NFL 2024 Week 18 Power Rankings and Wildcard Round picks

 There were some surprising results in the last week of the season, and those caused some shakeup in the final Power Rankings.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (15-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) [2]

3.  Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) [5]

4.  Buffalo Bills (13-4) [4]

5.  Minnesota Vikings (14-3) [3]

6.  Baltimore Ravens (12-5) [6]

7.  Green Bay Packers (11-6) [7]

8.  Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) [8]

9.  Washington Commanders (12-5) [9]

10.  Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) [10]

11. Denver Broncos (10-7) [11]

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) [12]

13. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) [13]

14. Seattle Seahawks (10-7) [15]

15. Houston Texans (10-7) [17]

16. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) [14]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  NFC West [3]

3.  AFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Wildcard Round

#5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at #4 Houston Texans (10-7) : These two teams are rather similar.  Both have some talent on offense, but they often fall short.  Both teams rely on tough defenses to stay in games.While Houston has a slightly better defense, the Chargers offense has enough experience to put together a good fourth quarter drive and capture victory.  CHARGES, 24-20

#6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at #3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) : The Steelers have lost their offense.  While their defense is good, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry have shown that they can beat it.  RAVENS, 27-13

#7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at #2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) : It's unusual for all of one conference's games to complete before any of the other conference's. but that's the schedule this postseason.  The Broncos might be the best wildcard team in the AFC, but they face the tenacious and dynamic Bulls offense.  I don't see an upset here.  BILLS, 31-23

#7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) : The Eagles are a bit banged up, and at the time this column is written we do not know how many of those players might play.  I'm not sure it would matter.  After all, the Packers allowed the struggling Bears to beat them in the final week, and they themselves suffered two key injuries in that game, including to QB Jordan Love.  EAGLES, 24-17

#6 Washington Commanders (12=5) at #3 Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) : There is a large gap between the top two seeds in the NFC and the next two.  While Baker Mayfield has the Bucs rolling, the Commanders have a stiff defense and a strong-armed QB of their own.  COMMANDERS, 23-20

#5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at #4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) : The Rams rested many of their players last week, while the Vikings starters were trounced by the Lions in the second half.  Could that make some people believe the Vikings are prepped for an upset?  No, I don't think so.  The Vi,kings held back the Lions for longer than one half, and that's hard to do against their high-powered offense.  The Rams offense doesn't match, so the Vikings defense will hold them back.  VIKINGS, 31-13

NCAA Bowl results and playoff picks

 It was an interesting bowl season.  Bowl seasons will get even more unpredictable unless the NCAA limits the use of the transfer portal.  Even many of the announcers were discussing the overuse of it.  You may not remember, but when the transfer portal was originally created, it was designed mainly for two categories of players: ones who coach is leaving their program (so they can transfer with their coach) or those losing their scholarship.  Now, in the days of NIL, ANYONE can use it, and too many players are.  I watched TWO games where more than half of the starting squad that played during the season were in the transfer portal.  That's ridiculous!  Realize the stupidity, and near futility, or this effort.  There are 134 FBS colleges, with an average of nine graduating players across all three squads (offense, defense, and special teams).  There are only 32 NFL teams.  Most of these players are not transfering to find a good COACH, but a program that will get them national attention, like an SEC, Big Ten, or playoff team.  Folks, that's about 36-38 teams.  Most of the players in the transfer portal won't get what they want.  Furthermore, by transferring every year, they don't really get the training they need, and that will show up in the NFL combine.  Thus, most of these players will NOT get drafted, and their transfers will be for naught.  Since they transferred more often than their course credits could, they also fail to get a degree, so without an NFL offer, they have no future.  Stay in school dudes!

So, how did the conferences end up?  For my rankings, it is based on PURE bowl games.  Those were the 35 games that did not entail any part of the playoffs, since (with the exception of the losing teams), you are getting multiple results from the same team.  In parentheses, I include the playoff records for that confernece:

1.  American Athletic (6-2)

2.  MAC (5-2) : Congratulations to the conference for this record!  The MAC doesn't usually do well in the bowls.

3.  Big Ten (5-3/4-2 in playoffs)

4.  SEC (6-4/ 2-2 in playoffs)

5.  Sun Belt (4-3)

6.  Independents and Washington State/Pac-12 (1-1/2-0 in playoffs)

7.  Big XII (4-4/0-1 in playoffs)

8.  Mountain West (1-3/0-1 in playoffs)

9.  Conference USA (1-4)

10. ACC (2-9/0-2 in playoffs)

The Big Ten's success is especially surprising, since, with the exception of Minnesota, they were matched against teams with better records and/or higher rankings.  They were the underdog in seven out of eight of their bowl games, yet won four games they weren't supposed to.  Even their losses beat the spread, as Purdue lost by three and Washington lost by only one point, after a furious fourth quarter comeback.  The only real disappointments were the Iowa loss and the near-loss by Minnesota.

Based upon the bowl results, and the first two rounds of the playoffs, we have a new Top 25:

Top 25  [Rank at end of season]

1.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (13-1) [2]

2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) [3]

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) [4]

4.  Oregon Ducks (13-1) [1]

5.  Texas Longhorns (13-2) [7]

6.  Ole Miss Rebels (10-3) [10]

7.  Georgia Bulldogs (11-3) [5]

8.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-2) [6]

9.  Tennessee Volunteers (10-3) [8]

10. Boise State Broncos (13-2) [9]

11. Army Black Knights (12-2) [16]

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-3) [11]

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-4) [12]

14. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-3) [14]

15. SMU Mustangs (11-3) [13]

16. BYU Cougars (11-2) [18]

17. UNLV Running Rebels (11-3) [21]

18. Clemson Tigers (10-4) [15]

19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) [17]

20. Memphis Tigers (11-2) [19]

21. Iowa State Cyclones (11-3) [24]

22. Louisville Cardinals (9-4) [22]

23. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [26]

24. Navy Midshipmen (10-3) [25]

25. Illinois Fighting Illini (10-3) [27]

Dropped off: Colorado Buffaloes [#20], Iowa Hawkeyes [#23] 

Playoff picks

Orange Bowl: #1 (7th seed) Notre Dame Fighting Irish v #3 (6th seed) Penn State Nittany Lions : Prior to the Sugar Bowl, I found have picked Note Dame right away.  However, the Bulldogs defense really slowed the Irish offense.  Without a special teams touchdown and an interception return to the red zone, I don't think the Irish would have won.  They will face a defense just as tough in Penn State; perhaps tougher, as the Lions retain more of their regular season starters than Georgia did.  If the Irish use the Sugar Bowl as a wake-up call similar to how Ohio State woke up after their loss to Michigan, then the Irish will triumph.  If not,Penn State could engineer an upset.  NOTRE DAME by six

Cotton Bowl: #2 (8th seed) Ohio State Buckeyes at #5 Texas :Longhorns : The Longhorns may be home, but it won't help them much. They are the team who has struggled the most in victories in the first two rounds, while Ohio State has played with much more intensity and will.  Texas has also faced some key injuries suffered in their last game of the season, the SEC Championship Game, and the playoffs.  Their bench is thinner, and less talented, than that of Ohio State.  I guarantee that the physical Buckeyes defense will force some game time from the bench, and I don't think they can compete.  OHIO STATE by 12

Championship prediction:  I figure Ohio State will be there.  Who will they play?  If Penn State beats the Irish, I don't see the Nittany Lions winning.  The Buckeyes have their number, and they have gotten into the heads of those players.  Now, if the Irish win, it could be an interesting game.  Still, nobody has been producing better game plans then Ohio State OC Chip Kelly, and I don't think the Irish can come back from an early deficit.  Thus, I think OHIO STATE will pull off a SECOND historic Football Championship run.  Remember, the fourth seeded Ohio State team won the first year that the BCS had a four-team playoff, and they might win the first 12-team CFP playoffs.

NFL 2024 Week 17 Power Rankings and Week 18 picks

 The top two seeds in the AFC are set, and all playoff slots are filled except one.  In the NFC, seeds are up for grabs, but all wildcard teams are set, while only one division winner has been determined.  Jockeying for playoff position affected the Power Rankings:

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (14-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) [2]

3.  Minnesota Vikings (14-2) [3]

4.  Buffalo Bills (13-3) [4]

5.  Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) [6]

6.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5) [7]

7.  Green Bay Packers (11-5) [5]

8.  Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) [11]

9.  Washington Commanders (11-5) [9]

10. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-7) [12]

11. Denver Broncos (9-7) [8]

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) [10]

13. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) [14]

14. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) [16]

15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) [15]

16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) [19]

17. Houston Texans (9-7) [13]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  AFC West [2]

3.  NFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

The key to the games in this final week is what teams will rest starters for the playoffs.  That is not likely in the NFC, where important seeds are still up for grabs.  Even among the wildcard teams, who will be on the road, they want to avoid being the seventh seed, and having to face the second best team in the NFC North.

Saturday games

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens : This game will clinch the division for the Ravens.  They have had great success against the Browns, they want the division title, and they want revenge for a loss to the Browns earlier in the season.  Give this one to the Ravens.  RAVENS, 27-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers have been stumbling a bit lately, and the Bengals are good enough to exploit that.  The Steelers will know if they have a chance at the divisional title when this game starts. If the Ravens win, how hard will they fight?  They do have to compete with the Chargers for the fifth seed, so they won't slack off.  STEELERS, 24-17

Sunday early games

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots : The Bills are the second seed.  Bills QB Josh Allen will start and play the first drive, but we won't see him again (he's just starting to maintain his consecutive game record).  Even with a slate of second teamers, the Bills might be able to beat the Patriots, especially with a stiff defensive effort.  BILLS, 16-13

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons : As miniscule as it can be, the Falcons still have a slim shot at the playoffs, but they need a win and lots of help.  That means they won't rest any of their starters, and that crew should be good enough to get past the Panthers, provided the Panthers defense doesn't five Pennix a hard time.  FALCONS, 27-23

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers : The Packers want the sixth seed to prevent playing either Detroit or Minnesota, so they'll play hard.  Given the Bears' woes, it wouldn't matter.  PACK, 24-9

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans : Houston has the fourth seed, so they are likely to rest their starters.  Now the question is whether the Titans will deliberately tank the game?  Likely not.  The Browns are likely to lose against the Ravens, and that will place them in the lead for the top draft pick unless the Giants utterly tank).  TITANS, 13-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts : Neither team is playoff bound, so this is their last game.  Everybody will want to play.  The Colts have looked good in recent weeks, so I have to give them the edge to cap their season with a win.  COLTS, 27-16

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs : It's easy for the Bucs -- if they win, they win the division.  Then they hope the Rams lose so they get the third seed.  BUCS, 28-13

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles : The Eagles have some injuries issues, so how many players will they rest?  Let's face it, they will be the second seed regardless of whether they win or lose, so this game won't matter.  Then the question is, can the Giants beat a rag-tag squad of Eagles?  I don't think the Giants will win, but it will be closer than expected, and should give the Browns the top pick in the draft.  EAGLES, 17-13

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys : The Commanders are in the playoffs, but they don't want to be the seventh seed.  They need a win to stay ahead of the Pack, so they will play.  This will be Zeke's last game with the Cowboys, so the Dallas fans would love for him to have a big game, but I don't see it.  COMMANDERS, 27-17

Sunday late games

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos : Most of the Chiefs starters will rest, so the talented Broncos team gets a win.  BRONCOS, 27-13

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders : The Chargers are in the playoffs.  Now they want the fifth seed.  They'll fight for it in Vegas.  In this case, what happens in Vegas won't stay there, it will affect the entire AFC.  CHARGERS, 17-13

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets : The Dolphins playoff hopes are microscopic.  Doesn't mater.  The Jets are a mess, so the Dolphins should win without the playoff incentive.  DOLPHINS, 16-10

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals : The 49ers just can't get it together for divisional games this season.  CARDINALS, 24-17

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams : The Rams need a win to remain ahead of the Bucs, as they have a better conference record.  The Rams want that third seed, so they will fight and fight hard.  RAMS, 23-17

Sunday night

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions : The battle for the top seed in the NFC!  Sam Darnold has done well with the Vikings, but it's their defense that has really kept them dominant.  That defense faltered against Detroit earlier this season.  I'm not sure it will hold up again, but that's the interesting thing with the second time that teams meet in a season -- they learned some habits in the first meeting.  I favor the Lions, but this game, more than any other this week, could go the other way.  LIONS, 31-27

NFL 2024 Week 16 Power Rankings and Week 17 picks

 Some turmoil within the Power Rankings!  As the playoff races get tight, and injuries mount up, the games get more cut-throat.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (13-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) [2]

3.  Minnesota Vikings (13-2) [4]

4.  Buffalo Bills (12-3) [5]

5.  Green Bay Packers (11-4) [6]

6.  Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) [3]

7.  Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [9]

8.  Denver Broncos (9-6) [7]

9.  Washington Commanders (10-5) [10]

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [8]

11. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) [12]

12. Houston Texans (9-6) [11]

13. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-8) [13]

14. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) [16]

15. Seattle Seahawks (8-7) [14]

16. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) [19]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2 (tie).  NFC West [2]

2 (tie).  AFC West [3]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Christmas Day

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Chiefs keep finding ways to win, and the Steelers offense is a little off-kilter right now.  CHIEFS, 24-20

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans : Both teams have strong defenses and tricky QBs.  Lamar has been doing it a bit longer than Stroud.  RAVENS, 20-17

Thursday night

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears : Wither Bears.  SEAHAWKS, 23-3

Saturday

Los Angels Chargers at New England Patriots : The Pats showed a little power last week, but they couldn't sustain it.  CHARGERS, 24-10

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals : Cincy is picking up, but the Broncos have been a silent but deadly force for most of the season.  BRONCOS, 23-20

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams : The Rams are playing for a divisional title, and that should be sufficient incentive to push them to a win.  RAMS, 26-23

Sunday early games

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : Carolina has won more games than their pint differential should have allowed, and I think it will start to affect them.  The Bucs can be a tugh opponent at home.  BUCS, 27-20

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles : The Eagles play for the division title.  While the Boys would love to play spoiler, I don't see it here.  EAGLES, 27-17

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants : This is a devastating year for the Giants.  COLTS, 24-6

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints : The Saints may not have scored a point on Monday Night, but that's not a normal situation for them this season.  SAINTS, 24-13

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills : At game time, the Bills will know if they have a shot at the top seed.  Since I dn't think they do, the question is how many players will sit out this game?  Even so, I think the Jets will still lose.  Not only do the players seem deflated, but they had very poor clock management this past week.  BILLS, 20-10

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars : Both teams have struggled badly this season, but the Jags have shown life against divisional opponents.  JAGS, 16-13

Sunday late games

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings : The Pack may be playing for the playoffs, while Minnesota wants to keep pace with Detroit.  This will be a close hard-fought game, but I give the slight edge to the home team.  VIKINGS, 27-24

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns : Should be a big win for Miami.  DOLPHINS, 24-13

Sunday night

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders : Battle of the rookie QBs, but Daniels clearly has the edge.  COMMANDERS, 24-17

Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers : The Lions should roll here, maintaining their lead on the top seed.  LIONS, 27-14

NCAA 2024 Bowl games picks 2

 We are eight days into this bowl season, and the Sun Belt continues their annual tradition of early bowl success.  They have the best record of all conferences that have played at least two bowl games.  Of course, that only includes the Gang of Five conferences at this point, but it's still an impressive achievement.

I let off with games on Friday.  Let's finish up the bowl predictions...

Sat Dec 28

Fenway Bowl : UConn Huskies (9-4) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) : UConn may have the better record, but they rarely make a bowl game.  The Tar Heels are more used to this environment.  UConn is more used to this PHYSICAL environment, though, as its likely to be cold and windy in Boston.  That might give them a chance, but I'll still pick the more experienced squad.  NORTH CAROLINA by eight

Pinstripe Bowl : Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Nebraska Conrhuskers (6-6) : Another game where the team with the better record is more used to the conditions, but again I have to pick the underdog.  Nebraska played very well against the tough teams of the Big Ten, and I think the ACC lack of success in the playoffs demonstrate that that conference wasn't nearly as competitive this season.  NEBRASKA by 13

New Mexico Bowl : Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (10-3) v TCU Horned Forgs (8-4) : Another win for the Sun Belt.  LOUISIANA by 14

Camping World Bowl : #24 Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) v #11 Miami Hurricanes (10-2) : Yes, I know the bowl is no longer called that, but I'm being a traditionalist this postseason (haven't you noticed in my earlier posts?).  This is an interesting match-up.  If Iowa State plays up to their potential, they will win.  However, they have made some mistakes when they face pressure, and few teams pressure better than the Canes.  MIAMI by eight

Arizona Bowl : Miami Ohio Redhawks (8-5) v Colorado State Rams (8-4) : I'd love to see Miami Ohio win, but the MAC does not have a good reacord in bowl games.  The Rams will have lots of their fans there, too.  COLORADO STATE by 16

Military Bowl : East Carolina Pirates (7-5) v NC State Wolf Pack (6-6) : The Pirates started the season tough, but had a great run at the end.  They carry that momentum into this bowl game.  Their defense will give NC State some fits, but I'm not sure the Pirates have a good enough offense to close this one out once the Wolf Pack come up with a scheme to get past their defense.  NC STATE by ten

Alamo Bowl : #18 BYU Cougars (10-2) v #20 Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) : What is a bowl game doing playing conference opponents?  The bowls are supposed to be a chance to play teams you rarely face.  Colorado may have had a chance against that doesn't know them.  BYU won't let them get away with their trick plays.  BYU by 16

Independence Bowl : Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) v #16 Army Black Knights : Marshall bowed out of their bowl game, allowing a team with a losing record to play.  This is unfair to Army, who deserves a chance to show off their team against a Power Four opponent.  ARMY by lots

Mon Dec 30

Music City Bowl : #23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) v Missouri Tigers (9-3) : This will likely be a close game.  Missouri certainly has a better offense, as Iowa had some issues on that side of the ball.  Iowa has the much tougher defense.  Defense usually wins close games, which gives Iowa an edge.  IOWA by six

Tues Dec 31

Outback Bowl : #12 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) v Michigan Wolverines (7-5) : Everyone is thinking about Michigan's defeat of Ohio State in "The Game", and believe that the Wolverines have momentum coming into the bowls.  You have to understand the intensity of that rivalry.  I don't think "The Game" truly represents Michigan's skill level.  That said, they might still have a chance to win, as Alabama will have some players skip the bowl game.  I'll still favor the Tide.  ALABAMA by eight

Sun Bowl : #22 Louisville Cardinals (8-4) v Washington Huskies (6-6) : Both teams had difficulties this year, but Washington did not travel well.  LOUISVILLE by 12

Citrus Bowl : #17 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) v Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) : Both teams have strong defenses, so it won't be an explosive game.  That means a single mistake can cost you, and I'm afraid Illinois might make that mistake.  If they play error-free ball, the Illini can win, but I fear that won't be.  SOUTH CAROLINA by three

Texas Bowl : Baylor Bears (8-4) v LSU Tigers (8-4) : Baylor had a great run at the end of the season, but the Tigers just have more talent.  LSU by 17

Thurs Jan 2

Gator Bowl : Duke Blue Devils (9-3) v #10 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) : Duke had a great season, but they just won't be able to compete against the powerful Rebels team.  OLE MISS by 23

Fri Jan 3

First Responder Bowl : North Texas Mean Green (6-6) v Texas State Bobcats (7-5) : The Bobcats can play well, especially against teams with only a marginal defense.  Another Sun Belt win here.  TEXAS STATE by 17

Mayo Bowl : Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : The Gophers have a good offense.  The Hokies defense can probably hold them back for a while, but they will get tired.  So long as Minnesota doesn't shoot themselves, they should win.  MINNESOTA by nine

Sat Jan 4

Bahamas Bowl : Buffalo Bulls (8-4) v Liberty Flames (8-3) : I'd love to see Buffalo win, but the MAC frequently stumbles in bowl games.  LIBERTY by eight

NCAA 2024 Playoff First Round results and Second Round picks

 All of the first round games were pretty one-sided, which wasn't much of a surprise.  Perhaps the biggest surprise is that the game with the closest margin was Texas' bout against Clemson.  Whether that shows some weakness on the Texas squad or just a reflection of Clemson's experience, we're not sure.  The second round mgiht demonstrate that.

The second round is played in traditional bowls, and (whether intentionally or not) there are some appropriate teams playing in those bowls.

Fiesta Bowl : #4 (6th seed) Penn State Nitanny Lions v #9 (3rd seed) Boise State Broncos : Unaligned Fiesta seems the appropriate game for the playoffs' sole Gang of Five representative.  The Broncos have a strong offense, but their biggest plays are yards after the catch on mid-range passes.  However, that is the region on the field where the Lions linebackers roam, and that's the strong point of Linebacker U.  The Broncos may found trouble moving the ball.  What's worse, they win by outscoring their opponents, as their defense is not stellar.  Penn State will dominate.  PENN STATE by 18

Peach Bowl : #7 (5th seed) Texas Longhorns v #14 (4th seed) Arizona State Sun Devils : Clemson was trying to get to this game, which often featured a top ACC team, but they didn't make it.  Now it faces a former Big XII team, now in the SEC, and a former Pac-12 team, now in the Big XII.  Arizona State was a wonderful surprise team this season, as much as Indiana was.  They have talent and manage the ball very well.  Penalties are few among the Sun Devils, but can they withstand the aggressive attack by the Longhorns?  I don't think so.  TEXAS by 14

Rose Bowl : #3 (8th seed) Ohio State Buckeyes v #1 Oregon Ducks : Now this one REALLY looks traditional.  We have a former Pac-12 team facing a top Big Ten team.  THAT'S what I call a Rose Bowl!  This is the rematch of a game that Ohio State should have won, except they got a bit confused and screwed up clock management at the end of the game.  They won't do that again, and the motivation to beat Oregon this time might be enough to propel the Buckeyes to a win.  Either way, this will likely be the closest second round game.  OHIO STATE by three

Sugar Bowl : #2 (7th seed) Notre Dame Fighting Irish v #5 (2nd seed) Georgia Bulldogs : The SEC Champ plays in the Sugar Bowl; that's tradition.  This would have been an interesting game with Georgia QB Carson Beck playing.  While the Bulldogs beat Texas without him, the Irish are an entirely different story.  Their offense is intense, and their defense is a lot tougher than that of Texas.  NOTRE DAME by 13

NFL 2024 Week 15 Power Rankings and Week 16 picks

 Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (12-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) [2]

3.  Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) [3]

4.  Minnesota Vikings (12-2) [4]

5.  Buffalo Bills (11-3) [5]

6.  Green Bay Packers (10-4) [7]

7.   Denver Broncos (9-5) [8]

8.  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) [6]

9.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [11]

10. Washington Commanders (9-5) [10]

11. Houston Texans (9-5) [12]

12. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) [9]

13. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-7) [14]

14. Seattle Seahawks (8-6) [13]

15. Arizona Cardinals (7-7) [16]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  NFC West [4]

3.  AFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [3]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Thursday night

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers : This game will be very close.  Denver has silently been having a tremendous year.  The Chargers can play very well, but they also sometimes stumble.  I like the Broncos here.  BRONCOS, 27-24

Saturday afternoon

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs : Patrik Mahomes is hurt.  He may feel well enough to play, and may want to play, but with two weeks remaining in the regular season, the smart thing to do would be to sit him down.  Don't risk him getting hurt worse.  They've won the division, they nearly have a lock on the top seed, and they need him for the postseason.  With him out, they won't win.  TEXANS, 20-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens : Between these two teams, it could go either way.  The Steelers have looked better recently, but never count the Ravens out.  Given the state of both team's rosters, I like the strength of the Ravens defense in this game.  RAVENS, 17-16

Sunday early games

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers : Now team has a larger margin of loss than the Panthers.  CARDINALS, 30-10

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals : The Browns are fading.  BENGALS, 24-13

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears : The Lions defense is thinning, but the Bears offense is struggling so much, they don't need them.  LIONS, 31-16

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets : The Rams are winning the NFC West, and they seem to have found some rhythm.  The Jets are in chaos.  RAMS, 26-13

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons : The Giants aren't doing much better.  FALCONS, 27-16

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders : The Commanders have been doing well, mostly due their fabulous rookie QB, but the Eagles are intense.  Thanks to a Lions loss last week, the Eagles are playing for the top seed, and that will motivate them.  EAGLES, 34-30

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts : The Titans have fallen apart this season, and I'm not sure they can even play spoiler here at the end.  COLTS, 20-16

Sunday late games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders : The Raiders keep falling short, and I think a Jags late fourth-quarter drive will sink them again.  JAGS, 16-13

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks : The Vikings offense will just overwhelm the Seahawks defense, and the offense won't be able to keep pace.  VIKINGS, 34-16

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills : The hottest team in the AFC right now is the Bills. and they will continue this red-hot streak.  BILLS, 31-16

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins : Tua can be tough at home, but he has been a bit off-target recently.  That can only help the 49ers, although they have injury problems of their own.  The Dolphins could win this game.  49ERS, 20-17

Sunday night

Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys : The Cowboys had early success, but they are facing tough times now.  They often play well at home in nationally-televised games, but I think the Bucs stop them here.  BUCS, 24-16

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers : The Pack will march over the Saints.  PACK, 30-20