NCAA Football 2021 Week 9 results

 Several upsets and some shake-up in the Top 25.  With the first Playoff Rankings coming out this week, I start tracking unbeatens and my best bids for playoff contenders.  Since Georgia won the SEC East this week, I will start tracking divisional and conference races next week.

Top 25 [Last week's position]

1.  Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) [1]

2.  Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0) [3] : They still didn't have a really decisive win, but losses among the Top 5 boosted them up

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [4] : It was close against Penn State, but they buckled down in the fourth quarter and closed it out

4.  Michigan State Spartans (8-0) [6] : I would not have guessed that the last remaining unbeaten team in the Big Ten would be the Spartans

5.  Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [5]

6.  Oklahoma Sooners (9-0) [7]

7.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-0) [9] : They seem to be getting stronger.  It's the right time of the season for that.

8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) [8]

9.  Oregon Ducks (7-1) [10]

10. Michigan Wolverines (7-1) [2] : Too many mistakes cost them their unbeaten record, and may have cost them a shot at the playoffs

11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1) [25] : Huge jump, combining their own performance and poor performances of other Top 25 teams

12. Auburn Tigers (6-2) [21]

13. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-1) [15]

14. UTSA Roadrunners (8-0) [19]

15. Baylor Bears (7-1) [17]

16. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [16]

17. Houston Cougars (7-1) [20]

18. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3) [18] : The only three-loss team in the Top 25, they played Ohio State tough

19. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) [12] : No offense

20. SMU Mustangs (7-1) [14]

21. NC State Wolfpack (6-2) [26] : A strong win brings them back into the rankings

22. Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-2) [NR] : The frontrunners to win the Big Ten West jump into the rankings

23. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (7-1) [31]

24. Ole Miss Rebels (6-2) [13]

25. Kentucky Wildcats (6-2) [11]

On the Edge: Fresno State Bulldogs (7-2), Air Force Falcons (6-2), San Diego State Aztecs (7-1), Marshall Thundering Herd (5-3), Iowa State Cyclones (5-3), Pitt Panthers (6-2), BYU Cougars (7-2), Nevada Wolf Pack (6-2)

Dropped off: Arizona State Sun Devils [#22], Florida Gators [#23], San Diego State Aztecs [#24]

Big Ten Report

There were a few surprises this week.  I didn't think the Ohio State - Penn State game would be so close.  The comeback engineered by Michigan State surprised me.  And I certainly didn't expect Wisconsin to have so much offensive success against Iowa's tough defense.  The Badgers are definitely improving.  Nebraska also played Purdue very close, which surprised me a bit.

Minnesota leads the West division, and they look strong enough to win it.  Wisconsin is their only real competition, as Purdue still has games against Michigan State and Ohio State, so they will drop out of contention. Iowa's pathetic offense makes them a weak contender, as well.

Unbeatens and Playoff Contenders

We lost three unbeaten teams this week (Michigan, SMU, San Diego State), leaving us with just six.  Five are in the Top Ten, and UTSA moved up to #14.  The Roadrunners don't have a chance to be considered for the playoffs, but how do the others fare?  Georgia is likely in, unless they lose the SEC Championship (which doesn't seem likely).  If Michigan State wins out, and wins the Big Ten title, they are in.  If Ohio State beats them, they're out.  How about the others?

Cincinnati needs style points or some help from the Oklahoma State Cowboys.   See, unbeaten champions of both the ACC and Big XII will likely trump Cincinnati's bid.  However, if Oklahoma State beats their in-state rivals, either later this season or in the Big XII title game, that prevents the Big XII champ from going unbeaten.  Given the shape of the ACC this season, Wake seems unlikely to lose.  However, also given the overall weakness of the conference, is their performance good enough to jump over Cincinnati?  Only if they continue to improve.  The Demon Deacons have been more dominant in the past couple of weeks.  Ending the season like that would give them the boost needed to jump over Cincinnati.

So what is the most likely source of the four playoff teams?  The SEC champion is in, without a doubt.  Given the strength of the Big Ten this season, that champ is in (unless the champ somehow has two losses).  An unbeaten Big XII champ will get in, but can Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State TWICE in the same season?  Now, if the COWBOYS beat the Sooners twice, or the Cowboys win out (regardless of who they might face in the Big XII title game), then a one-loss Oklahoma State team seems likely.  Cincinnati is in if Oklahoma loses or if Wake Forest doesn't dominate anymore.  At this point of the season, based upon what I have seen, here is my best guess:  Georgia #1 seed, Ohio State #2 seed, Cincinnati #3 seed, Wake Forest #4 seed.  Yes, you saw that last position correctly.  I don't think the Big XII champ gets in, as I see both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (and Baylor, for that matter) losing, likely to each other.

What would be a true "monkey wrench" in this entire affair?  If Georgia loses the SEC Championship to a one-loss Alabama team.  Then both Georgia and Alabama will be in with Ohio State and ONE of Cincinnati and Wake Forest.

Upset Report

Although we didn't have too many upsets that affected Top 25 teams, we were rife with them this weekend.  Obviously we started with the Michigan State victory, followed quickly by Miami's overthrow of Pitt and Bowling Green beating Buffalo.  That MAC continues to confound me!

The Pac-12 suffered two upsets.  Washington State knocked off Arizona State, and knocked them right out of the rankings.  Then the Cal Golden Bears dominated Oregon State.  Conference USA also had two upsets, as Charlotte was smothered by Western Kentucky and floundering Florida Atlantic rose up against one-loss UTEP.

Perhaps the biggest upset, though, was located in the SEC.  Kentucky, a strong one-loss team, was facing unranked Mississippi State, whose record was only 3-4.  The Wildcats could never get it together, and the Bulldogs just blew them away.  As you see at the beginning of this column, that has put Kentucky's ranking in jeopardy.

NFL 2021 Week 8 picks

 Some interesting match-ups this week, including some possible upsets.

Thursday night

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals : This might be the best game of the weekend, and it lands on Thursday night!  Both teams have excellent offenses and defenses that can slow down opponents.  This might be the closest that someone gets to beating the Cardinals, but I'll give the home team a slight edge.  CARDS, 24-21

Sunday early games

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons : Carolina is spiraling down the drain quickly while the Falcons are finding some new life.  Believe it or not, I think Atlanta will get themselves on the high side of a winning record with a win here.  FALCONS, 17-13

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets : This will be the second biggest blowout game of the week.  BENGALS, 27-13

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills : And this will be the biggest blowout game of the week.  BILLS, 34-16

Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans : The Texans defense has withered away, which gives the Rams a chance to romp.  RAMS, 31-17

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions : The Eagles offense is struggling, but I'm not picking against the worst team in the league until they win or play an equally bad team (like the Jaguars or Jets).  EAGLES, 16-13

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns : The Browns are enjoying a chance to get back for all of the hard years when they were the punching bag of the AFC North.  The Steelers cannot consistently find a rhythm this season, while the Browns are flowing.  Still, the Steelers still have a stiff defense, so this will be a tough battle.  BROWNS, 20-17

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears : Okay, we might have found an opponent the struggling Bears can beat!  The 49ers offense isn't doing much better, and they have trouble holding onto the ball also.  The winner will be the team who makes the fewest errors.  After last week's debacle, you know the Bears will be more careful this week.  BEARS, 17-16

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts : Okay, I'll admit that the Titans are definitely better than I gave them credit.  This is a strong team, both offensively and defensively.  The Colts can't quite get it together, and the Titans are great at throwing off opponents.  TITANS, 24-17

Sunday late games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks : Will the Jags make it two in a row?  Nope.  SEAHAWKS, 24-16

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers : Forget the record, the Patriots are really a good team.  If the Chargers do not watch it, this game will be an upset.  CHARGERS, 20-16

Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints : Without Brees, the Saints are not the same.  Even with Brees I'm not sure they could have beaten the behemoth that Bucs have become, especially since it looks like Gronk will play.  That's a nasty trick, but it's a treat for the Bucs fans.  BUCS, 34-23

Washington at Denver Broncos : It's not easy to play in Denver, and Washington already has trouble catching their breaths -- and catching balls.  BRONCOS, 20-13

Sunday night

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings : I don't care that the Vikings had an extra week to plan for the Cowboys.  This is a dynamic offense that you really can't completely prepare for.  COWBOYS, 31-20

Monday Night Football

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs : Two teams whose offenses are struggling, this won't be a game featuring too many highlights.  Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Giants defense is porous, so the Chiefs will get back to 50%. CHIEFS, 20-16

 

NCAA Football 2021 Week 9 picks

 It looks to be a fairly straightforward week of games, which always makes me nervous.  One thing I know from over 40 years of picking college football games -- every Saturday has a surprise.  We might even see one before Saturday.

Thurs Oct 28

Troy Trojans at #15 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers : Coastal lost last week, which should wake them up and toughen them up.  They had it too easy, and they were unfamiliar with the crosshairs that get attached to a ranked team, as everyone wants the attention boost that comes from knocking off a ranked team.  After all, look at the attention gained by Appalachian State when they upset Michigan all those years ago.  They are still reaping benefits from that.  This week they will buckle down and get the job done, even though the Trojans will try to make that hard for them.  COASTAL CAROLINA by 11

Fri Oct 29

UNLV Running Rebels at Nevada Wolf Pack : Dare we call this one "Running with the Wolf Pack?"  Despite their name, the Running Rebels are having a hard time accumulating yards on the ground this season, and their passing game is only mediocre.  Nevada certainly has the offensive advantage here.  Defenses seem too close to call, so I'll assign an edge to Nevada.  NEVADA by eight

Sat Oct 30

Top 25

#1 Georgia Bulldogs at #23 Florida Gators : An interesting Top 25 matchup!  It can be hard for a team to travel to the Swamp, but the Bulldogs are loaded for bear this season (or, in this case, Gator).  They have one of the four best offenses and the stiffest defense in the country.  Florida is good, but their bench is thin, and Georgia will exhaust these guys.  The first half might be close, but not the second.  GEORGIA by 16

#2 Michigan Wolverines at #6 Michigan State Spartans : This in-state rivalry always gets intense, and now it features two Top Ten teams!  In what might be the most exciting game of the weekend, the Wolverines offense squares off against the Spartan defense.  Defense often wins those battles, but the Spartans must play well to maintain that advantage.  They have a nasty tendency of making critical mental mistakes, which will be made more likely by the emotional rivalry.  MICHIGAN by six

#3 Cincinnati Bearcats at Tulane Green Wave : Unlike last week, this one won't be close.  CINCINNATI by 23

#18 Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : Both Illinois and Iowa exposed the flaws in the Nittany Lions' offense, and their secondary can't keep pace with fast receivers, like those on the Buckeyes squad.  After Illinois' runners did so well (over 330 yards), you wonder about the Nittany Lions' rush defense as well.  Penn State might score first, because Ohio State takes a little time to get gassed up, but that will be their only lead of the game.  OHIO STATE by 17

Texas Tech Red Raiders at #7 Oklahoma Sooners : The Raiders have never had a decent defense, and their offense is pretty low this year.  Easy win for the improving Sooners.  OKLAHOMA by 18

North Carolina Tar Heels at #8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : Carolina started the year nicely, but they've declined since.  Not a good time to be facing the Irish.  NOTRE DAME by 20

Duke Blue Devils at #9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons : The Demon Deacons find themselves in strange territory.  They have never been unbeaten this far into the season, and they've rarely been ranked in the Top Ten.  How will they handle the pressure?  Against a team like Duke, probably fairly well.  WAKE FOREST by 18

Colorado Buffaloes at #10 Oregon Ducks : The Ducks struggled to win last week, which should give them enough incentive to come out strong against the Buffaloes.  OREGON by 20

#11 Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs : The Wildcats had an extra week to prepare for this game, and they might have needed it.  The Bulldogs can get tricky, so I suspect the Wildcats have some surprises up their sleeves as well.  KENTUCKY by 17

#12 Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers : Another Top 25 team who rested last week, it was also a chance for the Hawkeyes to examine their loss against Purdue and shore up some vulnerabilities.  That tightness might help them against Wisconsin, but the Badgers will still play them tough.  Neither team has a smooth-flowing offense, so this will be a classic defensive showdown.  IOWA by four

#13 Ole Miss Rebels at #21 Auburn Tigers : Ooh, I smell an upset brewing in Auburn! The Tigers have lost some punch, but they have the talent to get it back on demand.  This game demands it.  They probably consider it a warmup to the Iron Bowl, and that makes it crucial.  Ole Miss might pull this out, but don't be surprised if the home team hands Ole Miss their second loss of the season.  OLE MISS by three

#14 SMU Mustangs at #20 Houston Cougars : Houston rose five positions last week, but mostly on the weakness of other teams, not on an outstanding performance of their own.   The Mustangs will stretch them, and I think they'll break.  SMU by 11

Texas Longhorns at #17 Baylor Bears : Texas hasn't been the same since their shocking loss in the Red River Shootout.  Watch Baylor, who has amassed an "under the radar" record of 6-1, put the final nail into any Big XII Conference hopes of the Longhorns.  BAYLOR by 13

Fresno State Bulldogs at #24 San Diego State Aztecs : Fresno State is always a tough opponent, and may take a lead into halftime.  That might actually hurt them, because the Aztecs make good halftime adjustments.  SAN DIEGO STATE by eight

Kansas Jayhawks at #25 Oklahoma State Cowboys : Kansas put a scare into Oklahoma last week, so you know the Cowboys will show them no mercy.  OKLAHOMA STATE by 24

Big Ten

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini : Illinois' shocking upset over Penn State last week is something to build upon, and Rutgers is starting to slide.  However, the Illini makes too many mistakes, and the Knights will take advantage of that.  RUTGERS by six

Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins : The Terrapins are having a terrible time in conference play.  Indiana is not playing as well as people expected, but their offense should be too fast for Maryland.  If the Hoosiers defense doesn't get fooled by the Terrapins' tricks, Indiana should win.  INDIANA by eight

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats : This game will be close, because that's how Northwestern plays them, but the Wildcats can't close a game successfully this season.  MINNESOTA by four

Purdue Boilermakers at Nebraska Cornhuskers : Purdue has some power, as they showed against Iowa.  They won't surprise anyone, but them they wouldn't need to surprise the struggling Cornhuskers.  PURDUE by 16

Other Games of Interest

Miami Hurricanes at Pitt Panthers : Pitt is savoring this season, as many of the ACC powerhouses are having a down year.  It's a chance to get a little vengeance on team who ran up the score against them before, like Miami.  PITT by 18

Texas State Bobcats at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns : Sometimes the Bobcats can surprise, but they don't have the firepower this year.  LOUISIANA by 20

Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers : The Mountaineers are really struggling in conference play this season.  After a disappointing start, the Cyclones are showing the power that made them a favorite in this conference in the preseason.  IOWA STATE by 16

Oregon State Beavers at Cal Golden Bears : It may surprise you to know that the Beavers are tied with Oregon for the North division lead.  Who is the worst team in that division?  Cal.  OREGON STATE by 20

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack : The Wolfpack don't always win big, but they keep winning.  With the struggles suffered by Louisville this season, this might be a bigger win than usual.  NC STATE by 18

NFL 2021 Week 7 results

 What I thought was a fairly easy week to pick turned out to be a tough week to win.  Ah, well, it sometimes works that way.

Top Teams [Last week's position]

1.  Arizona Cardinals (7-0) [1]

2.  Tampa Bay Bucs (6-1) [3] : Dominant performance by the Super Bowl Champs

3.  Dallas Cowboys (5-1) [2]

4.  Buffalo Bills (4-2) [4]

5.  Los Angeles Rams (6-1) [5]

6.  Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) [8] : The new leader of the strongest division climbs after thoroughly thrashing their divisional opponent

7.  New Orleans Saints (4-2) [7]

8.  Tennessee Titans (5-2) [9] : They utterly embarrassed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs

9.  Green Bay Packers (6-1) [10] : Their opening week debacle is swiftly becoming a distant memory

10. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [6] : They fell from their divisional perch and landed with a thud

11. Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) [12] : Never count this team out

12. Cleveland Browns (4-3) [17] : They return to the upper echelons of the league in style

Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  AFC North [3] : The only division with three teams in the Top 12 and the only division without a losing team

2.  NFC West [1] : Tough loss for the 49ers and the Rams had trouble with the worst team in the league

3.  NFC South [2] : Carolina's huge loss was the only blemish.  They are close to the NFC West, and should jump ahead next week

4.  AFC West [4] : Denver continues to fall after a strong start, and the offense looks anemic in Kansas City

5.  AFC East [5] : Huge win for the Pats, but Miami and the Jets are toast

6 (tie). NFC North [6] : Green Bay is the cream of the crop, the others have marginal reaps

6 (tie). NFC East [7] : Although the Giants won this week, this division is looking much more like they have looked in recent years, except their divisional leader has a strong winning record

8.  AFC South [8] : Both Tennessee and the Colts won this week, but this division has a lot of ground to make up

NCAA Football 2021 Week 8 results

 Even with plenty of ranked teams sitting out with a bye week, we had Top 25 upsets and some very close games.  We had the first test of the new overtime rules, and I think they failed (more on that to come).

Top 25 [Last week's position]

1.  Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [1]

2.  Michigan Wolverines (7-0) [4] : The Wolverines position themselves in a strong position in preparation to face their in-state rivals

3.  Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0) [2] : Not a pretty win

4.  Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [5] : Definition of dominance.  Best victory among Top 25 teams

5.  Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [6] : They struggled early against Tennessee, but they took control in the second half.  That was a better performance than many in the Top 25

6.  Michigan State Spartans (7-0) [7]

7.  Oklahoma Sooners (8-0) [9] : How do you rise two positions when you struggle against conference doormat Kansas? That's an indication of the type of weekend it was for the Top 25 teams!

8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [13]

9.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-0) [14] : This might be the highest position the Demon Deacons have ever reached in my rankings

10. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [10] : I accidentally typed "Oregon Sucks" when I was typing their name, and that almost accurately describes their performance this week.  They really should have lost that game.

11. Kentucky Wildcats (6-1) [11]

12. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) [12]

13. Ole Miss Rebels (6-1) [16]

14. SMU Mustangs (7-0) [18]

15. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-1) [8]

16. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [20]

17. Baylor Bears (6-1) [17]

18. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2) [3] : What happened to their run defense?  What happened to their offense?  Since they face Ohio State next week, this might be their last week in the rankings

19. UTSA Roadrunners (7-0) [24]

20. Houston Cougars (6-1) [25] : Like most Top 25 teams this week, they had only 30 minutes of decent play.  For Houston, though, it happened to be most of the first half and the final few minutes of the fourth quarter.

21. Auburn Tigers (5-2) [21]

22. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) [22]

23. Florida Gators (4-3) [23]

24. San Diego State Aztecs (7-0) [27]

25. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) [15]

On the Edge: NC State Wolfpack (5-2), Pitt Panthers (6-1), Iowa State Cyclones (5-2), Oregon State Beavers (5-2), Louisiana Ragin Cajuns (6-1), Air Force Falcons (6-2), Texas Longhorns (4-3)

Big Ten Report

Well, four of the games went pretty much as expected.  The exception is the most talked-about upset of the weekend.  Penn State was a 24.5-point favorite against Illinois.  Instead, their offense could not figure out how to outmaneuver the Illini defense.  Worse, the vaulted defense of Linebacker U couldn't stop ANY of Illinois' three runners.  Chase Brown gained more than 220 yards, a personal best and more than a single runner has gained against the Nittany Lions in nearly 40 years.  In total, the Illini gained over 330 yards on the ground, an achievement no team has done against Penn State in over 25 years.

And then there's the NINE overtime periods.  For those of you who were surprised, the NCAA revised their overtime rules this year.  In an attempt to prevent long-running games and help reduce injuries to the players, they required that teams attempt a 2-point conversion for touchdowns beginning in overtime period two, instead of the third period that was previously required.  Furthermore, if a game went into a third overtime period, teams would only make one play from the three-yard line (a two-point conversion) instead a drive from the 25-yard line.

So, how did that work out on Saturday?  The Penn State - Illinois game turned out to be the longest-running game in NCAA history (you cannot count the late-night Houston - East Carolina game, because it ran so late due to a 5.5 hour lightning delay.  It was not the longest PLAYING game), so it failed to reduce the length of the game.  During the nine overtime periods, two key players were injured, including Illini quarterback Artur Sitkowski.  That turned out to be Illinois' saving grace.  Sitkowski left with a sprained wrist in the seventh overtime period, and Brandon Peters, former starting QB who was injured against Wisconsin yet was cleared for this game, came in and engineered their two successive conversions, the second one after a failed attempt by Penn State that sealed the victory and FINALLY ended the game.

Upset Report

Well, after the Illinois-Penn State game, I suppose any upsets would be anti-climactic.  However, we had two upsets even BEFORE that game.  Wednesday night had the first one of the week, as Appalachian State finally found traces of their previous seasons' strengths and handed Coastal Carolina their first loss of the season.  The next night found Charlotte be totally powerless against usually pathetic Florida Atlantic.

Upsets didn't end with the Penn State loss.  Other Top 25 teams faced scares, while Wyoming fell to doormat New Mexico and weak Louisville ousted Boston College.

NFL 2021 Week 7 picks

 We have an interesting dichotomy this week.  Most of the games should either be blowouts or close enough to be won by either team.  That doesn't happen often.

Thursday night

Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns : Either team here could win.  The Broncos are a bit more inconsistent, and sometimes implode upon themselves, so I'm pick the Browns, but a Broncos win here would not surprise me.  BROWNS, 23-21

Sunday early games

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins : The Dolphins are embarrassed about being the first team defeated by the Jaguars.  They want to regain some self-esteem, and attacking the struggling Falcons is an excellent way to do that.  DOLPHINS, 20-17

Carolina Panthers at New York Giants : Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants offense seems adrift, and the defense hasn't stepped up to support them.  PANTHERS, 26-13

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens : The Ravens are tough on divisional opponents, but the Bengals are a tough team.  Whoever wins this will gain a close and hard-fought victory.  RAVENS, 27-24

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans : The Titans are high after their upset victory over the Bills.  They can't get overconfident, though, as the Chiefs roll into town.  Somehow, I think the 3-3 record of the Chiefs will make them overconfident, opening the chance for the Chiefs to push past them.  CHIEFS, 28-26

New York Jets at New England Patriots : The Patriots are not having a good year, but the Jets are having a worse one.  PATRIOTS, 21-13

Washington at Green Bay Packers : With their offensive lines woes seemingly fixed, the Packers are rolling, and rolling over Washington will not be difficult.  PACKERS, 31-13

Sunday late games

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs powerful offense will make mincemeat of the Bears tender defense.  BUCS, 31-17

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams : A Top Five team facing the worst team in the league?  This one is easy.  RAMS, 30-10

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals : The Texans defense has completely fallen this season, and they have to take on one of the most dynamic offenses of the league?  Ouch.  CARDINALS, 34-9

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders : The Raiders are a bit of an "up and down" team, but they should be up for the rickety Eagles.  RAIDERS, 24-14

Sunday night

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers : The Colts got a footing this past week, but some personnel changes this week will shake that up.  The 49ers had an extra week to gain some strength, and I think that will be reflected in this game.  49ERS, 20-13

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks : Seattle is a strange team this year.  They have talent, they have a good game plan, but their execution has often been off.  Russell Wilson got to act like an assistant coach last week, but it wasn't enough to prevail against the Steelers.  I don't think they'll get past the Saints, either.  SAINTS, 27-24

NFL 2021 Week 6 results

 Some shockers shook up the rankings!  At least our divisional ties were all broken.

Top Teams [Last week's position]

1.  Arizona Cardinals (6-0) [1] : Still leading the pack, and pulling away

2.  Dallas Cowboys (5-1) [3] : If they could only erase their opening week loss this team would be unbeaten

3.  Tampa Bay Bucs (5-1) [4]

4.  Buffalo Bills (4-2) [2] : They tried to come back, but they couldn't seem to stop the Titans

5.  Los Angeles Rams (5-1) [6] : They're looking impressive

6.  Baltimore Ravens (5-1) [8] : Here's a team, like Dallas, that gets better every week

7.  New Orleans Saints (3-2) [7]

8.  Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) [13] : Strong victory; of course, it was against the new worst team in the league (since Jacksonville won)

9.  Tennessee Titans (4-2) [12] : Their performance against the tough Bills defense really shined

10.  Green Bay Packers (5-1) [14] : Like Dallas, a team working to erase a season opening loss

11. Carolina Panthers (3-3) [10] : Three consecutive losses and their luster is fading.  At least they hung in close this week, forcing the game to overtime

12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-2) [17] : Despite coaching distractions they still beat the Broncos

Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]

1.  NFC West [1] : The teams don't look as powerful as previous weeks, but with Arizona and the Rams playing so well, the division is still a threat.

2.  NFC South [1] : Carolina's collapse is starting to hurt them

3.  AFC North [3] : Everybody won this week!

4.  AFC West [3] : Like the AFC North, there is not a losing team in the bunch

5.  AFC East [6] : Despite no wins this week, the division still crept up.  How'd that happen?

6.  NFC North [6] : Green Bay and Minnesota charted wins

7.  NFC East [5] : Only Dallas won, and they are becoming the only decent team in the division.  They are falling to the bottom, where they spent the past two seasons.

8.  AFC South [8] : Of course, for the NFC East to get to the bottom, this division will have to improve.  With both Indianapolis and Jacksonville winning this week, that is happening

 

NCAA Football 2021 Week 8 picks

 Despite the last two weeks, I am picking all of the MAC games, as I pick all FBS games.  Keeping my fingers crossed that this conference doesn't get as crazy as it has the past two weeks.

Wed Oct 20

#8 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Appalachian State Mountaineers : The Mountaineers aren't as tough as they have been, and the Chanticleers are just demolishing all of their opposition.  Could there be an argument for TWO Group of Five teams in the playoff picture?  COASTAL CAROLINA by 16

Thurs Oct 21

Tulane Green Wave at #18 SMU Mustangs : The Mustangs are unbeaten and having a fabulous year.  For Tulane, it's a typical down year.  SMU by 23

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves : The Cajuns are rolling, and are already poised to win their division.  Unfortunately, that comes with a championship game against Coastal Carolina.  LOUISIANA by 13

Fri Oct 22

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies : The Rams have caught fire after a terrible non-conference series.  They currently lead the Mountain division.  Utah State was an early favorite to win the division, and a win here puts them in the driver's seat.  This will be a hard-fought battle that could go either way, but I favor the surprise factor of the Rams.  COLORADO STATE by six

Sat Oct 23

Top 25

#2 Cincinnati Bearcats at Navy Midshipmen : Navy is not having a great year, so this won't be a challenging game for the Bearcats.  CINCY by 26

Illinois Fighting Illini at #3 Penn State Nittany Lions : After sitting a week to iron out their difficulties from their loss to Iowa, the Lions will be ready for a killer performance.  PENN STATE by 23

Northwestern Wildcats at #4 Michigan Wolverines : The Wildcats defense is starting to improve, but they won't be able to halt the dynamic Michigan offense.  MICHIGAN by 20

#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers : The Buckeyes took an extra week to prepare, as the Hoosiers have surprised them in the past.  I don't see that happening here, as the Buckeyes have improved greatly since their loss to Oregon.  OHIO STATE by 23

Tennessee Volunteers at #6 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Tide continues to roll as they want a chance to regain a position in the playoff race.  ALABAMA by 20

#9 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks : Well, ANYBODY can look good when they play Kansas.  OKLAHOMA by 30

#10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins : The Ducks have to be cautious, as the Bruins are a good team and could engineer an upset.  If the Ducks don't get careless with the ball, they should win, but the Bruins will make it interesting.  OREGON by eight

USC Trojans at #13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Trojans are having a tough year, but they always battle Notre Dame hard, and I don't see this year as an exception to that.  NOTRE DAME by nine

#14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights : Can Army bounce back from the thrashing experienced at the hands of Wisconsin?  They took some casualties, which will add to their difficulties.  Wake, however, is fresh off a bye week.  WAKE FOREST by eleven

#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones : The Cyclones were early favorites to compete for the conference title.  That doesn't seem likely, but will they play spoiler and defeat previously undefeated Oklahoma State?  They certainly have the offense to do it, and their defense is potent as well.  If the Cowboys aren't careful, they will end up with their first loss of the season.  OKLAHOMA STATE by three

LSU Tigers at #16 Ole Miss Rebels : LSU just doesn't have the might they have had in previous years.  OLE MISS by 13

#19 NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes : Let's face it, Miami is having a tough year, and they have to face one of the stingiest defenses in the conference.  A shutout could be possible.  NC STATE by 20

South Carolina Gamecocks at #20 Texas A&M Aggies : That Aggie defense is a tough one; too tough for the Gamecocks.  TEXAS A&M

#24 UTSA Roadrunners at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs : The Roadrunners will run all over the struggling Bulldogs.  UTSA by 23

East Carolina Pirates at #25 Houston Cougars : The usually staunch defense of the Pirates is somewhat lacking this year.  In fact, Houston has the better defense.  They have the better offense, too.  HOUSTON by 20

Big Ten

Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers : Beating Iowa last week put Purdue into the national rankings, but that was not appropriate.  Yes, they beat Iowa, and they beat Oregon State to start the season.  However, they fell to Minnesota and nearly lost to struggling Illinois.  Wisconsin's three defeats?  Against Top Ten ranked Penn State and Michigan, and also to ranked Notre Dame.  Wisconsin played Notre Dame closer than Purdue did, and Wisconsin shut out Illinois.  Not really much question who should win this game.  WISCONSIN by nine

Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Despite an impressive non-conference performance, the Terrapins have struggled in conference play.  The Gophers have done much better; their lone conference loss to Ohio State to start the season.  I like the Gophers defense to frustrate Maryland all game long.  MINNESOTA by 13

Other Games of Interest

Clemson Tigers at Pitt Panthers : The Clemson offense continues to sputter, a fact the Panthers defense will clearly exploit.  Pitt is not used to this situation -- favored against Clemson.  If they don't get cocky, they will win this game.  PITT by 16

San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force Falcons : A battle between two teams on the verge of the Top 25! Both teams have been very impressive this season.  Air Force has the stronger offense while the Aztecs have the defense.  Defense usually wins in these showdowns, but I was very impressed with the Falcons performance last weekend, and I believe they have turned a page.  The Aztecs have played mostly easy opponents so far, and haven't been stretched.  This game will stretch them, and I think they will be stretched just a bit too far.  AIR FORCE by eight

Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers : The Utes lead the South division, but the Beavers can be tough to face at home.  The Utes don't have a great road record this season, and their offense is inconsistent.  A couple of bad mistakes will take them out of the game.  OREGON STATE by 14

NCAA Football 2021 Week 7 results

 Once again the MAC proved my undoing, as I correctly predicted only two of their games.  Other upsets through off the rankings, making an interesting week despite the large number of ranked teams who had a bye week.

Top 25 [Last week's position]

1.  Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [1]

2.  Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0) [6] : A Gang of Five team arrives at Number Two, as they have proven to be one of the most consistent unbeaten teams not from Georgia

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) [3]

4.  Michigan Wolverines (6-0) [4]

5.  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [5]

6.  Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) [7]

7.  Michigan State Spartans (7-0) [8]

8.  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-0) [9]

9.  Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [17] : The Sooners have proven to be stronger than their early start belied.  They are the team to beat in the Big XII now.

10. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [11]

11. Kentucky Wildcats (6-1) [10] : They scored more against Georgia than any other opponent this season

12. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1) [2] : Their defense couldn't stop Purdue and their offense was absent

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [13]

14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-0) [14]

15. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [NR]

16. Ole Miss Rebels (5-1) [16]

17. Baylor Bears (6-1) [29] : With Oklahoma State, there are two new Big XII teams in the rankings

18. SMU Mustangs (6-0) [18]

19. NC State Wolfpack (5-1) [23]

20. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [20]

21. Auburn Tigers (5-2) [21]

22. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) [15]

23. Florida Gators (4-3) [12]

24. UTSA Roadrunners (6-0) [NR]

25. Houston Cougars (5-1) [25]

On the Edge: Air Force Falcons (6-1), San Diego State Aztecs (6-0), Pitt Panthers (5-1), Oregon State Beavers (4-2), Fresno State Bulldogs (5-2), Texas Longhorns (4-3)

Dropped off: Texas Longhorns [#19], BYU Cougars [#22], Arkansas Razorbacks [#24]

Big Ten Report

There were surprises in the conference this weekend.  Wisconsin tightened their belt and knocked off Army.  Indiana gave Michigan State everything they could handle.  Northwestern found their strength and blew away Rutgers.  But perhaps the biggest surprise was delivered by Purdue, who found success with three different quarterbacks and tore apart the conference-leading defense of the Iowa Hawkeyes, handing them their first loss of the season and dropping them WAY down in the rankings.  Despite that, Iowa still leads the West Division and has the easiest path to the conference championship game, since they don't face any of the Top Ten teams (since they have already faced Penn State).

Upset Report

I've mentioned how the MAC has frustrated me the past two weeks.  The performance of Western Michigan is an excellent example.  Here was a team who had averaged less than fifteen points per game in their previous conference matches.  This week they score 64 points in a thorough thrashing of the division-leading Kent State Golden Flashes.  

Florida faced their third loss, falling to LSU.  The Tigers have struggled this season, and they allowed the Gators to score 42 points, but Florida couldn't figure out what the LSU offense was doing, and they lit up the scoreboard.  Stanford suffered their FOURTH loss at the hands of Washington State, who had a negative point differential coming into this game.  The Cardinal now have no shot at the Pac-12 title.

Liberty, an independent who had only one loss coming into this week, suffered their second loss at the hands of pathetic UL Monroe, who had given up TWICE as many points as they had scored.  That didn't stop them from sending the Flames home with their tails between their legs.  Lastly, Arizona State found their ranking in jeopardy as they completely fell apart in the second half against Utah, and allowed the Utes to score 28 unanswered points.

NFL 2021 Week 6 picks

I'm picking plenty of the visiting teams this week, but I have noticed that the addition of fans this season hasn't really given much of a home field advantage to most teams.

Thursday night

Tampa Bay Bucs at Philadelphia Eagles : The Bucs offense is rocking while the Eagles are still trying to get their feet under themselves.  BUCS, 34-17

Sunday morning (from London)

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars : Geez, we couldn't get any better representatives of American football than the two worst teams in the league?  Is anyone even going to be watching this game?  And I have to pick this monstrosity?  Statistically, the Jags are actually a slightly better team, but they can't seem to get out their own way.  And since many of the players are not happy with Coach Meyer right now, that will likely affect their play.  DOLPHINS, 16-13

Sunday early games

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions : The Lions can be tough at home, so this game might be closer than it deserves to be.  BENGALS, 23-17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears : I'd love to think my Bears can pull off the upset, but Montgomery might still be out. Without him running, they have to rely too much on Justin Fields' passing.  PACKERS, 24-20

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts : After watching the Colts' performance last week, they are definitely favored for this game.  The Texans have to get out of their slump sometime, and a divisional game like one might be the incentive, but it won't be enough.  COLTS, 24-17

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington : Washington is in the middle of a major distraction, as former staffers and cheerleaders are charging the front office with unfair business practices and discrimination.  It is rumored some players are supporting the effort, so I smell dissension in the ranks.  Ripe for a Chiefs blowout.  CHIEFS, 27-13

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens : Ooh, this might be closest game of the weekend!  The Ravens offense is a bit inconsistent.  Lamar Jackson is hot right now, but he can go cold at any moment.  The Chargers defense might be stiff enough to freeze him, so I'll go with the Chargers, but this is really a toss-up game.  CHARGERS, 27-26

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants : This one isn't.  It doesn't look like Saquan Barkley will play, so the Rams will roll.  RAMS, 31-13

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers : The Panthers are in a bit of an offensive slump, and the Vikings offense has been inconsistent.  The Panthers certainly have the stronger team, provided they don't make too many mistakes.  PANTHERS, 20-17

Sunday late games

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns : Could the Browns offense have what it takes to stop the dynamic Cardinals offense and force their first loss of the season?  Maybe, but I think they'll only slow them, keeping the game close.  CARDS, 27-23

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots : The Pats defense has holes, so the Cowboys will romp.  COWBOYS, 31-16

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos : Thanks to all of the distractions over Jon Gruden (which might have contributed to their loss to the Bears last week), the Raiders will not have focused well during practice, allowing the Broncos a chance to shine here.  BRONCOS, 20-13

Sunday night

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers are starting to find their way back, so this game might go either way.  Still, I'm not sure the Steelers have ironed out all of their problems, so I'll stick with Seattle.  SEAHAWKS, 23-20

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans : The Titans defense cannot stop the behemoth that is the Bills offense.  BILLS, 34-17

NCAA Football 2021 Week 7 picks

 It's a bye week for many top teams, but there are still some interesting games on the plate.

Thurs Oct 14

Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers : This is an important game for both teams.  Neither of them are having the type of season that they typically enjoy.  A win here could help one of them start to get back on track.  So who will that be?  Navy is struggling to move the ball, while Memphis' defense makes frequent mistakes.  Still, those mistakes will be less noticeable against a team that cannot exploit them.  MEMPHIS by eight

Fri Oct 15

Marshall Thundering Herd at North Texas Mean Green : Marshall has slipped after the season so strongly, but North Texas is really having a tough year.  This game could mark a comeback for the Herd.  MARSHALL by 11

Cal Golden Bears at #11 Oregon Ducks : Did Oregon really need an extra week to prepare for Cal?  This one should be fairly easy.  OREGON by 16

San Diego State Aztecs at San Jose State Spartans : A strong win here could launch the Aztecs into the Top 25.  SAN DIEGO STATE by 20

Sat Oct 16

Top 25

#10 Kentucky Wildcats at #1 Georgia Bulldogs : Kentucky may score more points against this top-ranked Bulldogs defense than any other team so far this season, but I don't think they are strong enough to pull off the upset.  GEORGIA by 14

Purdue Boilermakers at #2 Iowa Hawkeyes : Most of the rest of the ranked Big Ten rest this week, but Iowa doesn't get a breather after their exciting win over Penn State last week.  Or, actuallly, since they are playing Purdue, maybe they do.  IOWA by 20

UCF Golden Knights at #6 Cincinnati Bearcats : I'm sure when this game was scheduled, they figured it would be a nice challenge for a likely unbeaten UCF team.  Surprise!  UCF is in the midst of a rebuilding year while the unbeaten Bearcats chase a possible playoff spot (highly likely at this point, since three of the Big Ten teams in front of them will have to bow out at some point).  CINCY by 21

#7 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs : The Tide are hungry for a win after their upset loss to the Aggies, and they get a great chew toy in the Bulldogs, who are struggling to stay upright after the departure of their coach.  ALABAMA by 26

#8 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers : This game seemed a lot closer (and a possible Hoosier win) when I considered it in my preseason preview column.  My, how times have changed.  MICHIGAN STATE by 17

#12 Florida Gators at LSU Tigers : Not a good year for LSU, who right now have a NEGATIVE point differential against FBS teams.  That negative will get bigger this week.  FLORIDA by 21

#15 Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes : Utah pulled off a fine showing last week, but the Sun Devils have power.  If they can beat Oregon, this could be the Sun Devils year to win the Pac-12.  ARIZONA STATE by 16

#16 Ole Miss Rebels at Tennessee Volunteers : Tennessee started the year well, but they have foundered in SEC play.  On the other hand, the Rebs have looked good, even against Alabama.  OLE MISS by 20

TCU Horned Frogs at #17 Oklahoma Sooners :  Now we see if the Red River Rivalry comeback was due to the team gelling or due to the emotion of the rivalry.  TCU can play tough.  I think Oklahoma will win, but if I am right, and the comeback against Texas was NOT completely due to the latent talent of the Sooners finally coming out, then this will be a very close game.  OKLAHOMA by three

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #19 Texas Longhorns : The Cowboys picked the wrong time to come to Austin.  The Longhorns just lost a crucial rivalry game against the other team from Oklahoma, and they want to take it out on someone.  That "someone" will be the Cowboys.  Expect a lot of tough tackles and a few injuries as Texas chews up yardage and chews up bandages.  TEXAS by nine

#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers : This should be an easy win for the Aggies, unless they get careless and are still celebrating their upset over Alabama.  TEXAS A&M by 18

#21 Auburn Tigers at #24 Arkansas Razorbacks : Unless this is a really tight game, this will likely be the last week in the Top 25 for one of these two.  Arkansas battled Ole Miss hard last week to make up for their total destruction against Georgia.  Auburn is playing better, too, and their defense is waking up.  We saw what a good defense can do against Arkansas.  AUBURN by nine

#22 BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears : Whoops, here's my first outright upset pick.  BYU hasn't really been tested, and Baylor is being ignored by the national analysts.  They want attention, and beating a ranked team is a good way to get it.  BAYLOR by six

#23 NC State Wolfpack at Boston College Eagles : Both teams took a week off last week to prepare for this game.  Both teams are 4-1.  The Wolfpack have the better offense while the Eagles have the better defense.  Defense usually wins these battles, but I like the tenaciousness of the Wolfpack, although this game could go either way.  NC STATE by two

Big Ten

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers :  Minnesota hasn't quite lived up to expectations this season, but I expect they should be able to hold back Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers won't make it easy, though, and may take the lead at some point.  Nebraska has a problem with turnovers, though, and Minnesota will look to take advantage of that.  MINNESOTA by six

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Northwestern Wildcats : Definitely a down year for the Wildcats.  RUTGERS by 13

Army Black Knights at Wisconsin Badgers : Army comes to Camp Randall with the type of hard-corps running attack that used to epitomize Wisconsin.  Their defense should know how to stop it, but are they capable of actually doing so?  I'm not sure this team is, even if they did shut out Illinois last week.  ARMY by 13

Other Games of Interest

Yale Bulldogs at UConn Huskies : Ah, an FCS team.  This is an opponent UConn can beat, right?  Not this year.  YALE by eight

Pitt Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies : Both of these team are teetering on the brink of the Top 25 rankings.  A strong finish might push the winner over the edge.  I think this will be a close game, though, so the winner might still find themselves outside the cherished land.  VIRGINIA TECH by four

Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats : The Wildcats excellent non-conference record is withering under the strength of the Big XII conference.  The Cyclones have proven not be the Top 25 team national analysts predicted, but they are still a strong team, one strong enough to continue the downward spiral of the Wildcats.  IOWA STATE by nine

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos : The Broncos can be tough at home, but they have also been very inconsistent this season, and quite penalty-prone.  The Falcons play error-free ball, and that should make the difference here.  AIR FORCE by eight

NFL 2021 Week 5 results

 Some interesting game results led to some VERY interesting divisional rankings.

Top Teams [Last week's position]

1.  Arizona Cardinals (5-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team remaining strengthened their claim with a decisive victory over San Francisco

2.  Buffalo Bills (4-1) [2] : They continue to be the best offense in the league

3.  Dallas Cowboys (4-1) [6] : Continuing to move up, the Cowboys are a major threat in the NFC

4.  Tampa Bay Bucs (4-1) [8]

5.  Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) [7] : They survived Cleveland and take sole possession of the division lead

6.  Los Angeles Rams (4-1) [9]

7.  New Orleans Saints (3-2) [11] : The offense got back on track in Washington

8.  Baltimore Ravens (4-1) [12] : They got lucky against the Colts.  They really should have lost that game.  Their defense still needs work, and their offense needs consistency.

9.  Cleveland Browns (3-2) [4]

10. Carolina Panthers (3-2) [5] : Two losses in a row for the Panthers

11. Denver Broncos (3-2) [3] : Same fate for the Broncos, who looked lost against Pittsburgh

12. Tennessee Titans (3-2) [NR]

Division Rankings [Last week's position]

We've got ties galore this week!

1 (tie). NFC West [2] : Back to the top despite two close losses

1 (tie). NFC South [3] : Despite a Panthers loss, every one else won, and they mustered three teams in the top twelve

3 (tie). AFC West [1] : They took a tumble as everyone except the Chargers lost

3 (tie). AFC North [4]

5. NFC East [5]

6 (tie). AFC East [6] : Bills continue to shine and Pats won a squeaker, but this division overall is not good

6 (tie). NFC North [7] : Wins by everyone except Detroit are promising.  Green Bay seems to have ironed out their line problems, new Bears QB Justin Fields is starting to get comfortable, and the Vikings have potential if they can just play more consistently and with fewer errors

8.  AFC South [8] : Despite a nice performance by Indy, this division still lacks punch

NCAA Football 2021 Week 6 results

 It was a weekend full of upsets, but surprisingly we only lost one Top 25 team.

Top 25 [Last week's position]

1.  Georgia Bulldogs (6-0) [2]

2.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-0) [5] : Excellent defense against Penn State

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1) [3] : They gave Iowa everything they could handle

4.  Michigan Wolverines (6-0) [4] : They barely survived Nebraska.  They would have dropped, except so much havoc was happening at this area of the rankings.

5.  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [7]

6.  Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) [6]

7.  Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) [1]

8.  Michigan State Spartans (6-0) [8] : Not a pretty win, but a win is significant in this week of upsets

9.  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-0)

10. Kentucky Wildcats (6-0) [12]

11. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [11]

12. Florida Gators (4-2) [15]

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [13] : They had to fight off an upset

14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-0) [14] : The Demon Deacons almost suffered their first loss

15. Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) [22]

16. Ole Miss Rebels (4-1) [16]

17. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) [25] : Winning the Red River Rivalry has been their own impressive win this season.  Was it due to an improving team or was it due to the intense rivalry?  We'll see next week

18. SMU Mustangs (6-0) [18]

19. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [10]

20. Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) [24] : Knocking off the top team improves their stock

21. Auburn Tigers (4-2) [17]

22. BYU Cougars (5-1) [19]

23. NC State Wolfpack (4-1) [23]

24. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-2) [20] : They hung in well against Ole Miss

25. Houston Cougars (5-1) [26]

On the Edge: Air Force Falcons (5-1), Army Black Knights (4-1), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-2), Baylor Bears (5-1), UTSA Roadrunners (5-0), Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0), San Diego State Aztecs (5-0), Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-1)

Dropped off: Oregon State Beavers [#21]

Big Ten Report

Well, the games went pretty much as expected.  Iowa and Penn State played each other as close as you could want.  Ohio State and Michigan State both dominated.  Wisconsin's defeat of Illinois was expected, but the shutout was not.  The biggest surprise was the success that Nebraska's offense had against Michigan.  That defense needs to stiffen if they expect to beat teams like Penn State and Ohio State.

Upset Report

When the weekend began, it looked like I wouldn't have much to report.  There were no upsets through Thursday and Friday, and none among the early games on Saturday.  That didn't last.

The MAC suffered only one official upset, although my picks were not coming through.  In fact, I correctly picked only ONE MAC game.  But Ball State's defeat of division-leading Western Michigan was a shock.

Obviously the big news was Alabama's upset, but the lower ranks of the Top 25 suffered upsets as well.  In fact, the first upset of the day was suffered by BYU, who fell to Boise State.  Perhaps the Bulldogs have resolved some of their earlier troubles.  Oregon State lost to Washington State later.  Combine that with the last upset of the day, Utah's defeat of USC, and the Pac-12 is thrown into disarray again.  Could it be Arizona State's year?

Two other significant upsets struck the ACC and Big XII.  Florida State, who had been absolutely atrocious this season, knocked off North Carolina.  Then, at night, struggling TCU handed Texas Tech a huge loss.

NFL 2021 Week 5 picks

 I've had a rough season so far, and last week was barely over 50%.  I could do just as well if I picked using a dart board!  Oh well, I will continue to persevere, and hopefully my prognostication skills will improve.

Thursday night

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks : Seattle can be a tough place to play, but I have noticed that even the return of the fans hasn't really given most teams a home field advantage.  Both teams have decent defenses, so the primary difference is the offense.  Russell Wilson has been a bit off, and the offense reflects that.  Matthew Stafford has been doing a wonderful job, but he is showing the same overthrow tendencies that limited his effectiveness with the Lions.  This will be a low-scoring defensive challenge, and strangely Seattle has a tendency to lose close games.  RAMS, 23-20

Sunday early morning

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons : The NFL returns to London for a battle between two one-win teams.  The eerie quiet of the London fans will probably be more strange to the Jets, who are used to boisterous (often annoying) antics from their fans.  The more experienced Falcons will probably like the calm setting, and therefore perform better.  FALCONS, 20-13

 Sunday early games

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers : Oh man, the Steelers are really having problems.  Denver running attack has been mostly ineffective, but Teddy Bridgewater has turned the passing attack into a force.  He may not play, though, as he needs to pass the concussion protocol.  Drew Lock is capable but not nearly so dynamic, and may have problems against the Steelers defense.  Bridgewater isn't participating in drills until Thursday, so we don't know if he will play.  Thus, I offer two picks - if he plays, and if he doesn't.  BRONCOS 23-13 (if Teddy plays), STEELERS 16-13 (if not)

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings : I hate to say this to my Detroit friends, but the Lions are truly pathetic this year.  The offense can't seem to get it into gear and the defense couldn't stop a kid on a tricycle.  VIKINGS, 24-13

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals : This game will really test if the Pack have fixed their offensive line woes, because this Bengals defense will test them.  I think the Pack still needs to do a little more work on that end, so this game will be close, but a late game error due to a scrambling Aaron Rodgers may seal the deal for Cincy.  BENGALS, 27-24

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Bucs : Sorry, Miami, but this battle of Florida is an easy pick.  BUCS, 27-16

New England Patriots at Houston Texans : People are taking about Pittsburgh (and a 2-2 Chiefs team), but the most shocking decline this season for me has to be the Houston Texans.  Their usual vaulted defense is weak, and Davis Mills just isn't shaping up at QB.  Mac Jones is starting to get his bearings, so the Pats definitely have the edge at QB.  Oddly, they also have the defensive edge.  PATS, 24-16

New Orleans Saints at Washington : Jameis Winston is still showing the inconsistencies that he has suffered in his previous NFL stops, but the defense and running game has bailed him out.  Washington is yet to find a clear identity, but one thing is certain -- their defense stinks!  SAINTS, 27-17

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers : It looks like Christian McCaffrey will be playing again this Sunday, so that boosts the Panthers offense.  Sam Darnold is still a bit inconsistent, but he definitely is playing better than he did as a Jet.  PANTHERS, 31-20

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars : The team is starting to lose faith in their coach, and (as I predicted, I might add) Trevor Lawrence's development progresses at a snail's pace.  Not a good situation.  TITANS, 23-13

 Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders : The Bears have a terrible record against the Raiders, no matter where they are located.  RAIDERS, 27-10

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers : This is the closest to a "toss up" game I think we will see all season.  I'd love to skip this one, but I pick them all.  Really either team could win this game.  Justin Herbert is more flashy than Baker Mayfield, but Mayfield has a better sense of what is happening on the field.  Both teams have stiff defenses.  Home field might help the Chargers, but special teams favors Cleveland.  I'll go for the surprise Browns win, but this one is really a gut feeling.  BROWNS, 23-21

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys : Ain't no way the Giants defense is stopping that offense.  COWBOYS, 30-17

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals : The only remaining unbeaten team should remain so for a while.  CARDINALS, 28-17

Sunday night

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs : Both teams have great offenses, but the Chiefs defense has really been poor recently.  That certain swings this game to the visitors.  BILLS, 30-24

Monday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens : The Colts offense is really having some trouble, and the Ravens defense will just add to their problems.  RAVENS, 23-10

NCAA Football 2021 Week 6 picks

 Not as many exciting games as last week, but we do see several matchups of ranked teams.  Of course, we also have the Red River Rivalry, where rankings really don't matter.

Thurs Oct 7

#9 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Arkansas State Red Wolves : Lost in the conversation about Cincinnati is another highly-ranked Power 5 team, the highest rank a Sun Belt team has ever achieved.  At this point, it looks like Coastal Carolina will coast (pun intended) to an unbeaten season.  COASTAL CAROLINA by 16

Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave : Houston should easily demolish the Green Wave, who themselves near the bottom of the American Athletic Conference.  HOUSTON by 20

Fri Oct 8

Temple Owls at #6 Cincinnati Bearcats : The Owls beat Memphis, but they have struggled overall and find themselves horribly overmatched here.  CINCINNATI by 18

Stanford Cardinal at #22 Arizona State Sun Devils : This won't be an easy game for the Sun Devils.  The Cardinal can be a tough team (just ask UCLA), very tenacious and clever.  For the Sun Devils to win, they have to ensure they don't make any serious ball-handling mistakes.  Even one turnover might be enough for Stanford to win.  ARIZONA STATE by four

Sat Oct 9

Top 25

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #24 Texas A&M Aggies : This will likely be the Aggies last week in the Top 25 for a while, as I don't see them getting past Alabama.  ALABAMA by 16

#2 Georgia Bulldogs at #17 Auburn Tigers : After the bruising administered to the Razorbacks last week, what chance does Auburn have?  GEORGIA by 20

#3 Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Iowa Hawkeyes : This could be the most interesting game of the game (sorry, Texas and Oklahoma).  The two best defenses in the Big Ten, and the best defenses outside of Cincinnati and Georgia, play each other in a potential preview of the Big Ten title game.  I think Penn State has the better talent, but their offense is still a bit inconsistent.  Worse, it can be tough to come into Iowa City and win, even though we don't to think of Kinnick Stadium as a traditional home field advantage.  I give the slight edge to Iowa, who will likely play mistake-free football this time.  IOWA by two

#4 Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers : The Cornhuskers have improved since their first week loss to Illinois, but their defense is not capable of stopping Michigan.  Can their offense outscore the Wolverines?  I don't think so, but they may keep it close for three quarters.  MICHIGAN by ten

Maryland Terrapins at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes :  Ohio State is another team who has sharpened their play since an opening week loss, and now both their offense and defense are firing at high caliber.  Maryland's offense, on the other hand, has gotten a bit shaky.  OHIO STATE by 14

#8 Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : After a strong non-conference performance, the Scarlet Knights are sputtering in conference play.  This game won't be any different.  MICHIGAN STATE by 12

#25 Oklahoma Sooners vs #10 Texas Longhorns : And now we come to the most highly-touted game of the day!  The 2021 edition of the Red River Rivalry finds the Longhorns coming in strong while the unbeaten Sooners really have not been impressive, barely scraping by with their victories.  Of course, nothing will wake up a team more than an intense rivalry game, so this game may be closer than you might expect.  Still, I have not been impressed by the Sooners' play so far this season, so I think Texas has all the tools to win this one.  TEXAS by six

LSU Tigers at #12 Kentucky Wildcats : The Wildcats take their newly-minted ranking for a stroll against the Tigers.  LSU has not had a good time so far this season.  Their offense has sputtered and their defense is slow.  Neither are conducive elements to produce a victory here.  KENTUCKY by eight

#13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Tech Hokies : The Hokies had an extra week to prepare for the Irish, but the worst thing for them may have been Cincinnati's victory.  After that game, the Irish are burning for a win, and they will do everything they can to beat Virginia Tech.  It may be close at the half, but watch the Irish pull away in the second half.  NOTRE DAME by 13

 #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Syracuse Orange : Would it surprise you to know that the only unbeaten team in the ACC is Wake Forest?  That's true.  The Demon Deacons might be equally surprised, so it becomes an interesting question to see how long they can maintain it, as this is not a normal position for the Demon Deacons to be in.  They should keep that winning streak going here, as Syracuse has not been great this season.  The Orange can surprise, though, so Wake Forest should not get overconfident.  WAKE FOREST by 12

#20 Arkansas Razorbacks at #16 Ole Miss Rebels : The two casualties of playing the top two teams in the country last week now face each other in what could be considered a "consolation" game.  There may be no consoling Arkansas, who were so soundly spanked by Georgia last week.  They desperately want a strong win to help ease the pain of that, but that desperation might be their undoing, as they let their emotions get the best of them.  I predict at least two unsportsmanlike penalties for roughing the passer, and likely a targeting penalty besides.  All of those will help Ole Miss advance.  OLE MISS by nine

#18 SMU Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen : Lost in the commotion over Cincinnati's success is the fact that SMU is unbeaten as well.  Navy is struggling, so SMU will continue that winning streak.  SMU by 13

Boise State Broncos at #19 BYU Cougars : Despite high expectations, the Broncos find themselves staring down at a losing record.  That won't get any better this week, as BYU has a very good team.  BYU by 16

#21 Oregon State Beavers at Washington State Cougars : I've picked two Cougars teams to win, but that stops here.  While the Beavers often lose at least one conference game they should win, I don't see that loss happening here, as the Cougars don't really have much to threaten them with.  They do like to play close games, so they'll keep this one close, too.  OREGON STATE by eight

Big Ten

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini : I was so exciting that Illinois finally won their second game of the season last week.  Unfortunately I don't see a third one coming.  Despite their struggles, the Badgers still have a better team than Illinois, especially on defense.  WISCONSIN by 11

Other Games of Interest

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Libery Flames : Liberty doesn't get much attention, but maybe they should this season.  They have faced some tough competition and come out on top, amassing a 4-1 record.  The Raiders can be tough, but they are having some problems on the line this season.  I see Liberty achieving their first 5-1 record since moving up to FBS.  LIBERTY by 13

UTSA Roadrunners at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : The Hilltoppers are often a tough team to beat at home, but it should be easier to do this year.  Their defense is only a shadow of their typical self, susceptible to the kind of dynamic plays seen by UTSA this season.  UTSA by 15

Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons : Even I have been remiss in highlighting the Cowboys, a "come from nowhere" 4-0 team whose defense has helped support a sputtering offense.  However, a two-point win against hapless UConn last week was not impressive, and now they face the power of the Air Force Academy.  The Cowboys defense won't hold against the Falcons, and that unbeaten record will be a thing of the past.  AIR FORCE by nine

NFL 2021 Week 4 results

 Oh, what an interesting week!  Three unbeatens went down to defeat and three winless teams cracked that hard shell of victory.  We're left with only one unbeaten and two winless teams.  I wonder how long those will last?

Top Teams [Last week's ranking]

1.  Arizona Cardinals (4-0) [3] : The only unbeaten team has a dynamite offense and a strong defense.  Even their special teams squad is making amazing plays!

2.  Buffalo Bills (3-1) [5] : An overwhelming dominant performance this week shows that this team is only getting better every week.

3.  Denver Broncos (3-1) [1] : Their offense hit a brick wall this week, but is the indication of a downward streak or simply overconfidence getting the best of them for one week?

4.  Cleveland Browns (3-1) [9] : They seem to excel beating up on NFC North teams

5.  Carolina Panthers (3-1) [4]

6.  Dallas Cowboys (3-1) [11] : Their offense continues to be a force to fear

7.  Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) [13] : They knocked off Vegas in style, went 2-0 in the division, and took the lead in the hottest division in the league

8.  Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) [12]

9.  Los Angeles Rams (3-1) [2]

10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) [10] : A close win against winless Jacksonville won't move them up this chart

11. New Orleans Saints (2-2) [6] : Letting the Giants come back in the fourth quarter was embarrasing.  Their defense needs to sharpen up

12. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) [16] : They slammed the previous #1 team.  No small feat

Divisional Rankings [Last week's rank]

 1.  AFC West [1] : They are pulling away from the Number Two division, and with the Chiefs seeming to get back on track, the division has just become even stronger

2.  NFC West [2] : A San Francisco slippage is affecting this team's position, and making them ripe for a drop-down

3.  NFC South [3] : Atlanta continues to drag them down

4.  AFC North [4] : Pittsburgh continues to fall

5.  NFC East [5] : Dallas is really the only shining star, but wins by Washington and the Giants this week boost them

6.  AFC East [6] : Buffalo is the only consistently good team

7.  NFC North [7] : The Pack continue to improve, but that's really it

8.  AFC South [8] : No team over .500 and home to the worst team in the league

NCAA Football 2021 Week 5 results

 It was not a good week to be a ranked team in the SEC, as (with the exception of Alabama and Georgia) they were either upset or barely escaped an upset.  As such, there was a lot of movement in the Top 25.

Top 25 [Last week's position]

1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [1]

2.  Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) [2]

3.  Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) [3]

4.  Michigan Wolverines (5-0) [5]

5.  Iowa Hawkeyes (5-0) [6]

6.  Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0) [7] : Their defeat of Notre Dame might be the greatest win in school history

7.  Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [11]

8.  Michigan State Spartans (5-0) [12]

9.  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (5-0) [18] : The collapse of the SEC opens the door for a Top Ten Sun Belt team!

10. Texas Longhorns (4-1) [17]

11. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [8] : Falling to Stanford should have dropped them lower, especially they had essentially won the game with two minutes remaining before getting stupid, but the number of upsets this week saved their ranking.

12. Kentucky Wildcats (5-0) [NR] : Defeating Florida for the first time in decades vaults the unbeaten Wildcats to a hair's-width away from the Top Ten

13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) [9]

14. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-0) [14] : It wasn't a pretty win, but in this week of upsets, a win is a win

15. Florida Gators (3-2) [4]

16. Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) [15] : At least they gave a decent performance against Alabama

17. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [19] : The only ranked SEC team not Alabama or Georgia who avoided losing

18. SMU Mustangs (5-0) [NR]

19. BYU Cougars (5-0) [26]

20. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) [10] : Georgia's defense completely shut down their offense.  Perhaps Arkansas isn't ready for the big time

21. Oregon State Beavers (4-1) [21]

22. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1) [NR] : They knock off UCLA and ascend to the Top 25

23. NC State Wolfpack (4-1) [23]

24. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) [16]

25. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) [NR]

On the Edge: Houston Cougars (4-1), Army Black Knights (4-1), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1), Air Force Falcons (4-1), UTSA Roadrunners (4-0), Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0), Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-1), Pittsburgh Panthers (4-1)

Dropped off: Rutgers Scarlet Knights [#13], Baylor Bears [#20], UCLA Bruins [#22], Fresno State Bulldogs [#24], Boston College Eagles [#25]

Big Ten Report

In a week with plenty of upsets, the Big Ten performed pretty much as expected.  The only upset was Nebraska blanking Northwestern.  We also expected Rutgers to do better than they did.  The Buckeyes defense seems to have ironed out their early season woes, which now makes them the second most dangerous team in the conference, behind Iowa (Penn State's offense still needs work).

Upset Report

Truthfully, in a week where several ranked teams lost, not all can be labeled as upsets.  After all, I don't think anybody expected Ole Miss or Arkansas to beat Alabama or Georgia, but we certainly did not Arkansas to get shut out.  Other upsets were toss-up games, as their opponents were not that bad.  However, we still had some surprises.

Let's start in the SEC.  Kentucky's defeat of Florida certainly ranks as an upset, perhaps the biggest surprise of the weekend (since many people thought Cincy had a chance against Notre Dame).  The Wildcats defense just frustrated Florida, and the Gators suffered enough injuries to make future success harder.

The Aggies didn't escape an upset.  A late score makes the game look more competitive than it was.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs basically controlled that game, and gave the Aggies their second loss.

We now move our attention to the west coast.  Obviously the biggest upset in that region was Stanford's defeat of Oregon.  Now, the national media had overhyped Oregon, so I knew a loss was forthcoming, but it really shouldn't have occurred this week.  Oregon had the game won, although Stanford had led for much of the game, late in the fourth quarter.  Then, two stupid penalties and bad tackling put Stanford right back into it, and then the Cardinal prevailed in overtime when Oregon attempted a very ill-advised pass play.

The state of California was home to another Pac-12 upset Saturday, as struggling Washington State completely wiped out the Cal Golden Bears.  Then, at the end of the night, the state of California hosted yet another upset.  While I figured Arizona State might win this game, their utter dominance of UCLA was a shock.

For our last upsets, we return to the region of the country covered by the SEC, Tennessee and Alabama.  Middle Tennessee soundly thrashed the Marshall Thundering Herd, and Liberty beat UAB, advancing Liberty to a 4-1 record and garnering some attention in my computer-generated rankings.