What a fabulous weekend! Playoff eligible teams in the NFC won, ending up making the seedings look just like last week. The Texans continued their late season collapse and fell from top seed to Number Three.
I'll rank the twelve playoff teams, and then include the top non-playoff teams to round out this week's power rankings.
Playoff Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (13-3) [1] : The top seed in the AFC got there on the strength of an 11-game winning streak. Peyton Manning has adjusted to the new team and new scheme,. and he is as dangerous as ever.
2. New England Patriots (12-4) [3] : The AFC's second seed has the most potent offense in the league, and their defense isn't half bad. They proved that with a final week shutout.
3. Atlanta Falcons (13-3) [2] : The NFC's top seed lost two of their last five games, and struggled against the Bucs. Their chances to reach the Super Bowl depend upon how well they turn things around during their bye week.
4. Seattle Seahawks (11-5) [6] : They may be a wildcard, but they showed more fire these past few weeks than any other NFC team. They will be dangerous, despite a poor road record.
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) [7] : I'm sure they're happy St Louis isn't in the playoffs! Their defense came alive in the last couple of weeks, so they are entering the playoffs on a high note.
6. Green Bay Packers (11-5) [4] : They didn't give Adrian Peterson the rushing record (although a couple of their defenders insinuated they would), but they gave him too much of a cushion. Or perhaps they just wanted the Bears to be eliminated. Whatever, they failed to get the bye week they sorely needed, so now their sore bodies must battle on Saturday.
7. Houston Texans (12-4) [5] : They fell from first seed to third seed in one week. That is an indication that they collapsed. They also have a losing record in the month leading up to the playoffs.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) [10] : Once thought to be a longshot for the playoffs, the Bengals stiffened up in the latter portion of the season.
9. Washington Redskins (10-6) [11] : Their 7-game winning streak is the best in the NFC, and second only to Denver's among the playoff teams.
10. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) [9] : How far has Baltimore fallen? They have the worst record of any playoff team throughout December (1-4) and are decimated with injuries.
11. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) [12] : They outplayed Green Bay, and Christian Ponder has been a stellar leader the past two weeks.
12. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) [13] : I'd place them higher, but their negative point differential still concerns me. They find ways to win, though, and could advance.
Best of the rest [Last week's position]
13. Chicago Bears (10-6) [8] : Still the most dangerous defense in the league, and the return of Earl Bennett gave them another receiving threat.
14. New York Giants (9-7) [14] : They were inconsistent, but their dominating performance against Philly showed that they still have the right stuff
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) [17] : They had some trouble, but they can still put together a strong game
16. New Orleans Saints (7-9) [16] : Defense still needs some work, but if they had started the year better, they might have been in the playoffs
Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : They commanded most of the year, and finished as the only division with three teams who won at least ten games. Defense and a strong running game were the game plan in Chicago and Minnesota, while strong passing attacks and designed coverages were the stalwarts in Green Bay and Detroit. Despite a poor record, Detroit was a tough competitor. If their two playoff teams didn't have to face off in the first round, they could have both reached the NFC title game.
2. NFC South [2] : Despite contributing only one playoff team, they are the only division without a team who suffered losses of ten game or more. Their teams may not have been consistent, but they all had flashes of brilliance.
3. AFC North [3] : Like the NFC North, they have only one team with a losing record, and for a while their top three dominated the AFC
4. NFC West [4] : Two playoff teams, each with eleven wins, and a surprisingly competitive Rams team late in the season
5. NFC East [5] : Home of parity, three teams had a shot at the division title until the final week. Dallas was an early power, and the Giants could often threaten at points of games. Dallas was also a dangerous 4th quarter team this season who you could rarely discount.
6. AFC East [6] : The Jets offense was deplorable, but Miami and Buffalo show promise -- they just need to show it more consistently.
7. AFC South [7] : The presence of two playoff teams is offset by the dismal performances of Tennessee and Jacksonville, the latter which gets the first pick in the draft.
8. AFC West [8] : Denver could have still won with an 8-8 record (although they did much better than that), which shows how bad the rest of the division is.
Playoffs -- First round
We have some strong wildcards this season. I am tempted to pick ALL of the wildcards this week, but I'll hold back on that exuberance, as that has only happened once before.
Saturday games:
Cincinnati Bengals (#6 seed) at Houston Texans (#3) : The AFC Wildcards have definitely outplayed their playoff opponents over the past month. Cincy still has some issues, but Houston has been playing BENEATH themselves for weeks. It almost seems like they don't believe in themselves, an issue that will cause problems in the high-stress playoff environment. Matt Schaub has gone from being one of the league's most accurate passers to a mediocre one, while Andy Dalton has gained some of his rhythm. I like the momentum the Bengals have established coming into the playoffs, and I think Houston's two-game losing streak is a terrible prelude to the playoffs. BENGALS, 24-17
Minnesota Vikings (#6) at Green Bay Packers (#3) : In their two previous match-ups, Adrian Peterson has rushed for over 400 yards. Christian Ponder is getting better, and the Vikings are on a strong four game winning streak. They seem the logical choice to win the game, especially considering the number of injured players on the Packers. However, this weekend's game proved tough for some of the Vikings, and they may be nearly as banged up as the Packers. Green Bay was coming on later in the game. While the hostile confines of Lambeau Field is not a detriment to the Vikings, I think the Pack will benefit some from the home crowd, at least to squeeze past the Vikings. PACKERS, 26-24
Sunday games:
Indianapolis Colts (#5) at Baltimore Ravens (#4) : The Ravens have been utterly atrocious in December! While some of their woes can be attributed to injuries, that doesn't seem to cover it completely. The Colts, on the other hand, have been rejuvenated by the healthy return of their coach. The Colts don't win by much, but they do find ways to win. COLTS, 27-24
Seattle Seahawks (#5) at Washington Redskins (#4) : This could be the most intriguing of all of the first round playoff games. Both teams have been strong in the latter part of the season. Washington comes in on a seven-game winning streak, Seattle on a five-game streak. Both have a sturdy with a dynamic offense. Both rookie quarterbacks (RGIII and Russell Wilson) are dangerous by either passing or scrambling, although Wilson's arm seems a bit stronger while Griffin is normally a bit faster. I said "normally" because he was hampered with an injured knee on Sunday, and that may be the difference in the game. Dallas didn't key on that enough, but it was obviously that Griffin's mobility was reduced. Trust Pete Carroll to zero in on that, and let the dynamic Seahawks offense, which has been the most powerful of any in December, force Griffin to have to keep moving. SEAHAWKS, 34-27
Monday, December 31, 2012
Friday, December 28, 2012
NCAA 2012-13 Final bowl picks
It has been an interesting start to the bowl season. As I type this, Baylor is slaughtering UCLA in the Holiday Bowl. Underdogs did well in the early bowls, which is not uncommon. Two Top 25 teams will definitely tumble, but season-long contenders also fell in their bowl games. Right now, Baylor and UCF seem poised to replace UCLA and Fresno State, but it's still too early to tell. After a shaky 4-4 start, I should sweep the Dec 27th bowls. That should propel me well into the final slate of games.
Music City Bowl, sponsored by Franklin American Mortgage - Dec 31, Nashville, TN
NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) : Many of the fans will be Tennessee fans, but they'll switch to rooting for Vandy. I don't know if the favorable crowd will help much, but the Vandy defense will. The Commodores held nearly all of their foes to less than 24 points (only Georgia, Florida, and Ole Miss scored more), while the Wolfpack struggled in a weakened ACC this season. Vandy doesn't get to bowls often, but they'll make this visit count. VANDERBILT by six
Sun Bowl, sponsored by Hyundai - Dec 31, El Paso, TX
#24 USC Trojans (7-5) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) : I don't think teams with losing records should be in bowl games, especially when they represented their division solely because of teams on probation. As such, I am picking USC just because I don't want Tech winning. However, the Trojans will play without Matt Barkely, os they won't score too much. USC by six
Liberty Bowl, sponsored by AutoZone - Dec 31, Memphis, TN
Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) v Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) : Iowa State was a plucky team, but Tulsa was a very powerful team. They lost some steam near the end of the season, but overtook UCF in overtime to capture the Conference USA title. That amount of spunk deserves respect. TULSA by 16
Georgia Bowl, sponsored by Chick-fil-A - Dec 31, Atlanta, GA
While I doubt Chick-fil-A will be pulling their sponsorship anytime soon, if they keep making questionable PR maneuvers to push their political agenda, the NCAA may not allow them to sponsor a bowl. Taking a name used for only one year for this bowl, we'll see if Chick-fil-A can toe the line.
#10 LSU Tigers (10-2) v #13 Clemson Tigers (10-2) : This battle of the Tigers is the first bowl game to match two Top 25 teams. LSU is used to New Years or BCS bowls, so this one is almost an insult. If the players don't let that resentment affect their playing, they ought to beat Clemson. Clemson dominated many of their opponents, but they couldn't overcome SEC opponent South Carolina. LSU is tougher. LSU by 12
Gator Bowl, sponsored by TaxSlayer.com - Jan 1, Jacksonville, FL
Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) : None of the Big Ten teams are favored, but this is the closest line. While the Big Ten once again drew tough opponents (further proof that the bowl organizers like HAVING Big Ten teams, as they draw the attendance numbers, they won't want the Big Ten to WIN), this game looks favorable. The Bulldogs are bowl neophytes, while the Wildcats understand the necessary preparation. I also think the Bulldogs will believe the "unbeatable SEC" talk that the conference loves to spout, so I don't think they will adequately prepare for the Wildcats. NORTHWESTERN by six
Dallas Bowl, sponsored by the Dallas tourism board - Jan 1, Dallas, TX
Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) : On the other hand, this game won't be pretty. Purdue was too sporadic, while the Cowboys have a sold offense. The Cowboys will take an early lead and never trail, despite some heroics in the fourth quarter by Purdue. OKLAHOMA STATE by 23
Outback Bowl, sponsored by Outback Steakhouses - Jan 1, Tampa, FL
Okay, why keep THIS sponsor name? First of all, it is the longest running bowl game that has NEVER had another name, and I don't think Outback is going away. This history deserves recognition.
#12 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) v #23 Michigan Wolverines (8-4) : The Big Ten has often done well in this bowl, so the Gamecocks should watch out! Truthfully, I think Steve Spurrier has too many tools to lose this game, and he will adequately prepare for Michigan. However, the Wolverines have done some tricky things under Brady Hoke, so they'll keep the game close and interesting. SOUTH CAROLINA by nine
Capital One Bowl, sponsored by Capital One - Jan 1, Orlando, FL
Capital One is firmly enmeshed in college football, so their sponsorship won't disappear. Formerly the Tangerine Bowl and Florida Citrus Bowl, another bowl game was created when Capital One removed the fruit portion of the bowl's name, so this is uniquely the Capital One Bowl.
#5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) v Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) : Nebraska spent some time in the Top 25, but they were embarrassed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Georgia played in the SEC Championship Game, but couldn't withstand a late Alabama drive. Still, Georgia was a strong team who toughened themselves after a shocking loss to South Carolina. They are the most dangerous team not playing in the BCS title game. GEORGIA by 20
Rose Bowl, presented by Vizio - Jan 1, Pasadena, CA
Wisconsin Badgers (8-5) v #11 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) : Wisconsin found life at the end of the season, and Monte Ball found some yardage. The Badgers have kept each of the last two Rose Bowls close, but they lost both of those. I'm afraid this year will be a repeat performance. The Badgers ground game will be tougher with Barry Alvarez back on the sidelines, and Barry will create some innovative plays that Stanford won't expect, but the Cardinal is just the better team. STANFORD by four
Orange Bowl, sponsored by Discover Card - Jan 1, Miami, FL
#15 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) v #9 Florida State Seminoles (11-2) : I'm going for the upset here. Florida State has a lousy bowl record over the past decade, and nobody is taking Northern Illinois very seriously. However, I think the Huskies will come out strongly against Florida State, overpowering their defense. That will anger them, inspiring a series of penalties against the Seminole defense. Once Florida State falls 14 points behind, they will force some plays, opening up the Huskies to capture a couple of turnovers. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 24
Sugar Bowl, sponsored by Allstate - Jan 2, New Orleans, LA
Louisville Cardinals (10-2) v #7 Florida Gators (11-1) : We know this was set up for the BCS #3 to have a strong win. Now Bill Muschamp is hoping that Alabama and Notre Dame play a close game so that he can claim that Florida should be considered the top team. No dice. I recognize a set-up when I see one, and arranging to play a patsy doesn't gain any respect from me. FLORIDA by too much
Fiesta Bowl, sponsored by Tostitos - Jan 3, Glendale, AZ
#11 Oregon Ducks (11-1) v #6 Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) : The Wildcats are ranked higher, but I'm going for the upset here, too. Collin Klein looked good, but that's only because the offense could set their own pace due to a strong defense. Oregon can score so quickly, and outrun any defense, that the Wildcats will find themselves in a rare position - behind. Klein doesn't operate so well in that situation. OREGON by 18
Cotton Bowl, sponsored by AT&T - Jan 4, Arlington, TX
#8 Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) v #14 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) : Johnny Football should produce plenty of highlights to show on Cowboys Stadium's Jumbotron. While surrounding himself with family and old friends might help inspire the young Heismann Trophy winner, that's not the main reason that the Aggies will win. They have a dynamic offense that can produce big plays in a number of sets and plays. The Sooners defense is good, but they will not be able to figure out everything that Texas A&M does, and that gives the Aggies the edge. TEXAS A&M by 12
Birmingham Bowl, sponsored by BBVA Compass - Jan 5, Birmingham, AL
This newcomer to bowl sponsorship has an uncertain future; this might be the next bowl in need of a new sponsor. Time to give it a stable name, like the place where it is played.
Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) v Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) : The game is played in the south, and the SEC is the stronger conference than the Big East. So, clearly, Ole Miss should win this game, right? Well, not so fast. Pitt may not have won too many games, but they were close in most of them. They should have beaten Notre Dame, if not for a blown call by the officials. Ole Miss struggled in the SEC, who actually didn't have the amount of power, from top to bottom in the conference, that they often have. I have to give a surprise boost to the Panthers. PITT by six
Alabama Bowl, sponsored by GoDaddy.com - Jan 6, Mobile, AL
GoDaddy seems a stable sports sponsor (so long as NASCAR doesn't collapse), but even Insight.com realized the foolishness of having ".com" in the name of a bowl, especially when most people watch it on TV, not the Internet.
#21 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) : The Sun Belt Conference has done very well in bowls in recent years, but the top MAC teams were a real force this season. While the Red Wolves will make this a tight contest, I have to give the nod to Kent State. KENT STATE by six
BCS National Championship, sponsored by Discover Card - Jan 7, Miami, FL
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) : Repeats have been hard since the BCS National Championship Game was established; only USC could do it. Nick Saban has created a team similar to those Pete Carroll Trojan teams, so he has a chance. Notre Dame has a staggeringly stiff defense, and an offense that was improving in the second half of the season. Alabama also has a crushing defense, even if teams like Texas A&M and Georgia found ways to score. In each of those games, the offense was lackluster in the first half, but found life in the second half. That may be Notre Dame's undoing. If they go into the halftime locker room ahead by ten points, they may believe the title is theirs. Alabama is more dangerous in the second half, and an overconfident Irish team could be fodder. Either team could win, but I somehow see a 'Bama comeback in the works. ALABAMA by two
Music City Bowl, sponsored by Franklin American Mortgage - Dec 31, Nashville, TN
NC State Wolfpack (7-5) v Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4) : Many of the fans will be Tennessee fans, but they'll switch to rooting for Vandy. I don't know if the favorable crowd will help much, but the Vandy defense will. The Commodores held nearly all of their foes to less than 24 points (only Georgia, Florida, and Ole Miss scored more), while the Wolfpack struggled in a weakened ACC this season. Vandy doesn't get to bowls often, but they'll make this visit count. VANDERBILT by six
Sun Bowl, sponsored by Hyundai - Dec 31, El Paso, TX
#24 USC Trojans (7-5) v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7) : I don't think teams with losing records should be in bowl games, especially when they represented their division solely because of teams on probation. As such, I am picking USC just because I don't want Tech winning. However, the Trojans will play without Matt Barkely, os they won't score too much. USC by six
Liberty Bowl, sponsored by AutoZone - Dec 31, Memphis, TN
Iowa State Cyclones (6-6) v Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3) : Iowa State was a plucky team, but Tulsa was a very powerful team. They lost some steam near the end of the season, but overtook UCF in overtime to capture the Conference USA title. That amount of spunk deserves respect. TULSA by 16
Georgia Bowl, sponsored by Chick-fil-A - Dec 31, Atlanta, GA
While I doubt Chick-fil-A will be pulling their sponsorship anytime soon, if they keep making questionable PR maneuvers to push their political agenda, the NCAA may not allow them to sponsor a bowl. Taking a name used for only one year for this bowl, we'll see if Chick-fil-A can toe the line.
#10 LSU Tigers (10-2) v #13 Clemson Tigers (10-2) : This battle of the Tigers is the first bowl game to match two Top 25 teams. LSU is used to New Years or BCS bowls, so this one is almost an insult. If the players don't let that resentment affect their playing, they ought to beat Clemson. Clemson dominated many of their opponents, but they couldn't overcome SEC opponent South Carolina. LSU is tougher. LSU by 12
Gator Bowl, sponsored by TaxSlayer.com - Jan 1, Jacksonville, FL
Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) v Northwestern Wildcats (9-3) : None of the Big Ten teams are favored, but this is the closest line. While the Big Ten once again drew tough opponents (further proof that the bowl organizers like HAVING Big Ten teams, as they draw the attendance numbers, they won't want the Big Ten to WIN), this game looks favorable. The Bulldogs are bowl neophytes, while the Wildcats understand the necessary preparation. I also think the Bulldogs will believe the "unbeatable SEC" talk that the conference loves to spout, so I don't think they will adequately prepare for the Wildcats. NORTHWESTERN by six
Dallas Bowl, sponsored by the Dallas tourism board - Jan 1, Dallas, TX
Purdue Boilermakers (6-6) v Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) : On the other hand, this game won't be pretty. Purdue was too sporadic, while the Cowboys have a sold offense. The Cowboys will take an early lead and never trail, despite some heroics in the fourth quarter by Purdue. OKLAHOMA STATE by 23
Outback Bowl, sponsored by Outback Steakhouses - Jan 1, Tampa, FL
Okay, why keep THIS sponsor name? First of all, it is the longest running bowl game that has NEVER had another name, and I don't think Outback is going away. This history deserves recognition.
#12 South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) v #23 Michigan Wolverines (8-4) : The Big Ten has often done well in this bowl, so the Gamecocks should watch out! Truthfully, I think Steve Spurrier has too many tools to lose this game, and he will adequately prepare for Michigan. However, the Wolverines have done some tricky things under Brady Hoke, so they'll keep the game close and interesting. SOUTH CAROLINA by nine
Capital One Bowl, sponsored by Capital One - Jan 1, Orlando, FL
Capital One is firmly enmeshed in college football, so their sponsorship won't disappear. Formerly the Tangerine Bowl and Florida Citrus Bowl, another bowl game was created when Capital One removed the fruit portion of the bowl's name, so this is uniquely the Capital One Bowl.
#5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) v Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) : Nebraska spent some time in the Top 25, but they were embarrassed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Georgia played in the SEC Championship Game, but couldn't withstand a late Alabama drive. Still, Georgia was a strong team who toughened themselves after a shocking loss to South Carolina. They are the most dangerous team not playing in the BCS title game. GEORGIA by 20
Rose Bowl, presented by Vizio - Jan 1, Pasadena, CA
Wisconsin Badgers (8-5) v #11 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) : Wisconsin found life at the end of the season, and Monte Ball found some yardage. The Badgers have kept each of the last two Rose Bowls close, but they lost both of those. I'm afraid this year will be a repeat performance. The Badgers ground game will be tougher with Barry Alvarez back on the sidelines, and Barry will create some innovative plays that Stanford won't expect, but the Cardinal is just the better team. STANFORD by four
Orange Bowl, sponsored by Discover Card - Jan 1, Miami, FL
#15 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) v #9 Florida State Seminoles (11-2) : I'm going for the upset here. Florida State has a lousy bowl record over the past decade, and nobody is taking Northern Illinois very seriously. However, I think the Huskies will come out strongly against Florida State, overpowering their defense. That will anger them, inspiring a series of penalties against the Seminole defense. Once Florida State falls 14 points behind, they will force some plays, opening up the Huskies to capture a couple of turnovers. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 24
Sugar Bowl, sponsored by Allstate - Jan 2, New Orleans, LA
Louisville Cardinals (10-2) v #7 Florida Gators (11-1) : We know this was set up for the BCS #3 to have a strong win. Now Bill Muschamp is hoping that Alabama and Notre Dame play a close game so that he can claim that Florida should be considered the top team. No dice. I recognize a set-up when I see one, and arranging to play a patsy doesn't gain any respect from me. FLORIDA by too much
Fiesta Bowl, sponsored by Tostitos - Jan 3, Glendale, AZ
#11 Oregon Ducks (11-1) v #6 Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) : The Wildcats are ranked higher, but I'm going for the upset here, too. Collin Klein looked good, but that's only because the offense could set their own pace due to a strong defense. Oregon can score so quickly, and outrun any defense, that the Wildcats will find themselves in a rare position - behind. Klein doesn't operate so well in that situation. OREGON by 18
Cotton Bowl, sponsored by AT&T - Jan 4, Arlington, TX
#8 Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) v #14 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) : Johnny Football should produce plenty of highlights to show on Cowboys Stadium's Jumbotron. While surrounding himself with family and old friends might help inspire the young Heismann Trophy winner, that's not the main reason that the Aggies will win. They have a dynamic offense that can produce big plays in a number of sets and plays. The Sooners defense is good, but they will not be able to figure out everything that Texas A&M does, and that gives the Aggies the edge. TEXAS A&M by 12
Birmingham Bowl, sponsored by BBVA Compass - Jan 5, Birmingham, AL
This newcomer to bowl sponsorship has an uncertain future; this might be the next bowl in need of a new sponsor. Time to give it a stable name, like the place where it is played.
Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) v Ole Miss Rebels (6-6) : The game is played in the south, and the SEC is the stronger conference than the Big East. So, clearly, Ole Miss should win this game, right? Well, not so fast. Pitt may not have won too many games, but they were close in most of them. They should have beaten Notre Dame, if not for a blown call by the officials. Ole Miss struggled in the SEC, who actually didn't have the amount of power, from top to bottom in the conference, that they often have. I have to give a surprise boost to the Panthers. PITT by six
Alabama Bowl, sponsored by GoDaddy.com - Jan 6, Mobile, AL
GoDaddy seems a stable sports sponsor (so long as NASCAR doesn't collapse), but even Insight.com realized the foolishness of having ".com" in the name of a bowl, especially when most people watch it on TV, not the Internet.
#21 Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) v Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) : The Sun Belt Conference has done very well in bowls in recent years, but the top MAC teams were a real force this season. While the Red Wolves will make this a tight contest, I have to give the nod to Kent State. KENT STATE by six
BCS National Championship, sponsored by Discover Card - Jan 7, Miami, FL
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) v #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) : Repeats have been hard since the BCS National Championship Game was established; only USC could do it. Nick Saban has created a team similar to those Pete Carroll Trojan teams, so he has a chance. Notre Dame has a staggeringly stiff defense, and an offense that was improving in the second half of the season. Alabama also has a crushing defense, even if teams like Texas A&M and Georgia found ways to score. In each of those games, the offense was lackluster in the first half, but found life in the second half. That may be Notre Dame's undoing. If they go into the halftime locker room ahead by ten points, they may believe the title is theirs. Alabama is more dangerous in the second half, and an overconfident Irish team could be fodder. Either team could win, but I somehow see a 'Bama comeback in the works. ALABAMA by two
Thursday, December 27, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 17 picks
Wow! Even MORE road teams won last week than I expected. It was quite a week for the road teams, and this week looks to be quite a week for the home teams. Playoff seeds are still up for grabs in the NFC (and a few in the AFC), so the likelihood of teams resting up this week in preparation for the playoffs is small. I'll mention the few possibilities as I pick the games.
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy already has the sixth seed, but they won't rest. A victory over their divisional rival would be a great way to enter the playoffs, as would the three-game winning streak that would result. The Ravens are more likely to relax, as they cannot make a first round bye, so they might spend this week resting players who need it. That makes it even more likely that the Bengals will win. BENGALS, 26-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Neither team is going to the playoffs, so they are playing for ending the season on a positive note. Both have winning records coming into this game, but the Saints want to win more, as they can even their record at 8-8 with a win. Carolina will score, as the Saints defense is porous, but I don't think the Panthers defense can slow a determined Drew Brees. SAINTS, 31-24
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: The Lions would love to spoil the Bears' playoff chances, as they are out of contention if they lose. However, I don't think they'll beat the Bears. Calvin Johnson is most of the Lions offense; he catches more than 50% of the passes and they don't have a reliable running game to fall back upon. All the Bears defense has to do is double-team Johnson and they spoil the Lions offense. So long as the Bears offense doesn't turn the ball over in great field position, this game should be a win for the Bears, who will then turn into Packers fans, rooting for the Vikings loss that clinches the sixth NFC seed. BEARS, 27-17
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh would love to prevent a losing record. They need to win here to reach 8-8. The Browns are dangerous, and they will keep this game close, but I like the Steelers' chances to salvage their season. STEELERS, 23-20
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: This could be the most exciting game of the day! The Texans need a win to gain home field advantage in the playoffs, and a loss could drop them to the third seed and cost them a bye week. The Colts are already the fifth seed, but they won't slow down. They want this game, and they may get it. Their head coach will be on the sidelines coaching for the first time since he was diagnosed with leukemia in Sept. His cancer is in remission and the Colts want to win for their beloved coach. Given the sporadic play of the Texans recently, I don't see how the Texans will overcome the emotional drive of the Colts. COLTS, 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: The Jags travel to Tennessee without their running back, which means the offense is firmly in the hands of Chad Henne. It would seem to be foolish to pick the Jags, except the Titans have been unable to accomplish anything against divisional opponents this season. After a great start, Henne has been poor, but he knows this is his last hurrah. The Jags are in line to acquire Tim Tebow, and he will assume backup duties to Blaine Gabbert. Henne needs a good game to attract attention of another team. He'll play above himself and push the Jags to a surprising victory. JAGUARS, 23-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Neither team is playoff bound, so this game is only for morale. The Jets' is at an all-time low, as both Sanchez and Tebow know they will be shown the door when the season is over. The Jets offense isn't accomplishing anything, and the defense hasn't been stepping up. Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the Bills, and he will do that. The Bills defense is atrocious, so the Jets offense might show some life this game, but it won't be enough. BILLS, 24-20
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Michael Vick returns to the Eagles for this game. Will that spur a win? It might, but I think the Giants will win this game. The Giants have been a much better team at home than on the road, and the extremely slim playoff hopes of the Giants depend upon a victory. Vick will make that hard, though, as I think he will engineer a fourth quarter comeback that will nearly snatch victory from the Giants' grasp. GIANTS, 26-24
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons: If any team might relax, it would be the Falcons. They have clinched the top NFC seed, so why bother? Because the Falcons need to erase the image that they fold in playoff and late season games. If the Falcons get a ten-point or better lead in the fourth quarter, I expect them to rest key players, but those players will start the game. FALCONS, 27-21
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Perhaps the only team with a worse situation at quarterback than the Jets is the Arizona Cardinals, who will start Brian Hoyer. This is the first start for Hoyer in his four seasons, where he previously saw action for the Pats before stepping in for a struggling Ryan Lindley last week. The 49ers need a win to capture the NFC West title, and they should have little trouble getting it. 49ERS, 27-17
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: This game has more playoff drama than any other game this week. Both teams need the win; for the Vikings, they may need it to clinch a wildcard spot (a Lions upset would reduce that pressure), while the Pack can clinch a playoff bye with a win. The Packers have plenty of injured players, and would love that bye week to get healthy. They will key off Adrian Peterson, who needs more than 200 rushing yards to beat Eric Dickerson's single season record. With Peterson a target, that means Christian Ponder must have another fabulous game like he had last week. I'm not sure he has two consecutive games like that in him. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers will be airing it out, and he has enough targets (even with an injury-crippled receiving corps) to stretch the Vikings defense. PACKERS, 28-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: The Broncos will know whether they have a shot at home field advantage, as the result of the Texans-Colts game will be pretty well known by the start of the game. If Houston loses, will the Broncos slack off, as they will already have a bye week? No, because they know if the Pats win and the Broncos lose, New England captures home field advantage, and Peyton Manning does not want to face Tom Brady in Foxboro. The Broncos could probably win this game even if they coast, but they will demolish KC to capture a sure bye week, and possibly home field advantage. BRONCOS, 31-13
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: If Houston loses, the Pats could get a bye week with a win. Even if Houston wins, a Broncos loss would give them a bye week. The Pats are likely to battle hard unless a bye week if gone, which would mean a Texans win and a large Broncos lead at halftime. By that time, the Pats may have established too large a lead for Miami to overcome. PATRIOTS, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been poor at home, but the Raiders have been even more pathetic on the road. Like Arizona, the Raiders are also facing some bleak quarterback choices. With Carson Palmer out, they have to choose between washout Matt Leinhart or inexperienced Terrelle Pryor. I don't think either will propel them past San Diego, but Pryor ability to scramble would add a new dimension to their offense. CHARGERS, 27-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks already have clinched the playoffs, but they want the division title. They need Arizona to shock San Fran, but Russell Wilson and company will be driving. I think Wilson will also be annoyed by the Pro Bowl snub, and generate lots of yards to show the voters why he should have been considered. SEAHAWKS, 31-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: This game will decide the last divisional title, and I believe both teams know it is "win or go home". While many national analysts are picking Dallas, I just don't see it. RGIII and Coach Shanahan have the Redskins on a six-game winning streak, and they have the strength and talent to make that seven. REDSKINS, 28-23
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy already has the sixth seed, but they won't rest. A victory over their divisional rival would be a great way to enter the playoffs, as would the three-game winning streak that would result. The Ravens are more likely to relax, as they cannot make a first round bye, so they might spend this week resting players who need it. That makes it even more likely that the Bengals will win. BENGALS, 26-20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: Neither team is going to the playoffs, so they are playing for ending the season on a positive note. Both have winning records coming into this game, but the Saints want to win more, as they can even their record at 8-8 with a win. Carolina will score, as the Saints defense is porous, but I don't think the Panthers defense can slow a determined Drew Brees. SAINTS, 31-24
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: The Lions would love to spoil the Bears' playoff chances, as they are out of contention if they lose. However, I don't think they'll beat the Bears. Calvin Johnson is most of the Lions offense; he catches more than 50% of the passes and they don't have a reliable running game to fall back upon. All the Bears defense has to do is double-team Johnson and they spoil the Lions offense. So long as the Bears offense doesn't turn the ball over in great field position, this game should be a win for the Bears, who will then turn into Packers fans, rooting for the Vikings loss that clinches the sixth NFC seed. BEARS, 27-17
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh would love to prevent a losing record. They need to win here to reach 8-8. The Browns are dangerous, and they will keep this game close, but I like the Steelers' chances to salvage their season. STEELERS, 23-20
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: This could be the most exciting game of the day! The Texans need a win to gain home field advantage in the playoffs, and a loss could drop them to the third seed and cost them a bye week. The Colts are already the fifth seed, but they won't slow down. They want this game, and they may get it. Their head coach will be on the sidelines coaching for the first time since he was diagnosed with leukemia in Sept. His cancer is in remission and the Colts want to win for their beloved coach. Given the sporadic play of the Texans recently, I don't see how the Texans will overcome the emotional drive of the Colts. COLTS, 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: The Jags travel to Tennessee without their running back, which means the offense is firmly in the hands of Chad Henne. It would seem to be foolish to pick the Jags, except the Titans have been unable to accomplish anything against divisional opponents this season. After a great start, Henne has been poor, but he knows this is his last hurrah. The Jags are in line to acquire Tim Tebow, and he will assume backup duties to Blaine Gabbert. Henne needs a good game to attract attention of another team. He'll play above himself and push the Jags to a surprising victory. JAGUARS, 23-20
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Neither team is playoff bound, so this game is only for morale. The Jets' is at an all-time low, as both Sanchez and Tebow know they will be shown the door when the season is over. The Jets offense isn't accomplishing anything, and the defense hasn't been stepping up. Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the Bills, and he will do that. The Bills defense is atrocious, so the Jets offense might show some life this game, but it won't be enough. BILLS, 24-20
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Michael Vick returns to the Eagles for this game. Will that spur a win? It might, but I think the Giants will win this game. The Giants have been a much better team at home than on the road, and the extremely slim playoff hopes of the Giants depend upon a victory. Vick will make that hard, though, as I think he will engineer a fourth quarter comeback that will nearly snatch victory from the Giants' grasp. GIANTS, 26-24
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons: If any team might relax, it would be the Falcons. They have clinched the top NFC seed, so why bother? Because the Falcons need to erase the image that they fold in playoff and late season games. If the Falcons get a ten-point or better lead in the fourth quarter, I expect them to rest key players, but those players will start the game. FALCONS, 27-21
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Perhaps the only team with a worse situation at quarterback than the Jets is the Arizona Cardinals, who will start Brian Hoyer. This is the first start for Hoyer in his four seasons, where he previously saw action for the Pats before stepping in for a struggling Ryan Lindley last week. The 49ers need a win to capture the NFC West title, and they should have little trouble getting it. 49ERS, 27-17
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: This game has more playoff drama than any other game this week. Both teams need the win; for the Vikings, they may need it to clinch a wildcard spot (a Lions upset would reduce that pressure), while the Pack can clinch a playoff bye with a win. The Packers have plenty of injured players, and would love that bye week to get healthy. They will key off Adrian Peterson, who needs more than 200 rushing yards to beat Eric Dickerson's single season record. With Peterson a target, that means Christian Ponder must have another fabulous game like he had last week. I'm not sure he has two consecutive games like that in him. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers will be airing it out, and he has enough targets (even with an injury-crippled receiving corps) to stretch the Vikings defense. PACKERS, 28-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: The Broncos will know whether they have a shot at home field advantage, as the result of the Texans-Colts game will be pretty well known by the start of the game. If Houston loses, will the Broncos slack off, as they will already have a bye week? No, because they know if the Pats win and the Broncos lose, New England captures home field advantage, and Peyton Manning does not want to face Tom Brady in Foxboro. The Broncos could probably win this game even if they coast, but they will demolish KC to capture a sure bye week, and possibly home field advantage. BRONCOS, 31-13
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: If Houston loses, the Pats could get a bye week with a win. Even if Houston wins, a Broncos loss would give them a bye week. The Pats are likely to battle hard unless a bye week if gone, which would mean a Texans win and a large Broncos lead at halftime. By that time, the Pats may have established too large a lead for Miami to overcome. PATRIOTS, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been poor at home, but the Raiders have been even more pathetic on the road. Like Arizona, the Raiders are also facing some bleak quarterback choices. With Carson Palmer out, they have to choose between washout Matt Leinhart or inexperienced Terrelle Pryor. I don't think either will propel them past San Diego, but Pryor ability to scramble would add a new dimension to their offense. CHARGERS, 27-17
St Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks already have clinched the playoffs, but they want the division title. They need Arizona to shock San Fran, but Russell Wilson and company will be driving. I think Wilson will also be annoyed by the Pro Bowl snub, and generate lots of yards to show the voters why he should have been considered. SEAHAWKS, 31-16
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: This game will decide the last divisional title, and I believe both teams know it is "win or go home". While many national analysts are picking Dallas, I just don't see it. RGIII and Coach Shanahan have the Redskins on a six-game winning streak, and they have the strength and talent to make that seven. REDSKINS, 28-23
Monday, December 24, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 16 power ranks
I'm going to do something a bit different this week, and only rank the playoff-eligible teams. Since the AFC playoff teams are set (only the seeds remain to be determined), that totals 15 teams. Let's look at each one:
NFL Playoff-eligible Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (12-3) [1] : Hot on a ten-game winning streak, the Broncos now have a chance to capture the AFC top seed and make the AFC champion come through Denver, a notoriously difficult place to play in winter.
2. Atlanta Falcons (13-2) [5] : After two impressive victories, the Falcons have solidified their right to lead the NFC
3. New England Patriots (11-4) [3] : While their shot at AFC top seed is slim, this team is dangerous. Few defenses can slow this team; not even the 49ers could do that
4. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [7] : The offense is surging here at the end of the season, and if they capture the second seed and get a bye week to regain some of their injured defensive players, this team could reach the NFC Championship Game
5. Houston Texans (12-3) [4] : Their offense looked atrocious against the Vikings, and the defense wasn't much better. The Texans have been playing non-divisional teams in lackluster fashion recently, and that doesn't bode well for the playoffs.
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-5) [6] : Beating the 49ers clinched a playoff spot, and also make the Seahawks the NFC team with the best four-game stretch right now
7. San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) [2] : The 49ers could miss a first week bye, and could even lose the division title. This team has some issues.
8. Chicago Bears (9-6) [8] : A strong win against Arizona still leaves concerns about Jay Cutler, who didn't complete a pass in the Bears first two drives. The defense accounted for two scores, showing their takeaway power is back.
9. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [10] : They halted their losing streak and clinched the AFC North, but they now have the fourth seed when they were nearly a lock for the second seed four weeks ago
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) [9] : The offense sputtered a bit this week, but the Bengals are still a dangerous team
11. Washington Redskins (9-6) [11] : Their six-game winning streak is the longest in the NFC, and they have talent on both sides of the ball
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-7) [13] : Strong team, but they may not make the playoffs (see my Playoff Race section below)
13. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [14] : They bounced back from a big loss to the Texans, but their offense seemed pedestrian against the weak KC defense
14. New York Giants (8-7) [12] : No team with a winning record has had two worse games than the Giants have delivered
15. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) [16] : The Cowboys need to beat the Redskins and win the NFC East in order to reach the playoffs. They had a great four-minute span at the end of the game against the Saints, but can they do that against a team that has any kind of defense?
Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : Wins by all three of the winning teams pushed this division back on top. They play each other this week, so it'll be interesting to see if they can finish the season on top.
2. NFC South [4] : Big jump as three teams win. This is the only division without a team with double-digit losses
3. AFC North [2] : Baltimore ended their losing streak and this is the only AFC division with three teams with positive point differentials.
4. NFC West [2] : The only division in the NFC with two teams that have at least ten victories
5. NFC East [5] : Don't be fooled by the position -- the largest gap between any two positions separates the NFC West and NFC East
6. AFC East [6] : Without the Patriots, this division would suck
7. AFC South [7] : They may have two playoff teams, but they also have two of the worst teams in the league
8. AFC West [8] : They end up the worst division in the league for two consecutive seasons
Playoff Seed races:
The AFC have all of their teams defined; seeds remain to be determined. The NFC has two spots open - the NFC East winner and the sixth seed. I do not understand how NFL.com has projected the NFC seedings. Apparently, they either believe that the Bears will lose to the Lions or that Minnesota will beat Green Bay AND both San Fran and Seattle will lose. Weird.
AFC: All division titles are set, and the wildcard teams are determined. The only confirmed seed is Baltimore as the fourth seed. Houston leads for the top seed, but they need to beat Indy to get it. The Broncos should easily beat the Chiefs to capture a bye week; top seed if Houston falters or the second seed if Houston wins. If Houston loses and the Patriots win, the Pats gain the second seed and Houston the third. A Texans win puts the Patriots in the third seed. For the wildcards, it's easy. A Colts win over Houston makes them the fifth seed, as does a Bengals loss to the Ravens. A Colts loss and Bengals win propels the Bengals to fifth seed.
My projections:
1. Denver Broncos - a Colts win puts a rejuvenated Peyton on top
2. New England Patriots - easy win over Miami
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colt
6. Cincinnati Bengals
NFC: The Falcons are the top seed and the NFC East winner will be the fourth seed. The Redskins-Cowboys game will determine that fourth seed. The Packers clinch the second seed with a win over the Vikings. If the Pack lose and the Seahawks win the NFC West, Seattle gains the second seed thanks to a Seahawks victory over the Pack in Week 3. The 49ers capture the second seed by beating Arizona and hoping the Vikings beat the Pack. The Pack have the third seed if they lose and the 49ers win OR the Seahawks win the NFC West. If all three teams (Packers, 49ers, and Seattle) lose, the Pack get the second seed. The NFC West runner-up will be the fifth seed. Minnesota clinches the sixth seed if they beat Green Bay. The Bears capture that spot with a win over Detroit and a Vikings loss. The Giants need too many teams to lose, as well as a victory over Philly, to get it.
My projections:
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers - they should beat the Vikings, despite many analysts believing otherwise
3. San Francisco 49ers - the Cardinals won't be a difficult opponent
4. Washington Redskins - they should beat the Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Chicago Bears - the Lions will play tough, but the Bears should win
NFL Playoff-eligible Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (12-3) [1] : Hot on a ten-game winning streak, the Broncos now have a chance to capture the AFC top seed and make the AFC champion come through Denver, a notoriously difficult place to play in winter.
2. Atlanta Falcons (13-2) [5] : After two impressive victories, the Falcons have solidified their right to lead the NFC
3. New England Patriots (11-4) [3] : While their shot at AFC top seed is slim, this team is dangerous. Few defenses can slow this team; not even the 49ers could do that
4. Green Bay Packers (11-4) [7] : The offense is surging here at the end of the season, and if they capture the second seed and get a bye week to regain some of their injured defensive players, this team could reach the NFC Championship Game
5. Houston Texans (12-3) [4] : Their offense looked atrocious against the Vikings, and the defense wasn't much better. The Texans have been playing non-divisional teams in lackluster fashion recently, and that doesn't bode well for the playoffs.
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-5) [6] : Beating the 49ers clinched a playoff spot, and also make the Seahawks the NFC team with the best four-game stretch right now
7. San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1) [2] : The 49ers could miss a first week bye, and could even lose the division title. This team has some issues.
8. Chicago Bears (9-6) [8] : A strong win against Arizona still leaves concerns about Jay Cutler, who didn't complete a pass in the Bears first two drives. The defense accounted for two scores, showing their takeaway power is back.
9. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) [10] : They halted their losing streak and clinched the AFC North, but they now have the fourth seed when they were nearly a lock for the second seed four weeks ago
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) [9] : The offense sputtered a bit this week, but the Bengals are still a dangerous team
11. Washington Redskins (9-6) [11] : Their six-game winning streak is the longest in the NFC, and they have talent on both sides of the ball
12. Minnesota Vikings (8-7) [13] : Strong team, but they may not make the playoffs (see my Playoff Race section below)
13. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) [14] : They bounced back from a big loss to the Texans, but their offense seemed pedestrian against the weak KC defense
14. New York Giants (8-7) [12] : No team with a winning record has had two worse games than the Giants have delivered
15. Dallas Cowboys (8-7) [16] : The Cowboys need to beat the Redskins and win the NFC East in order to reach the playoffs. They had a great four-minute span at the end of the game against the Saints, but can they do that against a team that has any kind of defense?
Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : Wins by all three of the winning teams pushed this division back on top. They play each other this week, so it'll be interesting to see if they can finish the season on top.
2. NFC South [4] : Big jump as three teams win. This is the only division without a team with double-digit losses
3. AFC North [2] : Baltimore ended their losing streak and this is the only AFC division with three teams with positive point differentials.
4. NFC West [2] : The only division in the NFC with two teams that have at least ten victories
5. NFC East [5] : Don't be fooled by the position -- the largest gap between any two positions separates the NFC West and NFC East
6. AFC East [6] : Without the Patriots, this division would suck
7. AFC South [7] : They may have two playoff teams, but they also have two of the worst teams in the league
8. AFC West [8] : They end up the worst division in the league for two consecutive seasons
Playoff Seed races:
The AFC have all of their teams defined; seeds remain to be determined. The NFC has two spots open - the NFC East winner and the sixth seed. I do not understand how NFL.com has projected the NFC seedings. Apparently, they either believe that the Bears will lose to the Lions or that Minnesota will beat Green Bay AND both San Fran and Seattle will lose. Weird.
AFC: All division titles are set, and the wildcard teams are determined. The only confirmed seed is Baltimore as the fourth seed. Houston leads for the top seed, but they need to beat Indy to get it. The Broncos should easily beat the Chiefs to capture a bye week; top seed if Houston falters or the second seed if Houston wins. If Houston loses and the Patriots win, the Pats gain the second seed and Houston the third. A Texans win puts the Patriots in the third seed. For the wildcards, it's easy. A Colts win over Houston makes them the fifth seed, as does a Bengals loss to the Ravens. A Colts loss and Bengals win propels the Bengals to fifth seed.
My projections:
1. Denver Broncos - a Colts win puts a rejuvenated Peyton on top
2. New England Patriots - easy win over Miami
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colt
6. Cincinnati Bengals
NFC: The Falcons are the top seed and the NFC East winner will be the fourth seed. The Redskins-Cowboys game will determine that fourth seed. The Packers clinch the second seed with a win over the Vikings. If the Pack lose and the Seahawks win the NFC West, Seattle gains the second seed thanks to a Seahawks victory over the Pack in Week 3. The 49ers capture the second seed by beating Arizona and hoping the Vikings beat the Pack. The Pack have the third seed if they lose and the 49ers win OR the Seahawks win the NFC West. If all three teams (Packers, 49ers, and Seattle) lose, the Pack get the second seed. The NFC West runner-up will be the fifth seed. Minnesota clinches the sixth seed if they beat Green Bay. The Bears capture that spot with a win over Detroit and a Vikings loss. The Giants need too many teams to lose, as well as a victory over Philly, to get it.
My projections:
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers - they should beat the Vikings, despite many analysts believing otherwise
3. San Francisco 49ers - the Cardinals won't be a difficult opponent
4. Washington Redskins - they should beat the Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Chicago Bears - the Lions will play tough, but the Bears should win
Friday, December 21, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 16 picks
I'm picking half of the visiting teams. That always makes me nervous, but we have some weak home teams this week.
Saturday night: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions: The Falcons clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here. They should get it. The Lions have a decent passing game, but they focus on Calvin Johnson too much. The Falcons may not have the best defense in the NFC, but they can hinder one receiver. The Lions don't have much of a running game to fall back on, either. FALCONS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Neither team is great, but the Dolphins have some better talent. Their defense is definitely better, and Tannehill does interesting things with the offense. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: While you can never count out the Steelers, you can count them out of the playoffs if they lose here. Moreover, a Bengals win puts them in the playoffs, so there is plenty of incentive for the road team to win this one. Too, if the Ravens stumble, the Bengals see a glimmer to capture the division title. The division title might be difficult, but beating the Steelers to capture a wildcard spot is definitely likely. BENGALS, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Given the problems plaguing the Chiefs, the Colts should win this game easily. That guarantees the fifth seed. COLTS, 30-17
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: A win for the Texans guarantees the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Vikings need a win to keep pace with the other NFC wildcard contenders. The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson, as Ponder still needs some work at QB. The Texans have a stiff running defense, so don't expect the Vikings to do as much. That defense has shown some holes recently, but I think they'll get up for this game. The NFC has won many of these intraconference bouts, though, so an upset is possible. TEXANS, 27-20
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Pats defense is showing wear, so the Jags will score a bit, but their defense won't stop the dynamic Pats offense. PATRIOTS, 38-17
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and the Cowboys haven't self-destructed as badly this December as most years, but their offense still sputters a bit. The Saints offense has been clicking, and the Cowboys defense will do little to stop it. SAINTS, 30-23
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Neither team has a great defense, but the Raiders have been downright atrocious. Carolina will likely score the first two touchdowns and maintain that lead, even as the Raiders try to battle back in the third quarter. PANTHERS, 28-23
San Diego Chargers at New York Jets: Greg McElroy gets to start as this may be the last home game for both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. McElroy is different, and may breathe a little life into the offense, but where the Jets really need life is the defense, as the Chargers can score. If the Jets can't stop them, they can't keep pace. CHARGERS, 24-13
St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Rams might score the upset, as the Bucs have been sliding recently, but St Louis has done little outside their division. This won't be a pretty game, but it should favor the home team. BUCS, 26-23
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay needs to keep winning, and hope the 49ers falter, in order to game a playoff bye. They have enough injuries that they want that bye week. Talentwise, they should be able to beat Tennessee, but the Titans can be sneaky. If the defense slacks off in the fourth quarter, they could open the door for an upset. Somehow, though, I doubt it. PACKERS, 30-20
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: The Redskins now lead the NFC East, and a win here brings them one step closer to the division title and the fourth NFC seed. They should get it. The Eagles are in disarray, and RGIII should play enough to produce an insurmountable lead. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: The Bears have played an atrocious streak of games, but they are the 8-6 team with the best chance to reach 10-6. Although they conclude their season on the road, they face offensively-challenged Arizona and then travel to Detroit. The Bears could capture the fifth seed, but they need to win this game. They should, unless they turn the ball over too often and too close to the goal line. The Cardinals offense can't sustain drives, but they can succeed on short yardage drives. I think the Bears will play just well enough to win this one. BEARS, 23-17
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: By the start of this game, the Broncos will know if they still have a shot at the top seed, and will also know if the Patriots have closed the gap on the second seed. No matter the results of either game, the Broncos should win this game handily. The Browns defense is good this year, but Peyton Manning has gotten comfortable with his new offensive scheme and receivers, and is passing as smoothly as he was in 2010. Brandon Wheeden will drive the Browns well, and keep the game within reach for three quarters, but Peyton will engineer a back-breaking fourth quarter drive. BRONCOS, 30-20
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams have stumbled of late, but the Giants were shockingly exposed last week. The Ravens defense is more talented than the Falcons, so they should be able to throttle New York. I'm sure the Giants will have learned something from last week, and play more cleanly, but it will still not be sufficient. Besides, the Ravens know that they win the AFC North with a victory, and they want that. They don't want to have to travel to Cincinnati and risk losing the division. RAVENS, 24-20
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: This could be the most exciting game of the day. Both teams are fighting for playoff position. If Green Bay wins, the 49ers will see their lead for a playoff bye slipping. The Seahawks know they need a win to remain ahead of any 9-6 teams produced by Sunday games. These two will battle back and forth. Unfortunately, while Seattle has been a force to other teams, they have played poorly against division opponents. That will likely continue this game. 49ERS, 23-20
Saturday night: Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions: The Falcons clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here. They should get it. The Lions have a decent passing game, but they focus on Calvin Johnson too much. The Falcons may not have the best defense in the NFC, but they can hinder one receiver. The Lions don't have much of a running game to fall back on, either. FALCONS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Neither team is great, but the Dolphins have some better talent. Their defense is definitely better, and Tannehill does interesting things with the offense. DOLPHINS, 24-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: While you can never count out the Steelers, you can count them out of the playoffs if they lose here. Moreover, a Bengals win puts them in the playoffs, so there is plenty of incentive for the road team to win this one. Too, if the Ravens stumble, the Bengals see a glimmer to capture the division title. The division title might be difficult, but beating the Steelers to capture a wildcard spot is definitely likely. BENGALS, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Given the problems plaguing the Chiefs, the Colts should win this game easily. That guarantees the fifth seed. COLTS, 30-17
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: A win for the Texans guarantees the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Vikings need a win to keep pace with the other NFC wildcard contenders. The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson, as Ponder still needs some work at QB. The Texans have a stiff running defense, so don't expect the Vikings to do as much. That defense has shown some holes recently, but I think they'll get up for this game. The NFC has won many of these intraconference bouts, though, so an upset is possible. TEXANS, 27-20
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Pats defense is showing wear, so the Jags will score a bit, but their defense won't stop the dynamic Pats offense. PATRIOTS, 38-17
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and the Cowboys haven't self-destructed as badly this December as most years, but their offense still sputters a bit. The Saints offense has been clicking, and the Cowboys defense will do little to stop it. SAINTS, 30-23
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Neither team has a great defense, but the Raiders have been downright atrocious. Carolina will likely score the first two touchdowns and maintain that lead, even as the Raiders try to battle back in the third quarter. PANTHERS, 28-23
San Diego Chargers at New York Jets: Greg McElroy gets to start as this may be the last home game for both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. McElroy is different, and may breathe a little life into the offense, but where the Jets really need life is the defense, as the Chargers can score. If the Jets can't stop them, they can't keep pace. CHARGERS, 24-13
St Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Rams might score the upset, as the Bucs have been sliding recently, but St Louis has done little outside their division. This won't be a pretty game, but it should favor the home team. BUCS, 26-23
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay needs to keep winning, and hope the 49ers falter, in order to game a playoff bye. They have enough injuries that they want that bye week. Talentwise, they should be able to beat Tennessee, but the Titans can be sneaky. If the defense slacks off in the fourth quarter, they could open the door for an upset. Somehow, though, I doubt it. PACKERS, 30-20
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: The Redskins now lead the NFC East, and a win here brings them one step closer to the division title and the fourth NFC seed. They should get it. The Eagles are in disarray, and RGIII should play enough to produce an insurmountable lead. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals: The Bears have played an atrocious streak of games, but they are the 8-6 team with the best chance to reach 10-6. Although they conclude their season on the road, they face offensively-challenged Arizona and then travel to Detroit. The Bears could capture the fifth seed, but they need to win this game. They should, unless they turn the ball over too often and too close to the goal line. The Cardinals offense can't sustain drives, but they can succeed on short yardage drives. I think the Bears will play just well enough to win this one. BEARS, 23-17
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: By the start of this game, the Broncos will know if they still have a shot at the top seed, and will also know if the Patriots have closed the gap on the second seed. No matter the results of either game, the Broncos should win this game handily. The Browns defense is good this year, but Peyton Manning has gotten comfortable with his new offensive scheme and receivers, and is passing as smoothly as he was in 2010. Brandon Wheeden will drive the Browns well, and keep the game within reach for three quarters, but Peyton will engineer a back-breaking fourth quarter drive. BRONCOS, 30-20
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams have stumbled of late, but the Giants were shockingly exposed last week. The Ravens defense is more talented than the Falcons, so they should be able to throttle New York. I'm sure the Giants will have learned something from last week, and play more cleanly, but it will still not be sufficient. Besides, the Ravens know that they win the AFC North with a victory, and they want that. They don't want to have to travel to Cincinnati and risk losing the division. RAVENS, 24-20
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: This could be the most exciting game of the day. Both teams are fighting for playoff position. If Green Bay wins, the 49ers will see their lead for a playoff bye slipping. The Seahawks know they need a win to remain ahead of any 9-6 teams produced by Sunday games. These two will battle back and forth. Unfortunately, while Seattle has been a force to other teams, they have played poorly against division opponents. That will likely continue this game. 49ERS, 23-20
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 15 power rankings
Some interesting results shifted the power rankings, and we have a new top team. We also have more AFC teams in the top five than the NFC, not a usual situation this season.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (11-3) [4] : A clobbering of the Ravens and most dynamic offense in the AFC propels this team to the top
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) [2] : Their defense couldn't stop the Patriots, but they slowed New England enough for their offense to take control
3. New England Patriots (10-4) [1] : Still dangerous, although their questionable defense hurts them
4. Houston Texans (12-2) [3] : Their defense held back Indy, clinching their division and keeping them on track to gain the top AFC seed
5. Atlanta Falcons (12-2) [5] : A rare shutout against the Giants practically guaranteed them the top seed in the NFC
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-5) [6] : Although some are accusing Pete Carroll of running up the score against Buffalo, the Seahawks needed a strong victory to solidify their wildcard bid
7. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [10] : A strong win over the struggling Bears won them the division and a strong position
8. Chicago Bears (8-6) [7] : The Bears slipped, but their offense remains strong
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) [11] : The Bengals are one win away from a playoff spot
10. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [9] : In danger of failing to capture the AFC North title, the Ravens are now longer the strongest team in that division
11. Washington Redskins (8-6) [12] : The Redskins now lead the NFC East and are gaining momentum
12. New York Giants (8-6) [8] : After suffering their worst loss in years, the Giants playoff hopes are fading
13. Minnesota Vikings (8-6 [16] : The Vikings jumped into strong playoff contention, but they face some stiff competition in the next two weeks
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-5) [14] : They lost any shot at the division, but a wildcard berth is theirs
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) [15] : The Steelers are seeing their playoff hopes evaporate, but they still have strength
16. Dallas Cowboys (8-6) [19] : One of their best Decembers in years is not only keeping them in the playoff hunt, but rises them into the upper half of the league's power
Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : This division returns to the lead with improvements by Green Bay and Minnesota
2 (tie). AFC North [2] : Baltimore's fall is risking knocking this division to third place
2 (tie). NFC West [2] : Seattle's improvement boosts this division, which is likely to produce two playoff teams
4. NFC South [4] : There is a huge gap between this division and the next, meaning these four are clearly the best
5. NFC East [5] : This is the only division with three teams with winning records, but none of them have been consistently stellar.
6. AFC East [6] : With the Jets loss, the Patriots are the only strong team in this division
7. AFC South [7] : This division holds two playoff teams, but also holds two of the worst teams in the league. At least the Titans showed some life this week.
8. AFC West [8] : Worst division by far, Denver is the only good team, and Oakland and KC are among the worst in the league
Playoff races:
Some division titles were set this week, and playoff spots solidified. The playoff contenders have shrunk, and battles continue. Few seeds are set, so no team will be slacking off.
AFC: Three division titles are set, and Baltimore leads the remaining one. The Ravens and Colts are in the playoffs, leaving just one slot to fill. Cincy gains it with a win. That leaves the seeds. Houston has a one-game lead for the top seed, but they face some stiff challenges in the next two weeks. New England had the best shot, but their loss to San Francisco advances Denver. I see Denver taking the top with two more wins. Houston would need to win the rematch against the Colts in Indy to capture the other bye week. The AFC North winner will definitely be the fourth seed, with Indy as fifth and Cincy as sixth.
NFC: Only half of the division titles are set, but a 49ers victory over Seattle this week would clinch that division. Atlanta will clinch the top seed with a win over Detroit on Saturday night. San Fran should capture the second seed if they beat Seattle. If the Seahawks engineer an upset, the Packers get that bye week. The NFC East champ is definitely the fourth seed. Wildcards are a harder to pick here, especially if Seattle loses to San Fran. If they win, they get the fifth seed. Minnesota leads the race for sixth seed, but they still face the Bears again. Chicago could go 10-6 and capture the sixth seed, as could Minnesota. Washington has the best chance to win the NFC East and capture the fourth seed, especially since both the Giants and Cowboys have tough opponents this week.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (11-3) [4] : A clobbering of the Ravens and most dynamic offense in the AFC propels this team to the top
2. San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) [2] : Their defense couldn't stop the Patriots, but they slowed New England enough for their offense to take control
3. New England Patriots (10-4) [1] : Still dangerous, although their questionable defense hurts them
4. Houston Texans (12-2) [3] : Their defense held back Indy, clinching their division and keeping them on track to gain the top AFC seed
5. Atlanta Falcons (12-2) [5] : A rare shutout against the Giants practically guaranteed them the top seed in the NFC
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-5) [6] : Although some are accusing Pete Carroll of running up the score against Buffalo, the Seahawks needed a strong victory to solidify their wildcard bid
7. Green Bay Packers (10-4) [10] : A strong win over the struggling Bears won them the division and a strong position
8. Chicago Bears (8-6) [7] : The Bears slipped, but their offense remains strong
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) [11] : The Bengals are one win away from a playoff spot
10. Baltimore Ravens (9-5) [9] : In danger of failing to capture the AFC North title, the Ravens are now longer the strongest team in that division
11. Washington Redskins (8-6) [12] : The Redskins now lead the NFC East and are gaining momentum
12. New York Giants (8-6) [8] : After suffering their worst loss in years, the Giants playoff hopes are fading
13. Minnesota Vikings (8-6 [16] : The Vikings jumped into strong playoff contention, but they face some stiff competition in the next two weeks
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-5) [14] : They lost any shot at the division, but a wildcard berth is theirs
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) [15] : The Steelers are seeing their playoff hopes evaporate, but they still have strength
16. Dallas Cowboys (8-6) [19] : One of their best Decembers in years is not only keeping them in the playoff hunt, but rises them into the upper half of the league's power
Divisional power rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : This division returns to the lead with improvements by Green Bay and Minnesota
2 (tie). AFC North [2] : Baltimore's fall is risking knocking this division to third place
2 (tie). NFC West [2] : Seattle's improvement boosts this division, which is likely to produce two playoff teams
4. NFC South [4] : There is a huge gap between this division and the next, meaning these four are clearly the best
5. NFC East [5] : This is the only division with three teams with winning records, but none of them have been consistently stellar.
6. AFC East [6] : With the Jets loss, the Patriots are the only strong team in this division
7. AFC South [7] : This division holds two playoff teams, but also holds two of the worst teams in the league. At least the Titans showed some life this week.
8. AFC West [8] : Worst division by far, Denver is the only good team, and Oakland and KC are among the worst in the league
Playoff races:
Some division titles were set this week, and playoff spots solidified. The playoff contenders have shrunk, and battles continue. Few seeds are set, so no team will be slacking off.
AFC: Three division titles are set, and Baltimore leads the remaining one. The Ravens and Colts are in the playoffs, leaving just one slot to fill. Cincy gains it with a win. That leaves the seeds. Houston has a one-game lead for the top seed, but they face some stiff challenges in the next two weeks. New England had the best shot, but their loss to San Francisco advances Denver. I see Denver taking the top with two more wins. Houston would need to win the rematch against the Colts in Indy to capture the other bye week. The AFC North winner will definitely be the fourth seed, with Indy as fifth and Cincy as sixth.
NFC: Only half of the division titles are set, but a 49ers victory over Seattle this week would clinch that division. Atlanta will clinch the top seed with a win over Detroit on Saturday night. San Fran should capture the second seed if they beat Seattle. If the Seahawks engineer an upset, the Packers get that bye week. The NFC East champ is definitely the fourth seed. Wildcards are a harder to pick here, especially if Seattle loses to San Fran. If they win, they get the fifth seed. Minnesota leads the race for sixth seed, but they still face the Bears again. Chicago could go 10-6 and capture the sixth seed, as could Minnesota. Washington has the best chance to win the NFC East and capture the fourth seed, especially since both the Giants and Cowboys have tough opponents this week.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 15 picks
I had the second worst week of the season. Lots of visitors, but not all those that I picked. Since we haven't had two weeks in a row with lots of road teams winning, I picked with caution this week.
Thursday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles and the Eagles seem to want to play spoiler, but the Bengals are hungry. If I've learned one thing from watching jungle movies, you never interfere with a hungry tiger! You know Cincy will be rooting for Denver after this game. BENGALS, 27-20
Sunday early games
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are scrapping for the AFC North title, but Denver is battling New England for the top seed. That means the Broncos will be driving hard on offense and battling hard on defense. The Broncos have actually allowed fewer points than the Ravens, so that defense is working! BRONCOS, 28-23
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Green Bay knows it can win the NFC North with a win here, but I don't want to pick too many road teams. Besides, the Bears would have won the game against Minnesota, despite Adrian Peterson's nearly 200 yards rushing, if Jay Cutler had not turned the ball over. He should still be out, and Jason Campbell takes fewer chances. He doesn't have Cutler's arm strength, but I don't think they'll need too many long passes. The Bears defense, even without Brian Urlacher, is pretty stout. They haven't forced a turnover in two weeks, so I think it's time. BEARS in an upset, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Whoo, I'd love to pick the Colts in the upset, and truthfully I think they might do it, but again I hesitate to pick too many road teams, and there other games where the road team is the much more obvious pick. Besides, a Colts victory here should be allowed to be considered an upset, so I'll pick a stiff Texans team who may have woken up after last week's loss. TEXANS, 24-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Logically, the Dolphins should win this one, but I have to pick the road team here. The Jags are improving, and this is Chad Henne's chance to outplay his old team. This one may be won on the final field-goal producing drive, but I think the Jags, especially Henne, will engineer the upset. JAGS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at St Louis Rams: This is a pretty easy road pick, although the Rams play tough at home, so it'll be closer than the Vikes would like. VIKINGS, 23-20
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: The Giants exhausted two and a half weeks worth of offense last week. Although the Falcons defense has been faltering recently, the Giants will be tired. FALCONS, 30-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Bucs defense is faltering recently, which makes this upset pick easier. The Saints should make a great home stand and knock Tampa Bay out of playoff contention. SAINTS, 31-23
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: This is an obvious road pick, although the possibility of RGIII sitting out could make the game close. Kurt Cousins is good, but not as good as RGIII. Given a strong Browns defense, this will be a low-scoring game. With Cousins at the helm, the Browns could win this one, but I like the Redskins players to build on their emotionally high upset victory from last week. REDSKINS, 20-17
Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Here is a game that the road team could win, but I like the possibility of the Chargers winning at home. The Panthers defense is not strong, so the Chargers should be able to score enough to win. CHARGERS, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are mess, and Detroit nearly beat Green Bay, so this one is a no-brainer. LIONS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Despite the Chiefs collapse, a decline in the Raiders defense makes these two fairly evenly matched. I think the Raiders will squeeze it out (mainly so that I don't have to pick too many visiting teams), but Carson Palmer needs some help from the receiving corps, man! RAIDERS, 21-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys usually fade in December, but the Steelers are fading worse this season. COWBOYS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Seattle is firmly in the playoff hunt, and Russell Wilson has the offense moving the ball. The defense comes and goes, but they don't have to be too strong to throttle struggling Buffalo. SEAHAWKS, 30-21
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: The Texans' defense couldn't hold back the Pats. The 49ers have a slightly better pass defense, but the Pats will still overwhelm them, just not by as much. PATRIOTS, 34-21
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: The Titans aren't great, but the collapse of the Jets offense, and the fact that Tennessee is playing at home, draws me to an upset pick here. TITANS, 23-17
Thursday night: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles and the Eagles seem to want to play spoiler, but the Bengals are hungry. If I've learned one thing from watching jungle movies, you never interfere with a hungry tiger! You know Cincy will be rooting for Denver after this game. BENGALS, 27-20
Sunday early games
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are scrapping for the AFC North title, but Denver is battling New England for the top seed. That means the Broncos will be driving hard on offense and battling hard on defense. The Broncos have actually allowed fewer points than the Ravens, so that defense is working! BRONCOS, 28-23
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Green Bay knows it can win the NFC North with a win here, but I don't want to pick too many road teams. Besides, the Bears would have won the game against Minnesota, despite Adrian Peterson's nearly 200 yards rushing, if Jay Cutler had not turned the ball over. He should still be out, and Jason Campbell takes fewer chances. He doesn't have Cutler's arm strength, but I don't think they'll need too many long passes. The Bears defense, even without Brian Urlacher, is pretty stout. They haven't forced a turnover in two weeks, so I think it's time. BEARS in an upset, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Whoo, I'd love to pick the Colts in the upset, and truthfully I think they might do it, but again I hesitate to pick too many road teams, and there other games where the road team is the much more obvious pick. Besides, a Colts victory here should be allowed to be considered an upset, so I'll pick a stiff Texans team who may have woken up after last week's loss. TEXANS, 24-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Logically, the Dolphins should win this one, but I have to pick the road team here. The Jags are improving, and this is Chad Henne's chance to outplay his old team. This one may be won on the final field-goal producing drive, but I think the Jags, especially Henne, will engineer the upset. JAGS, 23-20
Minnesota Vikings at St Louis Rams: This is a pretty easy road pick, although the Rams play tough at home, so it'll be closer than the Vikes would like. VIKINGS, 23-20
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: The Giants exhausted two and a half weeks worth of offense last week. Although the Falcons defense has been faltering recently, the Giants will be tired. FALCONS, 30-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Bucs defense is faltering recently, which makes this upset pick easier. The Saints should make a great home stand and knock Tampa Bay out of playoff contention. SAINTS, 31-23
Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: This is an obvious road pick, although the possibility of RGIII sitting out could make the game close. Kurt Cousins is good, but not as good as RGIII. Given a strong Browns defense, this will be a low-scoring game. With Cousins at the helm, the Browns could win this one, but I like the Redskins players to build on their emotionally high upset victory from last week. REDSKINS, 20-17
Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Here is a game that the road team could win, but I like the possibility of the Chargers winning at home. The Panthers defense is not strong, so the Chargers should be able to score enough to win. CHARGERS, 27-20
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are mess, and Detroit nearly beat Green Bay, so this one is a no-brainer. LIONS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Despite the Chiefs collapse, a decline in the Raiders defense makes these two fairly evenly matched. I think the Raiders will squeeze it out (mainly so that I don't have to pick too many visiting teams), but Carson Palmer needs some help from the receiving corps, man! RAIDERS, 21-20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys usually fade in December, but the Steelers are fading worse this season. COWBOYS, 26-20
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Seattle is firmly in the playoff hunt, and Russell Wilson has the offense moving the ball. The defense comes and goes, but they don't have to be too strong to throttle struggling Buffalo. SEAHAWKS, 30-21
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: The Texans' defense couldn't hold back the Pats. The 49ers have a slightly better pass defense, but the Pats will still overwhelm them, just not by as much. PATRIOTS, 34-21
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: The Titans aren't great, but the collapse of the Jets offense, and the fact that Tennessee is playing at home, draws me to an upset pick here. TITANS, 23-17
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 14 power rankings
For the first time in many weeks, we have a new Number One! These rankings are reflective of how a team has played throughout the season (thus, the Bears remain in the top half despite abyssmal performances in the last five weeks), and the Patriots stunk early in the season, but no team has been so dominant in the last six weeks as the Patriots. If they keep this up (and given Bill Belichick's December record, I see no reason they couldn't), the Patriots should finish 13-3 and capture the top seed in the AFC.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. New England Patriots (10-3) [3] : They completely destroyed the previous Number One team
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) [5] : For any team not from St Louis, this team is a nightmare to play
3. Houston Texans (11-2) [1] : They didn't look like a Top Ten team on Monday night
4. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : They could capture the second seed in the AFC
5. Atlanta Falcons (11-2) [2] : Looked confused against Carolina
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) [10] : With Chicago's collapse, this team is practically guaranteed a playoff spot
7. Chicago Bears (8-5) [6] : Jason Campbell attempted to engineer a comeback after two Cutler turnovers put them behind 21-7, but poor use of timeouts jeopardized that
8. New York Giants (8-5) [8] : Whoa! Who woke up that offense?!
9. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) [7] : How the mighty have fallen. The Ravens will likely capture the AFC North, but now they will get the fourth seed, when just three weeks ago they seemed a lock for the second seed
10. Green Bay Packers (9-4) [9] : They sputtered a bit against Detroit
11. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) [11] : Tough loss against Dallas (they relaxed too much), but still a strong playoff contender
12. Washington Redskins (7-6) [13] : Even with RGIII out, Kurt Cousins ran the offense to score the game tying touchdown and 2-point conversion. The Redskins are happy that the Ravens special teams failed to show up in overtime
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-7) [12] : They slacked off late in the fourth, allowing Nick Foles and the Eagles to beat them
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [15] : They still win close games, remaining the only top half power team with a negative point differential, but Andrew Luck and company continue to find ways to win
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) [14] : Their defense couldn't hold back San Diego, and may have given up a playoff spot
16. Minnesota Vikings (7-6) [16] : They are a one-sided offense, as Adrian Peterson is the only consistent player, but Peterson still posts 100+ yard games
Divisional Power Rankings: [Last week's position]
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : I warned of this last week, and it's starting. The AFC North is surpassing everyone, as even Cleveland finds their footing.
1 (tie), NFC North [1] : If Chicago doesn't regain their power, this division could fall to fourth place before the season ends.
3. NFC West [4] : Except for Arizona (who stunk badly), this division showed up strongly this weekend
4. NFC South [3] : Collapses by all but Carolina has this division on a downward spiral
5. NFC East [5] : Surprise wins by most of the division keeps them bolstered
6. AFC East [6] : While the Patriots are the only team with a winning record, their Number One position keeps this division afloat
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy continue to compensate for the poor showings of Tennessee and Jacksonville
8. AFC West [8] : Division with the overall worst winning percentage
Divisional races
No new division titles crowned this week, and some races just got more interesting.
AFC North: Cincy couldn't close the gap between them and Baltimore. The Ravens need only a win or a Bengals loss to clinch.
AFC South: New England's beatdown of Houston makes this interesting. The gap is only two games, and the division leaders (Indy and Houston) play each other twice in the next three weeks. The Colts could capture the lead, but they must win on the road this week in Houston. A Texans win and Colts loss awards the division to Houston.
NFC East: The contenders remain within a game of each other. The Giants lead, and they had the most impressive performance on Sunday. They have to go on the road to the Falcons, though, and Dallas and Washington face opponents with losing records. This division could knot up after this week.
NFC North: The Pack leads Chicago by one. Minnesota has gotten firmly the race, only two back. The Pack travel to Chicago. If Green Bay exits with a win, they capture the division. If the Bears win and the Vikings beat the Rams, it becomes quite interesting.
NFC West: San Fran leads Seattle by a game and a half and leads the Rams by three. The 49ers have to play the Patriots in Foxboro, so Seattle can gain ground. The Rams play the Vikings -- they lose, they're out of contention. Seattle plays Buffalo, so a likely win puts them in close proximity to the 49ers.
AFC seeds: Although still a game ahead of both New England and Denver, Houston's hold on the top seed is slipping. The Patriots now hold the tiebreaker over both, having beaten Denver in Week 5. I think the Patriots are the likely top seed. Houston will probably capture Number Two, and Denver is a strong Number Three. Baltimore, as AFC North winner, will be Number Four. Indianapolis needs one more win or a Bengals loss to capture Number Five. Cincy should capture Number Six. Pitt and the Jets still have a chance, but they'd need to win out.
NFC seeds: The Falcons hold a strong game and a half lead over San Fran and two games over Green Bay. A win this week against the Giants, or a 49ers loss to New England and a Packers loss to Chicago, clinches the top seed. Number Two is a close race between Green Bay and San Fran. The NFC East winner will be fourth seed. The Bears are reeling, which gives Seattle the inside track for fifth seed. Chicago could capture sixth if they right themselves, otherwise a surging Redskins have a shot. Dallas and Minnesota are also possibilities.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. New England Patriots (10-3) [3] : They completely destroyed the previous Number One team
2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) [5] : For any team not from St Louis, this team is a nightmare to play
3. Houston Texans (11-2) [1] : They didn't look like a Top Ten team on Monday night
4. Denver Broncos (10-3) [4] : They could capture the second seed in the AFC
5. Atlanta Falcons (11-2) [2] : Looked confused against Carolina
6. Seattle Seahawks (8-5) [10] : With Chicago's collapse, this team is practically guaranteed a playoff spot
7. Chicago Bears (8-5) [6] : Jason Campbell attempted to engineer a comeback after two Cutler turnovers put them behind 21-7, but poor use of timeouts jeopardized that
8. New York Giants (8-5) [8] : Whoa! Who woke up that offense?!
9. Baltimore Ravens (9-4) [7] : How the mighty have fallen. The Ravens will likely capture the AFC North, but now they will get the fourth seed, when just three weeks ago they seemed a lock for the second seed
10. Green Bay Packers (9-4) [9] : They sputtered a bit against Detroit
11. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) [11] : Tough loss against Dallas (they relaxed too much), but still a strong playoff contender
12. Washington Redskins (7-6) [13] : Even with RGIII out, Kurt Cousins ran the offense to score the game tying touchdown and 2-point conversion. The Redskins are happy that the Ravens special teams failed to show up in overtime
13. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-7) [12] : They slacked off late in the fourth, allowing Nick Foles and the Eagles to beat them
14. Indianapolis Colts (9-4) [15] : They still win close games, remaining the only top half power team with a negative point differential, but Andrew Luck and company continue to find ways to win
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) [14] : Their defense couldn't hold back San Diego, and may have given up a playoff spot
16. Minnesota Vikings (7-6) [16] : They are a one-sided offense, as Adrian Peterson is the only consistent player, but Peterson still posts 100+ yard games
Divisional Power Rankings: [Last week's position]
1 (tie). AFC North [2] : I warned of this last week, and it's starting. The AFC North is surpassing everyone, as even Cleveland finds their footing.
1 (tie), NFC North [1] : If Chicago doesn't regain their power, this division could fall to fourth place before the season ends.
3. NFC West [4] : Except for Arizona (who stunk badly), this division showed up strongly this weekend
4. NFC South [3] : Collapses by all but Carolina has this division on a downward spiral
5. NFC East [5] : Surprise wins by most of the division keeps them bolstered
6. AFC East [6] : While the Patriots are the only team with a winning record, their Number One position keeps this division afloat
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy continue to compensate for the poor showings of Tennessee and Jacksonville
8. AFC West [8] : Division with the overall worst winning percentage
Divisional races
No new division titles crowned this week, and some races just got more interesting.
AFC North: Cincy couldn't close the gap between them and Baltimore. The Ravens need only a win or a Bengals loss to clinch.
AFC South: New England's beatdown of Houston makes this interesting. The gap is only two games, and the division leaders (Indy and Houston) play each other twice in the next three weeks. The Colts could capture the lead, but they must win on the road this week in Houston. A Texans win and Colts loss awards the division to Houston.
NFC East: The contenders remain within a game of each other. The Giants lead, and they had the most impressive performance on Sunday. They have to go on the road to the Falcons, though, and Dallas and Washington face opponents with losing records. This division could knot up after this week.
NFC North: The Pack leads Chicago by one. Minnesota has gotten firmly the race, only two back. The Pack travel to Chicago. If Green Bay exits with a win, they capture the division. If the Bears win and the Vikings beat the Rams, it becomes quite interesting.
NFC West: San Fran leads Seattle by a game and a half and leads the Rams by three. The 49ers have to play the Patriots in Foxboro, so Seattle can gain ground. The Rams play the Vikings -- they lose, they're out of contention. Seattle plays Buffalo, so a likely win puts them in close proximity to the 49ers.
AFC seeds: Although still a game ahead of both New England and Denver, Houston's hold on the top seed is slipping. The Patriots now hold the tiebreaker over both, having beaten Denver in Week 5. I think the Patriots are the likely top seed. Houston will probably capture Number Two, and Denver is a strong Number Three. Baltimore, as AFC North winner, will be Number Four. Indianapolis needs one more win or a Bengals loss to capture Number Five. Cincy should capture Number Six. Pitt and the Jets still have a chance, but they'd need to win out.
NFC seeds: The Falcons hold a strong game and a half lead over San Fran and two games over Green Bay. A win this week against the Giants, or a 49ers loss to New England and a Packers loss to Chicago, clinches the top seed. Number Two is a close race between Green Bay and San Fran. The NFC East winner will be fourth seed. The Bears are reeling, which gives Seattle the inside track for fifth seed. Chicago could capture sixth if they right themselves, otherwise a surging Redskins have a shot. Dallas and Minnesota are also possibilities.
Monday, December 10, 2012
FBS 2012 Bowls Dec 15-30
There are some interesting matchups among these early bowls. Despite the conference affiliations of many bowls, most of the games have competitive matches. However, I am surprised by one glaring omission -- where is Louisiana Tech? The Bulldogs finished 9-3, the school is not on probation, they are ranked in many Top 25 polls, and their conference (WAC) did not exceed their bowl commitments, yet the Bulldogs were shut out of a bowl game. Why? There are 6-6 squads like Pittsburgh, Iowa State or Virginia Tech who could have been excluded. Three Big Ten teams were 6-6, although bowl games like Big Ten teams because their nationwide alumni base frequently show up; bowl games featuring Big Ten teams are always well-attended. But can we count on that from Pitt or Tech fans? Ole Miss is SEC, so rabid SEC fans, whether Ole Miss alumni or not, will likely attend. Duke so rarely makes a bowl, so let them in. But I'm sure there was a bowl executive who could have dropped a 6-6 team to let the Bulldogs in.
On my rankings, I will favor Louisiana Tech. No matter how many upsets occur, and how many teams could move into the Top 25, the Bulldogs will remain in my final Top 25. They deserve it for their excellent performance, and nobody had the guts to let them prove that.
Another comment about the bowl, and this is about the names. My longtime readers will know that I do not favor the application of corporate sponsors to the names of the bowls, especially the newer bowls that have no other name than the corporate sponsor. This year we see the result, as some bowl have different sponsors, including the former Insight (nee Insight.com) Bowl, now named for Buffalo Wild Wings, and the Russell Athletic Bowl, formerly the Champs Sports Bowl. The Champs Sports Bowl used to be the Florida Citrus Bowl, and so I return to that title. For others, since most of the newer bowl games that include a name other than their sponsor names the location of the bowl (rather than the name of the original stadium, like the Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl, Rose Bowl, etc. of old), so I will be naming those bowls accordingly, to help maintain consistency across years.
New Mexico Bowl, sponsored by Gildan - Dec 15, Albuquerque, NM
Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Arizona Wildcats (7-5) : The first bowl game has a very interesting match-up. Conference snobs will immediately pick Arizona, figuring that no team from the so-called "lesser" conferences could be competitive. However, plenty of examples from previous years disprove that. Arizona has been inconsistent this season, switching between good games and bad games. Nevada, for the most part, has been a potent opponent. Furthermore, I suspect the Wildcat students will underestimate the Wolf Pack. NEVADA by four
Humanitarian Bowl, sponsored by Famous Idaho Potatoes -- Dec 15, Boise, ID
Toledo Rockets (9-3) v #17 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : This one won't be as close as its predecessor. The Aggies were a strong team, and not just within the WAC. Utah State pounded on, and sometimes clobbered, competition from the larger conferences. Toledo's MAC conference mates frustrated teams from both the Big East and Big Ten, but both conferences were down a bit this year. Utah State will roll. UTAH STATE by 20
Poinsettia Bowl, sponsored by the San Diego County Credit Union -- Dec 20, San Diego, CA
BYU Cougars (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) : The Aztecs battled for the Mountain West title for a while this season. BYU knows how tough that can be, as they played in that conference for a few years. Given San Diego's greater success, I have to favor them. The home crowd won't hurt, either. SAN DIEGO STATE by eleven
St Petersburg Bowl, sponsored by Beef O' Bradys -- Dec 21, St Petersburg, FL
UCF Golden Knights (9-4) v Ball State Cardinals (9-3) : Ball State was a nuisance team to both MAC and non-MAC opponents, so I like their chances. However, this game is played in Florida, and those Floridians seem to inspire their teams to greater heights. I predict a late fourth quarter comeback for the Knights. UCF by three
New Orleans Bowl, sponsored by R&L Carriers -- Dec 22, New Orleans, LA
East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4) : If we have learned one thing from 2012, it's that those Sun Belt teams have matured into a real force. The Pirates have a good defense, but I have to favor the Ragin Cajuns, spurred by rapid locals. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by nine
Las Vegas Bowl, sponsored by MAACO -- Dec 22, Las Vegas, NV
Washington Huskies (7-5) v #10 Boise State Bronocs (10-2) : Once again the Broncos draw the short end of the bowl stick, but at least they are given an opponent that they can drive into the turf. BOISE STATE by 23
Hawaii Bowl, sponsored by Sheraton Hotels -- Dec 24, Honolulu, HI
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) v SMU Mustangs (6-6) : Geez, if this game were two weeks later I could attend this game! Ah well, it's probably just as well, as this game is likely to be one-sided, as many recent Hawaii bowls have been. SMU is an okay team, but the Bulldogs will just slaughter them. FRESNO STATE by 21
Detroit Bowl, sponsored by Little Caesars Pizza -- Dec 26, Detroit, MI
Called the "Cherry Bowl" many years ago (a name which I thought was the pits -- pun intended), it was called the Detroit Bowl for a couple of years, and I return that designation to a town sorely in need of attention and respect.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) v Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) : I apologize in advance to the Michigan fans, and I know they have been waiting for the Chippewas to make it to a bowl game, but they really don't belong. Here is one place Louisiana Tech could have been placed, but the bowl does have an agreement with the MAC. Regardless, the Chippewas are outgunned, and no amount of home state spirit can generate a win, although it might help keep the game from getting out of hand. WESTERN KENTUCKY by 13
Military Bowl, sponsored by Northrop Grumman -- Dec 27, Washington DC
#19 San Jose State Spartans (10-2) v Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) : Whoops, this one seems a bit one-sided. While records can sometimes be deceptive, that isn't the case for the Spartans. San Jose State was a strong team this season. Bowling Green was not one of the strongest MAC teams, although they did have occasional flashes of brilliance. They might threaten the Spartans early, but it won't last. SAN JOSE STATE by 23
Charlotte Bowl, sponsored by Belk -- Dec 27, Charlotte, NC
This bowl has an interesting history. They were created as the Meineke Car Care Bowl, never having another name. When Meineke switched sponsorship to the Texas Bowl in 2011, Belk picked it up. I don't know how long this sponsorship will last, so this bowl definitely needed a different name. Since it has always been played in Charlotte's Bank of America stadium, no matter who sponsored it, they gain the modern trend of locale named bowls.
Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (6-6) : I love the fact that Duke became bowl eligible this year, and some teams who have had long bowl droughts have made the most of that opportunity, gaining upset victories. Duke could do that, as Cincy has played some stinky games this season, but I think the Bearcats will play well enough to win. CINCINNATI by eleven
Holiday Bowl, sponsored by Bridgeport Education -- Dec 27, San Diego, CA
Baylor Bears (7-5) v #18 UCLA Bruins (9-4) : New sponsor, same history of hosting high octane offenses. This year, that includes only Baylor. While the Bruins are capable of scoring some points, the Bears are a high potency offense. Their defense has holes, though, and the Bruins have the better defense. I'd love to pick UCLA, but I have yet to pick an upset by record (I'm sure the Ragin Cajuns will actually be the underdog, despite the better record, and Utah State might even find themselves in that category). Upsets are common in these earlier bowls, so I need one. BAYLOR by eight
Independence Bowl, sponsored by AdvoCare V!00 -- Dec 28, Shreveport, LA
Ohio Bobcat (8-4) v Louisiana-Monroe Indians (8-4) : The Indians will likely be the underdog, but they scared teams from the larger conferences this season. They are powerful, likely more so than Ohio. This one could go either way, but I'll pick the Indians, especially since they'll have the friendly crowd. LOUISIANA-MONROE by six
Florida Citrus Bowl, sponsored by Russell Athletic -- Dec 28, Orlando, FL
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : The Hokies are frequently a tough bowl team, but they don't have the same power that they've had in previous years. Rutgers sputtered sometimes, and if they do that in the bowl, the Hokies will pester them, but I have to think Rutgers will play well enough to win. RUTGERS by nine
Texas Bowl, sponsored by Meineke Car Care -- Dec 28, Houston, TX
Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) : The first Big Ten team appears, but has to face a strong offense in their home state. The Gophers defense isn't that good, and their offense won't be able to keep pace. TEXAS TECH by 13
Armed Forces Bowl, sponsored by Bell Helicopter -- Dec 29, Fort Worth, TX
Rice Owls (6-6) v Air Force Falcons (6-6) : Don't let the 6-6 records turn you away from this bowl. This one might be the closest one yet. Air Force, normally an aerial assault, has a decent running game. Rice has more balance, but they prefer short passes. Both teams like long drives on offense. Neither defense is especially fast, but they cover and tackle well. In terms of the intangibles, Rice will have plenty of fans, since the school is located in Texas, but the Air Force will have a very friendly crowd, too. There is also incentive for the Falcons to win a bowl dedicated to our nation's armed forces. This will be close, but I'll give an edge to Air Force, who has a better bowl record than Rice. AIR FORCE by two
Pinstripe Bowl, sponsored by New Era -- Dec 29, Bronx, NY
West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5) v Syracuse Orange (7-5) : The only bowl in the northeast hosts a team from upstate New York. Unfortunately, I don't think the notoriously testy New York city fans will have patience for the Syracuse game, especially when they fall behind. The Mountaineers have a potent offense. That offense lost some of its edge as the season waned, but they should have it back for the bowl game. WEST VIRGINIA by 26
Fight Hunger Bowl, sponsored by Kraft Foods -- Dec 29, San Francisco, CA
Navy Midshipmen (8-4) v Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) : Despite the lower record, the Sun Devils won't be the underdog in this game. Indeed they shouldn't. Navy is good, but they are almost exclusively a running team, and they don't even have the best running attack in the nation. The Sun Devils bedeviled some opponents this year. Granted, they weren't as dynamic offensively or as dominate statistically as they have been, but they have a strong enough offense to score more than Navy. ARIZONA STATE by 12
Alamo Bowl, sponsored by Valero -- Dec 29, San Antonio, TX
Texas Longhorns (8-4) v #25 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) : This might be the most exciting match-up so far in the bowls. Both teams have strong offenses, sturdy defenses, and have fought hard against tough opponents. Win or lose, both teams were constantly a threat this season. This will be a classic chess match, with each team trying to out-think the other, and reacting to each move their opponent makes. The lead will likely change several times. In the end, I like Texas pulling this one out, but the Beavers will be a challenge. TEXAS by four
Tempe Bowl, sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings -- Dec 29, Tempe, AZ
The former Insight bowl gains a new sponsor. While I doubt Buffalo Wild Wings will fold, and they seem committed to sponsoring football, we've seen enough "sponsor roulette" to assign the location of this bowl to this game.
TCU Horned Frogs (7-5) v Michigan State Spartans (6-6) : This is the second of three Big XII v Big Ten contests, and I'm picking the Big XII in all of them. The Big XII was a strong conference this season, while the Big Ten was not. The Spartans can be tricky, and they may keep the score close (assisted by a weaker TCU defense), but the Horned Frogs offense is just too good. TCU by six
On my rankings, I will favor Louisiana Tech. No matter how many upsets occur, and how many teams could move into the Top 25, the Bulldogs will remain in my final Top 25. They deserve it for their excellent performance, and nobody had the guts to let them prove that.
Another comment about the bowl, and this is about the names. My longtime readers will know that I do not favor the application of corporate sponsors to the names of the bowls, especially the newer bowls that have no other name than the corporate sponsor. This year we see the result, as some bowl have different sponsors, including the former Insight (nee Insight.com) Bowl, now named for Buffalo Wild Wings, and the Russell Athletic Bowl, formerly the Champs Sports Bowl. The Champs Sports Bowl used to be the Florida Citrus Bowl, and so I return to that title. For others, since most of the newer bowl games that include a name other than their sponsor names the location of the bowl (rather than the name of the original stadium, like the Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl, Rose Bowl, etc. of old), so I will be naming those bowls accordingly, to help maintain consistency across years.
New Mexico Bowl, sponsored by Gildan - Dec 15, Albuquerque, NM
Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) v Arizona Wildcats (7-5) : The first bowl game has a very interesting match-up. Conference snobs will immediately pick Arizona, figuring that no team from the so-called "lesser" conferences could be competitive. However, plenty of examples from previous years disprove that. Arizona has been inconsistent this season, switching between good games and bad games. Nevada, for the most part, has been a potent opponent. Furthermore, I suspect the Wildcat students will underestimate the Wolf Pack. NEVADA by four
Humanitarian Bowl, sponsored by Famous Idaho Potatoes -- Dec 15, Boise, ID
Toledo Rockets (9-3) v #17 Utah State Aggies (10-2) : This one won't be as close as its predecessor. The Aggies were a strong team, and not just within the WAC. Utah State pounded on, and sometimes clobbered, competition from the larger conferences. Toledo's MAC conference mates frustrated teams from both the Big East and Big Ten, but both conferences were down a bit this year. Utah State will roll. UTAH STATE by 20
Poinsettia Bowl, sponsored by the San Diego County Credit Union -- Dec 20, San Diego, CA
BYU Cougars (7-5) v San Diego State Aztecs (9-3) : The Aztecs battled for the Mountain West title for a while this season. BYU knows how tough that can be, as they played in that conference for a few years. Given San Diego's greater success, I have to favor them. The home crowd won't hurt, either. SAN DIEGO STATE by eleven
St Petersburg Bowl, sponsored by Beef O' Bradys -- Dec 21, St Petersburg, FL
UCF Golden Knights (9-4) v Ball State Cardinals (9-3) : Ball State was a nuisance team to both MAC and non-MAC opponents, so I like their chances. However, this game is played in Florida, and those Floridians seem to inspire their teams to greater heights. I predict a late fourth quarter comeback for the Knights. UCF by three
New Orleans Bowl, sponsored by R&L Carriers -- Dec 22, New Orleans, LA
East Carolina Pirates (8-4) v Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (8-4) : If we have learned one thing from 2012, it's that those Sun Belt teams have matured into a real force. The Pirates have a good defense, but I have to favor the Ragin Cajuns, spurred by rapid locals. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by nine
Las Vegas Bowl, sponsored by MAACO -- Dec 22, Las Vegas, NV
Washington Huskies (7-5) v #10 Boise State Bronocs (10-2) : Once again the Broncos draw the short end of the bowl stick, but at least they are given an opponent that they can drive into the turf. BOISE STATE by 23
Hawaii Bowl, sponsored by Sheraton Hotels -- Dec 24, Honolulu, HI
#20 Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) v SMU Mustangs (6-6) : Geez, if this game were two weeks later I could attend this game! Ah well, it's probably just as well, as this game is likely to be one-sided, as many recent Hawaii bowls have been. SMU is an okay team, but the Bulldogs will just slaughter them. FRESNO STATE by 21
Detroit Bowl, sponsored by Little Caesars Pizza -- Dec 26, Detroit, MI
Called the "Cherry Bowl" many years ago (a name which I thought was the pits -- pun intended), it was called the Detroit Bowl for a couple of years, and I return that designation to a town sorely in need of attention and respect.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) v Central Michigan Chippewas (6-6) : I apologize in advance to the Michigan fans, and I know they have been waiting for the Chippewas to make it to a bowl game, but they really don't belong. Here is one place Louisiana Tech could have been placed, but the bowl does have an agreement with the MAC. Regardless, the Chippewas are outgunned, and no amount of home state spirit can generate a win, although it might help keep the game from getting out of hand. WESTERN KENTUCKY by 13
Military Bowl, sponsored by Northrop Grumman -- Dec 27, Washington DC
#19 San Jose State Spartans (10-2) v Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) : Whoops, this one seems a bit one-sided. While records can sometimes be deceptive, that isn't the case for the Spartans. San Jose State was a strong team this season. Bowling Green was not one of the strongest MAC teams, although they did have occasional flashes of brilliance. They might threaten the Spartans early, but it won't last. SAN JOSE STATE by 23
Charlotte Bowl, sponsored by Belk -- Dec 27, Charlotte, NC
This bowl has an interesting history. They were created as the Meineke Car Care Bowl, never having another name. When Meineke switched sponsorship to the Texas Bowl in 2011, Belk picked it up. I don't know how long this sponsorship will last, so this bowl definitely needed a different name. Since it has always been played in Charlotte's Bank of America stadium, no matter who sponsored it, they gain the modern trend of locale named bowls.
Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) v Duke Blue Devils (6-6) : I love the fact that Duke became bowl eligible this year, and some teams who have had long bowl droughts have made the most of that opportunity, gaining upset victories. Duke could do that, as Cincy has played some stinky games this season, but I think the Bearcats will play well enough to win. CINCINNATI by eleven
Holiday Bowl, sponsored by Bridgeport Education -- Dec 27, San Diego, CA
Baylor Bears (7-5) v #18 UCLA Bruins (9-4) : New sponsor, same history of hosting high octane offenses. This year, that includes only Baylor. While the Bruins are capable of scoring some points, the Bears are a high potency offense. Their defense has holes, though, and the Bruins have the better defense. I'd love to pick UCLA, but I have yet to pick an upset by record (I'm sure the Ragin Cajuns will actually be the underdog, despite the better record, and Utah State might even find themselves in that category). Upsets are common in these earlier bowls, so I need one. BAYLOR by eight
Independence Bowl, sponsored by AdvoCare V!00 -- Dec 28, Shreveport, LA
Ohio Bobcat (8-4) v Louisiana-Monroe Indians (8-4) : The Indians will likely be the underdog, but they scared teams from the larger conferences this season. They are powerful, likely more so than Ohio. This one could go either way, but I'll pick the Indians, especially since they'll have the friendly crowd. LOUISIANA-MONROE by six
Florida Citrus Bowl, sponsored by Russell Athletic -- Dec 28, Orlando, FL
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3) v Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) : The Hokies are frequently a tough bowl team, but they don't have the same power that they've had in previous years. Rutgers sputtered sometimes, and if they do that in the bowl, the Hokies will pester them, but I have to think Rutgers will play well enough to win. RUTGERS by nine
Texas Bowl, sponsored by Meineke Car Care -- Dec 28, Houston, TX
Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6) v Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) : The first Big Ten team appears, but has to face a strong offense in their home state. The Gophers defense isn't that good, and their offense won't be able to keep pace. TEXAS TECH by 13
Armed Forces Bowl, sponsored by Bell Helicopter -- Dec 29, Fort Worth, TX
Rice Owls (6-6) v Air Force Falcons (6-6) : Don't let the 6-6 records turn you away from this bowl. This one might be the closest one yet. Air Force, normally an aerial assault, has a decent running game. Rice has more balance, but they prefer short passes. Both teams like long drives on offense. Neither defense is especially fast, but they cover and tackle well. In terms of the intangibles, Rice will have plenty of fans, since the school is located in Texas, but the Air Force will have a very friendly crowd, too. There is also incentive for the Falcons to win a bowl dedicated to our nation's armed forces. This will be close, but I'll give an edge to Air Force, who has a better bowl record than Rice. AIR FORCE by two
Pinstripe Bowl, sponsored by New Era -- Dec 29, Bronx, NY
West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5) v Syracuse Orange (7-5) : The only bowl in the northeast hosts a team from upstate New York. Unfortunately, I don't think the notoriously testy New York city fans will have patience for the Syracuse game, especially when they fall behind. The Mountaineers have a potent offense. That offense lost some of its edge as the season waned, but they should have it back for the bowl game. WEST VIRGINIA by 26
Fight Hunger Bowl, sponsored by Kraft Foods -- Dec 29, San Francisco, CA
Navy Midshipmen (8-4) v Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) : Despite the lower record, the Sun Devils won't be the underdog in this game. Indeed they shouldn't. Navy is good, but they are almost exclusively a running team, and they don't even have the best running attack in the nation. The Sun Devils bedeviled some opponents this year. Granted, they weren't as dynamic offensively or as dominate statistically as they have been, but they have a strong enough offense to score more than Navy. ARIZONA STATE by 12
Alamo Bowl, sponsored by Valero -- Dec 29, San Antonio, TX
Texas Longhorns (8-4) v #25 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) : This might be the most exciting match-up so far in the bowls. Both teams have strong offenses, sturdy defenses, and have fought hard against tough opponents. Win or lose, both teams were constantly a threat this season. This will be a classic chess match, with each team trying to out-think the other, and reacting to each move their opponent makes. The lead will likely change several times. In the end, I like Texas pulling this one out, but the Beavers will be a challenge. TEXAS by four
Tempe Bowl, sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings -- Dec 29, Tempe, AZ
The former Insight bowl gains a new sponsor. While I doubt Buffalo Wild Wings will fold, and they seem committed to sponsoring football, we've seen enough "sponsor roulette" to assign the location of this bowl to this game.
TCU Horned Frogs (7-5) v Michigan State Spartans (6-6) : This is the second of three Big XII v Big Ten contests, and I'm picking the Big XII in all of them. The Big XII was a strong conference this season, while the Big Ten was not. The Spartans can be tricky, and they may keep the score close (assisted by a weaker TCU defense), but the Horned Frogs offense is just too good. TCU by six
Sunday, December 9, 2012
FCS 2012 Semis and finals
It was an interesting weekend for the Football Championship Subdivision. The closest game was a defensive battle, and two upsets occurred. I'll now pick the semi-finals, and pick the final result based upon any of the possible scenarios.
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Bearkats shocked Montana State to advance to the semi-finals, but I don't think they have the power to beat the offensive strength of Eastern Washington. EASTERN WASHINGTON by eight
#5 Georgia Southern Eagles at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The Eagles have a strong offense, but I don't think it's strong enough to surpass the stout Bison defense. The Eagles might pull off the upset, and make it an "all Eagle" final, but the Bison defense is a pretty heft obstacle to overcome. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by seven
Matchups for Championship Game
So how do I see the final game ending up? If North Dakota State gets past Georgia Southern, I don't think either winner of the other game stands a chance against them.
So what if Georgia Southern wins? Their offense will definitely dominate Sam Houston State. Eastern Washington would be an interesting opponent. Both of these teams have strong offenses and decent defenses. but both rely more on their offense. Who would win that contest? I'd pick Georgia Southern by two, for two reasons: their championship experience, and a slightly better defense.
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles: The Bearkats shocked Montana State to advance to the semi-finals, but I don't think they have the power to beat the offensive strength of Eastern Washington. EASTERN WASHINGTON by eight
#5 Georgia Southern Eagles at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The Eagles have a strong offense, but I don't think it's strong enough to surpass the stout Bison defense. The Eagles might pull off the upset, and make it an "all Eagle" final, but the Bison defense is a pretty heft obstacle to overcome. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by seven
Matchups for Championship Game
So how do I see the final game ending up? If North Dakota State gets past Georgia Southern, I don't think either winner of the other game stands a chance against them.
So what if Georgia Southern wins? Their offense will definitely dominate Sam Houston State. Eastern Washington would be an interesting opponent. Both of these teams have strong offenses and decent defenses. but both rely more on their offense. Who would win that contest? I'd pick Georgia Southern by two, for two reasons: their championship experience, and a slightly better defense.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 14 picks
I didn't have such luck last week, although there were still plenty of victorious road teams. Let's see how well I recover this week.
Thursday night: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are playing for seed, so they won't slack off despite winning their division. Besides, they don't like the Raiders, and they'd like nothing more than beating them. Road teams have done well on Thursday Night Football this season, so I think they should prevail. With the Raiders porous defense, Peyton Manning may throw for another three touchdowns and 300 yards. BRONCOS, 33-20
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: A win here practically guarantees the top seed for the Falcons. More importantly, they want to get a stronger victory to build confidence going into the playoffs, where Matt Ryan and company have struggled. FALCONS, 27-17
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: RGIII and the Redskins could shock the Ravens, but I'll give a slight edge to the Ravens defense. This game will be WAAAYYY too close for comfort, though. RAVENS, 24-23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: After a tough loss against the Seahawks, the Bears want a strong divisional win to boost their playoff standing. They will shut down Christian Ponder, and they pretty much stuffed Adrian Peterson in their earlier bout this season. BEARS, 23-20
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Welcome to December, Dallas. This has been a troubling month for Tony Romo. While I think he has shaken that curse, I don't think they'll win here. The Cowboys are still too inconsistent to believe in, and the Bengals offense is clicking. BENGALS, 27-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: The worst team in football comes into Cleveland and keeps the Browns' slim playoff hopes alive. BROWNS, 23-17
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jets had a chance for a strong victory last week, and hobbled to a 7-6 win. This time, I think Chad Henne breaks them up and smoothly runs the field. He's faced the Jets before, when he led the Dolphins offense, and I think that experience will help him here. JAGUARS, 26-23
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs are battling to stay in the playoff hunt. Given how the Eagles are playing, they get the win they need to remain in contention. BUCS, 27-20
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers found new life by beating the Ravens last week. Their rejuvenated defense could give San Diego problems, too. Big Ben may be back for this game, so the offense might get a boost, too. STEELERS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: The Rams have been a force the past few weeks. Both of these teams are capable of big performances, but I think the Rams have shown more consistency recently. RAMS, 24-23
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are hoping for a Redskins upset, so that this win can move them one step closer to surprising the Texans and capturing an unexpected division crown. COLTS, 27-20
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle wants to hold onto their sixth place position in the NFC. A victory over struggling Arizona would do a good job. Russell Wilson has this offense working, so I think that victory is pretty secure. SEAHAWKS, 23-16
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers need to wash off the stink of the overtime loss to St Louis, so beating on the Dolphins seems like a good way to do that. 49ERS, 23-16
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: The Saints have the ability and talent to win this game, especially after the poor showing on Monday Night Football by the Giants. However, this is the time of year when the Giants get sharper and tougher. I'll pick them, but the Saints could pull this one out. GIANTS, 26-23
Sunday night: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: The Pack will know if they need a win to remain ahead of the Bears for the NFC North title. I don't think it'll matter, because I don't think the Lions will win anyway. PACK, 28-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Here's my upset pick of the week! The Texans' defense hasn't faced an offense like this, and that vaulted defense has been tested in recent weeks. I think the Pats offense will overwhelm them, helping the Colts and also boosting New England's hopes for the top seed. PATRIOTS, 30-23
Thursday night: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are playing for seed, so they won't slack off despite winning their division. Besides, they don't like the Raiders, and they'd like nothing more than beating them. Road teams have done well on Thursday Night Football this season, so I think they should prevail. With the Raiders porous defense, Peyton Manning may throw for another three touchdowns and 300 yards. BRONCOS, 33-20
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: A win here practically guarantees the top seed for the Falcons. More importantly, they want to get a stronger victory to build confidence going into the playoffs, where Matt Ryan and company have struggled. FALCONS, 27-17
Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: RGIII and the Redskins could shock the Ravens, but I'll give a slight edge to the Ravens defense. This game will be WAAAYYY too close for comfort, though. RAVENS, 24-23
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: After a tough loss against the Seahawks, the Bears want a strong divisional win to boost their playoff standing. They will shut down Christian Ponder, and they pretty much stuffed Adrian Peterson in their earlier bout this season. BEARS, 23-20
Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Welcome to December, Dallas. This has been a troubling month for Tony Romo. While I think he has shaken that curse, I don't think they'll win here. The Cowboys are still too inconsistent to believe in, and the Bengals offense is clicking. BENGALS, 27-23
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: The worst team in football comes into Cleveland and keeps the Browns' slim playoff hopes alive. BROWNS, 23-17
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jets had a chance for a strong victory last week, and hobbled to a 7-6 win. This time, I think Chad Henne breaks them up and smoothly runs the field. He's faced the Jets before, when he led the Dolphins offense, and I think that experience will help him here. JAGUARS, 26-23
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs are battling to stay in the playoff hunt. Given how the Eagles are playing, they get the win they need to remain in contention. BUCS, 27-20
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers found new life by beating the Ravens last week. Their rejuvenated defense could give San Diego problems, too. Big Ben may be back for this game, so the offense might get a boost, too. STEELERS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: The Rams have been a force the past few weeks. Both of these teams are capable of big performances, but I think the Rams have shown more consistency recently. RAMS, 24-23
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are hoping for a Redskins upset, so that this win can move them one step closer to surprising the Texans and capturing an unexpected division crown. COLTS, 27-20
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle wants to hold onto their sixth place position in the NFC. A victory over struggling Arizona would do a good job. Russell Wilson has this offense working, so I think that victory is pretty secure. SEAHAWKS, 23-16
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers need to wash off the stink of the overtime loss to St Louis, so beating on the Dolphins seems like a good way to do that. 49ERS, 23-16
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: The Saints have the ability and talent to win this game, especially after the poor showing on Monday Night Football by the Giants. However, this is the time of year when the Giants get sharper and tougher. I'll pick them, but the Saints could pull this one out. GIANTS, 26-23
Sunday night: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: The Pack will know if they need a win to remain ahead of the Bears for the NFC North title. I don't think it'll matter, because I don't think the Lions will win anyway. PACK, 28-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Here's my upset pick of the week! The Texans' defense hasn't faced an offense like this, and that vaulted defense has been tested in recent weeks. I think the Pats offense will overwhelm them, helping the Colts and also boosting New England's hopes for the top seed. PATRIOTS, 30-23
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
NFL 2012 Week 13 Power rankings
Surprisingly, the teams in the top half of the league didn't change much, although their positions shifted a bit. The Giants didn't seem to fix their offensive woes after all, and Baltimore stumbled against Pittsburgh. In fact, it wasn't a great week for divisional leaders, although three division titles were crowned.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (11-1) [1] : They were happy to play a normal four-quarter game
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-1) [5] : The only NFC division crown was won by this team, who smothered the Saints offense on Thursday
3. New England Patriots (9-3) [3] : They didn't score as much as I thought, but they still surpassed Miami to capture the division
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [6] : Owners of the third division title, their offense ran ripshod over the Bucs
5. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) [2] They have a losing record against divisional opponent St Louis
6. Chicago Bears (8-4) [4] : They couldn't put away Seattle in regulation, and then couldn't stop them in overtime
7. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) [7] : They fell to a Charlie Batch-led Steelers team. WHOOPS!
8. New York Giants (7-5) [8] : They are lucky teams around them fell, as they couldn't hold back RGIII and the Redskins
9. Green Bay Packers (8-4) [11] : It wasn't pretty, but sometimes a win is a win
10. Seattle Seahawks (7-5) [10] : Their conquest of the Bears in overtime and the 49ers' loss puts them back in the division title hunt, and strongly holding the second wildcard spot
11. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) [12] : They beat San Diego in a more defensive battle (yup, you read THAT right!) to move two games back from Baltimore
12. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-6) [9] : They may not have been able to stop Denver's offense, but their own offense showed up well
13. Washington Redskins (6-6) [13] : A one-point win over the Giants, and a staunch red zone defense that forced New York to kick three field goals, puts the Redskins in pouncing distance of the division title
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) [14] : Nice win over the Ravens to return to .500
15. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [18] : They are preventing Houston from capturing the division title too soon, as their winning streak now stands at six games.
16. Minnesota Vikings (6-6) [17] : They're still in the NFC wildcard hunt, but things look bleak
Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : They've held this spot nearly all season, but their grip is slipping. The Vikings are falling, the Lions can't get a run going, and Chicago has lost three of their last four.
2. AFC North [2] : They're ready to take the lead, as they are the only division with three teams with positive point differentials. Unless Minnesota wins by ten or Detroit by 18, that will remain
3. NFC South [2] : Falls by the Saints and Bucs have made this division more vulnerable, but fortunately there is considerable space between them and Number 4...
4. NFC West [4] : The race for the division title is tightening, and even St Louis is in the wildcard hunt
5. NFC East [5] : They completely played within the division this week, so we can't really draw comparisons with other divisions. Washington and Dallas are improving, though, so that looks promising
6. AFC East [6] : The Jets won a baseball score (7-6) while the Bills nearly doubled up on Jacksonville. There is some power left in this division after all!
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy continue to find it hard to compensate for Tennessee and Jacksonville
8. AFC West [8] : Denver has won the division, and will likely be the only playoff team from this division
Divisional races
The AFC East, AFC West, and NFC South are clinched, but playoff berths are still the question. I'll add those after the divisions.
AFC North: Baltimore leads by two, but they have tough opponents for their next three games (Washington, Denver, and the Giants). Cincy has it easier, with Dallas, Philly, and Pittsburgh. The Bengals could capture the lead going into their season-ending showdown with the Ravens.
AFC South Houston leads by three, but they have New England next and still face the Colts twice. If they beat Indy at home in the first meeting, they can clinch the division.
NFC East: The Redskins tightened this race on Monday night, as New York leads by just a game. The Redskins actually have the best divisional record, so a win and a Giants loss gives them the lead. Washington plays Baltimore this week, though, so that may not be easy. Next week the Giants have Atlanta, though, so the Redskins could capture the division lead next week.
NFC North: Green Bay holds the tiebreaker over Chicago, and the Bears have some tough games ahead. This division title has gained importance, as the 49ers loss means this division winner could capture the Number Two seed. The Pack has the easier schedule, so look for them to win the division.
NFC West: San Fran still leads, but it's down to a game and a half. With games against Miami and Arizona remaining, they just need to have Seattle lose one, or beat Seattle in two weeks, to clinch.
AFC Seeds: Houston leads the race for Number One by two games, but the Patriots are now the favorite for Number Two. Denver could jump to Number Three, leaving the AFC North winner as Number Four. The Colts are the likely Number Five (and two more wins should clinch that) while Cincy and Pittsburgh are battling for Number Six.
NFC Seeds: Atlanta seems the likely top seed, leading San Fran by two and a half and the NFC North leaders by three. Green Bay is likely to win three of their last four, forcing San Fran to win three if they want Number Two. The NFC East winner is the likely Number Four, while Chicago leads the race for Number Five. Seattle leads for Number Six, but if they stumble, the NFC East runner-up might capture it. Tampa is also a possibility, but they are playing like they want to give it away.
Top half of the league [Last week's position]
1. Houston Texans (11-1) [1] : They were happy to play a normal four-quarter game
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-1) [5] : The only NFC division crown was won by this team, who smothered the Saints offense on Thursday
3. New England Patriots (9-3) [3] : They didn't score as much as I thought, but they still surpassed Miami to capture the division
4. Denver Broncos (9-3) [6] : Owners of the third division title, their offense ran ripshod over the Bucs
5. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) [2] They have a losing record against divisional opponent St Louis
6. Chicago Bears (8-4) [4] : They couldn't put away Seattle in regulation, and then couldn't stop them in overtime
7. Baltimore Ravens (9-3) [7] : They fell to a Charlie Batch-led Steelers team. WHOOPS!
8. New York Giants (7-5) [8] : They are lucky teams around them fell, as they couldn't hold back RGIII and the Redskins
9. Green Bay Packers (8-4) [11] : It wasn't pretty, but sometimes a win is a win
10. Seattle Seahawks (7-5) [10] : Their conquest of the Bears in overtime and the 49ers' loss puts them back in the division title hunt, and strongly holding the second wildcard spot
11. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) [12] : They beat San Diego in a more defensive battle (yup, you read THAT right!) to move two games back from Baltimore
12. Tampa Bay Bucs (6-6) [9] : They may not have been able to stop Denver's offense, but their own offense showed up well
13. Washington Redskins (6-6) [13] : A one-point win over the Giants, and a staunch red zone defense that forced New York to kick three field goals, puts the Redskins in pouncing distance of the division title
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) [14] : Nice win over the Ravens to return to .500
15. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) [18] : They are preventing Houston from capturing the division title too soon, as their winning streak now stands at six games.
16. Minnesota Vikings (6-6) [17] : They're still in the NFC wildcard hunt, but things look bleak
Divisional Power Rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC North [1] : They've held this spot nearly all season, but their grip is slipping. The Vikings are falling, the Lions can't get a run going, and Chicago has lost three of their last four.
2. AFC North [2] : They're ready to take the lead, as they are the only division with three teams with positive point differentials. Unless Minnesota wins by ten or Detroit by 18, that will remain
3. NFC South [2] : Falls by the Saints and Bucs have made this division more vulnerable, but fortunately there is considerable space between them and Number 4...
4. NFC West [4] : The race for the division title is tightening, and even St Louis is in the wildcard hunt
5. NFC East [5] : They completely played within the division this week, so we can't really draw comparisons with other divisions. Washington and Dallas are improving, though, so that looks promising
6. AFC East [6] : The Jets won a baseball score (7-6) while the Bills nearly doubled up on Jacksonville. There is some power left in this division after all!
7. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy continue to find it hard to compensate for Tennessee and Jacksonville
8. AFC West [8] : Denver has won the division, and will likely be the only playoff team from this division
Divisional races
The AFC East, AFC West, and NFC South are clinched, but playoff berths are still the question. I'll add those after the divisions.
AFC North: Baltimore leads by two, but they have tough opponents for their next three games (Washington, Denver, and the Giants). Cincy has it easier, with Dallas, Philly, and Pittsburgh. The Bengals could capture the lead going into their season-ending showdown with the Ravens.
AFC South Houston leads by three, but they have New England next and still face the Colts twice. If they beat Indy at home in the first meeting, they can clinch the division.
NFC East: The Redskins tightened this race on Monday night, as New York leads by just a game. The Redskins actually have the best divisional record, so a win and a Giants loss gives them the lead. Washington plays Baltimore this week, though, so that may not be easy. Next week the Giants have Atlanta, though, so the Redskins could capture the division lead next week.
NFC North: Green Bay holds the tiebreaker over Chicago, and the Bears have some tough games ahead. This division title has gained importance, as the 49ers loss means this division winner could capture the Number Two seed. The Pack has the easier schedule, so look for them to win the division.
NFC West: San Fran still leads, but it's down to a game and a half. With games against Miami and Arizona remaining, they just need to have Seattle lose one, or beat Seattle in two weeks, to clinch.
AFC Seeds: Houston leads the race for Number One by two games, but the Patriots are now the favorite for Number Two. Denver could jump to Number Three, leaving the AFC North winner as Number Four. The Colts are the likely Number Five (and two more wins should clinch that) while Cincy and Pittsburgh are battling for Number Six.
NFC Seeds: Atlanta seems the likely top seed, leading San Fran by two and a half and the NFC North leaders by three. Green Bay is likely to win three of their last four, forcing San Fran to win three if they want Number Two. The NFC East winner is the likely Number Four, while Chicago leads the race for Number Five. Seattle leads for Number Six, but if they stumble, the NFC East runner-up might capture it. Tampa is also a possibility, but they are playing like they want to give it away.
Monday, December 3, 2012
NCAA 2012 pre-bowls Top 25
Some interesting results among the conference championships shook up the lower portion of the Top 25. Nebraska faced the biggest upset, being completely blown away by Wisconsin. That's kind of how the Badgers work. They struggle against an opponent, even lose, in the first meeting, but learn enough during that game to beat them the second time. Unfortunately, I think Nebraska would have done better against Stanford. While Wisconsin battled Oregon to the bitter end last year, I think Stanford has this Rose Bowl sewn up.
Bowl predictions will be provided in two different posts yet to come, but my picks for the FCS Championship appears at the end of this column.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [1]
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [2]
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) [3]
4. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [4]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [5] : Impressive game despite loss. They stayed at Number Five
6. Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) [6] : Struggled early against Texas, but took command in the second half
7. Florida Gators (11-1) [7]
8. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) [8]
9. Florida State Seminoles (11-2) [9] : Too close against Georgia Tech
10. LSU Tigers (10-2) [10]
11. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [12]
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [11]
13. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [13]
14. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) [14]
15. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) [15]
16. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [16]
17. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [17]
18. UCLA Bruins (9-4) [17] : Close loss to Stanford
19. San Jose State Spartans (10-2) [21] : Beneficiaries of losses by Nebraska and Kent State
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) [22]
21. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) [20]
22. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) [24] : UCF's loss helped them
23. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) [NR]
24. USC Trojans (7-5) [25]
25. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) [NR] : Although their point spread didn't count, the win advanced them over losses by UCF and Nebraska
On the Edge: This week, it is led by two conference winners: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3), Louisville Cardinals (10-2), Northwestern Wildcats (9-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3), Texas Longhorns (8-4), Wisconsin Badgers (8-5), North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), BYU Cougars (7-5), Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5)
Dropped: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#19], UCF Golden Knights [#23]
FCS Quarterfinals
Mostly all of the home teams won last week, which is unusual for the FCS Playoffs. More unusual, I think that streak will continue, as the top teams are very strong. I will make picks all the way to the National Championship, providing alternative matchups based on upsets.
#5 Georgia Southern Eagles at #4 Old Dominion Monarchs: Have to favor the one-loss Monarchs here. Yes, Georgia Southern has the experience, but Old Dominion has the offense. They scored 63 points against Coastal Carolina. Granted, Coastal's defense is not on the same level as Georgia Southern, so expect less scoring, but I still think the Monarchs will advance. OLD DOMINION by 13
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats at #3 Montana State Bobcats: Sam Houston scraped by Cal Poly, eliminating my upset pick, but I think Montana State's defense will hold them back. MONTANA STATE by ten
Illinois State Redbirds at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles: Half of the remaining teams come from the Missouri Valley and Big Sky conferences, and here is a game where those conferences battle each other. The Redbirds shocked Appalachian State in overtime by blocking the PAT that would have forced a second overtime period. I don't think this game will get into overtime. The Eagles are the stronger team, and they protect their players and the ball too much to let this one slip through their fingers. It may be close, though. EASTERN WASHINGTON by six
Wofford Terriers at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The two most dominant defenses of the playoffs face off, and it should be a fierce battle. Wofford has been in this situation before, so they have some idea how to win playoff games. North Dakota State has the talent, but can they continue to perform? The Missouri Valley was a tough conference this season and North Dakota came within three points of going unbeaten, so I have to favor them. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by four
Bowl predictions will be provided in two different posts yet to come, but my picks for the FCS Championship appears at the end of this column.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) [1]
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0) [2]
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) [3]
4. Oregon Ducks (11-1) [4]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) [5] : Impressive game despite loss. They stayed at Number Five
6. Kansas State Wildcats (11-1) [6] : Struggled early against Texas, but took command in the second half
7. Florida Gators (11-1) [7]
8. Texas A&M Aggies (10-2) [8]
9. Florida State Seminoles (11-2) [9] : Too close against Georgia Tech
10. LSU Tigers (10-2) [10]
11. Stanford Cardinal (11-2) [12]
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) [11]
13. Clemson Tigers (10-2) [13]
14. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) [14]
15. Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1) [15]
16. Boise State Broncos (10-2) [16]
17. Utah State Aggies (10-2) [17]
18. UCLA Bruins (9-4) [17] : Close loss to Stanford
19. San Jose State Spartans (10-2) [21] : Beneficiaries of losses by Nebraska and Kent State
20. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3) [22]
21. Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2) [20]
22. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (9-3) [24] : UCF's loss helped them
23. Michigan Wolverines (8-4) [NR]
24. USC Trojans (7-5) [25]
25. Oregon State Beavers (9-3) [NR] : Although their point spread didn't count, the win advanced them over losses by UCF and Nebraska
On the Edge: This week, it is led by two conference winners: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3), Louisville Cardinals (10-2), Northwestern Wildcats (9-3), Penn State Nittany Lions (8-4), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3), Texas Longhorns (8-4), Wisconsin Badgers (8-5), North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4), Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3), BYU Cougars (7-5), Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5)
Dropped: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#19], UCF Golden Knights [#23]
FCS Quarterfinals
Mostly all of the home teams won last week, which is unusual for the FCS Playoffs. More unusual, I think that streak will continue, as the top teams are very strong. I will make picks all the way to the National Championship, providing alternative matchups based on upsets.
#5 Georgia Southern Eagles at #4 Old Dominion Monarchs: Have to favor the one-loss Monarchs here. Yes, Georgia Southern has the experience, but Old Dominion has the offense. They scored 63 points against Coastal Carolina. Granted, Coastal's defense is not on the same level as Georgia Southern, so expect less scoring, but I still think the Monarchs will advance. OLD DOMINION by 13
#6 Sam Houston State Bearkats at #3 Montana State Bobcats: Sam Houston scraped by Cal Poly, eliminating my upset pick, but I think Montana State's defense will hold them back. MONTANA STATE by ten
Illinois State Redbirds at #2 Eastern Washington Eagles: Half of the remaining teams come from the Missouri Valley and Big Sky conferences, and here is a game where those conferences battle each other. The Redbirds shocked Appalachian State in overtime by blocking the PAT that would have forced a second overtime period. I don't think this game will get into overtime. The Eagles are the stronger team, and they protect their players and the ball too much to let this one slip through their fingers. It may be close, though. EASTERN WASHINGTON by six
Wofford Terriers at #1 North Dakota State Bison: The two most dominant defenses of the playoffs face off, and it should be a fierce battle. Wofford has been in this situation before, so they have some idea how to win playoff games. North Dakota State has the talent, but can they continue to perform? The Missouri Valley was a tough conference this season and North Dakota came within three points of going unbeaten, so I have to favor them. NORTH DAKOTA STATE by four
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