It's a strange year. In a league that has shown great parity in recent years, there is a large gap between the Top Ten teams and the rest of the league. Even the divisions illustrate this. The NFC East has no teams with winning records and the NFC North has three. Three other divisions have just two, while the remaining three divisions have just ONE team with a winning record.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (7-1) [2] : They spotted Washington 21 points, then shut them down while they scored 35. The defense came alive in the second half, which may be an indication of things to come.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) [1] : A close win against a weak opponent doesn't help their ranking, but they remain the only unbeaten team in the league, and still have the stiffest defense.
3. New Orleans Saints (6-1) [4] : The offense rolled in a massacre of Buffalo. The defense showed some cracks, but they didn't break.
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-1) [3] : What an ugly victory! They needed a goal line stand to beat St Louis, and their offense made WAAY too many mistakes. They did not look like a Top Ten for 59 minutes.
5. San Francisco 49ers (6-2) [7] : Nice game, but they were playing the Jaguars, after all.
6. Green Bay Packers (5-2) [6] : The Packers have done nothing but improve since their tough opening games, and they find ways to win despite some key injuries.
7. Carolina Panthers (4-3) [8] : The Panthers have a winning record for the first time since Cam Newton's arrival, but it's the defense that's getting them there, and landing them in the Top Ten. The Panthers have one of the toughest defenses in the league.
8. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [5] : They slid in their bye week, showing how weak their hold on the Top Five was.
9. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) [13] : They had gone on a quiet tear, winning two games, before demolishing the Jets. The Bengals hold a two and a half game lead in the AFC North, the largest lead in any division.
10. New England Patriots (6-2) [10] : It wasn't a pretty win, but the Pats still find ways to win.
Divisional rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : The way Denver and KC keep playing, this division is likely to stay on top all season. They now have the largest gap between them and the second place division that they've had all season.
2. NFC West [2] : The Rams nearly won, and every one did win. Despite a poor performance by Seattle, they played that poorly in a divisional game, so it didn't negatively affect their position. This division also has the second best overall record (behind the AFC West), and only has one team with a losing record, the 3-5 Rams. By the way, that is the second-best record for a last place team, trailing Oakland's 3-4 by half a game.
3. NFC South [2] : Impressive wins by the Saints and Carolina, but Tampa Bay and Atlanta still look sick.
4. NFC North [3] : Green Bay rolled, but there were some positive things shown by Minnesota in that game. Detroit pulled off a last-second miracle surprise quarterback leap to remain one of the most exciting teams to watch, as anything can happen.
5. AFC North [6] : Cincy rolled, but the other teams weren't bad in losses. Pittsburgh nearly staged a comeback against Oakland, and Cleveland kept it close against KC.
6. AFC East [5] : This drop was fueled mostly by the Jets' massive meltdown. Cincy scored 49 points, but it easily could have been more. Buffalo scored a bit against New Orleans, but couldn't hold back that offense.
7. AFC South [7] : Only Jacksonville played this week. They're lucky they didn't drop to eighth place.
8. NFC East [8] : The Giants were the only winners in an offensively-challenged game. Dallas should have won -- where was the goal line defense? Washington took a first half lead, but their offense evaporated in the second half.
The picks were suspiciously easy this week. I'm always worried when they are that easy, like I'm overlooking something. Only two games seem likely for upsets, and I am picking one upset.
Thursday night
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins : Miami started the season strong, while Cincy floundered. Now their fates are the reverse -- Cincy having good (sometimes great) games while Miami struggles. Those struggles are likely to continue. The offense has been getting more attention, but the Bengals still have a strong defense; after all, that's the staple of the AFC North. That defense will frustrate Ryan Tannehill. BENGALS, 27-16
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers : Atlanta's offense is sputtering, and now they have to face one of the toughest defenses in the league. This game has all the earmarks of a disaster for the Falcons. PANTHERS, 23-13
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills : Thad Lewis has played well while EJ Manuel is out with injury, but the bigger concern is the health of C.J. Spiller. His absence makes the Bills offense one-dimensional -- not a good situation when you face the toughest defense in the league. CHIEFS, 27-16
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys : Josh Freeman and Adrian Peterson had some moments in the Green Bay game, but overall the Vikings still lack offensive punch. Since their defense sucks, they need that offensive punch in order to win. I don't see it coming together yet. COWBOYS, 30-20
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets : The Saints, however, do have that offensive punch. The Jets defense will tighten after their atrocious performance against the Bengals, but the Saints are still likely to light up the scoreboard. SAINTS, 35-17
San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins : The Chargers had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game. They have a better record and better margin of victory than Washington. So picking this game is easy, right? Well.... Here's my upset pick of the week. RGIII is looking good; I'm not sure that leg is showing any problems anymore. The offense moved well last week. Granted, they were playing against a weak Broncos defense, but they showed flair. The defense fell apart in the second half, but I think Washington will buckle down in this one. San Diego will engineer a comeback, but I suspect it will fall just short. REDSKINS, 24-23
Tennessee Titans at St Louis Rams : This will be another close game, but I have to favor the Titans on this one. Kellen Clemens has played well in Sam Bradford's absence, but he still hasn't quite clicked with the offense. The Rams were helped last week by five major errors by the Seattle offense; you can't count on that every week. Besides, the Rams defense stinks, while the Titans offense moves well with Jake Locker under center. Rams coach Jeff Fisher may think he knows this squad, after coaching them for 16 seasons, but this is a different team than the one he led. It'll be close, but I like the Titans to win this one. TITANS, 20-16
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns : In the entire history of the Ravens v Browns (or, as some still call it, Old Browns v New Browns), the Ravens have always won. It seems to be a historical fact cast in stone. Led by a staunch defense and potent ground attack, the Ravens have always controlled the clock and the pace of the game. Now enter 2013: The Ravens are defending Super Bowl Champs, but not playing like that. That vaulted defense lost key players in the off-season, and Ray Rice is not delivering on the ground as reliably as we've seen. The offense makes mistakes, and they have seemed out of rhythm. The Browns, after losing their first two games, shed Trent Richardson in a trade that shocked everyone. They then proceeded to win three consecutive games, including an upset of Cincinnati, which also shocked everyone. Although they have lost their last three to powerful opponents, they have played well in each of those. Now they get to host the struggling Ravens, who barely beat them 14-6 earlier this season. History says the Ravens will win, and coming off a bye the Ravens are in better shape. However, this game could go Cleveland's way. I'll pick Baltimore, just because they are usually strong after their bye, but watch out for the historic upset. RAVENS, 23-21
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders : After starting the season with amazing offensive performances, the game plan of Chip Kelly has fizzled. Opposing defenses have figured out how to stop it, and now the Eagles are struggling to score points. Matt Barkley could not run this offense, and Michael Vick now seems unsure of himself. Nick Foles seems ready to return, so the Eagles get a boost. However, tough defenses still frustrate this offense, and they don't come from behind well. The Raiders defense will give them fits early, and then the Eagles will force plays in order to try to come back. RAIDERS, 20-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots : No matter who else takes the field, so long as Tom Brady is under center, this offense finds ways to work. A strong defense has been helping them out this year, and that strong defense will make it tough for a Steelers team who offense has been unsteady. PATS, 21-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at Seattle Seahawks : You just know that the offense will bounce back from their self-destruction on Monday night. Fortunately, they get one of the most pathetic offenses to come to town, so this game will be a breeze even if the offense makes some mistakes. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans : Both teams come off a bye, so there is no advantage there. The difference will be the struggling Texans offense against a tough Colts defense. The Texans might suffer yet another pick-six, while Andrew Luck throws for over 300 yards against a weak Texans secondary. COLTS, 27-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers : I'd love to pick my Bears, but they play TERRIBLY on Monday Night Football. The offense is rolling, but the defense will allow the Pack too much. PACKERS, 30-20
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Sunday, October 27, 2013
NCAA 2013 Wek 10 picks
The upsets continued this week, and I don't just mean the losses to previously unbeaten Texas Tech and Missouri, both of which I had tagged as likely. I mean the real surprise upsets, like Minnesota clobbering Nebraska, Navy capsizing Pittsburgh, North Carolina crushing Boston College, and San Jose State toppling Wyoming in an offensive shootout. Duke became bowl eligible for the second consecutive year by defeating Virginia Tech. If they win again, or are chosen for a bowl with a 6-6 record, it would mark the first time in school history that Duke has played in consecutive bowl games.
Lots of top teams have bye weeks this week, but there are still some exciting games on the schedule.
Wed Oct 30
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers : Cincy should have the upper hand in this game. Memphis hasn't won a single American Athletic Conference game, and their only win this year was over Arkansas State. CINCINNATI by 20
Thurs Oct 31
Strap yourselves in, it's a busy double-header Halloween!
South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars : The Bulls lost every non-conference game this season, but they've improved since conference play started. Houston, however, is unbeaten in conference play and tied with UCF for the conference lead. The Cougars are a strong team who have mangled most of their opponents this season, and I see no reason that the Bulls shouldn't be next. HOUSTON by 17
Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green : Rice is tied for the lead in the West division of Conference USA, but North Texas is only a game back. This game could propel the Mean Green into title contention, if someone can help them by beating Tulane. North Texas has a strong team, but so does Rice. This will be a close game. Rice prefers to run the ball, and the Green have a tough rush defense. I find that defense often trumps offense, especially with the home crowd behind them, so I'm picking the Mean Green upset. NORTH TEXAS by three
#17 Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars : No upset here, as the Sun Devils should burn the Cougars. Both teams love to score, so there will be plenty of highlights, but the Sun Devils have a quicker strike and a stronger defense. ARIZONA STATE by 13
Fri Nov 1
USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers : The Beavers nearly came back against Stanford. They can be devastating at home, and often knock off a couple of conference opponents there that they would lose on the road. This is one such game. The Beavers are opportunistic, and the Trojans are a bit clumsy and error-prone this season. OREGON STATE by eight
Top 25
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers : This is almost like a bye week for the Buckeyes, who should easily roll over the worst team in the conference. OHIO STATE by 33
Tennessee Volunteers at #10 Missouri Tigers : Mizzou will be looking to demolish their next opponent after their close loss against South Carolina. You know they will protect any lead going into the fourth quarter. MISSOURI by 20
#11 Michigan Wolverines at #21 Michigan State Spartans : Connor Cook showed poise and leadership in the rout over Illinois; he definitely grew up after the Purdue game. Combine that with the strongest offense in the country, and I don't think that even an extra week to prepare will allow Michigan to win this game. MICHIGAN STATE in the upset by six
#13 Clemson Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers : The Cavs aren't much of a threat, so Clemson gets a chance to really roll. Statistically, it might be the offense's best game all season, as the defense was more in charge in their win over Georgia. CLEMSON by 24
#14 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes : Iowa is tough, but the Badgers have a grueling double-threat ground attack that wears down opposing defenses. Iowa might keep it close in the first half, but Wisconsin will pull away starting late in the third quarter. WISCONSIN by 13
UTEP Miners at #15 Texas A&M Aggies : A little non-conference breeze game for Johnny Manziel and the Aggies. Expect a 500+ yard passing performance and over fifty points scored by the Aggies. TEXAS A&M by 31
Colorado Buffaloes at #16 UCLA Bruins : UCLA has lost their last two games, and you know they don't want to lose a third! They will clobber the Buffaloes as Brent Hunley tries to climb back into Heisman contention. UCLA by 24
Mississippi State Bulldogs at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks : The Gamecocks won last week thanks to an amazing comeback engineered by Connor Shaw. With his successful return from injury, the Bulldogs have a bigger challenge to face, one I don't think they can overcome. SOUTH CAROLINA by 18
#20 Northern Illinois Huskies at UMass Minutemen : There is no question that the Huskies will win this game. The only question is how many different ways will QB Jordan Lynch find to score? NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 36
#23 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #22 Texas Tech Red Raiders : Whoa, this should be an exciting and offensively filled game! Both teams have strong offenses and lack punch on defense. This game could reach 100 points, but in the end I think Tech will win. They tend to win these offensive battles, it's strong opposing defenses that hurt Tech. TEXAS TECH by six
Nevada Wolf Pack at #24 Fresno State Bulldogs : Nevada is not the same threat they have been recently in the Mountain West. After the close call this week, Fresno State will establish an early lead and keep it. FRESNO STATE by 18
#25 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas is looking for their first SEC win of the season. Keep looking, guys! AUBURN by 24
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions : Both of these teams were blown out last week and have incentive to win this week. Illinois tends to play poorly on the road, but they also tend to follow a poor offensive showing with a better one. Penn State got banged up against Ohio State, and I think that may be all Illinois needs to capture their first Big Ten victory since 2010. ILLINOIS in an upset by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers : The Wildcats had a bye last week, and they needed it. Their team had been going down the tubes since Big Ten play started. I'd give the edge, except all of the heat Bo Pelini is catching for the loss will inspire him to devise a devastating game plan. NEBRASKA by four in a squeaker.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers : Indiana can play tough, but they can't finish games. The Gophers may trail at the half, but they will pour it on in the second half. MINNESOTA by 16
Other Games of Interest
Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators : This is an intriguing battle. Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and both need to heal. Georgia's offense is more banged up, and I don't know how many of their tools will return. At this point, it looks like Florida will have a slightly more healthy squad, with some key players back, so I'll pick them. However, if Georgia heals more than expected, they could roar back. FLORIDA by four
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish had their most impressive victory of the season last week, and expect that to continue. The normally potent ground game by Navy has slowed, which should allow the Irish the chance to overpower and outscore them. NOTRE DAME by 16
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns : Texas remains unbeaten in Big XII play, while Kansas is winless in conference play. Nope, no upset projected here. TEXAS by 32
East Carolina Pirates at Florida International Golden Panthers : The Panthers have not enjoyed their step up from Sun Belt play this season, struggling in the more powerful Conference USA. The Pirates defense struggled earlier in the season, but now they are knocking around opponents. EAST CAROLINA by 20
Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : A different Panthers team, similar result. While Pitt is doing better in their second year in the ACC, they know all about the difficulties of moving to a new conference. Tech's defense has also improved after a slow start, so Pitt will struggle to move the ball. GEORGIA TECH by 18
GAME OF THE WEEK : #8 Miami Hurricanes at #3 Florida State Seminoles : The final showdown of unbeaten teams we will have in the regular season, as the ACC is the ONLY conference with two unbeaten teams. Miami has barely won in a couple of games, while Florida State has rolled. The only chance that Miami has is to hold Florida State in the first half. The Seminoles love to score early and hold leads. Miami's defense is good, but not good enough to stop Jameis Wilson and the Seminoles powerful offense. The Seminoles will lead after the first quarter and never look back. FLORIDA STATE by 18
Lots of top teams have bye weeks this week, but there are still some exciting games on the schedule.
Wed Oct 30
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers : Cincy should have the upper hand in this game. Memphis hasn't won a single American Athletic Conference game, and their only win this year was over Arkansas State. CINCINNATI by 20
Thurs Oct 31
Strap yourselves in, it's a busy double-header Halloween!
South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars : The Bulls lost every non-conference game this season, but they've improved since conference play started. Houston, however, is unbeaten in conference play and tied with UCF for the conference lead. The Cougars are a strong team who have mangled most of their opponents this season, and I see no reason that the Bulls shouldn't be next. HOUSTON by 17
Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green : Rice is tied for the lead in the West division of Conference USA, but North Texas is only a game back. This game could propel the Mean Green into title contention, if someone can help them by beating Tulane. North Texas has a strong team, but so does Rice. This will be a close game. Rice prefers to run the ball, and the Green have a tough rush defense. I find that defense often trumps offense, especially with the home crowd behind them, so I'm picking the Mean Green upset. NORTH TEXAS by three
#17 Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars : No upset here, as the Sun Devils should burn the Cougars. Both teams love to score, so there will be plenty of highlights, but the Sun Devils have a quicker strike and a stronger defense. ARIZONA STATE by 13
Fri Nov 1
USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers : The Beavers nearly came back against Stanford. They can be devastating at home, and often knock off a couple of conference opponents there that they would lose on the road. This is one such game. The Beavers are opportunistic, and the Trojans are a bit clumsy and error-prone this season. OREGON STATE by eight
Top 25
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers : This is almost like a bye week for the Buckeyes, who should easily roll over the worst team in the conference. OHIO STATE by 33
Tennessee Volunteers at #10 Missouri Tigers : Mizzou will be looking to demolish their next opponent after their close loss against South Carolina. You know they will protect any lead going into the fourth quarter. MISSOURI by 20
#11 Michigan Wolverines at #21 Michigan State Spartans : Connor Cook showed poise and leadership in the rout over Illinois; he definitely grew up after the Purdue game. Combine that with the strongest offense in the country, and I don't think that even an extra week to prepare will allow Michigan to win this game. MICHIGAN STATE in the upset by six
#13 Clemson Tigers at Virginia Cavaliers : The Cavs aren't much of a threat, so Clemson gets a chance to really roll. Statistically, it might be the offense's best game all season, as the defense was more in charge in their win over Georgia. CLEMSON by 24
#14 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes : Iowa is tough, but the Badgers have a grueling double-threat ground attack that wears down opposing defenses. Iowa might keep it close in the first half, but Wisconsin will pull away starting late in the third quarter. WISCONSIN by 13
UTEP Miners at #15 Texas A&M Aggies : A little non-conference breeze game for Johnny Manziel and the Aggies. Expect a 500+ yard passing performance and over fifty points scored by the Aggies. TEXAS A&M by 31
Colorado Buffaloes at #16 UCLA Bruins : UCLA has lost their last two games, and you know they don't want to lose a third! They will clobber the Buffaloes as Brent Hunley tries to climb back into Heisman contention. UCLA by 24
Mississippi State Bulldogs at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks : The Gamecocks won last week thanks to an amazing comeback engineered by Connor Shaw. With his successful return from injury, the Bulldogs have a bigger challenge to face, one I don't think they can overcome. SOUTH CAROLINA by 18
#20 Northern Illinois Huskies at UMass Minutemen : There is no question that the Huskies will win this game. The only question is how many different ways will QB Jordan Lynch find to score? NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 36
#23 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #22 Texas Tech Red Raiders : Whoa, this should be an exciting and offensively filled game! Both teams have strong offenses and lack punch on defense. This game could reach 100 points, but in the end I think Tech will win. They tend to win these offensive battles, it's strong opposing defenses that hurt Tech. TEXAS TECH by six
Nevada Wolf Pack at #24 Fresno State Bulldogs : Nevada is not the same threat they have been recently in the Mountain West. After the close call this week, Fresno State will establish an early lead and keep it. FRESNO STATE by 18
#25 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas is looking for their first SEC win of the season. Keep looking, guys! AUBURN by 24
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions : Both of these teams were blown out last week and have incentive to win this week. Illinois tends to play poorly on the road, but they also tend to follow a poor offensive showing with a better one. Penn State got banged up against Ohio State, and I think that may be all Illinois needs to capture their first Big Ten victory since 2010. ILLINOIS in an upset by six
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers : The Wildcats had a bye last week, and they needed it. Their team had been going down the tubes since Big Ten play started. I'd give the edge, except all of the heat Bo Pelini is catching for the loss will inspire him to devise a devastating game plan. NEBRASKA by four in a squeaker.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers : Indiana can play tough, but they can't finish games. The Gophers may trail at the half, but they will pour it on in the second half. MINNESOTA by 16
Other Games of Interest
Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators : This is an intriguing battle. Both teams had a bye week to prepare, and both need to heal. Georgia's offense is more banged up, and I don't know how many of their tools will return. At this point, it looks like Florida will have a slightly more healthy squad, with some key players back, so I'll pick them. However, if Georgia heals more than expected, they could roar back. FLORIDA by four
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish had their most impressive victory of the season last week, and expect that to continue. The normally potent ground game by Navy has slowed, which should allow the Irish the chance to overpower and outscore them. NOTRE DAME by 16
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns : Texas remains unbeaten in Big XII play, while Kansas is winless in conference play. Nope, no upset projected here. TEXAS by 32
East Carolina Pirates at Florida International Golden Panthers : The Panthers have not enjoyed their step up from Sun Belt play this season, struggling in the more powerful Conference USA. The Pirates defense struggled earlier in the season, but now they are knocking around opponents. EAST CAROLINA by 20
Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : A different Panthers team, similar result. While Pitt is doing better in their second year in the ACC, they know all about the difficulties of moving to a new conference. Tech's defense has also improved after a slow start, so Pitt will struggle to move the ball. GEORGIA TECH by 18
GAME OF THE WEEK : #8 Miami Hurricanes at #3 Florida State Seminoles : The final showdown of unbeaten teams we will have in the regular season, as the ACC is the ONLY conference with two unbeaten teams. Miami has barely won in a couple of games, while Florida State has rolled. The only chance that Miami has is to hold Florida State in the first half. The Seminoles love to score early and hold leads. Miami's defense is good, but not good enough to stop Jameis Wilson and the Seminoles powerful offense. The Seminoles will lead after the first quarter and never look back. FLORIDA STATE by 18
NCAA Top 25 - Week 9
Upsets continued, and two more unbeaten teams fell. Two other barely escaped with their records intact (Miami and Fresno State). Ironically, Ohio State, who many national analysts felt was ripe for an upset, ended up with the second-highest margin of victory of all unbeaten teams, behind only Baylor.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1] : The Tide continue to roll, and they are finally starting strongly
2. Oregon Ducks (8-0) [2] : It took the fourth quarter for the Ducks to pull away from UCLA, but they have established themselves as the Pac-12 team to beat.
3. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [3] : They cruised after one of the most productive first quarters by any team all season.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) [4] : The Buckeyes may have quieted their critics with a colossal defeat of Penn State, handing the Nittany Lions their worst defest in over 115 years!
5. Baylor Bears (7-0) [5] : Another blowout victory, but the Bears enter their toughest stretch of their schedule. If they survive the next three weeks, they deserve the Big XII title (although Texas may have something to say about that to end the season).
6. Louisville Cardinals (7-1) [6] : Another brilliant performance by Teddy Bridgewater keeps the Cardinals in the American Athletic hunt.
7. Stanford Cardinal (7-1) [8] : A tremendous defensive performance in Corvallis keeps Stanford on Oregon's heels.
8. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) [7] : Were they distracted by the NCAA ruling this week? Who knows, but the 'Canes barely escaped Wake Forest.
9. LSU Tiges (7-2) [10]
10. Missouri Tigers (7-1) [9] : Missouri seemed to have South Carolina's number, but the Gamecocks scored 17 fourth quarter points to tie the game, and then a field goal attempt in the second overtime hit the post, knocking the Tigers from the ranks of the unbeaten.
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [13] : The Sooners handed Texas Tech their first loss of the season and start to redeem themselves for the shocking loss in the Red River Rivalry.
13. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [15] : The Terps fought hard, but the Tigers emerged victorious to continue their march to a New Years (or later) bowl.
14. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [14]
15. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [16] : Another 400+ yard performance for Johnny Manziel, but concerns about the Aggies defense are growing.
16. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [12] : The Bruins held tough with Oregon until the fourth quarter. They may have lost, but that was a better achievement than anyone has been able to muster against the Ducks this season.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) [17]
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) [19] : They pulled off one of the best fourth quarter comebacks of Coach Spurrier's career, but they were helped by an upright.
19. UCF Golden Knights (6-1) [20] : The kings of the American Athletic Conference keep rolling along.
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-0) [25] : Everyone talks about Johnny Football, but maybe they should be talking about Jordan Football, as Huskies QB Jordan Lynch scored five touchdowns in three different fashions: passing, rushing, and receiving. He IS the Northern Illinois offense, even more so than Manziel is A&M's.
21. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [24] : Okay, I guess we don't have doubts about their offense now.
22. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) [18] : The Sooners defense was too tough for them, and the Longhorns defense is even tougher. It looks like two probable losses for the Raiders.
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) [22] : They won big, but still dropped thanks to better play from Northern Illinois and Michigan State.
24. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0) [23] : They almost lost that game and fell from the unbeaten ranks. That still seems likely to happen.
25. Auburn Tigers (7-1) [27] : The Tigers blow past Florida Atlantic and land in the rankings for the first time all season.
Dropped out: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#21]
On the Edge: Ball State Cardinals (8-1), Houston Cougars (6-1), Oregon State Beavers (6-2), BYU Cougars (6-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3), East Carolina Pirates (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3)
With some division slots becoming clear (for instance, Missouri could have nearly clinched theirs had they beaten South Carolina), next week I will begin including the conference and division races at the end of this column.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1] : The Tide continue to roll, and they are finally starting strongly
2. Oregon Ducks (8-0) [2] : It took the fourth quarter for the Ducks to pull away from UCLA, but they have established themselves as the Pac-12 team to beat.
3. Florida State Seminoles (7-0) [3] : They cruised after one of the most productive first quarters by any team all season.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0) [4] : The Buckeyes may have quieted their critics with a colossal defeat of Penn State, handing the Nittany Lions their worst defest in over 115 years!
5. Baylor Bears (7-0) [5] : Another blowout victory, but the Bears enter their toughest stretch of their schedule. If they survive the next three weeks, they deserve the Big XII title (although Texas may have something to say about that to end the season).
6. Louisville Cardinals (7-1) [6] : Another brilliant performance by Teddy Bridgewater keeps the Cardinals in the American Athletic hunt.
7. Stanford Cardinal (7-1) [8] : A tremendous defensive performance in Corvallis keeps Stanford on Oregon's heels.
8. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) [7] : Were they distracted by the NCAA ruling this week? Who knows, but the 'Canes barely escaped Wake Forest.
9. LSU Tiges (7-2) [10]
10. Missouri Tigers (7-1) [9] : Missouri seemed to have South Carolina's number, but the Gamecocks scored 17 fourth quarter points to tie the game, and then a field goal attempt in the second overtime hit the post, knocking the Tigers from the ranks of the unbeaten.
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [13] : The Sooners handed Texas Tech their first loss of the season and start to redeem themselves for the shocking loss in the Red River Rivalry.
13. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [15] : The Terps fought hard, but the Tigers emerged victorious to continue their march to a New Years (or later) bowl.
14. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [14]
15. Texas A&M Aggies (6-2) [16] : Another 400+ yard performance for Johnny Manziel, but concerns about the Aggies defense are growing.
16. UCLA Bruins (5-2) [12] : The Bruins held tough with Oregon until the fourth quarter. They may have lost, but that was a better achievement than anyone has been able to muster against the Ducks this season.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) [17]
18. South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2) [19] : They pulled off one of the best fourth quarter comebacks of Coach Spurrier's career, but they were helped by an upright.
19. UCF Golden Knights (6-1) [20] : The kings of the American Athletic Conference keep rolling along.
20. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-0) [25] : Everyone talks about Johnny Football, but maybe they should be talking about Jordan Football, as Huskies QB Jordan Lynch scored five touchdowns in three different fashions: passing, rushing, and receiving. He IS the Northern Illinois offense, even more so than Manziel is A&M's.
21. Michigan State Spartans (7-1) [24] : Okay, I guess we don't have doubts about their offense now.
22. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1) [18] : The Sooners defense was too tough for them, and the Longhorns defense is even tougher. It looks like two probable losses for the Raiders.
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) [22] : They won big, but still dropped thanks to better play from Northern Illinois and Michigan State.
24. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-0) [23] : They almost lost that game and fell from the unbeaten ranks. That still seems likely to happen.
25. Auburn Tigers (7-1) [27] : The Tigers blow past Florida Atlantic and land in the rankings for the first time all season.
Dropped out: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#21]
On the Edge: Ball State Cardinals (8-1), Houston Cougars (6-1), Oregon State Beavers (6-2), BYU Cougars (6-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-3), East Carolina Pirates (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3)
With some division slots becoming clear (for instance, Missouri could have nearly clinched theirs had they beaten South Carolina), next week I will begin including the conference and division races at the end of this column.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 8 Power Rankings and picks
After three weeks of picking mostly visitors (and only one of those weeks did I consider myself successful), I know have a week where I picked mostly home teams. Strangely, I'm suspicious of this week. The picks were entirely too easy; few of them took any time to research, as the pick was obvious. The league isn't that one-sided anymore; it's not college football, where some teams are just not at the same level of others. Upsets may be happening this week.
Denver fell from the ranks of the unbeatens, leaving just Kansas City. Two teams remain winless, as the Giants won their first game. Tampa Bay is hoping to gain that on Thursday, but I doubt it. Jacksonville is so pathetic, it would take a contest against a pathetic team to gain that victory. Perhaps when they host the Texans on Dec 5th, depending upon the health of Matt Schaub.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team and the owners of the best defense in the league; that's deserving of the top spot.
2. Denver Broncos (6-1) [2] : They have lost, and their defense still looks a bit sloppy, but this team still has talent, and they still have Peyton Manning. Despite attempting to rattle him, Manning still had a great night, even against a defense who knew how he plays. Against anyone else, and the Broncos still excel.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-1) [4] : This team has all of the elements on both offense and defense to make a strong run for the Super Bowl. They are the best team in the NFC, and have been for most of this season. They let Arizona do a bit more this week than they should have, but the offense still dominated.
4. New Orleans Saints (5-1) [3] : They took a bye, so they didn't do anything this week. They have a chance to leap over Seattle when the Seahawks take their bye.
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [6] : They beat Denver, but this team is still too inconsistent to believe in yet. Their defense knew how Peyton Manning plays, and their Luck-led offense was more determined this week. Until they show that same level of determination each week, this team has holes.
6. Green Bay Packers (4-2) [9] : This team is definitely erasing the stigma of their two early losses. The loss of Jermichael Finley hurts their offense, though, so we're not sure how strong they will continue to be.
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) [7] : They're getting comfortable in the Number Seven slot. They had a fairly easy opponent this week, and now face Jacksonville. How will they do when tougher competition comes along?
8. Carolina Panthers (3-3) [17] : What a leap for the Panthers! A royal pasting of a decent Rams team, as well as some poor performances of the teams now below them, vaults the team into the Top Ten for the first time all season. Really, the Panthers haven't been bad this season, and most of their losses have been really close. Granted, their two previous victories were against weak teams (Minnesota and the Giants), but the Giants big Monday Night win helped.
9. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) [12] : Another team buoyed by a strong win this week, their defense shut down the fast-paced Eagles offense, preventing them from scoring a touchdown and keeping their ground game, which had been working so well for Philly, to a minimum.
10. New England Patriots (5-2) [5] : We won't call it an ugly, and Gronk played okay, but the Patriots looked a bit out of sorts this week. We do know they bounce back well.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, but this division is so much higher than the Number Two, I'm not sure they will fall from this perch all season. Denver and KC lead the league, and San Diego is good. Oakland needs to improve, but the division can still thrive with only three good teams.
2. NFC South [6] : Whoa, where did THIS meteoric rise come from? Strong performances from Atlanta and Carolina, that's where. Tampa still drags this division down, but the rest look good. Troubles with Number Three means this division could stay here for a while.
3. NFC North [3] : Green Bay is strong, but the loss of Jermichael Finley is yet to be felt. The Bears defense is collapsing, and the loss of Jay Cutler will hurt (although Josh McCown played surprisingly well in relief). Minnesota continues to struggle, so the success of this division may hinge on Detroit.
4. NFC West [2] : The Rams and Cardinals were both blasted this week, dropping the division. They should be able regain the Number Two spot in a couple of weeks if even one of those teams improves.
5. AFC East [4] : They beat up on each other this week, and the two lower teams beat the two upper teams, which shook up the division a bit.
6. AFC North [5] : Cincy won, and Pittsburgh gained their second victory. Unfortunately that victory came at the expense of the Ravens, knocking down the division. Cincy is now the only winning team in the division.
7. AFC South [7] : Indy is the only winning team, and the others are looking sickly. Tennessee, who has looked good at various times this season, seems to be falling down, and that leaves the Colts alone to hold up the division.
8. NFC East [8] : It's looking more and more likely that 9-7, or even 8-8, will win this division. Philly's great offense seems stagnant and Washington has no defense to speak of. The Giants finally won a game, but it was against an offensively-challenged (and QB-confused) Vikings team.
Thursday night
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : Carolina gets to celebrate their first week in the Top Ten by facing a winless team. All hail the scheduling gods! While Tampa is gearing up for a possible victory, I don't think they'll get it. Their offense still needs help. Mike Glennon is not the savior they thought when they released Josh Freeman (who, admittedly, did not help Minnesota on Monday Night), and they have no running game to speak of. The defense, normally a good part of the Bucs, has been too inconsistent. With a short week to prepare for this game, I think Carolina has the advantage. PANTHERS, 23-13
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints : Did the Saints really need a bye leading into this game? The Bills come off a win over Miami, but their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Saints. Since the Saints defense is working this year under Rob Ryan, this one won't be close. SAINTS, 30-16
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs : The Browns have to travel to KC to face the best defense in the league. That's definitely not a good situation for them. KC's offense has been up and down, and the Browns defense is good enough to hold it down, but this still won't be pretty for Cleveland. CHIEFS, 23-13
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions : This is one of the few games that took some thought. Detroit was the easy initial pick, but Dallas has been playing well recently. Romo and company rely heavily on momentum, and they have that right now. That could carry them over the Lions, but I'll just let the momentum get them close. LIONS, 24-23
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots : These are often offensive shootouts, but I don't see that from either team this year. Defense runs both teams this year, so don't expect scoreboard-lighting results. I think the Patriots have the better defense, and hence the better chance in this game. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles : The Giants won their first game last week, and Philly's offense was non-existent. Many sports analysts here in the New York area where I live are saying the Giants are ripe for a run, and see a second victory this week. It's possible, and I'm thinking that the Giants COULD pull it out, but I'm still picking the Eagles. Why? That offensive collapse last week may have been an aberration, and the Giants have not proven that they can prevent self-destruction. For crying out loud, they played a team whose only victory came away from American soil! And a team in more offensive disarray than the Giants themselves. EAGLES, 26-23
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars : It's the Jaguars. Nuff said. 49ERS, 27-10
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals : Hmm, this is an interesting game. This was the first one to require some real thought. The Cardinals can harrass teams, and the Falcons have collapsed when harrassed this season. On the other hand, it appears that Matty Ice might be coming back to form, and that makes him dangerous. We'll see if the Falcons can continue to improve. FALCONS, 27-23
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals : The Bengals have pulled off some amazing (and amazingly close) games this season against capable opponents. This looks to be another in that string. BENGALS, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders : Pittsburgh has won their last two games and seem to be on a roll. The Raiders had a bye week to prepare for this game. This was other game that took me time to determine how to pick. In the end, I went with the fact that Oakland tends to play well the week after their bye, but it would not surprise me if Pittsburgh continues that winning streak. RAIDERS, 19-16
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos : Denver's defense is weak, so the Redskins will get to score. However, as they proved against the Bears, the Redskins defense isn't much better, so Peyton and the Broncos will score too. They'll likely score more than Washington in this offensive extravaganza. BRONCOS, 41-35
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings : The Vikings play two night games in a row, but they may want to avoid them. They don't tend to do well at night, and they have to host the Pack. The only question is how well the Packers offense will play, with the loss of Jermichael Finley? Fortunately for the Pack, the Vikings offense is in chaos right now, so they'll still win. PACKERS, 23-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams : The Rams face this game without Sam Bradford, and facing one of the stiffest defenses. That makes things too difficult for them. SEAHAWKS, 27-13
Denver fell from the ranks of the unbeatens, leaving just Kansas City. Two teams remain winless, as the Giants won their first game. Tampa Bay is hoping to gain that on Thursday, but I doubt it. Jacksonville is so pathetic, it would take a contest against a pathetic team to gain that victory. Perhaps when they host the Texans on Dec 5th, depending upon the health of Matt Schaub.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0) [1] : The only unbeaten team and the owners of the best defense in the league; that's deserving of the top spot.
2. Denver Broncos (6-1) [2] : They have lost, and their defense still looks a bit sloppy, but this team still has talent, and they still have Peyton Manning. Despite attempting to rattle him, Manning still had a great night, even against a defense who knew how he plays. Against anyone else, and the Broncos still excel.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-1) [4] : This team has all of the elements on both offense and defense to make a strong run for the Super Bowl. They are the best team in the NFC, and have been for most of this season. They let Arizona do a bit more this week than they should have, but the offense still dominated.
4. New Orleans Saints (5-1) [3] : They took a bye, so they didn't do anything this week. They have a chance to leap over Seattle when the Seahawks take their bye.
5. Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [6] : They beat Denver, but this team is still too inconsistent to believe in yet. Their defense knew how Peyton Manning plays, and their Luck-led offense was more determined this week. Until they show that same level of determination each week, this team has holes.
6. Green Bay Packers (4-2) [9] : This team is definitely erasing the stigma of their two early losses. The loss of Jermichael Finley hurts their offense, though, so we're not sure how strong they will continue to be.
7. San Francisco 49ers (5-2) [7] : They're getting comfortable in the Number Seven slot. They had a fairly easy opponent this week, and now face Jacksonville. How will they do when tougher competition comes along?
8. Carolina Panthers (3-3) [17] : What a leap for the Panthers! A royal pasting of a decent Rams team, as well as some poor performances of the teams now below them, vaults the team into the Top Ten for the first time all season. Really, the Panthers haven't been bad this season, and most of their losses have been really close. Granted, their two previous victories were against weak teams (Minnesota and the Giants), but the Giants big Monday Night win helped.
9. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) [12] : Another team buoyed by a strong win this week, their defense shut down the fast-paced Eagles offense, preventing them from scoring a touchdown and keeping their ground game, which had been working so well for Philly, to a minimum.
10. New England Patriots (5-2) [5] : We won't call it an ugly, and Gronk played okay, but the Patriots looked a bit out of sorts this week. We do know they bounce back well.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, but this division is so much higher than the Number Two, I'm not sure they will fall from this perch all season. Denver and KC lead the league, and San Diego is good. Oakland needs to improve, but the division can still thrive with only three good teams.
2. NFC South [6] : Whoa, where did THIS meteoric rise come from? Strong performances from Atlanta and Carolina, that's where. Tampa still drags this division down, but the rest look good. Troubles with Number Three means this division could stay here for a while.
3. NFC North [3] : Green Bay is strong, but the loss of Jermichael Finley is yet to be felt. The Bears defense is collapsing, and the loss of Jay Cutler will hurt (although Josh McCown played surprisingly well in relief). Minnesota continues to struggle, so the success of this division may hinge on Detroit.
4. NFC West [2] : The Rams and Cardinals were both blasted this week, dropping the division. They should be able regain the Number Two spot in a couple of weeks if even one of those teams improves.
5. AFC East [4] : They beat up on each other this week, and the two lower teams beat the two upper teams, which shook up the division a bit.
6. AFC North [5] : Cincy won, and Pittsburgh gained their second victory. Unfortunately that victory came at the expense of the Ravens, knocking down the division. Cincy is now the only winning team in the division.
7. AFC South [7] : Indy is the only winning team, and the others are looking sickly. Tennessee, who has looked good at various times this season, seems to be falling down, and that leaves the Colts alone to hold up the division.
8. NFC East [8] : It's looking more and more likely that 9-7, or even 8-8, will win this division. Philly's great offense seems stagnant and Washington has no defense to speak of. The Giants finally won a game, but it was against an offensively-challenged (and QB-confused) Vikings team.
Thursday night
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs : Carolina gets to celebrate their first week in the Top Ten by facing a winless team. All hail the scheduling gods! While Tampa is gearing up for a possible victory, I don't think they'll get it. Their offense still needs help. Mike Glennon is not the savior they thought when they released Josh Freeman (who, admittedly, did not help Minnesota on Monday Night), and they have no running game to speak of. The defense, normally a good part of the Bucs, has been too inconsistent. With a short week to prepare for this game, I think Carolina has the advantage. PANTHERS, 23-13
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints : Did the Saints really need a bye leading into this game? The Bills come off a win over Miami, but their defense isn't strong enough to hold back the Saints. Since the Saints defense is working this year under Rob Ryan, this one won't be close. SAINTS, 30-16
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs : The Browns have to travel to KC to face the best defense in the league. That's definitely not a good situation for them. KC's offense has been up and down, and the Browns defense is good enough to hold it down, but this still won't be pretty for Cleveland. CHIEFS, 23-13
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions : This is one of the few games that took some thought. Detroit was the easy initial pick, but Dallas has been playing well recently. Romo and company rely heavily on momentum, and they have that right now. That could carry them over the Lions, but I'll just let the momentum get them close. LIONS, 24-23
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots : These are often offensive shootouts, but I don't see that from either team this year. Defense runs both teams this year, so don't expect scoreboard-lighting results. I think the Patriots have the better defense, and hence the better chance in this game. PATRIOTS, 23-20
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles : The Giants won their first game last week, and Philly's offense was non-existent. Many sports analysts here in the New York area where I live are saying the Giants are ripe for a run, and see a second victory this week. It's possible, and I'm thinking that the Giants COULD pull it out, but I'm still picking the Eagles. Why? That offensive collapse last week may have been an aberration, and the Giants have not proven that they can prevent self-destruction. For crying out loud, they played a team whose only victory came away from American soil! And a team in more offensive disarray than the Giants themselves. EAGLES, 26-23
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars : It's the Jaguars. Nuff said. 49ERS, 27-10
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals : Hmm, this is an interesting game. This was the first one to require some real thought. The Cardinals can harrass teams, and the Falcons have collapsed when harrassed this season. On the other hand, it appears that Matty Ice might be coming back to form, and that makes him dangerous. We'll see if the Falcons can continue to improve. FALCONS, 27-23
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals : The Bengals have pulled off some amazing (and amazingly close) games this season against capable opponents. This looks to be another in that string. BENGALS, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders : Pittsburgh has won their last two games and seem to be on a roll. The Raiders had a bye week to prepare for this game. This was other game that took me time to determine how to pick. In the end, I went with the fact that Oakland tends to play well the week after their bye, but it would not surprise me if Pittsburgh continues that winning streak. RAIDERS, 19-16
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos : Denver's defense is weak, so the Redskins will get to score. However, as they proved against the Bears, the Redskins defense isn't much better, so Peyton and the Broncos will score too. They'll likely score more than Washington in this offensive extravaganza. BRONCOS, 41-35
Sunday night
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings : The Vikings play two night games in a row, but they may want to avoid them. They don't tend to do well at night, and they have to host the Pack. The only question is how well the Packers offense will play, with the loss of Jermichael Finley? Fortunately for the Pack, the Vikings offense is in chaos right now, so they'll still win. PACKERS, 23-16
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams : The Rams face this game without Sam Bradford, and facing one of the stiffest defenses. That makes things too difficult for them. SEAHAWKS, 27-13
Monday, October 21, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 9 picks
Last week had its share of upsets, but that only the prelude to this week. Four more unbeaten teams fell, and several one-loss teams lost. Many Top 25 teams faced stiff challenges from non-ranked or lower-ranked teams. Many teams were lucky to survive.
Some of the upsets were not big surprises to me. I projected possible, and even likely, upsets to Louisville, UCLA, and Texas A&M. While I didn't publish it, I also picked the LSU game as a possible upset. I was as surprised as everyone, though, by Vandy's defeat of Georgia and Tennessee's upset of South Carolina. I had thought Arizona State might play Washington close, so wiping them out was a big surprise. I was also surprised by Florida State's manhandling of Clemson.
Some non-Top 25 upsets that surprised me: Temple over Army, Colorado State over Wyoming, and Wake Forest over Maryland. I'm beginning to think that 63-0 shocker was a turnaround, and Maryland will plummet like a stone now. That's their historical pattern: a great beginning to the season, a tough conference loss, and then a collapse. Let's see if history continues.
Tues Oct 22
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves : This may be the game to determine the Sun Belt champion. The winner will certainly take sole position of first place and essentially a two-game lead over the other (as they would hold tiebreaker status). Arkansas State is more used to these types of games, as they have led or contended for the Sun Belt lead most years. However, the Ragin Cajuns have played well this season, so I'm picking them. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by ten
Thurs Oct 24
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs : Kentucky has played well in many games, but they can't sustain it. Until they can close a game, I'm not going to believe they can win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 16
Fri Oct 25
Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars : These two are fairly evenly matched. This one could really go both ways. Given that, I'll give a slight nod to the effect of a home crowd. BYU by two
Top 25
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Vols are high after knocking off South Carolina, but now they have to face the tough Tide. Even if the Vols take an early lead, as Alabama has a tendency to start slowly, that lead will evaporate quickly. ALABAMA by 24
#12 UCLA Bruins at #2 Oregon Ducks : UCLA wants to bounce back from their loss to Stanford, but they switch from facing a stifling defense to facing an overpowering offense. Different game plan, but I think the result will be the same. OREGON by 23
NC State Wolfpack at #3 Florida State Seminoles : This is a great easy game to connect their demolition of Clemson and facing Miami. FLORIDA STATE by 34
Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : Penn State had an extra week to prepare for this, but it's hard to prepare for Ohio State. Even if you stop part of their game, they shift to another focus by the second half. As such, I don't think Penn State has the ability to adjust well enough to overcome Ohio State. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks : While I don't think Baylor will have another 64-point victory, this game will be a breeze. BAYLOR by lots
#6 Louisville Cardinals at South Florida Bulls : South Florida is the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde team this year. They lost every non-conference game, but has currently won every American Athletic Conference game they have played. I think that streak will end, though, as Louisville needs a good victory to redeem themselves after the loss to UCF. LOUISVILLE by 17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Miami Hurricanes : Wake isn't exactly an appropriate warm-up for Florida State, but Miami will make the most of it. MIAMI by 23
#8 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers : Oregon State is knocking on the Top 25, winning impressively since losing to Eastern Washington, but that streak may stop here. The Stanford defense can be stifling (just ask UCLA), and their offense is good, too. The Beavers have a habit of engineering one upset at home each season, though, so don't dismiss their ability to win. STANFORD by eight
Furman Paladins at #10 LSU Tigers : A late FBS v FCS game which LSU will use as a chance to reduce the sting of last week's loss. LSU by lots
#18 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma Sooners : The Red Raiders may be getting Oklahoma at the right time. The Sooners are still reeling from their loss to Texas; they did not play well this past week. If the Raiders can engineer some quick scoring drives, Oklahoma may be dead. Since they so rarely lose three games in a row, I will pick Oklahoma, but this game could end up going the other way. OKLAHOMA by three
#15 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins : Clemson needs a good game to rebound from the atrocious loss to Florida State, and most people would think they will get it here. Maryland is still a good team, though. Recent history shows that, once Maryland starts their conference slide, they do not recover, but that does not mean they can't play Clemson tough. Both teams were slaughtered by Florida State, so Maryland may believe that they have a chance to win. This will be a close game, which could go to the home team, but I'll give Clemson a chance at redemption. CLEMSON by six
Vanderbilt Commodores at #16 Texas A&M Aggies : Can Vandy to it two weeks in a row? I don't think so. Vandy can have these occassional fantastic games, but then most years they fall back to what is normal for them. The key here may be the health of Johnny Manziel. Twice now this year he has been hurt in a game (ankle earlier, shoulder this past week) and returned when it was clear that he was still hurting. The first time he was able to bring his team back, this time he didn't. However, if he keeps doing that he's going to hurt himself badly. Didn't he learn anything by watching RGIII in the NFL playoffs last year? If Manziel goes out, Vandy may have a chance. I don't think their defense is tough enough to knock him out, though. TEXAS A&M by 17
UConn Huskies at #20 UCF Golden Knights : The Golden Knights regain the Top 25 with their upset over Louisville and now they get a chance to enjoy it. UConn hasn't won a game all season, so UCF will just roll. UCF by 27
#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Nebraska should win this game, thanks to a bye week, but Minnesota will give them a hard time. Fortunately Nebraska knows that. Northwestern was seem as a threat, so Minnesota victory over them showed Nebraska that they can't slack off. That warning should be enough to prevent a letdown. NEBRASKA by 13
#22 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones : Iowa State has played well, but then can't sustain that in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma State should be able to win this game, but it might be closer than they would like. OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs : San Diego State has quietly accumulated an unbeaten record in the Mountain West. A win here by Fresno State gives them the inside track to win the West division. San Diego State may push them early, but Fresno State will end up winning the game. FRESNO STATE by 13
#24 Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini : I'm not sure if my love of my Alma Mater is affecting my judgement, but I think Michigan State is vulnerable here. Their offense could only muster 14 points against Purdue, the worst team in the conference. The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, so Illinois will struggle early, but I look at how they adjusted in the Wisconsin game. Illinois scored 32 points against a decent Badgers defense. If the Spartans offense cannot establish a large enough lead while the Illini struggle against the defense, Illinois might stage a great comeback. I'll pick the Spartans, but they should watch out. MICHIGAN STATE by six
Eastern Michigan Eagles at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies : The Eagles haven't won a MAC game, and I think that will continue. The Huskies are ripe for a loss at some point, though, as they exposed the fact that their quarterback IS their offense -- take him out, and the Huskies can't score. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 23
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes : Northwestern finds themselves in a strange place. They are a talented team who powerfully ran though their non-conference games, and have played well in their conference games, but have lost each of those. They need a win here. Iowa showed how tenacious they are, though. Their defense is slightly better than Northwestern, and defenses can often shift the momentum of a game. I think Iowa will win, but it'll be a close game that may depend upon who has the ball last and how that last drive goes. IOWA by three
Other Games of Interest
Houston Cougars at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Houston barely lost to BYU when their comeback fell short. They have incentive to have a colossal game this week, and Rutgers will give them that chance. HOUSTON by 23
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers : Virginia has played tough in a couple of games, but they can't close them. Georgia Tech is getting better each week, and I think that progression will continue here. GEORGIA TECH by 16
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Air Force Falcons : Let's face it, Air Force is atrocious this year! I called it in my preseason columns, but they're even worse than I thought. Notre Dame will roll. NOTRE DAME by 27
Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers : Wow, nice gift to the Tigers. They should have no problem here. With possible losses to lower-tier Top 25 teams, Auburn could leap into the rankings. AUBURN by 34
Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs : The cries for Mack Brown's job has covered up the fact that Texas is unbeaten in the Big XII. They had a bye week to prepare for this game, and TCU is not playing well right now, so this should be a fairly easy victory for the Longhorns. TEXAS by 20
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 South Carolina Gamecocks at #9 Missouri Tigers : Missouri has proven that they are a strong team. However, there are still doubters. They beat a banged-up Georgia team and beat Florida who was also missing some of their offensive starters. Now they face a South Carolina team coming off a shocking loss. If they win here, they solidify their status as the greatest threat to Alabama, who they won't meet until the SEC Championship Game. If the Gamecocks lose by too much, they could fall right out of the rankings. I think that's possible, as they seem a bit confused and off-kilter right now. MISSOURI by 18
Some of the upsets were not big surprises to me. I projected possible, and even likely, upsets to Louisville, UCLA, and Texas A&M. While I didn't publish it, I also picked the LSU game as a possible upset. I was as surprised as everyone, though, by Vandy's defeat of Georgia and Tennessee's upset of South Carolina. I had thought Arizona State might play Washington close, so wiping them out was a big surprise. I was also surprised by Florida State's manhandling of Clemson.
Some non-Top 25 upsets that surprised me: Temple over Army, Colorado State over Wyoming, and Wake Forest over Maryland. I'm beginning to think that 63-0 shocker was a turnaround, and Maryland will plummet like a stone now. That's their historical pattern: a great beginning to the season, a tough conference loss, and then a collapse. Let's see if history continues.
Tues Oct 22
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Arkansas State Red Wolves : This may be the game to determine the Sun Belt champion. The winner will certainly take sole position of first place and essentially a two-game lead over the other (as they would hold tiebreaker status). Arkansas State is more used to these types of games, as they have led or contended for the Sun Belt lead most years. However, the Ragin Cajuns have played well this season, so I'm picking them. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE by ten
Thurs Oct 24
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs : Kentucky has played well in many games, but they can't sustain it. Until they can close a game, I'm not going to believe they can win. MISSISSIPPI STATE by 16
Fri Oct 25
Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars : These two are fairly evenly matched. This one could really go both ways. Given that, I'll give a slight nod to the effect of a home crowd. BYU by two
Top 25
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Vols are high after knocking off South Carolina, but now they have to face the tough Tide. Even if the Vols take an early lead, as Alabama has a tendency to start slowly, that lead will evaporate quickly. ALABAMA by 24
#12 UCLA Bruins at #2 Oregon Ducks : UCLA wants to bounce back from their loss to Stanford, but they switch from facing a stifling defense to facing an overpowering offense. Different game plan, but I think the result will be the same. OREGON by 23
NC State Wolfpack at #3 Florida State Seminoles : This is a great easy game to connect their demolition of Clemson and facing Miami. FLORIDA STATE by 34
Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : Penn State had an extra week to prepare for this, but it's hard to prepare for Ohio State. Even if you stop part of their game, they shift to another focus by the second half. As such, I don't think Penn State has the ability to adjust well enough to overcome Ohio State. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks : While I don't think Baylor will have another 64-point victory, this game will be a breeze. BAYLOR by lots
#6 Louisville Cardinals at South Florida Bulls : South Florida is the ultimate Jekyll/Hyde team this year. They lost every non-conference game, but has currently won every American Athletic Conference game they have played. I think that streak will end, though, as Louisville needs a good victory to redeem themselves after the loss to UCF. LOUISVILLE by 17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Miami Hurricanes : Wake isn't exactly an appropriate warm-up for Florida State, but Miami will make the most of it. MIAMI by 23
#8 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers : Oregon State is knocking on the Top 25, winning impressively since losing to Eastern Washington, but that streak may stop here. The Stanford defense can be stifling (just ask UCLA), and their offense is good, too. The Beavers have a habit of engineering one upset at home each season, though, so don't dismiss their ability to win. STANFORD by eight
Furman Paladins at #10 LSU Tigers : A late FBS v FCS game which LSU will use as a chance to reduce the sting of last week's loss. LSU by lots
#18 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma Sooners : The Red Raiders may be getting Oklahoma at the right time. The Sooners are still reeling from their loss to Texas; they did not play well this past week. If the Raiders can engineer some quick scoring drives, Oklahoma may be dead. Since they so rarely lose three games in a row, I will pick Oklahoma, but this game could end up going the other way. OKLAHOMA by three
#15 Clemson Tigers at Maryland Terrapins : Clemson needs a good game to rebound from the atrocious loss to Florida State, and most people would think they will get it here. Maryland is still a good team, though. Recent history shows that, once Maryland starts their conference slide, they do not recover, but that does not mean they can't play Clemson tough. Both teams were slaughtered by Florida State, so Maryland may believe that they have a chance to win. This will be a close game, which could go to the home team, but I'll give Clemson a chance at redemption. CLEMSON by six
Vanderbilt Commodores at #16 Texas A&M Aggies : Can Vandy to it two weeks in a row? I don't think so. Vandy can have these occassional fantastic games, but then most years they fall back to what is normal for them. The key here may be the health of Johnny Manziel. Twice now this year he has been hurt in a game (ankle earlier, shoulder this past week) and returned when it was clear that he was still hurting. The first time he was able to bring his team back, this time he didn't. However, if he keeps doing that he's going to hurt himself badly. Didn't he learn anything by watching RGIII in the NFL playoffs last year? If Manziel goes out, Vandy may have a chance. I don't think their defense is tough enough to knock him out, though. TEXAS A&M by 17
UConn Huskies at #20 UCF Golden Knights : The Golden Knights regain the Top 25 with their upset over Louisville and now they get a chance to enjoy it. UConn hasn't won a game all season, so UCF will just roll. UCF by 27
#21 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Nebraska should win this game, thanks to a bye week, but Minnesota will give them a hard time. Fortunately Nebraska knows that. Northwestern was seem as a threat, so Minnesota victory over them showed Nebraska that they can't slack off. That warning should be enough to prevent a letdown. NEBRASKA by 13
#22 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones : Iowa State has played well, but then can't sustain that in the fourth quarter. Oklahoma State should be able to win this game, but it might be closer than they would like. OKLAHOMA STATE by 11
#23 Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs : San Diego State has quietly accumulated an unbeaten record in the Mountain West. A win here by Fresno State gives them the inside track to win the West division. San Diego State may push them early, but Fresno State will end up winning the game. FRESNO STATE by 13
#24 Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini : I'm not sure if my love of my Alma Mater is affecting my judgement, but I think Michigan State is vulnerable here. Their offense could only muster 14 points against Purdue, the worst team in the conference. The Spartans have the toughest defense in the conference, so Illinois will struggle early, but I look at how they adjusted in the Wisconsin game. Illinois scored 32 points against a decent Badgers defense. If the Spartans offense cannot establish a large enough lead while the Illini struggle against the defense, Illinois might stage a great comeback. I'll pick the Spartans, but they should watch out. MICHIGAN STATE by six
Eastern Michigan Eagles at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies : The Eagles haven't won a MAC game, and I think that will continue. The Huskies are ripe for a loss at some point, though, as they exposed the fact that their quarterback IS their offense -- take him out, and the Huskies can't score. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 23
Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes : Northwestern finds themselves in a strange place. They are a talented team who powerfully ran though their non-conference games, and have played well in their conference games, but have lost each of those. They need a win here. Iowa showed how tenacious they are, though. Their defense is slightly better than Northwestern, and defenses can often shift the momentum of a game. I think Iowa will win, but it'll be a close game that may depend upon who has the ball last and how that last drive goes. IOWA by three
Other Games of Interest
Houston Cougars at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Houston barely lost to BYU when their comeback fell short. They have incentive to have a colossal game this week, and Rutgers will give them that chance. HOUSTON by 23
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers : Virginia has played tough in a couple of games, but they can't close them. Georgia Tech is getting better each week, and I think that progression will continue here. GEORGIA TECH by 16
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Air Force Falcons : Let's face it, Air Force is atrocious this year! I called it in my preseason columns, but they're even worse than I thought. Notre Dame will roll. NOTRE DAME by 27
Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers : Wow, nice gift to the Tigers. They should have no problem here. With possible losses to lower-tier Top 25 teams, Auburn could leap into the rankings. AUBURN by 34
Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs : The cries for Mack Brown's job has covered up the fact that Texas is unbeaten in the Big XII. They had a bye week to prepare for this game, and TCU is not playing well right now, so this should be a fairly easy victory for the Longhorns. TEXAS by 20
GAME OF THE WEEK: #19 South Carolina Gamecocks at #9 Missouri Tigers : Missouri has proven that they are a strong team. However, there are still doubters. They beat a banged-up Georgia team and beat Florida who was also missing some of their offensive starters. Now they face a South Carolina team coming off a shocking loss. If they win here, they solidify their status as the greatest threat to Alabama, who they won't meet until the SEC Championship Game. If the Gamecocks lose by too much, they could fall right out of the rankings. I think that's possible, as they seem a bit confused and off-kilter right now. MISSOURI by 18
Sunday, October 20, 2013
NCAA Top 25 - Week 8
Last week may have been called "Upset Saturday", but it turned out to be merely a precursor to this week! Four more unbeaten teams fell, as did several one-loss teams. Many of the Top 25 teams lost to lower ranked or unranked teams, and others had to come from behind or hold off late rallies in order to win. Three unbeaten teams in the Top Ten lost, and the upper 4/5ths of the Top 25 had more shake-ups than usual at this time of year. We are down to ten unbeaten, seven of those in the Top Ten. We still have games scheduled where two teams currently unbeaten will play each other, so that number will continue to dwindle.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1] : In a period where many unbeatens lost or struggled, Alabama continues to blow away their opponents, this week a 52-point shut-out.
2. Oregon Ducks (7-0) [2] : Another impressive offensive performance, but the defense showed some cracks.
3. Florida State Seminoles (6-0) [3] : Their battle against Clemson wasn't even close! Both offense and defense were working strongly in this game. This team, more than Oregon, might be the greatest challenge to Alabama.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) [4] : Not a pretty win, but they extended the nation's longest winning streak and remained unbeaten, a feat other teans have not matched in the last couple of weeks.
5. Baylor Bears (6-0) [10] : Scoring a record-setting 71 points is worth noting, as is a 64-point margin of victory. Baylor looks ready to compete against the big boys.
6. Louisville Cardinals (6-1) [5] : They lose and only drop one place? A strange result of upset week. Teddy Bridgewater actually looked pretty good in this game, despite two interceptions and a fumble. The Cardinals defense couldn't stop UCF.
7. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) [9] : It wasn't a pretty win, but it was a win. An unbeaten held on to remain so -- quite a feat recently.
8. Stanford Cardinal (6-1) [12] : They responded to last week's upset to Utah by dismantling the UCLA Bruins.
9. Missouri Tigers (7-0) [16] : Impressive performance by the BACKUP quarterback! Maty Mauk proved that this offense is incredible, and that Missouri won't miss a beat when James Franklin leaves. After struggling through the SEC season last year, Missouri just gets better each week.
10. LSU Tigers (6-2) [8] : The Tigers nearly came back to win against Ole Miss. Don't count this team out, although two conference losses makes their conference title hopes almost disappear.
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [13] : Indiana gave them fits through three quarters, but the Wolverines offense accumulated the most yards in school history. The tact that they had to do that in order to win marks their defense as a sorry squad.
12. UCLA Bruins (5-1) [6] : Stanford demolished them, yet they still are the favorite to win the South division.
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [14] : It wasn't a huge win against Kansas, but they'll savor the victory after the punishment they took last week.
14. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [17] : They could practically score at will against the Illini. This offense is potent, but a good defense can slow them down.
15. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [7] : A mistake-filled game and sloppy defensive play led to their worst loss in two years.
16. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [11] : Another atrocious defensive performance for the Aggies. You would not expect Auburn to score over 40 points in a game (although Coach Malzahn did predict that it would take more than 40 points to beat A&M), but they did it with seeming ease.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) [NR] : They just crushed Washington and slowed the Huskies' offensive machine.
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-0) [20] : They had to come back in the fourth quarter against West Virginia, but they avoided the same fate of eight former unbeaten teams.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) [15] : South Carolina looked undisciplined in this game, an oddity among Steve Spurrier squads. Too many mistakes, both penalties and blown coverages, cost the Gamecocks this game. They need to get their heads into it.
20. UCF Golden Knights (5-1) [27] : After weeks of skulking below the ranks, the Golden Knights return to the Top 25 with an impressive offensive performance to drive past Louisvile.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [21]
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) [22] : Nice win over TCU
23. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-0) [23] : Fresno State becomes the only Bulldogs team in the Top 25, and a huge win over UNLV will help to keep them there.
24. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [24] : They shut out Purdue, but where was their own offense? They need more consistent play if they want to rise in the rankings.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-0) [25] : When your quarterback is your leading rusher, you have to worry about your offensive backfield.
Dropped out: Washington Huskies [#18], Georgia Bulldogs [#19]
On the Edge: Oregon State Beavers (6-1), Auburn Tigers (6-1), BYU Cougars (5-2), Boise State Broncos (5-2), Houston Cougars (5-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-3), East Carolina Pirates (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1] : In a period where many unbeatens lost or struggled, Alabama continues to blow away their opponents, this week a 52-point shut-out.
2. Oregon Ducks (7-0) [2] : Another impressive offensive performance, but the defense showed some cracks.
3. Florida State Seminoles (6-0) [3] : Their battle against Clemson wasn't even close! Both offense and defense were working strongly in this game. This team, more than Oregon, might be the greatest challenge to Alabama.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) [4] : Not a pretty win, but they extended the nation's longest winning streak and remained unbeaten, a feat other teans have not matched in the last couple of weeks.
5. Baylor Bears (6-0) [10] : Scoring a record-setting 71 points is worth noting, as is a 64-point margin of victory. Baylor looks ready to compete against the big boys.
6. Louisville Cardinals (6-1) [5] : They lose and only drop one place? A strange result of upset week. Teddy Bridgewater actually looked pretty good in this game, despite two interceptions and a fumble. The Cardinals defense couldn't stop UCF.
7. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) [9] : It wasn't a pretty win, but it was a win. An unbeaten held on to remain so -- quite a feat recently.
8. Stanford Cardinal (6-1) [12] : They responded to last week's upset to Utah by dismantling the UCLA Bruins.
9. Missouri Tigers (7-0) [16] : Impressive performance by the BACKUP quarterback! Maty Mauk proved that this offense is incredible, and that Missouri won't miss a beat when James Franklin leaves. After struggling through the SEC season last year, Missouri just gets better each week.
10. LSU Tigers (6-2) [8] : The Tigers nearly came back to win against Ole Miss. Don't count this team out, although two conference losses makes their conference title hopes almost disappear.
11. Michigan Wolverines (6-1) [13] : Indiana gave them fits through three quarters, but the Wolverines offense accumulated the most yards in school history. The tact that they had to do that in order to win marks their defense as a sorry squad.
12. UCLA Bruins (5-1) [6] : Stanford demolished them, yet they still are the favorite to win the South division.
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [14] : It wasn't a huge win against Kansas, but they'll savor the victory after the punishment they took last week.
14. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2) [17] : They could practically score at will against the Illini. This offense is potent, but a good defense can slow them down.
15. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [7] : A mistake-filled game and sloppy defensive play led to their worst loss in two years.
16. Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) [11] : Another atrocious defensive performance for the Aggies. You would not expect Auburn to score over 40 points in a game (although Coach Malzahn did predict that it would take more than 40 points to beat A&M), but they did it with seeming ease.
17. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-2) [NR] : They just crushed Washington and slowed the Huskies' offensive machine.
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-0) [20] : They had to come back in the fourth quarter against West Virginia, but they avoided the same fate of eight former unbeaten teams.
19. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) [15] : South Carolina looked undisciplined in this game, an oddity among Steve Spurrier squads. Too many mistakes, both penalties and blown coverages, cost the Gamecocks this game. They need to get their heads into it.
20. UCF Golden Knights (5-1) [27] : After weeks of skulking below the ranks, the Golden Knights return to the Top 25 with an impressive offensive performance to drive past Louisvile.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [21]
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) [22] : Nice win over TCU
23. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-0) [23] : Fresno State becomes the only Bulldogs team in the Top 25, and a huge win over UNLV will help to keep them there.
24. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [24] : They shut out Purdue, but where was their own offense? They need more consistent play if they want to rise in the rankings.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-0) [25] : When your quarterback is your leading rusher, you have to worry about your offensive backfield.
Dropped out: Washington Huskies [#18], Georgia Bulldogs [#19]
On the Edge: Oregon State Beavers (6-1), Auburn Tigers (6-1), BYU Cougars (5-2), Boise State Broncos (5-2), Houston Cougars (5-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-3), East Carolina Pirates (5-2), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3)
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 7 Power Rankings and picks
I got a bit more conservative on picking visiting teams this week, and they dominate the early Sunday games. Then it reverses 180 degrees and all home teams win after that. Strange week. The Saints lost their first game and the Steelers won their first, leaving only two unbeaten teams and three winless teams. The Giants and Bucs have chances to win their first game, as they both face very weak opponents. The Broncos face a challenge in Indianapolis. It could be a very interesting weekend.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) [2] : I don't think anyone expected this from the Chiefs, not even me! While I expected them to reverse last year's collapse, and compete for a playoff spot, I would not have predicted they would spend at least a week at the top spot. While the offense is working, it is their defense that leads the league and has the Chiefs resting comfortable on the top. With the Broncos facing a challenge this week, the Chiefs could stay here.
2. Denver Broncos (6-0) [3] : The Jags scored 19 points against them. Clearly there is still work needed on their defense, which opens the door for a Colts upset this weekend. They are setting all sorts of offensive records, but their defense has to improve.
3. New Orleans Saints (5-1) [1] : The Saints pulled off a comeback and should have won, but then their defense allowed Tom Brady to move down the field unimpeded. Once again, the Saints defense proves their undoing, and this time it cost them a victory.
4. Seattle Seahawks (5-1) [5] : Seattle maintained breathing room against Tennessee, and showed that their defense still has what it takes.
5. New England Patriots (5-1) [6] : Rob Gronkowski didn't play, but the offense still showed up. The defense played well, too, showing that the Pats are still dangerous. Brady seems to be getting more comfortable with his new receivers, which should be cause for concern among their next opponents.
6. Indianapolis Colts (4-2) [4] : Where was the offense in San Diego? The Colts couldn't move the ball. Their defense did okay against San Diego, but the offense needs to bounce back. Somehow I thin they will.
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-2) [7] : The 49ers offense played well, but the defense allowed Arizona a little more yardage than they should have. It was still a pretty win.
8. Detroit Lions (4-2) [11] : The Browns winning streak was ground to a halt by a charging pride of Lions. Green Bay still looks strongest in the NFC North, but Detroit is looking good.
9. Green Bay Packers (3-2) [8] : And here are those Packers. They were able to come back from behind to beat the Ravens, but it wasn't a pretty game. The run defense needs to get tougher, and the Pack lost some key players to injury during this game.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) [13] : The Bengals took over sole first place in the AFC North with a close overtime victory over the Bills. The Bengals have been looking good the past couple of weeks, but this game wasn't a really impressive performance.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : Oakland is inconsistent, and so is San Diego. The Chargers won this week, but can they be counted on to continue that? If Denver falters, though, we may see a new top division.
2. NFC West [3] : The West is rising! The Rams had an impressive win against struggling Houston, the Seahawks and 49ers are strong teams, and even Arizona has an even record. This division was thought to be the best before the season began, and they are starting to live up to that.
3. NFC North [2] : Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago all won, but the Bears did not dominate the pathetic Giants. The Vikings suffered the worst loss of the weekend, which pulled down this division.
4. AFC East [4] : The Patriots are pulling away as both the Jets and Bills lost. They held position, but the gap beneath them has nearly dwindled to nothing.
5. AFC North [5] : Pittsburgh had their first win, but the other teams did not do well.
6. NFC South [5] : Carolina had an impressive win, but the Saints remain the only reliable team in this division.
7. AFC South [7] : The Texans continue to fall, and Indy looked pathetic against San Diego. With Jacksonville trailing the entire league, this division looked scraggly this week.
8. NFC East [8] : No team has a winning record and only Dallas has a positive point differential. This division will likely trail the league all season.
Thursday night game
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals : Larry Fitzgerald had a good game against the 49ers secondary, but Seattle is stauncher. This won't be as good a game for Arizona, while Seattle will have some success. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins : The Dolphins come off a bye, but I don't know if they needed an extra week. With Thad Lewis hobbling, I think the Bills are the ones who could use the extra week. Miami should clean up here. DOLPHINS, 27-17
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins The Bears defense hasn't been as fierce in the past two weeks, but I see a chance here. RGIII is still hobbling, and a decent Bears pass rush could cause some turnovers. On the defensive end, the Redskins are okay, but Dallas knocked them around pretty good. They may not have the strength to go against the Bears. BEARS, 30-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions : Both of these teams have looked hot recently, but the Bengals faltered slightly last week. This could be a close game, but I like the Lions chances to prevail. LIONS, 26-21
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles : Nick Foles is taking snaps with the first string, so it looks like he'll be starting again. He played very well, but Tampa is not strong this season. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have a good offense. The defense needs some work, so the Eagles will score, but the problem is the fact that Dallas will, too. COWBOYS, 30-26
New England Patriots at New York Jets : Pittsburgh held the Jets to two field goals, and the Patriots defense is even better. I think the Jets will be inspired to score more, as they always fight the Patriots hard, but they still won't win. PATS, 24-16
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars : Nice easy win for the Chargers. CHARGERS, 30-16
St Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers : Both of these teams had stellar victories last week; who gets to follow it up? I like Carolina's play, and their defense is stifling. PANTHERS, 21-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons had an extra week to lament how they lost the Jets game. Tampa is hoping their defense might get them their first victory, but I think the Falcons are too strong. The Bucs might stall the offense to give them a chance, especially if they can win the turnover battle. FALCONS, 27-23
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers may have won their first game last week, but I'm not sure they're quite back yet. The Ravens are a bit beat up, though, so this game may be close. RAVENS, 23-16
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers : Cleveland's winning streak was shattered by the Lions, and now another NFC North team will make that streak a distant memory. PACKERS, 27-17
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs : With the decline of the Texans, this game should be a breeze for the Chiefs. The strength of KC's defense will extend Matt Schaub's streak of games with a pick-6, too. CHIEFS, 30-16
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans : The Titans can be a tricky team. Seattle handled them, but that was in Seattle. The Titans at home will have crowd support, and they are getting further support from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has played well in relief of the injured Jake Locker. However, I think the 49ers will keep pace and then win late in the fourth. 49ERS, 23-21
Sunday night game
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts As I've already mentioned, this could be a letdown game for the Broncos. Their defense has shown themselves to be vulnerable these past two weeks, and the Colts could definitely exploit that. The Colts know how Peyton Manning plays, so they could devise a defensive scheme to bother him. However, I think Peyton will have some incentive to win this game, and a determined Peyton can be an unpredictable Peyton. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants : After a powerful win in London, the Vikings return and lay an egg. Neither team is doing well. The Giants showed some flashes of their old selves against the Bears, and I think that was a precursor to this game. Neither offense is stellar, but I think the Giants will pull out their first win of the season. GIANTS, 17-13
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) [2] : I don't think anyone expected this from the Chiefs, not even me! While I expected them to reverse last year's collapse, and compete for a playoff spot, I would not have predicted they would spend at least a week at the top spot. While the offense is working, it is their defense that leads the league and has the Chiefs resting comfortable on the top. With the Broncos facing a challenge this week, the Chiefs could stay here.
2. Denver Broncos (6-0) [3] : The Jags scored 19 points against them. Clearly there is still work needed on their defense, which opens the door for a Colts upset this weekend. They are setting all sorts of offensive records, but their defense has to improve.
3. New Orleans Saints (5-1) [1] : The Saints pulled off a comeback and should have won, but then their defense allowed Tom Brady to move down the field unimpeded. Once again, the Saints defense proves their undoing, and this time it cost them a victory.
4. Seattle Seahawks (5-1) [5] : Seattle maintained breathing room against Tennessee, and showed that their defense still has what it takes.
5. New England Patriots (5-1) [6] : Rob Gronkowski didn't play, but the offense still showed up. The defense played well, too, showing that the Pats are still dangerous. Brady seems to be getting more comfortable with his new receivers, which should be cause for concern among their next opponents.
6. Indianapolis Colts (4-2) [4] : Where was the offense in San Diego? The Colts couldn't move the ball. Their defense did okay against San Diego, but the offense needs to bounce back. Somehow I thin they will.
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-2) [7] : The 49ers offense played well, but the defense allowed Arizona a little more yardage than they should have. It was still a pretty win.
8. Detroit Lions (4-2) [11] : The Browns winning streak was ground to a halt by a charging pride of Lions. Green Bay still looks strongest in the NFC North, but Detroit is looking good.
9. Green Bay Packers (3-2) [8] : And here are those Packers. They were able to come back from behind to beat the Ravens, but it wasn't a pretty game. The run defense needs to get tougher, and the Pack lost some key players to injury during this game.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) [13] : The Bengals took over sole first place in the AFC North with a close overtime victory over the Bills. The Bengals have been looking good the past couple of weeks, but this game wasn't a really impressive performance.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : Oakland is inconsistent, and so is San Diego. The Chargers won this week, but can they be counted on to continue that? If Denver falters, though, we may see a new top division.
2. NFC West [3] : The West is rising! The Rams had an impressive win against struggling Houston, the Seahawks and 49ers are strong teams, and even Arizona has an even record. This division was thought to be the best before the season began, and they are starting to live up to that.
3. NFC North [2] : Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago all won, but the Bears did not dominate the pathetic Giants. The Vikings suffered the worst loss of the weekend, which pulled down this division.
4. AFC East [4] : The Patriots are pulling away as both the Jets and Bills lost. They held position, but the gap beneath them has nearly dwindled to nothing.
5. AFC North [5] : Pittsburgh had their first win, but the other teams did not do well.
6. NFC South [5] : Carolina had an impressive win, but the Saints remain the only reliable team in this division.
7. AFC South [7] : The Texans continue to fall, and Indy looked pathetic against San Diego. With Jacksonville trailing the entire league, this division looked scraggly this week.
8. NFC East [8] : No team has a winning record and only Dallas has a positive point differential. This division will likely trail the league all season.
Thursday night game
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals : Larry Fitzgerald had a good game against the 49ers secondary, but Seattle is stauncher. This won't be as good a game for Arizona, while Seattle will have some success. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins : The Dolphins come off a bye, but I don't know if they needed an extra week. With Thad Lewis hobbling, I think the Bills are the ones who could use the extra week. Miami should clean up here. DOLPHINS, 27-17
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins The Bears defense hasn't been as fierce in the past two weeks, but I see a chance here. RGIII is still hobbling, and a decent Bears pass rush could cause some turnovers. On the defensive end, the Redskins are okay, but Dallas knocked them around pretty good. They may not have the strength to go against the Bears. BEARS, 30-20
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions : Both of these teams have looked hot recently, but the Bengals faltered slightly last week. This could be a close game, but I like the Lions chances to prevail. LIONS, 26-21
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles : Nick Foles is taking snaps with the first string, so it looks like he'll be starting again. He played very well, but Tampa is not strong this season. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have a good offense. The defense needs some work, so the Eagles will score, but the problem is the fact that Dallas will, too. COWBOYS, 30-26
New England Patriots at New York Jets : Pittsburgh held the Jets to two field goals, and the Patriots defense is even better. I think the Jets will be inspired to score more, as they always fight the Patriots hard, but they still won't win. PATS, 24-16
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars : Nice easy win for the Chargers. CHARGERS, 30-16
St Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers : Both of these teams had stellar victories last week; who gets to follow it up? I like Carolina's play, and their defense is stifling. PANTHERS, 21-13
Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons had an extra week to lament how they lost the Jets game. Tampa is hoping their defense might get them their first victory, but I think the Falcons are too strong. The Bucs might stall the offense to give them a chance, especially if they can win the turnover battle. FALCONS, 27-23
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers : The Steelers may have won their first game last week, but I'm not sure they're quite back yet. The Ravens are a bit beat up, though, so this game may be close. RAVENS, 23-16
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers : Cleveland's winning streak was shattered by the Lions, and now another NFC North team will make that streak a distant memory. PACKERS, 27-17
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs : With the decline of the Texans, this game should be a breeze for the Chiefs. The strength of KC's defense will extend Matt Schaub's streak of games with a pick-6, too. CHIEFS, 30-16
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans : The Titans can be a tricky team. Seattle handled them, but that was in Seattle. The Titans at home will have crowd support, and they are getting further support from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has played well in relief of the injured Jake Locker. However, I think the 49ers will keep pace and then win late in the fourth. 49ERS, 23-21
Sunday night game
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts As I've already mentioned, this could be a letdown game for the Broncos. Their defense has shown themselves to be vulnerable these past two weeks, and the Colts could definitely exploit that. The Colts know how Peyton Manning plays, so they could devise a defensive scheme to bother him. However, I think Peyton will have some incentive to win this game, and a determined Peyton can be an unpredictable Peyton. BRONCOS, 30-26
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants : After a powerful win in London, the Vikings return and lay an egg. Neither team is doing well. The Giants showed some flashes of their old selves against the Bears, and I think that was a precursor to this game. Neither offense is stellar, but I think the Giants will pull out their first win of the season. GIANTS, 17-13
Sunday, October 13, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 8 picks
As I stated in my Top 25 column, it was a tough week to be a Top 25 team, especially unbeaten. Three formerly unbeaten teams lost: Stanford, Michigan in overtime, and Oklahoma in a Red River massacre. Others barely held on to their unbeaten status: Texas Tech against Iowa State, Houston over Memphis, Clemson over Boston College, Baylor over Kansas State, and Northern Illinois over Akron.
We are left with 14 unbeaten teams and 15 one-loss teams. We have reached the time of the season when rivalries games and conference match-ups cost many teams their status. Who will fall this week? I haven't picked many upsets, so I'm not expecting too many, but I'll identify some potential upsets.
Tues Oct 15
We're reached the point of the season when Tues games start getting thrown onto the schedule. It used to be a Big East trick, but with the dissolution of that conference, the Sun Belt has taken over.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : For those of you who do not track the Sun Belt, these are two of the top teams in the conference (Arkansas State being the other). The Ragin Cajuns are unbeaten in the conference, but I don't see that lasting past this game. Their rushing game is good, but the Hilltoppers have a pretty stout line. The Ragin Cajuns don't have a strong passing attack, so a one-sided offense will be easier to defend. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
Thurs Oct 17
#9 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels : Miami looks to remain unbeaten against a struggling Tar Heels team. It shouldn't be that hard. North Carolina's lone victory this season has been against Middle Tennessee, and they lost to East Carolina by over 20 points. Look for a larger margin in this game. MIAMI by 30
Fri Oct 18
UCF Golden Knights at #5 Louisville Cardinals : UCF is a decent team, and they had an extra week to prepare for this game, but Teddy Bridgewater is a tough guy to defend. If he doesn't beat himself, this will be a long game for the Knights. LOUISVILLE by 21
Top 25
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Razorbacks thought this might be a good year for them, until conference play started. They are yet to beat an SEC opponent, and I don't foresee that streak ending with this game. ALABAMA by lots
Washington State Cougars at #2 Oregon Ducks : Their "big brother" (as Hope Solo refers to Washington) couldn't keep pace with Oregon, so what hope do the Cougars? Slim to none. OREGON by 34
#3 Florida State Seminoles at #7 Clemson Tigers : I considered making this my Game of the Week, but instead picked a long-standing rivalry whose teams need a victory. This is the most highly-anticipated ACC game this season, and many consider it to be the REAL ACC Championship (Clemson and Florida State are in the same division, so they could not meet in the title game). Certainly the winner of this game has the inside track to win it all, and possibly go unbeaten. Clemson started the season hot, but QB Tahj Boyd has shown that a strong pass rush can rattle him. Tahj, say hello to the Seminoles pass rush. Florida State QB Jameis Winston has been posting some insane numbers himself, but the Seminoles strength is their defense, currently ranked third in the country, just like the team themselves. Since Clemson is home, they might pull off the upset, but I'm picking that strong Seminole defense to come through. FLORIDA STATE by eight
Iowa Hawkeyes at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : The Buckeyes had a bye week last week to get themselves organized and straighten out some of the defensive kinks. That will just make them stronger. OHIO STATE by 21
#6 UCLA Bruins at #12 Stanford Cardinal : This is my first upset alert, although Clemson qualifies. Stanford lost last week, and they don't want to lose two in a row. However, I'm not sure Stanford coach David Shaw can stem the bleeding. After setting high QB marks early in the season, Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has struggled in the past two games. If he can't reverse that trend, UCLA should win easily. The pride of the Cardinal has been its defense, who couldn't stop Utah last week. I think the defense will shape up this week, which will make it harder for UCLA to win, and possibly signal the upset alert. UCLA by six
#8 LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels : Okay, Ole Miss put up great numbers against Texas A&M. You have to remember that A&M is offensively-focussed; defense isn't their forte. LSU is a staunch defense, one that will frustrate QB Bo Wallace and the Ole Miss offensive line. Zach Mettenberger had a slow game last week, so he's inching for a chance to shine. He'll get it. LSU by 17
Iowa State Cyclones at #10 Baylor Bears : Iowa State almost beat one offensive powerhouse in Texas Tech. Can they actually do it to Baylor? Nah. Baylor QB Bryce Petty has quietly surpassed Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater for the highest QB rating in the country. Baylor has more weapons for the Cyclones to stop, and their defense isn't that deep. BAYLOR by 32
Auburn Tigers at #11 Texas A&M Aggies : Auburn has shown some muscle, and they've had an extra week to check out footage from Alabama and Ole Miss about how to beat the Aggies. The problem? Both of those teams have a better offense than Auburn, and you can't think of beating A&M without a dynamic offense. TEXAS A&M by 20
Indiana Hoosiers at #13 Michigan Wolverines : The Wolverines will bounce back, although Indiana has shown themselves to be a tough opponent. Still, I don't think the Hoosiers have a way to counter QB Devin Gardner, who is fast, making quick adjustments and running out of danger. MICHIGAN by eleven
#14 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks : Oklahoma needs a strong victory to redeem themselves for the shocking loss to Texas. Pity Kansas, this is precisely the wrong time to face a determined Sooners squad. OKLAHOMA by 20
#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers : Clowney seems healthy, playing in nearly all of the defensive snaps last week. That gives the Gamecocks defense the power they needed, so they are prepared to surge through the rest of the SEC season. SOUTH CAROLINA by 18
Florida Gators at #16 Missouri Tigers : This one has upset potential written on it, as freshman Maty Mauk must replace injured James Franklin. Mauk did okay in relief last week, but he was simply nursing a lead. The best offensive play while Mauk was on the field was conducted by Bud Sasser, who threw a touchdown pass to L'Damien Washington. Mauk did throw a couple of good receptions, and brought the Tigers close enough for the final rushing touchdown. Can they perform as well against the stout Florida defense? I think the home crowd will help a bit, as will the Tigers defense, but this will be a hard-fought game. Personally, I don't think Florida is as good as the national press makes them out, so I actually like the Tigers' chances, although they may only eke out a victory here. MISSOURI by four
#17 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini : The Illini had an extra week to prepare, but can you REALLY prepare to face the Badgers? An advantage the Illini have is the lack of receiving weapons on the part of the Badgers, showing that they rely on running the ball. Unfortunately, the Illini defensive front isn't really strong. The Badgers will score, so the question becomes how well will Illinois' offense score against the Badgers defense? Illinois' offense is good, so expect them to score, but I'm not sure they'll score enough. WISCONSIN by eight
#18 Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils : Here's a potential upset alert. Arizona State is capable of scoring, and their red zone defense is tough. They could give Washington some problems. However, if Washington scores from a distance, the Sun Devils defense doesn't function as well spread out. WASHINGTON by eleven
#19 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores : Here's a rare game for Georgia -- a non-ranked opponent. Easy win. GEORGIA by 26
#20 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers : The Raiders should have an easier time remaining unbeaten this week, as West Virginia is struggling. TEXAS TECH by 24
TCU Horned Frogs at #22 Oklahoma State Cowboys : TCU is actually the Cowboys closest competition beneath them in the Big XII, so the Horned Frogs have some incentive to pull off the upset. I don't think they will. OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
UNLV Running Rebels at #23 Fresno State Bulldogs : Do I think UNLV will upset Fresno State? Let's put it simply - the Rebels barely beat winless Hawaii last week. FRESNO STATE by 23
Purdue Boilermakers at #24 Michigan State Spartans : The worst Big Ten team, and its weakest offense, comes into the toughest defense in the conference. This has the odor of a blowout, and a potential shutout. MICHIGAN STATE by 24
#25 Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas : I'd say there's not much of a chance of an upset, but the Huskies struggled against Akron, for crying out loud! The Chippewas have actually woken up since starting conference play, and they have some strengths. On paper, those strengths do not compare to Northern Illinois. Also, I think the Huskies will respond to the Akron scare with greater focus, winning this game handily. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats : Here's a potential upset. The Gophers are a decent team, and they are coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have to mentally contend with two consecutive conference losses, especially the complete blowout against Wisconsin last week. If they don't keep their head in the game, or Minnesota takes an early lead, the Gophers could win this thing. I'll still pick Northwestern, but not by much. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Other Games of Interest
Maryland Terrapins at Wake Forest Demon Deacons : After a blowout loss and a near loss, the Terrapins need a strong win to boost their confidence and continue to compete for an Atlantic division title. A struggling Wake Forest team is a great place. MARYLAND by 18
BYU Cougars at Houston Cougars : UPSET ALERT! The Cougars looked wimpy in their struggle against Memphis, and BYU has been improving each week. A Cougars team will definitely win this game, but which one is almost a coin toss. In close games, I usually go with defense, but since neither team is especially more capable in that area, I'll go with the home team. HOUSTON by four
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos : Nevada has an impressive 2-1 Mountain West record, but closer examination proves the record is inflated. Their two victories are against Air Force and Hawaii, the two worst teams in the conference. They did play San Diego State to overtime, but that has been their only impressive game of the season. They won't have another here. BOISE STATE by 17
Oregon State Beavers at Cal Golden Bears : Oregon State may be the only team to lose to an FCS team who can earn their way into the Top 25. With projected losses to Florida and UCF, and Houston and BYU beating each other up, the Beavers could launch to 26th position, ready to move in to the Top 25 if another team falters. OREGON STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : This long-standing rivalry comes at a crucial junction point for each team. Both are 4-2 and wanting to get themselves back on track. USC is facing life with an interim coach, which makes this game more crucial for them. They've had an extra week to prepare, but so have the Irish. NOTRE DAME by 13
We are left with 14 unbeaten teams and 15 one-loss teams. We have reached the time of the season when rivalries games and conference match-ups cost many teams their status. Who will fall this week? I haven't picked many upsets, so I'm not expecting too many, but I'll identify some potential upsets.
Tues Oct 15
We're reached the point of the season when Tues games start getting thrown onto the schedule. It used to be a Big East trick, but with the dissolution of that conference, the Sun Belt has taken over.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers : For those of you who do not track the Sun Belt, these are two of the top teams in the conference (Arkansas State being the other). The Ragin Cajuns are unbeaten in the conference, but I don't see that lasting past this game. Their rushing game is good, but the Hilltoppers have a pretty stout line. The Ragin Cajuns don't have a strong passing attack, so a one-sided offense will be easier to defend. WESTERN KENTUCKY by nine
Thurs Oct 17
#9 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels : Miami looks to remain unbeaten against a struggling Tar Heels team. It shouldn't be that hard. North Carolina's lone victory this season has been against Middle Tennessee, and they lost to East Carolina by over 20 points. Look for a larger margin in this game. MIAMI by 30
Fri Oct 18
UCF Golden Knights at #5 Louisville Cardinals : UCF is a decent team, and they had an extra week to prepare for this game, but Teddy Bridgewater is a tough guy to defend. If he doesn't beat himself, this will be a long game for the Knights. LOUISVILLE by 21
Top 25
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : The Razorbacks thought this might be a good year for them, until conference play started. They are yet to beat an SEC opponent, and I don't foresee that streak ending with this game. ALABAMA by lots
Washington State Cougars at #2 Oregon Ducks : Their "big brother" (as Hope Solo refers to Washington) couldn't keep pace with Oregon, so what hope do the Cougars? Slim to none. OREGON by 34
#3 Florida State Seminoles at #7 Clemson Tigers : I considered making this my Game of the Week, but instead picked a long-standing rivalry whose teams need a victory. This is the most highly-anticipated ACC game this season, and many consider it to be the REAL ACC Championship (Clemson and Florida State are in the same division, so they could not meet in the title game). Certainly the winner of this game has the inside track to win it all, and possibly go unbeaten. Clemson started the season hot, but QB Tahj Boyd has shown that a strong pass rush can rattle him. Tahj, say hello to the Seminoles pass rush. Florida State QB Jameis Winston has been posting some insane numbers himself, but the Seminoles strength is their defense, currently ranked third in the country, just like the team themselves. Since Clemson is home, they might pull off the upset, but I'm picking that strong Seminole defense to come through. FLORIDA STATE by eight
Iowa Hawkeyes at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes : The Buckeyes had a bye week last week to get themselves organized and straighten out some of the defensive kinks. That will just make them stronger. OHIO STATE by 21
#6 UCLA Bruins at #12 Stanford Cardinal : This is my first upset alert, although Clemson qualifies. Stanford lost last week, and they don't want to lose two in a row. However, I'm not sure Stanford coach David Shaw can stem the bleeding. After setting high QB marks early in the season, Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has struggled in the past two games. If he can't reverse that trend, UCLA should win easily. The pride of the Cardinal has been its defense, who couldn't stop Utah last week. I think the defense will shape up this week, which will make it harder for UCLA to win, and possibly signal the upset alert. UCLA by six
#8 LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels : Okay, Ole Miss put up great numbers against Texas A&M. You have to remember that A&M is offensively-focussed; defense isn't their forte. LSU is a staunch defense, one that will frustrate QB Bo Wallace and the Ole Miss offensive line. Zach Mettenberger had a slow game last week, so he's inching for a chance to shine. He'll get it. LSU by 17
Iowa State Cyclones at #10 Baylor Bears : Iowa State almost beat one offensive powerhouse in Texas Tech. Can they actually do it to Baylor? Nah. Baylor QB Bryce Petty has quietly surpassed Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater for the highest QB rating in the country. Baylor has more weapons for the Cyclones to stop, and their defense isn't that deep. BAYLOR by 32
Auburn Tigers at #11 Texas A&M Aggies : Auburn has shown some muscle, and they've had an extra week to check out footage from Alabama and Ole Miss about how to beat the Aggies. The problem? Both of those teams have a better offense than Auburn, and you can't think of beating A&M without a dynamic offense. TEXAS A&M by 20
Indiana Hoosiers at #13 Michigan Wolverines : The Wolverines will bounce back, although Indiana has shown themselves to be a tough opponent. Still, I don't think the Hoosiers have a way to counter QB Devin Gardner, who is fast, making quick adjustments and running out of danger. MICHIGAN by eleven
#14 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks : Oklahoma needs a strong victory to redeem themselves for the shocking loss to Texas. Pity Kansas, this is precisely the wrong time to face a determined Sooners squad. OKLAHOMA by 20
#15 South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers : Clowney seems healthy, playing in nearly all of the defensive snaps last week. That gives the Gamecocks defense the power they needed, so they are prepared to surge through the rest of the SEC season. SOUTH CAROLINA by 18
Florida Gators at #16 Missouri Tigers : This one has upset potential written on it, as freshman Maty Mauk must replace injured James Franklin. Mauk did okay in relief last week, but he was simply nursing a lead. The best offensive play while Mauk was on the field was conducted by Bud Sasser, who threw a touchdown pass to L'Damien Washington. Mauk did throw a couple of good receptions, and brought the Tigers close enough for the final rushing touchdown. Can they perform as well against the stout Florida defense? I think the home crowd will help a bit, as will the Tigers defense, but this will be a hard-fought game. Personally, I don't think Florida is as good as the national press makes them out, so I actually like the Tigers' chances, although they may only eke out a victory here. MISSOURI by four
#17 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini : The Illini had an extra week to prepare, but can you REALLY prepare to face the Badgers? An advantage the Illini have is the lack of receiving weapons on the part of the Badgers, showing that they rely on running the ball. Unfortunately, the Illini defensive front isn't really strong. The Badgers will score, so the question becomes how well will Illinois' offense score against the Badgers defense? Illinois' offense is good, so expect them to score, but I'm not sure they'll score enough. WISCONSIN by eight
#18 Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils : Here's a potential upset alert. Arizona State is capable of scoring, and their red zone defense is tough. They could give Washington some problems. However, if Washington scores from a distance, the Sun Devils defense doesn't function as well spread out. WASHINGTON by eleven
#19 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores : Here's a rare game for Georgia -- a non-ranked opponent. Easy win. GEORGIA by 26
#20 Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers : The Raiders should have an easier time remaining unbeaten this week, as West Virginia is struggling. TEXAS TECH by 24
TCU Horned Frogs at #22 Oklahoma State Cowboys : TCU is actually the Cowboys closest competition beneath them in the Big XII, so the Horned Frogs have some incentive to pull off the upset. I don't think they will. OKLAHOMA STATE by 17
UNLV Running Rebels at #23 Fresno State Bulldogs : Do I think UNLV will upset Fresno State? Let's put it simply - the Rebels barely beat winless Hawaii last week. FRESNO STATE by 23
Purdue Boilermakers at #24 Michigan State Spartans : The worst Big Ten team, and its weakest offense, comes into the toughest defense in the conference. This has the odor of a blowout, and a potential shutout. MICHIGAN STATE by 24
#25 Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas : I'd say there's not much of a chance of an upset, but the Huskies struggled against Akron, for crying out loud! The Chippewas have actually woken up since starting conference play, and they have some strengths. On paper, those strengths do not compare to Northern Illinois. Also, I think the Huskies will respond to the Akron scare with greater focus, winning this game handily. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats : Here's a potential upset. The Gophers are a decent team, and they are coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have to mentally contend with two consecutive conference losses, especially the complete blowout against Wisconsin last week. If they don't keep their head in the game, or Minnesota takes an early lead, the Gophers could win this thing. I'll still pick Northwestern, but not by much. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Other Games of Interest
Maryland Terrapins at Wake Forest Demon Deacons : After a blowout loss and a near loss, the Terrapins need a strong win to boost their confidence and continue to compete for an Atlantic division title. A struggling Wake Forest team is a great place. MARYLAND by 18
BYU Cougars at Houston Cougars : UPSET ALERT! The Cougars looked wimpy in their struggle against Memphis, and BYU has been improving each week. A Cougars team will definitely win this game, but which one is almost a coin toss. In close games, I usually go with defense, but since neither team is especially more capable in that area, I'll go with the home team. HOUSTON by four
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos : Nevada has an impressive 2-1 Mountain West record, but closer examination proves the record is inflated. Their two victories are against Air Force and Hawaii, the two worst teams in the conference. They did play San Diego State to overtime, but that has been their only impressive game of the season. They won't have another here. BOISE STATE by 17
Oregon State Beavers at Cal Golden Bears : Oregon State may be the only team to lose to an FCS team who can earn their way into the Top 25. With projected losses to Florida and UCF, and Houston and BYU beating each other up, the Beavers could launch to 26th position, ready to move in to the Top 25 if another team falters. OREGON STATE by 23
GAME OF THE WEEK: USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : This long-standing rivalry comes at a crucial junction point for each team. Both are 4-2 and wanting to get themselves back on track. USC is facing life with an interim coach, which makes this game more crucial for them. They've had an extra week to prepare, but so have the Irish. NOTRE DAME by 13
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 7
We had our first major Top 25 Upset Week of 2013! Ohio State and Miami were probably happy they had bye weeks, as three previous unbeaten teams fell, other Top 25 teams struggled, and the rankings had the most shake-up since this season started!
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1] : The Tide easily held onto the top spot with a slaughter of Kentucky, but again it took a full quarter for their offense to move. Oregon was a temporarily considered top team.
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) [2] : The Quack Attach pulled away from Washington in the second half, leaving no doubt that their offense is unstoppable.
3. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) [3]
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) [4]
5. Louisville Cardinal (6-0) [6] : Another stellar performance for Teddy Bridgewater, who is causing Heisman buzz and remains the name dropped as top NFL draft pick.
6. UCLA Bruins (5-0) [9] : Their struggles against Utah don't look as bad, now that Utah upset Stanford. UCLA's mangling of Cal isn't great, as everyone has mangled Cal this season.
7. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [11] : Boston College successfully slowed the Clemson offense, but they couldn't stop them.
8. LSU Tigers (6-1) [7] : Hey, Zach Mettenberger, where was the offense? The defense ruled against Florida, reminding us of the LSU of yore.
9. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) [13] : A four-notch jump during a bye week? Welcome to the chaos of Upset Week!
10. Baylor Bears (5-0) [18] : The offense didn't have quite the fire we've seen from Baylor, but it was still an impressive win over a feisty Kansas State squad. Don't forget that the Wildcats had been unbeaten in the conference, despite their two non-conference losses.
11. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [10] : Johnny Manziel hurt his knee in the second quarter, but returned to pass for 346 yards and run for two touchdowns. The A&M defense was the squad who looked sick.
12. Stanford Cardinal (5-1) [8] : Ah, the first of the former unbeatens
13. Michigan Wolverines (5-1) [12] : The second of those, who at least played into four overtimes, despite scoring only two field goals in those overtime periods.
14. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [5] : And the final of the former unbeatens, who were blown out by Texas in the Red River Rivalry, as the team rallied around their embattled coach. Considering that Texas is unbeaten in Big XII play (along with Texas Tech and Baylor), I fail to see why everyone is screaming for Mack Brown to lose his job.
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) [17] : The defense shined with the return of Jadeveon Clowney.
16. Missouri Tigers (6-0) [24] : They established a second quarter lead over Georgia and then held off a late surge to remain unbeaten. The only team in the SEC like that? Alabama. Nice company to have.
17. Wisconsin Badgers (4-2) [19] : They manhandled the Northwestern Wildcats to remain a game back from Ohio State in the Leaders division.
18. Washington Huskies (4-2) [15] : They stayed close to Oregon for a half, but they couldn't sustain that pace.
19. Georgia Bulldogs (4-2) [14] : Nobody, not even Notre Dame, has had a tougher first half of the season than Georgia, who has played four Top Ten teams in that span. They're still a dangerous team, as evidenced by their near comeback against Missouri.
20. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0) [20] : A rather pedestrian performance for the Raiders this week. If they want to capture the Big XII title, they need to do better than that.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [26] : They followed up their offensive showcase against Illinois by demolishing Purdue. It should have been a shutout, but they gave Purdue a late touchdown.
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [21]
23. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0) [22]
24. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [NR] : Indiana fought harder than we expected, but the Spartans endured. The top-ranked running defense allowed an easy 62-yard rushing touchdown, but then the Hoosiers ground game could gain no ground.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-0) [25] : They remain unbeaten, surviving their own upset scare, but it was not an impressive win over losing Akron at all.
Dropped out: Northwestern Wildcats [#16]. Arizona Wildcats [#23] - definitely not a good week to be a Wildcat, as Kansas State lost, too
On the Edge: Florida Gators (4-2), UCF Golden Knights (4-1), Oregon State Beavers (5-1), Houston Cougars (5-0), Auburn Tigers (5-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2), BYU Cougars (4-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Boise State Broncos (4-2, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), Texas Longhorns (4-2)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1] : The Tide easily held onto the top spot with a slaughter of Kentucky, but again it took a full quarter for their offense to move. Oregon was a temporarily considered top team.
2. Oregon Ducks (6-0) [2] : The Quack Attach pulled away from Washington in the second half, leaving no doubt that their offense is unstoppable.
3. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) [3]
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) [4]
5. Louisville Cardinal (6-0) [6] : Another stellar performance for Teddy Bridgewater, who is causing Heisman buzz and remains the name dropped as top NFL draft pick.
6. UCLA Bruins (5-0) [9] : Their struggles against Utah don't look as bad, now that Utah upset Stanford. UCLA's mangling of Cal isn't great, as everyone has mangled Cal this season.
7. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [11] : Boston College successfully slowed the Clemson offense, but they couldn't stop them.
8. LSU Tigers (6-1) [7] : Hey, Zach Mettenberger, where was the offense? The defense ruled against Florida, reminding us of the LSU of yore.
9. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) [13] : A four-notch jump during a bye week? Welcome to the chaos of Upset Week!
10. Baylor Bears (5-0) [18] : The offense didn't have quite the fire we've seen from Baylor, but it was still an impressive win over a feisty Kansas State squad. Don't forget that the Wildcats had been unbeaten in the conference, despite their two non-conference losses.
11. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) [10] : Johnny Manziel hurt his knee in the second quarter, but returned to pass for 346 yards and run for two touchdowns. The A&M defense was the squad who looked sick.
12. Stanford Cardinal (5-1) [8] : Ah, the first of the former unbeatens
13. Michigan Wolverines (5-1) [12] : The second of those, who at least played into four overtimes, despite scoring only two field goals in those overtime periods.
14. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [5] : And the final of the former unbeatens, who were blown out by Texas in the Red River Rivalry, as the team rallied around their embattled coach. Considering that Texas is unbeaten in Big XII play (along with Texas Tech and Baylor), I fail to see why everyone is screaming for Mack Brown to lose his job.
15. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1) [17] : The defense shined with the return of Jadeveon Clowney.
16. Missouri Tigers (6-0) [24] : They established a second quarter lead over Georgia and then held off a late surge to remain unbeaten. The only team in the SEC like that? Alabama. Nice company to have.
17. Wisconsin Badgers (4-2) [19] : They manhandled the Northwestern Wildcats to remain a game back from Ohio State in the Leaders division.
18. Washington Huskies (4-2) [15] : They stayed close to Oregon for a half, but they couldn't sustain that pace.
19. Georgia Bulldogs (4-2) [14] : Nobody, not even Notre Dame, has had a tougher first half of the season than Georgia, who has played four Top Ten teams in that span. They're still a dangerous team, as evidenced by their near comeback against Missouri.
20. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0) [20] : A rather pedestrian performance for the Raiders this week. If they want to capture the Big XII title, they need to do better than that.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-1) [26] : They followed up their offensive showcase against Illinois by demolishing Purdue. It should have been a shutout, but they gave Purdue a late touchdown.
22. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [21]
23. Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0) [22]
24. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [NR] : Indiana fought harder than we expected, but the Spartans endured. The top-ranked running defense allowed an easy 62-yard rushing touchdown, but then the Hoosiers ground game could gain no ground.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-0) [25] : They remain unbeaten, surviving their own upset scare, but it was not an impressive win over losing Akron at all.
Dropped out: Northwestern Wildcats [#16]. Arizona Wildcats [#23] - definitely not a good week to be a Wildcat, as Kansas State lost, too
On the Edge: Florida Gators (4-2), UCF Golden Knights (4-1), Oregon State Beavers (5-1), Houston Cougars (5-0), Auburn Tigers (5-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2), BYU Cougars (4-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2), Boise State Broncos (4-2, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2), Texas Longhorns (4-2)
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 6 Power Rankings and picks
Picking so many visitors wasn't as bad this week; in fact, nearly the same number of visitors won as I picked, just some of them were different teams. I'm taking a slightly more normal track this week.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) [2] : The Saints held the Bears offense to a season-low output, and they played a mistake-free game, showing that the Bears need their defense to force takeaways in order to win. The Saints, on the other hand, can move the ball without defensive help. What makes them more dangerous is that they have help from their defense.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) [4] : The Chiefs have all of the elements to succeed, and they use them wisely. While their offense has garnered attention, their defense is one of the toughest in the league. That combination makes them dangerous.
3. Denver Broncos (5-0) [1] : Dallas demonstrated how poor the Broncos' defense really is. It's been known for years how to shake Tony Romo - pressure him. The Broncos didn't bother to pressure him until late in the fourth quarter. Moreover, they didn't harrass the receivers. They were allowed to run their routes, and they were left wide open. Romo is experienced enough to get the ball to where it is supposed to go, so he had a career-high day. If Denver wants to succeed, they need to improve their defense.
4. Indianapolis Colts (4-1) [6] : The Colts and Andrew Luck outplayed Seattle's defense, and that's not easy. The Colts are improving, and that makes them dangerous for future opponents.
5. Seatle Seahawks (4-1) [3] : The Seahawks defense couldn't stop Andrew Luck, but the Seahawks have plenty of talent. That talent took a boost on Sunday with the return of Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons. They had a little rust on them, but they were shaking that off. This week they should be back to the form that made them the potent pass rushing duo in the league in 2012.
6. New England Patriots (4-1) [5] : Their defense has carried them this season, and it showed on Sunday. They only let the Bengals score 13 points, but it was enough for them to win. The offense is hoping for a boost with the projected return of Rob Gronkowski.
7. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) [15] : The 49ers destroyed the Texans as Colin Kaepernick finally looked as comfortable as he did last season. The defense was back to form, too. It that was not a fluke, the 49ers will rise quickly.
8. Green Bay Packers (2-2) [19] : The Packers looked like a new team after their bye week. They destroyed the Lions offense. While the Pack's offense still needs a bit of work, the power of the team that we expected to see is emerging. The bye week was what they needed to shake off their extremely difficult slate to start the season.
9. Chicago Bears (3-2) [8] : They may have lost to the Saints, but they held their own well. Despite pressure, Cutler did not fold like he did the previous week. The defense couldn't shine because they couldn't get the Saints offense to make mistakes, but they should have an easier time against lesser opponents.
10. Tennessee Titans (3-2) [9] : The Titans did struggle without Jake Locker, but Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't terrible. He could improve over the next couple of weeks, if they can overcome their tough schedule.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : There is a three-game gap between the two Top Five teams and the bottom half of the division, but even the bottom two teams are forces.
2. NFC North [3] : Green Bay came back from their bye week empowered, knocking Detroit out of the Top Ten and vaulting into it. Chicago lost, but not by much. With all four teams playing this week, we could see some great results.
3. NFC West [6] : Seattle may have lost, but the other three teams won, and they won big. All of the teams in this division are strong enough to concern opponents.
4. AFC East [2] : It wasn't a good week for this division, as three of the four teams lost. Still, there are hopes for improvement, as Jets QB Geno Smith keeps improving, the Patriots could get some offensive tools back soon, and Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins are still a strong team.
5 (tie). NFC South [5] : The Saints took over the top spot, but they are the only impressive team in the division. This is likely to be the first division title crowned, if Carolina or Atlanta don't improve.
5 (tie). AFC North [7] : Impressive wins by Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland escalated the division. Pittsburgh didn't drag them down, because the Steelers didn't play. For Cincy and the Browns, it was their second impressive game in a row.
7. AFC South [4] : Only Indy won this week. While the Titans still showing life, Houston and Jacksonville looked dead. If the Texans and Titans don't reverse this, they may find 7th place a familiar location. They'll stay in seventh place because the eighth place division is...
8. NFC East [8] : Really, is this a surprise? This is the only division lacking a team with a winning record, and the division leader has beaten only divisional opponents. Two of the three worst defenses live here, and that's downright weird for this division.
Thursday night game
New York Giants at Chicago Bears : The Bears don't usually do well in night games, but the Giants are so bad that it would take a minor miracle for the Bears to lose. This might be the best offensive performance of the season so far for New York, just because the Bears don't play so well at night, but the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the league, so the Bears offense will rock. BEARS, 37-23
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings : The Vikings won in London, and they had an extra week to recover from jet lag. Matt Cassell returns to the QB reins, and I think he'll keep things interesting. He's hard for opposing defenses to figure, so Minnesota should have some success. Cam Newton might frustrate the Vikings defense as well, but their perchance to commit costly errors in the fourth quarter may lose the game for the Panthers. VIKINGS, 27-26
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills : The Bills are good, but they may still be reeling from the smackdown administered by the Browns. Furthermore, the Bengals are a team on the rise, rolling after two consecutive strong performances against previously unbeaten teams. BENGALS, 24-17
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns : Believe it or not, I had a hard time picking this one. Two weeks ago, I would have quickly and easily picked the Lions. Now, they seem a little confused about what happened against Green Bay, and the Browns are sailing on the momentum of three straight victories, a streak Cleveland hasn't had in over seven years. However, I'm picking the Browns for one main reason - the return of Brandon Wheeden. He isn't able to move the offense as well as Brian Hoyer, and they need to score as quickly as Detroit can. LIONS, 31-23
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens : Another tough one to call. The Ravens' defense has slipped since winning the Super Bowl, but they can still be tough. Green Bay has seemingly bounced back well from their tough early schedule, but Baltimore will keep this one close enough that either team could win. I'll go with the Pack, but since Baltimore is at home, and I'm already picking several visiting teams, this one could easily go the other way. PACKERS, 30-27
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs : No doubt about this one. Oakland held San Diego last week, but the Raiders have always played well at night. The Chiefs are potent, and they don't make as many mistakes as San Diego. CHIEFS, 28-14
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Bucs : Tampa needs a win, but I don't think they'll get it. Their defense has lost some speed, and that'll be important against the high-speed offense of the Eagles. Worse, Mike Glennon has not yet proven to be a capable replacement for Josh Freeman, who has now moved to Minnesota (although they may have solved their problems with Matt Cassel). EAGLES, 26-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets : Pittsburgh frequently does well coming off a bye week, but they face a serious threat in the Jets. Rookie QB Geno Smith keeps getting better, and the defense has started to show up, too. While Pittsburgh's running game has improved with the addition of Le'Veon Bell to the starting lineup, they still have a ways to go. JETS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Houston Texans : Houston has a chance to regain some esteem after being blown out last week. While Matt Schaub is looking shabby, and the defense looks poor, they still have better tools than the Rams. If they can avoid making too many mistakes, they could win this game. TEXANS, 28-26
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers : Atlanta is suffering, made worse with injuries to both Roddy White and Julio Jones. Matt Ryan has fewer reliable tools on offense, which is not good now that the 49ers defense is bad in form. 49ERS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots : The Patriots are hoping to get Rob Gronkowski back, but their bigger concern is the loss of Vince Wilfork. That weakens their defense, and a weak defense is not what you want when the Saints come marching in. SAINTS, 27-13
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks : This might be a close game, but I like the Seahawks' chances. The Seattle fans help their team, and the Titans have lost punch with Jake Locker's injury. SEAHAWKS, 26-16
Sunday night
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys : RGIII is still hurting, and so is the Redskins offense. While Dallas won't score as smoothly as they did against New Orleans, they will be able to outplay the hobbling Redskins. COWBOYS, 30-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers : Never doubt what the Chargers can do when they have to, but I like what Andrew Luck and the Colts are doing right now. If the Colts take an early lead, Philip Rivers will force it more, and that's when they make mistakes. COLTS, 27-17
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) [2] : The Saints held the Bears offense to a season-low output, and they played a mistake-free game, showing that the Bears need their defense to force takeaways in order to win. The Saints, on the other hand, can move the ball without defensive help. What makes them more dangerous is that they have help from their defense.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) [4] : The Chiefs have all of the elements to succeed, and they use them wisely. While their offense has garnered attention, their defense is one of the toughest in the league. That combination makes them dangerous.
3. Denver Broncos (5-0) [1] : Dallas demonstrated how poor the Broncos' defense really is. It's been known for years how to shake Tony Romo - pressure him. The Broncos didn't bother to pressure him until late in the fourth quarter. Moreover, they didn't harrass the receivers. They were allowed to run their routes, and they were left wide open. Romo is experienced enough to get the ball to where it is supposed to go, so he had a career-high day. If Denver wants to succeed, they need to improve their defense.
4. Indianapolis Colts (4-1) [6] : The Colts and Andrew Luck outplayed Seattle's defense, and that's not easy. The Colts are improving, and that makes them dangerous for future opponents.
5. Seatle Seahawks (4-1) [3] : The Seahawks defense couldn't stop Andrew Luck, but the Seahawks have plenty of talent. That talent took a boost on Sunday with the return of Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons. They had a little rust on them, but they were shaking that off. This week they should be back to the form that made them the potent pass rushing duo in the league in 2012.
6. New England Patriots (4-1) [5] : Their defense has carried them this season, and it showed on Sunday. They only let the Bengals score 13 points, but it was enough for them to win. The offense is hoping for a boost with the projected return of Rob Gronkowski.
7. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) [15] : The 49ers destroyed the Texans as Colin Kaepernick finally looked as comfortable as he did last season. The defense was back to form, too. It that was not a fluke, the 49ers will rise quickly.
8. Green Bay Packers (2-2) [19] : The Packers looked like a new team after their bye week. They destroyed the Lions offense. While the Pack's offense still needs a bit of work, the power of the team that we expected to see is emerging. The bye week was what they needed to shake off their extremely difficult slate to start the season.
9. Chicago Bears (3-2) [8] : They may have lost to the Saints, but they held their own well. Despite pressure, Cutler did not fold like he did the previous week. The defense couldn't shine because they couldn't get the Saints offense to make mistakes, but they should have an easier time against lesser opponents.
10. Tennessee Titans (3-2) [9] : The Titans did struggle without Jake Locker, but Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't terrible. He could improve over the next couple of weeks, if they can overcome their tough schedule.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : There is a three-game gap between the two Top Five teams and the bottom half of the division, but even the bottom two teams are forces.
2. NFC North [3] : Green Bay came back from their bye week empowered, knocking Detroit out of the Top Ten and vaulting into it. Chicago lost, but not by much. With all four teams playing this week, we could see some great results.
3. NFC West [6] : Seattle may have lost, but the other three teams won, and they won big. All of the teams in this division are strong enough to concern opponents.
4. AFC East [2] : It wasn't a good week for this division, as three of the four teams lost. Still, there are hopes for improvement, as Jets QB Geno Smith keeps improving, the Patriots could get some offensive tools back soon, and Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins are still a strong team.
5 (tie). NFC South [5] : The Saints took over the top spot, but they are the only impressive team in the division. This is likely to be the first division title crowned, if Carolina or Atlanta don't improve.
5 (tie). AFC North [7] : Impressive wins by Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland escalated the division. Pittsburgh didn't drag them down, because the Steelers didn't play. For Cincy and the Browns, it was their second impressive game in a row.
7. AFC South [4] : Only Indy won this week. While the Titans still showing life, Houston and Jacksonville looked dead. If the Texans and Titans don't reverse this, they may find 7th place a familiar location. They'll stay in seventh place because the eighth place division is...
8. NFC East [8] : Really, is this a surprise? This is the only division lacking a team with a winning record, and the division leader has beaten only divisional opponents. Two of the three worst defenses live here, and that's downright weird for this division.
Thursday night game
New York Giants at Chicago Bears : The Bears don't usually do well in night games, but the Giants are so bad that it would take a minor miracle for the Bears to lose. This might be the best offensive performance of the season so far for New York, just because the Bears don't play so well at night, but the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the league, so the Bears offense will rock. BEARS, 37-23
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings : The Vikings won in London, and they had an extra week to recover from jet lag. Matt Cassell returns to the QB reins, and I think he'll keep things interesting. He's hard for opposing defenses to figure, so Minnesota should have some success. Cam Newton might frustrate the Vikings defense as well, but their perchance to commit costly errors in the fourth quarter may lose the game for the Panthers. VIKINGS, 27-26
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills : The Bills are good, but they may still be reeling from the smackdown administered by the Browns. Furthermore, the Bengals are a team on the rise, rolling after two consecutive strong performances against previously unbeaten teams. BENGALS, 24-17
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns : Believe it or not, I had a hard time picking this one. Two weeks ago, I would have quickly and easily picked the Lions. Now, they seem a little confused about what happened against Green Bay, and the Browns are sailing on the momentum of three straight victories, a streak Cleveland hasn't had in over seven years. However, I'm picking the Browns for one main reason - the return of Brandon Wheeden. He isn't able to move the offense as well as Brian Hoyer, and they need to score as quickly as Detroit can. LIONS, 31-23
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens : Another tough one to call. The Ravens' defense has slipped since winning the Super Bowl, but they can still be tough. Green Bay has seemingly bounced back well from their tough early schedule, but Baltimore will keep this one close enough that either team could win. I'll go with the Pack, but since Baltimore is at home, and I'm already picking several visiting teams, this one could easily go the other way. PACKERS, 30-27
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs : No doubt about this one. Oakland held San Diego last week, but the Raiders have always played well at night. The Chiefs are potent, and they don't make as many mistakes as San Diego. CHIEFS, 28-14
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Bucs : Tampa needs a win, but I don't think they'll get it. Their defense has lost some speed, and that'll be important against the high-speed offense of the Eagles. Worse, Mike Glennon has not yet proven to be a capable replacement for Josh Freeman, who has now moved to Minnesota (although they may have solved their problems with Matt Cassel). EAGLES, 26-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets : Pittsburgh frequently does well coming off a bye week, but they face a serious threat in the Jets. Rookie QB Geno Smith keeps getting better, and the defense has started to show up, too. While Pittsburgh's running game has improved with the addition of Le'Veon Bell to the starting lineup, they still have a ways to go. JETS, 20-17
St Louis Rams at Houston Texans : Houston has a chance to regain some esteem after being blown out last week. While Matt Schaub is looking shabby, and the defense looks poor, they still have better tools than the Rams. If they can avoid making too many mistakes, they could win this game. TEXANS, 28-26
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers : Atlanta is suffering, made worse with injuries to both Roddy White and Julio Jones. Matt Ryan has fewer reliable tools on offense, which is not good now that the 49ers defense is bad in form. 49ERS, 26-13
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots : The Patriots are hoping to get Rob Gronkowski back, but their bigger concern is the loss of Vince Wilfork. That weakens their defense, and a weak defense is not what you want when the Saints come marching in. SAINTS, 27-13
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks : This might be a close game, but I like the Seahawks' chances. The Seattle fans help their team, and the Titans have lost punch with Jake Locker's injury. SEAHAWKS, 26-16
Sunday night
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys : RGIII is still hurting, and so is the Redskins offense. While Dallas won't score as smoothly as they did against New Orleans, they will be able to outplay the hobbling Redskins. COWBOYS, 30-20
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers : Never doubt what the Chargers can do when they have to, but I like what Andrew Luck and the Colts are doing right now. If the Colts take an early lead, Philip Rivers will force it more, and that's when they make mistakes. COLTS, 27-17
Sunday, October 6, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 7 picks
Very few upsets, but some surprising results. As far as upsets, I'd say BYU overpowering Utah State qualifies, as does South Florida gaining their first win of the season over a good Cincinnati team. The Big Ten, MAC, and SEC provided the surprising results of the week. Nebraska's young QB could be creating a controversy when Martinez is healthy, as he scalded the Illini. More impressive was the performance of Nebraska's young defense, as they slowed an offense that no other team could slow. Indiana gained their first victory over Penn State since the Nittany Lions entered the conference, and blew them away. Buffalo has pulled themselves out of the MAC cellar with an overwhelming victory over Eastern Michigan. Florida dominated a good Arkansas team, and Kentucky nearly beat a defensively-challenged South Carolina team.
Thurs Oct 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #6 Louisville Cardinals : Rutgers is good, but Teddy Bridgewater is better. It'll take a better defense than Rutgers has to slow Louisville, and the Scarlet Knights offense can't outscore Louisville without that help. LOUISVILLE by 23
#23 Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans : Both teams had bye weeks, so neither get an unfair advantage. For USC, they had many more issues to address in their extra week, as well as getting used to a new head coach. If the Trojans haven't stuffed themselves on the new desserts on their gameday table, they might be able to keep pace with Arizona, but I think the Wildcats will pull away in the fourth. ARIZONA by eight
Fri Oct 11
Temple Owls at Cincinnati Bearcats : The Bearcats need a solid victory to erase the sting of the South Florida upset. Fortunately, they get a chance. That is assuming that they don't underestimate the Owls, who are not as terrible this year as they have been. CINCY by 16
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats : Kentucky comes into this game feeling good, after nearly upsetting South Carolina. They'll need more than good feelings to beat the Tide, though. ALABAMA by 26
#2 Oregon Ducks at #15 Washington Huskies : My runner-up for Game of the Week should a high-scoring game as the two top offenses in the conference face off. Washington is good, but not good enough to keep pace with the Ducks. It won't be a blowout for Oregon, though. OREGON by eleven
#5 Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns at Texas Stadium: It's an indication of how far Texas has fallen that the 2013 installment of the Red River Rivalry did not merit Game of the Week status. Texas will likely get up for this game, but their enthusiasm will be worn down by the Sooners. The second half will belong to Oklahoma, as will the game. OKLAHOMA by 23
Florida Gators at #7 LSU Tigers : Florida finally had an impressive game last week, but LSU should wipe away those good feelings. The Tigers will pulverize this team, and expose the fact that their bench is thin. LSU by 26
#8 Stanford Cardinal at Utah Utes : Utah gave UCLA fits, but don't expect Stanford to be caught in the same trap. It may not be a huge margin of victory, but the Cardinal defense will stop Utah. STANFORD by 12
California Golden Bears at #9 UCLA Bruins : The Bruins get a chance to redeem their poor performance against Utah by beating on a pathetic Cal team. UCLA by 28
#10 Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels : Ole Miss started the season well, but they've been getting beaten up by SEC opponents. Few teams beat up opponents better than the Manziel-led Aggies. TEXAS A&M by 30
Boston College Eagles at #11Clemson Tigers : BC has a decent defense, so Clemson may not score with the flurry they have been, but the Eagles aren't strong enough to hold them back forever. CLEMSON by 18
#12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions : Penn State hates to lose two games in a row, but I think that'll happen. Michigan woke up last week, and I don't see them going back to dreamland in this game. MICHIGAN by 20
#24 Missouri Tigers at #14 Georgia Bulldogs : This game could go either way. I think Georgia will wake up after a lackluster performance last week, but don't be surprised if Missouri studies the Georgia flaws and comes up with a winning game plan. GEORGIA by three
#17 South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks : If the Gamecocks don't fix their defensive issues, the Razorbacks might pull off the win. Steve Spurrier is good at making adjustments, though, so I think South Carolina will succeed. SOUTH CAROLINA by nine
#18 Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats : Kansas State is proving why they lost to North Dakota State, as they have not been able to succeed against a Big XII opponent. Now they face the hottest offense in the conference. This one is a no-brainer. BAYLOR by 34
Iowa State Cyclones at #20 Texas Tech Red Raiders : The Raiders will roll over the Cyclones, placing them firmly among the top three Big XII teams (the others being Oklahoma and Baylor, of course). TEXAS TECH by 32
Akron Zips at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies : Kent State gave Northern Illinois some problems, but Akron has too many problems of their own. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 23
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans : Indiana had a great win last week, but they won't be able to extend it. Michigan State has the best defense in the conference, and they will give the Hoosiers fits. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers : Purdue had an extra week to prepare, but that won't help them. The young Cornhuskers defense grew up against Illinois, and their freshman QB is hot. The Cornhuskers may have one of the youngest teams in the conference, but they're a tough bunch of youngsters. NEBRASKA by 24
Other Games of Interest
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies : Virginia Tech has played mostly close games since their opening massacre against Alabama, but they are a capable team. Pitt has been too inconsistent for me to believe they can succeed. VIRGINIA TECH by 16
Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars : Houston wants to maintain pace with Louisville in the American Athletic Conference, and this game will help much. Memphis just doesn't have the power this season. HOUSTON by 21
Western Carolina Catamounts at Auburn Tigers : It's a bit late in the season for an FBS v FCS match-up, but Auburn doesn't mind. With SEC play ongoing, teams will be losing, and therefore losing ground in division races. Auburn reaps the benefits from this game. AUBURN by 27
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ball State Cardinals : Kent State played Northern Illinois tough, but Ball State now has the warning, so I'm sure they'll be ready for whatever the Golden Flashes dish out. BALL STATE by 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at BYU Cougars : These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Georgia Tech's defense can hold back opponents, while BYU has a balanced attack that can keep opposing defenses guessing. The key to this game may be who outsmarts their opponent first. I'll go with the Yellow Jackets to do that, but watch our for BYU. GEORGIA TECH by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #16 Northwestern Wildcats at #19 Wisconsin Badgers : Northwestern has NEVER been featured in two consecutive Games of the Week, but that shows how strong their program is this year. Their offense overpowered the Buckeyes defense for three quarters, and their defense forced three turnovers. Turnovers have been the bane of Wisconsin in the past, too, so the formula that had Northwestern lead Ohio State for over half a game should propel them past Wisconsin, too. NORTHWESTERN by nine
Thurs Oct 10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #6 Louisville Cardinals : Rutgers is good, but Teddy Bridgewater is better. It'll take a better defense than Rutgers has to slow Louisville, and the Scarlet Knights offense can't outscore Louisville without that help. LOUISVILLE by 23
#23 Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans : Both teams had bye weeks, so neither get an unfair advantage. For USC, they had many more issues to address in their extra week, as well as getting used to a new head coach. If the Trojans haven't stuffed themselves on the new desserts on their gameday table, they might be able to keep pace with Arizona, but I think the Wildcats will pull away in the fourth. ARIZONA by eight
Fri Oct 11
Temple Owls at Cincinnati Bearcats : The Bearcats need a solid victory to erase the sting of the South Florida upset. Fortunately, they get a chance. That is assuming that they don't underestimate the Owls, who are not as terrible this year as they have been. CINCY by 16
Top 25
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats : Kentucky comes into this game feeling good, after nearly upsetting South Carolina. They'll need more than good feelings to beat the Tide, though. ALABAMA by 26
#2 Oregon Ducks at #15 Washington Huskies : My runner-up for Game of the Week should a high-scoring game as the two top offenses in the conference face off. Washington is good, but not good enough to keep pace with the Ducks. It won't be a blowout for Oregon, though. OREGON by eleven
#5 Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns at Texas Stadium: It's an indication of how far Texas has fallen that the 2013 installment of the Red River Rivalry did not merit Game of the Week status. Texas will likely get up for this game, but their enthusiasm will be worn down by the Sooners. The second half will belong to Oklahoma, as will the game. OKLAHOMA by 23
Florida Gators at #7 LSU Tigers : Florida finally had an impressive game last week, but LSU should wipe away those good feelings. The Tigers will pulverize this team, and expose the fact that their bench is thin. LSU by 26
#8 Stanford Cardinal at Utah Utes : Utah gave UCLA fits, but don't expect Stanford to be caught in the same trap. It may not be a huge margin of victory, but the Cardinal defense will stop Utah. STANFORD by 12
California Golden Bears at #9 UCLA Bruins : The Bruins get a chance to redeem their poor performance against Utah by beating on a pathetic Cal team. UCLA by 28
#10 Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels : Ole Miss started the season well, but they've been getting beaten up by SEC opponents. Few teams beat up opponents better than the Manziel-led Aggies. TEXAS A&M by 30
Boston College Eagles at #11Clemson Tigers : BC has a decent defense, so Clemson may not score with the flurry they have been, but the Eagles aren't strong enough to hold them back forever. CLEMSON by 18
#12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions : Penn State hates to lose two games in a row, but I think that'll happen. Michigan woke up last week, and I don't see them going back to dreamland in this game. MICHIGAN by 20
#24 Missouri Tigers at #14 Georgia Bulldogs : This game could go either way. I think Georgia will wake up after a lackluster performance last week, but don't be surprised if Missouri studies the Georgia flaws and comes up with a winning game plan. GEORGIA by three
#17 South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks : If the Gamecocks don't fix their defensive issues, the Razorbacks might pull off the win. Steve Spurrier is good at making adjustments, though, so I think South Carolina will succeed. SOUTH CAROLINA by nine
#18 Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats : Kansas State is proving why they lost to North Dakota State, as they have not been able to succeed against a Big XII opponent. Now they face the hottest offense in the conference. This one is a no-brainer. BAYLOR by 34
Iowa State Cyclones at #20 Texas Tech Red Raiders : The Raiders will roll over the Cyclones, placing them firmly among the top three Big XII teams (the others being Oklahoma and Baylor, of course). TEXAS TECH by 32
Akron Zips at #25 Northern Illinois Huskies : Kent State gave Northern Illinois some problems, but Akron has too many problems of their own. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 23
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans : Indiana had a great win last week, but they won't be able to extend it. Michigan State has the best defense in the conference, and they will give the Hoosiers fits. MICHIGAN STATE by 17
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers : Purdue had an extra week to prepare, but that won't help them. The young Cornhuskers defense grew up against Illinois, and their freshman QB is hot. The Cornhuskers may have one of the youngest teams in the conference, but they're a tough bunch of youngsters. NEBRASKA by 24
Other Games of Interest
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies : Virginia Tech has played mostly close games since their opening massacre against Alabama, but they are a capable team. Pitt has been too inconsistent for me to believe they can succeed. VIRGINIA TECH by 16
Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars : Houston wants to maintain pace with Louisville in the American Athletic Conference, and this game will help much. Memphis just doesn't have the power this season. HOUSTON by 21
Western Carolina Catamounts at Auburn Tigers : It's a bit late in the season for an FBS v FCS match-up, but Auburn doesn't mind. With SEC play ongoing, teams will be losing, and therefore losing ground in division races. Auburn reaps the benefits from this game. AUBURN by 27
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ball State Cardinals : Kent State played Northern Illinois tough, but Ball State now has the warning, so I'm sure they'll be ready for whatever the Golden Flashes dish out. BALL STATE by 20
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at BYU Cougars : These two teams are fairly evenly matched. Georgia Tech's defense can hold back opponents, while BYU has a balanced attack that can keep opposing defenses guessing. The key to this game may be who outsmarts their opponent first. I'll go with the Yellow Jackets to do that, but watch our for BYU. GEORGIA TECH by four
GAME OF THE WEEK: #16 Northwestern Wildcats at #19 Wisconsin Badgers : Northwestern has NEVER been featured in two consecutive Games of the Week, but that shows how strong their program is this year. Their offense overpowered the Buckeyes defense for three quarters, and their defense forced three turnovers. Turnovers have been the bane of Wisconsin in the past, too, so the formula that had Northwestern lead Ohio State for over half a game should propel them past Wisconsin, too. NORTHWESTERN by nine
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