NFL 2021 Final Power Rankings and Wild Card predictions

 It was a crazy final week of the season, and I don't think anyone expected to see the Raiders in the playoffs!  We had some weird finishes, especially since very few key players sat out this final week of the season.  How did the teams end up the season?

Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Buffalo Bills (11-6) [1]

2.  Dallas Cowboys (12-5) [3] : Huge destruction of Philly to close the season and end their playoff hopes

3.  Tampa Bay Bucs (13-4) [4] : The defending Super Bowl Champs are still a threat to repeat

4.  New England Patriots (10-7) [2]

5.  Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) [5]

6.  Green Bay Packers (13-4) [6]

7.  Los Angeles Rams (12-5) [7] : Their defense looked pathetic against the 49ers

8.  Tennessee Titans (12-5) [11] : They captured the top seed in the AFC, but Houston didn't make it easy

9.  Arizona Cardinals (11-6) [8]

10. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) [9] : Another massive fail in the final week.  Their inconsistency makes them a poor choice to go all the way

11. Indianapolis Colts (9-8) [10] : Best team not in the playoffs

12. San Francisco 49ers (10-7) [13]

13. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) [12]

14. New Orleans Saints (9-8) [15] : They did great in the final week, in hopes of capturing a playoff spot, but the Rams didn't hold up their end

and where are the other playoff teams?

22. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) [NR] : Yes, they fought hard these last two weeks as a tribute to Big Ben, but this team had some massively poor weeks, too

23. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) [NR] : The picture of inconsistency, this team won close games but failed miserably in others, ending up with the worst point differential (-71) for a 10-win team in NFL history

Divisional rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC West [1] : They led the pack nearly every week, and finish the season as the only division with three playoff teams.

2.  AFC East [2] : They had three teams with winning records and two powerhouse division leaders

3.  AFC West [3] 

4 (tie).  NFC East [4] : Washington could compete, so only the Giants were a sloutch

4 (tie).  NFC South [4] : Atlanta and Carolina were pathetic, and the Saints couldn't consistently finish games

6.  AFC North [4] : The only division without a losing record, they beat up on each other enough to hurt their overall score

7.  NFC North [7]

8.  AFC South [8] : The Colts loss this week was the final nail in the division's coffin

Wildcard weekend picks

I'm picking too many home teams, I know it.  There are frequent visiting team victories in the first week.  I'll note some possibles, but there's only one I feel strongly enough to pick outright.

Saturday games

#6 Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) at #4 Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) : The Raiders can be unpredictable, so a win here is possible, but any team with the record-setting poor points differential should NEVER be favored.  BENGALS, 24-23

#5 New England Patriots (10-7) at #3 Buffalo Bills (11-6) : The Patriots are a tough team, but the Bills seem to have their number this season.  This one will be an offensive explosion.  BILLS, 34-31

Sunday games

#7 Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) at #2 Tampa Bay Bucs (13-4) : Let's admit it, the Eagles don't really stand a chance against Tom Brady and the Bucs, even with the Bucs potentially missing a couple of receivers.  BUCS, 27-16

#6 San Francisco 49ers (10-7) at #4 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) : Oooh, here's an upset I'd love to pick!  If Dallas had rested their starters as I guessed they might, and they were cold, I wouldn't hesitate to pick the 49ers.  However, the Cowboys used their game against the Eagles as extra practice for the playoffs, and boy did they impress!  Garrofolo aggrevated his thumb late in last week's game, too, so that might affect his performance here.  COWBOYS, 34-24

#7 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) at #2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) : I'm sure the Steelers would love to get Big Ben back to the Super Bowl for his final season, but it ain't happening.  The Chiefs seem to have resolved the offensive issues that plagued them in the first half of the season, and they enter the playoffs having won nine of their last ten games.  CHIEFS, 31-20

Monday Night Football

#5 Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at #4 Los Angeles Rams (12-5) : For the first time in history, Monday Night Football hosts a playoff game, and it should be a doozy!  The Cardinals can light up the scoreboard, and the utter collapse of the Rams defense this past week opens the door.  This is a visiting team pick I don't hesitate to make IN THE LEAST!  CARDINALS, 34-17

NCAA Football 2021 Final Results

 We still have the national championship game, but my final Top 25 is complete, based upon the results of the bowl games.  I have also ranked all of the conferences (including independents) by their bowl performance, ties settled by a formula combined strength of opponent and point differential.

Top 25 [Position at end of season]

1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) [3] : They dominated Cincinnati and proved that their victory in the SEC Championship Game was not a fluke.  They seem to have worked out the kinks in their offense; it just took ten weeks!

2.  Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) [4] : Another dominant performance and a rematch against Alabama

3.  Cincinnati Bearcats (13-1) [1] : I don't care how badly Alabama beat them -- they were a remarkable team this year who deserved to be in the playoffs.  Let's see if that starts a trend of accepting Group of Five winners.

4.  Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) [6] : It took until the second half for their team to really get on track, but then it was nothing but the Buckeyes

5.  Baylor Bears (12-2) [7] : The surprise Big XII Champ pulverized Ole Miss to conclude a fabulous bowl season for the conference (see below)

6.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-2) [8] : What an amazing comeback!

7.  Michigan Wolverines (12-2) [2] : The Wolverine offensive woes from 2017-2020 returned for the playoff game

8.  Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) [9] : They had an offensive explosion!

9.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-2) [5] : They ran afoul of the Baylor Bears

10. Michigan State Spartans (11-2) [10]

11. Houston Cougars (12-2) [11]

12. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (13-1) [12]

13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-3) [18] : They bounced back well from their collapse in Championship Week.  Of course, they were playing a team with a losing record.

14. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11-2) [15]

15.  Utah Utes (10-4) [14] : They started well, but they couldn't stop the Buckeyes in the second half

16. Kentucky Wildcats (10-3) [NR] : By beating Iowa, the Wildcats had the best performance by a non-playoff SEC team in the bowls

17. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (9-3) [17]

18. Pittsburgh Panthers (11-3) [13] : The ACC Champ was just spanked by the Spartans defense

19. Wisconsin Badgers (9-4) [24]

20. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-4) [22]

21. Air Force Falcons (10-3) [23]

22. UTSA Roadrunners (12-2) [16]

23. Clemson Tigers (10-3) [26]

24. Utah State Aggies (11-3) [27]

25. San Diego State Aztecs (12-2) [NR]

Honorable Mentions:  Fresno State Bulldogs (10-3), Arkansas Razorbacks (9-4), Army Black Knights (9-4), Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-4), Iowa Hawkeyes (10-4), UAB Blazers (9-4)

Conference Bowl Rankings

Once again, Group of Five conferences led the Power Five, but there were some surprises

1.  Mountain West (5-1) -- This one was a shock.  I don't think anyone expected the Mountain West to achieve the best bowl record.  From Fresno State to Air Force this conference ruled the bowls.  Perhaps the best performance was turned in by San Diego State, who corrected a final week stumble by outdrawing the UTSA Roadrunners.

2.  American Athletic (3-1) -- Only Cincinnati lost, which also helps boost the reputation of this conference.  Three of their top teams are moving to the Big XII in a couple of years, but they're moving in other teams.  I think the quality of opposition will make those newcomers better.

3.  Sun Belt (3-1) -- Not really a surprise.  The Sun Belt usually does well in the bowls

4.  Big XII (5-2) -- The top Power Five conference, the teams produced some strong performances.  A lesson to their opponents next year -- never underestimate the Big XII teams

5.  Big Ten (6-4) -- Really, this record should be 6-3, as we really cannot fault Rutgers for their loss.  The conference started unbeaten, but Rutgers broke that streak, and started a streak of four consecutive losses.  Thankfully Ohio State engineered one of their many 2021 second half adjustments and won the Rose Bowl to keep the conference with a winning bowl record.

6.  Independents (2-2) -- Favored in all of their games, BYU barely lost.  Truly the most shocking result was Notre Dame's loss

7.  SEC (5-7) -- The conference will only focus on Alabama and Georgia, which are two of the few highlights of bowl season for this conference.  Arkansas and Kentucky pulled off marvelous upsets, and Tennessee drove Purdue to overtime, but there is little else to tout about their bowl performance.

8.  Conference USA (3-5) -- This conference often struggles in bowls, and that continued this year.  I do acknowledge Western Kentucky for their upset win over Appalachian State.

9.  MAC (3-5) -- For a while it looked like they might go winless, Miami Ohio dominated North Texas.  Then Western Michigan had a dominating upset win over Nevada.  The most impressive performance, though, had to come from Central Michigan.  Moved to the Sun Bowl to play Washington State after both Miami (Washington State's original opponent) and Boise State (Central Michigan's original opponent in the Arizona Bowl) cancelled due to COVID issues, the Chippewas made the most of the opportunity with a great defensive performance, holding back the powerful Washington State offense enough to win.

10.  ACC (2-4) -- Wake Forest beating up on 5-7 Rutgers is really the only highlight of the bowl season for them

11. Pac-12 (0-5) -- Not much to say here, other than I'm sure it was a disappointing bowl season for the conference

NFL 2021 Week 18 picks

 Lots of playoff positions depend upon team performances, but there are a couple of teams who will have players sitting out.

Saturday games

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos : The Chiefs want to win here, hoping for a Titans loss and gaining that first place bye.  Denver has a bit of an offense problem, which is not something that KC suffers from.  CHIEFS, 27-16

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles : The Cowboys will likely sit many of their stars, since there is no benefit to a victory here.  They will host a first round playoff game, regardless of result.  The Eagles are in the playoffs, too, so they will likely rest some key starters.  I think more starters will play for the Eagles, so watch them win.  EAGLES, 24-17

Sunday early games

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings : Neither team has a playoff future, so this is their last game.  They will play everyone they can.  For the Vikings, Kurt Cousins won't suit up, but the Bears might have Justin Fields.  Regardless, their running game will be back at full strength, and that will wear down the worn-down Vikings line.  BEARS, 24-20

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions : The Packers already have the first week bye, so they will sit some starters.  Even so, the Lions are so weak that the Pack should still secure the win.  PACKERS, 34-17

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars : Even without the playoffs on the line, the Colts would likely win this game.  The Jags just don't have it this season, and coaching chaos has not helped.  COLTS, 24-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens : Both teams are shooting for the playoffs, so this will be a hard-fought "in the dirt" game like the AFC North of old.  Lamar Jackson is still questionable, but by now the Ravens are starting to get used to that.  The Steelers pulled off the win against the Browns last week, but it was a struggle, which didn't make them look strong enough to win this game, but this one will be close enough that they might pull it out.  RAVENS, 23-20

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans : Given the Texans struggles, the Titans don't need the incentive of the Number One seed to win this game.  TITANS, 27-13

Washington at New York Giants : Things look grim in the Big Apple.  Taylor Heineke should be back for Washington, and he has been a pleasant surprise this season.  He wants to finish strong.  He will.  WASHINGTON, 24-10

Sunday late games

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : With Green Bay clinching the top seed, I expect several Bucs to sit out.  Despite that, the Panthers are in freefall, and I don't think they have the confidence to win this game, even against a mostly second-team Bucs squad.  BUCS, 21-17

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins : Hoping for a Jets upset, the Patriots are playing for a division title.  That gives them enough incentive to smear the Dolphins.  Miami loves to play spoiler, though, so watch out for them.  PATRIOTS, 34-23

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons : The Saints still have some playoff hopes, and with Hill coming back under center, they might generate enough yards to seal that needed victory.  SAINTS, 23-16

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills : It's easy for the Bills -- win and they're in.  Their offense seems to have regained their footing, so they should just overwhelm the Jets defense.  BILLS, 31-13

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams : The Rams really want to win the division, although the 49ers won't make it easy.  For the 49ers, a win gives them a playoff spot.  Both of these teams are playing for a prize, so expect this one to be a battle.  The Rams are working a bit shorthanded, but the 49ers are missing Jimmy Garafolo, so their offense is limited.  RAMS, 20-13

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals :  Arizona is fighting for the division title, too.  If San Francisco can upset the Rams, the Cardinals have their shot.  They seem to have started reversing the downhill slide that engulfed them after their first loss of the season, but the Seahawks love to play spoilers, and can be unpredictable.  Their inconsistent offense makes me hesitate to pick an upset, though.  CARDINALS, 23-16

Sunday night

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders : Here's another close game.  The winner plays in the postseason, the loser does not.  That puts a lot on the line.  Certainly the Chargers have the defense to pull this one out, but those sneaky Raiders could design an upset.  CHARGERS, 17-13

NFL 2021 Week 17 results

 Well, the playoff races just got a whole lot clearer!  A little lower in this column I'll cover that specifically.  It was interesting to see so many blowout victories this week, by the Patriots, Titans, Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, and my Bears.

Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Buffalo Bills (10-6) [1] 

2.  New England Patriots (10-6) [5] : HUGE blowout victory for the Patriots!

3.  Dallas Cowboys (11-5) [2] : Tough loss that takes them out of the race for the top seed in the NFC

4.  Tampa Bay Bucs (12-4) [3] : They should have done much better against the lowly Jets

5.  Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) [4] : They couldn't hold back the surging Bengals

6.  Green Bay Packers (13-3) [9] : Now THAT looks like a Number One seed!

7.  Los Angeles Rams (12-4) [6] : Great comeback, but it shouldn't have gotten to that point

8.  Arizona Cardinals (11-5) [8]

9.  Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) [10] : Talk about capturing the division in style!

10. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) [7] : Now fighting for a playoff spot they could have clinched

11. Tennessee Titans (11-5) [12] : Captured the division

12. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) [11]

13. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) [13]

14. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) [18]

Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC West [1] : Far and away the best

2.  AFC East [2]

3.  AFC West [3] : Three big wins this weekend

4 (tie).  NFC East [4] : This division gives us two playoff teams, leading off a 3-way tie!

4 (tie).  AFC North [5] : This division has the tightest collection of records, making it the most competitive from top to bottom

4 (tie).  NFC South [5] 

7.  NFC North [8] : And look who escapes the cellar, and they have leapt quite a bit ahead of #8

8.  AFC South [7] : With the Colts in danger of missing the playoffs, this division has fallen

Divisional and Playoff Races

As I stated at the top of this column, this race has gotten easier.  There are only three playoff spots unclaimed, and one will be gained by the winner of Sunday night's contest between the Chargers and Raiders.  Thus, technically, there are challenges for only two playoff spots.  The other AFC hole can be owned by the Colts; if they win, they're in.  If they lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers reach the playoffs.  If they both lose, that means the Ravens win.  If the Dolphins lose, the Ravens capture the spot.  If the Dolphins WIN and the Colts and Steelers both lose, then BOTH teams playing in the Sunday night game (Chargers and Raiders) clinch playoff spots.  Whew!  Everybody got that?

Fortunately, the NFC spots are much simpler.  If the 49ers win OR the Saints lose, the 49ers are in.  If the 49ers lose AND the Saints win, they clinch.

Most of the division races solidified in Week 17.  Only two races remain contested, one in the AFC and one in the NFC.  The AFC division is the East, where both the Bills and Patriots sit atop the division.  The Bills have the tiebreaker, so if they win OR the Patriots lose, the Bills clinch the division.  In the NFC, it's the South up for grabs.  There, the Rams lead by a game, but the Cardinals hold the tiebreaker.  Thus, the Rams clinch by winning or having the Seahawks lose.  If the Rams lose and the Seahawks win, they capture the crown.

Seeding gets a bit more complicated.  Let's just focus on the top spot in the AFC.  Tennessee captures the top seed if they win.  If they lose and the Chiefs win, the Chiefs are Number One.  If both the Titans and Chiefs lose, then it gets more fun, as it depends upon the AFC East winner.  If the Bills win the division, they CANNOT get the top seed.  Thus, Cincy gets the top spot if Tennessee and KC lose and the Bengals win.  If all three lose, then the Titans have it.  Now, if the Patriots win the AFC East, they CAN capture the top spot.  They would gain it if the Titans and Chiefs both lose.

The Packers have clinched the Number One seed in the NFC, so let's look at the other seeds.  The Rams get #2 if they win.  The next in line is Tampa Bay, who gets #2 if they win and the Rams lose.  The Cowboys capture the #2 spot if they win AND BOTH the Bucs and Rams lose.

NFL 2021 Week 17 picks

 Whew!  Watching the bowl games kept me so busy that I almost forget to write this column!  I don't really have the time to research all of the players on the COVID protocol list, so I have no idea how accurate some of my picks are going to be.

Sunday early games

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills : I do know that the Bills have gotten some of their players back, and haven't seen on the news that other key players have been added to the protocol, so they should have most of their dynamic offense playing.  That bodes ill for the Falcons.  BILLS, 30-17

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots : Try as they might, the Jags just can't seem to win too many games.  The Patriots have a strong squad, even with some injuries, so they should easily overpower the Jags.  PATRIOTS, 31-13

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals : I've seen that the Chiefs have gotten some of their players back from protocol.  That gives them the edge, but that offense can still get careless, and the Bengals defense is good at causing and using turnovers.  Watch this game, it could swing to the Bengals.  CHIEFS, 31-27

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens : Lamar Jackson missed practice on Thursday and Friday, so it doesn't look like he'll be back.  That's not good, especially with the stiff defense of the Rams.  RAMS, 23-16

Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans : The Titans seem to have righted their ship, and knowing that they can clinch a division title might be enough incentive to keep playing at the level they had been earlier in the season.  However, the Dolphins defense might be enough to shake them off their game, so this game should be close.  TITANS, 17-16

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts : It's always tough to know which Raiders team will show up to play.  The Colts have things moving, and it looks like Carson Wentz will be back from COVID protocol.  Reason enough to favor them.  COLTS, 24-16

New York Giants at Chicago Bears : The injury to Justin Fields puts Andy Dalton back under center.  He's okay, but not great.  However, against the sagging the Giants, even "okay" should be enough for them to win.  BEARS, 20-13

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington : The Eagles can clinch a playoff spot, and they want it.  Washington is dealing with too much, both on and off the field, to maintain clear focus.  EAGLES, 24-16

Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Jets : No contest.  BUCS, 27-13

Sunday late games

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys : The Cardinals are in the midst of a terrible late season collapse, and they don't seem to have diagnosed the problems.  Given the strength of the Cowboys, they won't have the ease to figure it out in this game.  COWBOYS, 24-13

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints : The Saints keep shuffling players on and off COVID protocol that I can't keep up.  Not sure who will take the field, but whoever does will likely engineer a win.  The Panthers offense is in complete chaos.  They were excited to get Cam Newton back, but he has been ineffective.  They are starting Sam Darnold, who was so bad that they traded to GET BACK Cam Newton in the first place!  SAINTS, 24-13

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers : This could be a close game, especially if it turns into a defensive battle.  The Chargers have had a problem with consistency on their offense, and a severe case of the "dropsies".  That won't help them win.  BRONCOS, 23-20

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks : Neither of these two teams have stellar offenses, but their defenses aren't sharp, either, so they'll get to do some scoring.  Probably the team that controls the clock better will win this game, and that sounds like Pete Carroll.  SEAHAWKS, 23-20

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers : Jimmy Garrofolo is out for this game, but given the sad state of the Texans offense, the 49ers should still win.  49ERS, 17-13

Sunday night

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers : The Packers have some injuries, but since it is unclear if Kurt Cousins will play, I don't think it'll affect the result.  PACKERS, 24-13

Monday Night Football

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers : It has been announced that this will likely be the last game Big Ben plays in Pittsburgh.  There's incentive for a win.  STEELERS, 23-16