The last week was all divisional contests, but there were fewer upsets than the previous week. San Diego lost, which allowed Baltimore to grab the remaining AFC playoff spot. Carolina shocked Atlanta to win the NFC South; the rest of the games involving playoff teams went basically as expected.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-4) [1] : Top seed in the AFC
2. Seattle Seahawks (12-4) [2] : Top seed in the NFC
3. Green Bay Packers (12-4) [3]
4. Denver Broncos (12-4) [4]
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) [5]
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) [6]
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) [7]
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) [8]
9. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) [10] : Best non-playoff team
10. Detroit Lions (11-5) [9]
11. Houston Texans (9-7) [13] : Best nine-win team
12. Buffalo Bills (9-7) [14]
13. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) [15]
14. Arizona Cardinals (11-5) [11] : Worst eleven-win team; lost four of last six games
15. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) [12]
16. Miami Dolphins (8-8) [17]
22. Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
Wild Card Playoffs
#5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at #4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1) : The Cards have the worst recent record coming into the playoffs. Momentum is important, and it's on the side of the Panthers. However, the Cardinals defense is still stiff, and Cam Newton does not respond well to tough defenses. That side of the ball should give the Cardinals the victory. CARDINALS, 17-13
#6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) : These two teams split their appearances during the regular season, and the home team won in each. In fact, the home team was dominant in both, winning by 20 points in each contest. While I think this game will be closer, I have to favor the home team here. Big Ben has been on a roll, and few starting QBs rely on momentum more than Ben Roethlisberger. The defense has stiffened since the loss to the Saints, so they should match up well against the Ravens' defense. STEELERS, 27-20
#5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at #4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) : The Bengals were not happen to learn that their playoff opponent would be Indy, as the Colts demolished them earlier this season. I think that can happen again. Andy Dalton has shown brilliance in the past few games, but he is still prone to errors. The Bengals secondary has some holes, and that's where the Colts will exploit them. COLTS, 31-20
#6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at #3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4) : Detroit has some great players on offense, but Dallas has just been a behemoth this season. This team overcame their traditional December slump by having enough players who can play well, they can compensate for Romo's end-of-season decline. I don't know how far this offense can take the team (some people are looking at NFC Champion), but it will get them to the Divisional round. COWBOYS, 30-24
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Sunday, December 28, 2014
NCAA Bowl picks part II
As I write this, I have an even record in picking the bowl games. The last few have been close-scoring affairs, including one overtime game won by a missed PAT. Conference USA has already completed with a 4-1 record; that 80% success rate may be tough to beat. The Mountain West and MAC have guaranteed losing bowl records and the Pac-12 is currently unbeaten at 3-0.
I left off with December 30th bowls, so let's pick up where I left off:
Dec 31
PEACH BOWL: #11 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) v #4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) : TCU has a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the playoff, so they want to slaughter whoever they play. The fact that they face a former Number One ranked team will simply inspire them further. Ole Miss has a decent defense, but I don't think they can overcome the offensive firepower they will face here. TCU by 16
FIESTA BOWL: #15 Boise State Broncos (11-2) v #18 Arizona Wildcats (10-3) : The Broncos are the last chance for the Mountain West Conference to impress in these bowl games. I picked this game before the conference did so poorly in earlier bowl games, and I won't change my pick. The Broncos have a high-powered offense that is well-balanced, so they can attack you on the ground or in the air. Arizona has beaten some good teams, but aside from Washington State and Utah, their defense keep opponents in the game. The Broncos offense is likely to overwhelm that defense, so I favor them. BOISE STATE by ten
ORANGE BOWL: #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) at #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) : The Yellow Jackets have no passing game to speak of (122nd out of 125 FBS teams). They rely on a pounding ground game. Against one of the best defensive lines in the country, however? That won't work. The Bulldogs should score well enough to beat a Yellow Jackets team that will be lucky to gain 150 total yards in the game. MISS STATE by 18
Jan 1
I'm pulling the playoff semi-final games out at putting them at the bottom of this column.
OUTBACK BOWL: #22 Auburn Tigers (8-4) v #12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) : If you look at their last games, Auburn played tough in the Iron Bowl while Wisconsin was shut out by Ohio State. That's all most SEC fans see. Look at the Badgers body of work, though, and you see a team that wears down defenses with the best ground game in the country, and has just enough talent in the passing game to keep the runners rested. Hidden in all of that is the fact that the Badgers defense is a Top Ten unit. SEC defenders are known for speed, but this will be an endurance test, and I like Wisconsin's chances in that situation. Also, former coach and current Athletic Director Barry Alvarez coaches this game after the departure of Gary Anderson, and Alvarez always had some tricks up his sleeves. WISCONSIN by 13
COTTON BOWL: #7 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) v #6 Baylor Bears (11-1) : I'd love to pick the Spartans for the upset, and they tend to play well in bowl games, but high-powered and quick-firing offenses have been the undoing of this defense in the past two years. They led against Oregon, but a second-half surge by the Ducks cost them the game. I fear Baylor will engineer the same thing. If the Spartans learned from the Oregon loss, though, they might pull off the upset. BAYLOR by 12
CITRUS BOWL: #25 Missouri Tigers (10-3) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) : Geez, talk about a one-sided match-up! Just due to records, people will think Minnesota doesn't stand a chance. The Gophers were a tricky team this season, though, pulling out all the stops against tougher opponents. The Gophers may hang in there until midway in the fourth quarter, but a couple of late scores will propel Missouri to the win. MISSOURI by 13
Jan 2
ARMED FORCES BOWL: Houston Cougars (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : Pitt was a decent team this year, but too inconsistent to have confidence that they can match up against a physical Houston team. HOUSTON by ten
TAXSLAYER BOWL: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) : A rare Big Ten bowl game where the Big Ten team has a better record. Half of Tennessee's wins were against weak non-conference opponents. In conference they beat winless Vandy and a pathetic Kentucky team. Iowa, on the other hand, battled for their division title until the bitter end. IOWA by 12
ALAMO BOWL: #17 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) v UCLA Bruins (9-3) : UCLA is hoping to finish a season of disappointment. They thought they'd compete for the conference title, but that didn't happen. QB Brett Huntley did not progress as expected, and the Bruins were inconsistent in their play. Unfortunately, they face a Wildcats team that competed very favorably in the high-powered Big XII conference. K State will roll, as their offense is too strong for the UCLA defense. KANSAS STATE by 20
CACTUS BOWL: Washington Huskies (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : The Cowboys will keep this game closer than expected, as they competed against the strong teams in the Big XII. Washington could not beat the best teams in the Pac-12, but they played well against all of them except Arizona State. That strength of competition will serve the Huskies well in this bout. WASHINGTON by six
Jan 3 -- BIRMINGHAM BOWL: East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Florida Gators (6-6) : I'm going to do something radical, and pick against an SEC team playing a non-Power 5 team. The Gators struggled all season with their young team. The Pirates defense is talented, and will show the Gators things these young players haven't seen. This will be a low-scoring game, but definitely one-sided. EAST CAROLINA by nine
Jan 4 -- GODADDY BOWL: Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) : Key game for the Rockets and the MAC. A Rockets loss would be devastating for the conference. Trust me, that is on their mind. The Rockets have a slightly better offense but the Red Wolves have a slightly better defense, so these two are fairly evenly matched. Expect a close game, possibly another overtime game. If it does go to extra time, I favor the deeper bench of the Rockets. TOLEDO by three
Playoffs
ROSE BOWL: #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) v #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) : The Ducks are favored, and I have to agree with that. The Ducks are the type of team that Florida State cannot withstand. They have a potent offense that frequently scores; they have a very high success rate. QB Marcus Mariota has been playing flawlessly; the Seminoles defense relies on turnovers to help bring Florida State back later in the game. They won't be able to do that here. Oregon will take an early lead, as many of the Seminoles foes have done, scoring on their first three possessions. By the time Jameis Winston and company start clicking, they will face a 17-point or larger deficit. They've come back from that, but not if the Seminoles defense can't stop the Ducks offense. OREGON by 16
SUGAR BOWL: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) : I'd love to think Ohio State could win this game, especially after shutting out Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama has too many tools. The Buckeyes will stop their running game, and suppress Amari Cooper for a while, but the Tide will find ways to move. The Tide defense will rush and stymie QB Cardale Jones, who will start to lose his cool. ALABAMA by 12
CHAMPIONSHIP: I have to consider several combinations, as we don't know who will win. Let's start with my projected winners, and look at Oregon v Alabama. The problem is Oregon's weaker defense. A Championship game between those two will be an offensive showdown, which seems to benefit Oregon. However, Alabama won high-scoring battles (remember the Iron Bowl?) too, and their defense is fast enough to compete with Oregon. It would be a close game, but I'd favor ALABAMA in that game.
What if Florida State wins? It won't be close. Alabama's defense is stiff and will prevent a Seminoles comeback; the Tide defense played best in the second half, and especially in the fourth quarter. ALABAMA again.
What if Alabama is shocked by Ohio State? The key there is whether JT Barrett is healthy by Jan 12th. If he is, will they bring him in cold? Given the fact that Cardale Jones would have beaten Alabama, Coach Meyer will likely keep him in there, but have Barrett available to spell him. That would help against a challenge like Oregon, where they will try to wear down opponents. The Buckeyes defense is deep enough that Oregon won't exhaust their players. Ohio State's only loss was due to a poor game on the part of JT Barrett; if the QB is "on", Ohio State is tough to beat. No matter whether they face Oregon or Florida State, I'd have to favor them if they get past Alabama.
Therefore, the winner of the Sugar Bowl is my pick for the National Champion.
I left off with December 30th bowls, so let's pick up where I left off:
Dec 31
PEACH BOWL: #11 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) v #4 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) : TCU has a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the playoff, so they want to slaughter whoever they play. The fact that they face a former Number One ranked team will simply inspire them further. Ole Miss has a decent defense, but I don't think they can overcome the offensive firepower they will face here. TCU by 16
FIESTA BOWL: #15 Boise State Broncos (11-2) v #18 Arizona Wildcats (10-3) : The Broncos are the last chance for the Mountain West Conference to impress in these bowl games. I picked this game before the conference did so poorly in earlier bowl games, and I won't change my pick. The Broncos have a high-powered offense that is well-balanced, so they can attack you on the ground or in the air. Arizona has beaten some good teams, but aside from Washington State and Utah, their defense keep opponents in the game. The Broncos offense is likely to overwhelm that defense, so I favor them. BOISE STATE by ten
ORANGE BOWL: #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) at #10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) : The Yellow Jackets have no passing game to speak of (122nd out of 125 FBS teams). They rely on a pounding ground game. Against one of the best defensive lines in the country, however? That won't work. The Bulldogs should score well enough to beat a Yellow Jackets team that will be lucky to gain 150 total yards in the game. MISS STATE by 18
Jan 1
I'm pulling the playoff semi-final games out at putting them at the bottom of this column.
OUTBACK BOWL: #22 Auburn Tigers (8-4) v #12 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) : If you look at their last games, Auburn played tough in the Iron Bowl while Wisconsin was shut out by Ohio State. That's all most SEC fans see. Look at the Badgers body of work, though, and you see a team that wears down defenses with the best ground game in the country, and has just enough talent in the passing game to keep the runners rested. Hidden in all of that is the fact that the Badgers defense is a Top Ten unit. SEC defenders are known for speed, but this will be an endurance test, and I like Wisconsin's chances in that situation. Also, former coach and current Athletic Director Barry Alvarez coaches this game after the departure of Gary Anderson, and Alvarez always had some tricks up his sleeves. WISCONSIN by 13
COTTON BOWL: #7 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) v #6 Baylor Bears (11-1) : I'd love to pick the Spartans for the upset, and they tend to play well in bowl games, but high-powered and quick-firing offenses have been the undoing of this defense in the past two years. They led against Oregon, but a second-half surge by the Ducks cost them the game. I fear Baylor will engineer the same thing. If the Spartans learned from the Oregon loss, though, they might pull off the upset. BAYLOR by 12
CITRUS BOWL: #25 Missouri Tigers (10-3) v Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) : Geez, talk about a one-sided match-up! Just due to records, people will think Minnesota doesn't stand a chance. The Gophers were a tricky team this season, though, pulling out all the stops against tougher opponents. The Gophers may hang in there until midway in the fourth quarter, but a couple of late scores will propel Missouri to the win. MISSOURI by 13
Jan 2
ARMED FORCES BOWL: Houston Cougars (7-5) v Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) : Pitt was a decent team this year, but too inconsistent to have confidence that they can match up against a physical Houston team. HOUSTON by ten
TAXSLAYER BOWL: Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) v Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) : A rare Big Ten bowl game where the Big Ten team has a better record. Half of Tennessee's wins were against weak non-conference opponents. In conference they beat winless Vandy and a pathetic Kentucky team. Iowa, on the other hand, battled for their division title until the bitter end. IOWA by 12
ALAMO BOWL: #17 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) v UCLA Bruins (9-3) : UCLA is hoping to finish a season of disappointment. They thought they'd compete for the conference title, but that didn't happen. QB Brett Huntley did not progress as expected, and the Bruins were inconsistent in their play. Unfortunately, they face a Wildcats team that competed very favorably in the high-powered Big XII conference. K State will roll, as their offense is too strong for the UCLA defense. KANSAS STATE by 20
CACTUS BOWL: Washington Huskies (8-4) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6) : The Cowboys will keep this game closer than expected, as they competed against the strong teams in the Big XII. Washington could not beat the best teams in the Pac-12, but they played well against all of them except Arizona State. That strength of competition will serve the Huskies well in this bout. WASHINGTON by six
Jan 3 -- BIRMINGHAM BOWL: East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Florida Gators (6-6) : I'm going to do something radical, and pick against an SEC team playing a non-Power 5 team. The Gators struggled all season with their young team. The Pirates defense is talented, and will show the Gators things these young players haven't seen. This will be a low-scoring game, but definitely one-sided. EAST CAROLINA by nine
Jan 4 -- GODADDY BOWL: Toledo Rockets (8-4) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) : Key game for the Rockets and the MAC. A Rockets loss would be devastating for the conference. Trust me, that is on their mind. The Rockets have a slightly better offense but the Red Wolves have a slightly better defense, so these two are fairly evenly matched. Expect a close game, possibly another overtime game. If it does go to extra time, I favor the deeper bench of the Rockets. TOLEDO by three
Playoffs
ROSE BOWL: #5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) v #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) : The Ducks are favored, and I have to agree with that. The Ducks are the type of team that Florida State cannot withstand. They have a potent offense that frequently scores; they have a very high success rate. QB Marcus Mariota has been playing flawlessly; the Seminoles defense relies on turnovers to help bring Florida State back later in the game. They won't be able to do that here. Oregon will take an early lead, as many of the Seminoles foes have done, scoring on their first three possessions. By the time Jameis Winston and company start clicking, they will face a 17-point or larger deficit. They've come back from that, but not if the Seminoles defense can't stop the Ducks offense. OREGON by 16
SUGAR BOWL: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) : I'd love to think Ohio State could win this game, especially after shutting out Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, but Alabama has too many tools. The Buckeyes will stop their running game, and suppress Amari Cooper for a while, but the Tide will find ways to move. The Tide defense will rush and stymie QB Cardale Jones, who will start to lose his cool. ALABAMA by 12
CHAMPIONSHIP: I have to consider several combinations, as we don't know who will win. Let's start with my projected winners, and look at Oregon v Alabama. The problem is Oregon's weaker defense. A Championship game between those two will be an offensive showdown, which seems to benefit Oregon. However, Alabama won high-scoring battles (remember the Iron Bowl?) too, and their defense is fast enough to compete with Oregon. It would be a close game, but I'd favor ALABAMA in that game.
What if Florida State wins? It won't be close. Alabama's defense is stiff and will prevent a Seminoles comeback; the Tide defense played best in the second half, and especially in the fourth quarter. ALABAMA again.
What if Alabama is shocked by Ohio State? The key there is whether JT Barrett is healthy by Jan 12th. If he is, will they bring him in cold? Given the fact that Cardale Jones would have beaten Alabama, Coach Meyer will likely keep him in there, but have Barrett available to spell him. That would help against a challenge like Oregon, where they will try to wear down opponents. The Buckeyes defense is deep enough that Oregon won't exhaust their players. Ohio State's only loss was due to a poor game on the part of JT Barrett; if the QB is "on", Ohio State is tough to beat. No matter whether they face Oregon or Florida State, I'd have to favor them if they get past Alabama.
Therefore, the winner of the Sugar Bowl is my pick for the National Champion.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 16 Power Rankings and Week 17 picks
One major takeaway from Week 16 -- divisional games screw up records. These teams know each other, so it almost doesn't matter what someone's record is coming into the game. Lots of unpredictable results happen.
The playoff picture became much clearer. Coming into the week, we knew the winners of three AFC divisional and one NFC team had clinched the playoffs. Now, we know five of the six playoff teams in each conference and the number one seed in the AFC is clinched. The New England Patriots will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver can clinch the second seed with a win this week, and they are at home against Oakland. Cincy and Pittsburgh play for the remaining AFC title and for third seed. Colts have the fourth seed. The last AFC playoff spot goes to San Diego if they win. A Ravens win and Chargers loss sends Baltimore to the playoffs. Houston can go if the Texans win and both the Chargers and Ravens lose. KC is the only other contender, who goes if all three lose and they win.
The NFC has only one division title crowned -- Dallas has won the East and the number three seed. Detroit and Green Bay play for the North title. Seattle captures the West with a win, and also gains the number one seed. The number two seed goes to the NFC North winner, who can win the number one seed if Seattle loses. The number four seed goes to the NFC South winner, determined by the winner of the Carolina v Atlanta clash. The NFC West and NFC North runners-up are the wildcards, and the seeding will be determined by head-to-head or conference record as follows: Seattle over Green Bay, Detroit over Seattle, Arizona over Detroit, Arizona over Green Bay.
Top Twelve [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) [1] : They may have squeaked by the Jets this week, but they have the best record in the league
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [5] : Dominance over Arizona gives them best shot for number one seed
3. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [3] : Strong win, but offense should have done better against Tampa Bay
4. Denver Broncos (11-4) [2] : Shocking loss and dismal performance by Peyton, but still in drivers' seat for second seed
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) [8] : Captured NFC East crown and successfully overcame December jinx
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [10] : Stronger team heading into AFC North showdown
7. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [4] : Utterly demolished by Dallas and consigned to the fourth seed
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) [6] : Could be the best team left out of the playoffs
9. Detroit Lions (11-4) [11] : Despite near loss to Chicago, in line to win division
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [9] : Their loss to Washington helped Dallas win the division a week early
11. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) [7] : Demolished by Seattle, they need help to win NFC West, or be fifth seed
12. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) [15] : The win over Denver gains them AFC North lead
Best NFC South team:
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Two teams in the playoffs and a third contending - no other division has a shot at three playoff teams
2. NFC West [1] : Possible location of Number One seed in the NFC
3 (tie). NFC North [4] : Close losses by Chicago and Minnesota and the leaders playing for first round bye
3 (tie). NFC East [6] : Division jumps up with strong wins by Dallas and the Giants
5. AFC East [3] : Pats looked tired against Jets, Buffalo lost to Oakland, and Miami barely beat Minnesota. They went from three potential playoff teams to only one in a single week
6. AFC West [5] : Denver's pathetic performance hurt, and San Diego needed overtime to beat the 49ers
7. AFC South [7] : Texans won - only highlight
8. NFC South [8] : Carolina should have beaten Cleveland by more, even with Hoyer in for Manziel
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots already have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so Coach Belichick is likely to rest many of his key guys. He won't be able to keep Tom Brady off the field, but backup offensive and defensive guys will get playing time. That should allow Buffalo to finish the season with a win. BILLS, 23-17
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Despite a losing record, Teddy Bridgewater has had a decent rookie season. A win would be the best way to finish the season. A Bears loss would also point out that they need a new direction. VIKINGS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Manziel's injury has put Hoyer back under center, and he had a decent game last week. Unfortunately, "decent" won't be good enough against the tough Ravens, who are battling for a playoff spot. RAVENS, 26-13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys have no shot for a playoff bye, so normally I'd say they should rest their players; they should certainly rest DeMarco Murray. However, most of the Cowboys will want to play against their rivals, which means the Redskins will be destroyed. COWBOYS, 31-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts cannot get a playoff bye, and even third seed is unlikely. They will likely rest some players. However, I think the Titans are bad enough to lose even with the Colts resting. COLTS, 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have an outside chance at the playoffs, not that they'd need that incentive to beat the Jags. TEXANS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints aren't playing for anything other than pride. For the Bucs, they lost that about four weeks ago. SAINTS, 27-20
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: By now, I think the Jets know that they aren't playing to save Rex Ryan's job -- he'll be gone. The players love him, so they may want to give him a win for his final game. They failed to give him a win in their final home game, so they will stretch Miami. The Dolphins won't go quietly, though, and they could sneak up on them in the fourth quarter. DOLPHINS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Coach Kelly doesn't know how to quit, so the Eagles won't slow down in this final game, even though they have no shot at the playoffs. EAGLES, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's an interesting game, perhaps the most interesting of the early games. The Chargers need a win to reach the playoffs. The Chiefs would love to play spoiler, as well as having an outside chance at the playoffs. This will be a classic slugfest, with the lead changing several times. While I normally pick the home team in such bouts, I'll give a slight edge to San Diego. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The Cards know they could still win the NFC West, although they would need help. That will keep them fighting. Their defense is their strength. That defense is stronger than the 49ers, whose offense is sputtering. If Harbaugh and Kaepernick can regain their form, the 49ers could win. However, I don't think they've figured out what is wrong, so I don't see a return to form coming. CARDINALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have an unbeaten divisional record, and are certainly poised to keep that and win the title with a 7-9 record. Carolina struggled against Cleveland last week, so I like Atlanta even more. FALCONS, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: This will be a great battle! The winner captures the NFC North crown and a playoff bye, so both teams will be primed. The Packers offense has been explosive all year. While the Lions defense will be fierce, I think the Pack has just too many weapons. PACKERS, 23-21
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland would love to play spoiler, but the Broncos want a strong game to propel them into the playoffs. Expect an offensive explosion, more than the Raiders defense can handle. BRONCOS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: One team that has not feared the 12th Man is the Rams. They will play tough again this year, but Seattle has been getting better each week. Knowing they have the top seed on the line, their defense will be unstoppable. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
Sunday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: After a shutout and then shut down of Peyton Manning, the Bengals come into this game with great momentum. The Steelers have been unbearable at this season, though, averaging nearly 20 points more than on the road. While Cincy will fight hard for that division title, I think the Steelers will pull this one out. STEELERS, 26-23
The playoff picture became much clearer. Coming into the week, we knew the winners of three AFC divisional and one NFC team had clinched the playoffs. Now, we know five of the six playoff teams in each conference and the number one seed in the AFC is clinched. The New England Patriots will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver can clinch the second seed with a win this week, and they are at home against Oakland. Cincy and Pittsburgh play for the remaining AFC title and for third seed. Colts have the fourth seed. The last AFC playoff spot goes to San Diego if they win. A Ravens win and Chargers loss sends Baltimore to the playoffs. Houston can go if the Texans win and both the Chargers and Ravens lose. KC is the only other contender, who goes if all three lose and they win.
The NFC has only one division title crowned -- Dallas has won the East and the number three seed. Detroit and Green Bay play for the North title. Seattle captures the West with a win, and also gains the number one seed. The number two seed goes to the NFC North winner, who can win the number one seed if Seattle loses. The number four seed goes to the NFC South winner, determined by the winner of the Carolina v Atlanta clash. The NFC West and NFC North runners-up are the wildcards, and the seeding will be determined by head-to-head or conference record as follows: Seattle over Green Bay, Detroit over Seattle, Arizona over Detroit, Arizona over Green Bay.
Top Twelve [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) [1] : They may have squeaked by the Jets this week, but they have the best record in the league
2. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) [5] : Dominance over Arizona gives them best shot for number one seed
3. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [3] : Strong win, but offense should have done better against Tampa Bay
4. Denver Broncos (11-4) [2] : Shocking loss and dismal performance by Peyton, but still in drivers' seat for second seed
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) [8] : Captured NFC East crown and successfully overcame December jinx
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) [10] : Stronger team heading into AFC North showdown
7. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [4] : Utterly demolished by Dallas and consigned to the fourth seed
8. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) [6] : Could be the best team left out of the playoffs
9. Detroit Lions (11-4) [11] : Despite near loss to Chicago, in line to win division
10. Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) [9] : Their loss to Washington helped Dallas win the division a week early
11. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) [7] : Demolished by Seattle, they need help to win NFC West, or be fifth seed
12. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) [15] : The win over Denver gains them AFC North lead
Best NFC South team:
19. Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : Two teams in the playoffs and a third contending - no other division has a shot at three playoff teams
2. NFC West [1] : Possible location of Number One seed in the NFC
3 (tie). NFC North [4] : Close losses by Chicago and Minnesota and the leaders playing for first round bye
3 (tie). NFC East [6] : Division jumps up with strong wins by Dallas and the Giants
5. AFC East [3] : Pats looked tired against Jets, Buffalo lost to Oakland, and Miami barely beat Minnesota. They went from three potential playoff teams to only one in a single week
6. AFC West [5] : Denver's pathetic performance hurt, and San Diego needed overtime to beat the 49ers
7. AFC South [7] : Texans won - only highlight
8. NFC South [8] : Carolina should have beaten Cleveland by more, even with Hoyer in for Manziel
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: The Patriots already have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, so Coach Belichick is likely to rest many of his key guys. He won't be able to keep Tom Brady off the field, but backup offensive and defensive guys will get playing time. That should allow Buffalo to finish the season with a win. BILLS, 23-17
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Despite a losing record, Teddy Bridgewater has had a decent rookie season. A win would be the best way to finish the season. A Bears loss would also point out that they need a new direction. VIKINGS, 26-23
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Manziel's injury has put Hoyer back under center, and he had a decent game last week. Unfortunately, "decent" won't be good enough against the tough Ravens, who are battling for a playoff spot. RAVENS, 26-13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Cowboys have no shot for a playoff bye, so normally I'd say they should rest their players; they should certainly rest DeMarco Murray. However, most of the Cowboys will want to play against their rivals, which means the Redskins will be destroyed. COWBOYS, 31-20
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: The Colts cannot get a playoff bye, and even third seed is unlikely. They will likely rest some players. However, I think the Titans are bad enough to lose even with the Colts resting. COLTS, 20-17
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: The Texans have an outside chance at the playoffs, not that they'd need that incentive to beat the Jags. TEXANS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Saints aren't playing for anything other than pride. For the Bucs, they lost that about four weeks ago. SAINTS, 27-20
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: By now, I think the Jets know that they aren't playing to save Rex Ryan's job -- he'll be gone. The players love him, so they may want to give him a win for his final game. They failed to give him a win in their final home game, so they will stretch Miami. The Dolphins won't go quietly, though, and they could sneak up on them in the fourth quarter. DOLPHINS, 23-17
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Coach Kelly doesn't know how to quit, so the Eagles won't slow down in this final game, even though they have no shot at the playoffs. EAGLES, 27-23
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Here's an interesting game, perhaps the most interesting of the early games. The Chargers need a win to reach the playoffs. The Chiefs would love to play spoiler, as well as having an outside chance at the playoffs. This will be a classic slugfest, with the lead changing several times. While I normally pick the home team in such bouts, I'll give a slight edge to San Diego. CHARGERS, 24-23
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The Cards know they could still win the NFC West, although they would need help. That will keep them fighting. Their defense is their strength. That defense is stronger than the 49ers, whose offense is sputtering. If Harbaugh and Kaepernick can regain their form, the 49ers could win. However, I don't think they've figured out what is wrong, so I don't see a return to form coming. CARDINALS, 20-17
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons have an unbeaten divisional record, and are certainly poised to keep that and win the title with a 7-9 record. Carolina struggled against Cleveland last week, so I like Atlanta even more. FALCONS, 20-17
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: This will be a great battle! The winner captures the NFC North crown and a playoff bye, so both teams will be primed. The Packers offense has been explosive all year. While the Lions defense will be fierce, I think the Pack has just too many weapons. PACKERS, 23-21
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Oakland would love to play spoiler, but the Broncos want a strong game to propel them into the playoffs. Expect an offensive explosion, more than the Raiders defense can handle. BRONCOS, 30-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: One team that has not feared the 12th Man is the Rams. They will play tough again this year, but Seattle has been getting better each week. Knowing they have the top seed on the line, their defense will be unstoppable. SEAHAWKS, 23-17
Sunday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: After a shutout and then shut down of Peyton Manning, the Bengals come into this game with great momentum. The Steelers have been unbearable at this season, though, averaging nearly 20 points more than on the road. While Cincy will fight hard for that division title, I think the Steelers will pull this one out. STEELERS, 26-23
Friday, December 19, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 16 picks
I'm picking a lot of visiting teams this week. That always makes me nervous.
Thursday night: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Does anyone really care who wins this game? Oh, perhaps the Raiders or Jets, who will be competing with the loser for the Number One draft pick. Other than that, this game won't draw a big crowd. TITANS, 17-16
Saturday games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: After losing two in a row, the Eagles need a strong victory to get back on track. Given the problems having in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure how much enthusiasm these players really have to win. EAGLES, 27-17
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are not living up to potential. Will all of the media coverage, as well as the incentive of beating the team from nearby San Diego, get them motivated? Perhaps, but previous motivational opportunities haven't worked, so I can't believe any this time will. CHARGERS, 21-17
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Probably the battle for the NFC South, since the Saints face the Bucs next week. A Saints win basically clinches a divisional title, and the probability that they will not have a losing season. Just for the sake of the integrity of the playoffs, I'm hoping for that. SAINTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: JJ Watt has been a dynamic player, but the Ravens are better manned both defensively and offensively. RAVENS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: Here's a fun game to pick! If Manziel was still on the bench, I'd pick Cleveland quickly, but he brings these guys down. Carolina can be their own worst enemy, too, but I like their chances better, especially since Cam Newton returns under center. Besides, I need to pick more home teams. PANTHERS, 16-14
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: The Bears have actually scored more points than Detroit this season, but their porous defense gives their opponents a great chance to score more than normal, and that will fuel the Lions. LIONS, 31-20
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This edition of the "Battle of the Bays" should be an easy victory for the Pack. They'll need it, as they face the Lions next week for the NFC North title. PACKERS, 30-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: KC has power, but the Steelers at home have been brutal this season. KC's defense will have their hands full with this team at home, who has scored more than 30 points in five home games. They may not do that against the Chiefs' defense, but they'll score enough to win. STEELERS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: Another team with a strong defense, Miami has also been putting up impressive numbers, thanks to a banner year by Ryan Tannehill. That defense will bother Teddy Bridgewater, who is having the best year of all rookie QBs. DOLPHINS, 21-13
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets are competing for the Number One pick. This game will help. PATRIOTS, 31-16
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are also in the running for the top draft pick. Buffalo's defense will keep them in that race. BILLS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: This squad of Cowboys seems strong enough to prevent their traditional December slump. They say they will play DeMarco Murray, but how well can he hold the ball with his broken hand? Two turnovers may turn the tide against them, and help the Colts. COLTS, 30-23
New York Giants at St Louis Rams: The Rams should be able to hold back the Giants, although this is often the time of year when they make a resurgent march. RAMS, 20-16
Sunday night: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: This game could decide the NFC West. Arizona leads, but they are relying on their defense as the offense sputters with their third string QB. Seattle's defense has stiffened, which should make this an interesting contest. SEAHAWKS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Coming into this game, the Bengals will likely trail the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Following this game, they will trail them even more. The Broncos offense will overwhelm the Bengals defense, and the Bengals offense can't keep up with them. BRONCOS, 31-24
Thursday night: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Does anyone really care who wins this game? Oh, perhaps the Raiders or Jets, who will be competing with the loser for the Number One draft pick. Other than that, this game won't draw a big crowd. TITANS, 17-16
Saturday games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: After losing two in a row, the Eagles need a strong victory to get back on track. Given the problems having in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure how much enthusiasm these players really have to win. EAGLES, 27-17
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are not living up to potential. Will all of the media coverage, as well as the incentive of beating the team from nearby San Diego, get them motivated? Perhaps, but previous motivational opportunities haven't worked, so I can't believe any this time will. CHARGERS, 21-17
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Probably the battle for the NFC South, since the Saints face the Bucs next week. A Saints win basically clinches a divisional title, and the probability that they will not have a losing season. Just for the sake of the integrity of the playoffs, I'm hoping for that. SAINTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans: JJ Watt has been a dynamic player, but the Ravens are better manned both defensively and offensively. RAVENS, 23-20
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers: Here's a fun game to pick! If Manziel was still on the bench, I'd pick Cleveland quickly, but he brings these guys down. Carolina can be their own worst enemy, too, but I like their chances better, especially since Cam Newton returns under center. Besides, I need to pick more home teams. PANTHERS, 16-14
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: The Bears have actually scored more points than Detroit this season, but their porous defense gives their opponents a great chance to score more than normal, and that will fuel the Lions. LIONS, 31-20
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Bucs: This edition of the "Battle of the Bays" should be an easy victory for the Pack. They'll need it, as they face the Lions next week for the NFC North title. PACKERS, 30-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: KC has power, but the Steelers at home have been brutal this season. KC's defense will have their hands full with this team at home, who has scored more than 30 points in five home games. They may not do that against the Chiefs' defense, but they'll score enough to win. STEELERS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins: Another team with a strong defense, Miami has also been putting up impressive numbers, thanks to a banner year by Ryan Tannehill. That defense will bother Teddy Bridgewater, who is having the best year of all rookie QBs. DOLPHINS, 21-13
New England Patriots at New York Jets: The Jets are competing for the Number One pick. This game will help. PATRIOTS, 31-16
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are also in the running for the top draft pick. Buffalo's defense will keep them in that race. BILLS, 26-13
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys: This squad of Cowboys seems strong enough to prevent their traditional December slump. They say they will play DeMarco Murray, but how well can he hold the ball with his broken hand? Two turnovers may turn the tide against them, and help the Colts. COLTS, 30-23
New York Giants at St Louis Rams: The Rams should be able to hold back the Giants, although this is often the time of year when they make a resurgent march. RAMS, 20-16
Sunday night: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: This game could decide the NFC West. Arizona leads, but they are relying on their defense as the offense sputters with their third string QB. Seattle's defense has stiffened, which should make this an interesting contest. SEAHAWKS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Coming into this game, the Bengals will likely trail the Steelers for the AFC North lead. Following this game, they will trail them even more. The Broncos offense will overwhelm the Bengals defense, and the Bengals offense can't keep up with them. BRONCOS, 31-24
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 15 news and Power Rankings
Takeaways from Week 15:
1. The Cowboys seem to have overcome their December slump. Now let's see if they can overcome their playoff woes.
2. Something has happened to the Eagles defense. Two consecutive weeks they have allowed opponents to score plenty against them.
3. Speaking of defenses, the Chicago Bears, historically a tough defensive team, has the worst scoring defense in the league this year. That, more than anything, is an indication that it's time for a massive coaching change.
4. NOW will you all believe me about how bad Johnny Manziel really is?
I have expanded my Top Ten to the Top Half, so that playoff contenders can be ranked.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3) [1] : With Green Bay's loss, there is no doubt who the top team is
2. Denver Broncos (11-3) [3] : Defense still needs work, but that offense is tough to stop
3. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [2] : Buffalo's defense handed Aaron Rodgers his worst game ever, but they should bounce back
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) [4] : Like Denver, the defense lacks some punch, but the offense makes up for it
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) [6] : They keep improving as the playoffs approach. That momentum could be important
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [5] : Playoff contender, but behind in their own division
7. Arizona Cardinals (11-3) [8] : With this defense, it doesn't seem to matter who is under center
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) [9] : Dismantled Philly to take NFC East lead
9. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) [7] : Second straight loss brings them down
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) [11] : They don't win big, but they find ways to win
11. Detroit Lions (10-4) [10] : Not an impressive win, but they gained NFC North lead with Packers loss
12. Buffalo Bills (8-6) [14] : Kept playoff hopes alive by skunking Aaron Rodgers
13. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) [17] : Huge win, but they did play Oakland
14. Houston Texans (7-7) [12] : Not looking good for the team, especially with the loss of their QB
15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) [18]: Been a long time since the Bengals shut out anyone
16. San Diego Chargers (8-6) [15]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1 (tie). NFC West [1] : Despite the 49ers falling, Seattle and Arizona dominate the conference
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : Cleveland has ensured that not all the teams have winning records, but with three teams in the top half of the league, it's still a strong division. Likely to provide both wildcards
3. AFC East [3] : Huge win by Buffalo helped the division
4. NFC North [4] : Detroit was the only winner, and it was unimpressive. Gap between them and #5 is shrinking
5. AFC West [5] : Denver and KC won big, but both played divisional opponents, so their opponents fell
6. NFC East [6] : Beat up on each other
7. AFC South [7] : Jacksonville and Tennessee hung in there, but ultimately only Indy was a winner
8. NFC South [8] : Their highest ranked team is #19. Nuff said
1. The Cowboys seem to have overcome their December slump. Now let's see if they can overcome their playoff woes.
2. Something has happened to the Eagles defense. Two consecutive weeks they have allowed opponents to score plenty against them.
3. Speaking of defenses, the Chicago Bears, historically a tough defensive team, has the worst scoring defense in the league this year. That, more than anything, is an indication that it's time for a massive coaching change.
4. NOW will you all believe me about how bad Johnny Manziel really is?
I have expanded my Top Ten to the Top Half, so that playoff contenders can be ranked.
Top Half [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3) [1] : With Green Bay's loss, there is no doubt who the top team is
2. Denver Broncos (11-3) [3] : Defense still needs work, but that offense is tough to stop
3. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [2] : Buffalo's defense handed Aaron Rodgers his worst game ever, but they should bounce back
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-4) [4] : Like Denver, the defense lacks some punch, but the offense makes up for it
5. Seattle Seahawks (10-4) [6] : They keep improving as the playoffs approach. That momentum could be important
6. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [5] : Playoff contender, but behind in their own division
7. Arizona Cardinals (11-3) [8] : With this defense, it doesn't seem to matter who is under center
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-4) [9] : Dismantled Philly to take NFC East lead
9. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) [7] : Second straight loss brings them down
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) [11] : They don't win big, but they find ways to win
11. Detroit Lions (10-4) [10] : Not an impressive win, but they gained NFC North lead with Packers loss
12. Buffalo Bills (8-6) [14] : Kept playoff hopes alive by skunking Aaron Rodgers
13. Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) [17] : Huge win, but they did play Oakland
14. Houston Texans (7-7) [12] : Not looking good for the team, especially with the loss of their QB
15. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) [18]: Been a long time since the Bengals shut out anyone
16. San Diego Chargers (8-6) [15]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1 (tie). NFC West [1] : Despite the 49ers falling, Seattle and Arizona dominate the conference
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : Cleveland has ensured that not all the teams have winning records, but with three teams in the top half of the league, it's still a strong division. Likely to provide both wildcards
3. AFC East [3] : Huge win by Buffalo helped the division
4. NFC North [4] : Detroit was the only winner, and it was unimpressive. Gap between them and #5 is shrinking
5. AFC West [5] : Denver and KC won big, but both played divisional opponents, so their opponents fell
6. NFC East [6] : Beat up on each other
7. AFC South [7] : Jacksonville and Tennessee hung in there, but ultimately only Indy was a winner
8. NFC South [8] : Their highest ranked team is #19. Nuff said
Sunday, December 14, 2014
NCAA 2014 Bowl picks part I
Snow is on the ground, malls are filled with Christmas shoppers, so it's that time of year again. Time for my annual look at the NCAA bowl games. Two new bowls were added this year, making the task even more daunting. I will again split my picks into two columns. This one will examine the games prior to New Years Eve.
Sat Dec 20
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): This Mountain West v Sun Belt match-up is often won by the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns were a pretty good team this year, and they're going to have plenty of fans in their corner, as they don't have far to travel to attend this game. Both teams are fairly even matched. They both prefer to run versus pass, and both allowed about 28 points per game this season. The difference is their non-conference performance. Nevada, with a tougher schedule, went 3-1, while the Cajuns went 1-3. Not even a bunch of friendly fans can overcome that. NEVADA by six
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State Aggies (9-4) v UTEP Miners (7-5): The Aggies spent part of the season flirting with the Top 25. They did that in strange style for the Mountain West -- on defense. The Aggies were stingy, holding most opponents to 20 points or less. They even held high-powered Colorado State to 16 points. An opening loss to Tennessee was erased by great play later in the season. Two of their losses were to ranked teams: Colorado State and Boise State. I like the Aggies in this one. UTAH STATE by 13
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (8-4) v #21 Colorado State Rams (10-2): The state of Utah will be focused on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, as both of their state schools battle in bowls. Utah had a decent season against Pac-12 opponents, and went unbeaten with a fairly easy non-conference schedule. The Rams were ignored by most national analysts, who seem to ignore any Mountain West team except Boise State. That may be the undoing of the favored Utes. The Rams are a strong team, especially through the air. They have one of the Top Ten passing attacks in the country. That may prove too much for the overtaxed Utah secondary. The best comparison between these two? How they played against common opponent Colorado. Utah won by only four, while the Rams won by fourteen. COLORADO STATE by 16
Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (9-3): A busy day for the Mountain West concludes with this fourth bowl game, as the Falcons face off against Western Michigan. Again, much of the nation ignores the MAC conference, but Air Force should not dismiss Western Michigan. After early struggles against Purdue and Virginia Tech, the Broncos buckled down and had a tremendous run until getting beaten in their final game against eventual MAC Champion Northern Illinois. They only lost by ten points, which is quite an accomplishment (just ask Bowling Green about that!). That momentum will be valuable rolling into this bowl game. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Camellia Bowl: South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) : The MAC runner-up gets no love after being thrashed by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championships, as they are relegated to this new bowl, created mostly to give the Sun Belt a third bowl game. Nice idea, but the Jaguars are horribly overmatched. BOWLING GREEN by 20
Mon Dec 22
BYU Cougars (8-4) v #19 Memphis Tigers (9-3): Who has the best defense outside of the Power Five conferences? Memphis, who has the Number Five defense in the country. Why that didn't give them national attention I do not know, but I credited their performance with a Top 25 ranking. They'll get a bowl victory, too. MEMPHIS by 16
Tues Dec 23
Boca Raton Bowl: #14 Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2): The key factor to determining a victor here is whether Marshall has gotten over their shocking overtime loss to Western Kentucky, when the Hilltoppers successfully went for a two-point conversion, that cost them their unbeaten season. They hadn't for the Conference USA Championship, barely eking out a three-point victory. Northern Illinois was not overpowering opponents, but they won steadily (with the exception of the Central Michigan upset) after their blow-out loss to Arkansas. The Huskies capped their season with a dominant win in the MAC Championship. That shows how strong the Huskies can be, and what they can do if Marshall's head isn't in the game. I'll pick the Herd, but watch out for the Huskies if Marshall isn't mentally aware. MARSHALL by four
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy Midshipmen (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): Even records, but not evenly matched. Navy concluded their season with a tough struggle against Army. Yes, the Black Knights were improved this season, but it was still a poor performance. San Diego State had some impressive games this season, and should dominate this game. SAN DIEGO STATE by 16
Wed Dec 24
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5) v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5): The Bahamas add their tropical paradise to Hawaii in the "fantasy locations" bowl duo on Christmas Eve. It pits the strong defense of the Chippewas against the powerful offense of the Hilltoppers. I usually pick the defense in such battles, but the Hilltoppers have played well in close games, which I suspect this one will be. WESTERN KENTUCKY by four
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7) v Rice Owls (7-5): Okay, I accept that any team who played in a conference championship should be given a bowl game, but to reward a team with a losing season with a trip to Hawaii? I can't see it. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, and will play tough in the first half, but I think Rice will come back to spoil the Bulldogs attempt at a non-losing season. RICE by five
Fri Dec 26
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5): Once again the bowl committee pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records. They conspire to make the Big Ten's bowl record poor. However, it may backfire in this case. Yes, Tech made it to the Conference USA Championship Game, where they lost to nearly-unbeaten Marshall by only three points, but Tech's non-conference schedule was a joke, and they still went 1-4, including losses to FCS Northwestern State (who didn't even make the FCS playoffs) and former FCS Old Dominion. Both teams have strong passing games, but Illinois' rushing game didn't appear until the end of the season. If that was a signal of things to come, they might pull out the victory. I'll pick Tech, but I'm rooting for my Illini. LOUISIANA TECH by six
Detroit Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): I think the bowl selection committee forgot that Rutgers joined the Big Ten conference this year, and paired them against a weaker team. Fine, we'll take the victory. RUTGERS by 13
St Petersburg Bowl: NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v UCF Golden Knights (9-3): It won't be a pleasant day for North Carolinians, as both of their state schools are doomed to fall to Knights. The Golden Knights have a stiff defense, and they will stymie the Wolfpack. Worse, NC State suffered from turnover problems during much of the season, and UCF is very opportunistic when it comes to forcing turnovers, and gaining points from them. UCF by 21
Sat Dec 27
Military Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6): As Ohio State can attest, never discount the Hokies. However, this was not one of their better seasons (despite the early victory over the Buckeyes). Despite the likelihood of a sea of Hokie fans (since they aren't that far from Annapolis), the Hokies will be taxed by a strong Bearcat offense. CINCINNATI by 16
Sun Bowl: #20 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (9-3): Can it the be-Deviled bowl. Duke actually has a better point differential, but that was against weaker opponents. The Sun Devils were a terror in the highly-competitive Pac-12 this season, churning out five consecutive victories after a horrible loss to UCLA back in September. ARIZONA STATE by 14
Independence Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (6-6) v South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6): Geez, I'm not even sure I care who wins this one. Neither team lived up to their expectations this season. Miami was ranked preseason, and they were supposed to contend with Florida State. An opening loss to Louisville foreshadowed a dismal season that concluded with three consecutive losses. Miami's only highlight? A dominating win over Duke. The Gamecocks took a massive step backwards defensively this season, and found they were battling for every victory. Their only dominant victories were against Furman and South Alabama. That leans me towards Miami, but I'm not sure either team will inspire me to watch the game. Certainly their sponsor keeps me away, as the bearded hicks of TV's Duck Dynasty have decided to take over sponsorship of this once-prestigious bowl game. MIAMI by six
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6): Call this one the battle of defenses. Both teams have better defenses than offenses. I think Penn State has the slightly better defense, which might be enough to win the game. PENN STATE by four
Holiday Bowl: #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #23 USC Trojans (8-4): Holiday Bowls tend to be high-scoring affairs, and this one has the potential to be so. Nebraska needs to reverse the downward spiral they experienced to close the regular season. They will be counting on Ameer Abdullah to find holes in the Trojans defensive line, and QB Tommy Armstrong to thread the ball through USC's secondary. On the other side, the Trojans are counting on QB Cody Kessler and WR Nelson Agholor to be in sync and generate some long plays. Since the game is in California, the crowd will be behind the Trojans, and the Cornhuskers have a new coach. But that new coach is actually an advantage, as Mike Riley moves from Oregon State to Nebraska. Riley has seen the Trojans in action, and knows how to deal with them (despite losing to them 31-10 earlier this season). NEBRASKA by six
Mon Dec 29
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) v West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5): The Aggies have a great passing game, but no running game nor defense. The Mountaineers have a working running game, and perhaps an even better passing attack than that of the Aggies. That adds up to a Mountaineers victory to me. WEST VIRGINIA by nine
Russell Athletic Bowl: #16 Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) v Clemson Tigers (9-3): Clemson is favored, but Oklahoma played well in a fierce Big XII conference this season. Aside from the last week overtime loss to rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners lost only to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State. They have one of the best running attacks in the game, which can wear out the Clemson defense. It might be close early, but the Sooners will pull away in the fourth. OKLAHOMA by 11
Texas Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) v Texas Longhorns (6-6): Arkansas had one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing nine ranked teams. They shut out two of those, lost to Number One Alabama by one point (and held the Tide to their lowest offensive output of the season), lost to then-Number One Mississippi State by only seven, and fell to Aggies in overtime. They'd be a lock to win this game, right? Except Texas has been nearly unbeaten in the state of Texas, losing only to Baylor and TCU in their home state. The Longhorns also had three very impressive wins at the end of the season, prior to the TCU loss. The bowl selection committee looked very favorably upon Texas, and that might be the tide turner. TEXAS by six
Tues Dec 30
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v LSU Tigers (8-4): Two teams who definitely had visions of a better 2014, LSU was undone by a pathetic passing attack. They are bolstered, however, by one of the stiffest defenses in the country. The Irish have crumbled under tough defenses, and they face their toughest one all season here. LSU by 13
Belk Bowl: #9 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) v Louisville Cardinals (9-3): The records may be even, but the level of their competition was far from it. This might be the most one-sided bowl of them all. GEORGIA by 30
Santa Clara Bowl: Maryland Terrapins (7-5) v Stanford Cardinal (7-5): Nearly a home game for Stanford, they face a Maryland team who actually had a decent season in our inaugural Big Ten run. A poor defense will be Maryland's undoing, however. STANFORD by 12
Sat Dec 20
New Orleans Bowl: Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4): This Mountain West v Sun Belt match-up is often won by the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns were a pretty good team this year, and they're going to have plenty of fans in their corner, as they don't have far to travel to attend this game. Both teams are fairly even matched. They both prefer to run versus pass, and both allowed about 28 points per game this season. The difference is their non-conference performance. Nevada, with a tougher schedule, went 3-1, while the Cajuns went 1-3. Not even a bunch of friendly fans can overcome that. NEVADA by six
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State Aggies (9-4) v UTEP Miners (7-5): The Aggies spent part of the season flirting with the Top 25. They did that in strange style for the Mountain West -- on defense. The Aggies were stingy, holding most opponents to 20 points or less. They even held high-powered Colorado State to 16 points. An opening loss to Tennessee was erased by great play later in the season. Two of their losses were to ranked teams: Colorado State and Boise State. I like the Aggies in this one. UTAH STATE by 13
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (8-4) v #21 Colorado State Rams (10-2): The state of Utah will be focused on ESPN and ABC Saturday afternoon, as both of their state schools battle in bowls. Utah had a decent season against Pac-12 opponents, and went unbeaten with a fairly easy non-conference schedule. The Rams were ignored by most national analysts, who seem to ignore any Mountain West team except Boise State. That may be the undoing of the favored Utes. The Rams are a strong team, especially through the air. They have one of the Top Ten passing attacks in the country. That may prove too much for the overtaxed Utah secondary. The best comparison between these two? How they played against common opponent Colorado. Utah won by only four, while the Rams won by fourteen. COLORADO STATE by 16
Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4) v Air Force Falcons (9-3): A busy day for the Mountain West concludes with this fourth bowl game, as the Falcons face off against Western Michigan. Again, much of the nation ignores the MAC conference, but Air Force should not dismiss Western Michigan. After early struggles against Purdue and Virginia Tech, the Broncos buckled down and had a tremendous run until getting beaten in their final game against eventual MAC Champion Northern Illinois. They only lost by ten points, which is quite an accomplishment (just ask Bowling Green about that!). That momentum will be valuable rolling into this bowl game. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Camellia Bowl: South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) v Bowling Green Falcons (7-6) : The MAC runner-up gets no love after being thrashed by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championships, as they are relegated to this new bowl, created mostly to give the Sun Belt a third bowl game. Nice idea, but the Jaguars are horribly overmatched. BOWLING GREEN by 20
Mon Dec 22
BYU Cougars (8-4) v #19 Memphis Tigers (9-3): Who has the best defense outside of the Power Five conferences? Memphis, who has the Number Five defense in the country. Why that didn't give them national attention I do not know, but I credited their performance with a Top 25 ranking. They'll get a bowl victory, too. MEMPHIS by 16
Tues Dec 23
Boca Raton Bowl: #14 Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) v #24 Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2): The key factor to determining a victor here is whether Marshall has gotten over their shocking overtime loss to Western Kentucky, when the Hilltoppers successfully went for a two-point conversion, that cost them their unbeaten season. They hadn't for the Conference USA Championship, barely eking out a three-point victory. Northern Illinois was not overpowering opponents, but they won steadily (with the exception of the Central Michigan upset) after their blow-out loss to Arkansas. The Huskies capped their season with a dominant win in the MAC Championship. That shows how strong the Huskies can be, and what they can do if Marshall's head isn't in the game. I'll pick the Herd, but watch out for the Huskies if Marshall isn't mentally aware. MARSHALL by four
Poinsettia Bowl: Navy Midshipmen (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (7-5): Even records, but not evenly matched. Navy concluded their season with a tough struggle against Army. Yes, the Black Knights were improved this season, but it was still a poor performance. San Diego State had some impressive games this season, and should dominate this game. SAN DIEGO STATE by 16
Wed Dec 24
Bahamas Bowl: Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5) v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5): The Bahamas add their tropical paradise to Hawaii in the "fantasy locations" bowl duo on Christmas Eve. It pits the strong defense of the Chippewas against the powerful offense of the Hilltoppers. I usually pick the defense in such battles, but the Hilltoppers have played well in close games, which I suspect this one will be. WESTERN KENTUCKY by four
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-7) v Rice Owls (7-5): Okay, I accept that any team who played in a conference championship should be given a bowl game, but to reward a team with a losing season with a trip to Hawaii? I can't see it. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, and will play tough in the first half, but I think Rice will come back to spoil the Bulldogs attempt at a non-losing season. RICE by five
Fri Dec 26
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) v Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5): Once again the bowl committee pairs Big Ten teams against teams with better records. They conspire to make the Big Ten's bowl record poor. However, it may backfire in this case. Yes, Tech made it to the Conference USA Championship Game, where they lost to nearly-unbeaten Marshall by only three points, but Tech's non-conference schedule was a joke, and they still went 1-4, including losses to FCS Northwestern State (who didn't even make the FCS playoffs) and former FCS Old Dominion. Both teams have strong passing games, but Illinois' rushing game didn't appear until the end of the season. If that was a signal of things to come, they might pull out the victory. I'll pick Tech, but I'm rooting for my Illini. LOUISIANA TECH by six
Detroit Bowl: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) v North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6): I think the bowl selection committee forgot that Rutgers joined the Big Ten conference this year, and paired them against a weaker team. Fine, we'll take the victory. RUTGERS by 13
St Petersburg Bowl: NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v UCF Golden Knights (9-3): It won't be a pleasant day for North Carolinians, as both of their state schools are doomed to fall to Knights. The Golden Knights have a stiff defense, and they will stymie the Wolfpack. Worse, NC State suffered from turnover problems during much of the season, and UCF is very opportunistic when it comes to forcing turnovers, and gaining points from them. UCF by 21
Sat Dec 27
Military Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6): As Ohio State can attest, never discount the Hokies. However, this was not one of their better seasons (despite the early victory over the Buckeyes). Despite the likelihood of a sea of Hokie fans (since they aren't that far from Annapolis), the Hokies will be taxed by a strong Bearcat offense. CINCINNATI by 16
Sun Bowl: #20 Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (9-3): Can it the be-Deviled bowl. Duke actually has a better point differential, but that was against weaker opponents. The Sun Devils were a terror in the highly-competitive Pac-12 this season, churning out five consecutive victories after a horrible loss to UCLA back in September. ARIZONA STATE by 14
Independence Bowl: Miami Hurricanes (6-6) v South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6): Geez, I'm not even sure I care who wins this one. Neither team lived up to their expectations this season. Miami was ranked preseason, and they were supposed to contend with Florida State. An opening loss to Louisville foreshadowed a dismal season that concluded with three consecutive losses. Miami's only highlight? A dominating win over Duke. The Gamecocks took a massive step backwards defensively this season, and found they were battling for every victory. Their only dominant victories were against Furman and South Alabama. That leans me towards Miami, but I'm not sure either team will inspire me to watch the game. Certainly their sponsor keeps me away, as the bearded hicks of TV's Duck Dynasty have decided to take over sponsorship of this once-prestigious bowl game. MIAMI by six
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College Eagles (7-5) v Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6): Call this one the battle of defenses. Both teams have better defenses than offenses. I think Penn State has the slightly better defense, which might be enough to win the game. PENN STATE by four
Holiday Bowl: #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) v #23 USC Trojans (8-4): Holiday Bowls tend to be high-scoring affairs, and this one has the potential to be so. Nebraska needs to reverse the downward spiral they experienced to close the regular season. They will be counting on Ameer Abdullah to find holes in the Trojans defensive line, and QB Tommy Armstrong to thread the ball through USC's secondary. On the other side, the Trojans are counting on QB Cody Kessler and WR Nelson Agholor to be in sync and generate some long plays. Since the game is in California, the crowd will be behind the Trojans, and the Cornhuskers have a new coach. But that new coach is actually an advantage, as Mike Riley moves from Oregon State to Nebraska. Riley has seen the Trojans in action, and knows how to deal with them (despite losing to them 31-10 earlier this season). NEBRASKA by six
Mon Dec 29
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) v West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5): The Aggies have a great passing game, but no running game nor defense. The Mountaineers have a working running game, and perhaps an even better passing attack than that of the Aggies. That adds up to a Mountaineers victory to me. WEST VIRGINIA by nine
Russell Athletic Bowl: #16 Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) v Clemson Tigers (9-3): Clemson is favored, but Oklahoma played well in a fierce Big XII conference this season. Aside from the last week overtime loss to rival Oklahoma State, the Sooners lost only to TCU, Baylor, and Kansas State. They have one of the best running attacks in the game, which can wear out the Clemson defense. It might be close early, but the Sooners will pull away in the fourth. OKLAHOMA by 11
Texas Bowl: Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) v Texas Longhorns (6-6): Arkansas had one of the toughest schedules in the country, playing nine ranked teams. They shut out two of those, lost to Number One Alabama by one point (and held the Tide to their lowest offensive output of the season), lost to then-Number One Mississippi State by only seven, and fell to Aggies in overtime. They'd be a lock to win this game, right? Except Texas has been nearly unbeaten in the state of Texas, losing only to Baylor and TCU in their home state. The Longhorns also had three very impressive wins at the end of the season, prior to the TCU loss. The bowl selection committee looked very favorably upon Texas, and that might be the tide turner. TEXAS by six
Tues Dec 30
Music City Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) v LSU Tigers (8-4): Two teams who definitely had visions of a better 2014, LSU was undone by a pathetic passing attack. They are bolstered, however, by one of the stiffest defenses in the country. The Irish have crumbled under tough defenses, and they face their toughest one all season here. LSU by 13
Belk Bowl: #9 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) v Louisville Cardinals (9-3): The records may be even, but the level of their competition was far from it. This might be the most one-sided bowl of them all. GEORGIA by 30
Santa Clara Bowl: Maryland Terrapins (7-5) v Stanford Cardinal (7-5): Nearly a home game for Stanford, they face a Maryland team who actually had a decent season in our inaugural Big Ten run. A poor defense will be Maryland's undoing, however. STANFORD by 12
Thursday, December 11, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 15 picks
We're getting into the final weeks, so let's look at divisional races and playoff contenders.
AFC EAST: New England leads in the division with the greatest separation. The Pats win the division with a win or losses by Miami and Buffalo.
AFC NORTH: Tightest division race in the AFC, as every team still has a shot. Bengals lead by half a game, but they haven't been impressive recently. With games against Pittsburgh and Denver remaining, nine games looks to be their limit. Ravens have the easiest schedule remaining.
AFC SOUTH: Colts play Texans this week. A Colts win seals the title for them.
AFC WEST: Denver wins the title with a victory over San Diego this week.
AFC wildcards: With the lost conference record of all contenders with 8-5 or 7-6 records, the Ravens need to win their division. Pittsburgh has the best position for a wildcard berth, followed by Houston. Miami, Buffalo, San Diego, KC, Houston, and Cleveland are still in the race.
NFC EAST: Philly and Dallas are neck-and-neck, although Philly holds the tiebreaker. They face each other this week for the lead.
NFC NORTH: Green Bay leads, but Detroit is still nipping at their heels. Minnesota has no chance now.
NFC SOUTH: Even Tampa Bay is mathematically in it, although not practically. Atlanta holds tiebreaker status, but New Orleans has the easier schedule and a rematch against the Falcons.
NFC WEST: Arizona's lead is in jeopardy to Seattle. The 49ers are still mathematically in, but a loss to Seattle this week would eliminate that. The Rams don't have a chance at the title.
NFC Wildcards: Seattle and Detroit are best poised to capture playoff berths. The NFC East runner-up is also a strong contender. Rams, 49ers, and Vikings are the only other wildcard contenders.
Thursday night: Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: This game could determine Arizona's playoff fate. The Rams defense has the best two-game streak of any team in the league, and the Cards offense has been sputtering. This will be a defensive battle. The Cards defense can score points, while the Rams are best at producing stops. As such, I'll give a slight edge to Arizona, but watch out for the Rams. CARDINALS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns start Manziel, which may not be a smart idea against a division rival. That's the main reason I'm picking Cincy, although neither is likely to have a great game. BENGALS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: Green Bay will knock the Bills out of division title contention. Kyle Orton used to have decent stats against Green Bay when he was Chicago's QB, so expect that again. PACK, 34-23
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts could clinch the division at home. Nothing more really needs to be said. COLTS, 30-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Jags make most opponents look good; not that Baltimore needs it. RAVENS, 30-16
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Like the Colts, the Patriots have a chance to clinch their division at home. That's incentive enough, ignoring the fact that they play a tough division rival. PATS, 30-20
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Lots of divisional contests this week, and KC appreciates the opportunity to improve their wildcard resume. Despite two victories in recent weeks, the Raiders still have a ways to go to be a force in the league. CHIEFS, 23-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: Pittsburgh's offense has been potent recently. I don't think the Falcons can keep up, unless their defense comes up with something to stop Le'Veon Bell. The Flacons may get a late score to make the game look closer than it was, but the Steelers should rule. STEELERS, 27-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: How bad are the Bucs? Cam Newton is not playing after being involved in a car accident, and I still pick them to win. PANTHERS, 20-17
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: With all of the internal strife in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure they'll win another game, especially since they see nothing but divisional opponents. GIANTS, 26-13
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: As stated above, a Broncos victory clinches the division. The Chargers have been too inconsistent recently for me to believe they can win, although the sometimes spotty Broncos defense could five Philip Rivers and company an opening. BRONCOS, 27-24
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Finally! An opponent the Jets can beat. JETS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Teddy Bridgewater has been doing fairly well, but the Lions defense will make this game tough. LIONS, 21-17
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: With Seattle's revitalized defense and Colin Kaepernick's struggles, this game should be easy for Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were embarrassed by Seattle, so they are itching for a good game. Dallas has been avoiding their December slump, although they were stomped on Thanksgiving Day by these same Eagles. The Cowboys have a couple of extra days to prepare, but until their defense shows more effectiveness at slowing the Eagles fast-paced offense, I have to favor the Eagles. EAGLES, 27-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: The Bears typically do poorly on Monday night, and their defense is in shambles. Drew Brees should have a good game. However, the Saints defense hasn't been great recently, either, and Chicago is itching for a good game. Expect aerial antics from Jay Cutler as well. This game will have several lead changes, but I like the idea of Cutler producing a late drive when the Saints defense tires. BEARS, 30-27
AFC EAST: New England leads in the division with the greatest separation. The Pats win the division with a win or losses by Miami and Buffalo.
AFC NORTH: Tightest division race in the AFC, as every team still has a shot. Bengals lead by half a game, but they haven't been impressive recently. With games against Pittsburgh and Denver remaining, nine games looks to be their limit. Ravens have the easiest schedule remaining.
AFC SOUTH: Colts play Texans this week. A Colts win seals the title for them.
AFC WEST: Denver wins the title with a victory over San Diego this week.
AFC wildcards: With the lost conference record of all contenders with 8-5 or 7-6 records, the Ravens need to win their division. Pittsburgh has the best position for a wildcard berth, followed by Houston. Miami, Buffalo, San Diego, KC, Houston, and Cleveland are still in the race.
NFC EAST: Philly and Dallas are neck-and-neck, although Philly holds the tiebreaker. They face each other this week for the lead.
NFC NORTH: Green Bay leads, but Detroit is still nipping at their heels. Minnesota has no chance now.
NFC SOUTH: Even Tampa Bay is mathematically in it, although not practically. Atlanta holds tiebreaker status, but New Orleans has the easier schedule and a rematch against the Falcons.
NFC WEST: Arizona's lead is in jeopardy to Seattle. The 49ers are still mathematically in, but a loss to Seattle this week would eliminate that. The Rams don't have a chance at the title.
NFC Wildcards: Seattle and Detroit are best poised to capture playoff berths. The NFC East runner-up is also a strong contender. Rams, 49ers, and Vikings are the only other wildcard contenders.
Thursday night: Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: This game could determine Arizona's playoff fate. The Rams defense has the best two-game streak of any team in the league, and the Cards offense has been sputtering. This will be a defensive battle. The Cards defense can score points, while the Rams are best at producing stops. As such, I'll give a slight edge to Arizona, but watch out for the Rams. CARDINALS, 20-17
Sunday early games
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: The Browns start Manziel, which may not be a smart idea against a division rival. That's the main reason I'm picking Cincy, although neither is likely to have a great game. BENGALS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: Green Bay will knock the Bills out of division title contention. Kyle Orton used to have decent stats against Green Bay when he was Chicago's QB, so expect that again. PACK, 34-23
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts could clinch the division at home. Nothing more really needs to be said. COLTS, 30-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: The Jags make most opponents look good; not that Baltimore needs it. RAVENS, 30-16
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Like the Colts, the Patriots have a chance to clinch their division at home. That's incentive enough, ignoring the fact that they play a tough division rival. PATS, 30-20
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Lots of divisional contests this week, and KC appreciates the opportunity to improve their wildcard resume. Despite two victories in recent weeks, the Raiders still have a ways to go to be a force in the league. CHIEFS, 23-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons: Pittsburgh's offense has been potent recently. I don't think the Falcons can keep up, unless their defense comes up with something to stop Le'Veon Bell. The Flacons may get a late score to make the game look closer than it was, but the Steelers should rule. STEELERS, 27-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: How bad are the Bucs? Cam Newton is not playing after being involved in a car accident, and I still pick them to win. PANTHERS, 20-17
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: With all of the internal strife in the Redskins organization, I'm not sure they'll win another game, especially since they see nothing but divisional opponents. GIANTS, 26-13
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: As stated above, a Broncos victory clinches the division. The Chargers have been too inconsistent recently for me to believe they can win, although the sometimes spotty Broncos defense could five Philip Rivers and company an opening. BRONCOS, 27-24
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Finally! An opponent the Jets can beat. JETS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Teddy Bridgewater has been doing fairly well, but the Lions defense will make this game tough. LIONS, 21-17
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: With Seattle's revitalized defense and Colin Kaepernick's struggles, this game should be easy for Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles were embarrassed by Seattle, so they are itching for a good game. Dallas has been avoiding their December slump, although they were stomped on Thanksgiving Day by these same Eagles. The Cowboys have a couple of extra days to prepare, but until their defense shows more effectiveness at slowing the Eagles fast-paced offense, I have to favor the Eagles. EAGLES, 27-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: The Bears typically do poorly on Monday night, and their defense is in shambles. Drew Brees should have a good game. However, the Saints defense hasn't been great recently, either, and Chicago is itching for a good game. Expect aerial antics from Jay Cutler as well. This game will have several lead changes, but I like the idea of Cutler producing a late drive when the Saints defense tires. BEARS, 30-27
NFL 2014 Week 14 Power Rankings
No takeaways this week, as I was away for the weekend and watched only one game -- Seattle's win over Philly.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) [1] : Without a doubt the strongest and most dominant team in the league
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3) [2] : The best offense in the league. Aaron Rodgers is starting to have fans say, "Brett Who?"
3. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : Looks like they'll be the second seed in the AFC
4. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [5] : Second best offense, but defense could use a little work
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [7] : Speaking of defense, we have one of the best here
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) [6] : This defense has toughened, making Seattle a viable contender again
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [3] : Their offense got crushed by Seattle's revitalized defense
8. Arizona Cardinals (10-3) [8] : They aborted their losing streak, but they weren't impressive doing it
9. Dallas Cowboys (9-4) [12] : This could be the year they break the December curse
10. Detroit Lions (9-4) [13]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : The resurgence of Seattle and Arizona's return to winning ways helped boost this division. The Rams shutout helped, too.
2. AFC North [3] : Close on their heels, this division continues to have no team with a losing record, although Cleveland is starting to get there
3. AFC East [1] : Only New England won this week
4. NFC North [4] : Once again this week, everyone won except the Bears
5. AFC West [4] : Oakland won, but losses by San Diego and KC hurt them
6. NFC East [6] : Philly's fall to Seattle hurt, as did Washington's shutout
7. AFC South [7] : Houston impressed, but it was against Jacksonville
8. NFC South [8] : They're going to take a playoff spot away from a deserving team
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3) [1] : Without a doubt the strongest and most dominant team in the league
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3) [2] : The best offense in the league. Aaron Rodgers is starting to have fans say, "Brett Who?"
3. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : Looks like they'll be the second seed in the AFC
4. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [5] : Second best offense, but defense could use a little work
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) [7] : Speaking of defense, we have one of the best here
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4) [6] : This defense has toughened, making Seattle a viable contender again
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [3] : Their offense got crushed by Seattle's revitalized defense
8. Arizona Cardinals (10-3) [8] : They aborted their losing streak, but they weren't impressive doing it
9. Dallas Cowboys (9-4) [12] : This could be the year they break the December curse
10. Detroit Lions (9-4) [13]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC West [2] : The resurgence of Seattle and Arizona's return to winning ways helped boost this division. The Rams shutout helped, too.
2. AFC North [3] : Close on their heels, this division continues to have no team with a losing record, although Cleveland is starting to get there
3. AFC East [1] : Only New England won this week
4. NFC North [4] : Once again this week, everyone won except the Bears
5. AFC West [4] : Oakland won, but losses by San Diego and KC hurt them
6. NFC East [6] : Philly's fall to Seattle hurt, as did Washington's shutout
7. AFC South [7] : Houston impressed, but it was against Jacksonville
8. NFC South [8] : They're going to take a playoff spot away from a deserving team
Monday, December 8, 2014
NCAA 2014 Final regular season Top 25
Most of the games turned out as I expected, although I didn't figure Oklahoma State would beat Oklahoma. I don't anyone expected the Buckeyes defense to shut down the highly-effective running game of Wisconsin, shutting them out 59-0. With all of the talk about how Ohio State was done for when JT Barrett went down to injury, the Buekeyes instead earned a playoff spot despite victories by both Baylor and TCU.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-1) [1] : Clear SEC winner has top playoff seed
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [3] : Crushed Wisconsin to capture the Big Ten crown and a playoff spot
3. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [2] : Nearly lost again, although this time they didn't have to come from behind -- it's Georgia Tech who excelled in the fourth quarter
4. TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) [4]
5. Oregon Ducks (12-1) [5]
6. Baylor Bears (11-1) [6]
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [7]
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [9]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [12]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) [10]
11. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [13]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) [8]
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
14. Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) [18]
15. Boise State Broncos (11-2) [19]
16. Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) [14]
17. Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) [15]
18. Arizona Wildcats (10-3) [11]
19. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [20]
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) [21]
21. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [23]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [22]
23. USC Trojans (8-4) [24]
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2) [29]
25. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [17]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Louisville Cardinals (9-3), UCF Golden Knights (9-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4), LSU Tigers (8-4), UCLA Bruins (9-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (12-1) [1] : Clear SEC winner has top playoff seed
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) [3] : Crushed Wisconsin to capture the Big Ten crown and a playoff spot
3. Florida State Seminoles (13-0) [2] : Nearly lost again, although this time they didn't have to come from behind -- it's Georgia Tech who excelled in the fourth quarter
4. TCU Horned Frogs (11-1) [4]
5. Oregon Ducks (12-1) [5]
6. Baylor Bears (11-1) [6]
7. Michigan State Spartans (10-2) [7]
8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) [9]
9. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) [12]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3) [10]
11. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) [13]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (10-3) [8]
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) [16]
14. Marshall Thundering Herd (12-1) [18]
15. Boise State Broncos (11-2) [19]
16. Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) [14]
17. Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) [15]
18. Arizona Wildcats (10-3) [11]
19. Memphis Tigers (9-3) [20]
20. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3) [21]
21. Colorado State Rams (10-2) [23]
22. Auburn Tigers (8-4) [22]
23. USC Trojans (8-4) [24]
24. Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2) [29]
25. Missouri Tigers (10-3) [17]
Dropped off: Duke Blue Devils [#25]
On the Edge: Western Michigan Broncos (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), Louisville Cardinals (9-3), UCF Golden Knights (9-3), Utah State Aggies (9-4), LSU Tigers (8-4), UCLA Bruins (9-3), Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4)
Thursday, December 4, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 13 Power Rankings and Week 14 picks
No news or takeaways this week; it's a busy time of year for me as a college professor.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3) [1] : Despite losing to Green Bay, they still have the best body of work this season
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3) [2] : Their defeat of the Patriots seals them as the strongest NFC team
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) [6] : Huge win over Dallas makes Philly a threat
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [4] : Still a strong team, but consistency is a bit of a problem
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [7] : Offense had a field day against Washington
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) [9] : Moving back up
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) [5] : Another close loss
8. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) [3] : Two losses in a row with Stanton under center. Even I'm beginning to worry
9. Miami Dolphins (7-5) [11] : Close call against the lowly Jets
10. Buffalo Bills (7-5) [13] : Quality win against Cleveland brings the Bills into the Top Ten
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC East [3] : Despite New England's loss, Buffalo's impressive win propels them to first place, although the gap is small
2. NFC West [2] : Seattle is looking better, but the Cards are falling
3. AFC North [1] : The division did not look good this week.
4 (tie). AFC West [4] : Denver and San Diego did well, but Oakland embarrassed
4 (tie). NFC North [6] : Impressive wins by everyone except Chicago
6. NFC East [5] : Whither Dallas, and the Giants got skunked by Jacksonville
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Jacksonville won, but Indy remains the best team in this division
8. NFC South [8] : The two leaders won, but this division remains rancid
Thursday night: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: The Bears tend to play well on Thursday night, and the Cowboys have collapsed in December in recent years. I really should go for the upset here, but I'll pick the favored Cowboys, albeit not by much. COWBOYS, 27-24
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: This was actually a tough game to pick. The Ravens have a better margin of victory, but both teams have a stiff defense supported by a talented offense. This will likely be a close game, and I often favor the home team or the team with the stiffer defense. In this case, those are not the same team. I'll pick Baltimore's defense here, but Miami could pull this one out. RAVENS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans' offense should overwhelm the struggling Carolina defense, giving them a temporary half-game lead in the NFC South. SAINTS, 30-23
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their second game of the season last week, but they won't win two in a row. TEXANS, 27-13
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: The worst thing Cleveland could have done was pick Johnny Manziel to start. Yes, he scored a touchdown on his first possession last week, mainly because the Bills defense wasn't ready for him. Notice how well they adjusted for his next drive. The Colts defense will be expecting him. He'll pull out some surprises, but he'll also throw at least one interception -- it's what he does. COLTS, 31-20
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: The Giants have something to prove after allowing Jacksonville the opportunity to take the lead TWICE late in the fourth quarter last week. They'll play tougher this week, and get past the sputtering Titans. GIANTS, 27-23
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: The Jets' struggles are well-known. More than one national analyst is starting to consider them the worst team in the league. They're not there yet (so long as Oakland continues to flounder), but they definitely contend for the dubious honor. VIKINGS, 24-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both of these teams suffer from inconsistency. You're never sure which team will show up: the talented one, or the mistake-prone one. Since the Bengals are at home, I think the talented group will appear just long enough to win this game. BENGALS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are suffering internally, as RGIII no longer trusts his coaches and they no longer trust him. They're putting Colt McCoy back under center, but that's not much better. The Rams are a good team, and will carve up the less-than-sterling McCoy. RAMS, 23-16
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: The Bucs are another team competing with Oakland for "worst team in the league" title. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Buffalo's defense will slow the Broncos, but they aren't good enough to slow them that much. BRONCOS, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. If that continues, KC is good enough to pull off the win. I think the Cards' defense will slow them enough, but the Chiefs will make this a closer game than it should be. CARDINALS, 24-23
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: The 49ers get a chance to catch up to Seattle as they play the bumbling Raiders. 49ERS, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: Seattle, on the other hand, has the daunting task of slowing one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Tough task. EAGLES, 30-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: The Patriots want to bounce back from their loss to the Packers. They should do it, but Philip Rivers and company will make it tough. PATS, 30-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: The Pack continue their NFC dominance over a struggling Falcons team, giving the Saints a one-game lead in the NFC South. PACK, 31-24
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3) [1] : Despite losing to Green Bay, they still have the best body of work this season
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3) [2] : Their defeat of the Patriots seals them as the strongest NFC team
3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) [6] : Huge win over Dallas makes Philly a threat
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [4] : Still a strong team, but consistency is a bit of a problem
5. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [7] : Offense had a field day against Washington
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) [9] : Moving back up
7. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) [5] : Another close loss
8. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) [3] : Two losses in a row with Stanton under center. Even I'm beginning to worry
9. Miami Dolphins (7-5) [11] : Close call against the lowly Jets
10. Buffalo Bills (7-5) [13] : Quality win against Cleveland brings the Bills into the Top Ten
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC East [3] : Despite New England's loss, Buffalo's impressive win propels them to first place, although the gap is small
2. NFC West [2] : Seattle is looking better, but the Cards are falling
3. AFC North [1] : The division did not look good this week.
4 (tie). AFC West [4] : Denver and San Diego did well, but Oakland embarrassed
4 (tie). NFC North [6] : Impressive wins by everyone except Chicago
6. NFC East [5] : Whither Dallas, and the Giants got skunked by Jacksonville
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Jacksonville won, but Indy remains the best team in this division
8. NFC South [8] : The two leaders won, but this division remains rancid
Thursday night: Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: The Bears tend to play well on Thursday night, and the Cowboys have collapsed in December in recent years. I really should go for the upset here, but I'll pick the favored Cowboys, albeit not by much. COWBOYS, 27-24
Sunday early games
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: This was actually a tough game to pick. The Ravens have a better margin of victory, but both teams have a stiff defense supported by a talented offense. This will likely be a close game, and I often favor the home team or the team with the stiffer defense. In this case, those are not the same team. I'll pick Baltimore's defense here, but Miami could pull this one out. RAVENS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: New Orleans' offense should overwhelm the struggling Carolina defense, giving them a temporary half-game lead in the NFC South. SAINTS, 30-23
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their second game of the season last week, but they won't win two in a row. TEXANS, 27-13
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: The worst thing Cleveland could have done was pick Johnny Manziel to start. Yes, he scored a touchdown on his first possession last week, mainly because the Bills defense wasn't ready for him. Notice how well they adjusted for his next drive. The Colts defense will be expecting him. He'll pull out some surprises, but he'll also throw at least one interception -- it's what he does. COLTS, 31-20
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: The Giants have something to prove after allowing Jacksonville the opportunity to take the lead TWICE late in the fourth quarter last week. They'll play tougher this week, and get past the sputtering Titans. GIANTS, 27-23
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: The Jets' struggles are well-known. More than one national analyst is starting to consider them the worst team in the league. They're not there yet (so long as Oakland continues to flounder), but they definitely contend for the dubious honor. VIKINGS, 24-16
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Both of these teams suffer from inconsistency. You're never sure which team will show up: the talented one, or the mistake-prone one. Since the Bengals are at home, I think the talented group will appear just long enough to win this game. BENGALS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are suffering internally, as RGIII no longer trusts his coaches and they no longer trust him. They're putting Colt McCoy back under center, but that's not much better. The Rams are a good team, and will carve up the less-than-sterling McCoy. RAMS, 23-16
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions: The Bucs are another team competing with Oakland for "worst team in the league" title. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday late games
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Buffalo's defense will slow the Broncos, but they aren't good enough to slow them that much. BRONCOS, 27-20
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. If that continues, KC is good enough to pull off the win. I think the Cards' defense will slow them enough, but the Chiefs will make this a closer game than it should be. CARDINALS, 24-23
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders: The 49ers get a chance to catch up to Seattle as they play the bumbling Raiders. 49ERS, 24-13
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: Seattle, on the other hand, has the daunting task of slowing one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Tough task. EAGLES, 30-24
Sunday night: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: The Patriots want to bounce back from their loss to the Packers. They should do it, but Philip Rivers and company will make it tough. PATS, 30-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: The Pack continue their NFC dominance over a struggling Falcons team, giving the Saints a one-game lead in the NFC South. PACK, 31-24
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