NFL 2024 Week 18 Power Rankings and Wildcard Round picks

 There were some surprising results in the last week of the season, and those caused some shakeup in the final Power Rankings.

Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  DETROIT LIONS (15-2) [1]

2.  Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) [2]

3.  Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) [5]

4.  Buffalo Bills (13-4) [4]

5.  Minnesota Vikings (14-3) [3]

6.  Baltimore Ravens (12-5) [6]

7.  Green Bay Packers (11-6) [7]

8.  Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) [8]

9.  Washington Commanders (12-5) [9]

10.  Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) [10]

11. Denver Broncos (10-7) [11]

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) [12]

13. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) [13]

14. Seattle Seahawks (10-7) [15]

15. Houston Texans (10-7) [17]

16. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) [14]

Divisional Power Rankings  [Last week's rank]

1.  NFC NORTH [1]

2.  NFC West [3]

3.  AFC West [2]

4.  AFC North [4]

5.  NFC East [5]

6.  AFC East [6]

7.  NFC South [7]

8.  AFC South [8]

Wildcard Round

#5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at #4 Houston Texans (10-7) : These two teams are rather similar.  Both have some talent on offense, but they often fall short.  Both teams rely on tough defenses to stay in games.While Houston has a slightly better defense, the Chargers offense has enough experience to put together a good fourth quarter drive and capture victory.  CHARGES, 24-20

#6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at #3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) : The Steelers have lost their offense.  While their defense is good, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry have shown that they can beat it.  RAVENS, 27-13

#7 Denver Broncos (10-7) at #2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) : It's unusual for all of one conference's games to complete before any of the other conference's. but that's the schedule this postseason.  The Broncos might be the best wildcard team in the AFC, but they face the tenacious and dynamic Bulls offense.  I don't see an upset here.  BILLS, 31-23

#7 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) : The Eagles are a bit banged up, and at the time this column is written we do not know how many of those players might play.  I'm not sure it would matter.  After all, the Packers allowed the struggling Bears to beat them in the final week, and they themselves suffered two key injuries in that game, including to QB Jordan Love.  EAGLES, 24-17

#6 Washington Commanders (12=5) at #3 Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) : There is a large gap between the top two seeds in the NFC and the next two.  While Baker Mayfield has the Bucs rolling, the Commanders have a stiff defense and a strong-armed QB of their own.  COMMANDERS, 23-20

#5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at #4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) : The Rams rested many of their players last week, while the Vikings starters were trounced by the Lions in the second half.  Could that make some people believe the Vikings are prepped for an upset?  No, I don't think so.  The Vi,kings held back the Lions for longer than one half, and that's hard to do against their high-powered offense.  The Rams offense doesn't match, so the Vikings defense will hold them back.  VIKINGS, 31-13

NCAA Bowl results and playoff picks

 It was an interesting bowl season.  Bowl seasons will get even more unpredictable unless the NCAA limits the use of the transfer portal.  Even many of the announcers were discussing the overuse of it.  You may not remember, but when the transfer portal was originally created, it was designed mainly for two categories of players: ones who coach is leaving their program (so they can transfer with their coach) or those losing their scholarship.  Now, in the days of NIL, ANYONE can use it, and too many players are.  I watched TWO games where more than half of the starting squad that played during the season were in the transfer portal.  That's ridiculous!  Realize the stupidity, and near futility, or this effort.  There are 134 FBS colleges, with an average of nine graduating players across all three squads (offense, defense, and special teams).  There are only 32 NFL teams.  Most of these players are not transfering to find a good COACH, but a program that will get them national attention, like an SEC, Big Ten, or playoff team.  Folks, that's about 36-38 teams.  Most of the players in the transfer portal won't get what they want.  Furthermore, by transferring every year, they don't really get the training they need, and that will show up in the NFL combine.  Thus, most of these players will NOT get drafted, and their transfers will be for naught.  Since they transferred more often than their course credits could, they also fail to get a degree, so without an NFL offer, they have no future.  Stay in school dudes!

So, how did the conferences end up?  For my rankings, it is based on PURE bowl games.  Those were the 35 games that did not entail any part of the playoffs, since (with the exception of the losing teams), you are getting multiple results from the same team.  In parentheses, I include the playoff records for that confernece:

1.  American Athletic (6-2)

2.  MAC (5-2) : Congratulations to the conference for this record!  The MAC doesn't usually do well in the bowls.

3.  Big Ten (5-3/4-2 in playoffs)

4.  SEC (6-4/ 2-2 in playoffs)

5.  Sun Belt (4-3)

6.  Independents and Washington State/Pac-12 (1-1/2-0 in playoffs)

7.  Big XII (4-4/0-1 in playoffs)

8.  Mountain West (1-3/0-1 in playoffs)

9.  Conference USA (1-4)

10. ACC (2-9/0-2 in playoffs)

The Big Ten's success is especially surprising, since, with the exception of Minnesota, they were matched against teams with better records and/or higher rankings.  They were the underdog in seven out of eight of their bowl games, yet won four games they weren't supposed to.  Even their losses beat the spread, as Purdue lost by three and Washington lost by only one point, after a furious fourth quarter comeback.  The only real disappointments were the Iowa loss and the near-loss by Minnesota.

Based upon the bowl results, and the first two rounds of the playoffs, we have a new Top 25:

Top 25  [Rank at end of season]

1.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (13-1) [2]

2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) [3]

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) [4]

4.  Oregon Ducks (13-1) [1]

5.  Texas Longhorns (13-2) [7]

6.  Ole Miss Rebels (10-3) [10]

7.  Georgia Bulldogs (11-3) [5]

8.  Indiana Hoosiers (11-2) [6]

9.  Tennessee Volunteers (10-3) [8]

10. Boise State Broncos (13-2) [9]

11. Army Black Knights (12-2) [16]

12. Miami Hurricanes (10-3) [11]

13. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-4) [12]

14. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-3) [14]

15. SMU Mustangs (11-3) [13]

16. BYU Cougars (11-2) [18]

17. UNLV Running Rebels (11-3) [21]

18. Clemson Tigers (10-4) [15]

19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) [17]

20. Memphis Tigers (11-2) [19]

21. Iowa State Cyclones (11-3) [24]

22. Louisville Cardinals (9-4) [22]

23. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [26]

24. Navy Midshipmen (10-3) [25]

25. Illinois Fighting Illini (10-3) [27]

Dropped off: Colorado Buffaloes [#20], Iowa Hawkeyes [#23] 

Playoff picks

Orange Bowl: #1 (7th seed) Notre Dame Fighting Irish v #3 (6th seed) Penn State Nittany Lions : Prior to the Sugar Bowl, I found have picked Note Dame right away.  However, the Bulldogs defense really slowed the Irish offense.  Without a special teams touchdown and an interception return to the red zone, I don't think the Irish would have won.  They will face a defense just as tough in Penn State; perhaps tougher, as the Lions retain more of their regular season starters than Georgia did.  If the Irish use the Sugar Bowl as a wake-up call similar to how Ohio State woke up after their loss to Michigan, then the Irish will triumph.  If not,Penn State could engineer an upset.  NOTRE DAME by six

Cotton Bowl: #2 (8th seed) Ohio State Buckeyes at #5 Texas :Longhorns : The Longhorns may be home, but it won't help them much. They are the team who has struggled the most in victories in the first two rounds, while Ohio State has played with much more intensity and will.  Texas has also faced some key injuries suffered in their last game of the season, the SEC Championship Game, and the playoffs.  Their bench is thinner, and less talented, than that of Ohio State.  I guarantee that the physical Buckeyes defense will force some game time from the bench, and I don't think they can compete.  OHIO STATE by 12

Championship prediction:  I figure Ohio State will be there.  Who will they play?  If Penn State beats the Irish, I don't see the Nittany Lions winning.  The Buckeyes have their number, and they have gotten into the heads of those players.  Now, if the Irish win, it could be an interesting game.  Still, nobody has been producing better game plans then Ohio State OC Chip Kelly, and I don't think the Irish can come back from an early deficit.  Thus, I think OHIO STATE will pull off a SECOND historic Football Championship run.  Remember, the fourth seeded Ohio State team won the first year that the BCS had a four-team playoff, and they might win the first 12-team CFP playoffs.