NFL 2012 Divisional playoff round

Whew!  I've enjoyed myself too much in Hawaii; almost forgot to make this post.  I need to redeem myself from a poor wildcard round, though.  I thought all four road teams might win, and picked three of them; only Seattle prevailed.  I will admit that Cincy shot themselves in the foot, making too many mistakes to win, even against a struggling Houston team.  It says something about the Texans that that game produced the smallest margin of victory.

This week, my picks are reversed.  I favor most of the home teams.  The odds-makers favor all of them, but I question that.

Saturday games:
#4 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at #1 Denver Broncos (13-3) : The Ravens dominated the Colts last week, but they were getting lots of emotional support from the home fans, as well as Ray Lewis' announced retirement (which I'm betting he'll reverse if they fail to reach the AFC Championship Game).  They have neither of those benefits this week, and have to face Peyton Manning and a quicker Broncos team.  The Broncos also have a better running game, so they can switch up the plays enough to keep the Ravens off-balance.  BRONCOS, 27-16

#3 Green Bay Packers (12-5) at #2 San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) : This will be a closer game than many people realize, although the odds makers agree it will be close (San Fran is giving 3 points).  The 49ers beat the Packers when they met in the regular season, but the Pack made a game of it.  The Packers can be tough when they find a groove, and they had found that towards the end of the season.  It's going to come down to the strength of the 49ers secondary.  If they can prevent a big play and keep the receivers covered, forcing Rodgers to hold onto the ball too long, they can beat them.  The secondary is good, and can do that for a while, but the question is whether the Packers will find holes late in the game and come back.  I'll pick San Fran, but this game could go either way.  49ERS, 24-23

Sunday games:
#5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3) : The Falcons are favored, and I have to ask, "Why?"  First off, Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game in his career.  Secondly, did the odds makers WATCH last week's game.  The Seahawks defense stymied RGIII and the Redskins offense.  Yes, RGIII started hot, before the Seahawks defense had come together, but after the first two drives, the Redskins offense did little else.  The Seahawks will shut down the Falcons just as easily.  SEAHAWKS, 24-10

The interesting thing about this game is that neither Green Bay nor San Francisco want to face Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, so I'm sure both are rooting are Atlanta.  Why is Seattle such a threat?  The last time Seattle came to Green Bay for a playoff game, Seattle embarrassed the Pack.  And Seattle did the same thing the last time they face the 49ers, a 42-13 pasting in Week 16.

#3 Houston Texans (13-4) at #2 New England Patriots (12-4) : The Patriots are 9.5 point favorites, and I think they'll win by even more than that.  If Cincy hadn't made so many mistakes last week, they would have been the Texans, who played lackluster.  If the Texans can't get it up for the Pats, the red-hot Pats offense will roll early.  That takes Adrian Foster out of the game, as the Texans will have to pass too often, and that allows the Pats to control the game.  PATRIOTS, 34-13

NCAA 2012 Bowl results and Final Top 25

  My, I wasn't hugely successful picking the bowl winners.  There were some interesting surprises.  The Big Ten, favored in NONE of their games and, with the exception of Northwestern, playing teams with better records and higher rankings, played tough.  Purdue was the only disappointment; all others either won or beat their spreads.  The ACC was also a pleasant surprise.  Many of their teams struggled at times during the season, yet they became a behemoth during the bowls.  On the other hand, the MAC, who spent several weeks surprising strong opponents from BCS conferences, fell flat in the bowls.  So did the Big XII, who had the best overall record of all conferences, and the SEC.  While the SEC finished 6-3 and won the BCS National Championship Game, they struggled in many of their games.  Alabama and Ole Miss were the most impressive, and Vandy was next.  Georgia needed a fourth quarter spurt to beat Nebraska after dominating them in the first half.  Florida was embarrassed by Louisville in a game that had the largest anticipated margin of victory for the SEC.

So how did the conferences do?  Here is my annual rankings of the bowl performances for the conferences:
1.  WAC (2-0) : They were short-changed, with only two representatives, but won both of the games.
2.  Conference USA (4-1) : They were competitive throughout the season, and proved that they can no longer be ignored.  The anticipated collapse of the Big East (exemplified by their failed television renewal) has given the Conference USA officials an opening to plead for an automatic BCS bid.
3.  ACC (4-2) : They turned around a mediocre season with a strong post-season performance
4.  SEC (6-3) : They are here based upon their bowl record, not because of a wealth of outstanding performances.  Winning the National Championship, especially in such a dominant fashion, does count for something.
5.  Big East (3-2) : Louisville and Syracuse were big surprises
6.  Pac-12 (4-3) : Better than they've done in recent years, and they won the Rose Bowl (although Stanford did not beat the spread).  Oregon and Arizona State had great games.
7.  Big Ten (2-5) : By record, they should be in ninth place, but they played better than expected in all but one game, and both teams from Michigan lost on last minute drives.
8.  Sun Belt (2-2) : They had more teams in bowls than they ever had, and had only a mediocre result
9.  Big XII (4-5) : For the conference whose teams accumulated the best overall record for all conferences, they had trouble demonstrating that in the bowls.  Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State were embarrassed, Texas and TCU didn't match expectations, and most of the teams produced lackluster performances.
10. MAC (2-5) : Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the bowls.  Given how they played during the season, I expected the MAC to excel.  Instead, they bombed.
11. Mountain West (1-4) : They may have severely damaged their bid for an automatic BCS bid.

Final Top 25 [Last season position]
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) [3] : They defended their title with a dominant performance against Notre Dame.  That Irish defense didn't seem to bother them at all.
2.  Oregon Ducks (12-1) [4] : Maybe the Ducks should have played in the National Championship Game
3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [2] : They didn't play in a bowl, but they are the only unbeaten team
4.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) [1] : Their vaulted defense was ineffective
5.  Georgia Bulldogs (12-2) [5] : They established a large lead and then got lazy, letting Nebraska back into the game.  If not for some Cornhusker mistakes, their game could have ended much differently.
6.  Florida State Seminoles (12-2) [9] : Okay, maybe Northern Illinois shouldn't have been in a BCS bowl
7.  Texas A&M Aggies (11-2) [8] : Johnny Football lit up the Sooner defense
8.  Clemson Tigers (11-2) [13] : They beat LSU in the Tiger Bowl, proving to the SEC that they should not underestimate the ACC
9.  Kansas State Wildcats (11-2) [6] : The Wildcats offense couldn't keep up with Oregon and the defense couldn't stop them
10. Utah State Aggies (11-2) [17] : They engineered the first dominant performance of the bowls
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (11-2) [12] : They held back a surging Michigan offense at the end
12. Stanford Cardinal (12-2) [11] : Wisconsin didn't do anything unusual in the Rose Bowl, but Stanford struggled to stop them
13. LSU Tigers (10-3) [10] : Losers in the Tiger Bowl
14. Florida Gators (11-2) [7] : Their loss to Louisville may have been the most shocking bowl result
15. Boise State Broncos (11-2) [16]
16. San Jose State Spartans (11-2) [19] : Great game, and San Jose gets their first 11-win season!
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-2) [15] : Florida State ruined their best season ever
18. Oklahoma Sooners (10-3) [14] : Latest casualty of Johnny Football
19. UCF Golden Knights (10-4) [NR] : Large gap between this and the higher position, UCF finished a strong season with a strong bowl win
20. Northwestern Wildcats (10-3) [NR] : The Wildcats ruined Mississippi State's Cinderella season
21. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (11-3) [26]
22. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) [22]
23. Michigan Wolverines (8-5) [23] : The only five-game loser in the Top 25, they nearly beat the Gamecocks with an impressive comeback
24. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-3) [21]
25. Texas Longhorns (9-4) [NR]

Honorable Mentions:  Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-3), Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-5), Louisville Cardinals (11-2), Wisconsin Badgers (8-6)