The AFC is starting to improve, with Denver finding footing, the Pats becoming a scoring machine again, and Pittsburgh thumping RGIII and the Redskins.
This week I can only list the top 15 teams in the league, because they are the only teams with a positive point differential. That means only fifteen teams in the league have scored more points than they have allowed. that points out the weakness of many of the offenses in the league, despite the rules designed to help the offense.
Top 15 [Last week's position]
1. Chicago Bears (6-1) [1] : I don't think Cam Newton is so depressed or confused now. He successfully faced the toughest defense in the league, and performed well. It helped that Jay Cutler was not connecting; he didn't even have 100 yards passing until midway in the fourth quarter. However, the Bears still won thanks to a defensive pick 6 and a well-coordinated late drive that put them in field goal range. Not a great game, but other teams couldn't quite advance enough to knock the Bears off the top spot.
2. Houston Texans (6-1) [2] : They survived a bye in the same position
3. Atlanta Falcons (7-0) [3] : Their pasting of the Eagles seemed to have quieted the critics who questioned whether their unbeaten record was more due to luck.
4. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) [5] : A tremendous defensive performance. The 49ers defense is as tough as the Bears, even if they don't force as many turnovers. Their two-game lead in the division is likely to grow.
5. New England Patriots (5-3) [6] : Unless they were showing off for the London audience, it seems clear that the Patriots' offense is back, and that's bad news for their upcoming opponents.
6. New York Giants (6-2) [4] : They won thanks to fingertips. If Dez Bryant had known how close he was to the back of the end zone, he likely would have changed the angle of his fall (or not put down his hand at all). The Giants have been a monster against everyone except Dallas this season. So long as they don't meet them in the playoffs, they still look good to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
7. Denver Broncos (4-3) [9] : After a slow start, Peyton has become comfortable with his new receivers, and the Broncos are posting the kind of offensive numbers that John Elway expected when Peyton was brought in.
8. Green Bay Packers (5-3) [8] : Nice win, but a pedestrian effort on the part of Aaron Rodgers.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) [11] : They dismantled RGIII and the Redskins defense with ease, chasing RGIII all over the field. Welcome back, Steel Curtain!
10. Miami Dolphins (4-3) [17] : Huge win over the Jets, finished off with a backup quarterback, proves that the Dolphins' offense is starting to work. If they can find momentum, they will challenge the AFC.
11. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [10]
12. Minnesota Vikings (5-3) [7] : Their dismantling by the Bucs has us questioning both their offense and their defense. If they can't right this ship, they're in trouble, as they face both Chicago and Green Bay twice.
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-4) [16] : The Bucs are showing improvement. I don't think their losing record will last.
14. Seattle Seahawks (4-4) [13] : They dropped due a loss, but Wilson still had a good game. Seattle just needs to get more consistent.
15. San Diego Chargers (3-4) [12] : Geez, what happened to their offense? The Browns beat them with what looked like a baseball score. Something is seriously wrong with the Chargers' offense plan.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
The AFC moved up, breaking the NFC v AFC divide.
1. NFC North [1] : The Vikings are sliding, but the Lions are improving, so this division remains the toughest. They are one game away from having no losing teams.
2. AFC North [5] : This position won't last, as Baltimore is likely to drop. A rare Browns win and a strong win by Pittsburgh fueled this boost.
3. NFC West [2] : Huge losses by the Rams and Arizona caused this division to slip. The 49ers are pulling away, and one team divisions don't tend to do well (just ask Houston and the rest of the AFC South).
4. NFC South [4] : The Bucs are improving, and a strong game by the Panthers keep this division in line
5. AFC East [6] : Huge games by the Pats and Jets have this division moving up
6. NFC East [3] : The Giants are no the only team in the division with a winning record. This division is on the way down
7. AFC West [7] : San Diego's collapse this week leaves only Denver as a contender
8. AFC South [8] : Houston remains the only bright spot, although Indianapolis showed spunk in overtime
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Sunday, October 28, 2012
NCAA Week 10 picks
Five previous unbeaten teams lost last week, so you would think there were plenty of upsets. There were, and they began on Friday night, when Air Force beat up on Nevada. The early afternoon on Saturday was slow, with only Boston College's upset of Maryland and the surprising 30-point victory Pitt engineered over Temple. The later afternoon got active, though. That's when three unbeaten teams fell: #4 Florida, #22 Ohio, and #23 Rutgers. Arizona also defeated USC and Oklahoma State slaughtered TCU. In fact, the 3:30-7:15 time frame saw the losses of all of the teams who fell from the Top 25. The evening slowed down upsets, featuring only three. All of those were not necessarily upsets due to the team that won, as both could have gone either way, but due to the margin of victory. Alabama humbled Mississippi State, who didn't look like a 7-0 team. Nebraska embarrassed Michigan and Notre Dame, after a slow start, demolished Oklahoma in the fourth quarter. The most shocking upset may have occurred late at night, when Washington humbled the normally dynamic Oregon State offense, given them their first loss.
Will we have that many upsets this week? I don't know, but it's interesting to see if I can predict any of them.
Thursday games
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats: The Bobcats no longer have to be concerned about maintaining their perfect record. Now their focus shifts to regaining the division lead. Destroying doormat Eastern Michigan will be an important start. OHIO by 23
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes: The loss by Duke opens up the ACC Coastal division, so each of these teams really they can't afford to lose. Miami has suffered three straight losses since a 4-1 beginning, while Virginia Tech has swung from great to poor, with no middle ground. The difference will be which Virginia Tech team shows up. Since I can't count on them, I'll pick Miami, but the Hokies have the better talent, if they bring it. MIAMI by four
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Owners of two of the better team nicknames face off, with second place in the Sun Belt on the line. The Hilltoppers are certainly the more capable team, but the Raiders are a sneaky bunch. I'll pick Western Kentucky, but this one could go down to the wire. WESTERN KENTUCKY by six
Friday Nov 2: Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: The Huskies upset the Beavers last week, and all of a sudden they are coming from a position of strength. If they do not suffer an emotional letdown after the "Beaver busting," the Huskies should win. WASHINGTON by eight
Top 25 games
#2 Oregon Ducks at #11 USC Trojans: The Trojans do not lose consecutive games too often, but it'll happen here. I don't think USC will upset the Ducks. Their defense is okay, but it's not strong enough to slow down the Ducks for long. USC can score, but they are a tamer team this year than in previous years, so I don't think they can keep pace with the Flying Ducks. OREGON by 18
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #3 Kansas State Wildcats The Cowboys are on a roll, but that roll comes to an end. The Wildcats are for real, and they have a Heisman front runner at quarterback. More impressive is their defense, which has slowed Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas Tech this season. A win here practically guarantees the Wildcats the Big XII title, albeit not actually (mathematically they could miss the crown, but not realistically, based upon their remaining schedule). KANSAS STATE by 23
Pittsburgh Panthers at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one won't be pretty, at least for Pitt fans. No matter who plays QB, the Irish will roll. NOTRE DAME by 34
Illinois Fighting Illini at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Illini are pathetic and the Buckeyes are beasts. This one will be more one-sided than the Pitt-Notre Dame game. OHIO STATE by lots
Ole Miss Rebels at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs need to win all of their remaining SEC games to win the division crown. They know it, and they're prepared. It's always hard to win in Athens, and this determined crew will make it much harder than usual. GEORGIA by 16
Missouri Tigers at #8 Florida Gators: Florida wants to bounce back from their tough loss to Georgia, and struggling Missouri is just the perfect patsy. FLORIDA by 24
#10 Clemson Tigers at Duke Blue Devils: In what may be a preview of the ACC Championship, Duke hosts the determined Clemson Tigers, who want to reach that ACC Championship game but know they need help -- the Seminoles beat them earlier, so Florida State has to lose to give Clemson a chance. Duke also wants to punch a ticket to the championship game, but they feel they stand a good chance if they win out. A loss here, though, makes it tougher. I think this will be a hard-fought close game, but I give a slight edge to the Tigers. CLEMSON by six
#13 Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones: Oklahoma is staring down a very long barrel in consideration for the Big XII title, but they are hoping to impress enough for a BCS at-large bid. A big win here would help. OKLAHOMA by 16
#14 Texas A&M Aggies at #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs were smothered by Alabama. an they bounce back? If they didn't face a team as tough as A&M, I might think so. A&M will stretch them, though, and after last week, the Bulldogs will break. TEXAS A&M by ten
San Diego State Aztecs at #15 Boise State Broncos: A win here removes the last major threat to Boise State winning the Mountain West. Since they don't play surging Air Force, they know they can't afford to lose a conference game. It starts here, though, and I think the owners of the blue turf will emerge victorious. BOISE STATE by 13
#24 Texas Longhorns at #17 Texas Tech Red Raiders: These two teams have the same records, but Texas is more suspect. Tech has lost to stronger teams, while Texas nearly lost to Kansas. I have to favor the Raisers, although the Longhorns' offense will stretch the weakened Tech defense. TEXAS TECH by four
#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at #18 Oregon State Beavers: This game could definitely go either way, but I think the Beavers will want to bounce back from last week's surprise in Washington. Expect the lead to swap a few times during this game until the Beavers lock it up late in the fourth quarter. OREGON STATE by eight
Arizona Wildcats at #19 UCLA Bruins: USC's loss, and expected loss against Oregon, opens the door for UCLA to officially win the Pac-12 South division this year (they won last year only because USC was on probation). While Arizona will be looking for their second consecutive upset, I don't think they'll get it. UCLA by thirteen
UMass Minutemen at #21 Northern Illinois Huskies: This game will be a breeze for the MAC co-leader. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 26
Texas-San Antonion Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: The Roadrunners need one more win to be bowl eligible, but I don't think they'll get it. Still, 5-7 won't be a bad record for their first season in FBS. LOUISIANA TECH by 34
Temple Owls at #23 Louisville Cardinals: The Cardinals are the only survivors of the Big East's "big three," when the Big East had the most unbeaten teams in FBS. Hard to believe that was only two weeks ago. One team has fallen each week, but since Louisville doesn't play a MAC team, they might be safe. Playing Temple is definitely a safety measure to maintain that unbeaten record. LOUISVILLE by 14
Akron Zips at #25 Kent State Golden Flashes: Akron trails in the MAC East, while Kent State leads the division. This was is an easy pick. KENT STATE by 24
Big Ten games
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers: If Denard Robinson plays, the Wolverines are an easy pick. Without him, it'll be harder. I'll pick them, just for the quality of their defense, but Minnesota is definitely hoping Robinson's injury is severe enough to keep him out. MICHIGAN by ??? (hard to project without knowing Robinson's status)
Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: I'm going for the upset here, as the Hoosiers offense has gained steam the past two games while Iowa's has sputtered. INDIANA by twelve
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans: After early high hopes, Andrew Maxwell is not coming along as quickly as the Spartans' coaching staff hoped. Nebraska is looking to win the Legends division, and a win here brings them one step closer. NEBRASKA by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers: Last week was an interruption in the continued improvement of Penn State, but they'll bounce back. After all, the Penn State players have been having to bounce back from adversity all year. PENN STATE by 18
Other Games of Interest
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks: It has been a disappointing year for the Razorbacks, while Tulsa is looking good. This non-conference game doesn't help Tulsa's title chances, but it might help their bid to leap into the Top 25. TULSA by 18
Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes The entire Pac-12 has been beating up on Colorado; it's Stanford's turn. STANFORD by 21
Texas State Bobcats at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies need to keep pace with Louisiana Tech in the WAC. 3-4 Texas State won't be an obstacle. UTAH STATE by 26
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: The Warhawks control their own destiny in the Sun Belt. They're already bowl eligible; the next step is winning the conference. This one won't do it; they need to beat Arkansas State next week. Still, it adds to their reputation. LOUISIANA-MONROE by 20
Hawaii Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs: Hawaii hasn't won a single Mountain West game all season. That streak will continue unabated. FRESNO STATE by 18
SMU Mustangs at UCF Golden Knights: Tulsa is rooting for UCF, because an SMU loss guarantees them the Conference USA West title if they beat Houston next week. Tulsa should get that wish, as UCF needs to keep wining in the conference, too. UCF by 16
FCS Game of the Week: Wagner Seahawks at Albany Great Danes: I'm going to attend this game, as the Danes will win the Northeast conference with a win here. Wagner's good, but the Danes defense has been killer. Add in an opportunistic offense, as well as an unbeaten home record, and Albany should get that crown. ALBANY by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #9 LSU Tigers: The Tigers got an extra week to prepare for this game, but I don't think it'll help. Yes, LSU upset the #1 Tide last season to capture the top spot, only to lose the rematch in the BCS National Championship game. This year the result will resemble the BCS title game and not the 9-6 snoozer from last year's regular season. Alabama will score often, while LSU will be distracted by the drug arrests of their current and former teammates this past week. ALABAMA by 16 to capture the SEC West crown
Will we have that many upsets this week? I don't know, but it's interesting to see if I can predict any of them.
Thursday games
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats: The Bobcats no longer have to be concerned about maintaining their perfect record. Now their focus shifts to regaining the division lead. Destroying doormat Eastern Michigan will be an important start. OHIO by 23
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes: The loss by Duke opens up the ACC Coastal division, so each of these teams really they can't afford to lose. Miami has suffered three straight losses since a 4-1 beginning, while Virginia Tech has swung from great to poor, with no middle ground. The difference will be which Virginia Tech team shows up. Since I can't count on them, I'll pick Miami, but the Hokies have the better talent, if they bring it. MIAMI by four
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Owners of two of the better team nicknames face off, with second place in the Sun Belt on the line. The Hilltoppers are certainly the more capable team, but the Raiders are a sneaky bunch. I'll pick Western Kentucky, but this one could go down to the wire. WESTERN KENTUCKY by six
Friday Nov 2: Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: The Huskies upset the Beavers last week, and all of a sudden they are coming from a position of strength. If they do not suffer an emotional letdown after the "Beaver busting," the Huskies should win. WASHINGTON by eight
Top 25 games
#2 Oregon Ducks at #11 USC Trojans: The Trojans do not lose consecutive games too often, but it'll happen here. I don't think USC will upset the Ducks. Their defense is okay, but it's not strong enough to slow down the Ducks for long. USC can score, but they are a tamer team this year than in previous years, so I don't think they can keep pace with the Flying Ducks. OREGON by 18
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #3 Kansas State Wildcats The Cowboys are on a roll, but that roll comes to an end. The Wildcats are for real, and they have a Heisman front runner at quarterback. More impressive is their defense, which has slowed Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas Tech this season. A win here practically guarantees the Wildcats the Big XII title, albeit not actually (mathematically they could miss the crown, but not realistically, based upon their remaining schedule). KANSAS STATE by 23
Pittsburgh Panthers at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one won't be pretty, at least for Pitt fans. No matter who plays QB, the Irish will roll. NOTRE DAME by 34
Illinois Fighting Illini at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Illini are pathetic and the Buckeyes are beasts. This one will be more one-sided than the Pitt-Notre Dame game. OHIO STATE by lots
Ole Miss Rebels at #7 Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs need to win all of their remaining SEC games to win the division crown. They know it, and they're prepared. It's always hard to win in Athens, and this determined crew will make it much harder than usual. GEORGIA by 16
Missouri Tigers at #8 Florida Gators: Florida wants to bounce back from their tough loss to Georgia, and struggling Missouri is just the perfect patsy. FLORIDA by 24
#10 Clemson Tigers at Duke Blue Devils: In what may be a preview of the ACC Championship, Duke hosts the determined Clemson Tigers, who want to reach that ACC Championship game but know they need help -- the Seminoles beat them earlier, so Florida State has to lose to give Clemson a chance. Duke also wants to punch a ticket to the championship game, but they feel they stand a good chance if they win out. A loss here, though, makes it tougher. I think this will be a hard-fought close game, but I give a slight edge to the Tigers. CLEMSON by six
#13 Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones: Oklahoma is staring down a very long barrel in consideration for the Big XII title, but they are hoping to impress enough for a BCS at-large bid. A big win here would help. OKLAHOMA by 16
#14 Texas A&M Aggies at #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs were smothered by Alabama. an they bounce back? If they didn't face a team as tough as A&M, I might think so. A&M will stretch them, though, and after last week, the Bulldogs will break. TEXAS A&M by ten
San Diego State Aztecs at #15 Boise State Broncos: A win here removes the last major threat to Boise State winning the Mountain West. Since they don't play surging Air Force, they know they can't afford to lose a conference game. It starts here, though, and I think the owners of the blue turf will emerge victorious. BOISE STATE by 13
#24 Texas Longhorns at #17 Texas Tech Red Raiders: These two teams have the same records, but Texas is more suspect. Tech has lost to stronger teams, while Texas nearly lost to Kansas. I have to favor the Raisers, although the Longhorns' offense will stretch the weakened Tech defense. TEXAS TECH by four
#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at #18 Oregon State Beavers: This game could definitely go either way, but I think the Beavers will want to bounce back from last week's surprise in Washington. Expect the lead to swap a few times during this game until the Beavers lock it up late in the fourth quarter. OREGON STATE by eight
Arizona Wildcats at #19 UCLA Bruins: USC's loss, and expected loss against Oregon, opens the door for UCLA to officially win the Pac-12 South division this year (they won last year only because USC was on probation). While Arizona will be looking for their second consecutive upset, I don't think they'll get it. UCLA by thirteen
UMass Minutemen at #21 Northern Illinois Huskies: This game will be a breeze for the MAC co-leader. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 26
Texas-San Antonion Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: The Roadrunners need one more win to be bowl eligible, but I don't think they'll get it. Still, 5-7 won't be a bad record for their first season in FBS. LOUISIANA TECH by 34
Temple Owls at #23 Louisville Cardinals: The Cardinals are the only survivors of the Big East's "big three," when the Big East had the most unbeaten teams in FBS. Hard to believe that was only two weeks ago. One team has fallen each week, but since Louisville doesn't play a MAC team, they might be safe. Playing Temple is definitely a safety measure to maintain that unbeaten record. LOUISVILLE by 14
Akron Zips at #25 Kent State Golden Flashes: Akron trails in the MAC East, while Kent State leads the division. This was is an easy pick. KENT STATE by 24
Big Ten games
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers: If Denard Robinson plays, the Wolverines are an easy pick. Without him, it'll be harder. I'll pick them, just for the quality of their defense, but Minnesota is definitely hoping Robinson's injury is severe enough to keep him out. MICHIGAN by ??? (hard to project without knowing Robinson's status)
Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: I'm going for the upset here, as the Hoosiers offense has gained steam the past two games while Iowa's has sputtered. INDIANA by twelve
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans: After early high hopes, Andrew Maxwell is not coming along as quickly as the Spartans' coaching staff hoped. Nebraska is looking to win the Legends division, and a win here brings them one step closer. NEBRASKA by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers: Last week was an interruption in the continued improvement of Penn State, but they'll bounce back. After all, the Penn State players have been having to bounce back from adversity all year. PENN STATE by 18
Other Games of Interest
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks: It has been a disappointing year for the Razorbacks, while Tulsa is looking good. This non-conference game doesn't help Tulsa's title chances, but it might help their bid to leap into the Top 25. TULSA by 18
Stanford Cardinal at Colorado Buffaloes The entire Pac-12 has been beating up on Colorado; it's Stanford's turn. STANFORD by 21
Texas State Bobcats at Utah State Aggies: The Aggies need to keep pace with Louisiana Tech in the WAC. 3-4 Texas State won't be an obstacle. UTAH STATE by 26
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks: The Warhawks control their own destiny in the Sun Belt. They're already bowl eligible; the next step is winning the conference. This one won't do it; they need to beat Arkansas State next week. Still, it adds to their reputation. LOUISIANA-MONROE by 20
Hawaii Warriors at Fresno State Bulldogs: Hawaii hasn't won a single Mountain West game all season. That streak will continue unabated. FRESNO STATE by 18
SMU Mustangs at UCF Golden Knights: Tulsa is rooting for UCF, because an SMU loss guarantees them the Conference USA West title if they beat Houston next week. Tulsa should get that wish, as UCF needs to keep wining in the conference, too. UCF by 16
FCS Game of the Week: Wagner Seahawks at Albany Great Danes: I'm going to attend this game, as the Danes will win the Northeast conference with a win here. Wagner's good, but the Danes defense has been killer. Add in an opportunistic offense, as well as an unbeaten home record, and Albany should get that crown. ALBANY by 16
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #9 LSU Tigers: The Tigers got an extra week to prepare for this game, but I don't think it'll help. Yes, LSU upset the #1 Tide last season to capture the top spot, only to lose the rematch in the BCS National Championship game. This year the result will resemble the BCS title game and not the 9-6 snoozer from last year's regular season. Alabama will score often, while LSU will be distracted by the drug arrests of their current and former teammates this past week. ALABAMA by 16 to capture the SEC West crown
NCAA 2012 Week 9 Top 25
The Big East may decide to stop playing MAC teams. After Cincy was knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens by Toledo, this week Kent State does the same thing to Rutgers. That leaves just Louisville, who nearly lost that distinction against Cincy. The Cardinals were fortunate, as FIVE teams lost their first game this week. We started the week with eleven unbeaten teams, and we end with six. Things are tightening up!
Since the Florida - Georgia game was played for a division title, I decided to start my divisional race portion a week earlier (it also gives me something to do while I wait for Hurricane Sandy to strike!) That section closes this column, after the Big Ten report.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1] : They slaughtered previously unbeaten Mississippi State, and proved that no team has the power of Alabama
2. Oregon Ducks (8-0) [2] : They scored 56 points in the first half, and played the entire second half with reserves. That's the power of the Ducks' offense
3. Kansas State Wildcats (8-0) [3] : They crushed Texas Tech to ensure their place atop the Big XII
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) [5] : They beat Oklahoma, although they needed a strong fourth quarter and help from a turnover. Still, they are 8-0 for the first time in over ten years.
5. Florida State Seminoles (8-1) [7] : A massive dismantling of Duke makes the Seminoles the favorite to capture the ACC crown
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) [6] : It took a little time to get going against Penn State, but they made a powerful statement
7. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) [11] : The Bulldogs won the Blooper Bowl
8. Florida Gators (7-1) [4] : The Gators looked terrible, committing five turnovers and 13 penalties in a mistake-filled match-up with Georgia. Neither team looked like a Top Ten team, but their previous game results keep them there.
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [9] : It's getting a little crowded with SEC teams in the bottom half of the Top Ten
10. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [14] : Nice win over Wake Forest keeps them in the ACC Atlantic division hunt
11. USC Trojans (6-2) [10] : Their loss to Arizona should have dropped them more, but there is a big gap between the Top Ten and the rest of the Top 25
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [15] : After losing two in a row, the Gamecocks finally won a game, but it wasn't easy
13. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [8] : They tied Notre Dame early in the fourth, but then the Irish took over. Let's see how the Sooners bounce back
14. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [18] : Strong win by the Aggies! They proved that the normally vaulted Auburn defense has disintegrated this season.
15. Boise State Broncos (7-1) [17] : Strong win for the Mountain West leader
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-1) [13] : You'd think a 31-point loss would drop a team farther than three positions. There are three considering factors: the Bulldogs strong performances in previous weeks, the weaknesses (in either strength of schedule or other factors) of the teams below them, and the fact that it was Alabama who they played
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-2) [12] : Drubbed by Kansas State proved they still have work to do to build a stable defense
18. Oregon State Beavers (6-1) [16] : Washington spoiled the hopes of the Beavers that they would be unbeaten going into their rivalry game against the Ducks
19. UCLA Bruins (6-2) [21] : Nice game against the Sun Devils
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-3) [19] : Their offense is keeping them in the Top 25, but another loss might remove them for good
21. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-1) [NR] : The MAC leader makes the Top 25, bolstered by strong wins by Toledo and Kent State
22. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-1) [26] : The offensive powerhouse enjoying their first season in the WAC cracks the Top 25
23. Louisville Cardinals (8-0) [24] : The only remaining unbeaten Big East team knows they have a target on their back
24. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [25] : They escaped a possible upset by Kansas that would have removed them from the Top 25
25. Kent State Golden Flashes (7-1) [NR] : The MAC spoiler of Rutgers gets onto the list for the first time all season
On the Edge: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-1), Toledo Rockets (8-1), Utah State Aggies (7-2), UCF Golden Knights (6-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3), Stanford Cardinal (6-2), Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3), Michigan Wolverines (5-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3), Wisconsin Badgers (5-3)
Dropped: TCU Horned Frogs [#20], Ohio Bobcats [#22], Rutgers Scarlet Knights [#23]
Big Ten Report
Nebraska's win added a third bowl eligible team to the conference
LEGENDS Division:
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2) : Martinez made some good plays, but the Huskers still sputtered at times. Consistency is key, and they need to find it
2. Northwestern Wildcats (7-2) : The Wildcats need to cut down on their mistakes. They have a fast offense and decent defense, but they keep hurting themselves
3. Michigan Wolverines (5-3) : I'd place them second, but I'm not sure how long Denard Robinson will be out injured. Bellomy proved that he wasn't ready to play, and if he has to start next week, the Golden Gophers might shock them.
4. Michigan State Spartans (5-4) : The Spartans repeated last season's regular season overtime win over Wisconsin, but Maxwell is still making some mental mistakes
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-4) : They stumbled badly against Northwestern
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) : They scored their first conference win against Purdue, and they may be a team on the rise.
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) : Clearly the most powerful and most consistent team in this division
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3) : They handed Ohio State everything they could handle in the first half, they just couldn't sustain it
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3) : They have trouble closing games
4. Indiana Hoosiers (3-5) : Their defeat of Illinois was their first conference win, and their offense is improving. I think it's too late for them to jump Wisconsin to play for the Big Ten Championship, but they should finish strong, and might become bowl eligible.
5. Purdue Boilermakers (3-5) : Their inconsistent play bit them this week, joining Illinois as the only team yet to beat a conference opponent.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6) : Speaking on behalf of all Illini fans, this season can't end soon enough. They have many of the same players they had last year, but penalties (especially false starts) show a lack of discipline. That was the problem that causing the firing of Ron Zook, and it doesn't look like Tim Beckman is doing much better.
Title Races:
ACC Atlantic: While NC State has a slim chance (and a tiebreaker lead over Florida State), it is basically a battle between Clemson and Florida State,. The Seminoles won their match-up, so they have the tiebreaker advantage, and Clemson still has to face NC State.
ACC Coastal: This one is still up for grabs. Every team except Virginia and North Carolina (due to probation) still has a mathematical chance to win, and there is a cramped four-way tie for conference record lead. Duke has the best chance, but watch out for Miami
Big XII: Kansas State holds the lead and advantages over Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They face Oklahoma State this weekend. A win there practically guarantees them the title.
Big East: Rutgers actually holds the lead, as they have played one more conference game. Syracuse is a threat, but it seems to be a race between Louisville and Rutgers.
Big Ten Legends: Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Northwestern. Michigan is in position, but Robinson's injury and upcoming games against Northwestern and Ohio State makes them unlikely. Northwestern has a chance, but they have to beat Michigan Nov 10th.
Big Ten Leaders: With the probation of both Ohio State and Penn State, the clear leaders in the division, the division is basically Wisconsin's to lose. Indiana is coming on, and a defeat of Wisconsin at home on Nov 10th would help.
Conference USA East: UCF has the lead and the tiebreaker advantage over East Carolina. Two more conference wins gives the title to UCF, and with upcoming games against UTEP and UAB, two cellar dwellers, they should get it no matter what happens against SMU.
Conference USA West: Tulsa holds the lead, but they are yet to play either SMU or Houston, their main competition. In fact, Tulsa ends the season with games against the three most dangerous conference teams: Houston, UCF, and SMU. This division could go to either the Cougars or Mustangs, especially if one of them can upset Tulsa.
MAC East: This is an interesting division. Half of the division are still in the hunt, while the other half are winless in the conference. Division leader Kent State hasn't yet played any of the three teams nipping at their heels: Bowling Green, Ohio, and Miami Ohio. Ohio lost to Miami Ohio and haven't played Bowling Green and Bowling Green beat Miami Ohio, so tiebreakers may be necessary to settle this one.
MAC West: Northern Illinois and Toledo are both unbeaten in the conference. Ball State lost to the Huskies and plays Toledo next Tuesday. If the Rockets beat them, Ball State has no chance.
Mountain West: Boise leads, but there are three teams close behind. Boise has already beaten Fresno and faces San Diego State this weekend. If Boise wins that one, they can basically coast, as neither Hawaii nor Colorado State will challenge them. That would give them the conference title even before they play Nevada.
Pac-12 North: The Beavers loss gives the edge to Oregon. Mathematically they can still fail to win the division, but I don't see how USC or Stanford can push them. Oregon should still be unbeaten when they meet the Beavers on Nov 24th in Corvallis.
Pac-12 South: USC still leads, but Washington has given UCLA a chance. Arizona State still has a chance, too, but their loss to UCLA means they must beat USC or they won't really have a chance.
SEC East: Georgia's defeat of Florida makes it interesting, as the top three teams have 1-1 records against each other. Florida has only one more conference game, against Missouri this week, so a win there kills South Carolina's chances. Georgia would have to win their remaining conference games against Ole Miss and Auburn; the latter should be easy. Thus, if Georgia beats Ole Miss this week, Florida's division hopes may be gone.
SEC West: This is Alabama's division to win. A victory over LSU this week seals it. It looks like the SEC may have the first crowns awarded this season.
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe holds the edge, as they've already beaten Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. If they beat Arkansas State next Thursday, it would take TWO upset losses to keep them from the conference title.
WAC: This is a battle between Utah State and Louisiana Tech, both unbeaten in conference play. San Jose State has a slim chance, but they need to win out and have Louisiana Tech beat Utah State.
Since the Florida - Georgia game was played for a division title, I decided to start my divisional race portion a week earlier (it also gives me something to do while I wait for Hurricane Sandy to strike!) That section closes this column, after the Big Ten report.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1] : They slaughtered previously unbeaten Mississippi State, and proved that no team has the power of Alabama
2. Oregon Ducks (8-0) [2] : They scored 56 points in the first half, and played the entire second half with reserves. That's the power of the Ducks' offense
3. Kansas State Wildcats (8-0) [3] : They crushed Texas Tech to ensure their place atop the Big XII
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0) [5] : They beat Oklahoma, although they needed a strong fourth quarter and help from a turnover. Still, they are 8-0 for the first time in over ten years.
5. Florida State Seminoles (8-1) [7] : A massive dismantling of Duke makes the Seminoles the favorite to capture the ACC crown
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) [6] : It took a little time to get going against Penn State, but they made a powerful statement
7. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) [11] : The Bulldogs won the Blooper Bowl
8. Florida Gators (7-1) [4] : The Gators looked terrible, committing five turnovers and 13 penalties in a mistake-filled match-up with Georgia. Neither team looked like a Top Ten team, but their previous game results keep them there.
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [9] : It's getting a little crowded with SEC teams in the bottom half of the Top Ten
10. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [14] : Nice win over Wake Forest keeps them in the ACC Atlantic division hunt
11. USC Trojans (6-2) [10] : Their loss to Arizona should have dropped them more, but there is a big gap between the Top Ten and the rest of the Top 25
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2) [15] : After losing two in a row, the Gamecocks finally won a game, but it wasn't easy
13. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [8] : They tied Notre Dame early in the fourth, but then the Irish took over. Let's see how the Sooners bounce back
14. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [18] : Strong win by the Aggies! They proved that the normally vaulted Auburn defense has disintegrated this season.
15. Boise State Broncos (7-1) [17] : Strong win for the Mountain West leader
16. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-1) [13] : You'd think a 31-point loss would drop a team farther than three positions. There are three considering factors: the Bulldogs strong performances in previous weeks, the weaknesses (in either strength of schedule or other factors) of the teams below them, and the fact that it was Alabama who they played
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-2) [12] : Drubbed by Kansas State proved they still have work to do to build a stable defense
18. Oregon State Beavers (6-1) [16] : Washington spoiled the hopes of the Beavers that they would be unbeaten going into their rivalry game against the Ducks
19. UCLA Bruins (6-2) [21] : Nice game against the Sun Devils
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-3) [19] : Their offense is keeping them in the Top 25, but another loss might remove them for good
21. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-1) [NR] : The MAC leader makes the Top 25, bolstered by strong wins by Toledo and Kent State
22. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7-1) [26] : The offensive powerhouse enjoying their first season in the WAC cracks the Top 25
23. Louisville Cardinals (8-0) [24] : The only remaining unbeaten Big East team knows they have a target on their back
24. Texas Longhorns (6-2) [25] : They escaped a possible upset by Kansas that would have removed them from the Top 25
25. Kent State Golden Flashes (7-1) [NR] : The MAC spoiler of Rutgers gets onto the list for the first time all season
On the Edge: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-1), Toledo Rockets (8-1), Utah State Aggies (7-2), UCF Golden Knights (6-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (6-3), Stanford Cardinal (6-2), Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3), Michigan Wolverines (5-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3), Wisconsin Badgers (5-3)
Dropped: TCU Horned Frogs [#20], Ohio Bobcats [#22], Rutgers Scarlet Knights [#23]
Big Ten Report
Nebraska's win added a third bowl eligible team to the conference
LEGENDS Division:
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-2) : Martinez made some good plays, but the Huskers still sputtered at times. Consistency is key, and they need to find it
2. Northwestern Wildcats (7-2) : The Wildcats need to cut down on their mistakes. They have a fast offense and decent defense, but they keep hurting themselves
3. Michigan Wolverines (5-3) : I'd place them second, but I'm not sure how long Denard Robinson will be out injured. Bellomy proved that he wasn't ready to play, and if he has to start next week, the Golden Gophers might shock them.
4. Michigan State Spartans (5-4) : The Spartans repeated last season's regular season overtime win over Wisconsin, but Maxwell is still making some mental mistakes
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-4) : They stumbled badly against Northwestern
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-3) : They scored their first conference win against Purdue, and they may be a team on the rise.
LEADERS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) : Clearly the most powerful and most consistent team in this division
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3) : They handed Ohio State everything they could handle in the first half, they just couldn't sustain it
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3) : They have trouble closing games
4. Indiana Hoosiers (3-5) : Their defeat of Illinois was their first conference win, and their offense is improving. I think it's too late for them to jump Wisconsin to play for the Big Ten Championship, but they should finish strong, and might become bowl eligible.
5. Purdue Boilermakers (3-5) : Their inconsistent play bit them this week, joining Illinois as the only team yet to beat a conference opponent.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6) : Speaking on behalf of all Illini fans, this season can't end soon enough. They have many of the same players they had last year, but penalties (especially false starts) show a lack of discipline. That was the problem that causing the firing of Ron Zook, and it doesn't look like Tim Beckman is doing much better.
Title Races:
ACC Atlantic: While NC State has a slim chance (and a tiebreaker lead over Florida State), it is basically a battle between Clemson and Florida State,. The Seminoles won their match-up, so they have the tiebreaker advantage, and Clemson still has to face NC State.
ACC Coastal: This one is still up for grabs. Every team except Virginia and North Carolina (due to probation) still has a mathematical chance to win, and there is a cramped four-way tie for conference record lead. Duke has the best chance, but watch out for Miami
Big XII: Kansas State holds the lead and advantages over Oklahoma and Texas Tech. They face Oklahoma State this weekend. A win there practically guarantees them the title.
Big East: Rutgers actually holds the lead, as they have played one more conference game. Syracuse is a threat, but it seems to be a race between Louisville and Rutgers.
Big Ten Legends: Nebraska holds the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Northwestern. Michigan is in position, but Robinson's injury and upcoming games against Northwestern and Ohio State makes them unlikely. Northwestern has a chance, but they have to beat Michigan Nov 10th.
Big Ten Leaders: With the probation of both Ohio State and Penn State, the clear leaders in the division, the division is basically Wisconsin's to lose. Indiana is coming on, and a defeat of Wisconsin at home on Nov 10th would help.
Conference USA East: UCF has the lead and the tiebreaker advantage over East Carolina. Two more conference wins gives the title to UCF, and with upcoming games against UTEP and UAB, two cellar dwellers, they should get it no matter what happens against SMU.
Conference USA West: Tulsa holds the lead, but they are yet to play either SMU or Houston, their main competition. In fact, Tulsa ends the season with games against the three most dangerous conference teams: Houston, UCF, and SMU. This division could go to either the Cougars or Mustangs, especially if one of them can upset Tulsa.
MAC East: This is an interesting division. Half of the division are still in the hunt, while the other half are winless in the conference. Division leader Kent State hasn't yet played any of the three teams nipping at their heels: Bowling Green, Ohio, and Miami Ohio. Ohio lost to Miami Ohio and haven't played Bowling Green and Bowling Green beat Miami Ohio, so tiebreakers may be necessary to settle this one.
MAC West: Northern Illinois and Toledo are both unbeaten in the conference. Ball State lost to the Huskies and plays Toledo next Tuesday. If the Rockets beat them, Ball State has no chance.
Mountain West: Boise leads, but there are three teams close behind. Boise has already beaten Fresno and faces San Diego State this weekend. If Boise wins that one, they can basically coast, as neither Hawaii nor Colorado State will challenge them. That would give them the conference title even before they play Nevada.
Pac-12 North: The Beavers loss gives the edge to Oregon. Mathematically they can still fail to win the division, but I don't see how USC or Stanford can push them. Oregon should still be unbeaten when they meet the Beavers on Nov 24th in Corvallis.
Pac-12 South: USC still leads, but Washington has given UCLA a chance. Arizona State still has a chance, too, but their loss to UCLA means they must beat USC or they won't really have a chance.
SEC East: Georgia's defeat of Florida makes it interesting, as the top three teams have 1-1 records against each other. Florida has only one more conference game, against Missouri this week, so a win there kills South Carolina's chances. Georgia would have to win their remaining conference games against Ole Miss and Auburn; the latter should be easy. Thus, if Georgia beats Ole Miss this week, Florida's division hopes may be gone.
SEC West: This is Alabama's division to win. A victory over LSU this week seals it. It looks like the SEC may have the first crowns awarded this season.
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe holds the edge, as they've already beaten Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. If they beat Arkansas State next Thursday, it would take TWO upset losses to keep them from the conference title.
WAC: This is a battle between Utah State and Louisiana Tech, both unbeaten in conference play. San Jose State has a slim chance, but they need to win out and have Louisiana Tech beat Utah State.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 8 picks
I'm picking quite a few visiting teams, so my alternating good v poor weeks could come into play, and many of my picks lose. I'll take that chance.
Thursday night: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Here I definitely favor the home team. The Bucs defense has looked suspect lately, while the Vikings' defense is toughening up (perhaps in preparation of playing the Bears). When he is "on", Josh Freeman is a potent quarterback, but he is still inconsistent. That's not to say that Christian Ponder is any better, but Minnesota has a much better running game, which might make the difference in this game. VIKES, 27-24
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: It's here that the Falcons' unbeaten record could be jeopardized, especially if this is a close game. The Eagles have won all but one of the close games they have played, although when they lose, they lose big. They lose big because they have committed more turnovers than any other team this season, and the biggest offender is QB Michael Vick himself. If Vick does not do a better job of protecting the ball, the Eagles are doomed, as you do not want to give the Falcons offense any advantages. I think the Eagles will commit too many turnovers to win, and so it won't be close. FALCONS, 24-16
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: The best defense in the league against an offense struggling, and whose quarterback is losing confidence. Watch for this game to potentially have the biggest margin of victory of the week. BEARS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts aren't playing great, but the Titans are playing abysmally, especially on defense. That gives Andrew Luck and company a chance to score lots of points. Could the Titans win at home? Only if they straighten out their defense, and I don't think they will. COLTS, 30-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers: With Maurice Jones-Drew on the Questionable to Play list, and Green Bay's offense fired up again, I don't see the Jags winning this game. The Jags already have the least proficient offense in the league when MJD was playing, and their defense is weak enough to allow Green Bay to score. PACK, 31-16
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Here's a home team who could win, but they are so messed up that they don't deserve to win. Miami's defense is working, and I don't think Tebow will succeed on draws and running plays as much as he has. Without his success to spell Sanchez, the Jets offense is weak. DOLPHINS, 23-20
New England Patriots at St Louis Rams: The Rams offense is struggling, but their defense is pretty good. The question this week is, Are they good enough to stop the Patriots? Brady and company are not scoring as much as they have in previous years, but they are capable of moving the ball in different ways. That could confuse the Rams enough to give the Patriots a chance, but they start the second half behind the home team. PATS, 27-24
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Brandon Wheeden has the Browns offense working, but the defense is still suspect. Given what the Chargers are capable of generating on offense, that defense will put the Browns too far behind. CHARGERS, 27-20
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: Dare I go for four visiting teams in a row? Perhaps, but I actually think Detroit can pull this one out. Granted, their only score against the Bears was a "gimmee", but they were consistently getting better in the second half. They may have had three red zone turnovers, but that was against a tough Bears defense. The Seahawks defense is pretty tough, but not they don't cause as many turnovers as the Bears do. Moreover, the Lions defense was good enough to stop the Bears from scoring in the second half. If they do that against Seattle, the Lions will win with a fourth quarter surge. LIONS, 26-20
Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers: On paper, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. On the field, though, the Steelers have an advantage. RGIII is doing great things, but the Steelers defense know how to eye quarterbacks and predict what he's going to do. The Redskins defense isn't strong, so this will be a game where Big Ben can get back on track. Further, the return of Rashad Mendenhall has rejuvenated the Steelers running game, and they will ground out the yardage. STEELERS, 27-23
Sunday late games
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Dallas knocked off the Giants earlier this season, so this is a vengeance game. Few teams play vengeance games better than the Giants. They have all phases of their team working, while the Cowboys are still inconsistent on offense; their best offensive performance of the season was their opener against the Giants! Their second best performance was against the Ravens, but injuries were starting to affect their defense in that game. I don't think Dallas can expect to do as well this week. GIANTS, 27-17
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: The two worst teams in the AFC West, and two of the worst teams in the NFL, face off. The winner of this game might be the team that makes the fewest mistakes. For the season, Oakland has the edge in both offense and defense, but they also have plenty of costly penalties. If the Raiders get careless, they could lose, but I'll pick them (yikes! another visiting team!). RAIDERS, 24-23
Sunday night: New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos: The Saints have won two in a row and seem to be righting the ship. They also welcome back Joe Vitt from his bounty-gate suspension. However, taking over as interim coach might upset the flow that the makeshift coaching staff had finally established. Combine that with the difficulties of playing at Denver, and the recent success of Peyton Manning, and things don't look good for the Saints extending that winning streak. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: This might be the visiting team I am most confident will win. The quarterback issues make Arizona a poor pick, especially against the tight 49ers defense. The 49ers offense is improving as well, and are likely to find holes in the Cards defense. 49ERS, 20-16
Thursday night: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Here I definitely favor the home team. The Bucs defense has looked suspect lately, while the Vikings' defense is toughening up (perhaps in preparation of playing the Bears). When he is "on", Josh Freeman is a potent quarterback, but he is still inconsistent. That's not to say that Christian Ponder is any better, but Minnesota has a much better running game, which might make the difference in this game. VIKES, 27-24
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: It's here that the Falcons' unbeaten record could be jeopardized, especially if this is a close game. The Eagles have won all but one of the close games they have played, although when they lose, they lose big. They lose big because they have committed more turnovers than any other team this season, and the biggest offender is QB Michael Vick himself. If Vick does not do a better job of protecting the ball, the Eagles are doomed, as you do not want to give the Falcons offense any advantages. I think the Eagles will commit too many turnovers to win, and so it won't be close. FALCONS, 24-16
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: The best defense in the league against an offense struggling, and whose quarterback is losing confidence. Watch for this game to potentially have the biggest margin of victory of the week. BEARS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts aren't playing great, but the Titans are playing abysmally, especially on defense. That gives Andrew Luck and company a chance to score lots of points. Could the Titans win at home? Only if they straighten out their defense, and I don't think they will. COLTS, 30-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers: With Maurice Jones-Drew on the Questionable to Play list, and Green Bay's offense fired up again, I don't see the Jags winning this game. The Jags already have the least proficient offense in the league when MJD was playing, and their defense is weak enough to allow Green Bay to score. PACK, 31-16
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Here's a home team who could win, but they are so messed up that they don't deserve to win. Miami's defense is working, and I don't think Tebow will succeed on draws and running plays as much as he has. Without his success to spell Sanchez, the Jets offense is weak. DOLPHINS, 23-20
New England Patriots at St Louis Rams: The Rams offense is struggling, but their defense is pretty good. The question this week is, Are they good enough to stop the Patriots? Brady and company are not scoring as much as they have in previous years, but they are capable of moving the ball in different ways. That could confuse the Rams enough to give the Patriots a chance, but they start the second half behind the home team. PATS, 27-24
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Brandon Wheeden has the Browns offense working, but the defense is still suspect. Given what the Chargers are capable of generating on offense, that defense will put the Browns too far behind. CHARGERS, 27-20
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions: Dare I go for four visiting teams in a row? Perhaps, but I actually think Detroit can pull this one out. Granted, their only score against the Bears was a "gimmee", but they were consistently getting better in the second half. They may have had three red zone turnovers, but that was against a tough Bears defense. The Seahawks defense is pretty tough, but not they don't cause as many turnovers as the Bears do. Moreover, the Lions defense was good enough to stop the Bears from scoring in the second half. If they do that against Seattle, the Lions will win with a fourth quarter surge. LIONS, 26-20
Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers: On paper, these two teams are fairly evenly matched. On the field, though, the Steelers have an advantage. RGIII is doing great things, but the Steelers defense know how to eye quarterbacks and predict what he's going to do. The Redskins defense isn't strong, so this will be a game where Big Ben can get back on track. Further, the return of Rashad Mendenhall has rejuvenated the Steelers running game, and they will ground out the yardage. STEELERS, 27-23
Sunday late games
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys Dallas knocked off the Giants earlier this season, so this is a vengeance game. Few teams play vengeance games better than the Giants. They have all phases of their team working, while the Cowboys are still inconsistent on offense; their best offensive performance of the season was their opener against the Giants! Their second best performance was against the Ravens, but injuries were starting to affect their defense in that game. I don't think Dallas can expect to do as well this week. GIANTS, 27-17
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: The two worst teams in the AFC West, and two of the worst teams in the NFL, face off. The winner of this game might be the team that makes the fewest mistakes. For the season, Oakland has the edge in both offense and defense, but they also have plenty of costly penalties. If the Raiders get careless, they could lose, but I'll pick them (yikes! another visiting team!). RAIDERS, 24-23
Sunday night: New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos: The Saints have won two in a row and seem to be righting the ship. They also welcome back Joe Vitt from his bounty-gate suspension. However, taking over as interim coach might upset the flow that the makeshift coaching staff had finally established. Combine that with the difficulties of playing at Denver, and the recent success of Peyton Manning, and things don't look good for the Saints extending that winning streak. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: This might be the visiting team I am most confident will win. The quarterback issues make Arizona a poor pick, especially against the tight 49ers defense. The 49ers offense is improving as well, and are likely to find holes in the Cards defense. 49ERS, 20-16
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 7 power rankings
The AFC still trails the NFC in achievement. There are now three teams with winning records in the AFC, an increase of one from last week, but the seeming collapse of Baltimore's defense makes me question how long they will be winning. It's certainly an NFC-heavy season this year.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Chicago Bears (5-1) [2] : Technically, the shut out the Lions; that last minute score was due to the Bears backing off because they knew they had the game won. Their defense is stiff and quick. They may not sack the quarterback often, but they pursue the ball and frequently tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. They also anticipate well on pass plays. This is one tough team.
2. Houston Texans (6-1) [3] : They tore apart the Baltimore Ravens, leaving no doubt about who is the top team in the AFC. They have the third stingiest defense in the league, behind Chicago and the 49ers, and the offense moves well, too.
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team in the league, the play by Matt Ryan is still a bit inconsistent. If their offense can get consistent, they will be a real threat.
4. New York Giants (5-2) [4] : The Giants have had the most productive offense in the NFC throughout the season, and Eli Manning's name keeps appearing near the top of everyone's list of best QBs in the league. With their tough defense, they are a challenge for anyone outside the NFC East. After two division losses, the Giants won one against an NFC East opponent, so even teams in that division should be worried.
5. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) [6] : A stingy defense and strong running game keeps San Fran in games. When Smith connects with a receiver, that just makes things worse for their opponents.
6. New England Patriots (4-3) [7] : The Patriots still play close games, but at least they are winning them
7. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) [8] : The Vikings don't have the best offense in the division (Green Bay does) and they don't have the best defense in the division (Chicago does), but the combination of their two squads is potent.
8. Green Bay Packers (4-3) [12] : Two strong offensive performances makes it seem like the Pack is back
9. Denver Broncos (3-3) [11] : Move up two spots during a bye week? That shows what is happening with the top teams
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [5] : The collapse of the defense this week shows the impact of injuries. Since those two players are out for the rest of the season, the Ravens may continue to fall.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) [17] : The running game was very potent, thanks to the return of Rashad Mendenhall. The defense is still good, so the Steelers may be a team on the rise.
12. San Diego Chargers (3-3) [15] : Another bye team that moved up
13. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) [9] : Their offense was really stopped by the 49ers. There is room for them to improve, but Russell Wilson needs to gain some consistency.
14. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) [10] : The Vikings knocked them down, and uninjured quarterbacks are becoming a concern
15. Washington Redskins (3-4) [13] : They lost to the Giants, but RGIII and company continue to rack up yardage
16. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-4) [14] : The Saints scored a lot against them, so their defense may be suspect
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
Once again, all of the NFC divisions are ranked higher than the AFC divisions
1. NFC North [1] : Three teams in the Top Ten can't be beaten by any other division. Detroit brings this division down a bit, but there is room for improvement
2. NFC West [2] : Three teams with winning records matches the NFC North, but some of the teams in this division seem to be falling instead of improving
3. NFC East [4] : This division has only one team with a losing record, but half of them have negative point differentials. That is usually an indication of weakness. Only the Giants have a winning non-conference record.
4. NFC South [3] : New Orleans is on the upswing, but the future of Tampa Bay is in doubt.
5. AFC North [5] : Baltimore's defensive losses could drop this division
6. AFC East [6] : Pats remain the best in the division. If Miami gets consistent, they could move up
7. AFC West [7] : Denver and San Diego breathe some life into this division, but they need to get better to really boost this division
8. AFC South [8] : Houston remains the only highlight of this division
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Chicago Bears (5-1) [2] : Technically, the shut out the Lions; that last minute score was due to the Bears backing off because they knew they had the game won. Their defense is stiff and quick. They may not sack the quarterback often, but they pursue the ball and frequently tackle at or behind the line of scrimmage. They also anticipate well on pass plays. This is one tough team.
2. Houston Texans (6-1) [3] : They tore apart the Baltimore Ravens, leaving no doubt about who is the top team in the AFC. They have the third stingiest defense in the league, behind Chicago and the 49ers, and the offense moves well, too.
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team in the league, the play by Matt Ryan is still a bit inconsistent. If their offense can get consistent, they will be a real threat.
4. New York Giants (5-2) [4] : The Giants have had the most productive offense in the NFC throughout the season, and Eli Manning's name keeps appearing near the top of everyone's list of best QBs in the league. With their tough defense, they are a challenge for anyone outside the NFC East. After two division losses, the Giants won one against an NFC East opponent, so even teams in that division should be worried.
5. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) [6] : A stingy defense and strong running game keeps San Fran in games. When Smith connects with a receiver, that just makes things worse for their opponents.
6. New England Patriots (4-3) [7] : The Patriots still play close games, but at least they are winning them
7. Minnesota Vikings (5-2) [8] : The Vikings don't have the best offense in the division (Green Bay does) and they don't have the best defense in the division (Chicago does), but the combination of their two squads is potent.
8. Green Bay Packers (4-3) [12] : Two strong offensive performances makes it seem like the Pack is back
9. Denver Broncos (3-3) [11] : Move up two spots during a bye week? That shows what is happening with the top teams
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [5] : The collapse of the defense this week shows the impact of injuries. Since those two players are out for the rest of the season, the Ravens may continue to fall.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3) [17] : The running game was very potent, thanks to the return of Rashad Mendenhall. The defense is still good, so the Steelers may be a team on the rise.
12. San Diego Chargers (3-3) [15] : Another bye team that moved up
13. Seattle Seahawks (4-3) [9] : Their offense was really stopped by the 49ers. There is room for them to improve, but Russell Wilson needs to gain some consistency.
14. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) [10] : The Vikings knocked them down, and uninjured quarterbacks are becoming a concern
15. Washington Redskins (3-4) [13] : They lost to the Giants, but RGIII and company continue to rack up yardage
16. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-4) [14] : The Saints scored a lot against them, so their defense may be suspect
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
Once again, all of the NFC divisions are ranked higher than the AFC divisions
1. NFC North [1] : Three teams in the Top Ten can't be beaten by any other division. Detroit brings this division down a bit, but there is room for improvement
2. NFC West [2] : Three teams with winning records matches the NFC North, but some of the teams in this division seem to be falling instead of improving
3. NFC East [4] : This division has only one team with a losing record, but half of them have negative point differentials. That is usually an indication of weakness. Only the Giants have a winning non-conference record.
4. NFC South [3] : New Orleans is on the upswing, but the future of Tampa Bay is in doubt.
5. AFC North [5] : Baltimore's defensive losses could drop this division
6. AFC East [6] : Pats remain the best in the division. If Miami gets consistent, they could move up
7. AFC West [7] : Denver and San Diego breathe some life into this division, but they need to get better to really boost this division
8. AFC South [8] : Houston remains the only highlight of this division
NCAA 2012 Week 9 picks
Once again a Sun Belt contest begins the week. Since it doesn't feature the Sun Belt teams making the biggest splash this season, I'll again skip it.
Thurs Oct 25: #14 Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake has played some good games, but they are too inconsistent to expect them to beat the Tigers. Clemson is a force in the ACC; not the dominating force that Florida State is, but a consistent winner who outplays opponents. CLEMSON by thirteen
Fri Oct 26
Cincinnati Bearcats at #24 Louisville Cardinals: Cincy suffered their first loss against non-conference Toledo. Could they suffer two losses in a row? Louisville seems to be the better team, but I remember the last time we had three unbeaten Big East teams this late into the season. Each team lost to another, and the Big East title came down to a three-way tiebreaker. Somehow, I think the same thing will happen. Cincy hosts Rutgers later and Rutgers hosts Louisville, so I'll go with the home teams to cause our confusion. I still think Cincy will fight hard to prevent a second consecutive loss, and might pull off the upset. LOUISVILLE by four
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons: Air Force has struggled outside the conference, but they've been stiff competition within it. Nevada has been a strong team all year. The Wolf Pack is the easy pick, but don't expect Air Force to make it easy for them. NEVADA by eight
Top 25
#13 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Bulldogs have accumulated the best record they have ever had, but their winning streak is over. Alabama is just too tough for everyone, and the Bulldogs are just the latest victims. ALABAMA by 20
Colorado Buffaloes at #2 Oregon Ducks: This may be the most one-sided game of the day. Colorado has not been a tough competitor this season, and their defense is suspect. Expect at least 55 points from the Ducks. OREGON by lots
#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Kansas State Wildcats: Could the only unbeaten team in the Big XII suffer their first loss? It's possible, but I don't think so. The Wildcats have a decent defense, which could slow the Red Raiders' attack. The Tech defense has slowed some strong teams, but the three overtime squeaker against TCU last week showed that Tech, a team not used to a good defense, still has some work to do on that squad. KANSAS STATE by ten
#4 Florida Gators v #11 Georgia Bulldogs: If this game was played between the hedges, the Bulldogs might stand a better chance. Playing at a neutral location, though, firmly gives the edge to Florida. The Gators are trying to prove that they the best in the SEC East, and a win here gives them a two-game lead in the division race, setting up their desired contest against Alabama for the SEC title. FLORIDA by fifteen
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: The best teams in the Leaders division, and possibly in the entire Big Ten conference, face off this week. Penn State has been looking better each week, but Ohio State toughens against strong opponents. Weak ones have caught them by surprise this season, but the Buckeyes stiffen against stiff competition. OHIO STATE by six
Duke Blue Devils at #7 Florida State Seminoles: The surprising Duke Blue Devils lead the ACC Coastal division. More surprisingly, they would still lead even after this loss, regardless of whether Miami or North Carolina win, due to tiebreaker advantages. They'll need those advantages, because I don't see Duke emerging victorious here. The Seminoles have a better offense, better defense, and better special teams than Duke. Something really weird would have to happen for Florida State to lose this one. FLORIDA STATE by sixteen
#10 USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats: This has not been a good Pac-12 season for the Wildcats, and the Trojans will continue their woes. USC by 18
Tennessee Volunteers at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks haven't won a game since they smothered Georgia. They need to prevent a third straight loss. I think struggling Tennessee is the best opponent for them to regain their footing. SOUTH CAROLINA by 21
#16 Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies: The Beavers are chasing state rival Oregon for the Pac-12 North title, and they don't want to lose pace until the two square off Nov 24th. Washington won't give them much of a problem. OREGON STATE by 16
#17 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: The best Mountain West team against the worst. This one is easy to pick. BOISE STATE by 31
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers: Normally competitive Auburn is languishing at the bottom of the SEC. It's an unfamiliar position for them. They'd like to get out of it, but their offense stinks and their normally reliable defense is struggling. The Aggies aren't great, but they are powerful enough to kick Auburn butt. TEXAS A&M by 20
#21 UCLA Bruins at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: UCLA had last week off, and they may have engineered a game plan to get them past the Sun Devils. However, after last week's loss, I think the Sun Devils will tweak their own game plan, and get the offense moving better. ARIZONA STATE by seven
#22 Ohio Bobcats at Miami Ohio Redhawks: Ohio continues their run through the MAC, looking for their first unbeaten season. They stand a good chance, as they don't face either Toledo or Northern Illinois until the MAC Championship, but they have to finish the season against Kent State. They should be unbeaten going into that game, though. OHIO by nine
Kent State Golden Flashes at #23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of the 6-1 (4-0 in MAC play) Golden Flashes, they face unbeaten Rutgers. A MAC team knocked off an unbeaten Big East last week. Could history repeat itself? Rutgers hopes not, but the MAC is a tough conference this season. I'll pick Rutgers, but watch out for Kent State. RUTGERS by three
#25 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: Easy game for Texas, as Kansas finds itself in a comfortable spot -- the basement of the Big XII. TEXAS by twenty
Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has two conference losses, but Iowa actually has a NEGATIVE point differential among conference opponents. Northwestern has faced some tougher opponents this season, and emerged stronger. Iowa is still too inconsistent for me to show much confidence. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini: This is a game the Illini might win. They're at home, and despite an offensive surge against Ohio State, Indiana has not been sharp. To win, Illinois has to get their offense going, as it has been pathetic. It's a longshot, but this is Illinois' best shot for a win, so I have to go for the long shot. ILLINOIS by four
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers: Michigan State is in free fall. Their defense still has power, but the offense is sputtering again. Wisconsin's offense has improved, not relying so much on a struggling Monte Ball. WISCONSIN by eight
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota has Illinois' disease. They played well prior to conference play, but a deficit offense has lost them every Big Ten game. That will continue, despite a rather anemic offense from Purdue. Purdue's offense has also shrunk since Big Ten play began, but they've shown flashes of strength, while Minnesota has really collapsed against conference opponents. PURDUE by four
Other Games of Interest
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: Western Michigan has collapsed after a decent start to the season, which diminishes Illinois' only FBS victory. Northern Illinois is running through MAC opponents to battle Toledo for the MAC West title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 18
NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels: NC State has been a bit of a surprise, but North Carolina has the offensive power to destroy their state rival. The Wolfpack defense has been good, but it's not good enough to slow the behemoth that is the Tar Heels offense this season. NORTH CAROLINA by eleven
Utah State Aggies at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners: UTSA has played decently in their first FBS season, but they played lots of FCS opponents early. WAC play is proving tougher for them, and they have to play the conference-leading Aggies this week. That won't help UTSA's FBS record. UTAH STATE by 16
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos: Fresno has really caught fire the past few weeks, while New Mexico finds themselves mired in mediocrity this season. That may be a normal position for New Mexico, but that won't stop them from fighting. It won't prove enough, though. FRESNO STATE by 18
Toledo Rockets at Buffalo Bulls: Toledo keeps pace with the Huskies by trouncing Buffalo. No letdown after their defeat of Cincy last week. TOLEDO by 20
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones: Both of these are teams who impressed during non-conference play and have been less than impressive during conference play. Who will right their ship this week? It's Baylor's offense against Iowa State's defense. In cases like that, I usually favor the defense, especially when they are the home team. IOWA STATE by four
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies: Tech continues their march to compete with Utah State for the conference title. LOUISIANA TECH by 30
UCF Golden Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd: We've heard quite a bit about UCF this season, so they are the obvious favorite. However, I think this game will be closer than most people would expect. Marshall is no slouch, despite a 3-4 record, and these two teams match up well. I'll pick UCF to continue their run though Conference USA, but watch out! UCF by four
FCS Game of the Week: Southern Illinois Salukis at North Dakota State Bison: Two leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference face off, and we'll get to see how they really fare. North Dakota State has been an offensive monster this season, while Southern Illinois' play is more conservative. The winner matches up well to keep pace with conference leader Indiana State, who beat both of these teams. The loser obviously falls dangerously back in the conference. I like the Bison offense to roll in this one. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by eleven
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 Oklahoma Sooners: If this game were played in South Bend, it would be a tough pick. However, the Sooners have been exploding after a slow start to the season. Add that momentum to the home crowd fervor, and I have to favor the Sooners in this matchup. OKLAHOMA by ten
Thurs Oct 25: #14 Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake has played some good games, but they are too inconsistent to expect them to beat the Tigers. Clemson is a force in the ACC; not the dominating force that Florida State is, but a consistent winner who outplays opponents. CLEMSON by thirteen
Fri Oct 26
Cincinnati Bearcats at #24 Louisville Cardinals: Cincy suffered their first loss against non-conference Toledo. Could they suffer two losses in a row? Louisville seems to be the better team, but I remember the last time we had three unbeaten Big East teams this late into the season. Each team lost to another, and the Big East title came down to a three-way tiebreaker. Somehow, I think the same thing will happen. Cincy hosts Rutgers later and Rutgers hosts Louisville, so I'll go with the home teams to cause our confusion. I still think Cincy will fight hard to prevent a second consecutive loss, and might pull off the upset. LOUISVILLE by four
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons: Air Force has struggled outside the conference, but they've been stiff competition within it. Nevada has been a strong team all year. The Wolf Pack is the easy pick, but don't expect Air Force to make it easy for them. NEVADA by eight
Top 25
#13 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Bulldogs have accumulated the best record they have ever had, but their winning streak is over. Alabama is just too tough for everyone, and the Bulldogs are just the latest victims. ALABAMA by 20
Colorado Buffaloes at #2 Oregon Ducks: This may be the most one-sided game of the day. Colorado has not been a tough competitor this season, and their defense is suspect. Expect at least 55 points from the Ducks. OREGON by lots
#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #3 Kansas State Wildcats: Could the only unbeaten team in the Big XII suffer their first loss? It's possible, but I don't think so. The Wildcats have a decent defense, which could slow the Red Raiders' attack. The Tech defense has slowed some strong teams, but the three overtime squeaker against TCU last week showed that Tech, a team not used to a good defense, still has some work to do on that squad. KANSAS STATE by ten
#4 Florida Gators v #11 Georgia Bulldogs: If this game was played between the hedges, the Bulldogs might stand a better chance. Playing at a neutral location, though, firmly gives the edge to Florida. The Gators are trying to prove that they the best in the SEC East, and a win here gives them a two-game lead in the division race, setting up their desired contest against Alabama for the SEC title. FLORIDA by fifteen
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: The best teams in the Leaders division, and possibly in the entire Big Ten conference, face off this week. Penn State has been looking better each week, but Ohio State toughens against strong opponents. Weak ones have caught them by surprise this season, but the Buckeyes stiffen against stiff competition. OHIO STATE by six
Duke Blue Devils at #7 Florida State Seminoles: The surprising Duke Blue Devils lead the ACC Coastal division. More surprisingly, they would still lead even after this loss, regardless of whether Miami or North Carolina win, due to tiebreaker advantages. They'll need those advantages, because I don't see Duke emerging victorious here. The Seminoles have a better offense, better defense, and better special teams than Duke. Something really weird would have to happen for Florida State to lose this one. FLORIDA STATE by sixteen
#10 USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats: This has not been a good Pac-12 season for the Wildcats, and the Trojans will continue their woes. USC by 18
Tennessee Volunteers at #15 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks haven't won a game since they smothered Georgia. They need to prevent a third straight loss. I think struggling Tennessee is the best opponent for them to regain their footing. SOUTH CAROLINA by 21
#16 Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies: The Beavers are chasing state rival Oregon for the Pac-12 North title, and they don't want to lose pace until the two square off Nov 24th. Washington won't give them much of a problem. OREGON STATE by 16
#17 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys: The best Mountain West team against the worst. This one is easy to pick. BOISE STATE by 31
#18 Texas A&M Aggies at Auburn Tigers: Normally competitive Auburn is languishing at the bottom of the SEC. It's an unfamiliar position for them. They'd like to get out of it, but their offense stinks and their normally reliable defense is struggling. The Aggies aren't great, but they are powerful enough to kick Auburn butt. TEXAS A&M by 20
#21 UCLA Bruins at #19 Arizona State Sun Devils: UCLA had last week off, and they may have engineered a game plan to get them past the Sun Devils. However, after last week's loss, I think the Sun Devils will tweak their own game plan, and get the offense moving better. ARIZONA STATE by seven
#22 Ohio Bobcats at Miami Ohio Redhawks: Ohio continues their run through the MAC, looking for their first unbeaten season. They stand a good chance, as they don't face either Toledo or Northern Illinois until the MAC Championship, but they have to finish the season against Kent State. They should be unbeaten going into that game, though. OHIO by nine
Kent State Golden Flashes at #23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Speaking of the 6-1 (4-0 in MAC play) Golden Flashes, they face unbeaten Rutgers. A MAC team knocked off an unbeaten Big East last week. Could history repeat itself? Rutgers hopes not, but the MAC is a tough conference this season. I'll pick Rutgers, but watch out for Kent State. RUTGERS by three
#25 Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks: Easy game for Texas, as Kansas finds itself in a comfortable spot -- the basement of the Big XII. TEXAS by twenty
Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has two conference losses, but Iowa actually has a NEGATIVE point differential among conference opponents. Northwestern has faced some tougher opponents this season, and emerged stronger. Iowa is still too inconsistent for me to show much confidence. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini: This is a game the Illini might win. They're at home, and despite an offensive surge against Ohio State, Indiana has not been sharp. To win, Illinois has to get their offense going, as it has been pathetic. It's a longshot, but this is Illinois' best shot for a win, so I have to go for the long shot. ILLINOIS by four
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers: Michigan State is in free fall. Their defense still has power, but the offense is sputtering again. Wisconsin's offense has improved, not relying so much on a struggling Monte Ball. WISCONSIN by eight
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota has Illinois' disease. They played well prior to conference play, but a deficit offense has lost them every Big Ten game. That will continue, despite a rather anemic offense from Purdue. Purdue's offense has also shrunk since Big Ten play began, but they've shown flashes of strength, while Minnesota has really collapsed against conference opponents. PURDUE by four
Other Games of Interest
Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos: Western Michigan has collapsed after a decent start to the season, which diminishes Illinois' only FBS victory. Northern Illinois is running through MAC opponents to battle Toledo for the MAC West title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 18
NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels: NC State has been a bit of a surprise, but North Carolina has the offensive power to destroy their state rival. The Wolfpack defense has been good, but it's not good enough to slow the behemoth that is the Tar Heels offense this season. NORTH CAROLINA by eleven
Utah State Aggies at Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners: UTSA has played decently in their first FBS season, but they played lots of FCS opponents early. WAC play is proving tougher for them, and they have to play the conference-leading Aggies this week. That won't help UTSA's FBS record. UTAH STATE by 16
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos: Fresno has really caught fire the past few weeks, while New Mexico finds themselves mired in mediocrity this season. That may be a normal position for New Mexico, but that won't stop them from fighting. It won't prove enough, though. FRESNO STATE by 18
Toledo Rockets at Buffalo Bulls: Toledo keeps pace with the Huskies by trouncing Buffalo. No letdown after their defeat of Cincy last week. TOLEDO by 20
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones: Both of these are teams who impressed during non-conference play and have been less than impressive during conference play. Who will right their ship this week? It's Baylor's offense against Iowa State's defense. In cases like that, I usually favor the defense, especially when they are the home team. IOWA STATE by four
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at New Mexico State Aggies: Tech continues their march to compete with Utah State for the conference title. LOUISIANA TECH by 30
UCF Golden Knights at Marshall Thundering Herd: We've heard quite a bit about UCF this season, so they are the obvious favorite. However, I think this game will be closer than most people would expect. Marshall is no slouch, despite a 3-4 record, and these two teams match up well. I'll pick UCF to continue their run though Conference USA, but watch out! UCF by four
FCS Game of the Week: Southern Illinois Salukis at North Dakota State Bison: Two leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference face off, and we'll get to see how they really fare. North Dakota State has been an offensive monster this season, while Southern Illinois' play is more conservative. The winner matches up well to keep pace with conference leader Indiana State, who beat both of these teams. The loser obviously falls dangerously back in the conference. I like the Bison offense to roll in this one. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by eleven
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 Oklahoma Sooners: If this game were played in South Bend, it would be a tough pick. However, the Sooners have been exploding after a slow start to the season. Add that momentum to the home crowd fervor, and I have to favor the Sooners in this matchup. OKLAHOMA by ten
Sunday, October 21, 2012
NCAA 2012 Week 8 Top 25
Few upsets left the Top 25 fairly stable, with positions changing only due to changes in strength measures due to changes in strength of schedule (opponents improving or declining) or small margins of victory against weak opponents.
The news of the week, something I wasn't sure I'd be alive to state again: Duke is bowl eligible! More amazingly, they lead the ACC Coastal division, which is a great segue to remind my loyal readers that I will begin the conference and division title races portion of this column in two weeks.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1] : Sports Illustrated recently wrote that they don't see any team beating Alabama. I don't either, as they continue to dominate all opponents while the other Top 5 teams have played at least one close game.
2. Oregon Ducks (7-0) [2] : Screw the BCS, the Ducks are clearly the second best team in the nation
3. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) [5] : The Wiklcats get better with each ranked opponent. That's a dangerous signal to their upcoming opponents.
4. Florida Gators (7-0) [6] : A destruction of South Carolina rises them to the 2nd best SEC team
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) [3] : A struggle against BYU didn't help, but the Irish remain dangerous
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) [4] : Why the hell isn't Ohio State in the BCS rankings? They say it's because they on probation, but that didn't stop them from ranking USC the past two years. Once again, the reputation of the Big Ten conference, and the reach of its strong alumni bodies, makes everyone jealous.
7. Florida State Seminoles (7-1) [8] : The best one-loss team continues to win big. Clemson is really their only competition for the ACC title
8. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [16] : This team started the season slowly, but they have been pouring it on lately
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [9] : Another close victory makes followers uncomfortable. They will keep one team around that pours it on the fourth quarter and beats them.
10. USC Trojans (6-1) [12] : With Arizona State starting to fall, the Trojans are becoming the favorite for the Pac-12 South division title
11. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [11] : A narrow victory over Kentucky doesn't fully erase the huge loss to the Gamecocks (who haven't won a game since then)
12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) [10] : An overtime victory over TCU exposed the frailties of the Raiders defense
13. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0) [15] : If not for Alabama, the Bulldogs could win only their second division title
14. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [14]
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) [7] : Two consecutive losses put the Gamecocks on the skids
16. Oregon State Beavers (6-0) [20] : The Beavers won a tough game at home. If they want to stand out in the Pac-12, they must get tougher.
17. Boise State Broncos (6-1) [NR} : The Broncos return to the Top 25 on a powerful performance, a rarity among many of the Top 25 this past week
18. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [17] : They fought hard against LSU
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) [13] : They were wiped out by Oregon, but hopefully they are past their toughest opponent
20. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) [18] : They played Tech close
21. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [21]
22. Ohio Bobcats (7-0) [22]
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-0) [23] : One of only two unbeaten teams in the Big East now
24. Louisville Cardinals (7-0) [24]
25. Texas Longhorns (5-2) [25]
On the Edge: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-1), Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1), Michigan Wolverines (5-2), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2), Toledo Rockets (7-1), Utah State Aggies (6-2), Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-2), UCF Golden Knights (5-2), Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-3), Stanford Cardinal (5-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3), Baylor Bears (3-3)
Dropped: Cincinnati Bearcats [#19]
Big Ten Report
Actually, my personal power rankings mostly match the current standings (look anywhere for that; I use ESPN) except I would put Indiana ahead of Illinois, who trail the Leaders division.
The news of the week, something I wasn't sure I'd be alive to state again: Duke is bowl eligible! More amazingly, they lead the ACC Coastal division, which is a great segue to remind my loyal readers that I will begin the conference and division title races portion of this column in two weeks.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1] : Sports Illustrated recently wrote that they don't see any team beating Alabama. I don't either, as they continue to dominate all opponents while the other Top 5 teams have played at least one close game.
2. Oregon Ducks (7-0) [2] : Screw the BCS, the Ducks are clearly the second best team in the nation
3. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) [5] : The Wiklcats get better with each ranked opponent. That's a dangerous signal to their upcoming opponents.
4. Florida Gators (7-0) [6] : A destruction of South Carolina rises them to the 2nd best SEC team
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0) [3] : A struggle against BYU didn't help, but the Irish remain dangerous
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) [4] : Why the hell isn't Ohio State in the BCS rankings? They say it's because they on probation, but that didn't stop them from ranking USC the past two years. Once again, the reputation of the Big Ten conference, and the reach of its strong alumni bodies, makes everyone jealous.
7. Florida State Seminoles (7-1) [8] : The best one-loss team continues to win big. Clemson is really their only competition for the ACC title
8. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [16] : This team started the season slowly, but they have been pouring it on lately
9. LSU Tigers (7-1) [9] : Another close victory makes followers uncomfortable. They will keep one team around that pours it on the fourth quarter and beats them.
10. USC Trojans (6-1) [12] : With Arizona State starting to fall, the Trojans are becoming the favorite for the Pac-12 South division title
11. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [11] : A narrow victory over Kentucky doesn't fully erase the huge loss to the Gamecocks (who haven't won a game since then)
12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1) [10] : An overtime victory over TCU exposed the frailties of the Raiders defense
13. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0) [15] : If not for Alabama, the Bulldogs could win only their second division title
14. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [14]
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) [7] : Two consecutive losses put the Gamecocks on the skids
16. Oregon State Beavers (6-0) [20] : The Beavers won a tough game at home. If they want to stand out in the Pac-12, they must get tougher.
17. Boise State Broncos (6-1) [NR} : The Broncos return to the Top 25 on a powerful performance, a rarity among many of the Top 25 this past week
18. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [17] : They fought hard against LSU
19. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) [13] : They were wiped out by Oregon, but hopefully they are past their toughest opponent
20. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) [18] : They played Tech close
21. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [21]
22. Ohio Bobcats (7-0) [22]
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-0) [23] : One of only two unbeaten teams in the Big East now
24. Louisville Cardinals (7-0) [24]
25. Texas Longhorns (5-2) [25]
On the Edge: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-1), Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1), Michigan Wolverines (5-2), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2), Toledo Rockets (7-1), Utah State Aggies (6-2), Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (5-2), UCF Golden Knights (5-2), Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-3), Stanford Cardinal (5-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3), Baylor Bears (3-3)
Dropped: Cincinnati Bearcats [#19]
Big Ten Report
Actually, my personal power rankings mostly match the current standings (look anywhere for that; I use ESPN) except I would put Indiana ahead of Illinois, who trail the Leaders division.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 7 picks
I seem to be alternating great weeks with terrible weeks. In that case, this should be a great week. I'm also picking very few visitors, so things look good.
Thursday night: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: I'd love to pick the Seahawks, as they seem to be improving, but I think the 49ers will bounce back from their terrible loss last week. 49ERS, 26-16
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. The Cardinals have a stiff defense, while the Vikings offense is strong. The Vikings defense needs some work, while the Cards offense (especially lately) has been lagging. It's that recent trend of a faltering offense that convinces me that the Vikings stand the better chance of winning. VIKINGS, 28-20
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Both teams suffered losses due to injury last week, but the Ravens' may be more severe. Two of their top defenders are out for the rest of the season. The Ravens have a good bench, but this could impact their effectiveness. Houston is a tough team, and I think they'll still be tough. Their offense is a bit better than Baltimore's, too. TEXANS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: I'm going to step out on a limb here. Cleveland has been steadily improving, and Andrew Luck is not getting enough support from the defense. The Browns defense is not great, either, but Brandon Wheeden has the offense rolling. I like Cleveland for the surprise pick. BROWNS, 27-23
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is the attractive pick, knowing what that offense is capable of doing, but Cam Newton and company have not been racking up the yardage like they did last season. Dallas gave Baltimore all they could handle, so the offense may be showing enough power to propel themselves. COWBOYS, 24-23
Green Bay Packers at St Louis Rams: I think the Pack finally woke up last week. If the offense keeps that level of intensity, they will bowl over the Rams defense. The Pack's defense isn't great, so the Rams will score, but they won't score enough to overcome the Pack. PACKERS, 27-20
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints offense woke up two weeks ago before their bye. If they used the bye to get their heads screwed on straight, instead of continuing to fight the league on the bounty scandal issue, they could overpower the Bucs, despite the Bucs' strong defense. However, based upon the amount of news I've still seen about the Saints, especially Jonathan Vilma, I think the battle with the league is still a distraction, which interferes with them enough to let Tampa Bay excel. BUCS, 26-24
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: This could be an interesting game. The Titans have the worst defense in the league, but Buffalo's isn't much better. That gives both offenses a chance to shine. Given that, which offense will play better? The Titans have more potential, but Jake Locker and company have underperformed this season. Locker participated in limited practice, so it appears he will be back for Sunday, but that may not help them much. BILLS, 27-20
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul has already started trash talking RGIII, which might not be a smart move. The Redskins offense is moving well, well enough to frustrate the Giants defense. However, the Redskins defense has been poor this season. The Redskins will score against the Giants, but the Giants will score more. A last minute drive by the Redskins will fall just a little short, as they will a TD to win. GIANTS, 31-27
Sunday late games
New York Jets at New England Patriots: The switcheroo of Sanchez and Tebow worked well last week, but don't count on the same success this week. Nobody does or plans for clever game switches better than Bill Belichick, Despite all the attention the Jets' offense has garnered, it is the defense that is surprisingly underperforming, which will allow the Pats offense to roll. PATRIOTS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: Neither teams' offense has generated much power this season, but the Jags are pathetic. They are the worst offense in the league. Oakland is 30th, but the difference is significant. The Raiders defense is poor enough that the Jags will score, but the Raiders will still win. RAIDERS, 23-20
Sunday night: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both teams are reeling from shocking losses last week. The Bengals' loss might have been worse, mainly due to the number of errors committed by Andy Dalton. The Browns shattered his confidence; he was forcing throws at the end of the game. Dalton will need a good game to restore that confidence. Unfortunately, the Steelers defense won't let him get one. They know that Dalton is reeling, and they will charge him and frustrate him. STEELERS, 26-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Oh, I HATE it when my Bears play Monday Night Football. Sure, I get to see them, but they play worse on Monday night than any other time. I should pick Detroit for just that reason. However, the Bears defense has been especially fierce this season, and the Lions struggle, even make mistakes, in the face of stiff defenses. Cutler will make mistakes, and throw a couple of interceptions, but will the Bears defense let the Lions capitalize on them? BEARS, 23-17
Thursday night: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: I'd love to pick the Seahawks, as they seem to be improving, but I think the 49ers will bounce back from their terrible loss last week. 49ERS, 26-16
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. The Cardinals have a stiff defense, while the Vikings offense is strong. The Vikings defense needs some work, while the Cards offense (especially lately) has been lagging. It's that recent trend of a faltering offense that convinces me that the Vikings stand the better chance of winning. VIKINGS, 28-20
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: Both teams suffered losses due to injury last week, but the Ravens' may be more severe. Two of their top defenders are out for the rest of the season. The Ravens have a good bench, but this could impact their effectiveness. Houston is a tough team, and I think they'll still be tough. Their offense is a bit better than Baltimore's, too. TEXANS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: I'm going to step out on a limb here. Cleveland has been steadily improving, and Andrew Luck is not getting enough support from the defense. The Browns defense is not great, either, but Brandon Wheeden has the offense rolling. I like Cleveland for the surprise pick. BROWNS, 27-23
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is the attractive pick, knowing what that offense is capable of doing, but Cam Newton and company have not been racking up the yardage like they did last season. Dallas gave Baltimore all they could handle, so the offense may be showing enough power to propel themselves. COWBOYS, 24-23
Green Bay Packers at St Louis Rams: I think the Pack finally woke up last week. If the offense keeps that level of intensity, they will bowl over the Rams defense. The Pack's defense isn't great, so the Rams will score, but they won't score enough to overcome the Pack. PACKERS, 27-20
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints offense woke up two weeks ago before their bye. If they used the bye to get their heads screwed on straight, instead of continuing to fight the league on the bounty scandal issue, they could overpower the Bucs, despite the Bucs' strong defense. However, based upon the amount of news I've still seen about the Saints, especially Jonathan Vilma, I think the battle with the league is still a distraction, which interferes with them enough to let Tampa Bay excel. BUCS, 26-24
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: This could be an interesting game. The Titans have the worst defense in the league, but Buffalo's isn't much better. That gives both offenses a chance to shine. Given that, which offense will play better? The Titans have more potential, but Jake Locker and company have underperformed this season. Locker participated in limited practice, so it appears he will be back for Sunday, but that may not help them much. BILLS, 27-20
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul has already started trash talking RGIII, which might not be a smart move. The Redskins offense is moving well, well enough to frustrate the Giants defense. However, the Redskins defense has been poor this season. The Redskins will score against the Giants, but the Giants will score more. A last minute drive by the Redskins will fall just a little short, as they will a TD to win. GIANTS, 31-27
Sunday late games
New York Jets at New England Patriots: The switcheroo of Sanchez and Tebow worked well last week, but don't count on the same success this week. Nobody does or plans for clever game switches better than Bill Belichick, Despite all the attention the Jets' offense has garnered, it is the defense that is surprisingly underperforming, which will allow the Pats offense to roll. PATRIOTS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: Neither teams' offense has generated much power this season, but the Jags are pathetic. They are the worst offense in the league. Oakland is 30th, but the difference is significant. The Raiders defense is poor enough that the Jags will score, but the Raiders will still win. RAIDERS, 23-20
Sunday night: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both teams are reeling from shocking losses last week. The Bengals' loss might have been worse, mainly due to the number of errors committed by Andy Dalton. The Browns shattered his confidence; he was forcing throws at the end of the game. Dalton will need a good game to restore that confidence. Unfortunately, the Steelers defense won't let him get one. They know that Dalton is reeling, and they will charge him and frustrate him. STEELERS, 26-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Oh, I HATE it when my Bears play Monday Night Football. Sure, I get to see them, but they play worse on Monday night than any other time. I should pick Detroit for just that reason. However, the Bears defense has been especially fierce this season, and the Lions struggle, even make mistakes, in the face of stiff defenses. Cutler will make mistakes, and throw a couple of interceptions, but will the Bears defense let the Lions capitalize on them? BEARS, 23-17
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 6 power rankings
Parity still influences the league, as there are only a handful of teams with winning records (only two in the AFC!). We have one unbeaten team remaining and no winless teams.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) [3] : The only unbeaten team is the de facto power leader, only because they held out to win. Numerically, this team is Number Three.
2. Chicago Bears (4-1) [2] : With so many top teams losing, the best thing for the Bears this week was a bye
3. Houston Texans (5-1) [1] : The Texans got run over by the resurgent Packers, but I think they'll recover
4. New York Giants (4-2) [8] : Two dominant games in a row moves the Super Bowl champs into the Top Five
5. Baltimore Ravens (5-1) [5] : They squeezed out a win, but they lost their two most important defenders, so we'll have to see if they can maintain this power level
6. San Francisco 49ers (4-2) [4] : They got socked by the Giants, but their body of work is still strong. Since they didn't suffer any major injuries, their ability to leap over Baltimore and Houston seems likely
7. New England Patriots (3-3) [7] : Despite a close loss to Seattle, New England still looks solid, albeit inconsistent
8. Minnesota Vikings (4-2) [6] : Washington and RGIII wiped them. They need to tough their defense
9. Seattle Seahawks (4-2) [11] : San Fran's huge loss against the Giants now makes this team the favorite in the NFC West
10. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) [9] : Kolb goes down and Skelton looked pathetic. QB woes are starting to creep in to the this, and those woes will grow if they cannot generate a running game to take pressure off the QB
11. Denver Broncos (3-3) [12] : Peyton engineered a great second half comeback, with some excellent help from the defense. This team is coming together.
12. Green Bay Packers (3-3) [16] : Powerful resurgence of the Pack. Have they finally woken up this season
13. Washington Redskins (3-3) [15] : RGIII had a huge game. If he gets more consistent, this could be the most dangerous team in the NFC East.
14. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-3) [19] : The Bucs have their first impressive game of the season. Granted, it was against KC.
15. San Diego Chargers (3-3) [10] : The defense collapsed in the second half, and 3 INTs by Philip Rivers didn't help, either
16. Miami Dolphins (3-3) [17] : Their defense forestalled the Rams resurgence
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
Shockingly, all of the NFC divisions are above all of the AFC divisions. It is clear where the power is located right now.
1. NFC North [1] : Despite Minnesota's loss, the resurgence of the Packers and an impressive comeback by the Lions boosted this division back to the top
2. NFC West [2] : This division has not team with a losing record, and most have 4-2 records. Arizona is falling, but the 49ers and Rams should bounce back.
3. NFC South [5] : Two bye teams and two winners gave this division the best winning percentage of the week
4. NFC East [4] : Despite only one team in the upper half of the power rankings, they also lack a terrible team, which places them ahead of all AFC divisions
5. AFC North [3] : The two leaders both lost, and the Ravens lost some key players for the season. If Pittsburgh doesn't get more consistent, Brandon Wheeden could propel the Browns to the top of the division
6. AFC East [6] : How's this for parity? Every single team in the division has a record of 3-3. Although the Jets have won two divisional games, the Pats have the advantage in schedule and strength.
7. AFC West [7] : KC and Oakland continue to struggle, although the Raiders at least put up some resistance. The Broncos are improving, while the Chargers fell apart in the second half this week.
8. AFC South [8] : Houston falls, and they remain the only decent team in this division.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Atlanta Falcons (6-0) [3] : The only unbeaten team is the de facto power leader, only because they held out to win. Numerically, this team is Number Three.
2. Chicago Bears (4-1) [2] : With so many top teams losing, the best thing for the Bears this week was a bye
3. Houston Texans (5-1) [1] : The Texans got run over by the resurgent Packers, but I think they'll recover
4. New York Giants (4-2) [8] : Two dominant games in a row moves the Super Bowl champs into the Top Five
5. Baltimore Ravens (5-1) [5] : They squeezed out a win, but they lost their two most important defenders, so we'll have to see if they can maintain this power level
6. San Francisco 49ers (4-2) [4] : They got socked by the Giants, but their body of work is still strong. Since they didn't suffer any major injuries, their ability to leap over Baltimore and Houston seems likely
7. New England Patriots (3-3) [7] : Despite a close loss to Seattle, New England still looks solid, albeit inconsistent
8. Minnesota Vikings (4-2) [6] : Washington and RGIII wiped them. They need to tough their defense
9. Seattle Seahawks (4-2) [11] : San Fran's huge loss against the Giants now makes this team the favorite in the NFC West
10. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) [9] : Kolb goes down and Skelton looked pathetic. QB woes are starting to creep in to the this, and those woes will grow if they cannot generate a running game to take pressure off the QB
11. Denver Broncos (3-3) [12] : Peyton engineered a great second half comeback, with some excellent help from the defense. This team is coming together.
12. Green Bay Packers (3-3) [16] : Powerful resurgence of the Pack. Have they finally woken up this season
13. Washington Redskins (3-3) [15] : RGIII had a huge game. If he gets more consistent, this could be the most dangerous team in the NFC East.
14. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-3) [19] : The Bucs have their first impressive game of the season. Granted, it was against KC.
15. San Diego Chargers (3-3) [10] : The defense collapsed in the second half, and 3 INTs by Philip Rivers didn't help, either
16. Miami Dolphins (3-3) [17] : Their defense forestalled the Rams resurgence
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
Shockingly, all of the NFC divisions are above all of the AFC divisions. It is clear where the power is located right now.
1. NFC North [1] : Despite Minnesota's loss, the resurgence of the Packers and an impressive comeback by the Lions boosted this division back to the top
2. NFC West [2] : This division has not team with a losing record, and most have 4-2 records. Arizona is falling, but the 49ers and Rams should bounce back.
3. NFC South [5] : Two bye teams and two winners gave this division the best winning percentage of the week
4. NFC East [4] : Despite only one team in the upper half of the power rankings, they also lack a terrible team, which places them ahead of all AFC divisions
5. AFC North [3] : The two leaders both lost, and the Ravens lost some key players for the season. If Pittsburgh doesn't get more consistent, Brandon Wheeden could propel the Browns to the top of the division
6. AFC East [6] : How's this for parity? Every single team in the division has a record of 3-3. Although the Jets have won two divisional games, the Pats have the advantage in schedule and strength.
7. AFC West [7] : KC and Oakland continue to struggle, although the Raiders at least put up some resistance. The Broncos are improving, while the Chargers fell apart in the second half this week.
8. AFC South [8] : Houston falls, and they remain the only decent team in this division.
Monday, October 15, 2012
NCAA 2012 Week 8 picks
I discussed the upsets in the Top 25 entry, so let's get right to it. There is a Tuesday evening game, but it matches two Sun Belt teams, so it is not as interesting.
Thursday Oct 18
Houston Cougars at SMU Mustangs: Houston has recovered well from a slow start, having gone 2-0 in Conference USA to even their record. SMU also started slowly, but they haven't improved much. HOUSTON by ten
#2 Oregon Ducks at #13 Arizona State Sun Devils: Both teams have powerful offenses. The main difference is the Ducks ability to spread the offense. The Sun Devils rely too much on some of the same players. If the Ducks defense targets them, it'll slow their offense. The Ducks have too many tools for a defense to adequately cover. OREGON by 18
Fri Oct 19: UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange: Like Houston, Syracuse has had an awakening recently, and have played much tougher ball. Even if they lose, they are giving their opponents a hard time. UConn may have won more games than Syracuse, but they have collapsed in Big East play. I favor the Orange. SYRACUSE by eleven
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers: This game will basically be over by halftime. 'Bama's second team may get some playing time. ALABAMA by 31
BYU Cougars at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Both teams have decent defenses, but the difference is the strong Irish offense. BYU's defense isn't good enough to stop them, so the Irish will go to 7-0 for the first time since the 1990's. NOTRE DAME by 17
Purdue Boilermakers at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten and the only ranked team in the conference, and that will continue. Purdue is winless in the conference, and that, too, should continue. Purdue has a decent defense, but Ohio State's is better (all evidence against Indiana to the contrary). Furthermore, the Buckeyes have an offense that can move the ball against anyone. OHIO STATE by 23
#5 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers have a weak defense, so the Wildcats will have a scoring jamboree, even more so than they've already enjoyed this season. The Wildcats don't have a great defense, but it's enough to slow the Mountaineers. KANSAS STATE by 17
#8 Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes: Miami has been fairly successful in ACC games so far this season, but they've played three of the weakest teams: Georgia Tech, NC State, and Boston College. Now their schedule gets more challenging, and Miami will find the going tough. They face their toughest ACC opponent this week. It's a bitter in-state rivalry, so Miami has more incentive to play well, but the Seminoles will still beat them. The Seminoles have a strong offense and a stingy defense, and both squads are better than Miami's respective squads. FLORIDA STATE by 18
#9 LSU Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies: This could be an exciting game, and was my runner-up for Game of the Week. LSU had been playing rather lackluster this season, but stepped up their game last week. If they continue that, they could find themselves competing for the division title against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Aggies have played pretty close games in the SEC, also. I think LSU is better in close games, although the lead in this game will change hands a few times. LSU by six
#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #18 TCU Horned Frogs: Another match-up of Top 25 teams, but this one won't be so close. Both teams have potent offenses, but the Tech defense is the difference maker in this game (and trust me, I never thought I'd sing the praises of a DEFENSE in Texas Tech!). TEXAS TECH by ten
#11 Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: Georgia has stewed for two weeks over their embarrassing loss to South Carolina. They want a chance to shine. Kentucky has struggled this year, so this is an excellent chance for Georgia to shine. GEORGIA by 26
Colorado Buffaloes at #12 USC Trojans: USC sees a chance to regain the top of the Pac-12 South division, after Oregon is likely to beat Arizona State. That motivation will be enough. Given Colorado's struggles, they really don't need the motivation. USC by 28
Virginia Tech Hokies at #14 Clemson Tigers: It's a credit to the history of Virginia Tech that a 2-1 conference record, and 4-3 overall record, would be considered a disappointing year. For the Hokies, it is! I'm afraid that situation will continue. Unlike previous years, the Hokies are slim on surprises this season, and Clemson has had an extra week to analyze the Hokies' game plan. Virginia Tech will likely keep this game closer than it should be, just because they are too tenacious, but Clemson should still emerge victorious. CLEMSON by ten
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs: An SEC Bulldogs team is unbeaten, but it's not the one people expected. Miss State has benefited from an easy early schedule, and Middle Tennessee qualifies as well. The Bulldogs should win this game, but it won't be much of a workout before facing Alabama next week. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 16
Kansas Jayhawks at #16 Oklahoma Sooners: Once again, Kansas is at the bottom of the Big XII; in fact, they are the ONLY Big XII team with a losing record (Forget the SEC. The best conference this season is the Big XII)! Oklahoma should have another blowout game like they served Texas. OKLAHOMA by 38
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets: Cincy has won a couple of big games against decent opponents. Toledo had a big game against Western Michigan, but Cincy clearly has the better "resume". Toledo can be a tough opponent, so this may be a close game, but it'll be Cincy's to win. CINCY by nine
Utah Utes at #20 Oregon State Beavers: Utah has struggled ever since they joined the Pac-12, and their woes will continue. The unbeaten Beavers haven't won big, but they have continued to win. They should win again, and perhaps have their biggest margin of victory of the season. OREGON STATE by 16
#23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Temple Owls: Temple is currently unbeaten in Big East play, but that won't last. Temple has beaten two of the worst teams in the conference, and now they face the best team. Rutgers will have a field day. RUTGERS by 18
South Florida Bulls at #24 Louisville Cardinals: Louisville faces a team already beaten by Temple. Looks like another one-sided Big East contest. LOUISVILLE by 24
Baylor Bears at #25 Texas Longhorns: Texas was embarrassed last week in front of a home state crowd in Dallas, so you know they want to beat up on their next opponent. Baylor has a shockingly strong offense, but their defense needs work. That will be the point Texas will exploit. After being held in check by the Oklahoma defense, Texas will look to light up the scoreboard this week. Fortunately for their fans, their defense is good enough to slow Baylor enough to maintain a lead, although it will not be the blowout Longhorn fans will likely be looking for. TEXAS by nine
Big Ten
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines: The Spartans stumbled last week, and you can be sure that the Michigan staff will be watching that tape carefully. Michigan has consistently been improving since an opening loss to Alabama, and their destruction of Illinois last week showed just how far they have come. MICHIGAN by 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: The Gophers had a good non-conference season, but they can't keep pace with Big Ten teams this season. Considering how down many of them are, that says much about the deficiencies of the Gophers. WISCONSIN by ten
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats: This could be a close game. Northwestern has been playing well, but Nebraska has faced tougher opponents, and has had good performances. Nebraska has actually scored better than Northwestern, and their defenses are not too far apart. I'll give a slight advantage to Northwestern, but Nebraska could easily win this one. NORTHWESTERN by three
Indiana Hoosiers at Navy Midshipmen: Indiana generated more offense last week against Ohio State than they had in any other game this season. Was that a fluke, or the start of a trend? I'm going to pick it as a fluke until I see otherwise. Navy has struggled this season, and their normally reliable running game has been less than reliable. Indiana's defense is poor, though, so Navy should have a better result this game. NAVY by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes: Both teams come into this game unbeaten in conference play and 4-2 overall. Something has to give. Penn State had a bye last week, and they've been steadily improving since their opening loss to unbeaten Ohio. Iowa QB James Vandenberg showed great improvement last week, but I have to favor the Nittany Lions in their continued improvement. PENN STATE by ten
Other Games of Interest
Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys: This will be a close game. Iowa State has been playing nearly everyone tough this season. The Cowboys have been more constrained than before, but they still have the talent to succeed. I think the Cowboys can win this one, but Iowa State is dangerous enough to come from behind late. OKLAHOMA STATE by four
Northern Illinois Huskies at Akron Zips: The Huskies should blow out the 1-6 Zips. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 26
Stanford Cardinal at Cal Golden Bears: Stanford wants a win after their tough overtime loss last week, but Cal may make that hard. Cal has been a pernicious opponent this season, despite their 3-4 losing record. Cal will make things tough for Stanford, but I think they'll learn some things from last week and snag a win, but they may have to come from behind to do it. STANFORD by four
New Mexico State Aggies at Utah State Aggies: Utah State continues their impressive march to the postseason. Not only will they become bowl eligible with this win, but they will be on track to compete for the WAC title, an honor they have never been able to obtain. UTAH STATE by 20
UNLV Running Rebels at Boise State Broncos: UNLV has won only one game while Boise has lost only one game. The winner of this game is not in doubt, the question is how much the Broncos win by. They have had strong games and weaker games, but I think this one will be a strong victory. BOISE STATE by 24
Rice Owls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa leads the Conference USA West division and will continue that lead after this game. Rice has had a couple of good games this season, but basically they are overmatched here. TULSA by 14
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: The Hilltoppers lead the Sun Belt Conference, but only because they faced easier non-conference opponents. The Warhawks have shocked BCS opponents this season, and will start knocking down the stronger Sun Belt opponents as well. LOUISIANA-MONROE by twelve
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils: This may not be as close a game as you might expect. Duke is actually having a great season, currently tied with North Carolina for second place in the ACC Coastal division. The winner of this game could take the lead if Miami falls to Florida State. While North Carolina is on probation, they have such a powerful offense that I cannot doubt they will push Duke to limit in order to win this game. NORTH CAROLINA by sixteen
Idaho Vandals at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Tech lost their first game of the season last week, but they are still the favorite to win the WAC. They now enter WAC play, and play the two weakest teams in the conference in the next two weeks. Their points margins will continue to grow. LOUISIANA TECH by 21
UCF Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers: Just how easy does UCF have it to win Conference USA? How about the fact that there are only THREE teams with winning records in the conference right now? Memphis most definitely is not one of them. UCF by 20
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack: Nevada leads the Mountain West, but San Diego State is not far behind. A win here gives Nevada a nice edge, and leaves Boise State their main competition. NEVADA by 14
FCS Game of the Week: Southern Illinois Salukis at Youngstown State Penguins: The Salukis are having a great year, especially in Missouri Valley play. They are actually higher in the conference than Youngstown State. However, one thing I know about the Penguins -- you never count them out. YOUNGSTOWN STATE by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #7 South Carolina Gamecocks at #6 Florida Gators The Gamecocks got clobbered last week, so we know Steve Spurrier will change the game plan a bit. That may put Florida is a bind, as this Gators team doesn't adapt as well as they did when Urban Meyer ran them. While Florida might have the power to beat South Carolina, and Spurrier has frequently lost when he returns to Gainesville, I give a slight edge to the Gamecocks. SOUTH CAROLINA by four
Thursday Oct 18
Houston Cougars at SMU Mustangs: Houston has recovered well from a slow start, having gone 2-0 in Conference USA to even their record. SMU also started slowly, but they haven't improved much. HOUSTON by ten
#2 Oregon Ducks at #13 Arizona State Sun Devils: Both teams have powerful offenses. The main difference is the Ducks ability to spread the offense. The Sun Devils rely too much on some of the same players. If the Ducks defense targets them, it'll slow their offense. The Ducks have too many tools for a defense to adequately cover. OREGON by 18
Fri Oct 19: UConn Huskies at Syracuse Orange: Like Houston, Syracuse has had an awakening recently, and have played much tougher ball. Even if they lose, they are giving their opponents a hard time. UConn may have won more games than Syracuse, but they have collapsed in Big East play. I favor the Orange. SYRACUSE by eleven
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers: This game will basically be over by halftime. 'Bama's second team may get some playing time. ALABAMA by 31
BYU Cougars at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Both teams have decent defenses, but the difference is the strong Irish offense. BYU's defense isn't good enough to stop them, so the Irish will go to 7-0 for the first time since the 1990's. NOTRE DAME by 17
Purdue Boilermakers at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes are the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten and the only ranked team in the conference, and that will continue. Purdue is winless in the conference, and that, too, should continue. Purdue has a decent defense, but Ohio State's is better (all evidence against Indiana to the contrary). Furthermore, the Buckeyes have an offense that can move the ball against anyone. OHIO STATE by 23
#5 Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers have a weak defense, so the Wildcats will have a scoring jamboree, even more so than they've already enjoyed this season. The Wildcats don't have a great defense, but it's enough to slow the Mountaineers. KANSAS STATE by 17
#8 Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes: Miami has been fairly successful in ACC games so far this season, but they've played three of the weakest teams: Georgia Tech, NC State, and Boston College. Now their schedule gets more challenging, and Miami will find the going tough. They face their toughest ACC opponent this week. It's a bitter in-state rivalry, so Miami has more incentive to play well, but the Seminoles will still beat them. The Seminoles have a strong offense and a stingy defense, and both squads are better than Miami's respective squads. FLORIDA STATE by 18
#9 LSU Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies: This could be an exciting game, and was my runner-up for Game of the Week. LSU had been playing rather lackluster this season, but stepped up their game last week. If they continue that, they could find themselves competing for the division title against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Aggies have played pretty close games in the SEC, also. I think LSU is better in close games, although the lead in this game will change hands a few times. LSU by six
#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #18 TCU Horned Frogs: Another match-up of Top 25 teams, but this one won't be so close. Both teams have potent offenses, but the Tech defense is the difference maker in this game (and trust me, I never thought I'd sing the praises of a DEFENSE in Texas Tech!). TEXAS TECH by ten
#11 Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: Georgia has stewed for two weeks over their embarrassing loss to South Carolina. They want a chance to shine. Kentucky has struggled this year, so this is an excellent chance for Georgia to shine. GEORGIA by 26
Colorado Buffaloes at #12 USC Trojans: USC sees a chance to regain the top of the Pac-12 South division, after Oregon is likely to beat Arizona State. That motivation will be enough. Given Colorado's struggles, they really don't need the motivation. USC by 28
Virginia Tech Hokies at #14 Clemson Tigers: It's a credit to the history of Virginia Tech that a 2-1 conference record, and 4-3 overall record, would be considered a disappointing year. For the Hokies, it is! I'm afraid that situation will continue. Unlike previous years, the Hokies are slim on surprises this season, and Clemson has had an extra week to analyze the Hokies' game plan. Virginia Tech will likely keep this game closer than it should be, just because they are too tenacious, but Clemson should still emerge victorious. CLEMSON by ten
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs: An SEC Bulldogs team is unbeaten, but it's not the one people expected. Miss State has benefited from an easy early schedule, and Middle Tennessee qualifies as well. The Bulldogs should win this game, but it won't be much of a workout before facing Alabama next week. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 16
Kansas Jayhawks at #16 Oklahoma Sooners: Once again, Kansas is at the bottom of the Big XII; in fact, they are the ONLY Big XII team with a losing record (Forget the SEC. The best conference this season is the Big XII)! Oklahoma should have another blowout game like they served Texas. OKLAHOMA by 38
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets: Cincy has won a couple of big games against decent opponents. Toledo had a big game against Western Michigan, but Cincy clearly has the better "resume". Toledo can be a tough opponent, so this may be a close game, but it'll be Cincy's to win. CINCY by nine
Utah Utes at #20 Oregon State Beavers: Utah has struggled ever since they joined the Pac-12, and their woes will continue. The unbeaten Beavers haven't won big, but they have continued to win. They should win again, and perhaps have their biggest margin of victory of the season. OREGON STATE by 16
#23 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Temple Owls: Temple is currently unbeaten in Big East play, but that won't last. Temple has beaten two of the worst teams in the conference, and now they face the best team. Rutgers will have a field day. RUTGERS by 18
South Florida Bulls at #24 Louisville Cardinals: Louisville faces a team already beaten by Temple. Looks like another one-sided Big East contest. LOUISVILLE by 24
Baylor Bears at #25 Texas Longhorns: Texas was embarrassed last week in front of a home state crowd in Dallas, so you know they want to beat up on their next opponent. Baylor has a shockingly strong offense, but their defense needs work. That will be the point Texas will exploit. After being held in check by the Oklahoma defense, Texas will look to light up the scoreboard this week. Fortunately for their fans, their defense is good enough to slow Baylor enough to maintain a lead, although it will not be the blowout Longhorn fans will likely be looking for. TEXAS by nine
Big Ten
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines: The Spartans stumbled last week, and you can be sure that the Michigan staff will be watching that tape carefully. Michigan has consistently been improving since an opening loss to Alabama, and their destruction of Illinois last week showed just how far they have come. MICHIGAN by 13
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers: The Gophers had a good non-conference season, but they can't keep pace with Big Ten teams this season. Considering how down many of them are, that says much about the deficiencies of the Gophers. WISCONSIN by ten
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats: This could be a close game. Northwestern has been playing well, but Nebraska has faced tougher opponents, and has had good performances. Nebraska has actually scored better than Northwestern, and their defenses are not too far apart. I'll give a slight advantage to Northwestern, but Nebraska could easily win this one. NORTHWESTERN by three
Indiana Hoosiers at Navy Midshipmen: Indiana generated more offense last week against Ohio State than they had in any other game this season. Was that a fluke, or the start of a trend? I'm going to pick it as a fluke until I see otherwise. Navy has struggled this season, and their normally reliable running game has been less than reliable. Indiana's defense is poor, though, so Navy should have a better result this game. NAVY by eight
Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes: Both teams come into this game unbeaten in conference play and 4-2 overall. Something has to give. Penn State had a bye last week, and they've been steadily improving since their opening loss to unbeaten Ohio. Iowa QB James Vandenberg showed great improvement last week, but I have to favor the Nittany Lions in their continued improvement. PENN STATE by ten
Other Games of Interest
Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys: This will be a close game. Iowa State has been playing nearly everyone tough this season. The Cowboys have been more constrained than before, but they still have the talent to succeed. I think the Cowboys can win this one, but Iowa State is dangerous enough to come from behind late. OKLAHOMA STATE by four
Northern Illinois Huskies at Akron Zips: The Huskies should blow out the 1-6 Zips. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 26
Stanford Cardinal at Cal Golden Bears: Stanford wants a win after their tough overtime loss last week, but Cal may make that hard. Cal has been a pernicious opponent this season, despite their 3-4 losing record. Cal will make things tough for Stanford, but I think they'll learn some things from last week and snag a win, but they may have to come from behind to do it. STANFORD by four
New Mexico State Aggies at Utah State Aggies: Utah State continues their impressive march to the postseason. Not only will they become bowl eligible with this win, but they will be on track to compete for the WAC title, an honor they have never been able to obtain. UTAH STATE by 20
UNLV Running Rebels at Boise State Broncos: UNLV has won only one game while Boise has lost only one game. The winner of this game is not in doubt, the question is how much the Broncos win by. They have had strong games and weaker games, but I think this one will be a strong victory. BOISE STATE by 24
Rice Owls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa leads the Conference USA West division and will continue that lead after this game. Rice has had a couple of good games this season, but basically they are overmatched here. TULSA by 14
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: The Hilltoppers lead the Sun Belt Conference, but only because they faced easier non-conference opponents. The Warhawks have shocked BCS opponents this season, and will start knocking down the stronger Sun Belt opponents as well. LOUISIANA-MONROE by twelve
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils: This may not be as close a game as you might expect. Duke is actually having a great season, currently tied with North Carolina for second place in the ACC Coastal division. The winner of this game could take the lead if Miami falls to Florida State. While North Carolina is on probation, they have such a powerful offense that I cannot doubt they will push Duke to limit in order to win this game. NORTH CAROLINA by sixteen
Idaho Vandals at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Tech lost their first game of the season last week, but they are still the favorite to win the WAC. They now enter WAC play, and play the two weakest teams in the conference in the next two weeks. Their points margins will continue to grow. LOUISIANA TECH by 21
UCF Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers: Just how easy does UCF have it to win Conference USA? How about the fact that there are only THREE teams with winning records in the conference right now? Memphis most definitely is not one of them. UCF by 20
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack: Nevada leads the Mountain West, but San Diego State is not far behind. A win here gives Nevada a nice edge, and leaves Boise State their main competition. NEVADA by 14
FCS Game of the Week: Southern Illinois Salukis at Youngstown State Penguins: The Salukis are having a great year, especially in Missouri Valley play. They are actually higher in the conference than Youngstown State. However, one thing I know about the Penguins -- you never count them out. YOUNGSTOWN STATE by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #7 South Carolina Gamecocks at #6 Florida Gators The Gamecocks got clobbered last week, so we know Steve Spurrier will change the game plan a bit. That may put Florida is a bind, as this Gators team doesn't adapt as well as they did when Urban Meyer ran them. While Florida might have the power to beat South Carolina, and Spurrier has frequently lost when he returns to Gainesville, I give a slight edge to the Gamecocks. SOUTH CAROLINA by four
Sunday, October 14, 2012
NCAA 2012 Week 7 Top 25
There were some tremendous upsets among the Top 25. The Red River Rivalry was tremendously one-sided, West Virginia's offense was stopped by the marginal defense of Texas Tech, and TCU slaughtered Baylor. As a result, the Top 25 experienced quite a shake-up, including the loss of a Top Ten team.
Three unbeaten teams lost their first game this week, leaving thirteen teams remaining without a loss. All of those teams are now in the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1] : They had the most impressive victory among the Top Five teams this week
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) [4] : They required overtime, but they overcame Stanford to remain unbeaten
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) [5] : Indiana scored WAAAYY too much, but a win is a win
5. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) [6] : They overcame a threat from Iowa State
6. Florida Gators (6-0) [8] : Vandy threatened, but a great second half secured the win for the Gators
7. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [3] : LSU spoiled their unbeaten season and ruined the momentum generated from their destruction of Georgia
8. Florida State Seminoles (6-1) [13] : Another strong victory puts both Florida and Florida State in the Top Ten for the first time in years
9. LSU Tigers (6-1) [10] : They had their most impressive win of the season over South Carolina
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1) [16] : Their destruction of West Virginia proved their defense was worth notice, as well as knocking the Mountaineers right out of the Top 25
11. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) [11]
12. USC Trojans (5-1) [12] Rather pedestrian win against Utah, but the Trojans remain dangerous
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) [20] : Another great offensive performance
14. Clemson Tigers (5-1) [14]
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [15] : It took to the end of the game, but the Bulldogs pulled out a victory and has a 6-0 record for the first time in school history
16. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [NR] : They dismantled Texas in the Red River Rivalry and moved into the Top 25 with their first impressive victory of the season. We'll have to wait to see if the Rivalry was an emotional fluke or the start of a streak.
17. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [27] : They beat Louisiana Tech, but the Bulldogs scored 27 points in the fourth quarter to threaten
18. TCU Horned Frogs (5-1) [NR] : They may have found a new quarterback, as they beat Baylor without suspended Casey Pachall
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) [21]
20. Oregon State Beavers (5-0) [26] : Doubling up on BYU propels them into the Top 25, bringing all of the unbeaten teams into the rankings
21. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [22]
22. Ohio Bobcats (7-0) [23] : They continue to win. Could the MAC produce their first unbeaten team?
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-0) [24]
24. Louisville Cardinals (6-0) [25] : Three unbeaten Big East teams will not last long
25. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [9] : Oklahoma dismantled them, but I suspect they will bounce back
On the Edge: Nevada Wolf Pack (6-1), Boise State Broncos (5-1), Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (6-1), Northern Illinois Huskies (6-1), Michigan Wolverines (4-2), Northwestern Wildcats (6-1), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2), Toledo Rockets (6-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2), Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-2), UCF Golden Knights (4-2), Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Utah State Aggies (5-2)
Dropped off: West Virginia Mountaineers [#7], Stanford Cardinal [#17], Baylor Bears [#18], Louisiana Tech Bulldogs [#19]
Big Ten Report
The Iowa - Michigan State game shifted the focus of the Leaders division. The Legends division, with the probation of Ohio State and Penn State, has basically become Wisconsin's to win.
LEADERS Division:
1. Michigan Wolverines (4-2) : A tremendous shut-out of Illinois was their best performance of the season, and gave them a 2-0 conference record
2. Northwestern Wiklcats (6-1) : They redeemed themselves after their first loss and continue to look good
3. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) : A tremendous win over the Spartans puts them in the driver's seat for the division
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-2) : A bye week may have been the best thing for this team
5. Michigan State Spartans (4-3) : Two conference losses doesn't remove them from title contention, especially with the condition of the conference this season, but they have an uphill battle now
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2) : They can't seem to get it going against conference opponents
LEGENDS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) : A close game against Indiana, but they still do what is necessary to win
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2)
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) : They are finding offensive options besides Monte Ball, and making things happen
4. Indiana Hoosiers (2-4) : They had their best offensive game against the Ohio State defense. Could this be the start of an offensive run?
5. Purdue Boilermakers (3-3)
6. Illinois Fighting Illni (2-5) : The Illini get worse each week
Three unbeaten teams lost their first game this week, leaving thirteen teams remaining without a loss. All of those teams are now in the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1] : They had the most impressive victory among the Top Five teams this week
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) [2]
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) [4] : They required overtime, but they overcame Stanford to remain unbeaten
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) [5] : Indiana scored WAAAYY too much, but a win is a win
5. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) [6] : They overcame a threat from Iowa State
6. Florida Gators (6-0) [8] : Vandy threatened, but a great second half secured the win for the Gators
7. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [3] : LSU spoiled their unbeaten season and ruined the momentum generated from their destruction of Georgia
8. Florida State Seminoles (6-1) [13] : Another strong victory puts both Florida and Florida State in the Top Ten for the first time in years
9. LSU Tigers (6-1) [10] : They had their most impressive win of the season over South Carolina
10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1) [16] : Their destruction of West Virginia proved their defense was worth notice, as well as knocking the Mountaineers right out of the Top 25
11. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) [11]
12. USC Trojans (5-1) [12] Rather pedestrian win against Utah, but the Trojans remain dangerous
13. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) [20] : Another great offensive performance
14. Clemson Tigers (5-1) [14]
15. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [15] : It took to the end of the game, but the Bulldogs pulled out a victory and has a 6-0 record for the first time in school history
16. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [NR] : They dismantled Texas in the Red River Rivalry and moved into the Top 25 with their first impressive victory of the season. We'll have to wait to see if the Rivalry was an emotional fluke or the start of a streak.
17. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [27] : They beat Louisiana Tech, but the Bulldogs scored 27 points in the fourth quarter to threaten
18. TCU Horned Frogs (5-1) [NR] : They may have found a new quarterback, as they beat Baylor without suspended Casey Pachall
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) [21]
20. Oregon State Beavers (5-0) [26] : Doubling up on BYU propels them into the Top 25, bringing all of the unbeaten teams into the rankings
21. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [22]
22. Ohio Bobcats (7-0) [23] : They continue to win. Could the MAC produce their first unbeaten team?
23. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-0) [24]
24. Louisville Cardinals (6-0) [25] : Three unbeaten Big East teams will not last long
25. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [9] : Oklahoma dismantled them, but I suspect they will bounce back
On the Edge: Nevada Wolf Pack (6-1), Boise State Broncos (5-1), Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (6-1), Northern Illinois Huskies (6-1), Michigan Wolverines (4-2), Northwestern Wildcats (6-1), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2), Toledo Rockets (6-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2), Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-2), UCF Golden Knights (4-2), Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Utah State Aggies (5-2)
Dropped off: West Virginia Mountaineers [#7], Stanford Cardinal [#17], Baylor Bears [#18], Louisiana Tech Bulldogs [#19]
Big Ten Report
The Iowa - Michigan State game shifted the focus of the Leaders division. The Legends division, with the probation of Ohio State and Penn State, has basically become Wisconsin's to win.
LEADERS Division:
1. Michigan Wolverines (4-2) : A tremendous shut-out of Illinois was their best performance of the season, and gave them a 2-0 conference record
2. Northwestern Wiklcats (6-1) : They redeemed themselves after their first loss and continue to look good
3. Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) : A tremendous win over the Spartans puts them in the driver's seat for the division
4. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-2) : A bye week may have been the best thing for this team
5. Michigan State Spartans (4-3) : Two conference losses doesn't remove them from title contention, especially with the condition of the conference this season, but they have an uphill battle now
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-2) : They can't seem to get it going against conference opponents
LEGENDS Division:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) : A close game against Indiana, but they still do what is necessary to win
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2)
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) : They are finding offensive options besides Monte Ball, and making things happen
4. Indiana Hoosiers (2-4) : They had their best offensive game against the Ohio State defense. Could this be the start of an offensive run?
5. Purdue Boilermakers (3-3)
6. Illinois Fighting Illni (2-5) : The Illini get worse each week
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 6 picks
I had a good week last week, and hope to continue that streak. I have picked a few visiting teams but not a majority, so I think this strategy will work.
Thursday night game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are floundering, and the injury to Jake Locker makes things worse. Pittsburgh's offense is coming alive, and the defense is hungry. This will be a pretty one-sided game, perhaps more than the score reflects, as I expect the Steelers to turn over the ball once and for the Titans to capitalize on that. STEELERS, 27-13
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns have been steadily improving with Brandon Wheeden running the offense, and the defense is coming along, too. They could pull off the upset, but I'll stick with the Bengals. Not only do they have the better talent, but if the Browns win, it deserves to be an upset! BENGALS, 27-20
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens: The Cowboys had a week off, but I don't think that'll help them against Baltimore. The Cowboys offense has gotten a bit better this season, but the Ravens will hassle Tony Romo, and he collapses under pressure. The Cowboys defense has been inconsistent, so I'm not sure just how much the Ravens will score, so I'll pick a median number. RAVENS, 27-13
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been turning the ball much too often for me to comfortably pick them, but I suspect this will be a close game, and Philly has an interesting tendency to win close games this season. EAGLES, 24-23
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: The Colts offense is coming alive, while the Jets is collapsing. Fans are clamoring for Tebow, but I don't know if that will help. It's the offensive line that is hurting the Jets. Tebow had a strong offensive line in Denver; he needs that to have the room to move. Without it, Tebow won't be too effective. COLTS, 27-16
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: KC was faltering before Cassel went down. Without him, the offense is listless. Tampa's defense could hold the Chiefs to a single field goal, but I'll give Jamal Charles more credit and ability to get them in field goal range. BUCS, 23-9
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: Oakland may have had a bye week last week, but I don't think that helps them much. The Falcons have a potent offense, and the Raiders defense just hasn't been getting the job done this season. The Raiders offense still depends too much on Darren McFadden, although they are starting to spread the ball around. They may have prepared a couple of new plays this week, but it still won't be enough. FALCONS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins: The Rams are gaining strength, but they only seem to go that extra mile for divisional opponents. They could win this game, but Miami showed heart against Cincy last week, and they may continue that. This will likely be a close game with a few lead changes, but I'll pick the home team in a squeaker. DOLPHINS, 24-23
Sunday late games:
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals: Buffalo has not been showing up well recently. Arizona lost big to the Rams last week, but I think that'll just make them more determined to win this week. CARDS, 26-16
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: The Vikings have an excellent mix of strong offense and stingy defense. The Redskins defense is good, but if RGIII does not play this week, their chance of victory is slim. VIKES, 27-16
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: Defeating Peyton Manning, just like old times, may have been the spark the Patriots needed to return to glory. The Seahawks defense will not make that easy, but I think the Pats will prevail. PATS, 23-20
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: The Giants scored a lot last week, but that was against the Browns. The 49ers is a lot tougher. The Giants defense allowed Cleveland to score 27 points, so San Fran will get opportunities to score as well. 49ERS, 31-17
Sunday night game: Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: The Packers have been having a rough year. Their defense is not stout, and their offense folds against tough defenses. Since "tough defense" is the trademark of the Texans, this will be a rough game for Rodgers and the Packers offense. TEXANS, 26-16
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Broncos offense is showing some life, but the defense still needs improvement. I'd love to see Denver win this game, but I don't think their defense can sufficiently slow the Chargers. CHARGERS, 30-23
Thursday night game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: The Titans are floundering, and the injury to Jake Locker makes things worse. Pittsburgh's offense is coming alive, and the defense is hungry. This will be a pretty one-sided game, perhaps more than the score reflects, as I expect the Steelers to turn over the ball once and for the Titans to capitalize on that. STEELERS, 27-13
Sunday early games:
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns have been steadily improving with Brandon Wheeden running the offense, and the defense is coming along, too. They could pull off the upset, but I'll stick with the Bengals. Not only do they have the better talent, but if the Browns win, it deserves to be an upset! BENGALS, 27-20
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens: The Cowboys had a week off, but I don't think that'll help them against Baltimore. The Cowboys offense has gotten a bit better this season, but the Ravens will hassle Tony Romo, and he collapses under pressure. The Cowboys defense has been inconsistent, so I'm not sure just how much the Ravens will score, so I'll pick a median number. RAVENS, 27-13
Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles have been turning the ball much too often for me to comfortably pick them, but I suspect this will be a close game, and Philly has an interesting tendency to win close games this season. EAGLES, 24-23
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: The Colts offense is coming alive, while the Jets is collapsing. Fans are clamoring for Tebow, but I don't know if that will help. It's the offensive line that is hurting the Jets. Tebow had a strong offensive line in Denver; he needs that to have the room to move. Without it, Tebow won't be too effective. COLTS, 27-16
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: KC was faltering before Cassel went down. Without him, the offense is listless. Tampa's defense could hold the Chiefs to a single field goal, but I'll give Jamal Charles more credit and ability to get them in field goal range. BUCS, 23-9
Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: Oakland may have had a bye week last week, but I don't think that helps them much. The Falcons have a potent offense, and the Raiders defense just hasn't been getting the job done this season. The Raiders offense still depends too much on Darren McFadden, although they are starting to spread the ball around. They may have prepared a couple of new plays this week, but it still won't be enough. FALCONS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins: The Rams are gaining strength, but they only seem to go that extra mile for divisional opponents. They could win this game, but Miami showed heart against Cincy last week, and they may continue that. This will likely be a close game with a few lead changes, but I'll pick the home team in a squeaker. DOLPHINS, 24-23
Sunday late games:
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals: Buffalo has not been showing up well recently. Arizona lost big to the Rams last week, but I think that'll just make them more determined to win this week. CARDS, 26-16
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: The Vikings have an excellent mix of strong offense and stingy defense. The Redskins defense is good, but if RGIII does not play this week, their chance of victory is slim. VIKES, 27-16
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: Defeating Peyton Manning, just like old times, may have been the spark the Patriots needed to return to glory. The Seahawks defense will not make that easy, but I think the Pats will prevail. PATS, 23-20
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: The Giants scored a lot last week, but that was against the Browns. The 49ers is a lot tougher. The Giants defense allowed Cleveland to score 27 points, so San Fran will get opportunities to score as well. 49ERS, 31-17
Sunday night game: Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: The Packers have been having a rough year. Their defense is not stout, and their offense folds against tough defenses. Since "tough defense" is the trademark of the Texans, this will be a rough game for Rodgers and the Packers offense. TEXANS, 26-16
Monday Night Football
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: The Broncos offense is showing some life, but the defense still needs improvement. I'd love to see Denver win this game, but I don't think their defense can sufficiently slow the Chargers. CHARGERS, 30-23
NFL 2012 Week 5 power rankings
The league is down to two unbeaten teams and one winless team. Two divisions are basically one-team races, and another is filled with teams with winning records.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (5-0) [1] : The Jets were the first team to give them a scare, but they remain unbeaten
2. Chicago Bears (4-1) [3] : Their second straight blowout shows their defensive power
3. Atlanta Falcons (5-0) [2] : Would they have won if RGIII hadn't left the game? We don't know, but they did win
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) [6] : Their second blowout of the season highlights some improving offense
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1) [4] : Where was the offense?
6. Minnesota Vikings (4-1) [11] : The Vikings engineered the third blowout of Sunday afternoon
7. New England Patriots (3-2) [7] : Tom Brady again emerged victorious in a battle against Peyton Manning
8. New York Giants (3-2) [10] : Strong offensive performance, but Cleveland's offense got some big plays in, too
9. Arizona Cardinals (4-1) [5] : Big first loss of the season as the Rams get a winning record and go up 2-0 in divisional play
10. San Diego Chargers (3-2) [8] : The Saints got their first win of the season at the expense of the Chargers, whose defense looked vulnerable
11. Seattle Seahawks (3-2) [12] : The success of the Seahawks' defense has national analysts questioning whether Cam Newton is really worth his hype
12. Denver Broncos (2-3) [9] : Denver fought New England hard, despite a loss
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) [16] : Philly lost their first close game at the hands of a Steelers defense that forced turnovers
14. St Louis Rams (3-2) [22] : A 2-0 divisional record and rare winning record illustrates the rebirth of this team
15. Washington Redskins (2-3) [13] : If RGIII stays out for a couple of weeks, we could witness the fall of the Redskins
16. Green Bay Packers (2-3) [14] : The Colts shocked them, and questions are arising surrounding the Pack's defense
Divisional rankings [Last week's rank]
1. NFC West [1] : With all four teams possessing winning records, and the entire division taking up 1/4 of the upper half of the league's power, this division, which has been a one-team pony for the past few years, is now the best
2. NFC North [2] : With two Top Ten teams and Green Bay's offense, this team has some power, but the questions surrounding Green Bay's defense makes one wonder how long this division will remain at Number Two
3. AFC North [3] : This division contains the only winless team, but even Cleveland showed power this week.
4. NFC East [4] : Washington holds the only losing record in this division, and they are still in the upper half of the league
5. NFC South [6] : Atlanta is the only team with a positive point differential, but the strength of Tampa Bay's defense and the resurgence of New Orleans provides some hope
6. AFC East [5] : Normally a strong division, none are living up to expectations
7. AFC West [7] : This division has two teams in the top half of the league, but Oakland and KC are near the bottom
8. AFC South [8] : Houston remains the only decent team in this division, but Indy's upset of Green Bay may start a reversal for their fortunes
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (5-0) [1] : The Jets were the first team to give them a scare, but they remain unbeaten
2. Chicago Bears (4-1) [3] : Their second straight blowout shows their defensive power
3. Atlanta Falcons (5-0) [2] : Would they have won if RGIII hadn't left the game? We don't know, but they did win
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) [6] : Their second blowout of the season highlights some improving offense
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1) [4] : Where was the offense?
6. Minnesota Vikings (4-1) [11] : The Vikings engineered the third blowout of Sunday afternoon
7. New England Patriots (3-2) [7] : Tom Brady again emerged victorious in a battle against Peyton Manning
8. New York Giants (3-2) [10] : Strong offensive performance, but Cleveland's offense got some big plays in, too
9. Arizona Cardinals (4-1) [5] : Big first loss of the season as the Rams get a winning record and go up 2-0 in divisional play
10. San Diego Chargers (3-2) [8] : The Saints got their first win of the season at the expense of the Chargers, whose defense looked vulnerable
11. Seattle Seahawks (3-2) [12] : The success of the Seahawks' defense has national analysts questioning whether Cam Newton is really worth his hype
12. Denver Broncos (2-3) [9] : Denver fought New England hard, despite a loss
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) [16] : Philly lost their first close game at the hands of a Steelers defense that forced turnovers
14. St Louis Rams (3-2) [22] : A 2-0 divisional record and rare winning record illustrates the rebirth of this team
15. Washington Redskins (2-3) [13] : If RGIII stays out for a couple of weeks, we could witness the fall of the Redskins
16. Green Bay Packers (2-3) [14] : The Colts shocked them, and questions are arising surrounding the Pack's defense
Divisional rankings [Last week's rank]
1. NFC West [1] : With all four teams possessing winning records, and the entire division taking up 1/4 of the upper half of the league's power, this division, which has been a one-team pony for the past few years, is now the best
2. NFC North [2] : With two Top Ten teams and Green Bay's offense, this team has some power, but the questions surrounding Green Bay's defense makes one wonder how long this division will remain at Number Two
3. AFC North [3] : This division contains the only winless team, but even Cleveland showed power this week.
4. NFC East [4] : Washington holds the only losing record in this division, and they are still in the upper half of the league
5. NFC South [6] : Atlanta is the only team with a positive point differential, but the strength of Tampa Bay's defense and the resurgence of New Orleans provides some hope
6. AFC East [5] : Normally a strong division, none are living up to expectations
7. AFC West [7] : This division has two teams in the top half of the league, but Oakland and KC are near the bottom
8. AFC South [8] : Houston remains the only decent team in this division, but Indy's upset of Green Bay may start a reversal for their fortunes
Sunday, October 7, 2012
NCAA 2012 Week 7 picks
There were plenty of upsets last week, both pure upsets and upsets by margins (which means games that should have been close were widely one-sided). "Pure" upsets saw Temple's first Big East conference victory since they left the conference, the first loss this season by Florida State (who was beaten by NC State), and Cal's first FBS victory after playing three previous opponents tough. The "marginal" upsets featured Arkansas' first SEC victory, a wipeout of Auburn. The SEC had a second marginal upset, as the featured game of Georgia against South Carolina was a complete destruction of Georgia, jeopardizing their National Championship hopes.
The Big XII had a couple of marginal upsets as well, and both involved Top 25 teams who lost. Iowa State, who had skulking outside the Top 25 all season, knocked off TCU in a huge 14-point victory. Oklahoma, who had not been winning impressively, did that this week, but outplaying Texas Tech and winning by 21 points. Surprisingly, that still wasn't enough to put them into the Top 25, but they are now much closer.
The Big Ten was the site of a marginal upset, as the two remaining Top 25 teams (after Michigan State) clashed and proved that Ohio State is the best Big Ten team this season by far. The Buckeyes had an offensive explosion, scoring 63 points against Nebraska. Unlike Baylor last week, 63 points was a winning score, as the Buckeyes held Nebraska to 38 points. That was more than any other team scored against Ohio State this season, so their offense is also strong, but their defense is now suspect.
Thursday night games
It's a triple threat night, as three games are featured.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Troy Trojans: The Hilltoppers are having a good season, while Troy is battling game after game. Troy can always be a threat, but I like the Hilltoppers' chances. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
UTEP Miners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa is having a good year, and are a favorite in Conference USA. At home, they can be a monster. TULSA by twelve
#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes: This is a horribly one-sided contest. Colorado is struggling at the bottom of the Pac-12, while Arizona State is an offensive giant. This won't be a nice game for the home town crowd. ARIZONA STATE by 26
Friday night: Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas: The Midshipmen stepped up last week, and I think they'll stay motivated. The Chippewas have some good games, but they are mostly having a tough season. NAVY by 17
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers: Missouri is having a tough season, and this game won't make it any easier for them. The Tide is rolling, and a bye week last week gave them unnecessary assistance. ALABAMA by lots
#3 South Carolina Gamecocks at #10 LSU Tigers: The Gamecocks made themselves a huge target last week by manhandling Georgia. If LSU finds their inner offense, they might surprise. However, they have played fairly anemic for most of the season, and it's been worse since SEC conference play has opened. I don't think they can win here. SOUTH CAROLINA by ten
#17 Stanford Cardinal at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I don't think the Cardinal will play a second consecutive overtime game, but that's only because the Irish won't need it. Stanford could win, but they've been too inconsistent for me to have enough confidence to pick them, NOTRE DAME by nine
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers played Michigan State tough, who played Ohio State tough, but things will be different this week. The Hoosiers are a scrappy team, but they are too small compared to the bulk of the Buckeyes, both offensively and defensively. The large defenders will stop Hoosier players on the first hit, and offensively they'll just push them out of the way. OHIO STATE by 23
#6 Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones: Every time Iowa State gets close to the Top 25, they get knocked back. Unless they surprise the visiting Wildcats, that setback will occur this week. The Wildcats are loaded for bear, and their offense will be too much for the Cyclones. KANSAS STATE by 14
#7 West Virginia Mountaineers at #16 Texas Tech Red Raiders: We know the Red Raiders defense isn't as good as Texas, so expect the Mountaineers to have another scoring blitz. The Red Raiders can score quickly, too, and the Mountaineers' weak defense opens them up. Tech could score the upset, but I think the Mountaineers score a bit faster, and will make the last score of the game. WEST VIRGINIA by four
#8 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores: The Gators just beat LSU. Do you really think the Commodores will give them much trouble? Nah, I don't either. FLORIDA by 20
#9 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners: Oh man, this is an intense rivalry. Texas rarely loses two games in a row, so I have to favor them just for that reason. However, watch out for Oklahoma. They finally exploded last week; if that was an indication that their offense has gotten over the hump, they will test Texas. TEXAS by twelve
#12 USC Trojans at Washington Huskies: Washington has already beaten Stanford this season, so USC cannot feel comfortable. Washington has a bit of a defensive problem, which should allow USC to outscore them, but this will be closer than Lane Kiffin will like. USC by eight
Boston College Eagles at #13 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State will be angry, and looking for an impressive win after their loss to NC State. Enter struggling BC, who are floundering at the bottom of the Atlantic division. The Seminoles get their wish. FLORIDA STATE by 23
Tennessee Volunteers at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs are having a tremendous season, and it should continue this week. They have a non-conference game next week, but then things get tough for them. Enjoy it while you can, guys. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 18
TCU Horned Frogs at #18 Baylor Bears: This will be a close game. Baylor's defense should allow TCU to have a good day offensively, but Baylor's offense will stretch the Horned Frogs' defense. This will be an exciting game, likely decided by the last team to score. That sounds like Baylor to me. BAYLOR by six
Fordham Rams (FCS) at #21 Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats are coming alive. Unfortunately, this victory won't help them in their Top 25 ranking, opening the door for teams like Texas A&M and Oregon State. CINCINNATI by 36
Utah Utes at #22 UCLA Bruins: Both teams are struggling in Pac-12 play. UCLA just suffered a tough loss to Cal. We'll see if that motivates them to win or starts them down a tunnel of despair. I'll pick UCLA, but if they don't pick up their game, it could be Utah's game to win. UCLA by six
Akron Zips at #23 Ohio Bobcats: Let's see, Ohio is unbeaten and Akron has not beaten a single FBS team. This one isn't hard to call. OHIO by 17
Syracuse Orange at #24 Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Orange pulled off a surprise upset of Pitt last week to put themselves in the upper half of the Big East conference. It won't last, but it was an impressive performance. RUTGERS by eleven
#25 Louisville Cardinals at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt is suffering from two conference losses, and looking for an advantage. Unfortunately they host unbeaten Louisville, who comes off a bye week. LOUISVILLE by 15
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Wildcats get a chance to redeem themselves from a crappy fourth quarter last week. They'll play a complete game this week, knocking off the Gophers. NORTHWESTERN by ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Iowa is too inconsistent to win this one. The tough Spartan defense will grind the Iowa offense to a halt, and the Spartans offense is starting to spark. The combination of elements puts Michigan State in the driver's seat. MICHIGAN STATE by 14
Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue will want revenge after their embarrassment against Michigan, but I'm not sure they'll get it. While Monte Ball is still not being as effective as he was in 2010 and 2011, the Badgers offense is starting to find its legs. Their defense still needs some work, but it's good enough to slow Purdue. WISCONSIN by eight
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines: As any Illinois alumnus will tell you, this is a bitter rivalry. If there is one team Illinois would beat that would make their season, it would be the Wolverines. Unfortunately, I don't think Illinois has the power to do it, even if some of their injured players come back for this game. MICHIGAN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies: Here are two amazing items: the Blue Devils are 5-1, and I favor them over the Hokies. Huh? Yup, Duke is showing power, and the Hokies are showing nothing but confusion. Duke has been there enough to know how to exploit it in someone else. DUKE bysix
Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles: The best team in the MAC West against the worst team in the MAC West. This one isn't hard to predict, although the point spread is. TOLEDO by 18
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes: The best offense in the ACC faces off against one of the best defenses. Normally I pick the defense to win in these contests, but North Carolina is just rolling over opponents. Also, Miami is still suffering from a negative point margin against FBS opponents, which demonstrates their anemic offense. NORTH CAROLINA by 23
Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Running Rebels: Nevada leads the Mountain West, while the only win for UNLV this season was against conference opponent Air Force. Nevada will load up against the defensively-challenged Wolf Pack. NEVADA by 21
Oregon State Beavers at BYU Cougars: Oregon State is unbeaten, but they haven't won impressively. BYU has some big wins under their 4-2 belt, which also illustrates their inconsistency. If they play well, they'll upset the Beavers. I think Oregon State will win, but it may be another close one. OREGON STATE by twelve
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos: 4-2 Fresno State takes on 4-1 Boise, and Fresno has actually had the better of most of their opponents. However, Boise has encountered some tougher opponents, which should have prepared them well for this game. BOISE STATE by six
Buffalo Bulls at Northern Illinois Huskies: Another match-up of a top MAC team and a MAC weakling. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 21
Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans: Utah State has a nuisance against non-WAC teams. Now they enter WAC play. That is usually a tough part of the season for them, but this Aggies team is well-loaded. So is San Jose, though, so I think the home team will win, albeit barely. SAN JOSE STATE by six
FCS Game of the Week: Youngstown State Penguins at Illinois State Redbirds: Illinois State is one of the leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference. That is an unusual position for them. Youngstown State has played closer games than usual, but are still 4-1 and contenders for the playoffs. They are used to position, and I think that experience will support them. YOUNGSTOWN STATE by eleven
GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M Aggies at #19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Tech enjoys their first week in my Top 25 (ever!), but will it last? The Bulldogs have been bullies against their opponents, but A&M has a sturdy defense. The Aggies' offense is strong, too, which gives them benefits on both sides of the ball. TEXAS A&M by eight
The Big XII had a couple of marginal upsets as well, and both involved Top 25 teams who lost. Iowa State, who had skulking outside the Top 25 all season, knocked off TCU in a huge 14-point victory. Oklahoma, who had not been winning impressively, did that this week, but outplaying Texas Tech and winning by 21 points. Surprisingly, that still wasn't enough to put them into the Top 25, but they are now much closer.
The Big Ten was the site of a marginal upset, as the two remaining Top 25 teams (after Michigan State) clashed and proved that Ohio State is the best Big Ten team this season by far. The Buckeyes had an offensive explosion, scoring 63 points against Nebraska. Unlike Baylor last week, 63 points was a winning score, as the Buckeyes held Nebraska to 38 points. That was more than any other team scored against Ohio State this season, so their offense is also strong, but their defense is now suspect.
Thursday night games
It's a triple threat night, as three games are featured.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Troy Trojans: The Hilltoppers are having a good season, while Troy is battling game after game. Troy can always be a threat, but I like the Hilltoppers' chances. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
UTEP Miners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa is having a good year, and are a favorite in Conference USA. At home, they can be a monster. TULSA by twelve
#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes: This is a horribly one-sided contest. Colorado is struggling at the bottom of the Pac-12, while Arizona State is an offensive giant. This won't be a nice game for the home town crowd. ARIZONA STATE by 26
Friday night: Navy Midshipmen at Central Michigan Chippewas: The Midshipmen stepped up last week, and I think they'll stay motivated. The Chippewas have some good games, but they are mostly having a tough season. NAVY by 17
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Missouri Tigers: Missouri is having a tough season, and this game won't make it any easier for them. The Tide is rolling, and a bye week last week gave them unnecessary assistance. ALABAMA by lots
#3 South Carolina Gamecocks at #10 LSU Tigers: The Gamecocks made themselves a huge target last week by manhandling Georgia. If LSU finds their inner offense, they might surprise. However, they have played fairly anemic for most of the season, and it's been worse since SEC conference play has opened. I don't think they can win here. SOUTH CAROLINA by ten
#17 Stanford Cardinal at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: I don't think the Cardinal will play a second consecutive overtime game, but that's only because the Irish won't need it. Stanford could win, but they've been too inconsistent for me to have enough confidence to pick them, NOTRE DAME by nine
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers played Michigan State tough, who played Ohio State tough, but things will be different this week. The Hoosiers are a scrappy team, but they are too small compared to the bulk of the Buckeyes, both offensively and defensively. The large defenders will stop Hoosier players on the first hit, and offensively they'll just push them out of the way. OHIO STATE by 23
#6 Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones: Every time Iowa State gets close to the Top 25, they get knocked back. Unless they surprise the visiting Wildcats, that setback will occur this week. The Wildcats are loaded for bear, and their offense will be too much for the Cyclones. KANSAS STATE by 14
#7 West Virginia Mountaineers at #16 Texas Tech Red Raiders: We know the Red Raiders defense isn't as good as Texas, so expect the Mountaineers to have another scoring blitz. The Red Raiders can score quickly, too, and the Mountaineers' weak defense opens them up. Tech could score the upset, but I think the Mountaineers score a bit faster, and will make the last score of the game. WEST VIRGINIA by four
#8 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores: The Gators just beat LSU. Do you really think the Commodores will give them much trouble? Nah, I don't either. FLORIDA by 20
#9 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners: Oh man, this is an intense rivalry. Texas rarely loses two games in a row, so I have to favor them just for that reason. However, watch out for Oklahoma. They finally exploded last week; if that was an indication that their offense has gotten over the hump, they will test Texas. TEXAS by twelve
#12 USC Trojans at Washington Huskies: Washington has already beaten Stanford this season, so USC cannot feel comfortable. Washington has a bit of a defensive problem, which should allow USC to outscore them, but this will be closer than Lane Kiffin will like. USC by eight
Boston College Eagles at #13 Florida State Seminoles: Florida State will be angry, and looking for an impressive win after their loss to NC State. Enter struggling BC, who are floundering at the bottom of the Atlantic division. The Seminoles get their wish. FLORIDA STATE by 23
Tennessee Volunteers at #15 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs are having a tremendous season, and it should continue this week. They have a non-conference game next week, but then things get tough for them. Enjoy it while you can, guys. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 18
TCU Horned Frogs at #18 Baylor Bears: This will be a close game. Baylor's defense should allow TCU to have a good day offensively, but Baylor's offense will stretch the Horned Frogs' defense. This will be an exciting game, likely decided by the last team to score. That sounds like Baylor to me. BAYLOR by six
Fordham Rams (FCS) at #21 Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats are coming alive. Unfortunately, this victory won't help them in their Top 25 ranking, opening the door for teams like Texas A&M and Oregon State. CINCINNATI by 36
Utah Utes at #22 UCLA Bruins: Both teams are struggling in Pac-12 play. UCLA just suffered a tough loss to Cal. We'll see if that motivates them to win or starts them down a tunnel of despair. I'll pick UCLA, but if they don't pick up their game, it could be Utah's game to win. UCLA by six
Akron Zips at #23 Ohio Bobcats: Let's see, Ohio is unbeaten and Akron has not beaten a single FBS team. This one isn't hard to call. OHIO by 17
Syracuse Orange at #24 Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Orange pulled off a surprise upset of Pitt last week to put themselves in the upper half of the Big East conference. It won't last, but it was an impressive performance. RUTGERS by eleven
#25 Louisville Cardinals at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt is suffering from two conference losses, and looking for an advantage. Unfortunately they host unbeaten Louisville, who comes off a bye week. LOUISVILLE by 15
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Wildcats get a chance to redeem themselves from a crappy fourth quarter last week. They'll play a complete game this week, knocking off the Gophers. NORTHWESTERN by ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans: Iowa is too inconsistent to win this one. The tough Spartan defense will grind the Iowa offense to a halt, and the Spartans offense is starting to spark. The combination of elements puts Michigan State in the driver's seat. MICHIGAN STATE by 14
Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue will want revenge after their embarrassment against Michigan, but I'm not sure they'll get it. While Monte Ball is still not being as effective as he was in 2010 and 2011, the Badgers offense is starting to find its legs. Their defense still needs some work, but it's good enough to slow Purdue. WISCONSIN by eight
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines: As any Illinois alumnus will tell you, this is a bitter rivalry. If there is one team Illinois would beat that would make their season, it would be the Wolverines. Unfortunately, I don't think Illinois has the power to do it, even if some of their injured players come back for this game. MICHIGAN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies: Here are two amazing items: the Blue Devils are 5-1, and I favor them over the Hokies. Huh? Yup, Duke is showing power, and the Hokies are showing nothing but confusion. Duke has been there enough to know how to exploit it in someone else. DUKE bysix
Toledo Rockets at Eastern Michigan Eagles: The best team in the MAC West against the worst team in the MAC West. This one isn't hard to predict, although the point spread is. TOLEDO by 18
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes: The best offense in the ACC faces off against one of the best defenses. Normally I pick the defense to win in these contests, but North Carolina is just rolling over opponents. Also, Miami is still suffering from a negative point margin against FBS opponents, which demonstrates their anemic offense. NORTH CAROLINA by 23
Nevada Wolf Pack at UNLV Running Rebels: Nevada leads the Mountain West, while the only win for UNLV this season was against conference opponent Air Force. Nevada will load up against the defensively-challenged Wolf Pack. NEVADA by 21
Oregon State Beavers at BYU Cougars: Oregon State is unbeaten, but they haven't won impressively. BYU has some big wins under their 4-2 belt, which also illustrates their inconsistency. If they play well, they'll upset the Beavers. I think Oregon State will win, but it may be another close one. OREGON STATE by twelve
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos: 4-2 Fresno State takes on 4-1 Boise, and Fresno has actually had the better of most of their opponents. However, Boise has encountered some tougher opponents, which should have prepared them well for this game. BOISE STATE by six
Buffalo Bulls at Northern Illinois Huskies: Another match-up of a top MAC team and a MAC weakling. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 21
Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans: Utah State has a nuisance against non-WAC teams. Now they enter WAC play. That is usually a tough part of the season for them, but this Aggies team is well-loaded. So is San Jose, though, so I think the home team will win, albeit barely. SAN JOSE STATE by six
FCS Game of the Week: Youngstown State Penguins at Illinois State Redbirds: Illinois State is one of the leaders of the Missouri Valley Conference. That is an unusual position for them. Youngstown State has played closer games than usual, but are still 4-1 and contenders for the playoffs. They are used to position, and I think that experience will support them. YOUNGSTOWN STATE by eleven
GAME OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M Aggies at #19 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Tech enjoys their first week in my Top 25 (ever!), but will it last? The Bulldogs have been bullies against their opponents, but A&M has a sturdy defense. The Aggies' offense is strong, too, which gives them benefits on both sides of the ball. TEXAS A&M by eight
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