It's football season again, so it's time to test my prognostication skills and predict how I see the divisional races resolving.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5 overall; 6-0 in division; playoff team): Brady proved last year that he can work with just about any wide receivers, regardless of their experience and familiarity with the game plan. Since most of the squad has been with him for at least a year, they should have a better idea of his preferred routes, so the offense should click even better. The defense may be slightly weaker, but Darrelle Revis brings speed and savvy to the squad.
2. Miami Dolphins (7-9; 4-2): A major overhaul of the offensive line was necessary, as last year's squad gave up 58 sacks. That's important, as QB Ryan Tannehill needs the time to find his best target. The team has good corners, but the rest of the defense can be beat.
3. New York Jets (4-12; 1-5): For the third straight year, the team has quarterback problems. Geno Smith is still making mistakes, and Michael Vick has lost his zip, both in his running and his passing arm. The QB woes means the rotating batch of running backs will see lots of work. Weak corners negatively impacts Coach Ryan's scheme of confusing opposing offenses. This could be the year that Ryan loses his job.
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13; 1-5): EJ Manual has decent wide receivers, including Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Sammy Watkins. He has no excuses this year, so he has to perform. He definitely needs to cut down on his interceptions. Unfortunately, he has already thrown two in preseason. If Manuel can't perform, RB CJ Spiller must stay healthy, as he is the only stable runner they have. The defense flies under the radar, but they have good people, including Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and Brandon Spikes. They will be relying heavily on them this season.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7; 4-2; playoffs): QB Andy Dalton must live up to his expectations this season. The offense is packed with talent, and the defense is good enough to slow down opponents. The team's future is centered on Dalton. With down years by Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals ought to win the division. The question is, can they win a playoff game?
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7; 4-2): The Steelers face some issues with stoners LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount. Problems with their offensive backfield puts renewed pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger. He has a bunch of talented wide receivers, and tight end Heath Miller knows Ben and his habits well. The defense, normally a Steelers staple, is rebuilt this year, so things won't be easy.
3. Baltimore Ravens (8-8; 4-2): The once vaulted defense has serious holes, especially on the inside. They really have not been able to find players to replace Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. What makes matters worse is that this defense is vulnerable to power runs and short passes -- the life blood of Pittsburgh and other opponents they face.
4. Cleveland Browns (2-14; 0-6): Josh Gordon's suspension makes life even more difficult for whomever plays quarterback. Brian Hoyer has struggled in the preseason, which makes the fans clamor for Johnny Manziel. That would be a BIG mistake. Browns' coaches have stated to the media that Manziel has only learned about half of the playbook. If that sounds slow, it is, but it's not surprising. As he showed both in school and when he taught at the Manning Camp, Johnny Football does not like to study. He didn't need to learn the system at Texas A&M, as Coach Sumlin admitted that they adjusted their game plan to fit Manziel. The Browns can't do that, so Manziel is stuck. If he is allowed time to sit and learn, he might be good. If he is brought in too soon, he'll try to use the same tricks he used in college, and it won't fool their opponents. He will be beaten badly, and since he lacks maturity, he will fall apart. If the Browns value their investment, they will hold him back.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3; 5-1; playoffs): QB Andrew Luck has tons of talent to work with. The defense may need a bit of work, but Luck and company can outscore just about anyone they face.
2. Houston Texans (12-4; 4-12; playoffs): Jadeveon Clowney should contribute early, even though he is surrounded by great talent. As great as the front seven are, the defensive secondary has some concerns. The offense has been rocky, too, and it wouldn't surprise me if Case Keenum soon unseated Ryan Fitzpatrick for starting quarterback.
3. Tennessee Titans (4-12; 2-4): QB Jake Locker is not great even when he is healthy, which has not been as often as his team would like. RB Dexter McCluster is also frequently injured, so he's likely to be supplanted by Shonn Greene. This team is still juggling too many key positions to be successful.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13; 1-5): The team is still working to improve the defense. I predict Blake Bortles will replace Chad Henne somewhere mid-season. With the development of some key players, including WR Marquise Lee and RB Toby Gerhart, this team has the potential to surge late in the season, and perhaps vault over Tennessee for third place.
AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (14-2; 5-1; playoffs): Could this offense get even better than they were last year? They lost Eric Decker, but a healthier Wes Walker and acquisition Demaryius Thomas more than compensate for that. Rookie Cody Latimer could even see time. The defense has been upgraded, too, gaining Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, and DeMarcus Ware. This team will be a monster.
2. San Diego Chargers (10-6; 4-2; playoffs): Brandon Flowers and a healthy Melvin Ingram boosts the defense. In a year when many starting QBs have struggled in preseason, Philip Rivers has been at the top of his game, making the most of some iffy receivers. Watch him continue to do that during the regular season.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8; 3-3): A fractured offensive line hurts Alex Smith, as he will have less time to find his receivers. Jamal Charles will be chased more, too. The defense has improved, but the offensive issues might hurt this team.
4. Oakland Raiders (3-13; 0-6): QB Matt Schaub hopes to right the sinking ship that is the Raiders. They have only two really good receivers (Rod Streater and Greg Little), so the offense will rely on the running game. Darren McFadden was slowing down, so they brought in Maurice Jones-Drew. He should help, but the mangled offensive line will let in too many defenders. The Raiders' defense is a patchwork. They had nine new starters last year and will likely have six new starters this season. This team cannot develop if they cannot maintain stability.
Sunday, August 31, 2014
Sunday, August 24, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 1 picks
We are the cusp of another NCAA Football season! It kicks off on Wednesday, but I'll skip that game. Since we don't have a Top 25, I'll list the games featuring Big Ten teams, and other important games of note.
Thurs Sept 28
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks: This game is crucial to the Gamecocks. They lost a couple of key players, although not as key as those lost by the Aggies. Still, if the Gamecocks want to establish their lead in the SEC East division, this victory is crucial. SOUTH CAROLINA by eight
Eastern Illinois (FCS) Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: This could be a tough game for the Gophers, as Eastern Illinois is no slacker. Still, I think the Gophers are tenacious enough to win this game. MINNESOTA by ten
Boise State Broncos at Ole Miss Rebels: I start disputing the national experts early, as this is my first "upset". Ole Miss is being considered a dark horse for playing in the SEC title game, but I don't have such faith in them. They tended to fade late in games last season, and I have no indication that they've solved that problem. On the other hand, Boise State never gives up, and they fight hard. BOISE STATE by 12
Fri Sept 29
Jacksonville State (FCS) Gamecocks at Michigan State Spartans: With the stiff defense of the Spartans, the Gamecocks might not score a single point. MICHIGAN STATE by 24
Sat Sept 30
Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at UCF Golden Knights: Without Blake Bortles, it will take a while for UCF to get on track. Their defense will keep this a low-scoring affair, but the Nittany Lions have too many weapons. PENN STATE by ten
Ohio State Buckeyes at Navy Midshipmen: Everyone is lamenting that Braxton Miller's injury takes Ohio State out of the game. I'm not so quick to dismiss them. They still have a strong defense, a decent running game, and good receivers to catch the ball whoever throws it. Their strong offensive front will also help a newbie QB. Meanwhile, their strong defensive front will make it hard for the Navy's ground game. OHIO STATE by 11
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Michigan Wolverines: I don't think the Wolverines will take Appalachian State so lightly this time. It's also a bit of a rebuilding year for the Mountaineers, so the Wolverines get a nice break. MICHIGAN by 16
Indiana State (FCS) Sycamores at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers get an FCS in-state rival to open their season. Nice scheduling. INDIANA by 13
Northern Iowa (FCS) Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes: This game isn't as easy as it sounds, as in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa have given the Hawkeyes problems in recent years. Iowa needs to start strongly out of the gate, but this might be closer than they would like. IOWA by eight
Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers: I'd love to see all of the Big Ten win their openers, but I don't think that will happen. Purdue is a weak team this year, and the Broncos have enough tools to beat them. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Youngstown State (FCS) Penguins at Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois needs to have a strong season, and a loss to a FCS team, even one as strong as Youngstown State, would not look good. Fortunately, the Illini have recently tended to start the season strong and then fade, so I think they'll do well this game. ILLINOIS by 11
Florida Atlantic Owls at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska gets an easy start to uphold their national ranking. NEBRASKA by 27
California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats gave Cal fits when they traveled to Berkeley last year, and I think they'll do it again on their home turf. NORTHWESTERN by 16
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Viginia Cavaliers: Virginia often starts the season strongly before fading, but that won't be so here. They will be the first victims of Brett Huntley's Heisman campaign. UCLA by 20
West Virginia Mountaineers at Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide's unbeaten season begins here. ALABAMA by 30
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: While the Irish have some tough games ahead, this isn't one of them. NOTRE DAME by 26
Marshall Thundering Herd at Miami Ohio Redhawks: The Thundering Herd get to start their domination. MARSHALL by 24
Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers: Auburn starts its run for an SEC division title by tackling conference foe Arkansas. AUBURN by 20
UC Davis (FCS) Aggies at Stanford Cardinal: This one won't even be close. STANFORD by lots
Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: This is practically a "toss-up" game. Both teams have advantages that would seem to give them an edge. Close games like this can often swing on something as basic as home field, especially for the first game of the season. GEORGIA by three
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Oklahoma Sooners: No doubt about the result of this one, which could have a margin of victory close to Stanford's. OKLAHOMA by 34
Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans: The Bulldogs may give the Trojans a battle, but I think USC will emerge victorious in the end. USC by six
Florida State Seminoles at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Seminoles begin their title defense on the road, but I don't think that'll slow them down much. FLORIDA STATE by 27
South Dakota (FCS) Coyotes at Oregon Ducks: The Ducks will roll here. OREGON by lots
Sun Aug 31
SMU Mustangs at Baylor Bears: Baylor gets a hot start by taming the Mustangs. BAYLOR by 23
Mon Sept 1
Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals: This game could really determine if Miami will be a serious force in the ACC. If Louisville plays them close, then Miami is likely a non-contender. I think Miami will win, but the question is by how much? MIAMI by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin Badgers at LSU Tigers: In the postseason, Big Ten v SEC games tend to go to the SEC. However, this is early, before teams have completely gelled. Moreover, the injury to Braxton Miller has most of the national analysts not only writing off Ohio State, but writing off the entire Big Ten conference. Furthermore, the big comments about Wisconsin on ESPN has been how they do not produce big-time QBs. True, but that's not how they are built. They play a physical pounding ground game, designed to wear down opponents. So early in the season, I'm not sure if LSU will have properly prepared for such a physically demanding game. They may lead early, but I see Wisconsin coming back. WISCONSIN by four
Thurs Sept 28
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks: This game is crucial to the Gamecocks. They lost a couple of key players, although not as key as those lost by the Aggies. Still, if the Gamecocks want to establish their lead in the SEC East division, this victory is crucial. SOUTH CAROLINA by eight
Eastern Illinois (FCS) Panthers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: This could be a tough game for the Gophers, as Eastern Illinois is no slacker. Still, I think the Gophers are tenacious enough to win this game. MINNESOTA by ten
Boise State Broncos at Ole Miss Rebels: I start disputing the national experts early, as this is my first "upset". Ole Miss is being considered a dark horse for playing in the SEC title game, but I don't have such faith in them. They tended to fade late in games last season, and I have no indication that they've solved that problem. On the other hand, Boise State never gives up, and they fight hard. BOISE STATE by 12
Fri Sept 29
Jacksonville State (FCS) Gamecocks at Michigan State Spartans: With the stiff defense of the Spartans, the Gamecocks might not score a single point. MICHIGAN STATE by 24
Sat Sept 30
Big Ten:
Penn State Nittany Lions at UCF Golden Knights: Without Blake Bortles, it will take a while for UCF to get on track. Their defense will keep this a low-scoring affair, but the Nittany Lions have too many weapons. PENN STATE by ten
Ohio State Buckeyes at Navy Midshipmen: Everyone is lamenting that Braxton Miller's injury takes Ohio State out of the game. I'm not so quick to dismiss them. They still have a strong defense, a decent running game, and good receivers to catch the ball whoever throws it. Their strong offensive front will also help a newbie QB. Meanwhile, their strong defensive front will make it hard for the Navy's ground game. OHIO STATE by 11
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Michigan Wolverines: I don't think the Wolverines will take Appalachian State so lightly this time. It's also a bit of a rebuilding year for the Mountaineers, so the Wolverines get a nice break. MICHIGAN by 16
Indiana State (FCS) Sycamores at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers get an FCS in-state rival to open their season. Nice scheduling. INDIANA by 13
Northern Iowa (FCS) Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes: This game isn't as easy as it sounds, as in-state rivals Iowa State and Northern Iowa have given the Hawkeyes problems in recent years. Iowa needs to start strongly out of the gate, but this might be closer than they would like. IOWA by eight
Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers: I'd love to see all of the Big Ten win their openers, but I don't think that will happen. Purdue is a weak team this year, and the Broncos have enough tools to beat them. WESTERN MICHIGAN by eight
Youngstown State (FCS) Penguins at Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois needs to have a strong season, and a loss to a FCS team, even one as strong as Youngstown State, would not look good. Fortunately, the Illini have recently tended to start the season strong and then fade, so I think they'll do well this game. ILLINOIS by 11
Florida Atlantic Owls at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska gets an easy start to uphold their national ranking. NEBRASKA by 27
California Golden Bears at Northwestern Wildcats: The Wildcats gave Cal fits when they traveled to Berkeley last year, and I think they'll do it again on their home turf. NORTHWESTERN by 16
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Viginia Cavaliers: Virginia often starts the season strongly before fading, but that won't be so here. They will be the first victims of Brett Huntley's Heisman campaign. UCLA by 20
West Virginia Mountaineers at Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide's unbeaten season begins here. ALABAMA by 30
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: While the Irish have some tough games ahead, this isn't one of them. NOTRE DAME by 26
Marshall Thundering Herd at Miami Ohio Redhawks: The Thundering Herd get to start their domination. MARSHALL by 24
Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers: Auburn starts its run for an SEC division title by tackling conference foe Arkansas. AUBURN by 20
UC Davis (FCS) Aggies at Stanford Cardinal: This one won't even be close. STANFORD by lots
Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: This is practically a "toss-up" game. Both teams have advantages that would seem to give them an edge. Close games like this can often swing on something as basic as home field, especially for the first game of the season. GEORGIA by three
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Oklahoma Sooners: No doubt about the result of this one, which could have a margin of victory close to Stanford's. OKLAHOMA by 34
Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans: The Bulldogs may give the Trojans a battle, but I think USC will emerge victorious in the end. USC by six
Florida State Seminoles at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Seminoles begin their title defense on the road, but I don't think that'll slow them down much. FLORIDA STATE by 27
South Dakota (FCS) Coyotes at Oregon Ducks: The Ducks will roll here. OREGON by lots
Sun Aug 31
SMU Mustangs at Baylor Bears: Baylor gets a hot start by taming the Mustangs. BAYLOR by 23
Mon Sept 1
Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals: This game could really determine if Miami will be a serious force in the ACC. If Louisville plays them close, then Miami is likely a non-contender. I think Miami will win, but the question is by how much? MIAMI by nine
GAME OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin Badgers at LSU Tigers: In the postseason, Big Ten v SEC games tend to go to the SEC. However, this is early, before teams have completely gelled. Moreover, the injury to Braxton Miller has most of the national analysts not only writing off Ohio State, but writing off the entire Big Ten conference. Furthermore, the big comments about Wisconsin on ESPN has been how they do not produce big-time QBs. True, but that's not how they are built. They play a physical pounding ground game, designed to wear down opponents. So early in the season, I'm not sure if LSU will have properly prepared for such a physically demanding game. They may lead early, but I see Wisconsin coming back. WISCONSIN by four
NCAA 2014 Preview III
I conclude my predictions for the 2014 NCAA FBS season with the conferences lacking a championship game, along with independents.
Big XII
1. Oklahoma (7-2 conference; 10-2 overall): I am one of few people not picking Oklahoma to reach the playoffs, instead choosing Michigan State, UCLA, Alabama, and Florida State. The biggest reason for that is the uncertain passing game. QB Trevor Knight was inconsistent last season, and he lost some great targets in the off-season. Most of the defense returns, but the offense will still need some time to gel.
2. Baylor Bears (6-3; 9-3): The offense returns nearly totally intact, but the defense lost quite a few good players. They face early challenges in conference play, too, before they can get their new defense flowing.
3. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3; 9-3): The defense looks good, but QB Jake Waters can break down and make poor decisions on third and long. They also suffer from a thin wide receiving corps, which could hurt them later in the season if they suffer too many injuries.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4; 7-5): They have to open against Florida State and close the season with their toughest conference challenges. They should do well in between, but that closing stretch will hurt them, both in winning record and potentially in injuries.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-5; 7-5): QB Trevor Boykin did well in relief of Casey Paschall last year, so the passing game looks to be in good shape. The running game, however, does not. With some losses on defense in the off-season, this team may need time to come together.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5; 7-5): They lost their best wide receiver, but whoever ends up as starting quarterback still has plenty of talent to receive his passes. A porous defense hurts them more.
7. Texas Longhorns (4-5; 6-6): QB David Ash has to stay healthy if he wants to continue Texas' improvement. The defense is also improving, but they had a problem of sometimes missing plays and tackles last season.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-6; 5-7): The defense took hits in the off-season, and that squad wasn't great last year. Losing their best runner doesn't help the situation. Add in interception problems from QB Clint Trickett, and this team will struggle.
9. Iowa State Cyclones (2-7; 3-8): QB Sam Richardson returns to lead a mediocre passing attack. With a weak offensive backfield and a slow and porous defense, this team has lots of problems.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9; 1-11): With a weak passing game and the loss of their two best running backs to injury, there just isn't much offense on this team.
American
1. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1; 9-3): Notre Dame transfer QB Gunner Kiel takes over the offense, which is a major step up from Brendon Kay. With most of last season's starting offense returning, this squad will be powerful.
2. Houston Cougars (6-2; 9-3): Eight offensive starters return, so this team is packed. The defense lost some punch, and might require a couple of weeks to get their legs back.
3. East Carolina Pirates (6-2; 7-5): QB Shane Carden leads a powerful passing attack. That strength is needed, as they lost their best running back. The defense is decent, although not quite up to normal Pirate standards.
4. Memphis Tigers (5-3; 7-5): RB Brandon Hayes returns to give QB Paxton Lynch time to fully develop. A defense returning eight starters and a favorable conference schedule helps this team, too.
5. UCF Golden Knights (4-4; 5-7): The offense lost too much in the off-season. Not just Blake Bortles, but also their best running back and half of the offensive line. Defense is okay, but they can't carry the game.
6/ Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4; 5-7): The defense returns ten of their starters from last season. That's good, because with most of the offensive backfield new, this offense will take time to gel.
7. South Florida Bulls (3-5; 5-7): Mike White remains the quarterback, but he must reduce his interception percentage, especially since the running backs lost their best player.
8. SMU Mustangs (3-5; 4-8): A thin receiving corps and weak defense won't help the development of whomever takes over as quarterback.
9. Tulane Green Wave (2-6; 3-9): There are lots of new starters this year. A flurry of injuries during spring ball makes me question the durability of this team.
10. UConn Huskies (1-7; 2-10): They have a good defense and many of their offense starters return. They have to learn a new system from new coach Bob Diaco, so this season is a learning curve.
11. Temple Owls (1-7; 2-10): QB PJ Walker has new wide receivers to throw to. The defense looks to be slightly better, but not enough. If they spend this year getting in sync with each other, they could compete next year.
Sun Belt
1. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (7-1; 9-3): They return most of last year's starters. The Cajuns may have the best offense in the conference.
2. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (6-2; 6-6): Good receiving corps and strong defense. A tough non-conference schedule may leave them slightly battered.
3. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-3; 6-6): The Eagles follow their victory over Florida by stepping up to FBS. They may be doing it with a new coach, but this team is loaded with talent and should compete.
4. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-4; 6-6): Another new FBS team, now it won't be so much of an upset when they beat teams like Michigan, who they face in their opener. Unfortunately a slew of graduations leaves the team a bit tattered this year.
5. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4; 5-7): The team is breaking in a new quarterback and a new coach. While the running back corps is solid, this looks to be a rebuilding year.
6. South Alabama Jaguars (4-4; 4-8): A new quarterback has some good targets, but a questionable defense means they'll battle for each victory.
7. Troy Trojans (3-5; 4-8): A new quarterback and poor defense means a long year for Troy.
8. New Mexico State Aggies (2-6; 3-9): They have a similar situation to Troy, and a tougher non-conference schedule.
9. Georgia State Panthers (1-7; 2-10): The offense is improving, but they still have a long way to go.
10. Texas State Bobcats (1-7; 2-10): With a tougher non-conference schedule, this will be a tough year.
11. Idaho Vandals (1-7; 1-11): Their QB carousel needs to settle on one, to make the offensive game plan simpler and more consistent. A weak defense holds them back.
Independents
1. Navy Midshipmen (11-1): The best running game in the nation has a great schedule. They should sweep their opponents after dropping to Ohio State in their opener.
2. BYU Cougars (9-3): QB Taysom Hill leads an experienced offense. With a strong defense and great schedule, this team will be bowl bound.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5): QB Everett Golson returns after sitting out 2013 for cheating, but now other players are locked in a cheating investigation. Between those suspensions and the other defenders lost in the off-season, this team will have trouble stopping the many powerful offenses on their schedule.
4. Army Black Knights (7-5): The Black Knights could nab a bowl berth in their last year as an independent, before joining the Sun Belt as a football-only member. They have a comparative easy schedule, and their crushing ground game remains intact. If they can fix some defensive woes, this team can compete.
Big XII
1. Oklahoma (7-2 conference; 10-2 overall): I am one of few people not picking Oklahoma to reach the playoffs, instead choosing Michigan State, UCLA, Alabama, and Florida State. The biggest reason for that is the uncertain passing game. QB Trevor Knight was inconsistent last season, and he lost some great targets in the off-season. Most of the defense returns, but the offense will still need some time to gel.
2. Baylor Bears (6-3; 9-3): The offense returns nearly totally intact, but the defense lost quite a few good players. They face early challenges in conference play, too, before they can get their new defense flowing.
3. Kansas State Wildcats (6-3; 9-3): The defense looks good, but QB Jake Waters can break down and make poor decisions on third and long. They also suffer from a thin wide receiving corps, which could hurt them later in the season if they suffer too many injuries.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-4; 7-5): They have to open against Florida State and close the season with their toughest conference challenges. They should do well in between, but that closing stretch will hurt them, both in winning record and potentially in injuries.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (4-5; 7-5): QB Trevor Boykin did well in relief of Casey Paschall last year, so the passing game looks to be in good shape. The running game, however, does not. With some losses on defense in the off-season, this team may need time to come together.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5; 7-5): They lost their best wide receiver, but whoever ends up as starting quarterback still has plenty of talent to receive his passes. A porous defense hurts them more.
7. Texas Longhorns (4-5; 6-6): QB David Ash has to stay healthy if he wants to continue Texas' improvement. The defense is also improving, but they had a problem of sometimes missing plays and tackles last season.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-6; 5-7): The defense took hits in the off-season, and that squad wasn't great last year. Losing their best runner doesn't help the situation. Add in interception problems from QB Clint Trickett, and this team will struggle.
9. Iowa State Cyclones (2-7; 3-8): QB Sam Richardson returns to lead a mediocre passing attack. With a weak offensive backfield and a slow and porous defense, this team has lots of problems.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-9; 1-11): With a weak passing game and the loss of their two best running backs to injury, there just isn't much offense on this team.
American
1. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1; 9-3): Notre Dame transfer QB Gunner Kiel takes over the offense, which is a major step up from Brendon Kay. With most of last season's starting offense returning, this squad will be powerful.
2. Houston Cougars (6-2; 9-3): Eight offensive starters return, so this team is packed. The defense lost some punch, and might require a couple of weeks to get their legs back.
3. East Carolina Pirates (6-2; 7-5): QB Shane Carden leads a powerful passing attack. That strength is needed, as they lost their best running back. The defense is decent, although not quite up to normal Pirate standards.
4. Memphis Tigers (5-3; 7-5): RB Brandon Hayes returns to give QB Paxton Lynch time to fully develop. A defense returning eight starters and a favorable conference schedule helps this team, too.
5. UCF Golden Knights (4-4; 5-7): The offense lost too much in the off-season. Not just Blake Bortles, but also their best running back and half of the offensive line. Defense is okay, but they can't carry the game.
6/ Tulsa Golden Hurricane (4-4; 5-7): The defense returns ten of their starters from last season. That's good, because with most of the offensive backfield new, this offense will take time to gel.
7. South Florida Bulls (3-5; 5-7): Mike White remains the quarterback, but he must reduce his interception percentage, especially since the running backs lost their best player.
8. SMU Mustangs (3-5; 4-8): A thin receiving corps and weak defense won't help the development of whomever takes over as quarterback.
9. Tulane Green Wave (2-6; 3-9): There are lots of new starters this year. A flurry of injuries during spring ball makes me question the durability of this team.
10. UConn Huskies (1-7; 2-10): They have a good defense and many of their offense starters return. They have to learn a new system from new coach Bob Diaco, so this season is a learning curve.
11. Temple Owls (1-7; 2-10): QB PJ Walker has new wide receivers to throw to. The defense looks to be slightly better, but not enough. If they spend this year getting in sync with each other, they could compete next year.
Sun Belt
1. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (7-1; 9-3): They return most of last year's starters. The Cajuns may have the best offense in the conference.
2. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (6-2; 6-6): Good receiving corps and strong defense. A tough non-conference schedule may leave them slightly battered.
3. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-3; 6-6): The Eagles follow their victory over Florida by stepping up to FBS. They may be doing it with a new coach, but this team is loaded with talent and should compete.
4. Appalachian State Mountaineers (4-4; 6-6): Another new FBS team, now it won't be so much of an upset when they beat teams like Michigan, who they face in their opener. Unfortunately a slew of graduations leaves the team a bit tattered this year.
5. Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4; 5-7): The team is breaking in a new quarterback and a new coach. While the running back corps is solid, this looks to be a rebuilding year.
6. South Alabama Jaguars (4-4; 4-8): A new quarterback has some good targets, but a questionable defense means they'll battle for each victory.
7. Troy Trojans (3-5; 4-8): A new quarterback and poor defense means a long year for Troy.
8. New Mexico State Aggies (2-6; 3-9): They have a similar situation to Troy, and a tougher non-conference schedule.
9. Georgia State Panthers (1-7; 2-10): The offense is improving, but they still have a long way to go.
10. Texas State Bobcats (1-7; 2-10): With a tougher non-conference schedule, this will be a tough year.
11. Idaho Vandals (1-7; 1-11): Their QB carousel needs to settle on one, to make the offensive game plan simpler and more consistent. A weak defense holds them back.
Independents
1. Navy Midshipmen (11-1): The best running game in the nation has a great schedule. They should sweep their opponents after dropping to Ohio State in their opener.
2. BYU Cougars (9-3): QB Taysom Hill leads an experienced offense. With a strong defense and great schedule, this team will be bowl bound.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5): QB Everett Golson returns after sitting out 2013 for cheating, but now other players are locked in a cheating investigation. Between those suspensions and the other defenders lost in the off-season, this team will have trouble stopping the many powerful offenses on their schedule.
4. Army Black Knights (7-5): The Black Knights could nab a bowl berth in their last year as an independent, before joining the Sun Belt as a football-only member. They have a comparative easy schedule, and their crushing ground game remains intact. If they can fix some defensive woes, this team can compete.
Saturday, August 23, 2014
NCAA 2014 Preview II
The biggest part of this preview was completed in the previous post. Now I examine the three non-power conferences that have conference championship games: Mountain West, Mid-American (MAC), and Conference USA.
Mountain West - Mountain division
1. Boise State Broncos (6-2 conference; 10-2 overall): Former QB Bryan Harsin returns to campus as head coach, and he plans to continue the scheme created by Chris Petersen. That means a powerful spread offense and a quick blitzing defense. This team is set up for that.
2. Utah State Aggies (6-2; 9-3): QB Chuckie Keeton may be the best quarterback in the conference, and's back with much of his 2013 receiving crew. The defense took a slight hit, but they're still a Top 25 bunch, making this a tough team to beat.
3. Air Force Falcons (4-3; 8-4): QB Ryan Brand performed very well in the Elite 11 camp, so there is an indication that the Falcons' air attack is coming back. They still a sturdy ground game, too, so this offense is great. The defense needs some work, though. If it stiffens earlier than expected, this team could compete for the title.
4. Colorado State Rams (3-5; 6-6): Perhaps the most important concern for this team, especially the offense, is how quickly and how well QB Garrett Grayson recovers from his off-season surgery. They need him and a working passing attack, as they lost their best runner to the Denver Broncos.
5. New Mexico Lobos (2-6; 5-7): The team lost their best running back, but the offensive backfield is still potent. A weak passing game and weak defense spells doom for the team.
6. Wyoming Cowboys (0-8; 1-11): My anticipated overall record says it all -- the Cowboys are over their heads this season.
Mountain West -- West division
1. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-2; 8-4): The Bulldogs have a huge task to replace QB Derek Carr, but Brian Burnell will try. The team needs to improve their running game and defense, also, but they aren't too far from a decent finished product. Fortunately for Fresno, the rest of this division is having a down season, too.
2. San Diego State Aztecs (4-4; 6-6): QB Quinn Kashler leads a decent passing attack, but the rest of the offensive (including the line) needs work. The defense isn't great, which will push Kashler to try to make up for deficits, and that will cause him to make risky plays and mistakes.
3. San Jose State Spartans (3-5; 5-7): QB David Fales is off to the Chicago Bears, leaving the offense in disarray. They have a decent running game, but it's not spectacular. With a porous defense, that running game won't help them enough.
4. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-6; 3-9): This team is mediocre (or worse) all over. They could develop quickly enough to compete, but I question that.
5. Hawaii Warriors (2-6; 3-9): This program has not been producing since June Jones quit. The losses, both on the field and in the financial office, is causing the administration to consider dropping the football program after this season. Will that inspire the team to play above themselves, or cause them to give up early? I suspect the later.
6. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6; 3-10): The team is ineligible for a bowl due to disciplinary action, but they won't have the minimum wins to qualify anyway. Talk about a wasted punishment!
MAC East
1. Buffalo Bulls (6-2; 9-3): QB Joe Licata returns to a team that reached a bowl game for the first time in school history. They need to improve their running game, but otherwise the team remains strong, and are likely to repeat as division champs and capture a second consecutive bowl bid.
2. Bowling Green Falcons (6-2; 8-4): QB Matt Johnson is good, and he has Baylor transfer Robbie Rhodes added to his receiving crew. With their strong defense, this is a powerful team.
3. Ohio Bobcats (3-5; 5-7): This team doesn't stand much of a chance this season. They start a new quarterback, they have a lousy running game, and their defense is slow. Not a good combination.
4. Akron Zips (3-5; 4-8): The Zips are a weak team this year, but if former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel is appointed the new president, he may overhaul the athletic department and give the Zips some help next year.
5. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6; 4-8): The untimely death of center Jason Bitsko could upset both the offensive line and the entire team.
6. Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-7; 2-10): At least they should improve from last year's winless season
7. UMass Minutemen (1-7; 1-11): They will be leaving the MAC in two years, although I don't know who else wants them. They play all other sports in the Atlantic 10, and the "football only" plan only works with Notre Dame.
MAC West
1. Central Michigan Chippewas (5-3; 8-4): It's rare for the Chippewas to be the favorites, but a strong returning squad plus down years for much of the rest of the division should give them a pretty easy path to the conference championship. QB Cooper Rush and WR Titus Davis should be more in sync this season, and really light up the scoreboard. They also benefit from an easy non-conference schedule; they could start 4-0.
2. Western Michigan Broncos (4-4; 7-5): QB Zach Terrell needs to improve, as the running game is practically non-existent. The defense is better, but it was so bad last year, it had nowhere to go but up.
3. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4; 6-6): Jordan Lynch was most of the offense last season, so now they have the daunting task of replacing him.
4. Ball State Cardinals (3-5; 5-7): They lost their quarterback and best receiver in the off-season, but retain RB Jahwan Edwards and WR Jordan Williams to help the offense. The defense isn't bad, but may take a little time to gel.
5. Toledo Rockets (3-5; 4-8): This team lost most of their key starters on both sides of the ball, so this is definitely a rebuilding year.
6. Eastern Michigan Eagles (1-7; 3-9): This team needs a lot of work.
Conference USA East
1. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-1; 11-1): QB Rakeem Cato can be emotionally volatile, but he explodes for lots of passing yards. If the defense improves, this team could go unbeaten.
2. Florida Atlantic Owls (6-2; 8-4): QB Jacquez Johnson is similar to Jordan Lynch, and will likely be the leading rusher on this team. A strong defense makes them a tough opponent.
3. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-3; 6-6): QB Brandon Doughty lost his bet receiver, but a strong backfield provides a stable running game for support. The defense lost some good starters, but it still packs a punch.
4. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5; 5-7): Most of their starters return, so they know each other pretty well. I'm not sure how well that translates to wins, though, as this team was pretty poor last year.
5. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-5; 4-8): With QB Logan Kilgore gone, this team will rely more on their running attack while they groom a new quarterback. The defense needs to improve most, though.
6. UAB Blazers (2-6; 3-9): Austin Brown assumes full-time QB duties. That should add some consistency to the passing game. They could hope for a similar consistency on the defensive line.
7. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-7; 3-9): Don't let last season's record fool you, as the Monarchs played most FCS teams. This team now faces a full schedule of FBS teams. Fortunately QB Taylor Heinicke has plenty of talented targers. A poor defense leaves them in the dust, though.
Conference USA West
The power is clearly in the East division this year, as even the projected division winner won't have a winning record.
1. UTEP Miners (3-5; 4-8): QB Jameil Showers may be better this year, but they'll still lean heavily on a running attack. With a poor defense, they'll fall behind early.
2. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5; 4-8): One year of experience should help this team, as most of their starters return, but they are not championship caliber yet.
3. North Texas Mean Green (2-6; 4-8): They are rebuilding everywhere: quarterback, offensive line, offensive backfield, and defense.
4. Rice Owls (2-6; 2-10): A touch non-conference schedule combined with a new offense means this team will start slowly and take a while to gel.
5. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-7; 2-10): QB Nick Mullens has few experienced targets this season. Without a running attack or stable defense, this team goes nowhere this season.
6. UTSA Roadrunners (1-7; 1-11): This team looks like they were attacked by Wile E. Coyote.
Mountain West - Mountain division
1. Boise State Broncos (6-2 conference; 10-2 overall): Former QB Bryan Harsin returns to campus as head coach, and he plans to continue the scheme created by Chris Petersen. That means a powerful spread offense and a quick blitzing defense. This team is set up for that.
2. Utah State Aggies (6-2; 9-3): QB Chuckie Keeton may be the best quarterback in the conference, and's back with much of his 2013 receiving crew. The defense took a slight hit, but they're still a Top 25 bunch, making this a tough team to beat.
3. Air Force Falcons (4-3; 8-4): QB Ryan Brand performed very well in the Elite 11 camp, so there is an indication that the Falcons' air attack is coming back. They still a sturdy ground game, too, so this offense is great. The defense needs some work, though. If it stiffens earlier than expected, this team could compete for the title.
4. Colorado State Rams (3-5; 6-6): Perhaps the most important concern for this team, especially the offense, is how quickly and how well QB Garrett Grayson recovers from his off-season surgery. They need him and a working passing attack, as they lost their best runner to the Denver Broncos.
5. New Mexico Lobos (2-6; 5-7): The team lost their best running back, but the offensive backfield is still potent. A weak passing game and weak defense spells doom for the team.
6. Wyoming Cowboys (0-8; 1-11): My anticipated overall record says it all -- the Cowboys are over their heads this season.
Mountain West -- West division
1. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-2; 8-4): The Bulldogs have a huge task to replace QB Derek Carr, but Brian Burnell will try. The team needs to improve their running game and defense, also, but they aren't too far from a decent finished product. Fortunately for Fresno, the rest of this division is having a down season, too.
2. San Diego State Aztecs (4-4; 6-6): QB Quinn Kashler leads a decent passing attack, but the rest of the offensive (including the line) needs work. The defense isn't great, which will push Kashler to try to make up for deficits, and that will cause him to make risky plays and mistakes.
3. San Jose State Spartans (3-5; 5-7): QB David Fales is off to the Chicago Bears, leaving the offense in disarray. They have a decent running game, but it's not spectacular. With a porous defense, that running game won't help them enough.
4. Nevada Wolf Pack (2-6; 3-9): This team is mediocre (or worse) all over. They could develop quickly enough to compete, but I question that.
5. Hawaii Warriors (2-6; 3-9): This program has not been producing since June Jones quit. The losses, both on the field and in the financial office, is causing the administration to consider dropping the football program after this season. Will that inspire the team to play above themselves, or cause them to give up early? I suspect the later.
6. UNLV Running Rebels (2-6; 3-10): The team is ineligible for a bowl due to disciplinary action, but they won't have the minimum wins to qualify anyway. Talk about a wasted punishment!
MAC East
1. Buffalo Bulls (6-2; 9-3): QB Joe Licata returns to a team that reached a bowl game for the first time in school history. They need to improve their running game, but otherwise the team remains strong, and are likely to repeat as division champs and capture a second consecutive bowl bid.
2. Bowling Green Falcons (6-2; 8-4): QB Matt Johnson is good, and he has Baylor transfer Robbie Rhodes added to his receiving crew. With their strong defense, this is a powerful team.
3. Ohio Bobcats (3-5; 5-7): This team doesn't stand much of a chance this season. They start a new quarterback, they have a lousy running game, and their defense is slow. Not a good combination.
4. Akron Zips (3-5; 4-8): The Zips are a weak team this year, but if former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel is appointed the new president, he may overhaul the athletic department and give the Zips some help next year.
5. Kent State Golden Flashes (2-6; 4-8): The untimely death of center Jason Bitsko could upset both the offensive line and the entire team.
6. Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-7; 2-10): At least they should improve from last year's winless season
7. UMass Minutemen (1-7; 1-11): They will be leaving the MAC in two years, although I don't know who else wants them. They play all other sports in the Atlantic 10, and the "football only" plan only works with Notre Dame.
MAC West
1. Central Michigan Chippewas (5-3; 8-4): It's rare for the Chippewas to be the favorites, but a strong returning squad plus down years for much of the rest of the division should give them a pretty easy path to the conference championship. QB Cooper Rush and WR Titus Davis should be more in sync this season, and really light up the scoreboard. They also benefit from an easy non-conference schedule; they could start 4-0.
2. Western Michigan Broncos (4-4; 7-5): QB Zach Terrell needs to improve, as the running game is practically non-existent. The defense is better, but it was so bad last year, it had nowhere to go but up.
3. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-4; 6-6): Jordan Lynch was most of the offense last season, so now they have the daunting task of replacing him.
4. Ball State Cardinals (3-5; 5-7): They lost their quarterback and best receiver in the off-season, but retain RB Jahwan Edwards and WR Jordan Williams to help the offense. The defense isn't bad, but may take a little time to gel.
5. Toledo Rockets (3-5; 4-8): This team lost most of their key starters on both sides of the ball, so this is definitely a rebuilding year.
6. Eastern Michigan Eagles (1-7; 3-9): This team needs a lot of work.
Conference USA East
1. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-1; 11-1): QB Rakeem Cato can be emotionally volatile, but he explodes for lots of passing yards. If the defense improves, this team could go unbeaten.
2. Florida Atlantic Owls (6-2; 8-4): QB Jacquez Johnson is similar to Jordan Lynch, and will likely be the leading rusher on this team. A strong defense makes them a tough opponent.
3. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-3; 6-6): QB Brandon Doughty lost his bet receiver, but a strong backfield provides a stable running game for support. The defense lost some good starters, but it still packs a punch.
4. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-5; 5-7): Most of their starters return, so they know each other pretty well. I'm not sure how well that translates to wins, though, as this team was pretty poor last year.
5. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-5; 4-8): With QB Logan Kilgore gone, this team will rely more on their running attack while they groom a new quarterback. The defense needs to improve most, though.
6. UAB Blazers (2-6; 3-9): Austin Brown assumes full-time QB duties. That should add some consistency to the passing game. They could hope for a similar consistency on the defensive line.
7. Old Dominion Monarchs (1-7; 3-9): Don't let last season's record fool you, as the Monarchs played most FCS teams. This team now faces a full schedule of FBS teams. Fortunately QB Taylor Heinicke has plenty of talented targers. A poor defense leaves them in the dust, though.
Conference USA West
The power is clearly in the East division this year, as even the projected division winner won't have a winning record.
1. UTEP Miners (3-5; 4-8): QB Jameil Showers may be better this year, but they'll still lean heavily on a running attack. With a poor defense, they'll fall behind early.
2. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-5; 4-8): One year of experience should help this team, as most of their starters return, but they are not championship caliber yet.
3. North Texas Mean Green (2-6; 4-8): They are rebuilding everywhere: quarterback, offensive line, offensive backfield, and defense.
4. Rice Owls (2-6; 2-10): A touch non-conference schedule combined with a new offense means this team will start slowly and take a while to gel.
5. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (1-7; 2-10): QB Nick Mullens has few experienced targets this season. Without a running attack or stable defense, this team goes nowhere this season.
6. UTSA Roadrunners (1-7; 1-11): This team looks like they were attacked by Wile E. Coyote.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
NCAA 2014 Preview I
This year, I do something different with my college football preview columns. Conference realignment has made geographical divisions hard, so instead I use the configuration of the conferences. I will start with the major power conferences that have conference championship games, then review the minor conferences with conference championship games, and then finish with the independents and conferences without championships.
Big Ten
With addition of Rutgers and Maryland expanding the conference to 14 teams, it ties the ACC and SEC for the largest power conference. They abolished the Legends and Leaders division tags for more traditional labels.
East division
1. Michigan State Spartans (8-0 conference; 12-0 overall): No, that is NOT a misprint. The league's best defense last year should come back losing hardly an eyelash. They benefit from a schedule that brings their toughest opponents to Lansing (Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska). Their toughest challenge is a trip to Eugene Oregon on Sept 6th. If that defense can slow down the Ducks, the Spartans can run the table, win the Big Ten conference game, and grab one of the four playoff spots.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1; 11-1): Everyone is "gloom and doom" over the Buckeyes chances with Braxton Miller reinjuring his shoulder. However, that might not hurt them too badly. While some reporters are saying he is out for the season, I don't think a competitor like him will stay out. The Buckeyes defense should keep the team winning until Braxton can return. If they can stop the running game of Navy, their next real challenge is against Penn State on October 25th -- Miller might be back by then.
3. Michigan Wolverines (6-2; 9-3): Spared from facing Nebraska and Wisconsin, the Wolverines don't get a complete break, as they have to travel to both Columbus and Lansing. QB Devin Gardner is too inconsistent for the Wolverines to count on him against tough defenses. A good defense, decent play-calling, and fancy moves by Gardner will let them win close games against other opponents.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3; 8-4): Linebacker U is looking a bit thin these days. They converted two defensive linemen to offensive lineman, which might be dangerous. Watch those hands, guys, or you'll be racking up penalties. QB Christian Hackenberg has to show growth, as he lost the best wide receiver to graduation and #2 tight end to injury.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (3-5; 6-6): A poor defense still hampers them. If they lose to Bowling Green, they bowl chances are slim. The offense is decent, but not the powerhouse it was in 2011.
6. Maryland Terrapins (1-7; 3-9): QB CJ Brown did well last year, but now he's up against stiffer defenses. The Terps will have a sharp learning curve in the conference. At least a decent defense will prevent too many blowouts.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-7; 3-9): This will be a long hard year for the Scarlet Knights. The offensive line looks decent, but the passing game is weak. The defense is much too slow for the speed of Big Ten opponents.
Big Ten West
1. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0; 11-1): The Badgers' biggest conference challenge is their opener at Northwestern. There is lots of talk about how, with the exception of Russell Wilson, the Badgers don't produce premier quarterbacks. That's true, but with the running back factory they have, they don't really need to. They wear down defenses with a grinding ground attack, letting them tire and putting them away in the fourth quarter.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2; 9-3): I'm not sure if the Hawkeyes grab the #2 spot due to an improved team or a faltering of the rest of the division. With Nebraska behind them, I'd say Iowa gets help from a nice schedule and stout defense. Their only real conference challenges come at the end, with games against Wisconsin and Nebraska.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3; 9-3): QB Tommy Armstrong saw action last year, so he's primed to be under center. With mostly seniors at wide receiver and tight end, the passing game should improve. Amer Addullah returns at running back, but a rebuilt offensive line may hamper the running attack to start the season. The defense took a slight hit with the transfer of Aaron Curry, but it's still a strong squad.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4; 6-6): This squad is shrinking in talent every day as opening week approaches. After being suspended for the first two games due to an unspecified infraction, RB Venric Mark decided to transfer. Then injury took out WR Christian Jones. New QB Trevor Siemian needs all the help he can get, as he doesn't have the field sense of Kain Colter, but he's not getting it. This team will sputter early.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6; 6-6): Two FCS teams on the schedule shows how low the Fighting Illini have sunk. They might be better this year, especially if linebacker Mike Svetina heals his broken foot. QB Nathan Scheelhaase improved last year, and backup Reilly O'Toole showed some strength. If the defense stiffens and a ground game can be established, Illinois might surprise some opponents.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7; 3-9): QB Mitch Leidner practiced with Patriots backup QB Ryan Mallet, but don't expect him to throw like Mallet. Still, the wide receiving corps is boosted by true freshman Melvin Holland. RB David Cobb has the running game going, but the defense lost a lot from last year.
7. Purdue Boilermakers (0-8; 2-10): Another winless conference season for the anemic Boilermakers.
Pac 12 North
1. Oregon Ducks (8-1; 10-2): QB Marcus Mariotta is back from injury, but he is missing some of his favorite targets from last season. That might hurt the flow of this team early in the season, especially against the stout defense of Michigan State. If they have to rely more on designed runs and a running attack, that could reduce their point total, which will hurt them against offensive monster UCLA and defensive Stanford.
2. Stanford Cardinal (7-2; 10-2): A rebuilt offensive line puts QB Kevin Hogan on the run, which won't help reduce his interception percentage. He has a good squad of wide receivers to help him, and a sturdy defense to help prevent big deficits, but a questionable running game puts added pressure on Hogan.
3. Oregon State Beavers (5-4; 8-4): QB Shane Mannion can make some big plays, but he folded under pressure last year. If he has matured past that, the Beavers will be dangerous. They lost Mannion's two favorite targets, though, so a learning curve is necessary. Without a stable running game, Mannion and the passing game is the offense.
4. California Golden Bears (3-6; 5-7): Like Stanford and Oregon State, Cal has a poor running attack. Unlike the other two, Cal has a poor defense, too. This team will live or die on the shoulders (or arm) of QB Jared Goff. He had over 3500 passing yards last season, so he can do it, but can he produce enough offense to compete with their opponents, who should be able to score easily.
5. Washington State Cougars (2-7; 4-8): Fifth-year senior QB Connor Halliday must stay healthy, as they have no real QB to back him up. Halliday has all of his wide receivers back, but a terrible defense will put this team behind early and often.
6. Washington Huskies (2-7; 4-9): A young QB and inexperienced receivers makes their passing game suspect. They have a good defense, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the many strong offenses that they will face.
Pac 12 South
1. UCLA Bruins (9-0; 12-0): Hosting Oregon, USC, and Stanford gives the Bruins an edge. QB Brett Hundley is poised for a great season. He led them in rushing last season, so a power back is really needed to relieve the stress on his body.
2. USC Trojans (7-2; 9-3): QB Cody Kessler is not quite in the same mold as former Trojan QBs, so he needs great receivers to support him. Unfortunately, with the departure of Marqise Lee, the best WR is injury-prone George Farmer. The secondary has holes, which is a problem for the passing-strong Pac 12. Worse, the players have to learn the new system under new coach Steve Sarkisian.
3. Arizona Wildcats (5-4; 8-4): Coach Rich Rodriguez is still undecided who will start at quarterback, so it's hard to judge how well this team will do. Since all four quarterback prospects have been uninspiring in spring ball, though, I'd say we shouldn't count on the passing attack for several weeks. Thankfully a strong defense will help give that squad time to develop.
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5; 6-6): Their high-powered offense is counter-balanced by an errant defense. Last year's poor defense lost nine starters, so they start out inexperienced. However, considering how bad they were last year, maybe starting fresh will be a good thing.
5. Utah Utes (2-7; 3-8): QB Travis Wilson had too many interceptions last season. If he falters again, he may be replaced with Oklahoma transfer Kendal Thompson. Whoever is under center has a great squad of receivers to catch. A decent defense will prevent blowouts, but that defense tends to tire and fade in the fourth quarter.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (0-9; 1-11): I hope the Buffaloes enjoy the money they get from being in the Pac 12 conference, because I can't see any other reason for their move to this conference, as they have struggled mightily, and will continue to do so.
SEC East
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2; 9-3): The team lost only two starters from last season, but they were key cogs: Jadeavon Clowney and QB Connor Shaw. Those two will take a bit to replace, so the Gamecocks will finish stronger than they begin.
2. Missouri Tigers (5-3; 8-4): The Tigers have a strong defense, but the loss of QB James Franklin hurts. That takes nothing way from Maty Mauk, who was excellent last season. Mauk needs to stay healthy, though, as they don't really have a capable backup. Fortunately a strong offensive line will help keep Mauk intact.
3. Florida Gators (4-4; 7-5): An easy non-conference schedule (with the exception of Florida State) helps the Gators. New offensive coordinator Kurt Roper brings in the no-huddle offense, but is it too quick for the injury-prone Gators offense? They should improve on last season's 4-8 record, and even make a bowl game, but they won't really be a force in the conference.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (4-4; 6-6): A new quarterback and trashed secondary makes the Bulldogs questionable on both sides of the ball. At least a great running game will help give new QB Hutson Mason time to develop.
5. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6; 4-8): The Wildcats have strong offensive and defensive lines, but the secondary needs some work. A good running attack is unfortunately matched with a weak passing game, led by newbie QB Patrick Towles.
6. Tennessee Volunteers (2-6; 5-7): They must improve an anemic pass attack to compete in this conference, which goes more for dynamic offenses than pounding ground games. Fortunately the defense has some high spots, although it is slower than many of their opponents' defenses.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores (0-8; 4-8): This team has a perfect storm - an unbeaten non-conference schedule matched with a winless conference schedule. The Commodores often surprise one conference team a year, so they may go 5-7, but I can't see which team they might beat.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0; 12-0): The quarterback is a question mark, but all other areas are solid. With the quality of receivers, any quarterback will look good.
2. Auburn Tigers (6-2; 9-3): The defense was a problem last season, and they lost their two best defenders. Losing Tre Mason hurts the offense, too, but QB Nick Marshall still has an arsenal. They face an early challenge in a road trip to Manhattan, Kansas.
3. LSU Tigers (4-4; 7-5): The defense should improve, but there are questions on offense as key starters are all new: QB Brandon Harris, WR Malachi Dupre, and RB Leonard Fournette. They benefit from a nice non-conference schedule, with the exception of Wisconsin.
4. Mississippi Rebels (4-4; 7-5): If QB Bo Wallace can remain healthy, they should compete in games that they faded late last season. They have a strong offensive backfield to support Bo Wallace, and a potent defense with nine returning starters keeps their games close.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (2-6; 6-6): Their defense wasn't great last year; they won by Johnny Football outscoring opponents. Without that, this will be a rough season.
6. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6; 4-8): The Razorbacks have a strong running attack, but an anemic passing game. In this conference, that's not enough, especially since their defense is lacking.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7; 4-8): Great non-conference schedule, but they'll get pulverized in the SEC
ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State Seminoles (8-0; 12-0): The defending national champs lost only 4 starters from last year's squad. They are deep enough that these loses shouldn't hurt, except they lost their two best runners. QB Jameis Winston may become the top runner this year, too. Their defense lost no punch, making this team a threat to repeat.
2. Boston College Eagles (5-3; 7-5): Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy seems a lock to start, but can he salvage a passing attack that has been moving in slow motion? At least they have a great running game and an improved defense to help them.
3. NC State Wolf Pack (4-4; 7-5): They lost their most experienced wide receivers during the off-season. Fearing an anemic passing attack, coach Dave Doeren has reinstated "indefinitely" suspended RB Shadrach Thornton to lead running attack.
4. Clemson Tigers (4-4; 6-6): This team lost ALL of the key elements of their potent passing attack. A strong defense will keep things close, but this team will need time to develop.
5. Louisville Cardinals (3-5; 5-7): Goodbye Teddy Bridgewater. New (and former) coach Bobby Petrino has a major rebuilding job, including on his own reputation.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-6; 6-6): Their bowl chances are boosted by an easy non-conference schedule. QB John Wolford is a true freshman, so this team has a learning curve.
7. Syracuse Orange (2-7; 4-8): Returning RB Prince-Tyson Gulley was the only bright spot on either side of the ball last year, and so far it looks the same.
ACC Coastal
1. Duke Blue Devils (6-2; 10-2): Despite an early loss to Miami, the Blue Devils should win the division again. Their offense proved they could keep pace with Johnny Football (and no team except Florida State can do that in this conference), and the defense should be almost as tough as last season.
2. Miami Hurricanes (5-3; 8-4): The 'Canes look okay, but injured DB Rayshawn Jenkins and a sore throwing arm on WB Jake Heaps leaves some questions about how much they can produce.
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-3; 8-4): The Hokies have a good secondary, but the rest of the defense has some weaknesses. The offense needs a boost, and the starting QB hasn't been decided yet. This team will start in some disarray.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4; 7-5): Last year Tech had a great running game but a terrible passing attack. That should be similar this year. The defense kept them in games last year, and that should also be the same.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5; 4-8): The Heels have a tough road schedule. Their strong defense took a hit from departures. The core of their offense last year remains, but it'll still be a struggle.
6. Virginia Cavaliers (1-7; 3-9): Most of the defense returns, but they still have holes. The Cavs have a strong running game led by RB Kevin Parks. That's good, as their passing attack stinks.
7. Pittsburgh Panthers (0-8; 3-9): Most of last year's squad returns, but they weren't good last year.
Big Ten
With addition of Rutgers and Maryland expanding the conference to 14 teams, it ties the ACC and SEC for the largest power conference. They abolished the Legends and Leaders division tags for more traditional labels.
East division
1. Michigan State Spartans (8-0 conference; 12-0 overall): No, that is NOT a misprint. The league's best defense last year should come back losing hardly an eyelash. They benefit from a schedule that brings their toughest opponents to Lansing (Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska). Their toughest challenge is a trip to Eugene Oregon on Sept 6th. If that defense can slow down the Ducks, the Spartans can run the table, win the Big Ten conference game, and grab one of the four playoff spots.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1; 11-1): Everyone is "gloom and doom" over the Buckeyes chances with Braxton Miller reinjuring his shoulder. However, that might not hurt them too badly. While some reporters are saying he is out for the season, I don't think a competitor like him will stay out. The Buckeyes defense should keep the team winning until Braxton can return. If they can stop the running game of Navy, their next real challenge is against Penn State on October 25th -- Miller might be back by then.
3. Michigan Wolverines (6-2; 9-3): Spared from facing Nebraska and Wisconsin, the Wolverines don't get a complete break, as they have to travel to both Columbus and Lansing. QB Devin Gardner is too inconsistent for the Wolverines to count on him against tough defenses. A good defense, decent play-calling, and fancy moves by Gardner will let them win close games against other opponents.
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3; 8-4): Linebacker U is looking a bit thin these days. They converted two defensive linemen to offensive lineman, which might be dangerous. Watch those hands, guys, or you'll be racking up penalties. QB Christian Hackenberg has to show growth, as he lost the best wide receiver to graduation and #2 tight end to injury.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (3-5; 6-6): A poor defense still hampers them. If they lose to Bowling Green, they bowl chances are slim. The offense is decent, but not the powerhouse it was in 2011.
6. Maryland Terrapins (1-7; 3-9): QB CJ Brown did well last year, but now he's up against stiffer defenses. The Terps will have a sharp learning curve in the conference. At least a decent defense will prevent too many blowouts.
7. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-7; 3-9): This will be a long hard year for the Scarlet Knights. The offensive line looks decent, but the passing game is weak. The defense is much too slow for the speed of Big Ten opponents.
Big Ten West
1. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0; 11-1): The Badgers' biggest conference challenge is their opener at Northwestern. There is lots of talk about how, with the exception of Russell Wilson, the Badgers don't produce premier quarterbacks. That's true, but with the running back factory they have, they don't really need to. They wear down defenses with a grinding ground attack, letting them tire and putting them away in the fourth quarter.
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2; 9-3): I'm not sure if the Hawkeyes grab the #2 spot due to an improved team or a faltering of the rest of the division. With Nebraska behind them, I'd say Iowa gets help from a nice schedule and stout defense. Their only real conference challenges come at the end, with games against Wisconsin and Nebraska.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-3; 9-3): QB Tommy Armstrong saw action last year, so he's primed to be under center. With mostly seniors at wide receiver and tight end, the passing game should improve. Amer Addullah returns at running back, but a rebuilt offensive line may hamper the running attack to start the season. The defense took a slight hit with the transfer of Aaron Curry, but it's still a strong squad.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (4-4; 6-6): This squad is shrinking in talent every day as opening week approaches. After being suspended for the first two games due to an unspecified infraction, RB Venric Mark decided to transfer. Then injury took out WR Christian Jones. New QB Trevor Siemian needs all the help he can get, as he doesn't have the field sense of Kain Colter, but he's not getting it. This team will sputter early.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-6; 6-6): Two FCS teams on the schedule shows how low the Fighting Illini have sunk. They might be better this year, especially if linebacker Mike Svetina heals his broken foot. QB Nathan Scheelhaase improved last year, and backup Reilly O'Toole showed some strength. If the defense stiffens and a ground game can be established, Illinois might surprise some opponents.
6. Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-7; 3-9): QB Mitch Leidner practiced with Patriots backup QB Ryan Mallet, but don't expect him to throw like Mallet. Still, the wide receiving corps is boosted by true freshman Melvin Holland. RB David Cobb has the running game going, but the defense lost a lot from last year.
7. Purdue Boilermakers (0-8; 2-10): Another winless conference season for the anemic Boilermakers.
Pac 12 North
1. Oregon Ducks (8-1; 10-2): QB Marcus Mariotta is back from injury, but he is missing some of his favorite targets from last season. That might hurt the flow of this team early in the season, especially against the stout defense of Michigan State. If they have to rely more on designed runs and a running attack, that could reduce their point total, which will hurt them against offensive monster UCLA and defensive Stanford.
2. Stanford Cardinal (7-2; 10-2): A rebuilt offensive line puts QB Kevin Hogan on the run, which won't help reduce his interception percentage. He has a good squad of wide receivers to help him, and a sturdy defense to help prevent big deficits, but a questionable running game puts added pressure on Hogan.
3. Oregon State Beavers (5-4; 8-4): QB Shane Mannion can make some big plays, but he folded under pressure last year. If he has matured past that, the Beavers will be dangerous. They lost Mannion's two favorite targets, though, so a learning curve is necessary. Without a stable running game, Mannion and the passing game is the offense.
4. California Golden Bears (3-6; 5-7): Like Stanford and Oregon State, Cal has a poor running attack. Unlike the other two, Cal has a poor defense, too. This team will live or die on the shoulders (or arm) of QB Jared Goff. He had over 3500 passing yards last season, so he can do it, but can he produce enough offense to compete with their opponents, who should be able to score easily.
5. Washington State Cougars (2-7; 4-8): Fifth-year senior QB Connor Halliday must stay healthy, as they have no real QB to back him up. Halliday has all of his wide receivers back, but a terrible defense will put this team behind early and often.
6. Washington Huskies (2-7; 4-9): A young QB and inexperienced receivers makes their passing game suspect. They have a good defense, but I don't think it's good enough to stop the many strong offenses that they will face.
Pac 12 South
1. UCLA Bruins (9-0; 12-0): Hosting Oregon, USC, and Stanford gives the Bruins an edge. QB Brett Hundley is poised for a great season. He led them in rushing last season, so a power back is really needed to relieve the stress on his body.
2. USC Trojans (7-2; 9-3): QB Cody Kessler is not quite in the same mold as former Trojan QBs, so he needs great receivers to support him. Unfortunately, with the departure of Marqise Lee, the best WR is injury-prone George Farmer. The secondary has holes, which is a problem for the passing-strong Pac 12. Worse, the players have to learn the new system under new coach Steve Sarkisian.
3. Arizona Wildcats (5-4; 8-4): Coach Rich Rodriguez is still undecided who will start at quarterback, so it's hard to judge how well this team will do. Since all four quarterback prospects have been uninspiring in spring ball, though, I'd say we shouldn't count on the passing attack for several weeks. Thankfully a strong defense will help give that squad time to develop.
4. Arizona State Sun Devils (4-5; 6-6): Their high-powered offense is counter-balanced by an errant defense. Last year's poor defense lost nine starters, so they start out inexperienced. However, considering how bad they were last year, maybe starting fresh will be a good thing.
5. Utah Utes (2-7; 3-8): QB Travis Wilson had too many interceptions last season. If he falters again, he may be replaced with Oklahoma transfer Kendal Thompson. Whoever is under center has a great squad of receivers to catch. A decent defense will prevent blowouts, but that defense tends to tire and fade in the fourth quarter.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (0-9; 1-11): I hope the Buffaloes enjoy the money they get from being in the Pac 12 conference, because I can't see any other reason for their move to this conference, as they have struggled mightily, and will continue to do so.
SEC East
1. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2; 9-3): The team lost only two starters from last season, but they were key cogs: Jadeavon Clowney and QB Connor Shaw. Those two will take a bit to replace, so the Gamecocks will finish stronger than they begin.
2. Missouri Tigers (5-3; 8-4): The Tigers have a strong defense, but the loss of QB James Franklin hurts. That takes nothing way from Maty Mauk, who was excellent last season. Mauk needs to stay healthy, though, as they don't really have a capable backup. Fortunately a strong offensive line will help keep Mauk intact.
3. Florida Gators (4-4; 7-5): An easy non-conference schedule (with the exception of Florida State) helps the Gators. New offensive coordinator Kurt Roper brings in the no-huddle offense, but is it too quick for the injury-prone Gators offense? They should improve on last season's 4-8 record, and even make a bowl game, but they won't really be a force in the conference.
4. Georgia Bulldogs (4-4; 6-6): A new quarterback and trashed secondary makes the Bulldogs questionable on both sides of the ball. At least a great running game will help give new QB Hutson Mason time to develop.
5. Kentucky Wildcats (2-6; 4-8): The Wildcats have strong offensive and defensive lines, but the secondary needs some work. A good running attack is unfortunately matched with a weak passing game, led by newbie QB Patrick Towles.
6. Tennessee Volunteers (2-6; 5-7): They must improve an anemic pass attack to compete in this conference, which goes more for dynamic offenses than pounding ground games. Fortunately the defense has some high spots, although it is slower than many of their opponents' defenses.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores (0-8; 4-8): This team has a perfect storm - an unbeaten non-conference schedule matched with a winless conference schedule. The Commodores often surprise one conference team a year, so they may go 5-7, but I can't see which team they might beat.
SEC West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0; 12-0): The quarterback is a question mark, but all other areas are solid. With the quality of receivers, any quarterback will look good.
2. Auburn Tigers (6-2; 9-3): The defense was a problem last season, and they lost their two best defenders. Losing Tre Mason hurts the offense, too, but QB Nick Marshall still has an arsenal. They face an early challenge in a road trip to Manhattan, Kansas.
3. LSU Tigers (4-4; 7-5): The defense should improve, but there are questions on offense as key starters are all new: QB Brandon Harris, WR Malachi Dupre, and RB Leonard Fournette. They benefit from a nice non-conference schedule, with the exception of Wisconsin.
4. Mississippi Rebels (4-4; 7-5): If QB Bo Wallace can remain healthy, they should compete in games that they faded late last season. They have a strong offensive backfield to support Bo Wallace, and a potent defense with nine returning starters keeps their games close.
5. Texas A&M Aggies (2-6; 6-6): Their defense wasn't great last year; they won by Johnny Football outscoring opponents. Without that, this will be a rough season.
6. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6; 4-8): The Razorbacks have a strong running attack, but an anemic passing game. In this conference, that's not enough, especially since their defense is lacking.
7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-7; 4-8): Great non-conference schedule, but they'll get pulverized in the SEC
ACC Atlantic
1. Florida State Seminoles (8-0; 12-0): The defending national champs lost only 4 starters from last year's squad. They are deep enough that these loses shouldn't hurt, except they lost their two best runners. QB Jameis Winston may become the top runner this year, too. Their defense lost no punch, making this team a threat to repeat.
2. Boston College Eagles (5-3; 7-5): Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy seems a lock to start, but can he salvage a passing attack that has been moving in slow motion? At least they have a great running game and an improved defense to help them.
3. NC State Wolf Pack (4-4; 7-5): They lost their most experienced wide receivers during the off-season. Fearing an anemic passing attack, coach Dave Doeren has reinstated "indefinitely" suspended RB Shadrach Thornton to lead running attack.
4. Clemson Tigers (4-4; 6-6): This team lost ALL of the key elements of their potent passing attack. A strong defense will keep things close, but this team will need time to develop.
5. Louisville Cardinals (3-5; 5-7): Goodbye Teddy Bridgewater. New (and former) coach Bobby Petrino has a major rebuilding job, including on his own reputation.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-6; 6-6): Their bowl chances are boosted by an easy non-conference schedule. QB John Wolford is a true freshman, so this team has a learning curve.
7. Syracuse Orange (2-7; 4-8): Returning RB Prince-Tyson Gulley was the only bright spot on either side of the ball last year, and so far it looks the same.
ACC Coastal
1. Duke Blue Devils (6-2; 10-2): Despite an early loss to Miami, the Blue Devils should win the division again. Their offense proved they could keep pace with Johnny Football (and no team except Florida State can do that in this conference), and the defense should be almost as tough as last season.
2. Miami Hurricanes (5-3; 8-4): The 'Canes look okay, but injured DB Rayshawn Jenkins and a sore throwing arm on WB Jake Heaps leaves some questions about how much they can produce.
3. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-3; 8-4): The Hokies have a good secondary, but the rest of the defense has some weaknesses. The offense needs a boost, and the starting QB hasn't been decided yet. This team will start in some disarray.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-4; 7-5): Last year Tech had a great running game but a terrible passing attack. That should be similar this year. The defense kept them in games last year, and that should also be the same.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5; 4-8): The Heels have a tough road schedule. Their strong defense took a hit from departures. The core of their offense last year remains, but it'll still be a struggle.
6. Virginia Cavaliers (1-7; 3-9): Most of the defense returns, but they still have holes. The Cavs have a strong running game led by RB Kevin Parks. That's good, as their passing attack stinks.
7. Pittsburgh Panthers (0-8; 3-9): Most of last year's squad returns, but they weren't good last year.
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