NCAA 2011: Week 1 picks

It's time to start the NCAA football season! I still need to do my NFL preview columns, but college football has always started before the pros. Instead of easing into it, as the NCAA has often done in the past, we get a nearly full slate of games this weekend (only the Ivy League delays their start). Since I don't have a Top 25 yet (and won't for two weeks, as too many teams play FCS schools this week), I'll examine games by teams I predicted to be in the top, as well as my home conference, Big Ten.

Thursday, Sept 1st

Montana State at Utah Utes: Montana State shared the Big Sky Conference title last year. They're good, but not good enough to overcome one of the most powerful teams in FBS. UTAH

New Hampshire at Toledo Rockets: The MAC plays the Big Ten tough, a Colonial Athletic team won't raise a sweat. TOLEDO

UC Davis at Arizona State Sun Devils: One of the top teams in the Pac-12 against a team that was Division II not long ago? This is one-sided contest. ARIZONA STATE

Friday, Sept 2nd

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears: We get two FBS teams, but still not much competition. Baylor may not end up at the bottom of the Big XII, but they won't stand long against the Horned Frogs. TCU

Saturday, Sept 3rd

Big Ten

Akron Zips at Ohio State Buckeyes: Although the MAC tends to play tough against the Big Ten, and Ohio State starts a string of five games without key returning starters, I think the Buckeyes can win this. It may be a very close game, much to the chagrin of Buckeye fans. OHIO STATE

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illini don't have much of a team this year, but the Red Wolves won't give them too much trouble. ILLINOIS

Chattanooga at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Now that the Cornhuskers are in the Big Ten, they need to upgrade the quality of their openers. NEBRASKA

Indiana Hoosiers at Ball State Cardinals: Although the Cardinals won't have a good season, they start with an interesting matchup. This game could go either way, although I'll give slight credit to the Hoosiers. Watch out for Ball State, a hard-fighting MAC team, though. INDIANA

Indiana State at Penn State Nittany Lions: Aside from the Nebraska game, likely the most one-sided game of the conference. PENN STATE

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Purdue Boilermakes: Like most of the conference, Purdue gets an easy opponent for their home opener. PURDUE

Minnesota Golden Gophers at USC Trojans: This is the game that spoils the perfect record for the Big Ten. USC doesn't have much to play for, but beating teams from their rival conference IS incentive. Minnesota doesn't have the depth or weapons to stand against the Trojans. USC

Northwestern Wildcats at Boston College Eagles: This game could also go against the Big Ten, but I'll favor the sheer tenacity and ferocity of the Wildcats. NORTHWESTERN in a squeaker

Tennessee Tech at Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes score an easy win, too. IOWA

UNLV Rebels at Wisconsin Badgers: UNLV removes the "Running" part of their team name, probably because their running game isn't much to brag about. Wisconsin's, on the hand, is very potent. WISCONSIN

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines: An in-state rivalry that could result in an upset (and thereby giving Brady Hoke a similar beginning to his term at Michigan as Rich Rodriguez had), but I'll give Hoke and the Wolverines a small edge. MICHIGAN

Youngstown State at Michigan State Spartans: Some Spartan bashers are predicting an upset, but Michigan State's success last year was no fluke. MICHIGAN STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU Tigers at Oregon Ducks: Both teams are competing for a chance to play in the BCS title game. The loser starts off behind in that race. LSU is the favorite of many national analysts, some predicting LSU could win it all. Their defense is traditionally stout, and QB Jordan Jefferson has been consistently a force. However, I don't think LSU has seen the kind of high-powered offense engineered by Oregon for a couple of years. OREGON

The Rest:

Army Black Knights at Northern Illinois Huskies: Army should have a good team this year, but the Huskies are a team battling for a conference title. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Boise State Broncos at Georgia Bulldogs: Boise looks to conquer new territory and take Utah's place as a perennial Mountain West favorite. Georgia hasn't been a tough team since the departure of Matt Stafford. BOISE STATE

Bowling Green Falcons at Idaho Vandals: How far have the Falcons fallen? How about the fact that I am NOT picking them? They are the favorite, but I think the Vandals could pull off the upset. IDAHO

BYU Cougars at Ole Miss Rebels: Sorry, Ole Miss fans, no upset here. BYU's move to Independent status may have been financially motivated, but it gives them more chances to play teams from BCS conferences. Unfortunately, Ole Miss won't really help their "strength of schedule" ranking. BYU

Fresno State Bulldogs at California Golden Bears: Cal may hope for an opening win, but Fresno State is a powerful team. Cal has lost some strength, so they're vulnerable. FRESNO STATE

Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators: Florida should win, but Schnellenberger's Owls may make it interesting. FLORIDA

Kent State Golden Flashes at Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama looks to position themselves for a high ranking by winning big, and they picked a good opponent to do that. ALABAMA

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys fast-paced offense will be too much for the Ragin' Cajuns. OKLAHOMA STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles return to an old habit of an easy non-conference schedule as they pulverize the Warhawks. FLORIDA STATE

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Missouri Tigers: The Tigers aren't as strong as they have been recently, but the Redhawks will still have a hard time. MISSOURI

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal: With the return of Andrew Luck, Stanford is a big favorite to make the BCS Championship Game. I'm not so sure, but Stanford will start with a win. STANFORD

South Carolina Gamecocks at East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates' mainstay, their defense, is down a bit this season, which gives the Gamecocks a farily easy game. SOUTH CAROLINA

South Florida Bulls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: If South Florida's defense was up to snuff this season, this could be a close game. Unfortunately, the Bulls are down this season, so the Irish have a victory. NOTRE DAME

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners: This should be a huge victory for the Sooners. OKLAHOMA

UCLA Bruins at Houston Cougars: Some people are taking about UCLA's possible resurgence this season. I don't think so. Houston, on the other hand, will be a strong team. HOUSTON

Utah State Aggies at Auburn Tigers: The Tigers begin their national title defense by slaughtering the WAC's perennial doormat. AUBURN

Appalachian State at Virgina Tech Hokies: No FBS upset for Appalachian this season. VIRGINIA TECH

Cal Poly at San Diego State Aztecs: Easy win for the Aztecs. SAN DIEGO

Missouri State at Arkansas Razorbacks: This easy win will give the impression that Arkansas is better than they are. The Razorbacks have talent, but they lost a lot, too. ARKANSAS

Sacramento State at Oregon State Beavers: Another easy victory that belies some of the weaknesses of the winning team. OREGON STATE

Texas State at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Another in-state FBS v FCS matchup that ends with a win for the home FBS team. TEXAS TECH

Sunday, Sept 4th

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers: It won't be a great year for the Big East, but West Virginia will be a force. WEST VIRGINIA

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies have all the pieces to make a run for the Big XII title. This win is the first step. TEXAS A&M

Monday, Sept 5th

Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins: Miami has troubled times ahead, and that's going to weigh heavily on them during the season. Maryland is strong enough to start Miami reeling. MARYLAND

NCAA 2011 Preview #3 - Best of the West

Welcome to the final regional preview for the 2011 college football season. We travel west to examine the expanded Pac-10 (now called the Pac-12), the Mountain West, and WAC.
Pac-12 North
1. Stanford Cardinal (8-1/11-1): The team retained most of their talent from last year, including QB Andrew Luck, but the loss of Coach Harbaugh hurts them. The man is an innovator; he can be beaten by a particular scheme once, but he'll find a way to beat it, either the following year or later in the same game. Without that, can Stanford continue to overwhelm? I'm not sure their opponents this year will throw too many surprises at them, and their schedule helps by giving them their toughest opponents at home.

2. Oregan Ducks (8-1/11-1): The Ducks return most of their starters from last year, as well. The areas that lost the most were the lines, both offensive and defensive. Rebuilding the lines makes their first game, against LSU, tricky. Even if they survive that one, I'm not sure they'll be fully prepared for Stanford.

3. Oregon State Beavers (5-4/6-6): The Beavers are a tough team, but they are suffering from a tough schedule. They'll probably upset an opponent or two, but it won't be enough to reach second place in this division. Like the Ducks, they need to rebuild both lines. They also need to build up an effective running game.

4. Washington Huskies (5-4/7-5): Their new quarterback, whoever that ends up being, has a great support staff behind and beside him. In front of him, though, is a weak offensive line. A solid defense will keep the Huskies in most games, but any team with a fast rushing defense will hold them back.

5. California Golden Bears (3-6/4-8): Whoever becomes the new quarterback will have a great corps of receivers catching his passes. The Bears have a strong offensive line, too, but it is uncertain how good their runners are. A rebuilt defense makes them susceptible to quick and talented offenses, which this conference has aplenty.

6. Washington State Cougars (1-8/3-9): This team has plenty of weaknesses. Their running offense is mostly ineffective, and both lines are weak. Their quarterback will be running for his life, and the secondary is too slow to stop opposing quarterbacks.

Pac-12 South
1. Utah Utes (9-0/12-0): A favorable schedule allows the Utes to avoid both Stanford and Oregon until the conference championship. The Utes are solid everywhere, but they are breaking in a new runner. I have a special message to their opponents -- watch out for Utah's special teams!

2. Arizona State Sun Devils (7-2/10-2): This is a strong team, they just face two stronger ones on the road.

3. USC Trojans (4-4/6-6): With no bowl game to play for, and a roster thin at key positions, they won't fight hard. USC has no pride now, their history of cheating is exposed. Without a physical prize to play for, the Trojans don't care.

4. Arizona Wildcats (3-5/4-8): A new offensive line and a thin backfield adds up to a weak running game. One-sided offenses don't usually go well. A strong defense may keep many of their games close, but most of those will end up losses.

5. UCLA Bruins (1-7/3-9): Goodbye, Rick Neuheisel. This job is on the line, and this may be his worst season at LA. He has no passing game to speak of, a poor defense, and an injury-prone offensive line. This eliminates any job security Neuheisel may hope for.

6. Colorado Buffaloes (1-7/2-10): This team lacks depth, and they won't be able to withstand the fierce attacks of opponents like Stanford and Oregon. Injuries suffered in those games will cost them winnable games later in the season.

Pac-12 Champion: Stanford Cardinal

Mountain West
1. Boise State Broncos (7-0/12-0): This team is strong everywhere except the kicking game. Somehow I'm not sure they'll need one.

2. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2/10-2): This is the Horned Frogs last year in the Mountain West, but they won't be able to repeat as conference champion. They are breaking in a new quarterback, Casey Pachall. He has great receivers but little running support. That means opposing defenses will force him into third and long situations. A stout defense will prevent Pachall from having to come from behind a large deficit, but it'll still be a tough challenge.

3. San Diego State Aztecs (5-2/9-3): Coach Brady Hoke went to Michigan, where he might engineer the Aztecs only non-conference loss when they meet this season. This team is strong at all positions, but they have an endurance problem. If they can improve their fourth-quarter performance, they could leap over the Frogs.

4. Air Force Falcons (5-2/9-3): A large number of returning starters has the Falcons looking food. Their challenge for 2011 is to reduce turnovers and play more consistently.

5. Colorado State Rams (3-4/5-7): A strong offensive line will protect their quarterback, but the Rams running game is suspect. A fast defense will hold down opponent's big plays, but the Rams won't have many themselves.

6. Wyoming Cowboys (2-5/4-8): Good runners, but a new quarterback and thin receiving corps keeps them grounded. Their starting defense is good, but they lack depth. If they receive injuries, their defense is finished.

7. New Mexico Lobos (1-6/3-9): An experienced quarterback and good receivers make for a strong passing game. Running game seems suspect. Nine starters return on defense, but last year this team had the worst defense in the conference, so defense is definitely their weak point.

8. UNLV Rebels (0-7/1-11): The Rebels lost their best offensive players in the off-season. This team has holes everywhere.

WAC
1. Hawaii Warriors (7-1/9-3): Hawaii with the best defense in the WAC? Yup. The Warriors have an experienced QB, but the rest of the offense is fairly new, so the normally highly productive offense may take some time to develop this year. A favorable schedule and that strong defense will give them the chance.

2. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-1/8-4): This is a strong team, but their schedule is brutal! They play the toughest Mountain West teams, and then face the Warriors in Hawaii.

3. Nevada Wolf Pack (4-4/6-6): The Wolf Pack suffered key losses on offense. A good defense keeps them in games, and that offense should improve as the season progresses.

4. Utah State Aggies (4-4/6-6): Coach Gary Anderson moved players around, hoping to speed up the defense and shape up the offense. I don't know if it will work, but I do know that it will take time for the players to adjust to their new positions.

5. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5/4-8): They have a decent running game, but a system of rotating quarterbacks makes their passing game suspect. A weak defense doesn't help their situation, either.

6. San Jose State Spartans (3-5/3-9): The Spartans have a solid defense and a decent corps of receivers. That's the extent of their positive aspects. A new quarterback, inexperienced runners, and restructured offensive line adds up to a questionable team who will struggle all season.

7. New Mexico State Aggies (1-7/1-11): The Aggies have a strong running game, but not much else. They won't survive on a one-sided ground game.

8. Idaho Vandals (0-8/1-11): Idaho returns to the basement as the Vandals struggle to rebuild their defense and passing game.

NCAA Football 2011 Preview #2 - Balance in the Middle

We move to the center of the country, which has become more interesting with the shrinking of the Big XII and the expansion of the Big Ten.  We now have a conference with ten teams, a conference with twelve teams, and those conferences are named "Big Ten" and "Big XII".  It makes sense until you realize the the conference with 12 teams is the Big Ten and the conference with ten teams is the Big XII.  If the Big Ten hadn't started the Big Ten Network, they wouldn't have had to hold onto the name.  Let's hope a marketing genius can determine a better name for the conference that still has "Big Ten" in it.

Big Ten Leaders
1.  Wisconsin Badgers (6-2/10-2):  The Badgers have a new quarterback, but that's not too important.  Their running game has traditionally been their strength, and they have another potent backfield this year.  With a powerful offensive line to poke holes and a stingy defense to keep opponents' scores low, the Badgers will be a powerhouse.
2.  Ohio State Buckeyes (5-3/8-4):  The loss of Coach Tressel and Terrel Pryor, as well as the five-game suspension of other key players, drops the Buckeyes from conference favorite to division also-ran.  Still, their roster depth and mighty defense keep them in contention, even if they won't win the division.
3.  Purdue Boilermakers (4-4/7-5):  They don't have a roster deep with talent.  If the Boilermakers can stay healthy, they have a chance to have a great year.  Unfortunately, this is the "black and blue" conference, so they'll lose too much by the end of the season.
4.  Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5/6-6):  Down year for the Lions.  They have a untried offense and a very tough schedule.  They might pull off some surprises, but JoePa is getting a little too predictable.
5.  Illinois Fighting Illini (3-5/5-7):  I'm happy I'm not going back for Homecoming this year, as I'm afraid my Alma Mater has a long year ahead of them.  They have a good passing game, but the departure of Michel Leshoure destroys an already spotty running game.  The defense needs work, too.
6.  Indiana Hoosiers (0-8/3-9):  A new coaching staff, new schemes, and lack of experience adds up to a long and tough season for Indiana.

Big Ten Legends
1.  Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1/10-2):  The Cornhuskers enter the Big Ten conference with the strongest team in the division, and possibly the conference.  They have a strong offense.  The defense needs a little work, but it won't take much for it to come together.
2.  Michigan State Spartans (6-2/10-2):  It appears many national analysts think the Spartans tremendous season last year was a fluke.  They still think of Michigan State as a basketball school only.  They're wrong, though.  The Spartans returned many players from last season's conference contender, and the offense remains dangerous.  The defense lost a bit from last season, and that bodes ill for a team that lost a couple of games late in the fourth quarter, but I think they'll get everything coordinated midway through the season.
3.  Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2/10-2):  Always a dangerous threat, the Hawkeyes have to replace some key players this season.  A favorable schedule gives them time to work their replacements into the scheme.
4.  Northwestern Wildcats (5-3/9-3):  Another dangerous offense.  Their defense needs a bit of work, and they don't quite have the tools of other schools.  Northwestern will play hard, but they'll fall short against strong offenses.
5.  Michigan Wolverines (1-7/3-9):  If new coach Brady Hoke is hoping to have a better first season at Michigan than his predecessor, he'll be disappointed.  New offensive coordinator Al Borges is installing a pro system, but quarterback Denard Robinson isn't ready for that.  I'm not sure some of his receivers are, either.
6.  Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-8/2-10):  Not much to say here.  As in most years, the Gophers find themselves at the bottom.

Big Ten Champion (in a defensive battle):  Wisconsin Badgers

Big XII
1.  Oklahoma Sooners (8-1/11-1):  This team is strong everywhere.  They have a bit of a problem with roster depth, so if they can stay fresh into December, they will be a force.
2.  Texas A&M Aggies (8-1/11-1):  Plenty of returning starters and a favorable schedule that gives them plenty of home games gives the Aggies their best chance in years to win the conference.
3.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1/11-1):  Their offense remains powerful, and their defense is pretty good, too.  If they can remain consistent, they might win the conference.
4.  Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5/6-6):  This is Tech, so we know they have a great offense.  Their defense is weak, though, so they'll get overrun by teams with strong offenses.
5.  Missouri Tigers (4-5/6-6):  They have to break in a new quarterback, but at least he has a good backfield supporting him.  There are some questions about the offensive line, though.  Worse, the defense has several holes, which makes it hard in a conference with several strong offenses.
6.  Texas Longhorns (3-6/4-8):  Another down year for one of the top teams in the conference just a few years ago.  This team needs lots of work.
7.  Kansas State Wildcats (3-6/5-7):  The Wildcats lost their best runner and have a restructured defense.  Even their usual easy non-conference schedule won't help them this year.
8.  Baylor Bears (2-7/4-8):  They have good players on this team, but they seem to run out of steam before the end of the game.  If they are better conditioned this season, they might win as many games (or more) as Tech and Missouri, but I doubt it.
9.  Iowa State Cyclones (1-8/2-10):  The team has some talent, but most of their key positions are filled with players with limited experience.  With a year under their belt, this team might be competitive -- next year.
10.  Kansas Jayhawks (0-9/1-11):  The Jayhawks will continue to fall.  They have plenty of returning starters, but the team lacks speed and the defense seems confused.  Playing against the high-speed offenses prevalent in this conference, that won't work.

Conference USA East
1.  Southern Mississippi Golden Eages (6-2/10-2):  This team has a strong offense, but a new defensive scheme will take some time to learn.
2.  Central Florida Knights (5-3/6-6):  The Knights are a decent, but a tough non-conference schedule could weaken their squad, both by demoralizing them and by injuring them.
3.  East Carolina Pirates (4-4/4-8):  A faster defense than last year should help slow the rate of points scored against them, but if they can't improve their offense, it won't help much.
4.  Marshall Thundering Herd (3-5/3-9):  The youngest team in the conference in 2010 gained some experience, but it won't be enough to push them to the upper half of the division.
5.  UAB Blazers (1-7/2-9):  The Blazers have a strong offense, but a weak defense will keep that offense on the field a long time.  I don't think they'll last to the fourth quarter against many of their opponents.
6.  Memphis Tigers (1-7/2-9):  This team needs work on both sides of the ball.

Conference USA West
1.  Houston Cougars (7-1/10-2):  The return of QB Case Keenum boosts the team's outlook, and keeps opposing defenses on their toes.
2.  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (5-3/6-6):  Tulsa has plenty of return starters, especially on offense.  Unfortunately their defense needs work, and a new system will slow their development.
3.  SMU Mustangs (4-4/6-6):  The Mustangs return many of last year's starters, but a schedule filled with tough road games will prevent them from gaining much momentum.
4.  Rice Owls (4-4/4-8):  Rice changes their offensive scheme yet again, confusing players who have been learning a new system every year.  A thin receiving corps also makes their offense susceptible to injuries.
5.  Tulane Green Wave (2-6/3-9):  This team has a good running game, but that's about all they have going for them.
6.  UTEP Miners (0-8/2-10):  With only two starters from 2010 returning, this team in a classic example of a rebuilding project.

Conference USA Champion:  Houston Cougars

MAC East
1.  Miami Ohio Redhawks (7-1/9-3):  The new coaching staff won't have to change much, with so many returning starters.  This defense needs some tweaking, but it's already better than most teams in the division.
2.  Ohio Bobcats (6-2/9-3):  The Bobcats have a strong running game.  They need it, as their passing game is weak.  A rebuilt defensive line and strong secondary makes it hard to score against them.
3.  Temple Owls (5-3/7-5):  The defense lost some talent, but I'm even sure new coach Steve Addazio will notice.  Addazio focuses on offense.  He's going to want a powerful offense.  That means Temple needs to improve the performance of whoever wins the quarterback position.
4.  Akron Zips (4-4/5-7):  They have plenty of returning starters, but since last season's team went 1-11, you wonder how much that experience helps them.  It gave them exposure to how some of the other teams play, and that definitely could help.
5.  Buffalo Bulls (3-5/4-8):  Ther Bulls have a strong running game, but the rest of their squads are suspect.  Their defense will keep them in games with weaker teams, but they won't be able to hold out against stronger teams.
6.  Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6/4-8):  The offense has been completely overhauled.  The defense didn't need as much work, but they have holes at certain key positions, so they may want to do some modification on that squad as well.
7.  Bowling Green Falcons (0-8/2-10):  They can't run, they can't stop the run, and their new quarterback isn't consistent in passing.  This is not a recipe for success.

MAC West
1.  Toledo Rockets (8-0/10-2):  Explosive Eric Page gives them the edge in special teams.  A strong running and passing game keeps their offense moving.  They also have the strongest defense in the conference.  If they don't run the table in the MAC, something is strange.
2.  Northern Illinois Huskies (7-1/10-2):  This team has tremendous talent.  If the new coaching staff doesn't feel the need to tweak anything, they can give Toledo a run for the division title.
3.  Western Michigan Broncos (5-3/9-3):  Good defense, but their two best pass rushers left.  Without them, they have limited pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Give someone that much time, they'll find a receiver.
4.  Eastern Michigan Eagles (2-6/4-8):  This team has the worst defense in the conference.  A strong running game might help them, but this will be a tough season.  A great slate of non-conference opponents helps improve their record.
5.  Central Michigan Chippewas (1-7/2-10):  This team has a poor offense, and practically no running game.  Their defense lost their best players.  That means another long season for Chippewas fans.
6.  Ball State Cardinals (1-7/1-11):  The defense has some talent, but they are inconsistent.  New coach Pete Lembo likes to pass, but the passing game is anemic.

MAC Champion:  Toledo Rockets

NCAA 2011 Preview #1 - Beasts of the East

Welcome to a new year of NCAA FBS football!  Like always, I will be providing my predictions on top teams in the eleven FBS conferences, as well as the Independents.  That can be a long column done together, so I'm breaking it into three main regions:  East, Central, and West.
  
SEC East
1.  South Carolina Gamecocks (7-1/11-1): Steve Spurrier has a strong team, and is definitely favored to win the division again.  He hasn't decided on a new starting quarterback, but he is a master at preparing quarterbacks, so whoever gains the job will do well.  He'll certainly be well-supported, with a strong cadre of receivers.
  
2.  Georgia Bulldogs (5-3/8-4):  The Bulldogs have to change their receiving corps, but they had enough talent last season that the change shouldn't adversely affect them.  The passing game will certainly be the focus, as a porous offensive line makes their running game suspect.  Their defense is good, which is the primary reason I think they'll improve by two victories and finish second in the division.  Another reason is their strong special teams, which will yield at least a couple of extra touchdowns this season.
   
3.  Florida Gators (4-4/7-5):  Will Muschamp will preside over a new age in Gator Nation.  Gone are the lax rules of Urban Meyer.  Already Coach Muschamp has removed or placed on probation four key players from the team.  Florida has plenty of talent, so the dismissals won't destroy their season, but it'll take time for the new players to adjust.  Fortunately they have some easy games to start the season.
  
4.  Tennessee Volunteers (3-5/7-5):  Derek Dooley's second season won't be much easier than his first.  He has 13 starters returning, but a weak defense will still make it hard for them to beat their conference opponents.  They have an easy non-conference schedule, which might boost the confidence of the team enough to turn around a couple of games, but they still have a ways to go to return to the top of the division.
  
5.  Vanderbilt Commodores (3-5/6-6):  All of the major coaches are new, and a new system has been installed.  That could indicate a rebuilding year, but Vandy has already suffered two pathetic seasons.  With an easy non-conference schedule to gain comfort in the new system, I think Vandy will have a decent season.
  
6.  Kentucky Wildcats (2-6/4-8):  The Wildcats lost too much talent to have a winning season.  Victories against a Sun Belt team and a FCS team won't perk them up much.
   
SEC West
1.  Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0/12-0): They lost some talented starters, but talent runs through their roster.  They are still determining who the starting quarterback will be, but they have two strong candidates.  Running game remains intact with Trent Richardson and they have plenty of talented receivers.  More importantly, their defense is as solid as 2009, when they won the National Championship.  They stand a good chance to do so again.
  
2.  LSU Tigers (7-1/10-2):  LSU is favored to compete for the the National Title by several national sources, but they have some tough road games, especially to Oregon to start the season and to Tuscaloosa to face a powerful Alabama team.  Les Miles won a couple of games last year on trick plays, but that habit backfired against Auburn.  He won't get away with such tricks this year, and the losses on their defense means their offense will have to work harder.  LSU will push Alabama, but their November 5th meeting should go the Tide's way, sealing both teams' fates.
  
3.  Auburn Tigers (4-4/8-4):  Despite losses of key talent, the Tigers will still be a tough team, especially on defense.  You will note the huge gap between the top two teams and the rest of the division.  There is definitely an upper level, and Auburn has fallen from it this season.
  
4.  Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4/7-5):  The Razorbacks improved well with Ryan Mallet there, but Mallet is gone and his Alma Mater's fortunes will match his own in the NFL -- ups and downs.  As well as Mallet, Arkansas lost their two best runners, one of whom was injured in the spring game and won't play.  This fractures both parts of the offense, and the defense just isn't strong enough to beat many of their opponents.
  
5.  Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7/3-9):  Both Sports Illustrated and Sporting News likes the Bulldogs this year, but they have too many holes.  Both lines are weak, and a roster of weak receivers can't support their talented quarterback.
  
6.  Ole Miss Rebels (0-8/1-11):  Too many losses on both sides of the ball and a poor showing in the spring doesn't give much hope to the Rebels.
 
SEC Champion:  Alabama Crimson Tide
  
ACC Atlantic
1.  Florida State Seminoles (8-0/10-2):  The Seminoles have the talent to run the table in the ACC, especially with EJ Manuel leading the offensive.  They also have the advantage of facing their toughest conference opponents at home. 
  
2.  NC State Wolfpack (7-1/10-2):  Here again I go against my comrades at Sports Illustrated and Sporting News.  The Wolfpack has 13 returning starters and retain consistency at key positions.  They have a new quarterback, but Mike Glennon looked good in clean-up duties last season, and played well in the spring.  NC State will push Florida State.
  
3.  Maryland Terrapins (5-3/7-5):  The Terrapins are talented, but hampered by a difficult schedule.  Also, Edsall has to adjust to the tougher defenses in the ACC.  He won't find winning in this conference as easy as the Big East.
  
4.  Clemson Tigers (3-5/5-7):  They have a great offense, with eight returning starters.  The best of those is running back Andre Ellington.  Clemson can move the ball, but unfortunately they can't stop their opponents from moving it, either.
  
5.  Boston College Eagles (2-6/3-9):  The Eagles lost too much on offense to succeed this season.  They have a decent defense, but they won't be able to stop some of the strong offenses in the conference.
  
6.  Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-7/2-10):  They have a good offensive line, but the rest of the squad needs work.  The defense suffered last season, so they switched systems.  They also have two defensive coordinators, so how long will it take for a conflict to develop between the two, especially when Wake Forest starts losing badly?
  
ACC Coastal
1.  Virginia Tech Hokies (8-0/12-0):  An easy non-conference schedule is hardly a warm-up for ACC conference play, but it won't matter much.  Although the Hokies lost their quarterback, best runner, and strong receiver, Frank Beamer has stocked this team with talent, so they don't lose a step. 
  
2.  North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4/7-5):  The Tar Heels have plenty of holes to fill, but they have an advantage - most of the rest of the division is in tatters.  The Tar Heels had major distractions last season, and still finished with a 7-5 record.  This year they should do so again.
  
3.  Miami Hurricanes (4-4/5-7):  The Hurricanes are improving, but they aren't there yet.  It doesn't help that they continue to shoot themselves in the foot.  For the past two years, penalties and turnovers have been their bane.  This season, they face the possibility of major NCAA penalties.  The investigation, and its potential consequences, will be a major distraction, and the continuing loss of implicated players will maintain a state of chaos.  The fact that they will finish third in the division is a sign of the weaknesses of the other teams.
  
4.  Virginia Cavaliers (2-6/5-7):  The Cavs will continue to improve under coach Mike London, but they still have a ways to go.  The defense, especially, has too many holes to be truly successful.
  
5.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-6/5-7):  It seems amazing that Tech won the conference just two seasons ago.  Their offense is competent, but their defense stunk last season, and it doesn't look to improve much this season.  That does not bode well for defensive coordinator Al Groh's job.
 
6.  Duke Blue Devils (0-8/1-11):  Another typical year for the ACC doormat.  The defense doesn't look strong enough to stop most opponents, and their offense is missing some key pieces.
  
ACC Champion:  Virginia Tech Hokies
  
Big East
1.  West Virginia Mountaineers (7-0/11-1):  All the pieces of coach Bill Stewart's offense will come together this year, even though he hired Dana Holgorsen as Offensive Coordinator.  Holgorsen was instrumental in designing Oklahoma State's yard-churning offense, and he has similar talent in Morgantown.
  
2.  South Florida Bulls (6-1/10-2):  Their defense remains strong, and QB BJ Daniels should have a banner year.  They'll push West Virginia, and probably score a New Years Day bowl.
  
3.  Cincinnati Bearcats (4-3/7-5):  The offense is sturdy but not spectacular, and the defense is improving.  They aren't ready to return to double-digit winning seasons, but they are getting back on track.
  
4.  Pittsburgh Panthers (4-3/6-6):  Todd Graham inherits some talented players from former coach Dave Wannstedt, but a completely overhauled offensive and shifted defense will confuse the team enough.  They should gather some conference wins towards the end of the season, when they get comfortable with the new systems, but it'll take until the middle of October.
  
5.  Louisville Cardinals (3-4/5-7):  They have a great ground game, but the passing game is very questionable.  Their defense is good, but thin.  Injuries or just exhaustion will cause them to lose games in the fourth quarter.
  
6.  Syracuse Orange (2-5/3-9):  The Orange's passing game is working, but that's about the only aspect that is working.  A one-sided offense won't survive, and a porous defense will allow opponents to score against them easily.
 
7.  UConn Huskies (1-6/3-9):  The departure of Randy Edsall has left this team in disarray.  New coach Paul Pasqualoni knows the conference, after 14 years at Syracuse, but he wasn't too successful during most of his tenure with the Orange, so he won't reverse the Huskies' slide this season. 
  
8.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-7/2-10):  The Knights have 17 starters returning.  For most teams, that would be cause for celebration.  Since Rutgers went 4-8 last year, the returners won't help much.  Most of their returners are on offense, and their backfield is strong.  A weak defense, though, makes them susceptible.
  
Independents
With the addition of BYU, the independents stretch across all three regions, but with two service academies in the east, I put them here.
  
1.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3):  Brian Kelly's tenure at Notre Dame started slowly last season, but finished strongly.  The players were catching on to his system at the end.  Since most of them return, it looks good for the Irish to return to a bowl game.
  
2.  BYU Cougars (8-4):  Another team who started slowly last season, BYU won five of their last six games to become bowl eligible and beat UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl.  Leaving the Mountain West Conference means the Cougars have to gain an at-large bid, which makes life tougher for them.  Fortunately, the Cougars have so many players returning from that winning streak to make their chances look good.
  
3.  Army Black Knights (6-6):  A second non-losing season in a row?  You read that right.  Army has a powerful running game, with a strong offensive line to support it.  While the defense has some holes, they have some fast players to chase receivers.
  
4.  Navy Midshipmen (5-7): The Midshipmen have a decent offense, but the former kings of the run have a weak offensive line.  Their defense is poor, too, so they will struggle this season.
 
Sun Belt
1.  Florida International Golden Panthers (8-0/11-1): The Panthers benefit from a great schedule, where they face their toughest opponents at home.  With their talent, they should sweep.  Could a Sun Belt team crack the Top 25?  Yes, and it should happen in mid-October.
  
2.  Troy Trojans (7-1/7-5):  Troy has a good team, but the loss of their top three receivers weakens the passing game.  They'll catch on, but probably not until conference play.  They'll be a strong force in the Sun Belt, losing only to Florida International.
  
3.  North Texas Mean Green (5-3/5-7):  New coach Dan McCarney brings his "take no prisoners" attitude to the Sun Belt.  After suffering a poor season last season, the many returning starters will want to take revenge on some of their conference opponents, so they'll embrace this approach.
  
4.  Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (4-4/5-7):  Nineteen returning starters brings hope to Warhawk fans, but their toughest opponents are played on the road.  A rebuilt running game doesn't help them, either.
  
5.  Florida Atlantic Owls (4-4/4-8):  The Owls lost lots of talent in the off-season; only the running game remains intact.  Florida Atlantic's new stadium will draw crowds, and they should win four of their five home games.  Playing all of their non-conference games on the road is a tough schedule, especially when those teams include powerhouses like Michigan State, Auburn, and Florida.
  
6.  Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-6/3-9):  The Hilltoppers are still looking for FBS success.  They have a talented quarterback, but only mediocre receivers.  They have a strong fullback, but a weak offensive line and iffy running backs.  The defense needs work, too.
  
7.  Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (2-6/2-10):  This team has holes all over the squads.  Their only victories will be home games against even weaker teams.
  
8.  Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-7/2-10):  The Red Wolves have a decent offense, but a terrible defense will put them behind their opponents in all of their games.
  
9.  Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (0-8/1-11):  With a new coaching staff and few returning starters, there is little here to have confidence about.