NFL 2024 Week 17 Power Rankings and Week 18 picks

 The top two seeds in the AFC are set, and all playoff slots are filled except one.  In the NFC, seeds are up for grabs, but all wildcard teams are set, while only one division winner has been determined.  Jockeying for playoff position affected the Power Rankings:

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (14-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) [2]

3.  Minnesota Vikings (14-2) [3]

4.  Buffalo Bills (13-3) [4]

5.  Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) [6]

6.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5) [7]

7.  Green Bay Packers (11-5) [5]

8.  Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) [11]

9.  Washington Commanders (11-5) [9]

10. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-7) [12]

11. Denver Broncos (9-7) [8]

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) [10]

13. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) [14]

14. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) [16]

15. Seattle Seahawks (9-7) [15]

16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) [19]

17. Houston Texans (9-7) [13]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  AFC West [2]

3.  NFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

The key to the games in this final week is what teams will rest starters for the playoffs.  That is not likely in the NFC, where important seeds are still up for grabs.  Even among the wildcard teams, who will be on the road, they want to avoid being the seventh seed, and having to face the second best team in the NFC North.

Saturday games

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens : This game will clinch the division for the Ravens.  They have had great success against the Browns, they want the division title, and they want revenge for a loss to the Browns earlier in the season.  Give this one to the Ravens.  RAVENS, 27-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers have been stumbling a bit lately, and the Bengals are good enough to exploit that.  The Steelers will know if they have a chance at the divisional title when this game starts. If the Ravens win, how hard will they fight?  They do have to compete with the Chargers for the fifth seed, so they won't slack off.  STEELERS, 24-17

Sunday early games

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots : The Bills are the second seed.  Bills QB Josh Allen will start and play the first drive, but we won't see him again (he's just starting to maintain his consecutive game record).  Even with a slate of second teamers, the Bills might be able to beat the Patriots, especially with a stiff defensive effort.  BILLS, 16-13

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons : As miniscule as it can be, the Falcons still have a slim shot at the playoffs, but they need a win and lots of help.  That means they won't rest any of their starters, and that crew should be good enough to get past the Panthers, provided the Panthers defense doesn't five Pennix a hard time.  FALCONS, 27-23

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers : The Packers want the sixth seed to prevent playing either Detroit or Minnesota, so they'll play hard.  Given the Bears' woes, it wouldn't matter.  PACK, 24-9

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans : Houston has the fourth seed, so they are likely to rest their starters.  Now the question is whether the Titans will deliberately tank the game?  Likely not.  The Browns are likely to lose against the Ravens, and that will place them in the lead for the top draft pick unless the Giants utterly tank).  TITANS, 13-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts : Neither team is playoff bound, so this is their last game.  Everybody will want to play.  The Colts have looked good in recent weeks, so I have to give them the edge to cap their season with a win.  COLTS, 27-16

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs : It's easy for the Bucs -- if they win, they win the division.  Then they hope the Rams lose so they get the third seed.  BUCS, 28-13

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles : The Eagles have some injuries issues, so how many players will they rest?  Let's face it, they will be the second seed regardless of whether they win or lose, so this game won't matter.  Then the question is, can the Giants beat a rag-tag squad of Eagles?  I don't think the Giants will win, but it will be closer than expected, and should give the Browns the top pick in the draft.  EAGLES, 17-13

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys : The Commanders are in the playoffs, but they don't want to be the seventh seed.  They need a win to stay ahead of the Pack, so they will play.  This will be Zeke's last game with the Cowboys, so the Dallas fans would love for him to have a big game, but I don't see it.  COMMANDERS, 27-17

Sunday late games

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos : Most of the Chiefs starters will rest, so the talented Broncos team gets a win.  BRONCOS, 27-13

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders : The Chargers are in the playoffs.  Now they want the fifth seed.  They'll fight for it in Vegas.  In this case, what happens in Vegas won't stay there, it will affect the entire AFC.  CHARGERS, 17-13

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets : The Dolphins playoff hopes are microscopic.  Doesn't mater.  The Jets are a mess, so the Dolphins should win without the playoff incentive.  DOLPHINS, 16-10

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals : The 49ers just can't get it together for divisional games this season.  CARDINALS, 24-17

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams : The Rams need a win to remain ahead of the Bucs, as they have a better conference record.  The Rams want that third seed, so they will fight and fight hard.  RAMS, 23-17

Sunday night

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions : The battle for the top seed in the NFC!  Sam Darnold has done well with the Vikings, but it's their defense that has really kept them dominant.  That defense faltered against Detroit earlier this season.  I'm not sure it will hold up again, but that's the interesting thing with the second time that teams meet in a season -- they learned some habits in the first meeting.  I favor the Lions, but this game, more than any other this week, could go the other way.  LIONS, 31-27

NFL 2024 Week 16 Power Rankings and Week 17 picks

 Some turmoil within the Power Rankings!  As the playoff races get tight, and injuries mount up, the games get more cut-throat.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (13-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) [2]

3.  Minnesota Vikings (13-2) [4]

4.  Buffalo Bills (12-3) [5]

5.  Green Bay Packers (11-4) [6]

6.  Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) [3]

7.  Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [9]

8.  Denver Broncos (9-6) [7]

9.  Washington Commanders (10-5) [10]

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [8]

11. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) [12]

12. Houston Texans (9-6) [11]

13. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-8) [13]

14. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) [16]

15. Seattle Seahawks (8-7) [14]

16. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) [19]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2 (tie).  NFC West [2]

2 (tie).  AFC West [3]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Christmas Day

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Chiefs keep finding ways to win, and the Steelers offense is a little off-kilter right now.  CHIEFS, 24-20

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans : Both teams have strong defenses and tricky QBs.  Lamar has been doing it a bit longer than Stroud.  RAVENS, 20-17

Thursday night

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears : Wither Bears.  SEAHAWKS, 23-3

Saturday

Los Angels Chargers at New England Patriots : The Pats showed a little power last week, but they couldn't sustain it.  CHARGERS, 24-10

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals : Cincy is picking up, but the Broncos have been a silent but deadly force for most of the season.  BRONCOS, 23-20

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams : The Rams are playing for a divisional title, and that should be sufficient incentive to push them to a win.  RAMS, 26-23

Sunday early games

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : Carolina has won more games than their pint differential should have allowed, and I think it will start to affect them.  The Bucs can be a tugh opponent at home.  BUCS, 27-20

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles : The Eagles play for the division title.  While the Boys would love to play spoiler, I don't see it here.  EAGLES, 27-17

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants : This is a devastating year for the Giants.  COLTS, 24-6

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints : The Saints may not have scored a point on Monday Night, but that's not a normal situation for them this season.  SAINTS, 24-13

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills : At game time, the Bills will know if they have a shot at the top seed.  Since I dn't think they do, the question is how many players will sit out this game?  Even so, I think the Jets will still lose.  Not only do the players seem deflated, but they had very poor clock management this past week.  BILLS, 20-10

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars : Both teams have struggled badly this season, but the Jags have shown life against divisional opponents.  JAGS, 16-13

Sunday late games

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings : The Pack may be playing for the playoffs, while Minnesota wants to keep pace with Detroit.  This will be a close hard-fought game, but I give the slight edge to the home team.  VIKINGS, 27-24

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns : Should be a big win for Miami.  DOLPHINS, 24-13

Sunday night

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders : Battle of the rookie QBs, but Daniels clearly has the edge.  COMMANDERS, 24-17

Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers : The Lions should roll here, maintaining their lead on the top seed.  LIONS, 27-14

NCAA 2024 Bowl games picks 2

 We are eight days into this bowl season, and the Sun Belt continues their annual tradition of early bowl success.  They have the best record of all conferences that have played at least two bowl games.  Of course, that only includes the Gang of Five conferences at this point, but it's still an impressive achievement.

I let off with games on Friday.  Let's finish up the bowl predictions...

Sat Dec 28

Fenway Bowl : UConn Huskies (9-4) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) : UConn may have the better record, but they rarely make a bowl game.  The Tar Heels are more used to this environment.  UConn is more used to this PHYSICAL environment, though, as its likely to be cold and windy in Boston.  That might give them a chance, but I'll still pick the more experienced squad.  NORTH CAROLINA by eight

Pinstripe Bowl : Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Nebraska Conrhuskers (6-6) : Another game where the team with the better record is more used to the conditions, but again I have to pick the underdog.  Nebraska played very well against the tough teams of the Big Ten, and I think the ACC lack of success in the playoffs demonstrate that that conference wasn't nearly as competitive this season.  NEBRASKA by 13

New Mexico Bowl : Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (10-3) v TCU Horned Forgs (8-4) : Another win for the Sun Belt.  LOUISIANA by 14

Camping World Bowl : #24 Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) v #11 Miami Hurricanes (10-2) : Yes, I know the bowl is no longer called that, but I'm being a traditionalist this postseason (haven't you noticed in my earlier posts?).  This is an interesting match-up.  If Iowa State plays up to their potential, they will win.  However, they have made some mistakes when they face pressure, and few teams pressure better than the Canes.  MIAMI by eight

Arizona Bowl : Miami Ohio Redhawks (8-5) v Colorado State Rams (8-4) : I'd love to see Miami Ohio win, but the MAC does not have a good reacord in bowl games.  The Rams will have lots of their fans there, too.  COLORADO STATE by 16

Military Bowl : East Carolina Pirates (7-5) v NC State Wolf Pack (6-6) : The Pirates started the season tough, but had a great run at the end.  They carry that momentum into this bowl game.  Their defense will give NC State some fits, but I'm not sure the Pirates have a good enough offense to close this one out once the Wolf Pack come up with a scheme to get past their defense.  NC STATE by ten

Alamo Bowl : #18 BYU Cougars (10-2) v #20 Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) : What is a bowl game doing playing conference opponents?  The bowls are supposed to be a chance to play teams you rarely face.  Colorado may have had a chance against that doesn't know them.  BYU won't let them get away with their trick plays.  BYU by 16

Independence Bowl : Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7) v #16 Army Black Knights : Marshall bowed out of their bowl game, allowing a team with a losing record to play.  This is unfair to Army, who deserves a chance to show off their team against a Power Four opponent.  ARMY by lots

Mon Dec 30

Music City Bowl : #23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) v Missouri Tigers (9-3) : This will likely be a close game.  Missouri certainly has a better offense, as Iowa had some issues on that side of the ball.  Iowa has the much tougher defense.  Defense usually wins close games, which gives Iowa an edge.  IOWA by six

Tues Dec 31

Outback Bowl : #12 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) v Michigan Wolverines (7-5) : Everyone is thinking about Michigan's defeat of Ohio State in "The Game", and believe that the Wolverines have momentum coming into the bowls.  You have to understand the intensity of that rivalry.  I don't think "The Game" truly represents Michigan's skill level.  That said, they might still have a chance to win, as Alabama will have some players skip the bowl game.  I'll still favor the Tide.  ALABAMA by eight

Sun Bowl : #22 Louisville Cardinals (8-4) v Washington Huskies (6-6) : Both teams had difficulties this year, but Washington did not travel well.  LOUISVILLE by 12

Citrus Bowl : #17 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) v Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3) : Both teams have strong defenses, so it won't be an explosive game.  That means a single mistake can cost you, and I'm afraid Illinois might make that mistake.  If they play error-free ball, the Illini can win, but I fear that won't be.  SOUTH CAROLINA by three

Texas Bowl : Baylor Bears (8-4) v LSU Tigers (8-4) : Baylor had a great run at the end of the season, but the Tigers just have more talent.  LSU by 17

Thurs Jan 2

Gator Bowl : Duke Blue Devils (9-3) v #10 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) : Duke had a great season, but they just won't be able to compete against the powerful Rebels team.  OLE MISS by 23

Fri Jan 3

First Responder Bowl : North Texas Mean Green (6-6) v Texas State Bobcats (7-5) : The Bobcats can play well, especially against teams with only a marginal defense.  Another Sun Belt win here.  TEXAS STATE by 17

Mayo Bowl : Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : The Gophers have a good offense.  The Hokies defense can probably hold them back for a while, but they will get tired.  So long as Minnesota doesn't shoot themselves, they should win.  MINNESOTA by nine

Sat Jan 4

Bahamas Bowl : Buffalo Bulls (8-4) v Liberty Flames (8-3) : I'd love to see Buffalo win, but the MAC frequently stumbles in bowl games.  LIBERTY by eight

NCAA 2024 Playoff First Round results and Second Round picks

 All of the first round games were pretty one-sided, which wasn't much of a surprise.  Perhaps the biggest surprise is that the game with the closest margin was Texas' bout against Clemson.  Whether that shows some weakness on the Texas squad or just a reflection of Clemson's experience, we're not sure.  The second round mgiht demonstrate that.

The second round is played in traditional bowls, and (whether intentionally or not) there are some appropriate teams playing in those bowls.

Fiesta Bowl : #4 (6th seed) Penn State Nitanny Lions v #9 (3rd seed) Boise State Broncos : Unaligned Fiesta seems the appropriate game for the playoffs' sole Gang of Five representative.  The Broncos have a strong offense, but their biggest plays are yards after the catch on mid-range passes.  However, that is the region on the field where the Lions linebackers roam, and that's the strong point of Linebacker U.  The Broncos may found trouble moving the ball.  What's worse, they win by outscoring their opponents, as their defense is not stellar.  Penn State will dominate.  PENN STATE by 18

Peach Bowl : #7 (5th seed) Texas Longhorns v #14 (4th seed) Arizona State Sun Devils : Clemson was trying to get to this game, which often featured a top ACC team, but they didn't make it.  Now it faces a former Big XII team, now in the SEC, and a former Pac-12 team, now in the Big XII.  Arizona State was a wonderful surprise team this season, as much as Indiana was.  They have talent and manage the ball very well.  Penalties are few among the Sun Devils, but can they withstand the aggressive attack by the Longhorns?  I don't think so.  TEXAS by 14

Rose Bowl : #3 (8th seed) Ohio State Buckeyes v #1 Oregon Ducks : Now this one REALLY looks traditional.  We have a former Pac-12 team facing a top Big Ten team.  THAT'S what I call a Rose Bowl!  This is the rematch of a game that Ohio State should have won, except they got a bit confused and screwed up clock management at the end of the game.  They won't do that again, and the motivation to beat Oregon this time might be enough to propel the Buckeyes to a win.  Either way, this will likely be the closest second round game.  OHIO STATE by three

Sugar Bowl : #2 (7th seed) Notre Dame Fighting Irish v #5 (2nd seed) Georgia Bulldogs : The SEC Champ plays in the Sugar Bowl; that's tradition.  This would have been an interesting game with Georgia QB Carson Beck playing.  While the Bulldogs beat Texas without him, the Irish are an entirely different story.  Their offense is intense, and their defense is a lot tougher than that of Texas.  NOTRE DAME by 13

NFL 2024 Week 15 Power Rankings and Week 16 picks

 Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (12-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) [2]

3.  Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) [3]

4.  Minnesota Vikings (12-2) [4]

5.  Buffalo Bills (11-3) [5]

6.  Green Bay Packers (10-4) [7]

7.   Denver Broncos (9-5) [8]

8.  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) [6]

9.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [11]

10. Washington Commanders (9-5) [10]

11. Houston Texans (9-5) [12]

12. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) [9]

13. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-7) [14]

14. Seattle Seahawks (8-6) [13]

15. Arizona Cardinals (7-7) [16]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  NFC West [4]

3.  AFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [3]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Thursday night

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers : This game will be very close.  Denver has silently been having a tremendous year.  The Chargers can play very well, but they also sometimes stumble.  I like the Broncos here.  BRONCOS, 27-24

Saturday afternoon

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs : Patrik Mahomes is hurt.  He may feel well enough to play, and may want to play, but with two weeks remaining in the regular season, the smart thing to do would be to sit him down.  Don't risk him getting hurt worse.  They've won the division, they nearly have a lock on the top seed, and they need him for the postseason.  With him out, they won't win.  TEXANS, 20-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens : Between these two teams, it could go either way.  The Steelers have looked better recently, but never count the Ravens out.  Given the state of both team's rosters, I like the strength of the Ravens defense in this game.  RAVENS, 17-16

Sunday early games

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers : Now team has a larger margin of loss than the Panthers.  CARDINALS, 30-10

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals : The Browns are fading.  BENGALS, 24-13

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears : The Lions defense is thinning, but the Bears offense is struggling so much, they don't need them.  LIONS, 31-16

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets : The Rams are winning the NFC West, and they seem to have found some rhythm.  The Jets are in chaos.  RAMS, 26-13

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons : The Giants aren't doing much better.  FALCONS, 27-16

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders : The Commanders have been doing well, mostly due their fabulous rookie QB, but the Eagles are intense.  Thanks to a Lions loss last week, the Eagles are playing for the top seed, and that will motivate them.  EAGLES, 34-30

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts : The Titans have fallen apart this season, and I'm not sure they can even play spoiler here at the end.  COLTS, 20-16

Sunday late games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders : The Raiders keep falling short, and I think a Jags late fourth-quarter drive will sink them again.  JAGS, 16-13

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks : The Vikings offense will just overwhelm the Seahawks defense, and the offense won't be able to keep pace.  VIKINGS, 34-16

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills : The hottest team in the AFC right now is the Bills. and they will continue this red-hot streak.  BILLS, 31-16

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins : Tua can be tough at home, but he has been a bit off-target recently.  That can only help the 49ers, although they have injury problems of their own.  The Dolphins could win this game.  49ERS, 20-17

Sunday night

Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys : The Cowboys had early success, but they are facing tough times now.  They often play well at home in nationally-televised games, but I think the Bucs stop them here.  BUCS, 24-16

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers : The Pack will march over the Saints.  PACK, 30-20

NCAA 2024 Bowl games, part I

 With the first Bowl game underway, let's look at the rest of the first slate of games:

Tuesday Dec 17

Frisco Bowl : #19 Memphis Tigers (10-2) v West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) : This was a strange matchup, and will likely be a one-sided game.  MEMPHIS by 24

Wed Dec 18

Boca Raton Bowl : Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) v James Madison Dukes (8-4) : The Dukes can be a tough team, and the Sun Belt has a great record in bowl games.  JAMES MADISON by 18

LA Bowl : Cal Golden Bears (6-6) v #21 UNLV Running Rebels (10-3) : While this is practically a home game for Cal, UNLV isn't making a long trip, and they have a strong team coming.  UNLV by 17

Thurs Dec 19

New Orleans Bowl : Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) v Sam Houston BearKats (9-3) : It is tough for a newly promoted team to win their first bowl game, but the BearKats have had a phenomenal year, and I think a win here will cap it off.  SAM HOUSTON by eight

Fri Dec 20

Cure Bowl : Ohio Bobcats (10-3) v Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-3) : The Bobcats had a good year, but the MAC teams seem to struggle in bowl games.  JACKSONVILLE STATE by 13

Gasparilla Bowl : Tulane Green Wave (9-4) v Florida Gators (7-5) : Florida has a long history with the bowls, but it has not always been a successful one.  Tulane has a good team that consistently puts pressure on their opponents.  Florida is not so consistent.  TULANE by 16

Mon Dec 23

Myrtle Beach Bowl : Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) v UTSA Roadrunners (6-6) : Both teams had their ups and downs this season, but Coastal tends to do better in high profile games.  COASTAL CAROLINA by ten

Idaho Potato Bowl : Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) v Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6) : The Huskies have the better record, but too often the MAC folds in bowl games.  FRESNO STATE by eight

Tues Dec 24

Hawaii Bowl : South Florida Bulls (6-6) v San Jose State Spartans (7-5) : Traveling to Hawaii, and spending time on the island, can be distracting for some teams.  San Jose State has been here before, so they will be better prepared.  SAN JOSE STATE by nine

Thurs Dec 26

Detroit Bowl : Pitt Panthers (7-5) v Toledo Rockets (7-5) : Pitt doesn't have a great bowl record, and neither do MAC teams.  Have to look at the teams.  Pitt had tougher opposition this year, and held their own.  PITT by eight

Copper/Cactus Bowl : Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v Kansas State Wildcats (8-4) : Let's face it, Rutgers is a bowl novice, while the Wildcats have tons of experience.  It doesn't hurt that the Wildcats will have tons of friendly fans there.  KANSAS STATE by 16

Mobile Alabama Bowl : Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) : The Red Wolves have a great bowl record.  Not so the Falcons.  ARKANSAS STATE by nine

Fri Dec 27

Armed Force Bowl : Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) v #25 Navy Midshipmen (9-3) : Navy shocked American Athletic champ Army, and they did it by wearing down the team used to wearing down others.  The Sooners will wear down quickly.  NAVY by 15

Birmingham Bowl : Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) v Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6) : Vandy rarely gets to a bowl, so I'd love to see them win, but the Yellow Jackets defense will make that tough.  GEORGIA TECH by 13

Liberty Bowl : Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) v Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) : The Razorbacks can be tricky, but the Red Raiders have been playing tricky football for far longer.  Their pounding defense will make things very tough for Arkansas.  TEXAS TECH by 16

Holiday Bowl : Syracuse Orange (9-3) v Washington State Cougars (8-4) : Ooh, this is the first game that I'm having real trouble picking!  These two teams are both good, and match-up very well on paper.  When it comes to bowl games, though, Syracuse doesn't have a good recent history.  WASHINGTON STATE by six

Las Vegas Bowl : USC Trojans (6-6) v Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) : The Aggies gave a hard time to some tough SEC teams.  The Trojans were just off this season.  TEXAS A&M by 12

NCAA 2024 Final Regular Season Top 25 and Playoff First Round picks

 Top 25  [Last week's position]

1.  OREGON DUCKS (13-0) [1]

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) [2]

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) [3]

4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) [4]

5.  Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [5]

6.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) [6]

7.  Texas Longhorns (11-2) [7]

8.  Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) [8]

9.  Boise State Broncos (13-1) [9]

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [10]

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) [11]

12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) [13]

13. SMU Mustangs (11-2) [14]

14. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) [15]

15. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [16]

16. Army Black Knights (11-2) [12]

17. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) [17]

18. BYU Cougars (10-2) [18]

19. Memphis Tigers (10-2) [19]

20. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) [20]

21. UNLV Running Rebels (10-3) [21]

22. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) [22]

23. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [23]

24. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) [24]

25. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) [28]

Dropped off: Missouri Tigers [#25]

College Football Playoffs

First Round

#6 (10th seed) Indiana Hoosiers @ #2 (7th seed) Notre Dame Fighting Irish : Bad seeding for Indiana!  While they had a chance to beat their first round opponent is the ACC or SEC Championships would have ended as expected, those upsets through the seedings into disarray, and pitted them against the highly dominant Irish squad.  While Indiana will be able to keep up better than other teams, they aren't likely to emerge victorious from this.  NOTRE DAME by eight

#14 (11th seed) SMU Mustangs @ #4 (6th seed) Penn State Nittany Lions : SMU struggled against Clemson's defense, and the Nittany Lions are even stiffer!  Don't expect SMU to come back much in the second half as they did against Clemson, either.  PENN STATE by 17

#15 (12th seed) Clemson Tigers @ #7 (5th seed) Texas Longhorns : Georgia's defense held Texas, but the Tigers don't have nearly that good a defense.  Besides, they want to slaughter an opponent to wash away the sting of the SEC Championship loss.  TEXAS by 18

#8 (9th seed) Tennessee Volunteers @ #3 (8th seed) Ohio State Buckeyes : Aside from the game against rival Michigan, the Buckeyes were a dominant opponent.  The Wolverines upset cost them a shot at the Big Ten Championship Game, and a rematch against Oregon, so you know the Buckeyes want a shot at the National Championship Game.  This is the first step.  OHIO STATE by nine

 

NFL 2024 Week 14 Power Rankings and Week 15 picks

 There was some internal movement in the Power Rankings, but the teams mostly remained the same.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (12-1) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) [3]

3.  Philadelphia Eagles (11-2) [4]

4.  Minnesota Vikings (11-2) [5]

5.  Buffalo Bills (10-3) [2]

6.  Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) [7]

7.  Green Bay Packers (9-4) [6]

8.  Denver Broncos (8-5) [9]

9.  Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) [8]

10. Washington Commanders (8-5) [10]

11. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [11]

12. Houston Texans (8-5) [12]

13. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) [13]

14. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-7) [15]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  AFC West [2]

3.  AFC North [3]

4.  NFC West [5]

5.  NFC East [3]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Thursday night

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers : The games between these two often get heated, and are frequently unpredictable.  That said, I have to predict.  Both teams have had their highs and lows this season, and the 49ers have faced challenges with injuries.  However, so many second-string players have stepped up on this team, I think the added incentive of beating their rival Rams will propel them.  49ERS, 13-10

Sunday early games

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants : The Giants are stumbling, so the Ravens will shine.  RAVENS, 27-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans : The Titans have collapsed, while the Bengals have found a second life.  BENGALS, 24-16

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers : Although they do not have the worst record, the Panthers have the worst point difference BY FAR.  COWBOYS, 24-13

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns : A rare thing will happen this season -- the Chiefs will win by more than seven points.  They have mastered close games, but the Browns can't keep up.  CHIEFS, 27-17

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans : The Texans will have their hands full with Tua, but they are a tough squad.  TEXANS, 27-23

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars : There is still some life in the Jets, but they have pretty much alienated their fans and some of their own players.  The Jags have stumbled, especially in the area of clock management, but they will rally around their QB.  JAGS, 17-16

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints : The Commanders are hot, thanks to their fookie quarterback.  Their defense has some holes, so the Saints will advance, but they can't keep pace with Washington.  COMMANDERS, 34-23

Sunday late games

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions : The Lions are hot, and their defense should be just enough to frustrate the Bills.  LIONS, 31-27

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos : The Broncos are a surprise strong team this season.  The Colts have their moments, but moments pass.  BRONCOS, 30-20

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals : Easy win for the Cards, as the Pats have faolded.  CARDINALS, 26-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles : This could be a very competitive game.  It's the Eagles offense against the Steelers defense.  The difference might be how well the Steelers offense plays.  This one could go either way.  EAGLES, 27-23

Tampa Bay Bucs at Los Angeles Chargers : The Bucs can be unpredictable.  If they can find a way to get past the Chargers defense, they might win this game, but I'll have to see if they can do it.  CHARGERS, 23-20

Sunday night

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks : The Seahawks are tough at home, so this will not be an easy victory for the Pack, but I think they will pull it off.  PACK, 26-24

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings : My Bears don't stand a chance.  VIKINGS, 27-13

Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders : The Raiders can be competitive, but they can't finish.  FALCONS, 27-16

NCAA 2024 Championship Week Top 25 and first bowl pick

 It was in interesting Championship weekend!  The first five games were totally one-sided, which was a bit of a surprise.  That's especially true for the Big XII Championship, which was expected to be close.  Then, the SEC Championship began a streak of upsets.  Georgia took advantage of their home field to show Texas that the Big XII Championship is not on the same level of the SEC Championship.  Texas took them to overtime, though, so it was a close and exciting game.  SMU showed their championship inexperience, as it took their offense too long to loose up. They engineered a fabulous fourth quarter.  If the Mustangs had come out of halftime that hot, they would have won that game.  The biggest surprise, though, was the Sun Belt Championship.  Once again, you had the team with the worse record having more championship experience, but they blasted the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns.  The Cajuns never had a chance in that game!

Top 25  [Last week's rank]

1.  OREGON DUCKS (13-0) [1]

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) [2]

3.   Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) [5]

4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) [4]

5.  Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [8]

6.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) [6]

7  Texas Longhorns (11-2) [3]

8.  Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) [7]

9.  Boise State Broncos (13-1) [10]

10. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [11]

11. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) [12]

12. Army Black Knights (11-1) [14]

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) [13]

14. SMU Mustangs (11-2) [9]

15. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) [16]

 16. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [19]

17. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) [17]

18. BYU Cougars (10-2) [20]

19. Memphis Tigers (10-2) [21]

20. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) [23]

21. UNLV Running Rebels (10-3) [15]

22. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) [24]

23. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [25]

24. Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) [18]

25. Missouri Tigers (9-3) [26]

Dropped off: Tulane Green Wave [#22]

On the Edge: Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3), Texas A&M Aggies (8-4), Navy Midshipmen (8-3), Ohio Bobcats (10-3)

There is only one game next, the Army-Navy game.  That might adjust the Top 25, depending upon the results.  I fill feature a revised Top 25 only if needed.  We do have one bowl game before next week's column, and most of the bowls haven't determined their participants, so I cannot do a bowl preview column yet, so I will include this bowl pick in this column:

Veteran's Bowl:  South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Western Michigan Broncos (6-6) : Despite their record, the Broncos are a real threat.  WESTERN MICHIGAN by ten

NFL 2024 Week 13 Power Rankings and Week 14 picks

 Not a tremendous amount of movement in the Power Rankings.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (11-1) [1]

2.  Buffalo Bills (10-2) [2]

3.  Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) [3]

4.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) [4]

5.  Minnesota Vikings (10-2) [5]

6.  Green Bay Packers (9-3) [6]

7.  Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) [8]

8.  Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) [9]

9.  Denver Broncos (8-5) [10]

10. Washington Commanders (8-5) [11]

11. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [7]

12. Houston Texans (8-5) [12]

13. Seattle Seahawks (7-5) [15]

14. Arizona Cardinals (6-6) [13]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  AFC West [2]

3 (tie). AFC North [3]

3 (tie). NFC East [4]

5.  NFC West [4]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Thursday night

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions : The Lions play their second consecutive Thursday facing yet another divisional opponent.  This one could give them some trouble.  Green Bay is capable of upsetting our top team, but I'm not sure it will happen.  LIONS, 31-27

Sunday early games

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings : Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota at an interesting time.  The Vikings have been a bit off the past couple of weeks, and the Falcons are looking to redeem themselves after a couple of mediocre performances.  Cousins knows the Vikings, but he lacks some of the talent he had.  VIKINGS, 24-17

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles : Despite their record, the Panthers are the still the team with the lowest Power Ranking in the league.  The Eagles will roll.  EAGLES, 31-16

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers survied a battle against Baltimore.  The Browns won't give them much trouble.  STEELERS, 20-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans : Without Trevor Lawrence, the Jags offense is stunted.  TITANS, 13-6

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Raiders are missing some spark.  The Bucs have sputtered recently, too, but they have the players to put together a strong enough game plan to win this one.  BUCS, 17-13

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants : Neither team has been performing up to expectations.  The Giants have already given up on one quarterback.  I think it's turned into a player evaluation year for them.  SAINTS, 21-13

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins : Neither NYC team is doing well.  The Giants have canned one quarterback, and there is grumbling about the Jets doing the same.  DOLPHINS, 24-13

Sunday late games

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams : The Bills will roll easily.  BILLS, 34-20

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers : Both teams have offenses that are struggling.  In a defensive contest, I give a nod to the Bears.  BEARS, 17-13

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals : Seattle is a good team, but they are better at home than on the road.  The Cards have had ups and downs this season.  It seems time for an "up".  CARDINALS, 20-17

Sunday night

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs : The Chargers have been doing very well this season, but the Chiefs keep finding ways to win.  No matter who draws a double-team, someone else steps up.  CHIEFS, 24-23

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys : Dallas has been a bit disappointing this year, but the Bengals fold under pressure.  COWBOYS, 20-17

NCAA 2024 Week 14 Top 25 and Conference Championship picks

 This is the final "full" Top 25, as only a handful of these teams will play next week.

Top 25  [Last week's rank]

1.  OREGON DUCKS (12-0) [1] : The only team to finish the regular season unbeaten

2.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) [3]

3.  Texas Longhorns (11-1) [4]

4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) [5] : They advance to the Big Ten Championship

5.  Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) [2]

6.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) [8] : Unbelievably dominant performance this week!

7.  Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) [7]

8.  Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) [6] : Eight overtimes?  Seriously?

9.  SMU Mustangs (11-1) [11]

10. Boise State Broncos (11-1) [10]

11. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [12]

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) [9]

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) [14]

14. Army Black Knights (10-1) [15]

15. UNLV Running Rebels (10-2) [16]

16. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) [19]

17. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) [17]

18. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) [18]

19. Clemson Tigers (9-3) [13]

20. BYU Cougars (10-2) [20]

21. Memphis Tigers (10-2) [24]

22. Tulane Green Wave (9-3) [21]

23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3) [23]

24. Louisville Cardinals (8-4) [26]

25. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) [25]

Dropped off: Texas A&M Aggies [#23]

On the Edge: Missouri Tigers (9-3), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3), Navy Midshipmen (8-3)

Upset Results

Two of our upsets were suffered by the Big Ten, so I'll discuss them in the next section.  In the Big XII, Baylor shocked the surging Kansas Jayhawks, who ended the season with a losing record.  In the ACC, Miami lost their chance at the conference championship game when Syracuse shocked them.

Big Ten Report

The top of the conference had a shake-up as Michigan upset Ohio State, knocking them down to fourth place.  That win also allowed Michigan to finish with a winning conference record, despite a horrendous start to the season.  Penn State rose to second place, putting Indiana at third.  Illinois landed in fifth, and Iowa in sixth.  Michigan and Minnesota are the only other teams to finish with winning conference records.  Purdue failed to win a single conference game, and they had the three largest margins of defeat in conference play.  The biggest shock was Wisconsin, who broke a 22-year consecutive streak of winning records.

Playoff Predictions

Clearly the top two seeds will be the Big Ten champ and the SEC champ.  If Boise State wins the Mountain West, they will capture the third seed.  That leaves the fourth seed for the ACC Champion.  If UNLV upsets Boise State for the Mountain West title and SMU wins the ACC title, then the ACC champ is the third seed,,  If Clemson wins the ACC title, they are the fourth seed, unless the Big XII Championship Game is a one-sided blowout (not likely), which would likely advance their champ to the fourth seed.

Let's assume the top four seeds are the champions of the Big Ten, SEC, Mountain West, and ACC.  Who will host the first games; in other words, who will be the next four teams?  Certainly Notre Dame, Ohio State, and the Big Ten runner-up.  Who joins them?  If Georgia wins the SEC, it will be Texas.  If Texas wins, it should be Indiana.

The final group of four will include Tennessee, the Big XII champ, and the second ACC team.  That team will be Miami if SMU wins the conference, or SMU if Clemson wins.  The third team will be either Georgia (if Texas wins the SEC) or Indiana (if Texas does).

I won't predict seedings, because so much depends on who wins the conference games and by how much.,

Conference Championships

Friday Dec 6

CONFERENCE USA : Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks : This is a rematch of last week's game, where the home field Hilltoppers beat the Gamecocks.  Now they play at Jacksonville, and the Gamecocks get revenge.  JACKSONVILLE STATE by six

AMERICAN ATHLETIC : #22 Tulane Green Wave at #14 Army Black Knights : It is rare that both teams in this conference title game are ranked, but it's been that type of year.  Tulane was beaten by Memphis last week, and beaten up.  I don't think they will be able to stand up to the physical assault that is the Army offense.  Tulane may lead at the half, but Army will prevail.  ARMY by eight

MOUNTAIN WEST : #15 UNLV Running Rebels at #10 Boise State Broncos : On a neutral field, I might think UNLV has a chance, but the Broncos are fierce at home.  UNLV has been excellent, but Boise State has been dominant all season long.  BOISE STATE by 13

Sat Dec 7

BIG XII : #18 Iowa State Cyclones v #16 Arizona State Sun Devils : Arizona State has been a phenomenal team this season, especially given their inexperience.  Iowa State probably has the better team, but they have had a nasty habit this year of making crucial mistakes at the wrong time.  Arizona State has proven highly effective at taking advantage of those situations.  ARIZONA STATE by six

MAC : Ohio Bobcats v Miami Ohio Redhawks : Ohio has played the most consistent ball in the conference this season, and they rarely make mistakes.  That will be important to seal this victory, as the Redhawks have the more dynamic offense.  OHIO by four

SEC : #3 Texas Longhorns at #8 Georgia Bulldogs : Yes, Texas is considered the home team, as they have the better record, but this game is being played in Atlanta.  Yes, it is the Falcons field and not Georgia's, but it still basically a home crowd environment for the Dawgs.  And that will make this game closer, as Texas has certainly played much better than the Bulldogs this season.  Texas will take the early lead, but we've seen how Georgia can engineer some great fourth quarter comebacks at home.  Texas, though, can score quickly, and that last score will be theirs.  TEXAS by three

SUN BELT : Marshall Thundering Herd at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns : Marshall has more experience in conference championship games, but they have had some on-field communication issues this season.  Given the noise that the Cajun home crowd can generate, they will suffer from that in this game.  LOUISIANA by 13

BIG TEN : #4 Penn State Nittany Lions v #1 Oregon Ducks : If Ohio State had beaten Michigan, setting up the rematch, I was prepared to pick Ohio State.  With them out of the game, I don't think any other team in the conference can threaten Oregon for 60 minutes.  OREGON by ten

ACC : #19 Clemson Tigers at #9 SMU Mustangs : The Mustangs have been a strong team this season, and certainly the stronger offense.  However, Clemson has a history of pulling off some amazing plays in conference championships, so they will keep this game close.  SMU should still win, but watch for the upset here.  SMU by four