The last week was all divisional contests, but there were fewer upsets than the previous week. San Diego lost, which allowed Baltimore to grab the remaining AFC playoff spot. Carolina shocked Atlanta to win the NFC South; the rest of the games involving playoff teams went basically as expected.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4) [1] : Top seed in the AFC
2. Seattle Seahawks (12-4) [2] : Top seed in the NFC
3. Green Bay Packers (12-4) [3]
4. Denver Broncos (12-4) [4]
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) [5]
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) [6]
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) [7]
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) [8]
9. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) [10] : Best non-playoff team
10. Detroit Lions (11-5) [9]
11. Houston Texans (9-7) [13] : Best nine-win team
12. Buffalo Bills (9-7) [14]
13. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) [15]
14. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) [11] : Worst eleven-win team; lost four of last six games
15. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) [12]
16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) [17]
22. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Wild Card Playoffs
#5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at #4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) : The Cards have the worst recent record coming into the playoffs. Momentum is important, and it's on the side of the Panthers. However, the Cardinals defense is still stiff, and Cam Newton does not respond well to tough defenses. That side of the ball should give the Cardinals the victory. CARDINALS, 17-13
#6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) : These two teams split their appearances during the regular season, and the home team won in each. In fact, the home team was dominant in both, winning by 20 points in each contest. While I think this game will be closer, I have to favor the home team here. Big Ben has been on a roll, and few starting QBs rely on momentum more than Ben Roethlisberger. The defense has stiffened since the loss to the Saints, so they should match up well against the Ravens' defense. STEELERS, 27-20
#5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at #4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) : The Bengals were not happen to learn that their playoff opponent would be Indy, as the Colts demolished them earlier this season. I think that can happen again. Andy Dalton has shown brilliance in the past few games, but he is still prone to errors. The Bengals secondary has some holes, and that's where the Colts will exploit them. COLTS, 31-20
#6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at #3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4) : Detroit has some great players on offense, but Dallas has just been a behemoth this season. This team overcame their traditional December slump by having enough players who can play well, they can compensate for Romo's end-of-season decline. I don't know how far this offense can take the team (some people are looking at NFC Champion), but it will get them to the Divisional round. COWBOYS, 30-24
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Sunday, December 28, 2014
NCAA Bowl picks part II
As I write this, I have an even record in picking the bowl games. The last few have been close-scoring affairs, including one overtime game won by a missed PAT. Conference USA has already completed with a 4-1 record; that 80% success rate may be tough to beat. The Mountain West and MAC have guaranteed losing bowl records and the Pac-12 is currently unbeaten at 3-0.
I left off with December 30th bowls, so let's pick up where I left off:
Dec 31
PEACH BOWL: #11 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) v #4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) : TCU has a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the playoff, so they want to slaughter whoever they play. The fact that they face a former Number One ranked team will simply inspire them further. Ole Miss has a decent defense, but I don't think they can overcome the offensive firepower they will face here. TCU by 16
FIESTA BOWL: #15 Boise State Broncos (11-2) v #18 Arizona Wildcats (10-3) : The Broncos are the last chance for the Mountain West Conference to impress in these bowl games. I picked this game before the conference did so poorly in earlier bowl games, and I won't change my pick. The Broncos have a high-powered offense that is well-balanced, so they can attack you on the ground or in the air. Arizona has beaten some good teams, but aside from Washington State and Utah, their defense keep opponents in the game. The Broncos offense is likely to overwhelm that defense, so I favor them. BOISE STATE by ten
ORANGE BOWL: #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) at #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) : The Yellow Jackets have no passing game to speak of (122nd out of 125 FBS teams). They rely on a pounding ground game. Against one of the best defensive lines in the country, however? That won't work. The Bulldogs should score well enough to beat a Yellow Jackets team that will be lucky to gain 150 total yards in the game. MISS STATE by 18
Jan 1
I'm pulling the playoff semi-final games out at putting them at the bottom of this column.
OUTBACK BOWL: #22 Auburn Tigers (8-4) v #12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) : If you look at their last games, Auburn played tough in the Iron Bowl while Wisconsin was shut out by Ohio State. That's all most SEC fans see. Look at the Badgers body of work, though, and you see a team that wears down defenses with the best ground game in the country, and has just enough talent in the passing game to keep the runners rested. Hidden in all of that is the fact that the Badgers defense is a Top Ten unit. SEC defenders are known for speed, but this will be an endurance test, and I like Wisconsin's chances in that situation. Also, former coach and current Athletic Director Barry Alvarez coaches this game after the departure of Gary Anderson, and Alvarez always had some tricks up his sleeves. WISCONSIN by 13
COTTON BOWL: #7 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) v #6 Baylor Bears (11-1) : I'd love to pick the Spartans for the upset, and they tend to play well in bowl games, but high-powered and quick-firing offenses have been the undoing of this defense in the past two years. They led against Oregon, but a second-half surge by the Ducks cost them the game. I fear Baylor will engineer the same thing. If the Spartans learned from the Oregon loss, though, they might pull off the upset. BAYLOR by 12
CITRUS BOWL: #25 Missouri Tigers (10-3) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) : Geez, talk about a one-sided match-up! Just due to records, people will think Minnesota doesn't stand a chance. The Gophers were a tricky team this season, though, pulling out all the stops against tougher opponents. The Gophers may hang in there until midway in the fourth quarter, but a couple of late scores will propel Missouri to the win. MISSOURI by 13
Jan 2
ARMED FORCES BOWL: Houston Cougars (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : Pitt was a decent team this year, but too inconsistent to have confidence that they can match up against a physical Houston team. HOUSTON by ten
TAXSLAYER BOWL: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) : A rare Big Ten bowl game where the Big Ten team has a better record. Half of Tennessee's wins were against weak non-conference opponents. In conference they beat winless Vandy and a pathetic Kentucky team. Iowa, on the other hand, battled for their division title until the bitter end. IOWA by 12
ALAMO BOWL: #17 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) v UCLA Bruins (9-3) : UCLA is hoping to finish a season of disappointment. They thought they'd compete for the conference title, but that didn't happen. QB Brett Huntley did not progress as expected, and the Bruins were inconsistent in their play. Unfortunately, they face a Wildcats team that competed very favorably in the high-powered Big XII conference. K State will roll, as their offense is too strong for the UCLA defense. KANSAS STATE by 20
CACTUS BOWL: Washington Huskies (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : The Cowboys will keep this game closer than expected, as they competed against the strong teams in the Big XII. Washington could not beat the best teams in the Pac-12, but they played well against all of them except Arizona State. That strength of competition will serve the Huskies well in this bout. WASHINGTON by six
Jan 3 -- BIRMINGHAM BOWL: East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Florida Gators (6-6) : I'm going to do something radical, and pick against an SEC team playing a non-Power 5 team. The Gators struggled all season with their young team. The Pirates defense is talented, and will show the Gators things these young players haven't seen. This will be a low-scoring game, but definitely one-sided. EAST CAROLINA by nine
Jan 4 -- GODADDY BOWL: Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) : Key game for the Rockets and the MAC. A Rockets loss would be devastating for the conference. Trust me, that is on their mind. The Rockets have a slightly better offense but the Red Wolves have a slightly better defense, so these two are fairly evenly matched. Expect a close game, possibly another overtime game. If it does go to extra time, I favor the deeper bench of the Rockets. TOLEDO by three
Playoffs
ROSE BOWL: #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) v #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) : The Ducks are favored, and I have to agree with that. The Ducks are the type of team that Florida State cannot withstand. They have a potent offense that frequently scores; they have a very high success rate. QB Marcus Mariota has been playing flawlessly; the Seminoles defense relies on turnovers to help bring Florida State back later in the game. They won't be able to do that here. Oregon will take an early lead, as many of the Seminoles foes have done, scoring on their first three possessions. By the time Jameis Winston and company start clicking, they will face a 17-point or larger deficit. They've come back from that, but not if the Seminoles defense can't stop the Ducks offense. OREGON by 16
SUGAR BOWL: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) : I'd love to think Ohio State could win this game, especially after shutting out Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama has too many tools. The Buckeyes will stop their running game, and suppress Amari Cooper for a while, but the Tide will find ways to move. The Tide defense will rush and stymie QB Cardale Jones, who will start to lose his cool. ALABAMA by 12
CHAMPIONSHIP: I have to consider several combinations, as we don't know who will win. Let's start with my projected winners, and look at Oregon v Alabama. The problem is Oregon's weaker defense. A Championship game between those two will be an offensive showdown, which seems to benefit Oregon. However, Alabama won high-scoring battles (remember the Iron Bowl?) too, and their defense is fast enough to compete with Oregon. It would be a close game, but I'd favor ALABAMA in that game.
What if Florida State wins? It won't be close. Alabama's defense is stiff and will prevent a Seminoles comeback; the Tide defense played best in the second half, and especially in the fourth quarter. ALABAMA again.
What if Alabama is shocked by Ohio State? The key there is whether JT Barrett is healthy by Jan 12th. If he is, will they bring him in cold? Given the fact that Cardale Jones would have beaten Alabama, Coach Meyer will likely keep him in there, but have Barrett available to spell him. That would help against a challenge like Oregon, where they will try to wear down opponents. The Buckeyes defense is deep enough that Oregon won't exhaust their players. Ohio State's only loss was due to a poor game on the part of JT Barrett; if the QB is "on", Ohio State is tough to beat. No matter whether they face Oregon or Florida State, I'd have to favor them if they get past Alabama.
Therefore, the winner of the Sugar Bowl is my pick for the National Champion.
I left off with December 30th bowls, so let's pick up where I left off:
Dec 31
PEACH BOWL: #11 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) v #4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) : TCU has a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the playoff, so they want to slaughter whoever they play. The fact that they face a former Number One ranked team will simply inspire them further. Ole Miss has a decent defense, but I don't think they can overcome the offensive firepower they will face here. TCU by 16
FIESTA BOWL: #15 Boise State Broncos (11-2) v #18 Arizona Wildcats (10-3) : The Broncos are the last chance for the Mountain West Conference to impress in these bowl games. I picked this game before the conference did so poorly in earlier bowl games, and I won't change my pick. The Broncos have a high-powered offense that is well-balanced, so they can attack you on the ground or in the air. Arizona has beaten some good teams, but aside from Washington State and Utah, their defense keep opponents in the game. The Broncos offense is likely to overwhelm that defense, so I favor them. BOISE STATE by ten
ORANGE BOWL: #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) at #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) : The Yellow Jackets have no passing game to speak of (122nd out of 125 FBS teams). They rely on a pounding ground game. Against one of the best defensive lines in the country, however? That won't work. The Bulldogs should score well enough to beat a Yellow Jackets team that will be lucky to gain 150 total yards in the game. MISS STATE by 18
Jan 1
I'm pulling the playoff semi-final games out at putting them at the bottom of this column.
OUTBACK BOWL: #22 Auburn Tigers (8-4) v #12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) : If you look at their last games, Auburn played tough in the Iron Bowl while Wisconsin was shut out by Ohio State. That's all most SEC fans see. Look at the Badgers body of work, though, and you see a team that wears down defenses with the best ground game in the country, and has just enough talent in the passing game to keep the runners rested. Hidden in all of that is the fact that the Badgers defense is a Top Ten unit. SEC defenders are known for speed, but this will be an endurance test, and I like Wisconsin's chances in that situation. Also, former coach and current Athletic Director Barry Alvarez coaches this game after the departure of Gary Anderson, and Alvarez always had some tricks up his sleeves. WISCONSIN by 13
COTTON BOWL: #7 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) v #6 Baylor Bears (11-1) : I'd love to pick the Spartans for the upset, and they tend to play well in bowl games, but high-powered and quick-firing offenses have been the undoing of this defense in the past two years. They led against Oregon, but a second-half surge by the Ducks cost them the game. I fear Baylor will engineer the same thing. If the Spartans learned from the Oregon loss, though, they might pull off the upset. BAYLOR by 12
CITRUS BOWL: #25 Missouri Tigers (10-3) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) : Geez, talk about a one-sided match-up! Just due to records, people will think Minnesota doesn't stand a chance. The Gophers were a tricky team this season, though, pulling out all the stops against tougher opponents. The Gophers may hang in there until midway in the fourth quarter, but a couple of late scores will propel Missouri to the win. MISSOURI by 13
Jan 2
ARMED FORCES BOWL: Houston Cougars (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : Pitt was a decent team this year, but too inconsistent to have confidence that they can match up against a physical Houston team. HOUSTON by ten
TAXSLAYER BOWL: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) : A rare Big Ten bowl game where the Big Ten team has a better record. Half of Tennessee's wins were against weak non-conference opponents. In conference they beat winless Vandy and a pathetic Kentucky team. Iowa, on the other hand, battled for their division title until the bitter end. IOWA by 12
ALAMO BOWL: #17 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) v UCLA Bruins (9-3) : UCLA is hoping to finish a season of disappointment. They thought they'd compete for the conference title, but that didn't happen. QB Brett Huntley did not progress as expected, and the Bruins were inconsistent in their play. Unfortunately, they face a Wildcats team that competed very favorably in the high-powered Big XII conference. K State will roll, as their offense is too strong for the UCLA defense. KANSAS STATE by 20
CACTUS BOWL: Washington Huskies (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : The Cowboys will keep this game closer than expected, as they competed against the strong teams in the Big XII. Washington could not beat the best teams in the Pac-12, but they played well against all of them except Arizona State. That strength of competition will serve the Huskies well in this bout. WASHINGTON by six
Jan 3 -- BIRMINGHAM BOWL: East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Florida Gators (6-6) : I'm going to do something radical, and pick against an SEC team playing a non-Power 5 team. The Gators struggled all season with their young team. The Pirates defense is talented, and will show the Gators things these young players haven't seen. This will be a low-scoring game, but definitely one-sided. EAST CAROLINA by nine
Jan 4 -- GODADDY BOWL: Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) : Key game for the Rockets and the MAC. A Rockets loss would be devastating for the conference. Trust me, that is on their mind. The Rockets have a slightly better offense but the Red Wolves have a slightly better defense, so these two are fairly evenly matched. Expect a close game, possibly another overtime game. If it does go to extra time, I favor the deeper bench of the Rockets. TOLEDO by three
Playoffs
ROSE BOWL: #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) v #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) : The Ducks are favored, and I have to agree with that. The Ducks are the type of team that Florida State cannot withstand. They have a potent offense that frequently scores; they have a very high success rate. QB Marcus Mariota has been playing flawlessly; the Seminoles defense relies on turnovers to help bring Florida State back later in the game. They won't be able to do that here. Oregon will take an early lead, as many of the Seminoles foes have done, scoring on their first three possessions. By the time Jameis Winston and company start clicking, they will face a 17-point or larger deficit. They've come back from that, but not if the Seminoles defense can't stop the Ducks offense. OREGON by 16
SUGAR BOWL: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) : I'd love to think Ohio State could win this game, especially after shutting out Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama has too many tools. The Buckeyes will stop their running game, and suppress Amari Cooper for a while, but the Tide will find ways to move. The Tide defense will rush and stymie QB Cardale Jones, who will start to lose his cool. ALABAMA by 12
CHAMPIONSHIP: I have to consider several combinations, as we don't know who will win. Let's start with my projected winners, and look at Oregon v Alabama. The problem is Oregon's weaker defense. A Championship game between those two will be an offensive showdown, which seems to benefit Oregon. However, Alabama won high-scoring battles (remember the Iron Bowl?) too, and their defense is fast enough to compete with Oregon. It would be a close game, but I'd favor ALABAMA in that game.
What if Florida State wins? It won't be close. Alabama's defense is stiff and will prevent a Seminoles comeback; the Tide defense played best in the second half, and especially in the fourth quarter. ALABAMA again.
What if Alabama is shocked by Ohio State? The key there is whether JT Barrett is healthy by Jan 12th. If he is, will they bring him in cold? Given the fact that Cardale Jones would have beaten Alabama, Coach Meyer will likely keep him in there, but have Barrett available to spell him. That would help against a challenge like Oregon, where they will try to wear down opponents. The Buckeyes defense is deep enough that Oregon won't exhaust their players. Ohio State's only loss was due to a poor game on the part of JT Barrett; if the QB is "on", Ohio State is tough to beat. No matter whether they face Oregon or Florida State, I'd have to favor them if they get past Alabama.
Therefore, the winner of the Sugar Bowl is my pick for the National Champion.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 16 Power Rankings and Week 17 picks
One major takeaway from Week 16 -- divisional games screw up records. These teams know each other, so it almost doesn't matter what someone's record is coming into the game. Lots of unpredictable results happen.
The playoff picture became much clearer. Coming into the week, we knew the winners of three AFC divisional and one NFC team had clinched the playoffs. Now, we know five of the six playoff teams in each conference and the number one seed in the AFC is clinched. The New England Patriots will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver can clinch the second seed with a win this week, and they are at home against Oakland. Cincy and Pittsburgh play for the remaining AFC title and for third seed. Colts have the fourth seed. The last AFC playoff spot goes to San Diego if they win. A Ravens win and Chargers loss sends Baltimore to the playoffs. Houston can go if the Texans win and both the Chargers and Ravens lose. KC is the only other contender, who goes if all three lose and they win.
The NFC has only one division title crowned -- Dallas has won the East and the number three seed. Detroit and Green Bay play for the North title. Seattle captures the West with a win, and also gains the number one seed. The number two seed goes to the NFC North winner, who can win the number one seed if Seattle loses. The number four seed goes to the NFC South winner, determined by the winner of the Carolina v Atlanta clash. The NFC West and NFC North runners-up are the wildcards, and the seeding will be determined by head-to-head or conference record as follows: Seattle over Green Bay, Detroit over Seattle, Arizona over Detroit, Arizona over Green Bay.
Top Twelve [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) [1] : They may have squeaked by the Jets this week, but they have the best record in the league
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [5] : Dominance over Arizona gives them best shot for number one seed
3. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [3] : Strong win, but offense should have done better against Tampa Bay
4. Denver Broncos (11-4) [2] : Shocking loss and dismal performance by Peyton, but still in drivers' seat for second seed
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) [8] : Captured NFC East crown and successfully overcame December jinx
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [10] : Stronger team heading into AFC North showdown
7. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [4] : Utterly demolished by Dallas and consigned to the fourth seed
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) [6] : Could be the best team left out of the playoffs
9. Detroit Lions (11-4) [11] : Despite near loss to Chicago, in line to win division
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [9] : Their loss to Washington helped Dallas win the division a week early
11. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) [7] : Demolished by Seattle, they need help to win NFC West, or be fifth seed
12. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) [15] : The win over Denver gains them AFC North lead
Best NFC South team:
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Two teams in the playoffs and a third contending - no other division has a shot at three playoff teams
2. NFC West [1] : Possible location of Number One seed in the NFC
3 (tie). NFC North [4] : Close losses by Chicago and Minnesota and the leaders playing for first round bye
3 (tie). NFC East [6] : Division jumps up with strong wins by Dallas and the Giants
5. AFC East [3] : Pats looked tired against Jets, Buffalo lost to Oakland, and Miami barely beat Minnesota. They went from three potential playoff teams to only one in a single week
6. AFC West [5] : Denver's pathetic performance hurt, and San Diego needed overtime to beat the 49ers
7. AFC South [7] : Texans won - only highlight
8. NFC South [8] : Carolina should have beaten Cleveland by more, even with Hoyer in for Manziel
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots already have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so Coach Belichick is likely to rest many of his key guys. He won't be able to keep Tom Brady off the field, but backup offensive and defensive guys will get playing time. That should allow Buffalo to finish the season with a win. BILLS, 23-17
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Despite a losing record, Teddy Bridgewater has had a decent rookie season. A win would be the best way to finish the season. A Bears loss would also point out that they need a new direction. VIKINGS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Manziel's injury has put Hoyer back under center, and he had a decent game last week. Unfortunately, "decent" won't be good enough against the tough Ravens, who are battling for a playoff spot. RAVENS, 26-13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys have no shot for a playoff bye, so normally I'd say they should rest their players; they should certainly rest DeMarco Murray. However, most of the Cowboys will want to play against their rivals, which means the Redskins will be destroyed. COWBOYS, 31-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts cannot get a playoff bye, and even third seed is unlikely. They will likely rest some players. However, I think the Titans are bad enough to lose even with the Colts resting. COLTS, 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have an outside chance at the playoffs, not that they'd need that incentive to beat the Jags. TEXANS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints aren't playing for anything other than pride. For the Bucs, they lost that about four weeks ago. SAINTS, 27-20
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: By now, I think the Jets know that they aren't playing to save Rex Ryan's job -- he'll be gone. The players love him, so they may want to give him a win for his final game. They failed to give him a win in their final home game, so they will stretch Miami. The Dolphins won't go quietly, though, and they could sneak up on them in the fourth quarter. DOLPHINS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Coach Kelly doesn't know how to quit, so the Eagles won't slow down in this final game, even though they have no shot at the playoffs. EAGLES, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's an interesting game, perhaps the most interesting of the early games. The Chargers need a win to reach the playoffs. The Chiefs would love to play spoiler, as well as having an outside chance at the playoffs. This will be a classic slugfest, with the lead changing several times. While I normally pick the home team in such bouts, I'll give a slight edge to San Diego. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The Cards know they could still win the NFC West, although they would need help. That will keep them fighting. Their defense is their strength. That defense is stronger than the 49ers, whose offense is sputtering. If Harbaugh and Kaepernick can regain their form, the 49ers could win. However, I don't think they've figured out what is wrong, so I don't see a return to form coming. CARDINALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have an unbeaten divisional record, and are certainly poised to keep that and win the title with a 7-9 record. Carolina struggled against Cleveland last week, so I like Atlanta even more. FALCONS, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: This will be a great battle! The winner captures the NFC North crown and a playoff bye, so both teams will be primed. The Packers offense has been explosive all year. While the Lions defense will be fierce, I think the Pack has just too many weapons. PACKERS, 23-21
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland would love to play spoiler, but the Broncos want a strong game to propel them into the playoffs. Expect an offensive explosion, more than the Raiders defense can handle. BRONCOS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: One team that has not feared the 12th Man is the Rams. They will play tough again this year, but Seattle has been getting better each week. Knowing they have the top seed on the line, their defense will be unstoppable. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
Sunday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: After a shutout and then shut down of Peyton Manning, the Bengals come into this game with great momentum. The Steelers have been unbearable at this season, though, averaging nearly 20 points more than on the road. While Cincy will fight hard for that division title, I think the Steelers will pull this one out. STEELERS, 26-23
The playoff picture became much clearer. Coming into the week, we knew the winners of three AFC divisional and one NFC team had clinched the playoffs. Now, we know five of the six playoff teams in each conference and the number one seed in the AFC is clinched. The New England Patriots will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver can clinch the second seed with a win this week, and they are at home against Oakland. Cincy and Pittsburgh play for the remaining AFC title and for third seed. Colts have the fourth seed. The last AFC playoff spot goes to San Diego if they win. A Ravens win and Chargers loss sends Baltimore to the playoffs. Houston can go if the Texans win and both the Chargers and Ravens lose. KC is the only other contender, who goes if all three lose and they win.
The NFC has only one division title crowned -- Dallas has won the East and the number three seed. Detroit and Green Bay play for the North title. Seattle captures the West with a win, and also gains the number one seed. The number two seed goes to the NFC North winner, who can win the number one seed if Seattle loses. The number four seed goes to the NFC South winner, determined by the winner of the Carolina v Atlanta clash. The NFC West and NFC North runners-up are the wildcards, and the seeding will be determined by head-to-head or conference record as follows: Seattle over Green Bay, Detroit over Seattle, Arizona over Detroit, Arizona over Green Bay.
Top Twelve [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) [1] : They may have squeaked by the Jets this week, but they have the best record in the league
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [5] : Dominance over Arizona gives them best shot for number one seed
3. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [3] : Strong win, but offense should have done better against Tampa Bay
4. Denver Broncos (11-4) [2] : Shocking loss and dismal performance by Peyton, but still in drivers' seat for second seed
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) [8] : Captured NFC East crown and successfully overcame December jinx
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [10] : Stronger team heading into AFC North showdown
7. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [4] : Utterly demolished by Dallas and consigned to the fourth seed
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) [6] : Could be the best team left out of the playoffs
9. Detroit Lions (11-4) [11] : Despite near loss to Chicago, in line to win division
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [9] : Their loss to Washington helped Dallas win the division a week early
11. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) [7] : Demolished by Seattle, they need help to win NFC West, or be fifth seed
12. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) [15] : The win over Denver gains them AFC North lead
Best NFC South team:
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Two teams in the playoffs and a third contending - no other division has a shot at three playoff teams
2. NFC West [1] : Possible location of Number One seed in the NFC
3 (tie). NFC North [4] : Close losses by Chicago and Minnesota and the leaders playing for first round bye
3 (tie). NFC East [6] : Division jumps up with strong wins by Dallas and the Giants
5. AFC East [3] : Pats looked tired against Jets, Buffalo lost to Oakland, and Miami barely beat Minnesota. They went from three potential playoff teams to only one in a single week
6. AFC West [5] : Denver's pathetic performance hurt, and San Diego needed overtime to beat the 49ers
7. AFC South [7] : Texans won - only highlight
8. NFC South [8] : Carolina should have beaten Cleveland by more, even with Hoyer in for Manziel
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots already have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so Coach Belichick is likely to rest many of his key guys. He won't be able to keep Tom Brady off the field, but backup offensive and defensive guys will get playing time. That should allow Buffalo to finish the season with a win. BILLS, 23-17
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Despite a losing record, Teddy Bridgewater has had a decent rookie season. A win would be the best way to finish the season. A Bears loss would also point out that they need a new direction. VIKINGS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Manziel's injury has put Hoyer back under center, and he had a decent game last week. Unfortunately, "decent" won't be good enough against the tough Ravens, who are battling for a playoff spot. RAVENS, 26-13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys have no shot for a playoff bye, so normally I'd say they should rest their players; they should certainly rest DeMarco Murray. However, most of the Cowboys will want to play against their rivals, which means the Redskins will be destroyed. COWBOYS, 31-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts cannot get a playoff bye, and even third seed is unlikely. They will likely rest some players. However, I think the Titans are bad enough to lose even with the Colts resting. COLTS, 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have an outside chance at the playoffs, not that they'd need that incentive to beat the Jags. TEXANS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints aren't playing for anything other than pride. For the Bucs, they lost that about four weeks ago. SAINTS, 27-20
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: By now, I think the Jets know that they aren't playing to save Rex Ryan's job -- he'll be gone. The players love him, so they may want to give him a win for his final game. They failed to give him a win in their final home game, so they will stretch Miami. The Dolphins won't go quietly, though, and they could sneak up on them in the fourth quarter. DOLPHINS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Coach Kelly doesn't know how to quit, so the Eagles won't slow down in this final game, even though they have no shot at the playoffs. EAGLES, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's an interesting game, perhaps the most interesting of the early games. The Chargers need a win to reach the playoffs. The Chiefs would love to play spoiler, as well as having an outside chance at the playoffs. This will be a classic slugfest, with the lead changing several times. While I normally pick the home team in such bouts, I'll give a slight edge to San Diego. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The Cards know they could still win the NFC West, although they would need help. That will keep them fighting. Their defense is their strength. That defense is stronger than the 49ers, whose offense is sputtering. If Harbaugh and Kaepernick can regain their form, the 49ers could win. However, I don't think they've figured out what is wrong, so I don't see a return to form coming. CARDINALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have an unbeaten divisional record, and are certainly poised to keep that and win the title with a 7-9 record. Carolina struggled against Cleveland last week, so I like Atlanta even more. FALCONS, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: This will be a great battle! The winner captures the NFC North crown and a playoff bye, so both teams will be primed. The Packers offense has been explosive all year. While the Lions defense will be fierce, I think the Pack has just too many weapons. PACKERS, 23-21
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland would love to play spoiler, but the Broncos want a strong game to propel them into the playoffs. Expect an offensive explosion, more than the Raiders defense can handle. BRONCOS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: One team that has not feared the 12th Man is the Rams. They will play tough again this year, but Seattle has been getting better each week. Knowing they have the top seed on the line, their defense will be unstoppable. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
Sunday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: After a shutout and then shut down of Peyton Manning, the Bengals come into this game with great momentum. The Steelers have been unbearable at this season, though, averaging nearly 20 points more than on the road. While Cincy will fight hard for that division title, I think the Steelers will pull this one out. STEELERS, 26-23
Friday, December 19, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 16 picks
I'm picking a lot of visiting teams this week. That always makes me nervous.
Thursday night: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Does anyone really care who wins this game? Oh, perhaps the Raiders or Jets, who will be competing with the loser for the Number One draft pick. Other than that, this game won't draw a big crowd. TITANS, 17-16
Saturday games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: After losing two in a row, the Eagles need a strong victory to get back on track. Given the problems having in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure how much enthusiasm these players really have to win. EAGLES, 27-17
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are not living up to potential. Will all of the media coverage, as well as the incentive of beating the team from nearby San Diego, get them motivated? Perhaps, but previous motivational opportunities haven't worked, so I can't believe any this time will. CHARGERS, 21-17
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Probably the battle for the NFC South, since the Saints face the Bucs next week. A Saints win basically clinches a divisional title, and the probability that they will not have a losing season. Just for the sake of the integrity of the playoffs, I'm hoping for that. SAINTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: JJ Watt has been a dynamic player, but the Ravens are better manned both defensively and offensively. RAVENS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: Here's a fun game to pick! If Manziel was still on the bench, I'd pick Cleveland quickly, but he brings these guys down. Carolina can be their own worst enemy, too, but I like their chances better, especially since Cam Newton returns under center. Besides, I need to pick more home teams. PANTHERS, 16-14
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: The Bears have actually scored more points than Detroit this season, but their porous defense gives their opponents a great chance to score more than normal, and that will fuel the Lions. LIONS, 31-20
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This edition of the "Battle of the Bays" should be an easy victory for the Pack. They'll need it, as they face the Lions next week for the NFC North title. PACKERS, 30-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: KC has power, but the Steelers at home have been brutal this season. KC's defense will have their hands full with this team at home, who has scored more than 30 points in five home games. They may not do that against the Chiefs' defense, but they'll score enough to win. STEELERS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: Another team with a strong defense, Miami has also been putting up impressive numbers, thanks to a banner year by Ryan Tannehill. That defense will bother Teddy Bridgewater, who is having the best year of all rookie QBs. DOLPHINS, 21-13
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets are competing for the Number One pick. This game will help. PATRIOTS, 31-16
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are also in the running for the top draft pick. Buffalo's defense will keep them in that race. BILLS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: This squad of Cowboys seems strong enough to prevent their traditional December slump. They say they will play DeMarco Murray, but how well can he hold the ball with his broken hand? Two turnovers may turn the tide against them, and help the Colts. COLTS, 30-23
New York Giants at St Louis Rams: The Rams should be able to hold back the Giants, although this is often the time of year when they make a resurgent march. RAMS, 20-16
Sunday night: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: This game could decide the NFC West. Arizona leads, but they are relying on their defense as the offense sputters with their third string QB. Seattle's defense has stiffened, which should make this an interesting contest. SEAHAWKS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Coming into this game, the Bengals will likely trail the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Following this game, they will trail them even more. The Broncos offense will overwhelm the Bengals defense, and the Bengals offense can't keep up with them. BRONCOS, 31-24
Thursday night: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Does anyone really care who wins this game? Oh, perhaps the Raiders or Jets, who will be competing with the loser for the Number One draft pick. Other than that, this game won't draw a big crowd. TITANS, 17-16
Saturday games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: After losing two in a row, the Eagles need a strong victory to get back on track. Given the problems having in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure how much enthusiasm these players really have to win. EAGLES, 27-17
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are not living up to potential. Will all of the media coverage, as well as the incentive of beating the team from nearby San Diego, get them motivated? Perhaps, but previous motivational opportunities haven't worked, so I can't believe any this time will. CHARGERS, 21-17
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Probably the battle for the NFC South, since the Saints face the Bucs next week. A Saints win basically clinches a divisional title, and the probability that they will not have a losing season. Just for the sake of the integrity of the playoffs, I'm hoping for that. SAINTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: JJ Watt has been a dynamic player, but the Ravens are better manned both defensively and offensively. RAVENS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: Here's a fun game to pick! If Manziel was still on the bench, I'd pick Cleveland quickly, but he brings these guys down. Carolina can be their own worst enemy, too, but I like their chances better, especially since Cam Newton returns under center. Besides, I need to pick more home teams. PANTHERS, 16-14
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: The Bears have actually scored more points than Detroit this season, but their porous defense gives their opponents a great chance to score more than normal, and that will fuel the Lions. LIONS, 31-20
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This edition of the "Battle of the Bays" should be an easy victory for the Pack. They'll need it, as they face the Lions next week for the NFC North title. PACKERS, 30-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: KC has power, but the Steelers at home have been brutal this season. KC's defense will have their hands full with this team at home, who has scored more than 30 points in five home games. They may not do that against the Chiefs' defense, but they'll score enough to win. STEELERS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: Another team with a strong defense, Miami has also been putting up impressive numbers, thanks to a banner year by Ryan Tannehill. That defense will bother Teddy Bridgewater, who is having the best year of all rookie QBs. DOLPHINS, 21-13
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets are competing for the Number One pick. This game will help. PATRIOTS, 31-16
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are also in the running for the top draft pick. Buffalo's defense will keep them in that race. BILLS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: This squad of Cowboys seems strong enough to prevent their traditional December slump. They say they will play DeMarco Murray, but how well can he hold the ball with his broken hand? Two turnovers may turn the tide against them, and help the Colts. COLTS, 30-23
New York Giants at St Louis Rams: The Rams should be able to hold back the Giants, although this is often the time of year when they make a resurgent march. RAMS, 20-16
Sunday night: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: This game could decide the NFC West. Arizona leads, but they are relying on their defense as the offense sputters with their third string QB. Seattle's defense has stiffened, which should make this an interesting contest. SEAHAWKS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Coming into this game, the Bengals will likely trail the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Following this game, they will trail them even more. The Broncos offense will overwhelm the Bengals defense, and the Bengals offense can't keep up with them. BRONCOS, 31-24
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 15 news and Power Rankings
Takeaways from Week 15:
1. The Cowboys seem to have overcome their December slump. Now let's see if they can overcome their playoff woes.
2. Something has happened to the Eagles defense. Two consecutive weeks they have allowed opponents to score plenty against them.
3. Speaking of defenses, the Chicago Bears, historically a tough defensive team, has the worst scoring defense in the league this year. That, more than anything, is an indication that it's time for a massive coaching change.
4. NOW will you all believe me about how bad Johnny Manziel really is?
I have expanded my Top Ten to the Top Half, so that playoff contenders can be ranked.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3) [1] : With Green Bay's loss, there is no doubt who the top team is
2. Denver Broncos (11-3) [3] : Defense still needs work, but that offense is tough to stop
3. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [2] : Buffalo's defense handed Aaron Rodgers his worst game ever, but they should bounce back
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) [4] : Like Denver, the defense lacks some punch, but the offense makes up for it
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) [6] : They keep improving as the playoffs approach. That momentum could be important
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [5] : Playoff contender, but behind in their own division
7. Arizona Cardinals (11-3) [8] : With this defense, it doesn't seem to matter who is under center
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) [9] : Dismantled Philly to take NFC East lead
9. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) [7] : Second straight loss brings them down
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) [11] : They don't win big, but they find ways to win
11. Detroit Lions (10-4) [10] : Not an impressive win, but they gained NFC North lead with Packers loss
12. Buffalo Bills (8-6) [14] : Kept playoff hopes alive by skunking Aaron Rodgers
13. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) [17] : Huge win, but they did play Oakland
14. Houston Texans (7-7) [12] : Not looking good for the team, especially with the loss of their QB
15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) [18]: Been a long time since the Bengals shut out anyone
16. San Diego Chargers (8-6) [15]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1 (tie). NFC West [1] : Despite the 49ers falling, Seattle and Arizona dominate the conference
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : Cleveland has ensured that not all the teams have winning records, but with three teams in the top half of the league, it's still a strong division. Likely to provide both wildcards
3. AFC East [3] : Huge win by Buffalo helped the division
4. NFC North [4] : Detroit was the only winner, and it was unimpressive. Gap between them and #5 is shrinking
5. AFC West [5] : Denver and KC won big, but both played divisional opponents, so their opponents fell
6. NFC East [6] : Beat up on each other
7. AFC South [7] : Jacksonville and Tennessee hung in there, but ultimately only Indy was a winner
8. NFC South [8] : Their highest ranked team is #19. Nuff said
1. The Cowboys seem to have overcome their December slump. Now let's see if they can overcome their playoff woes.
2. Something has happened to the Eagles defense. Two consecutive weeks they have allowed opponents to score plenty against them.
3. Speaking of defenses, the Chicago Bears, historically a tough defensive team, has the worst scoring defense in the league this year. That, more than anything, is an indication that it's time for a massive coaching change.
4. NOW will you all believe me about how bad Johnny Manziel really is?
I have expanded my Top Ten to the Top Half, so that playoff contenders can be ranked.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3) [1] : With Green Bay's loss, there is no doubt who the top team is
2. Denver Broncos (11-3) [3] : Defense still needs work, but that offense is tough to stop
3. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [2] : Buffalo's defense handed Aaron Rodgers his worst game ever, but they should bounce back
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) [4] : Like Denver, the defense lacks some punch, but the offense makes up for it
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) [6] : They keep improving as the playoffs approach. That momentum could be important
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [5] : Playoff contender, but behind in their own division
7. Arizona Cardinals (11-3) [8] : With this defense, it doesn't seem to matter who is under center
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) [9] : Dismantled Philly to take NFC East lead
9. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) [7] : Second straight loss brings them down
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) [11] : They don't win big, but they find ways to win
11. Detroit Lions (10-4) [10] : Not an impressive win, but they gained NFC North lead with Packers loss
12. Buffalo Bills (8-6) [14] : Kept playoff hopes alive by skunking Aaron Rodgers
13. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) [17] : Huge win, but they did play Oakland
14. Houston Texans (7-7) [12] : Not looking good for the team, especially with the loss of their QB
15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) [18]: Been a long time since the Bengals shut out anyone
16. San Diego Chargers (8-6) [15]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1 (tie). NFC West [1] : Despite the 49ers falling, Seattle and Arizona dominate the conference
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : Cleveland has ensured that not all the teams have winning records, but with three teams in the top half of the league, it's still a strong division. Likely to provide both wildcards
3. AFC East [3] : Huge win by Buffalo helped the division
4. NFC North [4] : Detroit was the only winner, and it was unimpressive. Gap between them and #5 is shrinking
5. AFC West [5] : Denver and KC won big, but both played divisional opponents, so their opponents fell
6. NFC East [6] : Beat up on each other
7. AFC South [7] : Jacksonville and Tennessee hung in there, but ultimately only Indy was a winner
8. NFC South [8] : Their highest ranked team is #19. Nuff said
Sunday, December 14, 2014
NCAA 2014 Bowl picks part I
Snow is on the ground, malls are filled with Christmas shoppers, so it's that time of year again. Time for my annual look at the NCAA bowl games. Two new bowls were added this year, making the task even more daunting. I will again split my picks into two columns. This one will examine the games prior to New Years Eve.
Sat Dec 20
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): This Mountain West v Sun Belt match-up is often won by the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns were a pretty good team this year, and they're going to have plenty of fans in their corner, as they don't have far to travel to attend this game. Both teams are fairly even matched. They both prefer to run versus pass, and both allowed about 28 points per game this season. The difference is their non-conference performance. Nevada, with a tougher schedule, went 3-1, while the Cajuns went 1-3. Not even a bunch of friendly fans can overcome that. NEVADA by six
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State Aggies (9-4) v UTEP Miners (7-5): The Aggies spent part of the season flirting with the Top 25. They did that in strange style for the Mountain West -- on defense. The Aggies were stingy, holding most opponents to 20 points or less. They even held high-powered Colorado State to 16 points. An opening loss to Tennessee was erased by great play later in the season. Two of their losses were to ranked teams: Colorado State and Boise State. I like the Aggies in this one. UTAH STATE by 13
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (8-4) v #21 Colorado State Rams (10-2): The state of Utah will be focused on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, as both of their state schools battle in bowls. Utah had a decent season against Pac-12 opponents, and went unbeaten with a fairly easy non-conference schedule. The Rams were ignored by most national analysts, who seem to ignore any Mountain West team except Boise State. That may be the undoing of the favored Utes. The Rams are a strong team, especially through the air. They have one of the Top Ten passing attacks in the country. That may prove too much for the overtaxed Utah secondary. The best comparison between these two? How they played against common opponent Colorado. Utah won by only four, while the Rams won by fourteen. COLORADO STATE by 16
Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (9-3): A busy day for the Mountain West concludes with this fourth bowl game, as the Falcons face off against Western Michigan. Again, much of the nation ignores the MAC conference, but Air Force should not dismiss Western Michigan. After early struggles against Purdue and Virginia Tech, the Broncos buckled down and had a tremendous run until getting beaten in their final game against eventual MAC Champion Northern Illinois. They only lost by ten points, which is quite an accomplishment (just ask Bowling Green about that!). That momentum will be valuable rolling into this bowl game. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Camellia Bowl: South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) : The MAC runner-up gets no love after being thrashed by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championships, as they are relegated to this new bowl, created mostly to give the Sun Belt a third bowl game. Nice idea, but the Jaguars are horribly overmatched. BOWLING GREEN by 20
Mon Dec 22
BYU Cougars (8-4) v #19 Memphis Tigers (9-3): Who has the best defense outside of the Power Five conferences? Memphis, who has the Number Five defense in the country. Why that didn't give them national attention I do not know, but I credited their performance with a Top 25 ranking. They'll get a bowl victory, too. MEMPHIS by 16
Tues Dec 23
Boca Raton Bowl: #14 Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2): The key factor to determining a victor here is whether Marshall has gotten over their shocking overtime loss to Western Kentucky, when the Hilltoppers successfully went for a two-point conversion, that cost them their unbeaten season. They hadn't for the Conference USA Championship, barely eking out a three-point victory. Northern Illinois was not overpowering opponents, but they won steadily (with the exception of the Central Michigan upset) after their blow-out loss to Arkansas. The Huskies capped their season with a dominant win in the MAC Championship. That shows how strong the Huskies can be, and what they can do if Marshall's head isn't in the game. I'll pick the Herd, but watch out for the Huskies if Marshall isn't mentally aware. MARSHALL by four
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy Midshipmen (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): Even records, but not evenly matched. Navy concluded their season with a tough struggle against Army. Yes, the Black Knights were improved this season, but it was still a poor performance. San Diego State had some impressive games this season, and should dominate this game. SAN DIEGO STATE by 16
Wed Dec 24
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5) v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5): The Bahamas add their tropical paradise to Hawaii in the "fantasy locations" bowl duo on Christmas Eve. It pits the strong defense of the Chippewas against the powerful offense of the Hilltoppers. I usually pick the defense in such battles, but the Hilltoppers have played well in close games, which I suspect this one will be. WESTERN KENTUCKY by four
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7) v Rice Owls (7-5): Okay, I accept that any team who played in a conference championship should be given a bowl game, but to reward a team with a losing season with a trip to Hawaii? I can't see it. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, and will play tough in the first half, but I think Rice will come back to spoil the Bulldogs attempt at a non-losing season. RICE by five
Fri Dec 26
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5): Once again the bowl committee pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records. They conspire to make the Big Ten's bowl record poor. However, it may backfire in this case. Yes, Tech made it to the Conference USA Championship Game, where they lost to nearly-unbeaten Marshall by only three points, but Tech's non-conference schedule was a joke, and they still went 1-4, including losses to FCS Northwestern State (who didn't even make the FCS playoffs) and former FCS Old Dominion. Both teams have strong passing games, but Illinois' rushing game didn't appear until the end of the season. If that was a signal of things to come, they might pull out the victory. I'll pick Tech, but I'm rooting for my Illini. LOUISIANA TECH by six
Detroit Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): I think the bowl selection committee forgot that Rutgers joined the Big Ten conference this year, and paired them against a weaker team. Fine, we'll take the victory. RUTGERS by 13
St Petersburg Bowl: NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v UCF Golden Knights (9-3): It won't be a pleasant day for North Carolinians, as both of their state schools are doomed to fall to Knights. The Golden Knights have a stiff defense, and they will stymie the Wolfpack. Worse, NC State suffered from turnover problems during much of the season, and UCF is very opportunistic when it comes to forcing turnovers, and gaining points from them. UCF by 21
Sat Dec 27
Military Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6): As Ohio State can attest, never discount the Hokies. However, this was not one of their better seasons (despite the early victory over the Buckeyes). Despite the likelihood of a sea of Hokie fans (since they aren't that far from Annapolis), the Hokies will be taxed by a strong Bearcat offense. CINCINNATI by 16
Sun Bowl: #20 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (9-3): Can it the be-Deviled bowl. Duke actually has a better point differential, but that was against weaker opponents. The Sun Devils were a terror in the highly-competitive Pac-12 this season, churning out five consecutive victories after a horrible loss to UCLA back in September. ARIZONA STATE by 14
Independence Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (6-6) v South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6): Geez, I'm not even sure I care who wins this one. Neither team lived up to their expectations this season. Miami was ranked preseason, and they were supposed to contend with Florida State. An opening loss to Louisville foreshadowed a dismal season that concluded with three consecutive losses. Miami's only highlight? A dominating win over Duke. The Gamecocks took a massive step backwards defensively this season, and found they were battling for every victory. Their only dominant victories were against Furman and South Alabama. That leans me towards Miami, but I'm not sure either team will inspire me to watch the game. Certainly their sponsor keeps me away, as the bearded hicks of TV's Duck Dynasty have decided to take over sponsorship of this once-prestigious bowl game. MIAMI by six
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6): Call this one the battle of defenses. Both teams have better defenses than offenses. I think Penn State has the slightly better defense, which might be enough to win the game. PENN STATE by four
Holiday Bowl: #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #23 USC Trojans (8-4): Holiday Bowls tend to be high-scoring affairs, and this one has the potential to be so. Nebraska needs to reverse the downward spiral they experienced to close the regular season. They will be counting on Ameer Abdullah to find holes in the Trojans defensive line, and QB Tommy Armstrong to thread the ball through USC's secondary. On the other side, the Trojans are counting on QB Cody Kessler and WR Nelson Agholor to be in sync and generate some long plays. Since the game is in California, the crowd will be behind the Trojans, and the Cornhuskers have a new coach. But that new coach is actually an advantage, as Mike Riley moves from Oregon State to Nebraska. Riley has seen the Trojans in action, and knows how to deal with them (despite losing to them 31-10 earlier this season). NEBRASKA by six
Mon Dec 29
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) v West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5): The Aggies have a great passing game, but no running game nor defense. The Mountaineers have a working running game, and perhaps an even better passing attack than that of the Aggies. That adds up to a Mountaineers victory to me. WEST VIRGINIA by nine
Russell Athletic Bowl: #16 Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) v Clemson Tigers (9-3): Clemson is favored, but Oklahoma played well in a fierce Big XII conference this season. Aside from the last week overtime loss to rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners lost only to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State. They have one of the best running attacks in the game, which can wear out the Clemson defense. It might be close early, but the Sooners will pull away in the fourth. OKLAHOMA by 11
Texas Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) v Texas Longhorns (6-6): Arkansas had one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing nine ranked teams. They shut out two of those, lost to Number One Alabama by one point (and held the Tide to their lowest offensive output of the season), lost to then-Number One Mississippi State by only seven, and fell to Aggies in overtime. They'd be a lock to win this game, right? Except Texas has been nearly unbeaten in the state of Texas, losing only to Baylor and TCU in their home state. The Longhorns also had three very impressive wins at the end of the season, prior to the TCU loss. The bowl selection committee looked very favorably upon Texas, and that might be the tide turner. TEXAS by six
Tues Dec 30
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v LSU Tigers (8-4): Two teams who definitely had visions of a better 2014, LSU was undone by a pathetic passing attack. They are bolstered, however, by one of the stiffest defenses in the country. The Irish have crumbled under tough defenses, and they face their toughest one all season here. LSU by 13
Belk Bowl: #9 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) v Louisville Cardinals (9-3): The records may be even, but the level of their competition was far from it. This might be the most one-sided bowl of them all. GEORGIA by 30
Santa Clara Bowl: Maryland Terrapins (7-5) v Stanford Cardinal (7-5): Nearly a home game for Stanford, they face a Maryland team who actually had a decent season in our inaugural Big Ten run. A poor defense will be Maryland's undoing, however. STANFORD by 12
Sat Dec 20
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): This Mountain West v Sun Belt match-up is often won by the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns were a pretty good team this year, and they're going to have plenty of fans in their corner, as they don't have far to travel to attend this game. Both teams are fairly even matched. They both prefer to run versus pass, and both allowed about 28 points per game this season. The difference is their non-conference performance. Nevada, with a tougher schedule, went 3-1, while the Cajuns went 1-3. Not even a bunch of friendly fans can overcome that. NEVADA by six
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State Aggies (9-4) v UTEP Miners (7-5): The Aggies spent part of the season flirting with the Top 25. They did that in strange style for the Mountain West -- on defense. The Aggies were stingy, holding most opponents to 20 points or less. They even held high-powered Colorado State to 16 points. An opening loss to Tennessee was erased by great play later in the season. Two of their losses were to ranked teams: Colorado State and Boise State. I like the Aggies in this one. UTAH STATE by 13
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (8-4) v #21 Colorado State Rams (10-2): The state of Utah will be focused on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, as both of their state schools battle in bowls. Utah had a decent season against Pac-12 opponents, and went unbeaten with a fairly easy non-conference schedule. The Rams were ignored by most national analysts, who seem to ignore any Mountain West team except Boise State. That may be the undoing of the favored Utes. The Rams are a strong team, especially through the air. They have one of the Top Ten passing attacks in the country. That may prove too much for the overtaxed Utah secondary. The best comparison between these two? How they played against common opponent Colorado. Utah won by only four, while the Rams won by fourteen. COLORADO STATE by 16
Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (9-3): A busy day for the Mountain West concludes with this fourth bowl game, as the Falcons face off against Western Michigan. Again, much of the nation ignores the MAC conference, but Air Force should not dismiss Western Michigan. After early struggles against Purdue and Virginia Tech, the Broncos buckled down and had a tremendous run until getting beaten in their final game against eventual MAC Champion Northern Illinois. They only lost by ten points, which is quite an accomplishment (just ask Bowling Green about that!). That momentum will be valuable rolling into this bowl game. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Camellia Bowl: South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) : The MAC runner-up gets no love after being thrashed by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championships, as they are relegated to this new bowl, created mostly to give the Sun Belt a third bowl game. Nice idea, but the Jaguars are horribly overmatched. BOWLING GREEN by 20
Mon Dec 22
BYU Cougars (8-4) v #19 Memphis Tigers (9-3): Who has the best defense outside of the Power Five conferences? Memphis, who has the Number Five defense in the country. Why that didn't give them national attention I do not know, but I credited their performance with a Top 25 ranking. They'll get a bowl victory, too. MEMPHIS by 16
Tues Dec 23
Boca Raton Bowl: #14 Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2): The key factor to determining a victor here is whether Marshall has gotten over their shocking overtime loss to Western Kentucky, when the Hilltoppers successfully went for a two-point conversion, that cost them their unbeaten season. They hadn't for the Conference USA Championship, barely eking out a three-point victory. Northern Illinois was not overpowering opponents, but they won steadily (with the exception of the Central Michigan upset) after their blow-out loss to Arkansas. The Huskies capped their season with a dominant win in the MAC Championship. That shows how strong the Huskies can be, and what they can do if Marshall's head isn't in the game. I'll pick the Herd, but watch out for the Huskies if Marshall isn't mentally aware. MARSHALL by four
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy Midshipmen (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): Even records, but not evenly matched. Navy concluded their season with a tough struggle against Army. Yes, the Black Knights were improved this season, but it was still a poor performance. San Diego State had some impressive games this season, and should dominate this game. SAN DIEGO STATE by 16
Wed Dec 24
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5) v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5): The Bahamas add their tropical paradise to Hawaii in the "fantasy locations" bowl duo on Christmas Eve. It pits the strong defense of the Chippewas against the powerful offense of the Hilltoppers. I usually pick the defense in such battles, but the Hilltoppers have played well in close games, which I suspect this one will be. WESTERN KENTUCKY by four
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7) v Rice Owls (7-5): Okay, I accept that any team who played in a conference championship should be given a bowl game, but to reward a team with a losing season with a trip to Hawaii? I can't see it. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, and will play tough in the first half, but I think Rice will come back to spoil the Bulldogs attempt at a non-losing season. RICE by five
Fri Dec 26
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5): Once again the bowl committee pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records. They conspire to make the Big Ten's bowl record poor. However, it may backfire in this case. Yes, Tech made it to the Conference USA Championship Game, where they lost to nearly-unbeaten Marshall by only three points, but Tech's non-conference schedule was a joke, and they still went 1-4, including losses to FCS Northwestern State (who didn't even make the FCS playoffs) and former FCS Old Dominion. Both teams have strong passing games, but Illinois' rushing game didn't appear until the end of the season. If that was a signal of things to come, they might pull out the victory. I'll pick Tech, but I'm rooting for my Illini. LOUISIANA TECH by six
Detroit Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): I think the bowl selection committee forgot that Rutgers joined the Big Ten conference this year, and paired them against a weaker team. Fine, we'll take the victory. RUTGERS by 13
St Petersburg Bowl: NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v UCF Golden Knights (9-3): It won't be a pleasant day for North Carolinians, as both of their state schools are doomed to fall to Knights. The Golden Knights have a stiff defense, and they will stymie the Wolfpack. Worse, NC State suffered from turnover problems during much of the season, and UCF is very opportunistic when it comes to forcing turnovers, and gaining points from them. UCF by 21
Sat Dec 27
Military Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6): As Ohio State can attest, never discount the Hokies. However, this was not one of their better seasons (despite the early victory over the Buckeyes). Despite the likelihood of a sea of Hokie fans (since they aren't that far from Annapolis), the Hokies will be taxed by a strong Bearcat offense. CINCINNATI by 16
Sun Bowl: #20 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (9-3): Can it the be-Deviled bowl. Duke actually has a better point differential, but that was against weaker opponents. The Sun Devils were a terror in the highly-competitive Pac-12 this season, churning out five consecutive victories after a horrible loss to UCLA back in September. ARIZONA STATE by 14
Independence Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (6-6) v South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6): Geez, I'm not even sure I care who wins this one. Neither team lived up to their expectations this season. Miami was ranked preseason, and they were supposed to contend with Florida State. An opening loss to Louisville foreshadowed a dismal season that concluded with three consecutive losses. Miami's only highlight? A dominating win over Duke. The Gamecocks took a massive step backwards defensively this season, and found they were battling for every victory. Their only dominant victories were against Furman and South Alabama. That leans me towards Miami, but I'm not sure either team will inspire me to watch the game. Certainly their sponsor keeps me away, as the bearded hicks of TV's Duck Dynasty have decided to take over sponsorship of this once-prestigious bowl game. MIAMI by six
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6): Call this one the battle of defenses. Both teams have better defenses than offenses. I think Penn State has the slightly better defense, which might be enough to win the game. PENN STATE by four
Holiday Bowl: #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #23 USC Trojans (8-4): Holiday Bowls tend to be high-scoring affairs, and this one has the potential to be so. Nebraska needs to reverse the downward spiral they experienced to close the regular season. They will be counting on Ameer Abdullah to find holes in the Trojans defensive line, and QB Tommy Armstrong to thread the ball through USC's secondary. On the other side, the Trojans are counting on QB Cody Kessler and WR Nelson Agholor to be in sync and generate some long plays. Since the game is in California, the crowd will be behind the Trojans, and the Cornhuskers have a new coach. But that new coach is actually an advantage, as Mike Riley moves from Oregon State to Nebraska. Riley has seen the Trojans in action, and knows how to deal with them (despite losing to them 31-10 earlier this season). NEBRASKA by six
Mon Dec 29
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) v West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5): The Aggies have a great passing game, but no running game nor defense. The Mountaineers have a working running game, and perhaps an even better passing attack than that of the Aggies. That adds up to a Mountaineers victory to me. WEST VIRGINIA by nine
Russell Athletic Bowl: #16 Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) v Clemson Tigers (9-3): Clemson is favored, but Oklahoma played well in a fierce Big XII conference this season. Aside from the last week overtime loss to rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners lost only to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State. They have one of the best running attacks in the game, which can wear out the Clemson defense. It might be close early, but the Sooners will pull away in the fourth. OKLAHOMA by 11
Texas Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) v Texas Longhorns (6-6): Arkansas had one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing nine ranked teams. They shut out two of those, lost to Number One Alabama by one point (and held the Tide to their lowest offensive output of the season), lost to then-Number One Mississippi State by only seven, and fell to Aggies in overtime. They'd be a lock to win this game, right? Except Texas has been nearly unbeaten in the state of Texas, losing only to Baylor and TCU in their home state. The Longhorns also had three very impressive wins at the end of the season, prior to the TCU loss. The bowl selection committee looked very favorably upon Texas, and that might be the tide turner. TEXAS by six
Tues Dec 30
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v LSU Tigers (8-4): Two teams who definitely had visions of a better 2014, LSU was undone by a pathetic passing attack. They are bolstered, however, by one of the stiffest defenses in the country. The Irish have crumbled under tough defenses, and they face their toughest one all season here. LSU by 13
Belk Bowl: #9 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) v Louisville Cardinals (9-3): The records may be even, but the level of their competition was far from it. This might be the most one-sided bowl of them all. GEORGIA by 30
Santa Clara Bowl: Maryland Terrapins (7-5) v Stanford Cardinal (7-5): Nearly a home game for Stanford, they face a Maryland team who actually had a decent season in our inaugural Big Ten run. A poor defense will be Maryland's undoing, however. STANFORD by 12
Thursday, December 11, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 15 picks
We're getting into the final weeks, so let's look at divisional races and playoff contenders.
AFC EAST: New England leads in the division with the greatest separation. The Pats win the division with a win or losses by Miami and Buffalo.
AFC NORTH: Tightest division race in the AFC, as every team still has a shot. Bengals lead by half a game, but they haven't been impressive recently. With games against Pittsburgh and Denver remaining, nine games looks to be their limit. Ravens have the easiest schedule remaining.
AFC SOUTH: Colts play Texans this week. A Colts win seals the title for them.
AFC WEST: Denver wins the title with a victory over San Diego this week.
AFC wildcards: With the lost conference record of all contenders with 8-5 or 7-6 records, the Ravens need to win their division. Pittsburgh has the best position for a wildcard berth, followed by Houston. Miami, Buffalo, San Diego, KC, Houston, and Cleveland are still in the race.
NFC EAST: Philly and Dallas are neck-and-neck, although Philly holds the tiebreaker. They face each other this week for the lead.
NFC NORTH: Green Bay leads, but Detroit is still nipping at their heels. Minnesota has no chance now.
NFC SOUTH: Even Tampa Bay is mathematically in it, although not practically. Atlanta holds tiebreaker status, but New Orleans has the easier schedule and a rematch against the Falcons.
NFC WEST: Arizona's lead is in jeopardy to Seattle. The 49ers are still mathematically in, but a loss to Seattle this week would eliminate that. The Rams don't have a chance at the title.
NFC Wildcards: Seattle and Detroit are best poised to capture playoff berths. The NFC East runner-up is also a strong contender. Rams, 49ers, and Vikings are the only other wildcard contenders.
Thursday night: Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: This game could determine Arizona's playoff fate. The Rams defense has the best two-game streak of any team in the league, and the Cards offense has been sputtering. This will be a defensive battle. The Cards defense can score points, while the Rams are best at producing stops. As such, I'll give a slight edge to Arizona, but watch out for the Rams. CARDINALS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns start Manziel, which may not be a smart idea against a division rival. That's the main reason I'm picking Cincy, although neither is likely to have a great game. BENGALS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: Green Bay will knock the Bills out of division title contention. Kyle Orton used to have decent stats against Green Bay when he was Chicago's QB, so expect that again. PACK, 34-23
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts could clinch the division at home. Nothing more really needs to be said. COLTS, 30-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Jags make most opponents look good; not that Baltimore needs it. RAVENS, 30-16
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Like the Colts, the Patriots have a chance to clinch their division at home. That's incentive enough, ignoring the fact that they play a tough division rival. PATS, 30-20
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Lots of divisional contests this week, and KC appreciates the opportunity to improve their wildcard resume. Despite two victories in recent weeks, the Raiders still have a ways to go to be a force in the league. CHIEFS, 23-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: Pittsburgh's offense has been potent recently. I don't think the Falcons can keep up, unless their defense comes up with something to stop Le'Veon Bell. The Flacons may get a late score to make the game look closer than it was, but the Steelers should rule. STEELERS, 27-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: How bad are the Bucs? Cam Newton is not playing after being involved in a car accident, and I still pick them to win. PANTHERS, 20-17
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: With all of the internal strife in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure they'll win another game, especially since they see nothing but divisional opponents. GIANTS, 26-13
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: As stated above, a Broncos victory clinches the division. The Chargers have been too inconsistent recently for me to believe they can win, although the sometimes spotty Broncos defense could five Philip Rivers and company an opening. BRONCOS, 27-24
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Finally! An opponent the Jets can beat. JETS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Teddy Bridgewater has been doing fairly well, but the Lions defense will make this game tough. LIONS, 21-17
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: With Seattle's revitalized defense and Colin Kaepernick's struggles, this game should be easy for Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were embarrassed by Seattle, so they are itching for a good game. Dallas has been avoiding their December slump, although they were stomped on Thanksgiving Day by these same Eagles. The Cowboys have a couple of extra days to prepare, but until their defense shows more effectiveness at slowing the Eagles fast-paced offense, I have to favor the Eagles. EAGLES, 27-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: The Bears typically do poorly on Monday night, and their defense is in shambles. Drew Brees should have a good game. However, the Saints defense hasn't been great recently, either, and Chicago is itching for a good game. Expect aerial antics from Jay Cutler as well. This game will have several lead changes, but I like the idea of Cutler producing a late drive when the Saints defense tires. BEARS, 30-27
AFC EAST: New England leads in the division with the greatest separation. The Pats win the division with a win or losses by Miami and Buffalo.
AFC NORTH: Tightest division race in the AFC, as every team still has a shot. Bengals lead by half a game, but they haven't been impressive recently. With games against Pittsburgh and Denver remaining, nine games looks to be their limit. Ravens have the easiest schedule remaining.
AFC SOUTH: Colts play Texans this week. A Colts win seals the title for them.
AFC WEST: Denver wins the title with a victory over San Diego this week.
AFC wildcards: With the lost conference record of all contenders with 8-5 or 7-6 records, the Ravens need to win their division. Pittsburgh has the best position for a wildcard berth, followed by Houston. Miami, Buffalo, San Diego, KC, Houston, and Cleveland are still in the race.
NFC EAST: Philly and Dallas are neck-and-neck, although Philly holds the tiebreaker. They face each other this week for the lead.
NFC NORTH: Green Bay leads, but Detroit is still nipping at their heels. Minnesota has no chance now.
NFC SOUTH: Even Tampa Bay is mathematically in it, although not practically. Atlanta holds tiebreaker status, but New Orleans has the easier schedule and a rematch against the Falcons.
NFC WEST: Arizona's lead is in jeopardy to Seattle. The 49ers are still mathematically in, but a loss to Seattle this week would eliminate that. The Rams don't have a chance at the title.
NFC Wildcards: Seattle and Detroit are best poised to capture playoff berths. The NFC East runner-up is also a strong contender. Rams, 49ers, and Vikings are the only other wildcard contenders.
Thursday night: Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: This game could determine Arizona's playoff fate. The Rams defense has the best two-game streak of any team in the league, and the Cards offense has been sputtering. This will be a defensive battle. The Cards defense can score points, while the Rams are best at producing stops. As such, I'll give a slight edge to Arizona, but watch out for the Rams. CARDINALS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns start Manziel, which may not be a smart idea against a division rival. That's the main reason I'm picking Cincy, although neither is likely to have a great game. BENGALS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: Green Bay will knock the Bills out of division title contention. Kyle Orton used to have decent stats against Green Bay when he was Chicago's QB, so expect that again. PACK, 34-23
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts could clinch the division at home. Nothing more really needs to be said. COLTS, 30-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Jags make most opponents look good; not that Baltimore needs it. RAVENS, 30-16
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Like the Colts, the Patriots have a chance to clinch their division at home. That's incentive enough, ignoring the fact that they play a tough division rival. PATS, 30-20
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Lots of divisional contests this week, and KC appreciates the opportunity to improve their wildcard resume. Despite two victories in recent weeks, the Raiders still have a ways to go to be a force in the league. CHIEFS, 23-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: Pittsburgh's offense has been potent recently. I don't think the Falcons can keep up, unless their defense comes up with something to stop Le'Veon Bell. The Flacons may get a late score to make the game look closer than it was, but the Steelers should rule. STEELERS, 27-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: How bad are the Bucs? Cam Newton is not playing after being involved in a car accident, and I still pick them to win. PANTHERS, 20-17
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: With all of the internal strife in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure they'll win another game, especially since they see nothing but divisional opponents. GIANTS, 26-13
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: As stated above, a Broncos victory clinches the division. The Chargers have been too inconsistent recently for me to believe they can win, although the sometimes spotty Broncos defense could five Philip Rivers and company an opening. BRONCOS, 27-24
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Finally! An opponent the Jets can beat. JETS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Teddy Bridgewater has been doing fairly well, but the Lions defense will make this game tough. LIONS, 21-17
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: With Seattle's revitalized defense and Colin Kaepernick's struggles, this game should be easy for Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were embarrassed by Seattle, so they are itching for a good game. Dallas has been avoiding their December slump, although they were stomped on Thanksgiving Day by these same Eagles. The Cowboys have a couple of extra days to prepare, but until their defense shows more effectiveness at slowing the Eagles fast-paced offense, I have to favor the Eagles. EAGLES, 27-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: The Bears typically do poorly on Monday night, and their defense is in shambles. Drew Brees should have a good game. However, the Saints defense hasn't been great recently, either, and Chicago is itching for a good game. Expect aerial antics from Jay Cutler as well. This game will have several lead changes, but I like the idea of Cutler producing a late drive when the Saints defense tires. BEARS, 30-27
NFL 2014 Week 14 Power Rankings
No takeaways this week, as I was away for the weekend and watched only one game -- Seattle's win over Philly.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) [1] : Without a doubt the strongest and most dominant team in the league
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3) [2] : The best offense in the league. Aaron Rodgers is starting to have fans say, "Brett Who?"
3. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : Looks like they'll be the second seed in the AFC
4. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [5] : Second best offense, but defense could use a little work
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [7] : Speaking of defense, we have one of the best here
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) [6] : This defense has toughened, making Seattle a viable contender again
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [3] : Their offense got crushed by Seattle's revitalized defense
8. Arizona Cardinals (10-3) [8] : They aborted their losing streak, but they weren't impressive doing it
9. Dallas Cowboys (9-4) [12] : This could be the year they break the December curse
10. Detroit Lions (9-4) [13]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : The resurgence of Seattle and Arizona's return to winning ways helped boost this division. The Rams shutout helped, too.
2. AFC North [3] : Close on their heels, this division continues to have no team with a losing record, although Cleveland is starting to get there
3. AFC East [1] : Only New England won this week
4. NFC North [4] : Once again this week, everyone won except the Bears
5. AFC West [4] : Oakland won, but losses by San Diego and KC hurt them
6. NFC East [6] : Philly's fall to Seattle hurt, as did Washington's shutout
7. AFC South [7] : Houston impressed, but it was against Jacksonville
8. NFC South [8] : They're going to take a playoff spot away from a deserving team
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) [1] : Without a doubt the strongest and most dominant team in the league
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3) [2] : The best offense in the league. Aaron Rodgers is starting to have fans say, "Brett Who?"
3. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : Looks like they'll be the second seed in the AFC
4. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [5] : Second best offense, but defense could use a little work
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [7] : Speaking of defense, we have one of the best here
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) [6] : This defense has toughened, making Seattle a viable contender again
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [3] : Their offense got crushed by Seattle's revitalized defense
8. Arizona Cardinals (10-3) [8] : They aborted their losing streak, but they weren't impressive doing it
9. Dallas Cowboys (9-4) [12] : This could be the year they break the December curse
10. Detroit Lions (9-4) [13]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : The resurgence of Seattle and Arizona's return to winning ways helped boost this division. The Rams shutout helped, too.
2. AFC North [3] : Close on their heels, this division continues to have no team with a losing record, although Cleveland is starting to get there
3. AFC East [1] : Only New England won this week
4. NFC North [4] : Once again this week, everyone won except the Bears
5. AFC West [4] : Oakland won, but losses by San Diego and KC hurt them
6. NFC East [6] : Philly's fall to Seattle hurt, as did Washington's shutout
7. AFC South [7] : Houston impressed, but it was against Jacksonville
8. NFC South [8] : They're going to take a playoff spot away from a deserving team
Monday, December 8, 2014
NCAA 2014 Final regular season Top 25
Most of the games turned out as I expected, although I didn't figure Oklahoma State would beat Oklahoma. I don't anyone expected the Buckeyes defense to shut down the highly-effective running game of Wisconsin, shutting them out 59-0. With all of the talk about how Ohio State was done for when JT Barrett went down to injury, the Buekeyes instead earned a playoff spot despite victories by both Baylor and TCU.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-1) [1] : Clear SEC winner has top playoff seed
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [3] : Crushed Wisconsin to capture the Big Ten crown and a playoff spot
3. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [2] : Nearly lost again, although this time they didn't have to come from behind -- it's Georgia Tech who excelled in the fourth quarter
4. TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) [4]
5. Oregon Ducks (12-1) [5]
6. Baylor Bears (11-1) [6]
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [7]
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [9]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [12]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) [10]
11. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [13]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) [8]
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
14. Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) [18]
15. Boise State Broncos (11-2) [19]
16. Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) [14]
17. Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) [15]
18. Arizona Wildcats (10-3) [11]
19. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [20]
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) [21]
21. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [23]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [22]
23. USC Trojans (8-4) [24]
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2) [29]
25. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [17]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Louisville Cardinals (9-3), UCF Golden Knights (9-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4), LSU Tigers (8-4), UCLA Bruins (9-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-1) [1] : Clear SEC winner has top playoff seed
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [3] : Crushed Wisconsin to capture the Big Ten crown and a playoff spot
3. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [2] : Nearly lost again, although this time they didn't have to come from behind -- it's Georgia Tech who excelled in the fourth quarter
4. TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) [4]
5. Oregon Ducks (12-1) [5]
6. Baylor Bears (11-1) [6]
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [7]
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [9]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [12]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) [10]
11. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [13]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) [8]
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
14. Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) [18]
15. Boise State Broncos (11-2) [19]
16. Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) [14]
17. Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) [15]
18. Arizona Wildcats (10-3) [11]
19. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [20]
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) [21]
21. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [23]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [22]
23. USC Trojans (8-4) [24]
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2) [29]
25. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [17]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Louisville Cardinals (9-3), UCF Golden Knights (9-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4), LSU Tigers (8-4), UCLA Bruins (9-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Thursday, December 4, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 13 Power Rankings and Week 14 picks
No news or takeaways this week; it's a busy time of year for me as a college professor.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3) [1] : Despite losing to Green Bay, they still have the best body of work this season
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3) [2] : Their defeat of the Patriots seals them as the strongest NFC team
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) [6] : Huge win over Dallas makes Philly a threat
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [4] : Still a strong team, but consistency is a bit of a problem
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [7] : Offense had a field day against Washington
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) [9] : Moving back up
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) [5] : Another close loss
8. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) [3] : Two losses in a row with Stanton under center. Even I'm beginning to worry
9. Miami Dolphins (7-5) [11] : Close call against the lowly Jets
10. Buffalo Bills (7-5) [13] : Quality win against Cleveland brings the Bills into the Top Ten
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC East [3] : Despite New England's loss, Buffalo's impressive win propels them to first place, although the gap is small
2. NFC West [2] : Seattle is looking better, but the Cards are falling
3. AFC North [1] : The division did not look good this week.
4 (tie). AFC West [4] : Denver and San Diego did well, but Oakland embarrassed
4 (tie). NFC North [6] : Impressive wins by everyone except Chicago
6. NFC East [5] : Whither Dallas, and the Giants got skunked by Jacksonville
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Jacksonville won, but Indy remains the best team in this division
8. NFC South [8] : The two leaders won, but this division remains rancid
Thursday night: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: The Bears tend to play well on Thursday night, and the Cowboys have collapsed in December in recent years. I really should go for the upset here, but I'll pick the favored Cowboys, albeit not by much. COWBOYS, 27-24
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: This was actually a tough game to pick. The Ravens have a better margin of victory, but both teams have a stiff defense supported by a talented offense. This will likely be a close game, and I often favor the home team or the team with the stiffer defense. In this case, those are not the same team. I'll pick Baltimore's defense here, but Miami could pull this one out. RAVENS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans' offense should overwhelm the struggling Carolina defense, giving them a temporary half-game lead in the NFC South. SAINTS, 30-23
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their second game of the season last week, but they won't win two in a row. TEXANS, 27-13
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: The worst thing Cleveland could have done was pick Johnny Manziel to start. Yes, he scored a touchdown on his first possession last week, mainly because the Bills defense wasn't ready for him. Notice how well they adjusted for his next drive. The Colts defense will be expecting him. He'll pull out some surprises, but he'll also throw at least one interception -- it's what he does. COLTS, 31-20
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: The Giants have something to prove after allowing Jacksonville the opportunity to take the lead TWICE late in the fourth quarter last week. They'll play tougher this week, and get past the sputtering Titans. GIANTS, 27-23
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: The Jets' struggles are well-known. More than one national analyst is starting to consider them the worst team in the league. They're not there yet (so long as Oakland continues to flounder), but they definitely contend for the dubious honor. VIKINGS, 24-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both of these teams suffer from inconsistency. You're never sure which team will show up: the talented one, or the mistake-prone one. Since the Bengals are at home, I think the talented group will appear just long enough to win this game. BENGALS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are suffering internally, as RGIII no longer trusts his coaches and they no longer trust him. They're putting Colt McCoy back under center, but that's not much better. The Rams are a good team, and will carve up the less-than-sterling McCoy. RAMS, 23-16
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: The Bucs are another team competing with Oakland for "worst team in the league" title. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Buffalo's defense will slow the Broncos, but they aren't good enough to slow them that much. BRONCOS, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. If that continues, KC is good enough to pull off the win. I think the Cards' defense will slow them enough, but the Chiefs will make this a closer game than it should be. CARDINALS, 24-23
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: The 49ers get a chance to catch up to Seattle as they play the bumbling Raiders. 49ERS, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: Seattle, on the other hand, has the daunting task of slowing one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Tough task. EAGLES, 30-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: The Patriots want to bounce back from their loss to the Packers. They should do it, but Philip Rivers and company will make it tough. PATS, 30-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: The Pack continue their NFC dominance over a struggling Falcons team, giving the Saints a one-game lead in the NFC South. PACK, 31-24
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3) [1] : Despite losing to Green Bay, they still have the best body of work this season
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3) [2] : Their defeat of the Patriots seals them as the strongest NFC team
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) [6] : Huge win over Dallas makes Philly a threat
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [4] : Still a strong team, but consistency is a bit of a problem
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [7] : Offense had a field day against Washington
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) [9] : Moving back up
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) [5] : Another close loss
8. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) [3] : Two losses in a row with Stanton under center. Even I'm beginning to worry
9. Miami Dolphins (7-5) [11] : Close call against the lowly Jets
10. Buffalo Bills (7-5) [13] : Quality win against Cleveland brings the Bills into the Top Ten
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC East [3] : Despite New England's loss, Buffalo's impressive win propels them to first place, although the gap is small
2. NFC West [2] : Seattle is looking better, but the Cards are falling
3. AFC North [1] : The division did not look good this week.
4 (tie). AFC West [4] : Denver and San Diego did well, but Oakland embarrassed
4 (tie). NFC North [6] : Impressive wins by everyone except Chicago
6. NFC East [5] : Whither Dallas, and the Giants got skunked by Jacksonville
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Jacksonville won, but Indy remains the best team in this division
8. NFC South [8] : The two leaders won, but this division remains rancid
Thursday night: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: The Bears tend to play well on Thursday night, and the Cowboys have collapsed in December in recent years. I really should go for the upset here, but I'll pick the favored Cowboys, albeit not by much. COWBOYS, 27-24
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: This was actually a tough game to pick. The Ravens have a better margin of victory, but both teams have a stiff defense supported by a talented offense. This will likely be a close game, and I often favor the home team or the team with the stiffer defense. In this case, those are not the same team. I'll pick Baltimore's defense here, but Miami could pull this one out. RAVENS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans' offense should overwhelm the struggling Carolina defense, giving them a temporary half-game lead in the NFC South. SAINTS, 30-23
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their second game of the season last week, but they won't win two in a row. TEXANS, 27-13
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: The worst thing Cleveland could have done was pick Johnny Manziel to start. Yes, he scored a touchdown on his first possession last week, mainly because the Bills defense wasn't ready for him. Notice how well they adjusted for his next drive. The Colts defense will be expecting him. He'll pull out some surprises, but he'll also throw at least one interception -- it's what he does. COLTS, 31-20
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: The Giants have something to prove after allowing Jacksonville the opportunity to take the lead TWICE late in the fourth quarter last week. They'll play tougher this week, and get past the sputtering Titans. GIANTS, 27-23
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: The Jets' struggles are well-known. More than one national analyst is starting to consider them the worst team in the league. They're not there yet (so long as Oakland continues to flounder), but they definitely contend for the dubious honor. VIKINGS, 24-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both of these teams suffer from inconsistency. You're never sure which team will show up: the talented one, or the mistake-prone one. Since the Bengals are at home, I think the talented group will appear just long enough to win this game. BENGALS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are suffering internally, as RGIII no longer trusts his coaches and they no longer trust him. They're putting Colt McCoy back under center, but that's not much better. The Rams are a good team, and will carve up the less-than-sterling McCoy. RAMS, 23-16
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: The Bucs are another team competing with Oakland for "worst team in the league" title. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Buffalo's defense will slow the Broncos, but they aren't good enough to slow them that much. BRONCOS, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. If that continues, KC is good enough to pull off the win. I think the Cards' defense will slow them enough, but the Chiefs will make this a closer game than it should be. CARDINALS, 24-23
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: The 49ers get a chance to catch up to Seattle as they play the bumbling Raiders. 49ERS, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: Seattle, on the other hand, has the daunting task of slowing one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Tough task. EAGLES, 30-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: The Patriots want to bounce back from their loss to the Packers. They should do it, but Philip Rivers and company will make it tough. PATS, 30-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: The Pack continue their NFC dominance over a struggling Falcons team, giving the Saints a one-game lead in the NFC South. PACK, 31-24
Sunday, November 30, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 14 results, Top 25, and Week 15 picks
I'm stuffing a lot into this post (appropriate for Thanksgiving weekend), as we conclude Rivalry Week and prepare for the final regular season week of college football. As expected in Rivalry Week, there were upsets and unexpected results. Western Kentucky spoiled Marshall's perfect season by successfully going for a two-point conversion in the first overtime period, beating them 67-66. Stanford demolished UCLA. Pitt shocked Miami to become bowl eligible. Air Force upset Colorado State, and Georgia Tech intercepted Georgia in overtime to seal their victory.
Some teams fought hard, even if they didn't win. Kentucky swapped leads with Louisville, who eventually won 44-40. Other surprises involved games expected to be close, which were major blowouts: Louisiana Tech over Rice, NC State over North Carolina, and Ole Miss over Mississippi State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1) [1] : Took over the game in the second half to knock off Auburn
2. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another close victory, and Jameis Winston throw four interceptions. They won't succeed against tough defenses
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [5] : Big win over rival Michigan, but lost QB JT Barrett. Everyone is signing their death warrant now, but the Buckeyes scored two touchdowns after Barrett left the game. They are still dangerous.
4. TCU Horned Frogs (10-1) [6] : Huge win over Texas
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [7] : Overpowered Oregon State
6. Baylor Bears (10-1) [4] : Nearly lost to Texas Tech
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [10] : Huge win for Sparty
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) [9] : Minnesota hung in, but Wisconsin won the right to face Ohio State
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [3] : Destroyed by Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) [11] : Great defeat of in-state rival
11. Arizona Wildcats (10-2) [12] : Won the right to face Oregon
12. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [8] : Fell to Tech
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [15] : Dominating victory over Miss St to conclude the season
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [14]
15. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [17]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
17. Missouri Tigers (10-2) [18] : Great win to send them to the SEC Championship Game on momentuim
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1) [13] : Unbeaten season is gone
19. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [24] : Thoroughly dominant over strong Utah State team
20. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [23]
21. Arizona State Wildcats (9-3) [19]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [21]
23. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [22]
24. USC Trojans (8-4) [27]
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) [NR]
Dropped out: UCLA Bruins [#20], Louisville Cardinals [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4, LSU Tigers (8-4), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Before I get into the picks, let's look at the conferences without championship games, and see how their races are going:
American Athletic: Memphis has at least a share of the title. If UCF beats East Carolina, they have a share. If East Carolina wins, Memphis wins outright.
Big XII: If Baylor beats Kansas State, they win the title. If Baylor loses, TCU gets it (so long as they beat Iowa State). If by some weird chance both TCU and Baylor lose, then Kansas State is Big XII Champion.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won
Non-Championship Games:
Thurs Dec 4
UCF Golden Knights at East Carolina Pirates: As stated above, UCF is battling for a share of the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina would love to play spoiler, and I think they have the defense to do it. EAST CAROLINA by four
Sat Dec 6
Iowa State Cyclones at #4 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU should win easily. They need a huge victory to impress the playoff selection committee. TCU by 27
#15 Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Baylor Bears The TCU game will be long complete when this game kicks off, so K State will know if they have a chance at the title. I don't think they will, so without that incentive they won't play as hard. BAYLOR by 13
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #14 Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma is playing for nothing more than a good bowl, but that's incentive enough against their in-state rival. OKLAHOMA by 20
Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincy should win, even though they can't get a share of the title if they do. CINCY by 16
Championship games:
MAC Championship: Bowling Green Falcons v Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois is certainly the stronger team, but surprises often happen in this conference's championship. I'll stick with the Huskies, though. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Conference USA Championship: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v #18 Marshall Thundering Herd: Marshall's chance at an unbeaten season has been wiped out, but they still want the respect they didn't get all season. A big win here will go a long way to getting that. MARSHALL by 26
Mountain West Championship: Fresno State Bulldogs v #19 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State made the championships because their division is weak. More so than the SEC, this conference has two divisions at entirely different power levels. BOISE STATE by 24
Pac-12 Championship: #11 Arizona Wildcats v #5 Oregon Ducks: Oregon knows that a victory leads to a spot in the playoffs. Arizona can be tricky. They are also the only team to have already beaten the Ducks this season. Can they make it two in a row? Maybe, but I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by eight
Big Ten Championship: #8 Wisconsin Badgers v #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Most people are writing off Ohio State, but they scored twice after JT Barrett went down with injury. The strategy here is for Ohio State's defense to slow the running game of Wisconsin. If they can force Stave to throw, they can stop drives and even generate turnovers. Stave is not a great quarterback, and is prone to bad judgement when he is rushed. The Buckeyes could win, even with their third string quarterback, under those circumstances. It is tough to slow down the Badgers' running attack, though, so I'll favor them by a slight margin. WISCONSIN by six
ACC Championship: #2 Florida State Seminoles v #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Here is my first real upset in these championships. Florida State has sputtered during most the season. The past two weeks their "second half magic" has been lacking, too. Georgia Tech has a strong enough defense to disrupt the inconsistent Jameis Winston. The Seminoles didn't face the Yellow Jackets during the regular season, so they don't know what they are getting. GEORGIA TECH by ten
SEC Championship: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #17 Missouri Tigers: Missouri is a tough team, but Alabama is tougher. ALABAMA by 17
Some teams fought hard, even if they didn't win. Kentucky swapped leads with Louisville, who eventually won 44-40. Other surprises involved games expected to be close, which were major blowouts: Louisiana Tech over Rice, NC State over North Carolina, and Ole Miss over Mississippi State.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1) [1] : Took over the game in the second half to knock off Auburn
2. Florida State Seminoles (12-0) [2] : Another close victory, and Jameis Winston throw four interceptions. They won't succeed against tough defenses
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [5] : Big win over rival Michigan, but lost QB JT Barrett. Everyone is signing their death warrant now, but the Buckeyes scored two touchdowns after Barrett left the game. They are still dangerous.
4. TCU Horned Frogs (10-1) [6] : Huge win over Texas
5. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [7] : Overpowered Oregon State
6. Baylor Bears (10-1) [4] : Nearly lost to Texas Tech
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [10] : Huge win for Sparty
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2) [9] : Minnesota hung in, but Wisconsin won the right to face Ohio State
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [3] : Destroyed by Ole Miss
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2) [11] : Great defeat of in-state rival
11. Arizona Wildcats (10-2) [12] : Won the right to face Oregon
12. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [8] : Fell to Tech
13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [15] : Dominating victory over Miss St to conclude the season
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [14]
15. Kansas State Wildcats (9-2) [17]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
17. Missouri Tigers (10-2) [18] : Great win to send them to the SEC Championship Game on momentuim
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1) [13] : Unbeaten season is gone
19. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [24] : Thoroughly dominant over strong Utah State team
20. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [23]
21. Arizona State Wildcats (9-3) [19]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [21]
23. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [22]
24. USC Trojans (8-4) [27]
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-3) [NR]
Dropped out: UCLA Bruins [#20], Louisville Cardinals [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4, LSU Tigers (8-4), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Before I get into the picks, let's look at the conferences without championship games, and see how their races are going:
American Athletic: Memphis has at least a share of the title. If UCF beats East Carolina, they have a share. If East Carolina wins, Memphis wins outright.
Big XII: If Baylor beats Kansas State, they win the title. If Baylor loses, TCU gets it (so long as they beat Iowa State). If by some weird chance both TCU and Baylor lose, then Kansas State is Big XII Champion.
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won
Non-Championship Games:
Thurs Dec 4
UCF Golden Knights at East Carolina Pirates: As stated above, UCF is battling for a share of the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina would love to play spoiler, and I think they have the defense to do it. EAST CAROLINA by four
Sat Dec 6
Iowa State Cyclones at #4 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU should win easily. They need a huge victory to impress the playoff selection committee. TCU by 27
#15 Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Baylor Bears The TCU game will be long complete when this game kicks off, so K State will know if they have a chance at the title. I don't think they will, so without that incentive they won't play as hard. BAYLOR by 13
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #14 Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma is playing for nothing more than a good bowl, but that's incentive enough against their in-state rival. OKLAHOMA by 20
Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats: Cincy should win, even though they can't get a share of the title if they do. CINCY by 16
Championship games:
MAC Championship: Bowling Green Falcons v Northern Illinois Huskies: Northern Illinois is certainly the stronger team, but surprises often happen in this conference's championship. I'll stick with the Huskies, though. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Conference USA Championship: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v #18 Marshall Thundering Herd: Marshall's chance at an unbeaten season has been wiped out, but they still want the respect they didn't get all season. A big win here will go a long way to getting that. MARSHALL by 26
Mountain West Championship: Fresno State Bulldogs v #19 Boise State Broncos: Fresno State made the championships because their division is weak. More so than the SEC, this conference has two divisions at entirely different power levels. BOISE STATE by 24
Pac-12 Championship: #11 Arizona Wildcats v #5 Oregon Ducks: Oregon knows that a victory leads to a spot in the playoffs. Arizona can be tricky. They are also the only team to have already beaten the Ducks this season. Can they make it two in a row? Maybe, but I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by eight
Big Ten Championship: #8 Wisconsin Badgers v #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Most people are writing off Ohio State, but they scored twice after JT Barrett went down with injury. The strategy here is for Ohio State's defense to slow the running game of Wisconsin. If they can force Stave to throw, they can stop drives and even generate turnovers. Stave is not a great quarterback, and is prone to bad judgement when he is rushed. The Buckeyes could win, even with their third string quarterback, under those circumstances. It is tough to slow down the Badgers' running attack, though, so I'll favor them by a slight margin. WISCONSIN by six
ACC Championship: #2 Florida State Seminoles v #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Here is my first real upset in these championships. Florida State has sputtered during most the season. The past two weeks their "second half magic" has been lacking, too. Georgia Tech has a strong enough defense to disrupt the inconsistent Jameis Winston. The Seminoles didn't face the Yellow Jackets during the regular season, so they don't know what they are getting. GEORGIA TECH by ten
SEC Championship: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide v #17 Missouri Tigers: Missouri is a tough team, but Alabama is tougher. ALABAMA by 17
Thursday, November 27, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 13 picks
This is the weekend that indicates the start of the home stretch of the NFL season -- Thanksgiving weekend.
Thanksgiving games
Strangely, all of the Thanksgiving Day games are divisional match-ups.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: A few years ago, when Detroit was playing poorly, there was talk about taking the Thanksgiving Game away from them. Now the Lions are one of the top teams in the NFC. They come into this game on a two-game losing streak, while the Bears, openly reviled earlier in the season, come in with a two-game winning streak. Will each of them extend to three games? As much as I love the Bears, I have to figure that the Lions will win this contest. LIONS, 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has a great history of winning on Thanksgiving Day, but the Eagles have the chance to put that in jeopardy. The Eagles offense can't be stopped, but only slowed. They may have slowed themselves, as Mark Sanchez is proving to hamper the effectiveness of that offense. Combine that with the excellent year of DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead in the NFC East. COWBOYS, 28-27
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: NBC gains a Thanksgiving night game as these teams, both of whom have been disappointing at times during this season, face off for second place in the competitive NFC West. Seattle usually plays worse at home than on the road, but recent weeks have seen some great road games. The 49ers offense has been off recently, while the Seahawks seem to be finally on track. Like the Seahawks' chances, but I will pick the home team. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater is improving, while the Panthers continue to struggle. The Vikings are having a tough year, but I like their chances to win this one. VIKINGS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Bucs Speaking of tough years, that describes the Bucs perfectly. The Bengals have had an up and down, but his will be an "up" week. BENGALS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: This will be a close contest. The difference might be Kyle Orton, the new Bills quarterback. He has breathed life back into the team, and he's putting up good numbers. Brian Hoyer started the season strongly, but he's been pedestrian lately. BILLS, 21-20
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Saints are in freefall, while the Steelers had a bye week to prepare. STEELERS, 26-23
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey, the Giants may have found an opponent they can beat! The Jags have shown some life recently, even if they can't quite win, so it may be closer than Giants fans would like. GIANTS, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at St Louis Rams: The Raiders are finding some life, but the Rams are too good for them. Both of them suffer on defense, but the Rams offense is functioning better. RAMS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens definitely have this one in the bag. The Chargers may get a last minute touchdown to make the score look close, but the game won't be that close. RAVENS, 24-21
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Houston can even their record with a victory here. They should get it, as the Titans are in a state of disarray. TEXANS, 24-17
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: I would have picked the Colts regardless of the quarterback. With Colt McCoy under center, this is a sure victory for Indy. COLTS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: The Cards were shut down last week, so they have plenty of incentive to show off their offense. With Atlanta's sputtering defense, they will get the chance. CARDINALS, 24-20
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: Expect an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense is a little stronger than Green Bay's, but the game is at Lambeau. This game could go either way, but I like how Belichick and company prepare for the mighty opponents. I'll give a slight edge to the Patriots. PATRIOTS, 31-27
Sunday night: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have a good defense, but not quite good enough to hold back Peyton Manning and the Broncos. It'll be a close game, though, which means the Broncos may force some plays. If they commit a late turnover, the Chiefs could win, but I'll stick with the Broncos. BRONCOS, 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Typically you can throw out the records when these two meet, as they get ultra-competitive. However, Geno Smith is back under center. Given his propensity for turnovers, and the Dolphins opportunistic defense, this game won't be close. DOLPHINS, 27-13
Thanksgiving games
Strangely, all of the Thanksgiving Day games are divisional match-ups.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: A few years ago, when Detroit was playing poorly, there was talk about taking the Thanksgiving Game away from them. Now the Lions are one of the top teams in the NFC. They come into this game on a two-game losing streak, while the Bears, openly reviled earlier in the season, come in with a two-game winning streak. Will each of them extend to three games? As much as I love the Bears, I have to figure that the Lions will win this contest. LIONS, 27-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has a great history of winning on Thanksgiving Day, but the Eagles have the chance to put that in jeopardy. The Eagles offense can't be stopped, but only slowed. They may have slowed themselves, as Mark Sanchez is proving to hamper the effectiveness of that offense. Combine that with the excellent year of DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys have a chance to take the lead in the NFC East. COWBOYS, 28-27
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: NBC gains a Thanksgiving night game as these teams, both of whom have been disappointing at times during this season, face off for second place in the competitive NFC West. Seattle usually plays worse at home than on the road, but recent weeks have seen some great road games. The 49ers offense has been off recently, while the Seahawks seem to be finally on track. Like the Seahawks' chances, but I will pick the home team. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater is improving, while the Panthers continue to struggle. The Vikings are having a tough year, but I like their chances to win this one. VIKINGS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Bucs Speaking of tough years, that describes the Bucs perfectly. The Bengals have had an up and down, but his will be an "up" week. BENGALS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: This will be a close contest. The difference might be Kyle Orton, the new Bills quarterback. He has breathed life back into the team, and he's putting up good numbers. Brian Hoyer started the season strongly, but he's been pedestrian lately. BILLS, 21-20
New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Saints are in freefall, while the Steelers had a bye week to prepare. STEELERS, 26-23
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: Hey, the Giants may have found an opponent they can beat! The Jags have shown some life recently, even if they can't quite win, so it may be closer than Giants fans would like. GIANTS, 23-20
Oakland Raiders at St Louis Rams: The Raiders are finding some life, but the Rams are too good for them. Both of them suffer on defense, but the Rams offense is functioning better. RAMS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens definitely have this one in the bag. The Chargers may get a last minute touchdown to make the score look close, but the game won't be that close. RAVENS, 24-21
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Houston can even their record with a victory here. They should get it, as the Titans are in a state of disarray. TEXANS, 24-17
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: I would have picked the Colts regardless of the quarterback. With Colt McCoy under center, this is a sure victory for Indy. COLTS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: The Cards were shut down last week, so they have plenty of incentive to show off their offense. With Atlanta's sputtering defense, they will get the chance. CARDINALS, 24-20
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: Expect an offensive explosion. The Patriots defense is a little stronger than Green Bay's, but the game is at Lambeau. This game could go either way, but I like how Belichick and company prepare for the mighty opponents. I'll give a slight edge to the Patriots. PATRIOTS, 31-27
Sunday night: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have a good defense, but not quite good enough to hold back Peyton Manning and the Broncos. It'll be a close game, though, which means the Broncos may force some plays. If they commit a late turnover, the Chiefs could win, but I'll stick with the Broncos. BRONCOS, 27-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Typically you can throw out the records when these two meet, as they get ultra-competitive. However, Geno Smith is back under center. Given his propensity for turnovers, and the Dolphins opportunistic defense, this game won't be close. DOLPHINS, 27-13
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 12 news and Power Rankings
This week's takeaways:
1. Nobody is playing better than New England right now. They thoroughly trashed the Lions, and totally dominated all phases of the game. They do it by rotating stars, as they haven't had two consecutive games this season where the same player has been the leading rusher.
2. There were many last minute lead changes in the league this week. Lesson: never count any team out
3. Something really needs to be done about the NFC South. With both Atlanta and New Orleans losing this week, the division leaders have 4-7 records. That means if they each lose just ONE more game, the best the division winner can finish would be 8-8; 7-9 is more likely. In fact, it's possible for the division winner to be 6-10, which would be the first time a team with double-digit losses to make the playoffs. Maybe it's time for the league to say, "This division is not playoff caliber," and give that spot to a more deserving NFC team.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) [2] : Clearly the most dominating team in the league right now
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3) [3] : The second best offense in the league right now, and a dominating team in their right, although Minnesota scored a lot
3. Arizona Cardinals (9-2) [1] : Burned by the defending Super Bowl champs
4. Denver Broncos (8-3) [4] : Had to come from behind, but they showed the Dolphins defense has holes. Their defense needs work, though.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) [6] : Strongest of the AFC North, yet in last place due to division record
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) [7] : Despite some sputtering by Mark Sanchez, this offense keeps rolling
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Bounced back from their thrashing at the hands of the Patriots, but they did play Jacksonville, after all
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [8] : Not a strong victory, and let the Giants back into the game, but they keep pace with the Eagles
9. Seattle Seahawks (7-4) [12] : Dominant road victory over the former Number One team bounces Seattle back into the Top Ten
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) [5] : Lost to previously unbeaten Oakland
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : All the teams have seven wins. Epitome of parity
2. NFC West [3] : With Seattle and San Francisco winning again, this division is rising
3. AFC East [5] : Buffalo and New England had dominant wins
4. AFC West [2] : Both Denver and San Diego had to engineer fourth-quarter comebacks
5. NFC East [6] : The gap between the two leaders and the rest of the division is growing
6. NFC North [4] : With Detroit's huge loss, Green Bay is the only team with a positive difference between points scored and points allowed
7. AFC South [7] : The Colts are pulling away, and are the only winning team in the division
8. NFC South [8] : Leaders with 4-7 records? This is pathetic
1. Nobody is playing better than New England right now. They thoroughly trashed the Lions, and totally dominated all phases of the game. They do it by rotating stars, as they haven't had two consecutive games this season where the same player has been the leading rusher.
2. There were many last minute lead changes in the league this week. Lesson: never count any team out
3. Something really needs to be done about the NFC South. With both Atlanta and New Orleans losing this week, the division leaders have 4-7 records. That means if they each lose just ONE more game, the best the division winner can finish would be 8-8; 7-9 is more likely. In fact, it's possible for the division winner to be 6-10, which would be the first time a team with double-digit losses to make the playoffs. Maybe it's time for the league to say, "This division is not playoff caliber," and give that spot to a more deserving NFC team.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) [2] : Clearly the most dominating team in the league right now
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3) [3] : The second best offense in the league right now, and a dominating team in their right, although Minnesota scored a lot
3. Arizona Cardinals (9-2) [1] : Burned by the defending Super Bowl champs
4. Denver Broncos (8-3) [4] : Had to come from behind, but they showed the Dolphins defense has holes. Their defense needs work, though.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4) [6] : Strongest of the AFC North, yet in last place due to division record
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) [7] : Despite some sputtering by Mark Sanchez, this offense keeps rolling
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Bounced back from their thrashing at the hands of the Patriots, but they did play Jacksonville, after all
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [8] : Not a strong victory, and let the Giants back into the game, but they keep pace with the Eagles
9. Seattle Seahawks (7-4) [12] : Dominant road victory over the former Number One team bounces Seattle back into the Top Ten
10. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) [5] : Lost to previously unbeaten Oakland
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : All the teams have seven wins. Epitome of parity
2. NFC West [3] : With Seattle and San Francisco winning again, this division is rising
3. AFC East [5] : Buffalo and New England had dominant wins
4. AFC West [2] : Both Denver and San Diego had to engineer fourth-quarter comebacks
5. NFC East [6] : The gap between the two leaders and the rest of the division is growing
6. NFC North [4] : With Detroit's huge loss, Green Bay is the only team with a positive difference between points scored and points allowed
7. AFC South [7] : The Colts are pulling away, and are the only winning team in the division
8. NFC South [8] : Leaders with 4-7 records? This is pathetic
Sunday, November 23, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 14 title races and picks
American Athletic: Memphis retains their half-game lead, and they have the tiebreaker over Cincy. If they beat UConn, they at least share the title with UCF, and given their higher ranking, would represent the conference. UCF has a tougher road, facing both South Florida and East Carolina.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech won the right to face Florida State
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins
Big Ten West: The winner of this week's Wisconsin - Minnesota game wins the division
Big XII: 3-way tie for the lead among Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State. TCU has the easiest schedule, but Baylor controls their destiny. They previously beat TCU and close the season against Kansas State. If Baylor wins out, they win the conference. K State needs a TCU loss (who previously beat the Wildcats) and a win over Baylor. TCU needs to win out and hope K State beats Baylor.
Conference USA East: Marshall
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech's loss to Old Dominion means they need to beat Rice to win the division. If Rice wins, they play Marshall
MAC East: Bowling Green has won the division
MAC West: Toledo beat Bowling Green to maintain the 3-way race for this title. If Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, they win the division, having previously beaten Toledo. Toledo needs a win and a Western Michigan win, as the Rockets previously beat the Broncos. Western Michigan needs to beat Northern Illinois and hope Toledo loses.
Mountain West Mountain: If Boise State beats Utah State, they win the division. If the Aggies win and the Rams win, the Rams capture the title. The Aggies need a Rams loss and a victory over Boise State.
Mountain West West: Fresno State and San Diego State lead. Since the Bulldogs previously beat the Aztecs, Fresno State wins the division with a victory over Hawaii. San Diego State needs Hawaii to beat the Bulldogs while they take care of San Jose State. Losses by both of these teams makes the division title messy.
Pac-12 North: Oregon
Pac-12 South: UCLA wins the title if they beat Stanford, as they previously beat both Arizona and Arizona State. If Stanford upsets UCLA, the winner of the Battle for Arizona wins the division.
SEC East: If Missouri wins, they capture the division. A Tiger loss gives the title to Georgia
SEC West: Alabama has won the title
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won the title
Tues Nov 25
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio wants the win to be bowl-eiligible, although I don't think they'll be chosen for a bowl anyway. OHIO by 10
Thurs Nov 27
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns: TCU shouldn't have much trouble beating Texas, but winning the Big XII is a tougher challenge. TCU by 24
LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Thanksgiving evening used to be the Texas - Texas A&M game. Now that those two teams are in separate conferences, they have split up and each play a conference opponent on Thanksgiving. The Aggies may have the better shot at winning. Both they and LSU have 7-4 records, although LSU has been more impressive in their victories. I give LSU the nod, but Texas A&M could win. LSU by nine
Fri Nov 28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: Will Marshall rest their starters in preparation of the Conference USA Championship? After all, they know that an unbeaten record gives them no chance to play in the playoffs. If they rest them, Western Kentucky has the talent to win. However, I think Marshall has something to prove, and that unbeaten record is important to them. MARSHALL by 20
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Nebraska has lost two games in a row. Minnesota played them closer than Wisconsin, but the Huskers are definitely slipping. Iowa might beat them, but the Hawkeyes haven't exactly been cruising recently either. NEBRASKA by six
Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Missouri Tigers: Arkansas has shut out two opponents in a row, but I don't think they'll make it three. Arkansas might win, but Missouri needs this victory to capture the SEC East title, so that should be incentive enough to win, even if it takes a late score. MISSOURI by four
Stanford Cardinal at #20 UCLA Bruins: It's simple for UCLA -- they win, they capture the division title. Stanford would love to play spoiler, but I don't think their defense is good enough this year to do it. UCLA by six
#22 Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons: The Rams are 10-1 and still need Utah State to upset Boise in order to capture the division title. The Rams will do their part by grounding the Falcons. COLORADO STATE by 20
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: The battle for the MAC West should see Northern Illinois victorious, but the Huskies have been mostly unimpressive, despite a 9-2 record. Watch out for a Broncos upset. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine
UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: UCF needs the win to have even a chance at the conference title. They should get it. UCF by 16
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: The Pirates don't have a chance at the conference title, but they are playing for a great bowl game. Tulsa won't be that tough an obstacle. EAST CAROLINA by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 Arizona State Sun Devils at #12 Arizona Wildcats: Yes, the Game of the Week is on Friday. The Iron Bowl is not as important as this game, which could decide a division title. This game is played at the same time as the UCLA game, so neither knows the result until the games are over. I think Arizona stands the better chance of winning, but these rivalry games can go either way. ARIZONA by eight
Sat Nov 29
Top 25:
#21 Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers often battle tough in the Iron Bowl, but Bama has had their number in recent years. Expect that trend to continue. ALABAMA by 13
Florida Gators at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Forget the rivalry on this one. Florida has been too inconsistent to challenge the comeback kids. Florida State may have their easiest victory of the season. FLORIDA STATE by 17
#3 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #15 Ole Miss Rebels: Prior to Arkansas, I was picking this game to be a close challenge. Now, too many holes have been exposed in Ole Miss' defense. Expect the Bulldogs to capitalize and further cement their place in the playoffs. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 12
#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Baylor is in the driver's seat for both the conference title and the playoffs. That will propel them to a strong win, especially with the porous defense of Tech. BAYLOR by 24
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The close call against Indiana will be a wake-up call for the Buckeyes, not that they need any additional incentive to get it up for Michigan. OHIO STATE by 23
#7 Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers love to play spoiler against their in-state rivals. While the Ducks have too many tools, the Beavers might keep it close, which could impact the playoff selection committee. OREGON by 13
#11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #8 Georgia Bulldogs: Tech had an extra week to prepare, while Georgia didn't really have a warm-up opponent in Charleston Southern. This will be a real dog fight (no pun intended, Uga), but I'll give a slight edge to the home team. GEORGIA by four
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #9 Wisconsin Badgers: Minnesota beat Nebraska to remain in the division hunt, but they face the Badgers. As good as Minnesota has been, Wisconsin has punished opponents in recent weeks, and I have to expect them to do that again. WISCONSIN by 17
#10 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State was shocked by Illinois last week, and would love to finish with a win. Unfortunately they host the Spartans; they won't get that win. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Kansas Jayhawks at #17 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas seems to have exhausted themselves when they played TCU. That helps Kansas State. KANSAS STATE by 23
UConn Huskies at #23 Memphis Tigers: UConn is having a tough year, so this should be an easy victory for Memphis. The fact that a win gives them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference title is a bonus. MEMPHIS by 24
Utah State Aggies at #24 Boise State Broncos: This might be the toughest challenge the Broncos have faced in weeks. The Broncos win their division with a win, but the Aggies may have hope if the Rams lose on Friday. Even if the Rams win, Utah State might like playing spoiler. This will be a real battle, but I give a slight edge to Boise State. BOISE STATE by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #25 Louisville Cardinals: Kentucky was tough early in the season, but they've lost steam. LOUISVILLE by 14
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: The winner of this game is bowl-elibile, the loser stays home. It would be nice for the Illini to do that, but I think it's best that Northwestern wins. The bowl committee always pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records, because they don't want the Big Ten to succeed. Northwestern can be unpredictable, and may surprise an opponent. Illinois isn't there yet. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: The loser is the worst team in the Big Ten. Indiana is looking for their first conference win, and they played Ohio State hard last week. I have to pick the upset and go with Indiana to get their first win. INDIANA by three
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins: The two newest members of the conference close the season by playing each other. Both teams are bowl eligible, but Maryland has done a better job against conference opponents. I think the Terrapins will finish with a great 5-3 conference record. MARYLAND by ten
Other Games of Interest:
South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: South Carolina has been inconsistent and sputtering for most of the season. I have to side with Clemson on this one. CLEMSON by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls: Temple was doing well early in the season, but they have faltered. In the meanwhile, Cincy has improved. Cincy can't win the conference, but a win here pads their bowl resume. CINCINNATI by 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Irish have lost two in a row. Can the Trojans make it three? They themselves just lost to bitter rival UCLA, so they have incentive to go out and play a good game. So does Notre Dame. This will be a battle, but I think USC will edge it out late in the game, when the Irish tend to fade. USC by three
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils: Wake has suffered all season. While Duke has now lost a chance at the division title, they won't slack off now. DUKE by 18
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech won the right to face Florida State
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins
Big Ten West: The winner of this week's Wisconsin - Minnesota game wins the division
Big XII: 3-way tie for the lead among Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State. TCU has the easiest schedule, but Baylor controls their destiny. They previously beat TCU and close the season against Kansas State. If Baylor wins out, they win the conference. K State needs a TCU loss (who previously beat the Wildcats) and a win over Baylor. TCU needs to win out and hope K State beats Baylor.
Conference USA East: Marshall
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech's loss to Old Dominion means they need to beat Rice to win the division. If Rice wins, they play Marshall
MAC East: Bowling Green has won the division
MAC West: Toledo beat Bowling Green to maintain the 3-way race for this title. If Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, they win the division, having previously beaten Toledo. Toledo needs a win and a Western Michigan win, as the Rockets previously beat the Broncos. Western Michigan needs to beat Northern Illinois and hope Toledo loses.
Mountain West Mountain: If Boise State beats Utah State, they win the division. If the Aggies win and the Rams win, the Rams capture the title. The Aggies need a Rams loss and a victory over Boise State.
Mountain West West: Fresno State and San Diego State lead. Since the Bulldogs previously beat the Aztecs, Fresno State wins the division with a victory over Hawaii. San Diego State needs Hawaii to beat the Bulldogs while they take care of San Jose State. Losses by both of these teams makes the division title messy.
Pac-12 North: Oregon
Pac-12 South: UCLA wins the title if they beat Stanford, as they previously beat both Arizona and Arizona State. If Stanford upsets UCLA, the winner of the Battle for Arizona wins the division.
SEC East: If Missouri wins, they capture the division. A Tiger loss gives the title to Georgia
SEC West: Alabama has won the title
Sun Belt: Georgia Southern has won the title
Tues Nov 25
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio wants the win to be bowl-eiligible, although I don't think they'll be chosen for a bowl anyway. OHIO by 10
Thurs Nov 27
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns: TCU shouldn't have much trouble beating Texas, but winning the Big XII is a tougher challenge. TCU by 24
LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Thanksgiving evening used to be the Texas - Texas A&M game. Now that those two teams are in separate conferences, they have split up and each play a conference opponent on Thanksgiving. The Aggies may have the better shot at winning. Both they and LSU have 7-4 records, although LSU has been more impressive in their victories. I give LSU the nod, but Texas A&M could win. LSU by nine
Fri Nov 28
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #13 Marshall Thundering Herd: Will Marshall rest their starters in preparation of the Conference USA Championship? After all, they know that an unbeaten record gives them no chance to play in the playoffs. If they rest them, Western Kentucky has the talent to win. However, I think Marshall has something to prove, and that unbeaten record is important to them. MARSHALL by 20
#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Nebraska has lost two games in a row. Minnesota played them closer than Wisconsin, but the Huskers are definitely slipping. Iowa might beat them, but the Hawkeyes haven't exactly been cruising recently either. NEBRASKA by six
Arkansas Razorbacks at #18 Missouri Tigers: Arkansas has shut out two opponents in a row, but I don't think they'll make it three. Arkansas might win, but Missouri needs this victory to capture the SEC East title, so that should be incentive enough to win, even if it takes a late score. MISSOURI by four
Stanford Cardinal at #20 UCLA Bruins: It's simple for UCLA -- they win, they capture the division title. Stanford would love to play spoiler, but I don't think their defense is good enough this year to do it. UCLA by six
#22 Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons: The Rams are 10-1 and still need Utah State to upset Boise in order to capture the division title. The Rams will do their part by grounding the Falcons. COLORADO STATE by 20
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: The battle for the MAC West should see Northern Illinois victorious, but the Huskies have been mostly unimpressive, despite a 9-2 record. Watch out for a Broncos upset. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by nine
UCF Golden Knights at South Florida Bulls: UCF needs the win to have even a chance at the conference title. They should get it. UCF by 16
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: The Pirates don't have a chance at the conference title, but they are playing for a great bowl game. Tulsa won't be that tough an obstacle. EAST CAROLINA by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 Arizona State Sun Devils at #12 Arizona Wildcats: Yes, the Game of the Week is on Friday. The Iron Bowl is not as important as this game, which could decide a division title. This game is played at the same time as the UCLA game, so neither knows the result until the games are over. I think Arizona stands the better chance of winning, but these rivalry games can go either way. ARIZONA by eight
Sat Nov 29
Top 25:
#21 Auburn Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers often battle tough in the Iron Bowl, but Bama has had their number in recent years. Expect that trend to continue. ALABAMA by 13
Florida Gators at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Forget the rivalry on this one. Florida has been too inconsistent to challenge the comeback kids. Florida State may have their easiest victory of the season. FLORIDA STATE by 17
#3 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #15 Ole Miss Rebels: Prior to Arkansas, I was picking this game to be a close challenge. Now, too many holes have been exposed in Ole Miss' defense. Expect the Bulldogs to capitalize and further cement their place in the playoffs. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 12
#4 Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Baylor is in the driver's seat for both the conference title and the playoffs. That will propel them to a strong win, especially with the porous defense of Tech. BAYLOR by 24
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The close call against Indiana will be a wake-up call for the Buckeyes, not that they need any additional incentive to get it up for Michigan. OHIO STATE by 23
#7 Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers love to play spoiler against their in-state rivals. While the Ducks have too many tools, the Beavers might keep it close, which could impact the playoff selection committee. OREGON by 13
#11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #8 Georgia Bulldogs: Tech had an extra week to prepare, while Georgia didn't really have a warm-up opponent in Charleston Southern. This will be a real dog fight (no pun intended, Uga), but I'll give a slight edge to the home team. GEORGIA by four
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #9 Wisconsin Badgers: Minnesota beat Nebraska to remain in the division hunt, but they face the Badgers. As good as Minnesota has been, Wisconsin has punished opponents in recent weeks, and I have to expect them to do that again. WISCONSIN by 17
#10 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State was shocked by Illinois last week, and would love to finish with a win. Unfortunately they host the Spartans; they won't get that win. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
Kansas Jayhawks at #17 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas seems to have exhausted themselves when they played TCU. That helps Kansas State. KANSAS STATE by 23
UConn Huskies at #23 Memphis Tigers: UConn is having a tough year, so this should be an easy victory for Memphis. The fact that a win gives them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference title is a bonus. MEMPHIS by 24
Utah State Aggies at #24 Boise State Broncos: This might be the toughest challenge the Broncos have faced in weeks. The Broncos win their division with a win, but the Aggies may have hope if the Rams lose on Friday. Even if the Rams win, Utah State might like playing spoiler. This will be a real battle, but I give a slight edge to Boise State. BOISE STATE by six
Kentucky Wildcats at #25 Louisville Cardinals: Kentucky was tough early in the season, but they've lost steam. LOUISVILLE by 14
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: The winner of this game is bowl-elibile, the loser stays home. It would be nice for the Illini to do that, but I think it's best that Northwestern wins. The bowl committee always pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records, because they don't want the Big Ten to succeed. Northwestern can be unpredictable, and may surprise an opponent. Illinois isn't there yet. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: The loser is the worst team in the Big Ten. Indiana is looking for their first conference win, and they played Ohio State hard last week. I have to pick the upset and go with Indiana to get their first win. INDIANA by three
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins: The two newest members of the conference close the season by playing each other. Both teams are bowl eligible, but Maryland has done a better job against conference opponents. I think the Terrapins will finish with a great 5-3 conference record. MARYLAND by ten
Other Games of Interest:
South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: South Carolina has been inconsistent and sputtering for most of the season. I have to side with Clemson on this one. CLEMSON by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Temple Owls: Temple was doing well early in the season, but they have faltered. In the meanwhile, Cincy has improved. Cincy can't win the conference, but a win here pads their bowl resume. CINCINNATI by 17
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans: The Irish have lost two in a row. Can the Trojans make it three? They themselves just lost to bitter rival UCLA, so they have incentive to go out and play a good game. So does Notre Dame. This will be a battle, but I think USC will edge it out late in the game, when the Irish tend to fade. USC by three
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils: Wake has suffered all season. While Duke has now lost a chance at the division title, they won't slack off now. DUKE by 18
NCAA 2014 Week 13 results and Top 25
We haven't reached our quota of upsets and surprising results yet! It started Thursday, as Duke was demolished by North Carolina. That knocked Duke from the Top 25. Miami lost their chance at the Top 25 by losing to Virginia. Ole Miss was shut out by Arkansas, who registered their second consecutive shutout. Finally, UCLA dominated USC, knocking the Trojans from the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : Another close game, but this time they led at the half. Did not pull away from Boston College in the second half, though, so the magic may be gone.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) [5] : Demolished Vandy in a huge shutout
4. Baylor Bears (9-1) [4] : Strong offensive showing, but the Cowboys got in their licks
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [3] : Struggled badly in the first half against pitiful Indiana
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6]
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1) [10] : Strong win, combined with weak performances above them, advance the Ducks to Top 5 range
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) [7]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [8] : Let Iowa back into the game in the fourth quarter
10. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) [11]
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [14] : Sometimes it pays to take a week off
12. Arizona Wildcats (9-2) [21] : Most impressive win of the season
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-0) [12] : Nearly fell from the ranks of the unbeatens
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [15] : Kansas didn't give Oklahoma any problems
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) [9] : Huge loss for the Rebs
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3) [13] : The Huskers are moving the wrong way
17. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) [16]
18. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [18] : Closing in on their second consecutive SEC East title
19. Arizona State Sun Devils [19]
20. UCLA Bruins (9-2) [22] : Beat their crosstown rivals
21. Auburn Tigers (8-3) [20]
22. Colorado State Rams (10-1) [23]
23. Memphis Tigers (8-3) [27]
24. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [28]
25. Louisville Cardinals (8-3) [29]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#17], USC Trojans [#24], Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#25]
On the Edge: Utah State Aggies (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3), LSU Tigers (7-4), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : Another close game, but this time they led at the half. Did not pull away from Boston College in the second half, though, so the magic may be gone.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) [5] : Demolished Vandy in a huge shutout
4. Baylor Bears (9-1) [4] : Strong offensive showing, but the Cowboys got in their licks
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [3] : Struggled badly in the first half against pitiful Indiana
6. TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) [6]
7. Oregon Ducks (10-1) [10] : Strong win, combined with weak performances above them, advance the Ducks to Top 5 range
8. Georgia Bulldogs (9-2) [7]
9. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [8] : Let Iowa back into the game in the fourth quarter
10. Michigan State Spartans (9-2) [11]
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-2) [14] : Sometimes it pays to take a week off
12. Arizona Wildcats (9-2) [21] : Most impressive win of the season
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (11-0) [12] : Nearly fell from the ranks of the unbeatens
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-3) [15] : Kansas didn't give Oklahoma any problems
15. Ole Miss Rebels (8-3) [9] : Huge loss for the Rebs
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-3) [13] : The Huskers are moving the wrong way
17. Kansas State Wildcats (8-2) [16]
18. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [18] : Closing in on their second consecutive SEC East title
19. Arizona State Sun Devils [19]
20. UCLA Bruins (9-2) [22] : Beat their crosstown rivals
21. Auburn Tigers (8-3) [20]
22. Colorado State Rams (10-1) [23]
23. Memphis Tigers (8-3) [27]
24. Boise State Broncos (9-2) [28]
25. Louisville Cardinals (8-3) [29]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#17], USC Trojans [#24], Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#25]
On the Edge: Utah State Aggies (9-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-3), LSU Tigers (7-4), East Carolina Pirates (8-3), Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5)
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 12 picks
Thursday night: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Oakland is winless so far this season, and that will continue after this game. KC has a strong balance of offense and defense, and they will dominate this game. CHIEFS, 27-16
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Either team could win this game, but Ryan Mallet has breathed new life into the Texans since assuming the starting position. Throw in the Texans defense, and this team has the edge. TEXANS, 23-21
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had one good game last week, but basically they have been pathetic this season. The Browns have been doing fairly well, combining a smart defense with excellent play by Brian Hoyer, who is keeping Johnny Manziel on the bench. BROWNS, 23-20
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: Tough two-game streak for the Lions, who move from Arizona (the stiffest defense in the league) to New England (the best offense in the league). The Pats will blow them away while they light up the scoreboard. PATRIOTS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater has been playing fairly well, but the defense is lacking in Minnesota. Given the recent scoring by Green Bay, facing a weak defense is an invitation for another huge offense performance. PACKERS, 43-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts struggle against strong teams, but the Jags are not a strong team. COLTS, 31-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Speaking of teams that are not strong, the Jets qualify for that claim. BILLS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Chicago Bears: After beating Washington last week, the Bucs may believe they can win two in a row. However, the situation is different. In Washington, you had a team in disarray whose personal conflicts were bubbling below the surface, and they burst out during that game. The Bears have dealt with their demons and have emerged stronger. While their defense will give the Bucs a chance, the Bears offense will prevail. BEARS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Titans defense isn't strong enough to stop the Eagles, even if Mark Sanchez has regressed to his Jets performances. Against a team like Tennessee, this offense can be run even with a mediocre quarterback. EAGLES, 30-20
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The defending champs are entering a tough part of their schedule. They play very well at home, but I think the Cardinals will be a little too much for them. CARDINALS, 23-21
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: The Dolphins defense will give the Broncos some trouble, but they have the edge in the wintery weather of Denver. BRONCOS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: The Rams manhandled Denver, but San Diego is another story. Denver is one-sided -- they pass nearly all the time. The Chargers have a more diverse offense, and I think that's more than the Rams can handle. CHARGERS, 23-17
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: Both teams are in disarray, but the Redskins' conflicts have erupted this week, potentially distracting them from the game. Since some players reset the comments made by Coach Gruden, that conflict with the coach will impact their play on the field. Great opening for San Francisco. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Cowboys had a bye week to rest Romo's back. He'll have a good game. While Eli will not likely repeat his 5 INT performance from Sunday, there are too many problems on that offense for them to win. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: This is a tough game to pick. By numbers alone, the Ravens are the dominant force. However, the Saints play well at home, and play hard after tough losses. Both of those situations are in play for this game. I'll still pick the Ravens, because I'm a "numbers guy," but watch for a Saints victory. RAVENS, 26-23
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans: Either team could win this game, but Ryan Mallet has breathed new life into the Texans since assuming the starting position. Throw in the Texans defense, and this team has the edge. TEXANS, 23-21
Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons had one good game last week, but basically they have been pathetic this season. The Browns have been doing fairly well, combining a smart defense with excellent play by Brian Hoyer, who is keeping Johnny Manziel on the bench. BROWNS, 23-20
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: Tough two-game streak for the Lions, who move from Arizona (the stiffest defense in the league) to New England (the best offense in the league). The Pats will blow them away while they light up the scoreboard. PATRIOTS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater has been playing fairly well, but the defense is lacking in Minnesota. Given the recent scoring by Green Bay, facing a weak defense is an invitation for another huge offense performance. PACKERS, 43-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts struggle against strong teams, but the Jags are not a strong team. COLTS, 31-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Speaking of teams that are not strong, the Jets qualify for that claim. BILLS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Chicago Bears: After beating Washington last week, the Bucs may believe they can win two in a row. However, the situation is different. In Washington, you had a team in disarray whose personal conflicts were bubbling below the surface, and they burst out during that game. The Bears have dealt with their demons and have emerged stronger. While their defense will give the Bucs a chance, the Bears offense will prevail. BEARS, 27-23
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles: The Titans defense isn't strong enough to stop the Eagles, even if Mark Sanchez has regressed to his Jets performances. Against a team like Tennessee, this offense can be run even with a mediocre quarterback. EAGLES, 30-20
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: The defending champs are entering a tough part of their schedule. They play very well at home, but I think the Cardinals will be a little too much for them. CARDINALS, 23-21
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: The Dolphins defense will give the Broncos some trouble, but they have the edge in the wintery weather of Denver. BRONCOS, 27-23
St Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: The Rams manhandled Denver, but San Diego is another story. Denver is one-sided -- they pass nearly all the time. The Chargers have a more diverse offense, and I think that's more than the Rams can handle. CHARGERS, 23-17
Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers: Both teams are in disarray, but the Redskins' conflicts have erupted this week, potentially distracting them from the game. Since some players reset the comments made by Coach Gruden, that conflict with the coach will impact their play on the field. Great opening for San Francisco. 49ERS, 23-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Cowboys had a bye week to rest Romo's back. He'll have a good game. While Eli will not likely repeat his 5 INT performance from Sunday, there are too many problems on that offense for them to win. COWBOYS, 27-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints: This is a tough game to pick. By numbers alone, the Ravens are the dominant force. However, the Saints play well at home, and play hard after tough losses. Both of those situations are in play for this game. I'll still pick the Ravens, because I'm a "numbers guy," but watch for a Saints victory. RAVENS, 26-23
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 11 news and Power Rankings
Some takeaways this week:
1. The best offenses in the league belong to Green Bay and New England. No matter the defense, these two teams are posting college-level numbers.
2. Could the winner of the NFC South have a losing record? It's beginning to look that way. The Saints winning streak is over and they looked as bad as they did at the beginning of the season.
3. Tweak the Bears, they get angry. They generated more offense this week than any game but one, Matt Forte had a 100+ yard game for the first time in weeks, and they mixed rush and pass very effectively.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) [1] : The Cardinals didn't look great, but their defense controlled Detroit
2. New England Patriots (8-2) [2] : Best offense in the AFC
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) [6] : Best offense in the NFC
4. Denver Broncos (7-3) [3] : The Rams caused flashbacks of the Super Bowl
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) [7] : Quietly becoming a force in the league
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [9] : Good week for a bye
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) [4] : Spanked but good by the Pack
8. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [10] : Also benefits from a bye
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) [5] : Stomped by New England
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [8] : Their defense toughened after early scores by Arizona, but the Cards defense proved too much for Stafford and company
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Great wins by Cincy and Pitt
2. AFC West [2] : Despite Oakland, the other teams have winning records
3. NFC West [2] : Arizona continues to control, and this may be the first division title to be clinched
4. NFC North [5] : The Pack are rising fast and the Bears pulled out of their slump
5. AFC East [4] : Wins by the Pats and Dolphins were impressive
6. NFC East [5] : All of the teams who played lost. This division is losing steam
7. AFC South [7] The Texans evened their record, but the Colts were smashed
8. NFC South [8] : Definitely the worst division in the league
1. The best offenses in the league belong to Green Bay and New England. No matter the defense, these two teams are posting college-level numbers.
2. Could the winner of the NFC South have a losing record? It's beginning to look that way. The Saints winning streak is over and they looked as bad as they did at the beginning of the season.
3. Tweak the Bears, they get angry. They generated more offense this week than any game but one, Matt Forte had a 100+ yard game for the first time in weeks, and they mixed rush and pass very effectively.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-1) [1] : The Cardinals didn't look great, but their defense controlled Detroit
2. New England Patriots (8-2) [2] : Best offense in the AFC
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3) [6] : Best offense in the NFC
4. Denver Broncos (7-3) [3] : The Rams caused flashbacks of the Super Bowl
5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) [7] : Quietly becoming a force in the league
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) [9] : Good week for a bye
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-3) [4] : Spanked but good by the Pack
8. Dallas Cowboys (7-3) [10] : Also benefits from a bye
9. Indianapolis Colts (6-4) [5] : Stomped by New England
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [8] : Their defense toughened after early scores by Arizona, but the Cards defense proved too much for Stafford and company
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Great wins by Cincy and Pitt
2. AFC West [2] : Despite Oakland, the other teams have winning records
3. NFC West [2] : Arizona continues to control, and this may be the first division title to be clinched
4. NFC North [5] : The Pack are rising fast and the Bears pulled out of their slump
5. AFC East [4] : Wins by the Pats and Dolphins were impressive
6. NFC East [5] : All of the teams who played lost. This division is losing steam
7. AFC South [7] The Texans evened their record, but the Colts were smashed
8. NFC South [8] : Definitely the worst division in the league
Sunday, November 16, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 13 title races and picks
American Athletic: The picture gets a little clearer. Memphis holds a half-game lead over Cincinnati and UCF, and will win the conference if they win out.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State clinched the title
ACC Coastal: All of the leaders lost this week except Georgia Tech, who now leads. They have finished conference play, and Duke holds the tiebreaker, so Duke can win by winning out. If Duke loses again, Georgia Tech wins the division.
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins the division with another victory or a Michigan State loss
Big Ten West: Wisconsin holds the lead and their two remaining games are against the other contenders. If they win out, they win. Nebraska would need Wisconsin to lose twice, so that's not happening. Iowa or Minnesota could win by beating Wisconsin and winning their other game.
Big XII: TCU has a half-game lead over Baylor and Kansas State and has the easiest schedule remaining. However, Baylor beat them earlier. If Baylor wins out (which includes the season ending bout against Kansas State), they win the title.
Conference USA East: Marshall has clinched
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech leads by two. They clinch with one more win.
MAC East: Bowling Green leads by two and holds the tiebreaker over Ohio. Only UMass has a remote chance. Bowling Green clinches with another win or a UMass loss.
MAC West: It's a three-way battle among Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Toledo. Toledo holds the tiebreaker over Western Michigan, so even if the Broncos win out (which would include the season-ending game against Northern Illinois) and the Rockets do as well, Toledo wins. Toledo faces Bowling Green this week, however. Northern Illinois has Ohio before Western Michigan, so the Broncos might have the best chance to win out.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise can still clinch by winning out. If Utah State beats them but Colorado State wins out, the Rams win. Utah State needs the Rams to lose one and then beat Boise.
Mountain West West: With losses by all three of the division leaders, this division just got really messy, as now FIVE teams are mathematically eligible for the title.
Pac-12 North: Oregon already won
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead, but nearly the whole division still has a shot
SEC East: It's between Georgia and Missouri. Missouri currently leads, so if they win out they grab the title. Georgia is done with conference play and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so a Tiger loss hands the division title to Georgia.
SEC West: Alabama clinches with another win. Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would need to win out and hope the Tide lost a game.
Sun Belt: Since the Ragin Cajuns play one more conference game, they win by beating their remaining two opponents. If they lose a game, Georgia Southern captures the crown.
Tues Nov 18
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio Bobcats: A Huskies win here guarantees that next week's bout against Western Michigan would be played for the division title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Wed Nov 19
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: This is a vital game for both teams. Bowling Green clinches their division with a win while Toledo loses any chance at theirs with a loss. Bowling Green is the stronger team, but Toledo can be tenacious, and they know their season is on the line with this game. I expect a close and hard-fought battle. BOWLING GREEN by six
Thurs Nov 20
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has been a pesky opponent sometimes, but Kansas State seems pretty solid. They had an extra week to prepare for this game, so I expect the Wildcats to come out swinging. KANSAS STATE by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #17 Duke Blue Devils: Duke knows they need to win out in order to win the division. That's incredible incentive. I think Duke will win, but I almost hope they don't win the division. Florida State knows how to beat them, but Georgia Tech might have a tough enough defense to prevent another Seminole comeback, knocking off the defending National Champions and sending Ohio State into the playoffs. DUKE by 13
Fri Nov 21
Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs: Air Force can't win their division, but they are the stronger team here, and should knock San Diego out of their divisional race. AIR FORCE by 13
Sat Nov 22
Top 25:
Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: No contest. BAMA by lots
Boston College Eagles at #2 Florida State Seminoles: BC can be tough, so the Seminoles might find themselves behind at halftime again, but the Eagles won't be able to stop another Seminole comeback. FLORIDA STATE by 16
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Indiana hasn't won a conference game all season. This won't be the exception. OHIO STATE by 34
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #4 Baylor Bears: Oklahoma State is a threat, but not a serious one. Baylor is bolstered by the near-TCU loss last week, and therefore play with spirit and energy. BAYLOR by 24
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Mississippi State Bulldogs: Easy win for the Bulldogs as Vandy searches (unsuccessfully) for their first conference win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 26
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (FCS) at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The SEC ranked teams play a bunch of patsies this week. GEORGIA by lots
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While I don't think Melvin Gordon will come close to setting another NCAA record for rushing, the Badgers should be able to run well against the Hawkeyes. WISCONSIN by 23
#9 Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks finally got their first SEC win last week after a few near misses. Are they ready for a letdown? Ole Miss took the week off, so they are refereshed. So long as they aren't looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, they should win. OLE MISS by 17
Colorado Buffaloes at #10 Oregon Ducks: Easy win for the Ducks. OREGON by 33
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Rutgers got their second Big Ten last week, but it was against lowly Indiana. They won't get their third one this week. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
#12 Marshall Thundering Herd at UAB Blazers: Will Marshall rest their guys since they've already clinched their division and they have no hope at the playoffs? I don't think so, because they'd love to argue why they were omitted despite an unbeaten record. They may play backups once they have a comfortable lead, though. MARSHALL by 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #13 Nebraska Cornhuksers: Nebraska needs a tremendous win to wash away the stink of the Wisconsin debacle. Minnesota might be a tough opponent, though, so they may not have the great win they hope for. NEBRASKA by six
Kansas Jayhawks at #15 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas may have exhausted themselves against TCU. OKLAHOMA by 23
#18 Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee blew away Kentucky, but Missouri won't be as easy. Missouri is playing for a chance to play Alabama in the SEC Championship (is that an honor or a punishment? I'm not sure), so they will play hard. MISSOURI by 17
Washington State Cougars at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils want to bounce back from the comeback loss at Corvallis, and beating up on weak Washington State will probably do that. ARIZONA STATE by 24
Samford Bulldogs (FCS) at #20 Auburn Tigers: Auburn has lost two in a row, but that streak stops here. AUBURN by lots
#21 Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes: The Utes can be dangerous, so the Wildcats should not take them for granted. Arizona barely escaped with a late field goal last week; they can't expect to do that again. The Wildcats should win, but watch for the upset. ARIZONA by four
New Mexico Lobos at #23 Colorado State Rams: The Rams are well rested and ready to skin the Lobos. COLORADO STATE by 23
Louisville Cardinals at #25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the last couple of weeks, I'm not sure picking against the Irish could be considered an upset. LOUISVILLE by six
Big Ten:
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines: How tough is Michigan's season? How about the fact that I'm picking a conference rookie to beat them? MARYLAND by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers: If Northwestern can prevent a letdown after their amazing comeback against Notre Dame, they should win this one. NORTHWESTERN by eleven
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Penn State should win, but their play has been inconsistent this season. If their offense falters, the Illini offense is good enough to outscore them. PENN STATE by eight
Other Games of Interest:
Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates have an outside chance at the conference title, but I'm not sure they're counting on it. Tulane won't be a tough opponent, though, so their slim chances will remain. EAST CAROLINA by 13
South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers: UConn is nearly a guaranteed win, so Memphis knows a win here basically clinches the conference title. That's incentive enough. MEMPHIS by 20
Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't that much of a threat, although they are having a decent year (by their standards). BOISE STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: #24 USC Trojans at #22 UCLA Bruins: This crosstown rival is always intense, and UCLA has the advantage of an extra week to prepare. However, QB Brett Huntley has been inconsistent this season, and USC has been a strong opponent. I like the chances of an upset, although UCLA could win. USC by four
ACC Atlantic: Florida State clinched the title
ACC Coastal: All of the leaders lost this week except Georgia Tech, who now leads. They have finished conference play, and Duke holds the tiebreaker, so Duke can win by winning out. If Duke loses again, Georgia Tech wins the division.
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins the division with another victory or a Michigan State loss
Big Ten West: Wisconsin holds the lead and their two remaining games are against the other contenders. If they win out, they win. Nebraska would need Wisconsin to lose twice, so that's not happening. Iowa or Minnesota could win by beating Wisconsin and winning their other game.
Big XII: TCU has a half-game lead over Baylor and Kansas State and has the easiest schedule remaining. However, Baylor beat them earlier. If Baylor wins out (which includes the season ending bout against Kansas State), they win the title.
Conference USA East: Marshall has clinched
Conference USA West: Louisiana Tech leads by two. They clinch with one more win.
MAC East: Bowling Green leads by two and holds the tiebreaker over Ohio. Only UMass has a remote chance. Bowling Green clinches with another win or a UMass loss.
MAC West: It's a three-way battle among Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, and Toledo. Toledo holds the tiebreaker over Western Michigan, so even if the Broncos win out (which would include the season-ending game against Northern Illinois) and the Rockets do as well, Toledo wins. Toledo faces Bowling Green this week, however. Northern Illinois has Ohio before Western Michigan, so the Broncos might have the best chance to win out.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise can still clinch by winning out. If Utah State beats them but Colorado State wins out, the Rams win. Utah State needs the Rams to lose one and then beat Boise.
Mountain West West: With losses by all three of the division leaders, this division just got really messy, as now FIVE teams are mathematically eligible for the title.
Pac-12 North: Oregon already won
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead, but nearly the whole division still has a shot
SEC East: It's between Georgia and Missouri. Missouri currently leads, so if they win out they grab the title. Georgia is done with conference play and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so a Tiger loss hands the division title to Georgia.
SEC West: Alabama clinches with another win. Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss would need to win out and hope the Tide lost a game.
Sun Belt: Since the Ragin Cajuns play one more conference game, they win by beating their remaining two opponents. If they lose a game, Georgia Southern captures the crown.
Tues Nov 18
Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio Bobcats: A Huskies win here guarantees that next week's bout against Western Michigan would be played for the division title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
Wed Nov 19
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets: This is a vital game for both teams. Bowling Green clinches their division with a win while Toledo loses any chance at theirs with a loss. Bowling Green is the stronger team, but Toledo can be tenacious, and they know their season is on the line with this game. I expect a close and hard-fought battle. BOWLING GREEN by six
Thurs Nov 20
#16 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has been a pesky opponent sometimes, but Kansas State seems pretty solid. They had an extra week to prepare for this game, so I expect the Wildcats to come out swinging. KANSAS STATE by 20
North Carolina Tar Heels at #17 Duke Blue Devils: Duke knows they need to win out in order to win the division. That's incredible incentive. I think Duke will win, but I almost hope they don't win the division. Florida State knows how to beat them, but Georgia Tech might have a tough enough defense to prevent another Seminole comeback, knocking off the defending National Champions and sending Ohio State into the playoffs. DUKE by 13
Fri Nov 21
Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs: Air Force can't win their division, but they are the stronger team here, and should knock San Diego out of their divisional race. AIR FORCE by 13
Sat Nov 22
Top 25:
Western Carolina Catamounts (FCS) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: No contest. BAMA by lots
Boston College Eagles at #2 Florida State Seminoles: BC can be tough, so the Seminoles might find themselves behind at halftime again, but the Eagles won't be able to stop another Seminole comeback. FLORIDA STATE by 16
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes: Indiana hasn't won a conference game all season. This won't be the exception. OHIO STATE by 34
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #4 Baylor Bears: Oklahoma State is a threat, but not a serious one. Baylor is bolstered by the near-TCU loss last week, and therefore play with spirit and energy. BAYLOR by 24
Vanderbilt Commodores at #5 Mississippi State Bulldogs: Easy win for the Bulldogs as Vandy searches (unsuccessfully) for their first conference win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 26
Charleston Southern Buccaneers (FCS) at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The SEC ranked teams play a bunch of patsies this week. GEORGIA by lots
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While I don't think Melvin Gordon will come close to setting another NCAA record for rushing, the Badgers should be able to run well against the Hawkeyes. WISCONSIN by 23
#9 Ole Miss Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks finally got their first SEC win last week after a few near misses. Are they ready for a letdown? Ole Miss took the week off, so they are refereshed. So long as they aren't looking ahead to the Egg Bowl, they should win. OLE MISS by 17
Colorado Buffaloes at #10 Oregon Ducks: Easy win for the Ducks. OREGON by 33
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Rutgers got their second Big Ten last week, but it was against lowly Indiana. They won't get their third one this week. MICHIGAN STATE by 20
#12 Marshall Thundering Herd at UAB Blazers: Will Marshall rest their guys since they've already clinched their division and they have no hope at the playoffs? I don't think so, because they'd love to argue why they were omitted despite an unbeaten record. They may play backups once they have a comfortable lead, though. MARSHALL by 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #13 Nebraska Cornhuksers: Nebraska needs a tremendous win to wash away the stink of the Wisconsin debacle. Minnesota might be a tough opponent, though, so they may not have the great win they hope for. NEBRASKA by six
Kansas Jayhawks at #15 Oklahoma Sooners: Kansas may have exhausted themselves against TCU. OKLAHOMA by 23
#18 Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee blew away Kentucky, but Missouri won't be as easy. Missouri is playing for a chance to play Alabama in the SEC Championship (is that an honor or a punishment? I'm not sure), so they will play hard. MISSOURI by 17
Washington State Cougars at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils want to bounce back from the comeback loss at Corvallis, and beating up on weak Washington State will probably do that. ARIZONA STATE by 24
Samford Bulldogs (FCS) at #20 Auburn Tigers: Auburn has lost two in a row, but that streak stops here. AUBURN by lots
#21 Arizona Wildcats at Utah Utes: The Utes can be dangerous, so the Wildcats should not take them for granted. Arizona barely escaped with a late field goal last week; they can't expect to do that again. The Wildcats should win, but watch for the upset. ARIZONA by four
New Mexico Lobos at #23 Colorado State Rams: The Rams are well rested and ready to skin the Lobos. COLORADO STATE by 23
Louisville Cardinals at #25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the last couple of weeks, I'm not sure picking against the Irish could be considered an upset. LOUISVILLE by six
Big Ten:
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines: How tough is Michigan's season? How about the fact that I'm picking a conference rookie to beat them? MARYLAND by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers: If Northwestern can prevent a letdown after their amazing comeback against Notre Dame, they should win this one. NORTHWESTERN by eleven
Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Penn State should win, but their play has been inconsistent this season. If their offense falters, the Illini offense is good enough to outscore them. PENN STATE by eight
Other Games of Interest:
Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates have an outside chance at the conference title, but I'm not sure they're counting on it. Tulane won't be a tough opponent, though, so their slim chances will remain. EAST CAROLINA by 13
South Florida Bulls at Memphis Tigers: UConn is nearly a guaranteed win, so Memphis knows a win here basically clinches the conference title. That's incentive enough. MEMPHIS by 20
Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't that much of a threat, although they are having a decent year (by their standards). BOISE STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: #24 USC Trojans at #22 UCLA Bruins: This crosstown rival is always intense, and UCLA has the advantage of an extra week to prepare. However, QB Brett Huntley has been inconsistent this season, and USC has been a strong opponent. I like the chances of an upset, although UCLA could win. USC by four
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)