I'll pick the Pats. If anyone can keep his team conscious of the dangers of letting Tebow loose, it's Bill Belichick. PATS, 30-23

New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8): The Jets are chasing a playoff spot. For the Eagles, it's pretty much over. They aren't the type to give up, but they haven't been playing especially hard this season, and I see no reason for that to change. JETS, 23-17

Sunday night:
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7): The Chargers offense is back on a roll, but they face a real challenge in the Ravens defense. The Chargers are strong enough to move the ball, but the Ravens will slow them down, and stuff them on some trips across midfield. The Chargers defense is somewhat lacking, so the Ravens will get opportunities to score. The lead may change a few times in this game, but the visitors defense will win out in the end. RAVENS, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3): This might be the best game of the week. Two powerful defenses clash in what will be a slow, grinding game of yards. With Big Ben's status questionable, and Frank Gore the principal gainer for the 49ers, this will be a ground game. If San Fran hadn't been upset last week, I'd give the edge to the Steelers. However, the 49ers are desperate to win, especially since the Saints will likely have a half game lead on the playoff bye at the start of this game. 49ERS, 20-17

NCAA 2011 Bowl picks

2011-12-11T12:22:00.000-05:00

Welcome to the first of two columns where I pick the NCAA bowl winners. In this one, I cover all of the games in December, except for two long-running bowls, the Sun Bowl and Liberty Bowl. Those two will be covered in the next column.

This year the bowl committees arranged some interesting matchups. I am shocked by a few things, however. I do not understand why TCU and Boise State, two Top Ten teams who have proven success in prestiguous bowls, were consigned to such minor bowls against weak opponents. It's almost like these former BCS busters were being punished. The Poinsettia Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl will be horribly one-sided affairs. So will the Hawaii Bowl, which pairs Conference USA winner Southern Miss against Nevada.

One team is only playing a bowl game due to a technicality. UCLA hs become only the second team in NCAA history with a losing record playing in a bowl game. At 6-7, they should not be playing in a bowl, despite being bowl eligible. They played in the Pac-12 Championshp simply because USC was on probation. They lost that game, despite playing above themselves. There is no reason they should be playing in a bowl, other than a shortage of bowl eligible teams from the major conferences (that is why the SEC does NOT have the most bowl teams, a record they've had for the past three years). The only advantage to this situation is that Illinois has a bowl opponent they might actually beat.

NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Temple Owls (8-4) v Wyoming Cowboys (8-4): The first bowl will likely be one of the closest. These two teams are equally tough, with similar philosophies. Both teams prefer to run; Temple is simply better at it. Wyoming can put together a passing attack if necessary, while Temple is pretty much grounded. That ability may benefit Wyoming, as Temple has one of the stingiest ground defenses in the FBS. That defense gives Temple the advantage in the game. TEMPLE

IDAHO BOWL -- Ohio Bobcats (9-4) v Utah St Aggies (7-5): Ohio failed to win the MAC title, and as punishment they play one of the earliest bowls. They get Utah State, a tricky opponent who gave opponents problems throughout the season. While Utah State will have some good plays, I expect Ohio to dominate this game. OHIO

NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt has a tricky bowl history. Sometimes they have done well (2-0), other times terribly (0-2). This year they have three teams in the bowls, tied for the most they've ever had. They went 2-1 that year. Can they repeat, or even improve, that success? The Ragin' Cajuns were the rage in conference games, racking up a 6-2 record and, at one time, competing for the conference title. They even flirted with a Top 25 ranking. However, the Cajuns were not great out of conference, and their history of close games makes one question what would happen if they had to come from behind. I have to favor the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE

ST PETERSBURG BOWL -- Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6): We follow a Sun Belt loss with a Sun Belt win. The Golden Panthers have a strong defense and a well-balanced offense. Marshall is a streaky team that has no viable running game to fall back upon. Considering the strength of Florida International's defense, that lack of a running game will hurt Marshall. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

POINSETTIA BOWL -- #10 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4): Not much to say here. We've seen the power of TCU during the season, while Louisiana Tech did little outside of the WAC. TCU

LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) v #6 Boise State Broncos (11-1): The Sun Devils had talent, but they relied too much on a struggling quarterback. Boise State has too many weapons for the Sun Devils to stop, and Arizona State is not equipped to come back from a large deficit. BOISE STATE

HAWAII BOWL -- Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v #14 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2): I don't know why the Conference USA winner ends up here, rather than a more prestiguous bowl. I will admit, spending time in Hawaii is attractive, but Southern Miss has already been criticized by costing their conference valuable BCS money by beating Houston. I suspect the bowl representatives had already made up their minds about the Golden Eagles before the Conference USA title game, as Houston still ended up with a New Year's Day game. As a reward for costing the conference that money, Southern Miss goes to Hawaii and scores an easy win. SOUTHERN MISS

INDEPENDENCE BOWL -- Missouri Tigers (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5): North Carolina has an unbeaten non-conference record, but they played fairly easy opponents. I'm more impressed with the highly-ranked running game of the Tigers. Missouri is considered one of the best running teams in the nation, and that can exhaust defenses. Missouri will not have the services of Coach Gary Pinkel, who was suspended after a DUI arrest. That might give North Carolina an advantage, but the Tigers are dedicating this game to their beloved coach. MISSOURI

LITTLE CAESARS DETROIT BOWL -- Western Michigan Broncos (7-6) v Purdue Boilermakers (6-6): In what is practically a home game for the Broncos, they face their fourth Big Ten team in 2011. They lost the previous three, so you'd think they'd be concerned. However, Purdue's stats are not good. Yes, they were able to win a couple of games they weren't expected to win, but overall Purdue was not a great team in the Big Ten. WESTERN MICHIGAN

BELK BOWL -- Louisville Cardinals (7-5) v NC State Wolfpack (7-5): Louisville came from nowhere to win a share of the Big East title. They are perfectly equipped for a bowl win. They struggled early, but came together to win five of their last six games. Those games pitted Louisville against their toughest opponents (except Cincy, who beat them right before that streak), and they stepped up. How did they succeed in those games? A strong defense. That's a great tool to have in a bowl game, especially against a team that wins as much on emotion as talent. If that defense shuts down the NC State offense, expect the Wolfpack to lose their heads, rack up penalties, and basically give the game to Louisville. LOUISVILLE

MILITARY BOWL -- Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (7-5): Let's face it, the Rockets are in a "no win" situation. This is the Military Bowl, so the service academy is the emotional favorite. Also, their coach already has his next job sealed - coaching my Alma Mater, the Illinois Fighting Illini. What could inspire the Rockets to win? I think the players want to send their coach out with a win, especially in recognition of what he's done for them. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last year, Coach Beckman led them to an 8-4 record. They were supposed to improve this year, so some people consider their 8-4 record a disappointment. The players don't want this "disappointment" to extend to the bowl game. While I'm sure they will be booed every time they score, as the largely military audience will be rooting for Air Force, the Top Ten offense of Toledo will simply score too much for the more conservative Falcons to overcome. TOLEDO

HOLIDAY BOWL -- California Golden Bears (7-5) v Texas Longhorns (7-6): The Holiday Bowl typically features lots of scoring, and this year may be no exception. While their defense is solid, Texas and California both have tools to score, and score often. Texas prefers to run while Cal prefers to pass. Texas' Case McCoy has had a bit of an interception problem in later games, but Texas comes back well from those. Texas' record is influenced by huge losses to four Top 25 teams. I like Texas' chances to succeed here. TEXAS

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL -- Florida State Seminoles (8-4) v #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): This is a great matchup of two historic teams. Florida State has a great record in bowl games, but they struggle against strong programs. Penn State embarrased them two years ago, and now Notre Dame has the chance. Notre Dame lost only two games by more than three points, and both of those were to Top 25 Pac-12 teams (USC and Stanford). Both of those had powerful offenses, a feature lacking in the Seminoles. Florida State has won with defensive battles, but Notre Dame's defense isn't bad, either. NOTRE DAME

ALAMO BOWL -- Washington Huskies (7-5) v #25 Baylor Bears (9-3): With the Heisman Trophy in hand, Robert Griffin III gets a chance to win this game, and win it big. This will likely be his last college game, so you know he wants it to count. His passing accuracy and arm speed will play havok against one of the worst defenses in the country. This one will be decided early in the second quarter, as Baylor will open a four score lead before halftime. BAYLOR

ARMED FORCES BOWL -- BYU Cougars (9-3) v Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-4): Apparently the Military Bowl had to be created because the Armed Forces Bowl decided not to invite a service academy. By record, these teams seem closely matched. If you observe their respective opponents, though, you realize that BYU faced tougher opponents, and is a much tougher team. BYU

PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) v Iowa State Cyclones (6-6): The tricky and unpredictable Iowa State Cyclones travel half the country to face Jersey-based Rutgers in favorable territory. Iowa State is known for their shocking wins over then-ranked Texas Tech and Top Five Oklahoma State. However, a more interesting fact is Rutgers and Iowa State's performances against a common opponent. Both teams faced UConn this season. Rutgers lost by twenty points, Iowa State won by four. The Cyclones didn't lose a single non-conference game. Iowa State's losses are all to Top 25 (or nearly so, in Missouri's case) teams, while Rutgers struggled against weaker teams. Upsets happen in bowl games, and I'm picking one here. IOWA STATE

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6): For this game, I am also influenced by strength of schedule. They play in the SEC, recently the toughest conference in the country (although not this year -- the Big XII was). They beat all of the non-conference opponents they faced. Their losses were all to ranked teams, except for a close contest against Auburn. Wake ended the season with a HUGE loss to SEC Vanderbilt. I have to favor the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE

INSIGHT BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v #15 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3): The bowl representatives didn't tip the scales against the Big Ten as much as they typically do, but this matchup is definitely designed to embarrass the Big Ten. They pit the offensively-challenged Hawkeyes against one of the strongest offenses in the country. This one won't be pretty for Big Ten fans like myself. OKLAHOMA

TEXAS BOWL -- Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) v Northwestern Wildcats (6-6): The Wildcats enter a hostile environment, as the Aggies are clearly the favorites. The Wildcats can shine in bowl games, and their defense might give the Aggies fits, but the Wildcats have faded in the fourth quarter this season, which should allow the Aggies the chance to come back and win. TEXAS A&M

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v UCLA Bruins (6-7): I don't like the idea of a team with a losing record playing in a bowl game, so I'd want the Bruins to lose no matter who they play. They face my Illini, so I further want them to lose. Clearly Illinois has the better talent, but their predictable offensive scheme allowed teams to know what they were going to do. That's how they could start 6-0 and lose their next six games. UCLA played well in the Pac-12, but stunk out of conference. That cost Rick Neuheisel his job. Ron Zook is also out. Both teams are led by interim coaches, as their replacements are coaching in other bowl games. I like the fact that Illinois did NOT choose offensive coordinator Paul Petrino to coach this game, choosing instead defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. The defense was the strong part of Illinois' team this season, and Koenning can now veto the predictability of Petrino's game plan. That should give the edge to Illinois. ILLINOIS

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) v Auburn Tigers (7-5): Before my analysis, let me reveal two pertinent facts: I do not like the Auburn Tigers, and I've been in Virginia's corner all season. Auburn's reputation has been built on defense, but their defense is down a bit this year. Auburn is cocky enough to believe that, because they play in the SEC, teams from other conferences are beneath them. As I've already stated, the SEC was NOT the top conference this season; that honor goes to the Big XII. Yes, two SEC teams may be playing for the BCS title, but overall the Big XII had more Top 25 teams, and had better overall records. My God, only ONE team in the Big XII had a losing record! Virginia will not be overwlemed by playing an SEC team. Without the advantage of such nervousness, Auburn doesn't have even to get them past Virginia. VIRGINIA

NFL 2011 Week 14 picks

2011-12-07T09:55:00.000-05:00

It's time to look at the playoff picture. I'll include that before this week's picks.

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (12-0) : At this point, does any team stand a chance to remove the Pack from the top spot? Even if the Pack doesn't go unbeaten, they've established too much of a lead over any other team.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-3) : Second best offense in the league is looking even scarier
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is decent. They've already won their division, and they're battling New Orleans for a bye week
4. Houston Texans (9-3) : Fortunately, they face easy teams while TJ Yates is under center. Their tough defense also helps
5. New England Patriots (9-3) : They could vault over Houston this week
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : Well-rounded team that is a threat on all sides of the ball, even special teams
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : Only Baltimore seems to be able to crack this steel-hard team
8. Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions are stumbling, and they don't have injuries as an excuse
9. Chicago Bears (7-5) : Chris Hanie is not looking good. Defense is tough, but the Bears need to move the ball
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : Rob Ryan's defense shows cracks, so they are thankful that Romo hasn't self-destructed, as he often does at this time of the season

Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With three Top Ten teams, they remain on top, but the skids by Chicago and Detroit makes this division vulnerable
2. AFC East : Without Buffalo, this division would have teams with all positive point differentials, and Buffalo's isn't too bad
3. AFC North : Cincy's recent problems has dropped the division
4. NFC South : Tampa is dragging them down, but the other teams have punch
5. NFC East : Most of these teams are close in stats, but unfortunately those stats don't look too good
6. AFC South : Houston's QB problems gives Tennessee an opening. Meanwhile, the division falls
7. NFC West : The 49ers are the only team of merit
8. AFC West : Denver's improving, and San Diego broke their losing streak. They might leap over their NFC rivals this week

Playoff races
AFC: The Patriots lead the East by two games, and they seem to have a solid grasp on that title. They are battling with Baltimore for top seed. Baltimore and Pitt are tied, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker. Houston leads Tennessee by two, but working with a third-string QB hurts the Texans. They are happy to have the toughest defense in the conference. Denver has taken the lead in the West, and they are certainly doing better than any other team in that division. Pitt clearly leads the wildcard race, with the Jets and Titans strong contenders. Cincy is slipping, as are their playoff chances

NFC: Green Bay and San Fran have clinched their division, and are playing for a bye week. The Pack clinches a bye with a win this week; home field throughout would take at least one more. The Saints lead the South by two games, and Atlanta is too inconsistent to catch them. Dallas leads by one in the East, and should maintain that lead if they avoid their traditional Dec slide. Atlanta and Detroit leads the wildcard race, as the Giants are too inconsistent and the Bears injuries have devastated their offense.

Thursday's game
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : This won't be pretty. The Steelers defense will pester McCoy and the Browns, while the Steelers offense will grind up yardage and clock time with Mendenhall running with the ball. STEELERS, 21-13

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8) : This game will be close (many of Carolina's games have been), but the poor Panthers defense will give the Matt Ryan and the Falcons a chance to boost their stats. FALCONS, 28-24

Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) : Andy Dalton and the Bengals are hoping that the QB woes of Houston gives them an opening, but the Bengals have struggled terribly against stiff defenses this year, and defenses don't get stiffer than the Texans'. If Yates doesn't throw turnovers (and he's been good at avoiding that), the Texans should win this by sheer power. TEXANS, 20-16

Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : I know the chance for 0-16 frustrates Peyton Manning, but I hope he remains on the sidelines to completely heal. Certainly this game will be a bust, with the Colts inconsistent offense (which has been looking better recently) and the Ravens tough defense. RAVENS, 24-16

Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5) : The Chiefs may think they stand a chance, since Tyler Palko scored his first touchdown last week. Granted, the Jets defense isn't as good as the Bears, but the offense, even with a sputtering Mark Sanchez, is better than the Bears' without Cutler and Forte. New York City analysts are predicting a shut-out -- the Jets' D isn't that good. The Chiefs will score, but not enough. JETS, 27-13

Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions see an opening with the Bears struggling. They can pull a game ahead of their division rival and help their wildcard status. Their defense will allow the Vikings a peek at victory, until a fourth quarter touchdown puts them fourteen ahead. The Vikes will engineer one more scoring drive, but fail to convert the onside kick. LIONS, 30-23

New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8) : The Redskins have shown flashes of brilliance, but with Grossman under center, they are too inconsistent to count on. PATS, 27-17

New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5) : The Titans defense isn't good enough to slow the Saints and the offense can't keep pace. The Titans may score a late touchdown, making the game LOOK closer than it was, but this one will never be in doubt. SAINTS, 28-23

Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) : Matt Moore is looking pretty good, and has the Dolphins offense moving. The Eagles are in free fall. DOLPHINS, 27-20

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) : Blaine Gabbert has good streaks and bad ones. Josh Freeman is a bit more consistent, but not much. What has hurt the Bucs is the collapse of their defense, which gives the edge to Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew. JAGS, 24-20

Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) : The draught is over for the Chargers, while the Bills continue to fall. I have to like San Diego's chances to make it two in a row. CHARGERS, 28-23

Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5) : The Broncos are winning with Tim Tebow, while the Bears offense is hurt. If Forte had not been injured last week, I'd easily pick the Bears, as the Broncos run defense has been terrible this season. I can certainly count on the Bears defense to make things difficult for the Broncos offense, but Tebow is sneaky enough to score a bit. The Bears defense will score on a turnover, and I think Devin Hester is due for another great return, but the Bears' offense will not do much on their own. BRONCOS, 23-17

Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0) : The Raiders can be tricky, but Green Bay can be a tough place to play. While the weather seems favorable, the Pack offense is just too much to stop. PACK, 31-20

San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7) : The Cards offense can be unpredictable, on one week and off the next. Against the stiff 49ers defense, it'll be off. 49ERS, 26-16

Sunday night
New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : The Cowboys can take a two-game lead in the division, and severly damage the Giants' playoff chances, with a win here. The Giants put up lots of points against the Packers last week, but Rob Ryan will have a defensive scheme to frustrate the streaky Eli Manning. If you can throw him off early, his timing will be off all game. COWBOYS, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- St Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7) : The Seahawks' offense is struggling, but the Rams offense is absolutely abyssmal. The Seahawks defense is better, and that will be the difference in this game. SEAHAWKS, 26-17

NCAA 2011 PreBowl Top 25

2011-12-04T10:41:00.000-05:00

Few surprises this week - just the margin of victory of Oklahoma State (obviously trying to impress BCS voters) and the results of the ACC and Conference USA Championships. Each of these affected the Top 25.

Current Top 25 [Last position]
1. LSU Tigers (13-0) [1] : Their slaughter of Georgia clearly makes them the top team in the SEC
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [2] : Oklahoma State may have destroyed their rival, but Alabama still had more impressive wins this season. Their only loss was on overtime game against the top team in the country.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) [5] : Impressive win against Oklahoma and a loss by Houston moves the Cowboys back to Number Three.
4. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) [3]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) [6] : They beat Michigan State in a hard-fought Big Ten Championship
6. Boise State Broncos (11-1) [7] : Finished the season with a massive shut-out
7. Oregon Ducks (11-2) [9] : They had trouble against UCLA. Their offense should be afraid of Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl
8. Houston Cougars (12-1) [4] : They were slaughtered in the Conference USA Championship. They would have dropped from the Top Ten if not for losses by other teams.
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [10]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) [14]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) [11] : They lost the Big Ten Championship, but they played well and led for much of the game. No penalty, and they should gain a strong bowl bid.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) [13]
13. USC Trojans (10-2) [15]
14. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2) [18] : Their conquest of Houston puts them in BCS at-large territory
15. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) [8] : All I can say is, that's a lousy way to conclude the season. They'd better get a good bowl opponent, because they need a win to wash away the stink of that performance.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [16]
17. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [23] : Their commanding victory over Virginia Tech propels them high in the rankings
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) [12]
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) [19]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) [20] : They had trouble against Iowa State
21. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) [21]
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) [24] : If I had a BCS vote, I'd give Cincy the Big East title. Unfortunately, most of the unimaginative BCS voters judge a team on their history, not the current year's performance, and history is on the side of West Virginia.
23. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) [17] : Bad loss in the SEC Championship. They led after one quarter, but couldn't score after that
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) [NR] : The MAC winner reaches the Top 25
25. Baylor Bears (9-3) [NR]

Dropped: Ohio Bobcats [#22], Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets [#25]

Just missed:
- West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) : The likely winner of the Big East didn't quite have enough power to replace Cincy in the rankings
- BYU Cougars (9-3) : Their impressive win against Hawaii was not typical for them this year.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) : Had some trouble against the Big Ten defenses
- Temple Owls (8-4) : Lower record and MUCH weaker strength of schedule

NFL 2011 Week 13 picks

2011-11-29T09:16:00.000-05:00

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (11-0) : They are looking more and more unbeatable
2. New Orleans Saints (8-3) : Potent offense that nobody can stop
3. Houston Texans (8-3) : Best defense in the AFC, and the offense still moves under Matt Leinhart
4. San Francisco 49ers (9-2) : Stumbled against Baltimore, but still dangerous as owners of the stingiest defnese in the league
5. New England Patriots (8-3) : Best offense in the AFC and looking like the dangerous Patriots that won three Super Bowls in four years
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-3) : With both offense and defense clicking, this is a tough team to beat
7. Detroit Lions (7-4) : A three-game losing streak is knocking the luster off this team, and they have some tough opponents remaining
8. Chicago Bears (7-4) : Bad showing for Hanie's premiere, but he should get better. Still nearly won the game. With a favorable schedule ahead, the Bears still look playoff bound
9. Dallas Cowboys (7-4) : If they can avoid their traditional December slide, they should easily win the NFC East
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : Big Ben is having a good year, and the defense remains stiff

Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : If Detroit can slow their skid, this division can remain on top. Both the Bears and Lions are showing fragility, but we'll see if it lasts.
2. AFC North : They may lack a Top Five team, but with three teams among the top twelve, and the Browns the second-best division cellar (behind Washington), this is a tough division from top to bottom.
3. AFC East : The Dolphins are the only team with a negative difference between points scored and points allowed, and it's shrinking. Only the Patriots are outstanding, but each team is still a threat to win any week, especially since Buffalo's offense finally woke up last week.
4. NFC East : Nobody is dominant, but each team has strengths. Philly needs to play better in the fourth quarter and Washington needs consistency, but they are a threat each week.
5. NFC South : Atlanta's coming back and Carolina is winning some games, so this division looks better.
6. AFC South : Tennessee is improving, and Houston hasn't fallen yet with Leinhart under center, so there is still some hope for this division.
7. NFC West : San Francisco basically won the division this week, and they LOST their game! No other team is worth paying any attention to, although Seattle can sometimes generate a good game.
8. AFC West : No team has a positive point differential. Oakland beat a Hanie-led Bears, but they aren't impressive.

Thursday night:
Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-7) : Seattle can get up for certain games, and this might be one of those, but I'll pick the team with more talent, and that's Philly. EAGLES, 23-17

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons (7-4) at Houston Texans (8-3) : The rejuvenated Matt Ryan offense faces the toughest defense in the league. This will be a real battle! The Falcons are hot right now, and you have to wonder how much Matt Leinhart can really accomplish. If the Texans get behind, they will lose. Even if they lead in the fourth, if they lead by less than a score, Matty Ice could pull this one out. I like the upset here. FALCONS, 24-23

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-8) : The Panthers are looking good, while the Bucs are collapsing. The only thing hurting Carolina is their porous offense, but I don't think the Bucs will be able to exploit that well enough. PANTHERS, 26-20

Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) : The Steelers were swept by Baltimore; they want to sweep Cincy. That won't be an easy task, especially with the way Andy Dalton is leading this offense, but I'll give them a chance. Cincy's defense has sputtered the last couple of weeks, and the way Big Ben and Rashad Mendenhall are playing, that gives Pitt the edge. STEELERS, 23-20

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-9) : Tebow's stats aren't good, but his spirit has inspired the team. The Vikings are already defeated emotionally, so becoming defeated on the field is a short trip. BRONCOS, 24-20

Indianapolis Colts (0-11) at New England Patriots (8-3) : This one won't be pretty. PATS, 34-13

Kansas City Chiefs (4-7) at Chicago Bears (7-4) : I think Hanie will reduce his interceptions, and the stiff defense will frustrate KC. Hanie will gain his first win as a Bear, and that might help boost his confidence. BEARS, 24-13

New York Jets (6-5) at Washington Redskins (4-7) : Washington is in disarray, which is precisely the way the Jets like their opponents. Their defense hasn't been confusing teams much, but they can exploit an already confused team. JETS, 24-13

Oakland Raiders (7-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-8) : Miami is improving, but the Raiders proved that they can still shake up offenses. They will frustrate young Matt Moore, although he is improving. It may not be as easy a win as Oakland would hope. Miami will keep it close enough that the Raiders will STILL have a negative point differential, despite a 67% win percentage. RAIDERS, 23-19

Tennessee Titans (6-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-6) : The Bills offense showed flashes of the brilliance demonstrated earlier in the season, but can they sustain it? The Titans are definitely playing well. Matt Hasselbeck has found some new targets and they've found a new premier runner, so the Titans can move the ball. If the Bills offense doesn't fully come back to early season form, I don't think they can win. TITANS, 26-23

Sunday late games:
Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Cleveland Browns (4-7) : The "old Browns" have held the upper hand against the new Browns since Cleveland rejoined the league, and that will continue. There are grumblings that Colt McCoy will be out of Cleveland come the off-season. RAVENS, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7) : The Cowboys are winning (four in a row), but they've had weak opponents. They get another one. If they can prevent their typical December collapse, they should win this one. COWBOYS, 24-17

Green Bay Packers (11-0) at New York Giants (6-5) : It's interesting how one game can change national opinion. Last week, many of the national analysts were saying the most likely team to beat Green Bay and stop their unbeaten season would be the Giants. After getting slaughtered by New Orleans, another powerful offense, the Giants are now two touchdown underdogs. I won't go that far, but they won't stop the Pack. PACK, 31-20

St Louis Rams (2-9) at San Francisco 49ers (9-2) : The 49ers have a long week to stew and obsess over their loss to Baltimore. If they don't get so upset that they make stupid penalties, they ought to redeem themselves in this game. 49ERS, 24-10

Sunday night:
Detroit Lions (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (8-3) : The Lions defense isn't as stout as they were earlier in the season, and they face the most dangerous offense in the league behind Green Bay. We saw what Green Bay did in Detroit, and New Orleans are 5-1 at home. Make that 6-1. SAINTS, 34-26

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- San Diego Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) : The Jags might have had a chance to win this game, but the front office sabotaged that by firing Jack Del Rio. We know the interim coach will come from the Jags staff, so there is some consistency, but this will affect the team. CHARGERS, 24-16

NCAA 2011 Week 14 picks

2011-11-27T09:40:00.000-05:00

Not many games, but I won't list them all. I will pick more than I usually do

Thurs Dec 1
West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls: The only chance the Mountaineers have for the Big East title is a victory. Even if they miss the title, they can still score a decent bowl game with a 9-3 record. WEST VIRGINIA

Fri Dec 2
A couple of conference title games, including the FIRST EVER Pac-12 title game!

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP -- #22 Ohio Bobcats v Northern Illinois Huskies: First conference game, and I have to pick an upset! Yes, the Bobcats made the Top 25, but it won't last. The Huskies weren't great outside the conference, but they were nearly unbeatable against conference opponents. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP -- UCLA Bruins at #9 Oregon Ducks: This one won't even be close! If the Trojans weren't under probation, the game would be more interesting, featuring a rematch of the Ducks and Trojans. As it is, the Bruins backed in with a 6-6 record and will get slaughtered. OREGON

Sat Dec 3
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers: Neither can win the conference, but the winner becomes bowl eligible. That's a reason to fight! This will be a close game, but I like the way Pitt has been playing in recent weeks. I'll give them the slight nod. PITT

UConn Huskies at #24 Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats will know if a three-way tie happens, or they win the Big East with a win. Either way, expect them to beat down the Huskies, especially if they need to build "style points" in a three-way contest for the conference. CINCY

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP -- #18 Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Houston Cougars: The Golden Eagles have the talent to engineer the upset, but Houston's offense is pretty strong. I have to pick the Cougars, but the Eagles defense won't make it easy. HOUSTON

Iowa State Cyclones at #20 Kansas State Wildcats: Iowa State has had good weeks and bad weeks, but the Wildcats had an extra week to prepare, so don't expect them to slip up. KANSAS STATE

Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams: The Cowboys are already heading to a decent bowl game. A win here gives them a bigger paycheck. WYOMING

UNLV Rebels at #14 TCU Horned Frogs: No BCS busting this year, but the Horned Frogs could still get a Dec 31st bowl. TCU

Troy Trojans at #21 Arkansas State Red Wolves: The Red Wolves already have the Sun Belt title, so their bowl trip is set. Will they rest key players? I don't think so; there's enough time until the bowl game. ARKANSAS STATE

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears: The Longhorns have better outscored their opponents, but I think Baylor will have the upper hand in this game. BAYLOR

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP -- #17 Georgia Bulldogs v #1 LSU Tigers (12-0): Can Georgia pull off the upset of the year? Maybe, but I doubt it. LSU has gotten stronger as the season wore on, so they are as powerful now as they've ever been. LSU

New Mexico Lobos at #7 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos add to their new home winning streak by brutalizing the Lobos. BOISE STATE

BYU Cougars at Hawaii Warriors: Hawaii is tough to beat at home, but I think BYU has the strength to do it. BYU

BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP -- #8 Oklahoma Sooners at #5 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Let's face it, this game basically IS the Big XII Championship, as the winner claims the title. This intense rivalry can go either way, especially this year. Okie State has a potent offense, but Oklahoma/s offense is no slouch. Add in the speed of Oklahoma's defense, and you get an upset potential. I think the Cowboys will pull this one out, but they may actually be behind at one point in the fourth quarter. OKLAHOMA STATE

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP -- #12 Virginia Tech Hokies v #23 Clemson Tigers: Earlier in the season, I would have picked Clemson. Now, however, Clemson is on the skids, while Tech has shown tenacity and strength. VIRGINIA TECH

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP -- #6 Wisconsin Badgers v #11 Michigan State Spartans: In their first meeting, the Spartans defense held the Badgers to one of their lowest point totals of the year. The Spartans, though, won on a lucky last second Hail Mary that bounced off two people before being caught. Wisconsin wants to prove that, without luck, the Spartans can't beat them. They get their chance, and I like their chances. WISCONSIN

NCAA 2011 Week 13 Top 25

2011-11-27T00:04:00.001-05:00

The upsets weren't many, and they didn't affect the Top 25, but they were there. Colorado won their first Pac-12 conference game, and knocked Utah out of division title contention. Boston College shocked Miami. Struggling conference opponents Minnesota and Vanderbilt blew away their competition, Illinois and Wake Forest, respectively. Finally, UConn threw the Big East title race into further chaos by beating Rutgers.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. LSU Tigers (12-0) [1] : Overpowering victory this week
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [2] : Unless LSU is upset in the SEC Championship, it seems like the BCS National Championship game will be a rematch
3. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) [3]
4. Houston Cougars (12-0) [5] : The only other unbeaten team still has the Conference USA title game
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [4] : Their bye week hurt, but they should regain their #4 spot if they beat Oklahoma
6. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) [6] : Next stop - Indianapolis for the first ever Big Ten football championship game
7. Boise State Broncos (10-1) [8]
8. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [7]
9. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [11] : Strong victory against their in-state rival propelled them to the Pac-12 title game
10. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [10]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [12] : They are looking for an upset over Wisconsin, hopefully not relying on a late second Hail Mary this time
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-1) [13] : Slaughtered Virginia to reach the ACC Championship game
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) [9] : Manhandled by LSU
14. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2) [14]
15. USC Trojans (10-2) [15]
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [16] : Big win over Clemson
17. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) [17] : They have to face LSU next
18. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (10-2) [NR]
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) [18]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [22]
21. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-2) [23]
22. Ohio Bobcats (9-3) [25] : Confirmed spot in the MAC Championship
23. Clemson Tigers (9-3) [19]
24. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3) [NR] : Still playing for the Big East title
25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) [20]

Dropped: Penn State Nittany Lions [#21], Tulsa Golden Hurricanes [#24]

Best of the Rest: West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3), Texas Longhorns (7-4), Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (9-3), Temple Owls (8-4), Baylor Bears (8-3), BYU Cougars (8-3)

Conference races
Only two titles remain: The Big XII will be determined by the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State rivalry game. The Big East is a three-way race. Louisville is done, and leads by half a game. If both West Virginia and Cincinnati win, there is a three-way tie for the top, and each have a 1-1 record against the others. If South Florida upsets West Virginia and Cincy wins, they win because they beat Louisville. If West Virginia wins and Cincy loses, Louisville takes the title. The Mountaineers only chance is a major win over South Florida and hope for a better ranking than the other two (which seems likely).

NFL 2011 Week 12 picks

2011-11-23T04:14:00.000-05:00

Top Ten Teams
1. Green Bay Packers (10-0) : They show no signs of slowing down
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-1) : Fiercest D in the league
3. Houston Texans (7-3) : Enjoy the top five while you can, Houston, because with Leinhart under center, it won't last
4. New Orleans Saints (7-3) : 2nd best offense, behind Green Bay
5. New England Patriots (7-3) : Best offense in the AFC
6. Detroit Lions (7-3) : They're stumbling recently, but they're still a threat
7. Chicago Bears (7-3) : This team has it together!
8. Baltimore Ravens (7-3) : They just proved that they rule the AFC North
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-4) : In a reversal of recent years, the Cowboys IMPROVED in November!
10 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
10 (tie). Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

Division rankings
1. NFC North : Three teams in the top ten? This division is clearly the most impressive in the league
2. AFC North : This division ALSO has three teams in the top ten, but we expected the type of power we are seeing; expected it from Baltimore and Pittsburgh, at least
3. AFC East : Buffalo's offense is collapsing, but Miami is improving
4. NFC East : Dallas and the Giants are strong
5. NFC South : Atlanta's looking good, and the Saints offense crush opponents
6. AFC South : Tennessee is improving, but the Texans are on the verge of collapse under Matt Leinhart
7. NFC West : San Fran is the only worthwhile team in this division
8. AFC West : No team with a positive point differential and no team ranked in the top half of the league; this division is a joke

This week's games - Thanksgiving Day games:
Green Bay Packers (10-0) at Detroit Lions (7-3) : You have to pity the Lions. After years of hosting Thanksgiving games when the team stunk, they have a strong enough team to win one this year. Unfortunately, the cruelty of NFL league scheduling pits them against the unbeaten Packers. What a Thanksgiving Day present! PACK, 31-24

Miami Dolphins (3-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-4): Dallas, on the other hand, gets a nice favor. While Miami is improving, the Cowboys are a hot team right now. They always give something extra on the Thanksgiving Day game, and this year they don't even need it. COWBOYS, 27-17

San Francisco 49ers (9-1) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3): The Harbaugh brothers face each other. Baltimore is known for their stout defense, but the 49ers have the better defense. Jim Harbaugh is an offensive guru (which is why Alex Smith is having a banner year), so this defense must be a legacy of his predecessor, former Bear defensive front-runner Mike Singletary. Wherever it came from, it's yielding results. 49ERS, 24-20

Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (3-7) at St Louis Rams (2-8): Arizona is having offensive problems. The Rams haven't been stellar, but they seem in better shape than the stumbling Cardinals. RAMS, 17-13

Buffalo Bills (5-5) at New York Jets (5-5): Okay, I'm convinced. The Bills' offense, the squad that propelled them to their excellent start, has officially proven that they have collapsed. Facing a defense like the Jets, that's bad news. JETS, 23-13

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Indianapolis Colts (0-10): The key to this game is offense: the Panthers can move the ball and the Colts cannot. The weak Colts defense doesn't help them, either. PANTHERS, 28-13

Cleveland Browns (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4): Cincy may have problems beating Pitt and Baltimore, but the Browns are a divisional opponent they CAN overpower. BENGALS, 24-17

Houston Texans (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7): The Texans will tumble with Leinhart under center, but they don't have to worry too much for this game. The Jags offense sputters against a weaker defense; the Texans will stuff them. The defense will likely cause a score through a turnover, which will be needed. TEXANS, 13-10

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4): Atlanta is rising, as their offense finds their wings again. Christian Ponder is still learning the ropes in Minnesota, so the Falcons prevail here. FALCONS, 27-17

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-7) at Tennessee Titans (5-5): With Houston's anticipated decline, the Titans know they have a chance to win the division. They know they need to win to do that, and this game is the start. TITANS, 23-17

Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (6-4): With Cutler out, the Bears are in a dangerous situation. However, they still have a defense that forces turnovers, a stout offensive line to protect their new QB, a running back with one of the top yardage totals of the league, and a dangerous special teams threat in Devin Hester. I think the Bears will win, but it'll be a tough one. BEARS, 23-20

Denver Broncos (5-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-6): Tim Tebow is moving the team, even if his numbers aren't impressive. He has breathed life into the team. Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is bringing his team down. His interceptions and lackluster performance brings down the team. Since the defense isn't strong enough to carry the Chargers, I have to favor the surging Broncos. BRONCOS, 23-20

New England Patriots (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6): Well, all talk about a "Dream Team" has evaporated as the Eagles have failed to live up to that bill. With Vick out, it is now up to Vince Young to lead the team. He had some decent drives last week, but fell short. I expect a similar performance this week. PATS, 27-13

Washington Redskins (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-6): Truthfully, either team could reasonably win this one. I had to pick against a spread, I wouldn't. However, since I'm not a betting man, I'll throw out a guess. Washington is having QB problems and has a lackluster running game. Without much offense, that might give the Seahawks, whose offense is limited but works (sometimes), a chance to win. SEAHAWKS, 17-16

Sunday night:
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6): Coming off a bye, the Steelers are well rested and well prepared for this game, not that they'll need it. The Chiefs are struggling with a new QB, and Big Ben is having one of the best years of his career. STEELERS, 24-13

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: New York Giants (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-3): The Giants offense is okay; they should score against the Saints defense. The key will be how well the Giants defense plays. Normally a strong point of this team, the defense is down this season, and that's a problem when you're facing an offense as potent as New Orleans'. SAINTS, 30-23

NCAA 2011 Week 13 picks

2011-11-20T14:50:00.000-05:00

There are several divisions and conferences already set, but most of the others will be decided this week. In fact, only the Big XII will not be decided. Next week features many conference title games.

Tues Nov 22
Miami Ohio Redhawks at #25 Ohio Bobcats: The Bobcats already won the division title, but they won't slack off. They want to be ready for the conference title game. OHIO

Thurs Nov 24
Texas Longhorns at Texas A&M Aggies: The traditional Thanksgiving night battle has a rarity -- neither team is ranked. That happened last year, too. This could be a close game; both teams are talented. I like the Longhorns chances, but an Aggie victory would not surprise me. TEXAS

Fri Nov 25
The day after Thanksgiving is dominated with college football. We've got some interesting games, including the Game of the Week. I'll work this one in chronological order, starting with...

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies know a division title is on the line here, so I think they'll get up for this game. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Louisville Cardinals at South Florida Bulls: The vaulted Bulls defense has been pathetic this season. They might get up for their last home game, but I think the Cardinals will prove a bit too much and capture their first Big East title in years. LOUISVILLE

#5 Houston Cougars at #24 Tulsa Golden Hurricanes: Tulsa should enjoy their first week in the Top 25, because it may be their last. While Tulsa can capture the Conference USA West title with a win, Houston looks too strong to unseat. At least Houston is being an agreeable unbeaten, and not screaming that they deserve a shot at the BCS title. If they win impressively here, and then win the conference game, they might get a shot after all, considering the number of one loss contenders who lost this week and face tough games in the next two weeks. HOUSTON

Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska has handled the minefield of the Big Ten pretty well in their first season; let's see how the basketball team does. By numbers, the Huskers should win this one. However, Iowa is a team that defies numbers sometimes. Iowa will make it tough, and could pull off the upset, but I think Nebraska's grouond game will maintain control late in the fourth, maintaining a slim lead. NEBRASKA

Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals: Toledo will know at game time whether they have a shot at winning the division. Even if they don't, they want to position themselves for a bowl (especially since some of the SEC's reserved slots are up for grabs), so they'll battle the dangerous Cardinals. TOLEDO

Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia had an extra week to prepare for this game, so I don't expect an upset. WEST VIRGINIA

California Golden Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils: Cal nearly beat Stanford last week. While that was an intense rivalry game (just ask the "stare-down" participants about the intensity of that rivalry!), I think that'll boost the confidence of the Bears, who showed they have the talent to win. The Sun Devils are questioning themselves. Cal should be dangerous next year, as most of their starters return. CAL

GAME OF THE WEEK: #9 Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 LSU Tigers: This is an exciting game. Not only does it decide the SEC West title, but it could impact the BCS title game. LSU is certainly more used to pressure games like this, but Arkansas has an SEC title under their belt, won when a conference title game existed, so they know this type of pressure game. LSU has been impressive recently, but Arkansas has been consistently tough. I acknowledge LSU for what they have created, but wathc out for the Razorbacks. We had lots of upsets last week, especially affecting BCS contenders, and it could continue into this week. LSU

Sat Nov 26
Let's start with the Top 25 who play...

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers: The Auburn defense isn't what is usually is, and the Tide has supposedly fixed their kicking woes that cost them the game against LSU. There is too much going for Alabama here. ALABAMA

#18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #3 Stanford Cardinal: The Irish might have wished Stanford had an eaiser time against Cal. After fighing hard in that game, a game following a loss to Oregon, will force them to adjust their game plan to shore up exposed weaknesses. That won't help Notre Dame pull off the upset. STANFORD

#21 Penn State Nittany Lions at #6 Wisconsin Badgers: The winner of this game wins the Leaders division and advances to the first ever Big Ten football championship game (not counting all of those years that the Ohio State - Michigan game basically served as that!). Wisconsin was an early favorite, but they lost a couple of tough games. However, that offense is potent, more potent than the Lions can stop. Penn State still has some offensive problems, so they won't be able to keep up. WISCONSIN

Iowa State Cyclones at #7 Oklahoma Sooners: Can the Cyclones pull off two upsets in a row? No, I don't think they're that strong, although they did show moves previously unseen this season. OKLAHOMA

Wyoming Cowboys at #8 Boise State Broncos: This game is not for the Mountain West title, but there are decent bowl slots on the line. Wyoming would love to win this game, but it's tough to win at Boise (only TCU has done that in the last three years). BOISE STATE

Ohio State Buckeyes at #10 Michigan Wolverines: It's been quite a few years since Michigan has been favored in this game, but Ohio State is facing a possible 6-6 season while Michigan wants a New Year's Day bowl. They should get it. MICHIGAN

Oregon State Beavers at #11 Oregon Ducks: This in-state rivalry can be intense, but the Ducks have something to prove after their upset loss this past week. OREGON

#12 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats: The Spartans already won the division, but they have to thinking ahead. Specifically, what if they don't win the Big Ten championship game? They want to win to margin a strong bowl game. MICHIGAN STATE

#13 Virginia Tech Hokies at Virginia Cavaliers: The Cavs have proven to be upset winners this season, so the Hokies have to be concerned. They SHOULD win this, but the Cavs are ALSO playing for the division title, so this will be a major battle. VIRGINIA TECH

UCLA Bruins at #15 USC Trojans: This game is always a major battle, and with the division title on the line, the Bruins will be hot. USC has shown that their postseason probation has not diminished their resolve, and they have plenty of resolve to beat the Bruins. USC

#19 Clemson Tigers at #16 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks warned up by beating up on a FCS team. Clemson lost a game but won a division title. Now the question: Since Clemson has won a spot in the ACC title game, will they sit and relax for this game? Against a bitter state rival? Not a chance. This will be a game whose lead changes a few times, but I think Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks will emerge victorious. SOUTH CAROLINA

#17 Georgia Bulldogs at #20 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: This game may not mean much for division titles, but it means a great deal for bragging rights and recruitment in the state of Georgia. Tech has been inconsistent this season, usually winning by "just enough". Georgia surprised people and won their SEC division, so we know they have more toughness than expected. I like that. GEORGIA

Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Purdue needs a win to be bowl eligibile. The Hoosiers are the worst team in the conference, so the Boilermakers should make that. PURDUE

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Illini have lost five games in a row, but this game should redeem their season. ILLINOIS

Best of the rest
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at UConn Huskies: Rutgers doesn't have much of a chance to win the conference, but there are some decent bowl spots open since the SEC won't make all of theirs. I'm not sure the chance of a Big East team claiming many, as they haven't been very impressive this season, but a 9-3 record would help. RUTGERS

Cincinnati Bearcats at Syracuse Orange: Cincy has lost two in a row and basically gave away the Big East title. They want a win to reverse this slide. Syracuse could make that a problem, though. Cincy is the better team, but if they can't stop their mistakes, Syracuse will pull this one out. CINCY

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears: Baylor began the season with an impressive win, and they bookended those last week against Oklahoma. Tech has collapsed, so a win here shouldn't be too hard. BAYLOR

Memphis Tigers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Southern Miss gained their division title by backing in; I'm sure they're not happy about that. They want a strong victory to propel them into the Conference USA title game, and Memphis should offer that chance. SOUTHERN MISS

NCAA Week 12 Top 25

2011-11-20T12:50:00.001-05:00

There were many upsets this past weekend, so many that I will not list them all. I will focus on those that affected ranked teams. It started Thursday evening, as Southern Miss delayed their chance to win the division by losing to UAB. Unbeaten Oklahoma State then likely lost their chance to play in the BCS title game as Iowa State shocked them in a double overtime thriller. The thrills continued on Saturday, as both contenders for the ACC Atlantic division title suffered upsets. Florida State was toppled by Virginia, who stayed alive in the race for the Coastal division title. Clemson fell to NC State, but still won the division thanks to Virginia.

The loss to Oklahoma State opened a door for Oklahoma, but Baylor prompted slammed that door by beating the Sooners for the first time in team history! Now a victory by the Sooners when the two in-state rivals meet would leave every team in the Big XII with at least two losses.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. LSU Tigers (11-0) [2] : The Tigers are one of only two unbeaten teams, making them the undisputed top team
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) [3] : Could the BCS title game be a rematch of the five field goal snoozer from a couple of weeks ago?
3. Stanford Cardinal (10-1) [5] : They survived a struggle against Cal
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [1]
5. Houston Cougars (11-0) [7] : The Cougars are the other remaining unbeated team
6. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [8]
7. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [4]
8. Boise State Broncos (9-1) [9]
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-1) [10] : Their success sets up the Game of the Week
10. Michigan Wolverines (9-2) [11]
11. Oregon Ducks (9-2) [6] : The Ducks tumble but still have a shot to win their division
12. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) [16] : HUGE victory for the Legends leader
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-1) [13]
14. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2) [14]
15. USC Trojans (9-2) [17] : They knocked Oregon from BCS title contention and can't play for the conference title
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) [15]
17. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) [21] : Beast in the SEC East
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-3) [24]
19. Clemson Tigers (9-2) [12]
20. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-3) [22] : Has to face Georgia this week
21. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2) [NR]
22. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [25] : Still battling in the Big XII
23. Arkansas State Red Wolces (9-2) [NR]
24. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-3) [NR]
25. Ohio Bobcats (8-3) [NR]

Dropped: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#18], Southern Miss Golden Eagles [#19], Cincinnati Bearcats [#20], Florida State Seminoles [#23]

In contention: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-3), West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3), Texas Longhorns (6-4), Texas A&M Aggies (6-5), BYU Cougars (7-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (8-3), Baylor Bears (7-3), Iowa State Cyclones (6-4)

Conference races:
ACC Atlantic: Clemson and Florida State each lost, but Clemson still emerged victorious
ACC Coastal: This division will be decided by the Virginia - Virginia Tech game this week

Big XII: As stated last week, this one will be decided Dec 3rd when the Sooners face the Cowboys

Big East: Cincy has pretty much lost this one. Louisville actually holds the edge, as they beat both Rutgers and West Virginia. If Louisville wins this week, they win the conference.

Big Ten Legends: Since they beat Michigan, the Spartans have already won this division, no matter what happens against Indiana
Big Ten Leaders: This one gets decided this weekend, as Penn State faces Wisconsin

Conference USA East: Southern Miss lost this week but still wins the division, because Marshall plays one less conference game.
Conference USA West: This one will be decided by the Tulsa - Houston game

MAC East: Ohio owns the tiebreaker, so they win the division
MAC West: If the Huskies win, they win the division. If the Huskies lose and Toledo wins, it belongs to Toledo

Mountain West: Won by TCU

Pac-12 North: Oregon holds the tiebreaker, so if they win this week they win the division. If the Ducks lose their second in a row, Stanford advances
Pac-12 South: If UCLA beats USC, they win the division (since USC's probation prevents them from playing for the title). However, USC may make that difficult. If the Bruins lose, it opens the door for Utah. They play Colorado, so they aren't likely to lose. Arizona State has a slim chance; both Utah and UCLA would have to lose and the Sun Devils win

SEC East: Won by Georgia
SEC West: This one will be decided by the Game of the Week

Sun Belt: won by Arkansas State
WAC: If Louisiana Tech beats New Mexico State, they win. If Tech loses and Nevada wins, they gain the title

NFL 2011 Week 11 picks

2011-11-16T08:16:00.000-05:00

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (9-0) : Still unbeaten, and clobbering opponents
2. San Francisco 49ers (8-1) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is looking good, too. Frank Gore is one of the most productive runners in the league right now
3. Houston Texans (7-3) : Best team in the AFC, but that may not last with Matt Schaub injured and underachieving Matt Leinhart taking over QB duties
4. New Orleans Saints (7-3) : Offensive output just one point shy of Green Bay, this is a dangerous team to opposing defenses
5. Detroit Lions (6-3) : They're starting to fall, as they are showing weaknesses
6. New England Patriots (6-3) : Despite some miscues, they are still dangerous
7. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) : They've had two ridiculous losses, but never count them out
8. Chicago Bears (6-3) : After two colossal wins, the Bears are a force! Their offense line is the best in years, and that gives Cutler time to work his magic
9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) : Andy Dalton has the offense moving, and the defense compares with Baltimore's
10 (tie). Dallas Cowboys (5-4) : Tony Romo has the offense moving, but we're the time of the season when the Cowboys melt down
10 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) : The Steelers have trouble winning in their division, but they are 6-1 outside

Division rankings
1. NFC North : Now with three teams in the Top Ten, if Detroit can regain their power, this division might produce half of the NFC playoff teams.
2. AFC North : They'd be better if Baltimore wouldn't give away easy games, but this is still a frightening division, especially on defense.
3. AFC East : Miami is improving, and Buffalo still has talent. If the Bills can prevent an outright freefall, this division will be interesting. I don't think they can prevent the AFC North providing both wildcard teams, though.
4. NFC East : Philly is spiralling downwards, and an injured Michael Vick might destroy them. Rex is back to being Rex, so Washington is faltering. If Dallas can hold off their usual late season collapse, this division might still be viable for a couple more weeks. They are on their way down, though.
5. NFC South : New Orleans is carrying this division, but Atlanta has a chance to rebound.
6. AFC South : With Houston likely to fall with Leinhart under center, could Tennessee become the frontrunner?
7. NFC West : Two wins and San Fran wins this division. Seattle is capable of surprising opponents, but basically this division is toothless outside of the Bay City.
8. AFC West : There isn't a single team with a positive point differential in this division. It's the closest, as only one game separates first place from fourth place, but nobody outside of this division really fears these teams.

Thursday night game:
New York Jets (5-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5) : Tim Tebow's numbers stink, but he motivates the team. Denver could surprise, but I'll still pick the Jets. A Rex Ryan-led team is dangerous, no matter how tricky their opponent. JETS, 27-21

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) : The Bills have been in freefall the past two weeks, and the Dolphins have been on an upswing. Matt Moore seems to have found his footing, and he's leading the offense well. I still believe the Bills can right themselves. If they lose here, though, it might be all over for them. BILLS, 27-21

Carolina Panthers (2-7) at Detroit Lions (6-3) : Detroit has faltered against stout defenses, but Carolina's is far from that. Cam Newton has the offense working, but the Panthers get outscored because they can't stop opponents. It'll happen again. LIONS, 30-20

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3) : Here's an interesting battle! These two teams are very evenly matched. This one will likely come down to the final minutes, pehaps the final seconds. Baltimore's ground game gives them a better chance to control the ball late, so I'll go with them. RAVENS, 19-16

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (3-6) : Rex is back to throwing the ball to the other team, and John Beck doesn't release quickly enough. If Romo and the offense doesn't self-destruct, they should win here. COWBOYS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-6) : Boy, this game could really go either way. Blaine Gabbert is coming on for the Jags, and Maurice Jones-Drew is returning to form. The Browns have some weapons, too, but I like what Jacksonville can do. JAGS, 17-13

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-7) : Christian Ponder is still learning, and the Raiders love to attack a weak opponent. RAIDERS, 23-17

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-6) at Green Bay Packers (9-0) : The 2011 edition of the Battle of the Bays will be pretty one-sided, as the Pack are moving the ball quite well while Josh Freeman and the Bucs are inconsistent and out of rhythm. PACK, 35-17

Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1) : The stiff 49ers defense will frustrate John Skelton, while the offense will continue to get better. 49ERS, 24-13

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Chicago Bears (6-3) : Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense have been struggling of late. Worse, they play a coordinated passing attack, which is exactly the type of offense the Bears defense breaks up. The Bears are poised to continue their streak of poweful victories, securing themselves a spot among the top teams in the league. BEARS, 27-17

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at St Louis Rams (2-7) : The Rams are winners to two in a row, but Seattle tends to get "up" for important games. Nothing is more important than a divisional battle. The Seahawks will take this one. SEAHAWKS, 20-16

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Atlanta Falcons (5-4) : Despite some woes, the Falcons still have lots of talent. Most of it is on the offensive side of things, but the Titans offense has sputtered, so all the Falcons have to do is outscore them. They are certainly capable of that. FALCONS, 24-20

Sunday night:
Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at New York Giants (6-3) : Without Vick, how effective will the Eagles' offense be? Vince Young has not been very impressive in his stints replacing Vick, and he doesn't move the way Vick does. The offense will need to be revamped, which I don't think they'll have enough time to do before this game. Eli and the Giants offense are moving quite well, which makes things worse. At least the Eagles won't have a fourth quarter lead to blow -- they'll already be behind. GIANTS, 27-16

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3) : The Pats haven't been stellar recently, but they are still a dangerous team. Dismissing Albert Haynesworth and soliciting trades for Ochocinco eliminates the discipline problems and distractions that might be affecting team unity, and this team is dangerous when they are united. PATS, 24-16

NCAA 2011 Week 12 picks

2011-11-13T10:47:00.000-05:00

Once again we start the week with the MAC

Tuesday, Nov 15
Ball State Cardinals at Northern Illinois Huskies: A Huskies win here knocks Ball State from any division title possibilities, and solidifies their bid. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Wed Nov 16
Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons: Ohio seals their division title bid with a win here. OHIO

Thurs Nov 17
North Carolina Tar Heels at #13 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies continue their battle for the division title. This should be an easy victory to propel them into their showdown against Virginia next week. VIRGINIA TECH

#19 Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UAB Blazers: Southern Miss wins the division with this victory. SOUTHERN MISS

Friday Nov 18
#1 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones would love to play spoiler, but the Cowboys offense is too strong. I think the Cowboys will be playing in the BCS Championship Game, provided they don't stumble against Oklahoma. OKLAHOMA STATE

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas: Toledo can continue to pressure Northern Illinois with a win here. TOLEDO

Top 25
#2 LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels: This should be an easy win for the top SEC team. LSU

Georgia Southern at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama gets to beat up on a top FCS team. ALABAMA

#4 Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears: Baylor might give them a serious challenge, although they haven't been as dominant as they were at the start of the season. The Sooners can use this as a good warmup for the Cowboys. OKLAHOMA

California Golden Bears at #5 Stanford Cardinal: Cal has played spoiler before, but they don't have the offense of the Ducks, so Stanford should get back to their winning ways. STANFORD

SMU Mustangs at #7 Houston Cougars: Houston continues to be an unbeaten team with no chance of being a BCS Buster. HOUSTON

#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini have lost four after starting 6-0, and this one will be another loss. The Illini need to salvage their season with a win next week. WISCONSIN

#9 Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs: The Broncos no longer have a shot at the BCS Championship Game, and likely no chance at the Mountain West title, but they are still playing for a good bowl game. They will get back on track in this game. BOISE STATE

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #10 Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks need a win to possibly steal the division title from LSU. The Bulldogs can be a tough team to beat, but Arkansas seems to have a team of talented tools this season. ARKANSAS

#18 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #11 Michigan Wolverines: This contest decides who can challenge Michigan State for the division title. Nebraska hasn't been overly dominant in their conference games, but they tend to play well. Michigan has been more impressive in their victories, and it's tough for visitors to play in the Big House, especially if they aren't used to it. MICHIGAN

#12 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolf Pack: A win here clinches the division title for Clemson. They won't let that slip away. CLEMSON

Colorado State Rams at #14 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU wins the conference with a win here. With the state of the Rams, that shouldn't be a problem. TCU

The Citadel at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks: There are three FCS v FBS games this week - quite a few for this late in the season. SOUTH CAROLINA

Indiana Hoosiers at #16 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans play the weakest team in the conference. Nice easy win here. MICHIGAN STATE

#20 Cincinnait Bearcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: This is a "do or die" game for Cincy's chances at the conference title. A loss here puts them practically out of the race. Rutgers is good, but too inconsistent. I think Cincy will diagnose what happened last week and bounce back. CINCY

Kentucky Wildcats at #21 Georgia Bulldogs: Georgia has already won their division, but they won't slow down. GEORGIA

#22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils: With basketball season beginning, the Duke fans attention shift to a winning team. Good thing, as this won't be a pretty game. GEORGIA TECH

Virginia Cavaliers at #23 Florida State Seminoles: The Cavs need a victory to keep pace with the Hokies, but the Seminoles are pressing Clemson. They are also chasing a good bowl game. I'd love to see the upset, as I'd like to see the Cavs play in the conference title game, but I'm afraid the Seminoles are too good. FLORIDA STATE

Boston College Eagles at #24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: BC bounced back last week, but the Irish will slap them back down. NOTRE DAME

#25 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns: Amazingly, all Top 25 teams are playing this week! The Wildcats need a win to remain in the Top 25. They might, but Texas is also strong. This will be a massive battle, which could go to overtime. Can K-State win TWO lengthy games in a row? Maybe. KANSAS STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: #17 USC Trojans at #6 Oregon Ducks: Oregon puts themselves in the Pac-12 title game with a win here. Truthfully, given USC's postseason ban, this is truly the Pac-12 Championship Game. USC plays well in championships, but I think Oregon's offense will prove too much for the Trojans. OREGON

Best of the rest
New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys are hoping to maintain pace with TCU for the conference title. Even if they can't, they want a good record for a good bowl game. Wyoming is having a good year, and they certainly have the tools to overwhelm the Lobos. WYOMING

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Arkansas State has already won the Sun Belt, but they want to finish with an unbeaten conference record. Middle Tennessee is one of the bottom teams, so they should win this one. ARKANSAS STATE

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas A&M Aggies: Kansas fought hard last week, but the Aggies are still a strong team, despite a 5-5 record. TEXAS A&M

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UTEP Miners: Tulsa is chasing Houston, and they want to remain unbeaten in conference play. They should be able to do that against the struggling Miners. TULSA

NCAA 2011 Week 11 Top 25

2011-11-13T09:49:00.000-05:00

Plenty of upsets this week, including the collapse of two unbeaten teams. Boise State experienced deja vu as they lost to TCU on a two-point converstion and missed field goal. Stanford was simply outplayed by Oregon as they fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. West Virginia ensured Cincy has a rough road to capture the Big East crown, while Purdue pulled off an amazing overtime victory over Ohio State. Missouri toppled Texas from the ranks of the Top 25, while Boston College gained only their second conference victory. Lastly, Colorado gained their first Pac-12 victory in the largest offensive display they've had all season.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0) [3] : The Cowboys leapfrogged LSU with an utter destruction of Texas Tech
2. LSU Tigers (10-0) [2]
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) [5] : After a slow start, they clobbered Mississippi State
4. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6] : Up two positions in a bye week? THAT'S the result of Upset Saturday!
5. Stanford Cardinal (9-1) [1]
6. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [8]
7. Houston Cougars (10-0) [7]
8. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) [9]
9. Boise State Broncos (8-1) [4] : No BCS busting this year!
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-1) [10] : One of their most impressive victories of the season
11. Michigan Wolverines (8-2) [13] : Scored more points against my Illini than anyone else this season
12. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [11] : Showed signs of weakness
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-1) [12]
14. TCU Horned Frogs (8-2) [17] : Colossal win over Boise
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) [15]
16. Michigan State Spartans (8-2) [16]
17. USC Trojans (8-2) [20] : That postseason ban must be starting to burn
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) [19]
19. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (9-1) [21] : A missed extra point saved them
20. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2) [14] : Still the best in what is a wide open Big East race
21. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) [25] : Won the SEC East with a colossal beatdown of Auburn
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-3) [18]
23. Florida State Seminoles (7-3) [26]
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3) [NR]
25. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) [24] : Outlasted A&M in the conference's first quadruple overtime

Dropped: Texas Longhorns [#22], Penn State Nittany Lions [#23]

Top contenders: Ohio Bobcats (7-3), Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (7-3), Texas A&M Aggies (5-5), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-3)

Conference races
ACC Atlantic: Clemson holds a one-game edge and the tiebreaker over Florida State. All they have to do is win this week
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech holds the lead, but Virginia is hot on their heels. Unless the Cavs lose this week, this one will be decided when the two in-state rivals battle on Nov 26

Big XII: The Cowboys hold a one-game advantage over Oklahoma. This one will be decided on Dec 3

Big East: Cincy holds a one-game lead, but they face Rutgers this week. If they lose, the advantage in a three-way swings to West Virginia, who beat both Cincy and Rutgers. Louisville and Pittsburgh have chances, too, and UConn is still mathematically in it. This conference is wide open.

Big Ten Legends: Michigan State holds the lead with a favorable schedule, with games against Indiana and Northwestern remaining. It looks like they will win. Nebraska is hoping to win out and Northwestern beats them, as they hold the tiebreaker.
Big Ten Leaders: Penn State holds the lead, but they still play Ohio State and Wisconsin. If the Badgers win out, they win the division.

Conference USA East: Southern Miss leads by two games. Marshall beat them, so all the Golden Eagles need to win this week to capture the title.
Conference USA West: Both Houston and Tulsa remain unbeaten in the conference. Even if Tulsa loses this week, if they upset Houston next week they win the division. This one will be decided Nov 26

MAC East: Ohio leads, and they've beaten Temple and Kent State. Miami Ohio is the only team with a viable shot. They need to win both of their remaining games (one against Ohio) in order to do it, though.
MAC West: Northern Illinois and Toledo are tied atop the division. The Huskies beat the Rockets, so Northern Illinois holds the tiebreaker. That means they must do at least as well as Toledo over the next two weeks.

Mountain West: TCU beat Boise and Wyoming. Holding the tiebreaker means they win the conference with one win in their next two weeks.

Pac-12 North: Oregon made this interesting. All the Ducks need to do is win one more game.
Pac-12 South: USC leads, but they cannot play in the title game. That makes it an interesting contest among UCLA, Utah, and Arizona State. Each of them hold a 1-1 record against the other two, so a tiebreaker makes things interesting. Utah is one game behind the other two, though. UCLA holds the tiebreaker over the Sun Devils, but USC could play spoiler. It could come down to that, as both UCLA and Arizona State seem likely to win their games this week.

SEC East: won by Georgia
SEC West: Unless Arkansas loses this week, this game will be decided by the LSU-Arkansas contest in two weeks

Sun Belt: won by Arkansas State
WAC: If Nevada beats Lousiana Tech this week, the conference is theirs.

NFL 2011 Week 10 picks

2011-11-10T08:21:00.000-05:00

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (8-0) : The Pack look unbeatable - they are yet to play a close game
2. Detroit Lions (6-2) : Owners of the best defense in the division? Strangely, yes
3. New Orleans Saints (6-3) : Despite a couple of bad games, Brees has this offense rolling; it's tops in the league
4. San Francisco 49ers (7-1) : Jim Harbaugh is known as an offensive coach, but the defense is tops in the league
5. Houston Texans (6-3) : Their defense is strong, but their offense has been the story recently
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-2) : They swept the Steelers, which they've never done before
7. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) : This team has stats nearly identical to Baltimore's
8. Buffalo Bills (5-3) : The best of the three-way tie atop the AFC East, at least in terms of point differential
9. New England Patriots (5-3) : Two consecutive losses isn't good, but the Pats are still a force
10. New York Jets (5-3) : The defense is toughening up, which makes them a tough opponent again

Division rankings
1. NFC North : With the two best teams in the league and a Chicago team on a two-game winning streak, this division is strong
2 (tie). AFC East : Three top ten teams and a no-longer winless Dolphins team makes this the toughest division in the AFC
2 (tie). AFC North : Except for this one, of course. With the two toughest defenses in the AFC and Andy Dalton doing great things with Cincy's offense, this division has captured everyone's attention
4. NFC East : They may not have any top ten teams, but each of these teams are a threat on any given Sunday
5. NFC South : Atlanta's back on track, and any division with the Saints' powerful offense is a threat
6. AFC South : Houston is the only team worth attention
7. AFC West : The only division lacking a team with a winning record
8. NFC West : While not mathematically clinched, the 49ers win this division, simply because no other team is close to playing well

Thursday night football is back, and it opens with an intense division rivalry!

Thursday game
Oakland Raiders (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-4): The Raiders are always a threat in the division, but Rivers and the offense seems to be righting the ship. They nearly engineered a comeback against the unbeaten Packers, for heaven's sake! I have to give the nod to them. CHARGERS, 27-23

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (2-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5): The Eagles haven't been consistent, but they've done better than Arizona. There is a revenge factor for Cards QB Kevin Kolb, but I still think Philly will coast. EAGLES, 26-16

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4): The Cowboys' defense isn't strong enough to significantly slow Buffalo. The key will be whether the offense keeps moving without collapsing. I think the Cowboys know there is too much at stake to slack off, so they'll at least keep scoring, but it won't be enough. BILLS, 30-21

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4): The winning streak is over for KC, and Tim Tebow is starting to post the numbers the Denver fans hoped. If last week wasn't a fluke, the Broncos could win this one. I'll go for the upset. BRONCOS, 23-17

Houston Texans (6-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-5): This may not be as easy for Houston as they think, but their offense is better than the Bucs', and their defense is slightly better, so things look favorable for them. TEXANS, 24-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-9): Neither one of these teams are doing well on either side of the ball. This won't be a pretty game, but I'll pick the Jags just to see what happens if Indy has top claim on Andrew Luck. JAGS, 17-13

New Orleans Saints (6-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-3): Atlanta's offense is starting to get back on track, but the key is whether their defense can slow the behemoth that is the Saints offense. I don't think so. SAINTS, 30-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-2): Pittsburgh has lost all of their division games this season. They have only faced Baltimore, but the Bengals look fairly similar this year. If anything, Andy Dalton's offense is more potent. Pitt might win, but I have to favor the Bengals. BENGALS, 26-21

St Louis Rams (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (3-5): The Browns haven't been impressive this season, but the Rams have basically stunk. BROWNS, 20-13

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-6): Cam Newton and the Panthers offense is working, it's the defense that has killed them. Tennessee doesn't have a strong offense. Is this a game the Panthers can win? I'd love to say so, but somehow the Titans find ways to win. I'll pick them, but watch for Carolina to get their third win. TITANS, 20-17

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (1-7): The Dolphins won their first game of the season, but don't expect a two-game winning streak. John Beck is inconsistent, but he can move the Redskins. The defense hasn't been strong recently, but injuries account for part of that. Replacements are getting better, and some injured players might return. I have to give Washington a chance to right themselves. REDSKINS, 16-13

Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-6): This one won't be in doubt. RAVENS, 27-13

Detroit Lions (6-2) at Chicago Bears (5-3): Chicago's defense will hound Matt Stafford, and Cutler still has intriguing targets. Chicago will keep this game close, but unfortunately the Lions are too strong for them. LIONS, 27-23

New York Giants (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (7-1): The Giants are improving, and look like the strongest team in the NFC East right now, but they face the tough 49ers defense. This defense looks like the Giants defenses of old. Manning and the offense will be thoroughly challenged, and might put the Giants defense on the field too long. A weary defense makes mistakes, and Alex Smith is getting a good enough sense of the field to capitalize on that. 49ERS, 23-17

Sunday night
New England Patriots (5-3) at New York Jets (5-3): These games are always exciting, and frequently high-scoring extravaganzas. The Jets defense is toughening, as they held the Bills to 11 points last week. However, I still think the Pats will put up the points, and make this one another exciting offensive game. PATS, 30-27

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Minnesota Vikings (2-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-0): This will be the most one-sided game of the week, as the league-leading Pack face a team still getting used to a rookie QB. PACK, 30-13

NCAA 2011 Week 11 picks

2011-11-06T17:24:00.000-05:00

It's November, and we're facing the home stretch for many teams. Some division and conference leads (even a couple of titles!) are on the line this week, so let's get started...

Tuesday, Nov 8
Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons: A Huskies win helps solidify their lead in the MAC West. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets: Toledo needs to win to maintain pace against Northern Illinois. The Broncos won't make it easy, but I think Toledo will prevail. TOLEDO

Wed Nov 9
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Temple Owls: This is basically the battle for second place in the MAC East. Both teams will battle hard. I think the Owls have a better ball control offense, and that could become crucial late in a close game. TEMPLE

Thurs Nov 10
Ohio Bobcats at Central Michigan Chippewas: A Bobcats win further solidifies their MAC East lead, especially if Temple wins on Tuesday. OHIO

#12 Virginia Tech Hokies at #18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: A Hokies win gives them a strong foothold on the ACC Coastal lead. Virginia is rooting for Georgia Tech, as the Cavs already beat them. These teams will battle hard, but I like the talent on the Hokies squad just a bit more. This will be a tough road game, though, so watch for an upset. VIRGINIA TECH

#7 Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave: Tulane is pitiful this year, so this is an easy win to continue propelling Houston to the Conference USA championship game. HOUSTON

Friday Nov 11
South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange: Neither team can win the Big East, but this is a pride game for the Bulls, who are yet to win a conference game. I'm afraid they'll have to keep looking. SYRACUSE

Top 25
#8 Oregon Ducks at #1 Stanford Cardinal: Runner-up for Game of the Week, this game essentially determines the winner of the Pac-12 North. Oregon had a week off to prepare for this game, but the Beavers may have stuck it to their in-state rivals. By challenging Stanford this week, they will review and revise their game plan, setting up a tougher approach against the Ducks. STANFORD

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #2 LSU Tigers: The Tigers get a easy battle after the defensive tug-of-war last week. This game might actually hurt them in the BCS computer rankings. Can Stanford or Oklahoma State grab the BCS #1 spot? LSU

#3 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Tech can play tough, but the Cowboys offense is too strong. Even if Tech gets their offense rolling like it has in previous seasons, they won't keep pace with the Cowboys. OKLAHOMA STATE

#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Tide want a strong performance to wash away the sting of the close loss to LSU. The Bulldogs are a good team this season, but they will struggle against the defensive colossus of the Tide. ALABAMA

#9 Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers have already engineered one conference upset this year; I think that's their limit. WISCONSIN

Tennessee Volunteers at #10 Arkansas Razorbacks: I don't think the Razorbacks will experience a letdown after their strong defeat of South Carolina. ARKANSAS

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #11 Clemson Tigers: Wake is the only team who can up-seat Clemson for the division title. I don't see them doing it. CLEMSON

#13 Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Wolverines come in angry after a close loss to the Hawkeyes. They want a win to get back into the running for the Legends division title. Honestly, I don't think they'll do it. Illinois had a bye week to get healthy and prepare for this game, their defense is fierce, and they are at home. Illinois has played much better at home this season than on the road. They sent this game to three overtimes last year, and that was in the Big House. I pick an upset against their hated rivals to return Illinois to their winning ways. ILLINOIS

West Virginia Mountaineers at #14 Cincinnati Bearcats: It hasn't been the prettiest conference season for the Mountaineers, and it gets rougher. Cincy hasnt' been overly dominant against most of their opponents, but they are tenacious scrappers. The Mountaineers are too used to having things go easy in the Big East - I don't think they know what went wrong against Louisville. That confusion will carry over to this game. CINCY

Florida Gators at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks want to bounce back from their loss to Arkansas, and Steve Spurrier wants to beat his old school. More importantly, a win here helps them in the divisional race, as this is their last SEC game (games against the Citadel and Clemson remain). SOUTH CAROLINA

#16 Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa upset the Wolverines, and they host the other Michigan team. I'm not sure they have two consecutive upsets in them, especially since these teams are composed differently. Michigan focusses on offense, especially the spread. Michigan State is more defensively oriented; their offense is run-based. The Hawkeyes are susceptible to a tough defense, which should swing the game in favor of the Spartans. MICHIGAN STATE

#19 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #23 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State does not have the offense to outscore the Cornhuskers, but they have a tough defense. This is the type of defense which should be a challenge to the 'Huskers. They got past Ohio State and Michigan State, but the Buckeyes were reeling then and the Spartans were a bit over-confident. Penn State knows what's at stake, and they don't get complacent. PENN STATE

Washington Huskies at #20 USC Trojans: The Huskies still have a mathematical chance for the North division, but it's basically a pipe dream. That won't stop them from playing for a good bowl game. The Trojans have nothing to play for except pride and draft position, and that's propelled them so far this season. It's always tough to play the Trojans in the Colisseum, and that is true this season as well. USC

Central Florida Golden Knights at #21 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: It's a flood of gold this week! Southern Miss needs this victory, as Marshall beat them and hold a tiebreaker over them. The Eagles are proving tough to beat after a slow start in the conference, and Central Florida has shown too many holes to predict an upset. SOUTHERN MISS

#22 Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers: Texas may have two losses, but the Big XII is the most powerful conference this year. The Longhorns would be the conference leader in most other conferences, so don't let their record fool you. TEXAS

Texas A&M Aggies at #24 Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats offense came alive last week. If they don't fall back, they should win this game fairly easily. However, the Aggies are a dangerous team, despite three losses, so this will be a struggle. The Wildcats might pull it out, but I wouldn't be surprised by an Aggies win. KANSAS STATE

Auburn Tigers at #25 Georgia Bulldogs: South Carolina fans find themselves rooting for Auburn this week, as the Bulldogs put their division-leading record on the line. Auburn had an extra week to prepare for this game, which makes them dangerous. I've already picked two upsets this week, but I guess I haven't used up my quota. AUBURN

GAME OF THE WEEK: #17 TCU Horned Frogs at #4 Boise State Broncos: The Mountain West title is on the line here. TCU is a strong team, but Boise has consistently knocked down opponents this season. Granted, TCU is the toughest opponent they've faced, but I still like their chances to win this. BOISE STATE

Best of the Rest
Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles: This is an intense rivalry game that could go either way, but the Seminoles are playing well. Miami knows a loss takes them out of contention for the division, but the situation is more important for Florida State. If Wake loses to Clemson, Florida State can take sole possession of second place in the division. If Wake upsets Clemson, will that deflate Florida State, since they have lost to both teams and a three-way tie for the division hurts them? I think the coaching staff will ensure the players do not have updates from that game so that they can focus on this one. FLORIDA STATE

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks: Baylor should roll over the struggling Jayhawks. BAYLOR

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves: The winner of this game captures the Sun Belt title. Both have been tough competitors this season, but the Red Wolves have been more impressive. Given that this is a home game for them, I definitely have to favor them. ARKANSAS STATE

Maryland Terrapins at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: No matter what uniform the 'Terps wear, the Irish should overpower them. NOTRE DAME

NCAA 2011 Week 10 Top 25 and conference races

2011-11-06T15:48:00.000-05:00

I begin my first analysis of conference and division title races, as there are some crucial games this week that can determine who plays for conference titles. Those analyses are always difficult, as you have to consider the possibility of upsets. God knows that had to be considered this past week, as there were several upsets, many which affected Top 25 teams. The Big Ten saw two of those, as both Michigan and Nebraska fell. The Wolverines lost to Iowa, who at least have a reasonable shot for their division title. Nebraska lost to Northwestern, who is basically out of contention for the Legends division title. They beat Nebraska in a similar fashion to the way Wisconsin beat them - overwhelming them with offense. That seems counter-intuitive, as that's the way many Big XII teams play. We figured the tougher Big Ten defenses would be the Cornhuskers' undoing, yet they've been able to find ways to move the ball.

The eastern part of the country featured most of the other upsets. Louisville continued to battle for the Big East title by beating West Virginia, and UConn played spoiler to Syracuse, knocking them from a shot at the title. The ACC wasn't immune to upsets, either, as NC State beat their in-state rival and killing whatever remote chances the Tar Heels might have had for a shot at the title.

The Pac-12 saw the other upset, as UCLA beat Arizona State to take a tiebreaker lead over them in the South division. With USC on probation, it doesn't matter whether the Bruins beat their hated rivals or not. If they win out, or at least match Arizona State's remaining conference record, the first Pac-12 South title goes to UCLA.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (9-0) [1] : As expected, Oregon State gave the Cardinal some problems, but Stanford remains unbeaten and on top
2. LSU Tigers (9-0) [3] : LSU won the defensive battle that saw NO touchdowns scored by either team
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0) [4] : The Cowboys won the shoot-out against Kansas State and placed themselves in good position to play in the BCS National Championship Game, provided they can get past Oklahoma
4. Boise State Broncos (8-0) [5]
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) [2] : They may have lost to LSU, but they're still the best one-loss team in the country
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6] : And here's the 2nd best one-loss team in the country
7. Houston Cougars (9-0) [7]
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [8]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [9] : A strong victory seals the title of best two-loss team in the country
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-1) [14] : They got past Stever Spurrier and the Gamecocks, but they still have tough games ahead
11. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [11]
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1) [12]
13. Michigan Wolverines (7-2) [9] : A tough loss to Iowa sends them to Champaign
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) [16]
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [10] : Couldn't find a rhythm against Arkansas
16. Michigan State Spartans (7-2) [19] : The losses by Michigan and Nebraska put them back atop the Legends division
17. TCU Horned Frogs (7-2) [17]
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2) [18]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) [13]
20. USC Trojans (7-2) [20]
21. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (8-1) [NR] : The leader in the OTHER division of Conference USA gains a foothold in the Top 25
22. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [NR]
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) [23]
24. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [22] : Wouldn't go away against the Cowboys
25. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) [NR] : The Dawgs now lead the SEC East

Dropped off: West Virginia Mountaineers [#21], Arizona State Sun Devils [#24], Texas A&M Aggies [#25]

Top contenders: Florida State Seminoles (6-3), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-3), Ohio State Buckeyes (6-3), Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3), Ohio Bobcats (6-3), Arkansas State Warhawks (7-2), Florida Gators (5-4)

Conference races
ACC Atlantic: unbeaten Clemson rules this division. All they need to do is beat Wake Forest this week and they have the division title
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech leads this one, but they still must face both Georgia Tech and Virginia, the two teams tied for second place. Miami has a remote chance.

Big XII: Unbeaten Oklahoma State holds the lead, but they still must face Oklahoma on Dec 3rd. It may take until that week to determine a champ, as neither is likely to lose again (Oklahoma facing Baylor on Nov 19th is the only opponent with less than four conference losses). Kansas State and Texas have outside chances, but since both Oklahoma and the Cowboys hold tiebreakers over them, their chances are small.

Big East: Cincy holds the lead, and the tiebreaker over runner-up Louisville. The Cardinals better control their destiny, though, as they have faced (and beaten) both West Virginia and Rutgers, the only other teams with a reasonable chance at the title. Cincy still needs to face both of them.

Big Ten Legends: Michigan State leads this division, and only Iowa remains as a tough challenge. They win this week, and they are likely to win the division. Michigan, Nebraska, and Iowa each have two conference losses, so an Iowa upset puts THEM in the driver's seat, with wins over Michigan and the Spartans and a battle against Nebraska to close the season.
Big Ten Leaders: Penn State leads the division by two games, but they must still play both Ohio State and Wisconsin, who are tied for second place. They also face Nebraska this week. That's three tough games remaining. Wisconsin actually has the better schedule (Minnesota and Illinois before closing by hosting Penn State), so I like their chances to win. Ohio State still has Penn State and arch-rival Michigan.

Conference USA East: Southern Miss leads and has beaten their toughest opposition. Two of their three remaining games are against the worst teams in the division. A win this week basically assures them the title.
Conference USA West: Both Houston and Tulsa are unbeaten in division, and they close the season against each other. Both have relatively easy games until then, so the Nov 26th matchup will likely determine the winner.

MAC East: Ohio leads, and has two fairly easy contests until the face co-leader Miami Ohio on Nov 22nd. The Redhawks need to get past Temple this week to remain co-leader.
MAC West: Northern Illinois leads, and holds the tiebreaker over co-leading Toledo. Both face almost the same teams, so the Huskies look likely to take this.

Mountain West: Although Wyoming has lost only one conference game, this contest will basically be decided by the winner of this week's TCU - Boise State contest.

Pac-12 North: If Stanford beats Oregon this week, they clinch the title. Oregon needs to beat Stanford and then one of either USC and arch-rival Oregon State.
Pac-12 South: USC is ineligible for the title, so the tiebreaker goes to UCLA. The Bruins face conference newcomers Utah (2-4 conference record) and Colorado before closing at USC, so they stand a good chance to take the title. The Trojans can play spoiler if Arizona State wins out.

SEC East: Division leader Georgia and runner-up South Carolina are the only ones who can win it at this point. Georgia lost to the Gamecocks, so South Carolina has a tiebreaker to use, if needed. The Gamecocks have only one conference game remaining, this week against Florida. Georgia has Auburn and Kentucky remaining. The Wildcats won't be much of a challenge, but if Auburn upsets them this week and South Carolina wins, this division belongs to South Carolina.
SEC West: LSU leads and has beaten both Alabama and Auburn. If they beat Ole Miss next week, the season ender against Arkansas could decide the division. LSU could already win it if Mississippi State upsets the Razorbacks on Nov 19th.

Sun Belt: This week's contest between Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette decides the title

WAC: Nevada leads, but still has four conference games remaining. This conference has too many candidates still to discuss yet.

NFL 2011 Week 9 picks

2011-11-04T09:29:00.000-04:00

As ever, let's start with the rankings...

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)
2. Detroit Lions (6-2) : A strong performance last weekend propels them back to #2!
3. San Francisco 49ers (6-1) : The team with the second best record continues to torment opponents with the best defense in the league
4. New Orleans Saints (5-3) : An uncharacteristic poor performance by Drew Brees allowed St Louis their first victory of the season
5. Buffalo Bills (5-2) : Best team in the AFC! Who would have thunk it?
6. Houston Texans (5-3) : A dangerous defense and an offense that's working, too
7. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) : Best defense in the AFC
8. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) : With a better offense AND better defense than Pittsburgh, the Bengals will be a tough divisional opponent
9. New England Patriots (5-2)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With the two best teams in the league, Chicago holding their own, and Minnesota improving, this is a tough division
2. AFC North : Three Top Ten teams, three teams with only two losses and Cleveland only one game down from .500. Recordwise, this is the best division
3. AFC East : Two of the top offenses makes this division exciting
4. NFC East : Records aren't the greatest here, but this division produces some interesting games
5. NFC South : All of these teams can still be a threat to opponents
6. AFC South : This division is not as interesting without Indy doing well, but at least Houston gets to shine
7. AFC West : With San Diego's collapse and KC's four-game winning streak, this division has opened up, but their teams are too streaky and inconsistent
8. NFC West : San Fran is the only team of interest here

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-8) : The Falcons have struggled offensively, but not as badly as the Colts have. Through in a porous Colts defense and Matt Ryan and company can boost their numbers this game. FALCONS, 27-13

Cleveland Browns (3-4) at Houston Texans (5-3) : With Adrian Foster feeling better, the Texans offense gets a great boost. That doesn't help Cleveland, whose sporadic offense will face a brick wall against the stingy Texans' defense. TEXANS, 23-13

Miami Dolphins (0-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) : A four-game winning streak after an 0-3 start indicates that KC has fixed their problems and can start to fulfill their preseason promise. CHIEFS, 23-13

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2) : The Jets defense isn't the collossus it has been the previous few years, so the Bills high-powered offense will move. Sanchez and the Jets will attempt to keep up, but they won't. BILLS, 27-23

San Francisco 49ers (6-1) at Washington Redskins (3-4) : The 49ers have the better defense and the smoother offense, as John Beck gets used to things. In a couple of weeks the Redskins might be a force, but not this week. 49ERS, 20-13

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4) : All the national analysts are harping on Tony Romo again, but they've done that each of the last four years, and Romo rebounds. Against a struggling Seahawks team, Romo and the Cowboys should rebound nicely. COWBOYS, 21-17

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-3) : Drew Brees had a bad week last week, and the Bucs exploit teams having a bad day. However, it is rare that Brees has two bad weeks in a row, so I think the Saints will not give the Bucs a chance to take control. SAINTS, 27-21

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-3) : Tennessee's struggling offense against the stingy Bengals defense? This game isn't in doubt. The only question is how much offense will the Bengals generate? BENGALS, 26-20

Denver Broncos (2-5) at Oakland Raiders (4-3) : The Broncos are sticking with Tim Tebow, but that makes him a target for the Raiders rushing defense. Tebow can't throw on the run well, and he'll be running for his life in this game. RAIDERS, 23-16

Green Bay Packers (7-0) at San Diego Chargers (4-3) : Philip Rivers is struggling right now, which does not help the Chargers in their attempt to unseat the unbeaten Packers. I think Rivers and the Chargers will get up for this game, but it won't be enough. PACK, 31-20

New York Giants (5-2) at New England Patriots (5-2) : Eli Manning is posting good numbers right now, but Brady's are better. The Giants defense is good, but not as threatening as they've been in years past. This will be a close game, but I have to favor the Pats. PATS, 27-23

St Louis Rams (1-6) at Arizona Cardinals (1-6) : I'm not picking this game, because there is one crucial variable - will Kevin Kolb play? His replacement has no experience, so the recovering Sam Bradford and the Rams should win if Kolb is sidelined. If Kolb plays, though, I think the Cards can generate enough offense to overcome the wimpy Rams defense.

Sunday night
Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) : The Steelers get a chance to avenge the pasting administered by the Ravens earlier this season. Then, Big Ben was struggling, and the Steelers offense was a mess. Now Ben is posting impressive numbers, the running game is working, and the defense is better rested, since they have more time off the field. This will be a close defensive game, but the Steelers will gain the victory. STEELERS, 21-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Chicago Bears (4-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) : Everyone is touting how well Sean McCoy is running. The Bears have a good run defense, but they've allowed a couple of 100 yard rushers this season. McCoy will be another. However, the rushing Bears defense will frustrate Michael Vick. If this was ANY OTHER time but Monday Night Football, I'd easily favor Chicago, but the Bears have a TERRIBLE record on Monday Night Football. They will make mistakes, turn over the ball at crucial points, and give the game to the Eagles. EAGLES, 24-17

NCAA 2011 Week 10 picks

2011-11-02T09:17:00.000-04:00

Illness prevented me from completing this in time for Tuesday's game, but let's continue from there...

Wed Nov 2
Temple Owls at Ohio Bobcats: Temple battles Ohio for the lead in the MAC East. I like the Owls, although they have faded slightly in the past couple of weeks, while Ohio has shown strength. The Bobcats have the momentum and the home crowd, but I'll give a slight nod to the Owls. Either team stands a good chance to win this game. TEMPLE

Thurs Nov 3
Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles: Clemson's loss opens a window for the Seminoles, and they will try to exploit that. The Seminoles are helped by a struggling BC team. FLORIDA STATE

Fri Nov 4
#20 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes: Colorado is the worst team in the Pac-12, while USC just finished a near-upset over Stanford. USC

Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers: The Cardinal just finish a tough battle against USC, and now they have to travel to Oregon to face the Beavers. Oregon State has a habit of upsetting a team at home each year. Is it Stanford's turn? Perhaps, but I'll stick with my top team. STANFORD

#22 Kansas State Wildcats at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: After looking pathetic against the Sooners, the Wildcats get another chance to be embarrased by an Oklahoma team, as the high-powered Cowboys offense should overwhelm the Wildcats defense. OKLAHOMA STATE

#5 Boise State Broncos at UNLV Rebels: UNLV is not much of a threat to Boise State, or practically any team in the Mountain West. BOISE STATE

#25 Texas A&M Aggies at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: A&M can be tough, but I think the Sooners offense will prevail, knocking the Aggies out of the Top 25. OKLAHOMA

#7 Houston Cougars at UAB Blazers: The Blazers are the worst team in Conference USA, so this will be a breeze for the Cougars. HOUSTON

#8 Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies: These are the two teams competing with Stanford for the Pac-12 North division title. That means both teams will be fighting hard to win this game. I think Oregon has an edge in hard-fighting battles, but don't count out the Huskies. OREGON

#9 Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes: If Michigan can prevent the same stumbles experienced by Michigan State and Wisconsin, they should win this game. However, Iowa is good enough to take advantage of any Wolverine miscues. MICHIGAN

#10 South Carolina Gamecocks at #14 Arkansas Razorbacks: This game could literally go either way. Arkansas is very consistent, but the Gamecocks can be unbeatable when things are going their way. For this game, I think they'll be up. SOUTH CAROLINA

Northwestern Wildcats at #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Northwestern doesn't have much of a defense, so no matter how many points they score against Nebraska, the Cornhuskers will score more. NEBRASKA

Purdue Boilermakers at #15 Wisconsin Badgers: After facing the two toughest defenses in the conference, Wisconsin is happy for a chance to let their offense explode. WISCONSIN

#16 Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers: The Bearcats begin a tough conference stretch, with three of their next four on the road. If they can survive the challenge of Pitt, they host West Virginia for what may be the battle for the Big East title. CINCY

#17 TCU Horned Frogs at Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys will be a good warmup for TCU's showdown with Boise State. It will also show that the 5-2 Cowboys aren't quite at the same level as TCU and Boise. TCU

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #19 Michigan State Spartans: Sparty will bounce back from last week's upset, as the Gophers' heads are still spinning over their upset victory over Iowa. MICHIGAN STATE

Louisville Cardinals at #21 West Virginia Mountaineers: The Cardinals are a true threat in the Big East, but their toughest games still remain. This is probably the worst of them, made more difficult because it is on the road. WEST VIRGINIA

#24 Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins: A win here clinches the Pac-12 South division for the Sun Devils. I'll have to start my division and conference races next week. ARIZONA STATE

Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes: Ohio State continues their reversal of fortunes, this time for the better. Their defense will overwhelm the offensively challenged Hoosiers. OHIO STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: #3 LSU Tigers at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: Of course, this HAD to be the Game of the Week! These two tough teams face each other for establishing the likely opponent for Stanford in the National Championship Game (I'm still betting on Oklahoma State to lose to the Sooners). Alabama has the better defense and the more consistent offense. They also have the running game to control the clock, so I have to favor them. ALABAMA

Best of the Rest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Both teams have strong offenses; Tech's is a little better. However, Tech doesn't have a strong defense, which gives the edge to the Longhorns. TEXAS

Syracuse Orange at UConn Huskies: Syracuse needs to win to maintain at least a chance for the Big East title. UConn would love to play spoiler. I think Syracuse has the power and talent to win this game, but UConn may not make it easy. SYRACUSE

New Mexico State Aggies at Georgia Bulldogs: The SEC East runner-up plays an easy non-conference opponent. GEORGIA

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at East Carolina Pirates: A Southern Miss victory here basically assures them a slot in the Conference USA title game. SOUTHERN MISS

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake has played some tough games, but their losses have been monumental. The Irish have the power to cause another massive loss to the Deacons. NOTRE DAME

NCAA 2011 Week 9 Top 25

2011-11-02T07:08:00.000-04:00

It wasn't a full-blown upset Saturday, but it seemed like it. Two unbeaten teams fell, and only two of the six favored Big Ten teams won, and one of those (Penn State) needed a late fourth quarter rally to do it. The Nittany Lions were the lucky ones. The Michigan State Spartans couldn't muster a fourth quarter rally, the Wisconsin Badgers' rally was too late, and Iowa faced the comeback rally of Minnesota.

Aside from the Big Ten, the Big XII contributed many upsets. Missouri beat ranked Texas A&M, Iowa State knocked Texas Tech, who the previous week had beaten unbeaten Oklahoma, from the ranks of the Top 25, and Game of the Week Oklahoma versus previously unbeaten Kansas State was a Sooner showcase. K State was one of the two unbeaten teams who fell -- the other was Clemson, who was defeated by Georgia Tech.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-0) [1] : The Cardinal also faced a scare from USC, but won in triple overtime
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [2] : Toughest defense in the country
3. LSU Tigers (8-0) [3]
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-0) [4] : The only remaining unbeaten Big XII team, but they face some tough opponents in the weeks ahead
5. Boise State Broncos (7-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) [12] : Their huge victory over Kansas State propelled them back into the Top Ten
7. Houston Cougars (8-0) [7] : Aside from Boise, perhaps the team with the best chance to finish unbeaten
8. Oregon Ducks (7-1) [9]
9. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [11] : Michigan is the only Big Ten team right now winning impressively
10. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1) [15]
11. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [6] : Although no longer unbeaten, they still stand the best chance to represent the Atlantic Division in the ACC Championship Game
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1) [16] : They lead Georgia Tech by only half a game in the Coastal Division, but they hold the tiebreaker.
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) [19] : They seem to have gotten used to the Big Ten defenses, as they found ways to score against the toughest one
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-1) [14]
15. Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) [8] : Two consecutive losses have put their Big Ten Championship hopes in jeopardy
16. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [18] : The best of the Big East
17. TCU Horned Frogs (6-2) [25]
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2) [22] : Their defeat of Clemson keeps them on track to grab the Coastal Division title from Virginia Tech
19. Michigan State Spartans (6-2) [10]
20. USC Trojans (6-2) [20] : They forced Stanford to triple overtime before giving up the ball
21. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-2) [24]
22. Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) [13] : Oklahoma exposed how weak this previously unbeaten team truly was. They have two tough conference games remaining - their future as a Top 25 team is in jeopardy
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) [23]
24. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) [NR]
25. Texas A&M Aggies (5-3) [17]

Dropped out: Texas Tech Red Raiders [#21]

In Contention: Texas Longhorns (5-2), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-1), Florida State Seminoles (5-3), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3), Ohio State Buckeyes (5-3), Georgia Bulldogs (6-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3)

NFL 2011 Week 8 picks

2011-10-29T17:53:00.000-04:00

Let's start with the rankings...

Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (7-0) : The only remaining unbeaten team remains the team to beat
2. New Orleans Saints (5-2) : A record-breaking offensive performance propels this team to the top. Their defense doesn't look too bad as they are in the midst of a two-week meeting of offensively-handicapped teams
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Which team has the best defense in the NFC? This one
4. Detroit Lions (5-2) : Two consective losses are removing the shine from this team
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) : Owners of the best defense in the league
6. New England Patriots (5-1) : While the NFC has four teams with a better offense, the Pats are still an offensive force
7. Houston Texans (4-3) : Despite three losses, this defense is still a major threat
8. Buffalo Bills (4-2) : Their offense is clicking, but their defense still lacks some teeth
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) : The offense isn't doing too badly, but the defense lacks some of the rigidity of the past
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) : Another tough defense in the AFC North

Division rankings
1. NFC East : Whoa, there's a surprise! No team in the Top Ten, but they also have NO team with a negative point differential
2. NFC North : Three teams with winning records and two Top Five teams keeps this division high, but if Detroit keeps losing, this ranking is in danger
3. AFC North : With Cincy jumping into the Top Ten, this has become a stiff defensive division
4. AFC East : Miami is holding this division down
5. NFC South : Atlanta is winning, but New Orleans carries this division
6. AFC West : A division with three teams with negative point differentials so highly ranked? Considering ALL THREE of the bottom divisions have that situation, it's not surprising
7. NFC West : The 49ers are the only decent team in this division. This might be the first division title clinched
8. AFC South : With only one team with a winning record and the Colts the only 0-7 team (the other winless teams have had bye weeks), this division deserves the basement

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) : The tough Ravens defense will make this an easy victory. RAVENS, 24-13

Indianapolis Colts (0-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-3) : The Colts are slowly improving; emphasis on the "slowly". QB Matt Hasselbeck is not showing his past flashes of brilliance, but the offense is moving well enough to surpass the Colts. TITANS, 27-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Houston Texans (4-3) : As I stated above, the Texans defense is tough. Add in the Jags difficulties in moving the ball, and the Jags will be lucky to break double digits. TEXANS, 27-6

Miami Dolphins (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2) : Eli and company are in combat mode, but unfortunately their opponents are wearing the same uniform. For other teams internal strife would be distracting, but it's common enough among the Giants that they should still get the job done. GIANTS, 23-17

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (2-5) : The shift to Christian Ponder breathed some life into the Vikings' offense, but the it's the defense that will challenged this week. Cam Newton and the Panthers are racking up yards each week, and this week will be no exception. PANTHERS, 26-21

New Orleans Saints (5-2) at St Louis Rams (0-6) : The Saints could score as much as they did last week, but I'll keep the explosion down. SAINTS, 38-13

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4) : Cincy's defense will make life difficult for struggling Seahawks offense. BENGALS, 23-16

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Another strong defense that will frustrate their opponent. 49ERS, 20-13

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) : Tim Tebow has breathed life back into the Broncos, but even his comeback magic will come up short against Detroit, mainly because he won't get enough support from the Broncos defense. LIONS, 30-20

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) : This should be the most exciting game of the week! Brady and the Pats have beaten the Steelers in their last few encounters, but never count out the Steelers. Their defense is still sharp, and the Pats offense isn't quite as strong as they are used to. Unfortunately Pitt's offense hasn't been lighting up scoreboards, either. PATS, 26-21

Washington Redskins (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2) : This game could go either way. John Beck brings more consistency to the Redskins, but his arm isn't as strong. The Bills can score quickly, but the Redskins defense is capable of slowing them down. I'll favor the home team, but watch for the upset here. BILLS, 27-23

Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) : The Eagles play Dallas tough, but the Eagles are suffering from lackluster performances. Dallas isn't spectacular, but they get the job done. COWBOYS, 24-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) : KC is coming alive, in the midst of a three-game winning streak, but I think that ends here. The Chargers offense isn't the powerhouse it often is, but they're strong enough to overpower the Chiefs defense. CHARGERS, 27-13

NCAA 2011 Week 9 picks

2011-10-23T13:21:00.000-04:00

Too many obvious picks - this smells of an upset week!

Tuesday Oct 25
Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Sun Belt begins the week again with two teams looking to even their conference record. I think FIU has more talent, and the home crowd should help boost their confidence. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Wednesday Oct 26
UConn Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, but I think Pitt has a bit more going for them. PITT

Thursday Oct 27
Rice Owls at #7 Houston Cougars: Houston will remain unbeaten and continue their title as one of the most surprising teams of 2011. HOUSTON

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes: Virginia is good, but Miami has talent. Miami's problem has been inconsistency, but I think they'll get it together for this game. MIAMI

Friday Oct 28
BYU Cougars at #25 TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs will make the most of their return to the Top 25, and not allow the tricky Cougars to upset them. TCU

Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at #20 USC Trojans: The Trojans seem to have a chip on their shoulder, upset that they were not granted a reversal of their postseason restriction. They will give Stanford problems, but I still think the Cardinal are stronger than any team in the Pac-12, as they proved against Washington last week. STANFORD

Baylor Bears at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys saw what happened to their in-state rival, and know Robert Griffin III will make things difficult for them. Baylor may take the early lead, but I think the Cowboys defense will figure out how Baylor works, make halftime adjustments, and take over the second half. The Cowboys should remain unbeaten, but this game may be closer than anyone would like. OKLAHOMA STATE

#6 Clemson Tigers at #22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech is usually a good "bounce back" team, but they have a tough opponent this week. I think Tech will suffer a second consecutive loss as Clemson continues to establish their ACC dominance. CLEMSON

#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes had an extra week to prepare, but the Badgers are also looking to "bounce back". The Spartans forced some turnovers, but I think Wilson and the guys will be more careful this week, especially since they KNOW Ohio State's defense likes to force turnovers. They beat the Buckeyes last year when Ohio State was a stronger team, so I have to favor Wisconsin, even in the Horseshoe. WISCONSIN

Washington State Cougars at #9 Oregon Ducks: The Cougars suffered a tough loss against Oregon State last week, and now they face the stronger of the two Oregon teams. OREGON

#10 Michigan State Spartans at #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers: As proven earlier this season, the Huskers aren't prepared for the tough defenses that can be found in the Big Ten. The Spartans are the best defense in the league this season, and they'll pester Nebraska. MICHIGAN STATE

Purdue Boilermakers at #11 Michigan Wolverines: Purdue beat Illinois, but they surprised them with a revamped offense, They should have waited until this game to shake up the offense, because now Michigan will be prepared. MICHIGAN

#14 Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores: Vandy's good season dried up as soon as they started conference play, while Arkansas continues to win. ARKANSAS

#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers: The Gamecocks have injuries and suspension problems, making them ripe for an upset. If the Gamecocks played last week, I'd pick Tennessee. However, Coach Spurrier had an extra week to adjust for the losses, which should give them an edge. SOUTH CAROLINA

#16 Virgnia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils: Duke doesn't stink this season, but it's asking too much for them to beat Tech. VIRGINIA TECH

Missouri Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies are playing hot right now, while the Tigers seem a bit confused and overwhelmed. TEXAS A&M

Iowa State Cyclones at #21 Texas Tech Red Raiders: I don't think the Raiders' offense will allow this team to let down after last week's amazing upset. I think the Raiders actually expected to beat Oklahoma; they attacked the Sooners defense like they knew there were holes to exploit. No emotional let down. TEXAS TECH

Illinois Fighting Illini at #23 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State didn't look too good against Dan Persa and the Northwestern Wildcats, a team the Illinois defense beat up earlier this season. Penn State's defense will be tough, but their offense is still finding an identity. Illni QB Nathan Scheelhaase has his targets and the running game is improving, so watch for the upset here. ILLINOIS

#24 West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to bounce back from last week's upset, but I think the Mountaineers have too many tools. WEST VIRGINIA

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are the first team in the conference to be knocked out of bowl contention. They really don't have many tools this season, while Northwestern stretched Penn State. NORTHWESTERN

Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Iowa has bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. They can still compete in the Legends division. IOWA

The rest
NC State Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles still have a shot at the Atlantic division, so they know every game is important. A loss by the Wolf Pack basically removes them from a division title shot. They'll battle to prevent the loss, but the Seminoles will prevail. FLORIDA STATE

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Navy is struggling. The Irish have been doing okay, especially considering the strength of their competition. NOTRE DAME

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils: Colorado is pathetic this season. The Sun Devils win in a landslide. ARIZONA STATE

Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers: Auburn needs a strong victory to bounce back from the LSU game. Fortunately, they get a chance to get one. Ole Miss sits at the bottom of the SEC West, a position not unknown to them. AUBURN

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns: Texas had a bye week, and they lost their Top 25 position due to good play by other teams. They had a week to rest up and prepare, so they'll destroy Kansas and possibly return to the Top 25. TEXAS

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UTEP Miners: Southern Miss is challenging for a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, and they have the tools to reach it. SOUTHERN MISS

NCAA 2011 Week 8 Top 25

2011-10-23T12:24:00.000-04:00

This week marked the time when some teams learned a bowl bid is no longer possible. None were surprises. Not all conferences had seven-team losers, but most could have one by the end of this week. Only the SEC, Big East, and Big XII don't have candidates to be removed from bowl eligibility in a single week.

The week began with a series of upsets, but ended with only one. The Big East and ACC suffered many of the upsets, as both West Virginia and Rutgers suffered their first conference loss. That leaves Cincinnati in sole possession of the conference lead. Georgia Tech fell to Miami, and NC State demolished Virginia in a game where the outcome wasn't exactly an upset, but the margin of victory certainly was. Cal also won a game like that. Either Utah or Cal could have won, but nobody expected a Utah collapse and a Cal 24-point victory.

The other two upsets occurred in the Top Five, and both could have been much worse. Michigan State led Wisconsin by nine points at halftime, but a comeback engineered by the Badgers tied the game. In fact, overtime seemed likely, but a lucky rebound on a Hail Mary (and a lengthy video replay view to determine if the receiver crossed the goal line) gave the upset victory to the Spartans. The Sooners were in worse shape, trailing by 24 points at one point in the third quarter. They fought back within three, but couldn't overcome the massive deficit caused by Texas Tech. The Raiders beat previously unbeaten Oklahoma and entered the Top 25.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (7-0) [1] : The Cardinal completely destroyed Washington in a week of upsets and close games to firmly establish their top ranking
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [2] : The Tide offense struggled early against Tennessee, but the second half was theirs.
3. LSU Tigers (8-0) [6] : LSU hammered Auburn to state their case for a National Championship bid. Their battle against Alabama in two weeks will be a real "season maker".
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) [5] : The Cowboys take the lead in the Big XII with a solid victory
5. Boise State Broncos (7-0) [7] : The Broncos continue to win, but will likely be excluded from the BCS National Championship
6. Clemson Tigers (8-0) [8] : Wake Forest is now the only team to compete for the Atlantic division title. Beating Georgia Tech this week and Wake on Nov 12th will give them the division title and set them up for an unbeaten season.
7. Houston Cougars (7-0) [9] : Could Houston go unbeaten? They should certainly be unbeaten when they face SMU at the end of November
8. Wisconsin Badgers (6-1) [3] : The last unbeaten team in the Big Ten lost, but their powerful offense still keeps them in the Top Ten
9. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [10]
10. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [15] : A strong victory against Wisconsin propels them into the Top Ten
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [4] : The Sooners suffer their first loss BEFORE they face unbeatens Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Now the Sooners can play spoiler and remove the chance of ANY Big XII team playing for the National title.
13. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) [13] : One of the most impressive victories by the Wildcats this year, but it was against an in-state rival. Let's see how they do against Oklahoma this week!
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1) [12] : What's the worst thing about playing in the SEC West? You can have a great year and STILL not win the division
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) [18] : With the Yellow Jackets loss, the Hokies now control their own destiny to play in the ACC Championship Game
17. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [20] : Great win keeps the Aggies alive in the Big XII
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [19]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) [21]
20. USC Trojans (6-1) [25] : The Trojans continue to impress in a season when they can't play postseason
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) [NR] : An upset victory over Oklahoma propels them into the Top 25
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2) [16]
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) [22] : Won but still dropped? Ten points is not sufficient against a struggling Northwestern team. The Lions have to be concerned about the Illini coming to town this week
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) [17]
25. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) [NR] : The Horned Frogs re-enter the Top 25 with a HUGE one-sided victory

Dropped off: Texas Longhorns [#23], Washington Huskies [#24]

Also in contention: Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-1), Florida State Seminoles (4-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-3), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), BYU Cougars (6-2)

NFL 2011 Week 7 picks

2011-10-22T23:51:00.000-04:00

Top Ten Teams
1. Green Bay Packers (6-0) : The only remaining unbeaten team sits atop the league!
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Despite a handshake controversy, you can't deny the improvement this team has experienced under Jim Harbaugh
3. Detroit Lions (5-1) : Jim Schwartz may be a bit of a sore loser, but his team and the community are enjoying their best start since Barry Sanders was in the backfield
4. New England Patriots (5-1) : Tom Brady and company are back in command
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2) : A stumble against the Giants doesn't diminish the awesome offensive performances engineered by Ryan Fitzpatrick this season
7. New Orleans Saints (5-1) : They may be one-sided, but the Saints offense still rules
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
9. San Diego Chargers (4-1) : The offense is sputtering, but the defense keeps them winning
10. Houston Texans (3-3) : Don't let their record fool you - this defense is still tough as nails

Division Rankings
1. NFC North: The Lions may have lost, but they still have two of the Top Three teams. The Bears are even looking better, and the Vikings could change their fortunes with Christian Ponder.
2. AFC East: Despite a loss by the Bills, the division leaped over the AFC North for second place.
3. NFC East: Dallas is the only team with a minus point differential, and it's pretty small. That's a competent division.
4. AFC North: With two teams in the Top Ten, and Pittsburgh knocking on the door, Cleveland is the team bringing this division down.
5. AFC South: They have only one team with a winning record, but Houston is strong enough to keep this division afloat.
6. NFC South: With three teams with negative point differentials, the Saints are the only positive aspect of this division.
7. AFC West: San Diego and Oakland are doing fine, and Denver hopes to turn their luck around by putting Tebow under center.
8. NFC West: While Seattle occassionally offers some excitement, the 49ers are the only team of interest in this division.

Sunday early games
Atltanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1): The Lions bounce back by administering a whipping against the Falcons. Matty Ice and the Falcons offense isn't clicking, which opens the door for the Lions offense to establish a strong lead. LIONS, 31-17

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (4-2): Despite the fact that the Bears have not been impressive for most of the season, I have to go with the upset here. The Bucs have allowed more points than they've scored, and their offense isn't much more stable than the Bears. The Bucs' offensive line is better, but the Bears have better players. I think the Bears have more incentive to win this game, too. BEARS, 24-17

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5): You have to feel for the winless Dolphins this week. They host equally hapless Denver, who are now led by an inexperienced quarterback, but the home crowd will be rooting for the opposing quarterback! Tim Tebow returns home, and Miami is planning a celebration in his honor. That might anger the Dolphins, and push them to score early, but they will eventually get disallusioned and give up. Tebow will win his first game as a starter, thanks to a road game celebration. BRONCOS, 23-16

Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2): This is a game that really could go either way. Houston has the better personnel, but the Titans find ways to win, and they're at home. Still, I'll pick the visiting team, but only just barely. TEXANS, 23-21

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3): The Jets defense has lacked the teeth they had the past two years. The Chargers offense hasn't been as dynamic as usual, letting their defense do the work. Mark Sanchez has grown into his job, but I think the Chargers' defense will find ways to rattle him. If the Jets defense doesn't grow claws, the Chargers should win this one. CHARGERS, 24-20

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3): Boy, this one was tough to call. Seattle can surprise, so they're a threat to win practically any week. However, I'm going to go with ANOTHER upset this week, and pick McCoy and the Browns to step it up this week. BROWNS, 20-17

Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5): The Redskins defense was hit last week, so they'll toughen up this week. Grossman was pulled after four interceptions, but I'm not sure it'll matter WHO plays at quarterback; both Rex Grossman and John Beck can beat the pathetic Panthers defense. REDSKINS, 23-17

Sunday late games
Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5): The only unbeaten team in the league should continue to roll, thoroughly trouncing the Vikings in Christian Ponder's starting debut. PACK, 34-17

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2): The Raiders' offense is pretty easy to identify -- just find where Darren McFadden is. Despite that, he's still hard to bring down. The Chiefs aren't scoring much, so the Raiders defense will have it pretty easy this week. RAIDERS, 27-13

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4): How can the Steelers be only 4 point favorites against the Cardinals? Granted, their offense hasn't been strong, but they still have a good defense, and the Cards haven't been able to do much offensively this season so far. Easy win for the Steelers. STEELERS, 23-13

St Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3): The Cowboys defense showed some life last week against the Patriots. They won't need such a defensive performance against the Rams, who own the worst scoring offense in the league. COWBOYS, 27-13

Sunday Night: Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2): Curtis Painter is starting to show some ability, but he's still learning the system. The Colts' offense won't be able to keep up with the Saints offense when they get going. The Colts are happy that the Saints defense isn't too good, so Painter and company get some changes to score, but the Colts' defense won't be too successful at slowing the Saints. SAINTS, 31-16

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Like the late Sunday games, this will be another runaway. It seems like the Sunday early games will be the only close ones. RAVENS, 21-10

NCAA 2011 Week 8 picks

2011-10-16T12:22:00.000-04:00

This was a fairly easy week to pick, as there are few matchups between Top 25 teams or teams of similar strength.

Tuesday, Oct 18
Florida International Golden Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves: The Golden Panthers were the early favorite, but they have faded. The Red Wolves are a strong team, and they want revenge for their loss to FIU last year. ARKANSAS STATE

Thursday, Oct 20
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats: The Bruins don't have much of a chance to play for the conference title, but they are strong enough to be a nuisance. Against struggling Arizona, they'll be more than that. UCLA

Friday, Oct 21
#17 West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange: Syracuse could play spoiler, but I like the strength of the Mountaineers. WEST VIRGINIA

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals: Rutgers continues their run through the Big East. RUTGERS

Top 25
#24 Washington Huskies at #1 Stanford Cardinal: The Huskies should enjoy their first week in the Top 25, because it looks like it won't last. STANFORD

Tennessee Volunteers at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Vols can be tough, but the rigid Alabama defense will shut them down while the 'Bama offense rolls. ALABAMA

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #4 Oklahoma Sooners: Tech has the potential to upset, as their offense can run. Their defense isn't hot, though, so any stop by the Sooners puts them behind. OKLAHOMA

#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers: The Cowboys will wrangle the struggling Tigers, who are playing like cubs. OKLAHOMA STATE

Auburn Tigers at #6 LSU Tigers: The Tiger face-off in the SEC is always one of the most exciting and bruising games of the season. Here, a preseason favorite to win the BCS Championship plays the current BCS Champ. Up until the past two weeks, LSU has played lackluster. They won't this game, but Auburn will also have incentive to fight hard. This game will be close, closer than LSU would like. LSU

Air Force Falcons at #7 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos will roll as the Falcons continue to struggle to find an offensive identity. BOISE STATE

North Carolina Tar Heels at #8 Clemson Tigers: North Carolina has struggled in the ACC, and this game will be no exception. The Tigers continue their march through the ACC to the title game. CLEMSON

Marshall Thundering Herd at #9 Houston Cougars: Easy win for Houston against a struggling Marshall squad. HOUSTON

#10 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes: Perhaps even an easier victory for the Ducks, as Colorado stinks. OREGON

#12 Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels: Arkansas is yet to face the tougher SEC opponents, so they should enjoy games like this for as long as they can. ARKANSAS

#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas actually played Oklahoma tough in the first half, but couldn't sustain it. Against rival State, they may play them tough for most of the game, but I don't think it'll be enough to win. They may play the Wildcats really close, though. KANSAS STATE

#16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes: Miami may play Tech tough, but the Jackets won't allow themselves to lose two in a row. They may not win by much, though. GEORGIA TECH

Boston College Eagles at #18 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Eagles are basically a non-entity in the ACC this season. VIRGINIA TECH

#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls may make things tough for Cincy, but without the stiff defense the Bulls have had in previous seasons, the Bearcats will be able to score. CINCY

#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones: Iowa State has yet to win a conference game. That streak continues. A&M

#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Despite some impressive non-conference performances, it has been a poor year for Minnesota. Nebraska will finally get a winning conference record with this victory; that's something Ohio State doesn't have. NEBRASKA

#22 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern looked good until conference play began. Since then, they haven't been able to win. That streak will continue, as Penn State looks to maintain their half-game lead over Wisconsin in the Legends division. PENN STATE

#25 USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish had an extra week to prepare for this game, and that makes this interesting. It's more interesting when you realize that USC has not been as dominant as they have been in previous years, and their defense has some holes. I'm going with my first upset pick here. NOTRE DAME

Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue's defense gave Penn State some fits, and they found ways to score. Illinois has a more solid defense, though, and they keep finding more ways to move the ball. Purdue's secondary isn't fast enough to counter AJ Jenkins, so Nathan Scheelhaase will have more completions this week. Illinois regains their winning ways, and becomes bowl eligible with this victory. ILLINOIS

Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern confirmed what Iowa State demonstrated - that Iowa's defense has some holes. I don't think Indiana will be able to exploit those holes, though. IOWA

GAME OF THE WEEK: #3 Wisconsin Badgers at #15 Michigan State Spartans: The Big Ten gains their first Game of the Week in a matchup of Top 25 teams. Michigan State comes off an emotional win over their instate rival, while Wisconsin's offense has been rolling over everyone. The Spartans slowed the Michigan offense, but Wisconsin has too many tools to be slowed. WISCONSIN

The rest
Temple Owls at Bowling Green Falcons: Temple is the best team in the MAC, and they continue to prove it every week. TEMPLE

SMU Mustangs at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: This is a close game, a rarity this week. Either team is capable of winning this game, and establishing a solid second place behind Houston. I give a slight edge to the home team, both for the friendly fans and for their stronger performances, but this game truly could go either way. SOUTHERN MISS

NCAA 2011 Week 7 Top 25

2011-10-16T11:02:00.000-04:00

Which conference do you think is the worst? Not the Sun Belt, not the MAC, not Conference USA -- it's the Western Athletic Conference. The WAC currently has NO team with a winning record, and three teams with even 3-3 records. They have a chance to bump a couple of those to winning records this week, but things still look bleak for the conference.

It nearly turned into Upset Saturday, as we could potentially have seen the first loss of five teams. Two of them pulled it out, but Illinois, Georgia Tech, and Michigan each lost their first game of the season. An anticipated close game against Baylor and Texas A&M turned into a rout, as A&M frustrated Baylor's defense and knocked the Bears from the Top 25.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (6-0) [1] - Struggled a bit against Washington State, but still tops with Andrew Luck under center
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) [3] - Now the only unbeaten in the Big Ten
4. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [5]
6. LSU Tigers (7-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (6-0) [7]
8. Clemson Tigers (7-0) [9] - Amazing comeback to prevent an upset, but their defense definitely needs some work
9. Houston Cougars (6-0) [11]
10. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [15]
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [8]

12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [12]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14] - They needed another comeback, but the Gamecocks continue to challenge in the SEC
15. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [16] - Great win against an in-state rival. Let's see how they handle Wisconsin
16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) [10] - Clemson is clearly the top team in the ACC
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [19]
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) [23]
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) [NR] - A second Big East team crosses the Top 25 barrier, setting up an interesting contest on November 12th
20. Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) [22] - Don't dismiss the Aggies yet!
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [21]
22. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) [NR] - The Lions replace the Illini in the Top 25
23. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [17] - The Longhorns are struggling against the tougher opponents in the conference, and there lots of them this year
24. Washington Huskies (5-1) [NR]
25. USC Trojans (5-1) [NR]

Dropped off: Baylor Bears [#18], Illinois Fighting Illini [#20], Florida Gators [#24], South Florida Bulls [#25]. The loss of the Gators and the Bulls means that a Florida team is not in the Top 25 for the first time in years

Also in contention: Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Temple Owls (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), SMU Mustangs (5-1), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2)

NFL 2011 Week 6 picks

2011-10-15T13:10:00.000-04:00

Let's start with the top teams and the division rankings:

Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (5-0) : The Lions continue to lead the league, and the Lions fans are enjoying this year.
2. Green Bay Packers (5-0) : I don't know any NFL fan who isn't anxiously awaiting the first game between the Lions and Packers this season!
3. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) : San Francisco leaps into the Top Three after a HUGE wipeout of the Bucs!
4. New England Patriots (4-1) : Brady hasn't been as sharp as normal, but the Pats still dominate
5. Buffalo Bills (4-1) : With one of the most potent offenses in the league, the Bills and Ryan Fitgerald continue to impress
6 (tie). New Orleans Saints (4-1) : The offense keeps the Saints alive, as the defense lacks bite
6 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (3-1) : The Ravens go the other way, as defense and the running game dominate
6 (tie). Houston Texans (3-2) : Matt Schaub is inconsistent, but the defense remains tough
9 (tie). San Diego Chargers (4-1) : Phillip Rivers continues to post decent numbers as the Chargers roll
9 (tie). Washington Redskins (3-1) : Why couldn't Rex Grossman do this when he was a Bear? While we wait for him to collapse, the Redskins rule the NFC East

Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With the only two unbeaten teams in the league, and the Vikings finally in the win column, this division is strong
2. AFC North : This is the only division with no team with a losing record
3. AFC East : Despite hopes for the Jets, none of these teams are showing much defense, but offense is getting it done for Buffalo and the Pats
4. NFC East : The Eagles may be a disappointment, and the Giants' defense not what it used to be, but the Redskins defense is powerful, Rex Grossman is preventing mistakes, and Dallas hasn't collapsed yet.
5. NFC South : Like the AFC East, this division does not have much defense. The Saints offense is the only one rolling well, and as a result the Saints are the only team with a positive point differential. It's amazing they are ranked as high as they are.
6. AFC South : Little offense from this division, but the defense of Houston and Tennessee keep them in contention.
7. AFC West : KC has come on as late, winning their last two games, but they still have offensive problems
8. NFC West : The 49ers are on top, but that's only because the other teams look pathetic.

I'm picking mostly home teams this week. That's good for the fans, but I always worry when my picks are too one-sided.

Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2) : Buffalo hasn't seen the types of defense that the Giants are known for. Fortunately for the Bills, the Giants defense hasn't been normal this season. If the Giants defense finds themselves, though, this game could go the other way. BILLS, 27-23

Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3): Cam Newton is putting up great yardage totals for the Panthers, but they have trouble finishing games. I think that'll happen again, as the Panthers will lead midway through the fourth quarter, only to have Matty Ice engineer the comeback. FALCONS, 27-26

Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2): Curtis Painter isn't getting the Colts offense moving much better than Kerry Collins could, which plays well into the Bengals' defense. BENGALS, 23-17

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): The Steelers' defense gets a gift - an offense already struggling. STEELERS, 20-10

Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1): The Eagles' "Dream Team" is becoming a nightmare, and facing the tough Redskins defense won't make things any better. Vick is starting to revert to his "happy feet" mode, but the Redskins' D is too fast to be fooled that way. REDSKINS, 20-17

San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0): Let's face it, the Lions offense is a force. The 49ers' defense will slow them down, but not enough for Alex Smith and company to win this game. LIONS, 27-23

St Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0): Really, is there anyone out there who believes the Rams can win? PACK, 34-13

Sunday late games
Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2): While still lacking some of the ferocity of past great Raiders team, this year's squad is still a defensive force. Through in Darren McFadden on offense, and the Raiders are tough to beat. RAIDERS, 23-16

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1): Brady has been making some mistakes, but he's still generating 300-yard passing games, which overpowers the Cowboys. PATS, 31-23

Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1): These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so I have to favor the home team. Watch out for a Texans' upset, however. RAVENS, 23-21

New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2): The Bucs defense is good, but not good enough to slow the Saints offense. SAINTS, 30-21

Sunday Night
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3): The Bears don't usually do well on night games, but I think they'll prevail here. Jay Cutler has had his problems, but the Bears defense will frustrate the Vikings offense. BEARS, 23-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3): In the past, these games can sometimes become offensive showcases, but I don't think that'll be the case here. With Chad Henne benched as the Dolphins are already thinking about next year, the Jets have a chance to even their record. JETS, 24-13

NCAA 2011 Week 7 picks

2011-10-10T08:25:00.000-04:00

This week's doesn't have many matchups of Top 25 teams, but we do have some crucial conference games.

Thursday, Oct 13
USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears: USC hasn't been dominating, but they have been winning. Cal might give them some trouble, but I think the Trojans will emerge victorious. USC

Friday, Oct 14
Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans: Hawaii often struggles away from home, but San Jose has been struggling all season. HAWAII

Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars: The Cougars are having a good season, but Stanford's offense is simply too much for them. STANFORD

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels: The Rebels aren't doing well this season. This will be very one-sided. ALABAMA

Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Wisconsin Badgers: Indiana is another team who will be smothered by an overwhelming offense. WISCONSIN

#4 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas may score a bit more than Ole Miss or Indiana will score against their opponents, but the Sooners offense will roll. OKLAHOMA

#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #17 Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns got slaughtered by one high-powered offense from Oklahoma, and now they host another one. This one might be worse, as the Cowboys defense has some bite, too. OKLAHOMA STATE

#6 LSU Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols are tough enough to give the Tigers some trouble, but come the fourth quarter LSU will take command. LSU

#7 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams: The Broncos will run over the Rams. BOISE STATE

#8 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans: Now THIS is interesting! An in-state rivalry, the home team coming off a bye week, and a fierce history between these teams will make for an interesting game. The Spartans might pull off the upset, but their play has been too inconsistent for me to pick it. MICHIGAN

#9 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins: Using a rotating wardrobe of uniforms hasn't been as helpful for the Terrapins as it was for the Ducks. Clemson has quietly become the team to beat in the ACC, but Maryland won't be the ones to beat them. CLEMSON

#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers: Don't be fooled by Virginia's 3-2 record. They haven't been able to slow down opponents, which gives Georgia Tech a real chance to take control of this game. GEORGIA TECH

#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Oh, my, I'm really tempted to pick the upset. I think the Raiders can do it,but I can't be positive if my feelings are partly influenced by my belief that Kansas State's record is over-inflated. I'll go with the ranked team, but watch for the upset. KANSAS STATE

#14 South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Gamecocks won't have another record-setting point differential, but they will dominate the 'Dogs. SOUTH CAROLINA

Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Oregon Ducks: I almost hope the Sun Devils win here, because that further boosts Illinois' stock. I think the Ducks will win, though, although this might be a very close game. OREGON

Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Illinois Fighting Illini: The Buckeyes took an early lead against Nebraska last week, but when QB Bryant Miller went out with a knee injury, the defense fell apart. Miller will likely be back, but he's shown himself to be fragile and susceptible to a rushing defense. Illinois showed how successful they are at a rushing defense when they pestered Arizona State. In the early days of the Jim Tressell era, Illinois was a major thorn in the side of the Buckeyes. Somehow I think the Luke Fickell era will start in a similar fashion. ILLINOIS

#23 Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: This game has upset potential written all over it! In the past, Wake Forest does better when I don't pick them, so I won't. Don't be surprised if they win, though. VIRGINIA TECH

#24 Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers: Florida suffered an embarrassing loss last week, so they may want to redeem themselves. Auburn lost big last week, too, but their offense is more off-track than that of Florida. The defense hasn't been quite cutting it, either. FLORIDA

#25 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies: This is defintely not UConn's year. South Florida is struggling to remain in the Top 25, but the extra week of preparation will help them here. SOUTH FLORIDA

Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is ranked nationally on some of the polls. They aren't quite there on mine, but a strong victory here, plus a stumble from a current Top 25 team, might propel them there next week. PENN STATE

Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes: With Persa out again, the Wildcats are vulnerable. The Hawkeyes have bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. IOWA

GAME OF THE WEEK: #18 Baylor Bears at #22 Texas A&M Aggies: Baylor, led by dynamo Robert Griffin III, would seem to be the favorite, but the Aggies know their season is on the line here. Dropping three conference games would pretty much eliminate them from title contention, so they will fight hard here. I'll give the nod to the Bears, but the Aggies will keep this close and interesting. BAYLOR

The rest
Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats: The Big East seems to be coming down to a contest between West Virginia and Cincy. If Cincy can avoid stumbling in this "trap" game, they will be in good shape to challenge the Mountaineers for the title. CINCINNATI

Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels: Aside from their victory over Ohio State, the Hurricanes haven't been too impressive this season. With the fall of the Buckeyes, that victory is looking weaker. North Carolina, meanwhile, seems poised to compete with Clemson and Georgia Tech for ACC dominance. NORTH CAROLINA

Buffalo Bulls at Temple Owls: Temple is clearly the tops of the MAC this season. A couple of impressive wins could put them in position to snatch a Top 25 slot if other teams falter. TEMPLE

Iowa State Cyclones at Missouri Tigers: Iowa State has a tendency to crumble in conference games. If they can stay tough and defeat the struggling Tigers, they will still keep pace with the conference leaders. IOWA STATE

Navy Midshipmen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to prove that they are a force in the Big East, too. Navy is struggling, but could give the Knights some problems. RUTGERS

Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies: The Huskies should be able to trounce the struggling Buffaloes. WASHINGTON

Central Florida Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: These two are fairly evenly matched. I offer pick the home team in those situations, and I will again. SMU

NCAA 2011 Top 25 - Week 6

2011-10-09T11:24:00.001-04:00

It was a relatively calm week, at least in terms of upsets. Only one game, Buffalo against Ohio in the MAC, could really be called an upset, as the Bulls edged past the Bobcats by a point. The other "upsets" were found in point differentials, especially a 30-point loss suffered by Florida and the complete destruction of Texas engineered by the Sooners.

My Alma Mater, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, cracked the Top 25. They didn't beat Indiana by as much as I thought, but Miami's loss and Arizona State's commanding victory over Utah (which boosted Illinois' strength of schedule) pushed the Illini to #20. They now face one of their hated rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are coming off their first two-game consecutive losing streak in over ten years, so there is reason for concern. See how I pick that game in my other column.

The top of the rankings remained fairly stable, which is unusual for this point in the season. A further indicator that this week was not an upset contender.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (5-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3]
4. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) [5]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [4]
6. LSU Tigers (6-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (5-0) [9]
8. Michigan Wolverines (6-0) [8]
9. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [10]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) [11]
11. Houston Cougars (6-0) [15] - huge victory will draw more national attention to this team
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [14]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (5-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) [18] - one of the largest SEC margins of victory in Gamecocks' 15. history!
15. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [17]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [16]
17. Texas Longhorns (4-1) [7]
18. Baylor Bears (4-1) [19]
19. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [NR]
20. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-0) [26]
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [20] - Amazing come from behind victory, but could they have done it if Braxton Miller hadn't been injured?
22. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) [21]
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [22]
24. Florida Gators (4-2) [12]
25. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [23]

Dropped: Miami Hurricanes [#24], Auburn Tigers [#25]

In contention: Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1)

NFL 2011 Week 5 picks

2011-10-04T09:55:00.001-04:00

I finally found some time to determine top teams and divisions. The top teams I'll limit to the Top Ten (although I have ranked all 32 teams).

Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (4-0) : Their offense is clicking, and their defense is pretty tough, too. I don't have records that go back far enough to show the Lions at the top of the league; it must be at least 1983 since that was the case.
2. Green Bay Packers (4-0) : What's this? The top TWO teams come from the NFC North? Believe it! The old "black and blue" division has two shocking good offenses. The Pack's is even better than Detroit's, but their defense suffers a bit.
3 (tie). New England Patriots (3-1) : The Pats lead a three-way congestion for third place. Their offense is good, even though Brady that one bad game against Buffalo, and their defense is good, but there are still some holes that can be exploited on this team.
3 (tie). Houston Texans (3-1) : The first team whose defense outshines the offense, the Texans are proving a difficult road block for many teams.
3 (tie). Buffalo Bills (3-1) : Ryan Fitzgerald has this team clicking ever since he took over as starter late last season. He also has them believing in themselves as winners; perhaps the most difficult task to accomplish for the former AFC contenders (remember when Jim Kelly lead this team to four consecutive Super Bowls?).
6. Balitmore Ravens (3-1) : Another team with a strong defense than offense, age is starting to crack their veneer a bit, but they are still a powerful team that wears down opponents.
7. New Orleans Saints (3-1) : Their offense isn't quite as strong as their Super Bowl year, and their defense has problems, but they still give opposing defenses problems.
8. Tennessee Titans (3-1) : They are righting an offense that struggled in the early part of the season, and their defense is outstanding!
9. Washington Redskins (3-1) : Washington leading the NFC East? Believe it! While they are assisted by a meltdown of the Eagles, the Redskins defense is actually the best in the division.
10. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) : Alex Smith is showing promise, and the defense is tough as nails. That is a legacy left to Jim Harbaugh by Mike Singletary.

Division rankings
1. NFC North : With the top two teams in the league, where do you expect them to be? Until Green Bay and Detroit play each other, those two should linger near the top, helping to ensure this division's lead.
2. AFC East : They have two of the teams tied for third place, and the Jets are still a force. Miami is the only team dragging them down.
3. NFC East : This is the division with the highest overall value of points scored v points allowed. If Philly can right themselves, they could contest with the NFC North.
4. AFC North : The only division with NO team with a losing record, this division is home to the best overall defenses.
5. NFC South : If Atlanta could stop making mistakes, this division might be higher. As it is, no team is pathetic. Carolina may be 1-3, but with the numbers Cam Newton is posting, they'll be better than that soon enough.
6. AFC South : Who would have thought that it would Indy dragging this division down? You can't blame it all on them, as the offensive woes of Jacksonville are becoming a joke, but the Colts need to get something going.
7. AFC West : Only San Diego has a positive difference in points scored v points allowed, and their defense is such that the difference is less than ten. This division is suffering.
8. NFC West : Once again, the division leader is the only team showing any type of strength. This year, that's the 49ers.

Bye weeks start this week, so there are fewer games to pick.

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4): I'd love to pick the Vikings, and they might win their first game, but I think Kevin Kolb has better tools. With the Vikings defense struggling, the Cards get a chance to show what they can do, although neither offense will light up the scoreboard. CARDS, 17-13

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): Cincinnati is inconsistent and sporadic. If the "bad" Bengals show up, they could potentially lose this game. However, Jacksonville's offense is struggling too much to make them an upset pick here. BENGALS, 21-13

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-4): Here's my projected upset! The Chiefs were able to up-end the Vikings, but the Colts have been close in three of their four losses. The offense is starting to click, and even Curtis Painter shows signs of moving the ball. Matt Cassell has definitely taken a step backwards in his field sense and delivery. COLTS, 20-16

New Orleans Saints (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-3): The Panthers are a decent offense, so they'll score against the slow Saints defense. However, the Saints can score, too, and the Panthers defense is worse. The difference might be special teams, and there the Saints prevail. SAINTS, 31-21

Oakland Raiders (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1): Oakland can be tricky, but Houston is tough! Their defense is stingy, and Matt Schaub has their offense looking good. TEXANS, 24-16

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1): I saw a program on ESPN this morning where someone (I didn't immediately recognize him, and didn't catch the name - I couldn't watch for long) was still predicting a winning season for the Eagles. That happened primarily by beating Washington twice (ain't gonna happen) and getting past the Bears defense (which unless they are as injured as Vick when they meet, also won't likely happen). While this analyst apparently still can't give up the attraction of the preseason hyped "Dream Team", at least even HE figured the Bills would beat the Eagles. Who am I to argue with a rabid Eagles supporter? BILLS, 31-20

Seattle Seahawks (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1): When the Seahawks get their back against the wall is when they can be the most dangerous, as NFC West and NFC playoff teams discovered late last season. They are in that position now, knowing another early loss makes the likelihood of reaching the playoffs remote. Certainly the Giants look like a great candidate to upset. Their defense hasn't looked very sharp and the offense has made some costly and stupid mistakes. Still, the Giants offense has improved greatly from the pathetic unit on display during the preseason, and I think they'll eke out this game. GIANTS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Speaking of fighters when their backs are against the wall, that describes Pittsburgh well. This will be a defensive battle, and Pittsburgh usually wins those games. Here's another upset pick. STEELERS, 17-13

Sunday late games
New York Jets (2-2) at New England Patriots (3-1): The Jets are 2-2 and hopping mad about it. However, despite New York's defense, these games tend to be offensive showdowns, and Sanchez and company have been making too many mistakes recently to favor them. PATS, 30-24

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2): No upset here. San Diego's offense will roll over Denver. CHARGERS, 27-17

Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1): Man, I almost don't want EITHER team to lose! It's nice to see two teams whose recent fortunes haven't been good to lead their respective divisions, and be among the top teams in the league. This will be a close game where defense makes the difference, and that often goes to the home team. 49ERS, 21-20

Sunday night
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2): Atlanta's going to wish they didn't draw the NFC North this season. A loss to the Bears and a showdown against the Lions still to come, they can't be happy about this game. The Pack has the weakest defense of the three, so Atlanta will score, but they won't be able to stop the massive offensive onslaught of Green Bay. PACK, 31-23

Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (4-0): I'd love to pick the Bears, but they rarely play well on Monday Night. They have to face the streaking Lions, a team definitely on the rise in 2011. Sorry to say, this one won't go well for Chicago. LIONS, 30-20

NCAA 2011 Week 6 picks

2011-10-02T18:23:00.000-04:00

With everyone getting into conference play, there should be some interesting rivalry games where records don't matter as much. Let's see where upsets can come from...

Thursday, Oct 6
California Golden Bears at #17 Oregon Ducks: Oregon has the edge, but Cal can be tricky. Oregon learned something from their Week 1 defeat by LSU - don't take anything for granted. They also learned to be more careful with the ball. Cal might need a turnover to win this game, and I don't know if the Ducks will give them one. OREGON

Friday, Oct 7
#9 Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs: Fresno is struggling this season, so this will be an easy win for the Broncos. BOISE STATE

Top 25
Colorado Buffaloes at #1 Stanford Cardinal: Colorado is counting their money, which is the only good thing to come from moving to the Pac-12. Actually, given the number of unbeaten teams in the Big XII right now, maybe Colorado has a better shot at a decent season in this conference than their old home. This game won't help that quest. STANFORD

Vanderbilit Commodores at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: If the Tide can prevent a letdown after their tremendous win in the Swamp, this game shouldn't be too tough. The Commodores aren't as pitiful as most years, so the Tide should take them seriously. I think Nick Saban will. ALABAMA

Kansas Jayhawks at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys took an extra week to prepare for this game, not that I think they needed it. OKLAHOMA STATE

#12 Florida Gators at #6 LSU Tigers: The Gators want to vindicate themselves after a horrible loss in the Swamp. They will play LSU tough. I think the Tigers will win, because they have a better defense, but this is a definite upset possibility. LSU

#8 Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: You have to pity the Wildcats. They just get Persa back at QB, and he's knocked out in the fourth quarter against Illinois. They had a two-score lead in the third quarter, and that gets erased. Now they get another high-powered offense coming into town. The Wolverines defense isn't as good, but with Persa injured again, they won't need as strong a defense as the Illini did. MICHIGAN

Boston College Eagles at #10 Clemson Tigers: Clemson is not used to being the team to beat in the ACC, but they should maintain that status against a struggling Eagles team. CLEMSON

Maryland Terrapins at #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets got past North Carolina and NC State, but Maryland can be tough. This one has upset potential, but I'll stick with Tech. GEORGIA TECH

Missouri Tigers at #13 Kansas State Wildcats: Missouri is in the midst of a rebuilding year, so Kansas State won't really be tested this week. KANSAS STATE

#25 Auburn Tigers at #14 Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas gets a real test. The Tigers are unbeaten in conference play, while Arkansas lost to Alabama. This game also has upset written all over it, but I like the home team. They played well in their loss to Alabama (much better than Florida did), while Auburn has not looked sharp. Auburn hasn't faced the toughest teams in the conference yet. The Tigers are young; they are learning quickly, but I don't think they've learned enough to stop Arkansas. ARKANSAS

East Carolina Pirates at #15 Houston Cougars: East Carolina's only win this season has been against a conference opponent, but they now they face their greatest challenge. The Pirates' defense is not working well this year, which opens the door to the Cougars' offense. HOUSTON

Kentucky Wildcats at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks need to bounce back from their close loss to Auburn, and throttling Kentucky seems a good way to do that. SOUTH CAROLINA

Iowa State Cyclones at #19 Baylor Bears: The Cyclones lost their first game last week, as did Baylor. This will be a redemption game for one of them. Baylor lost by only a single point, while the Cyclones were thrashed. The Cyclones will be hotter for a victory, but the Bears have Robert Griffin III. He may have thrown his first interception at the end of the game last week, but he's still the most accurate passer in FBS. BAYLOR

Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Speaking of redemption game, here's another one. Both teams lost in their conference opener. Nebraska's defense was demolished by the high-powered offense of Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes offense has sputtered all season long. They get back their best receiver and best runner this week, though, so that might make the difference for Ohio State. Nebraska is a good team, but they aren't used to the tough defenses in the Big Ten; the defenses aren't as tough in the Big XII. That will make the difference. OHIO STATE in a stunner

#21 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Aggies started the season strongly, but I think their time is over. They aren't consistent enough to keep pace with the offenses of the top teams in the Biog XII. The Aggies will lose their Top 25 ranking while the Raiders gain one with their first win against a strong team. TEXAS TECH

#24 Miami Hurricanes at #22 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hurricanes had an extra week to prepare, but the worst thing that could have happened to Miami was a Hokie loss last week. Now Tech is committed to keep pace with the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division. Miami's defense will control the pace early, but Tech will wear down the defense, allowing them to come from behind. VIRGINIA TECH

Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers: Minnesota was destroyed last week, while Purdue got a break. The Gophers showed strength earlier this season, but they've been gradually losing it. Purdue is rested and desperate for a win in their conference opener. I like their chances. PURDUE

Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers: The Illini are 5-0 for the first time since 1951, when Dick Butkus guided them to a national championship. Likely losses by Nebraska, Auburn, and the Miami-Virginia Tech loser will provide openings in the rankings that Illinois can grab with an impressive win. ILLINOIS

Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: Iowa has fallen off the radar after lackluster non-conference performances, so they want a strong victory in their conference opener to recapture attention. Penn State always battles hard. Both teams have some quarterback issues, but Penn State has the better defense. PENN STATE

And the rest...
UConn Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers redeem themselves with a big victory over the defending conference winner in their Big East opener. WEST VIRGINIA

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake Forest has the better record, but they haven't played well, and have played mostly weak teams. The Seminoles have toughened themselves with games against Oklahoma and Clemson. Although those were losses, they kept themselves in those games, thanks to a stiff defense. That defense will swarm Wake Forest. FLORIDA STATE

Air Force Falcons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: A huge victory over Purdue might set up the Irish for a letdown, but they love to beat the Falcons. They have the tools to do it. NOTRE DAME

Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers leads the conference right now, thanks to a 3-1 record and win over Syracuse. However, they face the only other team to beat a Big East opponent this season. Pitt will make it two. PITT

Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers: With the losses to Florida and South Carolina last week, many national analysts are looking at Georgia to be a dark horse candidate to win the SEC East. I'd say that is EXTREMELY dark. The Bulldogs have not been impressive in their victories, while other teams in the division have impressed. One of them? Tennessee, who should win this match. TENNESSEE

NCAA Week 5 Top 25

2011-10-02T17:17:00.000-04:00

We had fewer upsets this week, but many of them affected Top 25 and former Top 25 teams. Thursday evening began the upsets, as the Big East opener turned out to be a rout, but reversed as you might expect. Pitt demolished South Florida, and ripped through their vaulted defense. Saturday saw TCU suffer their second loss of the second, this time against the SMU Mustangs. TCU at least prevented the rout suffered by South Florida, as they scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. Texas A&M also suffered their second loss, as #22 Arkansas showed the Aggies what they are likely to experience when they join the SEC next year (provided the Big XII lets them go). Ohio State is definitely looking forward to getting their suspended players back, as the Spartans shut down their offense for a shocking Big Ten upset.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [2] - The Tide smothered Florida to prove their dominance of the SEC
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3] - The Badgers pulverized Nebraska in the Cornhuskers' Big Ten debut
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) [6]
6. LSU Tigers (5-0) [9] - Most impressive win of the season so far for the Tigers
7. Texas Longhorns (4-0) [8]
8. Michigan Wolverines (5-0) [10] - HUGE shutout of the Gophers
9. Boise State Broncos (4-0) [12]
10. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [13] - The Tigers smothered Virginia Tech to become the "power" team of the ACC
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) [18]
12. Florida Gators (4-1) [5] - HUGE loss to the Tide
13. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [20] - Okay, I'll admit it. The Wildcats seem for real
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) [22] - Their dominance of A&M moves them up
15. Houston Cougars (5-0) [21]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [NR]
17. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [17]
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1) [11] - Tough loss for the Gamecocks
19. Baylor Bears (3-1) [19] - The Bears suffer their first loss, but it's only by a point
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) [15] - Do you suppose they now regret their move to the Big Ten?
21. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) [6] - Aggies woes even BEFORE entering main Big XII play, and the conference has more unbeaten teams right now than any other
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) [16]
23. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [14]
24. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) [24]
25. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [NR] - The rebuilt National Champions are proving to be tough and tenacious

Dropped: Ohio State Buckeyes [#23], Florida State Seminoles [#25]

On the Edge: Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1), Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2), Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1), Pittsburgh Panthers (3-2)

NFL 2011 Week 4 picks

2011-09-27T21:32:00.000-04:00

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2): Buffalo beat the Patriots! If they don't get so excited this week that they suffer a letdown, they should win this game easily. Ryan Fitzgerald is leading the most potent offense in the league. BILLS, 31-21

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2): Carolina won their first game last week, but Cam Newton still has things to learn. The Bears defense will teach him a few things. He may be a better quarterback AFTER this game, but he won't look great during the game. BEARS, 20-17

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1): Tony Romo's physical condition may improve by game time, but its their defense who look weak. Detroit has a powerful offense and their speed is greater than the Cowboys' defense. LIONS, 31-21

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3): The Chiefs' offense is struggling, while McNabb seems to connecting with his new team. I think the Vikings will gain their first win, while the Chiefs look stronger as the leading candidate for Andrew Luck. VIKINGS, 23-10

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2): Jacksonville's offense has been struggling. The Saints offense just keeps rolling along, but their defense needs work. The holes in the defense should allow the Jags to score, but they won't score enough against the high-powered Saints. SAINTS, 30-16

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1): Pittsburgh's running game has been anemic, and their passing game hasn't been spectacular, either. Worse, their rush defense is suffering, which opens the door for the Texans. TEXANS, 23-20

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2): It looks like Vick is out for a week or two, which is great news for San Fran. Their offense isn't great, but they should be able to score enough against the Eagles that a Vick-less offense can't surpass them. 49ERS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-1): This should be a close game, and I usually go with either the home team or the best defense in those cases. I think Cleveland qualifies for both of those. BROWNS, 23-21

Washington Redskins (2-1) at St Louis Rams (0-3): The Rams defense can't stop anyone. This is the type of defense that Rex Grossman loves, so expect Washington to move the ball well. REDSKINS, 27-13

Sunday late games:
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2): Seattle's offense has been a bit anemic. The Falcons' offense hasn't been as sharp as recent years, but the potential exists. I think Matt Ryan gets into a better groove in this game, as he's taking some heat this week. FALCONS, 23-16

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-0): The Pack are a strong team, and that fast rushing defense will frustrate Kyle Orton. PACKERS, 31-20

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1): The Dolphins aren't terrible, but they can't seem to finish games. The Chargers will take a strong second half lead, which will make things worse for the non-closing Dolphins. CHARGERS, 23-17

New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1): The Raiders are proving to be tenacious at home -- they beat the Jets last week! The Pats rarely lose two games in a row, and their loss to Buffalo last week will add incentive to win this one. I'll pick Bill Belichick and the "never say die" Patriots, but don't be surprised if the Raiders pull it out. PATS, 30-24

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2): The Giants are starting to come together, both on offense and defense. The Cardinals are still too inconsistent to feel confident about them. GIANTS, 23-20

Sunday night:
New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1): The Jets faltered against the Raiders last week, and the Ravens have been a powerful team (except for their stumble against the Titans). This is another game that could go either way, but I like the Ravens at home, where they slaughtered the Steelers. RAVENS, 23-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (2-1): Kerry Collins is starting to improve, but the Bucs defense will frustrate them all day. The Bucs gave a Peyton Manning-led offense (with a patchwork of receivers) great difficulty last season, and I see them abusing these leaderless Colts this year. BUCS, 24-16

NCAA 2011 Week 5 picks

2011-09-25T18:43:00.000-04:00

Many conferences enter conference play, yet there are also some FBS v FCS matchups. We have a couple of battles between Top 25 teams, and some rivalries already kicking in.

Thursday, Sept 29
#14 South Florida Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers: The Panthers fought Notre Dame mightily last week, but they still lost. The Bulls have a tough defense, and an offense strong enough to beat Pitt. SOUTH FLORIDA

#21 Houston Cougars at UTEP Miners: Houston shouldn't have much difficulty against a struggling Miners team. HOUSTON

Friday, Sept 30
Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars: Utah State has played teams close, but still sit with a 1-3 record. BYU hasn't been dominant, but they have found ways to win. BYU

Top 25
UCLA Bruins at #1 Stanford Cardinal: The Bruins are improving, but they aren't good enough to knock off the last unbeaten team in the Pac-12. Andrew Luck returned to Stanford to play for a National Championship, and he may get that chance. STANFORD

#15 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #3 Wisconsin Badgers: Nebraska plays their first Big Ten conference game in history, and they have to face the most powerful offense in the conference. Mix in Wisconsin's defense, and things don't look good for Nebraska's Big Ten opener. WISCONSIN

Ball State Cardinals at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: The Cardinals have been playing some great football, including an offensive showcase against Army last week, but they face a tougher challenge against Oklahoma. The Sooners defense isn't as strong as it has been, so Ball State will score some points, but Oklahoma will score more. OKLAHOMA

#7 Texas A&M Aggies at ##22 Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas faces the possibility of losing two consecutive games to Top Ten teams. The Aggies lost last week, but they played a close game and scared the Cowboys. They won't be scared of Arkansas. TEXAS A&M

#8 Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones are unbeaten, and can give Texas a hard time. However, the Longhorns have come together faster than expected, and they are definitely a challenger for the Big XII title. TEXAS

Kentucky Wildcats at #9 LSU Tigers: Kentucky faces their second consecutive Top Ten SEC team, and the result won't be much different. The LSU offense finally came alive last week, which just makes them more difficult. LSU

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #10 Michigan Wolverines: This game won't be as close as I suspected a couple of weeks ago. Minnesota is losing power, while the Wolverines continue to improve under new coach Brady Hoke's tutelage. MICHIGAN

Auburn Tigers at #11 South Carolina Gamecocks: You can never count out the Auburn Tigers, but they just aren't as sharp as they were last year. I like what the Gamecocks are doing this year, and that makes them the favorite in this battle. SOUTH CAROLINA

Nevada Wolf Pack at #12 Boise State Broncos: Last year this game was a real barnburner. This year the Wolf Pack aren't nearly so competitive. BOISE STATE

#13 Clemson Tigers at #16 Virginia Tech Hokies: This battle of unbeaten ACC teams should be exciting. The Hokies can always be tough at home, but they haven't looked as sharp as previous years. Clemson has quietly been a successful team this season, and may surprise the Hokies. CLEMSON

#18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolfpack: NC State is just not gelling this season. This should be an easy victory for Georgia Tech. GEORGIA TECH

#19 Baylor Bears at #20 Kansas State Wildcats: This will really prove how good Kansas State is. They had a good game last week, but their previous games featured patsy opponents that are really not a good warmup for the competitive Big XII this season. Baylor has played closer games but overcome tougher opposition, including their opener against TCU. I think Baylor will be competitive this game. BAYLOR

Michigan State Spartans at #23 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes gain some players back from suspension, but there are rumors of additional ones coming. If the Buckeyes lose players, Michigan State could pull off the upset. As it is, I'll pick the Buckeyes, but watch out for Sparty! OHIO STATE

Bethune-Cookman at #24 Miami Hurricanes: Easy win for Miami. MIAMI

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: What do you call an Illini team with an unexpected 4-0 record? A Top 25 contender! The Wildcats had an extra week to prepare for this game, so their new quarterback got more practice time. The Illini offense acts like it needs more practice time, and this state rivalry can get very heated. If the Illini can get past their rival, they deserve a Top 25 rank. ILLINOIS

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers: Penn State won't get surprised by the Hoosiers; since their loss they have tightened things up. PENN STATE

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers: This game frequently becomes a battle. The Boilermakers got an extra week to prepare, so you know they will playing hard. The Irish are starting to get back on track, which makes them dangerous. I like Purdue's chances, but the Irish has been so unpredictable this season that I have to expect the unexpected with them. NOTRE DAME

GAME OF THE WEEK: #2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #5 Florida Gators: Florida has scrambled their way into the Top 5 with a tremendous SEC win last week, but now they face the Crimson Tide. The offense is explosive again and the defense, may perhaps not as stingy as their National Championship year, is tough. Florida will find this a difficult game, even playing in the friendly confines of the Swamp. ALABAMA

And the rest...
Toledo Rockets at Temple Owls: Toledo was expected to lead their division in the MAC, but they are collapsing. Temple is a Top 25 contender. TEMPLE

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks: Tech's offense isn't as powerful as previous years, but it'll be enough to overpower the struggling Jayhawks. TEXAS TECH

Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen: These battle of the service academies can get bloody. Air Force has been struggling, but that won't mean much in this contest. Still, nobody grinds it out better than Navy. NAVY

Buffalo Bulls at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee needs an ego boost. This game should qualify. TENNESSEE

Bowling Green Falcons at West Virginia Mountaineers: Bowling Green is looking good, and could pull out the upset, but the Mountaineers are hungry for a good victory after last week's woes, so they'll take it out on the Falcons. WEST VIRGINIA

SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs: TCU's been battling for respect since their loss to Baylor. This game may not completely qualify, but a strong victory will boost their standing. TCU

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans: Arizona can surprise, but the Trojans want to wash out the sting of a blowout loss. They will battle hard, and they will take out their frustrations on the Wildcats. USC

Washington Huskies at Utah Utes: Welcome to the Pac-12, Utah. They haven't been having the type of season they are used to, and need a signature win to establish themselves in their new conference. Washington is actually proving to be a good team this season. A win here will boost Utah's position. Washington won't make it easy for them. UTAH

NCAA 2011 Week 4 Top 25

2011-09-25T15:23:00.000-04:00

Upsets plagued Top 25 (and prospective Top 25) teams again this week. While EITHER team winning the LSU v West Virginia contest would not be an upset, the winning margin of 26 points WAS an upset. I didn't either team would so dominate. West Virginia committed three uncharacteristic turnovers in the first half, and LSU capitalized on each one. The anemic Kansas State Wildcats took an early lead against Miami. The Hurricanes stormed back, but they couldn't come all the way back.

I took heat about my placement of Florida International into the Top 25, and Louisiana-Lafayette showed that I was mistaken. The Golden Panthers got beat, and the Top 25 is now a distant memory. A team who hasn't seen a Top 25 since I began this ranking in 1995 is Duke, yet the Blue Devils gained their second victory by manhandling Tulane. Stanford is now the only undefeated Pac-12 team as Arizona State, fresh from their upset loss to the Fighting Illini, kicked USC's butt. The game wasn't even close, spinning the Trojans out of control.

The Big Ten wasn't immune to an upset, as the hard-fighting Minnesota Golden Gophers were up-ended by FCS North Dakota State. So much for hoping that Minnesota would surprise this season; that just leaves Illinois as an unexpected dark horse in the conference.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [3]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [2]
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) [5] - Powerful performance against A&M
5. Florida Gators (4-0) [6] - Great SEC opener!
6. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [4] - Struggled against Missouri
7. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) [7] - Impressive in a loss
8. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [8]
9. LSU Tigers (4-0) [11] - Wiped out West Virginia
10. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [10]
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) [13]
12. Boise State Broncos (3-0) [12]
13. Clemson Tigers (4-0) [14]
14. South Florida Bulls (4-0) [16]
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) [20] - Slow start against Wyoming, but they owned the 2nd half
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-0) [NR]
17. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [24]
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0) [NR]
19. Baylor Bears (3-0) [23]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) [NR]
21. Houston Cougars (4-0) [21]
22. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1) [9]
23. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) [25] - The Buckeyes get back some key players this week
24. Miami Hurricanes (2-1) [17]
25. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) [19]

Dropped: West Virginia Mountaineers [#15], Florida International Golden Panthers [#18], San Diego State Aztecs [#22]

Also in contention: Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0), Temple Owls (3-1), Michigan State Spartans (3-1), TCU Horned Frogs (3-1), Navy Midshipmen (2-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1), Tennessee Volunteers (2-1), Washington Huskies (3-1)

NFL 2011 Week 3 picks

2011-09-20T15:08:00.000-04:00

The Falcons offense woke up this week. Kerry Collins is looking better, but the Colts still trail in the AFC South, Washington has proven to be the strongest NFC East team, and Buffalo has the most potent offense. What surprises will Week 3 bring?

Sunday early games
Denver Broncos (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1): Tennessee's defense seems solid, as they outplayed the powerful Ravens defense. That should give Denver cause for concern. On the other hand, the Titans have a nasty habit of playing up to the level of stiff competition and playing down to the level of mediocre competition. That could give Denver an opening. I think Tennessee will prevent the loss, but this may be closer than they'd like. TITANS, 20-17

Detroit Lions (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2): Donovan McNabb showed a bit more life in this week's game, but he's still shaky. Worse, the entire Vikings defense seems shaky, which will be a problem facing the high-scoring Lions. LIONS, 31-17

Houston Texans (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1): Houston has the stingiest defense in the league (yes, Jets fans, you read that right!), but slowing New Orleans may be a challenge. They will have to, as their offense isn't capable of outscoring them. This game could go either way, so it's my first "pick-em" game of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2): The Panthers haven't been able to close games, but they are looking better. Jacksonville's offense is pathetic. All the Panthers will need to do in this game is preserve a fourth quarter lead, which seems easier for them than engineering a fourth quarter comeback. PANTHERS, 27-20

Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-1): Cleveland has to watch out, because Indy was engineering a nice comeback this past week. Still, I think the Browns defense will do a good job of shutting down Henne and company, and allow the lumbering Browns offense to eat clock. BROWNS, 23-20

New England Patriots (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-0): The two best offenses in the AFC battle it out. This will be reminiscent of the old Patriot-Dolphins games, where each team could score forty or more points. I'm not sure we'll see that much offense, but both offenses should get over 400 yards each. The Patriots usually prevail in these AFC East offensive showdowns, so I'll pick them. PATS, 38-34

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1): The Eagles gave up a fourth quarter lead against Atlanta, but now they host a team where they engineered a similar comeback two years ago. The Giants defense got on track this week, but Eli and the offense are still struggling. Without special teams and defensive turnovers, the Giants would have lost their game against the Rams. Don't expect the Eagles to be so easy. EAGLES, 28-20

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1): Cincy had trouble against Denver, so you know they still have problems. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense continue to improve. The defense couldn't stop a Dallas rally, but I don't think Cincy has the same ability to rally. 49ERS, 27-20

Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2): Seattle has the worst offense in the NFC; no other team is even close! Their defense is only mediocre, so Arizona should be able to mop up this win easily enough. CARDINALS, 27-13

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (1-1): The Falcons pulled off a wonderful comeback against the Eagles. That type of game built Matty Ice's reputation. Tampa's defense is good, but I think Matty Ice and company will keep it close enough to engineer another fourth quarter comeback, especially since the Bucs offense isn't really strong. FALCONS, 23-20

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at St Louis Rams (0-2): Baltimore is mad about their upset to the Titans. They'll take it out on the Rams. RAVENS, 30-13

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1): The Bears made a great home stand against Atlanta in Week One, and I'd love to see them do it again, but I haven't heard whether Brian Urlacher will be back yet. Without him, I think the Pack will roll. PACK, 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1): Right now KC has the worst offense AND the worst defense in the league. Their only consolation? Getting Andrew Luck. San Diego's offense will roll over them. CHARGERS, 41-13

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-1): The Raiders can be tricky, but the Jets are trying to keep pace with the Patriots in the AFC East, so this game is crucial. The Jets defense plays a better form of traditional Raider football (beat up your opponent) than the Raiders currently do. JETS, 30-20

Sunday night game:
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2): Kerry Collins looked better last week, but the Steelers rush is too fast for the old man. The Pitt offense got moving in Week 2, so we should see some points on the board here. STEELERS, 23-13

Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1): The Cowboys pulled off a great comeback against the 49ers, but the Redskins defense is stiffer. I don't think Romo and company will be able to do it. They should avoid cries of "fourth quarter meltdown" because they'll already trail by then. REDSKINS, 26-17

NCAA 2011 Week 4 picks

2011-09-19T07:12:00.000-04:00

I'm not picking any upsets this week, which might be dangerous.

Thursday, Sept 22
NC State Wolf Pack at Cincinnati Bearcats: Both are 2-1, but only Cincy is playing like a 2-1 team. CINCY

Friday, Sept 23
Central Florida Golden Knights at BYU Cougars: The Cougars fought hard last week, so they seem to have woken up. Let's see if they stay awake against Central Florida. BYU

Top 25
South Dakota at #2 Wisconsin Badgers: This FCS opponent shouldn't pose any trouble for the offensive powerhouse of the season so far. WISCONSIN

#9 Arkansas Razorbacks at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide: Arkansas has some excellent offensive tools, but they'll be challenged by the stingy Tide defense. 'Bama's offense will march up the field against Arkansas, too. ALABAMA

Missouri Tigers at #4 Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners survived a scare against Florida State; Missouri won't be so scary. OKLAHOMA

#6 Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats: The 'Cats will get bitten by the Gators. FLORIDA

#22 San Diego State Aztecs at #10 Michigan Wolverines: The Aztecs could trip up the Wolverines, but they seem to have found their power. MICHIGAN

#11 LSU Tigers at #15 West Virginia Mountaineers: Whoa, this could be an interesting game! LSU is consistent, but their offense isn't clicking the same way it did last year. With the Mountaineers running strong, I have to favor the home team. WEST VIRGINIA

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #12 Boise State Broncos: Teams often find it hard to play on the blue turf at Boise, and Tulsa doesn't need any more problems this season. BOISE STATE

Vanderbilt Commodores at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks: This is a potential upset game, but I believe in the clever game planning of Stever Spurrier. SOUTH CAROLINA

#19 Florida State Seminoles at #14 Clemson Tigers: Clemson needs to be careful, because Florida State fought Oklahoma hard. However, the Tigers beat Auburn last week, and the Seminoles faded in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma. I favor Clemson pulling this one out late. CLEMSON

UTEP Miners at #16 South Florida Bulls: UTEP is struggling this season, while the Bulls continue to attack opponents. SOUTH FLORIDA

Kansas State Wildcats at #17 Miami Hurricane: The 'Canes dominated in their home opener. The Wildcats haven't battled a tough enough opponent to prepare themselves for this challenge. MIAMI

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at #18 Florida International Golden Panthers: I'm catching some heat for my high placement of FIA, but this team has embarrassed every opponent they've faced, and they took on some tough opponents this season. Moving into Sun Belt play only makes things easier for them. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

#20 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming is good, but the Cornhuskers have been stable. The Cornhuskers haven't been blowing away opponents, but that just makes them more dangerous, as they don't get much attention and teams may think they are suffering a down year. They aren't. NEBRASKA

Georgia State at #21 Houston Cougars: This FCS opponent won't help Houston's Top 25 ranking, but it'll give them another win. HOUSTON

Rice Owls at #23 Baylor Bears: Baylor gets an impressive victory to improve their Top 25 standing. BAYLOR

#24 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats: Arizona fought hard last week, but ran out of gas. Oregon may fall behind, but they'll pour it on late. OREGON

Colorado Buffaloes at #25 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes face an easy opponent as they have players still sitting out their suspension. OHIO STATE

Big Ten
Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans begin their road to redemption after suffering defeat to the Irish, and they get a pretty easy opponent to do it. MICHIGAN STATE

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions: This should be an easier game for the Nittany Lions after squeezing out a win against Temple. PENN STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa hasn't been looking sharp, but this game can help get them back on track. IOWA

Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Broncos can be a tricky team, but after the defensive stand engineered by the Illini last week, I have to give them the edge. ILLINOIS

North Dakota State at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota is actually a decent team this season, so this powerful FCS team won't shake them up too much. MINNESOTA

Indiana Hoosiers at North Texas Mean Green: Indiana encounters a team who is having an even worse season than they are. INDIANA

GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #7 Texas A&M Aggies: This one could go either way. I'd normally pick the home team in these types of battles, but I think the offensive power of the Cowboys could be the difference. I also think the Cowboys' defense will be better than what finally took the field after the weather delay. OKLAHOMA STATE

The Rest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: North Carolina is unbeaten, but they haven't been showing up big. After a slow start to the season, Tech came alive last week. I think that'll continue, especially with the home crowd to spur them on. GEORGIA TECH

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers: The Irish won their first game last week, but Pittsburgh has been a strong team throughout the season. I like their chances to prevail here. PITT

Temple Owls at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland's little uniform switching act hasn't really helped their performance at all, while Temple has upped their game this season. The Owls pushed Penn State to the limit; Maryland won't be much of a challenge. TEMPLE

Ohio Bobcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Bobcats are quietly having a great season. The Knights haven't been really powerful yet, but they had an extra week to prepare for this game, so they might have some tricks up their sleeve. This will be a close one, but I'll pick the Bobcats. OHIO

Virginia Tech Hokies at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Hokies want to crack my Top 25, but vanquishing a struggling Marshall team doesn't give them much strength of schedule power. VIRGINIA TECH

California Golden Bears at Washington Huskies: Cal is 2-1 but have surrendered more points to FBS teams than they've scored. Washington has shown themselves to be a good and stable team this season. I have to favor the Huskies. WASHINGTON

Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers: The Tigers get to lick their wounds from Clemson since the Owls are having a terrible season. AUBURN

Nevada Wolfpack at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Last season this would have been a colossal battle. The Wolfpack lost too much, and are no longer a threatening force. TEXAS TECH

USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils: Expect a real battle, as the Sun Devils try to erase the memory of their loss to Illinois. They proved to have a potent passing offense, so USC's secondary had better be ready. This will be a close game, with multiple lead changes, but I think USC has the defense to hold back Arizona State at the end. USC

NCAA Week 3 Top 25

2011-09-18T13:41:00.000-04:00

Upsets plagued the Big Ten again this week, but not all of them worked against the conference teams. Both Penn State and Iowa avoided upsets, although it took a school record 4th quarter comeback on the part of the Hawkeyes to do it. My own Alma Mater, the University of Illinois, engineered an upset against nationally ranked Arizona State. The Illini offense wasn't working well, but the defense forced turnovers and shut down the Sun Devils running offense.

Three upsets did plague the teams of the Big Ten, though. Both Ohio State and Michigan State, Top 25 teams, suffered losses that exposed serious deficiencies. Michigan State's defense, especially against the run, proved porous, and their own rushing offense was lacking. Ohio State's defense can still make things happen, but the offense wasn't capable of capitalizing on them.

The biggest surprise among the Big Ten was Northwestern's loss to Army. With perhaps the biggest victory for the Black Knights in years, the Wildcats couldn't get their offense on track. That has to concern them.

The Big Ten wasn't the only conference bitten by the upset bug. The ACC saw upsets go their way, and knock them down. Clemson beat the defending National Champion by 14 points, certainly an unexpected accomplishment. Boston College, however, was beaten by Duke, the perennial ACC football doormat. It DEFINITELY will be a long season for BC.

The FCS even got into the upset action, as Indiana State knocked off struggling Western Kentucky. Could the Hilltoppers go winless for the second time in three years? It kind of looks that way.

TOP 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [1]
2. Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) [3] - Home to the most effective offense in FBS
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [5]
4. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [2] - Had a hard time against Florida State
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [4] - The defense couldn't seem to handle the late hour, once the game finally began
6. Florida Gators (3-0) [6]
7. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) [7]
8. Texas Longhorms (3-0) [10] - I think we can shred the "rebuilding year" label
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) [9]
10. Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [14] - Their victory over Notre Dame looks better now
11. LSU Tigers (3-0) [11] - Offense still not quite getting going
12. Boise State Broncos (2-0) [NR] - One strong FBS win gets them back into the Top 25
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0) [13]
14. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [19] - Impressive victory against the current BCS Champ
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) [15]
16. South Florida Bulls (3-0) [16] - Leader of the suddenly fractured Big East
17. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) [NR] - Never let the Hurricanes play angry
18. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-0) [24] - Perhaps the most interesting team in Florida
19. Florida State Seminoles (2-1) [21] - They lost, but they fought Oklahoma to the final minute
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) [20]
21. Houston Cougars (3-0) [18] - Not an impressive win for the Cougars
22. San Diego State Aztecs (3-0) [NR] - The Aztecs prove to be a force
23. Baylor Bears (2-0) [23]
24. Oregon Ducks (2-1) [25]
25. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1) [8] - Suffering the longest drop, the Buckeyes need to shore up their offense or they may drop out of the Top 25 for the first time in years

Dropped: Michigan State Spartans [#12], Auburn Tigers [#17], Washington State Cougars [#22]

Also in the mix: USC Trojans (3-0), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-0), Ohio Bobcats (3-0), Temple Owls (2-1), Navy Midshipmen (2-1), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0), Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0), Central Florida Golden Knights (2-1), Washington Huskies (2-1)

NFL 2011 Week 2 picks

2011-09-15T13:33:00.000-04:00

Not too many surprises in Week 1. The Bears' dominance over the Falcons was a surprise, as was the phenomenal play of new Redskins QB (and former Bear) Rex Grossman. The collapse of the Pittsburgh offense was the other surprise of the week. I think they'll recover form this week.

Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-0): Despite a win against Carolina, Cardinals coach Ken Wisenhunt spent the week analyzing areas for improvement on the part of Arizona. Their offense gained more yards than they did in 15 games last year, but the defense gave up too much. That's cause for concern, given the 300-plus yard performance by Rex Grossman last week. Grossman does well when he's feeling good. Until he's threatened by a tough defense, he may continue to shine. REDSKINS, 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-1): The Ravens displayed a defensive showcase against the Steelers, shutting down everything Pittsburgh tried. Expect a similar demonstration at Tennessee. RAVENS, 31-7

Chicago Bears (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-1): The Bears are likely to face the Saints without the help of defensive captain Brian Urlacher, who is with his family after the death of his mother. That could be dangerous. Urlacher is undeniably the heart of that defense, as he proved last week when his 12-yard interception-for-touchdown return sparked a lackluster game and spurred five sacks of Falcons QB Matt Ryan. The team will attempt to rally, but without Urlacher, they won't maintain it. SAINTS, 31-21

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1): Oh, how the mighty have fallen! Can you believe I would pick CLEVELAND to beat the Colts? Yup. Kerry Collins looked wooden last week. That's to be expected, given the fact that he hadn't played a down in professional football in over a year and a half. It'll take him time to get back into the swing of things, and Indy's complicated offensive scheme won't help him. BROWNS, 17-10

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-1): There are some Panthers players guaranteeing a win against Green Bay. Dumb! That'll only motivate the defending Super Bowl Champs further. At least Cam Newton is staying out of that talk, probably because he knows those Packer defenders would kill him if he painted a target on his back. PACK, 35-13

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0): Just the type of opponent Rex Ryan loves! A struggling passing team dedicated to the ground game having to face that tough Jets defensive front. Easy win for the Jersey boys. JETS, 24-9

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0): I'd have to dig out my records to find out the last time Detroit started a season 2-0 (those records are packed away). It seems likely that they'll do it in 2011. Shutting down the Chiefs' running game won't be as easy as it was shutting down Tampa's last week, but they should still do it. Moreover, the Chiefs are a team killing THEMSELVES. Dropped passes and miscommunication flourished in the preseason, and it didn't look like they solved those problems last week. LIONS, 27-10

Oakland Raiders (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0): The Bills scored early and often against the Chiefs last week. Ryan Fitzgerald was stellar, but he got lots of support from RB Fred Jackson. That run support will be harder to come by against the Raiders, who are tough against the run. Touchdowns were hard for Oakland to get last week, and Denver's defense isn't hot. The Raiders problem -- penalties, as usual. I think Oakland will take a lead, but kill themselves in the fourth quarter. BILLS, 17-13

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1): The Steelers offense was anemic last week, but I think they'll improve. Harder to figure is the collapse by the defense. They're too good a defensive team to stay down, but that may take a little longer to fix. Fortunately, they get a weak enough opponent to find time to fix them, although Seattle might sneak in a big play or two, just like they did against the Saints in last year's playoffs. STEELERS, 24-20

Tampa Bay Bucs (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1): If Minnesota wasn't in the same division as the Bears, I might not care about this game at all. Neither of these teams looked good last week. Bucs QB Josh Freeman passed for over 400 yards, but that's because the Bucs could do nothing on the ground. The Vikings offense gained less than 200 yards; they were helped by two interceptions of Philip Rivers. Donovan McNabb hardly threw, and likely with good reason. I don't think the Vikings can succeed by relying on their defense -- it isn't as good as the Bears, Steelers, Ravens, etc. BUCS, 17-9

Sunday late games:
Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Denver Broncos (0-1): Denver played atrociously against the Raiders, but the Raiders on Monday Night tend to do that to opponents. The Broncos offense couldn't find their rhythm, but that's not surprising for a team playing their first game with a new head coach, especially with the abridged preseason. Cincy, however, has bigger problems. The worst of those is a concern about the conditioning of the defensive squad (as stated by their coordinator to ESPN.com), which is NOT a good situation when playing in Mile High. BRONCOS, 13-10

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0): Dallas led for three quarters against the Jets, but then committed typical Cowboys boneheaded manuevers. It may take less time than that to fall behind to San Francisco. While the offense sputtered for the 49ers, special teams was ablaze. Former Buckeyes Ted Ginn Jr scored two touchdowns on returns, and the Cowboys don't cover kicks well. Expect the 49ers to dominate in that squad again. 49ERS, 20-17

Houston Texans (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1): Chad Henne had a good game against New England; the Dolphins lost because their defense collapsed. That could cost them against Houston, who have a ground-churning game that will frustrate a struggling defense. Home field is no advantage for the Dolphins, who have won only once since moving to Sun Life stadium. TEXANS, 30-24

San Diego Chargers (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0): This could be the most exciting game of the game, especially if you like highlights. The Pats and Fins combined for over 500 yards last week, and expect similar fireworks with these two. The winner may be the last team to hold the ball, which means game planning and time management could win this game. Few coaches do those better than Bill Belichik. PATS, 31-27

Sunday Night game:
Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1): I think the Falcons will play better than they did against Chicago, but the Eagles' offense will be pushing. The reason? Michael Vick returns to town, and he wants to prove that the Falcons should have given him a shot after he served his time for dogfighting. Emotions, properly channeled, can fuel major results in this game, and nobody has better incentive than Vick in this game. EAGLES, 34-27

Monday Night Football
St Louis Rams (0-1) at New York Giants (0-1): The Giants should win the turnover battle, and likely win the game, but neither team will look impressive. I figure there will be over 100 yards of penalties and less than 50% of all passes will be completed. GIANTS, 21-17

NCAA 2011 Week 3 picks

2011-09-13T15:09:00.000-04:00

With the Top 25 complete, let's get right to it...

Thursday, Sept 15
#11 LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs might pull the upset, but I expect LSU to bear down and get serious, just like they did against Oregon. LSU

Friday, Sept 16
Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets: Boise State got an extra week to prepare for this one, and they should win easily. BOISE STATE

Iowa State Cyclones at UConn Huskies: The Cyclones are still high from their upset over Iowa, and the Huskies aren't barking too loudly. IOWA STATE

Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona Wildcats: Arizona is struggling, while the Cardinal continue to shine with Luck under center. STANFORD

#3 Wisconsin Badgers at Northern Illinois Huskies: Easy win for the offensive mighty Badgers. WISCONSIN

#4 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: The Cowboys will outshoot, outrun, outscore, and outlast Tulsa. OKLAHOMA STATE

North Texas Mean Green at #5 Alabama Crimson Tide: You almost have to pity North Texas. They start the season getting slaughtered by Florida International and it just goes downhill from there. ALABAMA

Tennessee Volunteers at #6 Florida Gators: I figured Tennessee's winning streak would end when they began conference play, and they picked a tough opening opponent. FLORIDA

Idaho Vandals at #7 Texas A&M Aggies: Easy win for the Aggies. TEXAS A&M

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Miami Hurricanes: Just in time, the Buckeyes get four players back, half of those who sat out the first two games. Miami won't be pleased to see them. OHIO STATE

Troy Trojans at #9 Arkansas Razorbacks: A strong win here, but strength of schedule isn't likely to help the Razorbacks. ARKANSAS

#10 Texas Longhorns at UCLA Bruins: The Bruins are stronger than I thought, but a win here would be quite an upset. I'm not biting. TEXAS

#12 Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish fall to 0-3 as the Spartans continue their roll through non-conference opponents. MICHIGAN STATE

Navy Midshipmen at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks: Navy's running game seems to have run aground, giving South Carolina plenty of ways to capsize them. SOUTH CAROLINA

Eastern Michigan Eagles at #14 Michigan Wolverines: Another in-state rivalry game for the Big Ten, but this one won't end up like the Iowa clash last week. MICHIGAN
#15 West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins: Despite an extra week to prepare, I don't the Terrapins will pull off the upset. WEST VIRGINIA

Arkansas State Red Wolves at #16 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies aren't going to climb in my Top 25 until they face REAL opposition! VIRGINIA TECH

#17 Auburn Tigers at #19 Clemson Tigers: Auburn will be everyone's choice, but watch out for Clemson. I'll pick the visiting Tigers, but the hometown one is hungry, too. AUBURN

#18 Houston Cougars at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: This one might be closer than Houston would like, but their unbeaten record should remain intact. HOUSTON

Washington Huskies at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers have a chance to gain some Top 25 ground with an impressive win against the Huskies. NEBRASKA

#22 Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs: This will prove whether the Cougars are the real deal. San Diego State has a good team, and the Cougars have to face them at home. An impressive win here solidifies the Cougars' claim on the Top 25.

Stephen F Austin at #23 Baylor Bears: Baylor waited a week for this? This victory won't even help them in Top 25 rankings.

Central Florida Golden Knights at #24 Florida International Golden Panthers: The Panthers will prove that they are the toughest "middle tier" Florida football power with this win. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Missouri State at #25 Oregon Ducks: This game could even HURT Oregon's Top 25 ranking, especially if lower teams impressive against FBS opponents. BAD scheduling here.

Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls: The Nittany Lions want a chance to get into the Top 25 and regain their footing after last week's embarrassing loss at Alabama, but Temple can be tricky. I think Penn State will win, but this one could be dangerously close. PENN STATE

Pittsburgh Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Lord knows Iowa should win, and they'll want a win after their loss to the Cyclones, but Pitt doesn't look as bad as predicted. Watch out here. IOWA

Southeast Missouri State at Purdue Boilermakers: This should be a strong victory, and give the Boilermakers hope for the recovery of their ailing quarterbacks. PURDUE

South Carolina State at Indiana Hoosiers: A winnable game for Indiana, who has hung in there against FBS opponents. INDIANA

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota should win this game. I figure they were shocked enough last week to wake them up. MINNESOTA

Northwestern Wildcats at Army Black Knights: Northwestern marches over the Cadets. NORTHWESTERN

Arizona State Sun Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini: My Illini have had two strong victories, but they played weak teams. This is their first real opposition, and they won't prevail. ARIZONA STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: #2 Oklahoma Sooners at #21 Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles are claiming that they have returned to greatness this year, and this is a chance for them to prove it. I don't think anyone outside Tallahassee really expects Florida State to win, but if they can play Oklahoma close, they might impress. Their defense will be challenged here. If they can stay sharp and keep watch over the speedy Oklahoma offense, they might lose by less than two touchdowns. OKLAHOMA

The rest
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores: Ole Miss doesn't look as good as I thought, while Vandy is having a good run. I think the Commodores will make the most of the momentum they've built. VANDERBILT

Kansas Jayhawks at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Kansas is 2-0 against weak opponents. This is Tech's time to go out there and gain a big win. GEORGIA TECH

Syracuse Orange at USC Trojans: The Trojans end Syracuse's winning streak, and it should be easy. USC

Utah Utes at BYU Cougars: Both of these teams have failed to impress so far this season, so this game is crucial. I think the advantage lies with BYU, as Utah has more external pressure, as they are expected to win this game and compete for the Pac-12 title. BYU in a stunner

NCAA 2011 - Top 25 from Week 2

2011-09-13T14:32:00.000-04:00

We had fewer upsets this week, and they ALL centered around the Big Ten conference. Minnesota, who played USC so tough in Week 1, failed to overcome a charge by the New Mexico State Aggies, a team slaughtered by Ohio University in Week 1. Purdue's injury problems showed against Rice, as the Owls stomach-punched them for a 24-22 victory. Lastly, the in-state rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State heated up, as the Cyclones posted a three overtime home stand and beat their rivals by three points.

Okay, on to the Top 25. I'll review my rules for new to my column. I consider strength of schedule more than point spreads, and I don't count the point spread in games against FCS opponents. Any team with a losing point spread, REGARDLESS of record, will not be considered, and any team who has not yet played a FBS team will not be considered. That said, here is the first TOP 25 of the 2011 season:

1. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) : No real surprise here. Andrew Luck returned for a shot at the National Championship, and they are dominating opponents.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)
3. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0): A bit of a surprise here - they have been demonstrated one of the strongest and most consistent offenses in FBS
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0)
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : recovered nicely from their 4 INT performance in Week 1
6. Florida Gators (2-0) : This team may be better than I gave them credit for being
7. Texas A&M Aggies (1-0)
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Despite suspensions, the team keeps rolling
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0) : They might even be a bit better without Ryan Mallet
10. Texas Longhorns (2-0): Rebuilding year? Maybe not
11. LSU Tigers (2-0): Great victory over Oregon, but they relaxed too much this week.
12. Michigan State Spartans (2-0): I told you last year wasn't a fluke!
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)
14. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) : Impressive win over Notre Dame
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0): Once again, the best in the Big East
16. South Florida Bulls (2-0): Looking to give West Virginia some competition, they began the beatings against the Irish
17. Auburn Tigers (2-0) : The defending champs haven't been overly dominant, but they have been effective
18. Houston Cougars (2-0)
19. Clemson Tigers (2-0)
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0) : Not so strong considering competition
21. Florida State Seminoles (2-0)
22. Washington State Cougars (2-0): Whoa! Where did all of that offense come from?
23. Baylor Bears (1-0): Impressive upset over TCU. They would be higher, but TCU has been struggling
24. Florida International Golden Panthers (2-0): I have never had a Sun Belt team in my first Top 25, but the Panthers chose an excellent Week 2 opponent for strength of schedule, and then knocked them around
25. Oregon Ducks (1-1): Nice recovery from LSU

Also in the mix:
USC Trojans (2-0), Boise State Broncos (1-0), Central Florida Golden Knights (2-0), Temple Owls (2-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0), Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-0), Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1), Iowa State Cyclones (1-1)

NFL 2011 Week 1 picks

2011-09-07T09:58:00.000-04:00

Welcome back to NFL Football! An abridged preseason may make for some interesting play in the early weeks, but many teams seem ready for the season. I think some coaches needed longer to make good decisions (Rex Grossman starting over John Beck? Ugh!), but the season officially begins tomorrow.

Thursday, Sept 8
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The NFL continues its recent tradition of starting the season with the two previous Super Bowl champs. Both of these teams are strong and preserved most of their team. The Saints lost Reggie Bush, but I don't think they'll miss him much. The Saints, if anything, got better due to some great free agency acquisistions. That makes this game interesting. This will be a close contest, as each team pulls out all the stops. I usually favor the home team in these close contests, and I'll do so again. PACKERS, 27-24

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears: The Bears are healthy, but the Falcons offense is just too fast for the Bears. Chicago will score some of their own, as the Falcons are still adjusting to a new defensive scheme and squad, but Matty Ice and company will still record the win. FALCONS, 31-21

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Yesterday's signing of David Gerrard changes the scope of things for KC. Not their immediate future, as Gerrard has to learn a new system, but it shows that the Chiefs have lost faith in Matt Cassel. I don't think Cassel is source of most of their problems, so a change in quarterback won't entirely fix the Chiefs problems. Buffalo will still beat them this week, and the future will depend on other acquisitions and changes the Chiefs do. BILLS, 26-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: Both teams are still well behind the Steelers and Ravens in the division, especially on offense. Cleveland has the better offense. The loss of Rob Ryan leading the defense, and the installation of a new defensive scheme, hurts their defense. Still, I think the gap in the teams' respective offenses is larger than the gap in the defenses, allowing Cleveland to scrape by with a win. BROWNS, 17-13

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs: This looks to be the year Detroit gets back on the winning side. The Bucs are still adjusting (they needed a longer preseason!), but the Lions are in top shape right now. Matt Stafford has the Lions offense clicking, and new defensive additions in the past two years has shaped up the defense. The Bucs have a good defense, too, but the offense isn't quite there, giving the Lions a win to open the season. LIONS, 24-16

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Peyton Manning is out, and Kerry Collins hasn't started a game in two years. I understand the philosophy, as Collins' experience is probably an advantage against Houston, but they should have at least considered playing Curtis Painter. He was steadily improving during the off-season, and he knows the system and the receivers better. It will take Collins time to adjust to the offense, time the Texans will take to score a win against their division rival. TEXANS, 20-10

Philadelphia Eagles at St Louis Rams: Dream Team the Eagles ain't, but the Rams are pretty far from that description as well. The Eagles offense is working, which is more than can be said for St Louis. EAGLES, 34-6

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: These two always play each other tough. While both teams have good offenses, this will be a defensive showdown. I'd like to favor Pittsburgh, but the Ravens proved during preseason that they have some new surprises, so I'll give them an edge in this meeting. Pittsburgh should win in their next meeting, though. RAVENS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The loss of David Gerrard makes this a more interesting pick. I had no problem picking Jacksonville when Gerrard would be leading the team, but Luke McCown was sporadic during preseason. Hasselbeck is definitely the better player, and has the better wide receiver targets, but Jacksonville has been primarily a running team the past few years, especially since the acquisition of Maurice Jones-Drew. I think this game will be close, and the passing magic of Matt Hasselbeck will engineer the winning touchdown. TITANS, 20-17

Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals: Both teams start with new quarterbacks, but Arizona has the experience in Kevin Kolb. Cam Newton showed ability during preseason, but he is still too prone to run to get out of trouble. In preseason, when teams are trying not to get players hurt, he was allowed to get away with it. Come regular season, he'll find that more difficult. Kolb can scramble, but he has the better field sense to keep passing an option. CARDINALS, 16-10

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers: Donovan McNabb is still loosening up and still learning the Vikings system, while the Chargers are pumped, primed, and ready. This one is the easiest pick of all. CHARGERS, 31-9

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: I don't care that Rex Grossman looked good in preseason; he could look good in preseason when he played in Chicago. It's the pressure of the actual game that causes him to force plays, and that's when he makes his mistakes. Making those mistakes against a defense like the Giants is just asking to give the game away, which he will. The defense might do better moving the ball than the offense will! GIANTS, 17-6

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Here is a matchup of two struggling quarterbacks: Tavaris Jackson for the Seahawks and Alex Smith for the 49ers. At least Smith has the advantage of knowing the system. The Seahawks surprised New Orleans in the playoffs, but they had no business playing in the postseason. They underachieved during the season, and I don't see them pushing themselves hard this season. On the other hand, Jim Harbaugh has motivated HIS underachieving team; look for the 49ers to play above themselves. 49ERS, 16-10

Sunday night game: Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets: The Cowboys have been inconsistent in the preseason, sometimes looking sharp and sometimes looking confused. No defense can confuse a team more than the Jets, so look for Dallas to struggle here. JETS, 24-13

Monday, Sept 12
We have two games on Monday to start the season, a new practice which I'm not sure I like (I have an early class on Tuesday!). However, it doubles the pleasure of NFL fans, who get twice as many nationally televised games.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: Tom Brady and company are healthy and ready for another postseason run. Miami should improve with improvement from Henne, but we don't know if Reggie Bush can handle full-time running duties. The Dolphins' defense also has some question marks, which paves the way for a Patriots win. These games are often high-scoring, but I think Miami's offense is still gelling. PATS, 34-20

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver is a team in disarray, with bad feelings and issues with new coach John Fox. The defense improved, but they had no place to go but up. Also, the Raiders play very well on Monday Night. So, of course, my pick is... Denver. Huh? Simply put, the AFC West teams seem to know how to get under the Raiders' skin, and the Raiders play emotionally. If they get mad or flustered, they made costly mistakes. That will be the difference in the game. BRONCOS, 27-23

NCAA 2011 - Week 1 Review and Week 2 picks

2011-09-06T06:59:00.000-04:00

What a crazy opening weekend! In nearly thirty years of reporting on college football, I've never seen so many weather-delayed games in one weekend.

As I stated last week, I will not be producing a Top 25 until after next week's games, so I'll begin my recap with analyzing how the major conferences performed over the weekend. I'll start with my home conference:

Big Ten: The classic conference had a strong opening weekend. Of course, it helped that many of the teams played patsy opponents. Ten of the twelve teams won their games. Minnesota lost, but they played USC tough, and lost by only two points. It may have taken their defense a while to focus on WR Robert Woods, but once they started covering him, his yardage dropped significantly. We also discovered that Matt Barkley doesn't really trust any other targets than Woods, which exposes a weakness in the Trojans' offense. Purdue struggled in their victory, but that can be excused considering they were playing with their third-string quarterback, due to injuries to their first two. That does mean Purdue will have troubles until their starter heals.

Ohio State demonstrated how deep their roster is, as the loss of EIGHT players (four suspended for five games, two suspended for two games due to improper $300 benefits, and two academically ineligible - and how can that happen so soon in the season?) didn't stop them from demolishing Akron. Michigan's game was less than 3/4 the normal length and they still beat MAC contender Western Michigan by 24 points; a great beginning for Brady Hoke. It took a little while for Wisconsin's and Illinois' offenses to wake up, but then they consistently drove down the field.

Pac-12: Not as good a start for the newly expanded conference. Their newcomers split their games - Colorado did ok in their loss to Hawaii but Utah's offense seemed anemic, even in victory. I already mentioned that USC seems to have offensive problems of their own. On the other hand, both UCLA and Washington State had strong offenses. Stanford did, too, but that was expected.

Cal did great and the two Arizona teams did okay, but Washington struggled against a FCS team. Oregon made too many mistakes to look like a national title contender, and Oregon State was defeated by their FCS opponent.

Big XII: Recordwise, it seemed a perfect weekend for the Big XII. However, some of the victories were squeakers against weak opponents, causing concern for some coaches. Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all seem solid. Baylor's offense exploded, enabling them to upset BCS contender TCU. Both Kansas and Oklahoma State had porous defenses this week, while both Missouri and Kansas State struggled to score points against FCS opponents. Iowa State just seemed poor on all sides of the ball.

SEC: This conference only suffered two losses, but again there were concerns with winning teams. Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt all performed well in their opening weekends, although four interceptions by the Tide's two quarterbacks is cause for concern. The defense prevented Kent State from capitalizing, but they need to cut those out before conference play, or Alabama stands no chance of winning their division.

LSU was strong and Mississippi State is a force (okay, I admit I may have misjudged them). Both South Carolina and Auburn need to work on their defense (Auburn needs to work on their defense? My, how unusual!) while Kentucky and Ole Miss have problems on offense. Georgia started well, but they seemed to run out of gas early.

Let's look at the upsets and near upsets. It seemed we might be in for an upset-filled weekend when the first upset happened on Friday night, but Saturday calmed. A few teams squeaked by, those, and many of those against FCS opponents. Kansas State's offense could only muster ten points against Eastern Kentucky, winning by a mere field goal. Maybe they need to find even a weaker team to start their season. Washington let in-state rival Eastern Washington score 27 points, and also won by just a field goal. Wyoming also squeaked by with a field goal victory after spotting Weber State 32 points (geez, where was the defense on THAT team!). Little Stony Brook sent UTEP into overtime before the Miners could put the game away.

One FCS team did successfully pull off an upset, and it was in classic overtime style. Sacramento State kept pace with the offensive anemic Oregon State Beavers, and the two teams entered overtime tied at 21. The Beavers won the toss, and scored a touchdown on their possession. Sacramento went next, and scored a touchdown on their possession. Down by an extra point, they chose to go for two instead of playing another overtime period. Their conversion was successful, and Sacramento beat the Beavers on the road.

Two other games were last minutes thrillers. The Utah State Aggies had engineered a perfect upset against the Auburn Tigers, and led by ten points in the final minute and a half. Then came the last minute heroics the SEC is known for. The Tigers scored a touchdown, successfully kicked an on-side kick, and ran the ball for another touchdown. Two touchdowns in sixty-three minutes, and the Tigers escaped victorious, but concerned. The other last minute squeaker DID end in an upset, and it was our first one of the 2011 season. TCU and Baylor exchanged scores all night, as Baylor QB Robert Griffin III racked up 347 yards and five touchdowns. Baylor led by two late in the fourth, until TCU scored their final touchdown to take a 50-45 lead. Things looked bleak, but TCU gave Baylor too much time (even though TCU didn't think so). A good kickoff return put Baylor in good field position, and they needed less than 45 seconds to set up for the winning field goal.

Week 2 picks
Okay, time to look at the games for Week 2. We still have teams playing FCS opponents (Eastern Michigan plays their SECOND), but we have enough cross-conference competition to establish a Top 25 when Sunday dawns.

Thursday, Sept 8
Arizona Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys may have some concerns about their defense, but with their offense, those problems don't have to fixed quickly. OKLAHOMA STATE

Friday, Sept 9
Missouri Tigers at Arizona State Sun Devils: The Tigers offense sputtered last week. If they can't get it fired up quickly, they'll find themselves in a hole against an effective Sun Devil offense. ARIZONA STATE

Saturday, Sept 10:
Big Ten
Oregon State Beavers at Wisconsin Badgers: The Beavers go 0-2 as the Badgers just grind up the turf and the clock. Nothing will frustrate the Beavers more than a ball-hogging running game and quick defense. WISCONSIN

Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans will take apart the Owls as they go 2-0, admittedly against easy prey. MICHIGAN STATE

Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes: Eight players still sit on the bench for this game, but I'm not as concerned about that as I was a week ago. Toledo is a good team, but the Buekeyes should still win, although probably not as easily as last week. OHIO STATE

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones: This in-state rivalry has often given problems to the Hawkeyes, but the Cyclones stink this season. IOWA

South Dakota State at Illinois Fighting Illini: Another patsy for the Illini, but I don't mind. They'll struggle when conference play starts, so it's nice to see them win now. ILLINOIS

Alabama Crimson Tide at Penn State Nittany Lions: Look out, but I'm declaring an upset! The new Tide quarterbacks don't have good downfield vision. That lack resulted in four interceptions last week. Even if they reduce that for this game, the Lions will make them pay. I predict at least one pick six, which might be the difference in the ball game. PENN STATE

Eastern Illinois at Northwestern Wildcats: Boston College played the Wildcats close last week, but Eastern Illinois won't give them too much trouble. NORTHWESTERN

New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers: After holding USC to only 19 points, the Gophers defense might shut out the Aggies, although I figure they'll bring in second team and allow them one score. MINNESOTA

Purdue Boilermakers at Rice Owls: Purdue has to be happy they start the season with easy teams while their quarterbacks heal. PURDUE

Fresno State Bulldogs at Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Bulldogs were predicted to do well, but a loss to Cal last week puts their record in jeopardy. A loss here removes "BCS Buster" from their banners this season. NEBRASKA

Virginia Cavaliers at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers lost to Ball State on the road. An impressive victory for Virginia last week convinces me that they have some power this season, perhaps more than Indiana can handle. VIRGINIA

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines: You know, I figured Michigan would lose this game when I compiled my preseason predictions. After the two teams' respective showings last week, though, I've changed my mind. Notre Dame couldn't handle a rebuilt South Florida team at home; going on the road to the Big House against a revitalized Wolverine team won't be easy. MICHIGAN in an upset

GAME OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers: The Bulldogs are for real, while the Tigers defense doesn't seem to be. I thought this would be an easy game for the defending National Champs, but now I think the "easy" label goes to the other team. Auburn is capable of great comebacks (just ask Utah State!), but the Bulldogs are a bit tougher on defense than the Aggies. MISSISSIPPI STATE

The rest:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina is making a bid for my first Top 25. A strong win here will help. NORTH CAROLINA

Norfolk State at West Virginia Mountaineers: Easy victory against a FCS also-ran. WEST VIRGINIA

Nevada Wolf Pack at Oregon Ducks: The Ducks need an impressive win to wash away the stink of last week's performance. I think they'll win, but Nevada might make it tough. OREGON

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue Devils: As expected, Duke lost to their FCS opponent (happens most years). This will be another easy victory for Stanford and their new coach. STANFORD

Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates: South Carolina proved that the Pirates' defense is weak this year, so Beamer Ball (which has been extended another three years) will run amok. VIRGINIA TECH

TCU Horned Frogs at Air Force Falcons: TCU has to erase the emotional upset suffered at Waco last week. Air Force let South Dakota score way too much last week, so a porous defense is exactly the opponent TCU wants this week. TCU

Hawaii Warriors at Washington Huskies: I usually pick Hawaii to lose when they leave the islands, but the Huskies' pathetic showing against Eastern Washington exposes weaknesses that the Warriors might be able to exploit. HAWAII

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs: This was a contender for Game of the Week. The Bulldogs showed promise against Boise State last week, but they petered out. The Gamecocks keep fighting until the final gun, which should give them the edge. SOUTH CAROLINA

Charleston Southern at Florida State Seminoles: Another patsy, another easy victory. FLORIDA STATE

New Mexico Lobos at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas continues its battle for division supremacy. ARKANSAS

UAB Blazers at Florida Gators: Maybe Florida won't have such a down year after all, given their performance last week. Getting past tricky UAB will be a true measure. FLORIDA

Houston Cougars at North Texas Mean Green: North Texas was demolished by Florida International, and now the Cougars come to town. What a tough start to the season! HOUSTON

BYU Cougars at Texas Longhorns: In my preseason compilation, I thought this might be a BYU victory. They still might pull it out, but based upon BYU's lackluster performance last week and Texas' awesome victory, I have to go the other way. TEXAS

Utah Utes at USC Trojans: The Utes will exploit USC's exposed weaknesses on offense. Furthermore, the Utes have a better offense than Minnesota. This won't be a close victory for the Trojans; in fact, it won't be a victory for them AT ALL. UTAH

Northwestern State at LSU Tigers: The Tigers get an easy game to relax from the Ducks' game, although I'm not sure they needed it. LSU

NFL 2011 - NFC preview

2011-09-05T19:10:00.000-04:00

This conference has the reigning Super Bowl Champion, but in general I think the AFC has stronger teams. The Number One draft pick will likely be given to a team in this conference, and it might even be the same team.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 6-0 against division opponents): Dream Team? I don't think so. The offense is working, but the defense isn't as strong. Problems during preseason games showed that this team lacks depth at key positions, so injuries will hurt them.

2. Washington Redskins (8-8, 3-3): Why the heck is Washington starting Rex Grossman this weekend? Cripes, the Bears kicked him out because he was erratic. QB John Beck spend the preseason proving that he could lead the team, and can definitely do it better than Grossman. I think the Redskins will hurt themselves during the season by making decisions as stupid as this one.

3. Dallas Cowboys (6-10, 2-4): Rob Ryan has sparked the defense, but the squad is still thin. Injuries will diminish them. Dallas' "December curse" might start as early as the second week of November, depending upon who is healthy. The Cowboys also need more consistent play from Tony Romo and Felix Jones so that the offense can flow.

4. New York Giants (5-11, 1-5): The Giants are falling apart. Is this the same team that beat an unbeaten Patriots in Super Bowl XLII? Actually, it isn't. The Giants have lost so many players from that squad that it ISN'T the same team. This proves that Eli Manning can't produce without high quality support. As the team has lost talent, they've lost offensive power, too.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4, 4-2; 1st round bye): This team is well-set to defend their Super Bowl title. They held onto most of their roster, so they'll compete once again.

2. Detroit Lions (10-6, 4-2; playoffs): The Lions return to the postseason (ending the longest draught in the league) as Matt Stafford and the offense build on their preseason success. The defense even looks good, which is a crucial squad in this division.

3. Chicago Bears (9-7, 3-3): Marion Barber takes over as third down specialist after the Bears release Chester Taylor. That's okay; I'm more concerned about the rotating tackles on their roster. That shows some uncertainty surrounding the defense, and a slim depth at that position. That means injuries could kill their postseason chances.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-12, 1-5): This team is taking a chance on Donovan McNabb. McNabb struggled last season, and I don't think he can completely excuse it on recovering from his injury. I think McNabb is simply getting too old. He can't scramble anymore, which is bad in a league that is seeing faster and faster defenders. He's likely to get injured again in this "black and blue" division, and that brings up journeyman Joe Webb, who has barely played.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (13-3, 5-1; 1st round bye): The Saints are back to 2009 form, when they won the Super Bowl. Actually, they might be slightly better, as they have improved the defense.

2. Atlanta Falcons (12-4, 5-1; playoffs): They have a strong offense and a good defense, but they are thin at places. Defensive injuries could slow them down later in the season.

3. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-9, 2-4): The Bucs have decent squads on both offense and defense, but a tough schedule like theirs demands more than "decent" to be successful. Defense has been a problem in recent years, but the addition of Da'Quan Bowers helps them.

4. Carolina Panthers (2-14, 0-6): Is Cam Newton ready to lead a young and inexperienced wide receiving corps? I'm not sure. The Panthers' offense has additional pressure, as they'll probably have to come from behind in every game, since their defense has problems.

NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (9-7, 4-2): The team gained a boost by obtaining QB Kevin Kolb. As he proved in Philly, he can perform. His passes are strong and his field sense is sharp, something Arizona hasn't had since Kurt Warner left. Kolb has good receivers to support him, and perhaps the best tight end in Todd Heap. The defense has some weak spots, but the offense will be strong enough to win games.

2. St Louis Rams (6-10, 4-2): QB Sam Bradford has some talented targets available to him, but they need to improve on yards after catch. They catch plenty of passes, but scoring is down. Worse, the defense has some holes, so that offense has to perform.

3. San Francisco 49ers (4-12, 3-3): New coach Jim Harbaugh has restored confidence to this team, but how long will that last if the wins don't come? QB Alex Smith is too inconsistent, and RB Frank Gore is getting old and injury-prone. With a secondary that can't seem to keep pace with their opponents, this team is in for a tough year.

4. Seattle Seahawks (2-14, 1-5): Let's face it, Tavaris Jackson is not the solution at quarterback. This team has so many holes, they might as well watch NCAA College Football and decide who they want to draft. They'll have their choice.

NFL 2011 - AFC preview

2011-09-05T17:23:00.000-04:00

It's been an interesting preseason, but at least we had one. There were points during the off-season that we thought a clash of egos would prevent a timely start to the season. Perhaps the tenth anniversary of 9/11, with games in both DC and NYC, gave them added incentive. Whatever the reason, the shortened offseason had caused some interesting shifts in some teams, while others preserved their rosters.

AFC East
1. New York Jets (13-3, 6-0 against divisional opponents; 1st round playoff bye): A favorable schedule makes them a top contender for the AFC crown. They've made two consecutive AFC title games, but stumbled at the finish line. They hope the addition of Plaxico Burress will give them that added boost. He has been slow to get back to form, but he seems heading in that direction.

They need Plaxico to return to form. Mark Sanchez is a capable QB, but he will never be one of the top QBs in the league. He needs a strong roster to support him, which he does. This could be the best year of Rex Ryan's tenure.

2. New England Patriots (10-6, 4-2; playoffs): Chad Ochocinco is, so far, proving a match for QB Tom Brady. The running game is strong with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk. The defense was bolstered in the offseason, but the loss of Brandon Merriweather will hurt the secondary. This team also has a problem with getting careless in games. If they can remain focused, they can compete for the conference title.

3. Miami Dolphins (8-8, 1-5): Reggie Bush has been giving full-time running back duties, something he's never done since his junior year at USC. Can he manage that? The strong offensive line helps, but he still needs to stay in shape to last 75-80% of offensive snaps for 16 weeks. I question his durability.

The running game isn't the only source of concern with Miami. The defensive line has some holes, and the secondary is thin. This makes them susceptible to good running teams, and injuries might make them susceptible to the passing game. They will likely get worse as the season progresses.

4. Buffalo Bills (6-10, 1-5): Quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald looks good, but he has few talented receivers. A limited number of targets means good defenses will cover them. When that happens, the Bills have some decent runners. The problem with all of these is the offensive line. The line is weak, which means Fitzgerald won't have much time to look for alternative receivers, and runners will not be able to gain many yards per carry. In addition, the defense needs some support, too. The fans have high hopes, but this won't be an excellent year for Buffalo.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3, 5-1; 1st round bye): The Steelers have a nice schedule. This team wants to return to the Super Bowl and win it this time, and they might have the chance to do that. They didn't lose much talent in this off-season, so the chance of reaching the Super Bowl is good. The Steelers have had injury problems, and they are likely to be worse this year as many of their talented players are getting old, but the Steelers have a deep enough roster to overcome injuries. The talent of their backups was certainly demonstrated last season, when the team went 3-1 during Big Ben's four-game suspension.

2. Baltimore Ravens (13-3, 5-1; playoffs): They have some new receivers this year, but they're good. Their biggest problem lies in the tight end position, where they lost Todd Heap. Their receiving corps is also somewhat thin, so injuries could slow their offense. Like Pittsburgh, their best defenders are getting old, but they don't quite have the depth on defense that the Steelers do.

3. Cleveland Browns (6-10, 1-5): Colt McCoy leads a thin receiving corps. They have a strong running back in Peyton Hillis, but not much else. Any injuries stop the offense. Their young defense will learn the ropes, but it will take time. In this division, it'll also be a tough education. Worst, the schedule to close the season is terrible.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12, 1-5): Andy Dalton takes over under center as Carson Palmer abandons the team as a final act of defiance regarding the agreement that ended the work stoppage. Principles and ideals are fine, but I don't think his teammates think much of his principles now. Dalton was okay during preseason, but he still needs work. With the release of Cedric Benson, the running game is now fractured. Several new receivers puts the final negative on the offense. The defense has some good spots, but there are enough holes that they won't win without an offense.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (9-7, 5-1): Kerry Collins is likely to play much of the first two games as Peyton's neck keeps him out. The Colts have a deep roster of receivers, as they kept many of the ones they had to bring in last year when injuries devastated their receiving corps. Now they have to deal with giving each receiver enough catches to soothe their egos. The defense, which was their weak point last season, was bolstered by free agency, gaining Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.

2. Houston Texans (9-7, 3-3): This team is talented but underachieving. This team needs to gain consistency, especially against division opponents. They never seem to have both squads working at the same time. Prior to last year, the defense led this team. Last year the offense came on, but the defense fell. If both can play well this year, they could win the division.

3. Tennessee Titans (6-10, 2-4): The Titans have quite a favorable schedule. Matt Hasselbeck takes over as quarterback until Jake Locker is ready. Hasselbeck has to learn an entirely new offensive scheme. He's experienced enough that he will adjust, but it might take some time. More importantly is the timing between his receivers and him.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 2-4): This is a very young and inexperienced receiving corps. The five starters achieved a total of only 1200 yards and five touchdowns last year. They have a good offensive backfield and a strong defense, but that won't be sufficient to reach the playoffs.

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (11-5, 6-0): The Chargers lost little on offense during the off-season, so this will be a high-scoring bunch. Their defense improved with the acquisitions of Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes, so this will be a dangerous team.

2. Oakland Raiders (5-11, 3-3): The Raiders have a good offense, so we'll hope they're smart enough to park Terrell Pryor on the bench. Where they SHOULD have spent their supplemental draft pick was on defense. That squad lost some talent during the off-season, and the best players remaining are aging. Injuries will severely cripple the defense.

3. Denver Broncos (4-12, 2-4): Tim Tebow is the Number 3 quarterback, and he isn't happy about it. He'd be better off sitting down, shutting up, and watching Kyle Orton run the offense. Tebow got used to a plethora of talent when he was at Florida. Denver doesn't have as much, as they have a thin rank of talented receivers. The running game is suffering, too, which is ironic from the team that had the longest stretch of 1000-yard rushers in the league only three years ago.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14, 1-5): While a poor preseason doesn't always predict a poor regular season, I think it does in this case. The defense is weak, the receiving corps is thin, and Matt Cassel has few targets other than Dwayne Bowe. As has been shown in all of their preseason games, defenses can cover Bowe.

NCAA 2011: Week 1 picks

2011-08-31T18:47:00.000-04:00

It's time to start the NCAA football season! I still need to do my NFL preview columns, but college football has always started before the pros. Instead of easing into it, as the NCAA has often done in the past, we get a nearly full slate of games this weekend (only the Ivy League delays their start). Since I don't have a Top 25 yet (and won't for two weeks, as too many teams play FCS schools this week), I'll examine games by teams I predicted to be in the top, as well as my home conference, Big Ten.

Thursday, Sept 1st

Montana State at Utah Utes: Montana State shared the Big Sky Conference title last year. They're good, but not good enough to overcome one of the most powerful teams in FBS. UTAH

New Hampshire at Toledo Rockets: The MAC plays the Big Ten tough, a Colonial Athletic team won't raise a sweat. TOLEDO

UC Davis at Arizona State Sun Devils: One of the top teams in the Pac-12 against a team that was Division II not long ago? This is one-sided contest. ARIZONA STATE

Friday, Sept 2nd

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears: We get two FBS teams, but still not much competition. Baylor may not end up at the bottom of the Big XII, but they won't stand long against the Horned Frogs. TCU

Saturday, Sept 3rd

Big Ten

Akron Zips at Ohio State Buckeyes: Although the MAC tends to play tough against the Big Ten, and Ohio State starts a string of five games without key returning starters, I think the Buckeyes can win this. It may be a very close game, much to the chagrin of Buckeye fans. OHIO STATE

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini don't have much of a team this year, but the Red Wolves won't give them too much trouble. ILLINOIS

Chattanooga at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Now that the Cornhuskers are in the Big Ten, they need to upgrade the quality of their openers. NEBRASKA

Indiana Hoosiers at Ball State Cardinals: Although the Cardinals won't have a good season, they start with an interesting matchup. This game could go either way, although I'll give slight credit to the Hoosiers. Watch out for Ball State, a hard-fighting MAC team, though. INDIANA

Indiana State at Penn State Nittany Lions: Aside from the Nebraska game, likely the most one-sided game of the conference. PENN STATE

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Purdue Boilermakes: Like most of the conference, Purdue gets an easy opponent for their home opener. PURDUE

Minnesota Golden Gophers at USC Trojans: This is the game that spoils the perfect record for the Big Ten. USC doesn't have much to play for, but beating teams from their rival conference IS incentive. Minnesota doesn't have the depth or weapons to stand against the Trojans. USC

Northwestern Wildcats at Boston College Eagles: This game could also go against the Big Ten, but I'll favor the sheer tenacity and ferocity of the Wildcats. NORTHWESTERN in a squeaker

Tennessee Tech at Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes score an easy win, too. IOWA

UNLV Rebels at Wisconsin Badgers: UNLV removes the "Running" part of their team name, probably because their running game isn't much to brag about. Wisconsin's, on the hand, is very potent. WISCONSIN

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines: An in-state rivalry that could result in an upset (and thereby giving Brady Hoke a similar beginning to his term at Michigan as Rich Rodriguez had), but I'll give Hoke and the Wolverines a small edge. MICHIGAN

Youngstown State at Michigan State Spartans: Some Spartan bashers are predicting an upset, but Michigan State's success last year was no fluke. MICHIGAN STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU Tigers at Oregon Ducks: Both teams are competing for a chance to play in the BCS title game. The loser starts off behind in that race. LSU is the favorite of many national analysts, some predicting LSU could win it all. Their defense is traditionally stout, and QB Jordan Jefferson has been consistently a force. However, I don't think LSU has seen the kind of high-powered offense engineered by Oregon for a couple of years. OREGON

The Rest:

Army Black Knights at Northern Illinois Huskies: Army should have a good team this year, but the Huskies are a team battling for a conference title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Boise State Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs: Boise looks to conquer new territory and take Utah's place as a perennial Mountain West favorite. Georgia hasn't been a tough team since the departure of Matt Stafford. BOISE STATE

Bowling Green Falcons at Idaho Vandals: How far have the Falcons fallen? How about the fact that I am NOT picking them? They are the favorite, but I think the Vandals could pull off the upset. IDAHO

BYU Cougars at Ole Miss Rebels: Sorry, Ole Miss fans, no upset here. BYU's move to Independent status may have been financially motivated, but it gives them more chances to play teams from BCS conferences. Unfortunately, Ole Miss won't really help their "strength of schedule" ranking. BYU

Fresno State Bulldogs at California Golden Bears: Cal may hope for an opening win, but Fresno State is a powerful team. Cal has lost some strength, so they're vulnerable. FRESNO STATE

Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators: Florida should win, but Schnellenberger's Owls may make it interesting. FLORIDA

Kent State Golden Flashes at Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama looks to position themselves for a high ranking by winning big, and they picked a good opponent to do that. ALABAMA

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys fast-paced offense will be too much for the Ragin' Cajuns. OKLAHOMA STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles return to an old habit of an easy non-conference schedule as they pulverize the Warhawks. FLORIDA STATE

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Missouri Tigers: The Tigers aren't as strong as they have been recently, but the Redhawks will still have a hard time. MISSOURI

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal: With the return of Andrew Luck, Stanford is a big favorite to make the BCS Championship Game. I'm not so sure, but Stanford will start with a win. STANFORD

South Carolina Gamecocks at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates' mainstay, their defense, is down a bit this season, which gives the Gamecocks a farily easy game. SOUTH CAROLINA

South Florida Bulls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: If South Florida's defense was up to snuff this season, this could be a close game. Unfortunately, the Bulls are down this season, so the Irish have a victory. NOTRE DAME

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners: This should be a huge victory for the Sooners. OKLAHOMA

UCLA Bruins at Houston Cougars: Some people are taking about UCLA's possible resurgence this season. I don't think so. Houston, on the other hand, will be a strong team. HOUSTON

Utah State Aggies at Auburn Tigers: The Tigers begin their national title defense by slaughtering the WAC's perennial doormat. AUBURN

Appalachian State at Virgina Tech Hokies: No FBS upset for Appalachian this season. VIRGINIA TECH

Cal Poly at San Diego State Aztecs: Easy win for the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO

Missouri State at Arkansas Razorbacks: This easy win will give the impression that Arkansas is better than they are. The Razorbacks have talent, but they lost a lot, too. ARKANSAS

Sacramento State at Oregon State Beavers: Another easy victory that belies some of the weaknesses of the winning team. OREGON STATE

Texas State at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Another in-state FBS v FCS matchup that ends with a win for the home FBS team. TEXAS TECH

Sunday, Sept 4th

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers: It won't be a great year for the Big East, but West Virginia will be a force. WEST VIRGINIA

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have all the pieces to make a run for the Big XII title. This win is the first step. TEXAS A&M

Monday, Sept 5th

Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins: Miami has troubled times ahead, and that's going to weigh heavily on them during the season. Maryland is strong enough to start Miami reeling. MARYLAND

NCAA 2011 Preview #3 - Best of the West

2011-08-30T13:04:00.000-04:00

Welcome to the final regional preview for the 2011 college football season. We travel west to examine the expanded Pac-10 (now called the Pac-12), the Mountain West, and WAC.
Pac-12 North
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-1/11-1): The team retained most of their talent from last year, including QB Andrew Luck, but the loss of Coach Harbaugh hurts them. The man is an innovator; he can be beaten by a particular scheme once, but he'll find a way to beat it, either the following year or later in the same game. Without that, can Stanford continue to overwhelm? I'm not sure their opponents this year will throw too many surprises at them, and their schedule helps by giving them their toughest opponents at home.

2. Oregan Ducks (8-1/11-1): The Ducks return most of their starters from last year, as well. The areas that lost the most were the lines, both offensive and defensive. Rebuilding the lines makes their first game, against LSU, tricky. Even if they survive that one, I'm not sure they'll be fully prepared for Stanford.

3. Oregon State Beavers (5-4/6-6): The Beavers are a tough team, but they are suffering from a tough schedule. They'll probably upset an opponent or two, but it won't be enough to reach second place in this division. Like the Ducks, they need to rebuild both lines. They also need to build up an effective running game.

4. Washington Huskies (5-4/7-5): Their new quarterback, whoever that ends up being, has a great support staff behind and beside him. In front of him, though, is a weak offensive line. A solid defense will keep the Huskies in most games, but any team with a fast rushing defense will hold them back.

5. California Golden Bears (3-6/4-8): Whoever becomes the new quarterback will have a great corps of receivers catching his passes. The Bears have a strong offensive line, too, but it is uncertain how good their runners are. A rebuilt defense makes them susceptible to quick and talented offenses, which this conference has aplenty.

6. Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9): This team has plenty of weaknesses. Their running offense is mostly ineffective, and both lines are weak. Their quarterback will be running for his life, and the secondary is too slow to stop opposing quarterbacks.

Pac-12 South
1. Utah Utes (9-0/12-0): A favorable schedule allows the Utes to avoid both Stanford and Oregon until the conference championship. The Utes are solid everywhere, but they are breaking in a new runner. I have a special message to their opponents -- watch out for Utah's special teams!

2. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2/10-2): This is a strong team, they just face two stronger ones on the road.

3. USC Trojans (4-4/6-6): With no bowl game to play for, and a roster thin at key positions, they won't fight hard. USC has no pride now, their history of cheating is exposed. Without a physical prize to play for, the Trojans don't care.

4. Arizona Wildcats (3-5/4-8): A new offensive line and a thin backfield adds up to a weak running game. One-sided offenses don't usually go well. A strong defense may keep many of their games close, but most of those will end up losses.

5. UCLA Bruins (1-7/3-9): Goodbye, Rick Neuheisel. This job is on the line, and this may be his worst season at LA. He has no passing game to speak of, a poor defense, and an injury-prone offensive line. This eliminates any job security Neuheisel may hope for.

6. Colorado Buffaloes (1-7/2-10): This team lacks depth, and they won't be able to withstand the fierce attacks of opponents like Stanford and Oregon. Injuries suffered in those games will cost them winnable games later in the season.

Pac-12 Champion: Stanford Cardinal

Mountain West
1. Boise State Broncos (7-0/12-0): This team is strong everywhere except the kicking game. Somehow I'm not sure they'll need one.

2. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2/10-2): This is the Horned Frogs last year in the Mountain West, but they won't be able to repeat as conference champion. They are breaking in a new quarterback, Casey Pachall. He has great receivers but little running support. That means opposing defenses will force him into third and long situations. A stout defense will prevent Pachall from having to come from behind a large deficit, but it'll still be a tough challenge.

3. San Diego State Aztecs (5-2/9-3): Coach Brady Hoke went to Michigan, where he might engineer the Aztecs only non-conference loss when they meet this season. This team is strong at all positions, but they have an endurance problem. If they can improve their fourth-quarter performance, they could leap over the Frogs.

4. Air Force Falcons (5-2/9-3): A large number of returning starters has the Falcons looking food. Their challenge for 2011 is to reduce turnovers and play more consistently.

5. Colorado State Rams (3-4/5-7): A strong offensive line will protect their quarterback, but the Rams running game is suspect. A fast defense will hold down opponent's big plays, but the Rams won't have many themselves.

6. Wyoming Cowboys (2-5/4-8): Good runners, but a new quarterback and thin receiving corps keeps them grounded. Their starting defense is good, but they lack depth. If they receive injuries, their defense is finished.

7. New Mexico Lobos (1-6/3-9): An experienced quarterback and good receivers make for a strong passing game. Running game seems suspect. Nine starters return on defense, but last year this team had the worst defense in the conference, so defense is definitely their weak point.

8. UNLV Rebels (0-7/1-11): The Rebels lost their best offensive players in the off-season. This team has holes everywhere.

WAC
1. Hawaii Warriors (7-1/9-3): Hawaii with the best defense in the WAC? Yup. The Warriors have an experienced QB, but the rest of the offense is fairly new, so the normally highly productive offense may take some time to develop this year. A favorable schedule and that strong defense will give them the chance.

2. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/8-4): This is a strong team, but their schedule is brutal! They play the toughest Mountain West teams, and then face the Warriors in Hawaii.

3. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-4/6-6): The Wolf Pack suffered key losses on offense. A good defense keeps them in games, and that offense should improve as the season progresses.

4. Utah State Aggies (4-4/6-6): Coach Gary Anderson moved players around, hoping to speed up the defense and shape up the offense. I don't know if it will work, but I do know that it will take time for the players to adjust to their new positions.

5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/4-8): They have a decent running game, but a system of rotating quarterbacks makes their passing game suspect. A weak defense doesn't help their situation, either.

6. San Jose State Spartans (3-5/3-9): The Spartans have a solid defense and a decent corps of receivers. That's the extent of their positive aspects. A new quarterback, inexperienced runners, and restructured offensive line adds up to a questionable team who will struggle all season.

7. New Mexico State Aggies (1-7/1-11): The Aggies have a strong running game, but not much else. They won't survive on a one-sided ground game.

8. Idaho Vandals (0-8/1-11): Idaho returns to the basement as the Vandals struggle to rebuild their defense and passing game.

NCAA Football 2011 Preview #2 - Balance in the Middle

2011-08-27T23:46:00.000-04:00

We move to the center of the country, which has become more interesting with the shrinking of the Big XII and the expansion of the Big Ten. We now have a conference with ten teams, a conference with twelve teams, and those conferences are named "Big Ten" and "Big XII". It makes sense until you realize the the conference with 12 teams is the Big Ten and the conference with ten teams is the Big XII. If the Big Ten hadn't started the Big Ten Network, they wouldn't have had to hold onto the name. Let's hope a marketing genius can determine a better name for the conference that still has "Big Ten" in it.

Big Ten Leaders
1. Wisconsin Badgers (6-2/10-2): The Badgers have a new quarterback, but that's not too important. Their running game has traditionally been their strength, and they have another potent backfield this year. With a powerful offensive line to poke holes and a stingy defense to keep opponents' scores low, the Badgers will be a powerhouse.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-3/8-4): The loss of Coach Tressel and Terrel Pryor, as well as the five-game suspension of other key players, drops the Buckeyes from conference favorite to division also-ran. Still, their roster depth and mighty defense keep them in contention, even if they won't win the division.
3. Purdue Boilermakers (4-4/7-5): They don't have a roster deep with talent. If the Boilermakers can stay healthy, they have a chance to have a great year. Unfortunately, this is the "black and blue" conference, so they'll lose too much by the end of the season.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5/6-6): Down year for the Lions. They have a untried offense and a very tough schedule. They might pull off some surprises, but JoePa is getting a little too predictable.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-5/5-7): I'm happy I'm not going back for Homecoming this year, as I'm afraid my Alma Mater has a long year ahead of them. They have a good passing game, but the departure of Michel Leshoure destroys an already spotty running game. The defense needs work, too.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/3-9): A new coaching staff, new schemes, and lack of experience adds up to a long and tough season for Indiana.

Big Ten Legends
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1/10-2): The Cornhuskers enter the Big Ten conference with the strongest team in the division, and possibly the conference. They have a strong offense. The defense needs a little work, but it won't take much for it to come together.
2. Michigan State Spartans (6-2/10-2): It appears many national analysts think the Spartans tremendous season last year was a fluke. They still think of Michigan State as a basketball school only. They're wrong, though. The Spartans returned many players from last season's conference contender, and the offense remains dangerous. The defense lost a bit from last season, and that bodes ill for a team that lost a couple of games late in the fourth quarter, but I think they'll get everything coordinated midway through the season.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2/10-2): Always a dangerous threat, the Hawkeyes have to replace some key players this season. A favorable schedule gives them time to work their replacements into the scheme.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (5-3/9-3): Another dangerous offense. Their defense needs a bit of work, and they don't quite have the tools of other schools. Northwestern will play hard, but they'll fall short against strong offenses.
5. Michigan Wolverines (1-7/3-9): If new coach Brady Hoke is hoping to have a better first season at Michigan than his predecessor, he'll be disappointed. New offensive coordinator Al Borges is installing a pro system, but quarterback Denard Robinson isn't ready for that. I'm not sure some of his receivers are, either.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10): Not much to say here. As in most years, the Gophers find themselves at the bottom.

Big Ten Champion (in a defensive battle): Wisconsin Badgers

Big XII
1. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1/11-1): This team is strong everywhere. They have a bit of a problem with roster depth, so if they can stay fresh into December, they will be a force.
2. Texas A&M Aggies (8-1/11-1): Plenty of returning starters and a favorable schedule that gives them plenty of home games gives the Aggies their best chance in years to win the conference.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1/11-1): Their offense remains powerful, and their defense is pretty good, too. If they can remain consistent, they might win the conference.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/6-6): This is Tech, so we know they have a great offense. Their defense is weak, though, so they'll get overrun by teams with strong offenses.
5. Missouri Tigers (4-5/6-6): They have to break in a new quarterback, but at least he has a good backfield supporting him. There are some questions about the offensive line, though. Worse, the defense has several holes, which makes it hard in a conference with several strong offenses.
6. Texas Longhorns (3-6/4-8): Another down year for one of the top teams in the conference just a few years ago. This team needs lots of work.
7. Kansas State Wildcats (3-6/5-7): The Wildcats lost their best runner and have a restructured defense. Even their usual easy non-conference schedule won't help them this year.
8. Baylor Bears (2-7/4-8): They have good players on this team, but they seem to run out of steam before the end of the game. If they are better conditioned this season, they might win as many games (or more) as Tech and Missouri, but I doubt it.
9. Iowa State Cyclones (1-8/2-10): The team has some talent, but most of their key positions are filled with players with limited experience. With a year under their belt, this team might be competitive -- next year.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/1-11): The Jayhawks will continue to fall. They have plenty of returning starters, but the team lacks speed and the defense seems confused. Playing against the high-speed offenses prevalent in this conference, that won't work.

Conference USA East
1. Southern Mississippi Golden Eages (6-2/10-2): This team has a strong offense, but a new defensive scheme will take some time to learn.
2. Central Florida Knights (5-3/6-6): The Knights are a decent, but a tough non-conference schedule could weaken their squad, both by demoralizing them and by injuring them.
3. East Carolina Pirates (4-4/4-8): A faster defense than last year should help slow the rate of points scored against them, but if they can't improve their offense, it won't help much.
4. Marshall Thundering Herd (3-5/3-9): The youngest team in the conference in 2010 gained some experience, but it won't be enough to push them to the upper half of the division.
5. UAB Blazers (1-7/2-9): The Blazers have a strong offense, but a weak defense will keep that offense on the field a long time. I don't think they'll last to the fourth quarter against many of their opponents.
6. Memphis Tigers (1-7/2-9): This team needs work on both sides of the ball.

Conference USA West
1. Houston Cougars (7-1/10-2): The return of QB Case Keenum boosts the team's outlook, and keeps opposing defenses on their toes.
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/6-6): Tulsa has plenty of return starters, especially on offense. Unfortunately their defense needs work, and a new system will slow their development.
3. SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6): The Mustangs return many of last year's starters, but a schedule filled with tough road games will prevent them from gaining much momentum.
4. Rice Owls (4-4/4-8): Rice changes their offensive scheme yet again, confusing players who have been learning a new system every year. A thin receiving corps also makes their offense susceptible to injuries.
5. Tulane Green Wave (2-6/3-9): This team has a good running game, but that's about all they have going for them.
6. UTEP Miners (0-8/2-10): With only two starters from 2010 returning, this team in a classic example of a rebuilding project.

Conference USA Champion: Houston Cougars

MAC East
1. Miami Ohio Redhawks (7-1/9-3): The new coaching staff won't have to change much, with so many returning starters. This defense needs some tweaking, but it's already better than most teams in the division.
2. Ohio Bobcats (6-2/9-3): The Bobcats have a strong running game. They need it, as their passing game is weak. A rebuilt defensive line and strong secondary makes it hard to score against them.
3. Temple Owls (5-3/7-5): The defense lost some talent, but I'm even sure new coach Steve Addazio will notice. Addazio focuses on offense. He's going to want a powerful offense. That means Temple needs to improve the performance of whoever wins the quarterback position.
4. Akron Zips (4-4/5-7): They have plenty of returning starters, but since last season's team went 1-11, you wonder how much that experience helps them. It gave them exposure to how some of the other teams play, and that definitely could help.
5. Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8): Ther Bulls have a strong running game, but the rest of their squads are suspect. Their defense will keep them in games with weaker teams, but they won't be able to hold out against stronger teams.
6. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8): The offense has been completely overhauled. The defense didn't need as much work, but they have holes at certain key positions, so they may want to do some modification on that squad as well.
7. Bowling Green Falcons (0-8/2-10): They can't run, they can't stop the run, and their new quarterback isn't consistent in passing. This is not a recipe for success.

MAC West
1. Toledo Rockets (8-0/10-2): Explosive Eric Page gives them the edge in special teams. A strong running and passing game keeps their offense moving. They also have the strongest defense in the conference. If they don't run the table in the MAC, something is strange.
2. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1/10-2): This team has tremendous talent. If the new coaching staff doesn't feel the need to tweak anything, they can give Toledo a run for the division title.
3. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/9-3): Good defense, but their two best pass rushers left. Without them, they have limited pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Give someone that much time, they'll find a receiver.
4. Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-6/4-8): This team has the worst defense in the conference. A strong running game might help them, but this will be a tough season. A great slate of non-conference opponents helps improve their record.
5. Central Michigan Chippewas (1-7/2-10): This team has a poor offense, and practically no running game. Their defense lost their best players. That means another long season for Chippewas fans.
6. Ball State Cardinals (1-7/1-11): The defense has some talent, but they are inconsistent. New coach Pete Lembo likes to pass, but the passing game is anemic.

MAC Champion: Toledo Rockets