The Power Rankings go to the top thirteen teams this week, so that all playoff teams can be included.
Top Teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3) [1] : This is a powerful team, and they gained home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They are the NFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (13-3) [2] : The AFC top seed was the most potent offense of the season, and one of the best of all time.
3. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) [3] : How screwy is it that a WILDCARD team is the Number Three team? That shows the power of the NFC West this season.
4. Carolina Panthers (12-4) [4] : The NFC second seed is a defensive behemoth
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) [5] : Like the NFC, the second place team in the conference is a wildcard, as they share a division with the top seed. How strong are the Chiefs? They nearly beat San Diego with SEVEN starters sitting out the entire game!
6. New England Patriots (12-4) [6] : Despite injuries, this team continued to find ways to win. That makes them tough in the playoffs, where determination and clever strategy counts as much as talent.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) [7] : The Bengals have been strong the last few weeks leading into the postseason, and such momentum makes a big difference.
8. New Orleans Saints (11-5) [8] : The Saints ended well against a divisional opponent, and at home, both situations where they have played well this season.
9. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) [9] : Colts ended strongly
10. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) [11] : The Eagles dominated Dallas for much of the game, but Kyle Orton nearly engineered a comeback.
11. Arizona Cardinals (10-6) [10] : San Francisco knocked them out of the playoffs, but the Cards had a great winning streak.
12. San Diego Chargers (9-7) [12] : The Chargers barely beat a hampered Chiefs team, so you wonder how they will do in the playoffs.
13. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) [15] : The return of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb propelled them past the Bears
Playoff picks
#5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Indianapolis Colts: The Colts beat the Chiefs the last time they met, but the Chiefs seem stiffer now. They played San Diego tough missing seven of their starters, and the Colts have not gained the consistency that instills great confidence. The Colts were the only team from outside the AFC West to beat the Chiefs, and I don't think they can do it twice in the same season. CHIEFS, 23-20
#6 New Orleans Saints at #3 Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles nearly lost to a Kyle Orton-led Cowboys, but then against Orton doesn't force throws as much as Romo. The Saints are a stronger team, but they have played very poorly on the road this season. If the Eagles establish an early lead, the Saints might force some plays, putting them in a situation similar to a Romo-led Cowboys team. EAGLES, 26-23
#6 San Diego Chargers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals: With the Cardinals failing to reach the playoffs, the team with the most momentum coming into these playoffs are the Bengals. They have been very consistent and very strong. Given how the Chargers struggled against a weakened Chiefs squad last week, I don't think San Diego can win. BENGALS, 23-17
#5 San Francisco 49ers at #4 Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodger's return has breathed new life into this team, but I don't think that will be enough. The Pack is still banged up, and the stiff 49ers defense will pound them. Colin Kaepernick is still having some problems, but the team has done a good job of supporting him. 49ERS, 23-16
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Saturday, December 28, 2013
NCAA 2013 - 2014 Bowls
As I type this, the Russell Athletic Bowl is kicking off. My bowl record so far isn't great, but that shows the magic of the bowls - anything can happen. So many national analysts wanted to discard the bowls and create a large playoff system, but the coaches said, "No." I think these bowls have shown why they said that. NEVER count out any team, especially when many teams haven't played a game in three to four weeks. It shows how discipline and commitment can trump momentum.
I left off in the previous column with the Holiday Bowl, which closes Dec 30th. I'll start now with the Dec 31st bowls, and move into the BCS bowls and post-New Years Bowls.
Dec 31
V100 BOWL -- Arizona Wildcats (7-5) v Boston College Eagles (7-5): Level of competition is the real difference here. Arizona had the tougher conference and non-conference opponents. The Wildcats wear down opponents with their strong running attack, and their stiff defense prevents them from falling so far behind that they have to give up on their running attack. BC has had a problem finishing games, and the grinding offense of Arizona will make that worse. ARIZONA by ten
SUN BOWL -- Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) v #18 UCLA Bruins (9-3): UCLA QB Brett Huntley brings his fast-paced passing attack into El Paso. The Hokies defense isn't great, and UCLA will stretch them until they break. UCLA has been vulnerable to teams with strong secondaries and fast-paced offenses, as their receivers are a bit undersized and their defensive squad is thin. Tech can move the ball, but their secondary isn't a major threat. UCLA by 11
LIBERTY BOWL -- #25 Rice Owls (10-2) v Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6): Many national analysts have the Bulldogs winning by a big margin. I'm not sure whether that is due to the ridiculous bias of believing the SEC can beat anyone, or whether they question the strength of Rice. Granted, the Owls are an infrequent bowl participant, but that doesn't mean they cannot be strong opponents. As I type this, Conference USA is 2-1 in bowls, on par with the ACC and Pac-12. The Owls have faced some tough opponents and emerged victorious, while the Bulldogs seemed to rely more on knowing how their opponents think. I like Rice here. RICE by eight
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Duke Blue Devils (10-3) v #23 Texas A&M Aggies (8-4): This is a great match-up. Nobody believes in Duke after they got pasted by Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but they have been a good team this year. The Aggies are led by everyone's favorite QB, Johnny Manziel, so everyone favors A&M. While I think A&M might win this game, it'll be close and a lot tougher than people think. Manziel takes too many chances with the ball, and Duke has been great producing and taking advantage of turnovers. If Manziel is intercepted more than twice, Duke may win this one. TEXAS A&M by six
Jan 1
I remember when this was the last day of bowls. Ah well, how times change.
DALLAS BOWL -- UNLV Running Rebels (7-5) v North Texas Mean Green (8-4): This is nearly a home game for North Texas. Combine that with one of the stingiest defenses in the country, and the Mean Green are easy favorites here. NORTH TEXAS by 16
GATOR BOWL -- Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) v Georgia Bulldogs (8-4): Lookee here! We have a rematch of last year's Capital One Bowl. Georgia came in to that one favored, and ranked Number Five in the country. They won, but the Cornhuskers refused to go away, almost engineering a great fourth quarter comeback. Georgia is favored again, but they are not unanimously ranked. Again, Georgia has more talent, but Nebraska is fiestier. They have two capable quarterbacks that they may switch off, throwing off Georgia's defense. We know Georgia's defense can be confused; that was shown a few times this year. Georgia may win, but it'll be a close and hard-fought battle. GEORGIA by three
OUTBACK BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) v #14 LSU Tigers (9-3): Geez, talk about giving the SEC an easy game! This is why their bowl record is so good, because they are given opponents they can easily beat. The question here is, will LSU think they can win too easily? Iowa can be crafty. They might lead at the half, but LSU will make the necessary adjustments to win. LSU by 16
CAPITAL ONE BOWL -- #17 Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) v #12 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2): This won't be easy! Clowney and the Gamecock defense is great at rushing quarterbacks and sealing running holes in their line, but few teams have the muscular power runners that Wisconsin has. They might just push South Carolina back. Coach Stever Spurrier makes great adjustments, and has a myriad of plays in his head, so they should figure out a way to win, but they can't just rush Wisconsin and knock them around like they did to Michigan last year; Wisconsin is stronger than that. South Carolina barely won that game, and might lose this one, but I'll pick the higher ranked team. SOUTH CAROLINA by three
ROSE BOWL -- #7 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) v #6 Stanford Cardinal (11-2): This defensive battle won't be as exciting without Spartan captain Max Bullough. We know the suspension is not due to academics (although the Big Ten remains one of the few conferences we WILL suspend players for bowl games due to academics), nor is it due to locker room texting (the reason Notre Dame lost RB George Atkinson). Knowing Bullough, it probably has something to do with missing curfew or goofing around at a team function (two other reason Big Ten teams will suspend players while other BCS conference will not). The Spartans have enough talented defenders that it is not hopeless, but the Cardinal are a strong team. His absence will be felt, perhaps enough to shift the winner of this game. With Bullough, I would have felt good about picking the Spartans. Without him, a win would be an upset. STANFORD by six
FIESTA BOWL -- #13 UCF Golden Knights (11-1) v #3 Baylor Bears (11-1): Nobody is giving UCF much of a chance, and truthfully I'm not sure they can win, either. True, they beat offensive powerhouse Louisville, but that was partially because the Cardinals defense collapsed in the fourth quarter. While Baylor doesn't have a great defense, I don't think they will collapse like that. BAYLOR by 13
Jan 2
SUGAR BOWL -- #20 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) v #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1): Despite the one-game difference in record, and Oklahoma's great win over Oklahoma State that gave them the Big XII title, I think Alabama will dominate this game. Bama should have gone unbeaten if their players had realized that the missed field goal was a live ball so long as it didn't hit the ground. ALABAMA by 18
Jan 3
COTTON BOWL -- #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) v #9 Missouri Tigers (11-2): Based upon rankings, this is the closest bowl game aside from the Rose Bowl, which might be so close without Bullough. Missouri has a powerful offense, equally dangerous in the air and on the ground. They also have a strong backup quarterback, so even knocking Franklin out of the game won't stop them. The Cowboys have excellent balance, with top ranked offense and top ranked defense squads. The Cowboys know the facility, and will likely have more of the crowd on their side. However, battling in hostile environments didn't bother Missouri this season; if anything, it gave them more incentive. MISSOURI by four
ORANGE BOWL -- #16 Clemson Tigers (10-2) at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes struggled against strong offenses this season, but they still found ways to win those games. Their only loss was a team who out-defended them. Clemson's defense is okay, but not in the same sphere as the Buckeyes. They rely on Tajh Boyd and the offense too much, which gives Ohio State a chance to throw them off their game. OHIO STATE by six
Jan 4
COMPASS BOWL -- Vanderblt Commodores (8-4) v Houston Cougars (8-4): The Commodores defense got them to this bowl game, but that defense will be overmatched by the power of the Cougars offense. HOUSTON by 17
Jan 5
GoDADDY BOWL -- Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) v #24 Ball State Cardinals (10-2): Ball State may save the MAC, who has played miserably in the bowl games. Arkansas State can be tricky, and they beat the Kent State Golden Flashes last year in this bowl, but Ball State has a potent offense that wears down opposing defenses. Combine that with a fast defense who can break up plays, and Ball State has too many weapons to lose this one. BALL STATE by 20
Jan 6
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in the ROSE BOWL -- #1 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) v #4 Auburn Tigers (12-1): The BCS era ends in the stadium holding its own monumental occasion -- the 100th Rose Bowl. As has been the rule for nearly a decade, an SEC team plays in the National Championship. However, this time they are not the favorite. Auburn is good, but they won two of their three signature games with lucky plays near or at the end of the game. Don't count on that against Florida State, who wins with sheer power and speed. Everyone talks about how fast the SEC defenses are, but I don't think Auburn can keep pace with the Seminoles. It has been nearly twenty years since Florida State played for a national championship, so you know they will make the most of it. FLORIDA STATE by 11
I left off in the previous column with the Holiday Bowl, which closes Dec 30th. I'll start now with the Dec 31st bowls, and move into the BCS bowls and post-New Years Bowls.
Dec 31
V100 BOWL -- Arizona Wildcats (7-5) v Boston College Eagles (7-5): Level of competition is the real difference here. Arizona had the tougher conference and non-conference opponents. The Wildcats wear down opponents with their strong running attack, and their stiff defense prevents them from falling so far behind that they have to give up on their running attack. BC has had a problem finishing games, and the grinding offense of Arizona will make that worse. ARIZONA by ten
SUN BOWL -- Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) v #18 UCLA Bruins (9-3): UCLA QB Brett Huntley brings his fast-paced passing attack into El Paso. The Hokies defense isn't great, and UCLA will stretch them until they break. UCLA has been vulnerable to teams with strong secondaries and fast-paced offenses, as their receivers are a bit undersized and their defensive squad is thin. Tech can move the ball, but their secondary isn't a major threat. UCLA by 11
LIBERTY BOWL -- #25 Rice Owls (10-2) v Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6): Many national analysts have the Bulldogs winning by a big margin. I'm not sure whether that is due to the ridiculous bias of believing the SEC can beat anyone, or whether they question the strength of Rice. Granted, the Owls are an infrequent bowl participant, but that doesn't mean they cannot be strong opponents. As I type this, Conference USA is 2-1 in bowls, on par with the ACC and Pac-12. The Owls have faced some tough opponents and emerged victorious, while the Bulldogs seemed to rely more on knowing how their opponents think. I like Rice here. RICE by eight
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL -- Duke Blue Devils (10-3) v #23 Texas A&M Aggies (8-4): This is a great match-up. Nobody believes in Duke after they got pasted by Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but they have been a good team this year. The Aggies are led by everyone's favorite QB, Johnny Manziel, so everyone favors A&M. While I think A&M might win this game, it'll be close and a lot tougher than people think. Manziel takes too many chances with the ball, and Duke has been great producing and taking advantage of turnovers. If Manziel is intercepted more than twice, Duke may win this one. TEXAS A&M by six
Jan 1
I remember when this was the last day of bowls. Ah well, how times change.
DALLAS BOWL -- UNLV Running Rebels (7-5) v North Texas Mean Green (8-4): This is nearly a home game for North Texas. Combine that with one of the stingiest defenses in the country, and the Mean Green are easy favorites here. NORTH TEXAS by 16
GATOR BOWL -- Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4) v Georgia Bulldogs (8-4): Lookee here! We have a rematch of last year's Capital One Bowl. Georgia came in to that one favored, and ranked Number Five in the country. They won, but the Cornhuskers refused to go away, almost engineering a great fourth quarter comeback. Georgia is favored again, but they are not unanimously ranked. Again, Georgia has more talent, but Nebraska is fiestier. They have two capable quarterbacks that they may switch off, throwing off Georgia's defense. We know Georgia's defense can be confused; that was shown a few times this year. Georgia may win, but it'll be a close and hard-fought battle. GEORGIA by three
OUTBACK BOWL -- Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) v #14 LSU Tigers (9-3): Geez, talk about giving the SEC an easy game! This is why their bowl record is so good, because they are given opponents they can easily beat. The question here is, will LSU think they can win too easily? Iowa can be crafty. They might lead at the half, but LSU will make the necessary adjustments to win. LSU by 16
CAPITAL ONE BOWL -- #17 Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) v #12 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2): This won't be easy! Clowney and the Gamecock defense is great at rushing quarterbacks and sealing running holes in their line, but few teams have the muscular power runners that Wisconsin has. They might just push South Carolina back. Coach Stever Spurrier makes great adjustments, and has a myriad of plays in his head, so they should figure out a way to win, but they can't just rush Wisconsin and knock them around like they did to Michigan last year; Wisconsin is stronger than that. South Carolina barely won that game, and might lose this one, but I'll pick the higher ranked team. SOUTH CAROLINA by three
ROSE BOWL -- #7 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) v #6 Stanford Cardinal (11-2): This defensive battle won't be as exciting without Spartan captain Max Bullough. We know the suspension is not due to academics (although the Big Ten remains one of the few conferences we WILL suspend players for bowl games due to academics), nor is it due to locker room texting (the reason Notre Dame lost RB George Atkinson). Knowing Bullough, it probably has something to do with missing curfew or goofing around at a team function (two other reason Big Ten teams will suspend players while other BCS conference will not). The Spartans have enough talented defenders that it is not hopeless, but the Cardinal are a strong team. His absence will be felt, perhaps enough to shift the winner of this game. With Bullough, I would have felt good about picking the Spartans. Without him, a win would be an upset. STANFORD by six
FIESTA BOWL -- #13 UCF Golden Knights (11-1) v #3 Baylor Bears (11-1): Nobody is giving UCF much of a chance, and truthfully I'm not sure they can win, either. True, they beat offensive powerhouse Louisville, but that was partially because the Cardinals defense collapsed in the fourth quarter. While Baylor doesn't have a great defense, I don't think they will collapse like that. BAYLOR by 13
Jan 2
SUGAR BOWL -- #20 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) v #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1): Despite the one-game difference in record, and Oklahoma's great win over Oklahoma State that gave them the Big XII title, I think Alabama will dominate this game. Bama should have gone unbeaten if their players had realized that the missed field goal was a live ball so long as it didn't hit the ground. ALABAMA by 18
Jan 3
COTTON BOWL -- #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) v #9 Missouri Tigers (11-2): Based upon rankings, this is the closest bowl game aside from the Rose Bowl, which might be so close without Bullough. Missouri has a powerful offense, equally dangerous in the air and on the ground. They also have a strong backup quarterback, so even knocking Franklin out of the game won't stop them. The Cowboys have excellent balance, with top ranked offense and top ranked defense squads. The Cowboys know the facility, and will likely have more of the crowd on their side. However, battling in hostile environments didn't bother Missouri this season; if anything, it gave them more incentive. MISSOURI by four
ORANGE BOWL -- #16 Clemson Tigers (10-2) at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes struggled against strong offenses this season, but they still found ways to win those games. Their only loss was a team who out-defended them. Clemson's defense is okay, but not in the same sphere as the Buckeyes. They rely on Tajh Boyd and the offense too much, which gives Ohio State a chance to throw them off their game. OHIO STATE by six
Jan 4
COMPASS BOWL -- Vanderblt Commodores (8-4) v Houston Cougars (8-4): The Commodores defense got them to this bowl game, but that defense will be overmatched by the power of the Cougars offense. HOUSTON by 17
Jan 5
GoDADDY BOWL -- Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) v #24 Ball State Cardinals (10-2): Ball State may save the MAC, who has played miserably in the bowl games. Arkansas State can be tricky, and they beat the Kent State Golden Flashes last year in this bowl, but Ball State has a potent offense that wears down opposing defenses. Combine that with a fast defense who can break up plays, and Ball State has too many weapons to lose this one. BALL STATE by 20
Jan 6
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in the ROSE BOWL -- #1 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) v #4 Auburn Tigers (12-1): The BCS era ends in the stadium holding its own monumental occasion -- the 100th Rose Bowl. As has been the rule for nearly a decade, an SEC team plays in the National Championship. However, this time they are not the favorite. Auburn is good, but they won two of their three signature games with lucky plays near or at the end of the game. Don't count on that against Florida State, who wins with sheer power and speed. Everyone talks about how fast the SEC defenses are, but I don't think Auburn can keep pace with the Seminoles. It has been nearly twenty years since Florida State played for a national championship, so you know they will make the most of it. FLORIDA STATE by 11
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 17 Power Rankings and picks
It was a strange week last week. The AFC now has all division titles crowned and five out of six playoff teams determined. The NFC has no division titles crowned and three playoff spots still up for grabs.
Top 12 Teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3) [1] : Their winning record at home was shattered this week, but they still maintain the top spot.
2. Denver Broncos (12-3) [3] : An impressive win gave them the AFC West title; now they are hoping for top seed in the AFC
3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4) [4] : The 49ers clinched the playoffs and are now competing for the division title
4. Carolina Panthers (11-4) [5] : The Panthers took the lead in the NFC South with a strong defensive performance.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) [2] :A tough loss cost them any chance at the division title and sewed up fifth seed.
6. New England Patriots (11-4) [7] : Strong win over the Ravens keeps their hopes for top seed alive
7. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) [8] : The Bengals had an impressive game to provide excellent momentum into the playoffs. They also keep alive hopes for a first-round bye.
8. New Orleans Saints (10-5) [6] : Tough loss to the Panthers cost them the NFC South lead
9. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [10] : Nice win for the only team to have earned a division title going into last week
10. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) [9] : Knocked off the Seahawks to throw NFC seedings out the window
11. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [11] : Scored more points than they have in six years against a porous Bears rush defense.
12. San Diego Chargers (8-7) [13] : Nice game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : With three Top Ten teams and two confirmed playoff teams, this team will end the season on top.
2. AFC West [2] : The two best teams in the AFC live here, and the sixth seed could come from this division, too.
3 (tie). NFC South [3] : The Saints are faltering a bit, but this division is still likely to provide two playoff teams.
3 (tie). AFC East [6] : What a way to come roaring back! After being one of the worst divisions at the start of the season, they have performed well, accumulating the third best overall record behind the NFC West and AFC West.
5. AFC North [4] : Pitt won and Cincy won big, but bad losses to Baltimore and Cleveland hurt this division.
6. NFC North [5] : Very poor showing this week, with all teams suffering losses
7. NFC East [7] : Strong win for Philly and the Giants looked good, but they had too large a gap to overcome.
8. AFC South [8] : Far in the basement
Playoff race
It's gotten easy for the AFC, while the NFC is still wide open.
AFC East: New England Patriots win
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals win
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts win
AFC West: Denver Broncos win
AFC seeds: Denver gains the top seed with a win OR a Patriots loss. The Pats gain the top seed with a win AND Broncos loss. Even if Denver wins, New England gets a first-round bye with a win. If the Pats lose, the Bengals can gain the second seed with a win. If both New England and Cincy lose, Indy can gain the second seed with a win. Third seed is currently held by the Bengals. If New England wins and takes second, the Bengals clinch third seed with a win OR a Colts loss. The Colts need a Bengals loss AND a win themselves to take third, otherwise they are the fourth seed.
KC already has locked the fifth seed. The sixth seed gets interesting. If Miami wins and Baltimore loses, the Dolphins have it. If Miami and Baltimore win AND San Diego loses, the Ravens gain the wildcard due to a regular season victory over the Dolphins. However, if all three win, the Dolphins gain the sixth seed. Now, if all three LOSE and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers capture the final spot. That is the only hope Pittsburgh has, so that is very slim.
NFC East: The winner of the Philadelphia - Dallas showdown wins the division
NFC North: The winner of the Bears - Packers bout wins the division
NFC South: The Panthers gain the title if they win OR the Saints lose. The Saints need to win and have Atlanta upset Carolina in order to capture the title.
NFC West: The Seahawks win the division with a win OR 49ers loss. The 49ers get the title if they win and the Seahawks lose.
NFC Seeds: The winner of the NFC West gains the top seed. The winner of the NFC South gains the second seed. If the Eagles win the East, they capture the third seed. If Chicago wins the North and Dallas wins the East, the Bears capture the third seed. If the Bears lose, the NFC East winner is the third seed and Green Bay is the fourth seed. If the 49ers win, the NFC West runner-up is the fifth seed. If the Saints win and the 49ers lose and the Panthers win the NFC South, the Saints are the fifth seed and the 49ers are the sixth seed. If the Saints lose and the Cardinals win, the Cardinals are the sixth seed. If the Saints win and the Panthers win, the Saints are the sixth seed.
Here's something unusual -- EVEN SINGLE game this weekend is a divisional match-up.
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Baltimore needs a win to reach the playoffs, but Cincy won't make it easy. If the Bengals seed was set, or they had no chance at a first-round bye, they might rest their key players and give Baltimore a stronger chance to win. However, since they still have an outside chance at the second seed, they'll play hard. Baltimore is still smarting from the beating administered by the Patriots last week. BENGALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: A first round bye is the prize for Carolina if they win. That, plus their defense against a depleted Falcons offense, makes this pick easy. PANTHERS, 27-13
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers still have a long shot at a wildcard berth. Even if they were completely out of the playoff race, they'd still want to beat the Browns. STEELERS, 17-13
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Neither of these two are in the playoff hunt. Both teams might be playing for their coaches' careers, although it seems likely that both coaches will be fired next week anyway. For Detroit, this one may depend upon Matt Stafford's job. With the likelihood that Adrian Peterson will be out, I'll pick Detroit. LIONS, 24-13
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: The Titans halted their fall last week, and since they get to host the worst team in the league, they should end with a two-game winning streak. TITANS, 16-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts chances for any seed higher than fourth are slim, so they may rest players. That could allow the Jags to win the game. However, the Colts also know the value of momentum going into the playoffs. I think the stars will start, and then be pulled when they lead by enough. COLTS, 24-16
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins know they have to win to get a wildcard, and then hope Cincy beats the Ravens. They are playing the pathetic Jets offense, so they should get the first half of the equation. DOLPHINS, 21-10
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Only the third game with no playoff implications, this one is for pride. Kurt Cousins is starting for Washington, while the Giants' Eli Manning wants to put a bright conclusion on a career-disaster season. They should accomplish that, but they may go into their second consecutive overtime to do it. GIANTS, 23-20
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots have a shot at the number one seed. With that incentive, they won't be stopped. PATS, 31-17
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver needs one more victory to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, and that is important to them. Oakland is pretty devastated right now. The Raiders might give them some trouble early, but Peyton will sling some shots past their defenders and knock them down. BRONCOS, 34-16
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: I doubt Aaron Rodgers will start, with gives Chicago an edge. However, their run defense sucks, and Ed Lacy is having a great season. I'd favor the Pack, except they showed last week that their defense is also weak, and the Bears offense is potent. I'll give the Bears the edge, but Green Bay could take over this game with a ground assault. BEARS, 34-30
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The Chiefs have been a tremendous road team this season, but the Chargers can play divisional opponents tough. The difference might be the results from earlier in the day. If Miami wins and the Ravens lose, the Chargers have no wildcard slot to play for. That could remove much of their incentive to win. KC might rest their stars, as their seed is firmly established. If the Chargers still have a wildcard to play for, they will beat a resting Chiefs team. If not, this might be close, and definitely a snoozer. Since I think the Chargers will already know they have no shot at the playoffs, neither team will be playing hard. CHIEFS, 21-20
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Wow, this should be a great bout! Arizona already upset Seattle, and they are the hottest team right now. The 49ers have struggled on the road this season. The 49ers want a chance to win the top seed, but Arizona is playing for a wildcard spot. I have to go for the upset on this one. CARDINALS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are potent at home. They can be beaten, as Arizona proved, and the Rams have a strong defense. However, I think Seattle will prevail, although not by as much as they might want. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: This is an important game for the Saints. They will already know if they have a shot at the division title and the second seed. Even if Carolina wins earlier, they know a win is needed to remain ahead of the Cardinals and grab that sixth seed. They should get it against a weak Bucs team. SAINTS, 30-16
Sunday night
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: The loss of Tony Romo hurts this team's chances. Kyle Orton is good, but he can't keep pace with the Eagles offense, especially since the Cowboys defense stinks. EAGLES, 35-24
Top 12 Teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3) [1] : Their winning record at home was shattered this week, but they still maintain the top spot.
2. Denver Broncos (12-3) [3] : An impressive win gave them the AFC West title; now they are hoping for top seed in the AFC
3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4) [4] : The 49ers clinched the playoffs and are now competing for the division title
4. Carolina Panthers (11-4) [5] : The Panthers took the lead in the NFC South with a strong defensive performance.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) [2] :A tough loss cost them any chance at the division title and sewed up fifth seed.
6. New England Patriots (11-4) [7] : Strong win over the Ravens keeps their hopes for top seed alive
7. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) [8] : The Bengals had an impressive game to provide excellent momentum into the playoffs. They also keep alive hopes for a first-round bye.
8. New Orleans Saints (10-5) [6] : Tough loss to the Panthers cost them the NFC South lead
9. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [10] : Nice win for the only team to have earned a division title going into last week
10. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) [9] : Knocked off the Seahawks to throw NFC seedings out the window
11. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [11] : Scored more points than they have in six years against a porous Bears rush defense.
12. San Diego Chargers (8-7) [13] : Nice game to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : With three Top Ten teams and two confirmed playoff teams, this team will end the season on top.
2. AFC West [2] : The two best teams in the AFC live here, and the sixth seed could come from this division, too.
3 (tie). NFC South [3] : The Saints are faltering a bit, but this division is still likely to provide two playoff teams.
3 (tie). AFC East [6] : What a way to come roaring back! After being one of the worst divisions at the start of the season, they have performed well, accumulating the third best overall record behind the NFC West and AFC West.
5. AFC North [4] : Pitt won and Cincy won big, but bad losses to Baltimore and Cleveland hurt this division.
6. NFC North [5] : Very poor showing this week, with all teams suffering losses
7. NFC East [7] : Strong win for Philly and the Giants looked good, but they had too large a gap to overcome.
8. AFC South [8] : Far in the basement
Playoff race
It's gotten easy for the AFC, while the NFC is still wide open.
AFC East: New England Patriots win
AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals win
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts win
AFC West: Denver Broncos win
AFC seeds: Denver gains the top seed with a win OR a Patriots loss. The Pats gain the top seed with a win AND Broncos loss. Even if Denver wins, New England gets a first-round bye with a win. If the Pats lose, the Bengals can gain the second seed with a win. If both New England and Cincy lose, Indy can gain the second seed with a win. Third seed is currently held by the Bengals. If New England wins and takes second, the Bengals clinch third seed with a win OR a Colts loss. The Colts need a Bengals loss AND a win themselves to take third, otherwise they are the fourth seed.
KC already has locked the fifth seed. The sixth seed gets interesting. If Miami wins and Baltimore loses, the Dolphins have it. If Miami and Baltimore win AND San Diego loses, the Ravens gain the wildcard due to a regular season victory over the Dolphins. However, if all three win, the Dolphins gain the sixth seed. Now, if all three LOSE and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers capture the final spot. That is the only hope Pittsburgh has, so that is very slim.
NFC East: The winner of the Philadelphia - Dallas showdown wins the division
NFC North: The winner of the Bears - Packers bout wins the division
NFC South: The Panthers gain the title if they win OR the Saints lose. The Saints need to win and have Atlanta upset Carolina in order to capture the title.
NFC West: The Seahawks win the division with a win OR 49ers loss. The 49ers get the title if they win and the Seahawks lose.
NFC Seeds: The winner of the NFC West gains the top seed. The winner of the NFC South gains the second seed. If the Eagles win the East, they capture the third seed. If Chicago wins the North and Dallas wins the East, the Bears capture the third seed. If the Bears lose, the NFC East winner is the third seed and Green Bay is the fourth seed. If the 49ers win, the NFC West runner-up is the fifth seed. If the Saints win and the 49ers lose and the Panthers win the NFC South, the Saints are the fifth seed and the 49ers are the sixth seed. If the Saints lose and the Cardinals win, the Cardinals are the sixth seed. If the Saints win and the Panthers win, the Saints are the sixth seed.
Here's something unusual -- EVEN SINGLE game this weekend is a divisional match-up.
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Baltimore needs a win to reach the playoffs, but Cincy won't make it easy. If the Bengals seed was set, or they had no chance at a first-round bye, they might rest their key players and give Baltimore a stronger chance to win. However, since they still have an outside chance at the second seed, they'll play hard. Baltimore is still smarting from the beating administered by the Patriots last week. BENGALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: A first round bye is the prize for Carolina if they win. That, plus their defense against a depleted Falcons offense, makes this pick easy. PANTHERS, 27-13
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers still have a long shot at a wildcard berth. Even if they were completely out of the playoff race, they'd still want to beat the Browns. STEELERS, 17-13
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Neither of these two are in the playoff hunt. Both teams might be playing for their coaches' careers, although it seems likely that both coaches will be fired next week anyway. For Detroit, this one may depend upon Matt Stafford's job. With the likelihood that Adrian Peterson will be out, I'll pick Detroit. LIONS, 24-13
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: The Titans halted their fall last week, and since they get to host the worst team in the league, they should end with a two-game winning streak. TITANS, 16-13
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts chances for any seed higher than fourth are slim, so they may rest players. That could allow the Jags to win the game. However, the Colts also know the value of momentum going into the playoffs. I think the stars will start, and then be pulled when they lead by enough. COLTS, 24-16
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins know they have to win to get a wildcard, and then hope Cincy beats the Ravens. They are playing the pathetic Jets offense, so they should get the first half of the equation. DOLPHINS, 21-10
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Only the third game with no playoff implications, this one is for pride. Kurt Cousins is starting for Washington, while the Giants' Eli Manning wants to put a bright conclusion on a career-disaster season. They should accomplish that, but they may go into their second consecutive overtime to do it. GIANTS, 23-20
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots have a shot at the number one seed. With that incentive, they won't be stopped. PATS, 31-17
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Denver needs one more victory to clinch home field throughout the playoffs, and that is important to them. Oakland is pretty devastated right now. The Raiders might give them some trouble early, but Peyton will sling some shots past their defenders and knock them down. BRONCOS, 34-16
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: I doubt Aaron Rodgers will start, with gives Chicago an edge. However, their run defense sucks, and Ed Lacy is having a great season. I'd favor the Pack, except they showed last week that their defense is also weak, and the Bears offense is potent. I'll give the Bears the edge, but Green Bay could take over this game with a ground assault. BEARS, 34-30
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The Chiefs have been a tremendous road team this season, but the Chargers can play divisional opponents tough. The difference might be the results from earlier in the day. If Miami wins and the Ravens lose, the Chargers have no wildcard slot to play for. That could remove much of their incentive to win. KC might rest their stars, as their seed is firmly established. If the Chargers still have a wildcard to play for, they will beat a resting Chiefs team. If not, this might be close, and definitely a snoozer. Since I think the Chargers will already know they have no shot at the playoffs, neither team will be playing hard. CHIEFS, 21-20
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Wow, this should be a great bout! Arizona already upset Seattle, and they are the hottest team right now. The 49ers have struggled on the road this season. The 49ers want a chance to win the top seed, but Arizona is playing for a wildcard spot. I have to go for the upset on this one. CARDINALS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are potent at home. They can be beaten, as Arizona proved, and the Rams have a strong defense. However, I think Seattle will prevail, although not by as much as they might want. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: This is an important game for the Saints. They will already know if they have a shot at the division title and the second seed. Even if Carolina wins earlier, they know a win is needed to remain ahead of the Cardinals and grab that sixth seed. They should get it against a weak Bucs team. SAINTS, 30-16
Sunday night
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: The loss of Tony Romo hurts this team's chances. Kyle Orton is good, but he can't keep pace with the Eagles offense, especially since the Cowboys defense stinks. EAGLES, 35-24
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 15 Power rankings and picks
With the playoffs approaching, I will be looking at the Top Twelve teams, as twelve teams will be going to the playoffs. Will all of them come from the Top 12? In past years, at least one has not, and it looks like that will be true this year as well.
Top 12 teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2) [1] : Best defense in the league, best home record, balanced offensive attack. What's not to like?
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) [3] : Denver may hold the tiebreaker for division title, but the Chiefs' dominant victory boosted them
3. Denver Broncos (11-3) [2] : San Diego shocked them at home, and now Denver has a challenge for the top seed in the AFC
4. San Francisco 49ers (10-4) [5] : They controlled the game, but it was against the Bucs. They did prevent the potential letdown after finally beating Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
5. Carolina Panthers (10-4) [6] : Not a great win over the struggling Jets, but they climbed into the Top 5
6. New Orleans Saints (10-4) [4] : The Rams' defense stymied them, and now they face the tough Panthers defense.
7. New England Patriots (10-4) [7] : Tough loss, but the Pats still rule the AFC East and hold second place in the AFC
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) [8] : The Steelers beat them, and their AFC North title may be in jeopardy
9. Arizona Cardinals (9-5) [10] : The Titans took them to overtime, so the Cards still have some issues to resolve
10. Indianapolis Colts (9-5) [11] : They dominated Houston, but that's not much of a challenge these days. They are the only division winner crowned, and now they are firmly in the running for a playoff bye.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) [9] : They got clobbered by Minnesota, and their defense is very suspect
12. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) [13] : Their defense held back the Lions (although they got a really big assist from poor officiating) and they won with nothing but field goals.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : With three Top Ten teams, all of them potential playoff teams, this division excels
2. AFC West [2] : Having both Denver and KC, who have clinched playoff berths, gives this division a great advantage over others
3. NFC South [3] : Interesting division, with two teams with 10-4 records and two with 4-10 records.
4. AFC North [4] : With three teams still in the running for the playoffs, this is a closely fought division with surprising power
5. NFC North [5] : Another closely-embattled division, each of their teams have vulnerabilities that make their ability to win a playoff game questionnable.
6. AFC East [6] : This division flips from two playoff-eligible teams to two fairly pathetic teams
7. NFC East [7] : Philly and Dallas are battling for a likely fourth seed
8. AFC South [8] : Indy is the only division title holder because nobody else in this division holds much promise
Playoff races
KC is the only team that clinched a playoff spot this week, so lots of questions remain. In fact, a couple of divisions got even more confusing.
AFC East: The Pats clinch with a win OR a Dolphins loss. Miami needs to win out AND have the Pats lose BOTH of their remaining games. That doesn't seem likely.
AFC North: Baltimore holds the advantage over Cincy, so if Cincy loses and the Ravens win out, Baltimore gets the title. Unless the Ravens lose, the Bengals need to win out.
AFC West: Denver holds the tiebreaker, but this one may come down to the last week to decide.
AFC seeds: The AFC West winner is in best place to capture top seed -- that team definitely has a bye. The runner-up is clearly the fifth seed. The Pats currently hold the second seed, but one more loss makes that iffy. The Bengals hold the edge for third seed, and Indy plays KC this week, so a Colts loss and Bengals win will consign Indy to the fourth seed. The Ravens lead the charge of the sixth seed, but Miami has an easier schedule, so they could still snatch it. Pittsburgh and San Diego still have a chance, but neither can afford another loss.
NFC East: Philly leads by a game but Dallas holds the tiebreaker. Philly knows they need to win out, or hope Dallas loses again.
NFC North: Chicago now hold the lead, followed by Green Bay. Detroit is still alive, but they can't afford another loss. Detroit has the easier battle this week, so this division might get even more complicated.
NFC South: The Saints hold the tiebreaking lead right now, but a Panthers win this weekend shifts everything.
NFC West: Seattle can win the division with a win this week OR a 49ers loss.
NFC Seeds: Seattle gains the top seed with a win this week. That would put the winner of the NFC South in the second slot. The other division winners will fill third and fourth seeds, although which is which will depend much on this week's results. The NFC West and NFC South runner-ups are battling for the wildcard slots, with Arizona still having an outside chance. The Cardinals cannot lose another game of they fail to reach the playoffs. It looks like 11 wins will be required to make the playoffs as a wildcard.
I survived my rash of visiting picks last week. This week I pick fewer of them, and even have a couple of upsets in the mix.
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: Let's face it, the Jets are pretty pathetic. Cleveland should win without much effort. BROWNS, 23-17
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: There are serious questions about the Cowboys defense after the last two weeks. That would normally make them serious underdogs to any decent offense, but the Cowboys-Redskins match-ups are always dogfights. In that case, I have to favor the offensive power of the Cowboys, although either team could really win this one. COWBOYS, 27-24
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: This should be an easy win for the Broncos, as Houston stinks. BRONCOS, 38-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs need to keep winning, as they have a shot at the AFC West title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their defense will frustrate Andrew Luck and the Colts. CHIEFS, 27-23
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Miami beat New England last week. if they can prevent a letdown, they should beat Buffalo. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: Although the Vikes shocked Philly last week, I don't think they'll find Cincy so easy. This offense can move, and the defense is good enough to halt a third-string running back. BENGALS, 30-23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: The Saints beat Carolina in the Superbowl, but I think the Panthers will have the upper hand this time. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the league, and that defense will make things very difficult for the Saints. Carolina's offense has improved, and they should be able to get past the Saints defense, improved though that unit is this year. PANTHERS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at St Louis Rams: The Rams are probably the best 6-8 team we've seen in a while (and the Jets are the worst). This should be a smooth win for the Rams. RAMS, 26-20
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville's winning bubble burst last week, so Tennessee's better record makes them an obvious favorite, especially after stretching Arizona to overtime last week by scoring three times in the fourth quarter. However, Tennessee has been atrocious against divisional opponents and terrible on the road, so I like the Jags. JAGUARS, 23-20
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals need to win to maintain pace for the playoffs. However, beating Seattle at home is as tough as finding a real copper penny anymore. Arizona isn't that lucky. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: The defending Super Bowl Champs have started playing like that, while the Pats stumbled last week. It is extremely rare for Bill Belichick to lose two games in a row, though, and the loss of Gronk can be overcome - the Pats have been playing above their skill level for most of the season. While the Ravens could win this one, I'll pick the Pats. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Detroit Lions: The Giants defense has started to look better, but that defense isn't good enough to stop Calvin Johnson. Furthermore, the weak Giants offense can't keep pace with the Lions. LIONS, 27-16
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers need to win out to have any chance at the playoffs. This game will be a good first step, as they have the power to overcome the Raiders. CHARGERS, 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: We're not sure if Aaron Rodgers will be back, and a victory might depend upon that. Pittsburgh's defense is good enough to hinder the hobbled Packers offense, and they will likely win without Rodgers. Since Rodgers has been working out with the team all week, though, I suspect he will be back, so that will be my pick. PACKERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles could win this game, but it would require LeSean McCoy. The Bears running defense stinks. If they put the game in the hands of Nick Foles, which they have done since he assumed the starting role, the Bears secondary is good enough to spoil that. I think Chip Kelly will want to do that, as an aerial attack was crucial to the Ducks teams Kelly coached. BEARS, 31-30
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: The Falcons are in such disarray, they have no hope of getting back on track. Since the 49ers have rediscovered their defense, that's even worse for Matt Ryan and company. 49ERS, 23-13
Top 12 teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-2) [1] : Best defense in the league, best home record, balanced offensive attack. What's not to like?
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) [3] : Denver may hold the tiebreaker for division title, but the Chiefs' dominant victory boosted them
3. Denver Broncos (11-3) [2] : San Diego shocked them at home, and now Denver has a challenge for the top seed in the AFC
4. San Francisco 49ers (10-4) [5] : They controlled the game, but it was against the Bucs. They did prevent the potential letdown after finally beating Russell Wilson and the Seahawks
5. Carolina Panthers (10-4) [6] : Not a great win over the struggling Jets, but they climbed into the Top 5
6. New Orleans Saints (10-4) [4] : The Rams' defense stymied them, and now they face the tough Panthers defense.
7. New England Patriots (10-4) [7] : Tough loss, but the Pats still rule the AFC East and hold second place in the AFC
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) [8] : The Steelers beat them, and their AFC North title may be in jeopardy
9. Arizona Cardinals (9-5) [10] : The Titans took them to overtime, so the Cards still have some issues to resolve
10. Indianapolis Colts (9-5) [11] : They dominated Houston, but that's not much of a challenge these days. They are the only division winner crowned, and now they are firmly in the running for a playoff bye.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) [9] : They got clobbered by Minnesota, and their defense is very suspect
12. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) [13] : Their defense held back the Lions (although they got a really big assist from poor officiating) and they won with nothing but field goals.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : With three Top Ten teams, all of them potential playoff teams, this division excels
2. AFC West [2] : Having both Denver and KC, who have clinched playoff berths, gives this division a great advantage over others
3. NFC South [3] : Interesting division, with two teams with 10-4 records and two with 4-10 records.
4. AFC North [4] : With three teams still in the running for the playoffs, this is a closely fought division with surprising power
5. NFC North [5] : Another closely-embattled division, each of their teams have vulnerabilities that make their ability to win a playoff game questionnable.
6. AFC East [6] : This division flips from two playoff-eligible teams to two fairly pathetic teams
7. NFC East [7] : Philly and Dallas are battling for a likely fourth seed
8. AFC South [8] : Indy is the only division title holder because nobody else in this division holds much promise
Playoff races
KC is the only team that clinched a playoff spot this week, so lots of questions remain. In fact, a couple of divisions got even more confusing.
AFC East: The Pats clinch with a win OR a Dolphins loss. Miami needs to win out AND have the Pats lose BOTH of their remaining games. That doesn't seem likely.
AFC North: Baltimore holds the advantage over Cincy, so if Cincy loses and the Ravens win out, Baltimore gets the title. Unless the Ravens lose, the Bengals need to win out.
AFC West: Denver holds the tiebreaker, but this one may come down to the last week to decide.
AFC seeds: The AFC West winner is in best place to capture top seed -- that team definitely has a bye. The runner-up is clearly the fifth seed. The Pats currently hold the second seed, but one more loss makes that iffy. The Bengals hold the edge for third seed, and Indy plays KC this week, so a Colts loss and Bengals win will consign Indy to the fourth seed. The Ravens lead the charge of the sixth seed, but Miami has an easier schedule, so they could still snatch it. Pittsburgh and San Diego still have a chance, but neither can afford another loss.
NFC East: Philly leads by a game but Dallas holds the tiebreaker. Philly knows they need to win out, or hope Dallas loses again.
NFC North: Chicago now hold the lead, followed by Green Bay. Detroit is still alive, but they can't afford another loss. Detroit has the easier battle this week, so this division might get even more complicated.
NFC South: The Saints hold the tiebreaking lead right now, but a Panthers win this weekend shifts everything.
NFC West: Seattle can win the division with a win this week OR a 49ers loss.
NFC Seeds: Seattle gains the top seed with a win this week. That would put the winner of the NFC South in the second slot. The other division winners will fill third and fourth seeds, although which is which will depend much on this week's results. The NFC West and NFC South runner-ups are battling for the wildcard slots, with Arizona still having an outside chance. The Cardinals cannot lose another game of they fail to reach the playoffs. It looks like 11 wins will be required to make the playoffs as a wildcard.
I survived my rash of visiting picks last week. This week I pick fewer of them, and even have a couple of upsets in the mix.
Sunday early games
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: Let's face it, the Jets are pretty pathetic. Cleveland should win without much effort. BROWNS, 23-17
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: There are serious questions about the Cowboys defense after the last two weeks. That would normally make them serious underdogs to any decent offense, but the Cowboys-Redskins match-ups are always dogfights. In that case, I have to favor the offensive power of the Cowboys, although either team could really win this one. COWBOYS, 27-24
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: This should be an easy win for the Broncos, as Houston stinks. BRONCOS, 38-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs need to keep winning, as they have a shot at the AFC West title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their defense will frustrate Andrew Luck and the Colts. CHIEFS, 27-23
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Miami beat New England last week. if they can prevent a letdown, they should beat Buffalo. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: Although the Vikes shocked Philly last week, I don't think they'll find Cincy so easy. This offense can move, and the defense is good enough to halt a third-string running back. BENGALS, 30-23
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: The Saints beat Carolina in the Superbowl, but I think the Panthers will have the upper hand this time. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the league, and that defense will make things very difficult for the Saints. Carolina's offense has improved, and they should be able to get past the Saints defense, improved though that unit is this year. PANTHERS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at St Louis Rams: The Rams are probably the best 6-8 team we've seen in a while (and the Jets are the worst). This should be a smooth win for the Rams. RAMS, 26-20
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville's winning bubble burst last week, so Tennessee's better record makes them an obvious favorite, especially after stretching Arizona to overtime last week by scoring three times in the fourth quarter. However, Tennessee has been atrocious against divisional opponents and terrible on the road, so I like the Jags. JAGUARS, 23-20
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The Cardinals need to win to maintain pace for the playoffs. However, beating Seattle at home is as tough as finding a real copper penny anymore. Arizona isn't that lucky. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: The defending Super Bowl Champs have started playing like that, while the Pats stumbled last week. It is extremely rare for Bill Belichick to lose two games in a row, though, and the loss of Gronk can be overcome - the Pats have been playing above their skill level for most of the season. While the Ravens could win this one, I'll pick the Pats. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Detroit Lions: The Giants defense has started to look better, but that defense isn't good enough to stop Calvin Johnson. Furthermore, the weak Giants offense can't keep pace with the Lions. LIONS, 27-16
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers need to win out to have any chance at the playoffs. This game will be a good first step, as they have the power to overcome the Raiders. CHARGERS, 27-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: We're not sure if Aaron Rodgers will be back, and a victory might depend upon that. Pittsburgh's defense is good enough to hinder the hobbled Packers offense, and they will likely win without Rodgers. Since Rodgers has been working out with the team all week, though, I suspect he will be back, so that will be my pick. PACKERS, 26-23
Sunday night
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles could win this game, but it would require LeSean McCoy. The Bears running defense stinks. If they put the game in the hands of Nick Foles, which they have done since he assumed the starting role, the Bears secondary is good enough to spoil that. I think Chip Kelly will want to do that, as an aerial attack was crucial to the Ducks teams Kelly coached. BEARS, 31-30
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: The Falcons are in such disarray, they have no hope of getting back on track. Since the 49ers have rediscovered their defense, that's even worse for Matt Ryan and company. 49ERS, 23-13
Monday, December 16, 2013
NCAA 2013 Bowls
Welcome to the first of two bowl prediction columns. This one will take us to Dec 31, covering 19 of the 35 bowl games.
Dec 21
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Washington State Cougars (6-6) v Colorado State Rams (7-6): This match-up sounds like it'll be close, but I don't think so. Colorado State had some interesting wins, but overall their accomplishments wane in comparison to the level of competition experienced by the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE by 16
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- #19 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) v USC Trojans (9-4): It is strange to get a ranked team on the first day of bowl play, and extremely rare to get a one-loss team this early. This is a slap to the face against the Bulldogs, showing that the bowl officials don't respect them. Way to give them motivation, gentlemen! FRESNO STATE by 23
IDAHO BOWL -- Buffalo Bulls (8-4) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): This is only the second bowl game for the Bulls, and that inexperience could cost them. San Diego not only used to playing in bowl games, but they are more used to the altitude the teams will experience. I like the Aztecs' chances, although Buffalo could surprise. SAN DIEGO STATE by nine
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- Tulane Green Wave (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt often does surprisingly well in bowl games, and Tulane was just too inconsistent for me to have faith in them. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 18
Dec 23: ST PETERSBURGH BOWL -- East Carolina Pirates (9-3) v Ohio Bobcats (7-5): The MAC is a strong conference this year, but they have some tough matches. The bowl officials have shifted their disdain of teams from the Midwest from the Big Ten to the MAC, and Ohio will be the first victim. EAST CAROLINA by 17
Dec 24: HAWAII BOWL -- Boise State Broncos (8-4) v Oregon State Beavers (6-6): Don't let their 6-6 record fool you - the Beavers are a tough team. The Broncos may find that out, as the Beavers could give them everything they can handle. I think the Broncos are strong enough to come back and win this game, but the Beavers will keep it close. BOISE STATE by four
Dec 26
DETROIT (nee Cherry, now Little Caesars) BOWL -- Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) v #21 Bowling Green Falcons (10-3): Well, this one-sided bout won't really give a good impression of how strong the MAC is, as this will be such an easy victory. BOWLING GREEN by 30
POINSETTIA BOWL -- Utah State Aggies (8-5) v #15 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1): This could be an exciting game. The Aggies have won big often this season, but I think they'll find Huskies QB Jordan Lynch a bit too much to handle. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Dec 27
MILITARY BOWL -- Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) v Maryland Terrapins (7-5): Maryland keeps getting these tough opponents in their bowl match-ups. It's great that the Terrapins can get to bowl games, but I'm sure they'd like a better chance to win one. MARSHALL by 17
TEXAS BOWL -- Syracuse Orange (6-6) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6): Despite the similar records, this game won't be so close. Minnesota has a potent offense and a good enough defense to stall Syracuse. The Orange will have nightmares reliving the Northwestern rout as this game progresses. MINNESOTA by 15
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- BYU Cougars (8-4) b Washington Huskies (8-4): BYU accumulated an 8-4 record, which was higher than many analysts expected, but they did it mostly on the ground. Washington has a decent defense, and their passing attack is strong. WASHINGTON by 17
Dec 28
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): No, this isn't a basketball game; the Big East doesn't exist anymore! However, this one will end much like the basketball games between these two tended to. NOTRE DAME by 13
BELK BOWL -- Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): Another rather one-sided game. These early bowl games are often close, but this year they really have picked some one-sided bouts. CINCINNATI by 13
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL -- Miami Hurricanes (9-3) v #5 Louisville Cardinals (11-1): Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals should win this one easily, but they face a hostile crowd in the Hurricanes' backyard. As usual, a Florida team is given a bowl that is practically a home game for them. Louisville should still win, but this game will be closer than it should be. LOUISVILLE by six
BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL -- Michigan Wolverines (7-5) v Kansas State Wildcats (7-5): Kansas State is favored in this game, but I still remember the shock Michigan gave the Buckeyes in their game. The Wolverines have a strong offense, and the Wildcats defense proved a bit porous this season. MICHIGAN by ten
Dec 30
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) v Navy Midshipmen (8-4): I usually favor the military team in the military bowls, and Navy has earned this. Despite a slow start, the Midshipmen ended the season strongly, and re-established their bounding ground assault. They will wear down Middle Tennessee and pull away in the fourth quarter. NAVY by 11
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Ole Miss Rebels (7-5) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5): Ole Miss gave some of their SEC rivals fits this season, but they will falter against the staggering Jackets defense. GEORGIA TECH by 16
ALAMO BOWL -- #11 Oregon Ducks (10-2) v Texas Longhorns (8-4): This game will be a disappointment, mainly because neither team will play with much heart. Oregon didn't want to be in any bowl but the National Championship, so they really don't care to be here. Texas is suffering from the cloud hanging over the coaching position, whether Mack Brown stays or not. This could have been an exciting game, but now it will a lackluster performance. I'm not sure which team will win, as neither will be playing to their potential. I'll pick Oregon, just because they have enough talent that they can move the ball even if they don't intend to do so. OREGON by three
HOLIDAY BOWL -- #22 Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) v Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5): On the other hand, the Sun Devils WANT to win their bowl game, to show everyone what they are capable of doing. They have a strong offense as well; not as strong as Oregon's, but strong enough to push around the wimpy Tech defense. ARIZONA STATE by 20
Dec 21
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Washington State Cougars (6-6) v Colorado State Rams (7-6): This match-up sounds like it'll be close, but I don't think so. Colorado State had some interesting wins, but overall their accomplishments wane in comparison to the level of competition experienced by the Cougars. WASHINGTON STATE by 16
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- #19 Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) v USC Trojans (9-4): It is strange to get a ranked team on the first day of bowl play, and extremely rare to get a one-loss team this early. This is a slap to the face against the Bulldogs, showing that the bowl officials don't respect them. Way to give them motivation, gentlemen! FRESNO STATE by 23
IDAHO BOWL -- Buffalo Bulls (8-4) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): This is only the second bowl game for the Bulls, and that inexperience could cost them. San Diego not only used to playing in bowl games, but they are more used to the altitude the teams will experience. I like the Aztecs' chances, although Buffalo could surprise. SAN DIEGO STATE by nine
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- Tulane Green Wave (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): The Sun Belt often does surprisingly well in bowl games, and Tulane was just too inconsistent for me to have faith in them. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by 18
Dec 23: ST PETERSBURGH BOWL -- East Carolina Pirates (9-3) v Ohio Bobcats (7-5): The MAC is a strong conference this year, but they have some tough matches. The bowl officials have shifted their disdain of teams from the Midwest from the Big Ten to the MAC, and Ohio will be the first victim. EAST CAROLINA by 17
Dec 24: HAWAII BOWL -- Boise State Broncos (8-4) v Oregon State Beavers (6-6): Don't let their 6-6 record fool you - the Beavers are a tough team. The Broncos may find that out, as the Beavers could give them everything they can handle. I think the Broncos are strong enough to come back and win this game, but the Beavers will keep it close. BOISE STATE by four
Dec 26
DETROIT (nee Cherry, now Little Caesars) BOWL -- Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) v #21 Bowling Green Falcons (10-3): Well, this one-sided bout won't really give a good impression of how strong the MAC is, as this will be such an easy victory. BOWLING GREEN by 30
POINSETTIA BOWL -- Utah State Aggies (8-5) v #15 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1): This could be an exciting game. The Aggies have won big often this season, but I think they'll find Huskies QB Jordan Lynch a bit too much to handle. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Dec 27
MILITARY BOWL -- Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4) v Maryland Terrapins (7-5): Maryland keeps getting these tough opponents in their bowl match-ups. It's great that the Terrapins can get to bowl games, but I'm sure they'd like a better chance to win one. MARSHALL by 17
TEXAS BOWL -- Syracuse Orange (6-6) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6): Despite the similar records, this game won't be so close. Minnesota has a potent offense and a good enough defense to stall Syracuse. The Orange will have nightmares reliving the Northwestern rout as this game progresses. MINNESOTA by 15
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL -- BYU Cougars (8-4) b Washington Huskies (8-4): BYU accumulated an 8-4 record, which was higher than many analysts expected, but they did it mostly on the ground. Washington has a decent defense, and their passing attack is strong. WASHINGTON by 17
Dec 28
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4): No, this isn't a basketball game; the Big East doesn't exist anymore! However, this one will end much like the basketball games between these two tended to. NOTRE DAME by 13
BELK BOWL -- Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): Another rather one-sided game. These early bowl games are often close, but this year they really have picked some one-sided bouts. CINCINNATI by 13
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL -- Miami Hurricanes (9-3) v #5 Louisville Cardinals (11-1): Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals should win this one easily, but they face a hostile crowd in the Hurricanes' backyard. As usual, a Florida team is given a bowl that is practically a home game for them. Louisville should still win, but this game will be closer than it should be. LOUISVILLE by six
BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL -- Michigan Wolverines (7-5) v Kansas State Wildcats (7-5): Kansas State is favored in this game, but I still remember the shock Michigan gave the Buckeyes in their game. The Wolverines have a strong offense, and the Wildcats defense proved a bit porous this season. MICHIGAN by ten
Dec 30
ARMED FORCES BOWL -- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4) v Navy Midshipmen (8-4): I usually favor the military team in the military bowls, and Navy has earned this. Despite a slow start, the Midshipmen ended the season strongly, and re-established their bounding ground assault. They will wear down Middle Tennessee and pull away in the fourth quarter. NAVY by 11
MUSIC CITY BOWL -- Ole Miss Rebels (7-5) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5): Ole Miss gave some of their SEC rivals fits this season, but they will falter against the staggering Jackets defense. GEORGIA TECH by 16
ALAMO BOWL -- #11 Oregon Ducks (10-2) v Texas Longhorns (8-4): This game will be a disappointment, mainly because neither team will play with much heart. Oregon didn't want to be in any bowl but the National Championship, so they really don't care to be here. Texas is suffering from the cloud hanging over the coaching position, whether Mack Brown stays or not. This could have been an exciting game, but now it will a lackluster performance. I'm not sure which team will win, as neither will be playing to their potential. I'll pick Oregon, just because they have enough talent that they can move the ball even if they don't intend to do so. OREGON by three
HOLIDAY BOWL -- #22 Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) v Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5): On the other hand, the Sun Devils WANT to win their bowl game, to show everyone what they are capable of doing. They have a strong offense as well; not as strong as Oregon's, but strong enough to push around the wimpy Tech defense. ARIZONA STATE by 20
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 14 Power rankings and picks
Playoff spots are starting to be set, and more will be established in each week. Some teams who are on the edge stepped up their game this week, while others faltered. Let's see how things exist this week...
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-2) [1] : The Seahawks lost to the 49ers, but they clinched a playoff spot.
2. Denver Bronocs (11-2) [2] : The Broncos destroyed the Titans to maintain their one-game division lead, and they clinched a playoff spot.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) [6] : Big win over Washington has cost RGIII his starting spot.
4. New Orleans Saints (10-3) [5] : Big win over the Panthers gives them a one-game lead in the division and a playoff spot.
5. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) [4] : They beat Seattle (barely) and put them strongly in the wildcard hunt
6. Carolina Panthers (9-4) [3] : A huge loss cost them the division lead, but they are still strongly in the playoff hunt
7. New England Patriots (10-3) [7] : The Pats barely beat Cleveland, but they lost Rob Gronkowski for the rest of the season, and likely the post-season as well.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) [8] : They hold a two-game lead over Baltimore and a strong hold on the playoffs.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) [11] : Impressive game in terrible conditions, the Eagles took a game lead in the NFC East.
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) [12] : The Cards leap into the Top Ten with a dominant victory over the Rams
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : Three top ten teams, including the best team in the NFL, gives this division a seemingly unbeatable edge
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego won big, Matt McGloin had a good game despite a loss, and the Chiefs and Broncos still dominate the conference.
3. NFC South [3] : With one playoff team and another strongly in the mix, this division has demonstrated some power
4. AFC North [4] : Cleveland nearly beat the Patriots and Cincy won big, but Pittsburgh fell behind Miami and Baltimore needed some last minute heroics.
5. NFC North [5] : Chicago dominated and Green Bay pulled off a win, but Detroit faltered and the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson.
6. AFC East [6] : The Bills looked terrible, but the other teams won. This division is showing some life, but it's a bit too late.
7. NFC East [6] : Only Philly looked good. This division is falling back, and Dallas seems to have recaptured their December blues.
8. AFC South [8] : Tennessee lost big and Houston trails the league. No doubt which division will end in last place.
Playoff races:
AFC East: Pats are in the playoffs, and win the division with a win this week
AFC North: Cincy holds a two-game lead and wins the division with EITHER a win or Baltimore loss
AFC South: The Colts won the division
AFC West: This one will likely be decided in the last week. Denver leads, but KC trails by only a game
AFC seeds: Nobody is set, but the AFC West winner will likely be Number One; the runner-up will definitely be Number Five. New England seems primed for Number Two, unless the loss of Rob Gronkowski sets them back. Right now Cincy would be Number Three, Indy Number Four, and Miami Number Six.
NFC East: Philly holds a single game lead. Dallas holds the tiebreaker, so Philly is really hoping Dallas continues to drop. Washington is out of the hunt, and New York will be gone with a Philly win or Giants loss.
NFC North: Detroit and Chicago are tied, with the Lions holding the tiebreaker. Detroit seems to have the better schedule after this week, so 9-7 seems likely. That means Chicago needs to win out to capture the title. Green Bay has a slim chance, but they need help.
NFC South: New Orleans leads by one and holds the tiebreaker. They can capture the title with a win AND Panthers loss this week.
NFC West: Seattle leads by one and holds the tiebreaker, so they have the same chances as New Orleans.
NFC seeds: Seattle leads for top seeds, but New Orleans trails by only one. Those two will definitely have the first week byes. Carolina and the 49ers lead the wildcard race, but Arizona, Dallas, and Chicago still have chances.
I'm picking lots of visiting teams this week. That always makes me nervous.
Thursday night
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: San Diego has had good games, but not within the division. Denver is a force at home, and unbeaten against the AFC West. The Chargers offense is moving, but they cannot win in a shoot-out against Peyton Manning. BRONCOS, 33-27
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: I never thought I'd do this, but I have to favor the Jags. They are looking much better recently, while the Bills are downright atrocious. JAGS, 27-23
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: The Browns scared New England, but the Bears have a stronger offense. The Bears big weakness is their running defense, but the Browns don't have much of a running game. BEARS, 30-20
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have the division title, but seeding is important. They know top seed is out of their reach, but with Gronk's injury, they may hope to capture the second seed. They'll fight hard, and they've been very successful against division opponents. COLTS, 31-20
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: This will be a great battle. Tannehill will turn this into a passing duel, knowing Brady is lacking some of this favorite targets. The Pats have been very lucky this year, so I think they'll win, but watch out for Miami. PATS, 23-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: Philly's offense is rolling, while the Vikings' has taken a major hit in the injury to Adrian Peterson. EAGLES, 31-13
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: San Fran got their mojo back last week. They're battling for a playoff spot, so expect them to demolish Tampa Bay. 49ERS, 26-13
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: What do you get when you combine the weak Giants offense with the powerful Seattle defense? Possibly a shutout, although I won't pick that. SEAHAWKS, 27-10
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: The Redskins start a new quarterback this week. That can be a tough transition, especially since the receivers weren't going out of their way to catch RGIII's passes. FALCONS, 30-27
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: Carson Palmer has Arizona rolling, and they are battling for a playoff spot. They won't let up on the gas at all. CARDS, 27-20
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: It doesn't look like Aaron Rodgers will be back, but I'm sure they'll need him. The Cowboys were atrocious on Monday Night, signifying that their oft annual December collapse is underway. Given that Matt Flynn has looked more and more comfortable every week, I think the Pack will knock Dallas out of the playoff hunt. PACK, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Every single one of KC's losses this season have been to AFC West opponents, so the Raiders might pull off the upset. I'm not sure Matt McGloin is capable of that, though. CHIEFS, 30-16
New Orleans Saints at St Louis Rams: The Saints are in the playoffs, but they want a bye. Regardless of Philly's result, a win here will give them that. SAINTS, 30-20
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: Another pathetic offense against a strong defense. I still won't pick the shutout. PANTHERS, 28-6
Sunday night
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: These AFC North battles can be fierce battles, but the Bengals are on a great roll right now. Since they are hoping to leap New England for the second seed, they'll play hard. BENGALS, 27-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: Both teams are battling for a division title. While Detroit has the advantage in that race, neither team has been the picture of consistency. The Ravens are strongest on the national stage, so Monday Night Football might be an excellent chance for them to win. I've picked so few home teams that I'll favor the Lions, but I don't feel really confident about this pick. LIONS, 27-23
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-2) [1] : The Seahawks lost to the 49ers, but they clinched a playoff spot.
2. Denver Bronocs (11-2) [2] : The Broncos destroyed the Titans to maintain their one-game division lead, and they clinched a playoff spot.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) [6] : Big win over Washington has cost RGIII his starting spot.
4. New Orleans Saints (10-3) [5] : Big win over the Panthers gives them a one-game lead in the division and a playoff spot.
5. San Francisco 49ers (9-4) [4] : They beat Seattle (barely) and put them strongly in the wildcard hunt
6. Carolina Panthers (9-4) [3] : A huge loss cost them the division lead, but they are still strongly in the playoff hunt
7. New England Patriots (10-3) [7] : The Pats barely beat Cleveland, but they lost Rob Gronkowski for the rest of the season, and likely the post-season as well.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) [8] : They hold a two-game lead over Baltimore and a strong hold on the playoffs.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) [11] : Impressive game in terrible conditions, the Eagles took a game lead in the NFC East.
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) [12] : The Cards leap into the Top Ten with a dominant victory over the Rams
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : Three top ten teams, including the best team in the NFL, gives this division a seemingly unbeatable edge
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego won big, Matt McGloin had a good game despite a loss, and the Chiefs and Broncos still dominate the conference.
3. NFC South [3] : With one playoff team and another strongly in the mix, this division has demonstrated some power
4. AFC North [4] : Cleveland nearly beat the Patriots and Cincy won big, but Pittsburgh fell behind Miami and Baltimore needed some last minute heroics.
5. NFC North [5] : Chicago dominated and Green Bay pulled off a win, but Detroit faltered and the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson.
6. AFC East [6] : The Bills looked terrible, but the other teams won. This division is showing some life, but it's a bit too late.
7. NFC East [6] : Only Philly looked good. This division is falling back, and Dallas seems to have recaptured their December blues.
8. AFC South [8] : Tennessee lost big and Houston trails the league. No doubt which division will end in last place.
Playoff races:
AFC East: Pats are in the playoffs, and win the division with a win this week
AFC North: Cincy holds a two-game lead and wins the division with EITHER a win or Baltimore loss
AFC South: The Colts won the division
AFC West: This one will likely be decided in the last week. Denver leads, but KC trails by only a game
AFC seeds: Nobody is set, but the AFC West winner will likely be Number One; the runner-up will definitely be Number Five. New England seems primed for Number Two, unless the loss of Rob Gronkowski sets them back. Right now Cincy would be Number Three, Indy Number Four, and Miami Number Six.
NFC East: Philly holds a single game lead. Dallas holds the tiebreaker, so Philly is really hoping Dallas continues to drop. Washington is out of the hunt, and New York will be gone with a Philly win or Giants loss.
NFC North: Detroit and Chicago are tied, with the Lions holding the tiebreaker. Detroit seems to have the better schedule after this week, so 9-7 seems likely. That means Chicago needs to win out to capture the title. Green Bay has a slim chance, but they need help.
NFC South: New Orleans leads by one and holds the tiebreaker. They can capture the title with a win AND Panthers loss this week.
NFC West: Seattle leads by one and holds the tiebreaker, so they have the same chances as New Orleans.
NFC seeds: Seattle leads for top seeds, but New Orleans trails by only one. Those two will definitely have the first week byes. Carolina and the 49ers lead the wildcard race, but Arizona, Dallas, and Chicago still have chances.
I'm picking lots of visiting teams this week. That always makes me nervous.
Thursday night
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: San Diego has had good games, but not within the division. Denver is a force at home, and unbeaten against the AFC West. The Chargers offense is moving, but they cannot win in a shoot-out against Peyton Manning. BRONCOS, 33-27
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: I never thought I'd do this, but I have to favor the Jags. They are looking much better recently, while the Bills are downright atrocious. JAGS, 27-23
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: The Browns scared New England, but the Bears have a stronger offense. The Bears big weakness is their running defense, but the Browns don't have much of a running game. BEARS, 30-20
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts have the division title, but seeding is important. They know top seed is out of their reach, but with Gronk's injury, they may hope to capture the second seed. They'll fight hard, and they've been very successful against division opponents. COLTS, 31-20
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: This will be a great battle. Tannehill will turn this into a passing duel, knowing Brady is lacking some of this favorite targets. The Pats have been very lucky this year, so I think they'll win, but watch out for Miami. PATS, 23-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: Philly's offense is rolling, while the Vikings' has taken a major hit in the injury to Adrian Peterson. EAGLES, 31-13
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs: San Fran got their mojo back last week. They're battling for a playoff spot, so expect them to demolish Tampa Bay. 49ERS, 26-13
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: What do you get when you combine the weak Giants offense with the powerful Seattle defense? Possibly a shutout, although I won't pick that. SEAHAWKS, 27-10
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: The Redskins start a new quarterback this week. That can be a tough transition, especially since the receivers weren't going out of their way to catch RGIII's passes. FALCONS, 30-27
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: Carson Palmer has Arizona rolling, and they are battling for a playoff spot. They won't let up on the gas at all. CARDS, 27-20
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: It doesn't look like Aaron Rodgers will be back, but I'm sure they'll need him. The Cowboys were atrocious on Monday Night, signifying that their oft annual December collapse is underway. Given that Matt Flynn has looked more and more comfortable every week, I think the Pack will knock Dallas out of the playoff hunt. PACK, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Every single one of KC's losses this season have been to AFC West opponents, so the Raiders might pull off the upset. I'm not sure Matt McGloin is capable of that, though. CHIEFS, 30-16
New Orleans Saints at St Louis Rams: The Saints are in the playoffs, but they want a bye. Regardless of Philly's result, a win here will give them that. SAINTS, 30-20
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers: Another pathetic offense against a strong defense. I still won't pick the shutout. PANTHERS, 28-6
Sunday night
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: These AFC North battles can be fierce battles, but the Bengals are on a great roll right now. Since they are hoping to leap New England for the second seed, they'll play hard. BENGALS, 27-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: Both teams are battling for a division title. While Detroit has the advantage in that race, neither team has been the picture of consistency. The Ravens are strongest on the national stage, so Monday Night Football might be an excellent chance for them to win. I've picked so few home teams that I'll favor the Lions, but I don't feel really confident about this pick. LIONS, 27-23
Sunday, December 8, 2013
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 15
Upsets in the final week caused some interesting shake-ups in the Top 25. It also produced conference champions like Bowling Green, Rice, and Michigan State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [1] : Most definitely the most dominant offense in the country. I would love to see them go up against Alabama
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [3]
3. Baylor Bears (11-1) [8] : They followed up a slim victory against TCU with a dominant performance over Texas. Congratulations to the Big XII champion!
4. Auburn Tigers (12-1) [9] : The Tigers follow an SEC Championship with a bid in the National Championship Game
5. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [6] : Strong win over Arizona State puts two of the best defenses in the Rose Bowl
6. Louisville Cardinals (11-1) [5]
7. Michigan State Spartans (12-1) [10] : The other half of the Rose Bowl match-up. These two will make the 100th Rose Bowl a landmark event!
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [2] : They lost a bid to the National Championship Game with their second consecutive poor defensive showing.
9. Missouri Tigers (11-2) [4] : It was a massive battle, but Missouri came up short
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) [7] : So did the Cowboys, who failed to beat their in-state rivals and allowed Baylor their chance at the Big XII title.
11. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [12]
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [14]
13. UCF Golden Knights (11-1) [16] : UCF rested some of their guys once Louisville gave them the title on Thursday.
14. LSU Tigers (9-3) [15]
15. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) [11] : In perhaps the strangest conference championship, Bowling Green knocked off the previous unbeaten Huskies to secure a MAC title.
16. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [17]
17. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [18]
18. UCLA Bruins (9-3) [19]
19. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) [20] : They take the Mountain West title, but it wasn't pretty
20. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) [21] : Knocked off the Cowboys to cost them the Big XII title
21. Bowling Green Falcons (10-3) [23] : Completely destroyed Northern Illinois in the most shocking conference champion result of the weekend.
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) [13]
23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) [22]
24. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) [25]
25. Rice Owls (10-3) [NR] : Rice knocks off Marshall to capture the Conference USA title
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#24]
On the Edge: East Carolina Pirates (9-3), Washington Huskies (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4), Boise State Broncos (8-4), USC Trojans (9-4)
FCS Playoffs
To quote a line from ERIN BROCKOVICH: "You suck at this!" There have been more upsets in these playoffs than any year I can remember. Barely above 50%, I don't know how comfortable I feel about any of my picks.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The Bison won big over Furman, but the Chanticleers beat perennial powerhouse Montana, so you can't count them out. The Bison have been dominant all season long, so I see no reason (other than the plethora of upsets in the past two weekends) to pick against them. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by 24
#7 Towson Tigers at #2 Eastern Illinois Panthers: The Panthers had the most impressive victory of the weekend, but Towson's defense stiffened in the second half. This may not be an easy game for the Panthers, but I'm picking the win. EASTERN ILLINOIS by 17
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at #3 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Gamecocks have been perhaps the most surprising team of these playoffs, laying waste to each of their opponents. Eastern Washington had no difficulty beating South Dakota State, but something tells me the Gamecocks might give them some trouble. EASTERN WASHINGTON by 7
New Hampshire Wildcats at #4 Southeastern Louisiana Lions: I have to pick the upset here. The Lions barely edged out Sam Houston State while the Wildcats mauled Maine. NEW HAMPSHIRE by ten
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [1] : Most definitely the most dominant offense in the country. I would love to see them go up against Alabama
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [3]
3. Baylor Bears (11-1) [8] : They followed up a slim victory against TCU with a dominant performance over Texas. Congratulations to the Big XII champion!
4. Auburn Tigers (12-1) [9] : The Tigers follow an SEC Championship with a bid in the National Championship Game
5. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [6] : Strong win over Arizona State puts two of the best defenses in the Rose Bowl
6. Louisville Cardinals (11-1) [5]
7. Michigan State Spartans (12-1) [10] : The other half of the Rose Bowl match-up. These two will make the 100th Rose Bowl a landmark event!
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [2] : They lost a bid to the National Championship Game with their second consecutive poor defensive showing.
9. Missouri Tigers (11-2) [4] : It was a massive battle, but Missouri came up short
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) [7] : So did the Cowboys, who failed to beat their in-state rivals and allowed Baylor their chance at the Big XII title.
11. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [12]
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [14]
13. UCF Golden Knights (11-1) [16] : UCF rested some of their guys once Louisville gave them the title on Thursday.
14. LSU Tigers (9-3) [15]
15. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) [11] : In perhaps the strangest conference championship, Bowling Green knocked off the previous unbeaten Huskies to secure a MAC title.
16. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [17]
17. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [18]
18. UCLA Bruins (9-3) [19]
19. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1) [20] : They take the Mountain West title, but it wasn't pretty
20. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) [21] : Knocked off the Cowboys to cost them the Big XII title
21. Bowling Green Falcons (10-3) [23] : Completely destroyed Northern Illinois in the most shocking conference champion result of the weekend.
22. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) [13]
23. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) [22]
24. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) [25]
25. Rice Owls (10-3) [NR] : Rice knocks off Marshall to capture the Conference USA title
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#24]
On the Edge: East Carolina Pirates (9-3), Washington Huskies (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (9-4), Boise State Broncos (8-4), USC Trojans (9-4)
FCS Playoffs
To quote a line from ERIN BROCKOVICH: "You suck at this!" There have been more upsets in these playoffs than any year I can remember. Barely above 50%, I don't know how comfortable I feel about any of my picks.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The Bison won big over Furman, but the Chanticleers beat perennial powerhouse Montana, so you can't count them out. The Bison have been dominant all season long, so I see no reason (other than the plethora of upsets in the past two weekends) to pick against them. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by 24
#7 Towson Tigers at #2 Eastern Illinois Panthers: The Panthers had the most impressive victory of the weekend, but Towson's defense stiffened in the second half. This may not be an easy game for the Panthers, but I'm picking the win. EASTERN ILLINOIS by 17
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at #3 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Gamecocks have been perhaps the most surprising team of these playoffs, laying waste to each of their opponents. Eastern Washington had no difficulty beating South Dakota State, but something tells me the Gamecocks might give them some trouble. EASTERN WASHINGTON by 7
New Hampshire Wildcats at #4 Southeastern Louisiana Lions: I have to pick the upset here. The Lions barely edged out Sam Houston State while the Wildcats mauled Maine. NEW HAMPSHIRE by ten
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
NFL 2013 Power rankings and picks
Some teams are showing life again. San Fran got it together and crushed St Louis, Seattle's defense stopped the powerful Saints offense, and Detroit lit up the scoreboard. We are hitting an interesting point of the season!
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-1) [1] : On Monday night they proved that they can't be stopped at home. Since they have a two-game lead on home field advantage, they may be traveling to New Jersey for the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (10-2) [3] : They bounced back from a terrible collapse in New England to take a second game from the Chiefs.
3. Carolina Panthers (9-3) [4] : Call me crazy, but I think they have the inside track to win the division and take the second seed in the NFC.
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-4) [6] : The defense woke up and they smote the Rams, who previously had a 3-0-1 record against them in previous games.
5. New Orleans Saints (9-3) [2] : They just looked atrocious against Seattle
6. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) [5] : Three consecutive losses after a 9-0 start, and their defense is slipping. Things suddenly don't look good for the Chiefs, especially since all three of those losses have been to divisional opponents.
7. New England Patriots (9-3) [7] : Their defense let the struggling Texans score 31 points, but the offense never gave up.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) [8] : Impressive game after the bye, they didn't let an early surge by San Diego phase them.
9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [10] : Just when we think the Colts might be fizzling out, they put together an impressive late drive to beat Tennessee
10. Detroit Lions (8-4) [14] : One of their most impressive Thanksgiving Day victories in decades, it broke a nine-year losing streak
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : Despite a loss by Arizona this week, Carson Palmer still has that team in position. The 49ers are back up, and the Seahawks are unbeatable
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego is falling, and the Chiefs may be also, but they still rule the AFC right now.
3. NFC South [3] : Two clear playoff teams in New Orleans and Carolina make this clearly the second best division in the NFC
4. AFC North [4] : They are coming back, thanks to impressive wins by Cincy and Baltimore this week
5. NFC North [5] : Detroit was impressive, but the rest need help
6 (tie). AFC East [6] : The Patriots don't win impressively while the Jets and Bills are collapsing. Is it any wonder this division is poised to fall?
6 (tie). NFC East [7] : And surprisingly, it is their counterpart in the NFC ready to surpass them. After looking plumb awful in the middle of the season, Dallas, Philly and the Giants are showing power, and even Washington can still threaten.
8. AFC South [8] : Houston is now the only two-win team in the league, Tennessee is falling, and Jacksonville still has a ways to go to compete. No question this division seems stuck at the bottom.
Now that only four weeks remain in the season, let's look at the divisional and playoff seed races:
AFC East: The Patriots hold a three-game lead in the division. Only Miami stands any chance to unseat them. A loss by Miami and a win by New England this weekend clinches the division.
AFC North: Cincy holds a two-game lead. Mathematically anyone can still win, although Cleveland's chances are slim. The Bengals host Indy while the Ravens get Minnesota, so this lead may shrink to only one game.
AFC South: Indy holds a three-game lead and a perfect division record. A win by Indy OR a loss by Tennessee awards the division to the Colts.
AFC West: Denver holds a one-game lead and a perfect division record over the Chiefs. Nobody else has a chance at the title. It'll take at least two weeks for Denver to clinch, so let's see how this one plays out.
AFC Playoff seeds: Denver has a one game lead for Number One, but New England holds the tiebreaker. Cincy and Indy are battling for the next two spots. The second place team in the AFC West will have the fifth seed, and there are plenty of teams vying for the last spot.
NFC East: Dallas holds the tiebreaker over Philly, but this division is in the midst of a battle. Washington is now out of the race, but the Giants have an outside chance.
NFC North : While Green Bay inept without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears running defense ineffective, the Lions have the best chance to win, even if they only hold a one-game lead over Chicago.
NFC South: Carolina looks better than New Orleans, and they face each other this week. A Panthers win gives them the edge in the divisional race.
NFC West: Seattle leads by three and plays San Fran this week. A Seattle win clinches the division.
NFC Playoff seeds: Seattle leads by two, and a win this week gives them a huge edge for home field advantage. Clearly the NFC South winner will get the second seed. Detroit seems poised to get the third seed, leaving the fourth seed to the NFC East winner. The NFC South runner-up will likely garner the fifth seed, and San Fran leads the race for sixth seed.
Thursday night game
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Houston now has the worst record in the league. Jacksonville began their winning ways by beating Houston, and starting former Wolverine Chad Henne. Henne is producing good numbers for Jacksonville, and the Texans self-destruct. They held it together this past week, but they can't go error-free for two consecutive weeks. For the first time all season, I pick the Jaguars! JAGS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: Both of these teams are suffering major losses in their offense due to injury. Atlanta showed some life last week, while Green Bay is completely listless without Aaron Rodgers. FALCONS, 24-13
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs three-game winning streak was halted last week, but they have definitely been showing strength recently. The Bills cannot get it together on either side of the ball. BUCS, 26-20
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: The Patriots defense will allow Cleveland to score more than expected, but the offense will again win the game for them. PATS, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: These two teams are more evenly matched than you might think. Both have tremendous offensive tools. The Lions defense has shown up the past couple of weeks, and that might make the difference in the game. LIONS, 30-27
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: The Colts showed some life this week, but Andrew Luck still looks shaky. Without some of his reliable targets, he can't move the ball with the same confidence. Cincy, on the other hand, keeps the offense moving. BENGALS, 26-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: The Chiefs defense may have slipped, but they can still stop an offensive-challenged Redskins team. CHIEFS, 30-20
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Miami showed up well this past week, but they were playing the pathetic Jets. The Steelers, on the other hand, are another matter entirely. They have a tighter defense and a passing offense that works. The running game for Pittsburgh is not consistent, but they can get the job done when it counts. STEELERS, 24-21
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: The Vikings won't be able to move the ball on the ground as effectively as they did last week, so Matt Cassel will have to step up. He brought the Vikings back last week, but it might be asking too much to do so this week. RAVENS, 27-20
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: It looks like Terrelle Pryor might be back this week. As for the Jets, it doesn't really matter who plays quarterback, their passing game will still be a joke. RAIDERS, 23-13
Sunday late games
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: A match-up of two 5-7 teams who have the personnel and the talent to do better. Both have had good games, and both have stunk at various times. So who will take the field? The Giants are missing their spark. They seem to have given up on themselves when they failed to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago. Yes, they beat Washington last week, but the Redskins practically handed that game, considering the number of mistakes they made. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been making plenty of errors, too, but I think they recover better from them. CHARGERS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: A win clinches the division for Seattle and keeps them two games ahead of the Carolina - Saints winner for home field advantage. Add to that the fact that Seattle seems to have San Fran's number, and we'll grant this one to the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: I think the loss to the 49ers, who the Rams had dominated for two years, will deflate them. The Cardinals tough loss will embolden Carson Palmer, who will pass for over 200 yards and outplay the Rams. CARDINALS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: The Titans defense isn't good enough to stop Peyton, and their offense definitely can't keep pace. BRONCOS, 31-20
Sunday night game
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Whoa, this should be a great game! Carolina is playing great and are staring down a league-leading eight-game winning streak. New Orleans has played well, but tough defenses have tormented them. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the NFC. The Saints are unbeaten at home, though, so they'll get an extra boost. I'll pick the Panthers, but watch for the upset. PANTHERS, 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: Two statistical measures come to a head in this game -- the Bears' atrocious record on Monday Night Football and Tony Romo's atrocious record in December. While Romo has statistically the best November record of any active quarterback with at least three years experience, he also has the WORST December record in that same class. In fact, he has the worst record in December of any quarterback (ten December games minimum) in the past 20 years! So which stat will rule this game? Dallas fans are claiming that Romo's December woes are behind him. I'll believe that when I see it. He's been in the league long enough that he should have reversed that trend before now. For the Bears, it's harder to identify why they play so poorly on Monday Night. It just seems to be bad karma. I also know that they do worse on Monday Night if I have the nerve to pick them. Therefore, I will pick the Cowboys so that my Bears have a better chance. Let the Romo December chill begin! COWBOYS, 27-24
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (11-1) [1] : On Monday night they proved that they can't be stopped at home. Since they have a two-game lead on home field advantage, they may be traveling to New Jersey for the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (10-2) [3] : They bounced back from a terrible collapse in New England to take a second game from the Chiefs.
3. Carolina Panthers (9-3) [4] : Call me crazy, but I think they have the inside track to win the division and take the second seed in the NFC.
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-4) [6] : The defense woke up and they smote the Rams, who previously had a 3-0-1 record against them in previous games.
5. New Orleans Saints (9-3) [2] : They just looked atrocious against Seattle
6. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) [5] : Three consecutive losses after a 9-0 start, and their defense is slipping. Things suddenly don't look good for the Chiefs, especially since all three of those losses have been to divisional opponents.
7. New England Patriots (9-3) [7] : Their defense let the struggling Texans score 31 points, but the offense never gave up.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) [8] : Impressive game after the bye, they didn't let an early surge by San Diego phase them.
9. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [10] : Just when we think the Colts might be fizzling out, they put together an impressive late drive to beat Tennessee
10. Detroit Lions (8-4) [14] : One of their most impressive Thanksgiving Day victories in decades, it broke a nine-year losing streak
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : Despite a loss by Arizona this week, Carson Palmer still has that team in position. The 49ers are back up, and the Seahawks are unbeatable
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego is falling, and the Chiefs may be also, but they still rule the AFC right now.
3. NFC South [3] : Two clear playoff teams in New Orleans and Carolina make this clearly the second best division in the NFC
4. AFC North [4] : They are coming back, thanks to impressive wins by Cincy and Baltimore this week
5. NFC North [5] : Detroit was impressive, but the rest need help
6 (tie). AFC East [6] : The Patriots don't win impressively while the Jets and Bills are collapsing. Is it any wonder this division is poised to fall?
6 (tie). NFC East [7] : And surprisingly, it is their counterpart in the NFC ready to surpass them. After looking plumb awful in the middle of the season, Dallas, Philly and the Giants are showing power, and even Washington can still threaten.
8. AFC South [8] : Houston is now the only two-win team in the league, Tennessee is falling, and Jacksonville still has a ways to go to compete. No question this division seems stuck at the bottom.
Now that only four weeks remain in the season, let's look at the divisional and playoff seed races:
AFC East: The Patriots hold a three-game lead in the division. Only Miami stands any chance to unseat them. A loss by Miami and a win by New England this weekend clinches the division.
AFC North: Cincy holds a two-game lead. Mathematically anyone can still win, although Cleveland's chances are slim. The Bengals host Indy while the Ravens get Minnesota, so this lead may shrink to only one game.
AFC South: Indy holds a three-game lead and a perfect division record. A win by Indy OR a loss by Tennessee awards the division to the Colts.
AFC West: Denver holds a one-game lead and a perfect division record over the Chiefs. Nobody else has a chance at the title. It'll take at least two weeks for Denver to clinch, so let's see how this one plays out.
AFC Playoff seeds: Denver has a one game lead for Number One, but New England holds the tiebreaker. Cincy and Indy are battling for the next two spots. The second place team in the AFC West will have the fifth seed, and there are plenty of teams vying for the last spot.
NFC East: Dallas holds the tiebreaker over Philly, but this division is in the midst of a battle. Washington is now out of the race, but the Giants have an outside chance.
NFC North : While Green Bay inept without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears running defense ineffective, the Lions have the best chance to win, even if they only hold a one-game lead over Chicago.
NFC South: Carolina looks better than New Orleans, and they face each other this week. A Panthers win gives them the edge in the divisional race.
NFC West: Seattle leads by three and plays San Fran this week. A Seattle win clinches the division.
NFC Playoff seeds: Seattle leads by two, and a win this week gives them a huge edge for home field advantage. Clearly the NFC South winner will get the second seed. Detroit seems poised to get the third seed, leaving the fourth seed to the NFC East winner. The NFC South runner-up will likely garner the fifth seed, and San Fran leads the race for sixth seed.
Thursday night game
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Houston now has the worst record in the league. Jacksonville began their winning ways by beating Houston, and starting former Wolverine Chad Henne. Henne is producing good numbers for Jacksonville, and the Texans self-destruct. They held it together this past week, but they can't go error-free for two consecutive weeks. For the first time all season, I pick the Jaguars! JAGS, 24-23
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: Both of these teams are suffering major losses in their offense due to injury. Atlanta showed some life last week, while Green Bay is completely listless without Aaron Rodgers. FALCONS, 24-13
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs three-game winning streak was halted last week, but they have definitely been showing strength recently. The Bills cannot get it together on either side of the ball. BUCS, 26-20
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: The Patriots defense will allow Cleveland to score more than expected, but the offense will again win the game for them. PATS, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: These two teams are more evenly matched than you might think. Both have tremendous offensive tools. The Lions defense has shown up the past couple of weeks, and that might make the difference in the game. LIONS, 30-27
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: The Colts showed some life this week, but Andrew Luck still looks shaky. Without some of his reliable targets, he can't move the ball with the same confidence. Cincy, on the other hand, keeps the offense moving. BENGALS, 26-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: The Chiefs defense may have slipped, but they can still stop an offensive-challenged Redskins team. CHIEFS, 30-20
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Miami showed up well this past week, but they were playing the pathetic Jets. The Steelers, on the other hand, are another matter entirely. They have a tighter defense and a passing offense that works. The running game for Pittsburgh is not consistent, but they can get the job done when it counts. STEELERS, 24-21
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens: The Vikings won't be able to move the ball on the ground as effectively as they did last week, so Matt Cassel will have to step up. He brought the Vikings back last week, but it might be asking too much to do so this week. RAVENS, 27-20
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: It looks like Terrelle Pryor might be back this week. As for the Jets, it doesn't really matter who plays quarterback, their passing game will still be a joke. RAIDERS, 23-13
Sunday late games
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: A match-up of two 5-7 teams who have the personnel and the talent to do better. Both have had good games, and both have stunk at various times. So who will take the field? The Giants are missing their spark. They seem to have given up on themselves when they failed to beat the Cowboys two weeks ago. Yes, they beat Washington last week, but the Redskins practically handed that game, considering the number of mistakes they made. Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been making plenty of errors, too, but I think they recover better from them. CHARGERS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: A win clinches the division for Seattle and keeps them two games ahead of the Carolina - Saints winner for home field advantage. Add to that the fact that Seattle seems to have San Fran's number, and we'll grant this one to the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: I think the loss to the 49ers, who the Rams had dominated for two years, will deflate them. The Cardinals tough loss will embolden Carson Palmer, who will pass for over 200 yards and outplay the Rams. CARDINALS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: The Titans defense isn't good enough to stop Peyton, and their offense definitely can't keep pace. BRONCOS, 31-20
Sunday night game
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Whoa, this should be a great game! Carolina is playing great and are staring down a league-leading eight-game winning streak. New Orleans has played well, but tough defenses have tormented them. Carolina has one of the toughest defenses in the NFC. The Saints are unbeaten at home, though, so they'll get an extra boost. I'll pick the Panthers, but watch for the upset. PANTHERS, 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: Two statistical measures come to a head in this game -- the Bears' atrocious record on Monday Night Football and Tony Romo's atrocious record in December. While Romo has statistically the best November record of any active quarterback with at least three years experience, he also has the WORST December record in that same class. In fact, he has the worst record in December of any quarterback (ten December games minimum) in the past 20 years! So which stat will rule this game? Dallas fans are claiming that Romo's December woes are behind him. I'll believe that when I see it. He's been in the league long enough that he should have reversed that trend before now. For the Bears, it's harder to identify why they play so poorly on Monday Night. It just seems to be bad karma. I also know that they do worse on Monday Night if I have the nerve to pick them. Therefore, I will pick the Cowboys so that my Bears have a better chance. Let the Romo December chill begin! COWBOYS, 27-24
Sunday, December 1, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 15 picks
As usual, rivalry week gave us a large number of upsets and surprising results. Michigan, playing in the Big House, kept it close against Ohio State. Since they weren't sure they could stop Carlos Hyde in overtime, they went for a 2-point conversion to win instead of kicking the extra point for a tie. The Buckeyes prevented the score and saved themselves the embarrassment of a loss. Alabama didn't fare so well in the Iron Bowl. Despite leading at halftime, the Tigers kept them confused in the second half, and pulled off the upset victory. South Carolina shocked Clemson (and me!) with their easy dominance over Tahj Boyd and company. UCLA also dominated their crosstown rival USC, and Louisiana-Monroe upset in-state rival Louisiana-Lafayette.
We had some upsets and surprises not related to long-standing rivalries, too. Marshall was hugely dominant in a win over East Carolina. San Jose State upset Fresno State, handing them their first loss of the season. Saturday dawned with UConn beating Rutgers and winless Temple topping Memphis, then continued with winless Southern Miss knocking off UAB and Penn State shocking Wisconsin.
We have regular games and conference championships to discuss. I've even thrown in picks for the second round of the FCS playoffs!
Thursday Dec 5
#5 Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats: This is Teddy Bridgewater's last chance to impress Heisman voters, so I think he'll have a good night. This game is doubly important if UCF stumbles against SMU. LOUISVILLE by 13
#21 Oklahoma Sooners at #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This game is important for the Cowboys, as they can win the Big XII title with a victory. I don't expect Oklahoma to make it easy for the home team, though. OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
Texas Longhorns at #8 Baylor Bears: The previous game will already be over when this game begins, so Baylor and Texas will know if a Big XII title is on the line. Baylor will want to win anyway, to improve their bowl status. Texas has quelled the cries for Mack Brown's job, so if the conference title is not on the line, I'm not sure how much fight they will have. BAYLOR by 20
#16 UCF Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: The Knights can clinch the first American Athletic Conference title with a win. I think they'll do it, but it might not be as easy as they will think. SMU can play tough, and may take an early lead. UCF will ultimately win, though. UCF by nine
FCS playoffs
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #8 Montana Grizzlies: Coastal Carolina is a relative newcomer to the playoffs, They had a strong opening round game, but now the competition gets stiffer. Montana is experienced in these situations, having won the FCS title a few times. I like the Grizzlies talent, and I think their experience will give them an edge. MONTANA by nine
Fordham Rams at #7 Towson Tigers: Both of these teams have been in these playoffs before. Fordham has a slightly better record in the playoffs, as well as having a better 12-1 record against the ranked Tigers. While Sacred Heart gave Fordham some problems in the first round, I like the Rams' chances to advance here. FORDHAM by six
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at #6 McNeese State Cowboys: These Gamecocks don't play quite as well as the those in South Carolina, but they do have a similar 10-3 record. Despite that, McNeese is an old hand at these playoffs, often beating teams with better records. I like their chances, despite the overwhelming first round victory that brought the Gamecocks here. MCNEESE STATE by 12
New Hampshire Wildcats at #5 Maine Black Bears: These two teams face off frequently; in fact, they just faced each other two weeks ago. Then, the Wildcats beat Maine. However, that was a home game for the Wildcats, and now the Black Bears want revenge. I like Maine in the rematch. MAINE by eight
Sam Houston State Bearkats at #4 Southeastern Louisiana Lions: Louisiana teams have been doing well in important games this season. Sam Houston has the experience, and they might win, but I'm drawn to the magic that has been building in the Bayou State. SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA by six
South Dakota State Jackrabbits at #3 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Jackrabbits would love a chance to face North Dakota State, but first they need to get past the Eagles. They might, as Eastern Washington has a history of faltering in these playoffs, but I'll give the slight edge to the home team. Watch out for the upset, though! EASTERN WASHINGTON by three
Tennessee State Tigers at #2 Eastern Illinois Panthers: Tennessee State had an impressive blowout shutout of Butler in the first round to get here, but I have to favor the strong 11-1 Panthers. EASTERN ILLINOIS by 16
Furman Paladins at North Dakota State Bison: The Bison are unbeaten, thanks to their opening week upset of Kansas State. I'll be favoring them throughout the playoffs. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by 20
Conference Championships
MAC - #23 Bowling Green Falcons v #11 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies want the win to gain a spot in a BCS bowl. Bowling Green won't make that desire easy, as they are a strong team. However, I don't think their defense can slow down all-purpose QB Jordan Lynch. Lynch is actually my favorite for the Heisman, followed by Teddy Bridgewater. If Lynch has another colossal performance, there may be many more people who agree with me. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 13
SEC - #4 Missouri Tigers v #9 Auburn Tigers: I'm sure everyone will be favoring Auburn after their win over Alabama, but I'm going the other way. Gux Malzahn mistakenly gave Missouri all the incentive they need for their defense to spank the Tigers - by overlooking them! Gux Malzahn, in his post-game interview, stated that it was be a "crime against the nation" if Auburn was not granted a spot in the National Championship Game after beating Alabama. Uh, excuse me, Coach Malzahn, but you still have another game to play. Ignore Missouri at your own peril! The Tigers are motivated to knock off Auburn, and that will definitely open the door to the National Championship to Ohio State. MISSOURI by three
PAC-12 - #6 Stanford Cardinal v Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils have a strong offense, but strong offenses don't bother the Stanford defense. After all, they not only slowed by STOPPED the Ducks high-powered offense. I see a similar result brewing here. STANFORD by ten
MOUNTAIN WEST - #20 Fresno State Bulldogs v Utah State Aggies: The Bulldogs are not playing for an unbeaten season and BCS bowl, but I don't think they'll be so disappointed to lose this game. They just have too many tools, more than the Aggies can stop. FRESNO STATE by 16
ACC - #24 Duke Blue Devils v #1 Florida State Seminoles: Duke has had a historic season, but midnight is chiming. The Seminoles are just too strong, and the Tallahassee police are delaying any action against Jameis Winston until after this game and the Heisman results are announced. I'm not sure they can delay it all the way until the National Championship Game, but Florida State will at least gain a spot to that game. FLORIDA STATE by 23
BIG TEN - #2 Ohio State Buckeyes v #10 Michigan State Spartans: The SEC Championship Game will be over by the time this game starts, so Ohio State will know just how impressive they need to be. Their defense struggled against Michigan, but that was a strong offense. Strong offenses have played well against Ohio State this season (Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan), but the Buckeyes dominate against lesser offenses. The Spartans defense, though, is stronger than anything Ohio State has seen. Can they get past that? I think so, but the winning margin may be smaller than the Buckeyes would like. Fortunately, a Missouri win in the SEC Championship will eliminate the need for a large margin of victory. OHIO STATE by six
We had some upsets and surprises not related to long-standing rivalries, too. Marshall was hugely dominant in a win over East Carolina. San Jose State upset Fresno State, handing them their first loss of the season. Saturday dawned with UConn beating Rutgers and winless Temple topping Memphis, then continued with winless Southern Miss knocking off UAB and Penn State shocking Wisconsin.
We have regular games and conference championships to discuss. I've even thrown in picks for the second round of the FCS playoffs!
Thursday Dec 5
#5 Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats: This is Teddy Bridgewater's last chance to impress Heisman voters, so I think he'll have a good night. This game is doubly important if UCF stumbles against SMU. LOUISVILLE by 13
#21 Oklahoma Sooners at #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This game is important for the Cowboys, as they can win the Big XII title with a victory. I don't expect Oklahoma to make it easy for the home team, though. OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
Texas Longhorns at #8 Baylor Bears: The previous game will already be over when this game begins, so Baylor and Texas will know if a Big XII title is on the line. Baylor will want to win anyway, to improve their bowl status. Texas has quelled the cries for Mack Brown's job, so if the conference title is not on the line, I'm not sure how much fight they will have. BAYLOR by 20
#16 UCF Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: The Knights can clinch the first American Athletic Conference title with a win. I think they'll do it, but it might not be as easy as they will think. SMU can play tough, and may take an early lead. UCF will ultimately win, though. UCF by nine
FCS playoffs
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #8 Montana Grizzlies: Coastal Carolina is a relative newcomer to the playoffs, They had a strong opening round game, but now the competition gets stiffer. Montana is experienced in these situations, having won the FCS title a few times. I like the Grizzlies talent, and I think their experience will give them an edge. MONTANA by nine
Fordham Rams at #7 Towson Tigers: Both of these teams have been in these playoffs before. Fordham has a slightly better record in the playoffs, as well as having a better 12-1 record against the ranked Tigers. While Sacred Heart gave Fordham some problems in the first round, I like the Rams' chances to advance here. FORDHAM by six
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at #6 McNeese State Cowboys: These Gamecocks don't play quite as well as the those in South Carolina, but they do have a similar 10-3 record. Despite that, McNeese is an old hand at these playoffs, often beating teams with better records. I like their chances, despite the overwhelming first round victory that brought the Gamecocks here. MCNEESE STATE by 12
New Hampshire Wildcats at #5 Maine Black Bears: These two teams face off frequently; in fact, they just faced each other two weeks ago. Then, the Wildcats beat Maine. However, that was a home game for the Wildcats, and now the Black Bears want revenge. I like Maine in the rematch. MAINE by eight
Sam Houston State Bearkats at #4 Southeastern Louisiana Lions: Louisiana teams have been doing well in important games this season. Sam Houston has the experience, and they might win, but I'm drawn to the magic that has been building in the Bayou State. SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA by six
South Dakota State Jackrabbits at #3 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Jackrabbits would love a chance to face North Dakota State, but first they need to get past the Eagles. They might, as Eastern Washington has a history of faltering in these playoffs, but I'll give the slight edge to the home team. Watch out for the upset, though! EASTERN WASHINGTON by three
Tennessee State Tigers at #2 Eastern Illinois Panthers: Tennessee State had an impressive blowout shutout of Butler in the first round to get here, but I have to favor the strong 11-1 Panthers. EASTERN ILLINOIS by 16
Furman Paladins at North Dakota State Bison: The Bison are unbeaten, thanks to their opening week upset of Kansas State. I'll be favoring them throughout the playoffs. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by 20
Conference Championships
MAC - #23 Bowling Green Falcons v #11 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies want the win to gain a spot in a BCS bowl. Bowling Green won't make that desire easy, as they are a strong team. However, I don't think their defense can slow down all-purpose QB Jordan Lynch. Lynch is actually my favorite for the Heisman, followed by Teddy Bridgewater. If Lynch has another colossal performance, there may be many more people who agree with me. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 13
SEC - #4 Missouri Tigers v #9 Auburn Tigers: I'm sure everyone will be favoring Auburn after their win over Alabama, but I'm going the other way. Gux Malzahn mistakenly gave Missouri all the incentive they need for their defense to spank the Tigers - by overlooking them! Gux Malzahn, in his post-game interview, stated that it was be a "crime against the nation" if Auburn was not granted a spot in the National Championship Game after beating Alabama. Uh, excuse me, Coach Malzahn, but you still have another game to play. Ignore Missouri at your own peril! The Tigers are motivated to knock off Auburn, and that will definitely open the door to the National Championship to Ohio State. MISSOURI by three
PAC-12 - #6 Stanford Cardinal v Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils have a strong offense, but strong offenses don't bother the Stanford defense. After all, they not only slowed by STOPPED the Ducks high-powered offense. I see a similar result brewing here. STANFORD by ten
MOUNTAIN WEST - #20 Fresno State Bulldogs v Utah State Aggies: The Bulldogs are not playing for an unbeaten season and BCS bowl, but I don't think they'll be so disappointed to lose this game. They just have too many tools, more than the Aggies can stop. FRESNO STATE by 16
ACC - #24 Duke Blue Devils v #1 Florida State Seminoles: Duke has had a historic season, but midnight is chiming. The Seminoles are just too strong, and the Tallahassee police are delaying any action against Jameis Winston until after this game and the Heisman results are announced. I'm not sure they can delay it all the way until the National Championship Game, but Florida State will at least gain a spot to that game. FLORIDA STATE by 23
BIG TEN - #2 Ohio State Buckeyes v #10 Michigan State Spartans: The SEC Championship Game will be over by the time this game starts, so Ohio State will know just how impressive they need to be. Their defense struggled against Michigan, but that was a strong offense. Strong offenses have played well against Ohio State this season (Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan), but the Buckeyes dominate against lesser offenses. The Spartans defense, though, is stronger than anything Ohio State has seen. Can they get past that? I think so, but the winning margin may be smaller than the Buckeyes would like. Fortunately, a Missouri win in the SEC Championship will eliminate the need for a large margin of victory. OHIO STATE by six
NCAA Top 25 - Week 14
Rivalry Week caused quite a stir in the Top 25! Two unbeatens fell (Alabama and Fresno State), two Top Ten teams barely won (Baylor and Ohio State), and two others fell (Clemson and Wisconsin). With conference championships this week, there will definitely be some disturbances next week.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another dominant victory for the 'Noles put them firmly in the National Championship picture
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [3] : They needed a missed two-point conversion to salvage a win against fierce rival Michigan, but that was a better result than many teams faced in Rivalry Week. The Buckeyes need a strong win in the Big Ten Championship to seal a spot in the National Championship Game.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [1] : For the first time all season, the Tide seemed confused. Gus Malzahn figured out a way to beat "The Process", and without that, Alabama can't function.
4. Missouri Tigers (11-1) [5] : The Tigers confounded Johnny Manziel to win a spot in the SEC Championship Game
5. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) [4]
6. Stanford Cardinal (10-2) [6] : Dominant win over rival Notre Dame sends them into the Pac-12 Championship with a win.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [7]
8. Baylor Bears (10-1) [8] : They squeaked out a win over struggling TCU, which does not bode well to face powerful Texas this week.
9. Auburn Tigers (11-1) [12] : The Tigers have been getting steadily better as the season progresses, which gave them a win over Alabama. Can they stretch that to an SEC title and possible National Championship Game berth?
10. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) [11] : The Spartans finish the Big Ten season unbeaten in the conference, the first time they've done that since 1966. Their defense gets to face the Buckeyes for a shot at the Rose Bowl and a chance to knock Ohio State off its National Championship pedestal.
11. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0) [16] : The Huskies posted a strong win to close out the regular season unbeaten. When they win the MAC Championship, they'll have sealed a bid to a BCS bowl.
12. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [13] : Man, did they struggle against rival Oregon State!
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) [15] : The Sun Devils, on the other hand, rolled over Arizona to give themselves momentum into the Pac-12 Championship
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [19] : They missed the SEC Championship but they gave a beatdown to Clemson
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) [14] : They eked by conference winless Arkansas on Friday
16. UCF Golden Knights (10-1) [17] : The Knights continue their unbeaten conference streak, which they need to do one more time to win the inaugural American Athletic title
17. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [9] : The Tigers were demolished by South Carolina
18. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [10] : Although the Badgers fought bad enough in the fourth quarter to prevent embarrassment, the Nittany Lions spanked the Badgers and knocked them out of a BCS bowl
19. UCLA Bruins (9-3) [21] : Dominant performance over rival USC
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-1) [20] : They fell from the ranks of the unbeaten but remain in the Top 25, due to collapses by other teams
21. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [22]
22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) [18] : The Aggies looked pathetic for the second week in a row, although their defense was good, at least in the first half
23. Bowling Green Falcons (9-3) [26] : Powerful victory over Buffalo vaulted them into the MAC Championship
24. Duke Blue Devils (10-2) [25] : The Blue Devils get their FIRST EVER ten-win season. Unfortunately their prize is a battle against overwhelming Florida State in the ACC Championship
25. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) [NR] : The Cardinals missed the MAC Championship but finished with ten wins, solidifying a solid season
Dropped off: East Carolina Pirates [#22], USC Trojans [#24]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2), Washington Huskies (8-4), Utah State Aggies (8-4), Texas Longhorns (8-3), Boise State Broncos (8-4), Houston Cougars (8-4)
All division titles were awarded, as the conference championships are this week. However, there are three conferences still battling for a title:
American Athletic: If UCF wins or Cincinnati loses, the Knights win the conference (they hold the tiebreaker over Louisville)
Big XII: If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then they win the conference. If the Sooners win, the winner of the Baylor - Texas bout wins the conference.
Sun Belt: LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE has won the title, regardless of the outcome of their battle against South Alabama, because they hold a game lead AND the tiebreaker over Arkansas State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another dominant victory for the 'Noles put them firmly in the National Championship picture
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [3] : They needed a missed two-point conversion to salvage a win against fierce rival Michigan, but that was a better result than many teams faced in Rivalry Week. The Buckeyes need a strong win in the Big Ten Championship to seal a spot in the National Championship Game.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) [1] : For the first time all season, the Tide seemed confused. Gus Malzahn figured out a way to beat "The Process", and without that, Alabama can't function.
4. Missouri Tigers (11-1) [5] : The Tigers confounded Johnny Manziel to win a spot in the SEC Championship Game
5. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) [4]
6. Stanford Cardinal (10-2) [6] : Dominant win over rival Notre Dame sends them into the Pac-12 Championship with a win.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [7]
8. Baylor Bears (10-1) [8] : They squeaked out a win over struggling TCU, which does not bode well to face powerful Texas this week.
9. Auburn Tigers (11-1) [12] : The Tigers have been getting steadily better as the season progresses, which gave them a win over Alabama. Can they stretch that to an SEC title and possible National Championship Game berth?
10. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) [11] : The Spartans finish the Big Ten season unbeaten in the conference, the first time they've done that since 1966. Their defense gets to face the Buckeyes for a shot at the Rose Bowl and a chance to knock Ohio State off its National Championship pedestal.
11. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0) [16] : The Huskies posted a strong win to close out the regular season unbeaten. When they win the MAC Championship, they'll have sealed a bid to a BCS bowl.
12. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [13] : Man, did they struggle against rival Oregon State!
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) [15] : The Sun Devils, on the other hand, rolled over Arizona to give themselves momentum into the Pac-12 Championship
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [19] : They missed the SEC Championship but they gave a beatdown to Clemson
15. LSU Tigers (9-3) [14] : They eked by conference winless Arkansas on Friday
16. UCF Golden Knights (10-1) [17] : The Knights continue their unbeaten conference streak, which they need to do one more time to win the inaugural American Athletic title
17. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [9] : The Tigers were demolished by South Carolina
18. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [10] : Although the Badgers fought bad enough in the fourth quarter to prevent embarrassment, the Nittany Lions spanked the Badgers and knocked them out of a BCS bowl
19. UCLA Bruins (9-3) [21] : Dominant performance over rival USC
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-1) [20] : They fell from the ranks of the unbeaten but remain in the Top 25, due to collapses by other teams
21. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [22]
22. Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) [18] : The Aggies looked pathetic for the second week in a row, although their defense was good, at least in the first half
23. Bowling Green Falcons (9-3) [26] : Powerful victory over Buffalo vaulted them into the MAC Championship
24. Duke Blue Devils (10-2) [25] : The Blue Devils get their FIRST EVER ten-win season. Unfortunately their prize is a battle against overwhelming Florida State in the ACC Championship
25. Ball State Cardinals (10-2) [NR] : The Cardinals missed the MAC Championship but finished with ten wins, solidifying a solid season
Dropped off: East Carolina Pirates [#22], USC Trojans [#24]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2), Washington Huskies (8-4), Utah State Aggies (8-4), Texas Longhorns (8-3), Boise State Broncos (8-4), Houston Cougars (8-4)
All division titles were awarded, as the conference championships are this week. However, there are three conferences still battling for a title:
American Athletic: If UCF wins or Cincinnati loses, the Knights win the conference (they hold the tiebreaker over Louisville)
Big XII: If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then they win the conference. If the Sooners win, the winner of the Baylor - Texas bout wins the conference.
Sun Belt: LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE has won the title, regardless of the outcome of their battle against South Alabama, because they hold a game lead AND the tiebreaker over Arkansas State.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 13 Power Rankings and picks
The entire NFC North failed to win a game this week, but the division still has fewer teams with losing records than any division in the AFC. Right now, it's beginning to look like the sixth seed in the AFC will have a 7-9 record. I'll start analyzing the division races and playoff seeds starting next week, so we'll see how that develops in the coming weeks.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [1] : Not hurt by a bye at all
2. New Orleans Saints (9-2) [3] : Not an impressive win over struggling Atlanta, but it was a win. The AFC's top teams couldn't win this week.
3. Denver Broncos (9-2) [2] : Who gives up a 24-point halftime lead? With the worst showing by Peyton Manning in years (only 150 yards passing), the knocks against him and cold weather success are happening again. Remember, this year's Super Bowl is in cold and windy New Jersey.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-3) [5] : On a seven-game winning streak, this is the hottest team in the league right now.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) [4] : San Diego knocked them off to cause a two-game losing streak, and they face Denver again this week. Fortunes are turning for the Chiefs.
6. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) [6] : Their defense showed life as the 49ers are getting their act together again
7. New England Patriots (8-3) [8] : Tom Brady engineered a tremendous comeback. I'll admit, as a East coast resident who had a long Monday ahead of him, I went to sleep thinking the Broncos had that game sewn up. Never underestimate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [7]
9. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [11] : The Cards are getting it together. With Carson Palmer providing consistency and ability at quarterback, and the defense starting to stiffen up, this team could challenge San Francisco for the sixth seed.
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Arizona burned them to show that consistency is still lacking in Indy.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : The NFC West's lead expands, as they now have three Top Ten teams and the Rams are nearly 50%. Unquestionably the best team in the league.
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego was the only winner, but the others didn't lose too badly. Still, this division has been falling recently. They still hold a sizable lead over the third place division.
3. NFC South [3] : Two teams in the Top Five and Tampa Bay is on a three-game winning streak. If it weren't for Atlanta, this would be a hot division.
4. AFC North [5] : Their best team had a bye and they still lept over their counterpart division in the NFC. Pitt and Baltimore both had strong showings, but they face each other this week, so I'm not sure if this lead can hold.
5. NFC North [4] : As I stated earlier, nobody won this week, and Chicago's defense stunk. They play each other this week, so that may balance them out.
6. AFC East [6] : The Patriots pulled off the aforementioned second half comeback, but the Jets looked sickly and Miami's defense couldn't hold back Carolina. They can't coast on New England all season.
7. NFC East [7] : Still showing improvement, they are creeping up to their AFC counterparts.
8. AFC South [8] : While Jacksonville is no longer the worst team in the league, this division still has the worst team - the Texans (although Atlanta is battling for that distinction). With Indy and Tennessee struggling with consistency and the other half of the division scraping the bottom of the league's barrel, this division seems destined to sit at the bottom the rest of the season.
Seattle could clinch the NFC West title this week. I don't think they will, but it could happen. Let's look at the games to see how:
Thanksgiving Day games
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: It was only a few years ago that fans were clamoring to take away the traditional Detroit Thanksgiving Day game, because the team was so bad. Now the Lions lead the NFC North (after last week, not exactly a compliment) and are favored against a Rodgers-less Packers. Former backup Matt Flynn came in to salvage the Packers last week, but the Lions defense is better than the porous one in Minnesota. LIONS, 27-23
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys tend to play well on Thanksgiving; in fact, in some years, it has been the final decent game of the regular season, as the Cowboys have frequently had terrible December skids. We're not sure if Terrelle Pryor will play, and I'm not sure his presence would help them win anyway. COWBOYS, 27-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Thursday night has an interesting game. The Steelers are looking good right now, while the Ravens can't decide if they want to play like the defending Super Bowl Champs or chumps. Pitt has the better division record, but I think the Ravens will pull off one more defensive battle in front of a national audience. RAVENS, 23-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have found their spark again, but we've seen how quickly that can be extinguished. Chip Kelly's offense only works if they can maintain an early lead. While the Eagles may strike first, the Cards will bounce back. If the Cards can take a lead into the halftime locker room, I think they'll win. This game will be close regardless, but I like what Carson Palmer has been doing. CARDS, 24-23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: The Bears running defense was just atrocious last week. Adrian Peterson has had some of his best games against the Bears, and I think he'll gain nearly 200 yards. However, that won't be enough to win the game. The Vikings passing attack is a joke, I think Ponder (or whoever plays) will have at least two interceptions. Josh McCown has this offense humming, and the Bears will win the battle of field position thanks to at least three Vikings turnovers. BEARS, 30-26
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: The Jags have won two of their last three games and Chad Henne is looking pretty good. The Browns need a strong win to erase the debacle against Pittsburgh, and this defense has the ability to give the Jags fits. BROWNS, 23-17
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: The Jets offense is terrible, and their defense is not working well enough to get them out of their jam. Ryan Tannehill is leading the Dolphins well, and I think he will outmaneuver the struggling Jets defense. DOLPHINS, 24-16
New England Patriots at Houston Texans: The Texans are just looking pathetic. They couldn't score a touchdown against Jacksonville, for heaven's sake! The Pats won't need a miraculous comeback here. PATS, 27-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is rolling! With the Saints facing Seattle this week, the Panthers see a chance to tie them atop the NFC South. The Bucs have a winning streak right now themselves, but the Panthers defense, combined with the leadership of Cam Newton, will pull the Panthers ahead. PANTHERS, 24-16
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts looked terrible against the Cardinals, but that might have been fortuitous. The Colts have not had two consecutive poor outings from Andrew Luck, so the Colts should bounce back this week and get past the Titans, although it will be close. After all, most of the Titans games have been close this season. COLTS, 26-23
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: The worst team in the NFC goes up against a struggling AFC team. Given the NFC's dominance this season, I'm almost inclined to pick Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking just dreadful. Also, the Bills had a bye week, so they had an extra week to prepare and heal up some guys. BILLS, 26-23
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Speaking of bye weeks, Cincy had one, too. Excellently timed, as they got to see how San Diego's offense rolled over the Chiefs defense. They can plan some extra strategy and find a way to stay ahead of San Diego. BENGALS, 27-23
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs exchanged the lead with San Diego last week. Denver blew a huge first half lead. Since this game will not be in the bitter confines of Foxboro, I think the Broncos offense will roll over a Chiefs defense that is suddenly showing cracks. BRONCOS, 30-24
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Believe it or not, the Rams have a 3-0-1 record against the 49ers in their last four bouts. That's even better than Seattle's record in their last four encounters with San Fran! Could the Rams extend it to 4-0-1? I think they might, but I'll go with a revitalized 49ers team. Still, this one could easily go the other way. Personally, I think this would have been the better choice for the Sunday night game. 49ERS, 24-20
Sunday night
New York Giants at Washington Redskins: I've been listening to the NYC and local sports shows already dismiss the Giants. Since Jason Pierre-Paul stated that they had to beat the Cowboys, and they didn't, everyone seems ready to dismiss the Giants. While I am no Giants fan, I think that is premature. I think an 8-8 record might be sufficient to win this division. Dallas and Philly look good now, but we've already seen how Chip Kelly's offense can suddenly falter in the NFL, and I anticipate another December slide for the Cowboys. The Giants still have a chance, but they must win this game. The Redskins are struggling, and conflicts among the players and outbursts by RGIII are distracting them enough to open the door for the Giants. GIANTS, 26-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: The Saints are unbeaten on the road and the Seahawks are unbeaten at home. Something has to give. These two will battle back and forth, much like San Diego and the Chiefs did last week, but I think the edge will be the Seahawks defense. SEAHAWKS, 26-24
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [1] : Not hurt by a bye at all
2. New Orleans Saints (9-2) [3] : Not an impressive win over struggling Atlanta, but it was a win. The AFC's top teams couldn't win this week.
3. Denver Broncos (9-2) [2] : Who gives up a 24-point halftime lead? With the worst showing by Peyton Manning in years (only 150 yards passing), the knocks against him and cold weather success are happening again. Remember, this year's Super Bowl is in cold and windy New Jersey.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-3) [5] : On a seven-game winning streak, this is the hottest team in the league right now.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) [4] : San Diego knocked them off to cause a two-game losing streak, and they face Denver again this week. Fortunes are turning for the Chiefs.
6. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) [6] : Their defense showed life as the 49ers are getting their act together again
7. New England Patriots (8-3) [8] : Tom Brady engineered a tremendous comeback. I'll admit, as a East coast resident who had a long Monday ahead of him, I went to sleep thinking the Broncos had that game sewn up. Never underestimate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [7]
9. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [11] : The Cards are getting it together. With Carson Palmer providing consistency and ability at quarterback, and the defense starting to stiffen up, this team could challenge San Francisco for the sixth seed.
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Arizona burned them to show that consistency is still lacking in Indy.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : The NFC West's lead expands, as they now have three Top Ten teams and the Rams are nearly 50%. Unquestionably the best team in the league.
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego was the only winner, but the others didn't lose too badly. Still, this division has been falling recently. They still hold a sizable lead over the third place division.
3. NFC South [3] : Two teams in the Top Five and Tampa Bay is on a three-game winning streak. If it weren't for Atlanta, this would be a hot division.
4. AFC North [5] : Their best team had a bye and they still lept over their counterpart division in the NFC. Pitt and Baltimore both had strong showings, but they face each other this week, so I'm not sure if this lead can hold.
5. NFC North [4] : As I stated earlier, nobody won this week, and Chicago's defense stunk. They play each other this week, so that may balance them out.
6. AFC East [6] : The Patriots pulled off the aforementioned second half comeback, but the Jets looked sickly and Miami's defense couldn't hold back Carolina. They can't coast on New England all season.
7. NFC East [7] : Still showing improvement, they are creeping up to their AFC counterparts.
8. AFC South [8] : While Jacksonville is no longer the worst team in the league, this division still has the worst team - the Texans (although Atlanta is battling for that distinction). With Indy and Tennessee struggling with consistency and the other half of the division scraping the bottom of the league's barrel, this division seems destined to sit at the bottom the rest of the season.
Seattle could clinch the NFC West title this week. I don't think they will, but it could happen. Let's look at the games to see how:
Thanksgiving Day games
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: It was only a few years ago that fans were clamoring to take away the traditional Detroit Thanksgiving Day game, because the team was so bad. Now the Lions lead the NFC North (after last week, not exactly a compliment) and are favored against a Rodgers-less Packers. Former backup Matt Flynn came in to salvage the Packers last week, but the Lions defense is better than the porous one in Minnesota. LIONS, 27-23
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys tend to play well on Thanksgiving; in fact, in some years, it has been the final decent game of the regular season, as the Cowboys have frequently had terrible December skids. We're not sure if Terrelle Pryor will play, and I'm not sure his presence would help them win anyway. COWBOYS, 27-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Thursday night has an interesting game. The Steelers are looking good right now, while the Ravens can't decide if they want to play like the defending Super Bowl Champs or chumps. Pitt has the better division record, but I think the Ravens will pull off one more defensive battle in front of a national audience. RAVENS, 23-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have found their spark again, but we've seen how quickly that can be extinguished. Chip Kelly's offense only works if they can maintain an early lead. While the Eagles may strike first, the Cards will bounce back. If the Cards can take a lead into the halftime locker room, I think they'll win. This game will be close regardless, but I like what Carson Palmer has been doing. CARDS, 24-23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: The Bears running defense was just atrocious last week. Adrian Peterson has had some of his best games against the Bears, and I think he'll gain nearly 200 yards. However, that won't be enough to win the game. The Vikings passing attack is a joke, I think Ponder (or whoever plays) will have at least two interceptions. Josh McCown has this offense humming, and the Bears will win the battle of field position thanks to at least three Vikings turnovers. BEARS, 30-26
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: The Jags have won two of their last three games and Chad Henne is looking pretty good. The Browns need a strong win to erase the debacle against Pittsburgh, and this defense has the ability to give the Jags fits. BROWNS, 23-17
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: The Jets offense is terrible, and their defense is not working well enough to get them out of their jam. Ryan Tannehill is leading the Dolphins well, and I think he will outmaneuver the struggling Jets defense. DOLPHINS, 24-16
New England Patriots at Houston Texans: The Texans are just looking pathetic. They couldn't score a touchdown against Jacksonville, for heaven's sake! The Pats won't need a miraculous comeback here. PATS, 27-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is rolling! With the Saints facing Seattle this week, the Panthers see a chance to tie them atop the NFC South. The Bucs have a winning streak right now themselves, but the Panthers defense, combined with the leadership of Cam Newton, will pull the Panthers ahead. PANTHERS, 24-16
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts looked terrible against the Cardinals, but that might have been fortuitous. The Colts have not had two consecutive poor outings from Andrew Luck, so the Colts should bounce back this week and get past the Titans, although it will be close. After all, most of the Titans games have been close this season. COLTS, 26-23
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: The worst team in the NFC goes up against a struggling AFC team. Given the NFC's dominance this season, I'm almost inclined to pick Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking just dreadful. Also, the Bills had a bye week, so they had an extra week to prepare and heal up some guys. BILLS, 26-23
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Speaking of bye weeks, Cincy had one, too. Excellently timed, as they got to see how San Diego's offense rolled over the Chiefs defense. They can plan some extra strategy and find a way to stay ahead of San Diego. BENGALS, 27-23
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs exchanged the lead with San Diego last week. Denver blew a huge first half lead. Since this game will not be in the bitter confines of Foxboro, I think the Broncos offense will roll over a Chiefs defense that is suddenly showing cracks. BRONCOS, 30-24
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Believe it or not, the Rams have a 3-0-1 record against the 49ers in their last four bouts. That's even better than Seattle's record in their last four encounters with San Fran! Could the Rams extend it to 4-0-1? I think they might, but I'll go with a revitalized 49ers team. Still, this one could easily go the other way. Personally, I think this would have been the better choice for the Sunday night game. 49ERS, 24-20
Sunday night
New York Giants at Washington Redskins: I've been listening to the NYC and local sports shows already dismiss the Giants. Since Jason Pierre-Paul stated that they had to beat the Cowboys, and they didn't, everyone seems ready to dismiss the Giants. While I am no Giants fan, I think that is premature. I think an 8-8 record might be sufficient to win this division. Dallas and Philly look good now, but we've already seen how Chip Kelly's offense can suddenly falter in the NFL, and I anticipate another December slide for the Cowboys. The Giants still have a chance, but they must win this game. The Redskins are struggling, and conflicts among the players and outbursts by RGIII are distracting them enough to open the door for the Giants. GIANTS, 26-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: The Saints are unbeaten on the road and the Seahawks are unbeaten at home. Something has to give. These two will battle back and forth, much like San Diego and the Chiefs did last week, but I think the edge will be the Seahawks defense. SEAHAWKS, 26-24
Sunday, November 24, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 14 piks
I got conservative in my picks last week, and shouldn't have. Upsets and surprises were plentiful. Georgia Southern garnered one of the key upsets of the day, knocking Florida out of bowl contention and becoming the first FCS school ever to defeat the Gators. Hawaii turned out their best offensive performance of the season, and it was on the road, as they forced Wyoming into overtime. Hawaii was trying to win their first game of the season, as was Georgia State, who pushed Arkansas State and nearly beat them. The Iowa State Cyclones DID win their first conference game, shutting out Kansas 34-0. Washington easily blew past Oregon State in a game residents on the East Coast probably did not watch.
The Top 25 wasn't immune to upsets and surprises. Oregon, whose players had stated boredom and apathy about playing in the Rose Bowl, now don't have to worry about that, as Arizona dominated them in a 42-16 upset that likely destroyed Marcus Mariota's Heisman hopes. Johnny Manziel's chances to repeat as Heisman winner is also in danger, thanks to LSU's defensive dominance. Manziel had his worst statistical performance of his collegiate career, and didn't even complete 45% of his passes. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten HARD, losing National title hopes in an overwhelming 49-17 loss.
Tues Nov 26
Western Michigan Broncos at #16 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies have already won their division, but I don't see them resting too many players, as they want that unbeaten season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 27
Thurs Nov 28
The NFL may still rule Thanksgiving Day, but we have a couple of college games to enjoy.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Rebels want to bounce back from a frustrating loss to Missouri. These in-state rivalries can always be tough to pick, as records go out the window, but I'll give the Rebels their due. OLE MISS by ten
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Whoa, this game should be a doozy! Texas is stronger than most of the national analysts believe, and can play both sides of the ball well. Tech has a good offense (although recent injuries have weakened it a bit), but their defense stinks. That's why I pick Texas. TEXAS by 12
Fri Nov 29
Some great games are on tap for the day after Thanksgiving. Don't get too excited, or your leftover turkey won't digest properly!
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: While both teams are simply playing for bowl position, Nebraska players know that every victory helps secure their coach's job. That sounds like incentive enough to win this game, although Iowa's defense won't make that easy. NEBRASKA by eight
#22 East Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Conference USA East division title is on the line as these two teams square off. While East Carolina started slowly, they have steadily improved. Marshall is a powerhouse this season, though. While this game could go either way, I'll give a slight edge to the improved defense of the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA by six
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals: Two red bird mascots square off, but that's about all they have in common. Miami Ohio is looking for their first win of the season, while the Cardinals are one of the most dominant teams in the MAC. Looks like the Redhawks will go winless. BALL STATE by 34
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls: This game should be a dandy! The MAC East title is on the line here, so both teams will play hard. Bowling Green is more used to these situations. While my sentiments run towards Buffalo, I have to give the Falcons an edge. BOWLING GREEN by nine
Arkansas Razorbacks at #14 LSU Tigers: I don't foresee a letdown after their pulverizing of Texas A&M. Zavh Mettenberger knows he has Heisman chances, and he wants one final chance to impress the voters. LSU by 24
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans: Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State has already won their division. Also like Northern Illinois, a perfect season still hangs in the balance, so their biggest stars will still play. FRESNO STATE by 16
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies: After crushing Oregon State on the road, the Huskies return home to face their in-state rival. The incentive to win this game is too great; they won't disappoint. WASHINGTON by 20
Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks: Both teams need a win to remove the sting of terrible losses last week. Oregon may not have wanted the Rose Bowl, but they know one more loss removes them from playing a big money bowl game. They'll get their act together for this game, but expect the Beavers to keep it close. OREGON by 13
South Florida Bulls at #17 UCF Golden Knights: UCF knows what they need to do to win the first American Athletic Conference title -- win out. They'll get this win, needing just one more next week. UCF by 23
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #12 Auburn Tigers: For the first time in the history of the rivalry, the SEC West title is at stake. I find that amazing. The Iron Bowl is always a fierce battle. Both teams are well rested and ready to rumble. Auburn has engineered the best single season turnaround in school history, and want to make it the best in SEC history, but Alabama stands in the way. Both teams are strong offenses, but Alabama's defense gives them the edge. ALABAMA by 13
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators: The Gators have already lost a bowl bid, shattering the longest current bowl streak. The Seminoles are out to rack up the best seasonal offensive showing in school history. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines: No doubt about it, it's tough to play in the Big House. Michigan may have lost some punch this season, but this game and its intense rivalry will still be exciting. It sometimes takes Ohio State a big of time to get their rhythm, so Michigan might take an early lead, but the Buckeyes will end up winning the game and keeping their perfect season intact. OHIO STATE by 16
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at #5 Missouri Tigers: The Tigers need this victory to win the SEC East, but Johnny Manziel and company want to finish strongly and assure themselves a good bowl. This game will be tough. LSU showed how to beat the Aggies, but can we count on another poor showing by Manziel and the offense? I think the Aggies will score more than 10 points, but I don't think they'll get their usual 40+ points. Missouri can score, too, and I think they will score a late touchdown to win the game. MISSOURI by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal won't slack off just because they have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship -- this is Notre Dame, after all! The Irish are guaranteed a bowl spot, but the Cardinal will ensure it's not a prestigious one. STANFORD by 12
#8 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs: Their National Championship hopes are dashed, and a Big XII title is in doubt, but Baylor still wants to win to gain a strong bowl. BAYLOR by 24
#9 Clemson Tigers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: Clemson and South Carolina both got nice and easy FCS opponents to warm up for this game. Tahj Boyd will be playing, but I don't think he'll be 100%. That might give the Gamecocks' defense an edge. That same defense has disappointed me earlier in this season, so I'll pick Clemson, but don't be surprised by a Gamecocks upset. CLEMSON by three
Penn State Nittany Lions at #10 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have no chance at the Rose Bowl (and, unlike Oregon, are disappointed by that), but they know a win lands them a strong bowl, likely a New Years Day one. WISCONSIN by 16
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Well, this game didn't turn out like Minnesota hoped. They wanted to win last week and be playing for the Legends division title. That won't happen. Minnesota might still want to be spoilers, but I don't think they can get past Michigan State's defense. After all, they couldn't get past Wisconsin's defense, and the Spartans are better. MICHIGAN STATE by 13
Arizona Wildcats at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another intense in-state rivalry that will put everyone on the field, despite already clinching a division title. The Sun Devils obviously don't want to risk injuring anyone before facing Stanford, but you won't be able to keep the kids off the field for this game. The Widlcats won't be pushovers, either, so they might need the starts. ARIZONA STATE by 18
#25 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels: I would certainly love Duke to win their first ACC division title ever, and play for their first ACC title in over seventy years. North Carolina won't make it easy, though. The Tar Heels have reversed a disasterous 1-5 start with five consecutive wins, four against ACC teams. Of course, except for Georgia Tech, they were the among the weakest teams in the conference, so we're not sure what to make of it. I'll pick Duke, but the Tar Heels could play spoiler and make the Coastal title picture murky. DUKE by six
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense will roll over the Boilermakers, meaning Purdue would fail to beat a single FBS opponent this season. INDIANA by 17
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini broke their Big Ten jinx with a close win at Purdue. I would feel more comfortable if the offense had done better, but now they get rival Northwestern at home to close the season. Northwestern, after the reaching the Top 25 will tremendous non-conference victories, collapsed in conference play. They never seemed to recover from their conference opener against Ohio State. Northwestern is the better team, but my heart wants Illinois to win, so I'm picking the upset. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest
Friday had most of these, but here's one with major implications:
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies win the Mountain West Mountain division with a win here, regardless of how Boise plays that evening. Wyoming may be exhausted after the offensive showcase exhibited with Hawaii this past weekend, so I like the Aggies chances to win outright. UTAH STATE by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: #21 UCLA Bruins at #24 USC Trojans: There are plenty of rivalry games this weekend. Why did I pick this one for the Game of the Week? First of all, this one matches the intensity of the Iron Bowl and Ohio State v Michigan. There is usually at least one brawl during this game. Also, these two teams are more closely matched than the other rivalries. Truthfully this game could go either way. UCLA has the better offense, and a desire to correct for this past weekend's debacle. The Trojans have a chance to make a stand for their interim coach, Ed Orgeron, whose name is finally in the pool of candidates for the full-time coaching position. A victory over their bitter crosstown rivals will certainly go a long way towards sealing that deal. I think this game could come down to ball control, which USC has been doing better recently. USC by three
The Top 25 wasn't immune to upsets and surprises. Oregon, whose players had stated boredom and apathy about playing in the Rose Bowl, now don't have to worry about that, as Arizona dominated them in a 42-16 upset that likely destroyed Marcus Mariota's Heisman hopes. Johnny Manziel's chances to repeat as Heisman winner is also in danger, thanks to LSU's defensive dominance. Manziel had his worst statistical performance of his collegiate career, and didn't even complete 45% of his passes. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten HARD, losing National title hopes in an overwhelming 49-17 loss.
Tues Nov 26
Western Michigan Broncos at #16 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies have already won their division, but I don't see them resting too many players, as they want that unbeaten season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 27
Thurs Nov 28
The NFL may still rule Thanksgiving Day, but we have a couple of college games to enjoy.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Rebels want to bounce back from a frustrating loss to Missouri. These in-state rivalries can always be tough to pick, as records go out the window, but I'll give the Rebels their due. OLE MISS by ten
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Whoa, this game should be a doozy! Texas is stronger than most of the national analysts believe, and can play both sides of the ball well. Tech has a good offense (although recent injuries have weakened it a bit), but their defense stinks. That's why I pick Texas. TEXAS by 12
Fri Nov 29
Some great games are on tap for the day after Thanksgiving. Don't get too excited, or your leftover turkey won't digest properly!
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: While both teams are simply playing for bowl position, Nebraska players know that every victory helps secure their coach's job. That sounds like incentive enough to win this game, although Iowa's defense won't make that easy. NEBRASKA by eight
#22 East Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Conference USA East division title is on the line as these two teams square off. While East Carolina started slowly, they have steadily improved. Marshall is a powerhouse this season, though. While this game could go either way, I'll give a slight edge to the improved defense of the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA by six
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals: Two red bird mascots square off, but that's about all they have in common. Miami Ohio is looking for their first win of the season, while the Cardinals are one of the most dominant teams in the MAC. Looks like the Redhawks will go winless. BALL STATE by 34
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls: This game should be a dandy! The MAC East title is on the line here, so both teams will play hard. Bowling Green is more used to these situations. While my sentiments run towards Buffalo, I have to give the Falcons an edge. BOWLING GREEN by nine
Arkansas Razorbacks at #14 LSU Tigers: I don't foresee a letdown after their pulverizing of Texas A&M. Zavh Mettenberger knows he has Heisman chances, and he wants one final chance to impress the voters. LSU by 24
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans: Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State has already won their division. Also like Northern Illinois, a perfect season still hangs in the balance, so their biggest stars will still play. FRESNO STATE by 16
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies: After crushing Oregon State on the road, the Huskies return home to face their in-state rival. The incentive to win this game is too great; they won't disappoint. WASHINGTON by 20
Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks: Both teams need a win to remove the sting of terrible losses last week. Oregon may not have wanted the Rose Bowl, but they know one more loss removes them from playing a big money bowl game. They'll get their act together for this game, but expect the Beavers to keep it close. OREGON by 13
South Florida Bulls at #17 UCF Golden Knights: UCF knows what they need to do to win the first American Athletic Conference title -- win out. They'll get this win, needing just one more next week. UCF by 23
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #12 Auburn Tigers: For the first time in the history of the rivalry, the SEC West title is at stake. I find that amazing. The Iron Bowl is always a fierce battle. Both teams are well rested and ready to rumble. Auburn has engineered the best single season turnaround in school history, and want to make it the best in SEC history, but Alabama stands in the way. Both teams are strong offenses, but Alabama's defense gives them the edge. ALABAMA by 13
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators: The Gators have already lost a bowl bid, shattering the longest current bowl streak. The Seminoles are out to rack up the best seasonal offensive showing in school history. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines: No doubt about it, it's tough to play in the Big House. Michigan may have lost some punch this season, but this game and its intense rivalry will still be exciting. It sometimes takes Ohio State a big of time to get their rhythm, so Michigan might take an early lead, but the Buckeyes will end up winning the game and keeping their perfect season intact. OHIO STATE by 16
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at #5 Missouri Tigers: The Tigers need this victory to win the SEC East, but Johnny Manziel and company want to finish strongly and assure themselves a good bowl. This game will be tough. LSU showed how to beat the Aggies, but can we count on another poor showing by Manziel and the offense? I think the Aggies will score more than 10 points, but I don't think they'll get their usual 40+ points. Missouri can score, too, and I think they will score a late touchdown to win the game. MISSOURI by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal won't slack off just because they have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship -- this is Notre Dame, after all! The Irish are guaranteed a bowl spot, but the Cardinal will ensure it's not a prestigious one. STANFORD by 12
#8 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs: Their National Championship hopes are dashed, and a Big XII title is in doubt, but Baylor still wants to win to gain a strong bowl. BAYLOR by 24
#9 Clemson Tigers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: Clemson and South Carolina both got nice and easy FCS opponents to warm up for this game. Tahj Boyd will be playing, but I don't think he'll be 100%. That might give the Gamecocks' defense an edge. That same defense has disappointed me earlier in this season, so I'll pick Clemson, but don't be surprised by a Gamecocks upset. CLEMSON by three
Penn State Nittany Lions at #10 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have no chance at the Rose Bowl (and, unlike Oregon, are disappointed by that), but they know a win lands them a strong bowl, likely a New Years Day one. WISCONSIN by 16
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Well, this game didn't turn out like Minnesota hoped. They wanted to win last week and be playing for the Legends division title. That won't happen. Minnesota might still want to be spoilers, but I don't think they can get past Michigan State's defense. After all, they couldn't get past Wisconsin's defense, and the Spartans are better. MICHIGAN STATE by 13
Arizona Wildcats at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another intense in-state rivalry that will put everyone on the field, despite already clinching a division title. The Sun Devils obviously don't want to risk injuring anyone before facing Stanford, but you won't be able to keep the kids off the field for this game. The Widlcats won't be pushovers, either, so they might need the starts. ARIZONA STATE by 18
#25 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels: I would certainly love Duke to win their first ACC division title ever, and play for their first ACC title in over seventy years. North Carolina won't make it easy, though. The Tar Heels have reversed a disasterous 1-5 start with five consecutive wins, four against ACC teams. Of course, except for Georgia Tech, they were the among the weakest teams in the conference, so we're not sure what to make of it. I'll pick Duke, but the Tar Heels could play spoiler and make the Coastal title picture murky. DUKE by six
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense will roll over the Boilermakers, meaning Purdue would fail to beat a single FBS opponent this season. INDIANA by 17
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini broke their Big Ten jinx with a close win at Purdue. I would feel more comfortable if the offense had done better, but now they get rival Northwestern at home to close the season. Northwestern, after the reaching the Top 25 will tremendous non-conference victories, collapsed in conference play. They never seemed to recover from their conference opener against Ohio State. Northwestern is the better team, but my heart wants Illinois to win, so I'm picking the upset. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest
Friday had most of these, but here's one with major implications:
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies win the Mountain West Mountain division with a win here, regardless of how Boise plays that evening. Wyoming may be exhausted after the offensive showcase exhibited with Hawaii this past weekend, so I like the Aggies chances to win outright. UTAH STATE by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: #21 UCLA Bruins at #24 USC Trojans: There are plenty of rivalry games this weekend. Why did I pick this one for the Game of the Week? First of all, this one matches the intensity of the Iron Bowl and Ohio State v Michigan. There is usually at least one brawl during this game. Also, these two teams are more closely matched than the other rivalries. Truthfully this game could go either way. UCLA has the better offense, and a desire to correct for this past weekend's debacle. The Trojans have a chance to make a stand for their interim coach, Ed Orgeron, whose name is finally in the pool of candidates for the full-time coaching position. A victory over their bitter crosstown rivals will certainly go a long way towards sealing that deal. I think this game could come down to ball control, which USC has been doing better recently. USC by three
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