The entire NFC North failed to win a game this week, but the division still has fewer teams with losing records than any division in the AFC. Right now, it's beginning to look like the sixth seed in the AFC will have a 7-9 record. I'll start analyzing the division races and playoff seeds starting next week, so we'll see how that develops in the coming weeks.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [1] : Not hurt by a bye at all
2. New Orleans Saints (9-2) [3] : Not an impressive win over struggling Atlanta, but it was a win. The AFC's top teams couldn't win this week.
3. Denver Broncos (9-2) [2] : Who gives up a 24-point halftime lead? With the worst showing by Peyton Manning in years (only 150 yards passing), the knocks against him and cold weather success are happening again. Remember, this year's Super Bowl is in cold and windy New Jersey.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-3) [5] : On a seven-game winning streak, this is the hottest team in the league right now.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) [4] : San Diego knocked them off to cause a two-game losing streak, and they face Denver again this week. Fortunes are turning for the Chiefs.
6. San Francisco 49ers (7-4) [6] : Their defense showed life as the 49ers are getting their act together again
7. New England Patriots (8-3) [8] : Tom Brady engineered a tremendous comeback. I'll admit, as a East coast resident who had a long Monday ahead of him, I went to sleep thinking the Broncos had that game sewn up. Never underestimate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [7]
9. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [11] : The Cards are getting it together. With Carson Palmer providing consistency and ability at quarterback, and the defense starting to stiffen up, this team could challenge San Francisco for the sixth seed.
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-4) [9] : Arizona burned them to show that consistency is still lacking in Indy.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [1] : The NFC West's lead expands, as they now have three Top Ten teams and the Rams are nearly 50%. Unquestionably the best team in the league.
2. AFC West [2] : San Diego was the only winner, but the others didn't lose too badly. Still, this division has been falling recently. They still hold a sizable lead over the third place division.
3. NFC South [3] : Two teams in the Top Five and Tampa Bay is on a three-game winning streak. If it weren't for Atlanta, this would be a hot division.
4. AFC North [5] : Their best team had a bye and they still lept over their counterpart division in the NFC. Pitt and Baltimore both had strong showings, but they face each other this week, so I'm not sure if this lead can hold.
5. NFC North [4] : As I stated earlier, nobody won this week, and Chicago's defense stunk. They play each other this week, so that may balance them out.
6. AFC East [6] : The Patriots pulled off the aforementioned second half comeback, but the Jets looked sickly and Miami's defense couldn't hold back Carolina. They can't coast on New England all season.
7. NFC East [7] : Still showing improvement, they are creeping up to their AFC counterparts.
8. AFC South [8] : While Jacksonville is no longer the worst team in the league, this division still has the worst team - the Texans (although Atlanta is battling for that distinction). With Indy and Tennessee struggling with consistency and the other half of the division scraping the bottom of the league's barrel, this division seems destined to sit at the bottom the rest of the season.
Seattle could clinch the NFC West title this week. I don't think they will, but it could happen. Let's look at the games to see how:
Thanksgiving Day games
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: It was only a few years ago that fans were clamoring to take away the traditional Detroit Thanksgiving Day game, because the team was so bad. Now the Lions lead the NFC North (after last week, not exactly a compliment) and are favored against a Rodgers-less Packers. Former backup Matt Flynn came in to salvage the Packers last week, but the Lions defense is better than the porous one in Minnesota. LIONS, 27-23
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys tend to play well on Thanksgiving; in fact, in some years, it has been the final decent game of the regular season, as the Cowboys have frequently had terrible December skids. We're not sure if Terrelle Pryor will play, and I'm not sure his presence would help them win anyway. COWBOYS, 27-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Thursday night has an interesting game. The Steelers are looking good right now, while the Ravens can't decide if they want to play like the defending Super Bowl Champs or chumps. Pitt has the better division record, but I think the Ravens will pull off one more defensive battle in front of a national audience. RAVENS, 23-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have found their spark again, but we've seen how quickly that can be extinguished. Chip Kelly's offense only works if they can maintain an early lead. While the Eagles may strike first, the Cards will bounce back. If the Cards can take a lead into the halftime locker room, I think they'll win. This game will be close regardless, but I like what Carson Palmer has been doing. CARDS, 24-23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: The Bears running defense was just atrocious last week. Adrian Peterson has had some of his best games against the Bears, and I think he'll gain nearly 200 yards. However, that won't be enough to win the game. The Vikings passing attack is a joke, I think Ponder (or whoever plays) will have at least two interceptions. Josh McCown has this offense humming, and the Bears will win the battle of field position thanks to at least three Vikings turnovers. BEARS, 30-26
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns: The Jags have won two of their last three games and Chad Henne is looking pretty good. The Browns need a strong win to erase the debacle against Pittsburgh, and this defense has the ability to give the Jags fits. BROWNS, 23-17
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: The Jets offense is terrible, and their defense is not working well enough to get them out of their jam. Ryan Tannehill is leading the Dolphins well, and I think he will outmaneuver the struggling Jets defense. DOLPHINS, 24-16
New England Patriots at Houston Texans: The Texans are just looking pathetic. They couldn't score a touchdown against Jacksonville, for heaven's sake! The Pats won't need a miraculous comeback here. PATS, 27-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is rolling! With the Saints facing Seattle this week, the Panthers see a chance to tie them atop the NFC South. The Bucs have a winning streak right now themselves, but the Panthers defense, combined with the leadership of Cam Newton, will pull the Panthers ahead. PANTHERS, 24-16
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts looked terrible against the Cardinals, but that might have been fortuitous. The Colts have not had two consecutive poor outings from Andrew Luck, so the Colts should bounce back this week and get past the Titans, although it will be close. After all, most of the Titans games have been close this season. COLTS, 26-23
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: The worst team in the NFC goes up against a struggling AFC team. Given the NFC's dominance this season, I'm almost inclined to pick Atlanta. However, the Falcons are looking just dreadful. Also, the Bills had a bye week, so they had an extra week to prepare and heal up some guys. BILLS, 26-23
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Speaking of bye weeks, Cincy had one, too. Excellently timed, as they got to see how San Diego's offense rolled over the Chiefs defense. They can plan some extra strategy and find a way to stay ahead of San Diego. BENGALS, 27-23
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs exchanged the lead with San Diego last week. Denver blew a huge first half lead. Since this game will not be in the bitter confines of Foxboro, I think the Broncos offense will roll over a Chiefs defense that is suddenly showing cracks. BRONCOS, 30-24
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Believe it or not, the Rams have a 3-0-1 record against the 49ers in their last four bouts. That's even better than Seattle's record in their last four encounters with San Fran! Could the Rams extend it to 4-0-1? I think they might, but I'll go with a revitalized 49ers team. Still, this one could easily go the other way. Personally, I think this would have been the better choice for the Sunday night game. 49ERS, 24-20
Sunday night
New York Giants at Washington Redskins: I've been listening to the NYC and local sports shows already dismiss the Giants. Since Jason Pierre-Paul stated that they had to beat the Cowboys, and they didn't, everyone seems ready to dismiss the Giants. While I am no Giants fan, I think that is premature. I think an 8-8 record might be sufficient to win this division. Dallas and Philly look good now, but we've already seen how Chip Kelly's offense can suddenly falter in the NFL, and I anticipate another December slide for the Cowboys. The Giants still have a chance, but they must win this game. The Redskins are struggling, and conflicts among the players and outbursts by RGIII are distracting them enough to open the door for the Giants. GIANTS, 26-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks: The Saints are unbeaten on the road and the Seahawks are unbeaten at home. Something has to give. These two will battle back and forth, much like San Diego and the Chiefs did last week, but I think the edge will be the Seahawks defense. SEAHAWKS, 26-24
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Sunday, November 24, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 14 piks
I got conservative in my picks last week, and shouldn't have. Upsets and surprises were plentiful. Georgia Southern garnered one of the key upsets of the day, knocking Florida out of bowl contention and becoming the first FCS school ever to defeat the Gators. Hawaii turned out their best offensive performance of the season, and it was on the road, as they forced Wyoming into overtime. Hawaii was trying to win their first game of the season, as was Georgia State, who pushed Arkansas State and nearly beat them. The Iowa State Cyclones DID win their first conference game, shutting out Kansas 34-0. Washington easily blew past Oregon State in a game residents on the East Coast probably did not watch.
The Top 25 wasn't immune to upsets and surprises. Oregon, whose players had stated boredom and apathy about playing in the Rose Bowl, now don't have to worry about that, as Arizona dominated them in a 42-16 upset that likely destroyed Marcus Mariota's Heisman hopes. Johnny Manziel's chances to repeat as Heisman winner is also in danger, thanks to LSU's defensive dominance. Manziel had his worst statistical performance of his collegiate career, and didn't even complete 45% of his passes. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten HARD, losing National title hopes in an overwhelming 49-17 loss.
Tues Nov 26
Western Michigan Broncos at #16 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies have already won their division, but I don't see them resting too many players, as they want that unbeaten season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 27
Thurs Nov 28
The NFL may still rule Thanksgiving Day, but we have a couple of college games to enjoy.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Rebels want to bounce back from a frustrating loss to Missouri. These in-state rivalries can always be tough to pick, as records go out the window, but I'll give the Rebels their due. OLE MISS by ten
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Whoa, this game should be a doozy! Texas is stronger than most of the national analysts believe, and can play both sides of the ball well. Tech has a good offense (although recent injuries have weakened it a bit), but their defense stinks. That's why I pick Texas. TEXAS by 12
Fri Nov 29
Some great games are on tap for the day after Thanksgiving. Don't get too excited, or your leftover turkey won't digest properly!
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: While both teams are simply playing for bowl position, Nebraska players know that every victory helps secure their coach's job. That sounds like incentive enough to win this game, although Iowa's defense won't make that easy. NEBRASKA by eight
#22 East Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Conference USA East division title is on the line as these two teams square off. While East Carolina started slowly, they have steadily improved. Marshall is a powerhouse this season, though. While this game could go either way, I'll give a slight edge to the improved defense of the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA by six
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals: Two red bird mascots square off, but that's about all they have in common. Miami Ohio is looking for their first win of the season, while the Cardinals are one of the most dominant teams in the MAC. Looks like the Redhawks will go winless. BALL STATE by 34
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls: This game should be a dandy! The MAC East title is on the line here, so both teams will play hard. Bowling Green is more used to these situations. While my sentiments run towards Buffalo, I have to give the Falcons an edge. BOWLING GREEN by nine
Arkansas Razorbacks at #14 LSU Tigers: I don't foresee a letdown after their pulverizing of Texas A&M. Zavh Mettenberger knows he has Heisman chances, and he wants one final chance to impress the voters. LSU by 24
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans: Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State has already won their division. Also like Northern Illinois, a perfect season still hangs in the balance, so their biggest stars will still play. FRESNO STATE by 16
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies: After crushing Oregon State on the road, the Huskies return home to face their in-state rival. The incentive to win this game is too great; they won't disappoint. WASHINGTON by 20
Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks: Both teams need a win to remove the sting of terrible losses last week. Oregon may not have wanted the Rose Bowl, but they know one more loss removes them from playing a big money bowl game. They'll get their act together for this game, but expect the Beavers to keep it close. OREGON by 13
South Florida Bulls at #17 UCF Golden Knights: UCF knows what they need to do to win the first American Athletic Conference title -- win out. They'll get this win, needing just one more next week. UCF by 23
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #12 Auburn Tigers: For the first time in the history of the rivalry, the SEC West title is at stake. I find that amazing. The Iron Bowl is always a fierce battle. Both teams are well rested and ready to rumble. Auburn has engineered the best single season turnaround in school history, and want to make it the best in SEC history, but Alabama stands in the way. Both teams are strong offenses, but Alabama's defense gives them the edge. ALABAMA by 13
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators: The Gators have already lost a bowl bid, shattering the longest current bowl streak. The Seminoles are out to rack up the best seasonal offensive showing in school history. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines: No doubt about it, it's tough to play in the Big House. Michigan may have lost some punch this season, but this game and its intense rivalry will still be exciting. It sometimes takes Ohio State a big of time to get their rhythm, so Michigan might take an early lead, but the Buckeyes will end up winning the game and keeping their perfect season intact. OHIO STATE by 16
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at #5 Missouri Tigers: The Tigers need this victory to win the SEC East, but Johnny Manziel and company want to finish strongly and assure themselves a good bowl. This game will be tough. LSU showed how to beat the Aggies, but can we count on another poor showing by Manziel and the offense? I think the Aggies will score more than 10 points, but I don't think they'll get their usual 40+ points. Missouri can score, too, and I think they will score a late touchdown to win the game. MISSOURI by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal won't slack off just because they have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship -- this is Notre Dame, after all! The Irish are guaranteed a bowl spot, but the Cardinal will ensure it's not a prestigious one. STANFORD by 12
#8 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs: Their National Championship hopes are dashed, and a Big XII title is in doubt, but Baylor still wants to win to gain a strong bowl. BAYLOR by 24
#9 Clemson Tigers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: Clemson and South Carolina both got nice and easy FCS opponents to warm up for this game. Tahj Boyd will be playing, but I don't think he'll be 100%. That might give the Gamecocks' defense an edge. That same defense has disappointed me earlier in this season, so I'll pick Clemson, but don't be surprised by a Gamecocks upset. CLEMSON by three
Penn State Nittany Lions at #10 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have no chance at the Rose Bowl (and, unlike Oregon, are disappointed by that), but they know a win lands them a strong bowl, likely a New Years Day one. WISCONSIN by 16
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Well, this game didn't turn out like Minnesota hoped. They wanted to win last week and be playing for the Legends division title. That won't happen. Minnesota might still want to be spoilers, but I don't think they can get past Michigan State's defense. After all, they couldn't get past Wisconsin's defense, and the Spartans are better. MICHIGAN STATE by 13
Arizona Wildcats at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another intense in-state rivalry that will put everyone on the field, despite already clinching a division title. The Sun Devils obviously don't want to risk injuring anyone before facing Stanford, but you won't be able to keep the kids off the field for this game. The Widlcats won't be pushovers, either, so they might need the starts. ARIZONA STATE by 18
#25 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels: I would certainly love Duke to win their first ACC division title ever, and play for their first ACC title in over seventy years. North Carolina won't make it easy, though. The Tar Heels have reversed a disasterous 1-5 start with five consecutive wins, four against ACC teams. Of course, except for Georgia Tech, they were the among the weakest teams in the conference, so we're not sure what to make of it. I'll pick Duke, but the Tar Heels could play spoiler and make the Coastal title picture murky. DUKE by six
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense will roll over the Boilermakers, meaning Purdue would fail to beat a single FBS opponent this season. INDIANA by 17
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini broke their Big Ten jinx with a close win at Purdue. I would feel more comfortable if the offense had done better, but now they get rival Northwestern at home to close the season. Northwestern, after the reaching the Top 25 will tremendous non-conference victories, collapsed in conference play. They never seemed to recover from their conference opener against Ohio State. Northwestern is the better team, but my heart wants Illinois to win, so I'm picking the upset. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest
Friday had most of these, but here's one with major implications:
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies win the Mountain West Mountain division with a win here, regardless of how Boise plays that evening. Wyoming may be exhausted after the offensive showcase exhibited with Hawaii this past weekend, so I like the Aggies chances to win outright. UTAH STATE by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: #21 UCLA Bruins at #24 USC Trojans: There are plenty of rivalry games this weekend. Why did I pick this one for the Game of the Week? First of all, this one matches the intensity of the Iron Bowl and Ohio State v Michigan. There is usually at least one brawl during this game. Also, these two teams are more closely matched than the other rivalries. Truthfully this game could go either way. UCLA has the better offense, and a desire to correct for this past weekend's debacle. The Trojans have a chance to make a stand for their interim coach, Ed Orgeron, whose name is finally in the pool of candidates for the full-time coaching position. A victory over their bitter crosstown rivals will certainly go a long way towards sealing that deal. I think this game could come down to ball control, which USC has been doing better recently. USC by three
The Top 25 wasn't immune to upsets and surprises. Oregon, whose players had stated boredom and apathy about playing in the Rose Bowl, now don't have to worry about that, as Arizona dominated them in a 42-16 upset that likely destroyed Marcus Mariota's Heisman hopes. Johnny Manziel's chances to repeat as Heisman winner is also in danger, thanks to LSU's defensive dominance. Manziel had his worst statistical performance of his collegiate career, and didn't even complete 45% of his passes. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten HARD, losing National title hopes in an overwhelming 49-17 loss.
Tues Nov 26
Western Michigan Broncos at #16 Northern Illinois Huskies: The Huskies have already won their division, but I don't see them resting too many players, as they want that unbeaten season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 27
Thurs Nov 28
The NFL may still rule Thanksgiving Day, but we have a couple of college games to enjoy.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Rebels want to bounce back from a frustrating loss to Missouri. These in-state rivalries can always be tough to pick, as records go out the window, but I'll give the Rebels their due. OLE MISS by ten
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns: Whoa, this game should be a doozy! Texas is stronger than most of the national analysts believe, and can play both sides of the ball well. Tech has a good offense (although recent injuries have weakened it a bit), but their defense stinks. That's why I pick Texas. TEXAS by 12
Fri Nov 29
Some great games are on tap for the day after Thanksgiving. Don't get too excited, or your leftover turkey won't digest properly!
Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: While both teams are simply playing for bowl position, Nebraska players know that every victory helps secure their coach's job. That sounds like incentive enough to win this game, although Iowa's defense won't make that easy. NEBRASKA by eight
#22 East Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd: The Conference USA East division title is on the line as these two teams square off. While East Carolina started slowly, they have steadily improved. Marshall is a powerhouse this season, though. While this game could go either way, I'll give a slight edge to the improved defense of the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA by six
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ball State Cardinals: Two red bird mascots square off, but that's about all they have in common. Miami Ohio is looking for their first win of the season, while the Cardinals are one of the most dominant teams in the MAC. Looks like the Redhawks will go winless. BALL STATE by 34
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls: This game should be a dandy! The MAC East title is on the line here, so both teams will play hard. Bowling Green is more used to these situations. While my sentiments run towards Buffalo, I have to give the Falcons an edge. BOWLING GREEN by nine
Arkansas Razorbacks at #14 LSU Tigers: I don't foresee a letdown after their pulverizing of Texas A&M. Zavh Mettenberger knows he has Heisman chances, and he wants one final chance to impress the voters. LSU by 24
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans: Like Northern Illinois, Fresno State has already won their division. Also like Northern Illinois, a perfect season still hangs in the balance, so their biggest stars will still play. FRESNO STATE by 16
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies: After crushing Oregon State on the road, the Huskies return home to face their in-state rival. The incentive to win this game is too great; they won't disappoint. WASHINGTON by 20
Oregon State Beavers at #13 Oregon Ducks: Both teams need a win to remove the sting of terrible losses last week. Oregon may not have wanted the Rose Bowl, but they know one more loss removes them from playing a big money bowl game. They'll get their act together for this game, but expect the Beavers to keep it close. OREGON by 13
South Florida Bulls at #17 UCF Golden Knights: UCF knows what they need to do to win the first American Athletic Conference title -- win out. They'll get this win, needing just one more next week. UCF by 23
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #12 Auburn Tigers: For the first time in the history of the rivalry, the SEC West title is at stake. I find that amazing. The Iron Bowl is always a fierce battle. Both teams are well rested and ready to rumble. Auburn has engineered the best single season turnaround in school history, and want to make it the best in SEC history, but Alabama stands in the way. Both teams are strong offenses, but Alabama's defense gives them the edge. ALABAMA by 13
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators: The Gators have already lost a bowl bid, shattering the longest current bowl streak. The Seminoles are out to rack up the best seasonal offensive showing in school history. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines: No doubt about it, it's tough to play in the Big House. Michigan may have lost some punch this season, but this game and its intense rivalry will still be exciting. It sometimes takes Ohio State a big of time to get their rhythm, so Michigan might take an early lead, but the Buckeyes will end up winning the game and keeping their perfect season intact. OHIO STATE by 16
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at #5 Missouri Tigers: The Tigers need this victory to win the SEC East, but Johnny Manziel and company want to finish strongly and assure themselves a good bowl. This game will be tough. LSU showed how to beat the Aggies, but can we count on another poor showing by Manziel and the offense? I think the Aggies will score more than 10 points, but I don't think they'll get their usual 40+ points. Missouri can score, too, and I think they will score a late touchdown to win the game. MISSOURI by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal won't slack off just because they have clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship -- this is Notre Dame, after all! The Irish are guaranteed a bowl spot, but the Cardinal will ensure it's not a prestigious one. STANFORD by 12
#8 Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs: Their National Championship hopes are dashed, and a Big XII title is in doubt, but Baylor still wants to win to gain a strong bowl. BAYLOR by 24
#9 Clemson Tigers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: Clemson and South Carolina both got nice and easy FCS opponents to warm up for this game. Tahj Boyd will be playing, but I don't think he'll be 100%. That might give the Gamecocks' defense an edge. That same defense has disappointed me earlier in this season, so I'll pick Clemson, but don't be surprised by a Gamecocks upset. CLEMSON by three
Penn State Nittany Lions at #10 Wisconsin Badgers: The Badgers have no chance at the Rose Bowl (and, unlike Oregon, are disappointed by that), but they know a win lands them a strong bowl, likely a New Years Day one. WISCONSIN by 16
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #11 Michigan State Spartans: Well, this game didn't turn out like Minnesota hoped. They wanted to win last week and be playing for the Legends division title. That won't happen. Minnesota might still want to be spoilers, but I don't think they can get past Michigan State's defense. After all, they couldn't get past Wisconsin's defense, and the Spartans are better. MICHIGAN STATE by 13
Arizona Wildcats at #15 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another intense in-state rivalry that will put everyone on the field, despite already clinching a division title. The Sun Devils obviously don't want to risk injuring anyone before facing Stanford, but you won't be able to keep the kids off the field for this game. The Widlcats won't be pushovers, either, so they might need the starts. ARIZONA STATE by 18
#25 Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels: I would certainly love Duke to win their first ACC division title ever, and play for their first ACC title in over seventy years. North Carolina won't make it easy, though. The Tar Heels have reversed a disasterous 1-5 start with five consecutive wins, four against ACC teams. Of course, except for Georgia Tech, they were the among the weakest teams in the conference, so we're not sure what to make of it. I'll pick Duke, but the Tar Heels could play spoiler and make the Coastal title picture murky. DUKE by six
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana's offense will roll over the Boilermakers, meaning Purdue would fail to beat a single FBS opponent this season. INDIANA by 17
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini broke their Big Ten jinx with a close win at Purdue. I would feel more comfortable if the offense had done better, but now they get rival Northwestern at home to close the season. Northwestern, after the reaching the Top 25 will tremendous non-conference victories, collapsed in conference play. They never seemed to recover from their conference opener against Ohio State. Northwestern is the better team, but my heart wants Illinois to win, so I'm picking the upset. ILLINOIS by three
Other Games of Interest
Friday had most of these, but here's one with major implications:
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies win the Mountain West Mountain division with a win here, regardless of how Boise plays that evening. Wyoming may be exhausted after the offensive showcase exhibited with Hawaii this past weekend, so I like the Aggies chances to win outright. UTAH STATE by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: #21 UCLA Bruins at #24 USC Trojans: There are plenty of rivalry games this weekend. Why did I pick this one for the Game of the Week? First of all, this one matches the intensity of the Iron Bowl and Ohio State v Michigan. There is usually at least one brawl during this game. Also, these two teams are more closely matched than the other rivalries. Truthfully this game could go either way. UCLA has the better offense, and a desire to correct for this past weekend's debacle. The Trojans have a chance to make a stand for their interim coach, Ed Orgeron, whose name is finally in the pool of candidates for the full-time coaching position. A victory over their bitter crosstown rivals will certainly go a long way towards sealing that deal. I think this game could come down to ball control, which USC has been doing better recently. USC by three
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 13
Some interesting results this week. Baylor fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. Oregon said they didn't want to play in Rose Bowl, so they lost and won't be going. There was plenty of movement within the Top 25, as Texas A&M and UCLA also lost. Let's see what we have now...
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : This offensive behemoth shows no signs of letting up
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) [4] : A strong victory over Indiana secured them third place, which they should keep unless Michigan upsets them.
4. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) [5]
5. Missouri Tigers (10-1) [6] : Impressive win over Ole Miss, but I wasn't surprised. National analysts crowed about Ole Miss, they had a fairly easy stretch of games leading to this one.
6. Stanford Cardinal (9-2) [8] : They won the Pac-12 North thanks to a pouting Oregon team
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [14] : Their complete dominance of Baylor hoisted them into this lofty part of the rankings
8. Baylor Bears (9-1) [3] : Big gap between #7 and here
9. Clemson Tigers (10-1) [9]
10. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [11] : Wisconsin beat Minnesota with a strong defensive performance, but failed to win their division.
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-1) [13] : Speaking of strong defensive performances, how about the best defense in the Big Ten?
12. Auburn Tigers (10-1) [12]
13. Oregon Ducks (9-2) [7] : If they lose once more, they won't have to worry about playing in a New Years Day bowl. They have to be careful, though - they need the money of the big-time bowls to pay for their fleet of uniforms!
14. LSU Tigers (8-3) [16] : Great defeat of Johnny Manziel and the Aggies
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) [17] : UCLA roared back after trailing by more than three touchdowns, but they couldn't quite make it
16. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-0) [18] : The Huskies won their division and remained unbeaten
17. UCF Golden Knights (9-1) [20] : Another strong performance keeps them ahead of Louisville for the conference title
18. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) [10] : One of the worst games of Johnny Manziel's career has put their New Years Day bowl hopes in jeopardy.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) [19]
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-0) [21] : Unbeaten and going to the inaugural Mountain West Championship Game, the Bulldogs are having a stellar season.
21. UCLA Bruins (8-3) [15] : Any hopes for the Pac-12 title are dashed
22. East Carolina Pirates (9-2) [23] : Dominant victory keeps them on pace for the Conference USA title game
23. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [22] : Eked out a close win to keep pace in a suddenly crowded Big XII title picture
24. USC Trojans (9-3) [24] : Strong win, even though the division title was already out of reach
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-2) [NR] : For the first time since I've been doing this ranking, Duke finds themselves listed. Historic season for them!
Dropped off: Houston Cougars [#25]
On the Edge: Bowling Green Falcons (8-3), Ball State Cardinals (9-2), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2), Marshall Thundering Herd (8-3), Washington Huskies (7-4), Buffalo Bulls (8-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-4), Utah State Aggies (7-4)
Several division titles were awarded, and other pictures are now very clear:
American Athletic: It's UCF's to lose. If the Knights win out, they win the conference. One more win knocks out Louisville from contention, but leaves the door open to Cincinnati. Since they didn't play each other, UCF would have to finish with a higher BCS ranking to win a tiebreaker with one-loss Cincy.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Duke wins if they beat North Carolina. If the Tar Heels win, it gets messy.
Big XII: If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys win. A Sooners upset opens the door to the winner of the Baylor-Texas bout, provided both teams win this weekend.
Big Ten Leaders: OHIO STATE
Big Ten Legends: MICHIGAN STATE
Conference USA East: The winner of this week's East Carolina - Marshall match-up wins the division
Conference USA West: Rice wins if they beat Tulane. A Green Wave win creates a potential 3-way tie (unless North Texas loses, in which case the winner of Rice-Tulane wins the division)
MAC East: The winner of Friday's bout between Bowling Green and Buffalo will decide the champion
MAC West: NORTHERN ILLINOIS has won this title
Mountain West Mountain: Thanks to San Diego State, Utah State captures the crown if they beat Wyoming. Since Boise previously beat the Aggies, the Broncos can still win if they win this week and Utah State loses.
Mountain West West: FRESNO STATE has won
Pac-12 North: STANFORD wins the right to play for a shot at the Rose Bowl
Pac-12 South: ARIZONA STATE captured the title by holding back a UCLA comeback
SEC East: Missouri wins if they beat Texas A&M. An Aggies win gives the title to South Carolina
SEC West: This division will be decided by the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama
Sun Belt: The Ragin Cajuns of LOUISIANA-lAFAYETTE won the conference
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) [1]
2. Florida State Seminoles (11-0) [2] : This offensive behemoth shows no signs of letting up
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) [4] : A strong victory over Indiana secured them third place, which they should keep unless Michigan upsets them.
4. Louisville Cardinals (10-1) [5]
5. Missouri Tigers (10-1) [6] : Impressive win over Ole Miss, but I wasn't surprised. National analysts crowed about Ole Miss, they had a fairly easy stretch of games leading to this one.
6. Stanford Cardinal (9-2) [8] : They won the Pac-12 North thanks to a pouting Oregon team
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [14] : Their complete dominance of Baylor hoisted them into this lofty part of the rankings
8. Baylor Bears (9-1) [3] : Big gap between #7 and here
9. Clemson Tigers (10-1) [9]
10. Wisconsin Badgers (9-2) [11] : Wisconsin beat Minnesota with a strong defensive performance, but failed to win their division.
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-1) [13] : Speaking of strong defensive performances, how about the best defense in the Big Ten?
12. Auburn Tigers (10-1) [12]
13. Oregon Ducks (9-2) [7] : If they lose once more, they won't have to worry about playing in a New Years Day bowl. They have to be careful, though - they need the money of the big-time bowls to pay for their fleet of uniforms!
14. LSU Tigers (8-3) [16] : Great defeat of Johnny Manziel and the Aggies
15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) [17] : UCLA roared back after trailing by more than three touchdowns, but they couldn't quite make it
16. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-0) [18] : The Huskies won their division and remained unbeaten
17. UCF Golden Knights (9-1) [20] : Another strong performance keeps them ahead of Louisville for the conference title
18. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) [10] : One of the worst games of Johnny Manziel's career has put their New Years Day bowl hopes in jeopardy.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-2) [19]
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (10-0) [21] : Unbeaten and going to the inaugural Mountain West Championship Game, the Bulldogs are having a stellar season.
21. UCLA Bruins (8-3) [15] : Any hopes for the Pac-12 title are dashed
22. East Carolina Pirates (9-2) [23] : Dominant victory keeps them on pace for the Conference USA title game
23. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [22] : Eked out a close win to keep pace in a suddenly crowded Big XII title picture
24. USC Trojans (9-3) [24] : Strong win, even though the division title was already out of reach
25. Duke Blue Devils (9-2) [NR] : For the first time since I've been doing this ranking, Duke finds themselves listed. Historic season for them!
Dropped off: Houston Cougars [#25]
On the Edge: Bowling Green Falcons (8-3), Ball State Cardinals (9-2), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2), Marshall Thundering Herd (8-3), Washington Huskies (7-4), Buffalo Bulls (8-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-4), Utah State Aggies (7-4)
Several division titles were awarded, and other pictures are now very clear:
American Athletic: It's UCF's to lose. If the Knights win out, they win the conference. One more win knocks out Louisville from contention, but leaves the door open to Cincinnati. Since they didn't play each other, UCF would have to finish with a higher BCS ranking to win a tiebreaker with one-loss Cincy.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Duke wins if they beat North Carolina. If the Tar Heels win, it gets messy.
Big XII: If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, the Cowboys win. A Sooners upset opens the door to the winner of the Baylor-Texas bout, provided both teams win this weekend.
Big Ten Leaders: OHIO STATE
Big Ten Legends: MICHIGAN STATE
Conference USA East: The winner of this week's East Carolina - Marshall match-up wins the division
Conference USA West: Rice wins if they beat Tulane. A Green Wave win creates a potential 3-way tie (unless North Texas loses, in which case the winner of Rice-Tulane wins the division)
MAC East: The winner of Friday's bout between Bowling Green and Buffalo will decide the champion
MAC West: NORTHERN ILLINOIS has won this title
Mountain West Mountain: Thanks to San Diego State, Utah State captures the crown if they beat Wyoming. Since Boise previously beat the Aggies, the Broncos can still win if they win this week and Utah State loses.
Mountain West West: FRESNO STATE has won
Pac-12 North: STANFORD wins the right to play for a shot at the Rose Bowl
Pac-12 South: ARIZONA STATE captured the title by holding back a UCLA comeback
SEC East: Missouri wins if they beat Texas A&M. An Aggies win gives the title to South Carolina
SEC West: This division will be decided by the Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama
Sun Belt: The Ragin Cajuns of LOUISIANA-lAFAYETTE won the conference
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 12 Power Rankings and picks
The NFC is definitely asserting its dominance. Only five AFC teams have winning records, while only seven NFC teams have losing records. Ten of the top 15 best teams are in the NFC. Even the NFC East, who had made the cellar their home, is rising. They trail the AFC East by only half a point, so they may leap over them this week.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [3] : An offense that trails only Denver and one of the stiffest defenses in the league makes the Seahawks dangerous. If they can iron out their road problems, they'll set themselves up for home field advantage in the playoffs, which could propel them to the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (9-1) [1] : Decisive win over the Chiefs to take the lead in the AFC West.
3. New Orleans Saints (8-2) [4] : The 49ers pushed them, but the Saints found a way to win
4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) [2] : They fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving no NFL team with a 0 in either the Win or Loss column.
5. Carolina Panthers (7-3) [5] : Whether you feel they should have won on Monday night or not, you cannot deny that they frustrated New England. They are chasing New Orleans for the division lead and risen to the Top Three in the NFC.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) [6] : The 49ers hung in against one of the best offenses in the league
7. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [9] : Cincy had a strong game against the Cleveland Browns, who have been faltering since their historic win over the Ravens.
8. New England Patriots (7-3) [7] : They committed two turnovers in the red zone. That's not normal for the Pats, whose offense still needs work.
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-3) [8] : Tight win over Tennessee
10. Chicago Bears (6-4) [12] : Big gap between #9 and #10, the Bears leap back into the Top Ten with a patient win over the defending Super Bowl champs
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : You see that right! A week after the NFC East rose from the cellar, the NFC West leaps over the AFC West. Three teams with winning records and the new top team in the league propels this division to the top.
2. AFC West [1] : This division isn't far behind, but they are hurt by a struggling San Diego team. The Chargers have the talent to reverse that, so this division might regain the top spot.
3. NFC South [4] : A strong win by Tampa Bay, who has now won two in a row, as well as wins by Carolina and New Orleans made this division one of the better ones this week.
4. NFC North [3] : Green Bay is crumbling without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears needed overtime to win. big losses by Detroit and Minnesota hurt, too.
5. AFC North [5] : This North is creeping up on the top half of the league, despite three 4-6 teams. Pittsburgh and Cincy had big wins and Baltimore played tough, so these teams cannot be ignored.
6. AFC East [6] : Buffalo and Miami had good wins, but the Jets looked terrible and the Pats turned over the ball too much. It's hard to get behind this division, as they will disappoint.
7. NFC East [7] : Both the Giants and Eagles are on runs. Washington still needs work, but they show flashes of brilliance. This is the point where they had their run last year, so don't discount them.
8. AFC South [8] : This division has fallen badly. Now fell behind the NFC East, the Jags and Texans look sick and the Titans are faltering. Only Indy saves them, but they still need more consistency.
Thursday night game
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are collapsing. They have a talented offense that can't seem to deliver. Their defense is porous, which is not a good thing against one of the best offenses in the league. The Saints should roll. SAINTS, 30-17
Sunday early games
Chicago Bears at St Louis Rams: My Bears are tied for the lead in the NFC North, so they know they need a win. They should beat the Rams, but the Rams can be an unpredictable team. They can have colossal losses, and then engineer a shocking win. I'll still stick with my Bears, especially since turnovers can be the Rams bane, and no team makes opponents pay for turnovers more than the Bears. BEARS, 27-23
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: Miami beat San Diego at home last week, but this is not the Chargers. The Panthers come in with one of the best defenses in the league, and an offense that is finally finding a balance (meaning Cam Newton doesn't have to do it all, even though he likes to on third down and short). Moreover, if the Saints win on Thursday, the Panthers know they need a win to keep pace in the division. PANTHERS, 23-16
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The two worst teams in the AFC face off. Who will fare worst? The Jags are undeniably the worst team in the league, but the Texans are turning over the ball more than any other team in the league. Still, I think the Texans will pull this one out, mainly because the Jags don't have much to take advantage of those turnovers. I do think the Texans streak of "pick six" will extend, though. TEXANS, 26-20
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Like the previous game, we face a division rivalry where both teams are on the skids. Green Bay's offense is floundering without Aaron Rodgers, and the defense is banged up. The Vikings defense is in worse shape, though, which might give the Packers an edge. Another advantage for the Packers - the Vikings run defense stinks. While the Packers aren't a running team when Rodgers is under center, the struggles of Tolzien give them a great opportunity to boost their ground game against a team that allows lots of ground yardage. PACK, 26-23
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have not looked too good, but they did stage a great comeback against the Bears last week. Moreover, the Jets just look pitiful. Geno Smith has taken a step backwards in his development, and the Ravens defense is likely to capitalize on that. RAVENS, 23-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are in free fall right now, while the Steelers are steadily improving. Unless the Browns get it together for this game, the Steelers will jump over them to get out of the cellar of the AFC North. STEELERS, 23-20
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers are just a downright mystery. They have talent, but they just keep making stupid mental and physical mistakes. The Chiefs, on the other hand, make the most of the personnel they have, especially on defense. San Diego has folded against tough defenses this year. CHIEFS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: These teams have a long history, dating back to when the Bucs were in the NFC Central division with them. These teams play each other tough. The Bucs are in the midst of a two-game winning streak and hoping to extend that. The Lions want to erase the sting of their loss last week. Calvin Johnson is having the best season of his storied career, and he'll be a challenge for the Bucs secondary to stop. LIONS, 27-23
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Dallas has the better offense, neither team has a decent defense, so the Cowboys should be able to score at will. However, the Giants have always played the Cowboys tough. In previous years when the Giants have been struggling, a victory over the Cowboys turned their season around. In fact, the last time they won the Super Bowl, they started 3-6, and a win against Dallas sparked the run that took them all the way to the Lombardi trophy. I'll pick Dallas, but the Giants could easily win this game. COWBOYS, 27-23
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: I may surprise people, but I'm picking the upset here. The Colts are not playing consistently well, and the Cardinals are an impressive 6-3 outside their division. Moreover, they are 4-1 at home. While the Colts have been an impressive road team this season, I am sticking with the upset. CARDINALS, 21-20
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: The Titans are in the midst of a downward spiral. While, for the season, the Raiders have a much worse point differential, in recent weeks the Raiders have looked better than the Titans, and I think the Titans' woes will continue. RAIDERS, 24-23
Sunday night
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: The Patriots offense is still faltering, although the return of Rob Gronkowski has perked it a bit. Monday Night showed how much Tom Brady relies on Gronk, so expect the Broncos to cover him. The Broncos defense isn't as good as Carolina's, so the Patriots will be able to score, but the Broncos offense is much better. The Patriots cannot win in an offensive shootout, but the big factor is this -- can THIS Patriots team beat Peyton Manning? The Pats and Tom Brady have traditionally ruled over Peyton, but the Broncos are different than the Colts when Peyton was there, and these Pats are not the same team that frustrated Manning. The Pats might pull off the upset, but I have to go with Denver. BRONCOS, 30-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: Both teams are suffering from offensive problems, so the key to this game is the strength of the respective defenses. Washington's defense is pretty porous, while the 49ers defense is their best squad, and it's one of the stiffest in the NFC. End of comparison. 49ERS, 28-20
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Seattle Seahawks (10-1) [3] : An offense that trails only Denver and one of the stiffest defenses in the league makes the Seahawks dangerous. If they can iron out their road problems, they'll set themselves up for home field advantage in the playoffs, which could propel them to the Super Bowl.
2. Denver Broncos (9-1) [1] : Decisive win over the Chiefs to take the lead in the AFC West.
3. New Orleans Saints (8-2) [4] : The 49ers pushed them, but the Saints found a way to win
4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) [2] : They fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving no NFL team with a 0 in either the Win or Loss column.
5. Carolina Panthers (7-3) [5] : Whether you feel they should have won on Monday night or not, you cannot deny that they frustrated New England. They are chasing New Orleans for the division lead and risen to the Top Three in the NFC.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-4) [6] : The 49ers hung in against one of the best offenses in the league
7. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) [9] : Cincy had a strong game against the Cleveland Browns, who have been faltering since their historic win over the Ravens.
8. New England Patriots (7-3) [7] : They committed two turnovers in the red zone. That's not normal for the Pats, whose offense still needs work.
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-3) [8] : Tight win over Tennessee
10. Chicago Bears (6-4) [12] : Big gap between #9 and #10, the Bears leap back into the Top Ten with a patient win over the defending Super Bowl champs
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : You see that right! A week after the NFC East rose from the cellar, the NFC West leaps over the AFC West. Three teams with winning records and the new top team in the league propels this division to the top.
2. AFC West [1] : This division isn't far behind, but they are hurt by a struggling San Diego team. The Chargers have the talent to reverse that, so this division might regain the top spot.
3. NFC South [4] : A strong win by Tampa Bay, who has now won two in a row, as well as wins by Carolina and New Orleans made this division one of the better ones this week.
4. NFC North [3] : Green Bay is crumbling without Aaron Rodgers and the Bears needed overtime to win. big losses by Detroit and Minnesota hurt, too.
5. AFC North [5] : This North is creeping up on the top half of the league, despite three 4-6 teams. Pittsburgh and Cincy had big wins and Baltimore played tough, so these teams cannot be ignored.
6. AFC East [6] : Buffalo and Miami had good wins, but the Jets looked terrible and the Pats turned over the ball too much. It's hard to get behind this division, as they will disappoint.
7. NFC East [7] : Both the Giants and Eagles are on runs. Washington still needs work, but they show flashes of brilliance. This is the point where they had their run last year, so don't discount them.
8. AFC South [8] : This division has fallen badly. Now fell behind the NFC East, the Jags and Texans look sick and the Titans are faltering. Only Indy saves them, but they still need more consistency.
Thursday night game
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are collapsing. They have a talented offense that can't seem to deliver. Their defense is porous, which is not a good thing against one of the best offenses in the league. The Saints should roll. SAINTS, 30-17
Sunday early games
Chicago Bears at St Louis Rams: My Bears are tied for the lead in the NFC North, so they know they need a win. They should beat the Rams, but the Rams can be an unpredictable team. They can have colossal losses, and then engineer a shocking win. I'll still stick with my Bears, especially since turnovers can be the Rams bane, and no team makes opponents pay for turnovers more than the Bears. BEARS, 27-23
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: Miami beat San Diego at home last week, but this is not the Chargers. The Panthers come in with one of the best defenses in the league, and an offense that is finally finding a balance (meaning Cam Newton doesn't have to do it all, even though he likes to on third down and short). Moreover, if the Saints win on Thursday, the Panthers know they need a win to keep pace in the division. PANTHERS, 23-16
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The two worst teams in the AFC face off. Who will fare worst? The Jags are undeniably the worst team in the league, but the Texans are turning over the ball more than any other team in the league. Still, I think the Texans will pull this one out, mainly because the Jags don't have much to take advantage of those turnovers. I do think the Texans streak of "pick six" will extend, though. TEXANS, 26-20
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Like the previous game, we face a division rivalry where both teams are on the skids. Green Bay's offense is floundering without Aaron Rodgers, and the defense is banged up. The Vikings defense is in worse shape, though, which might give the Packers an edge. Another advantage for the Packers - the Vikings run defense stinks. While the Packers aren't a running team when Rodgers is under center, the struggles of Tolzien give them a great opportunity to boost their ground game against a team that allows lots of ground yardage. PACK, 26-23
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have not looked too good, but they did stage a great comeback against the Bears last week. Moreover, the Jets just look pitiful. Geno Smith has taken a step backwards in his development, and the Ravens defense is likely to capitalize on that. RAVENS, 23-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are in free fall right now, while the Steelers are steadily improving. Unless the Browns get it together for this game, the Steelers will jump over them to get out of the cellar of the AFC North. STEELERS, 23-20
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers are just a downright mystery. They have talent, but they just keep making stupid mental and physical mistakes. The Chiefs, on the other hand, make the most of the personnel they have, especially on defense. San Diego has folded against tough defenses this year. CHIEFS, 23-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: These teams have a long history, dating back to when the Bucs were in the NFC Central division with them. These teams play each other tough. The Bucs are in the midst of a two-game winning streak and hoping to extend that. The Lions want to erase the sting of their loss last week. Calvin Johnson is having the best season of his storied career, and he'll be a challenge for the Bucs secondary to stop. LIONS, 27-23
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Dallas has the better offense, neither team has a decent defense, so the Cowboys should be able to score at will. However, the Giants have always played the Cowboys tough. In previous years when the Giants have been struggling, a victory over the Cowboys turned their season around. In fact, the last time they won the Super Bowl, they started 3-6, and a win against Dallas sparked the run that took them all the way to the Lombardi trophy. I'll pick Dallas, but the Giants could easily win this game. COWBOYS, 27-23
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: I may surprise people, but I'm picking the upset here. The Colts are not playing consistently well, and the Cardinals are an impressive 6-3 outside their division. Moreover, they are 4-1 at home. While the Colts have been an impressive road team this season, I am sticking with the upset. CARDINALS, 21-20
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: The Titans are in the midst of a downward spiral. While, for the season, the Raiders have a much worse point differential, in recent weeks the Raiders have looked better than the Titans, and I think the Titans' woes will continue. RAIDERS, 24-23
Sunday night
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: The Patriots offense is still faltering, although the return of Rob Gronkowski has perked it a bit. Monday Night showed how much Tom Brady relies on Gronk, so expect the Broncos to cover him. The Broncos defense isn't as good as Carolina's, so the Patriots will be able to score, but the Broncos offense is much better. The Patriots cannot win in an offensive shootout, but the big factor is this -- can THIS Patriots team beat Peyton Manning? The Pats and Tom Brady have traditionally ruled over Peyton, but the Broncos are different than the Colts when Peyton was there, and these Pats are not the same team that frustrated Manning. The Pats might pull off the upset, but I have to go with Denver. BRONCOS, 30-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: Both teams are suffering from offensive problems, so the key to this game is the strength of the respective defenses. Washington's defense is pretty porous, while the 49ers defense is their best squad, and it's one of the stiffest in the NFC. End of comparison. 49ERS, 28-20
Sunday, November 17, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 13 picks
We're in the home stretch, and several conference and division titles could be clinched. This is the time of year for upsets, although we had few last week. Maryland beat Virginia Tech to basically demolish their chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game. USC knocked Stanford out of the Top Five and possibly cost them the Pac-12 North title. Nevada skunked San Jose State. I was surprised by Bowling Green's massive shutout of Ohio and UTEP's demolition of Florida International. Let's see if this week can provide some surprises.
Tues Nov 19
Buffalo Bulls at Miami Ohio Redhawks: Buffalo needs this game to stay in the title hunt. Fortunately, the Redhawks haven't won a MAC game all season. BUFFALO by 16
Wed Nov 20
#18 Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets: The Huskies need this victory, not just to remain unbeaten but to clinch the MAC West. Toledo can be tough, though. This game won't be an easy victory for either team, and I label this one an "upset alert". NORTHERN ILLINOIS by six
Thurs Nov 21
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #20 UCF Golden Knights: Their near loss to Temple probably woke up the Golden Knights, who were starting to take their conference title for granted. With Cincy breathing down their necks, UCF needs to win out, so they have to win this battle of Knights. I think they will. UCF by 16
Rice Owls at UAB Blazers: Rice continues their march to a division title by pulverizing struggling UAB. RICE by 18
Fri Nov 22
Navy Midshipmen at San Jose State Spartans: San Jose State should win this one, but Navy can be tricky, and San Jose State already lost one they should have won. SAN JOSE STATE by eight
Top 25
Chattanooga Mocs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: This begins a string of SEC games against FCS opponents. Strange time of the year for them. ALABAMA by 30+
Idaho Vandals at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Not to be outdone, the Seminoles schedule a non-conference patsy. FLORIDA STATE by 34+
#3 Baylor Bears at #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Now THIS is my kind of mid-November matchup! The winner gains the edge in the Big XII title race and Baylor wants a shot at the National title. This type of high-stakes game is unusual for Baylor, but they have great talent. Their defense sucks, though, which gives the Cowboys a slight edge. If Oklahoma State can slow Baylor just enough, and the home crowd disturb the play-calling enough, the Cowboys could pull off the upset. BAYLOR by six
Indiana Hoosiers at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes clinch the division with a strong victory here. OHIO STATE by 30
Memphis Tigers at #5 Louisville Cardinals: The Cards and Teddy Bridgewater continue to chase UCF for the first American Athletic Conference title. Memphis won't be an obstacle. LOUISVILLE by 24
#6 Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss can be tough, but Missouri wants that division title and a shot at Alabama. MISSOURI by 17
#7 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats: Arizona can surprise, but I see Oregon taking advantage of Stanford's loss to USC. They won't lose the division now. OREGON by 24
Cal Golden Bears at #8 Stanford Cardinal: Stanford won't lose this one, but their title hopes are dwindling. STANFORD by 18
The Citadel Bulldogs at #9 Clemson Tigers: Do I really need to say anything about this game? CLEMSON by lots
#10 Texas A&M Aggies at #16 LSU Tigers: Both teams had byes leading into this game, so no advantage there. LSU's offense is good, but it's not as good as A&M's. The advantage is the Tigers defense, since A&M basically doesn't have one. Can LSU slow down the Aggies' offense? The key will be rushing the quarterback. Johnny Manziel has played hurt in games this season, but if he takes enough hits, his mobility is reduced. If LSU can do that, they can win. Otherwise, I have to favor the Aggies. TEXAS A&M by six
#11 Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers This game may ultimately mean nothing to either team in terms of division titles, as both Ohio State and Michigan State clinch their respective titles with victories. Still, Wisconsin is playing for a shot at a prestigious bowl game, and that ground attack can exhaust defenses. WISCONSIN by eleven
#13 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats tried to win their first conference game last week, taking Michigan into three overtimes before faltering. The Spartans defense won't allow it to go that far this game. MICHIGAN STATE by twelve
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks get to smear another poultry-based mascot into bird seed. SOUTH CAROLINA by lots
New Mexico Lobos at #21 Fresno State Bulldogs: Let's see, one-win New Mexico against unbeaten Fresno State. This is almost like the SEC games this week. FRESNO STATE by 33
#22 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats: Despite a 6-4 record (including a loss to FCS South Dakota State), the Wildcats can still be a nuisance to Big XII teams. I like Oklahoma to win, but it won't be easy. OKLAHOMA by nine
#23 East Carolina Pirates at NC State Wolfpack: Time for the Pirates to show what they can do! Granted, NC State isn't an ACC powerhouse this season, but they are tough enough non-conference opposition to prove the Pirates' worth. EAST CAROLINA by 17
#24 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes: This should be an easy game for the Trojans, setting up for a battle with UCLA. USC by 27
Cincinnati Bearcats at #25 Houston Cougars: Cincy came alive last week, after weeks of decent, but not outstanding, play. The Bearcats need this victory to contend with UCF for the conference title, since they don't play the Knights. For Houston, a loss here takes them completely out of the conference picture. This will be a hard-fought game. Houston has been more impressive during the season, but this game could go either way. HOUSTON by four
Big Ten
For the first time in many weeks we have a full slate of Big Ten games. Three featured ranked teams. Here are the rest:
Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa had a bye to prepare for this game, while Michigan was shocked by Northwestern's defense. I think Michigan will bounce back, but watch out for Iowa. MICHIGAN by six
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: The curse of the Big Ten play may be lifted for the Illini this week! Purdue is, by far, the worst team in the conference. Illini's offense scored 35 points against a tough Buckeyes defense. Illinois' defense stinks, but so does Purdue's offense. ILLINOIS by 20
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions: This should be an interesting game. Neither team is playing for a division title, and Penn State is not playing for a decent bowl game. For both teams, it's a matter of pride. For Nebraska, their players may be playing for Coach Pelini's job, and that could be the extra motivation needed. NEBRASKA by four
Other Games of Interest
Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Duke takes one step closer to facing off against Florida State if they can exorcise the Demon Deacons. DUKE by 18
Bowling Green Falcons at Eastern Michigan Eagles: Bowling Green wants to remain even with Buffalo for the division title, so they will come at Eastern Michigan with everything they have, which is much more than teh Eagles have. BOWLING GREEN by 24
BYU Cougars at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I love these intense rivalry games, as records go out the window. BYU should win this game, but the Irish can be unpredictable. I think BYU will lead, and they will have to hold off a late Irish charge. BYU by four
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The shine is off the Golden Panthers this season, and Marshall is chasing East Carolina for a chance at the division title. MARSHALL by 27
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs: Two 5-1 Mountain West teams, both battling for their respective division titles, go after each other in a game that should be a massive slugfest (although I hope no ACTUAL slugfests occur). Boise State has the edge in talent, but San Diego State can be tricky, and their defense has punch. This game may be decided by whomever has the ball late in the fourth, and how well they control the clock. BOISE STATE by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #17 Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 UCLA Bruins: Two strong teams play with a division title on the line. The Sun Devils can clinch the Pac-12 South with a win, but UCLA won't make that easy. Both teams have strong offenses, with the Sun Devils perhaps a bit better. UCLA's defense can be intrusive, though, and don't discount what the Pasadena home crowd can do. If UCLA holds the ball late, they can control the clock and win. If the Sun Devils have at least 90 seconds for a shot to win, this game could go the other way. UCLA by three
Tues Nov 19
Buffalo Bulls at Miami Ohio Redhawks: Buffalo needs this game to stay in the title hunt. Fortunately, the Redhawks haven't won a MAC game all season. BUFFALO by 16
Wed Nov 20
#18 Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets: The Huskies need this victory, not just to remain unbeaten but to clinch the MAC West. Toledo can be tough, though. This game won't be an easy victory for either team, and I label this one an "upset alert". NORTHERN ILLINOIS by six
Thurs Nov 21
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #20 UCF Golden Knights: Their near loss to Temple probably woke up the Golden Knights, who were starting to take their conference title for granted. With Cincy breathing down their necks, UCF needs to win out, so they have to win this battle of Knights. I think they will. UCF by 16
Rice Owls at UAB Blazers: Rice continues their march to a division title by pulverizing struggling UAB. RICE by 18
Fri Nov 22
Navy Midshipmen at San Jose State Spartans: San Jose State should win this one, but Navy can be tricky, and San Jose State already lost one they should have won. SAN JOSE STATE by eight
Top 25
Chattanooga Mocs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: This begins a string of SEC games against FCS opponents. Strange time of the year for them. ALABAMA by 30+
Idaho Vandals at #2 Florida State Seminoles: Not to be outdone, the Seminoles schedule a non-conference patsy. FLORIDA STATE by 34+
#3 Baylor Bears at #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Now THIS is my kind of mid-November matchup! The winner gains the edge in the Big XII title race and Baylor wants a shot at the National title. This type of high-stakes game is unusual for Baylor, but they have great talent. Their defense sucks, though, which gives the Cowboys a slight edge. If Oklahoma State can slow Baylor just enough, and the home crowd disturb the play-calling enough, the Cowboys could pull off the upset. BAYLOR by six
Indiana Hoosiers at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes clinch the division with a strong victory here. OHIO STATE by 30
Memphis Tigers at #5 Louisville Cardinals: The Cards and Teddy Bridgewater continue to chase UCF for the first American Athletic Conference title. Memphis won't be an obstacle. LOUISVILLE by 24
#6 Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss can be tough, but Missouri wants that division title and a shot at Alabama. MISSOURI by 17
#7 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats: Arizona can surprise, but I see Oregon taking advantage of Stanford's loss to USC. They won't lose the division now. OREGON by 24
Cal Golden Bears at #8 Stanford Cardinal: Stanford won't lose this one, but their title hopes are dwindling. STANFORD by 18
The Citadel Bulldogs at #9 Clemson Tigers: Do I really need to say anything about this game? CLEMSON by lots
#10 Texas A&M Aggies at #16 LSU Tigers: Both teams had byes leading into this game, so no advantage there. LSU's offense is good, but it's not as good as A&M's. The advantage is the Tigers defense, since A&M basically doesn't have one. Can LSU slow down the Aggies' offense? The key will be rushing the quarterback. Johnny Manziel has played hurt in games this season, but if he takes enough hits, his mobility is reduced. If LSU can do that, they can win. Otherwise, I have to favor the Aggies. TEXAS A&M by six
#11 Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers This game may ultimately mean nothing to either team in terms of division titles, as both Ohio State and Michigan State clinch their respective titles with victories. Still, Wisconsin is playing for a shot at a prestigious bowl game, and that ground attack can exhaust defenses. WISCONSIN by eleven
#13 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats tried to win their first conference game last week, taking Michigan into three overtimes before faltering. The Spartans defense won't allow it to go that far this game. MICHIGAN STATE by twelve
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at #19 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks get to smear another poultry-based mascot into bird seed. SOUTH CAROLINA by lots
New Mexico Lobos at #21 Fresno State Bulldogs: Let's see, one-win New Mexico against unbeaten Fresno State. This is almost like the SEC games this week. FRESNO STATE by 33
#22 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats: Despite a 6-4 record (including a loss to FCS South Dakota State), the Wildcats can still be a nuisance to Big XII teams. I like Oklahoma to win, but it won't be easy. OKLAHOMA by nine
#23 East Carolina Pirates at NC State Wolfpack: Time for the Pirates to show what they can do! Granted, NC State isn't an ACC powerhouse this season, but they are tough enough non-conference opposition to prove the Pirates' worth. EAST CAROLINA by 17
#24 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes: This should be an easy game for the Trojans, setting up for a battle with UCLA. USC by 27
Cincinnati Bearcats at #25 Houston Cougars: Cincy came alive last week, after weeks of decent, but not outstanding, play. The Bearcats need this victory to contend with UCF for the conference title, since they don't play the Knights. For Houston, a loss here takes them completely out of the conference picture. This will be a hard-fought game. Houston has been more impressive during the season, but this game could go either way. HOUSTON by four
Big Ten
For the first time in many weeks we have a full slate of Big Ten games. Three featured ranked teams. Here are the rest:
Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa had a bye to prepare for this game, while Michigan was shocked by Northwestern's defense. I think Michigan will bounce back, but watch out for Iowa. MICHIGAN by six
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: The curse of the Big Ten play may be lifted for the Illini this week! Purdue is, by far, the worst team in the conference. Illini's offense scored 35 points against a tough Buckeyes defense. Illinois' defense stinks, but so does Purdue's offense. ILLINOIS by 20
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions: This should be an interesting game. Neither team is playing for a division title, and Penn State is not playing for a decent bowl game. For both teams, it's a matter of pride. For Nebraska, their players may be playing for Coach Pelini's job, and that could be the extra motivation needed. NEBRASKA by four
Other Games of Interest
Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Duke takes one step closer to facing off against Florida State if they can exorcise the Demon Deacons. DUKE by 18
Bowling Green Falcons at Eastern Michigan Eagles: Bowling Green wants to remain even with Buffalo for the division title, so they will come at Eastern Michigan with everything they have, which is much more than teh Eagles have. BOWLING GREEN by 24
BYU Cougars at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I love these intense rivalry games, as records go out the window. BYU should win this game, but the Irish can be unpredictable. I think BYU will lead, and they will have to hold off a late Irish charge. BYU by four
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: The shine is off the Golden Panthers this season, and Marshall is chasing East Carolina for a chance at the division title. MARSHALL by 27
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs: Two 5-1 Mountain West teams, both battling for their respective division titles, go after each other in a game that should be a massive slugfest (although I hope no ACTUAL slugfests occur). Boise State has the edge in talent, but San Diego State can be tricky, and their defense has punch. This game may be decided by whomever has the ball late in the fourth, and how well they control the clock. BOISE STATE by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #17 Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 UCLA Bruins: Two strong teams play with a division title on the line. The Sun Devils can clinch the Pac-12 South with a win, but UCLA won't make that easy. Both teams have strong offenses, with the Sun Devils perhaps a bit better. UCLA's defense can be intrusive, though, and don't discount what the Pasadena home crowd can do. If UCLA holds the ball late, they can control the clock and win. If the Sun Devils have at least 90 seconds for a shot to win, this game could go the other way. UCLA by three
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 12
No unbeatens fell, but Stanford lost. They were the only upset in the Top 25, so things didn't change too much this week.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1] : Offense didn't do much, but defense ruled the day as the Tide maintain their top spot.
2. Florida State Seminoles (10-0) [2] : Another crushing victory leaves no doubt that the Seminoles are Number Two, no matter how well Baylor plays.
3. Baylor Bears (9-0) [3] : Beat Texas Tech by enough to secure the third spot, unless they lose.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) [4] : Stanford's loss pretty much guarantees the Buckeyes of this position unless Michigan pulls off an upset.
5. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [6] : Not an impressive win, but they took advantage of Missouri's bye
6. Missouri Tigers (9-1) [7]
7. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [8] : They smeared the turf with Utah, propelling them up a spot.
8. Stanford Cardinal (8-2) [5] : They succeeded in catching up to USC, but couldn't score in the fourth quarter to seal the win.
9. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [9] : Georgia Tech scored quite a few points, but Clemson pounded the Yellow Jacket defense.
10. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [10]
11. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) [11] : Blowout victory and fine defensive performance (something the Aggies have lacked) is bridging the gap between them and the Top Ten.
12. Auburn Tigers (10-1) [12] : Way closer than the game should have been.
13. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [12] : If Sparty had prevented that final Nebraska touchdown they might have moved past Auburn.
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1) [16] : The Cowboys handed Texas their first Big XII loss and continue their climb up the Top 25
15. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [15] : They had the better offense Friday night, but defense was scarse
16. LSU Tigers (7-3) [14]
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) [17] : The Sun Devils beat Oregon State in style; one of their better wins of the season.
18. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-0) [20] : The Huskies continue their unbeaten season and gained essentially a two-game lead for the MAC division title.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) [18] : Tough victory the Gators. Florida didn't want another loss to risk ending their bowl streak.
20. UCF Golden Knights (8-1) [19] : The Knights find themselves in sole possession of first place in the new American Athletic Conference, but Temple nearly upset that. Not an impressive game, especially defensively.
21. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-0) [21]
22. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [23] : Strong victory keeps the Sooners mathematically eligible for the Big XII title.
23. East Carolina Pirates (8-2) [24] : The Pirates smash UAB to remain atop the division
24. USC Trojans (8-3) [NR] : They beat Stanford to escalate back into the Top 25
25. Houston Cougars (7-3) [25] : A tight game against Northern Illinois keeps them in the Top 25
Dropped off: Ball State Cardinals [#22]
On the Edge: Bowling Green Falcons (7-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3), Duke Blue Devils (8-2), Boise State Broncos (7-3), Michigan Wolverines (7-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-2), BYU Cougars (7-3)
American Athletic: Houston's loss hurts their chances greatly. They'd need lots of help to win the title. UCF holds the lead and tiebreaker advantage over Louisville. Cincy has a shot. They don't play UCF, so they need TWO teams to beat the Knights. That doesn't look likely.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Duke is in the driver's seat. If they win out against Wake Forest and North Carolina, they win. Georgia Tech holds the tiebreaker, so a Duke loss and the Yellow Jackets winning out gives them a chance, especially since they beat North Carolina earlier (the Tar Heels are more likely to beat Duke than Wake is).
Big XII: Baylor leads and controls their own destiny, but they still need to play both of the teams trailing them by a game: Oklahoma State and Texas. A loss to either one gives the other an advantage. The Cowboys beat Texas this week, so Oklahoma State can practically wrap it up by beating Baylor this week, although the Sooners still await them.
Big Ten Leaders: Ohio State clinches with a win over Indiana this week.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan State clinches with a win over Northwestern OR a win against Minnesota
Conference USA East: This one will be decided by the East Carolina - Marshall matchup on Nov 29th
Conference USA West: Since North Texas holds the tiebreaker over Rice, the Mean Green clinch if they win out. Their tougher opponent is UTSA this week, as they close against lowly Tulsa. If UTSA upsets them, Rice has a chance, but the Owls still have to face tough Tulane.
MAC East: Buffalo's loss makes it interesting. Bowling Green and Buffalo are tied and face each other to conclude the regular season on Nov 29th. The Falcons play lowly Eastern Michigan before then, so they have the easier schedule.
MAC West: Northern Illinois holds the lead and the tiebreaker over Ball State. If the Huskies beat Toledo, they clinch the title.
Mountain West Mountain: The Broncos win the title if they win out. Utah State is hoping San Diego State beats Boise State, but the Aggies would still need to win out to clinch.
Mountain West West: Fresno State clinches with a win over lowly New Mexico
Pac-12 North: Stanford's loss puts Oregon back on top. The Ducks need to win out. That won't be easy, as they travel to Arizona and then host state rival Oregon State. Stanford has it easier, as their last conference game is against Cal. They need someone to beat Oregon, though.
Pac-12 South: Arizona State clinches it with a victory this week over UCLA. A Bruins win means the game against USC determines if UCLA wins the division or a three-way tie develops.
SEC East: Missouri needs to win out, but that means getting past the Aggies in two weeks. If Texas A&M wins, South Carolina wins the division.
SEC West: The Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama will determine this division winner
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette can clinch with a win this week
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1] : Offense didn't do much, but defense ruled the day as the Tide maintain their top spot.
2. Florida State Seminoles (10-0) [2] : Another crushing victory leaves no doubt that the Seminoles are Number Two, no matter how well Baylor plays.
3. Baylor Bears (9-0) [3] : Beat Texas Tech by enough to secure the third spot, unless they lose.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) [4] : Stanford's loss pretty much guarantees the Buckeyes of this position unless Michigan pulls off an upset.
5. Louisville Cardinals (9-1) [6] : Not an impressive win, but they took advantage of Missouri's bye
6. Missouri Tigers (9-1) [7]
7. Oregon Ducks (9-1) [8] : They smeared the turf with Utah, propelling them up a spot.
8. Stanford Cardinal (8-2) [5] : They succeeded in catching up to USC, but couldn't score in the fourth quarter to seal the win.
9. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [9] : Georgia Tech scored quite a few points, but Clemson pounded the Yellow Jacket defense.
10. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [10]
11. Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) [11] : Blowout victory and fine defensive performance (something the Aggies have lacked) is bridging the gap between them and the Top Ten.
12. Auburn Tigers (10-1) [12] : Way closer than the game should have been.
13. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [12] : If Sparty had prevented that final Nebraska touchdown they might have moved past Auburn.
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1) [16] : The Cowboys handed Texas their first Big XII loss and continue their climb up the Top 25
15. UCLA Bruins (8-2) [15] : They had the better offense Friday night, but defense was scarse
16. LSU Tigers (7-3) [14]
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2) [17] : The Sun Devils beat Oregon State in style; one of their better wins of the season.
18. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-0) [20] : The Huskies continue their unbeaten season and gained essentially a two-game lead for the MAC division title.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-2) [18] : Tough victory the Gators. Florida didn't want another loss to risk ending their bowl streak.
20. UCF Golden Knights (8-1) [19] : The Knights find themselves in sole possession of first place in the new American Athletic Conference, but Temple nearly upset that. Not an impressive game, especially defensively.
21. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-0) [21]
22. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [23] : Strong victory keeps the Sooners mathematically eligible for the Big XII title.
23. East Carolina Pirates (8-2) [24] : The Pirates smash UAB to remain atop the division
24. USC Trojans (8-3) [NR] : They beat Stanford to escalate back into the Top 25
25. Houston Cougars (7-3) [25] : A tight game against Northern Illinois keeps them in the Top 25
Dropped off: Ball State Cardinals [#22]
On the Edge: Bowling Green Falcons (7-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3), Duke Blue Devils (8-2), Boise State Broncos (7-3), Michigan Wolverines (7-3), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-2), BYU Cougars (7-3)
American Athletic: Houston's loss hurts their chances greatly. They'd need lots of help to win the title. UCF holds the lead and tiebreaker advantage over Louisville. Cincy has a shot. They don't play UCF, so they need TWO teams to beat the Knights. That doesn't look likely.
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
ACC Coastal: Duke is in the driver's seat. If they win out against Wake Forest and North Carolina, they win. Georgia Tech holds the tiebreaker, so a Duke loss and the Yellow Jackets winning out gives them a chance, especially since they beat North Carolina earlier (the Tar Heels are more likely to beat Duke than Wake is).
Big XII: Baylor leads and controls their own destiny, but they still need to play both of the teams trailing them by a game: Oklahoma State and Texas. A loss to either one gives the other an advantage. The Cowboys beat Texas this week, so Oklahoma State can practically wrap it up by beating Baylor this week, although the Sooners still await them.
Big Ten Leaders: Ohio State clinches with a win over Indiana this week.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan State clinches with a win over Northwestern OR a win against Minnesota
Conference USA East: This one will be decided by the East Carolina - Marshall matchup on Nov 29th
Conference USA West: Since North Texas holds the tiebreaker over Rice, the Mean Green clinch if they win out. Their tougher opponent is UTSA this week, as they close against lowly Tulsa. If UTSA upsets them, Rice has a chance, but the Owls still have to face tough Tulane.
MAC East: Buffalo's loss makes it interesting. Bowling Green and Buffalo are tied and face each other to conclude the regular season on Nov 29th. The Falcons play lowly Eastern Michigan before then, so they have the easier schedule.
MAC West: Northern Illinois holds the lead and the tiebreaker over Ball State. If the Huskies beat Toledo, they clinch the title.
Mountain West Mountain: The Broncos win the title if they win out. Utah State is hoping San Diego State beats Boise State, but the Aggies would still need to win out to clinch.
Mountain West West: Fresno State clinches with a win over lowly New Mexico
Pac-12 North: Stanford's loss puts Oregon back on top. The Ducks need to win out. That won't be easy, as they travel to Arizona and then host state rival Oregon State. Stanford has it easier, as their last conference game is against Cal. They need someone to beat Oregon, though.
Pac-12 South: Arizona State clinches it with a victory this week over UCLA. A Bruins win means the game against USC determines if UCLA wins the division or a three-way tie develops.
SEC East: Missouri needs to win out, but that means getting past the Aggies in two weeks. If Texas A&M wins, South Carolina wins the division.
SEC West: The Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama will determine this division winner
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette can clinch with a win this week
Thursday, November 14, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 11 Power Rankings and picks
Both winless teams won this week. Kansas City escaped the elimination of a zero in any column by having a bye, but they may tumble this week. I suffered my second losing week of the season, so I'm looking to bounce back.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (8-1) [1] : The Broncos continue to dominate, although San Diego held them to fewer points than normal.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) [2]
3. Seattle Seahawks (9-1) [3] : Strong win over the hapless Falcons
4. New Orleans Saints (7-2) [5] : The defense shined as Rob Ryan had his revenge on his old team. The offense was on fire, too. When both squads are working, this team is unbeatable. If Seattle has another questionnnable game (as they've had a couple this season), the Saints could become the top team in the NFC.
5. Carolina Panthers (6-3) [7] : The Panthers beat the 49ers in an intense defensive game. Now the Panthers have the edge on the fifth playoff spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-3) [6] : The 49ers were on the losing end of a defensive battle, but it was only a one-point loss. Still, they need to turn things around this week, since they face New Orleans.
7. New England Patriots (7-2) [8] : Benefitted from a bye
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [4] : What a pathetic performance from the Colts against the Rams! They still lead the AFC South, but questions are now being raised about the Colts.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) [10] : A team loses and rises a spot? First of all, it was a tight game against the defending Super Bowl Champ, and it also indicates what happened to teams in the bottom half of the Top Ten last week.
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [12] : For the fourth time all season, the top three teams in the NFC Central are right next to each other in the rankings (Green Bay at #11 and Chicago at #12, although Green Bay is likely to fall)
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : With the top two teams in the league and San Diego and Oakland still dangerous, this division is tops.
2. NFC West [2] : This division has three teams with winning records, the fourth place team with the best record, and the best average record of all divisions in the league. They are the best division in the NFC by a sizeable margin.
3. NFC North [3] : The only other division with three teams with winning records, each team has issues, either due to injury or consistency or instability at quarterback. How long will they remain at this position?
4. NFC South [4] : Tampa Bay won their first game, and might surpass struggling Atlanta. This division has the greatest rift between the top two teams and the bottom two teams.
5. AFC North [6] : Baltimore and Pittsburgh both win, the Bengals barely lose, and the Browns had a bye. Good week for this division.
6. AFC East [5] : On the flip side, Miami is the first team to lose to the Bucs and Buffalo gets wiped out. New England and the Jets should be pleased that they had a bye week.
7. NFC East [8] : This division finally pulls themselves out of the cellar, at least for a week. Philly wins big, and the Giants surpass the Raiders. Dallas suffered their worst loss in decades, and the division doesn't have a winning team, so how could they move up a position?
8. AFC South [7] : The answer lies with this division. The Jags finally win, but the Colts suffer a horrible loss. Tennessee and Houston also lose, both in miserable fashion. While the teams in the AFC North may knock each other around, the Colts are now looking like a Fourth Seed team.
Thursday night
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Two teams from the worst division in the league face off. The Colts certainly have the better team, and they need to bounce back from the atrocious loss to the Rams, so I'll give them the edge, but I'm not sure if either team will impress. COLTS, 26-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cardinals are actually playing well. The Jags may have won their first game last week, but they won't stretch it to two weeks. CARDINALS, 27-17
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs were the last winless team (since they didn't play until Monday Night), but they are much better than Jacksonville. In fact, I think they are better than the struggling Falcons. I pick the upset here for the Bucs to drop Atlanta to the cellar of the NFC South. BUCS, 23-20
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: Oh, this is a tough game to call. The Ravens have been horribly inconsistent this season, but the Bears pass defense is atrocious. Cutler will sit out this game, so a healthy Josh McCown will be able to move the offense against the Ravens. The difference might be a turnover that leads to a score. With McCown in, that turnover is more likely to be caused by the Bears. BEARS, 27-23
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns had a bye, but the Bengals are the better team. They nearly won the overtime thriller last week, so I have to give them the edge here. BENGALS, 2317
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsbuergh is looking better, especially defensively, but the Lions offense can be hard to stop. Do I think Johnson will another record-setting game? No. Do I think the Lions offense will win this game? Yes. LIONS, 27-23
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Despite the Jets' winning record, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Both teams have injury problems, especially on offense, and the Jets record doesn't truly reflect the ability of the team to collapse. I think it is more significant that the Jets have a NEGATIVE point differential by over 60! This game will come down to who plays the cleaner game, and the Jets have a tendency to be penalized. BILLS, 26-24
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: Houston is looking terrible. Their offense is struggling mightily, and their defense isn't going great, either. Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor can't seem to string two good games together, but since he had a tough week last week, that means he should have a better game this week. RAIDERS, 23-20
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Neither team's defense is playing well, The Eagles offense hasn't been consistently powerful, but they are establishing a rhythm again. EAGLES, 30-23
Sunday late games
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: As shown last week, Seneca Wallace cannot lead this team with the banged-up receiving corps they have. The Giants defensive line is good, so this game will come down to Wallace versus the porous Giants secondary. Given his performance last week, I have to favor the Giants. GIANTS, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle has struggled against strong defenses lately, but the Vikings don't have that. SEAHAWKS, 27-14
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: Miami needs to bounce back from Monday's loss, but I think the Chargers are motivated. They led the Broncos before allowing a signature Manning comeback; I don't think Tannehill can engineer a similar comeback. CHARGERS, 24-20
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: The 49ers struggled against the Panthers, and now they face the team one game ahead of the Panthers in their division. The Saints have a hot offense and a strong defense, a combination that has hampered San Francisco throughout this season. I don't think they'll survive this one. SAINTS, 26-23
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: This game has all the drama. Peyton Manning has a hurt ankle, with further limits his already limited mobility. With the stingy Chiefs defense and fast pass rush, that makes things hard for the Broncos. A Chiefs win continues their unbeaten season and would extend their lead over the Broncos to two games. However, Peyton finds ways to win, and I think they will produce a game-winning late fourth quarter drive. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: The Patriots have found ways to win this year, even with their patchwork offense. If this game had been played earlier in the season, I would have picked New England in a heartbeat. However, the Panthers are gaining strength, and now they are chasing the Saints for a division title and a likely first round bye. That motivation, and their stingy defense, gives the edge to Carolina. PANTHERS, 26-23
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (8-1) [1] : The Broncos continue to dominate, although San Diego held them to fewer points than normal.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) [2]
3. Seattle Seahawks (9-1) [3] : Strong win over the hapless Falcons
4. New Orleans Saints (7-2) [5] : The defense shined as Rob Ryan had his revenge on his old team. The offense was on fire, too. When both squads are working, this team is unbeatable. If Seattle has another questionnnable game (as they've had a couple this season), the Saints could become the top team in the NFC.
5. Carolina Panthers (6-3) [7] : The Panthers beat the 49ers in an intense defensive game. Now the Panthers have the edge on the fifth playoff spot.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-3) [6] : The 49ers were on the losing end of a defensive battle, but it was only a one-point loss. Still, they need to turn things around this week, since they face New Orleans.
7. New England Patriots (7-2) [8] : Benefitted from a bye
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [4] : What a pathetic performance from the Colts against the Rams! They still lead the AFC South, but questions are now being raised about the Colts.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) [10] : A team loses and rises a spot? First of all, it was a tight game against the defending Super Bowl Champ, and it also indicates what happened to teams in the bottom half of the Top Ten last week.
10. Detroit Lions (6-4) [12] : For the fourth time all season, the top three teams in the NFC Central are right next to each other in the rankings (Green Bay at #11 and Chicago at #12, although Green Bay is likely to fall)
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : With the top two teams in the league and San Diego and Oakland still dangerous, this division is tops.
2. NFC West [2] : This division has three teams with winning records, the fourth place team with the best record, and the best average record of all divisions in the league. They are the best division in the NFC by a sizeable margin.
3. NFC North [3] : The only other division with three teams with winning records, each team has issues, either due to injury or consistency or instability at quarterback. How long will they remain at this position?
4. NFC South [4] : Tampa Bay won their first game, and might surpass struggling Atlanta. This division has the greatest rift between the top two teams and the bottom two teams.
5. AFC North [6] : Baltimore and Pittsburgh both win, the Bengals barely lose, and the Browns had a bye. Good week for this division.
6. AFC East [5] : On the flip side, Miami is the first team to lose to the Bucs and Buffalo gets wiped out. New England and the Jets should be pleased that they had a bye week.
7. NFC East [8] : This division finally pulls themselves out of the cellar, at least for a week. Philly wins big, and the Giants surpass the Raiders. Dallas suffered their worst loss in decades, and the division doesn't have a winning team, so how could they move up a position?
8. AFC South [7] : The answer lies with this division. The Jags finally win, but the Colts suffer a horrible loss. Tennessee and Houston also lose, both in miserable fashion. While the teams in the AFC North may knock each other around, the Colts are now looking like a Fourth Seed team.
Thursday night
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Two teams from the worst division in the league face off. The Colts certainly have the better team, and they need to bounce back from the atrocious loss to the Rams, so I'll give them the edge, but I'm not sure if either team will impress. COLTS, 26-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Cardinals are actually playing well. The Jags may have won their first game last week, but they won't stretch it to two weeks. CARDINALS, 27-17
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs were the last winless team (since they didn't play until Monday Night), but they are much better than Jacksonville. In fact, I think they are better than the struggling Falcons. I pick the upset here for the Bucs to drop Atlanta to the cellar of the NFC South. BUCS, 23-20
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: Oh, this is a tough game to call. The Ravens have been horribly inconsistent this season, but the Bears pass defense is atrocious. Cutler will sit out this game, so a healthy Josh McCown will be able to move the offense against the Ravens. The difference might be a turnover that leads to a score. With McCown in, that turnover is more likely to be caused by the Bears. BEARS, 27-23
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns had a bye, but the Bengals are the better team. They nearly won the overtime thriller last week, so I have to give them the edge here. BENGALS, 2317
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsbuergh is looking better, especially defensively, but the Lions offense can be hard to stop. Do I think Johnson will another record-setting game? No. Do I think the Lions offense will win this game? Yes. LIONS, 27-23
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Despite the Jets' winning record, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. Both teams have injury problems, especially on offense, and the Jets record doesn't truly reflect the ability of the team to collapse. I think it is more significant that the Jets have a NEGATIVE point differential by over 60! This game will come down to who plays the cleaner game, and the Jets have a tendency to be penalized. BILLS, 26-24
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans: Houston is looking terrible. Their offense is struggling mightily, and their defense isn't going great, either. Raiders QB Terrelle Pryor can't seem to string two good games together, but since he had a tough week last week, that means he should have a better game this week. RAIDERS, 23-20
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Neither team's defense is playing well, The Eagles offense hasn't been consistently powerful, but they are establishing a rhythm again. EAGLES, 30-23
Sunday late games
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: As shown last week, Seneca Wallace cannot lead this team with the banged-up receiving corps they have. The Giants defensive line is good, so this game will come down to Wallace versus the porous Giants secondary. Given his performance last week, I have to favor the Giants. GIANTS, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle has struggled against strong defenses lately, but the Vikings don't have that. SEAHAWKS, 27-14
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: Miami needs to bounce back from Monday's loss, but I think the Chargers are motivated. They led the Broncos before allowing a signature Manning comeback; I don't think Tannehill can engineer a similar comeback. CHARGERS, 24-20
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: The 49ers struggled against the Panthers, and now they face the team one game ahead of the Panthers in their division. The Saints have a hot offense and a strong defense, a combination that has hampered San Francisco throughout this season. I don't think they'll survive this one. SAINTS, 26-23
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: This game has all the drama. Peyton Manning has a hurt ankle, with further limits his already limited mobility. With the stingy Chiefs defense and fast pass rush, that makes things hard for the Broncos. A Chiefs win continues their unbeaten season and would extend their lead over the Broncos to two games. However, Peyton finds ways to win, and I think they will produce a game-winning late fourth quarter drive. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers: The Patriots have found ways to win this year, even with their patchwork offense. If this game had been played earlier in the season, I would have picked New England in a heartbeat. However, the Panthers are gaining strength, and now they are chasing the Saints for a division title and a likely first round bye. That motivation, and their stingy defense, gives the edge to Carolina. PANTHERS, 26-23
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 12 picks
After a week of few upsets and surprise results, we had plenty last week. Very few affected the Top 25, but one surprise hit the top. We expected LSU and Alabama to be a high-scoring close affair. It was only high-scoring for one team, and it wasn't close at all. While LSU kept it close in the first half, Alabama ran away with it in the second half, winning by 21 points.
Another surprise also was due to the dominance of one team against another, as Baylor blew away Oklahoma. Unlike the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma's only other major loss, the Sooners never had a chance in this game. Many analysts were saying how this was Baylor's first major challenge, and they tackled it well. Baylor is featured in this week's Game of the Week, as they face their second major challenge of the season.
Two other surprise were close games that really shouldn't have been. Mississippi State rang up 41 points against Texas A&M, in a game where they intercepted Johnny Manziel three times. It's obvious why the Aggies have to score so many points -- their defense sucks. Utah shocked Stanford earlier this season, and they nearly had their second upset win over a ranked team as they played Arizona State to a close 20-19 victory. The Sun Devils had to come from behind late in the fourth quarter to pull this one out.
There were some interesting upsets, too. Virginia Tech knocked Miami out of the Top 25 with their second consecutive loss as they dominated the Hurricanes 42-24. Pitt proved their rivalry with Notre Dame is still fierce, as they beat the Irish 28-21. Kansas State clobbered Texas Tech 49-26, and Vanderbilt damaged Florida's chances of extending the nation's longest bowl streak by hammering them 34-17.
What upsets will we have this week? Who knows? I'm not picking many, and none that are featured in this post. I have identified games with that potential, though.
Tues Nov 12
Between Tues and Wed, the MAC will have completed a majority of their games before Saturday. Tonight's games have significant impact on the division races, too.
Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons: This is a crucial game for both teams. A loss knocks Ohio out of the divisional race. On the other hand, Bowling Green needs the win to keep pace with Buffalo. This will be a close and hard-fought game that could come down to who has the ball last. BOWLING GREEN by four
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets: Buffalo, however, faces the threat of Toledo, who are chasing Ball State and Northern Illinois in the West. A Rockets win ties them with the loser of the matchup between the division leaders, while Buffalo wants a win to remain ahead of Bowling Green. You know the Bulls are rooting for Ohio in the other game. I'll pick Buffalo here, but they need to keep their minds on their own game, not the other game. BUFFALO by eight
Wed Nov 13
#22 Ball State Cardinals at #20 Northern Illinois Huskies: And here's the third crucial MAC game of the week. It's interesting that all six team vying for division titles play before Saturday. Did the schedule makers know something we didn't? This game could decide the division winner, as a Ball State win would clinch it for them. Northern Illinois won't make it easy, and they had a bye to prepare for this game. I think that bye will help Northern Illinois, but the Cardinals will keep it very close. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by three
Thurs Nov 14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #9 Clemson Tigers: Another game with divisional title races on the line, just in another conference. This is Georgia Tech's last conference game. A win here is crucial, as a loss basically removes them from the divisional title race. Clemson is eager to stay one game back from Florida State. While an upset against the Seminoles isn't likely, since their only remaining conference opponent is Syracuse, the Tigers are hoping to impress enough to gain a New Years bowl. They should have the power to win, but Georgia Tech might hurt that "impress" part. CLEMSON by ten
Marshall Thundering Herd at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Marshall remains in their divisional race with an easy win over a struggling opponent. MARSHALL by 26
Fri Nov 15
Washington Huskies at #15 UCLA Bruins: This one has upset potential written all over it. UCLA had to hold off a late Arizona rally to seal their win last week, and Washington is peaking. The Huskies had their best game of the season last week, Yes, it was against weakling Colorado, but it'll inspire the players and generate some momentum. The Bruins cannot take Washington lightly, or they'll be staring down another late comeback; perhaps their own. UCLA by six
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs scored lots of points last week, but that was more due to A&M's defense than the Bulldogs offense. Alabama will prove that this week, as the same crushing defense that tormented Zach Mettengerger will be unleashed. ALABAMA by 24
Syracuse Orange at #2 Florida State Seminoles: It's the Seminoles last ACC game of the season until the Championship Game. Will they slack off? Not when they want to maintain the voters interest for their Number Two spot. They know Baylor plays more impressive opponents, so the Seminoles need to roll against their weaker opponents the next two weeks. Pity Syracuse, as they are one of those. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois will have to wait one more week to break their Big Ten drought. At least their last two opponents are Purdue and Northwestern, we are also yet to win a conference game this season. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans: In years past they was an exciting game. With Stanford's stingy defense and USC facing some injury concerns, it won't be close this year. STANFORD by 18
#25 Houston Cougars at #6 Louisville Cardinals: The Cardinals get to prove themselves in this game. The national press, who don't think much of Louisville because they are not a perennial power, have had little faith in them, hence their #22 BCS rankings. The numbers they are posting, a factor in my computerized system, boosts them. Houston is a strong team with a good defense. A strong performance here by Teddy Bridgewater and company should start rising Louisville to the Top Ten position they deserve. LOUISVILLE by 16
Utah Utes at #8 Oregon Ducks: The Utes have been a threat to ranked teams at home, but they are a much weaker opponent on the road. The Ducks get a strong win to help counter last week's disappointment. OREGON by 23
Indiana Hoosiers at #11 Wisconsin Badgers: Indiana may have scored nearly fifty points last week, but that was against Illinois' pathetic defense. This week things will be quite different. The Badgers have the most dangerous two-back offensive backfield that any team has ever faced, and they can pass the ball when needed. Indiana won't have solutions for all of the ways the offense can move. WISCONSIN by 14
Georgia Bulldogs at #12 Auburn Tigers: Georgia has had an up-and-down season. They have good games, and they have terrible games. Auburn proved their strength last week. Their defense isn't great, which gives Aaron Murray a chance to put up some numbers, but the Auburn offense is powerful, stronger than what Georgia can handle. AUBURN by nine
#13 Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska redeemed themselves last week, but now they face the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest in the country. That'll frustrate a Cornhuskers offense already suffering from injuries. MICHIGAN STATE by 12
#16 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns: No matter who wins, I'm not sure if it qualifies as an upset. Oklahoma State is ranked higher, and has a better overall record. However, Texas is unbeaten in Big XII play, and has been a tough opponent who finds ways to win. I'll pick the Cowboys, but this game could go either way. OKLAHOMA STATE by four
Oregon State Beavers at #17 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another game that could go either way, I'd probably pick the Beavers if the game was played in Corvallis. The Beavers are a different team on the road, and the Sun Devils near-loss last week may wake them up and force them to play tougher this week. ARIZONA STATE by eleven
Florida Gators at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks: A loss here nearly guarantees that Florida will fail to reach a bowl game (as a win against the Seminoles is EXTREMELY unlikely). Florida may try to win, but the Gamecocks defense will make that hard. The Gamecocks are great at causing turnovers, and Florida has suffered from them this season. SOUTH CAROLINA by 16
#19 UCF Golden Knights at Temple Owls: Let's see -- a team with an unbeaten conference record faces a team with a winless conference record. Somehow the outcome doesn't seem in doubt. UCF by 27
Iowa State Cyclones at #23 Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners were shocked last week, but they won't be this week. The Cyclones play well for part of a game, but they haven't put together four consecutive good quarters. OKLAHOMA by 23
UAB Blazers at #24 East Carolina Pirates: A win here sets up East Carolina for the showdown with Marshall, where the winner captures the division title. UAB won't really be able to stop them. EAST CAROLINA by 20
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Purdue is the worst team in the conference, suffering two shutouts and many blowouts. While I'm not sure Penn State will blow them out, they will win. PENN STATE by 20
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has struggled in Big Ten games, and those struggles are likely to continue. Michigan's offense looked confused in their last game, which led to Nebraska's needed victory. I think they'll get that straightened out this week. MICHIGAN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats: The only Game of Interest this week, as our other On the Edge teams are playing ranked opponents. The chances of them losing gives Arizona the opportunity to improve their standing. They certainly have the talent and offense to do that. ARIZONA by 20
GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Baylor Bears: Baylor is in the middle of their most difficult three-game stretch. Winning out will put them in Florida State territory. Losing one will cost them ranking position, as Stanford would probably be the higher-ranked one-loss team. Thus, Baylor knows what is at stake -- they must keep winning. I think they'll do that here. Texas Tech has an offense nearly as potent as Baylor's, but their defense is weak. Baylor's defense is better, and that will be the difference. BAYLOR by nine
Another surprise also was due to the dominance of one team against another, as Baylor blew away Oklahoma. Unlike the Red River Rivalry, Oklahoma's only other major loss, the Sooners never had a chance in this game. Many analysts were saying how this was Baylor's first major challenge, and they tackled it well. Baylor is featured in this week's Game of the Week, as they face their second major challenge of the season.
Two other surprise were close games that really shouldn't have been. Mississippi State rang up 41 points against Texas A&M, in a game where they intercepted Johnny Manziel three times. It's obvious why the Aggies have to score so many points -- their defense sucks. Utah shocked Stanford earlier this season, and they nearly had their second upset win over a ranked team as they played Arizona State to a close 20-19 victory. The Sun Devils had to come from behind late in the fourth quarter to pull this one out.
There were some interesting upsets, too. Virginia Tech knocked Miami out of the Top 25 with their second consecutive loss as they dominated the Hurricanes 42-24. Pitt proved their rivalry with Notre Dame is still fierce, as they beat the Irish 28-21. Kansas State clobbered Texas Tech 49-26, and Vanderbilt damaged Florida's chances of extending the nation's longest bowl streak by hammering them 34-17.
What upsets will we have this week? Who knows? I'm not picking many, and none that are featured in this post. I have identified games with that potential, though.
Tues Nov 12
Between Tues and Wed, the MAC will have completed a majority of their games before Saturday. Tonight's games have significant impact on the division races, too.
Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons: This is a crucial game for both teams. A loss knocks Ohio out of the divisional race. On the other hand, Bowling Green needs the win to keep pace with Buffalo. This will be a close and hard-fought game that could come down to who has the ball last. BOWLING GREEN by four
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets: Buffalo, however, faces the threat of Toledo, who are chasing Ball State and Northern Illinois in the West. A Rockets win ties them with the loser of the matchup between the division leaders, while Buffalo wants a win to remain ahead of Bowling Green. You know the Bulls are rooting for Ohio in the other game. I'll pick Buffalo here, but they need to keep their minds on their own game, not the other game. BUFFALO by eight
Wed Nov 13
#22 Ball State Cardinals at #20 Northern Illinois Huskies: And here's the third crucial MAC game of the week. It's interesting that all six team vying for division titles play before Saturday. Did the schedule makers know something we didn't? This game could decide the division winner, as a Ball State win would clinch it for them. Northern Illinois won't make it easy, and they had a bye to prepare for this game. I think that bye will help Northern Illinois, but the Cardinals will keep it very close. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by three
Thurs Nov 14
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #9 Clemson Tigers: Another game with divisional title races on the line, just in another conference. This is Georgia Tech's last conference game. A win here is crucial, as a loss basically removes them from the divisional title race. Clemson is eager to stay one game back from Florida State. While an upset against the Seminoles isn't likely, since their only remaining conference opponent is Syracuse, the Tigers are hoping to impress enough to gain a New Years bowl. They should have the power to win, but Georgia Tech might hurt that "impress" part. CLEMSON by ten
Marshall Thundering Herd at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Marshall remains in their divisional race with an easy win over a struggling opponent. MARSHALL by 26
Fri Nov 15
Washington Huskies at #15 UCLA Bruins: This one has upset potential written all over it. UCLA had to hold off a late Arizona rally to seal their win last week, and Washington is peaking. The Huskies had their best game of the season last week, Yes, it was against weakling Colorado, but it'll inspire the players and generate some momentum. The Bruins cannot take Washington lightly, or they'll be staring down another late comeback; perhaps their own. UCLA by six
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs scored lots of points last week, but that was more due to A&M's defense than the Bulldogs offense. Alabama will prove that this week, as the same crushing defense that tormented Zach Mettengerger will be unleashed. ALABAMA by 24
Syracuse Orange at #2 Florida State Seminoles: It's the Seminoles last ACC game of the season until the Championship Game. Will they slack off? Not when they want to maintain the voters interest for their Number Two spot. They know Baylor plays more impressive opponents, so the Seminoles need to roll against their weaker opponents the next two weeks. Pity Syracuse, as they are one of those. FLORIDA STATE by 34
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois will have to wait one more week to break their Big Ten drought. At least their last two opponents are Purdue and Northwestern, we are also yet to win a conference game this season. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans: In years past they was an exciting game. With Stanford's stingy defense and USC facing some injury concerns, it won't be close this year. STANFORD by 18
#25 Houston Cougars at #6 Louisville Cardinals: The Cardinals get to prove themselves in this game. The national press, who don't think much of Louisville because they are not a perennial power, have had little faith in them, hence their #22 BCS rankings. The numbers they are posting, a factor in my computerized system, boosts them. Houston is a strong team with a good defense. A strong performance here by Teddy Bridgewater and company should start rising Louisville to the Top Ten position they deserve. LOUISVILLE by 16
Utah Utes at #8 Oregon Ducks: The Utes have been a threat to ranked teams at home, but they are a much weaker opponent on the road. The Ducks get a strong win to help counter last week's disappointment. OREGON by 23
Indiana Hoosiers at #11 Wisconsin Badgers: Indiana may have scored nearly fifty points last week, but that was against Illinois' pathetic defense. This week things will be quite different. The Badgers have the most dangerous two-back offensive backfield that any team has ever faced, and they can pass the ball when needed. Indiana won't have solutions for all of the ways the offense can move. WISCONSIN by 14
Georgia Bulldogs at #12 Auburn Tigers: Georgia has had an up-and-down season. They have good games, and they have terrible games. Auburn proved their strength last week. Their defense isn't great, which gives Aaron Murray a chance to put up some numbers, but the Auburn offense is powerful, stronger than what Georgia can handle. AUBURN by nine
#13 Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska redeemed themselves last week, but now they face the toughest defense in the conference, and one of the toughest in the country. That'll frustrate a Cornhuskers offense already suffering from injuries. MICHIGAN STATE by 12
#16 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns: No matter who wins, I'm not sure if it qualifies as an upset. Oklahoma State is ranked higher, and has a better overall record. However, Texas is unbeaten in Big XII play, and has been a tough opponent who finds ways to win. I'll pick the Cowboys, but this game could go either way. OKLAHOMA STATE by four
Oregon State Beavers at #17 Arizona State Sun Devils: Another game that could go either way, I'd probably pick the Beavers if the game was played in Corvallis. The Beavers are a different team on the road, and the Sun Devils near-loss last week may wake them up and force them to play tougher this week. ARIZONA STATE by eleven
Florida Gators at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks: A loss here nearly guarantees that Florida will fail to reach a bowl game (as a win against the Seminoles is EXTREMELY unlikely). Florida may try to win, but the Gamecocks defense will make that hard. The Gamecocks are great at causing turnovers, and Florida has suffered from them this season. SOUTH CAROLINA by 16
#19 UCF Golden Knights at Temple Owls: Let's see -- a team with an unbeaten conference record faces a team with a winless conference record. Somehow the outcome doesn't seem in doubt. UCF by 27
Iowa State Cyclones at #23 Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners were shocked last week, but they won't be this week. The Cyclones play well for part of a game, but they haven't put together four consecutive good quarters. OKLAHOMA by 23
UAB Blazers at #24 East Carolina Pirates: A win here sets up East Carolina for the showdown with Marshall, where the winner captures the division title. UAB won't really be able to stop them. EAST CAROLINA by 20
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Purdue is the worst team in the conference, suffering two shutouts and many blowouts. While I'm not sure Penn State will blow them out, they will win. PENN STATE by 20
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has struggled in Big Ten games, and those struggles are likely to continue. Michigan's offense looked confused in their last game, which led to Nebraska's needed victory. I think they'll get that straightened out this week. MICHIGAN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats: The only Game of Interest this week, as our other On the Edge teams are playing ranked opponents. The chances of them losing gives Arizona the opportunity to improve their standing. They certainly have the talent and offense to do that. ARIZONA by 20
GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Baylor Bears: Baylor is in the middle of their most difficult three-game stretch. Winning out will put them in Florida State territory. Losing one will cost them ranking position, as Stanford would probably be the higher-ranked one-loss team. Thus, Baylor knows what is at stake -- they must keep winning. I think they'll do that here. Texas Tech has an offense nearly as potent as Baylor's, but their defense is weak. Baylor's defense is better, and that will be the difference. BAYLOR by nine
Sunday, November 10, 2013
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 11
Oregon fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, Oklahoma lost a second game by a significant margin, and Alabama cemented their hold on the top spot. We had some other juggling, including Miami's fall from the Top 25. Let's take a look...
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1] : They demolished LSU in what some warned could be a trap game. It may take Missouri in the SEC Championship to knock off Alabama.
2. Florida State Seminoles (9-0) [2] : They nearly shut out Wake Forest in another outrageously dominant performance.
3. Baylor Bears (8-0) [5] : They demolished Oklahoma and propelled themselves into National Championship conversations.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) [4]
5. Stanford Cardinal (8-1) [7] : Their defeat of Oregon, and tremendous defensive accomplishments, blast them into the Top 5.
6. Louisville Cardinals (8-1) [6] : Another stellar Teddy Bridgewater performance, but Jameis Winston has knocked Teddy out of Heisman conversations.
7. Missouri Tigers (9-1) [8] : It looks like Texas A&M might be the only team with a chance to keep the Tigers out of the SEC Championship.
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [3] : Stanford showed that the offense could be stopped, and the Ducks' wings are clipped.
9. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [9]
10. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [11] : It was a tight game for the Aggies, but another strong performance for Johnny Manziel. Those three interceptions could make it tough for the Aggies in upcoming games, though.
11. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [13] : The Badgers made a strong statement against the BYU Cougars. The statement - "We are for real."
12. Auburn Tigers (9-1) [22] : Not a great defensive performance, but their offense rolled against Tennessee. The Iron Bowl has now become interesting.
13. Michigan State Spartans (8-1) [14]
14. LSU Tigers (7-3) [10] : The Tigers may have lost a spot in a New Years bowl.
15. UCLA Bruins (7-2) [15] : They squeaked by Arizona, but they still have some tough games coming up.
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) [21] : The Cowboys thrashed Kansas in preparation for Baylor.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) [16] : Utah nearly claimed their second ranked Pac-12 upset.
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [18]
19. UCF Golden Knights (7-1) [19] : UCF fans can breathe now; they got past Houston
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-0) [20]
21. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-0) [23] : They just keep getting better each week. This time they spotted Wyoming 10 points and scored the next 48.
22. Ball State Cardinals (9-1) [24] : A strong victory keeps them pacing Northern Illinois for the MAC West title.
23. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [12] : When this team loses, they lose big! Can they bounce back?
24. East Carolina Pirates (7-2) [NR] : The Conference USA leader leaps into the Top 25 with a dominant victory.
25. Houston Cougars (7-2) [25] : They played tough against UCF
Dropped off: Miami Hurricanes [#17]
On the Edge: Texas Longhorns (7-2), USC Trojans (7-3), Buffalo Bulls (7-2), Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2), Oregon State Beavers (6-3), Washington Huskies (6-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3), Arizona Wildcats (6-3), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-3), BYU Cougars (6-3)
Some divisional and conference races got clearer, and we crowned our first division winner.
American Athletic: UCF's tight win over Houston gives them the solo lead, and tiebreaker benefit over Louisville and Houston. UCF doesn't play Cincinnati, who is only a game back. UCF needs to win out, or win three with a Cincy loss, to capture the title. Cincy needs someone to beat UCF, and their only remaining opponent with a winning record is Rutgers, who the Knights play on Thurs Nov 21st.
ACC Atlantic: FLORIDA STATE wins this one. They have only one more conference game, and with the tiebreaker over Clemson, essentially has at least a two-game lead over everyone else. The Number Two goes into the ACC Championship, and maybe the National Championship after that.
ACC Coastal: Miami's loss gums up the works a bit. The Yellow Jackets, who currently lead the division, play only one more conference game, against Atlantic opponent Clemson. It seems likely they will lose that game. Worse, Georgia Tech lost to both Virginia Tech and Miami, two other teams currently with two conference losses. A loss to Clemson would be the Yellow Jackets' third ACC loss and likely a costly one. Virginia Tech has the best road. They beat Miami and Georgia Tech. They lost to Duke, but face Maryland and Virginia in their remaining games; these two teams have only one ACC win between them. Duke faces Miami this week, so a loss there knocks them out.
Big XII: Texas and Baylor still lead the conference. Oklahoma State is only a game back, but the Cowboys have to play BOTH of the conference leaders in the next two weeks. Chances are they'll lose at least one of those. Both Baylor and Texas have the same opponents to close the season: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and each other. The winner of the conference will do the better job running the table.
Big Ten Leaders: Wisconsin still trails Ohio State by only a game, but their one conference loss was to the Buckeyes. Ohio State faces Illinois and Indiana in the next two weeks, so they are likely to clinch with those two victories.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan State leads the division with Nebraska just a game back. They face each other this week, so a Spartan victory nearly assures them the title. A follow-up victory over Northwestern would clinch it, even before Minnesota has a chance to weigh in.
Conference USA East: East Carolina and Marshall both lead this division. The Pirates have only one more conference game, against lowly UAB, before facing Marshall the day after Thanksgiving. Of course, Marshall faces Tulsa and Florida International, each with only one conference win, before then. Chances are this title will be decided when these two meet.
Conference USA West: North Texas holds the lead, as they have tiebreaker advantage over Rice. The Mean Green have a bye week this week before facing fiesty UTSA. If they beat the Roadrunners, they win the division.
MAC East: Wait, let me verify this... yes, Buffalo leads the pack! By beating Ohio (beating?! They trounced them!), the only competition remaining is Bowling Green. They conclude the regular season facing each other. Buffalo could win before that time if they win their two preceding games and Bowling Green stumbles against Ohio this week.
MAC West: Ball State and Northern Illinois are locked in battle over this one. This Wednesday's contest between the two could decide it. A Ball State victory clinches it for the Cardinals, who have only one more conference game (against winless Miami Ohio) after that. Northern Illinois would still have to face Toledo. A Huskies win over Ball State but a subsequent Toledo upset locks the three into a three-way tie, which would likely go to Northern Illinois, who would have the highest BCS rank.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise State has the advantage, with the lead and a tiebreaker edge over Utah State. The Aggies would need to win out and hope San Diego State beats the Broncos.
Mountain West West: Thanks to San Diego State, who beat San Jose State and who fell to Fresno State earlier this season, the Bulldogs basically have it. To clinch, Fresno State simply needs to beat ONE of their two remaining foes, and they face hapless New Mexico next.
Pac-12 North: Stanford's win over Oregon makes this title within their reach. If they beat USC this week, that basically caps it, as I don't see Cal giving them any problem. A Trojan upset puts Oregon back in the driver's seat.
Pac-12 South: Division leader Arizona State already beat USC. If they beat UCLA in two weeks, the division is theirs. A Bruins win makes it tight, but of course UCLA has to get past both Washington and USC.
SEC East: If Missouri wins out, they win. That means beating Texas A&M. If the Aggies beat them, South Carolina would win the division, provided they beat Florida this week.
SEC West: The Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn will decide this one, unless Auburn slips up against Georgia.
Sun Belt: If Louisiana-Lafayette beats Georgia State and South Alabama, who have a total of one conference victory between them, they win the conference, regardless of whether they beat Louisiana-Monroe. If they do beat the Warhawks, they win the conference.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0) [1] : They demolished LSU in what some warned could be a trap game. It may take Missouri in the SEC Championship to knock off Alabama.
2. Florida State Seminoles (9-0) [2] : They nearly shut out Wake Forest in another outrageously dominant performance.
3. Baylor Bears (8-0) [5] : They demolished Oklahoma and propelled themselves into National Championship conversations.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) [4]
5. Stanford Cardinal (8-1) [7] : Their defeat of Oregon, and tremendous defensive accomplishments, blast them into the Top 5.
6. Louisville Cardinals (8-1) [6] : Another stellar Teddy Bridgewater performance, but Jameis Winston has knocked Teddy out of Heisman conversations.
7. Missouri Tigers (9-1) [8] : It looks like Texas A&M might be the only team with a chance to keep the Tigers out of the SEC Championship.
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1) [3] : Stanford showed that the offense could be stopped, and the Ducks' wings are clipped.
9. Clemson Tigers (8-1) [9]
10. Texas A&M Aggies (8-2) [11] : It was a tight game for the Aggies, but another strong performance for Johnny Manziel. Those three interceptions could make it tough for the Aggies in upcoming games, though.
11. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) [13] : The Badgers made a strong statement against the BYU Cougars. The statement - "We are for real."
12. Auburn Tigers (9-1) [22] : Not a great defensive performance, but their offense rolled against Tennessee. The Iron Bowl has now become interesting.
13. Michigan State Spartans (8-1) [14]
14. LSU Tigers (7-3) [10] : The Tigers may have lost a spot in a New Years bowl.
15. UCLA Bruins (7-2) [15] : They squeaked by Arizona, but they still have some tough games coming up.
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) [21] : The Cowboys thrashed Kansas in preparation for Baylor.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (8-2) [16] : Utah nearly claimed their second ranked Pac-12 upset.
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [18]
19. UCF Golden Knights (7-1) [19] : UCF fans can breathe now; they got past Houston
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-0) [20]
21. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-0) [23] : They just keep getting better each week. This time they spotted Wyoming 10 points and scored the next 48.
22. Ball State Cardinals (9-1) [24] : A strong victory keeps them pacing Northern Illinois for the MAC West title.
23. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [12] : When this team loses, they lose big! Can they bounce back?
24. East Carolina Pirates (7-2) [NR] : The Conference USA leader leaps into the Top 25 with a dominant victory.
25. Houston Cougars (7-2) [25] : They played tough against UCF
Dropped off: Miami Hurricanes [#17]
On the Edge: Texas Longhorns (7-2), USC Trojans (7-3), Buffalo Bulls (7-2), Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2), Oregon State Beavers (6-3), Washington Huskies (6-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (6-3), Arizona Wildcats (6-3), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-3), BYU Cougars (6-3)
Some divisional and conference races got clearer, and we crowned our first division winner.
American Athletic: UCF's tight win over Houston gives them the solo lead, and tiebreaker benefit over Louisville and Houston. UCF doesn't play Cincinnati, who is only a game back. UCF needs to win out, or win three with a Cincy loss, to capture the title. Cincy needs someone to beat UCF, and their only remaining opponent with a winning record is Rutgers, who the Knights play on Thurs Nov 21st.
ACC Atlantic: FLORIDA STATE wins this one. They have only one more conference game, and with the tiebreaker over Clemson, essentially has at least a two-game lead over everyone else. The Number Two goes into the ACC Championship, and maybe the National Championship after that.
ACC Coastal: Miami's loss gums up the works a bit. The Yellow Jackets, who currently lead the division, play only one more conference game, against Atlantic opponent Clemson. It seems likely they will lose that game. Worse, Georgia Tech lost to both Virginia Tech and Miami, two other teams currently with two conference losses. A loss to Clemson would be the Yellow Jackets' third ACC loss and likely a costly one. Virginia Tech has the best road. They beat Miami and Georgia Tech. They lost to Duke, but face Maryland and Virginia in their remaining games; these two teams have only one ACC win between them. Duke faces Miami this week, so a loss there knocks them out.
Big XII: Texas and Baylor still lead the conference. Oklahoma State is only a game back, but the Cowboys have to play BOTH of the conference leaders in the next two weeks. Chances are they'll lose at least one of those. Both Baylor and Texas have the same opponents to close the season: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and each other. The winner of the conference will do the better job running the table.
Big Ten Leaders: Wisconsin still trails Ohio State by only a game, but their one conference loss was to the Buckeyes. Ohio State faces Illinois and Indiana in the next two weeks, so they are likely to clinch with those two victories.
Big Ten Legends: Michigan State leads the division with Nebraska just a game back. They face each other this week, so a Spartan victory nearly assures them the title. A follow-up victory over Northwestern would clinch it, even before Minnesota has a chance to weigh in.
Conference USA East: East Carolina and Marshall both lead this division. The Pirates have only one more conference game, against lowly UAB, before facing Marshall the day after Thanksgiving. Of course, Marshall faces Tulsa and Florida International, each with only one conference win, before then. Chances are this title will be decided when these two meet.
Conference USA West: North Texas holds the lead, as they have tiebreaker advantage over Rice. The Mean Green have a bye week this week before facing fiesty UTSA. If they beat the Roadrunners, they win the division.
MAC East: Wait, let me verify this... yes, Buffalo leads the pack! By beating Ohio (beating?! They trounced them!), the only competition remaining is Bowling Green. They conclude the regular season facing each other. Buffalo could win before that time if they win their two preceding games and Bowling Green stumbles against Ohio this week.
MAC West: Ball State and Northern Illinois are locked in battle over this one. This Wednesday's contest between the two could decide it. A Ball State victory clinches it for the Cardinals, who have only one more conference game (against winless Miami Ohio) after that. Northern Illinois would still have to face Toledo. A Huskies win over Ball State but a subsequent Toledo upset locks the three into a three-way tie, which would likely go to Northern Illinois, who would have the highest BCS rank.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise State has the advantage, with the lead and a tiebreaker edge over Utah State. The Aggies would need to win out and hope San Diego State beats the Broncos.
Mountain West West: Thanks to San Diego State, who beat San Jose State and who fell to Fresno State earlier this season, the Bulldogs basically have it. To clinch, Fresno State simply needs to beat ONE of their two remaining foes, and they face hapless New Mexico next.
Pac-12 North: Stanford's win over Oregon makes this title within their reach. If they beat USC this week, that basically caps it, as I don't see Cal giving them any problem. A Trojan upset puts Oregon back in the driver's seat.
Pac-12 South: Division leader Arizona State already beat USC. If they beat UCLA in two weeks, the division is theirs. A Bruins win makes it tight, but of course UCLA has to get past both Washington and USC.
SEC East: If Missouri wins out, they win. That means beating Texas A&M. If the Aggies beat them, South Carolina would win the division, provided they beat Florida this week.
SEC West: The Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn will decide this one, unless Auburn slips up against Georgia.
Sun Belt: If Louisiana-Lafayette beats Georgia State and South Alabama, who have a total of one conference victory between them, they win the conference, regardless of whether they beat Louisiana-Monroe. If they do beat the Warhawks, they win the conference.
Wednesday, November 6, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 10 Power Rankings and picks
We still have one unbeaten team and two winless teams, although Tampa forced Seattle into overtime before the Seahawks won. KC has a bye, but can one of the winless teams finally gain a victory?
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (7-1) [1] : The Broncos had a bye, but they still have the hottest offense in the league, despite two teams scoring more than 45 points this week.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) [2] : I predicted they'd do well, but even I didn't expect a 9-0 start. The Chiefs still have many of their toughest opponents ahead of them on their schedule, so we'll have to see if their unbeaten record lasts.
3. Seattle Seahawks (8-1) [4] : They nearly lost to the winless Bucs, but staged a great second half comeback. Still, they rose because the Saints lost. The Seahawks have looked the past three weeks -- they need to change that.
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-2) [8] : The Colts had to fight hard to squeak out a victory over a suddenly invigorated Case Keenum-led Texans team. Still, the Colts lept up four positions due to lackluster performances by other top teams.
5. New Orleans Saints (6-2) [3] : The Saints struggled to move the ball against the Jets. If this was earlier in Rex's tenure, I'd attribute it to a tough Jets defense, but that defense is two years ago. It was a strange collapse for the Saints. Let's see if they bounce back.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) [5]
7. Carolina Panthers (5-3) [7] : They had a big game, but the Falcons are in freefall.
8. New England Patriots (7-2) [10] : They struggled early, but then their offense came alive and demolished the Steelers. Impressive game for the Pats offense, but the defense allowed too many points.
9. Green Bay Packers (5-3) [6] : Two tough losses for the Pack - to the Bears, and the injury to Aaron Rodgers. This team may fall far in the next three weeks while Rodgers is out.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) [9] : An overtime loss tumbled the Bengals, but the fact that they remain in the Top Ten shows the gap between these ten teams and the rest of the league.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : So long as they have the top two teams in the league, this division will still ride high, no matter how badly Oakland or San Diego loses.
2. NFC West [2] : Not a great week for the division, but they had such a large gap that they could afford to slip.
3. NFC North [4] : Green Bay and Minnesota battled hard in losses, and the Bears had an impressive win. It'll be interesting to see what happens to this division with Aaron Rodgers out. Still, they are the only division with three teams with winning records; that shows strength.
4. NFC South [3] : Panthers won big, but everyone else lost. The Bucs played tough, so this division may be in for a rise.
5. AFC East [6] : Miami and the Jets both win, and the Pats have a huge victory. This division is moving up.
6. AFC North [5] : Cincy and Pittsburgh both lost and Cleveland knocked off Baltimore. This division has three teams with losing records -- that matches the NFC East.
7. AFC South [7] : The Titans pulled even and Houston fought hard, but this division still has distance to go.
8. NFC East [8] : Philly had a tremendous win, the Redskins won in overtime, and Dallas gained a winning record, but this division has plenty of distance to bridge. They still have three teams with losing records.
Thursday night
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: No matter who plays quarterback, the Vikings are a train wreck. Their defense isn't consistent enough to give them hope, and the Redskins are looking better. REDSKINS, 30-23
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have finally admitted that their ground game stinks, and gave Big Ben the ball. They scored well, but their defense was too porous and New England took control. The Bills, on the other hand, seem a more appropriate target. Also, to get wiped out like that, you know the Steelers defense will toughen. STEELERS, 27-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens lost to the Browns for the first time ever. Can they bounce back? Perhaps, but the Bengals also need to bounce back from a tough overtime loss to Miami. Some sportswriters are pointing fingers at Andy Dalton, which will just inspire him to have a good game. BENGALS, 24-21
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Some people are saying that Jay Cutler will play on Sunday, but Jay himself isn't so sure. It may not matter, as Josh McCown is getting comfortable under center and moved the team well on Monday. I think the Bears will use their win over Green Bay as an emotional boost that will propel them to victory, even though the Lions are the better team. BEARS, 30-27
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker and the Titans are doing well, but they don't even need to be doing well to beat the Jags. TITANS, 31-10
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants: Despite records, this game could go either way. The Giants are coming off a bye, and they were starting to catch fire before the break. The Raiders were pulverized by the Eagles and have something to prove. Who will be more committed to win this game? I think the Giants, but if they make a mistake, the Raiders will capitalize. I'm not sure the Giants have gotten over their turnover and penalty issues from earlier this season. RAIDERS, 23-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: With Aaron Rodgers out for at least three weeks, Seneca Wallace is called upon to lead a banged-up Packers offense. He'll need help from both the running game and the defense. He may not get that help this week. I think Philly will take an early lead, on the strength of that offense, forcing the Pack to throw more. They can't afford to put the game into Wallace's hands. EAGLES, 34-23
St Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts get a much easier opponent to catch their breath after a tough bout against Houston. COLTS, 30-17
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: I don't want to be cruel, but let's be honest -- the Falcons are in chaos. Their normally strong offense is floundering, and the defense is not helping. Seattle has been struggling, but this will be a game where they can turn that around. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: Carolina is looking goof, so this could be a closer game than the 49ers would like. However, the extra week gives the 49ers an advantage, both in health and in preparation. 49ERS, 23-20
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are a strange team. They have the talent, they can look good, and then they fall apart. The Chargers might lead early in this game, but that collapse will be the opening for the Broncos to come back. BRONCOS, 31-23
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: Case Keenum did an incredible job last week, but the team unraveled a bit after Coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at halftime. They know his status, but he's not there, and Keenum won't surprise opponents now. The Texans will keep this one close, but I think the Cardinals will win. CARDS, 26-21
Sunday night
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: The Saints will want to bounce back from an embarrassment against the Jets. Dallas is cruising, but they still have some cracks. The Saints will push the defense, and we'll see how well-improved the Saints defense is. SAINTS, 28-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Bucs: Very few teams have a better Monday Night record than Miami. Tampa is scrambling to find their first win, but it won't happen here. DOLPHINS, 24-13
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (7-1) [1] : The Broncos had a bye, but they still have the hottest offense in the league, despite two teams scoring more than 45 points this week.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) [2] : I predicted they'd do well, but even I didn't expect a 9-0 start. The Chiefs still have many of their toughest opponents ahead of them on their schedule, so we'll have to see if their unbeaten record lasts.
3. Seattle Seahawks (8-1) [4] : They nearly lost to the winless Bucs, but staged a great second half comeback. Still, they rose because the Saints lost. The Seahawks have looked the past three weeks -- they need to change that.
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-2) [8] : The Colts had to fight hard to squeak out a victory over a suddenly invigorated Case Keenum-led Texans team. Still, the Colts lept up four positions due to lackluster performances by other top teams.
5. New Orleans Saints (6-2) [3] : The Saints struggled to move the ball against the Jets. If this was earlier in Rex's tenure, I'd attribute it to a tough Jets defense, but that defense is two years ago. It was a strange collapse for the Saints. Let's see if they bounce back.
6. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) [5]
7. Carolina Panthers (5-3) [7] : They had a big game, but the Falcons are in freefall.
8. New England Patriots (7-2) [10] : They struggled early, but then their offense came alive and demolished the Steelers. Impressive game for the Pats offense, but the defense allowed too many points.
9. Green Bay Packers (5-3) [6] : Two tough losses for the Pack - to the Bears, and the injury to Aaron Rodgers. This team may fall far in the next three weeks while Rodgers is out.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) [9] : An overtime loss tumbled the Bengals, but the fact that they remain in the Top Ten shows the gap between these ten teams and the rest of the league.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : So long as they have the top two teams in the league, this division will still ride high, no matter how badly Oakland or San Diego loses.
2. NFC West [2] : Not a great week for the division, but they had such a large gap that they could afford to slip.
3. NFC North [4] : Green Bay and Minnesota battled hard in losses, and the Bears had an impressive win. It'll be interesting to see what happens to this division with Aaron Rodgers out. Still, they are the only division with three teams with winning records; that shows strength.
4. NFC South [3] : Panthers won big, but everyone else lost. The Bucs played tough, so this division may be in for a rise.
5. AFC East [6] : Miami and the Jets both win, and the Pats have a huge victory. This division is moving up.
6. AFC North [5] : Cincy and Pittsburgh both lost and Cleveland knocked off Baltimore. This division has three teams with losing records -- that matches the NFC East.
7. AFC South [7] : The Titans pulled even and Houston fought hard, but this division still has distance to go.
8. NFC East [8] : Philly had a tremendous win, the Redskins won in overtime, and Dallas gained a winning record, but this division has plenty of distance to bridge. They still have three teams with losing records.
Thursday night
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: No matter who plays quarterback, the Vikings are a train wreck. Their defense isn't consistent enough to give them hope, and the Redskins are looking better. REDSKINS, 30-23
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have finally admitted that their ground game stinks, and gave Big Ben the ball. They scored well, but their defense was too porous and New England took control. The Bills, on the other hand, seem a more appropriate target. Also, to get wiped out like that, you know the Steelers defense will toughen. STEELERS, 27-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens lost to the Browns for the first time ever. Can they bounce back? Perhaps, but the Bengals also need to bounce back from a tough overtime loss to Miami. Some sportswriters are pointing fingers at Andy Dalton, which will just inspire him to have a good game. BENGALS, 24-21
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Some people are saying that Jay Cutler will play on Sunday, but Jay himself isn't so sure. It may not matter, as Josh McCown is getting comfortable under center and moved the team well on Monday. I think the Bears will use their win over Green Bay as an emotional boost that will propel them to victory, even though the Lions are the better team. BEARS, 30-27
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker and the Titans are doing well, but they don't even need to be doing well to beat the Jags. TITANS, 31-10
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants: Despite records, this game could go either way. The Giants are coming off a bye, and they were starting to catch fire before the break. The Raiders were pulverized by the Eagles and have something to prove. Who will be more committed to win this game? I think the Giants, but if they make a mistake, the Raiders will capitalize. I'm not sure the Giants have gotten over their turnover and penalty issues from earlier this season. RAIDERS, 23-20
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: With Aaron Rodgers out for at least three weeks, Seneca Wallace is called upon to lead a banged-up Packers offense. He'll need help from both the running game and the defense. He may not get that help this week. I think Philly will take an early lead, on the strength of that offense, forcing the Pack to throw more. They can't afford to put the game into Wallace's hands. EAGLES, 34-23
St Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts get a much easier opponent to catch their breath after a tough bout against Houston. COLTS, 30-17
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: I don't want to be cruel, but let's be honest -- the Falcons are in chaos. Their normally strong offense is floundering, and the defense is not helping. Seattle has been struggling, but this will be a game where they can turn that around. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
Sunday late games
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: Carolina is looking goof, so this could be a closer game than the 49ers would like. However, the extra week gives the 49ers an advantage, both in health and in preparation. 49ERS, 23-20
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers are a strange team. They have the talent, they can look good, and then they fall apart. The Chargers might lead early in this game, but that collapse will be the opening for the Broncos to come back. BRONCOS, 31-23
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: Case Keenum did an incredible job last week, but the team unraveled a bit after Coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at halftime. They know his status, but he's not there, and Keenum won't surprise opponents now. The Texans will keep this one close, but I think the Cardinals will win. CARDS, 26-21
Sunday night
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: The Saints will want to bounce back from an embarrassment against the Jets. Dallas is cruising, but they still have some cracks. The Saints will push the defense, and we'll see how well-improved the Saints defense is. SAINTS, 28-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Bucs: Very few teams have a better Monday Night record than Miami. Tampa is scrambling to find their first win, but it won't happen here. DOLPHINS, 24-13
Monday, November 4, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 11 picks
Not many upsets, but we had some spooky results in Halloween week. Boston College and Air Force surprised their opponents and gained a win. Navy and Indiana played their tougher opponents surprisingly close; Notre Dame had to actually come from behind against Navy. Other games were not nearly as close as expected: Michigan State flattened the Wolverines, Oklahoma State outscored Texas Tech, and Florida State dropped Miami from the ranks of the unbeaten.
What surprises will we have this week? I don't know, but given how many important games are played BEFORE Saturday, we have potential for upsets even before the dawn comes on Saturday.
Tues Nov 5
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami Ohio Redhawks: The Redhawks haven't won a MAC game all season, and this won't be their first. Bowling Green is chasing Ohio and Buffalo for the division lead, and the latter two play each other. A win here is imperative. BOWLING GREEN by 24
Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls: The lead in the MAC East is on the line. Ohio has been in this position before, so I have to give a slight edge to them. That's about the only edge, as both of these teams are evenly matched. This game could go either way, and a Bulls win would signal a chance for them to win their first conference title since escalating to FBS play. OHIO by three
Wed Nov 6
Central Michigan Chippewas at #24 Ball State Cardinals: Ball State wants to remain even with Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC West. Central Michigan won't be that much of a challenge. BALL STATE by 23
Thurs Nov 7
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at #5 Baylor Bears: It would seem like Baylor would have this game in the bag, but never discount a determined team of Sooners. Oklahoma's defense will cause some havoc, and their offense is capable of keeping pace for a while. If the Bears do not trail at the half, or don't lose their patience, they can outlast the Sooners. But if they get frazzled because they can't pull away from Oklahoma like they have other teams, they may give the game to Oklahoma. I'll stick with the Bears, but this will be a very close game. BAYLOR by six
#3 Oregon Ducks at #7 Stanford Cardinal: I was tempted to make this my Game of the Week, but I tend to make those Saturday games. This will likely be the most exciting game of the week, though. Stanford's defense goes up against the high-octane Oregon offense. They have beaten them before, and they are capable of doing so again, but I'll stick with Oregon tiring them out. Watch for the Cardinal upset, though. OREGON by five
Fri Nov 8
#6 Louisville Cardinals at UConn Huskies: The Cardinals should have no problem beating the Huskies to maintain pace with UCF and Houston, who play each other on Saturday. LOUISVILLE by 27
Top 25
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake might play hard in the first quarter, but then the Seminoles offense will explode and knock them down. FLORIDA STATE by 26
#8 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has lost every SEC game they've played this season, although they've fought hard in some of them. The Tigers will exhaust them, allowing for a great second half roll. MISSOURI by 27
Mississippi State Bulldogs at #11 Texas A&M Aggies: Johnny Manziel and the Aggies shouldn't have too much trouble with the Bulldogs. TEXAS A&M by 23
BYU Cougars at #13 Wisconsin Badgers: Both of these teams have strong ground games with capable passing attacks. The Badgers have a slightly better defense, and they've been hardened by slightly tougher competition. I like the Badgers chances here, but BYU might make it interesting. WISCONSIN by nine
#15 UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats: These two are in a crucial situation, as the loser is likely out of the division race. UCLA has the offense, but Arizona has an opportunistic defense, and their offense isn't weak. This will likely be a close game. I think UCLA has the crew to pull this out, but it'll be a squeaker that could go the other way. UCLA by six
#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes: Utah is struggling in Pac-12 play, and their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Sun Devils. ARIZONA STATE by 20
Virginia Tech Hokies at #17 Miami Hurricanes: Virginia Tech is showing the cracks that I've seen all season, but those national analysts who put them into their Top 25 couldn't see. Miami will get a chance to redeem themselves after their crushing defeat at the hands of Florida State. MIAMI by 17
#25 Houston Cougars at #19 UCF Golden Knights: UCF may have needed the extra week to prepare. Houston can be a tough opponent, and this is a crucial game, as the winner will have a strong lead in the American Athletic Conference. I like UCF's chances, but this may be a closer game than they like. If they let that rattle them, they could make mistakes that Houston could utilize to engineer a comeback. UCF by ten
Kansas Jayhawks at #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys pulled off one of their best offensive performances against Texas Tech last week, so this game will serve as a great breather. OKLAHOMA STATE by 23
#22 Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Auburn should have a pretty easy time of it against Tennessee. The Vols may score, as the Tigers defense isn't on par with other seasons, but their offense moves much better. AUBURN by 18
#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't bad, but Fresno State will wake up from last week's slow start and make this a "signature" game. FRESNO STATE by 20
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers defense didn't stop Indiana, but that game will probably shake them up. With Nebraska struggling (they should have lost to Northwestern except for a LUCKY Hail Mary result), they know they have a chance to advance in their division, so this game is important; too important for them to let it pass. MINNESOTA by nine
Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue is clearly the worst team in the Big Ten, so Iowa should roll. IOWA by 28
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan wants a strong game to erase the sting from losing the Paul Bunyan Axe to the Spartans. Nebraska should have lost to Northwestern -- they will lose to Michigan. MICHIGAN by 16
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers: I picked Illinois last week, and they nearly won. Indiana pulled out all the stops against Minnesota, and I think that may have exhausted them. Illinois' offense is good turnovers cost them ten points and a victory in regulation to Penn State. I think Illinois will play slightly clearner, and end the conference losing streak. ILLINOIS by four
Other Games of Interest
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers: Notre Dame let Navy score a lot of points, but Pitt isn't quite as adept on offense. This shouldn't be too challenging a game for the Irish. NOTRE DAME by 17
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Kansas State's season has been unsteady, and now they travel to Lubbock to face an angry Texas Tech team. The Raiders were beaten by a Cowboys team playing their form of football -- that'll tick off anyone. Texas Tech's anger will be reflected on the scoreboard. TEXAS TECH by 23
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates definitely have the upper hand in this game. Tulsa, normally a competitive team, is rebuilding this year. Their offense will be stopped by the Pirates, and the Pirates' offense will roll. EAST CAROLINA by 20
NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils: Duke will continue to compete for the division title, as they should roll over the pathetic Wolfpack, who haven't won a single ACC game this season. Duke will continue what may be their best football season in a century. DUKE by 17
Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia beat TCU last week, but the Mountaineers have mostly been ineffective this year. Now they face the conference leader. Texas will continue their unbeaten Big XII streak. TEXAS by 21
GAME OF THE WEEK: #10 LSU Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: LSU was their lone loss two seasons ago, and Alabama avenged that loss in the National Championship Game. Since then they have prepared well for games against LSU, knowing how dangerous they can be. Bama will be ready for them, but this game won't be a blowout. ALABAMA by six
What surprises will we have this week? I don't know, but given how many important games are played BEFORE Saturday, we have potential for upsets even before the dawn comes on Saturday.
Tues Nov 5
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami Ohio Redhawks: The Redhawks haven't won a MAC game all season, and this won't be their first. Bowling Green is chasing Ohio and Buffalo for the division lead, and the latter two play each other. A win here is imperative. BOWLING GREEN by 24
Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls: The lead in the MAC East is on the line. Ohio has been in this position before, so I have to give a slight edge to them. That's about the only edge, as both of these teams are evenly matched. This game could go either way, and a Bulls win would signal a chance for them to win their first conference title since escalating to FBS play. OHIO by three
Wed Nov 6
Central Michigan Chippewas at #24 Ball State Cardinals: Ball State wants to remain even with Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC West. Central Michigan won't be that much of a challenge. BALL STATE by 23
Thurs Nov 7
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at #5 Baylor Bears: It would seem like Baylor would have this game in the bag, but never discount a determined team of Sooners. Oklahoma's defense will cause some havoc, and their offense is capable of keeping pace for a while. If the Bears do not trail at the half, or don't lose their patience, they can outlast the Sooners. But if they get frazzled because they can't pull away from Oklahoma like they have other teams, they may give the game to Oklahoma. I'll stick with the Bears, but this will be a very close game. BAYLOR by six
#3 Oregon Ducks at #7 Stanford Cardinal: I was tempted to make this my Game of the Week, but I tend to make those Saturday games. This will likely be the most exciting game of the week, though. Stanford's defense goes up against the high-octane Oregon offense. They have beaten them before, and they are capable of doing so again, but I'll stick with Oregon tiring them out. Watch for the Cardinal upset, though. OREGON by five
Fri Nov 8
#6 Louisville Cardinals at UConn Huskies: The Cardinals should have no problem beating the Huskies to maintain pace with UCF and Houston, who play each other on Saturday. LOUISVILLE by 27
Top 25
#2 Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake might play hard in the first quarter, but then the Seminoles offense will explode and knock them down. FLORIDA STATE by 26
#8 Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has lost every SEC game they've played this season, although they've fought hard in some of them. The Tigers will exhaust them, allowing for a great second half roll. MISSOURI by 27
Mississippi State Bulldogs at #11 Texas A&M Aggies: Johnny Manziel and the Aggies shouldn't have too much trouble with the Bulldogs. TEXAS A&M by 23
BYU Cougars at #13 Wisconsin Badgers: Both of these teams have strong ground games with capable passing attacks. The Badgers have a slightly better defense, and they've been hardened by slightly tougher competition. I like the Badgers chances here, but BYU might make it interesting. WISCONSIN by nine
#15 UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats: These two are in a crucial situation, as the loser is likely out of the division race. UCLA has the offense, but Arizona has an opportunistic defense, and their offense isn't weak. This will likely be a close game. I think UCLA has the crew to pull this out, but it'll be a squeaker that could go the other way. UCLA by six
#16 Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes: Utah is struggling in Pac-12 play, and their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Sun Devils. ARIZONA STATE by 20
Virginia Tech Hokies at #17 Miami Hurricanes: Virginia Tech is showing the cracks that I've seen all season, but those national analysts who put them into their Top 25 couldn't see. Miami will get a chance to redeem themselves after their crushing defeat at the hands of Florida State. MIAMI by 17
#25 Houston Cougars at #19 UCF Golden Knights: UCF may have needed the extra week to prepare. Houston can be a tough opponent, and this is a crucial game, as the winner will have a strong lead in the American Athletic Conference. I like UCF's chances, but this may be a closer game than they like. If they let that rattle them, they could make mistakes that Houston could utilize to engineer a comeback. UCF by ten
Kansas Jayhawks at #21 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys pulled off one of their best offensive performances against Texas Tech last week, so this game will serve as a great breather. OKLAHOMA STATE by 23
#22 Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: Auburn should have a pretty easy time of it against Tennessee. The Vols may score, as the Tigers defense isn't on par with other seasons, but their offense moves much better. AUBURN by 18
#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at Wyoming Cowboys: Wyoming isn't bad, but Fresno State will wake up from last week's slow start and make this a "signature" game. FRESNO STATE by 20
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers defense didn't stop Indiana, but that game will probably shake them up. With Nebraska struggling (they should have lost to Northwestern except for a LUCKY Hail Mary result), they know they have a chance to advance in their division, so this game is important; too important for them to let it pass. MINNESOTA by nine
Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue is clearly the worst team in the Big Ten, so Iowa should roll. IOWA by 28
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan wants a strong game to erase the sting from losing the Paul Bunyan Axe to the Spartans. Nebraska should have lost to Northwestern -- they will lose to Michigan. MICHIGAN by 16
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers: I picked Illinois last week, and they nearly won. Indiana pulled out all the stops against Minnesota, and I think that may have exhausted them. Illinois' offense is good turnovers cost them ten points and a victory in regulation to Penn State. I think Illinois will play slightly clearner, and end the conference losing streak. ILLINOIS by four
Other Games of Interest
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers: Notre Dame let Navy score a lot of points, but Pitt isn't quite as adept on offense. This shouldn't be too challenging a game for the Irish. NOTRE DAME by 17
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Kansas State's season has been unsteady, and now they travel to Lubbock to face an angry Texas Tech team. The Raiders were beaten by a Cowboys team playing their form of football -- that'll tick off anyone. Texas Tech's anger will be reflected on the scoreboard. TEXAS TECH by 23
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates definitely have the upper hand in this game. Tulsa, normally a competitive team, is rebuilding this year. Their offense will be stopped by the Pirates, and the Pirates' offense will roll. EAST CAROLINA by 20
NC State Wolfpack at Duke Blue Devils: Duke will continue to compete for the division title, as they should roll over the pathetic Wolfpack, who haven't won a single ACC game this season. Duke will continue what may be their best football season in a century. DUKE by 17
Texas Longhorns at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia beat TCU last week, but the Mountaineers have mostly been ineffective this year. Now they face the conference leader. Texas will continue their unbeaten Big XII streak. TEXAS by 21
GAME OF THE WEEK: #10 LSU Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: LSU was their lone loss two seasons ago, and Alabama avenged that loss in the National Championship Game. Since then they have prepared well for games against LSU, knowing how dangerous they can be. Bama will be ready for them, but this game won't be a blowout. ALABAMA by six
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)