This week made up for last week, featuring some surprises and upsets. Virginia Tech woke up Thursday evening to start the week with a surprisingly dominant victory over Georgia Tech. That part of the country continued to provide shocking results Saturday, as West Virginia turned around their season and upset ninth-ranked Oklahoma State. Then East Carolina completely overwhelmed North Carolina and Western Kentucky outplayed Navy.
The surprises started moving west, as Iowa completely shut down previously unbeaten Minnesota (for the second consecutive year), Texas State manhandled Wyoming, and Arizona State ran all over USC.
Thursday games
We get multiple sports channels getting into the mid-week NCAA roulette, as Fox Sports 1 and CBS Sports join ESPN.
Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones : The Longhorns had better have spent their off week toughening up, because Texas has been a wimp so far this season. I think Mack Brown can do great things with his team, so they may be prepared to win this game, but if they slip up, the Cyclones could win. TEXAS by six
#7 UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes : The Bruins are a strong team, and certainly the favorite to win the Pac-12 South. This game is crucial to start their Pac-12 season strongly. UCLA by 18
Friday games
BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies : BYU has some talent, but the Aggies are a good team. They are on track to win their division and play in the inaugural Mountain West Championship Game. BYU isn't in the Mountain West anymore, so a loss wouldn't hurt that future, but it would do much to fracture their confidence. This team needs to keep winning, and they have the talent to do that. UTAH STATE by 13
Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs : It's a down year for the Aztecs, which gives Nevada a chance to shine. NEVADA by 16
Top 25
Georgia State Panthers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : Playing Georgia State is almost like playing a FCS team. That means Alabama should have no problem. ALABAMA by 30
#2 Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes : Colorado is playing a bit better than last season, but it's not enough to stay in the game against the high-powered Ducks offense. OREGON by 34
TCU Horned Frogs at #4 Oklahoma Sooners : TCU finds themselves in an unusual place - tied for last place in the Big XII. They want to improve, but they face a massive obstacle in the offensive power and defensive wall of the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 24
#22 Maryland Terrapins at #5 Florida State Seminoles : The Terrapins get their first real challenge of the season, facing the top team in the ACC. Both enter unbeaten, so only one will emerge that way. The Seminoles have a tendency to relax against opponents they believe they should beat; if they consider Maryland that way, they might lose. I'll pick the Seminoles, but watch out for a talented Terrapins team. FLORIDA STATE by ten
#6 Louisville Cardinals at Temple Owls : This should be an easy win for Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals. LOUISVILLE by 30
#8 LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs : LSU wants to recoup from their close loss to Georgia, and this is the chance to do that. LSU by 16
#15 Washington Huskies at #9 Stanford Cardinal : This game will likely determine who will compete with Oregon for the Pac-12 North title. Both teams are well-stocked on offense. Stanford has the edge in defense, so that should give them the edge in the game. STANFORD by nine
#11 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers : Georgia holds the edge in their division, having lost to no SEC team and showing power and competitiveness in all of their games. Tennessee can be tenacious, but I think the Georgia offense will exhaust them. GEORGIA by 17
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #12 Michigan Wolverines : Minnesota was embarrassed by Iowa last week, so they want a nice game to restore their confidence. I'm not sure they will get that. Michigan had an extra week to rest and prepare, and Minnesota's offensive game plan is fairly simple, so designing a defense to it shouldn't be difficult. MICHIGAN by 16
#13 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange : Syracuse has already shown how susceptible they are to a strong offense when Northwestern came calling. Clemson is even better, which will destroy the Orange. CLEMSON by 21
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #14 Miami Hurricanes : The Jackets want to rebound from their loss to the Hokies, so they'll be stiffing their defense. That will slow the Hurricanes, but the Miami defense will really make the difference. This will be a low-scoring game, but will go Miami's way. MIAMI by nine
Kentucky Wildcats at #16 South Carolina Gamecocks : Kentucky is struggling this season, so this should be a fairly easy win for the Gamecocks. SOUTH CAROLINA by 17
West Virginia Mountaineers at #18 Baylor Bears : Can West Virginia knock off their second Top 25 team in a row? Do I think they've turned themselves around that well? No, I don't. Baylor's offense is too strong; they will score quickly and often. BAYLOR by 27
Kansas State Wildcats at #20 Oklahoma State Cowboys : As far as the team West Virginia beat, they hope to regroup against a team that lost to FCS North Dakota State. K State got better after that, but then lost to struggling Texas. The Wildcats had last week off, so they might be able to reverse their slide again, as they did after the North Dakota State game. I'll pick the Cowboys, but the Wildcats might scratch out an upset. OKLAHOMA STATE by six
#21 UCF Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers : UCF played a solid game against South Carolina, so Memphis shouldn't give them much trouble. UCF by 20
#24 Fresno State Bulldogs at Idaho Vandals : Fresno State played too late in Hawaii; they let the Warriors start coming back in the third quarter. That won't happen in Idaho. FRESNO STATE by 24
#25 Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes : Kent State has had a fairly easy conference schedule -- that changes now. After this game they get Ball State. Look for Kent to lose them both. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indian Hoosiers : It should be a good couple of weeks for the Penn State faithful. Last week they found out that the NCAA will restore some of their scholarships early, and now this week they should gain an easy victory against the Hoosiers. PENN STATE by 20
Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers : Illinois has a potent offense, but their defense needs some work. If they can muster enough to slow Nebraska, they might outscore them. I'll pick the home team, but watch for an Illini win. NEBRASKA by four
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes : Prior to last week, I would have picked the Spartans. They still might win, but Iowa has momentum and their young guys have gained some valuable experience. IOWA by three
Other Games of Interest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks : Texas Tech gets to pad their Top 25 resume by beating up on poor Kansas. TEXAS TECH by 27
Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators : Arkansas can be dangerous, but Florida has talent. The biggest concern around the Gators is the health of QB Jeff Driskel. Tyler Murphy did okay his first start, but Kentucky is a significantly different team than Arkansas. The Gators will have a battle on their hands, and it could go against them. FLORIDA by six
Arizona State Sun Devils at Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish have lost steam on defense, and their offense isn't fast-moving, either. The Sun Devils have a potent offense. If they can avoid making mistakes (penalties and turnovers), they should beat the Irish. ARIZONA STATE by eight
Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores : Vandy has some punch, but Missouri is a strong team this season. They are the only unbeaten team in the SEC East, and they want to keep that advantage. MISSOURI by 18
GAME OF THE WEEK: #3 Ohio State Buckeyes at #17 Northwestern Wildcats : Ohio State's young defense showed holes against Wisconsin, so Northwestern saw some things they might be able to exploit. Urban Meyer is an excellent coach, and he surrounds himself with excellent coaches, so I suspect some of those holes will be filled, but expect the Wildcats to throw everything at Ohio State. OHIO STATE by six
Sunday, September 29, 2013
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 5
We had some exciting games, especially among Top 25 opponents. There was only one upset among the Top 25, as Oklahoma State tumbled. There were some surprising scores among the teams on the outskirts of the Top 25 - I'll discuss those in my picks column.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1] : The offense again started slowly, but they caught on in the second half. Their defense was staunch, shutting out Ole Miss and knocking them from the Top 25.
2. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [2] : The Ducks proved how weak Cal is this season, as they blew them away.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) [3] : The Buckeyes defense held onto a victory against a tenacious Wisconsin team.
4. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [8] : The Sooners bumped off the Irish and vaulted into the Top Five
5. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) [5] : Boston College gave them a battle, but the Seminoles came through
6. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [6]
7. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [7]
8. LSU Tigers (4-1) [4] : They fell to Georgia, but their offense was impressive. It takes a special defense to stop Georgia, and clearly LSU no longer has that special defense.
9. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [10] : Despite a late sympathy score, the Cardinal held Washington State to little offensive result, making you wonder which squad is better -- offense or defense?
10. Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) [12] : The Aggies won, but questions are starting to foment regarding their defense.
11. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) [13] : They've played nothing but close games, and they've beaten two Top Ten opponents. Those are characteristics of quality teams.
12. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [11]
13. Clemson Tigers (4-0) [18] : Another huge victory, as Tajh Boyd racks up four more touchdowns.
14. Miami Hurricanes (4-0) [14] : South Florida scored three touchdowns? Miami needs to tighten that defense a bit, or they may find themselves behind against teams like Clemson and Florida State.
15. Washington Huskies (4-0) [15] : Excellent battle against the Wildcats. Don't discount the Huskies in the Pac-12 title race.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1) [16] : Not an impressive win, but a win is a win in the stiff SEC
17. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) [17]
18. Baylor Bears (3-0) [19]
19. Wisconsin Badgers (3-2) [20] : They nearly tied the game late against Ohio State. They proved that they can put together a passing game, even if Jared Abbrederis is their only reliable receiver.
20. Oklahloma State Cowboys (3-1) [9] : The Cowboys were shocked by the Mountaineers, adding to their woes in the same week Sports Illustrated finishes a scathing expose about their program.
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-1) [21] : The Knights fell to the Gamecocks, but they made an exciting game of it. It was closer than most people expected, proving that my Top 25 placement (as I am the only Top 25 that I know of that had UCF in it) was not unwarranted.
22. Maryland Terrapins (4-0) [25]
23. Arizona Wildcats (3-2) [22] : Washington beat them big, but losses and poor performances by team below Arizona keep them in the Top 25 for another week.
24. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0) [NR] : They slaughtered Hawaii, but that's not so tough this season.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-0) [NR] : The Huskies are the first MAC team to beat two Big Ten teams in the regular season.
Dropped out: Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#23], Ole Miss Rebels [#24]
On the Edge: Florida Gators (3-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1), Missouri Tigers (4-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), Houston Cougars (4-0), Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Utah State Aggies (3-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1] : The offense again started slowly, but they caught on in the second half. Their defense was staunch, shutting out Ole Miss and knocking them from the Top 25.
2. Oregon Ducks (4-0) [2] : The Ducks proved how weak Cal is this season, as they blew them away.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) [3] : The Buckeyes defense held onto a victory against a tenacious Wisconsin team.
4. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [8] : The Sooners bumped off the Irish and vaulted into the Top Five
5. Florida State Seminoles (4-0) [5] : Boston College gave them a battle, but the Seminoles came through
6. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [6]
7. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [7]
8. LSU Tigers (4-1) [4] : They fell to Georgia, but their offense was impressive. It takes a special defense to stop Georgia, and clearly LSU no longer has that special defense.
9. Stanford Cardinal (4-0) [10] : Despite a late sympathy score, the Cardinal held Washington State to little offensive result, making you wonder which squad is better -- offense or defense?
10. Texas A&M Aggies (4-1) [12] : The Aggies won, but questions are starting to foment regarding their defense.
11. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) [13] : They've played nothing but close games, and they've beaten two Top Ten opponents. Those are characteristics of quality teams.
12. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [11]
13. Clemson Tigers (4-0) [18] : Another huge victory, as Tajh Boyd racks up four more touchdowns.
14. Miami Hurricanes (4-0) [14] : South Florida scored three touchdowns? Miami needs to tighten that defense a bit, or they may find themselves behind against teams like Clemson and Florida State.
15. Washington Huskies (4-0) [15] : Excellent battle against the Wildcats. Don't discount the Huskies in the Pac-12 title race.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1) [16] : Not an impressive win, but a win is a win in the stiff SEC
17. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) [17]
18. Baylor Bears (3-0) [19]
19. Wisconsin Badgers (3-2) [20] : They nearly tied the game late against Ohio State. They proved that they can put together a passing game, even if Jared Abbrederis is their only reliable receiver.
20. Oklahloma State Cowboys (3-1) [9] : The Cowboys were shocked by the Mountaineers, adding to their woes in the same week Sports Illustrated finishes a scathing expose about their program.
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-1) [21] : The Knights fell to the Gamecocks, but they made an exciting game of it. It was closer than most people expected, proving that my Top 25 placement (as I am the only Top 25 that I know of that had UCF in it) was not unwarranted.
22. Maryland Terrapins (4-0) [25]
23. Arizona Wildcats (3-2) [22] : Washington beat them big, but losses and poor performances by team below Arizona keep them in the Top 25 for another week.
24. Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0) [NR] : They slaughtered Hawaii, but that's not so tough this season.
25. Northern Illinois Huskies (4-0) [NR] : The Huskies are the first MAC team to beat two Big Ten teams in the regular season.
Dropped out: Notre Dame Fighting Irish [#23], Ole Miss Rebels [#24]
On the Edge: Florida Gators (3-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1), Missouri Tigers (4-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), Houston Cougars (4-0), Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Utah State Aggies (3-2), Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2), Arizona State Sun Devils (3-1)
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 4 Power Rankings and picks
My, we had some surprises this week! Baltimore found their power and pounded Houston. Carolina shut out the Giants to score their first victory of the season. Cincy out-battled Green Bay in an unusually terrible day for Aaron Rodgers, Cleveland shocked the Vikings, and the Dolphins knocked off Atlanta.
Some of these surprises inspired me to create a list of surprise teams, one for each record:
3-0 : I have to admit that Miami is my surprise unbeaten at this point. Tannehill showed flashes last year that he could be good, but he's been terrific! The defense harkens back to the No Name Defense days.
If I could put one SQUAD on this list, it would be the Chicago Bears defense. Check this out -- the Bears defense has scored FIVE touchdowns in three games. That's more than three NFL TEAMS have done! That would be impressive enough if the team needed the defense to score for them, but the offense isn't shabby, either, and the return team has scored three touchdowns of their own this season.
2-1 : Although the Tennessee Titans come close, I have to say the New York Jets. They looked shabby in preseason, and we were concerned just how well Geno Smith would play. Well, he's played well. The defense hasn't been outstanding, but they still cover opposing receivers well enough to break up plays and keep opponents from scoring on long pass plays.
1-2 : There are 11 teams at 1-2, so the winless teams are only two games back from playoff pace, not three. There are so many candidates here. I could pick Green Bay, but since they have a bye week, they can be my surprise 1-2 team next week. Atlanta is a candidate, but since they might lose to the Patriots on Sunday night, I'll save them for my surprise 1-3 team next week. That makes the San Francisco 49ers the 1-2 surprise team. The defending NFC champs have looked pathetic the past two weeks, allowing over 70 points while scoring only 10. Their vaulted defense looks slow and confused, and Colin Kapernick seems to have lost his magic. If they don't reverse this, they stand little chance of catching Seattle.
0-3 : Aside from the Jags and the Bucs, I would not have picked any of these teams to be winless at this point. The Giants and Vikings had some problems during preseason, and RGIII showed that his health might still be an issue, so I guess the biggest surprise would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, their preseason was no prize, either, but that's not too surprising for the Steelers. When the season begins, though, these guys bear down and get the job done. Well, normally they do. While they showed some spunk in the second half of the Bears game, the Steelers have mostly floundered. Most surprising has been the problems on defense, normally a very sturdy squad for this team.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (3-0) [1] : Owners of the best offense BY FAR (they're the only team to have scored over 100 points in the first three games, averaging over 40 points a game), they showed a running game on Monday night, too. This offense can't seem to be stopped, so the only teams who might beat them are teams who can score as quickly as they can (like Seattle or New Orleans) or teams who can score on either side of the ball (da Bears).
2. Seattle Seahawks (3-0) [2] : Speaking of those Seahawks, here they are. If you had asked me at the beginning of the season which NFC team would have allowed the fewest points through three games, I would have guessed San Francisco. Right division, wrong team. Seattle's offense is strong, and their defense is tops in the league.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) [3] : The offense has slowed slightly since their breakout Week 1, but this is still a fierce team -- just ask the Eagles.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-0) [4] : The Saints blew past a decent Cardinals defense to leapfrog over Miami for the fourth spot. The Saints have something to prove this year, hoping to wipe last year's debacle from everyone's memory. They're off to a good start.
5. Miami Dolphins (3-0) [4] : They beat Indy last week and Atlanta this week. That defense is stopping strong offenses, and Tannehill keeps getting better each week. This team continues to lead the AFC East, although the Patriots are improving.
6. New England Patriots (3-0) [7] : Speaking of those Pats, here they are! Tom Brady is starting to establish a rhythm with these new receivers. Once he does, this team may not miss all of the receivers they let go in the offseason. The defense looks sharp, but it's hard to be certain, as they have been fueled by a favorable schedule.
7. Chicago Bears (3-0) [9] : The only team to have scored 8 touchdowns from squads OTHER than the offense, this team is dangerous no matter WHO takes the field! The Steelers sealed up Brandon Marshall for most of the night, but Cutler and company still moved the ball. With the defense leading the league in takeaways and points scored, you can never really relax when you play the Bears.
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) [13] : The Cowboys came to life this week, as they slaughtered the Rams. This could mark the turnaround Jerry Jones was hoping for.
9. Indianapolis Colts (2-1) [18] : The Colts defense kept Kapernick down and the running game regained form, even if new acquisition Trent Richardson only gained 35 yards. Indy looks prepared for the long haul.
10. Detroit Lions (2-1) [11] : The Lions edged out Cincy for the final spot in the Top Ten with a shredding of Washington. Detroit didn't play great, but they exploited the health weaknesses of RGIII that Green Bay exposed last week.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego and Oakland faltered a bit this week, but this division still has two Top Five teams and all four teams are threats to win any game.
2. AFC East [2] : This division is surprisingly strong. They are the only division unbeaten against teams from outside the division, which means the only NFL teams who have proved capable of beating the AFC East is... the AFC East.
3. NFC North [3] : Big drop-off in strength from Number Two to here, and the Pack's loss didn't help. However, this division has only one team with a negative point differential (Minnesota) - only the AFC East can say the same.
4. NFC South [5] : The Panthers huge blowout against the Giants more than makes up for Atlanta's shocking upset loss. Now only the Bucs drag them down.
5. AFC South [6] : Houston lost big and fell from the Top Ten, but Indy and Tennessee have this division in line. Three teams at 2-1 looks good, but the cellar-dwelling Jags (last in both the division and the league) hurts them.
6. NFC West [4] : Everyone lost except Seattle, dropping this division. San Fran's offense looks like a joke, opening up an interesting match-up against the Rams this week.
7. AFC North [8] : Three wins and an impressive second half for Pittsburgh boosts this division up, but they need to find consistency from more than just the Bengals.
8. NFC East [7] : The only division with two winless teams, the Cowboys are the only good thing about this division (gee, I did not expect to say THAT anytime this season!)
Thursday game
San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams : Given their recent offensive woes, I was concerned that San Fran might lose this game, especially since St Louis went 1-0-1 against them last season. With Aldon Smith out, their pass rush defense takes a huge hit, giving Sam Bradford enough time to move the ball. The Rams can stumble in the red zone, but the Rams should move the ball better than the 49ers have been doing. RAMS, 17-13
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs are winless, but I don't think that'll last. Their offense is poor, but their defense is capable of taking control of a game (albeit not in the same way Chicago does). The Cards are susceptible to a stiff defense; the Saints proved that. This is the best chance for the Bucs to win their first game. BUCS, 13-10
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills : The Ravens have started looking like the defending Super Bowl champs. EJ Manuel lost the duel of rookie QBs last week, and he faces a tougher defense this week. RAVENS, 27-16
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions : Given the Bears tendency to cause turnovers, the Lions should be concerned. Their receivers have a history of bobbling the ball; if they do that, they may find the ball change hands. With Nate Burleson out due to his broken arm, things get dimmer. Detroit can score, but will the Bears defense make it too tough for them? BEARS, 30-24
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns : The Browns won their first game without Trent Richardson, but they had great incentive to prove the naysayers wrong. Take away that incentive, and the Browns are a mediocre team at best. Hoyer showed up well in his first game replacing Wheeden, but I don't think he can outplay the Bengals. BENGALS, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars : The Jags are the worst team in the league, so this should be a breeze for the Colts. COLTS, 31-10
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs : I don't think the Giants will be shut out this week, but they stand no chance against the hot Chiefs offense playing the way they have been. CHIEFS, 34-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings : The Steelers offense showed some life in the second half of the Bears game. Will that allow them to win their first game, or will that honor go to the Vikings? Someone will win their first game this season, and I like the Vikings' chances. The Steelers stuffed the box last week against the Bears and they still found ways to grind out yards. Give Adrian Peterson that chance, and he'll tear down the field. The Steelers will likely sack Christian Ponder at least three times, so the running game will be the Vikings' only option, but it'll be enough. VIKINGS, 21-13
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans : Houston was shocked by the Ravens last week, and now they encounter an even more dynamic offense. They will find themselves behind quickly, and Matt Schaub is not great at coming from behind. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers : The Titans slowed Philip Rivers and the Chargers, and the Cowboys defense is equally tough. This game will be close, and the Chargers could pull it out, but I have to favor the Cowboys in this bout. COWBOYS, 27-23
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans : Geno Smith is progressing well, and he's being helped by his defense, but the Titans are a bigger story. Jake Locker has suddenly come on, and he is reading the field much better. Smith still makes some mental mistakes, while Locker has been long enough to know what to do. TITANS, 21-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos : The fastest offense meets the second fastest offense, and Denver is doing better with it. This will be an offensive battle, but the Broncos have better tools than the Eagles. BRONCOS, 34-23
Washington Redskins at Oakland Redskins : Terrelle Pryor has looked pretty good, and he sparked two great drives in the late third quarter and fourth quarter on Monday night. The Redskins are still suffering as much as their ailing QB, so this is an excellent opportunity for Oakland to take control of a game, a position of power they love, but have been unable to reach this season. RAIDERS, 23-10
Sunday night
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons need a win, and they often get one in the regular season when they have to. This week, however, I'm not sure. The Patriots defense, knowing they need to give Brady time to gel with his new receivers, have really stiffened up. Atlanta's offense has been slightly off-kilter this season, which they must reverse. If they don't, the Pats defense will stuff them. PATRIOTS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints : The Dolphins love to shock unbeaten teams on Monday Night Football, and this time they come in unbeaten themselves. Despite that history, I like the Saints' chances. Their high-powered offense is back, Drew Brees looks more comfortable, and the Saints defense is as tough (if not slightly tougher) as the squad they had in their Super Bowl season. This is a solid team. SAINTS, 27-23
Some of these surprises inspired me to create a list of surprise teams, one for each record:
3-0 : I have to admit that Miami is my surprise unbeaten at this point. Tannehill showed flashes last year that he could be good, but he's been terrific! The defense harkens back to the No Name Defense days.
If I could put one SQUAD on this list, it would be the Chicago Bears defense. Check this out -- the Bears defense has scored FIVE touchdowns in three games. That's more than three NFL TEAMS have done! That would be impressive enough if the team needed the defense to score for them, but the offense isn't shabby, either, and the return team has scored three touchdowns of their own this season.
2-1 : Although the Tennessee Titans come close, I have to say the New York Jets. They looked shabby in preseason, and we were concerned just how well Geno Smith would play. Well, he's played well. The defense hasn't been outstanding, but they still cover opposing receivers well enough to break up plays and keep opponents from scoring on long pass plays.
1-2 : There are 11 teams at 1-2, so the winless teams are only two games back from playoff pace, not three. There are so many candidates here. I could pick Green Bay, but since they have a bye week, they can be my surprise 1-2 team next week. Atlanta is a candidate, but since they might lose to the Patriots on Sunday night, I'll save them for my surprise 1-3 team next week. That makes the San Francisco 49ers the 1-2 surprise team. The defending NFC champs have looked pathetic the past two weeks, allowing over 70 points while scoring only 10. Their vaulted defense looks slow and confused, and Colin Kapernick seems to have lost his magic. If they don't reverse this, they stand little chance of catching Seattle.
0-3 : Aside from the Jags and the Bucs, I would not have picked any of these teams to be winless at this point. The Giants and Vikings had some problems during preseason, and RGIII showed that his health might still be an issue, so I guess the biggest surprise would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, their preseason was no prize, either, but that's not too surprising for the Steelers. When the season begins, though, these guys bear down and get the job done. Well, normally they do. While they showed some spunk in the second half of the Bears game, the Steelers have mostly floundered. Most surprising has been the problems on defense, normally a very sturdy squad for this team.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (3-0) [1] : Owners of the best offense BY FAR (they're the only team to have scored over 100 points in the first three games, averaging over 40 points a game), they showed a running game on Monday night, too. This offense can't seem to be stopped, so the only teams who might beat them are teams who can score as quickly as they can (like Seattle or New Orleans) or teams who can score on either side of the ball (da Bears).
2. Seattle Seahawks (3-0) [2] : Speaking of those Seahawks, here they are. If you had asked me at the beginning of the season which NFC team would have allowed the fewest points through three games, I would have guessed San Francisco. Right division, wrong team. Seattle's offense is strong, and their defense is tops in the league.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) [3] : The offense has slowed slightly since their breakout Week 1, but this is still a fierce team -- just ask the Eagles.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-0) [4] : The Saints blew past a decent Cardinals defense to leapfrog over Miami for the fourth spot. The Saints have something to prove this year, hoping to wipe last year's debacle from everyone's memory. They're off to a good start.
5. Miami Dolphins (3-0) [4] : They beat Indy last week and Atlanta this week. That defense is stopping strong offenses, and Tannehill keeps getting better each week. This team continues to lead the AFC East, although the Patriots are improving.
6. New England Patriots (3-0) [7] : Speaking of those Pats, here they are! Tom Brady is starting to establish a rhythm with these new receivers. Once he does, this team may not miss all of the receivers they let go in the offseason. The defense looks sharp, but it's hard to be certain, as they have been fueled by a favorable schedule.
7. Chicago Bears (3-0) [9] : The only team to have scored 8 touchdowns from squads OTHER than the offense, this team is dangerous no matter WHO takes the field! The Steelers sealed up Brandon Marshall for most of the night, but Cutler and company still moved the ball. With the defense leading the league in takeaways and points scored, you can never really relax when you play the Bears.
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) [13] : The Cowboys came to life this week, as they slaughtered the Rams. This could mark the turnaround Jerry Jones was hoping for.
9. Indianapolis Colts (2-1) [18] : The Colts defense kept Kapernick down and the running game regained form, even if new acquisition Trent Richardson only gained 35 yards. Indy looks prepared for the long haul.
10. Detroit Lions (2-1) [11] : The Lions edged out Cincy for the final spot in the Top Ten with a shredding of Washington. Detroit didn't play great, but they exploited the health weaknesses of RGIII that Green Bay exposed last week.
Divisional ranks [Last week's position]
1. AFC West [1] : San Diego and Oakland faltered a bit this week, but this division still has two Top Five teams and all four teams are threats to win any game.
2. AFC East [2] : This division is surprisingly strong. They are the only division unbeaten against teams from outside the division, which means the only NFL teams who have proved capable of beating the AFC East is... the AFC East.
3. NFC North [3] : Big drop-off in strength from Number Two to here, and the Pack's loss didn't help. However, this division has only one team with a negative point differential (Minnesota) - only the AFC East can say the same.
4. NFC South [5] : The Panthers huge blowout against the Giants more than makes up for Atlanta's shocking upset loss. Now only the Bucs drag them down.
5. AFC South [6] : Houston lost big and fell from the Top Ten, but Indy and Tennessee have this division in line. Three teams at 2-1 looks good, but the cellar-dwelling Jags (last in both the division and the league) hurts them.
6. NFC West [4] : Everyone lost except Seattle, dropping this division. San Fran's offense looks like a joke, opening up an interesting match-up against the Rams this week.
7. AFC North [8] : Three wins and an impressive second half for Pittsburgh boosts this division up, but they need to find consistency from more than just the Bengals.
8. NFC East [7] : The only division with two winless teams, the Cowboys are the only good thing about this division (gee, I did not expect to say THAT anytime this season!)
Thursday game
San Francisco 49ers at St Louis Rams : Given their recent offensive woes, I was concerned that San Fran might lose this game, especially since St Louis went 1-0-1 against them last season. With Aldon Smith out, their pass rush defense takes a huge hit, giving Sam Bradford enough time to move the ball. The Rams can stumble in the red zone, but the Rams should move the ball better than the 49ers have been doing. RAMS, 17-13
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs are winless, but I don't think that'll last. Their offense is poor, but their defense is capable of taking control of a game (albeit not in the same way Chicago does). The Cards are susceptible to a stiff defense; the Saints proved that. This is the best chance for the Bucs to win their first game. BUCS, 13-10
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills : The Ravens have started looking like the defending Super Bowl champs. EJ Manuel lost the duel of rookie QBs last week, and he faces a tougher defense this week. RAVENS, 27-16
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions : Given the Bears tendency to cause turnovers, the Lions should be concerned. Their receivers have a history of bobbling the ball; if they do that, they may find the ball change hands. With Nate Burleson out due to his broken arm, things get dimmer. Detroit can score, but will the Bears defense make it too tough for them? BEARS, 30-24
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns : The Browns won their first game without Trent Richardson, but they had great incentive to prove the naysayers wrong. Take away that incentive, and the Browns are a mediocre team at best. Hoyer showed up well in his first game replacing Wheeden, but I don't think he can outplay the Bengals. BENGALS, 23-20
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars : The Jags are the worst team in the league, so this should be a breeze for the Colts. COLTS, 31-10
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs : I don't think the Giants will be shut out this week, but they stand no chance against the hot Chiefs offense playing the way they have been. CHIEFS, 34-13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings : The Steelers offense showed some life in the second half of the Bears game. Will that allow them to win their first game, or will that honor go to the Vikings? Someone will win their first game this season, and I like the Vikings' chances. The Steelers stuffed the box last week against the Bears and they still found ways to grind out yards. Give Adrian Peterson that chance, and he'll tear down the field. The Steelers will likely sack Christian Ponder at least three times, so the running game will be the Vikings' only option, but it'll be enough. VIKINGS, 21-13
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans : Houston was shocked by the Ravens last week, and now they encounter an even more dynamic offense. They will find themselves behind quickly, and Matt Schaub is not great at coming from behind. SEAHAWKS, 27-16
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers : The Titans slowed Philip Rivers and the Chargers, and the Cowboys defense is equally tough. This game will be close, and the Chargers could pull it out, but I have to favor the Cowboys in this bout. COWBOYS, 27-23
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans : Geno Smith is progressing well, and he's being helped by his defense, but the Titans are a bigger story. Jake Locker has suddenly come on, and he is reading the field much better. Smith still makes some mental mistakes, while Locker has been long enough to know what to do. TITANS, 21-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos : The fastest offense meets the second fastest offense, and Denver is doing better with it. This will be an offensive battle, but the Broncos have better tools than the Eagles. BRONCOS, 34-23
Washington Redskins at Oakland Redskins : Terrelle Pryor has looked pretty good, and he sparked two great drives in the late third quarter and fourth quarter on Monday night. The Redskins are still suffering as much as their ailing QB, so this is an excellent opportunity for Oakland to take control of a game, a position of power they love, but have been unable to reach this season. RAIDERS, 23-10
Sunday night
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons : The Falcons need a win, and they often get one in the regular season when they have to. This week, however, I'm not sure. The Patriots defense, knowing they need to give Brady time to gel with his new receivers, have really stiffened up. Atlanta's offense has been slightly off-kilter this season, which they must reverse. If they don't, the Pats defense will stuff them. PATRIOTS, 20-17
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints : The Dolphins love to shock unbeaten teams on Monday Night Football, and this time they come in unbeaten themselves. Despite that history, I like the Saints' chances. Their high-powered offense is back, Drew Brees looks more comfortable, and the Saints defense is as tough (if not slightly tougher) as the squad they had in their Super Bowl season. This is a solid team. SAINTS, 27-23
Sunday, September 22, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 5 picks
Almost no surprises last week. That doesn't mean my picks were perfect, but all but two of the losses were games that I figured could finish either way. The only real surprise was the awakening of Toledo, who has been quiet and slow to start this season, but burst open against Central Michigan.
Thurs Sept 26
Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : The Hokies are having a tough year so far, while Georgia Tech is strong. This could be a big year for the Yellow Jackets. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Fri Sept 27
Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans : Despite a 2-2 record, the Aggies are a strong team; their record is due to a strong slate of opponents. That preparation makes them dangerous as Mountain West play starts. UTAH STATE by 18
Top 25
#24 Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : We had only one game matching Top 25 teams last week -- this week we have six. This one won't be pretty, despite the Tide's closer games this season. ALABAMA by 13
California Golden Bears at #2 Oregon Ducks : The Ducks open Pac-12 play after a bye week. A well-rested Duck team moves even faster than normal (if that is humanly possible!); faster than Cal can match. OREGON by 27
#20 Wisconsin Badgers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes : Wisconsin played a great game last week, but they have to face the Buckeye defense. Worse, the Buckeye offense has power, and has enough talent on the bench that they can keep fresh players on the field. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles : BC has started well, but now they face the toughest ACC team this season (yes, Clemson fans, you read that correctly). This game could begin a BC slide. FLORIDA STATE by 30
#8 Oklahoma Sooners at #23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish have squeezed out a couple of victories, but they won't do that this week. Their defense isn't strong enough to slow the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 15
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers : Did the Cowboys really need an extra week for the Mountaineers? Oh yeah, this was scheduled back when West Virginia was a top team. Lucky Cowboys. OKLAHOMA STATE by 18
#10 Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars : The Cougars have started well, but now they enter the stiffer part of their schedule. Stanford has a better defense, and the offense can be tougher and faster. STANFORD by 13
#12 Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas slipped up this past week, which was not a good way to come into this challenge. Manziel had an off week last week, so you know he's looking to reverse that. A&M by 20
#14 Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls : South Florida is struggling, while Miami has power on both sides of the ball. This should be a pretty easy win for Miami. MIAMI by 31
#22 Arizona Wildcats at #15 Washington Huskies : Most experts are picking a Huskies landslide, but I'm not sure. Yes, Washington gets better every week, but Arizona had an extra week to prepare. Moreover, the Wildcats are no pushovers, so the Huskies should watch out! WASHINGTON by eight
#16 South Carolina Gamecocks at #21 UCF Golden Knights : UCF has blown away their previous opponents, but now they face the tough Gamecocks defense. This team has had an extra week to work out the kinks from both the Georgia and Vandy games. Give Steve Spurrier that much time and that much incentive, he will come up with a tough game plan. SOUTH CAROLINA by ten
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #18 Clemson Tigers : Wake isn't as strong as I thought they'd be this season, but they might be strong enough to upset Clemson. The Tigers have not looked as good as when they beat Georgia; could that become the highlight of their season? CLEMSON by nine
Big Ten
An unusual event happens this week, as most of the conference has bye weeks. It is rare for so many teams to have their bye in the same week.
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Illinois Fighting Illini : The Illini offense is working, but their defense still needs work. Fortunately, they face a team with practically no offense, so this should be an easy win. ILLINOIS by 23
Northern Illinois Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers : The Huskies had an extra week to prepare, but I'm not sure they needed it. Except for their battle against Notre Dame, the Boilermakers haven't really shown up well this season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers : This could be a fun game! Iowa has recovered from their near loss to Northern Illinois, but they've played close games until last week's blowout against Western Michigan. Minnesota has a strong team this year, so they are the clear favorite, but Iowa could prove spoiler. MINNESOTA by 18
Other Games of Interest
Wyoming Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats : The Cowboys are a strong team this year. They don't need this "gimmee" game, but they have it. WYOMING by 27
USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils : People are crying for Lane Kiffin's job, but the Trojans aren't doing too badly. In fact, I think they can win this game. The Sun Devils are too streaky. If the Trojans can prevent them from getting momentum, the Sun Devils won't win. USC by six
Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors : Hawaii is really struggling this season. Fresno State isn't doing great, but they should win this one. FRESNO STATE by 16
Thurs Sept 26
Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : The Hokies are having a tough year so far, while Georgia Tech is strong. This could be a big year for the Yellow Jackets. GEORGIA TECH by 13
Fri Sept 27
Utah State Aggies at San Jose State Spartans : Despite a 2-2 record, the Aggies are a strong team; their record is due to a strong slate of opponents. That preparation makes them dangerous as Mountain West play starts. UTAH STATE by 18
Top 25
#24 Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : We had only one game matching Top 25 teams last week -- this week we have six. This one won't be pretty, despite the Tide's closer games this season. ALABAMA by 13
California Golden Bears at #2 Oregon Ducks : The Ducks open Pac-12 play after a bye week. A well-rested Duck team moves even faster than normal (if that is humanly possible!); faster than Cal can match. OREGON by 27
#20 Wisconsin Badgers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes : Wisconsin played a great game last week, but they have to face the Buckeye defense. Worse, the Buckeye offense has power, and has enough talent on the bench that they can keep fresh players on the field. OHIO STATE by 16
#5 Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles : BC has started well, but now they face the toughest ACC team this season (yes, Clemson fans, you read that correctly). This game could begin a BC slide. FLORIDA STATE by 30
#8 Oklahoma Sooners at #23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : The Irish have squeezed out a couple of victories, but they won't do that this week. Their defense isn't strong enough to slow the Sooners. OKLAHOMA by 15
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers : Did the Cowboys really need an extra week for the Mountaineers? Oh yeah, this was scheduled back when West Virginia was a top team. Lucky Cowboys. OKLAHOMA STATE by 18
#10 Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars : The Cougars have started well, but now they enter the stiffer part of their schedule. Stanford has a better defense, and the offense can be tougher and faster. STANFORD by 13
#12 Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks : Arkansas slipped up this past week, which was not a good way to come into this challenge. Manziel had an off week last week, so you know he's looking to reverse that. A&M by 20
#14 Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls : South Florida is struggling, while Miami has power on both sides of the ball. This should be a pretty easy win for Miami. MIAMI by 31
#22 Arizona Wildcats at #15 Washington Huskies : Most experts are picking a Huskies landslide, but I'm not sure. Yes, Washington gets better every week, but Arizona had an extra week to prepare. Moreover, the Wildcats are no pushovers, so the Huskies should watch out! WASHINGTON by eight
#16 South Carolina Gamecocks at #21 UCF Golden Knights : UCF has blown away their previous opponents, but now they face the tough Gamecocks defense. This team has had an extra week to work out the kinks from both the Georgia and Vandy games. Give Steve Spurrier that much time and that much incentive, he will come up with a tough game plan. SOUTH CAROLINA by ten
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #18 Clemson Tigers : Wake isn't as strong as I thought they'd be this season, but they might be strong enough to upset Clemson. The Tigers have not looked as good as when they beat Georgia; could that become the highlight of their season? CLEMSON by nine
Big Ten
An unusual event happens this week, as most of the conference has bye weeks. It is rare for so many teams to have their bye in the same week.
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Illinois Fighting Illini : The Illini offense is working, but their defense still needs work. Fortunately, they face a team with practically no offense, so this should be an easy win. ILLINOIS by 23
Northern Illinois Huskies at Purdue Boilermakers : The Huskies had an extra week to prepare, but I'm not sure they needed it. Except for their battle against Notre Dame, the Boilermakers haven't really shown up well this season. NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 17
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers : This could be a fun game! Iowa has recovered from their near loss to Northern Illinois, but they've played close games until last week's blowout against Western Michigan. Minnesota has a strong team this year, so they are the clear favorite, but Iowa could prove spoiler. MINNESOTA by 18
Other Games of Interest
Wyoming Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats : The Cowboys are a strong team this year. They don't need this "gimmee" game, but they have it. WYOMING by 27
USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils : People are crying for Lane Kiffin's job, but the Trojans aren't doing too badly. In fact, I think they can win this game. The Sun Devils are too streaky. If the Trojans can prevent them from getting momentum, the Sun Devils won't win. USC by six
Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors : Hawaii is really struggling this season. Fresno State isn't doing great, but they should win this one. FRESNO STATE by 16
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 4
Many of the top teams performed meekly against FBS opponents. If this keeps up, it'll be a bit of a lackluster season. Hopefully we'll see more dynamic performances when more of the rivalry games kick in.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1] : A rather pedestrian attempt against Colorado State. They didn't have an offensive score until the second half.
2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [2]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [3] : Backup QB Kenny Guiton set a Buckeyes record with six passing touchdowns. Is there a quarterback controversy brewing in Columbus?
4. LSU Tigers (4-0) [4] : Auburn fought hard, but LSU won again
5. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) [5] : Easy win over FCS Bethune-Cookman
6. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [6] : Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals won the most impressive game of all Top Ten teams
7. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [12] : Beating up on lowly New Mexico State is no challenge, and QB Brett Hundley did not have a great day. The Bruins did well on third down, though, and their running game was hot.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [8]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [9]
10. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [15] : The Cardinal dominated Arizona State, preventing the Sun Devils from scoring in the first half. Stanford slacked off in the fourth quarter, allowing State to score three touchdowns, but Stanford clearly had the game under control.
11. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [7] : When is a win a Top 25 loss? When they barely beat UConn, a winless doormat. This was Michigan's second close shave in a row. QB Devin Gardner had a terrible game. If UConn was any better on third down, the Wolverines would have lost this game.
12. Texas A&M Aggies (3-1) [13] : Big win for the Aggies, but not so for Johnny Football. Manziel passed for less than 250 yards and only one touchdown. He was a better runner, gaining over 100 yards and rushing for two touchdowns.
13. Georgia Bulldogs (2-1) [11] : For three quarters it looked like North Texas might beat Georgia. They rolled for the final quarter and a half, but the Bulldogs took too long to get going. They'll suffer in SEC play if they don't get better.
14. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) [14]
15. Washington Huskies (3-0) [18] : They shut out a strong FCS team. When this team gets to Pac-12 play, it should get interesting.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) [16]
17. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) [17] : Northwestern led all the way, but they let Maine into the game in the fourth quarter.
18. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [10] : Tajh Boyd had a decent day, but questions can be raised regarding the Tigers defense after this game.
19. Baylor Bears (3-0) [20] : The Bears offense is roaring
20. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) [25] : The Badgers redeemed themselves after their unfair loss to Arizona State. Their running game is working well, but QB Joel Stave needs works.
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [21]
22. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [22]
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) [23] : The Irish squeezed out a victory against Michigan State, but only because the Spartans gave it away by committing so many costly penalties. The Irish still need work if they want to move up.
24. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
25. Maryland Terrapins (4-0) [26] : The Terrapins are hot. It'll be interesting to see how they fare when ACC play begins.
Dropped off: Michigan State Spartans [#19]
On the Edge: Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0), Wyoming Cowboys (3-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1), USC Trojans (3-1), Washington State Cougars (3-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-1), Utah State Aggies (2-2), North Texas Mean Green (2-2)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1] : A rather pedestrian attempt against Colorado State. They didn't have an offensive score until the second half.
2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [2]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) [3] : Backup QB Kenny Guiton set a Buckeyes record with six passing touchdowns. Is there a quarterback controversy brewing in Columbus?
4. LSU Tigers (4-0) [4] : Auburn fought hard, but LSU won again
5. Florida State Seminoles (3-0) [5] : Easy win over FCS Bethune-Cookman
6. Louisville Cardinals (4-0) [6] : Teddy Bridgewater and the Cardinals won the most impressive game of all Top Ten teams
7. UCLA Bruins (3-0) [12] : Beating up on lowly New Mexico State is no challenge, and QB Brett Hundley did not have a great day. The Bruins did well on third down, though, and their running game was hot.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [8]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [9]
10. Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [15] : The Cardinal dominated Arizona State, preventing the Sun Devils from scoring in the first half. Stanford slacked off in the fourth quarter, allowing State to score three touchdowns, but Stanford clearly had the game under control.
11. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [7] : When is a win a Top 25 loss? When they barely beat UConn, a winless doormat. This was Michigan's second close shave in a row. QB Devin Gardner had a terrible game. If UConn was any better on third down, the Wolverines would have lost this game.
12. Texas A&M Aggies (3-1) [13] : Big win for the Aggies, but not so for Johnny Football. Manziel passed for less than 250 yards and only one touchdown. He was a better runner, gaining over 100 yards and rushing for two touchdowns.
13. Georgia Bulldogs (2-1) [11] : For three quarters it looked like North Texas might beat Georgia. They rolled for the final quarter and a half, but the Bulldogs took too long to get going. They'll suffer in SEC play if they don't get better.
14. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) [14]
15. Washington Huskies (3-0) [18] : They shut out a strong FCS team. When this team gets to Pac-12 play, it should get interesting.
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) [16]
17. Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) [17] : Northwestern led all the way, but they let Maine into the game in the fourth quarter.
18. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [10] : Tajh Boyd had a decent day, but questions can be raised regarding the Tigers defense after this game.
19. Baylor Bears (3-0) [20] : The Bears offense is roaring
20. Wisconsin Badgers (3-1) [25] : The Badgers redeemed themselves after their unfair loss to Arizona State. Their running game is working well, but QB Joel Stave needs works.
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [21]
22. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [22]
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) [23] : The Irish squeezed out a victory against Michigan State, but only because the Spartans gave it away by committing so many costly penalties. The Irish still need work if they want to move up.
24. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0)
25. Maryland Terrapins (4-0) [26] : The Terrapins are hot. It'll be interesting to see how they fare when ACC play begins.
Dropped off: Michigan State Spartans [#19]
On the Edge: Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0), Wyoming Cowboys (3-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0), Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1), USC Trojans (3-1), Washington State Cougars (3-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-1), Utah State Aggies (2-2), North Texas Mean Green (2-2)
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 3 Power rankings and picks
It's early in the season, but there are some surprising unbeaten teams, including Miami and Chicago. Chicago has been relying on their defense to keep them close, and then having Jay Culter pull off fourth quarter comebacks. That formula might work, so long as their aging defense stays healthy.
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (2-0) [1] : They have the top offense by far, and Peyton is having one of his best years as a pro. This team looks like the New Orleans Saints the year they won the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle Seahawks (2-0) [8] : They manhandled San Francisco to show that they have the best defense in the league.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) [2] : Dallas slowed down their offense, but the team still tied their total win count from all of last season.
4. Miami Dolphins (2-0) [6] : They beat Indianapolis, for heaven's sake! Ryan Tannehill is turning into a true leader, and the defense is reminiscent of the "No Name Defense" days.
5. New Orleans Saints (2-0) [5] : Their offense sputtered a bit against Tampa Bay, but the true gem spurring this team's recovery is a tough defense.
6. Houston Texans (2-0) [10] : They won in overtime, but they let Tennessee do too much. This team may be ripe for faltering.
7. New England Patriots (2-0) [16] : Their offense doesn't look good, but they still find ways to win. Ultimately, that's what matters.
8. Green Bay Packers (1-1) [22] : They beat up Washington in a HUGELY one-sided game. It was actually not as close as the 18-point final margin shows, as the Pack slacked off in the fourth.
9. Chicago Beats (2-0) [11] : Their defense is the more consistent performer, but that's not surprising for Chicago. At least the offensive line is protecting Cutler better.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) [20] : Nice game against a struggling Steelers offense.
Divisional ranks
1. AFC West [1] : Two top ten teams and no teams with a negative point differential - that's a recipe for success. Oakland doesn't suck and San Diego can be dangerous, so there is no weak team in this division.
2. AFC East [3] : It's surprising to me that the division is so high, but EJ Manuel has the Bills looking good and Miami has started strong.
3. NFC North [4] : Two top ten teams and Detroit knocking on the door of the Top Ten makes this a tough division. Minnesota is the worst, and you still have to watch out for Adrian Peterson. If they can get a passing attack to spell him, the Vikings will come back.
4. NFC West [2] : Seattle looks great, but a poor performance by San Fran knocked them down. The 49ers will bounce back, and so will the division. Arizona looks like they can compete, so only the Rams may drag them down.
5. NFC South [6] : The Saints and Falcons are strong teams, especially with the revitalization of the Saints' defense. The Bucs defense slows teams, but they need an offense to go with it.
6. AFC South [4] : The Colts faltered this week. The Titans are actually the second best team in this division, but we don't know if that will last. The Jags are hopeless again, so this division is counting on the Colts improving.
7. NFC East [7] : Philly's offense is working, but their defense has holes. The Redskins defense is even worse, and RGIII still looks injured. The Giants have no running game, and so teams are keying on Eli Manning and his receivers, leading to the worst two-game stretch for interceptions in Manning's career. It seems strange to realize that the Cowboys are the most consistent team in this division.
8. AFC North [8] : Cleveland nearly beat the Ravens and the Steelers offense stinks! This has frequently been a strong division, but only the Bengals are showing any real potential so far this season.
Thursday's game
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles : Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia will a revitalized Chiefs team. This KC team looks nothing like last year's, as they have revamped both sides of the ball. The Eagles' offense works, but they rely on LeSean McCoy, and Reid knows how McCoy plays. You know he'll have his defense ready to slow him down. Slow down McCoy, and you slow down Chip Kelly's offense. The Chiefs offense will tear apart the Eagles defense, too. CHIEFS, 31-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints : The Cards have played well, but the Saints have a strong offense and a good defense. The Cards are tricky, so this might be a closer game than the Saints will expect, but I like the Saints chances to win. Tyrann Mathieu is coming along quickly, and Carson Palmer might engineer some fourth quarter magic, but I think the Saints defense will prevent the comeback. SAINTS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings : The Browns are sitting Brandon Wheeden, supposedly due to a thumb injury, and giving former Spartan Brian Hoyer a chance. Hoyer was decent in preseason, but he hasn't really faced first team NFL defenses. This will prove to be a bit of a challenge. The Browns defense will help by frustrating Christian Ponder, forcing the offense to rely on Adrian Peterson. That should be good enough to win. VIKINGS, 23-16
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins : RGIII clearly is still affected by his injury, as he cannot scramble well. That makes him a target for a good pass rushing defense. The Redskins defense has been allowing lots of yards, which is exactly what the Lions can produce. LIONS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals : Cincy beat Pittsburgh, but there were times when they seemed out of sync. The Pack showed their power against Washington, shaking off the struggles from playing San Francisco in Week 1. I think Aaron Rodgers will win the quarterback battle, but the Bengals will score, especially if the Pack slacks off in the fourth quarter like they did last week. PACK, 31-27
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens : Neither team has shown up brilliantly. The Texans let the Titans tie the game to send it into overtime, and the Ravens struggled against the Browns. Baltimore is susceptible to a tough defense, and that's what the Texans have. I like Houston's ability to control this game, even as the defending Super Bowl champs gain strength from the home crowd. TEXANS, 24-16
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers : The Panthers struggle in close games, but the offensive woes of the Giants makes me feel this will not be a close game. The Giants might start engineering a fourth quarter push, but they'll fall short. PANTHERS, 26-20
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans : The Titans showed up nicely against Houston last week, but the Chargers are buzzing from a great offensive battle against Philly. That game taught them some things, which they will apply to this game. The Chargers will move quickly for the Titans to counter. CHARGERS, 30-20
St Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys : The Rams are actually not bad, they just have trouble closing games. That's been a complaint of the Cowboys, too, but they proved in Week 1 that they are gaining that skill. Their defense fought hard against KC last week, so like them to stand against Sam Bradford and the Rams, too. COWBOYS, 27-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at New England Patriots : New England's offense is suffering, but they still find ways to win. They have had a favorable schedule to give their new offensive players time to get used to working with Tom Brady, and this is another one. The Bucs defense is strong, but their offense is equally suffering. PATS, 17-13
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins : Can the Dolphins continue their amazing 2013 and win a third game in a row? I'm not sure, but I think Ryan Tannehill will produce more yards than the Falcons would expect. The key will be whether the Dolphins defense can slow down Matt Ryan and his slate of quick receivers. They may start off well, but I fear the Dolphins defense will tire, allowing Ryan to engineer a second half comeback. FALCONS, 24-23
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets : The only two rookie starting quarterbacks face off. Geno Smith hasn't been bad, but EJ Manuel has breathed live back into the Bills. With the Jets defense suffering, I think the Bills will triumph over the Jets. BILLS, 23-13
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers : Miami's defense has shown the league how to hassle Andrew Luck. The 49ers is one of the few teams that probably didn't need that lesson, as their defense is good at harrassing most quarterbacks; only Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco seem to succeed. 49ERS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks : One of the top offenses in the league goes up against one of the worst. This result won't be tough to call. SEAHAWKS, 24-6
Sunday night
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers : Without a running game, the Steelers are setting up for the Bears secondary to cause turnovers, which they do very well. BEARS, 23-10
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos : Terrell Pryor is leading a feisty bunch of Raiders, but feisty won't be enough to overcome the productive offensive behemoth that is the Denver Broncos this season. BRONCOS, 31-23
Top Ten teams [Last week's position]
1. Denver Broncos (2-0) [1] : They have the top offense by far, and Peyton is having one of his best years as a pro. This team looks like the New Orleans Saints the year they won the Super Bowl.
2. Seattle Seahawks (2-0) [8] : They manhandled San Francisco to show that they have the best defense in the league.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) [2] : Dallas slowed down their offense, but the team still tied their total win count from all of last season.
4. Miami Dolphins (2-0) [6] : They beat Indianapolis, for heaven's sake! Ryan Tannehill is turning into a true leader, and the defense is reminiscent of the "No Name Defense" days.
5. New Orleans Saints (2-0) [5] : Their offense sputtered a bit against Tampa Bay, but the true gem spurring this team's recovery is a tough defense.
6. Houston Texans (2-0) [10] : They won in overtime, but they let Tennessee do too much. This team may be ripe for faltering.
7. New England Patriots (2-0) [16] : Their offense doesn't look good, but they still find ways to win. Ultimately, that's what matters.
8. Green Bay Packers (1-1) [22] : They beat up Washington in a HUGELY one-sided game. It was actually not as close as the 18-point final margin shows, as the Pack slacked off in the fourth.
9. Chicago Beats (2-0) [11] : Their defense is the more consistent performer, but that's not surprising for Chicago. At least the offensive line is protecting Cutler better.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) [20] : Nice game against a struggling Steelers offense.
Divisional ranks
1. AFC West [1] : Two top ten teams and no teams with a negative point differential - that's a recipe for success. Oakland doesn't suck and San Diego can be dangerous, so there is no weak team in this division.
2. AFC East [3] : It's surprising to me that the division is so high, but EJ Manuel has the Bills looking good and Miami has started strong.
3. NFC North [4] : Two top ten teams and Detroit knocking on the door of the Top Ten makes this a tough division. Minnesota is the worst, and you still have to watch out for Adrian Peterson. If they can get a passing attack to spell him, the Vikings will come back.
4. NFC West [2] : Seattle looks great, but a poor performance by San Fran knocked them down. The 49ers will bounce back, and so will the division. Arizona looks like they can compete, so only the Rams may drag them down.
5. NFC South [6] : The Saints and Falcons are strong teams, especially with the revitalization of the Saints' defense. The Bucs defense slows teams, but they need an offense to go with it.
6. AFC South [4] : The Colts faltered this week. The Titans are actually the second best team in this division, but we don't know if that will last. The Jags are hopeless again, so this division is counting on the Colts improving.
7. NFC East [7] : Philly's offense is working, but their defense has holes. The Redskins defense is even worse, and RGIII still looks injured. The Giants have no running game, and so teams are keying on Eli Manning and his receivers, leading to the worst two-game stretch for interceptions in Manning's career. It seems strange to realize that the Cowboys are the most consistent team in this division.
8. AFC North [8] : Cleveland nearly beat the Ravens and the Steelers offense stinks! This has frequently been a strong division, but only the Bengals are showing any real potential so far this season.
Thursday's game
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles : Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia will a revitalized Chiefs team. This KC team looks nothing like last year's, as they have revamped both sides of the ball. The Eagles' offense works, but they rely on LeSean McCoy, and Reid knows how McCoy plays. You know he'll have his defense ready to slow him down. Slow down McCoy, and you slow down Chip Kelly's offense. The Chiefs offense will tear apart the Eagles defense, too. CHIEFS, 31-20
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints : The Cards have played well, but the Saints have a strong offense and a good defense. The Cards are tricky, so this might be a closer game than the Saints will expect, but I like the Saints chances to win. Tyrann Mathieu is coming along quickly, and Carson Palmer might engineer some fourth quarter magic, but I think the Saints defense will prevent the comeback. SAINTS, 24-20
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings : The Browns are sitting Brandon Wheeden, supposedly due to a thumb injury, and giving former Spartan Brian Hoyer a chance. Hoyer was decent in preseason, but he hasn't really faced first team NFL defenses. This will prove to be a bit of a challenge. The Browns defense will help by frustrating Christian Ponder, forcing the offense to rely on Adrian Peterson. That should be good enough to win. VIKINGS, 23-16
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins : RGIII clearly is still affected by his injury, as he cannot scramble well. That makes him a target for a good pass rushing defense. The Redskins defense has been allowing lots of yards, which is exactly what the Lions can produce. LIONS, 34-20
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals : Cincy beat Pittsburgh, but there were times when they seemed out of sync. The Pack showed their power against Washington, shaking off the struggles from playing San Francisco in Week 1. I think Aaron Rodgers will win the quarterback battle, but the Bengals will score, especially if the Pack slacks off in the fourth quarter like they did last week. PACK, 31-27
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens : Neither team has shown up brilliantly. The Texans let the Titans tie the game to send it into overtime, and the Ravens struggled against the Browns. Baltimore is susceptible to a tough defense, and that's what the Texans have. I like Houston's ability to control this game, even as the defending Super Bowl champs gain strength from the home crowd. TEXANS, 24-16
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers : The Panthers struggle in close games, but the offensive woes of the Giants makes me feel this will not be a close game. The Giants might start engineering a fourth quarter push, but they'll fall short. PANTHERS, 26-20
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans : The Titans showed up nicely against Houston last week, but the Chargers are buzzing from a great offensive battle against Philly. That game taught them some things, which they will apply to this game. The Chargers will move quickly for the Titans to counter. CHARGERS, 30-20
St Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys : The Rams are actually not bad, they just have trouble closing games. That's been a complaint of the Cowboys, too, but they proved in Week 1 that they are gaining that skill. Their defense fought hard against KC last week, so like them to stand against Sam Bradford and the Rams, too. COWBOYS, 27-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at New England Patriots : New England's offense is suffering, but they still find ways to win. They have had a favorable schedule to give their new offensive players time to get used to working with Tom Brady, and this is another one. The Bucs defense is strong, but their offense is equally suffering. PATS, 17-13
Sunday late games
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins : Can the Dolphins continue their amazing 2013 and win a third game in a row? I'm not sure, but I think Ryan Tannehill will produce more yards than the Falcons would expect. The key will be whether the Dolphins defense can slow down Matt Ryan and his slate of quick receivers. They may start off well, but I fear the Dolphins defense will tire, allowing Ryan to engineer a second half comeback. FALCONS, 24-23
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets : The only two rookie starting quarterbacks face off. Geno Smith hasn't been bad, but EJ Manuel has breathed live back into the Bills. With the Jets defense suffering, I think the Bills will triumph over the Jets. BILLS, 23-13
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers : Miami's defense has shown the league how to hassle Andrew Luck. The 49ers is one of the few teams that probably didn't need that lesson, as their defense is good at harrassing most quarterbacks; only Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco seem to succeed. 49ERS, 27-23
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks : One of the top offenses in the league goes up against one of the worst. This result won't be tough to call. SEAHAWKS, 24-6
Sunday night
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers : Without a running game, the Steelers are setting up for the Bears secondary to cause turnovers, which they do very well. BEARS, 23-10
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos : Terrell Pryor is leading a feisty bunch of Raiders, but feisty won't be enough to overcome the productive offensive behemoth that is the Denver Broncos this season. BRONCOS, 31-23
Sunday, September 15, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 4 picks
There were fewer upsets and major surprises, and once again a FCS team beat a FBS team. In fact, Bethune-Cookman didn't just BEAT Florida International, they slaughtered them! Maybe Florida International can bounce back as well as Oregon State has, as they shocked Utah with an overtime victory.
This was a tough week for the MAC, as two early favorites suffered tough losses. North Texas knocked off Ball State, and Bowling Green was completely dominated by Indiana. Another Big Ten team was the one BEING dominated, as UCLA crushed Nebraska.
Will we see more surprises this week? Probably, but I'm not sure where. I've identified a few potential surprises, but does anticipating them mean they are no longer a surprise?
Thurs Sept 19
#10 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack : Clemson has been quiet since their defeat of Georgia, but they get another national audience. Expect the Tigers to make the most of that, and put together another dominant victory. CLEMSON by 20
Fri Sept 20
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs : Boise State played a great game on Saturday, seemingly healed from their loss to Washington (who has shown that the win over Boise State was no fluke). However, Fresno State has been playing well, and they (unintentionally) got a week to rest, as the floods in Colorado postponed their game against the Buffaloes. That break will make them hungry, so expect them to feast on bronco burgers. FRESNO STATE by eleven
Top 25
Colorado State Rams at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : While the team could relax TOO much after their win over Texas A&M, Nick Saban won't let these guys let down. The Tide will roll! ALABAMA by 30
Florida A&M Rattlers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes : Well, a win here won't help the Buckeyes' stats, but it'll be a good game for their new defensive players to gain experience. OHIO STATE by lots
Auburn Tigers at #4 LSU Tigers : These Auburn v LSU games are frequently slug fests. It hasn't been the past couple of seasons, when Auburn was struggling. Auburn is looking better, so they'll give LSU a battle, but LSU has too many tools to lose this one. LSU by 13
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at #5 Florida State Seminoles : The Seminoles are used to playing BC, but that BC is usually Boston College. The Wildcats shocked one FBS team from Florida last week, but they won't repeat that action. FLORIDA STATE by 18
Florida International Golden Panthers at #5 Louisville Cardinals : Florida International might be hoping for a chance to redeem themselves after their loss to Bethune-Cookman, but they won't get it. Louisville and Teddy Bridgewater want a strong game after a slow start last week, and picking apart the Panthers is a great way to do that. LOUISVILLE by 24
#7 Michigan Wolverines at UConn Huskies : Michigan faltered against Akron, but I think that game will wake them up. The Wolverines need to toughen up, knowing they have some stiff competition starting next week when Big Ten conference play begins. MICHIGAN by 17
North Texas Mean Green at #11 Georgia Bulldogs : North Texas played a great game last week, but they face a much tougher opponent this week. Georgia may be surprised by the power of the Mean Green, but the Bulldogs will still prevail. GEORGIA by 20
New Mexico State Aggies at #12 UCLA Bruins : Easy home win for the Bruins. UCLA by 27
SMU Mustangs at #13 Texas A&M Aggies : Given what the Aggies showed against Alabama, there are few defenses that can slow them, and SMU is not one of them. TEXAS A&M by 31
Savannah State Tigers at #14 Miami Hurricanes : Another easy FCS v FBS match-up, especially since the Hurricanes had a bye week leading into this. MIAMI by lots
Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Stanford Cardinal : The Sun Devils shocked Wisconsin, but the Badgers aren't a great night team. Stanford is used to it, so game time won't be an issue. This game may be close, but the Cardinal should pull this out. STANFORD by 12
Maine Black Bears at #17 Northwestern Wildcats : Maine is a tough FCS team, but beating the Wildcats would be a major upset. I don't see it, giving the strong offense that Northwestern has exhibited. NORTHWESTERN by 17
Idaho State Bengals at #18 Washington Huskies : Another FCS v FBS match-up; little chance for an upset. With Washington's offense, this could be a huge blowout. WASHINGTON by lots
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at #20 Baylor Bears : Did Baylor really need a bye week to prepare for this one? Strange scheduling. BAYLOR by 26
Purdue Boilermakers at #25 Wisconsin Badgers : The Badgers start Big Ten play early, and they come in committed to showing up strongly after a shocking development in Arizona. Purdue can strike fast, as they showed against Notre Dame, but they also showed that they are susceptible to strong offenses -- they wear them down. WISCONSIN by ten
Big Ten
San Jose State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Minnesota looks great. Their opposition hasn't been too tough, so this game will really prove whether Minnesota is for real. MINNESOTA by 16
Western Michigan Broncos at Iowa Hawkeyes : The Broncos haven't shown up too strongly this season, especially against Big Ten teams. Iowa isn't stellar, but I think they can edge past a struggling Western Michigan squad. IOWA by four
South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Nebraska Cornhuskers : South Dakota State is unbeaten and a strong team. Could this be another FCS upset? Maybe, but I don't think so. Nebraska had some holes exposed this past week, so they'll work to fill them this week. NEBRASKA by 16
Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions :Penn State faltered this week, which will only make them more determined this week. Kent State might have had a chance to sneak past them, but not now. PENN STATE by 20
Missouri Tigers at Indiana Hoosiers : When I predicted this season, I figured this would be an easy win for Missouri. The Tigers have started slowly, though, and Indiana is a force. Believe it or not, I'm going for the upset here. INDIANA by four
Other Games of Interest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : I'm switching my thoughts on this game, too. The Tar Heels have been mediocre, while the Yellow Jackets have been playing well. The bye week may have helped North Carolina, but playing this past week may have boosted the confidence of Tech. I'll pick them, but this game could go either way. GEORGIA TECH by three
Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans : The Aggies are a good team, but the Trojans are playing well. Many teams have found it hard to beat USC in the Coliseum, and the Aggies will face that now. USC by 20
West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins : Maryland frequently starts well, but falters in ACC play. They start conference play next week, and they want a solid win going into it. The Mountaineers have not looked good so far, and Maryland will take advantage of their weakness. MARYLAND by 12
Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Arkansas is playing very well. So is Rutgers, but not at the same level. ARKANSAS by 18
Texas State Bobcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders : The Red Raiders should have no problem rolling over the Bobcats. TEXAS TECH by 34
GAME OF THE WEEK:
#19 Michigan State Spartans at #23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : Given how the Irish came back last week, the Itish could have turned a page and found themselves. The Spartans have played rather conservatively in the past three weeks, but playing Notre Dame will spur them to fight. I favor the Spartans, but this game could swing the other way. MICHIGAN STATE by eight
This was a tough week for the MAC, as two early favorites suffered tough losses. North Texas knocked off Ball State, and Bowling Green was completely dominated by Indiana. Another Big Ten team was the one BEING dominated, as UCLA crushed Nebraska.
Will we see more surprises this week? Probably, but I'm not sure where. I've identified a few potential surprises, but does anticipating them mean they are no longer a surprise?
Thurs Sept 19
#10 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack : Clemson has been quiet since their defeat of Georgia, but they get another national audience. Expect the Tigers to make the most of that, and put together another dominant victory. CLEMSON by 20
Fri Sept 20
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs : Boise State played a great game on Saturday, seemingly healed from their loss to Washington (who has shown that the win over Boise State was no fluke). However, Fresno State has been playing well, and they (unintentionally) got a week to rest, as the floods in Colorado postponed their game against the Buffaloes. That break will make them hungry, so expect them to feast on bronco burgers. FRESNO STATE by eleven
Top 25
Colorado State Rams at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide : While the team could relax TOO much after their win over Texas A&M, Nick Saban won't let these guys let down. The Tide will roll! ALABAMA by 30
Florida A&M Rattlers at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes : Well, a win here won't help the Buckeyes' stats, but it'll be a good game for their new defensive players to gain experience. OHIO STATE by lots
Auburn Tigers at #4 LSU Tigers : These Auburn v LSU games are frequently slug fests. It hasn't been the past couple of seasons, when Auburn was struggling. Auburn is looking better, so they'll give LSU a battle, but LSU has too many tools to lose this one. LSU by 13
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at #5 Florida State Seminoles : The Seminoles are used to playing BC, but that BC is usually Boston College. The Wildcats shocked one FBS team from Florida last week, but they won't repeat that action. FLORIDA STATE by 18
Florida International Golden Panthers at #5 Louisville Cardinals : Florida International might be hoping for a chance to redeem themselves after their loss to Bethune-Cookman, but they won't get it. Louisville and Teddy Bridgewater want a strong game after a slow start last week, and picking apart the Panthers is a great way to do that. LOUISVILLE by 24
#7 Michigan Wolverines at UConn Huskies : Michigan faltered against Akron, but I think that game will wake them up. The Wolverines need to toughen up, knowing they have some stiff competition starting next week when Big Ten conference play begins. MICHIGAN by 17
North Texas Mean Green at #11 Georgia Bulldogs : North Texas played a great game last week, but they face a much tougher opponent this week. Georgia may be surprised by the power of the Mean Green, but the Bulldogs will still prevail. GEORGIA by 20
New Mexico State Aggies at #12 UCLA Bruins : Easy home win for the Bruins. UCLA by 27
SMU Mustangs at #13 Texas A&M Aggies : Given what the Aggies showed against Alabama, there are few defenses that can slow them, and SMU is not one of them. TEXAS A&M by 31
Savannah State Tigers at #14 Miami Hurricanes : Another easy FCS v FBS match-up, especially since the Hurricanes had a bye week leading into this. MIAMI by lots
Arizona State Sun Devils at #15 Stanford Cardinal : The Sun Devils shocked Wisconsin, but the Badgers aren't a great night team. Stanford is used to it, so game time won't be an issue. This game may be close, but the Cardinal should pull this out. STANFORD by 12
Maine Black Bears at #17 Northwestern Wildcats : Maine is a tough FCS team, but beating the Wildcats would be a major upset. I don't see it, giving the strong offense that Northwestern has exhibited. NORTHWESTERN by 17
Idaho State Bengals at #18 Washington Huskies : Another FCS v FBS match-up; little chance for an upset. With Washington's offense, this could be a huge blowout. WASHINGTON by lots
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at #20 Baylor Bears : Did Baylor really need a bye week to prepare for this one? Strange scheduling. BAYLOR by 26
Purdue Boilermakers at #25 Wisconsin Badgers : The Badgers start Big Ten play early, and they come in committed to showing up strongly after a shocking development in Arizona. Purdue can strike fast, as they showed against Notre Dame, but they also showed that they are susceptible to strong offenses -- they wear them down. WISCONSIN by ten
Big Ten
San Jose State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Minnesota looks great. Their opposition hasn't been too tough, so this game will really prove whether Minnesota is for real. MINNESOTA by 16
Western Michigan Broncos at Iowa Hawkeyes : The Broncos haven't shown up too strongly this season, especially against Big Ten teams. Iowa isn't stellar, but I think they can edge past a struggling Western Michigan squad. IOWA by four
South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Nebraska Cornhuskers : South Dakota State is unbeaten and a strong team. Could this be another FCS upset? Maybe, but I don't think so. Nebraska had some holes exposed this past week, so they'll work to fill them this week. NEBRASKA by 16
Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions :Penn State faltered this week, which will only make them more determined this week. Kent State might have had a chance to sneak past them, but not now. PENN STATE by 20
Missouri Tigers at Indiana Hoosiers : When I predicted this season, I figured this would be an easy win for Missouri. The Tigers have started slowly, though, and Indiana is a force. Believe it or not, I'm going for the upset here. INDIANA by four
Other Games of Interest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets : I'm switching my thoughts on this game, too. The Tar Heels have been mediocre, while the Yellow Jackets have been playing well. The bye week may have helped North Carolina, but playing this past week may have boosted the confidence of Tech. I'll pick them, but this game could go either way. GEORGIA TECH by three
Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans : The Aggies are a good team, but the Trojans are playing well. Many teams have found it hard to beat USC in the Coliseum, and the Aggies will face that now. USC by 20
West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins : Maryland frequently starts well, but falters in ACC play. They start conference play next week, and they want a solid win going into it. The Mountaineers have not looked good so far, and Maryland will take advantage of their weakness. MARYLAND by 12
Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights : Arkansas is playing very well. So is Rutgers, but not at the same level. ARKANSAS by 18
Texas State Bobcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders : The Red Raiders should have no problem rolling over the Bobcats. TEXAS TECH by 34
GAME OF THE WEEK:
#19 Michigan State Spartans at #23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish : Given how the Irish came back last week, the Itish could have turned a page and found themselves. The Spartans have played rather conservatively in the past three weeks, but playing Notre Dame will spur them to fight. I favor the Spartans, but this game could swing the other way. MICHIGAN STATE by eight
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 3
It wasn't a great week for the Big Ten, as several teams struggled or faltered. Michigan was saved due to bye weeks by many of the teams below them.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) [1] : Their vaulted defense had trouble containing A&M in the fourth quarter, but they were getting tired. A little more conditioning and this team may be unbeatable
2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [4] : Chip who? This team has lost little steam as they steamroll another huge victory
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) [2] : Their defense allowed Cal to score too much, and defense is their strength. They showed that their offense can still produce without Braxton Miller.
4. LSU Tigers (3-0) [5] : Strong on both sides of the ball, this is the only SEC team that hasn't shown vulnerabilities, and is now Alabama's chief threat.
5. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) [8] : Holy cow, look at this offense! The Seminoles are a beast when they hold the ball, and their defense is no slacker, either.
6. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) [6] : It took a little while before Teddy Bridgewater got going. He can't do that against teams with a strong defense.
7. Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [7] : They were one goal-line stand away from losing to Akron, a team who has a total of four victories over the past three years. Their defense has holes, and those had better be mended before they face the offenses of Northwestern, Nebraska, and even Minnesota and Indiana.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [18] : HUGE jump for the Sooners, whose offense finally woke up and marched all over Tulsa.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [9] : Played a weakling FCS team. Not much to say this week
10. Clemson Tigers (2-0) [10]
11. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) [11]
12. UCLA Bruins (2-0) [15] : Impressive offensive performance by the Bruins. While it is too early still, there are rumblings of Heisman for QB Brett Hundley. Of course, they wouldn't have won if their defense didn't tighten, keeping Nebraska scoreless in the second half.
13. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) [16] : Two interceptions proved that Johnny Football has flaws, but that offense still moved against a tough defense. Against any other team, the Aggies would have won that game.
14. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) [14]
15. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) [17] : Army scored entirely too much against the Cardinal. What will their defense do against powerful Pac-12 offenses like Washington, Arizona State, and (of course) Oregon?
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) [12] : They may have beaten Vandy, but it was an ugly win that was more complementary to the Commodores than the Gamecocks.
17. Northwestern Wildcats (3-0) [21] : Watch out for the Wildcats. Here was the Big Ten team with the most impressive performance this week. Okay, that's not saying much. Let's just say they had the easiest time against their MAC opponent than any other Big Ten team.
18. Washington Huskies (2-0) [22] : Nice win over my Alma Mater. The Huskies have an offense.
19. Michigan State Spartans (3-0) [19]
20. Baylor Bears (2-0) [20]
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [24] : Close game against Penn State, but they showed spunk and power. This team can compete against BCS big boys.
22. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [25} : Beating up lowly UTSA isn't impressive, but how their offense rolled was impressive.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) [23] : Purdue handed them everything they could handle. The Irish have definitely lost punch from last year.
24. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) [NR] : Our only new team to the Top 25 (a rarity in Week 3), the Rebs proved that Texas has withered and that a new power has emerged in the SEC.
25. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) [3] : Poor defense and a struggling offense, they couldn't get their strength (running game) established. Due to field position or deficit, they were forced to pass too much. If the defense gives them a chance, this team can still shine.
Dropped off: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#13]
On the Edge Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0), Maryland Terrapins (3-0), Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0), Auburn Tigers (3-0), USC Trojans (2-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackers (2-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0), Utah State Aggies (2-1), North Texas Mean Green (2-1)
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) [1] : Their vaulted defense had trouble containing A&M in the fourth quarter, but they were getting tired. A little more conditioning and this team may be unbeatable
2. Oregon Ducks (3-0) [4] : Chip who? This team has lost little steam as they steamroll another huge victory
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) [2] : Their defense allowed Cal to score too much, and defense is their strength. They showed that their offense can still produce without Braxton Miller.
4. LSU Tigers (3-0) [5] : Strong on both sides of the ball, this is the only SEC team that hasn't shown vulnerabilities, and is now Alabama's chief threat.
5. Florida State Seminoles (2-0) [8] : Holy cow, look at this offense! The Seminoles are a beast when they hold the ball, and their defense is no slacker, either.
6. Louisville Cardinals (3-0) [6] : It took a little while before Teddy Bridgewater got going. He can't do that against teams with a strong defense.
7. Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [7] : They were one goal-line stand away from losing to Akron, a team who has a total of four victories over the past three years. Their defense has holes, and those had better be mended before they face the offenses of Northwestern, Nebraska, and even Minnesota and Indiana.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [18] : HUGE jump for the Sooners, whose offense finally woke up and marched all over Tulsa.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [9] : Played a weakling FCS team. Not much to say this week
10. Clemson Tigers (2-0) [10]
11. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) [11]
12. UCLA Bruins (2-0) [15] : Impressive offensive performance by the Bruins. While it is too early still, there are rumblings of Heisman for QB Brett Hundley. Of course, they wouldn't have won if their defense didn't tighten, keeping Nebraska scoreless in the second half.
13. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) [16] : Two interceptions proved that Johnny Football has flaws, but that offense still moved against a tough defense. Against any other team, the Aggies would have won that game.
14. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) [14]
15. Stanford Cardinal (2-0) [17] : Army scored entirely too much against the Cardinal. What will their defense do against powerful Pac-12 offenses like Washington, Arizona State, and (of course) Oregon?
16. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-1) [12] : They may have beaten Vandy, but it was an ugly win that was more complementary to the Commodores than the Gamecocks.
17. Northwestern Wildcats (3-0) [21] : Watch out for the Wildcats. Here was the Big Ten team with the most impressive performance this week. Okay, that's not saying much. Let's just say they had the easiest time against their MAC opponent than any other Big Ten team.
18. Washington Huskies (2-0) [22] : Nice win over my Alma Mater. The Huskies have an offense.
19. Michigan State Spartans (3-0) [19]
20. Baylor Bears (2-0) [20]
21. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [24] : Close game against Penn State, but they showed spunk and power. This team can compete against BCS big boys.
22. Arizona Wildcats (3-0) [25} : Beating up lowly UTSA isn't impressive, but how their offense rolled was impressive.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) [23] : Purdue handed them everything they could handle. The Irish have definitely lost punch from last year.
24. Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) [NR] : Our only new team to the Top 25 (a rarity in Week 3), the Rebs proved that Texas has withered and that a new power has emerged in the SEC.
25. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) [3] : Poor defense and a struggling offense, they couldn't get their strength (running game) established. Due to field position or deficit, they were forced to pass too much. If the defense gives them a chance, this team can still shine.
Dropped off: Nebraska Cornhuskers [#13]
On the Edge Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0), Maryland Terrapins (3-0), Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0), Auburn Tigers (3-0), USC Trojans (2-1), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackers (2-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0), Utah State Aggies (2-1), North Texas Mean Green (2-1)
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 2 Power Rankings and picks
Like most years, the first year of the season had its pleasant surprises and its disappointments. For me, one of the nicest surprises was the Chicago Bears' offensive line. One of their worst features over the past couple of years, they were a solid unit this weekend. If they can stay healthy, that bodes well for the Bears.
We wondered how Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense would work in the NFL, and the results are mixed. It was highly successful in the first half, but Washington began to figure out some moves against it over halftime. It may require some tweaking, but there may be potential there.
Other nice surprises: the power of the Broncos' offense, the Saints finding a defense, Terrelle Pryor taking over the Raiders offense from Darren McFadden, EJ Manuel looking like he can lead the Bills, and the strength of the Seahawks' defense.
There were some disappointments, too. The Patriots obviously ransacked their passing attack too much over the preseason. Both the Bucs and Giants made too many mistakes - the Bucs committed too many penalties and the Giants committed too many turnovers. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III looked sluggish in their openers, and the Steelers looked absolutely pathetic!
Picking power rankings is always tough for the first couple of weeks, because we haven't seen enough of the teams to judge opponent's strength. Expect these positions to change, but we can start the season with the following power rankings:
Top Ten Teams
1. Denver Broncos (1-0) : The Broncos manhandled the defending Super Bowl Champs. Their offense hasn't lost a beat; if anything, it improved. The defense showed quickness and versatility, too.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) : This franchise was practically completely remade in the off-season, but it's proving worthwhile. While they played Jacksonville, who is likely to be the worst team in the league, they showed consistent ability to move the ball.
3. Detroit Lions (1-0) : Their defense locked down after allowing Adrian Peterson a long touchdown to start the game, and the offense moved smoothly most of the time. They could be much better than we expected.
4. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) : The Pack pushed them hard, but in the end the 49ers proved that their game plan was a winner.
5. New Orleans Saints (1-0) : They threw everything at Atlanta, and they flinched. More impressively, the Saints have a defense again, for the first time since their Super Bowl run!
6. Miami Dolphins (1-0) : Okay, so they played Cleveland, but their offense ran much smoothly than last season.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) : Chip Kelly's offense worked, at least for two and a half quarters. It might prove a boon this season, especially if RGIII can't return to full physical shape.
8. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) : The offense moved slowly, but the defense is tough as nails.
9. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) : Oakland proved tougher than they thought, but Andrew Luck remained poised. If teams can't rattle him, he'll just get better.
10. Houston Texans (1-0) : A truly amazing comeback in the fourth quarter! This team bears down when it matters most!
Divisional ranks
1. AFC West : This West division has the top two teams in the league, not the NFC West, and Oakland and San Diego weren't shabby, either.
2. NFC West : Three teams won this week, and Arizona kept it close. San Fran and Seattle are not on the top of the league's Power Rankings yet, but their division is getting there.
3. AFC East : Three teams won this week, and Buffalo only lost by two. This division is starting out pretty good.
4 (tie). NFC North : Only two teams won, but nobody looked poor. This division has potential to improve their position.
4 (tie). AFC South : Three teams won, but Jacksonville is dragging this division down.
6. NFC South : The Saints were the only team who won, and the Bucs and Panthers looked sickly.
7. NFC East : Philly looked good, but Dallas' performance was skewed due to the Giants' mistakes. Washington took too long to get going, and RGIII looked tentative.
8. AFC North : Not a single winner in the first week! This division can only move up, and I think they will.
Thursday's game
New York Jets at New England Patriots : Geno Smith did fairly well in his NFL debut, and the Patriots showed that their passing game has been stripped. However, Brady will keep working with his receivers, and the Patriots defense will hold back the Jets. PATS, 23-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills : I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm picking the Bills for the upset. Cam Newton and company certainly could win, but I think EJ Manual and his gang started something last week. BILLS, 23-16
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens : The Browns are yet to beat the Ravens, and that will continue. Brandon Wheeden was pathetic last week. The Ravens defense had trouble holding back Peyton's offense, but this one will be easy to stop. RAVENS, 23-10
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs : The Chiefs have some offensive power. It's hard to know how good their defense is, because they didn't have to work too hard last week. But their offense alone is capable of bringing down the Cowboys. CHIEFS, 34-24
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts : Miami had the run of the game last week, but that was against Brandon Wheeden and the weakling Browns. Against the Colts, it will be another story, and it won't have a happy ending for Fins fans. COLTS, 27-16
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears : The Vikes burned the Bears last year, but after his initial breakaway run last week, Adrian Petersen was held in check pretty well. When you also consider that Christian Ponder threw three interceptions last week, and the Bears capitalize on turnovers, I have to favor the Bears and their rebuilt offensive line. BEARS, 27-24
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles :If the Eagles offense comes out firing like they did in the first half of last week's game, they'll establish a big lead. If the Chargers defense can adjust at halftime like the Redskins did, the Chargers are capable of coming back. This game may hinge on how much of a lead the Eagles establish and whether the Chargers defense can hold them back well enough. I think the Chargers might fall short, but they might not. EAGLES, 30-27
St Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons : The Rams might hold back the Falcons for a little while, but that offense is too strong to stop for long. FALCONS, 24-16
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans : Probably the most one-sided game of the day. The ground game is really the only offense working for Tennessee, and the Texans' defensive line will slow that. TEXANS, 31-9
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers : Do I think RGIII will play as poorly as he did against Philly? No. Do I think he'll play well enough to outscore the Packers? No. PACK, 31-24
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at New York Giants : The Giants are so desperate for a running game that they hired back Brandon Jacobs, who they released after the 2011 season. They need it, as their new runner couldn't gain more than thirty yards last week and fumbled twice. The Broncos, on the other hand, showed a strong offense that could practically move the ball at will, and that was against the Ravens. BRONCOS, 44-23
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals : Arizona played better last week that they did for most of last season, but they'll still fall short this week. The Lions played extremely well last week, and showed that they can stop the run as well as do some of their own. LIONS, 34-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders : Terrelle Pryor did okay in his second NFL start, and the Raiders defense isn't half bad. That will be enough to dominate the Jags, who are definitely tops right now in the Teddy Bridgewater raffle. RAIDERS, 23-9
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs stunk last week. If they play like that this week, the Saints offense will demolish them. Since the Saints showed some defense, too, that will devastate the Bucs. SAINTS, 31-13
Sunday night
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks : This is a tremendous match-up. Both teams have strong defenses and dynamic offenses led by talented option quarterbacks. Seattle has an edge in the running game, and that might make the difference in this game. SEAHAWKS, 26-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals : Pittsburgh played atrociously last week. I think they'll get their act together and improve, but the Bengals are clearly stronger right now. BENGALS, 24-10
We wondered how Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense would work in the NFL, and the results are mixed. It was highly successful in the first half, but Washington began to figure out some moves against it over halftime. It may require some tweaking, but there may be potential there.
Other nice surprises: the power of the Broncos' offense, the Saints finding a defense, Terrelle Pryor taking over the Raiders offense from Darren McFadden, EJ Manuel looking like he can lead the Bills, and the strength of the Seahawks' defense.
There were some disappointments, too. The Patriots obviously ransacked their passing attack too much over the preseason. Both the Bucs and Giants made too many mistakes - the Bucs committed too many penalties and the Giants committed too many turnovers. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III looked sluggish in their openers, and the Steelers looked absolutely pathetic!
Picking power rankings is always tough for the first couple of weeks, because we haven't seen enough of the teams to judge opponent's strength. Expect these positions to change, but we can start the season with the following power rankings:
Top Ten Teams
1. Denver Broncos (1-0) : The Broncos manhandled the defending Super Bowl Champs. Their offense hasn't lost a beat; if anything, it improved. The defense showed quickness and versatility, too.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) : This franchise was practically completely remade in the off-season, but it's proving worthwhile. While they played Jacksonville, who is likely to be the worst team in the league, they showed consistent ability to move the ball.
3. Detroit Lions (1-0) : Their defense locked down after allowing Adrian Peterson a long touchdown to start the game, and the offense moved smoothly most of the time. They could be much better than we expected.
4. San Francisco 49ers (1-0) : The Pack pushed them hard, but in the end the 49ers proved that their game plan was a winner.
5. New Orleans Saints (1-0) : They threw everything at Atlanta, and they flinched. More impressively, the Saints have a defense again, for the first time since their Super Bowl run!
6. Miami Dolphins (1-0) : Okay, so they played Cleveland, but their offense ran much smoothly than last season.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) : Chip Kelly's offense worked, at least for two and a half quarters. It might prove a boon this season, especially if RGIII can't return to full physical shape.
8. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) : The offense moved slowly, but the defense is tough as nails.
9. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) : Oakland proved tougher than they thought, but Andrew Luck remained poised. If teams can't rattle him, he'll just get better.
10. Houston Texans (1-0) : A truly amazing comeback in the fourth quarter! This team bears down when it matters most!
Divisional ranks
1. AFC West : This West division has the top two teams in the league, not the NFC West, and Oakland and San Diego weren't shabby, either.
2. NFC West : Three teams won this week, and Arizona kept it close. San Fran and Seattle are not on the top of the league's Power Rankings yet, but their division is getting there.
3. AFC East : Three teams won this week, and Buffalo only lost by two. This division is starting out pretty good.
4 (tie). NFC North : Only two teams won, but nobody looked poor. This division has potential to improve their position.
4 (tie). AFC South : Three teams won, but Jacksonville is dragging this division down.
6. NFC South : The Saints were the only team who won, and the Bucs and Panthers looked sickly.
7. NFC East : Philly looked good, but Dallas' performance was skewed due to the Giants' mistakes. Washington took too long to get going, and RGIII looked tentative.
8. AFC North : Not a single winner in the first week! This division can only move up, and I think they will.
Thursday's game
New York Jets at New England Patriots : Geno Smith did fairly well in his NFL debut, and the Patriots showed that their passing game has been stripped. However, Brady will keep working with his receivers, and the Patriots defense will hold back the Jets. PATS, 23-17
Sunday early games
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills : I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm picking the Bills for the upset. Cam Newton and company certainly could win, but I think EJ Manual and his gang started something last week. BILLS, 23-16
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens : The Browns are yet to beat the Ravens, and that will continue. Brandon Wheeden was pathetic last week. The Ravens defense had trouble holding back Peyton's offense, but this one will be easy to stop. RAVENS, 23-10
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs : The Chiefs have some offensive power. It's hard to know how good their defense is, because they didn't have to work too hard last week. But their offense alone is capable of bringing down the Cowboys. CHIEFS, 34-24
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts : Miami had the run of the game last week, but that was against Brandon Wheeden and the weakling Browns. Against the Colts, it will be another story, and it won't have a happy ending for Fins fans. COLTS, 27-16
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears : The Vikes burned the Bears last year, but after his initial breakaway run last week, Adrian Petersen was held in check pretty well. When you also consider that Christian Ponder threw three interceptions last week, and the Bears capitalize on turnovers, I have to favor the Bears and their rebuilt offensive line. BEARS, 27-24
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles :If the Eagles offense comes out firing like they did in the first half of last week's game, they'll establish a big lead. If the Chargers defense can adjust at halftime like the Redskins did, the Chargers are capable of coming back. This game may hinge on how much of a lead the Eagles establish and whether the Chargers defense can hold them back well enough. I think the Chargers might fall short, but they might not. EAGLES, 30-27
St Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons : The Rams might hold back the Falcons for a little while, but that offense is too strong to stop for long. FALCONS, 24-16
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans : Probably the most one-sided game of the day. The ground game is really the only offense working for Tennessee, and the Texans' defensive line will slow that. TEXANS, 31-9
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers : Do I think RGIII will play as poorly as he did against Philly? No. Do I think he'll play well enough to outscore the Packers? No. PACK, 31-24
Sunday late games
Denver Broncos at New York Giants : The Giants are so desperate for a running game that they hired back Brandon Jacobs, who they released after the 2011 season. They need it, as their new runner couldn't gain more than thirty yards last week and fumbled twice. The Broncos, on the other hand, showed a strong offense that could practically move the ball at will, and that was against the Ravens. BRONCOS, 44-23
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals : Arizona played better last week that they did for most of last season, but they'll still fall short this week. The Lions played extremely well last week, and showed that they can stop the run as well as do some of their own. LIONS, 34-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders : Terrelle Pryor did okay in his second NFL start, and the Raiders defense isn't half bad. That will be enough to dominate the Jags, who are definitely tops right now in the Teddy Bridgewater raffle. RAIDERS, 23-9
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs : The Bucs stunk last week. If they play like that this week, the Saints offense will demolish them. Since the Saints showed some defense, too, that will devastate the Bucs. SAINTS, 31-13
Sunday night
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks : This is a tremendous match-up. Both teams have strong defenses and dynamic offenses led by talented option quarterbacks. Seattle has an edge in the running game, and that might make the difference in this game. SEAHAWKS, 26-23
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals : Pittsburgh played atrociously last week. I think they'll get their act together and improve, but the Bengals are clearly stronger right now. BENGALS, 24-10
Monday, September 9, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 3 picks
There were fewer surprises and upsets this week, and only one of them was caused by an FCS team -- Nicholls State beating Western Michigan. Boston College woke up and pulverized Wake Forest, making some analysts (including me) question if Wake will have a good season after all. Georgia recovered from their close loss to Clemson by rousting South Carolina, scoring so much and so easily that you have to wonder what happened to Clowney. My Alma Mater, the University of Illinois, completely dominated Cincinnati, proving that the Illini offense is potent. BYU, after being knocked off by Virginia last week, surprised Texas and knocked them right out of Top 25 contention. USC lost their Top 25 spot, too, as Washington State held them to a single touchdown and beat the Trojans at home.
What kind of surprises will we see this week? I don't know, but it might on the first night.
Thurs Sept 12
TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Horned Frogs are a good team, and a strong victory here could propel them to the Top 25. Tech won't make that easy. The Raiders aren't overpowering opponents with their offense, as is their history, but their defense is showing promise. Could they hold back TCU? Possibly, but I'll still pick the Horned Frogs, although not by enough to make them eligible for the Top 25. TCU by six
Friday Sept 13
Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos: The Broncos are yet to prove themselves to FBS opponents this season, but they'll get a chance here. Of course, with Air Force looking anemic, how impressive will it be? BOISE STATE by 13
Top 25
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at California Golden Bears: Cal still hasn't recovered from the beat-down administered by Northwestern. Now another Big Ten team comes into Berkeley to knock them down further. OHIO STATE by 27
#3 Wisconsin Badgers at Arizona State Sun Devils: What preparation has the Sun Devils had to greet one of the most potent offenses in FBS? An FCS opponent. This won't be pretty. WISCONSIN by 26
Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Oregon Ducks: The Vols have had a terrific season so far. That won't last. Their defense is good, but they'll get worn down by the fast-paced offense perfected by the Ducks. OREGON by 18
Kent State Golden Flashes at #5 LSU Tigers: This game must have been LSU's idea, as Kent State is wholefully insufficient to make this game competitive. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger is showing great poise and control, and can run when needed. The Tigers have both a working offense and stingy defense. LSU by 27
#6 Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has enjoyed a couple of good games, but they have their hands full with this one. Teddy Bridgewater comes to town, and he is likely to GO to town. LOUISVILLE by 30
Akron Zips at #7 Michigan Wolverines: Michigan scheduled this game thinking they'd need a breather after Notre Dame. Instead, they easily pound the Irish and get to coast for a couple of weeks until Big Ten play opens. MICHIGAN by 34
Nevada Wolf Pack at #8 Florida State Seminoles: Nevada is a good team, but I don't think they have the power to upset the Seminoles, who are well-stocked on both sides of the ball. FLORIDA STATE by 20
Lamar Cardinals at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This game won't affect the Cowboys' Top 25 position, as they aren't likely to lose. OKLAHOMA STATE by 34
Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks: Jadaveon Clowney is starting to complain that he is being under-utilized, but he forgets that he cannot be everywhere at once. If his defensive teammates do not step up, he will cause such a rift among the defense that South Carolina will fracture and fall. At least for this game, they should be able to hold back Vandy. SOUTH CAROLINA by 17
#15 UCLA Bruins at #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers offense meets the Bruins defense in a match-up that seems pretty evenly matched. This one could go either way, but I think Nebraska is a little better in these tight games. NEBRASKA by three
#!7 Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights: I'm not sure a strong victory here will help the Cardinal that much, as Army's strength is fairly low. It'll be an easy win, though. STANFORD by 24
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #18 Oklahoma Sooners: Tulsa has a decent offense, but Okie's is better. Throw in a questionnable Tulsa defense, and this will be a Sooner show! OKLAHOMA by 34
Youngstown State Penguins at #19 Michigan State Spartans: The Penguins can be a strong program, but I don't foresee an upset here. The Spartans have a stout defense and a capable offense. This game won't alter their position on the Top 25. MICHIGAN STATE by 27
Western Michigan Broncos at #21 Northwestern Wildcats: The Broncos just lost to FCS Nicholls State, and now they need to travel to offensive powerhouse Northwestern. This won't be pretty. NORTHWESTERN by 30
#22 Washington Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illin have already beaten one potential Top 25 team, and now they host another one. The Huskies had a bye week to relish in their victory over Boise State and prepare for Illini, but can anyone prepare for the offense the Illini are packing? The Huskies defense makes this an interesting contest, enough that I think the visiting team could win, but watch out for Illinois to engineer an upset. WASHINGTON by four
#23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers: The Irish want to redeem themselves after a tough loss to Michigan. They ought to get past Purdue, but it may not be as easy as they'd like. NOTRE DAME by eleven
#24 UCF Golden Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions: Look at this, five Big Ten teams in a row! I feel like I'm in the next section. Penn State has power, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but UCF has shown tremendous strength over the past two games. I like the team's challenges to knock off the Nittany Lions. UCF by twelve
UTSA Roadrunners at #25 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats should have a good time tearing up the field against the Roadrunners. ARIZONA by 28
Big Ten
Bowling Green Falcons at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers have produced some great offense the past two weeks, but their defense has been exposed. Expect the Falcons to take advantage of that. BOWLING GREEN by 17
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers should stomp on the Leathernecks to advance to 3-0. MINNESOTA by 21
Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones The Hawkeyes haven't been great, but they certainly have played better than the Cyclones, who were beaten by FCS Northern Iowa. IOWA by ten
Games of Interest
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas Razorbacks: Southern Miss is having a poor year so far. I'd pick Arkansas even without the power they showed in Week 1. ARKANSAS by 24
Ball State Cardinals at North Texas Mean Green: The Cardinals have begun the season with some terrific games. I expect that trend to continue against the Green, who have not been so consistent. BALL STATE by 26
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers: This might be the Tigers first real challenge, The Bulldogs can be tough, although they failed to demonstrate that against Oklahoma State. Auburn has improved this year, so look for them to win their first SEC contest. AUBURN by 13
Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies: Maryland has been tearing up opponents so far, while UConn couldn't even muster a decent performance against Towson. This one should be easy for the Terps. MARYLAND by 27
Ole Miss Rebles at Texas Longhorns: Texas needs to redeem themselves after the BYU shocker. It won't be easy, as Ole Miss has a good offense as well, but I think Texas' defense will have a slight edge. TEXAS by nine
Weber State Wildcats at Utah State Aggies: Weber State got completely wiped by Utah last week. Different Utah team, similar result, UTAH STATE by lots
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #16 Texas A&M Aggies: Alabama has been waiting for this game for nine months -- the rematch against the Aggies. When they played A&M last year, the name "Johnny Manziel" didn't mean much, and the nickname "Johnny Football" just sounded like a bunch of hype. Now Manziel is the Heisman Trophy winner, and he acts like an overhyped athlete. Therein lies the problem -- Manziel now expects to win, and is not listening to his coach. Meanwhile, clever Nick Saban has had months to devise ways to stop Manziel. The Tide can do it, and they will, as Manziel takes a slap to the side of the face. Whether that will wake him up will have to seen in later weeks. ALABAMA by eight
What kind of surprises will we see this week? I don't know, but it might on the first night.
Thurs Sept 12
TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Horned Frogs are a good team, and a strong victory here could propel them to the Top 25. Tech won't make that easy. The Raiders aren't overpowering opponents with their offense, as is their history, but their defense is showing promise. Could they hold back TCU? Possibly, but I'll still pick the Horned Frogs, although not by enough to make them eligible for the Top 25. TCU by six
Friday Sept 13
Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos: The Broncos are yet to prove themselves to FBS opponents this season, but they'll get a chance here. Of course, with Air Force looking anemic, how impressive will it be? BOISE STATE by 13
Top 25
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at California Golden Bears: Cal still hasn't recovered from the beat-down administered by Northwestern. Now another Big Ten team comes into Berkeley to knock them down further. OHIO STATE by 27
#3 Wisconsin Badgers at Arizona State Sun Devils: What preparation has the Sun Devils had to greet one of the most potent offenses in FBS? An FCS opponent. This won't be pretty. WISCONSIN by 26
Tennessee Volunteers at #4 Oregon Ducks: The Vols have had a terrific season so far. That won't last. Their defense is good, but they'll get worn down by the fast-paced offense perfected by the Ducks. OREGON by 18
Kent State Golden Flashes at #5 LSU Tigers: This game must have been LSU's idea, as Kent State is wholefully insufficient to make this game competitive. LSU QB Zach Mettenberger is showing great poise and control, and can run when needed. The Tigers have both a working offense and stingy defense. LSU by 27
#6 Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky has enjoyed a couple of good games, but they have their hands full with this one. Teddy Bridgewater comes to town, and he is likely to GO to town. LOUISVILLE by 30
Akron Zips at #7 Michigan Wolverines: Michigan scheduled this game thinking they'd need a breather after Notre Dame. Instead, they easily pound the Irish and get to coast for a couple of weeks until Big Ten play opens. MICHIGAN by 34
Nevada Wolf Pack at #8 Florida State Seminoles: Nevada is a good team, but I don't think they have the power to upset the Seminoles, who are well-stocked on both sides of the ball. FLORIDA STATE by 20
Lamar Cardinals at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This game won't affect the Cowboys' Top 25 position, as they aren't likely to lose. OKLAHOMA STATE by 34
Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 South Carolina Gamecocks: Jadaveon Clowney is starting to complain that he is being under-utilized, but he forgets that he cannot be everywhere at once. If his defensive teammates do not step up, he will cause such a rift among the defense that South Carolina will fracture and fall. At least for this game, they should be able to hold back Vandy. SOUTH CAROLINA by 17
#15 UCLA Bruins at #13 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers offense meets the Bruins defense in a match-up that seems pretty evenly matched. This one could go either way, but I think Nebraska is a little better in these tight games. NEBRASKA by three
#!7 Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights: I'm not sure a strong victory here will help the Cardinal that much, as Army's strength is fairly low. It'll be an easy win, though. STANFORD by 24
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #18 Oklahoma Sooners: Tulsa has a decent offense, but Okie's is better. Throw in a questionnable Tulsa defense, and this will be a Sooner show! OKLAHOMA by 34
Youngstown State Penguins at #19 Michigan State Spartans: The Penguins can be a strong program, but I don't foresee an upset here. The Spartans have a stout defense and a capable offense. This game won't alter their position on the Top 25. MICHIGAN STATE by 27
Western Michigan Broncos at #21 Northwestern Wildcats: The Broncos just lost to FCS Nicholls State, and now they need to travel to offensive powerhouse Northwestern. This won't be pretty. NORTHWESTERN by 30
#22 Washington Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Illin have already beaten one potential Top 25 team, and now they host another one. The Huskies had a bye week to relish in their victory over Boise State and prepare for Illini, but can anyone prepare for the offense the Illini are packing? The Huskies defense makes this an interesting contest, enough that I think the visiting team could win, but watch out for Illinois to engineer an upset. WASHINGTON by four
#23 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers: The Irish want to redeem themselves after a tough loss to Michigan. They ought to get past Purdue, but it may not be as easy as they'd like. NOTRE DAME by eleven
#24 UCF Golden Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions: Look at this, five Big Ten teams in a row! I feel like I'm in the next section. Penn State has power, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but UCF has shown tremendous strength over the past two games. I like the team's challenges to knock off the Nittany Lions. UCF by twelve
UTSA Roadrunners at #25 Arizona Wildcats: The Wildcats should have a good time tearing up the field against the Roadrunners. ARIZONA by 28
Big Ten
Bowling Green Falcons at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers have produced some great offense the past two weeks, but their defense has been exposed. Expect the Falcons to take advantage of that. BOWLING GREEN by 17
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers: The Gophers should stomp on the Leathernecks to advance to 3-0. MINNESOTA by 21
Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones The Hawkeyes haven't been great, but they certainly have played better than the Cyclones, who were beaten by FCS Northern Iowa. IOWA by ten
Games of Interest
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas Razorbacks: Southern Miss is having a poor year so far. I'd pick Arkansas even without the power they showed in Week 1. ARKANSAS by 24
Ball State Cardinals at North Texas Mean Green: The Cardinals have begun the season with some terrific games. I expect that trend to continue against the Green, who have not been so consistent. BALL STATE by 26
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers: This might be the Tigers first real challenge, The Bulldogs can be tough, although they failed to demonstrate that against Oklahoma State. Auburn has improved this year, so look for them to win their first SEC contest. AUBURN by 13
Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies: Maryland has been tearing up opponents so far, while UConn couldn't even muster a decent performance against Towson. This one should be easy for the Terps. MARYLAND by 27
Ole Miss Rebles at Texas Longhorns: Texas needs to redeem themselves after the BYU shocker. It won't be easy, as Ole Miss has a good offense as well, but I think Texas' defense will have a slight edge. TEXAS by nine
Weber State Wildcats at Utah State Aggies: Weber State got completely wiped by Utah last week. Different Utah team, similar result, UTAH STATE by lots
GAME OF THE WEEK: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #16 Texas A&M Aggies: Alabama has been waiting for this game for nine months -- the rematch against the Aggies. When they played A&M last year, the name "Johnny Manziel" didn't mean much, and the nickname "Johnny Football" just sounded like a bunch of hype. Now Manziel is the Heisman Trophy winner, and he acts like an overhyped athlete. Therein lies the problem -- Manziel now expects to win, and is not listening to his coach. Meanwhile, clever Nick Saban has had months to devise ways to stop Manziel. The Tide can do it, and they will, as Manziel takes a slap to the side of the face. Whether that will wake him up will have to seen in later weeks. ALABAMA by eight
Sunday, September 8, 2013
NCAA 2013 Top 25 - Week 2
Welcome to the first Top 25 of the new college football season. For newcomers to my blog, let me remind you of how my Top 25 is slightly different from other national ones:
1. I do not consider the point spread of games against FCS opponents. For those games, I only count whether they won or lost. A team that loses to an FCS opponent has a much reduced chance of appearing in the Top 25 (so, for instance, Kansas State and Oregon State are unlikely to appear in this year's Top 25)
2. No team with a negative point differential (points scored - points allowed) against FBS opponents will appear on the Top 25. While this sounds obvious, in years past the AP and ESPN polls have placed teams on their Top 25 due to one or two outstanding games, and expectations of better results, when the teams had struggled earlier.
3. The position is based upon overall record and a complicated calculation of Strength of Result, which considers: point spread, average record of opponents (based upon their records over the past five years), strength of opponent (based upon the strength of the opponents' opponents over the past five years), and result of various game stats.
Top 25
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) : Although the offensive line looked a bit confused in Week 1, this team is still one of the most potent in the nation.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Buffalo showed this week that their offense isn't that great, so the Buckeyes' Week 1 performance hurts them, but they still shine in most game stats.
3. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) : They've put together two of the best performances of any team so far this season.
4. Oregon Ducks (2-0) : Their offense is high-powered; no loss of punch with the departure of Chip Kelly. Their demolition of Virginia, who upset BYU in Week 1, marks them a strong National Champion candidate.
5. LSU Tigers (2-0) : They followed up a strong performance against TCU with a destruction of UAB.
6. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) : No QB is putting up better numbers than Teddy Bridgewater
7. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) : After demolishing Central Michigan, they had no problems against Notre Dame
8. Florida State Seminoles (1-0) : Before their bye week, they schooled Pitt in what it takes to play in the ACC
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0) : Two strong and consistently well-played games gives them the edge in the Big XII
10. Clemson Tigers (2-0) : They showed great poise and control in the victory over Georgia. In fact, Georgia's strong game this week boosted Clemson's position.
11. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) : The Bulldogs beatdown of South Carolina helped get them here, but they need to play better in the first half of their games.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-1) : They had Top Ten potential before Georgia knocked them up. Where was the defensive power in that game?
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0) : The Cornhuskers were actually helped by Wyoming's dominant performance this week, as Nebraska barely snuck past them last week. The Cornhuskers redeemed themselves against Southern Miss
14. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) : Already on my radar before this week, their pressure against Florida QB Jeff Driskell showed why this team is dangerous
15. UCLA Bruins (1-0) : A thoroughly dominance of Nevada shows that UCLA might take the Pac-10 South title outright this year.
16. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) : While Johnny Manziel has looked good on the field, I still question how far A&M will go against strong defenses. Manziel seems to think he is unbeatable, and that's not true.
17. Stanford Cardinal (1-0) : Nice dismantling of San Jose State
18. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : The Sooners would have been higher based on last week's performance, but a struggle against West Virginia leads me to wonder how good their offense really is
19. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : Two good victories, but it looks like they will again play close games
20. Baylor Bears (2-0) : They scored 30 more points against Buffalo than Ohio State did, and allowed one less touchdown. This team could move up fast
21. Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) : They followed up an offensive blitz against Cal by scrubbing Syracuse. They seem to let up late in games, though, allowing their opponents a chance to bridge the gap. They can't do that in close games, or they'll lose.
22. Washington Huskies (1-0) : They dismantled Boise State, but the jury is still out on Boise's strength. The Illinois game may now become more crucial, after Illinois shocked Cincinnati this week.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1) : Michigan exposes some flaws in this team. They need to improve or they may lose their Top 25 position
24. UCF Golden Knights (2-0) : Their defense is solid. Despite low strength of opponents so far, this team is now the favorite to win the first American Athletic title, after Illinois dismantled Cincinnati
25. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) : UNLV had already lost a game, so their dominant performance this week didn't help them as much. Beating Washington in three weeks might be their best chance for a Top 25 boost.
Contenders who fell this week: USC Trojans, Florida Gators, Texas Longhorns, Cincinnati Bearcats, NC State Wolfpack
On the Edge: Texas Longhorns (1-1), BYU Cougars (1-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0), Auburn igers (2-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-0), Maryland Terrapins (2-0), Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0), Bowling Green Falcons (2-0), Ball State Cardinals (2-0), Utah State Aggies (1-1), Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0)
1. I do not consider the point spread of games against FCS opponents. For those games, I only count whether they won or lost. A team that loses to an FCS opponent has a much reduced chance of appearing in the Top 25 (so, for instance, Kansas State and Oregon State are unlikely to appear in this year's Top 25)
2. No team with a negative point differential (points scored - points allowed) against FBS opponents will appear on the Top 25. While this sounds obvious, in years past the AP and ESPN polls have placed teams on their Top 25 due to one or two outstanding games, and expectations of better results, when the teams had struggled earlier.
3. The position is based upon overall record and a complicated calculation of Strength of Result, which considers: point spread, average record of opponents (based upon their records over the past five years), strength of opponent (based upon the strength of the opponents' opponents over the past five years), and result of various game stats.
Top 25
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) : Although the offensive line looked a bit confused in Week 1, this team is still one of the most potent in the nation.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Buffalo showed this week that their offense isn't that great, so the Buckeyes' Week 1 performance hurts them, but they still shine in most game stats.
3. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) : They've put together two of the best performances of any team so far this season.
4. Oregon Ducks (2-0) : Their offense is high-powered; no loss of punch with the departure of Chip Kelly. Their demolition of Virginia, who upset BYU in Week 1, marks them a strong National Champion candidate.
5. LSU Tigers (2-0) : They followed up a strong performance against TCU with a destruction of UAB.
6. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) : No QB is putting up better numbers than Teddy Bridgewater
7. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) : After demolishing Central Michigan, they had no problems against Notre Dame
8. Florida State Seminoles (1-0) : Before their bye week, they schooled Pitt in what it takes to play in the ACC
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0) : Two strong and consistently well-played games gives them the edge in the Big XII
10. Clemson Tigers (2-0) : They showed great poise and control in the victory over Georgia. In fact, Georgia's strong game this week boosted Clemson's position.
11. Georgia Bulldogs (1-1) : The Bulldogs beatdown of South Carolina helped get them here, but they need to play better in the first half of their games.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-1) : They had Top Ten potential before Georgia knocked them up. Where was the defensive power in that game?
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0) : The Cornhuskers were actually helped by Wyoming's dominant performance this week, as Nebraska barely snuck past them last week. The Cornhuskers redeemed themselves against Southern Miss
14. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) : Already on my radar before this week, their pressure against Florida QB Jeff Driskell showed why this team is dangerous
15. UCLA Bruins (1-0) : A thoroughly dominance of Nevada shows that UCLA might take the Pac-10 South title outright this year.
16. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) : While Johnny Manziel has looked good on the field, I still question how far A&M will go against strong defenses. Manziel seems to think he is unbeatable, and that's not true.
17. Stanford Cardinal (1-0) : Nice dismantling of San Jose State
18. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) : The Sooners would have been higher based on last week's performance, but a struggle against West Virginia leads me to wonder how good their offense really is
19. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) : Two good victories, but it looks like they will again play close games
20. Baylor Bears (2-0) : They scored 30 more points against Buffalo than Ohio State did, and allowed one less touchdown. This team could move up fast
21. Northwestern Wildcats (2-0) : They followed up an offensive blitz against Cal by scrubbing Syracuse. They seem to let up late in games, though, allowing their opponents a chance to bridge the gap. They can't do that in close games, or they'll lose.
22. Washington Huskies (1-0) : They dismantled Boise State, but the jury is still out on Boise's strength. The Illinois game may now become more crucial, after Illinois shocked Cincinnati this week.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1) : Michigan exposes some flaws in this team. They need to improve or they may lose their Top 25 position
24. UCF Golden Knights (2-0) : Their defense is solid. Despite low strength of opponents so far, this team is now the favorite to win the first American Athletic title, after Illinois dismantled Cincinnati
25. Arizona Wildcats (2-0) : UNLV had already lost a game, so their dominant performance this week didn't help them as much. Beating Washington in three weeks might be their best chance for a Top 25 boost.
Contenders who fell this week: USC Trojans, Florida Gators, Texas Longhorns, Cincinnati Bearcats, NC State Wolfpack
On the Edge: Texas Longhorns (1-1), BYU Cougars (1-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-0), Auburn igers (2-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-0), Maryland Terrapins (2-0), Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0), Bowling Green Falcons (2-0), Ball State Cardinals (2-0), Utah State Aggies (1-1), Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0)
Thursday, September 5, 2013
NFL 2013 Week 1 picks
It's the start of a new season, and we have some thrilling games this weekend! It all starts with the defending Super Bowl Champions and a favorite to reach this year's Super Bowl.
Thursday game
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Baltimore lost some punch on defense, but their offense is still loaded. The offense was really rolling in the postseason, but they started 2012 slowly. Will they puck up on the momentum from the end of last year, or did the long break throw them off? Denver's defense is without Von Miller, but the offense improved in the off-season. I like Denver to overpower a Ravens team still finding their defensive identify. BRONCOS, 31-24
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: The Saints defense should improve this year, but it may take a little bit of time. Between the Saints' high-powered offense and the connection that exists among Matt Ryan and his receivers, this should be a high-scoring game. While either team could this game, I have to favor the Saints in an offensive battle. SAINTS, 35-31
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: I would love to pick my Bears, but I'm not sure if their new offensive line will protect Jay Cutler enough. There's also some question whether Brandon Marshall will play. Thus, I have to figure the Bengals will dominate this game. BENGALS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Chiefs set themselves up for a good season, while the Jags don't appear to have fixed too many of their holes in the off-season. A poor defense is also a negative for the Jags. CHIEFS, 27-13
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns: Neither team seems ready for a strong run this season, but the Dolphins certainly seem better suited for a good game here. The Browns have a tendency to make too many mistakes, and the early part of the season is common for mental mistakes. DOLPHINS, 20-10
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: On paper, these two teams seem evenly matched. However, Vikings QB Christian Ponder comes into this season with a monkey on his back. He know he has to perform. If the Lions take an early lead, he may feel pressure to perform. If he starts to force plays, that's when he makes mistakes. He may calm down over halftime, but it might be too late then. LIONS, 30-24
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots may have lost considerable offensive punch in the off-season, but they have more than enough to beat the Bills, especially with their quarterback problems. PATS, 20-6
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: Oakland is having quarterback issues of their own, as well as issues at many positions. Running back is the only positive part of Oakland's game, which ironically is the worst spot on the Colts' roster. They won't need a running game, as a weak Oakland secondary will let the passing game flourish. COLTS, 31-13
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton likes to think he is a good option quarterback, but he can't compare to Russell Wilson. Wilson is faster, sneakier, and stronger. In fact, those adjectives can be used for most comparisons between Seattle players and Carolina players. Seattle is being viewed as a potential Super Bowl team, and this game will illustrate why. SEAHAWKS, 30-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Jets: Like Buffalo and Oakland, the Jets are having quarterback problems of their own. They are also suffering on defense, although Coach Rex Ryan has turned his focus to that squad. He can turn them around faster, but it'll take a few weeks. BUCS, 13-6
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh will start slowly, as they rebuild their offensive line, their running game, and their defense. Fortunately, the Titans are weak enough to give them some time. STEELERS, 13-6
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: Despite some issues on the Cardinals, these two teams seem pretty evenly matched. This will likely be a close game. With neither a defensive mammoth, which I usually use to resolve close games, I'll pick the home team. RAMS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Clay Matthews has been talking all week about how they will stop the read option offense - attacking the quarterback. This strategy counts on the quarterback having no option if he carries the ball. Last year, that might have worked, as Kapernick's primary receivers were players who stretched the field. With Michael Crabtree out, Anquan Boldin fulfills that role. Most of the other receivers, though, are short yardage guys, giving a scrambling or running Kapernick dump off options. That will make the 49ers successful. 49ERS, 27-23
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants come into the regular season with some issues, but the Cowboys are definitely scrambling for offensive strength. If the preseason was any indication, this team will struggle. GIANTS, 20-13
Monday night games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Chip Kelly's fast offense truly debuts. He was finding the right personnel during preseason, and he says he's now ready to roll it out. Whether the offense works or not may not be the issue for this game. I don't think the defense will get long enough breaks with this fast offense, and a weary defense against Washington's option offense will be devastating. REDSKINS, 27-13
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: The Texans took a step back from last year, but their defense should still be strong enough to slow the Chargers offense. TEXANS, 20-16
Thursday game
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Baltimore lost some punch on defense, but their offense is still loaded. The offense was really rolling in the postseason, but they started 2012 slowly. Will they puck up on the momentum from the end of last year, or did the long break throw them off? Denver's defense is without Von Miller, but the offense improved in the off-season. I like Denver to overpower a Ravens team still finding their defensive identify. BRONCOS, 31-24
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: The Saints defense should improve this year, but it may take a little bit of time. Between the Saints' high-powered offense and the connection that exists among Matt Ryan and his receivers, this should be a high-scoring game. While either team could this game, I have to favor the Saints in an offensive battle. SAINTS, 35-31
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: I would love to pick my Bears, but I'm not sure if their new offensive line will protect Jay Cutler enough. There's also some question whether Brandon Marshall will play. Thus, I have to figure the Bengals will dominate this game. BENGALS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Chiefs set themselves up for a good season, while the Jags don't appear to have fixed too many of their holes in the off-season. A poor defense is also a negative for the Jags. CHIEFS, 27-13
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns: Neither team seems ready for a strong run this season, but the Dolphins certainly seem better suited for a good game here. The Browns have a tendency to make too many mistakes, and the early part of the season is common for mental mistakes. DOLPHINS, 20-10
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: On paper, these two teams seem evenly matched. However, Vikings QB Christian Ponder comes into this season with a monkey on his back. He know he has to perform. If the Lions take an early lead, he may feel pressure to perform. If he starts to force plays, that's when he makes mistakes. He may calm down over halftime, but it might be too late then. LIONS, 30-24
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots may have lost considerable offensive punch in the off-season, but they have more than enough to beat the Bills, especially with their quarterback problems. PATS, 20-6
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: Oakland is having quarterback issues of their own, as well as issues at many positions. Running back is the only positive part of Oakland's game, which ironically is the worst spot on the Colts' roster. They won't need a running game, as a weak Oakland secondary will let the passing game flourish. COLTS, 31-13
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton likes to think he is a good option quarterback, but he can't compare to Russell Wilson. Wilson is faster, sneakier, and stronger. In fact, those adjectives can be used for most comparisons between Seattle players and Carolina players. Seattle is being viewed as a potential Super Bowl team, and this game will illustrate why. SEAHAWKS, 30-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New York Jets: Like Buffalo and Oakland, the Jets are having quarterback problems of their own. They are also suffering on defense, although Coach Rex Ryan has turned his focus to that squad. He can turn them around faster, but it'll take a few weeks. BUCS, 13-6
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh will start slowly, as they rebuild their offensive line, their running game, and their defense. Fortunately, the Titans are weak enough to give them some time. STEELERS, 13-6
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams: Despite some issues on the Cardinals, these two teams seem pretty evenly matched. This will likely be a close game. With neither a defensive mammoth, which I usually use to resolve close games, I'll pick the home team. RAMS, 17-16
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Clay Matthews has been talking all week about how they will stop the read option offense - attacking the quarterback. This strategy counts on the quarterback having no option if he carries the ball. Last year, that might have worked, as Kapernick's primary receivers were players who stretched the field. With Michael Crabtree out, Anquan Boldin fulfills that role. Most of the other receivers, though, are short yardage guys, giving a scrambling or running Kapernick dump off options. That will make the 49ers successful. 49ERS, 27-23
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: The Giants come into the regular season with some issues, but the Cowboys are definitely scrambling for offensive strength. If the preseason was any indication, this team will struggle. GIANTS, 20-13
Monday night games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Chip Kelly's fast offense truly debuts. He was finding the right personnel during preseason, and he says he's now ready to roll it out. Whether the offense works or not may not be the issue for this game. I don't think the defense will get long enough breaks with this fast offense, and a weary defense against Washington's option offense will be devastating. REDSKINS, 27-13
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: The Texans took a step back from last year, but their defense should still be strong enough to slow the Chargers offense. TEXANS, 20-16
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
NCAA 2013 Week 2 picks
May, it was an exciting week for college football over the Labor Day weekend! We learned some things about some teams, and not everything was good. We learned how stout the Bowling Green defense is, and how error-prone Tulsa is, in a shocking 34-7 Tulsa loss. Rutgers' offense is powerful, but they made some poor decisions that led to a 52-51 overtime loss to Fresno State. Ohio State's young defense needs work, and Buffalo has a great offense. West Virginia may be worse than I expected, barely beating FCS William & Mary, and Illinois' defense is extremely weak. Marshall looks like a high-powered team, as does Wyoming.
We had our share of upsets, too. FCS teams were stepping up, like Towson beating UConn, McNeese State up-ending South Florida, and Eastern Illinois slaughtering San Diego State. The bigger shocks were losses to preseason Top 25 teams or teams expected to have big years. North Dakota State extended their streak of beating FBS teams to four years, although Kansas State was their most prestigious opponent to date. Virginia, a team frequently languishing in the cellar of the ACC, knocked off BYU. Eastern Washington shocked Oregon State, but perhaps the most amazing result was Washington's complete domination of Boise State.
How will some of those teams bounce back? Will those victories inspire other FCS teams? Let's see...
Thurs Sept 5
Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates: East Carolina let Old Dominion score often against them, but I think the defense will straighten themselves out for this game. I don't think the Pirates expected much from the Monarchs (I know I didn't!), so they'll sharpen their game this week. EAST CAROLINA by 15
Sacramento State Hornets at Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils took last week off, but they won't need it to prepare for this game. ARIZONA STATE by 30
Fri Sept 6
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles: BC looked even worse than I thought. Wake should have not much more difficulty than they did last week. WAKE FOREST by 21
UCF Golden Knights at Florida International Panthers: UCF was one of the pleasant surprises last week, showing more power than I expected. Maryland knocked around the Panthers fairly easy, so UCF shouldn't have much trouble, either. UCF by 30
Saturday's games
I have no Top 25 to analyze, as my long-time readers know that I do not create a Top 25 until after the second week, and even then expect it to shuffle wildly until Week 4 or 5. Again, as last week, I'll look at Big Ten teams and Games of Interest.
Big Ten
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin was the most impressive Big Ten team last week, and that should continue this week. Tech just doesn't have the defense to slow the Badgers, who don't seem to have lost any steam with the loss of Monte Ball and coach Bret Bielema. WISCONSIN by 36
South Florida Bulls at Michigan State Spartans: South Florida looked pathetic last week, especially on defense. That should give Sparty great confidence. MICHIGAN STATE by 26
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State wasn't dominant last week, but Eastern Michigan looked sickly. If they can't get it together, they'll get run over. PENN STATE by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: Cincy was a huge force last week, while Illinois' defense struggled against FCS Southern Illinois. Cincy will score at will. CINCINNATI by 34
Missouri State Bears at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa fell last week, but they should redeem themselves this week. IOWA by 13
Indiana State Sycamores at Purdue Boilermakers: The only other team in the Big Ten to lose last week, Purdue also needs to beat their FCS opponent to regain some confidence. They should, but it may not be as easy as they thought. PURDUE by 12
San Diego State Aztecs at Ohio State Buckeyes: Eastern Illinois pulverized San Diego State last week, so Ohio State shouldn't have much of problem. The Aztecs struggled to score against their FCS opponent, so the Buckeyes young defense gets a chance to gain some valuable experience. OHIO STATE by 31
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska barely survived last week, so they need a strong victory to restore some confidence. I don't expect Southern Miss to put up much of a fight, so they get that boost. NEBRASKA by 24
Syracuse Orange at Northwestern Wildcats: Syracuse did better than I expected and Northwestern had some trouble against Cal, but the Wildcats pushed and won. That is a characteristic of this Wildcat team, and they should show that spunk again. NORTHWESTERN by 17
Navy Midshipmen at Indiana Hooisers: Navy hasn't played yet, so this one is a gut call. In other years I wouldn't hesitate to pick Navy, but they seem to have lost strength this year. I'll favor the home team, but this game could go either way. INDIANA by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan played hot last week. The Irish won, but it wasn't a commanding victory over Temple. The Irish kept them from scoring, but the Owls defense slowed the Irish. The Wolverines defense is better, and the offense is MUCH better. Michigan should win, as they have won the last four contests at home against Notre Dame, but the Irish could come alive. MICHIGAN by eight
Minnesota Golden Gophers at New Mexico State Aggies: Minnesota was a strong performer last week; New Mexico State was not. MINNESOTA by 20
Games of Interest
Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Louisville Cardinals The Teddy Bridgewater show had a nearly perfect opening act, and I don't expect Act II to be any less. LOUISVILLE by lots
Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes: Oh, this game should be close and exciting! Florida wasn't great last week, while Miami didn't have to exert much effort to win. I'd love to pick the Hurricanes, but the Gators seem to push harder against in-state rivals. I'll pick the Gators, but the Hurricanes could easily win this one. FLORIDA by four
Oklahoma State Cowboys at UTSA Roadrunners: The Cowboys weren't impressive, they certainly played better than the Roadrunners. OKLAHOMA STATE by 21
Southeastern Louisiana Lions at TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs couldn't beat LSU, but they played well. This game should be a breeze. TCU by 27
Houston Cougars at Temple Owls: The Owls defense showed some strength last week, but Houston's offense is just too powerful. HOUSTON by 31
South Carolina State Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers: Clemson and Tajh Boyd showed that Georgia couldn't stop them, so don't expect much from SC State. CLEMSON by a busload
Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers: While I don't expect Virginia to upset Oregon like they did BYU, this game might be closer than Oregon would like. The Cavs have a decent defense, and that might slow the fast Ducks offense. OREGON by 24
Toledo Rockets at Missouri Tigers: Toledo's defense was strong enough to slow Florida, but they have more of a handful against Mizzou. Expect the Tigers to win, but the margin might be smaller than people expect. MISSOURI by 18
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas A&M Aggies: Johnny Manziel continues his immature behavior, just asking for someone to catch him doing something that could get him kicked out of school. Until then, the more he alienates himself from his coach, the less coaching he will accept, and that means he won't improve. San Houston isn't good enough to knock them off, but they have shocked FBS teams in the past, and may make this game interesting. TEXAS A&M by 24
UAB Blazers at LSU Tigers: LSU showed strength against TCU, especially on offense. They will dominate this game. LSU by 24
Texas Longhorns at BYU Cougars: After BYU's loss to Virginia, there is no question that Texas will easily win this one. TEXAS by 31
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners: The Mountaineers looked pretty pathetic last week. If they can't improve, they'll be slaughtered nearly every week. OKLAHOMA by 30
Hawaii Warriors at Oregon State Beavers: Hawaii looked a little better than I expected, but Oregon State should bounce back from their shocking upset last week. OREGON STATE by 11
Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans: USC had a fine opener, and that should extend into this week. USC by 21
Arizona Wildcats at UNLV Running Rebels: Minnesota skinned the Running Rebels last week. They should be prepared to lose another layer this week. ARIZONA by 17
San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal The Cardinal didn't play last week, so we're not sure what to expect, but since the Spartans could only muster 24 points against FCS Sacramento State, their offenses seems a bit lackluster. STANFORD by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs: One thing we learned from last week's Game of the Week is that Georgia's high-powered offense is susceptible to speedy defenses. That seems to fit Clowney and company to a tee. South Carolina's offense isn't as good as Clemson's, so they'll have to slow Georgia even more than Clemson did. I think the Gamecocks can do that. SOUTH CAROLINA by six
We had our share of upsets, too. FCS teams were stepping up, like Towson beating UConn, McNeese State up-ending South Florida, and Eastern Illinois slaughtering San Diego State. The bigger shocks were losses to preseason Top 25 teams or teams expected to have big years. North Dakota State extended their streak of beating FBS teams to four years, although Kansas State was their most prestigious opponent to date. Virginia, a team frequently languishing in the cellar of the ACC, knocked off BYU. Eastern Washington shocked Oregon State, but perhaps the most amazing result was Washington's complete domination of Boise State.
How will some of those teams bounce back? Will those victories inspire other FCS teams? Let's see...
Thurs Sept 5
Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates: East Carolina let Old Dominion score often against them, but I think the defense will straighten themselves out for this game. I don't think the Pirates expected much from the Monarchs (I know I didn't!), so they'll sharpen their game this week. EAST CAROLINA by 15
Sacramento State Hornets at Arizona State Sun Devils: The Sun Devils took last week off, but they won't need it to prepare for this game. ARIZONA STATE by 30
Fri Sept 6
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles: BC looked even worse than I thought. Wake should have not much more difficulty than they did last week. WAKE FOREST by 21
UCF Golden Knights at Florida International Panthers: UCF was one of the pleasant surprises last week, showing more power than I expected. Maryland knocked around the Panthers fairly easy, so UCF shouldn't have much trouble, either. UCF by 30
Saturday's games
I have no Top 25 to analyze, as my long-time readers know that I do not create a Top 25 until after the second week, and even then expect it to shuffle wildly until Week 4 or 5. Again, as last week, I'll look at Big Ten teams and Games of Interest.
Big Ten
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin was the most impressive Big Ten team last week, and that should continue this week. Tech just doesn't have the defense to slow the Badgers, who don't seem to have lost any steam with the loss of Monte Ball and coach Bret Bielema. WISCONSIN by 36
South Florida Bulls at Michigan State Spartans: South Florida looked pathetic last week, especially on defense. That should give Sparty great confidence. MICHIGAN STATE by 26
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State wasn't dominant last week, but Eastern Michigan looked sickly. If they can't get it together, they'll get run over. PENN STATE by 16
Cincinnati Bearcats at Illinois Fighting Illini: Cincy was a huge force last week, while Illinois' defense struggled against FCS Southern Illinois. Cincy will score at will. CINCINNATI by 34
Missouri State Bears at Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa fell last week, but they should redeem themselves this week. IOWA by 13
Indiana State Sycamores at Purdue Boilermakers: The only other team in the Big Ten to lose last week, Purdue also needs to beat their FCS opponent to regain some confidence. They should, but it may not be as easy as they thought. PURDUE by 12
San Diego State Aztecs at Ohio State Buckeyes: Eastern Illinois pulverized San Diego State last week, so Ohio State shouldn't have much of problem. The Aztecs struggled to score against their FCS opponent, so the Buckeyes young defense gets a chance to gain some valuable experience. OHIO STATE by 31
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska barely survived last week, so they need a strong victory to restore some confidence. I don't expect Southern Miss to put up much of a fight, so they get that boost. NEBRASKA by 24
Syracuse Orange at Northwestern Wildcats: Syracuse did better than I expected and Northwestern had some trouble against Cal, but the Wildcats pushed and won. That is a characteristic of this Wildcat team, and they should show that spunk again. NORTHWESTERN by 17
Navy Midshipmen at Indiana Hooisers: Navy hasn't played yet, so this one is a gut call. In other years I wouldn't hesitate to pick Navy, but they seem to have lost strength this year. I'll favor the home team, but this game could go either way. INDIANA by three
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines: Michigan played hot last week. The Irish won, but it wasn't a commanding victory over Temple. The Irish kept them from scoring, but the Owls defense slowed the Irish. The Wolverines defense is better, and the offense is MUCH better. Michigan should win, as they have won the last four contests at home against Notre Dame, but the Irish could come alive. MICHIGAN by eight
Minnesota Golden Gophers at New Mexico State Aggies: Minnesota was a strong performer last week; New Mexico State was not. MINNESOTA by 20
Games of Interest
Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Louisville Cardinals The Teddy Bridgewater show had a nearly perfect opening act, and I don't expect Act II to be any less. LOUISVILLE by lots
Florida Gators at Miami Hurricanes: Oh, this game should be close and exciting! Florida wasn't great last week, while Miami didn't have to exert much effort to win. I'd love to pick the Hurricanes, but the Gators seem to push harder against in-state rivals. I'll pick the Gators, but the Hurricanes could easily win this one. FLORIDA by four
Oklahoma State Cowboys at UTSA Roadrunners: The Cowboys weren't impressive, they certainly played better than the Roadrunners. OKLAHOMA STATE by 21
Southeastern Louisiana Lions at TCU Horned Frogs: The Horned Frogs couldn't beat LSU, but they played well. This game should be a breeze. TCU by 27
Houston Cougars at Temple Owls: The Owls defense showed some strength last week, but Houston's offense is just too powerful. HOUSTON by 31
South Carolina State Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers: Clemson and Tajh Boyd showed that Georgia couldn't stop them, so don't expect much from SC State. CLEMSON by a busload
Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers: While I don't expect Virginia to upset Oregon like they did BYU, this game might be closer than Oregon would like. The Cavs have a decent defense, and that might slow the fast Ducks offense. OREGON by 24
Toledo Rockets at Missouri Tigers: Toledo's defense was strong enough to slow Florida, but they have more of a handful against Mizzou. Expect the Tigers to win, but the margin might be smaller than people expect. MISSOURI by 18
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas A&M Aggies: Johnny Manziel continues his immature behavior, just asking for someone to catch him doing something that could get him kicked out of school. Until then, the more he alienates himself from his coach, the less coaching he will accept, and that means he won't improve. San Houston isn't good enough to knock them off, but they have shocked FBS teams in the past, and may make this game interesting. TEXAS A&M by 24
UAB Blazers at LSU Tigers: LSU showed strength against TCU, especially on offense. They will dominate this game. LSU by 24
Texas Longhorns at BYU Cougars: After BYU's loss to Virginia, there is no question that Texas will easily win this one. TEXAS by 31
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners: The Mountaineers looked pretty pathetic last week. If they can't improve, they'll be slaughtered nearly every week. OKLAHOMA by 30
Hawaii Warriors at Oregon State Beavers: Hawaii looked a little better than I expected, but Oregon State should bounce back from their shocking upset last week. OREGON STATE by 11
Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans: USC had a fine opener, and that should extend into this week. USC by 21
Arizona Wildcats at UNLV Running Rebels: Minnesota skinned the Running Rebels last week. They should be prepared to lose another layer this week. ARIZONA by 17
San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal The Cardinal didn't play last week, so we're not sure what to expect, but since the Spartans could only muster 24 points against FCS Sacramento State, their offenses seems a bit lackluster. STANFORD by 17
GAME OF THE WEEK: South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs: One thing we learned from last week's Game of the Week is that Georgia's high-powered offense is susceptible to speedy defenses. That seems to fit Clowney and company to a tee. South Carolina's offense isn't as good as Clemson's, so they'll have to slow Georgia even more than Clemson did. I think the Gamecocks can do that. SOUTH CAROLINA by six
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)