Time to finish my bowl picks. I left off on December 31st, but didn't finish the day. I left two of the longer-running bowl games, so we'll start there, then move to the traditional New Years' Day bowls (now on Jan 2nd due to the NFL).
Dec 31
Sun Bowl - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) v Utah Utes (7-5) : Utah struggled in their first season of the Pac-12, but came on late in the season. Georgia Tech had their share of problems, too, especially late in the season. Enough time has passed that Utah's momentum has died, so we need to examine the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams. Tech's defense is weak, and their passing offense is practically non-existent. Their running offense, though, is one of the best in the FBS. Utah has some problems on the line, so Tech's running defense will work. Utah will score, too, but a ground-churning, clock-burning offense like Tech's will wear down Utah's defense. GEORGIA TECH
Liberty Bowl - #22 Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : Vandy may play in the tough SEC, but that doesn't automatically make them a strong team. The SEC was a bit down this season, and Vandy still went 2-6 in the conference. Although the Big East was not stellar, Cincinnati also proved themselves against non-conference opponents. CINCY
Jan 2
Ticket City Bowl - #8 Houston Cougars (12-1) v Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) : Houston collapsed in the Conference USA Championship Game, so they have something to prove. Penn State is still reeling from the Sandusky scandal, so they want a victory to help wash away the sting. Penn State usually plays hard in bowl games, so this one will be closer than Houston would like, but I think the Cougars will pull this one out. HOUSTON
Outback Bowl - #11 Michigan State Spartans (10-3) v #23 Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) : This should be an exciting game! Offensively, these teams are fairly evenly matched. Michigan State prefers to pass more, while Georgia is more ground-based, but their offensive output per game is similar. Where the Spartans gain the edge is in defense. They have slowed some powerful teams this season, including Wisconsin, so Georgia will have their hands full. The Outback Bowl frequently is a high-scoring affair, but I don't think this one will fit that mold. MICHIGAN STATE
Capital One Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #16 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) : The Big Ten has typically owned the Capital One Bowl, but a new team represents the conference. Both of these teams prefer the ground game, but the Gamecocks can pass when needed. South Carolina also has a much stronger defense, and Nebraska struggled against the strong defensive teams of the Big Ten. SOUTH CAROLINA
Gator Bowl - Ohio State Buckeyes (6-6) v Florida Gators (6-6) : The Buckeyes get a chance for revenge against the team who TWICE beat them in the BCS National Championship Game. The Buckeyes struggled early in the season, but improved as they regained players serving suspensions. With those players back (especially wide receiver DeVier Posey), the Buckeyes should beat Florida, even WITHOUT former Gator coach Urban Meyer leading them yet. OHIO STATE
Rose Bowl - #5 Wisconsin Badgers (11-2) v #7 Oregon Ducks (11-2) : The Big Ten has not done well in Rose Bowls, so many analysts give the edge to Oregon. It doesn't help that Wisconsin lost in Pasadena last year. However, I like Wisconsin here. Everyone is touting Oregon's quick score offense, but Wisconsin scores just as often. They prefer running, so they don't score as quickly, but QB Russell Wilson can throw long, too. In fact, it's the diverse styles of offense that gives Wisconsin the edge. Oregon may take the early lead, but Wisconsin brutal rushing attack will wear down the Ducks defense. With the offense scoring so quickly, the defense won't get enough time to recover. This will eventually wear down the Ducks defense, especially since Oregon hasn't had to face such a physical running game all season. Wisconsin will take the lead in the second half, and maintain it. WISCONSIN
Fiesta Bowl - #4 Stanford Cardinal (11-1) v #3 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) : This could be the most exciting BCS game, even better than the BCS Championship Game. For only the second year does the BCS have #3 face #4 in a BCS bowl, and they have a great one. Two great quarterbacks, two teams with strong offenses, and two teams with only a single upset loss to a much weaker team -- this is a recipe for excitement. Expect lots of points and several lead changes. As much as I would love to pick Stanford in this, Oklahoma State faced more games like this during the season. The Big XII was actually the most competitive conference in the FBS, and I think the Cowboys will outlast Stanford. OKLAHOMA STATE
Jan 3: Sugar Bowl - #9 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) v #18 Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) : The Hokies may have been the cream of the ACC, but they couldn't hold back Clemson in the title game. Michigan's defense will hold back the Hokies, and the offensive line will open holes for their runners. The Wolverines will control the clock, the pace of the game, and the scoreboard. MICHIGAN
Jan 4: Orange Bowl - West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) v #17 Clemson Tigers (10-3) : The Mountaineers won the Big East on history; the BCS voters considered them the better overall team because they usually are. Cincy had the best stats in the conference, and the offensive-charged Tigers will have the better stats in this game. CLEMSON
Jan 6: Cotton Bowl - #20 Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) v #12 Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) : The Wildcats had a decent year, but the Razorbacks were powerhouses. They generated more yards than the Wildcats, and their defense is much stiffer. Arkansas should have a pretty easy time in this game. ARKANSAS
Jan 7: Compass Bowl - SMU Mustangs (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : I've mentioned how I dislike having weaker teams play after the BCS games start, as the level of competition reduces after exciting games. The Panthers played fairly well in the Big East, but didn't do well outside of the conference. Given the weaknesses of the Big East this season, I have to favor the Mustangs. SMU
Jan 8: GoDaddy.com Bowl - #21 Arkansas Red Wolves (10-2) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) : The MAC and Sun Belt champions go at it, and this could be an interesting game. The Sun Belt is 1-1 and often does well in bowl games; the MAC is 3-1 and often play well. The Huskies have a potent running offense, and gain lots of yards. However, they also give up lots of yards, especially in the secondary, and that opens the door to the passing attack of the Red Wolves. Northern Illinois will endeavor to control the clock, but the scoreboard will belong to the Red Wolves. ARKANSAS STATE
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP -- #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) v #1 LSU Tigers (13-0) : The previous meeting was a 9-6 overtime game with no touchdowns. I think we'll see more points in this contest. What many fans forget is that Alabama was in position to score more than LSU; their kicker had a bad day. I don't think LSU should count on that in this rematch. The Alabama game woke up LSU; they played much harder after that. I think Les Miles and his team KNOWS they should have lost. They are thankful to be playing in this game, as an Alabama victory would have made them #1, likely playing against Oklahoma State. The Tigers will want to prove they can win, but I think the Tide just has more tools. With their kicking game working and their top-ranked defense, the Tide will win the grudge match. ALABAMA
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 17 picks
The final week of the season, and only one playoff spot is entirely up for grabs. That's unusual. The league finishes entirely on Sunday to support the BCS bowl games.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (14-1) : The top team in the league relaxes this week, but they will probably stay on top
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3) : Brees has had a career season, surpassing Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-3) : Tightest defense in the league, they have perhaps the easiest game of the week
4. New England Patriots (12-3) : Top team in the AFC, they need a win to clinch home field advantage
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) : They need a win to clinch the AFC North
6. Houston Texans (10-5) : A two-game losing streak and yet this team still poses a huge threat
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) : Can still clinch AFC North despite two losses to the Ravens; they need some help, though
8. Detroit Lions (10-5) : They are showing force again, and could beat a resting Pack
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-6) : They made the playoffs, but they're showing some cracks
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) : Romo's hand injury could cause them to lose
Division rankings
1. AFC North : Despite Cleveland, this division has powerful teams; could provide both AFC wildcards
2. NFC North : Chicago's four-game slide has lowered this division
3. AFC East : With Buffalo finding their offense again, this division has no slouches; the Jets are the closest team to that
4. NFC South : With Carolina winning and scoring points, only Tampa Bay drags them down
5. NFC East : No outstanding team. You have to wonder if their division winner can win a playoff game
6. NFC West : Improvements by both Seattle and Arizona has lifted this division
7. AFC South : Indy's two-game winning streak hasn't been enough to compensate for Tennessee's sporadic performances
8. AFC West : Clearly the worst division. Despite Tebow magic, San Diego remains the only team with a positive point differential
Playoff races:
AFC: The Patriots and Texans have won their divisions. The AFC North winner will have a playoff bye, as will New England. This week determines who is first seed and second seed. Houston has clinched third seed, and the AFC West winner (which is still up in the air) has the fourth. The AFC North runner-up is fifth seed. Four teams are still contenting for the sixth slot.
New England, Baltimore, Denver, and Cincy control their own destinies. If the Pats win, they have the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Ravens win clinches the AFC North and a playoff bye. The Broncos win the AFC West with a win, and the Bengals wrap up the final playoff spot by beating Baltimore. Clearly, not all four of these can happen. A Bengals loss means they need the Jets and either the Raiders or Broncos to lose. A Broncos loss allows the Raiders a chance to win the division.
NFC: This one is fairly clear. Green Bay has the top seed, the NFC East winner is fourth seed, Detroit is fifth seed, and Atlanta is sixth seed. The only real contest is between New Orleans and San Fran for second and third seed. Here, the Saints control their destiny. A win clinches a playoff bye.
Early games:
Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (12-3): The Bills might have hoped that the Pats had already clinched the top seed, so they'd rest some starters. With the Pats chasing that mark, they won't show any mercy. The Bills are starting to regain their rhythm, but the Pats will knock it out of them. PATS, 34-21
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (12-3): The Saints are playing for a playoff bye. Carolina won't make it easy, as their offense is strong, but the Saints offense is stronger. The Saints defense may have some holes, but the Panthers defense has more. SAINTS, 31-23
Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Cutler may be healthy enough to play, but he might as well sit out. With the Bears out of playoff contention, this is a meaningless game. Besides, it seems like McCown can move the ball well enough, since the Vikings are weak. BEARS, 20-16
Detroit Lions (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-1): The Pack have already stated that they are resting many of their starters in the second half. That gives the Lions a chance to win this game and finish strongly (four wins) going into the playoffs. LIONS, 27-17
Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): The Colts need to lose to stay in the hunt for Andrew Luck, but I don't think they will. The Colts offense is finally starting to click, while the Jags are pathetic. After 13 consecutive losses, the Colts finish with three victories. COLTS, 23-20
New York Jets (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-10): What a difference two weeks makes! Back then the Jets looked like a sure playoff team, having won three in a row. Miami was struggling with mediocrity. Now the Jets have imploded, and Miami is emerging. Despite their records, these two teams now have the same difference between points scored and points allowed. Miami's defense actually looks better than the Rex Ryan-run one in New York. For that reason, I have to pick Miami to upset the Jets at home and spoil any remaining playoff hopes for the Green Machine. DOLPHINS, 23-20
San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at St Louis Rams (2-13): A probable Colts victory ensures St Louis wins the right to Andrew Luck. 49ERS, 26-13
Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5): Houston has lost two in a row. I don't think Coach Kubiak wants them to have a three-game losing streak going into the playoffs. Tennessee can surprise, but their inconsistent offense seems ripe to be ripped apart by Houston's defense. TEXANS, 23-16
Washington Redskins (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Philly has their mojo back, having won three in a row after basically losing playoff candidacy at 4-8. Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense has been looking pretty good, though, so this won't be an easy game for the home team. I think the Eagles will pull off a late fourth quarter scoring drive to crack a tie game. EAGLES, 24-17
Late games:
Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Cincy needs a win to clinch the playoffs, Baltimore needs a win to clinch the division title. This is the type of contest we love to see on the last week of the season. This one is likely to be close, but the Ravens will be playing mean. They want the division title, and the playoff bye that comes with it. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will keep it close, but the tight Ravens defense will be the difference here. With projected losses by the Jets and Oakland, though, the Bengals could still make the playoffs. RAVENS, 23-20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7): The Chiefs have been a tough team of late, while Tebow magic has been fading. Denver needs a win to clinch the AFC West, but it certainly will not be easy. The Chiefs could pull off the upset, but I'm picking the Broncos, mainly because I don't want Oakland to win the division. BRONCOS, 20-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11): The Steelers need two things to happen to win the division: a victory over the Browns, and a Bengals victory over the Ravens. The first one seems very likely, even if Big Ben doesn't play. After all, he missed last week and the Steelers still won. The Browns offense is spotty, and will be pestered all afternoon by the Steelers defense. While Cincy may not do their part, that game will be close enough to keep the Steelers fans' hopes alive. STEELERS, 20-10
San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7): This is a tough game to pick. The Chargers stink on the road, but the Raiders haven't been great at home. The Chargers had won three of four prior to last week, while Oakland had gone 1-3 in that same span. The Chargers offense was anemic against the Lions last week, but the Raiders needed overtime to get past the surging Chiefs. This is basically a "pick-em" game. I'll choose the Chargers simply because I don't want Oakland to win. CHARGERS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Prior to last week's loss to the Bengals, the Cards had won four in a row. Their late season surge was reminiscent of the Seahawks last season. Seattle played San Fran close, nearly costing the 49ers a chance at a playoff bye. The Cardinals have been strong at home, which makes them an attractive pick. However, I like the job Marshawn Lynch has been doing running the ball. The Cardinals aren't too good at stopping a strong runner, so I think the Seahawks line will give Lynch enough room to get at least 120 yards, and propel the Seahawks to victory. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6): Nobody likes to "back in" to the playoffs, and that's just what happened for Atlanta. They want a strong victory to show they deserve the playoff spot, and the sputtering Bucs give them an excellent opportunity to do that. FALCONS, 27-17
Sunday night:
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7): The division title is on the line, so you know Romo will play. However, you have to wonder if his hand will slow him down. Although he did not suffer severe damage when he hit Jason Babin's helmet on Saturday, the severe swelling was a concern. The swelling has gone down, but the hand is still tender, causing some concern for the team. They return from the holidays today, so his presence and performance in practice is crucial. On the Giants side of the ball, Eli Manning seems to be regaining some of his early season form, thanks in large part to Victor Cruz. Cruz has been the receiver on a few amazing catches, including the 99-yard TD last week. If Cruz continues on form, Dallas' D can't stop them. GIANTS, 23-20
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (14-1) : The top team in the league relaxes this week, but they will probably stay on top
2. New Orleans Saints (12-3) : Brees has had a career season, surpassing Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-3) : Tightest defense in the league, they have perhaps the easiest game of the week
4. New England Patriots (12-3) : Top team in the AFC, they need a win to clinch home field advantage
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-4) : They need a win to clinch the AFC North
6. Houston Texans (10-5) : A two-game losing streak and yet this team still poses a huge threat
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) : Can still clinch AFC North despite two losses to the Ravens; they need some help, though
8. Detroit Lions (10-5) : They are showing force again, and could beat a resting Pack
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-6) : They made the playoffs, but they're showing some cracks
10. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) : Romo's hand injury could cause them to lose
Division rankings
1. AFC North : Despite Cleveland, this division has powerful teams; could provide both AFC wildcards
2. NFC North : Chicago's four-game slide has lowered this division
3. AFC East : With Buffalo finding their offense again, this division has no slouches; the Jets are the closest team to that
4. NFC South : With Carolina winning and scoring points, only Tampa Bay drags them down
5. NFC East : No outstanding team. You have to wonder if their division winner can win a playoff game
6. NFC West : Improvements by both Seattle and Arizona has lifted this division
7. AFC South : Indy's two-game winning streak hasn't been enough to compensate for Tennessee's sporadic performances
8. AFC West : Clearly the worst division. Despite Tebow magic, San Diego remains the only team with a positive point differential
Playoff races:
AFC: The Patriots and Texans have won their divisions. The AFC North winner will have a playoff bye, as will New England. This week determines who is first seed and second seed. Houston has clinched third seed, and the AFC West winner (which is still up in the air) has the fourth. The AFC North runner-up is fifth seed. Four teams are still contenting for the sixth slot.
New England, Baltimore, Denver, and Cincy control their own destinies. If the Pats win, they have the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. A Ravens win clinches the AFC North and a playoff bye. The Broncos win the AFC West with a win, and the Bengals wrap up the final playoff spot by beating Baltimore. Clearly, not all four of these can happen. A Bengals loss means they need the Jets and either the Raiders or Broncos to lose. A Broncos loss allows the Raiders a chance to win the division.
NFC: This one is fairly clear. Green Bay has the top seed, the NFC East winner is fourth seed, Detroit is fifth seed, and Atlanta is sixth seed. The only real contest is between New Orleans and San Fran for second and third seed. Here, the Saints control their destiny. A win clinches a playoff bye.
Early games:
Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (12-3): The Bills might have hoped that the Pats had already clinched the top seed, so they'd rest some starters. With the Pats chasing that mark, they won't show any mercy. The Bills are starting to regain their rhythm, but the Pats will knock it out of them. PATS, 34-21
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at New Orleans Saints (12-3): The Saints are playing for a playoff bye. Carolina won't make it easy, as their offense is strong, but the Saints offense is stronger. The Saints defense may have some holes, but the Panthers defense has more. SAINTS, 31-23
Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (3-12): Cutler may be healthy enough to play, but he might as well sit out. With the Bears out of playoff contention, this is a meaningless game. Besides, it seems like McCown can move the ball well enough, since the Vikings are weak. BEARS, 20-16
Detroit Lions (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (14-1): The Pack have already stated that they are resting many of their starters in the second half. That gives the Lions a chance to win this game and finish strongly (four wins) going into the playoffs. LIONS, 27-17
Indianapolis Colts (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-11): The Colts need to lose to stay in the hunt for Andrew Luck, but I don't think they will. The Colts offense is finally starting to click, while the Jags are pathetic. After 13 consecutive losses, the Colts finish with three victories. COLTS, 23-20
New York Jets (8-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-10): What a difference two weeks makes! Back then the Jets looked like a sure playoff team, having won three in a row. Miami was struggling with mediocrity. Now the Jets have imploded, and Miami is emerging. Despite their records, these two teams now have the same difference between points scored and points allowed. Miami's defense actually looks better than the Rex Ryan-run one in New York. For that reason, I have to pick Miami to upset the Jets at home and spoil any remaining playoff hopes for the Green Machine. DOLPHINS, 23-20
San Francisco 49ers (12-3) at St Louis Rams (2-13): A probable Colts victory ensures St Louis wins the right to Andrew Luck. 49ERS, 26-13
Tennessee Titans (8-7) at Houston Texans (10-5): Houston has lost two in a row. I don't think Coach Kubiak wants them to have a three-game losing streak going into the playoffs. Tennessee can surprise, but their inconsistent offense seems ripe to be ripped apart by Houston's defense. TEXANS, 23-16
Washington Redskins (5-10) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-8): Philly has their mojo back, having won three in a row after basically losing playoff candidacy at 4-8. Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense has been looking pretty good, though, so this won't be an easy game for the home team. I think the Eagles will pull off a late fourth quarter scoring drive to crack a tie game. EAGLES, 24-17
Late games:
Baltimore Ravens (11-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-6): Cincy needs a win to clinch the playoffs, Baltimore needs a win to clinch the division title. This is the type of contest we love to see on the last week of the season. This one is likely to be close, but the Ravens will be playing mean. They want the division title, and the playoff bye that comes with it. Andy Dalton and the Bengals will keep it close, but the tight Ravens defense will be the difference here. With projected losses by the Jets and Oakland, though, the Bengals could still make the playoffs. RAVENS, 23-20
Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) at Denver Broncos (8-7): The Chiefs have been a tough team of late, while Tebow magic has been fading. Denver needs a win to clinch the AFC West, but it certainly will not be easy. The Chiefs could pull off the upset, but I'm picking the Broncos, mainly because I don't want Oakland to win the division. BRONCOS, 20-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) at Cleveland Browns (4-11): The Steelers need two things to happen to win the division: a victory over the Browns, and a Bengals victory over the Ravens. The first one seems very likely, even if Big Ben doesn't play. After all, he missed last week and the Steelers still won. The Browns offense is spotty, and will be pestered all afternoon by the Steelers defense. While Cincy may not do their part, that game will be close enough to keep the Steelers fans' hopes alive. STEELERS, 20-10
San Diego Chargers (7-8) at Oakland Raiders (8-7): This is a tough game to pick. The Chargers stink on the road, but the Raiders haven't been great at home. The Chargers had won three of four prior to last week, while Oakland had gone 1-3 in that same span. The Chargers offense was anemic against the Lions last week, but the Raiders needed overtime to get past the surging Chiefs. This is basically a "pick-em" game. I'll choose the Chargers simply because I don't want Oakland to win. CHARGERS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks (7-8) at Arizona Cardinals (7-8): Prior to last week's loss to the Bengals, the Cards had won four in a row. Their late season surge was reminiscent of the Seahawks last season. Seattle played San Fran close, nearly costing the 49ers a chance at a playoff bye. The Cardinals have been strong at home, which makes them an attractive pick. However, I like the job Marshawn Lynch has been doing running the ball. The Cardinals aren't too good at stopping a strong runner, so I think the Seahawks line will give Lynch enough room to get at least 120 yards, and propel the Seahawks to victory. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) at Atlanta Falcons (9-6): Nobody likes to "back in" to the playoffs, and that's just what happened for Atlanta. They want a strong victory to show they deserve the playoff spot, and the sputtering Bucs give them an excellent opportunity to do that. FALCONS, 27-17
Sunday night:
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at New York Giants (8-7): The division title is on the line, so you know Romo will play. However, you have to wonder if his hand will slow him down. Although he did not suffer severe damage when he hit Jason Babin's helmet on Saturday, the severe swelling was a concern. The swelling has gone down, but the hand is still tender, causing some concern for the team. They return from the holidays today, so his presence and performance in practice is crucial. On the Giants side of the ball, Eli Manning seems to be regaining some of his early season form, thanks in large part to Victor Cruz. Cruz has been the receiver on a few amazing catches, including the 99-yard TD last week. If Cruz continues on form, Dallas' D can't stop them. GIANTS, 23-20
Thursday, December 22, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 16 picks
The playoff picture is clearing up, Green Bay lost their first game the same week Indy wins their first, and the league plays mostly on Saturday this week, giving their players Christmas Day off. Only Chicago has to travel to play an away game Christmas night, and they don't travel far to face division rival Green Bay.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers : Despite a loss, the Pack are still the most dangerous team in the league
2. New Orleans Saints : Right now, this team has the most dangerous offense in the league
3. San Francisco 49ers : And this team has the toughest defense
4. New England Patriots : The most ingenious and innovative coach lives here
5. Houston Texans : TJ Yates has kept this team on track for the playoffs, establishing a 3-2 record since he took over. He's doing better than Caleb Hanie, which is why Hanie won't be starting anymore
6. Baltimore Ravens : A powerful team who is chasing Houston for second place in the AFC
7. Pittsburgh Steelers : Even with a hurt QB, the Steelers continue to charge
8. Detroit Lions : The Lions squeezed out a win, and remain ahead of Atlanta
9. Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons can see a playoff spot
10. Dallas Cowboys : Still leading the NFC East, a win this week gives them a playoff spot
Division rankings
1. NFC North : The Bears and Vikings are struggling, but Detroit's winning streak keeps them on top
2. AFC East : A close contest with the AFC North, the East has teams clustered closer together, despite the Bills' long losing streak
3. AFC North : Cincy won, so this division is fighting for second place
4. NFC South : New Orleans and Atlanta lead this division strongly
5. NFC East : Not a great week for this division
6. NFC West : Seattle's three-game winning streak boosts this division
7. AFC South : Indy's win helped
8. AFC West : This division has such a gap that they should remain on the bottom the rest of the season
Playoff race
AFC: New England wins the East and leads in the race for home field advantage. Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston all trail by one. Baltimore still holds the tiebreaker in the ever-close AFC North race. Denver leads the West by one game. Cincy and the Jets are competing for the sixth playoff spot, although Tennessee, Oakland, and San Diego are chasing them for it.
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran won their divisions. New Orleans leads by two and clinches with a win over Atlanta. Dallas leads the East by a game, but things look tough. Green Bay has the top seed while New Orleans and the 49ers battle for second place. Atlanta and Detroit lead the race for the wildcard spots, and a win by each clinches it. The Bears, Giants, Seahawks, and Cards have an outside chance, but they need to win out and hope Atlanta and Detroit loses both of their remaining games -- such a scenario seems unlikely.
Thursday game
Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13): The Colts won last week, but I don't think they'll win two in a row. The Texans will not rest their starters for the playoffs, as they are battling for a bye week. That makes their defense too strong for the struggling Colts offense to overcome. The Colts defense isn't great, either, and Yates has shown tremendous ability to move the ball. TEXANS, 27-17
Saturday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6): Both teams still have playoff aspirations, but the Bengals have a better shot. They also have the better offense, although the Cards have been known to put together some strong games. The Bengals have gotten out of their slump, and are now challenging for the second and last wildcard spot. I think Kolb and company will give them a tough time, but the Bengals should be able to pull this one out. BENGALS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4): The Ravens know they have to keep winning if they want to win the division; that tiebreaker only works if they end up with as many wins as the Steelers. With Pittsburgh facing the lowly Rams this week, the Ravens won't let up. They have typically owned these "old Browns versus new Browns" games, and I think they will again. RAVENS, 23-16
Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9): The Broncos win streak ended, but mainly because they went away from their game plan. They may return to it for this game, but I'm sure they'll even fall behind too much. The Bills offense has been sputtering badly, and they can't even blame that on injuries. The Broncos need a win and losses by both Oakland and San Diego to win the division. I'm not sure they'll get all of that, but a win here should be likely. BRONCOS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7): Tennessee still has remote playoff chances, but they need to win out. They should be able to win here. TITANS, 23-16
Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots are chasing home field advantage, so they won't slack off in this game. The Dolphins pulled out a win last week, but their play has been too inconsistent to believe they can pull off this upset. PATS, 30-20
Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9): You know, if the Colts can win another game, the Vikings might have a shot at Andrew Luck. They like Christian Ponder, though, and it's not Ponder's fault that the team has struggled so mightily this season. The defense hasn't been able to stop a fly, and Adrian Peterson isn't moving very quickly. Rex Grossman played against the Vikings enough to know how to read their defense, and they aren't fast enough to fluster him. REDSKINS, 27-21
New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6): This game could go either way. Both offenses can (and have at different times this season) sputter, and neither defense has shown the type of strength expected from them. Technically, this is a home game for both of them. I'll favor the Jets just because they might get nastier (which can be helpful when you are chasing a playoff berth), but don't be surprised if the Giants win. JETS, 17-16
Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8): The Chiefs knocked the Packers of their unbeaten pedestal; will they suffer from an emotional letdown? Orton has provided a great spark to this team, helping interim coach Romeo Crennel to his first win leading the Chiefs. He might do it again against the Raiders, likely knocking them out of the playoff hunt. I'll pick the Raiders because they can be nasty to divisional opponents, but watch for another Orton-led victory. RAIDERS, 20-17
St Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): The Steelers are battling for the division title, and they need to keep winning. That should be easy against the hapless Rams, who might find themselves in the market for Andrew Luck, especially considering that Sam Bradford has one of the worst quarterback ratings in the league. STEELERS, 20-13
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-11) at Carolina Panthers (5-9): Tampa's defense has collapsed this season. Given the number of yards that Cam Newton and company generate each game, there is no way Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will get close enough to win. PANTHERS, 30-20
Saturday late games:
Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6): The Eagles would love to play spoiler, especially since a divisional win would give them the tiebreaker in a three-way tie with Dallas and the Giants for the division title. They have the tools to do it, you just wonder if they have the incentive. Philly has been playing like a team "going through the motions" nearly all season. Can they perk up now? Also, will they be assisted by a Dallas December collapse? The Cowboys seem to be successfully preventing their annual collapse this year, which is why they hold the lead in the division. If they can successfully hold it off, they should win this game. They will know if a win will clinch the division, too; if the Jets win, the Cowboys have additional incentive to win. COWBOYS, 27-23
San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (8-6): Both teams are chasing playoff spots. If the Lions were still sputtering, I'd pick the Chargers easily. Now, I'm not so sure. The Chargers have STUNK on the road this season, despite winning their last road outing. Also, the Lions are perfect against the AFC. I like Detroit to win this game and clinch a playoff berth. LIONS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7): Oh brother, the 49ers better watch out! Seattle, like last year at this time, is getting hot, while the 49ers have been a bit lackluster the past couple of weeks. San Fran knows that a first week playoff bye is on the line, but Seattle still has hopes for the playoffs. Both teams have much at stake. I'll pick the 49ers, but they need to pick up the pace. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night:
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1): The Packers perfect season has evaporated, but they won't slow down. The Bears have finally given up on Caleb Hanie, and brought back Luke McCown. McCown hasn't been playing since he was cut by Carolina in 2009. He knows Martz' system, but can he start strongly enough to keep pace with the Packers? The stingy Bears defense will help, but I think McCown will have too much to overcome to win his first start in four years. PACK, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3): This game has all of the excitement. The Saints clinch their division with a win, and place themselves in strong contention for a playoff bye. The Falcons can gain tiebreaker points over the Saints, trail them by only a game, and clinch a playoff berth with a win. The obstacle for Atlanta? The Saints offense. The Falcons defense isn't strong enough to stop them. The question is whether they can be slowed enough for Atlanta to keep pace. I think the Falcons might be successful early, but the Saints offense will wear down the Falcons defense, allowing the Saints to pull away in the fourth quarter. SAINTS, 30-20
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers : Despite a loss, the Pack are still the most dangerous team in the league
2. New Orleans Saints : Right now, this team has the most dangerous offense in the league
3. San Francisco 49ers : And this team has the toughest defense
4. New England Patriots : The most ingenious and innovative coach lives here
5. Houston Texans : TJ Yates has kept this team on track for the playoffs, establishing a 3-2 record since he took over. He's doing better than Caleb Hanie, which is why Hanie won't be starting anymore
6. Baltimore Ravens : A powerful team who is chasing Houston for second place in the AFC
7. Pittsburgh Steelers : Even with a hurt QB, the Steelers continue to charge
8. Detroit Lions : The Lions squeezed out a win, and remain ahead of Atlanta
9. Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons can see a playoff spot
10. Dallas Cowboys : Still leading the NFC East, a win this week gives them a playoff spot
Division rankings
1. NFC North : The Bears and Vikings are struggling, but Detroit's winning streak keeps them on top
2. AFC East : A close contest with the AFC North, the East has teams clustered closer together, despite the Bills' long losing streak
3. AFC North : Cincy won, so this division is fighting for second place
4. NFC South : New Orleans and Atlanta lead this division strongly
5. NFC East : Not a great week for this division
6. NFC West : Seattle's three-game winning streak boosts this division
7. AFC South : Indy's win helped
8. AFC West : This division has such a gap that they should remain on the bottom the rest of the season
Playoff race
AFC: New England wins the East and leads in the race for home field advantage. Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston all trail by one. Baltimore still holds the tiebreaker in the ever-close AFC North race. Denver leads the West by one game. Cincy and the Jets are competing for the sixth playoff spot, although Tennessee, Oakland, and San Diego are chasing them for it.
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran won their divisions. New Orleans leads by two and clinches with a win over Atlanta. Dallas leads the East by a game, but things look tough. Green Bay has the top seed while New Orleans and the 49ers battle for second place. Atlanta and Detroit lead the race for the wildcard spots, and a win by each clinches it. The Bears, Giants, Seahawks, and Cards have an outside chance, but they need to win out and hope Atlanta and Detroit loses both of their remaining games -- such a scenario seems unlikely.
Thursday game
Houston Texans (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-13): The Colts won last week, but I don't think they'll win two in a row. The Texans will not rest their starters for the playoffs, as they are battling for a bye week. That makes their defense too strong for the struggling Colts offense to overcome. The Colts defense isn't great, either, and Yates has shown tremendous ability to move the ball. TEXANS, 27-17
Saturday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6): Both teams still have playoff aspirations, but the Bengals have a better shot. They also have the better offense, although the Cards have been known to put together some strong games. The Bengals have gotten out of their slump, and are now challenging for the second and last wildcard spot. I think Kolb and company will give them a tough time, but the Bengals should be able to pull this one out. BENGALS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns (4-10) at Baltimore Ravens (10-4): The Ravens know they have to keep winning if they want to win the division; that tiebreaker only works if they end up with as many wins as the Steelers. With Pittsburgh facing the lowly Rams this week, the Ravens won't let up. They have typically owned these "old Browns versus new Browns" games, and I think they will again. RAVENS, 23-16
Denver Broncos (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9): The Broncos win streak ended, but mainly because they went away from their game plan. They may return to it for this game, but I'm sure they'll even fall behind too much. The Bills offense has been sputtering badly, and they can't even blame that on injuries. The Broncos need a win and losses by both Oakland and San Diego to win the division. I'm not sure they'll get all of that, but a win here should be likely. BRONCOS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10) at Tennessee Titans (7-7): Tennessee still has remote playoff chances, but they need to win out. They should be able to win here. TITANS, 23-16
Miami Dolphins (5-9) at New England Patriots (11-3): The Patriots are chasing home field advantage, so they won't slack off in this game. The Dolphins pulled out a win last week, but their play has been too inconsistent to believe they can pull off this upset. PATS, 30-20
Minnesota Vikings (2-12) at Washington Redskins (5-9): You know, if the Colts can win another game, the Vikings might have a shot at Andrew Luck. They like Christian Ponder, though, and it's not Ponder's fault that the team has struggled so mightily this season. The defense hasn't been able to stop a fly, and Adrian Peterson isn't moving very quickly. Rex Grossman played against the Vikings enough to know how to read their defense, and they aren't fast enough to fluster him. REDSKINS, 27-21
New York Giants (7-7) at New York Jets (8-6): This game could go either way. Both offenses can (and have at different times this season) sputter, and neither defense has shown the type of strength expected from them. Technically, this is a home game for both of them. I'll favor the Jets just because they might get nastier (which can be helpful when you are chasing a playoff berth), but don't be surprised if the Giants win. JETS, 17-16
Oakland Raiders (7-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-8): The Chiefs knocked the Packers of their unbeaten pedestal; will they suffer from an emotional letdown? Orton has provided a great spark to this team, helping interim coach Romeo Crennel to his first win leading the Chiefs. He might do it again against the Raiders, likely knocking them out of the playoff hunt. I'll pick the Raiders because they can be nasty to divisional opponents, but watch for another Orton-led victory. RAIDERS, 20-17
St Louis Rams (2-12) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4): The Steelers are battling for the division title, and they need to keep winning. That should be easy against the hapless Rams, who might find themselves in the market for Andrew Luck, especially considering that Sam Bradford has one of the worst quarterback ratings in the league. STEELERS, 20-13
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-11) at Carolina Panthers (5-9): Tampa's defense has collapsed this season. Given the number of yards that Cam Newton and company generate each game, there is no way Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense will get close enough to win. PANTHERS, 30-20
Saturday late games:
Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6): The Eagles would love to play spoiler, especially since a divisional win would give them the tiebreaker in a three-way tie with Dallas and the Giants for the division title. They have the tools to do it, you just wonder if they have the incentive. Philly has been playing like a team "going through the motions" nearly all season. Can they perk up now? Also, will they be assisted by a Dallas December collapse? The Cowboys seem to be successfully preventing their annual collapse this year, which is why they hold the lead in the division. If they can successfully hold it off, they should win this game. They will know if a win will clinch the division, too; if the Jets win, the Cowboys have additional incentive to win. COWBOYS, 27-23
San Diego Chargers (7-7) at Detroit Lions (8-6): Both teams are chasing playoff spots. If the Lions were still sputtering, I'd pick the Chargers easily. Now, I'm not so sure. The Chargers have STUNK on the road this season, despite winning their last road outing. Also, the Lions are perfect against the AFC. I like Detroit to win this game and clinch a playoff berth. LIONS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (7-7): Oh brother, the 49ers better watch out! Seattle, like last year at this time, is getting hot, while the 49ers have been a bit lackluster the past couple of weeks. San Fran knows that a first week playoff bye is on the line, but Seattle still has hopes for the playoffs. Both teams have much at stake. I'll pick the 49ers, but they need to pick up the pace. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night:
Chicago Bears (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (13-1): The Packers perfect season has evaporated, but they won't slow down. The Bears have finally given up on Caleb Hanie, and brought back Luke McCown. McCown hasn't been playing since he was cut by Carolina in 2009. He knows Martz' system, but can he start strongly enough to keep pace with the Packers? The stingy Bears defense will help, but I think McCown will have too much to overcome to win his first start in four years. PACK, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (11-3): This game has all of the excitement. The Saints clinch their division with a win, and place themselves in strong contention for a playoff bye. The Falcons can gain tiebreaker points over the Saints, trail them by only a game, and clinch a playoff berth with a win. The obstacle for Atlanta? The Saints offense. The Falcons defense isn't strong enough to stop them. The question is whether they can be slowed enough for Atlanta to keep pace. I think the Falcons might be successful early, but the Saints offense will wear down the Falcons defense, allowing the Saints to pull away in the fourth quarter. SAINTS, 30-20
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 15 picks
Saturday games begin this week, competing with college bowl games. It's the fun time of the year. Playoff slots are starting to fill, too.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (13-0) : They slaughtered the Raiders as that unbeaten season looms larger
2. New Orleans Saints (10-3) : The Saints clinched a playoff spot as they are battling San Fran for the second seed
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) : Surprised by the Cards, the 49ers are now playing catch-up for a playoff bye
4 (tie). New England Patriots (10-3) : They got a scare against the Redskins, but the Pats clinched the playoffs and maintained their lead over the Jets
4 (tie). Houston Texans (10-3) : The Texans clinched their first division title ever and continue to battle for home field advantage
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) : They maintain their edge over Pittsburgh and the rest of the conference
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) : The Steelers are still a tough team, with the toughest defense in the AFC, and they clinched the playoffs this week, too
8. Detroit Lions (8-5) : They regained their winning ways, but it wasn't pretty
9. New York Jets (8-5) : Still a threat and in the playoff hunt
10. Chicago Bears (7-6) : They may have opened the door to another Tebow comeback, but they did show that they can move the ball with Hanie
Division standings
1. NFC North : Three top ten teams make them strong, but the Bears are falling and the Vikings are dragging them down
2. AFC East : The Dolphins are improving, as are the Jets.
3. AFC North : As Cincy slides, so does the division
4. NFC South : Atlanta is improving, so the strength of the Saints elevates them
5. NFC East : Philly won big and New York ended their losing streak. Is an upward swing on the rise?
6. AFC South : Houston holds position while Tennessee holds their own
7. NFC West : Seattle looked good and Arizona upset San Fran, so the division is moving up
8. AFC West : San Diego finally has a positive point differential, but this division is still weak
Playoff race
AFC: Houston won the first division title of the conference. The Pats, Ravens, and Steelers all clinched playoff spots. Denver leads the West and the Jets lead the race for the sixth spot
NFC: Green Bay clinches the top seed and the Saints clinch a playoff spot. The 49ers loss creates a dead heat for second seed. Dallas and the Giants are now tied for the East title. Detroit and Atlanta lead the wildcard race.
Thursday game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5) : The Falcons maintain their hold on the NFC wildcard race with a win here. The Jags can have flashes of brilliance, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons are starting to gel again. FALCONS, 24-16
Saturday's game:
Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-10): Dallas doesn't have to worry too much about their traditional December collapse, because the Bucs have already collapsed. Dallas gets to take a half game lead on the Giants. COWBOYS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3): It's time for Cam Newton to face a REAL NFL defense. This one might be closer than Houston would like, but TJ Yates is improving, and their crushing defense will slow the Newton express. TEXANS, 27-20
Ciucinnati Bengals (7-6) at St Louis Rams (2-11): Ah, the Bengals get to stop their downward skid with an easy game against a struggling team. I don't think Sam Bradford's injury will be completely healed, so he will once again swap time with Kellen Clements. Cincy's defense should bleed less this game, as there is less to stop. Andy Dalton and the offense should have an easy time slicing through the weak Rams defense. BENGALS, 30-13
Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8): They have clinched the top seed in the NFC, so one wonders if they will slack off to prevent injury. It wasn't THAT long ago that the Pack failed to reach the playoffs due to late season injuries, so they know the danger. Fortuntately, they won't have to worry too much against the Chiefs. They are weak enough that the Pack can put in the second string in the second half and still win this game. PACK, 27-17
Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8): Miami is starting to look good, especially on defense. The offense took a step up when JP Losman stepped in for Matt Moore. The Dolphins might play him this week, as he knows his old team well. I think the Bills' slide will contineu. I'm not even sure a Dolphins victory would constitute an upset at this point. DOLPHINS, 26-20
New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11): The Saints are chasing San Fran for the first week playoff bye, and they see a chance. With the 49ers playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football, the Saints know a win here gives them an edge. That win shouldn't be difficult, as the Vikings defense is porous. The Saints will allow the Vikings to score, but not enough to keep pace with the Saints. SAINTS, 34-20
Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6): The Seahawks looked good last week, but they have rarely strung two good weeks together this season. Furthermore, the Bears know they let last week's game slip away, as they led 10-0 in the fourth quarter. With Hanie starting to look better and Marion Barber getting comfortable in his starting role, I think the Bears bear down and win this thing. BEARS, 20-17
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13): A winless season for the Colts is starting to seem eminent. Tennessee may have lost their shot at competing for the divistion title, but the playoffs are still in reach, so they will play hard against a hapless Colts team. TITANS, 26-13
Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6): Both teams woke up last week. Which one stays awake? The Giants are battling for the division title, so they certainly have more incentive. Eli has been having a good year; I think he can keep it up. GIANTS, 27-20
Sunday late games:
Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7): The Cards rose again last week as Kevin Kolb showed why the Cards wanted him. With Cleveland struggling, the Cards have a chance to impress again. CARDS, 20-13
Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6): Oakland just suffered a tough loss to the Packers, so they want revenge on the NFC North. The Lions are finding their rhythm again, so that will be a tall order. With the Lions chasing a long-awaited playoff berth, they have even more incentive to play hard. LIONS, 28-23
New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5): With the Patriots' patchwork defense, they have to be concerned about another Tebow comeback. The Pats will take an early lead and hold it into ihe fourth, but that's when Tebow is most dangerous. He could do it again, but I'll pick the Pats. If anyone can keep his team conscious of the dangers of letting Tebow loose, it's Bill Belichick. PATS, 30-23
New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8): The Jets are chasing a playoff spot. For the Eagles, it's pretty much over. They aren't the type to give up, but they haven't been playing especially hard this season, and I see no reason for that to change. JETS, 23-17
Sunday night:
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7): The Chargers offense is back on a roll, but they face a real challenge in the Ravens defense. The Chargers are strong enough to move the ball, but the Ravens will slow them down, and stuff them on some trips across midfield. The Chargers defense is somewhat lacking, so the Ravens will get opportunities to score. The lead may change a few times in this game, but the visitors defense will win out in the end. RAVENS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3): This might be the best game of the week. Two powerful defenses clash in what will be a slow, grinding game of yards. With Big Ben's status questionable, and Frank Gore the principal gainer for the 49ers, this will be a ground game. If San Fran hadn't been upset last week, I'd give the edge to the Steelers. However, the 49ers are desperate to win, especially since the Saints will likely have a half game lead on the playoff bye at the start of this game. 49ERS, 20-17
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (13-0) : They slaughtered the Raiders as that unbeaten season looms larger
2. New Orleans Saints (10-3) : The Saints clinched a playoff spot as they are battling San Fran for the second seed
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-3) : Surprised by the Cards, the 49ers are now playing catch-up for a playoff bye
4 (tie). New England Patriots (10-3) : They got a scare against the Redskins, but the Pats clinched the playoffs and maintained their lead over the Jets
4 (tie). Houston Texans (10-3) : The Texans clinched their first division title ever and continue to battle for home field advantage
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-3) : They maintain their edge over Pittsburgh and the rest of the conference
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) : The Steelers are still a tough team, with the toughest defense in the AFC, and they clinched the playoffs this week, too
8. Detroit Lions (8-5) : They regained their winning ways, but it wasn't pretty
9. New York Jets (8-5) : Still a threat and in the playoff hunt
10. Chicago Bears (7-6) : They may have opened the door to another Tebow comeback, but they did show that they can move the ball with Hanie
Division standings
1. NFC North : Three top ten teams make them strong, but the Bears are falling and the Vikings are dragging them down
2. AFC East : The Dolphins are improving, as are the Jets.
3. AFC North : As Cincy slides, so does the division
4. NFC South : Atlanta is improving, so the strength of the Saints elevates them
5. NFC East : Philly won big and New York ended their losing streak. Is an upward swing on the rise?
6. AFC South : Houston holds position while Tennessee holds their own
7. NFC West : Seattle looked good and Arizona upset San Fran, so the division is moving up
8. AFC West : San Diego finally has a positive point differential, but this division is still weak
Playoff race
AFC: Houston won the first division title of the conference. The Pats, Ravens, and Steelers all clinched playoff spots. Denver leads the West and the Jets lead the race for the sixth spot
NFC: Green Bay clinches the top seed and the Saints clinch a playoff spot. The 49ers loss creates a dead heat for second seed. Dallas and the Giants are now tied for the East title. Detroit and Atlanta lead the wildcard race.
Thursday game:
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5) : The Falcons maintain their hold on the NFC wildcard race with a win here. The Jags can have flashes of brilliance, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons are starting to gel again. FALCONS, 24-16
Saturday's game:
Dallas Cowboys (7-6) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-10): Dallas doesn't have to worry too much about their traditional December collapse, because the Bucs have already collapsed. Dallas gets to take a half game lead on the Giants. COWBOYS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers (4-9) at Houston Texans (10-3): It's time for Cam Newton to face a REAL NFL defense. This one might be closer than Houston would like, but TJ Yates is improving, and their crushing defense will slow the Newton express. TEXANS, 27-20
Ciucinnati Bengals (7-6) at St Louis Rams (2-11): Ah, the Bengals get to stop their downward skid with an easy game against a struggling team. I don't think Sam Bradford's injury will be completely healed, so he will once again swap time with Kellen Clements. Cincy's defense should bleed less this game, as there is less to stop. Andy Dalton and the offense should have an easy time slicing through the weak Rams defense. BENGALS, 30-13
Green Bay Packers (13-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-8): They have clinched the top seed in the NFC, so one wonders if they will slack off to prevent injury. It wasn't THAT long ago that the Pack failed to reach the playoffs due to late season injuries, so they know the danger. Fortuntately, they won't have to worry too much against the Chiefs. They are weak enough that the Pack can put in the second string in the second half and still win this game. PACK, 27-17
Miami Dolphins (4-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-8): Miami is starting to look good, especially on defense. The offense took a step up when JP Losman stepped in for Matt Moore. The Dolphins might play him this week, as he knows his old team well. I think the Bills' slide will contineu. I'm not even sure a Dolphins victory would constitute an upset at this point. DOLPHINS, 26-20
New Orleans Saints (10-3) at Minnesota Vikings (2-11): The Saints are chasing San Fran for the first week playoff bye, and they see a chance. With the 49ers playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football, the Saints know a win here gives them an edge. That win shouldn't be difficult, as the Vikings defense is porous. The Saints will allow the Vikings to score, but not enough to keep pace with the Saints. SAINTS, 34-20
Seattle Seahawks (6-7) at Chicago Bears (7-6): The Seahawks looked good last week, but they have rarely strung two good weeks together this season. Furthermore, the Bears know they let last week's game slip away, as they led 10-0 in the fourth quarter. With Hanie starting to look better and Marion Barber getting comfortable in his starting role, I think the Bears bear down and win this thing. BEARS, 20-17
Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Indianapolis Colts (0-13): A winless season for the Colts is starting to seem eminent. Tennessee may have lost their shot at competing for the divistion title, but the playoffs are still in reach, so they will play hard against a hapless Colts team. TITANS, 26-13
Washington Redskins (4-9) at New York Giants (7-6): Both teams woke up last week. Which one stays awake? The Giants are battling for the division title, so they certainly have more incentive. Eli has been having a good year; I think he can keep it up. GIANTS, 27-20
Sunday late games:
Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7): The Cards rose again last week as Kevin Kolb showed why the Cards wanted him. With Cleveland struggling, the Cards have a chance to impress again. CARDS, 20-13
Detroit Lions (8-5) at Oakland Raiders (7-6): Oakland just suffered a tough loss to the Packers, so they want revenge on the NFC North. The Lions are finding their rhythm again, so that will be a tall order. With the Lions chasing a long-awaited playoff berth, they have even more incentive to play hard. LIONS, 28-23
New England Patriots (10-3) at Denver Broncos (8-5): With the Patriots' patchwork defense, they have to be concerned about another Tebow comeback. The Pats will take an early lead and hold it into ihe fourth, but that's when Tebow is most dangerous. He could do it again, but I'll pick the Pats. If anyone can keep his team conscious of the dangers of letting Tebow loose, it's Bill Belichick. PATS, 30-23
New York Jets (8-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-8): The Jets are chasing a playoff spot. For the Eagles, it's pretty much over. They aren't the type to give up, but they haven't been playing especially hard this season, and I see no reason for that to change. JETS, 23-17
Sunday night:
Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (6-7): The Chargers offense is back on a roll, but they face a real challenge in the Ravens defense. The Chargers are strong enough to move the ball, but the Ravens will slow them down, and stuff them on some trips across midfield. The Chargers defense is somewhat lacking, so the Ravens will get opportunities to score. The lead may change a few times in this game, but the visitors defense will win out in the end. RAVENS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at San Francisco 49ers (10-3): This might be the best game of the week. Two powerful defenses clash in what will be a slow, grinding game of yards. With Big Ben's status questionable, and Frank Gore the principal gainer for the 49ers, this will be a ground game. If San Fran hadn't been upset last week, I'd give the edge to the Steelers. However, the 49ers are desperate to win, especially since the Saints will likely have a half game lead on the playoff bye at the start of this game. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday, December 11, 2011
NCAA 2011 Bowl picks
Welcome to the first of two columns where I pick the NCAA bowl winners. In this one, I cover all of the games in December, except for two long-running bowls, the Sun Bowl and Liberty Bowl. Those two will be covered in the next column.
This year the bowl committees arranged some interesting matchups. I am shocked by a few things, however. I do not understand why TCU and Boise State, two Top Ten teams who have proven success in prestiguous bowls, were consigned to such minor bowls against weak opponents. It's almost like these former BCS busters were being punished. The Poinsettia Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl will be horribly one-sided affairs. So will the Hawaii Bowl, which pairs Conference USA winner Southern Miss against Nevada.
One team is only playing a bowl game due to a technicality. UCLA hs become only the second team in NCAA history with a losing record playing in a bowl game. At 6-7, they should not be playing in a bowl, despite being bowl eligible. They played in the Pac-12 Championshp simply because USC was on probation. They lost that game, despite playing above themselves. There is no reason they should be playing in a bowl, other than a shortage of bowl eligible teams from the major conferences (that is why the SEC does NOT have the most bowl teams, a record they've had for the past three years). The only advantage to this situation is that Illinois has a bowl opponent they might actually beat.
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Temple Owls (8-4) v Wyoming Cowboys (8-4): The first bowl will likely be one of the closest. These two teams are equally tough, with similar philosophies. Both teams prefer to run; Temple is simply better at it. Wyoming can put together a passing attack if necessary, while Temple is pretty much grounded. That ability may benefit Wyoming, as Temple has one of the stingiest ground defenses in the FBS. That defense gives Temple the advantage in the game. TEMPLE
IDAHO BOWL -- Ohio Bobcats (9-4) v Utah St Aggies (7-5): Ohio failed to win the MAC title, and as punishment they play one of the earliest bowls. They get Utah State, a tricky opponent who gave opponents problems throughout the season. While Utah State will have some good plays, I expect Ohio to dominate this game. OHIO
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt has a tricky bowl history. Sometimes they have done well (2-0), other times terribly (0-2). This year they have three teams in the bowls, tied for the most they've ever had. They went 2-1 that year. Can they repeat, or even improve, that success? The Ragin' Cajuns were the rage in conference games, racking up a 6-2 record and, at one time, competing for the conference title. They even flirted with a Top 25 ranking. However, the Cajuns were not great out of conference, and their history of close games makes one question what would happen if they had to come from behind. I have to favor the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE
ST PETERSBURG BOWL -- Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6): We follow a Sun Belt loss with a Sun Belt win. The Golden Panthers have a strong defense and a well-balanced offense. Marshall is a streaky team that has no viable running game to fall back upon. Considering the strength of Florida International's defense, that lack of a running game will hurt Marshall. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
POINSETTIA BOWL -- #10 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4): Not much to say here. We've seen the power of TCU during the season, while Louisiana Tech did little outside of the WAC. TCU
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) v #6 Boise State Broncos (11-1): The Sun Devils had talent, but they relied too much on a struggling quarterback. Boise State has too many weapons for the Sun Devils to stop, and Arizona State is not equipped to come back from a large deficit. BOISE STATE
HAWAII BOWL -- Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v #14 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2): I don't know why the Conference USA winner ends up here, rather than a more prestiguous bowl. I will admit, spending time in Hawaii is attractive, but Southern Miss has already been criticized by costing their conference valuable BCS money by beating Houston. I suspect the bowl representatives had already made up their minds about the Golden Eagles before the Conference USA title game, as Houston still ended up with a New Year's Day game. As a reward for costing the conference that money, Southern Miss goes to Hawaii and scores an easy win. SOUTHERN MISS
INDEPENDENCE BOWL -- Missouri Tigers (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5): North Carolina has an unbeaten non-conference record, but they played fairly easy opponents. I'm more impressed with the highly-ranked running game of the Tigers. Missouri is considered one of the best running teams in the nation, and that can exhaust defenses. Missouri will not have the services of Coach Gary Pinkel, who was suspended after a DUI arrest. That might give North Carolina an advantage, but the Tigers are dedicating this game to their beloved coach. MISSOURI
LITTLE CAESARS DETROIT BOWL -- Western Michigan Broncos (7-6) v Purdue Boilermakers (6-6): In what is practically a home game for the Broncos, they face their fourth Big Ten team in 2011. They lost the previous three, so you'd think they'd be concerned. However, Purdue's stats are not good. Yes, they were able to win a couple of games they weren't expected to win, but overall Purdue was not a great team in the Big Ten. WESTERN MICHIGAN
BELK BOWL -- Louisville Cardinals (7-5) v NC State Wolfpack (7-5): Louisville came from nowhere to win a share of the Big East title. They are perfectly equipped for a bowl win. They struggled early, but came together to win five of their last six games. Those games pitted Louisville against their toughest opponents (except Cincy, who beat them right before that streak), and they stepped up. How did they succeed in those games? A strong defense. That's a great tool to have in a bowl game, especially against a team that wins as much on emotion as talent. If that defense shuts down the NC State offense, expect the Wolfpack to lose their heads, rack up penalties, and basically give the game to Louisville. LOUISVILLE
MILITARY BOWL -- Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (7-5): Let's face it, the Rockets are in a "no win" situation. This is the Military Bowl, so the service academy is the emotional favorite. Also, their coach already has his next job sealed - coaching my Alma Mater, the Illinois Fighting Illini. What could inspire the Rockets to win? I think the players want to send their coach out with a win, especially in recognition of what he's done for them. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last year, Coach Beckman led them to an 8-4 record. They were supposed to improve this year, so some people consider their 8-4 record a disappointment. The players don't want this "disappointment" to extend to the bowl game. While I'm sure they will be booed every time they score, as the largely military audience will be rooting for Air Force, the Top Ten offense of Toledo will simply score too much for the more conservative Falcons to overcome. TOLEDO
HOLIDAY BOWL -- California Golden Bears (7-5) v Texas Longhorns (7-6): The Holiday Bowl typically features lots of scoring, and this year may be no exception. While their defense is solid, Texas and California both have tools to score, and score often. Texas prefers to run while Cal prefers to pass. Texas' Case McCoy has had a bit of an interception problem in later games, but Texas comes back well from those. Texas' record is influenced by huge losses to four Top 25 teams. I like Texas' chances to succeed here. TEXAS
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL -- Florida State Seminoles (8-4) v #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): This is a great matchup of two historic teams. Florida State has a great record in bowl games, but they struggle against strong programs. Penn State embarrased them two years ago, and now Notre Dame has the chance. Notre Dame lost only two games by more than three points, and both of those were to Top 25 Pac-12 teams (USC and Stanford). Both of those had powerful offenses, a feature lacking in the Seminoles. Florida State has won with defensive battles, but Notre Dame's defense isn't bad, either. NOTRE DAME
ALAMO BOWL -- Washington Huskies (7-5) v #25 Baylor Bears (9-3): With the Heisman Trophy in hand, Robert Griffin III gets a chance to win this game, and win it big. This will likely be his last college game, so you know he wants it to count. His passing accuracy and arm speed will play havok against one of the worst defenses in the country. This one will be decided early in the second quarter, as Baylor will open a four score lead before halftime. BAYLOR
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- BYU Cougars (9-3) v Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-4): Apparently the Military Bowl had to be created because the Armed Forces Bowl decided not to invite a service academy. By record, these teams seem closely matched. If you observe their respective opponents, though, you realize that BYU faced tougher opponents, and is a much tougher team. BYU
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) v Iowa State Cyclones (6-6): The tricky and unpredictable Iowa State Cyclones travel half the country to face Jersey-based Rutgers in favorable territory. Iowa State is known for their shocking wins over then-ranked Texas Tech and Top Five Oklahoma State. However, a more interesting fact is Rutgers and Iowa State's performances against a common opponent. Both teams faced UConn this season. Rutgers lost by twenty points, Iowa State won by four. The Cyclones didn't lose a single non-conference game. Iowa State's losses are all to Top 25 (or nearly so, in Missouri's case) teams, while Rutgers struggled against weaker teams. Upsets happen in bowl games, and I'm picking one here. IOWA STATE
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6): For this game, I am also influenced by strength of schedule. They play in the SEC, recently the toughest conference in the country (although not this year -- the Big XII was). They beat all of the non-conference opponents they faced. Their losses were all to ranked teams, except for a close contest against Auburn. Wake ended the season with a HUGE loss to SEC Vanderbilt. I have to favor the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
INSIGHT BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v #15 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3): The bowl representatives didn't tip the scales against the Big Ten as much as they typically do, but this matchup is definitely designed to embarrass the Big Ten. They pit the offensively-challenged Hawkeyes against one of the strongest offenses in the country. This one won't be pretty for Big Ten fans like myself. OKLAHOMA
TEXAS BOWL -- Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) v Northwestern Wildcats (6-6): The Wildcats enter a hostile environment, as the Aggies are clearly the favorites. The Wildcats can shine in bowl games, and their defense might give the Aggies fits, but the Wildcats have faded in the fourth quarter this season, which should allow the Aggies the chance to come back and win. TEXAS A&M
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v UCLA Bruins (6-7): I don't like the idea of a team with a losing record playing in a bowl game, so I'd want the Bruins to lose no matter who they play. They face my Illini, so I further want them to lose. Clearly Illinois has the better talent, but their predictable offensive scheme allowed teams to know what they were going to do. That's how they could start 6-0 and lose their next six games. UCLA played well in the Pac-12, but stunk out of conference. That cost Rick Neuheisel his job. Ron Zook is also out. Both teams are led by interim coaches, as their replacements are coaching in other bowl games. I like the fact that Illinois did NOT choose offensive coordinator Paul Petrino to coach this game, choosing instead defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. The defense was the strong part of Illinois' team this season, and Koenning can now veto the predictability of Petrino's game plan. That should give the edge to Illinois. ILLINOIS
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) v Auburn Tigers (7-5): Before my analysis, let me reveal two pertinent facts: I do not like the Auburn Tigers, and I've been in Virginia's corner all season. Auburn's reputation has been built on defense, but their defense is down a bit this year. Auburn is cocky enough to believe that, because they play in the SEC, teams from other conferences are beneath them. As I've already stated, the SEC was NOT the top conference this season; that honor goes to the Big XII. Yes, two SEC teams may be playing for the BCS title, but overall the Big XII had more Top 25 teams, and had better overall records. My God, only ONE team in the Big XII had a losing record! Virginia will not be overwlemed by playing an SEC team. Without the advantage of such nervousness, Auburn doesn't have even to get them past Virginia. VIRGINIA
This year the bowl committees arranged some interesting matchups. I am shocked by a few things, however. I do not understand why TCU and Boise State, two Top Ten teams who have proven success in prestiguous bowls, were consigned to such minor bowls against weak opponents. It's almost like these former BCS busters were being punished. The Poinsettia Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl will be horribly one-sided affairs. So will the Hawaii Bowl, which pairs Conference USA winner Southern Miss against Nevada.
One team is only playing a bowl game due to a technicality. UCLA hs become only the second team in NCAA history with a losing record playing in a bowl game. At 6-7, they should not be playing in a bowl, despite being bowl eligible. They played in the Pac-12 Championshp simply because USC was on probation. They lost that game, despite playing above themselves. There is no reason they should be playing in a bowl, other than a shortage of bowl eligible teams from the major conferences (that is why the SEC does NOT have the most bowl teams, a record they've had for the past three years). The only advantage to this situation is that Illinois has a bowl opponent they might actually beat.
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Temple Owls (8-4) v Wyoming Cowboys (8-4): The first bowl will likely be one of the closest. These two teams are equally tough, with similar philosophies. Both teams prefer to run; Temple is simply better at it. Wyoming can put together a passing attack if necessary, while Temple is pretty much grounded. That ability may benefit Wyoming, as Temple has one of the stingiest ground defenses in the FBS. That defense gives Temple the advantage in the game. TEMPLE
IDAHO BOWL -- Ohio Bobcats (9-4) v Utah St Aggies (7-5): Ohio failed to win the MAC title, and as punishment they play one of the earliest bowls. They get Utah State, a tricky opponent who gave opponents problems throughout the season. While Utah State will have some good plays, I expect Ohio to dominate this game. OHIO
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt has a tricky bowl history. Sometimes they have done well (2-0), other times terribly (0-2). This year they have three teams in the bowls, tied for the most they've ever had. They went 2-1 that year. Can they repeat, or even improve, that success? The Ragin' Cajuns were the rage in conference games, racking up a 6-2 record and, at one time, competing for the conference title. They even flirted with a Top 25 ranking. However, the Cajuns were not great out of conference, and their history of close games makes one question what would happen if they had to come from behind. I have to favor the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE
ST PETERSBURG BOWL -- Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) v Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6): We follow a Sun Belt loss with a Sun Belt win. The Golden Panthers have a strong defense and a well-balanced offense. Marshall is a streaky team that has no viable running game to fall back upon. Considering the strength of Florida International's defense, that lack of a running game will hurt Marshall. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
POINSETTIA BOWL -- #10 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4): Not much to say here. We've seen the power of TCU during the season, while Louisiana Tech did little outside of the WAC. TCU
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6) v #6 Boise State Broncos (11-1): The Sun Devils had talent, but they relied too much on a struggling quarterback. Boise State has too many weapons for the Sun Devils to stop, and Arizona State is not equipped to come back from a large deficit. BOISE STATE
HAWAII BOWL -- Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v #14 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-2): I don't know why the Conference USA winner ends up here, rather than a more prestiguous bowl. I will admit, spending time in Hawaii is attractive, but Southern Miss has already been criticized by costing their conference valuable BCS money by beating Houston. I suspect the bowl representatives had already made up their minds about the Golden Eagles before the Conference USA title game, as Houston still ended up with a New Year's Day game. As a reward for costing the conference that money, Southern Miss goes to Hawaii and scores an easy win. SOUTHERN MISS
INDEPENDENCE BOWL -- Missouri Tigers (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5): North Carolina has an unbeaten non-conference record, but they played fairly easy opponents. I'm more impressed with the highly-ranked running game of the Tigers. Missouri is considered one of the best running teams in the nation, and that can exhaust defenses. Missouri will not have the services of Coach Gary Pinkel, who was suspended after a DUI arrest. That might give North Carolina an advantage, but the Tigers are dedicating this game to their beloved coach. MISSOURI
LITTLE CAESARS DETROIT BOWL -- Western Michigan Broncos (7-6) v Purdue Boilermakers (6-6): In what is practically a home game for the Broncos, they face their fourth Big Ten team in 2011. They lost the previous three, so you'd think they'd be concerned. However, Purdue's stats are not good. Yes, they were able to win a couple of games they weren't expected to win, but overall Purdue was not a great team in the Big Ten. WESTERN MICHIGAN
BELK BOWL -- Louisville Cardinals (7-5) v NC State Wolfpack (7-5): Louisville came from nowhere to win a share of the Big East title. They are perfectly equipped for a bowl win. They struggled early, but came together to win five of their last six games. Those games pitted Louisville against their toughest opponents (except Cincy, who beat them right before that streak), and they stepped up. How did they succeed in those games? A strong defense. That's a great tool to have in a bowl game, especially against a team that wins as much on emotion as talent. If that defense shuts down the NC State offense, expect the Wolfpack to lose their heads, rack up penalties, and basically give the game to Louisville. LOUISVILLE
MILITARY BOWL -- Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (7-5): Let's face it, the Rockets are in a "no win" situation. This is the Military Bowl, so the service academy is the emotional favorite. Also, their coach already has his next job sealed - coaching my Alma Mater, the Illinois Fighting Illini. What could inspire the Rockets to win? I think the players want to send their coach out with a win, especially in recognition of what he's done for them. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year last year, Coach Beckman led them to an 8-4 record. They were supposed to improve this year, so some people consider their 8-4 record a disappointment. The players don't want this "disappointment" to extend to the bowl game. While I'm sure they will be booed every time they score, as the largely military audience will be rooting for Air Force, the Top Ten offense of Toledo will simply score too much for the more conservative Falcons to overcome. TOLEDO
HOLIDAY BOWL -- California Golden Bears (7-5) v Texas Longhorns (7-6): The Holiday Bowl typically features lots of scoring, and this year may be no exception. While their defense is solid, Texas and California both have tools to score, and score often. Texas prefers to run while Cal prefers to pass. Texas' Case McCoy has had a bit of an interception problem in later games, but Texas comes back well from those. Texas' record is influenced by huge losses to four Top 25 teams. I like Texas' chances to succeed here. TEXAS
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL -- Florida State Seminoles (8-4) v #19 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): This is a great matchup of two historic teams. Florida State has a great record in bowl games, but they struggle against strong programs. Penn State embarrased them two years ago, and now Notre Dame has the chance. Notre Dame lost only two games by more than three points, and both of those were to Top 25 Pac-12 teams (USC and Stanford). Both of those had powerful offenses, a feature lacking in the Seminoles. Florida State has won with defensive battles, but Notre Dame's defense isn't bad, either. NOTRE DAME
ALAMO BOWL -- Washington Huskies (7-5) v #25 Baylor Bears (9-3): With the Heisman Trophy in hand, Robert Griffin III gets a chance to win this game, and win it big. This will likely be his last college game, so you know he wants it to count. His passing accuracy and arm speed will play havok against one of the worst defenses in the country. This one will be decided early in the second quarter, as Baylor will open a four score lead before halftime. BAYLOR
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- BYU Cougars (9-3) v Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-4): Apparently the Military Bowl had to be created because the Armed Forces Bowl decided not to invite a service academy. By record, these teams seem closely matched. If you observe their respective opponents, though, you realize that BYU faced tougher opponents, and is a much tougher team. BYU
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-4) v Iowa State Cyclones (6-6): The tricky and unpredictable Iowa State Cyclones travel half the country to face Jersey-based Rutgers in favorable territory. Iowa State is known for their shocking wins over then-ranked Texas Tech and Top Five Oklahoma State. However, a more interesting fact is Rutgers and Iowa State's performances against a common opponent. Both teams faced UConn this season. Rutgers lost by twenty points, Iowa State won by four. The Cyclones didn't lose a single non-conference game. Iowa State's losses are all to Top 25 (or nearly so, in Missouri's case) teams, while Rutgers struggled against weaker teams. Upsets happen in bowl games, and I'm picking one here. IOWA STATE
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) v Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6): For this game, I am also influenced by strength of schedule. They play in the SEC, recently the toughest conference in the country (although not this year -- the Big XII was). They beat all of the non-conference opponents they faced. Their losses were all to ranked teams, except for a close contest against Auburn. Wake ended the season with a HUGE loss to SEC Vanderbilt. I have to favor the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
INSIGHT BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v #15 Oklahoma Sooners (9-3): The bowl representatives didn't tip the scales against the Big Ten as much as they typically do, but this matchup is definitely designed to embarrass the Big Ten. They pit the offensively-challenged Hawkeyes against one of the strongest offenses in the country. This one won't be pretty for Big Ten fans like myself. OKLAHOMA
TEXAS BOWL -- Texas A&M Aggies (6-6) v Northwestern Wildcats (6-6): The Wildcats enter a hostile environment, as the Aggies are clearly the favorites. The Wildcats can shine in bowl games, and their defense might give the Aggies fits, but the Wildcats have faded in the fourth quarter this season, which should allow the Aggies the chance to come back and win. TEXAS A&M
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v UCLA Bruins (6-7): I don't like the idea of a team with a losing record playing in a bowl game, so I'd want the Bruins to lose no matter who they play. They face my Illini, so I further want them to lose. Clearly Illinois has the better talent, but their predictable offensive scheme allowed teams to know what they were going to do. That's how they could start 6-0 and lose their next six games. UCLA played well in the Pac-12, but stunk out of conference. That cost Rick Neuheisel his job. Ron Zook is also out. Both teams are led by interim coaches, as their replacements are coaching in other bowl games. I like the fact that Illinois did NOT choose offensive coordinator Paul Petrino to coach this game, choosing instead defensive coordinator Vic Koenning. The defense was the strong part of Illinois' team this season, and Koenning can now veto the predictability of Petrino's game plan. That should give the edge to Illinois. ILLINOIS
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Virginia Cavaliers (8-4) v Auburn Tigers (7-5): Before my analysis, let me reveal two pertinent facts: I do not like the Auburn Tigers, and I've been in Virginia's corner all season. Auburn's reputation has been built on defense, but their defense is down a bit this year. Auburn is cocky enough to believe that, because they play in the SEC, teams from other conferences are beneath them. As I've already stated, the SEC was NOT the top conference this season; that honor goes to the Big XII. Yes, two SEC teams may be playing for the BCS title, but overall the Big XII had more Top 25 teams, and had better overall records. My God, only ONE team in the Big XII had a losing record! Virginia will not be overwlemed by playing an SEC team. Without the advantage of such nervousness, Auburn doesn't have even to get them past Virginia. VIRGINIA
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 14 picks
It's time to look at the playoff picture. I'll include that before this week's picks.
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (12-0) : At this point, does any team stand a chance to remove the Pack from the top spot? Even if the Pack doesn't go unbeaten, they've established too much of a lead over any other team.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-3) : Second best offense in the league is looking even scarier
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is decent. They've already won their division, and they're battling New Orleans for a bye week
4. Houston Texans (9-3) : Fortunately, they face easy teams while TJ Yates is under center. Their tough defense also helps
5. New England Patriots (9-3) : They could vault over Houston this week
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : Well-rounded team that is a threat on all sides of the ball, even special teams
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : Only Baltimore seems to be able to crack this steel-hard team
8. Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions are stumbling, and they don't have injuries as an excuse
9. Chicago Bears (7-5) : Chris Hanie is not looking good. Defense is tough, but the Bears need to move the ball
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : Rob Ryan's defense shows cracks, so they are thankful that Romo hasn't self-destructed, as he often does at this time of the season
Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With three Top Ten teams, they remain on top, but the skids by Chicago and Detroit makes this division vulnerable
2. AFC East : Without Buffalo, this division would have teams with all positive point differentials, and Buffalo's isn't too bad
3. AFC North : Cincy's recent problems has dropped the division
4. NFC South : Tampa is dragging them down, but the other teams have punch
5. NFC East : Most of these teams are close in stats, but unfortunately those stats don't look too good
6. AFC South : Houston's QB problems gives Tennessee an opening. Meanwhile, the division falls
7. NFC West : The 49ers are the only team of merit
8. AFC West : Denver's improving, and San Diego broke their losing streak. They might leap over their NFC rivals this week
Playoff races
AFC: The Patriots lead the East by two games, and they seem to have a solid grasp on that title. They are battling with Baltimore for top seed. Baltimore and Pitt are tied, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker. Houston leads Tennessee by two, but working with a third-string QB hurts the Texans. They are happy to have the toughest defense in the conference. Denver has taken the lead in the West, and they are certainly doing better than any other team in that division. Pitt clearly leads the wildcard race, with the Jets and Titans strong contenders. Cincy is slipping, as are their playoff chances
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran have clinched their division, and are playing for a bye week. The Pack clinches a bye with a win this week; home field throughout would take at least one more. The Saints lead the South by two games, and Atlanta is too inconsistent to catch them. Dallas leads by one in the East, and should maintain that lead if they avoid their traditional Dec slide. Atlanta and Detroit leads the wildcard race, as the Giants are too inconsistent and the Bears injuries have devastated their offense.
Thursday's game
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : This won't be pretty. The Steelers defense will pester McCoy and the Browns, while the Steelers offense will grind up yardage and clock time with Mendenhall running with the ball. STEELERS, 21-13
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8) : This game will be close (many of Carolina's games have been), but the poor Panthers defense will give the Matt Ryan and the Falcons a chance to boost their stats. FALCONS, 28-24
Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) : Andy Dalton and the Bengals are hoping that the QB woes of Houston gives them an opening, but the Bengals have struggled terribly against stiff defenses this year, and defenses don't get stiffer than the Texans'. If Yates doesn't throw turnovers (and he's been good at avoiding that), the Texans should win this by sheer power. TEXANS, 20-16
Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : I know the chance for 0-16 frustrates Peyton Manning, but I hope he remains on the sidelines to completely heal. Certainly this game will be a bust, with the Colts inconsistent offense (which has been looking better recently) and the Ravens tough defense. RAVENS, 24-16
Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5) : The Chiefs may think they stand a chance, since Tyler Palko scored his first touchdown last week. Granted, the Jets defense isn't as good as the Bears, but the offense, even with a sputtering Mark Sanchez, is better than the Bears' without Cutler and Forte. New York City analysts are predicting a shut-out -- the Jets' D isn't that good. The Chiefs will score, but not enough. JETS, 27-13
Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions see an opening with the Bears struggling. They can pull a game ahead of their division rival and help their wildcard status. Their defense will allow the Vikings a peek at victory, until a fourth quarter touchdown puts them fourteen ahead. The Vikes will engineer one more scoring drive, but fail to convert the onside kick. LIONS, 30-23
New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8) : The Redskins have shown flashes of brilliance, but with Grossman under center, they are too inconsistent to count on. PATS, 27-17
New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5) : The Titans defense isn't good enough to slow the Saints and the offense can't keep pace. The Titans may score a late touchdown, making the game LOOK closer than it was, but this one will never be in doubt. SAINTS, 28-23
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) : Matt Moore is looking pretty good, and has the Dolphins offense moving. The Eagles are in free fall. DOLPHINS, 27-20
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) : Blaine Gabbert has good streaks and bad ones. Josh Freeman is a bit more consistent, but not much. What has hurt the Bucs is the collapse of their defense, which gives the edge to Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew. JAGS, 24-20
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) : The draught is over for the Chargers, while the Bills continue to fall. I have to like San Diego's chances to make it two in a row. CHARGERS, 28-23
Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5) : The Broncos are winning with Tim Tebow, while the Bears offense is hurt. If Forte had not been injured last week, I'd easily pick the Bears, as the Broncos run defense has been terrible this season. I can certainly count on the Bears defense to make things difficult for the Broncos offense, but Tebow is sneaky enough to score a bit. The Bears defense will score on a turnover, and I think Devin Hester is due for another great return, but the Bears' offense will not do much on their own. BRONCOS, 23-17
Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0) : The Raiders can be tricky, but Green Bay can be a tough place to play. While the weather seems favorable, the Pack offense is just too much to stop. PACK, 31-20
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7) : The Cards offense can be unpredictable, on one week and off the next. Against the stiff 49ers defense, it'll be off. 49ERS, 26-16
Sunday night
New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : The Cowboys can take a two-game lead in the division, and severly damage the Giants' playoff chances, with a win here. The Giants put up lots of points against the Packers last week, but Rob Ryan will have a defensive scheme to frustrate the streaky Eli Manning. If you can throw him off early, his timing will be off all game. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- St Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7) : The Seahawks' offense is struggling, but the Rams offense is absolutely abyssmal. The Seahawks defense is better, and that will be the difference in this game. SEAHAWKS, 26-17
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (12-0) : At this point, does any team stand a chance to remove the Pack from the top spot? Even if the Pack doesn't go unbeaten, they've established too much of a lead over any other team.
2. New Orleans Saints (9-3) : Second best offense in the league is looking even scarier
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2) : Best defense in the league, and the offense is decent. They've already won their division, and they're battling New Orleans for a bye week
4. Houston Texans (9-3) : Fortunately, they face easy teams while TJ Yates is under center. Their tough defense also helps
5. New England Patriots (9-3) : They could vault over Houston this week
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : Well-rounded team that is a threat on all sides of the ball, even special teams
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : Only Baltimore seems to be able to crack this steel-hard team
8. Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions are stumbling, and they don't have injuries as an excuse
9. Chicago Bears (7-5) : Chris Hanie is not looking good. Defense is tough, but the Bears need to move the ball
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : Rob Ryan's defense shows cracks, so they are thankful that Romo hasn't self-destructed, as he often does at this time of the season
Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With three Top Ten teams, they remain on top, but the skids by Chicago and Detroit makes this division vulnerable
2. AFC East : Without Buffalo, this division would have teams with all positive point differentials, and Buffalo's isn't too bad
3. AFC North : Cincy's recent problems has dropped the division
4. NFC South : Tampa is dragging them down, but the other teams have punch
5. NFC East : Most of these teams are close in stats, but unfortunately those stats don't look too good
6. AFC South : Houston's QB problems gives Tennessee an opening. Meanwhile, the division falls
7. NFC West : The 49ers are the only team of merit
8. AFC West : Denver's improving, and San Diego broke their losing streak. They might leap over their NFC rivals this week
Playoff races
AFC: The Patriots lead the East by two games, and they seem to have a solid grasp on that title. They are battling with Baltimore for top seed. Baltimore and Pitt are tied, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker. Houston leads Tennessee by two, but working with a third-string QB hurts the Texans. They are happy to have the toughest defense in the conference. Denver has taken the lead in the West, and they are certainly doing better than any other team in that division. Pitt clearly leads the wildcard race, with the Jets and Titans strong contenders. Cincy is slipping, as are their playoff chances
NFC: Green Bay and San Fran have clinched their division, and are playing for a bye week. The Pack clinches a bye with a win this week; home field throughout would take at least one more. The Saints lead the South by two games, and Atlanta is too inconsistent to catch them. Dallas leads by one in the East, and should maintain that lead if they avoid their traditional Dec slide. Atlanta and Detroit leads the wildcard race, as the Giants are too inconsistent and the Bears injuries have devastated their offense.
Thursday's game
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) : This won't be pretty. The Steelers defense will pester McCoy and the Browns, while the Steelers offense will grind up yardage and clock time with Mendenhall running with the ball. STEELERS, 21-13
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-8) : This game will be close (many of Carolina's games have been), but the poor Panthers defense will give the Matt Ryan and the Falcons a chance to boost their stats. FALCONS, 28-24
Houston Texans (9-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) : Andy Dalton and the Bengals are hoping that the QB woes of Houston gives them an opening, but the Bengals have struggled terribly against stiff defenses this year, and defenses don't get stiffer than the Texans'. If Yates doesn't throw turnovers (and he's been good at avoiding that), the Texans should win this by sheer power. TEXANS, 20-16
Indianapolis Colts (0-12) at Baltimore Ravens (9-3) : I know the chance for 0-16 frustrates Peyton Manning, but I hope he remains on the sidelines to completely heal. Certainly this game will be a bust, with the Colts inconsistent offense (which has been looking better recently) and the Ravens tough defense. RAVENS, 24-16
Kansas City Chiefs (5-7) at New York Jets (7-5) : The Chiefs may think they stand a chance, since Tyler Palko scored his first touchdown last week. Granted, the Jets defense isn't as good as the Bears, but the offense, even with a sputtering Mark Sanchez, is better than the Bears' without Cutler and Forte. New York City analysts are predicting a shut-out -- the Jets' D isn't that good. The Chiefs will score, but not enough. JETS, 27-13
Minnesota Vikings (2-10) at Detroit Lions (7-5) : The Lions see an opening with the Bears struggling. They can pull a game ahead of their division rival and help their wildcard status. Their defense will allow the Vikings a peek at victory, until a fourth quarter touchdown puts them fourteen ahead. The Vikes will engineer one more scoring drive, but fail to convert the onside kick. LIONS, 30-23
New England Patriots (9-3) at Washington Redskins (4-8) : The Redskins have shown flashes of brilliance, but with Grossman under center, they are too inconsistent to count on. PATS, 27-17
New Orleans Saints (9-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-5) : The Titans defense isn't good enough to slow the Saints and the offense can't keep pace. The Titans may score a late touchdown, making the game LOOK closer than it was, but this one will never be in doubt. SAINTS, 28-23
Philadelphia Eagles (4-8) at Miami Dolphins (4-8) : Matt Moore is looking pretty good, and has the Dolphins offense moving. The Eagles are in free fall. DOLPHINS, 27-20
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) : Blaine Gabbert has good streaks and bad ones. Josh Freeman is a bit more consistent, but not much. What has hurt the Bucs is the collapse of their defense, which gives the edge to Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew. JAGS, 24-20
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) : The draught is over for the Chargers, while the Bills continue to fall. I have to like San Diego's chances to make it two in a row. CHARGERS, 28-23
Chicago Bears (7-5) at Denver Broncos (7-5) : The Broncos are winning with Tim Tebow, while the Bears offense is hurt. If Forte had not been injured last week, I'd easily pick the Bears, as the Broncos run defense has been terrible this season. I can certainly count on the Bears defense to make things difficult for the Broncos offense, but Tebow is sneaky enough to score a bit. The Bears defense will score on a turnover, and I think Devin Hester is due for another great return, but the Bears' offense will not do much on their own. BRONCOS, 23-17
Oakland Raiders (7-5) at Green Bay Packers (12-0) : The Raiders can be tricky, but Green Bay can be a tough place to play. While the weather seems favorable, the Pack offense is just too much to stop. PACK, 31-20
San Francisco 49ers (10-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-7) : The Cards offense can be unpredictable, on one week and off the next. Against the stiff 49ers defense, it'll be off. 49ERS, 26-16
Sunday night
New York Giants (6-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-5) : The Cowboys can take a two-game lead in the division, and severly damage the Giants' playoff chances, with a win here. The Giants put up lots of points against the Packers last week, but Rob Ryan will have a defensive scheme to frustrate the streaky Eli Manning. If you can throw him off early, his timing will be off all game. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- St Louis Rams (2-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-7) : The Seahawks' offense is struggling, but the Rams offense is absolutely abyssmal. The Seahawks defense is better, and that will be the difference in this game. SEAHAWKS, 26-17
Sunday, December 4, 2011
NCAA 2011 PreBowl Top 25
Few surprises this week - just the margin of victory of Oklahoma State (obviously trying to impress BCS voters) and the results of the ACC and Conference USA Championships. Each of these affected the Top 25.
Current Top 25 [Last position]
1. LSU Tigers (13-0) [1] : Their slaughter of Georgia clearly makes them the top team in the SEC
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [2] : Oklahoma State may have destroyed their rival, but Alabama still had more impressive wins this season. Their only loss was on overtime game against the top team in the country.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) [5] : Impressive win against Oklahoma and a loss by Houston moves the Cowboys back to Number Three.
4. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) [3]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) [6] : They beat Michigan State in a hard-fought Big Ten Championship
6. Boise State Broncos (11-1) [7] : Finished the season with a massive shut-out
7. Oregon Ducks (11-2) [9] : They had trouble against UCLA. Their offense should be afraid of Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl
8. Houston Cougars (12-1) [4] : They were slaughtered in the Conference USA Championship. They would have dropped from the Top Ten if not for losses by other teams.
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [10]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) [14]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) [11] : They lost the Big Ten Championship, but they played well and led for much of the game. No penalty, and they should gain a strong bowl bid.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) [13]
13. USC Trojans (10-2) [15]
14. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2) [18] : Their conquest of Houston puts them in BCS at-large territory
15. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) [8] : All I can say is, that's a lousy way to conclude the season. They'd better get a good bowl opponent, because they need a win to wash away the stink of that performance.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [16]
17. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [23] : Their commanding victory over Virginia Tech propels them high in the rankings
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) [12]
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) [19]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) [20] : They had trouble against Iowa State
21. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) [21]
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) [24] : If I had a BCS vote, I'd give Cincy the Big East title. Unfortunately, most of the unimaginative BCS voters judge a team on their history, not the current year's performance, and history is on the side of West Virginia.
23. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) [17] : Bad loss in the SEC Championship. They led after one quarter, but couldn't score after that
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) [NR] : The MAC winner reaches the Top 25
25. Baylor Bears (9-3) [NR]
Dropped: Ohio Bobcats [#22], Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets [#25]
Just missed:
- West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) : The likely winner of the Big East didn't quite have enough power to replace Cincy in the rankings
- BYU Cougars (9-3) : Their impressive win against Hawaii was not typical for them this year.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) : Had some trouble against the Big Ten defenses
- Temple Owls (8-4) : Lower record and MUCH weaker strength of schedule
Current Top 25 [Last position]
1. LSU Tigers (13-0) [1] : Their slaughter of Georgia clearly makes them the top team in the SEC
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [2] : Oklahoma State may have destroyed their rival, but Alabama still had more impressive wins this season. Their only loss was on overtime game against the top team in the country.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1) [5] : Impressive win against Oklahoma and a loss by Houston moves the Cowboys back to Number Three.
4. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) [3]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) [6] : They beat Michigan State in a hard-fought Big Ten Championship
6. Boise State Broncos (11-1) [7] : Finished the season with a massive shut-out
7. Oregon Ducks (11-2) [9] : They had trouble against UCLA. Their offense should be afraid of Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl
8. Houston Cougars (12-1) [4] : They were slaughtered in the Conference USA Championship. They would have dropped from the Top Ten if not for losses by other teams.
9. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [10]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) [14]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-3) [11] : They lost the Big Ten Championship, but they played well and led for much of the game. No penalty, and they should gain a strong bowl bid.
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) [13]
13. USC Trojans (10-2) [15]
14. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2) [18] : Their conquest of Houston puts them in BCS at-large territory
15. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3) [8] : All I can say is, that's a lousy way to conclude the season. They'd better get a good bowl opponent, because they need a win to wash away the stink of that performance.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [16]
17. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [23] : Their commanding victory over Virginia Tech propels them high in the rankings
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2) [12]
19. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4) [19]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) [20] : They had trouble against Iowa State
21. Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2) [21]
22. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) [24] : If I had a BCS vote, I'd give Cincy the Big East title. Unfortunately, most of the unimaginative BCS voters judge a team on their history, not the current year's performance, and history is on the side of West Virginia.
23. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) [17] : Bad loss in the SEC Championship. They led after one quarter, but couldn't score after that
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-3) [NR] : The MAC winner reaches the Top 25
25. Baylor Bears (9-3) [NR]
Dropped: Ohio Bobcats [#22], Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets [#25]
Just missed:
- West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) : The likely winner of the Big East didn't quite have enough power to replace Cincy in the rankings
- BYU Cougars (9-3) : Their impressive win against Hawaii was not typical for them this year.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) : Had some trouble against the Big Ten defenses
- Temple Owls (8-4) : Lower record and MUCH weaker strength of schedule
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