Let's start with the rankings...
Top Ten teams
1. Green Bay Packers (7-0) : The only remaining unbeaten team remains the team to beat
2. New Orleans Saints (5-2) : A record-breaking offensive performance propels this team to the top. Their defense doesn't look too bad as they are in the midst of a two-week meeting of offensively-handicapped teams
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Which team has the best defense in the NFC? This one
4. Detroit Lions (5-2) : Two consective losses are removing the shine from this team
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-2) : Owners of the best defense in the league
6. New England Patriots (5-1) : While the NFC has four teams with a better offense, the Pats are still an offensive force
7. Houston Texans (4-3) : Despite three losses, this defense is still a major threat
8. Buffalo Bills (4-2) : Their offense is clicking, but their defense still lacks some teeth
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) : The offense isn't doing too badly, but the defense lacks some of the rigidity of the past
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) : Another tough defense in the AFC North
Division rankings
1. NFC East : Whoa, there's a surprise! No team in the Top Ten, but they also have NO team with a negative point differential
2. NFC North : Three teams with winning records and two Top Five teams keeps this division high, but if Detroit keeps losing, this ranking is in danger
3. AFC North : With Cincy jumping into the Top Ten, this has become a stiff defensive division
4. AFC East : Miami is holding this division down
5. NFC South : Atlanta is winning, but New Orleans carries this division
6. AFC West : A division with three teams with negative point differentials so highly ranked? Considering ALL THREE of the bottom divisions have that situation, it's not surprising
7. NFC West : The 49ers are the only decent team in this division. This might be the first division title clinched
8. AFC South : With only one team with a winning record and the Colts the only 0-7 team (the other winless teams have had bye weeks), this division deserves the basement
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) : The tough Ravens defense will make this an easy victory. RAVENS, 24-13
Indianapolis Colts (0-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-3) : The Colts are slowly improving; emphasis on the "slowly". QB Matt Hasselbeck is not showing his past flashes of brilliance, but the offense is moving well enough to surpass the Colts. TITANS, 27-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Houston Texans (4-3) : As I stated above, the Texans defense is tough. Add in the Jags difficulties in moving the ball, and the Jags will be lucky to break double digits. TEXANS, 27-6
Miami Dolphins (0-6) at New York Giants (4-2) : Eli and company are in combat mode, but unfortunately their opponents are wearing the same uniform. For other teams internal strife would be distracting, but it's common enough among the Giants that they should still get the job done. GIANTS, 23-17
Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Carolina Panthers (2-5) : The shift to Christian Ponder breathed some life into the Vikings' offense, but the it's the defense that will challenged this week. Cam Newton and the Panthers are racking up yards each week, and this week will be no exception. PANTHERS, 26-21
New Orleans Saints (5-2) at St Louis Rams (0-6) : The Saints could score as much as they did last week, but I'll keep the explosion down. SAINTS, 38-13
Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4) : Cincy's defense will make life difficult for struggling Seahawks offense. BENGALS, 23-16
Cleveland Browns (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Another strong defense that will frustrate their opponent. 49ERS, 20-13
Detroit Lions (5-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) : Tim Tebow has breathed life back into the Broncos, but even his comeback magic will come up short against Detroit, mainly because he won't get enough support from the Broncos defense. LIONS, 30-20
New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) : This should be the most exciting game of the week! Brady and the Pats have beaten the Steelers in their last few encounters, but never count out the Steelers. Their defense is still sharp, and the Pats offense isn't quite as strong as they are used to. Unfortunately Pitt's offense hasn't been lighting up scoreboards, either. PATS, 26-21
Washington Redskins (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2) : This game could go either way. John Beck brings more consistency to the Redskins, but his arm isn't as strong. The Bills can score quickly, but the Redskins defense is capable of slowing them down. I'll favor the home team, but watch for the upset here. BILLS, 27-23
Sunday night: Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) : The Eagles play Dallas tough, but the Eagles are suffering from lackluster performances. Dallas isn't spectacular, but they get the job done. COWBOYS, 24-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - San Diego Chargers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) : KC is coming alive, in the midst of a three-game winning streak, but I think that ends here. The Chargers offense isn't the powerhouse it often is, but they're strong enough to overpower the Chiefs defense. CHARGERS, 27-13
Saturday, October 29, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
NCAA 2011 Week 9 picks
Too many obvious picks - this smells of an upset week!
Tuesday Oct 25
Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Sun Belt begins the week again with two teams looking to even their conference record. I think FIU has more talent, and the home crowd should help boost their confidence. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Wednesday Oct 26
UConn Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, but I think Pitt has a bit more going for them. PITT
Thursday Oct 27
Rice Owls at #7 Houston Cougars: Houston will remain unbeaten and continue their title as one of the most surprising teams of 2011. HOUSTON
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes: Virginia is good, but Miami has talent. Miami's problem has been inconsistency, but I think they'll get it together for this game. MIAMI
Friday Oct 28
BYU Cougars at #25 TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs will make the most of their return to the Top 25, and not allow the tricky Cougars to upset them. TCU
Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at #20 USC Trojans: The Trojans seem to have a chip on their shoulder, upset that they were not granted a reversal of their postseason restriction. They will give Stanford problems, but I still think the Cardinal are stronger than any team in the Pac-12, as they proved against Washington last week. STANFORD
Baylor Bears at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys saw what happened to their in-state rival, and know Robert Griffin III will make things difficult for them. Baylor may take the early lead, but I think the Cowboys defense will figure out how Baylor works, make halftime adjustments, and take over the second half. The Cowboys should remain unbeaten, but this game may be closer than anyone would like. OKLAHOMA STATE
#6 Clemson Tigers at #22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech is usually a good "bounce back" team, but they have a tough opponent this week. I think Tech will suffer a second consecutive loss as Clemson continues to establish their ACC dominance. CLEMSON
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes had an extra week to prepare, but the Badgers are also looking to "bounce back". The Spartans forced some turnovers, but I think Wilson and the guys will be more careful this week, especially since they KNOW Ohio State's defense likes to force turnovers. They beat the Buckeyes last year when Ohio State was a stronger team, so I have to favor Wisconsin, even in the Horseshoe. WISCONSIN
Washington State Cougars at #9 Oregon Ducks: The Cougars suffered a tough loss against Oregon State last week, and now they face the stronger of the two Oregon teams. OREGON
#10 Michigan State Spartans at #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers: As proven earlier this season, the Huskers aren't prepared for the tough defenses that can be found in the Big Ten. The Spartans are the best defense in the league this season, and they'll pester Nebraska. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at #11 Michigan Wolverines: Purdue beat Illinois, but they surprised them with a revamped offense, They should have waited until this game to shake up the offense, because now Michigan will be prepared. MICHIGAN
#14 Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores: Vandy's good season dried up as soon as they started conference play, while Arkansas continues to win. ARKANSAS
#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers: The Gamecocks have injuries and suspension problems, making them ripe for an upset. If the Gamecocks played last week, I'd pick Tennessee. However, Coach Spurrier had an extra week to adjust for the losses, which should give them an edge. SOUTH CAROLINA
#16 Virgnia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils: Duke doesn't stink this season, but it's asking too much for them to beat Tech. VIRGINIA TECH
Missouri Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies are playing hot right now, while the Tigers seem a bit confused and overwhelmed. TEXAS A&M
Iowa State Cyclones at #21 Texas Tech Red Raiders: I don't think the Raiders' offense will allow this team to let down after last week's amazing upset. I think the Raiders actually expected to beat Oklahoma; they attacked the Sooners defense like they knew there were holes to exploit. No emotional let down. TEXAS TECH
Illinois Fighting Illini at #23 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State didn't look too good against Dan Persa and the Northwestern Wildcats, a team the Illinois defense beat up earlier this season. Penn State's defense will be tough, but their offense is still finding an identity. Illni QB Nathan Scheelhaase has his targets and the running game is improving, so watch for the upset here. ILLINOIS
#24 West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to bounce back from last week's upset, but I think the Mountaineers have too many tools. WEST VIRGINIA
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are the first team in the conference to be knocked out of bowl contention. They really don't have many tools this season, while Northwestern stretched Penn State. NORTHWESTERN
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Iowa has bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. They can still compete in the Legends division. IOWA
The rest
NC State Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles still have a shot at the Atlantic division, so they know every game is important. A loss by the Wolf Pack basically removes them from a division title shot. They'll battle to prevent the loss, but the Seminoles will prevail. FLORIDA STATE
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Navy is struggling. The Irish have been doing okay, especially considering the strength of their competition. NOTRE DAME
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils: Colorado is pathetic this season. The Sun Devils win in a landslide. ARIZONA STATE
Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers: Auburn needs a strong victory to bounce back from the LSU game. Fortunately, they get a chance to get one. Ole Miss sits at the bottom of the SEC West, a position not unknown to them. AUBURN
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns: Texas had a bye week, and they lost their Top 25 position due to good play by other teams. They had a week to rest up and prepare, so they'll destroy Kansas and possibly return to the Top 25. TEXAS
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UTEP Miners: Southern Miss is challenging for a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, and they have the tools to reach it. SOUTHERN MISS
Tuesday Oct 25
Troy Trojans at Florida International Golden Panthers: The Sun Belt begins the week again with two teams looking to even their conference record. I think FIU has more talent, and the home crowd should help boost their confidence. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Wednesday Oct 26
UConn Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, but I think Pitt has a bit more going for them. PITT
Thursday Oct 27
Rice Owls at #7 Houston Cougars: Houston will remain unbeaten and continue their title as one of the most surprising teams of 2011. HOUSTON
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes: Virginia is good, but Miami has talent. Miami's problem has been inconsistency, but I think they'll get it together for this game. MIAMI
Friday Oct 28
BYU Cougars at #25 TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs will make the most of their return to the Top 25, and not allow the tricky Cougars to upset them. TCU
Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at #20 USC Trojans: The Trojans seem to have a chip on their shoulder, upset that they were not granted a reversal of their postseason restriction. They will give Stanford problems, but I still think the Cardinal are stronger than any team in the Pac-12, as they proved against Washington last week. STANFORD
Baylor Bears at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys saw what happened to their in-state rival, and know Robert Griffin III will make things difficult for them. Baylor may take the early lead, but I think the Cowboys defense will figure out how Baylor works, make halftime adjustments, and take over the second half. The Cowboys should remain unbeaten, but this game may be closer than anyone would like. OKLAHOMA STATE
#6 Clemson Tigers at #22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech is usually a good "bounce back" team, but they have a tough opponent this week. I think Tech will suffer a second consecutive loss as Clemson continues to establish their ACC dominance. CLEMSON
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes had an extra week to prepare, but the Badgers are also looking to "bounce back". The Spartans forced some turnovers, but I think Wilson and the guys will be more careful this week, especially since they KNOW Ohio State's defense likes to force turnovers. They beat the Buckeyes last year when Ohio State was a stronger team, so I have to favor Wisconsin, even in the Horseshoe. WISCONSIN
Washington State Cougars at #9 Oregon Ducks: The Cougars suffered a tough loss against Oregon State last week, and now they face the stronger of the two Oregon teams. OREGON
#10 Michigan State Spartans at #19 Nebraska Cornhuskers: As proven earlier this season, the Huskers aren't prepared for the tough defenses that can be found in the Big Ten. The Spartans are the best defense in the league this season, and they'll pester Nebraska. MICHIGAN STATE
Purdue Boilermakers at #11 Michigan Wolverines: Purdue beat Illinois, but they surprised them with a revamped offense, They should have waited until this game to shake up the offense, because now Michigan will be prepared. MICHIGAN
#14 Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores: Vandy's good season dried up as soon as they started conference play, while Arkansas continues to win. ARKANSAS
#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers: The Gamecocks have injuries and suspension problems, making them ripe for an upset. If the Gamecocks played last week, I'd pick Tennessee. However, Coach Spurrier had an extra week to adjust for the losses, which should give them an edge. SOUTH CAROLINA
#16 Virgnia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils: Duke doesn't stink this season, but it's asking too much for them to beat Tech. VIRGINIA TECH
Missouri Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies are playing hot right now, while the Tigers seem a bit confused and overwhelmed. TEXAS A&M
Iowa State Cyclones at #21 Texas Tech Red Raiders: I don't think the Raiders' offense will allow this team to let down after last week's amazing upset. I think the Raiders actually expected to beat Oklahoma; they attacked the Sooners defense like they knew there were holes to exploit. No emotional let down. TEXAS TECH
Illinois Fighting Illini at #23 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State didn't look too good against Dan Persa and the Northwestern Wildcats, a team the Illinois defense beat up earlier this season. Penn State's defense will be tough, but their offense is still finding an identity. Illni QB Nathan Scheelhaase has his targets and the running game is improving, so watch for the upset here. ILLINOIS
#24 West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to bounce back from last week's upset, but I think the Mountaineers have too many tools. WEST VIRGINIA
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are the first team in the conference to be knocked out of bowl contention. They really don't have many tools this season, while Northwestern stretched Penn State. NORTHWESTERN
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Iowa has bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. They can still compete in the Legends division. IOWA
The rest
NC State Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles still have a shot at the Atlantic division, so they know every game is important. A loss by the Wolf Pack basically removes them from a division title shot. They'll battle to prevent the loss, but the Seminoles will prevail. FLORIDA STATE
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Navy is struggling. The Irish have been doing okay, especially considering the strength of their competition. NOTRE DAME
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils: Colorado is pathetic this season. The Sun Devils win in a landslide. ARIZONA STATE
Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers: Auburn needs a strong victory to bounce back from the LSU game. Fortunately, they get a chance to get one. Ole Miss sits at the bottom of the SEC West, a position not unknown to them. AUBURN
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns: Texas had a bye week, and they lost their Top 25 position due to good play by other teams. They had a week to rest up and prepare, so they'll destroy Kansas and possibly return to the Top 25. TEXAS
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UTEP Miners: Southern Miss is challenging for a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game, and they have the tools to reach it. SOUTHERN MISS
NCAA 2011 Week 8 Top 25
This week marked the time when some teams learned a bowl bid is no longer possible. None were surprises. Not all conferences had seven-team losers, but most could have one by the end of this week. Only the SEC, Big East, and Big XII don't have candidates to be removed from bowl eligibility in a single week.
The week began with a series of upsets, but ended with only one. The Big East and ACC suffered many of the upsets, as both West Virginia and Rutgers suffered their first conference loss. That leaves Cincinnati in sole possession of the conference lead. Georgia Tech fell to Miami, and NC State demolished Virginia in a game where the outcome wasn't exactly an upset, but the margin of victory certainly was. Cal also won a game like that. Either Utah or Cal could have won, but nobody expected a Utah collapse and a Cal 24-point victory.
The other two upsets occurred in the Top Five, and both could have been much worse. Michigan State led Wisconsin by nine points at halftime, but a comeback engineered by the Badgers tied the game. In fact, overtime seemed likely, but a lucky rebound on a Hail Mary (and a lengthy video replay view to determine if the receiver crossed the goal line) gave the upset victory to the Spartans. The Sooners were in worse shape, trailing by 24 points at one point in the third quarter. They fought back within three, but couldn't overcome the massive deficit caused by Texas Tech. The Raiders beat previously unbeaten Oklahoma and entered the Top 25.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (7-0) [1] : The Cardinal completely destroyed Washington in a week of upsets and close games to firmly establish their top ranking
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [2] : The Tide offense struggled early against Tennessee, but the second half was theirs.
3. LSU Tigers (8-0) [6] : LSU hammered Auburn to state their case for a National Championship bid. Their battle against Alabama in two weeks will be a real "season maker".
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) [5] : The Cowboys take the lead in the Big XII with a solid victory
5. Boise State Broncos (7-0) [7] : The Broncos continue to win, but will likely be excluded from the BCS National Championship
6. Clemson Tigers (8-0) [8] : Wake Forest is now the only team to compete for the Atlantic division title. Beating Georgia Tech this week and Wake on Nov 12th will give them the division title and set them up for an unbeaten season.
7. Houston Cougars (7-0) [9] : Could Houston go unbeaten? They should certainly be unbeaten when they face SMU at the end of November
8. Wisconsin Badgers (6-1) [3] : The last unbeaten team in the Big Ten lost, but their powerful offense still keeps them in the Top Ten
9. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [10]
10. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [15] : A strong victory against Wisconsin propels them into the Top Ten
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [4] : The Sooners suffer their first loss BEFORE they face unbeatens Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Now the Sooners can play spoiler and remove the chance of ANY Big XII team playing for the National title.
13. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) [13] : One of the most impressive victories by the Wildcats this year, but it was against an in-state rival. Let's see how they do against Oklahoma this week!
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1) [12] : What's the worst thing about playing in the SEC West? You can have a great year and STILL not win the division
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) [18] : With the Yellow Jackets loss, the Hokies now control their own destiny to play in the ACC Championship Game
17. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [20] : Great win keeps the Aggies alive in the Big XII
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [19]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) [21]
20. USC Trojans (6-1) [25] : The Trojans continue to impress in a season when they can't play postseason
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) [NR] : An upset victory over Oklahoma propels them into the Top 25
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2) [16]
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) [22] : Won but still dropped? Ten points is not sufficient against a struggling Northwestern team. The Lions have to be concerned about the Illini coming to town this week
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) [17]
25. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) [NR] : The Horned Frogs re-enter the Top 25 with a HUGE one-sided victory
Dropped off: Texas Longhorns [#23], Washington Huskies [#24]
Also in contention: Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-1), Florida State Seminoles (4-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-3), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), BYU Cougars (6-2)
The week began with a series of upsets, but ended with only one. The Big East and ACC suffered many of the upsets, as both West Virginia and Rutgers suffered their first conference loss. That leaves Cincinnati in sole possession of the conference lead. Georgia Tech fell to Miami, and NC State demolished Virginia in a game where the outcome wasn't exactly an upset, but the margin of victory certainly was. Cal also won a game like that. Either Utah or Cal could have won, but nobody expected a Utah collapse and a Cal 24-point victory.
The other two upsets occurred in the Top Five, and both could have been much worse. Michigan State led Wisconsin by nine points at halftime, but a comeback engineered by the Badgers tied the game. In fact, overtime seemed likely, but a lucky rebound on a Hail Mary (and a lengthy video replay view to determine if the receiver crossed the goal line) gave the upset victory to the Spartans. The Sooners were in worse shape, trailing by 24 points at one point in the third quarter. They fought back within three, but couldn't overcome the massive deficit caused by Texas Tech. The Raiders beat previously unbeaten Oklahoma and entered the Top 25.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (7-0) [1] : The Cardinal completely destroyed Washington in a week of upsets and close games to firmly establish their top ranking
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [2] : The Tide offense struggled early against Tennessee, but the second half was theirs.
3. LSU Tigers (8-0) [6] : LSU hammered Auburn to state their case for a National Championship bid. Their battle against Alabama in two weeks will be a real "season maker".
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) [5] : The Cowboys take the lead in the Big XII with a solid victory
5. Boise State Broncos (7-0) [7] : The Broncos continue to win, but will likely be excluded from the BCS National Championship
6. Clemson Tigers (8-0) [8] : Wake Forest is now the only team to compete for the Atlantic division title. Beating Georgia Tech this week and Wake on Nov 12th will give them the division title and set them up for an unbeaten season.
7. Houston Cougars (7-0) [9] : Could Houston go unbeaten? They should certainly be unbeaten when they face SMU at the end of November
8. Wisconsin Badgers (6-1) [3] : The last unbeaten team in the Big Ten lost, but their powerful offense still keeps them in the Top Ten
9. Oregon Ducks (6-1) [10]
10. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [15] : A strong victory against Wisconsin propels them into the Top Ten
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [4] : The Sooners suffer their first loss BEFORE they face unbeatens Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Now the Sooners can play spoiler and remove the chance of ANY Big XII team playing for the National title.
13. Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) [13] : One of the most impressive victories by the Wildcats this year, but it was against an in-state rival. Let's see how they do against Oklahoma this week!
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1) [12] : What's the worst thing about playing in the SEC West? You can have a great year and STILL not win the division
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) [18] : With the Yellow Jackets loss, the Hokies now control their own destiny to play in the ACC Championship Game
17. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [20] : Great win keeps the Aggies alive in the Big XII
18. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1) [19]
19. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-1) [21]
20. USC Trojans (6-1) [25] : The Trojans continue to impress in a season when they can't play postseason
21. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) [NR] : An upset victory over Oklahoma propels them into the Top 25
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-2) [16]
23. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) [22] : Won but still dropped? Ten points is not sufficient against a struggling Northwestern team. The Lions have to be concerned about the Illini coming to town this week
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) [17]
25. TCU Horned Frogs (5-2) [NR] : The Horned Frogs re-enter the Top 25 with a HUGE one-sided victory
Dropped off: Texas Longhorns [#23], Washington Huskies [#24]
Also in contention: Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-1), Florida State Seminoles (4-3), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-3), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), BYU Cougars (6-2)
Saturday, October 22, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 7 picks
Top Ten Teams
1. Green Bay Packers (6-0) : The only remaining unbeaten team sits atop the league!
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Despite a handshake controversy, you can't deny the improvement this team has experienced under Jim Harbaugh
3. Detroit Lions (5-1) : Jim Schwartz may be a bit of a sore loser, but his team and the community are enjoying their best start since Barry Sanders was in the backfield
4. New England Patriots (5-1) : Tom Brady and company are back in command
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2) : A stumble against the Giants doesn't diminish the awesome offensive performances engineered by Ryan Fitzpatrick this season
7. New Orleans Saints (5-1) : They may be one-sided, but the Saints offense still rules
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
9. San Diego Chargers (4-1) : The offense is sputtering, but the defense keeps them winning
10. Houston Texans (3-3) : Don't let their record fool you - this defense is still tough as nails
Division Rankings
1. NFC North: The Lions may have lost, but they still have two of the Top Three teams. The Bears are even looking better, and the Vikings could change their fortunes with Christian Ponder.
2. AFC East: Despite a loss by the Bills, the division leaped over the AFC North for second place.
3. NFC East: Dallas is the only team with a minus point differential, and it's pretty small. That's a competent division.
4. AFC North: With two teams in the Top Ten, and Pittsburgh knocking on the door, Cleveland is the team bringing this division down.
5. AFC South: They have only one team with a winning record, but Houston is strong enough to keep this division afloat.
6. NFC South: With three teams with negative point differentials, the Saints are the only positive aspect of this division.
7. AFC West: San Diego and Oakland are doing fine, and Denver hopes to turn their luck around by putting Tebow under center.
8. NFC West: While Seattle occassionally offers some excitement, the 49ers are the only team of interest in this division.
Sunday early games
Atltanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1): The Lions bounce back by administering a whipping against the Falcons. Matty Ice and the Falcons offense isn't clicking, which opens the door for the Lions offense to establish a strong lead. LIONS, 31-17
Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (4-2): Despite the fact that the Bears have not been impressive for most of the season, I have to go with the upset here. The Bucs have allowed more points than they've scored, and their offense isn't much more stable than the Bears. The Bucs' offensive line is better, but the Bears have better players. I think the Bears have more incentive to win this game, too. BEARS, 24-17
Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5): You have to feel for the winless Dolphins this week. They host equally hapless Denver, who are now led by an inexperienced quarterback, but the home crowd will be rooting for the opposing quarterback! Tim Tebow returns home, and Miami is planning a celebration in his honor. That might anger the Dolphins, and push them to score early, but they will eventually get disallusioned and give up. Tebow will win his first game as a starter, thanks to a road game celebration. BRONCOS, 23-16
Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2): This is a game that really could go either way. Houston has the better personnel, but the Titans find ways to win, and they're at home. Still, I'll pick the visiting team, but only just barely. TEXANS, 23-21
San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3): The Jets defense has lacked the teeth they had the past two years. The Chargers offense hasn't been as dynamic as usual, letting their defense do the work. Mark Sanchez has grown into his job, but I think the Chargers' defense will find ways to rattle him. If the Jets defense doesn't grow claws, the Chargers should win this one. CHARGERS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3): Boy, this one was tough to call. Seattle can surprise, so they're a threat to win practically any week. However, I'm going to go with ANOTHER upset this week, and pick McCoy and the Browns to step it up this week. BROWNS, 20-17
Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5): The Redskins defense was hit last week, so they'll toughen up this week. Grossman was pulled after four interceptions, but I'm not sure it'll matter WHO plays at quarterback; both Rex Grossman and John Beck can beat the pathetic Panthers defense. REDSKINS, 23-17
Sunday late games
Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5): The only unbeaten team in the league should continue to roll, thoroughly trouncing the Vikings in Christian Ponder's starting debut. PACK, 34-17
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2): The Raiders' offense is pretty easy to identify -- just find where Darren McFadden is. Despite that, he's still hard to bring down. The Chiefs aren't scoring much, so the Raiders defense will have it pretty easy this week. RAIDERS, 27-13
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4): How can the Steelers be only 4 point favorites against the Cardinals? Granted, their offense hasn't been strong, but they still have a good defense, and the Cards haven't been able to do much offensively this season so far. Easy win for the Steelers. STEELERS, 23-13
St Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3): The Cowboys defense showed some life last week against the Patriots. They won't need such a defensive performance against the Rams, who own the worst scoring offense in the league. COWBOYS, 27-13
Sunday Night: Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2): Curtis Painter is starting to show some ability, but he's still learning the system. The Colts' offense won't be able to keep up with the Saints offense when they get going. The Colts are happy that the Saints defense isn't too good, so Painter and company get some changes to score, but the Colts' defense won't be too successful at slowing the Saints. SAINTS, 31-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Like the late Sunday games, this will be another runaway. It seems like the Sunday early games will be the only close ones. RAVENS, 21-10
1. Green Bay Packers (6-0) : The only remaining unbeaten team sits atop the league!
2. San Francisco 49ers (5-1) : Despite a handshake controversy, you can't deny the improvement this team has experienced under Jim Harbaugh
3. Detroit Lions (5-1) : Jim Schwartz may be a bit of a sore loser, but his team and the community are enjoying their best start since Barry Sanders was in the backfield
4. New England Patriots (5-1) : Tom Brady and company are back in command
5. Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
6. Buffalo Bills (4-2) : A stumble against the Giants doesn't diminish the awesome offensive performances engineered by Ryan Fitzpatrick this season
7. New Orleans Saints (5-1) : They may be one-sided, but the Saints offense still rules
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)
9. San Diego Chargers (4-1) : The offense is sputtering, but the defense keeps them winning
10. Houston Texans (3-3) : Don't let their record fool you - this defense is still tough as nails
Division Rankings
1. NFC North: The Lions may have lost, but they still have two of the Top Three teams. The Bears are even looking better, and the Vikings could change their fortunes with Christian Ponder.
2. AFC East: Despite a loss by the Bills, the division leaped over the AFC North for second place.
3. NFC East: Dallas is the only team with a minus point differential, and it's pretty small. That's a competent division.
4. AFC North: With two teams in the Top Ten, and Pittsburgh knocking on the door, Cleveland is the team bringing this division down.
5. AFC South: They have only one team with a winning record, but Houston is strong enough to keep this division afloat.
6. NFC South: With three teams with negative point differentials, the Saints are the only positive aspect of this division.
7. AFC West: San Diego and Oakland are doing fine, and Denver hopes to turn their luck around by putting Tebow under center.
8. NFC West: While Seattle occassionally offers some excitement, the 49ers are the only team of interest in this division.
Sunday early games
Atltanta Falcons (3-3) at Detroit Lions (5-1): The Lions bounce back by administering a whipping against the Falcons. Matty Ice and the Falcons offense isn't clicking, which opens the door for the Lions offense to establish a strong lead. LIONS, 31-17
Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (4-2): Despite the fact that the Bears have not been impressive for most of the season, I have to go with the upset here. The Bucs have allowed more points than they've scored, and their offense isn't much more stable than the Bears. The Bucs' offensive line is better, but the Bears have better players. I think the Bears have more incentive to win this game, too. BEARS, 24-17
Denver Broncos (1-4) at Miami Dolphins (0-5): You have to feel for the winless Dolphins this week. They host equally hapless Denver, who are now led by an inexperienced quarterback, but the home crowd will be rooting for the opposing quarterback! Tim Tebow returns home, and Miami is planning a celebration in his honor. That might anger the Dolphins, and push them to score early, but they will eventually get disallusioned and give up. Tebow will win his first game as a starter, thanks to a road game celebration. BRONCOS, 23-16
Houston Texans (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-2): This is a game that really could go either way. Houston has the better personnel, but the Titans find ways to win, and they're at home. Still, I'll pick the visiting team, but only just barely. TEXANS, 23-21
San Diego Chargers (4-1) at New York Jets (3-3): The Jets defense has lacked the teeth they had the past two years. The Chargers offense hasn't been as dynamic as usual, letting their defense do the work. Mark Sanchez has grown into his job, but I think the Chargers' defense will find ways to rattle him. If the Jets defense doesn't grow claws, the Chargers should win this one. CHARGERS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3): Boy, this one was tough to call. Seattle can surprise, so they're a threat to win practically any week. However, I'm going to go with ANOTHER upset this week, and pick McCoy and the Browns to step it up this week. BROWNS, 20-17
Washington Redskins (3-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-5): The Redskins defense was hit last week, so they'll toughen up this week. Grossman was pulled after four interceptions, but I'm not sure it'll matter WHO plays at quarterback; both Rex Grossman and John Beck can beat the pathetic Panthers defense. REDSKINS, 23-17
Sunday late games
Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5): The only unbeaten team in the league should continue to roll, thoroughly trouncing the Vikings in Christian Ponder's starting debut. PACK, 34-17
Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-2): The Raiders' offense is pretty easy to identify -- just find where Darren McFadden is. Despite that, he's still hard to bring down. The Chiefs aren't scoring much, so the Raiders defense will have it pretty easy this week. RAIDERS, 27-13
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-4): How can the Steelers be only 4 point favorites against the Cardinals? Granted, their offense hasn't been strong, but they still have a good defense, and the Cards haven't been able to do much offensively this season so far. Easy win for the Steelers. STEELERS, 23-13
St Louis Rams (0-5) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3): The Cowboys defense showed some life last week against the Patriots. They won't need such a defensive performance against the Rams, who own the worst scoring offense in the league. COWBOYS, 27-13
Sunday Night: Indianapolis Colts (0-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-2): Curtis Painter is starting to show some ability, but he's still learning the system. The Colts' offense won't be able to keep up with the Saints offense when they get going. The Colts are happy that the Saints defense isn't too good, so Painter and company get some changes to score, but the Colts' defense won't be too successful at slowing the Saints. SAINTS, 31-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5): Like the late Sunday games, this will be another runaway. It seems like the Sunday early games will be the only close ones. RAVENS, 21-10
Sunday, October 16, 2011
NCAA 2011 Week 8 picks
This was a fairly easy week to pick, as there are few matchups between Top 25 teams or teams of similar strength.
Tuesday, Oct 18
Florida International Golden Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves: The Golden Panthers were the early favorite, but they have faded. The Red Wolves are a strong team, and they want revenge for their loss to FIU last year. ARKANSAS STATE
Thursday, Oct 20
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats: The Bruins don't have much of a chance to play for the conference title, but they are strong enough to be a nuisance. Against struggling Arizona, they'll be more than that. UCLA
Friday, Oct 21
#17 West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange: Syracuse could play spoiler, but I like the strength of the Mountaineers. WEST VIRGINIA
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals: Rutgers continues their run through the Big East. RUTGERS
Top 25
#24 Washington Huskies at #1 Stanford Cardinal: The Huskies should enjoy their first week in the Top 25, because it looks like it won't last. STANFORD
Tennessee Volunteers at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Vols can be tough, but the rigid Alabama defense will shut them down while the 'Bama offense rolls. ALABAMA
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #4 Oklahoma Sooners: Tech has the potential to upset, as their offense can run. Their defense isn't hot, though, so any stop by the Sooners puts them behind. OKLAHOMA
#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers: The Cowboys will wrangle the struggling Tigers, who are playing like cubs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Auburn Tigers at #6 LSU Tigers: The Tiger face-off in the SEC is always one of the most exciting and bruising games of the season. Here, a preseason favorite to win the BCS Championship plays the current BCS Champ. Up until the past two weeks, LSU has played lackluster. They won't this game, but Auburn will also have incentive to fight hard. This game will be close, closer than LSU would like. LSU
Air Force Falcons at #7 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos will roll as the Falcons continue to struggle to find an offensive identity. BOISE STATE
North Carolina Tar Heels at #8 Clemson Tigers: North Carolina has struggled in the ACC, and this game will be no exception. The Tigers continue their march through the ACC to the title game. CLEMSON
Marshall Thundering Herd at #9 Houston Cougars: Easy win for Houston against a struggling Marshall squad. HOUSTON
#10 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes: Perhaps even an easier victory for the Ducks, as Colorado stinks. OREGON
#12 Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels: Arkansas is yet to face the tougher SEC opponents, so they should enjoy games like this for as long as they can. ARKANSAS
#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas actually played Oklahoma tough in the first half, but couldn't sustain it. Against rival State, they may play them tough for most of the game, but I don't think it'll be enough to win. They may play the Wildcats really close, though. KANSAS STATE
#16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes: Miami may play Tech tough, but the Jackets won't allow themselves to lose two in a row. They may not win by much, though. GEORGIA TECH
Boston College Eagles at #18 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Eagles are basically a non-entity in the ACC this season. VIRGINIA TECH
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls may make things tough for Cincy, but without the stiff defense the Bulls have had in previous seasons, the Bearcats will be able to score. CINCY
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones: Iowa State has yet to win a conference game. That streak continues. A&M
#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Despite some impressive non-conference performances, it has been a poor year for Minnesota. Nebraska will finally get a winning conference record with this victory; that's something Ohio State doesn't have. NEBRASKA
#22 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern looked good until conference play began. Since then, they haven't been able to win. That streak will continue, as Penn State looks to maintain their half-game lead over Wisconsin in the Legends division. PENN STATE
#25 USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish had an extra week to prepare for this game, and that makes this interesting. It's more interesting when you realize that USC has not been as dominant as they have been in previous years, and their defense has some holes. I'm going with my first upset pick here. NOTRE DAME
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue's defense gave Penn State some fits, and they found ways to score. Illinois has a more solid defense, though, and they keep finding more ways to move the ball. Purdue's secondary isn't fast enough to counter AJ Jenkins, so Nathan Scheelhaase will have more completions this week. Illinois regains their winning ways, and becomes bowl eligible with this victory. ILLINOIS
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern confirmed what Iowa State demonstrated - that Iowa's defense has some holes. I don't think Indiana will be able to exploit those holes, though. IOWA
GAME OF THE WEEK: #3 Wisconsin Badgers at #15 Michigan State Spartans: The Big Ten gains their first Game of the Week in a matchup of Top 25 teams. Michigan State comes off an emotional win over their instate rival, while Wisconsin's offense has been rolling over everyone. The Spartans slowed the Michigan offense, but Wisconsin has too many tools to be slowed. WISCONSIN
The rest
Temple Owls at Bowling Green Falcons: Temple is the best team in the MAC, and they continue to prove it every week. TEMPLE
SMU Mustangs at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: This is a close game, a rarity this week. Either team is capable of winning this game, and establishing a solid second place behind Houston. I give a slight edge to the home team, both for the friendly fans and for their stronger performances, but this game truly could go either way. SOUTHERN MISS
Tuesday, Oct 18
Florida International Golden Panthers at Arkansas State Red Wolves: The Golden Panthers were the early favorite, but they have faded. The Red Wolves are a strong team, and they want revenge for their loss to FIU last year. ARKANSAS STATE
Thursday, Oct 20
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats: The Bruins don't have much of a chance to play for the conference title, but they are strong enough to be a nuisance. Against struggling Arizona, they'll be more than that. UCLA
Friday, Oct 21
#17 West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange: Syracuse could play spoiler, but I like the strength of the Mountaineers. WEST VIRGINIA
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals: Rutgers continues their run through the Big East. RUTGERS
Top 25
#24 Washington Huskies at #1 Stanford Cardinal: The Huskies should enjoy their first week in the Top 25, because it looks like it won't last. STANFORD
Tennessee Volunteers at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Vols can be tough, but the rigid Alabama defense will shut them down while the 'Bama offense rolls. ALABAMA
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #4 Oklahoma Sooners: Tech has the potential to upset, as their offense can run. Their defense isn't hot, though, so any stop by the Sooners puts them behind. OKLAHOMA
#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers: The Cowboys will wrangle the struggling Tigers, who are playing like cubs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Auburn Tigers at #6 LSU Tigers: The Tiger face-off in the SEC is always one of the most exciting and bruising games of the season. Here, a preseason favorite to win the BCS Championship plays the current BCS Champ. Up until the past two weeks, LSU has played lackluster. They won't this game, but Auburn will also have incentive to fight hard. This game will be close, closer than LSU would like. LSU
Air Force Falcons at #7 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos will roll as the Falcons continue to struggle to find an offensive identity. BOISE STATE
North Carolina Tar Heels at #8 Clemson Tigers: North Carolina has struggled in the ACC, and this game will be no exception. The Tigers continue their march through the ACC to the title game. CLEMSON
Marshall Thundering Herd at #9 Houston Cougars: Easy win for Houston against a struggling Marshall squad. HOUSTON
#10 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes: Perhaps even an easier victory for the Ducks, as Colorado stinks. OREGON
#12 Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels: Arkansas is yet to face the tougher SEC opponents, so they should enjoy games like this for as long as they can. ARKANSAS
#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas actually played Oklahoma tough in the first half, but couldn't sustain it. Against rival State, they may play them tough for most of the game, but I don't think it'll be enough to win. They may play the Wildcats really close, though. KANSAS STATE
#16 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes: Miami may play Tech tough, but the Jackets won't allow themselves to lose two in a row. They may not win by much, though. GEORGIA TECH
Boston College Eagles at #18 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Eagles are basically a non-entity in the ACC this season. VIRGINIA TECH
#19 Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls: The Bulls may make things tough for Cincy, but without the stiff defense the Bulls have had in previous seasons, the Bearcats will be able to score. CINCY
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones: Iowa State has yet to win a conference game. That streak continues. A&M
#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Despite some impressive non-conference performances, it has been a poor year for Minnesota. Nebraska will finally get a winning conference record with this victory; that's something Ohio State doesn't have. NEBRASKA
#22 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern looked good until conference play began. Since then, they haven't been able to win. That streak will continue, as Penn State looks to maintain their half-game lead over Wisconsin in the Legends division. PENN STATE
#25 USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish had an extra week to prepare for this game, and that makes this interesting. It's more interesting when you realize that USC has not been as dominant as they have been in previous years, and their defense has some holes. I'm going with my first upset pick here. NOTRE DAME
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue's defense gave Penn State some fits, and they found ways to score. Illinois has a more solid defense, though, and they keep finding more ways to move the ball. Purdue's secondary isn't fast enough to counter AJ Jenkins, so Nathan Scheelhaase will have more completions this week. Illinois regains their winning ways, and becomes bowl eligible with this victory. ILLINOIS
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes: Northwestern confirmed what Iowa State demonstrated - that Iowa's defense has some holes. I don't think Indiana will be able to exploit those holes, though. IOWA
GAME OF THE WEEK: #3 Wisconsin Badgers at #15 Michigan State Spartans: The Big Ten gains their first Game of the Week in a matchup of Top 25 teams. Michigan State comes off an emotional win over their instate rival, while Wisconsin's offense has been rolling over everyone. The Spartans slowed the Michigan offense, but Wisconsin has too many tools to be slowed. WISCONSIN
The rest
Temple Owls at Bowling Green Falcons: Temple is the best team in the MAC, and they continue to prove it every week. TEMPLE
SMU Mustangs at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: This is a close game, a rarity this week. Either team is capable of winning this game, and establishing a solid second place behind Houston. I give a slight edge to the home team, both for the friendly fans and for their stronger performances, but this game truly could go either way. SOUTHERN MISS
NCAA 2011 Week 7 Top 25
Which conference do you think is the worst? Not the Sun Belt, not the MAC, not Conference USA -- it's the Western Athletic Conference. The WAC currently has NO team with a winning record, and three teams with even 3-3 records. They have a chance to bump a couple of those to winning records this week, but things still look bleak for the conference.
It nearly turned into Upset Saturday, as we could potentially have seen the first loss of five teams. Two of them pulled it out, but Illinois, Georgia Tech, and Michigan each lost their first game of the season. An anticipated close game against Baylor and Texas A&M turned into a rout, as A&M frustrated Baylor's defense and knocked the Bears from the Top 25.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (6-0) [1] - Struggled a bit against Washington State, but still tops with Andrew Luck under center
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) [3] - Now the only unbeaten in the Big Ten
4. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [5]
6. LSU Tigers (7-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (6-0) [7]
8. Clemson Tigers (7-0) [9] - Amazing comeback to prevent an upset, but their defense definitely needs some work
9. Houston Cougars (6-0) [11]
10. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [15]
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [8]
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [12]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14] - They needed another comeback, but the Gamecocks continue to challenge in the SEC
15. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [16] - Great win against an in-state rival. Let's see how they handle Wisconsin
16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) [10] - Clemson is clearly the top team in the ACC
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [19]
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) [23]
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) [NR] - A second Big East team crosses the Top 25 barrier, setting up an interesting contest on November 12th
20. Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) [22] - Don't dismiss the Aggies yet!
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [21]
22. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) [NR] - The Lions replace the Illini in the Top 25
23. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [17] - The Longhorns are struggling against the tougher opponents in the conference, and there lots of them this year
24. Washington Huskies (5-1) [NR]
25. USC Trojans (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: Baylor Bears [#18], Illinois Fighting Illini [#20], Florida Gators [#24], South Florida Bulls [#25]. The loss of the Gators and the Bulls means that a Florida team is not in the Top 25 for the first time in years
Also in contention: Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Temple Owls (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), SMU Mustangs (5-1), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2)
It nearly turned into Upset Saturday, as we could potentially have seen the first loss of five teams. Two of them pulled it out, but Illinois, Georgia Tech, and Michigan each lost their first game of the season. An anticipated close game against Baylor and Texas A&M turned into a rout, as A&M frustrated Baylor's defense and knocked the Bears from the Top 25.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (6-0) [1] - Struggled a bit against Washington State, but still tops with Andrew Luck under center
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) [3] - Now the only unbeaten in the Big Ten
4. Oklahoma Sooners (7-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [5]
6. LSU Tigers (7-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (6-0) [7]
8. Clemson Tigers (7-0) [9] - Amazing comeback to prevent an upset, but their defense definitely needs some work
9. Houston Cougars (6-0) [11]
10. Oregon Ducks (5-1) [15]
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [8]
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [12]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-1) [14] - They needed another comeback, but the Gamecocks continue to challenge in the SEC
15. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [16] - Great win against an in-state rival. Let's see how they handle Wisconsin
16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1) [10] - Clemson is clearly the top team in the ACC
17. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [19]
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) [23]
19. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) [NR] - A second Big East team crosses the Top 25 barrier, setting up an interesting contest on November 12th
20. Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) [22] - Don't dismiss the Aggies yet!
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [21]
22. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1) [NR] - The Lions replace the Illini in the Top 25
23. Texas Longhorns (4-2) [17] - The Longhorns are struggling against the tougher opponents in the conference, and there lots of them this year
24. Washington Huskies (5-1) [NR]
25. USC Trojans (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: Baylor Bears [#18], Illinois Fighting Illini [#20], Florida Gators [#24], South Florida Bulls [#25]. The loss of the Gators and the Bulls means that a Florida team is not in the Top 25 for the first time in years
Also in contention: Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-1), Temple Owls (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Ohio State Buckeyes (4-3), SMU Mustangs (5-1), Georgia Bulldogs (5-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2), Virginia Cavaliers (4-2)
Saturday, October 15, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 6 picks
Let's start with the top teams and the division rankings:
Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (5-0) : The Lions continue to lead the league, and the Lions fans are enjoying this year.
2. Green Bay Packers (5-0) : I don't know any NFL fan who isn't anxiously awaiting the first game between the Lions and Packers this season!
3. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) : San Francisco leaps into the Top Three after a HUGE wipeout of the Bucs!
4. New England Patriots (4-1) : Brady hasn't been as sharp as normal, but the Pats still dominate
5. Buffalo Bills (4-1) : With one of the most potent offenses in the league, the Bills and Ryan Fitgerald continue to impress
6 (tie). New Orleans Saints (4-1) : The offense keeps the Saints alive, as the defense lacks bite
6 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (3-1) : The Ravens go the other way, as defense and the running game dominate
6 (tie). Houston Texans (3-2) : Matt Schaub is inconsistent, but the defense remains tough
9 (tie). San Diego Chargers (4-1) : Phillip Rivers continues to post decent numbers as the Chargers roll
9 (tie). Washington Redskins (3-1) : Why couldn't Rex Grossman do this when he was a Bear? While we wait for him to collapse, the Redskins rule the NFC East
Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With the only two unbeaten teams in the league, and the Vikings finally in the win column, this division is strong
2. AFC North : This is the only division with no team with a losing record
3. AFC East : Despite hopes for the Jets, none of these teams are showing much defense, but offense is getting it done for Buffalo and the Pats
4. NFC East : The Eagles may be a disappointment, and the Giants' defense not what it used to be, but the Redskins defense is powerful, Rex Grossman is preventing mistakes, and Dallas hasn't collapsed yet.
5. NFC South : Like the AFC East, this division does not have much defense. The Saints offense is the only one rolling well, and as a result the Saints are the only team with a positive point differential. It's amazing they are ranked as high as they are.
6. AFC South : Little offense from this division, but the defense of Houston and Tennessee keep them in contention.
7. AFC West : KC has come on as late, winning their last two games, but they still have offensive problems
8. NFC West : The 49ers are on top, but that's only because the other teams look pathetic.
I'm picking mostly home teams this week. That's good for the fans, but I always worry when my picks are too one-sided.
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2) : Buffalo hasn't seen the types of defense that the Giants are known for. Fortunately for the Bills, the Giants defense hasn't been normal this season. If the Giants defense finds themselves, though, this game could go the other way. BILLS, 27-23
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3): Cam Newton is putting up great yardage totals for the Panthers, but they have trouble finishing games. I think that'll happen again, as the Panthers will lead midway through the fourth quarter, only to have Matty Ice engineer the comeback. FALCONS, 27-26
Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2): Curtis Painter isn't getting the Colts offense moving much better than Kerry Collins could, which plays well into the Bengals' defense. BENGALS, 23-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): The Steelers' defense gets a gift - an offense already struggling. STEELERS, 20-10
Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1): The Eagles' "Dream Team" is becoming a nightmare, and facing the tough Redskins defense won't make things any better. Vick is starting to revert to his "happy feet" mode, but the Redskins' D is too fast to be fooled that way. REDSKINS, 20-17
San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0): Let's face it, the Lions offense is a force. The 49ers' defense will slow them down, but not enough for Alex Smith and company to win this game. LIONS, 27-23
St Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0): Really, is there anyone out there who believes the Rams can win? PACK, 34-13
Sunday late games
Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2): While still lacking some of the ferocity of past great Raiders team, this year's squad is still a defensive force. Through in Darren McFadden on offense, and the Raiders are tough to beat. RAIDERS, 23-16
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1): Brady has been making some mistakes, but he's still generating 300-yard passing games, which overpowers the Cowboys. PATS, 31-23
Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1): These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so I have to favor the home team. Watch out for a Texans' upset, however. RAVENS, 23-21
New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2): The Bucs defense is good, but not good enough to slow the Saints offense. SAINTS, 30-21
Sunday Night
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3): The Bears don't usually do well on night games, but I think they'll prevail here. Jay Cutler has had his problems, but the Bears defense will frustrate the Vikings offense. BEARS, 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3): In the past, these games can sometimes become offensive showcases, but I don't think that'll be the case here. With Chad Henne benched as the Dolphins are already thinking about next year, the Jets have a chance to even their record. JETS, 24-13
Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (5-0) : The Lions continue to lead the league, and the Lions fans are enjoying this year.
2. Green Bay Packers (5-0) : I don't know any NFL fan who isn't anxiously awaiting the first game between the Lions and Packers this season!
3. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) : San Francisco leaps into the Top Three after a HUGE wipeout of the Bucs!
4. New England Patriots (4-1) : Brady hasn't been as sharp as normal, but the Pats still dominate
5. Buffalo Bills (4-1) : With one of the most potent offenses in the league, the Bills and Ryan Fitgerald continue to impress
6 (tie). New Orleans Saints (4-1) : The offense keeps the Saints alive, as the defense lacks bite
6 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (3-1) : The Ravens go the other way, as defense and the running game dominate
6 (tie). Houston Texans (3-2) : Matt Schaub is inconsistent, but the defense remains tough
9 (tie). San Diego Chargers (4-1) : Phillip Rivers continues to post decent numbers as the Chargers roll
9 (tie). Washington Redskins (3-1) : Why couldn't Rex Grossman do this when he was a Bear? While we wait for him to collapse, the Redskins rule the NFC East
Divisional rankings
1. NFC North : With the only two unbeaten teams in the league, and the Vikings finally in the win column, this division is strong
2. AFC North : This is the only division with no team with a losing record
3. AFC East : Despite hopes for the Jets, none of these teams are showing much defense, but offense is getting it done for Buffalo and the Pats
4. NFC East : The Eagles may be a disappointment, and the Giants' defense not what it used to be, but the Redskins defense is powerful, Rex Grossman is preventing mistakes, and Dallas hasn't collapsed yet.
5. NFC South : Like the AFC East, this division does not have much defense. The Saints offense is the only one rolling well, and as a result the Saints are the only team with a positive point differential. It's amazing they are ranked as high as they are.
6. AFC South : Little offense from this division, but the defense of Houston and Tennessee keep them in contention.
7. AFC West : KC has come on as late, winning their last two games, but they still have offensive problems
8. NFC West : The 49ers are on top, but that's only because the other teams look pathetic.
I'm picking mostly home teams this week. That's good for the fans, but I always worry when my picks are too one-sided.
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills (4-1) at New York Giants (3-2) : Buffalo hasn't seen the types of defense that the Giants are known for. Fortunately for the Bills, the Giants defense hasn't been normal this season. If the Giants defense finds themselves, though, this game could go the other way. BILLS, 27-23
Carolina Panthers (1-4) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3): Cam Newton is putting up great yardage totals for the Panthers, but they have trouble finishing games. I think that'll happen again, as the Panthers will lead midway through the fourth quarter, only to have Matty Ice engineer the comeback. FALCONS, 27-26
Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2): Curtis Painter isn't getting the Colts offense moving much better than Kerry Collins could, which plays well into the Bengals' defense. BENGALS, 23-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): The Steelers' defense gets a gift - an offense already struggling. STEELERS, 20-10
Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) at Washington Redskins (3-1): The Eagles' "Dream Team" is becoming a nightmare, and facing the tough Redskins defense won't make things any better. Vick is starting to revert to his "happy feet" mode, but the Redskins' D is too fast to be fooled that way. REDSKINS, 20-17
San Francisco 49ers (4-1) at Detroit Lions (5-0): Let's face it, the Lions offense is a force. The 49ers' defense will slow them down, but not enough for Alex Smith and company to win this game. LIONS, 27-23
St Louis Rams (0-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-0): Really, is there anyone out there who believes the Rams can win? PACK, 34-13
Sunday late games
Cleveland Browns (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-2): While still lacking some of the ferocity of past great Raiders team, this year's squad is still a defensive force. Through in Darren McFadden on offense, and the Raiders are tough to beat. RAIDERS, 23-16
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at New England Patriots (4-1): Brady has been making some mistakes, but he's still generating 300-yard passing games, which overpowers the Cowboys. PATS, 31-23
Houston Texans (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1): These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so I have to favor the home team. Watch out for a Texans' upset, however. RAVENS, 23-21
New Orleans Saints (4-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (3-2): The Bucs defense is good, but not good enough to slow the Saints offense. SAINTS, 30-21
Sunday Night
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3): The Bears don't usually do well on night games, but I think they'll prevail here. Jay Cutler has had his problems, but the Bears defense will frustrate the Vikings offense. BEARS, 23-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Miami Dolphins (0-4) at New York Jets (2-3): In the past, these games can sometimes become offensive showcases, but I don't think that'll be the case here. With Chad Henne benched as the Dolphins are already thinking about next year, the Jets have a chance to even their record. JETS, 24-13
Monday, October 10, 2011
NCAA 2011 Week 7 picks
This week's doesn't have many matchups of Top 25 teams, but we do have some crucial conference games.
Thursday, Oct 13
USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears: USC hasn't been dominating, but they have been winning. Cal might give them some trouble, but I think the Trojans will emerge victorious. USC
Friday, Oct 14
Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans: Hawaii often struggles away from home, but San Jose has been struggling all season. HAWAII
Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars: The Cougars are having a good season, but Stanford's offense is simply too much for them. STANFORD
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels: The Rebels aren't doing well this season. This will be very one-sided. ALABAMA
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Wisconsin Badgers: Indiana is another team who will be smothered by an overwhelming offense. WISCONSIN
#4 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas may score a bit more than Ole Miss or Indiana will score against their opponents, but the Sooners offense will roll. OKLAHOMA
#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #17 Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns got slaughtered by one high-powered offense from Oklahoma, and now they host another one. This one might be worse, as the Cowboys defense has some bite, too. OKLAHOMA STATE
#6 LSU Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols are tough enough to give the Tigers some trouble, but come the fourth quarter LSU will take command. LSU
#7 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams: The Broncos will run over the Rams. BOISE STATE
#8 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans: Now THIS is interesting! An in-state rivalry, the home team coming off a bye week, and a fierce history between these teams will make for an interesting game. The Spartans might pull off the upset, but their play has been too inconsistent for me to pick it. MICHIGAN
#9 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins: Using a rotating wardrobe of uniforms hasn't been as helpful for the Terrapins as it was for the Ducks. Clemson has quietly become the team to beat in the ACC, but Maryland won't be the ones to beat them. CLEMSON
#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers: Don't be fooled by Virginia's 3-2 record. They haven't been able to slow down opponents, which gives Georgia Tech a real chance to take control of this game. GEORGIA TECH
#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Oh, my, I'm really tempted to pick the upset. I think the Raiders can do it,but I can't be positive if my feelings are partly influenced by my belief that Kansas State's record is over-inflated. I'll go with the ranked team, but watch for the upset. KANSAS STATE
#14 South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Gamecocks won't have another record-setting point differential, but they will dominate the 'Dogs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Oregon Ducks: I almost hope the Sun Devils win here, because that further boosts Illinois' stock. I think the Ducks will win, though, although this might be a very close game. OREGON
Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Illinois Fighting Illini: The Buckeyes took an early lead against Nebraska last week, but when QB Bryant Miller went out with a knee injury, the defense fell apart. Miller will likely be back, but he's shown himself to be fragile and susceptible to a rushing defense. Illinois showed how successful they are at a rushing defense when they pestered Arizona State. In the early days of the Jim Tressell era, Illinois was a major thorn in the side of the Buckeyes. Somehow I think the Luke Fickell era will start in a similar fashion. ILLINOIS
#23 Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: This game has upset potential written all over it! In the past, Wake Forest does better when I don't pick them, so I won't. Don't be surprised if they win, though. VIRGINIA TECH
#24 Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers: Florida suffered an embarrassing loss last week, so they may want to redeem themselves. Auburn lost big last week, too, but their offense is more off-track than that of Florida. The defense hasn't been quite cutting it, either. FLORIDA
#25 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies: This is defintely not UConn's year. South Florida is struggling to remain in the Top 25, but the extra week of preparation will help them here. SOUTH FLORIDA
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is ranked nationally on some of the polls. They aren't quite there on mine, but a strong victory here, plus a stumble from a current Top 25 team, might propel them there next week. PENN STATE
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes: With Persa out again, the Wildcats are vulnerable. The Hawkeyes have bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. IOWA
GAME OF THE WEEK: #18 Baylor Bears at #22 Texas A&M Aggies: Baylor, led by dynamo Robert Griffin III, would seem to be the favorite, but the Aggies know their season is on the line here. Dropping three conference games would pretty much eliminate them from title contention, so they will fight hard here. I'll give the nod to the Bears, but the Aggies will keep this close and interesting. BAYLOR
The rest
Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats: The Big East seems to be coming down to a contest between West Virginia and Cincy. If Cincy can avoid stumbling in this "trap" game, they will be in good shape to challenge the Mountaineers for the title. CINCINNATI
Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels: Aside from their victory over Ohio State, the Hurricanes haven't been too impressive this season. With the fall of the Buckeyes, that victory is looking weaker. North Carolina, meanwhile, seems poised to compete with Clemson and Georgia Tech for ACC dominance. NORTH CAROLINA
Buffalo Bulls at Temple Owls: Temple is clearly the tops of the MAC this season. A couple of impressive wins could put them in position to snatch a Top 25 slot if other teams falter. TEMPLE
Iowa State Cyclones at Missouri Tigers: Iowa State has a tendency to crumble in conference games. If they can stay tough and defeat the struggling Tigers, they will still keep pace with the conference leaders. IOWA STATE
Navy Midshipmen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to prove that they are a force in the Big East, too. Navy is struggling, but could give the Knights some problems. RUTGERS
Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies: The Huskies should be able to trounce the struggling Buffaloes. WASHINGTON
Central Florida Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: These two are fairly evenly matched. I offer pick the home team in those situations, and I will again. SMU
Thursday, Oct 13
USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears: USC hasn't been dominating, but they have been winning. Cal might give them some trouble, but I think the Trojans will emerge victorious. USC
Friday, Oct 14
Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans: Hawaii often struggles away from home, but San Jose has been struggling all season. HAWAII
Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars: The Cougars are having a good season, but Stanford's offense is simply too much for them. STANFORD
#2 Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels: The Rebels aren't doing well this season. This will be very one-sided. ALABAMA
Indiana Hoosiers at #3 Wisconsin Badgers: Indiana is another team who will be smothered by an overwhelming offense. WISCONSIN
#4 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks: Kansas may score a bit more than Ole Miss or Indiana will score against their opponents, but the Sooners offense will roll. OKLAHOMA
#5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #17 Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns got slaughtered by one high-powered offense from Oklahoma, and now they host another one. This one might be worse, as the Cowboys defense has some bite, too. OKLAHOMA STATE
#6 LSU Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols are tough enough to give the Tigers some trouble, but come the fourth quarter LSU will take command. LSU
#7 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams: The Broncos will run over the Rams. BOISE STATE
#8 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans: Now THIS is interesting! An in-state rivalry, the home team coming off a bye week, and a fierce history between these teams will make for an interesting game. The Spartans might pull off the upset, but their play has been too inconsistent for me to pick it. MICHIGAN
#9 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins: Using a rotating wardrobe of uniforms hasn't been as helpful for the Terrapins as it was for the Ducks. Clemson has quietly become the team to beat in the ACC, but Maryland won't be the ones to beat them. CLEMSON
#10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers: Don't be fooled by Virginia's 3-2 record. They haven't been able to slow down opponents, which gives Georgia Tech a real chance to take control of this game. GEORGIA TECH
#13 Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Oh, my, I'm really tempted to pick the upset. I think the Raiders can do it,but I can't be positive if my feelings are partly influenced by my belief that Kansas State's record is over-inflated. I'll go with the ranked team, but watch for the upset. KANSAS STATE
#14 South Carolina Gamecocks at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Gamecocks won't have another record-setting point differential, but they will dominate the 'Dogs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Oregon Ducks: I almost hope the Sun Devils win here, because that further boosts Illinois' stock. I think the Ducks will win, though, although this might be a very close game. OREGON
Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Illinois Fighting Illini: The Buckeyes took an early lead against Nebraska last week, but when QB Bryant Miller went out with a knee injury, the defense fell apart. Miller will likely be back, but he's shown himself to be fragile and susceptible to a rushing defense. Illinois showed how successful they are at a rushing defense when they pestered Arizona State. In the early days of the Jim Tressell era, Illinois was a major thorn in the side of the Buckeyes. Somehow I think the Luke Fickell era will start in a similar fashion. ILLINOIS
#23 Virginia Tech Hokies at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: This game has upset potential written all over it! In the past, Wake Forest does better when I don't pick them, so I won't. Don't be surprised if they win, though. VIRGINIA TECH
#24 Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers: Florida suffered an embarrassing loss last week, so they may want to redeem themselves. Auburn lost big last week, too, but their offense is more off-track than that of Florida. The defense hasn't been quite cutting it, either. FLORIDA
#25 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies: This is defintely not UConn's year. South Florida is struggling to remain in the Top 25, but the extra week of preparation will help them here. SOUTH FLORIDA
Big Ten
Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State is ranked nationally on some of the polls. They aren't quite there on mine, but a strong victory here, plus a stumble from a current Top 25 team, might propel them there next week. PENN STATE
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes: With Persa out again, the Wildcats are vulnerable. The Hawkeyes have bounced back well from their loss to Iowa State. IOWA
GAME OF THE WEEK: #18 Baylor Bears at #22 Texas A&M Aggies: Baylor, led by dynamo Robert Griffin III, would seem to be the favorite, but the Aggies know their season is on the line here. Dropping three conference games would pretty much eliminate them from title contention, so they will fight hard here. I'll give the nod to the Bears, but the Aggies will keep this close and interesting. BAYLOR
The rest
Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats: The Big East seems to be coming down to a contest between West Virginia and Cincy. If Cincy can avoid stumbling in this "trap" game, they will be in good shape to challenge the Mountaineers for the title. CINCINNATI
Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels: Aside from their victory over Ohio State, the Hurricanes haven't been too impressive this season. With the fall of the Buckeyes, that victory is looking weaker. North Carolina, meanwhile, seems poised to compete with Clemson and Georgia Tech for ACC dominance. NORTH CAROLINA
Buffalo Bulls at Temple Owls: Temple is clearly the tops of the MAC this season. A couple of impressive wins could put them in position to snatch a Top 25 slot if other teams falter. TEMPLE
Iowa State Cyclones at Missouri Tigers: Iowa State has a tendency to crumble in conference games. If they can stay tough and defeat the struggling Tigers, they will still keep pace with the conference leaders. IOWA STATE
Navy Midshipmen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers wants to prove that they are a force in the Big East, too. Navy is struggling, but could give the Knights some problems. RUTGERS
Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies: The Huskies should be able to trounce the struggling Buffaloes. WASHINGTON
Central Florida Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: These two are fairly evenly matched. I offer pick the home team in those situations, and I will again. SMU
Sunday, October 9, 2011
NCAA 2011 Top 25 - Week 6
It was a relatively calm week, at least in terms of upsets. Only one game, Buffalo against Ohio in the MAC, could really be called an upset, as the Bulls edged past the Bobcats by a point. The other "upsets" were found in point differentials, especially a 30-point loss suffered by Florida and the complete destruction of Texas engineered by the Sooners.
My Alma Mater, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, cracked the Top 25. They didn't beat Indiana by as much as I thought, but Miami's loss and Arizona State's commanding victory over Utah (which boosted Illinois' strength of schedule) pushed the Illini to #20. They now face one of their hated rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are coming off their first two-game consecutive losing streak in over ten years, so there is reason for concern. See how I pick that game in my other column.
The top of the rankings remained fairly stable, which is unusual for this point in the season. A further indicator that this week was not an upset contender.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (5-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3]
4. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) [5]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [4]
6. LSU Tigers (6-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (5-0) [9]
8. Michigan Wolverines (6-0) [8]
9. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [10]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) [11]
11. Houston Cougars (6-0) [15] - huge victory will draw more national attention to this team
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [14]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (5-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) [18] - one of the largest SEC margins of victory in Gamecocks' 15. history!
15. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [17]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [16]
17. Texas Longhorns (4-1) [7]
18. Baylor Bears (4-1) [19]
19. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [NR]
20. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-0) [26]
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [20] - Amazing come from behind victory, but could they have done it if Braxton Miller hadn't been injured?
22. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) [21]
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [22]
24. Florida Gators (4-2) [12]
25. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [23]
Dropped: Miami Hurricanes [#24], Auburn Tigers [#25]
In contention: Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1)
My Alma Mater, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, cracked the Top 25. They didn't beat Indiana by as much as I thought, but Miami's loss and Arizona State's commanding victory over Utah (which boosted Illinois' strength of schedule) pushed the Illini to #20. They now face one of their hated rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are coming off their first two-game consecutive losing streak in over ten years, so there is reason for concern. See how I pick that game in my other column.
The top of the rankings remained fairly stable, which is unusual for this point in the season. A further indicator that this week was not an upset contender.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (5-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [2]
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3]
4. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) [5]
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) [4]
6. LSU Tigers (6-0) [6]
7. Boise State Broncos (5-0) [9]
8. Michigan Wolverines (6-0) [8]
9. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [10]
10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) [11]
11. Houston Cougars (6-0) [15] - huge victory will draw more national attention to this team
12. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) [14]
13. Kansas State Wildcats (5-0) [13]
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) [18] - one of the largest SEC margins of victory in Gamecocks' 15. history!
15. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [17]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [16]
17. Texas Longhorns (4-1) [7]
18. Baylor Bears (4-1) [19]
19. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1) [NR]
20. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-0) [26]
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [20] - Amazing come from behind victory, but could they have done it if Braxton Miller hadn't been injured?
22. Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) [21]
23. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [22]
24. Florida Gators (4-2) [12]
25. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [23]
Dropped: Miami Hurricanes [#24], Auburn Tigers [#25]
In contention: Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1), Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1), Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (5-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1)
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
NFL 2011 Week 5 picks
I finally found some time to determine top teams and divisions. The top teams I'll limit to the Top Ten (although I have ranked all 32 teams).
Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (4-0) : Their offense is clicking, and their defense is pretty tough, too. I don't have records that go back far enough to show the Lions at the top of the league; it must be at least 1983 since that was the case.
2. Green Bay Packers (4-0) : What's this? The top TWO teams come from the NFC North? Believe it! The old "black and blue" division has two shocking good offenses. The Pack's is even better than Detroit's, but their defense suffers a bit.
3 (tie). New England Patriots (3-1) : The Pats lead a three-way congestion for third place. Their offense is good, even though Brady that one bad game against Buffalo, and their defense is good, but there are still some holes that can be exploited on this team.
3 (tie). Houston Texans (3-1) : The first team whose defense outshines the offense, the Texans are proving a difficult road block for many teams.
3 (tie). Buffalo Bills (3-1) : Ryan Fitzgerald has this team clicking ever since he took over as starter late last season. He also has them believing in themselves as winners; perhaps the most difficult task to accomplish for the former AFC contenders (remember when Jim Kelly lead this team to four consecutive Super Bowls?).
6. Balitmore Ravens (3-1) : Another team with a strong defense than offense, age is starting to crack their veneer a bit, but they are still a powerful team that wears down opponents.
7. New Orleans Saints (3-1) : Their offense isn't quite as strong as their Super Bowl year, and their defense has problems, but they still give opposing defenses problems.
8. Tennessee Titans (3-1) : They are righting an offense that struggled in the early part of the season, and their defense is outstanding!
9. Washington Redskins (3-1) : Washington leading the NFC East? Believe it! While they are assisted by a meltdown of the Eagles, the Redskins defense is actually the best in the division.
10. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) : Alex Smith is showing promise, and the defense is tough as nails. That is a legacy left to Jim Harbaugh by Mike Singletary.
Division rankings
1. NFC North : With the top two teams in the league, where do you expect them to be? Until Green Bay and Detroit play each other, those two should linger near the top, helping to ensure this division's lead.
2. AFC East : They have two of the teams tied for third place, and the Jets are still a force. Miami is the only team dragging them down.
3. NFC East : This is the division with the highest overall value of points scored v points allowed. If Philly can right themselves, they could contest with the NFC North.
4. AFC North : The only division with NO team with a losing record, this division is home to the best overall defenses.
5. NFC South : If Atlanta could stop making mistakes, this division might be higher. As it is, no team is pathetic. Carolina may be 1-3, but with the numbers Cam Newton is posting, they'll be better than that soon enough.
6. AFC South : Who would have thought that it would Indy dragging this division down? You can't blame it all on them, as the offensive woes of Jacksonville are becoming a joke, but the Colts need to get something going.
7. AFC West : Only San Diego has a positive difference in points scored v points allowed, and their defense is such that the difference is less than ten. This division is suffering.
8. NFC West : Once again, the division leader is the only team showing any type of strength. This year, that's the 49ers.
Bye weeks start this week, so there are fewer games to pick.
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4): I'd love to pick the Vikings, and they might win their first game, but I think Kevin Kolb has better tools. With the Vikings defense struggling, the Cards get a chance to show what they can do, although neither offense will light up the scoreboard. CARDS, 17-13
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): Cincinnati is inconsistent and sporadic. If the "bad" Bengals show up, they could potentially lose this game. However, Jacksonville's offense is struggling too much to make them an upset pick here. BENGALS, 21-13
Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-4): Here's my projected upset! The Chiefs were able to up-end the Vikings, but the Colts have been close in three of their four losses. The offense is starting to click, and even Curtis Painter shows signs of moving the ball. Matt Cassell has definitely taken a step backwards in his field sense and delivery. COLTS, 20-16
New Orleans Saints (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-3): The Panthers are a decent offense, so they'll score against the slow Saints defense. However, the Saints can score, too, and the Panthers defense is worse. The difference might be special teams, and there the Saints prevail. SAINTS, 31-21
Oakland Raiders (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1): Oakland can be tricky, but Houston is tough! Their defense is stingy, and Matt Schaub has their offense looking good. TEXANS, 24-16
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1): I saw a program on ESPN this morning where someone (I didn't immediately recognize him, and didn't catch the name - I couldn't watch for long) was still predicting a winning season for the Eagles. That happened primarily by beating Washington twice (ain't gonna happen) and getting past the Bears defense (which unless they are as injured as Vick when they meet, also won't likely happen). While this analyst apparently still can't give up the attraction of the preseason hyped "Dream Team", at least even HE figured the Bills would beat the Eagles. Who am I to argue with a rabid Eagles supporter? BILLS, 31-20
Seattle Seahawks (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1): When the Seahawks get their back against the wall is when they can be the most dangerous, as NFC West and NFC playoff teams discovered late last season. They are in that position now, knowing another early loss makes the likelihood of reaching the playoffs remote. Certainly the Giants look like a great candidate to upset. Their defense hasn't looked very sharp and the offense has made some costly and stupid mistakes. Still, the Giants offense has improved greatly from the pathetic unit on display during the preseason, and I think they'll eke out this game. GIANTS, 20-17
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Speaking of fighters when their backs are against the wall, that describes Pittsburgh well. This will be a defensive battle, and Pittsburgh usually wins those games. Here's another upset pick. STEELERS, 17-13
Sunday late games
New York Jets (2-2) at New England Patriots (3-1): The Jets are 2-2 and hopping mad about it. However, despite New York's defense, these games tend to be offensive showdowns, and Sanchez and company have been making too many mistakes recently to favor them. PATS, 30-24
San Diego Chargers (3-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2): No upset here. San Diego's offense will roll over Denver. CHARGERS, 27-17
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1): Man, I almost don't want EITHER team to lose! It's nice to see two teams whose recent fortunes haven't been good to lead their respective divisions, and be among the top teams in the league. This will be a close game where defense makes the difference, and that often goes to the home team. 49ERS, 21-20
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2): Atlanta's going to wish they didn't draw the NFC North this season. A loss to the Bears and a showdown against the Lions still to come, they can't be happy about this game. The Pack has the weakest defense of the three, so Atlanta will score, but they won't be able to stop the massive offensive onslaught of Green Bay. PACK, 31-23
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (4-0): I'd love to pick the Bears, but they rarely play well on Monday Night. They have to face the streaking Lions, a team definitely on the rise in 2011. Sorry to say, this one won't go well for Chicago. LIONS, 30-20
Top Ten Teams
1. Detroit Lions (4-0) : Their offense is clicking, and their defense is pretty tough, too. I don't have records that go back far enough to show the Lions at the top of the league; it must be at least 1983 since that was the case.
2. Green Bay Packers (4-0) : What's this? The top TWO teams come from the NFC North? Believe it! The old "black and blue" division has two shocking good offenses. The Pack's is even better than Detroit's, but their defense suffers a bit.
3 (tie). New England Patriots (3-1) : The Pats lead a three-way congestion for third place. Their offense is good, even though Brady that one bad game against Buffalo, and their defense is good, but there are still some holes that can be exploited on this team.
3 (tie). Houston Texans (3-1) : The first team whose defense outshines the offense, the Texans are proving a difficult road block for many teams.
3 (tie). Buffalo Bills (3-1) : Ryan Fitzgerald has this team clicking ever since he took over as starter late last season. He also has them believing in themselves as winners; perhaps the most difficult task to accomplish for the former AFC contenders (remember when Jim Kelly lead this team to four consecutive Super Bowls?).
6. Balitmore Ravens (3-1) : Another team with a strong defense than offense, age is starting to crack their veneer a bit, but they are still a powerful team that wears down opponents.
7. New Orleans Saints (3-1) : Their offense isn't quite as strong as their Super Bowl year, and their defense has problems, but they still give opposing defenses problems.
8. Tennessee Titans (3-1) : They are righting an offense that struggled in the early part of the season, and their defense is outstanding!
9. Washington Redskins (3-1) : Washington leading the NFC East? Believe it! While they are assisted by a meltdown of the Eagles, the Redskins defense is actually the best in the division.
10. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) : Alex Smith is showing promise, and the defense is tough as nails. That is a legacy left to Jim Harbaugh by Mike Singletary.
Division rankings
1. NFC North : With the top two teams in the league, where do you expect them to be? Until Green Bay and Detroit play each other, those two should linger near the top, helping to ensure this division's lead.
2. AFC East : They have two of the teams tied for third place, and the Jets are still a force. Miami is the only team dragging them down.
3. NFC East : This is the division with the highest overall value of points scored v points allowed. If Philly can right themselves, they could contest with the NFC North.
4. AFC North : The only division with NO team with a losing record, this division is home to the best overall defenses.
5. NFC South : If Atlanta could stop making mistakes, this division might be higher. As it is, no team is pathetic. Carolina may be 1-3, but with the numbers Cam Newton is posting, they'll be better than that soon enough.
6. AFC South : Who would have thought that it would Indy dragging this division down? You can't blame it all on them, as the offensive woes of Jacksonville are becoming a joke, but the Colts need to get something going.
7. AFC West : Only San Diego has a positive difference in points scored v points allowed, and their defense is such that the difference is less than ten. This division is suffering.
8. NFC West : Once again, the division leader is the only team showing any type of strength. This year, that's the 49ers.
Bye weeks start this week, so there are fewer games to pick.
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-4): I'd love to pick the Vikings, and they might win their first game, but I think Kevin Kolb has better tools. With the Vikings defense struggling, the Cards get a chance to show what they can do, although neither offense will light up the scoreboard. CARDS, 17-13
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3): Cincinnati is inconsistent and sporadic. If the "bad" Bengals show up, they could potentially lose this game. However, Jacksonville's offense is struggling too much to make them an upset pick here. BENGALS, 21-13
Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (0-4): Here's my projected upset! The Chiefs were able to up-end the Vikings, but the Colts have been close in three of their four losses. The offense is starting to click, and even Curtis Painter shows signs of moving the ball. Matt Cassell has definitely taken a step backwards in his field sense and delivery. COLTS, 20-16
New Orleans Saints (3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-3): The Panthers are a decent offense, so they'll score against the slow Saints defense. However, the Saints can score, too, and the Panthers defense is worse. The difference might be special teams, and there the Saints prevail. SAINTS, 31-21
Oakland Raiders (2-2) at Houston Texans (3-1): Oakland can be tricky, but Houston is tough! Their defense is stingy, and Matt Schaub has their offense looking good. TEXANS, 24-16
Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-1): I saw a program on ESPN this morning where someone (I didn't immediately recognize him, and didn't catch the name - I couldn't watch for long) was still predicting a winning season for the Eagles. That happened primarily by beating Washington twice (ain't gonna happen) and getting past the Bears defense (which unless they are as injured as Vick when they meet, also won't likely happen). While this analyst apparently still can't give up the attraction of the preseason hyped "Dream Team", at least even HE figured the Bills would beat the Eagles. Who am I to argue with a rabid Eagles supporter? BILLS, 31-20
Seattle Seahawks (1-3) at New York Giants (3-1): When the Seahawks get their back against the wall is when they can be the most dangerous, as NFC West and NFC playoff teams discovered late last season. They are in that position now, knowing another early loss makes the likelihood of reaching the playoffs remote. Certainly the Giants look like a great candidate to upset. Their defense hasn't looked very sharp and the offense has made some costly and stupid mistakes. Still, the Giants offense has improved greatly from the pathetic unit on display during the preseason, and I think they'll eke out this game. GIANTS, 20-17
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): Speaking of fighters when their backs are against the wall, that describes Pittsburgh well. This will be a defensive battle, and Pittsburgh usually wins those games. Here's another upset pick. STEELERS, 17-13
Sunday late games
New York Jets (2-2) at New England Patriots (3-1): The Jets are 2-2 and hopping mad about it. However, despite New York's defense, these games tend to be offensive showdowns, and Sanchez and company have been making too many mistakes recently to favor them. PATS, 30-24
San Diego Chargers (3-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2): No upset here. San Diego's offense will roll over Denver. CHARGERS, 27-17
Tampa Bay Bucs (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1): Man, I almost don't want EITHER team to lose! It's nice to see two teams whose recent fortunes haven't been good to lead their respective divisions, and be among the top teams in the league. This will be a close game where defense makes the difference, and that often goes to the home team. 49ERS, 21-20
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2): Atlanta's going to wish they didn't draw the NFC North this season. A loss to the Bears and a showdown against the Lions still to come, they can't be happy about this game. The Pack has the weakest defense of the three, so Atlanta will score, but they won't be able to stop the massive offensive onslaught of Green Bay. PACK, 31-23
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Detroit Lions (4-0): I'd love to pick the Bears, but they rarely play well on Monday Night. They have to face the streaking Lions, a team definitely on the rise in 2011. Sorry to say, this one won't go well for Chicago. LIONS, 30-20
Sunday, October 2, 2011
NCAA 2011 Week 6 picks
With everyone getting into conference play, there should be some interesting rivalry games where records don't matter as much. Let's see where upsets can come from...
Thursday, Oct 6
California Golden Bears at #17 Oregon Ducks: Oregon has the edge, but Cal can be tricky. Oregon learned something from their Week 1 defeat by LSU - don't take anything for granted. They also learned to be more careful with the ball. Cal might need a turnover to win this game, and I don't know if the Ducks will give them one. OREGON
Friday, Oct 7
#9 Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs: Fresno is struggling this season, so this will be an easy win for the Broncos. BOISE STATE
Top 25
Colorado Buffaloes at #1 Stanford Cardinal: Colorado is counting their money, which is the only good thing to come from moving to the Pac-12. Actually, given the number of unbeaten teams in the Big XII right now, maybe Colorado has a better shot at a decent season in this conference than their old home. This game won't help that quest. STANFORD
Vanderbilit Commodores at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: If the Tide can prevent a letdown after their tremendous win in the Swamp, this game shouldn't be too tough. The Commodores aren't as pitiful as most years, so the Tide should take them seriously. I think Nick Saban will. ALABAMA
Kansas Jayhawks at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys took an extra week to prepare for this game, not that I think they needed it. OKLAHOMA STATE
#12 Florida Gators at #6 LSU Tigers: The Gators want to vindicate themselves after a horrible loss in the Swamp. They will play LSU tough. I think the Tigers will win, because they have a better defense, but this is a definite upset possibility. LSU
#8 Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: You have to pity the Wildcats. They just get Persa back at QB, and he's knocked out in the fourth quarter against Illinois. They had a two-score lead in the third quarter, and that gets erased. Now they get another high-powered offense coming into town. The Wolverines defense isn't as good, but with Persa injured again, they won't need as strong a defense as the Illini did. MICHIGAN
Boston College Eagles at #10 Clemson Tigers: Clemson is not used to being the team to beat in the ACC, but they should maintain that status against a struggling Eagles team. CLEMSON
Maryland Terrapins at #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets got past North Carolina and NC State, but Maryland can be tough. This one has upset potential, but I'll stick with Tech. GEORGIA TECH
Missouri Tigers at #13 Kansas State Wildcats: Missouri is in the midst of a rebuilding year, so Kansas State won't really be tested this week. KANSAS STATE
#25 Auburn Tigers at #14 Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas gets a real test. The Tigers are unbeaten in conference play, while Arkansas lost to Alabama. This game also has upset written all over it, but I like the home team. They played well in their loss to Alabama (much better than Florida did), while Auburn has not looked sharp. Auburn hasn't faced the toughest teams in the conference yet. The Tigers are young; they are learning quickly, but I don't think they've learned enough to stop Arkansas. ARKANSAS
East Carolina Pirates at #15 Houston Cougars: East Carolina's only win this season has been against a conference opponent, but they now they face their greatest challenge. The Pirates' defense is not working well this year, which opens the door to the Cougars' offense. HOUSTON
Kentucky Wildcats at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks need to bounce back from their close loss to Auburn, and throttling Kentucky seems a good way to do that. SOUTH CAROLINA
Iowa State Cyclones at #19 Baylor Bears: The Cyclones lost their first game last week, as did Baylor. This will be a redemption game for one of them. Baylor lost by only a single point, while the Cyclones were thrashed. The Cyclones will be hotter for a victory, but the Bears have Robert Griffin III. He may have thrown his first interception at the end of the game last week, but he's still the most accurate passer in FBS. BAYLOR
Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Speaking of redemption game, here's another one. Both teams lost in their conference opener. Nebraska's defense was demolished by the high-powered offense of Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes offense has sputtered all season long. They get back their best receiver and best runner this week, though, so that might make the difference for Ohio State. Nebraska is a good team, but they aren't used to the tough defenses in the Big Ten; the defenses aren't as tough in the Big XII. That will make the difference. OHIO STATE in a stunner
#21 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Aggies started the season strongly, but I think their time is over. They aren't consistent enough to keep pace with the offenses of the top teams in the Biog XII. The Aggies will lose their Top 25 ranking while the Raiders gain one with their first win against a strong team. TEXAS TECH
#24 Miami Hurricanes at #22 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hurricanes had an extra week to prepare, but the worst thing that could have happened to Miami was a Hokie loss last week. Now Tech is committed to keep pace with the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division. Miami's defense will control the pace early, but Tech will wear down the defense, allowing them to come from behind. VIRGINIA TECH
Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers: Minnesota was destroyed last week, while Purdue got a break. The Gophers showed strength earlier this season, but they've been gradually losing it. Purdue is rested and desperate for a win in their conference opener. I like their chances. PURDUE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers: The Illini are 5-0 for the first time since 1951, when Dick Butkus guided them to a national championship. Likely losses by Nebraska, Auburn, and the Miami-Virginia Tech loser will provide openings in the rankings that Illinois can grab with an impressive win. ILLINOIS
Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: Iowa has fallen off the radar after lackluster non-conference performances, so they want a strong victory in their conference opener to recapture attention. Penn State always battles hard. Both teams have some quarterback issues, but Penn State has the better defense. PENN STATE
And the rest...
UConn Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers redeem themselves with a big victory over the defending conference winner in their Big East opener. WEST VIRGINIA
Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake Forest has the better record, but they haven't played well, and have played mostly weak teams. The Seminoles have toughened themselves with games against Oklahoma and Clemson. Although those were losses, they kept themselves in those games, thanks to a stiff defense. That defense will swarm Wake Forest. FLORIDA STATE
Air Force Falcons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: A huge victory over Purdue might set up the Irish for a letdown, but they love to beat the Falcons. They have the tools to do it. NOTRE DAME
Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers leads the conference right now, thanks to a 3-1 record and win over Syracuse. However, they face the only other team to beat a Big East opponent this season. Pitt will make it two. PITT
Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers: With the losses to Florida and South Carolina last week, many national analysts are looking at Georgia to be a dark horse candidate to win the SEC East. I'd say that is EXTREMELY dark. The Bulldogs have not been impressive in their victories, while other teams in the division have impressed. One of them? Tennessee, who should win this match. TENNESSEE
Thursday, Oct 6
California Golden Bears at #17 Oregon Ducks: Oregon has the edge, but Cal can be tricky. Oregon learned something from their Week 1 defeat by LSU - don't take anything for granted. They also learned to be more careful with the ball. Cal might need a turnover to win this game, and I don't know if the Ducks will give them one. OREGON
Friday, Oct 7
#9 Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs: Fresno is struggling this season, so this will be an easy win for the Broncos. BOISE STATE
Top 25
Colorado Buffaloes at #1 Stanford Cardinal: Colorado is counting their money, which is the only good thing to come from moving to the Pac-12. Actually, given the number of unbeaten teams in the Big XII right now, maybe Colorado has a better shot at a decent season in this conference than their old home. This game won't help that quest. STANFORD
Vanderbilit Commodores at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide: If the Tide can prevent a letdown after their tremendous win in the Swamp, this game shouldn't be too tough. The Commodores aren't as pitiful as most years, so the Tide should take them seriously. I think Nick Saban will. ALABAMA
Kansas Jayhawks at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys took an extra week to prepare for this game, not that I think they needed it. OKLAHOMA STATE
#12 Florida Gators at #6 LSU Tigers: The Gators want to vindicate themselves after a horrible loss in the Swamp. They will play LSU tough. I think the Tigers will win, because they have a better defense, but this is a definite upset possibility. LSU
#8 Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats: You have to pity the Wildcats. They just get Persa back at QB, and he's knocked out in the fourth quarter against Illinois. They had a two-score lead in the third quarter, and that gets erased. Now they get another high-powered offense coming into town. The Wolverines defense isn't as good, but with Persa injured again, they won't need as strong a defense as the Illini did. MICHIGAN
Boston College Eagles at #10 Clemson Tigers: Clemson is not used to being the team to beat in the ACC, but they should maintain that status against a struggling Eagles team. CLEMSON
Maryland Terrapins at #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets got past North Carolina and NC State, but Maryland can be tough. This one has upset potential, but I'll stick with Tech. GEORGIA TECH
Missouri Tigers at #13 Kansas State Wildcats: Missouri is in the midst of a rebuilding year, so Kansas State won't really be tested this week. KANSAS STATE
#25 Auburn Tigers at #14 Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas gets a real test. The Tigers are unbeaten in conference play, while Arkansas lost to Alabama. This game also has upset written all over it, but I like the home team. They played well in their loss to Alabama (much better than Florida did), while Auburn has not looked sharp. Auburn hasn't faced the toughest teams in the conference yet. The Tigers are young; they are learning quickly, but I don't think they've learned enough to stop Arkansas. ARKANSAS
East Carolina Pirates at #15 Houston Cougars: East Carolina's only win this season has been against a conference opponent, but they now they face their greatest challenge. The Pirates' defense is not working well this year, which opens the door to the Cougars' offense. HOUSTON
Kentucky Wildcats at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks need to bounce back from their close loss to Auburn, and throttling Kentucky seems a good way to do that. SOUTH CAROLINA
Iowa State Cyclones at #19 Baylor Bears: The Cyclones lost their first game last week, as did Baylor. This will be a redemption game for one of them. Baylor lost by only a single point, while the Cyclones were thrashed. The Cyclones will be hotter for a victory, but the Bears have Robert Griffin III. He may have thrown his first interception at the end of the game last week, but he's still the most accurate passer in FBS. BAYLOR
Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Speaking of redemption game, here's another one. Both teams lost in their conference opener. Nebraska's defense was demolished by the high-powered offense of Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes offense has sputtered all season long. They get back their best receiver and best runner this week, though, so that might make the difference for Ohio State. Nebraska is a good team, but they aren't used to the tough defenses in the Big Ten; the defenses aren't as tough in the Big XII. That will make the difference. OHIO STATE in a stunner
#21 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Aggies started the season strongly, but I think their time is over. They aren't consistent enough to keep pace with the offenses of the top teams in the Biog XII. The Aggies will lose their Top 25 ranking while the Raiders gain one with their first win against a strong team. TEXAS TECH
#24 Miami Hurricanes at #22 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hurricanes had an extra week to prepare, but the worst thing that could have happened to Miami was a Hokie loss last week. Now Tech is committed to keep pace with the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division. Miami's defense will control the pace early, but Tech will wear down the defense, allowing them to come from behind. VIRGINIA TECH
Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers: Minnesota was destroyed last week, while Purdue got a break. The Gophers showed strength earlier this season, but they've been gradually losing it. Purdue is rested and desperate for a win in their conference opener. I like their chances. PURDUE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers: The Illini are 5-0 for the first time since 1951, when Dick Butkus guided them to a national championship. Likely losses by Nebraska, Auburn, and the Miami-Virginia Tech loser will provide openings in the rankings that Illinois can grab with an impressive win. ILLINOIS
Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions: Iowa has fallen off the radar after lackluster non-conference performances, so they want a strong victory in their conference opener to recapture attention. Penn State always battles hard. Both teams have some quarterback issues, but Penn State has the better defense. PENN STATE
And the rest...
UConn Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Mountaineers redeem themselves with a big victory over the defending conference winner in their Big East opener. WEST VIRGINIA
Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Wake Forest has the better record, but they haven't played well, and have played mostly weak teams. The Seminoles have toughened themselves with games against Oklahoma and Clemson. Although those were losses, they kept themselves in those games, thanks to a stiff defense. That defense will swarm Wake Forest. FLORIDA STATE
Air Force Falcons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: A huge victory over Purdue might set up the Irish for a letdown, but they love to beat the Falcons. They have the tools to do it. NOTRE DAME
Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Rutgers leads the conference right now, thanks to a 3-1 record and win over Syracuse. However, they face the only other team to beat a Big East opponent this season. Pitt will make it two. PITT
Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers: With the losses to Florida and South Carolina last week, many national analysts are looking at Georgia to be a dark horse candidate to win the SEC East. I'd say that is EXTREMELY dark. The Bulldogs have not been impressive in their victories, while other teams in the division have impressed. One of them? Tennessee, who should win this match. TENNESSEE
NCAA Week 5 Top 25
We had fewer upsets this week, but many of them affected Top 25 and former Top 25 teams. Thursday evening began the upsets, as the Big East opener turned out to be a rout, but reversed as you might expect. Pitt demolished South Florida, and ripped through their vaulted defense. Saturday saw TCU suffer their second loss of the second, this time against the SMU Mustangs. TCU at least prevented the rout suffered by South Florida, as they scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. Texas A&M also suffered their second loss, as #22 Arkansas showed the Aggies what they are likely to experience when they join the SEC next year (provided the Big XII lets them go). Ohio State is definitely looking forward to getting their suspended players back, as the Spartans shut down their offense for a shocking Big Ten upset.
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [2] - The Tide smothered Florida to prove their dominance of the SEC
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3] - The Badgers pulverized Nebraska in the Cornhuskers' Big Ten debut
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) [6]
6. LSU Tigers (5-0) [9] - Most impressive win of the season so far for the Tigers
7. Texas Longhorns (4-0) [8]
8. Michigan Wolverines (5-0) [10] - HUGE shutout of the Gophers
9. Boise State Broncos (4-0) [12]
10. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [13] - The Tigers smothered Virginia Tech to become the "power" team of the ACC
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) [18]
12. Florida Gators (4-1) [5] - HUGE loss to the Tide
13. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [20] - Okay, I'll admit it. The Wildcats seem for real
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) [22] - Their dominance of A&M moves them up
15. Houston Cougars (5-0) [21]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [NR]
17. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [17]
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1) [11] - Tough loss for the Gamecocks
19. Baylor Bears (3-1) [19] - The Bears suffer their first loss, but it's only by a point
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) [15] - Do you suppose they now regret their move to the Big Ten?
21. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) [6] - Aggies woes even BEFORE entering main Big XII play, and the conference has more unbeaten teams right now than any other
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) [16]
23. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [14]
24. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) [24]
25. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [NR] - The rebuilt National Champions are proving to be tough and tenacious
Dropped: Ohio State Buckeyes [#23], Florida State Seminoles [#25]
On the Edge: Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1), Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2), Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1), Pittsburgh Panthers (3-2)
This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [1]
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [2] - The Tide smothered Florida to prove their dominance of the SEC
3. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [3] - The Badgers pulverized Nebraska in the Cornhuskers' Big Ten debut
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) [4]
5. Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) [6]
6. LSU Tigers (5-0) [9] - Most impressive win of the season so far for the Tigers
7. Texas Longhorns (4-0) [8]
8. Michigan Wolverines (5-0) [10] - HUGE shutout of the Gophers
9. Boise State Broncos (4-0) [12]
10. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [13] - The Tigers smothered Virginia Tech to become the "power" team of the ACC
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-0) [18]
12. Florida Gators (4-1) [5] - HUGE loss to the Tide
13. Kansas State Wildcats (4-0) [20] - Okay, I'll admit it. The Wildcats seem for real
14. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) [22] - Their dominance of A&M moves them up
15. Houston Cougars (5-0) [21]
16. Michigan State Spartans (4-1) [NR]
17. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [17]
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1) [11] - Tough loss for the Gamecocks
19. Baylor Bears (3-1) [19] - The Bears suffer their first loss, but it's only by a point
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) [15] - Do you suppose they now regret their move to the Big Ten?
21. Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) [6] - Aggies woes even BEFORE entering main Big XII play, and the conference has more unbeaten teams right now than any other
22. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) [16]
23. South Florida Bulls (4-1) [14]
24. Miami Hurricanes (3-1) [24]
25. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [NR] - The rebuilt National Champions are proving to be tough and tenacious
Dropped: Ohio State Buckeyes [#23], Florida State Seminoles [#25]
On the Edge: Illinois Fighting Illini (5-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1), Cincinnati Bearcats (4-1), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2), Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), Washington Huskies (4-1), SMU Mustangs (4-1), Pittsburgh Panthers (3-2)
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