Tuesday, January 13, 2015

NCAA 2014 Postscript

What an exciting National Championship game, at least for anyone who wasn't an Oregon fan.  The tough Ohio State defense proved that they could stop even the seemingly unstoppable Ducks offense.  Even with a turnover ratio of -4, the Buckeyes held the Ducks at bay, while marching down the field for three long touchdown drives, including a 97-yard drive for their first touchdown.

The Buckeyes take the crown and capture the top spot on the final Top 25 of this NCAA Football season.  Here's the entire list:

Top 25 [position after final regular season week]
1.  OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (14-1) [2]
2.  TCU Horned Frogs (13-1) [4] : They missed the playoffs, but was the only Big XII team to impress in the bowls
3.  Oregon Ducks (13-2) [5]
4.  Alabama Crimson Tide (12-2) [1] : They were the only team in the last four games to stay close to the Buckeyes
5.  Michigan State Spartans (11-2) [7] : Great last minute win to overcome Baylor and quiet their claims to the playoffs
6.  Baylor Bears (11-2) [6]
7.  Florida State Seminoles (13-1) [3]
8.  Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) [9]
9.  Wisconsin Badgers (11-3) [12] : Recovered from their shutout in the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-3) [10] : They beat Mississippi State to help give the SEC West a 2-5 bowl record
11. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-3) [8]
12. Boise State Broncos (12-1) [15]
13. Marshall Thundering Herd (13-1) [14]
14. Missouri Tigers (11-3) [25]
15. Memphis Tigers (10-3) [19]
16. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3) [20]
17. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [NR]
18. USC Trojans (9-4) [23]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) [13]
20. Ole Miss Rebels (9-4) [11] : Big losers to TCU
21. Kansas State Wildcats (9-4) [17]
22. UCLA Bruins (10-3) [NR]
23. Arizona Wildcats (10-4) [18]
24. Utah State Aggies (10-4) [NR]
25. Oklahoma Sooners (8-5) [16]

Dropped off: Colorado State Rams [#21], Auburn Tigers [#22], Northern Illinois Huskies [#24]

As far as the bowls are concerned, it was a tough year for the SEC West, ACC, Big XII, and American Athletic.  Here are the results:

1.  Conference USA (4-1) : One of their best bowl records in years, Conference USA proved their worth against stiff competition.
2.  Pac-12 (6-2) : The best among the Power Five conferences, they made Oregon look good
3.  Independents (2-1)
4.  SEC (7-5) : Saved by a 5-0 record by the "weaker" SEC East, this conference had its worst bowl record in a decade
5.  Big Ten (5-5) : Considering that most of their games were played against higher-ranked opponents, and they were the underdogs in all but two games, this is an amazing result.  They went 2-1 against the SEC
6.  Mountain West (3-4) : Lost games they should have won and didn't win any surprises
7.  ACC (4-6) : Clemson and Georgia Tech were the only two impressive teams
8.  MAC (2-3)
9.  American Athletic (2-4) : Not a great showing for their first year
10. Sun Belt (1-2) : The way it is with them.  They either have a great year or a poor one
11. Big XII (2-5) : What can we say?  Except for TCU, they stunk

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

NFL Divisional round playoff picks

Well, I only went 2-2 in the wildcard round.  3 of 4 home teams won, so I'm counting on that again.

#6 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at #1 New England Patriots (12-4) : The Patriots were devastating at home this season.  The Ravens defense is good, but can they slow the powerful New England offense?  It seems unlikely.  Joe Flacco has publicly stated that he has a strategy to defeat Tom Brady.  Too bad those two never meet on the field.  The Ravens defense may think they have a solution for Brady, but this is not the same defense that defeated San Francisco two years ago.  Brady had the 3rd best QB rating in the AFC this season, behind Peyton and Big Ben.  Granted, the Ravens beat Big Ben last week, but the Steelers were a bit banged up.  The Patriots have most of their weapons back, which doesn't bode well for the Ravens.  PATRIOTS, 30-23

#4 Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at #1 Seattle Seahawks (12-4) : The Seahawks had the best run into the playoffs as any team, even the Panthers.  Once again, the Seahawks are a force at home.  They lost a home game earlier in the season, but this team has toughened since then.  There are simply too many weapons for the Panthers defense to stop, and the Seahawks defense is stifling.  SEAHAWKS, 23-13

#3 Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at #2 Green Bay Packers (12-4) : The last time these two met in the postseason was the Ice Bowl in 1967.  The Packers might hope the current Arctic blast would stick around, creating Ice Bowl II, but the front is predicted to be gone by Friday, two days before kickoff.  Still, Green Bay has a decisive advantage.  Physical exertion in extreme cold can lead to cramps.  The Cowboys have no way to practice in such conditions, while the Packers can simply go outside.  There is concern about Aaron Rodgers' injured calf, and cold weather can aggravate that.  Still, with the addition week to heal it, and limited practice time to put strain on it, he should be in decent shape for game day.  Romo has often struggled in cold weather.  While he has spent this season reversing several knocks against him, can he overcome this one?  I don't think so.  PACKERS, 24-17

#4 Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at #2 Denver Broncos (12-4) : This was actually the toughest game to pick.  Peyton was the highest rated QB in the league this season, but he did not look good in the final weeks leading to the playoffs.  Luck has been a major threat this season.  Denver's defense is not great, so the Colts should be able to score a lot.  If Manning cannot return to his earlier season form, the Broncos will lose.  I think Peyton will get it together, but this will still be a close offensive showdown.  BRONCOS, 31-30