Here we are, at the start of a new NCAA football season. There are too many games to discuss each one, even if I limit myself to the Bowl Subdivision. Thus, as readers of my column know, I work from three categories: Top 25 matchups, Big Ten matches, and other games of interest.
This year, in addition to the selected Game of the Week, I will add the FCS Game of the Week. This allows those of you interested in the Football Championship Subdivision to see what game I find significant that week.
This week I will list only Big Ten games and other games of significance. I have no Top 25, and won't have one for a couple of weeks. This might confuse people new to my blog, as most football analysts have already presented their preseason Top 25. I never make one. You see, most of these analysts pick their Top 25 from a limited selection of their favorite teams, teams that often finish seasons well. They determine which ones they think will do well. That's fine, but these same analysts make each successive week's Top 25 based upon the previous weeks. Thus, even if these so-called experts guessed wrong, it can take weeks to remove teams that were disappointments and bring surprise teams into the Top 25. My Top 25 is not based upon my personal opinions, but based upon a complex points system that factors win percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule. Since I need enough teams to have played FBS teams, and many FBS teams play FCS teams in the first couple of weeks, my Top 25 will not be produced until after Week 2.
Thursday, Aug 30 games
Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Running Rebels: This will be a close game. The Gophers aren't a strong team, but the Rebels need time to get comfortable with their new players and positions. I think the Gophers will win because their returning starters are used to tougher competition, but UNLV might be closing the gap in the fourth quarter. GOPHERS by three
Friday, Aug 31 games
Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans: Boise State has been a tough opponent over the past few years, and the Spartans figured they had an excellent warm-up here. Unfortunately, these Broncos aren't the same. They lost too much on their offense, and it will take weeks until they start to resemble anything like their old self. MSU should breeze easily through this one. SPARTANS by sixteen
San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal: These Spartans won't have so much good fortune. The Cardinal without Luck will need to rejuvenate their offense, but their defense is still tough as nails, a factor not in favor with the Spartans offense. STANFORD by 17
Saturday, Sept 1 games
Big Ten:
Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini won their first six games last season until injuries and tough conference opponents sent them on the skids. They could start almost as well this season. A new offensive scheme favors backup QB Reilly O'Toole, so starter Nathan Scheelhaase knows he has to perform. That should inspire him through this game. ILLINOIS by 14
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio State Buckeyes: The offense finds itself stripped to the bone after "tattoo gate". New coach Urban Meyer loves to toy with offenses, and it'll be interesting to see what he dials up for Ohio State. Whatever it is will be significantly different from what the Buckeyes are used to, and will take time to develop. This one will be won the old-fashioned way -- a stingy defense that won't let Miami in the end zone. OHIO STATE by ten
Ohio Bobcats at Penn State Nittany Lions: Just how far has Penn State fallen with the defections after the NCAA sanctions? How about my expectation that they will LOSE this game? While that is as much of a testimony to how good Ohio will be, and how tough the MAC plays the Big Ten, it still puts Penn State in a tough spot right out of the gate. OHIO by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Syracuse Orange: Syracuse might be improved over last season, but they still aren't capable of stopping an offense used to battling the tough defenses of the Big Ten. Northwestern has a tough season ahead of them, but they should capture an easy victory here. NORTHWESTERN by 13
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Southern Miss will be a tough opponent this season, but Nebraska will be tougher. The Cornhuskers are masters at ground-churning timeclock-burning offenses, and they have a tough defense to match. This will likely be a low-scoring game, as the Eagles have a tough defense, too, but the Huskers offense will punch through. NEBRASKA by twelve
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northern Illinois Huskies: A down Iowa team has to travel to a strong MAC opponent, and the MAC has given Big Ten teams fits the past couple of years. This might be tighter than Hawkeyes fans would like, but they'll come on in the fourth quarter -- few teams come back scratching as hard as the Hawkeyes. IOWA by six
Eastern Kentucky Colonels (FCS) at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue is a decent team, and Eastern Kentucky is not one of the strongest Ohio Valley teams. This one should be a fairly easy victory for Purdue. PURDUE by 20
Indiana State Sycamores (FCS) at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers will struggle against most of their FBS opponents, but they get a good start against the Sycamores. INDIANA by 18
Other games of interest:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen: As usual, the Irish team and fans start the season with high hopes. They'd love to open with a win, but Navy won't make it easy. Navy has owned the toughest ground game in the FBS for the past few years, and with Notre Dame's passing game looking questionable, they can't win a ground battle with Navy. If the Irish can't get the ball airborne, they may suffer an opening week loss. I think they might sneak by, though. NOTRE DAME by two
Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia opens their Big XII tenure as an early conference title favorite. They're used to that position, as they were often favored to win the Big East. This game will be a wipeout. WEST VIRGINIA by 27
Hawaii Warriors at USC Trojans: The Trojans are an early favorite to win the NCAA Championship. Many of their players returned this year, their first off probation in three years, for just that reason. They want to impress with every game, and that starts here. USC by 31
Monday, Sept 3 games
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Tech Hokies: I remember when these games were exciting and close. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech hasn't been on the same talent level of Virginia Tech for years, and that remains true today. VIRGINIA TECH by 17
FCS Game of the Week: Jacksonville Dolphins at Georgia Southern Eagles: Two teams who played well last season face off in an exciting battle. I think Jacksonville lost more talent than Georgia Southern, and has a thinner roster to replace from. I could be wrong, but I like Georgia Southern to open with a win. GEORGIA SOUTHERN by eight
GAME OF THE WEEK: Michigan Wolverines at Alabama Crimson Tide: Last year's National Champ travels to a Top Ten preseason favorite for this year's title. After struggling the past few years, Michigan is a top-notch team again, but they don't have the offensive strength to get past the staunch Tide defense. The Wolverines also have a tough defense, so the Tide will struggle to score. This will be a low-scoring defensive battle, but I give the edge to the National Champs. TIDE by six
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Joe Paterno and the Penn State sex scandal -- An Insider's View
For the sake of honesty, let me explain the title of this blog entry. I am not a Penn State insider, but I am an insider into the workings of a public state university. As an Adjunct Professor and faculty member of the State University of New York at Albany, I know the bureaucracy and consequences of reporting infractions and crimes on the campus of a university.
How is that important here? So many reporters are screaming that Joe Paterno had no heart and that he was reckless and careless in not reporting the sexual behavior of Jerry Sandusky to the local or state police. That outcry was what led the NCAA to posthumously strip JoePa of enough victories to remove him as the winningest coach in NCAA football history.
Here's a shocker for all of you -- HE DID THE RIGHT THING!
Did he do the right thing MORALLY? No. Did he do the right thing according to the university rules that he had followed so diligently for over 30 years? ABSOLUTELY! Remember, Penn State had NEVER suffered from major NCAA infractions or penalties during Paterno's reign as head coach, mainly because he followed the rules (and insisted his players do so) with almost military diligence. To step outside the boundaries of university accountability and structure would have been unthinkable for him.
For those people still reading this, whose minds are rational enough to prevent their own bias to boil over and turn away from this post in disgust, let me explain a few things about the communication and enforcement structure at major universities. Who knows? You might learn something.
1. ALL violations of university policy are reported, investigated, and resolved in-house. Most universities have a disciplinary committee or office to handle such complaints. A student or faculty member reports an incident to the committee, or a designated representative, and the committee investigates the claim.
Guess what? Joe Paterno did that. Former SI investigative reporter Joe Posnanski, while researching an upcoming biography about Paterno, unearthed copies of two memos sent from Joe Paterno to then athletic director Tim Curley. THAT is the appropriate line of communication. What happens when that "sacred" line is violated? Well, look at what happened to Mike McQueary, the graduate assistant (later assistant coach) who witnessed an incident in the Penn State locker room showers between Sandusky and an underage boy in 2002. At the time, he reported it to Joe Paterno, who reported it to Curley. Curley must have reported it to then-president Graham Spanier (despite Spanier's recent claims that he was never informed of any wrong-doings by Sandusky), because McQueary spoke to Spanier and Curley in Spanier's office regarding the incident. Spanier said that the incident would be investigated. Supposedly, at that time, McQueary left it alone after that, letting the university's Review Board conduct the investigation, according to university guidelines.
Last year, during a grand jury testimony, McQueary, now an assistant coach with the Nittany Lions, reported that he got frustrated with the seeming disregard he experienced from Spanier. After consulting with his father, a former high school coach, he called the police. Three days after that testimony, McQueary was fired for violation of school policy. The violation? Reporting the incident to local authorities. He violated the designated line of communication, and designated procedure, and paid the price.
Now, would a figure as revered as Joe Paterno been fired for doing the same thing? We don't know, but we do know that Joe Paterno knew that was one POSSIBLE result of violating university procedure. He loved coaching, and loved coaching at Penn State, too much to risk such an outcome. Perhaps he also trusted in the university's process more than McQueary and his dad did. Whatever Paterno's reasoning, we know he did nothing wrong, according to codes of conduct and university policies he sworn to uphold when he signed his contract of employment as Head Coach of Football Operations.
2. Any suspected crime that occurs on university property is reported to the University police. ONLY if the police cannot perform an investigation, due to civil rights or felony levels, or are unable to perform an investigation, are local or state authorities notified. If local or state authorities are to be notified, that decision comes ONLY from the university's Chief of Police, and the University Police department will be the ones to contact the appropriate authorities.
This means it is a violation of university policy for ANY student or faculty or staff member to contact state or local police directly regarding an incident that occurred on university property. The consequences of violating such an act? Students can be placed on probation or suspended, faculty can be placed on administrative leave (either paid or unpaid) or fired, and staff members are typically outright fired.
Does it sound severe? Yes. Does it happen? More often than you'd think. While I am unaware of any incidents at the University at Albany, where I teach, I do know it has happened elsewhere around the country. As a member of the Union of University Professionals, a nationwide teachers union for University instructors, I have heard of such cases. Often the UUP attempts to fight these cases on behalf of the faculty member, claiming "unfair termination." Some of the terminations have been reversed, some not, but the key here is that terminations DO OCCUR.
What I find interesting is that I have never heard, nor can I find on the Internet, any indication that Freeh report officials or law enforcement officials or NCAA investigators have spoken to the Penn State University Police to see what, if anything, they did or didn't do about reported situations regarding Sandusky and young boys. Based on grand jury transcripts from both 2009 and 2011, we do know that university police were contacted and conducted some form of investigation, but I have heard or read NOTHING about the resolution of those investigations, nor whether they were conducted properly or completely.
So who was lax in their responsibility? That, after all, was the crux behind the punishments aimed at AN INDIVIDUAL, Joe Paterno, instead of an institution. Penn State lost scholarships and postseason rights, and was charged a multi-million dollar fine. Those were all punishments aimed against the university. However, the stripping of wins were directed at Joe Paterno himself, an intention that NCAA President Mark Emmert freely admitted when theses sanctions were announced. Clearly, the NCAA wanted to punish JoePa. Since he was dead, they couldn't do things like "black list" him from every coaching at an NCAA school, like Jim Tressel suffered. Instead, they decided that he should not be recognized as the most successful NCAA football coach in history.
My question is -- why? Joe Paterno was guilty of nothing except following the rules and policies of the university, something the NCAA CLAIMS that they favor and encourage in their coaches. After this penalty, though, you wonder if we'll start to see more "hot dog" coaches like Lane Kiffin, who openly disregard university and conference guidelines. The NCAA has opened the door to chaos, and firmly demonstrated that they are more interested in being an authoritative despot than a crusader for fairness.
And what message are they sending in regards to the NEW winningest football coach in NCAA history? By stripping JoePa of those wins, that title now belongs to Bobby Bowden, the former Florida State Seminoles coach who was refiled for continuing to play players ARRESTED and CHARGED with serious crimes. He was also notorious for not only covering up a major academic cheating scandal involving nearly half of his football players, but then encouraging an assistant coach to determine if such widespread cheating could be quietly instituted in other courses, to help prevent key players from being benched for academic probation. Is THIS the epitome of football coaches that the NCAA wants to spotlight? There seems to be a MASSIVE disjoint between the rhetoric spouted by Emmert and the NCAA and the actions taken by them.
How is that important here? So many reporters are screaming that Joe Paterno had no heart and that he was reckless and careless in not reporting the sexual behavior of Jerry Sandusky to the local or state police. That outcry was what led the NCAA to posthumously strip JoePa of enough victories to remove him as the winningest coach in NCAA football history.
Here's a shocker for all of you -- HE DID THE RIGHT THING!
Did he do the right thing MORALLY? No. Did he do the right thing according to the university rules that he had followed so diligently for over 30 years? ABSOLUTELY! Remember, Penn State had NEVER suffered from major NCAA infractions or penalties during Paterno's reign as head coach, mainly because he followed the rules (and insisted his players do so) with almost military diligence. To step outside the boundaries of university accountability and structure would have been unthinkable for him.
For those people still reading this, whose minds are rational enough to prevent their own bias to boil over and turn away from this post in disgust, let me explain a few things about the communication and enforcement structure at major universities. Who knows? You might learn something.
1. ALL violations of university policy are reported, investigated, and resolved in-house. Most universities have a disciplinary committee or office to handle such complaints. A student or faculty member reports an incident to the committee, or a designated representative, and the committee investigates the claim.
Guess what? Joe Paterno did that. Former SI investigative reporter Joe Posnanski, while researching an upcoming biography about Paterno, unearthed copies of two memos sent from Joe Paterno to then athletic director Tim Curley. THAT is the appropriate line of communication. What happens when that "sacred" line is violated? Well, look at what happened to Mike McQueary, the graduate assistant (later assistant coach) who witnessed an incident in the Penn State locker room showers between Sandusky and an underage boy in 2002. At the time, he reported it to Joe Paterno, who reported it to Curley. Curley must have reported it to then-president Graham Spanier (despite Spanier's recent claims that he was never informed of any wrong-doings by Sandusky), because McQueary spoke to Spanier and Curley in Spanier's office regarding the incident. Spanier said that the incident would be investigated. Supposedly, at that time, McQueary left it alone after that, letting the university's Review Board conduct the investigation, according to university guidelines.
Last year, during a grand jury testimony, McQueary, now an assistant coach with the Nittany Lions, reported that he got frustrated with the seeming disregard he experienced from Spanier. After consulting with his father, a former high school coach, he called the police. Three days after that testimony, McQueary was fired for violation of school policy. The violation? Reporting the incident to local authorities. He violated the designated line of communication, and designated procedure, and paid the price.
Now, would a figure as revered as Joe Paterno been fired for doing the same thing? We don't know, but we do know that Joe Paterno knew that was one POSSIBLE result of violating university procedure. He loved coaching, and loved coaching at Penn State, too much to risk such an outcome. Perhaps he also trusted in the university's process more than McQueary and his dad did. Whatever Paterno's reasoning, we know he did nothing wrong, according to codes of conduct and university policies he sworn to uphold when he signed his contract of employment as Head Coach of Football Operations.
2. Any suspected crime that occurs on university property is reported to the University police. ONLY if the police cannot perform an investigation, due to civil rights or felony levels, or are unable to perform an investigation, are local or state authorities notified. If local or state authorities are to be notified, that decision comes ONLY from the university's Chief of Police, and the University Police department will be the ones to contact the appropriate authorities.
This means it is a violation of university policy for ANY student or faculty or staff member to contact state or local police directly regarding an incident that occurred on university property. The consequences of violating such an act? Students can be placed on probation or suspended, faculty can be placed on administrative leave (either paid or unpaid) or fired, and staff members are typically outright fired.
Does it sound severe? Yes. Does it happen? More often than you'd think. While I am unaware of any incidents at the University at Albany, where I teach, I do know it has happened elsewhere around the country. As a member of the Union of University Professionals, a nationwide teachers union for University instructors, I have heard of such cases. Often the UUP attempts to fight these cases on behalf of the faculty member, claiming "unfair termination." Some of the terminations have been reversed, some not, but the key here is that terminations DO OCCUR.
What I find interesting is that I have never heard, nor can I find on the Internet, any indication that Freeh report officials or law enforcement officials or NCAA investigators have spoken to the Penn State University Police to see what, if anything, they did or didn't do about reported situations regarding Sandusky and young boys. Based on grand jury transcripts from both 2009 and 2011, we do know that university police were contacted and conducted some form of investigation, but I have heard or read NOTHING about the resolution of those investigations, nor whether they were conducted properly or completely.
So who was lax in their responsibility? That, after all, was the crux behind the punishments aimed at AN INDIVIDUAL, Joe Paterno, instead of an institution. Penn State lost scholarships and postseason rights, and was charged a multi-million dollar fine. Those were all punishments aimed against the university. However, the stripping of wins were directed at Joe Paterno himself, an intention that NCAA President Mark Emmert freely admitted when theses sanctions were announced. Clearly, the NCAA wanted to punish JoePa. Since he was dead, they couldn't do things like "black list" him from every coaching at an NCAA school, like Jim Tressel suffered. Instead, they decided that he should not be recognized as the most successful NCAA football coach in history.
My question is -- why? Joe Paterno was guilty of nothing except following the rules and policies of the university, something the NCAA CLAIMS that they favor and encourage in their coaches. After this penalty, though, you wonder if we'll start to see more "hot dog" coaches like Lane Kiffin, who openly disregard university and conference guidelines. The NCAA has opened the door to chaos, and firmly demonstrated that they are more interested in being an authoritative despot than a crusader for fairness.
And what message are they sending in regards to the NEW winningest football coach in NCAA history? By stripping JoePa of those wins, that title now belongs to Bobby Bowden, the former Florida State Seminoles coach who was refiled for continuing to play players ARRESTED and CHARGED with serious crimes. He was also notorious for not only covering up a major academic cheating scandal involving nearly half of his football players, but then encouraging an assistant coach to determine if such widespread cheating could be quietly instituted in other courses, to help prevent key players from being benched for academic probation. Is THIS the epitome of football coaches that the NCAA wants to spotlight? There seems to be a MASSIVE disjoint between the rhetoric spouted by Emmert and the NCAA and the actions taken by them.
NCAA 2012 Preview Part III - Cruising the West Coast
Time to finish the preview. I hit the three Western conferences and the independents (who will grow next year when the WAC disbands).
Pac-12 North division
1. Oregon Ducks (7-2/10-2): Redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota beat out last season's backup Bryan Bennett for the quarterback position. Mariota inherits excellent receivers and a strong backfield, thus ensuring another explosive offense. The defense look better than last season's, but they are still not the top defense in the conference.
2. Stanford Cardinal (6-3/8-4): Andrew Luck may be gone, but there are still high hopes among Cardinal fans. A deep backfield supports the time necessary for new quarterback Josh Nunes to get comfortable. That won't take too long, as Nunes played some last season when the team led by enought. Nunes had it a bit tougher than Luck did, as the best wide receiver and starting tight end are gone.
3. California Golden Bears (3-6/5-7): QB Zach Maynard has WR Keenan Allen and RB Isi Sofele, but that's about it. Also, Maynard threw too many interceptions last season for fans to feel comfortable. The defense is also rebuilt, having lost six starters from last season. The only thing favoring Cal is a weak division.
4. Oregon State Beavers (3-6/4-8): Beavers coaches are hoping for an improved offensive backfield, led by freshman Storm Woods. They may not need it, as most of the pieces of the 19th ranked passing offense return. The defensive secondary is good, but the line has holes, making them susceptible to runs.
5. Washington State Cougars (2-7/4-8): Things look bleak for the Cougars. The passing game is potent, but the running game is practically non-existent. Worse, the defense is in shambles, with no capable linebackers and limited defensive end talent.
6. Washington Huskies (2-7/4-8): QB Kevin Price is good, but he must stay healthy, as he doesn't have a capable backup. The passing attack will dominate the playbook, as the running attack is weak. The defense should be slightly better, but they ranked 108th last year, so the improvement will hardly be noticed. A tough schedule, with four of their first six opponents being ranked, makes their season worse.
Pac-12 South division
1. USC Trojans (9-0/12-0): Many players, like QB Matt Barkley, returned this season in order to play in the postseason after a two-year ban. This gives the Trojans one of the most talented and deepest rosters of any team in the country.
2. Utah Utes (7-2/10-2): QB Jordan Wynn is back and healthy, but he has a thin receiving corps. The offensive backfield is strong, but the line has some holes, making it more difficult for the runner to gain speed. The defense is strong, which will make it hard for opponents.
3. UCLA Bruins (5-4/6-6): The offense is clearly a patchwork in progress. The line is iffy, the best receiver is tight end Joseph Fauria, and three players are still competing for starting QB. Apparently new coach Jim Mora Jr likes the competition, but he's not giving the offense time to gel before the season. The defense is better, with a talented crew of linebackers and corners, but the line needs some work.
4. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/4-8): New coach Rich Rodriguez is shaking up the offense, like he has everywhere he has gone. WB Mike Scott is inexperienced, which won't help the transition to the new offense. The backfield looks good, but limited experienced receivers makes RichRod's preferred play-action passing attack hard to implement.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-6/4-8): The new quarterback has little experience, and has limited experience to throw to, either. The defense shows some promise, but the Sun Devils won't likely look good until they play Colorado on Oct 11th.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (0-9/1-11): The offensive line is strong, but that's the only offensive bright spot. The best wide receiver injured his ACL during spring practice, and teh backfield suffered from a transfer. The defense looks better than last year, but it still won't be enough.
PAC-12 Winner: USC Trojans
Mountain West
1. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-1/9-3): The Wolf Pack move up to the Mountain West in the perfect season, as the Mountain West loses TCU and Boise has lost its punch. The offense returns most of last year's starters. While the defense needs some work, they'll make quick work on the rest of the conference.
2. Wyoming Cowboys (6-2/8-4): The passing game has improved, but the running game remains the strongest part of their offense. An improved defense makes the Cowboys a tough opponent.
3. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3/7-5): The Bulldogs' offense remains strong, returning 9 of their starters from last year. The defense returns seven starters, but the defense was poor last year, so the experience may not help much.
4. San Diego State Aztecs (4-4/7-5): A new quarterback and running back slows the offense ranked 30th last year. The defense also lost starters, but they aren't impacted so much, as the second string gained plenty of experience by being rotated into the lineup frequently.
5. Colorado State Rams (4-4/5-7): New QB Garrett Grayson has all four of 2011's top receivers available. Combine that with a strong backfield, and this will be one of the best offenses in the conference. A weak defensive line makes it tougher for them, as that offense has to keep scoring to remain ahead.
6. Hawaii Warriors (4-4/6-6): New coach Norm Chow comes into a unique situation at Hawaii -- no clear quarterback, and whoever wins will be inexperienced. Per usual, Hawaii has plenty of receivers, but an iffy quarterback might ground them. Believe it or not, that might HELP them, as they have another unique situation -- a strong corps of runners. A rebuilt defense, especially on the line, hurts them, though.
7. Boise State Broncos (3-5/4-8): No, your eyes are not deceiving you. For perhaps the first time in 12 years, the Broncos may have a losing season. Why? This entire team is rebuilt, as they lost 17 starters between the offense and defense.Their most stable position is the offensive line, but they only have one experienced running back.
8. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6/4-9): The Rebels will be running, behind a strong offensive line and quick backfield. They'll need to run, as QB Caleb Herring has completed less than half of his passes, and he has a slew of inexperienced wide receivers.
9. Air Force Falcons (2-6/3-9): Near the bottom of the conference is a strange place for the Falcons, but a team already rebuilding suffered a terrible hit last week when five key players, all projected starters, were dismissed from the team for disciplinary reasons. Three receivers and two defensive secondary players were released from a squad already suffering on both sides of the ball. It'll be a tough year for the Air Force Academy, but that may not be too bad -- the military academies love to teach character in the face of adversity.
10. New Mexico Lobos (0-8/2-10): This team has some experience, but they still have a long way to go to improve. This season could have been their best chance to rise into the upper half of the conference, but they aren't ready for that.
WAC
This will be the last year of WAC football, despite adding former FCS teams Texas State and UTSA (aka Texas-San Antonio)
1. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-0/9-3): A powerful offense, filled with returning stars, and a stingy defense makes the Bulldogs the favorites to win the final WAC football title.
2. San Jose State Spartans (5-1/6-6): QB Matt Faulkner and most of his favorite targets return, so the passing offense is strong. The running game lacks, though, as their best running back, and only ground weapon last season, has left.
3. Utah State Aggies (4-2/6-6): RB Kerwynn Willians is their top offensive player. QB Chuckie Keeton has to work with a receiving corps bereft of experience. The defense looks to be better than last year, but they still have holes, especially in the secondary.
4. Idaho Vandals (2-4/3-9): The new quarterback has a strong corps of targets. There are also plenty of runners to take the heat off the passing game, but few of them have experience. The defense is also woefully inexperienced, so they aren't likely to improve from last year's 98th ranking.
5. Texas State Bobcats (2-4/1-11): Coach Dennis Franchione was not happy about the two blowouts suffered against FBS opponents last season. Knowing they were stepping up to FBS this year, he has worked tireless in spring practice to toughen his team. Hopefully it'll work, as the talent is limited. They have only one decent wide receiver, although he is complemented by two good tight ends. The quarterback battle is still raging, but whoever wins the starting role has limited on-field experience. The Bobcats have a good runner, but practically no talented backups. Inexperienced linebackers and a rebuilt defensive line makes that side of the ball vulnerable, too.
6. New Mexico State Aggies (1-5/3-9): Facing independent status, they were hoping for a strong season. Instead, they'll demonstrate why no conference wants them. QB Matt Christian returns, but lacks his two best receivers from last season. While RB Kenny Turner is back, he gets little help from a rebuilt offensive line. The defense is porous.
7. UTSA Roadrunners (0-6/2-10): The Roadrunners play all of their non-conference games against FCS opponents, and they'll only win two of six. Already thin on talent, they took a hit recently when two potential starters were arrested for robbery.
Independents
There should be at least three more independents next season, although BYU may return to a conference.
1. BYU Cougars (10-2): BYU has certainly benefited from independent status, putting together a string of successful seasons. That streak will continue, as QB Riley Nelson returns with RB Michael Alista behind him. The Cougars have some good receivers, but not too many, making them thin on replacements and backups. The defense is only slightly worse than last year.
2. Navy Midshipmen (8-4): The defense lost their best linebacker in spring practice, but they've had time to shore it up. They still have one of the best running attacks in the nation. They moved QB Kriss Proctor to running back (although he may still take some snaps in the wildcat formation), so full-time QB duties fall on Trey Miller, who needs to improve on his consistency.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6): Everyone thinks the Irish will have a great season, but I don't see it. Sophomore Everett Golson won the starting QB position, but he lacks a quick release necessary against the quality defenses they will face. Worse, tight end Tyler Eibert is their best receiver, so they lack a good downfield attack. They do have two strong running backs, so they can run. Opponents will run against them, too, as the defensive line has holes.
4. Army Black Knights (6-6): A rare non-losing season for the Cadets, supported by an offensive backfield that may be ranked the best in the country for the second consecutive year. Scrambling QB Trent Steelman gains as many yards rushing as he does passing -- another Tebow clone. The defense is much improved, especially in the linebacking corps, which explains their non-losing record.
Pac-12 North division
1. Oregon Ducks (7-2/10-2): Redshirt freshman Marcus Mariota beat out last season's backup Bryan Bennett for the quarterback position. Mariota inherits excellent receivers and a strong backfield, thus ensuring another explosive offense. The defense look better than last season's, but they are still not the top defense in the conference.
2. Stanford Cardinal (6-3/8-4): Andrew Luck may be gone, but there are still high hopes among Cardinal fans. A deep backfield supports the time necessary for new quarterback Josh Nunes to get comfortable. That won't take too long, as Nunes played some last season when the team led by enought. Nunes had it a bit tougher than Luck did, as the best wide receiver and starting tight end are gone.
3. California Golden Bears (3-6/5-7): QB Zach Maynard has WR Keenan Allen and RB Isi Sofele, but that's about it. Also, Maynard threw too many interceptions last season for fans to feel comfortable. The defense is also rebuilt, having lost six starters from last season. The only thing favoring Cal is a weak division.
4. Oregon State Beavers (3-6/4-8): Beavers coaches are hoping for an improved offensive backfield, led by freshman Storm Woods. They may not need it, as most of the pieces of the 19th ranked passing offense return. The defensive secondary is good, but the line has holes, making them susceptible to runs.
5. Washington State Cougars (2-7/4-8): Things look bleak for the Cougars. The passing game is potent, but the running game is practically non-existent. Worse, the defense is in shambles, with no capable linebackers and limited defensive end talent.
6. Washington Huskies (2-7/4-8): QB Kevin Price is good, but he must stay healthy, as he doesn't have a capable backup. The passing attack will dominate the playbook, as the running attack is weak. The defense should be slightly better, but they ranked 108th last year, so the improvement will hardly be noticed. A tough schedule, with four of their first six opponents being ranked, makes their season worse.
Pac-12 South division
1. USC Trojans (9-0/12-0): Many players, like QB Matt Barkley, returned this season in order to play in the postseason after a two-year ban. This gives the Trojans one of the most talented and deepest rosters of any team in the country.
2. Utah Utes (7-2/10-2): QB Jordan Wynn is back and healthy, but he has a thin receiving corps. The offensive backfield is strong, but the line has some holes, making it more difficult for the runner to gain speed. The defense is strong, which will make it hard for opponents.
3. UCLA Bruins (5-4/6-6): The offense is clearly a patchwork in progress. The line is iffy, the best receiver is tight end Joseph Fauria, and three players are still competing for starting QB. Apparently new coach Jim Mora Jr likes the competition, but he's not giving the offense time to gel before the season. The defense is better, with a talented crew of linebackers and corners, but the line needs some work.
4. Arizona Wildcats (3-6/4-8): New coach Rich Rodriguez is shaking up the offense, like he has everywhere he has gone. WB Mike Scott is inexperienced, which won't help the transition to the new offense. The backfield looks good, but limited experienced receivers makes RichRod's preferred play-action passing attack hard to implement.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-6/4-8): The new quarterback has little experience, and has limited experience to throw to, either. The defense shows some promise, but the Sun Devils won't likely look good until they play Colorado on Oct 11th.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (0-9/1-11): The offensive line is strong, but that's the only offensive bright spot. The best wide receiver injured his ACL during spring practice, and teh backfield suffered from a transfer. The defense looks better than last year, but it still won't be enough.
PAC-12 Winner: USC Trojans
Mountain West
1. Nevada Wolf Pack (7-1/9-3): The Wolf Pack move up to the Mountain West in the perfect season, as the Mountain West loses TCU and Boise has lost its punch. The offense returns most of last year's starters. While the defense needs some work, they'll make quick work on the rest of the conference.
2. Wyoming Cowboys (6-2/8-4): The passing game has improved, but the running game remains the strongest part of their offense. An improved defense makes the Cowboys a tough opponent.
3. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3/7-5): The Bulldogs' offense remains strong, returning 9 of their starters from last year. The defense returns seven starters, but the defense was poor last year, so the experience may not help much.
4. San Diego State Aztecs (4-4/7-5): A new quarterback and running back slows the offense ranked 30th last year. The defense also lost starters, but they aren't impacted so much, as the second string gained plenty of experience by being rotated into the lineup frequently.
5. Colorado State Rams (4-4/5-7): New QB Garrett Grayson has all four of 2011's top receivers available. Combine that with a strong backfield, and this will be one of the best offenses in the conference. A weak defensive line makes it tougher for them, as that offense has to keep scoring to remain ahead.
6. Hawaii Warriors (4-4/6-6): New coach Norm Chow comes into a unique situation at Hawaii -- no clear quarterback, and whoever wins will be inexperienced. Per usual, Hawaii has plenty of receivers, but an iffy quarterback might ground them. Believe it or not, that might HELP them, as they have another unique situation -- a strong corps of runners. A rebuilt defense, especially on the line, hurts them, though.
7. Boise State Broncos (3-5/4-8): No, your eyes are not deceiving you. For perhaps the first time in 12 years, the Broncos may have a losing season. Why? This entire team is rebuilt, as they lost 17 starters between the offense and defense.Their most stable position is the offensive line, but they only have one experienced running back.
8. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6/4-9): The Rebels will be running, behind a strong offensive line and quick backfield. They'll need to run, as QB Caleb Herring has completed less than half of his passes, and he has a slew of inexperienced wide receivers.
9. Air Force Falcons (2-6/3-9): Near the bottom of the conference is a strange place for the Falcons, but a team already rebuilding suffered a terrible hit last week when five key players, all projected starters, were dismissed from the team for disciplinary reasons. Three receivers and two defensive secondary players were released from a squad already suffering on both sides of the ball. It'll be a tough year for the Air Force Academy, but that may not be too bad -- the military academies love to teach character in the face of adversity.
10. New Mexico Lobos (0-8/2-10): This team has some experience, but they still have a long way to go to improve. This season could have been their best chance to rise into the upper half of the conference, but they aren't ready for that.
WAC
This will be the last year of WAC football, despite adding former FCS teams Texas State and UTSA (aka Texas-San Antonio)
1. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-0/9-3): A powerful offense, filled with returning stars, and a stingy defense makes the Bulldogs the favorites to win the final WAC football title.
2. San Jose State Spartans (5-1/6-6): QB Matt Faulkner and most of his favorite targets return, so the passing offense is strong. The running game lacks, though, as their best running back, and only ground weapon last season, has left.
3. Utah State Aggies (4-2/6-6): RB Kerwynn Willians is their top offensive player. QB Chuckie Keeton has to work with a receiving corps bereft of experience. The defense looks to be better than last year, but they still have holes, especially in the secondary.
4. Idaho Vandals (2-4/3-9): The new quarterback has a strong corps of targets. There are also plenty of runners to take the heat off the passing game, but few of them have experience. The defense is also woefully inexperienced, so they aren't likely to improve from last year's 98th ranking.
5. Texas State Bobcats (2-4/1-11): Coach Dennis Franchione was not happy about the two blowouts suffered against FBS opponents last season. Knowing they were stepping up to FBS this year, he has worked tireless in spring practice to toughen his team. Hopefully it'll work, as the talent is limited. They have only one decent wide receiver, although he is complemented by two good tight ends. The quarterback battle is still raging, but whoever wins the starting role has limited on-field experience. The Bobcats have a good runner, but practically no talented backups. Inexperienced linebackers and a rebuilt defensive line makes that side of the ball vulnerable, too.
6. New Mexico State Aggies (1-5/3-9): Facing independent status, they were hoping for a strong season. Instead, they'll demonstrate why no conference wants them. QB Matt Christian returns, but lacks his two best receivers from last season. While RB Kenny Turner is back, he gets little help from a rebuilt offensive line. The defense is porous.
7. UTSA Roadrunners (0-6/2-10): The Roadrunners play all of their non-conference games against FCS opponents, and they'll only win two of six. Already thin on talent, they took a hit recently when two potential starters were arrested for robbery.
Independents
There should be at least three more independents next season, although BYU may return to a conference.
1. BYU Cougars (10-2): BYU has certainly benefited from independent status, putting together a string of successful seasons. That streak will continue, as QB Riley Nelson returns with RB Michael Alista behind him. The Cougars have some good receivers, but not too many, making them thin on replacements and backups. The defense is only slightly worse than last year.
2. Navy Midshipmen (8-4): The defense lost their best linebacker in spring practice, but they've had time to shore it up. They still have one of the best running attacks in the nation. They moved QB Kriss Proctor to running back (although he may still take some snaps in the wildcat formation), so full-time QB duties fall on Trey Miller, who needs to improve on his consistency.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-6): Everyone thinks the Irish will have a great season, but I don't see it. Sophomore Everett Golson won the starting QB position, but he lacks a quick release necessary against the quality defenses they will face. Worse, tight end Tyler Eibert is their best receiver, so they lack a good downfield attack. They do have two strong running backs, so they can run. Opponents will run against them, too, as the defensive line has holes.
4. Army Black Knights (6-6): A rare non-losing season for the Cadets, supported by an offensive backfield that may be ranked the best in the country for the second consecutive year. Scrambling QB Trent Steelman gains as many yards rushing as he does passing -- another Tebow clone. The defense is much improved, especially in the linebacking corps, which explains their non-losing record.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
NCAA 2012 Preview Part II - New Center
I shift my NCAA College Football preview to the central part of the country, looking at the Big Ten, Big XII, Mid-American Conference, and Conference USA.
Big Ten - Legends Division
1. Michigan Wolverines (7-1/10-2): Michigan has the best shot at a conference title since the 1990's. QB Denard Robinson is square in the Heisman talk, as he is deadly with both his arm and his legs. Robinson is working to be a "pass first" quarterback, but his ability to run will cause additional preparation for pass rushing defenses. Their defense looks better than last year, even with the replacement of two key linemen.
2. Michigan State Spartans (6-2/9-3): Andrew Maxwell replaces Kurt Cousins as quarterback. Maxwell has little experience, but a strong running game and stingy defense will help give him time to get comfortable. After opening against Boise State, the Spartans have a fairly easy schedule until they face Michigan on Oct 20th. After that, though, they face some tough conference opponents, many on the road.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/9-3): Their running game is secure, but they need improvement from quarterback Taylor Martinez. They have plenty of room for improvement, as their passing game was ranked 104th last season.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3/8-4): Iowa loves to pass, but they have some problems with that. They need to break in a new quarterback, and spring practice injuries to wide receivers leaves that corps thin. It will take time for the new offense to gel. They are likely to lose to both in-state rival Iowa State and conference foe Michigan State before they start to see offensive momentum.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (2-6/5-7): New quarterback Kain Colter takes on the spread offense. Like Iowa, it may take time to gel, and a weak defense makes things worse. They also face a tough conference schedule, and may be one of the few conference teams to lose to the scandal-stripped Penn State Nittany Lions.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10): They have many returning starters, but they only reached a 3-9 record last year. With improvement from many of their opponents, the Gophers again bring up the rear in this division.
Big Ten - Leaders Division
Scandals stripped both Ohio State and Penn State, leaving opportunities for the other teams.
1. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/11-1): The Badgers lost QB Russell Wilson, but the return of Monte Ball wipes away any concern. Ball is an early Heisman favorite, even behind a slightly restructured line. The Badgers have many strong linemen, so the offense line will still be powerful. New quarterback Danny O'Brien has a deeply talented pool of wide receivers and tight ends to help his transition to starter. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada likes the spread formation, and uses it even for running plays. That might help confuse defenses early.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-3/8-4): I would never have thought that my Alma Mater had a shot to place so high, but Purdue isn't quite ready, and key attrition suffered by Ohio State and Penn State opened the door. New coach Tim Beckman likes the spread, which favors backup quarterback Reilly O'Toole. Beckman says he doesn't favor rotating quarterbacks, so if starter Nathan Scheelhaase doesn't improve his consistency, O'Toole may take over starting duties. The Illini defense gained with a Penn State transfer. They couldn't get the Nittany Lions' top runner, but Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young looked good in spring practice, so the inexperienced backfield might do fine. A tough road schedule hurts their chances, but I still like them to improve from their six-game slide last season.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-4/7-5): Preseason analysts have tremendous faith in QB Braxton Miller and new coach Urban Meyer, placing the Buckeyes in the Top 25 despite the housecleaning after "tattoo gate" and Tressel's departure. I think Ohio State will take more time. Their defense is still sturdy, but Meyer plays with offenses. He brings the spread offense to Columbus, and it will take time for these "run first" players to adjust. Remember how long it took Michigan to adjust to RichRod's spread offense? It took two years. While Meyer may have the Buckeyes flowing by the end of this season, it will take nearly all season for them to adjust.
4. Purdue Boilermakers (3-5/6-6): The offensive backfield looks good, if they can avoid injuries. If Purdue wants to do well in this conference, they need to improve their defense. A favorable conference, with easy opponents to close the season, should help get them to a bowl game.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-6/4-8): As of the writing of this blog, the Lions have lost 14 players who played significant time last season. This lean squad is thin at wide receiver and lost many key players: their two best running backs, linemen on both offense and defense, and the defensive secondary. This will be a tough year for QB Matt McGloin and new coach Bill O'Brien.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/1-11): Another long year for Indy, who won't even sneak past weakened Penn State.
Big Ten winner: Wisconsin Badgers
Big XII
This conference added TCU and West Virginia to replace Missouri and Texas A&M, so they might have even improved their competiveness.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-2/10-2): The Mountaineers are primed to win the conference in their first season. QB Geno Smith and a deep receiving corps gives the Mountaineers the best passing offense in the conference. Their "no huddle" style will tire opposing defenses, who have rarely seen that.The Mountaineers also benefit from a favorable schedule, as they face the toughest conference opponents at home.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/10-2): QB Landry Jones has a thin receiving corps, but running back Dominique Whaley and all-purpose ball-handler Trey Millard will help. The defense has also seen improvement under the tutelage of new coach Mike Stoops.
3. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3/8-4): QB Collin Klein and his stable of receivers look to light up the scoreboard, but if the Wildcats want to compete for the conference title, they need better effort from their defense.
4. Texas Longhorns (5-4/8-4): I don't share the optimism of other preseason analysts who have made Texas a Top 25 team. Their defense is strong, filled with many returning starters, but the offense looks shaky. QB David Ash must improve his consistency and reduce interceptions. They have a good backfield, but a thin receiving corps makes Texas questionable if they fall behind.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-5/7-5): Former Southwest Conference member rejoins some of their old conference mates, and they are tooled to do well. QB Casey Pachall and favorite target Josh Boyce lead a powerful offense, but the defense took a hit in the off-season due to drug arrests and grade probations. I don't think they can stop some of the high-powered offenses they will face in this conference.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/7-5): Most of their powerful offense returns, but the defense remains a weak spot. They might improve from last season's 119th rank, but I don't think they'll improve enough.
7. Iowa State Cyclones (3-6/6-6): QB Steele Jantz won the quarterback battle, but he knows he'll be the starter only as long as his consistency holds out. The defensive line is weak, but a good secondary will help slow opposing passing attacks. They could start 3-0, but it tough from there.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-6/5-7): With the loss of QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, this team will drop the most in the conference. A freshman QB and redesigned lines (on both offense and defense) marks a rebuilding year for the Cowboys.
9. Baylor Bears (1-8/3-9): RG3 was most of the Bears offense last year, so now Baylor must face life without him. With a porous defense and new offense led by QB Nick Florence (who attempted only 12 passes last season), Baylor falls back to familiar territory.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10): Charlie Weis assumes control of a team in disarray. Weis brings back sloppy Dayne Crist, who still had one year of eligibility when he left Notre Dame. His experience won't help much, and Weis' dependence on him means they need to rework the offense next season when Crist is gone.
Conference USA - East division
1. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-1/8-4): Lots of returning starters keep the offense hot and the defense quick. They have a tough non-conference schedule, but they should run through their conference schedule.
2. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-2/8-4): Marshall's chances took a big boost when they gained two former Penn State players, improving both their receiving corps and defense. Suddenly Marshall becomes a contender.
3. East Carolina Pirates (5-3/5-7): Four quarterbacks are battling for the starting position. This battle won't likely be resolved when the season starts, so games will look like passing practice. That's fine, as I don't know how they would improve from last season's 105th ranked rushing offense. The defense still needs to improve, so the Pirates will start slow.
4. UCF Golden Knights (2-6/2-10): What a drop-off between the top half and bottom half of this division! Facing a postseason ban and decommitting recruits, this program is in trouble. They hoped to impress before they left for the Big East next season, but it looks like their last season in Conference USA will be a bust.
5. Memphis Tigers (1-7/3-9): Another team moving to the Big East next year, they should show some improvement on the field, but they need to surprise some opponents if they want to improve on last season's record.
6. UAB Blazers (1-7/1-11): The offense has some more experience, but they need to add consistency this season. The defense is slow, which means this team will fall behind early and stay there.
Conference USA - West division
1. Houston Cougars (6-2/10-2): QB Case Keenum's departure slows the offense, but Cotton Turner looked good in relief last season. With a strong receiving corps and stable backfield, Houston will still score. An improved defense also boosts them.
2. Rice Owls (5-3/7-5): QB Taylor McHargue gains a more experienced wide receiving corps and a good backfield. While the defense still needs work, Rice should be an improved team this season. They also have a scheduling advantage, as their toughest opponents come to them.
3. SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6): J.J. McDermott and Kyle Padron are both goen, so a quarterback who took NO snaps last season now leads the Mustangs offense. A weak backfield leaves the offense struggling. Spring practice injuries in the defensive secondary means the Mustangs will start slowly, but they should improve as the season progresses.
4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4/5-7): Kalen Henderson takes over the quarterback reins from departing G.J. Kinne, which is a major step backwards. The rushing game is a strength of this team, but a thin line means they are susceptible to injuries.
5. UTEP Miners (2-6/3-9): Carson Meger assumes the quarterback duties, but his interception percentage is too high to provide much faith. The offensive backfield is good, but some holes in the offensive line makes the running game questionable.
6. Tulane Green Wave (1-7/2-10): A new and revamped offense won't get much support from a weak defense, so this will be a long season for Tulane fans.
Conference USA winner: Southern Miss
MAC - East division
UMass moves up to FBS and replaces Temple.
1. Ohio Bobcats (8-0/11/1): QB Tyler Tettleton threw for over 3000 yards last season. If the offensive line can protect him better, he could hit 4000 this season. The defense is good enough to slow opponents, allowing the offense to shred opponents.
2. Bowling Green Falcons (6-2/8-4): QB Matt Schilz has plenty of powerful targets. That's good, because the running game looks weak. The defense needs some work, too. The Falcons should improve as the season progresses, but they won't catch Ohio.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/6-6): RB Trayion Durham will dominate, giving time for a new quarterback and thin receiving corps to develop. A strong defense will help make a run-oriented offense work.
4. Akron Zips (3-5/5-7): Junior QB Clayton Moore needs to improve if Akron wants to compete. He has decent receivers and running back Jawon Chisholm to help the offense. The offense has to produce, as the defense is poor, so Akron must score to win.
5. Miami Ohio Redhawks (3-5/4-8): A new quarterback and weak backfield cripples the offense. The defense is good, so they'll slow other teams.
6. UMass Minutemen (2-6/3-9): New coach Charley Molnar is looking for a new quarterback after concussion issues have benched Kellen Pagel. He gains a couple of transfers from big-time programs, so this squad won't stink, but it's a huge step up to FBS.
7. Buffalo Bulls (1-7/2-10): Strong RB Branden Oliver will keep the running game moving. That's good, as a new quarterback and inexperienced receivers makes the passing game questionable. The defense is improving, but holes in the secondary makes it hard.
MAC - West division
1. Toledo Rockets (6-2/8-4): They lost their best receiver, Eric Page, to the NFL, but there are still quality receivers on the team. They will rotate between two strong senior quarterbacks, with little difference between them. The running game lost their two most productive players, so the passing game will dominate. The defense has shown improvement, which should slow opponents enough for Toledo to win.
2. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3/8-4): They lost quarterback and leading rusher Chandler Harnish to the Colts, so the pressure is on new quarterback Jordan Lynch. He has help with a strong receiving corps and returning RB Jasmin Hopkins. The defense took hits in the losses of CB Devon Butler and safety Tommy Davis.
3. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5): QB Alex Calder lost his favorite target from last year, Jordan White, to the Jets, but the size and experience of the wide receiving squad is large enough to make up the loss.The running game and defense are not so strong, but there is room for development. This team will get better as the season progresses.
4. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/6-6): QB Alex Gillett has a large number of inexperienced receivers, so the running game will play a larger role until they develop. The defense is strong, so this team has a good core. If the younger players develop sooner than expected, they could move up to second place.
5. Ball State Cardinals (3-5/5-7): QB Keith Wenning is ready for another good year, but he needs to break in some new receivers. RB Jawan Edwards will allow them time to develop. A poor defense and tough road schedule will hamper this team's development.
6. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Ryan Radcliff must reduce the number of interceptions for this team to develop, especially since there doesn't seem to be much assistance coming from the offensive backfield or the defense.
MAC Wiinner: Ohio Bobcats
Big Ten - Legends Division
1. Michigan Wolverines (7-1/10-2): Michigan has the best shot at a conference title since the 1990's. QB Denard Robinson is square in the Heisman talk, as he is deadly with both his arm and his legs. Robinson is working to be a "pass first" quarterback, but his ability to run will cause additional preparation for pass rushing defenses. Their defense looks better than last year, even with the replacement of two key linemen.
2. Michigan State Spartans (6-2/9-3): Andrew Maxwell replaces Kurt Cousins as quarterback. Maxwell has little experience, but a strong running game and stingy defense will help give him time to get comfortable. After opening against Boise State, the Spartans have a fairly easy schedule until they face Michigan on Oct 20th. After that, though, they face some tough conference opponents, many on the road.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3/9-3): Their running game is secure, but they need improvement from quarterback Taylor Martinez. They have plenty of room for improvement, as their passing game was ranked 104th last season.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3/8-4): Iowa loves to pass, but they have some problems with that. They need to break in a new quarterback, and spring practice injuries to wide receivers leaves that corps thin. It will take time for the new offense to gel. They are likely to lose to both in-state rival Iowa State and conference foe Michigan State before they start to see offensive momentum.
5. Northwestern Wildcats (2-6/5-7): New quarterback Kain Colter takes on the spread offense. Like Iowa, it may take time to gel, and a weak defense makes things worse. They also face a tough conference schedule, and may be one of the few conference teams to lose to the scandal-stripped Penn State Nittany Lions.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10): They have many returning starters, but they only reached a 3-9 record last year. With improvement from many of their opponents, the Gophers again bring up the rear in this division.
Big Ten - Leaders Division
Scandals stripped both Ohio State and Penn State, leaving opportunities for the other teams.
1. Wisconsin Badgers (7-1/11-1): The Badgers lost QB Russell Wilson, but the return of Monte Ball wipes away any concern. Ball is an early Heisman favorite, even behind a slightly restructured line. The Badgers have many strong linemen, so the offense line will still be powerful. New quarterback Danny O'Brien has a deeply talented pool of wide receivers and tight ends to help his transition to starter. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada likes the spread formation, and uses it even for running plays. That might help confuse defenses early.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-3/8-4): I would never have thought that my Alma Mater had a shot to place so high, but Purdue isn't quite ready, and key attrition suffered by Ohio State and Penn State opened the door. New coach Tim Beckman likes the spread, which favors backup quarterback Reilly O'Toole. Beckman says he doesn't favor rotating quarterbacks, so if starter Nathan Scheelhaase doesn't improve his consistency, O'Toole may take over starting duties. The Illini defense gained with a Penn State transfer. They couldn't get the Nittany Lions' top runner, but Josh Ferguson and Donovonn Young looked good in spring practice, so the inexperienced backfield might do fine. A tough road schedule hurts their chances, but I still like them to improve from their six-game slide last season.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-4/7-5): Preseason analysts have tremendous faith in QB Braxton Miller and new coach Urban Meyer, placing the Buckeyes in the Top 25 despite the housecleaning after "tattoo gate" and Tressel's departure. I think Ohio State will take more time. Their defense is still sturdy, but Meyer plays with offenses. He brings the spread offense to Columbus, and it will take time for these "run first" players to adjust. Remember how long it took Michigan to adjust to RichRod's spread offense? It took two years. While Meyer may have the Buckeyes flowing by the end of this season, it will take nearly all season for them to adjust.
4. Purdue Boilermakers (3-5/6-6): The offensive backfield looks good, if they can avoid injuries. If Purdue wants to do well in this conference, they need to improve their defense. A favorable conference, with easy opponents to close the season, should help get them to a bowl game.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-6/4-8): As of the writing of this blog, the Lions have lost 14 players who played significant time last season. This lean squad is thin at wide receiver and lost many key players: their two best running backs, linemen on both offense and defense, and the defensive secondary. This will be a tough year for QB Matt McGloin and new coach Bill O'Brien.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/1-11): Another long year for Indy, who won't even sneak past weakened Penn State.
Big Ten winner: Wisconsin Badgers
Big XII
This conference added TCU and West Virginia to replace Missouri and Texas A&M, so they might have even improved their competiveness.
1. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-2/10-2): The Mountaineers are primed to win the conference in their first season. QB Geno Smith and a deep receiving corps gives the Mountaineers the best passing offense in the conference. Their "no huddle" style will tire opposing defenses, who have rarely seen that.The Mountaineers also benefit from a favorable schedule, as they face the toughest conference opponents at home.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2/10-2): QB Landry Jones has a thin receiving corps, but running back Dominique Whaley and all-purpose ball-handler Trey Millard will help. The defense has also seen improvement under the tutelage of new coach Mike Stoops.
3. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3/8-4): QB Collin Klein and his stable of receivers look to light up the scoreboard, but if the Wildcats want to compete for the conference title, they need better effort from their defense.
4. Texas Longhorns (5-4/8-4): I don't share the optimism of other preseason analysts who have made Texas a Top 25 team. Their defense is strong, filled with many returning starters, but the offense looks shaky. QB David Ash must improve his consistency and reduce interceptions. They have a good backfield, but a thin receiving corps makes Texas questionable if they fall behind.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-5/7-5): Former Southwest Conference member rejoins some of their old conference mates, and they are tooled to do well. QB Casey Pachall and favorite target Josh Boyce lead a powerful offense, but the defense took a hit in the off-season due to drug arrests and grade probations. I don't think they can stop some of the high-powered offenses they will face in this conference.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/7-5): Most of their powerful offense returns, but the defense remains a weak spot. They might improve from last season's 119th rank, but I don't think they'll improve enough.
7. Iowa State Cyclones (3-6/6-6): QB Steele Jantz won the quarterback battle, but he knows he'll be the starter only as long as his consistency holds out. The defensive line is weak, but a good secondary will help slow opposing passing attacks. They could start 3-0, but it tough from there.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-6/5-7): With the loss of QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, this team will drop the most in the conference. A freshman QB and redesigned lines (on both offense and defense) marks a rebuilding year for the Cowboys.
9. Baylor Bears (1-8/3-9): RG3 was most of the Bears offense last year, so now Baylor must face life without him. With a porous defense and new offense led by QB Nick Florence (who attempted only 12 passes last season), Baylor falls back to familiar territory.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/2-10): Charlie Weis assumes control of a team in disarray. Weis brings back sloppy Dayne Crist, who still had one year of eligibility when he left Notre Dame. His experience won't help much, and Weis' dependence on him means they need to rework the offense next season when Crist is gone.
Conference USA - East division
1. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-1/8-4): Lots of returning starters keep the offense hot and the defense quick. They have a tough non-conference schedule, but they should run through their conference schedule.
2. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-2/8-4): Marshall's chances took a big boost when they gained two former Penn State players, improving both their receiving corps and defense. Suddenly Marshall becomes a contender.
3. East Carolina Pirates (5-3/5-7): Four quarterbacks are battling for the starting position. This battle won't likely be resolved when the season starts, so games will look like passing practice. That's fine, as I don't know how they would improve from last season's 105th ranked rushing offense. The defense still needs to improve, so the Pirates will start slow.
4. UCF Golden Knights (2-6/2-10): What a drop-off between the top half and bottom half of this division! Facing a postseason ban and decommitting recruits, this program is in trouble. They hoped to impress before they left for the Big East next season, but it looks like their last season in Conference USA will be a bust.
5. Memphis Tigers (1-7/3-9): Another team moving to the Big East next year, they should show some improvement on the field, but they need to surprise some opponents if they want to improve on last season's record.
6. UAB Blazers (1-7/1-11): The offense has some more experience, but they need to add consistency this season. The defense is slow, which means this team will fall behind early and stay there.
Conference USA - West division
1. Houston Cougars (6-2/10-2): QB Case Keenum's departure slows the offense, but Cotton Turner looked good in relief last season. With a strong receiving corps and stable backfield, Houston will still score. An improved defense also boosts them.
2. Rice Owls (5-3/7-5): QB Taylor McHargue gains a more experienced wide receiving corps and a good backfield. While the defense still needs work, Rice should be an improved team this season. They also have a scheduling advantage, as their toughest opponents come to them.
3. SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6): J.J. McDermott and Kyle Padron are both goen, so a quarterback who took NO snaps last season now leads the Mustangs offense. A weak backfield leaves the offense struggling. Spring practice injuries in the defensive secondary means the Mustangs will start slowly, but they should improve as the season progresses.
4. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4/5-7): Kalen Henderson takes over the quarterback reins from departing G.J. Kinne, which is a major step backwards. The rushing game is a strength of this team, but a thin line means they are susceptible to injuries.
5. UTEP Miners (2-6/3-9): Carson Meger assumes the quarterback duties, but his interception percentage is too high to provide much faith. The offensive backfield is good, but some holes in the offensive line makes the running game questionable.
6. Tulane Green Wave (1-7/2-10): A new and revamped offense won't get much support from a weak defense, so this will be a long season for Tulane fans.
Conference USA winner: Southern Miss
MAC - East division
UMass moves up to FBS and replaces Temple.
1. Ohio Bobcats (8-0/11/1): QB Tyler Tettleton threw for over 3000 yards last season. If the offensive line can protect him better, he could hit 4000 this season. The defense is good enough to slow opponents, allowing the offense to shred opponents.
2. Bowling Green Falcons (6-2/8-4): QB Matt Schilz has plenty of powerful targets. That's good, because the running game looks weak. The defense needs some work, too. The Falcons should improve as the season progresses, but they won't catch Ohio.
3. Kent State Golden Flashes (4-4/6-6): RB Trayion Durham will dominate, giving time for a new quarterback and thin receiving corps to develop. A strong defense will help make a run-oriented offense work.
4. Akron Zips (3-5/5-7): Junior QB Clayton Moore needs to improve if Akron wants to compete. He has decent receivers and running back Jawon Chisholm to help the offense. The offense has to produce, as the defense is poor, so Akron must score to win.
5. Miami Ohio Redhawks (3-5/4-8): A new quarterback and weak backfield cripples the offense. The defense is good, so they'll slow other teams.
6. UMass Minutemen (2-6/3-9): New coach Charley Molnar is looking for a new quarterback after concussion issues have benched Kellen Pagel. He gains a couple of transfers from big-time programs, so this squad won't stink, but it's a huge step up to FBS.
7. Buffalo Bulls (1-7/2-10): Strong RB Branden Oliver will keep the running game moving. That's good, as a new quarterback and inexperienced receivers makes the passing game questionable. The defense is improving, but holes in the secondary makes it hard.
MAC - West division
1. Toledo Rockets (6-2/8-4): They lost their best receiver, Eric Page, to the NFL, but there are still quality receivers on the team. They will rotate between two strong senior quarterbacks, with little difference between them. The running game lost their two most productive players, so the passing game will dominate. The defense has shown improvement, which should slow opponents enough for Toledo to win.
2. Northern Illinois Huskies (5-3/8-4): They lost quarterback and leading rusher Chandler Harnish to the Colts, so the pressure is on new quarterback Jordan Lynch. He has help with a strong receiving corps and returning RB Jasmin Hopkins. The defense took hits in the losses of CB Devon Butler and safety Tommy Davis.
3. Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/7-5): QB Alex Calder lost his favorite target from last year, Jordan White, to the Jets, but the size and experience of the wide receiving squad is large enough to make up the loss.The running game and defense are not so strong, but there is room for development. This team will get better as the season progresses.
4. Eastern Michigan Eagles (4-4/6-6): QB Alex Gillett has a large number of inexperienced receivers, so the running game will play a larger role until they develop. The defense is strong, so this team has a good core. If the younger players develop sooner than expected, they could move up to second place.
5. Ball State Cardinals (3-5/5-7): QB Keith Wenning is ready for another good year, but he needs to break in some new receivers. RB Jawan Edwards will allow them time to develop. A poor defense and tough road schedule will hamper this team's development.
6. Central Michigan Chippewas (2-6/3-9): Senior QB Ryan Radcliff must reduce the number of interceptions for this team to develop, especially since there doesn't seem to be much assistance coming from the offensive backfield or the defense.
MAC Wiinner: Ohio Bobcats
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
NCAA 2012 Preview, Part I -- Eastern outlook
You know, next year this geographical arrangement of conferences will get a lot harder, given the span of both the Pac-12 and the Big East. Still, it works fairly well for one more season. This column focuses on the ACC, Big East, SEC, and Sun Belt.
ACC - Atlantic Division
1. Clemson Tigers (6-2 in conference/8-4 overall): The top offensive contributors from last year are back, especially QB Tajh Boyd and RB Andre Ellington. They lost some talent on the offensive line, but the new bunch has looked good in spring practice. The key focus is the defensive, especially after the 70-33 Orange Bowl dusting they suffered.
2. Florida State Seminoles (5-3/7-5): Like last season, the Seminoles will live and die on the defensive side of the ball. The offensive backfield has more experience than last season, but still lacks enough speed. Multiple capable receivers give them depth in the passing game, and should keep opposing defenses on their toes. Their schedule is highly favorable, with two FCS teams.
3. NC State Wolf Pack (3-5/6-6): A new quarterback will shift their offensive focus to the running game. That's good, but they'll need a stable runner to spell starter James Washington. The defense is good, but it has glaring holes in the secondary.
4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-5/6-6): Most of the offense, especially the line, is being rebuilt. The defense is strong, and the team might find life later in the season as the new offense gels, but it'll be a tough year for Deacon fans.
5. Boston College Eagles (3-5/5-7): The Eagles won't improve much from last season, especially in comparison to the rest of the conference.
6. Maryland Terrapins (0-8/2-10): The offense will be based on the running game, as the quarterback position needs work; it also needs a designated starter. The offensive line is stable, but they are a bit undersized. A weak defense also strangles them.
ACC - Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/11-1): The Hokies need a second stable receiver to complement Marcus Davis. There are questions about the secondary, but the defensive line is strong, which will be great for a conference whose teams are likely to run this season.
2. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/7-5): Stephen Morris gains the quarterback position, but the top wide receiver roles are still up for grabs. The offense will start the season as a mishmash, but a strong defense will enable them to win.
3. Virginia Cavaliers (5-3/7-5): QB Michael Rocco has eight returning starters on offense, but only one is a wide receiver. Most of his targets have little experience. A strong defense will keep Virginia in games until the receiving corps gains experience.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4/6-6): Plenty of returning starters has Tech's hopes flying high. However, they started last season strongly, and then faded. This is the same group, and I'm not sure the coaches have identified what really caused the letdowns.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5/5-7): New coach Larry Fedora has to help this team emerge from scandal. They have a good offense, with returning stars QB Bryn Renner, WR Erik Highsmith, and RB Gio Bernard, but a weak defense will give them problems.
6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/1-11): The passing game looks good, but they don't have a stable backfield. Nearly the full defense returns, but they weren't good last year, so I don't know how much the experience helps.
ACC Winner: Virginia Tech Hokies
Big East
The conference welcomes back Temple, but the quality goes down as West Virginia moves to the Big XII conference.
1. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2/10-2): Greg Schiano is now coaching the Tampa Bay Bucs, so Kyle Flood takes over. The offense is strong, led by QB Gary Nova. A deep corps of running backs and wide receivers will keep the squad fresh.
2. Louisville Cardinals (5-2/9-3): Young but experienced QB Terry Bridgewater was the Big East Rookie of the Year last year. He has plenty of returning starters around him. Since so few are seniors, this team should compete for the title next season as well. A favorable early schedule will give them momentum into conference play.
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-3/7-5): This is a rebuilding year, as they lost their quarterback, top receiver, top running back, tight end, and much of their defensive line. New quarterback "Munchie" Legaux has accuracy issues.
4. South Florida Bulls (4-3/5-7): Their normally tight defense is under construction, as the Bulls need to replace key tacklers and pass rushers. The current defenders are quick but small. Most of the offense returns, so they have consistency there.
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-4/5-7): Another rebuilding year for new coach Paul Chryst. Chryst is focusing on the running game, the strength of Wisconsin, his previous team. To be truly successful, though, they need to strengthen the offensive line.
6. Syracuse Orange (2-5/3-9): This team would have been ranked better last week, but injuries during practice to the top two wide receivers has left the offense in shambles. Along with a porous defense, it looks like a tough start for the Orange.
7. Temple Owls (1-6/3-8): The Owls are hoping to avoid being the doormat of the conference again, after having success in the MAC. They have a strong and deep running back corps, but thin wide receiving corps. Their defense is good by MAC standards, but is it Big East worthy?
8. UConn Huskies (1-6/2-9): This is a young team, with mostly sophomores in key offensive positions. A strong defense will keep them in games, but this team needs to gain experience. They may be contenders in 2013 and 2014, but not now.
SEC
The addition of Big XII emigrants Missouri and Texas A&M adds some spice to the SEC this season.
East division
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2/9-3): The preseason highly-ranked defense took a hit in practice last week with the injury to Akeem Auguste, but the squad is deep enough to regain their stride. They have a very favorable schedule, facing most of their toughest opponents at home. I think they'll do well, despite a thin roster of quarterbacks and running backs.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-3/9-3): The offense looks good, but they need more consistency from QB Aaron Murray. He must reduce his interceptions. The wide receiving corps is thin but talented, and the running corps is excellent. The defense is quick and hard-hitting, necessary in this conference.
3. Missouri Tigers (5-3/8-4): Well stocked on offense for their first year in the SEC, QB James Franklin has a great target in WR T.J. Moe. The defense needs some work, especially in the secondary, which is more important in this conference than the Big XII.
4. Tennessee Volunteers (4-4/7-5): The Vols need a strong year from QB Tyler Bray, as the backfield is a mess. They return a strong defense, so they can be competitive, but they are at least a year from returning to the upper echelon of this conference.
5. Florida Gators (2-6/5-7): Sorry, Gators fans, but this team is a mess! Many of your top recruits know that, as they've been jumping ship. That could fracture this team for years to come.The defense should have strength, anchored by safety Matt Elam, but the offense is shaky. New quarterback Jacoby Brissett struggled in practice, and since his backup was injured in practice, they have to rely on him. A thin wide receiving corps makes it worse.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/4-8): Sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith assumes control of an iffy offense. The defense has holes, too, which makes Kentucky a hard sell.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6/4-8): Plenty of starters return from last season's 6-6 squad. They won't surprise anyone this season, so they won't do as well. Most important, QB Jordan Rodgers must reduce his frequency on interceptions.
West division
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1/10-2): This team could repeat as National Champion, although it is hard to replace their four top defenders. The offense is good, but they are a bit slower than last year. With QB A.J. McCarron at the helm, they should still deliver. Michigan is really their only tough challenge until they face LSU on Nov 3rd.
2. LSU Tigers (6-2/10-2): The Honey Badger is no longer on the team, relegated to rehab before he could attract the attention of the NCAA to this program (more than has already been drawn). Without his contribution on defense, and breaking in a new quarterback on offense, develops chinks in the Tigers' armor. An easy early schedule may fool voters into believing the team has another National Championship shot, but I don't think so.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-2/9-3): QB Tyler Wilson lost his top three receivers, but Cobi Hamilton is the clear Number One. The Razorbacks will need more than one stable receiver, especially since RB Knile Davis is still in "non-contact" phase after last season's ankle injury.
4. Texas A&M Aggies (4-4/8-4): A new quarterback shifts the offensive focus to a running game, which just isn't productive enough in this conference. The defensive line is strong, but a slow secondary makes them vulnerable to strong passing attacks.
5. Auburn Tigers (2-5/6-6): With no clear front runner for quarterback and a thin running corps, the offense needs lots of work. The defense is improving, and an easy non-conference schedule will help them, but they face many of the toughest teams in the conference.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-6/6-6): The sudden departure of WR coach Angelo Mirando shakes up the offense. It has to affect some of the players, especially the wide receiving corps. The roster is deep, but how focused will they be?
7. Ole Miss Rebels (2-6/4-8): Ole Miss already suffers losses before the season begins, as WR Tobias Singleton abruptly left school and other players have been injured in practice. Most of their roster positions are thin, so this team is highly susceptible to injury.
SEC Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
Sun Belt
Southern Alabama joins the Sun Belt as the conference is suddenly becoming viable. If they pick up any teams from the collapse of the WAC after this season, they might become a true football power. I could find little information on the teams of this conference; even the teams' only website had few news items. Many of my predictions are based upon last year's results and how many starters return.
1. Florida International Golden Panthers (7-1/9/3): This is a strong team, and a good schedule helps.
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-1/8-4): Last season's champs have a favorable conference schedule, but a tougher non-conference schedule will hurt. They'll have a higher BCS rank than FIU, but miss the title.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (6-2/8-4): They have a stronger offense this year, which should improve their record, but they'll still fall short in the conference.
4. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (5-3/7-5)
5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-3/6-6)
6. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-5/4-8): A new coach and weak defense makes this season bleak and a rebuilding effort. The offense is good but thin; a tough non-conference schedule could injury players and leave the offense strapped.
7. North Texas Mean Green (3-5/4-8)
8. South Alabama Jaguars (2-6/4-9): South Alabama was a good FCS team, but they aren't quite FBS caliber yet. Their 13-game schedule won't help them, either.
9. Troy Trojans (1-7/1-11): Nearly all of last season's offense returns. They can score, but the question is how much scoring they can prevent. The defense looks to be slightly better than last year, but they were the second worst defense in FBS last season, so that won't help much.
10. Louisiana-Monroe Indians (1-7/1-11)
ACC - Atlantic Division
1. Clemson Tigers (6-2 in conference/8-4 overall): The top offensive contributors from last year are back, especially QB Tajh Boyd and RB Andre Ellington. They lost some talent on the offensive line, but the new bunch has looked good in spring practice. The key focus is the defensive, especially after the 70-33 Orange Bowl dusting they suffered.
2. Florida State Seminoles (5-3/7-5): Like last season, the Seminoles will live and die on the defensive side of the ball. The offensive backfield has more experience than last season, but still lacks enough speed. Multiple capable receivers give them depth in the passing game, and should keep opposing defenses on their toes. Their schedule is highly favorable, with two FCS teams.
3. NC State Wolf Pack (3-5/6-6): A new quarterback will shift their offensive focus to the running game. That's good, but they'll need a stable runner to spell starter James Washington. The defense is good, but it has glaring holes in the secondary.
4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-5/6-6): Most of the offense, especially the line, is being rebuilt. The defense is strong, and the team might find life later in the season as the new offense gels, but it'll be a tough year for Deacon fans.
5. Boston College Eagles (3-5/5-7): The Eagles won't improve much from last season, especially in comparison to the rest of the conference.
6. Maryland Terrapins (0-8/2-10): The offense will be based on the running game, as the quarterback position needs work; it also needs a designated starter. The offensive line is stable, but they are a bit undersized. A weak defense also strangles them.
ACC - Coastal Division
1. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1/11-1): The Hokies need a second stable receiver to complement Marcus Davis. There are questions about the secondary, but the defensive line is strong, which will be great for a conference whose teams are likely to run this season.
2. Miami Hurricanes (5-3/7-5): Stephen Morris gains the quarterback position, but the top wide receiver roles are still up for grabs. The offense will start the season as a mishmash, but a strong defense will enable them to win.
3. Virginia Cavaliers (5-3/7-5): QB Michael Rocco has eight returning starters on offense, but only one is a wide receiver. Most of his targets have little experience. A strong defense will keep Virginia in games until the receiving corps gains experience.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4/6-6): Plenty of returning starters has Tech's hopes flying high. However, they started last season strongly, and then faded. This is the same group, and I'm not sure the coaches have identified what really caused the letdowns.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5/5-7): New coach Larry Fedora has to help this team emerge from scandal. They have a good offense, with returning stars QB Bryn Renner, WR Erik Highsmith, and RB Gio Bernard, but a weak defense will give them problems.
6. Duke Blue Devils (0-8/1-11): The passing game looks good, but they don't have a stable backfield. Nearly the full defense returns, but they weren't good last year, so I don't know how much the experience helps.
ACC Winner: Virginia Tech Hokies
Big East
The conference welcomes back Temple, but the quality goes down as West Virginia moves to the Big XII conference.
1. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2/10-2): Greg Schiano is now coaching the Tampa Bay Bucs, so Kyle Flood takes over. The offense is strong, led by QB Gary Nova. A deep corps of running backs and wide receivers will keep the squad fresh.
2. Louisville Cardinals (5-2/9-3): Young but experienced QB Terry Bridgewater was the Big East Rookie of the Year last year. He has plenty of returning starters around him. Since so few are seniors, this team should compete for the title next season as well. A favorable early schedule will give them momentum into conference play.
3. Cincinnati Bearcats (4-3/7-5): This is a rebuilding year, as they lost their quarterback, top receiver, top running back, tight end, and much of their defensive line. New quarterback "Munchie" Legaux has accuracy issues.
4. South Florida Bulls (4-3/5-7): Their normally tight defense is under construction, as the Bulls need to replace key tacklers and pass rushers. The current defenders are quick but small. Most of the offense returns, so they have consistency there.
5. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-4/5-7): Another rebuilding year for new coach Paul Chryst. Chryst is focusing on the running game, the strength of Wisconsin, his previous team. To be truly successful, though, they need to strengthen the offensive line.
6. Syracuse Orange (2-5/3-9): This team would have been ranked better last week, but injuries during practice to the top two wide receivers has left the offense in shambles. Along with a porous defense, it looks like a tough start for the Orange.
7. Temple Owls (1-6/3-8): The Owls are hoping to avoid being the doormat of the conference again, after having success in the MAC. They have a strong and deep running back corps, but thin wide receiving corps. Their defense is good by MAC standards, but is it Big East worthy?
8. UConn Huskies (1-6/2-9): This is a young team, with mostly sophomores in key offensive positions. A strong defense will keep them in games, but this team needs to gain experience. They may be contenders in 2013 and 2014, but not now.
SEC
The addition of Big XII emigrants Missouri and Texas A&M adds some spice to the SEC this season.
East division
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2/9-3): The preseason highly-ranked defense took a hit in practice last week with the injury to Akeem Auguste, but the squad is deep enough to regain their stride. They have a very favorable schedule, facing most of their toughest opponents at home. I think they'll do well, despite a thin roster of quarterbacks and running backs.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (5-3/9-3): The offense looks good, but they need more consistency from QB Aaron Murray. He must reduce his interceptions. The wide receiving corps is thin but talented, and the running corps is excellent. The defense is quick and hard-hitting, necessary in this conference.
3. Missouri Tigers (5-3/8-4): Well stocked on offense for their first year in the SEC, QB James Franklin has a great target in WR T.J. Moe. The defense needs some work, especially in the secondary, which is more important in this conference than the Big XII.
4. Tennessee Volunteers (4-4/7-5): The Vols need a strong year from QB Tyler Bray, as the backfield is a mess. They return a strong defense, so they can be competitive, but they are at least a year from returning to the upper echelon of this conference.
5. Florida Gators (2-6/5-7): Sorry, Gators fans, but this team is a mess! Many of your top recruits know that, as they've been jumping ship. That could fracture this team for years to come.The defense should have strength, anchored by safety Matt Elam, but the offense is shaky. New quarterback Jacoby Brissett struggled in practice, and since his backup was injured in practice, they have to rely on him. A thin wide receiving corps makes it worse.
6. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/4-8): Sophomore quarterback Maxwell Smith assumes control of an iffy offense. The defense has holes, too, which makes Kentucky a hard sell.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-6/4-8): Plenty of starters return from last season's 6-6 squad. They won't surprise anyone this season, so they won't do as well. Most important, QB Jordan Rodgers must reduce his frequency on interceptions.
West division
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1/10-2): This team could repeat as National Champion, although it is hard to replace their four top defenders. The offense is good, but they are a bit slower than last year. With QB A.J. McCarron at the helm, they should still deliver. Michigan is really their only tough challenge until they face LSU on Nov 3rd.
2. LSU Tigers (6-2/10-2): The Honey Badger is no longer on the team, relegated to rehab before he could attract the attention of the NCAA to this program (more than has already been drawn). Without his contribution on defense, and breaking in a new quarterback on offense, develops chinks in the Tigers' armor. An easy early schedule may fool voters into believing the team has another National Championship shot, but I don't think so.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-2/9-3): QB Tyler Wilson lost his top three receivers, but Cobi Hamilton is the clear Number One. The Razorbacks will need more than one stable receiver, especially since RB Knile Davis is still in "non-contact" phase after last season's ankle injury.
4. Texas A&M Aggies (4-4/8-4): A new quarterback shifts the offensive focus to a running game, which just isn't productive enough in this conference. The defensive line is strong, but a slow secondary makes them vulnerable to strong passing attacks.
5. Auburn Tigers (2-5/6-6): With no clear front runner for quarterback and a thin running corps, the offense needs lots of work. The defense is improving, and an easy non-conference schedule will help them, but they face many of the toughest teams in the conference.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-6/6-6): The sudden departure of WR coach Angelo Mirando shakes up the offense. It has to affect some of the players, especially the wide receiving corps. The roster is deep, but how focused will they be?
7. Ole Miss Rebels (2-6/4-8): Ole Miss already suffers losses before the season begins, as WR Tobias Singleton abruptly left school and other players have been injured in practice. Most of their roster positions are thin, so this team is highly susceptible to injury.
SEC Winner: Alabama Crimson Tide
Sun Belt
Southern Alabama joins the Sun Belt as the conference is suddenly becoming viable. If they pick up any teams from the collapse of the WAC after this season, they might become a true football power. I could find little information on the teams of this conference; even the teams' only website had few news items. Many of my predictions are based upon last year's results and how many starters return.
1. Florida International Golden Panthers (7-1/9/3): This is a strong team, and a good schedule helps.
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-1/8-4): Last season's champs have a favorable conference schedule, but a tougher non-conference schedule will hurt. They'll have a higher BCS rank than FIU, but miss the title.
3. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (6-2/8-4): They have a stronger offense this year, which should improve their record, but they'll still fall short in the conference.
4. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (5-3/7-5)
5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-3/6-6)
6. Florida Atlantic Owls (3-5/4-8): A new coach and weak defense makes this season bleak and a rebuilding effort. The offense is good but thin; a tough non-conference schedule could injury players and leave the offense strapped.
7. North Texas Mean Green (3-5/4-8)
8. South Alabama Jaguars (2-6/4-9): South Alabama was a good FCS team, but they aren't quite FBS caliber yet. Their 13-game schedule won't help them, either.
9. Troy Trojans (1-7/1-11): Nearly all of last season's offense returns. They can score, but the question is how much scoring they can prevent. The defense looks to be slightly better than last year, but they were the second worst defense in FBS last season, so that won't help much.
10. Louisiana-Monroe Indians (1-7/1-11)
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