I'm stuffing a lot into this post (appropriate for Thanksgiving weekend), as we conclude Rivalry Week and prepare for the final regular season week of college football. As expected in Rivalry Week, there were upsets and unexpected results. Western Kentucky spoiled Marshall's perfect season by successfully going for a two-point conversion in the first overtime period, beating them 67-66. Stanford demolished UCLA. Pitt shocked Miami to become bowl eligible. Air Force upset Colorado State, and Georgia Tech intercepted Georgia in overtime to seal their victory.
Some teams fought hard, even if they didn't win. Kentucky swapped leads with Louisville, who eventually won 44-40. Other surprises involved games expected to be close, which were major blowouts: Louisiana Tech over Rice, NC State over North Carolina, and Ole Miss over Mississippi State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1) [1] : Took over the game in the second half to knock off Auburn
2. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another close victory, and Jameis Winston throw four interceptions. They won't succeed against tough defenses
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [5] : Big win over rival Michigan, but lost QB JT Barrett. Everyone is signing their death warrant now, but the Buckeyes scored two touchdowns after Barrett left the game. They are still dangerous.
4. TCU Horned Frogs (10-1) [6] : Huge win over Texas
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [7] : Overpowered Oregon State
6. Baylor Bears (10-1) [4] : Nearly lost to Texas Tech
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [10] : Huge win for Sparty
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) [9] : Minnesota hung in, but Wisconsin won the right to face Ohio State
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [3] : Destroyed by Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) [11] : Great defeat of in-state rival
11. Arizona Wildcats (10-2) [12] : Won the right to face Oregon
12. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [8] : Fell to Tech
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [15] : Dominating victory over Miss St to conclude the season
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [14]
15. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [17]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
17. Missouri Tigers (10-2) [18] : Great win to send them to the SEC Championship Game on momentuim
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1) [13] : Unbeaten season is gone
19. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [24] : Thoroughly dominant over strong Utah State team
20. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [23]
21. Arizona State Wildcats (9-3) [19]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [21]
23. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [22]
24. USC Trojans (8-4) [27]
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) [NR]
Dropped out: UCLA Bruins [#20], Louisville Cardinals [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4, LSU Tigers (8-4), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Before I get into the picks, let's look at the conferences without championship games, and see how their races are going:
American Athletic: Memphis has at least a share of the title. If UCF beats East Carolina, they have a share. If East Carolina wins, Memphis wins outright.
Big XII: If Baylor beats Kansas State, they win the title. If Baylor loses, TCU gets it (so long as they beat Iowa State). If by some weird chance both TCU and Baylor lose, then Kansas State is Big XII Champion.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won
Non-Championship Games:
Thurs Dec 4
UCF Golden Knights at East Carolina Pirates: As stated above, UCF is battling for a share of the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina would love to play spoiler, and I think they have the defense to do it. EAST CAROLINA by four
Sat Dec 6
Iowa State Cyclones at #4 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU should win easily. They need a huge victory to impress the playoff selection committee. TCU by 27
#15 Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Baylor Bears The TCU game will be long complete when this game kicks off, so K State will know if they have a chance at the title. I don't think they will, so without that incentive they won't play as hard. BAYLOR by 13
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #14 Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma is playing for nothing more than a good bowl, but that's incentive enough against their in-state rival. OKLAHOMA by 20
Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincy should win, even though they can't get a share of the title if they do. CINCY by 16
Championship games:
MAC Championship: Bowling Green Falcons v Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois is certainly the stronger team, but surprises often happen in this conference's championship. I'll stick with the Huskies, though. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Conference USA Championship: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v #18 Marshall Thundering Herd: Marshall's chance at an unbeaten season has been wiped out, but they still want the respect they didn't get all season. A big win here will go a long way to getting that. MARSHALL by 26
Mountain West Championship: Fresno State Bulldogs v #19 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State made the championships because their division is weak. More so than the SEC, this conference has two divisions at entirely different power levels. BOISE STATE by 24
Pac-12 Championship: #11 Arizona Wildcats v #5 Oregon Ducks: Oregon knows that a victory leads to a spot in the playoffs. Arizona can be tricky. They are also the only team to have already beaten the Ducks this season. Can they make it two in a row? Maybe, but I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by eight
Big Ten Championship: #8 Wisconsin Badgers v #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Most people are writing off Ohio State, but they scored twice after JT Barrett went down with injury. The strategy here is for Ohio State's defense to slow the running game of Wisconsin. If they can force Stave to throw, they can stop drives and even generate turnovers. Stave is not a great quarterback, and is prone to bad judgement when he is rushed. The Buckeyes could win, even with their third string quarterback, under those circumstances. It is tough to slow down the Badgers' running attack, though, so I'll favor them by a slight margin. WISCONSIN by six
ACC Championship: #2 Florida State Seminoles v #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Here is my first real upset in these championships. Florida State has sputtered during most the season. The past two weeks their "second half magic" has been lacking, too. Georgia Tech has a strong enough defense to disrupt the inconsistent Jameis Winston. The Seminoles didn't face the Yellow Jackets during the regular season, so they don't know what they are getting. GEORGIA TECH by ten
SEC Championship: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #17 Missouri Tigers: Missouri is a tough team, but Alabama is tougher. ALABAMA by 17
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Thursday, November 27, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 13 picks
This is the weekend that indicates the start of the home stretch of the NFL season -- Thanksgiving weekend.
Thanksgiving games
Strangely, all of the Thanksgiving Day games are divisional match-ups.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: A few years ago, when Detroit was playing poorly, there was talk about taking the Thanksgiving Game away from them. Now the Lions are one of the top teams in the NFC. They come into this game on a two-game losing streak, while the Bears, openly reviled earlier in the season, come in with a two-game winning streak. Will each of them extend to three games? As much as I love the Bears, I have to figure that the Lions will win this contest. LIONS, 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has a great history of winning on Thanksgiving Day, but the Eagles have the chance to put that in jeopardy. The Eagles offense can't be stopped, but only slowed. They may have slowed themselves, as Mark Sanchez is proving to hamper the effectiveness of that offense. Combine that with the excellent year of DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead in the NFC East. COWBOYS, 28-27
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: NBC gains a Thanksgiving night game as these teams, both of whom have been disappointing at times during this season, face off for second place in the competitive NFC West. Seattle usually plays worse at home than on the road, but recent weeks have seen some great road games. The 49ers offense has been off recently, while the Seahawks seem to be finally on track. Like the Seahawks' chances, but I will pick the home team. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater is improving, while the Panthers continue to struggle. The Vikings are having a tough year, but I like their chances to win this one. VIKINGS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Bucs Speaking of tough years, that describes the Bucs perfectly. The Bengals have had an up and down, but his will be an "up" week. BENGALS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: This will be a close contest. The difference might be Kyle Orton, the new Bills quarterback. He has breathed life back into the team, and he's putting up good numbers. Brian Hoyer started the season strongly, but he's been pedestrian lately. BILLS, 21-20
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Saints are in freefall, while the Steelers had a bye week to prepare. STEELERS, 26-23
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey, the Giants may have found an opponent they can beat! The Jags have shown some life recently, even if they can't quite win, so it may be closer than Giants fans would like. GIANTS, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at St Louis Rams: The Raiders are finding some life, but the Rams are too good for them. Both of them suffer on defense, but the Rams offense is functioning better. RAMS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens definitely have this one in the bag. The Chargers may get a last minute touchdown to make the score look close, but the game won't be that close. RAVENS, 24-21
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Houston can even their record with a victory here. They should get it, as the Titans are in a state of disarray. TEXANS, 24-17
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: I would have picked the Colts regardless of the quarterback. With Colt McCoy under center, this is a sure victory for Indy. COLTS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: The Cards were shut down last week, so they have plenty of incentive to show off their offense. With Atlanta's sputtering defense, they will get the chance. CARDINALS, 24-20
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: Expect an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense is a little stronger than Green Bay's, but the game is at Lambeau. This game could go either way, but I like how Belichick and company prepare for the mighty opponents. I'll give a slight edge to the Patriots. PATRIOTS, 31-27
Sunday night: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have a good defense, but not quite good enough to hold back Peyton Manning and the Broncos. It'll be a close game, though, which means the Broncos may force some plays. If they commit a late turnover, the Chiefs could win, but I'll stick with the Broncos. BRONCOS, 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Typically you can throw out the records when these two meet, as they get ultra-competitive. However, Geno Smith is back under center. Given his propensity for turnovers, and the Dolphins opportunistic defense, this game won't be close. DOLPHINS, 27-13
Thanksgiving games
Strangely, all of the Thanksgiving Day games are divisional match-ups.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: A few years ago, when Detroit was playing poorly, there was talk about taking the Thanksgiving Game away from them. Now the Lions are one of the top teams in the NFC. They come into this game on a two-game losing streak, while the Bears, openly reviled earlier in the season, come in with a two-game winning streak. Will each of them extend to three games? As much as I love the Bears, I have to figure that the Lions will win this contest. LIONS, 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has a great history of winning on Thanksgiving Day, but the Eagles have the chance to put that in jeopardy. The Eagles offense can't be stopped, but only slowed. They may have slowed themselves, as Mark Sanchez is proving to hamper the effectiveness of that offense. Combine that with the excellent year of DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead in the NFC East. COWBOYS, 28-27
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: NBC gains a Thanksgiving night game as these teams, both of whom have been disappointing at times during this season, face off for second place in the competitive NFC West. Seattle usually plays worse at home than on the road, but recent weeks have seen some great road games. The 49ers offense has been off recently, while the Seahawks seem to be finally on track. Like the Seahawks' chances, but I will pick the home team. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater is improving, while the Panthers continue to struggle. The Vikings are having a tough year, but I like their chances to win this one. VIKINGS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Bucs Speaking of tough years, that describes the Bucs perfectly. The Bengals have had an up and down, but his will be an "up" week. BENGALS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: This will be a close contest. The difference might be Kyle Orton, the new Bills quarterback. He has breathed life back into the team, and he's putting up good numbers. Brian Hoyer started the season strongly, but he's been pedestrian lately. BILLS, 21-20
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Saints are in freefall, while the Steelers had a bye week to prepare. STEELERS, 26-23
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey, the Giants may have found an opponent they can beat! The Jags have shown some life recently, even if they can't quite win, so it may be closer than Giants fans would like. GIANTS, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at St Louis Rams: The Raiders are finding some life, but the Rams are too good for them. Both of them suffer on defense, but the Rams offense is functioning better. RAMS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens definitely have this one in the bag. The Chargers may get a last minute touchdown to make the score look close, but the game won't be that close. RAVENS, 24-21
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Houston can even their record with a victory here. They should get it, as the Titans are in a state of disarray. TEXANS, 24-17
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: I would have picked the Colts regardless of the quarterback. With Colt McCoy under center, this is a sure victory for Indy. COLTS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: The Cards were shut down last week, so they have plenty of incentive to show off their offense. With Atlanta's sputtering defense, they will get the chance. CARDINALS, 24-20
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: Expect an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense is a little stronger than Green Bay's, but the game is at Lambeau. This game could go either way, but I like how Belichick and company prepare for the mighty opponents. I'll give a slight edge to the Patriots. PATRIOTS, 31-27
Sunday night: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have a good defense, but not quite good enough to hold back Peyton Manning and the Broncos. It'll be a close game, though, which means the Broncos may force some plays. If they commit a late turnover, the Chiefs could win, but I'll stick with the Broncos. BRONCOS, 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Typically you can throw out the records when these two meet, as they get ultra-competitive. However, Geno Smith is back under center. Given his propensity for turnovers, and the Dolphins opportunistic defense, this game won't be close. DOLPHINS, 27-13
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 12 news and Power Rankings
This week's takeaways:
1. Nobody is playing better than New England right now. They thoroughly trashed the Lions, and totally dominated all phases of the game. They do it by rotating stars, as they haven't had two consecutive games this season where the same player has been the leading rusher.
2. There were many last minute lead changes in the league this week. Lesson: never count any team out
3. Something really needs to be done about the NFC South. With both Atlanta and New Orleans losing this week, the division leaders have 4-7 records. That means if they each lose just ONE more game, the best the division winner can finish would be 8-8; 7-9 is more likely. In fact, it's possible for the division winner to be 6-10, which would be the first time a team with double-digit losses to make the playoffs. Maybe it's time for the league to say, "This division is not playoff caliber," and give that spot to a more deserving NFC team.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) [2] : Clearly the most dominating team in the league right now
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3) [3] : The second best offense in the league right now, and a dominating team in their right, although Minnesota scored a lot
3. Arizona Cardinals (9-2) [1] : Burned by the defending Super Bowl champs
4. Denver Broncos (8-3) [4] : Had to come from behind, but they showed the Dolphins defense has holes. Their defense needs work, though.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) [6] : Strongest of the AFC North, yet in last place due to division record
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) [7] : Despite some sputtering by Mark Sanchez, this offense keeps rolling
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Bounced back from their thrashing at the hands of the Patriots, but they did play Jacksonville, after all
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [8] : Not a strong victory, and let the Giants back into the game, but they keep pace with the Eagles
9. Seattle Seahawks (7-4) [12] : Dominant road victory over the former Number One team bounces Seattle back into the Top Ten
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) [5] : Lost to previously unbeaten Oakland
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : All the teams have seven wins. Epitome of parity
2. NFC West [3] : With Seattle and San Francisco winning again, this division is rising
3. AFC East [5] : Buffalo and New England had dominant wins
4. AFC West [2] : Both Denver and San Diego had to engineer fourth-quarter comebacks
5. NFC East [6] : The gap between the two leaders and the rest of the division is growing
6. NFC North [4] : With Detroit's huge loss, Green Bay is the only team with a positive difference between points scored and points allowed
7. AFC South [7] : The Colts are pulling away, and are the only winning team in the division
8. NFC South [8] : Leaders with 4-7 records? This is pathetic
1. Nobody is playing better than New England right now. They thoroughly trashed the Lions, and totally dominated all phases of the game. They do it by rotating stars, as they haven't had two consecutive games this season where the same player has been the leading rusher.
2. There were many last minute lead changes in the league this week. Lesson: never count any team out
3. Something really needs to be done about the NFC South. With both Atlanta and New Orleans losing this week, the division leaders have 4-7 records. That means if they each lose just ONE more game, the best the division winner can finish would be 8-8; 7-9 is more likely. In fact, it's possible for the division winner to be 6-10, which would be the first time a team with double-digit losses to make the playoffs. Maybe it's time for the league to say, "This division is not playoff caliber," and give that spot to a more deserving NFC team.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) [2] : Clearly the most dominating team in the league right now
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3) [3] : The second best offense in the league right now, and a dominating team in their right, although Minnesota scored a lot
3. Arizona Cardinals (9-2) [1] : Burned by the defending Super Bowl champs
4. Denver Broncos (8-3) [4] : Had to come from behind, but they showed the Dolphins defense has holes. Their defense needs work, though.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) [6] : Strongest of the AFC North, yet in last place due to division record
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) [7] : Despite some sputtering by Mark Sanchez, this offense keeps rolling
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Bounced back from their thrashing at the hands of the Patriots, but they did play Jacksonville, after all
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [8] : Not a strong victory, and let the Giants back into the game, but they keep pace with the Eagles
9. Seattle Seahawks (7-4) [12] : Dominant road victory over the former Number One team bounces Seattle back into the Top Ten
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) [5] : Lost to previously unbeaten Oakland
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : All the teams have seven wins. Epitome of parity
2. NFC West [3] : With Seattle and San Francisco winning again, this division is rising
3. AFC East [5] : Buffalo and New England had dominant wins
4. AFC West [2] : Both Denver and San Diego had to engineer fourth-quarter comebacks
5. NFC East [6] : The gap between the two leaders and the rest of the division is growing
6. NFC North [4] : With Detroit's huge loss, Green Bay is the only team with a positive difference between points scored and points allowed
7. AFC South [7] : The Colts are pulling away, and are the only winning team in the division
8. NFC South [8] : Leaders with 4-7 records? This is pathetic
Sunday, November 23, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 14 title races and picks
American Athletic: Memphis retains their half-game lead, and they have the tiebreaker over Cincy. If they beat UConn, they at least share the title with UCF, and given their higher ranking, would represent the conference. UCF has a tougher road, facing both South Florida and East Carolina.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech won the right to face Florida State
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins
Big Ten West: The winner of this week's Wisconsin - Minnesota game wins the division
Big XII: 3-way tie for the lead among Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State. TCU has the easiest schedule, but Baylor controls their destiny. They previously beat TCU and close the season against Kansas State. If Baylor wins out, they win the conference. K State needs a TCU loss (who previously beat the Wildcats) and a win over Baylor. TCU needs to win out and hope K State beats Baylor.
Conference USA East: Marshall
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech's loss to Old Dominion means they need to beat Rice to win the division. If Rice wins, they play Marshall
MAC East: Bowling Green has won the division
MAC West: Toledo beat Bowling Green to maintain the 3-way race for this title. If Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, they win the division, having previously beaten Toledo. Toledo needs a win and a Western Michigan win, as the Rockets previously beat the Broncos. Western Michigan needs to beat Northern Illinois and hope Toledo loses.
Mountain West Mountain: If Boise State beats Utah State, they win the division. If the Aggies win and the Rams win, the Rams capture the title. The Aggies need a Rams loss and a victory over Boise State.
Mountain West West: Fresno State and San Diego State lead. Since the Bulldogs previously beat the Aztecs, Fresno State wins the division with a victory over Hawaii. San Diego State needs Hawaii to beat the Bulldogs while they take care of San Jose State. Losses by both of these teams makes the division title messy.
Pac-12 North: Oregon
Pac-12 South: UCLA wins the title if they beat Stanford, as they previously beat both Arizona and Arizona State. If Stanford upsets UCLA, the winner of the Battle for Arizona wins the division.
SEC East: If Missouri wins, they capture the division. A Tiger loss gives the title to Georgia
SEC West: Alabama has won the title
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won the title
Tues Nov 25
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio wants the win to be bowl-eiligible, although I don't think they'll be chosen for a bowl anyway. OHIO by 10
Thurs Nov 27
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns: TCU shouldn't have much trouble beating Texas, but winning the Big XII is a tougher challenge. TCU by 24
LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Thanksgiving evening used to be the Texas - Texas A&M game. Now that those two teams are in separate conferences, they have split up and each play a conference opponent on Thanksgiving. The Aggies may have the better shot at winning. Both they and LSU have 7-4 records, although LSU has been more impressive in their victories. I give LSU the nod, but Texas A&M could win. LSU by nine
Fri Nov 28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: Will Marshall rest their starters in preparation of the Conference USA Championship? After all, they know that an unbeaten record gives them no chance to play in the playoffs. If they rest them, Western Kentucky has the talent to win. However, I think Marshall has something to prove, and that unbeaten record is important to them. MARSHALL by 20
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Nebraska has lost two games in a row. Minnesota played them closer than Wisconsin, but the Huskers are definitely slipping. Iowa might beat them, but the Hawkeyes haven't exactly been cruising recently either. NEBRASKA by six
Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Missouri Tigers: Arkansas has shut out two opponents in a row, but I don't think they'll make it three. Arkansas might win, but Missouri needs this victory to capture the SEC East title, so that should be incentive enough to win, even if it takes a late score. MISSOURI by four
Stanford Cardinal at #20 UCLA Bruins: It's simple for UCLA -- they win, they capture the division title. Stanford would love to play spoiler, but I don't think their defense is good enough this year to do it. UCLA by six
#22 Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons: The Rams are 10-1 and still need Utah State to upset Boise in order to capture the division title. The Rams will do their part by grounding the Falcons. COLORADO STATE by 20
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: The battle for the MAC West should see Northern Illinois victorious, but the Huskies have been mostly unimpressive, despite a 9-2 record. Watch out for a Broncos upset. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine
UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: UCF needs the win to have even a chance at the conference title. They should get it. UCF by 16
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: The Pirates don't have a chance at the conference title, but they are playing for a great bowl game. Tulsa won't be that tough an obstacle. EAST CAROLINA by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 Arizona State Sun Devils at #12 Arizona Wildcats: Yes, the Game of the Week is on Friday. The Iron Bowl is not as important as this game, which could decide a division title. This game is played at the same time as the UCLA game, so neither knows the result until the games are over. I think Arizona stands the better chance of winning, but these rivalry games can go either way. ARIZONA by eight
Sat Nov 29
Top 25:
#21 Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers often battle tough in the Iron Bowl, but Bama has had their number in recent years. Expect that trend to continue. ALABAMA by 13
Florida Gators at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Forget the rivalry on this one. Florida has been too inconsistent to challenge the comeback kids. Florida State may have their easiest victory of the season. FLORIDA STATE by 17
#3 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #15 Ole Miss Rebels: Prior to Arkansas, I was picking this game to be a close challenge. Now, too many holes have been exposed in Ole Miss' defense. Expect the Bulldogs to capitalize and further cement their place in the playoffs. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 12
#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Baylor is in the driver's seat for both the conference title and the playoffs. That will propel them to a strong win, especially with the porous defense of Tech. BAYLOR by 24
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The close call against Indiana will be a wake-up call for the Buckeyes, not that they need any additional incentive to get it up for Michigan. OHIO STATE by 23
#7 Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers love to play spoiler against their in-state rivals. While the Ducks have too many tools, the Beavers might keep it close, which could impact the playoff selection committee. OREGON by 13
#11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #8 Georgia Bulldogs: Tech had an extra week to prepare, while Georgia didn't really have a warm-up opponent in Charleston Southern. This will be a real dog fight (no pun intended, Uga), but I'll give a slight edge to the home team. GEORGIA by four
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #9 Wisconsin Badgers: Minnesota beat Nebraska to remain in the division hunt, but they face the Badgers. As good as Minnesota has been, Wisconsin has punished opponents in recent weeks, and I have to expect them to do that again. WISCONSIN by 17
#10 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State was shocked by Illinois last week, and would love to finish with a win. Unfortunately they host the Spartans; they won't get that win. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Kansas Jayhawks at #17 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas seems to have exhausted themselves when they played TCU. That helps Kansas State. KANSAS STATE by 23
UConn Huskies at #23 Memphis Tigers: UConn is having a tough year, so this should be an easy victory for Memphis. The fact that a win gives them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference title is a bonus. MEMPHIS by 24
Utah State Aggies at #24 Boise State Broncos: This might be the toughest challenge the Broncos have faced in weeks. The Broncos win their division with a win, but the Aggies may have hope if the Rams lose on Friday. Even if the Rams win, Utah State might like playing spoiler. This will be a real battle, but I give a slight edge to Boise State. BOISE STATE by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #25 Louisville Cardinals: Kentucky was tough early in the season, but they've lost steam. LOUISVILLE by 14
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: The winner of this game is bowl-elibile, the loser stays home. It would be nice for the Illini to do that, but I think it's best that Northwestern wins. The bowl committee always pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records, because they don't want the Big Ten to succeed. Northwestern can be unpredictable, and may surprise an opponent. Illinois isn't there yet. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: The loser is the worst team in the Big Ten. Indiana is looking for their first conference win, and they played Ohio State hard last week. I have to pick the upset and go with Indiana to get their first win. INDIANA by three
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins: The two newest members of the conference close the season by playing each other. Both teams are bowl eligible, but Maryland has done a better job against conference opponents. I think the Terrapins will finish with a great 5-3 conference record. MARYLAND by ten
Other Games of Interest:
South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: South Carolina has been inconsistent and sputtering for most of the season. I have to side with Clemson on this one. CLEMSON by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls: Temple was doing well early in the season, but they have faltered. In the meanwhile, Cincy has improved. Cincy can't win the conference, but a win here pads their bowl resume. CINCINNATI by 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Irish have lost two in a row. Can the Trojans make it three? They themselves just lost to bitter rival UCLA, so they have incentive to go out and play a good game. So does Notre Dame. This will be a battle, but I think USC will edge it out late in the game, when the Irish tend to fade. USC by three
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils: Wake has suffered all season. While Duke has now lost a chance at the division title, they won't slack off now. DUKE by 18
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech won the right to face Florida State
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins
Big Ten West: The winner of this week's Wisconsin - Minnesota game wins the division
Big XII: 3-way tie for the lead among Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State. TCU has the easiest schedule, but Baylor controls their destiny. They previously beat TCU and close the season against Kansas State. If Baylor wins out, they win the conference. K State needs a TCU loss (who previously beat the Wildcats) and a win over Baylor. TCU needs to win out and hope K State beats Baylor.
Conference USA East: Marshall
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech's loss to Old Dominion means they need to beat Rice to win the division. If Rice wins, they play Marshall
MAC East: Bowling Green has won the division
MAC West: Toledo beat Bowling Green to maintain the 3-way race for this title. If Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, they win the division, having previously beaten Toledo. Toledo needs a win and a Western Michigan win, as the Rockets previously beat the Broncos. Western Michigan needs to beat Northern Illinois and hope Toledo loses.
Mountain West Mountain: If Boise State beats Utah State, they win the division. If the Aggies win and the Rams win, the Rams capture the title. The Aggies need a Rams loss and a victory over Boise State.
Mountain West West: Fresno State and San Diego State lead. Since the Bulldogs previously beat the Aztecs, Fresno State wins the division with a victory over Hawaii. San Diego State needs Hawaii to beat the Bulldogs while they take care of San Jose State. Losses by both of these teams makes the division title messy.
Pac-12 North: Oregon
Pac-12 South: UCLA wins the title if they beat Stanford, as they previously beat both Arizona and Arizona State. If Stanford upsets UCLA, the winner of the Battle for Arizona wins the division.
SEC East: If Missouri wins, they capture the division. A Tiger loss gives the title to Georgia
SEC West: Alabama has won the title
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won the title
Tues Nov 25
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio wants the win to be bowl-eiligible, although I don't think they'll be chosen for a bowl anyway. OHIO by 10
Thurs Nov 27
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns: TCU shouldn't have much trouble beating Texas, but winning the Big XII is a tougher challenge. TCU by 24
LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Thanksgiving evening used to be the Texas - Texas A&M game. Now that those two teams are in separate conferences, they have split up and each play a conference opponent on Thanksgiving. The Aggies may have the better shot at winning. Both they and LSU have 7-4 records, although LSU has been more impressive in their victories. I give LSU the nod, but Texas A&M could win. LSU by nine
Fri Nov 28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: Will Marshall rest their starters in preparation of the Conference USA Championship? After all, they know that an unbeaten record gives them no chance to play in the playoffs. If they rest them, Western Kentucky has the talent to win. However, I think Marshall has something to prove, and that unbeaten record is important to them. MARSHALL by 20
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Nebraska has lost two games in a row. Minnesota played them closer than Wisconsin, but the Huskers are definitely slipping. Iowa might beat them, but the Hawkeyes haven't exactly been cruising recently either. NEBRASKA by six
Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Missouri Tigers: Arkansas has shut out two opponents in a row, but I don't think they'll make it three. Arkansas might win, but Missouri needs this victory to capture the SEC East title, so that should be incentive enough to win, even if it takes a late score. MISSOURI by four
Stanford Cardinal at #20 UCLA Bruins: It's simple for UCLA -- they win, they capture the division title. Stanford would love to play spoiler, but I don't think their defense is good enough this year to do it. UCLA by six
#22 Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons: The Rams are 10-1 and still need Utah State to upset Boise in order to capture the division title. The Rams will do their part by grounding the Falcons. COLORADO STATE by 20
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: The battle for the MAC West should see Northern Illinois victorious, but the Huskies have been mostly unimpressive, despite a 9-2 record. Watch out for a Broncos upset. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine
UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: UCF needs the win to have even a chance at the conference title. They should get it. UCF by 16
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: The Pirates don't have a chance at the conference title, but they are playing for a great bowl game. Tulsa won't be that tough an obstacle. EAST CAROLINA by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 Arizona State Sun Devils at #12 Arizona Wildcats: Yes, the Game of the Week is on Friday. The Iron Bowl is not as important as this game, which could decide a division title. This game is played at the same time as the UCLA game, so neither knows the result until the games are over. I think Arizona stands the better chance of winning, but these rivalry games can go either way. ARIZONA by eight
Sat Nov 29
Top 25:
#21 Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers often battle tough in the Iron Bowl, but Bama has had their number in recent years. Expect that trend to continue. ALABAMA by 13
Florida Gators at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Forget the rivalry on this one. Florida has been too inconsistent to challenge the comeback kids. Florida State may have their easiest victory of the season. FLORIDA STATE by 17
#3 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #15 Ole Miss Rebels: Prior to Arkansas, I was picking this game to be a close challenge. Now, too many holes have been exposed in Ole Miss' defense. Expect the Bulldogs to capitalize and further cement their place in the playoffs. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 12
#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Baylor is in the driver's seat for both the conference title and the playoffs. That will propel them to a strong win, especially with the porous defense of Tech. BAYLOR by 24
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The close call against Indiana will be a wake-up call for the Buckeyes, not that they need any additional incentive to get it up for Michigan. OHIO STATE by 23
#7 Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers love to play spoiler against their in-state rivals. While the Ducks have too many tools, the Beavers might keep it close, which could impact the playoff selection committee. OREGON by 13
#11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #8 Georgia Bulldogs: Tech had an extra week to prepare, while Georgia didn't really have a warm-up opponent in Charleston Southern. This will be a real dog fight (no pun intended, Uga), but I'll give a slight edge to the home team. GEORGIA by four
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #9 Wisconsin Badgers: Minnesota beat Nebraska to remain in the division hunt, but they face the Badgers. As good as Minnesota has been, Wisconsin has punished opponents in recent weeks, and I have to expect them to do that again. WISCONSIN by 17
#10 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State was shocked by Illinois last week, and would love to finish with a win. Unfortunately they host the Spartans; they won't get that win. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Kansas Jayhawks at #17 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas seems to have exhausted themselves when they played TCU. That helps Kansas State. KANSAS STATE by 23
UConn Huskies at #23 Memphis Tigers: UConn is having a tough year, so this should be an easy victory for Memphis. The fact that a win gives them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference title is a bonus. MEMPHIS by 24
Utah State Aggies at #24 Boise State Broncos: This might be the toughest challenge the Broncos have faced in weeks. The Broncos win their division with a win, but the Aggies may have hope if the Rams lose on Friday. Even if the Rams win, Utah State might like playing spoiler. This will be a real battle, but I give a slight edge to Boise State. BOISE STATE by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #25 Louisville Cardinals: Kentucky was tough early in the season, but they've lost steam. LOUISVILLE by 14
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: The winner of this game is bowl-elibile, the loser stays home. It would be nice for the Illini to do that, but I think it's best that Northwestern wins. The bowl committee always pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records, because they don't want the Big Ten to succeed. Northwestern can be unpredictable, and may surprise an opponent. Illinois isn't there yet. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: The loser is the worst team in the Big Ten. Indiana is looking for their first conference win, and they played Ohio State hard last week. I have to pick the upset and go with Indiana to get their first win. INDIANA by three
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins: The two newest members of the conference close the season by playing each other. Both teams are bowl eligible, but Maryland has done a better job against conference opponents. I think the Terrapins will finish with a great 5-3 conference record. MARYLAND by ten
Other Games of Interest:
South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: South Carolina has been inconsistent and sputtering for most of the season. I have to side with Clemson on this one. CLEMSON by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls: Temple was doing well early in the season, but they have faltered. In the meanwhile, Cincy has improved. Cincy can't win the conference, but a win here pads their bowl resume. CINCINNATI by 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Irish have lost two in a row. Can the Trojans make it three? They themselves just lost to bitter rival UCLA, so they have incentive to go out and play a good game. So does Notre Dame. This will be a battle, but I think USC will edge it out late in the game, when the Irish tend to fade. USC by three
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils: Wake has suffered all season. While Duke has now lost a chance at the division title, they won't slack off now. DUKE by 18
NCAA 2014 Week 13 results and Top 25
We haven't reached our quota of upsets and surprising results yet! It started Thursday, as Duke was demolished by North Carolina. That knocked Duke from the Top 25. Miami lost their chance at the Top 25 by losing to Virginia. Ole Miss was shut out by Arkansas, who registered their second consecutive shutout. Finally, UCLA dominated USC, knocking the Trojans from the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : Another close game, but this time they led at the half. Did not pull away from Boston College in the second half, though, so the magic may be gone.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) [5] : Demolished Vandy in a huge shutout
4. Baylor Bears (9-1) [4] : Strong offensive showing, but the Cowboys got in their licks
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [3] : Struggled badly in the first half against pitiful Indiana
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6]
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1) [10] : Strong win, combined with weak performances above them, advance the Ducks to Top 5 range
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) [7]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [8] : Let Iowa back into the game in the fourth quarter
10. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) [11]
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [14] : Sometimes it pays to take a week off
12. Arizona Wildcats (9-2) [21] : Most impressive win of the season
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-0) [12] : Nearly fell from the ranks of the unbeatens
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [15] : Kansas didn't give Oklahoma any problems
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) [9] : Huge loss for the Rebs
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3) [13] : The Huskers are moving the wrong way
17. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) [16]
18. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [18] : Closing in on their second consecutive SEC East title
19. Arizona State Sun Devils [19]
20. UCLA Bruins (9-2) [22] : Beat their crosstown rivals
21. Auburn Tigers (8-3) [20]
22. Colorado State Rams (10-1) [23]
23. Memphis Tigers (8-3) [27]
24. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [28]
25. Louisville Cardinals (8-3) [29]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#17], USC Trojans [#24], Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#25]
On the Edge: Utah State Aggies (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3), LSU Tigers (7-4), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : Another close game, but this time they led at the half. Did not pull away from Boston College in the second half, though, so the magic may be gone.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) [5] : Demolished Vandy in a huge shutout
4. Baylor Bears (9-1) [4] : Strong offensive showing, but the Cowboys got in their licks
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [3] : Struggled badly in the first half against pitiful Indiana
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6]
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1) [10] : Strong win, combined with weak performances above them, advance the Ducks to Top 5 range
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) [7]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [8] : Let Iowa back into the game in the fourth quarter
10. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) [11]
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [14] : Sometimes it pays to take a week off
12. Arizona Wildcats (9-2) [21] : Most impressive win of the season
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-0) [12] : Nearly fell from the ranks of the unbeatens
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [15] : Kansas didn't give Oklahoma any problems
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) [9] : Huge loss for the Rebs
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3) [13] : The Huskers are moving the wrong way
17. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) [16]
18. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [18] : Closing in on their second consecutive SEC East title
19. Arizona State Sun Devils [19]
20. UCLA Bruins (9-2) [22] : Beat their crosstown rivals
21. Auburn Tigers (8-3) [20]
22. Colorado State Rams (10-1) [23]
23. Memphis Tigers (8-3) [27]
24. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [28]
25. Louisville Cardinals (8-3) [29]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#17], USC Trojans [#24], Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#25]
On the Edge: Utah State Aggies (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3), LSU Tigers (7-4), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5)
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 12 picks
Thursday night: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Oakland is winless so far this season, and that will continue after this game. KC has a strong balance of offense and defense, and they will dominate this game. CHIEFS, 27-16
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Either team could win this game, but Ryan Mallet has breathed new life into the Texans since assuming the starting position. Throw in the Texans defense, and this team has the edge. TEXANS, 23-21
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had one good game last week, but basically they have been pathetic this season. The Browns have been doing fairly well, combining a smart defense with excellent play by Brian Hoyer, who is keeping Johnny Manziel on the bench. BROWNS, 23-20
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: Tough two-game streak for the Lions, who move from Arizona (the stiffest defense in the league) to New England (the best offense in the league). The Pats will blow them away while they light up the scoreboard. PATRIOTS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater has been playing fairly well, but the defense is lacking in Minnesota. Given the recent scoring by Green Bay, facing a weak defense is an invitation for another huge offense performance. PACKERS, 43-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts struggle against strong teams, but the Jags are not a strong team. COLTS, 31-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Speaking of teams that are not strong, the Jets qualify for that claim. BILLS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Chicago Bears: After beating Washington last week, the Bucs may believe they can win two in a row. However, the situation is different. In Washington, you had a team in disarray whose personal conflicts were bubbling below the surface, and they burst out during that game. The Bears have dealt with their demons and have emerged stronger. While their defense will give the Bucs a chance, the Bears offense will prevail. BEARS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Titans defense isn't strong enough to stop the Eagles, even if Mark Sanchez has regressed to his Jets performances. Against a team like Tennessee, this offense can be run even with a mediocre quarterback. EAGLES, 30-20
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The defending champs are entering a tough part of their schedule. They play very well at home, but I think the Cardinals will be a little too much for them. CARDINALS, 23-21
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: The Dolphins defense will give the Broncos some trouble, but they have the edge in the wintery weather of Denver. BRONCOS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: The Rams manhandled Denver, but San Diego is another story. Denver is one-sided -- they pass nearly all the time. The Chargers have a more diverse offense, and I think that's more than the Rams can handle. CHARGERS, 23-17
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: Both teams are in disarray, but the Redskins' conflicts have erupted this week, potentially distracting them from the game. Since some players reset the comments made by Coach Gruden, that conflict with the coach will impact their play on the field. Great opening for San Francisco. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Cowboys had a bye week to rest Romo's back. He'll have a good game. While Eli will not likely repeat his 5 INT performance from Sunday, there are too many problems on that offense for them to win. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: This is a tough game to pick. By numbers alone, the Ravens are the dominant force. However, the Saints play well at home, and play hard after tough losses. Both of those situations are in play for this game. I'll still pick the Ravens, because I'm a "numbers guy," but watch for a Saints victory. RAVENS, 26-23
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Either team could win this game, but Ryan Mallet has breathed new life into the Texans since assuming the starting position. Throw in the Texans defense, and this team has the edge. TEXANS, 23-21
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had one good game last week, but basically they have been pathetic this season. The Browns have been doing fairly well, combining a smart defense with excellent play by Brian Hoyer, who is keeping Johnny Manziel on the bench. BROWNS, 23-20
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: Tough two-game streak for the Lions, who move from Arizona (the stiffest defense in the league) to New England (the best offense in the league). The Pats will blow them away while they light up the scoreboard. PATRIOTS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater has been playing fairly well, but the defense is lacking in Minnesota. Given the recent scoring by Green Bay, facing a weak defense is an invitation for another huge offense performance. PACKERS, 43-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts struggle against strong teams, but the Jags are not a strong team. COLTS, 31-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Speaking of teams that are not strong, the Jets qualify for that claim. BILLS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Chicago Bears: After beating Washington last week, the Bucs may believe they can win two in a row. However, the situation is different. In Washington, you had a team in disarray whose personal conflicts were bubbling below the surface, and they burst out during that game. The Bears have dealt with their demons and have emerged stronger. While their defense will give the Bucs a chance, the Bears offense will prevail. BEARS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Titans defense isn't strong enough to stop the Eagles, even if Mark Sanchez has regressed to his Jets performances. Against a team like Tennessee, this offense can be run even with a mediocre quarterback. EAGLES, 30-20
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The defending champs are entering a tough part of their schedule. They play very well at home, but I think the Cardinals will be a little too much for them. CARDINALS, 23-21
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: The Dolphins defense will give the Broncos some trouble, but they have the edge in the wintery weather of Denver. BRONCOS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: The Rams manhandled Denver, but San Diego is another story. Denver is one-sided -- they pass nearly all the time. The Chargers have a more diverse offense, and I think that's more than the Rams can handle. CHARGERS, 23-17
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: Both teams are in disarray, but the Redskins' conflicts have erupted this week, potentially distracting them from the game. Since some players reset the comments made by Coach Gruden, that conflict with the coach will impact their play on the field. Great opening for San Francisco. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Cowboys had a bye week to rest Romo's back. He'll have a good game. While Eli will not likely repeat his 5 INT performance from Sunday, there are too many problems on that offense for them to win. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: This is a tough game to pick. By numbers alone, the Ravens are the dominant force. However, the Saints play well at home, and play hard after tough losses. Both of those situations are in play for this game. I'll still pick the Ravens, because I'm a "numbers guy," but watch for a Saints victory. RAVENS, 26-23
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 11 news and Power Rankings
Some takeaways this week:
1. The best offenses in the league belong to Green Bay and New England. No matter the defense, these two teams are posting college-level numbers.
2. Could the winner of the NFC South have a losing record? It's beginning to look that way. The Saints winning streak is over and they looked as bad as they did at the beginning of the season.
3. Tweak the Bears, they get angry. They generated more offense this week than any game but one, Matt Forte had a 100+ yard game for the first time in weeks, and they mixed rush and pass very effectively.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) [1] : The Cardinals didn't look great, but their defense controlled Detroit
2. New England Patriots (8-2) [2] : Best offense in the AFC
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) [6] : Best offense in the NFC
4. Denver Broncos (7-3) [3] : The Rams caused flashbacks of the Super Bowl
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) [7] : Quietly becoming a force in the league
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [9] : Good week for a bye
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) [4] : Spanked but good by the Pack
8. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [10] : Also benefits from a bye
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) [5] : Stomped by New England
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [8] : Their defense toughened after early scores by Arizona, but the Cards defense proved too much for Stafford and company
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Great wins by Cincy and Pitt
2. AFC West [2] : Despite Oakland, the other teams have winning records
3. NFC West [2] : Arizona continues to control, and this may be the first division title to be clinched
4. NFC North [5] : The Pack are rising fast and the Bears pulled out of their slump
5. AFC East [4] : Wins by the Pats and Dolphins were impressive
6. NFC East [5] : All of the teams who played lost. This division is losing steam
7. AFC South [7] The Texans evened their record, but the Colts were smashed
8. NFC South [8] : Definitely the worst division in the league
1. The best offenses in the league belong to Green Bay and New England. No matter the defense, these two teams are posting college-level numbers.
2. Could the winner of the NFC South have a losing record? It's beginning to look that way. The Saints winning streak is over and they looked as bad as they did at the beginning of the season.
3. Tweak the Bears, they get angry. They generated more offense this week than any game but one, Matt Forte had a 100+ yard game for the first time in weeks, and they mixed rush and pass very effectively.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) [1] : The Cardinals didn't look great, but their defense controlled Detroit
2. New England Patriots (8-2) [2] : Best offense in the AFC
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) [6] : Best offense in the NFC
4. Denver Broncos (7-3) [3] : The Rams caused flashbacks of the Super Bowl
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) [7] : Quietly becoming a force in the league
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [9] : Good week for a bye
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) [4] : Spanked but good by the Pack
8. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [10] : Also benefits from a bye
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) [5] : Stomped by New England
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [8] : Their defense toughened after early scores by Arizona, but the Cards defense proved too much for Stafford and company
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Great wins by Cincy and Pitt
2. AFC West [2] : Despite Oakland, the other teams have winning records
3. NFC West [2] : Arizona continues to control, and this may be the first division title to be clinched
4. NFC North [5] : The Pack are rising fast and the Bears pulled out of their slump
5. AFC East [4] : Wins by the Pats and Dolphins were impressive
6. NFC East [5] : All of the teams who played lost. This division is losing steam
7. AFC South [7] The Texans evened their record, but the Colts were smashed
8. NFC South [8] : Definitely the worst division in the league
Sunday, November 16, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 13 title races and picks
American Athletic: The picture gets a little clearer. Memphis holds a half-game lead over Cincinnati and UCF, and will win the conference if they win out.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State clinched the title
ACC Coastal: All of the leaders lost this week except Georgia Tech, who now leads. They have finished conference play, and Duke holds the tiebreaker, so Duke can win by winning out. If Duke loses again, Georgia Tech wins the division.
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins the division with another victory or a Michigan State loss
Big Ten West: Wisconsin holds the lead and their two remaining games are against the other contenders. If they win out, they win. Nebraska would need Wisconsin to lose twice, so that's not happening. Iowa or Minnesota could win by beating Wisconsin and winning their other game.
Big XII: TCU has a half-game lead over Baylor and Kansas State and has the easiest schedule remaining. However, Baylor beat them earlier. If Baylor wins out (which includes the season ending bout against Kansas State), they win the title.
Conference USA East: Marshall has clinched
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech leads by two. They clinch with one more win.
MAC East: Bowling Green leads by two and holds the tiebreaker over Ohio. Only UMass has a remote chance. Bowling Green clinches with another win or a UMass loss.
MAC West: It's a three-way battle among Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Toledo. Toledo holds the tiebreaker over Western Michigan, so even if the Broncos win out (which would include the season-ending game against Northern Illinois) and the Rockets do as well, Toledo wins. Toledo faces Bowling Green this week, however. Northern Illinois has Ohio before Western Michigan, so the Broncos might have the best chance to win out.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise can still clinch by winning out. If Utah State beats them but Colorado State wins out, the Rams win. Utah State needs the Rams to lose one and then beat Boise.
Mountain West West: With losses by all three of the division leaders, this division just got really messy, as now FIVE teams are mathematically eligible for the title.
Pac-12 North: Oregon already won
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead, but nearly the whole division still has a shot
SEC East: It's between Georgia and Missouri. Missouri currently leads, so if they win out they grab the title. Georgia is done with conference play and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so a Tiger loss hands the division title to Georgia.
SEC West: Alabama clinches with another win. Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would need to win out and hope the Tide lost a game.
Sun Belt: Since the Ragin Cajuns play one more conference game, they win by beating their remaining two opponents. If they lose a game, Georgia Southern captures the crown.
Tues Nov 18
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio Bobcats: A Huskies win here guarantees that next week's bout against Western Michigan would be played for the division title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Wed Nov 19
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: This is a vital game for both teams. Bowling Green clinches their division with a win while Toledo loses any chance at theirs with a loss. Bowling Green is the stronger team, but Toledo can be tenacious, and they know their season is on the line with this game. I expect a close and hard-fought battle. BOWLING GREEN by six
Thurs Nov 20
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has been a pesky opponent sometimes, but Kansas State seems pretty solid. They had an extra week to prepare for this game, so I expect the Wildcats to come out swinging. KANSAS STATE by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #17 Duke Blue Devils: Duke knows they need to win out in order to win the division. That's incredible incentive. I think Duke will win, but I almost hope they don't win the division. Florida State knows how to beat them, but Georgia Tech might have a tough enough defense to prevent another Seminole comeback, knocking off the defending National Champions and sending Ohio State into the playoffs. DUKE by 13
Fri Nov 21
Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs: Air Force can't win their division, but they are the stronger team here, and should knock San Diego out of their divisional race. AIR FORCE by 13
Sat Nov 22
Top 25:
Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: No contest. BAMA by lots
Boston College Eagles at #2 Florida State Seminoles: BC can be tough, so the Seminoles might find themselves behind at halftime again, but the Eagles won't be able to stop another Seminole comeback. FLORIDA STATE by 16
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Indiana hasn't won a conference game all season. This won't be the exception. OHIO STATE by 34
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #4 Baylor Bears: Oklahoma State is a threat, but not a serious one. Baylor is bolstered by the near-TCU loss last week, and therefore play with spirit and energy. BAYLOR by 24
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Mississippi State Bulldogs: Easy win for the Bulldogs as Vandy searches (unsuccessfully) for their first conference win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 26
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (FCS) at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The SEC ranked teams play a bunch of patsies this week. GEORGIA by lots
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While I don't think Melvin Gordon will come close to setting another NCAA record for rushing, the Badgers should be able to run well against the Hawkeyes. WISCONSIN by 23
#9 Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks finally got their first SEC win last week after a few near misses. Are they ready for a letdown? Ole Miss took the week off, so they are refereshed. So long as they aren't looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, they should win. OLE MISS by 17
Colorado Buffaloes at #10 Oregon Ducks: Easy win for the Ducks. OREGON by 33
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Rutgers got their second Big Ten last week, but it was against lowly Indiana. They won't get their third one this week. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
#12 Marshall Thundering Herd at UAB Blazers: Will Marshall rest their guys since they've already clinched their division and they have no hope at the playoffs? I don't think so, because they'd love to argue why they were omitted despite an unbeaten record. They may play backups once they have a comfortable lead, though. MARSHALL by 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #13 Nebraska Cornhuksers: Nebraska needs a tremendous win to wash away the stink of the Wisconsin debacle. Minnesota might be a tough opponent, though, so they may not have the great win they hope for. NEBRASKA by six
Kansas Jayhawks at #15 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas may have exhausted themselves against TCU. OKLAHOMA by 23
#18 Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee blew away Kentucky, but Missouri won't be as easy. Missouri is playing for a chance to play Alabama in the SEC Championship (is that an honor or a punishment? I'm not sure), so they will play hard. MISSOURI by 17
Washington State Cougars at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils want to bounce back from the comeback loss at Corvallis, and beating up on weak Washington State will probably do that. ARIZONA STATE by 24
Samford Bulldogs (FCS) at #20 Auburn Tigers: Auburn has lost two in a row, but that streak stops here. AUBURN by lots
#21 Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes: The Utes can be dangerous, so the Wildcats should not take them for granted. Arizona barely escaped with a late field goal last week; they can't expect to do that again. The Wildcats should win, but watch for the upset. ARIZONA by four
New Mexico Lobos at #23 Colorado State Rams: The Rams are well rested and ready to skin the Lobos. COLORADO STATE by 23
Louisville Cardinals at #25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the last couple of weeks, I'm not sure picking against the Irish could be considered an upset. LOUISVILLE by six
Big Ten:
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines: How tough is Michigan's season? How about the fact that I'm picking a conference rookie to beat them? MARYLAND by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers: If Northwestern can prevent a letdown after their amazing comeback against Notre Dame, they should win this one. NORTHWESTERN by eleven
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Penn State should win, but their play has been inconsistent this season. If their offense falters, the Illini offense is good enough to outscore them. PENN STATE by eight
Other Games of Interest:
Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates have an outside chance at the conference title, but I'm not sure they're counting on it. Tulane won't be a tough opponent, though, so their slim chances will remain. EAST CAROLINA by 13
South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers: UConn is nearly a guaranteed win, so Memphis knows a win here basically clinches the conference title. That's incentive enough. MEMPHIS by 20
Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't that much of a threat, although they are having a decent year (by their standards). BOISE STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: #24 USC Trojans at #22 UCLA Bruins: This crosstown rival is always intense, and UCLA has the advantage of an extra week to prepare. However, QB Brett Huntley has been inconsistent this season, and USC has been a strong opponent. I like the chances of an upset, although UCLA could win. USC by four
ACC Atlantic: Florida State clinched the title
ACC Coastal: All of the leaders lost this week except Georgia Tech, who now leads. They have finished conference play, and Duke holds the tiebreaker, so Duke can win by winning out. If Duke loses again, Georgia Tech wins the division.
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins the division with another victory or a Michigan State loss
Big Ten West: Wisconsin holds the lead and their two remaining games are against the other contenders. If they win out, they win. Nebraska would need Wisconsin to lose twice, so that's not happening. Iowa or Minnesota could win by beating Wisconsin and winning their other game.
Big XII: TCU has a half-game lead over Baylor and Kansas State and has the easiest schedule remaining. However, Baylor beat them earlier. If Baylor wins out (which includes the season ending bout against Kansas State), they win the title.
Conference USA East: Marshall has clinched
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech leads by two. They clinch with one more win.
MAC East: Bowling Green leads by two and holds the tiebreaker over Ohio. Only UMass has a remote chance. Bowling Green clinches with another win or a UMass loss.
MAC West: It's a three-way battle among Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Toledo. Toledo holds the tiebreaker over Western Michigan, so even if the Broncos win out (which would include the season-ending game against Northern Illinois) and the Rockets do as well, Toledo wins. Toledo faces Bowling Green this week, however. Northern Illinois has Ohio before Western Michigan, so the Broncos might have the best chance to win out.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise can still clinch by winning out. If Utah State beats them but Colorado State wins out, the Rams win. Utah State needs the Rams to lose one and then beat Boise.
Mountain West West: With losses by all three of the division leaders, this division just got really messy, as now FIVE teams are mathematically eligible for the title.
Pac-12 North: Oregon already won
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead, but nearly the whole division still has a shot
SEC East: It's between Georgia and Missouri. Missouri currently leads, so if they win out they grab the title. Georgia is done with conference play and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so a Tiger loss hands the division title to Georgia.
SEC West: Alabama clinches with another win. Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would need to win out and hope the Tide lost a game.
Sun Belt: Since the Ragin Cajuns play one more conference game, they win by beating their remaining two opponents. If they lose a game, Georgia Southern captures the crown.
Tues Nov 18
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio Bobcats: A Huskies win here guarantees that next week's bout against Western Michigan would be played for the division title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Wed Nov 19
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: This is a vital game for both teams. Bowling Green clinches their division with a win while Toledo loses any chance at theirs with a loss. Bowling Green is the stronger team, but Toledo can be tenacious, and they know their season is on the line with this game. I expect a close and hard-fought battle. BOWLING GREEN by six
Thurs Nov 20
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has been a pesky opponent sometimes, but Kansas State seems pretty solid. They had an extra week to prepare for this game, so I expect the Wildcats to come out swinging. KANSAS STATE by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #17 Duke Blue Devils: Duke knows they need to win out in order to win the division. That's incredible incentive. I think Duke will win, but I almost hope they don't win the division. Florida State knows how to beat them, but Georgia Tech might have a tough enough defense to prevent another Seminole comeback, knocking off the defending National Champions and sending Ohio State into the playoffs. DUKE by 13
Fri Nov 21
Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs: Air Force can't win their division, but they are the stronger team here, and should knock San Diego out of their divisional race. AIR FORCE by 13
Sat Nov 22
Top 25:
Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: No contest. BAMA by lots
Boston College Eagles at #2 Florida State Seminoles: BC can be tough, so the Seminoles might find themselves behind at halftime again, but the Eagles won't be able to stop another Seminole comeback. FLORIDA STATE by 16
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Indiana hasn't won a conference game all season. This won't be the exception. OHIO STATE by 34
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #4 Baylor Bears: Oklahoma State is a threat, but not a serious one. Baylor is bolstered by the near-TCU loss last week, and therefore play with spirit and energy. BAYLOR by 24
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Mississippi State Bulldogs: Easy win for the Bulldogs as Vandy searches (unsuccessfully) for their first conference win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 26
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (FCS) at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The SEC ranked teams play a bunch of patsies this week. GEORGIA by lots
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While I don't think Melvin Gordon will come close to setting another NCAA record for rushing, the Badgers should be able to run well against the Hawkeyes. WISCONSIN by 23
#9 Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks finally got their first SEC win last week after a few near misses. Are they ready for a letdown? Ole Miss took the week off, so they are refereshed. So long as they aren't looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, they should win. OLE MISS by 17
Colorado Buffaloes at #10 Oregon Ducks: Easy win for the Ducks. OREGON by 33
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Rutgers got their second Big Ten last week, but it was against lowly Indiana. They won't get their third one this week. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
#12 Marshall Thundering Herd at UAB Blazers: Will Marshall rest their guys since they've already clinched their division and they have no hope at the playoffs? I don't think so, because they'd love to argue why they were omitted despite an unbeaten record. They may play backups once they have a comfortable lead, though. MARSHALL by 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #13 Nebraska Cornhuksers: Nebraska needs a tremendous win to wash away the stink of the Wisconsin debacle. Minnesota might be a tough opponent, though, so they may not have the great win they hope for. NEBRASKA by six
Kansas Jayhawks at #15 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas may have exhausted themselves against TCU. OKLAHOMA by 23
#18 Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee blew away Kentucky, but Missouri won't be as easy. Missouri is playing for a chance to play Alabama in the SEC Championship (is that an honor or a punishment? I'm not sure), so they will play hard. MISSOURI by 17
Washington State Cougars at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils want to bounce back from the comeback loss at Corvallis, and beating up on weak Washington State will probably do that. ARIZONA STATE by 24
Samford Bulldogs (FCS) at #20 Auburn Tigers: Auburn has lost two in a row, but that streak stops here. AUBURN by lots
#21 Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes: The Utes can be dangerous, so the Wildcats should not take them for granted. Arizona barely escaped with a late field goal last week; they can't expect to do that again. The Wildcats should win, but watch for the upset. ARIZONA by four
New Mexico Lobos at #23 Colorado State Rams: The Rams are well rested and ready to skin the Lobos. COLORADO STATE by 23
Louisville Cardinals at #25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the last couple of weeks, I'm not sure picking against the Irish could be considered an upset. LOUISVILLE by six
Big Ten:
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines: How tough is Michigan's season? How about the fact that I'm picking a conference rookie to beat them? MARYLAND by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers: If Northwestern can prevent a letdown after their amazing comeback against Notre Dame, they should win this one. NORTHWESTERN by eleven
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Penn State should win, but their play has been inconsistent this season. If their offense falters, the Illini offense is good enough to outscore them. PENN STATE by eight
Other Games of Interest:
Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates have an outside chance at the conference title, but I'm not sure they're counting on it. Tulane won't be a tough opponent, though, so their slim chances will remain. EAST CAROLINA by 13
South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers: UConn is nearly a guaranteed win, so Memphis knows a win here basically clinches the conference title. That's incentive enough. MEMPHIS by 20
Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't that much of a threat, although they are having a decent year (by their standards). BOISE STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: #24 USC Trojans at #22 UCLA Bruins: This crosstown rival is always intense, and UCLA has the advantage of an extra week to prepare. However, QB Brett Huntley has been inconsistent this season, and USC has been a strong opponent. I like the chances of an upset, although UCLA could win. USC by four
NCAA 2014 Week 12 results and Top 25
Lots of upsets and surprising results, especially among the ranked teams. Duke was defeated by Virginia Tech, bolstering Ohio State's case. Kansas nearly upset TCU, harming their playoff considerations. Northwestern upset Notre Dame, nearly knocked them from the Top 25. Wisconsin demolished Nebraska on a record-setting performance, bolstering Wisconsin's bid for a strong bowl. Georgia completely dominated Auburn, helping Georgia's case for a two-loss team in the playoffs and removing Auburn from playoff contention. Lastly, Arizona State suffered their second loss, thanks to Oregon State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-1) [2] : Excellent game against Mississippi State. They deserve the top
2. Florida State Seminoles (10-0) [3] : They may be the only unbeaten among the power conferences, but they will not be able to do these second half comebacks against a team with a strong defense. They won't repeat as champions.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [4] : Despite a snowstorm, the Buckeyes hold back a march by Minnesota
4. Baylor Bears (8-1) [5]
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-1) [1] : They remain in the Top 5 because they started coming back against Alabama, and because other ranked teams underperformed
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6] : Speaking of underperforming, how did Kansas score 30 points against them?
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) [10] : Clearly the best two-loss team
8. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) [11] : Although Wisconsin has a right to contend that as well
9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [8]
10. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [9]
11. Michigan State Spartans (8-2) [12]
12. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-0) [13] : Could reach Top Ten by the end of the season
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) [7]
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [25] : A leap this high so late in the season? That's a result of the upsets this week
15. Oklahoma Sooners (7-3) [19]
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [17]
17. Duke Blue Devils (8-2) [14]
18. Missouri Tigers (8-2) [21]
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) [16] : No longer battling with Oregon for the best team in Pac-12
20. Auburn Tigers (7-3) [15]
21. Arizona Wildcats (8-2) [23] : Lesson to coaches -- stop "icing" kickers
22. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [22]
23. Colorado State Rams (9-1) [24]
24. USC Trojans (7-3) [26]
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3) [18]
Dropped off: LSU Tigers [#20]
On the Edge: Air Force Falcons (8-2), Memphis Tigers (7-3), Boise State Broncos (8-2), Louisville Cardinals (7-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-4)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-1) [2] : Excellent game against Mississippi State. They deserve the top
2. Florida State Seminoles (10-0) [3] : They may be the only unbeaten among the power conferences, but they will not be able to do these second half comebacks against a team with a strong defense. They won't repeat as champions.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [4] : Despite a snowstorm, the Buckeyes hold back a march by Minnesota
4. Baylor Bears (8-1) [5]
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-1) [1] : They remain in the Top 5 because they started coming back against Alabama, and because other ranked teams underperformed
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6] : Speaking of underperforming, how did Kansas score 30 points against them?
7. Georgia Bulldogs (8-2) [10] : Clearly the best two-loss team
8. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) [11] : Although Wisconsin has a right to contend that as well
9. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [8]
10. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [9]
11. Michigan State Spartans (8-2) [12]
12. Marshall Thundering Herd (10-0) [13] : Could reach Top Ten by the end of the season
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2) [7]
14. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [25] : A leap this high so late in the season? That's a result of the upsets this week
15. Oklahoma Sooners (7-3) [19]
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [17]
17. Duke Blue Devils (8-2) [14]
18. Missouri Tigers (8-2) [21]
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) [16] : No longer battling with Oregon for the best team in Pac-12
20. Auburn Tigers (7-3) [15]
21. Arizona Wildcats (8-2) [23] : Lesson to coaches -- stop "icing" kickers
22. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [22]
23. Colorado State Rams (9-1) [24]
24. USC Trojans (7-3) [26]
25. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3) [18]
Dropped off: LSU Tigers [#20]
On the Edge: Air Force Falcons (8-2), Memphis Tigers (7-3), Boise State Broncos (8-2), Louisville Cardinals (7-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-4)
Thursday, November 13, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 11 picks
Thursday night: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Both teams are doing well and coming off close losses. Kyle Orton has looked good since replacing ineffective EJ Manuel, and Ryan Tannehill has posted excellent numbers. I like Miami's defense, and that might be the difference in this game. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Something has to give! While both teams stink outside the division, both teams are unbeaten against divisional opponents. Carolina is crumbling on both sides of the ball, while Atlanta still shows promise on offense, so I'll pick the Falcons. FALCONS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: The Saints lost to an overtime field goal last week, but this week it won't need to go to overtime. SAINTS, 27-20
Denver Broncos at St Louis Rams: QB Shaun Hill is healthy enough to return to the Rams line-up, but the bigger issue is slowing the Broncos offense. They won't be that successful. BRONCOS, 31-20
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: Both teams have good offenses and special teams, so the difference is offense. There the edge goes to Cleveland. BROWNS, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: I'm picking the upset here. With all of the negative attention poured onto the Bears this week, they will sharpen their game. Pity the Vikings, who are still getting used to having Teddy Bridgewater under center. BEARS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: Everyone has been complaining about the collapse of the Bears' defense, but the Giants' is nearly as bad. 49ERS, 27-23
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: The Seahawks begin the tough part of their schedule, and I bet they wish they had a better record than 6-3 to begin it. KC's offense may be conservative, but they don't have to be high-powered when they have one of the toughest defenses in the league. That was said about Seattle's last year, but they haven't played like it this year. CHIEFS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at Washington Redskins: The Bucs have one of the worst defenses in the league, especially against the run, so that plays right into RGIII's hands. REDSKINS, 23-20
Sunday late games:
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: This should be an interesting game. Everyone is wondering whether Drew Stanton can produce. He has shown himself capable in the other times he has filled in for Carson Palmer, so I don't question it. The strength of the Cardinals is their defense, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford doesn't always do well against tough defenses. CARDINALS, 23-17
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Raiders are looking for their first win of the season. That search will continue, as the Chargers should roll through the porous Raiders defense. CHARGERS, 24-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: Here's a fun game. Either team could really win. Mark Sanchez moved into Nick Foles' spot very well, but this offense can move no matter who is under center. Aaron Rodgers' back didn't seem to bother him at all against the Bears, but their defense wasn't rushing much. Against the Eagles, it will be another story. EAGLES, 27-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: The Patriots have had the upper hand against the Colts, both when Peyton led them and since Andrew Luck has taken over. While both offenses should move well, the Patriots should secure another win. PATS, 31-27
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are struggling, while the Steelers are pacing Cleveland for the division lead. The Steelers love national games like this one, so expect them to excel. STEELERS, 26-17
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Something has to give! While both teams stink outside the division, both teams are unbeaten against divisional opponents. Carolina is crumbling on both sides of the ball, while Atlanta still shows promise on offense, so I'll pick the Falcons. FALCONS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: The Saints lost to an overtime field goal last week, but this week it won't need to go to overtime. SAINTS, 27-20
Denver Broncos at St Louis Rams: QB Shaun Hill is healthy enough to return to the Rams line-up, but the bigger issue is slowing the Broncos offense. They won't be that successful. BRONCOS, 31-20
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: Both teams have good offenses and special teams, so the difference is offense. There the edge goes to Cleveland. BROWNS, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: I'm picking the upset here. With all of the negative attention poured onto the Bears this week, they will sharpen their game. Pity the Vikings, who are still getting used to having Teddy Bridgewater under center. BEARS, 27-23
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: Everyone has been complaining about the collapse of the Bears' defense, but the Giants' is nearly as bad. 49ERS, 27-23
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: The Seahawks begin the tough part of their schedule, and I bet they wish they had a better record than 6-3 to begin it. KC's offense may be conservative, but they don't have to be high-powered when they have one of the toughest defenses in the league. That was said about Seattle's last year, but they haven't played like it this year. CHIEFS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at Washington Redskins: The Bucs have one of the worst defenses in the league, especially against the run, so that plays right into RGIII's hands. REDSKINS, 23-20
Sunday late games:
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: This should be an interesting game. Everyone is wondering whether Drew Stanton can produce. He has shown himself capable in the other times he has filled in for Carson Palmer, so I don't question it. The strength of the Cardinals is their defense, and Detroit's Matthew Stafford doesn't always do well against tough defenses. CARDINALS, 23-17
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Raiders are looking for their first win of the season. That search will continue, as the Chargers should roll through the porous Raiders defense. CHARGERS, 24-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: Here's a fun game. Either team could really win. Mark Sanchez moved into Nick Foles' spot very well, but this offense can move no matter who is under center. Aaron Rodgers' back didn't seem to bother him at all against the Bears, but their defense wasn't rushing much. Against the Eagles, it will be another story. EAGLES, 27-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: The Patriots have had the upper hand against the Colts, both when Peyton led them and since Andrew Luck has taken over. While both offenses should move well, the Patriots should secure another win. PATS, 31-27
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are struggling, while the Steelers are pacing Cleveland for the division lead. The Steelers love national games like this one, so expect them to excel. STEELERS, 26-17
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 10 news and Power Rankings
Only one major takeaway this week -- the collapse of defenses. The Bears, Panthers, and Giants all allowed more than 35 points to their opponents. This isn't college football, folks -- this is not common. Furthermore, these are all teams that have been known for defenses. Who have some of the best defenses this year? Cleveland, Arizona, Kansas City, and Detroit. The balance of the defense is shifting.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-1) [1] : Carson goes down, and their defense just stiffens
2. New England Patriots (7-2) [2]
3. Denver Broncos (7-2) [3]
4. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) [4] : Slaughtered Carolina and made Cam Newton look pathetic
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [5]
6. Green Bay Packers (6-3) [12] : Manhandling the Bears, and scoring 42 points in the first half, move them up
7. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) [6] : Just squeaked past Buffalo
8. Detroit Lions (7-2) [8] : Hard time against Miami
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [10] : Crushed Tennessee
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [11] : Quality win, but it was against Jacksonville
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Still the only division without a losing record, and it'll be that way for at least two more weeks
2 (tie). AFC West [2] : Aside from Oakland, these teams are dangerous
2 (tie). NFC West [4] : Impressive wins by Seattle, San Fran, and Arizona boost this division
4. AFC East [2] : Pats had a bye and both the Bills and Dolphins lost close games. The Jets were the lone winner, believe it or not
5 (tie). NFC East [5] : The leaders have further separated themselves from the lower half
5 (tie). NFC North [6] : Records are closer, but the power difference between the top half and the bottom is one of the largest in the league
7. AFC South [7] : It still looks like Indy will be the only team with a winning record
8. NFC South [8] : The Saints fall back below .500, so no team has a winning record
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-1) [1] : Carson goes down, and their defense just stiffens
2. New England Patriots (7-2) [2]
3. Denver Broncos (7-2) [3]
4. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) [4] : Slaughtered Carolina and made Cam Newton look pathetic
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [5]
6. Green Bay Packers (6-3) [12] : Manhandling the Bears, and scoring 42 points in the first half, move them up
7. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) [6] : Just squeaked past Buffalo
8. Detroit Lions (7-2) [8] : Hard time against Miami
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [10] : Crushed Tennessee
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [11] : Quality win, but it was against Jacksonville
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Still the only division without a losing record, and it'll be that way for at least two more weeks
2 (tie). AFC West [2] : Aside from Oakland, these teams are dangerous
2 (tie). NFC West [4] : Impressive wins by Seattle, San Fran, and Arizona boost this division
4. AFC East [2] : Pats had a bye and both the Bills and Dolphins lost close games. The Jets were the lone winner, believe it or not
5 (tie). NFC East [5] : The leaders have further separated themselves from the lower half
5 (tie). NFC North [6] : Records are closer, but the power difference between the top half and the bottom is one of the largest in the league
7. AFC South [7] : It still looks like Indy will be the only team with a winning record
8. NFC South [8] : The Saints fall back below .500, so no team has a winning record
Monday, November 10, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 12 title races and picks
This week I begin my analysis of the division and conference races.
American Athletic: Typical of this conference, going back to when they were the Big East, this is still a wide-open race. Memphis has a half-game lead, but East Carolina, Cincy, and UCF are right in the race, with Houston having an opening as well.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State is in the driver's seat, and holds the tiebreaker over Clemson. If Clemson loses to Georgia Tech or Florida State beats Miami, the Seminoles win the division
ACC Coastal: Duke holds the lead and the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, so two more wins by Duke clinches the division. Miami is the only team to beat Duke, so they have an outside chance at the title, but they'd have to win out and Duke lose all of their remaining games. I don't see that happening.
Big Ten East: Ohio State now has a two-game lead over anyone else, with their win over Michigan State. The Buckeyes would have to lose two games for the Spartans to advance.
Big Ten West: Nebraska leads the division and controls their destiny, as their three remaining games are against the other division contenders: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. If they win two out of three, they should win the division.
Conference USA East: Having beaten Middle Tennessee already, Marshall holds a two-game lead. One more win clinches the division for them.
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech holds a one-game lead over Rice. Their match-up on Nov 29th could determine the division winner, although Rice faces Marshall this week.
MAC East: Bowling Green clinches with one more victory.
MAC West: Toledo is in a tighter battle. They have a game lead over Northern Illinois, but play them this week. If the Huskies win, they lead the division, but additional loss would hurt. A Toledo win doesn't seal it for the Rockets, as Western Michigan is still there, but they have an easier time of it.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise holds the tiebreaker over Colorado State, so even if the Rams win out, the Broncos take the title if they win out. Boise has the tougher challenge, though, as they play both San Diego State and Utah State.
Mountain West West This is a tight race among Nevada, San Diego State, and Fresno State.
Pac-12 North: With their only loss to non-divisional Arizona, OREGON has won the division
Pac-12 South: This is a tighter race. Arizona State holds the lead, but they lost to second-place UCLA and must still play Arizona. Even USC has an outside chance.
SEC East: Missouri leads, but they lost to second-place Georgia. Missouri must win out, or Georgia can capture the title.
SEC West: Mississippi State leads, but they have the toughest schedule remaining, facing both Alabama and Ole Miss. The Tide can be in the driver's seat if they unseat the Bulldogs, but their loss to Ole Miss and upcoming Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn could knock them out. Ole Miss needs to win out, as does Auburn.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern is done with conference play and end with a perfect record. They didn't play Louisiana-Lafayette, who also sit with a perfect conference record. The Ragin Cajuns must win their two remaining conference games and hope Navy beats Georgia Southern to stand a chance.
Tues Nov 11
Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies: Potentially the battle for the division, Toledo is in good shape with a win. The Rockets are a strong team, but the Huskies have tools, too. This is likely to be a close game, so I'll favor the home team. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by four
Wed Nov 12
Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons: The other division title contender clinches with a win. They'll get it here. BOWLING GREEN by 23
Thurs Nov 13
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats: Consider this the battle for American Athletic runner-up, as the winner will trail Memphis by half a game and the loser is basically out of the race. That makes this an exciting and close game. Close games often hinge on strong defensive play, and that gives East Carolina the edge. EAST CAROLINA by three
Fri Nov 14
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UCF Golden Knights: The "shower of gold" goes to the Knights, who need the win to keep pace with Memphis and the winner of Thursday's game. UCF by 20
Sat Nov 15
Top 25:
#3 Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes love to play spoiler. If the Seminoles continue their trend of trailing at the half and coming back in the second half, Miami's defense may give them a problem. The back-biting being exhibited by some of the Seminoles players don't help them either. I'll pick Florida State, but watch for the potential upset. FLORIDA STATE by six
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers will fall from division contention after the Buckeyes trounce them. Urban Meyer will keep them from experiencing a post-Spartan letdown. OHIO STATE by 18
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks: With Baylor taking a bye, TCU has a chance to get a half-game lead in the Big XII. TCU by 34
#7 Nebraska Cornhuskers at#11 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have been great lately, but their recent tendency to fold in tough games makes me question if they can win this one. Nebraska has also been playing more consistently, so I like their chances. Wisconsin could pull this one out, though. NEBRASKA by five
#15 Auburn Tigers at #10 Georgia Bulldogs: The Tigers have something to prove after a mistake-riddled loss to A&M, but it can be tough to win between the hedges, and Georgia has a strong offense. GEORGIA by four
#12 Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: The Spartans are basically out of the title race, but they still want a shot at a prominent bowl. They will knock down Maryland. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Rice Owls at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: This win clinches the title for Marshall AND for Louisiana Tech, as Rice is the other contender for THAT division. MARSHALL by 24
Virginia Tech Hokies at #14 Duke Blue Devils: The Hokies are the only team to have beaten Ohio State this year, but they have not been able to build on that upset. They sit in the basement of the Coastal division, so this should be a cakewalk for Duke. DUKE by 21
#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers usually produce one home upset each season, and they haven't done that yet. After a shocking loss to Washington State last week, they have something to prove. Could this be the game? Maybe, but I'll let it be an upset if so. ARIZONA STATE by nine
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After committing lots of turnovers against Arizona State, you know the Irish want to play a cleaner game. They'd better, because Northwestern will exploit opponent's mistakes. NOTRE DAME by 17
#19 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns: Texas is beginning to find themselves, but I don't think the rebuilt Horns are quite ready for an opponent as strong as the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 20
#20 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas can give teams trouble, but they can't close games. LSU by nine
#21 Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Watch out for them Aggies! QB Kyle Allen wants to make everyone forget about Kenny Hill, and this team is fully backing him. Missouri had an extra week to prepare, though, and they are no slough in the offensive department, either. MISSOURI by ten
Washington Huskies at #23 Arizona Wildcats: Washington was strong earlier in the season, but they are fading. Arizona wants to keep winning so that a defeat of the Sun Devils might give them a division title. ARIZONA by 17
Clemson Tigers at #25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Clemson needs a win to continue to challenge Florida State for the division, while Georgia Tech needs the win to keep pace with Duke. Both have title aspirations, and both know a loss will expire them. Both have great tools, but I have to give a slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, who have really been strong recently. GEORGIA TECH by eight
Big Ten:
Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State should win this one, but they have messed up at critical times this season. I'll pick them, but watch out for an upset. PENN STATE by 13
Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini: As much as I would love the upset, my Illini just lack power this season. Iowa also needs to wash away the stink of that horrible loss to Minnesota. IOWA by 24
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Indiana is yet to win a conference game. This might be their best shot, but Rutgers has shown enough power against teams like Ohio State that they should win. RUTGERS by 13
Other Games of Interest:
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons: Nevada leads the West division, but this game will demonstrate the difference in strength between the Mountain and West divisions. AIR FORCE by eight
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave: Memphis is playing for a conference title, while Tulane can't seem to generate a winning record. MEMPHIS by 23
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos: Another Mountain v West division match-up, and this one will further expose the talent gap between the two divisions. BOISE STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: We get a contest of #1 v #2 early this year, and it should be a doozy! Could Alabama lose to BOTH teams from Mississippi this season? The Bulldogs are unbeaten, thanks in large part to the arm of QB Dak Prescott. However, it can be tough to beat Alabama at home, and the Tide have been sharpening their game since their 13-10 loss at Ole Miss. The Bulldogs played a FCS team as a warm-up to this game; not good enough preparation. ALABAMA wins the upset by four
American Athletic: Typical of this conference, going back to when they were the Big East, this is still a wide-open race. Memphis has a half-game lead, but East Carolina, Cincy, and UCF are right in the race, with Houston having an opening as well.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State is in the driver's seat, and holds the tiebreaker over Clemson. If Clemson loses to Georgia Tech or Florida State beats Miami, the Seminoles win the division
ACC Coastal: Duke holds the lead and the tiebreaker over Georgia Tech, so two more wins by Duke clinches the division. Miami is the only team to beat Duke, so they have an outside chance at the title, but they'd have to win out and Duke lose all of their remaining games. I don't see that happening.
Big Ten East: Ohio State now has a two-game lead over anyone else, with their win over Michigan State. The Buckeyes would have to lose two games for the Spartans to advance.
Big Ten West: Nebraska leads the division and controls their destiny, as their three remaining games are against the other division contenders: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. If they win two out of three, they should win the division.
Conference USA East: Having beaten Middle Tennessee already, Marshall holds a two-game lead. One more win clinches the division for them.
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech holds a one-game lead over Rice. Their match-up on Nov 29th could determine the division winner, although Rice faces Marshall this week.
MAC East: Bowling Green clinches with one more victory.
MAC West: Toledo is in a tighter battle. They have a game lead over Northern Illinois, but play them this week. If the Huskies win, they lead the division, but additional loss would hurt. A Toledo win doesn't seal it for the Rockets, as Western Michigan is still there, but they have an easier time of it.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise holds the tiebreaker over Colorado State, so even if the Rams win out, the Broncos take the title if they win out. Boise has the tougher challenge, though, as they play both San Diego State and Utah State.
Mountain West West This is a tight race among Nevada, San Diego State, and Fresno State.
Pac-12 North: With their only loss to non-divisional Arizona, OREGON has won the division
Pac-12 South: This is a tighter race. Arizona State holds the lead, but they lost to second-place UCLA and must still play Arizona. Even USC has an outside chance.
SEC East: Missouri leads, but they lost to second-place Georgia. Missouri must win out, or Georgia can capture the title.
SEC West: Mississippi State leads, but they have the toughest schedule remaining, facing both Alabama and Ole Miss. The Tide can be in the driver's seat if they unseat the Bulldogs, but their loss to Ole Miss and upcoming Iron Bowl matchup against Auburn could knock them out. Ole Miss needs to win out, as does Auburn.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern is done with conference play and end with a perfect record. They didn't play Louisiana-Lafayette, who also sit with a perfect conference record. The Ragin Cajuns must win their two remaining conference games and hope Navy beats Georgia Southern to stand a chance.
Tues Nov 11
Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies: Potentially the battle for the division, Toledo is in good shape with a win. The Rockets are a strong team, but the Huskies have tools, too. This is likely to be a close game, so I'll favor the home team. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by four
Wed Nov 12
Kent State Golden Flashes at Bowling Green Falcons: The other division title contender clinches with a win. They'll get it here. BOWLING GREEN by 23
Thurs Nov 13
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats: Consider this the battle for American Athletic runner-up, as the winner will trail Memphis by half a game and the loser is basically out of the race. That makes this an exciting and close game. Close games often hinge on strong defensive play, and that gives East Carolina the edge. EAST CAROLINA by three
Fri Nov 14
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UCF Golden Knights: The "shower of gold" goes to the Knights, who need the win to keep pace with Memphis and the winner of Thursday's game. UCF by 20
Sat Nov 15
Top 25:
#3 Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes love to play spoiler. If the Seminoles continue their trend of trailing at the half and coming back in the second half, Miami's defense may give them a problem. The back-biting being exhibited by some of the Seminoles players don't help them either. I'll pick Florida State, but watch for the potential upset. FLORIDA STATE by six
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers will fall from division contention after the Buckeyes trounce them. Urban Meyer will keep them from experiencing a post-Spartan letdown. OHIO STATE by 18
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks: With Baylor taking a bye, TCU has a chance to get a half-game lead in the Big XII. TCU by 34
#7 Nebraska Cornhuskers at#11 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have been great lately, but their recent tendency to fold in tough games makes me question if they can win this one. Nebraska has also been playing more consistently, so I like their chances. Wisconsin could pull this one out, though. NEBRASKA by five
#15 Auburn Tigers at #10 Georgia Bulldogs: The Tigers have something to prove after a mistake-riddled loss to A&M, but it can be tough to win between the hedges, and Georgia has a strong offense. GEORGIA by four
#12 Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins: The Spartans are basically out of the title race, but they still want a shot at a prominent bowl. They will knock down Maryland. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Rice Owls at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: This win clinches the title for Marshall AND for Louisiana Tech, as Rice is the other contender for THAT division. MARSHALL by 24
Virginia Tech Hokies at #14 Duke Blue Devils: The Hokies are the only team to have beaten Ohio State this year, but they have not been able to build on that upset. They sit in the basement of the Coastal division, so this should be a cakewalk for Duke. DUKE by 21
#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers usually produce one home upset each season, and they haven't done that yet. After a shocking loss to Washington State last week, they have something to prove. Could this be the game? Maybe, but I'll let it be an upset if so. ARIZONA STATE by nine
Northwestern Wildcats at #18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After committing lots of turnovers against Arizona State, you know the Irish want to play a cleaner game. They'd better, because Northwestern will exploit opponent's mistakes. NOTRE DAME by 17
#19 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns: Texas is beginning to find themselves, but I don't think the rebuilt Horns are quite ready for an opponent as strong as the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 20
#20 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas can give teams trouble, but they can't close games. LSU by nine
#21 Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Watch out for them Aggies! QB Kyle Allen wants to make everyone forget about Kenny Hill, and this team is fully backing him. Missouri had an extra week to prepare, though, and they are no slough in the offensive department, either. MISSOURI by ten
Washington Huskies at #23 Arizona Wildcats: Washington was strong earlier in the season, but they are fading. Arizona wants to keep winning so that a defeat of the Sun Devils might give them a division title. ARIZONA by 17
Clemson Tigers at #25 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Clemson needs a win to continue to challenge Florida State for the division, while Georgia Tech needs the win to keep pace with Duke. Both have title aspirations, and both know a loss will expire them. Both have great tools, but I have to give a slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, who have really been strong recently. GEORGIA TECH by eight
Big Ten:
Temple Owls at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State should win this one, but they have messed up at critical times this season. I'll pick them, but watch out for an upset. PENN STATE by 13
Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini: As much as I would love the upset, my Illini just lack power this season. Iowa also needs to wash away the stink of that horrible loss to Minnesota. IOWA by 24
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Indiana is yet to win a conference game. This might be their best shot, but Rutgers has shown enough power against teams like Ohio State that they should win. RUTGERS by 13
Other Games of Interest:
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons: Nevada leads the West division, but this game will demonstrate the difference in strength between the Mountain and West divisions. AIR FORCE by eight
Memphis Tigers at Tulane Green Wave: Memphis is playing for a conference title, while Tulane can't seem to generate a winning record. MEMPHIS by 23
San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos: Another Mountain v West division match-up, and this one will further expose the talent gap between the two divisions. BOISE STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: We get a contest of #1 v #2 early this year, and it should be a doozy! Could Alabama lose to BOTH teams from Mississippi this season? The Bulldogs are unbeaten, thanks in large part to the arm of QB Dak Prescott. However, it can be tough to beat Alabama at home, and the Tide have been sharpening their game since their 13-10 loss at Ole Miss. The Bulldogs played a FCS team as a warm-up to this game; not good enough preparation. ALABAMA wins the upset by four
NCAA 2014 Week 11 results and Top 25
There were some interesting games! The national analysts were lamenting on how many ranked teams were getting beaten, but I foresaw some of those. Auburn's loss took me by surprise, though. It appears A&M may not care if Kenny Hill returns after this two-game suspension for vandalism. I was amazed at how easily Arizona State beat Notre Dame. I thought the West Virginia - Texas game would be close, the result surprised me.
The other upsets were not among ranked teams. Minnesota's dominating victory over Iowa was a shocker, as was Kansas' win. I had no idea Oregon State would lose at home against Washington State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (9-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) [2] : Strong victory leading into their face-off with Mississippi State
3. Florida State Seminoles (9-0) [4] : The Seminoles still don't look like a championship-caliber team
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [5] : They won the battle of the Big Ten to take a strong lead for the title game
5. Baylor Bears (8-1) [9] : Wiped out Oklahoma to establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12
6. TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) [10] : Dominated Kansas State to knock the Wildcats off the top of the conference
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [6]
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [7] : They shut out a pathetic FCS team. Big deal.
9. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [11] : Great win to take the lead in the Pac-12
10. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) [14] : Doubled up on Kentucky to remain competitive in the SEC East
11. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [19] : Huge game and huge leap due to some collapse of teams in the teens
12. Michigan State Spartans (7-2) [8] : Allowed Ohio State to score more points against them than even Oregon
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-0) [17]
14. Duke Blue Devils (8-1) [18] : Remains the leader of the Coastal, setting up a rematch against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game
15. Auburn Tigers (7-2) [3] : Losing to A&M, playing with their backup QB, tarnishes the Tigers
16. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) [20] : Huge win over Notre Dame
17. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [16] : They may have lost a chance to win the Big 12
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) [12] : The Irish lost a bid for the playoffs
19. Oklahoma Sooners (6-3) [13] : Huge loss to Baylor
20. LSU Tigers (7-3) [15] : Although dangerous, they have no chance at the SEC Championship Game
21. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [21]
22. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [22] : Good game against Washington
23. Arizona Wildcats (7-2) [23]
24. Colorado State Rams (9-1) [24]
25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-2) [26]
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#25]
On the Edge: Clemson Tigers (7-2), East Carolina Pirates (6-2), Boise State Broncos (7-2), Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-2), Louisville Cardinals (7-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-3), Air Force Falcons (7-2), Memphis Tigers (6-3)
The other upsets were not among ranked teams. Minnesota's dominating victory over Iowa was a shocker, as was Kansas' win. I had no idea Oregon State would lose at home against Washington State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (9-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) [2] : Strong victory leading into their face-off with Mississippi State
3. Florida State Seminoles (9-0) [4] : The Seminoles still don't look like a championship-caliber team
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [5] : They won the battle of the Big Ten to take a strong lead for the title game
5. Baylor Bears (8-1) [9] : Wiped out Oklahoma to establish themselves as the team to beat in the Big 12
6. TCU Horned Frogs (8-1) [10] : Dominated Kansas State to knock the Wildcats off the top of the conference
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [6]
8. Ole Miss Rebels (8-2) [7] : They shut out a pathetic FCS team. Big deal.
9. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [11] : Great win to take the lead in the Pac-12
10. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) [14] : Doubled up on Kentucky to remain competitive in the SEC East
11. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [19] : Huge game and huge leap due to some collapse of teams in the teens
12. Michigan State Spartans (7-2) [8] : Allowed Ohio State to score more points against them than even Oregon
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (9-0) [17]
14. Duke Blue Devils (8-1) [18] : Remains the leader of the Coastal, setting up a rematch against Florida State in the ACC Championship Game
15. Auburn Tigers (7-2) [3] : Losing to A&M, playing with their backup QB, tarnishes the Tigers
16. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-1) [20] : Huge win over Notre Dame
17. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2) [16] : They may have lost a chance to win the Big 12
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) [12] : The Irish lost a bid for the playoffs
19. Oklahoma Sooners (6-3) [13] : Huge loss to Baylor
20. LSU Tigers (7-3) [15] : Although dangerous, they have no chance at the SEC Championship Game
21. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [21]
22. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [22] : Good game against Washington
23. Arizona Wildcats (7-2) [23]
24. Colorado State Rams (9-1) [24]
25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-2) [26]
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#25]
On the Edge: Clemson Tigers (7-2), East Carolina Pirates (6-2), Boise State Broncos (7-2), Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-2), Louisville Cardinals (7-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-3), Air Force Falcons (7-2), Memphis Tigers (6-3)
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 10 picks
I was concerned while picking the Sunday early games, as so many road teams were favored, but the rest of the week redeemed the week.
Thursday night: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns are statistically better, but they struggle against divisional opponents. I favor the Bengals, but if the Browns can get out of their heads, they might upset Cincy. BENGALS, 27-23
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: Neither team looks good right now, but the Falcons certainly have the offense to survive this battle for the division cellar. FALCONS, 28-17
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cowboys could rest Tony Romo to allow his back to heal, and they could still beat the Jags. Their defense is slipping, so the Jags could score more than expected, but the Cowboys should win easily. COWBOYS, 30-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: The Chiefs are rolling, but Kyle Orton has revitalized the Bills (4-1 as a starter). The Chiefs SHOULD win, but the Bills can be unpredictable. CHIEFS, 27-20
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: The Lions had a bye week to prepare and get healthier, so I like their chances. However, the Dolphins have been a tremendous team, with Ryan Tannehill posting great numbers. This could become an offensive shoot-out, with the last team running the game winning the game. LIONS, 31-27
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: This one is easy. STEELERS, 27-17
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints are on a roll, while the 49ers are imploding. There is locker room conflict among the players, and criticism is being leveled at coach Jim Harbaugh. The Saints will continue their improvement. SAINTS, 28-20
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens lost the division lead, and they want to remain in contention. That alone will inspire them, and playing the uninspiring Titans will help. RAVENS, 24-13
Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: The Broncos will bounce back from their loss to the Patriots, but their defense will give Oakland some opportunities. BRONCOS, 30-20
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: The Giants struggled with their offense early in the season, and now their defense is flailing. That should allow the Seahawks to win decisively, but they have not been impressive, and close wins have been their trend this season. SEAHAWKS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: The Rams have become a dangerous foe to NFC West opponents. Can they take that to the next level, and beat the league-leading Cardinals? With the Cardinals' defense, I question that, but you never know... CARDINALS, 27-16
Sunday night: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: The Pack had a bye, so hopefully Aaron Rodgers is healthy. If not, the Bears could triumph, as they have a great record on Sunday night. PACKERS, 28-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles may not start, but that probably doesn't matter against the loopy Panthers. All the Eagles have to do is take an early lead, forcing Cam Newton to believe he needs to make big plays to win. PRESTO! Panthers collapse. EAGLES, 30-16
Thursday night: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns are statistically better, but they struggle against divisional opponents. I favor the Bengals, but if the Browns can get out of their heads, they might upset Cincy. BENGALS, 27-23
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: Neither team looks good right now, but the Falcons certainly have the offense to survive this battle for the division cellar. FALCONS, 28-17
Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cowboys could rest Tony Romo to allow his back to heal, and they could still beat the Jags. Their defense is slipping, so the Jags could score more than expected, but the Cowboys should win easily. COWBOYS, 30-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: The Chiefs are rolling, but Kyle Orton has revitalized the Bills (4-1 as a starter). The Chiefs SHOULD win, but the Bills can be unpredictable. CHIEFS, 27-20
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: The Lions had a bye week to prepare and get healthier, so I like their chances. However, the Dolphins have been a tremendous team, with Ryan Tannehill posting great numbers. This could become an offensive shoot-out, with the last team running the game winning the game. LIONS, 31-27
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: This one is easy. STEELERS, 27-17
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints are on a roll, while the 49ers are imploding. There is locker room conflict among the players, and criticism is being leveled at coach Jim Harbaugh. The Saints will continue their improvement. SAINTS, 28-20
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens lost the division lead, and they want to remain in contention. That alone will inspire them, and playing the uninspiring Titans will help. RAVENS, 24-13
Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: The Broncos will bounce back from their loss to the Patriots, but their defense will give Oakland some opportunities. BRONCOS, 30-20
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: The Giants struggled with their offense early in the season, and now their defense is flailing. That should allow the Seahawks to win decisively, but they have not been impressive, and close wins have been their trend this season. SEAHAWKS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: The Rams have become a dangerous foe to NFC West opponents. Can they take that to the next level, and beat the league-leading Cardinals? With the Cardinals' defense, I question that, but you never know... CARDINALS, 27-16
Sunday night: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: The Pack had a bye, so hopefully Aaron Rodgers is healthy. If not, the Bears could triumph, as they have a great record on Sunday night. PACKERS, 28-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles may not start, but that probably doesn't matter against the loopy Panthers. All the Eagles have to do is take an early lead, forcing Cam Newton to believe he needs to make big plays to win. PRESTO! Panthers collapse. EAGLES, 30-16
NFL 2014 Week 9 news and Power Rankings
Week 9 Takeaways
1. The AFC v NFC imbalance is growing. The NFC has only three teams in the Top Ten, while the AFC has seven. Furthermore, the AFC has 11 teams with winning records while the NFC has only six. While the NFC has the team with the best record, the power seems to centralized in the AFC.
2. Dallas seems to have started their decline early. They have lost two in a row and have fallen from the Top Ten. They get Jacksonville this week, so they can reverse their losing streak, but we have to wonder how far the Cowboys can really go this season.
3. The Rams are a force in the NFC West! While they can't seem to do anything outside their division, they have beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in successive division match-ups. This week they face Arizona. Can they shock the league-leading Cardinals?
4. The Saints have the best momentum of any team. They have won three of their last four (and the loss was by a single point) after a poor start, and those three wins have been strong. They face the sputtering 49ers this week to gain a winning record, and face four teams with losing records to close out the season. The Saints seem playoff-bound, and may have the best momentum of any team entering the playoffs. That could propel them all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-1) [2] : The Cards become the team with the best record in the league, and Carson Palmer returns to the starting lineup. With the crushing defense they have, they could continue to roll
2. New England Patriots (7-2) [3] : Another dominant victory makes the Pats a fearsome foe. Most of the league is happy they have a bye this week
3. Denver Broncos (6-2) [1] : The Broncos lost, but they still have dominated most of their opponents. The Pats have frequently overwhelmed Peyton, so I don't think this week was a good indication of what they will do against other teams.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) [5] : If even a mediocre QB like Mark Sanchez can succeed in this offense, Chip Kelly definitely has developed a great scheme
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [8] : Another team with consecutive dominant victories
6. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) [11] : The AFC version of the Saints, they have shifted a poor beginning into a tremendous stretch
7. Miami Dolphins (5-3) [13] : Amazing shut-out of the dynamic San Diego offense! Has the "No Name" defense returned to Miami?
8. Detroit Lions (6-2) [7]
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) [14] : Perhaps the best team in the AFC North right now, they now lead the division
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) [6] : And here's the team who the Steelers knocked off the top of the division
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [2] : Though no overwhelmingly dominant team, overall this division has the best record. They have been the only division without a losing team for weeks
2.(tie). AFC West [1] : Three huge losses knocked this division down
2 (tie). AFC East [4] : Big wins by New England and Miami boost the division, despite a loss by the Jets
4. NFC West [4] : The 49ers are falling, but an uptick by the Rams and the cruising Cards keep the division afloat
5. NFC East [3] : Tough week, as Philly was the only winner
6. NFC North [6] : Mostly byes, although the Vikings spoiled RGIII's return to the Skins
7. AFC South [7] : The gap is so large, I don't see this division moving up, even as the Colts improve
8. NFC South [8] : The Saints are moving up, but the rest of the division languishes with losing records
1. The AFC v NFC imbalance is growing. The NFC has only three teams in the Top Ten, while the AFC has seven. Furthermore, the AFC has 11 teams with winning records while the NFC has only six. While the NFC has the team with the best record, the power seems to centralized in the AFC.
2. Dallas seems to have started their decline early. They have lost two in a row and have fallen from the Top Ten. They get Jacksonville this week, so they can reverse their losing streak, but we have to wonder how far the Cowboys can really go this season.
3. The Rams are a force in the NFC West! While they can't seem to do anything outside their division, they have beaten both Seattle and San Francisco in successive division match-ups. This week they face Arizona. Can they shock the league-leading Cardinals?
4. The Saints have the best momentum of any team. They have won three of their last four (and the loss was by a single point) after a poor start, and those three wins have been strong. They face the sputtering 49ers this week to gain a winning record, and face four teams with losing records to close out the season. The Saints seem playoff-bound, and may have the best momentum of any team entering the playoffs. That could propel them all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-1) [2] : The Cards become the team with the best record in the league, and Carson Palmer returns to the starting lineup. With the crushing defense they have, they could continue to roll
2. New England Patriots (7-2) [3] : Another dominant victory makes the Pats a fearsome foe. Most of the league is happy they have a bye this week
3. Denver Broncos (6-2) [1] : The Broncos lost, but they still have dominated most of their opponents. The Pats have frequently overwhelmed Peyton, so I don't think this week was a good indication of what they will do against other teams.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) [5] : If even a mediocre QB like Mark Sanchez can succeed in this offense, Chip Kelly definitely has developed a great scheme
5. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [8] : Another team with consecutive dominant victories
6. Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) [11] : The AFC version of the Saints, they have shifted a poor beginning into a tremendous stretch
7. Miami Dolphins (5-3) [13] : Amazing shut-out of the dynamic San Diego offense! Has the "No Name" defense returned to Miami?
8. Detroit Lions (6-2) [7]
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) [14] : Perhaps the best team in the AFC North right now, they now lead the division
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) [6] : And here's the team who the Steelers knocked off the top of the division
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [2] : Though no overwhelmingly dominant team, overall this division has the best record. They have been the only division without a losing team for weeks
2.(tie). AFC West [1] : Three huge losses knocked this division down
2 (tie). AFC East [4] : Big wins by New England and Miami boost the division, despite a loss by the Jets
4. NFC West [4] : The 49ers are falling, but an uptick by the Rams and the cruising Cards keep the division afloat
5. NFC East [3] : Tough week, as Philly was the only winner
6. NFC North [6] : Mostly byes, although the Vikings spoiled RGIII's return to the Skins
7. AFC South [7] : The gap is so large, I don't see this division moving up, even as the Colts improve
8. NFC South [8] : The Saints are moving up, but the rest of the division languishes with losing records
Sunday, November 2, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 11 picks
The season is winding down. In fact, next week I'll be looking at the division and conference races. This week is exciting enough, with four games pitting ranked teams.
Tues Nov 4
Bowling Green Falcons at Akron Zips: The MAC East division could be locked up with this game, as the division-leading Falcons face the second-place Zips. If Bowling Green wins, all they need to do is win one more game. BOWLING GREEN by 12
Toledo Rockets at Kent State Golden Flashes: The other MAC division leader has an easier game, but faces a tighter divisional race. This win will keep them on top, though. TOLEDO by 24
Wed Nov 5
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Broncos: The Huskies should win this game to remain close behind Toledo for the division lead. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 13
Thurs Nov 6
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake is looking for their first ACC win of the season. They should keep looking, as Clemson is dogging Florida State. The Tigers hope the less-than-inspired play by the Seminoles result in a loss, so they can creep into division contention. CLEMSON by 23
Fri Nov 7
Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls: These two are involved in the tight American Athletic title race. Temple was strong earlier in the season, but bounced back from a recent skid last week. Still, a Temple loss basically takes them out of the race. Memphis has been dominant in their recent victories, so I have to like their chances. MEMPHIS by 23
Utah State Aggies at Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys had an impressive win last week, but the Aggies have been a threat all season long. UTAH STATE by 17
Sat Nov 8
Top 25:
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (FCS) at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs get an easy game after barely escaping Arkansas. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 32
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #15 LSU Tigers: LSU had a bye week to continue celebrating their win over Ole Miss, but now Alabama comes into town. The Tide have sharpened their play since their loss to Ole Miss, and I expect them to demonstrate that to the Tigers. ALABAMA by 13
Texas A&M Aggies at #3 Auburn Tigers: Unless Auburn suffers a letdown after their victory over Ole Miss, they should put away the Aggies. AUBURN by 24
Virginia Cavaliers at #4 Florida State Seminoles: Virginia can be a tough opponent this year. They like to dominate early, but we've seen the Seminoles fight back from deficits. On the other hand, Florida State gets lackluster if they lead late in the third quarter. Virginia's best strategy might be to keep it close, and then pour it on in the fourth. I'm not sure they'll do that, so I'll pick Florida State to win yet another close game. FLORIDA STATE by six
Presbyterian Blue Hose (FCS) at #7 Ole Miss Rebels: Both Mississippi teams get easy FCS opponents. For Ole Miss, it's a chance to stop a two-game losing streak. OLE MISS by lots
#9 Baylor Bears at #13 Oklahoma Sooners: This could be a close game, which is not normal for Baylor. If they don't panic because they are not far in front, they should win. If they panic, they open the door for Oklahoma to engineer the upset. BAYLOR by six
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs had a wake-up call last week, which doesn't benefit K-State. TCU will practice harder and be better prepared for this game, and I'm not sure the Wildcats are as good as their record. This game will determine that. TCU by ten
#11 Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes: The Utes defense isn't strong enough to slow the Ducks sufficiently enough to win. OREGON by 20
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #20 Arizona State Sun Devils: Neither team has been outstanding in their victories. The Sun Devils are strong at home, but the Irish have a well-honed team; they have faced tougher opposition, and are better prepared for this game. NOTRE DAME by nine
#14 Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: Can the Bulldogs bounce back after getting shocked by Florida? Kentucky has been a stiff opponent this season. I'll pick Georgia to bounce back, but watch for an upset. GEORGIA by 11
#17 Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Easy win for Marshall, as the Eagles are grounded. MARSHALL by lots
#18 Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange: The Orange have battled hard in most of their games, but can't close them. Expect that again. DUKE by 8
#19 Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Nebraska had over 200 yards against Purdue without their best runner. Can Wisconsin top 250 yards? WISCONSIN by 27
#22 UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies: UCLA had a great game against Arizona, but Brett Hunley has been less than stellar this season. If he falter again, the Huskies could knock them off. UCLA by six
Colorado Buffaloes at #23 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats get to rebound from the aforementioned loss by slaughtering the Pac-12 doormat. ARIZONA by 31
Hawaii Warriors at #24 Colorado State Rams: Hawaii, as usual, struggles on the road. Facing the conference-leading Rams on the road is a losing proposition. COLORADO STATE by 20
Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are winless in conference play, while Penn State needs to bounce back from the shocker against Maryland. Good chance to do that. PENN STATE by 13
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Crucial battle in the West division, as the loser is likely out of the race. Minnesota started the season stronger, but lately Iowa has looked better. Minnesota had a bye week to stew about the loss to Illinois, so they'll be hungry. It'll be close, but I like what Iowa has been doing recently. IOWA by nine
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: Michigan has struggled this season, and the Wildcats had an extra week to work out their kinks and get themselves coordinated. I like the Wildcats for the upset. NORTHWESTERN by four
Other Games of Interest:
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolf Pack: After a great non-conference run, the Wolf Pack have collapsed in ACC play. The Yellow Jackets are knocking on the door of the Top 25, and a strong performance here will help boost them. GEORGIA TECH by 17
Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos: The Broncos should roll over the struggling Lobos. BOISE STATE by 20
Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Eagles This could be an interesting match-up. BC knows a loss here removes them from the division race, so they will battle. I think Louisville has better weapons, but the Eagles won't make it easy. LOUISVILLE by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #8 Michigan State Spartans: The Buckeyes have been blowing away opponents since their shocking opening weekend loss, but JT Barrett has struggled against stiff defenses. The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest defenses in the country, and so I have to pick the Spartans to spoil Ohio State's record-setting streak of regular season conference victories. MICHIGAN STATE by six
Tues Nov 4
Bowling Green Falcons at Akron Zips: The MAC East division could be locked up with this game, as the division-leading Falcons face the second-place Zips. If Bowling Green wins, all they need to do is win one more game. BOWLING GREEN by 12
Toledo Rockets at Kent State Golden Flashes: The other MAC division leader has an easier game, but faces a tighter divisional race. This win will keep them on top, though. TOLEDO by 24
Wed Nov 5
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Broncos: The Huskies should win this game to remain close behind Toledo for the division lead. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 13
Thurs Nov 6
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake is looking for their first ACC win of the season. They should keep looking, as Clemson is dogging Florida State. The Tigers hope the less-than-inspired play by the Seminoles result in a loss, so they can creep into division contention. CLEMSON by 23
Fri Nov 7
Memphis Tigers at Temple Owls: These two are involved in the tight American Athletic title race. Temple was strong earlier in the season, but bounced back from a recent skid last week. Still, a Temple loss basically takes them out of the race. Memphis has been dominant in their recent victories, so I have to like their chances. MEMPHIS by 23
Utah State Aggies at Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys had an impressive win last week, but the Aggies have been a threat all season long. UTAH STATE by 17
Sat Nov 8
Top 25:
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (FCS) at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs get an easy game after barely escaping Arkansas. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 32
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #15 LSU Tigers: LSU had a bye week to continue celebrating their win over Ole Miss, but now Alabama comes into town. The Tide have sharpened their play since their loss to Ole Miss, and I expect them to demonstrate that to the Tigers. ALABAMA by 13
Texas A&M Aggies at #3 Auburn Tigers: Unless Auburn suffers a letdown after their victory over Ole Miss, they should put away the Aggies. AUBURN by 24
Virginia Cavaliers at #4 Florida State Seminoles: Virginia can be a tough opponent this year. They like to dominate early, but we've seen the Seminoles fight back from deficits. On the other hand, Florida State gets lackluster if they lead late in the third quarter. Virginia's best strategy might be to keep it close, and then pour it on in the fourth. I'm not sure they'll do that, so I'll pick Florida State to win yet another close game. FLORIDA STATE by six
Presbyterian Blue Hose (FCS) at #7 Ole Miss Rebels: Both Mississippi teams get easy FCS opponents. For Ole Miss, it's a chance to stop a two-game losing streak. OLE MISS by lots
#9 Baylor Bears at #13 Oklahoma Sooners: This could be a close game, which is not normal for Baylor. If they don't panic because they are not far in front, they should win. If they panic, they open the door for Oklahoma to engineer the upset. BAYLOR by six
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs had a wake-up call last week, which doesn't benefit K-State. TCU will practice harder and be better prepared for this game, and I'm not sure the Wildcats are as good as their record. This game will determine that. TCU by ten
#11 Oregon Ducks at Utah Utes: The Utes defense isn't strong enough to slow the Ducks sufficiently enough to win. OREGON by 20
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #20 Arizona State Sun Devils: Neither team has been outstanding in their victories. The Sun Devils are strong at home, but the Irish have a well-honed team; they have faced tougher opposition, and are better prepared for this game. NOTRE DAME by nine
#14 Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: Can the Bulldogs bounce back after getting shocked by Florida? Kentucky has been a stiff opponent this season. I'll pick Georgia to bounce back, but watch for an upset. GEORGIA by 11
#17 Marshall Thundering Herd at Southern Miss Golden Eagles: Easy win for Marshall, as the Eagles are grounded. MARSHALL by lots
#18 Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse Orange: The Orange have battled hard in most of their games, but can't close them. Expect that again. DUKE by 8
#19 Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Nebraska had over 200 yards against Purdue without their best runner. Can Wisconsin top 250 yards? WISCONSIN by 27
#22 UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies: UCLA had a great game against Arizona, but Brett Hunley has been less than stellar this season. If he falter again, the Huskies could knock them off. UCLA by six
Colorado Buffaloes at #23 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats get to rebound from the aforementioned loss by slaughtering the Pac-12 doormat. ARIZONA by 31
Hawaii Warriors at #24 Colorado State Rams: Hawaii, as usual, struggles on the road. Facing the conference-leading Rams on the road is a losing proposition. COLORADO STATE by 20
Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are winless in conference play, while Penn State needs to bounce back from the shocker against Maryland. Good chance to do that. PENN STATE by 13
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Crucial battle in the West division, as the loser is likely out of the race. Minnesota started the season stronger, but lately Iowa has looked better. Minnesota had a bye week to stew about the loss to Illinois, so they'll be hungry. It'll be close, but I like what Iowa has been doing recently. IOWA by nine
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: Michigan has struggled this season, and the Wildcats had an extra week to work out their kinks and get themselves coordinated. I like the Wildcats for the upset. NORTHWESTERN by four
Other Games of Interest:
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolf Pack: After a great non-conference run, the Wolf Pack have collapsed in ACC play. The Yellow Jackets are knocking on the door of the Top 25, and a strong performance here will help boost them. GEORGIA TECH by 17
Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos: The Broncos should roll over the struggling Lobos. BOISE STATE by 20
Louisville Cardinals at Boston College Eagles This could be an interesting match-up. BC knows a loss here removes them from the division race, so they will battle. I think Louisville has better weapons, but the Eagles won't make it easy. LOUISVILLE by six
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #8 Michigan State Spartans: The Buckeyes have been blowing away opponents since their shocking opening weekend loss, but JT Barrett has struggled against stiff defenses. The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest defenses in the country, and so I have to pick the Spartans to spoil Ohio State's record-setting streak of regular season conference victories. MICHIGAN STATE by six
NCAA 2014 Week 10 results and Top 25
The week started fairly smoothly. In fact, I had a perfect record until Temple knocked off ranked East Carolina. Then Florida shocked Georgia. That night UCLA clobbered Arizona and Cal beat up on Oregon State. Some earlier surprises were the number of points scored by Auburn in their close win over Ole Miss. The Rebels had gone 16 consecutive games without giving up as many as 30 points, and Auburn scored 35. Texas' dominant victory over Texas Tech was also a shock.
Conference and division races are getting interesting. Next week I begin my analysis of that.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-0) [1] : They nearly lost it, but the Bulldogs remain unbeaten
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [2]
3. Auburn Tigers (7-1) [5] : Win over Ole Miss puts them in the running for the top spot
4. Florida State Seminoles (8-0) [9] : Another come-from-behind win, but at least they won. Staying unbeaten this season isn't easy
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [6] : They beat the tar out of my Illini
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [7] : They lost their best running back, but still rushed for over 200 yards
7. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) [3] : The defense fell apart this week, losing two in a row. Can the Rebs get back on track?
8. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [8]
9. Baylor Bears (7-1) [11]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (7-1) [10] : A tight one-point win barely keeps them in the Top Ten. They are fortunate there was such a large gap between the Top Ten and the rest of the rankings
11. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [13] : Slaughtered Stanford
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) [12] : Didn't wrap up this game until late in the fourth
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) [15]
14. Georgia Bulldogs (6-2) [4]
15. LSU Tigers (7-2) [14]
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) [19] : Gaining momentum in the Big XII
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-0) [17]
18. Duke Blue Devils (7-1) [18] : One game closer to returning to the ACC Championship Game
19. Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) [26] : Huge win in the rain at Rutgers
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-1) [24]
21. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [23] : Nice win over Kentucky
22. UCLA Bruins (7-2) [NR] : Bruins fought back into the rankings
23. Arizona Wildcats (6-2) [16] : Got knocked around by UCLA
24. Colorado State Rams (8-1) [NR] : The Mountain West finally breaks into the rankings!
25. USC Trojans (6-3) [25]
Dropped off: Utah Utes [#20], East Carolina Pirates [#21], Louisville Cardinals [#22]
On the Edge: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2), Clemson Tigers (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-3)
Conference and division races are getting interesting. Next week I begin my analysis of that.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-0) [1] : They nearly lost it, but the Bulldogs remain unbeaten
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [2]
3. Auburn Tigers (7-1) [5] : Win over Ole Miss puts them in the running for the top spot
4. Florida State Seminoles (8-0) [9] : Another come-from-behind win, but at least they won. Staying unbeaten this season isn't easy
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [6] : They beat the tar out of my Illini
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [7] : They lost their best running back, but still rushed for over 200 yards
7. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) [3] : The defense fell apart this week, losing two in a row. Can the Rebs get back on track?
8. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [8]
9. Baylor Bears (7-1) [11]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (7-1) [10] : A tight one-point win barely keeps them in the Top Ten. They are fortunate there was such a large gap between the Top Ten and the rest of the rankings
11. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [13] : Slaughtered Stanford
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) [12] : Didn't wrap up this game until late in the fourth
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) [15]
14. Georgia Bulldogs (6-2) [4]
15. LSU Tigers (7-2) [14]
16. Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) [19] : Gaining momentum in the Big XII
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-0) [17]
18. Duke Blue Devils (7-1) [18] : One game closer to returning to the ACC Championship Game
19. Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) [26] : Huge win in the rain at Rutgers
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-1) [24]
21. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [23] : Nice win over Kentucky
22. UCLA Bruins (7-2) [NR] : Bruins fought back into the rankings
23. Arizona Wildcats (6-2) [16] : Got knocked around by UCLA
24. Colorado State Rams (8-1) [NR] : The Mountain West finally breaks into the rankings!
25. USC Trojans (6-3) [25]
Dropped off: Utah Utes [#20], East Carolina Pirates [#21], Louisville Cardinals [#22]
On the Edge: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-2), Clemson Tigers (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3), Miami Hurricanes (6-3)
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