This week looks more normal, as I have a reasonable split between home teams and road teams that I favor. There are still some interesting matchups that made choosing a winner difficulty, and I'll mark those.
Thursday night: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: The Panthers may have a better record, but their performances have been lackluster at best. The Saints, meanwhile, have been improving over the past couple of weeks, and I think that improvement will continue. SAINTS, 31-23
Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: Either team is really capable of winning this game. It really comes down to the powerful Cardinals defense against the effective Cowboys offense. I often choose the home team in these type of toss-ups, but I won't in this case. First of all, a strong defense can sometimes be better than a strong offense. There is also concern about Tony Romo's health, and this is the time of the season when the Cowboys start to falter. CARDINALS, 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy gets an easy opponent to continue rebuilding themselves. BENGALS, 24-16
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: Michael Vick takes over the Jets' offense, but he's cold and will sputter at first. That will help the Chiefs. CHIEFS, 27-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans: Houston is too unpredictable for me to favor them here. The Eagles will want to bounce back from their loss to the Cardinals, and they have more tools than JJ Watt can focus on. The Texans may slow down the Eagles offense, though. EAGLES, 23-21
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: Miami will play them tough, but the Chargers offense has too many tools for them to be slowed. This will be a close game, which will give the Fins fans hope, but they will ultimately fall short. CHARGERS, 27-23
Tampa Bay Bucs at Cleveland Browns: Like Cincy, the Browns get an easy opponent to continue to help the AFC North continue to be the only division without a losing team. BROWNS, 26-17
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: It's Colt McCoy versus Teddy Bridgewater, and I like what Teddy has been doing. McCoy had a good game against Dallas, but Romo's back helped Washington win. They don't have that benefit here. VIKINGS, 23-20
Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: I'd love to pick the Broncos, but Bill Belichick has come up with great defensive schemes against Peyton Manning. Last year they should have won, taking a huge lead in the first half, but then the weather and the cold chilled Peyton. I don't think they'll have cold issues this year, but I still see the Patriots holding them back. Given both teams' performances this year, this will be an offensive showdown. PATS, 34-30
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks: The 'Hawks get an easy opponent to help rebuild their home record and gain some confidence back. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams will score more than they should, thanks to a struggling 49ers defense, but the Rams defense is even worse, giving the 49ers a chance to shine. 49ERS, 27-20
Sunday night: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are on a roll, and could potentially take the AFC North lead from the Ravens, but those tenacious Ravens are most vicious with their backs against the wall. I give them an edge, but this game could easily go the other way. RAVENS, 26-24
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants: The Giants got a bye, but that won't help them. The Colts will tighten up after allowing Big Ben to have a career-high game, and their offense was kicking even in the loss. They will bowl over the Giants in an attempt to regain face. COLTS, 34-21
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 8 news and Power Rankings
I was traveling for much of Sunday, so my news and insights are based most on game summaries.
Week 8 takeaways
1. It has been tough for Super Bowl Champs to return to the playoffs the next year, but it's been even tougher for Super Bowl losers. The Broncos are looking to be that rare team that makes it, and are currently leading the AFC for the right to return to the Super Bowl. Of course, they face the Patriots this week, and nobody has stymied Peyton Manning more than the Patriots.
2. Speaking of the Patriots, what the hell happened to the Bears defense? The Patriots offense has been listless most of the season, only recently showing some muscle, and they pull off one of their best offensive performances in years. As a Bears fan, it makes me sick.
3. Speaking of performances, how about Ben Roethlisberger? The man has his best game as a pro, and it occurs wearing those damn "prison style" throwback uniforms! Maybe that's why he played so well -- he wanted to prove he deserved a better uniform.
4. Colt McCoy had a great game starting for Washington (the best game of his NFL career, in fact), but it was a rivalry game. I still think he will disappoint.
5. Two one-loss teams were defeated this week, leaving only one in each division. Not much dominance in the league this year. Six of the top ten teams lost their games (albeit two of them lost to other top ten teams). This year really shows that no outcome is certain in this league. We're also down to only five two-loss teams, and one is the Bengals, who have scored fewer points than they've allowed.
6. I heard an interesting conversation on ESPN, as two analysts were determining who was the worst team in the league. The two teams in contention? The Jets and the Bears. Granted, the Jets are poor and the Bears had a terrible game, but aren't the Raiders still the only winless team? Doesn't Jacksonville have the statistically worst offense AND the worst defense? Some people demonstrate their stupidity by the thoughtless exclusions in their conversations.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. DENVER BRONCOS (6-1) [1] : Impressive win against a strong Chargers team keeps them on top
2. Arizona Cardinals (6-1) [4] : They beat Philly to capture 2nd place
3. New England Patriots (6-2) [9] : HUGE offensive output
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) [3] : Close loss, and Romo's back might be cause for concern
5. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) [2] : Chip Kelly's offense hit a defensive brick wall in Arizona
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3) [6] : Despite a loss, the Ravens look good
7. Detroit Lions (6-2) [10] : It was a tough win, but they held out against Atlanta
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-3) [5] : Victims of Big Ben's career day
9. San Diego Chargers (5-3) [7] : No disgrace to lose to the surging Broncos
10. Green Bay Packers (5-3) [8] : Aaron Rodgers got hurt, and didn't play well
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : With KC on the cusp of the Top Ten, they can forget about Oakland
2. AFC North [3] : Cincy played well and Pittsburgh had a HUGE day. Remains the only division where all the teams have winning records
3. NFC East [2] : Their two best teams lost, but they still occupy two of the top five spots
4 (tie). NFC West [4] : Half the teams had byes, and the others won, although Seattle's win was not pretty
4 (tie). AFC East [6] : Buffalo and New England combined for nearly 100 points, and Miami had an excellent day (of course, they were playing Jacksonville)
6. NFC North [5] : Despite a Vikings win, it was a tough week for the division
7. AFC South [7] : They trail the others so much, I don't see them getting up anytime soon
8. NFC South [8] : By far the dregs of the league, no team has a winning record. If the Saints keep winning, though, they can boost the division
Week 8 takeaways
1. It has been tough for Super Bowl Champs to return to the playoffs the next year, but it's been even tougher for Super Bowl losers. The Broncos are looking to be that rare team that makes it, and are currently leading the AFC for the right to return to the Super Bowl. Of course, they face the Patriots this week, and nobody has stymied Peyton Manning more than the Patriots.
2. Speaking of the Patriots, what the hell happened to the Bears defense? The Patriots offense has been listless most of the season, only recently showing some muscle, and they pull off one of their best offensive performances in years. As a Bears fan, it makes me sick.
3. Speaking of performances, how about Ben Roethlisberger? The man has his best game as a pro, and it occurs wearing those damn "prison style" throwback uniforms! Maybe that's why he played so well -- he wanted to prove he deserved a better uniform.
4. Colt McCoy had a great game starting for Washington (the best game of his NFL career, in fact), but it was a rivalry game. I still think he will disappoint.
5. Two one-loss teams were defeated this week, leaving only one in each division. Not much dominance in the league this year. Six of the top ten teams lost their games (albeit two of them lost to other top ten teams). This year really shows that no outcome is certain in this league. We're also down to only five two-loss teams, and one is the Bengals, who have scored fewer points than they've allowed.
6. I heard an interesting conversation on ESPN, as two analysts were determining who was the worst team in the league. The two teams in contention? The Jets and the Bears. Granted, the Jets are poor and the Bears had a terrible game, but aren't the Raiders still the only winless team? Doesn't Jacksonville have the statistically worst offense AND the worst defense? Some people demonstrate their stupidity by the thoughtless exclusions in their conversations.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. DENVER BRONCOS (6-1) [1] : Impressive win against a strong Chargers team keeps them on top
2. Arizona Cardinals (6-1) [4] : They beat Philly to capture 2nd place
3. New England Patriots (6-2) [9] : HUGE offensive output
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) [3] : Close loss, and Romo's back might be cause for concern
5. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) [2] : Chip Kelly's offense hit a defensive brick wall in Arizona
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-3) [6] : Despite a loss, the Ravens look good
7. Detroit Lions (6-2) [10] : It was a tough win, but they held out against Atlanta
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-3) [5] : Victims of Big Ben's career day
9. San Diego Chargers (5-3) [7] : No disgrace to lose to the surging Broncos
10. Green Bay Packers (5-3) [8] : Aaron Rodgers got hurt, and didn't play well
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : With KC on the cusp of the Top Ten, they can forget about Oakland
2. AFC North [3] : Cincy played well and Pittsburgh had a HUGE day. Remains the only division where all the teams have winning records
3. NFC East [2] : Their two best teams lost, but they still occupy two of the top five spots
4 (tie). NFC West [4] : Half the teams had byes, and the others won, although Seattle's win was not pretty
4 (tie). AFC East [6] : Buffalo and New England combined for nearly 100 points, and Miami had an excellent day (of course, they were playing Jacksonville)
6. NFC North [5] : Despite a Vikings win, it was a tough week for the division
7. AFC South [7] : They trail the others so much, I don't see them getting up anytime soon
8. NFC South [8] : By far the dregs of the league, no team has a winning record. If the Saints keep winning, though, they can boost the division
Monday, October 27, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 10 picks
We have three games of Top 25 teams playing each other, including the first one.
Thurs Oct 30
#9 Florida State Seminoles at #22 Louisville Cardinals: This could be a pivotal game for the Seminoles. They have not been overly impressive, except the second half of the Notre Dame game. If they aren't careful, the Cardinals could unseat them from the ranks of unbeaten teams. Florida State SHOULD win the game, but we'll have to see if they DO win. FLORIDA STATE by six
Fri Oct 31
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Memphis Tigers: It's no trick, but a tremendous treat that Memphis gets to host the struggling Hurricane. Memphis still has a shot at the conference title, although East Carolina and UCF have a strong hold on the top. A win here should help. MEMPHIS by 21
Sat Nov 1
Top 25:
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Razorbacks can be tough competitors, but Dak Wallace and company seem primed to defend their Number One ranking. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 13
Florida Gators at #4 Georgia Bulldogs This battle is often fierce, and this year will be no exception. I do think Florida is overpowered here, but rival games like this one don't always follow such logic. Georgia should win, but Florida might make it interesting. GEORGIA by 11
Illinois Fighting Illini at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Illini shocked Minnesota last week with a strong first quarter, but I don't think they can duplicate that feat this week. Oh, they might have a decent first quarter, but so will Ohio State. OHIO STATE by 26
Purdue Boilermakers at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers: This one will be decided quickly. NEBRASKA by 34
#10 TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has quietly moved to second place in the Big XII behind Kansas State, but TCU has been blowing away opponents. TCU's offense is just too strong for West Virginia. TCU by 24
Kansas Jayhawks at #11 Baylor Bears: Baylor should be able to keep pace with TCU by trouncing lowly Kansas. BAYLOR by 36
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen Navy hosts the Irish, and they boast one of the most potent ground attacks in FBS. That grinding attack can exhaust many teams, but I think the Irish have the stamina to keep up with it, and fight back with an Everett Golson-led offense of their own. NOTRE DAME by 13
Stanford Cardinal at #13 Oregon Ducks: Stanford's defense has been the only one in the Pac-12 to consistently trouble the Ducks, but that defense isn't quite working as effectively this year. They might still make things tough for Oregon, but not tough enough to win. OREGON by 14
#15 Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones: I don't think the Sooners needed an extra week to prepare for this game. OKLAHOMA by 30
#16 Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins: UCLA hasn't been living up to preseason hype, and most of that falls on the shoulders of QB Brett Hundley. His Heisman hopes have evaporated, but he can redeem his season with a spirited victory over Arizona. Somehow I don't think he'll get that, as the Wildcat defense is pretty tough. ARIZONA by 16
#18 Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt isn't that large an obstacle between Duke and their second consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game. DUKE by 17
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #19 Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats lead the conference while the Cowboys are losing traction. This game could determine whether Okie State can right the ship, or if they are going down. KANSAS STATE by 13
#20 Utah Utes at #24 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils have been steadily improving each week. If that trend continues, Utah doesn't stand a chance. If Utah can find a way to stem the growing Sun tide, they might make a game of it. ARIZONA STATE by 12
#21 East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls: The Pirates seem to have a firm grip on the top of the American Athletic Conference, with only UCF as a serious contender. Temple looked good earlier in the season, but they are fading in the face of stiffer competition. EAST CAROLINA by 13
Kentucky Wildcats at #23 Missouri Tigers: Kentucky has been playing opponents tough, but they have trouble closing games against SEC opponents. They'll keep this game close, but Missouri should register another win. MISSOURI by ten
#25 USC Trojans at Washington State Cougars: The Cougars won't challenge the Trojans, we are hoping to hold on to a Top 25 ranking. USC by 27
Big Ten:
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa is trying to hand on in the tightly-contested Big Ten West race. Northwestern can be highly unpredictable, however. Iowa should win, but you can never count out the Wildcats. IOWA by 13
Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State nearly had a win against Ohio State last week, so they are playing to prove a point. That point will be stabbing Maryland right in the heart. PENN STATE by 21
Wisconsin Badgers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Wisconsin had been beating up on opponents ever since their loss to LSU, but an upset by Northwestern and a close game against Illinois seemed to take the shine off. They kicked back against Maryland last week, and they get to do it again against Rutgers. WISCONSIN by 27
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines: I think it's pretty obvious that the Head Coach position at Michigan will be vacant by season's end, but Brady Hoke is hoping to salvage it by getting a win against Indiana. They should. MICHIGAN by 13
Other Games of Interest:
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes: Miami has a better record, but these teams are actually fairly evenly matched. This could be an excellent game. Close games like this often go to the home team, and I'll continue that trend. MIAMI by four
Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Virginia has been a good team this season, but Georgia Tech is starting to distinguish themselves in the tightly-clustered ACC Coastal division. The Jackets have an annoying habit of improving as the season progresses, so they should continue to pull away from the pack. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Colorado State Rams at San Jose State Spartans: This may be Colorado State's year to advance to the Mountain West title game, and they won't let a sputtering 3-4 Spartans team derail that. COLORADO STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Auburn Tigers at #3 Ole Miss Rebels: The national pollsters really punished Ole Miss for their three-point loss to LSU. All they've done is make them mad. This will likely be another defensive battle, but this time I think the Rebs will emerge victorious. OLE MISS by six
Thurs Oct 30
#9 Florida State Seminoles at #22 Louisville Cardinals: This could be a pivotal game for the Seminoles. They have not been overly impressive, except the second half of the Notre Dame game. If they aren't careful, the Cardinals could unseat them from the ranks of unbeaten teams. Florida State SHOULD win the game, but we'll have to see if they DO win. FLORIDA STATE by six
Fri Oct 31
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Memphis Tigers: It's no trick, but a tremendous treat that Memphis gets to host the struggling Hurricane. Memphis still has a shot at the conference title, although East Carolina and UCF have a strong hold on the top. A win here should help. MEMPHIS by 21
Sat Nov 1
Top 25:
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Razorbacks can be tough competitors, but Dak Wallace and company seem primed to defend their Number One ranking. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 13
Florida Gators at #4 Georgia Bulldogs This battle is often fierce, and this year will be no exception. I do think Florida is overpowered here, but rival games like this one don't always follow such logic. Georgia should win, but Florida might make it interesting. GEORGIA by 11
Illinois Fighting Illini at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Illini shocked Minnesota last week with a strong first quarter, but I don't think they can duplicate that feat this week. Oh, they might have a decent first quarter, but so will Ohio State. OHIO STATE by 26
Purdue Boilermakers at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers: This one will be decided quickly. NEBRASKA by 34
#10 TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has quietly moved to second place in the Big XII behind Kansas State, but TCU has been blowing away opponents. TCU's offense is just too strong for West Virginia. TCU by 24
Kansas Jayhawks at #11 Baylor Bears: Baylor should be able to keep pace with TCU by trouncing lowly Kansas. BAYLOR by 36
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen Navy hosts the Irish, and they boast one of the most potent ground attacks in FBS. That grinding attack can exhaust many teams, but I think the Irish have the stamina to keep up with it, and fight back with an Everett Golson-led offense of their own. NOTRE DAME by 13
Stanford Cardinal at #13 Oregon Ducks: Stanford's defense has been the only one in the Pac-12 to consistently trouble the Ducks, but that defense isn't quite working as effectively this year. They might still make things tough for Oregon, but not tough enough to win. OREGON by 14
#15 Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones: I don't think the Sooners needed an extra week to prepare for this game. OKLAHOMA by 30
#16 Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins: UCLA hasn't been living up to preseason hype, and most of that falls on the shoulders of QB Brett Hundley. His Heisman hopes have evaporated, but he can redeem his season with a spirited victory over Arizona. Somehow I don't think he'll get that, as the Wildcat defense is pretty tough. ARIZONA by 16
#18 Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers Pitt isn't that large an obstacle between Duke and their second consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game. DUKE by 17
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #19 Kansas State Wildcats: The Wildcats lead the conference while the Cowboys are losing traction. This game could determine whether Okie State can right the ship, or if they are going down. KANSAS STATE by 13
#20 Utah Utes at #24 Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils have been steadily improving each week. If that trend continues, Utah doesn't stand a chance. If Utah can find a way to stem the growing Sun tide, they might make a game of it. ARIZONA STATE by 12
#21 East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls: The Pirates seem to have a firm grip on the top of the American Athletic Conference, with only UCF as a serious contender. Temple looked good earlier in the season, but they are fading in the face of stiffer competition. EAST CAROLINA by 13
Kentucky Wildcats at #23 Missouri Tigers: Kentucky has been playing opponents tough, but they have trouble closing games against SEC opponents. They'll keep this game close, but Missouri should register another win. MISSOURI by ten
#25 USC Trojans at Washington State Cougars: The Cougars won't challenge the Trojans, we are hoping to hold on to a Top 25 ranking. USC by 27
Big Ten:
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa is trying to hand on in the tightly-contested Big Ten West race. Northwestern can be highly unpredictable, however. Iowa should win, but you can never count out the Wildcats. IOWA by 13
Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State nearly had a win against Ohio State last week, so they are playing to prove a point. That point will be stabbing Maryland right in the heart. PENN STATE by 21
Wisconsin Badgers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Wisconsin had been beating up on opponents ever since their loss to LSU, but an upset by Northwestern and a close game against Illinois seemed to take the shine off. They kicked back against Maryland last week, and they get to do it again against Rutgers. WISCONSIN by 27
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines: I think it's pretty obvious that the Head Coach position at Michigan will be vacant by season's end, but Brady Hoke is hoping to salvage it by getting a win against Indiana. They should. MICHIGAN by 13
Other Games of Interest:
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes: Miami has a better record, but these teams are actually fairly evenly matched. This could be an excellent game. Close games like this often go to the home team, and I'll continue that trend. MIAMI by four
Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Virginia has been a good team this season, but Georgia Tech is starting to distinguish themselves in the tightly-clustered ACC Coastal division. The Jackets have an annoying habit of improving as the season progresses, so they should continue to pull away from the pack. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Colorado State Rams at San Jose State Spartans: This may be Colorado State's year to advance to the Mountain West title game, and they won't let a sputtering 3-4 Spartans team derail that. COLORADO STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #5 Auburn Tigers at #3 Ole Miss Rebels: The national pollsters really punished Ole Miss for their three-point loss to LSU. All they've done is make them mad. This will likely be another defensive battle, but this time I think the Rebs will emerge victorious. OLE MISS by six
NCAA 2014 Week 9 results and Top 25
Not very many surprises this week, and that caused little rumbling in the rankings. The big upset was LSU's defeat of Ole Miss in a classic 10-7 defensive battle. That leaves only three unbeaten teams. Now the Egg Bowl gets interesting. If Ole Miss wins, the only team from a Power 5 conference who is unbeaten would be Florida State, unless they falter before then (always a possibility, as they have been playing mediocre ball for most of the season).
A less noticeable upset occurred in my own Big Ten, as Illinois gained their first Big Ten conference victory in two years, and did it by knocking off division leading Minnesota. Now Nebraska leads the Big Ten West, and controls their destiny in that division.
Two games had surprising results. West Virginia wiped out Oklahoma State, which may remove the Cowboys from any reasonable chance at the conference title. Arizona State outplayed Washington, knocking the Huskies out of the Top 25 and making the Pac-12 South race very interesting.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (7-0) [2] : One team from Mississippi is replaced with another
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [3] : Great win over a young Tennessee squad
3. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1) [1] : Despite the loss, still the best defense in the SEC
4. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [4]
5. Auburn Tigers (6-1) [5]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [6] : It should not have taken two overtimes to beat Penn State, but they still maintain a tenuous lead over Nebraska and Michigan State in the rankings
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) [7] : Now a division leader and favorite to reach the conference title game
8. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [8] : They spanked their in-state rival and are bracing for Ohio State
9. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [9]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (6-1) [10] : Now that score was just mean, leaving in their starters for so long
11. Baylor Bears (6-1) [11]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [12]
13. Oregon Ducks (7-1) [13] : Nice game, but not quite nice enough to move up
14. LSU Tigers (7-2) [15] : They beat the top team, but still languish below one-loss teams
15. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [14]
16. Arizona Wildcats (6-1) [16]
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-0) [17]
18. Duke Blue Devils (6-1) [18]
19. Kansas State Wildcats (6-1) [19]
20. Utah Utes (6-1) [21] : Knocked off USC to challenge the two schools from Arizona for division title
21. East Carolina Pirates (6-1) [24]
22. Louisville Cardinals (6-2) [23]
23. Missouri Tigers (6-2) [25]
24. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-1) [26] : Back in the Top 25 and chasing a division title
25. USC Trojans (5-3)
Dropped off: Washington Huskies [#22]
On the Edge: Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Colorado State Rams (7-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2), Clemson Tigers (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-2), Stanford Cardinal (5-3)
A less noticeable upset occurred in my own Big Ten, as Illinois gained their first Big Ten conference victory in two years, and did it by knocking off division leading Minnesota. Now Nebraska leads the Big Ten West, and controls their destiny in that division.
Two games had surprising results. West Virginia wiped out Oklahoma State, which may remove the Cowboys from any reasonable chance at the conference title. Arizona State outplayed Washington, knocking the Huskies out of the Top 25 and making the Pac-12 South race very interesting.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (7-0) [2] : One team from Mississippi is replaced with another
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1) [3] : Great win over a young Tennessee squad
3. Ole Miss Rebels (7-1) [1] : Despite the loss, still the best defense in the SEC
4. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [4]
5. Auburn Tigers (6-1) [5]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [6] : It should not have taken two overtimes to beat Penn State, but they still maintain a tenuous lead over Nebraska and Michigan State in the rankings
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) [7] : Now a division leader and favorite to reach the conference title game
8. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [8] : They spanked their in-state rival and are bracing for Ohio State
9. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [9]
10. TCU Horned Frogs (6-1) [10] : Now that score was just mean, leaving in their starters for so long
11. Baylor Bears (6-1) [11]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [12]
13. Oregon Ducks (7-1) [13] : Nice game, but not quite nice enough to move up
14. LSU Tigers (7-2) [15] : They beat the top team, but still languish below one-loss teams
15. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [14]
16. Arizona Wildcats (6-1) [16]
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (8-0) [17]
18. Duke Blue Devils (6-1) [18]
19. Kansas State Wildcats (6-1) [19]
20. Utah Utes (6-1) [21] : Knocked off USC to challenge the two schools from Arizona for division title
21. East Carolina Pirates (6-1) [24]
22. Louisville Cardinals (6-2) [23]
23. Missouri Tigers (6-2) [25]
24. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-1) [26] : Back in the Top 25 and chasing a division title
25. USC Trojans (5-3)
Dropped off: Washington Huskies [#22]
On the Edge: Wisconsin Badgers (5-2), Colorado State Rams (7-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2), Clemson Tigers (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-2), Stanford Cardinal (5-3)
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 8 picks
This is the type of week that I dread -- where I favor WAY too many visiting teams. I just beginning to recover from my abyssmal first two weeks of the season, and now I face another disaster. Oh well, not much to do about that.
Thursday night: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: This game is the battle for the lead in the AFC West. San Diego had been leading, but the Broncos have been improving recently. I usually favor the home game in these situations, especially since both teams rely more on offense than defense, and I'll do that. Watch out for San Diego, though. BRONCOS, 34-30
Sunday morning (London game): Detroit Lions v Atlanta Falcons: This one does quite concern me as much as other road games, as BOTH teams are on the road. The Lions offense is doing okay, but their real power lies on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons have crumbled against tough defenses this season, and that will likely happen again. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: The Jets may have battled hard against their rival Patriots, but that may have exhausted them. Of course, the Bills are used to close wins, so this one may end up the same way. BILLS, 23-20
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: If anyone would have shut out the Bengals, I would have picked the Ravens. I don't think they'll suffer two in a row, but this will be a pretty one-sided game unless the Bengals get themselves straightened out quickly. RAVENS, 26-13
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: The Pats are clicking, while the Bears are floundering. Worse, their run defense can't stop anyone, which gives Bill Belichick a chance to really control the flow of the game. PATS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: The Texans may be nose-diving, but they are still a better team than the Titans. Hell, JJ Watt alone can beat the Titans. TEXANS, 24-16
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their first game last week, but they won't make it two in a row. DOLPHINS, 23-13
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs could really win this game, but I am hesitant to pick them. They falter at the worst times, and they could do that this week. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to show some of his college flair, and the Bucs defense can't stop anything. Watch for the upset, but I have to favor another road team. VIKINGS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: Here's another ripe upset, but for other reasons. The Seahawks have lost two in a row, and I doubt Coach Carroll will let it go to three in a row. However, the Panthers have an annoying habit of playing up to the level of their opponents (or playing down when they get overconfident), and beating the defending Super Bowl Champ would be a great incentive. Still, I'll pick Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are finding some life, which should be enough to overcome the struggling Rams, especially with the defense the Chiefs have shown. CHIEFS, 26-20
Sunday late games:
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers offense scored 24 points in a short period at the end of the first half, but that's not normal for them. They won't be able to keep up with the Colts offense. COLTS, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: At the start of the season, I thought might be Oakland's best chance to score a victory, but the Browns are actually doing well. The have to favor them, especially since I'm not picking very many home teams. BROWNS, 23-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: The high-powered offense of the Eagles meets the stingy defense of the Cardinals. Usually I favor the defense here, especially when it's the home team, but the Eagles move so fast I'm not sure the Cards can keep up. This may be a game that goes the other way, though, if I'm wrong about the speed of Arizona's defense. EAGLES, 30-23
Sunday night: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints will keep this close, but I think they will ultimately fall short. They are starting to argue among themselves, and that's when they self-destruct. PACKERS, 27-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: Here's where the Redskins will regret putting McCoy under center. The Cowboys defense will hound him incessantly, and the Cowboys offense will roll. COWBOYS, 31-13
Thursday night: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: This game is the battle for the lead in the AFC West. San Diego had been leading, but the Broncos have been improving recently. I usually favor the home game in these situations, especially since both teams rely more on offense than defense, and I'll do that. Watch out for San Diego, though. BRONCOS, 34-30
Sunday morning (London game): Detroit Lions v Atlanta Falcons: This one does quite concern me as much as other road games, as BOTH teams are on the road. The Lions offense is doing okay, but their real power lies on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons have crumbled against tough defenses this season, and that will likely happen again. LIONS, 24-13
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: The Jets may have battled hard against their rival Patriots, but that may have exhausted them. Of course, the Bills are used to close wins, so this one may end up the same way. BILLS, 23-20
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: If anyone would have shut out the Bengals, I would have picked the Ravens. I don't think they'll suffer two in a row, but this will be a pretty one-sided game unless the Bengals get themselves straightened out quickly. RAVENS, 26-13
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: The Pats are clicking, while the Bears are floundering. Worse, their run defense can't stop anyone, which gives Bill Belichick a chance to really control the flow of the game. PATS, 27-20
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: The Texans may be nose-diving, but they are still a better team than the Titans. Hell, JJ Watt alone can beat the Titans. TEXANS, 24-16
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags won their first game last week, but they won't make it two in a row. DOLPHINS, 23-13
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs could really win this game, but I am hesitant to pick them. They falter at the worst times, and they could do that this week. Teddy Bridgewater is starting to show some of his college flair, and the Bucs defense can't stop anything. Watch for the upset, but I have to favor another road team. VIKINGS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: Here's another ripe upset, but for other reasons. The Seahawks have lost two in a row, and I doubt Coach Carroll will let it go to three in a row. However, the Panthers have an annoying habit of playing up to the level of their opponents (or playing down when they get overconfident), and beating the defending Super Bowl Champ would be a great incentive. Still, I'll pick Seattle. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
St Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are finding some life, which should be enough to overcome the struggling Rams, especially with the defense the Chiefs have shown. CHIEFS, 26-20
Sunday late games:
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers offense scored 24 points in a short period at the end of the first half, but that's not normal for them. They won't be able to keep up with the Colts offense. COLTS, 31-20
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: At the start of the season, I thought might be Oakland's best chance to score a victory, but the Browns are actually doing well. The have to favor them, especially since I'm not picking very many home teams. BROWNS, 23-13
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: The high-powered offense of the Eagles meets the stingy defense of the Cardinals. Usually I favor the defense here, especially when it's the home team, but the Eagles move so fast I'm not sure the Cards can keep up. This may be a game that goes the other way, though, if I'm wrong about the speed of Arizona's defense. EAGLES, 30-23
Sunday night: Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints: The Saints will keep this close, but I think they will ultimately fall short. They are starting to argue among themselves, and that's when they self-destruct. PACKERS, 27-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: Here's where the Redskins will regret putting McCoy under center. The Cowboys defense will hound him incessantly, and the Cowboys offense will roll. COWBOYS, 31-13
NFL 2014 Week 7 news and Power Rankings
I'm splitting my NFL blog posts into two, just like the NCAA. I used to provide my insight into current news and events in the NFL, but have not done that for a couple of years. I'd like to get back to that, so I will include news and insights into my weekly results, and have my picks be an entirely separate post.
Week7 takeaways
1. It appears Seattle is starting to suffer the same "Super Bowl Champ" curse that has plagued previous champions. Getting to the playoffs as a wildcard team is looking tougher; they must get their act together if they want to be that rare Super Bowl Champion who makes the playoffs the following week.
2. The Bengals are starting to suffer the same collapse being experienced by the Texans. First they tie Carolina, a team that had a negative difference between points scored and points allowed, and now they get shut out by Indianapolis, a team known more for their offense than their defense. Cincy is now the only team in the AFC North with a negative point differential, and they are operating like a listless ship. They need to get their act together, and soon.
3. The records of both the Bills and the Saints may be deceptive. The Saints have a losing record, but they are close in most of their games, so they could just as easily win as lose. The Bills are the exact opposite -- they have a winning record, but they beat weak teams (like the Vikings) by the slimmest of margins. The Bills are boosted by a weak schedule.
4. The 49ers defense is struggling. If the past two weeks are an indication, their defense is collapsing. With their schedule, that could cost them a winning record.
5. The Jags win leaves only one winless team, the Oakland Raiders.
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. DENVER BRONCOS (5-1) [4] : The Broncos overpowered San Francisco and allowed Peyton to set a new NFL record for career touchdown passes
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) [2]
3. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) [3] : The Cowboys are building up a huge streak of wins. Could even THEY believe their late season collapse is looming?
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-1) [7] : I'll admit, this is not the NFC West team I expected to find in the Top Five at this time of the season
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [5] : Shutting out Cincinnati proved the Colts have a defense to go with their offense
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [6] : Their defense held Atlanta to a single score
7. San Diego Chargers (5-2) [1] : KC knocked them off, and now they face the Broncos on Thursday night
8. Green Bay Packers (5-2) [10] : Green Bay slaughtered Carolina, propelling them into the upper echelons of the NFL
9. New England Patriots (5-2) [9] : They held back the Jets, but the defense needs some work
10. Detroit Lions (5-2) [11] : Holding back New Orleans earns them a Top Ten spot
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [3] : This division has both the new top team in the league and the new bottom team in the league
2. NFC East [2] : Any division that has two one-loss teams deserves to be near the top
3. AFC North [1] : These three divisions have pulled away from the rest of the league
4. NFC West [4] : With both San Francisco and Seattle suffering, this division could be poised for a fall
5. NFC North [5] : With two teams now in the Top Ten, this division still has power
6. AFC East [7] : Wins by Buffalo and Miami helped the division this week, but I don't know if that will last
7. AFC South [6] : Despite Jacksonville's first win, the Colts remain the only bright spot in this division
8. NFC South [8] : No team has a winning record
Week 7 Commentary
The administration of the Washington Redskins has made it very clear that they never really liked Kirk Cousins being there. Last year, when RGIII went down with injury, Cousins came in and performed great; sometimes putting up better numbers than Griffin had. This year RGIII again went down quickly to injury, and Cousins has played well. The Redskins have been losing due to poor defense, not due to Cousins. Yet, he has one bad game, Colt McCoy comes in and leads them on a game-winning TD drive, and now McCoy is the designated starter until RGIII returns, delegating Cousins to third string.
This is a completely ridiculous decision. Remember Washington already had scored 12 points with Cousins under center, and were down by only five points. It's not like McCoy engineered an amazing comeback. Furthermore, Colt McCoy has failed to impress in all of his previous NFL stops, including the pathetic Cleveland Browns. McCoy also had a poor preseason. Clearly Gruden, Snyder, and company were just waiting for Cousins to mess up.
Cousins should demand to be traded, and do it now. As soon as McCoy reverts to his normal mediocracy and poor ball management, they will regret giving him control, and may block Cousins from leaving. Cousins can move to a team that needs a strong and stable QB, like Oakland. He could move to a team that needs a decent back-up to support a team who needs it, like Chicago. God knows Cousins would have good receiving tools in Chicago, and he grew up in the Midwest.
Week7 takeaways
1. It appears Seattle is starting to suffer the same "Super Bowl Champ" curse that has plagued previous champions. Getting to the playoffs as a wildcard team is looking tougher; they must get their act together if they want to be that rare Super Bowl Champion who makes the playoffs the following week.
2. The Bengals are starting to suffer the same collapse being experienced by the Texans. First they tie Carolina, a team that had a negative difference between points scored and points allowed, and now they get shut out by Indianapolis, a team known more for their offense than their defense. Cincy is now the only team in the AFC North with a negative point differential, and they are operating like a listless ship. They need to get their act together, and soon.
3. The records of both the Bills and the Saints may be deceptive. The Saints have a losing record, but they are close in most of their games, so they could just as easily win as lose. The Bills are the exact opposite -- they have a winning record, but they beat weak teams (like the Vikings) by the slimmest of margins. The Bills are boosted by a weak schedule.
4. The 49ers defense is struggling. If the past two weeks are an indication, their defense is collapsing. With their schedule, that could cost them a winning record.
5. The Jags win leaves only one winless team, the Oakland Raiders.
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. DENVER BRONCOS (5-1) [4] : The Broncos overpowered San Francisco and allowed Peyton to set a new NFL record for career touchdown passes
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) [2]
3. Dallas Cowboys (6-1) [3] : The Cowboys are building up a huge streak of wins. Could even THEY believe their late season collapse is looming?
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-1) [7] : I'll admit, this is not the NFC West team I expected to find in the Top Five at this time of the season
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [5] : Shutting out Cincinnati proved the Colts have a defense to go with their offense
6. Baltimore Ravens (5-2) [6] : Their defense held Atlanta to a single score
7. San Diego Chargers (5-2) [1] : KC knocked them off, and now they face the Broncos on Thursday night
8. Green Bay Packers (5-2) [10] : Green Bay slaughtered Carolina, propelling them into the upper echelons of the NFL
9. New England Patriots (5-2) [9] : They held back the Jets, but the defense needs some work
10. Detroit Lions (5-2) [11] : Holding back New Orleans earns them a Top Ten spot
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [3] : This division has both the new top team in the league and the new bottom team in the league
2. NFC East [2] : Any division that has two one-loss teams deserves to be near the top
3. AFC North [1] : These three divisions have pulled away from the rest of the league
4. NFC West [4] : With both San Francisco and Seattle suffering, this division could be poised for a fall
5. NFC North [5] : With two teams now in the Top Ten, this division still has power
6. AFC East [7] : Wins by Buffalo and Miami helped the division this week, but I don't know if that will last
7. AFC South [6] : Despite Jacksonville's first win, the Colts remain the only bright spot in this division
8. NFC South [8] : No team has a winning record
Week 7 Commentary
The administration of the Washington Redskins has made it very clear that they never really liked Kirk Cousins being there. Last year, when RGIII went down with injury, Cousins came in and performed great; sometimes putting up better numbers than Griffin had. This year RGIII again went down quickly to injury, and Cousins has played well. The Redskins have been losing due to poor defense, not due to Cousins. Yet, he has one bad game, Colt McCoy comes in and leads them on a game-winning TD drive, and now McCoy is the designated starter until RGIII returns, delegating Cousins to third string.
This is a completely ridiculous decision. Remember Washington already had scored 12 points with Cousins under center, and were down by only five points. It's not like McCoy engineered an amazing comeback. Furthermore, Colt McCoy has failed to impress in all of his previous NFL stops, including the pathetic Cleveland Browns. McCoy also had a poor preseason. Clearly Gruden, Snyder, and company were just waiting for Cousins to mess up.
Cousins should demand to be traded, and do it now. As soon as McCoy reverts to his normal mediocracy and poor ball management, they will regret giving him control, and may block Cousins from leaving. Cousins can move to a team that needs a strong and stable QB, like Oakland. He could move to a team that needs a decent back-up to support a team who needs it, like Chicago. God knows Cousins would have good receiving tools in Chicago, and he grew up in the Midwest.
NCAA 2014 Week 9 picks
Once again, I ignore the Tuesday Sun Belt game. It's also a relatively quiet week for Top 25 teams, with many taking a bye.
Thurs Oct 23
UConn Huskies at #24 East Carolina Pirates: It's a battle of the top team in the American Athletic Conference versus the bottom team in the conference. No contest. EAST CAROLINA by 33
Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this contest could end up either way. Miami is a scrappy team, but the Hokies have had some better performances this season, so I will favor them. VIRGINIA TECH by three
Fri Oct 24
BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos: BYU has collapsed the past three weeks, losing consecutive games against weaker opposition. I think the losing streak will continue, but at least they have some consolation -- they can lose to a better team this time. BOISE STATE by 13
#13 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears: Oregon is the highest-ranked Pac-12 team, but they know they need to impress to climb into the playoff picture with one loss. Cal might fight early, but I think Oregon will wear them down in the second half. OREGON by 20
Sat Oct 25
Top 25:
#2 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: It was bound to happen. Last week the air went out of Kentucky's sails. Facing the consistently-best offense in the SEC will deflate it further. MISS STATE by 23
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee has played well, but they are still looking for their first conference win of the year. Keep looking, guys, as Alabama know has something to prove. ALABAMA by 26
South Carolina Gamecocks at #5 Auburn Tigers: The Gamecocks are suffering from a mediocre team and a season of powerhouse teams in the SEC. The domination of SEC West over SEC East will continue. AUBURN by 17
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: No team in the Big Ten has generated as many dominant performances than Ohio State. Penn State looked good in non-conference play, but has struggled since starting the Big Ten season. Those struggles will continue. OHIO STATE by 28
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Rutgers actually hasn't done too badly in their first season in the Big Ten. They defend the run well, which will slow down Nebraska. Slow down, but not stop. NEBRASKA by 13
Michigan Wolverines at #8 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans have won five of their last six against their state rival, and they haven't been in such a great situation. Since the loss to Oregon, Michigan State has wiped out nearly every opponent (only Nebraska held them within ten), while Michigan has struggled. The Wolverines shocked Penn State to win their first conference game, but still flounder at 2-4. MICHIGAN STATE by 26
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #10 TCU Horned Frogs: While Kansas State is the only team unbeaten in Big XII play, TCU is the conference's best hope for the playoffs. They know it, and they know they need to post impressive wins from this point forward. Expect one here. TCU by 33
#16 Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars: The 5-1 Wildcats face the worst team in the Pac-12 North. Not a difficult pick. ARIZONA by 24
Florida Atlantic Owls at #17 Marshall Thundering Herd: Also not a tough pick, as Marshall has been manhandling opponents. MARSHALL by lots
Texas Longhorns at #19 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas State will continue their conference unbeaten streak while Texas continues to rebuild and find themselves. KANSAS STATE by 20
#20 USC Trojans at #21 Utah Utes: The Trojans have had only three overwhelming victories this season. The first was followed by a poor 13-10 home win, the next followed by a road loss. The third occurred last week. I think USC will win, but it will be a close road victory that won't help their ranking. USC by six
Arizona State Sun Devils at #22 Washington Huskies: The Huskies suffered their second conference loss last week. Arizona State wins, but not impressively. Either team could win this game. I think Washington will correct some of the problems experienced last week and eke out a win. WASHINGTON by four
Vanderbilt Commodores at #25 Missouri Tigers: Missouri rebounded from a huge shutout administered by Georgia to pound Florida and take control of second place in the SEC East. Vandy hasn't won an SEC game this season, and they may not. MISSOURI by 30
Big Ten:
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Oh, well, another tough year for my Illini as the Gophers continue their lead in the Big Ten West. MINNESOTA by 31
Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers: The Terps may have surprised Iowa last week, but Wisconsin's crushing ground attack will wear them down. The Terps just aren't used to that kind of punishment from the former Big East. WISCONSIN by 16
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes: The Bruins get to take a week to get their heads on straight as they roll over the worst team in the conference. UCLA by 23
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys got lassoed by TCU last week after beating Kansas by only seven, but they are still favored against West Virginia. That's because the Mountaineers only impressive win against a FBS opponent came last week. That may have been a fluke. I think the Cowboys will stand taller in the saddle this week, although West Virginia may give them some trouble. OKLAHOMA STATE by 13
Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams: These Cowboys, though, don't stand much of a chance, as the Rams seem poised to run away with the Mountain West title, if they can get past Boise State. COLORADO STATE by 26
GAME OF THE WEEK -- #1 Ole Miss Rebels at #15 LSU Tigers: Ole Miss has the best defense in the conference, so LSU's inconsistent offense will struggle. LSU has a decent defense itself, so this game may be similar to the start of the game against Tennessee last week. Don't be surprised by a 3-3 tie at halftime, or perhaps a 6-3 Ole Miss lead. However, the halftime adjustments made by Coach Freeze and Bo Wallace will have Ole Miss moving better in the second half, allowing the Rebs to pull away. OLE MISS by 13
Thurs Oct 23
UConn Huskies at #24 East Carolina Pirates: It's a battle of the top team in the American Athletic Conference versus the bottom team in the conference. No contest. EAST CAROLINA by 33
Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this contest could end up either way. Miami is a scrappy team, but the Hokies have had some better performances this season, so I will favor them. VIRGINIA TECH by three
Fri Oct 24
BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos: BYU has collapsed the past three weeks, losing consecutive games against weaker opposition. I think the losing streak will continue, but at least they have some consolation -- they can lose to a better team this time. BOISE STATE by 13
#13 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears: Oregon is the highest-ranked Pac-12 team, but they know they need to impress to climb into the playoff picture with one loss. Cal might fight early, but I think Oregon will wear them down in the second half. OREGON by 20
Sat Oct 25
Top 25:
#2 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats: It was bound to happen. Last week the air went out of Kentucky's sails. Facing the consistently-best offense in the SEC will deflate it further. MISS STATE by 23
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee has played well, but they are still looking for their first conference win of the year. Keep looking, guys, as Alabama know has something to prove. ALABAMA by 26
South Carolina Gamecocks at #5 Auburn Tigers: The Gamecocks are suffering from a mediocre team and a season of powerhouse teams in the SEC. The domination of SEC West over SEC East will continue. AUBURN by 17
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: No team in the Big Ten has generated as many dominant performances than Ohio State. Penn State looked good in non-conference play, but has struggled since starting the Big Ten season. Those struggles will continue. OHIO STATE by 28
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Rutgers actually hasn't done too badly in their first season in the Big Ten. They defend the run well, which will slow down Nebraska. Slow down, but not stop. NEBRASKA by 13
Michigan Wolverines at #8 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans have won five of their last six against their state rival, and they haven't been in such a great situation. Since the loss to Oregon, Michigan State has wiped out nearly every opponent (only Nebraska held them within ten), while Michigan has struggled. The Wolverines shocked Penn State to win their first conference game, but still flounder at 2-4. MICHIGAN STATE by 26
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #10 TCU Horned Frogs: While Kansas State is the only team unbeaten in Big XII play, TCU is the conference's best hope for the playoffs. They know it, and they know they need to post impressive wins from this point forward. Expect one here. TCU by 33
#16 Arizona Wildcats at Washington State Cougars: The 5-1 Wildcats face the worst team in the Pac-12 North. Not a difficult pick. ARIZONA by 24
Florida Atlantic Owls at #17 Marshall Thundering Herd: Also not a tough pick, as Marshall has been manhandling opponents. MARSHALL by lots
Texas Longhorns at #19 Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas State will continue their conference unbeaten streak while Texas continues to rebuild and find themselves. KANSAS STATE by 20
#20 USC Trojans at #21 Utah Utes: The Trojans have had only three overwhelming victories this season. The first was followed by a poor 13-10 home win, the next followed by a road loss. The third occurred last week. I think USC will win, but it will be a close road victory that won't help their ranking. USC by six
Arizona State Sun Devils at #22 Washington Huskies: The Huskies suffered their second conference loss last week. Arizona State wins, but not impressively. Either team could win this game. I think Washington will correct some of the problems experienced last week and eke out a win. WASHINGTON by four
Vanderbilt Commodores at #25 Missouri Tigers: Missouri rebounded from a huge shutout administered by Georgia to pound Florida and take control of second place in the SEC East. Vandy hasn't won an SEC game this season, and they may not. MISSOURI by 30
Big Ten:
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Oh, well, another tough year for my Illini as the Gophers continue their lead in the Big Ten West. MINNESOTA by 31
Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers: The Terps may have surprised Iowa last week, but Wisconsin's crushing ground attack will wear them down. The Terps just aren't used to that kind of punishment from the former Big East. WISCONSIN by 16
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes: The Bruins get to take a week to get their heads on straight as they roll over the worst team in the conference. UCLA by 23
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys got lassoed by TCU last week after beating Kansas by only seven, but they are still favored against West Virginia. That's because the Mountaineers only impressive win against a FBS opponent came last week. That may have been a fluke. I think the Cowboys will stand taller in the saddle this week, although West Virginia may give them some trouble. OKLAHOMA STATE by 13
Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State Rams: These Cowboys, though, don't stand much of a chance, as the Rams seem poised to run away with the Mountain West title, if they can get past Boise State. COLORADO STATE by 26
GAME OF THE WEEK -- #1 Ole Miss Rebels at #15 LSU Tigers: Ole Miss has the best defense in the conference, so LSU's inconsistent offense will struggle. LSU has a decent defense itself, so this game may be similar to the start of the game against Tennessee last week. Don't be surprised by a 3-3 tie at halftime, or perhaps a 6-3 Ole Miss lead. However, the halftime adjustments made by Coach Freeze and Bo Wallace will have Ole Miss moving better in the second half, allowing the Rebs to pull away. OLE MISS by 13
Sunday, October 19, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 8 results and Top 25
Three more teams fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving just four unbeaten teams. Since one is Marshall and the other two will face each other in November, we are guaranteed that at least half of the playoff teams will have one loss.
This week was filled with upsets and surprise results. Ranked teams saw some of them, as West Virginia shocked previously unbeaten Baylor and Kansas State handed Oklahoma their second loss. TCU blew away Oklahoma State and LSU manhandled Kentucky. Oregon overwhelmed Washington. Florida looked pathetic as Missouri rolled. Strangely, the Tigers produced only one offensive touchdown and just slightly more than 100 yards, yet four Florida turnovers and a special teams touchdown elevated Missouri.
The non-ranked teams saw their fair share of unexpected results, as well. Maryland upset Iowa to ensure Minnesota sole control of the Big Ten West, and Nevada upset BYU to hand them their third loss in four games.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (7-0) [1] : Another strong defensive performance gave their offense time to find ways around Tennessee's defense
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [2]
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) [8] : They handed A&M their first shut-out in decades as the Tide recover from their one-point victory over Arkansas last week
4. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [6] : The Bulldogs have an outstanding game to propel them into the Top Five
5. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [5]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [7] : Another huge performance for JT Barrett, making Buckeye fans forget Braxton Miller
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) [9]
8. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [12] : The Spartans matched Ohio State's score for another dominating win
9. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [13] : They played the best I've seen them play all year, and fought back against a tough Irish team
10. TCU Horned Frogs (5-1) [11] : Huge blowout of Oklahoma State
11. Baylor Bears (6-1) [3]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [4]
13. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [14] : Knocked around Washington pretty well
14. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [10]
15. LSU Tigers (6-2) [17]
16. Arizona Wildcats (5-1) [16]
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0) [18]
18. Duke Blue Devils (6-1) [19]
19. Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) [25] : Excellent game against Oklahoma. They passed their test
20. USC Trojans (5-2) [NR] : They return to the tTop 25 with a great victory
21. Utah Utes (5-1) [22]
22. Washington Huskies (5-2) [15]
23. Louisville Cardinals (6-2) [30] : Huge game propels them into the Top 25
24. East Carolina Pirates (5-1) [27]
25. Missouri Tigers (5-2) [NR] : They manhandled Florida to regain a rank
Dropped off: Texas A&M Aggies [#20], Kentucky Wildcats [#21], Stanford Cardinal [#23], Florida Gators [#24]
On the Edge: Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1), UCLA Bruins (5-2), Wisconsin Badgers (4-2), Colorado State Rams (6-1), Clemson Tigers (5-2), Boise State Broncos (5-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2)
This week was filled with upsets and surprise results. Ranked teams saw some of them, as West Virginia shocked previously unbeaten Baylor and Kansas State handed Oklahoma their second loss. TCU blew away Oklahoma State and LSU manhandled Kentucky. Oregon overwhelmed Washington. Florida looked pathetic as Missouri rolled. Strangely, the Tigers produced only one offensive touchdown and just slightly more than 100 yards, yet four Florida turnovers and a special teams touchdown elevated Missouri.
The non-ranked teams saw their fair share of unexpected results, as well. Maryland upset Iowa to ensure Minnesota sole control of the Big Ten West, and Nevada upset BYU to hand them their third loss in four games.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (7-0) [1] : Another strong defensive performance gave their offense time to find ways around Tennessee's defense
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [2]
3. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) [8] : They handed A&M their first shut-out in decades as the Tide recover from their one-point victory over Arkansas last week
4. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) [6] : The Bulldogs have an outstanding game to propel them into the Top Five
5. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [5]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [7] : Another huge performance for JT Barrett, making Buckeye fans forget Braxton Miller
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) [9]
8. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [12] : The Spartans matched Ohio State's score for another dominating win
9. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [13] : They played the best I've seen them play all year, and fought back against a tough Irish team
10. TCU Horned Frogs (5-1) [11] : Huge blowout of Oklahoma State
11. Baylor Bears (6-1) [3]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [4]
13. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [14] : Knocked around Washington pretty well
14. Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) [10]
15. LSU Tigers (6-2) [17]
16. Arizona Wildcats (5-1) [16]
17. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0) [18]
18. Duke Blue Devils (6-1) [19]
19. Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) [25] : Excellent game against Oklahoma. They passed their test
20. USC Trojans (5-2) [NR] : They return to the tTop 25 with a great victory
21. Utah Utes (5-1) [22]
22. Washington Huskies (5-2) [15]
23. Louisville Cardinals (6-2) [30] : Huge game propels them into the Top 25
24. East Carolina Pirates (5-1) [27]
25. Missouri Tigers (5-2) [NR] : They manhandled Florida to regain a rank
Dropped off: Texas A&M Aggies [#20], Kentucky Wildcats [#21], Stanford Cardinal [#23], Florida Gators [#24]
On the Edge: Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1), UCLA Bruins (5-2), Wisconsin Badgers (4-2), Colorado State Rams (6-1), Clemson Tigers (5-2), Boise State Broncos (5-2), West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2)
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 6 Power Rankings and Week 7 picks
Fewer upsets led to less shake-up in the Power Rankings. We might be settling down and seeing how teams really are doing this season.
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-1) [1] : There may not be a more complete team in the league
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) [3] : A shut-out against the Giants, whose offense had been working recent weeks, leaps them over Dallas
3. Dallas Cowboys (5-1) [2] : They beat the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Home of the 12th Man, where Seattle had only lost one game in their last 20
4. Denver Broncos (4-1) [8] : They had a dominant performance against the Jets
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-2) [4] : Houston couldn't stop their offense, but they pointed out some defensive flaws
6. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) [7] : They had one of their best offensive performances in years, and most of it was in the first quarter
7. Arizona Cardinals (4-1) [9] : Blew away Washington
8. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) [6] : The tie hurt them, especially since they had a chance to win in regulation AND a chance to win in overtime
9. New England Patriots (4-2) [14] : The Pats return to the Top Ten as their offense continues to get comfortable
10. Green Bay Packers (4-2) [10]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [2] : This is the only division without a losing team
2. NFC East [1] : Philly and Dallas are two of the top teams in the league
3. AFC West [3] : Ditto San Diego and Denver, plus the Chiefs defense is tough
4. NFC West [4] : St Louis is the only losing team, and they can play opponents close
5. NFC North [5] : If Minnesota can get a healthy QB, this division could tighten up
6. AFC South [6] : With Houston falling, the Colts may end up carrying this division
7. AFC East [7] : The Pats have resumed their rightful place atop this division, but Buffalo and Miami won't make it easy
8. NFC South [8] : NONE of the teams have a positive point differential
Week 7 picks
I favor nearly all of the home teams this week. This is not as dangerous as favoring most of the road teams, but it is still rare for a near-home sweep, so there will be a couple of upsets. Can I spot them?
Thursday night: New York Jets at New England Patriots: The Patriots will have this one easily. The Jets defense is strong, but only on the running side of the ball. Brady's passing game will pick them apart. PATS, 27-13
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league, which doesn't bode well for the inconsistent, and currently struggling, Falcons offense. RAVENS, 28-13
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: Cam ran more last week, and they were able to tie a Top Ten team. Can they do that again? Not against the Packer line. Also, they will find Aaron Rodgers harder to bother than Andy Dalton. PACK, 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: The Panthers hurt Cincy by running Cam Newton. Andrew Luck is not a scrambling QB, but he's also a much better passer. COLTS, 30-24
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: Cleveland's reward for beating their divisional opponent last week? They face the worst team in the league. BROWNS, 28-13
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: Historically, the Bears have a hard time against Miami, but it's easier for them at home. BEARS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: Teddy Bridgewater is facing protection issues, and the Bills can rush. They also have a stiff defensive line, making the Vikings running attack hard. Kyle Orton makes the Bills offense more pattern-passing based and less read-option, but Orton's accuracy is better, so if the Vikings give the Bills receivers openings, Orton will find them. BILLS, 24-20
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions Here's a possible road upset. The Saints had a week to plan and heal, and they can be a tricky team. I'll favor the Lions, because their defense is really strong, but watch out for the Saints. LIONS, 27-26
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams: Seattle plays much better at home than on the road, but they should be able to beat the Rams. Like most of their road games, though, this one will be close. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: Despite some defensive struggles recently, the Redskins should be able to win this one. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: If the Cards don't get overconfident, this should be an easy victory. The Raiders can't get anything done offenively, they match Jacksonville for the worst offense in the league. CARDS, 23-13
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The Chiefs offense is sputtering, which isn't good when facing the strong Chargers defense. The Chiefs defense is working better, but they can't do more than slow down the Chargers offense. Without the offense doing their part, the Chiefs can't win. CHARGERS, 26-13
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants offense fell apart last week, looking like they did to start the season. While they may get themselves back on track, they face a Cowboys team that is one of the most potent in the league. COWBOYS, 28-20
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: The 49ers defense isn't quite as strong as previous years, which is why I think Denver will win this game. Kaepernick is finding himself again, but he can't keep up with the Broncos offense. BRONCOS, 30-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Houston is on the downswing, and Pittsburgh needs a victory to wash out the stink of their loss to the Browns. While Houston might make it hard, I favor the Steelers. STEELERS, 23-20
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-1) [1] : There may not be a more complete team in the league
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-1) [3] : A shut-out against the Giants, whose offense had been working recent weeks, leaps them over Dallas
3. Dallas Cowboys (5-1) [2] : They beat the defending Super Bowl Champs in the Home of the 12th Man, where Seattle had only lost one game in their last 20
4. Denver Broncos (4-1) [8] : They had a dominant performance against the Jets
5. Indianapolis Colts (4-2) [4] : Houston couldn't stop their offense, but they pointed out some defensive flaws
6. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) [7] : They had one of their best offensive performances in years, and most of it was in the first quarter
7. Arizona Cardinals (4-1) [9] : Blew away Washington
8. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) [6] : The tie hurt them, especially since they had a chance to win in regulation AND a chance to win in overtime
9. New England Patriots (4-2) [14] : The Pats return to the Top Ten as their offense continues to get comfortable
10. Green Bay Packers (4-2) [10]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [2] : This is the only division without a losing team
2. NFC East [1] : Philly and Dallas are two of the top teams in the league
3. AFC West [3] : Ditto San Diego and Denver, plus the Chiefs defense is tough
4. NFC West [4] : St Louis is the only losing team, and they can play opponents close
5. NFC North [5] : If Minnesota can get a healthy QB, this division could tighten up
6. AFC South [6] : With Houston falling, the Colts may end up carrying this division
7. AFC East [7] : The Pats have resumed their rightful place atop this division, but Buffalo and Miami won't make it easy
8. NFC South [8] : NONE of the teams have a positive point differential
Week 7 picks
I favor nearly all of the home teams this week. This is not as dangerous as favoring most of the road teams, but it is still rare for a near-home sweep, so there will be a couple of upsets. Can I spot them?
Thursday night: New York Jets at New England Patriots: The Patriots will have this one easily. The Jets defense is strong, but only on the running side of the ball. Brady's passing game will pick them apart. PATS, 27-13
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league, which doesn't bode well for the inconsistent, and currently struggling, Falcons offense. RAVENS, 28-13
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: Cam ran more last week, and they were able to tie a Top Ten team. Can they do that again? Not against the Packer line. Also, they will find Aaron Rodgers harder to bother than Andy Dalton. PACK, 27-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: The Panthers hurt Cincy by running Cam Newton. Andrew Luck is not a scrambling QB, but he's also a much better passer. COLTS, 30-24
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: Cleveland's reward for beating their divisional opponent last week? They face the worst team in the league. BROWNS, 28-13
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: Historically, the Bears have a hard time against Miami, but it's easier for them at home. BEARS, 27-23
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills: Teddy Bridgewater is facing protection issues, and the Bills can rush. They also have a stiff defensive line, making the Vikings running attack hard. Kyle Orton makes the Bills offense more pattern-passing based and less read-option, but Orton's accuracy is better, so if the Vikings give the Bills receivers openings, Orton will find them. BILLS, 24-20
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions Here's a possible road upset. The Saints had a week to plan and heal, and they can be a tricky team. I'll favor the Lions, because their defense is really strong, but watch out for the Saints. LIONS, 27-26
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams: Seattle plays much better at home than on the road, but they should be able to beat the Rams. Like most of their road games, though, this one will be close. SEAHAWKS, 23-20
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: Despite some defensive struggles recently, the Redskins should be able to win this one. REDSKINS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders: If the Cards don't get overconfident, this should be an easy victory. The Raiders can't get anything done offenively, they match Jacksonville for the worst offense in the league. CARDS, 23-13
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: The Chiefs offense is sputtering, which isn't good when facing the strong Chargers defense. The Chiefs defense is working better, but they can't do more than slow down the Chargers offense. Without the offense doing their part, the Chiefs can't win. CHARGERS, 26-13
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants offense fell apart last week, looking like they did to start the season. While they may get themselves back on track, they face a Cowboys team that is one of the most potent in the league. COWBOYS, 28-20
Sunday night: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos: The 49ers defense isn't quite as strong as previous years, which is why I think Denver will win this game. Kaepernick is finding himself again, but he can't keep up with the Broncos offense. BRONCOS, 30-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Houston is on the downswing, and Pittsburgh needs a victory to wash out the stink of their loss to the Browns. While Houston might make it hard, I favor the Steelers. STEELERS, 23-20
Monday, October 13, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 8 picks
The week starts on Tues, but it's a Sun Belt team that most people probably don't care about. Let's start with a game that draws more attention:
Thurs Oct 16
#22 Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers have a strong recent history of upsetting conference opponents at home. Could this be the one this year? Could be. Utah has been good, but they've shown some vulnerabilities. This could be the Beavers' chance. I'll pick Utah, but Oregon State will likely keep it close. UTAH by four
Fri Oct 17
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos: It has been a disappointing year for Fresno State, but a win here would make the entire season worthwhile. They'll play the Broncos tough, but I think Boise will win. BOISE STATE by nine
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Temple has silently accumulated a 4-1 record. Houston can have good games, but they can also play poorly. They may be inspired to play well at home, but I think the Owls will still emerge victorious. TEMPLE by 11
Sat Oct 18
Top 25:
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Ole Miss Rebels: Tennessee started the season hot, but conference play has been tough. They won't threaten the best defense in the country. OLE MISS by 16
#3 Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers defense has kept their games close, but they won't be able to do that this time. BAYLOR by 26
#6 Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas nearly knocked off Alabama last week. Can they do that to Georgia? Perhaps, but the Bulldogs have been improving every week since their opening loss, so I have to like their continued improvement. GEORGIA by 11
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes: Rutgers has proven to be a tough competitor in their first year as a Big Ten school, but I don't think they've faced a defense like this team. It took a bit for the Buckeye defense to find themselves, but they've been good recently. OHIO STATE by 23
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at #8 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide need to improve from last week or they will suffer the upset. I think Nick Saban will whip them into shape, though, causing the Aggies to lose their third straight game. ALABAMA by nine
#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats: The Huskers should roll in this one. NEBRASKA by 26
#25 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 Oklahoma Sooners: Over the past two weeks, the Sooners suffered their first loss and a near loss in their fierce Red River Rivalry. They want a big win to re-establish themselves. The Wildcats have a history of beating up on weak opponents, getting a nice ranking, and them struggling against the "big boys". Here's a big boy. OKLAHOMA by 17
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #11 TCU Horned Frogs: After going toe-to-toe against Baylor last week, the Cowboys will be a needed relief. TCU by 20
#12 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers: The Spartans defense cracked in the fourth quarter against Purdue, so they will toughen up for this game. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
#15 Washington Huskies at #14 Oregon Ducks: This game could literally go either way. In those cases, I usually favor the home team, and I will here. If Oregon underestimates Washington, thinking their 5-1 record is inflated, they could get knocked off. OREGON by six
#21 Kentucky Wildcats at #17 LSU Tigers: It can be tough to win in Baton Rouge, so I favor LSU. However, Kentucky has a scrappy bunch of players. They will keep it close, and could pull away in the fourth quarter. LSU by four
#18 Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: Marshall would completely overwhelm here. MARSHALL by 34
Virginia Cavaliers at #19 Duke Blue Devils: The Blue Devils got new life by beating Georgia Tech last week. Virginia has played well, so Duke will prepare for them just as hard. DUKE by 11
#23 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils: Arizona State has the better record, but Stanford has performed better on the field. I favor the performances, but watch out for those surprising Sun Devils! STANFORD by eight
Missouri Tigers at #24 Florida Gators: Both suffered losses last week, so both teams feel this is a "must win" game. Missouri got thoroughly trounced, while Florida kept it close. Florida overall has been a scappier team, and that fiestiness will be their edge. FLORIDA by six
Big Ten:
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Surprise! The Gophers are 5-1 and tied with Iowa for the West division lead. Purdue had a good game last week, but that may have been a rare spark. MINNESOTA by 16
Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins: Iowa needs to keep pace with Minnesota, so they will battle to win this game. They should, although Maryland is no pushover. IOWA by 14
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Cal Golden Bears: UCLA stumbled last week, but they should right themselves for Cal. UCLA by 13
NC State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals: The Wolfpack have fallen hard the past two weeks. I'm not sure that plummet is ready to stop. LOUISVILLE by 18
Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. If Clemson can avoid one of their occassional meltdowns, this will be an excitingly close game. In those situations, I usually favor either the home team or the better defense. Both of those are the same team in this case. BOSTON COLLEGE by three
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina played tough last week, but Georgia Tech will want to bounce back from their loss last week. GEORGIA TECH by 11
GAME OF THE WEEK: #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #13 Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles have not been showing up really powerfully this season. The folks behind the AP Coaches poll finally agreed with me, dropping Florida State to #3 this week. Notre Dame has been a tough team, which is why I favor them in this game. This game might be the "wake-up" call Florida State needs, and they might turn themselves around to win, but I give Notre Dame the nod. NOTRE DAME by six
Thurs Oct 16
#22 Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers have a strong recent history of upsetting conference opponents at home. Could this be the one this year? Could be. Utah has been good, but they've shown some vulnerabilities. This could be the Beavers' chance. I'll pick Utah, but Oregon State will likely keep it close. UTAH by four
Fri Oct 17
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos: It has been a disappointing year for Fresno State, but a win here would make the entire season worthwhile. They'll play the Broncos tough, but I think Boise will win. BOISE STATE by nine
Temple Owls at Houston Cougars: Temple has silently accumulated a 4-1 record. Houston can have good games, but they can also play poorly. They may be inspired to play well at home, but I think the Owls will still emerge victorious. TEMPLE by 11
Sat Oct 18
Top 25:
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Ole Miss Rebels: Tennessee started the season hot, but conference play has been tough. They won't threaten the best defense in the country. OLE MISS by 16
#3 Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers defense has kept their games close, but they won't be able to do that this time. BAYLOR by 26
#6 Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas nearly knocked off Alabama last week. Can they do that to Georgia? Perhaps, but the Bulldogs have been improving every week since their opening loss, so I have to like their continued improvement. GEORGIA by 11
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes: Rutgers has proven to be a tough competitor in their first year as a Big Ten school, but I don't think they've faced a defense like this team. It took a bit for the Buckeye defense to find themselves, but they've been good recently. OHIO STATE by 23
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at #8 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide need to improve from last week or they will suffer the upset. I think Nick Saban will whip them into shape, though, causing the Aggies to lose their third straight game. ALABAMA by nine
#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats: The Huskers should roll in this one. NEBRASKA by 26
#25 Kansas State Wildcats at #10 Oklahoma Sooners: Over the past two weeks, the Sooners suffered their first loss and a near loss in their fierce Red River Rivalry. They want a big win to re-establish themselves. The Wildcats have a history of beating up on weak opponents, getting a nice ranking, and them struggling against the "big boys". Here's a big boy. OKLAHOMA by 17
Oklahoma State Cowboys at #11 TCU Horned Frogs: After going toe-to-toe against Baylor last week, the Cowboys will be a needed relief. TCU by 20
#12 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers: The Spartans defense cracked in the fourth quarter against Purdue, so they will toughen up for this game. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
#15 Washington Huskies at #14 Oregon Ducks: This game could literally go either way. In those cases, I usually favor the home team, and I will here. If Oregon underestimates Washington, thinking their 5-1 record is inflated, they could get knocked off. OREGON by six
#21 Kentucky Wildcats at #17 LSU Tigers: It can be tough to win in Baton Rouge, so I favor LSU. However, Kentucky has a scrappy bunch of players. They will keep it close, and could pull away in the fourth quarter. LSU by four
#18 Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida International Golden Panthers: Marshall would completely overwhelm here. MARSHALL by 34
Virginia Cavaliers at #19 Duke Blue Devils: The Blue Devils got new life by beating Georgia Tech last week. Virginia has played well, so Duke will prepare for them just as hard. DUKE by 11
#23 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils: Arizona State has the better record, but Stanford has performed better on the field. I favor the performances, but watch out for those surprising Sun Devils! STANFORD by eight
Missouri Tigers at #24 Florida Gators: Both suffered losses last week, so both teams feel this is a "must win" game. Missouri got thoroughly trounced, while Florida kept it close. Florida overall has been a scappier team, and that fiestiness will be their edge. FLORIDA by six
Big Ten:
Purdue Boilermakers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Surprise! The Gophers are 5-1 and tied with Iowa for the West division lead. Purdue had a good game last week, but that may have been a rare spark. MINNESOTA by 16
Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins: Iowa needs to keep pace with Minnesota, so they will battle to win this game. They should, although Maryland is no pushover. IOWA by 14
Other Games of Interest:
UCLA Bruins at Cal Golden Bears: UCLA stumbled last week, but they should right themselves for Cal. UCLA by 13
NC State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals: The Wolfpack have fallen hard the past two weeks. I'm not sure that plummet is ready to stop. LOUISVILLE by 18
Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles: These two teams are fairly evenly matched. If Clemson can avoid one of their occassional meltdowns, this will be an excitingly close game. In those situations, I usually favor either the home team or the better defense. Both of those are the same team in this case. BOSTON COLLEGE by three
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina played tough last week, but Georgia Tech will want to bounce back from their loss last week. GEORGIA TECH by 11
GAME OF THE WEEK: #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #13 Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles have not been showing up really powerfully this season. The folks behind the AP Coaches poll finally agreed with me, dropping Florida State to #3 this week. Notre Dame has been a tough team, which is why I favor them in this game. This game might be the "wake-up" call Florida State needs, and they might turn themselves around to win, but I give Notre Dame the nod. NOTRE DAME by six
Sunday, October 12, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 7 results and Top 25
A surprising lack of upsets this week. I guess we had so many last week that we didn't need any this week. The only real upset was the overtime victory of UCF over BYU. The USC victory was so close, and only due to a missed field goal, that I'm not sure it was fully an upset. A surprise, certainly. We did have other surprises, including the way Mississippi State overcame three turnovers to still dominate the game over Auburn. North Carolina nearly gave Notre Dame their first loss, and Kansas nearly shocked Oklahoma State.
Aside from Arizona and Auburn, TCU and Georgia Tech suffered their first losses, reducing the total number of unbeaten team to six. All of those teams find themselves in the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (6-0) [1] : The Rebs demonstrated they deserved the top spot by dismantling the A&M offense.
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [4] : A dominant win over Auburn despite turnovers. That's impressive!
3. Baylor Bears (6-0) [3] : They came from behind against TCU
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) [7] : It was an ugly win, but they prevented their own upset, something other Top Ten teams couldn't do over the past two weeks
5. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [2]
6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) [12] : They have nearly erased their opening week loss from memory
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [8]
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) [5] : A one-point win over Arkansas? Alabama looks fragile
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [10]
10. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [9] : They won the Red River Rivalry, but 2-3 Texas didn't make it easy
11. TCU Horned Frogs (4-1) [6] : Near win over Baylor
12. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [14] : They really shouldn't move up this much, but the folks who were above them did worse
13. Florida State Seminoles (6-0) [15] : Another not-so-pretty win
14. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [16] : Ducks fought hard against Bruins
15. Washington Huskies (5-1) [28] : Huskies reach the Top 25 on a big win
16. Arizona Wildcats (5-1) [11]
17. LSU Tigers (5-2) [21]
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-0) [22]
19. Duke Blue Devils (5-1) [23] : Knocked off Georgia Tech to take tiebreaker edge in ACC Coastal division
20. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [13]
21. Kentucky Wildcats (5-1) [NR] : The 'Cats return to the Top 25
22. Utah Utes (4-1) [24]
23. Stanford Cardinal (4-2) [25]
24. Florida Gators (3-2) [17]
25. Kansas State Wildcats (4-1) [27]
Dropped off: Missouri Tigers [#18], UCLA Bruins [#19], BYU Cougars [#20]
On the Edge: Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1), East Carolina Pirates (5-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Louisville Cardinals (5-2), Wisconsin Badgers (4-2), Colorado State Rams (5-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-1), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3)
Aside from Arizona and Auburn, TCU and Georgia Tech suffered their first losses, reducing the total number of unbeaten team to six. All of those teams find themselves in the Top 25.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (6-0) [1] : The Rebs demonstrated they deserved the top spot by dismantling the A&M offense.
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-0) [4] : A dominant win over Auburn despite turnovers. That's impressive!
3. Baylor Bears (6-0) [3] : They came from behind against TCU
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0) [7] : It was an ugly win, but they prevented their own upset, something other Top Ten teams couldn't do over the past two weeks
5. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [2]
6. Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) [12] : They have nearly erased their opening week loss from memory
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [8]
8. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) [5] : A one-point win over Arkansas? Alabama looks fragile
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [10]
10. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [9] : They won the Red River Rivalry, but 2-3 Texas didn't make it easy
11. TCU Horned Frogs (4-1) [6] : Near win over Baylor
12. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [14] : They really shouldn't move up this much, but the folks who were above them did worse
13. Florida State Seminoles (6-0) [15] : Another not-so-pretty win
14. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [16] : Ducks fought hard against Bruins
15. Washington Huskies (5-1) [28] : Huskies reach the Top 25 on a big win
16. Arizona Wildcats (5-1) [11]
17. LSU Tigers (5-2) [21]
18. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-0) [22]
19. Duke Blue Devils (5-1) [23] : Knocked off Georgia Tech to take tiebreaker edge in ACC Coastal division
20. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [13]
21. Kentucky Wildcats (5-1) [NR] : The 'Cats return to the Top 25
22. Utah Utes (4-1) [24]
23. Stanford Cardinal (4-2) [25]
24. Florida Gators (3-2) [17]
25. Kansas State Wildcats (4-1) [27]
Dropped off: Missouri Tigers [#18], UCLA Bruins [#19], BYU Cougars [#20]
On the Edge: Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1), East Carolina Pirates (5-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Louisville Cardinals (5-2), Wisconsin Badgers (4-2), Colorado State Rams (5-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-1), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3)
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 5 Power Rankings and Week 6 picks
There are no unbeaten teams in the NFL, and that mark has been reached sooner than any year since I've been doing this work, and I began in 1981. Roger Goodell wants parity, and this is a result.
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1) [4] : With an effective balance of offense and defense, the Chargers currently rule the league. With an easy opponent in Oakland, they might hold that position for a week.
2. Dallas Cowboys (4-1) [6] : They are off to a good start, but I won't give them kudos until I see them avoid their traditional late season slide.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) [9] : Their defense had trouble against the Rams, but the offense was rolling
4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) [11] : After a slow start, the Colts are starting to become a real force to contend
5. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) [5] : This team might be the rare Super Bowl Champ to return to the playoffs the following year
6. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) [1] : The Bengals fell from the ranks of unbeaten as the Patriots find their offense
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) [3]
8. Denver Broncos (3-1) [10] : They knocked off Arizona to clear out the unbeatens
9. Arizona Cardinals (3-1) [2]
10. Green Bay Packers (3-2) [20] : Huge win highlights what can happen when their offense is working
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [3]: Big wins by Dallas, Philly, and the Giants makes them the only division containing two teams with four wins
2. AFC North [1] : Losses by Baltimore and Cincy hurt the division a bit, but they still have two teams in the Top Ten
3. AFC West [4] : Denver's rise helps this division
4. NFC West [2] : Arizona lost big, but the other three teams played well
5. NFC North [5] : Only the Packers won as the teams in this division struggle for consistency
6. AFC South [6] : Indy takes over the lead in the division as they are the only winner, and only Top Ten
7. AFC East [7] : Pats and Bills won, and the team has only one team with a losing record, but the division also lacks consistency
8. AFC South [8] : Only one winning team, their lone bright spot is 2-3 New Orleans, who are on a two-game winning streak
Week 6 picks
This could be a rough week, as I found myself favoring WAY too many visiting teams. I picked some home teams who have pulled off upsets in recent years, but I'm still picking more road teams than home teams.
Thursday night: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Two weeks ago I would have picked Houston with no hesitancy, but the Colts are on a roll and Houston is falling. I don't even think the Texans can generate the upset. COLTS, 31-20
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Ravens may be struggling, but they should be able to beat the Bucs. The Bucs pushed New Orleans to overtime, though, so watch for a surprise win by the home team. RAVENS, 23-16
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: The Panthers may have generated a comeback against the Bears last week, but the Bengals have a stiffer defense. That won't happen this week. BENGALS, 27-17
Denver Broncos at New York Jets: With the Jets' struggles, this was the easiest road victory to pick. BRONCOS, 31-16
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater will be back, so this should be an interesting battle. I like the Lions' chances, but Minnesota has won 15 of their last 16 home games against Detroit, so this one could swing to the home team. LIONS, 24-20
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: After a great opening two weeks, the Dolphins have floundered. Facing a revitalized Packers offense won't help them get back on track, despite having a bye last week. PACKERS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Contest between two of the worst teams in the league. Does it really matter who wins? Well, if Jacksonville can pull the upset, it'll matter to Jags fan (however many are left). TITANS, 23-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots showed life this past week, but I think it's too early to proclaim that their problems are over. The Bills still lead this division, as they beat the Dolphins while the Dolphins beat New England, and I think it's possible for New England to go 0-2 in the division. BILLS, 24-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Cleveland could win, but they tend to lose divisional games. Pittsburgh isn't winning big, but they should do well enough to win this game. STEELERS, 23-20
Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: Neither team is looking good, but the collapse of Chicago's offense bodes ill against the Falcons offense. FALCONS, 30-24
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Dallas is playing very well, but nobody has been tougher at home over the past two seasons than the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: Another easy road win, as the Raiders struggles are massive. CHARGERS, 24-13
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards (and all of us) are wondering who will start at quarterback. Drew Stanton has not passed concussion protocol. Carson Palmer's shoulder still hurts, but he says he's ready to play. Rookie Logan Thomas had a rocky start against Denver. The Cards have signed Dennis Dixon as a possibility. This would seem to be Washington's chance to shine, but the Cards have a decent defense (despite injuries) and the Redskins have been underachievers. I'll give a slight nod to Arizona. CARDINALS, 23-20
Sunday night: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants offense seems to be working now, but I don't think it'll match up to Chip Kelly's offense. The scoreboard will light up, but the Eagles will triumph. EAGLES, 34-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams: Oh man, I almost picked the home team here. The Rams have looked bad, but they have beaten or tied the 49ers more times than losing to them in the past two years. However, the Rams defense is not what it has been, and the defense was what won those games. I'll go with the 49ers, but watch out! 49ERS, 23-20
Top Ten [Last week's position]
1. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1) [4] : With an effective balance of offense and defense, the Chargers currently rule the league. With an easy opponent in Oakland, they might hold that position for a week.
2. Dallas Cowboys (4-1) [6] : They are off to a good start, but I won't give them kudos until I see them avoid their traditional late season slide.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) [9] : Their defense had trouble against the Rams, but the offense was rolling
4. Indianapolis Colts (3-2) [11] : After a slow start, the Colts are starting to become a real force to contend
5. Seattle Seahawks (3-1) [5] : This team might be the rare Super Bowl Champ to return to the playoffs the following year
6. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) [1] : The Bengals fell from the ranks of unbeaten as the Patriots find their offense
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) [3]
8. Denver Broncos (3-1) [10] : They knocked off Arizona to clear out the unbeatens
9. Arizona Cardinals (3-1) [2]
10. Green Bay Packers (3-2) [20] : Huge win highlights what can happen when their offense is working
Divisional Rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [3]: Big wins by Dallas, Philly, and the Giants makes them the only division containing two teams with four wins
2. AFC North [1] : Losses by Baltimore and Cincy hurt the division a bit, but they still have two teams in the Top Ten
3. AFC West [4] : Denver's rise helps this division
4. NFC West [2] : Arizona lost big, but the other three teams played well
5. NFC North [5] : Only the Packers won as the teams in this division struggle for consistency
6. AFC South [6] : Indy takes over the lead in the division as they are the only winner, and only Top Ten
7. AFC East [7] : Pats and Bills won, and the team has only one team with a losing record, but the division also lacks consistency
8. AFC South [8] : Only one winning team, their lone bright spot is 2-3 New Orleans, who are on a two-game winning streak
Week 6 picks
This could be a rough week, as I found myself favoring WAY too many visiting teams. I picked some home teams who have pulled off upsets in recent years, but I'm still picking more road teams than home teams.
Thursday night: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Two weeks ago I would have picked Houston with no hesitancy, but the Colts are on a roll and Houston is falling. I don't even think the Texans can generate the upset. COLTS, 31-20
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Ravens may be struggling, but they should be able to beat the Bucs. The Bucs pushed New Orleans to overtime, though, so watch for a surprise win by the home team. RAVENS, 23-16
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: The Panthers may have generated a comeback against the Bears last week, but the Bengals have a stiffer defense. That won't happen this week. BENGALS, 27-17
Denver Broncos at New York Jets: With the Jets' struggles, this was the easiest road victory to pick. BRONCOS, 31-16
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater will be back, so this should be an interesting battle. I like the Lions' chances, but Minnesota has won 15 of their last 16 home games against Detroit, so this one could swing to the home team. LIONS, 24-20
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: After a great opening two weeks, the Dolphins have floundered. Facing a revitalized Packers offense won't help them get back on track, despite having a bye last week. PACKERS, 27-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: Contest between two of the worst teams in the league. Does it really matter who wins? Well, if Jacksonville can pull the upset, it'll matter to Jags fan (however many are left). TITANS, 23-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots showed life this past week, but I think it's too early to proclaim that their problems are over. The Bills still lead this division, as they beat the Dolphins while the Dolphins beat New England, and I think it's possible for New England to go 0-2 in the division. BILLS, 24-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Cleveland could win, but they tend to lose divisional games. Pittsburgh isn't winning big, but they should do well enough to win this game. STEELERS, 23-20
Sunday late games:
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: Neither team is looking good, but the collapse of Chicago's offense bodes ill against the Falcons offense. FALCONS, 30-24
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Dallas is playing very well, but nobody has been tougher at home over the past two seasons than the Seahawks. SEAHAWKS, 24-20
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: Another easy road win, as the Raiders struggles are massive. CHARGERS, 24-13
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: The Cards (and all of us) are wondering who will start at quarterback. Drew Stanton has not passed concussion protocol. Carson Palmer's shoulder still hurts, but he says he's ready to play. Rookie Logan Thomas had a rocky start against Denver. The Cards have signed Dennis Dixon as a possibility. This would seem to be Washington's chance to shine, but the Cards have a decent defense (despite injuries) and the Redskins have been underachievers. I'll give a slight nod to Arizona. CARDINALS, 23-20
Sunday night: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants offense seems to be working now, but I don't think it'll match up to Chip Kelly's offense. The scoreboard will light up, but the Eagles will triumph. EAGLES, 34-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams: Oh man, I almost picked the home team here. The Rams have looked bad, but they have beaten or tied the 49ers more times than losing to them in the past two years. However, the Rams defense is not what it has been, and the defense was what won those games. I'll go with the 49ers, but watch out! 49ERS, 23-20
Monday, October 6, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 7 picks
We have six more games where Top 25 teams play each other. After what happened this past weekend, expect those to be real dogfights.
Thurs Oct 9
#20 BYU Cougars at UCF Golden Knights: The Cougars get an easy opponent to wash the sting of defeat from their mouths. However, losing their quarterback near the end of last week's game makes this a hard game to win. I think they will, but UCF will keep it dangerously close. BYU by six
Fri Oct 10
Washington State Cougars at #25 Stanford Cardinal: The Cougars nearly upset Cal, putting up 59 points. Stanford's defense is much tougher. STANFORD by 12
Sat Oct 11
Top 25:
#1 Ole Miss Rebels at #13 Texas A&M Aggies: Kenny Hill has been shown to be vulnerable. Expect Ole Miss to take a page from their in-state rival's playbook and keep the pressure on the young QB. If Bo Wallace doesn't get a swelled head after beating Alabama, they should win this, but watch for a post-Tide letdown. OLE MISS by four
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at #3 Baylor Bears: TCU pulled off a shocker last week at home. I'm not sure they have enough steam to do it twice in a row, especially on the road. BAYLOR by eight
#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks: Alabama needs to bounce back after being bounced by Ole Miss. A second consecutive road loss would be unthinkable for the Tide, but Arkansas won't make this one easy. ALABAMA by ten
North Carolina Tar Heels at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the Irish's performance against Stanford, it would be foolish to pick against them here. Everett Golson did not have an outstanding day, but it was a solid performance against a stiff defense. The Tar Heels aren't nearly so tough. NOTRE DAME by 17
Texas Longhorns at #9 Oklahoma Sooners: Texas will continue to wilt as they face the tougher opponents in the conference. Oklahoma wants a strong win to redeem themselves from the disappointing loss at TCU. Vulnerabilities in their defense were exposed, and the coaches have to go to work on that. Fortunately, Texas' attack isn't so potent, so they have an extra week to improve. OKLAHOMA by 23
USC Trojans at #11 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats now have a heavy burden -- they are the only unbeaten Pac-12 team left, and perhaps their own viable candidate for the playoffs. Can they defend those hopes against USC? The Trojans can be tough, but they've been hurting themselves. If they clean up their act this week, Arizona might lose. I suspect there is still some work that needs to be done to get the Trojans back on track, though. ARIZONA by nine
#12 Georgia Bulldogs at #18 Missouri Tigers: The Bulldogs have steadily improved the past three weeks, and they will prove that against Missouri. The Tigers did get an extra week to prepare, but which Georgia team did they prepare for? Not the one that played this past week, I expect. GEORGIA by 16
#14 Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue may have found themselves a quarterback this week, but that won't help them much against the toughest defense in the conference. MICHIGAN STATE by 30
#15 Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange: This game may not be as easy as the respective records would indicate. While Syracuse sits at 2-3, they have been competitive in every game they have played this season. If Florida State doesn't start hitting their 2013 stride, this game will be closer than Seminole fans would like. FLORIDA STATE by 11
#16 Oregon Ducks at #19 UCLA Bruins: The Bruins continued their strange streak of losing the week before they face Oregon. Sometimes they have saved their strength for Oregon, and pulled off the upset. With the inconsistent play of QB Brett Huntley, though, I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by 16
#21 LSU Tigers at #17 Florida Gators: This game could easily go either way, but Florida has shown a greater tenacity in close games. FLORIDA by four
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #22 Marshall Thundering Herd: Middle Tennessee actually leads the Conference USA West division, mainly because they've played (and beaten) more conference opponents than Marshall. Marshall has the better team, however. MARSHALL by 20
#23 Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Both teams got a bye this past week, and that might have helped Tech more than Duke. This game will be close, and the lead will change several times, but I actually like Tech to preserve their unbeaten record and knock Duke out of the Top 25. GEORGIA TECH by six
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers: The Illini defense showed they have trouble tackling and chasing down opponents. Wisconsin will take advantage of both problems. WISCONSIN by 24
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Indiana can be a tough team, but Iowa had an extra week to relax and plan. This game will be a battle, but Iowa should emerge victorious. IOWA by eight
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Wildcats have a read Jekyll and Hyde complex this season. They were terrible during their non-conference play, but have gone 2-0 since Big Ten play has begun. Did the Wildcats fix what was broken earlier, or are they running on pure adrenalin. This game will test that, as they face a well-rested Minnesota team. This game could go either way, but I'll pick Minnesota. If Northwestern wins, then I will believe their turnaround. MINNESOTA by six
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines: If Michigan wanted, Brady Hoke could be the third coaching casualty this season. Fortunately for him, the Big Ten schools tend to allow coaches to finish out the season. It'll be a long season for Michigan, who could face their second losing season in six years. PENN STATE by 16
Other Games of Interest:
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Kentucky Wildcats: This should be an easy win for Kentucky, so long as they don't underestimate the Warhawks just because they play in the Sun Belt conference. They can be a decent team, and can surprise opponents who look past them. I don't think the Wildcats will do that. KENTUCKY by 24
Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers: I'm not sure which team is being ignored more -- Ole Miss or Louisville. After their defeat of Alabama, I'm not sure Ole Miss is ignored (although the large number of national rankings that refuse to put Ole Miss into their Top 4 still seems to be ignoring their strength), so I'll go with Louisville. Quietly the Cardinals have become the second best team in the ACC, which they will prove after beating Clemson, who completely shut down NC State. LOUISVILLE by 18
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas is a team without a coach. Truthfully, I didn't understand, as Kansas has not been a force except for two years when Todd Reesing was QB. This is a lower-level team without a leader. OKLAHOMA STATE by 33
Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: Both teams are 4-1, but Cal has been squeaking by, while Washington has produced clear victories. This one is fairly easy. WASHINGTON by 13
East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls: Here are two teams with perennial strong defenses. Both teams are facing lean times defensively, but East Carolina has a working offense. EAST CAROLINA by 24
Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack: The Rams are having an excellent year, and could contend for the Mountain West title. Defeating Nevada would go a long way towards that goal. COLORADO STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #2 Auburn Tigers at #4 Mississippi State Bulldogs: This will be a thrilling game. Both teams have strong offenses and good defenses. Mississippi State has done great recently, beating LSU and Texas A&M as warmups for this game. I really like their chances to win. However, Auburn has a nasty habit of finding ways to win close games, and I suspect this will be a close game. While the Bulldogs could win, I have to slightly favor Auburn. AUBURN by three
Thurs Oct 9
#20 BYU Cougars at UCF Golden Knights: The Cougars get an easy opponent to wash the sting of defeat from their mouths. However, losing their quarterback near the end of last week's game makes this a hard game to win. I think they will, but UCF will keep it dangerously close. BYU by six
Fri Oct 10
Washington State Cougars at #25 Stanford Cardinal: The Cougars nearly upset Cal, putting up 59 points. Stanford's defense is much tougher. STANFORD by 12
Sat Oct 11
Top 25:
#1 Ole Miss Rebels at #13 Texas A&M Aggies: Kenny Hill has been shown to be vulnerable. Expect Ole Miss to take a page from their in-state rival's playbook and keep the pressure on the young QB. If Bo Wallace doesn't get a swelled head after beating Alabama, they should win this, but watch for a post-Tide letdown. OLE MISS by four
#6 TCU Horned Frogs at #3 Baylor Bears: TCU pulled off a shocker last week at home. I'm not sure they have enough steam to do it twice in a row, especially on the road. BAYLOR by eight
#5 Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks: Alabama needs to bounce back after being bounced by Ole Miss. A second consecutive road loss would be unthinkable for the Tide, but Arkansas won't make this one easy. ALABAMA by ten
North Carolina Tar Heels at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the Irish's performance against Stanford, it would be foolish to pick against them here. Everett Golson did not have an outstanding day, but it was a solid performance against a stiff defense. The Tar Heels aren't nearly so tough. NOTRE DAME by 17
Texas Longhorns at #9 Oklahoma Sooners: Texas will continue to wilt as they face the tougher opponents in the conference. Oklahoma wants a strong win to redeem themselves from the disappointing loss at TCU. Vulnerabilities in their defense were exposed, and the coaches have to go to work on that. Fortunately, Texas' attack isn't so potent, so they have an extra week to improve. OKLAHOMA by 23
USC Trojans at #11 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats now have a heavy burden -- they are the only unbeaten Pac-12 team left, and perhaps their own viable candidate for the playoffs. Can they defend those hopes against USC? The Trojans can be tough, but they've been hurting themselves. If they clean up their act this week, Arizona might lose. I suspect there is still some work that needs to be done to get the Trojans back on track, though. ARIZONA by nine
#12 Georgia Bulldogs at #18 Missouri Tigers: The Bulldogs have steadily improved the past three weeks, and they will prove that against Missouri. The Tigers did get an extra week to prepare, but which Georgia team did they prepare for? Not the one that played this past week, I expect. GEORGIA by 16
#14 Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue may have found themselves a quarterback this week, but that won't help them much against the toughest defense in the conference. MICHIGAN STATE by 30
#15 Florida State Seminoles at Syracuse Orange: This game may not be as easy as the respective records would indicate. While Syracuse sits at 2-3, they have been competitive in every game they have played this season. If Florida State doesn't start hitting their 2013 stride, this game will be closer than Seminole fans would like. FLORIDA STATE by 11
#16 Oregon Ducks at #19 UCLA Bruins: The Bruins continued their strange streak of losing the week before they face Oregon. Sometimes they have saved their strength for Oregon, and pulled off the upset. With the inconsistent play of QB Brett Huntley, though, I have to favor the Ducks. OREGON by 16
#21 LSU Tigers at #17 Florida Gators: This game could easily go either way, but Florida has shown a greater tenacity in close games. FLORIDA by four
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at #22 Marshall Thundering Herd: Middle Tennessee actually leads the Conference USA West division, mainly because they've played (and beaten) more conference opponents than Marshall. Marshall has the better team, however. MARSHALL by 20
#23 Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Both teams got a bye this past week, and that might have helped Tech more than Duke. This game will be close, and the lead will change several times, but I actually like Tech to preserve their unbeaten record and knock Duke out of the Top 25. GEORGIA TECH by six
Big Ten:
Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers: The Illini defense showed they have trouble tackling and chasing down opponents. Wisconsin will take advantage of both problems. WISCONSIN by 24
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Indiana can be a tough team, but Iowa had an extra week to relax and plan. This game will be a battle, but Iowa should emerge victorious. IOWA by eight
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Wildcats have a read Jekyll and Hyde complex this season. They were terrible during their non-conference play, but have gone 2-0 since Big Ten play has begun. Did the Wildcats fix what was broken earlier, or are they running on pure adrenalin. This game will test that, as they face a well-rested Minnesota team. This game could go either way, but I'll pick Minnesota. If Northwestern wins, then I will believe their turnaround. MINNESOTA by six
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines: If Michigan wanted, Brady Hoke could be the third coaching casualty this season. Fortunately for him, the Big Ten schools tend to allow coaches to finish out the season. It'll be a long season for Michigan, who could face their second losing season in six years. PENN STATE by 16
Other Games of Interest:
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Kentucky Wildcats: This should be an easy win for Kentucky, so long as they don't underestimate the Warhawks just because they play in the Sun Belt conference. They can be a decent team, and can surprise opponents who look past them. I don't think the Wildcats will do that. KENTUCKY by 24
Louisville Cardinals at Clemson Tigers: I'm not sure which team is being ignored more -- Ole Miss or Louisville. After their defeat of Alabama, I'm not sure Ole Miss is ignored (although the large number of national rankings that refuse to put Ole Miss into their Top 4 still seems to be ignoring their strength), so I'll go with Louisville. Quietly the Cardinals have become the second best team in the ACC, which they will prove after beating Clemson, who completely shut down NC State. LOUISVILLE by 18
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas is a team without a coach. Truthfully, I didn't understand, as Kansas has not been a force except for two years when Todd Reesing was QB. This is a lower-level team without a leader. OKLAHOMA STATE by 33
Washington Huskies at Cal Golden Bears: Both teams are 4-1, but Cal has been squeaking by, while Washington has produced clear victories. This one is fairly easy. WASHINGTON by 13
East Carolina Pirates at South Florida Bulls: Here are two teams with perennial strong defenses. Both teams are facing lean times defensively, but East Carolina has a working offense. EAST CAROLINA by 24
Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack: The Rams are having an excellent year, and could contend for the Mountain West title. Defeating Nevada would go a long way towards that goal. COLORADO STATE by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: #2 Auburn Tigers at #4 Mississippi State Bulldogs: This will be a thrilling game. Both teams have strong offenses and good defenses. Mississippi State has done great recently, beating LSU and Texas A&M as warmups for this game. I really like their chances to win. However, Auburn has a nasty habit of finding ways to win close games, and I suspect this will be a close game. While the Bulldogs could win, I have to slightly favor Auburn. AUBURN by three
Sunday, October 5, 2014
NCAA 2014 Week 6 results and Top 25
What a wacky week! It wasn't as upsetting for me, as I picked Mississippi State to win, and gave TCU and Ole Miss chances to win. Still, I got surprised by Utah State, Utah, and Clemson. Is there life left in NC State? We'll have to see.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (5-0) [3] : Beating Number One gives you high probability to take over the spot, especially when you come from behind like that. Ole Miss is not used this spot, so I'm not sure how long they'll retain it, but they can savor the top spot for a while.
2. Auburn Tigers (5-0) [6] : They thoroughly dominated LSU
3. Baylor Bears (5-0) [4] : Offense sputtered a bit, but still completed an impressive win
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) [8] : I've never had both Mississippi teams in the Top 5!
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) [1]
6. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [12] : After a sluggish start, TCU has had two tremendous weeks in a row
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) [9] : They came back late in the fourth quarter to capture victory from Stanford
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [14] : They have rebounded from that early loss very well. TJ Barrett is looking great
9. Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) [2]
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [5] : They nearly engineered a thrilling fourth quarter comeback
11. Arizona Wildcats (5-0) [15] : The only unbeaten team in the Pac-12
12. Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) [16] : They let Vandy score too much, but their offense looked great
13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [7] : Bad day for Kenny Hill
14. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [24] : They almost let this game get away from them late, like they did with Oregon, but they intercepted Armstrong to hold on
15. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) [20] It took them a quarter to get going, but then they rolled. Could they have done that against a stronger team, though? Still too many questions about this team
16. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [10]
17. Florida Gators (3-1) [17] : Squeaked by with a single point win. On a weekend like this one, though, that was good
18. Missouri Tigers (4-1) [19]
19. UCLA Bruins (4-1) [18] : How can they lose and only fall one slot? That shows the impact of other games played this weekend
20. BYU Cougars (4-1) [13] : Their slim hopes for a dark horse shot at the playoffs are dashed. A New Years Day bowl seems unlikely now
21. LSU Tigers (4-2) [11] : Beaten horribly by Auburn
22. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-0) [26]
23. Duke Blue Devils (4-1) [23]
24. Utah Utes (4-1) [28] : The Utes return to the Top 25 with the upset over UCLA
25. Stanford Cardinal (3-2) [22] : Their close loss to Notre Dame keeps them hanging on to the Top 25
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#21], NC State Wolfpack [#25]
On the Edge: Louisville Cardinals (5-1), Kansas State Wildcats (4-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0), Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1), East Carolina Pirates (4-1), Kentucky Wildcats (4-1), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Wisconsin Badgers (3-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. OLE MISS REBELS (5-0) [3] : Beating Number One gives you high probability to take over the spot, especially when you come from behind like that. Ole Miss is not used this spot, so I'm not sure how long they'll retain it, but they can savor the top spot for a while.
2. Auburn Tigers (5-0) [6] : They thoroughly dominated LSU
3. Baylor Bears (5-0) [4] : Offense sputtered a bit, but still completed an impressive win
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0) [8] : I've never had both Mississippi teams in the Top 5!
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) [1]
6. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [12] : After a sluggish start, TCU has had two tremendous weeks in a row
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0) [9] : They came back late in the fourth quarter to capture victory from Stanford
8. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [14] : They have rebounded from that early loss very well. TJ Barrett is looking great
9. Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) [2]
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [5] : They nearly engineered a thrilling fourth quarter comeback
11. Arizona Wildcats (5-0) [15] : The only unbeaten team in the Pac-12
12. Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) [16] : They let Vandy score too much, but their offense looked great
13. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [7] : Bad day for Kenny Hill
14. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [24] : They almost let this game get away from them late, like they did with Oregon, but they intercepted Armstrong to hold on
15. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) [20] It took them a quarter to get going, but then they rolled. Could they have done that against a stronger team, though? Still too many questions about this team
16. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [10]
17. Florida Gators (3-1) [17] : Squeaked by with a single point win. On a weekend like this one, though, that was good
18. Missouri Tigers (4-1) [19]
19. UCLA Bruins (4-1) [18] : How can they lose and only fall one slot? That shows the impact of other games played this weekend
20. BYU Cougars (4-1) [13] : Their slim hopes for a dark horse shot at the playoffs are dashed. A New Years Day bowl seems unlikely now
21. LSU Tigers (4-2) [11] : Beaten horribly by Auburn
22. Marshall Thundering Herd (5-0) [26]
23. Duke Blue Devils (4-1) [23]
24. Utah Utes (4-1) [28] : The Utes return to the Top 25 with the upset over UCLA
25. Stanford Cardinal (3-2) [22] : Their close loss to Notre Dame keeps them hanging on to the Top 25
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#21], NC State Wolfpack [#25]
On the Edge: Louisville Cardinals (5-1), Kansas State Wildcats (4-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0), Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1), East Carolina Pirates (4-1), Kentucky Wildcats (4-1), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Wisconsin Badgers (3-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2)
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
NFL 2014 Week 4 Power Rankings and Week 5 picks
Parity continues to rule in 2014, as there are now only two unbeaten teams (neither of whom played this week) and two winless teams. 2-2 is the most popular record. Nobody is really out of playoff conversations, although the firing of Dennis Allen seems to indicate that the Raiders think they are already out of it. Blake Bortles' development gives some hope to the Jacksonville fans, although the Jags still languish at the bottom of my Power Rankings.
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0) [1]
2. Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [3]
3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) [11] : Big leap for the Ravens, who utterly smashed Carolina
4. San Diego Chargers (3-1) [6]
5. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [4]
6. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) [16] : Okay, so maybe the Cowboys have something after all. Their defense held against a strong Saints offense
7. Detroit Lions (3-1) [7] : Definitely the most impressive NFC North team, although Green Bay looked good this week
8. Houston Texans (3-1) [8] : Not overly impressive win against Buffalo, but winning consistently is impressive this year
9. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) [2] : Fell from the ranks of unbeaten with a tough showing against a revitalized 49ers defense
10. Denver Broncos (2-1) [10]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : They remain on top with an impressive win by Baltimore and two teams who didn't play, helped by tough performances by top teams in other divisions
2. NFC West [2] : Byes helped here, as did the 49ers upset win over Philly
3. NFC East [3] : Dallas and the Giants impressed
4. AFC West [5] : Tremendous games by KC and San Diego bolstered this division
5. NFC North [5] : Green Bay and Minnesota rolled
6. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy did well
7. AFC East [3] : Second week in a row when all teams lost. This is a division in trouble
8. NFC South [8] : Tampa Bay had their first win, but the others lost big
Week 5 picks
Tough picks. I liked more visiting teams than home teams, but ended up picking more home teams. Not sure how this week will fare.
Thursday night: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Teddy looks questionnable, which puts Christian Ponder under center. They won't do much offensively. PACKERS, 28-13
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: The Giants came alive this week! The offense has steadily improved the past two weeks, so perhaps Eli has the new system down. The defense came alive for the first week. If they can continue that against the patchwork Falcons offensive line, they should harrass Matty Ice enough to force bad throws. GIANTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: I wanted to pick the Colts here, but they have struggled against non-divisional opponents, and the Ravens have a potent defense. This game could end up as a Colts victory if they can figure out ways around the Ravens defense, but I'll pick the Ravens. RAVENS, 26-23
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: The Bills started the season 2-0, but are steadily declining. One clear indication? EJ Manual has been replaced as QB with talented but chronic underachiever Kyle Orton. Orton has the arm strength to deliver the ball to key receivers like Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams, but can he keep pace with the Lions and Megatron? Nope. LIONS, 30-17
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: Which team was exposed more vividly last week? I'd say Carolina, as we already knew the Bears' woes in stopping the run. That won't be an issue this game, as the Panthers are thin in the backfield. Cam Newton may find some holes in the secondary, but this will be a Bears showcase. BEARS, 31-20
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: Charlie Whitehurst is not the solution to the Titans' woes, and Zack Mettenberger is not ready to start, so the Brian Hoyer-led Browns stand a better chance to win. BROWNS, 26-24
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: It's the Texans' defense against the suddenly-hot Cowboys offense. I usually lean towards the defense in these battles, but I think some Texans injuries and home field will boost the Cowboys just enough. COWBOYS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: As Bortles improves, the biggest problem with the Jags is their defense. My advice to anyone playing "pick em" contests like me this season: Make your Survivor pick the team facing the Jags. The Steelers will roll. STEELERS, 23-13
St Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: The Rams defense is not good, and that's what is needed to slow the Eagles offense. EAGLES, 31-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Bucs were helped last week by special teams play. I'm not sure they can count on that this week. Can their defense slow the powerful Saints? I doubt it. SAINTS, 27-17
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: Another visiting team I'd love to pick, a rash of defensive injuries and the start of Drew Stanton makes me believe that the Broncos will win this one. BRONCOS, 24-17
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: After their impressive performance last week, I'd love to pick the Chiefs. However, the 49ers seemed to finally find their defense, and I'm not sure they'll lose it again so quickly. This will be a tight game, though, that could finish either way. 49ERS, 26-23
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: You know, the Jets have to be cursing the scheduling gods. They put together one of the strongest run defenses in the league, and they start the season facing some of the best passing teams in the league. UGH! That continues here, as they travel to San Diego. CHARGERS, 27-17
Sunday Night: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: New England has had trouble scoring in the second half of games, and I think Cincy's defense will prevent that this week. Whether Cincy is ahead or behind at halftime, they'll be close enough to pull away in the second half. BENGALS, 27-14
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Kurt Cousins is good, but the Seahawks defense is even better. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
Top 10 [Last week's position]
1. CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-0) [1]
2. Arizona Cardinals (3-0) [3]
3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) [11] : Big leap for the Ravens, who utterly smashed Carolina
4. San Diego Chargers (3-1) [6]
5. Seattle Seahawks (2-1) [4]
6. Dallas Cowboys (3-1) [16] : Okay, so maybe the Cowboys have something after all. Their defense held against a strong Saints offense
7. Detroit Lions (3-1) [7] : Definitely the most impressive NFC North team, although Green Bay looked good this week
8. Houston Texans (3-1) [8] : Not overly impressive win against Buffalo, but winning consistently is impressive this year
9. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) [2] : Fell from the ranks of unbeaten with a tough showing against a revitalized 49ers defense
10. Denver Broncos (2-1) [10]
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [1] : They remain on top with an impressive win by Baltimore and two teams who didn't play, helped by tough performances by top teams in other divisions
2. NFC West [2] : Byes helped here, as did the 49ers upset win over Philly
3. NFC East [3] : Dallas and the Giants impressed
4. AFC West [5] : Tremendous games by KC and San Diego bolstered this division
5. NFC North [5] : Green Bay and Minnesota rolled
6. AFC South [7] : Houston and Indy did well
7. AFC East [3] : Second week in a row when all teams lost. This is a division in trouble
8. NFC South [8] : Tampa Bay had their first win, but the others lost big
Week 5 picks
Tough picks. I liked more visiting teams than home teams, but ended up picking more home teams. Not sure how this week will fare.
Thursday night: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Teddy looks questionnable, which puts Christian Ponder under center. They won't do much offensively. PACKERS, 28-13
Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: The Giants came alive this week! The offense has steadily improved the past two weeks, so perhaps Eli has the new system down. The defense came alive for the first week. If they can continue that against the patchwork Falcons offensive line, they should harrass Matty Ice enough to force bad throws. GIANTS, 27-23
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: I wanted to pick the Colts here, but they have struggled against non-divisional opponents, and the Ravens have a potent defense. This game could end up as a Colts victory if they can figure out ways around the Ravens defense, but I'll pick the Ravens. RAVENS, 26-23
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: The Bills started the season 2-0, but are steadily declining. One clear indication? EJ Manual has been replaced as QB with talented but chronic underachiever Kyle Orton. Orton has the arm strength to deliver the ball to key receivers like Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams, but can he keep pace with the Lions and Megatron? Nope. LIONS, 30-17
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: Which team was exposed more vividly last week? I'd say Carolina, as we already knew the Bears' woes in stopping the run. That won't be an issue this game, as the Panthers are thin in the backfield. Cam Newton may find some holes in the secondary, but this will be a Bears showcase. BEARS, 31-20
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: Charlie Whitehurst is not the solution to the Titans' woes, and Zack Mettenberger is not ready to start, so the Brian Hoyer-led Browns stand a better chance to win. BROWNS, 26-24
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys: It's the Texans' defense against the suddenly-hot Cowboys offense. I usually lean towards the defense in these battles, but I think some Texans injuries and home field will boost the Cowboys just enough. COWBOYS, 28-23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: As Bortles improves, the biggest problem with the Jags is their defense. My advice to anyone playing "pick em" contests like me this season: Make your Survivor pick the team facing the Jags. The Steelers will roll. STEELERS, 23-13
St Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: The Rams defense is not good, and that's what is needed to slow the Eagles offense. EAGLES, 31-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Bucs were helped last week by special teams play. I'm not sure they can count on that this week. Can their defense slow the powerful Saints? I doubt it. SAINTS, 27-17
Sunday late games:
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos: Another visiting team I'd love to pick, a rash of defensive injuries and the start of Drew Stanton makes me believe that the Broncos will win this one. BRONCOS, 24-17
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: After their impressive performance last week, I'd love to pick the Chiefs. However, the 49ers seemed to finally find their defense, and I'm not sure they'll lose it again so quickly. This will be a tight game, though, that could finish either way. 49ERS, 26-23
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: You know, the Jets have to be cursing the scheduling gods. They put together one of the strongest run defenses in the league, and they start the season facing some of the best passing teams in the league. UGH! That continues here, as they travel to San Diego. CHARGERS, 27-17
Sunday Night: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: New England has had trouble scoring in the second half of games, and I think Cincy's defense will prevent that this week. Whether Cincy is ahead or behind at halftime, they'll be close enough to pull away in the second half. BENGALS, 27-14
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Kurt Cousins is good, but the Seahawks defense is even better. SEAHAWKS, 27-17
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