As long-time followers of my writing know, I do not create a preseason Top 25. Thus, I can't look at games from the top teams. I will predict the performance of my Big Ten teams, as well as games that many people might find interesting.
Thursday, August 29
North Carolina Tar Heels at South Carolina Gamecocks: Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks begin their trek to compete with Alabama for the SEC title. North Carolina is a capable team, but South Carolina has a potent team this year. SOUTH CAROLINA by 16
Indiana State Sycamores at Indiana Hoosiers: It may be a tough year for the Hoosiers, but they get to give their home fans a win to start the season. INDIANA by 17
UNLV Running Rebels at Minnesota Golden Gophers: You know, this game wasn't as easy to pick as you'd think. Both teams have some serious weaknesses, but they also have some capable talent. I pick Minnesota for two reasons: I usually favor the home team in these situations, and Minnesota is used to stiffer competition. MINNESOTA by four
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Fresno State Bulldogs: Fresno State has a well-stocked team this year, although this game may not serve as enough of a challenge to demonstrate that. FRESNO STATE by 14
USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors: Hawaii is often a tough team at home, but their anemic passing game makes them more of a pushover. Hosting USC will do nothing to boost their morale. USC by 20
Friday, August 30
Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans: Michigan State should be a strong team in the Big Ten this year. The MAC has perennial fought the Big Ten hard, but here poor Western Michigan is just outclassed. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
Florida Atlantic Owls at Miami Hurricanes: The battle for Florida bragging rights begins, although it'll be sort of a one-sided battle. MIAMI by 21
Big Ten
Buffalo Bulls at Ohio State Buckeyes: Buffalo gets their butt kicked as Ohio State begins its march to the BCS Championship Game. This may be the first shutout of the season. OHIO STATE by 31
UMass Minutemen at Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers get a easy start to the post-Bielema era. WISCONSIN by 20
Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting Illini: The battle of the Plains Indians-named teams gives a boost to Illinois, who need to start the season well. I don't think they'll start 6-0 like year, but hoping they don't drop their last six like season. ILLINOIS by ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Cincinnati Bearcats: Perhaps the toughest battle of all the Big Ten openers, I have to predict a loss for the Boilermakers. Cincinnati has some good weapons, and they are fresh. Cincy's problem is late in the season, when they fade due to injuries. CINCINNATI by eight
Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan State got the toughest Michigan-based MAC opponent, so Michigan gets an easy warmup. Of course, they could find a way to screw it up (remember Appalachian State?), but I doubt it. MICHIGAN by 17
Syracuse Orange at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is fortunate that Syracuse is down this year, as they need time to get their new defense and quarterback set up. An easy opening opponent gives them field time without risking too much embarrassment. PENN STATE by ten
Northern Illinois Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes: Another loss for the Big Ten, this one goes to the strong team from the MAC. The Huskies are primed for another good year, and knocking off Big Ten opponents is a Huskies trend. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 12
Wyoming Cowboys at Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Huskers get to wrangle Cowboys in their opener. I think it's a sign that the Big Ten recognizes the conference has become weaker, or perhaps other teams want a share of the Big Ten Network's revenues. NEBRASKA by 18
Northwestern Wildcats at California Golden Bears: The Big Ten rarely plays well when they travel to the West Coast, but the well-stocked Wildcats get to tackle a weakened Cal team. Great way to anger Pac-12 fans and set up for an interesting Rose Bowl. NORTHWESTERN by ten
Games of Interest
Toledo Rockets at Florida Gators: Florida may be ranked in the preseason Top Ten, but don't dismiss Toledo's power. Will the Rockets win? Not likely. Will they surprise Florida and keep it close? I think so. FLORIDA by six
Rice Owls at Texas A&M Aggies: It appears the NCAA won't make a ruling about Johnny Manziel before this game kicks off, but expect one before the SEC conference season rolls in. You might think Manziel would decide to make the most of the opportunity, but he's already shown enough poor judgement. This will be a pedestrian effort. A&M by twelve
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys: This game will be closer than Oklahoma State fans would like. The Bulldogs aren't quite as well-stocked as last year, but they are still stronger than people expected when this match-up was scheduled. OKLAHOMA STATE by six
Temple Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish get an easy game for their first post-Manti outing. They'll need it, as they have to restructure from some key personnel losses. NOTRE DAME by 13
Nicholls State Colonels at Oregon Ducks: And now we start getting into the ridiculously one-sided battles scheduled solely to bring extra money to small FCS colleges. OREGON by... lots
Alabama Crimson Tide at Virginia Tech Hokies: In earlier years, this would be a nice match-up. Unfortunately the Hokies aren't quite as talent-laden this season, so this will be pretty one-sided. BAMA by 23
Eastern Washington Eagles at Oregon State Beavers: The Eagles might score a bot on the Beavers, but the Eagles defense will get pulverized. OREGON STATE by 14
Louisiana-Monroe Indians at Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners get an easy start on their trek for a conference title. OKLAHOMA by 21
New Mexico State Aggies at Texas Longhorns: Another easy game for a Big XII title contender. TEXAS by 24
LSU Tigers at TCU Horned Frogs: Ah, now we get to an interesting pairing! LSU is touted as chief competition for Alabama, but I think they took a step back this season. TCU has some punch, and Gary Patterson has added hype to this game by criticizing the discipline and integrity (or, rather, the lack of both) of LSU coach Les Miles. Miles has tried to downplay the hype by back-pedalling, now hedging whether RB Jeremy Hill will play. My thoughts: Miles is more interested in winning than discipline, Hill will play, and LSU will win, albeit in a close game. LSU by four
Boise State Broncos at Washington Huskies: Boise State looks to lead the new expanded Mountain West into a BCS bowl (now that the conference has a guaranteed berth) in the final year of the BCS. They have the tools to do it, and Washington isn't that much of an obstacle. BOISE STATE by 16
Nevada Wolf Pack at UCLA Bruins Nevada is a strong team, so this won't be the stellar start to UCLA's claim to the Pac-12 South title as they hoped. After two years of claiming the title simply because USC was on probation, the Bruins hoped to win it outright this season. Nevada will give them fits, and make "experts" wonder if UCLA is up to the challenge. UCLA by six
Sunday, Sept 1
Ohio Bobcats at Louisville Cardinals: Ohio is a good team, but they're just overmanned and outgunned on this one. The Cardinals are the cream of the new American Athletic conference, and a likely unbeaten team. LOUISVILLE by 13
Monday, Sept 2
Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers: Welcome to the ACC, Pittsburgh! Too bad you have to face one of the best teams in the conference this season. It could have been worse -- you could have gotten Clemson! FLORIDA STATE by 20
GAME OF THE WEEK: Georgia Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers: Speaking of those Clemson Tigers, here they are! We've been privileged to get opening weekend match-ups of preseason Top Ten teams the past couple of years, and they've been spectacular. This one will be more exception. Although the SEC fans are predicting a blowout, given Georgia's massive offense, Clemson is a highly-talented team who can keep pace with Georgia, and whose defense can give the Bulldogs some fits. This will be a real test of Georgia's spring training. If they come out somewhat cold, Clemson could control the game. I think Georgia will win, but they may have to stage a second half comeback. GEORGIA by six
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Monday, August 26, 2013
NCAA 2013 Preview #3 - Going West
The Mountain West picked up some former WAC teams, making them the latest conference to have two divisions. That means seven of the ten conferences have a conference championship.
Pac-12 North
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-1 in conference / 11-1 overall) : They return eight defensive starters from last year, and this was a potent defense last year. QB Kevin Hogan is gaining experience, and he is supported by a strong offensive line, but he has several inexperienced runners and receivers.
2. Oregon Ducks (8-1/11-1) : Key offensive cogs are back from last year, and the new coach is not messing with Chip Kelly's system, so these guys will continue to move fast. The defense is more sack hungry than last year; they'll have to be, as they face some serious quarterbacks.
3. Oregon State Beavers (6-3/9-3) : The Beavers return 17 starters from last year, including two quarterbacks, their best running back, and their second best receiver. The offense is in great shape. The defense is good, although it looks weak when compared to the offense.
4. Washington Huskies (4-5/5-7) : QB Keith Prince returns with a strong corps of receivers. Their best runner from last year returns, but there are holes on the offensive line to fill. Much of the defense returns, but that wasn't a great group last year.
5. California Golden Bears (2-7/3-9) : The Bears lost their top four offensive contributors from last year. The defense is good, but they are rebuilding that squad, too. This team won't be successful until much later in the season.
6. Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9) : The Cougars have a great passing attack, but they have no rushing attack and a very weak defense. Their one-sided attack won't fool defenses for a whole game.
Pac-12 South
1. UCLA Bruins (7-2/9-3) : The Bruins have talent, especially in the passing game. They'll need it, as they lost their best running back. The defense has some holes, and that will hurt, as UCLA is tested by tough road opponents early and often.
2. USC Trojans (7-2/10-3) : Their new quarterback is ably supported by the rest of the offense. Their defense is good, but not as quick as they need to be to combat some of the passing attacks in this conference.
3. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4/6-6) : QB Taylor Kelly has most of his offensive weapons back, although the offensive line has been slightly rebuilt. The defense needs some support, though, so the team could start slowly.
4. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/6-6) : BJ Denker is the new starting QB. He has a good cadre of receivers and a strong backfield. They are supported by a great offensive line. Unfortunately, the defense is porous. Can this team score fast enough and often enough to counter what their opponents will be able to do? Not enough.
5. Utah Utes (2-7/3-9) : The starting quarterback has not yet been picked, so sophomore Travis Wilson is not a lock. The team will be handing over the running game to a new primary back, so if they need to break in a new quarterback, too, this will be a long season.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (2-7/4-8) : QB Jason Webb needs to reduce his frequency of interceptions. He has WR Paul Richardson back, so he has at least one sure-handed target. This team is supposedly joining Oregon in an uptempo attack, which doesn't mesh with the skill level of this team. They just don't read and react that quickly.
Mountain West - Mountain
1. Boise State Broncos (7-1/11-1) : QB Joe Southwick leads a diverse and talented crew of receivers. Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi assumes full-time backfield duties. The quality of the defense fell slightly, but they were a Top Ten defense last year, so a slight fall isn't a major issue. This team is loaded for a strong run.
2. Utah State Aggies (6-2/8-4) : QB Chuckie Keeton leads an offense more terrifying than any I have seen from the Aggies. Unfortunately, that passing attack is all they have, as their offensive line and running game are weak. Their defense is stout, so that one-sided offense may not be a game-ender, but it will make things tougher for them.
3. Wyoming Cowboys (3-5/6-6) : Quite a difference between the top two teams and the rest in this division. QB Brett Smith leads an outstanding passing attack, but that's all Wyoming has.
4. New Mexico Lobos (3-5/6-6) : Unlike the other teams we've examined in this division, the Lobos have a strong running attack. However, that's the limit of their offense. A mediocre defense doesn't help their situation.
5. Colorado State Rams (2-6/3-10) : A thirteen game season will exhaust the Rams, but they have no bowl game to prepare for anyway. QB Garrett Grayson is injury-prone, so someone else will be under center for at least three of those 13 games. That's bad, as backup Conner Smith throws too many interceptions. The defense has holes on the corners, so opponents can run past them.
6. Air Force Falcons (0-8/1-11) : This is an unusual position for the Falcons, but they have almost nothing going for them. They lost most of their offensive performers from last season, and their defense wasn't good to start with. This is definitely a rebuilding year.
Mountain West - West
1. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/11-1) : QB Derek Carr leads a powerful passing attack. That's good, since the backfield needs help after they lost their best runner. Their defense is stout, so they have time to break in a new runner.
2. San Jose State Spartans (7-1/10-2) : QB David Fales leads a potent passing attach, but they have few runners and a weak offensive line. A strong defense keeps them going, though.
3. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2/8-4) : QB Cody Fajado spreads his passes among many targets, so it's hard to know what he'll do with the ball. A fast backfield and strong line round out this powerful offense. Unfortunately, a weak defense leaves them vulnerable to other strong offenses.
4. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5/5-7) : The Aztecs have a great running attack and a sturdy defense, but poor special teams and terrible passing attack limits their effectiveness.
5. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6/2-10) : QB Nick Sherry throws too many interceptions. The Rebels defense isn't nearly as good at causing turnovers, so the Rebels will be trailing in turnover difference and possession time in most games.
6. Hawaii Warriors (2-6/2-10) : QB Sean Schroeder must reduce his interception percentage, since this team has practically no rushing attack. That's intentional -- the Warriors are not a pass-first offense, they are a pass-ONLY offense. They don't have a defense to speak of, so things look dim.
Independents
While the dissolution of the WAC, we gained some independents. Old Dominion also stepped up from FCS; however, since they play FCS opponents in more than half of their games, I won't count them in this year's preview.
1. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) : This run-oriented offense frequently has a poor passing attack, but this year's squad, like last year's, has a practically non-existent one. A decent defense and a favorable schedule contribute to the Midshipmen's success.
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) : The Irish won't get a chance to redeem themselves in a National Championship Game, at least not for a couple of years. QB Tommy Rees assumes full-time QB duties, but his passing efficiency isn't great and he has little rush support. The defense will also feel the loss of Mante Teo, as was shown by Alabama in January when they held his effectiveness at bay.
3. Army Black Knights (7-5) : A rare good season for the Knights. They have one of the worst passing attacks in the country, but also one of the best running attacks. A poor defense makes it tough for them, but they can wear down weaker teams.
4. BYU Cougars (6-6) : The Cougars are breaking in a new quarterback, who will be leaning heavily on senior WR Cody Hoffman. They have a decent offensive backfield but a restructured offensive line may limit running holes. They do have a strong defense, which will torment opponents.
5. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) : Their quarterback transferred to Eastern Illinois, their running back graduated, and their best receiver is on probation. Can their defense save them? Not for much of the season, as they have to replace too many positions.
6. Idaho Vandals (3-9) : The Vandals' new quarterback will take some time to get used to the system, especially since he can't rely on a running game to bail him out.
Pac-12 North
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-1 in conference / 11-1 overall) : They return eight defensive starters from last year, and this was a potent defense last year. QB Kevin Hogan is gaining experience, and he is supported by a strong offensive line, but he has several inexperienced runners and receivers.
2. Oregon Ducks (8-1/11-1) : Key offensive cogs are back from last year, and the new coach is not messing with Chip Kelly's system, so these guys will continue to move fast. The defense is more sack hungry than last year; they'll have to be, as they face some serious quarterbacks.
3. Oregon State Beavers (6-3/9-3) : The Beavers return 17 starters from last year, including two quarterbacks, their best running back, and their second best receiver. The offense is in great shape. The defense is good, although it looks weak when compared to the offense.
4. Washington Huskies (4-5/5-7) : QB Keith Prince returns with a strong corps of receivers. Their best runner from last year returns, but there are holes on the offensive line to fill. Much of the defense returns, but that wasn't a great group last year.
5. California Golden Bears (2-7/3-9) : The Bears lost their top four offensive contributors from last year. The defense is good, but they are rebuilding that squad, too. This team won't be successful until much later in the season.
6. Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9) : The Cougars have a great passing attack, but they have no rushing attack and a very weak defense. Their one-sided attack won't fool defenses for a whole game.
Pac-12 South
1. UCLA Bruins (7-2/9-3) : The Bruins have talent, especially in the passing game. They'll need it, as they lost their best running back. The defense has some holes, and that will hurt, as UCLA is tested by tough road opponents early and often.
2. USC Trojans (7-2/10-3) : Their new quarterback is ably supported by the rest of the offense. Their defense is good, but not as quick as they need to be to combat some of the passing attacks in this conference.
3. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-4/6-6) : QB Taylor Kelly has most of his offensive weapons back, although the offensive line has been slightly rebuilt. The defense needs some support, though, so the team could start slowly.
4. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/6-6) : BJ Denker is the new starting QB. He has a good cadre of receivers and a strong backfield. They are supported by a great offensive line. Unfortunately, the defense is porous. Can this team score fast enough and often enough to counter what their opponents will be able to do? Not enough.
5. Utah Utes (2-7/3-9) : The starting quarterback has not yet been picked, so sophomore Travis Wilson is not a lock. The team will be handing over the running game to a new primary back, so if they need to break in a new quarterback, too, this will be a long season.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (2-7/4-8) : QB Jason Webb needs to reduce his frequency of interceptions. He has WR Paul Richardson back, so he has at least one sure-handed target. This team is supposedly joining Oregon in an uptempo attack, which doesn't mesh with the skill level of this team. They just don't read and react that quickly.
Mountain West - Mountain
1. Boise State Broncos (7-1/11-1) : QB Joe Southwick leads a diverse and talented crew of receivers. Sophomore RB Jay Ajayi assumes full-time backfield duties. The quality of the defense fell slightly, but they were a Top Ten defense last year, so a slight fall isn't a major issue. This team is loaded for a strong run.
2. Utah State Aggies (6-2/8-4) : QB Chuckie Keeton leads an offense more terrifying than any I have seen from the Aggies. Unfortunately, that passing attack is all they have, as their offensive line and running game are weak. Their defense is stout, so that one-sided offense may not be a game-ender, but it will make things tougher for them.
3. Wyoming Cowboys (3-5/6-6) : Quite a difference between the top two teams and the rest in this division. QB Brett Smith leads an outstanding passing attack, but that's all Wyoming has.
4. New Mexico Lobos (3-5/6-6) : Unlike the other teams we've examined in this division, the Lobos have a strong running attack. However, that's the limit of their offense. A mediocre defense doesn't help their situation.
5. Colorado State Rams (2-6/3-10) : A thirteen game season will exhaust the Rams, but they have no bowl game to prepare for anyway. QB Garrett Grayson is injury-prone, so someone else will be under center for at least three of those 13 games. That's bad, as backup Conner Smith throws too many interceptions. The defense has holes on the corners, so opponents can run past them.
6. Air Force Falcons (0-8/1-11) : This is an unusual position for the Falcons, but they have almost nothing going for them. They lost most of their offensive performers from last season, and their defense wasn't good to start with. This is definitely a rebuilding year.
Mountain West - West
1. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/11-1) : QB Derek Carr leads a powerful passing attack. That's good, since the backfield needs help after they lost their best runner. Their defense is stout, so they have time to break in a new runner.
2. San Jose State Spartans (7-1/10-2) : QB David Fales leads a potent passing attach, but they have few runners and a weak offensive line. A strong defense keeps them going, though.
3. Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2/8-4) : QB Cody Fajado spreads his passes among many targets, so it's hard to know what he'll do with the ball. A fast backfield and strong line round out this powerful offense. Unfortunately, a weak defense leaves them vulnerable to other strong offenses.
4. San Diego State Aztecs (3-5/5-7) : The Aztecs have a great running attack and a sturdy defense, but poor special teams and terrible passing attack limits their effectiveness.
5. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6/2-10) : QB Nick Sherry throws too many interceptions. The Rebels defense isn't nearly as good at causing turnovers, so the Rebels will be trailing in turnover difference and possession time in most games.
6. Hawaii Warriors (2-6/2-10) : QB Sean Schroeder must reduce his interception percentage, since this team has practically no rushing attack. That's intentional -- the Warriors are not a pass-first offense, they are a pass-ONLY offense. They don't have a defense to speak of, so things look dim.
Independents
While the dissolution of the WAC, we gained some independents. Old Dominion also stepped up from FCS; however, since they play FCS opponents in more than half of their games, I won't count them in this year's preview.
1. Navy Midshipmen (9-3) : This run-oriented offense frequently has a poor passing attack, but this year's squad, like last year's, has a practically non-existent one. A decent defense and a favorable schedule contribute to the Midshipmen's success.
2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) : The Irish won't get a chance to redeem themselves in a National Championship Game, at least not for a couple of years. QB Tommy Rees assumes full-time QB duties, but his passing efficiency isn't great and he has little rush support. The defense will also feel the loss of Mante Teo, as was shown by Alabama in January when they held his effectiveness at bay.
3. Army Black Knights (7-5) : A rare good season for the Knights. They have one of the worst passing attacks in the country, but also one of the best running attacks. A poor defense makes it tough for them, but they can wear down weaker teams.
4. BYU Cougars (6-6) : The Cougars are breaking in a new quarterback, who will be leaning heavily on senior WR Cody Hoffman. They have a decent offensive backfield but a restructured offensive line may limit running holes. They do have a strong defense, which will torment opponents.
5. New Mexico State Aggies (3-9) : Their quarterback transferred to Eastern Illinois, their running back graduated, and their best receiver is on probation. Can their defense save them? Not for much of the season, as they have to replace too many positions.
6. Idaho Vandals (3-9) : The Vandals' new quarterback will take some time to get used to the system, especially since he can't rely on a running game to bail him out.
Sunday, August 25, 2013
NCAA 2013 Preview Part II - Football Beats in the Heartland
There were more teams to analyze in this region than any other, thanks to Conference USA picking up teams from the WAC and Sun Belt. When the Big Ten expands next year, there will be even more. We'll start with my home conference - the Big Ten
Big Ten Leaders
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0 conference / 12-0 overall) : The likely team to face Alabama in the National Championship Game, the Buckeyes get to amass their second consecutive unbeaten season. Urban Meyer may have had a revelation last season -- he can still win even if he doesn't get so excited. Since the team was on probation, he was more relaxed, and the Buckeyes still soared in his rookie season. They need to replace some defensive players, but the Buckeyes always have a large slate of those. They get their toughest opponents at home until they have to travel to the Big House to close the season against Michigan.
2. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/10-2) : The offense still misses Russell Wilson, and now they are missing ex-Coach Bielema and Monte Ball. This team always has a slate of talented running backs, so Ball can be replaced. Replacing some key defensive losses will be tougher. Still, except for a trip to Columbus, they play their toughest foes at home.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-4/8-4) : Linebacker U is always well-stocked on defense, but the loss of QB Matt McGloin leaves them listless. They played with a lot of heart last season, as those players who remained had something to prove. Without that incentive, this year will be more pedestrian.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6/5-7) : QB Nathan Scheelhaase must step up this season, or Ryan O'Toole will find himself permanently behind center. O'Toole has talent, but he isn't given enough time to develop. He might get it this year. A poor running game puts all the pressure on the quarterback and receivers, so they need a reliable field general. The defense looks a little better this season, but the offense needs to help them by not turning the ball over so much.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) : Junior QB Cameron Coffman has a strong arm and a deep threat in WR Cody Latimer. The Hoosiers don't have much of a running game, so the offensive line has to protect Coffman better. Speaking of better, the defense has improved, but they sucked last season, so it wouldn't take much improvement.
6. Purdue Boilermakers (0-8/1-11) : This team has TWO good quarterbacks, but a limited number of speedy and reliable receivers. With a weak running game and fractured offensive line, Purdue will struggle to score. The defense is better, but turnovers and defensive scores are not their forte.
Big Ten Legends
1. Michigan State Spartans (7-1/11-1) QB Andrew Maxwell returns with a strong slate of receivers, but the departure of RB Le'Veon Bell leaves a weak backfield. They return a strong defense which is focused on causing turnovers, as they already allow one of the lowest yards-per-down averages.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2/10-2) : The Huskers have a great early schedule. They should be unbeaten when they meet Northwestern. That streak may give them confidence that they'll need, as QB Taylor Martinez needs better weapons to help him in the passing game. They do have a strong offensive line and a great backfield, and an improved defense makes them a threat in the division.
3. Michigan Wolverines (4-4/8-4) : Devin Gardner is very capable of replacing Denard Robinson, so the passing game may not lose much. Gardner isn't quite as mobile as Robinson, and by starting freshman RB Derrick Green, this team will have to rely on the passing game. The defense has lost some power, too, which hurts them.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) : An improved passing game gives the Wildcats more offensive balance, and they have the best special teams unit in the conference. The defense is fast, but they tire -- they've given up entirely too many fourth quarter big plays. They have a challenging opener against Cal, and a tough start to their conference schedule. Early losses may shatter their confidence.
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-6/4-8) : Their focus is on shifting defensive players and positions to try to play to their strengths, but I don't think they have enough defensive strength. Donnell Kirkwood leads a strong running attack, but the passing game is abysmal. Ohio State played many years with only a running game, but their defense made up for it. Minnesota doesn't have the defensive strength to do it.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-7/3-9) : They have to replace workhorse QB James Vandenberg, who was also a large part of the running attack. Without another significant runner, this offense is pathetic. Since they have perhaps the toughest conference schedule of anyone, it will be a long year.
Big XII
1. Texas Longhorns (8-1/11-1) : QB David Ash needs to improve his consistency. Case McCoy is a capable backup, but he isn't good enough to start. Fortunately, the team returns 19 starters, so Ash has lots of help.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/9-3) : The coaching staff is very high on starting Trevor Knight at quarterback. I'm not so sure. Knight has little experience, and he doesn't really have a large corps of receivers to support him. The offensive backfield is good, but the O line had trouble protecting Landry Jones -- how will they do for Knight? A patchwork defense filled with sophomores means it will take time for that squad to gel, making the start of their season difficult.
3. TCU Horned Frogs (7-2/9-3) : Gary Patterson has already created hype for his opener against LSU. Patterson may need to find things to say about his opponents, as it may be a while until he can tout his own team. Sophomore QB Trevone Boykin is good, but he needs to improve his accuracy. A weak running game means his efficiency is crucial. At least the defense can be hailed, as they return nine starters from last year.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3/9-3) : They lost RB Joseph Randle, so the passing game has become crucial. The defense make some improvements, but they face plenty of playing time if the one-sided offense cannot keep the ball moving.
5. Kansas State Wildcats (5-4/8-4) : The scheduling gods frowned on the Wildcats. They host all of their non-conference games, so they have to face some tough opponents on the road. They are a talented team, but they still rely too much on emotional and momentum, which will be hard to establish with this schedule.
6. Baylor Bears (4-5/7-5) : New quarterback Bryce Petty has targets, protection from his offensive line, and runners in his backfield, but he has little experience. Baylor likes to move the ball quickly, and Petty doesn't have the experience to make quick decisions. He'll spend this year learning the system.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6/6-6) : The Raiders lost QB Set Doege, who passed for more than 4000 yards last season. There are plenty of receivers for his replacement, but a weak backfield puts a lot of pressure on the passing game. With a weak defense, they need to outscore opponents, and that won't be easy.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-7/5-7) : The Mountaineers didn't have a great rookie season in the Big XII, and they won't follow it up with a good season, either. The loss of Geno Smith hurts their offense greatly. They have decent runners, but this is a pass-oriented offense, and they lack punch there.
9. Iowas State Cyclones (1-8/3-9) : They have a new quarterback, a rebuilt offensive line, and a weak running game. Their defense is good, but they lack the ability to put many points on the board.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10) : RB James Sims returns for his senior year, but he's basically the only stable offense the team has. The defense is slightly improved, but they were 112th last year, so a slight improvement doesn't mean much.
MAC East
1. Bowling Green Falcons (7-1/10-2) : Senior QB Matt Schitz needs to throw fewer interceptions, but that's the only mark against this offense. The defense is down slightly from last year, but they are still a tough squad.
2. Ohio Bobcats (7-1/10-2) : QB Tyler Tettleton needs to step up his performance this season, and he has the tools to do that. With workhorse RB Beau Blankenship and a stiff defense, this is a tough team that will compete for the division and conference title.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/5-7) : Spencer Keith wasn't a great quarterback, and now he's gone. That leaves the Flashes with an anemic passing game. A strong offensive backfield and strong line will keep the offense moving, albeit slowly. A stiff defense will keep them in close games.
4. Akron Zips (3-5/4-8) : The Zips are breaking in a new quarterback, and they are doing it without 2012 top receiver Matt Suel. They have a good backfield, but a weak offensive line makes it hard to create holes for them. Combine that with a poor defense, and this will be a long year.
5. Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8) : The Bulls have to open against Ohio State. Who scheduled THAT debacle? The team swaps between two quarterbacks, but neither achieve more than 50% passing efficiency. With a weak offensive backfield and a patchwork defense, this won't be a stellar year for the Bulls.
6. Miami Ohio Redhawks (2-6/2-10) Let's see... the quarterback graduated, the top receiver transferred, and their projected top running back injured himself in spring training. This offense is in shambles! The defense is okay, but they aren't good at scoring, so the Redhawks will struggle.
7. UMass Minutemen (0-8/1-11) : Ever get the feeling that UMass is regretting moving up to FBS? They competed in the Colonial Athletic/Atlantic 10, but suffer in the stiffer competition of FBS. Sophomore QB Mike Wegzyn is good, but he has a nasty habit of throwing to the opponents. They lost their two best receivers from last year, and have a slow defense, so they are unlikely to beat a single FBS opponent.
MAC West
1. Ball State Cardinals (7-1/11-1) : Senior QB Keith Wenning is expected to have an excellent year. He has plenty of speedy and talented receivers, a strong backfield, and a stiff offensive line to protect him. This is a dangerous offense! The defense isn't quite as strong, but they aren't pushovers, either! This could be their best chance to win the cofnerence.
2. Toledo Rockets (7-1/9-3) : QB Terrance Owens leads a well-stocked offense. The defensive line is stout, but the secondary needs work.
3. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-2/10-2) : Senior QB Jordan Lynch faces a new coach, but the same offensive scheme. Hopefully the new coach will keep Lynch in the pocket more; he was the leading rusher last year, too. Unfortunately, since Lynch's favorite target departed, he may run more than he should.
4. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5) : With the departure of Alex Carder, Tyler van Tubbegen assumes the quarterback duties full-time. That means he needs to reduce his interception frequency, or this team's defense will see too much duty.
5. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5/4-8) : A new quarterback means more pressure on RB Zurlon Tipton. With a weak defense, this team will scrap for every score.
6. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-8/1-11) : The team needs more production from junior QB Tyler Benz. They have good runners in the backfield, but a restructured offensive line may limit their production. A poor defense makes things worse.
Conference USA - East
1. East Carolina Pirates (7-1/10-2) : CAn QB Shane Carden improve on an impressive 2012? He may not have to. With WR Justin Hardy and RB Vintavious Cooper, this traditional defensive powerhouse has a killer offense.
2. UAB Blazers (6-2/8-4) : This team has a potent passing game, but the running game is a bit one-sided. They need to give Bashr Coles more reps and spell Darrin Reaves, as Reaves' yards per carry drops later in the game. This team has a porous defense, so they need to pile on the points.
3. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3/7-5) : Watch out for QB Rakeem Cato. He led the best passing attack in the country last year, and he might do that again. The offensive backfield looks better, but the defense still sucks, which prevents this team from reaching the next level.
4. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : QB Logan Kilgore has a talented slate of receivers, a strong offensive line, and fast runners. The team's biggest problem? The defensive side of the ball.
5. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/4-8) : This strong Sun Belt team will discover the difference in competitiveness in this conference. QB Jake Medlock had a shockingly successful freshman season last year, but he won't do so well against these defenses. He'll need more help from the running back corps. This defense is also not an par with the better teams in Conference USA.
6. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-7/2-10) : Both the offense and defense will be improved this season, but the team was so bad last year, they can only improve.
7. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-9/0-12) : The Owls are breaking in a new quarterback with a weak backfield and a restructured defensive line. This team has no positives, which makes them the only team that I figure will go winless.
Conference USA West
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-0/10-2) : Senior QB Cody Green is expected to have his best year yet. Accompanied by a strong backfield and stingy defense, the entire Tulsa team can count on having a great year.
2. North Texas Mean Green (5-3/6-6) : QB Derek Thompson throws a lot, but too many of those passes end up in the opponents' hands. The Green have a good corps of runners, but they prefer to pass first, when works great for opposing defenses. Their own defense is improving, but they aren't great in takeaways.
3. UTSA Roadrunners (5-3/5-7) : QB Erik Sota is very good at spreading his passes around, which helps confuse opposing defenses. Their running game looks to improve this season, as should their defense; both of which gives them a boost.
4. Rice Owls (4-4/4-8) : QB Taylor McHargue is suffering from too many sacks. If the offensive line doesn't protect him better, nor open holes for the running backs, then his offense may need to bring in another quarterback, and they really don't have a decent back-up.
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/6-6) : The Bulldogs lost five offensive starters from last season, so they have plenty of rebuilding to do. The offensive backfield remains intact, but they rely on an iffy offensive line to open holes for them.
6. Tulane Green Wave (2-6/4-8) : The offense is under construction this season, combining a new quarterback with a weak offensive line and a limited offensive backfield. Couple that with a poor defense, and the Green Wave have a tough year ahead of them.
7. UTEP Miners (1-7/1-11) : A year's experience under their belt will benefit this young team, but they still have a long way to go to improve.
There were more teams to analyze in this region than any other, thanks to Conference USA picking up teams from the WAC and Sun Belt. When the Big Ten expands next year, there will be even more. We'll start with my home conference - the Big Ten
Big Ten Leaders
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0 conference / 12-0 overall) : The likely team to face Alabama in the National Championship Game, the Buckeyes get to amass their second consecutive unbeaten season. Urban Meyer may have had a revelation last season -- he can still win even if he doesn't get so excited. Since the team was on probation, he was more relaxed, and the Buckeyes still soared in his rookie season. They need to replace some defensive players, but the Buckeyes always have a large slate of those. They get their toughest opponents at home until they have to travel to the Big House to close the season against Michigan.
2. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/10-2) : The offense still misses Russell Wilson, and now they are missing ex-Coach Bielema and Monte Ball. This team always has a slate of talented running backs, so Ball can be replaced. Replacing some key defensive losses will be tougher. Still, except for a trip to Columbus, they play their toughest foes at home.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-4/8-4) : Linebacker U is always well-stocked on defense, but the loss of QB Matt McGloin leaves them listless. They played with a lot of heart last season, as those players who remained had something to prove. Without that incentive, this year will be more pedestrian.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6/5-7) : QB Nathan Scheelhaase must step up this season, or Ryan O'Toole will find himself permanently behind center. O'Toole has talent, but he isn't given enough time to develop. He might get it this year. A poor running game puts all the pressure on the quarterback and receivers, so they need a reliable field general. The defense looks a little better this season, but the offense needs to help them by not turning the ball over so much.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-6/4-8) : Junior QB Cameron Coffman has a strong arm and a deep threat in WR Cody Latimer. The Hoosiers don't have much of a running game, so the offensive line has to protect Coffman better. Speaking of better, the defense has improved, but they sucked last season, so it wouldn't take much improvement.
6. Purdue Boilermakers (0-8/1-11) : This team has TWO good quarterbacks, but a limited number of speedy and reliable receivers. With a weak running game and fractured offensive line, Purdue will struggle to score. The defense is better, but turnovers and defensive scores are not their forte.
Big Ten Legends
1. Michigan State Spartans (7-1/11-1) QB Andrew Maxwell returns with a strong slate of receivers, but the departure of RB Le'Veon Bell leaves a weak backfield. They return a strong defense which is focused on causing turnovers, as they already allow one of the lowest yards-per-down averages.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2/10-2) : The Huskers have a great early schedule. They should be unbeaten when they meet Northwestern. That streak may give them confidence that they'll need, as QB Taylor Martinez needs better weapons to help him in the passing game. They do have a strong offensive line and a great backfield, and an improved defense makes them a threat in the division.
3. Michigan Wolverines (4-4/8-4) : Devin Gardner is very capable of replacing Denard Robinson, so the passing game may not lose much. Gardner isn't quite as mobile as Robinson, and by starting freshman RB Derrick Green, this team will have to rely on the passing game. The defense has lost some power, too, which hurts them.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4/7-5) : An improved passing game gives the Wildcats more offensive balance, and they have the best special teams unit in the conference. The defense is fast, but they tire -- they've given up entirely too many fourth quarter big plays. They have a challenging opener against Cal, and a tough start to their conference schedule. Early losses may shatter their confidence.
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-6/4-8) : Their focus is on shifting defensive players and positions to try to play to their strengths, but I don't think they have enough defensive strength. Donnell Kirkwood leads a strong running attack, but the passing game is abysmal. Ohio State played many years with only a running game, but their defense made up for it. Minnesota doesn't have the defensive strength to do it.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-7/3-9) : They have to replace workhorse QB James Vandenberg, who was also a large part of the running attack. Without another significant runner, this offense is pathetic. Since they have perhaps the toughest conference schedule of anyone, it will be a long year.
Big XII
1. Texas Longhorns (8-1/11-1) : QB David Ash needs to improve his consistency. Case McCoy is a capable backup, but he isn't good enough to start. Fortunately, the team returns 19 starters, so Ash has lots of help.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/9-3) : The coaching staff is very high on starting Trevor Knight at quarterback. I'm not so sure. Knight has little experience, and he doesn't really have a large corps of receivers to support him. The offensive backfield is good, but the O line had trouble protecting Landry Jones -- how will they do for Knight? A patchwork defense filled with sophomores means it will take time for that squad to gel, making the start of their season difficult.
3. TCU Horned Frogs (7-2/9-3) : Gary Patterson has already created hype for his opener against LSU. Patterson may need to find things to say about his opponents, as it may be a while until he can tout his own team. Sophomore QB Trevone Boykin is good, but he needs to improve his accuracy. A weak running game means his efficiency is crucial. At least the defense can be hailed, as they return nine starters from last year.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3/9-3) : They lost RB Joseph Randle, so the passing game has become crucial. The defense make some improvements, but they face plenty of playing time if the one-sided offense cannot keep the ball moving.
5. Kansas State Wildcats (5-4/8-4) : The scheduling gods frowned on the Wildcats. They host all of their non-conference games, so they have to face some tough opponents on the road. They are a talented team, but they still rely too much on emotional and momentum, which will be hard to establish with this schedule.
6. Baylor Bears (4-5/7-5) : New quarterback Bryce Petty has targets, protection from his offensive line, and runners in his backfield, but he has little experience. Baylor likes to move the ball quickly, and Petty doesn't have the experience to make quick decisions. He'll spend this year learning the system.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-6/6-6) : The Raiders lost QB Set Doege, who passed for more than 4000 yards last season. There are plenty of receivers for his replacement, but a weak backfield puts a lot of pressure on the passing game. With a weak defense, they need to outscore opponents, and that won't be easy.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-7/5-7) : The Mountaineers didn't have a great rookie season in the Big XII, and they won't follow it up with a good season, either. The loss of Geno Smith hurts their offense greatly. They have decent runners, but this is a pass-oriented offense, and they lack punch there.
9. Iowas State Cyclones (1-8/3-9) : They have a new quarterback, a rebuilt offensive line, and a weak running game. Their defense is good, but they lack the ability to put many points on the board.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10) : RB James Sims returns for his senior year, but he's basically the only stable offense the team has. The defense is slightly improved, but they were 112th last year, so a slight improvement doesn't mean much.
MAC East
1. Bowling Green Falcons (7-1/10-2) : Senior QB Matt Schitz needs to throw fewer interceptions, but that's the only mark against this offense. The defense is down slightly from last year, but they are still a tough squad.
2. Ohio Bobcats (7-1/10-2) : QB Tyler Tettleton needs to step up his performance this season, and he has the tools to do that. With workhorse RB Beau Blankenship and a stiff defense, this is a tough team that will compete for the division and conference title.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/5-7) : Spencer Keith wasn't a great quarterback, and now he's gone. That leaves the Flashes with an anemic passing game. A strong offensive backfield and strong line will keep the offense moving, albeit slowly. A stiff defense will keep them in close games.
4. Akron Zips (3-5/4-8) : The Zips are breaking in a new quarterback, and they are doing it without 2012 top receiver Matt Suel. They have a good backfield, but a weak offensive line makes it hard to create holes for them. Combine that with a poor defense, and this will be a long year.
5. Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8) : The Bulls have to open against Ohio State. Who scheduled THAT debacle? The team swaps between two quarterbacks, but neither achieve more than 50% passing efficiency. With a weak offensive backfield and a patchwork defense, this won't be a stellar year for the Bulls.
6. Miami Ohio Redhawks (2-6/2-10) Let's see... the quarterback graduated, the top receiver transferred, and their projected top running back injured himself in spring training. This offense is in shambles! The defense is okay, but they aren't good at scoring, so the Redhawks will struggle.
7. UMass Minutemen (0-8/1-11) : Ever get the feeling that UMass is regretting moving up to FBS? They competed in the Colonial Athletic/Atlantic 10, but suffer in the stiffer competition of FBS. Sophomore QB Mike Wegzyn is good, but he has a nasty habit of throwing to the opponents. They lost their two best receivers from last year, and have a slow defense, so they are unlikely to beat a single FBS opponent.
MAC West
1. Ball State Cardinals (7-1/11-1) : Senior QB Keith Wenning is expected to have an excellent year. He has plenty of speedy and talented receivers, a strong backfield, and a stiff offensive line to protect him. This is a dangerous offense! The defense isn't quite as strong, but they aren't pushovers, either! This could be their best chance to win the cofnerence.
2. Toledo Rockets (7-1/9-3) : QB Terrance Owens leads a well-stocked offense. The defensive line is stout, but the secondary needs work.
3. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-2/10-2) : Senior QB Jordan Lynch faces a new coach, but the same offensive scheme. Hopefully the new coach will keep Lynch in the pocket more; he was the leading rusher last year, too. Unfortunately, since Lynch's favorite target departed, he may run more than he should.
4. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5) : With the departure of Alex Carder, Tyler van Tubbegen assumes the quarterback duties full-time. That means he needs to reduce his interception frequency, or this team's defense will see too much duty.
5. Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5/4-8) : A new quarterback means more pressure on RB Zurlon Tipton. With a weak defense, this team will scrap for every score.
6. Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-8/1-11) : The team needs more production from junior QB Tyler Benz. They have good runners in the backfield, but a restructured offensive line may limit their production. A poor defense makes things worse.
Conference USA - East
1. East Carolina Pirates (7-1/10-2) : CAn QB Shane Carden improve on an impressive 2012? He may not have to. With WR Justin Hardy and RB Vintavious Cooper, this traditional defensive powerhouse has a killer offense.
2. UAB Blazers (6-2/8-4) : This team has a potent passing game, but the running game is a bit one-sided. They need to give Bashr Coles more reps and spell Darrin Reaves, as Reaves' yards per carry drops later in the game. This team has a porous defense, so they need to pile on the points.
3. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3/7-5) : Watch out for QB Rakeem Cato. He led the best passing attack in the country last year, and he might do that again. The offensive backfield looks better, but the defense still sucks, which prevents this team from reaching the next level.
4. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-3/6-6) : QB Logan Kilgore has a talented slate of receivers, a strong offensive line, and fast runners. The team's biggest problem? The defensive side of the ball.
5. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5/4-8) : This strong Sun Belt team will discover the difference in competitiveness in this conference. QB Jake Medlock had a shockingly successful freshman season last year, but he won't do so well against these defenses. He'll need more help from the running back corps. This defense is also not an par with the better teams in Conference USA.
6. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-7/2-10) : Both the offense and defense will be improved this season, but the team was so bad last year, they can only improve.
7. Florida Atlantic Owls (0-9/0-12) : The Owls are breaking in a new quarterback with a weak backfield and a restructured defensive line. This team has no positives, which makes them the only team that I figure will go winless.
Conference USA West
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-0/10-2) : Senior QB Cody Green is expected to have his best year yet. Accompanied by a strong backfield and stingy defense, the entire Tulsa team can count on having a great year.
2. North Texas Mean Green (5-3/6-6) : QB Derek Thompson throws a lot, but too many of those passes end up in the opponents' hands. The Green have a good corps of runners, but they prefer to pass first, when works great for opposing defenses. Their own defense is improving, but they aren't great in takeaways.
3. UTSA Roadrunners (5-3/5-7) : QB Erik Sota is very good at spreading his passes around, which helps confuse opposing defenses. Their running game looks to improve this season, as should their defense; both of which gives them a boost.
4. Rice Owls (4-4/4-8) : QB Taylor McHargue is suffering from too many sacks. If the offensive line doesn't protect him better, nor open holes for the running backs, then his offense may need to bring in another quarterback, and they really don't have a decent back-up.
5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/6-6) : The Bulldogs lost five offensive starters from last season, so they have plenty of rebuilding to do. The offensive backfield remains intact, but they rely on an iffy offensive line to open holes for them.
6. Tulane Green Wave (2-6/4-8) : The offense is under construction this season, combining a new quarterback with a weak offensive line and a limited offensive backfield. Couple that with a poor defense, and the Green Wave have a tough year ahead of them.
7. UTEP Miners (1-7/1-11) : A year's experience under their belt will benefit this young team, but they still have a long way to go to improve.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
NCAA 2013 Preview #1 - Changes in the East
Some fascinating changes occurred in the off-season. The Big East and the WAC dissolved. Some teams from the Big East, along with some from the MAC and Conference USA, formed the American Athletic Conference. That conference will change next year, as some of those teams are already scheduled to move to new conferences in 2014, when the fabled 14- to 16-team "superconferences" will start to emerge. The Sun Belt lost its Florida teams (now making the title of the conference as irrelevant as the Big Ten's or Big XII's), as they migrated to Conference USA to replace their departed teams.
As usual, I will break my NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision previews into three regional columns, although there will be less to discuss when I get to the West. We are down to ten conferences, with the potential to fall to eight by 2016.
SEC East
1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1 in conf / 11-1 overall): This team has the most potent overall offense in the conference, and that includes Texas A&M. They lost some key defenders, especially in their secondary and linebacking corps, but they get to host their toughest opponents. Unfortunately they face South Carolina too early, before the new defenders can gel. That game will prevent a perfect season for the Bulldogs.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1/10-2) : With a healthy Clowney on defense, this team is a dangerous threat. Their most critical need is consistency. This team can get great momentum, and then do something stupid (a couple of dumb penalties, consecutive dropped balls, etc) that slows or stalls them. Due to this, Spurrier usually loses one game a season that they should win. That could leave them with a 6-2 conference record and no chance at the division title.
3. Florida Gators (5-3/9-3): It's looking more likely that last season's QB Jeff Driskel won't be starting the season. That begs the question -- who will? Neither junior Tyler Murphy nor sophomore Ryan McGriff have seen much playing time. Either quarterback will be supported by a talented corps of receivers, but a weak running game limits their mobility against tough and speedy defenses.
4. Missouri Tigers (5-3/9-3): The biggest problem for the Tigers is protection. No, they haven't forgotten to pay their insurance; they have had to replace too many people on both the offensive and defensive lines. Given the speed and power of this conference, that is not a good situation.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6/5-7): Some of the national analysts are predicting a good year for Vandy, but needing to replace their quarterback and top runner from last year makes it hard. Even worse, new premier running back Brian Kimbrow leaves many people wondering if he can maintain his 6+ yards per carry from last year when he steps up to full-time starter. If he falters or gets injured, they don't have a reliable back-up.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (1-7/2-9) They brought back plenty of starters from last year. The year of experience will be helpful, but they still can't compete with many of the teams in this conference.
7. Tennessee Volunteers (0-8/3-9): This team lost too much from last year: QB, best receiver, best runner, best DB, etc. The easy non-conference schedule will give them some confidence, but you need than that in this cofnerence.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0): The Tide have a real chance to three-peat. They get most of their starters from last season back, and the new roster fillers learned from last year's stars. This entire squad has been to the National Champion game, some of them three times, and you can't beat that experience.
2. LSU Tigers (6-2/9-3): This is a crucial year for LSU. The play of RB Jeremy Hill has caused many SEC teams to put a bulls-eye on the jerseys of Tigers players. Worse, the actions of coach Les Miles has attracted attention of the NCAA. The Tigers could face sanctions starting 2014, so they have to win. The Tigers don't play well when they are desperate, though, and they lack the full-roster talent of Alabama, Georgia, or South Carolina.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (4-4/8-4): This team could end better than 8-4, but they won't if Johnny Manziel doesn't play, and the chance of NCAA sanctions increases every week. Between his illegal partying ways (remember, he is under the legal drinking age) and his autograph sessions, Manziel is providing the NCAA rules committee too much ammunition.
4. Misissippi State Bulldogs (4-4/7-5): The Bulldogs lost their top two receivers from last year, but QB Tyler Russell has other targets. The defense unfortunately took a step back. This team will improve as the season progresses, but they'll have a 50/50 start.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5/6-6): New coach Bret Bielema brings a rushing focus to the Razorbacks. Bielema found success at Wisconsin with their strong running philosophy. In order to make this work, they need to strengthen the offensive line. Worse, Bielema has to break in a new quarterback the same year he is breaking in a new offensive scheme. This will be a tough year.
6. Auburn Tigers (3-5/6-6): Former coordinator Gus Malzahn returns to lead the Tigers, but this is a team in disarray. One of his first priorities is settling the quarterback controversy. Then he needs to strengthen his porous defense, and increase the speed of his offense. This will be a rebuilding year.
7. Ole Miss Rebels (1-7/4-8): The Rebels need to replace their key offensive contributor last year -- quarterback (and number two runner) Bo Wallace. With a weakened defense as well, this will be a rebuilding year.
ACC Atlantic
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0/10-2): This team will dominate the ACC, with their toughest game against Florida State. Facing two SEC powerhouses (Georgia and South Carolina) will destroy any chances for a national title, but the Tigers will still play in a BCS bowl.
2. Florida State Seminoles (6-2/8-4): The Seminoles needs to replace eleven starters from last year. The key position is quarterback. Jameis Winston is highly touted, but a thin receiving corps (both from graduation and injuries) will make it tough at first.
3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/9-3): Wake has a strong offense. QB Tanner Price is very talented and experienced, he has good receivers and runners, and should get better support from the offensive line this year. The problem is on defense. Although the Deacons have a strong starting squad, they are thin on replacements, so injuries will kill them.
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-4/7-5): New coach Dave Doesen was used to successful seasons at Northern Illinois. He may get there at NC State, but not this year. He has plenty of starters to replace, especially on offense. With no running game to speak of and a porous defense, the Wolfpack will struggle.
5. Maryland Terrapins (2-6/5-7): The Terrapins have a good defense, but just "good" is not sufficient in this conference. The offense, especially on the line and in the running game, will gradually improve, but it won't be quick enough to save their season.
6. Boston College Eagles (2-6/4-8): New coach Steve Addazio brings a new offensive scheme to QB Chase Rettig. Rettig seems pretty good at learning new schemes, and he has good corps of receivers to support him. There doesn't seem to be a strong running presence, though, and a one-sided offense will not survive against these defenses.
7. Syracuse Orange (0-8/2-10): A new conference, a new coach, a new quarterback, a new offensive line, and a new defensive line. Same losing results, though.
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2): Last year's adversity has hardened this team. With a favorable schedule after Week 1, the Hokies have a great chance to set themselves to face Clemson in the conference title game, which won't end well.
2. Miami Hurricanes (6-2/9-3): QB Stephen Morris has a plethora of experienced receivers and good runners. With a strong offensive line and stingy defense, this team is a strong contender. If they had the Hokies' schedule, they'd run through the conference unbeaten.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2/8-4): The Tar Heels have some holes on the offensive line to replace, as well as their best runner from last year, but the offense is still strong. Unfortunately they lost their two best defenders, and that hurts them more.
4. Duke Blue Devils (3-5/6-6): Note the huge gap between the top three teams in this division and the rest. Duke needs to replace their quarterback, but new starter Anthony Boone has some experience, and he has talented receivers to help him. A weak rushing attack and weak defense is their Achilles Heel. Once again, Duke will start strongly and then fade.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-5/5-7): A new quarterback and mediocre receivers leaves Tech with a weak passing attack. A strong offensive line will help a running game, but a main workhorse has not shown up in spring practice. The defense is improving, but the questionnable offense makes them a poor bet.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-6/4-8): Breaking in a new quarterback in a new conference. Losing their best rusher makes this a long year for Pitt.
7. Virginia Cavaliers (0-8/1-11): Pity the Cavs. They have a terrible schedule, with killer road games. Too many coaching changes leaves them listless.
American Athletic
1. Louisville Cardinals (8-0/12-0): The Cards have a great schedule, and they could run the table. Unfortunately, that won't get them to the National Championship Game, but it might give QB Teddy Bridgeater the Heisman Trophy -- he's certainly a front runner as the season dawns.
2. Houston Cougars (6-2/9-3): QB David Piland is back with most of his favorite targets. The rushing game is weak, as is the defense, but Houston will challenge teams to outscore them.
3. UCF Golden Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Blake Bortles gives the Knights a 3000-yard passer. They lost their best rusher from last year, but new starter Storm Johnson saw quite a bit of playing time. If Johnson comes on strong, the Knights could push Louisville.
4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Gary Nova is back, so the passing game is in good hands. The Knights have a strong defense, but they have a weak running game. That's one area they will have to improve before moving to the Big Ten next year.
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3/6-6): The Bearcats put two Big Ten teams on their schedule in preparation for joining the conference, but those early games will pulverize them. They lost lots of positions on the offensive line, in the offensive backfield, and in the defensive backfield. They are also thin on replacements, so they could slide badly late in the season as players get hurt.
6. South Florida Bulls (3-5/5-7): Their defense is solid, but the offense will be non-existent early. They are breaking in a new quarterback and new runners. The Bulls will build some great experience for next year, but this year will be nothing but a learning experience.
7. Memphis Tigers (3-5/4-8): Senior QB Jacob Kalam should have a better year this year, as he has several experienced receivers. The running game is okay, but not great. The problem lies on the defensive side of the ball, making Memphis prone to lose high-scoring games.
8. SMU Mustangs (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Garrett Gilbert could reach 3000 passing yards this year, but he has some obstacles. He doesn't really have a running game to help balance the offense, and the offensive line has some holes, meaning Gilbert will be on the run. A weakened defense also hurts this team.
9. UConn Huskies (1-7/2-9): Junior QB Chandler Whitmer is the only bright spot on a poor offense. The defense is strong, but they aren't great at forcing turnovers, and they will need that to complement a struggling offense.
10. Temple Owls (0-8/1-11): The only bright spot on their offense last year, RB Montel Harris, is gone. Without him, this team is not likely to beat ANY FBS opponent.
Sun Belt
1. Western Kentucky (9-0/10-2): Senior QB Kawaun Jakes is a potent weapon. He throws to a variety of targets, so it is hard for defenses to know where he'll throw. With a good defense and strong running game, this team is powerful.
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-1/9-3): Losing QB Brian Aplin would seem to hurt them, but the Red Wolves have many talented receivers with great hands to support the new quarterback. Moreover, the running game is solid, behind workhorse David Oku. Add in a strong defense, and the Red Wolves are still a threat.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (5-2/7-5): They have a tough schedule, facing their toughest opponents on the road. QB Terrance Broadway may reach 3000 yards passing, but he needs to stay in the pocket and pass more; he is too prone to run. The defense took a backstep, but they should get better as the season goes on.
4. Louisiana-Monroe Indians (4-3/6-6): QB Kolton Browning lost his best target from last season, but senior WR Je'Ron Hamm was a big part of the offense, and he comes back. Without a running game, though, the burden falls on Browning and Hamm.
5. Troy Trojans (3-4/4-8): QB Corey Robinson is poised for another great season, but the Trojans have no running game, leaving them one-sided. Robinson also lost his best target from last year, so he needs to establish rapport with someone else. A weak defense further complicates things for Troy.
6. South Alabama Jaguars (2-5/3-9): The offense basically consists of QB Ross Metheny and WR Jereme Jones. Without a decent defense, this team will struggle.
7. Texas State Bobcats (1-6/2-10): They lost their QB, best runner, and best defenders. This will be a bad year for the Bobcats.
8. Georgia State Panthers (0-7/2-10): This team was a weakling in the Colonial Athletic Conference last year. They have rushed their move into Division I play, and should not have moved up to FBS.
As usual, I will break my NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision previews into three regional columns, although there will be less to discuss when I get to the West. We are down to ten conferences, with the potential to fall to eight by 2016.
SEC East
1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1 in conf / 11-1 overall): This team has the most potent overall offense in the conference, and that includes Texas A&M. They lost some key defenders, especially in their secondary and linebacking corps, but they get to host their toughest opponents. Unfortunately they face South Carolina too early, before the new defenders can gel. That game will prevent a perfect season for the Bulldogs.
2. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1/10-2) : With a healthy Clowney on defense, this team is a dangerous threat. Their most critical need is consistency. This team can get great momentum, and then do something stupid (a couple of dumb penalties, consecutive dropped balls, etc) that slows or stalls them. Due to this, Spurrier usually loses one game a season that they should win. That could leave them with a 6-2 conference record and no chance at the division title.
3. Florida Gators (5-3/9-3): It's looking more likely that last season's QB Jeff Driskel won't be starting the season. That begs the question -- who will? Neither junior Tyler Murphy nor sophomore Ryan McGriff have seen much playing time. Either quarterback will be supported by a talented corps of receivers, but a weak running game limits their mobility against tough and speedy defenses.
4. Missouri Tigers (5-3/9-3): The biggest problem for the Tigers is protection. No, they haven't forgotten to pay their insurance; they have had to replace too many people on both the offensive and defensive lines. Given the speed and power of this conference, that is not a good situation.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6/5-7): Some of the national analysts are predicting a good year for Vandy, but needing to replace their quarterback and top runner from last year makes it hard. Even worse, new premier running back Brian Kimbrow leaves many people wondering if he can maintain his 6+ yards per carry from last year when he steps up to full-time starter. If he falters or gets injured, they don't have a reliable back-up.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (1-7/2-9) They brought back plenty of starters from last year. The year of experience will be helpful, but they still can't compete with many of the teams in this conference.
7. Tennessee Volunteers (0-8/3-9): This team lost too much from last year: QB, best receiver, best runner, best DB, etc. The easy non-conference schedule will give them some confidence, but you need than that in this cofnerence.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0): The Tide have a real chance to three-peat. They get most of their starters from last season back, and the new roster fillers learned from last year's stars. This entire squad has been to the National Champion game, some of them three times, and you can't beat that experience.
2. LSU Tigers (6-2/9-3): This is a crucial year for LSU. The play of RB Jeremy Hill has caused many SEC teams to put a bulls-eye on the jerseys of Tigers players. Worse, the actions of coach Les Miles has attracted attention of the NCAA. The Tigers could face sanctions starting 2014, so they have to win. The Tigers don't play well when they are desperate, though, and they lack the full-roster talent of Alabama, Georgia, or South Carolina.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (4-4/8-4): This team could end better than 8-4, but they won't if Johnny Manziel doesn't play, and the chance of NCAA sanctions increases every week. Between his illegal partying ways (remember, he is under the legal drinking age) and his autograph sessions, Manziel is providing the NCAA rules committee too much ammunition.
4. Misissippi State Bulldogs (4-4/7-5): The Bulldogs lost their top two receivers from last year, but QB Tyler Russell has other targets. The defense unfortunately took a step back. This team will improve as the season progresses, but they'll have a 50/50 start.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5/6-6): New coach Bret Bielema brings a rushing focus to the Razorbacks. Bielema found success at Wisconsin with their strong running philosophy. In order to make this work, they need to strengthen the offensive line. Worse, Bielema has to break in a new quarterback the same year he is breaking in a new offensive scheme. This will be a tough year.
6. Auburn Tigers (3-5/6-6): Former coordinator Gus Malzahn returns to lead the Tigers, but this is a team in disarray. One of his first priorities is settling the quarterback controversy. Then he needs to strengthen his porous defense, and increase the speed of his offense. This will be a rebuilding year.
7. Ole Miss Rebels (1-7/4-8): The Rebels need to replace their key offensive contributor last year -- quarterback (and number two runner) Bo Wallace. With a weakened defense as well, this will be a rebuilding year.
ACC Atlantic
1. Clemson Tigers (8-0/10-2): This team will dominate the ACC, with their toughest game against Florida State. Facing two SEC powerhouses (Georgia and South Carolina) will destroy any chances for a national title, but the Tigers will still play in a BCS bowl.
2. Florida State Seminoles (6-2/8-4): The Seminoles needs to replace eleven starters from last year. The key position is quarterback. Jameis Winston is highly touted, but a thin receiving corps (both from graduation and injuries) will make it tough at first.
3. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-3/9-3): Wake has a strong offense. QB Tanner Price is very talented and experienced, he has good receivers and runners, and should get better support from the offensive line this year. The problem is on defense. Although the Deacons have a strong starting squad, they are thin on replacements, so injuries will kill them.
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack (4-4/7-5): New coach Dave Doesen was used to successful seasons at Northern Illinois. He may get there at NC State, but not this year. He has plenty of starters to replace, especially on offense. With no running game to speak of and a porous defense, the Wolfpack will struggle.
5. Maryland Terrapins (2-6/5-7): The Terrapins have a good defense, but just "good" is not sufficient in this conference. The offense, especially on the line and in the running game, will gradually improve, but it won't be quick enough to save their season.
6. Boston College Eagles (2-6/4-8): New coach Steve Addazio brings a new offensive scheme to QB Chase Rettig. Rettig seems pretty good at learning new schemes, and he has good corps of receivers to support him. There doesn't seem to be a strong running presence, though, and a one-sided offense will not survive against these defenses.
7. Syracuse Orange (0-8/2-10): A new conference, a new coach, a new quarterback, a new offensive line, and a new defensive line. Same losing results, though.
ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/10-2): Last year's adversity has hardened this team. With a favorable schedule after Week 1, the Hokies have a great chance to set themselves to face Clemson in the conference title game, which won't end well.
2. Miami Hurricanes (6-2/9-3): QB Stephen Morris has a plethora of experienced receivers and good runners. With a strong offensive line and stingy defense, this team is a strong contender. If they had the Hokies' schedule, they'd run through the conference unbeaten.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-2/8-4): The Tar Heels have some holes on the offensive line to replace, as well as their best runner from last year, but the offense is still strong. Unfortunately they lost their two best defenders, and that hurts them more.
4. Duke Blue Devils (3-5/6-6): Note the huge gap between the top three teams in this division and the rest. Duke needs to replace their quarterback, but new starter Anthony Boone has some experience, and he has talented receivers to help him. A weak rushing attack and weak defense is their Achilles Heel. Once again, Duke will start strongly and then fade.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-5/5-7): A new quarterback and mediocre receivers leaves Tech with a weak passing attack. A strong offensive line will help a running game, but a main workhorse has not shown up in spring practice. The defense is improving, but the questionnable offense makes them a poor bet.
6. Pittsburgh Panthers (2-6/4-8): Breaking in a new quarterback in a new conference. Losing their best rusher makes this a long year for Pitt.
7. Virginia Cavaliers (0-8/1-11): Pity the Cavs. They have a terrible schedule, with killer road games. Too many coaching changes leaves them listless.
American Athletic
1. Louisville Cardinals (8-0/12-0): The Cards have a great schedule, and they could run the table. Unfortunately, that won't get them to the National Championship Game, but it might give QB Teddy Bridgeater the Heisman Trophy -- he's certainly a front runner as the season dawns.
2. Houston Cougars (6-2/9-3): QB David Piland is back with most of his favorite targets. The rushing game is weak, as is the defense, but Houston will challenge teams to outscore them.
3. UCF Golden Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Blake Bortles gives the Knights a 3000-yard passer. They lost their best rusher from last year, but new starter Storm Johnson saw quite a bit of playing time. If Johnson comes on strong, the Knights could push Louisville.
4. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-2/8-4): QB Gary Nova is back, so the passing game is in good hands. The Knights have a strong defense, but they have a weak running game. That's one area they will have to improve before moving to the Big Ten next year.
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3/6-6): The Bearcats put two Big Ten teams on their schedule in preparation for joining the conference, but those early games will pulverize them. They lost lots of positions on the offensive line, in the offensive backfield, and in the defensive backfield. They are also thin on replacements, so they could slide badly late in the season as players get hurt.
6. South Florida Bulls (3-5/5-7): Their defense is solid, but the offense will be non-existent early. They are breaking in a new quarterback and new runners. The Bulls will build some great experience for next year, but this year will be nothing but a learning experience.
7. Memphis Tigers (3-5/4-8): Senior QB Jacob Kalam should have a better year this year, as he has several experienced receivers. The running game is okay, but not great. The problem lies on the defensive side of the ball, making Memphis prone to lose high-scoring games.
8. SMU Mustangs (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Garrett Gilbert could reach 3000 passing yards this year, but he has some obstacles. He doesn't really have a running game to help balance the offense, and the offensive line has some holes, meaning Gilbert will be on the run. A weakened defense also hurts this team.
9. UConn Huskies (1-7/2-9): Junior QB Chandler Whitmer is the only bright spot on a poor offense. The defense is strong, but they aren't great at forcing turnovers, and they will need that to complement a struggling offense.
10. Temple Owls (0-8/1-11): The only bright spot on their offense last year, RB Montel Harris, is gone. Without him, this team is not likely to beat ANY FBS opponent.
Sun Belt
1. Western Kentucky (9-0/10-2): Senior QB Kawaun Jakes is a potent weapon. He throws to a variety of targets, so it is hard for defenses to know where he'll throw. With a good defense and strong running game, this team is powerful.
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-1/9-3): Losing QB Brian Aplin would seem to hurt them, but the Red Wolves have many talented receivers with great hands to support the new quarterback. Moreover, the running game is solid, behind workhorse David Oku. Add in a strong defense, and the Red Wolves are still a threat.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (5-2/7-5): They have a tough schedule, facing their toughest opponents on the road. QB Terrance Broadway may reach 3000 yards passing, but he needs to stay in the pocket and pass more; he is too prone to run. The defense took a backstep, but they should get better as the season goes on.
4. Louisiana-Monroe Indians (4-3/6-6): QB Kolton Browning lost his best target from last season, but senior WR Je'Ron Hamm was a big part of the offense, and he comes back. Without a running game, though, the burden falls on Browning and Hamm.
5. Troy Trojans (3-4/4-8): QB Corey Robinson is poised for another great season, but the Trojans have no running game, leaving them one-sided. Robinson also lost his best target from last year, so he needs to establish rapport with someone else. A weak defense further complicates things for Troy.
6. South Alabama Jaguars (2-5/3-9): The offense basically consists of QB Ross Metheny and WR Jereme Jones. Without a decent defense, this team will struggle.
7. Texas State Bobcats (1-6/2-10): They lost their QB, best runner, and best defenders. This will be a bad year for the Bobcats.
8. Georgia State Panthers (0-7/2-10): This team was a weakling in the Colonial Athletic Conference last year. They have rushed their move into Division I play, and should not have moved up to FBS.
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