NCAA Week 5 picks

Let's finish last week before we look at this week.  We had four fantastic upsets this week.  None of them involved FCS teams; we already have more FCS v FBS upsets (seven) than any other year.  No, this time it was FBS teams beating up on each other, and the state of Mississippi led the charge.  Mississippi State, perennial doormat in the SEC, pushed around the Georgia Bulldogs to win 24-12.  This one wasn't a tremendous shocker, as Mississippi State recently has won one SEC upset each year, and Georgia hasn't been great.  However, the Ole Miss Rebels had the bigger blast.  After all, the Rebels had the first loss to a FCS team this season, and they've looked God awful.  Saturday, however, they scored 55 points to up-end the Fresno State Bulldogs (hmm, two upsets by Mississippi teams against Bulldgos.  They don't seem to like that breed!).

The SEC wasn't the only source of upsets.  The ACC threw in one, and it was a shut-out besides.  Virginia Tech had struggled in the early part of the season, while Boston College was competing for top team in the conference.  The Hokies came to town, and they completely shut down the Eagles' offense, winning 19-0.  It marked redemption for Virginia Tech, and put a scare into BC Coach Frank Spaziani.

That was impressive, but perhaps the most significant upset happened in Austin, Texas.  The UCLA Bruins, after being a preseason Top 25 team, started the season struggling badly.  They lost to Kansas State, a team who typically struggles early against decent teams, and were shut out by Stanford.  Even a victory against Houston couldn't perk up Coach Rich Neuheisel.  So the team rolled into Austin to face a National Championship contender, and Top 25 team.  Nobody was thinking back to the last time UCLA met Texas on their home turf, a 1997 match-up when a winless Bruins team routed 11th ranked Texas 66-3.  Although the score was much different, the result was the same, as UCLA defeated Texas 34-12 and tumbled them to the bottom of the Top 25.  Now Texas has to travel to Norman to face Top 10 Oklahoma.  Will the UCLA upset trigger a downward spiral, just like 1997, or will the Longhorns get themsevles motivated against their hated rival?  Hold on, we'll get to that game.

Thurs Sept 30
Texas A&M Aggies at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Aggies have started the season well, but now they enter Big XII conference play, and they played opponents too weak to properly prepare.  Worse, they start against the toughest offense in the conference.  COWBOYS

Fri Oct 1
BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies:  Different Aggies team, same result.  BYU gets to reverse their disasterous season by beating the Aggies.  If the Aggies pull off the upset, BYU might as well write off this season and start planning for next year.  BYU

Top Ten
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini have proven to be better than I expected, but upsetting Ohio State might be asking too much.  Of course, Illinois is the only team to upset the Buckeyes twice in Jim Tressel's reign, so I can't dismiss the possibility.  Still, it seems like Ohio State should wrap up this game early.  OHIO STATE

#7 Florida Gators at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Perhaps the most exciting SEC contest happens early.  If Alabama gets past the Gators, their trip to Baton Rouge to face LSU might be the only obstacle to a second consecutive unbeaten season.  ALABAMA

#9 Stanford Cardinal at #3 Oregon Ducks:  Our second battle of Top Ten teams, but this time I go out on a limb and pick the upset.  Stanford has been impressive so far this season.  Oregon has made me a believe, believing they can move their offense without disgraced QB Jeremiah Masoli, but Stanford can be tricky.  Ever since Jim Harbough arrived, the Cardinal has beaten one ranked (or nearly so) Pac-10 team each season.  While Stanford is now among the ranks of the ranked, I think Oregon will be the target this season, especially since they have suffered a conference upset at home for each of the past four years.  STANFORD

#6 Boise State Broncos at New Mexico State Aggies:  This should be an easy game for the Broncos.  BOISE STATE

#10 TCU Horned Frogs at Colorado State Rams:  The Rams have had a horrendous year, losing to everyone but hapless Idaho, and they only beat the Vandals by two.  This should be an easy battle for TCU.  TCU

#12 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers:  Indiana has had it easy so far.  This contest will truly test them, and I think they'll fail.  Michigan has shown that they have it together, saving Rich Rodriquez's job and placing them in second place in the strong Big 10 conference.  MICHIGAN

#13 Nevada Wolfpack at UNLV Running Rebels:  With Fresno State's loss, Nevada is the favorite to be the strongest team that will remain in the WAC (once Boise State leaves for the Mountain West).  Nevada is having a powerful season, as their offense is running over everyone.  UNLV is next.  NEVADA

Tennessee Volunteers at #14 LSU Tigers:  The Vols are trying to rebuild, but the LSU defense will stifle them.  LSU

Washington Huskies at #15 USC Trojans:  Washington and Jake Locker aren't living up to preseason hype.  Locker's name is quickly fading from Heisman ballots, and Washington's chances are looking bleak.  After this game, they'll be grim.  USC

#20 Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Michigan State Spartans:  This should be a close game.  The Badgers usually find a way to win, so I'm tempted to pick them, but Sparty has shown some unexpected strength this season.  They might surprise the Badgers, so I'll pick them, but watch out for Wisconsin.  MICHIGAN STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Indians at #17 Auburn Tigers:  Auburn has played mostly close games this season, but they've won them all.  If they don't let themselves get overconfident after their victory over South Carolina, they should have no problem against the Indians.  AUBURN

#19 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones:  I don't think the Raiders needed an extra week to prepare for the Cyclones, although their defense can always use some extra practice.  The offense, though not as powerful as when Mike Leach was coaching, is ready to roll over their opponents.  TEXAS TECH

Penn State Nittany Lions at #21 Iowa Hawkeyes:  For the past two seasons, the Iowa Hawkeyes have been a major obstacle to the Nittany Lions' attempt to win a Big Ten title.  They want revenge, but the Lions have been struggling with freshman Rob Bolden under center.  RB Evan Royster regained his form on Saturday, but they played long-time opponent Temple.  While Penn State wants to get past Iowa, the Hawkeyes offense, led by 5th-year senior QB Ricky Stanzi, is firing on all cylinders, and their defense isn't so bad either.  IOWA

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  This has not been a good year for the Gophers.  They'd love to win their conference opener, but I don't think so.  NORTHWESTERN

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #24 Texas Longhorns at #8 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Red River Rivalry plays early this season, as the Longhorns hope to recover from their embarrasing loss to UCLA by beating their rival.  That won't be easy.  The Sooners offense is powerful, and defensive mistakes marred the second half against the Bruins.  Texas has had the upper hand in this rivalry in recent years, but Oklahoma wants to make the most of this situation.  Texas' offense has sputtered under Garret Gilbert, and if the defense doesn't get it together, Texas has no chance.  OKLAHOMA

Other Games of Interest:
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson Tigers:  Miami has been trying to live up to preseason hype, but their performance has been mediocre.  Yes, they scored against a tough Ohio State defense, but that same defense forced too many turnovers and mistakes.  Clemson may not force as many, but they know how to capitalize on the ones Miami may make.  CLEMSON

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons:  Navy has ruled the service academies in recent years, but the team is sinking this season; they even trail Army!  Air Force is doing well in the competitive Mountain West, so Navy won't be too much of a challenge.  AIR FORCE

East Carolina Pirates at North Carolina Tar Heels:  The Pirates had an extra week to prepare, and the Tar Heels have been disappointing so far.  Looks like the Pirates get back on track.  EAST CAROLINA

Washington State Cougars at UCLA Bruins:  If the Bruins don't burn themselves out from celebrating their Texas victory, this should be the game that pushes them to a winning record.  It would cap a great turnaround from a 0-2 start that included the terrible shutout against Stanford.  UCLA

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers:  The Beavers could surprise, but the Sun Devils are a strong team.  While the upset is an option, I'll go the safe route on this Pac-10 batle.  ARIZONA STATE

NCAA Week 4 Top 25

I have plenty of "On the Edge" teams this week, a tribute to the performance of teams who battled Top 25 teams to the very limits.  One is UCLA, who actually upset Texas.  If that's the start of a turnaround for them, then the Bruins could soon find themselves here.

This week's rank [Last week's]
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [2]
2.  Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1]
3. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [3]
4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [4]
5.  Utah Utes (4-0) [5]
6.  Boise State Broncos (3-0) [6]
7.  Florida Gators (4-0) [11]
8.  Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [7]
9.  Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [13]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [10]
11. Arizona Wildcats (4-0) [9]
12. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [15]
13. Nevada Wolfpack (4-0) [17]
14. LSU Tigers (4-0) [16]
15. USC Trojans (4-0) [NR]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-0) [20]
17. Auburn Tigers (4-0) [23]
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) [18]
19. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) [19]
20. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [21]
21. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) [22]
22. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (4-0) [NR]
23. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1) [24]
24. Texas Longhorns (3-1) [12]
25. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1) [8]

On the Edge:  Texas A&M Aggies (3-0), Kansas State Wildcats (4-0), Missouri Tigers (4-0), Houston Cougars (3-1), Air Force Falcons (3-1), West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1), Clemson Tigers (2-1), East Carolina Pirates (2-1), California Golden Bears (2-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-2), UCLA Bruins (2-2)

Dropped off:  Fresno State Bulldogs [#14], Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#25]

NFL Week 3 picks

The first two weeks have produced some interestug results, including a 2-0 Bears and 0-2 Vikings, 2-0 Chiefs and 0-2 49ers, and 0-2 Cowboys and 2-0 Texans.  Two of those pairs face off this week.

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0):  Falcons have a strong offense, but I have to favor the Saints here.  Their offense hasn't been stellar, but theylve defended their Super Bowl title well, and I think their defense will continue to shine.  SAINTS, 21-14

Buffalo Bills (0-2) at New England Patriots (1-1):  The Bills woes will continue as the Pats roll.  PATS, 23-17

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):  Defense will rule in this game, and that gives the advantage to the Bengals.  BENGALS, 17-10

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1):  I think having Braylon Edwards play will be more of a distraction than a benefit.  Given the Ravens' defense, it wouldn't have made a difference anyway.  RAVENS, 13-10

Dallas Cowboys (0-2) at Houston Texans (2-0):  Dallas is a team struggling for consistency, while the Texans' defense is squeezing opponents.  Houston has been gradually improving themselves each season.  Meanwhile, Dallas has lost their cohesion, and they just aren't working together.  Houston's defense can take advantage of that.  TEXANS, 23-17

Detroit Lions (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):  Minnesota has got to get it together!  Favre has been playing half-heartedly in the first two weeks, but he looks tired of taking the grief.  He'll step it up, and propel the Vikings to their first victory.  The only question is, will he push himself too hard, and hurt himself?  VIKES, 24-16

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at Tampa Bay Bucs (2-0):  Defense will be the primary force in this game, as neither quarterback is stellar.  The Steelers have the better defense, so they have the edge in this game, but the Bucs have been pulling off some amazing plays this season, so an upset is possible.  STEELERS, 13-10

San Francisco 49ers (0-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0):  A question on 1st and Ten this week focussed on which NFL record was the most surprising.  KC's 2-0 finished second (behind Tampa Bay).  KC had my vote.  The Chiefs seem to be playing above themselves recently.  At some point that will end, and the 49ers defense seems to be a good place to end it.  If I'm wrong, though, the surprise will continue.  49ERS, 17-6

Tennessee Titans (0-2) at New York Giants (1-1):  The Giants defense will keep Tennessee on its toes.  The Titans have a strong rush defense, so the Giants' strength will struggle, but Eli and company are clever enough to come up with alternatives.  GIANTS, 24-13

Sunday late games
Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1):  The Colts offense hasn't been stellar the first two weeks, but Denver doesn't have a defense on the same level of Houston and the Giants, and even the Giants defense couldn't hold them back for four full quarters.  COLTS, 24-13

Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1):  The Raiders are hoping Bruce Gradkowski will be the solution at QB, as Jason Campbell has struggled.  The problem is that Oakland has used Gradkowski before, to spell JaMarcus Russell.  Gradkowski does well the first game, then declines.  Could Oakland be desperate enough for a one-game advantage?  Derek Anderson is doing okay under center, but the Cards are used to the aerial dynamics of Kurt Warner.  They are losing patience with Anderson's slower pace.  If the Raiders do well, could that cost Anderson the starting job?  That's the future.  My job is to pick a winner.  I like Arizona's chances, but the switch to Gradkowski could boost the Raiders.  CARDS, 14-13

Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1):  Michael Vick takes over as starting QB.  That's not too surprising, as Vick has been dynamic, but will the pressure of the starting job send him back to destructive habits?  He should do well this week; it'll be between games where the real pressure lies.  EAGLES, 27-20

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1):  Here's two teams going in different directions.  San Diego was skunked in the opening week, and then redeemed themselves last week.  Seattle had a colossal opening game and struggled last week, especially on defense.  If their defense falters again, San Diego will soar.  I think the Seahawks' offense will wake up, but the defense will still give too much room for the Chargers.  CHARGERS, 34-23

Washington Redskins (1-1) at St Louis Rams (0-2):  The Rams are trying to improve, but the Redskins defense won't make that an easy process.  REDSKINS, 20-10

Sunday evening: New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0):  A lot of people think Miami is the Cinderella team of this season, and think they'll finish the trifecta of division games with a 3-0 record.  I think the results of the past two weeks will inspire the Jets to "up" their game, making this a more defensive game.  Miami's defense is good, though, so this will be a close one.  JETS, 17-13

Monday Night Football:  Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (2-0):  I'll get to see my Bears for the second week in a row, but it may not end as well as last week's.  Green Bay is much more potent than Dallas, and some defensive injuries make the Bears more vulnerable.  PACK, 24-16

NCAA Week 4 picks

We've had some exciting games so far this season; let's see if this week adds to that total!

Thurs Sept 23
Miami Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Panthers:  Pitt looks to scratch back into the Top 25, but Miami will be a tough team to beat.  The Hurricanes might have beaten Ohio State if not for turnovers.  If they do that again, Pitt will capitalize.  I think Pitt can win, but Miami could pull this out.  PITT

Fri Sept 24
#10 TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs:  SMU has a decent team this year, but it won't be good enough to upset the Horned Frogs, who are chasing another unbeaten record.  TCU

Top Ten
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #24 Arkansas Razorbacks:  Can Razorback QB Ryan Mallet get past the stingy defense of Alabama?  The Tide crushed Penn State, but they had a freshman quarterback.  Mallet's been in this situation before, against Ohio State (when he was at Michigan) and various SEC teams.  Unfortunately, he has more frequently lost against tough defenses than he has won.  ALABAMA

East Michigan Eagles at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Although the MAC has done well against the Big Ten, this is one game where they will come up empty.  OHIO STATE

#3 Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils:  The Sun Devils have a difficult early schedule, but they've handled it well so far.  Can they continue that?  I think they'll play the offensive leader tighter than the Ducks would like, but clearly the Ducks have the upper hand in the Pac-10 this season.  OREGON

San Jose State Spartans at #5 Utah Utes:  The Utes should roll again as they look to win their last year in the Mountain West.  UTAH

Oregon State Beavers at #6 Boise State Broncos:  My runner-up for Game of the Week, the Beavers should give Boise State more problems than they'd like.  I think the Broncos will prevail on their legendary blue turf, but it'll be a closer game than any Bronco fan would like.  BOISE STATE

#7 Oklahoma Sooners at Cincinnati Bearcats:  Cincy didn't start the season well, and this game will only add to their woes.  OKLAHOMA

California Golden Bears at #9 Arizona Wildcats:  Cal is looking to re-enter the Top 25, but they'd need to upset the Wildcats to do that.  Arizona played Iowa very well last week, even though the Hawkeyes nearly came from behind to win, so I think they'll hold back the Golden Bears.  This game could also go to the final minute, though.  ARIZONA

Kentucky Wildcats at #11 Florida Gators:  The Gators don't have Tim Tebow, but they haven't skipped a beat yet.  Kentucky won't be a tough opponent.  FLORIDA

UCLA Bruins at #12 Texas Longhorns:  Wither UCLA.  They were picked by many to compete in the Pac-10, but a 1-2 start (including a loss to a FCS team) puts their season in jeopardy.  TEXAS

#13 Stanford Cardinal at #25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  The Irish are waiting for non-ranked team.  They might get it in Boston College, but if BC does well and other teams lose, it might take until Western Michigan on Oct 16th.  STANFORD

#14 Fresno State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels:  It hasn't been a good beginning for Ole Miss; they were the first team to lose to a FCS team.  For Fresno State, this is just a warm-up.  FRESNO STATE

Bolwing Green Falcons at #15 Michigan Wolverines:  Rich Rod's system is finally taking hold in Michigan.  They should go into conference play unbeaten.  Of course, conference play is what killed them last year.  MICHIGAN

West Virginia Mountaineers at #16 LSU Tigers:  This will be a real test of LSU's revived defense, as the Mountaineers can move the ball.  They haven't quite been as efficient at it so far this year, which should give LSU its chance.  LSU

#17 Nevada Wolf Pack at BYU Cougars:  When the season began, I would have picked this game to finish differently.  However, BYU has looked sickly while Nevada has pounded their opponents.  The Wolf Pack has actually been the most impressive WAC team so far, but they haven't reached the toughest part of their schedule yet.  NEVADA

South Dakota State at #18 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  The Dakota schools have been impressive so far, but this one should be too much for South Dakota State.  NEBRASKA

Northern Colorado Bears at #20 Michigan State Spartans:  The Bears have been impressive, but beating Michigan State will be just out of their reach.  MICHIGAN STATE

Austin Peay Governors at #21 Wisconsin Badgers:  A second Big Ten v FCS match-up, a similar result.  WISCONSIN

Ball State Cardinals at #22 Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa wants to redeem themselves from the close loss at Arizona, so they'll be battling right out of the gate.  IOWA

Big Ten
Central Michigan Chippewas at Northwestern Wildcats:  Here's a MAC team capable of upsetting its Big Ten opponent, but I'll pick the Wildcats.  They can be sneaky.  Central Michigan might lead going into the fourth quarter, but Northwestern will find a way to win.  NORTHWESTERN

Toledo Rockets at Purdue Boilermakers:  Here's the MAC upset pick!  Toledo is deceptively good this season, while Purdue has looked mediocre.  Purdue could win this game, but the MAC succeeds enough times that I have to go with the upset here.  TOLEDO

Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State shut out Kent State last week to help rease the sting of the Alabama game, but they still have a tart taste in their mouths from that loss.  Look for them to take it out on Temple.  PENN STATE

Akron Zips at Indiana Hoosiers:  Akron looks pathetic, so Indy should have this one wrapped up before the fourth quarter.  INDIANA

Northern Illinois Huskies at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota has stuggled this season, but it hasn't been a picnic for the Huskies, either.  I'll pick the home team, but watch for another upset.  MINNESOTA

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #8 South Carolina Gamecocks at #23 Auburn Tigers:  HUGE match-up in the SEC, as South Carolina proves that they deserve their Top 10 rank.  Auburn's defense is strong, but South Carolina has a good defense, too.  The difference will be who moves the ball better, and who has fewer turnovers.  South Carolina is disciplined and offensively balanced, so I have to give them the edge to win this game.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Other Games of Interest
NC State Wolfpack at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  NC State has started with a surprising 3-0 record, but this is their first real challenge of the season.  Tech is strong, especially on defense, and I think the Wolfpack offense still needs time to gel.  GEORGIA TECH

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles:  Tech is having a terrible season so far.  Beating BC would be a great way to recover, but I think the Eagles are too strong for them.  BC might reach the Top 25 with a commanding victory.  BOSTON COLLEGE

NCAA Week 3 Top 25

Stanford is still playing, but their victory is assured, and a couple more scores won't move them up or down.  Michigan avoids ANOTHER FCS loss under Rich Rodriguez, but UMass played them too close for comfort.  Houston proved overblown, and East Carolina let me down.  The Big Ten v Pac-10 matchups were as exciting as expected, and the conferences split the games.  Cal fell to Nevada, and it was a tough week overall for the Pac-10, as Jake Locker takes Washington out of Top 25 contention for several weeks with an awful performance.

Top 25 [Last week's rank]
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1]
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) [2]
3.  Oregon Ducks (3-0) [3]
4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [8]
5.  Utah Utes (3-0) [9]
6.  Boise State Broncos (2-0) [6]
7.  Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [5]
8.  South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0) [4]
9.  Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [11]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) [10]
11. Florida Gators (3-0) [14]
12. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [15]
13. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [16]
14 Fresno State Bulldogs (2-0) [12]
15. Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [13]
16. LSU Tigers (3-0) [19]
17. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-0) [NR]
18. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) [22]
19. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) [18]

20. Michigan State Spartans (3-0) [20]
21. Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) [21]
22. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) [17]
23. Auburn Tigers (3-0) [NR]
24. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) [NR]
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2) [25] - A team with a losing record in the Top 25?  The Irish have played teams ranked higher very tough, taking them to the final seconds.  That deserves it!

On the Edge:  Texas A&M Aggies (3-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1), Air Force Falcons (2-1), USC Trojans (3-0), Missouri Tigers (3-0), West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0), Clemson Tigers (2-1), East Carolina Pirates (2-1), Pittsburgh Panthers (1-1)

Dropped: California Golden Bears [#7], East Carolina Pirates [#23], Pittsburgh Panthers [#24]

NFL Week 2 picks

It was an interesting week last week, as several favorites lost.  Chicago benefitted from a bad call, San Francisco's vaulted defense disintegrated, and the Jets' offense evaporated.  For the Jets, that's a continuation of preseason difficulties.  Things don't look good for Mark Sanchez; even Joe Namath had to come onscreen during HBO's Hard Knocks to show the second year QB how to take quick snaps.

EAR:LY GAMES:
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons:  Atlanta played well against the Steelers' stingy defense last week.  The Cards defense is good, but not on the same level.  On the other side of the ball, the Cards' offense wasn't impressive against a weak Rams defense.  The Falcons defense is slightly better, and the offense is much better than what the Cards' defense saw last week.  FALCONS, 24-16

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals:  While TO and Ochocinco are still getting along, their play is less than impressive.  The Ravens pestered Sanchez and the Jets incessantly last week.  They should do that again this week; both TO and Ochocinco play with lots of emotion.  If the Ravens can upset them, they'll make mistakes.  RAVENS, 16-13

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers:  Aaron Rodgers continued the huge numbers he produced during the preseason.  With Favre looking gimpy and Kurt Warner retired, only Drew Brees stands in his way to be the top NFC quarterback.  He'll continue to chase that title in this game.  PACK, 28-13

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys:  Could the Bears go 2-0?  Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense was still terrible; they haven't improved from their awkward preseason performances.  With the Bears defense mostly healthy right now (which likely won't last), I like the chance of a shutout.  I won't pick that, but the Bears will effectively shut down the 'Boys.  With no stress to come from behind, Cutler should have enough calm to concentrate on what he's doing and have a decent game.  BEARS, 17-6

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns:  Could the Chiefs be the best AFC West team?  I don't think it'll remain that way all season, as their bench is thin, but they certainly looked better than any other AFC West team last week.  Given the Browns' woes, that image should continue.  CHIEFS, 20-10

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings:  Miami had to settle for field goals last week.  I think that's all they'll get this week, too, but the result will be quite different.  The Vikings offense is too fast for the Dolphins' D, so the Vikes will take an early lead, and build upon that.  VIKINGS, 27-9

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions:  The Lions should have won last week's game.  That'll give them some incentive, but the Eagles have something to prove, too, or at least Michael Vick does.  With Kolb out with injury, it's Vick's time to start.  He'll turn that into a victory.  EAGLES, 24-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans:  That stifling Steelers defense will be on display this week, and they'll shut down Steve Young and the Titans.  No concerns about an absent Ben Roethlisberger in this game.  STEELERS, 17-10

Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers:  Whoa, this game could go either way!  I have to pick the home team in these close combats, especially since the Bucs still have a problem with turnovers - a costly late one will kill them.  PANTHERS, 23-20

LATE GAMES:
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins:  The Redskins had a chance to roll over Dallas as they struggled, but they couldn't.  The Texans, meanwhile, were a dominant force last week.  I think that'll continue this week.  TEXANS, 23-13

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers:  I think last week's Monday Night game was a fluke.  The Chargers are still a strong team, and they'll show that this week.  CHARGERS, 20-13

New England Patriots at New York Jets:  The Jets will get booed as their offense continues to struggle, while the Pats drill them with their slow and precise offense.  PATS, 23-10

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos:  Seattle's offense impressed me greatly last week.  As much as I dislike Pete Carroll, he's got something going with this team.  SEAHAWKS, 30-20

St Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders:  Sam Bradford hurt his shoulder again, although he'll be playing.  The Raiders defense may make him regret that decision, though.  RAIDERS, 13-10

SUNDAY NIGHT:
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts:  You know, they could have scheduled this as a double-header in Giants Stadium.  God knows the New York fans would love a good game after what will undoubtedly be a Jets disaster.  You think the Giants would have the benefit, given their defense and the Colts' struggles last week, but the elder Manning has usually had the upper hand against the younger, and I think Peyton will win this Battle of the Mannings.  COLTS, 24-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers:  Mike Singletary has plenty of work to improve his team from last week's debacle, while the Saints are defending their Super Bowl title.  The Saints squeezed out another close call against the Vikings last week, but they should soar against the 49ers if they can't correct last week's problems.  SAINTS, 31-10

NCAA Week 3 picks

Thurs Sept 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at NC State Wolfpack:  This game could go either way, so I'm going to start the week with an upset pick.  Cincy hasn't been strong, so I'll pick NC STATE.

Fri Sept 17
Kansas Jayhawks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles:  Kansas has definitely slipped back this season.  Their offense isn't moving with nearly the same precision as they had the past three years.  SOUTHERN MISS

#7 California Golden Bears at Nevada Wolfpack:  Nevada's a good team this year, but Cal is very powerful.  No upset here.  CAL

Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Duke Blue Devils:  This should be a very one-sided game.  ALBAMA

Ohio Bobcats at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Although MAC teams do well against Big Ten, the Buckeyes should easily win this battle of Ohio, sweeping Ohio teams this season.  OHIO STATE

Portland State Vikings at #3 Oregon Ducks:  The Ducks face a mediocre FCS team.  This one's obvious.  OREGON

Furman Paladins at #4 South Carolina Gamecocks:  Furman is a better FCS team, but I don't think they'll beat the Gamecocks.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Air Force Falcons at #5 Oklahoma Sooners:  Air Force has been a surprisingly strong force so far this seaosn, but they aren't strong enough to knock off the Sooners.  OKLAHOMA

#6 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys:  Boise should continue their unbeaten streak, although Wyoming won't roll over easily.  BOISE STATE

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #8 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Tulsa gave themselves a tough schedule.  They've played well, but I think the Cowboys will simply overpower them.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#9 Utah Utes at New Mexico Lobos:  New Mexico is better this seaosn than usual, but not good enough to upset Utah.  UTAH

Baylor Bears at #10 TCU Horned Frogs:  TCU should roll over the poor Bears.  TCU

#17 Iowa Hawkeyes at #11 Arizona Wildcats:  These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this game is practically a tossup.  I should pick the home team in that case, but I can't quite ignore the drive and determination of Rick Stanzi, and I have to favor a Big Ten team against a Pac-10 team.  IOWA

#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies:  Utah State isn't a strong team, so this should be an easy game for the Bulldogs.  FRESNO STATE

Massachusetts Minutemen at #13 Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan will roll over this FCS powerhouse.  They won't DARE let another "Appalachian State" happen!  MICHIGAN

#14 Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers:  Tennessee isn't the SEC force they used to be, although they tend to play Florida tough.  This might be a closer game than Urban Meyer might like, but Florida should still prevail.  FLORIDA

#15 Texas Longhorns at #18 Texas Tech Red Raiders:  This should be a nice high-scoring game.  The difference will be Texas' defense, which should slow Tech enough for the Longhorns to gain a lead.  TEXAS

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #16 Stanford Cardinal:  Stanford is battling for the Pac-10 title this season, so they won't let Wake Forest get in their way.  STANFORD

Mississippi State Bulldogs at #19 LSU Tigers:  The Bulldogs usually produce one SEC upset each season, but I don't think the Tigers will be the one this year.  LSU

#25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #20 Michigan State Spartans:  The Irish rarely sweep the Big Ten, and they won't this year, having already lost to Michigan.  They might win two of three, but I think the Spartans are strong enough to hang in there, and then pull off the surprising win in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter.  MICHIGAN STATE

Arizona State Sun Devils at #21 Wisconsin Badgers:  Have you noticed that the Big Ten has some of the toughest non-conference games this week?  Iowa and Michigan State will both be in tough battles, and Wisconsin has a tough one here.  The Sun Devils could pull off the upset, but Wisconsin has an excellent record at home.  WISCONSIN

#22 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies:  Everybody seems to love Jake Locker and the Huskies this season.  They've been good, but not overly impressive.  If they upset Nebraska, though, they'll put themselves in contention for my Top 25, but I don't think they'll do it.  NEBRASKA

#23 East Carolina Pirates at Virginia Tech Hokies:  How bad is Virginia Tech this season?  How about an 0-2 start that is likely to become an 0-3.  EAST CAROLINA

Big Ten
Ball State Cardinals at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue is still steamed about the Notre Dame loss.  They'll take it out on Ball State.  PURDUE

Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State looked terrible against Alabama last week.  Kent State might see an opening, making this game closer than Penn State would like, but the Nittany Lions will pull off the win.  PENN STATE

Northern Illinois Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Northern Illinois is a good team, and could win this game, but I can't get over how well Illinois opened against Missouri.  ILLINOIS

USC Trojans at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers hoped to be unbeaten coming into this game.  Their loss to South Dakota has to worry them, perhaps more than the Trojans coming to town.  USC

Indiana Hoosiers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers:  Oh boy, I smell another FCS upset!  I'll pick Indiana, because they have good tools this season, but watch for the upset.  INDIANA

Northwestern Wildcats at Rice Owls:  Rice is struggling, which should give Northwestern the victory.  NORTHWESTERN

Other Games of Interest:
BYU Cougars at Florida State Seminoles:  It's BYU's offense against Florida State's defense.  In those types of match-ups, I usually go with the defense, but the Seminoles offense turns over the ball too much -- BYU should be able to capitalize.  BYU

Florida International Goledn Panthers at Texas A&M Aggies:  A&M should win this one in a cakewalk.  There should lots of scores, which means lots of kisses for the cadets.  TEXAS A&M

Houston Cougars at UCLA Bruins:  UCLA has a decent team this year, but Houston has a better one.  HOUSTON

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers:  The fur will fly in this battle of the Tigers!  Clemson's offense against the still-improving defense of Auburn?  Sounds like Clemson should have it, but I'm not sure the Tigers are used to the type of high-speed and physical punishment that Auburn dishes out.  I have to like Auburn's chances, although Clemson could win if Auburn makes a mistake in the fourth quarter.  AUBURN

NCAA Week 2 Top 25

What an amazing week!  Four more FCS teams beat FBS teams, bringing this year's total to six.  Also, Montana State nearly beat Washington State to make a seventh.  This is proving an interesting year for FCS teams.

Current Top 25 [Last week's rank]
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) [1]
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) [2]
3.  Oregon Ducks (2-0) [3]
4.  South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) [4]
5.  Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) [NR]
6.  Boise State Broncos (1-0) [6]
7.  California Golden Bears (2-0) [NR]
8.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0) [7]
9.  Utah Utes (2-0) [8]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (2-0) [5]

11. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) [10]
12. Fresno State Bulldogs (1-0) [9]

13. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) [11]
14. Florida Gators (2-0) [13]
15. Texas Longhorns (2-0) [14]
16. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) [NR]
17. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) [NR]
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) [18]
19. LSU Tigers (2-0) [22]

20. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) [19]
21. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) [21]
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0) [NR]
23. East Carolina Pirates (2-0) [23]
24. Pittsburgh Panthers (1-1) [16]

25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1) [20]


On the Edge:  Air Force Falcons (2-0), Houston Cougars (2-0), Auburn Tigers (2-0), Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0), Texas A&M Aggies (2-0), Clemson Tigers (2-0), Georgia Bulldogs (1-1), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0), Miami Hurricanes (1-1)

Dropped:  Virginia Tech Hokies [#12], BYU Cougars [#15], Georgia Bulldogs [#17], Iowa State Cyclones [#24], Tulsa Golden Hurricanes [#25]

NFL 2010 Week 1 picks

Welcome to the start of a new NFL season!  I'm behind schedule here, so I'll get right into it

Thursday, Sept 9
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints:  We start off with a rematch of last season's NFC title game, and perhaps the best match-up of the week.  Both of these teams are strong and itching to start off strongly.  For New Orleans, it's the start of their Super Bowl title defense.  The Vikings are out for blood in this revenge match, but I still think the Saints offense is stronger.  SAINTS, 31-30

Sunday, Sept 12
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers begin their stretch without Ben Roethlisberger.  Charlie Batch has been with them for years, so he knows the system, but he's not the field general that Big Ben is.  Fortunately, the bigger threat from Atlanta is on the offensive side of the ball, and the Steelers' defense remains intact.  PITT, 23-20

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants:  Carolina was forced to alter their offense in the wake of Jake Delhomme's departure.  That offense won't be ready for the Giants' defense.  GIANTS, 21-13

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots:  The TO-Ochocinco tandem hasn't been terrific, because one or the other has been below average during preseason.  Unless they both get in sync, the Patriots precise offense will outstrip the Bengals.  PATS, 24-20

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The best thing about Cleveland in recent years had been Derek Anderson and his slate of receivers.  Now the Browns start over without Anderson and some of those receivers.  Tampa Bay has had to reorganize, too, but at least they have a bit more going for them.  BUCS, 13-6

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars:  It's the Jags defense against Orton and the Denver passing offense.  Denver's line makes a running game difficult, but their defensive line should slow Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags running game.  If Orton and company can get past Jacksonville, the Broncos will soar.  BRONCOS, 20-13

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears:  Perhaps this one should be billed as the snoozer of the week, with two weak teams playing each other.  I'll go for the home team here, especially since the defense is probably in the best physical shape they'll be in all season.  BEARS, 16-13

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans:  Peyton Manning and the Colts are ready to fire.  The Texans' defense is good, but not good enough to slow down Indy.  The real challenge will be how good Matt Schaub can move the Texans.  COLTS, 31-20

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:  Miami has the better team, but they'll be a bit distracted by the chaos occurring in the front office.  Buffalo has shown some good form during preseason, and I think that'll continue into opening week.  BILLS, 17-13

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans:  Chris Johnson is poised to have a spendid season.  With Vince Young feeling confident, they are a powerful force.  Oakland's defense will try to slow that, but perhaps they won't be up to the task.  They'll slow them down, though, making this game more competitive.  TITANS, 13-10

Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams:  The Rams should improve this year, but it'll take Sam Bradford some time to get used to the NFL.  Derek Anderson has been leading a pro team for years.  CARDS, 27-14

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles:  This could be the closest game of the day, with the lead shifting often.  In a test of stamina like this one could become, I like the Packers to come out on top.  PACK, 27-23

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks have been made over by Pete Carroll, but I don't think he'll start off any better at this stop than his previous pro positions.  49ERS, 20-13

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins:  Dallas has looked downright awful in the preseason.  Washington has been slowly improving, and I think this is the year that it comes to fruition.  REDSKINS, 21-17

Monday, Sept 13
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets:  Both teams have worked more on defense than offense.  For the Jets, they're happen to have Derrelle Revis sign his contract (and for much less than he was fighting for).  However, Rex Ryan began to change the defense to work without him.  He won't be able to seamlessly come back.  Still, I think the Jets have the edge in this game.  JETS, 17-13

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Monday Night double-header concludes with this divisional rivalry.  KC thought to improve their team, but they still have a ways to go, especially on defense.  The powerful Chargers offense will just shred them.  CHARGERS, 34-13

NCAA Week 2 picks

Before I start this week's game, let's review some highlights from last week.  Specifically, let's look at some of the more intriguing and shocking results.  Jacksonville State enjoyed its best publicity in school history when they shocked Ole Miss in overtime.  Sending the Rebels into overtime was a feat in itself.  Ole Miss had the first possession of overtime, and scored a touchdown.  Jacksonville State scored on their possession, and they bravely decided to attempt a two-point conversion to win the game.  They were successful, and Ole Miss became this season's Michigan.

Jacksonville State received more airtime, but they weren't the only FCS team to upset an FBS team.  The Kansas Jayhawks, who just two seasons ago were contenting for a national title on an unbeaten season in mid-November, suffered a loss to North Dakota State, a team who moved up to Division I only three years ago.  The Jayhawks, who had a powerful offense over the past three seasons, were able to score only a single field goal in sixty minutes.  It looks like Kansas is back to being one of the worst teams in the Big XII.

Locally, the biggest upset occurred in Maine.  The Maine Black Bears have been a force in the Football Championship Subdivision since before that title existed.  Not long ago, they were the Number One team in the land.  The Albany Great Danes have had some good years, but almost never been ranked.  Most of us expected them to be out of contention in the fourth quarter.  Imagine our surprise when the Albany defense held the Black Bears scoreless, and won the game with a field goal!

The week ended on a thrilling note.  Tulsa and East Carolina played a competitive offensive game where each team scored on every possession for nearly the entire second half.  Tulsa seemed to have the victory sealed, leading 49-45 with six seconds left on the clock.  The Pirates threw a desperation Hail Mary pass for the last play of the game.  Usually such attempts don't succeed.  This time, though, the desperate play worked, and East Carolina pulled off the surprise victory 51-49.

On to this week.  I'll preview games with Top 25 teams, Big Ten teams that aren't facing FCS opponents, and other games of interest.  This week's Game of the Week is actually the second-best game, as the best game features two Top 25 teams.

Thurs Sept 9
Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  Ole Miss' loss to Jacksonville State at least takes the pressure off Mississippi State, since Ole Miss is now facing criticism.  That should make them feel better when they lose this game.  AUBURN

Fri Sept 10
West Virginia Mountaineers at Marshall Thundering Herd:  West Virginia should roll over the Herd, but how far up the Top 25 can they go by playing patsies?  WEST VIRGINIA

Top 25
Penn State Nittany Lions at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Lions are looking tough, but the Tide showed ready to defend their National Championship title.  The Lions defense will make things tough for 'Bama, especially on the ground, but I think the Tide will pull this one out.  ALABAMA

Miami Hurricanes at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The top teams are playing tougher opponents, clearly prepared to uphold their rankings.  Miami has improved their defense, but it's no match for the Buckeyes' D.  The Buckeye offense showed they have life, and should be able to move the ball well enough to secure the victory.  OHIO STATE

#3 Oregon Ducks at Tennessee Volunteers:  Apparently the Ducks were well prepared to lose QB Jeremiah Masoli, as they were one of the most productive offenses last week.  Tennessee isn't strong enough to slow that down enough.  OREGON

#17 Georgia Bulldogs at #4 South Carolina Gamecocks:  SEC rivalries start early this season!  The Dawgs had a great game last week, but now they have to face the Gamecocks.  Things may have been closer than South Carolina would have liked last week, but they proved effective.  I think that'll be the same this week.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at #5 TCU Horned Frogs:  The Frogs won't have any problem against this FCS opponent, but the fact that they ARE playing a FCS opponent could cost them in the rankings.  TCU

Troy Trojans at #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Troy controlled Conference USA when they first moved up to FBS, but they haven't done so well since moving to the Sun Belt.  Oklahoma State looks to be one of the best Big XII teams this season, so the Trojans should be a breeze.

UNLV Running Rebels at #8 Utah Utes:  UNLV proved tenacious last week, but I'm not sure they can do it again.  Even if they do, Utah has more weapons.  UTAH

The Citadel at #10 Arizona Wildcats:  No fear of a FCS upset here!  ARIZONA

#11 Michigan Wolverines at #20 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Michigan blew out their opener, giving Coach Rich Rodriguez a breather.  Notre Dame looked good, too.  This is likely to be the REAL Game of the Week, as these two will battle close.  The last team to score will be the winner, so who scores faster?  I have to pick MICHIGAN

James Madison Dukes at #12 Virginia Tech Hokies:  Another FCS v FBS game, and a similar result.  VIRGINIA TECH

South Florida Bulls at #13 Florida Gators:  The Bulls might prove tougher than Florida expects, but the Gators will likely still prevail.  FLORIDA

Wyoming Cowboys at #14 Texas Longhorns:  Texas shouldn't have much trouble here, even with a weaker offense than that afforded Colt McCoy.  TEXAS

#15 BYU Cougars at Air Force Falcons:  BYU wants to contend for the Mountain West title before they go independent.  Every single conference game will be a war this season.  While the Air Force fights in wars, these guys haven't graduated yet.  BYU

New Hampshire Wildcats at #16 Pittsburgh Panthers:  New Hampshire is a strong FCS team, but Pitt shouldn't have too much trouble against them.  PITT

#18 Texas Tech Red Raiders at New Mexico Lobos:  The Raiders may not have the same power they had last season, but they have more than enough to beat New Mexico.  TEXAS TECH

Florida Atlantic Owls at #19 Michigan State Spartans:  Florida Atlantic is actually a strong team this season, and they may give the Spartans fits, but the Spartans SHOULD have enough firepower to beat them.  The only conflicting factor?  If the Spartans don't expect much resistance from a Sun Belt team, they might find themselves thrust down a deep hole that they won't climb out from in time.  Thankfully, the Big Ten is less likely to take "lesser" teams for granted, especially since MAC teams have pushed them to the limits in recent years.  MICHIGAN STATE

San Jose State Spartans at #21 Wisconsin Badgers:  The Michigan State Spartans haven't been a very tough opponent to the Badgers for years, and I don't expect this Spartans team to be one, either.  WISCONSIN

#22 LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores:  LSU is starting to get their swagger back on defense, which bodes ill for their opponents.  LSU

Memphis Tigers at #23 East Carolina Pirates:  East Carolina won't have as much of a battle this week as they had last week.  They won't need a last-second Hail Mary to win this game.  EAST CAROLINA

#24 Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Oh well, at least the Cyclones got to enjoy the Top 25 for a week.  Who knows?  They might be good enough to be back, but they aren't good enough to prevent a loos to their in-state rival.  IOWA

Bowling Green Falcons at Tulsa Golden Hurricanes:  Like the Pirates, Tulsa won't find this game so close.  TULSA

Big Ten
Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting Illini:  While the other non-ranked conference teams are also facing FCS teams, I had to report on this one, as it'll be one of the few times where I get to predict a clear Illini victory.  ILLINOIS

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Florida State Seminoles at Oklahoma Sooners:  The Seminoles are highly regarded this season, especially for their defense.  This is their first real challenge.  Is their defense strong enough to stop Oklahoma?  I don't think so, although I think this WILL be a close game.  If the Sooners make a rare mistake and turn the ball over in the fourth quarter, the Seminoles could win this game.  OKLAHOMA

NCAA Top 25 Week 1

For newcomers, let me remind folks of some of my rules, and why my Top 25 looks different from others.  First of all, I use seven different measures to determine a team's rank.  Strength of schedule is a major factor, and I determine the quality of a team based upon their average result of the past four years.  I count wins against Football Championship Subdivision teams, but nothing else.  Thus, many teams from this week weren't considered.  My Top 25 usually changes greatly in the first couple of weeks, but settles down by the time most teams are playing conference games.

1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
3.  Oregon Ducks (1-0) : Losing Masoli didn't slow their offense at all
4.  South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0)
5.  TCU Horned Frogs (1-0)
6.  Boise State Broncos (1-0)
7.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-0)
8.  Utah Utes (1-0)
9.  Fresno State Bulldogs (1-0)
10. Arizona Wildcats (1-0)
11. Michigan Wolverines (1-0) : They did better than I expected against UConn
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (0-1) : Excellent game against Boise State!
13. Florida Gators (1-0)
14. Texas Longhorns (1-0)
15. BYU Cougars (1-0)
16. Pittsburgh Panthers (0-1) : Took Utah to overtime
17. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0)
19. Michigan State Spartans (1-0)
20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0)
21. Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
22. LSU Tigers (1-0)
23. East Carolina Pirates (1-0) : Exciting finish to the game!
24. Iowa State Cyclones (1-0)
25. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (0-1) : Should have won that game against East Carolina!

Honorable Mention:  North Carolina Tar Heels - fought hard despite losing so many starters

NFL 2010 NFC Preview

NFC EAST
1.  New York Giants (11-5; 5-1 in division):  Victor Cruz is proving to be an excellent addition to this slate of talented receivers.  Sorgi's injury means that Sage Rosenfels backs up Eli Manning.  Thankfully the offensive line seems capable of protecting him.

2.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6, 3-3; wildcard):  The offense seems fairly strong, but the defense has a few question marks.  Perhaps the biggest question mark is new starting QB Kevin Kolb.  Although Kolb was admirable in filler roles last year, can he handle full-time starting duties?  I think so.

3.  Washington Redskins (8-8, 3-3):  Donovan McNabb moved from Philly to start this team.  Unfortunately, his backup is Bears washout Rex Grossman.  McNabb is getting old enough that they have to really hope they can protect him.  At least Washington has a decent running corps to help take off some pressure.  The starting wide receviers are good, but the depth of the receiving corps is not great.

4.  Dallas Cowboys (6-10, 1-5):  The Cowboys looked weak in preseason.  Romo's timing is definitely off.  The offensive line doesn't look strong, and the defense has some weak spots.

NFC NORTH
1.  Green Bay Packers (11-5, 5-1):  The Packers should improve from last season.  While everyone is focussing on their games against Minnesota and Brett Favre, it's some of their non-divisional opponents who should concern fans.

2.  Minnesota Vikings (8-8, 5-1):  The offensive line isn't strong enough to hold back their opponents.  Favre won't last the whole season.  Tavaris Jackson is okay, but not strong enough for the quality schedule the Vikings have this season.

3.  Detroit Lions (3-13, 1-5):  QB Matt Stafford is looking better.  The offensive line still needs some work, but they're improving, too.  The offense definitely drives this time, especially since the corners are a weakness on the defense.

4.  Chicago Bears (3-13, 1-5):  The team let Dan LeFevour go, so elder Todd Collins backs up inconsistent Jay Cutler.  Devin Hester is not working out well at wide receiver.  I'd recommend putting him back on special teams as a full-time return specialist, but Johnny Knox and Rasheed Davis need someone to attract defenders.  TE Greg Olson should still be a popular target.  A weak offensive line means that Cutler will be throwing on the run, and that's when he gets into trouble.

NFC SOUTH
1.  New Orleans Saints (14-2, 6-0; playoff bye):  Drew has most of his playmakers back to make a serious run at repeating as Super Bowl Champions.  The defense has two key injuries, but they still are loaded.  The offense drove this team last year, and they will again.

2.  Tampa Bay Bucs (5-11, 2-4):  They add Arrelius Benn and Mike Williams to the wide receivers.  That's good, but their real value will only be seen if Josh Freeman lives up to expectations.  I think it'll take some time.  The defense also have some question marks, but some of their promising rookies could help them later in the season.

3.  Atlanta Falcons (4-12, 2-4):  The offense is good, but it's thin in many key positions.  Injuries could seriously impact this team.  The defense has depth problems, too.

4.  Carolina Panthers (4-12, 2-4):  Former Lion Matt Moore takes over as quarterback with former Irish Jimmy Clausen backing him up.  With a thin receiving corps and weak offensive line, this team will struggle to move the ball.  Defensive is a bit better, but not enough for a good season.

NFC WEST
1.  Arizona Cardinals (12-4, 5-1; playoff bye):  Kurt Warner retired, but releasing Matt Leinhart puts Derek Anderson under center.  With his arm and the speedy receivers the team added for Warner, I don't think they'll miss too much.  The defense has some holes, but a strong backfield means they won't give up many big plays.

2.  San Francisco 49ers (11-5, 4-2; wildcard):  David Carr is likely to start at quarterback, as Alex Smith hasn't been as impressive as hoped.  The 49ers have a strong running game, and they have good receivers, but their corps is thin.  They need to stay healthy.  The defense isn't as good as Coach Singletary would like, but they're still potent.

3.  Seattle Seahawks (8-8, 3-3):  Remember Charlie Whitehurst?  Apparently Pete Carroll does, as he's the backup quarterback.  Carroll released Houshmandzadeh, but they still have lots of talented receivers.  Julius Jones and Justin Forsett make up the reconstituted backfield.  The defense has bright spots, but there is some questions about the line.

4.  St Louis Rams (2-14, 0-6):  Sam Bradford will start at quarterback with AJ Feely serving as back-up.  With a marginal wide receiving corps, RB Steven Jackson will be the workhorse.  The defense is somewhat improved from last season, but it'll still be a long year.

NFL 2010: AFC preview

College football has already started, so let's get right to this (so that I don't miss too much of the action!):

AFC East:
1.  New York Jets (13-3, 5-1 in division):  With Mark Brunell present to continue tutoring Mark Sanchez, the Jets offense will continue to improve.  The defense hasn't been as dominant in the preseason as Coach Rex Ryan would like, but it's still potent.  I'm not sure that this team will reach the Super Bowl this year, but the playoffs are a certainty.

2.  New England Patriots (9-7, 3-3; wildcard): There are some new faces on the team, but the key players are still there.  The defense lost some might, but the offense is still strong.  New punter Zoltan Mesko might inspire the offense to take more chances on fourth and short.  That might games a little more interesting.

3.  Miami Dolphins (8-8, 2-4):  I'll admit, the Dolphins have looked pretty good in preseason.  With Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline, the passing game is solid, no matter which Chad is throwing the ball.  Former Wolverine Chad Henne assumes the starter's role, but Pennington is still waiting in the wings if he falters.  The passing game doesn't have to carry the whole load, as Ronnie Brown is more than capable of gaining yards.  The defense may have some holes, but the linebacking corps and secondary are secure, making this a dangerous team.

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-10, 1-5):  QB Trent Edwards leads a team that has seen players come and go, but former Badger Lee Evans still holds title over the wide receivers.  Steve Johnson assumes the Number Two role, and CJ Spiller takes over the primary running duties.  The defense looks secure, led by linebackers Reggie Torbor and Paul Posluszky.

AFC NORTH:
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3, 6-0; playoff bye):  Byron Leftwich's injury puts Charlie Batch in control of the offense until Big Ben's suspension is lifted.  That has some fans concerned, but a favorable schedule and strong defense should prevent the Steelers from losing much in that period.  It might inspire them to run a bit more than Roethlisberger does, which is highly possible with the Steelers' strong offensive line.

2.  Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 3-3; wildcard):  The offense has looked good in preseason, but there is some concern about the strength of the offensive line.  For a team that likes to run the ball, that's not a good sign.  Flacco has plenty of tools to catch the ball, and the runners are sturdy and capable of pushing forward, even if the line doesn't open large holes.  Still, the Ravens will likely to continue to lean on their defense.  Their best guys are getting older, though, so can they last the entire season?

3.  Cincinnati Bengals (8-8, 3-3):  People will think I'm underestimating Cincinnati, but I don't think the comraderie between TO and Ochocinco will last all season.  When it starts to collapse, those two egos will accelerate the problem quickly.  The Bengals will likely start strong, but they'll fade in the second half of the season.

4.  Cleveland Browns (3-13, 0-6):  Jake Delhomme takes over for Derek Anderson, but he has some raw receivers to work with.  It took Delhomme some time to groom his receivers in Carolina; it may take him longer here.  Since the defense has issues, too, the Browns have the potential to be the worst team in the league.

AFC SOUTH
1.  Indianapolis Colts (13-3, 6-0; playoff bye):  This team will continue to dominate this division.  In fact, it might be a down year for the other teams.

2.  Tennessee Titans (7-9, 3-3):  Vince Young seems firmly established as starter; it seems his emotional issues are gone.  He has a good slate of receivers to catch his passes, which helps his transition to a pocket passer.  With Chris Johnson, the best runner in the league, they don't need to rely on the passing game, either.  A weak slate of linebackers exposes a weakness in the defense, but this team can still win games.

3.  Houston Texans (5-11,2-4):  QB Matt Schaub has a couple of good targets, but the bench is weak, as is the offensive line.  The defense is definitely the strength of this team, but how far can they go with that?

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 1-5):  The Jags have a good running game and strong tight end, but there is a weak slate of receivers for QB David Garrard.  The defense is decent, but they're likely to tire, as they'll be on the field a long time with little rest.

AFC WEST
1.  San Diego Chargers (11-5, 5-1):  If Vincent Jackson doesn't sign, the passing game is definitely impacted.  They have other capable receivers, but he draws coverage.  The running game has issues, too, as they have only rookie Ryan Matthews to spell RB Darren Sproles.  With a thin bench on both sides of the ball, this team is susceptible to injuries, too.  I figure after this latest round of personnel cuts, there will be talented players eligible to sign if key players get injured.  Fortunately, they start with an easy schedule, so the likelihood of starting 6-0 with few key injuries exists.

2.  Oakland Raiders (6-10, 4-2):  The Raiders have definitely helped themselves more than their divisional opponents.  QB Jason Campbell doesn't have many experienced wide receivers, but tight end Zach Miller is always a threat.  A strong offensive line supports a great running game, and they have some good runners.  The defense has regained their swagger and strength, especially on the line.

3.  Denver Broncos (5-11, 3-3):  QB Kyle Orton has wide receivers Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, and Jabar Gaffney, so the passing game will rule.  The offensive line is weak, so Orton will be running for his life.  The line also makes it hard for Knowshon Moreno, and his backup is injury-prone Correll Buckhalter.  The running game will suffer, letting opponents know to focus on Orton and his receievers.  The defensive backfield is good, but the line is weak, so opponents can run on the Broncos.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (3-13, 0-6): QB Matt Cassell leads off a full slate of castoffs from other teams.  I'm not sure how it'll work, as so many come from different offensive schemes.  This team might take time to get going.  The running game has the best line-up, but I'm not sure the offensive line is strong enough to support them.  The defense is good, but a slow backfield makes them vulnerable to the big pass play.

NCAA Week 1 picks

The new season commenses in less than 48 hours!  Where did my summer go?  I don't have a Top 25 to gauge games, so I'll just look at key Big Ten contests and other interesting matchups.  Many of the matchups favor home teams, as many teams start with weakling opponents.

Thurs, Sept 2
There are a few interesting games to watch.  Overall, there are plenty of games being played this evening, a larger opening night than usual.

Albany Great Danes at Maine Black Bears:  Sorry, but since I both teach and attend doctoral classes at UAlbany, I'll be discussing each game this season.  Hey, it's my blog, I don't have an editor, so I can do what I want!  Unfortunately, this is not a great way for Albany to kick off the season - this matchup definitely favors the home team.  Maine is one again a strong contender for the FCS title, and Albany is, well, Albany.  MAINE

Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes prepare for a potential National Championship run by beating up on the Herd.  Terrell Pryor will generate some great numbers to boost his home grown Heisman campaign, but I don't think the voters will be fooled.  OHIO STATE

Pittsburgh Panthers at Utah Utes:  The Panthers are preseason favorites to win the Big East, but their warmup may be their toughest contest of the season.  The Utes are typically a strong team, and this year doesn't look much different.  Also, the Utes want to contend for the Mountain West title the next two years, leaving the conference with a bang.  Although Pitt might pull off the upset, I have to go with UTAH on this one.

USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors:  With a start time of 11PM, I don't think I'll be staying up to watch this on ESPN; the first half, perhaps, but not the whole game.  Hell, I have office hours Friday morning!  This game won't be worth DVR'ing.  While USC will not likely contend for the Pac-10 title, they're still a good team.  Of course, they'll need a defense to slow Hawaii, as I don't think their offense can score on nearly every possession any more.  Hawaii plays tough at home, but the time difference won't be quite so difficult for the Trojans, so I think they'll win a game closer than Coach Kiffin would like.  USC

Fri Sept 3rd
Small slate of games, none of them especially note-worthy.  Marist kicks off their season (I used to live and work in the Poughkeepsie, NY area) and Arizona should win their opener against Toledo.  This game was scheduled back when the Rockets were a strong team.  You can't really say that about them this year.

Sat Sept 4th
Traditionally the start of the college football season, and we have a large slate of games.  Strangely, there's only a handful of interest of the average football fan, although I'll be tracking my Big Ten conference.

Eastern Illinois at Iowa Hawkeyes:  My projected conference winner opens against an average FCS team.  Cakewalk.  IOWA

UConn Huskies at Michigan Wolverines:  Prior to Rich Rodriquez's arrival, I'd have no hesitation picking Michigan.  However, Coach Rod has lost both of his season openers since arriving in Ann Arbor, and UConn should be a strong team this year.  I have to pick Michigan, just because the Big Ten is a tougher conference and I think Rodriquez has learned something from being there, plus he has his years of Big East experience to help him beat UConn, but I can't ignore the likelihood of a UConn upset.  MICHIGAN

San Jose State Spartans at Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Tide begin their National title defense with a dominating win over a weak WAC opponent.  Ho hum.  ALABAMA

Sunday Sept 5
Don't you love the first week of college football?  With only preseason NFL games to compete against, they schedule Sunday games.  Unfortunately, the four Sunday games don't feature anybody very interesting; Texas Tech probably ranks the highest.  You'd think they could have done a better scheduling job here.

Monday Sept 6
Labor Day weekend, and the lack of Monday Night Football, opens the door for the NCAA.  ESPN has an interesting double-hearder, starting with the ground-churning attack of Navy against Maryland.  Navy should win that one easily.  As for the other game...

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Boise State Broncos at Virginia Tech Hokies:  Geez, we have to wait until Monday to get the best matchup of the week!  Two potential Top 25 teams square off in a key game for each team.  If Boise State is serious about another chance to get to the BCS title game, they can't slack off.  They won't surprise, as top tier teams now know what the Broncos are capable of, so don't expect Virginia Tech and Frank Beamer to make this easy for them.  However, I think the Broncos will pull this one out, although it might be closer than they would like.  BOISE STATE

Big East preview

I don't think the Big East will be the powerhouse conference it's been some years, but it could still generate five bowl eligible teams.  Let's look at each one:


CINCINNATI BEARCATS:  The 'Cats won't skip a beat at QB, despite the loss of Tony Pike.  Zach Collaros filled in admirably when Pike was injured late in the season, and ran the offense just as smoothly.  New coach Butch Jones will keep the offensive firepower going.  He comes from Central Michigan, where he engineered the offense that gave Dan LeFevour such numbers. 

Cincy's sore spot is defense.  They've shifted to a 4-3 to take advantage of their strong defensive line, but their secondary is slow.  Worse, they have a thin bench.  That situation hurt West Virginia last year, as late season injuries put in such a weak defensive that they lost to Syracuse.  If Cincy's defense can remain healthy, and they can focus on building up their bench's skills, they can be a powerful team.

UCONN HUSKIES:  QB Zach Frazer can build on his strong finish to the 2009 season.  He has some new wide receivers to throw to, but he's supported nicely by a strong backfield stable offensive line, and a patsy lineup of non-confernce opponents, allowing the new receiving corps time to develop.  With a strong defense, perhaps the best in the conference, the Huskies will be a tough team to beat.

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS:  This is definitely a rebuilding year under new coach Charlie String, especially on defense.  This team will contend for the cellar.

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS:  Could this be the year of the Panthers?  RB Deon Lewis is giving them reason to think so.  As a freshman, he ran for more yards than any player in Pitt history except for former Heisman Trophy winner Tony Dorsett.  If not for the disappointing one-point loss to Cincy at the end of the season, they would have tied for the conference title.  Lewis will be supported this year by sophomore Ray Graham, giving them a powerful rushing attack.

They may need that rushing attack, as the quarterback situation is still open, and the receiving corps is young.  At least the defense returns a bunch of guys, so Pitt can take some time to develop the newcomers.  They have a tough non-conference schedule, though.

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS:  QB Tom Savage had a solid freshman season.  If he can avoid the "sophomore letdown", he'll help engineer a Rutgers comeback.  A weak offensive line makes that a tough call, though, and Mohamad Sanu is the only experienced reliable wide receiver.  Their two-running back system should help block for the offensive line, but it'll still be an uphill battle.  Their defense won't help much, as they have a weak linebacking corps.

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS:  Skip Holtz takes over for departing coach Jim Leavitt.  Holtz has been successful everywhere he's gone, but he's downplaying the team's potential this season.  Since they gave a team record six players to the NFL, I don't blame him.

QB B.J. Daniels had a strong 2009, but much of the work was done on the ground.  Holtz doesn't want him running so much, to help reduce punishment.  He'll give the ball more to RB Mosie Plancher.  A strong offensive line will protect Daniels and punch holes for Plancher.  That line is needed, as the wide receiving corps is inexperienced.

This team was known for its strong defense, but many of the losses came from that squad.  With only four returning starters, we'll find out how strong a bench Leavitt left Holtz.  This team may start off shaky, but could gain momentum as the season progresses.

SYRACUSE ORANGEMEN:  This will be a long year for Syracuse.  They do have two bright spots:  they didn't lose runner Delone Carter, whose assault case was dismissed, and they return most of the offensive line.  That's about all of the good news, however.

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS:  Coach Bill Stewart has wiped all traces of former coach Rich Rodriquez from the playbook.  Whether that will sit well with former QB and new athletic director Oliver Luck remains to be seen.  Stewart has to contend with a new quarterback, but at least he has a great supporting cast.  The offensive line returns everyone, and RB Noel Devine is back.  WR Jock Sanders will be the favorite target.  A strong defensive line will help slow down opponents but eat clock, so that the offense doesn't have to be on the field as much.  They are a bit succeptible to the long pass, though, given a weak secondary.  A great non-conference schedule makes this team a bowl contender.

Projected standings:
1.  PIttsburgh Panthers (8-0 conference, 10-2 overall)
2.  UConn Huskies (5-2/9-3)
3.  West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2/9-3)
4.  Cincinnati Bearcats (4-3/7-5)
5.  South Florida Bulls (4-3/7-5)
6.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5/6-6)
7.  Syracuse Orangemen (1-7/3-9)
8.  Louisville Cardinals (1-7/3-9)