NFL 2020 Week 15 Power Rankings and Week 16 picks

 What is wrong with Pittsburgh?  Three straight losses and a totally anemic offense, including a completely ineffective ground game, is spiraling this team into a hole.  Once the leading candidate for the top seed, they need the Chiefs to lose TWICE to even have a chance at it, and now both the Browns and Ravens are nipping at their heels for the division title.  Fortunately the top four power teams had established a large lead over the rest of the pack, or the Steelers would have dropped further this week.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) [1] : Their defense kept Drew Brees at bay for most of the game, and Patrick Mahomes still showed his ball magic.

2.  Green Bay Packers (11-3) [3] : The leading candidate for the NFC top seed, the Packers continue to win despite some injury concerns.

3.  New Orleans Saints (10-4) [2] : The return of Drew Brees didn't quite go as planned, but things were looking good in the fourth quarter.  A precursor of things to come?

4.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) [4] : A team definitely self-destructing

5.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [6] : With the fall of the Steelers, the Ravens see a possible division title in their future.

6.  Indianapolis Colts (10-4) [5] : It wasn't easy against the Texans, but the Colts continue to win

7.  Miami Dolphins (9-5) [8] : They can't win the division, but a playoff spot seems within their grasp.  Tua is doing quite well, and firing up this team.

8.  Buffalo Bills (11-3) [9] : Now in line for the second seed in the conference, and capturing their first division title in the 2000's, this team does nothing but win.

9.  Tennessee Titans (10-4) [12] : A truly impressive performance this week, the Titans contain to stay atop the division despite pressure from the Colts.

10. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) [10] : They escaped against Washington, but consistency is still a problem for them.

11. Los Angeles Rams (9-5) [7] : Geez, they lost to the Jets!  'Nuff said.

12. Tampa Bay Bucs (9-5) [11] : Their defense gave up too many big players to Matt Ryan and the Falcons

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-6) [13] : They held back the Eagles, but their defense showed some holes

14. Cleveland Browns (10-4) [14] : Nice dominant performance over the Giants, and another Steelers loss puts the AFC North title in reach.

15. Chicago Bears (7-7) [17] : Wonderful offensive performance lands the Bears within range of the seventh playoff spot.

16. Washington (6-8) [15] : They still lead the NFC East as everyone but the division-trailing Cowboys lost

Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  AFC North [2] : Despite the Steelers' collapse, the division impresses with Cleveland, Baltimore, and now Cincy

2.  NFC West [1] : Just a half-point behind is the NFC West, which was hurt by the Rams' loss to the previously winless Jets

3.  NFC South [3] : The Saints may have lost, but once the rust came off Drew Brees he looked as sharp as before.  Both the Bucs and Falcons impressed this week.

4 (tie).  NFC North [4] : Nice performances from everyone except the Lions

4 (tie).  AFC East [5] : The Jets won, which means the worst performance of the week was from... New England?

6.  AFC South [6] : The Titans and Colts continue to battle for the lead, while the other two teams are not too competitive.

7.  AFC West [7] : The Raiders are out of playoff contention, so the Chiefs are carrying the entire division.

8.  NFC East [8] : Not a great week, but all teams remain in contention for the division title

Divisional and playoff races

AFC: The Chiefs remain on top, and clinch the top seed with a win.  Buffalo clinched the AFC East, and the Patriots will miss the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.  The playoff teams are nearly set.  Wins by the Browns, Titans, and Colts clinch the playoffs for them.  The Ravens find themselves as the first team out, so they need to win one more game than the Dolphins.  

The Steelers clinch the AFC North with one more win.  Both the Ravens and Browns would need to win out, and the Steelers lose their remaining games, to stand a chance.  The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Browns, so they hope the Browns lose one game in the next two weeks.

NFC:  The Saints and Seahawks clinched playoff berths this week.  No new division titles are set. The Bucs, Rams, and Cardinals clinch the playoffs with one more win.  The Bears need to win out AND hope the Cardinals lose a game, or the Bucs lose two games.  The Saints clinch their division with a win.  Washington clinches with a win AND a Giants loss.  The Giants clinch if they win out and Washington loses one game.  The Seahawks clinch with a win AND Rams loss.  The Rams would need to win out and have Seattle lose a game.  The Cardinals need a minor miracle to win the division.

Week 16 picks

What's this?  No Thursday night game?  Nope.  And with the Hawaii Bowl cancelled, go enjoy a football-free Christmas Eve with your family.

Friday

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints : Drew Brees shook off the rust in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs and nearly engineered a brilliant comeback.  He won't need to come back in this game, as the Saints should lead nearly the whole game.  SAINTS, 28-17

Saturday

Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions : The Lions would like to play spoilers, but Tom Brady has a history of laser-focus when playing for a playoff berth.  I really doubt the Bucs will lose this game, and the Bucs will advance to the playoffs.  BUCS, 30-23

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals : The Cards need this win to keep pace in the playoff race, and I think they'll get it.  49ers QB Nick Mullens has not been playing well, and now C.J. Breatherd will take his place under center.  That won't help.  CARDINALS, 27-17

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders : On paper, the Dolphins should win this game easily.  However, rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa is actually a weakness in this game.  Raiders coach Jon Gruden will create a scheme to confuse the young player, who hasn't yet accumulated enough experience to recognize subtle defensive shifts.  The Dolphins might fall behind, and if Coach Flores keeps him in there, they may not come back.  His best bet?  Bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Raiders could win this game, but with the playoffs on the line, let's see if they do bring in Fitzpatrick to help win.  DOLPHINS, 27-23 (if Fitz plays), RAIDERS, 23-20 (if not)

Sunday early games

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs : The Chiefs defense will keep Matt Ryan and company in check, and the Falcons can't stop the Mahomes magic.  CHIEFS, 31-17

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars : Beating the Vikings last week was a tremendous boon for the Bears.  Not only did they rejuvenate the defense, but they get an easy game this week to keep them in playoff contention for one more week.  BEARS, 27-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans : Ryan Findlay took over field generalship of the Bengals and engineered an upset of the Steelers, but he was helped by the still-sputtering Steelers offense.  Overcoming the Texans defense will be another matter entirely.  TEXANS, 27-24

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets : Can the Jets make it two in a row?  Not against the Browns defense.  BROWNS, 23-13

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers still haven't figured out the problems on offense, especially their anemic running game (traditionally a Steelers strong point).  That will be devastating against the Colts, who aren't having any problems on offense.  COLTS, 27-17

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens : Another one-sided game, as the struggling Giants offense has to face the stingy Ravens defense.  RAVENS, 27-13

Sunday late games

Carolina Panthers at Washington [Will someone come up with a contest to name this team?] : Washington didn't look too bad against Seattle last week.  Even Dwayne Haskins, who hasn't been able to match his Ohio State magic as a pro, had a good game.  It looks like Haskins will start again, but the quarterback with the bigger issue is Teddy Bridgewater.  He does not do well when he is pressured, and quarterback pressure is the specialty of Chase Young.  WASHINGTON, 23-16

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers : The weakened Chargers defense will allow the Broncos more than usual, but Denver is still more offensively-challenged than we have seen in previous seasons, and Justin Herbert has the Chargers offense rolling.  CHARGERS, 30-23

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks : Will it help or hurt Seattle that the Rams lost to the Jets last week?  Certainly, the Rams will want to play a great game to reverse that result, but that game also exposed some vulnerabilities that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks will be quick to exploit.  This game will be close, and the Rams could pull it out, but I think their weaknesses will come under attack.  SEAHAWKS, 24-20

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys : Jalen Hurts has given new life to the Eagles since he became the starter, showing the type of moves that they hoped to see more often from Carson Wentz.  I think Hurts will find ways around the Cowboys defense and move into second place in the division, after a Giants loss to Baltimore.  EAGLES, 27-17

Sunday night

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers : The Packers certainly have the offense to excel over the Titans, but the Titans defense can be tough hitters, and the Packers squad is a bit thin.  If too many players are taken to the locker room, the Titans might come back to win this one.  PACKERS, 33-30

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots : The Bills have clinched the division, but they will not rest this week.  With no bye for the number two seed, you might wonder why not.  They are playing the Patriots, the team who has dominated them (and the rest of the division) for over 11 years.  This is a revenge game, baby!  BILLS, 28-20

Big Ten 2020 Final Power Rankings and abridged Bowl picks

 Three games were cancelled last week due to COVID concerns, but at least the Conference Championship happened.  Ohio State looked a bit flat, but they sparked in the second half (just as I said they would!) to win a defensively-dominant game.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) [1] 

2.  Indiana Hoosiers (6-1) [2] : They did not play the last two weeks, but they are still in this position due to the tremendous defensive performances in the last two games they played

3.  Northwestern Wildcats (6-2) [4] : They did a great job in slowing down the tremendous Buckeyes offense.  They will sizzle in their bowl game!

4.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) [3] : Their last game was cancelled, but watch them in the bowls.

5.  Penn State Nittany Lions (4-5) [7] : Utter dominant performance against Illinois!  They wiped out the memory of their 0-5 start.  They could probably win a bowl game, but the conference is sticking to their rules about teams with losing records being ineligible to play in postseason bowls.

6.  Wisconsin Badgers (3-3) [8] : They won a close one against Minnesota to even their record and get to a bowl game

7.  Maryland Terrapins (2-3) [6]

8.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-4) [5]

9.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-5) [11] : Nice win over Rutgers 

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-6) [10]

11. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6) [9] : They not only lost the game to Penn State, but they lost their coach, too.

12. Michigan State Spartans (2-5) [12]

13. Michigan Wolverines (2-4) [13]

14. Purdue Boilermakers (2-4) [14]

Bowl picks

Well, I'm doing this a little bit differently this year.  Sometimes we have a couple of teams with losing records playing the bowls, as some conferences need to fill spots in the over-growing number of bowl games.  This year, with so many bowls cancelling (some, like Santa Clara, because they are not allowed to play and gather), there were enough talented and qualified teams to fill them.  However, we have WAAAAY too many teams who should not be playing in bowl games.  Why?  Because the SEC bribed bowl officials to ensure that their usual number of teams play in bowl games.  As a result, we have FIVE SEC teams who are playing with losing records, three of them who failed to win more than three games!  Also as a result, many teams from other conferences with winning records failed to play in a bowl.  At least Army got their shot, filling in the slot in the Liberty Bowl when Tennessee had to cancel.

And that's the other thing -- I'm not sure how many of these bowls will actually play, and how many matchups will change.  As such, I am limiting my picks to bowls that seem fairly certain to happen, and only have deserving teams playing.  For the most part, that means BOTH teams are deserving, but I do pick one bowl with an undeserving SEC team, because it also features a Big Ten team, and I am picking all five bowls featuring Big Ten teams.

Dec 22

Potato Bowl -- Tulane Green Wave (6-5) v Nevada Wolfpack (6-2) :  Congratulations, Tulane, but you are just overmatched in this game.  The Green Wave won all of their non-conference games, but that's not a suitable measuring stick, as Nevada didn't play any non-conference games.  The games they played, though, were defensive battles.  They will pressure and hassle Tulane all game.  NEVADA

Boca Raton Bowl -- UCF Golden Knights (6-3) v BYU Cougars (10-1) : Easy pick.  While UCF typically does well in bowl games, BYU has been a powerhouse all season long.  BYU

Dec 23

Montgomery Bowl -- Memphis Tigers (7-3) v Florida Atlantic Owls (5-3) : The Owls have a good defense, but they will have their hands full against the powerhouse offensive blitz of the Tigers.  The Owls may keep it close early, but they will just get worn down by the Tigers.  MEMPHIS

Dec 25

Camellia Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd (7-2) v Buffalo Bulls (5-1) : Ooh, this should be our first close game.  Both teams have strong defenses and effective offenses.  The difference here just may come down game strategy, and I think Marshall has the edge on that.  MARSHALL

Dec 26

Cure Bowl -- Liberty Flames (9-1) v Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (11-0) :  Aside from the National Championship semi-finals, this might be the most anticipated bowl game.  Two teams that normally struggle had a terrific 2020, and now they face off in what should amount to an epic battle.  Both of these teams have dynamic offenses, so I expect lots of points to scored in this one.  The difference might actually come down to special teams, a squad that the Chanticleers have the edge.  COASTAL CAROLINA

First Responder Bowl -- Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (9-1) v UTSA Roadrunners (7-4) : The Roadrunners are a tricky team, but nobody gets down in the dirt and scraps better than the Ragin Cajuns.  Their tenacity and sheer nose for the bowl will keep the pressure on the Roadrunners.  LOUISIANA

Dec 29

Cheez-It Bowl -- Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3) v Miami Hurricanes (8-2) : Turnovers have not been the star for Miami this year, because they haven't needed them.  The offense finally looks like what they wanted three years ago.  While the defense has taken a step backwards, they will be able to outscore the Cowboys.  MIAMI

Alamo Bowl -- Texas Longhorns (6-3) v Colorado Buffaloes (4-1) : It is questionnable whether the Buffaloes will be able to play this game, so a replacement team will be needed.  Whoever it will be, Texas will beat them.  For Texas, this game is a matter of state pride, and they won't let any "foreign" school come into San Antonio and come out as winners.  TEXAS

Dec 30

Mayo Bowl -- Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-4) v Wisconsin Badgers (3-3) : While these teams may LOOK evenly matched, the Badgers defense will ground the Demon Deacons.  WISCONSIN

Music City Bowl -- Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) v Missouri Tigers (5-5) : The Tigers won't be able to keep up with the Iowa offense, and the Hawkeyes defense will drag them down.  IOWA

Cotton Bowl -- Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) v Florida Gators (8-3) : Oh, man, Florida looked so good against Alabama!  I'd love to pick them, especially since the Big 12 had played so miserably in bowl games in recent years, but, like the Alamo Bowl for Texas, the Cotton Bowl Classic is the home of the Big 12 Champ, and they don't like anybody coming in and leaving with a victory.  Florida could pull this one out, though, so don't miss a second of this game!  OKLAHOMA

Dec 31

Arizona Bowl -- Ball State Cardinals (6-1) v San Jose State Spartans (7-0) : This has been an amazing year for the Spartans, so it would be completely unjust for them to lose their bowl game!  Ball State may make it hard, but the Cardinals don't have the best record in bowl games, and I'm not sure they will be able to close this one if it is too close in the fourth quarter.  SAN JOSE STATE

Liberty Bowl -- West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) v Army Black Knights (9-2) : Army almost missed the chance to play in a bowl game, so you know they'll be hungry for this one.  Their pounding ground game will wear out the Mountaineers defense.  ARMY

Jan 1

Peach Bowl -- Cincinnati Bearcats (9-0) v Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) : I'd love to see the Bearcats complete this unbeaten season, but Georgia has such an excellent bowl record, because they always seem to save their best plays for the postseason.  GEORGIA

Citrus Bowl -- Auburn Tigers (6-4) v Northwestern Wildcats (6-2) : With the strength of the Wildcats defense, I'm not sure Auburn will score more than 10 points.  Northwestern will.  NORTHWESTERN

Rose Bowl -- Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) v Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) : The Irish have been great this season, and I'd love to see someone knock Alabaman off their perch, but the Irish don't have a great history with the playoffs.  ALABAMA

Sugar Bowl -- Clemson Tigers (10-1) v Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) :  Ohio State has the talent to beat Clemson, but they have to play better than they did in the Big Ten Championship Game.  Their best bet would be to rattle Trevor Lawrence.  He thinks he can do practically anything with the ball.  If the Buckeyes can pick him off early, and get a second interception in the second half, they might get him angry enough and frustrated enough that he will get reckless with the ball.  Otherwise, I'm afraid the Buckeyes will come up short.  CLEMSON

Jan 2

Outback Bowl -- Ole Miss Rebels (4-5) v Indiana Hoosiers (6-1) : Seriously?  No contest.  INDIANA

Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon Ducks (4-2) v Iowa State Cyclones (8-3) : A picture of two teams with divergent paths this season.  Oregon was a preseason favorite to win the Pac-12 who sort of floundered.  Iowa State was expected to languish in the bottom half of the Big XII yet they nearly won the conference.  While Oregon might fight to regain their glory, no team has been fiestier this season than Iowa State.  IOWA STATE

Orange Bowl -- Texas A&M Aggies (8-1) v North Carolina Tar Heels (8-3) : The Aggies are angry that they were left out of the playoffs, but I don't think they could have beaten ANY of those four teams.  This way, they finish on a win.  TEXAS A&M

Big Ten 2020 Week 8 Power Rankings and Week 9 picks

 Well, the Big Ten Conference has once again made a special exception for Ohio State, this time allowing them to play in the Conference Championship Game without having played six games.  Great example the conference is showing to these influential college students - you don't have to worry about following the rules because someone will always let you have your way anyway.  No wonder so many of my students believe they should get an A even if they don't do most of the coursework.

Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) [1]

2.  Indiana Hoosiers (6-1) [2]

3.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) [3]

4.  Northwestern Wildcats (6-1) [4]

5.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-3) [7]

6.  Maryland Terrapins (2-3) [6]

7.  Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5) [9] : tremendous end to the season after starting 0-5

8.  Wisconsin Badgers (2-3) [5]

9.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-5) [8]

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-5) [14]

11. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-5) [10]

12. Michigan State Spartans (2-5) [11]

13. Michigan Wolverines (2-4) [12]

14. Purdue Boilermakers (2-4) [13]

Week 9 picks

Friday games

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Rutgers was very impressive against Maryland last week.  Except for their game against Penn State (and the Nittany Lions were winless at the time), Nebraska has really struggled on the field this season.  Although Nebraska might have the better raw talent, they can't seem to get it together.  RUTGERS by six

Saturday games

Big Ten Championship: Northwestern Wildcats v Ohio State Buckeyes : The Wildcats have a strong defense, but they won't be able to last against the powerful Buckeyes offense.  It might be a close first half, but the second half will belong to the Buckeyes.  OHIO STATE by 20

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers : The Badgers offense has evaporated.  They haven't scored more than seven points in over a month.  While they will probably break into double digits in this game, the Gophers really have the advantage here.  MINNESOTA by 13

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions : Penn State has won three in a row, so they have the momentum coming into this game.  However, the Illini have found their offense, so this game will be really close.  I'd love to pick the upset, but I think I'll let it truly be one if it happens.  PENN STATE by three

Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins : Michigan State may have handed Northwestern their only loss of the season, but they haven't done much of any else in their games (other than beat in-state rival Michigan, which no longer looks so tough).  Maryland was surprised by Rutgers last week after not playing for two weeks, but they were getting the rust kicked off.  They should be more prepared for the Spartans.  MARYLAND by 13

NFL 2020 Week 14 Power Rankings and Week 15 picks

 The Steelers fell from the top seed as they lost their second game in a row.  Washington has asserted themselves as a part of the upper power teams, something I never thought I'd say about an NFC East team this season.  With Alex Smith injured, though, can they maintain that?  Speaking of injuries, Drew Brees returns, just in time for a fabulous offensive showdown with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

We are at the point of the season when I examine the division title races and playoff hopefuls.  That analysis will appear after the Power Rankings.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) [1] : The Chiefs hold the top spot, but they've looked fragile the past couple of weeks.  We have a battle of top Power teams this week, so it should be interesting to see who remains on top.

2.  New Orleans Saints (10-3) [3] : Taysom Hill couldn't bring them all the way back from an early 17-0 deficit, but Drew Brees returns this week to add power to the Saints.

3.  Green Bay Packers (10-3) [4] : Definitely the strongest showing among Top Five Power teams this week, and they nearly let Detroit tie the game.   

4.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) [3] : They've lost two in a row, and they can't really blame injuries.  They need to get organized quickly or their shot at the top seed will evaporate.

5.  Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [7] : The Colts offense just rolled against the Raiders for one of their most impressive performances of the season.

6.  Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [6] : It almost got away from them, but a last second field goal pushed the Ravens past the Browns to remain in the playoff hunt.

7.  Los Angeles Rams (9-4) [8] : The Rams wiped out the Patriots in one of their most impressive performances of the year.  It seems like the teams in this section of the Power Rankings are peaking while the top teams are slipping.  

8.  Miami Dolphins (8-5) [5] : The Dolphins defense wasn't quite up to the task of holding back the Chiefs.

9. Buffalo Bills (10-3) [10] : They handed the Steelers their second straight loss and puts the Bills in line to contend for the top seed in the conference.

10. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) [12] : Well, if you want to jump two places in the Power Rankings, it helps to play the Jets!

11. Tampa Bay Bucs (8-5) [9] : Nice win over the Vikings, but it took them nearly a whole quarter to get started.

12. Tennessee Titans (9-4) [11] : Strong offensive performance from the Titans, something that has been lacking recently.

13. Arizona Cardinals (7-6) [13] : Nice defensive performance, but then again, they did face the Giants, so it wasn't much of a challenge.

14. Cleveland Browns (9-4) [14] : They hung in against the Ravens, matching them score for score.  Nice job.

15. Washington (6-7) [16] : Washington is showing that there is some power in the NFC East this season after all.

16. New England Patriots (6-7) [15] : A massive fail against the Rams leaves some lingering questions about this team.

Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC West [2] : Strong wins by Seattle, Arizona, and the Rams return this division to the top

2.  AFC North [1] : As Pittsburgh slides, so does the division standing

3.  NFC South [3] : The Saints showed power in nearly coming back from a 17-0 deficit, and the Bucs stepped it up this week

4.  NFC North [5] : Strong victories by Green Bay and Chicago, and an excellent performance by Detroit, boosted this division

5.  AFC East [4] : As from Buffalo, not a great week for the division

6.  AFC South [6] : Two good victories, two bad losses

7.  AFC West [7] : The Chiefs almost lost, and nobody else had a good week

8.  NFC East [8] : Believe it or not, they are moving up.  They just have a massive gap to overcome.

Divisional and Playoff races

Kansas City has clinched both the playoffs and the AFC West title.  Everyone else is still chasing their dreams.  Pittsburgh clinches the playoffs with a win or a Dolphins loss.  A Steelers win or Browns loss awards Pittsburgh the division title.  Buffalo needs two wins or both a Dolphins loss and Ravens loss.  Two wins or two losses by Miami gives them the division title as well.  Two wins by the Dolphins, Colts, and Titans propel them into the playoffs.  The combinations are more varied for other teams, so let's examine things again next week as contenders fall and the combinations become fewer.

In the NFC, the Packers clinched the NFC North and the Saints clinched a playoff spot.  The Saints clinch their division with a win or a Bucs loss.  The Bucs, Seahawks, and Rams clinch the playoffs with a single win.  NFC East and NFC West division races are tight, and other playoff chances are very numerous.

 Week 15 picks

Thursday night

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders : Must win game for the Raiders, who would likely find themselves out of playoff contention if they lose.  They have the talent to win this game, but their on-field play can be very inconsistent.  They also MUST reduce the number of stupid penalties they commit on offense.  I'll favor them, but they'll likely keep this game too close for their fans' comfort.  RAIDERS, 27-23

Saturday games

While the NCAA still play on Saturday, the NFL moves into Saturday for an afternoon and evening game.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos : The Bills are chasing the AFC East title, an achievement they can accomplish with a win here.  While Josh Allen still shows some rough edges, his level of play has increased dramatically this season, while the Broncos seem mired in mediocracy this season.  BILLS, 28-20

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers : The Packers have already clinched their division, but they are chasing the top seed of the conference, since only the top seed gets a bye this year.  That makes this game important, so they won't rest anybody.  That's good, because if the defense allows as many big plays as they did last week against Detroit, Carolina will keep this game uncomfortably close.  PACKERS, 27-23

Sunday early games

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings : The Bears found their offense last week, and are hoping it extends into this week.  They don't have a great divisional record this season, so on paper the Vikings have the edge, but the Vikings played lackluster last week, so the Bears come into this game with the momentum.  At this point of the season, momentum plays a big part.  BEARS, 23-20

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans : The Titans defense will give the Lions a much tougher time this week than they faced last week.  TITANS, 30-20

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts : The Texans want to bounce back from last week's embarrassing loss, and I think both the offense and defense will stiffen.  However, even a stiffer defense will have a hard time slowing the Colts.  COLTS, 27-20

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens : Not much of a surprise here.  RAVENS, 30-16

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins : A loss here will remove all chances of a playoff berth for New England.  They will fight hard, and games between these two are frequently close and exciting, but the Dolphins are even more eager to return to the playoffs, and Tua's development seems to give them the boost they need.  Rookie quarterbacks do not traditionally fare well against Bill Belichick-coached teams, but the Dolphins can always bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick for relief if needed.  Besides, there is always the strong Dolphins defense to help them.  DOLPHINS, 24-17

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys : The NFC West is still trying to pull off the unheard-of feat of sending the entire division to the playoffs.  The 49ers know they need to win out, and hope other teams lose, in order to achieve that.  Fortunately, they ought to be able to knock off the struggling Cowboys.  49ERS, 27-23

Seattle Seahawks at Washington (Nameless) wonders : Washington has shown up strongly in recent weeks as Alex Smith returned to the lineup.  However, he may be hurt for this game, which makes a Seattle pick pretty easy.  Even if he plays, I don't think he'll last the entire game against the physical Seattle defense.  SEAHAWKS, 27-20

Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons have no chance at the playoffs, but playing spoiler, especially for a division rival, is a mighty temptation.  Atlanta is actually a team more talented than their record, marking them as underachievers.  The Bucs are supremely talented as well, and yet have lost games they shouldn't have lost this season.  Who will propel themselves in this situation?  This is the time of the year when Tom Brady really steps up, and I expect him to do it again.  BUCS, 27-20

Sunday late games

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints : It looks like Drew Brees will return to the Saints lineup, and just in time to host the Chiefs.  The Chiefs nearly lost last week as the tough Dolphins defense made things hard for them.  The Saints defense isn't as tough, but they may be good enough to slow Patrick Mahomes and company, and that opens the door for a healthy Drew Brees to work his magic.  I'm picking the upset here, folks!  SAINTS, 34-31

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams : Another week where the Rams face a weak opponent, and another chance for an NFC West team to jump on the Power Rankings due to a massive defeat of the Jets.  RAMS, 28-10

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals : It appears the Eagles will bench Carson Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts.  Against many teams that might be a good idea, but that play right into the Cardinals' hands.  After all, their defense knows how to handle dynamic young quarterbacks, as they line up against one every week in practice.  The Cards will bring Hurts back to Earth, and gain a win in the process.  CARDINALS, 27-20

Sunday night

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants : The Browns nearly beat the Ravens last week.  Compared to that, the Giants are a non-issue.  BROWNS, 27-17

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals : The Steelers have lost two in a row.  They want a strong win to reverse that trend, and to clinch a playoff spot.  Fortunately, with the way the Bengals have been playing, they should get all of those things.  STEELERS, 27-16

NFL 2020 Week 13 Power Rankings and Week 14 picks

 Well, how prophetic was my decision to reduce Pittsburgh in the Power Rankings?  After struggling to beat a ragtag Baltimore Ravens team the offense again struggled, this time against an NFL East team, and suffered their first loss!  The Steelers are DEFINITELY no longer the best team in the league, and they'd better figure out to reverse this slide or they won't make the AFC Championship Game.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) [1] : Truthfully, all three of the top power teams struggled this week, but at least the Chiefs pulled off a victory, and this time Denver had a quarterback under center.

2.  New Orleans Saints (10-2) [2] : The Saints floundered a bit, too, but they, like KC, faced a divisional rival, so it is a bit more understandable.  

3.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) [3] : They now make it harder for them to be the top seed, especially with the way the Chiefs play.  Even the defense, the strong suit of the Steelers, allowed a late-game field goal by Washington.  Something is off with this team, and this is a lousy time of the season for it to appear.

4.  Green Bay Packers (9-3) [4] : Now this is a team who looked good this week.  They are bridging the gap between them and the top three.

5.  Miami Dolphins (8-4) [6] : The AFC team with the best performances in recent weeks, momentum is on their side.  They play KC this week, and that should be quite interesting!

6.  Baltimore Ravens (7-5) [5] : The return of Lamar Jackson and other players allowed the Ravens to rebound on Tuesday night.

7.  Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [7] : Nice "bounce back" game for the Colts, although they did allow the Texans to get more yardage than average.

8.  Los Angeles Rams (8-4) [11] : Big win against Arizona, and the only NFC West team to win this week

9.  Tampa Bay Bucs (7-5) [8]

10.  Buffalo Bills (9-3) [13] : They had a nice win over the 49ers, but were helped by losses by the teams around them on the Power Rankings.

11. Tennessee Titans (8-4) [9] : They gained the lead in the division and promptly get spanked by the Browns

12. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) [10] : The NFC East beat two Power teams this week!  They are going to feed on that for weeks!

13. Arizona Cardinals (6-6) [12] 

14. Cleveland Browns (9-3) [14] : Beating the Titans might have been one of their best victories of the season

15.  New England Patriots (6-6) [20] : Look at who returns to the Power Rankings!  After blasting any team 45-0, even the Chargers, will get you Power-ful attention!

16. Washington (5-7) [18] : And for the first time all season, an NFC East team reaches the Power Rankings!  Congratulations on your defeat of Pittsburgh!

Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  AFC North [2] : Despite Pittsburgh's loss, the division leaped over the NFC West (who had an even worse week!) to take the lead for the first time all season.

2.  NFC West [1] : Not a great showing this week, but all four teams are still a fearsome force each week

3.  NFC South [3] : The Saints are the best team in the conference and the Bucs are a threat, albeit an inconsistent one

4.  AFC East [4] : Miami and Buffalo still excel, and the Patriots really poured it on this week.  Even the Jets nearly gained their first win

5.  NFC North [4] : Detroit's win puts everyone within range of the division title, but they face the Packers this week

6.  AFC South [4] : Houston keeps trying, but it's basically a two-team division

7.  AFC West [7] : The Raiders can make things exciting, but this is basically the Chiefs division.  They will capture the title with one more win.

8.  NFC East [8] : Even their spectacular week this week couldn't get them out of the cellar

Week 14 picks

Thursday night

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams : After their game against the Chargers, I wouldn't count out the Patriots, but I think the Rams offense will be a bit too much.  I hope the Pats enjoy their week in LA, because I don't think they'll be leaving it a winner.  RAMS, 30-26

Sunday early games

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants : The Giants would like to make it five in a row, but their defense hasn't faced an offense as unpredictable as the Cardinals.  I think they'll be confused and allow the Cards take a large early lead, one the Giants won't quite be able to bridge.  CARDINALS, 30-23

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals : Ezekial Elliot returned this week, and gave the 'Boys a great spark.  While they could not beat the Ravens, the Bengals have a much weaker defense.  COWBOYS, 24-20

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers : The Broncos defense held back the Chiefs last week, but it cost them a couple of players.  That should give the Panthers a chance to sneak in a victory.  PANTHERS, 30-26

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears : Two teams with strong defenses and struggling offenses face each other.  If QB Mitch Trubisky can prevent turning the ball over late in the game, as he did against Detroit, they could win this one.  I'm a bit worried, though.  BEARS, 27-20

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins : It might be an advantage that the Chiefs offense struggled against the Broncos.  They will take a serious look at the offense and come up with a new game plan.  That can only benefit them as they face the 2nd stingiest defense in the league this week.  Miami could pull off the upset, but I'll give a nod to the Chiefs.  CHIEFS, 26-24

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs have been hard to predict this season, as they have great talent that doesn't always show it on the field.  They'll be helped by their defense, as Kurt Cousins will take a couple of risky throws that turn into interceptions, sparking the Bucs.  BUCS, 34-27

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars : The one-win Jags have been a tough opponent the past couple of weeks, but the Titans come off a tough loss.  They want to bounce back, and the Jags make an excellent foil.  TITANS, 31-23

Sunday late games

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers : The Chargers collapse last week has not yet been fully diagnosed, so their struggles will continue.  The Falcons are better than their record reflects, a fact the Chargers will discover.  FALCONS, 31-26

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions : The Lions beat the Bears thanks to a late fumble by Mitch Trubisky.  The Lions won't get that help in this game.  PACKERS, 34-23

Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders : The Raiders are a tough team to figure out, which might make things hard for the Colts.  However, they also have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot, and the Colts are one of the fewest penalized teams in the league.  COLTS, 31-27

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles : You have to pity the Eagles defense.  They just finish dusting themselves off from facing a rampaging Packers offense, and they have to slow a strong Saints offense.  Good luck!  SAINTS, 34-23

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks : The Seahawks will be livid after their loss to the Giants last week, and you can beat they'll want to take it out on a New York team.  Enter the Jets, the worst offense in the league.  SEAHAWKS, 24-10

Washington [space intentionally left blank] at San Francisco 49ers : Washington has come alive, now that Alex Smith seems to have found his groove again.  This could be a very interesting game.  Mullens doesn't quite have the right rhythm, so I have to favor the NFC East team (wait, did I just say that?) WASHINGTON, 24-23

Sunday night

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills : If the Steelers don't right their ship, they may find themselves at the tail end of a two-game losing streak.  Somehow I think they'll realize that they need to run the ball a bit more, and present a more balanced attack to the Bills.  It will still be a close game that could go either way.  STEELERS, 24-23

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns : The Ravens have owned the Browns in these matchups, but the Browns are looking sharp this season!  The Ravens have gained back some key players, though, and I think the incentive to beat the Browns will be enough to propel them in this game.  RAVENS, 30-23

NFL 2020 Week 12 Power Rankings and Week 13 picks

 My, what a strange week did COVID wraught!  It stretched seven days from Thanksgiving Day to Wednesday evening, and saw two teams dig deep into their rosters to be able to field a team.  The QB-less Broncos looked like you'd expect, but the ragtag patchwork of second stringers and practice squad members marshalled by the Baltimore Ravens nearly upset the highly-vulnerable unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers.  That performance was atrocious by Pittsburgh and brilliant by Baltimore, so (overriding my own computer-calculated app) I am dropping the Steelers from the top of the Power Rankings (really, a top-ranked team should have performed better against such a hodgepodge team -- just look at what New Orleans did!) and boosted the Ravens.

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) [2] : The Chiefs had their hands full against the Bucs, but that team can be dangerous. Offensively, there still isn't a team better.

2.  New Orleans Saints (9-2) [3] : Although the Saints certainly could give KC a run for their money.  Shutting down the depleted Broncos offense was easy; scoring 31 points on their defense took skill.

3.  Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0) [1] : Unfortunately the gap between the top three and the rest of the rankings is too large to push Pittsburgh down any lower.  Really, tonight's game was an embarrassment!

4.  Green Bay Packers (8-3) [5] : The Bears normally stiff defense couldn't stop the Pack

5.  Baltimore Ravens (6-5) [6] : Look at what they can do with a bunch of second stringers and practice squad players who got almost no time to practice together!

6.  Miami Dolphins (7-4) [8] : Nice game, but it was against the Jets, so does it even count?

7.  Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [4] : They couldn't stop the big plays of the Titans.  Back to drawing board for the defensive backfield.

8.  Tampa Bay Bucs (7-5) [7] : This team could be better, but they have to work on their consistency.  They can be brilliant one week and then stink the next.

9.  Tennessee Titans (8-3) [12] : Commanding win over the Colts to seal the lead in the division

10. Seattle Seahawks (8-3) [11] : Had some trouble with the Eagles, but they do know how to finish a game well.

11. Los Angeles Rams (7-4) [9] : Came up short in their rivalry game against the 49ers

12. Arizona Cardinals (6-5) [10] : Their offense had some trouble getting going against the Patriots.  Kyler Murray still needs some work.

13. Buffalo Bills (8-3) [13]

14. Cleveland Browns (8-3) [16] : They allowed too much scoring by the Jaguars, who have the second worst record in the league

15. San Francisco 49ers (5-6) [15] : Great win over the Rams to keep the 49ers in postseason conversation

16. Atlanta Falcons (4-7) [24] : What?  How did they sneak in here?  How about by engineering the most dominating performance of the week by manhandling the Raiders, that's how.

Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC West [1] : It's now close, as only 1/2 of a point separate the top three divisions.  The NFC West has all of their teams in the upper half of the league's power rankings, though, which is not an easy feat.

2.  AFC North [2] : The losers looked good and the winners didn't, but you still can't knock the potential talent among these teams.

3.  NFC South [3] : With Atlanta's strong win, only Carolina has a negative point differential.

4 (3-way tie). NFC North [5] : Minnesota and Green Bay look good, and Detroit has their moments.  I'm hoping the Bears defense will bounce back.

4 (3-way tie). AFC East [6] : Strong wins by the top three teams.  The Jets continue to drag them down.

4 (3-way tie). AFC South [6] : Houston had a nice win, and the Titans and Colts are threats.

7.  AFC West [4] : Let's face it -- this division is basically the Chiefs, although the Raiders occasionally get some life.  This will be the first divisional crown, and it could happen this week.

8.  NFC East [8] : Do I have to keep including them?

Week 13 picks

Sunday early games

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins : The Bengals just can't seem to muster enough power to make it through an entire game.  While this game may be close early, the Dolphins will pull away in the second half.  DOLPHINS, 27-17

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans : The Browns have had a good year, but the Titans just have a bit more strength.  This game could go either way, though, depending upon the arm of Baker Mayfield.  TITANS, 30-26

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears : Ah, the Bears have a team with an offense struggling as much (or perhaps more) as they are.  A return of the Bears defense should assure victory.  BEARS, 26-20

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans : The Texans are starting to get some life, but their defense is still off the rails.  The Texans do tend to play better against divisional opponents, though, so this game will be closer than it deserves.  COLTS, 27-23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings : The Jags have been showing some life signs of late, and Cousins has been making some bad decisions, but the Vikings defense will be too much for Jacksonville.  VIKINGS, 27-16

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets : The Raiders need a victory to remain in the hunt for the division crown.  Fortunately, they battle the absolute WORST team in the league.  They'll survive for another week.  RAIDERS, 24-6

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons offense came alive last week, so the Saints defense has to stay alert.  The Falcons defense, however, will have their hands full with mobile quarterback Taysom Hill.  SAINTS, 31-20

Sunday late games

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals : On paper, these two teams are pretty well matched.  The Cardinals have been playing extra tough against divisional opponents, however, and I think they will do that again.  CARDS, 26-23

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers : The Chargers are a team that can keep games close, but they have trouble closing them out.  Not a problem for the Patriots and Coach Belichick.  PATS, 24-21

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks : At the time I am writing this, the health of Giants QB Daniel Jones is in question.  If he doesn't play, this will be a rout.  Even if he does play, the Seahawks will likely win.  Maybe he should rest an extra week.  SEAHAWKS, 23-10

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers : The Pack offense is just too fast for the Eagles secondary.  PACK, 30-17

Sunday night

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs : The Broncos have to face another high-powered offense.  Will they have an actual quarterback cleared to play?  Uncertain at this time.  CHIEFS, 34-6

Monday

Washington (this space left intentionally blank) at Pittsburgh Steelers : COVID gives us another unusual scheduling fluke - a Monday afternoon game.  Since the Steelers only just played on Wednesday night, the league gives them some room to breathe, and moves their Sunday game to Monday afternoon.  More time for Washington to rue their fate.  STEELERS, 27-17

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers : The 49ers play a home game in Glendale, Arizona because Santa Clara, CA is off-limits to outsiders due to wide-spread coronavirus.  Will the move make it hard for the 49ers?  Probably not, but the dry desert air may help the loft on Bills QB Josh Allen's passes.  BILLS, 24-23

Tuesday night

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens : And the other game pushed back due to tonight's Wednesday COVID delay finds a ramshackle Cowboys team facing a ragtag Ravens team.  After what we say tonight, though, there is no question that the Ravens have the upper hand.  RAVENS, 20-13

 

Big Ten 2020 Week 6 Power Rankings and Week 7 picks

 Unless something drastic happens next week, it looks like most of the Big Ten teams will play at least seven games in this COVID-ravaged season, making six games the requirement for bowl eligibility and playing in the conference championship game.  If that holds, then Wisconsin will be ineligible for both, having only played three games in the first six weeks.  Minnesota is in danger, as their game this week is cancelled, and last week's game was cancelled.  They must play on Dec 12th.  Ohio State needs to play both of these last two weeks as well.  If all five currently-scheduled games play this week, every other conference team will have played at least six games (with four of them playing seven).

Team Power Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [1]

2.  Indiana Hoosiers (5-1) [2] : Maryland slowed their offense, but the defense showed they can be just as brutal

3.  Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) [4] : Four consecutive wins propels the Hawkeyes to the upper echelons of the conference.  Unfortunately, a one-point loss to Northwestern, and the Wildcats not playing this week and guaranteeing no more than two losses, leaves them on the outside of the conference championship.

4.  Northwestern Wildcats (5-1) [3] : They lost to Michigan State, but the cancellation of this week's game guarantees them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

5.  Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) [5]

6.  Maryland Terrapins (2-2) [6] : They lost to Indiana, but their defense was impressive enough to hold at Number Six.

7.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-3) [7]

8.  Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3) [9]

9.  Michigan State Spartans (2-3) [13] : Well, at least they have another win along with beating their in-state rival.  The defense showed up nicely, but the offense still needs work.

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-4) [12] : Nice win over Purdue!

11. Purdue Boilermakers (2-3) [8]

12. Michigan Wolverines (2-4) [10] : They got beat by Penn State, who hadn't won a game all season.  Yeah, we knew they would eventually win one, but I'll bet the Wolverines wish it had taken one more week.

13. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-5) [14] : They are out of the cellar, and I'll bet that feels good!

14. Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-4) [11] : And that puts Nebraska squarely at the bottom

Week 6 picks

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans : They are happy to be playing, and will grind up the Spartans.  The only hope for Sparty is if the same defense that showed up last week turns out again.  Against the powerful Buckeyes offense, though, I don't think so.  OHIO STATE by 18

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers : Purdue has been a threat, despite losing three games in a row.  I think that streak will end against the Cornhuskers, who just can't seem to get it together.  PURDUE by three

Penn State Nittany Lions at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Can Penn State make it two in a row?  They certainly have the talent to beat Rutgers, but that talent hadn't really show up since the Ohio State loss, at least not until last week.  Was the Michigan game a fluke, or the start of a Lions revival?  I'll pick Rutgers due to the their momentum, but this game could go either way.  RUTGERS by three

Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers : Can Wisconsin's defense slow down the Hoosiers enough to stay in the game?  I don't think so.  Normally I'd say the Badgers ground game would be an advantage, but not this year.  INDIANA by 14

Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini : Illinois has most of their starters back, but the Hawkeyes have been excelling since a season-opening two-week skid.  I think the Illini will keep this one close, but Iowa will triumph.  IOWA by six