NFL 2012 Week 13 picks

My picks of mostly visiting teams last week wasn't a bust, but it was my worst result in a month.  I might have let that color me a bit this week, as I was looking for reasons to pick home teams, so we'll see how that approach works.

Thursday night:  New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:  This game could do either way, but the Falcons have done an excellent job this season of winning games, especially close ones.  The Saints will scrap hard, but I think Matty Ice and company will find some way to emerge victorious.  FALCONS, 30-26

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets:  Believe it or not, I think the Jets might win this game.  Okay, call me crazy.  This might be one of those games where I was looking for a reason for the home team to win, but Arizona has been a horribly inconsistent team this season, especially on the road.  The Cardinals have won only one game on the road this year, and I think that condition will remain.  The Jets are clear that they are playing for their coach now, as indications have come down that Rex Ryan may be on his way out.  That should inspire his defense to get to work.  JETS, 17-13

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs:  Could Carolina win two in a row?  I think so, especially since the face the most offensively-challenged team in the league, even more so than the Jets.  The Panthers defense will let the Chiefs score more than they are used to, but Cam Newton and the offense will tear through their defense.  PANTHERS, 26-16

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans:  Houston has been faltering the past couple of weeks, but I think they'll find their footing this week.  Part of that comes from the fact that Tennessee hasn't won a divisional game, and the other is the fact that Houston got a chance to rest for nine days after ten days of five-quarter games.  TEXANS, 30-20

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions:  The Colts are on a winning streak, and I think that'll continue.  They seem to avoid commanding victories, so this may be a close game, but Andrew Luck is getting more comfortable in his position, while Matt Stafford still seems a bit out of sync with his receivers.  COLTS, 27-24

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills:  Chad Henne is bringing the Jaguars back from the brink of collapse, but the Jags still need to prove that they can be a non-divisional team this season.  Henne will keep this game close, but I have to favor the Bills.  BILLS, 26-24

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers:  This may not be a blowout one-sided game, but the Pack always steps up for divisional games.  Moreover, the Vikings have stunk on the road this season.  All signs point to a Packers win, but winning by HOW MUCH is the question.  PACK, 27-20

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:  The Patriots offense has exploded the past weeks, and I think that'll continue.  Games between these two are frequently offensive showcases, and I see no reason for that to change this week.  Ryan Tannehill is running the Dolphins offense well, but the Patriots are definitely on a massive roll.  PATS, 42-34

San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams:  I actually considered picking the Rams, since the last game between these two, in San Francisco, ended in a tie and the Rams have been doing well since that game.  However, the 49ers defense has toughened since that tie, and I think that squad will be the difference in this game.  49ERS, 24-17

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears:  Cutler's return has reinvigorated the Bears. While Seattle can be tricky, they have been an atrocious road team this season.  They have turned the ball over twice as often on the road than at home, and turnovers have been the heartbeat of the Bears defense this season.  BEARS, 23-16

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers:  This game, more than any other this week, is really a "you pick" game.  Both teams are equally capable and equipped to win, so what do I use to base my pick? Home field advantage.  CHARGERS, 27-26

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders:  The Browns haven't won a road game all season, but I think this one is it.  The Browns are moving up, while the Raiders still flounder.  I don't think they expect to get a wildcard spot (although 8-8 might be sufficient in the AFC), but they are definitely seeing how far they can go with the talent they have.  After some initial bumps and inconsistencies, Brandon Wheeden is gaining comfort in the NFL.  BROWNS, 26-20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  Pitt seems to be stumbling, especially on offense.  The Ravens defense has lost a step, but should be able to handle the struggling Steelers.  RAVENS, 24-16

Tampa Bay Bucs at Denver Broncos:  The Bucs defense will make this a close game, and Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will be able to score, but I think the Broncos will end up with a victory.  Unlike at Indy, Peyton has a running game to support his passing game, and the Broncos have not had to rely solely on Peyton.  That gives him the room to be aggressive, and that makes him dangerous.  BRONCOS, 26-23

Sunday night:  Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys:  Neither team is doing well right now, and we now enter December, which has frequently been a cruel month for Dallas.  However, the Eagles keep killing themselves, guilty of more turnovers than any team in the NFC.  That sort of carelessness could help Dallas achieve a rare December win.  COWBOYS, 24-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  For the second week in a row, the Giants are featured in prime time.  At this time of the year, prime time is the prime choice of the Giants, who seem to excel in the spotlight.  These two teams are fairly evenly matched on offense; the Giants defense will be the difference in this game.  The Giants will stress RGIII just enough to win, although this game will be a lot closer than the Giants fans would like.  GIANTS, 27-23

NFL 2012 Week 12 power rankings

Okay, I'll admit it -- Chad Henne is no fluke.  I don't know what he's been doing during since Miami let him go, but he has really sharpened his game.  He didn't post the same type of numbers as he did last week, but at one point late in the second quarter NO pass of his had missed being caught by a player.  He had one interception, and the other eight of his first nine passes were caught by teammates.  THAT is an amazing achievement.  The Jaguars are no longer the worst offense in the league; that honor now goes to Kansas City.  Even if Blaine Gabbert regains his health before the end of the season, I'd keep Henne under center.

A strange result happened on Thanksgiving Day.  Both losing quarterbacks (Detroit's Matt Stafford and Dallas' Tony Romo) threw for more yards than the winning quarterbacks.  Ironically, both passed for EXACTLY the same number of yards (441) and both offenses scored the same number of points in their losing efforts (31).  How's THAT for parity?

We have reached the point in the season when I start looking at the divisional and playoff races.  I add that section after the divisional rankings.

Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1.  Houston Texans (10-1) [1] : They should have lost the game against Detroit, but they once again engineered a fourth quarter comeback.  They also survived their second overtime game in five days. That's stamina!
2.  San Francisco 49ers (8-2-1) [2] : Colin Kaepernick engineered another stellar offensive performance, further fueling the brewing quarterback controversy.  For now the controversy hasn't erupted, but if Alex Smith is cleared to play this week and doesn't, it'll be interesting to see how it affects the team.
3.  New England Patriots (8-3) [4] : This team has scored over 140 points in the past three weeks.  There may be no defense in the AFC (except Houston) capable of stopping them.
4.  Chicago Bears (8-3) [5] : Jay Cutler returns under center, and the offense clicks again.  Even when Matt Forte went down hurt, this team still delivered.  I'll admit that I still don't think Cutler is a great quarterback, but he is the emotional and motivational heart of this offense.  Add in the defense responsible for more turnovers than any other in the league, and this team could go deep into the playoffs.
5.  Atlanta Falcons (10-1) [3] : They nearly lost this week.  This team continues to barely squeeze out victories.  They have to get better before the playoffs, or that home field advantage may not help them.
6.  Denver Broncos (8-3) [6] : Not a stellar performance from Peyton, but they picked an excellent opponent to have a down week against
7.  Baltimore Ravens (9-2) [7] : They needed overtime to beat San Diego, and their offense skipped a few beats this week.  They may be on their way down, but I've said that before.  With Pittsburgh also stumbling, the Ravens are still likely to win the division.
8.  New York Giants (7-4) [10] : I guess that bye week really paid off!  The Pack may have some injuries, but it doesn't excuse this performance.  The Giants came back with a purpose, and they played their most dominant game since they beat San Francisco in Week 6.
9.  Tampa Bay Bucs (6-5) [9] : They nearly handed Atlanta their second loss of the season.  Josh Freeman looked impressive, and David Martin keeps piling up the yards.
10. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) [11] : Their defense slipped a bit this week, but they are still a threat
11. Green Bay Packers (7-4) [8] : Man, they got their clock cleaned against the Giants this week!
12. Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) [15] : They slaughtered Oakland, and with a reeling Pittsburgh out of their way, they have Baltimore in their sights
13. Washington Redskins (5-6) [18] : Their manhandling of Dallas ended decades of futility on Thanksgiving Day
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) [13] : If they don't get their act together, this may be their last week in the top half of the league
15. San Diego Chargers (4-7) [16] : They gave Baltimore everything they could handle
16. New Orleans Saints (5-6) [14] : Their offense is still okay, but the defense needs to improve if they want to stay in the top half.  Indy is fast on their heels.

Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC North [1] : They remain on top, but the Lions and Vikings can't consistently win
2 (tie). NFC South [2] : Now the only division with three teams in the top half of the league, and an impressive Monday night win for division cellar Carolina, means that no team in this division can be ignored
2 (tie). AFC North [3] : Cincy is moving up, but Pitt is moving down
4.  NFC West [4] : St Louis is moving up and Seattle is still a threat, so this division has strength
5.  NFC East [6] : This division didn't so much move up as the AFC East is collapsing, but the rise of Washington and the restoration of the Giants this week certainly helped
6.  AFC East [5] : Only the Patriots look any good
7.  AFC South [7] : The Colts keep winning, but they need to win bigger to overcome their negative point differential, which is contributing to keeping them out of the upper half of the league in power
8.  AFC West [8] : As you will see below, this might be the first division title crowned

Divisional races
All of the AFC divisions are led by at least three games.  With five games remaining, that may be too large a gap for any team to bridge.  The Colts might have a chance if it wasn't Houston they were chasing.

AFC East:  New England leads this division by three games and still have two division games to play.  Their offense is too powerful for any divisional opponent to stop, and only Miami has any chance to TRY to keep up with them.  They face Miami this week, and a win there clinches the division.  They'd have at least a four game lead over everyone else, and a better divisional record than anyone else could get.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  only New England, and they may get the second seed, at least the third

AFC North:  Baltimore leads this division by three, but they have shown some weaknesses.  Cincy has supplanted Pitt for the runner-up spot, and they face San Diego, Pitt, Dallas, and the Eagles before hosting Baltimore to close the regular season.  That final game might determine the season if Baltimore falters, as the Ravens face Washington, Denver, and the Giants before the Bengals.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  Baltimore currently would have the second seed, but I think they'll fall to third (at best).  Cincy looks primed for a wildcard spot if Baltimore doesn't lose their last four games

AFC South: Houston leads by three.  Despite Indy's wining streak, I think they'll win the division, but games against New England and Indy (twice!) could make it an interesting race.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  Houston for the top seed and Indy with the fifth seed

AFC West:  Denver leads by four. They win the division with one more win, which could come this week against Tampa Bay.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  Denver only with third or fourth seed

NFC East:  The Giants hold a two-game lead, but Dallas is no longer the team behind them.  The surging Redskins are charging up, so New York can't slow down.  The two face off this week in Washington, and a Redskins win puts them only one game back.  With games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta remaining for the Giants, they might not win the division if they lose on Sunday.
PLAYOFF CONTENDER:  Only the division winner, with the fourth seed

NFC North:  At one time this division seemed a sure bet to provide both wildcard teams.  Now that's in question, but Green Bay and Chicago should both get in.  The Bears lead the division, and have a slightly better schedule than Green Bay.  The Bears also get to host the Pack for the rematch, and they are done with prime time games.  Minnesota is only two games back from the Bears (one back from Green Bay), so they still have a playoff shot.  They have three divisional games remaining, though, all three against the teams ahead of them (they've already played Detroit twice), so the Vikes' chances look slim.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  Division winner with second or third seed and runner-up with fifth seed

NFC South:  Atlanta leads by four and wins this division with a victory over the Saints this week.  Even if they falter, they should beat Carolina to capture the title.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  Atlanta with the top seed and perhaps Tampa Bay with the sixth

NFC West:  San Fran leads by two and a half.  Seattle needs to win three more games than San Fran, as their divisional record sucks.  That option doesn't seem likely, but it's still a mathematical possibility.
PLAYOFF CONTENDERS:  San Fran with the second or third seed

Note to Dan Patrick: You were wrong

It is near the end of the semester, and I am very busy with campus matters, but I thought I'd take a short break from my rankings and prognostications to provide a quick correction to viewers and listeners of THE DAN PATRICK SHOW.

Now, before I begin, let me say that I admire Dan Patrick.  In the age when so many national sportscasters try to make themselves seem like experts, and that everything they say should be taken as the "voice of God," Dan Patrick has gone out of his way to distinguish his own personal opinion from any facts that he states.  If he is simply repeating something someone else said, something he has not verified, he states the source.  He also admits he is not an expert, and relies on (and often calls upon during the broadcast) his team of fact-checkers.  They will often let him know when he made an error, which Dan will quickly announce on the program.  So I know he is committed to the truth and to clarity.  That's why I'm sure he will appreciate this.

While I did not listen to all of his broadcast on Monday Nov 26th, I did listen to over an hour of it.  Three times during that broadcast he mentioned that Urban Meyer had brought "SEC style" of football to Ohio State.  The only problem with that statement is that the spread option used so effectively by Urban Meyer's team is NOT an SEC innovation.  Yes, it is practiced by many of the SEC teams NOW, but that's only because they adopted it when Meyer came to the SEC to coach at Florida.

Urban Meyer has been using the spread option at every school where he has been head coach.  He perfected this version of it when he was at Utah, long before Florida was even considering him to be their head coach.  When he came to Florida, SEC schools realized that they needed to defend against this thing.  After all, it was so successful at Utah because it was so hard to defend.  SEC schools studied the scheme so that they could simulate it during practice.  As they were learning it, they realized how great the scheme was.  The SEC was already focused on "quick strike" offenses that could dishearten their opponents.  This seemed to be the ideal upgrade to their current offenses.  Thus, many of the other SEC schools began to integrate the spread option scheme.

However, to call it the "SEC offense" is incorrect, and ignores the valuable contribution that Urban Meyer has brought to college football.  This version of the spread option was perfected by Meyer BEFORE he came to the SEC, and so if you want to name it after someone or a school, call it "Meyer's offense" or the "Utah offense."  Do not give the SEC credit for something that they copied, rather than actually created.

NCAA 2012 Week 13 picks

There were a few key upsets last week.  Most affected teams just outside the Top 25, but one struck firmly in the rankings -- Texas.  As Texas A&M has been building up a strong record against tough SEC opponents, even beating the Crimson Tide when they were Number One, I'll bet the Longhorns were happy that they dropped them as their traditional Thanksgiving Day opponent.  A struggling TCU team comes to town, and the Longhorns still get beat.  Not a single home team won on Thanksgiving; there were plenty of unthankful football fans that day.

The Big East was once again the source of upsets.  Louisville was knocked out of the Top 25 after their three overtime loss to UConn.  Rutgers was further distanced from the Top 25, and failed to secure the Big East title, by getting slaughtered by Pitt.  Mississippi State also further separated themselves from the Top 25 by losing Ole Miss.  Another state rivalry resulted in an upset, as pathetic Washington State redeemed their season by beating Washington in overtime.

With both FCS playoffs and conference championship games this weekend, there are too many special games to pick a Game of the Week.  I will also separate the FCS playoffs and conference championships from the other games.

Thurs night:  Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Both teams lost coming into this de facto Big East championship game.  Louisville was most recently in the Top 25, and hasn't looked as bad in their recent losses.  Other than being the visiting team, they have all the advantages.  Yet, I'm going with Rutgers.  They are more tenacious, and they can win the title outright, with no "share of..." in front.  It'll be close, but I think the Knights will pull it out.  RUTGERS by three

Top 25
Texas Longhorns at #6 Kansas State Wildcats:  The Longhorns lost on Thanksgiving, so they are hungry for a win.  That might help motivate them.  However, the Wildcats lost before their bye week, so they've been stewing for two weeks by the time this game starts.  They want this one, and they want it badly.  They'll know that a shot at the BCS title game isn't possible, but that won't stop them from driving for a BCS bowl, which they won't likely get if they lose.  KANSAS STATE by eight

#14 Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs:  After tackling Texas, the Frogs get to host the Big XII runner-up.  Can they engineer a second upset in a row?  I'm not sure they're set up for that.  Texas thought they SHOULD win; Oklahoma is expecting a battle.  The Sooners have better players, and frankly are more disciplined.  The Sooners will prevail.  OKLAHOMA by 13

#16 Boise State Broncos at Nevada Wolf Pack: The Broncos need to win to capture the Mountain West crown, and have any chance at a BCS bowl (which looks unlikely now).  Nevada can be tricky, though.  This game will be closer than Boise State wants, and if the Nevada defense can get to QB Joe Southwick, they might win.  BOISE STATE by six

Other Games of Interest
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears:  The Big XII title is out of reach, but a win could secure a strong bowl bid and possibly get them back in the Top 25.  Baylor won't make it easy, though; this is a strong offense.  OKLAHOMA STATE by five

Nicholls State Colonels (FCS) at Oregon State Beavers:  This is a storm-delayed game from Week 2.  Since the Beavers play an FCS game, it won't make a difference in my ranking, so Oregon State remains outside the Top 25, unless both Texas and UCF lose.  OREGON STATE

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Mountaineers defense is weak, but so is Kansas' offense, so this is one team who the Mountaineers can stop.  Their offense will romp, so this will be a huge blowout.  WEST VIRGINIA by 32

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Arkansas State Red Wolves:  This is the de facto Sun Belt title game, as these two teams currently lead the conference.  Middle Tennessee has played better in conference play, but Arkansas State has been a power all season long.  This might be a close game, but I think the Red Wolves will win.  ARKANSAS STATE by six

FCS Playoffs
With the preliminary round out of the way, we get into a full slate of games.  I'll look at this not in order of game time, but in reverse order of rankings.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Wofford Terriers:  Both teams have been here before, with Wofford having won the championship more recently.  New Hampshire faced stiffer competition, but Wofford held South Carolina to only 24 points, so I like their defense.  WOFFORD by eight

Illinois State Redbirds at Appalachian State Mountaineers: The Redbirds had some close games in the Missouri Valley, but were tough non-conference.  Appalachian State started slowly but gained momentum as the season wore on.  I think that momentum will carry them through to the next level.  APPALACHIAN STATE by eleven

Cal Poly Mustangs at #6 Sam Houston State Bearkats:  Time for my first upset pick.  Sam Houston was a force in the Southland Conference, but was only mediocre outside of it.  Cal Poly had a couple of rough games, but they've mostly been a force too tough to overcome.  I think the Mustangs will dominate this game from the first quarter.  Sam Houston may match them in the second half, but the Mustangs will establish a lead too large to lose.  CAL POLY by 14

Central Arkansas Bears at #5 Georgia Southern Eagles:  Central Arkansas looks strong.  They dominated nearly all of their FCS opponents, and they have playoff experience (albeit not at this level).  Georgia Southern, however, is a powerhouse in the playoffs.  Even if their playing is off during the season, they seem to come together during the playoffs (kind of like the FCS' version of the New York Giants).  I have to favor the Eagles here.  GEORGIA SOUTHERN by nine

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #4 Old Dominion Monarchs:  Old Dominion's basketball prowess extended to the football field this season.  The Monarchs were overpowering in the always tough Colonial Athletic Association Conference.  The Chanticleers were a force in the Big South, but non-conference opponents had their way with them.  I think the same will be said of the Monarchs.  OLD DOMINION by 16

Stony Brook Seawolves at #3 Montana State Bobcats:  Stony Brook has a good team, but Montana State was a monster this season.  Aside from their three-point loss to Eastern Washington and a seven-point decision over Southern Utah, this team cruised past their competition.  I don't think they'll have a problem until a likely rematch against Eastern Washington in two weeks.  MONTANA STATE by 15

Wagner Seahawks at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles:  Man, I'm torn.  Naturally I'd like to see the team who beat UAlbany progress far into the playoffs, reinforcing how well the Great Danes might have done.  However, any team that could beat Montana State is a team to take seriously.  It might be close, though.  EASTERN WASHINGTON by eight

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at #1 North Dakota State Bison:  These two faced off three weeks ago in the same locale.  The Bison squeezed out a three-point victory.  The Jackrabbits are looking for payback.  They've had much stronger performances since that game, and have confidence.  I think the Bison are a bit stronger, but the Jackrabbits will give them a scare.  NORTH DAKOTA STATE by four

FBS Conference Championships
I'll do these in chronological order, starting with the two on Friday night.

MAC Championship:  #15 Northern Illinois Huskies v #20 Kent State Golden Flashes:  It's been a few years since both MAC division leaders were ranked, and even longer when both came into the game with 11-1 records.  Truthfully, this one could go either way.  Northern Illinois has had an easier time, so they be the more likely favorite, but I think the closer games have strengthened Kent State's resolve.  I like them for the upset.  KENT STATE by four

PAC-12 Championship:  #18 UCLA Bruins at #12 Stanford Cardinal:  The Cardinal already beat them once in Palo Alto, and I think they'll do it again.  While some people think UCLA laid down in last week's game, so that they didn't have to face Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, I think Stanford has more talent and more offensive diversity.  The Cardinal should win the title fairly easily.  STANFORD by 12

Conference USA Championship:  #23 UCF Golden Knights v Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  No upset here.  Tulsa started the season strong but have faded recently.  UCF has certainly weathered their recent slate of tough games better than Tulsa did.  UCF by 13

SEC Championship:  #3 Alabama Crimson Tide v #5 Georgia Bulldogs:  The winner likely plays Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship.  Alabama has looked vulnerable recently, and Georgia seems to have fixed the errors that were glaringly exposed in the South Carolina game, but I still refuse to pick against Nick Saban in a title game.  ALABAMA by nine

ACC Championship:  #9 Florida State Seminoles v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Give me a break!  Georgia Tech is horribly overmatched here.  FLORIDA STATE by 23

BIG TEN Championship:  #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers v Wisconsin Badgers:  Wisconsin won the Leaders division by default, as both Ohio State and Penn State finished better.  Wisconsin has been horribly inconsistent, especially with their running game, which is usually their strong point.  Nebraska is a strong and steady team who should win their first Big Ten conference title. NEBRASKA by nine

NCAA 2012 Week 13 Top 25

The BCS Championship Game will be Notre Dame against the SEC Champion, while Oregon can't even dream about the Rose Bowl.  A BCS at-large bid is likely, but it's a bitter pill for Oregon for the THIRD straight year.

Upsets have left the bottom of the Top 25 with some strong teams from non-BCS conferences.  Some contenders (like Oregon State and Texas) still play, so next week's rank may see some differences, but for now we have an odd situation, where we have more teams from the WAC (3) in the Top 25 than teams from the Big Ten (2), Big East (0), and Mountain West (2).

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [1] : USC played them tough, but the Irish advance to the BCS Championship Game with one of the toughest defenses in the NCAA
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [2] : They finish the season unbeaten, but a talented slew of underclassmen give them confidence for next year
3.  Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [3] : The best one-loss team must still beat Georgia to advance to the BCS Championship
4.  Oregon Ducks (11-1) [4] : They don't play in the Pac-12 Championship, so this is as far as they go
5.  Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) [6] : They play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  At stake, Georgia's first trip to a BCS title game
6.  Kansas State Wildcats (10-1) [7] : They still have to play one more game, but unless Georgia loses big against Alabama, this is as high as they go
7.  Florida Gators (11-1) [9] : They bruised Florida State to solidify a solid BCS at-large bid
8.  Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) [10] : They padded Johnny Manziel's numbers for a Heisman bid.  Hopefully the voters will ignore most of the second half when they place their votes
9.  Florida State Seminoles (10-2) [5] : Tough loss to Florida sends them into the ACC Championship Game with something to prove
10. LSU Tigers (10-2) [11] : The Tigers round out an SEC domination of the Top Ten, as they hold half of the spots
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [13] : They clobbered Clemson to help the SEC sweep against the ACC this past weekend
12. Stanford Cardinal (10-2) [15] : A solid victory in the Pac-12 title game might propel them into the Top Ten
13. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [8] : The loss to South Carolina was not how they wanted to end the season, especially since they missed a shot at the ACC Championship Game, too
14. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [14] : They still have a game to play, and it might be for the Big XII title
15. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) [17] : If they beat Kent State in the MAC Championship Game, could a leap into the top twelve be possible?
16. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [16] : They play for a possible conference title this week
17. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [19] : The WAC champ continues to climb as they enjoy their first year ever in the Top 25
18. UCLA Bruins (9-3) [12] : The Bruins were spanked in their first outing against Stanford.  Can they turn around and win in the rematch?
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) [NR] : The Huskers earned a place in the Big Ten title game and regained a spot in the Top 25
20. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) [23] : They may need a good performance (win or lose) against Northern Illinois to keep two MAC teams in the Top 25
21. San Jose State Spartans (10-2) [NR] : A third WAC team enters the Top 25 with a commanding victory over Louisiana Tech
22. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) [NR] : They played themselves into a share of the Mountain West title
23. UCF Golden Knights (9-3) [NR] : They won a place in the Conference USA title game
24. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) [20] : Disappointing loss to San Jose State puts their Top 25 existence in jeopardy, with some strong teams just outside
25. USC Trojans (7-5) [18] : Yes, they have five losses, but they have played well in all of their games, and few teams have faced a tougher schedule

On the Edge:  Michigan Wolverines (8-4), Northwestern Wildcats (9-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (9-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-2), Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4), North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4), Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-4), BYU Cougars (7-5)

Dropped:  Oregon State Beavers [#21], Texas Longhorns [#22], Wisconsin Badgers [#24], Louisville Cardinals [#25]

Conference races
All divisions are set, and you can see the winners in this week's picks column, as I pick all of the conference championship games.  Most of the conferences without championship games are still in contention, though.

Big XII:  Texas lost their chance when TCU beat them.  Kansas State has the advantage.  If they beat Texas, they win the conference.  If Texas wins and Oklahoma wins, the Sooners capture the title.  Losses by both Kansas State and Oklahoma gives the Wildcats the title.

Big East:  Rutgers can win in the de facto conference title game against Louisville.  While a Rutgers loss would put three teams on top (four if Cincinnati win), it would likely be Louisville crowned in that case.  A Cincy loss makes a three-way tie where each team has a 1-1 record against the co-leaders.  A Cincy win puts four teams on top, but only Rutgers and Louisville would have 2-1 records against the others; Syracuse and Cincy lost two games.  In the case of a tie, the Big East uses the highest BCS rank, which would be Louisville if they beat Rutgers.

Mountain West:  A Boise State loss against Nevada knocks them out.  If Boise loses, the two co-leaders are Fresno State and San Diego State.  Since Fresno beat the Aztecs, they'd win the conference.  If Boise wins, the three co-leaders each have a 1-1 record against the others.  Again, the highest BCS rank would break the tie, and that will be Boise.

Sun Belt:  This week's game between Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State is the de facto conference championship, as they are the current co-leaders.

WAC:  Utah State already won this one

NFL 2012 Week 12 picks

I'm in the midst of a great streak of successful picks, but I put my prognosticative skills to the test this week.  I'm picking plenty of visiting teams, which is always a risk.

Thanksgiving Day games
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions:  Detroit has lost the last eight Thanksgiving Day games. While they have improved since that streak began, they face the strongest team in the league.  I don't foresee an upset here.  TEXANS, 27-20

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys:  The Cowboys are devastating on Thanksgiving Day; it is often the best day of the season for Tony Romo.  The Redskins have never won in the new Dallas Stadium, and they've never beaten the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  It all spells disaster for Washington.  Thus, I am picking... the Redskins.  HUH?  Look, all streaks have to end sometime, and I think the magical element of RGIII is just the spark Washington needs to break their losing streak in Dallas Stadium, and break their losing streak against Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.  Yes, it's a risky upset pick, but I have a gut feeling on this one.  REDSKINS, 26-23

New England Patriots at New York Jets:  The Pats offense is flying high, and the Jets defense just isn't up to snuff this season.  Easy pick, and easy win.  PATRIOTS, 31-20

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Atltanta has a three-game lead over Tampa Bay.  This sounds like a lock, doesn't it?  I'm not so sure.  Atlanta has been fortunate to win games this season, so I'll still pick them, but watch out for that Bucs defense.  If Matt Ryan throws more than two interceptions this game, they aren't coming back from that.  FALCONS, 26-23

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts:  Hey, my first home team pick!  Buffalo's offense can get hot, and for Indy they might, but their defense allows too many points, and too many opportunities, to give them a real shot.  COLTS, 30-24

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs:  With the Chiefs' wimpy defense, Peyton will have another banner day.  I predict four touchdowns and over 300 yards in a crushing loss.  BRONCOS, 35-20

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears:  The Bears defense can fluster Christian Ponder.  The question is whether they can stop Adrian Peterson, who is having one of his best seasons ever.  The Bears had trouble with Peterson when he first came into the league, but when injuries slowed him, the Bears crushed him.  Peterson looks 100% now, so winning this game will depend upon stopping him.  I think they can, but the Vikes will make it close.  BEARS, 16-13

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals:  The Raiders know one more loss basically takes them out of the playoff race (although I think at least one 8-8 team will make it from the AFC, perhaps two), so they'll be a scrappy bunch.  They'll keep it close, but I think Cincy will maintain an early lead.  BENGALS, 27-23

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns:  The Steelers will not want to drop below .500.  Charlie Batch may not have played for a long time, but he was always a capable backup.  The Browns can be dangerous, but the Steelers know their tendencies, so they can defend against them.  STEELERS, 23-16

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins:  This is not a good week for the AFC East also-rans, as New England should expand their lead to four games with five to play.  Seattle can have an inconsistent offense (although Ruseell Wilson is improving), but their defense is solid.  SEAHAWKS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars  Chad Henne has given the Jags new life.  With Blaine Gabbert on permanent injured reserve, the front office is giving him free rein to try and revive their season.  Last week could have just been a lucky game, considering how long it had been since Henne played, so I won't pick Jacksonville.  Watch out for them, however.  TITANS, 26-23

Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers:  The Ravens defense will be tested against the Chargers offense.  Fortunately the Ravens offense has been producing, which will maintain an edge in the game.  RAVENS, 24-23

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints:  This game will be a barn-burner, and will truly test the arm strength of whichever quarterback starts the game.  If it's Kaepernick, I definitely give the edge to the Saints.  If Smith starts, they might pull off just enough to surpass the Saints, who will be held back somewhat by the 49ers defense.  49ERS, 26-23 (Smith) or SAINTS, 23-20 (Kaepernick)

St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals:  St Louis has been improving of late, but the Cardinals are always an unpredictable team.  I think they'll bring it on for this game, especially knowing this might be their best shot to start a winning streak.  They nearly beat Atlanta last week, which gives them an emotional boost, too.  CARDS, 20-17

Sunday night:  Green Bay Packers at New York Giants:  The Giants had a bye week and a players-only team meeting, so we'll see if they're prepared for this.  Their offense has sputtered recently and the defense isn't quick, which can be a recipe for disaster playing the Pack.  It might be close, but I like the Packers' chances.  PACKERS, 27-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles:  Time for another upset pick as rookie Nick Foles has to lead the error-prone Eagles against Cam Newton and the Panthers.  The Panthers' defense sucks, but so does the Eagles offense, so they offset.  Given the strength of the Panthers offense, I don't think the Eagles can win this one.  PANTHERS, 30-20

NFL 2012 Week 11 power rankings

There was some adjusting of team placements, but the divisions remain in the same positions.  Chicago faced some tough opposition the past two weeks, but their remaining schedule (except a rematch against now division-leading Green Bay) looks good.  The Falcons continue to win due to luck (winning after turning over the ball SIX times!!!) with the Colts are rising fast due to Luck.

Top Half of the League [Last week's position]
1.  Houston Texans (9-1) [1] : Unquestionably the top team in the league, although allowing Jacksonville to score so much in the first half was a surprise.  Chad Henne pulled off some great plays; maybe the Jets should trade for him?
2.  San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) [4] : They slaughtered the Bears with backup QB Jason Campbell, which their rookie backup looks almost better than Alex Smith.  Unfortunately that has ignited a quarterback controversy, and those often cause teams to slide.
3.  Atlanta Falcons (9-1) [3] : They need to turn the ball over less, and show more consistency, for me to believe they can win their first playoff game with Matt Ryan
4.  New England Patriots (7-3) [5] : There is no offense playing better right now
5.  Chicago Bears (7-3) [2] : They looked sick this week, but they have a chance to look better this week
6.  Denver Broncos (7-3) [6] : Peyton has this team moving, and they have become a true threat in the AFC
7.  Baltimore Ravens (8-2) [7] : They manhandled Byron Leftwich, but many teams have done that in his career.  The offense needs to improve or they won't move far in the playoffs.
8.  Green Bay Packers (7-3) [8] : They now lead the NFC North, but consistency on offense is necessary
9.  Tampa Bay Bucs (6-4) [10] : They engineered a phenomenal comeback against the Panthers, scoring 20 unanswered points (six of them in overtime) to maintain their winning streak
10. New York Giants (6-4) [9]
11. Seattle Seahaws (6-4) [11]
12. Minnesota Vikings (6-4) [13] : Three bye teams in a row.  There should be a song there somewhere :)
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) [12] : Leftwich wasn't the answer.  Charlie Batch returns, and he was a stable backup for Big Ben over the years.  How cold will he be, though?  This team could fall below .500
14. New Orleans Saints (5-5) [17] : The Saints are marching into the top half of the league, as the offense has finally found its rhythm
15. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5) [18] : Cincy returns to the top half of the power rankings with a strong win, but it was against KC.  Let's see if they can maintain that against tougher opposition
16. San Diego Chargers (4-6) [14] : Their offense looks good, but their defense is faltering.  They need to improve or they will be gone from the top of the league.

Division Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC North [1] : They have three teams in the top half of the league's power and Detroit doesn't stink, although they cannot play up to the potential of their talent.  If Chicago recovers their defensive swagger and Adrian Peterson continues to help Minnesota's offense, they could remain on top for the rest of the season.
2.  NFC South [2] : New Orleans' offensive improvement gives them three teams in the upper half of the league's power, as well.  Carolina will keep dragging them down, though.
3.  AFC North [3] : The only AFC division with three teams in the upper half of power, the Steelers are moving down and Cincy can't make up their minds how they want to play
4.  NFC West [4] : The 49ers and Seahawks are threats, and even Arizona and St Louis can play teams tough.  Don't turn your back on any of these guys
5.  AFC East [5] : The Patriots clearly pull this division, but at least they have no atrocious teams (although the Jets are starting to get there).  That beats the other AFC divisions that aren't the North
6.  NFC East [6] : The Giants bye may give them a chance to get their act together.  Washington and Dallas have spurts of brilliance, while the Eagles are falling fast
7.  AFC South [7] : Indianapolis is moving up, so it's no longer a one-team division.  They might leap over the NFC East within a couple of weeks.
8.  AFC West [8] : San Diego cannot play consistently well, and Oakland and KC are pathetic.

NCAA 2012 Week 13 picks

Due to a stomach flu that kept me in bed or in the bathroom the past couple of days, this column is a bit late.  As such, I won't post my prediction for tonight's (Tues) game, to prevent claims that I am influenced by the score through 3 quarters.  I had previously picked Toledo, which is holding.

Upsets were prominent last week, as anyone who follows NCAA football is aware.  The two biggest upsets toppled the top two teams, as Kansas State's defense couldn't slow Baylor and Stanford's defense found ways to stifle Oregon's high-powered offense.  The MAC continued their recent streak of upsets, as Central Michigan shocked Miami Ohio and doormat Eastern Michigan beat Western Michigan.  In the ACC, Duke's good season was tilted by a shocking loss to Georgia Tech, who were apparently warming up for their bout against Georgia.  A marginal upset was delivered by West Virginia, who nearly beat Oklahoma State.

Thanksgiving Night:  TCU Horned Frogs at #22 Texas Longhorns:  After enjoying the NFL, sit down to enjoy Texas.  The Thanksgiving game has frequently been Texas-Texas A&M, but with the Aggies' departure to the SEC Texas is apparently installing a new Big XII rival in this slot.  Enter TCU, who is not likely to exit Austin with a victory.  TEXAS by 13

Friday games:
Lots of action on the day after Thanksgiving.  The MAC features prominently, but the afternoon sees other conferences get involved.

#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks:  LSU should have a strong finish, unless struggling Arkansas suddenly wakes up.  LSU by 20

#17 Northern Illinois Huskies at Eastern Michigan Eagles:  Northern Illinois has already won their division, and so may relax a bit so they don't injury key players.  Even relaxed, the Huskies should beat the Eagles.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine

Ohio Bobcats at #23 Kent State Golden Flashes:  This could get to be an interesting game.  Will the Golden Flashes rest their key players to keep them healthy for the MAC Championship Game?  If so, Ohio is likely to win.  If Kent State wants to complete their first eleven-win season, though, they have the strength to do so.  I'm going to bet that Kent State plays conservatively, and thus allows for another MAC upset.  OHIO by six

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa has nothing to play for except pride, as they cannot go to a bowl game now.  Nebraska wins their chance at the Big Ten Championship Game.  That's too much incentive for Nebraska to blow this one.  NEBRASKA by twelve


West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclones:  This game could go either way.  The Cyclones offense is not quick enough to keep up with West Virginia if the defense can't slow them down.  West Virginia wants a win to be bowl eligible, while Iowa State already is.  I'm not sure the Cyclones defense can hold back the Mountaineers enough.  The Cyclones might lead going into the fourth, but I think West Virginia comes out on top.  WEST VIRGINIA by eight

Saturday - Top 25:
Michigan Wolverines at #2 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Records go right out the window when this rivalry plays.  However, the possibility of Denard Robinson on the sidelines increases the likelihood of a Buckeye win.  Even if he plays, I don't think he'll be 100%.  OHIO STATE by eight

Auburn Tigers at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Auburn will go winless in conference play and Alabama will seal their bid to the SEC Championship Game, since the Tide once again have a shot at the BCS title game.  ALABAMA by 23

#4 Oregon Ducks at #21 Oregon State Beavers:  Another rivalry game where records don't matter, the Civil War explodes this year.  Oregon needs the victory to have any chance of reaching the Pac-12 title game, and they'd still need help from UCLA.  The Beavers would love to play spoiler against their in-state rivals.  Stanford showed the Beavers defense how to beat the Ducks offense; the question is whether Oregon State's defense can do it.  There is a big difference between knowing how to do something and actually doing it.  Worse, Oregon has too much incentive to win this game.  It'll be close, but I favor the Ducks.  OREGON by six

#9 Florida Gators at #5 Florida State Seminoles:  I don't tend to like Florida State, as I don't think they are clean program at all, and they stay off probation because the NCAA turns a blind eye to what they do.  However, in this case, I want to see the Seminoles win, mainly because I am tired of hearing Florida whine that they deserve a shot at the BCS title game.  The Gators have not looked that good this season.  Aside from the surprise against South Carolina, the Gators best performances have been against Tennessee, Kentucky, and FCS Jacksonville State.  I can't believe the AP voters have them in the top five!  I want the Seminoles to mop up the floor with them, just to shut them up.  FLORIDA STATE by 16

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #6 Georgia Bulldogs:  The Yellow Jackets pulled off an upset last week, seemingly to prepare for this game.  I don't think it'll help them.  Georgia Tech's main advantage is their low tackles, so it's hard for players to break tackles for extra yardage. The Bulldogs are strong and quick, though, and could hop above those tackles.  GEORGIA by 20

#13 South Carolina Gamecocks at #8 Clemson Tigers:  Another long-standing rivalry game, Clemson has the momentum for this game, as the Gamecocks' best performances were earlier in the season.  They have not been truly impressive since their win over Georgia.  Clemson, on the other hand, has been putting on a showcase in recent weeks.  I have to think that will continue.  CLEMSON by twelve

Missouri Tigers at #10 Texas A&M Aggies:  The Aggies will already know by kickoff if they have a shot at the SEC title game.  I doubt it, but that won't stop them from drilling the Tigers.  With Kansas State's bye, Johnny Mansell want to gain Heisman votes over Collin Klein.  TEXAS A&M by 27

#15 Stanford Cardinal at #12 UCLA Bruins:  Oh, the drama! The Bruins have already won the Pac-12 South.  If they don't want to face to face this same Cardinal team next week in the Pac-12 title game, they need to beat them and root for Oregon State to beat Oregon.  The Civil War should be nearly over when this game kicks off, so the Bruins will know if they have the chance to knock off Stanford.  If Oregon loses the Civil War, I don't think the Bruins will play as hard, preferring to watch Stanford and devise a strategy for next week's Pac-12 Championship Game.  If Oregon wins, as I predict, the Bruins are capable of surprising the Cardinal and pulling off the win.  UCLA by four

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #14 Oklahoma Sooners:  Another rivalry game where records almost don't matter.  There is a potential conference title at stake here.  If the Sooners win, they remove Texas from title contention and continue to chase Kansas State for the title.  The Cowboys will play this one tough, but I think they'll come up short.  OKLAHOMA by six

Idaho Vandals at #19 Utah State Aggies:  The Aggies have the WAC title already, but even if they play relaxed, they'll beat the poor Vandals.  UTAH STATE by 23

#20 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans:  This game is for the runner-up in the WAC.  It would also give Tech their first ten-win season since moving up to the WAC and give them a strong bowl berth.  The Spartans will be a tough opponent, but I think Tech has the strength to win this one.  LOUISIANA TECH by nine

#24 Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions:  The Badgers would like a win entering into the Big Ten title game, but their consistency has been off.  Their offense has been playing better, but the Lions defense is pretty strong.  This will be a close game, and the Badgers might win, but I actually like Penn State to close out their season on a win.  PENN STATE by four

UConn Huskies at #25 Louisville Cardinals:  Louisville needs to win this one to have a shot at the Big East title, otherwise they give the title to Rutgers (unless Pitt does the unthinkable and wins).  UConn is struggling in conference play, so I like that chance.  LOUISVILLE by 16

Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats:  Illinois' best chance to win a conference game has already passed them by.  They won't win this game, as Northwestern places themselves in contention for a New Years Day bowl.  NORTHWESTERN by 17

Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue has won two in a row, jumping over Indiana in the Leaders standings.  Moreover, they can become bowl eligible with this win, while Indy has already lost their chances.  Indy has played spoiler in the past, and could do so again, but I have to give Purdue a chance to let their momentum carry them to a bowl.  Besides, it would be nice for the Big Ten to come a bit closer in fulfilling their bowl obligations.  PURDUE by four

Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Believe it or not, despite Ohio State and Penn State being ineligible for postseason play, the Big Ten could fulfill their minimum bowl obligations.  They have seven committed bowls, and a Spartan win (along with Purdue above) could give them seven eligible teams.  Minnesota's going to want to play spoiler, but the Spartans are feisty in these "do or die" situations.  MICHIGAN STATE by three

Other Games of Interest
Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils:  Duke is already bowl bound, so how hard will they play?  Miami needs this win to capture the ACC Coastal title.  That's a lot of incentive, but Duke also doesn't want to have a two-game losing streak going into the bowls.  This game will likely change leaders several times before the Hurricanes pull it out on a last second field goal.  MIAMI by two

Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels:  The Terrapins are moving to Big Ten play starting in 2014.  While I don't like the idea of the Big Ten becoming a "super conference," it will add intrigue to the basketball season.  On the football field, however, Maryland will be even more embarrassed than they are in ACC play, an example of which will be this game.  NORTH CAROLINA by 26

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Pitt Panthers:  A win here maintains Rutgers' unbeaten conference record and propels them one step closer to a Big East title.  Pitt has threatened some conference teams, but has closed it out only once.  They won't close this one.  RUTGERS by nine

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at SMU Mustangs: Tulsa has already won the Conference USA West title, so will they slack off for this game?  They might, but the idea of achieving their first eleven-win season might keep them motivated.  TULSA by 16

Air Force Falcons at Fresno State Bulldogs:  With byes by Boise State and San Diego State, Fresno could take a temporary lead in the Mountain West with a win.  FRESNO STATE by twelve

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #18 USC Trojans:  Everyone is starting to predict a Notre Dame v Alabama BCS title game, but the Trojans may have something to say about that.  This Trojan team has definitely not shown themselves to be as strong as former squads, but they have the talent.  If they can play a flawless game, they can upset the Irish.  The question is, will the receivers prevent dropping so many passes?  I think the Irish will win, as USC has not had many flawless games, but the Trojans may come back in the fourth and put a scare into Irish fans.  NOTRE DAME by six

FCS Playoffs - First Round:
Eastern Illinois Panthers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits:  In a contest of Panthers versus Jackrabbits, the big mammal would have the edge.  This is not the animal kingdom, however.  Eastern Illinois has been here before, but so has the Jackrabbits, albeit in Division II.  Like their namesake, the Jackrabbits are fast on all squads.  That speed may prove too much for the Panthers, who will lead at the half but tire under the relentless speed of the Jackrabbits.  SOUTH DAKOTA STATE by six

Colgate Raiders at Wagner Seahawks:  Geez, this looks like an old AFC West matchup!  The further Wagner goes in the playoffs, the better it looks for UAlbany, so of course I favor them.  However, you have to watch Colgate.  They've been in the playoffs before, and they like the underdog position.  Colgate didn't play the level of non-conference opposition that Wagner did, but Colgate had a better non-conference record.  This game will be close, but sentiment drives me to favor Wagner.  WAGNER by six

Villanova Wildcats at Stony Brook Seawolves:  As a loyal member of the SUNY family, I have to favor Stony Brook.  Truthfully, I would anyway.  While Villanova is more used to the playoffs, Stony Brook has engineered some great victories this season.  Talentwise, they are in the top ten among FCS schools, and that talent should propel them to the second round.  STONY BROOK by fifteen

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats  Just what the hell is a "chanticleer" anyway?  It looks like a old rooster with eyeglasses.  Doesn't sound like it deserves to be on the same playing field as a Wildcat.  The Chanticleers had a surprising successful season, but the playoffs are a strange place for them.  While BC is not a frequent playoff team either, they know what it takes to win big games.  BETHUNE-COOKMAN by 18

NCAA 2012 Week 12 Top 25

After Alabama fell last week, both top teams lost this week, leaving only two unbeatens and some interesting questions for the BCS.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [7] : They have been the least impressive of the unbeatens (remember the 3 overtimes against Pitt?), but they remain the only BCS eligible unbeaten.  If they beat USC this week, they advance to the BCS National Championship.
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) [3] : The toast of the Big Ten (which isn't such an honor this year) must be regretting their probation, but Urban Meyer has plenty of underclassmen on this squad, so I'm betting their stick around for a shot next year.
3.  Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1) [4] : Definitely the best one-loss team, the Tide have another shot at the BCS National Championship, especially if they beat Georgia in the SEC Championship
4.  Oregon Ducks (10-1) [1] : One foot from a second overtime and contention for the National Championship, the Ducks will now find themselves rooting for USC.
5.  Florida State Seminoles (10-1) [5] : The Seminoles still have a chance for a berth in the BCS National Championship, if Notre Dame loses to USC or either Alabama or Oregon lose again
6.  Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [6] : The Bulldogs may have benefited the most from this weekend, as a win in the SEC Championship Game could propel them to the BCS National Championship Game
7.  Kansas State Wildcats (10-1) [2] : Their defense couldn't slow Baylor at all, suffering the worst loss by an unbeaten in recent weeks.  Getting back to the BCS title race will mean losses to Notre Dame, Oregon, and Florida State.
8.  Clemson Tigers (10-1) [10] : Clemson failed to the reach the ACC Championship Game, but a BCS at-large bid is possible
9.  Florida Gators (10-1) [8] : Less than stellar performance against an FCS also-ran
10. Texas A&M Aggies (9-2) [11] : The engineer of Alabama's loss is the best two-loss team
11. LSU (9-2) [9] : They almost lost to Ole Miss and have no shot at the SEC title game.  I'm sure they were expecting better.
12. UCLA Bruins [13] : They won their way into the Pac-12 title game and won the crosstown rivalry
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) [12] : Not an especially strong game against Wofford
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [14] : A one-point victory wasn't great, but it keeps them on track for a potential Big XII title
15. Stanford Cardinal (9-2) [18] : Stanford actually now leads their division, jeopardizing Oregon's chances for the BCS title game
16. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [16]
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-1) [17] : They are the only division leader or contender who avoided upsets the past two weeks
18. USC Trojans (7-4) [15] : They can redeem their season with an upset over Notre Dame
19. Utah State Aggies (9-2) [25] : They outplayed Louisiana Tech to capture the WAC title
20. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-2) [19] : Two WAC teams could finish the season in the Top 25, a minor miracle.
21. Oregon State Beavers (8-2) [23] : Strong win leading into the Civil War against Oregon
22. Texas Longhorns (8-2) [20] : The bye week hurt them, as other teams surpassed them
23. Kent State Golden Flashes (10-1) [21] : They beat Bowling Green to capture the MAC East title, but stronger wins by Oregon State and Utah State dropped them
24. Wisconsin Badgers (7-4) [24] : They forced Ohio State to overtime, so even a loss couldn't remove them from the Top 25
25. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [22]

On the Edge:  Michigan Wolverines (8-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-1), San Jose State Spartans (9-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3), Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2), UCF Golden Knights (8-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-2), Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (7-4), North Carolina Tar Heels (7-4)

Conference/division races
Most of the races are set, but some are still interesting.  There are conferences without title games that won't be determined until after next week's games, so I'll provide one more recap next week

ACC Atltantic:  Florida State has won this division
ACC Coastal:  Since North Carolina is ineligible, this is between Georgia Tech and Miami.  If Miami beats Duke this week, they capture the title.  If Duke wins, the Yellow Jackets will likely win with a 6-6 record after losing to Georgia

Big XII:  Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all have a chance.  If K State beats Texas, they win.  Oklahoma can win with a Texas victory and winning out against Oklahoma State and TCU.  Texas can win by winning out and watching a Sooner loss.

Big East:  This one will be decided next week when Rutgers and Louisville tangle

Big Ten Legends:  A Nebraska win earns them the title.  Michigan would need to beat Ohio State and hope Iowa beats the Cornhuskers
Big Ten Leaders:  Wisconsin won

Conference USA East:  UCF captures the title if they beat UAB.  East Carolina needs to win and hope the Blazers win.
Conference USA West:  Tulsa won this title

MAC:  The title contenders are set, as Kent State represents the East and Northern Illinois represents the West.  This is the first conference to decide its title game participants, as the SEC has delayed that decision

Mountain West:  This conference currently has a three-way tie where each team has a 1-1 record against the others.  If it finishes in a three-way tie, the higher BCS-ranked team wins, which right now would be Boise.  San Diego State has the best chance for a win, as they face Wyoming.  Fresno State hosts Air Force, which should be a win.  Boise State has the toughest game to finish, as they face Nevada.

Pac-12 North:  Stanford now could take the title.  They simply need to beat UCLA in what may be a preview of the Pac-12 title game.  If they lose and Oregon wins the Civil War, the Ducks go to the Pac-12 title game.  If both lose or both win, Stanford holds the tiebreaker.  However, the Oregon State Beavers still have a chance.  Since they beat Stanford, a Cardinal loss and a Beaver win in the Civil War escalates Oregon State to the Pac-12 Championship Game, as they would have the best record against the other two teams in a three-way tie.
Pac-12 South:  UCLA has won

SEC East:  Georgia won this title a couple of weeks ago
SEC West:  Alabama wins the title with a victory over struggling Auburn.  If the Tide loses and both LSU and Aggies win, it gets interesting.  A three-way tie might benefit A&M, who may be the highest ranked of the three.

Sun Belt:  Next week's game between Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee will decide the title.

WAC:  Utah State captured this title with their dramatic win over Louisiana Tech

NFL 2012 Week 11 picks

Some interesting matchups this week.  I pick more home teams, but there are several chances for the other team to win.

Thursday night:  Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Tannehill has not been a consistent force for the Dolphins, but their offense is certainly better than the Bills.  Defensively the Dolphins have the advantage, too.  DOLPHINS, 24-16

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons:  They are no longer unbeaten, so the pressure is off.  Now the Falcons can focus on driving through to the playoffs, where hopefully they can win a game.  The Cards started well this season but have collapsed.  They are still capable of scoring points, but stopping Atlanta will be a challenge.  FALCONS, 23-16

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs surprised the Steelers last week, but I don't think they have two in a row in them.  Cincy has a good offense, although their defense is iffy.  Matt Cassel should have opportunities to move the ball, but Andy Dalton can move it better.  He proved that last week.  Consistency has been his problem, but his offense has re-committed themselves to winning out and gaining a playoff berth.  Given the collapse of the AFC East and AFC West also-rans (those trailing the division leader), that seems possible.  BENGALS, 27-21

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys:  This will be a close game.  I'd like to pick the Browns, but they are too inconsistent to trust.  Besides, the offensive woes of the Giants could be the incentive Dallas needs to get themselves moving.  They slaughtered Philly last week and are only two games back from the Giants in the NFC East.  They have talent, if they can get coordinated and stop dropping passes and missing tackles.  COWBOYS, 23-20

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  The Bears loss puts Green Bay just one game behind the NFC North leader, and they beat the Bears earlier this season.  They have incentive to push forward.  Detroit is capable of moving the ball, and Green Bay's defense has been less than stellar this season, but I think the Pack will pull this one out.  PACKERS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans:  The worst offense in the league faces the best defense in the AFC.  This one is no contest, and likely the biggest margin of the week.  TEXANS, 27-10

New York Jets at St Louis Rams:  The Jets are now seriously talking about giving Tebow significant playing time, but it may be too late.  Besides, without much help from his receivers, he's going to be running it too often.  The Rams have better weapons, as they proved against the 49ers.  RAMS, 24-16

Sunday late games
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots:  Brady usually won these battles when Peyton led the Colts offense, but Peyton is in Denver (who Brady beat earlier this season).  With Luck at the helm, and getting quite comfortable against pro defenses, this could be an interesting game.  Luck still has a few things to learn, but a struggling and inconsistent Pats defense opens the door for the visiting Colts, on a five-game winning streak, to win. I'll pick the Pats, but that Colts win streak could continue.  PATRIOTS, 26-23

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders:  I don't see them disappointing after their upset of Atlanta.  The Raiders have been giving up too many points, and the Saints offense seems to have worked out their early season kinks.  The porous Saints defense will allow the Raiders to score, but not enough. SAINTS, 30-23

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos:  San Diego is slipping, while Peyton has the Broncos winning.  The Broncos have a two-game lead in the division; after this game, they'll have a three-game lead.  BRONCOS, 26-23

Sunday night:  Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Ravens should win this game, but last week's ugly loss may inspire Pittsburgh to shape up and play right.  The Ravens are dangerous, but I'm going for the upset in this one.  STEELERS, 26-24

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers:  After last week's ugly loss, I'd love to pick the Bears.  If this game were on Sunday, I might.  However, the Bears often do poorly on Monday Night Football, and the 49ers also need an inspirational win after the embarrassing tie last week.  49ERS, 21-16

NFL 2012 Week 10 power rankings

There were some interesting results, as the Falcons suffered their first loss and the AFC won most of the AFC v NFC matchups.  Is this the start of a power shift in the league?

Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1.  Houston Texans (8-1) [2] : The top team in the AFC now leads the league after beating the Bears in a miserable game (both offensively and weather-wise)
2.  Chicago Bears (7-2) [1] : They lost, but their defense still held.  What other team can suffer five turnovers and still lose by only one score?
3.  Atlanta Falcons (8-1) [3] : I knew it was a matter of time, but losing to New Orleans either shows that the Falcons didn't take them seriously or the Saints are definitely out of their funk!
4.  San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1) [4] : The first tie in four years, and some players didn't even realize that could happen!
5.  New England Patriots (6-3) [5] : They let the Bills score a lot of points, so their defense seems suspect
6.  Denver Broncos (6-3) [7] : Peyton didn't throw three touchdowns, but he still posted good numbers in a fifth consecutive win
7.  Baltimore Ravens (7-2) [9] : The defense is down a bit, but if the offense can generate those kind of numbers every week, they don't need so strong a defense!
8.  Green Bay Packers (6-3) [8]
9.  New York Giants (6-4) [6] : Second straight loss, and the Giants don't seem so strong anymore.  The offense had trouble moving against a mediocre Bengals defense, and they made too many mistakes.
10. Tampa Bay Bucs (5-4) [11] : The defense did their job, and the offense really delivered!  This team is becoming a multi-dimensional threat.
11. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) [12] : They completely dominated the Jets in a game that might finally see the curtain fall on Marc Sanchez
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) [10] : They blew a comeback against the Chiefs by letting the game go to overtime.  Too many penalties -- very unlike the usually well-disciplined Steelers
13. Minnesota Vikings (6-4) [15] : They powerfully beat Detroit to creep a half-game behind Green Bay
14.San Diego Chargers (4-5) [13] : They lost, but they still have more offensive punch than most of the league
15. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [19] : They continue to win, and Andrew Luck is starting to generate Rookie of the Year talk.
16. Detroit Lions (4-5) [16]

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC North [1] : This division has been atop the league nearly the whole season.  Not even losses by the Bears and Lions could knock them off.  They are the only division with three teams having at least six victories.
2.  NFC South [2] : The Saints win and Tampa's strength, as well as Atlanta's now aborted win streak, keep this division aloft, despite the collapse of the Panthers
3.  AFC North [4] : Baltimore is not fading; if anything, they are getting stronger.  Cincy can't be counted out, and Pitt is still a threat
4.  NFC West [3] : This division got a shock from the Rams-49ers tie
5 (tie).  AFC East [5] : The Pats keep winning, but they are putting distance between themselves and the rest of the division.  While their position remained the same, the gap between #5 and the rest is shrinking.
5 (tie). NFC East [6] : With the Giants collapse, nobody looks good.  This division is likely on their way down
5 (tie). AFC South [8] : Out of the cellar for the first time in weeks, thanks to big wins by Indy and Tennessee, this division may surpass the two eastern ones if the Titans can improve.
8.  AFC West [7] : Not far behind the 3-way tie for #5, Denver is pulling this division, after San Diego lost this week.

NCAA 2012 Week 12 picks

Upsets were prominent last week, the most prominent of which was Alabama's loss.  The upsets began on Tuesday and Wednesday, as two MAC division favorites, Toledo and Ohio, suffered losses.  Both played at home.  Alabama wasn't the only unbeaten unseated, as Syracuse rolled over Louisville. The ACC, who had remained fairly upset-free this season, saw a couple of them, as Miami fell to Virginia and Georgia Tech stunned North Carolina.  Purdue upset Iowa to gain their first conference win.  The SEC saw two marginal upsets, as Florida struggled against Louisiana-Lafayette and LSU tormented the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Wednesday games
Ohio Bobcats at Ball State Cardinals:  Maybe the Bobcats will have better luck as a visitor.  They are no longer playing for the division title, but they are definitely playing for a good bowl bid.  So is Ball State.  Ohio has had more impressive victories this season, but they have been less impressive of late.  Ball State has the momentum, but home MAC teams didn't do so well last week.  I'll pick Ohio, but this one could go either way.  OHIO by four

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies:  This one is for the MAC West title.  Northern Illinois has the power, and had a bye week to prepare.  Toledo is working on a short week, and I think the Huskies offense will exhaust that defense by the fourth quarter.  NORTHERN ILLINOIS by thirteen

Thursday night:  North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers:  Can the Cavs make it two in a row?  Will the Heels suffer consecutive losses?  Certainly the latter is possible, but the former seems unlikely.  The Tar Heels' massive offense will shred the Cavs defense.  NORTH CAROLINA by 20

Friday night: Hawaii Warriors at Air Force Falcons:  Hawaii is a joke in the Mountain West.  The Warriors haven't won a single conference game, and I don't think the Falcons will give them their first.  AIR FORCE by sixteen

Top 25
#18 Stanford Cardinal at #1 Oregon Ducks:  Uh oh, we could have the Number One team fall two weeks in a row!  Stanford can be tough, and their defense is fast enough to go after the high-powered Ducks offense.  Most importantly, they won't run out of steam like Cal did.  This game will be close, but I'll pick Oregon.  OREGON by eight

#2 Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears:  Kansas State's defense already proved themselves against Texas Tech and TCU.  Baylor won't be any more successful, and the poor Baylor defense will let the Wildcats roll, even if Collin Klein needs to sit for a while.  KANSAS STATE by 24

#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at #24 Wisconsin Badgers:  Poor Wisconsin!  They win the Big Ten Leaders division, finally get back to the Top 25, and then they have to play the Buckeyes.  That was a short-lived Top 25 reign.  OHIO STATE by ten

Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #4 Alabama Crimson Tide:  There are plenty of FCS v FBS games this week, surprising for so late in the season.  What's more interesting is that all of the FBS teams are in the SEC.  I guess they wanted easy games to close the season.  At least 'Bama doesn't have to worry about being upset this week!  ALABAMA by lots

#5 Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins:  The Seminoles clinch the ACC Atlantic division with this win.  They'll get it, although Maryland may play tough in the first half.  FLORIDA STATE by sixteen

Georgia Southern Eagles (FCS) at #6 Georgia Bulldogs:  Another easy FCS opponent for the SEC.  GEORGIA by over 30

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  The Irish will use Wake Forest as a warmup for their battle against USC.  Unfortunately the score won't be nearly as close.  NOTRE DAME by 20

Jacksonville State Gasmecocks (FCS) at #8 Florida Gators:  Florida already beat one Gamecocks team, and that was by 33 points.  This victory will likely be bigger.  FLORIDA by tons

Ole Miss Rebels at #9 LSU Tigers:  LSU stands no chance to gain the SEC West, but they know a strong bowl is in their future if they win out.  Ole Miss won't be that tough an obstacle.  LSU by sixteen

NC State Wolf Pack at #10 Clemson Tigers:  The Tigers are hoping for a Seminole loss.  By game time they'll know if they stand a chance at the ACC Championship Game.  Whether Florida State wins or loses, the Tigers should win this game, as NC State isn't that tough.  The margin may be close, though, as the Tigers won't have as much to play for.  CLEMSON by nine

San Houston State Bearkats (FCS) at #11 Texas A&M Aggies:  A nice easy opponent as reward for upsetting Alabama last week.  TEXAS A&M by a large margin

Wofford Terriers (FCS) at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks:  This is the final FCS v FBS to discuss (although Auburn also gets one), and it will be as large a wipeout as the others.  SOUTH CAROLINA by a bunch

#13 Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Sooners defense will successfully limit the Mountaineers, and the lack of a defense by West Virginia will let Oklahoma light up the scoreboard.  OKLAHOMA by 21

Colorado State Rams at #16 Boise State Broncos:  Boise is still chasing the Mountain West title.  Colorado State isn't much of an obstacle, so Boise State can use the practice before facing Nevada next week.  BOISE STATE by 24

#25 Utah State Aggies at #19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:  This one is likely for the WAC title, especially if Utah State wins.  The Bulldogs have the better offense, but their defense has some holes for the Aggies to exploit.  Can the Aggies slow the Bulldogs enough to outscore them?  This will likely be a close game with a few lead changes.  I'll favor the home team, but watch out for an Aggie push in the fourth quarter.  LOUISIANA TECH by four

#21 Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons:  The MAC East title is on the line!  Kent State has been dominant in conference play, but the Falcons can be tricky, especially at home.  They also have momentum coming into this game, having upset Ohio last week.  I'll pick Kent State, but watch out for an upset here!  KENT STATE by six

Cal Golden Bears at #23 Oregon State Beavers:  Cal played Oregon tough in the first half last week.  Can they play a full game against the Beavers?  The Beavers want to make up for their tight loss against Stanford.  I think the Beavers are more determined, but Cal will make it tough.  OREGON STATE by nine

Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines:  A loss takes Iowa out of bowl eligibility, but Michigan is chasing Nebraska for the Big Ten Legends division title.  They showed last week that it doesn't matter who plays quarterback, that offense will still move.  MICHIGAN by 16

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans can redeem their disappointing season, and become bowl eligible, with an upset win.  It's possible, but I think Northwestern is the more consistent and better structured team.  NORTHWESTERN by six

Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Indiana wants to become bowl eligible, but Penn State is playing for pride.  This win will guarantee a winning season, a confirmation of the strength of this team and the devotion of the players who did not leave school to play somewhere else.  PENN STATE by 18

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Since Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over Michigan, a win here seals the Big Ten Legends division for them.  They should get their chance to go to the Big Ten Championship Game, and possibly step into the Top 25.  NEBRASKA by 13

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Before last week's upset over Iowa, I thought this might be Illinois' best chance for a conference win.  I think that's still the case, but the likelihood seems less.  At least Illinois' failure to win a conference game isn't as big news as Auburn's inability to do so.  PURDUE by four

Other Games of Interest
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats:  Rutgers wins the title by winning out, but Cincy and Louisville are breathing down their necks.  Rutgers certainly has shown to be the most stable of all of them; Cincy has sort of collapsed after their first loss.  Hosting Rutgers might force them to get their act together, but I'll still pick Rutgers.  RUTGERS by nine

UCF Golden Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  The Golden Knights find themselves in a similar situation as their Scarlet namesakes at Rutgers.  UCF can capture the Conference USA East title with a win, but they face the Conference USA West winner.  This will be a hard-fought close game which may come down to the last possession and the better kicker. I'll pick UCF, but watch out for Tulsa.  UCF by three

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Tech has the offense, State has some defense, but State has some offense, too.  The better mix is why the Cowboys are my favorite.  OKLAHOMA STATE by eleven

BYU Cougars at San Jose State Spartans:  San Jose still has a remote chance at the WAC title.  BYU won't make a difference, but they do make an excellent practice squad.  SAN JOSE STATE by eight

FCS Game of the Week:  This is the final week of FCS play, as the playoffs start next week.  I'll pick all the playoff games and include them in the blog post.  For now, let's look at...
Eastern Illinois Panthers at Central Arkansas Bears:  The Ohio Valley leader faces the Southland co-leader in a battle for playoff position.  A loss actually takes Eastern Illinois out of the FCS playoff picture, despite the conference win, so they have more to play for.  Central Arkansas isn't used to this type of game, as this is their first successful year in FCS.  I like the Panthers, but this will be a close one.  EASTERN ILLINOIS by four

GAME OF THE WEEK: #15 USC Trojans at #14 UCLA Bruins:  Come on, you didn't think I'd forgotten this game, did you?  The battle for the Pac-12 South actually favors UCLA, although never discount USC.  Notre Dame is actually hoping for a USC win, as another Trojan loss reduces their strength of schedule and practically eliminates them from the BCS title game, unless Oregon loses.  USC will certainly play tough, but Matt Barkley has not been impressive recently, and the Bruins will pester him.  UCLA by six

NCAA 2012 Week 11 Top 25

Alabama fell!  The top of the chart and bottom shifted, but the upper middle remained stable.  With only three weeks left, it gets interesting.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Oregon Ducks (10-0) [2] : They started slow, but the offense exploded in the second half to capture the top position.
2.  Kansas State Wildcats (10-0) [3] : The Wildcats had a strong victory, but they couldn't move against a weak TCU defense.  Does that expose a weakness on the offense?
3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) [4] : Moving up in a bye week.  How great is that?
4.  Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1) [1] : They suffered their first loss, but they nearly came back to win.  Those defensive linemen need to watch where the line is.
5.  Florida State Seminoles (9-1) [5] : They are looking more like the ACC Champion
6.  Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7] : They captured the SEC East with a dominating victory
7.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [6] : They didn't need overtime to win, but they still look lackluster
8.  Florida Gators (9-1) [8] : No SEC Championship, and likely no BCS bowl game, either
9.  LSU Tigers (8-2) [9] : A twenty-point win over Mississippi State may be their best win of the season
10. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [10] : They powered through a strong victory in preparation for their battle with Florida State
11. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [11] : They knocked 'Bama off the top, but won't make the SEC Championship Game
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) [12] : They let Arkansas score late in the fourth just to make them feel better.  Since they are out of the SEC race, they can afford to be generous
13. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [13] : The Sooners defense couldn't hold Baylor, but their offense could outscore them
14. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [14] : They led Washington State by a lot, but then let the Cougars run wild in the fourth quarter
15. USC Trojans (7-3) [15] : They slaughtered Arizona State to warm up for Notre Dame
16. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [20] : Trying to regain their footing in the Mountain West
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-1) [17]
18. Stanford Cardinal (8-2) [NR] : Stanford knocked off Oregon State and proved they still have power
19. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-1) [18] : They struggled to fight off Texas State
20. Texas Longhorns (8-2) [21]
21. Kent State Golden Flashes (9-1) [22]
22. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [19] : The other unbeaten who fell this week, the Cardinals now have to chase Rutgers for the Big East title
23. Oregon State Beavers (7-2) [16] : Tough road loss as Stanford gave it to them
24. Wisconsin Badgers (7-3) [NR] : Huge dominating win, and terrific offensive performance, returns this team to the Top 25
25. Utah State Aggies (8-2) [25]

On the Edge:  UCF Golden Knights (8-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-1), San Jose State Spartans (8-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (8-3), Michigan Wolverines (7-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-2), Ohio Bobcats (8-2), Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2), BYU Cougars (6-4), Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3), Toledo Rockets (8-2), Penn State Nittany Lions (6-4), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4)

Dropped:  Mississippi State Bulldogs [#23], Texas Tech Red Raiders [#24]

Big Ten Report
This will be my last installment, as one division title is set.  I will discuss bowl eligibility in this segment.

LEGENDS Division
1.  Michigan Wolverines (7-3) : Although they have a lower record, they have been more impressive in recent games.  They are bowl eligible and will gain a bowl.  The Big Ten conference has many bowl commitments, and the probation of Ohio State and Penn State will allow every bowl eligible team to play.
2.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) : They don't win impressively, but they do find ways to win.  They are likely Rose Bowl bound, but Wisconsin could get in the way.
3.  Northwestern Wildcats (7-3) : Bowl bound, but they need to find consistency on offense
4.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-4) : Also bowl bound, they need to find consistency, PERIOD.  They seem to get amped up for tough opponents, so their best bowl matchup would be a team with a slightly better record.
5.  Michigan State Spartans (5-5) : They need another victory to be bowl bound.  With games against Northwestern and Minnesota, they may not get it.  Believe it or not, this week's home game against Northwestern, coming off a bye, may be their better change than their last game, a road challenge against Minnesota.
6.  Iowa Hawkeyes (4-6) : Like the Spartans, this team has been a disappointment this season.  Since Purdue upset them, one more loss takes away a bowl game, and they need to play against Michigan and Nebraska.  They'll be home for the post-season, and will finish the season in last place in the Legends division.

LEADERS Division
1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) : Although they could not win the division, they were clearly the best team
2.  Wisconsin Badgers (7-3) : Their dominant performance boosted them over Penn State, and sent them to the Big Ten Championship Game.
3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (6-4) : Their loss to Nebraska dropped them, and their probation takes away their postseason.  They need a strong end to the season to relieve some tensions.
4.  Purdue Boilermakers (4-6) : They upset Iowa to keep their bowl hopes alive (and basically dash Iowa's).  They conclude against Illinois and Indiana, so they could capture a bowl berth.
5.  Indiana Hoosiers (4-6) : They were destroyed by Wisconsin, as their defense was non-existent.  One more loss costs them a bowl berth, and they play Penn State this week.  No post-season for the Hoosiers.
6.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-8) : Where, oh where has the offense gone?  They only managed a field goal against Minnesota.  They won't beat Northwestern, so their only hope for a conference win would be against Purdue this weekend.  Until Purdue upset Iowa, I thought the Illini had a chance.  Now...

Conference/division races
ACC Atlantic:  This title is between Florida State and Clemson, and the Seminoles hold the tiebreaker.  One win and the Seminoles go to the title game.  They play Maryland, so it seems likely they'll clinch it this week.

ACC Coastal:  Losses to Miami and North Carolina opens this division up again.  Virginia Tech is the only team clearly out of the race.  Miami controls their own destiny.  They already beat North Carolina and Georgia Tech, two other contenders.  Their final conference game is against Duke, yet another contender.  Virginia only stands a chance if both Miami and Georgia Tech lose their last conference game.  Ironically, both play Duke for that distinction.  Duke wins the division by beating both of those teams.

Big XII:  Kansas State needs one more victory to win the conference.  They play Baylor this week, and can clinch it by beating them.  They'd want to do that, as they close against tough Texas.  Oklahoma needs the Wildcats to lose both games, as does Texas.

Big East:  Louisville's loss puts Rutgers in the driver's seat.  If they win out, they take the conference title.  However, the Scarlet Knights still need to play both Cincy and Louisville, who are hot on their heels.  If Louisville wins out, they take the title, since they've already beaten Cincy.  Cincy needs to beat Rutgers and hope Rutgers beats Louisville.  Cincy also needs to win out, but with South Florida and UConn remaining, that seems likely.  Clearly this week's contest between Rutgers and Cincy determines Cincy's chances

Big Ten Legends:  Nebraska controls their own destiny, as they hold the tiebreaker over Michigan.  Worse, Michigan still needs to play Ohio State, so they are likely to finish with two conference losses.  Nebraska has Minnesota and Iowa remaining, so two wins seem likely.

Big Ten Leaders:  Wisconsin represents the division in the Big Ten Championship Game

Conference USA East:  UCF wins with one more victory.  That may not happen until they play UTEP, as they face Tulsa this week.  East Carolina needs UCF to lose BOTH games and the Pirates would need to win out.  UCF seems likely, but if Tulsa wins this week, we may need another week to determine the winner.

Conference USA West:  Tulsa has it won, so this week's battle against UCF could be a preview of the conference title game.

MAC East:  Ohio's loss removed them from contention, so it's between Bowling Green and Kent State.  They battle this week, so this game could decide the title.  If Kent State wins, they win the division.  If Bowling Green wins, they hold the tiebreaker, so winning to close the season would give them the title.

MAC West:  Ball State is out of contention.  This one is between Northern Illinois and Toledo, who play this week.  If the Huskies win, they capture the division.  If Toledo wins, and wins the following week, they get the division.

Mountain West:  This could end up a three-way race.  Boise State, San Diego State, and Fresno State each have one loss.  Each are 1-1 against the other two.  San Diego closes against Wyoming, which should be an easy win.  Fresno hosts Air Force in two weeks, and are likely to win.  Boise has two games to play.  If they win out, they will likely capture the title, as they will be highest ranked of the three (the next tiebreaker level).  If they lose to Nevada to end the season, though, Fresno would win the two-way battle between them and San Diego State.

Pac-12 North:  Oregon controls their own destiny.  If they win their last two games, they take the title.  It won't be easy, though.  They face Stanford this week and close with the Civil War against Oregon State, and they have to play in Corvallis.  A Stanford win this week would not only knock out Oregon from the unbeaten ranks, and possibly jeopardize their chances for the BCS title game, but also give them the tiebreaker edge.  If they then beat UCLA, they would capture the division, and likely have to face UCLA again in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  Stanford can also capture the title by beating Oregon and then the Beavers beating the Ducks in the Civil War.  Stanford's win over the Beavers this week removed Oregon State from contention.

Pac-12 South:  USC and UCLA are the only two who can take this title.  The winner of their bout this week wins the division.

SEC East:  Georgia captured that title

SEC West:  Alabama wins it if they beat Auburn in two weeks.  That seems likely.  A&M has a chance, since they upset 'Bama.  They need to beat Missouri in two weeks and hope Auburn can beat Alabama for their ONLY conference win of the season.  Not likely

Sun Belt:  The Ragin Cajuns have been pouring it on recently, but they need both Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee to lose out in order to win.  Since those two still play each other, the Cajuns have no chance.  The Warhakws need Arkansas State to lose both their games AND Middle Tennessee to lose their other two games AND to win out.  This seems unlikely.  No, it appears that the battle between Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee in two weeks will decide this conference.

WAC  Utah State has the advantage.  If they beat Louisiana Tech this week, they win the conference with a closing win against Idaho.  Tech needs to win out, against both Utah State and San Jose State.

NFL 2012 Week 10 picks

I've had big weeks for three weeks in a row, so I'm on a roll.  I am picking slightly less than half of the visiting teams, and several visiting teams won last week, so I'm not too bothered by my proportion.  There are many games that are likely to be close, and could go the other way, so this might end up being a tough week.

Thursday night:  Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The home team has an edge on the Thursday night games this season, but Jacksonville is struggling so much, I can't favor them.  Andrew Luck is improving, and the Colts are again a force in the conference.  COLTS, 24-17

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints:  Believe it or not, the Saints could threaten the Falcons unbeaten season.  After looking confused on offense to start the season, the Saints are starting to put things together.  Their defense still needs work, but that's been true for years.  Offensively, this team is getting dangerous again, and could give the Falcons difficulty.  I'll pick Atlanta, mainly because their first loss SHOULD be an upset, but watch out for New Orleans!  FALCONS, 28-23

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots:  This is NOT one of those close games.  The Pats offense is rolling, and the Bills are playing like they can't figure out what they want to do.  I'm not sure what they WANT either, but what they are GETTING are losses.  PATS, 34-23

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers:  This is another of those potentially dangerous games.  When he is hot, Cam Newton is hard to beat.  However, I wonder if he can keep pace with a functioning Peyton Manning, and he is functioning.  I think Peyton will have a FOURTH consecutive game where he throws three touchdown passes, and I'll award Denver a rushing touchdown as well.  That seems to be too much for Cam Newton and the Panthers offense to overcome.  BRONCOS, 28-23

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings:  The Vikes have the better record, but they have not been playing well recently.  Detroit is improving, and they have the tools to be dangerous.  I'm going for the upset here, but the Vikings might use a divisional game as an opportunity to get it together.  LIONS, 23-20

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals:  The Giants have exposed some weaknesses, but I don't think the Bengals defense will be able to exploit them.  The Bengals have not been consistent, and the Giants defense is capable of (further) confusing them.  GIANTS, 27-17

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens:  The Raiders will surge in the third quarter, but the Ravens will clamp down and solidify their lead in the fourth quarter.  RAVENS, 26-20

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Here's another dangerously close game.  The Bucs defense will stymie the Chargers in the first half, but the Chargers will find traction in the second.  They will close the gap.  If this game goes into overtime, the momentum of the Chargers might give them a victory.  If their comeback starts earlier than I think, they can win in regulation.  However, I'll pick the Bucs, mainly because I think that defense will hold back the comeback long enough.  Also, the NFC has dominated in inter-conference play this season.  BUCS, 24-23

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins:  Jake Locker is likely to play, but he'll start cold.  The Dolphins will start hot, building on the numbers they were posting last week.  The Titans will attempt to engineer a fourth quarter comeback, but they'll come up short.  DOLPHINS, 23-16

Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles:  Both teams are struggling, so the question is who will play less poorly?  If the Eagles can reduce their turnovers, they should win.  I'm not sure they'll do that, though.  This game will change the lead, and a fourth quarter turnover in Eagles territory will allow the Cowboys to gain the winning score.  COWBOYS, 20-17

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks:  The Jets offense is still taking heat, even during their bye week.  They'll take hits on the field this week, as the Seahawks defense will torment them.  We might see Tebow take some snaps, but that won't help them much.  SEAHAWKS, 23-16

St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers:  This is one of the few one-sided games this week, as the 49ers defense will be fierce.  49ERS, 24-13

Sunday night:  Houston Texans at Chicago Bears:  The Bears are favored, but with this morning's announcement that Charles Tillman will not be playing, I wonder how long that will last.  Chicago cannot win without defensive help.  The Texans pass defense will rush and torment Cutler, knowing that is the way to throw him off.  That defensive front will make the running game difficult, despite successes by both Matt Forte and Michael Bush in recent weeks.  The Bears offense will sputter, so they will need turnovers or defensive stops that gives the offense a shorter field.  The Bears defense has been doing that, so I think the Bears could win.  If Tillman's absence reduces the defensive output, though, the Texans will win.  BEARS, 23-21

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers are hot and the Chiefs are not.  This could be the most one-sided game of the week.  STEELERS, 26-13