Wow! The curse of "Upset Saturday" hit hard this week. Plenty of Top 25 teams lost to unranked teams, including two of our unbeatens. Those few teams on bye weeks were probably very happy.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Georgia Bulldogs (9-0) [1] : One of the few strong victories among the Top Ten
2. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0) [2] : The masters of close victories did it again!
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [3]
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) [5] : For a while it looked like they might lose, too
5. Oklahoma Sooners (9-0) [6]
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) [8]
7. Michigan State Spartans (8-1) [3]
8. Michigan Wolverines (8-1) [10] : The strongest victory in the Big Ten (at least among the ranked teams -- did you see that Wisconsin performance?)
9. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [9]
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) [11]
11. UTSA Roadrunners (9-0) [14]
12. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2) [16] : Sorry, I can't resist -- I TOLD YOU SO!
13. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (8-1) [13]
14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-1) [7]
15. Houston Cougars (8-1) [17]
16. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-3) [18]
17. NC State Wolfpack (7-2) [21] : Nice recovery this week
18. Baylor Bears (7-2) [15]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2) [19]
20. Iowa State Cyclones (6-3) [30]
21. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (8-1) [23]
22. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3) [29]
23. SMU Mustangs (7-2) [20]
24. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2) [24]
25. Pitt Panthers (7-2) [31]
On the Edge: San Diego State Aztecs (8-1), Utah Utes (6-3), Wisconsin Badgers (6-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3), BYU Cougars (8-2), Air Force Falcons (6-3)
Dropped off: Auburn Tigers [#12], Minnesota Golden Gophers [#22], Kentucky Wildcats [#25]
Big Ten Report
The upset bug struck the conference big! Two games were actual upsets and two others came close. Illinois and Purdue each knocked off their second ranked team this year, as Illinois kicked Minnesota out of the rankings and Purdue ruined the Spartans perfect season. Ohio State also struggled against Nebraska and Iowa had to rely on Northwestern mistakes to hold onto a victory. Penn State's performance was expected, while both Michigan and Wisconsin ran rampant.
Unbeaten and Playoff Contenders
We are down to four unbeaten teams: Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and UTSA. Georgia is clearly the strongest team in the country. That does not guarantee the National Championship, as they could slip some week, but they are most likely, especially since Alabama revealed vulnerabilities this week that Georgia can exploit.
By the way, that projected SEC Championship Game, Georgia against Alabama, is precisely why Cincinnati WILL be in the playoffs. What none of the so-called "experts" at ESPN could possibly realize (they pay these people to be so stupid? God, I'm vastly unpaid!) is that the SEC Championship Game, or the games leading to it, practically guarantee that Cincinnati, despite sitting at #6, will be among the top four teams. They will certainly move up this week, as Michigan State lost and no other teams were impressive enough to leapfrog over Cincinnati, so the Bearcats will be Number 5. And then there is the SEC Championship Game. SOMEONE will lose that game, and likely lose their spot in the playoffs. That rises Cincinnati to the fourth spot (provided they don't lose before then).
Okay, back to my projections. Based on what Alabama and Georgia demonstrated this week, Georgia will win the SEC and get the Number One spot. That drops Alabama out. Ohio State seems primed to win the Big Ten, unless the Spartans take this week's loss as incentive to tighten up and the Spartans spring an upset. Certainly Ohio State will likely beat Michigan.
Oregon doesn't have an easy path. They have to face Utah on the road, and the Utes are a good team. Then, they close the season against their in-state rival, and that's not called the "Civil War" for nothing! Either team can win that battle, regardless of record. Oklahoma doesn't have it any easier, with games against ranked teams remaining: Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. Then they have the Big XII Championship, which might be an immediate rematch against the Cowboys.
Wake Forest is finished, so the likely "dark horse" to jump in if both Oregon and Oklahoma lose? Notre Dame. The Irish have the history, the slate of tough opponents, and some impressive wins. They finish with Virginia, who is not doing as well now as they were doing earlier in the season, Georgia Tech, and Stanford. That Stanford game might be tough, but I think they can win. It doesn't even have to be an impressive win if both Oregon and Oklahoma flounder.
Oklahoma State has an outside chance. They would have to win out, which would entail two consecutive victories against Oklahoma. That doesn't seem likely, but it's November, the season of upsets, so who knows?
Conference and Divisional races
With three weeks left, it's time to check the conference races:
American Athletic Conference : This one is certainly getting attention this season, thanks to Cincinnati. However, they have a challenger in Houston. They don't face each other, so they could both end the season unbeaten in conference play. That pits the two of them in the Conference Championship Game. No other team has a realistic chance, even if they have a mathematical chance. In fact, based upon their upcoming opponents, Houston has clinched their spot. One more victory gives Cincinnati their spot.
ACC Atlantic : The key game is this week, as NC State faces off against Wake Forest. The winner has the division lead. If the Demon Deacons win, they are almost a guarantee. They would simply need to beat Clemson or have Clemson lose another conference game. If NC State wins, they are tied with Wake Forest and hold the tiebreaker. They'd have to win out against Syracuse and North Carolina, and guess who upset Wake Forest this last week? That North Carolina game might get interesting.
ACC Coastal : Pitt leads this division and holds the tiebreaker against Miami. If Pitt beats Virginia in two weeks they have the title. Virginia would have to win out in order to guarantee the division title. Miami and North Carolina have remote chances, but they'd have to win out and get some help.
Big XII : I've already discussed Oklahoma, who leads the conference. Oklahoma State has an easy shot. They have easy games against TCU and Texas Tech before facing Oklahoma. It almost doesn't matter who wins in the seasonal match-up, as they would meet again in the Championship Game. Unless Oklahoma loses before facing Oklahoma State, this won't be resolved until the Championship Game.
Big Ten East : Ohio State leads. They win out, they win. They still face the only two contenders remaining: Michigan and Michigan State. The Buckeyes close out the season against those two. So long as they avoid an upset by "Giant Killer" Purdue, and they have a better offense than Michigan State so they should be able to do so (note that BOTH of Purdue's upsets were against weak offenses -- those of Iowa and Michigan State), they control their own destiny. For either Michigan or Michigan State, they need to win out, which would include a victory over the Buckeyes.
Big Ten West : Oh, man, here's a wideout race! Four teams have a serious chance, and Illinois even has a mathematical chance if they win out. Wisconsin is the hottest team right now, and they hold tiebreaking victories over two of the others: Purdue and Iowa. If they beat Minnesota at the end of the season they lock the title. They play two easy games before that, against Northwestern and Nebraska, so the Badgers have the best shot at the title. Minnesota beat Purdue, but still has to play both Iowa and Wisconsin. Iowa has already lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, so a loss to Minnesota removes any chance they have. Purdue has already played all of the other three, with a 1-2 record, so they need help from other teams.
Conference USA East : Marshall leads, but it's not an easy situation. They still face co-leader Western Kentucky, as well as contender Charlotte and West Division runner-up UAB. The Hilltoppers actually have an easier time, facing Rice and Florida Atlantic before facing off against Marshall to close the season. That game will likely determine the division winner, but Western Kentucky might have the edge coming into that game. Florida Atlantic and Charlotte have outside chances, but they need to win out and, in Charlotte's case, needs Marshall to lose to someone else as well.
Conference USA West : UTSA leads and holds the tiebreaker against UTEP. Basically, all they have to do is beat UAB in two weeks and they have the title. UAB would need to beat UTSA and then win as many games as the Roadrunners to close the season.
MAC East : Kent State leads this division, and they have a fairly easy time before facing Miami Ohio at the end of the season. If both teams enter that game as they are now, with only one victory separating them, then the winner of that game wins the division. Kent State's biggest challenge before that is a game against Central Michigan. Miami Ohio actually has it easier, facing two teams with losing records (Buffalo and Bowling Green).
MAC West : The key game is this week, as division-leading Northern Illinois faces runner-up Ball State. They've already beating Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan, so a victory over Ball State locks it up. Ball State would need to beat Northern Illinois and then win the same number of games as the Huskies.
Mountain West Mountain : Utah State holds the tiebreaker against all other contenders. All the Aggies have to do is win two of their remaining three games to lock it up. The others need the Aggies to lose. A tough sell, since they don't face any team with a winning conference record for the rest of the season.
Mountain West West : This week's game between San Diego State and Nevada could determine the winner. Certainly it will break the tie between those two, and give the winner a tiebreaker advantage. That means the winner of that game would have to lose BOTH of their remaining games to lose the division title. That seems highly unlikely.
Pac-12 North : Oregon can all but lock it up by beating Washington State this weekend. However, if the Ducks lose to both Utah and Oregon State, and the Beavers win out, then Oregon State would win the division.
Pac-12 South : The Utes lead and hold tiebreaking victories over the other contenders. All Utah has to do to clinch the division is beat Arizona this weekend. That sounds easy.
SEC East : GEORGIA has clinched
SEC West : Alabama leads, but they have competition. The Aggies hold a tiebreaker, so they could capture the division if they win out, and Bama loses once more. Auburn even has a chance, if they win out and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Since A&M beat Auburn, the Tigers would need the Aggies to lose one more game to make that scenario work.
Sun Belt East : Appalachian State holds the tiebreaking lead, as they beat Coastal Carolina. However, they have a couple of potentially tough games coming up. Coastal actually has an easier schedule than the Mountaineers, but they would have to win one more game than the Mountaineers in order to capture the title.
Sun Belt West : LOUISIANA has clinched
Upset Report
I've covered the Big Ten upsets, but they weren't the only conference to experience more than one upset. The Pac-12 shares that dubious honor. First, Arizona wins their first conference game by knocking off the Cal Bears in a baseball-score defensive battle. Then, at night, Oregon State falls to Colorado (although the Buffaloes needed two overtime periods to do it).
Neither of the Pac-12 upsets involved ranked, but many upsets did. Wake Forest lost to North Carolina, SMU lost to Memphis, and Baylor fell to TCU. At least those three teams can take consolation that all of their losses were close games. Our final upset of the night was not. Florida, a former resident of the Top 25, was thoroughly smothered by South Carolina, a team who has struggled for most of the season.
