NFL Conference Championships

 Anyone noticed my absence?  I've been putting off this column, mainly because it is so hard to write.  We have an excellent slate of teams playing in the conference championship games this postseason, and really ANYONE could advance to the Super Bowl.  Still, time for me to put on my prognosticator's hat and give it a whirl:

NFC: Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Packers:  The Bucs were the only team this season to completely shut down the Packers offense.  So the first question is, can they do it again?  I don't think so.  The Bucs were a mystery this season; nobody really knew for sure if this team would gel.  It took time for the offense to gel, but the defense came together quickly.  The Packers weren't prepared for that.  They are now.

While the defense will help, if the Bucs want to win, they will need their offense.  That offense is looking sharper than it has all season, and that bodes well for Tampa Bay.  However, I still saw that some receivers were out of sync with Brady during the Saints game.  The Bucs won that game more because the Saints were more out of sync, and the defense and special teams helped the scoring.  I don't expect the Bucs to get the same help against the Packers.  Close game, but the Pack leave Lambeau victorious.  PACKERS, 27-23

AFC:  Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs:  First, the good news -- Patrick Mahomes has cleared the concussion protocol and will start.  However, he now becomes a liability to the team.  You can bet the Bills will blitz more, as they want to get to Mahomes and make him concerned about getting hurt again.  Mahomes is a killer QB when he is focused, so the Bills want him off-balance and concerned.  They have the defense to do that.  This is a tougher team than the Browns (no knock against the Browns, just a statement of fact), especially on offense.  If the Bills can slow down the Chiefs offense by distracting Mahomes, Josh Allen and the offense can become the stars of the show.  I keep seeing the stiff defense that kept Lamar Jackson and the Ravens off-track and befuddled all game last week.  I think the defending Super Bowl Champions will have their hands full, and might even taste defeat.  BILLS, 28-27

A Word of Caution to Urban Meyer

 Now that Urban Meyer has agreed to be the next coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, I thought I'd pass along a caution to the former Buckeyes coach -- carefully choose your top draft pick.  Everyone's favorite is Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, but he might not be worth the money.

Let me start off by saying that Lawrence is very talented.  My caution has nothing to do with his potential.  But the NFL has a long history of talented college players who fail miserably in the pros.  Why do I think Trevor Lawrence might fall into that category?  Because I see some alarming similarities between Trevor Lawrence and another highly talented college QB who failed miserably in the NFL -- Johnny Manziel.

For both of these stars, their college coach revamped the offensive scheme to fit what the quarterback already knew.  In other words, neither player had to learn a new offense during their college career.  Both quarterbacks played in a system that favored long passes and quick scores, instead of a ball-control offense that focused on short passes and running the ball, thereby running down the clock.  Both played in conferences that might have quick defenses, but the defensive schemes were not complicated.  Neither player had to make too many on-field adjustments because they were facing an unusual defensive scheme.

In the NFL, both offenses and defenses are more complicated.  To be successful, the quarterback has to be willing to work, to learn, and adjust for a large number of on-field situations.  And that's where the worst similarity between these two players occur -- both Trevor Lawrence and Johnny Manziel preferred to bask in their fans' adulation instead of spending more time reviewing film.  For Manziel, he attended lots of parties, which led to his substance abuse problems.  Lawrence spends more of his time online with social media, so he is less likely to suffer from the substance abuse problems that sank Manziel's career, but he must still be willing to do the work and study.

Now, there are two situations that might help Trevor Lawrence prevent the ignoble fate of "Mister Football".  First of all, Urban Meyer is the Jaguars new coach.  Meyer is strict about discipline, and won't give Lawrence much leeway.  If Lawrence isn't putting in the appropriate amount of time to learn the schemes, Meyer won't tolerate it.  Lawrence might find himself benched in favor of Gardner Minshew, who is capable but not spectacular, nor consistent enough to make this team a winner.  How will Lawrence take the benching?  That, also, may demonstrate how successful he will be.  If it makes him more determined, than he could become a great quarterback.  If he sulks and pulls away from the team, he's dead weight, and a waste of Jacksonville's money.

What is the second situation?  The fact that the Ohio State Buckeyes defense was so successful at shutting him down.  For the first time, Trevor Lawrence could not do what he wanted on the field.  And, by pure chance, a coach who truly understands that defense would be his new head coach -- Urban Meyer.  The result of his frustration over the Sugar Bowl Game could open his mind to what Coach Meyer has to offer, and that could lead to a successful quarterback career.

NFL Divisional playoff picks

 Well, we had an exciting wildcard weekend!  The Rams were a surprise, as were the number of points scored in the Browns-Steelers game. I don't think ANYONE would have predicted that THAT game would produce the most total points of any other in the weekend!

Now the top seeds join the mix, and things get very interesting, and the competition gets even more fierce.

Saturday games

#6 Los Angeles Rams at #1 Green Bay Packers : The Rams played great against the Seahawks, as their defense supported a quarterback with shaky health issues.  However, they have their hands full with the Packers.  It's always tough to go up to Lambeau Field in winter, and the Packers are packed with talent this season.  They have the most prolific offense in the league, and QB Aaron Rodgers spreads it around.  Who to block?  Who to watch?  The Pack will keep the Rams defense busy, and will start to wear them down.  The game might be close at the half, but the Pack will pull away in the fourth quarter.  PACKERS, 30-23

#5 Baltimore Ravens at #2 Buffalo Bills : This could be the most interesting game of the weekend!  The Bills have a high-powered offense, but that offense is facing a very tough defense.  If the Bills can devise a plan to get past them, they can outscore the Ravens, but if that defense stuffs them, or captures a pick six, the Bills might find themselves missing the Conference Championship.  BILLS, 30-23

Sunday games

#6 Cleveland Browns at #1 Kansas City Chiefs : The Browns defense destroyed the Steelers in the first quarter, but then the Steelers outscored the Browns 37-20.  Watch the Chiefs put up an equally-massive tally.  CHIEFS, 37-24

#5 Tampa Bay Bucs at #2 New Orleans Saints : This is an interesting matchup of quarterbacks.  On the one hand you have the best playoff quarterback in the history of the league -- Tom Brady.  On the other hand, you have the most prolific passer in both yards and touchdowns, possibly facing his final year in the league and desperate to go out with a Super Bowl win -- Drew Brees.  Certainly the Saints offense has the been the more consistent, but the Bucs pulled it together to close the season.  I'm going to pick the Saints here, but the Bucs won't make it easy, and they may pull off the upset.  SAINTS, 31-27

NFL 2020 Final Power Rankings and Playoff picks

 Aside from Tampa Bay choosing not to rest their starters, the final week of the NFL season went pretty much as I expected.  While I am sorry to see Miami fail to make the playoffs, I am overjoyed that the Browns finally get to return to the playoffs.

Final Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Green Bay Packers (13-3) [2] : They did their job against the Bears, and now get to rest up for next week

2.  New Orleans Saints (12-4) [3] : Even with Taysom Hill playing for most of the game, the Saints still slaughtered the Panthers.  They are definitely a threat to the Packers to win the conference.

3.  Baltimore Ravens (11-5) [4] : They completely dominated the Bengals.  They are definitely the strongest wildcard among the playoff teams.

4.  Buffalo Bills (13-3) [6] : They scored the most points in team history and had the greatest margin of victory in over thirty years.  What a momentum boost into the playoffs!

5.  Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) [1] : Don't read too much into their drop this week.  They took it easy, while teams below them needed strong victories.  The Chiefs are still the favorite in the AFC.

6.  Tampa Bay Bucs (11-5) [7] : They played the starters when they didn't need to, and showed up well.  Perhaps they wanted to discover if they have solved the offensive problems that made them so inconsistent throughout the season?  We'll see during the playoffs.

7.  Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) [5] : Again, not a surprise that they would slide, but Mason Rudolph actually played the Browns tougher than I thought.  Don't count out Pittsburgh just yet.

8.  Indianapolis Colts (11-5) [9] : Big victory over the Jags, but that's not too tough

9.  Seattle Seahawks (12-4) [8] : They would have been higher if they hadn't allowed that late score by the 49ers

10. Los Angeles Rams (10-6) [11] : They held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to a single score.  That was a great defensive performance!

11. Miami Dolphins (10-6) [10] : They missed the playoffs, but they have nothing to be ashamed of for this season (other than perhaps allowing Buffalo to score 56 points against them)

12. Tennessee Titans (11-5) [12] : Where was the defense in their battle with Houston?  Doesn't look good for the AFC South champs.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) [13]

14. Cleveland Browns (11-5) [15]

15. Chicago Bears (8-8) [14]

16. Washington (7-9) [16]

Playoffs - Wildcard round

For the first time ever, we have two triple headers to open the NFL playoffs

Saturday games

#7 Indianapolis Colts at #2 Buffalo Bills : Buffalo will get to have fans at the game for the first time all season.  Talk about a motivator!  Not that Josh Allen needs one -- he's been putting up some fantastic numbers most of the season.  Philip Rivers is good, but remember the knock against him when he was in San Diego -- he had trouble winning playoff games.  Look for history to repeat itself.  BILLS, 31-24

#6 Los Angeles Rams at #3 Seattle Seahawks : These two always play each other tough, and I expect this might be the closest game.  The Rams have a tough defense, but Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense have been posting some great numbers.  While defense oftens wins championships, the difficulties of the Rams offense recently has to make me favor the Seahawks.  SEAHAWKS, 27-24

#5 Tampa Bay Bucs at #4 Washington : The Bucs looked good last week, but no trace of the offensive miscommunications that have troubled them throughout the season.  Are they gone for good?  I'm not sure.  I am sure that, no matter how well Alex Smith plays for Washington, Tom Brady will engineer something better.  When it comes to the playoffs, there is no active QB more dangerous than Brady.  BUCS, 24-16

Sunday games

#5 Baltimore Ravens at #4 Tennessee Titans : The Titans won the AFC South, but they had a boost from a 5-1 divisional record.  Outside the division, they weren't as great.  The Ravens might be the strongest wildcard team in the playoffs, and definitely play a tougher brand of football than the Titans.  RAVENS, 27-20

#7 Chicago Bears at #2 New Orleans Saints : Yeah, my Bears made the playoffs!  Yikes, they have to play the Saints.  Advantage to the Bears - Alvin Kamara will likely not play.  Of course, that didn't bother them last week.  I think a healthy mix of Drew Brees passes and Taysom Hill runs will keep the Bears defense off-center, and allow the Saints to continue marching to the Conference Championship.  SAINTS, 31-20

#6 Cleveland Browns at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers : A rematch of last week that will look nothing like last week, as Big Ben will be back under center.  They might do better with Mason Rudolph, though, as the Browns secondary have a pretty good idea of how Big Ben thinks.  They anticipate his throws well, and the Steelers still have a weak running game, so they have to rely on the passing game.  That need may be their undoing.  BROWNS, 17-13

NFL 2020 Week 16 Power Rankings and Week 17 picks

 The Steelers bounced back to clinch their division, and the Jets engineered their second consecutive win, definitely giving the top pick in the draft to the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Stay tuned, as I will soon be posting a blog as to why I think the Jaguars should NOT use their first pick on Trevor Lawrence, and the QB they SHOULD pick first.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) [1] : The offense wasn't there last week, but the defense showed up

2.  Green Bay Packers (12-3) [2] : Completely dominated the Titans.  Warm up for the Super Bowl, perhaps?

3.  New Orleans Saints (11-4) [3] : Slaughtered the Vikings to clinch their division title

4.  Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [5] : Another strong defensive performance

5.  Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3) [4]

6.  Buffalo Bills (12-3) [8] : Clinched a division and set themselves up for second seed

7.  Tampa Bay Bucs (10-5) [12] : Clinched a playoff berth in strong fashion, just demolishing the Lions in their best offensive performance of the season

8.  Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [10] : Strong win over the Rams that put LA's playoff hopes in jeopardy

9.  Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [6] : A loss to the Steelers leaves them barely holding on to playoff dreams

10. Miami Dolphins (10-5) [7] : They nearly lost to the Raiders in a wild finish

11. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) [11] : Bad loss to the Seahawks after a loss to the Jets.  The Rams are going in the wrong direction.

12. Tennessee Titans (10-5) [9] : The Packers completely upended them.  They should thank the Steelers for keeping their division title hopes intact

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-7) [13] : Their playoff hopes are slim now

14. Chicago Bears (8-7) [15] : Big win over the Jags lifts them into playoff contention, but they need to upset the Packers to seal the deal.

15. Cleveland Browns (10-5) [14] : Victims of the Jets' second win, the Browns, once chasing the division title, now need to focus or they could lose a playoff berth.

16. Washington (6-9) [16]

Division Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC South [3] : Strong wins by the Saints and Bucs, plus a tight battle by the Falcons against the Chiefs, boosted this division to the top.

2.  NFC West [2] : The Rams fall is hurting this division, but they still manage second place

3.  AFC North [1] : They could contribute three playoff teams to the mix

4.  NFC North [4] : Way behind the top three, the Packers and Bears propel this division to the best of the middle

5.  AFC East [5] : Lo, how the Patriots have fallen.  Still, the Bills and Dolphins keep this division up

6.  AFC West [7] : Only the AFC top seed Chiefs keeps this division afloat

7.  AFC South [6] : Everybody lost last week, and only the Texans came close

8.  NFC East [8]

Divisional and playoff races

Things got a little clearer last week, but some teams still have some muddy paths.  On the AFC side, we know the top seed.  Buffalo and Pittsburgh are the next two seeds.  The Bills clinch the second seed with a win OR a Steelers loss.  With Mason Rudolph starting and a meager running game, that loss seems likely. For the fourth seed, which would be the winner of the AFC South, Tennessee holds the tiebreaker.  Thus, they capture the title if they win OR the Colts lose.

The AFC playoff picture is interesting.  Many of them are "win and in".  Miami leads the pack, so they gain a playoff berth if they win OR any other 10-5 team loses.  Baltimore is next, so they gain a playoff spot if they win or another 10-5 team (aside from Miami) loses.  Cleveland is next, and their best shot is to win, and they play the Big Ben-less Steelers.

If all three of the above teams win, that makes the AFC wildcards easy.  However, if one or more of those teams LOSE, it gets trickier.  If the Colts win and one of those teams lose, the Colts are in.  If the Colts win and the Titans lose, the Colts are the fourth seed and the Titans would need either a Ravens or Dolphins loss to get into the playoffs.  In other words, the Titans are third in line for a wildcard berth.  So you see, there is plenty of incentive for all AFC 10-5 teams to win on Sunday.

The NFC playoff picture is more straight-forward, although missing many seeds.  All divisions are crowned except the NFC East, whose winner will be the fourth seed.  Washington leads, and wins the division with a victory over the Eagles.  If Washington loses, though, the winner of the Dallas-Giants game would win the division.

Green Bay is leading the chase for the top seed.  If they lose, however, the Saints have a shot.  If both the Saints and Packers lose, the Seahawks can gain the top seed if they win.  If all three win, seeds are Green Bay, Saints, Seahawks (in that order).

Fifth seed and top wildcard is already set -- Tampa Bay.  The Bears are in if they win.  Even if they lose they could make the playoffs, because the other two NFC teams in contention PLAY EACH OTHER!  That's right, the winner of the Rams-Cardinals game makes the playoffs.  If the Rams win, they are the sixth seed and the Bears are the seventh, REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME OF THE BEARS-PACKERS GAME.  If the Cardinals win, it depends upon the outcome of the Bears-Packers game.  A Bears win gives them sixth seed and the Cardinals would be seventh seed.  A Bears loss makes the Cardinals the sixth seed and the Rams the seventh seed.  Somehow, I think a lot of Bears fans will be rooting for the Rams.

Week 17 picks

Only Sunday games this week, which is why this column is so delayed.  I wanted to get the most up-to-date information about player injuries and which starters are sitting out, so that I can make the most accurate predictions as possible.

Sunday early games

The AFC wildcard picture is the focus among the early games, as the top three contenders all play.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs are a solid fifth seed regardless of the outcome of this game, so I suspect they rest many of their starters (they won't publish that fact, but...).  Given the strength of the Falcons offense, that should allow the Falcons to win this game.  FALCONS, 24-17

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals : No AFC 10-5 team will be resting players, as they all know the importance of a win.  That means Baltimore will be strong and ready to play this game.  The Bengals have some fire and spirit these past two weeks, and come in with a two-game winning streak, but the Ravens will end that.  RAVENS, 34-23

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants : Both teams will be rooting for Philadelphia that night, but first they must complete this game.  There are too many players out for New York, as the Cowboys have been getting some key players back.  The Cowboys offense has been on fire the past two weeks, and I don't see the Giants defense halting that.  COWBOYS, 27-17

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills : Buffalo has a shot at the second seed, and they want it.  Yes, the second seed does not get a bye this year, so what's the big deal?  The big deal is how that shows up for the playoff-hungry Bills and their fans.  Both teams want a victory, but the Dolphins have a harder time, since Ryan Fitzpatrick is out due to COVID concerns.  That opens the door for Buffalo.  BILLS, 27-23

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions : I think all of the air went out Detroit in last week's loss.  I don't see them putting up much of a fight here.  VIKINGS, 27-13

New York Jets at New England Patriots : The Patriots are banged up, confused, and depressed.  After two consecutive wins, the Jets are hyped up.  Recipe for upset.  JETS, 17-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns : Big Ben is out, Mason Rudolph is in, the Steelers running game is vacant, and the Browns need a win to get into the playoffs.  Throw all of that into a bowl, mix it up, and you get... BROWNS, 24-16

Playoff results: Browns and Ravens in, Miami in trouble, Dallas on deck

Sunday late games

NFC takes center stage in the playoff battles in the late afternoon

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams : Perhaps the most important game for playoff implications.  Both teams have struggled in the past two weeks, but the Rams have looked worse.  Kyler Murray says he is prepared for this game, and I think we'll see a close battle with plenty of lead changes.  It may come down to clock management and the final possession, and in that case I give the edge to the Rams, but this game really could go either way.  RAMS, 24-23

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears : I would love for my Bears to win here, but I don't think so.  The Packers need the first week bye to rest up, so they will be fighting for that top seed.  They have to tools to reach it, too.  PACKERS, 31-23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts : A projected Dolphins loss opens the door to the Colts, and I think they will run right into it.  COLTS, 31-23

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos : This might be a meaningless game for the playoffs, but it's not meaningless to the Raiders, who love to beat on divisional opponents.  A win here also prevents a losing season for the Raiders, so they will fight for this one.  RAIDERS, 24-20

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs : The Chiefs have already clinched the top seed, so they'll rest some folks.  That gives the Chargers a chance to win.  CHARGERS, 23-17

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers : The Saints are also playing for the top seed in the NFC, so they'll fight hard.  However, without Alvin Kamara, their primary ground threat is gone, as well as a frequent "drop down" target for Drew Brees.  That will make this game hard for the Saints.  I'll still pick them, because the Panthers have problems of their own, but Teddy Bridgewater and company could pull off the upset.  SAINTS, 24-23

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers : Although the top seed in the NFC is an unlikely scenario for the Seahawks, I don't see them slacking off for this game.  The 49ers are still missing some key offensive cogs, so they won't be able to get past Seattle.  SEAHAWKS, 27-17

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans : A divisional title awaits the Titans, and they have played divisional opponents very well all season.  However, a rip upon the team by JJ Watt may inspire the Texans, enough for the defense to step it up and stuff the Titans.  I'll pick Tennessee, but watch out for an embarrassed and motivated Texans squad.  TITANS, 27-23

Sunday night

Washington Football Team (okay, I give in!) at Philadelphia Eagles : The outcome of this game may hinge totally on the participation of one man -- Washington QB Alex Smith.  The coach says Alex will play, despite not practicing all week.  If he does, I don't think Jalen Hurts and the Eagles can keep up.  If he does not play, since they don't have Dwayne Haskins anymore, Washington would have to start a QB who has not played more than two downs in a regular season game.  Then, the Eagles should prevail.  WASHINGTON 24-17 (if Smith plays), EAGLES 17-13 (if not)