NCAA 2014 Week 6 picks

We start to see more matchups pitting Top 25 teams against each other.  Now is when the rankings get interesting.

Thurs Oct 2
#15 Arizona Wildcats at #10 Oregon Ducks: Both teams will be well-rested for this matchup.  Oregon's offense hasn't been quite as dominant in previous years, except for that dynamic comeback against Michigan State, but I think they'll still prevail, despite a tough Arizona defense.  OREGON by 18

Fri Oct 3
Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange:  Syracuse has been a tenacious opponent this season, but they falter late in games.  Louisville is potent, and should keep the pressure on.  LOUISVILLE by 23

Utah State Aggies at #13 BYU Cougars:  BYU has the best shot to go unbeaten due to their relatively easy schedule.  Utah State did well last year, but they've lost too much.  BYU by 24

Sat Oct 4
Top 25:
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #3 Ole Miss Rebels:  Alabama hasn't been as sharp as Nick Saban would like them to be, but they had an extra week to sharp up and prepare for a strong Rebels team.  Ole Miss has been blowing away opponents, but Alabama is the first tough defense they are facing.  The Rebs aren't used to being such a highly-ranked team; at some point, the pressure will get to them.  This game is that moment.  ALABAMA by 16

#2 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 TCU Horned Frogs:   TCU has gotten better each week, but the quality of their opposition just took a major leap upwards.  This game will prove just how good the Horned Frogs defense really is.  I don't think it's good enough to stop Oklahoma.  OKLAHOMA by 18

#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns:  It has not been a good year for Texas.  Baylor's porous defense will allow them to score, but the Bears offense will just roll.  BAYLOR by 30

#5 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #24 Michigan State Spartans:  Nebraska has a potent offense that will stretch the Spartans defense.  That defense lost some punch from the #1 ranked squad they had last year.  Although Michigan State will keep it close, the Cornhuskers will likely pull this one out.  NEBRASKA by 12

#22 Stanford Cardinal at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Everett Golson committed three turnovers last week.  If he does that again, the opportunistic Stanford defense will shred them.  However, that was an aberration that I'm sure Coach Kelly will work on this week, so I favor the Irish, as the Stanford offense has been sputtering.  NOTRE DAME by 20

#11 LSU Tigers at #6 Auburn Tigers:  This matchup is always a tough battle, frequently a defensive melee.  LSU shined brightly last week, but it was against New Mexico State.  LSU's most impressive win was against Wisconsin, and they were helped by Wisconsin injuries.  Auburn has been a force all season, and that will continue here.  AUBURN by 20

#14 Ohio State Buckeyes at Maryland Terrapins:  Maryland is having a fine year, but the serious part of Big Ten conference play begins now.  Ohio State takes a little time to get going, so Maryland might lead early, but the Buckeyes defense will swarm over them in the second half.  OHIO STATE by 14

Vanderbilt Commodores at #16 Georgia Bulldogs:  Vandy is not having a good year.  Despite some struggles by Georgia, this game should be over quickly.  GEORGIA by 34

#17 Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers:  These games are often interesting; two of them in recent years went to multiple overtime periods.  Given Tennessee's strength this season, this game could be quite interesting.  The only edge I see is the fact that Florida had a bye week, while Tennessee had to deal with Georgia this past week.  FLORIDA by nine

Utah Utes at #18 UCLA Bruins:  It took a while for Brett Huntley to show his Heisman-caliber ability, but it showed up last week.  If he can keep that going, the Bruins will continue to rise.  Utah may be exhausted by the overtime battle with Colorado.  That exposed some big holes in the Utes defense, holes UCLA will exploit.  UCLA by 24

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #20 Florida State Seminoles:  After a couple of tough battles, the Seminoles get an easy to improve their Top 25 standing.  FLORIDA STATE by 31

Arizona State Sun Devils at #21 USC Trojans:  USC hasn't looked sharp, but the Sun Devils collapsed last week.  If they can't reverse that, they will have a difficult few weeks ahead of them.  USC by 16

#25 NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers:  Clemson is not having a good 2014.  NC State played Florida State tough until late in the fourth quarter.  Don't count on Clemson lasting that long.  NC STATE by 23

Big Ten:
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini defense is practically non-existent, but the offense can produce.  Purdue's offense has only shown up against FCS Southern Illinois and weakened Western Michigan, who put up 34 points against the Purdue defense.  I have to like Illinois' chances.  ILLINOIS by ten

North Texas Mean Green at Indiana Hoosiers:  Indiana fell to Maryland after upsetting Missouri, but I don't consider the Missouri game a fluke.  Indiana has power; I think they just underestimated the Terrapins.  They won't do that to North Texas, although the Mean Green aren't so mean on the field this year.  INDIANA by 16

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern came back to life last week.  If that was not a fluke, they can be dangerous.  Wisconsin's ground game is punishing, though, wearing down defenses.  That will be too much for the weakened Wildcat defense.  WISCONSIN by 17

Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  How bad a season is Michigan having?  How about the fact that I don't favor them to beat a conference newbie?  Rutgers has not been overly impressive in achieving their 4-1 record, but they have won.  Granted, their only conference game so far was a loss to Penn State, but look at that game.  The normally decent Penn State offense was held to 13 points, and Rutgers held their own against Linebacker U.  This team can deliver, and they will deliver Michigan their fourth loss.  RUTGERS by nine

Other Games of Interest:
Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs:  Did Marshall really need an extra week to prepare for the former FCS Monarchs?  Nah, I didn't think so, either.  MARSHALL by lots

SMU Mustangs at East Carolina Pirates:  The Pirates defense isn't as fierce as it has been previously, but that won't matter against the struggling Mustangs offense.  EAST CAROLINA by 33

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys  There has to be some concern in the Cowboys camp after the Cyclones put up four touchdowns against Baylor.  However, 28 points is the most the team has mustered all season, while the Cowboys are capable of scoring in the thirties and forties.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 16

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats:  Last week was the first impressive win for the Wildcats, but they will get another one.  The Tech defense has been non-existent, allowing Kansas State to score at will.  If the Wildcats don't hurt themselves with turnovers, this will be a blowout.  KANSAS STATE by 34

South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats:  Oh man, I'd love to pick Kentucky.  They have played their SEC opponents tough so far this season.  However, South Carolina suffered a tough one-point loss to Missouri, so I know Coach Spurrier will have the guys more finely focused this week.  It won't be an easy win, though.  SOUTH CAROLINA by six

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Cavaliers:  This could be a close game against two decent 3-2 teams.  Virginia has been sneaky this season, though, so Pitt should watch out for some trick plays and defensive shifts.  VIRGINIA by ten

Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Everyone is talking about how Miami dismantled Duke, but let's look at their entire season.  They have already lost to Louisville, giving them a conference loss.  Their only other two wins were against weaklings.  Georgia Tech is unbeaten, despite winning by just enough.  This will be more a testament to Tech's strength than to Miami.  GEORGIA TECH by 13

NCAA 2014 Week 5 results and Top 25

This week made up for last week's relative low number of upsets and surprises.  It began Thursday night, as UCLA clobbered the Sun Devils, dropping them from the Top 25 rankings.  Penn State lost their chance to enter the Top 25 when Northwestern completely dominated them.  FCS Yale upset the Army in overtime, and Minnesota gave Michigan their third September loss in school history.

The upsets didn't stop there; even the late night games had their share.  Duke was trounced by Miami, and Washington State came back to beat Utah, knocking the Utes out of the Top 25.  Earlier in Pac-12 drama, Colorado forced Cal to two overtimes, and pulled off the surprise.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0) [1]
2.  Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [2]
3.  Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) [3] : Great defensive stand to continue their unbeaten season
4.  Baylor Bears (4-0) [4] : How did Iowa State score all of those points?  Baylor fans should be concerned
5.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-0) [7] : Penn State's loss makes the Cornhuskers the only Big Ten unbeaten team
6.  Auburn Tigers (4-0) [8] : Huge game for the Tigers
7.  Texas A&M Aggies (5-0) [5] : They won, but Kenny Hill struggled
8.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) [6]
9.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) [9] : Nice win, but a late turnover almost gave Syracuse a chance to come back
10. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [10]
11. LSU Tigers (4-1) [18] : Huge blowout for the Tigers
12. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) [33]
13. BYU Cougars (4-0) [13]
14. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) [27]  They pulverized Cincy to return to the Top 25
15. Arizona Wildcats (4-0) [15]
16. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) [16] : Nice and much-needed conference win, although Tennessee hung in there
17. Florida Gators (2-1) [17]
18. UCLA Bruins (4-0) [NR]
19. Missouri Tigers (4-1) [19]  They bounce back from the Indiana loss to knock off South Carolina
20. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) [24] : They beat NC State, but it wasn't easy.  They also committed too many turnovers
21. USC Trojans (3-1) [21] : Nice win over Oregon State, but they still seem a bit confused
22. Stanford Cardinal (3-1) [14] : Ugly victory
23. Duke Blue Devils (4-1) [12]
24. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) [34] : Another blowout victory
25. NC State Wolfpack (4-1) [20] : They led most of the game against Florida State

Dropped off: Arizona State Sun Devils [#11], Tennessee Volunteers [#22], Utah Utes [#23], Kentucky Wildcats [#25]

On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (4-0), Washington Huskies (4-1), Wisconsin Badgers (3-1),  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1), Maryland Terrapins (4-1), Louisville Cardinals (4-1), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2), East Carolina Pirates (3-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0), Kansas State Wildcats (3-1), Virginia Cavaliers (3-2), South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2)

NFL 2014 Power Rankings and Week 4 picks

I'm still struggling to get back to my normal percentage of making picks.  This happened the last time I signed up for one of those competitive "U Pick-Em" contests.  I do better when I don't use my prognostication powers for profit.

Top 10 [Last week's position]
1.  CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0) [5] : Believe it or not, the Bengals now house the best defense in the league
2.  Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) [3] : Chip Kelly has the best offense in the league
3.  Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [7] : Beating San Fran moved them up.  Their offense still needs work, but their defense is stiff
4.  Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [10] : The defending Super Bowl Champs won the rematch, but they required overtime to do it
5.  New England Patriots (2-1) [11] : While their offense still looks to get their restructured line in order, the defense holds down the fort
6.  San Diego Chargers (2-1) [12] : Known for their offense, their defense leads their division
7.  Detroit Lions (2-1) [14] : They lead the NFC North with a strong defense and power-packed offense
8.  Houston Texans (2-1) [1] : Decent defense, although no longer the best in the league
9.  Buffalo Bills (2-1) [4] : Skunked by San Diego
10. Denver Broncos (2-1) [6] : Forced Seattle into overtime

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1.  AFC North [4] : Big wins by Cincy and Pitt pushed this division up
2.  NFC West [1] : Arizona and Seattle impress.  Concerns are being raised about the 49ers
3 (tie). AFC East [2] : Tough week without a winner in sight
3 (tie). NFC East [2] : Still tied with their AFC regional mates, although they did get a couple of wins
5 (tie). NFC North [5] : Detroit sailed; the Bears should have
5 (tie). AFC West [7] : San Diego had great win, and Denver impressed in overtime loss
7.  AFC South [7] : Colts won; the rest lost big
8.  NFC South [6] : Atlanta looked good, but Carolina suffered first loss

Week 4 picks
Thursday night:  New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  The Giants had a tremendous offensive explosion against Houston, but I'm not sure Eli and company have really learned their new scheme yet.  Kurt Cousins resumes full-time starting duties, as he did last year, and the Redskins offense may move more smoothly.  REDSKINS, 27-17

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans:  The Texans should bounce back and give the Bills their second consecutive loss.  EJ Manual and company are doing well, but they face a very stiff defense.  TEXANS, 23-16

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens:  The Panthers depleted backfield gets a boost with the return of DeAngelo Williams, but it is more important for the passing offense to get coordinated.  The Ravens defense excels at shaking things up, so I don't think the Panthers will get it together this weekend.  RAVENS, 20-16

Detroit Lions at New York Jets:  The Jets have a potent defensive line that shuts down a running game, but the Bears exposed their secondary last week.  Watch for Megatron and the Lions exploit that.  LIONS, 27-16

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears:  Prior to the start of the season, I had no problem picking the Packers to win this game.  Now, not so much.  Yes, the Bears defense is banged up already, but they showed spunk and determination against the Jets.  They have trouble stopping a running attack, but the Packers haven't been using one recently.  Therefore, the Bears have the edge on defense.  The normally regimented Packers offense is confused, so the Bears have an advantage on offense, too.  BEARS, 24-17

Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders:  Oakland's offense continues to struggle, producing the fewest than any other team.  Miami has also struggled, but not as badly as Oakland.  This won't be a big game offensively, but it will be a Fin win.  DOLPHINS, 16-10

Tampa Bay Bucs at Pittsburgh Steelers:  How badly are the Bucs struggling?  How about the fact that the only team with a larger point differential is Jacksonville?  STEELERS, 23-17

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts:  The Colts continue their climb back into the upper echelons of the league after starting 0-2.  Tennessee had a fabulous first week, but they haven't been able to repeat that.  Their offense is the second worst in the league. COLTS, 34-23

Sunday late games:
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings:  Matt Cassel is out, likely for the rest of the season.  That brings in rookie Teddy Bridgewater.  We'll see if he's ready to play in the NFL or not.  The Vikings defense will help his improvement, but can that defense hold against a Falcons offense that clicked last week?

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers:   Jacksonville's defense can't stop the Chargers, and the Chargers defense is certainly capable of stopping them.  CHARGERS, 37-10

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers:  Like the Packers-Bears matchup, I'm changing my mind on this one.  The 49ers are struggling, while the Eagles offense is soaring.  EAGLES, 33-24

Sunday night:  New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys:  This game will depend upon which Saints team shows up.  They should roll over the Cowboys in an offensive showdown, but both are capable of self-destruction.  I'll reduce the offense but still give the edge to the Saints.  SAINTS, 24-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs offense isn't delivering like expected.  The defense is okay, but not as tough as last year.  Both squads excelled against Miami last week, but I'll believe the Chiefs are on the mend if they do it again.  I don't think they'll do it this week.  PATS, 23-16

NCAA 2014 Week 5 picks

Most of my picks are straight-forward this week, although I may have a couple of surprises.  Let's jump right into it.

Thurs Sept 25
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  Tech's on a bad spiral right now, while the Cowboys are a strong team.  This one shouldn't be too much of a challenge for the home team.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 18

UCLA Bruins at #11 Arizona State Sun Devils:  The Bruins are unbeaten but unimpressive.  A win here would impress, but the Sun Devils have been playing very well, and knock opponents around.  If Brett Huntley doesn't start showing that Heisman prowess, the Bruins will lose.  ARIZONA STATE by 16

Fri Sept 26
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos:  How low have the Bulldogs sunk this season?  How about being chosen to lose to perennial doormat New Mexico.  NEW MEXICO by nine

Sat Sept 27
Top 25:
Memphis Tigers at #3 Ole Miss Rebels:  A nice easy game to pad their numbers.  Ole Miss still has to face conference opponents to impress the selection committee, however.  OLE MISS by 30

#4 Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones:  Great opponent to start conference play; this should be a sweep.  BAYLOR by 36

Arkansas Razorbacks at #5 Texas A&M Aggies:  Arkansas is a decent team, but they have their hands full with the Aggies.  Their defense can do no better than slowing them down slightly, and their offense can't keep pace.  TEXAS A&M by 24

Illinois Fighting Illini at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  I think my mother and I should turn away during this game.  Illinois has to play a backup quarterback against the strongest team in the conference?  Ugh.  NEBRASKA by 34

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at #8 Auburn Tigers:  Easy win for the Tigers, who need an easy game after last week's squeaker.  AUBURN by 30

#9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange:  Well, the Orange STARTED their season well.  This will bring them to an even record.  NOTRE DAME by 24

#12 Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes:  The Canes already lost their conference opener, and will now go 0-2.  Rare occurrence for Miami, but not surprising.  Do you know they have a NEGATIVE margin of victory against FBS teams so far this season?  That'll expand after this game.  DUKE by  24

#14 Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies:  The Huskies have come burning out of the gate, but they pit their unbeaten record against a stiff defense.  The Huskies will make a game of it, but I think Stanford will emerge victorious.  STANFORD by eight

#22 Tennessee Volunteers at #16 Georgia Bulldogs:  It's extremely hard to win between the hedges, and Tennessee knows that.  This rivalry isn't as intense as the one with Florida, so emotions won't be high enough to help Tennessee overcome a strong Georgia team.  GEORGIA by 13

New Mexico State Aggies at #18 LSU Tigers:  Easy win for the Tigers. No need to come from behind here, as they won't be behind. LSU by 34

#19 Missouri Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks:  Surprise time!  The Gamecocks are favored.  After Missouri's loss to Indiana, I can see why.  However, the Gamecocks have been very inconsistent this year, following big wins with horrible losses.  I also think the Indiana shock will awaken the Tigers.  They'll be more fierce in this game, too fierce for the sputtering Gamecocks.  MISSOURI by 20

Oregon State Beavers at #21 USC Trojans:  The Beavers love to upset ranked conference opponents, but they usually do that at home.  USC may not win by much, but they should emerge victorious.  USC by 13

Washington State Cougars at #23 Utah Utes:  This Pac-12 battle won't be as close as the one above.  The Cougars are struggling, while Utah will ride the wave of their delayed victory over Michigan.  UTAH by 26

Big Ten:
Wyoming Cowboys at Michigan State Spartans:  Easy game for the Spartans.  Another chance to impress the selection committee.  MICHIGAN STATE by lots

South Florida Bulls at Wisconsin Badgers:  The oft-tough Bulls defense is lacking something this year, and that something is toughness.  Wisconsin wears down opposing defenses with a crushing ground game, and they will do that again here.  WISCONSIN by 34

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers:  Can Iowa follow up their upset over Pitt with another win, after a dismal start to the season?  I think so.  The new starters are coming together, and that could spell trouble for a Purdue team languishing in mediocracy.  IOWA by 17

Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions:  With some Top 25 projected losses, a strong win here should send Penn State into the Top 25.  They'll get it.  Northwestern has been disappointing so far thsi season, and I don't see them getting it together for this game.  PENN STATE by 23

Tulane Green Wave at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Rutgers continues a good start with a win here.  After playing a close game against Penn State, the conference needs to pay attention to their new recruit.  RUTGERS by 23

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers:  Maryland starts conference play facing the team that upset Missouri.  Talk about pressure!  Maryland had a tendency to start strong and then collapse when they hit conference play.  Will that trend continue in their new conference?  Perhaps.  I'll pick Maryland, because they have played better overall so far this season, but if last week showed that Indiana was getting things together, Maryland will be crushed.  MARYLAND by four

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan is looking to bounce back from their loss to Utah, but Minnesota won't make it easy.  The Gophers are playing well, and could surprise the Wolverines.  MICHIGAN by six

Cincinnati Bearcats at Ohio State Buckeyes:  Ohio State has a chance to impress selection committee members with a strong victory here.  New QB JT Barrett practiced hard these past two weeks, and should have a solid game.  OHIO STATE by 34

Next 20:
UTEP Miners at Kansas State Wildcats:  Upset alert!  K-State has a small losing margin of victory (-2) against FBS teams, while UTEP has played well.  If the Wildcats underestimate UTEP, they will lose.  They need to be ready to battle.  They will likely trail at halftime; the deciding factor may be how much they trail.  I'll pick Kansas State, but don't be surprised to see UTEP knock them down.  KANSAS STATE by six

TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs:  TCU gets a nice win to lead into conference play.  TCU by 30

Colorado State Rams at Boston College Eagles:  The Eagles will soar here, building on a resume bolstered by their upset win over USC two weeks ago.  BOSTON COLLEGE by 32

Kent State Golden Flashes at Virginia Cavaliers:  Kent State was blown away by Ohio State 66-0.  This game will be closer, but it'll still be a huge loss.  VIRGINIA by 34

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals:  Wake could only beat Army by three points.  This was after losing to Utah State by twelve.  Louisville should start their ACC conference play with an impressive 2-0 record, establishing themselves as a team to beat.  LOUISVILLE by 24

Colorado Buffaloes at Cal Golden Bears:  Cal's had a tough time with FBS opponents so far, but Colorado has had it tougher.  CAL by 17

Boise State Broncos at Air Force Falcons:  Boise will continue to win, and take a 2-0 lead in the Mountain West.  BOISE STATE by 21

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #24 Florida State Seminoles at #20 NC State Wolfpack:  UPSET!  Jameis Winston will be chopping at the bit to play after sitting out all of last week, but that eagerness may cause him to overthrow some receivers.  We saw last week that the receivers don't always run clean routes; it is Jameis' eye that allows for completions.  If he screws up and throws a couple of interceptions, the Wolfpack can win this game.  NC STATE by six

NCAA 2014 Week 4 results and Top 25

I may have been the only national analyst in the country who picked Mississippi State; that win was not an upset for me!  My rankings are vindicated (or, at least, that one is).  Florida State showed that it is a weak team without Jameis Winston.  Clemson needed four weeks, but they've finally settled on a quarterback.  Arkansas amazed us with its strength, and the Big Ten conference as a whole went out of their way to show they were contenders.  Wisconsin and Michigan State ran up the score (something the teams in the conference almost NEVER do!) to impress the selection committee, while Iowa and Maryland engineered terrific upsets.  With the exception of Illinois, who left lowly Texas State score WAY too much against them, every single team played well.

Perhaps the most shocking example of playing well, though, was the East Carolina Pirates, who smacked North Carolina 70-41.  The Pirates were one of several teams who showed that this first year of playoffs have motivated many teams.  So many teams have been impressive in these early stages, in fact, that I have expanded my "On the Edge" section of the Top 25 to "The Next 20", as I have that many teams I am considering for placement in the Top 25 if someone falters.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (4-0) [1] : Although shaky in the first half, the Tide took control and shut down the Gators
2.  Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [2] : Another team who didn't pull away until the second half, they controlled the outcome
3.  Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) [3]
4.  Baylor Bears (3-0) [4]
5.  Texas A&M Aggies (4-0) [9] : Kenny Hill may be the surprise frontrunner from the Heisman Trophy
6.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) [5] : Even a botched snap couldn't give the game to LSU
7.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) [7] : They tore apart their hated rivals from Miami
8.  Auburn Tigers (3-0) [6] : Had a hard time on Thursday
9.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) [8]
10. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [10] : Scored less than usual, and winless Washington State matched them score for score
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) [11]
12. Duke Blue Devils (4-0) [12] : They seem destined to hit the Top 10
13. BYU Cougars (4-0) [19] : Took the Cougars a while to get going, too, but then they rolled
14. Stanford Cardinal (2-1) [14]
15. Arizona Wildcats (4-0) [15] : Had to come from behind to beat Cal
16. Georgia Bulldogs (2-1) [24]
17. Florida Gators (2-1) [13]
18. LSU Tigers (3-1) [18]
19. Missouri Tigers (3-1) [12] : A casualty of the Big Ten surge this week, as they were upset by Indiana
20. NC State Wolfpack (4-0) [20]
21. USC Trojans (2-1) [21]
22. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) [22]
23. Utah Utes (3-0) [23] : I don't understand how they were underdogs.  Hadn't anyone in Las Vegas WATCHED the team from their neighboring state?
24. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) [17] : Clearly they need Jameis Winston, as they have no running game
25. Kentucky Wildcats (2-1) [25]

The Next 20
26. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)
27. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1)
28. Marshall Thundering Herd (4-0)
29. Washington Huskies (4-0)
30. Oregon State Beavers (3-0)
31. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1)
32. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1)
33. TCU Horned Frogs (2-0)
34. Michigan State Spartans (2-1)
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1)
36. East Carolina Pirates (3-1)
37. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0)
38. Boston College Eagles (3-1)
39. Maryland Terrapins (3-1)
40. Cal Golden Bears (2-1)
41. Louisville Cardinals (3-1)
42. Boise State Broncos (3-1)
43. Kansas State Wildcats (2-1)
44. Virginia Cavaliers (2-2)
45. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-2)

NFL 2014 Week 2 Power Rankings and Week 3 picks

Another rough week for prosnosticators!  I am having one of the worst starts ever, as teams believed to be strong are faltering and normally weak teams are showing up strongly.  It is definitely an indication of something weird when, in just two weeks, we have fewer than ten unbeaten teams in the NFL.

Top Ten [Last week's position]
Lots of shake-up here
1,  Houston Texans (2-0) [8] : The Texans roll as their offense soars
2.  Carolina Panthers (2-0) [11] : They displayed a surprisingly stiff defense against an offensive machine
3.  Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) [6] : Two consecutive comebacks from double-digit deficits means you can never count this team out
4.  Buffalo Bills (2-0) [14]  Their offense continued where they left off in Chicago and manhandled the Miami Dolphins
5.  Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) [9] : Their defense stepped up and stopped Matt Ryan and company
6.  Denver Broncos (2-0) [10] : Their offense sputtered a bit against Kansas City, but they pulled out another win, which was a better showing than many of last week's top teams
7.  Arizona Cardinals (2-0) [16] : Okay, so beating the Giants isn't too impressive this week, but it was the WAY the Cardinals controlled the ball that made them impressive
8.  Washington Redskins (1-1) : Their offense found legs when Kurt Cousins stepped in for RGIII
9.  Baltimore Ravens (1-1) : Their defense came back to life
10. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) [1] : Shocking loss to the Chargers.  They are a different team on the road

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1.  NFC West [1] : The division leaders lost, but wins by St Louis and Arizona kept the division at the top
2 (tie). AFC East [3] : New England and Buffalo both had strong wins
2 (tie). NFC East [8] : What a difference a week makes!  Every team except the Giants won, and won big
4.  AFC North [6] : Three teams won (the most that could), surging this division
5.  NFC North [1] : Green Bay won and Chicago pulled off an upset, but collapses by Detroit and Minnesota hurt
6.  NFC South [5] : Carolina rolled, but the other teams were dsmal
7 (tie). AFC South [4] : Houston was the only winner, although the Colts hung in until late
7 (tie). AFC West [7] : San Diego shocked Seattle, the others didn't do well (or as well as expected, in Denver's case)

Week 3 picks
This could be a tough week.  I originally picked too many visiting teams, so I'm counting that the surprising play of some early upstarts will continue.

Thursday night:  Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons:  Atlanta is showing their inconsistent side again, but the Bucs are faltering.  The Bucs defense is okay, but I think they'll buckle under the pressure of the Falcons offense.  FALCONS, 31-17

Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns:  The Ravens defense found themselves last week.  The Browns offense has been looking good, but they often have trouble finishing.  Given the pressure of the Ravens, I think they'll fail to close out in the fourth.  RAVENS, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys at St Louis Rams:  The Cowboys look pretty good, while the Rams can't seem to get their offense going.  Of course, it doesn't help that they are already playing their 3rd string QB.  COWBOYS, 23-13

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions:  Oh, this one could get interesting!  I almost want to pick the Lions (and nearly did when I thought I needed more home team favorites), but the opening week loss had motivated the Packers, and I think that will give them the edge.  PACK, 27-23

 Houston Texans at New York Giants: Eli Manning is still figuring out the new offense, and now one of the league's toughest defenses comes to town.  That's not a favorable combination.  TEXANS, 24-10

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Colts are 0-2, although they have played well, so they will appreciate a chance to pulverize the Jags.  COLTS, 34-13

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints:  How will Adrian Peterson's suspension affect the Vikings?  If they use the scheme from Week One, where Peterson wasn't much of a factor, perhaps not.  I think it will confuse them enough for the Saints to win.  SAINTS, 24-20

Oakland Raiders at New England Patriots:  The Patriots get a fairly easy opponent to continue to build momentum after their upset in Week One.  PATS, 27-13

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills:  The Chargers upset Seattle and now everyone thinks they are powerhouses.  However, historically San Diego has followed a terrific performance with a mediocre one.  Given the strength shown by the Bills this year, that kind of performance will lead to a loss.  BILLS, 26-20

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals:  The Titans had a colossal opening week, but can't seem to follow it up.  Andy Dalton and the Bengals continue to roll through the regular season.  BENGALS, 24-13

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles:  Kurt Cousins replaces RGIII, and things might get more dangerous downfield.  Cousins has a good eye and strong arm, so Washington might be in a position to match Philly move for move, score for score.  The main difference?  Washington doesn't have Philly's running game.  EAGLES, 27-23

Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks imploded on the road, but nobody uses home field advantage better than Seattle.  I don't think this will be the blowout that the Super Bowl was, but I think Seattle will regain their footing and comeback in the fourth quarter against Peyton and the Broncos.  SEAHAWKS, 30-27

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins:  The Chiefs are imploding, while the Dolphins have some good moves.  DOLPHINS, 23-16

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals:  I must be losing my mind, but I'm impressed by what Arizona is doing.  The 49ers seem a bit confused, so I'm picking the upset here.  CARDINALS, 23-20

Sunday night:  Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers:  Cam or no Cam, it doesn't seem to negatively affect the Panthers, whose defense will keep Pittsburgh at bay.  PANTHERS, 27-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Chicago Bears at New York Jets:  Normally I automatically pick against the Bears on Monday Night, because they seem cursed to play poorly on Monday Night.  However, the Jets secondary is abysmal.  Matt Forte may struggle to gain yards, as that front defensive line is one of the stiffest in the league, but Jay Cutler will find targets all night.  He may throw an interception or two, but the Jets won't be able to capitalize.  BEARS, 28-16

NCAA 2014 Week 3 picks

Several Top 25 teams have the week off, and those who play have fairly easy opposition.

Thurs Sept 18
#6 Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats : Unless K-State plays Auburn close, they should lose their national ranking.  AUBURN by 26

Fri Sept 19
UConn Huskies at South Florida Bulls:  Neither team is having a great year, but UConn has played better.  Surprisingly, I favor them.  UCONN by four

Sat Sept 20
Top 25:
#13 Florida Gators at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Roll Tide!  They should smother Florida!  The Gators had some trouble in their first game, and may have been happy that it was cancelled due to weather.  The Gators may be tired after playing so long against Kentucky (who gets a bye week as a reward).  BAMA by 24

#2 Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Mountaineers had a surprisingly good game last week, but the Sooners should beat them down.  OKLAHOMA by 27

Miami Hurricanes at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Miami's only impressive game was against a FCS opponent, so expect Nebraska to roll easily.  NEBRASKA by 30

#9 Texas A&M Aggies at SMU Mustangs  Easy win for the surging Aggies.  TEXAS A&M by lots

#10 Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars:  The Cougars are looking for their first FBS win.  Keep looking!  OREGON by 36

Indiana Hoosiers at #12 Missouri Tigers:  The Hoosiers shouldn't give Missouri much trouble.  MISSOURI by 34

Cal Golden Bears at #15 Arizona Wildcats:  The 'Cats get an easy opponent for their conference opener.  They'll need it, as they get Oregon next.  ARIZONA by 24

Tulane Green Wave at #16 Duke Blue Devils:  Duke continues their winning ways by stomping on Tulane.  DUKE by 31

Clemson Tigers at #17 Florida State Seminoles: The Noles had an extra week to prepare, so they should finally have a strong win to escalate them to the upper levels of the Top 25.  FLORIDA STATE by 30

Virginia Cavaliers at #19 BYU Cougars:  The Cavs may give BYU some difficulty, but the Cougars should prevail.  BYU by 13

Presbyterian (FCS) Blue Hose at #20 NC State Wolfpack:  The Pack should trample the Blue Hose.  NC STATE by lots

#23 Utah Utes at Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan has not looked good, so I favor the Utes.  However, a game like this may be just the motivation the Wolverines need to produce, so watch out!  UTAH by eight

Troy Trojans at #24 Georgia Bulldogs:  Troy lost to a weak FCS team last week, so the Bulldogs shouldn't have much trouble.  GEORGIA by 31

Big Ten:
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans should have an easy win to get back into stride.  MICHIGAN STATE by 27

Bowling Green Falcons at Wisconsin Badgers:  Although the MAC often plays Big Ten teams tough, this one shouldn't be too difficult.  WISCONSIN by 20

Iowa Hawkeyes at Pittsburgh Panthers:  Iowa is struggling, while Pitt is having a stellar year.  This one goes to the home team.  PITT by 18

Western Illinois (FCS) Leathernecks at Northwestern Wildcats:  Northwestern should roll easily here.  NORTHWESTERN by 26

Southern Illinois (FCS) Salukis at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue is not having a great year, but they should have enough power to win here.  PURDUE by nine

Maryland Terrapins at Syracuse Orange  Syracuse is on a hot streak!  Maryland often plays well against non-conference opponents, so this game may be close, but I have to favor the Orange.  SYRACUSE by ten

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Navy Midshipmen:  These two teams seem very even, so this is likely a close game.  While I often prefer home teams in close games, I think the last team to score will be Rutgers.  Navy's ground game takes too long.  RUTGERS by four

Texas State Bobcats at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Illinois was skunked by Washington, but Texas State isn't nearly as good.  The Illini offense will set the pace early.  The defense will give up a late score or two to the Bobcats, but the Illini will have the game in hand by then.  ILLINOIS by 17

UMass Minutemen at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Penn State is the only other unbeaten Big Ten team besides Nebraska.  They will retain that distinction this week.  PENN STATE by 20

San Jose State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  The Gophers want a strong victory after being thumped by TCU last week, but San Jose State may be a handful.  I think Minnesota will prevail in the end, but it will be a battle.  MINNESOTA by seven

Other Games of Interest:
Maine (FCS) Black Bears at Boston College Eagles:  BC gets FCS Maine after upsetting USC.  Even if they experience a letdown, they should still win this game.  BOSTON COLLEGE by 18

Marshall Thundering Herd at Akron Zips:  The MAC as a whole is struggling this season, while Marshall is knocking on the door of the Top 25.  They might get in after this week.  MARSHALL by 27

South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores:  Vandy is terrible this year.  South Carolina should finally get their point differential against FBS teams into the positive range.  SOUTH CAROLINA by 27

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers:  The Aztecs played North Carolina close, but I don't think they'll be as successful against the Beavers.  Oregon State has some good weapons, and the Aztec defense has some holes.  OREGON STATE by 20

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #5 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #18 LSU Tigers:  LSU might win this game, but they need to wake up.  They've played a bit lethargic so far this season.  If they don't wake up until the second half, the high-scoring Bulldogs may have established a lead they won't give up.  MISS STATE by 12

NCAA 2014 Week 3 results and Top 25

Fewer upsets and surprises this week, but the ones we had were doozers.  Two FCS teams beat their FBS opponents, as Indiana State thumped Ball State and Abilene Christian knocked off Troy.  Arkansas trounced Texas Tech in a complete defensive collapse by the Red Raiders.

Top 25 teams faced a couple of upsets.  Virginia Tech lost their Top 25 ranking by losing to East Carolina, and the USC Trojans fell far after losing to Boston College.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-0) [3] : The Tide roll and take over the top spot
2.  Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [4] : They continue to win impressively.  Let's see if they can continue that when conference play begins

3.  Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) [5] : They don't seem to be slowing down any time soon!  The SEC has a new power team!
4.  Baylor Bears (3-0) [11] : They win the only way they know how -- BIG
5.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0) [18] : The Bulldogs win big and leap into the Top 5 for the first time since I have been doing these rankings

6.  Auburn Tigers (2-0) [6]
7.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) [19] : Big win for the only Top 25 Big Ten team
8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) [2] : The Irish won, but it was not an impressive win
9.  Texas A&M Aggies (3-0) [8]
10. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [14] : The Ducks are looking better.  They could still get to the Top 5

11. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-0) [13]
12. Missouri Tigers (3-0) [20] : Very impressive game
13. Florida Gators (2-0) [7] : They barely survived a three-overtime game against Kentucky
14. Stanford Cardinal (2-1) [15] : Great way to bounce back from the disappointing USC loss
15. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [NR] : Strong showing for Arizona, who is a real player in the Pac-12 this season

16. Duke Blue Devils (3-0) [NR] : And so the Devils return to the Top 25
17. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) [17]
18. LSU Tigers (3-0) [21] : Still looking for a signature win this season
19. BYU Cougars (3-0) [9] : The team is lucky to still be unbeaten
20. NC State Wolfpack (3-0) [NR] : This team gets better each week
21. USC Trojans (2-1) [1] : They seemed to exhaust themselves in their win over Stanford
22. Tennessee Volunteers (2-1) [10] : Tough loss, but not unexpected
23. Utah Utes (2-0) [23]
24. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) : South Carolina bounced back and bounced the Bulldogs
25. Kentucky Wildcats (2-1) : They held on against Florida impressively

Dropped off: Virginia Tech Hokies [#16], Louisville Cardinals [#22], Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets [#24]

On the Edge:  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1), Boston College Eagles (2-1), Syracuse Orange (2-0), Marshall Thundering Herd (3-0), Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-1), TCU Horned Frogs (2-0), Oregon State Beavers (2-0), Virginia Cavaliers (2-1), West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1), South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1)

NFL 2014 Power Rankings and Week 2 picks

I didn't have a great start to the season.  I think I jinxed myself, as I allowed family members to convince me to play an online weekly NFL picks competition.  Every time I do that, I pick worse than normal.  There are some games this week that seem rife for upset.  Before we get into the picks, though, let's review the results from the first week of the NFL season:

Top Ten
1.  Seattle Seahawks (1-0) : The Seahawks started their title defense with a smashmouth performance against the Packers
2.  Tennessee Titans (1-0) : While their place in the Top Ten may not last, the Titans shocked the Chiefs and pulled off the biggest upset (at least by margin of victory) of the week
3.  Miami Dolphins (1-0) : The Patriots were never really in this game, and the Dolphins started the season by knocking down their division rival
4.  Detroit Lions (1-0) : Two early scores put the Giants in trouble, and they put it away in the third quarter
5.  Minnesota Vikings (1-0) : Cordarelle Patterson is listed as a wide receiver, but he ran for more yards than Adrian Petersen in a huge win for the Vikings
6.  Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) : Despite spotting the Jags 17 points from three turnovers, the Eagles then controlled the game to win 34-17
7.  San Francisco 49ers (1-0) : The 49ers caused four first half turnovers and had their game decided early in the second quarter
8.  Houston Texans (1-0) : Washington's offense was non-existent against the stifling Texans defense
9.  Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) : Cincy took advantage of a crippled Ravens squad to score a strong divisional win
10. Denver Broncos (1-0) : The offense sputtered in the second half, but they scored enough to hold back the Colts.  They need to work on their defense and running game, though.

Division rankings
1 (tie). NFC West : Impressive weekend for all but St Louis
1 (tie). NFC North : Strong victories for Detroit and Minnesota.  Chicago lost in overtime in a game they should have won because they stopped tackling late in the fourth.  Green Bay struggled, but they were playing the Super Bowl champs
3. AFC East : Three teams won, and none of them were the consensus easy division winner
4. AFC South : Tennessee and Houston started strongly, while the Colts nearly staged a great comeback
5. NFC South : New Orleans and Atlanta played an exciting overtime game.  Carolina was strong
6. AFC North : All games were divisional ones, so we'll have to see how this division fares against the rest of the league
7. AFC West : Nobody was outstanding
8. NFC East : Philly was the only winner, and they looked ugly in the first quarter.

Week 2 picks
Thursday night:  Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  How the Ravens react to the news blitz surrounding Ray Rice may define the outcome of this game.  They were already ready to play this game without him, but his suspension has now shown a bright light on the organization.  Most of the Ravens have handled interviews well so far, but how much of a distraction will this be?  They'll play inspired, wanting to show that the team is more than the former home of a fiance-beater, but I think they'll come up a bit short.  STEELERS, 17-16

Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants:  Where, oh where, has the Giants offense come?  To the West Coast, obviously.  Unfortunately, they play in the East Coast.  CARDS, 20-14

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals:  This game could really go either way.  Matt Ryan really moved the Falcons, and staged a great comeback against the Saints.  However, the Saints defense has some holes.  Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense looked good, but that was against a Ravens team dealing with some personnel losses.  So who will triumph?  The Falcons always get a boost at home, so being on the road might just slow them enough for Cincy to win.  BENGALS, 24-23

Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans:  Do I think Jake Locker will have as good a week as last week?  Perhaps not.  However, the Cowboys have shown that they can and will turn the ball over, and the Titans will be able to capitalize on that.  TITANS, 20-13

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers:  The Panthers didn't seem to lose anything with Cam Newton out from injury.  However, now they have to keep pace with the Megatron offense of Detroit.  That seems to be a more difficult task without their fiery leader.  LIONS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins:  Chad Henne had an excellent game, but he was helped by early Eagles turnovers.  They couldn't do anything when the Eagles got their feet under themselves.  Washington is concerned about RGIII's poor performance, but if they hold onto the ball, they should win.  REDSKINS, 13-10

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills:  Both teams had surprising results last week.  A win here by Miami would put them two games up in the division.  Knowshon Moreno had a tremendous day rushing, and led the Fins attack.  The Bills seem vulnerable to a good running game, as Matt Forte had a good day, too.  Everything would seem to give Miami an advantage, EXCEPT... Did you see that Bills passing game?  Their new acquisitions have really boosted that side of their game.  If the Dolphins offense depends on the running game, the Bills can counter even better (and faster) with a strong passing game.  BILLS, 30-27

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings:  I think the Patriots will bounce back from last week's loss, but it will take a couple of things:  the offense has to improve, and they need to stiffen their rush defense.  The Vikings have Petersen and Patterson, who can churn up yards if the Pats don't stop them.  The offense gains because we don't really know how effective the Vikings defense is.  The Rams were playing without Sam Bradford, and now play without backup Shaun Hill, who was injured against the Vikings.  The Vikings defense hasn't been tested, and the Pats will test them.  PATS, 24-13

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns:  Brian Hoyer had an excellent game, but he can't keep up with Drew Brees.  SAINTS, 34-20

Sunday late games:
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders  The Texans have lost rookie Jadeveon Clowney to injury, but they won't need him against the anemic Raiders offense.  TEXANS, 17-13

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos:  Kansas City collapsed last week.  Playing the Broncos is not a great way to recoup.  The Chiefs defense was lean, so Denver should accumulate a big halftime lead.  Even if they falter in the fourth again, KC won't come back.  BRONCOS, 34-17

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers:  The Jets defense is not nearly as tough as the Seahawks, so the Pack will roll better this week.  PACKERS, 31-13

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers:  San Diego blew a lead, while the Seahawks completed dominated a talented Packers team.  Of all games, this one is the least in doubt.  SEAHAWKS, 31-13

St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Rams may have no offense this game, so the Bucs have a great chance to rule.  BUCS, 13-6

Sunday night:  Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers:  Neither team was stellar in Week One.  The 49ers won, but it wasn't pretty.  The Bears SHOULD have won, but the defense forgot how to play late in the fourth.  If they do that again, they can't win at all.  I don't think they will win anyway, as the 49ers defense will make things difficult for the Bears.  The 49ers will also force at least two turnovers from error-prone Chicago.  49ERS, 27-17

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:  Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts:  Two strong offenses go at each other.  What's the difference?  Perhaps the Colts defense.  Although crippled with the loss of Robert Mathis, the Colts defense still has better talent than the Eagles.  Given that, I give the edge to Indy.  COLTS, 34-31

NCAA 2014 Week 3 picks

Not to jinx things, but I'm having a good season, despite the poor Big Ten performances last week.  Let's see if I can keep it up.

Thurs Sept 11
Houston Cougars at #9 BYU Cougars:  Well, we know a Cougar will win this game.  Given how Thurs evening games have been going this season, BYU should be concerned.  They have been very powerful so far, so I think they will overcome the "curse of Thurs", but this game may be closer than BYU would like.  BYU by nine

Fri Sept 12
#11 Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls:  It appears that Buffalo's great season last year was a one-time deal.  Regardless, few teams could keep up with the offense shown by Baylor so far.  BAYLOR by 30

Sat Sept 13
Top 25:
#1 USC Trojans at Boston College Eagles:  USC is off to a great start, and they want to keep that going.  If they can avoid a letdown after beating Stanford, they should overcome BC.  USC by 21

Purdue Boilermakers at #2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  After what both Notre Dame and Purdue did last week, this should be an Irish cake walk.  NOTRE DAME by 34

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide:  The Tide should roll here, as Southern Miss is starting off sputtering.  ALABAMA by 26

#10 Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Vols are a tough squad this year, but this opponent will be too much.  I'm not even sure the Vols defense can keep it close.  OKLAHOMA by 24

Lousiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at #5 Ole Miss Rebels:  The Rebs have an easier opponent, and should roll just as easily.  OLE MISS by 35

#25 Kentucky Wildcats at #7 Florida Gators:  Kentucky won't stay in the Top 25 after this.  Florida made up a cancelled game by rolling last week, and they have momentum.  FLORIDA by 28

Rice Owls at #8 Texas A&M Aggies:  The Aggies have an offense as strong as when Johnny Manziel led them.  That proves too much for Rice.  TEXAS A&M by 34

#13 Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes:  The Buffs aren't a real threat, so Arizona State should excel.  ARIZONA STATE by 32

Wyoming Cowboys at #14 Oregon Ducks:  After coming back against Michigan State, this game should be easy.  Even if they relax, they should still overwhelm Wyoming.  OREGON by 34

Army Black Knights at #15 Stanford Cardinal:  The Cardinal wants to redeem themselves for the close loss to USC.  Army is a great punching bag.  STANFORD by 20

East Carolina Pirates at #16 Virginia Tech Hokies:  The Hokies pulled off a defensive shocker last week.  If they don't let down, they should beat East Carolina in what should be a defensive showdown.  VIRGINIA TECH by 13

#18 Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Alabama Jaguars:  The Jaguars aren't tough, so this will be another easy victory for the surging Bulldogs.  MISS STATE by 31

#19 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Fresno State Bulldogs:  The Fresno State Bulldogs aren't nearly as strong as the Miss State Bulldogs, so Nebraska should have an easy win.  NEBRASKA by 23

UCF Golden Knights at #20 Missouri Tigers:  Will the extra week to prepare help UCF pull off the upset?  I don't think so, although they may keep it close in the first half.  MISSOURI by 17

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at #21 LSU Tigers:  Another easy win for the SEC.  LSU by 31

#22 Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers:  This game could go either way.  Both teams have played well so far.  Virginia has had slightly tougher opposition, so they may be better prepared, but I'll give a slight edge to Louisville, who can come up with surprising plays sometimes.  LOUISVILLE by three

Georgia Southern Eagles at #24 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  This battle of Georgia will go to the Yellow Jackets.  GEORGIA TECH by 24

Big Ten:
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes blew it last week, but Kent State doesn't have the same muscle as Virginia Tech.  OHIO STATE by 24

Indiana Hoosiers at Bowling Green Falcons:  If this was the first week, I'd pick Bowling Green with no hesitation, but the Falcons have sputtered.  Indiana could win, but I'll still pick the Falcons.  BOWLING GREEN by 12

West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins:  West Virginia was very impressive in their loss to Alabama.  Maryland hasn't exactly been slacking off in the first weeks, either.  This will be a close game, and I'll favor the home team.  MARYLAND by four

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan couldn't do anything against Notre Dame, but the Redhawks defense isn't nearly so tough.  MICHIGAN by 17

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa was one of the few Big Ten teams to win last week, although their play was mediocre.  Iowa State's play has been worse, though, so a victory should be assured here.  IOWA by 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCU Horned Frogs:  TCU has an extra week to prepare for this game, but their only game has been against FCS weakling Samford.  Have they adequately prepared?  I'm not so sure, so I'm picking an upset.  MINNESOTA by six

Illinois Fighting Illini at Washington Huskies:  The Huskies defense sucks, as they proved in giving up 52 points to FCS Eastern Washington.  Illinois outplayed Western Kentucky, who had a phenomenal first week.  I think Illinois will outscore Washington, although the game will be close.  ILLINOIS by seven

Penn State Nittany Lions at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Since Rutgers joined the Big Ten, this is the first conference game of the season.  Both teams have played okay so far, but Rutgers is used to weaker opposition.  I give the advantage to Penn State.  PENN STATE by eleven

Other Games of Interest:
Ohio Bobcats at Marshall Thundering Herd:  Marshall definitely has a good team this year.  A strong win here, plus some games pitting Top 25 teams against each other, could allow Marshall to enter the rankings.  MARSHALL by 28

Boise State Broncos at UConn Huskies  Boise State's defense slacked off when they led Colorado State, almost allowing the Rams a chance to come back.  UConn doesn't have the power, though, so Boise will keep a strong lead in this game.  BOISE STATE by 20

Kansas Jayhawks at Duke Blue Devils:  Kansas has fallen apart so far, and I expect Duke to keep that going.  DUKE by 24

GAME OF THE WEEK -- #12 Georgia Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks:  The Gamecocks are still looking to redeem themselves from their Thursday night embarrassment against Texas A&M.  Unfortunately Georgia has a good team, and so they may need to wait a week.  The Gamecocks will battle hard, though, so this game will be close, but I think South Carolina will fall just short.  GEORGIA by six

NCAA 2014 Week 2 results and Top 25

It's only the second week of the season, and it's looking to be deadly to play on Thursday evening!  Last week the favored South Carolina Gamecocks were thrashed by Texas A&M, now this week the Arizona Wildcats barely scrape out a win against the UTSA Roadrunners, a team in only their third season as a FBS team.

Friday saw an upset, as Pitt shocked Boston College.  Saturday continued the strangeness.  It was a terrible day for the Big Ten, a tough day for many Big XII teams, a strange day for the Pac-12, and a great day for ACC (the latter two seeming to continue what began on Thurs and Fri).  Washington nearly lost to Eastern Washington, whose quarterback threw for seven touchdowns against the Huskies.  The performance was so impressive that the Fox Sports late night analysts got confused and actually thought Eastern Washington was a FBS team!

Michigan State kept Oregon at bay through two and a half quarters, but then they let the game get away from them.  Virginia Tech upset Ohio State and Michigan was shut out by Notre Dame, effectively removing all contenders of the Big Ten from playoff contention except Nebraska, who is the only Big Ten team in the Top 25.  Texas wanted to redeem themselves against BYU, and instead suffered an even more embarrassing loss.

So how does that leave the Top 25?  All FBS teams are now eligible, but there have been enough strange results in the past two weeks that I'm not sure we'll see lots of movement in the next two weeks.  Still, here we go with the first OFFICIAL Top 25:

TOP 25
1.  USC TROJANS (2-0) : Impressive defensive victory over Stanford, who usually has the best defense in the Pac-12

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0) : They slaughtered Michigan in their final scheduled match-up
3.  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : Florida Atlantic is not a great team, but the Tide played a flawless game, which is a definite improvement from last week.

4.  Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : The only impressive Big XII performance against a FBS team this week
5.  Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) : Vandy is definitely a bust this season, but impressive play by Boise State makes last week's result better
6.  Auburn Tigers (2-0) : Nice games against opponents who have been decent in previous seasons
7.  Florida Gators (1-0) : The Gators get to finish a game, and it was impressive
8.  Texas A&M Aggies (2-0):  They get no credit for demolishing FCS Lamar; this position is still due to their shocker over South Carolina last week

9.  BYU Cougars (2-0) : They thoroughly trounced Texas
10. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) : This team believes in themselves, and they are making believers out of the rest of us
11. Baylor Bears (2-0)
12. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0) : Dangerous time of year for a bye week
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) : New Mexico is not a challenge, but the Sun Devils offense was still impressive

14. Oregon Ducks (2-0) : They held up against the Spartans defense, but they need to find some consistency
15. Stanford Cardinal (1-1)
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) : Convincing defensive win for the mastermind of Beamer Ball
17. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) : Still looking for an impressive FBS win
18. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0)
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0)
20. Missouri Tigers (2-0) : The offense rolled against Toledo, but the defense showed vulnerabilities

21. LSU Tigers (2-0)
22. Louisville Cardinals (2-0)
23. Utah Utes (2-0) : This team is showing sparks of their pre-Pac-12 strong days
24. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0) : Tulane wasn't quite wrapped up as well as they should have been
25. Kentucky Wildcats (2-0) : Offense didn't show up as much this week

On the Edge:  Oregon State Beavers (2-0), Duke Blue Devils (2-0), Virginia Cavaliers (1-1), West Virginia Mountaineers (1-1)

NFL 2014 Week 1 picks

Welcome to the first year of full-time Thursday night NFL football, as the NFL goes head-to-head against the NCAA on college football perennial premier night.  Does this foreshadow more Wednesday and Friday night NCAA games?  Since the NCAA creates their schedules years in advance, we may have to wait a couple of years to see, but I suspect that will happen.

Thursday night:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks:  The current Super Bowl champs face off against the team that many national analysts favor as the next Super Bowl champ.  The key to this game may be which team is better prepared.  Green Bay has certainly seemed better during the preseason, but Seattle's starters have not slacked off in preseason, either.  Green Bay may take an early lead, but I like Seattle's defense to buckle down.  This is a home game, after all, and Seattle has been brutal at home the past two seasons.  SEAHAWKS, 24-20

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears:  The Bears are healthy, and healthy bears are hungry bears!  They will feast on the challenged Bills and start the season with a strong victory.  BEARS, 27-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens:  This is a hard game to pick.  The Ravens are still building teamwork integrating their new additions into the old guard, while Cincy is still struggling to find their focus.  This will not be a smooth game, that's for sure.  In previous years I'd pick the Ravens defense to take over, but that defense has not been so strong.  I'll pick the arm of Andy Dalton, as he is still fresh and confident this early in the season.  BENGALS, 17-13

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers:  The Steelers get to keep their offensive backfield, but they'd better check their brownies!  Neither Cleveland quarterback looks ready to take on a forceful team like the Steelers defense.  The Browns will struggle to move the ball.  STEELERS, 20-6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles:  Chip Kelly's offense gets an easy opponent to get the season started!  The Jags defense is already considered one of the slower in the league, and they have to open against one of the fastest offenses in the league.  If the Eagles don't mess themselves up, this game will be decided in the second quarter.  EAGLES, 41-9

Minnesota Vikings at St Louis Rams:  Neither team seems to have an offense.  The Rams are in worse shape, as starting QB Sam Bradford will be sitting for at least two weeks with an injury.  That gives the Vikings a chance to squeeze out a win.  With some questions about the defensive front of the Rams, much of the work may be done by RB Adrian Peterson.  VIKINGS, 13-10

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:  The Patriots come to town ready to battle, but missing tight end Rob Gronkowski.  That's okay, QB Tom Brady found a bunch of other targets when Gronk has been out with injury.  Brady always finds a way to win.  PATRIOTS, 27-16

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:  Both teams have strong offenses and questionable defenses.  If it comes down to a scoring fest, I give the nod to the Saints.  The Saints are also playing with something to prove, as some recent incidents have again made some people question their discipline and integrity.  SAINTS, 34-28

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets:  Neither team have offenses that seem ready to play.  The Jets are having a bit of a quarterback issue, while the Raiders are missing decent receivers to help their quarterback.  On the defensive side, I like the Raider's ferocity just a bit more.  RAIDERS, 16-13

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Titans can have a tricky defense, so this game may be closer than people would expect, but the Chiefs should still pull this one out; there's just too much talent there for the Titans to overcome.  CHIEFS, 20-13

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans:  This is the closest to a "pick-em" game we have this week.  Either team is capable of winning.  It all depends on which develops faster:  the new additions of the Texans or the new offense of the Redskins.  Since Robert Griffin III is healthy, I like the Redskins' chances.  REDSKINS, 23-20

Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Practically another "pick-em" game, but I like the Bucs defense just a bit more.  New coach Lovie Smith loves the Tampa-Two defense, and he knows how to make it work.  A turnover deep in Panthers territory might make the difference in the game.  BUCS, 16-13

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys:  The 49ers often start a little slowly out of the gate to start the season, and I predict that could happen again this year.  That simply means the game will be closer than it should, not that the Cowboys will win.  49ERS, 20-17

Monday Night Football:
We get a late night again to start the season.  Thankfully I don't have to be at the lab too early on Tues morning.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions:  QB Eli Manning has really struggled during preseason learning this new offensive scheme.  The Giants went unbeaten, but they were helped by strong backups and decent special teams play.  They can't count on that as much in this game, which lets Matthew Stafford and the Lions roll.  LIONS, 24-13

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals:  Amazingly, the National UPickEm Challenge run by CBS affiliates around the county have nearly 75% of fans picking Arizona.  I can't see it.  San Diego has a good offense, and their defense is not bad, either.  Yes, they fell apart and frequently lose due to their own miscues, but I don't foresee that so much this year, and especially not against Arizona.  CHARGERS, 27-17

NFL 2014 NFC Preview

I conclude my NFL preview by examining the NFC.

NFC East
1.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-8 overall; 3-3 in division; playoff team):  Home to one of the fastest and most efficient offenses, the defense is often overlooked.  That would be a mistake by their opponents, as this is a tough defense.  Their biggest flaw is caused by their offense.  The offense scores so quickly that the defense doesn't have time to really rest.  They were losing games last year in the second half as the defense was tiring.  If they improve their conditioning, this team could win two or three more games than I expect.

2.  New York Giants (8-8; 3-3):  QB Eli Manning seems confused by the new offensive scheme.  He has struggled in preseason.  The defense has been helping them win, as they beefed up the cornerback corps by obtaining Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond.  They are thin among defensive linemen, however, so the front four must stay healthy.

3.  Washington Redskins (7-9; 3-3):  New coach Jay Gruden wants more pass routes and less read-option.  That means Griffin must be willing to look for alternate receivers.  His habit is to look for his primary target.  If that receiver is covered, he runs and looks for his "dump off" option.  If Griffin can't be more patient, this scheme will fail.

4.  Dallas Cowboys (7-9; 3-3):  The simple passing scheme created last year helps Tony Romo, as he does not improve well.  They are a bit thin at wide receiver and tight end, so injuries could hamper this scheme.  RB DeMarco Murray also must stay healthy, a feat he has not accomplished in recent years.

NFC North
1.  Green Bay Packers (12-4; 5-1; playoffs):  This team has a well-balanced offense, as they discovered when Aaron Rodgers suffered his shoulder injury last year.  There may not be a better runner in the game than Eddie Lacy, except his own divisional rival Matt Forte.  The biggest dark cloud for Green Bay is the one that has haunted them in recent years -- injuries.  The backups are not nearly as talented as the first team, and they don't fit into the offensive scheme as well.  Perhaps that would change this year, as they needed to learn the system last year.

2.  Chicago Bears (10-6; 5-1; playoffs):  Bears coach Marc Trestman focused on offense last year, improving the wide receiving corps and offensive line.  While QB Jay Cutler appreciated the better targets, he was most happy for the line improvements, as the Bears had previously given up more sacks than all but two teams.  Since Cutler has to scramble less, he has time to target his throws, and this offense is potent.  The defense suffered last year, especially in the front four.  They gained some talent to help in case the starters get injured, so that squad should improve.

3.  Detroit Lions (6-10; 2-4):  Of all teams in this division, this one has the most solid defense (not something we often say about the Lions!).  On the offensive side, the team has quality wide receivers, but QB Matthew Stafford forces too many plays.  This year he will be learning a new offensive scheme, which will just make that situation worse.

4.  Minnesota Vikings (3-13; 0-6):  QB Matt Cassel will be looking over his shoulder at Teddy Bridgewater.  If the team is smart, though, they will keep Bridgewater on the bench until late in the season.  Granted, by that time their playoff chances will have evaporated, but that gives him time to learn how NFL defenses work.  Besides, the biggest problems on the Vikings offense do not sit behind the center, as both quarterback and RB Adrian Peterson are solid.  The wide receiving corps is thin, and the right side of the line is weak.  Through in a weak defense that causes the offense to constantly play "catch up" football, and this is  recipe for disaster.

NFC South
1.  New Orleans Saints (12-4; 6-0; playoffs):  If the offensive line works, this offense is nearly unstoppable.  They brought in some new cogs to help the O line this year, and it seems to be working.  The defense has yo-yo'ed in recent years, sometimes being fairly strong and then the next year stinking.  Preseason hasn't given me a consistent enough picture to determine how that squad will do this season, but I'm predicting they will have it together.

2.  Atlanta Falcons (8-8; 4-2):  If this team can stay healthy, the offense is potent.  Injuries were a problem last year, and they didn't really add to the depth of the offensive roster in the off-season.  Throw in a suspect defensive line, and this team seems on the edge of disaster.

3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10; 1-5):  Lovie Smith is in heaven!  He has come to the home of his favorite defense, the Tampa Two!  I guess we know what the Bucs will be playing this season!  Hopefully Smith can improve on last year's defensive performances, as this team gave up too many big plays.  Josh McCown was great last year in Chicago in relief of Jay Cutler, and Smith brings him to Tampa.  Unfortunately he doesn't have the same quality receivers here, so it's questionable how he will perform.  I think RB Doug Martin will be carrying much of the load.

4.  Arizona Cardinals (3-13; 1-5):  This team lost too much offensive firepower in the off-season.  They added some elements to the defense, but that may take some time to gel.  This team will be forced to rely on the running game, which does not fit into the modern style of NFL football.

NFC West
1.  Seattle Seahawks (14-2; 5-1; playoffs):  It has been rare for a Super Bowl winning to repeat in the free agency era.  This team might, as they were able to retain nearly all of their players.  That's a tremendous feat!  They again have a great home schedule, and could go unbeaten at home for the third consecutive season.

2.  San Francisco 49ers (12-4; 5-1; playoffs):  They added more hands to the offense, giving that squad a major boost.  The defense is a bit thin in places, but if they stay healthy, they can give anyone (except maybe Denver) a challenge.

3.  Arizona Cardinals (3-13; 1-5):  They picked up some wide receiver tools to help QB Carson Palmer, but a weak running game hurts the offense.  The defense is also slow, so this team will struggle.

4.  St Louis Rams (3-13; 1-5):  With QB Sam Bradford already injured, the offense is in trouble.  Backup Shaun Hill has spent 12 years in the NFL, and none of them have been standouts.  With few versatile wide receivers and a weak offensive backfield, there is little for Hill and the Rams to fall back upon.  The defense has some bright spots, but they have enough holes to give teams chances to establish leads that the Rams offense cannot match.

NCAA 2014 Week 2 picks

I had a decent week last week, but it's easier when so many FBS teams play FCS teams.  We have that again, but some other matchups get interesting.

Thurs Sept 4
#13 Arizona Wildcats at UTSA Roadrunners:  San Antonio may have won a decisive victory last week, but their competition is a lot tougher this week.  This one will be a victory for the Wildcats, although they may not win by as much as they'd expect.  ARIZONA by 20

Fri Sept 5
Pittsburgh Panthers at #18 Boston College Eagles:  The Eagles won a commanding game last week, and they open ACC play with another likely one.  Pitt did okay last week, but they are overmatched here.  BOSTON COLLEGE by 24

Sat Sept 6
Top 25:
Lamar (FCS) Cardinals at #1 Texas A&M Aggies:  South Carolina couldn't stop the Aggies offense; what hope does Lamar have  TEXAS A&M by lots

#3 USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal:  Stanford isn't rated because they played a FCS team last week.  Even if they were, this might be an interesting game to pick.  The Trojans showed power last week; is it more than the Cardinal defense can stop?  I'll pick Stanford, but the Trojans will make this a close game.  STANFORD by three

#4 Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores:  Vandy fell to Temple last week in a complete collapse.  An SEC rival might get them more motivated, but Ole Miss has too much power.  OLE MISS by 26

Virginia Tech Hokies at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Hokies may have hoped that Braxton Miller's injury would slow the Buckeyes offense, but that doesn't seem to be the case.  Ohio State rolled last week, and their defense stood tall against a bruising Navy attack.  Things don't look good for Tech.  OHIO STATE by 24

UAB Blazers at #6 Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs shut out an opponent last week while posting more points against Southern Miss than most teams.  This team is a powerhouse this season that cannot be ignored, and cannot be easily slowed.  MISS STATE by 26

San Jose State Spartans at #7 Auburn Tigers:  Auburn had a pretty easy time against Arkansas last week, but they frequently play the Razorbacks well.  This is the one SEC result which may not have accurately reflected the strengths of the winning team, as rivalry incentives may have influenced the game.  I still think Auburn will be a strong team this year, and beat San Jose, but watch them in future weeks.  AUBURN by 20

Northwestern State (FCS) Demons at #8 Baylor Bears:  Despite an injury to QB Bryce Petty, Baylor should have the inside track on this game.  In fact, this might be an excellent time to rest Petty so that he can heal.  BAYLOR by 27

Arkansas State Red Wolves at #9 Tennessee Volunteers:  The Volunteers stated that they thought this was "their year".  Their performance last week seems to confirm that.  The Vols rolled against a team with one of the better QBs last year.  Defensively the Vols are solid.  They should roll here.  TENNESSEE by 35

Murray State (FCS) Racers at #10 Louisville Cardinals:  The Cards still beat Miami, without Teddy Bridgewater, so they should have no problem here.  LOUISVILLE by 34

#11 Oklahoma Sooners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  The Sooners are gunning for a spot in the playoffs.  They have the power to do that, and know that an unbeaten season will probably be required.  They won't let Tulsa get in their way.  OKLAHOMA by 36

McNeese State (FCS) Cowboys at #12 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  After rolling over Florida Atlantic, Nebraska plays another patsy.  Their strength of schedule may keep them out of playoff contention.  NEBRASKA by lots

Michigan Wolverines at #14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Both teams played well in their openers.  Michigan faced a newly-minted FBS team while Notre Dame rolled against a perennial weakling.  Neither game is a good indicator of how they might play this game.  Here's a better one -- this is the last scheduled Notre Dame v Michigan game.  Both want to win this final matchup, but I think Notre Dame wants it more.  NOTRE DAME by five

#23 BYU Cougars at #15 Texas Longhorns:  This is a great matchup, made more intriguing by the injury to Texas QB David Ash.  Texas' defense must perform for Texas to win.  If not, watch out for BYU.  TEXAS by two

Florida Atlantic Owls at #16 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Last week Nebraska and this week Alabama.  The person who scheduled these Owls games should be penalized for unnecessary roughness.  ALABAMA by lots

Citadel (FCS) Bulldogs at #17 Florida State Seminoles:  The Seminoles may have struggled against Oklahoma State, but the Citadel will be a breeze.  FLORIDA STATE by 34

Memphis Tigers at #19 UCLA Bruins:  The Bruins found Virginia a handful, but I think Memphis will be another matter, especially since Virginia often starts seasons strongly.  UCLA by 23

Sam Houston State (FCS) Bearkats at #20 LSU Tigers:  Another easy FCS v FBS matchup.  LSU by lots

#21 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  I must admit, the Hilltoppers performance last week makes me nervous.  I'll still pick Illinois, but this will be tough game.  ILLINOIS by three

Missouri State (FCS) Bears at #22 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys will easily rope the Bears.  OKLAHOMA STATE by lots

Richmond (FCS) Spiders at #24 Virginia Cavaliers:  So long as the Cavs do not overly-celebrate their near-upset of UCLA, they should coast through this game.  VIRGINIA by 30

Towson (FCS) Tigers at #25 West Virginia Mountaineers:  This FCS v FBS matchup will go like most of the others.  WEST VIRGINIA by lots

Big Ten
Western Illinois (FCS) Leathernecks at Wisconsin Badgers:  While a young defensive line crippled them in the second half of their game against LSU, I don't think it will hurt them as much in this game.  Besides, the Leathernecks defense is not likely to stop Wisconsin as effectively as LSU did.  WISCONSIN by 26

Akron Zips at Penn State Nittany Lions:  This in-state rivalry will end well for Penn State; not so much for Akron.  PENN STATE by 31

Central Michigan Chippewas at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue did better last week than I expected.  Let's see if they can repeat that.  PURDUE by 13

Howard (FCS) Bison at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Rutgers should roll here.  RUTGERS by 27

Northern Illinois Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats:  The Wildcats suffered a disappointing loss to Cal last week.  Northern Illinois didn't get to stretch themselves.  I think Northwestern had the better warm-up, but this game will be close.  NORTHWESTERN by nine

Maryland Terrapins at South Florida Bulls:  Another likely close game, both teams need to redeem themselves.  South Florida struggled against FCS Western Carolina last week, so they seem further from their goal.  MARYLAND by 11

Ball State Cardinals at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Both teams beat their FCS opponents last week.  I think Iowa has a strong team that is being overlooked by the national media, and that slight will motivate them.  IOWA by 21

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota has the power to hold back the Raiders, while their offense marches down the field.  MINNESOTA by 16

Other Games of Interest:
East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks:  South Carolina needs to redeem themselves for their defensive collapse last week.  East Carolina has suffered through a couple of bad years, but defense is their specialty, so it should be interesting to see how this game evolves.  SOUTH CAROLINA by eight

Texas Tech Red Raiders at UTEP Miners:  Tech needs to charge out of the gate strongly this season, so they look to dismantle UTEP.  The Miners might be a stronger team than they expect, but I think they'll win.  TEXAS TECH by 16

GAME OF THE WEEK -- Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks:  Most national analysts are already picking Oregon, but they can be stuffed by strong defenses; Stanford has proven that.  The Spartans look to have one of the best defenses in the country, which is the bane to Oregon.  MICHIGAN STATE by 13

NCAA 2014 Week 1 results and Top 25

It was an interesting opening weekend to the college football season.  We started off with an upset, as Texas A&M rolled over South Carolina.  The Aggies don't miss Johnny Manziel at all, but the Gamecocks seem to be missing a defense.  Temple also engineered an upset on Thursday evening, demolishing Vanderbilt.  Ole Miss rolled over Boise State in a game that most people thought would be much closer.

Bowling Green was one of my favorites to win the MAC, but they have started the season with a loss to mediocre Western Kentucky.  We did see one FCS upset, as North Dakota State had no trouble posting 34 points against Iowa State.

Two playoff-expectant teams struggled in this opening weekend.  Alabama had difficulty putting away West Virginia, winning only by ten, and Florida State nearly stumbled against Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys rolled up 31 points against the defending National Champs.  Both performances launch them into my first Top 25, despite losing records.

Before any newcomers to my blog look at my top 25 and think I have lost my mind, I will remind everyone of my rules:

1.  Top 25 rankings are based on THIS SEASON'S performance on the field, not how teams have historically performed or how they were predicted by national "experts" to perform (which is why I never have a preseason Top 25).

2.  Games against FCS teams count on the team's record, but not for any other statistical measure for my Top 25.  Thus, teams who played FCS teams this week are ineligible for consideration, because they haven't faced REAL FBS competition.

3.  Strength of schedule, a major factor, is based on the opposing teams' performances over the past four years.  Thus, teams that have recently done well but have traditionally been losers, like Utah State, are considered stronger than teams who play in power conferences but usually stink (like Vanderbilt).  Obviously, this helps a team like Tennessee and hurts a team like Temple.

4.  Margin of victory is not an important factor (it is considered, but not highly regarded).  Thus, beating the tar out of a wimpy team does not guarantee a team a high ranking.

That said, this week's Top 25 is below.  Since so many teams played FCS teams this week, I won't even consider this week's positions when making next week's Top 25.  In other words, this is like an "Exhibition Week" Top 25, and next week will be the first official ranking, considering FCS play over the first two weeks of the season.

Top 25
1.  TEXAS A&M AGGIES (1-0) :  Johnny Who?  The Aggies pulverize South Carolina to show they haven't lost any offensive power
2.  Georgia Bulldogs (1-0) : Once the Bulldogs figured out Clemson's scheme, they couldn't be stopped
3.  USC Trojans (1-0) : Fresno State might be considered a contender for the Mountain West title, but the Trojans showed the gap between top Mountain West teams and top Pac-12 teams.
4.  Ole Miss Rebels (1-0) : Perhaps the only time the Rebs will be in the Top Ten.  Of course, if they play like they did this week, perhaps not

5.  Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0) : Didn't skip a beat with the loss of Braxton Miller
6.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0) : The Bulldogs don't produce shutouts too often
7.  Auburn Tigers (1-0)
8.  Baylor Bears (1-0) : QB Kyle Perry is now questionnable, so they will likely drop, but they had a stellar performance to open the season

9.  Tennessee Volunteers (1-0) : It's a whole new ball game for this team
10. Louisville Cardinals (1-0) : They proved they could manhandle Miami even without Teddy Bridgewater
11. Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-0)
13. Arizona Wildcats (1-0) : Who would have thought that the best Pac-12 performance would come from Arizona?
14. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0) : Nice start to their season. Golson didn't seem cold at all
15. Texas Longhorns (1-0) : Nice start, but the loss of QB David Ash may slow them down
16. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
17. Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
18. Boston College Eagles (1-0)
19. UCLA Bruins (1-0) : It was a win, but it wasn't what Bruins fans expected, especially for the team favored to win the Pac-12

20. LSU Tigers (1-0) : They beat Wisconsin, but only after the Badgers' only experienced defensive linemen were injured.  The Badgers roster may be too thin to get them into the Top 25, but the Tigers' inability to move the ball against their young defensive squad threatens to shorten the Tigers' Top 25 life span.

21. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-0)
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys (0-1) : They really gave the Seminoles' defense fits
23. BYU Cougars (1-0)
24. Virginia Cavaliers (0-1) : They made it tough for the Bruins
25. West Virginia Mountaineers (0-1) : The Mountaineers scared the Tide