Most of the playoff spots are set, but many teams are vying for position. Only New Orleans and Dallas can relax, and neither of their owners want them to do so. We'll see what actually happens.
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: DeSean Jackson has publicly cried to leave Tampa, which creates some tension in the locker room. Not that they were likely to win this game, anyway. FALCONS, 24-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: I think some key offensive players will take a break this game, but the Saints defense should push the Panthers enough to win this game. The Panthers have not played well against tough defenses, and the Saints have a good one this season. SAINTS, 20-16
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Despite the opinion of Jerry Jones, I think the Cowboys will rest some players this game, which will be the opening the Giants need to finish with a win. The Giants have found some life since Odell Beckham Jr challenged them after Week 8, and they want to end strong. GIANTS, 23-16
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: The Packers are banged up, but they won't slack off. After all, they have the entire off-season to heal. They don't want to finish with nine losses, so they will fight. When the Pack really wants to win, they'll find a way to do that. PACK, 23-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have a shot at a bye week, so they want this win. They won't rest, figuring a win will help them get an extra week of rest, so the Jags will have their hands full. Deshaun Watson has sparked the Texans offense, and with their stiff defense, this team is definitely a Super Bowl contender, especially since both the Chiefs and Chargers have exposed vulnerabilities in recent weeks. TEXANS, 24-16
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: The big question for the Bills is do you give Josh Allen more playing time, or let him rest his injured body? I'd keep him on the sidelines, as I don't think the Bills will win anyway. At this point, their better move is to improve their draft position and get a good burly offensive lineman. DOLPHINS, 23-13
New York Jets at New England Patriots: The Patriots are also playing for a potential bye week, so they won't rest. Of course, this is a Bill Belichick team -- they don't understand the meaning of "rest" anyway. The Jets will certainly battle. They often do against the Pats, and Sam Darnold has been looking better. PATS, 27-21
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are already in the playoffs, but they want a win to stay in fifth position. They don't want to travel to New Orleans; they'd rather play either the Rams or the Bears. With their defense, that bodes ill for the offensively-challenged Cardinals. SEAHAWKS, 24-13
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the most crucial games of the weekend. The Vikings are playing for a playoff berth. The Bears are playing for a potential first week bye. This one will be a real battle. That's when defense becomes important, and that's the Bears strength this season. BEARS, 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh needs a win and a Ravens loss to win the division. That's the only way they're getting into the playoffs. They can hope Cleveland, with Baker Mayfield at the helm, will surprise Baltimore (see the next game). For their part, Big Ben and the Steelers will pulverize the Bengals to give them a chance. STEELERS, 26-20
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: How important has Baker Mayfield been to this team? They have the potential to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007, Derek Anderson's first season. They have to get past the Ravens to do it, though, and the Ravens want to win to ensure the division title and playoff spot. I think they'll get that win, but the Browns won't make it easy. RAVENS, 26-23
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: What's at stake in the AFC West? The division winner is the top seed in the AFC, the runner-up is the fourth seed. The Chargers want that title, and a win here is required. Defensively, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Offensively, not so much. If Rivers and company do not make any mistakes, they should win this game. CHARGERS, 28-24
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: It's pretty easy for the Chiefs; win, and they are the top AFC seed. That should be sufficient motivation for Patrick Mahomes and company. The Raiders defense is okay but not quick, and the Chiefs are a fast-paced offenses. This should go their way. CHIEFS, 30-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: The Eagles are hoping the Chicago Bears win, giving the Eagles a chance to secure a playoff spot with a win. With Nick Foles generating some magic, they might do that. If the Eagles are already eliminated, they may relax enough to allow Washington to win, but I'm not sure Nick Foles knows how to relax. EAGLES, 24-21
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: The Rams need a win to secure a first week bye, especially if the Bears have already won earlier in the day. The 49ers offense has been getting a bit better recently, but they are yet to win on the road this season, and I think the Rams will continue that streak. RAMS, 30-20
Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The last game of the season determines the last playoff spot in the AFC. While a Texans loss could give the Colts a shot at the division title, it is more likely that this game determines who occupies the sixth AFC seed. The Titans have the defense, the Colts have the offense, and the Titans have a great home record. Marcus Mariota has pledged to do everything he can to play this game, but that might be a mistake. If he rushes his return, he might do himself more harm (see Robert Griffin III). Could Tennessee win without him? Possibly. The Colts seem more stoked for this game, but this one could really go either way. COLTS, 24-23
Thursday, December 27, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Bowl picks III
As I type this, I have lost the last three bowl games, and I am losing the Independence Bowl. That might not be the best omen for typing this post, but I'm doing it anyway!
Sat Dec 29
Cotton Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) v #2 Clemson Tigers (13-0) : I picked Clemson originally, but they are lacking some players due to drug problems. Could that be enough for Notre Dame to win? I'm going to stick with my original pick, but this one could seriously go the other way. CLEMSON
Orange Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #6 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) : The Tide are missing some players due to violations of team rules, but they have such a talented bench that it won't chance things much; it just might make the game a little closer. ALABAMA
Mon Dec 31
Military Bowl: #15 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : It was a disappointing year for the Hokies this year. How they made it to a New Years Eve bowl shows how highly people hold the program; their on-field performance certainly didn't earn it. This should be an easy win for the Bearcats. CINCINNATI
Sun Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (8-4) v Pittsburgh Panthers (7-6) : Pitt won the ACC Coastal division, but their non-conference performance was atrocious. Somehow I see that repeating here. Stanford has a tough year, but their talent is still intact, and they should outplay the Panthers. STANFORD
Santa Clara Bowl: Michigan State Spartans (7-5) v Oregon Ducks (8-4) : The Spartans are often unpredictable, but they will be missing some key players who are skipping this bowl, which makes their attack less potent. For the Ducks, they feel very comfortable with their offense now. It took some time to get their this season, but now their attack is pretty fierce. OREGON
Liberty Bowl: Missouri Tigers (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : Another 6-6 team who should be playing earlier, the Cowboys at least have a bit more going for them than the Hokies. That still won't assure them a victory. MISSOURI
Holiday Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) v Utah Utes (8-4) : Northwestern didn't win a non-conference game, but they didn't have themselves coordinated yet. They just got better as the season wore on. That makes them a serious threat against Utah, who has a wide and diverse playbook. If they can keep Northwestern on their toes, the Utes can win. If Northwestern starts to figure them out, the Wildcats will prevail. UTAH
Gator Bowl: #25 North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) v Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) : NC State had an excellent season, and I see that extending to this bowl game. The Aggies were too inconsistent to count on, while the Wolfpack showed strength. Their defense is potent, and the Aggies tend to fold under stiff pressure. NC STATE
Tues Jan 1
Outback Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) : Both of these teams had strong games, and then would falter badly. Who wins may depend upon which team shows up -- the talented team that often performs, or the bunch of bumblers who sometimes bubble up. For a bowl game, I think both teams will make an effort to show up strong. For Iowa, that's a decent offense that has few turnovers matched with a strong defense. The Aggies aren't too great on defense. Their offense has flashes of brilliance, but they can't always sustain that. IOWA
Fiesta Bowl: #16 LSU Tigers (9-3) v #4 UCF Golden Knights (12-0) : Once again, the playoff committee ignored the Knights. At least this time there were three other unbeaten teams, so the slight isn't so obvious. Still, it's enough to motivate the Golden Knights, who will go out and earn their second "National Co-Champion" designation. UCF
Citrus Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) v #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Despite their record, the Wildcats are not so good. Their offense has holes, their record is padded by playing weak non-conference opponents. Penn State, on the other hand, has strong squads at all phases, including special teams. PENN STATE
Rose Bowl: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) v #22 Washington Huskies (10-3) : Ohio State did not win many games in impressive fashion, but they won every game except one. They start slow, but the second half is theirs to command. The Huskies won the Pac-12, mostly on the strength of their defense. The Buckeyes defense this year is not as strong as usual, but the offense makes dangerous. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl: #18 Texas Longhorns (9-4) v #7 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) : The Big XII winner and SEC winner face off in the Orange Bowl, and their runners-up face off here. Unfortunately for the Big XII Conference, the SEC team is the clear favorite, and this one won't likely be as close as the Orange Bowl. GEORGIA
Sat Dec 29
Cotton Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) v #2 Clemson Tigers (13-0) : I picked Clemson originally, but they are lacking some players due to drug problems. Could that be enough for Notre Dame to win? I'm going to stick with my original pick, but this one could seriously go the other way. CLEMSON
Orange Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #6 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) : The Tide are missing some players due to violations of team rules, but they have such a talented bench that it won't chance things much; it just might make the game a little closer. ALABAMA
Mon Dec 31
Military Bowl: #15 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : It was a disappointing year for the Hokies this year. How they made it to a New Years Eve bowl shows how highly people hold the program; their on-field performance certainly didn't earn it. This should be an easy win for the Bearcats. CINCINNATI
Sun Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (8-4) v Pittsburgh Panthers (7-6) : Pitt won the ACC Coastal division, but their non-conference performance was atrocious. Somehow I see that repeating here. Stanford has a tough year, but their talent is still intact, and they should outplay the Panthers. STANFORD
Santa Clara Bowl: Michigan State Spartans (7-5) v Oregon Ducks (8-4) : The Spartans are often unpredictable, but they will be missing some key players who are skipping this bowl, which makes their attack less potent. For the Ducks, they feel very comfortable with their offense now. It took some time to get their this season, but now their attack is pretty fierce. OREGON
Liberty Bowl: Missouri Tigers (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : Another 6-6 team who should be playing earlier, the Cowboys at least have a bit more going for them than the Hokies. That still won't assure them a victory. MISSOURI
Holiday Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) v Utah Utes (8-4) : Northwestern didn't win a non-conference game, but they didn't have themselves coordinated yet. They just got better as the season wore on. That makes them a serious threat against Utah, who has a wide and diverse playbook. If they can keep Northwestern on their toes, the Utes can win. If Northwestern starts to figure them out, the Wildcats will prevail. UTAH
Gator Bowl: #25 North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) v Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) : NC State had an excellent season, and I see that extending to this bowl game. The Aggies were too inconsistent to count on, while the Wolfpack showed strength. Their defense is potent, and the Aggies tend to fold under stiff pressure. NC STATE
Tues Jan 1
Outback Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) : Both of these teams had strong games, and then would falter badly. Who wins may depend upon which team shows up -- the talented team that often performs, or the bunch of bumblers who sometimes bubble up. For a bowl game, I think both teams will make an effort to show up strong. For Iowa, that's a decent offense that has few turnovers matched with a strong defense. The Aggies aren't too great on defense. Their offense has flashes of brilliance, but they can't always sustain that. IOWA
Fiesta Bowl: #16 LSU Tigers (9-3) v #4 UCF Golden Knights (12-0) : Once again, the playoff committee ignored the Knights. At least this time there were three other unbeaten teams, so the slight isn't so obvious. Still, it's enough to motivate the Golden Knights, who will go out and earn their second "National Co-Champion" designation. UCF
Citrus Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) v #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Despite their record, the Wildcats are not so good. Their offense has holes, their record is padded by playing weak non-conference opponents. Penn State, on the other hand, has strong squads at all phases, including special teams. PENN STATE
Rose Bowl: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) v #22 Washington Huskies (10-3) : Ohio State did not win many games in impressive fashion, but they won every game except one. They start slow, but the second half is theirs to command. The Huskies won the Pac-12, mostly on the strength of their defense. The Buckeyes defense this year is not as strong as usual, but the offense makes dangerous. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl: #18 Texas Longhorns (9-4) v #7 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) : The Big XII winner and SEC winner face off in the Orange Bowl, and their runners-up face off here. Unfortunately for the Big XII Conference, the SEC team is the clear favorite, and this one won't likely be as close as the Orange Bowl. GEORGIA
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
NFL 2018 Week 16 picks
Saturday games
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: The Redskins have the talent to do well, but they seem confused and out of sync on the field. That's precisely the opportunity that the Titans' defense loves to exploit. TITANS, 23-17
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: The Ravens are a strong team that loses close games. This one is likely to be a close game, which gives the edge to the Chargers. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: When Atlanta has it together, they are a tough team. They've had trouble getting it together this season, though. Carolina hasn't been too consistent, either, but they have had better luck getting it together than the Falcons have. PANTHERS, 26-24
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: New England has shown some unusual vulnerabilities this season, but they are still a powerful force in the AFC East. The Bills offense has struggled greatly, which reduces their threat level. PATRIOTS, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: This game is a reflection of opposing directions. The Bengals, commonly a regular season threat, have faltered badly this season. The Browns, normally dwelling near the bottom of the league, has been given new life, thanks greatly to new QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has grown into this job, which encourages me to give them the edge in this game. BROWNS, 28-27
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: The Packers are another traditionally competitive team who is struggling, but the Jets are struggling even more. QB Sam Darnold is learning, but he back-pedals sometimes. His time this game might be best spent observing how Aaron Rodgers operates; perhaps Darnold can pick up some pointers. He won't pick up a win. PACKERS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but they need to win out. The Texans are going to make that a difficult prospect. Between their defense, and excellent play by Deshaun Watson, the Texans are stiff competition. TEXANS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Neither of these teams has been the picture of consistency, but the Jags have a greater history of screwing up at crucial points in a game. Miami at least minimizes the number of serious mistakes they make. DOLPHINS, 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Kirk Cousins may not have proven to be the savior the Vikings hoped, but he has kept things interesting. The Lions remain the chronic underachievers that have defined the Matt Stafford era, so Minnesota should win this one. VIKINGS, 27-20
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts: The Giants loss this past week removes any chance of reaching the playoffs. So what will the Giants do now? If they are smart, they start determining who will be the cornerstone of the team next season, and trying different combinations of players. That will produce some unexpected formations and patterns, which might confuse the Colts, but Indy should still emerge victorious. COLTS, 26-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas wants to remain ahead of the Eagles in the division title hunt. The Texans might help them out, but the Cowboys want to do it on their own. That means they will be itching for a win here. COWBOYS, 30-23
Sunday late games
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: The Bears have won their division, so will they slack off? Not now, thanks to the Rams loss. They have a chance to be the second seed in the NFC, gaining a playoff bye week. They want that position, so they want to keep winning. Although the 49ers have lately been looking better, the Bears defense will ensure this victory. BEARS, 27-17
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: That aforementioned loss puts the Rams in a precarious place for playoff seeding, so they know they need even win they can get. Fortunately, the Cardinals should make that easy. RAMS, 34-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: The Steelers will become big Chargers fans on Saturday, rooting for the Chargers to beat the Ravens. However, if they are hoping to turn that loss into a division title, the Saints will have other ideas. The Saints want the top seed in the NFC, and they need to keep winning in order to do that. SAINTS, 30-24
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: The two best teams in the AFC reside in the same division, and another loss by either gives the title to the other. KC will be rooting for Baltimore. If they don't get their wish, they will have to deal with the Seahawks. Winning in Seattle is not easy, but it is easier than it used to be. CHIEFS, 31-26
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver has had its ups and downs, but this has been a rocky first year for Jay Gruden, so I definitely think the visitors have the advantage. BRONCOS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: The Redskins have the talent to do well, but they seem confused and out of sync on the field. That's precisely the opportunity that the Titans' defense loves to exploit. TITANS, 23-17
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: The Ravens are a strong team that loses close games. This one is likely to be a close game, which gives the edge to the Chargers. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: When Atlanta has it together, they are a tough team. They've had trouble getting it together this season, though. Carolina hasn't been too consistent, either, but they have had better luck getting it together than the Falcons have. PANTHERS, 26-24
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: New England has shown some unusual vulnerabilities this season, but they are still a powerful force in the AFC East. The Bills offense has struggled greatly, which reduces their threat level. PATRIOTS, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: This game is a reflection of opposing directions. The Bengals, commonly a regular season threat, have faltered badly this season. The Browns, normally dwelling near the bottom of the league, has been given new life, thanks greatly to new QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has grown into this job, which encourages me to give them the edge in this game. BROWNS, 28-27
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: The Packers are another traditionally competitive team who is struggling, but the Jets are struggling even more. QB Sam Darnold is learning, but he back-pedals sometimes. His time this game might be best spent observing how Aaron Rodgers operates; perhaps Darnold can pick up some pointers. He won't pick up a win. PACKERS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but they need to win out. The Texans are going to make that a difficult prospect. Between their defense, and excellent play by Deshaun Watson, the Texans are stiff competition. TEXANS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Neither of these teams has been the picture of consistency, but the Jags have a greater history of screwing up at crucial points in a game. Miami at least minimizes the number of serious mistakes they make. DOLPHINS, 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Kirk Cousins may not have proven to be the savior the Vikings hoped, but he has kept things interesting. The Lions remain the chronic underachievers that have defined the Matt Stafford era, so Minnesota should win this one. VIKINGS, 27-20
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts: The Giants loss this past week removes any chance of reaching the playoffs. So what will the Giants do now? If they are smart, they start determining who will be the cornerstone of the team next season, and trying different combinations of players. That will produce some unexpected formations and patterns, which might confuse the Colts, but Indy should still emerge victorious. COLTS, 26-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas wants to remain ahead of the Eagles in the division title hunt. The Texans might help them out, but the Cowboys want to do it on their own. That means they will be itching for a win here. COWBOYS, 30-23
Sunday late games
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: The Bears have won their division, so will they slack off? Not now, thanks to the Rams loss. They have a chance to be the second seed in the NFC, gaining a playoff bye week. They want that position, so they want to keep winning. Although the 49ers have lately been looking better, the Bears defense will ensure this victory. BEARS, 27-17
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: That aforementioned loss puts the Rams in a precarious place for playoff seeding, so they know they need even win they can get. Fortunately, the Cardinals should make that easy. RAMS, 34-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: The Steelers will become big Chargers fans on Saturday, rooting for the Chargers to beat the Ravens. However, if they are hoping to turn that loss into a division title, the Saints will have other ideas. The Saints want the top seed in the NFC, and they need to keep winning in order to do that. SAINTS, 30-24
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: The two best teams in the AFC reside in the same division, and another loss by either gives the title to the other. KC will be rooting for Baltimore. If they don't get their wish, they will have to deal with the Seahawks. Winning in Seattle is not easy, but it is easier than it used to be. CHIEFS, 31-26
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver has had its ups and downs, but this has been a rocky first year for Jay Gruden, so I definitely think the visitors have the advantage. BRONCOS, 28-20
NCAA Football 2018 Bowl picks part II
[Ed note: We are aware that Christmas Eve is Monday, not Sunday. The correction has been made]
We left off with the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the last bowl game on Friday Dec 21st. This column covers the bowl games into Dec 29th, excluding the National Championship semi-final games.
Sat Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis Tigers (8-5) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) : Wake Forest started out the season hot, but they stumbled badly in conference play. So the question is -- which team will show up? The one that went 3-1 in non-conference play, or the team who crumbled under pressure from quality ACC teams? Memphis certainly won't give them an easy time. The Tigers are a strong team, and got stronger as the season rolled on. That momentum should carry them through this bowl game. MEMPHIS
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston Cougars (8-4) v #21 Army Black Knights (10-2) : Here's a battle of two strong teams. Houston has a fast-paced offense while Army's pounding ground game relies on ball control and time of possession, wearing down opposing defenses. This seems a very good matchup, the kind of quality contests that were common in bowl games in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before corporate sponsorships and conference ties forced favoritism. However, the nature of the Armed Forces Bowl brings in the best of the armed forces academies, so Army definitely has the crowd on their side. That might be enough to propel them to win what might be one of the closest contested bowl games. ARMY
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo Bulls (10-3) v Troy Trojans (9-3) : The Bulls lost the MAC title game on a miraculous drive by Northern Illinois. Until then, they had played brilliantly, proving to be the most dominant team in the MAC. Troy is a good team, especially in bowls, but Buffalo is out to prove their worth. Moreover, they have the emotional support of an unbeaten basketball team as well. BUFFALO
Hawai'i Bowl: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-5) at Hawaii Warriors (8-5) : This game is typically on Christmas Eve, but since that is Monday this year, they play early. That won't bother the Warriors, who are devastating at home. A stronger team would prove a challenge, but Louisiana Tech has only been average this season. The only thing that makes the Bulldogs a threat? They play well in bowl games. They won't play well enough here. HAWAII
Wed Dec 26
First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v #11 Boise State Broncos (10-3) : Boise State nearly won the Mountain West title game. This game won't be as close. BOISE STATE
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) : Here's our first game pitting two Power Five conference teams against each other. Georgia Tech overcame a mediocre first half of the season with some stunning play and excellent performances. Minnesota was a powerhouse in non-conference games, but couldn't compete with the quality teams in the Big Ten. Georgia Tech certainly seems, at least on paper, to be the stronger team, but Minnesota's stiffer conference competition, and strong non-conference record, makes them an interesting upset pick. GEORGIA TECH
Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) v TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) : TCU is one of those teams who I often question whether they should be in a bowl. If you remove their FCS game, they allowed more points than they scored. While Cal was not a stellar team, they certainly performed better than that, and should have enough power to knock off TCU. CAL
Thurs Dec 27
Independence Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) v Duke Blue Devils (7-5) : Duke was a colossus in non-conference play, but conference play demolished them. Temple hovered on the outskirts of the Top 25 rankings for the last few weeks of the season, and that team will certainly pester Duke. TEMPLE
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (7-5) v Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) : Based solely on record, these two teams seem evenly matched. That's where record can be deceiving. Miami accumulated a 4-4 ACC record mostly by beating on weaklings. Wisconsin earned a 5-4 record in the Big Ten and played some hard-fought games. Wisconsin is more battle-hardened, and has the better talent than Miami, especially on defense. WISCONSIN
Texas Bowl: Baylor Bears (6-6) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : This is essentially a home game for the Bears. Talk about favorable conditions! Their offense was weaker than usual, but it's still better than what Vanderbilt will engineer. BAYLOR
Fri Dec 28
Music City Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Auburn Tigers (7-5) : Purdue's upset of Ohio State juvenated them, and they finished strongly. Auburn started strongly, but proved to be lacking against SEC opponents. Purdue stands a real chance to win this game, but Auburn can be determined, especially when representing the SEC. AUBURN
Camping World Bowl: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) v #24 Syracuse Orange (9-3) : By the time this battle of ranked teams occurs, some of the luster may have fallen from Syracuse, as their basketball team is struggling. That doesn't take anything away from what the football accomplished this year. They'd like to culminate that year with a bowl victory, but that may not happen. West Virginia is a strong team who gave a tough battle to Oklahoma. They'll give an equally tough job to Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA
Alamo Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) v #12 Washington State Cougars (10-2) : Washington State was the lone bright spot among the Pac-12, and might be their best chance for a bowl win. Iowa State surprised some Big XII opponents, but they knew those opponents. I don't see Iowa State surprising Washington State. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Dec 29
Peach Bowl: #20 Florida Gators (9-3) v #8 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) : Michigan couldn't overcome their bitter rival, but Michigan has rolled over everyone else since losing a close game to Notre Dame to start the season. While Michigan traditionally has a poor bowl record, I think the Wolverines will win this one. MICHIGAN
Belk Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) v Virginia Cavaliers (7-5) : Virginia is another school who has allowed more points than scored. South Carolina was dominant in their non-conference games, and I see that continuing here. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4) v Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) : It would be nice for Arkansas State to win this game, and close out a successful bowl season for the Sun Belt Conference. However, I think Nevada is just a bit more talented. Arkansas State has a decent bowl history, though, and could pull this one out. NEVADA
We left off with the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the last bowl game on Friday Dec 21st. This column covers the bowl games into Dec 29th, excluding the National Championship semi-final games.
Sat Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis Tigers (8-5) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) : Wake Forest started out the season hot, but they stumbled badly in conference play. So the question is -- which team will show up? The one that went 3-1 in non-conference play, or the team who crumbled under pressure from quality ACC teams? Memphis certainly won't give them an easy time. The Tigers are a strong team, and got stronger as the season rolled on. That momentum should carry them through this bowl game. MEMPHIS
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston Cougars (8-4) v #21 Army Black Knights (10-2) : Here's a battle of two strong teams. Houston has a fast-paced offense while Army's pounding ground game relies on ball control and time of possession, wearing down opposing defenses. This seems a very good matchup, the kind of quality contests that were common in bowl games in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before corporate sponsorships and conference ties forced favoritism. However, the nature of the Armed Forces Bowl brings in the best of the armed forces academies, so Army definitely has the crowd on their side. That might be enough to propel them to win what might be one of the closest contested bowl games. ARMY
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo Bulls (10-3) v Troy Trojans (9-3) : The Bulls lost the MAC title game on a miraculous drive by Northern Illinois. Until then, they had played brilliantly, proving to be the most dominant team in the MAC. Troy is a good team, especially in bowls, but Buffalo is out to prove their worth. Moreover, they have the emotional support of an unbeaten basketball team as well. BUFFALO
Hawai'i Bowl: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-5) at Hawaii Warriors (8-5) : This game is typically on Christmas Eve, but since that is Monday this year, they play early. That won't bother the Warriors, who are devastating at home. A stronger team would prove a challenge, but Louisiana Tech has only been average this season. The only thing that makes the Bulldogs a threat? They play well in bowl games. They won't play well enough here. HAWAII
Wed Dec 26
First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v #11 Boise State Broncos (10-3) : Boise State nearly won the Mountain West title game. This game won't be as close. BOISE STATE
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) : Here's our first game pitting two Power Five conference teams against each other. Georgia Tech overcame a mediocre first half of the season with some stunning play and excellent performances. Minnesota was a powerhouse in non-conference games, but couldn't compete with the quality teams in the Big Ten. Georgia Tech certainly seems, at least on paper, to be the stronger team, but Minnesota's stiffer conference competition, and strong non-conference record, makes them an interesting upset pick. GEORGIA TECH
Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) v TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) : TCU is one of those teams who I often question whether they should be in a bowl. If you remove their FCS game, they allowed more points than they scored. While Cal was not a stellar team, they certainly performed better than that, and should have enough power to knock off TCU. CAL
Thurs Dec 27
Independence Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) v Duke Blue Devils (7-5) : Duke was a colossus in non-conference play, but conference play demolished them. Temple hovered on the outskirts of the Top 25 rankings for the last few weeks of the season, and that team will certainly pester Duke. TEMPLE
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (7-5) v Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) : Based solely on record, these two teams seem evenly matched. That's where record can be deceiving. Miami accumulated a 4-4 ACC record mostly by beating on weaklings. Wisconsin earned a 5-4 record in the Big Ten and played some hard-fought games. Wisconsin is more battle-hardened, and has the better talent than Miami, especially on defense. WISCONSIN
Texas Bowl: Baylor Bears (6-6) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : This is essentially a home game for the Bears. Talk about favorable conditions! Their offense was weaker than usual, but it's still better than what Vanderbilt will engineer. BAYLOR
Fri Dec 28
Music City Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Auburn Tigers (7-5) : Purdue's upset of Ohio State juvenated them, and they finished strongly. Auburn started strongly, but proved to be lacking against SEC opponents. Purdue stands a real chance to win this game, but Auburn can be determined, especially when representing the SEC. AUBURN
Camping World Bowl: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) v #24 Syracuse Orange (9-3) : By the time this battle of ranked teams occurs, some of the luster may have fallen from Syracuse, as their basketball team is struggling. That doesn't take anything away from what the football accomplished this year. They'd like to culminate that year with a bowl victory, but that may not happen. West Virginia is a strong team who gave a tough battle to Oklahoma. They'll give an equally tough job to Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA
Alamo Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) v #12 Washington State Cougars (10-2) : Washington State was the lone bright spot among the Pac-12, and might be their best chance for a bowl win. Iowa State surprised some Big XII opponents, but they knew those opponents. I don't see Iowa State surprising Washington State. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Dec 29
Peach Bowl: #20 Florida Gators (9-3) v #8 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) : Michigan couldn't overcome their bitter rival, but Michigan has rolled over everyone else since losing a close game to Notre Dame to start the season. While Michigan traditionally has a poor bowl record, I think the Wolverines will win this one. MICHIGAN
Belk Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) v Virginia Cavaliers (7-5) : Virginia is another school who has allowed more points than scored. South Carolina was dominant in their non-conference games, and I see that continuing here. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4) v Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) : It would be nice for Arkansas State to win this game, and close out a successful bowl season for the Sun Belt Conference. However, I think Nevada is just a bit more talented. Arkansas State has a decent bowl history, though, and could pull this one out. NEVADA
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
NCAA Football Final Top 25 and Bowl picks
Here is the final regular season Top 25, including the results of the Army-Navy game:
Top 25 [Last week's/last published position(s)]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [1/1]
2. Clemson Tigers (13-0) [2/2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3/3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-0) [4/4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [5/6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) [6/7]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [7/5]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [8/8]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [9/9]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) [10/10]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11/11]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [12/12]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [13/13]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) [14/14]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [15/15]
16. LSU Tigers (9-3) [16/17]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [17/18]
18. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [18/16]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [19/19]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [20/20]
21. Army Black Knights (10-2) [22/21]
22. Washington Huskies (10-3) [21/22]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [23/23]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [24/24]
25. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) [25/NR]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#25]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-5), UAB Blazers (10-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
Now let's look at the bowls. All bowl eligible teams from Power Five conferences made it, and only 6-5 Southern Miss was excluded who I think should have been included. We have a total of 39 bowl games, but I won't split them exactly into thirds; I'll cover only the first 11 in this column. We'll see only one team from a Power Five conference in this batch, but four conference winners (MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Conference USA), adding insult to the lack of respect given to Group of Five teams. I hope some of them demolish their opponents, and some of the Power Five v Group of Five games go to the underdog.
Sat Dec 15
Cure Bowl: Tulane Green Wave (6-6) v Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-6) : Neither team has an extensive bowl history, although Tulane is certainly more used to spotlight games. Louisiana was impressive. Four of their six losses were to ranked teams (Alabama, Mississippi State, and twice to Appalachian State). This team is overlooked but very strong, and that should prove more than Tulane was expecting. LOUISIANA
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas Mean Green (9-3) v #13 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : Definitely a matchup deserving a later time, this one is likely to lean heavily to the Aggies. Not just for their strong offense, not just for their Top 25 ranking, but because North Texas has an atrocious 2-7 bowl record. UTAH STATE
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) v #10 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) : Arizona State and Wisconsin are probably the two best 7-5 teams out there, yet the Sun Devils are not likely to demonstrate it in this game. Mountain West champs Fresno State have an explosive offense. They proved they can battle defensively, too, as shown by the Mountain West Championship. With their only losses to Minnesota and Boise State (and they avenged that loss in the aforementioned Mountain West Championship), Fresno State should bring a second bowl win the Mountain West conference. FRESNO STATE
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (9-3) v Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) : The battle of the Eagles, but only one will soar. This is only the third bowl game for Eastern Michigan. This is the second consecutive bowl for frequent FCS champ Georgia Southern, and they won their first one. They know how to handle these big games. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) v #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) : Big Sky champ Appalachian State gets a maintain their perfect bowl record and rack up a third win for the Big Sky Conference with a devastating win over Middle Tennessee. That will also start Conference USA at 0-3. APPALACHIAN STATE
Tues Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl: UAB Blazers (10-3) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) : It's a showdown of two conference champs (DEFINITELY should have been later in the bowl season) as the surprise MAC winner faces the Conference USA champion Blazers. UAB has not won a bowl game, but they should break that streak this year. While Northern Illinois can be tough in bowl games, UAB just has too many weapons to lose this game. UAB
Wed Dec 19
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) v Ohio Bobcats (8-4) : San Diego has the better bowl record, and the better non-conference record this season, but I like Ohio's chances. The Bobcats come in on the strength of a winning streak, while the Aztecs lost their last three games. That's not a good way to enter in the bowls. OHIO
Thurs Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) at South Florida Bulls (7-5) : Man, Conference USA really got the short end of things in bowl matchups. This game might have found them favored over a struggling South Florida, except this is practically a home game for the Bulls. That can't be good for Marshall. SOUTH FLORIDA
Fri Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Florida International certainly has the better team, but will that team win? Toledo is a rare MAC team that has a winning bowl record, and they've gone to many of them. This one could be the closest bowl game of all, and could go either way. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) v BYU Cougars (6-6) : Another pick for the underdog. It's not just that Western Michigan has a horrible bowl record, but it's also because they have allowed more points against FBS team than they have scored. A team struggling like that probably shouldn't be playing in a bowl game, but definitely shouldn't win. BYU
Top 25 [Last week's/last published position(s)]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [1/1]
2. Clemson Tigers (13-0) [2/2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3/3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-0) [4/4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [5/6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) [6/7]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [7/5]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [8/8]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [9/9]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) [10/10]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11/11]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [12/12]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [13/13]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) [14/14]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [15/15]
16. LSU Tigers (9-3) [16/17]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [17/18]
18. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [18/16]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [19/19]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [20/20]
21. Army Black Knights (10-2) [22/21]
22. Washington Huskies (10-3) [21/22]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [23/23]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [24/24]
25. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) [25/NR]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#25]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-5), UAB Blazers (10-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
Now let's look at the bowls. All bowl eligible teams from Power Five conferences made it, and only 6-5 Southern Miss was excluded who I think should have been included. We have a total of 39 bowl games, but I won't split them exactly into thirds; I'll cover only the first 11 in this column. We'll see only one team from a Power Five conference in this batch, but four conference winners (MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Conference USA), adding insult to the lack of respect given to Group of Five teams. I hope some of them demolish their opponents, and some of the Power Five v Group of Five games go to the underdog.
Sat Dec 15
Cure Bowl: Tulane Green Wave (6-6) v Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-6) : Neither team has an extensive bowl history, although Tulane is certainly more used to spotlight games. Louisiana was impressive. Four of their six losses were to ranked teams (Alabama, Mississippi State, and twice to Appalachian State). This team is overlooked but very strong, and that should prove more than Tulane was expecting. LOUISIANA
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas Mean Green (9-3) v #13 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : Definitely a matchup deserving a later time, this one is likely to lean heavily to the Aggies. Not just for their strong offense, not just for their Top 25 ranking, but because North Texas has an atrocious 2-7 bowl record. UTAH STATE
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) v #10 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) : Arizona State and Wisconsin are probably the two best 7-5 teams out there, yet the Sun Devils are not likely to demonstrate it in this game. Mountain West champs Fresno State have an explosive offense. They proved they can battle defensively, too, as shown by the Mountain West Championship. With their only losses to Minnesota and Boise State (and they avenged that loss in the aforementioned Mountain West Championship), Fresno State should bring a second bowl win the Mountain West conference. FRESNO STATE
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (9-3) v Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) : The battle of the Eagles, but only one will soar. This is only the third bowl game for Eastern Michigan. This is the second consecutive bowl for frequent FCS champ Georgia Southern, and they won their first one. They know how to handle these big games. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) v #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) : Big Sky champ Appalachian State gets a maintain their perfect bowl record and rack up a third win for the Big Sky Conference with a devastating win over Middle Tennessee. That will also start Conference USA at 0-3. APPALACHIAN STATE
Tues Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl: UAB Blazers (10-3) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) : It's a showdown of two conference champs (DEFINITELY should have been later in the bowl season) as the surprise MAC winner faces the Conference USA champion Blazers. UAB has not won a bowl game, but they should break that streak this year. While Northern Illinois can be tough in bowl games, UAB just has too many weapons to lose this game. UAB
Wed Dec 19
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) v Ohio Bobcats (8-4) : San Diego has the better bowl record, and the better non-conference record this season, but I like Ohio's chances. The Bobcats come in on the strength of a winning streak, while the Aztecs lost their last three games. That's not a good way to enter in the bowls. OHIO
Thurs Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) at South Florida Bulls (7-5) : Man, Conference USA really got the short end of things in bowl matchups. This game might have found them favored over a struggling South Florida, except this is practically a home game for the Bulls. That can't be good for Marshall. SOUTH FLORIDA
Fri Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Florida International certainly has the better team, but will that team win? Toledo is a rare MAC team that has a winning bowl record, and they've gone to many of them. This one could be the closest bowl game of all, and could go either way. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) v BYU Cougars (6-6) : Another pick for the underdog. It's not just that Western Michigan has a horrible bowl record, but it's also because they have allowed more points against FBS team than they have scored. A team struggling like that probably shouldn't be playing in a bowl game, but definitely shouldn't win. BYU
Sunday, November 25, 2018
NCAA Football Week 13 Top 25 and Conference Championships
We had an interesting rivalry weekend, where the underdog won most games between ranked teams. Several games between ranked and unranked teams ended up with the underdog winning, too, which is an interesting lead-in to the conference championships.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (12-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (11-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) [7]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [8]
7. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) [6]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [4]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [13]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2) [14]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [15]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [8]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [11]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (9-3) [16]
17. LSU Tigers (9-3) [10]
18. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [12]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [20]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [22]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [21]
22. Washington Huskies (9-3) [23]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [24]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [25]
25. Buffalo Bulls (10-2) [NR]
Dropped off: UAB Blazers [#19]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-4), Utah Utes (9-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
I will go over the conference championship games in order they will be played.
MAC Championship: #25 Buffalo Bills v Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies are always dangerous, as they have been here many times, but I really like the Bulls. Buffalo has the best offense in the conference, but Northern Illinois has the best defense. The Huskies are great at causing turnovers, and then making the most of those turnovers. If Buffalo can prevent making mistakes, this conference title will be theirs. BUFFALO
Pac-12 Championship: Utah Utes v #22 Washington Huskies: Utah comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, and an offense that has been improving as the season progressed. For Washington, defense has been a stronger focus than offense, and that defense stymied the best offense in the conference last week (although the snow may have helped). Despite the preference for a fancy and quick offense, a well-played defense is crucial in title games, and Washington plays defense very well. Utah has the tools to win this game, but I have to favor the Apple Bowl champs. WASHINGTON
Big XII: #16 Texas Longhorns v #7 Oklahoma Sooners: The Big XII Conference wanted a faux conference championship, thinking they needed an additional game to impress the playoff selection committee. That might bite them in the butt here. Texas has already beaten Oklahoma once at a neutral site, and that was before Texas had fully gotten their offense coordinated. They are even more deadly now. What's worse is Oklahoma's defense, which has faltered in the last month. Over this time, their opponents have averaged 47 points per game. Yes, Oklahoma won those games, but only in the case of Kansas did they win by more than 3 points. Texas has the ability and talent to upset the Sooners, and I think they will. That will cause the Sooners, and the Big XII's, playoff chances to evaporate. So much for the philosophy of a conference championship. TEXAS
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers: Talk about strong defenses, that's the Mountaineers. Louisiana got past perennial winner Arkansas State to reach the conference championship, but getting past Appalachian State will be too much. APPALACHIAN STATE
Conference USA: UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: UAB is one of the few conference championship teams coming into the game on a loss. In fact, they've lost two in a row. Worse, the team who just beat them is this same Blue Raiders team, and they handily destroyed them. UAB will spend this week examining that game, so they may be more competitive, but I fear another loss in the works here. The Raiders have really improved their offense in the past few weeks, and that offense shredded the Blazers last week. I don't see much changing in the rematch. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
American Athletic: Memphis Tigers at #4 UCF Golden Knights: I'm sure Memphis would like the chance to finally end UCF's winning streak, but I don't see it. Yes, they beat Houston last week, but Houston's defense had been faltering for a few weeks. UCF is strong, sturdy, and seemingly indestructible. UCF
SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Many of the national analysts are looking at a potential Georgia upset. That's because the SEC favoritism spurs them to want another Georgia v Alabama national championship. Ain't gonna happen. No discredit to Georgia, but they don't match up as well. Alabama had some struggles last year, especially with injuries. This year, they have the toughest defense in the SEC (although Mississippi State comes close) and the best offense BY FAR. No other team in the SEC comes within 100 points and 75 yards per game than Alabama. And after engineering two masterful second half performances in a row the past two weeks, this team knows they can accomplish anything, so nothing Georgia does will slow them or discourage them. ALABAMA
Mountain West: #10 Fresno State Bulldogs at #11 Boise State Broncos: Boise State earned their spot in this game by slowing the best offense in the country. That shows the strength of their defense. The only defense better in the conference? Their opponent in this game. Fresno State is potent, allowing only one team to score more than 20 points against them. That team was Boise State. This game will be close, and the lead will switch, but I think Fresno State will have learned about the Broncos from their last game, and come better prepared. FRESNO STATE
ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers v Pittsburgh Panthers: This one has the makings to be the most one-sided conference championship of them all, even more than the Sun Belt. CLEMSON
Big Ten: Northwestern Wilcats v #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: Northwestern got here by winning some incredible close games, and causing some turnovers at key moments. Okay, the turnover part might be a concern for Ohio State, but as far as close games? Ohio State has had only three, and won them all. I don't see Northwestern winning this game. OHIO STATE
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (12-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (11-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) [7]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [8]
7. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) [6]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [4]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [13]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2) [14]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [15]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [8]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [11]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (9-3) [16]
17. LSU Tigers (9-3) [10]
18. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [12]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [20]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [22]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [21]
22. Washington Huskies (9-3) [23]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [24]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [25]
25. Buffalo Bulls (10-2) [NR]
Dropped off: UAB Blazers [#19]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-4), Utah Utes (9-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
I will go over the conference championship games in order they will be played.
MAC Championship: #25 Buffalo Bills v Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies are always dangerous, as they have been here many times, but I really like the Bulls. Buffalo has the best offense in the conference, but Northern Illinois has the best defense. The Huskies are great at causing turnovers, and then making the most of those turnovers. If Buffalo can prevent making mistakes, this conference title will be theirs. BUFFALO
Pac-12 Championship: Utah Utes v #22 Washington Huskies: Utah comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, and an offense that has been improving as the season progressed. For Washington, defense has been a stronger focus than offense, and that defense stymied the best offense in the conference last week (although the snow may have helped). Despite the preference for a fancy and quick offense, a well-played defense is crucial in title games, and Washington plays defense very well. Utah has the tools to win this game, but I have to favor the Apple Bowl champs. WASHINGTON
Big XII: #16 Texas Longhorns v #7 Oklahoma Sooners: The Big XII Conference wanted a faux conference championship, thinking they needed an additional game to impress the playoff selection committee. That might bite them in the butt here. Texas has already beaten Oklahoma once at a neutral site, and that was before Texas had fully gotten their offense coordinated. They are even more deadly now. What's worse is Oklahoma's defense, which has faltered in the last month. Over this time, their opponents have averaged 47 points per game. Yes, Oklahoma won those games, but only in the case of Kansas did they win by more than 3 points. Texas has the ability and talent to upset the Sooners, and I think they will. That will cause the Sooners, and the Big XII's, playoff chances to evaporate. So much for the philosophy of a conference championship. TEXAS
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers: Talk about strong defenses, that's the Mountaineers. Louisiana got past perennial winner Arkansas State to reach the conference championship, but getting past Appalachian State will be too much. APPALACHIAN STATE
Conference USA: UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: UAB is one of the few conference championship teams coming into the game on a loss. In fact, they've lost two in a row. Worse, the team who just beat them is this same Blue Raiders team, and they handily destroyed them. UAB will spend this week examining that game, so they may be more competitive, but I fear another loss in the works here. The Raiders have really improved their offense in the past few weeks, and that offense shredded the Blazers last week. I don't see much changing in the rematch. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
American Athletic: Memphis Tigers at #4 UCF Golden Knights: I'm sure Memphis would like the chance to finally end UCF's winning streak, but I don't see it. Yes, they beat Houston last week, but Houston's defense had been faltering for a few weeks. UCF is strong, sturdy, and seemingly indestructible. UCF
SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Many of the national analysts are looking at a potential Georgia upset. That's because the SEC favoritism spurs them to want another Georgia v Alabama national championship. Ain't gonna happen. No discredit to Georgia, but they don't match up as well. Alabama had some struggles last year, especially with injuries. This year, they have the toughest defense in the SEC (although Mississippi State comes close) and the best offense BY FAR. No other team in the SEC comes within 100 points and 75 yards per game than Alabama. And after engineering two masterful second half performances in a row the past two weeks, this team knows they can accomplish anything, so nothing Georgia does will slow them or discourage them. ALABAMA
Mountain West: #10 Fresno State Bulldogs at #11 Boise State Broncos: Boise State earned their spot in this game by slowing the best offense in the country. That shows the strength of their defense. The only defense better in the conference? Their opponent in this game. Fresno State is potent, allowing only one team to score more than 20 points against them. That team was Boise State. This game will be close, and the lead will switch, but I think Fresno State will have learned about the Broncos from their last game, and come better prepared. FRESNO STATE
ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers v Pittsburgh Panthers: This one has the makings to be the most one-sided conference championship of them all, even more than the Sun Belt. CLEMSON
Big Ten: Northwestern Wilcats v #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: Northwestern got here by winning some incredible close games, and causing some turnovers at key moments. Okay, the turnover part might be a concern for Ohio State, but as far as close games? Ohio State has had only three, and won them all. I don't see Northwestern winning this game. OHIO STATE
Thursday, November 22, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 13 picks
Thurs Nov 22
#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels: For the first time in a long time, the Texas Longhorns do not play on Thanksgiving Day. Instead the Mississippi state rivalry takes center stage, and the Rebels act like a few of their roles are played by stand-ins. To say it has been a disappointing conference season for the 1-6 Rebels would be an understatement. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Fri Nov 23
#16 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: The Longhorns don't have a shot at the conference title, but a win here closes out a great season. TEXAS
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes: The Cornhuskers have won four of their last five games, including the baseball-style score of 9-6 against Michigan State last week. However, to beat Iowa on their home field requires a bit more moxie than Nebraska has shown. They may make this one closer than Hawkeye fans would like, though. IOWA
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers: This game determines the American Athletic West winner and UCF's opponent in the conference championship game. Houston has definitely looked better recently, but Memphis started the season strong. Momentum seems to favor the Cougars. HOUSTON
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons: The Bulls might rest some players to keep them healthy for the MAC Championship, but they should be able to beat struggling Bowling Green. BUFFALO
East Carolina Pirates at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: The usually fierce Pirates defense has no ammo this season. CINCINNATI
#5 UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls vaulted defense is empty this season, so UCF should be able to score practically at will this game. UCF
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 West Virginia Mountaineers: This game decides the regular season winner of the conference (since the "Big XII Championship Game" is just for show). West Virginia is still a threat, especially on defense, but that Oklahoma offense is a monster. Unless the Mountaineers score on a couple of turnovers, the Sooners should win this. OKLAHOMA
#23 Washington Huskies at #8 Washington State Cougars: This in-state rivalry determines the Pac-12 North. It features the best offense in the conference against the best defense in the conference. Defense often wins those bouts, so Washington will be dangerous, but the Cougars keep finding ways to win. I think Washington will lead late in the fourth, but the Cougars will barely pull this one out. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Nov 24
Top 25
Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Auburn has not had a great year, but the temptation to win the Iron Bowl will motivate the guys. Unfortunately, motivation alone will not be enough to halt the behemoth that is the Tide. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Clemson Tigers: Clemson will likely have an even easier time against South Carolina than Alabama will in the Iron Bowl. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Trojans play tough in the Rose Bowl, but I don't see how the Irish will lose this game. Playoffs, here you come! NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: Wow, it is really hard to pick the Buckeyes to lose at home in the Big Game, but they have just seemed to play a bit "off" in recent weeks. Unless they have been looking ahead to this game and not concentrating on their other opponents, the Wolverines definitely seem like the stronger team. Never count out the Buckeyes in the Big Game, especially in the Horseshoe, but I have to favor Michigan to win their first division title ever. MICHIGAN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Like Alabama and Clemson, this should be an easy victory. GEORGIA
#10 LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although you can never count out the Aggies, this year's squad has allowed more points to SEC opponents than they've scored. That's not a good sign. LSU
#11 Utah State Aggies at #15 Boise State Broncos: A contest with some teeth in it! Not only will it decide the Mountain division title (and the front-runner to win the Mountain West Championship), but it pits two of the most exciting offenses against each other. This game should exceed 100 points, with Utah State coming out on top by a single score (or less). UTAH STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions: The Terrapins may have exhausted themselves against Ohio State last week. If they still have some gas, they can scare the Lions, but I think Penn State gets them at the right time. PENN STATE
San Jose State Spartans at #14 Fresno State Bulldogs: It's Bulldog filled weekend, and so far the Dawgs are out, and winning. FRESNO STATE
Troy Trojans at #17 Appalachian State Mountaineers: This game decides the Sun Belt East, and pits the two best defenses against each other. In a defensive battle it can be anyone's game, but I favor the home team here. APPALACHIAN STATE
#19 UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is a strong team, and if UAB takes a breather to prepare for the Conference USA Championship, they could lose here. I don't think they will, as a Middle Tennessee win could potentially put the Raiders into the Championship, and I don't think UAB wants to face them two weeks in a row. UAB
#22 Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles: This in-state rivalry should easily go to the visitors. FLORIDA
#25 Syracuse Orange at Boston College Eagles: The Orange need a strong game to bounce back from the atrocious performance against Notre Dame. The Eagles could give them a challenge, but I think the Orange will prevail. SYRACUSE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats could rest some guys in preparation of the battle they would expect next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the rivalry between these two schools will likely prevent anyone from wanting to sit this one out. That spells doom for the Illini. NORTHWESTERN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans: Could Rutgers win their first conference game in the last week of the season? That would make a great movie, but this is real life. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana has played some teams tough, but they just can't seem to close most games. I think they'll have the same problem here, as they might lead at the end of the third quarter, but Purdue will come out swinging at the end. PURDUE
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: Would you believe Wisconsin has been to more Big Ten Championship Games than any other team (5 out of 7)? They won't be there this year, but they will end their season with a win. WISCONSIN
Other Games of Interest
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Panthers need the win to ensure a division title, regardless of how Middle Tennessee plays UAB. Marshall can be a tough opponent, so that won't be easy, but I think the home team will squeak this one out. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Temple Owls at UConn Huskies: Not much of a challenge here, as UConn hasn't won a single American Athletic game all season. TEMPLE
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners: The Roadrunners have the worst offense in Conference USA, and their defense isn't much better. No contest. NORTH TEXAS
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: The Battle for Utah should go to the Utes, although don't expect BYU to roll over. UTAH
#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels: For the first time in a long time, the Texas Longhorns do not play on Thanksgiving Day. Instead the Mississippi state rivalry takes center stage, and the Rebels act like a few of their roles are played by stand-ins. To say it has been a disappointing conference season for the 1-6 Rebels would be an understatement. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Fri Nov 23
#16 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: The Longhorns don't have a shot at the conference title, but a win here closes out a great season. TEXAS
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes: The Cornhuskers have won four of their last five games, including the baseball-style score of 9-6 against Michigan State last week. However, to beat Iowa on their home field requires a bit more moxie than Nebraska has shown. They may make this one closer than Hawkeye fans would like, though. IOWA
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers: This game determines the American Athletic West winner and UCF's opponent in the conference championship game. Houston has definitely looked better recently, but Memphis started the season strong. Momentum seems to favor the Cougars. HOUSTON
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons: The Bulls might rest some players to keep them healthy for the MAC Championship, but they should be able to beat struggling Bowling Green. BUFFALO
East Carolina Pirates at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: The usually fierce Pirates defense has no ammo this season. CINCINNATI
#5 UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls vaulted defense is empty this season, so UCF should be able to score practically at will this game. UCF
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 West Virginia Mountaineers: This game decides the regular season winner of the conference (since the "Big XII Championship Game" is just for show). West Virginia is still a threat, especially on defense, but that Oklahoma offense is a monster. Unless the Mountaineers score on a couple of turnovers, the Sooners should win this. OKLAHOMA
#23 Washington Huskies at #8 Washington State Cougars: This in-state rivalry determines the Pac-12 North. It features the best offense in the conference against the best defense in the conference. Defense often wins those bouts, so Washington will be dangerous, but the Cougars keep finding ways to win. I think Washington will lead late in the fourth, but the Cougars will barely pull this one out. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Nov 24
Top 25
Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Auburn has not had a great year, but the temptation to win the Iron Bowl will motivate the guys. Unfortunately, motivation alone will not be enough to halt the behemoth that is the Tide. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Clemson Tigers: Clemson will likely have an even easier time against South Carolina than Alabama will in the Iron Bowl. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Trojans play tough in the Rose Bowl, but I don't see how the Irish will lose this game. Playoffs, here you come! NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: Wow, it is really hard to pick the Buckeyes to lose at home in the Big Game, but they have just seemed to play a bit "off" in recent weeks. Unless they have been looking ahead to this game and not concentrating on their other opponents, the Wolverines definitely seem like the stronger team. Never count out the Buckeyes in the Big Game, especially in the Horseshoe, but I have to favor Michigan to win their first division title ever. MICHIGAN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Like Alabama and Clemson, this should be an easy victory. GEORGIA
#10 LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although you can never count out the Aggies, this year's squad has allowed more points to SEC opponents than they've scored. That's not a good sign. LSU
#11 Utah State Aggies at #15 Boise State Broncos: A contest with some teeth in it! Not only will it decide the Mountain division title (and the front-runner to win the Mountain West Championship), but it pits two of the most exciting offenses against each other. This game should exceed 100 points, with Utah State coming out on top by a single score (or less). UTAH STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions: The Terrapins may have exhausted themselves against Ohio State last week. If they still have some gas, they can scare the Lions, but I think Penn State gets them at the right time. PENN STATE
San Jose State Spartans at #14 Fresno State Bulldogs: It's Bulldog filled weekend, and so far the Dawgs are out, and winning. FRESNO STATE
Troy Trojans at #17 Appalachian State Mountaineers: This game decides the Sun Belt East, and pits the two best defenses against each other. In a defensive battle it can be anyone's game, but I favor the home team here. APPALACHIAN STATE
#19 UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is a strong team, and if UAB takes a breather to prepare for the Conference USA Championship, they could lose here. I don't think they will, as a Middle Tennessee win could potentially put the Raiders into the Championship, and I don't think UAB wants to face them two weeks in a row. UAB
#22 Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles: This in-state rivalry should easily go to the visitors. FLORIDA
#25 Syracuse Orange at Boston College Eagles: The Orange need a strong game to bounce back from the atrocious performance against Notre Dame. The Eagles could give them a challenge, but I think the Orange will prevail. SYRACUSE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats could rest some guys in preparation of the battle they would expect next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the rivalry between these two schools will likely prevent anyone from wanting to sit this one out. That spells doom for the Illini. NORTHWESTERN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans: Could Rutgers win their first conference game in the last week of the season? That would make a great movie, but this is real life. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana has played some teams tough, but they just can't seem to close most games. I think they'll have the same problem here, as they might lead at the end of the third quarter, but Purdue will come out swinging at the end. PURDUE
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: Would you believe Wisconsin has been to more Big Ten Championship Games than any other team (5 out of 7)? They won't be there this year, but they will end their season with a win. WISCONSIN
Other Games of Interest
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Panthers need the win to ensure a division title, regardless of how Middle Tennessee plays UAB. Marshall can be a tough opponent, so that won't be easy, but I think the home team will squeak this one out. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Temple Owls at UConn Huskies: Not much of a challenge here, as UConn hasn't won a single American Athletic game all season. TEMPLE
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners: The Roadrunners have the worst offense in Conference USA, and their defense isn't much better. No contest. NORTH TEXAS
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: The Battle for Utah should go to the Utes, although don't expect BYU to roll over. UTAH
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
NFL 2018 Week 12 picks
It's Thanksgiving week, and the NFL gives us a feast of games on Turkey Day. This year, we get a trio of divisional contests, a situation rarely seen on Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is treating a sore shoulder, but the Bears won't need him in top shape to overwhelm the Lions. They just need to have their defense pressure fragile Lions QB Matthew Stafford. A couple of interceptions and several drop balls will plague the Lions offense and ensure a Bears win. BEARS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: With Alex Smith gone for the season, the Redskins bring in journeyman Colt McCoy (a native Texan) to battle the Cowboys. Nice try, but the infusion of hometown blood won't help the Redskins escape Dallas with a win. COWBOYS, 24-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: What would it take to slow the record-setting Drew Brees and his dynamic Saints offense? More than the Falcons have got. SAINTS, 34-24
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: It has not been a great season for the Bengals, and the Browns are definitely improving, but this game will finish like most contests between these two have been. A close game, and a bit lackluster in performance. BENGALS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have the lowest-producing offense in the league, now that the Giants have woken up. The Jags offense isn't much better. Where the Jags ARE better, though, is defense. The Bills will have a tough time moving up the field in this game. JAGS, 23-16
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets think QB Sam Darnold will be ready to play in this game. Truthfully, they might be better to let him sit. I don't think the Jets will beat the Patriots with him, and that feisty Patriots defense might aggravate Darnold's condition. Let him sit one out. PATS, 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Who lit the fire under the Giants' butt? Oh yeah, it was Odell Beckham, Junior. Since he announced that the Giants were equipped to win all of their remaining eight games, they have gone out and won two in a row. Great accomplishment! Can they keep that going? God knows the Eagles have done everything in their power to diminish themselves, pushing their record to 4-6 and so far on track to be the second-worst performing Super Bowl Champion defender in league history. The Eagles are suffering from some of the same in-fighting the Giants faced before Beckham got them motivated. The question is, will motivation alone get them past the Eagles? It shouldn't, but it might. I'll pick the Eagles, but watch out for the Giants streak to continue. EAGLES, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Could Lamar Jackson have been the spark the Ravens needed? He certainly rejuvenated the offense last week. Of course, against the struggling Raiders, even washout Johnny Manziel could succeed. RAVENS, 28-17
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs have flipped back to Jameis Winston to start this week. I guess they forgot what caused them to switch quarterbacks three weeks ago. Ah well, this is likely a lost season for the Bucs, so give Winston some extended practice time. The Bucs might actually win this game, only because the 49ers are forced to play a third-string QB who had played a total of two games before this season. Remember, a Nick Mullins-led 49ers squad losing to the Giants is what started them on their two-game streak. The Giants other victory? Against a Winston-led Bucs team. Call this the"Battle of the teams worse than the Giants". BUCS, 26-23
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers lost to Detroit due to problems with kicker Graham Gano and a missed 2-point conversion. Could Gano get himself back on track? He might have to, as these two teams are evenly-matched enough that it could down to a field goal difference. I give the Seahawks the edge there, but watch to see if Gano saves the day at the end of the game. SEAHAWKS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: Let's consider last week an aberration. The Chargers should maul the Cardinals pretty easily. CHARGERS, 27-16
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has gotten fired up, and that has resulted in a rejuvenated Colts team. Aside from the Saints, nobody has looked better on offense the past two weeks. That should continue here, as the Dolphins are not the strongest on defense. COLTS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: Denver should be able to score against the bruised Steelers defense, but Big Ben will drive the Steelers just a little bit better. Both teams like to run the ball, so expect a big ground attack. STEELERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Kurt Cousins hasn't been as beneficial to the Vikings as they hoped, but injuries are dragging down the Pack. While this one will be close, it won't end in a tie, like their first meeting this season. VIKINGS, 24-23
Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: While attention has been shown other teams, Houston has quietly amassed a 7-3 record and lead the AFC South. The Texans aren't flashy, but they get the job done. TEXANS, 20-17
Thanksgiving Day
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is treating a sore shoulder, but the Bears won't need him in top shape to overwhelm the Lions. They just need to have their defense pressure fragile Lions QB Matthew Stafford. A couple of interceptions and several drop balls will plague the Lions offense and ensure a Bears win. BEARS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: With Alex Smith gone for the season, the Redskins bring in journeyman Colt McCoy (a native Texan) to battle the Cowboys. Nice try, but the infusion of hometown blood won't help the Redskins escape Dallas with a win. COWBOYS, 24-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: What would it take to slow the record-setting Drew Brees and his dynamic Saints offense? More than the Falcons have got. SAINTS, 34-24
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: It has not been a great season for the Bengals, and the Browns are definitely improving, but this game will finish like most contests between these two have been. A close game, and a bit lackluster in performance. BENGALS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have the lowest-producing offense in the league, now that the Giants have woken up. The Jags offense isn't much better. Where the Jags ARE better, though, is defense. The Bills will have a tough time moving up the field in this game. JAGS, 23-16
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets think QB Sam Darnold will be ready to play in this game. Truthfully, they might be better to let him sit. I don't think the Jets will beat the Patriots with him, and that feisty Patriots defense might aggravate Darnold's condition. Let him sit one out. PATS, 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Who lit the fire under the Giants' butt? Oh yeah, it was Odell Beckham, Junior. Since he announced that the Giants were equipped to win all of their remaining eight games, they have gone out and won two in a row. Great accomplishment! Can they keep that going? God knows the Eagles have done everything in their power to diminish themselves, pushing their record to 4-6 and so far on track to be the second-worst performing Super Bowl Champion defender in league history. The Eagles are suffering from some of the same in-fighting the Giants faced before Beckham got them motivated. The question is, will motivation alone get them past the Eagles? It shouldn't, but it might. I'll pick the Eagles, but watch out for the Giants streak to continue. EAGLES, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Could Lamar Jackson have been the spark the Ravens needed? He certainly rejuvenated the offense last week. Of course, against the struggling Raiders, even washout Johnny Manziel could succeed. RAVENS, 28-17
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs have flipped back to Jameis Winston to start this week. I guess they forgot what caused them to switch quarterbacks three weeks ago. Ah well, this is likely a lost season for the Bucs, so give Winston some extended practice time. The Bucs might actually win this game, only because the 49ers are forced to play a third-string QB who had played a total of two games before this season. Remember, a Nick Mullins-led 49ers squad losing to the Giants is what started them on their two-game streak. The Giants other victory? Against a Winston-led Bucs team. Call this the"Battle of the teams worse than the Giants". BUCS, 26-23
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers lost to Detroit due to problems with kicker Graham Gano and a missed 2-point conversion. Could Gano get himself back on track? He might have to, as these two teams are evenly-matched enough that it could down to a field goal difference. I give the Seahawks the edge there, but watch to see if Gano saves the day at the end of the game. SEAHAWKS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: Let's consider last week an aberration. The Chargers should maul the Cardinals pretty easily. CHARGERS, 27-16
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has gotten fired up, and that has resulted in a rejuvenated Colts team. Aside from the Saints, nobody has looked better on offense the past two weeks. That should continue here, as the Dolphins are not the strongest on defense. COLTS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: Denver should be able to score against the bruised Steelers defense, but Big Ben will drive the Steelers just a little bit better. Both teams like to run the ball, so expect a big ground attack. STEELERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Kurt Cousins hasn't been as beneficial to the Vikings as they hoped, but injuries are dragging down the Pack. While this one will be close, it won't end in a tie, like their first meeting this season. VIKINGS, 24-23
Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: While attention has been shown other teams, Houston has quietly amassed a 7-3 record and lead the AFC South. The Texans aren't flashy, but they get the job done. TEXANS, 20-17
Sunday, November 18, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 12 Top 25 and title races
It was trap week for many conferences except the SEC, who played most weaklings in this penultimate week of the season. Even so, Alabama faced a scare in their first half against one of the worst teams in FCS.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (11-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (10-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [7]
8. Washington State Cougars (10-1) [10]
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [8]
10. LSU Tigers (9-2) [12]
11. Utah State Aggies (10-1) [11]
12. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-2) [9]
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-3) [15]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) [16]
15. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (8-3) [19]
17. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-2) [20]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2) [14]
19. UAB Blazers (9-2) [17]
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) [23]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [22]
22. Florida Gators (8-3) [NR]
23. Washington Huskies (8-3) [NR]
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) [NR]
25. Syracuse Orange (8-3) [13]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#21], Iowa State Cyclones [#24], Virginia Cavaliers [#25]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (8-3), Temple Owls (7-4), North Texas Mean Green (8-3), Troy Trojans (9-2), Utah Utes (8-3), Wisconsin Badgers (7-4), Memphis Tigers (7-4), Florida International Golden Panthers (8-3)
Title Races
American Athletic: UCF wins the East, and will face the winner of the Houston v Memphis battle
ACC: Clemson v Pittsburgh
Big XII: The winner of the Oklahoma v West Virginia bout wins the title, as a Mountaineers already beat Texas and a Sooners win gives them the best conference record
Big Ten: Northwestern faces the winner of the Big Game (Ohio State v Michigan)
Conference USA: UAB plays the East winner, which is Florida International if they win (Middle Tennessee needs a win AND a Panthers loss)
Mountain West: Fresno State takes on the winner of the Utah State v Boise State matchup
Pac-12: Utah plays the winner of the "Battle of Washington"
Sun Belt East: The winner of the Troy v Appalachian State battle wins the division
Sun Belt West: If Louisiana wins against UL Monroe, they win. A Monroe win AND an Arkansas State win sends the Red Wolves. UL Monroe needs a win AND an Arkansas State loss.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (11-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (10-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [7]
8. Washington State Cougars (10-1) [10]
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [8]
10. LSU Tigers (9-2) [12]
11. Utah State Aggies (10-1) [11]
12. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-2) [9]
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-3) [15]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) [16]
15. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (8-3) [19]
17. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-2) [20]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2) [14]
19. UAB Blazers (9-2) [17]
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) [23]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [22]
22. Florida Gators (8-3) [NR]
23. Washington Huskies (8-3) [NR]
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) [NR]
25. Syracuse Orange (8-3) [13]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#21], Iowa State Cyclones [#24], Virginia Cavaliers [#25]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (8-3), Temple Owls (7-4), North Texas Mean Green (8-3), Troy Trojans (9-2), Utah Utes (8-3), Wisconsin Badgers (7-4), Memphis Tigers (7-4), Florida International Golden Panthers (8-3)
Title Races
American Athletic: UCF wins the East, and will face the winner of the Houston v Memphis battle
ACC: Clemson v Pittsburgh
Big XII: The winner of the Oklahoma v West Virginia bout wins the title, as a Mountaineers already beat Texas and a Sooners win gives them the best conference record
Big Ten: Northwestern faces the winner of the Big Game (Ohio State v Michigan)
Conference USA: UAB plays the East winner, which is Florida International if they win (Middle Tennessee needs a win AND a Panthers loss)
Mountain West: Fresno State takes on the winner of the Utah State v Boise State matchup
Pac-12: Utah plays the winner of the "Battle of Washington"
Sun Belt East: The winner of the Troy v Appalachian State battle wins the division
Sun Belt West: If Louisiana wins against UL Monroe, they win. A Monroe win AND an Arkansas State win sends the Red Wolves. UL Monroe needs a win AND an Arkansas State loss.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 11 Top 25 and races
The games aren't quite complete on Saturday night, but my Top 25 is. A few surprises, but as many as we often get as we near the end of the season.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (10-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (9-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (9-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) [9]
10. Washington State Cougars (9-1) [10]
11. Utah State Aggies (9-1) [13]
12. LSU Tigers (8-2) [11]
13. Syracuse Orange (8-2) [14]
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-1) [15]
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-3) [16]
16. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) [12]
17. UAB Blazers (9-1) [17]
18. Boise State Broncos (7-2) [22]
19. Texas Longhorns (7-3) [19]
20. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-2) [23]
21. Buffalo Bulls (9-1) [25]
22. Army Black Knights (8-2) [NR]
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) [18]
24. Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) [NR]
25. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#20], Boston College Eagles [#21], Kentucky Wildcats [#24]
On the Edge: Washington Huskies (7-3), Temple Owls (6-4), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-4), North Texas Mean Green (7-3), Troy Trojans (8-2), Houston Cougars (7-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-4), Florida Gators (7-3)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF retains the lead and clinch it next week against Cincinnati. If the Bearcats win out, though, they win. Temple would need to win out, have Cincy beat UCF, and then Cincy lose their last game.
American Athletic West: This one is a four-way chaotic race among SMU, Houston, Tulane, and Memphis. Too complicated to discuss here. Let's see what next week's results hold.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson has clinched
ACC Coastal: Pitt clinches with one more win. Virginia would have to win out and hope Pitt loses both of their remaining games.
Big XII: This one seems like it will come down to the season-ending game featuring Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas has an outside chance. The Longhorns would have to win both of their remaining games while Oklahoma loses one and West Virginia loses both. That means both Oklahoma and West Virginia would have to lose next week for Texas to have a shot.
Big Ten East: This one will be decided by the Big Game, which looks like favors Michigan based on Ohio State's latest lackluster play.
Big Ten West: Northwestern has clinched the title.
Conference USA East: Middle Tennessee needs to beat UAB and hope Florida International loses a game in order to capture the division title they currently lead. Florida International already beat the Blue Raiders, so they capture the title by winning out OR UAB beating Middle Tennessee.
Conference USA West: UAB wins by winning out. One more win OR a Louisiana Tech loss also clinches the title for them.
MAC Title game features Buffalo and Northern Illinois
Mountain: If Boise State loses next week and the Aggies win, Utah State captures the crown. Otherwise, the winner of the Boise State v Utah State battle at the end of the season determines the title.
West: Fresno State's loss means that the winner of next week's San Diego State v Fresno State game is the division winner
Pac-12 North: A Washington loss clinches the title for Washington State, and that may come when they face each other at the end of the season.
Pac-12 South: A four-team race makes this a complicated division, too. Check back next week.
Sun Belt East: The battle between Troy and Appalachian State at the end of the season will decide this one, unless Appalachian State loses next week.
Sun Belt West: UL Monroe faces the other two contenders for this title, so winning out clinches this title. A split in the wins depends upon who wins and loses.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (10-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (9-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (9-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) [9]
10. Washington State Cougars (9-1) [10]
11. Utah State Aggies (9-1) [13]
12. LSU Tigers (8-2) [11]
13. Syracuse Orange (8-2) [14]
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-1) [15]
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-3) [16]
16. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) [12]
17. UAB Blazers (9-1) [17]
18. Boise State Broncos (7-2) [22]
19. Texas Longhorns (7-3) [19]
20. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-2) [23]
21. Buffalo Bulls (9-1) [25]
22. Army Black Knights (8-2) [NR]
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) [18]
24. Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) [NR]
25. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#20], Boston College Eagles [#21], Kentucky Wildcats [#24]
On the Edge: Washington Huskies (7-3), Temple Owls (6-4), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-4), North Texas Mean Green (7-3), Troy Trojans (8-2), Houston Cougars (7-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-4), Florida Gators (7-3)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF retains the lead and clinch it next week against Cincinnati. If the Bearcats win out, though, they win. Temple would need to win out, have Cincy beat UCF, and then Cincy lose their last game.
American Athletic West: This one is a four-way chaotic race among SMU, Houston, Tulane, and Memphis. Too complicated to discuss here. Let's see what next week's results hold.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson has clinched
ACC Coastal: Pitt clinches with one more win. Virginia would have to win out and hope Pitt loses both of their remaining games.
Big XII: This one seems like it will come down to the season-ending game featuring Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas has an outside chance. The Longhorns would have to win both of their remaining games while Oklahoma loses one and West Virginia loses both. That means both Oklahoma and West Virginia would have to lose next week for Texas to have a shot.
Big Ten East: This one will be decided by the Big Game, which looks like favors Michigan based on Ohio State's latest lackluster play.
Big Ten West: Northwestern has clinched the title.
Conference USA East: Middle Tennessee needs to beat UAB and hope Florida International loses a game in order to capture the division title they currently lead. Florida International already beat the Blue Raiders, so they capture the title by winning out OR UAB beating Middle Tennessee.
Conference USA West: UAB wins by winning out. One more win OR a Louisiana Tech loss also clinches the title for them.
MAC Title game features Buffalo and Northern Illinois
Mountain: If Boise State loses next week and the Aggies win, Utah State captures the crown. Otherwise, the winner of the Boise State v Utah State battle at the end of the season determines the title.
West: Fresno State's loss means that the winner of next week's San Diego State v Fresno State game is the division winner
Pac-12 North: A Washington loss clinches the title for Washington State, and that may come when they face each other at the end of the season.
Pac-12 South: A four-team race makes this a complicated division, too. Check back next week.
Sun Belt East: The battle between Troy and Appalachian State at the end of the season will decide this one, unless Appalachian State loses next week.
Sun Belt West: UL Monroe faces the other two contenders for this title, so winning out clinches this title. A split in the wins depends upon who wins and loses.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 11 picks
As I type this, Buffalo won last night and Miami Ohio is slaughtering Ohio. The Bulls might win their division even BEFORE playing the Bobcats next week.
Thurs Nov 8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Oh, the difference November makes. At the start of the season, Wake was tearing through opponents while NC State was barely winning. Now, the Deacons have struggling in conference while NC State (at one time) threatened Clemson's title hopes. The Wolfpack won't make the ACC Championship Game, but they'll demolish Wake. NC STATE
Fri Nov 9
Louisville Cardinals at #14 Syracuse Orange: The Cardinals have not won a single ACC game this season, and it won't start here! Syracuse is having a stellar year, and they are on track for a 10-win season. SYRACUSE
#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at #22 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State may be the strongest team in the Mountain West. Utah State gets the attention with their dynamic offense, but the Bulldogs have one of the stingiest defenses in the country. FRESNO STATE
Sat Nov 10
Top 25
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: How do we reward the Bulldogs' return to the Top 25? Throw them to the Tide as a sacrificial lamb. ALABAMA
#2 Clemson Tigers at #21 Boston College Eagles: Clemson gets to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship with a win here. That's clear incentive, as well as maintaining their unbeaten record and a spot in the playoffs. CLEMSON
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Given the problems experienced by the Noles this season, this might be the Irish's easiest game of the season. NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of easy games... MICHIGAN
Navy Midshipmen at #5 UCF Golden Knights: Navy has been mostly ineffective this season, so this game should be a breeze for the Knights. UCF
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: In-state rivalry games can always get interesting, but the Sooners shouldn't have too much difficulty knocking off the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is capable of some offense, so this one might exceed 100 total points. OKLAHOMA
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: Auburn's defense may slow Georgia, but until the Tigers offense wakes up, they won't beat the more talented teams in the conference. GEORGIA
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Ohio State has looked lackluster since barely scraping out their victory against Penn State, and the defense has definitely suffered without Nick Bosa. This will be a defensive battle, and the Spartans will likely lead at halftime (the Buckeyes have played so slowly in the first half of most of their games this season). The Buckeyes should win, but the Spartans will keep it close, like within a touchdown. OHIO STATE
TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers: TCU's conference performance has not matched their early season magic. Can they regain some of that? Not against the tough Mountaineers defense. Defense is not something frequently seen in this conference, and TCU has no defense against it. WEST VIRGINIA
#10 Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes: Colorado is another team who has struggled in conference play after a fabulous non-conference campaign, so they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE
#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas hasn't won a conference game yet. This won't be it. LSU
San Jose State Spartans at #13 Utah State Aggies: The Aggies have the best offense in the conference, and one of the best offenses in the country. They will overwhelm the struggling Spartans. UTAH STATE
South Florida Bulls at #15 Cincinati Bearcats: Cincinnati has a tough defense. The Bulls are typically a defensive team, but their defense has been lacking this season. This will be a pretty one-sided game. CINCINNATI
Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has struggled since their close loss to Ohio State. If they cannot regain their form, Wisconsin will sting them. The Badgers have a strong running game, so the Lions defensive line will help them. However, when the running game is struggling, the Badgers can sometimes pull out some interesting plays to rejuvenate the offense. If they do that in this game, Wisconsin could pull off the upset. PENN STATE
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #17 UAB Blazers: The Blazers have a blazing defense. They have averaged allowing less than seven points per Conference USA opponent. Will the Eagles do that? They may score more than 7 points, but not by much; not enough to win. UAB
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern is an interesting team this year. They have not been impressive, but they seem to produce just enough to win. They have lost only one conference game this season, despite losing all of their non-conference games. Iowa typically is the team that plays up to the skill level of their opponent, but they are faltering a bit this year. Iowa has the talent to win this game, but will Northwestern pull off another "just enough" victory? I'll pick Iowa, but they cannot make stupid mistakes. IOWA
#19 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders: This could be an interesting game. Texas has a better defense, but the Raiders have a strong offense. How good is that Texas defense? They couldn't hold back Oklahoma, but won the Red River Rivalry by an offensive flurry. Can they do that again? I think so, but watch for an upset here. TEXAS
#23 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats: One of the weaker offenses in the Sun Belt faces the toughest defense. This doesn't seem to be a challenge. APPALACHIAN STATE
#24 Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee's defense has wilted, so this will be an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats offense to shine. KENTUCKY
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Las Vegas thinks the Cornhuskers will win by 17 points. I think the margin of victory, and I think the winner is wrong. Illinois is starting to get themselves together on offense, and their defense has been pretty good. Nebraska crumbles against a decent defense. ILLINOIS
Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers: Vegas also favors Indiana, which shows they haven't been paying attention at all. Indiana's defense sucks, so the Terrapins will move the ball at will. The Hoosiers offense is okay, but they won't be able to keep pace. MARYLAND
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Purdue is chasing Northwestern for a shot at the Big Ten title. Minnesota, after a fabulous non-conference schedule, has collapsed. No contest. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles: Troy leads the East division, and a win here would make them the clear frontrunner. Georgia Southern is no easy target, though. They have already beaten Appalachian State. A win here would give them tiebreaker control over both of their competitors for the division title. Troy has the better stats, but only by a slim margin. I have to favor the determination of the home team, especially after their performance against Appalachian State. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion is struggling in conference play, which should give North Texas a clear edge. NORTH TEXAS
UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils: This has not been UCLA's year. While they would love to engineer an upset over Herm Edwards and his young Sun Devils squad, I don't think they have the power to do it. ARIZONA STATE
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Houston leads the West while Temple wants to keep pace with Cincy and UCF in the East. Admirable goal, and they have already beaten Cincy to help that cause, but Houston's high-powered offense will prove too much. HOUSTON
Thurs Nov 8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Oh, the difference November makes. At the start of the season, Wake was tearing through opponents while NC State was barely winning. Now, the Deacons have struggling in conference while NC State (at one time) threatened Clemson's title hopes. The Wolfpack won't make the ACC Championship Game, but they'll demolish Wake. NC STATE
Fri Nov 9
Louisville Cardinals at #14 Syracuse Orange: The Cardinals have not won a single ACC game this season, and it won't start here! Syracuse is having a stellar year, and they are on track for a 10-win season. SYRACUSE
#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at #22 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State may be the strongest team in the Mountain West. Utah State gets the attention with their dynamic offense, but the Bulldogs have one of the stingiest defenses in the country. FRESNO STATE
Sat Nov 10
Top 25
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: How do we reward the Bulldogs' return to the Top 25? Throw them to the Tide as a sacrificial lamb. ALABAMA
#2 Clemson Tigers at #21 Boston College Eagles: Clemson gets to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship with a win here. That's clear incentive, as well as maintaining their unbeaten record and a spot in the playoffs. CLEMSON
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Given the problems experienced by the Noles this season, this might be the Irish's easiest game of the season. NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of easy games... MICHIGAN
Navy Midshipmen at #5 UCF Golden Knights: Navy has been mostly ineffective this season, so this game should be a breeze for the Knights. UCF
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: In-state rivalry games can always get interesting, but the Sooners shouldn't have too much difficulty knocking off the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is capable of some offense, so this one might exceed 100 total points. OKLAHOMA
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: Auburn's defense may slow Georgia, but until the Tigers offense wakes up, they won't beat the more talented teams in the conference. GEORGIA
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Ohio State has looked lackluster since barely scraping out their victory against Penn State, and the defense has definitely suffered without Nick Bosa. This will be a defensive battle, and the Spartans will likely lead at halftime (the Buckeyes have played so slowly in the first half of most of their games this season). The Buckeyes should win, but the Spartans will keep it close, like within a touchdown. OHIO STATE
TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers: TCU's conference performance has not matched their early season magic. Can they regain some of that? Not against the tough Mountaineers defense. Defense is not something frequently seen in this conference, and TCU has no defense against it. WEST VIRGINIA
#10 Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes: Colorado is another team who has struggled in conference play after a fabulous non-conference campaign, so they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE
#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas hasn't won a conference game yet. This won't be it. LSU
San Jose State Spartans at #13 Utah State Aggies: The Aggies have the best offense in the conference, and one of the best offenses in the country. They will overwhelm the struggling Spartans. UTAH STATE
South Florida Bulls at #15 Cincinati Bearcats: Cincinnati has a tough defense. The Bulls are typically a defensive team, but their defense has been lacking this season. This will be a pretty one-sided game. CINCINNATI
Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has struggled since their close loss to Ohio State. If they cannot regain their form, Wisconsin will sting them. The Badgers have a strong running game, so the Lions defensive line will help them. However, when the running game is struggling, the Badgers can sometimes pull out some interesting plays to rejuvenate the offense. If they do that in this game, Wisconsin could pull off the upset. PENN STATE
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #17 UAB Blazers: The Blazers have a blazing defense. They have averaged allowing less than seven points per Conference USA opponent. Will the Eagles do that? They may score more than 7 points, but not by much; not enough to win. UAB
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern is an interesting team this year. They have not been impressive, but they seem to produce just enough to win. They have lost only one conference game this season, despite losing all of their non-conference games. Iowa typically is the team that plays up to the skill level of their opponent, but they are faltering a bit this year. Iowa has the talent to win this game, but will Northwestern pull off another "just enough" victory? I'll pick Iowa, but they cannot make stupid mistakes. IOWA
#19 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders: This could be an interesting game. Texas has a better defense, but the Raiders have a strong offense. How good is that Texas defense? They couldn't hold back Oklahoma, but won the Red River Rivalry by an offensive flurry. Can they do that again? I think so, but watch for an upset here. TEXAS
#23 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats: One of the weaker offenses in the Sun Belt faces the toughest defense. This doesn't seem to be a challenge. APPALACHIAN STATE
#24 Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee's defense has wilted, so this will be an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats offense to shine. KENTUCKY
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Las Vegas thinks the Cornhuskers will win by 17 points. I think the margin of victory, and I think the winner is wrong. Illinois is starting to get themselves together on offense, and their defense has been pretty good. Nebraska crumbles against a decent defense. ILLINOIS
Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers: Vegas also favors Indiana, which shows they haven't been paying attention at all. Indiana's defense sucks, so the Terrapins will move the ball at will. The Hoosiers offense is okay, but they won't be able to keep pace. MARYLAND
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Purdue is chasing Northwestern for a shot at the Big Ten title. Minnesota, after a fabulous non-conference schedule, has collapsed. No contest. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles: Troy leads the East division, and a win here would make them the clear frontrunner. Georgia Southern is no easy target, though. They have already beaten Appalachian State. A win here would give them tiebreaker control over both of their competitors for the division title. Troy has the better stats, but only by a slim margin. I have to favor the determination of the home team, especially after their performance against Appalachian State. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion is struggling in conference play, which should give North Texas a clear edge. NORTH TEXAS
UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils: This has not been UCLA's year. While they would love to engineer an upset over Herm Edwards and his young Sun Devils squad, I don't think they have the power to do it. ARIZONA STATE
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Houston leads the West while Temple wants to keep pace with Cincy and UCF in the East. Admirable goal, and they have already beaten Cincy to help that cause, but Houston's high-powered offense will prove too much. HOUSTON
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
NCAA Football Week 10 Top 25 and conference races
It's a busy week for me and a tight schedule, so I'll make this as quick as possible. This is the first week of the conference and division races, and the SEC has already locked up theirs. No conference reports, or even discussions of upsets from last week. I'll even include my pick for Tuesday's game here, as I won't have another chance to post until Wed night.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (9-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (8-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1) [11]
10. Washington State Cougars (8-1) [12]
11. LSU Tigers (7-2) [9]
12. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1) [14]
13. Utah State Aggies (8-1) [15]
14. Syracuse Orange (7-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-1) [18]
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) [10]
17. UAB Blazers (8-1) [22]
18. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) [13]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-3) [19]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) [NR]
21. Boston College Eagles (7-2) [23]
22. Boise State Broncos (6-2) [24]
23. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-2) [NR]
24. Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) [20]
25. Buffalo Bulls (8-1) [26]
Dropped off: Florida Gators [#16], Houston Cougars [#21], Utah Utes [#25]
On the Edge: North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Army Black Knights (7-2), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3), Purdue Boilermakers (5-4), Washington Huskies (7-3), NC State Wolf Pack (6-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4), Temple Owls (5-4)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF can win it by winning out, or losing only to South Florida. Cincy needs to win out, which would include beating UCF. South Florida and Temple still have remote chances, but the odds are not in their favor.
American Athletic West: SMU actually holds the tiebreaker thanks to their upset win over Houston this week. If SMU wins out and Houston loses, the Mustangs win. A Houston loss to Tulane could make things interesting. Memphis has a very outside chance, but things don't look good for them.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson wins this by beating Boston College this week. An Eagles upset puts them in the driver's seat, but a season closing match against Syracuse would make life interesting. Nobody else has a chance.
ACC Coastal: Pitt wins by winning out. A Panthers victory over Virginia Tech this week leaves only Virginia with a slim chance. The Cavs would have to win out and hope Pitt loses two games. Not likely.
Big XII: This one could come down to the Sooners v Mountaineers on Nov 23rd. A win by both teams this week practically guarantees that game deciding the regular season champ.
Big Ten East: This game has come down to the result of the Big Game -- Ohio State v Michigan.
Big Ten West: It's Northwestern's to lose. If they beat Iowa this week, they don't mathematically clinch it, but they make it almost unattainable for anyone else.
Conference USA East: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders have the easier stretch of games. A loss by the Golden Panthers gives the benefit to Mid Tenn. Charlotte and Marshall have outside chances, but things have to go their way.
Conference USA West: One more conference win by the Blazers gives them the win.
MAC East: If Buffalo beats Ohio in two weeks, they capture the crown
MAC West: A Northern Illinois win over Toledo this week practically guarantees the title. If Western Michigan also loses this week, it is theirs.
Mountain: If both Utah State and Boise State keep winning, this one will be decided by their season-closing game. If Boise loses once before then and the Aggies do not, the Aggies have the title even before that game.
West: If Fresno State beats San Diego State next week, that pretty well sews it up. The fly in the ointment could be the Boise State contest this week. A Fresno loss means they have to win out to clinch the title. If Boise State beats Fresno, then San Diego State wins by winning out.
Pac-12 North: Washington State has the edge. This one may come down to the Washington game at the end of the season, unless the Huskies lose again.
Pac-12 South: This division is wide open. Let's see what happens this week.
Sun Belt East: Troy leads, and face their two runners-up in the weeks remaining. They win if they win out. A loss to either Georgia Southern or Appalachian State opens the door to that other team.
Sun Belt West: Unless Louisiana loses again, this one may be decided when the Ragin Cajuns face UL Monroe at the end of the season.
Tues Nov 6
Kent State Golden Flashes at #25 Buffalo Bulls: Buffalo should win this easily, giving them a clear shot to win the division. BUFFALO
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (9-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (8-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1) [11]
10. Washington State Cougars (8-1) [12]
11. LSU Tigers (7-2) [9]
12. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1) [14]
13. Utah State Aggies (8-1) [15]
14. Syracuse Orange (7-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-1) [18]
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) [10]
17. UAB Blazers (8-1) [22]
18. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) [13]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-3) [19]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) [NR]
21. Boston College Eagles (7-2) [23]
22. Boise State Broncos (6-2) [24]
23. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-2) [NR]
24. Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) [20]
25. Buffalo Bulls (8-1) [26]
Dropped off: Florida Gators [#16], Houston Cougars [#21], Utah Utes [#25]
On the Edge: North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Army Black Knights (7-2), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3), Purdue Boilermakers (5-4), Washington Huskies (7-3), NC State Wolf Pack (6-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4), Temple Owls (5-4)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF can win it by winning out, or losing only to South Florida. Cincy needs to win out, which would include beating UCF. South Florida and Temple still have remote chances, but the odds are not in their favor.
American Athletic West: SMU actually holds the tiebreaker thanks to their upset win over Houston this week. If SMU wins out and Houston loses, the Mustangs win. A Houston loss to Tulane could make things interesting. Memphis has a very outside chance, but things don't look good for them.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson wins this by beating Boston College this week. An Eagles upset puts them in the driver's seat, but a season closing match against Syracuse would make life interesting. Nobody else has a chance.
ACC Coastal: Pitt wins by winning out. A Panthers victory over Virginia Tech this week leaves only Virginia with a slim chance. The Cavs would have to win out and hope Pitt loses two games. Not likely.
Big XII: This one could come down to the Sooners v Mountaineers on Nov 23rd. A win by both teams this week practically guarantees that game deciding the regular season champ.
Big Ten East: This game has come down to the result of the Big Game -- Ohio State v Michigan.
Big Ten West: It's Northwestern's to lose. If they beat Iowa this week, they don't mathematically clinch it, but they make it almost unattainable for anyone else.
Conference USA East: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders have the easier stretch of games. A loss by the Golden Panthers gives the benefit to Mid Tenn. Charlotte and Marshall have outside chances, but things have to go their way.
Conference USA West: One more conference win by the Blazers gives them the win.
MAC East: If Buffalo beats Ohio in two weeks, they capture the crown
MAC West: A Northern Illinois win over Toledo this week practically guarantees the title. If Western Michigan also loses this week, it is theirs.
Mountain: If both Utah State and Boise State keep winning, this one will be decided by their season-closing game. If Boise loses once before then and the Aggies do not, the Aggies have the title even before that game.
West: If Fresno State beats San Diego State next week, that pretty well sews it up. The fly in the ointment could be the Boise State contest this week. A Fresno loss means they have to win out to clinch the title. If Boise State beats Fresno, then San Diego State wins by winning out.
Pac-12 North: Washington State has the edge. This one may come down to the Washington game at the end of the season, unless the Huskies lose again.
Pac-12 South: This division is wide open. Let's see what happens this week.
Sun Belt East: Troy leads, and face their two runners-up in the weeks remaining. They win if they win out. A loss to either Georgia Southern or Appalachian State opens the door to that other team.
Sun Belt West: Unless Louisiana loses again, this one may be decided when the Ragin Cajuns face UL Monroe at the end of the season.
Tues Nov 6
Kent State Golden Flashes at #25 Buffalo Bulls: Buffalo should win this easily, giving them a clear shot to win the division. BUFFALO
Monday, October 29, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 10 picks
It's a relatively easy week to pick, with few games where I think either team has an equal shot. This late in the season, that concerns me.
Tues Oct 30
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Buffalo Bulls: The Bulls are red hot in the MAC, and they should burn the wings off the RedHawks. That will leave just Ohio as a threat to their division title hopes. BUFFALO
Thurs Nov 1
Temple Owls at #5 UCF Golden Knights: The Knights have the longest winning streak in the nation, as they haven't lost since 2016. That streak will continue here. UCF
Fri Nov 2
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers: If the Cavs take care of Pitt, then their only real competition for the division is in-state rival Virginia Tech. Pitt can be tricky, and may give the Cavs some problems, but Virginia should pull this one out. VIRGINIA
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats: After a slow start, Arizona has picked up steam recently. This game will test whether their rebirth is valid, or just because they faced weaker opposition. Colorado is no longer a conference title contender, but they still have a fearsome team. COLORADO
Sat Nov 3
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #9 LSU Tigers: Alabama will get to clinch their division with this win. The Tide is playing strongly; really, the only Power Five team to have been consistently powerful for every game this season. Could this be the game where they show cracks? I suppose it has to happen to everyone once, but I don't think this will be the game for the Tide. ALABAMA
Louisville Cardinals at #2 Clemson Tigers: The best team in the ACC against the worst team in the ACC? No problem picking this one. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats have been winning Big Ten games, but they have not been consistent enough for my tastes. Further, I don't think they have the tools to beat the strong team the Irish has this year. NOTRE DAME
#10 Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Michigan Wolverines: The Wolverines have honed their team into a serious powerhouse. Penn State has never fully recovered from their loss to Ohio State, although holding off Iowa last week showed signs of the old Lions. Still, they don't move as quickly as they did against the Buckeyes, and that speed will be needed against Michigan. MICHIGAN
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Texas Tech is doing okay, but they haven't really been tested. They lost to West Virginia, and are yet to face the other tough teams in the conference. That stretch begins now, and it won't end well for them. Oklahoma has all of the tools, and their quick and strong offense will overwhelm the Raiders defense. OKLAHOMA
#7 Georgia Bulldogs at #20 Kentucky Wildcats: Georgia will also clinch their division with a win, as they have only one more SEC game after this. Kentucky has had a brilliant season, but I don't think that season will conclude with a chance to play in the SEC Championship. Could the Wildcats pull off the upset? Perhaps, but given their recent close games, I doubt it. GEORGIA
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes: So Nebraska has a conference win in their belt. They should enjoy that, as it is likely their last one. OHIO STATE
#11 West Virginia Mountaineers at #19 Texas Longhorns: Here's a possible upset. While the Mountaineers defense makes them a good candidate to beat Texas, the Longhorns have been an unbeaten force at home this season. Could their crowd give them an extra boost? Perhaps, but I still like the rare defensive force in the Big XII (who rarely faces a tough defense) to engineer the victory. WEST VIRGINIA
Cal Golden Bears at #12 Washington State Cougars: The Cougars continue their quest for the Pac-12 Championship, and Cal is not that difficult an obstacle. WASHINGTON STATE
#13 Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers: This game is crucial for both teams. The loser is definitely out of the division race. Purdue has been impressive recently, and their offense can surprise. Iowa has the better defense, but can they move the ball enough to overcome Purdue? This will be a close game, but I'll give a slight edge to the better defense. IOWA
#14 Fresno State Bulldogs at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV is the worst team in the Mountain West. No contest here. FRESNO STATE
#15 Utah State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: The Warriors are a tough force at home, but the Aggies have been an offensive behemoth this season. They should overwhelm the Warriors. UTAH STATE
Missouri Tigers at #16 Florida Gators: Florida has lost a bid at the division title, but that doesn't make them any less dangerous. The Gators have progressed much better under new coach Dan Mullen, and they are showing things that many SEC teams have not seen. The last Florida coach to do that? Urban Meyer. FLORIDA
#17 Syracuse Orange at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake started the season well, but they have faded in conference play. Syracuse should continue their march in the ACC with a win here. SYRACUSE
Navy Midshipmen at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: Navy needs to win out to prevent a losing record. They won't be able to do so, because they won't even leave Cincinnati with a win. CINCINNATI
#21 Houston Cougars at SMU Mustangs: Houston continues their unbeaten conference record by pummeling SMU. They won't clinch their division here, but they will make it really hard for Tulane to get it. HOUSTON
UTSA Roadrunners at #22 UAB Blazers: Wiley Coyote could never catch the road runner, but the Blazers should have no trouble stopping these Roadrunners. UAB
#23 Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies: This is where BC's road to the ACC Championship really begins. They beat Miami last week but lost to NC State a few weeks ago. They now face conference contenders Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse in the next four weeks. This is a tough stretch. The Eagles have a good defense, which has been a problem for the Hokies. The Hokies also have a good defense, but BC has a better offense. BOSTON COLLEGE
BYU Cougars at #24 Boise State Broncos: Boise State knows they are chasing Utah State, and that every win counts, even against a non-conference opponent. It can be hard for teams to play on the blue turf at Boise, and BYU has been away from this conference too long. The speed and strength of the Mountain West will overwhelm the more passive Cougars. BOISE STATE
#25 Utah Utes at Arizona State Sun Devils: The North division has the exciting teams this season, but Utah is the one bright spot in the South. Herm Edwards has done some great things for Arizona State, but I think they are still a season away from being a division contender. UTAH
Big Ten
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin gets back to their winning ways by slaughtering pathetic Rutgers. WISCONSIN
Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: Did I say at the beginning of this column that I didn't see many upsets? Not many, but this is one. Maryland's offense is rolling again, and the Spartans defense is missing the spark it has had over the past few seasons. MARYLAND
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: I think I have to wait for the Nebraska game to see my Illini win again. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights: Army wins the Commander-in-Chief trophy with a beatdown on the downtrodden Falcons. ARMY
Georgia Southern Eagles at UL Monroe: I do not think the Eagles will suffer from a post-Mountaineers letdown against struggling UL Monroe. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: And the Mountaineers get back to their winning ways by demolishing Coastal Carolina. APPALACHIAN STATE
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Battle of the Bulldogs goes to the home team. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Tues Oct 30
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Buffalo Bulls: The Bulls are red hot in the MAC, and they should burn the wings off the RedHawks. That will leave just Ohio as a threat to their division title hopes. BUFFALO
Thurs Nov 1
Temple Owls at #5 UCF Golden Knights: The Knights have the longest winning streak in the nation, as they haven't lost since 2016. That streak will continue here. UCF
Fri Nov 2
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers: If the Cavs take care of Pitt, then their only real competition for the division is in-state rival Virginia Tech. Pitt can be tricky, and may give the Cavs some problems, but Virginia should pull this one out. VIRGINIA
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats: After a slow start, Arizona has picked up steam recently. This game will test whether their rebirth is valid, or just because they faced weaker opposition. Colorado is no longer a conference title contender, but they still have a fearsome team. COLORADO
Sat Nov 3
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #9 LSU Tigers: Alabama will get to clinch their division with this win. The Tide is playing strongly; really, the only Power Five team to have been consistently powerful for every game this season. Could this be the game where they show cracks? I suppose it has to happen to everyone once, but I don't think this will be the game for the Tide. ALABAMA
Louisville Cardinals at #2 Clemson Tigers: The best team in the ACC against the worst team in the ACC? No problem picking this one. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats have been winning Big Ten games, but they have not been consistent enough for my tastes. Further, I don't think they have the tools to beat the strong team the Irish has this year. NOTRE DAME
#10 Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Michigan Wolverines: The Wolverines have honed their team into a serious powerhouse. Penn State has never fully recovered from their loss to Ohio State, although holding off Iowa last week showed signs of the old Lions. Still, they don't move as quickly as they did against the Buckeyes, and that speed will be needed against Michigan. MICHIGAN
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Texas Tech is doing okay, but they haven't really been tested. They lost to West Virginia, and are yet to face the other tough teams in the conference. That stretch begins now, and it won't end well for them. Oklahoma has all of the tools, and their quick and strong offense will overwhelm the Raiders defense. OKLAHOMA
#7 Georgia Bulldogs at #20 Kentucky Wildcats: Georgia will also clinch their division with a win, as they have only one more SEC game after this. Kentucky has had a brilliant season, but I don't think that season will conclude with a chance to play in the SEC Championship. Could the Wildcats pull off the upset? Perhaps, but given their recent close games, I doubt it. GEORGIA
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes: So Nebraska has a conference win in their belt. They should enjoy that, as it is likely their last one. OHIO STATE
#11 West Virginia Mountaineers at #19 Texas Longhorns: Here's a possible upset. While the Mountaineers defense makes them a good candidate to beat Texas, the Longhorns have been an unbeaten force at home this season. Could their crowd give them an extra boost? Perhaps, but I still like the rare defensive force in the Big XII (who rarely faces a tough defense) to engineer the victory. WEST VIRGINIA
Cal Golden Bears at #12 Washington State Cougars: The Cougars continue their quest for the Pac-12 Championship, and Cal is not that difficult an obstacle. WASHINGTON STATE
#13 Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers: This game is crucial for both teams. The loser is definitely out of the division race. Purdue has been impressive recently, and their offense can surprise. Iowa has the better defense, but can they move the ball enough to overcome Purdue? This will be a close game, but I'll give a slight edge to the better defense. IOWA
#14 Fresno State Bulldogs at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV is the worst team in the Mountain West. No contest here. FRESNO STATE
#15 Utah State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: The Warriors are a tough force at home, but the Aggies have been an offensive behemoth this season. They should overwhelm the Warriors. UTAH STATE
Missouri Tigers at #16 Florida Gators: Florida has lost a bid at the division title, but that doesn't make them any less dangerous. The Gators have progressed much better under new coach Dan Mullen, and they are showing things that many SEC teams have not seen. The last Florida coach to do that? Urban Meyer. FLORIDA
#17 Syracuse Orange at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake started the season well, but they have faded in conference play. Syracuse should continue their march in the ACC with a win here. SYRACUSE
Navy Midshipmen at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: Navy needs to win out to prevent a losing record. They won't be able to do so, because they won't even leave Cincinnati with a win. CINCINNATI
#21 Houston Cougars at SMU Mustangs: Houston continues their unbeaten conference record by pummeling SMU. They won't clinch their division here, but they will make it really hard for Tulane to get it. HOUSTON
UTSA Roadrunners at #22 UAB Blazers: Wiley Coyote could never catch the road runner, but the Blazers should have no trouble stopping these Roadrunners. UAB
#23 Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies: This is where BC's road to the ACC Championship really begins. They beat Miami last week but lost to NC State a few weeks ago. They now face conference contenders Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Syracuse in the next four weeks. This is a tough stretch. The Eagles have a good defense, which has been a problem for the Hokies. The Hokies also have a good defense, but BC has a better offense. BOSTON COLLEGE
BYU Cougars at #24 Boise State Broncos: Boise State knows they are chasing Utah State, and that every win counts, even against a non-conference opponent. It can be hard for teams to play on the blue turf at Boise, and BYU has been away from this conference too long. The speed and strength of the Mountain West will overwhelm the more passive Cougars. BOISE STATE
#25 Utah Utes at Arizona State Sun Devils: The North division has the exciting teams this season, but Utah is the one bright spot in the South. Herm Edwards has done some great things for Arizona State, but I think they are still a season away from being a division contender. UTAH
Big Ten
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin gets back to their winning ways by slaughtering pathetic Rutgers. WISCONSIN
Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: Did I say at the beginning of this column that I didn't see many upsets? Not many, but this is one. Maryland's offense is rolling again, and the Spartans defense is missing the spark it has had over the past few seasons. MARYLAND
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: I think I have to wait for the Nebraska game to see my Illini win again. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights: Army wins the Commander-in-Chief trophy with a beatdown on the downtrodden Falcons. ARMY
Georgia Southern Eagles at UL Monroe: I do not think the Eagles will suffer from a post-Mountaineers letdown against struggling UL Monroe. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: And the Mountaineers get back to their winning ways by demolishing Coastal Carolina. APPALACHIAN STATE
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Battle of the Bulldogs goes to the home team. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sunday, October 28, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 9 results and Top 25
It was another week of upsets, although most of them affected non-ranked teams. Some affected teams close to the Top 25, like Appalachian State's loss to Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech's upset of Virginia Tech (gee, the state of Georgia did really well this week). South Florida lost their first game, leaving only four unbeaten teams and destroying any chance the Bulls had of reaching the rankings.
Upsets abounded in two conferences: Big Ten and Pac-12. Colorado gave up a large fourth quarter lead to Oregon State while Oregon never got anything going against Arizona. As I will discuss in my Big Ten Report, that conference looked like the days of yore, when any team could beat any other team on any given Saturday.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (8-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [8]
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [10]
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2) [12]
11. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1) [14]
12. Washington State Cougars (7-1) [15]
13. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) [9]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1) [17]
15. Utah State Aggies (7-1) [18]
16. Florida Gators (6-2) [11]
17. Syracuse Orange (6-2) [23]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) [19]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [13]
20. Kentucky Wildcats (7-1) [22]
21. Houston Cougars (7-1) [24]
22. UAB Blazers (7-1) [NR]
23. Boston College Eagles (6-2) [NR]
24. Boise State Broncos (5-2) [NR]
25. Utah Utes (6-2) [NR]
Dropped off: Wisconsin Badgers [#16], Washington Huskies [#20], Miami Hurricanes [#21], Oregon Ducks [#25]
On the Edge: Buffalo Bulls (7-1), Virginia Cavaliers (6-2), Army Black Knights (6-2), North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Georgia Southern Eagles (7-1), Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-3), Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-2), Temple Owls (5-3)
With four weeks still to play, there are too many scenarios to accurately predict divisional races. I'll start that next week.
Big Ten Report
Man, it felt like the 70's and early 80's, as records didn't matter and players threw themselves at opponents. Aside from Maryland's rout of Illinois, all of the intra-conference games were close, and many surprising. Wisconsin and Iowa lost, propelling Northwestern to the top of the West division. Minnesota won their first conference game, and Penn State held off a late Iowa attack to remain at least mathematically eligible for the division title.
Pac-12 Report
When the dust settled on Saturday, Washington State was the only team with a single conference loss, Utah had ascended to the top of the South, and Oregon was gone from the division title race. The Pac-12 will definitely not have a playoff team, and it has now become an interesting picture for the division titles.
SEC Report
Many teams had byes, which might be a good thing. Florida got pulverized, A&M (who many of the national analysts were saying would not lose another game) was completely dominated by Mississippi State, and Vandy shocked Arkansas. Kentucky needed a last-second push to win their game. Now, the West will clearly be determined by next week's Alabama-LSU bout and the East will likely be owned by the winner of next week's Georgia-Kentucky battle.
ACC Report
Two weeks ago NC State was unbeaten, now they have lost two conference games. Two years ago Florida State won ten games, now they suffered their worst loss in school history. Duke, Miami, and Virginia Tech all fell, making Virginia and Pitt the front-runners in the Coastal division. Boston College has proven themselves a force in the conference, and will compete with Clemson for the Atlantic title.
Big XII Report
Texas' loss leaves no team in the conference with an unblemished conference record. Texas holds the tiebreaker against Oklahoma, and could get one over West Virginia this week. The Mountaineers control their own destiny, as they are yet to play both of their one-conference-loss rivals.
Upsets abounded in two conferences: Big Ten and Pac-12. Colorado gave up a large fourth quarter lead to Oregon State while Oregon never got anything going against Arizona. As I will discuss in my Big Ten Report, that conference looked like the days of yore, when any team could beat any other team on any given Saturday.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (8-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [8]
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [10]
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2) [12]
11. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-1) [14]
12. Washington State Cougars (7-1) [15]
13. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) [9]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1) [17]
15. Utah State Aggies (7-1) [18]
16. Florida Gators (6-2) [11]
17. Syracuse Orange (6-2) [23]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) [19]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [13]
20. Kentucky Wildcats (7-1) [22]
21. Houston Cougars (7-1) [24]
22. UAB Blazers (7-1) [NR]
23. Boston College Eagles (6-2) [NR]
24. Boise State Broncos (5-2) [NR]
25. Utah Utes (6-2) [NR]
Dropped off: Wisconsin Badgers [#16], Washington Huskies [#20], Miami Hurricanes [#21], Oregon Ducks [#25]
On the Edge: Buffalo Bulls (7-1), Virginia Cavaliers (6-2), Army Black Knights (6-2), North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Georgia Southern Eagles (7-1), Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-3), Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-2), Temple Owls (5-3)
With four weeks still to play, there are too many scenarios to accurately predict divisional races. I'll start that next week.
Big Ten Report
Man, it felt like the 70's and early 80's, as records didn't matter and players threw themselves at opponents. Aside from Maryland's rout of Illinois, all of the intra-conference games were close, and many surprising. Wisconsin and Iowa lost, propelling Northwestern to the top of the West division. Minnesota won their first conference game, and Penn State held off a late Iowa attack to remain at least mathematically eligible for the division title.
Pac-12 Report
When the dust settled on Saturday, Washington State was the only team with a single conference loss, Utah had ascended to the top of the South, and Oregon was gone from the division title race. The Pac-12 will definitely not have a playoff team, and it has now become an interesting picture for the division titles.
SEC Report
Many teams had byes, which might be a good thing. Florida got pulverized, A&M (who many of the national analysts were saying would not lose another game) was completely dominated by Mississippi State, and Vandy shocked Arkansas. Kentucky needed a last-second push to win their game. Now, the West will clearly be determined by next week's Alabama-LSU bout and the East will likely be owned by the winner of next week's Georgia-Kentucky battle.
ACC Report
Two weeks ago NC State was unbeaten, now they have lost two conference games. Two years ago Florida State won ten games, now they suffered their worst loss in school history. Duke, Miami, and Virginia Tech all fell, making Virginia and Pitt the front-runners in the Coastal division. Boston College has proven themselves a force in the conference, and will compete with Clemson for the Atlantic title.
Big XII Report
Texas' loss leaves no team in the conference with an unblemished conference record. Texas holds the tiebreaker against Oklahoma, and could get one over West Virginia this week. The Mountaineers control their own destiny, as they are yet to play both of their one-conference-loss rivals.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 9 picks
We're getting more Thursday and Friday games as we approach the Thanksgiving finale weekend.
Thurs Oct 25
Baylor Bears at #14 West Virginia Mountaineers: Baylor is having a tough time in the conference this season. Was it just two years ago that Baylor was a playoff contender? Wow, what a difference. WEST VIRGINIA
Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos: Toledo is another team who frequently challenges for their conference title, and is struggling this season. Western Michigan did not start the season well, but they have come on in recent weeks. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles: The Mountaineers are nationally ranked for the first time in their FBS history. The Mountaineers have challenged (and even beaten) Power Five conference heavyweights. This is a fierce team. The Eagles are doing well in the conference, and co-lead the division with Appalachian State, but they don't operate on the same level. The Mountaineers will take the division lead with this win. APPALACHIAN STATE
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies: Georgia Tech is having trouble holding onto the ball. Virginia Tech makes the most of turnovers. This is a game that plays into that strength. VIRGINIA TECH
Fri Oct 26
#21 Miami Hurricanes at Boston College Eagles: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Miami has the defense, while BC has the offense. Normally I pick the defense in situations like that, but some chaos in the starting ranks of Miami, and shifting people around, makes them vulnerable in a high-energy environment like Boston. I smell an upset here. BOSTON COLLEGE
Indiana Hoosiers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota cannot seem to get their footing in Big Ten conference play. Indiana has some strong players, and can move the ball well. While I think Minnesota will eventually get it together, and this game might be the opportunity to do that, I think Indiana has the edge. INDIANA
Utah Utes at UCLA Bruins: UCLA won their second game of the season last week, but I don't think we have seen the beginning of their revitalization. UTAH
Sat Oct 27
Top 25
#2 Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles: Clemson has both the top offense and top defense in the ACC. That's a potent combination, more than Florida State can handle. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen: Navy has had a tough time this season. They've played some tough opponents close, and then fell badly against others. Their ground game still works, but their runners aren't hitting the holes as quickly as they should. Notre Dame's defense will seal those holes quickly. NOTRE DAME
Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas State has floundered in conference play, while the Sooners have bounced back well from the close loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners want a chance to face Texas again in the conference championship game, and each victory is a step closer. One step... OKLAHOMA
#11 Florida Gators at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Florida was not expected to do so well this season, and they have wildly exceeded expectations. They are no longer a surprise, though, and a forewarned Bulldogs team has the strength to stop them. This game could be an upset, though, if Florida still has some surprises up their sleeves. GEORGIA
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes at #12 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is favored in this game, but the Nittany Lions have not seemed to fully recover from their loss to Ohio State. With Purdue's upset of them, will that even make them question their ability further? Nobody seems to give Iowa credit for their achievements, and underestimated them may lead to Penn State's loss. IOWA
#13 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys have been a bit of a disappointment this season, while the Longhorns have bounced back strongly from their opening week loss. They see a chance to win the conference for the first time in a long time, and that goal motivates them. TEXAS
#15 Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal: This is a crucial game for the Cougars. If they want any shot at the playoffs, they must not only win all of their remaining games, they need to impress against strong teams like Stanford. Unfortunately, I don't think Stanford will comply. I think the Cougars will win, but it will a late fourth quarter comeback and may reduce their stock. WASHINGTON STATE
#16 Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats have been a force within the conference, but their play has been too inconsistent for me to confidently believe they will win here. They could cause an upset, as they are prone to do a couple of times a year, but I have to favor the pace and power of Wisconsin. WISCONSIN
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at #17 Fresno State Bulldogs: Hawaii is another team that started the year strong, but have had trouble retaining that. Fresno State has been bullish (excuse the pun) on defense, allowing a TOTAL of 13 points in THREE Mountain West contests. It's the type of performance rare in the offensive-happy Mountain West, but a formula that works for the Bulldogs. FRESNO STATE
New Mexico Lobos at #18 Utah State Aggies: We go from the best defense in the conference to the best offense in the conference, located in Utah. The Aggies are lighting up the scoreboard and leaving trails of dust behind beleaguered defenders. The Lobos will simply be their next victims. UTAH STATE
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs: The Bearcats suffered their first defeat of the season last week, but that might actually help them. They probably would not have gotten past UCF, and they had little hope at the playoffs, so now the pressure of perfection is off their backs and they can focus on playing outstanding football, something the Mustangs haven't really been able to do most of the season. CINCINNATI
#20 Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: You always have to watch out playing Cal at home, but this season they haven't been too much of a threat. Should be a pretty easy victory. WASHINGTON
#22 Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers: Kentucky had a bit of a struggle last week, but they should have it easier against Mizzou, who haven't won a conference game yet. A win here will put Kentucky in a tie for the division lead with the winner of the Florida-Georgia contest, and Kentucky already beat Florida. I know who the Wildcats are rooting for in that game! KENTUCKY
NC State Wolf Pack at #23 Syracuse Orange: NC State wants a nice win to wash out the stink of the debacle against Clemson, but I don't think they'll get it. Clemson exposed the holes on the Wolf Pack team, and I'm sure Syracuse was watching. SYRACUSE
South Florida Bulls at #24 Houston Cougars: This game is likely to be really close! The Bulls have a good defense, but is it strong enough to hold back the offensive onslaught of the Cougars? I don't think so. HOUSTON
#25 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats: Oregon needs to have a bounce back game. Arizona may seem ripe, but truthfully these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Oregon may have some trouble here, but they simply have enough offensive tools to prevail in the fourth quarter. OREGON
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans: Purdue's upset over Ohio State extended their winning streak to four games, the second longest in the conference behind Michigan. However, I think that streak will end. The Spartans are not winning big, but they find ways to win. MICHIGAN STATE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins: Illinois has collapsed, allowing Maryland a chance to get their first winning record against conference opponents this late in the season. MARYLAND
Other Games of Interest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers: North Carolina and Virginia have taken different tracks this season. North Carolina is at the bottom of the Coastal division, and have won only one game this season. Virginia is in second place in the division, having lost only one conference game. This game will be a reflection of those two disparage experiences. VIRGINIA
Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mississippi State has struggled in the conference after a great non-conference start. The Aggies have done well, but when they lose, they lose big. That doesn't seem too likely in this game. This one should be close, and close games seem to be the Aggies' comfort zone this season. TEXAS A&M
UAB Blazers at UTEP Miners: UTEP has yet to win a game this season. Playing the top team in the conference? Not the place to get that first win. UAB
Thurs Oct 25
Baylor Bears at #14 West Virginia Mountaineers: Baylor is having a tough time in the conference this season. Was it just two years ago that Baylor was a playoff contender? Wow, what a difference. WEST VIRGINIA
Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan Broncos: Toledo is another team who frequently challenges for their conference title, and is struggling this season. Western Michigan did not start the season well, but they have come on in recent weeks. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern Eagles: The Mountaineers are nationally ranked for the first time in their FBS history. The Mountaineers have challenged (and even beaten) Power Five conference heavyweights. This is a fierce team. The Eagles are doing well in the conference, and co-lead the division with Appalachian State, but they don't operate on the same level. The Mountaineers will take the division lead with this win. APPALACHIAN STATE
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies: Georgia Tech is having trouble holding onto the ball. Virginia Tech makes the most of turnovers. This is a game that plays into that strength. VIRGINIA TECH
Fri Oct 26
#21 Miami Hurricanes at Boston College Eagles: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Miami has the defense, while BC has the offense. Normally I pick the defense in situations like that, but some chaos in the starting ranks of Miami, and shifting people around, makes them vulnerable in a high-energy environment like Boston. I smell an upset here. BOSTON COLLEGE
Indiana Hoosiers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota cannot seem to get their footing in Big Ten conference play. Indiana has some strong players, and can move the ball well. While I think Minnesota will eventually get it together, and this game might be the opportunity to do that, I think Indiana has the edge. INDIANA
Utah Utes at UCLA Bruins: UCLA won their second game of the season last week, but I don't think we have seen the beginning of their revitalization. UTAH
Sat Oct 27
Top 25
#2 Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles: Clemson has both the top offense and top defense in the ACC. That's a potent combination, more than Florida State can handle. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen: Navy has had a tough time this season. They've played some tough opponents close, and then fell badly against others. Their ground game still works, but their runners aren't hitting the holes as quickly as they should. Notre Dame's defense will seal those holes quickly. NOTRE DAME
Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas State has floundered in conference play, while the Sooners have bounced back well from the close loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners want a chance to face Texas again in the conference championship game, and each victory is a step closer. One step... OKLAHOMA
#11 Florida Gators at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Florida was not expected to do so well this season, and they have wildly exceeded expectations. They are no longer a surprise, though, and a forewarned Bulldogs team has the strength to stop them. This game could be an upset, though, if Florida still has some surprises up their sleeves. GEORGIA
#9 Iowa Hawkeyes at #12 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is favored in this game, but the Nittany Lions have not seemed to fully recover from their loss to Ohio State. With Purdue's upset of them, will that even make them question their ability further? Nobody seems to give Iowa credit for their achievements, and underestimated them may lead to Penn State's loss. IOWA
#13 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys have been a bit of a disappointment this season, while the Longhorns have bounced back strongly from their opening week loss. They see a chance to win the conference for the first time in a long time, and that goal motivates them. TEXAS
#15 Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal: This is a crucial game for the Cougars. If they want any shot at the playoffs, they must not only win all of their remaining games, they need to impress against strong teams like Stanford. Unfortunately, I don't think Stanford will comply. I think the Cougars will win, but it will a late fourth quarter comeback and may reduce their stock. WASHINGTON STATE
#16 Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats have been a force within the conference, but their play has been too inconsistent for me to confidently believe they will win here. They could cause an upset, as they are prone to do a couple of times a year, but I have to favor the pace and power of Wisconsin. WISCONSIN
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at #17 Fresno State Bulldogs: Hawaii is another team that started the year strong, but have had trouble retaining that. Fresno State has been bullish (excuse the pun) on defense, allowing a TOTAL of 13 points in THREE Mountain West contests. It's the type of performance rare in the offensive-happy Mountain West, but a formula that works for the Bulldogs. FRESNO STATE
New Mexico Lobos at #18 Utah State Aggies: We go from the best defense in the conference to the best offense in the conference, located in Utah. The Aggies are lighting up the scoreboard and leaving trails of dust behind beleaguered defenders. The Lobos will simply be their next victims. UTAH STATE
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs: The Bearcats suffered their first defeat of the season last week, but that might actually help them. They probably would not have gotten past UCF, and they had little hope at the playoffs, so now the pressure of perfection is off their backs and they can focus on playing outstanding football, something the Mustangs haven't really been able to do most of the season. CINCINNATI
#20 Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: You always have to watch out playing Cal at home, but this season they haven't been too much of a threat. Should be a pretty easy victory. WASHINGTON
#22 Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers: Kentucky had a bit of a struggle last week, but they should have it easier against Mizzou, who haven't won a conference game yet. A win here will put Kentucky in a tie for the division lead with the winner of the Florida-Georgia contest, and Kentucky already beat Florida. I know who the Wildcats are rooting for in that game! KENTUCKY
NC State Wolf Pack at #23 Syracuse Orange: NC State wants a nice win to wash out the stink of the debacle against Clemson, but I don't think they'll get it. Clemson exposed the holes on the Wolf Pack team, and I'm sure Syracuse was watching. SYRACUSE
South Florida Bulls at #24 Houston Cougars: This game is likely to be really close! The Bulls have a good defense, but is it strong enough to hold back the offensive onslaught of the Cougars? I don't think so. HOUSTON
#25 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats: Oregon needs to have a bounce back game. Arizona may seem ripe, but truthfully these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Oregon may have some trouble here, but they simply have enough offensive tools to prevail in the fourth quarter. OREGON
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans: Purdue's upset over Ohio State extended their winning streak to four games, the second longest in the conference behind Michigan. However, I think that streak will end. The Spartans are not winning big, but they find ways to win. MICHIGAN STATE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins: Illinois has collapsed, allowing Maryland a chance to get their first winning record against conference opponents this late in the season. MARYLAND
Other Games of Interest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers: North Carolina and Virginia have taken different tracks this season. North Carolina is at the bottom of the Coastal division, and have won only one game this season. Virginia is in second place in the division, having lost only one conference game. This game will be a reflection of those two disparage experiences. VIRGINIA
Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mississippi State has struggled in the conference after a great non-conference start. The Aggies have done well, but when they lose, they lose big. That doesn't seem too likely in this game. This one should be close, and close games seem to be the Aggies' comfort zone this season. TEXAS A&M
UAB Blazers at UTEP Miners: UTEP has yet to win a game this season. Playing the top team in the conference? Not the place to get that first win. UAB
Sunday, October 21, 2018
NCAA Football Week 8 results and Top 25
Two more unbeatens lost perfection, leaving just five. Only two of them are in Power 5 conferences, while two are in the American Athletic and the other, Notre Dame, is an independent. This does improve Notre Dame's chances of making the College Football Playoffs, especially since they won't be facing a ranked team for the rest of the year, and their biggest challenge remaining may be Syracuse.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (7-0) [3]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) [4]
4. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [5]
5. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [8]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [2]
9. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) [9]
10. LSU Tigers (7-1) [11]
11. Florida Gators (6-1) [10]
12. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2) [13]
13. Texas Longhorns (6-1) [14]
14. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [15]
15. Washington State Cougars (6-1) [NR]
16. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [19]
17. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1) [20]
18. Utah State Aggies (6-1 [NR]
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [17]
20. Washington Huskies (6-2) [25]
21. Miami Hurricanes (5-2) [21]
22. Kentucky Wildcats (6-1) [22]
23. Syracuse Orange (5-2) [23]
24. Houston Cougars (6-1) [NR]
25. Oregon Ducks (5-2) [12]
Dropped off: Colorado Buffaloes [#16], NC State Wolf Pack [#18], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#24]
On the Edge: Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-1), South Florida Bulls (7-0), Buffalo Bulls 7-1), UAB Blazers (6-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Temple Owls (5-3)
Big Ten Report
Ohio State was blown away by Purdue and has thrown open the Conference Championship. Michigan now leads the East and is the only realistic hope to reach the playoffs -- they must win out to do so. Michigan next hosts Penn State (after a bye) and has two easy games before traveling to Columbus to face Ohio State. Under Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes get tougher after their first loss, so Ohio State may knock off Michigan and, for the second straight year, leave the Big Ten champion out of the playoffs (of course, an unbeaten Notre Dame will help that).
Northwestern still leads the West by half a game, but truly this division is Wisconsin's to win. The Badgers hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, so if they win out, they win the division. Iowa is the stronger team, though, so one slip by Wisconsin opens the door for the Hawkeyes to advance. The Badgers have the easier schedule, so they really have the advantage.
Nebraska won their first game of the season by upsetting Minnesota. That puts the Gophers at the bottom of the West, and the only team in the division who is winless in conference play. Rutgers now becomes the worst team in the conference, and likely to stay that way.
Pac-12 Report
Washington State's dismantling of Oregon makes them the only Pac-12 candidate to reach the playoffs, and it's a long shot. Washington still leads the North by half a game, and these two don't meet until the last week of the season, so we may not know how the division will lay out until then. The Cougars also need to get past Stanford and Colorado before then.
Colorado's loss to Washington gives Utah the South division lead, and they seem poised to keep it. The Utes' biggest challenge will be against the Buffaloes, and they have to travel to Colorado. The winner of that game likely wins the division.
SEC Report
A 3-way logjam appears at the top of the East division, with Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia all with a piece of the action. Kentucky beat Florida and Georgia is yet to play any of them. The next two weeks sees Georgia face Florida, then Kentucky, so the division picture might come in much clearer then.
Alabama basically has a lock on the West. They've already beaten LSU and A&M, the only other teams with any shot at the division. Even if Bama loses the Iron Bowl, they'll have the division locked up by then.
ACC Report
Clemson demolished NC State, basically assuring them the Atlantic title (and the conference title). They still have to face Boston College, but the crushing Tiger defense gives them a huge edge.
Big XII Report
Texas seems likely to win this conference. Their only real challenge remaining is West Virginia. Whether Texas can make the playoffs depends upon their performance against their conference opponents, and how those opponents show up in their remaining games. Strength of schedule is not on Texas' side, especially the more Maryland loses to tarnish the Longhorns' sole loss of the season.
Group of Five Report
UCF wants a shot at the playoffs, but the committee is likely to take a one-loss Ohio State or Michigan team, or even a one-loss Texas team, over the Golden Knights. Not fair, but that's the way it goes. Temple is proving a real threat within the conference, and the showdown with South Florida remains. Houston seems likely to win the West division, and they could make the conference title game interesting.
UAB beat North Texas to take the Conference USA West lead, and became the favorite to win the conference. The 6-1 Blazers are starting off hotter than they have in over a decade, and makes two teams to watch in the state of Alabama.
Western Michigan may lead the MAC West with an unbeaten conference record, but East-leading Buffalo remains the favorite in this conference. Quite a feat for a team who looked pathetic for the first few years they played in this conference.
Utah State reached the Top 25 with an impressive victory, and lead the Mountain division. Fresno State leads the West, and sets up an interesting contest if Utah State can run the table and meet them in the conference championship.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (7-0) [3]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) [4]
4. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [5]
5. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [8]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [2]
9. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) [9]
10. LSU Tigers (7-1) [11]
11. Florida Gators (6-1) [10]
12. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2) [13]
13. Texas Longhorns (6-1) [14]
14. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [15]
15. Washington State Cougars (6-1) [NR]
16. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [19]
17. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1) [20]
18. Utah State Aggies (6-1 [NR]
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [17]
20. Washington Huskies (6-2) [25]
21. Miami Hurricanes (5-2) [21]
22. Kentucky Wildcats (6-1) [22]
23. Syracuse Orange (5-2) [23]
24. Houston Cougars (6-1) [NR]
25. Oregon Ducks (5-2) [12]
Dropped off: Colorado Buffaloes [#16], NC State Wolf Pack [#18], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#24]
On the Edge: Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-1), South Florida Bulls (7-0), Buffalo Bulls 7-1), UAB Blazers (6-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Temple Owls (5-3)
Big Ten Report
Ohio State was blown away by Purdue and has thrown open the Conference Championship. Michigan now leads the East and is the only realistic hope to reach the playoffs -- they must win out to do so. Michigan next hosts Penn State (after a bye) and has two easy games before traveling to Columbus to face Ohio State. Under Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes get tougher after their first loss, so Ohio State may knock off Michigan and, for the second straight year, leave the Big Ten champion out of the playoffs (of course, an unbeaten Notre Dame will help that).
Northwestern still leads the West by half a game, but truly this division is Wisconsin's to win. The Badgers hold the tiebreaker against Iowa, so if they win out, they win the division. Iowa is the stronger team, though, so one slip by Wisconsin opens the door for the Hawkeyes to advance. The Badgers have the easier schedule, so they really have the advantage.
Nebraska won their first game of the season by upsetting Minnesota. That puts the Gophers at the bottom of the West, and the only team in the division who is winless in conference play. Rutgers now becomes the worst team in the conference, and likely to stay that way.
Pac-12 Report
Washington State's dismantling of Oregon makes them the only Pac-12 candidate to reach the playoffs, and it's a long shot. Washington still leads the North by half a game, and these two don't meet until the last week of the season, so we may not know how the division will lay out until then. The Cougars also need to get past Stanford and Colorado before then.
Colorado's loss to Washington gives Utah the South division lead, and they seem poised to keep it. The Utes' biggest challenge will be against the Buffaloes, and they have to travel to Colorado. The winner of that game likely wins the division.
SEC Report
A 3-way logjam appears at the top of the East division, with Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia all with a piece of the action. Kentucky beat Florida and Georgia is yet to play any of them. The next two weeks sees Georgia face Florida, then Kentucky, so the division picture might come in much clearer then.
Alabama basically has a lock on the West. They've already beaten LSU and A&M, the only other teams with any shot at the division. Even if Bama loses the Iron Bowl, they'll have the division locked up by then.
ACC Report
Clemson demolished NC State, basically assuring them the Atlantic title (and the conference title). They still have to face Boston College, but the crushing Tiger defense gives them a huge edge.
Big XII Report
Texas seems likely to win this conference. Their only real challenge remaining is West Virginia. Whether Texas can make the playoffs depends upon their performance against their conference opponents, and how those opponents show up in their remaining games. Strength of schedule is not on Texas' side, especially the more Maryland loses to tarnish the Longhorns' sole loss of the season.
Group of Five Report
UCF wants a shot at the playoffs, but the committee is likely to take a one-loss Ohio State or Michigan team, or even a one-loss Texas team, over the Golden Knights. Not fair, but that's the way it goes. Temple is proving a real threat within the conference, and the showdown with South Florida remains. Houston seems likely to win the West division, and they could make the conference title game interesting.
UAB beat North Texas to take the Conference USA West lead, and became the favorite to win the conference. The 6-1 Blazers are starting off hotter than they have in over a decade, and makes two teams to watch in the state of Alabama.
Western Michigan may lead the MAC West with an unbeaten conference record, but East-leading Buffalo remains the favorite in this conference. Quite a feat for a team who looked pathetic for the first few years they played in this conference.
Utah State reached the Top 25 with an impressive victory, and lead the Mountain division. Fresno State leads the West, and sets up an interesting contest if Utah State can run the table and meet them in the conference championship.
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