The bowl games are over. We had some pretty one-sided affairs early, but the final few games provided some thrilling games. Ironically, the Power 5 conferences all hovered near 50% in bowl percentages. The ACC was 50%, and the others were all a half-game game away from 50%: Big XII, Big Ten, and SEC higher and Pac-12 lower. The final conference results in the bowls were:
1. Conference USA (4-2)
2. Independents (2-1)
3 (tie). Mountain West (3-2)
3 (tie). Sun Belt (3-2)
5. Big XII (4-3)
6. Big Ten (5-4)
7. SEC (6-5)
8. ACC (5-5)
9. Pac-12 (3-4)
10. American (2-7)
11. MAC (1-5)
There were some upsets among the Top 25, so the final rankings are:
Top 25 [Previous position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0 [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (14-0) [2]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) [5] : Although they slacked off a bit in the fourth quarter, they had built up a large enough lead to allow Washington to feel good about themselves and still win the game
4. UCF Golden Knights (12-1) [4] : No claim for co-National Champion this year. They lost big, and should have dropped, but this shows the gap between them the top teams and the next group, as my computer model kept them in the Top 5
5. Oklahoma Sooners (12-2) [6] : Who goes UP one position after a loss? Well, when that loss is to the top team in the country and you nearly came back to win that game, you get credit for that
6. Fresno State Bulldogs (12-2) [10]
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) [3] : They may have justified claims that the Irish didn't deserve to be in the playoffs
8. Utah State Aggies (11-2) [13]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (11-3) [7] : Bevo nearly skewered Uga before the game, and the Longhorns DID skewer the Bulldogs during the game, silencing any cries that Georgia deserved to be in the playoffs
10. Appalachian State Mountaineers (11-2) [14]
11. Washington State Cougars (11-2) [12]
12. Boise State Broncos (10-3) [11] : Bad weather prevented their game from completing, which may have hurt their ranking
13. Michigan Wolverines (10-3) [8]
14. Cincinnati Bearcats (11-2) [15]
15. LSU Tigers (10-3) [16] : Beating UCF should have raised them more, but there was a large gap between #15 and #16 in the final pre-bowl Top 25, and they couldn't quite bridge it well enough
16. Texas Longhorns (10-4) [18]
17. Florida Gators (10-3) [20]
18. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-4) [9] : Perhaps the biggest disappointment among Top 25 teams in the bowls
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (9-4) [19]
20. Army Black Knights (11-2) [21]
21. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4) [17]
22. Syracuse Orange (10-3) [24]
23. Washington Huskies (10-4) [22]
24. Kentucky Wildcats (10-3) [NR]
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-5) [23]
And now, my pick for the National Championship Game. For the third time, Alabama and Clemson meet for the national title. Alabama won the first one, Clemson won the second one. This is the rubber match. Clemson thoroughly trounced Notre Dame, while the Alabama defense let Oklahoma come back in the second half. This has many national analysts siding with Clemson. I'm not so quit to count out the Tide. You see, this Tide squad is different. They don't feel the need to demolish opponents. They are more interested in doing interesting (and sometimes fun) things on the field, and having a good time. I remember the Citadel game during the season. Citadel and Alabama were tied at halftime. Twitter was exploding with people wondering if Alabama had lost their mojo, and what this meant for the team. Then Alabama came out and dominated in the second half, like they knew they could.
The Alabama 2018 squad has remembered that a win is a win, and that this is still a game. So long as they win, they don't have to destroy opponents to prove their dominance. Hell, they have won four championships in less than ten years, they don't have anything to prove to anyone. They know what they can do, and so does most of the country, even as short-term as most sports analysts memories are. This will likely be a close game, but it will be fifth title for Saban's Tide. ALABAMA
Friday, January 4, 2019
NFL 2018 Wildcard week picks
Saturday Jan 5
#6 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at #3 Houston Texans (11-5) : The Colts are on a roll coming into the playoffs, and that has often been a good sign. After starting 1-5, they have won 9 of their last 10 games, winning mostly on clever play calling (including some very unexpected moves from Frank Reich, who specialized in unexpected when he was backup QB in Buffalo) and excellent performances from Andrew Luck. Indy even beat Houston the last time they played, which could make Texans fans nervous. However, Houston has a bright spot as well, and it's new QB Deshaun Watson. Also a player willing to take some risks, he has an excellent sense of what is happening on the field and how to respond to it. Combine that with the Texans defense, which has faltered at times but has some key players healthy again, and the Texans stand a good chance to win this game. An upset is possible, as momentum can be key in the playoffs (just ask the Giants!), but I give a slight edge to the home team. TEXANS, 26-24
#5 Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at #4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6) : Momentum is on the side of Seattle, who have won five of their last six games. However, a poor road record is NOT on Seattle's side. Worse, they win close games because their best-functioning aspect is their offensive ground game, a pounding punishing physical battle designed to wear down opponents. The Cowboys defensive does not have a strong bench, so that strategy might work, unless the Seahawks fall behind. That seems likely now that Amari Cooper has rejuvenated the Cowboys passing game. The Cowboys offense was anemic before they traded for Cooper, now he is their most potent target. Given the number of talented defensive players Seattle has lost in the past three years, especially in the defensive backfield, I see Dallas taking a large enough lead to hinder the Seattle running game, and allowing Dallas to control the pace of the game. COWBOYS, 31-20
Sunday Jan 6
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at #4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) : The Chargers have the best record for a #5 seed in a long time. That would seem to make them an obvious pick. However, the Chargers have an atrocious postseason record, and the Ravens beat them handily in Week 16. That win was due to the Ravens stiff defense and excellent play by Lamar Jackson. In fact, since taking over as starting QB, Jackson has amassed a 6-1 record and escalated the Ravens past the Steelers, who almost seemed a lock on the playoffs a month ago. All the signs would seem to point to a Ravens victory. And that victory may happen, but I tilt towards the Chargers for two reasons: wildcard weekend almost always has at least one road team win, and beating a non-divisional opponent twice in the same season can be hard. The Chargers have now seen what Jackson can do. Furthermore, Jackson is still learning, so the Chargers can come up with a defensive game plan he has not seen before. I am going out on a limb and picking the Chargers in a rare playoff victory. CHARGERS, 27-24
#6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at #3 Chicago Bears (12-4) : Many people have wondered why Chicago, in the second half of last week's game, with the outcome of the Rams game pretty much sealed, didn't simply rest and allow the Vikings to win that game? After all, the first half proved that Chicago could beat Minnesota, and a Vikings win would send them to Chicago to face the Bears again in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, Coach Nagy had even hinted at that earlier in the week. Instead, the Bears bore down and ground the Vikings to a halt. Why? Because the Bears players wanted to play, and continue to play hard. That's the kind of attitude that the Eagles had last season, an attitude that carried them right to the Super Bowl. It's also an attitude that has been missing on that team most of this year. Yes, the return of Nick Foles has sparked some of that, but it still isn't as intense as last season. The Bears have a fearsome defense again, and an offense that works; sometimes despite themselves. Again, that draws parallels to the 2017 Eagles squad. BEARS, 24-17
#6 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at #3 Houston Texans (11-5) : The Colts are on a roll coming into the playoffs, and that has often been a good sign. After starting 1-5, they have won 9 of their last 10 games, winning mostly on clever play calling (including some very unexpected moves from Frank Reich, who specialized in unexpected when he was backup QB in Buffalo) and excellent performances from Andrew Luck. Indy even beat Houston the last time they played, which could make Texans fans nervous. However, Houston has a bright spot as well, and it's new QB Deshaun Watson. Also a player willing to take some risks, he has an excellent sense of what is happening on the field and how to respond to it. Combine that with the Texans defense, which has faltered at times but has some key players healthy again, and the Texans stand a good chance to win this game. An upset is possible, as momentum can be key in the playoffs (just ask the Giants!), but I give a slight edge to the home team. TEXANS, 26-24
#5 Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at #4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6) : Momentum is on the side of Seattle, who have won five of their last six games. However, a poor road record is NOT on Seattle's side. Worse, they win close games because their best-functioning aspect is their offensive ground game, a pounding punishing physical battle designed to wear down opponents. The Cowboys defensive does not have a strong bench, so that strategy might work, unless the Seahawks fall behind. That seems likely now that Amari Cooper has rejuvenated the Cowboys passing game. The Cowboys offense was anemic before they traded for Cooper, now he is their most potent target. Given the number of talented defensive players Seattle has lost in the past three years, especially in the defensive backfield, I see Dallas taking a large enough lead to hinder the Seattle running game, and allowing Dallas to control the pace of the game. COWBOYS, 31-20
Sunday Jan 6
#5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at #4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) : The Chargers have the best record for a #5 seed in a long time. That would seem to make them an obvious pick. However, the Chargers have an atrocious postseason record, and the Ravens beat them handily in Week 16. That win was due to the Ravens stiff defense and excellent play by Lamar Jackson. In fact, since taking over as starting QB, Jackson has amassed a 6-1 record and escalated the Ravens past the Steelers, who almost seemed a lock on the playoffs a month ago. All the signs would seem to point to a Ravens victory. And that victory may happen, but I tilt towards the Chargers for two reasons: wildcard weekend almost always has at least one road team win, and beating a non-divisional opponent twice in the same season can be hard. The Chargers have now seen what Jackson can do. Furthermore, Jackson is still learning, so the Chargers can come up with a defensive game plan he has not seen before. I am going out on a limb and picking the Chargers in a rare playoff victory. CHARGERS, 27-24
#6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at #3 Chicago Bears (12-4) : Many people have wondered why Chicago, in the second half of last week's game, with the outcome of the Rams game pretty much sealed, didn't simply rest and allow the Vikings to win that game? After all, the first half proved that Chicago could beat Minnesota, and a Vikings win would send them to Chicago to face the Bears again in the first round of the playoffs. In fact, Coach Nagy had even hinted at that earlier in the week. Instead, the Bears bore down and ground the Vikings to a halt. Why? Because the Bears players wanted to play, and continue to play hard. That's the kind of attitude that the Eagles had last season, an attitude that carried them right to the Super Bowl. It's also an attitude that has been missing on that team most of this year. Yes, the return of Nick Foles has sparked some of that, but it still isn't as intense as last season. The Bears have a fearsome defense again, and an offense that works; sometimes despite themselves. Again, that draws parallels to the 2017 Eagles squad. BEARS, 24-17
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