It was a strange week. Only one Top 25 team was upset (Stanford), but very few demonstrated powerful performances. As a result, there was relatively little movement, and nobody dropped from the Top 25. It seemed like a late season week.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [1] : The only Top 5 team who turned in a strong performance. The gap between Number One and the rest is growing.
2. Oregon Ducks (5-0) [2] : The Ducks floundered in the first half, but their second half was stronger than any of the SEC teams below them. Take that, you SEC doubters! Until you guys improve, Oregon stays at Number Two.
3. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) [4] : Tennessee tested their defense, which doesn't reflect well on that side of the ball.
4. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-0) [5] : Aside from Alabama, the only other Top Ten team with a good performance.
5. LSU Tigers (5-0) [3] : Allowing FCS Towson to score 22 points, and winning by only 16, continues to demonstrate that LSU is not the same team they were last season.
6. Texas Longhorns (4-0) [6] The Cowboys pushed the Longhorns defense. Since their next opponent is the 70-point scoring West Virginia Mountaineers, they have to be concerned.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) [7]
8. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) [9] : The Seminoles had a decent showing, but with South Florida struggling this season, they should have done better.
9. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) [16] : Their offense clearly works well, but Baylor tore through their defense.
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) [10] : They squeaked by Michigan State, but it wasn't comfortable
11. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [11]
12. Florida Gators (4-0) [12]
13. USC Trojans (3-1) [13]
14. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0) [17] : Iowa State slowed that exceptional offense, which showed other Big XII teams it could be done.
15. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [15] Way too close a game against SMU
16. UCLA Bruins (4-1) [18] : Decent game against a weak Colorado team
17. Stanford Cardinal (3-1) [8]
18. Clemson Tigers (4-1) [19] : Good game against Boston College, but the Eagles scored a bit more than they should
19. Baylor Bears (3-1) [14] : Who could score 63 points and LOSE? A team whose defense is porous, that's who
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) [20]
21. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1) [21] : Good game against Cal, but their offense stumbled a bit
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) [22] : Nice comeback against Wisconsin, but they fell very far in the first half
23. Louisville Cardinals (5-0) [23] : Too tight against Southern Miss
24. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0) [24]
25. Michigan State Spartans (3-2) [25] : What's a 3-2 team doing here? How about a team that nearly beat a Top Ten?
On the Edge
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-0), Ohio Bobcats (5-0), Oregon State Beavers (3-0), Northwestern Wildcats (5-0), Texas A&M Aggies (3-1), Utah State Aggies (4-1), Purdue Boilermakers (3-1), Middle Tennessee State Blue Hens (3-1), Nevada Wolf Pack (4-1), San Jose State Spartans (4-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2), Boise State Broncos (3-1), BYU Cougars (3-2), Michigan Wolverines (2-2)
Big Ten Report
Point spread surprises abounded this week. Penn State demolished Illinois, Wisconsin led for most of the game against Nebraska, Iowa slaughtered Minnesota, and Ohio State squeaked by with a single point victory.
LEGENDS Division:
1. Northwestern Wildcats (5-0) : The only unbeaten in the division, they seem to have a good control on their peformance
2. Michigan State Spartans (3-2) : They have a conference loss, but their defense is in order, and the offense looked pretty good against the stingy Buckeye defense
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) : They gave Wisconsin too much of a lead in the first half
4. Michigan Wolverines (2-2)
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-2) : The Hawkeyes struggled outside the conference, but they seem to have found new life with the start of conference play
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1) : Once again, the Gophers can't perform when conference play begins
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) : The Spartans bent them, but they held
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-2) : They continue to improve each week
3. Purdue Boilermakers (3-1) : Currently the best bet to advance to the conference championship, as both Ohio State and Penn State are on probation
4. Wisconsin Badgers (3-2) : Their running game still needs consistency, as Nebraska stopped them in the second half
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-2)
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3) : The only conference team with a losing record
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 4 picks
I'm taking some risks this week, as I am picking plenty of visitors. However, several visiting teams won last week, and I think the match-ups demand some of the picks I am making.
Thursday evening: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are a powerful team. The Browns are improving, but they don't have enough power to upset the Ravens. RAVENS, 31-13
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have one of the most dynamic offenses. Carolina makes some good plays, but they aren't posting the same numbers offensively as they did last year. They won't be able to outscore Matt Ryan and the Falcons. FALCONS, 31-16
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: If Matt Stafford remains on the injured reserve, I don't think Shaun Hill can engineer a win. The Vikings defense isn't great, but it's good enough to stymie Hill. If Stafford returns, they might have enough to get past the Vikings, but it'll be dangerously close. At this point, it sounds like Hill will start, so I'll pick Minnesota. VIKINGS, 26-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have a better record, but the Patriots have performed better, especially on defense. Ryan Fitzgerald is still gaining confidence, which means he can be shaken. The Pats are good at shaking opponents, so that makes them dangerous here. PATS, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers have one of the most potent offenses, and that offense will be too much for the depleted Chiefs defense. CHARGERS, 30-17
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: The 49ers have stumbled, but they still have a powerful and dangerous squad. The Jets have shown life, but their life's blood, the defense, has been down this season. Given that Revis will be out with injury, that's even more reason to question their defense. The 49ers defense, though, will be focused on quarterback, either rushing Sanchez or targeting Tim Tebow. QB is the vulnerable position on the Jets offense, and the 49ers will do a good job in shutting them down. 49ERS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams: Russell Wilson has the Seahawks offense working, but it's the defense that has been the stronger force so far. That defense will confuse the Rams offense, allowing Wilson the opportunity to move the ball as he wishes, without having to worry about scoring quickly. SEAHAWKS, 26-13
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The best defense faces off against the worst defense in the league. This pick is a no-brainer. TEXANS, 30-10
Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Neither team has demonstrated much defense this season, so this will be a high-scoring game. Let loose, I definitely think the Bengals have the better offense, so they get the edge in this game. BENGALS, 37-27
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards have been a surprise team this season, and they've had to deal with rotating quarterbacks. Their defense is the real surprise, as they are greatly improved from last season. That defense will help them win this game. CARDS, 23-16
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The Saints offense has shown some life, but the defense is porous. That's an excellent situation for Green Bay, whose offense has sputtered a bit so far this season. Rodgers and company have the chance to really let loose, and they should win in style this week. PACK, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland is another team whose defense hasn't been showing up, and their offense has been spotty, too. They still rely a bit too much on Darren McFadden. Manning is still getting used to his new targets in Denver, but he's getting batter each week. BRONCOS, 26-20
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs: This is actually a tough game to pick. Washington's offense is soaring, but the defense is spotty. Tampa Bay has a decent defense, but the offense has been inconsistent. Which team will step up, and which team will exploit the other team's weakness? The Bucs are good at exploiting weaknesses, so I like their chances. They would also be another home team pick, which I could use. However, RGIII is the X factor. He could spark a late drive to take the lead, and Tampa isn't good at quick scores. I'll pick Washington, but watch out for the Bucs. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday night: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have turned the ball over way too much this season. Few teams exploit other teams' turnovers more than the Giants, so if the Eagles cannot hold onto the ball, they have no chance of winning. GIANTS, 28-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Here's a home team who shouldn't win, but it likely to do so. The Bears rarely play well on Monday night. Dallas' offense stinks, and the Bears should be able to beat them easily. I'll pick the Bears, because this is a strange year and that strangeness might help lift the Bears from their Monday night curse, but I'm afraid Dallas will win this one. BEARS, 20-16
Thursday evening: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are a powerful team. The Browns are improving, but they don't have enough power to upset the Ravens. RAVENS, 31-13
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have one of the most dynamic offenses. Carolina makes some good plays, but they aren't posting the same numbers offensively as they did last year. They won't be able to outscore Matt Ryan and the Falcons. FALCONS, 31-16
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: If Matt Stafford remains on the injured reserve, I don't think Shaun Hill can engineer a win. The Vikings defense isn't great, but it's good enough to stymie Hill. If Stafford returns, they might have enough to get past the Vikings, but it'll be dangerously close. At this point, it sounds like Hill will start, so I'll pick Minnesota. VIKINGS, 26-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Bills have a better record, but the Patriots have performed better, especially on defense. Ryan Fitzgerald is still gaining confidence, which means he can be shaken. The Pats are good at shaking opponents, so that makes them dangerous here. PATS, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers have one of the most potent offenses, and that offense will be too much for the depleted Chiefs defense. CHARGERS, 30-17
San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: The 49ers have stumbled, but they still have a powerful and dangerous squad. The Jets have shown life, but their life's blood, the defense, has been down this season. Given that Revis will be out with injury, that's even more reason to question their defense. The 49ers defense, though, will be focused on quarterback, either rushing Sanchez or targeting Tim Tebow. QB is the vulnerable position on the Jets offense, and the 49ers will do a good job in shutting them down. 49ERS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams: Russell Wilson has the Seahawks offense working, but it's the defense that has been the stronger force so far. That defense will confuse the Rams offense, allowing Wilson the opportunity to move the ball as he wishes, without having to worry about scoring quickly. SEAHAWKS, 26-13
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The best defense faces off against the worst defense in the league. This pick is a no-brainer. TEXANS, 30-10
Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Neither team has demonstrated much defense this season, so this will be a high-scoring game. Let loose, I definitely think the Bengals have the better offense, so they get the edge in this game. BENGALS, 37-27
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards have been a surprise team this season, and they've had to deal with rotating quarterbacks. Their defense is the real surprise, as they are greatly improved from last season. That defense will help them win this game. CARDS, 23-16
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The Saints offense has shown some life, but the defense is porous. That's an excellent situation for Green Bay, whose offense has sputtered a bit so far this season. Rodgers and company have the chance to really let loose, and they should win in style this week. PACK, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland is another team whose defense hasn't been showing up, and their offense has been spotty, too. They still rely a bit too much on Darren McFadden. Manning is still getting used to his new targets in Denver, but he's getting batter each week. BRONCOS, 26-20
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Bucs: This is actually a tough game to pick. Washington's offense is soaring, but the defense is spotty. Tampa Bay has a decent defense, but the offense has been inconsistent. Which team will step up, and which team will exploit the other team's weakness? The Bucs are good at exploiting weaknesses, so I like their chances. They would also be another home team pick, which I could use. However, RGIII is the X factor. He could spark a late drive to take the lead, and Tampa isn't good at quick scores. I'll pick Washington, but watch out for the Bucs. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday night: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have turned the ball over way too much this season. Few teams exploit other teams' turnovers more than the Giants, so if the Eagles cannot hold onto the ball, they have no chance of winning. GIANTS, 28-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Here's a home team who shouldn't win, but it likely to do so. The Bears rarely play well on Monday night. Dallas' offense stinks, and the Bears should be able to beat them easily. I'll pick the Bears, because this is a strange year and that strangeness might help lift the Bears from their Monday night curse, but I'm afraid Dallas will win this one. BEARS, 20-16
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 3 power rankings
Parity is rampant in the league this year. There are plenty of 1-2 teams, more than I can remember in recent history. That means that 0-3 is not a playoff killer; every team is still in the race. With only 3 unbeaten teams and only TWO winless teams, it is definitely a mediocre year.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (3-0) [2] : Still one of the best defenses in the league, and the offense is looking good, too
2. Atlanta Falcons (3-0) [4] : Owners of one of the most potent offenses so far, their defense gets the job done
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [7] : Definitely the surprise team of the season so far, it doesn't seem to matter who plays quarterback
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) [5] : The defense doesn't seem to have as much as punch, but the offense was able to keep pace with the Patriots; few teams can say that
5. New York Giants (2-1) [18] : A manhandling of Carolina demonstrated strength on both sides of the ball
6. Chicago Bears (2-1) [13] : The Bears don't need Matt Forte as backup RB Michael Bush rushed for more than 100 yards and helped the Bears claw the Rams
7. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [10] : Another surprise team of the year, they got help from the replacement officials, but you can't criticize any defense that can hold Green Bay to less than 14 points.
8. New England Patriots (1-2) [8] : A losing record is a rare occurrence for the Pats, but they do have one of the toughest early season schedules
9. San Diego Chargers (2-1) [3] : Blow out by Atlanta, the offense evaporated
10. Minnesota Vikings (2-1) [16] : Another surprise team, Christian Ponder shows great poise. A healthy Adrian Peterson is helping them much, too
11. Buffalo Bills (2-1) [25] : The Bills took a big leap as strength of schedule has flip-flopped due to poor records of perennial winners. That doesn't take away from what they are doing offensively.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) [12] : Although they have a losing record, they have been doing fairly well, especially on offense
13. Washington Redskins (1-2) [14] : The offense is looking good, but the defense still needs some work
14. New York Jets (2-1) [17] : They engineered a nice fourth quarter comeback
15. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) [1] : Huge drop after an embarrassing loss to Minnesota
16. Green Bay Packers (1-2) [6] : They should have won Monday's game, but their offense still stunk
Divisional rankings [Last week's ranking]
1 (tie). NFC North [2] : With three teams in the top half of the league, and Detroit not far away, this division is showing strength; as much as any other division, at least. Detroit had a chance to extend overtime by kicking a field goal, so if backup QB Shaun Hill can make better decisions, this entire division will be a force.
1 (tie). AFC East [5] : Just like the NFC North, they have three teams in the top half of the league and Miami not far behind. The ending to the Miami - Jets game proved the stupidity of "icing" the kicker, which rarely works. The coach should give bonuses to the players who caused the blocked field goal, even if his own actions wiped it out.
3. NFC West [1] : The rise of the Seahawks and the Cards makes this a powerful division. San Francisco is still potent, too.
4. AFC North [3] : Cincy's fall hurts them, but I expect the Bengals to rise and bring the division with them. Cleveland is showing power, too.
5. NFC East [4] : Dallas and Philadelphia have winning records despite negative difference in points and yardage, so I expect this division to improve as those two live up to their abilities.
6 (tie). NFC South [7] : The Saints collapse due to "bounty-gate" seems definite, and the Panthers are struggling, so this division may end up much like the last couple of seasons, and may be the first division title crowned.
6 (tie). AFC South [8] : This division has the best team in the league, but it also has three of the worst. The Colts are not improving as quickly as hoped, the Titans are too inconsistent, and the Jags are floundering.
8. AFC West [6] : Three of the four teams slipped downwards this week, and I don't know if Oakland's rise will be sustained. Something needs to be done for this division.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (3-0) [2] : Still one of the best defenses in the league, and the offense is looking good, too
2. Atlanta Falcons (3-0) [4] : Owners of one of the most potent offenses so far, their defense gets the job done
3. Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [7] : Definitely the surprise team of the season so far, it doesn't seem to matter who plays quarterback
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) [5] : The defense doesn't seem to have as much as punch, but the offense was able to keep pace with the Patriots; few teams can say that
5. New York Giants (2-1) [18] : A manhandling of Carolina demonstrated strength on both sides of the ball
6. Chicago Bears (2-1) [13] : The Bears don't need Matt Forte as backup RB Michael Bush rushed for more than 100 yards and helped the Bears claw the Rams
7. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [10] : Another surprise team of the year, they got help from the replacement officials, but you can't criticize any defense that can hold Green Bay to less than 14 points.
8. New England Patriots (1-2) [8] : A losing record is a rare occurrence for the Pats, but they do have one of the toughest early season schedules
9. San Diego Chargers (2-1) [3] : Blow out by Atlanta, the offense evaporated
10. Minnesota Vikings (2-1) [16] : Another surprise team, Christian Ponder shows great poise. A healthy Adrian Peterson is helping them much, too
11. Buffalo Bills (2-1) [25] : The Bills took a big leap as strength of schedule has flip-flopped due to poor records of perennial winners. That doesn't take away from what they are doing offensively.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) [12] : Although they have a losing record, they have been doing fairly well, especially on offense
13. Washington Redskins (1-2) [14] : The offense is looking good, but the defense still needs some work
14. New York Jets (2-1) [17] : They engineered a nice fourth quarter comeback
15. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) [1] : Huge drop after an embarrassing loss to Minnesota
16. Green Bay Packers (1-2) [6] : They should have won Monday's game, but their offense still stunk
Divisional rankings [Last week's ranking]
1 (tie). NFC North [2] : With three teams in the top half of the league, and Detroit not far away, this division is showing strength; as much as any other division, at least. Detroit had a chance to extend overtime by kicking a field goal, so if backup QB Shaun Hill can make better decisions, this entire division will be a force.
1 (tie). AFC East [5] : Just like the NFC North, they have three teams in the top half of the league and Miami not far behind. The ending to the Miami - Jets game proved the stupidity of "icing" the kicker, which rarely works. The coach should give bonuses to the players who caused the blocked field goal, even if his own actions wiped it out.
3. NFC West [1] : The rise of the Seahawks and the Cards makes this a powerful division. San Francisco is still potent, too.
4. AFC North [3] : Cincy's fall hurts them, but I expect the Bengals to rise and bring the division with them. Cleveland is showing power, too.
5. NFC East [4] : Dallas and Philadelphia have winning records despite negative difference in points and yardage, so I expect this division to improve as those two live up to their abilities.
6 (tie). NFC South [7] : The Saints collapse due to "bounty-gate" seems definite, and the Panthers are struggling, so this division may end up much like the last couple of seasons, and may be the first division title crowned.
6 (tie). AFC South [8] : This division has the best team in the league, but it also has three of the worst. The Colts are not improving as quickly as hoped, the Titans are too inconsistent, and the Jags are floundering.
8. AFC West [6] : Three of the four teams slipped downwards this week, and I don't know if Oakland's rise will be sustained. Something needs to be done for this division.
NCAA Week 5 picks
There were few true upsets this week, but the Big Ten was again heavily represented. While I thought Louisiana Tech might beat Illinois, I had no idea they'd score as much as they did, and wipe out the Illini so badly. That clinched the weakness of Illinois' thin roster and how dependent they are on their injured starters. Iowa proved their incompetence this season by falling to Central Michigan, one of the weakest teams in the MAC. The other upset wasn't so much for most people, as many national analysts picked Oregon State. I even mentioned how they often upset at least one Pac-12 team each year, although typically they beat them at home. The Beavers proved they have moxie, now they just need one more good win to get into my Top 25.
Thursday evening: #8 Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies: Although most schools tend to schedule a bye week the Saturday before a team plays on Thursday, this is one case where I figure Stanford didn't need it. Washington may have a 2-1 record, but one victory was against FCS Portland State and the other was a squeaker against struggling San Diego State. I think their 38-point loss against LSU is a greater indicator of their (in)ability. This one will be a slaughter. STANFORD by 31
Friday evening: Hawaii Warriors at BYU Cougars: Hawaii typically struggles on the road, and this year they're looking worse than usual. BYU hasn't been stellar, but beating Hawaii in their condition shouldn't be a challenge. BYU by 20
Top 25
Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: I almost feel sorry for Ole Miss. Here they've been having an excellent season, and they open SEC conference play against the top team in the country. Ah well, someone had to. BAMA by 31
#2 Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars: Oregon completely destroyed Arizona last week. What they do to the Cougars won't be pretty. OREGON by 35
Towson Tigers (FCS) at #3 LSU Tigers: Unlike last week's Tigers v Tigers game, this one won't be close. LSU by lots
Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Georgia Bulldogs: Tennessee's only loss so far has been against Florida. Now they face another SEC challenge, this one far greater. GEORGIA by 28
#5 South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats: It seems like the first week of SEC play will feature many one-sided games. This one may be smaller than the others, but not because the Gamecocks aren't as good, but because they are stronger defensively than offensively. SOUTH CAROLINA by 23
#6 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Big XII have more unbeaten teams (seven) than any other conference. This game won't cause one to lose, as Texas has been playing very well, and had an extra week to devise a most devastating offensive scheme. TEXAS by 18
#9 Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls: The Seminoles have proven themselves to be the strongest team in Florida this college season, and this game will confirm that. The Bulls' normally strong defense has been somewhat lacking so far this season, and their offense has been lacking. Florida State has one shutout already this season -- could this be their second? FLORIDA STATE by 30
#10 Ohio State Buckeyes at #25 Michigan State Spartans: This is where the rubber meets the road for the Spartans. They've been winning, but cautiously building their offense. Now, to get past Ohio State, that offense will have to perform. The Spartans defense is sturdy this season, perhaps even more sturdy than that of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have also been improving. This game will measure the Spartans' growth. They might win, but I have to favor the Buckeyes, simply because they have the proven talent to succeed in these battles. OHIO STATE by six
#14 Baylor Bears at #16 West Virginia Mountaineers: The Big XII will be short one unbeaten team at the conclusion of this contest. This was my initial choice for Game of the Week, but I had a special reason for choosing the one I did (no fair scrolling down and reading about it now). Baylor's defense has not shown up well, allowing weak opponents to score way too many points. How will that translate to a powerful offensive like West Virginia's? This game will light up the scoreboard, and I think the Mountaineers will end up the winner, mainly because they have a bit more going for them on the defensive side of the ball. WEST VIRGINIA by four
#!5 TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs: This is a Big XII team that should remain unbeaten. TCU has been pretty clam until last week, but the 20-point over Virginia may have marked a turning point. This game won't really tell us, as SMU isn't strong, but we may see some interesting fireworks from TCU in the coming weeks. TCU by 21
#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones: Another Big XII unbeaten team will fall, as two 3-0 teams face off. Both had last week off, so we don't know what they have planned. Tech scores big but has a weak defense, while Iowa State has been a strange team with no consistent trend. That makes them unpredictable, and makes them dangerous. I'll pick Tech, but watch out for Iowa State pulling off a surprise. TEXAS TECH by six
#18 UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes: The Buffs, who looked like they'd have another pathetic season, pulled off a surprise against Washington State last week. Can they do it again? I don't think so, especially since UCLA wants to clean out the sting administered by Oregon State. UCLA by 16
#19 Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles: This has been a tough season for BC, and it doesn't get any easier this week. Clemson is out to prove something after letting Florida State come back last week. The Tigers will take an early lead and continue to pound away. CLEMSON by 23
#21 Arizona State Sun Devils at California Golden Bears: Cal may give the Sun Devils a real challenge! Cal has only won one game, but they have pushed all of their opponents. This one will be another offensive explosion. I'll favor Arizona State, but this game is definitely on upset watch. ARIZONA STATE by six
Wisconsin Badgers at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Wisconsin finally got their offense moving last week, but I'm not sure we can count on them continuing to do so. Nebraska can be tough, especially on the ground, which is (normally) Wisconsin's forte. Nebraska sees a chance to redeem last season's embarrassment against the Badgers, and I think they'll make the most of the opportunity. NEBRASKA by 14
#23 Louisville Cardinals at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: The Golden Eagles are currently winless, and I don't see that situation changing after this game. Louisville hasn't won big, but they have won. Southern Miss has lost big, including a 30-point scrubbing by Western Kentucky. A poor defense is the big problem, and that defense may give Louisville their biggest victory of the season. LOUISVILLE by 20
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern hasn't been winning by large margins, but they have found ways to win. I think that will continue here. Indiana hasn't been bad this season, but they just can't stop good offenses. Northwestern has a good offense. Their defense isn't hot, so the Hoosiers will get to score, but Northwestern should triumph in the end. NORTHWESTERN by six
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Here's where I differ from my preseason predictions. I thought Penn State would still be reeling from the loss of the transferred players, and that Illinois would be riding a 3-1 non-conference record. Instead, Illinois has an injured line-up and Penn State is coming on. Even if the Illini get some of their injured players back for this game, the Nittany Lions play tough, and those guys may be re-injured. The Illini bench is too thin on talent to win this one. PENN STATE by 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Another game that goes against my preseason predictions. Minnesota has shown tenacity in close games so far this season, a fine quality for a winning team. Iowa has shown inconsistency and a tendency to melt down in the fourth quarter. I think this will once again be a close game, but it goes Minnesota's way. MINNESOTA by four
Other Games of Interest
Missouri Tigers at UCF Golden Knights: Missouri has looked poor in this first season in the SEC, but they are unbeaten outside the conference. They turned back a decent Arizona State team, so you have to wonder if UCF can beat them. I give the Knights an edge, though. They lost to Ohio State, but they've looked good in their other games, with a stable mix of offense and defense. Missouri can score, but they can't stop opponents from scoring. That gives UCF an edge. UCF by eight
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies: I'd have to say that Arkansas has been one of this season's biggest disappointments. Tagged by many in the preseason to compete for a division title in the SEC, the Razorbacks have instead lost to every FBS team they have faced, including last week's nine-point loss to Rutgers. A&M, on the other hand, has fought well in their first season in the SEC, despite losing their first conference game. TEXAS A&M by ten
Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas State Bobcats: A one-point loss to South Florida is the only blemish on Nevada's resume this season. While Texas State has okay in their first FBS season, including defeating Houston by eighteen points, I don't think they can surpass the power of Nevada. NEVADA by 18
Ohio Bobcats at UMass Minutemen: Ohio is hanging just outside of the Top 25. If a couple of upsets happen, they can be right back in the thick of it. UMass, on the other hand, is not enjoying their first FBS season. OHIO by 17
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Virginia Cavaliers: Virginia has not been well the past couple of weeks, while the Bulldogs just tore through Illinois last week. The Bulldogs are likely to do the same against defensively-challenged Virginia. LOUISIANA TECH by 27
Virginia Tech Hokies at Cincinnati Bearcats Cincy hasn't played for a couple of weeks, and they're ready for bear. They're feeling good about their chances, despite Tech's blowout of Bowling Green last week. Why? Because Pitt stung the Hokies while Cincy has already beaten the Panthers. I think Tech started slow and are getting better, so I'll pick them, but watch for the Bearcats to pull off the scare, and potentially the win. VIRGINIA TECH by four
San Jose State Spartans at Navy Midshipmen: Navy has sprung a leak this season, making them easy pickings. San Jose's defense isn't stellar, but Navy is mostly one-dimensional, running most of the time. I think the Spartans will do a good enough job of slowing that down. SAN JOSE STATE by eleven
UNLV Running Rebels at Utah State Aggies: UNLV snuck past Air Force, but they really aren't good this year; after all, they lost to both Washington State and Northern Arizona. Utah State is a powerhouse, having lost only to Wisconsin (by two points). With Louisiana Tech unbeaten, these two are keeping the WAC viable. UTAH STATE by 14
FCS Game of the Week: Monmouth Hawks at Albany Great Danes: The two leaders of the Northeast Conference face off this week, and I get to see it live! Monmouth has looked a little better, so I give them the edge, but I'm rooting for my Danes! Albany has been down so much, this season is a wonderful contrast, and I'd like to see how far Albany can take it. They have never played in the Football Championship series, and I'd love to see it happen this year. MONMOUTH by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats: This game I picked simply because of the emotions involved on both teams, and how that might translate to interesting play on the field. Oregon State is unbeaten, but hasn't garnered the kind of attention received by their unbeaten state rival. Arizona was slaughtered by Oregon last week and need a strong game to bounce back. Both teams have something to prove, so this will be an offensive nailbiter. I give the edge to the Beavers, but they'd better watch out for an angry Wildcat team that doesn't want to be beaten by Oregon teams in two consecutive weeks. OREGON STATE by six
Thursday evening: #8 Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies: Although most schools tend to schedule a bye week the Saturday before a team plays on Thursday, this is one case where I figure Stanford didn't need it. Washington may have a 2-1 record, but one victory was against FCS Portland State and the other was a squeaker against struggling San Diego State. I think their 38-point loss against LSU is a greater indicator of their (in)ability. This one will be a slaughter. STANFORD by 31
Friday evening: Hawaii Warriors at BYU Cougars: Hawaii typically struggles on the road, and this year they're looking worse than usual. BYU hasn't been stellar, but beating Hawaii in their condition shouldn't be a challenge. BYU by 20
Top 25
Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: I almost feel sorry for Ole Miss. Here they've been having an excellent season, and they open SEC conference play against the top team in the country. Ah well, someone had to. BAMA by 31
#2 Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars: Oregon completely destroyed Arizona last week. What they do to the Cougars won't be pretty. OREGON by 35
Towson Tigers (FCS) at #3 LSU Tigers: Unlike last week's Tigers v Tigers game, this one won't be close. LSU by lots
Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Georgia Bulldogs: Tennessee's only loss so far has been against Florida. Now they face another SEC challenge, this one far greater. GEORGIA by 28
#5 South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats: It seems like the first week of SEC play will feature many one-sided games. This one may be smaller than the others, but not because the Gamecocks aren't as good, but because they are stronger defensively than offensively. SOUTH CAROLINA by 23
#6 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Big XII have more unbeaten teams (seven) than any other conference. This game won't cause one to lose, as Texas has been playing very well, and had an extra week to devise a most devastating offensive scheme. TEXAS by 18
#9 Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls: The Seminoles have proven themselves to be the strongest team in Florida this college season, and this game will confirm that. The Bulls' normally strong defense has been somewhat lacking so far this season, and their offense has been lacking. Florida State has one shutout already this season -- could this be their second? FLORIDA STATE by 30
#10 Ohio State Buckeyes at #25 Michigan State Spartans: This is where the rubber meets the road for the Spartans. They've been winning, but cautiously building their offense. Now, to get past Ohio State, that offense will have to perform. The Spartans defense is sturdy this season, perhaps even more sturdy than that of Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have also been improving. This game will measure the Spartans' growth. They might win, but I have to favor the Buckeyes, simply because they have the proven talent to succeed in these battles. OHIO STATE by six
#14 Baylor Bears at #16 West Virginia Mountaineers: The Big XII will be short one unbeaten team at the conclusion of this contest. This was my initial choice for Game of the Week, but I had a special reason for choosing the one I did (no fair scrolling down and reading about it now). Baylor's defense has not shown up well, allowing weak opponents to score way too many points. How will that translate to a powerful offensive like West Virginia's? This game will light up the scoreboard, and I think the Mountaineers will end up the winner, mainly because they have a bit more going for them on the defensive side of the ball. WEST VIRGINIA by four
#!5 TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs: This is a Big XII team that should remain unbeaten. TCU has been pretty clam until last week, but the 20-point over Virginia may have marked a turning point. This game won't really tell us, as SMU isn't strong, but we may see some interesting fireworks from TCU in the coming weeks. TCU by 21
#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones: Another Big XII unbeaten team will fall, as two 3-0 teams face off. Both had last week off, so we don't know what they have planned. Tech scores big but has a weak defense, while Iowa State has been a strange team with no consistent trend. That makes them unpredictable, and makes them dangerous. I'll pick Tech, but watch out for Iowa State pulling off a surprise. TEXAS TECH by six
#18 UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes: The Buffs, who looked like they'd have another pathetic season, pulled off a surprise against Washington State last week. Can they do it again? I don't think so, especially since UCLA wants to clean out the sting administered by Oregon State. UCLA by 16
#19 Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles: This has been a tough season for BC, and it doesn't get any easier this week. Clemson is out to prove something after letting Florida State come back last week. The Tigers will take an early lead and continue to pound away. CLEMSON by 23
#21 Arizona State Sun Devils at California Golden Bears: Cal may give the Sun Devils a real challenge! Cal has only won one game, but they have pushed all of their opponents. This one will be another offensive explosion. I'll favor Arizona State, but this game is definitely on upset watch. ARIZONA STATE by six
Wisconsin Badgers at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Wisconsin finally got their offense moving last week, but I'm not sure we can count on them continuing to do so. Nebraska can be tough, especially on the ground, which is (normally) Wisconsin's forte. Nebraska sees a chance to redeem last season's embarrassment against the Badgers, and I think they'll make the most of the opportunity. NEBRASKA by 14
#23 Louisville Cardinals at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: The Golden Eagles are currently winless, and I don't see that situation changing after this game. Louisville hasn't won big, but they have won. Southern Miss has lost big, including a 30-point scrubbing by Western Kentucky. A poor defense is the big problem, and that defense may give Louisville their biggest victory of the season. LOUISVILLE by 20
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern hasn't been winning by large margins, but they have found ways to win. I think that will continue here. Indiana hasn't been bad this season, but they just can't stop good offenses. Northwestern has a good offense. Their defense isn't hot, so the Hoosiers will get to score, but Northwestern should triumph in the end. NORTHWESTERN by six
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Here's where I differ from my preseason predictions. I thought Penn State would still be reeling from the loss of the transferred players, and that Illinois would be riding a 3-1 non-conference record. Instead, Illinois has an injured line-up and Penn State is coming on. Even if the Illini get some of their injured players back for this game, the Nittany Lions play tough, and those guys may be re-injured. The Illini bench is too thin on talent to win this one. PENN STATE by 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Another game that goes against my preseason predictions. Minnesota has shown tenacity in close games so far this season, a fine quality for a winning team. Iowa has shown inconsistency and a tendency to melt down in the fourth quarter. I think this will once again be a close game, but it goes Minnesota's way. MINNESOTA by four
Other Games of Interest
Missouri Tigers at UCF Golden Knights: Missouri has looked poor in this first season in the SEC, but they are unbeaten outside the conference. They turned back a decent Arizona State team, so you have to wonder if UCF can beat them. I give the Knights an edge, though. They lost to Ohio State, but they've looked good in their other games, with a stable mix of offense and defense. Missouri can score, but they can't stop opponents from scoring. That gives UCF an edge. UCF by eight
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies: I'd have to say that Arkansas has been one of this season's biggest disappointments. Tagged by many in the preseason to compete for a division title in the SEC, the Razorbacks have instead lost to every FBS team they have faced, including last week's nine-point loss to Rutgers. A&M, on the other hand, has fought well in their first season in the SEC, despite losing their first conference game. TEXAS A&M by ten
Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas State Bobcats: A one-point loss to South Florida is the only blemish on Nevada's resume this season. While Texas State has okay in their first FBS season, including defeating Houston by eighteen points, I don't think they can surpass the power of Nevada. NEVADA by 18
Ohio Bobcats at UMass Minutemen: Ohio is hanging just outside of the Top 25. If a couple of upsets happen, they can be right back in the thick of it. UMass, on the other hand, is not enjoying their first FBS season. OHIO by 17
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Virginia Cavaliers: Virginia has not been well the past couple of weeks, while the Bulldogs just tore through Illinois last week. The Bulldogs are likely to do the same against defensively-challenged Virginia. LOUISIANA TECH by 27
Virginia Tech Hokies at Cincinnati Bearcats Cincy hasn't played for a couple of weeks, and they're ready for bear. They're feeling good about their chances, despite Tech's blowout of Bowling Green last week. Why? Because Pitt stung the Hokies while Cincy has already beaten the Panthers. I think Tech started slow and are getting better, so I'll pick them, but watch for the Bearcats to pull off the scare, and potentially the win. VIRGINIA TECH by four
San Jose State Spartans at Navy Midshipmen: Navy has sprung a leak this season, making them easy pickings. San Jose's defense isn't stellar, but Navy is mostly one-dimensional, running most of the time. I think the Spartans will do a good enough job of slowing that down. SAN JOSE STATE by eleven
UNLV Running Rebels at Utah State Aggies: UNLV snuck past Air Force, but they really aren't good this year; after all, they lost to both Washington State and Northern Arizona. Utah State is a powerhouse, having lost only to Wisconsin (by two points). With Louisiana Tech unbeaten, these two are keeping the WAC viable. UTAH STATE by 14
FCS Game of the Week: Monmouth Hawks at Albany Great Danes: The two leaders of the Northeast Conference face off this week, and I get to see it live! Monmouth has looked a little better, so I give them the edge, but I'm rooting for my Danes! Albany has been down so much, this season is a wonderful contrast, and I'd like to see how far Albany can take it. They have never played in the Football Championship series, and I'd love to see it happen this year. MONMOUTH by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats: This game I picked simply because of the emotions involved on both teams, and how that might translate to interesting play on the field. Oregon State is unbeaten, but hasn't garnered the kind of attention received by their unbeaten state rival. Arizona was slaughtered by Oregon last week and need a strong game to bounce back. Both teams have something to prove, so this will be an offensive nailbiter. I give the edge to the Beavers, but they'd better watch out for an angry Wildcat team that doesn't want to be beaten by Oregon teams in two consecutive weeks. OREGON STATE by six
Sunday, September 23, 2012
NCAA Week 4 Top 25
The Top 25 saw the kind of "jockeying for position" often seen in Week 3 in previous years. Things still look very unsettled.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1] : With LSU's struggles against Auburn, the Tide is the clear leader
2. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [4] : HUGE victory vaults them over LSU and Notre Dame, who both played close games
3. LSU Tigers (4-0) [2]
4. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) [5] : Big win for the Dawgs
5. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) [8] : The Gamecocks continue to impress
6. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [6]
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) [3] : They continue to win, but they don't look as strong
8. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [7]
9. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) [10] : They beat Clemson to get past their first major hurtle, and they did it with a fourth quarter comeback
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [9]
11. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [12] : A win over Oklahoma makes them a true contender
12. Florida Gators (4-0) [14]
13. USC Trojans (3-1) [13] : They look more vulnerable now
14. Baylor Bears (3-0) [NR] : Perhaps they didn't lose as much as previously thought with the departure of RGIII
15. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) [NR]
16. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) [18] : Maryland gave them some trouble, but the Mountaineers still have power
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) [17]
18. UCLA Bruins (3-1) [15] : They'll lucky they didn't fall further, but the bottom of the Top 25 isn't as strong
19. Clemson Tigers (3-1) [11] : Tough loss to Florida State
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) [26] : The Bulldogs are fierce
21. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) [22]
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) [20]
23. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [21] : They don't win big, but they continue to win
24. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0) [23]
25. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) [24] :Sparty held onto the Top 25, but they need a big win to keep it, as there are stiff competitors behind them
On the Edge
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-0), Oregon State Beavers (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), UCF Golden Knights (2-1), Northwestern Wildcats (4-0), Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1), Texas A&M Aggies (2-1), San Jose Spartans (3-1), Nevada Wolfpack (3-1), Utah State Aggies (3-1), Michigan Wolverines (2-2)
Dropped off: Arizona Wildcats [#16], Oklahoma Sooners [#19], Ohio Bobcats [#25]
Big Ten Report
With a third consecutive week of unimpressive performances (except Michigan's), I have to concede that the conference, overall, is even worse than I thought in my preview column. They may not be able to fulfill all of their bowl obligations for the first time that I can remember.
LEGENDS Division:
1. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) : QB Andrew Maxwell seems to be improving, but Eastern Michigan is such a weak team it is hard to tell.
2. Michigan Wolverines (2-2) : Their defense held back Notre Dame, but their offense still lacks punch
3. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) : Nice win against a strong FCS team, but we still need to see them perform against a strong FBS opponent
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1)
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0) : Played Syracuse too close to be comfortable
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-2) : Too inconsistent
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) : Not a really impressive win against UAB, but they are playing a bit clearner
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-2) : They continue to improve each week, this week on defense
3. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1)
4. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) : Their offense got moving this week, but the defense showed cracks
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-1)
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) : Injuries have devastated this team, as they have a thin line of talent. They need players to return or their conference schedule will be a gauntlet.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1] : With LSU's struggles against Auburn, the Tide is the clear leader
2. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [4] : HUGE victory vaults them over LSU and Notre Dame, who both played close games
3. LSU Tigers (4-0) [2]
4. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) [5] : Big win for the Dawgs
5. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) [8] : The Gamecocks continue to impress
6. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [6]
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) [3] : They continue to win, but they don't look as strong
8. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [7]
9. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) [10] : They beat Clemson to get past their first major hurtle, and they did it with a fourth quarter comeback
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [9]
11. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [12] : A win over Oklahoma makes them a true contender
12. Florida Gators (4-0) [14]
13. USC Trojans (3-1) [13] : They look more vulnerable now
14. Baylor Bears (3-0) [NR] : Perhaps they didn't lose as much as previously thought with the departure of RGIII
15. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) [NR]
16. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) [18] : Maryland gave them some trouble, but the Mountaineers still have power
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) [17]
18. UCLA Bruins (3-1) [15] : They'll lucky they didn't fall further, but the bottom of the Top 25 isn't as strong
19. Clemson Tigers (3-1) [11] : Tough loss to Florida State
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) [26] : The Bulldogs are fierce
21. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1) [22]
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) [20]
23. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [21] : They don't win big, but they continue to win
24. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0) [23]
25. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) [24] :Sparty held onto the Top 25, but they need a big win to keep it, as there are stiff competitors behind them
On the Edge
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-0), Oregon State Beavers (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), UCF Golden Knights (2-1), Northwestern Wildcats (4-0), Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1), Texas A&M Aggies (2-1), San Jose Spartans (3-1), Nevada Wolfpack (3-1), Utah State Aggies (3-1), Michigan Wolverines (2-2)
Dropped off: Arizona Wildcats [#16], Oklahoma Sooners [#19], Ohio Bobcats [#25]
Big Ten Report
With a third consecutive week of unimpressive performances (except Michigan's), I have to concede that the conference, overall, is even worse than I thought in my preview column. They may not be able to fulfill all of their bowl obligations for the first time that I can remember.
LEGENDS Division:
1. Michigan State Spartans (3-1) : QB Andrew Maxwell seems to be improving, but Eastern Michigan is such a weak team it is hard to tell.
2. Michigan Wolverines (2-2) : Their defense held back Notre Dame, but their offense still lacks punch
3. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) : Nice win against a strong FCS team, but we still need to see them perform against a strong FBS opponent
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1)
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0) : Played Syracuse too close to be comfortable
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-2) : Too inconsistent
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) : Not a really impressive win against UAB, but they are playing a bit clearner
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-2) : They continue to improve each week, this week on defense
3. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1)
4. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) : Their offense got moving this week, but the defense showed cracks
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-1)
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) : Injuries have devastated this team, as they have a thin line of talent. They need players to return or their conference schedule will be a gauntlet.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 3 picks
Home teams dominated last week, causing the largest percentage of 1-1 teams I've seen in years. I'm picking more home team than last week, but still figure the visitors will have chances.
Thursday game: New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: This was a tough game to pick. The Giants are inconsistent, while the Panthers seem to fall short despite impressive offensive performances. The Giants defense may give the Panthers some fits, which might give them an edge. I'll favor the Giants, but watch out for the Panthers! GIANTS, 27-23
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: Brandon Wheeden has revitalized the Browns offense. The defense still needs some work, but the Bills' defense isn't stellar, either. I like what I am seeing from the Browns offense, while Ryan Fitzgerald and the Bills remain too inconsistent to have confidence supporting. BROWNS, 27-26
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins: The Bengals offense isn't quite as stellar as they were last year, which means the Redskins defense might be able to pester them. The Redskins offense is unpredictable and dangerous, thanks to the antics of Robert Griffin III. I think the Redskins will keep the Bengals off-guard. REDSKINS, 30-27
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are struggling so far this season, and I'm not sure Jake Locker and company will get it together. They certainly can't match the offensive power of the Lions. The Lions defense still needs work, so the Titans will get on the board, but not enough to keep pace with Stafford and Johnson. LIONS, 31-16
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck himself admits that his pro football game is still "a project under development," but it won't need to be polished to take the shine off the Jags. The Jags are struggling to score, and many of their offensive squad members don't seem to be working in sync with each other. Expect the Colts to take advantage of that situation. COLTS, 28-13
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: The Saints have not shown up powerfully, despite the playability of their previously suspended players. In previous years, a team struggling as much as KC would be an easy victory. Given the chaos and confusion suffered by the Saints, I'll pick a close game. I'd still be surprised if the Saints lose, just because the Chiefs are stumbling so badly, especially on defense. SAINTS, 20-16
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: These games are often offensive battles. Given that history, I'm going to take the surprise pick and favor the Dolphins. The Jets offense has been struggling, and Ryan Tannehill showed tremendous progress last week. DOLPHINS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings offense, which is moving the ball well with Adrian Petersen, faces the toughest defense in the league. The Vikings don't have enough weapons to spread the 49ers defense, which means it will be tough going for their offense. Meanwhile, Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and the 49ers offense is doing well. 49ERS, 26-13
St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler and the Bears were embarrassed by the Pack last week, but Cutler historically is inconsistent. The Bears will get into a battle with Sam Bradford and the Rams, but a weak Rams defense will help them out. Cutler will have better stats, and will maintain a nice lead as the defense bears down (pun intended). BEARS, 27-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys are a team of contradictions. Their offense smokes on all cylinders against the Giants, then falls apart one week later. Their defense seems to anticipate what the Giants' next move will be, and then can't stop a rookie quarterback from shredding their secondary. The difference in this game will be the Bucs defense. They will pester Tony Romo, who rarely plays well under pressure. That will keep the offense from being effective, which will take the pressure off Josh Freeman, allowing him to think and plan better. BUCS, 20-13
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: This may be the most exciting game of the day! Both teams have offenses that are working well, and both are coming off big wins. Surprisingly, the Chargers defense has some some spark this season, which may give them the edge in this game. They have to watch out for a late fourth quarter rally by Matt Ryan, though; "Matty Ice" is known for those. CHARGERS, 31-27
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: I'd love to say the Broncos will win this game, as I want them to be more successful with Peyton Manning than they were with Tim Tebow, but the massive defense of Houston makes that unlikely. TEXANS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Philly has won two close games, both on fourth quarter comebacks. This time, though, I like the Cards to squeak by. They are definitely the surprise team so far this season, and their defense makes it tough for their opponent. The Eagles are a bit banged up already, and that makes them vulnerable to a defense like Arizona's. CARDS, 28-27
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are finding that they can't rely on Darren McFadden, but they can't rely on anyone else on offense, either. Pittsburgh doesn't need their vaulted defense to win this game, they just need to play better offense than Oakland. STEELERS, 24-16
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: A rematch of last year's AFC Championship, and I think the outcome might be different. The Pats have sputtered a bit so far this season, and the Ravens have shown that they still have power on both sides of the ball. I think Baltimore will lead late, and a rally by the Pats will fall a bit short. RAVENS, 24-23
Monday Night Football: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson seems to have the Seahawks offense working, but its the defense that will be tested here. Expect Aaron Rodgers to air it out; another 400-yard game is possible. PACK, 35-17
Thursday game: New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: This was a tough game to pick. The Giants are inconsistent, while the Panthers seem to fall short despite impressive offensive performances. The Giants defense may give the Panthers some fits, which might give them an edge. I'll favor the Giants, but watch out for the Panthers! GIANTS, 27-23
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: Brandon Wheeden has revitalized the Browns offense. The defense still needs some work, but the Bills' defense isn't stellar, either. I like what I am seeing from the Browns offense, while Ryan Fitzgerald and the Bills remain too inconsistent to have confidence supporting. BROWNS, 27-26
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins: The Bengals offense isn't quite as stellar as they were last year, which means the Redskins defense might be able to pester them. The Redskins offense is unpredictable and dangerous, thanks to the antics of Robert Griffin III. I think the Redskins will keep the Bengals off-guard. REDSKINS, 30-27
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are struggling so far this season, and I'm not sure Jake Locker and company will get it together. They certainly can't match the offensive power of the Lions. The Lions defense still needs work, so the Titans will get on the board, but not enough to keep pace with Stafford and Johnson. LIONS, 31-16
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck himself admits that his pro football game is still "a project under development," but it won't need to be polished to take the shine off the Jags. The Jags are struggling to score, and many of their offensive squad members don't seem to be working in sync with each other. Expect the Colts to take advantage of that situation. COLTS, 28-13
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: The Saints have not shown up powerfully, despite the playability of their previously suspended players. In previous years, a team struggling as much as KC would be an easy victory. Given the chaos and confusion suffered by the Saints, I'll pick a close game. I'd still be surprised if the Saints lose, just because the Chiefs are stumbling so badly, especially on defense. SAINTS, 20-16
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: These games are often offensive battles. Given that history, I'm going to take the surprise pick and favor the Dolphins. The Jets offense has been struggling, and Ryan Tannehill showed tremendous progress last week. DOLPHINS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings offense, which is moving the ball well with Adrian Petersen, faces the toughest defense in the league. The Vikings don't have enough weapons to spread the 49ers defense, which means it will be tough going for their offense. Meanwhile, Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and the 49ers offense is doing well. 49ERS, 26-13
St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler and the Bears were embarrassed by the Pack last week, but Cutler historically is inconsistent. The Bears will get into a battle with Sam Bradford and the Rams, but a weak Rams defense will help them out. Cutler will have better stats, and will maintain a nice lead as the defense bears down (pun intended). BEARS, 27-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys are a team of contradictions. Their offense smokes on all cylinders against the Giants, then falls apart one week later. Their defense seems to anticipate what the Giants' next move will be, and then can't stop a rookie quarterback from shredding their secondary. The difference in this game will be the Bucs defense. They will pester Tony Romo, who rarely plays well under pressure. That will keep the offense from being effective, which will take the pressure off Josh Freeman, allowing him to think and plan better. BUCS, 20-13
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: This may be the most exciting game of the day! Both teams have offenses that are working well, and both are coming off big wins. Surprisingly, the Chargers defense has some some spark this season, which may give them the edge in this game. They have to watch out for a late fourth quarter rally by Matt Ryan, though; "Matty Ice" is known for those. CHARGERS, 31-27
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: I'd love to say the Broncos will win this game, as I want them to be more successful with Peyton Manning than they were with Tim Tebow, but the massive defense of Houston makes that unlikely. TEXANS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Philly has won two close games, both on fourth quarter comebacks. This time, though, I like the Cards to squeak by. They are definitely the surprise team so far this season, and their defense makes it tough for their opponent. The Eagles are a bit banged up already, and that makes them vulnerable to a defense like Arizona's. CARDS, 28-27
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are finding that they can't rely on Darren McFadden, but they can't rely on anyone else on offense, either. Pittsburgh doesn't need their vaulted defense to win this game, they just need to play better offense than Oakland. STEELERS, 24-16
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: A rematch of last year's AFC Championship, and I think the outcome might be different. The Pats have sputtered a bit so far this season, and the Ravens have shown that they still have power on both sides of the ball. I think Baltimore will lead late, and a rally by the Pats will fall a bit short. RAVENS, 24-23
Monday Night Football: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson seems to have the Seahawks offense working, but its the defense that will be tested here. Expect Aaron Rodgers to air it out; another 400-yard game is possible. PACK, 35-17
NFL 2012 Week 2 power ratings
Top half of the league [Last week's power position]
1. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) [4]: Continuing their excellent defensive performances, and Frank Gore continues to run over opponents
2. Houston Texans (2-0) [6] : Preseason favorite to win the AFC is now the top team in that conference
3. San Diego Chargers (2-0) [9] : Looking good early
4. Atlanta Falcons (2-0) [11] : Matt Ryan and company outplayed Peyton Manning and the Broncos
5. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) [1] : Shocked by a fourth quarter blitz by Michael Vick
6. Green Bay Packers (1-1) [12] : Redeemed themselves with a powerful defeat of the Bears
7. Arizona Cardinals (1-1) [15] : It doesn't seem to matter who lines up under center
8. New England Patriots (1-1) [7]
9. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) [17] : Two one-point victories, but they are one of only six unbeaten teams
10. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) [21] : Huge upset of Dallas. QB Russell Wilson is looking better
11. Denver Broncos (1-1) [2]
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) [19]
13. Chicago Bears (1-1) [3]
14. Washington Redskins (1-1) [8] : RGIII looked more human than super-human
15. Detroit Lions (1-1) [14] : Had some good plays against the toughest defense
16. Minnesota Vikings (1-1) [16]
Divisional power rankings
1. NFC West [4] : This division has the top team in the league and three of the Top Ten
2. NFC North [1] : Only one team in the Top Ten, but ALL FOUR teams are in the top half of the league.
3. AFC North [6] : Better week for this division; even Cleveland showed strength by scoring 27 points
4. NFC East [3] : Except for tumbling Dallas, the division has shown some strength
5. AFC East [5] : No outstanding team, but no terrible team, either
6. AFC West [2] : Two teams with 0-2 records drag this division down
7. NFC South [7] : Three teams in the lower half of the league hurts
8. AFC South [8] : Like the West, this division also has two 0-2 teams, plus a 1-1 Colts team that still hasn't looked sharp
1. San Francisco 49ers (2-0) [4]: Continuing their excellent defensive performances, and Frank Gore continues to run over opponents
2. Houston Texans (2-0) [6] : Preseason favorite to win the AFC is now the top team in that conference
3. San Diego Chargers (2-0) [9] : Looking good early
4. Atlanta Falcons (2-0) [11] : Matt Ryan and company outplayed Peyton Manning and the Broncos
5. Baltimore Ravens (1-1) [1] : Shocked by a fourth quarter blitz by Michael Vick
6. Green Bay Packers (1-1) [12] : Redeemed themselves with a powerful defeat of the Bears
7. Arizona Cardinals (1-1) [15] : It doesn't seem to matter who lines up under center
8. New England Patriots (1-1) [7]
9. Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) [17] : Two one-point victories, but they are one of only six unbeaten teams
10. Seattle Seahawks (1-1) [21] : Huge upset of Dallas. QB Russell Wilson is looking better
11. Denver Broncos (1-1) [2]
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) [19]
13. Chicago Bears (1-1) [3]
14. Washington Redskins (1-1) [8] : RGIII looked more human than super-human
15. Detroit Lions (1-1) [14] : Had some good plays against the toughest defense
16. Minnesota Vikings (1-1) [16]
Divisional power rankings
1. NFC West [4] : This division has the top team in the league and three of the Top Ten
2. NFC North [1] : Only one team in the Top Ten, but ALL FOUR teams are in the top half of the league.
3. AFC North [6] : Better week for this division; even Cleveland showed strength by scoring 27 points
4. NFC East [3] : Except for tumbling Dallas, the division has shown some strength
5. AFC East [5] : No outstanding team, but no terrible team, either
6. AFC West [2] : Two teams with 0-2 records drag this division down
7. NFC South [7] : Three teams in the lower half of the league hurts
8. AFC South [8] : Like the West, this division also has two 0-2 teams, plus a 1-1 Colts team that still hasn't looked sharp
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
NCAA 2012 Week 4 picks
There were fewer upsets last week, but some of them were significant. Two teams lost places on the Top 25 due to losses: Pitt overcame an atrocious 0-2 start to beat Virginia Tech and remove them from Top 25 contention. BYU fell to Utah, and fell off the Top 25. Two other upsets sent teams plunging down the Top 25. Missouri squeaked by Arizona State to reduce their positions, and USC fell ten spots by falling to Stanford. Within the Big Ten, we had a near upset as Ohio State struggled against Cal, and an upset based on margin of victory, as Penn State crushed Navy.
Thursday Sept 20: BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos: BYU will be motivated to win after last week's loss to Utah. Furthermore, Boise State is NOT having a Boise State-type year. This game will be BYU's redemption. BYU by eleven
Friday Sept 21: Baylor Bears at Louisiana-Monroe Indians: Without RGIII Baylor is struggling, and the Indians have been a strong force against FBS teams so far this season. Believe it or not, I'm picking the upset here, and favoring the home Indians. LOUISIANA-MONROE by thirteen
Top 25
Florida Atlantic Owls at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Another opportunity for the Tide to rack up a huge margin of victory. BAMA by 36
#2 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers: Auburn has been struggling mightily this season, but this battle always brings out the most in each team. Statistically, LSU should easily win, but nothing is ever easy between these two. I'll pick LSU, but it'll be closer than they'd like. LSU by nine
Michigan Wolverines at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Michigan has been improving since their opening loss to Alabama, but the Irish are stronger than even I gave them credit for. The Irish will dominate here, although not as much as Alabama dominated Michigan. NOTRE DAME by 13
#16 Arizona Wildcats at #4 Oregon Ducks: Arizona has a good offense, but Oregon has one of the quickest. The Ducks have a decent defense, too, so they are dangerous on both sides of the ball. Arizona will battle, but the Ducks will prevail, and will have a tremendous fourth quarter after exhausting the Wildcats. OREGON by 14
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Vandy started the season well, but this is typically their bane -- the start of SEC play. Georgia is a powerful team this year, which makes matters even worse for the Commodores. GEORGIA by 17
Missouri Tigers at #8 South Carolina Gamecocks: Missouri gave Arizona State fits, and South Carolina has a history of faltering against feisty and tough opponents. The Gamecocks have been getting better at that, but Missouri will keep it dangerously close. SOUTH CAROLINA by four
UAB Blazers at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes won't find this opponent as tough as Cal, so they get a chance to win a big game before Big Ten play begins. OHIO STATE by 19
#12 Kansas State Wildcats at #19 Oklahoma Sooners: K-State has proven that they are for real, after their dismantling of Miami, but the Sooners had an extra week to prepare for this game. I think that will give them an edge. OKLAHOMA by three
California Golden Bears at #13 USC Trojans: Cal gave Ohio State a scare last week, and they are hoping to continue where Stanford left off, and beat the Trojans. I don't think they'll be able to do that, mainly because USC rarely loses twice in a row, but Cal will make it as tough as they did against Ohio State. USC by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #14 Florida Gators: Florida isn't as strong as previous years, but they have the defense to slow the Wildcats. FLORIDA by ten
Oregon State Beavers at #15 UCLA Bruins: Oregon State has a nasty habit of upsetting at least one Pac-12 opponent each season. Could UCLA be their victim? I don't think so. The upset usually occurs at home, and the Bruins have definitely stepped up from last season's 6-7 debacle. UCLA by six
Maryland Terrapins at #18 West Virginia Mountaineers: Maryland is good, but West Virginia is better. Like many teams, the Mountaineers were lackluster in Week One, but you can't say that about them now. WEST VIRGINIA by 14
Idaho State Bengals (FCS) at Nebraska Cornhuskers: One of the few FBS v FCS games this week, this one won't be an upset. NEBRASKA by lots
#21 Louisville Cardinals at Florida International Golden Panthers: Sun Belt teams have played other FBS teams pretty tough so far this season, but winning has been difficult. I think Louisville will win this one, but FIU may keep it closer than Cardinals fans will find comfortable. LOUISVILLE by six
Utah Utes at #22 Arizona State Sun Devils: After one upset, Utah is looking for another. They also want to redeem themselves for a terrible Pac-12 season last year. Utah joined the conference believing they could compete with some of the best teams of the conference, and they were manhandled. An upset against Arizona State would start to redeem them. I'm not sure they can do it, but they'll put a scare into the Sun Devils. ARIZONA STATE by four
#23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Arkansas Razorbacks: Despite preseason expectations, Arkansas has proven to be less than effective. They couldn't score a point against Alabama, they allowed FCS Jacksonville State to score 24 points, and they fell to upset-minded Louisiana-Monroe. Rutgers should run all over them. RUTGERS by eleven
Eastern Michigan Eagles at #24 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans need a strong victory to wipe away the bitter taste of last week's defeat, and this game should do that well. While MAC teams often play Big Ten teams tough, Eastern Michigan isn't a strong team, and the Spartans have something to prove. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
Norfolk State Spartans (FCS) at #25 Ohio Bobcats: Ohio will remain the only unbeaten team in the MAC as they clean up in this game. OHIO by 27
Big Ten
UTEP Miners at Wisconsin Badgers: UTEP has a good line, so I'm not sure Monte Ball will get going in this game, either. His Heisman campaign may be effectively negated after this week. Still, the Badgers have enough tools to win this game, albeit not comfortably. WISCONSIN by six
Central Michigan Chippewas at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa has to worry that they will lose this game. MAC teams play Big Ten teams hard, and Iowa has not been doing so well. I'll pick Iowa, mainly because they are at home, but watch for the upset here. IOWA by three
South Dakota Coyotes (FCS) at Northwestern Wildcats: South Dakota is a strong FCS team, but I don't see the upset happening. Northwestern doesn't win by much, but they find the way to win. NORTHWESTERN by six
Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State seemed to start clicking last week against Navy. Both the offense and defense started understanding who they were playing with, and they started looking like the Nittany Lions of old. That's bad news for the Owls, who are struggling under a tough season. PENN STATE by 17
Syracuse Orange at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Syracuse lost to Northwestern by only one point and scored 29 points against the Trojans defense. Minnesota has their hands full in this game and could find themselves with a loss. I'll pick the Gophers, but this game will be tight. MINNESOTA by two
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini: The unbeaten Bulldogs will give the Illini trouble, especially since their offense is still coming together. Nathan Scheelhaase and four other starters (three on offense, one on defense) are unlikely to be ready to play on Saturday, leaving much of the second team to battle the Bulldogs. The Illini seem to play a bit better at home, so I'll give them a thin edge, but things look tough for my Alma Mater. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest:
Virginia Cavaliers at TCU Horned Frogs: The Frogs have played only one FBS opponent, so they are still a bit hard to predict. However, they seem to have enough power to get past Virginia. TCU by 14
Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech may have lost to Virginia Tech, but their great game against Virginia makes them a Top 25 contender. Miami's opening week victory over Boston College no longer looks so impressive, and getting slaughtered by Kansas State didn't help. I have to give the edge to Georgia Tech. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams: Colorado State has been terrible, which will help the Aggies start 3-1. UTAH STATE by 20
South Alabama Jaguars at Mississippi State Bulldogs: South Alabama is not enjoying its first season in FBS, while the Bulldogs are looking to regain their Top 25 standing. I'm not sure they'll make the Top 25, but a victory is clear. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 34
San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs: The Spartans have started off well this season, while the Aztecs got buried by Washington. That's not a stellar recommendation for victory. SAN JOSE STATE by nine
FCS Game of the Week: Florida A&M Rattlers at Delaware State Hornets: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Despite a 1-2 record, Delaware State is a good team. Good enough to beat Florida A&M, who also has a 1-2 record, will depend on consistency. In none of their games can they sustain pressure throughout the whole game. If they stumble here, they'll lose. FLORIDA A&M by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: #11 Clemson Tigers at #10 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State proved their power last week with a powerful 52-0 win over Wake Forest. Clemson has been battling more and tougher FBS teams. This will be a tremendous battle. Lead changes should be common, and nobody will get more than a ten point lead. In the end, I think the team that plays more consistent ball will win, and seems like Clemson to me. CLEMSON by three
Thursday Sept 20: BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos: BYU will be motivated to win after last week's loss to Utah. Furthermore, Boise State is NOT having a Boise State-type year. This game will be BYU's redemption. BYU by eleven
Friday Sept 21: Baylor Bears at Louisiana-Monroe Indians: Without RGIII Baylor is struggling, and the Indians have been a strong force against FBS teams so far this season. Believe it or not, I'm picking the upset here, and favoring the home Indians. LOUISIANA-MONROE by thirteen
Top 25
Florida Atlantic Owls at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Another opportunity for the Tide to rack up a huge margin of victory. BAMA by 36
#2 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers: Auburn has been struggling mightily this season, but this battle always brings out the most in each team. Statistically, LSU should easily win, but nothing is ever easy between these two. I'll pick LSU, but it'll be closer than they'd like. LSU by nine
Michigan Wolverines at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Michigan has been improving since their opening loss to Alabama, but the Irish are stronger than even I gave them credit for. The Irish will dominate here, although not as much as Alabama dominated Michigan. NOTRE DAME by 13
#16 Arizona Wildcats at #4 Oregon Ducks: Arizona has a good offense, but Oregon has one of the quickest. The Ducks have a decent defense, too, so they are dangerous on both sides of the ball. Arizona will battle, but the Ducks will prevail, and will have a tremendous fourth quarter after exhausting the Wildcats. OREGON by 14
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Vandy started the season well, but this is typically their bane -- the start of SEC play. Georgia is a powerful team this year, which makes matters even worse for the Commodores. GEORGIA by 17
Missouri Tigers at #8 South Carolina Gamecocks: Missouri gave Arizona State fits, and South Carolina has a history of faltering against feisty and tough opponents. The Gamecocks have been getting better at that, but Missouri will keep it dangerously close. SOUTH CAROLINA by four
UAB Blazers at #9 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes won't find this opponent as tough as Cal, so they get a chance to win a big game before Big Ten play begins. OHIO STATE by 19
#12 Kansas State Wildcats at #19 Oklahoma Sooners: K-State has proven that they are for real, after their dismantling of Miami, but the Sooners had an extra week to prepare for this game. I think that will give them an edge. OKLAHOMA by three
California Golden Bears at #13 USC Trojans: Cal gave Ohio State a scare last week, and they are hoping to continue where Stanford left off, and beat the Trojans. I don't think they'll be able to do that, mainly because USC rarely loses twice in a row, but Cal will make it as tough as they did against Ohio State. USC by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #14 Florida Gators: Florida isn't as strong as previous years, but they have the defense to slow the Wildcats. FLORIDA by ten
Oregon State Beavers at #15 UCLA Bruins: Oregon State has a nasty habit of upsetting at least one Pac-12 opponent each season. Could UCLA be their victim? I don't think so. The upset usually occurs at home, and the Bruins have definitely stepped up from last season's 6-7 debacle. UCLA by six
Maryland Terrapins at #18 West Virginia Mountaineers: Maryland is good, but West Virginia is better. Like many teams, the Mountaineers were lackluster in Week One, but you can't say that about them now. WEST VIRGINIA by 14
Idaho State Bengals (FCS) at Nebraska Cornhuskers: One of the few FBS v FCS games this week, this one won't be an upset. NEBRASKA by lots
#21 Louisville Cardinals at Florida International Golden Panthers: Sun Belt teams have played other FBS teams pretty tough so far this season, but winning has been difficult. I think Louisville will win this one, but FIU may keep it closer than Cardinals fans will find comfortable. LOUISVILLE by six
Utah Utes at #22 Arizona State Sun Devils: After one upset, Utah is looking for another. They also want to redeem themselves for a terrible Pac-12 season last year. Utah joined the conference believing they could compete with some of the best teams of the conference, and they were manhandled. An upset against Arizona State would start to redeem them. I'm not sure they can do it, but they'll put a scare into the Sun Devils. ARIZONA STATE by four
#23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Arkansas Razorbacks: Despite preseason expectations, Arkansas has proven to be less than effective. They couldn't score a point against Alabama, they allowed FCS Jacksonville State to score 24 points, and they fell to upset-minded Louisiana-Monroe. Rutgers should run all over them. RUTGERS by eleven
Eastern Michigan Eagles at #24 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans need a strong victory to wipe away the bitter taste of last week's defeat, and this game should do that well. While MAC teams often play Big Ten teams tough, Eastern Michigan isn't a strong team, and the Spartans have something to prove. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
Norfolk State Spartans (FCS) at #25 Ohio Bobcats: Ohio will remain the only unbeaten team in the MAC as they clean up in this game. OHIO by 27
Big Ten
UTEP Miners at Wisconsin Badgers: UTEP has a good line, so I'm not sure Monte Ball will get going in this game, either. His Heisman campaign may be effectively negated after this week. Still, the Badgers have enough tools to win this game, albeit not comfortably. WISCONSIN by six
Central Michigan Chippewas at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa has to worry that they will lose this game. MAC teams play Big Ten teams hard, and Iowa has not been doing so well. I'll pick Iowa, mainly because they are at home, but watch for the upset here. IOWA by three
South Dakota Coyotes (FCS) at Northwestern Wildcats: South Dakota is a strong FCS team, but I don't see the upset happening. Northwestern doesn't win by much, but they find the way to win. NORTHWESTERN by six
Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State seemed to start clicking last week against Navy. Both the offense and defense started understanding who they were playing with, and they started looking like the Nittany Lions of old. That's bad news for the Owls, who are struggling under a tough season. PENN STATE by 17
Syracuse Orange at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Syracuse lost to Northwestern by only one point and scored 29 points against the Trojans defense. Minnesota has their hands full in this game and could find themselves with a loss. I'll pick the Gophers, but this game will be tight. MINNESOTA by two
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini: The unbeaten Bulldogs will give the Illini trouble, especially since their offense is still coming together. Nathan Scheelhaase and four other starters (three on offense, one on defense) are unlikely to be ready to play on Saturday, leaving much of the second team to battle the Bulldogs. The Illini seem to play a bit better at home, so I'll give them a thin edge, but things look tough for my Alma Mater. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest:
Virginia Cavaliers at TCU Horned Frogs: The Frogs have played only one FBS opponent, so they are still a bit hard to predict. However, they seem to have enough power to get past Virginia. TCU by 14
Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech may have lost to Virginia Tech, but their great game against Virginia makes them a Top 25 contender. Miami's opening week victory over Boston College no longer looks so impressive, and getting slaughtered by Kansas State didn't help. I have to give the edge to Georgia Tech. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams: Colorado State has been terrible, which will help the Aggies start 3-1. UTAH STATE by 20
South Alabama Jaguars at Mississippi State Bulldogs: South Alabama is not enjoying its first season in FBS, while the Bulldogs are looking to regain their Top 25 standing. I'm not sure they'll make the Top 25, but a victory is clear. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 34
San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs: The Spartans have started off well this season, while the Aztecs got buried by Washington. That's not a stellar recommendation for victory. SAN JOSE STATE by nine
FCS Game of the Week: Florida A&M Rattlers at Delaware State Hornets: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Despite a 1-2 record, Delaware State is a good team. Good enough to beat Florida A&M, who also has a 1-2 record, will depend on consistency. In none of their games can they sustain pressure throughout the whole game. If they stumble here, they'll lose. FLORIDA A&M by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: #11 Clemson Tigers at #10 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State proved their power last week with a powerful 52-0 win over Wake Forest. Clemson has been battling more and tougher FBS teams. This will be a tremendous battle. Lead changes should be common, and nobody will get more than a ten point lead. In the end, I think the team that plays more consistent ball will win, and seems like Clemson to me. CLEMSON by three
Sunday, September 16, 2012
NCAA Top 25 Week 3
Some interesting upsets, as well as impressive wins by teams who had not accumulated impressive wins against FBS teams, has shaken up the Top 25, although not as much as often happens in this week.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1] : The Tide continues to roll and crush all competition
2. LSU Tigers (3-0) [2] : Huge gap between #2 and #3
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) [6] : Their tough schedule is usually an obstacle, but now it helps them in strength of schedule
4. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) [7] : They are definitely the most impressive SEC East team so far
6. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [11] : Leader among the EIGHT unbeaten teams in the conference - the most of any conference
7. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [13] : They beat USC without Andrew Luck
8. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0) [12] : Lots of strong teams in the SEC, so conference play will shake up the Top Ten
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) [4] : Poor performance this week, but performances get dim after this position
10. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) [NR] : They slaughtered Wake Forest; maybe playing FCS teams these past two weeks kept them rested
11. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [9]
12. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) [8] : Offense is good, but defense needs some work
13. USC Trojans (2-1) [3] : Wonder if Matt Barkley is starting to regret his decision to skip the NFL?
14. Florida Gators (3-0) [17] : They came back strong in the second half
15. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [16] : UCLA has looked good, but they haven't played a really tough opponent yet
16. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [15]
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) [18]
18. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0) [NR] : They enter on a bye due to a clerical error last week
19. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) [19]
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1) [22]
21. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) [20] : Best looking Big East team
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1) [14] : Tough loss to Missouri
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) [NR] : Two Big East teams sit in the Top 25 together for the first time in years!
24. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) [10] : Terrible performance against Notre Dame, but defense tightened in the second half, until the game was obviously lost and they decided to rest for next week
25. Ohio Bobcats (3-0) [23] : To be honest, I did not expect the Bobcats to remain in the Top 25, but upset losses to Virginia Tech and BYU left some room
On the Edge: Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0), TCU Horned Frogs (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), UCF Golden Knights (2-1), Northwestern Wildcats (3-0), Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-1), Texas A&M Aggies (1-1), San Jose State Spartans (2-1)
Dropped off: Tennessee Volunteers [#21], BYU Cougars [#24], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#25]
Big Ten Report
Although only two teams lost, it was again not a stellar week for the conference. Division leaders looked weak, as Ohio State almost got too complacent against Cal and Michigan State couldn't get the offense rolling against the Irish. Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa until they found life in the fourth quarter, Wisconsin again couldn't utilize Monte Ball and nearly lost to Utah State, and Indiana lost to Ball State. The good news is that Penn State looked strong in their first victory, a rout of the Navy Midshipmen.
LEGENDS Division:
1. Michigan Wolverines (2-1) : They continue to improve after the disaster against Alabama, which is now looking like the normal result of playing the Tide this season.
2. Northwestern Wildcats (3-0) : They don't win pretty, but they find ways to win
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1) : Their defense is looking better, and their offense is already the best in the conference
4. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) : If QB Andrew Maxwell can improve, this team will be dangerous
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) : They win close games, which is important
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) : This Jekyll-Hyde team needs to find an identity
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) : Urban Meyer seems to be destroying what made this team great in order to turn them into a reflection of his old Florida Gators. I've never seen the Buckeye defense, their hallmark, miss so many tackles and fail to pursue runners. TWO Cal touchdowns should never have happened. The fact that they are atop the division is more a testament of how bad the other teams are playing.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1) : Their performance against Notre Dame doesn't look so bad now
3. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1) : Missouri's defeat of Arizona State hurts, but the Illini offense found some life this week as Reilly O'Toole was finally connecting with his receivers. Plus, Nathan Scheelhaase may be back for next week's game against unbeaten Louisiana Tech.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-2) : They played very well against Navy, so perhaps they are starting to adjust to the loss of 14 projected starters.
5. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) : They need to get Monte Ball involved and successful.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (2-1) : Ball State may be pretty good this season, but Indiana was too inconsistent this week. If they find that consistency, though, and Monte Ball continues not to produce, they can leap up in the division.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1] : The Tide continues to roll and crush all competition
2. LSU Tigers (3-0) [2] : Huge gap between #2 and #3
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0) [6] : Their tough schedule is usually an obstacle, but now it helps them in strength of schedule
4. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) [7] : They are definitely the most impressive SEC East team so far
6. Texas Longhorns (3-0) [11] : Leader among the EIGHT unbeaten teams in the conference - the most of any conference
7. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [13] : They beat USC without Andrew Luck
8. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0) [12] : Lots of strong teams in the SEC, so conference play will shake up the Top Ten
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) [4] : Poor performance this week, but performances get dim after this position
10. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) [NR] : They slaughtered Wake Forest; maybe playing FCS teams these past two weeks kept them rested
11. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [9]
12. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) [8] : Offense is good, but defense needs some work
13. USC Trojans (2-1) [3] : Wonder if Matt Barkley is starting to regret his decision to skip the NFL?
14. Florida Gators (3-0) [17] : They came back strong in the second half
15. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [16] : UCLA has looked good, but they haven't played a really tough opponent yet
16. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [15]
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) [18]
18. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0) [NR] : They enter on a bye due to a clerical error last week
19. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) [19]
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1) [22]
21. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) [20] : Best looking Big East team
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-1) [14] : Tough loss to Missouri
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) [NR] : Two Big East teams sit in the Top 25 together for the first time in years!
24. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) [10] : Terrible performance against Notre Dame, but defense tightened in the second half, until the game was obviously lost and they decided to rest for next week
25. Ohio Bobcats (3-0) [23] : To be honest, I did not expect the Bobcats to remain in the Top 25, but upset losses to Virginia Tech and BYU left some room
On the Edge: Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0), TCU Horned Frogs (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), UCF Golden Knights (2-1), Northwestern Wildcats (3-0), Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-1), Texas A&M Aggies (1-1), San Jose State Spartans (2-1)
Dropped off: Tennessee Volunteers [#21], BYU Cougars [#24], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#25]
Big Ten Report
Although only two teams lost, it was again not a stellar week for the conference. Division leaders looked weak, as Ohio State almost got too complacent against Cal and Michigan State couldn't get the offense rolling against the Irish. Iowa nearly lost to Northern Iowa until they found life in the fourth quarter, Wisconsin again couldn't utilize Monte Ball and nearly lost to Utah State, and Indiana lost to Ball State. The good news is that Penn State looked strong in their first victory, a rout of the Navy Midshipmen.
LEGENDS Division:
1. Michigan Wolverines (2-1) : They continue to improve after the disaster against Alabama, which is now looking like the normal result of playing the Tide this season.
2. Northwestern Wildcats (3-0) : They don't win pretty, but they find ways to win
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-1) : Their defense is looking better, and their offense is already the best in the conference
4. Michigan State Spartans (2-1) : If QB Andrew Maxwell can improve, this team will be dangerous
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) : They win close games, which is important
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) : This Jekyll-Hyde team needs to find an identity
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) : Urban Meyer seems to be destroying what made this team great in order to turn them into a reflection of his old Florida Gators. I've never seen the Buckeye defense, their hallmark, miss so many tackles and fail to pursue runners. TWO Cal touchdowns should never have happened. The fact that they are atop the division is more a testament of how bad the other teams are playing.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (2-1) : Their performance against Notre Dame doesn't look so bad now
3. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1) : Missouri's defeat of Arizona State hurts, but the Illini offense found some life this week as Reilly O'Toole was finally connecting with his receivers. Plus, Nathan Scheelhaase may be back for next week's game against unbeaten Louisiana Tech.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-2) : They played very well against Navy, so perhaps they are starting to adjust to the loss of 14 projected starters.
5. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) : They need to get Monte Ball involved and successful.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (2-1) : Ball State may be pretty good this season, but Indiana was too inconsistent this week. If they find that consistency, though, and Monte Ball continues not to produce, they can leap up in the division.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 2 picks
The arrangement of the NFL Network to have a Thursday night game every week means that I have to track a game online every Thursday evening, as I won't pay the outrageous price for NFL Network on pay-on-demand cable.
Thursday game: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay struggled under a tough defense last week, and the Bears have a tough defense. However, the Pack knows the Bears very well, and may know where some of the defensive holes are. The Bears' offense has really stepped up this season, though, so can the Bears outscore the Pack? I'll pick the Pack as they have a history against Chicago, but this will be a close game, and could go the Bears' way. PACK, 24-23
Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: This will be an easy win for the Pats. The Cards' defense isn't strong, and Kolb takes over for Skelton at the helm of the Cards. Make no mistake, Kolb is good, but they have different enough approaches that it requires a shift in the offensive scheme. Switching between the two didn't work in preseason, so the switch to Kolb will be too much of an adjustment, especially when they are battling the high-powered Pats offense. PATS, 31-13
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: No Vick, tough Ravens defense, and a fast-paced Baltimore squad on both sides of the ball. This isn't a tough pick. RAVENS, 24-13
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Cleveland has some good plays last week, but Cincy's offense is just too good for them to keep up. BENGALS, 28-16
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville had an impressive performance last week, but they played Minnesota. This the Texans' defense they face this week, one of the toughest in the AFC. They will struggle mightily against such opposition. TEXANS, 27-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: This is a tough game to pick. When Buffalo is "on", they are great. But they are just as likely to have a bad game as a good game, which makes them tough to predict. KC hasn't corrected all of their flaws, though, so I think Buffalo will win this game regardless. As their lead remains, that might boost the Bills enough to have a good game, no matter how it starts. BILLS, 30-20
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: I think it is telling that the biggest new story about the Vikings this week was an argument between two FORMER quarterbacks: Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb. That tells me that there isn't much to discuss about the current team. I couldn't agree more. Andrew Luck struggled against the Bears, but the Vikings don't have nearly the quality defense that the Bears do. After that week, Luck will want to have a good week, and I think the Vikings will provide that. COLTS, 31-23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Despite the clearance of "Bounty-gate" players to play last week's game, the Saints defense could not stop RGIII and the Redskins. Now they face Cam Newton and Panthers, an equally challenging situation. The Saints benefit? The Panthers' defense isn't as good as the Redskins, so the Saints will score, too. Given the fact that this might become an offensive shootout, I favor Drew Brees in those situations. SAINTS, 34-30
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill may have won the quarterback spot after preseason, but he didn't show up well last week. The Raiders have a history of pestering quarterbacks, which will make this week difficult for Tannehill. Palmer looked okay on Monday night; better than McFadden much of the time. I think that'll continue for a while. RAIDERS, 23-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Giants: This game turned out harder to pick than I originally thought! The Bucs defense looked good last week, and the Giants offense stumbled. The Giants seem to do much better in the postseason than they do during the regular season. Can they reach the postseason if they start 0-2? Perhaps, and I think they'd better be making plans on how to do that. BUCS, 17-16
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: The Cowboys showed some power last week. This week will determine whether they stretched themselves against a divisional opponent or if it was an indication that they have plugged some of the holes in their game. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, especially since Seattle is having problems. COWBOYS, 20-16
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers defense was limited last week due to players sitting out from the high altitude. They also had to face a rejuvenated Peyton Manning with something to prove. This week they get a Jets squad with no identity (as they switch between quarterbacks and offensive schemes) and a defense angry at themselves, despite a 20-point victory last week. This is the type of situation Pittsburgh loves to exploit. STEELERS, 21-16
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers showed on Monday that they have done some work over the off-season. The offense moved smoothly, and even the defense made life difficult for Darren McFadden. I think the Chargers will continue this role against a clearly struggling Seahawks teams. CHARGERS, 27-13
Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams: RGIII is leading a hot Redskins offense and the defense is tight. That combination makes things hard for the Rams. REDSKINS, 31-16
Sunday night: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have already taken down one dynamic NFC North offense. This week they get to do it again. 49ERS, 24-20
Monday Night Foorball: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: This will be an exciting offensive showdown. Both Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan have plenty of tools. This game could total over 1000 yards between the two teams. I'll favor Denver, but this game may come down to who holds the ball last. BRONCOS, 31-24
Thursday game: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay struggled under a tough defense last week, and the Bears have a tough defense. However, the Pack knows the Bears very well, and may know where some of the defensive holes are. The Bears' offense has really stepped up this season, though, so can the Bears outscore the Pack? I'll pick the Pack as they have a history against Chicago, but this will be a close game, and could go the Bears' way. PACK, 24-23
Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: This will be an easy win for the Pats. The Cards' defense isn't strong, and Kolb takes over for Skelton at the helm of the Cards. Make no mistake, Kolb is good, but they have different enough approaches that it requires a shift in the offensive scheme. Switching between the two didn't work in preseason, so the switch to Kolb will be too much of an adjustment, especially when they are battling the high-powered Pats offense. PATS, 31-13
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: No Vick, tough Ravens defense, and a fast-paced Baltimore squad on both sides of the ball. This isn't a tough pick. RAVENS, 24-13
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Cleveland has some good plays last week, but Cincy's offense is just too good for them to keep up. BENGALS, 28-16
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville had an impressive performance last week, but they played Minnesota. This the Texans' defense they face this week, one of the toughest in the AFC. They will struggle mightily against such opposition. TEXANS, 27-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: This is a tough game to pick. When Buffalo is "on", they are great. But they are just as likely to have a bad game as a good game, which makes them tough to predict. KC hasn't corrected all of their flaws, though, so I think Buffalo will win this game regardless. As their lead remains, that might boost the Bills enough to have a good game, no matter how it starts. BILLS, 30-20
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: I think it is telling that the biggest new story about the Vikings this week was an argument between two FORMER quarterbacks: Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb. That tells me that there isn't much to discuss about the current team. I couldn't agree more. Andrew Luck struggled against the Bears, but the Vikings don't have nearly the quality defense that the Bears do. After that week, Luck will want to have a good week, and I think the Vikings will provide that. COLTS, 31-23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Despite the clearance of "Bounty-gate" players to play last week's game, the Saints defense could not stop RGIII and the Redskins. Now they face Cam Newton and Panthers, an equally challenging situation. The Saints benefit? The Panthers' defense isn't as good as the Redskins, so the Saints will score, too. Given the fact that this might become an offensive shootout, I favor Drew Brees in those situations. SAINTS, 34-30
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill may have won the quarterback spot after preseason, but he didn't show up well last week. The Raiders have a history of pestering quarterbacks, which will make this week difficult for Tannehill. Palmer looked okay on Monday night; better than McFadden much of the time. I think that'll continue for a while. RAIDERS, 23-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Giants: This game turned out harder to pick than I originally thought! The Bucs defense looked good last week, and the Giants offense stumbled. The Giants seem to do much better in the postseason than they do during the regular season. Can they reach the postseason if they start 0-2? Perhaps, and I think they'd better be making plans on how to do that. BUCS, 17-16
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: The Cowboys showed some power last week. This week will determine whether they stretched themselves against a divisional opponent or if it was an indication that they have plugged some of the holes in their game. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, especially since Seattle is having problems. COWBOYS, 20-16
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers defense was limited last week due to players sitting out from the high altitude. They also had to face a rejuvenated Peyton Manning with something to prove. This week they get a Jets squad with no identity (as they switch between quarterbacks and offensive schemes) and a defense angry at themselves, despite a 20-point victory last week. This is the type of situation Pittsburgh loves to exploit. STEELERS, 21-16
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers showed on Monday that they have done some work over the off-season. The offense moved smoothly, and even the defense made life difficult for Darren McFadden. I think the Chargers will continue this role against a clearly struggling Seahawks teams. CHARGERS, 27-13
Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams: RGIII is leading a hot Redskins offense and the defense is tight. That combination makes things hard for the Rams. REDSKINS, 31-16
Sunday night: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have already taken down one dynamic NFC North offense. This week they get to do it again. 49ERS, 24-20
Monday Night Foorball: Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: This will be an exciting offensive showdown. Both Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan have plenty of tools. This game could total over 1000 yards between the two teams. I'll favor Denver, but this game may come down to who holds the ball last. BRONCOS, 31-24
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 1 Power Rankings
Post edited to remove bulleted list.
This year I have incorporated strength of opponent into my power rankings. That makes the first couple of weeks difficult, as they are based more on anticipated achievements projected from how the first team squad played in preseason. Preseason can be a poor predictor of performance, so this measure will be more accurate in later weeks.
Top half
1. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) : Strong victory against a quality divisional opponent made them the easy top team
2. Denver Broncos (1-0) : They overcame the Steelers defense and Peyton proved he's back to form
3. Chicago Bears (1-0) : They shut down the best quarterback in preseason, picking off Andrew Luck three times
4. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) : They dominated the Pack, and the offense looked pretty good, too
5. New York Jets (1-0) : A strong victory over a divisional opponent, and the offense was actually working; what an improvement over preseason
6. Houston Texans (1-0)
7. New England Patriots (1-0)
8. Washington Redskins (1-0) : RGIII had the best rookie performance of all six QBs
9. San Diego Chargers (1-0) : Embarrassed Oakland on Monday Night, which isn't easy
10. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) : Surprised the Giants and one the first NFC East showdown of the season
11. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
12. Green Bay Packers (0-1) : They may have lost, but they still looked good
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-0)
14. Detroit Lions (1-0) : Too close against the Rams
15. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) : Still won despite losing their starting QB
16. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
1. NFC North : Here's a surprise! However, the Nordic division started strong, with three victories and one impressive loser. They're also the only division to have all of their teams in the top half of the power rankings.
2. AFC West : Typically scraping the bottom, Denver's rejuvenation under Peyton Manning seems to have lifted the entire division.
3. NFC East : Three winning teams, two in the top half of the Power Rankings (and Philly at #17), and the Giants likely to improve gives this division some great power.
4. NFC West : The 49ers are strong, and the other are clustered near the middle of the pack. No bad teams so far, as both Seattle and St Louis showed strengths in their losses.
5. AFC East : This is a division of diversity -- two strong teams and two weak teams
6. AFC North : I thought this division would be better, but both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati struggled in bad losses.
7. NFC South : Despite the Saints' players being allowed to play, they still couldn't muster a victory. Carolina looked bad, and even Tampa's victory wasn't strong.
8. AFC South : Quarterback play hurt this division, as Luck, Locker, and Gabbert brought the teams down
This year I have incorporated strength of opponent into my power rankings. That makes the first couple of weeks difficult, as they are based more on anticipated achievements projected from how the first team squad played in preseason. Preseason can be a poor predictor of performance, so this measure will be more accurate in later weeks.
Top half
1. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) : Strong victory against a quality divisional opponent made them the easy top team
2. Denver Broncos (1-0) : They overcame the Steelers defense and Peyton proved he's back to form
3. Chicago Bears (1-0) : They shut down the best quarterback in preseason, picking off Andrew Luck three times
4. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) : They dominated the Pack, and the offense looked pretty good, too
5. New York Jets (1-0) : A strong victory over a divisional opponent, and the offense was actually working; what an improvement over preseason
6. Houston Texans (1-0)
7. New England Patriots (1-0)
8. Washington Redskins (1-0) : RGIII had the best rookie performance of all six QBs
9. San Diego Chargers (1-0) : Embarrassed Oakland on Monday Night, which isn't easy
10. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) : Surprised the Giants and one the first NFC East showdown of the season
11. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
12. Green Bay Packers (0-1) : They may have lost, but they still looked good
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-0)
14. Detroit Lions (1-0) : Too close against the Rams
15. Arizona Cardinals (1-0) : Still won despite losing their starting QB
16. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
1. NFC North : Here's a surprise! However, the Nordic division started strong, with three victories and one impressive loser. They're also the only division to have all of their teams in the top half of the power rankings.
2. AFC West : Typically scraping the bottom, Denver's rejuvenation under Peyton Manning seems to have lifted the entire division.
3. NFC East : Three winning teams, two in the top half of the Power Rankings (and Philly at #17), and the Giants likely to improve gives this division some great power.
4. NFC West : The 49ers are strong, and the other are clustered near the middle of the pack. No bad teams so far, as both Seattle and St Louis showed strengths in their losses.
5. AFC East : This is a division of diversity -- two strong teams and two weak teams
6. AFC North : I thought this division would be better, but both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati struggled in bad losses.
7. NFC South : Despite the Saints' players being allowed to play, they still couldn't muster a victory. Carolina looked bad, and even Tampa's victory wasn't strong.
8. AFC South : Quarterback play hurt this division, as Luck, Locker, and Gabbert brought the teams down
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
NCAA Week 3 picks
There were plenty of upsets for so early in the season. Some were FCS teams conquering FBS teams, like Sacramento State's defeat of Colorado, North Dakota State's thumping of Colorado State (wasn't a good day for the state of Colorado, was it?), and Northern Arizona's squeaker at UNLV (which weakened Minnesota's strength of schedule). The Big Ten was a major victim, with surprising losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska, both at the hands of Pac-12 teams. The Sun Belt conference was the source of upset victories, as Arkansas fell to Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana Tech outscored Houston. The Utah state rivalry heated up as Utah State beat the Utes for the first time in over fifteen years, and the SEC took a flip as Mississippi State clobbered Auburn.
Thursday, Sept 13
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls: This Big East contest could go either way. Rutgers has shown promise in the first two weeks, but South Florida hasn't been bad. It's been the Bulls offense leading the way, which is unusual for this nornally defensive-minded team. I like Rutgers' strength, but they will be playing a "they score, we score" game. RUTGERS by six
Friday, Sept 14
Washington State Cougars at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV has struggled. They coughed up the ball in their third overtime against Minnesota and then let Northern Arizona beat them. Washington State hasn't been a powerhouse, but I think they'll overpower UNLV. WASHINGTON STATE by nine
Saturday, Sept 15
Top 25:
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks: Let's face it, any team who loses to lowly Louisiana-Monroe isn't much of a threat, especially to the top team in the land. ALABAMA by 35
Idaho Vandals at #2 LSU Tigers: I'm sure that either Alabama or LSU will gain much on the strength of schedule rank with these wins, but a win is a win. LSU by 34
#3 USC Trojans at #13 Stanford Cardinal: Stanford has looked good, but without Luck, this team will be out of luck against the hot Trojans, who have it working on both sides of the ball. USC by 15
California Golden Bears at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are as strong as ever, and they have something to prove. With Urban Meyer taking the lid off them, they won't show mercy. Cal will be finished bruised and battered. OHIO STATE by 27
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (FCS) at #5 Oregon Ducks: The Golden Eagles had better be paid well for this game, because this will be a classic blowout. OREGON by over 50
Florida Atlantic Owls at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The Owls don't have a chance to win. I'd say they would do well to hold Georgia to less than 50 points. GEORGIA by 42
North Texas Mean Green at #8 Kansas State Wildcats: After slaughtering Miami last week, pummeling the not-so-Mean Green will be a relaxing effort. KANSAS STATE by 43
Furman Paladins (FCS) at #9 Clemson Tigers: The Tigers get an easy victory here as their offense rolls up the points. CLEMSON by 39
#11 Texas Longhorns at Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss has started well, but this will be their first real challenge. I don't think they'll succeed, but they will give Texas some trouble. TEXAS by fifteen
UAB Blazers at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks: South Carolina seems to have recovered from their early stumble at Vandy, and the Blazers aren't a major threat. SOUTH CAROLINA by 21
#14 Arizona State Sun Devils at Missouri Tigers: Missouri didn't do well in their first SEC conference game, while Arizona State's offense shined. This will again be an offensive show for the Sun Devils, as Missouri's defense lacks punch. ARIZONA STATE by 30
South Carolina State Bulldogs (FCS) at #15 Arizona Wildcats: Another blowout for a Top 25 team facing an FCS opponent. ARIZONA by 28
Houston Cougars at #16 UCLA Bruins: The Cougars seem rather toothless this season, which gives UCLA a break. Their defense is strong, but Houston should give UCLA's offense a chance to show some power. UCLA by 17
#17 Florida Gators at #21 Tennessee Volunteers: I would expect Florida to win this game, but Tennessee has shown some life this season and Florida hasn't been as impressive. The Vols might even lead early in the fourth quarter, but late game comebacks are a specialty of the Gators. FLORIDA by six
New Mexico Lobos at #18 Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Raiders offense will again be on display, but the Lobos should get a chance to score a bit, too. TECH by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #20 Louisville Cardinals: North Carolina hung in against Wake Forest, so they won't be an easy target. Louisville has a good offense, complemented by a good defense, so they should be able to win, but won't be a blowout. LOUISVILLE by ten
Arkansas State Red Wolves at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers get to redeem themselves after their near-miss against the Bruins. The Red Wolves can put points on the board, but their defense is weak, which will allow Nebraska to run wild. NEBRASKA by 24
#23 Ohio Bobcats at Marshall Thundering Herd: Ohio has been showing up very well, and that will continue. Marshall has been struggling, and the intense Bobcats will make things tough for them. OHIO by 17
#24 BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: Strangely, the Utes have deteriorated since joining the Pac-12 last season, and the collapse continues. BYU is riding high after two huge victories, and they should add a third to that list. BYU by 17
#25 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Troy Trojans: Defense is Troy's problem, which the Bulldogs will likely exploit for more than 40 points. MISS STATE by 28
Big Ten:
Western Michigan Broncos at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers get their first real challenge, but they might hold on to win this one. It could go into overtime, but we know that doesn't bother the Gophers. MINNESOTA by six
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini return home, where they are certainly better. Their defense will hold the Bucs to perhaps a single score, while the offense gets a chance to rebuild. Scheelhaase might be back, but I'd actually hold him back for one more week. This is an excellent opportunity to give Reilly O'Toole some field time. ILLINOIS by 24
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue gets a chance to pulverize a team to remove the bitter taste from their mouths surrounding the Notre Dame near-miss. PURDUE by 21
UMass Minutemen at Michigan Wolverines: This game was scheduled before UMass moved up to FBS, but the outcome won't be much different. Michigan is continuing to improve after their opening weekend embarrassment, and this game will serve as a testbed for some new offensive maneuvers. MICHIGAN by 27
Boston College Eagles at Northwestern Wildcats: This will be a close game, and the Wildcats have a tendency to surprise opponents in close games. I think the home team will win, but BC will provide some scary moments. NORTHWESTERN by three
Navy Midshipmen at Penn State Nittany Lions: Navy was embarrassed by Notre Dame two weeks ago, and they want a chance to restore some sense of dignity. They'll get it when they travel to Happy Valley to tackle a deleted Nittany Lions squad. Navy has a potent running attack, and the Lions' defensive line took a hit from departing students. Penn State will fight to stay in the game, but eventually the force of the Navy attack will wear them down. NAVY by 18
Northern Iowa Panthers (FCS) at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa lost to in-state rival Iowa State. They don't want to lose to another state school. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team, but the Hawkeyes, even as rough as they are this year, will prevent a second state loss in a row. IOWA by 16
Ball State Cardinals at Indiana Hoosiers: This will be Indiana's first real challenge. The Cardinals have a strong offense, and they will stretch Indiana's defense. Indiana's offense is good, too, but they have to match Ball State score to score. I'm not sure Indiana can do that. BALL STATE by eight
Utah State Aggies at Wisconsin Badgers: The Aggies are 2-0 and riding high after beating their in-state rival last week. Wisconsin needs a good win to restore some luster to a program that hasn't been able to get moving. The Aggies defense won't be able to last four quarters with the bruising Badgers, but the Aggies will take the early lead. WISCONSIN by 15
Other Games of Interest:
UConn Huskies at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland can go 3-0 after this game, which is vital. They need that momentum to carry them into their next two games, against West Virginia and Wake Forest. UConn is struggling, so they should get the win. MARYLAND by 13
Florida International Golden Panthers at UCF Golden Knights: The Knights go for the gold in this Florida battle. UCF looks good this year, while FIU has stumbled out of the gate. UCF should take this game easily. UCF by 18
James Madison Dukies (FCS) at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia's offense was on display against Marshall, but their defense was exposed. That cost them a position on the Top 25, and playing an FCS won't get them there after this week. It will continue their winning streak, however. WEST VIRGINIA by 31
Western Illinois Leathernecks (FCS) at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones are having a stellar year, starting 2-0 and defeating state rival Iowa. The 9-6 score wasn't impressive, although the win was, so the Cyclones crave more. Western Illinois is a decent FCS team, so a powerful victory helps lift their spirits for their showdown with Texas Tech. IOWA STATE by 20
FCS Game of the Week: Bucknell Bison at Delaware Blue Hens: Both of these two teams have started well and were top teams last year. Delaware has shown a bit more power, as Bucknell's victory was a two-pointer over the Marist Red Foxes. Marist is looking good this season, so the win is significant. Delaware will prove to be a tougher foe, though. DELAWARE by 14
GAME OF THE WEEK: #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #10 Michigan State Spartans: Notre Dame beat Purdue handily, but the Spartans defense is much stronger. The offense seems to have come together after their lackluster opener, so the Irish must be concerned. Michigan State has the defense to stuff them, and let their rejuvenated offense take off. MICHIGAN STATE by ten
Thursday, Sept 13
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls: This Big East contest could go either way. Rutgers has shown promise in the first two weeks, but South Florida hasn't been bad. It's been the Bulls offense leading the way, which is unusual for this nornally defensive-minded team. I like Rutgers' strength, but they will be playing a "they score, we score" game. RUTGERS by six
Friday, Sept 14
Washington State Cougars at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV has struggled. They coughed up the ball in their third overtime against Minnesota and then let Northern Arizona beat them. Washington State hasn't been a powerhouse, but I think they'll overpower UNLV. WASHINGTON STATE by nine
Saturday, Sept 15
Top 25:
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks: Let's face it, any team who loses to lowly Louisiana-Monroe isn't much of a threat, especially to the top team in the land. ALABAMA by 35
Idaho Vandals at #2 LSU Tigers: I'm sure that either Alabama or LSU will gain much on the strength of schedule rank with these wins, but a win is a win. LSU by 34
#3 USC Trojans at #13 Stanford Cardinal: Stanford has looked good, but without Luck, this team will be out of luck against the hot Trojans, who have it working on both sides of the ball. USC by 15
California Golden Bears at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are as strong as ever, and they have something to prove. With Urban Meyer taking the lid off them, they won't show mercy. Cal will be finished bruised and battered. OHIO STATE by 27
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles (FCS) at #5 Oregon Ducks: The Golden Eagles had better be paid well for this game, because this will be a classic blowout. OREGON by over 50
Florida Atlantic Owls at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The Owls don't have a chance to win. I'd say they would do well to hold Georgia to less than 50 points. GEORGIA by 42
North Texas Mean Green at #8 Kansas State Wildcats: After slaughtering Miami last week, pummeling the not-so-Mean Green will be a relaxing effort. KANSAS STATE by 43
Furman Paladins (FCS) at #9 Clemson Tigers: The Tigers get an easy victory here as their offense rolls up the points. CLEMSON by 39
#11 Texas Longhorns at Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss has started well, but this will be their first real challenge. I don't think they'll succeed, but they will give Texas some trouble. TEXAS by fifteen
UAB Blazers at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks: South Carolina seems to have recovered from their early stumble at Vandy, and the Blazers aren't a major threat. SOUTH CAROLINA by 21
#14 Arizona State Sun Devils at Missouri Tigers: Missouri didn't do well in their first SEC conference game, while Arizona State's offense shined. This will again be an offensive show for the Sun Devils, as Missouri's defense lacks punch. ARIZONA STATE by 30
South Carolina State Bulldogs (FCS) at #15 Arizona Wildcats: Another blowout for a Top 25 team facing an FCS opponent. ARIZONA by 28
Houston Cougars at #16 UCLA Bruins: The Cougars seem rather toothless this season, which gives UCLA a break. Their defense is strong, but Houston should give UCLA's offense a chance to show some power. UCLA by 17
#17 Florida Gators at #21 Tennessee Volunteers: I would expect Florida to win this game, but Tennessee has shown some life this season and Florida hasn't been as impressive. The Vols might even lead early in the fourth quarter, but late game comebacks are a specialty of the Gators. FLORIDA by six
New Mexico Lobos at #18 Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Raiders offense will again be on display, but the Lobos should get a chance to score a bit, too. TECH by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #20 Louisville Cardinals: North Carolina hung in against Wake Forest, so they won't be an easy target. Louisville has a good offense, complemented by a good defense, so they should be able to win, but won't be a blowout. LOUISVILLE by ten
Arkansas State Red Wolves at #22 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers get to redeem themselves after their near-miss against the Bruins. The Red Wolves can put points on the board, but their defense is weak, which will allow Nebraska to run wild. NEBRASKA by 24
#23 Ohio Bobcats at Marshall Thundering Herd: Ohio has been showing up very well, and that will continue. Marshall has been struggling, and the intense Bobcats will make things tough for them. OHIO by 17
#24 BYU Cougars at Utah Utes: Strangely, the Utes have deteriorated since joining the Pac-12 last season, and the collapse continues. BYU is riding high after two huge victories, and they should add a third to that list. BYU by 17
#25 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Troy Trojans: Defense is Troy's problem, which the Bulldogs will likely exploit for more than 40 points. MISS STATE by 28
Big Ten:
Western Michigan Broncos at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers get their first real challenge, but they might hold on to win this one. It could go into overtime, but we know that doesn't bother the Gophers. MINNESOTA by six
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini return home, where they are certainly better. Their defense will hold the Bucs to perhaps a single score, while the offense gets a chance to rebuild. Scheelhaase might be back, but I'd actually hold him back for one more week. This is an excellent opportunity to give Reilly O'Toole some field time. ILLINOIS by 24
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue gets a chance to pulverize a team to remove the bitter taste from their mouths surrounding the Notre Dame near-miss. PURDUE by 21
UMass Minutemen at Michigan Wolverines: This game was scheduled before UMass moved up to FBS, but the outcome won't be much different. Michigan is continuing to improve after their opening weekend embarrassment, and this game will serve as a testbed for some new offensive maneuvers. MICHIGAN by 27
Boston College Eagles at Northwestern Wildcats: This will be a close game, and the Wildcats have a tendency to surprise opponents in close games. I think the home team will win, but BC will provide some scary moments. NORTHWESTERN by three
Navy Midshipmen at Penn State Nittany Lions: Navy was embarrassed by Notre Dame two weeks ago, and they want a chance to restore some sense of dignity. They'll get it when they travel to Happy Valley to tackle a deleted Nittany Lions squad. Navy has a potent running attack, and the Lions' defensive line took a hit from departing students. Penn State will fight to stay in the game, but eventually the force of the Navy attack will wear them down. NAVY by 18
Northern Iowa Panthers (FCS) at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa lost to in-state rival Iowa State. They don't want to lose to another state school. Northern Iowa is a good FCS team, but the Hawkeyes, even as rough as they are this year, will prevent a second state loss in a row. IOWA by 16
Ball State Cardinals at Indiana Hoosiers: This will be Indiana's first real challenge. The Cardinals have a strong offense, and they will stretch Indiana's defense. Indiana's offense is good, too, but they have to match Ball State score to score. I'm not sure Indiana can do that. BALL STATE by eight
Utah State Aggies at Wisconsin Badgers: The Aggies are 2-0 and riding high after beating their in-state rival last week. Wisconsin needs a good win to restore some luster to a program that hasn't been able to get moving. The Aggies defense won't be able to last four quarters with the bruising Badgers, but the Aggies will take the early lead. WISCONSIN by 15
Other Games of Interest:
UConn Huskies at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland can go 3-0 after this game, which is vital. They need that momentum to carry them into their next two games, against West Virginia and Wake Forest. UConn is struggling, so they should get the win. MARYLAND by 13
Florida International Golden Panthers at UCF Golden Knights: The Knights go for the gold in this Florida battle. UCF looks good this year, while FIU has stumbled out of the gate. UCF should take this game easily. UCF by 18
James Madison Dukies (FCS) at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia's offense was on display against Marshall, but their defense was exposed. That cost them a position on the Top 25, and playing an FCS won't get them there after this week. It will continue their winning streak, however. WEST VIRGINIA by 31
Western Illinois Leathernecks (FCS) at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones are having a stellar year, starting 2-0 and defeating state rival Iowa. The 9-6 score wasn't impressive, although the win was, so the Cyclones crave more. Western Illinois is a decent FCS team, so a powerful victory helps lift their spirits for their showdown with Texas Tech. IOWA STATE by 20
FCS Game of the Week: Bucknell Bison at Delaware Blue Hens: Both of these two teams have started well and were top teams last year. Delaware has shown a bit more power, as Bucknell's victory was a two-pointer over the Marist Red Foxes. Marist is looking good this season, so the win is significant. Delaware will prove to be a tougher foe, though. DELAWARE by 14
GAME OF THE WEEK: #6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #10 Michigan State Spartans: Notre Dame beat Purdue handily, but the Spartans defense is much stronger. The offense seems to have come together after their lackluster opener, so the Irish must be concerned. Michigan State has the defense to stuff them, and let their rejuvenated offense take off. MICHIGAN STATE by ten
Monday, September 10, 2012
NCAA Week 2 results and Top 25
Apparently bulleted lists don't work in Blogger posts. This post has been edited to make the Top 25 rankings clear.
It's my first Top 25 of the season, so I'll remind the readers how this works. Margins of victory are only counted for games played against other FBS teams, and strength of schedule is more important than total points. Thus, some teams that likely will be in the Top 25 in the couple of weeks are not here. Florida State has the worst situation, as they are 2-0 with no ranking, as they are yet to play a FBS team.
Top 25
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : The reigning National Champ has chewed up opponents so far.
2. LSU Tigers (2-0) : Last year's National Champ runner-up is just a step down from 'Bama so far
3. USC Trojans (2-0) : Many players returned to play for their first bowl game, and it might be the BCS National Championship game
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Apparently the Buckeyes weren't so badly affected by "tatoo gate" as I thought. Urban Meyer has rejuvenated this team. They may be able to play postseason, but they will impress.
5. Oregon Ducks (2-0) : The defense is porous, but the offense looks just as powerful as last year
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) : Georgia has been in this position before, and faltered when SEC play starts. They beat Missouri in their SEC opener, so Georgia may succeed this time.
8. Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) : A dismantling of a good Miami team proved that this K-State squad might be their best in years.
9. Clemson Tigers (2-0) : Beating both Auburn and an expected strong Ball State team puts Clemson squarely in the Top Ten.
10. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : One of the few bright spots in the Big Ten on Saturday, they woke up from their lethargic state in Week 1
11. Texas Longhorns (2-0) : Strength of schedule takes a major step down outside the Top Ten, but the choice of opponents by many teams to start the season keeps things hopping. Texas' opponents will get tougher, but what we have seen from their offense should keep them in the Top 25.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) : They bounced back from a struggle against Vandy to hand East Carolina an embarrassing loss.
13. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) : It doesn't look like they miss Andrew Luck too much
14. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) : The Sun Devils spanked my Illini and proved that they might have some offensive power this season
15. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) : Destroying Oklahoma State accomplished two things: knocked the Cowboys out of Top 25 contention and put the 'Cats into the thick of it
16. UCLA Bruins (2-0) : Four in a row for the Pac-12 now gives them more Top 25 representative than any other conference, including SEC
17. Florida Gators (2-0) : Florida may fall in future weeks; weak schedules for other contenders helped place them here.
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) : Tech has played weak opponents, but a blowout offense has helped them. Like Florida, expect them to fall as competition gets stiffer
19. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : Another team who has faced weak opponents, the Sooners will likely rise, as they have looked good so far
20. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) : The Big East's only representative, Louisville has started well
21. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) : An impressive win over NC State puts Tennessee in the Top 25, but the question becomes, "For how long?"
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : They suffered an upset against UCLA, but the Cornhuskers have still shown power, and they are a rare team who faced two tough opponents to open the season.
23. Ohio Bobcats (2-0) : Ohio opened their season by beating Penn State. That is proving less impressive, as the Nittany Lions' strength rating drops by the week, but the only unbeaten MAC team gets to spend at least one week in the Top 25
24. BYU Cougars (2-0)
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0)
Ole Miss Rebels (2-0), UCF Golden Knights (1-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), Maryland Terrapins (2-0)
Big Ten Report
It was not a good week for the conference, as half the teams lost; three of those were upsets. Michigan redeemed themselves after the thrashing by Alabama, and the Spartans seemed to have corrected some of their offensive issues. Wisconsin took a step backwards, though, and Illinois' offense collapsed. The Leaders division will likely be led all season by a team that cannot play for the conference title (Ohio State), so who will represent the division? Indiana is 2-0, but that won't last. Penn State is winless, and their chances look dismal. Wisconsin and Illinois have crucial offensive issues to resolve, which puts Purdue in the drivers' seat.
Right now, ignoring records but based upon their performances in the last two weeks, here's how I see the division teams' relative strengths:
LEGENDS:
1. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : Their defense leads the way, but the offense is improving. With Ohio State on probation, likely the best Big Ten team for postseason, and the best Rose Bowl candidate.
2. Michigan Wolverines (1-1) : Northwestern and Minnesota are 2-0, but the Wolverines seem to be using the collapse against Alabama to recommit themselves to winning.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : Perhaps the best overall offense in the league right now, their defense needs work
4. Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) : They seem to specialize in close games, and they don't have the consistent defense to win too many of those, but they show promise
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-1) : Hopefully the defeat to their in-state rival will wake them up, but the Cyclones may also be better than we expected
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0) : They may be unbeaten, but needing three overtimes to beat UNLV is not a glowing endorsement.
LEADERS:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Arguably the best team in the conference
2. Purdue Boilermakers (1-1) : Notre Dame exposed some weaknesses, but they have fewer places to fix than other teams
3. Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) : They have problems to fix, but Bret Bielema is excellent at mid-season adjustments.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) : I clearly overestimated the impressions of the new offense. Reilly O'Toole can't handle the starting QB position, so they need Nathan Scheelhaase back.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-0) : They may surpass Illinois, but right now they haven't quite been impressive enough
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (0-2) : They won't finish the season winless, but they won't have a winning season
It's my first Top 25 of the season, so I'll remind the readers how this works. Margins of victory are only counted for games played against other FBS teams, and strength of schedule is more important than total points. Thus, some teams that likely will be in the Top 25 in the couple of weeks are not here. Florida State has the worst situation, as they are 2-0 with no ranking, as they are yet to play a FBS team.
Top 25
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : The reigning National Champ has chewed up opponents so far.
2. LSU Tigers (2-0) : Last year's National Champ runner-up is just a step down from 'Bama so far
3. USC Trojans (2-0) : Many players returned to play for their first bowl game, and it might be the BCS National Championship game
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Apparently the Buckeyes weren't so badly affected by "tatoo gate" as I thought. Urban Meyer has rejuvenated this team. They may be able to play postseason, but they will impress.
5. Oregon Ducks (2-0) : The defense is porous, but the offense looks just as powerful as last year
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0)
7. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) : Georgia has been in this position before, and faltered when SEC play starts. They beat Missouri in their SEC opener, so Georgia may succeed this time.
8. Kansas State Wildcats (2-0) : A dismantling of a good Miami team proved that this K-State squad might be their best in years.
9. Clemson Tigers (2-0) : Beating both Auburn and an expected strong Ball State team puts Clemson squarely in the Top Ten.
10. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : One of the few bright spots in the Big Ten on Saturday, they woke up from their lethargic state in Week 1
11. Texas Longhorns (2-0) : Strength of schedule takes a major step down outside the Top Ten, but the choice of opponents by many teams to start the season keeps things hopping. Texas' opponents will get tougher, but what we have seen from their offense should keep them in the Top 25.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) : They bounced back from a struggle against Vandy to hand East Carolina an embarrassing loss.
13. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) : It doesn't look like they miss Andrew Luck too much
14. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0) : The Sun Devils spanked my Illini and proved that they might have some offensive power this season
15. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) : Destroying Oklahoma State accomplished two things: knocked the Cowboys out of Top 25 contention and put the 'Cats into the thick of it
16. UCLA Bruins (2-0) : Four in a row for the Pac-12 now gives them more Top 25 representative than any other conference, including SEC
17. Florida Gators (2-0) : Florida may fall in future weeks; weak schedules for other contenders helped place them here.
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0) : Tech has played weak opponents, but a blowout offense has helped them. Like Florida, expect them to fall as competition gets stiffer
19. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : Another team who has faced weak opponents, the Sooners will likely rise, as they have looked good so far
20. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) : The Big East's only representative, Louisville has started well
21. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) : An impressive win over NC State puts Tennessee in the Top 25, but the question becomes, "For how long?"
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : They suffered an upset against UCLA, but the Cornhuskers have still shown power, and they are a rare team who faced two tough opponents to open the season.
23. Ohio Bobcats (2-0) : Ohio opened their season by beating Penn State. That is proving less impressive, as the Nittany Lions' strength rating drops by the week, but the only unbeaten MAC team gets to spend at least one week in the Top 25
24. BYU Cougars (2-0)
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0)
Ole Miss Rebels (2-0), UCF Golden Knights (1-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-0), Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), Maryland Terrapins (2-0)
Big Ten Report
It was not a good week for the conference, as half the teams lost; three of those were upsets. Michigan redeemed themselves after the thrashing by Alabama, and the Spartans seemed to have corrected some of their offensive issues. Wisconsin took a step backwards, though, and Illinois' offense collapsed. The Leaders division will likely be led all season by a team that cannot play for the conference title (Ohio State), so who will represent the division? Indiana is 2-0, but that won't last. Penn State is winless, and their chances look dismal. Wisconsin and Illinois have crucial offensive issues to resolve, which puts Purdue in the drivers' seat.
Right now, ignoring records but based upon their performances in the last two weeks, here's how I see the division teams' relative strengths:
LEGENDS:
1. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : Their defense leads the way, but the offense is improving. With Ohio State on probation, likely the best Big Ten team for postseason, and the best Rose Bowl candidate.
2. Michigan Wolverines (1-1) : Northwestern and Minnesota are 2-0, but the Wolverines seem to be using the collapse against Alabama to recommit themselves to winning.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-1) : Perhaps the best overall offense in the league right now, their defense needs work
4. Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) : They seem to specialize in close games, and they don't have the consistent defense to win too many of those, but they show promise
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-1) : Hopefully the defeat to their in-state rival will wake them up, but the Cyclones may also be better than we expected
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0) : They may be unbeaten, but needing three overtimes to beat UNLV is not a glowing endorsement.
LEADERS:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Arguably the best team in the conference
2. Purdue Boilermakers (1-1) : Notre Dame exposed some weaknesses, but they have fewer places to fix than other teams
3. Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) : They have problems to fix, but Bret Bielema is excellent at mid-season adjustments.
4. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-1) : I clearly overestimated the impressions of the new offense. Reilly O'Toole can't handle the starting QB position, so they need Nathan Scheelhaase back.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (2-0) : They may surpass Illinois, but right now they haven't quite been impressive enough
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (0-2) : They won't finish the season winless, but they won't have a winning season
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 1 predictions
The NFL starts tonight, so it's time for me to step into my Seer sucking suit (ok, bad joke), dust off my crystal ball, and pick this week's match-ups.
Wednesday opener: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Strangely, the reigning Super Bowl Champions have been rather quiet during the off-season, but I'm sure they don't mind that. The big news has been the overall decline of the division, meaning that any team that can consistently play well should win the division. That label describes the Giants well. GIANTS, 21-13
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: KC wasn't too impressive in the preseason. I don't think they've improved enough to make a playoff run. Atlanta can get to the playoffs, but they can't seem to win once they get there. During the regular season, though, they are a strong team, as they'll prove in this game. KC's defense is weak, giving Matt Ryan time to experiment with the new long passing scheme. FALCONS, 34-10
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Bills QB Ryan Firzpatrick just hasn't lived up to the impression of his early starts. The Bills have a thin slate of talented receivers, which means the Jets defense didn't have to prepare for too many threats. The Bills boosted their defense with Mario Williams, so this will be a low-scoring game. I suspect the Jets offense will stall, giving a chance for Tim Tebow to come in sometime in the fourth quarter and engineer another comeback, like he did so well last year with Denver. JETS, 16-13
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: Andrew Luck looked great in preseason, but he faces a tough defensive challenge with the Bears. The Colts defense is still coming together, which gives the new look Bears offense a chance to shine. BEARS, 27-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings: Two teams who will vie for the bottom of the league face off against each other. The Jags are in chaos, and the late report of Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't help. The Vikings aren't great, but they should move the ball better than Jacksonville, and that's what wins games. VIKINGS, 17-13
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: Houston has one of the strongest defenses in the league. Matt Schaub is currently healthy, so the offense is clicking, too. Miami isn't nearly so well structured, so this game will be pretty one-sided. TEXANS, 20-6
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans: The Jake Locker era begins in Tennessee, but the Brady era has proven too tough for most teams. The offensive additions in the off-season makes this offense even more potent, and Brady could add to his 5000+ passing yards from last season. Locker will take some time to get his rhythm, but by that time New England will have a 17-0 lead. PATS, 31-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The Browns have high hopes for their 28-year-old rookie, but his team faces the Steelers, who know how to handle experienced rookies (Big Ben was 25 when he joined the Steelers). The Steelers lost some punch, and the defense is starting to show their age, but they should still bother Brandon Wheeden enough to win this game. A late game run will fall short, but will demonstrate the strength of the Browns. STEELERS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Detroit Lions: The Rams defense is slightly better, but they're not ready to deal with gunslinger Matt Stafford and his slate of receivers, especially Calvin Johnson. The Rams should get some scoring in, but not enough to catch Detroit. LIONS, 34-17
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: RGIII and the Redskins offense will push a Saints defense stripped by suspensions. The defense, though, will struggle to stop the Saints offense, which is mostly intact from last season. SAINTS, 30-20
Sunday late games
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This game could go either way. The Bucs defense is strong, but slowing Cam Newton's offense is a challenge for anyone. Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense is improving, but they can't score as quickly or easily as Newton and company. Of course, the Panthers defense has holes, which will help the Bucs. In this case, I favor the Bucs defense enough that they should win, but this game could still be a Panthers win with one blown coverage play. BUCS, 20-17
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: Definitely the game of the week, this game pits two of the favorites to win the conference. Rodgers and the Packers offense will still post big numbers this year, although the strength of the 49ers defense will keep them smaller this game. The difference will be the development of the 49ers offense. I don't think they're ready for this caliber of competition. If I'm wrong, the 49ers could win. PACK, 27-17
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: Russell Wilson gets to show his stuff with Seattle. This is the perfect arrangement for him, as it mirrors Wisconsin. The Seahawks have a good offensive line, a strong runner, and receivers who run tight routes. Wilson will be right at home, and continuing where he left off after the Rose Bowl. The Cardinals have a bit of continuity, too, as replacement QB John Skelton, who finished last season, was named starting QB. Unfortunately he doesn't have the supporting cast of Wilson, so the Seahawks will conquer. SEAHAWKS, 20-13
Sunday night: Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: I don't think Peyton will quite reach his pre-injury status, but he'll be much better than Cutler, Orton, or Tebow. However, it'll take him so time to get comfortable with his new receivers. Pittsburgh's aging defense will suffer injuries and slow down, but that won't happen until later in the season. For now, they are still a defensive force that will impede Manning's establishment of rapport with his new team. STEELERS, 17-13
Monday night games
I'm clearing going to be up late, into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. If I get too tired, though, I'm happy to have my DVR.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Another highly-competitive game that could easily finish with either team winning, the Bengals look better on offense while the Ravens have a better defense. The Bengals defense isn't bad, but neither is the Ravens when Flacco is on target. He can be flustered, though. If the Bengals rush defense does so, Cincy will win. This early in the season, though, I like Flacco staying focused long enough to win. RAVENS, 20-17
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: Oakland still finds themselves in a quarterback mess. Darren McFadden cannot carry their offense enough to match San Diego score for score, and the Raiders defense can't slow them enough. Oakland is tough on Monday night, especially against divisional opponents, so they have history on their side, but I'll ignore history for this one. I will make it closer than it should be. CHARGERS, 23-20
Wednesday opener: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Strangely, the reigning Super Bowl Champions have been rather quiet during the off-season, but I'm sure they don't mind that. The big news has been the overall decline of the division, meaning that any team that can consistently play well should win the division. That label describes the Giants well. GIANTS, 21-13
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs: KC wasn't too impressive in the preseason. I don't think they've improved enough to make a playoff run. Atlanta can get to the playoffs, but they can't seem to win once they get there. During the regular season, though, they are a strong team, as they'll prove in this game. KC's defense is weak, giving Matt Ryan time to experiment with the new long passing scheme. FALCONS, 34-10
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: Bills QB Ryan Firzpatrick just hasn't lived up to the impression of his early starts. The Bills have a thin slate of talented receivers, which means the Jets defense didn't have to prepare for too many threats. The Bills boosted their defense with Mario Williams, so this will be a low-scoring game. I suspect the Jets offense will stall, giving a chance for Tim Tebow to come in sometime in the fourth quarter and engineer another comeback, like he did so well last year with Denver. JETS, 16-13
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: Andrew Luck looked great in preseason, but he faces a tough defensive challenge with the Bears. The Colts defense is still coming together, which gives the new look Bears offense a chance to shine. BEARS, 27-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings: Two teams who will vie for the bottom of the league face off against each other. The Jags are in chaos, and the late report of Maurice Jones-Drew doesn't help. The Vikings aren't great, but they should move the ball better than Jacksonville, and that's what wins games. VIKINGS, 17-13
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: Houston has one of the strongest defenses in the league. Matt Schaub is currently healthy, so the offense is clicking, too. Miami isn't nearly so well structured, so this game will be pretty one-sided. TEXANS, 20-6
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans: The Jake Locker era begins in Tennessee, but the Brady era has proven too tough for most teams. The offensive additions in the off-season makes this offense even more potent, and Brady could add to his 5000+ passing yards from last season. Locker will take some time to get his rhythm, but by that time New England will have a 17-0 lead. PATS, 31-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The Browns have high hopes for their 28-year-old rookie, but his team faces the Steelers, who know how to handle experienced rookies (Big Ben was 25 when he joined the Steelers). The Steelers lost some punch, and the defense is starting to show their age, but they should still bother Brandon Wheeden enough to win this game. A late game run will fall short, but will demonstrate the strength of the Browns. STEELERS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Detroit Lions: The Rams defense is slightly better, but they're not ready to deal with gunslinger Matt Stafford and his slate of receivers, especially Calvin Johnson. The Rams should get some scoring in, but not enough to catch Detroit. LIONS, 34-17
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: RGIII and the Redskins offense will push a Saints defense stripped by suspensions. The defense, though, will struggle to stop the Saints offense, which is mostly intact from last season. SAINTS, 30-20
Sunday late games
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This game could go either way. The Bucs defense is strong, but slowing Cam Newton's offense is a challenge for anyone. Josh Freeman and the Bucs offense is improving, but they can't score as quickly or easily as Newton and company. Of course, the Panthers defense has holes, which will help the Bucs. In this case, I favor the Bucs defense enough that they should win, but this game could still be a Panthers win with one blown coverage play. BUCS, 20-17
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers: Definitely the game of the week, this game pits two of the favorites to win the conference. Rodgers and the Packers offense will still post big numbers this year, although the strength of the 49ers defense will keep them smaller this game. The difference will be the development of the 49ers offense. I don't think they're ready for this caliber of competition. If I'm wrong, the 49ers could win. PACK, 27-17
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: Russell Wilson gets to show his stuff with Seattle. This is the perfect arrangement for him, as it mirrors Wisconsin. The Seahawks have a good offensive line, a strong runner, and receivers who run tight routes. Wilson will be right at home, and continuing where he left off after the Rose Bowl. The Cardinals have a bit of continuity, too, as replacement QB John Skelton, who finished last season, was named starting QB. Unfortunately he doesn't have the supporting cast of Wilson, so the Seahawks will conquer. SEAHAWKS, 20-13
Sunday night: Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos: I don't think Peyton will quite reach his pre-injury status, but he'll be much better than Cutler, Orton, or Tebow. However, it'll take him so time to get comfortable with his new receivers. Pittsburgh's aging defense will suffer injuries and slow down, but that won't happen until later in the season. For now, they are still a defensive force that will impede Manning's establishment of rapport with his new team. STEELERS, 17-13
Monday night games
I'm clearing going to be up late, into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. If I get too tired, though, I'm happy to have my DVR.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Another highly-competitive game that could easily finish with either team winning, the Bengals look better on offense while the Ravens have a better defense. The Bengals defense isn't bad, but neither is the Ravens when Flacco is on target. He can be flustered, though. If the Bengals rush defense does so, Cincy will win. This early in the season, though, I like Flacco staying focused long enough to win. RAVENS, 20-17
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: Oakland still finds themselves in a quarterback mess. Darren McFadden cannot carry their offense enough to match San Diego score for score, and the Raiders defense can't slow them enough. Oakland is tough on Monday night, especially against divisional opponents, so they have history on their side, but I'll ignore history for this one. I will make it closer than it should be. CHARGERS, 23-20
NCAA 2012 Week 2 picks
Starting this year, I begin a new section for fans of the largest alumni community in the country -- the Big Ten. Each week I will analyze the performance of the twelve teams in the conference. Normally this section will appear after the Top 25, but I have no Top 25 this week, so I've included it before the picks for this week's games.
Big Ten Report
The MAC was the source of much of the competition, but we still learned some interesting things about the teams. There were a few who did better than I expected, and showed great promise. Purdue clearly stood out. I wasn't sure if the Boilermakers were ready to contend for the division title, but that might have been a underestimation. Purdue stared down Eastern Kentucky, a talented FCS team, and slaughtered them. This week against Notre Dame will truly show how strong the Boilermakers are.
I was most impressed with Ohio State. I thought the Buckeyes would sputter after the repercussions of "tattoo gate", and that they'd have to rely on their defense to win until they figured out Urban Meyer's offense. Instead, the Buckeyes ran up 59 points against Miami Ohio. I'd say Ohio State has that offense figured out.
Illinois performed as expected. Their defense was tough, and the offense found a foothold. This week will be a test, as Arizona State gave them problems last year at home. Illinois held on to win, but only by intercepting the Sun Devil quarterback late in the fourth quarter. We'll see if Illinois can prevail in Tempe.
As expected, the scandal-ravaged Nittany Lions had a tough game. They actually started better than I expected, but their depleted defense couldn't hold back a second half charge, and their offense sputtered. Minnesota was somewhat the opposite. They sputtered early, but showed life in the fourth quarter to tie the game. Their rejuvenation extended into overtime, where an interception in the third overtime sealed the victory. Nebraska also looked like they had it together.
Some teams kept things a bit too close for comfort, despite victories. Northwestern put up some points, but their defense had trouble stopping Syracuse. Yes, you read that correctly. Traditional Big East doormat Syracuse gave Northwestern everything they could handle. Iowa also won by a single point, but they were facing Northern Illinois, who is supposed to have a good season. The Hawkeyes may do well this season. Indiana engineered a win, too, but a single score victory against FCS Indiana State is not great. Of course, Indiana was projected to sit near the bottom of the conference, so it may fit fine.
Now we get to the disappointments, and they were the anticipated three top teams in the conference. Although Wisconsin won, their offense was slow, and their defense let Iowa State score three touchdowns. Perhaps the Badgers had first-week jitters, but if they don't get themselves together quickly, their lock on the Leaders division is in question. The same can be said for Michigan State's lock on the Legends division. The Spartans offense looked pathetic without Kurt Cousins. Fortunately their defense took care of an offensively-stripped Boise State team, but Michigan State needs to get their offense working quickly.
Michigan was the biggest disappointment. Granted, I didn't expect them to win, but the offense was pathetic. While they suffered from two "non-calls" in the first half, including a pass interference call before the interception where Denard Robinson hurt his shoulder, it was still a poor showing for Michigan. Perhaps Iowa has a chance to win this division after all.
Let's look at last week's upset before we examine this week's games. Most of the upsets came from FCS or just-recent FCS teams. McNeese State defeated Middle Tennessee State and Texas State (San Marcos) slaughtered a highly-touted Houston team. Duke, who is not a football power, bitch-slapped Florida International, proving the Golden Panthers' claws have been dulled and Duke may have a good year. Alabama slaughtered Michigan, which was unexpected, and Vandy gave South Carolina real problems, and the Gamecocks offense was anemic. Tennessee rolled over NC State, giving Vols fans hope that the bowl drought is over. The biggest upset, though, was probably located in Pittsburgh, as Youngstown State came to town and thoroughly embarrassed the hometown Panthers. Pitt nearly lead, and they ended up down by two scores. Things look bleak in Pittsburgh.
Games:
Thursday, Sept 6: Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats: I just said how bad Pitt looked. Would I pick them in this game? Not a chance. Cincy looks strong, and becomes an early favorite in the Big East. CINCY by fifteen
Friday, Sept 7: Utah Utes at Utah State Aggies: Utah had trouble with their Pac-12 debut last season, but they've rarely had difficulties with their in-state rival. Utah will roll. UTAH by 24
Big Ten
Central Florida Golden Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes: It looks like Ohio State is a force, which should concern both Wisconsin and Illinois. Since the Buckeyes can't compete for the conference title, though, the runner-up in the Leaders division might go to the conference title game. In the meanwhile, let's watch Ohio State wipe up opponents. OHIO STATE by 23
New Hampshire Wildcats (FCS) at Minnesota Golden Gophers: New Hampshire is a good FCS team, but if Minnesota can continue the momentum began in last week's fourth quarter, the Gophers can keep pace here. MINNESOTA by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Virginia Cavaliers: The Cavs are a decent team, and Penn State is definitely depleted, but the first half of last week gives some hope for Happy Valley fans. I think Penn State will gain take an early lead, and this time a restructured defense will hold it -- barely. PENN STATE by two
Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Purdue was impressive last week, but the Irish were more so. This will be a close game, a Purdue frequently plays Notre Dame tough, and if the game was played in Lafayette I'd pick Purdue. However, I'll give the Irish a slight edge at home. NOTRE DAME by three
Michigan State Spartans at Central Michigan Chippewas: If this was played against Western Michigan, I might pick Michigan State to lose. However, Central Michigan isn't as strong, and won't test Michigan State as much. The Spartans defense is solid, which will stymie the Chippewas. They may not score until the fourth quarter. MICHIGAN STATE by 14
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes: Prior to last week, I would have picked Iowa State. Iowa looked good, though. The Cyclones were solid against Tulsa, but I'll give a slight edge to the Hawkeyes. IOWA by two
Air Force Falcons at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan stumbled badly last week, so they have something to prove. Rival Michigan State may have further inspired them by flinging insults across Twitter. Air Force won easily against Idaho State, but most teams do. MICHIGAN by six
Indiana Hoosiers at UMass Minutemen: UMass didn't have a great welcome to FBS, shut out by UConn. I think UMass will score this week, but they will still be looking for their first win. INDIANA by ten
Wisconsin Badgers at Oregon State Beavers: Oregon State had a bye last week, so we don't yet know what they are capable of doing. Wisconsin was pedestrian last week, but that might as a wake-up call to them. Expect Wisconsin to racquet it up for this game. WISCONSIN by ten
Nebraska Cornhuskers at UCLA Bruins: The Bruins slaughtered Rice last week, but Nebraska showed too much power. UCLA's defense isn't strong enough to stop Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers have too many tools for UCLA to beat them score-for-score. NEBRASKA by twelve
Vanderbilt Commodores at Northwestern Wildcats: In my Big Ten preview, I figured this would be an easy win for Northwestern. After last week, I've switched my pick. Vandy proved tenacious against South Carolina, and Northwestern barely eked out a one-point win over conference-trailing Syracuse. Vandy looks to have a strong team this year, and they'll prove it (if they didn't already last week) now. VANDY by six
Illinois Fighting Illini at Arizona State Sun Devils: Illinois barely won last year, and they played in Memorial Stadium. While Illinois looked good last week, the loss of A.J. Jenkins and Whitney Mercilus, both key players in last year's victory, will make it tougher. I'll pick the Illini, but don't be surprised if the Sun Devils win. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest:
Miami Hurricanes at Kansas State Wildcats: This will be quite a battle. Miami certainly had a tougher opponent last week as a warm-up, but Kansas State may have more energy because they faced an easy opponent. Either team really could win this game. With Miami's defense lined up against K-State's powerful offense, it may come down to Miami's offense to win this game. I'm still not impressed by that squad, so I have to give a nod to the home team. KANSAS STATE by two
Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Auburn lost to Clemson, but they played hard. The Tigers offense showed some life, and the defense has improved. I have to favor them against the Bulldogs, who trounced FCS Jackson State as a warm-up to this game. AUBURN by six
East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks: The Pirates will likely be down this season, yet I think they could still win this game. Vandy is having a good season, but South Carolina make too many mistakes last week to fill me with faith. Steve Spurrier may fix some of the mental mistakes that affected on-field performance, but they are still issues to address. I'll pick South Carolina, simply because they have more talent, but this is another potential upset. SOUTH CAROLINA by three
Ball State Cardinals at Clemson Tigers: After four close games predicted, this one won't be that close. Ball State looked good in the spring, and looked good last week, but Clemson is a power. CLEMSON by 14
Austin Peay Governors (FCS) at Virginia Tech Hokies: Austin Peay plays their second FBS team in a row, and the result will be the same. In fact, Austin Peay may lose by even more. VIRGINIA TECH by a ridiculous amount
USC Trojans at Syracuse Orange: Despite a loss, Syracuse has to be feeling good about themselves. That feeling should evaporate fast once play begins. USC wants to slaughter them to try to regain their Number One slot in national polls, so this game won't be pretty. USC by 31
Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon Ducks: Fresno's dismantling of FCS Weber State didn't really show what they could do. This game won't exactly be a good measure, either, as they are clearly overmatched. Oregon's offense will embarrass the defense. I'll be watching how well Fresno's offense can perform. OREGON by 35
Washington Huskies at LSU Tigers: The Huskies beat San Jose State last week, but that was poor preparation for this game. LSU showed they have power, and they'll use it against Washington. Don't expect LSU to pull their starters after they get a big lead -- that's not their style. LSU by 27
Louisiana-Monroe Indians at Arkansas Razorbacks: You know why the SEC looks good? They play teams like the Indians before conference play. It's the same reason K-State looks good, at least until they get into the heart of Big XII play. Alabama earned their stripes by beating a good (or, at least, expected to be good) Michigan team. Play that type of opponent and you get kudos. Arkansas will win this game easily, but I don't think they'll be in my first Top 25. ARKANSAS by 27
Florida A&M Rattlers (FCS) at Oklahoma Sooners: Another wipeout when a strong FBS team faces a mediocre FCS team. OKLAHOMA by a bunch
FCS Game of the Week: Montana Grizzlies at Appalachian State Mountaineers: Two tough teams battle it out. This game could go either way, but I favor Montana, who showed more power and talent last week. MONTANA by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies start SEC play against a Florida team who offense hasn't been the same since Tim Tebow left. Their offense wasn't impressive last week against Bowling Green, and their win was supported by mistakes committed by the Falcons. A&M didn't get to warm up for this game, thanks to Hurricane Isaac, but I'm sure they're ready. Their defense is used to facing teams like Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, so Florida's reduced offense will face a solid defense. The Gators have a decent defense also, and the wildcard in this game is the Aggies offense. It's supposed to be good, though, so I'll give an edge to the home team. Welcome to the SEC, Aggies! TEXAS A&M by three
Big Ten Report
The MAC was the source of much of the competition, but we still learned some interesting things about the teams. There were a few who did better than I expected, and showed great promise. Purdue clearly stood out. I wasn't sure if the Boilermakers were ready to contend for the division title, but that might have been a underestimation. Purdue stared down Eastern Kentucky, a talented FCS team, and slaughtered them. This week against Notre Dame will truly show how strong the Boilermakers are.
I was most impressed with Ohio State. I thought the Buckeyes would sputter after the repercussions of "tattoo gate", and that they'd have to rely on their defense to win until they figured out Urban Meyer's offense. Instead, the Buckeyes ran up 59 points against Miami Ohio. I'd say Ohio State has that offense figured out.
Illinois performed as expected. Their defense was tough, and the offense found a foothold. This week will be a test, as Arizona State gave them problems last year at home. Illinois held on to win, but only by intercepting the Sun Devil quarterback late in the fourth quarter. We'll see if Illinois can prevail in Tempe.
As expected, the scandal-ravaged Nittany Lions had a tough game. They actually started better than I expected, but their depleted defense couldn't hold back a second half charge, and their offense sputtered. Minnesota was somewhat the opposite. They sputtered early, but showed life in the fourth quarter to tie the game. Their rejuvenation extended into overtime, where an interception in the third overtime sealed the victory. Nebraska also looked like they had it together.
Some teams kept things a bit too close for comfort, despite victories. Northwestern put up some points, but their defense had trouble stopping Syracuse. Yes, you read that correctly. Traditional Big East doormat Syracuse gave Northwestern everything they could handle. Iowa also won by a single point, but they were facing Northern Illinois, who is supposed to have a good season. The Hawkeyes may do well this season. Indiana engineered a win, too, but a single score victory against FCS Indiana State is not great. Of course, Indiana was projected to sit near the bottom of the conference, so it may fit fine.
Now we get to the disappointments, and they were the anticipated three top teams in the conference. Although Wisconsin won, their offense was slow, and their defense let Iowa State score three touchdowns. Perhaps the Badgers had first-week jitters, but if they don't get themselves together quickly, their lock on the Leaders division is in question. The same can be said for Michigan State's lock on the Legends division. The Spartans offense looked pathetic without Kurt Cousins. Fortunately their defense took care of an offensively-stripped Boise State team, but Michigan State needs to get their offense working quickly.
Michigan was the biggest disappointment. Granted, I didn't expect them to win, but the offense was pathetic. While they suffered from two "non-calls" in the first half, including a pass interference call before the interception where Denard Robinson hurt his shoulder, it was still a poor showing for Michigan. Perhaps Iowa has a chance to win this division after all.
Let's look at last week's upset before we examine this week's games. Most of the upsets came from FCS or just-recent FCS teams. McNeese State defeated Middle Tennessee State and Texas State (San Marcos) slaughtered a highly-touted Houston team. Duke, who is not a football power, bitch-slapped Florida International, proving the Golden Panthers' claws have been dulled and Duke may have a good year. Alabama slaughtered Michigan, which was unexpected, and Vandy gave South Carolina real problems, and the Gamecocks offense was anemic. Tennessee rolled over NC State, giving Vols fans hope that the bowl drought is over. The biggest upset, though, was probably located in Pittsburgh, as Youngstown State came to town and thoroughly embarrassed the hometown Panthers. Pitt nearly lead, and they ended up down by two scores. Things look bleak in Pittsburgh.
Games:
Thursday, Sept 6: Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats: I just said how bad Pitt looked. Would I pick them in this game? Not a chance. Cincy looks strong, and becomes an early favorite in the Big East. CINCY by fifteen
Friday, Sept 7: Utah Utes at Utah State Aggies: Utah had trouble with their Pac-12 debut last season, but they've rarely had difficulties with their in-state rival. Utah will roll. UTAH by 24
Big Ten
Central Florida Golden Knights at Ohio State Buckeyes: It looks like Ohio State is a force, which should concern both Wisconsin and Illinois. Since the Buckeyes can't compete for the conference title, though, the runner-up in the Leaders division might go to the conference title game. In the meanwhile, let's watch Ohio State wipe up opponents. OHIO STATE by 23
New Hampshire Wildcats (FCS) at Minnesota Golden Gophers: New Hampshire is a good FCS team, but if Minnesota can continue the momentum began in last week's fourth quarter, the Gophers can keep pace here. MINNESOTA by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Virginia Cavaliers: The Cavs are a decent team, and Penn State is definitely depleted, but the first half of last week gives some hope for Happy Valley fans. I think Penn State will gain take an early lead, and this time a restructured defense will hold it -- barely. PENN STATE by two
Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Purdue was impressive last week, but the Irish were more so. This will be a close game, a Purdue frequently plays Notre Dame tough, and if the game was played in Lafayette I'd pick Purdue. However, I'll give the Irish a slight edge at home. NOTRE DAME by three
Michigan State Spartans at Central Michigan Chippewas: If this was played against Western Michigan, I might pick Michigan State to lose. However, Central Michigan isn't as strong, and won't test Michigan State as much. The Spartans defense is solid, which will stymie the Chippewas. They may not score until the fourth quarter. MICHIGAN STATE by 14
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes: Prior to last week, I would have picked Iowa State. Iowa looked good, though. The Cyclones were solid against Tulsa, but I'll give a slight edge to the Hawkeyes. IOWA by two
Air Force Falcons at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan stumbled badly last week, so they have something to prove. Rival Michigan State may have further inspired them by flinging insults across Twitter. Air Force won easily against Idaho State, but most teams do. MICHIGAN by six
Indiana Hoosiers at UMass Minutemen: UMass didn't have a great welcome to FBS, shut out by UConn. I think UMass will score this week, but they will still be looking for their first win. INDIANA by ten
Wisconsin Badgers at Oregon State Beavers: Oregon State had a bye last week, so we don't yet know what they are capable of doing. Wisconsin was pedestrian last week, but that might as a wake-up call to them. Expect Wisconsin to racquet it up for this game. WISCONSIN by ten
Nebraska Cornhuskers at UCLA Bruins: The Bruins slaughtered Rice last week, but Nebraska showed too much power. UCLA's defense isn't strong enough to stop Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers have too many tools for UCLA to beat them score-for-score. NEBRASKA by twelve
Vanderbilt Commodores at Northwestern Wildcats: In my Big Ten preview, I figured this would be an easy win for Northwestern. After last week, I've switched my pick. Vandy proved tenacious against South Carolina, and Northwestern barely eked out a one-point win over conference-trailing Syracuse. Vandy looks to have a strong team this year, and they'll prove it (if they didn't already last week) now. VANDY by six
Illinois Fighting Illini at Arizona State Sun Devils: Illinois barely won last year, and they played in Memorial Stadium. While Illinois looked good last week, the loss of A.J. Jenkins and Whitney Mercilus, both key players in last year's victory, will make it tougher. I'll pick the Illini, but don't be surprised if the Sun Devils win. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest:
Miami Hurricanes at Kansas State Wildcats: This will be quite a battle. Miami certainly had a tougher opponent last week as a warm-up, but Kansas State may have more energy because they faced an easy opponent. Either team really could win this game. With Miami's defense lined up against K-State's powerful offense, it may come down to Miami's offense to win this game. I'm still not impressed by that squad, so I have to give a nod to the home team. KANSAS STATE by two
Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Auburn lost to Clemson, but they played hard. The Tigers offense showed some life, and the defense has improved. I have to favor them against the Bulldogs, who trounced FCS Jackson State as a warm-up to this game. AUBURN by six
East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks: The Pirates will likely be down this season, yet I think they could still win this game. Vandy is having a good season, but South Carolina make too many mistakes last week to fill me with faith. Steve Spurrier may fix some of the mental mistakes that affected on-field performance, but they are still issues to address. I'll pick South Carolina, simply because they have more talent, but this is another potential upset. SOUTH CAROLINA by three
Ball State Cardinals at Clemson Tigers: After four close games predicted, this one won't be that close. Ball State looked good in the spring, and looked good last week, but Clemson is a power. CLEMSON by 14
Austin Peay Governors (FCS) at Virginia Tech Hokies: Austin Peay plays their second FBS team in a row, and the result will be the same. In fact, Austin Peay may lose by even more. VIRGINIA TECH by a ridiculous amount
USC Trojans at Syracuse Orange: Despite a loss, Syracuse has to be feeling good about themselves. That feeling should evaporate fast once play begins. USC wants to slaughter them to try to regain their Number One slot in national polls, so this game won't be pretty. USC by 31
Fresno State Bulldogs at Oregon Ducks: Fresno's dismantling of FCS Weber State didn't really show what they could do. This game won't exactly be a good measure, either, as they are clearly overmatched. Oregon's offense will embarrass the defense. I'll be watching how well Fresno's offense can perform. OREGON by 35
Washington Huskies at LSU Tigers: The Huskies beat San Jose State last week, but that was poor preparation for this game. LSU showed they have power, and they'll use it against Washington. Don't expect LSU to pull their starters after they get a big lead -- that's not their style. LSU by 27
Louisiana-Monroe Indians at Arkansas Razorbacks: You know why the SEC looks good? They play teams like the Indians before conference play. It's the same reason K-State looks good, at least until they get into the heart of Big XII play. Alabama earned their stripes by beating a good (or, at least, expected to be good) Michigan team. Play that type of opponent and you get kudos. Arkansas will win this game easily, but I don't think they'll be in my first Top 25. ARKANSAS by 27
Florida A&M Rattlers (FCS) at Oklahoma Sooners: Another wipeout when a strong FBS team faces a mediocre FCS team. OKLAHOMA by a bunch
FCS Game of the Week: Montana Grizzlies at Appalachian State Mountaineers: Two tough teams battle it out. This game could go either way, but I favor Montana, who showed more power and talent last week. MONTANA by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies start SEC play against a Florida team who offense hasn't been the same since Tim Tebow left. Their offense wasn't impressive last week against Bowling Green, and their win was supported by mistakes committed by the Falcons. A&M didn't get to warm up for this game, thanks to Hurricane Isaac, but I'm sure they're ready. Their defense is used to facing teams like Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, so Florida's reduced offense will face a solid defense. The Gators have a decent defense also, and the wildcard in this game is the Aggies offense. It's supposed to be good, though, so I'll give an edge to the home team. Welcome to the SEC, Aggies! TEXAS A&M by three
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