This is the final entry about the 2011 NCAA Football season. I'll summarize the major bowls, rank the conference performances, and provide my final Top 25.
The first bowl was one-sided, but then we got some interesting games. I figured the bowls from Dec 21-24, those featuring Top 25 teams against non-ranked opponents, would be one-sided yawners, but two of them did not turn out that way. Tenth-ranked TCU barely held on to win against WAC winner Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss followed their shocking Conference USA title victory with a struggle against inconsistent Nevada. While the ranked teams won, we did have upsets in that streak. Marshall shocked Florida International and Sun Belt runner-up Louisiana-Lafayette beat San Diego State. The Ragin' Cajuns turned in the only victory for the Sun Belt conference.
Marshall was one of only two 6-6 teams who beat teams with a better record; Purdue was the other one. Purdue played in the Music City Bowl on Dec 27th. While most of the bowls between Dec 24 and Dec 31 were close ones, Baylor dominated the attention. The Heisman Trophy winning QB led the Bears through an offensive explosion in the Alamo Bowl. There was practically no defense and only ONE punt in the entire game. Baylor held on to win, but the Washington Huskies gave them everything they could handle. The bowls in this time range ended with the most one-sided one in this period, when 15th ranked Oklahoma beat up on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
The New Years Eve bowls began with a game that looked like a blowout, as Texas A&M manhandled Northwestern. Late in the second half, though, the Wildcats offense found their bearings, and a comeback began. They fell short, but they set the stage for a series of three successive close games, including the first overtime of the postseason, as Utah and Georgia Tech fought it out in the Sun Bowl. The night ended with Auburn slaughtering Virginia in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Once again, the "New Years Day" bowls (this year played on Jan 2nd) proved a challenge for the Big Ten. Last year they went 0-5; this year they went 1-4. Houston and South Carolina, two ranked teams, beat up on non-ranked Penn State and Nebraska, as expected (I HATE how the bowl committee assigns such tough opposition to the Big Ten - they do that to the Pac-12, too. It seems they hate these two long-standing conferences). Michigan State beat Georgia in a thrilling three-overtime game that lasted over four hours. Ohio State and Wisconsin each lost by only a touchdown; a better result for Ohio State in a post-New Years Day bowl. As expected, the Rose Bowl was an offensive shootout, won by Oregon on the last full possession of the game. The day ended with the second overtime game of the day, as Oklahoma State hoped to stake their claim for a share of the National Championship with a hard-fought victory over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl.
The post-New Years bowls opened with Michigan winning in the fourth and final overtime game. These four games tied for the most overtime bowl games in a single season, and the six overtime periods set a new record. West Virginia followed with a shocking spanking over Clemson, winning by the largest margin of all the bowl games (37 points) and scoring more points (70) than had been scored in a bowl game in over thirty years. That Orange Bowl victory began a series of routs that concluded with the first shutout BCS title victory in the history of the BCS.
Conference rankings
1 (tie). Mid American Conference (4-1) : The MAC ended with another impressive bowl record; in the past ten years, they are matched with the SEC for the best overall bowl record. They scored the first two bowl victories of the postseason (Temple and Ohio), overcame an offensive shootout against Air Force (Toledo), and ended with a dominating performance against the Sun Belt champ (Northern Illinois). Their loss? An upset to Purdue.
1 (tie). Conference USA (4-1) : This conference switches between great bowl records and terrible ones. This year was a strong one. Both teams in the conference title game (Southern Miss and Houston) won their bowl games, as did SMU and Marshall. Tulsa was the only loss, a close three-point battle against higher-rated BYU.
3. Big XII (6-2) : The conference with the best records throughout the season shined in the bowls. It began with Missouri beating up North Carolina in the Independence Bowl, followed by strong wins by Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. In the middle was the offensive showcase by RGIII and the Baylor Bears. Oklahoma State squeezed out a victory against Heisman runner-up Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal before Kansas State fell to Arkansas. Their other loss? Iowa State falling to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, practically a home crowd for the Scarlet Knights.
4. SEC (6-3) : This conference frequently does well in the bowls, but this year was a bit down from usual. We knew the BCS Championship would give them both a win and a loss, as we had the first inter-conference battle for the BCS title in BCS history. Georgia lost the three-overtime thriller and Vandy lost by only ten to Cincy. In fact, the worst bowl loss for the conference was LSU's shutout performance, in a game where they crossed into opposing territory only ONCE. Their wins weren't all impressive (Mississippi State won by six, Florida won by seven), but most of them were decisive.
5. Big East (3-2) : This is the only other conference with a winning bowl record. Louisville lost by seven, but then Rutgers won by the same amount. Cincy beat Vandy by only ten, and Pitt got spanked by SMU, but West Virginia redeemed the conference, winning the Orange Bowl by the largest margin of victory in the bowls.
6. Big Ten (4-6) : Not a great year for the Big Ten, but not a terrible year. Yes, they lost another Rose Bowl, but it was a close and hard-fought game; better than many. Take away the Jan 2nd games and the conference was 3-2, including an upset by Purdue. Michigan and Michigan State both played in overtime games, winning each by three points. Illinois was the other winner, reversing a six-game losing streak and proving that UCLA should have been granted the exception to play in a bowl game (although all Illini fans are happy they did, guaranteeing a bowl win for the Illini).
7. Mountain West (2-3) : Once again the Mountain West beats the WAC, but once again they still had a poor bowl showing. Boise State was the only impressive win. TCU barely scraped out theirs, and the other teams lost, although Air Force and San Diego State lost by a TOTAL of three points.
8. Sun Belt (1-2) : Not a good year for the Sun Belt. Their first bowl was their only win, and it was a tight two-point margin. They got worse as the bowls progressed.
9. Pac-12 (2-5) : The Pac-12 has had the worst stretch of bowl records than any other conference. Overmatched in most of their games, Oregon and Stanford are the only two teams who were given much of a chance to win. Oregon did, but Stanford lost in overtime. The other winner? Utah, in their first season in the conference.
10. ACC (2-6) : This was not a good year for the ACC. It began with North Carolina's thrashing and concluded with Clemson's. They lost two heartbreaking overtime games. Virginia was slaughtered by Auburn, and Wake Forest couldn't come back against Mississippi State. Their two victories were more morale-boosting than overwhelming: Florida State extended Notre Dame's bowl losing streak in a messy four-point win, and NC State beat Louisville in a mistake-filled Belk Bowl.
11. WAC (0-3) : The record says it all
Final Top 25 [Last rank in season]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) [2] : The Tide proved they deserved the National Championship. After all, they gained more yards than LSU in the first game; if their kicker hadn't been having the worst game of his life, they would have been unbeaten.
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-1) [3] : I think Alabama's decisive victory over LSU, and the Cowboys close win over Stanford, settles the question of whether they should have played for the National Championship
3. LSU Tigers (13-1) [1]
4. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [4] : Despite the loss of both the Heisman and the bowl game, Andrew Luck is likely to be drafted first by the Colts
5. Boise State Broncos (12-1) [6]
6. Oregon Ducks (12-2) [7] : The Rose Bowl and Pac-12 winner still can't leap over Stanford
7. Houston Cougars (13-1) [8] : Best season in the Cougars history
8. Wisconsin Badgers (11-3) [5] : The Big Ten winner takes a three-point drop
9. Michigan Wolverines (11-2) [9]
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (11-2) [12] : Three SEC teams in the Top 10; that's a typical end of the season
11. Michigan State Spartans (11-3) [11] : I'm still overwhelmed by the comeback by the Spartans that forced overtime, and the defensive stand that forced the second overtime after the offense turned the ball over
12. TCU Horned Frogs (11-2) [10] : Dropping two points after a win? After a sad win like that one, you can't stay in the Top Ten
13. Oklahoma Sooners (10-3) [15]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (11-2) [16]
15. USC Trojans (10-2) [13] : Missing the bowls really hurt this team
16. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (12-2) [14]
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (10-3) [NR] : The Mountaineers roar back into the Top 25 with the most overwhelming win of the bowls
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-3) [18]
19. Georgia Bulldogs (10-4) [23] : They battled the Spartans very well; that game was not really a loss
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-3) [24] : They knocked the Sun Belt winner out of the Top 25, leaving only eight conferences represented
21. Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) [22]
22. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) [NR]
23. Baylor Bears (9-3) [25] : After the Alamo Bowl offensive showcase, RGIII should add some spice to the NFL
24. Temple Owls (9-4) [NR]
25. Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) [20]
On the Edge: Clemson Tigers (10-4), BYU Cougars (9-3), Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-3), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-5), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4)
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
NFL 2011 Playoffs - Divisional round
It was an interesting wildcard round. Despite all of the talk about the power of the wildcards, the home teams (divisional winners) all won. That by itself makes it an unusual year, as there is frequently an upset in the first week of the playoffs. Of course, there were TWO upsets this week, when you consider which teams were favored, so perhaps it was more normal after all.
We started the playoffs with two teams who struggled going into the playoffs. There was no clear favorite, and my pick of Cincy was the closest of all of the games. As it turned out, this game had nearly the largest margin of victory. Houston's defense found themselves again, and they pestered rookie Andy Dalton all day. Fellow rookie, and third string QB, T.J. Yates looked good. He had gradually been improving each week as the season concluded, and he continued his development in this game. It would be interesting to see how this defense would deal with New England, and how well Yates could move the Texans against the weakened Pats defense. We may not get to see that, though.
The next game was expected to be a blowout, but it was closer than any other game except the overtime thriller. For a while Matthew Stafford and the Lions maintained pace with the high-powered Saints, but the Saints took over in the second half. The next day, though, the Giants took over the whole game. After Atlanta scored on a safety, the Giants defense clamped down, stifling Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense all game. Eli was competent but not stellar, but he didn't have to be. He played mostly mistake-free football and let the defense control the game.
The last game was the most exciting. We didn't know how much the injuries and other player losses would affect the Steelers. Big Ben played okay on his injured ankle, but the new center caused some problems. The secondary seemed slower and lacked anticipation, and Tim Tebow exploited that. The Broncos matched the Steelers in scoring; in fact, the Broncos led for much of the game. Pittsburgh took a late lead, but the Broncos tied it up. Pittsburgh couldn't score at the end of the game, so we went to overtime. This was the first overtime with the new rules, but the rules didn't need to be invoked. Denver scored a touchdown on the first play of the game (ironically, with the longest play from scrimmage in the ENTIRE game!), and they advanced to the next round.
Denver's victory was perhaps the biggest surprise of the wildcard round, but can they continue to surprise? The Pats defense is worse than the Steelers, but their offense is much better. How will this game play out? I see this one being on offensive shootout on the order of the Lions against the Saints, but I like New England's chances. No coach prepares better for postseason games than Bill Belichick, and no team has more postseason experience than the Patriots. This game may be close for much of the time, but the Patriots will determine some ways to slow Tebow and pull away in the fourth quarter. PATS by six
Let's look at the other games:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3) : Whoa! Like the Giants/Atlanta game last week, this one could go either way. It's basically a battle of the top offense against the top defense. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense will be able to move against the Saints defense, but the key will be slowing down the Saints. If any defense can do it, it would be the 49ers. We also have to consider that the Saints do not play well on the road in the postseason. Remember, the year they won the Super Bowl they were the Number One seed; they never had to play on the road. The Saints could overwhelm the 49ers defense, but in contests of top offenses against top defenses, the defense wins in nearly 2/3rds of those, so I have to pick San Fran. 49ERS by four
HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) : Houston's defense won the battle against Cincy, but the Ravens have a better defense. They also have a better offense, and it's based on successfully running the ball, which gives them more control over the clock and the momentum. Yates is still "green" enough to need momentum to boost his performance; the Ravens should be able to shake that up. Defense is the strength of both of these teams, so expect this to be a fairly low-scoring affair. RAVENS by six
NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (15-1) : The Giants defense shut down Atlanta, but they can't count on doing that to Green Bay. Unlike other years, Green Bay comes into the playoffs healthy, which makes them even more deadly. The Giants might slow the Pack early, but they won't sustain it. This game may be close (within ten points) at the half, but the second half will be Green Bay's. PACK by twenty
We started the playoffs with two teams who struggled going into the playoffs. There was no clear favorite, and my pick of Cincy was the closest of all of the games. As it turned out, this game had nearly the largest margin of victory. Houston's defense found themselves again, and they pestered rookie Andy Dalton all day. Fellow rookie, and third string QB, T.J. Yates looked good. He had gradually been improving each week as the season concluded, and he continued his development in this game. It would be interesting to see how this defense would deal with New England, and how well Yates could move the Texans against the weakened Pats defense. We may not get to see that, though.
The next game was expected to be a blowout, but it was closer than any other game except the overtime thriller. For a while Matthew Stafford and the Lions maintained pace with the high-powered Saints, but the Saints took over in the second half. The next day, though, the Giants took over the whole game. After Atlanta scored on a safety, the Giants defense clamped down, stifling Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense all game. Eli was competent but not stellar, but he didn't have to be. He played mostly mistake-free football and let the defense control the game.
The last game was the most exciting. We didn't know how much the injuries and other player losses would affect the Steelers. Big Ben played okay on his injured ankle, but the new center caused some problems. The secondary seemed slower and lacked anticipation, and Tim Tebow exploited that. The Broncos matched the Steelers in scoring; in fact, the Broncos led for much of the game. Pittsburgh took a late lead, but the Broncos tied it up. Pittsburgh couldn't score at the end of the game, so we went to overtime. This was the first overtime with the new rules, but the rules didn't need to be invoked. Denver scored a touchdown on the first play of the game (ironically, with the longest play from scrimmage in the ENTIRE game!), and they advanced to the next round.
Denver's victory was perhaps the biggest surprise of the wildcard round, but can they continue to surprise? The Pats defense is worse than the Steelers, but their offense is much better. How will this game play out? I see this one being on offensive shootout on the order of the Lions against the Saints, but I like New England's chances. No coach prepares better for postseason games than Bill Belichick, and no team has more postseason experience than the Patriots. This game may be close for much of the time, but the Patriots will determine some ways to slow Tebow and pull away in the fourth quarter. PATS by six
Let's look at the other games:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3) : Whoa! Like the Giants/Atlanta game last week, this one could go either way. It's basically a battle of the top offense against the top defense. Alex Smith and the 49ers offense will be able to move against the Saints defense, but the key will be slowing down the Saints. If any defense can do it, it would be the 49ers. We also have to consider that the Saints do not play well on the road in the postseason. Remember, the year they won the Super Bowl they were the Number One seed; they never had to play on the road. The Saints could overwhelm the 49ers defense, but in contests of top offenses against top defenses, the defense wins in nearly 2/3rds of those, so I have to pick San Fran. 49ERS by four
HOUSTON TEXANS (11-6) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) : Houston's defense won the battle against Cincy, but the Ravens have a better defense. They also have a better offense, and it's based on successfully running the ball, which gives them more control over the clock and the momentum. Yates is still "green" enough to need momentum to boost his performance; the Ravens should be able to shake that up. Defense is the strength of both of these teams, so expect this to be a fairly low-scoring affair. RAVENS by six
NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (15-1) : The Giants defense shut down Atlanta, but they can't count on doing that to Green Bay. Unlike other years, Green Bay comes into the playoffs healthy, which makes them even more deadly. The Giants might slow the Pack early, but they won't sustain it. This game may be close (within ten points) at the half, but the second half will be Green Bay's. PACK by twenty
Thursday, January 5, 2012
NFL 2011 Playoffs - Wildcard round
Let's start with the top teams and divisions. I'm always interested to see if, due to the division preference in picking playoff teams, whether the top teams are in the playoffs. Looks good for this year.
Top TWELVE teams
1. Green Bay Packers (15-1) : top seed in the NFC is the top team overall, despite resting some key players in the final game
2. New Orleans Saints (13-3) : They may be the third seed in the NFC, but that offense is pretty unbeatable
3. New England Patriots (13-3) : The top team in the AFC slides in here, which shows that the NFC is likely to win the Super Bowl again.
4. San Francisco 49ers (13-3) : The top defense makes the second seed in the NFC an attractive pick
5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) : Unbeaten in the AFC North, but their defense is slipping
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) : They regained the top defense in the conference ranking
7. Houston Texans (10-6) : A three-game losing streak coming into the playoffs is not a good sign
8. Detroit Lions (10-6) : The Lions lit up the scoreboard but couldn't surpass the Pack under a 2nd string QB. How do YOU think they'll do in the playoffs?
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) : The only non-playoff team in the NFL in the Top 12, this team had strong highs
10. Atlanta Falcons (10-6) : Matt Ryan and the Falcons proved they can score points, but can the defense stop teams?
11. San Diego Chargers (8-8) : Once again they poured it on in the latter half of the season. If they can start strong, they can return to the playoffs
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) : The Bengals didn't quite live up to their early success, but they reach the playoffs
Division ranks
1. AFC North : With three playoff teams, this division clearly leads
2. NFC North : The Bears redeemed themselves in the final week, and the Lions break a decade-long playoff drought
3. AFC East : The Pats carried this division after the Jets and Bills dissolved
4. NFC South : The Bucs pulled them down, but the rest of the division showed strength
5. NFC East : The division winner has the fewest wins since the AFL-NFL merger, but these teams were close enough to make them an interesting division
6. NFC West : How did they jump up? Late drives by Seattle and Arizona helped overcome the Rams
7. AFC South : A collapse by Jacksonville and the Colts' gain of the first draft pick shows where this division needs work
8. AFC West : The better team didn't win the division, and the rest couldn't even score as many as 75 less points than they gave up
#6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at #3 Houston Texans (10-6) : T.J. Yates has been holding his own against lesser teams, but a three-game losing streak is no way to enter the playoffs. Cincy didn't have a great streak prior to the playoffs, either, as they had lost three of their last four before the final game. Bengals QB Andy Dalton is recovering from the flu, but their offense is clicking better than the Texans. Can the Texans defense slow the Bengals? I think so. Will they slow them enough for the sputtering Texans' offense to score more? That one I question. BENGALS by four
#6 Detroit Lions (10-6) at #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) : This is the only game where I clearly favor the home team. Detroit can score points, but no team is more effective offensively than the Saints. The Lions' defense just isn't capable of slowing them, and the Lions offense won't be able to keep up. SAINTS by twelve
#5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at #4 New York Giants (9-7) : This one might be the closest game of all four. On paper, the Falcons should win easily. The Giants, however, seem to find second life in the playoffs. They will prove to be a tough team to beat. The Falcons are 0-2 in the playoffs since Matt Ryan joined them. They typically hurt themselves with penalties. If they can play cleaner ball, they should win. If not, watch out for a Giants upset. FALCONS by three
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at #4 Denver Broncos (8-8) : The Steelers are playing without their top runner and safety, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing injured. This seems to be the perfect formula for another magical Tebow comeback. The obstacle to that? The high-powered Steelers defense, whose strong pass rush will keep Tebow on the defensive most of the game. STEELERS by five
Top TWELVE teams
1. Green Bay Packers (15-1) : top seed in the NFC is the top team overall, despite resting some key players in the final game
2. New Orleans Saints (13-3) : They may be the third seed in the NFC, but that offense is pretty unbeatable
3. New England Patriots (13-3) : The top team in the AFC slides in here, which shows that the NFC is likely to win the Super Bowl again.
4. San Francisco 49ers (13-3) : The top defense makes the second seed in the NFC an attractive pick
5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4) : Unbeaten in the AFC North, but their defense is slipping
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) : They regained the top defense in the conference ranking
7. Houston Texans (10-6) : A three-game losing streak coming into the playoffs is not a good sign
8. Detroit Lions (10-6) : The Lions lit up the scoreboard but couldn't surpass the Pack under a 2nd string QB. How do YOU think they'll do in the playoffs?
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) : The only non-playoff team in the NFL in the Top 12, this team had strong highs
10. Atlanta Falcons (10-6) : Matt Ryan and the Falcons proved they can score points, but can the defense stop teams?
11. San Diego Chargers (8-8) : Once again they poured it on in the latter half of the season. If they can start strong, they can return to the playoffs
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) : The Bengals didn't quite live up to their early success, but they reach the playoffs
Division ranks
1. AFC North : With three playoff teams, this division clearly leads
2. NFC North : The Bears redeemed themselves in the final week, and the Lions break a decade-long playoff drought
3. AFC East : The Pats carried this division after the Jets and Bills dissolved
4. NFC South : The Bucs pulled them down, but the rest of the division showed strength
5. NFC East : The division winner has the fewest wins since the AFL-NFL merger, but these teams were close enough to make them an interesting division
6. NFC West : How did they jump up? Late drives by Seattle and Arizona helped overcome the Rams
7. AFC South : A collapse by Jacksonville and the Colts' gain of the first draft pick shows where this division needs work
8. AFC West : The better team didn't win the division, and the rest couldn't even score as many as 75 less points than they gave up
#6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) at #3 Houston Texans (10-6) : T.J. Yates has been holding his own against lesser teams, but a three-game losing streak is no way to enter the playoffs. Cincy didn't have a great streak prior to the playoffs, either, as they had lost three of their last four before the final game. Bengals QB Andy Dalton is recovering from the flu, but their offense is clicking better than the Texans. Can the Texans defense slow the Bengals? I think so. Will they slow them enough for the sputtering Texans' offense to score more? That one I question. BENGALS by four
#6 Detroit Lions (10-6) at #3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) : This is the only game where I clearly favor the home team. Detroit can score points, but no team is more effective offensively than the Saints. The Lions' defense just isn't capable of slowing them, and the Lions offense won't be able to keep up. SAINTS by twelve
#5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at #4 New York Giants (9-7) : This one might be the closest game of all four. On paper, the Falcons should win easily. The Giants, however, seem to find second life in the playoffs. They will prove to be a tough team to beat. The Falcons are 0-2 in the playoffs since Matt Ryan joined them. They typically hurt themselves with penalties. If they can play cleaner ball, they should win. If not, watch out for a Giants upset. FALCONS by three
#5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) at #4 Denver Broncos (8-8) : The Steelers are playing without their top runner and safety, and QB Ben Roethlisberger is playing injured. This seems to be the perfect formula for another magical Tebow comeback. The obstacle to that? The high-powered Steelers defense, whose strong pass rush will keep Tebow on the defensive most of the game. STEELERS by five
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