I apologize to everyone for last week's missing column. I thought sure I had posted it! All I can say is that it has been a busy couple of weeks. Strangely, it was a near-perfect week of picks! Hopefully that means I'm getting the hang of the quirks of 2017.
Thurs Nov 2
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: While the Jets have not been the pathetic weaklings I predicted, they haven't been having a stellar season. The Bills, on the other hand, have been doing very well, posting one of the better records in the league. Their offense is working, and it's working better than the Jets. BILLS
Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this will likely be a close games. In close games, the Panthers have the edge. Furthermore, if the fourth quarter is going to make a difference in this game, I certainly favor the Panthers. PANTHERS
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans: The Titans have been doing very well this season, but the Ravens are starting to find their footing. Furthermore, QB Joe Flacco is expected back for this game. That should motivate their defense as well, giving them enough emphasis to pull out a victory. RAVENS
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Nobody has been demonstrating that preseason performance is a poor indication of regular season performance than Jaguars QB Blake Bortles. He struggled mightily through preseason, but has been leading this team to a excellent season. Andy Dalton, on the other hand, has not been helping the Bengals much. JAGUARS
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles lead the league, and their massive offense has been a major reason. The Broncos have a stingy defense, but I don't think they are strong enough to keep the Eagles at a level for their inconsistent offense to win. EAGLES
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: The Texans may be missing some key defensive pieces, but they won't need them to win this game. The Colts have been atrocious, and their porous defense would even allow Tom Savage to score. TEXANS
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: The Giants are really having troubles this season. Now they face a talented Rams defense and an offense augmented by a well-trained Jared Goff. The Rams are winning by pure force. RAMS
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been a bit inconsistent this season, but they haven't lost offensive power. Their problems have often come on the heels of mistakes. Tampa Bay can cause opponents to make mistakes, but the Saints have recently been getting a handle on that, so they should win this game. SAINTS
Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are struggling mightily this season. The Cardinals are not operating as smoothly as they have in recent years, but they certainly can get past the hapless 49ers. CARDINALS
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys: It looks like Dallas will be without the services of Zeke Elliot. While he has not been contributing as much to the offense as he did last season, he adds a spirit to the team that will be missing. Expect the Chiefs to exploit that. CHIEFS
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: The Redskins stumble when they face a strong defense, and that defines the Seahawks. Add in the fact that no team has a better home record over the past two seasons as Seattle, and things look dim for Kurt Cousins and company. SEAHAWKS
Sunday night
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Jay Cutler found new life in Miami, but he's now out with injury, and the QB carousel begins in Miami. With Derek Carr back, Oakland is secure. RAIDERS
Monday Night Football
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: If Aaron Rodgers were playing, I'd pick the Packers with no hesitation. His absence, though, as severely limited the offense. The Lions haven't looked too good this season, but their defense should sufficiently shut down the depowered Packers offense enough for the Lions to win. LIONS
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Monday, October 30, 2017
NCAA Week 10 picks
The MAC starts their streak of early week games, and some of those impact the divisional races.
Tues Oct 31
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: The Bobcats are hoping to avoid a Halloween scare as a win keeps pace in the MAC East. The Redhawks shouldn't give them that much of a struggle, as they have not been a good road team this year. OHIO
Wed Nov 1
Central Michigan Chippewas at Western Michigan Broncos: If the Broncos wish to live up to the expectations that last season's amazing season created, they need to win out. Central Michigan is a good start. The Chippewas can be tricky, but they won't be able to keep pace with the powerful Broncos offense. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Thurs Nov 2
Northern Illinois Huskies at #24 Toledo Rockets: Perhaps the most important game to determine the winner of the MAC West. It's Toledo's high-powered offense against the stingy defense of the Huskies. Defenses often win in those bouts, but I'll give a slight edge to Toledo because they play more mistake-free football, and should prevent the kind of devastating turnovers and penalties the Huskies are used to causing in their opponents. TOLEDO
Idaho Vandals at Troy Trojans: Troy keeps marching for their own divisional contention as they face road-struggling Idaho. TROY
Fri Nov 3
#25 Memphis Tigers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Memphis will maintain their lead in the American Athletic West division by demolishing Tulsa, the current conference doormat. MEMPHIS
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls: The Owls find themselves in an unusual place - leading their division. They haven't faced the toughest opposition, though; that begins now. Marshall has chewed up many of their opponents, and I don't see that slowing down. MARSHALL
UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes: Josh Rosen continues his backslide as the Utes defense keep him hustling. UTAH
Sat Nov 4
LSU Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers don't deserve the ranking given them by the national pollsters, as they have not been impressive in key games. No game is more key than this one, and it will be a slaughter. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Georgia Bulldogs: It's tough to beat the Bulldogs at home, and this game is even more crucial. The Bulldogs could win the SEC East with a victory here, and that should keep them motivated. South Carolina can be tricky, but they'll just be overwhelmed by Georgia's offense. GEORGIA
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes: I don't foresee a letdown after the comeback upset against Penn State. Iowa may score first, but this game will be well in the Buckeyes' hands by halftime. OHIO STATE
#4 Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers offense will test the Badgers defense. Indiana may gain an early lead, but Wisconsin will wear away at that. If Indiana leads by more than ten points at halftime, an upset may be possible, but I don't think it'll end that way. WISCONSIN
#5 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans: The Nittany Lions want a strong game to erase their stinging loss to Ohio State. They face the toughest defense in the conference. Michigan State also wants a win after falling to Northwestern last week. I think Penn State has more tools, and should win this game, but the Spartans defense and special teams squads could make this game interesting. PENN STATE in a close win
#6 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack: The Tigers had an extra week to prepare for this game, and Notre Dame showed their defense how to stuff the Wolfpack. The Tigers have the talent to duplicate that, and even escalate it, so NC State will once again find the end zone a difficult target. CLEMSON
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the performance shown by the Irish last week, can Wake imagine they have a chance? Perhaps, but that should fade by the end of the first quarter. NOTRE DAME
#8 UCF Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: UCF gets some tough competition this week. Both teams have strong offenses, but the defense of UCF will be the decider. UCF
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Bedlam has been moved from Thanksgiving weekend, and the importance is clear. The winner practically loses a chance at the conference title, and an Oklahoma win helps their playoff stock. Honestly, I like the Cowboys chances here. They have been playing stronger offense this season, and Jake Rudolph can work miracles. Not taking anything away from Baker Mayfield, but Rudolph just adds a touch of disbelief -- just when a defense thinks they've stopped him, he pulls another surprise out of his hands. This one will chance leads often, and likely rarely see a lead larger than 10 points, but in the end I think the Cowboys will prevail, practically guaranteeing no Big XII representative in the playoffs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Oregon Ducks at #10 Washington Huskies: The Ducks have been abysmal away from Eugene, and the Huskies will make this trip even worse. WASHINGTON
#11 Virginia Tech Hokies at #15 Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes are unbeaten, but they have not been overly impressive in any game. Now their slowly-developing offense faces the tough defense of the Hokies. This is a defensive advantage I like. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Longhorns at #13 TCU Horned Frogs: Watch out here! In past seasons, when TCU loses after a long streak of wins, they collapse, and lose the next game or two. Texas has its strengths, they just haven't been consistent. They could surprise here and knock out TCU, but I'll award it as an upset if so. TCU in a tight contest
#14 Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although Auburn had an extra week to prepare, they haven't been great on the road, so this might end up a trap game. I think the extra week will help them, but this game may be closer than Tigers fans would like. AUBURN
#16 Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Cyclones have only been getting better. West Virginia is a good team, so the Cyclones should not get over-confident, but they should have the tools to churn up yardage on the ground and wear down the Mountaineers defense. IOWA STATE
#17 Stanford Cardinal at #22 Washington State Cougars: Another close dogfight. The Cardinals have an excellent team, but so do the Cougars. Stanford has been improving since their last loss, and we're not sure how the Cougars will respond to last week's loss. Stanford just might be too much for them to take right now. STANFORD
UMass Minutemen at #18 Mississippi State Bulldogs: A nice easy non-conference win for the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
#19 Arizona Wildcats at #21 USC Trojans: Can the Trojans pull off another fourth quarter miracle? They may be too far behind to do so, as the Wildcats offense has been stellar in the past three weeks. I think they will just overwhelm the Trojans, who will run out of tricks to try to get past the Wildcats. ARIZONA
#20 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies: Well, the Bulls get an easy game after their first loss of the season. SOUTH FLORIDA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #23 Michigan Wolverines: The defense of the Wolverines will get them out of jam again, as new QB Brandon Peters will need a bit more time to get comfortable. MICHIGAN
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: Three weeks ago I would have picked the Illini. Not anymore. PURDUE
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers: This will be a contest. The loser is out of contention for the division, while the winner has barely any hope, unless Indiana pulls off the amazing upset. The Wildcats have been looking good, while the Cornhuskers have been too inconsistent, and penalty-prone, to consider them a contender. NORTHWESTERN
Other Games of Interest
East Carolina Pirates at Houston Cougars: Houston needs to win to have any chance at the division title. They should. HOUSTON
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos: Boise State hasn't been as dominant than in years past, but they have the strength to upend the Wolf Pack and remain atop the Mountain West Mountain division.
Tues Oct 31
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Ohio Bobcats: The Bobcats are hoping to avoid a Halloween scare as a win keeps pace in the MAC East. The Redhawks shouldn't give them that much of a struggle, as they have not been a good road team this year. OHIO
Wed Nov 1
Central Michigan Chippewas at Western Michigan Broncos: If the Broncos wish to live up to the expectations that last season's amazing season created, they need to win out. Central Michigan is a good start. The Chippewas can be tricky, but they won't be able to keep pace with the powerful Broncos offense. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Thurs Nov 2
Northern Illinois Huskies at #24 Toledo Rockets: Perhaps the most important game to determine the winner of the MAC West. It's Toledo's high-powered offense against the stingy defense of the Huskies. Defenses often win in those bouts, but I'll give a slight edge to Toledo because they play more mistake-free football, and should prevent the kind of devastating turnovers and penalties the Huskies are used to causing in their opponents. TOLEDO
Idaho Vandals at Troy Trojans: Troy keeps marching for their own divisional contention as they face road-struggling Idaho. TROY
Fri Nov 3
#25 Memphis Tigers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Memphis will maintain their lead in the American Athletic West division by demolishing Tulsa, the current conference doormat. MEMPHIS
Marshall Thundering Herd at Florida Atlantic Owls: The Owls find themselves in an unusual place - leading their division. They haven't faced the toughest opposition, though; that begins now. Marshall has chewed up many of their opponents, and I don't see that slowing down. MARSHALL
UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes: Josh Rosen continues his backslide as the Utes defense keep him hustling. UTAH
Sat Nov 4
LSU Tigers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tigers don't deserve the ranking given them by the national pollsters, as they have not been impressive in key games. No game is more key than this one, and it will be a slaughter. ALABAMA
South Carolina Gamecocks at #2 Georgia Bulldogs: It's tough to beat the Bulldogs at home, and this game is even more crucial. The Bulldogs could win the SEC East with a victory here, and that should keep them motivated. South Carolina can be tricky, but they'll just be overwhelmed by Georgia's offense. GEORGIA
#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes: I don't foresee a letdown after the comeback upset against Penn State. Iowa may score first, but this game will be well in the Buckeyes' hands by halftime. OHIO STATE
#4 Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers: The Hoosiers offense will test the Badgers defense. Indiana may gain an early lead, but Wisconsin will wear away at that. If Indiana leads by more than ten points at halftime, an upset may be possible, but I don't think it'll end that way. WISCONSIN
#5 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans: The Nittany Lions want a strong game to erase their stinging loss to Ohio State. They face the toughest defense in the conference. Michigan State also wants a win after falling to Northwestern last week. I think Penn State has more tools, and should win this game, but the Spartans defense and special teams squads could make this game interesting. PENN STATE in a close win
#6 Clemson Tigers at NC State Wolfpack: The Tigers had an extra week to prepare for this game, and Notre Dame showed their defense how to stuff the Wolfpack. The Tigers have the talent to duplicate that, and even escalate it, so NC State will once again find the end zone a difficult target. CLEMSON
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: After the performance shown by the Irish last week, can Wake imagine they have a chance? Perhaps, but that should fade by the end of the first quarter. NOTRE DAME
#8 UCF Golden Knights at SMU Mustangs: UCF gets some tough competition this week. Both teams have strong offenses, but the defense of UCF will be the decider. UCF
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Bedlam has been moved from Thanksgiving weekend, and the importance is clear. The winner practically loses a chance at the conference title, and an Oklahoma win helps their playoff stock. Honestly, I like the Cowboys chances here. They have been playing stronger offense this season, and Jake Rudolph can work miracles. Not taking anything away from Baker Mayfield, but Rudolph just adds a touch of disbelief -- just when a defense thinks they've stopped him, he pulls another surprise out of his hands. This one will chance leads often, and likely rarely see a lead larger than 10 points, but in the end I think the Cowboys will prevail, practically guaranteeing no Big XII representative in the playoffs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Oregon Ducks at #10 Washington Huskies: The Ducks have been abysmal away from Eugene, and the Huskies will make this trip even worse. WASHINGTON
#11 Virginia Tech Hokies at #15 Miami Hurricanes: The Hurricanes are unbeaten, but they have not been overly impressive in any game. Now their slowly-developing offense faces the tough defense of the Hokies. This is a defensive advantage I like. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Longhorns at #13 TCU Horned Frogs: Watch out here! In past seasons, when TCU loses after a long streak of wins, they collapse, and lose the next game or two. Texas has its strengths, they just haven't been consistent. They could surprise here and knock out TCU, but I'll award it as an upset if so. TCU in a tight contest
#14 Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies: Although Auburn had an extra week to prepare, they haven't been great on the road, so this might end up a trap game. I think the extra week will help them, but this game may be closer than Tigers fans would like. AUBURN
#16 Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers: The Cyclones have only been getting better. West Virginia is a good team, so the Cyclones should not get over-confident, but they should have the tools to churn up yardage on the ground and wear down the Mountaineers defense. IOWA STATE
#17 Stanford Cardinal at #22 Washington State Cougars: Another close dogfight. The Cardinals have an excellent team, but so do the Cougars. Stanford has been improving since their last loss, and we're not sure how the Cougars will respond to last week's loss. Stanford just might be too much for them to take right now. STANFORD
UMass Minutemen at #18 Mississippi State Bulldogs: A nice easy non-conference win for the Bulldogs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
#19 Arizona Wildcats at #21 USC Trojans: Can the Trojans pull off another fourth quarter miracle? They may be too far behind to do so, as the Wildcats offense has been stellar in the past three weeks. I think they will just overwhelm the Trojans, who will run out of tricks to try to get past the Wildcats. ARIZONA
#20 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies: Well, the Bulls get an easy game after their first loss of the season. SOUTH FLORIDA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #23 Michigan Wolverines: The defense of the Wolverines will get them out of jam again, as new QB Brandon Peters will need a bit more time to get comfortable. MICHIGAN
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers: Three weeks ago I would have picked the Illini. Not anymore. PURDUE
Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers: This will be a contest. The loser is out of contention for the division, while the winner has barely any hope, unless Indiana pulls off the amazing upset. The Wildcats have been looking good, while the Cornhuskers have been too inconsistent, and penalty-prone, to consider them a contender. NORTHWESTERN
Other Games of Interest
East Carolina Pirates at Houston Cougars: Houston needs to win to have any chance at the division title. They should. HOUSTON
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos: Boise State hasn't been as dominant than in years past, but they have the strength to upend the Wolf Pack and remain atop the Mountain West Mountain division.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
NCAA Week 9 results and Top 25
This week I drop my Big Ten Report and the Poor and Great Performers to concentrate on the conference and division races. As that gets smaller and less complicated, the Performers will return.
We had several upsets this week, which will be covered in the Upset Alert. Three of those affected unbeaten teams, knocking us down to five unbeatens.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) [3]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [5]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0) [4]
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) [2]
6. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [6]
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) [9]
8. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [7]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1) [10]
10. Washington Huskies (7-1) [11]
11. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) [12]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [13]
13. TCU Horned Frogs (7-1) [8]
14. Auburn Tigers (6-2) [15]
15. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) [17]
16. Iowa State Cyclones (6-2) [19]
17. Stanford Cardinal (6-2) [18]
18. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-2) [20]
19. Arizona Wildcats (6-2) [25]
20. South Florida Bulls (7-1) [14]
21. USC Trojans (7-2) [NR]
22. Washington State Cougars (7-2) [16]
23. Michigan Wolverines (6-2) [24]
24. Toledo Rockets (7-1) [NR]
25. Memphis Tigers (7-1) [NR]
Dropped out: North Carolina State Wolfpack [#21], West Virginia Mountaineers [#22], Michigan State Spartans [#23]
On the Edge: South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3), Ohio Bobcats (6-2), Northern Illinois Huskies (6-2), Marshall Thundering Herd (6-2), Northwestern Wildcats (5-3)
Upset Alert
There were so many, I'll examine them by conference. In the ACC, Pittsburgh exposed some of Virginia's weaknesses, which may cost them any chance at the division title if other teams follow suit. Pittsburgh, who hasn't been showing excessive offense this season, found deficiencies at defensive positions that allowed them to move the ball and score 31 points.
In the American Athletic, previously unbeaten South Florida could not keep pace with the Houston Cougars. The Bulls attempted a fourth quarter comeback, but they ran out of time. Houston showed that if you could get around the Bulls defense and establish an early lead, the Bulls offense may not be designed to come from behind.
The Big XII lost their only remaining unbeaten team, as TCU fell to Iowa State. The Cyclones knocked off their second unbeaten team in three weeks, and are improving every week. This time their defense ruled, as they held TCU to seven points and less than 300 yards.
Conference USA saw a change in division leadership, as Florida International knocked off Marshall to make Florida Atlantic the only team without a conference loss. The Golden Panthers scored on nearly every possession, frustrating the Herd's defense at every turn.
The Mountain West saw two upsets. Air Force handed Colorado State their first conference loss, awarding sole possession of the Mountain Division lead to Boise State. Air Force's offense woke up for this game, and rolled over the Rams. At night, Fresno State, who was running away with the West Division title, was upset by UNLV, making that division much more competitive.
Arizona continued to roll in Pac-12 play as they handed Washington State their second loss. That leaves Washington as the sole one-loss team in the conference, and nearly assures that no Pac-12 team will play in the playoffs.
Races for the Crown
From now until the last week of the season, I will be looking at the conference and divisional races and providing the current status, and what scenarios are needed to teams to win (or be eliminated).
Atlantic Coast Coastal: Miami leads the division. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia are the only teams mathematically still in the hunt. Virginia is eliminated by either a Miami win or Virginia loss. Miami faces Virginia Tech and Virginia faces Georgia Tech this week, so this week's game could go a long way to determine who remains in the hunt.
Atlantic Coast Atlantic: NC State still leads. Louisville and Florida State are the only teams out of the hunt, but it's precarious for many. A win by NC State and a loss take out Boston College and Wake Forest. Clemson faces NC State this week. A Wolfpack win practically guarantees a lock on the title. A Clemson win helps everyone.
American Athletic East: UCF leads. It's practically a two-team race. Cincy is out, and everyone but South Florida would be eliminated with a UCF win or a loss. UCF plays SMU, so it won't be an easy win, but a Golden Knights win serves two purposes: making it a two-team race with South Florida, and putting SMU's divisional chances at risk.
American Athletic West: Memphis leads, but only by half a game over SMU. SMU has three tough games in a row, so Memphis likes that. Tulsa is already eliminated, and Tulane will be out with a loss or Memphis win. The combination of a Memphis win and a loss knocks out Navy and Houston, so that SMU game this week gets even more important.
Big XII: Iowa State's win creates a 4-way logjam at the top. It may be one of them, as Texas Tech, Kansas, and Baylor are all out, and Kansas State is out with one more loss. There are too many potentials to discuss scenarios, but by beating both TCU and Oklahoma Iowa State controls their own destiny.
Big Ten West: Wisconsin controls this one. They have already beaten Nebraska and Northwestern, the two teams within two games of them. Iowa is three games back and faces Ohio State this week. Basically, a Wisconsin win this week clinches the title, and they face Indiana, who has failed to win a Big Ten game this season (despite playing many opponents close).
Big Ten East: Ohio State's defeat of Penn State and Michigan State's loss to Northwestern gives the Buckeyes lone possession of the lead. Indiana is out, and both Maryland and Rutgers will be out of contention with a loss or Buckeyes win. Penn State and Michigan need the Buckeyes to lose twice to get a chance for the division title. Ironically, since the Spartans still play the Buckeyes, Michigan State can win the division if they win out.
Conference USA East: Florida Atlantic leads the division. All of the teams are still potentially in the hunt, but a loss or Owls win eliminates half of them. The other teams all face Florida Atlantic in upcoming weeks (yes, the Owls enter their toughest stretch), so this division will get shaken up.
Conference USA West: North Texas leads the division. UTEP is out. Rice is out with a loss or North Texas win. Southern Miss and UAB need North Texas to lose twice in three remaining conference games. Since two of those are against UTEP and Rice, that is not likely. Louisiana Tech is really the only team with a chance. They need to beat North Texas this week and win out.
MAC West: Toledo and Northern Illinois are both unbeaten in the division. Ball State and Eastern Michigan are already out of contention, and Central Michigan loses their chances with a loss and a win by EITHER Toledo or Northern Illinois. Western Michigan faces both leaders in the last two weeks, so their chances are slim. This may turn into a two-team race, and they play each other this week. The winner of that game gains the lead and the upper hand, as the loser would need the winner to lose twice.
MAC East: Akron leads by a half game over Ohio. All of the teams are in, but half of them are out with a loss or Akron win. Akron still faces the other two contenders, Miami Ohio and Ohio, in the next two weeks. Winning out seals the division.
Mountain West West: Fresno State leads, but their loss this week makes it closer and more interesting. Hawaii and San Jose State are out. Nevada is out with a loss or Fresno State win. UNLV and San Diego State needs Fresno State to lose two of their three remaining conference games, while winning all of their remaining conference games. Not a likely scenario.
Mountain West Mountain: Thanks to a Colorado State loss, Boise State holds sole possession of the lead. New Mexico is out, and Utah State is out with a loss or Boise State win. Boise faces Nevada this week, so that win is likely. Colorado State faces Boise the following week, so a win there helps their chances. Wyoming and Air Force need Boise State to lose twice
Pac-12 North: Stanford has a half-game lead over Washington. Stanford faces both Washington State and Washington in the next two weeks, and those are the three teams competing for the title. The next two weeks will determine the winner.
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead over Arizona. Utah and Colorado are out, and UCLA is out with a loss or USC win. Arizona State needs USC to lose twice, which seems unlikely. That leaves Arizona, who is gaining strength and faces USC in two weeks. A Wildcat win puts them in the drivers seat.
SEC West: Alabama leads, and they face three of the four teams remaining in contention. A&M is out with a loss or Alabama win. Alabama faces LSU this week, and a win would remove them from contention. They then face Mississippi State, with the same situation. That leaves Auburn, who would have to win all of their remaining games before beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl in the last week.
SEC East: Georgia leads by two games, and faces a situation similar to Wisconsin. They face South Carolina this week, which is the team in second place. If the Bulldogs beat them, they nearly clinch the division. They WILL clinch if Kentucky loses, otherwise the contest the following week between Kentucky and Georgia will likely determine the winner.
Sun Belt: Arkansas State and Appalachian State share the lead right now. They do not face each other, so we have an interesting situation. Arkansas State has the better remaining schedule, as they only team with a winning record remaining is a contest against Troy on the last week. Only Coastal Carolina is out, but four others get removed with a loss and a win by EITHER Arkansas State or Appalachian State, so next week the contenders should dwindle significantly.
We had several upsets this week, which will be covered in the Upset Alert. Three of those affected unbeaten teams, knocking us down to five unbeatens.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) [3]
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1) [5]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (8-0) [4]
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) [2]
6. Clemson Tigers (7-1) [6]
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) [9]
8. UCF Golden Knights (7-0) [7]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1) [10]
10. Washington Huskies (7-1) [11]
11. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-1) [12]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) [13]
13. TCU Horned Frogs (7-1) [8]
14. Auburn Tigers (6-2) [15]
15. Miami Hurricanes (7-0) [17]
16. Iowa State Cyclones (6-2) [19]
17. Stanford Cardinal (6-2) [18]
18. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-2) [20]
19. Arizona Wildcats (6-2) [25]
20. South Florida Bulls (7-1) [14]
21. USC Trojans (7-2) [NR]
22. Washington State Cougars (7-2) [16]
23. Michigan Wolverines (6-2) [24]
24. Toledo Rockets (7-1) [NR]
25. Memphis Tigers (7-1) [NR]
Dropped out: North Carolina State Wolfpack [#21], West Virginia Mountaineers [#22], Michigan State Spartans [#23]
On the Edge: South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2), Boise State Broncos (6-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3), Ohio Bobcats (6-2), Northern Illinois Huskies (6-2), Marshall Thundering Herd (6-2), Northwestern Wildcats (5-3)
Upset Alert
There were so many, I'll examine them by conference. In the ACC, Pittsburgh exposed some of Virginia's weaknesses, which may cost them any chance at the division title if other teams follow suit. Pittsburgh, who hasn't been showing excessive offense this season, found deficiencies at defensive positions that allowed them to move the ball and score 31 points.
In the American Athletic, previously unbeaten South Florida could not keep pace with the Houston Cougars. The Bulls attempted a fourth quarter comeback, but they ran out of time. Houston showed that if you could get around the Bulls defense and establish an early lead, the Bulls offense may not be designed to come from behind.
The Big XII lost their only remaining unbeaten team, as TCU fell to Iowa State. The Cyclones knocked off their second unbeaten team in three weeks, and are improving every week. This time their defense ruled, as they held TCU to seven points and less than 300 yards.
Conference USA saw a change in division leadership, as Florida International knocked off Marshall to make Florida Atlantic the only team without a conference loss. The Golden Panthers scored on nearly every possession, frustrating the Herd's defense at every turn.
The Mountain West saw two upsets. Air Force handed Colorado State their first conference loss, awarding sole possession of the Mountain Division lead to Boise State. Air Force's offense woke up for this game, and rolled over the Rams. At night, Fresno State, who was running away with the West Division title, was upset by UNLV, making that division much more competitive.
Arizona continued to roll in Pac-12 play as they handed Washington State their second loss. That leaves Washington as the sole one-loss team in the conference, and nearly assures that no Pac-12 team will play in the playoffs.
Races for the Crown
From now until the last week of the season, I will be looking at the conference and divisional races and providing the current status, and what scenarios are needed to teams to win (or be eliminated).
Atlantic Coast Coastal: Miami leads the division. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia are the only teams mathematically still in the hunt. Virginia is eliminated by either a Miami win or Virginia loss. Miami faces Virginia Tech and Virginia faces Georgia Tech this week, so this week's game could go a long way to determine who remains in the hunt.
Atlantic Coast Atlantic: NC State still leads. Louisville and Florida State are the only teams out of the hunt, but it's precarious for many. A win by NC State and a loss take out Boston College and Wake Forest. Clemson faces NC State this week. A Wolfpack win practically guarantees a lock on the title. A Clemson win helps everyone.
American Athletic East: UCF leads. It's practically a two-team race. Cincy is out, and everyone but South Florida would be eliminated with a UCF win or a loss. UCF plays SMU, so it won't be an easy win, but a Golden Knights win serves two purposes: making it a two-team race with South Florida, and putting SMU's divisional chances at risk.
American Athletic West: Memphis leads, but only by half a game over SMU. SMU has three tough games in a row, so Memphis likes that. Tulsa is already eliminated, and Tulane will be out with a loss or Memphis win. The combination of a Memphis win and a loss knocks out Navy and Houston, so that SMU game this week gets even more important.
Big XII: Iowa State's win creates a 4-way logjam at the top. It may be one of them, as Texas Tech, Kansas, and Baylor are all out, and Kansas State is out with one more loss. There are too many potentials to discuss scenarios, but by beating both TCU and Oklahoma Iowa State controls their own destiny.
Big Ten West: Wisconsin controls this one. They have already beaten Nebraska and Northwestern, the two teams within two games of them. Iowa is three games back and faces Ohio State this week. Basically, a Wisconsin win this week clinches the title, and they face Indiana, who has failed to win a Big Ten game this season (despite playing many opponents close).
Big Ten East: Ohio State's defeat of Penn State and Michigan State's loss to Northwestern gives the Buckeyes lone possession of the lead. Indiana is out, and both Maryland and Rutgers will be out of contention with a loss or Buckeyes win. Penn State and Michigan need the Buckeyes to lose twice to get a chance for the division title. Ironically, since the Spartans still play the Buckeyes, Michigan State can win the division if they win out.
Conference USA East: Florida Atlantic leads the division. All of the teams are still potentially in the hunt, but a loss or Owls win eliminates half of them. The other teams all face Florida Atlantic in upcoming weeks (yes, the Owls enter their toughest stretch), so this division will get shaken up.
Conference USA West: North Texas leads the division. UTEP is out. Rice is out with a loss or North Texas win. Southern Miss and UAB need North Texas to lose twice in three remaining conference games. Since two of those are against UTEP and Rice, that is not likely. Louisiana Tech is really the only team with a chance. They need to beat North Texas this week and win out.
MAC West: Toledo and Northern Illinois are both unbeaten in the division. Ball State and Eastern Michigan are already out of contention, and Central Michigan loses their chances with a loss and a win by EITHER Toledo or Northern Illinois. Western Michigan faces both leaders in the last two weeks, so their chances are slim. This may turn into a two-team race, and they play each other this week. The winner of that game gains the lead and the upper hand, as the loser would need the winner to lose twice.
MAC East: Akron leads by a half game over Ohio. All of the teams are in, but half of them are out with a loss or Akron win. Akron still faces the other two contenders, Miami Ohio and Ohio, in the next two weeks. Winning out seals the division.
Mountain West West: Fresno State leads, but their loss this week makes it closer and more interesting. Hawaii and San Jose State are out. Nevada is out with a loss or Fresno State win. UNLV and San Diego State needs Fresno State to lose two of their three remaining conference games, while winning all of their remaining conference games. Not a likely scenario.
Mountain West Mountain: Thanks to a Colorado State loss, Boise State holds sole possession of the lead. New Mexico is out, and Utah State is out with a loss or Boise State win. Boise faces Nevada this week, so that win is likely. Colorado State faces Boise the following week, so a win there helps their chances. Wyoming and Air Force need Boise State to lose twice
Pac-12 North: Stanford has a half-game lead over Washington. Stanford faces both Washington State and Washington in the next two weeks, and those are the three teams competing for the title. The next two weeks will determine the winner.
Pac-12 South: USC holds a half-game lead over Arizona. Utah and Colorado are out, and UCLA is out with a loss or USC win. Arizona State needs USC to lose twice, which seems unlikely. That leaves Arizona, who is gaining strength and faces USC in two weeks. A Wildcat win puts them in the drivers seat.
SEC West: Alabama leads, and they face three of the four teams remaining in contention. A&M is out with a loss or Alabama win. Alabama faces LSU this week, and a win would remove them from contention. They then face Mississippi State, with the same situation. That leaves Auburn, who would have to win all of their remaining games before beating Alabama in the Iron Bowl in the last week.
SEC East: Georgia leads by two games, and faces a situation similar to Wisconsin. They face South Carolina this week, which is the team in second place. If the Bulldogs beat them, they nearly clinch the division. They WILL clinch if Kentucky loses, otherwise the contest the following week between Kentucky and Georgia will likely determine the winner.
Sun Belt: Arkansas State and Appalachian State share the lead right now. They do not face each other, so we have an interesting situation. Arkansas State has the better remaining schedule, as they only team with a winning record remaining is a contest against Troy on the last week. Only Coastal Carolina is out, but four others get removed with a loss and a win by EITHER Arkansas State or Appalachian State, so next week the contenders should dwindle significantly.
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
NCAA Week 9 picks
Some of the games are setting teams up for divisional titles, so things get exciting from this point on! We have plenty of Top 25 match-ups, too, just to add excitement.
Thurs Oct 26
#18 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers: This is the time of year for Pac-12 teams to be concerned about traveling to Corvallis. The Beavers can be tough hombres at home late in the season, and picking off a ranked opponent is common. I think Stanford will avoid the upset, but it'll be an uncomfortably close game. STANFORD
Fri Oct 27
Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles: BC won their first conference game last week. The Seminoles are still looking for theirs. Florida State's offense still plays like they are confused, and the rushing Eagles defense won't help that. BOSTON COLLEGE
Sat Oct 28
#2 Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: This will be the best game of the day! Penn State's Saquon Barkley is an offensive storm, who can hurt you running, catching, and even passing. Aside from him, though, the Nittany Lions offense is limited to some decent tight ends as targets for QB Trace McSorley. The Buckeyes have only improved since their loss to Oklahoma, and their defense is as stout as ever. They will target Barkley, and force Penn State to beat them with other weapons. I predict that the Buckeyes will hold Barkley to less than 100 yards rushing and less than 160 total yards. Since the Buckeyes offense has really perked up since the Oklahoma loss, that should be enough to beat them. OHIO STATE in the upset
#3 Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators: The Gators often play Georgia tough in the Swamp, but this year their toolbox is a bit sparse. Georgia is an offensive beast this year, and their defense isn't bad, either. GEORGIA
#4 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini: With Wisconsin's defense, I'm not sure Illinois will score in the double digits. WISCONSIN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #6 Clemson Tigers: This should be a defensive battle. Clemson has the best defense in the conference, and the Yellow Jackets always put a high premium on strong defenses. I'd be surprised if more than 55 total points are scored, but more of them will be scored by Clemson. CLEMSON
Austin Peay (FCS) at #7 UCF Golden Knights: Do I really need to announce a pick here? UCF
#8 TCU Horned Frogs at #19 Iowa State Cyclones: This might be one of the biggest challenges TCU faces, and they still have to face the Sooners. Iowa State is usually near the bottom of the conference, so the idea of preparing for a Cyclone attack is strange. Iowa State's strength is no longer a surprise, but how well will TCU prepare? I think the Horned Frogs have the better team, but watch out for a home field upset. TCU
#21 North Carolina State Wolfpack at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: NC State leads their division, which is an uncommon place for them. It might be hard for them to handle the sudden high expectations. Notre Dame is more used to this situation, and has a tough offense to make things difficult for the Wolfpack. NOTRE DAME
#10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #22 West Virginia Mountaineers: This is another potential upset. Oklahoma State has been an offensive juggernaut, but few people have noticed that West Virginia is only 3 points behind them! The Cowboys defense is tough, but if the Cowboys get sloppy, nobody forces turnovers better in the Big XII than West Virginia! OKLAHOMA STATE
UCLA Bruins at #11 Washington Huskies: Who owns the best defense in the Pac-12? Washington, by far. That defense will frustrate Josh Rosen and company, allowing for an easy Huskies victory. WASHINGTON
Duke Blue Devils at #12 Virginia Tech Hokies: Duke was a force early in the season, but conference play has not been kind to them. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma Sooners: The Raiders have a decent offense, but their defense is porous. The Sooners should light up the scoreboard on this one! OKLAHOMA
Houston Cougars at #14 South Florida Bulls: Houston's sporadic offense will have a hard time getting past the stingy Bulls defense. It might take a little while for the Bulls offense to perk up, but they'll demolish Houston in the second half. SOUTH FLORIDA
#16 Washington State Cougars at #25 Arizona Wildcats: This pairs the weaker spot on each team. Washington State has been a vicious 6-0 at home, but only 1-1 on the road (and they have mostly road games left on their schedule) while Arizona has been perfect on the road but only a mediocre 2-2 at home. Which record will survive? Arizona's offense has been stellar recently, but the Cougars have a fierce defense. I think that defense will carry the team to victory. WASHINGTON STATE
#17 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels: The Hurricanes might actually win a game that isn't close for a change. MIAMI
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies aren't ranked, but this could be a trap game for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs aren't great on the road, and the Aggies offense is improving. The Bulldogs rely too heavily on big plays, and I think the Aggies can stop many of those. TEXAS A&M in the upset
#23 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has played some close games this season, but come up short on too many of them. The Spartans don't mind close games - their defense is built for that. Their offense is good at chewing up clock if they have a lead in the fourth quarter. MICHIGAN STATE
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 Michigan Wolverines: Rutgers has won two straight, but that's where the streak ends. Michigan's defense will stuff the Knights, and perhaps generate some turnovers. Their offense might need it, as they need great field position in order to score. They'll get it. MICHIGAN
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins: Despite the win over Texas, Big Ten conference play has been cruel to Maryland. Indiana's high-powered offense will turn up the screws. INDIANA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While each team is practically out of the divisional race, the loser is mathematically eliminated. They will each battle hard, but Iowa's recent offensive struggles make them a less likely winning candidate. MINNESOTA
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers: This is an interesting game. Nebraska has a lousy defense, which should help a struggling Boilermakers offense. On the other hand, Purdue's defense is stout, which will give trouble to an equally-struggling Nebraska offense. Purdue also wants to clear their throat from the embarrassing loss to Rutgers last week. I see an upset brewing. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Louisville Cardinals at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Can Wake's defense slow Lamar Jackson? Let's face it, he's most of Louisville's offense, so stopping him is priority. I think Wake will command this game at halftime, but Louisville will come storming back. LOUISVILLE
Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt loves to play spoiler, but Boston College already did that last week to Virginia. Now, the Cavs want to pick themselves up and dust themselves off, and a dusting of Pitt would be just the thing. VIRGINIA
Thurs Oct 26
#18 Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers: This is the time of year for Pac-12 teams to be concerned about traveling to Corvallis. The Beavers can be tough hombres at home late in the season, and picking off a ranked opponent is common. I think Stanford will avoid the upset, but it'll be an uncomfortably close game. STANFORD
Fri Oct 27
Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles: BC won their first conference game last week. The Seminoles are still looking for theirs. Florida State's offense still plays like they are confused, and the rushing Eagles defense won't help that. BOSTON COLLEGE
Sat Oct 28
#2 Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: This will be the best game of the day! Penn State's Saquon Barkley is an offensive storm, who can hurt you running, catching, and even passing. Aside from him, though, the Nittany Lions offense is limited to some decent tight ends as targets for QB Trace McSorley. The Buckeyes have only improved since their loss to Oklahoma, and their defense is as stout as ever. They will target Barkley, and force Penn State to beat them with other weapons. I predict that the Buckeyes will hold Barkley to less than 100 yards rushing and less than 160 total yards. Since the Buckeyes offense has really perked up since the Oklahoma loss, that should be enough to beat them. OHIO STATE in the upset
#3 Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators: The Gators often play Georgia tough in the Swamp, but this year their toolbox is a bit sparse. Georgia is an offensive beast this year, and their defense isn't bad, either. GEORGIA
#4 Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini: With Wisconsin's defense, I'm not sure Illinois will score in the double digits. WISCONSIN
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #6 Clemson Tigers: This should be a defensive battle. Clemson has the best defense in the conference, and the Yellow Jackets always put a high premium on strong defenses. I'd be surprised if more than 55 total points are scored, but more of them will be scored by Clemson. CLEMSON
Austin Peay (FCS) at #7 UCF Golden Knights: Do I really need to announce a pick here? UCF
#8 TCU Horned Frogs at #19 Iowa State Cyclones: This might be one of the biggest challenges TCU faces, and they still have to face the Sooners. Iowa State is usually near the bottom of the conference, so the idea of preparing for a Cyclone attack is strange. Iowa State's strength is no longer a surprise, but how well will TCU prepare? I think the Horned Frogs have the better team, but watch out for a home field upset. TCU
#21 North Carolina State Wolfpack at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: NC State leads their division, which is an uncommon place for them. It might be hard for them to handle the sudden high expectations. Notre Dame is more used to this situation, and has a tough offense to make things difficult for the Wolfpack. NOTRE DAME
#10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #22 West Virginia Mountaineers: This is another potential upset. Oklahoma State has been an offensive juggernaut, but few people have noticed that West Virginia is only 3 points behind them! The Cowboys defense is tough, but if the Cowboys get sloppy, nobody forces turnovers better in the Big XII than West Virginia! OKLAHOMA STATE
UCLA Bruins at #11 Washington Huskies: Who owns the best defense in the Pac-12? Washington, by far. That defense will frustrate Josh Rosen and company, allowing for an easy Huskies victory. WASHINGTON
Duke Blue Devils at #12 Virginia Tech Hokies: Duke was a force early in the season, but conference play has not been kind to them. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #13 Oklahoma Sooners: The Raiders have a decent offense, but their defense is porous. The Sooners should light up the scoreboard on this one! OKLAHOMA
Houston Cougars at #14 South Florida Bulls: Houston's sporadic offense will have a hard time getting past the stingy Bulls defense. It might take a little while for the Bulls offense to perk up, but they'll demolish Houston in the second half. SOUTH FLORIDA
#16 Washington State Cougars at #25 Arizona Wildcats: This pairs the weaker spot on each team. Washington State has been a vicious 6-0 at home, but only 1-1 on the road (and they have mostly road games left on their schedule) while Arizona has been perfect on the road but only a mediocre 2-2 at home. Which record will survive? Arizona's offense has been stellar recently, but the Cougars have a fierce defense. I think that defense will carry the team to victory. WASHINGTON STATE
#17 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels: The Hurricanes might actually win a game that isn't close for a change. MIAMI
#20 Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies aren't ranked, but this could be a trap game for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs aren't great on the road, and the Aggies offense is improving. The Bulldogs rely too heavily on big plays, and I think the Aggies can stop many of those. TEXAS A&M in the upset
#23 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has played some close games this season, but come up short on too many of them. The Spartans don't mind close games - their defense is built for that. Their offense is good at chewing up clock if they have a lead in the fourth quarter. MICHIGAN STATE
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 Michigan Wolverines: Rutgers has won two straight, but that's where the streak ends. Michigan's defense will stuff the Knights, and perhaps generate some turnovers. Their offense might need it, as they need great field position in order to score. They'll get it. MICHIGAN
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins: Despite the win over Texas, Big Ten conference play has been cruel to Maryland. Indiana's high-powered offense will turn up the screws. INDIANA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Iowa Hawkeyes: While each team is practically out of the divisional race, the loser is mathematically eliminated. They will each battle hard, but Iowa's recent offensive struggles make them a less likely winning candidate. MINNESOTA
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers: This is an interesting game. Nebraska has a lousy defense, which should help a struggling Boilermakers offense. On the other hand, Purdue's defense is stout, which will give trouble to an equally-struggling Nebraska offense. Purdue also wants to clear their throat from the embarrassing loss to Rutgers last week. I see an upset brewing. PURDUE
Other Games of Interest
Louisville Cardinals at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Can Wake's defense slow Lamar Jackson? Let's face it, he's most of Louisville's offense, so stopping him is priority. I think Wake will command this game at halftime, but Louisville will come storming back. LOUISVILLE
Virginia Cavaliers at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt loves to play spoiler, but Boston College already did that last week to Virginia. Now, the Cavs want to pick themselves up and dust themselves off, and a dusting of Pitt would be just the thing. VIRGINIA
Sunday, October 22, 2017
NCAA Week 8 results and Top 25
We had some upsets this week, but none affected the unbeaten teams. Some affected Top 25 teams, so we had some shakeup.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) [2]
3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [3]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (7-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [5]
6. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [6]
7. UCF Golden Knights (6-0) [7]
8. TCU Horned Frogs (7-0) [8]
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [10]
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) [9]
11. Washington Huskies (6-1) [11]
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) [14]
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [12]
14. South Florida Bulls (7-0) [13]
15. Auburn Tigers (6-2) [17]
16. Washington State Cougars (7-1) [19]
17. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) [20]
18. Stanford Cardinal (5-2) [18]
19. Iowa State Cyclones (5-2) [NR]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2) [NR]
21. North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-1) [21]
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) [22]
23. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [25]
24. Michigan Wolverines (5-2) [16]
25. Arizona Wildcats (5-2) [NR]
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#15], Texas Longhorns [#23], Utah Utes [#24]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (6-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Toledo Rockets (6-1), South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2), Ohio Bobcats (6-2), Memphis Tigers (6-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-3), Boise State Broncos (5-2)
Big Ten Report
Big games for Wisconsin and Penn State. Wisconsin has put themselves in good place to win their division. Iowa continues their struggles in Big Ten play, although it took a failed drive in overtime to lose this time. Purdue failed a two-point conversion to send their game into overtime, giving Rutgers their second consecutive victory. Illinois nearly spoiled Minnesota's day, who barely pulled out a victory at home. The Spartans offense sputtered against Indiana, but their defense saved the day.
Upset Alert
PITTSBURGH gained their first ACC victory while continuing Duke's conference woes. BOSTON COLLEGE dominated Virginia, giving the Cavaliers their first conference loss. Virginia was playing to keep pace with Virginia Tech and Miami, but this loss severely hampers their divisional chances. Kentucky was competing for the SEC East title, but MISSISSIPPI STATE sunk those plans with a devastating defeat of the Wildcats.
Out west, Utah fell out of the Top 25 after being toppled by ARIZONA STATE. San Diego State, on the cusp of the Top 25, was completely dominated by FRESNO STATE.
One game was a near upset. Charlotte, FCS emigrant who has not beaten an FBS team, forced UAB to overtime before finally falling.
Poor Performers
KANSAS, rarely a strong performer, had no offense show up at all this week. Defense was lacking for several teams this week, including Virginia, North Carolina, and North Texas. WEST VIRGINIA's defense lost power in the fourth quarter, nearly allowing Baylor the chance to win their first game of the season.
Two teams were poor overall, and it proved disastrous. KENTUCKY couldn't generate any offense, and failed to slow the Mississippi State Bulldogs. USC, whose offense had been struggling often and surviving on some lucky plays, completely derailed this weekend. Notre Dame shredded them, and Sam Darnold's Heisman hopes evaporated.
Great Performers
PENN STATE brought their high-powered offense against Michigan's vaulted defense, and Michigan could not keep up. Great defenses were exhibited by Indiana, UConn, and Arizona State. Overall, UCLA had a great day, suppressing the Oregon offense and finding the kind of offense that people raved about prior to the season.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) [1]
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) [2]
3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [3]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (7-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [5]
6. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [6]
7. UCF Golden Knights (6-0) [7]
8. TCU Horned Frogs (7-0) [8]
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1) [10]
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1) [9]
11. Washington Huskies (6-1) [11]
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1) [14]
13. Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) [12]
14. South Florida Bulls (7-0) [13]
15. Auburn Tigers (6-2) [17]
16. Washington State Cougars (7-1) [19]
17. Miami Hurricanes (6-0) [20]
18. Stanford Cardinal (5-2) [18]
19. Iowa State Cyclones (5-2) [NR]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-2) [NR]
21. North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-1) [21]
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2) [22]
23. Michigan State Spartans (6-1) [25]
24. Michigan Wolverines (5-2) [16]
25. Arizona Wildcats (5-2) [NR]
Dropped off: USC Trojans [#15], Texas Longhorns [#23], Utah Utes [#24]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (6-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Toledo Rockets (6-1), South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2), Ohio Bobcats (6-2), Memphis Tigers (6-1), Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-3), Boise State Broncos (5-2)
Big Ten Report
Big games for Wisconsin and Penn State. Wisconsin has put themselves in good place to win their division. Iowa continues their struggles in Big Ten play, although it took a failed drive in overtime to lose this time. Purdue failed a two-point conversion to send their game into overtime, giving Rutgers their second consecutive victory. Illinois nearly spoiled Minnesota's day, who barely pulled out a victory at home. The Spartans offense sputtered against Indiana, but their defense saved the day.
Upset Alert
PITTSBURGH gained their first ACC victory while continuing Duke's conference woes. BOSTON COLLEGE dominated Virginia, giving the Cavaliers their first conference loss. Virginia was playing to keep pace with Virginia Tech and Miami, but this loss severely hampers their divisional chances. Kentucky was competing for the SEC East title, but MISSISSIPPI STATE sunk those plans with a devastating defeat of the Wildcats.
Out west, Utah fell out of the Top 25 after being toppled by ARIZONA STATE. San Diego State, on the cusp of the Top 25, was completely dominated by FRESNO STATE.
One game was a near upset. Charlotte, FCS emigrant who has not beaten an FBS team, forced UAB to overtime before finally falling.
Poor Performers
KANSAS, rarely a strong performer, had no offense show up at all this week. Defense was lacking for several teams this week, including Virginia, North Carolina, and North Texas. WEST VIRGINIA's defense lost power in the fourth quarter, nearly allowing Baylor the chance to win their first game of the season.
Two teams were poor overall, and it proved disastrous. KENTUCKY couldn't generate any offense, and failed to slow the Mississippi State Bulldogs. USC, whose offense had been struggling often and surviving on some lucky plays, completely derailed this weekend. Notre Dame shredded them, and Sam Darnold's Heisman hopes evaporated.
Great Performers
PENN STATE brought their high-powered offense against Michigan's vaulted defense, and Michigan could not keep up. Great defenses were exhibited by Indiana, UConn, and Arizona State. Overall, UCLA had a great day, suppressing the Oregon offense and finding the kind of offense that people raved about prior to the season.
Friday, October 20, 2017
NFL 2017 Week 7 picks
I've had two consecutive weeks of 50% or worse in my picks. That almost never happens! Along with the fact that we have no unbeaten teams after only 6 weeks, my record this season demonstrates how strange this NFL season has been.
I made my picks on Wed but had no time to post this. I felt good about this week, because nearly all of the games seemed easy to pick. In the interim the Thursday night game was played, and my pick, the Kansas City Chiefs, lost. In fact, I figured that game would have the largest margin of victory. Of course, I also thought that Derek Carr would not be playing, but I still would have picked the Chiefs. Not exactly an auspicious beginning to the week.
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: With all of the strangeness going on this season, the Rams have emerged as a Top Five team. Quite a turnaround in just a couple of years! Their defense is tough, and should give the Cardinals offense problems. Since the Cardinals offense can sometimes give THEMSELVES problems, that does not bode well for Arizona. RAMS
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings: For the second straight week the Ravens face an NFC North team. After the loss to the Bears, I doubt they are looking forward to this one. The Vikings beat Green Bay last week, but that had more to do with the loss of Aaron Rodgers than the Vikings. Still, their offense moves well, especially the running game, and with a thin bench for the Ravens, a long drawn-out running game may wear them down. VIKINGS
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: The Bears won in overtime last week, but this game won't even get to overtime. The Panthers have a very efficient offense. They haven't been as consistent as they should be this season, but depleted Bears defense should help that offense move this week. Mitch Trubisky is playing better than Mike Glennon, but it will still take the Bears some time to have the offense move effectively. PANTHERS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are stuggling without Andrew Luck under center, and now it seems uncertain if he will be returning at all this season. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is having one of their most successful seasons ever. JAGUARS
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The Packers offense is stalled without Aaron Rodgers, while the Saints offense flies. With the number of injuries among the Packers defense, that offense will get plenty of chances this week. SAINTS
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: This game could be close. Games between these rivals are often high-scoring affairs, with frequent lead changes. I don't think one will be high-scoring, but I do figure we'll see a close game with each team leading at least three times in the game. Who will emerge victorious? I like the Dolphins, just because they seem better at managing the clock. If they have the lead late in the fourth, they will choose plays to ensure the Jets don't have enough time to get a final score. DOLPHINS
Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Okay, Big Ben seems to have completely shaken off the residue of his career-high five interception game. The team looked strong last week. The Bengals continue to struggle on offense, and its a mystery. Most of the players are the same ones they had last year, and Dalton has been leading this offense for years. I do expect the Steelers defense to exploit every confusion and miscommunication caused by the Bengals, though. STEELERS
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: Maybe Dallas should have just accepted Zeke Elliot's suspension, as the tension caused by the appeal seems to be affecting his performance. He has rarely been the dynamic back he was last year, and the Cowboys offensive output has reduced because of it. Fortunately for them, the 49ers offensive output is even lower. COWBOYS
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: Watch out, Denver! After lackluster performances at the beginning of the season, the Chargers have caught on in the past two weeks. Could that translate to a win? I'm not sure. The Chargers certain have the talent to win, and their offensive players are much more in sync, but I think they'll get a bit lackluster, believing they have solved all of their problems. Trevor Siemian is not a flashy quarterback like Peyton Manning was, but he analyzes the field well and makes few mistakes. The consistency will help the Broncos get past the revitalized Chargers, although they will need some help from their defense to do it. BRONCOS
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: The Giants finally got into the "win" column last week, but don't expect it to last. The Giants still showed confusion, and Eli Manning was still more inaccurate than usual. These are things that the Seahawks defense will feast upon. SEAHAWKS
Sunday night
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots: This could be an interesting game. The Patriots seem to have righted themselves, and are looking as dangerous as usual. The Falcons offense remains deadly. This could became a shoot-out. The difference might be the Patriots defense, who could be just "handsy" enough to make trouble for the Falcons receivers. PATRIOTS
Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Thanks to two consecutive Chiefs losses, the Eagles are the strongest team in the league. Washington tries, but frequently comes up short. The Eagles will roll. EAGLES
I made my picks on Wed but had no time to post this. I felt good about this week, because nearly all of the games seemed easy to pick. In the interim the Thursday night game was played, and my pick, the Kansas City Chiefs, lost. In fact, I figured that game would have the largest margin of victory. Of course, I also thought that Derek Carr would not be playing, but I still would have picked the Chiefs. Not exactly an auspicious beginning to the week.
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: With all of the strangeness going on this season, the Rams have emerged as a Top Five team. Quite a turnaround in just a couple of years! Their defense is tough, and should give the Cardinals offense problems. Since the Cardinals offense can sometimes give THEMSELVES problems, that does not bode well for Arizona. RAMS
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings: For the second straight week the Ravens face an NFC North team. After the loss to the Bears, I doubt they are looking forward to this one. The Vikings beat Green Bay last week, but that had more to do with the loss of Aaron Rodgers than the Vikings. Still, their offense moves well, especially the running game, and with a thin bench for the Ravens, a long drawn-out running game may wear them down. VIKINGS
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: The Bears won in overtime last week, but this game won't even get to overtime. The Panthers have a very efficient offense. They haven't been as consistent as they should be this season, but depleted Bears defense should help that offense move this week. Mitch Trubisky is playing better than Mike Glennon, but it will still take the Bears some time to have the offense move effectively. PANTHERS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are stuggling without Andrew Luck under center, and now it seems uncertain if he will be returning at all this season. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is having one of their most successful seasons ever. JAGUARS
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: The Packers offense is stalled without Aaron Rodgers, while the Saints offense flies. With the number of injuries among the Packers defense, that offense will get plenty of chances this week. SAINTS
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: This game could be close. Games between these rivals are often high-scoring affairs, with frequent lead changes. I don't think one will be high-scoring, but I do figure we'll see a close game with each team leading at least three times in the game. Who will emerge victorious? I like the Dolphins, just because they seem better at managing the clock. If they have the lead late in the fourth, they will choose plays to ensure the Jets don't have enough time to get a final score. DOLPHINS
Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Okay, Big Ben seems to have completely shaken off the residue of his career-high five interception game. The team looked strong last week. The Bengals continue to struggle on offense, and its a mystery. Most of the players are the same ones they had last year, and Dalton has been leading this offense for years. I do expect the Steelers defense to exploit every confusion and miscommunication caused by the Bengals, though. STEELERS
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers: Maybe Dallas should have just accepted Zeke Elliot's suspension, as the tension caused by the appeal seems to be affecting his performance. He has rarely been the dynamic back he was last year, and the Cowboys offensive output has reduced because of it. Fortunately for them, the 49ers offensive output is even lower. COWBOYS
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: Watch out, Denver! After lackluster performances at the beginning of the season, the Chargers have caught on in the past two weeks. Could that translate to a win? I'm not sure. The Chargers certain have the talent to win, and their offensive players are much more in sync, but I think they'll get a bit lackluster, believing they have solved all of their problems. Trevor Siemian is not a flashy quarterback like Peyton Manning was, but he analyzes the field well and makes few mistakes. The consistency will help the Broncos get past the revitalized Chargers, although they will need some help from their defense to do it. BRONCOS
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: The Giants finally got into the "win" column last week, but don't expect it to last. The Giants still showed confusion, and Eli Manning was still more inaccurate than usual. These are things that the Seahawks defense will feast upon. SEAHAWKS
Sunday night
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots: This could be an interesting game. The Patriots seem to have righted themselves, and are looking as dangerous as usual. The Falcons offense remains deadly. This could became a shoot-out. The difference might be the Patriots defense, who could be just "handsy" enough to make trouble for the Falcons receivers. PATRIOTS
Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Thanks to two consecutive Chiefs losses, the Eagles are the strongest team in the league. Washington tries, but frequently comes up short. The Eagles will roll. EAGLES
Thursday, October 19, 2017
NCAA Week 8 picks
We've had two weeks of Top 25 upsets. Will that continue? Let's see...
Thurs Oct 19
Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars: The battle of the big cats has major conference placement implications. Both teams have looked good, although recently Houston has lost some of their shine. I like the strength of Memphis' offense, but I'm going to flip on this one and pick the home team. This game could easily go the other way, and it'll be a close game regardless of the winner. HOUSTON
Fri Oct 20
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos: Not really an interesting game among the bunch, but this comes the closest to helping place division leaders. Colorado State is looking decent, and have to be favored in this match-up. COLORADO STATE
Sat Oct 21
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: With the recent spate of Top 5 upsets, Alabama and Penn State have been the only consistent power teams of the bunch. Don't expect the Vols to alter the Tide's trajectory. ALABAMA
#16 Michigan Wolverines at #2 Penn State Nittany Lions: The defenses will battle ferociously in this game. The difference will be the offensive line of Penn State, blocking for and setting up running back Saquon Barkley. It may take Penn State a quarter or so to do it, but they'll find a way to punch enough holes for Barkley to run over the Wolverines. PENN STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #4 Wisconsin Badgers: Maryland has had too many injuries to keep up the offensive pace that beat Texas in Week 1. Wisconsin's defense will certainly take advantage of that. While the Badgers offense is not built to come from behind, they won't have to do that here. WISCONSIN
#7 UCF Golden Knights at Navy Midshipmen: Navy lost their first game last week, and now head into some stiff competition. That includes tough UCF. The Knights score too quickly to give the Navy offense a chance to regroup, and that will eventually cause problems late in the game. UCF
Kansas Wildcats at #8 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU wants to represent the Big XII in the playoffs. As the only unbeaten team in the conference, they have a chance. Kansas won't jeopardize that. TCU
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #23 Texas Longhorns: Texas couldn't quite overcome Oklahoma last week in the Red River Rivalry, and now the other Oklahoma team comes to town. The Cowboys could fare even better, which will march a serious blow to Tom Herman's plans for the Longhorns. OKLAHOMA STATE
#15 USC Trojans at #10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This is perhaps the most intriguing Top 25 match-up of the week. USC has not always looked good, but they have found ways to win in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame prefers to get a lead and hold it. These two strategies will clash in South Bend. I think Notre Dame can get a big enough to hold on, but they'll have to keep scoring in the fourth to overcome any Trojans comeback. NOTRE DAME
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats: Oklahoma had a tough time beating Texas last week, but they'll have an easier time of it this week. Kansas State is showing weaknesses now that conference play has started. They won't be a contender in the Big XII. OKLAHOMA
#13 South Florida Bulls at Tulane Green Wave: South Florida will roll easily. SOUTH FLORIDA
North Carolina Tar Heels at #14 Virginia Tech Hokies: North Carolina can be tricky, but Virginia Tech should have this game in the bag by the end of the third quarter. VIRGINIA TECH
#17 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Auburn is seething from their loss to LSU last week, and they need to unleash some frustration. Enter the Razorbacks. That frustration might result in some early penalties, which might help give Arkansas an early lead. They won't be able to sustain that, though. AUBURN
Colorado Buffaloes at #19 Washington State Cougars: What a difference a year makes! Last year the Buffaloes were the surprise team in the Pac-12, advancing to the conference championship. This year that won't happen. Washington State might do that, though, and this game will help that effort. WASHINGTON STATE
Syracuse Orange at #20 Miami Hurricanes: Syracuse beat previously unbeaten (and seemingly unbeatable) Clemson last week, so Miami has to be concerned. Everything aligned perfectly for Syracuse, though, including a key Clemson injury, so I don't think it's in the stars for a second consecutive upset. MIAMI
#22 West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears: Believe it or not, the Bears are still looking for their first win of the season. I don't think they'll find it here. The Mountaineers have really show strength this year, especially on defense. I think Baylor will struggle to score more than 15 points. WEST VIRGINIA
Arizona State Sun Devils at #24 Utah Utes: The Sun Devils stink on the road this season, and Utah will smother them. UTAH
Indiana Hoosiers at #25 Michigan State Spartans: Indiana is capable of playing tough, and their offense will test the Spartans defense. The Spartans offense is waking up, though, and that may make the difference in this game. MICHIGAN STATE
Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: This game could decide if anyone can dethrone Wisconsin from the West division crown. Wisconsin has already beaten Northwestern and Nebraska. Iowa is really the only possible contender. The Hawkeyes need a win here to keep that possibility alive. The Wildcats mauled Maryland last week, so this will determine how much of that was due to Northwestern's ability and how much due to Maryland's injury losses. IOWA
Purdue Boilermakers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Knights beat Illinois last week, and this is the only other reasonable chance for a conference win for Rutgers. Purdue can play tough, and their defense showed up nicely last week. I have to give the Boilermakers the edge, although Rutgers might pull this one out. PURDUE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Wither Illinois, this seems to be another rebuilding year for the team. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Cyclones are pulling attention away from in-state rival Iowa, especially since their upset of Oklahoma. Despite a ten-point loss to Texas, Iowa State is proving to be a serious contender in the Big XII. Texas Tech has shown flashes, but they are consistently strong enough, nor hold onto the ball long enough, for me to trust they can beat the new force in the conference. IOWA STATE
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs: This should be a fun battle! Kentucky has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference, while Mississippi State has one of the stronger offenses. With a 1-2 SEC record, Mississippi State looks like the underdog, but remember those two losses were against ranked Georgia and Auburn, and their win was the start of LSU's collapse. I like the Bulldogs to win this one. MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels: Speaking of LSU, they are attempting to build on their upset of Auburn last week. A sputtering Ole Miss team should help that. LSU
Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears: Arizona has quietly put together a strong showing this season, second in the South division to only USC. A win here keeps them just a game behind, and the game against the Trojans still ahead. ARIZONA
Thurs Oct 19
Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars: The battle of the big cats has major conference placement implications. Both teams have looked good, although recently Houston has lost some of their shine. I like the strength of Memphis' offense, but I'm going to flip on this one and pick the home team. This game could easily go the other way, and it'll be a close game regardless of the winner. HOUSTON
Fri Oct 20
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos: Not really an interesting game among the bunch, but this comes the closest to helping place division leaders. Colorado State is looking decent, and have to be favored in this match-up. COLORADO STATE
Sat Oct 21
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: With the recent spate of Top 5 upsets, Alabama and Penn State have been the only consistent power teams of the bunch. Don't expect the Vols to alter the Tide's trajectory. ALABAMA
#16 Michigan Wolverines at #2 Penn State Nittany Lions: The defenses will battle ferociously in this game. The difference will be the offensive line of Penn State, blocking for and setting up running back Saquon Barkley. It may take Penn State a quarter or so to do it, but they'll find a way to punch enough holes for Barkley to run over the Wolverines. PENN STATE
Maryland Terrapins at #4 Wisconsin Badgers: Maryland has had too many injuries to keep up the offensive pace that beat Texas in Week 1. Wisconsin's defense will certainly take advantage of that. While the Badgers offense is not built to come from behind, they won't have to do that here. WISCONSIN
#7 UCF Golden Knights at Navy Midshipmen: Navy lost their first game last week, and now head into some stiff competition. That includes tough UCF. The Knights score too quickly to give the Navy offense a chance to regroup, and that will eventually cause problems late in the game. UCF
Kansas Wildcats at #8 TCU Horned Frogs: TCU wants to represent the Big XII in the playoffs. As the only unbeaten team in the conference, they have a chance. Kansas won't jeopardize that. TCU
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #23 Texas Longhorns: Texas couldn't quite overcome Oklahoma last week in the Red River Rivalry, and now the other Oklahoma team comes to town. The Cowboys could fare even better, which will march a serious blow to Tom Herman's plans for the Longhorns. OKLAHOMA STATE
#15 USC Trojans at #10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This is perhaps the most intriguing Top 25 match-up of the week. USC has not always looked good, but they have found ways to win in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame prefers to get a lead and hold it. These two strategies will clash in South Bend. I think Notre Dame can get a big enough to hold on, but they'll have to keep scoring in the fourth to overcome any Trojans comeback. NOTRE DAME
#12 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats: Oklahoma had a tough time beating Texas last week, but they'll have an easier time of it this week. Kansas State is showing weaknesses now that conference play has started. They won't be a contender in the Big XII. OKLAHOMA
#13 South Florida Bulls at Tulane Green Wave: South Florida will roll easily. SOUTH FLORIDA
North Carolina Tar Heels at #14 Virginia Tech Hokies: North Carolina can be tricky, but Virginia Tech should have this game in the bag by the end of the third quarter. VIRGINIA TECH
#17 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks: Auburn is seething from their loss to LSU last week, and they need to unleash some frustration. Enter the Razorbacks. That frustration might result in some early penalties, which might help give Arkansas an early lead. They won't be able to sustain that, though. AUBURN
Colorado Buffaloes at #19 Washington State Cougars: What a difference a year makes! Last year the Buffaloes were the surprise team in the Pac-12, advancing to the conference championship. This year that won't happen. Washington State might do that, though, and this game will help that effort. WASHINGTON STATE
Syracuse Orange at #20 Miami Hurricanes: Syracuse beat previously unbeaten (and seemingly unbeatable) Clemson last week, so Miami has to be concerned. Everything aligned perfectly for Syracuse, though, including a key Clemson injury, so I don't think it's in the stars for a second consecutive upset. MIAMI
#22 West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears: Believe it or not, the Bears are still looking for their first win of the season. I don't think they'll find it here. The Mountaineers have really show strength this year, especially on defense. I think Baylor will struggle to score more than 15 points. WEST VIRGINIA
Arizona State Sun Devils at #24 Utah Utes: The Sun Devils stink on the road this season, and Utah will smother them. UTAH
Indiana Hoosiers at #25 Michigan State Spartans: Indiana is capable of playing tough, and their offense will test the Spartans defense. The Spartans offense is waking up, though, and that may make the difference in this game. MICHIGAN STATE
Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: This game could decide if anyone can dethrone Wisconsin from the West division crown. Wisconsin has already beaten Northwestern and Nebraska. Iowa is really the only possible contender. The Hawkeyes need a win here to keep that possibility alive. The Wildcats mauled Maryland last week, so this will determine how much of that was due to Northwestern's ability and how much due to Maryland's injury losses. IOWA
Purdue Boilermakers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Knights beat Illinois last week, and this is the only other reasonable chance for a conference win for Rutgers. Purdue can play tough, and their defense showed up nicely last week. I have to give the Boilermakers the edge, although Rutgers might pull this one out. PURDUE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Wither Illinois, this seems to be another rebuilding year for the team. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders: The Cyclones are pulling attention away from in-state rival Iowa, especially since their upset of Oklahoma. Despite a ten-point loss to Texas, Iowa State is proving to be a serious contender in the Big XII. Texas Tech has shown flashes, but they are consistently strong enough, nor hold onto the ball long enough, for me to trust they can beat the new force in the conference. IOWA STATE
Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs: This should be a fun battle! Kentucky has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference, while Mississippi State has one of the stronger offenses. With a 1-2 SEC record, Mississippi State looks like the underdog, but remember those two losses were against ranked Georgia and Auburn, and their win was the start of LSU's collapse. I like the Bulldogs to win this one. MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels: Speaking of LSU, they are attempting to build on their upset of Auburn last week. A sputtering Ole Miss team should help that. LSU
Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears: Arizona has quietly put together a strong showing this season, second in the South division to only USC. A win here keeps them just a game behind, and the game against the Trojans still ahead. ARIZONA
Sunday, October 15, 2017
NCAA Week 7 results and Top 25
There were still a plethora of upsets this week, especially impacting Top 25 teams. The Big Ten conference once again has three teams in the Top Ten, and since Wisconsin doesn't play either of them, there might be two in there through the conference championship game.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1]
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) [3]
3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [5]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) [6]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [7]
6. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [2]
7. UCF Golden Knights (5-0) [11]
8. TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) [9]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) [13]
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [10]
11. Washington Huskies (6-1) [4]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [12]
13. South Florida Bulls (6-0) [14]
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [16]
15. USC Trojans (6-1) [17]
16. Michigan Wolverines (5-1) [18]
17. Auburn Tigers (5-2) [8]
18. Stanford Cardinal (5-2) [23]
19. Washington State Cougars (6-1) [15]
20. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) [21]
21. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (6-1) [25]
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-2) [NR]
23. Texas Longhorns (3-3) [19]
24. Utah Utes (4-2) [24]
25. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: San Diego State Aztecs [#20], Navy Midshipmen [#22]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (5-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Iowa State Cyclones (4-2), South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2), Boise State Broncos (4-2)
Big Ten Report
With a loss to Rutgers, Illinois has taken over as the worst team in the conference. Michigan's offense continued to sputter, as they required overtime to beat Indiana. Ohio State continues to dominate. Maryland's conference slide continued as Northwestern beat them up, and Wisconsin showed an impressive defense.
Wisconsin definitely has the inside track to win their division. With Michigan's fall, it looks like Ohio State and Penn State will battle to represent their division, although Michigan State is capable of surprising someone.
Upset Alerts
There were many here, and it began on Friday night. An excitingly close game between Clemson and Syracuse resulted in a Tigers loss, then Cal completely demolished Washington State. Saturday opened with UConn squeaking past Temple, and then Boston College overthrew Louisville. LSU showed their former brilliance in a defeat of Auburn.
Later, Tulsa thoroughly thrashed Houston, Boise State spoils San Diego State's Top 25 presence, and Arizona State knocked Washington out of the Top Ten.
Poor Performers
TROY's offense evaporated, while both HOUSTON and ILLINOIS seemed to have no defense whatsoever.
Great Performers
We had several exceptional performances this week that were above and beyond what that team had displayed. WEST VIRGINIA's offense was unstoppable, and BOISE STATE dusted off some former offensive numbers. ARIZONA STATE presented an extremely stingy defense against the powerful Washington offense. TCU, known mostly for their defense, also had a stiff defense that did not seem affected by two weather delays. MICHIGAN STATE's defense held for three quarters, then had to hold off a fourth quarter surge of Minnesota.
The Pac-12 is the home of the two best overall performances this week. Both CAL and STANFORD completely overpowered their opponents with yard-chewing offenses and unyielding defenses.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) [1]
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) [3]
3. Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) [5]
4. Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) [6]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) [7]
6. Clemson Tigers (6-1) [2]
7. UCF Golden Knights (5-0) [11]
8. TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) [9]
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1) [13]
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [10]
11. Washington Huskies (6-1) [4]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (5-1) [12]
13. South Florida Bulls (6-0) [14]
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [16]
15. USC Trojans (6-1) [17]
16. Michigan Wolverines (5-1) [18]
17. Auburn Tigers (5-2) [8]
18. Stanford Cardinal (5-2) [23]
19. Washington State Cougars (6-1) [15]
20. Miami Hurricanes (5-0) [21]
21. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (6-1) [25]
22. West Virginia Mountaineers (4-2) [NR]
23. Texas Longhorns (3-3) [19]
24. Utah Utes (4-2) [24]
25. Michigan State Spartans (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: San Diego State Aztecs [#20], Navy Midshipmen [#22]
On the Edge: Marshall Thundering Herd (5-1), Texas A&M Aggies (5-2), Iowa State Cyclones (4-2), South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-2), Boise State Broncos (4-2)
Big Ten Report
With a loss to Rutgers, Illinois has taken over as the worst team in the conference. Michigan's offense continued to sputter, as they required overtime to beat Indiana. Ohio State continues to dominate. Maryland's conference slide continued as Northwestern beat them up, and Wisconsin showed an impressive defense.
Wisconsin definitely has the inside track to win their division. With Michigan's fall, it looks like Ohio State and Penn State will battle to represent their division, although Michigan State is capable of surprising someone.
Upset Alerts
There were many here, and it began on Friday night. An excitingly close game between Clemson and Syracuse resulted in a Tigers loss, then Cal completely demolished Washington State. Saturday opened with UConn squeaking past Temple, and then Boston College overthrew Louisville. LSU showed their former brilliance in a defeat of Auburn.
Later, Tulsa thoroughly thrashed Houston, Boise State spoils San Diego State's Top 25 presence, and Arizona State knocked Washington out of the Top Ten.
Poor Performers
TROY's offense evaporated, while both HOUSTON and ILLINOIS seemed to have no defense whatsoever.
Great Performers
We had several exceptional performances this week that were above and beyond what that team had displayed. WEST VIRGINIA's offense was unstoppable, and BOISE STATE dusted off some former offensive numbers. ARIZONA STATE presented an extremely stingy defense against the powerful Washington offense. TCU, known mostly for their defense, also had a stiff defense that did not seem affected by two weather delays. MICHIGAN STATE's defense held for three quarters, then had to hold off a fourth quarter surge of Minnesota.
The Pac-12 is the home of the two best overall performances this week. Both CAL and STANFORD completely overpowered their opponents with yard-chewing offenses and unyielding defenses.
Thursday, October 12, 2017
NFL 2017 Week 6 picks
We had a bunch of visiting teams win last week. We also had a bunch of losing teams suddenly win, and many winning teams falter (right, Pittsburgh?). It's becoming a weird season. We had only one unbeaten team after 4 weeks. After 5 weeks we only have a total of 4 teams with no more than one loss. This is parity at its most primal.
Thurs Oct 12
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: This should be a shoot-out. Either team can win this game, as both offenses will scratch and claw late in the game to get that go-ahead score. I think the Eagles are little better at managing the clock, and might not give the Panthers enough time to score again. EAGLES
Sunday early games
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: Mitch Trubisky has breathed some life into the Bears offense, but alas that might not be enough against the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense moves well, and the Bears defense still leaves some effort to be desired. RAVENS
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: A battle of two "De-" rookie QBs. DeShone Kizer has been doing okay for the Browns, but he's not getting much help. Deshaun Watson moved down to "normal" levels last week, after two weeks of astounding stats, and the Texans defense sharpened last week, too. Expect to see better defense this week (which will hurt Kizer), and the Browns defense will allow Watson to boost his numbers from last week. TEXANS
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: The Saints can be deadly at home. On paper, the Lions should win this game. Unfortunately, the games are not played on paper. The Saints will bring a little more punch to this game. The question is, whether that punch will be enough. The Saints have a habit of falling just short, so I'll go with that. LIONS in a tight one
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: The Packers are an interesting team this year. They have yet to play the same offensive line two weeks, and their receivers drop way too many passes. Yet, in the fourth quarter, they find ways to pull out games. The Vikings had to pull one out late last week, but this time I think the Packers have the edge. PACKERS
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons: Although the move to Miami seems to have revitalized Jay Cutler's game, the Dolphins offense will not be able to keep pace with the Falcons. Is their defense good enough to slow them down? Not enough. FALCONS
New England Patriots at New York Jets: Games between these two teams often become heated battles, and this year adds some interesting edges. The Jets, after I predicted they might be the worst team in the AFC this season, are showing signs of life, while the perennial powerful Patriots are showing signs of rust and decay. Expect the Jets to pump it up a couple of notches and really get physical with the Pats. I don't quite think the Jets are operating at a level to defeat their divisional rival, but they will make it close and exciting. PATRIOTS
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: The 49ers don't like playing early games on the East coast. Not even the chance for 49ers QB Brian Hoyer to commiserate with fellow Michigan State alum Kurt Cousins will make this game tolerable for the struggling 49ers. REDSKINS
Sunday late games
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders: How bad are the Chargers playing? Even without Derek Carr, I think the Raiders can beat them. Of course, they'll get considerable help from the defense. RAIDERS
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars: Considering how they played in preseason, the Jags success might be the most surprising of this season. I even have to give them the edge over the Rams! Of course, if the Rams defense tightens, this game could go the other way. JAGUARS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: Good news - I fully expect Ben Roethlisberger to shake off the five interception performance from last week and play a much better game. The bad news? The Chiefs will have an even better offense working the field. CHIEFS
Tampa Bay Bucs at Arizona Cardinals: Jameis Winston and company really have the Bucs moving. Consistency is still a bit of a problem, but not as much as it's a problem for Arizona. BUCS
Sunday night
New York Giants at Denver Broncos: The winless Giants have to travel to Mile High Stadium, a difficult place to play, with a banged-up group of receivers. We're not even sure who Eli Manning will be throwing to. The Giants will have trouble moving the ball. Denver will not. Although Trevor Siemian does not have the arm of Peyton Manning, he is gaining a great read of the field. His adjustments are slow, but he's improving. For this game, he doesn't have to move too fast, as the Giants defense should give him plenty of time. BRONCOS
Monday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Both teams hope to have their starting quarterbacks return for this game. Marcus Mariota is likely, while Andrew Luck is probable. Sounds like the Colts might finally have their quarterback back. He might be a bit rusty, though, and the Titans defense has been very good at causing turnovers and rushing the quarterback. TITANS
Thurs Oct 12
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: This should be a shoot-out. Either team can win this game, as both offenses will scratch and claw late in the game to get that go-ahead score. I think the Eagles are little better at managing the clock, and might not give the Panthers enough time to score again. EAGLES
Sunday early games
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: Mitch Trubisky has breathed some life into the Bears offense, but alas that might not be enough against the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense moves well, and the Bears defense still leaves some effort to be desired. RAVENS
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans: A battle of two "De-" rookie QBs. DeShone Kizer has been doing okay for the Browns, but he's not getting much help. Deshaun Watson moved down to "normal" levels last week, after two weeks of astounding stats, and the Texans defense sharpened last week, too. Expect to see better defense this week (which will hurt Kizer), and the Browns defense will allow Watson to boost his numbers from last week. TEXANS
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: The Saints can be deadly at home. On paper, the Lions should win this game. Unfortunately, the games are not played on paper. The Saints will bring a little more punch to this game. The question is, whether that punch will be enough. The Saints have a habit of falling just short, so I'll go with that. LIONS in a tight one
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: The Packers are an interesting team this year. They have yet to play the same offensive line two weeks, and their receivers drop way too many passes. Yet, in the fourth quarter, they find ways to pull out games. The Vikings had to pull one out late last week, but this time I think the Packers have the edge. PACKERS
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons: Although the move to Miami seems to have revitalized Jay Cutler's game, the Dolphins offense will not be able to keep pace with the Falcons. Is their defense good enough to slow them down? Not enough. FALCONS
New England Patriots at New York Jets: Games between these two teams often become heated battles, and this year adds some interesting edges. The Jets, after I predicted they might be the worst team in the AFC this season, are showing signs of life, while the perennial powerful Patriots are showing signs of rust and decay. Expect the Jets to pump it up a couple of notches and really get physical with the Pats. I don't quite think the Jets are operating at a level to defeat their divisional rival, but they will make it close and exciting. PATRIOTS
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: The 49ers don't like playing early games on the East coast. Not even the chance for 49ers QB Brian Hoyer to commiserate with fellow Michigan State alum Kurt Cousins will make this game tolerable for the struggling 49ers. REDSKINS
Sunday late games
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders: How bad are the Chargers playing? Even without Derek Carr, I think the Raiders can beat them. Of course, they'll get considerable help from the defense. RAIDERS
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars: Considering how they played in preseason, the Jags success might be the most surprising of this season. I even have to give them the edge over the Rams! Of course, if the Rams defense tightens, this game could go the other way. JAGUARS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: Good news - I fully expect Ben Roethlisberger to shake off the five interception performance from last week and play a much better game. The bad news? The Chiefs will have an even better offense working the field. CHIEFS
Tampa Bay Bucs at Arizona Cardinals: Jameis Winston and company really have the Bucs moving. Consistency is still a bit of a problem, but not as much as it's a problem for Arizona. BUCS
Sunday night
New York Giants at Denver Broncos: The winless Giants have to travel to Mile High Stadium, a difficult place to play, with a banged-up group of receivers. We're not even sure who Eli Manning will be throwing to. The Giants will have trouble moving the ball. Denver will not. Although Trevor Siemian does not have the arm of Peyton Manning, he is gaining a great read of the field. His adjustments are slow, but he's improving. For this game, he doesn't have to move too fast, as the Giants defense should give him plenty of time. BRONCOS
Monday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Both teams hope to have their starting quarterbacks return for this game. Marcus Mariota is likely, while Andrew Luck is probable. Sounds like the Colts might finally have their quarterback back. He might be a bit rusty, though, and the Titans defense has been very good at causing turnovers and rushing the quarterback. TITANS
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
NCAA Week 7 picks
We'll see how this week stacks up against last week. Oklahoma has another challenge, and we have some chances for more upsets. Wednesday and Thursday feature Sun Belt teams, so let's jet ahead to...
Friday Oct 13
I think the home teams for both of these matches are hoping for some Friday the 13th thrillers, although they may not be able to count on that.
#2 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange: I would take Freddy Krueger to throw off the Tigers defense (and I'm not even sure THAT would work!). Syracuse has much of a chance as Freddy getting a manicure. CLEMSON
#15 Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears: Cal might need some movie magic to get past the Cougars, one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in the conference (and both from Washington state). They may keep it close in the first half, but watch the Cougars run away in the second. WASHINGTON STATE
Saturday Oct 14
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Brett Bielema left Wisconsin for this? Maybe it's not too late to go back. ALABAMA
#4 Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils: Things haven't been too sunny for the Sun Devils, and don't expect the forecast to improve in this game. Washington's offense can overpower any defense, and Arizona State doesn't have a great one. WASHINGTON
Missouri Tigers at #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Let's hope Missouri's newfound offense keeps at it, as their defense won't be able to stop the surging Bulldogs. The Tigers can't win, but maybe their offense can keep the gap respectable. GEORGIA
Purdue Boilermakers at #6 Wisconsin Badgers: Purdue will have to do even better than last week to get a second consecutive win, as the Badgers offense showed up last week. Their defense was already a force, especially at home. WISCONSIN
#7 Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers got skunked last week, and now they host their second consecutive Top 10 opponent. Unfortunately for them, the Buckeyes are even stronger both offensively and defensively. While the Buckeyes may not win by as much as they did last week, I fully expect to see the second string in there before the third quarter is half over (the second string started the second half against Maryland, and the third string was on the field by the fourth quarter). OHIO STATE
#8 Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers: Usually the battle of the Tigers is close, and a defensive battle, but the woes of LSU this season makes me think this one will be pretty one-sided. It is a rivalry game, though, so LSU might get it up for this game. That would only make it close, though. AUBURN
#9 TCU Horned Frogs at Kanas State Wildcats: TCU is the lone remaining unbeaten in the Big XII, and they start an what should be an easy stretch this week. However, nothing would make Kansas State happier than the upset. While TCU should win this one, they have played too many close matches for me not to consider an upset. TCU
East Carolina Pirates at #11 UCF Golden Knights: Watch the Knights charge the Pirates, whose normally stout defense is a bit anemic this year. UCF
#12 Oklahoma Sooners v #19 Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl: Welcome to the 2017 Red River Rivalry! We have the Oklahoma Sooners coming off an upset at home facing the resurgent Texas Longhorns. Even in the lean years of Texas football, they could get it up to win the Red River Rivalry. Now that Iowa State has exposed some weaknesses on the Sooners, could they go 0-2 in consecutive weeks? That's rare for Oklahoma, so I will pick them to win, but watch out for the Longhorns here. This isn't just for conference position, this is for pride! OKLAHOMA
Baylor Bears at #13 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys have an easy time, pulverizing the winless Baylor Bears. OKLAHOMA STATE
Cincinnati Bearcats at #14 South Florida Bulls: South Florida had an extra week to prepare for this game, but I don't think they needed it. Cincy has been struggling as much as their NFL team has, while the Bulls have dominated every opponent they have faced. SOUTH FLORIDA
#24 Utah Utes at #17 USC Trojans: Given the Utes, I might think to watch for an upset. However, this spunky Trojans team finds ways to win, even if they have to come from behind. This one will be close, but will be a win for the home team. USC
#18 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers: Believe it or not, here's a potential upset. The Hoosiers have a powerful offense. Their defense isn't so good, but you don't need much defense to confuse the Wolverines offense this season. This game will come down to how well the Wolverines defense can defend Indiana. I think the Hoosiers will be ahead at halftime. Just how good will the halftime adjustments be? MICHIGAN in a two-point squeaker
Boise State Broncos at #20 San Diego State Aztecs: Boise State is usually a threat, but they seem to be a bit slower this season than usual. The Aztecs are strong, and their slow and steady offense keeps the ball in their hands for a long time, allowing them to control the pace of the game. That should help slow the normally fast-paced Broncos offense. SAN DIEGO STATE
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #21 Miami Hurricanes: Georgia Tech hasn't played for a couple of weeks, so they're itching to tear it up against the Hurricanes. If Miami starts as slow as they did last week, they'll have a tough deficit to overcome, especially against a strong Tech defense. I have to like Tech's chances for an upset here. GEORGIA TECH
#22 Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers: Another upset possibility. Memphis showed their early season strength last week, but they also flopped two games ago. Navy has been consistent; not dominant, but steady. I have to favor them, but I know Memphis will be pushing for the win. NAVY
Oregon Ducks at #23 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal have bounced back from two consecutive losses early in the season. Their defeat of Utah last week showed they had the spunk and talent to beat a decent team. The Ducks offense evaporated last week. If it doesn't reconstitute, this game will be an easy win for the Cardinal. STANFORD
Big Ten
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini: Now here's a team the Illini should be able to beat. In a season when the Big Ten has shown up big most of the time, Rutgers is the lone team to be dependently behind. Illinois' defense is bad, but Rutgers offense isn't too good. This might be the chance for Illinois to boost their young quarterback's confidence, and prepare for the tougher battles to come. It's also Homecoming Weekend for the Illini, and as the site of the first Homecoming, they always get it up a bit more for Homecoming. ILLINOIS
Northwestern Wildcats at Maryland Terrapins: How do the Terrapins redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss to the second and third string squads of Ohio State? By beating up on the Wildcats, of course. MARYLAND
Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota wants to come back from their tough loss to Purdue, and they especially want to prevent going 0-3 in conference play. I don't think they'll get either one. While the Spartans offense didn't really shine against Michigan last week, their defense was impressive. That defense will give Minnesota problems. MICHIGAN STATE
Other games of Interest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers: The two Oklahoma teams and unbeaten TCU have received most of the attention in the Big XII, with some coverage to Texas. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has quietly accumulated a 4-1 record and a shot at the conference title. Getting past West Virginia, who played Oklahoma State to within a touchdown, will be imperative. TEXAS TECH
Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Houston continues to chase Navy for the American West division title. They'll keep pace here. HOUSTON
Friday Oct 13
I think the home teams for both of these matches are hoping for some Friday the 13th thrillers, although they may not be able to count on that.
#2 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange: I would take Freddy Krueger to throw off the Tigers defense (and I'm not even sure THAT would work!). Syracuse has much of a chance as Freddy getting a manicure. CLEMSON
#15 Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears: Cal might need some movie magic to get past the Cougars, one of only two remaining unbeaten teams in the conference (and both from Washington state). They may keep it close in the first half, but watch the Cougars run away in the second. WASHINGTON STATE
Saturday Oct 14
Arkansas Razorbacks at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: Brett Bielema left Wisconsin for this? Maybe it's not too late to go back. ALABAMA
#4 Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils: Things haven't been too sunny for the Sun Devils, and don't expect the forecast to improve in this game. Washington's offense can overpower any defense, and Arizona State doesn't have a great one. WASHINGTON
Missouri Tigers at #5 Georgia Bulldogs: Let's hope Missouri's newfound offense keeps at it, as their defense won't be able to stop the surging Bulldogs. The Tigers can't win, but maybe their offense can keep the gap respectable. GEORGIA
Purdue Boilermakers at #6 Wisconsin Badgers: Purdue will have to do even better than last week to get a second consecutive win, as the Badgers offense showed up last week. Their defense was already a force, especially at home. WISCONSIN
#7 Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers got skunked last week, and now they host their second consecutive Top 10 opponent. Unfortunately for them, the Buckeyes are even stronger both offensively and defensively. While the Buckeyes may not win by as much as they did last week, I fully expect to see the second string in there before the third quarter is half over (the second string started the second half against Maryland, and the third string was on the field by the fourth quarter). OHIO STATE
#8 Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers: Usually the battle of the Tigers is close, and a defensive battle, but the woes of LSU this season makes me think this one will be pretty one-sided. It is a rivalry game, though, so LSU might get it up for this game. That would only make it close, though. AUBURN
#9 TCU Horned Frogs at Kanas State Wildcats: TCU is the lone remaining unbeaten in the Big XII, and they start an what should be an easy stretch this week. However, nothing would make Kansas State happier than the upset. While TCU should win this one, they have played too many close matches for me not to consider an upset. TCU
East Carolina Pirates at #11 UCF Golden Knights: Watch the Knights charge the Pirates, whose normally stout defense is a bit anemic this year. UCF
#12 Oklahoma Sooners v #19 Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl: Welcome to the 2017 Red River Rivalry! We have the Oklahoma Sooners coming off an upset at home facing the resurgent Texas Longhorns. Even in the lean years of Texas football, they could get it up to win the Red River Rivalry. Now that Iowa State has exposed some weaknesses on the Sooners, could they go 0-2 in consecutive weeks? That's rare for Oklahoma, so I will pick them to win, but watch out for the Longhorns here. This isn't just for conference position, this is for pride! OKLAHOMA
Baylor Bears at #13 Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys have an easy time, pulverizing the winless Baylor Bears. OKLAHOMA STATE
Cincinnati Bearcats at #14 South Florida Bulls: South Florida had an extra week to prepare for this game, but I don't think they needed it. Cincy has been struggling as much as their NFL team has, while the Bulls have dominated every opponent they have faced. SOUTH FLORIDA
#24 Utah Utes at #17 USC Trojans: Given the Utes, I might think to watch for an upset. However, this spunky Trojans team finds ways to win, even if they have to come from behind. This one will be close, but will be a win for the home team. USC
#18 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers: Believe it or not, here's a potential upset. The Hoosiers have a powerful offense. Their defense isn't so good, but you don't need much defense to confuse the Wolverines offense this season. This game will come down to how well the Wolverines defense can defend Indiana. I think the Hoosiers will be ahead at halftime. Just how good will the halftime adjustments be? MICHIGAN in a two-point squeaker
Boise State Broncos at #20 San Diego State Aztecs: Boise State is usually a threat, but they seem to be a bit slower this season than usual. The Aztecs are strong, and their slow and steady offense keeps the ball in their hands for a long time, allowing them to control the pace of the game. That should help slow the normally fast-paced Broncos offense. SAN DIEGO STATE
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #21 Miami Hurricanes: Georgia Tech hasn't played for a couple of weeks, so they're itching to tear it up against the Hurricanes. If Miami starts as slow as they did last week, they'll have a tough deficit to overcome, especially against a strong Tech defense. I have to like Tech's chances for an upset here. GEORGIA TECH
#22 Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers: Another upset possibility. Memphis showed their early season strength last week, but they also flopped two games ago. Navy has been consistent; not dominant, but steady. I have to favor them, but I know Memphis will be pushing for the win. NAVY
Oregon Ducks at #23 Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal have bounced back from two consecutive losses early in the season. Their defeat of Utah last week showed they had the spunk and talent to beat a decent team. The Ducks offense evaporated last week. If it doesn't reconstitute, this game will be an easy win for the Cardinal. STANFORD
Big Ten
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Illinois Fighting Illini: Now here's a team the Illini should be able to beat. In a season when the Big Ten has shown up big most of the time, Rutgers is the lone team to be dependently behind. Illinois' defense is bad, but Rutgers offense isn't too good. This might be the chance for Illinois to boost their young quarterback's confidence, and prepare for the tougher battles to come. It's also Homecoming Weekend for the Illini, and as the site of the first Homecoming, they always get it up a bit more for Homecoming. ILLINOIS
Northwestern Wildcats at Maryland Terrapins: How do the Terrapins redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss to the second and third string squads of Ohio State? By beating up on the Wildcats, of course. MARYLAND
Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers: Minnesota wants to come back from their tough loss to Purdue, and they especially want to prevent going 0-3 in conference play. I don't think they'll get either one. While the Spartans offense didn't really shine against Michigan last week, their defense was impressive. That defense will give Minnesota problems. MICHIGAN STATE
Other games of Interest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers: The two Oklahoma teams and unbeaten TCU have received most of the attention in the Big XII, with some coverage to Texas. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has quietly accumulated a 4-1 record and a shot at the conference title. Getting past West Virginia, who played Oklahoma State to within a touchdown, will be imperative. TEXAS TECH
Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Houston continues to chase Navy for the American West division title. They'll keep pace here. HOUSTON
NCAA Week 6 results and Top 25
We had a few more upsets this week, and that caused some shifts in the Top 25, even near the top.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [2]
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) [4]
4. Washington Huskies (6-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (6-0) [8]
6. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [6]
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [10]
8. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [15]
9. TCU Horned Frogs (5-0) [9]
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [12]
11. UCF Golden Knights (4-0) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) [3]
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [13]
14. South Florida Bulls (5-0) [14]
15. Washington State Cougars (6-0) [16]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [17]
17. USC Trojans (5-1) [18]
18. Michigan Wolverines (4-1) [7]
19. Texas Longhorns (3-2) [19]
20. San Diego State Aztecs (6-0) [25]
21. Miami Hurricanes (4-0) [21]
22. Navy Midshipmen (5-0) [22]
23. Stanford Cardinal (4-2) [NR]
24. Utah Utes (4-1) [20]
25. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: Louisville Cardinals [#23], Oregon Ducks [#24]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (4-1), Michigan State Spartans (4-1), West Virgina Mountaineers (3-2), Kansas State Wildcats (3-2), Texas A&M Aggies (4-2), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1)
Big Ten Report
For the most part, the games went as expected. Illinois' defense made Iowa look good, so hopes for the Illini are fading fast. Purdue found themselves and upset Minnesota, injuring their hopes at a division title. Wisconsin's offense finally showed up, while Michigan's remains hidden. More about Michigan in later items.
Upset Alert
Thursday started us off, as the NC State Wolf Pack devoured Louisville. The ACC wasn't finished with upsets, as Virginia knocked off Duke on Saturday. Temple destroyed East Carolina to proclaim that they were competitors in the conference, and Michigan State caused five turnovers to overwhelm Michigan in a decisively defensive battle.
The biggest upset of the weekend, though, occurred in Norman. The Oklahoma Sooners, who had seemed to be an unbeatable powerhouse in the Big XII, fell to the Iowa State Cyclones. While I thought the margin was too large (the Sooners were 31.5 point favorites), I was still shocked at the result. This leaves TCU as the lone unbeaten, and none of the top three teams in the conference have played each other yet, so anyone emerging with just one loss will be a miracle. Worse for Oklahoma -- this week is the Red River Rivalry, and they are on the road.
Poor Performers
I don't think it gets any worse than MICHIGAN's offensive offense. They looked confused all game, and John O'Korn made some unusual decisions. He also tends to start running if his first target is covered, rather than taking some time to check the field for other possible targets. If he doesn't improve before Speight gets back, things look bleak for the Wolverines.
One game featured two poor offenses. Until the second half of the fourth quarter, neither MIAMI nor FLORIDA STATE had done much. There had only been a total of one touchdown (plus two field goals) until the two teams finally found gusto, scoring four touchdowns (plus a field goal) in less than ten minutes remaining.
Great Performers
MEMPHIS redeemed themselves this week, posting 70 points against UConn. Alright, UConn is not a defensive giant (not even a defensive midget), but the Tigers had more yards and more scoring than they have EVER scored, including against FCS teams, so that makes it a great record-setting achievement.
MISSOURI finally found some gas this week. It wasn't enough to beat Kentucky, but it certainly breathed some life into the team that was languishing as the SEC doormat. WASHINGTON STATE showed great defense, holding the fast-paced Oregon Ducks to ten points and less than 200 total yards.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (6-0) [2]
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) [4]
4. Washington Huskies (6-0) [5]
5. Georgia Bulldogs (6-0) [8]
6. Wisconsin Badgers (5-0) [6]
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-1) [10]
8. Auburn Tigers (5-1) [15]
9. TCU Horned Frogs (5-0) [9]
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) [12]
11. UCF Golden Knights (4-0) [11]
12. Oklahoma Sooners (4-1) [3]
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [13]
14. South Florida Bulls (5-0) [14]
15. Washington State Cougars (6-0) [16]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1) [17]
17. USC Trojans (5-1) [18]
18. Michigan Wolverines (4-1) [7]
19. Texas Longhorns (3-2) [19]
20. San Diego State Aztecs (6-0) [25]
21. Miami Hurricanes (4-0) [21]
22. Navy Midshipmen (5-0) [22]
23. Stanford Cardinal (4-2) [NR]
24. Utah Utes (4-1) [20]
25. North Carolina State Wolf Pack (5-1) [NR]
Dropped off: Louisville Cardinals [#23], Oregon Ducks [#24]
On the Edge: Houston Cougars (4-1), Michigan State Spartans (4-1), West Virgina Mountaineers (3-2), Kansas State Wildcats (3-2), Texas A&M Aggies (4-2), Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1)
Big Ten Report
For the most part, the games went as expected. Illinois' defense made Iowa look good, so hopes for the Illini are fading fast. Purdue found themselves and upset Minnesota, injuring their hopes at a division title. Wisconsin's offense finally showed up, while Michigan's remains hidden. More about Michigan in later items.
Upset Alert
Thursday started us off, as the NC State Wolf Pack devoured Louisville. The ACC wasn't finished with upsets, as Virginia knocked off Duke on Saturday. Temple destroyed East Carolina to proclaim that they were competitors in the conference, and Michigan State caused five turnovers to overwhelm Michigan in a decisively defensive battle.
The biggest upset of the weekend, though, occurred in Norman. The Oklahoma Sooners, who had seemed to be an unbeatable powerhouse in the Big XII, fell to the Iowa State Cyclones. While I thought the margin was too large (the Sooners were 31.5 point favorites), I was still shocked at the result. This leaves TCU as the lone unbeaten, and none of the top three teams in the conference have played each other yet, so anyone emerging with just one loss will be a miracle. Worse for Oklahoma -- this week is the Red River Rivalry, and they are on the road.
Poor Performers
I don't think it gets any worse than MICHIGAN's offensive offense. They looked confused all game, and John O'Korn made some unusual decisions. He also tends to start running if his first target is covered, rather than taking some time to check the field for other possible targets. If he doesn't improve before Speight gets back, things look bleak for the Wolverines.
One game featured two poor offenses. Until the second half of the fourth quarter, neither MIAMI nor FLORIDA STATE had done much. There had only been a total of one touchdown (plus two field goals) until the two teams finally found gusto, scoring four touchdowns (plus a field goal) in less than ten minutes remaining.
Great Performers
MEMPHIS redeemed themselves this week, posting 70 points against UConn. Alright, UConn is not a defensive giant (not even a defensive midget), but the Tigers had more yards and more scoring than they have EVER scored, including against FCS teams, so that makes it a great record-setting achievement.
MISSOURI finally found some gas this week. It wasn't enough to beat Kentucky, but it certainly breathed some life into the team that was languishing as the SEC doormat. WASHINGTON STATE showed great defense, holding the fast-paced Oregon Ducks to ten points and less than 200 total yards.
Thursday, October 5, 2017
NFL 2017 Week 5 picks
Thurs Oct 5
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Patriots defense is really struggling this season. They aren't coordinated, and they have difficulty reading opposing offensive formations. It may take some time to fix these problems, and in the meantime strong offenses will be able to score against the Pats. Will the Bucs score enough to beat them? I think so. BUCS
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles offense is doing well this season. They have the talent to do better, and I think we'll see that. The Cards have talent, but they have not been utilizing it well enough. If that continues, they won't win this game. EAGLES
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are a good team who cannot seem to get it together. If and when they do, they will be tough. Until then, opponents can pad their winning percentages. Buffalo's quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been surprising me, playing above his typical performance. His offense would give the Bengals problem even if they were playing well; as they are playing now, Buffalo should not have much difficulty. BILLS
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions: Both of these teams have strong offenses. This game could light up the scoreboard. The Lions have a slightly better defense, so I give the edge to them. LIONS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Jags have been playing extremely well, but now they face a powerful opponent. The Steelers have it all together this season, and they are competing with Kansas City as favorites to win the AFC. STEELERS
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants: One of these teams will achieve their first victory of the season. Both teams are playing below themselves. For the Chargers, their players are dropping balls and missing tackles. For the Giants, they are committing too many penalties. It seems to me that the Giants' problem will be easier to fix this week, so they could win. GIANTS
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are also winless. While I picked the Jets to be the worst team in the AFC prior to the season, they are not struggling quite as badly as I thought. Given the Browns' problems, the Jets should win this game. JETS
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts: Another game featuring two struggling teams (how many people will actually be watching the early games, anyway?), the Colts seem completely listless without Andrew Luck. They are hoping he'll be back next week, but it might be too late by then. Brian Hoyer is not doing well, but he seems to be doing better than Jacoby Brissett, the Colts' relief QB. 49ERS
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: The sunny confines of Miami seems to have improved Jay Cutler's numbers, but the Titans are playing exceptionally well. The Dolphins might pull off an upset, but the Titans are consistently playing better. TITANS
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr's injury makes the Raiders suspect, but the Ravens offense is sputtering, too. This will essentially become a defensive battle. The Ravens have had the historically better defense, but the Raiders have shored up that squad nicely this season. RAIDERS
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: This one will likely become a real scrapper. Whenever these two teams get together it comes a battle, and this time will be no exception. Neither team is quite playing up to potential, but the Pack have really improved since their Week 1 loss. PACKERS
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: Despite a story in SPORTS ILLUSTRATED, where Rams fans are less than impressed by the Rams, their 3-1 record impresses me. Jared Goff and company have the offense moving, and the defense remains as tough as it has been in recent years. Seattle has not been impressive. RAMS
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: I don't think anyone would have thought that the Chiefs would be the final unbeaten team in the league. That record should stand for at least another week. The Texans don't quite have it together. DeShaun Watson put on a show last week, but the Chiefs will now be expecting him. The normally stiff Texans defense hasn't really shown up this season, so they won't be able to slow one of the most prolific offenses in the league. CHIEFS
Monday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Mike Glennon has proven not to be much of an improvement over Jay Cutler. There is talk that the Bears will bring in Mitch Trubisky. I hope so, although it may not make a difference. The Bears just don't seem to play well on Monday night, and I think that will continue this week. VIKINGS
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Patriots defense is really struggling this season. They aren't coordinated, and they have difficulty reading opposing offensive formations. It may take some time to fix these problems, and in the meantime strong offenses will be able to score against the Pats. Will the Bucs score enough to beat them? I think so. BUCS
Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles offense is doing well this season. They have the talent to do better, and I think we'll see that. The Cards have talent, but they have not been utilizing it well enough. If that continues, they won't win this game. EAGLES
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are a good team who cannot seem to get it together. If and when they do, they will be tough. Until then, opponents can pad their winning percentages. Buffalo's quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been surprising me, playing above his typical performance. His offense would give the Bengals problem even if they were playing well; as they are playing now, Buffalo should not have much difficulty. BILLS
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions: Both of these teams have strong offenses. This game could light up the scoreboard. The Lions have a slightly better defense, so I give the edge to them. LIONS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Jags have been playing extremely well, but now they face a powerful opponent. The Steelers have it all together this season, and they are competing with Kansas City as favorites to win the AFC. STEELERS
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants: One of these teams will achieve their first victory of the season. Both teams are playing below themselves. For the Chargers, their players are dropping balls and missing tackles. For the Giants, they are committing too many penalties. It seems to me that the Giants' problem will be easier to fix this week, so they could win. GIANTS
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are also winless. While I picked the Jets to be the worst team in the AFC prior to the season, they are not struggling quite as badly as I thought. Given the Browns' problems, the Jets should win this game. JETS
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts: Another game featuring two struggling teams (how many people will actually be watching the early games, anyway?), the Colts seem completely listless without Andrew Luck. They are hoping he'll be back next week, but it might be too late by then. Brian Hoyer is not doing well, but he seems to be doing better than Jacoby Brissett, the Colts' relief QB. 49ERS
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: The sunny confines of Miami seems to have improved Jay Cutler's numbers, but the Titans are playing exceptionally well. The Dolphins might pull off an upset, but the Titans are consistently playing better. TITANS
Sunday late games
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr's injury makes the Raiders suspect, but the Ravens offense is sputtering, too. This will essentially become a defensive battle. The Ravens have had the historically better defense, but the Raiders have shored up that squad nicely this season. RAIDERS
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: This one will likely become a real scrapper. Whenever these two teams get together it comes a battle, and this time will be no exception. Neither team is quite playing up to potential, but the Pack have really improved since their Week 1 loss. PACKERS
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: Despite a story in SPORTS ILLUSTRATED, where Rams fans are less than impressed by the Rams, their 3-1 record impresses me. Jared Goff and company have the offense moving, and the defense remains as tough as it has been in recent years. Seattle has not been impressive. RAMS
Sunday night
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: I don't think anyone would have thought that the Chiefs would be the final unbeaten team in the league. That record should stand for at least another week. The Texans don't quite have it together. DeShaun Watson put on a show last week, but the Chiefs will now be expecting him. The normally stiff Texans defense hasn't really shown up this season, so they won't be able to slow one of the most prolific offenses in the league. CHIEFS
Monday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Mike Glennon has proven not to be much of an improvement over Jay Cutler. There is talk that the Bears will bring in Mitch Trubisky. I hope so, although it may not make a difference. The Bears just don't seem to play well on Monday night, and I think that will continue this week. VIKINGS
Monday, October 2, 2017
NCAA Week 6 picks
Almost no games where two Top 25 teams face off against each other, but that doesn't eliminate the possibility of some upsets.
Thurs Oct 5
#23 Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolf Pack: Here's an upset possibility. The Cardinals are a strong team, but NC State has been proving to be a good team, too. The Cardinals have a better offense, but the Wolf Pack has the better defense, so we have the stronger squads facing each other. I normally like the defense in those situations, but Louisville can be tricky, and they may come up with some plays to surprise NC State. LOUISVILLE
Fri Oct 6
Memphis Tigers at UConn Huskies: This should be a pretty easy victory for Memphis. MEMPHIS
Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars: Neither team has been as strong as usual, but BYU has fallen off considerably. BOISE STATE
Sat Oct 7
#12 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies: A&M has been pretty impressive, but Alabama has been a juggernaut. Johnny Manziel engineered an upset of Alabama, but A&M doesn't have anyone of that caliber on their squad right now. ALABAMA
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #2 Clemson Tigers: Wake has a decent team, but they will be crushed by the extremely stiff defense of the Tigers. CLEMSON
Iowa State Cyclones at #3 Oklahoma Sooners: Iowa State can be tough, but Oklahoma is just overpowering opponents. OKLAHOMA
#4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern can surprise, but Penn State has been the most stable Big Ten team across the entire season. Somehow I think this team is too solid to be surprised. PENN STATE
California Golden Bears at #5 Washington Huskies: I think the Huskies are living on borrowed time, and someone will defeat them, but it won't be the Bears. Cal has some decent players, but they make too many mistakes to count on them to overcome the massive talent of the Huskies. WASHINGTON
#6 Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Last week was a wake-up to both teams. Wisconsin say that they cannot rely on their running game to wear down opponents, and they need to attack more. Nebraska found their missing offense. Who will expand on the insights from last week? I give the edge to Wisconsin, because I'm not sure Nebraska has truly solved all of their problems or the young Illini team make it seem that way. WISCONSIN
Michigan State Spartans at #7 Michigan Wolverines: Here's the greatest likelihood for an upset in the Big Ten! Michigan's offense is still sputtering, and now they have switched quarterbacks in the wake of Speight's injury. Notre Dame proved that Michigan State's defense is not as tough as it has been in recent years, but it should still be good enough to frustrate the Wolverines suffering offense. The key to this game will be if Michigan can continue to force turnovers on defense. Given the looseness of the Spartans offense as we've seen it so far, I think so. However, if the Spartans sharpen their game, they could beat their in-state rivals. MICHIGAN
#8 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores: The Commodores had a flash of glory earlier in the season, but conference play is proving too much for them. GEORGIA
West Virginia Mountaineers at #9 TCU Horned Frogs: This might be the first real test of TCU so far this season. West Virginia is a good team, and their defense is tough. TCU's offense has had it fairly easy until now. Will they pass this tough test posed by the Mountaineers? I think so, but this game could go the other way. TCU
Maryland Terrapins at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes: Maryland found themselves again last week and beat Minnesota. Are they ready to topple Ohio State? The Buckeyes seem to have solved the problems they had against Oklahoma. Their defense is reading opponents better, they are tackling better, and JT Barrett has found his mojo. All things that spell trouble for the Terps. OHIO STATE
#11 UCF Golden Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats won't be a major problem for the Knights. They probably won't even be a minor problem. UCF
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels: This should be a nice warm-up for the Irish, who have USC next week. NOTRE DAME
#16 Washington State Cougars at #24 Oregon Ducks: Our only contest between ranked teams this week! The Ducks can be a terror at home, although they haven't been quite as dominating this year. Washington State has found ways to win, but they haven't always been pretty. What's the outcome? Since the Ducks seem to be down a bit this year, I'll credit the Cougars for one more squeaker, but watch out for the home team to upset. WASHINGTON STATE
#17 Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles: The normally stout Eagles defense has flown, and the offense has its own problems. The Hokies want to wash out the stink of their embarrassing defeat to Clemson last week. This seems like a good way to do that. VIRGINIA TECH
Oregon State Beavers at #18 USC Trojans: The Trojans got exposed last week. The Beavers have a history of using such information against their opponents. Just how much did the Beavers learn, and how they can implement it, remains a mystery. USC should prevail, but the Beavers may not make it easy. USC
Kansas State Wildcats at #19 Texas Longhorns: The key to this game is which Longhorns team will show up? The one that challenged USC or the one that laid an egg against Maryland? If its the former, K-State hasn't faced tough enough opponents to prepare for that. If its the latter, the Wildcats may get the upset. Texas seems to be improving, so I'll anticipate something approaching the former. TEXAS
Stanford Cardinal at #20 Utah Utes: Stanford needs to right themselves, and knocking off the leader in the Pac-12 North might be the best way to do that. I'm not sure they can, but I certainly think they'll give it their best shot, which should make this game interesting. UTAH in a tight one
#21 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles prevented an 0-3 start last week, but now they get their bitter rival. In rivalry games you can usually throw records out the window, but that 0-2 start just points to too many problems on the Seminoles team. MIAMI
Air Force Falcons at #22 Navy Midshipmen: In the first battle of military academies, I think Navy has the edge. Air Force has been a bit grounded this season, while the ground game of Navy keeps chewing up yardage. NAVY
#25 San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV is not bad this year, but I don't think they have the power to beat the conference leading Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes: Last week proved that Lovey Smith still has a ways to go with his young team. IOWA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers: Minnesota is mad that they lost the game in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter last week. They'll take their frustrations out on the Boilermakers. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this will be an exciting game to watch (at least for those who have the exclusive ACC Network package). In a game this close, I'll give the edge to the home team. SYRACUSE
LSU Tigers at Florida Gators: A battle of two underperforming SEC teams, this could come down to which team shows their potential. Florida's offense has been shaky under their new quarterback, but the more experience he gets, the better he should play. For that reason, I'll give the slight edge to FLORIDA
Thurs Oct 5
#23 Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolf Pack: Here's an upset possibility. The Cardinals are a strong team, but NC State has been proving to be a good team, too. The Cardinals have a better offense, but the Wolf Pack has the better defense, so we have the stronger squads facing each other. I normally like the defense in those situations, but Louisville can be tricky, and they may come up with some plays to surprise NC State. LOUISVILLE
Fri Oct 6
Memphis Tigers at UConn Huskies: This should be a pretty easy victory for Memphis. MEMPHIS
Boise State Broncos at BYU Cougars: Neither team has been as strong as usual, but BYU has fallen off considerably. BOISE STATE
Sat Oct 7
#12 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies: A&M has been pretty impressive, but Alabama has been a juggernaut. Johnny Manziel engineered an upset of Alabama, but A&M doesn't have anyone of that caliber on their squad right now. ALABAMA
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #2 Clemson Tigers: Wake has a decent team, but they will be crushed by the extremely stiff defense of the Tigers. CLEMSON
Iowa State Cyclones at #3 Oklahoma Sooners: Iowa State can be tough, but Oklahoma is just overpowering opponents. OKLAHOMA
#4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern can surprise, but Penn State has been the most stable Big Ten team across the entire season. Somehow I think this team is too solid to be surprised. PENN STATE
California Golden Bears at #5 Washington Huskies: I think the Huskies are living on borrowed time, and someone will defeat them, but it won't be the Bears. Cal has some decent players, but they make too many mistakes to count on them to overcome the massive talent of the Huskies. WASHINGTON
#6 Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers: Last week was a wake-up to both teams. Wisconsin say that they cannot rely on their running game to wear down opponents, and they need to attack more. Nebraska found their missing offense. Who will expand on the insights from last week? I give the edge to Wisconsin, because I'm not sure Nebraska has truly solved all of their problems or the young Illini team make it seem that way. WISCONSIN
Michigan State Spartans at #7 Michigan Wolverines: Here's the greatest likelihood for an upset in the Big Ten! Michigan's offense is still sputtering, and now they have switched quarterbacks in the wake of Speight's injury. Notre Dame proved that Michigan State's defense is not as tough as it has been in recent years, but it should still be good enough to frustrate the Wolverines suffering offense. The key to this game will be if Michigan can continue to force turnovers on defense. Given the looseness of the Spartans offense as we've seen it so far, I think so. However, if the Spartans sharpen their game, they could beat their in-state rivals. MICHIGAN
#8 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores: The Commodores had a flash of glory earlier in the season, but conference play is proving too much for them. GEORGIA
West Virginia Mountaineers at #9 TCU Horned Frogs: This might be the first real test of TCU so far this season. West Virginia is a good team, and their defense is tough. TCU's offense has had it fairly easy until now. Will they pass this tough test posed by the Mountaineers? I think so, but this game could go the other way. TCU
Maryland Terrapins at #10 Ohio State Buckeyes: Maryland found themselves again last week and beat Minnesota. Are they ready to topple Ohio State? The Buckeyes seem to have solved the problems they had against Oklahoma. Their defense is reading opponents better, they are tackling better, and JT Barrett has found his mojo. All things that spell trouble for the Terps. OHIO STATE
#11 UCF Golden Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats: The Bearcats won't be a major problem for the Knights. They probably won't even be a minor problem. UCF
#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels: This should be a nice warm-up for the Irish, who have USC next week. NOTRE DAME
#16 Washington State Cougars at #24 Oregon Ducks: Our only contest between ranked teams this week! The Ducks can be a terror at home, although they haven't been quite as dominating this year. Washington State has found ways to win, but they haven't always been pretty. What's the outcome? Since the Ducks seem to be down a bit this year, I'll credit the Cougars for one more squeaker, but watch out for the home team to upset. WASHINGTON STATE
#17 Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College Eagles: The normally stout Eagles defense has flown, and the offense has its own problems. The Hokies want to wash out the stink of their embarrassing defeat to Clemson last week. This seems like a good way to do that. VIRGINIA TECH
Oregon State Beavers at #18 USC Trojans: The Trojans got exposed last week. The Beavers have a history of using such information against their opponents. Just how much did the Beavers learn, and how they can implement it, remains a mystery. USC should prevail, but the Beavers may not make it easy. USC
Kansas State Wildcats at #19 Texas Longhorns: The key to this game is which Longhorns team will show up? The one that challenged USC or the one that laid an egg against Maryland? If its the former, K-State hasn't faced tough enough opponents to prepare for that. If its the latter, the Wildcats may get the upset. Texas seems to be improving, so I'll anticipate something approaching the former. TEXAS
Stanford Cardinal at #20 Utah Utes: Stanford needs to right themselves, and knocking off the leader in the Pac-12 North might be the best way to do that. I'm not sure they can, but I certainly think they'll give it their best shot, which should make this game interesting. UTAH in a tight one
#21 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles prevented an 0-3 start last week, but now they get their bitter rival. In rivalry games you can usually throw records out the window, but that 0-2 start just points to too many problems on the Seminoles team. MIAMI
Air Force Falcons at #22 Navy Midshipmen: In the first battle of military academies, I think Navy has the edge. Air Force has been a bit grounded this season, while the ground game of Navy keeps chewing up yardage. NAVY
#25 San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Running Rebels: UNLV is not bad this year, but I don't think they have the power to beat the conference leading Aztecs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes: Last week proved that Lovey Smith still has a ways to go with his young team. IOWA
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers: Minnesota is mad that they lost the game in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter last week. They'll take their frustrations out on the Boilermakers. MINNESOTA
Other Games of Interest
Pittsburgh Panthers at Syracuse Orange: These two teams are fairly evenly matched, so this will be an exciting game to watch (at least for those who have the exclusive ACC Network package). In a game this close, I'll give the edge to the home team. SYRACUSE
LSU Tigers at Florida Gators: A battle of two underperforming SEC teams, this could come down to which team shows their potential. Florida's offense has been shaky under their new quarterback, but the more experience he gets, the better he should play. For that reason, I'll give the slight edge to FLORIDA
Sunday, October 1, 2017
NCAA Week 5 results and Top 25
Fewer upsets, but still some interesting results. As we get deeper into conference play, we should see more interesting games. The Big Ten has plenty of tough teams, the SEC teams (with the exception of Alabama and Georgia) are fairly evenly matched, and we still have questions about several ACC and Pac-12 teams. We also have many American Athletic teams in the rankings, so that conference could impact things as well.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [2]
3. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [3]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) [4]
5. Washington Huskies (5-0) [7]
6. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [5]
7. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [6]
8. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) [10]
9. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [9]
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [13]
11. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [15]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) [12]
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [14]
14. South Florida Bulls (5-0) [16]
15. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [18]
16. Washington State Cougars (5-0) [17]
17. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) [8]
18. USC Trojans (4-1) [11]
19. Texas Longhorns (2-2) [19]
20. Utah Utes (4-0) [20]
21. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) [NR]
22. Navy Midshipmen (4-0) [22]
23. Louisville Cardinals (4-1) [23]
24. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [NR]
25. San Diego State Aztecs (5-0) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#21], Minnesota Golden Gophers [#24], Iowa Hawkeyes [#25]
On the Edge: West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1), Kansas State Wildcats (3-1), Texas A&M Aggies (4-1), Michigan State Spartans (3-1), NC State Wolf Pack (4-1), Stanford Cardinal (3-2), Houston Cougars (3-1)
Big Ten Report
The first full week of conference play was interesting. Half of the games were blowouts and half were close battles. Ohio State and Penn State engineered two of the blowouts, but surprisingly Nebraska led the other. The Cornhuskers finally found their offense, and it exploded against Illinois. Of the close games, Iowa v Michigan State and Maryland v Minnesota were not too surprising, but Northwestern gave Wisconsin all they could handle. Of course, that is a trend with the Wildcats. They play a couple of tough conference opponents really tough, but then falter against a weaker opponent.
Upset Alert
Not as many, as certain conference opponents play other conference opponents tough regardless of record. We had one non-conference upset, though, as the Troy Trojans never trailed against LSU, and held off a fourth-quarter comeback by the Tigers.
Poor Performers
We had a couple of teams for whom offense was a big missing this week. Interestingly, both played on Friday night. Duke and Illinois, who had been posting some impressive offensive numbers in previous weeks, could not get anything going this past week. At least they had some squads working. Both Mississippi State and Tennessee completely collapsed.
One team proved the importance of turnovers. Memphis had difficulties holding onto the ball, and those turnovers led to their first loss.
Great Performers
A few teams had not had great performances so far in the season stepped up this week. Florida State was one. The Seminoles were determined to not suffer a 0-3 start, and they kept ahead of Wake Forest in order to prevent that. Marshall also stepped it up excellently this week. They proved that they have the strength to compete for the Conference USA title.
One team performed well in a loss. Charlotte had previous been atrocious this season, deserving their winless record. While they could not crack into the WIN column this week, they only barely missed it, and showed that they have the skill and power to achieve that first win soon. Another team performed well, and their loss was likely due because their opponent ALSO had a great performance. For the first time since I've tracked these great (and poor) performances, the same game produced two nominees. That game was the Oklahoma State v Texas Tech bonanza. The lead changed several times, and that's because both teams were driving on both sides of the ball. While it is not unusual that Big 12 games are high-scoring affairs, that is often because defense is lacking in many of their teams. That was not so in this game. While the offenses were definitely clicking, the defenses had many good plays as well. This was just a textbook example of an old-fashioned slugfest, where each yard is achieved by a clash between offense and defense.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (5-0) [2]
3. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [3]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) [4]
5. Washington Huskies (5-0) [7]
6. Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [5]
7. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [6]
8. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) [10]
9. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [9]
10. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1) [13]
11. UCF Golden Knights (3-0) [15]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) [12]
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) [14]
14. South Florida Bulls (5-0) [16]
15. Auburn Tigers (4-1) [18]
16. Washington State Cougars (5-0) [17]
17. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1) [8]
18. USC Trojans (4-1) [11]
19. Texas Longhorns (2-2) [19]
20. Utah Utes (4-0) [20]
21. Miami Hurricanes (3-0) [NR]
22. Navy Midshipmen (4-0) [22]
23. Louisville Cardinals (4-1) [23]
24. Oregon Ducks (4-1) [NR]
25. San Diego State Aztecs (5-0) [NR]
Dropped off: Mississippi State Bulldogs [#21], Minnesota Golden Gophers [#24], Iowa Hawkeyes [#25]
On the Edge: West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1), Kansas State Wildcats (3-1), Texas A&M Aggies (4-1), Michigan State Spartans (3-1), NC State Wolf Pack (4-1), Stanford Cardinal (3-2), Houston Cougars (3-1)
Big Ten Report
The first full week of conference play was interesting. Half of the games were blowouts and half were close battles. Ohio State and Penn State engineered two of the blowouts, but surprisingly Nebraska led the other. The Cornhuskers finally found their offense, and it exploded against Illinois. Of the close games, Iowa v Michigan State and Maryland v Minnesota were not too surprising, but Northwestern gave Wisconsin all they could handle. Of course, that is a trend with the Wildcats. They play a couple of tough conference opponents really tough, but then falter against a weaker opponent.
Upset Alert
Not as many, as certain conference opponents play other conference opponents tough regardless of record. We had one non-conference upset, though, as the Troy Trojans never trailed against LSU, and held off a fourth-quarter comeback by the Tigers.
Poor Performers
We had a couple of teams for whom offense was a big missing this week. Interestingly, both played on Friday night. Duke and Illinois, who had been posting some impressive offensive numbers in previous weeks, could not get anything going this past week. At least they had some squads working. Both Mississippi State and Tennessee completely collapsed.
One team proved the importance of turnovers. Memphis had difficulties holding onto the ball, and those turnovers led to their first loss.
Great Performers
A few teams had not had great performances so far in the season stepped up this week. Florida State was one. The Seminoles were determined to not suffer a 0-3 start, and they kept ahead of Wake Forest in order to prevent that. Marshall also stepped it up excellently this week. They proved that they have the strength to compete for the Conference USA title.
One team performed well in a loss. Charlotte had previous been atrocious this season, deserving their winless record. While they could not crack into the WIN column this week, they only barely missed it, and showed that they have the skill and power to achieve that first win soon. Another team performed well, and their loss was likely due because their opponent ALSO had a great performance. For the first time since I've tracked these great (and poor) performances, the same game produced two nominees. That game was the Oklahoma State v Texas Tech bonanza. The lead changed several times, and that's because both teams were driving on both sides of the ball. While it is not unusual that Big 12 games are high-scoring affairs, that is often because defense is lacking in many of their teams. That was not so in this game. While the offenses were definitely clicking, the defenses had many good plays as well. This was just a textbook example of an old-fashioned slugfest, where each yard is achieved by a clash between offense and defense.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)