We had an interesting rivalry weekend, where the underdog won most games between ranked teams. Several games between ranked and unranked teams ended up with the underdog winning, too, which is an interesting lead-in to the conference championships.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (12-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [3]
4. UCF Golden Knights (11-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (11-1) [7]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [8]
7. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) [6]
8. Michigan Wolverines (10-2) [4]
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3) [13]
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-2) [14]
11. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [15]
12. Washington State Cougars (10-2) [8]
13. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [11]
14. Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (9-3) [16]
17. LSU Tigers (9-3) [10]
18. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [12]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [20]
20. Florida Gators (9-3) [22]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [21]
22. Washington Huskies (9-3) [23]
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) [24]
24. Syracuse Orange (9-3) [25]
25. Buffalo Bulls (10-2) [NR]
Dropped off: UAB Blazers [#19]
On the Edge: Temple Owls (8-4), Memphis Tigers (8-4), Utah Utes (9-3), North Texas Mean Green (9-3), Houston Cougars (8-4)
I will go over the conference championship games in order they will be played.
MAC Championship: #25 Buffalo Bills v Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies are always dangerous, as they have been here many times, but I really like the Bulls. Buffalo has the best offense in the conference, but Northern Illinois has the best defense. The Huskies are great at causing turnovers, and then making the most of those turnovers. If Buffalo can prevent making mistakes, this conference title will be theirs. BUFFALO
Pac-12 Championship: Utah Utes v #22 Washington Huskies: Utah comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, and an offense that has been improving as the season progressed. For Washington, defense has been a stronger focus than offense, and that defense stymied the best offense in the conference last week (although the snow may have helped). Despite the preference for a fancy and quick offense, a well-played defense is crucial in title games, and Washington plays defense very well. Utah has the tools to win this game, but I have to favor the Apple Bowl champs. WASHINGTON
Big XII: #16 Texas Longhorns v #7 Oklahoma Sooners: The Big XII Conference wanted a faux conference championship, thinking they needed an additional game to impress the playoff selection committee. That might bite them in the butt here. Texas has already beaten Oklahoma once at a neutral site, and that was before Texas had fully gotten their offense coordinated. They are even more deadly now. What's worse is Oklahoma's defense, which has faltered in the last month. Over this time, their opponents have averaged 47 points per game. Yes, Oklahoma won those games, but only in the case of Kansas did they win by more than 3 points. Texas has the ability and talent to upset the Sooners, and I think they will. That will cause the Sooners, and the Big XII's, playoff chances to evaporate. So much for the philosophy of a conference championship. TEXAS
Sun Belt: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at #14 Appalachian State Mountaineers: Talk about strong defenses, that's the Mountaineers. Louisiana got past perennial winner Arkansas State to reach the conference championship, but getting past Appalachian State will be too much. APPALACHIAN STATE
Conference USA: UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: UAB is one of the few conference championship teams coming into the game on a loss. In fact, they've lost two in a row. Worse, the team who just beat them is this same Blue Raiders team, and they handily destroyed them. UAB will spend this week examining that game, so they may be more competitive, but I fear another loss in the works here. The Raiders have really improved their offense in the past few weeks, and that offense shredded the Blazers last week. I don't see much changing in the rematch. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
American Athletic: Memphis Tigers at #4 UCF Golden Knights: I'm sure Memphis would like the chance to finally end UCF's winning streak, but I don't see it. Yes, they beat Houston last week, but Houston's defense had been faltering for a few weeks. UCF is strong, sturdy, and seemingly indestructible. UCF
SEC: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Many of the national analysts are looking at a potential Georgia upset. That's because the SEC favoritism spurs them to want another Georgia v Alabama national championship. Ain't gonna happen. No discredit to Georgia, but they don't match up as well. Alabama had some struggles last year, especially with injuries. This year, they have the toughest defense in the SEC (although Mississippi State comes close) and the best offense BY FAR. No other team in the SEC comes within 100 points and 75 yards per game than Alabama. And after engineering two masterful second half performances in a row the past two weeks, this team knows they can accomplish anything, so nothing Georgia does will slow them or discourage them. ALABAMA
Mountain West: #10 Fresno State Bulldogs at #11 Boise State Broncos: Boise State earned their spot in this game by slowing the best offense in the country. That shows the strength of their defense. The only defense better in the conference? Their opponent in this game. Fresno State is potent, allowing only one team to score more than 20 points against them. That team was Boise State. This game will be close, and the lead will switch, but I think Fresno State will have learned about the Broncos from their last game, and come better prepared. FRESNO STATE
ACC: #2 Clemson Tigers v Pittsburgh Panthers: This one has the makings to be the most one-sided conference championship of them all, even more than the Sun Belt. CLEMSON
Big Ten: Northwestern Wilcats v #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: Northwestern got here by winning some incredible close games, and causing some turnovers at key moments. Okay, the turnover part might be a concern for Ohio State, but as far as close games? Ohio State has had only three, and won them all. I don't see Northwestern winning this game. OHIO STATE
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Thursday, November 22, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 13 picks
Thurs Nov 22
#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels: For the first time in a long time, the Texas Longhorns do not play on Thanksgiving Day. Instead the Mississippi state rivalry takes center stage, and the Rebels act like a few of their roles are played by stand-ins. To say it has been a disappointing conference season for the 1-6 Rebels would be an understatement. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Fri Nov 23
#16 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: The Longhorns don't have a shot at the conference title, but a win here closes out a great season. TEXAS
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes: The Cornhuskers have won four of their last five games, including the baseball-style score of 9-6 against Michigan State last week. However, to beat Iowa on their home field requires a bit more moxie than Nebraska has shown. They may make this one closer than Hawkeye fans would like, though. IOWA
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers: This game determines the American Athletic West winner and UCF's opponent in the conference championship game. Houston has definitely looked better recently, but Memphis started the season strong. Momentum seems to favor the Cougars. HOUSTON
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons: The Bulls might rest some players to keep them healthy for the MAC Championship, but they should be able to beat struggling Bowling Green. BUFFALO
East Carolina Pirates at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: The usually fierce Pirates defense has no ammo this season. CINCINNATI
#5 UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls vaulted defense is empty this season, so UCF should be able to score practically at will this game. UCF
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 West Virginia Mountaineers: This game decides the regular season winner of the conference (since the "Big XII Championship Game" is just for show). West Virginia is still a threat, especially on defense, but that Oklahoma offense is a monster. Unless the Mountaineers score on a couple of turnovers, the Sooners should win this. OKLAHOMA
#23 Washington Huskies at #8 Washington State Cougars: This in-state rivalry determines the Pac-12 North. It features the best offense in the conference against the best defense in the conference. Defense often wins those bouts, so Washington will be dangerous, but the Cougars keep finding ways to win. I think Washington will lead late in the fourth, but the Cougars will barely pull this one out. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Nov 24
Top 25
Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Auburn has not had a great year, but the temptation to win the Iron Bowl will motivate the guys. Unfortunately, motivation alone will not be enough to halt the behemoth that is the Tide. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Clemson Tigers: Clemson will likely have an even easier time against South Carolina than Alabama will in the Iron Bowl. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Trojans play tough in the Rose Bowl, but I don't see how the Irish will lose this game. Playoffs, here you come! NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: Wow, it is really hard to pick the Buckeyes to lose at home in the Big Game, but they have just seemed to play a bit "off" in recent weeks. Unless they have been looking ahead to this game and not concentrating on their other opponents, the Wolverines definitely seem like the stronger team. Never count out the Buckeyes in the Big Game, especially in the Horseshoe, but I have to favor Michigan to win their first division title ever. MICHIGAN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Like Alabama and Clemson, this should be an easy victory. GEORGIA
#10 LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although you can never count out the Aggies, this year's squad has allowed more points to SEC opponents than they've scored. That's not a good sign. LSU
#11 Utah State Aggies at #15 Boise State Broncos: A contest with some teeth in it! Not only will it decide the Mountain division title (and the front-runner to win the Mountain West Championship), but it pits two of the most exciting offenses against each other. This game should exceed 100 points, with Utah State coming out on top by a single score (or less). UTAH STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions: The Terrapins may have exhausted themselves against Ohio State last week. If they still have some gas, they can scare the Lions, but I think Penn State gets them at the right time. PENN STATE
San Jose State Spartans at #14 Fresno State Bulldogs: It's Bulldog filled weekend, and so far the Dawgs are out, and winning. FRESNO STATE
Troy Trojans at #17 Appalachian State Mountaineers: This game decides the Sun Belt East, and pits the two best defenses against each other. In a defensive battle it can be anyone's game, but I favor the home team here. APPALACHIAN STATE
#19 UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is a strong team, and if UAB takes a breather to prepare for the Conference USA Championship, they could lose here. I don't think they will, as a Middle Tennessee win could potentially put the Raiders into the Championship, and I don't think UAB wants to face them two weeks in a row. UAB
#22 Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles: This in-state rivalry should easily go to the visitors. FLORIDA
#25 Syracuse Orange at Boston College Eagles: The Orange need a strong game to bounce back from the atrocious performance against Notre Dame. The Eagles could give them a challenge, but I think the Orange will prevail. SYRACUSE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats could rest some guys in preparation of the battle they would expect next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the rivalry between these two schools will likely prevent anyone from wanting to sit this one out. That spells doom for the Illini. NORTHWESTERN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans: Could Rutgers win their first conference game in the last week of the season? That would make a great movie, but this is real life. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana has played some teams tough, but they just can't seem to close most games. I think they'll have the same problem here, as they might lead at the end of the third quarter, but Purdue will come out swinging at the end. PURDUE
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: Would you believe Wisconsin has been to more Big Ten Championship Games than any other team (5 out of 7)? They won't be there this year, but they will end their season with a win. WISCONSIN
Other Games of Interest
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Panthers need the win to ensure a division title, regardless of how Middle Tennessee plays UAB. Marshall can be a tough opponent, so that won't be easy, but I think the home team will squeak this one out. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Temple Owls at UConn Huskies: Not much of a challenge here, as UConn hasn't won a single American Athletic game all season. TEMPLE
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners: The Roadrunners have the worst offense in Conference USA, and their defense isn't much better. No contest. NORTH TEXAS
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: The Battle for Utah should go to the Utes, although don't expect BYU to roll over. UTAH
#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels: For the first time in a long time, the Texas Longhorns do not play on Thanksgiving Day. Instead the Mississippi state rivalry takes center stage, and the Rebels act like a few of their roles are played by stand-ins. To say it has been a disappointing conference season for the 1-6 Rebels would be an understatement. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Fri Nov 23
#16 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: The Longhorns don't have a shot at the conference title, but a win here closes out a great season. TEXAS
Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Iowa Hawkeyes: The Cornhuskers have won four of their last five games, including the baseball-style score of 9-6 against Michigan State last week. However, to beat Iowa on their home field requires a bit more moxie than Nebraska has shown. They may make this one closer than Hawkeye fans would like, though. IOWA
Houston Cougars at Memphis Tigers: This game determines the American Athletic West winner and UCF's opponent in the conference championship game. Houston has definitely looked better recently, but Memphis started the season strong. Momentum seems to favor the Cougars. HOUSTON
Buffalo Bulls at Bowling Green Falcons: The Bulls might rest some players to keep them healthy for the MAC Championship, but they should be able to beat struggling Bowling Green. BUFFALO
East Carolina Pirates at #18 Cincinnati Bearcats: The usually fierce Pirates defense has no ammo this season. CINCINNATI
#5 UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls vaulted defense is empty this season, so UCF should be able to score practically at will this game. UCF
#6 Oklahoma Sooners at #12 West Virginia Mountaineers: This game decides the regular season winner of the conference (since the "Big XII Championship Game" is just for show). West Virginia is still a threat, especially on defense, but that Oklahoma offense is a monster. Unless the Mountaineers score on a couple of turnovers, the Sooners should win this. OKLAHOMA
#23 Washington Huskies at #8 Washington State Cougars: This in-state rivalry determines the Pac-12 North. It features the best offense in the conference against the best defense in the conference. Defense often wins those bouts, so Washington will be dangerous, but the Cougars keep finding ways to win. I think Washington will lead late in the fourth, but the Cougars will barely pull this one out. WASHINGTON STATE
Sat Nov 24
Top 25
Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Auburn has not had a great year, but the temptation to win the Iron Bowl will motivate the guys. Unfortunately, motivation alone will not be enough to halt the behemoth that is the Tide. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Clemson Tigers: Clemson will likely have an even easier time against South Carolina than Alabama will in the Iron Bowl. CLEMSON
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Trojans play tough in the Rose Bowl, but I don't see how the Irish will lose this game. Playoffs, here you come! NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: Wow, it is really hard to pick the Buckeyes to lose at home in the Big Game, but they have just seemed to play a bit "off" in recent weeks. Unless they have been looking ahead to this game and not concentrating on their other opponents, the Wolverines definitely seem like the stronger team. Never count out the Buckeyes in the Big Game, especially in the Horseshoe, but I have to favor Michigan to win their first division title ever. MICHIGAN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: Like Alabama and Clemson, this should be an easy victory. GEORGIA
#10 LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although you can never count out the Aggies, this year's squad has allowed more points to SEC opponents than they've scored. That's not a good sign. LSU
#11 Utah State Aggies at #15 Boise State Broncos: A contest with some teeth in it! Not only will it decide the Mountain division title (and the front-runner to win the Mountain West Championship), but it pits two of the most exciting offenses against each other. This game should exceed 100 points, with Utah State coming out on top by a single score (or less). UTAH STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions: The Terrapins may have exhausted themselves against Ohio State last week. If they still have some gas, they can scare the Lions, but I think Penn State gets them at the right time. PENN STATE
San Jose State Spartans at #14 Fresno State Bulldogs: It's Bulldog filled weekend, and so far the Dawgs are out, and winning. FRESNO STATE
Troy Trojans at #17 Appalachian State Mountaineers: This game decides the Sun Belt East, and pits the two best defenses against each other. In a defensive battle it can be anyone's game, but I favor the home team here. APPALACHIAN STATE
#19 UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is a strong team, and if UAB takes a breather to prepare for the Conference USA Championship, they could lose here. I don't think they will, as a Middle Tennessee win could potentially put the Raiders into the Championship, and I don't think UAB wants to face them two weeks in a row. UAB
#22 Florida Gators at Florida State Seminoles: This in-state rivalry should easily go to the visitors. FLORIDA
#25 Syracuse Orange at Boston College Eagles: The Orange need a strong game to bounce back from the atrocious performance against Notre Dame. The Eagles could give them a challenge, but I think the Orange will prevail. SYRACUSE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Irish at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats could rest some guys in preparation of the battle they would expect next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the rivalry between these two schools will likely prevent anyone from wanting to sit this one out. That spells doom for the Illini. NORTHWESTERN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans: Could Rutgers win their first conference game in the last week of the season? That would make a great movie, but this is real life. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana has played some teams tough, but they just can't seem to close most games. I think they'll have the same problem here, as they might lead at the end of the third quarter, but Purdue will come out swinging at the end. PURDUE
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: Would you believe Wisconsin has been to more Big Ten Championship Games than any other team (5 out of 7)? They won't be there this year, but they will end their season with a win. WISCONSIN
Other Games of Interest
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Panthers need the win to ensure a division title, regardless of how Middle Tennessee plays UAB. Marshall can be a tough opponent, so that won't be easy, but I think the home team will squeak this one out. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Temple Owls at UConn Huskies: Not much of a challenge here, as UConn hasn't won a single American Athletic game all season. TEMPLE
North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners: The Roadrunners have the worst offense in Conference USA, and their defense isn't much better. No contest. NORTH TEXAS
BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: The Battle for Utah should go to the Utes, although don't expect BYU to roll over. UTAH
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
NFL 2018 Week 12 picks
It's Thanksgiving week, and the NFL gives us a feast of games on Turkey Day. This year, we get a trio of divisional contests, a situation rarely seen on Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is treating a sore shoulder, but the Bears won't need him in top shape to overwhelm the Lions. They just need to have their defense pressure fragile Lions QB Matthew Stafford. A couple of interceptions and several drop balls will plague the Lions offense and ensure a Bears win. BEARS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: With Alex Smith gone for the season, the Redskins bring in journeyman Colt McCoy (a native Texan) to battle the Cowboys. Nice try, but the infusion of hometown blood won't help the Redskins escape Dallas with a win. COWBOYS, 24-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: What would it take to slow the record-setting Drew Brees and his dynamic Saints offense? More than the Falcons have got. SAINTS, 34-24
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: It has not been a great season for the Bengals, and the Browns are definitely improving, but this game will finish like most contests between these two have been. A close game, and a bit lackluster in performance. BENGALS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have the lowest-producing offense in the league, now that the Giants have woken up. The Jags offense isn't much better. Where the Jags ARE better, though, is defense. The Bills will have a tough time moving up the field in this game. JAGS, 23-16
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets think QB Sam Darnold will be ready to play in this game. Truthfully, they might be better to let him sit. I don't think the Jets will beat the Patriots with him, and that feisty Patriots defense might aggravate Darnold's condition. Let him sit one out. PATS, 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Who lit the fire under the Giants' butt? Oh yeah, it was Odell Beckham, Junior. Since he announced that the Giants were equipped to win all of their remaining eight games, they have gone out and won two in a row. Great accomplishment! Can they keep that going? God knows the Eagles have done everything in their power to diminish themselves, pushing their record to 4-6 and so far on track to be the second-worst performing Super Bowl Champion defender in league history. The Eagles are suffering from some of the same in-fighting the Giants faced before Beckham got them motivated. The question is, will motivation alone get them past the Eagles? It shouldn't, but it might. I'll pick the Eagles, but watch out for the Giants streak to continue. EAGLES, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Could Lamar Jackson have been the spark the Ravens needed? He certainly rejuvenated the offense last week. Of course, against the struggling Raiders, even washout Johnny Manziel could succeed. RAVENS, 28-17
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs have flipped back to Jameis Winston to start this week. I guess they forgot what caused them to switch quarterbacks three weeks ago. Ah well, this is likely a lost season for the Bucs, so give Winston some extended practice time. The Bucs might actually win this game, only because the 49ers are forced to play a third-string QB who had played a total of two games before this season. Remember, a Nick Mullins-led 49ers squad losing to the Giants is what started them on their two-game streak. The Giants other victory? Against a Winston-led Bucs team. Call this the"Battle of the teams worse than the Giants". BUCS, 26-23
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers lost to Detroit due to problems with kicker Graham Gano and a missed 2-point conversion. Could Gano get himself back on track? He might have to, as these two teams are evenly-matched enough that it could down to a field goal difference. I give the Seahawks the edge there, but watch to see if Gano saves the day at the end of the game. SEAHAWKS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: Let's consider last week an aberration. The Chargers should maul the Cardinals pretty easily. CHARGERS, 27-16
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has gotten fired up, and that has resulted in a rejuvenated Colts team. Aside from the Saints, nobody has looked better on offense the past two weeks. That should continue here, as the Dolphins are not the strongest on defense. COLTS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: Denver should be able to score against the bruised Steelers defense, but Big Ben will drive the Steelers just a little bit better. Both teams like to run the ball, so expect a big ground attack. STEELERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Kurt Cousins hasn't been as beneficial to the Vikings as they hoped, but injuries are dragging down the Pack. While this one will be close, it won't end in a tie, like their first meeting this season. VIKINGS, 24-23
Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: While attention has been shown other teams, Houston has quietly amassed a 7-3 record and lead the AFC South. The Texans aren't flashy, but they get the job done. TEXANS, 20-17
Thanksgiving Day
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is treating a sore shoulder, but the Bears won't need him in top shape to overwhelm the Lions. They just need to have their defense pressure fragile Lions QB Matthew Stafford. A couple of interceptions and several drop balls will plague the Lions offense and ensure a Bears win. BEARS, 28-20
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: With Alex Smith gone for the season, the Redskins bring in journeyman Colt McCoy (a native Texan) to battle the Cowboys. Nice try, but the infusion of hometown blood won't help the Redskins escape Dallas with a win. COWBOYS, 24-16
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: What would it take to slow the record-setting Drew Brees and his dynamic Saints offense? More than the Falcons have got. SAINTS, 34-24
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: It has not been a great season for the Bengals, and the Browns are definitely improving, but this game will finish like most contests between these two have been. A close game, and a bit lackluster in performance. BENGALS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have the lowest-producing offense in the league, now that the Giants have woken up. The Jags offense isn't much better. Where the Jags ARE better, though, is defense. The Bills will have a tough time moving up the field in this game. JAGS, 23-16
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets think QB Sam Darnold will be ready to play in this game. Truthfully, they might be better to let him sit. I don't think the Jets will beat the Patriots with him, and that feisty Patriots defense might aggravate Darnold's condition. Let him sit one out. PATS, 27-17
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Who lit the fire under the Giants' butt? Oh yeah, it was Odell Beckham, Junior. Since he announced that the Giants were equipped to win all of their remaining eight games, they have gone out and won two in a row. Great accomplishment! Can they keep that going? God knows the Eagles have done everything in their power to diminish themselves, pushing their record to 4-6 and so far on track to be the second-worst performing Super Bowl Champion defender in league history. The Eagles are suffering from some of the same in-fighting the Giants faced before Beckham got them motivated. The question is, will motivation alone get them past the Eagles? It shouldn't, but it might. I'll pick the Eagles, but watch out for the Giants streak to continue. EAGLES, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Could Lamar Jackson have been the spark the Ravens needed? He certainly rejuvenated the offense last week. Of course, against the struggling Raiders, even washout Johnny Manziel could succeed. RAVENS, 28-17
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs have flipped back to Jameis Winston to start this week. I guess they forgot what caused them to switch quarterbacks three weeks ago. Ah well, this is likely a lost season for the Bucs, so give Winston some extended practice time. The Bucs might actually win this game, only because the 49ers are forced to play a third-string QB who had played a total of two games before this season. Remember, a Nick Mullins-led 49ers squad losing to the Giants is what started them on their two-game streak. The Giants other victory? Against a Winston-led Bucs team. Call this the"Battle of the teams worse than the Giants". BUCS, 26-23
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers lost to Detroit due to problems with kicker Graham Gano and a missed 2-point conversion. Could Gano get himself back on track? He might have to, as these two teams are evenly-matched enough that it could down to a field goal difference. I give the Seahawks the edge there, but watch to see if Gano saves the day at the end of the game. SEAHAWKS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers: Let's consider last week an aberration. The Chargers should maul the Cardinals pretty easily. CHARGERS, 27-16
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck has gotten fired up, and that has resulted in a rejuvenated Colts team. Aside from the Saints, nobody has looked better on offense the past two weeks. That should continue here, as the Dolphins are not the strongest on defense. COLTS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: Denver should be able to score against the bruised Steelers defense, but Big Ben will drive the Steelers just a little bit better. Both teams like to run the ball, so expect a big ground attack. STEELERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Kurt Cousins hasn't been as beneficial to the Vikings as they hoped, but injuries are dragging down the Pack. While this one will be close, it won't end in a tie, like their first meeting this season. VIKINGS, 24-23
Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: While attention has been shown other teams, Houston has quietly amassed a 7-3 record and lead the AFC South. The Texans aren't flashy, but they get the job done. TEXANS, 20-17
Sunday, November 18, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 12 Top 25 and title races
It was trap week for many conferences except the SEC, who played most weaklings in this penultimate week of the season. Even so, Alabama faced a scare in their first half against one of the worst teams in FCS.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (11-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (10-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [7]
8. Washington State Cougars (10-1) [10]
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [8]
10. LSU Tigers (9-2) [12]
11. Utah State Aggies (10-1) [11]
12. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-2) [9]
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-3) [15]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) [16]
15. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (8-3) [19]
17. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-2) [20]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2) [14]
19. UAB Blazers (9-2) [17]
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) [23]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [22]
22. Florida Gators (8-3) [NR]
23. Washington Huskies (8-3) [NR]
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) [NR]
25. Syracuse Orange (8-3) [13]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#21], Iowa State Cyclones [#24], Virginia Cavaliers [#25]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (8-3), Temple Owls (7-4), North Texas Mean Green (8-3), Troy Trojans (9-2), Utah Utes (8-3), Wisconsin Badgers (7-4), Memphis Tigers (7-4), Florida International Golden Panthers (8-3)
Title Races
American Athletic: UCF wins the East, and will face the winner of the Houston v Memphis battle
ACC: Clemson v Pittsburgh
Big XII: The winner of the Oklahoma v West Virginia bout wins the title, as a Mountaineers already beat Texas and a Sooners win gives them the best conference record
Big Ten: Northwestern faces the winner of the Big Game (Ohio State v Michigan)
Conference USA: UAB plays the East winner, which is Florida International if they win (Middle Tennessee needs a win AND a Panthers loss)
Mountain West: Fresno State takes on the winner of the Utah State v Boise State matchup
Pac-12: Utah plays the winner of the "Battle of Washington"
Sun Belt East: The winner of the Troy v Appalachian State battle wins the division
Sun Belt West: If Louisiana wins against UL Monroe, they win. A Monroe win AND an Arkansas State win sends the Red Wolves. UL Monroe needs a win AND an Arkansas State loss.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (11-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (10-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (10-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (10-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) [7]
8. Washington State Cougars (10-1) [10]
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [8]
10. LSU Tigers (9-2) [12]
11. Utah State Aggies (10-1) [11]
12. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-2) [9]
13. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-3) [15]
14. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-2) [16]
15. Boise State Broncos (8-2) [18]
16. Texas Longhorns (8-3) [19]
17. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-2) [20]
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2) [14]
19. UAB Blazers (9-2) [17]
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-4) [23]
21. Army Black Knights (9-2) [22]
22. Florida Gators (8-3) [NR]
23. Washington Huskies (8-3) [NR]
24. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) [NR]
25. Syracuse Orange (8-3) [13]
Dropped off: Buffalo Bulls [#21], Iowa State Cyclones [#24], Virginia Cavaliers [#25]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (8-3), Temple Owls (7-4), North Texas Mean Green (8-3), Troy Trojans (9-2), Utah Utes (8-3), Wisconsin Badgers (7-4), Memphis Tigers (7-4), Florida International Golden Panthers (8-3)
Title Races
American Athletic: UCF wins the East, and will face the winner of the Houston v Memphis battle
ACC: Clemson v Pittsburgh
Big XII: The winner of the Oklahoma v West Virginia bout wins the title, as a Mountaineers already beat Texas and a Sooners win gives them the best conference record
Big Ten: Northwestern faces the winner of the Big Game (Ohio State v Michigan)
Conference USA: UAB plays the East winner, which is Florida International if they win (Middle Tennessee needs a win AND a Panthers loss)
Mountain West: Fresno State takes on the winner of the Utah State v Boise State matchup
Pac-12: Utah plays the winner of the "Battle of Washington"
Sun Belt East: The winner of the Troy v Appalachian State battle wins the division
Sun Belt West: If Louisiana wins against UL Monroe, they win. A Monroe win AND an Arkansas State win sends the Red Wolves. UL Monroe needs a win AND an Arkansas State loss.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 11 Top 25 and races
The games aren't quite complete on Saturday night, but my Top 25 is. A few surprises, but as many as we often get as we near the end of the season.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (10-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (9-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (9-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) [9]
10. Washington State Cougars (9-1) [10]
11. Utah State Aggies (9-1) [13]
12. LSU Tigers (8-2) [11]
13. Syracuse Orange (8-2) [14]
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-1) [15]
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-3) [16]
16. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) [12]
17. UAB Blazers (9-1) [17]
18. Boise State Broncos (7-2) [22]
19. Texas Longhorns (7-3) [19]
20. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-2) [23]
21. Buffalo Bulls (9-1) [25]
22. Army Black Knights (8-2) [NR]
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) [18]
24. Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) [NR]
25. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#20], Boston College Eagles [#21], Kentucky Wildcats [#24]
On the Edge: Washington Huskies (7-3), Temple Owls (6-4), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-4), North Texas Mean Green (7-3), Troy Trojans (8-2), Houston Cougars (7-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-4), Florida Gators (7-3)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF retains the lead and clinch it next week against Cincinnati. If the Bearcats win out, though, they win. Temple would need to win out, have Cincy beat UCF, and then Cincy lose their last game.
American Athletic West: This one is a four-way chaotic race among SMU, Houston, Tulane, and Memphis. Too complicated to discuss here. Let's see what next week's results hold.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson has clinched
ACC Coastal: Pitt clinches with one more win. Virginia would have to win out and hope Pitt loses both of their remaining games.
Big XII: This one seems like it will come down to the season-ending game featuring Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas has an outside chance. The Longhorns would have to win both of their remaining games while Oklahoma loses one and West Virginia loses both. That means both Oklahoma and West Virginia would have to lose next week for Texas to have a shot.
Big Ten East: This one will be decided by the Big Game, which looks like favors Michigan based on Ohio State's latest lackluster play.
Big Ten West: Northwestern has clinched the title.
Conference USA East: Middle Tennessee needs to beat UAB and hope Florida International loses a game in order to capture the division title they currently lead. Florida International already beat the Blue Raiders, so they capture the title by winning out OR UAB beating Middle Tennessee.
Conference USA West: UAB wins by winning out. One more win OR a Louisiana Tech loss also clinches the title for them.
MAC Title game features Buffalo and Northern Illinois
Mountain: If Boise State loses next week and the Aggies win, Utah State captures the crown. Otherwise, the winner of the Boise State v Utah State battle at the end of the season determines the title.
West: Fresno State's loss means that the winner of next week's San Diego State v Fresno State game is the division winner
Pac-12 North: A Washington loss clinches the title for Washington State, and that may come when they face each other at the end of the season.
Pac-12 South: A four-team race makes this a complicated division, too. Check back next week.
Sun Belt East: The battle between Troy and Appalachian State at the end of the season will decide this one, unless Appalachian State loses next week.
Sun Belt West: UL Monroe faces the other two contenders for this title, so winning out clinches this title. A split in the wins depends upon who wins and loses.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (10-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (9-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (9-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1) [9]
10. Washington State Cougars (9-1) [10]
11. Utah State Aggies (9-1) [13]
12. LSU Tigers (8-2) [11]
13. Syracuse Orange (8-2) [14]
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-1) [15]
15. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-3) [16]
16. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2) [12]
17. UAB Blazers (9-1) [17]
18. Boise State Broncos (7-2) [22]
19. Texas Longhorns (7-3) [19]
20. Appalachian State Mountaineers (7-2) [23]
21. Buffalo Bulls (9-1) [25]
22. Army Black Knights (8-2) [NR]
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4) [18]
24. Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) [NR]
25. Virginia Cavaliers (7-3) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#20], Boston College Eagles [#21], Kentucky Wildcats [#24]
On the Edge: Washington Huskies (7-3), Temple Owls (6-4), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-4), North Texas Mean Green (7-3), Troy Trojans (8-2), Houston Cougars (7-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-4), Florida Gators (7-3)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF retains the lead and clinch it next week against Cincinnati. If the Bearcats win out, though, they win. Temple would need to win out, have Cincy beat UCF, and then Cincy lose their last game.
American Athletic West: This one is a four-way chaotic race among SMU, Houston, Tulane, and Memphis. Too complicated to discuss here. Let's see what next week's results hold.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson has clinched
ACC Coastal: Pitt clinches with one more win. Virginia would have to win out and hope Pitt loses both of their remaining games.
Big XII: This one seems like it will come down to the season-ending game featuring Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas has an outside chance. The Longhorns would have to win both of their remaining games while Oklahoma loses one and West Virginia loses both. That means both Oklahoma and West Virginia would have to lose next week for Texas to have a shot.
Big Ten East: This one will be decided by the Big Game, which looks like favors Michigan based on Ohio State's latest lackluster play.
Big Ten West: Northwestern has clinched the title.
Conference USA East: Middle Tennessee needs to beat UAB and hope Florida International loses a game in order to capture the division title they currently lead. Florida International already beat the Blue Raiders, so they capture the title by winning out OR UAB beating Middle Tennessee.
Conference USA West: UAB wins by winning out. One more win OR a Louisiana Tech loss also clinches the title for them.
MAC Title game features Buffalo and Northern Illinois
Mountain: If Boise State loses next week and the Aggies win, Utah State captures the crown. Otherwise, the winner of the Boise State v Utah State battle at the end of the season determines the title.
West: Fresno State's loss means that the winner of next week's San Diego State v Fresno State game is the division winner
Pac-12 North: A Washington loss clinches the title for Washington State, and that may come when they face each other at the end of the season.
Pac-12 South: A four-team race makes this a complicated division, too. Check back next week.
Sun Belt East: The battle between Troy and Appalachian State at the end of the season will decide this one, unless Appalachian State loses next week.
Sun Belt West: UL Monroe faces the other two contenders for this title, so winning out clinches this title. A split in the wins depends upon who wins and loses.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
NCAA Football 2018 Week 11 picks
As I type this, Buffalo won last night and Miami Ohio is slaughtering Ohio. The Bulls might win their division even BEFORE playing the Bobcats next week.
Thurs Nov 8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Oh, the difference November makes. At the start of the season, Wake was tearing through opponents while NC State was barely winning. Now, the Deacons have struggling in conference while NC State (at one time) threatened Clemson's title hopes. The Wolfpack won't make the ACC Championship Game, but they'll demolish Wake. NC STATE
Fri Nov 9
Louisville Cardinals at #14 Syracuse Orange: The Cardinals have not won a single ACC game this season, and it won't start here! Syracuse is having a stellar year, and they are on track for a 10-win season. SYRACUSE
#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at #22 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State may be the strongest team in the Mountain West. Utah State gets the attention with their dynamic offense, but the Bulldogs have one of the stingiest defenses in the country. FRESNO STATE
Sat Nov 10
Top 25
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: How do we reward the Bulldogs' return to the Top 25? Throw them to the Tide as a sacrificial lamb. ALABAMA
#2 Clemson Tigers at #21 Boston College Eagles: Clemson gets to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship with a win here. That's clear incentive, as well as maintaining their unbeaten record and a spot in the playoffs. CLEMSON
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Given the problems experienced by the Noles this season, this might be the Irish's easiest game of the season. NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of easy games... MICHIGAN
Navy Midshipmen at #5 UCF Golden Knights: Navy has been mostly ineffective this season, so this game should be a breeze for the Knights. UCF
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: In-state rivalry games can always get interesting, but the Sooners shouldn't have too much difficulty knocking off the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is capable of some offense, so this one might exceed 100 total points. OKLAHOMA
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: Auburn's defense may slow Georgia, but until the Tigers offense wakes up, they won't beat the more talented teams in the conference. GEORGIA
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Ohio State has looked lackluster since barely scraping out their victory against Penn State, and the defense has definitely suffered without Nick Bosa. This will be a defensive battle, and the Spartans will likely lead at halftime (the Buckeyes have played so slowly in the first half of most of their games this season). The Buckeyes should win, but the Spartans will keep it close, like within a touchdown. OHIO STATE
TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers: TCU's conference performance has not matched their early season magic. Can they regain some of that? Not against the tough Mountaineers defense. Defense is not something frequently seen in this conference, and TCU has no defense against it. WEST VIRGINIA
#10 Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes: Colorado is another team who has struggled in conference play after a fabulous non-conference campaign, so they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE
#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas hasn't won a conference game yet. This won't be it. LSU
San Jose State Spartans at #13 Utah State Aggies: The Aggies have the best offense in the conference, and one of the best offenses in the country. They will overwhelm the struggling Spartans. UTAH STATE
South Florida Bulls at #15 Cincinati Bearcats: Cincinnati has a tough defense. The Bulls are typically a defensive team, but their defense has been lacking this season. This will be a pretty one-sided game. CINCINNATI
Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has struggled since their close loss to Ohio State. If they cannot regain their form, Wisconsin will sting them. The Badgers have a strong running game, so the Lions defensive line will help them. However, when the running game is struggling, the Badgers can sometimes pull out some interesting plays to rejuvenate the offense. If they do that in this game, Wisconsin could pull off the upset. PENN STATE
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #17 UAB Blazers: The Blazers have a blazing defense. They have averaged allowing less than seven points per Conference USA opponent. Will the Eagles do that? They may score more than 7 points, but not by much; not enough to win. UAB
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern is an interesting team this year. They have not been impressive, but they seem to produce just enough to win. They have lost only one conference game this season, despite losing all of their non-conference games. Iowa typically is the team that plays up to the skill level of their opponent, but they are faltering a bit this year. Iowa has the talent to win this game, but will Northwestern pull off another "just enough" victory? I'll pick Iowa, but they cannot make stupid mistakes. IOWA
#19 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders: This could be an interesting game. Texas has a better defense, but the Raiders have a strong offense. How good is that Texas defense? They couldn't hold back Oklahoma, but won the Red River Rivalry by an offensive flurry. Can they do that again? I think so, but watch for an upset here. TEXAS
#23 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats: One of the weaker offenses in the Sun Belt faces the toughest defense. This doesn't seem to be a challenge. APPALACHIAN STATE
#24 Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee's defense has wilted, so this will be an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats offense to shine. KENTUCKY
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Las Vegas thinks the Cornhuskers will win by 17 points. I think the margin of victory, and I think the winner is wrong. Illinois is starting to get themselves together on offense, and their defense has been pretty good. Nebraska crumbles against a decent defense. ILLINOIS
Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers: Vegas also favors Indiana, which shows they haven't been paying attention at all. Indiana's defense sucks, so the Terrapins will move the ball at will. The Hoosiers offense is okay, but they won't be able to keep pace. MARYLAND
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Purdue is chasing Northwestern for a shot at the Big Ten title. Minnesota, after a fabulous non-conference schedule, has collapsed. No contest. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles: Troy leads the East division, and a win here would make them the clear frontrunner. Georgia Southern is no easy target, though. They have already beaten Appalachian State. A win here would give them tiebreaker control over both of their competitors for the division title. Troy has the better stats, but only by a slim margin. I have to favor the determination of the home team, especially after their performance against Appalachian State. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion is struggling in conference play, which should give North Texas a clear edge. NORTH TEXAS
UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils: This has not been UCLA's year. While they would love to engineer an upset over Herm Edwards and his young Sun Devils squad, I don't think they have the power to do it. ARIZONA STATE
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Houston leads the West while Temple wants to keep pace with Cincy and UCF in the East. Admirable goal, and they have already beaten Cincy to help that cause, but Houston's high-powered offense will prove too much. HOUSTON
Thurs Nov 8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Oh, the difference November makes. At the start of the season, Wake was tearing through opponents while NC State was barely winning. Now, the Deacons have struggling in conference while NC State (at one time) threatened Clemson's title hopes. The Wolfpack won't make the ACC Championship Game, but they'll demolish Wake. NC STATE
Fri Nov 9
Louisville Cardinals at #14 Syracuse Orange: The Cardinals have not won a single ACC game this season, and it won't start here! Syracuse is having a stellar year, and they are on track for a 10-win season. SYRACUSE
#12 Fresno State Bulldogs at #22 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State may be the strongest team in the Mountain West. Utah State gets the attention with their dynamic offense, but the Bulldogs have one of the stingiest defenses in the country. FRESNO STATE
Sat Nov 10
Top 25
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: How do we reward the Bulldogs' return to the Top 25? Throw them to the Tide as a sacrificial lamb. ALABAMA
#2 Clemson Tigers at #21 Boston College Eagles: Clemson gets to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship with a win here. That's clear incentive, as well as maintaining their unbeaten record and a spot in the playoffs. CLEMSON
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Given the problems experienced by the Noles this season, this might be the Irish's easiest game of the season. NOTRE DAME
#4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of easy games... MICHIGAN
Navy Midshipmen at #5 UCF Golden Knights: Navy has been mostly ineffective this season, so this game should be a breeze for the Knights. UCF
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners: In-state rivalry games can always get interesting, but the Sooners shouldn't have too much difficulty knocking off the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is capable of some offense, so this one might exceed 100 total points. OKLAHOMA
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: Auburn's defense may slow Georgia, but until the Tigers offense wakes up, they won't beat the more talented teams in the conference. GEORGIA
#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Ohio State has looked lackluster since barely scraping out their victory against Penn State, and the defense has definitely suffered without Nick Bosa. This will be a defensive battle, and the Spartans will likely lead at halftime (the Buckeyes have played so slowly in the first half of most of their games this season). The Buckeyes should win, but the Spartans will keep it close, like within a touchdown. OHIO STATE
TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers: TCU's conference performance has not matched their early season magic. Can they regain some of that? Not against the tough Mountaineers defense. Defense is not something frequently seen in this conference, and TCU has no defense against it. WEST VIRGINIA
#10 Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes: Colorado is another team who has struggled in conference play after a fabulous non-conference campaign, so they don't appear to be much of a threat to the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE
#11 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas hasn't won a conference game yet. This won't be it. LSU
San Jose State Spartans at #13 Utah State Aggies: The Aggies have the best offense in the conference, and one of the best offenses in the country. They will overwhelm the struggling Spartans. UTAH STATE
South Florida Bulls at #15 Cincinati Bearcats: Cincinnati has a tough defense. The Bulls are typically a defensive team, but their defense has been lacking this season. This will be a pretty one-sided game. CINCINNATI
Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has struggled since their close loss to Ohio State. If they cannot regain their form, Wisconsin will sting them. The Badgers have a strong running game, so the Lions defensive line will help them. However, when the running game is struggling, the Badgers can sometimes pull out some interesting plays to rejuvenate the offense. If they do that in this game, Wisconsin could pull off the upset. PENN STATE
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #17 UAB Blazers: The Blazers have a blazing defense. They have averaged allowing less than seven points per Conference USA opponent. Will the Eagles do that? They may score more than 7 points, but not by much; not enough to win. UAB
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern is an interesting team this year. They have not been impressive, but they seem to produce just enough to win. They have lost only one conference game this season, despite losing all of their non-conference games. Iowa typically is the team that plays up to the skill level of their opponent, but they are faltering a bit this year. Iowa has the talent to win this game, but will Northwestern pull off another "just enough" victory? I'll pick Iowa, but they cannot make stupid mistakes. IOWA
#19 Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders: This could be an interesting game. Texas has a better defense, but the Raiders have a strong offense. How good is that Texas defense? They couldn't hold back Oklahoma, but won the Red River Rivalry by an offensive flurry. Can they do that again? I think so, but watch for an upset here. TEXAS
#23 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats: One of the weaker offenses in the Sun Belt faces the toughest defense. This doesn't seem to be a challenge. APPALACHIAN STATE
#24 Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee's defense has wilted, so this will be an excellent opportunity for the Wildcats offense to shine. KENTUCKY
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Las Vegas thinks the Cornhuskers will win by 17 points. I think the margin of victory, and I think the winner is wrong. Illinois is starting to get themselves together on offense, and their defense has been pretty good. Nebraska crumbles against a decent defense. ILLINOIS
Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers: Vegas also favors Indiana, which shows they haven't been paying attention at all. Indiana's defense sucks, so the Terrapins will move the ball at will. The Hoosiers offense is okay, but they won't be able to keep pace. MARYLAND
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Purdue is chasing Northwestern for a shot at the Big Ten title. Minnesota, after a fabulous non-conference schedule, has collapsed. No contest. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Troy Trojans at Georgia Southern Eagles: Troy leads the East division, and a win here would make them the clear frontrunner. Georgia Southern is no easy target, though. They have already beaten Appalachian State. A win here would give them tiebreaker control over both of their competitors for the division title. Troy has the better stats, but only by a slim margin. I have to favor the determination of the home team, especially after their performance against Appalachian State. GEORGIA SOUTHERN
North Texas Mean Green at Old Dominion Monarchs: Old Dominion is struggling in conference play, which should give North Texas a clear edge. NORTH TEXAS
UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils: This has not been UCLA's year. While they would love to engineer an upset over Herm Edwards and his young Sun Devils squad, I don't think they have the power to do it. ARIZONA STATE
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Houston leads the West while Temple wants to keep pace with Cincy and UCF in the East. Admirable goal, and they have already beaten Cincy to help that cause, but Houston's high-powered offense will prove too much. HOUSTON
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
NCAA Football Week 10 Top 25 and conference races
It's a busy week for me and a tight schedule, so I'll make this as quick as possible. This is the first week of the conference and division races, and the SEC has already locked up theirs. No conference reports, or even discussions of upsets from last week. I'll even include my pick for Tuesday's game here, as I won't have another chance to post until Wed night.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (9-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (8-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1) [11]
10. Washington State Cougars (8-1) [12]
11. LSU Tigers (7-2) [9]
12. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1) [14]
13. Utah State Aggies (8-1) [15]
14. Syracuse Orange (7-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-1) [18]
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) [10]
17. UAB Blazers (8-1) [22]
18. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) [13]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-3) [19]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) [NR]
21. Boston College Eagles (7-2) [23]
22. Boise State Broncos (6-2) [24]
23. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-2) [NR]
24. Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) [20]
25. Buffalo Bulls (8-1) [26]
Dropped off: Florida Gators [#16], Houston Cougars [#21], Utah Utes [#25]
On the Edge: North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Army Black Knights (7-2), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3), Purdue Boilermakers (5-4), Washington Huskies (7-3), NC State Wolf Pack (6-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4), Temple Owls (5-4)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF can win it by winning out, or losing only to South Florida. Cincy needs to win out, which would include beating UCF. South Florida and Temple still have remote chances, but the odds are not in their favor.
American Athletic West: SMU actually holds the tiebreaker thanks to their upset win over Houston this week. If SMU wins out and Houston loses, the Mustangs win. A Houston loss to Tulane could make things interesting. Memphis has a very outside chance, but things don't look good for them.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson wins this by beating Boston College this week. An Eagles upset puts them in the driver's seat, but a season closing match against Syracuse would make life interesting. Nobody else has a chance.
ACC Coastal: Pitt wins by winning out. A Panthers victory over Virginia Tech this week leaves only Virginia with a slim chance. The Cavs would have to win out and hope Pitt loses two games. Not likely.
Big XII: This one could come down to the Sooners v Mountaineers on Nov 23rd. A win by both teams this week practically guarantees that game deciding the regular season champ.
Big Ten East: This game has come down to the result of the Big Game -- Ohio State v Michigan.
Big Ten West: It's Northwestern's to lose. If they beat Iowa this week, they don't mathematically clinch it, but they make it almost unattainable for anyone else.
Conference USA East: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders have the easier stretch of games. A loss by the Golden Panthers gives the benefit to Mid Tenn. Charlotte and Marshall have outside chances, but things have to go their way.
Conference USA West: One more conference win by the Blazers gives them the win.
MAC East: If Buffalo beats Ohio in two weeks, they capture the crown
MAC West: A Northern Illinois win over Toledo this week practically guarantees the title. If Western Michigan also loses this week, it is theirs.
Mountain: If both Utah State and Boise State keep winning, this one will be decided by their season-closing game. If Boise loses once before then and the Aggies do not, the Aggies have the title even before that game.
West: If Fresno State beats San Diego State next week, that pretty well sews it up. The fly in the ointment could be the Boise State contest this week. A Fresno loss means they have to win out to clinch the title. If Boise State beats Fresno, then San Diego State wins by winning out.
Pac-12 North: Washington State has the edge. This one may come down to the Washington game at the end of the season, unless the Huskies lose again.
Pac-12 South: This division is wide open. Let's see what happens this week.
Sun Belt East: Troy leads, and face their two runners-up in the weeks remaining. They win if they win out. A loss to either Georgia Southern or Appalachian State opens the door to that other team.
Sun Belt West: Unless Louisiana loses again, this one may be decided when the Ragin Cajuns face UL Monroe at the end of the season.
Tues Nov 6
Kent State Golden Flashes at #25 Buffalo Bulls: Buffalo should win this easily, giving them a clear shot to win the division. BUFFALO
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (9-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0) [3]
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-1) [4]
5. UCF Golden Knights (8-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) [6]
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1) [7]
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [8]
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-1) [11]
10. Washington State Cougars (8-1) [12]
11. LSU Tigers (7-2) [9]
12. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1) [14]
13. Utah State Aggies (8-1) [15]
14. Syracuse Orange (7-2) [17]
15. Cincinnati Bearcats (8-1) [18]
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) [10]
17. UAB Blazers (8-1) [22]
18. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3) [13]
19. Texas Longhorns (6-3) [19]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-3) [NR]
21. Boston College Eagles (7-2) [23]
22. Boise State Broncos (6-2) [24]
23. Appalachian State Mountaineers (6-2) [NR]
24. Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) [20]
25. Buffalo Bulls (8-1) [26]
Dropped off: Florida Gators [#16], Houston Cougars [#21], Utah Utes [#25]
On the Edge: North Texas Mean Green (7-2), Army Black Knights (7-2), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3), Purdue Boilermakers (5-4), Washington Huskies (7-3), NC State Wolf Pack (6-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4), Temple Owls (5-4)
Title Races
American Athletic East: UCF can win it by winning out, or losing only to South Florida. Cincy needs to win out, which would include beating UCF. South Florida and Temple still have remote chances, but the odds are not in their favor.
American Athletic West: SMU actually holds the tiebreaker thanks to their upset win over Houston this week. If SMU wins out and Houston loses, the Mustangs win. A Houston loss to Tulane could make things interesting. Memphis has a very outside chance, but things don't look good for them.
ACC Atlantic: Clemson wins this by beating Boston College this week. An Eagles upset puts them in the driver's seat, but a season closing match against Syracuse would make life interesting. Nobody else has a chance.
ACC Coastal: Pitt wins by winning out. A Panthers victory over Virginia Tech this week leaves only Virginia with a slim chance. The Cavs would have to win out and hope Pitt loses two games. Not likely.
Big XII: This one could come down to the Sooners v Mountaineers on Nov 23rd. A win by both teams this week practically guarantees that game deciding the regular season champ.
Big Ten East: This game has come down to the result of the Big Game -- Ohio State v Michigan.
Big Ten West: It's Northwestern's to lose. If they beat Iowa this week, they don't mathematically clinch it, but they make it almost unattainable for anyone else.
Conference USA East: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Middle Tennessee, but the Blue Raiders have the easier stretch of games. A loss by the Golden Panthers gives the benefit to Mid Tenn. Charlotte and Marshall have outside chances, but things have to go their way.
Conference USA West: One more conference win by the Blazers gives them the win.
MAC East: If Buffalo beats Ohio in two weeks, they capture the crown
MAC West: A Northern Illinois win over Toledo this week practically guarantees the title. If Western Michigan also loses this week, it is theirs.
Mountain: If both Utah State and Boise State keep winning, this one will be decided by their season-closing game. If Boise loses once before then and the Aggies do not, the Aggies have the title even before that game.
West: If Fresno State beats San Diego State next week, that pretty well sews it up. The fly in the ointment could be the Boise State contest this week. A Fresno loss means they have to win out to clinch the title. If Boise State beats Fresno, then San Diego State wins by winning out.
Pac-12 North: Washington State has the edge. This one may come down to the Washington game at the end of the season, unless the Huskies lose again.
Pac-12 South: This division is wide open. Let's see what happens this week.
Sun Belt East: Troy leads, and face their two runners-up in the weeks remaining. They win if they win out. A loss to either Georgia Southern or Appalachian State opens the door to that other team.
Sun Belt West: Unless Louisiana loses again, this one may be decided when the Ragin Cajuns face UL Monroe at the end of the season.
Tues Nov 6
Kent State Golden Flashes at #25 Buffalo Bulls: Buffalo should win this easily, giving them a clear shot to win the division. BUFFALO
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