I'm back! I hope you all had a fabulous summer and offseason. It's time to get back into the NCAA Football season.
For those of you who are new to my blog, let me review some of my policies that are extremely uncommon to find in the so-called "official" or "professional" analysts:
TOP 25 - My Top 25 is NOT based on my opinion, as most are. Nearly all national Top 25 rankings start pre-season, based on the personal biases or opinions of the people who create that ranking. They then "adjust" those rankings as the season progresses, but it takes a lot to convince them to disregard their initial opinion. My Top 25 is based SOLELY on the team's performance on the field, using a complex system of 16 measures (tabulation made easy thanks to a statistical analysis program I wrote. See, college statistics courses can come in handy!). Also, results against FCS teams are NOT included (unless the team LOSES to their FCS opponent, which normally makes them ineligible for the Top 25). Since so many teams play FCS opponents in the first two weeks, my first Top 25 will not appear until after Week 2, and that first ranking often changes greatly in the two weeks after.
PICKS: I organize my picks by day. Within each day, I will list games involving Top 25 teams, then Big 10 (as that's the conference I grew up with), and then other games of interest. This year, I will not include ANY FBS v FCS matchups unless I suspect the FCS team might pull off an upset.
Lastly, I
apologize in advance for any strangeness in the blog. I have noticed
that Google has performed an update on Blogger since I last posted in
January, and the update has caused Blogger some problems. Updates don't
always get saved in their entirety, and it reformats lists and special
characters. Hopefully I will spot all of these problems before posts
are published, but if I miss any, just be patient. This is the result
of having to deal with Google.
OK, with all of that established, let's get started:
Thursday night
Big Ten
North Carolina Tar Heels at Minnesota Golden Gophers : Minnesota can be a good team,but North Carolina has the potential to have a good season. Of course, the ACC can always surprise, as the Florida State game has already proven. NORTH CAROLINA by six
Friday night
Big Ten
Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans : Defense may be dominant in this game, as both teams have stronger defenses than offenses. The Spartans should have just enough offense to succeed. MICHIGAN STATE by ten
Western Michigan Broncos at Wisconsin Badgers : Yes, the MAC tends to play the Big Ten tough, but Wisconsin is just too strong a team to lose this one. WISCONSIN by 16
Other Games of Interest
Temple Owls at Oklahoma Sooners : This one is likely to be pretty one-sided. OKLAHOMA by lots
TCU Horned Frogs at Stanford Cardinal : TCU looks pretty good, so I have to give them an edge. Stanford can be unpredictable, though, so watch this one closely. TCU by four
Saturday
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at West Virginia Mountaineers : Penn State gets to start the season with a big win. PENN STATE by lots
UConn Huskies at Maryland Terrapins : It'll be another long season for UConn. MARYLAND by 24
Akron Zips at Ohio State Buckeyes : Much easier opening weekend opponent for the Buckeyes than last year. OHIO STATE by lots
Florida International Panthers at Indiana Hoosiers : Should be a decent victory for the Hoosiers, who are hoping to have a strong season. INDIANA by 20
UTEP Miners at Nebraska Cornhuskers : It's a new look Cornhusker team this year, but this game should look pretty normal. NEBRASKA by 16
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Northwestern Wildcats : If the Wildcats start off slow this season, they could lose this game. I think the Cats learned something from last year. NORTHWESTERN by eight
Idaho Vandals at Oregon Ducks : Okay, let's get this out of the way right now. Do I find it odd, and even creepy, to place four teams into the Big Ten? Absolutely, but I have to get used to it. Oregon will make it easy, as this game should be a breeze. OREGON by lots
Fresno State Bulldogs at Michigan Wolverines : Michigan lost some key talent from last season's National Championship team, but they're still good enough to wipe the field with the Dogs. MICHIGAN by lots
UCLA Burins at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors : Don't pay any attention to Hawaii's results this past weekend. This will be their first real challenge, and it won't end well for them. UCLA by lots
Other Games of Interest
Clemson Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs : Georgia is once again packed with talent. Great way to start the season. GEORGIA by 20
Colorado State Rams at Texas Longhorns : Texas gets a strong start to their season. TEXAS by lots
Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators : I'm going against the national "experts" on this one. The Hurricants have some talent, but it's raw. They need a loss to focus. That loss will occur here. Will that motivate them to do better? Probably, but they'll start the season with a loss. FLORIDA by six
North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Iowa State Cyclones : Here's my only FCS v FBS game this week. Iowa State sometimes struggles early in the season, and the Hawks have been a very strong team in recent years. While I am picking the Cyclones, this game is on upset alert. IOWA STATE by six
Ohio Bobcats at Syracuse Orange : Syracuse fans have high hopes for this season. They'll get a favorable start. SYRACUSE by 15
Kennesaw State Owls at UTSA Roadrunners : No, this is NOT a FCS v FBS pick, as the Owls rise into FBS status this season. Welcome to the FBS ranks, Owls! The Roadrunners will burst their balloon a bit. UTSA by lots
Old Dominion Monarchs at South Carolina Gamecocks : Another upset alert! The Gamecocks sometimes start slowly. Old Dominion was a strong team last season, and much of that squad returns. Watch out for Monarchs! SOUTH CAROLINA by six
UNLV Rebels at Houston Cougars : Houston is hoping for a strong season. This will be a good start. HOUSTON by 14
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas A&M Aggies : Don't count on an Aggies upset here. NOTRE DAME by 17
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats : This game could go either way. Kentucky often starts the season strong, and then fades as they enter SEC play. If they start a little slower, though, the Golden Eagles have the talent to push them. KENTUCKY by eight
Sunday
USC Trojans at LSU Tigers : This could be an exciting game! The Trojans have some new players, so I'm not sure how they'll do. LSU had a tendency to play tough opponents tough, so I favor them in this game, but the Trojans might surprise. LSU by six
Monday
Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles : Let's see how well the Seminoles bounce back from their loss to Georgia Tech. I think they will, but the Eagles may make it tough. FLORIDA STATE by five
