I finish the previews with the division housing the current Super Bowl winner, and the division that almost won it two years ago. Will Pittsburgh compete for a consecutive Super Bowl? Will the Patriots take back the division title from the Dolphins? Let's see...
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5; playoffs) - Tom Brady is back, which is good news to the team, but not necessarily good news to anyone else. It might even be a concern for the team, because whoever wins the backup position has had little to no experience in a regular season NFL game. Of course, they had that same concern with Matt Cassell, and he did well. Likely backup Kevin O'Connell had completed a total of 4 out of 8 passes in NFL games. O'Connell came from San Diego State, whose offensive style was not the same as either New England or USC, Cassell's alma mater. At least they still have a good slate of talented receivers, and plenty of runners to spell a fill-in quarterback.
All of this talk is moot, of course, if Brady goes the distance. He says he's 100%, but that's what they all. He has seemed fine in action so far, but it's a long season. Actually, injuries might be a greater concern on the defensive side of things, where experience is thin along the bench. If the Pats stay healthy, they'll be a terror.
Buffalo Bills (8-8) - Terrell Owens' presence allows them to run more three wide sets, but let's not give too many options to Trent Edwards. He sometimes takes a bit too long to release the ball, and that can cause problems in this league. He doesn't exactly have the strongest line to hold back tough defenses, either. Owens may like being "top dog" here, where the quarterback won't overshadow him, but this is also the team he's played for where the quarterback doesn't DESERVE top billing. Let's see how he handles THAT.
Defensively the Bills have some punch, but their secondary still has holes. With pass-happy opponents like New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Tennessee on their schedule, that's a definite weakness.
Miami Dolphins (7-9) - This team is becoming a Big Ten alumni club, as ex-Buckeye Brian Hartline joins former teammate Ted Ginn, Jr, and first round pick Vontae Davis joins the defensive secondary. These in addition to the other Big Ten alumni on this team. This is young team, but they remain a team eager to prove themselves. Yes, they won the division last year, but with Tom Brady out with injury, there's always that seemingly present asterisk. They want an outright victory this year. They have a tough schedule, though, so that'll be a challenge. They open with three tough opponents before having to host TO and the Bills. This secondary is good, but can these youngsters outsmart and outpace TO? Outsmart, possibly, but outpace?
Tampa Bay and Houston are about the only two "cushy" teams on their schedule. It'll be a tough year for these youngsters. If they even make the playoffs, they will have proven themselves.
New York Jets (6-10) - Mark Sanchez is currently slated to start the season, giving some poor performances by Kellen Clemens. I'm not sure that's the smartest thing. Okay, Matt Cassell proved that playing in USC is almost the same as playing with an NFL team, so he has some idea of what he's up against, but Sanchez doesn't have the same receiving tools he had in Los Angeles. The Jets are set up to be runners this season, especially with the defense new coach Rex Ryan has installed. It'll be slow going for the Jets, and Sanchez is used to posting points at will. Will he have the patience for the "three yards and a cloud of dust" mentality that MUST run this team if they are to be successful?
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3; 1st round playoff bye) - Ben's back, but how's his health? That's one concern coming into this season. The other is the replacement of some key defections. The once-overstocked corps of wide receivers has dwindled, leaving only three with more than two years of experience. They get some help from great tight ends, but it's not what it used to be. The running back corps looks good, and with their line, they can still bruise teams up the middle.
Interestingly, the defense doesn't seem to have the punch it once did. Traditionally a strong point in Pittsburgh, this defense doesn't yet seem to have the tenacity of teams of yore. I think Mike Tomlin will get them in line by the start of the season, but it's a strange situation in Pittsburgh, one they're not used to handling.
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-5; playoffs) - Joe Flacco is back to improve on his excellent start last season. With the addition of exceptional Ray Rice in the back field, the offense is forcing teams to sit up and take notice. Coming from a team that won their only Super Bowl on defense, that is quite the accomplishment.
Mind you, we can't take anything away from this defense. This is still a powerful team. Age is starting to show in places, but they have a decent bench. I mean, on what other team would Samari Rolle be a second teamer?
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) - QB Carson Palmer will be throwing a lot, but I don't know if he can trust his backfield. Starter Cedric Benson had more carries last year than in any year of his pro career, but didn't improve much on his per-carry yardage. He had fewer touchdowns than any year as a starter, which doesn't help his worth. Worse, Benson was Cincy's best runner last season. Oh well, how's the passing game? They don't have a dependable tight end, which puts the spotlight squarely on Ochocinco, Laveraneus Coles, and Chad Henry. Good bunch, but both Coles and Henry have had tough injuries in their career. That makes them more fragile, and they'll be targets.
The defense looks decent, and should help keep games close enough for Palmer and company to pull them out. This group isn't big on causing turnovers, but they are a tenacious bunch that makes opponents fight for every yard. Wearing down opposing offensives is their intention, giving the Bengals an interesting chance to grab victory in the fourth quarter.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12) - The suspension of Donte Stallworth has caused a jumble in the receiving corps. We may see rookie Brian Robiskie play fourth wideout occassionally. Of course, the Browns don't tend to play a four-wide set unless they are significantly behind that it has become a "pass at all costs" game. You know, we MIGHT see Robiskie quite a bit this season. That's because the Browns defense still lacks depth, and injuries are likely when you play in the same division as the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals. This team will find themselves behind opponents often, especially later in the season.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Saturday, August 22, 2009
NFL Preview #3 - AFC South and West
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5; playoffs) - Once the cabal of talented receivers, the Colts have raped that roster. I don't think they even have a dependable four-wide system. Their top three are good, though, and seem capable of lasting the entire sixteen-week season. It does shrink the offensive playbook a bit, though. But with Peyton Manning at quarterback, you can be sure that he'll do everything he can to move the ball. The defense still has some holes, but overall the team seems healthy and strong. [tiebreak due to record against conference opponents]
2. Tennessee Titans (11-5; playoffs) - This team might have the best offense in the division, surpassing Indianapolis. They still have Vince Young on the depth chart, but with Patrick Ramsey there, they have a capable backup to Kerry Collins. They have a tough defense, too. When this division was created, it was "Indy and the others". That is definitely no longer true.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - The defense is good, but the offense lacks talented depth in key places. Their strength remains their running game, supported by a strong line. Both lines (offensive and defensive) are strong. The team will be competitive, but won't quite make the playoffs.
4. Houston Texans (4-12) - Former Bear Rex Grossman is on the roster, but he's the third string QB, which tells you how good he really is. Matt Schaub showed he could lead this team, and he has decent players around him. Decent, but not great. This team doesn't have the same caliber as the rest of the division, especially on defense. The Texans will again fail to achieve a winning season.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (11-5; playoffs) - The banner headline on this team remains the same: Strong and fast offense, decent defense with some question marks. This team remains competitive, but has a glass ceiling that they can't shatter. This team will be "good enough", but won't reach Championship caliber without some defensive playmakers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11) - Matt Cassel proved strong in New England last year, but he was in a great system surrounded by high-powered talent. Unfortunately he doesn't have quite the same level of talent, and this team's system is being altered by the new coaching staff. A team in transition is not a good fit for Cassel. He hasn't had that since high school. The defense is strong enough to keep the team in the game, and they may start showing sparks towards the second half of the season, but it'll be a long season for the Chiefs.
3. Denver Broncos (5-11) - With Kyle Orton's preseason difficulties, Chris Simms may get the starting job. Whoever gets it, it'll be a tough season. The QB is buffered by the traditional Broncos stable of runners. Knowshown Moreno has been added to a talented pool, making this a strong ground team. They have a good defense, which will keep the team in games and give the offense a fighting chance, but this is not a playoff-caliber team yet.
4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) - This is JaMarcus Russell's last chance to shine for the Raiders. His preseason has been rocky, so Jeff Garcia might step in to start. If Garcia goes down, though, Russell must be ready to step in, and step up. The team won't make it easy, with holes in various places on the defense and a thin bench on offense, this team will struggle to get out of the cellar of the division.
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5; playoffs) - Once the cabal of talented receivers, the Colts have raped that roster. I don't think they even have a dependable four-wide system. Their top three are good, though, and seem capable of lasting the entire sixteen-week season. It does shrink the offensive playbook a bit, though. But with Peyton Manning at quarterback, you can be sure that he'll do everything he can to move the ball. The defense still has some holes, but overall the team seems healthy and strong. [tiebreak due to record against conference opponents]
2. Tennessee Titans (11-5; playoffs) - This team might have the best offense in the division, surpassing Indianapolis. They still have Vince Young on the depth chart, but with Patrick Ramsey there, they have a capable backup to Kerry Collins. They have a tough defense, too. When this division was created, it was "Indy and the others". That is definitely no longer true.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) - The defense is good, but the offense lacks talented depth in key places. Their strength remains their running game, supported by a strong line. Both lines (offensive and defensive) are strong. The team will be competitive, but won't quite make the playoffs.
4. Houston Texans (4-12) - Former Bear Rex Grossman is on the roster, but he's the third string QB, which tells you how good he really is. Matt Schaub showed he could lead this team, and he has decent players around him. Decent, but not great. This team doesn't have the same caliber as the rest of the division, especially on defense. The Texans will again fail to achieve a winning season.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (11-5; playoffs) - The banner headline on this team remains the same: Strong and fast offense, decent defense with some question marks. This team remains competitive, but has a glass ceiling that they can't shatter. This team will be "good enough", but won't reach Championship caliber without some defensive playmakers.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11) - Matt Cassel proved strong in New England last year, but he was in a great system surrounded by high-powered talent. Unfortunately he doesn't have quite the same level of talent, and this team's system is being altered by the new coaching staff. A team in transition is not a good fit for Cassel. He hasn't had that since high school. The defense is strong enough to keep the team in the game, and they may start showing sparks towards the second half of the season, but it'll be a long season for the Chiefs.
3. Denver Broncos (5-11) - With Kyle Orton's preseason difficulties, Chris Simms may get the starting job. Whoever gets it, it'll be a tough season. The QB is buffered by the traditional Broncos stable of runners. Knowshown Moreno has been added to a talented pool, making this a strong ground team. They have a good defense, which will keep the team in games and give the offense a fighting chance, but this is not a playoff-caliber team yet.
4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) - This is JaMarcus Russell's last chance to shine for the Raiders. His preseason has been rocky, so Jeff Garcia might step in to start. If Garcia goes down, though, Russell must be ready to step in, and step up. The team won't make it easy, with holes in various places on the defense and a thin bench on offense, this team will struggle to get out of the cellar of the division.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
NCAA Preview #3 - Go West, Young Men
Pacific-10
1. Oregon Ducks (8-1/11-1) - The Ducks only return ten starters from last year, but they are one of the best stocked teams in the conference. They also have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in Jeremiah Masoli. Although not a starter last season, he filled in for eight games. He filled in admirably, and the team is looking forward to him taking over the reins full-time.
2. USC Trojans (7-2/9-3) - The perennial conference champ has to replace their quarterback and most of the defense. For the rest of the conference, that's good news. The Trojans have such a depth of talent that the defense will be fine before the season ends, but some teams see opportunity in the Trojans' off-season losses.
3. California Golden Bears (5-4/8-4) - The Bears are primed with a strong offense and strong defense. Their Achilles Heel is quarterback Kevin Riley. His play was inconsistent last season, so much so that Coach Jeff Tedford left him out of their Emerald Bowl appearance. Riley is likely to start this season, but if he cannot improve his play, Cal won't be able to take advantage of USC's tumble this season.
4. Oregon State Beavers (5-4/8-4) - The Beavers get a nice early schedule for once, which should give time for a new secondary to start to gel. They'd better, because playing all conference opponents this year means the Beavers have some powerful passing teams coming to town, including USC and Oregon.
5. Stanford Cardinal (5-4/8-4) - The Cardinal running game is strong, which should give new QB Andrew Luck time to grow into the job. The defense is not outstanding, but they are tenacious, observant, and adaptive. This team has the potential to outperform any team in the second half, making them contenders in any game they play.
6. UCLA Bruins (4-5/6-6) - The Bruins may have the best defense in the conference. Unfortunately, their offense may be among one of the worst. That means the offense will sputter for two years in a row, a fate rarely seen in LA. Patience will be wearing thin with Coach Rick Neuheisel after this season.
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5/6-6) - The Sun Devils have an easy early schedule, helping the development of new QB Danny Sullivan. They don't much of a running game to spell him, so Sullivan will have to gain the experience to lead the offense in their difficult final stretch.
8. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/5-7) - The Wildcats are in for a rebuilding year, losing their quarterback, best receiver, half of the offensive line, and the defensive secondary. The defensive line is strong, so teams will have a hard time running against them, but not a lot of Pac-10 teams deal with the run. However, with so many new quarterbacks in the conference this year, a strong run defense could come in handy.
9. Washington Huskies (1-8/2-10) - Returning 16 starters from last year gives experience to the 0-12 team. Fortunately, they can only improve. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they'll improve by much.
10. Washington State Cougars (0-9/1-11) - It's unknown whether the Cougars have significantly improved a defense that lost five games last year by 49 or more points. That doesn't bode well if they want to crawl out of the conference cellar.
Mountain West
1. BYU Cougars (7-1/10-2) - Plenty of starters return from last season's 10-3 team. The Cougars further benefit from hosting both TCU and Utah, the main challengers for the conference title. BYU has a chance to recapture the title, and perhaps even play in a BCS bowl.
2. Air Force Falcons (6-2/10-2) - The Falcons return most of the crew that surprisingly went 8-4 last season. They could make a real impact this year, and perhaps even challenge for the conference title.
3. Utah Utes (5-3/8-4) - The Utes finished with their best ranking ever last season - #2. They want to improve on that. Replacing their quarterback and kicker makes that unlikely. Road contests against TCU and BYU won't help, either.
4. UNLV Rebels (5-3/7-5) - With 15 returning starters who beat ranked Arizona in overtime, and a favorable schedule, has created an air of expectation and enthusiasm around Las Vegas. They may be justified in that feeling. This team has always been capable of surprising opponents in the past, and with the confidence generated last season, this team could be a competitor.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-4/6-6) - Losing half of their starting defense won't help the Horned Frogs' cause, neither will a tough road schedule. Their offense looks good, but they may have trouble stopping opponents, especially early in the season.
6. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5/6-6) - For the Aztecs to be successful, they need to improve their running game and their running defense. They've talked big about those, with new offensive schemes and new coordinators, but we haven't seen any proof. Until I do, the Aztecs will contine to be an "also ran" team.
7. Colorado State Rams (3-5/5-7) - The Rams made great strides last year, but they'll slip backwards. They have to replace their quarterback, their main running back, and half of the receiving corps. Worse, their entire defensive line will be new, and their best linebacker is sitting out for disciplinary reasons. That does not bode well.
8. Wyoming Cowboys (2-6/3-9) - They return eight starters from a defense that ranked 38th last season, so the Cowboys will be a tough opponent. Their offense needs to be revamped, though, so they may not be able to score much themselves.
9. New Mexico Lobos (1-7/2-10) - New coach Mike Locksley is shifting to a spread offense, but he doesn't have the right tools to do that. The defense has some strength, but not enough to stop the best offenses in this conference.
Western Athletic Conference
1. Boise State Broncos (6-2/9-4) - The Broncos return 14 starters from last year's 12-1 team, but are lacking experience among the receivers and runners. Those are important positions for the Broncos' spread offense. They are good at developing talent, so their offense should run smoothly in the second half of the season, but this year's success may depend upon how well they get through their early games. They are tested in their first game, as the Oregon Ducks come to town.
2. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2/8-4) - The Wolf Pack's powerful offense returns, and they've beefed up their defense. They still have holes, especially in the secondary, but Nevada might be a contender this season. They have a favorable schedule, hosting most of their tough opponents, so the Pack will push for a possible title.
3. Hawaii Warriors (5-3/8-5) - After a year's experience, the Warriors' young offense should be better. However, they lose nearly their entire defense from last season. This team may be able to score more efficiently than last season, but preventing others from scoring will be tougher.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-3/7-5) - The Bulldogs have a strong running game and rushing defense, but they are susceptible to the pass. That hurts, although not as much as it would in conferences like the SEC or Mountain West. The running game is supported by a returning offensive front that is one of the conference's largest. The Bulldogs won't light up the scoreboard, but they will compete.
5. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3/6-6) - The runners and receivers are back, but a new quarterback will lead them. The Bulldogs' system isn't that complex, though, so that might not be a problem. A bigger problem is the rebuilding of both lines. There's enough part-time experience there, though, that they should develop quickly -- quickly enough to make an impact in conference play.
6. San Jose State Spartans (4-4/5-7) - Returning nearly all of last season's squads, the Spartans are confident they can compete. This is definitely an interesting season this year, as the conference finds itself top-heavy and bottom-heavy, with practically nothing in between. Unfortunately, San Jose State isn't quite ready to dethrone the top teams, but they'll come close.
7. New Mexico State Aggies (2-6/4-9) - New coach DeWayne Walker brings an emphasis on defense to the Aggies, but they don't have the players for it. Former coach Hal Mumme focussed exclusively on offense; signing capable defenders wasn't a consideration. It'll take at least a couple of recruiting classes for Walker's philosophy to take hold.
8. Idaho Vandals (1-6/2-10) - The Vandals have a tough schedule this season. Coach Robb Akey has been working with his players for two years, establishing a consistent program that was lacking since Tom Cable in 2003. They'd like it to pay dividends this year, but their schedule will make that difficult.
9. Utah State Aggies (1-7/2-10) - New coach Gary Andersen could have some surprises under his sleeve, as he showed running Utah's defense against Alabama in their Sugar Bowl victory, but even he is concerned about the strength of his team. He's not sure how they'll stack up against the stronger teams in the conference, so finese plays may become popular this season.
1. Oregon Ducks (8-1/11-1) - The Ducks only return ten starters from last year, but they are one of the best stocked teams in the conference. They also have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in Jeremiah Masoli. Although not a starter last season, he filled in for eight games. He filled in admirably, and the team is looking forward to him taking over the reins full-time.
2. USC Trojans (7-2/9-3) - The perennial conference champ has to replace their quarterback and most of the defense. For the rest of the conference, that's good news. The Trojans have such a depth of talent that the defense will be fine before the season ends, but some teams see opportunity in the Trojans' off-season losses.
3. California Golden Bears (5-4/8-4) - The Bears are primed with a strong offense and strong defense. Their Achilles Heel is quarterback Kevin Riley. His play was inconsistent last season, so much so that Coach Jeff Tedford left him out of their Emerald Bowl appearance. Riley is likely to start this season, but if he cannot improve his play, Cal won't be able to take advantage of USC's tumble this season.
4. Oregon State Beavers (5-4/8-4) - The Beavers get a nice early schedule for once, which should give time for a new secondary to start to gel. They'd better, because playing all conference opponents this year means the Beavers have some powerful passing teams coming to town, including USC and Oregon.
5. Stanford Cardinal (5-4/8-4) - The Cardinal running game is strong, which should give new QB Andrew Luck time to grow into the job. The defense is not outstanding, but they are tenacious, observant, and adaptive. This team has the potential to outperform any team in the second half, making them contenders in any game they play.
6. UCLA Bruins (4-5/6-6) - The Bruins may have the best defense in the conference. Unfortunately, their offense may be among one of the worst. That means the offense will sputter for two years in a row, a fate rarely seen in LA. Patience will be wearing thin with Coach Rick Neuheisel after this season.
7. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5/6-6) - The Sun Devils have an easy early schedule, helping the development of new QB Danny Sullivan. They don't much of a running game to spell him, so Sullivan will have to gain the experience to lead the offense in their difficult final stretch.
8. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/5-7) - The Wildcats are in for a rebuilding year, losing their quarterback, best receiver, half of the offensive line, and the defensive secondary. The defensive line is strong, so teams will have a hard time running against them, but not a lot of Pac-10 teams deal with the run. However, with so many new quarterbacks in the conference this year, a strong run defense could come in handy.
9. Washington Huskies (1-8/2-10) - Returning 16 starters from last year gives experience to the 0-12 team. Fortunately, they can only improve. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they'll improve by much.
10. Washington State Cougars (0-9/1-11) - It's unknown whether the Cougars have significantly improved a defense that lost five games last year by 49 or more points. That doesn't bode well if they want to crawl out of the conference cellar.
Mountain West
1. BYU Cougars (7-1/10-2) - Plenty of starters return from last season's 10-3 team. The Cougars further benefit from hosting both TCU and Utah, the main challengers for the conference title. BYU has a chance to recapture the title, and perhaps even play in a BCS bowl.
2. Air Force Falcons (6-2/10-2) - The Falcons return most of the crew that surprisingly went 8-4 last season. They could make a real impact this year, and perhaps even challenge for the conference title.
3. Utah Utes (5-3/8-4) - The Utes finished with their best ranking ever last season - #2. They want to improve on that. Replacing their quarterback and kicker makes that unlikely. Road contests against TCU and BYU won't help, either.
4. UNLV Rebels (5-3/7-5) - With 15 returning starters who beat ranked Arizona in overtime, and a favorable schedule, has created an air of expectation and enthusiasm around Las Vegas. They may be justified in that feeling. This team has always been capable of surprising opponents in the past, and with the confidence generated last season, this team could be a competitor.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-4/6-6) - Losing half of their starting defense won't help the Horned Frogs' cause, neither will a tough road schedule. Their offense looks good, but they may have trouble stopping opponents, especially early in the season.
6. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5/6-6) - For the Aztecs to be successful, they need to improve their running game and their running defense. They've talked big about those, with new offensive schemes and new coordinators, but we haven't seen any proof. Until I do, the Aztecs will contine to be an "also ran" team.
7. Colorado State Rams (3-5/5-7) - The Rams made great strides last year, but they'll slip backwards. They have to replace their quarterback, their main running back, and half of the receiving corps. Worse, their entire defensive line will be new, and their best linebacker is sitting out for disciplinary reasons. That does not bode well.
8. Wyoming Cowboys (2-6/3-9) - They return eight starters from a defense that ranked 38th last season, so the Cowboys will be a tough opponent. Their offense needs to be revamped, though, so they may not be able to score much themselves.
9. New Mexico Lobos (1-7/2-10) - New coach Mike Locksley is shifting to a spread offense, but he doesn't have the right tools to do that. The defense has some strength, but not enough to stop the best offenses in this conference.
Western Athletic Conference
1. Boise State Broncos (6-2/9-4) - The Broncos return 14 starters from last year's 12-1 team, but are lacking experience among the receivers and runners. Those are important positions for the Broncos' spread offense. They are good at developing talent, so their offense should run smoothly in the second half of the season, but this year's success may depend upon how well they get through their early games. They are tested in their first game, as the Oregon Ducks come to town.
2. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2/8-4) - The Wolf Pack's powerful offense returns, and they've beefed up their defense. They still have holes, especially in the secondary, but Nevada might be a contender this season. They have a favorable schedule, hosting most of their tough opponents, so the Pack will push for a possible title.
3. Hawaii Warriors (5-3/8-5) - After a year's experience, the Warriors' young offense should be better. However, they lose nearly their entire defense from last season. This team may be able to score more efficiently than last season, but preventing others from scoring will be tougher.
4. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-3/7-5) - The Bulldogs have a strong running game and rushing defense, but they are susceptible to the pass. That hurts, although not as much as it would in conferences like the SEC or Mountain West. The running game is supported by a returning offensive front that is one of the conference's largest. The Bulldogs won't light up the scoreboard, but they will compete.
5. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3/6-6) - The runners and receivers are back, but a new quarterback will lead them. The Bulldogs' system isn't that complex, though, so that might not be a problem. A bigger problem is the rebuilding of both lines. There's enough part-time experience there, though, that they should develop quickly -- quickly enough to make an impact in conference play.
6. San Jose State Spartans (4-4/5-7) - Returning nearly all of last season's squads, the Spartans are confident they can compete. This is definitely an interesting season this year, as the conference finds itself top-heavy and bottom-heavy, with practically nothing in between. Unfortunately, San Jose State isn't quite ready to dethrone the top teams, but they'll come close.
7. New Mexico State Aggies (2-6/4-9) - New coach DeWayne Walker brings an emphasis on defense to the Aggies, but they don't have the players for it. Former coach Hal Mumme focussed exclusively on offense; signing capable defenders wasn't a consideration. It'll take at least a couple of recruiting classes for Walker's philosophy to take hold.
8. Idaho Vandals (1-6/2-10) - The Vandals have a tough schedule this season. Coach Robb Akey has been working with his players for two years, establishing a consistent program that was lacking since Tom Cable in 2003. They'd like it to pay dividends this year, but their schedule will make that difficult.
9. Utah State Aggies (1-7/2-10) - New coach Gary Andersen could have some surprises under his sleeve, as he showed running Utah's defense against Alabama in their Sugar Bowl victory, but even he is concerned about the strength of his team. He's not sure how they'll stack up against the stronger teams in the conference, so finese plays may become popular this season.
NFL Preview #2 - NFC South and NFC West
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5; playoffs) - If Reggie Bush will step it up to his true potential, this offense has all of the tools to be massively powerful, now that Jeremy Shockey has added a true tight end to this squad. Off-season acquisitions have improved the defense, so this team will be a true force this year.
2. Atlanta Falcons (10-6; playoffs) - Matt Ryan was the rookie QB of the year last season. If that proves not to have been a fluke because teams underestimated him, Ryan can take this team back to the playoffs again. The offense is perfectly poised, with Michael Turner leading the running game and experienced tight end Tony Gonzalez providing experience to the receiving corps. The defense may need a little work, but this team has all the elements to make another run at the playoffs.
3. Carolina Panthers (6-10) - This team continues to have one of the more potent offenses in the conference. Injuries have been the bane of this team in the past, and their bench still remains thin. Their best defenders are aging, too, so how resiliant will they be? This team may not be able to sustain success across 16 weeks.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - Picking Luke McCown as starter over Byron Leftwich? Okay, Leftwich has lost some of his arm strength since his injury a couple of years ago, but McCown? He was a flop in Chicago, which had a high tolerance for mediocre quarterbacks. Without a capable QB, this team will be running a lot. They have a strong stable of runners, but teams cannot win with a running game alone; defenses will key off that.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4; playoff bye) - Can the defenders of the National Conference do it again, or will they suffer the curse of the Super Bowl losers. In the past two decades, the loser of the Super Bowl has rarely returned to the playoffs the following year. I think that depends upon the health of Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart still does not seem consistent enough to lead this team, so Warner must remain healthy for a healthy chunk of the season (pun intended). If he does, this offense will run smoothly and efficiently. The defense has a few question marks, but not many. The defense backups aren't stable, so this squad needs to remain healthy, too.
2. Seattle Seahawks (9-7; playoffs) - The offensive line is weak, but the rest of the offense is strong. The starting defense is good, but the backups are weak, so injuries could fracture this team.
3. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - The Greatest Show on Turf is no more. This group is young and less experienced, although QB Bulger still gets the job done. The defense is stronger than it has often been, but still has holes. It may be a while before this team sees the postseason.
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12) - The 49ers augmented their offense a bit during the off-season (although whether they will have Michael Crabtree remains a mystery), except where it really counts -- quarterback. They are going back to failed starter Alex Smith, and don't have a trusted backup, either. Their defense has some stars but lack depth, so this team will again struggle.
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5; playoffs) - If Reggie Bush will step it up to his true potential, this offense has all of the tools to be massively powerful, now that Jeremy Shockey has added a true tight end to this squad. Off-season acquisitions have improved the defense, so this team will be a true force this year.
2. Atlanta Falcons (10-6; playoffs) - Matt Ryan was the rookie QB of the year last season. If that proves not to have been a fluke because teams underestimated him, Ryan can take this team back to the playoffs again. The offense is perfectly poised, with Michael Turner leading the running game and experienced tight end Tony Gonzalez providing experience to the receiving corps. The defense may need a little work, but this team has all the elements to make another run at the playoffs.
3. Carolina Panthers (6-10) - This team continues to have one of the more potent offenses in the conference. Injuries have been the bane of this team in the past, and their bench still remains thin. Their best defenders are aging, too, so how resiliant will they be? This team may not be able to sustain success across 16 weeks.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - Picking Luke McCown as starter over Byron Leftwich? Okay, Leftwich has lost some of his arm strength since his injury a couple of years ago, but McCown? He was a flop in Chicago, which had a high tolerance for mediocre quarterbacks. Without a capable QB, this team will be running a lot. They have a strong stable of runners, but teams cannot win with a running game alone; defenses will key off that.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (12-4; playoff bye) - Can the defenders of the National Conference do it again, or will they suffer the curse of the Super Bowl losers. In the past two decades, the loser of the Super Bowl has rarely returned to the playoffs the following year. I think that depends upon the health of Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart still does not seem consistent enough to lead this team, so Warner must remain healthy for a healthy chunk of the season (pun intended). If he does, this offense will run smoothly and efficiently. The defense has a few question marks, but not many. The defense backups aren't stable, so this squad needs to remain healthy, too.
2. Seattle Seahawks (9-7; playoffs) - The offensive line is weak, but the rest of the offense is strong. The starting defense is good, but the backups are weak, so injuries could fracture this team.
3. St. Louis Rams (6-10) - The Greatest Show on Turf is no more. This group is young and less experienced, although QB Bulger still gets the job done. The defense is stronger than it has often been, but still has holes. It may be a while before this team sees the postseason.
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12) - The 49ers augmented their offense a bit during the off-season (although whether they will have Michael Crabtree remains a mystery), except where it really counts -- quarterback. They are going back to failed starter Alex Smith, and don't have a trusted backup, either. Their defense has some stars but lack depth, so this team will again struggle.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
NFL preview #1 - NFC East and NFC North
It's time for me to take crystal ball in hand and look at the chances of the 32 teams in the National Football League. With the Lombardi Trophy held in the AFC North, that conference and division will be done last, so I'll start with the NFC counterpart, plus my home division.
NFC East
1. New York Giants (13-3, playoff bye) - QB Eli Manning became the highest-paid player in the league, which might put pressure on him. The calm Manning probably won't be too affected, though. The Giants don't seem to need Plaxico Burress too soon, as David Tyree, Steve Smith, and Sinorice Moss provide great speed and hands. Throw in new TE Travis Beckum, and you have a successful pass offense. The running game looks good, too.
Defense is one place you can always count on the Giants' succeeding, and this year doesn't seem any different. Their depth is limited, so injuries could hurt them here, but I figure they have enough strength to capture another NFC East title.
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) - The loss of Terrell Owens might actually improve their offense. Now they can use their entire roster of talented receivers (including tight ends) instead of focussing on "Mr. Whiner". An improved offense will help, but their bigger concern was their 20th ranked defense. Unfortunately they didn't seem to do so well in improving that, which leaves Dallas trailing.
3. ashington Redskins (7-9) - The team drafted several players from nearby Maryland. I assume that was an attempt to increase ticket sales, as I don't know how much many of them will help the team. One of the more exciting acquisitions was Missouri QB Chase Daniel, though. Everyone is hoping to see him, but I think Coach Jim Zorn is smarter than that. As a former NFL quarterback, he knows that they play better with some time to adjust from college. Jason Campbell and Todd Collins will likely spend preseason competing for Number One.
They have good receivers, but their bench is inexperienced. If they suffer injuries, they could find themselves in trouble. At least they have some runners available to help carry the team (pun intended), with Clinton Portis, Dominique Dorsey, and Ladell Betts. The offensive line has been rebuilt, so we won't really know until preseason is over whether this group will propel them.
The Redskins did some work to improve their defense this off-season. They have an interesting mix of aging veterans and young guns. Injuries might shake up this squad, but teams may be surprised.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) - Donovan McNabb may be showing his age. Kevin Kolb is currently rated ahead of AJ Feeley for backup duties, but the rest of preseason may change that. Brian Westbrook is already hurt, so LeSean McCoy takes center stage. Their top two tight ends aren't very experienced, either, so the offense faces some potential problems. The defense appears to have some holes, too, so this team may suffer this year.
NFC North
1. Chicago Bears (10-6, playoffs) - Jay Cutler seems determined to prove my earlier blog wrong. He is working closely with his receivers, especially tight end Greg Olson, and leading team discussions. If he can maintain that relationship, this offense might become potent. The defense remains strong, despite some defections, as new team members are matching the intensity of veterans.
I don't usually watch preseason games, as it's more talk and strategy than action, but I'll be looking forward to Cutler returning to Denver on August 30th. That should be intense! I defy Lovie Smith to get Cutler out of that game before he scores at least three touchdowns against his former team. That might be the best therapy for Cutler, too. If he exacts such revenge against the team and coach that he feels wronged him, he might work even harder to establish a connection with his new team.
2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) - The team is shy on great receivers, and are relying on either Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball. Clearly this team is placing the success of their offense squarely on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson. So far he's been able to carry the load, but if the Walter Payton-led years of the Chicago Bears taught us, a team cannot rely on a running back alone. A strong defense helps, but with the Hendersons facing a possible four-game suspension and a weak bench to cover injuries, the defense may not help enough.
3. Green Bay Packers (6-10) - Aaron Rodgers started last season strongly, but then sputtered. So did Favre for the Jets, so the Pack didn't miss him. Besides, much of the Pack's problems cannot be blamed on Rodgers. Once again, injuries slimmed the on-field talent.
They've got a full roster now, but it needs to be trimmed during preseason. Already, though, I have concerns. They don't have a strong tight end on their roster right now. No matter who they keep does not have a stable history of going all 16 weeks, and doesn't seem to be a big playmaker. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are still their strongest wide receivers, but repeated injuries may have reduced their effectiveness. The Pack did pump up their defense, but its their offense has been wracked with injuries over the past few years.
The Pack has the talent to do well in this division, but given their injury woes I have to take away two or three victories I would expect them to have later in the season, just due to attrition.
4. Detroit Lions (3-13) - Well, they can only go up. They've brought in some new blood, but I hope they don't rely too much on their rookies, especially on the defensive line and at quarterback. As I've previously said, sit Matthew Stafford for at least half the season. As far as the line, they may need those rookies, which means that pass rushing is out, and teams can run against the Lions. Given the runners in this division (Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Ryan Grant), that's not a helpful situation.
NFC East
1. New York Giants (13-3, playoff bye) - QB Eli Manning became the highest-paid player in the league, which might put pressure on him. The calm Manning probably won't be too affected, though. The Giants don't seem to need Plaxico Burress too soon, as David Tyree, Steve Smith, and Sinorice Moss provide great speed and hands. Throw in new TE Travis Beckum, and you have a successful pass offense. The running game looks good, too.
Defense is one place you can always count on the Giants' succeeding, and this year doesn't seem any different. Their depth is limited, so injuries could hurt them here, but I figure they have enough strength to capture another NFC East title.
2. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) - The loss of Terrell Owens might actually improve their offense. Now they can use their entire roster of talented receivers (including tight ends) instead of focussing on "Mr. Whiner". An improved offense will help, but their bigger concern was their 20th ranked defense. Unfortunately they didn't seem to do so well in improving that, which leaves Dallas trailing.
3. ashington Redskins (7-9) - The team drafted several players from nearby Maryland. I assume that was an attempt to increase ticket sales, as I don't know how much many of them will help the team. One of the more exciting acquisitions was Missouri QB Chase Daniel, though. Everyone is hoping to see him, but I think Coach Jim Zorn is smarter than that. As a former NFL quarterback, he knows that they play better with some time to adjust from college. Jason Campbell and Todd Collins will likely spend preseason competing for Number One.
They have good receivers, but their bench is inexperienced. If they suffer injuries, they could find themselves in trouble. At least they have some runners available to help carry the team (pun intended), with Clinton Portis, Dominique Dorsey, and Ladell Betts. The offensive line has been rebuilt, so we won't really know until preseason is over whether this group will propel them.
The Redskins did some work to improve their defense this off-season. They have an interesting mix of aging veterans and young guns. Injuries might shake up this squad, but teams may be surprised.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) - Donovan McNabb may be showing his age. Kevin Kolb is currently rated ahead of AJ Feeley for backup duties, but the rest of preseason may change that. Brian Westbrook is already hurt, so LeSean McCoy takes center stage. Their top two tight ends aren't very experienced, either, so the offense faces some potential problems. The defense appears to have some holes, too, so this team may suffer this year.
NFC North
1. Chicago Bears (10-6, playoffs) - Jay Cutler seems determined to prove my earlier blog wrong. He is working closely with his receivers, especially tight end Greg Olson, and leading team discussions. If he can maintain that relationship, this offense might become potent. The defense remains strong, despite some defections, as new team members are matching the intensity of veterans.
I don't usually watch preseason games, as it's more talk and strategy than action, but I'll be looking forward to Cutler returning to Denver on August 30th. That should be intense! I defy Lovie Smith to get Cutler out of that game before he scores at least three touchdowns against his former team. That might be the best therapy for Cutler, too. If he exacts such revenge against the team and coach that he feels wronged him, he might work even harder to establish a connection with his new team.
2. Minnesota Vikings (8-8) - The team is shy on great receivers, and are relying on either Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson to throw the ball. Clearly this team is placing the success of their offense squarely on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson. So far he's been able to carry the load, but if the Walter Payton-led years of the Chicago Bears taught us, a team cannot rely on a running back alone. A strong defense helps, but with the Hendersons facing a possible four-game suspension and a weak bench to cover injuries, the defense may not help enough.
3. Green Bay Packers (6-10) - Aaron Rodgers started last season strongly, but then sputtered. So did Favre for the Jets, so the Pack didn't miss him. Besides, much of the Pack's problems cannot be blamed on Rodgers. Once again, injuries slimmed the on-field talent.
They've got a full roster now, but it needs to be trimmed during preseason. Already, though, I have concerns. They don't have a strong tight end on their roster right now. No matter who they keep does not have a stable history of going all 16 weeks, and doesn't seem to be a big playmaker. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are still their strongest wide receivers, but repeated injuries may have reduced their effectiveness. The Pack did pump up their defense, but its their offense has been wracked with injuries over the past few years.
The Pack has the talent to do well in this division, but given their injury woes I have to take away two or three victories I would expect them to have later in the season, just due to attrition.
4. Detroit Lions (3-13) - Well, they can only go up. They've brought in some new blood, but I hope they don't rely too much on their rookies, especially on the defensive line and at quarterback. As I've previously said, sit Matthew Stafford for at least half the season. As far as the line, they may need those rookies, which means that pass rushing is out, and teams can run against the Lions. Given the runners in this division (Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, and Ryan Grant), that's not a helpful situation.
Friday, August 7, 2009
NCAA Preview #2 - Un-Stuck in the Middle
Moving west, we hit the central part of our nation, home of some of the hardest-hitting teams in the country. Let's start with one conference with lots of Top 25 contenders:
Big XII North
1. Kansas Jayhawks (6-2/10-2) - Coach Mark Mangino has built an offensive powerhouse. Since most of them are seniors, this may be their last chance to capture the crown. To do that, they need to improve on defense. An off-season conditioning program shows promise, as they are coming back leaner and faster. The Jayhawks gave up too many long pass plays. A faster defense, and the departure of Michael Crabtree, should help.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/8-4) - Bo Pelini did a good job returning the Cornhuskers to their winning ways, but this team isn't thrilled yet. They had some big wins last season, but had some embarrassments, too. They return 13 starters from last year, but a big concern is the linebacking corps, which is 75% redshirt freshmen. This conference has some high-powered offenses, so a strong linebacking corps is crucial. They've got some easy games to start to the season, but the team cannot afford to get overconfident, as they start a tough string of games on October 17th (against Texas Tech).
3. Kansas State Wildcats (3-5/6-6) - Former coach Bill Snyder returns to restore this beleaguered team to prominence. He has some talented returning starters, but Snyder may not use some of them. He doesn't think much of the preceding system, and he's overhauling as much as he can. That might be too much for these guys to handle in one season.
4. Iowa State Cyclones (3-5/6-6) - Their offense showed some spark at the end of the season. Since they return nearly the entire squad, new coach Paul Rhoads hopes they can build on that momentum. The problem for Iowa State, though, as been the other side of the ball. They have had the worst defense in the conference for the past two years. While their returning starters have gained some experience, a new defensive scheme means a learning curve. The Cyclones chance to return to a bowl game after five years may depend upon how quickly they learn.
5. Colorado Buffaloes (3-5/5-7) - The Buffaloes lost nearly half their starters from a 5-7 team. That might be good, but eight of them were on defense. Whoops. The Buffaloes have a great schedule, playing their worst conference rivals at home, but they may not be able to make much with it.
6. Missouri Tigers (2-6/3-9) - This team has lost too much from the division winners from last year. Returning just a total of eight starters from last year, the Tigers will sputter. While their offense lost the marquee names, perhaps their defense will suffer the most. In this conference, and against opening opponent Illinois, that isn't good news.
Big XII South
1. Texas Longhorns (8-0/12-0) - The Longhorns offense may be the biggest threat in the division, with the loss of Michael Crabtree from Tech, but a defensive line with only one returning starter makes them vulnerable to the run. But, who's running in this division? Texas has the best runner of them all. Their schedule helps, as they host Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas and avoid Nebraska. They could go undefeated until their concluding battle against A&M.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1/11-1) - Every single player who could have left school early for the NFL draft remained -- EVERY one. This team is hungry for a National Championship. They certainly have the talent to do it, but they have one tough obstacle - Texas. The Longhorns retained many of their potential NFL draftees, too, and the Red River Showdown is in the Cotton Bowl this year. If they survive that, they still have to face Nebraska and Texas Tech on the road, too.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3/8-4) - The Cowboys have a great offense, although their receivers lack depth; only the top two are reliable. The problem lies in their defense. They hired a new defensive coordinator this year, but how quickly can he turn them around? Bill Young's been around the team for years, so he knows what he's working with. That'll help, but it might hurt as well -- he knows his guys a bit TOO well, and will think they can't do certain things.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5/6-6) - No Graham Harrell, no Michael Crabtree, no chance of a division title.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (3-5/6-6) - Coach Mike Sherman was not impressed with many of his players last year. He's threatening to fill this year's roster with 60% freshmen. I don't that'll work in this hard-biting conference.
6. Baylor Bears (3-5/5-7) - Returning twenty starters from last year's squad, which started showing some offensive quality, could help pull this long-lamenting team out of the cellar.
Champion: Texas over Kansas
Big Ten
1. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2/10-2) - The Lions are hoping to win a second consecutive conference title for the first time in team history, but it won't be easy. Oh, QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster are back, but the entire wide receiving corps is new. The defense is nasty and tenacious, though, and a nice schedule helps. However, they face a couple of good offenses early in conference play. If that defense slips, they won't be able to come back from behind.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2/9-3) - Many experts are concerned about Ohio State's defense, as they must rebuild their linebacking corps and line. However, OSU is very good at cultivating defensive players, so I'm not concerned there. Their offense, however, is a concern. QB Terrelle Pryor finds himself lacking experienced receivers and handing off to a new back. This may be a slow offense.
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3/8-4) - Both lines are being rebuilt from a squad that collapsed against Florida State. Four straight home games, then a game against pathetic Minnesota, will help this young squad build strength and character. Can they stretch that to a decent close? They're fortunate to not play Penn State, but a road game in Columbus might reverse their fortunes.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-4/7-5) - QB Juice Williams leads a strong offense that could improve on last year's 19th ranking. This team can score some points, but will they stop teams? Last year's defense was poor, and they lost their two best players on that squad. If Illinois hopes to compete, they need to step up their defense.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) - The Wildcats return eight defenders from a tough squad that unexpectedly won nine games last season. Unfortunately the offensive line is the only stable part of the offense, and their defense isn't quite the same caliber of Penn State or Ohio State. They don't have to play Ohio State, but road games at Illinois and Iowa don't help their cause.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-4/7-5) - This team struggled on the road last season, and they have a brutal road schedule this year. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi lost his favorite target, and the defense lost its heart, but this team is hoping to build on their four-game (five, counting their bowl game) winning streak that closed the season.
7. Michigan State Spartans (4-4/6-6) - A team historically known for offense, they'll be counting on their defense to propel them this year. The loss of QB Brian Hoyer and runner Javon Ringer makes this a rebuilding year on their offense. This is a conference where defense is more important, but is theirs good enough to compete with the likes of Ohio State and Penn State?
8. Michigan Wolverines (3-5/5-7) - Rich Rodriquez got himself a spread-type quarterback, and can rely heavily on Brandon Minor in the backfield. He still lacks the speed receivers that make the spread offense move fast, and new coordinator Greg Robinson is shaking up the defense. This may not be as bad a year as last season, but Michigan is still at least a year away from challenging the conference.
9. Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) - An off-season conditioning program will hopefully reduce the number of injuries that plagued this team last year. It's hard to gauge how a healthy Hoosier squad would do, as we haven't seen these guys together on the field in conference play.
10. Purdue Boilermakers (2-6/4-8) - Joe Tiller has retired, and the Boilermakers seem to have lost all life. They're hoping to avoid the injuries that damaged their season last year, but in this hard-hitting conference, I don't think they can count on that.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7/2-10) - The Golden Gophers return more starters than any other team, but since they lost their last five games, that may not be a good thing. Both coordinators are new, and that's never a good sign for a college team, where it takes players longer to learn new systems.
MAC East
1. Akron Zips (5-3/8-4) - The Zips return nearly the entire offense that averaged over 30 points a game last season. Their defense was poor, but they've simplified the system so make it easier. A year's experience will also improve the defense.
2. Buffalo Bulls (4-4/6-6) - The Bulls surprised everyone and won the conference, but can they defend their title? They lost four-year starter Drew Willy at QB, and 3/4 of the offensive front is new. The defense should be better, with a focus on pressuring the quarterback instead of stopping passes, but how crucial was their offense to their success last year?
3. Bowling Green Falcons (3-5/4-8) - The Falcons collapsed in the fourth quarter several times last season. They've pushed an off-season conditioning program, but the loss of eight defensive starters won't help their cause. Their offense should be strong, but their defensive problems will cause more fourth quarter losses this year, too.
4. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8) - They lose their QB yet retain their running corps and offensive front, so the Golden Flashes switch foci to a running game. Coach Doug Martin hopes that will be enough to win, as his job is on the line. The key will be the defense. A running-based offense cannot come back from large deficits, so they must stop opponents. They didn't do that well last year, and there doesn't seem to be much confidence that they can do it this year.
5. Temple Owls (2-6/3-9) - The Owls break in a new quarterback and shuffle some defensive positions, but they're hopeful that they'll have a decent season. They have a tough start to the season, though, facing difficult opponents until Army on October 17th. Some MAC analysts are predicting good things for Temple this season, so a poor start may deject the team.
6. Ohio Bobcats (2-6/3-9) - Returning 14 players from a poor squad doesn't necessarily sound good, but many of the Bobcats' woes last year was due to injuries. A year's experience and conditioning should make the Bobcats more competitive. Unfortunately they have a tough non-conference schedule, which might deflate their young players.
7. Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-7/1-11) - A young squad that struggled last year and a tough slate of road games makes this a poor year for the Redhawks and new coach Mike Haywood.
MAC West
1. Western Michigan Broncos (7-1/10-2) - The Broncos have high hopes to regain the Western division title. QB Tim Hiller returns for a fifth year, since injury cost him the 2006 season, and he has nearly his entire offense from last season. Hiller is only 25 TD passes away from setting the all-time conference record. He had 36 last season, so excitement is high. Their defense was the problem last season, but they showed improvement at the end of the year. If they can build on that, the Broncos will be a tremendous, and tremendously successful, force in the MAC.
2. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-2/7-5) - QB Dan LeFevour returned for his senior year, so the Chippewas spread offense should run smoothly. Unfortunately they're a one-sided offense, as the backfield is new. The defense is a total mystery. Last year's was totally inconsistent, and their replacements don't seem much better. The Chippewas could win the conference, or end up somewhere in the middle.
3. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/5-7) - New coach Ron English is highly touted for the aggresive defense he created when he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan, but I remember that that same defense gave up over 70 points to Appalachian State and Oregon. Both of those teams employed the spread offense, a popular scheme in the MAC, too. I don't think this team will be really strong, but a favorable schedule helps them.
4. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-5/5-7) - QB Chandler Harnish is showing improvement, and he has some experienced players to support him. Unfortunately, the defense lost some key members, and a tough schedule will make things harder for the Huskies.
5. Ball State Broncos (2-6/5-7) - The Broncos are breaking in a new coach and a new offense, including the entire front offensive line. It looks like it'll take until at least 2010 for Ball State to compete again in this conference.
6. Toledo Rockets (2-6/2-10) - New coach Tim Beckman has toughened the defense with off-season challenges, but the offense is a massive question mark. The Rockets have a tough schedule, too, so this won't be an easy year.
Champion: Western Michigan over Akron
Conference USA East
1. East Carolina Pirates (7-1/9-3) - This potent team returns 18 starters from last year's conference championship team. Skip Holtz has this team believing they can win, and they have the talent to do it.
2. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (6-2/7-5) - Offensively, the Golden Eagles are flying. Defensively, they need to replace their top two linebackers. If they do that quickly, they'll compete. If they start slowly, they may not catch East Carolina.
3. Memphis Tigers (3-5/5-7) - The QB and receivers seem stable, but a rebuild offensive line questions how much time the quarterback has to connect with his receivers. South Florida pointed out plenty of holes in the Tigers' defense, which they hope they've fixed. An easy opening schedule might give them too much confidence, as their second half is a killer.
4. Central Florida Knights (3-5/4-8) - Their offense gained experience last season, as their improvement in late October and November demonstrated. They can move the ball, but stopping opponents will depend upon how quickly the new secondary develops.
5. UAB Blazer (2-6/3-9) - They have the best returning quarterback of any team in the conference, and a strong front defensive line. However, that's about all they have. Success will depend upon the development of their receivers. Fortunately, they start with some weak opponents.
6. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-6/2-10) - The luckless Herd are hopeful this season, as they return key players in key positions. Receivers and linebackers are strong, but they have no prominent quarterback. Worse, they had way too many mental mistakes last year, and there's no indication that they are any more intense.
Conference USA West
1. Houston Cougars (7-1/9-3) - The Cougars have a high-powered offense, perhaps the best in the conference. Their defense lost seven starters from last year, though, so that offense will need every ounce of power to outscore opponents.
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/7-5) - A new quarterback and rebuilt front line creates some concerns on the offense, but the defense is tough. If the offense adjusts quickly, Tulsa can once again compete for the conference title.
3. Tulane Green Wave (4-4/6-6) - Their running game is secure, and the passing game shows promise. What Tulane needs is a defense to balance their offense. They had injury problems last year, and if the offense is on the field too much, the chances for injury increase.
UTEP Miners (4-4/5-7) - The Miners barely missed the postseason last season, but they have a very difficult schedule to overcome this time. They lost nearly half of last season's starters, which doesn't bode well.
SMU Mustangs (3-5/4-8) - Their young team has a year of experience under their belts. The Mustangs look to improve from last year, when they suffered a 1-11 season. They'll improve, but not enough to compete for the division -- yet.
Rice Owls (3-5/3-9) - Rice's defense looks good, but the offense will have to be created with mostly new pieces. I don't think Rice will repeat their success from last season.
Champion: East Carolina over Houston
Big XII North
1. Kansas Jayhawks (6-2/10-2) - Coach Mark Mangino has built an offensive powerhouse. Since most of them are seniors, this may be their last chance to capture the crown. To do that, they need to improve on defense. An off-season conditioning program shows promise, as they are coming back leaner and faster. The Jayhawks gave up too many long pass plays. A faster defense, and the departure of Michael Crabtree, should help.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/8-4) - Bo Pelini did a good job returning the Cornhuskers to their winning ways, but this team isn't thrilled yet. They had some big wins last season, but had some embarrassments, too. They return 13 starters from last year, but a big concern is the linebacking corps, which is 75% redshirt freshmen. This conference has some high-powered offenses, so a strong linebacking corps is crucial. They've got some easy games to start to the season, but the team cannot afford to get overconfident, as they start a tough string of games on October 17th (against Texas Tech).
3. Kansas State Wildcats (3-5/6-6) - Former coach Bill Snyder returns to restore this beleaguered team to prominence. He has some talented returning starters, but Snyder may not use some of them. He doesn't think much of the preceding system, and he's overhauling as much as he can. That might be too much for these guys to handle in one season.
4. Iowa State Cyclones (3-5/6-6) - Their offense showed some spark at the end of the season. Since they return nearly the entire squad, new coach Paul Rhoads hopes they can build on that momentum. The problem for Iowa State, though, as been the other side of the ball. They have had the worst defense in the conference for the past two years. While their returning starters have gained some experience, a new defensive scheme means a learning curve. The Cyclones chance to return to a bowl game after five years may depend upon how quickly they learn.
5. Colorado Buffaloes (3-5/5-7) - The Buffaloes lost nearly half their starters from a 5-7 team. That might be good, but eight of them were on defense. Whoops. The Buffaloes have a great schedule, playing their worst conference rivals at home, but they may not be able to make much with it.
6. Missouri Tigers (2-6/3-9) - This team has lost too much from the division winners from last year. Returning just a total of eight starters from last year, the Tigers will sputter. While their offense lost the marquee names, perhaps their defense will suffer the most. In this conference, and against opening opponent Illinois, that isn't good news.
Big XII South
1. Texas Longhorns (8-0/12-0) - The Longhorns offense may be the biggest threat in the division, with the loss of Michael Crabtree from Tech, but a defensive line with only one returning starter makes them vulnerable to the run. But, who's running in this division? Texas has the best runner of them all. Their schedule helps, as they host Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas and avoid Nebraska. They could go undefeated until their concluding battle against A&M.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1/11-1) - Every single player who could have left school early for the NFL draft remained -- EVERY one. This team is hungry for a National Championship. They certainly have the talent to do it, but they have one tough obstacle - Texas. The Longhorns retained many of their potential NFL draftees, too, and the Red River Showdown is in the Cotton Bowl this year. If they survive that, they still have to face Nebraska and Texas Tech on the road, too.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3/8-4) - The Cowboys have a great offense, although their receivers lack depth; only the top two are reliable. The problem lies in their defense. They hired a new defensive coordinator this year, but how quickly can he turn them around? Bill Young's been around the team for years, so he knows what he's working with. That'll help, but it might hurt as well -- he knows his guys a bit TOO well, and will think they can't do certain things.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5/6-6) - No Graham Harrell, no Michael Crabtree, no chance of a division title.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (3-5/6-6) - Coach Mike Sherman was not impressed with many of his players last year. He's threatening to fill this year's roster with 60% freshmen. I don't that'll work in this hard-biting conference.
6. Baylor Bears (3-5/5-7) - Returning twenty starters from last year's squad, which started showing some offensive quality, could help pull this long-lamenting team out of the cellar.
Champion: Texas over Kansas
Big Ten
1. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2/10-2) - The Lions are hoping to win a second consecutive conference title for the first time in team history, but it won't be easy. Oh, QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster are back, but the entire wide receiving corps is new. The defense is nasty and tenacious, though, and a nice schedule helps. However, they face a couple of good offenses early in conference play. If that defense slips, they won't be able to come back from behind.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-2/9-3) - Many experts are concerned about Ohio State's defense, as they must rebuild their linebacking corps and line. However, OSU is very good at cultivating defensive players, so I'm not concerned there. Their offense, however, is a concern. QB Terrelle Pryor finds himself lacking experienced receivers and handing off to a new back. This may be a slow offense.
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3/8-4) - Both lines are being rebuilt from a squad that collapsed against Florida State. Four straight home games, then a game against pathetic Minnesota, will help this young squad build strength and character. Can they stretch that to a decent close? They're fortunate to not play Penn State, but a road game in Columbus might reverse their fortunes.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-4/7-5) - QB Juice Williams leads a strong offense that could improve on last year's 19th ranking. This team can score some points, but will they stop teams? Last year's defense was poor, and they lost their two best players on that squad. If Illinois hopes to compete, they need to step up their defense.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) - The Wildcats return eight defenders from a tough squad that unexpectedly won nine games last season. Unfortunately the offensive line is the only stable part of the offense, and their defense isn't quite the same caliber of Penn State or Ohio State. They don't have to play Ohio State, but road games at Illinois and Iowa don't help their cause.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-4/7-5) - This team struggled on the road last season, and they have a brutal road schedule this year. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi lost his favorite target, and the defense lost its heart, but this team is hoping to build on their four-game (five, counting their bowl game) winning streak that closed the season.
7. Michigan State Spartans (4-4/6-6) - A team historically known for offense, they'll be counting on their defense to propel them this year. The loss of QB Brian Hoyer and runner Javon Ringer makes this a rebuilding year on their offense. This is a conference where defense is more important, but is theirs good enough to compete with the likes of Ohio State and Penn State?
8. Michigan Wolverines (3-5/5-7) - Rich Rodriquez got himself a spread-type quarterback, and can rely heavily on Brandon Minor in the backfield. He still lacks the speed receivers that make the spread offense move fast, and new coordinator Greg Robinson is shaking up the defense. This may not be as bad a year as last season, but Michigan is still at least a year away from challenging the conference.
9. Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) - An off-season conditioning program will hopefully reduce the number of injuries that plagued this team last year. It's hard to gauge how a healthy Hoosier squad would do, as we haven't seen these guys together on the field in conference play.
10. Purdue Boilermakers (2-6/4-8) - Joe Tiller has retired, and the Boilermakers seem to have lost all life. They're hoping to avoid the injuries that damaged their season last year, but in this hard-hitting conference, I don't think they can count on that.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7/2-10) - The Golden Gophers return more starters than any other team, but since they lost their last five games, that may not be a good thing. Both coordinators are new, and that's never a good sign for a college team, where it takes players longer to learn new systems.
MAC East
1. Akron Zips (5-3/8-4) - The Zips return nearly the entire offense that averaged over 30 points a game last season. Their defense was poor, but they've simplified the system so make it easier. A year's experience will also improve the defense.
2. Buffalo Bulls (4-4/6-6) - The Bulls surprised everyone and won the conference, but can they defend their title? They lost four-year starter Drew Willy at QB, and 3/4 of the offensive front is new. The defense should be better, with a focus on pressuring the quarterback instead of stopping passes, but how crucial was their offense to their success last year?
3. Bowling Green Falcons (3-5/4-8) - The Falcons collapsed in the fourth quarter several times last season. They've pushed an off-season conditioning program, but the loss of eight defensive starters won't help their cause. Their offense should be strong, but their defensive problems will cause more fourth quarter losses this year, too.
4. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8) - They lose their QB yet retain their running corps and offensive front, so the Golden Flashes switch foci to a running game. Coach Doug Martin hopes that will be enough to win, as his job is on the line. The key will be the defense. A running-based offense cannot come back from large deficits, so they must stop opponents. They didn't do that well last year, and there doesn't seem to be much confidence that they can do it this year.
5. Temple Owls (2-6/3-9) - The Owls break in a new quarterback and shuffle some defensive positions, but they're hopeful that they'll have a decent season. They have a tough start to the season, though, facing difficult opponents until Army on October 17th. Some MAC analysts are predicting good things for Temple this season, so a poor start may deject the team.
6. Ohio Bobcats (2-6/3-9) - Returning 14 players from a poor squad doesn't necessarily sound good, but many of the Bobcats' woes last year was due to injuries. A year's experience and conditioning should make the Bobcats more competitive. Unfortunately they have a tough non-conference schedule, which might deflate their young players.
7. Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-7/1-11) - A young squad that struggled last year and a tough slate of road games makes this a poor year for the Redhawks and new coach Mike Haywood.
MAC West
1. Western Michigan Broncos (7-1/10-2) - The Broncos have high hopes to regain the Western division title. QB Tim Hiller returns for a fifth year, since injury cost him the 2006 season, and he has nearly his entire offense from last season. Hiller is only 25 TD passes away from setting the all-time conference record. He had 36 last season, so excitement is high. Their defense was the problem last season, but they showed improvement at the end of the year. If they can build on that, the Broncos will be a tremendous, and tremendously successful, force in the MAC.
2. Central Michigan Chippewas (6-2/7-5) - QB Dan LeFevour returned for his senior year, so the Chippewas spread offense should run smoothly. Unfortunately they're a one-sided offense, as the backfield is new. The defense is a total mystery. Last year's was totally inconsistent, and their replacements don't seem much better. The Chippewas could win the conference, or end up somewhere in the middle.
3. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/5-7) - New coach Ron English is highly touted for the aggresive defense he created when he was the defensive coordinator at Michigan, but I remember that that same defense gave up over 70 points to Appalachian State and Oregon. Both of those teams employed the spread offense, a popular scheme in the MAC, too. I don't think this team will be really strong, but a favorable schedule helps them.
4. Northern Illinois Huskies (3-5/5-7) - QB Chandler Harnish is showing improvement, and he has some experienced players to support him. Unfortunately, the defense lost some key members, and a tough schedule will make things harder for the Huskies.
5. Ball State Broncos (2-6/5-7) - The Broncos are breaking in a new coach and a new offense, including the entire front offensive line. It looks like it'll take until at least 2010 for Ball State to compete again in this conference.
6. Toledo Rockets (2-6/2-10) - New coach Tim Beckman has toughened the defense with off-season challenges, but the offense is a massive question mark. The Rockets have a tough schedule, too, so this won't be an easy year.
Champion: Western Michigan over Akron
Conference USA East
1. East Carolina Pirates (7-1/9-3) - This potent team returns 18 starters from last year's conference championship team. Skip Holtz has this team believing they can win, and they have the talent to do it.
2. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (6-2/7-5) - Offensively, the Golden Eagles are flying. Defensively, they need to replace their top two linebackers. If they do that quickly, they'll compete. If they start slowly, they may not catch East Carolina.
3. Memphis Tigers (3-5/5-7) - The QB and receivers seem stable, but a rebuild offensive line questions how much time the quarterback has to connect with his receivers. South Florida pointed out plenty of holes in the Tigers' defense, which they hope they've fixed. An easy opening schedule might give them too much confidence, as their second half is a killer.
4. Central Florida Knights (3-5/4-8) - Their offense gained experience last season, as their improvement in late October and November demonstrated. They can move the ball, but stopping opponents will depend upon how quickly the new secondary develops.
5. UAB Blazer (2-6/3-9) - They have the best returning quarterback of any team in the conference, and a strong front defensive line. However, that's about all they have. Success will depend upon the development of their receivers. Fortunately, they start with some weak opponents.
6. Marshall Thundering Herd (2-6/2-10) - The luckless Herd are hopeful this season, as they return key players in key positions. Receivers and linebackers are strong, but they have no prominent quarterback. Worse, they had way too many mental mistakes last year, and there's no indication that they are any more intense.
Conference USA West
1. Houston Cougars (7-1/9-3) - The Cougars have a high-powered offense, perhaps the best in the conference. Their defense lost seven starters from last year, though, so that offense will need every ounce of power to outscore opponents.
2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/7-5) - A new quarterback and rebuilt front line creates some concerns on the offense, but the defense is tough. If the offense adjusts quickly, Tulsa can once again compete for the conference title.
3. Tulane Green Wave (4-4/6-6) - Their running game is secure, and the passing game shows promise. What Tulane needs is a defense to balance their offense. They had injury problems last year, and if the offense is on the field too much, the chances for injury increase.
UTEP Miners (4-4/5-7) - The Miners barely missed the postseason last season, but they have a very difficult schedule to overcome this time. They lost nearly half of last season's starters, which doesn't bode well.
SMU Mustangs (3-5/4-8) - Their young team has a year of experience under their belts. The Mustangs look to improve from last year, when they suffered a 1-11 season. They'll improve, but not enough to compete for the division -- yet.
Rice Owls (3-5/3-9) - Rice's defense looks good, but the offense will have to be created with mostly new pieces. I don't think Rice will repeat their success from last season.
Champion: East Carolina over Houston
Sunday, August 2, 2009
NCAA Preview #1 - Beasts of the East
As fans of my regular column know, I do a preseason prediction of each of the 11 conferences in the Bowl Championship Division. They also know that I do NOT do a preseason Top 25. Let's face it, those rankings are only a columnist's personal preferences - you cannot know how a team will do, due to the number of changes that occur between seasons. I don't start ranking teams until games are played, and then only judge them on their performance, not how they did against what was EXPECTED.
Anyway, on to the start of the predictions. Once again, I will do this geographically, starting with the home of the defending National Champions. That means...
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators (7-1/11-1 overall) : As much as I distain the arrogance of the Gators and head coach Urban Meyer, they do have the best chance to win this division again. They have a favorable schedule, playing Tennessee and Georgia at home. Tim Tebow is an excellent QB for Urban Meyer's system, and returning the entire starting defense from last season means they won't be coming from behind. In fact, their most difficult game is likely to be a defensive battle -- on October 1oth at LSU.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3/8-4) : There are several question marks on this squad, as Steve Spurrier looks to improve on a dedicated yet mistake-riddled team. Spurrier has such an excellent eye for talent that he'll find the right people for the right positions, and hopefully they'll have enough experience to reduce the number of penalties and mental mistakes that hurt the Gamecocks last year.
3. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3/8-4) : A favorable schedule and the return of 18 players from last year's tremendous squads gives high hopes to the Commodores. It's strange to think of Vandy as a threat in the SEC, but the number of struggling or rebuilding teams makes the Commodores a favorite to challenge for a good spot. There's still a gap between them and the Gators, but other squads have to see Vandy as a threat.
4. Tennessee Volunteers (4-4/6-6) : New coach Lane Kiffin has wasted no time in making enemies in the conference, and some of them take out frustrations on the field. He should find the Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina games warlike. Depending upon the number of injuries incurred in those games, the Vols could finish strongly or limp to the end of the season. I figure Kiffin will toughen his guys enough to survive, but they might end up 4-8 or 3-9 if they are less prepared.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-5/5-7) : The loss of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno leaves the Bulldogs starved offensively. Their defense isn't terrible, but it's not good enough to compare with Auburn's or LSU's, and the defense can't stop powerhouses like Florida or Tennessee. This is definitely a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/6-6) : Kentucky's defense helped them win the Liberty Bowl, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the high-powered offenses in the SEC. Their non-conference games were their saving grace last year, and they may again propel them to a bowl game. However, if Louisville beefed up their offense, they may lose that game, and end their successful postseason run.
SEC WEST
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1/10-2) : Alabama has a strong team. Their only Achilles Heel is a rebuilt offensive front line. The only games that will hinge on them are the first and last, against Virginia Tech and Auburn, respectively. Both attack the front line mercilessly, which makes the Tide vulnerable.
2. LSU Tigers (5-3/8-4) : A redisciplined defense and more stable quarterback will fix most of the problems from last year's underachieving team, but they still haven't fully restored themselves to the upper echelons of the conference. Fortunately, this is a down year for the SEC, so the Tigers will finish as one of the better teams.
3. Ole Miss Rebels (4-4/7-5) : The Rebels surprised teams last year, so their opponents will be better prepared. Still, the Rebels have one of the better offenses in the conference, and a returning defense strong enough to make things difficult for opponents. The Rebels will continue to be a strength in the SEC.
4. Auburn Tigers (3-5/5-7) : New coach Gene Chizik is attempting to rebuild the offense, but they still have a long way to go. Defense will once again carry the team, but it won't carry them far enough to return to the top of the division.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6/4-8) : With a weak quarterback, the Razorbacks will focus on the run. Fortunately, they have a large and talented stable of runners. Unfortunately, a run-oriented offense won't be enough to compete in this conference.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7/3-9) : New coach Dan Mullen likes the spread offense, but he's missing experience at key positions: quarterback and wide receiver. They're relying on two freshmen and a sophomore who's played less than 20 plays. The freshmen were top high school players in the state, so there are high hopes, but I'm figuring it'll take a season to break them in.
CHAMPION : Florida over Alabama
ACC Atlantic
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/7-5) : QB Ryan Skinner is leading the best offense in the division, but a questionable defense makes the Deacons vulnerable. The offense isn't deep in certain positions, so if the offense has to be on the field frequently, the Deacons may peter out late in games.
2. Boston College Eagles (4-4/7-5) : The Eagles have more troubles than a new coach. Last year's starting quarterback isn't recovering well from his injury, stable replacement Dominique Davis was suspended for academic reasons (and Davis has announced plans to transfer to another school), and they don't really have a strong candidate to replace Davis. Worse, the defense that took them to the ACC Championship Game will be without the services of ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich. The Eagles are helped with a favorable opening schedule, so they have some time to get things settled, but it looks to be a tough year for BC.
3. Clemson Tigers (4-4/6-6) : A returning offensive line and trio of talented QBs make the Tigers attractive. A strong returning defense makes them terrors to opponents. However, a lack of skilled receivers makes the Tigers offense move very slowly. That won't help against some of the defenses in this conference.
4. Maryland Terrapins (4-4/6-6) : The inconsistency at QB may not be such a big problem this year, as a lack of talented wide receivers will cause a shift to the running game. The defense looks better, so a running scheme might work for the Terrapins. They have a good schedule, too.
5. Florida State Seminoles (3-5/4-8) : The Seminoles finally have a stable and capable QB, but a weak receiving corps and lack of runners provides little support for their QB. They have some problems on the defensive side of the ball. Worst of all, the recent off-field problems and cheating scandal shows that Coach Bowden is loosing control. Since the Seminoles have a history of giving scholarships to students with athletic ability but little self-discipline, I think this team will collapse.
6. NC State Wolfpack (2-6/4-8) : Both the offense and defense have severe problems to fix. With a quarterback who missed half of spring practice to play baseball, this team lacks cohesion and experience. It'll be a long year for Coach O'Brien and the Wolfpack loyal.
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2) : They return nearly all of last year's starters, and that was a squad that won the Orange Bowl. Without a doubt, this team is one of the toughest in the conference. The only hitch? They play tough Georgia Tech in the enemy's home.
2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2/9-3) : They return nearly all of their offense from last year, making them a huge threat again. The defense has to replace most of the front four, but a strong spring practice gives confidence that they can.
3. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/7-5) : Their young team last year has more experience, which makes them more dangerous. Miami still doesn't have the plethora of talent that marks Hurricane squads of yore, but this group should be a force in the conference.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5/5-7) : The Heels should be able to dig them in, as they return a strong defense from last season. They are strong at quarterback, but lost all three of their top receivers from last year. With holes on their offensive line, a running game seems impractical, so the Heels may struggle early.
5. Virgina Cavaliers (2-6/3-9) : With spotty performance on both sides of the ball plaguing spring practice, Coach Al Groh feels there are plenty of concerns on the team. I agree.
6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/3-9) : The Blue Devils have improved their passing game, but they still have a long way to go to be competitive in this conference.
CHAMPION: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest
Big East
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2/8-4) : Spring practice showed that the Mountaineers have replaced departing offensive starters very well, but the defense still has a ways to go.
2. South Florida Bulls (5-2/8-4) : The Bulls have some holes on the offensive line, and their defense is down from previous years, but an overall weak conference this year makes them competitors. They may have the best quarterback in the conference, so watch out for the Bulls!
3. Louisville Cardinals (3-4/6-6) : Five different quarterbacks played in spring practice, and none stood out over the others. Coach Kragthorpe has stated he won't state a starter until a week before the opening game. Fortunately all quarterbacks seem capable with the system, and a group of talented receivers will help. The defense needs some work, but things look to be improving from last season's surprisingly pathetic squad.
4. Syracuse Orangemen (3-4/5-7) : A mistake-filled spring practice makes fans concerned, but new coach Doug Marrone liked what he saw. A team that folded in too many games last year, the Orangemen showed grit and determination. They possess a sheer tenacity that might propel them through some games against this thin conference, but Syracuse still has work to do before they can return to the top of the conference.
5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5/5-7) : The offensive line returns, but just who they will protect remains a mystery. Spring practice did little to demonstrate who will replace the Knights' departing offensive stars. The defense has holes, too, so Rutgers finds themselves in the midst of a rebuilding year.
6. UConn Huskies (2-5/5-7) : A revamped offense should make the Huskies more unpredictable than last season, but that unpredictability can also hurt the team. Defenses will have to watch for more diversity, but the Huskies lack sufficient offensive experience to effectively do everything well. They also need to replace some key holes on defense, so it won't be a great year in Storrs.
7. Pitt Panthers (2-5/4-8) : With a weak offense and no kicking game emerging from spring practice, this team will suffer. The defense has moments, but it's thin and may suffer from injuries.
8. Cincinnati Bearcats (1-6/2-10) : The defense lost so much talent from last season's Top 25 squad that Coach Brian Kelly moved some OFFENSIVE players to defense. We'll have to see if the gimmick works, but it does thin out the defense from a team that has had injury problems in the past. Things look grim.
Sun Belt
1. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-0/9-3) : A new nickname might mean new luck for Arkansas State, as they return most of last year's starters. They have the strongest offense in the conference, and their defense is good, too. Only Troy can really threaten them, and the Red Wolves face the Trojans at home.
2. Troy Trojans (7-1/8-4) : Their defense is the toughest in the conference, but a restructured offensive line will take a little time to adjust. Since they face Arkansas State early, I don't think that line will be ready for the Red Wolves.
Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/4-8) : Losing most of its starting defense leaves the Owls vulnerable, and a 35-point performance by the offense in the spring game demonstrates it. The offense is good, but it's a bit slow. Worse, their bench is small, so injuries could jeopardize the Owls' chances to regain the conference title.
Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/3-9) : The Panthers defense looked much improved in the spring game. That was good, as the defense was slow last year. Now the offense faces scrutiny, as they appeared confused and disoriented in the spring. They must tighten up if they want to compete in this conference. To make matters worse, they start the season with two tough road streaks. They could start the season 0-7.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (3-5/3-9) : The defense looked strong, but it appears Coach Rickey Bustle will have trouble replacing their departing offensive stars. When you look the top three scorers on the team, it is hard to regain quickly.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-5/4-8) : The team comes in with question marks at quarterback, holes on the offensive line, and a thin defense. To attempt to assist the defense, they are switching to a 3-3-5 to spread the defense and allow more blitzes. The defense is fast, so it might succeed early, but teams will determine schemes to beat it. This team will fade in the stretch.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : New QB Dwight Dasher lives up to his name, scrambling first and passing late. Coach Rick Stockstill wants to break him of that habit, but watching highlights of Florida QB Tim Tebow won't help. If Dasher will look for the pass, he has excellent tools to catch them. An iffy defense means this team must score, so fans are hoping Stockstill keeps Dasher off the ground.
North Texas Mean Green (2-6/2-10) : The worst defense in the conference over the past two seasons didn't improve much. With the coach's son starting at QB, the offense will go smootly, but just how much patience will Coach Dodge have if son Riley makes mistakes?
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-7/2-10) : The Hilltoppers have one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Unfortunately, after a 2-10 season last year, many of those freshmen will be pressed into service, and it might be too soon.
Anyway, on to the start of the predictions. Once again, I will do this geographically, starting with the home of the defending National Champions. That means...
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators (7-1/11-1 overall) : As much as I distain the arrogance of the Gators and head coach Urban Meyer, they do have the best chance to win this division again. They have a favorable schedule, playing Tennessee and Georgia at home. Tim Tebow is an excellent QB for Urban Meyer's system, and returning the entire starting defense from last season means they won't be coming from behind. In fact, their most difficult game is likely to be a defensive battle -- on October 1oth at LSU.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3/8-4) : There are several question marks on this squad, as Steve Spurrier looks to improve on a dedicated yet mistake-riddled team. Spurrier has such an excellent eye for talent that he'll find the right people for the right positions, and hopefully they'll have enough experience to reduce the number of penalties and mental mistakes that hurt the Gamecocks last year.
3. Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3/8-4) : A favorable schedule and the return of 18 players from last year's tremendous squads gives high hopes to the Commodores. It's strange to think of Vandy as a threat in the SEC, but the number of struggling or rebuilding teams makes the Commodores a favorite to challenge for a good spot. There's still a gap between them and the Gators, but other squads have to see Vandy as a threat.
4. Tennessee Volunteers (4-4/6-6) : New coach Lane Kiffin has wasted no time in making enemies in the conference, and some of them take out frustrations on the field. He should find the Auburn, Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina games warlike. Depending upon the number of injuries incurred in those games, the Vols could finish strongly or limp to the end of the season. I figure Kiffin will toughen his guys enough to survive, but they might end up 4-8 or 3-9 if they are less prepared.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-5/5-7) : The loss of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno leaves the Bulldogs starved offensively. Their defense isn't terrible, but it's not good enough to compare with Auburn's or LSU's, and the defense can't stop powerhouses like Florida or Tennessee. This is definitely a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/6-6) : Kentucky's defense helped them win the Liberty Bowl, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the high-powered offenses in the SEC. Their non-conference games were their saving grace last year, and they may again propel them to a bowl game. However, if Louisville beefed up their offense, they may lose that game, and end their successful postseason run.
SEC WEST
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1/10-2) : Alabama has a strong team. Their only Achilles Heel is a rebuilt offensive front line. The only games that will hinge on them are the first and last, against Virginia Tech and Auburn, respectively. Both attack the front line mercilessly, which makes the Tide vulnerable.
2. LSU Tigers (5-3/8-4) : A redisciplined defense and more stable quarterback will fix most of the problems from last year's underachieving team, but they still haven't fully restored themselves to the upper echelons of the conference. Fortunately, this is a down year for the SEC, so the Tigers will finish as one of the better teams.
3. Ole Miss Rebels (4-4/7-5) : The Rebels surprised teams last year, so their opponents will be better prepared. Still, the Rebels have one of the better offenses in the conference, and a returning defense strong enough to make things difficult for opponents. The Rebels will continue to be a strength in the SEC.
4. Auburn Tigers (3-5/5-7) : New coach Gene Chizik is attempting to rebuild the offense, but they still have a long way to go. Defense will once again carry the team, but it won't carry them far enough to return to the top of the division.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6/4-8) : With a weak quarterback, the Razorbacks will focus on the run. Fortunately, they have a large and talented stable of runners. Unfortunately, a run-oriented offense won't be enough to compete in this conference.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7/3-9) : New coach Dan Mullen likes the spread offense, but he's missing experience at key positions: quarterback and wide receiver. They're relying on two freshmen and a sophomore who's played less than 20 plays. The freshmen were top high school players in the state, so there are high hopes, but I'm figuring it'll take a season to break them in.
CHAMPION : Florida over Alabama
ACC Atlantic
1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/7-5) : QB Ryan Skinner is leading the best offense in the division, but a questionable defense makes the Deacons vulnerable. The offense isn't deep in certain positions, so if the offense has to be on the field frequently, the Deacons may peter out late in games.
2. Boston College Eagles (4-4/7-5) : The Eagles have more troubles than a new coach. Last year's starting quarterback isn't recovering well from his injury, stable replacement Dominique Davis was suspended for academic reasons (and Davis has announced plans to transfer to another school), and they don't really have a strong candidate to replace Davis. Worse, the defense that took them to the ACC Championship Game will be without the services of ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich. The Eagles are helped with a favorable opening schedule, so they have some time to get things settled, but it looks to be a tough year for BC.
3. Clemson Tigers (4-4/6-6) : A returning offensive line and trio of talented QBs make the Tigers attractive. A strong returning defense makes them terrors to opponents. However, a lack of skilled receivers makes the Tigers offense move very slowly. That won't help against some of the defenses in this conference.
4. Maryland Terrapins (4-4/6-6) : The inconsistency at QB may not be such a big problem this year, as a lack of talented wide receivers will cause a shift to the running game. The defense looks better, so a running scheme might work for the Terrapins. They have a good schedule, too.
5. Florida State Seminoles (3-5/4-8) : The Seminoles finally have a stable and capable QB, but a weak receiving corps and lack of runners provides little support for their QB. They have some problems on the defensive side of the ball. Worst of all, the recent off-field problems and cheating scandal shows that Coach Bowden is loosing control. Since the Seminoles have a history of giving scholarships to students with athletic ability but little self-discipline, I think this team will collapse.
6. NC State Wolfpack (2-6/4-8) : Both the offense and defense have severe problems to fix. With a quarterback who missed half of spring practice to play baseball, this team lacks cohesion and experience. It'll be a long year for Coach O'Brien and the Wolfpack loyal.
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2) : They return nearly all of last year's starters, and that was a squad that won the Orange Bowl. Without a doubt, this team is one of the toughest in the conference. The only hitch? They play tough Georgia Tech in the enemy's home.
2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2/9-3) : They return nearly all of their offense from last year, making them a huge threat again. The defense has to replace most of the front four, but a strong spring practice gives confidence that they can.
3. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/7-5) : Their young team last year has more experience, which makes them more dangerous. Miami still doesn't have the plethora of talent that marks Hurricane squads of yore, but this group should be a force in the conference.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5/5-7) : The Heels should be able to dig them in, as they return a strong defense from last season. They are strong at quarterback, but lost all three of their top receivers from last year. With holes on their offensive line, a running game seems impractical, so the Heels may struggle early.
5. Virgina Cavaliers (2-6/3-9) : With spotty performance on both sides of the ball plaguing spring practice, Coach Al Groh feels there are plenty of concerns on the team. I agree.
6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/3-9) : The Blue Devils have improved their passing game, but they still have a long way to go to be competitive in this conference.
CHAMPION: Virginia Tech over Wake Forest
Big East
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2/8-4) : Spring practice showed that the Mountaineers have replaced departing offensive starters very well, but the defense still has a ways to go.
2. South Florida Bulls (5-2/8-4) : The Bulls have some holes on the offensive line, and their defense is down from previous years, but an overall weak conference this year makes them competitors. They may have the best quarterback in the conference, so watch out for the Bulls!
3. Louisville Cardinals (3-4/6-6) : Five different quarterbacks played in spring practice, and none stood out over the others. Coach Kragthorpe has stated he won't state a starter until a week before the opening game. Fortunately all quarterbacks seem capable with the system, and a group of talented receivers will help. The defense needs some work, but things look to be improving from last season's surprisingly pathetic squad.
4. Syracuse Orangemen (3-4/5-7) : A mistake-filled spring practice makes fans concerned, but new coach Doug Marrone liked what he saw. A team that folded in too many games last year, the Orangemen showed grit and determination. They possess a sheer tenacity that might propel them through some games against this thin conference, but Syracuse still has work to do before they can return to the top of the conference.
5. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-5/5-7) : The offensive line returns, but just who they will protect remains a mystery. Spring practice did little to demonstrate who will replace the Knights' departing offensive stars. The defense has holes, too, so Rutgers finds themselves in the midst of a rebuilding year.
6. UConn Huskies (2-5/5-7) : A revamped offense should make the Huskies more unpredictable than last season, but that unpredictability can also hurt the team. Defenses will have to watch for more diversity, but the Huskies lack sufficient offensive experience to effectively do everything well. They also need to replace some key holes on defense, so it won't be a great year in Storrs.
7. Pitt Panthers (2-5/4-8) : With a weak offense and no kicking game emerging from spring practice, this team will suffer. The defense has moments, but it's thin and may suffer from injuries.
8. Cincinnati Bearcats (1-6/2-10) : The defense lost so much talent from last season's Top 25 squad that Coach Brian Kelly moved some OFFENSIVE players to defense. We'll have to see if the gimmick works, but it does thin out the defense from a team that has had injury problems in the past. Things look grim.
Sun Belt
1. Arkansas State Red Wolves (8-0/9-3) : A new nickname might mean new luck for Arkansas State, as they return most of last year's starters. They have the strongest offense in the conference, and their defense is good, too. Only Troy can really threaten them, and the Red Wolves face the Trojans at home.
2. Troy Trojans (7-1/8-4) : Their defense is the toughest in the conference, but a restructured offensive line will take a little time to adjust. Since they face Arkansas State early, I don't think that line will be ready for the Red Wolves.
Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/4-8) : Losing most of its starting defense leaves the Owls vulnerable, and a 35-point performance by the offense in the spring game demonstrates it. The offense is good, but it's a bit slow. Worse, their bench is small, so injuries could jeopardize the Owls' chances to regain the conference title.
Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/3-9) : The Panthers defense looked much improved in the spring game. That was good, as the defense was slow last year. Now the offense faces scrutiny, as they appeared confused and disoriented in the spring. They must tighten up if they want to compete in this conference. To make matters worse, they start the season with two tough road streaks. They could start the season 0-7.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (3-5/3-9) : The defense looked strong, but it appears Coach Rickey Bustle will have trouble replacing their departing offensive stars. When you look the top three scorers on the team, it is hard to regain quickly.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (3-5/4-8) : The team comes in with question marks at quarterback, holes on the offensive line, and a thin defense. To attempt to assist the defense, they are switching to a 3-3-5 to spread the defense and allow more blitzes. The defense is fast, so it might succeed early, but teams will determine schemes to beat it. This team will fade in the stretch.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : New QB Dwight Dasher lives up to his name, scrambling first and passing late. Coach Rick Stockstill wants to break him of that habit, but watching highlights of Florida QB Tim Tebow won't help. If Dasher will look for the pass, he has excellent tools to catch them. An iffy defense means this team must score, so fans are hoping Stockstill keeps Dasher off the ground.
North Texas Mean Green (2-6/2-10) : The worst defense in the conference over the past two seasons didn't improve much. With the coach's son starting at QB, the offense will go smootly, but just how much patience will Coach Dodge have if son Riley makes mistakes?
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-7/2-10) : The Hilltoppers have one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Unfortunately, after a 2-10 season last year, many of those freshmen will be pressed into service, and it might be too soon.
A Giant-sized new home?
Giants' Spring Training has begun! They are working out an the campus of the University of Albany, where I teach. I enjoy spending part of this time of year watching the team. I may not be able to enjoy it for long. As reported in our local newspaper, the Giants' current agreement with the University expires this year, and they have not yet renewed it.
Apparently, the University faces competition from the Giants' own facility. A $90 million training and office facility in East Rutherford, NJ opened earlier this year. While the team has not stated that the facility is designed for spring training, why would they build such a large and expensive facility if they did not intend to use it as much as possible?
There are further financial incentives to practice at home. They would not have to pay to have their equipment moved to Albany for training, and then moved back to East Rutherford for the season. They would also not have to pay the University $300,000 a year for the use of their facilities. Granted, the Giants WOULD have to pay for maintaining and upkeep of the practice field during training, and pay for the extra players' facilities, since the number of players at camp exceeds the number intended for use of the training facilities, but these expenses would be less than the cost of holding training camp at UAlbany.
The team claims they have no intend to move away from Albany. They enjoy the calmer environment of Albany, and find an advantage of practicing on a "foreign" field. That's one reason why most pro teams hold spring practice elsewhere -- it helps prepare for road games.
Still, with the economy being what it is, could more teams look for ways to cut costs? Could travel camps be one area cut? The Giants don't seem to have income problems, thanks to their surprise Super Bowl victory two seasons ago, but other teams might consider the option.
As a fan, I love the opportunity to see the team during camp. Moving to East Rutherford makes it further away, and the protection around the facility makes it harder to see them. And this might be the greatest reason teams choose to practice close to home or distantly -- connection to the fans. More than any other league, the NFL knows the importance of maintaining their fan base. If the spring training audience is as large as it was last year, the Giants are likely to sign a contract extension.
Apparently, the University faces competition from the Giants' own facility. A $90 million training and office facility in East Rutherford, NJ opened earlier this year. While the team has not stated that the facility is designed for spring training, why would they build such a large and expensive facility if they did not intend to use it as much as possible?
There are further financial incentives to practice at home. They would not have to pay to have their equipment moved to Albany for training, and then moved back to East Rutherford for the season. They would also not have to pay the University $300,000 a year for the use of their facilities. Granted, the Giants WOULD have to pay for maintaining and upkeep of the practice field during training, and pay for the extra players' facilities, since the number of players at camp exceeds the number intended for use of the training facilities, but these expenses would be less than the cost of holding training camp at UAlbany.
The team claims they have no intend to move away from Albany. They enjoy the calmer environment of Albany, and find an advantage of practicing on a "foreign" field. That's one reason why most pro teams hold spring practice elsewhere -- it helps prepare for road games.
Still, with the economy being what it is, could more teams look for ways to cut costs? Could travel camps be one area cut? The Giants don't seem to have income problems, thanks to their surprise Super Bowl victory two seasons ago, but other teams might consider the option.
As a fan, I love the opportunity to see the team during camp. Moving to East Rutherford makes it further away, and the protection around the facility makes it harder to see them. And this might be the greatest reason teams choose to practice close to home or distantly -- connection to the fans. More than any other league, the NFL knows the importance of maintaining their fan base. If the spring training audience is as large as it was last year, the Giants are likely to sign a contract extension.
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