Most of the playoff spots are set, but many teams are vying for position. Only New Orleans and Dallas can relax, and neither of their owners want them to do so. We'll see what actually happens.
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: DeSean Jackson has publicly cried to leave Tampa, which creates some tension in the locker room. Not that they were likely to win this game, anyway. FALCONS, 24-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: I think some key offensive players will take a break this game, but the Saints defense should push the Panthers enough to win this game. The Panthers have not played well against tough defenses, and the Saints have a good one this season. SAINTS, 20-16
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Despite the opinion of Jerry Jones, I think the Cowboys will rest some players this game, which will be the opening the Giants need to finish with a win. The Giants have found some life since Odell Beckham Jr challenged them after Week 8, and they want to end strong. GIANTS, 23-16
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: The Packers are banged up, but they won't slack off. After all, they have the entire off-season to heal. They don't want to finish with nine losses, so they will fight. When the Pack really wants to win, they'll find a way to do that. PACK, 23-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have a shot at a bye week, so they want this win. They won't rest, figuring a win will help them get an extra week of rest, so the Jags will have their hands full. Deshaun Watson has sparked the Texans offense, and with their stiff defense, this team is definitely a Super Bowl contender, especially since both the Chiefs and Chargers have exposed vulnerabilities in recent weeks. TEXANS, 24-16
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: The big question for the Bills is do you give Josh Allen more playing time, or let him rest his injured body? I'd keep him on the sidelines, as I don't think the Bills will win anyway. At this point, their better move is to improve their draft position and get a good burly offensive lineman. DOLPHINS, 23-13
New York Jets at New England Patriots: The Patriots are also playing for a potential bye week, so they won't rest. Of course, this is a Bill Belichick team -- they don't understand the meaning of "rest" anyway. The Jets will certainly battle. They often do against the Pats, and Sam Darnold has been looking better. PATS, 27-21
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are already in the playoffs, but they want a win to stay in fifth position. They don't want to travel to New Orleans; they'd rather play either the Rams or the Bears. With their defense, that bodes ill for the offensively-challenged Cardinals. SEAHAWKS, 24-13
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: This is one of the most crucial games of the weekend. The Vikings are playing for a playoff berth. The Bears are playing for a potential first week bye. This one will be a real battle. That's when defense becomes important, and that's the Bears strength this season. BEARS, 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh needs a win and a Ravens loss to win the division. That's the only way they're getting into the playoffs. They can hope Cleveland, with Baker Mayfield at the helm, will surprise Baltimore (see the next game). For their part, Big Ben and the Steelers will pulverize the Bengals to give them a chance. STEELERS, 26-20
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: How important has Baker Mayfield been to this team? They have the potential to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007, Derek Anderson's first season. They have to get past the Ravens to do it, though, and the Ravens want to win to ensure the division title and playoff spot. I think they'll get that win, but the Browns won't make it easy. RAVENS, 26-23
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: What's at stake in the AFC West? The division winner is the top seed in the AFC, the runner-up is the fourth seed. The Chargers want that title, and a win here is required. Defensively, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Offensively, not so much. If Rivers and company do not make any mistakes, they should win this game. CHARGERS, 28-24
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: It's pretty easy for the Chiefs; win, and they are the top AFC seed. That should be sufficient motivation for Patrick Mahomes and company. The Raiders defense is okay but not quick, and the Chiefs are a fast-paced offenses. This should go their way. CHIEFS, 30-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: The Eagles are hoping the Chicago Bears win, giving the Eagles a chance to secure a playoff spot with a win. With Nick Foles generating some magic, they might do that. If the Eagles are already eliminated, they may relax enough to allow Washington to win, but I'm not sure Nick Foles knows how to relax. EAGLES, 24-21
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: The Rams need a win to secure a first week bye, especially if the Bears have already won earlier in the day. The 49ers offense has been getting a bit better recently, but they are yet to win on the road this season, and I think the Rams will continue that streak. RAMS, 30-20
Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The last game of the season determines the last playoff spot in the AFC. While a Texans loss could give the Colts a shot at the division title, it is more likely that this game determines who occupies the sixth AFC seed. The Titans have the defense, the Colts have the offense, and the Titans have a great home record. Marcus Mariota has pledged to do everything he can to play this game, but that might be a mistake. If he rushes his return, he might do himself more harm (see Robert Griffin III). Could Tennessee win without him? Possibly. The Colts seem more stoked for this game, but this one could really go either way. COLTS, 24-23
Thursday, December 27, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Bowl picks III
As I type this, I have lost the last three bowl games, and I am losing the Independence Bowl. That might not be the best omen for typing this post, but I'm doing it anyway!
Sat Dec 29
Cotton Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) v #2 Clemson Tigers (13-0) : I picked Clemson originally, but they are lacking some players due to drug problems. Could that be enough for Notre Dame to win? I'm going to stick with my original pick, but this one could seriously go the other way. CLEMSON
Orange Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #6 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) : The Tide are missing some players due to violations of team rules, but they have such a talented bench that it won't chance things much; it just might make the game a little closer. ALABAMA
Mon Dec 31
Military Bowl: #15 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : It was a disappointing year for the Hokies this year. How they made it to a New Years Eve bowl shows how highly people hold the program; their on-field performance certainly didn't earn it. This should be an easy win for the Bearcats. CINCINNATI
Sun Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (8-4) v Pittsburgh Panthers (7-6) : Pitt won the ACC Coastal division, but their non-conference performance was atrocious. Somehow I see that repeating here. Stanford has a tough year, but their talent is still intact, and they should outplay the Panthers. STANFORD
Santa Clara Bowl: Michigan State Spartans (7-5) v Oregon Ducks (8-4) : The Spartans are often unpredictable, but they will be missing some key players who are skipping this bowl, which makes their attack less potent. For the Ducks, they feel very comfortable with their offense now. It took some time to get their this season, but now their attack is pretty fierce. OREGON
Liberty Bowl: Missouri Tigers (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : Another 6-6 team who should be playing earlier, the Cowboys at least have a bit more going for them than the Hokies. That still won't assure them a victory. MISSOURI
Holiday Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) v Utah Utes (8-4) : Northwestern didn't win a non-conference game, but they didn't have themselves coordinated yet. They just got better as the season wore on. That makes them a serious threat against Utah, who has a wide and diverse playbook. If they can keep Northwestern on their toes, the Utes can win. If Northwestern starts to figure them out, the Wildcats will prevail. UTAH
Gator Bowl: #25 North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) v Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) : NC State had an excellent season, and I see that extending to this bowl game. The Aggies were too inconsistent to count on, while the Wolfpack showed strength. Their defense is potent, and the Aggies tend to fold under stiff pressure. NC STATE
Tues Jan 1
Outback Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) : Both of these teams had strong games, and then would falter badly. Who wins may depend upon which team shows up -- the talented team that often performs, or the bunch of bumblers who sometimes bubble up. For a bowl game, I think both teams will make an effort to show up strong. For Iowa, that's a decent offense that has few turnovers matched with a strong defense. The Aggies aren't too great on defense. Their offense has flashes of brilliance, but they can't always sustain that. IOWA
Fiesta Bowl: #16 LSU Tigers (9-3) v #4 UCF Golden Knights (12-0) : Once again, the playoff committee ignored the Knights. At least this time there were three other unbeaten teams, so the slight isn't so obvious. Still, it's enough to motivate the Golden Knights, who will go out and earn their second "National Co-Champion" designation. UCF
Citrus Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) v #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Despite their record, the Wildcats are not so good. Their offense has holes, their record is padded by playing weak non-conference opponents. Penn State, on the other hand, has strong squads at all phases, including special teams. PENN STATE
Rose Bowl: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) v #22 Washington Huskies (10-3) : Ohio State did not win many games in impressive fashion, but they won every game except one. They start slow, but the second half is theirs to command. The Huskies won the Pac-12, mostly on the strength of their defense. The Buckeyes defense this year is not as strong as usual, but the offense makes dangerous. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl: #18 Texas Longhorns (9-4) v #7 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) : The Big XII winner and SEC winner face off in the Orange Bowl, and their runners-up face off here. Unfortunately for the Big XII Conference, the SEC team is the clear favorite, and this one won't likely be as close as the Orange Bowl. GEORGIA
Sat Dec 29
Cotton Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) v #2 Clemson Tigers (13-0) : I picked Clemson originally, but they are lacking some players due to drug problems. Could that be enough for Notre Dame to win? I'm going to stick with my original pick, but this one could seriously go the other way. CLEMSON
Orange Bowl - National Championship Semifinal game : #6 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) : The Tide are missing some players due to violations of team rules, but they have such a talented bench that it won't chance things much; it just might make the game a little closer. ALABAMA
Mon Dec 31
Military Bowl: #15 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : It was a disappointing year for the Hokies this year. How they made it to a New Years Eve bowl shows how highly people hold the program; their on-field performance certainly didn't earn it. This should be an easy win for the Bearcats. CINCINNATI
Sun Bowl: Stanford Cardinal (8-4) v Pittsburgh Panthers (7-6) : Pitt won the ACC Coastal division, but their non-conference performance was atrocious. Somehow I see that repeating here. Stanford has a tough year, but their talent is still intact, and they should outplay the Panthers. STANFORD
Santa Clara Bowl: Michigan State Spartans (7-5) v Oregon Ducks (8-4) : The Spartans are often unpredictable, but they will be missing some key players who are skipping this bowl, which makes their attack less potent. For the Ducks, they feel very comfortable with their offense now. It took some time to get their this season, but now their attack is pretty fierce. OREGON
Liberty Bowl: Missouri Tigers (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : Another 6-6 team who should be playing earlier, the Cowboys at least have a bit more going for them than the Hokies. That still won't assure them a victory. MISSOURI
Holiday Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats (8-5) v Utah Utes (8-4) : Northwestern didn't win a non-conference game, but they didn't have themselves coordinated yet. They just got better as the season wore on. That makes them a serious threat against Utah, who has a wide and diverse playbook. If they can keep Northwestern on their toes, the Utes can win. If Northwestern starts to figure them out, the Wildcats will prevail. UTAH
Gator Bowl: #25 North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) v Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) : NC State had an excellent season, and I see that extending to this bowl game. The Aggies were too inconsistent to count on, while the Wolfpack showed strength. Their defense is potent, and the Aggies tend to fold under stiff pressure. NC STATE
Tues Jan 1
Outback Bowl: Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v #19 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) : Both of these teams had strong games, and then would falter badly. Who wins may depend upon which team shows up -- the talented team that often performs, or the bunch of bumblers who sometimes bubble up. For a bowl game, I think both teams will make an effort to show up strong. For Iowa, that's a decent offense that has few turnovers matched with a strong defense. The Aggies aren't too great on defense. Their offense has flashes of brilliance, but they can't always sustain that. IOWA
Fiesta Bowl: #16 LSU Tigers (9-3) v #4 UCF Golden Knights (12-0) : Once again, the playoff committee ignored the Knights. At least this time there were three other unbeaten teams, so the slight isn't so obvious. Still, it's enough to motivate the Golden Knights, who will go out and earn their second "National Co-Champion" designation. UCF
Citrus Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats (9-3) v #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Despite their record, the Wildcats are not so good. Their offense has holes, their record is padded by playing weak non-conference opponents. Penn State, on the other hand, has strong squads at all phases, including special teams. PENN STATE
Rose Bowl: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) v #22 Washington Huskies (10-3) : Ohio State did not win many games in impressive fashion, but they won every game except one. They start slow, but the second half is theirs to command. The Huskies won the Pac-12, mostly on the strength of their defense. The Buckeyes defense this year is not as strong as usual, but the offense makes dangerous. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl: #18 Texas Longhorns (9-4) v #7 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) : The Big XII winner and SEC winner face off in the Orange Bowl, and their runners-up face off here. Unfortunately for the Big XII Conference, the SEC team is the clear favorite, and this one won't likely be as close as the Orange Bowl. GEORGIA
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
NFL 2018 Week 16 picks
Saturday games
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: The Redskins have the talent to do well, but they seem confused and out of sync on the field. That's precisely the opportunity that the Titans' defense loves to exploit. TITANS, 23-17
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: The Ravens are a strong team that loses close games. This one is likely to be a close game, which gives the edge to the Chargers. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: When Atlanta has it together, they are a tough team. They've had trouble getting it together this season, though. Carolina hasn't been too consistent, either, but they have had better luck getting it together than the Falcons have. PANTHERS, 26-24
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: New England has shown some unusual vulnerabilities this season, but they are still a powerful force in the AFC East. The Bills offense has struggled greatly, which reduces their threat level. PATRIOTS, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: This game is a reflection of opposing directions. The Bengals, commonly a regular season threat, have faltered badly this season. The Browns, normally dwelling near the bottom of the league, has been given new life, thanks greatly to new QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has grown into this job, which encourages me to give them the edge in this game. BROWNS, 28-27
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: The Packers are another traditionally competitive team who is struggling, but the Jets are struggling even more. QB Sam Darnold is learning, but he back-pedals sometimes. His time this game might be best spent observing how Aaron Rodgers operates; perhaps Darnold can pick up some pointers. He won't pick up a win. PACKERS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but they need to win out. The Texans are going to make that a difficult prospect. Between their defense, and excellent play by Deshaun Watson, the Texans are stiff competition. TEXANS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Neither of these teams has been the picture of consistency, but the Jags have a greater history of screwing up at crucial points in a game. Miami at least minimizes the number of serious mistakes they make. DOLPHINS, 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Kirk Cousins may not have proven to be the savior the Vikings hoped, but he has kept things interesting. The Lions remain the chronic underachievers that have defined the Matt Stafford era, so Minnesota should win this one. VIKINGS, 27-20
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts: The Giants loss this past week removes any chance of reaching the playoffs. So what will the Giants do now? If they are smart, they start determining who will be the cornerstone of the team next season, and trying different combinations of players. That will produce some unexpected formations and patterns, which might confuse the Colts, but Indy should still emerge victorious. COLTS, 26-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas wants to remain ahead of the Eagles in the division title hunt. The Texans might help them out, but the Cowboys want to do it on their own. That means they will be itching for a win here. COWBOYS, 30-23
Sunday late games
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: The Bears have won their division, so will they slack off? Not now, thanks to the Rams loss. They have a chance to be the second seed in the NFC, gaining a playoff bye week. They want that position, so they want to keep winning. Although the 49ers have lately been looking better, the Bears defense will ensure this victory. BEARS, 27-17
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: That aforementioned loss puts the Rams in a precarious place for playoff seeding, so they know they need even win they can get. Fortunately, the Cardinals should make that easy. RAMS, 34-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: The Steelers will become big Chargers fans on Saturday, rooting for the Chargers to beat the Ravens. However, if they are hoping to turn that loss into a division title, the Saints will have other ideas. The Saints want the top seed in the NFC, and they need to keep winning in order to do that. SAINTS, 30-24
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: The two best teams in the AFC reside in the same division, and another loss by either gives the title to the other. KC will be rooting for Baltimore. If they don't get their wish, they will have to deal with the Seahawks. Winning in Seattle is not easy, but it is easier than it used to be. CHIEFS, 31-26
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver has had its ups and downs, but this has been a rocky first year for Jay Gruden, so I definitely think the visitors have the advantage. BRONCOS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans: The Redskins have the talent to do well, but they seem confused and out of sync on the field. That's precisely the opportunity that the Titans' defense loves to exploit. TITANS, 23-17
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers: The Ravens are a strong team that loses close games. This one is likely to be a close game, which gives the edge to the Chargers. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: When Atlanta has it together, they are a tough team. They've had trouble getting it together this season, though. Carolina hasn't been too consistent, either, but they have had better luck getting it together than the Falcons have. PANTHERS, 26-24
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: New England has shown some unusual vulnerabilities this season, but they are still a powerful force in the AFC East. The Bills offense has struggled greatly, which reduces their threat level. PATRIOTS, 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: This game is a reflection of opposing directions. The Bengals, commonly a regular season threat, have faltered badly this season. The Browns, normally dwelling near the bottom of the league, has been given new life, thanks greatly to new QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has grown into this job, which encourages me to give them the edge in this game. BROWNS, 28-27
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: The Packers are another traditionally competitive team who is struggling, but the Jets are struggling even more. QB Sam Darnold is learning, but he back-pedals sometimes. His time this game might be best spent observing how Aaron Rodgers operates; perhaps Darnold can pick up some pointers. He won't pick up a win. PACKERS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but they need to win out. The Texans are going to make that a difficult prospect. Between their defense, and excellent play by Deshaun Watson, the Texans are stiff competition. TEXANS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Neither of these teams has been the picture of consistency, but the Jags have a greater history of screwing up at crucial points in a game. Miami at least minimizes the number of serious mistakes they make. DOLPHINS, 20-17
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Kirk Cousins may not have proven to be the savior the Vikings hoped, but he has kept things interesting. The Lions remain the chronic underachievers that have defined the Matt Stafford era, so Minnesota should win this one. VIKINGS, 27-20
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts: The Giants loss this past week removes any chance of reaching the playoffs. So what will the Giants do now? If they are smart, they start determining who will be the cornerstone of the team next season, and trying different combinations of players. That will produce some unexpected formations and patterns, which might confuse the Colts, but Indy should still emerge victorious. COLTS, 26-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas wants to remain ahead of the Eagles in the division title hunt. The Texans might help them out, but the Cowboys want to do it on their own. That means they will be itching for a win here. COWBOYS, 30-23
Sunday late games
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: The Bears have won their division, so will they slack off? Not now, thanks to the Rams loss. They have a chance to be the second seed in the NFC, gaining a playoff bye week. They want that position, so they want to keep winning. Although the 49ers have lately been looking better, the Bears defense will ensure this victory. BEARS, 27-17
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: That aforementioned loss puts the Rams in a precarious place for playoff seeding, so they know they need even win they can get. Fortunately, the Cardinals should make that easy. RAMS, 34-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints: The Steelers will become big Chargers fans on Saturday, rooting for the Chargers to beat the Ravens. However, if they are hoping to turn that loss into a division title, the Saints will have other ideas. The Saints want the top seed in the NFC, and they need to keep winning in order to do that. SAINTS, 30-24
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: The two best teams in the AFC reside in the same division, and another loss by either gives the title to the other. KC will be rooting for Baltimore. If they don't get their wish, they will have to deal with the Seahawks. Winning in Seattle is not easy, but it is easier than it used to be. CHIEFS, 31-26
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver has had its ups and downs, but this has been a rocky first year for Jay Gruden, so I definitely think the visitors have the advantage. BRONCOS, 28-20
NCAA Football 2018 Bowl picks part II
[Ed note: We are aware that Christmas Eve is Monday, not Sunday. The correction has been made]
We left off with the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the last bowl game on Friday Dec 21st. This column covers the bowl games into Dec 29th, excluding the National Championship semi-final games.
Sat Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis Tigers (8-5) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) : Wake Forest started out the season hot, but they stumbled badly in conference play. So the question is -- which team will show up? The one that went 3-1 in non-conference play, or the team who crumbled under pressure from quality ACC teams? Memphis certainly won't give them an easy time. The Tigers are a strong team, and got stronger as the season rolled on. That momentum should carry them through this bowl game. MEMPHIS
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston Cougars (8-4) v #21 Army Black Knights (10-2) : Here's a battle of two strong teams. Houston has a fast-paced offense while Army's pounding ground game relies on ball control and time of possession, wearing down opposing defenses. This seems a very good matchup, the kind of quality contests that were common in bowl games in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before corporate sponsorships and conference ties forced favoritism. However, the nature of the Armed Forces Bowl brings in the best of the armed forces academies, so Army definitely has the crowd on their side. That might be enough to propel them to win what might be one of the closest contested bowl games. ARMY
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo Bulls (10-3) v Troy Trojans (9-3) : The Bulls lost the MAC title game on a miraculous drive by Northern Illinois. Until then, they had played brilliantly, proving to be the most dominant team in the MAC. Troy is a good team, especially in bowls, but Buffalo is out to prove their worth. Moreover, they have the emotional support of an unbeaten basketball team as well. BUFFALO
Hawai'i Bowl: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-5) at Hawaii Warriors (8-5) : This game is typically on Christmas Eve, but since that is Monday this year, they play early. That won't bother the Warriors, who are devastating at home. A stronger team would prove a challenge, but Louisiana Tech has only been average this season. The only thing that makes the Bulldogs a threat? They play well in bowl games. They won't play well enough here. HAWAII
Wed Dec 26
First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v #11 Boise State Broncos (10-3) : Boise State nearly won the Mountain West title game. This game won't be as close. BOISE STATE
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) : Here's our first game pitting two Power Five conference teams against each other. Georgia Tech overcame a mediocre first half of the season with some stunning play and excellent performances. Minnesota was a powerhouse in non-conference games, but couldn't compete with the quality teams in the Big Ten. Georgia Tech certainly seems, at least on paper, to be the stronger team, but Minnesota's stiffer conference competition, and strong non-conference record, makes them an interesting upset pick. GEORGIA TECH
Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) v TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) : TCU is one of those teams who I often question whether they should be in a bowl. If you remove their FCS game, they allowed more points than they scored. While Cal was not a stellar team, they certainly performed better than that, and should have enough power to knock off TCU. CAL
Thurs Dec 27
Independence Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) v Duke Blue Devils (7-5) : Duke was a colossus in non-conference play, but conference play demolished them. Temple hovered on the outskirts of the Top 25 rankings for the last few weeks of the season, and that team will certainly pester Duke. TEMPLE
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (7-5) v Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) : Based solely on record, these two teams seem evenly matched. That's where record can be deceiving. Miami accumulated a 4-4 ACC record mostly by beating on weaklings. Wisconsin earned a 5-4 record in the Big Ten and played some hard-fought games. Wisconsin is more battle-hardened, and has the better talent than Miami, especially on defense. WISCONSIN
Texas Bowl: Baylor Bears (6-6) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : This is essentially a home game for the Bears. Talk about favorable conditions! Their offense was weaker than usual, but it's still better than what Vanderbilt will engineer. BAYLOR
Fri Dec 28
Music City Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Auburn Tigers (7-5) : Purdue's upset of Ohio State juvenated them, and they finished strongly. Auburn started strongly, but proved to be lacking against SEC opponents. Purdue stands a real chance to win this game, but Auburn can be determined, especially when representing the SEC. AUBURN
Camping World Bowl: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) v #24 Syracuse Orange (9-3) : By the time this battle of ranked teams occurs, some of the luster may have fallen from Syracuse, as their basketball team is struggling. That doesn't take anything away from what the football accomplished this year. They'd like to culminate that year with a bowl victory, but that may not happen. West Virginia is a strong team who gave a tough battle to Oklahoma. They'll give an equally tough job to Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA
Alamo Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) v #12 Washington State Cougars (10-2) : Washington State was the lone bright spot among the Pac-12, and might be their best chance for a bowl win. Iowa State surprised some Big XII opponents, but they knew those opponents. I don't see Iowa State surprising Washington State. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Dec 29
Peach Bowl: #20 Florida Gators (9-3) v #8 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) : Michigan couldn't overcome their bitter rival, but Michigan has rolled over everyone else since losing a close game to Notre Dame to start the season. While Michigan traditionally has a poor bowl record, I think the Wolverines will win this one. MICHIGAN
Belk Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) v Virginia Cavaliers (7-5) : Virginia is another school who has allowed more points than scored. South Carolina was dominant in their non-conference games, and I see that continuing here. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4) v Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) : It would be nice for Arkansas State to win this game, and close out a successful bowl season for the Sun Belt Conference. However, I think Nevada is just a bit more talented. Arkansas State has a decent bowl history, though, and could pull this one out. NEVADA
We left off with the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, the last bowl game on Friday Dec 21st. This column covers the bowl games into Dec 29th, excluding the National Championship semi-final games.
Sat Dec 22
Birmingham Bowl: Memphis Tigers (8-5) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) : Wake Forest started out the season hot, but they stumbled badly in conference play. So the question is -- which team will show up? The one that went 3-1 in non-conference play, or the team who crumbled under pressure from quality ACC teams? Memphis certainly won't give them an easy time. The Tigers are a strong team, and got stronger as the season rolled on. That momentum should carry them through this bowl game. MEMPHIS
Armed Forces Bowl: Houston Cougars (8-4) v #21 Army Black Knights (10-2) : Here's a battle of two strong teams. Houston has a fast-paced offense while Army's pounding ground game relies on ball control and time of possession, wearing down opposing defenses. This seems a very good matchup, the kind of quality contests that were common in bowl games in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before corporate sponsorships and conference ties forced favoritism. However, the nature of the Armed Forces Bowl brings in the best of the armed forces academies, so Army definitely has the crowd on their side. That might be enough to propel them to win what might be one of the closest contested bowl games. ARMY
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo Bulls (10-3) v Troy Trojans (9-3) : The Bulls lost the MAC title game on a miraculous drive by Northern Illinois. Until then, they had played brilliantly, proving to be the most dominant team in the MAC. Troy is a good team, especially in bowls, but Buffalo is out to prove their worth. Moreover, they have the emotional support of an unbeaten basketball team as well. BUFFALO
Hawai'i Bowl: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-5) at Hawaii Warriors (8-5) : This game is typically on Christmas Eve, but since that is Monday this year, they play early. That won't bother the Warriors, who are devastating at home. A stronger team would prove a challenge, but Louisiana Tech has only been average this season. The only thing that makes the Bulldogs a threat? They play well in bowl games. They won't play well enough here. HAWAII
Wed Dec 26
First Responder Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v #11 Boise State Broncos (10-3) : Boise State nearly won the Mountain West title game. This game won't be as close. BOISE STATE
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) : Here's our first game pitting two Power Five conference teams against each other. Georgia Tech overcame a mediocre first half of the season with some stunning play and excellent performances. Minnesota was a powerhouse in non-conference games, but couldn't compete with the quality teams in the Big Ten. Georgia Tech certainly seems, at least on paper, to be the stronger team, but Minnesota's stiffer conference competition, and strong non-conference record, makes them an interesting upset pick. GEORGIA TECH
Cheez-It Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) v TCU Horned Frogs (6-6) : TCU is one of those teams who I often question whether they should be in a bowl. If you remove their FCS game, they allowed more points than they scored. While Cal was not a stellar team, they certainly performed better than that, and should have enough power to knock off TCU. CAL
Thurs Dec 27
Independence Bowl: Temple Owls (8-4) v Duke Blue Devils (7-5) : Duke was a colossus in non-conference play, but conference play demolished them. Temple hovered on the outskirts of the Top 25 rankings for the last few weeks of the season, and that team will certainly pester Duke. TEMPLE
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (7-5) v Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) : Based solely on record, these two teams seem evenly matched. That's where record can be deceiving. Miami accumulated a 4-4 ACC record mostly by beating on weaklings. Wisconsin earned a 5-4 record in the Big Ten and played some hard-fought games. Wisconsin is more battle-hardened, and has the better talent than Miami, especially on defense. WISCONSIN
Texas Bowl: Baylor Bears (6-6) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : This is essentially a home game for the Bears. Talk about favorable conditions! Their offense was weaker than usual, but it's still better than what Vanderbilt will engineer. BAYLOR
Fri Dec 28
Music City Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Auburn Tigers (7-5) : Purdue's upset of Ohio State juvenated them, and they finished strongly. Auburn started strongly, but proved to be lacking against SEC opponents. Purdue stands a real chance to win this game, but Auburn can be determined, especially when representing the SEC. AUBURN
Camping World Bowl: #17 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) v #24 Syracuse Orange (9-3) : By the time this battle of ranked teams occurs, some of the luster may have fallen from Syracuse, as their basketball team is struggling. That doesn't take anything away from what the football accomplished this year. They'd like to culminate that year with a bowl victory, but that may not happen. West Virginia is a strong team who gave a tough battle to Oklahoma. They'll give an equally tough job to Syracuse. WEST VIRGINIA
Alamo Bowl: Iowa State Cyclones (8-4) v #12 Washington State Cougars (10-2) : Washington State was the lone bright spot among the Pac-12, and might be their best chance for a bowl win. Iowa State surprised some Big XII opponents, but they knew those opponents. I don't see Iowa State surprising Washington State. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Dec 29
Peach Bowl: #20 Florida Gators (9-3) v #8 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) : Michigan couldn't overcome their bitter rival, but Michigan has rolled over everyone else since losing a close game to Notre Dame to start the season. While Michigan traditionally has a poor bowl record, I think the Wolverines will win this one. MICHIGAN
Belk Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5) v Virginia Cavaliers (7-5) : Virginia is another school who has allowed more points than scored. South Carolina was dominant in their non-conference games, and I see that continuing here. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-4) v Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) : It would be nice for Arkansas State to win this game, and close out a successful bowl season for the Sun Belt Conference. However, I think Nevada is just a bit more talented. Arkansas State has a decent bowl history, though, and could pull this one out. NEVADA
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
NCAA Football Final Top 25 and Bowl picks
Here is the final regular season Top 25, including the results of the Army-Navy game:
Top 25 [Last week's/last published position(s)]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [1/1]
2. Clemson Tigers (13-0) [2/2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3/3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-0) [4/4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [5/6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) [6/7]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [7/5]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [8/8]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [9/9]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) [10/10]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11/11]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [12/12]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [13/13]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) [14/14]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [15/15]
16. LSU Tigers (9-3) [16/17]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [17/18]
18. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [18/16]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [19/19]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [20/20]
21. Army Black Knights (10-2) [22/21]
22. Washington Huskies (10-3) [21/22]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [23/23]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [24/24]
25. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) [25/NR]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#25]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-5), UAB Blazers (10-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
Now let's look at the bowls. All bowl eligible teams from Power Five conferences made it, and only 6-5 Southern Miss was excluded who I think should have been included. We have a total of 39 bowl games, but I won't split them exactly into thirds; I'll cover only the first 11 in this column. We'll see only one team from a Power Five conference in this batch, but four conference winners (MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Conference USA), adding insult to the lack of respect given to Group of Five teams. I hope some of them demolish their opponents, and some of the Power Five v Group of Five games go to the underdog.
Sat Dec 15
Cure Bowl: Tulane Green Wave (6-6) v Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-6) : Neither team has an extensive bowl history, although Tulane is certainly more used to spotlight games. Louisiana was impressive. Four of their six losses were to ranked teams (Alabama, Mississippi State, and twice to Appalachian State). This team is overlooked but very strong, and that should prove more than Tulane was expecting. LOUISIANA
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas Mean Green (9-3) v #13 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : Definitely a matchup deserving a later time, this one is likely to lean heavily to the Aggies. Not just for their strong offense, not just for their Top 25 ranking, but because North Texas has an atrocious 2-7 bowl record. UTAH STATE
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) v #10 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) : Arizona State and Wisconsin are probably the two best 7-5 teams out there, yet the Sun Devils are not likely to demonstrate it in this game. Mountain West champs Fresno State have an explosive offense. They proved they can battle defensively, too, as shown by the Mountain West Championship. With their only losses to Minnesota and Boise State (and they avenged that loss in the aforementioned Mountain West Championship), Fresno State should bring a second bowl win the Mountain West conference. FRESNO STATE
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (9-3) v Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) : The battle of the Eagles, but only one will soar. This is only the third bowl game for Eastern Michigan. This is the second consecutive bowl for frequent FCS champ Georgia Southern, and they won their first one. They know how to handle these big games. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) v #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) : Big Sky champ Appalachian State gets a maintain their perfect bowl record and rack up a third win for the Big Sky Conference with a devastating win over Middle Tennessee. That will also start Conference USA at 0-3. APPALACHIAN STATE
Tues Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl: UAB Blazers (10-3) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) : It's a showdown of two conference champs (DEFINITELY should have been later in the bowl season) as the surprise MAC winner faces the Conference USA champion Blazers. UAB has not won a bowl game, but they should break that streak this year. While Northern Illinois can be tough in bowl games, UAB just has too many weapons to lose this game. UAB
Wed Dec 19
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) v Ohio Bobcats (8-4) : San Diego has the better bowl record, and the better non-conference record this season, but I like Ohio's chances. The Bobcats come in on the strength of a winning streak, while the Aztecs lost their last three games. That's not a good way to enter in the bowls. OHIO
Thurs Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) at South Florida Bulls (7-5) : Man, Conference USA really got the short end of things in bowl matchups. This game might have found them favored over a struggling South Florida, except this is practically a home game for the Bulls. That can't be good for Marshall. SOUTH FLORIDA
Fri Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Florida International certainly has the better team, but will that team win? Toledo is a rare MAC team that has a winning bowl record, and they've gone to many of them. This one could be the closest bowl game of all, and could go either way. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) v BYU Cougars (6-6) : Another pick for the underdog. It's not just that Western Michigan has a horrible bowl record, but it's also because they have allowed more points against FBS team than they have scored. A team struggling like that probably shouldn't be playing in a bowl game, but definitely shouldn't win. BYU
Top 25 [Last week's/last published position(s)]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [1/1]
2. Clemson Tigers (13-0) [2/2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3/3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-0) [4/4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [5/6]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (12-1) [6/7]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [7/5]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [8/8]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [9/9]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) [10/10]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11/11]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [12/12]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [13/13]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) [14/14]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [15/15]
16. LSU Tigers (9-3) [16/17]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [17/18]
18. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [18/16]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [19/19]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [20/20]
21. Army Black Knights (10-2) [22/21]
22. Washington Huskies (10-3) [21/22]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [23/23]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [24/24]
25. NC State Wolfpack (9-3) [25/NR]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#25]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-5), UAB Blazers (10-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
Now let's look at the bowls. All bowl eligible teams from Power Five conferences made it, and only 6-5 Southern Miss was excluded who I think should have been included. We have a total of 39 bowl games, but I won't split them exactly into thirds; I'll cover only the first 11 in this column. We'll see only one team from a Power Five conference in this batch, but four conference winners (MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and Conference USA), adding insult to the lack of respect given to Group of Five teams. I hope some of them demolish their opponents, and some of the Power Five v Group of Five games go to the underdog.
Sat Dec 15
Cure Bowl: Tulane Green Wave (6-6) v Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-6) : Neither team has an extensive bowl history, although Tulane is certainly more used to spotlight games. Louisiana was impressive. Four of their six losses were to ranked teams (Alabama, Mississippi State, and twice to Appalachian State). This team is overlooked but very strong, and that should prove more than Tulane was expecting. LOUISIANA
New Mexico Bowl: North Texas Mean Green (9-3) v #13 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : Definitely a matchup deserving a later time, this one is likely to lean heavily to the Aggies. Not just for their strong offense, not just for their Top 25 ranking, but because North Texas has an atrocious 2-7 bowl record. UTAH STATE
Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) v #10 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2) : Arizona State and Wisconsin are probably the two best 7-5 teams out there, yet the Sun Devils are not likely to demonstrate it in this game. Mountain West champs Fresno State have an explosive offense. They proved they can battle defensively, too, as shown by the Mountain West Championship. With their only losses to Minnesota and Boise State (and they avenged that loss in the aforementioned Mountain West Championship), Fresno State should bring a second bowl win the Mountain West conference. FRESNO STATE
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern Eagles (9-3) v Eastern Michigan Eagles (7-5) : The battle of the Eagles, but only one will soar. This is only the third bowl game for Eastern Michigan. This is the second consecutive bowl for frequent FCS champ Georgia Southern, and they won their first one. They know how to handle these big games. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-5) v #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2) : Big Sky champ Appalachian State gets a maintain their perfect bowl record and rack up a third win for the Big Sky Conference with a devastating win over Middle Tennessee. That will also start Conference USA at 0-3. APPALACHIAN STATE
Tues Dec 18
Boca Raton Bowl: UAB Blazers (10-3) v Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5) : It's a showdown of two conference champs (DEFINITELY should have been later in the bowl season) as the surprise MAC winner faces the Conference USA champion Blazers. UAB has not won a bowl game, but they should break that streak this year. While Northern Illinois can be tough in bowl games, UAB just has too many weapons to lose this game. UAB
Wed Dec 19
Frisco Bowl: San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) v Ohio Bobcats (8-4) : San Diego has the better bowl record, and the better non-conference record this season, but I like Ohio's chances. The Bobcats come in on the strength of a winning streak, while the Aztecs lost their last three games. That's not a good way to enter in the bowls. OHIO
Thurs Dec 20
Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) at South Florida Bulls (7-5) : Man, Conference USA really got the short end of things in bowl matchups. This game might have found them favored over a struggling South Florida, except this is practically a home game for the Bulls. That can't be good for Marshall. SOUTH FLORIDA
Fri Dec 21
Bahamas Bowl: Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Florida International certainly has the better team, but will that team win? Toledo is a rare MAC team that has a winning bowl record, and they've gone to many of them. This one could be the closest bowl game of all, and could go either way. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (7-5) v BYU Cougars (6-6) : Another pick for the underdog. It's not just that Western Michigan has a horrible bowl record, but it's also because they have allowed more points against FBS team than they have scored. A team struggling like that probably shouldn't be playing in a bowl game, but definitely shouldn't win. BYU
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