I'm combining the Top 25 with the picks, since there are so few games. Most of the conferences are still determining their champion this week; only four conferences already have their winner. Florida International won the Sun Belt, regardless of what happens this week, since they hold the tiebreaker over Troy. TCU won the Mountain West and finished unbeaten. Oregon is the same, having won their conference and are currently unbeaten. The Big Ten finished with a three-way tie. Wisconsin won the BCS bid due to their BCS rating, but based upon the OLD Big Ten rules, Michigan State would be considered the winner. Officially, it ends in a three-way tie.
Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Oregon Ducks (11-0) [2]
2. Auburn Tigers (12-0) [4]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) [3]
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) [5]
5. Stanford Cardinal (11-1) [6]
6. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1) [8]
7. Boise State Broncos (10-1) [1]
8. Nevada Wolfpack (11-1) [9]
9. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) [11]
10. Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2) [14]
11. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) [13]
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2) [7]
13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) [15]
14. Missouri Tigers (10-2) [17]
15. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) [12]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-2) [16]
17. Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2) [19]
18. Utah Utes (10-2) [18]
19. LSU Tigers (10-2) [10]
20. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3) [20]
21. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) [21]
22. Florida State Seminoles (9-3) [22]
23. Central Florida Golden Knights (9-3) [23]
24. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-3) [25]
25. Hawaii Warriors (9-3) [NR]
On the Edge: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (9-3)
Dropped: NC State Wolf Pack [#24]
I'll start the picks with the days prior to Saturday, then I'll examine games by their conference.
Thurs Dec 2
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats: The Sun Devils aren't bowl eligible, and the Wildcats already are, but that doesn't matter. These in-state rivalries are all about beating your opponent. The Sun Devils will battle hard, but the Wildcats should prevail. ARIZONA
Fri Dec 3
Illinois Fighting Illini at Fresno State Bulldogs: Illinois is back on track, and Fresno has barely scraped by in their games, so I have to favor my Illini in this, especially since the Illini need this game to be bowl eligible. The Bulldogs already have six FBS victories. ILLINOIS
Big East - There are three games that could determine the conference winner:
UConn Huskies at South Florida Bulls: If the Huskies win, they win the conference. That's great motivation, and the Huskies have been strong during this second half of the season. South Florida is getting some players back from injury, though, so they may surprise. UCONN
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 West Virginia Mountaineers: If UConn falls, the door is open for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are already guaranteed a bowl game, and they shouldn't have any trouble against Rutgers. WEST VIRGINIA
Pitt Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats: Pitt has an outside chance if both UConn and West Virginia lose. I don't see that happening, but Pitt still wants to win to ensure a bowl spot. They should get that. PITT
Pac-10
#1 Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers: The Beavers have been a bit disappointing this season, but if anything would inspire them to step up and play above themselves, it would be hosting the Ducks. The Beavers have actually upset conference rivals three times in the last four seasons when they have to come to Corvallis, so the Beavers are hoping that this week will be it. I don't think so, but they may slow down that vaulted Ducks offense. OREGON
USC Trojans at UCLA Bruins: Another fierce rivalry, records never matter for these games. USC has stumbled recently, but so has UCLA. I think this will be a close game, but the Trojans are hungry for a win. They can't go to a bowl, so beating UCLA will be their bowl game. USC
WAC - Another conference with a possibility of a three-way tie. If they settle it by total record, then Nevada is actually in the lead.
#8 Nevada Wolfpack at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: Thanks to playing a 13th game and having just one loss, Nevada can win the WAC with a victory. I don't think the Bulldogs will give them much trouble, so Nevada should get at least a share of their first WAC crown. NEVADA
Utah State Aggies at #7 Boise State Broncos: Boise is not unbeaten, and their loss to Nevada puts them in danger of missing the WAC title, but it's still been a good ride. Beating Utah State will be the capper. BOISE STATE
UNLV Running Rebels at #25 Hawaii Warriors: Hawaii has an outside chance of winning the conference. If Boise loses, Hawaii wins, since they hold the tiebreaker against Nevada. A three-way would actually be the worst result for Hawaii. They'll still go to a bowl game; likely their own. HAWAII
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP - #17 Northern Illinois Huskies at Miami Ohio Redhawks: Miami came on strong at the end of the season, but Northern Illinois has consistently shown the kind of firepower that wins conferences. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP - SMU Mustangs at #23 Central Florida Golden Knights: SMU had some help to get here. UCF was strong enough to get here on their own. They shouldn't have too much trouble winning this one. CENTRAL FLORIDA
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP - #22 Florida State Seminoles v #10 Virginia Tech Hokies: For the first time since the ACC expanded, a team has won every single conference game in a season. That's the Hokies. While the Seminoles would love to end that streak, I don't think they will. VIRGINIA TECH
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP - #2 Auburn Tigers v #21 South Carolina Gamecocks: I think Alabama had the best chance to beat Auburn; they led at halftime, but faltered in the second half. Stever Spurrier is capable of pulling off the upset, but I don't think the rest of the Gamecocks can do it. AUBURN
BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP - #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers v #11 Oklahoma Sooners: The rivalry continues, with a conference title and BCS bowl on the line! They didn't play each other this year, so this is a grudge match with much at stake. I expect the lead to switch several times. The victor could be the last team to hold the ball. Without knowing that, I like Oklahoma's chances. OKLAHOMA
Monday, November 29, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
NFL Week 12 picks
It's so good to be back! While I still have a ton of work to do, I couldn't resist blogging about the Thanksgiving games
Thanksgiving Day games:
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: The Lions have lost six Thanksgiving Day games in a row. Anyone want to bet on seven? The Patriots may not be as dominant as they typically are, but they have won eight games and continue to move the ball with a variety of plays that keeps a defense on their toes. PATS, 31-23
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have been reinvigorated with Jason Garrett as Head Coach. Add in the fact that they have won narely all of the past eight Thanksgiving Day games, and I have to gamble on an interesting upset. I'm helped by the fact that the Saints have stumbled in a couple of games this season, and I like my pick even more. COWBOYS, 24-23
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: The NFL Network will probably get the most one-sided game of the day. Another reason I'm happy I haven't paid the money for the NFL Network; in this case, I'd prefer to watch the college football game. JETS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns: QB Jimmy Clausen may be back in action for Carolina, which is good news given the interception frequency of replacement Brian St. Pierre. Ironically, it looks like Jake Delhomme will be starting for Cleveland against his former team. Delhomme didn't start out the season well with the Browns, but he understands enough about his former team that this is a game I think he can win. BROWNS, 23-20
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: Ooh, this should be a close game with several lead changes. Both teams have strong offenses and stingy defenses. With two teams so closely matched, I normally pick the home team. With an unbeaten home record this season, I'd have to be crazy to pick against Atlanta. Okay, call me crazy. I actually like the Packers' chances here. They've taken a beating recently in the media, and nothing fires up Aaron Rodgers more than disrespect. He'll be out to prove something in this game, and beating the team that is being touted as the best in the NFC will do it. PACK, 23-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: Eli Manning has been taking a beating in the press recently. The Giants love him, though, so they'll get themselves together to stuff the Jags. The Jags like to run the ball, and the Giants have a tough defensive line. Injuries have slowed QB David Garrard, and the Giants love to blitz. I think the Giants will slow them just enough to keep the Jags out of the end zone enough times for the Giants kicker to win the game for them. GIANTS, 26-21
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Favre has slowed and his body is finally giving out on him. The Redskins have allowed the second most yards of any NFL team this season, so the Vikings will move the ball, but a couple of key turnovers will kill the Vikings. REDSKINS, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Believe it or not, the Bills are on a two-game winning streak! Leave it to the Steelers defense to kill that streak. STEELERS, 27-13
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The Titans are the only team in the NFL who has played only one division game at this point. That means five of their last six games will be division games. Talk about pressure! That will get to them after a couple of weeks, but right now they'll be prepared for battle. The only problem -- who will be battling? Vince Young has been pulled from his starting job again after a tempermental blow-up. Now they have to rely on Rusty Smith. Not a good formula against the Texans. Fortunately, the Texans have been allowing lots of yards and lots of points, so Rusty has a great game to practice. I don't think the Texans' defense will know what to expect from him, and their secondary is not fast enough to adjust to some tricks that Jeff Fisher will invent. TITANS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: Matt Cassel has the Chiefs on the move again, while Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks continue their "up again, down again" season. The Seahawks' inconsistency gives them the chance to win any week, but I'll stick with the consistency and talent of the Chiefs. CHIEFS, 24-21
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders: The Dolphins are starting to collapse, while the Raiders have shown some flashes of their former brilliance. Jason Campbell needs to show more consistency, but at least he makes fewer mistakes than his predecessor, JaMarcus Russell. With the Dolphins suffering injuries and seeming confused, the Raiders defense will be the deciding factor. RAIDERS, 23-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: I'd love to see my Bears defeat the Eagles, but I think Michael Vick is just too quick for the Bears to counter. Add the Eagles' tendency to blitz, and the problems the Bears have had with their offensive line, then the Bears stand no chance. The score might be close, thanks to a projected defense turnover and great kick return. I'm not picking either to result in an immediate touchdown, but the short field in each case will allow the Bears ten extra points. EAGLES, 27-17
St Louis Rams at Denver Broncos: Denver has been self-destructing for much of this season, but Kyle Orton is still putting up impressive numbers. Given the fragile Rams defense, I think that'll be enough for Denver to squeak out a victory. BRONCOS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at Baltimore Ravens: The Bucs have been a fierce force on the road this year, but Baltimore's defense is tough. This game will be close, and close games are often decided by the better defense. That's Baltimore. RAVENS, 23-20
Sunday Night - Football Night in America: San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: Last week the Colts lost a game they should have won. That will make them hungry. Their receiving corps has been a revolving door of players, mostly due to injuries, but Peyton Manning still finds targets for his passes. Furthermore, the Colts have been a much stronger team at home than on the road, so I have to like their chances here. COLTS, 27-24
Monday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: The 49ers have been disappointing this season, but nedw QB Troy Smith is 2-1, a refreshing change from ineffective Alex Smith. The former Buckeye still likes to run if his first receiving choice is covered, but he's more mobile than Alex and showing more accuracy. He's revitalized the team, much like Vince Young did for Tennessee last season, so I have to like that mood to continue. 49ERS, 23-20
Thanksgiving Day games:
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: The Lions have lost six Thanksgiving Day games in a row. Anyone want to bet on seven? The Patriots may not be as dominant as they typically are, but they have won eight games and continue to move the ball with a variety of plays that keeps a defense on their toes. PATS, 31-23
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have been reinvigorated with Jason Garrett as Head Coach. Add in the fact that they have won narely all of the past eight Thanksgiving Day games, and I have to gamble on an interesting upset. I'm helped by the fact that the Saints have stumbled in a couple of games this season, and I like my pick even more. COWBOYS, 24-23
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: The NFL Network will probably get the most one-sided game of the day. Another reason I'm happy I haven't paid the money for the NFL Network; in this case, I'd prefer to watch the college football game. JETS, 27-17
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns: QB Jimmy Clausen may be back in action for Carolina, which is good news given the interception frequency of replacement Brian St. Pierre. Ironically, it looks like Jake Delhomme will be starting for Cleveland against his former team. Delhomme didn't start out the season well with the Browns, but he understands enough about his former team that this is a game I think he can win. BROWNS, 23-20
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: Ooh, this should be a close game with several lead changes. Both teams have strong offenses and stingy defenses. With two teams so closely matched, I normally pick the home team. With an unbeaten home record this season, I'd have to be crazy to pick against Atlanta. Okay, call me crazy. I actually like the Packers' chances here. They've taken a beating recently in the media, and nothing fires up Aaron Rodgers more than disrespect. He'll be out to prove something in this game, and beating the team that is being touted as the best in the NFC will do it. PACK, 23-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: Eli Manning has been taking a beating in the press recently. The Giants love him, though, so they'll get themselves together to stuff the Jags. The Jags like to run the ball, and the Giants have a tough defensive line. Injuries have slowed QB David Garrard, and the Giants love to blitz. I think the Giants will slow them just enough to keep the Jags out of the end zone enough times for the Giants kicker to win the game for them. GIANTS, 26-21
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Favre has slowed and his body is finally giving out on him. The Redskins have allowed the second most yards of any NFL team this season, so the Vikings will move the ball, but a couple of key turnovers will kill the Vikings. REDSKINS, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Believe it or not, the Bills are on a two-game winning streak! Leave it to the Steelers defense to kill that streak. STEELERS, 27-13
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: The Titans are the only team in the NFL who has played only one division game at this point. That means five of their last six games will be division games. Talk about pressure! That will get to them after a couple of weeks, but right now they'll be prepared for battle. The only problem -- who will be battling? Vince Young has been pulled from his starting job again after a tempermental blow-up. Now they have to rely on Rusty Smith. Not a good formula against the Texans. Fortunately, the Texans have been allowing lots of yards and lots of points, so Rusty has a great game to practice. I don't think the Texans' defense will know what to expect from him, and their secondary is not fast enough to adjust to some tricks that Jeff Fisher will invent. TITANS, 27-23
Sunday late games:
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: Matt Cassel has the Chiefs on the move again, while Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks continue their "up again, down again" season. The Seahawks' inconsistency gives them the chance to win any week, but I'll stick with the consistency and talent of the Chiefs. CHIEFS, 24-21
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders: The Dolphins are starting to collapse, while the Raiders have shown some flashes of their former brilliance. Jason Campbell needs to show more consistency, but at least he makes fewer mistakes than his predecessor, JaMarcus Russell. With the Dolphins suffering injuries and seeming confused, the Raiders defense will be the deciding factor. RAIDERS, 23-16
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: I'd love to see my Bears defeat the Eagles, but I think Michael Vick is just too quick for the Bears to counter. Add the Eagles' tendency to blitz, and the problems the Bears have had with their offensive line, then the Bears stand no chance. The score might be close, thanks to a projected defense turnover and great kick return. I'm not picking either to result in an immediate touchdown, but the short field in each case will allow the Bears ten extra points. EAGLES, 27-17
St Louis Rams at Denver Broncos: Denver has been self-destructing for much of this season, but Kyle Orton is still putting up impressive numbers. Given the fragile Rams defense, I think that'll be enough for Denver to squeak out a victory. BRONCOS, 23-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at Baltimore Ravens: The Bucs have been a fierce force on the road this year, but Baltimore's defense is tough. This game will be close, and close games are often decided by the better defense. That's Baltimore. RAVENS, 23-20
Sunday Night - Football Night in America: San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: Last week the Colts lost a game they should have won. That will make them hungry. Their receiving corps has been a revolving door of players, mostly due to injuries, but Peyton Manning still finds targets for his passes. Furthermore, the Colts have been a much stronger team at home than on the road, so I have to like their chances here. COLTS, 27-24
Monday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: The 49ers have been disappointing this season, but nedw QB Troy Smith is 2-1, a refreshing change from ineffective Alex Smith. The former Buckeye still likes to run if his first receiving choice is covered, but he's more mobile than Alex and showing more accuracy. He's revitalized the team, much like Vince Young did for Tennessee last season, so I have to like that mood to continue. 49ERS, 23-20
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
NCAA Week 13 picks
I didn't get this done in time for Tuesday's game, but I can continue from there.
Thurs Nov 25
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns: This Thanksgiving tradition usually determines a division title. Not so this year, but it will help give the Aggies a good bowl game. While the Longhorns will fight hard, this year is a rebuilding year for the Horns, and they won't be able to hold back A&M. TEXAS A&M
Fri Nov 26
#1 Boise State Broncos at #9 Nevada Wolfpack: This might be the best chance someone has to beat Boise State. The Broncos offense is fierce, though, and I don't think the Nevada defense can slow them enough. Nevada doesn't move the ball as quickly, so they get to rest their defense when the offense is on the field. Can winning the ball control factor give Nevada a win? I don't think so, but this game might be closer than the Broncos would like. BOISE STATE
Arizona Wildcats at #2 Oregon Ducks: Oregon is the hottest offense in the conference, and they had a bye week to prepare more surprises. Arizona is good, but not that good! OREGON
#4 Auburn Tigers at #12 Alabama Crimson Tide: This rivalry gets hot, and this year it gets interesting! While Alabama is out of contention for the division title, they'd love to play spoiler and ruin Auburn's unbeaten season. Alabama has been a tough team at home, and Auburn hasn't been a great road team this season. While Mark Ingram healthy, I think the Tide can control the pace of the game and frustrate Auburn. ALABAMA in an upset!
Colorado Buffaloes at #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers get to recover from their loss last week by beating on the conference doormat. NEBRASKA
#19 Northern Illinois Huskies at Eastern Michigan Eagles: Eastern isn't having a good year, while the Huskies will simply use this as a warmup for the conference title game. Unlike the NFL, though, they won't rest their starters for the whole game, but will keep them in long enough to establish a large lead. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
#25 West Virginia Mountaineers at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt can practically seal the title with a victory. However, the Big East is rarely so easily settled. I think the Mountaineers will beat Pitt, once again sending the Big East into the final week with three teams vying for the title. WEST VIRGINIA
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Both teams have division title asperations, so this will be an exciting game. The winner could be the last team with the ball. I usually favor home teams in this circumstance, but I think Southern Miss is peaking at the right time, and could pull off the win here. SOUTHERN MISS
Top 25
#3 TCU Horned Frogs at New Mexico Lobos: New Mexico has as many wins as TCU has losses -- none. This game will be over by the end of the first quarter. TCU
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: This used to be the battle for the conference, but it hasn't been that way for nearly a decade. Ohio State has owned Michigan, whether this game is played at the Big House or the Horseshoe. Ohio State will wrap up their season with this win, but will need help to get a conference title. OHIO STATE
Oregon State Beavers at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Beavers have a tendency to pull off an upset sometime during each season, but I don't think it'll be here. The Cardinal have a strong defense, Andrew Luck is leading a strong offense, and Jim Harbough has the team highly disciplined. It's Stanford's year for a New Years bowl, or perhaps an at large BCS bid. STANFORD
Northwestern Wildcats at #8 Wisconsin Badgers: Both Michigan State and Ohio State will have played by the time Wisconsin does, so the Badgers will know if they have a chance at the conference title. Even so, I don't think they'll need such impetus to beat Northwestern. The Wildcats, already hampered by injury, lost a couple of key players in their battle against Illinois last week, so the Badgers shouldn't have much trouble knocking off Northwestern. WISCONSIN
#10 LSU Tigers at #15 Arkansas Razorbacks: I seem to be picking SEC upsets this week! LSU has had a good season, but I think Ryan Mallet and company are saving one of their best performances for the last week. ARKANSAS
#11 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: The Spartans need this win to capture the Big Ten title. They have the power to do it. Perhaps JoePa should have insinuated that he was thinking of retiring; that would have inspired his players to win this game for their coach. Without that incentive, I think the Spartans will capture their first Big Ten title in twenty years. MICHIGAN STATE
Virginia Cavaliers at #14 Virgnia Tech Hokies: This in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hokies for years. That streak will continue. VIRGINIA TECH
#17 Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks: Missouri shouldn't have much trouble beating the Jayhawks. They'll know the outcome of the previous day's Nebraska game, and know whether the win advances them to the conference title game or not. MISSOURI
BYU Cougars at #18 Utah Utes: Utah ended the losing streak last week. Can they capture their tenth victory? I think so, as BYU has not been doing very well this season. UTAH
#21 South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: This non-conference game will serve as a perfect warmup for the Gamecocks' next game -- the SEC Championship Game. SOUTH CAROLINA
Florida Gators at #22 Florida State Seminoles: For most of the Eighties and into the Nineties, the Seminoles owned this rivalry. In this century, it has been Florida doing the beating. The Seminoles look forward to turning the tables on the Gators in this season, when the Gators are struggling and the Seminoles are strong. FLORIDA STATE
#23 Central Florida Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers: The Knights need a win to capture the division title. That incentive will make them play harder, not that they need the additional incentive to beat the Tigers. Memphis is having a tough year. CENTRAL FLORIDA
#24 NC State Wolf Pack at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland now longer has a chance at the title, but they'd love to play spoiler. I think this game will be very close, but the Wolf Pack should be able to pull this one out, and win a trip to the ACC Championship Game. NC STATE
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers: Since Minnesota upset my beloved Illini, Indiana is the only team to have lost all of their conference games. I think Purdue will keep that status intact. PURDUE
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: I think the Illini upset was the Gophers' only chance. They caught the Illini exhausted after the multi-overtime heartbreaker against Michigan. Iowa wants a bid at a good bowl game; a win is necessary. IOWA
Game of the Week: #13 Oklahoma Sooners at #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This normally heated rivalry gets even more interesting this year. Not only are both teams ranked, but the winner of this game plays in the Big XII Championship Game. If there was ever a game that the Sooners would get up for, it would be this one (except possibly the Red River Rivalry). They already beat Texas, so beating State would be a great year. Somehow, though, I think the Cowboys will prevail. Oklahoma will come out shooting, and might even lead going into the fourth quarter, but the Cowboys offense will prove just a bit too much. OKLAHOMA STATE
Other Games of Interest
Hawaii Warriors at New Mexico State Aggies: The Aggies have a couple more wins than their cross-state rival Lobos, but they still will be horribly overmatched. The Warriors ususally struggle away from home, but they've played well on the road this season. HAWAII
Thurs Nov 25
#20 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Longhorns: This Thanksgiving tradition usually determines a division title. Not so this year, but it will help give the Aggies a good bowl game. While the Longhorns will fight hard, this year is a rebuilding year for the Horns, and they won't be able to hold back A&M. TEXAS A&M
Fri Nov 26
#1 Boise State Broncos at #9 Nevada Wolfpack: This might be the best chance someone has to beat Boise State. The Broncos offense is fierce, though, and I don't think the Nevada defense can slow them enough. Nevada doesn't move the ball as quickly, so they get to rest their defense when the offense is on the field. Can winning the ball control factor give Nevada a win? I don't think so, but this game might be closer than the Broncos would like. BOISE STATE
Arizona Wildcats at #2 Oregon Ducks: Oregon is the hottest offense in the conference, and they had a bye week to prepare more surprises. Arizona is good, but not that good! OREGON
#4 Auburn Tigers at #12 Alabama Crimson Tide: This rivalry gets hot, and this year it gets interesting! While Alabama is out of contention for the division title, they'd love to play spoiler and ruin Auburn's unbeaten season. Alabama has been a tough team at home, and Auburn hasn't been a great road team this season. While Mark Ingram healthy, I think the Tide can control the pace of the game and frustrate Auburn. ALABAMA in an upset!
Colorado Buffaloes at #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers: The Cornhuskers get to recover from their loss last week by beating on the conference doormat. NEBRASKA
#19 Northern Illinois Huskies at Eastern Michigan Eagles: Eastern isn't having a good year, while the Huskies will simply use this as a warmup for the conference title game. Unlike the NFL, though, they won't rest their starters for the whole game, but will keep them in long enough to establish a large lead. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
#25 West Virginia Mountaineers at Pittsburgh Panthers: Pitt can practically seal the title with a victory. However, the Big East is rarely so easily settled. I think the Mountaineers will beat Pitt, once again sending the Big East into the final week with three teams vying for the title. WEST VIRGINIA
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Both teams have division title asperations, so this will be an exciting game. The winner could be the last team with the ball. I usually favor home teams in this circumstance, but I think Southern Miss is peaking at the right time, and could pull off the win here. SOUTHERN MISS
Top 25
#3 TCU Horned Frogs at New Mexico Lobos: New Mexico has as many wins as TCU has losses -- none. This game will be over by the end of the first quarter. TCU
Michigan Wolverines at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: This used to be the battle for the conference, but it hasn't been that way for nearly a decade. Ohio State has owned Michigan, whether this game is played at the Big House or the Horseshoe. Ohio State will wrap up their season with this win, but will need help to get a conference title. OHIO STATE
Oregon State Beavers at #6 Stanford Cardinal: The Beavers have a tendency to pull off an upset sometime during each season, but I don't think it'll be here. The Cardinal have a strong defense, Andrew Luck is leading a strong offense, and Jim Harbough has the team highly disciplined. It's Stanford's year for a New Years bowl, or perhaps an at large BCS bid. STANFORD
Northwestern Wildcats at #8 Wisconsin Badgers: Both Michigan State and Ohio State will have played by the time Wisconsin does, so the Badgers will know if they have a chance at the conference title. Even so, I don't think they'll need such impetus to beat Northwestern. The Wildcats, already hampered by injury, lost a couple of key players in their battle against Illinois last week, so the Badgers shouldn't have much trouble knocking off Northwestern. WISCONSIN
#10 LSU Tigers at #15 Arkansas Razorbacks: I seem to be picking SEC upsets this week! LSU has had a good season, but I think Ryan Mallet and company are saving one of their best performances for the last week. ARKANSAS
#11 Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions: The Spartans need this win to capture the Big Ten title. They have the power to do it. Perhaps JoePa should have insinuated that he was thinking of retiring; that would have inspired his players to win this game for their coach. Without that incentive, I think the Spartans will capture their first Big Ten title in twenty years. MICHIGAN STATE
Virginia Cavaliers at #14 Virgnia Tech Hokies: This in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hokies for years. That streak will continue. VIRGINIA TECH
#17 Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks: Missouri shouldn't have much trouble beating the Jayhawks. They'll know the outcome of the previous day's Nebraska game, and know whether the win advances them to the conference title game or not. MISSOURI
BYU Cougars at #18 Utah Utes: Utah ended the losing streak last week. Can they capture their tenth victory? I think so, as BYU has not been doing very well this season. UTAH
#21 South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers: This non-conference game will serve as a perfect warmup for the Gamecocks' next game -- the SEC Championship Game. SOUTH CAROLINA
Florida Gators at #22 Florida State Seminoles: For most of the Eighties and into the Nineties, the Seminoles owned this rivalry. In this century, it has been Florida doing the beating. The Seminoles look forward to turning the tables on the Gators in this season, when the Gators are struggling and the Seminoles are strong. FLORIDA STATE
#23 Central Florida Golden Knights at Memphis Tigers: The Knights need a win to capture the division title. That incentive will make them play harder, not that they need the additional incentive to beat the Tigers. Memphis is having a tough year. CENTRAL FLORIDA
#24 NC State Wolf Pack at Maryland Terrapins: Maryland now longer has a chance at the title, but they'd love to play spoiler. I think this game will be very close, but the Wolf Pack should be able to pull this one out, and win a trip to the ACC Championship Game. NC STATE
Big Ten
Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers: Since Minnesota upset my beloved Illini, Indiana is the only team to have lost all of their conference games. I think Purdue will keep that status intact. PURDUE
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers: I think the Illini upset was the Gophers' only chance. They caught the Illini exhausted after the multi-overtime heartbreaker against Michigan. Iowa wants a bid at a good bowl game; a win is necessary. IOWA
Game of the Week: #13 Oklahoma Sooners at #7 Oklahoma State Cowboys: This normally heated rivalry gets even more interesting this year. Not only are both teams ranked, but the winner of this game plays in the Big XII Championship Game. If there was ever a game that the Sooners would get up for, it would be this one (except possibly the Red River Rivalry). They already beat Texas, so beating State would be a great year. Somehow, though, I think the Cowboys will prevail. Oklahoma will come out shooting, and might even lead going into the fourth quarter, but the Cowboys offense will prove just a bit too much. OKLAHOMA STATE
Other Games of Interest
Hawaii Warriors at New Mexico State Aggies: The Aggies have a couple more wins than their cross-state rival Lobos, but they still will be horribly overmatched. The Warriors ususally struggle away from home, but they've played well on the road this season. HAWAII
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
NCAA Week 12 Top 25
Fascinating week where three of the top five teams didn't play and there were only two upsets in the Top 25. That resulted in minimum movement, although some teams were lost because they played higher ranked teams.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Boise State Broncos (10-0) [1]
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0) [2]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) [3]
4. Auburn Tigers (11-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [5]
6. Stanford Cardinal (10-1) [6]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [7]
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-1) [8]
9. Nevada Wolfpack (10-1) [11]
10. LSU Tigers (10-1) [10]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-1) [12]
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2) [13]
13. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [14]
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-2) [15]
15. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2) [16]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) [9]
17. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [17]
18. Utah Utes (9-2) [18]
19. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2) [21]
20. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) [20]
21. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) [25]
22. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) [23]
23. Central Florida Golden Knights (8-3) [NR]
24. NC State Wolf Pack (8-3) [24]
25. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) [NR]
On the Edge: Hawaii Warriors (8-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-3), Temple Owls (8-3), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-3), Ohio Bobcats (8-3), Air Force Falcons (8-4)
Dropped: Iowa Hawkeyes [#19], Temple Owls [#22]
ACC Atlantic: Florida State holds a half game lead, but NC State has the tiebreaker. If the Wolfpack win, they win the division. If not, the Seminoles win
ACC Coastal: The Hokies have it
Big XII North: If Nebraska wins or Missouri loses, the Cornhuskers win. If Nebraska loses and Missouri wins, the Tigers go to the Championship Game
Big XII South: This week's game between Oklahoma and the Cowboys decides the title.
Big East: If Pittsburgh wins this week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers are out of the race. Pitt would still need to beat Cincy, as UConn beat them. However, if UConn falters, Pitt seals it with one win.
Big Ten: If Michigan State wins, they capture the title. If they lose and Wisconsin wins, the Badgers have it. If both lose and Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes are champs.
Conf USA East: If UCF wins, they capture the title. If the Knights lose and S Miss wins, the Golden Eagles advance. If both lose and East Carolina beats SMU, the Pirates move on to the conference championship.
Conf USA West: Tulsa wins the division if they win. If they lose and SMU beats East Carolina, the Mustangs play the East winner.
Mountain West: won by TCU
MAC East: It's now simple. If Ohio wins, they capture the division title. A Bobcat loss and Redhawk victory against Temple, and Miami Ohio plays Northern Illinois for the conference title.
SEC: South Carolina v Auburn for the title
Pac-10: Oregon wins the title with one more victory. They'd have to lose twice and Stanford win this week for the Cardinal to go to the Rose Bowl.
Sun Belt: Florida International wins the conference with one more win. Troy needs to win twice and FIU lose once for the Trojans to win
WAC: If Boise beats Nevada, they win the conference. Hawaii can win if they win their remaining games and Boise loses their remaining games. Nevada needs Boise to lose out and Hawaii to lose one AND Nevada themselves must win out.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Boise State Broncos (10-0) [1]
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0) [2]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) [3]
4. Auburn Tigers (11-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) [5]
6. Stanford Cardinal (10-1) [6]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1) [7]
8. Wisconsin Badgers (10-1) [8]
9. Nevada Wolfpack (10-1) [11]
10. LSU Tigers (10-1) [10]
11. Michigan State Spartans (10-1) [12]
12. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2) [13]
13. Oklahoma Sooners (9-2) [14]
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-2) [15]
15. Arkansas Razorbacks (9-2) [16]
16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-2) [9]
17. Missouri Tigers (9-2) [17]
18. Utah Utes (9-2) [18]
19. Northern Illinois Huskies (9-2) [21]
20. Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) [20]
21. South Carolina Gamecocks (8-3) [25]
22. Florida State Seminoles (8-3) [23]
23. Central Florida Golden Knights (8-3) [NR]
24. NC State Wolf Pack (8-3) [24]
25. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) [NR]
On the Edge: Hawaii Warriors (8-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-3), Temple Owls (8-3), Southern Miss Golden Eagles (8-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-3), Ohio Bobcats (8-3), Air Force Falcons (8-4)
Dropped: Iowa Hawkeyes [#19], Temple Owls [#22]
ACC Atlantic: Florida State holds a half game lead, but NC State has the tiebreaker. If the Wolfpack win, they win the division. If not, the Seminoles win
ACC Coastal: The Hokies have it
Big XII North: If Nebraska wins or Missouri loses, the Cornhuskers win. If Nebraska loses and Missouri wins, the Tigers go to the Championship Game
Big XII South: This week's game between Oklahoma and the Cowboys decides the title.
Big East: If Pittsburgh wins this week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers are out of the race. Pitt would still need to beat Cincy, as UConn beat them. However, if UConn falters, Pitt seals it with one win.
Big Ten: If Michigan State wins, they capture the title. If they lose and Wisconsin wins, the Badgers have it. If both lose and Ohio State wins, the Buckeyes are champs.
Conf USA East: If UCF wins, they capture the title. If the Knights lose and S Miss wins, the Golden Eagles advance. If both lose and East Carolina beats SMU, the Pirates move on to the conference championship.
Conf USA West: Tulsa wins the division if they win. If they lose and SMU beats East Carolina, the Mustangs play the East winner.
Mountain West: won by TCU
MAC East: It's now simple. If Ohio wins, they capture the division title. A Bobcat loss and Redhawk victory against Temple, and Miami Ohio plays Northern Illinois for the conference title.
SEC: South Carolina v Auburn for the title
Pac-10: Oregon wins the title with one more victory. They'd have to lose twice and Stanford win this week for the Cardinal to go to the Rose Bowl.
Sun Belt: Florida International wins the conference with one more win. Troy needs to win twice and FIU lose once for the Trojans to win
WAC: If Boise beats Nevada, they win the conference. Hawaii can win if they win their remaining games and Boise loses their remaining games. Nevada needs Boise to lose out and Hawaii to lose one AND Nevada themselves must win out.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
NCAA Week 12 picks
This is a vital week for many teams chasing conference and division titles. There were plenty of candidates for Game of the Week -- I picked one that could be exciting.
Tues Nov 16
Ohio Bobcats at #22 Temple Owls: Temple's remaining games are crucial. They win them, they win the division. Ohio has had flashes of brilliance this season, but Temple has been more consistent. The Owls should also benefit from last week's bye. TEMPLE
Wed Nov 17
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Akron Zips: Miami Ohio is chasing Ohio and Temple for the title. They could still gain the division title even if they lose, so long as they beat Temple next week. Still, I don't think they'll want the Zips to upset them. MIAMI OHIO
Thurs Nov 18
Georgia State Panthers at #13 Alabama Crimson Tide: Easy victory before Alabama faces Auburn. ALABAMA
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies: I think everyone would agree that Jake Locker has not been the commanding quarterback and Heisman frontrunner he was touted as during the preseason. However, he still has some life left, and I think the Huskies will give the Bruins everything they can handle. For my first upset of the week, I pick WASHINGTON
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Running Rebels: The Mountain West title is unattainable, but a good bowl game is still within the Falcons' grasp. UNLV has power, but the Falcons have more. AIR FORCE
Fri Nov 19
Fresno State Bulldogs at #1 Boise State Broncos: This is the only challenge remaining for Boise State until their bowl game. Boise should still be able to succeed. BOISE STATE
Top 25
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #19 Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa should be good and pissed after last week's loss, and they'll want to take that out on their next opponent. They should start strong, and establish a lead against Ohio State, but I think the Buckeyes defense will turn things around in the second half. OHIO STATE
#6 Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears: Stanford has quietly become one of the best one-loss teams in the country. While Andrew Luck is leading the offense well, Stanford's success has largely been due to their defense. A Pac-10 team with a defense? That's why they're so good. STANFORD
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks: The Cowboys want to enter their rivalry game against Oklahoma with a win. That should happen. OKLAHOMA STATE
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines: Wisconsin scored the third-most points in team history last week. I don't expect another offensive explosion like that, but it's nice to know they can do it. Michigan stretched Illinois' defense into four overtimes. They will push Wisconsin, too. This game may be decided by a field goal. WISCONSIN
#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Texas A&M Aggies: The Cornhuskers can reserve their spot in the conference title game with a win over the Aggies. The Aggies started the season slowly, but they've been tough recently. They won't make it easy for Nebraska, but the Huskers should be able to punch their title game ticket. NEBRASKA
Ole Miss Rebels at #10 LSU Tigers: The Tigers are out of the SEC Championship Game race, but an at-large bid for a BCS bowl is possible. They need to have more outstanding victories, though, so look for them to spank Miss. LSU
New Mexico State Aggies at #11 Nevada Wolf Pack: Nevada knows the only shot at the WAC title is to win out, so they'll roll over New Mexico State. NEVADA
Purdue Boilermakers at #12 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans had a bye week and are battling for a rare conference title. Watch out, Purdue, this will be a long game! MICHIGAN STATE
#14 Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears: Baylor would love to jump back into the Top 25, but Oklahoma is preparing for the shoot-out against Okie State next week. The Bears will be the targets, and will end up looking like a bearskin rug by the end of the game. OKLAHOMA
#15 Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes: Tech wins, and they win the Coastal division. They haven't lost in the conference yet, and I don't think they will now. VIRGINIA TECH
#16 Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs lost last week, so they're fighting mad. Ryan Mallet and company are walking into a dangerous situation. I think they'll prevail, but don't be surprised to see Mississippi State pull off the upset. ARKANSAS
#17 Missouri Tigers at Iowa State Cyclones: Missouri is all but out of BCS bowl contention, but they won't give up. They expected better of themselves this season, so they want to end strongly to redeem themelves. The Cyclones are good, but Missouri is determined. MISSOURI
#18 Utah Utes at San Diego State Aztecs: Could Utah lose three games in a row? The Aztecs are feisty, but the Utes are desperate to stop this slide. Utah should prevail, but if the cause of their decline isn't found, they could lose yet again. UTAH
#21 Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Broncos: This win will put Northern Illinois into the conference title game. They should get it. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
#24 NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels: NC State is trying to keep pace with Florida State for the Atlantic division title. Add in the in-state rivalry, and this will be a brutal game. NC STATE
Troy Trojans at #25 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks have a nice leisurely game to warm up for the SEC Championship Game. SOUTH CAROLINA
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana found some life last week, but so did many of the conference bottom dwellers. Somehow I don't think they can do it again. Penn State, on the other hand, is getting some play from their young players. PENN STATE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: I was hoping Illinois wouldn't need to beat Northwestern to stay on track for bowl eligibility, but that's how it is. While the Illini are capable of the upset, their defense has been vacant the past two weeks. If they don't get back on track, they don't stand a chance. NORTHWESTERN
Game of the Week: #23 Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins: The Terrapins have a chance to play for the conference title, but they have to beat both Florida State and NC State to get there. Maryland will fight hard for the chance to play for their first ACC title since the expansion, but I think the Seminoles are just a little bit better. FLORIDA STATE
Other Games of Interest
West Virginia Mountaineers at Louisville Cardinals: West Virginia still has an outside chance for the conference title, so they'll fight hard. It should be hard enough to succeed. WEST VIRGINIA
UTEP Miners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa wants to continue winning to keep SMU off their back. This should be one. TULSA
Houston Cougars at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Southern Miss needs help to win the division. They know they can't slip up by having another loss. Houston is a tough customer, though, and could make it difficult. I'll pick the home team, but this one could really go either way. SOUTHERN MISS
USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers: USC wants to win as many games as they can, since they don't have postseason possibilities. The Beavers can be tough, but USC is determined. USC
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Warriors: The Warriors need to win every game to have even a remote chance to win the conference. If they don't, they still have their own bowl game. HAWAII
Tues Nov 16
Ohio Bobcats at #22 Temple Owls: Temple's remaining games are crucial. They win them, they win the division. Ohio has had flashes of brilliance this season, but Temple has been more consistent. The Owls should also benefit from last week's bye. TEMPLE
Wed Nov 17
Miami Ohio Redhawks at Akron Zips: Miami Ohio is chasing Ohio and Temple for the title. They could still gain the division title even if they lose, so long as they beat Temple next week. Still, I don't think they'll want the Zips to upset them. MIAMI OHIO
Thurs Nov 18
Georgia State Panthers at #13 Alabama Crimson Tide: Easy victory before Alabama faces Auburn. ALABAMA
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies: I think everyone would agree that Jake Locker has not been the commanding quarterback and Heisman frontrunner he was touted as during the preseason. However, he still has some life left, and I think the Huskies will give the Bruins everything they can handle. For my first upset of the week, I pick WASHINGTON
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Running Rebels: The Mountain West title is unattainable, but a good bowl game is still within the Falcons' grasp. UNLV has power, but the Falcons have more. AIR FORCE
Fri Nov 19
Fresno State Bulldogs at #1 Boise State Broncos: This is the only challenge remaining for Boise State until their bowl game. Boise should still be able to succeed. BOISE STATE
Top 25
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #19 Iowa Hawkeyes: Iowa should be good and pissed after last week's loss, and they'll want to take that out on their next opponent. They should start strong, and establish a lead against Ohio State, but I think the Buckeyes defense will turn things around in the second half. OHIO STATE
#6 Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears: Stanford has quietly become one of the best one-loss teams in the country. While Andrew Luck is leading the offense well, Stanford's success has largely been due to their defense. A Pac-10 team with a defense? That's why they're so good. STANFORD
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks: The Cowboys want to enter their rivalry game against Oklahoma with a win. That should happen. OKLAHOMA STATE
#8 Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines: Wisconsin scored the third-most points in team history last week. I don't expect another offensive explosion like that, but it's nice to know they can do it. Michigan stretched Illinois' defense into four overtimes. They will push Wisconsin, too. This game may be decided by a field goal. WISCONSIN
#9 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #20 Texas A&M Aggies: The Cornhuskers can reserve their spot in the conference title game with a win over the Aggies. The Aggies started the season slowly, but they've been tough recently. They won't make it easy for Nebraska, but the Huskers should be able to punch their title game ticket. NEBRASKA
Ole Miss Rebels at #10 LSU Tigers: The Tigers are out of the SEC Championship Game race, but an at-large bid for a BCS bowl is possible. They need to have more outstanding victories, though, so look for them to spank Miss. LSU
New Mexico State Aggies at #11 Nevada Wolf Pack: Nevada knows the only shot at the WAC title is to win out, so they'll roll over New Mexico State. NEVADA
Purdue Boilermakers at #12 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans had a bye week and are battling for a rare conference title. Watch out, Purdue, this will be a long game! MICHIGAN STATE
#14 Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears: Baylor would love to jump back into the Top 25, but Oklahoma is preparing for the shoot-out against Okie State next week. The Bears will be the targets, and will end up looking like a bearskin rug by the end of the game. OKLAHOMA
#15 Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes: Tech wins, and they win the Coastal division. They haven't lost in the conference yet, and I don't think they will now. VIRGINIA TECH
#16 Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs: The Bulldogs lost last week, so they're fighting mad. Ryan Mallet and company are walking into a dangerous situation. I think they'll prevail, but don't be surprised to see Mississippi State pull off the upset. ARKANSAS
#17 Missouri Tigers at Iowa State Cyclones: Missouri is all but out of BCS bowl contention, but they won't give up. They expected better of themselves this season, so they want to end strongly to redeem themelves. The Cyclones are good, but Missouri is determined. MISSOURI
#18 Utah Utes at San Diego State Aztecs: Could Utah lose three games in a row? The Aztecs are feisty, but the Utes are desperate to stop this slide. Utah should prevail, but if the cause of their decline isn't found, they could lose yet again. UTAH
#21 Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Broncos: This win will put Northern Illinois into the conference title game. They should get it. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
#24 NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels: NC State is trying to keep pace with Florida State for the Atlantic division title. Add in the in-state rivalry, and this will be a brutal game. NC STATE
Troy Trojans at #25 South Carolina Gamecocks: The Gamecocks have a nice leisurely game to warm up for the SEC Championship Game. SOUTH CAROLINA
Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers: Indiana found some life last week, but so did many of the conference bottom dwellers. Somehow I don't think they can do it again. Penn State, on the other hand, is getting some play from their young players. PENN STATE
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats: I was hoping Illinois wouldn't need to beat Northwestern to stay on track for bowl eligibility, but that's how it is. While the Illini are capable of the upset, their defense has been vacant the past two weeks. If they don't get back on track, they don't stand a chance. NORTHWESTERN
Game of the Week: #23 Florida State Seminoles at Maryland Terrapins: The Terrapins have a chance to play for the conference title, but they have to beat both Florida State and NC State to get there. Maryland will fight hard for the chance to play for their first ACC title since the expansion, but I think the Seminoles are just a little bit better. FLORIDA STATE
Other Games of Interest
West Virginia Mountaineers at Louisville Cardinals: West Virginia still has an outside chance for the conference title, so they'll fight hard. It should be hard enough to succeed. WEST VIRGINIA
UTEP Miners at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Tulsa wants to continue winning to keep SMU off their back. This should be one. TULSA
Houston Cougars at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles: Southern Miss needs help to win the division. They know they can't slip up by having another loss. Houston is a tough customer, though, and could make it difficult. I'll pick the home team, but this one could really go either way. SOUTHERN MISS
USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers: USC wants to win as many games as they can, since they don't have postseason possibilities. The Beavers can be tough, but USC is determined. USC
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Warriors: The Warriors need to win every game to have even a remote chance to win the conference. If they don't, they still have their own bowl game. HAWAII
NCAA Week 11 Top 25
It's that time of year again! I'll start discussing the conference and division races. The SEC has already beaten me to it, as the teams for the SEC Championship Game are already set. South Carolina beat Florida to win the East and play for their first SEC title. Auburn remained unbeaten and clinched the West.
The Midwest housed the week's biggest upsets. Big Ten cellar dweller Minnesota won their first conference game by shocking Illinoois 38-34 in a game where Illinois' vaulted defense disappeared. Minutes later Northwestern clinched an upset over #15 Iowa. Later, Notre Dame salvaged their season by spanking Utah 28-3. It was Utah's second consecutive blowout loss, and is damaging their Top 25 ranking.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Boise State Broncos (9-0) [2]
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0) [1]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) [3]
4. Auburn Tigers (11-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [5]
6. Stanford Cardinal (9-1) [6]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1) [7]
8. Wisconsin Badgers (9-1) [12]
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-1) [9]
10. LSU Tigers (9-1) [13]
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (9-1) [10]
12. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [11]
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) [14]
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [17]
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-2) [16]
16. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-2) [19]
17. Missouri Tigers (8-2) [18]
18. Utah Utes (8-2) [8]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-3) [15]
20. Texas A&M Aggies (7-3) [NR]
21. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-2) [23]
22. Temple Owls (8-2) [22]
23. Florida State Seminoles (7-3) [NR]
24. NC State Wolfpack (7-3) [NR]
25. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) [NR]
On the Edge: USC Trojans (7-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-3), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3), Miami Hurricanes (7-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3), Hawaii Warriors (7-3), Air Force Falcons (7-4), San Diego State Aztecs (7-3), Maryland Terrapins (7-3)
Dropped: Arizona Wildcats [#20], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#21], Central Florida Golden Knights [#24], Fresno State Bulldogs [#25]
ACC Atlantic: Florida State hold a half game lead, but Maryland and NC State are both breathing down their necks
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech is unbeaten in the conference and clinches the title with a win
Big XII North: Nebraska leads and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so one more win clinches
Big XII South: If both division-leading Oklahoma State and runner-up Oklahoma win this week, this division will be decided by their rivalry game
Big East: Pitt leads, but with three games left to play, lots could happen in this conference
Big Ten: Michigan State owns their destiny. They don't play Ohio State and beat Wisconsin, so they would win the conference if they win out. A Spartan loss gives Wisconsin a chance, as they beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes need both teams to lose.
Conf USA East: UCF beat East Carolina, so they clinch the division if they win out. A loss gives East Carolina a chance. Southern Miss's only chance is a loss by UCF and two losses by East Carolina.
Conf USA West: Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over SMU, so they can win if the two teams win and lose the same number of games. SMU can still overtake them, as can Houston, although Houston's chances are slim
MAC East: Three-way tie between Temple, Ohio, and Miami of Ohio. Temple still plays them both, so the Owls control their destiny.
MAC West: Northern Illinois clinches with one more win
Mountain West: won by TCU
Pac-10: Oregon leads, and clinches with one more win
Sun Belt: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Troy and plays Arkansas State. If FIU wins two, they clinch.
WAC: If Boise State beats Nevada in two weeks, they clinch. If the Broncos lose twice and Hawaii wins out, the Warriors win. Nevada can clinch by winning out, which would include a win against Boise.
The Midwest housed the week's biggest upsets. Big Ten cellar dweller Minnesota won their first conference game by shocking Illinoois 38-34 in a game where Illinois' vaulted defense disappeared. Minutes later Northwestern clinched an upset over #15 Iowa. Later, Notre Dame salvaged their season by spanking Utah 28-3. It was Utah's second consecutive blowout loss, and is damaging their Top 25 ranking.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Boise State Broncos (9-0) [2]
2. Oregon Ducks (10-0) [1]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) [3]
4. Auburn Tigers (11-0) [4]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) [5]
6. Stanford Cardinal (9-1) [6]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1) [7]
8. Wisconsin Badgers (9-1) [12]
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-1) [9]
10. LSU Tigers (9-1) [13]
11. Nevada Wolf Pack (9-1) [10]
12. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [11]
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2) [14]
14. Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) [17]
15. Virginia Tech Hokies (8-2) [16]
16. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-2) [19]
17. Missouri Tigers (8-2) [18]
18. Utah Utes (8-2) [8]
19. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-3) [15]
20. Texas A&M Aggies (7-3) [NR]
21. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-2) [23]
22. Temple Owls (8-2) [22]
23. Florida State Seminoles (7-3) [NR]
24. NC State Wolfpack (7-3) [NR]
25. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-3) [NR]
On the Edge: USC Trojans (7-3), Arizona Wildcats (7-3), West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3), Miami Hurricanes (7-3), Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-3), Hawaii Warriors (7-3), Air Force Falcons (7-4), San Diego State Aztecs (7-3), Maryland Terrapins (7-3)
Dropped: Arizona Wildcats [#20], Mississippi State Bulldogs [#21], Central Florida Golden Knights [#24], Fresno State Bulldogs [#25]
ACC Atlantic: Florida State hold a half game lead, but Maryland and NC State are both breathing down their necks
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech is unbeaten in the conference and clinches the title with a win
Big XII North: Nebraska leads and holds the tiebreaker over Missouri, so one more win clinches
Big XII South: If both division-leading Oklahoma State and runner-up Oklahoma win this week, this division will be decided by their rivalry game
Big East: Pitt leads, but with three games left to play, lots could happen in this conference
Big Ten: Michigan State owns their destiny. They don't play Ohio State and beat Wisconsin, so they would win the conference if they win out. A Spartan loss gives Wisconsin a chance, as they beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes need both teams to lose.
Conf USA East: UCF beat East Carolina, so they clinch the division if they win out. A loss gives East Carolina a chance. Southern Miss's only chance is a loss by UCF and two losses by East Carolina.
Conf USA West: Tulsa holds the tiebreaker over SMU, so they can win if the two teams win and lose the same number of games. SMU can still overtake them, as can Houston, although Houston's chances are slim
MAC East: Three-way tie between Temple, Ohio, and Miami of Ohio. Temple still plays them both, so the Owls control their destiny.
MAC West: Northern Illinois clinches with one more win
Mountain West: won by TCU
Pac-10: Oregon leads, and clinches with one more win
Sun Belt: Florida International holds the tiebreaker over Troy and plays Arkansas State. If FIU wins two, they clinch.
WAC: If Boise State beats Nevada in two weeks, they clinch. If the Broncos lose twice and Hawaii wins out, the Warriors win. Nevada can clinch by winning out, which would include a win against Boise.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
NFL Week 10 picks
Over a busy two weeks, I get a chance to post my picks this week, and I'm just in time for the start of NFL Network's Thursday night games.
Thursday night: Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: These two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd pick Baltimore except for one thing -- the Falcons are unbeaten at home. Yes, that will have to end sometime, but I'll keep Matt Ryan and company maintaining it for now. FALCONS, 24-20
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: Carolina is having a tough year. Their record matches Dallas, although Dallas gets more attention. BUCS, 17-10
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: The Bengals have two dynamic receivers, but the T.Ocho Show isn't working out too well. The Colts have seen many of their best receivers get injured, but they keep finding more people to catch for Peyton. COLTS, 24-20
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills: The Bills will win a game sometime. They play at home, against a struggling team, so this might be the time. I'd actually pick Buffalo EXCEPT Matt Stafford returned to Detroit's lineup last week. He can lead the team past the Bills. LIONS, 24-21
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville has been fortunate. Any team with a points margin like theirs should have a worse record than 4-4. The Texans' defense will extend that margin, and push the Jags below .500. TEXANS, 27-17
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: The Vikings are just in too much turmoil for me to favor them, even if the Bears offense has been so atrocious. The special teams and defense make up for that, and should elevate them past the Vikings. BEARS, 17-13
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: The Jets defense is stifling, second only to the Steelers. For the Browns, that means they won't have any room to breathe. JETS, 20-13
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Pity the Miami fans, for their beloved Dolphins are winless at home this season. With a tough Titans squad coming to town, one revitalized with the addition of Randy Moss on the outside, I don't think that winless record will change this week. TITANS, 23-17
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Despite the woes in Dallas, their points margin is not too bad for a 1-7 team. I suppose that just makes their record even worse. Owner Jerry Jones canned coach Wade Phillips this week, promoting Jason Garrett. I don't know how much that will shake up the team. Garrett already called most of the offensive plays. We do know that he has instituted a little more discipline in the locker room, which may not sit well with some of the players. Throw in a tough Giants defense, and this doesn't look like a good week for the former "America's Team". GIANTS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: It's been a tough year for Denver. While the Chiefs have slipped from their outstanding start, Matt Cassel and company are putting up excellent numbers. Orton is leading the Broncos well, but the team is one-sided, as they can't get a running game going. That gives any decent defense to anticipate their moves, and the Chiefs have a decent defense. CHIEFS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: It's upset time! Seattle has been atrocious on the road this season, while the Cards have shown flashes of brilliance. Derek Anderson has struggled with Coach Wisenhunt's system, but the team has still scored more points than Seattle has. CARDS, 20-14
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Second upset pick. The 49ers are finding themselves, while the Rams are still not consistent. The Rams could win this game, but I actually think the bye week will hurt Bradford, as he seems to need the momentum. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have the best defense in the league. While Bill Belichick is capable of finding ways to move against that defense, I think the Steelers will be just a little too stifling for the Patriots to handle. STEELERS, 16-14
Monday Night Football: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Michael Vick is back, and he's slippery. The Redskins defense may be slightly better than the Colts, but their offense isn't as good. If Philly could beat Indy, they can beat the Redskins. EAGLES, 23-17
Thursday night: Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: These two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd pick Baltimore except for one thing -- the Falcons are unbeaten at home. Yes, that will have to end sometime, but I'll keep Matt Ryan and company maintaining it for now. FALCONS, 24-20
Sunday early games:
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs: Carolina is having a tough year. Their record matches Dallas, although Dallas gets more attention. BUCS, 17-10
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: The Bengals have two dynamic receivers, but the T.Ocho Show isn't working out too well. The Colts have seen many of their best receivers get injured, but they keep finding more people to catch for Peyton. COLTS, 24-20
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills: The Bills will win a game sometime. They play at home, against a struggling team, so this might be the time. I'd actually pick Buffalo EXCEPT Matt Stafford returned to Detroit's lineup last week. He can lead the team past the Bills. LIONS, 24-21
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville has been fortunate. Any team with a points margin like theirs should have a worse record than 4-4. The Texans' defense will extend that margin, and push the Jags below .500. TEXANS, 27-17
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: The Vikings are just in too much turmoil for me to favor them, even if the Bears offense has been so atrocious. The special teams and defense make up for that, and should elevate them past the Vikings. BEARS, 17-13
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: The Jets defense is stifling, second only to the Steelers. For the Browns, that means they won't have any room to breathe. JETS, 20-13
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Pity the Miami fans, for their beloved Dolphins are winless at home this season. With a tough Titans squad coming to town, one revitalized with the addition of Randy Moss on the outside, I don't think that winless record will change this week. TITANS, 23-17
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Despite the woes in Dallas, their points margin is not too bad for a 1-7 team. I suppose that just makes their record even worse. Owner Jerry Jones canned coach Wade Phillips this week, promoting Jason Garrett. I don't know how much that will shake up the team. Garrett already called most of the offensive plays. We do know that he has instituted a little more discipline in the locker room, which may not sit well with some of the players. Throw in a tough Giants defense, and this doesn't look like a good week for the former "America's Team". GIANTS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: It's been a tough year for Denver. While the Chiefs have slipped from their outstanding start, Matt Cassel and company are putting up excellent numbers. Orton is leading the Broncos well, but the team is one-sided, as they can't get a running game going. That gives any decent defense to anticipate their moves, and the Chiefs have a decent defense. CHIEFS, 24-20
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: It's upset time! Seattle has been atrocious on the road this season, while the Cards have shown flashes of brilliance. Derek Anderson has struggled with Coach Wisenhunt's system, but the team has still scored more points than Seattle has. CARDS, 20-14
St Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Second upset pick. The 49ers are finding themselves, while the Rams are still not consistent. The Rams could win this game, but I actually think the bye week will hurt Bradford, as he seems to need the momentum. 49ERS, 20-17
Sunday night: New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have the best defense in the league. While Bill Belichick is capable of finding ways to move against that defense, I think the Steelers will be just a little too stifling for the Patriots to handle. STEELERS, 16-14
Monday Night Football: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Michael Vick is back, and he's slippery. The Redskins defense may be slightly better than the Colts, but their offense isn't as good. If Philly could beat Indy, they can beat the Redskins. EAGLES, 23-17
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
NCAA Week 11 picks
As I type this, I'm watching Northern Illinois demolish Toledo. I had already made that pick, but because I fell behind on some work (due to a cold) and didn't get this typed in time, I won't list that one.
Thurs Nov 11
Pitt Panthers at UConn Huskies: Pitt leads the Big East, with a strong two-game lead. A victory against the struggling Huskies will not only make them bowl-eligible, but guarantees at least a share of the Big East title. PITT
East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers: East Carolina now trails Central Florida in the East division. If they want a chance to play in the conference championship game, they should win as many as they can. UAB can be tricky, but I think the Pirates should conquer this home territory. EAST CAROLINA
Fri Nov 12
#2 Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals: Idaho shouldn't give the Broncos any trouble, keeping the team unbeaten. BOISE STATE
Top 25
#1 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears: Don't be so quick to write off Cal; they can be a tough opponent, especially at home! Oregon has the best offense in the FBS, which gives them the edge. However, this game isn't as certain as Boise's. OREGON
San Diego State Aztecs at #3 TCU Horned Frogs: The Frogs beat Utah to put themselves into excellent BCS busting position. I don't think anyone is going to knock them off that perch. TCU
Georgia Bulldogs at #4 Auburn Tigers: Auburn might be looking ahead to Alabama, but after the Tide's 2nd loss last week, they might not be so worried. AUBURN
Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Lions young players are finally coming on, but getting past Ohio State will require more than they have. OHIO STATE
#6 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils: Stanford is hoping for an Oregon upset so they have a chance to win the Pac-10. Alternatively, if Oregon doesn't lose, Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl, which would be fine with them. STANFORD
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns: Do you want to know how far Texas has fallen? Not only am I picking the Cowboys, I'm not giving Texas much of a chance for an upset. OKLAHOMA STATE
#8 Utah Utes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: When this game was scheduled, I'm sure Utah thought it would improve their BCS standing. Given the Irish's collapse (Army has a better record!), I don't think it will. UTAH
Kansas Jayhawks at #9 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is on track to win the North division, especially with a win over Missouri to help a tiebreaker. The rest of the conference wants to prevent Nebraska claiming the title, as they'd that that with them to the Big Ten. Oklahoma State certainly doesn't want Nebraska to win the North, as the Cowboys are on track to win the South. That would set up a rematch of a contest earlier this season, where Nebraska embarrassed Oklahoma State. Actually, maybe the Cowboys want the chance for revenge. NEBRASKA
#10 Nevada Wolf Pack at #25 Fresno State Bulldogs: Nevada is vying with Hawaii and Boise State for the WAC title. They have it tough, as they've already lost to Hawaii and still face Boise after this. A win here helps them, but they still need help. This win is the start. NEVADA
Indiana Hoosiers at #12 Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin is one of four teams competing for the conference title. They hve tiebreaker advantages over some, but not all, so they want to win out to have a chance. This is a good start. WISCONSIN
Louisiana-Monroe Indians at #13 LSU Tigers: This in-state rivalry will end the way we'd expect, with a Tigers win. LSU
#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #14 Alabama Crimson Tide: Bama has lost twice in the conference. They know they can't afford another one. The Bulldogs are a strong team this season, but are they strong enough to beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa? I don't think so, but they'll play it close. ALABAMA
#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: Iowa's another of those four teams vying for the title, and they have it harder, as they are the only team who had a non-conference loss. That puts them behind the other three, so they need to win outright. That seems unlikely, but Iowa is still pressing hard. They'll give Northwestern a hard time, and the Wildcats' recent injury woes make them susceptible. IOWA
#16 Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina has pulled off a couple of upsets this season. Do they have one more in their system? I don't think so. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #17 Oklahoma Sooners: Now here is a possible upset. While I'll pick the Oklahoma, they've lost the dominance they demonstrated earlier in the season. Just the situation Tech might exploit. OKLAHOMA
Kansas State Wildcats at #18 Missouri Tigers: Missouri has lost two in a row. Are they headed in the wrong direction? K-State is the toughest opponent that reamins on their schedule, but they can be tough. I think Missouri will get themselves back on track, but watch our for the Wildcats! MISSOURI
UTEP Miners at #19 Arkansas Razorbacks: Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks are roaring back after a bumpy mid-season schedule. They are two games back from division-leading Auburn, the Razorbacks stand a good chance for a prominent bowl game. ARKANSAS
USC Trojans at #20 Arizona Wildcats: The Trojans may be having an "off" year, but they are still dangerous. They gave Oregon three tough quarters. If they do the same to Arizona, the Wildcats may end up losing. USC has something to prove since they let Oregon take over the fourth quarter, so I expect them to hassle Arizona. USC
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #24 Central Florida Golden Knights: It's the battle of the Gold! Southern Miss is doing well, but Central Florida leads the division, and haven't allowed themselves to lose to a Conference USA opponent. They have two easy opponents after this, so they know they basically clinch the division with a win here. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Big Ten:
Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers: The Wolverines salvaged their sagging Big Ten season with the incredible four overtime win against Illinois last week. Can they continue the streak against Purdue? I think so. MICHIGAN
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Speaking of my Illini, they proved to have more stamina than I would have expected, and ended up being just a two-point conversion short of keeping that game going. They won't need overtime to spank the hapless Gophers. ILLINOIS
Game of the Week: South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators: Both teams are former Top 25 teams, and they both lead the sagging SEC East. This game will likely determine the East division winner, especially since Georgia will likely be knocked off by Auburn. When if comes to playing for a championship, even if it's a spot for the SEC title, never bet against Florida. South Carolina is dangerous enough to win this game, but I like Florida's determination. FLORIDA
Other Games of Interest:
Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has a losing Big East record, if you can believe that. They need to get back on track in the conference race, and beating up on the team in last place should be a good start. WEST VIRGINIA
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Speaking of conference cellar-dwellers, that's the Demon Deacons in the ACC. Nice easy win for NC State. NC STATE
Texas A&M Aggies at Baylor Bears: Baylor has dropped from the Top 25, and they want to get back. The problem is the Aggies are only a half game back and improving. The Bears benefited from a favorable schedule and the collapse of traditional powers Texas and Texas Tech. Baylor has a real challenge on their hands here. They might win this one, but the Aggies will make it extremely tough. BAYLOR
Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles: Florida State leads the Atlantic division, but only by half a game. They know each game is crucial. That includes this one. FLORIDA STATE
Thurs Nov 11
Pitt Panthers at UConn Huskies: Pitt leads the Big East, with a strong two-game lead. A victory against the struggling Huskies will not only make them bowl-eligible, but guarantees at least a share of the Big East title. PITT
East Carolina Pirates at UAB Blazers: East Carolina now trails Central Florida in the East division. If they want a chance to play in the conference championship game, they should win as many as they can. UAB can be tricky, but I think the Pirates should conquer this home territory. EAST CAROLINA
Fri Nov 12
#2 Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals: Idaho shouldn't give the Broncos any trouble, keeping the team unbeaten. BOISE STATE
Top 25
#1 Oregon Ducks at Cal Golden Bears: Don't be so quick to write off Cal; they can be a tough opponent, especially at home! Oregon has the best offense in the FBS, which gives them the edge. However, this game isn't as certain as Boise's. OREGON
San Diego State Aztecs at #3 TCU Horned Frogs: The Frogs beat Utah to put themselves into excellent BCS busting position. I don't think anyone is going to knock them off that perch. TCU
Georgia Bulldogs at #4 Auburn Tigers: Auburn might be looking ahead to Alabama, but after the Tide's 2nd loss last week, they might not be so worried. AUBURN
Penn State Nittany Lions at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes: The Lions young players are finally coming on, but getting past Ohio State will require more than they have. OHIO STATE
#6 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils: Stanford is hoping for an Oregon upset so they have a chance to win the Pac-10. Alternatively, if Oregon doesn't lose, Stanford goes to the Rose Bowl, which would be fine with them. STANFORD
#7 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns: Do you want to know how far Texas has fallen? Not only am I picking the Cowboys, I'm not giving Texas much of a chance for an upset. OKLAHOMA STATE
#8 Utah Utes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish: When this game was scheduled, I'm sure Utah thought it would improve their BCS standing. Given the Irish's collapse (Army has a better record!), I don't think it will. UTAH
Kansas Jayhawks at #9 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is on track to win the North division, especially with a win over Missouri to help a tiebreaker. The rest of the conference wants to prevent Nebraska claiming the title, as they'd that that with them to the Big Ten. Oklahoma State certainly doesn't want Nebraska to win the North, as the Cowboys are on track to win the South. That would set up a rematch of a contest earlier this season, where Nebraska embarrassed Oklahoma State. Actually, maybe the Cowboys want the chance for revenge. NEBRASKA
#10 Nevada Wolf Pack at #25 Fresno State Bulldogs: Nevada is vying with Hawaii and Boise State for the WAC title. They have it tough, as they've already lost to Hawaii and still face Boise after this. A win here helps them, but they still need help. This win is the start. NEVADA
Indiana Hoosiers at #12 Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin is one of four teams competing for the conference title. They hve tiebreaker advantages over some, but not all, so they want to win out to have a chance. This is a good start. WISCONSIN
Louisiana-Monroe Indians at #13 LSU Tigers: This in-state rivalry will end the way we'd expect, with a Tigers win. LSU
#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #14 Alabama Crimson Tide: Bama has lost twice in the conference. They know they can't afford another one. The Bulldogs are a strong team this season, but are they strong enough to beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa? I don't think so, but they'll play it close. ALABAMA
#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats: Iowa's another of those four teams vying for the title, and they have it harder, as they are the only team who had a non-conference loss. That puts them behind the other three, so they need to win outright. That seems unlikely, but Iowa is still pressing hard. They'll give Northwestern a hard time, and the Wildcats' recent injury woes make them susceptible. IOWA
#16 Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina has pulled off a couple of upsets this season. Do they have one more in their system? I don't think so. VIRGINIA TECH
Texas Tech Red Raiders at #17 Oklahoma Sooners: Now here is a possible upset. While I'll pick the Oklahoma, they've lost the dominance they demonstrated earlier in the season. Just the situation Tech might exploit. OKLAHOMA
Kansas State Wildcats at #18 Missouri Tigers: Missouri has lost two in a row. Are they headed in the wrong direction? K-State is the toughest opponent that reamins on their schedule, but they can be tough. I think Missouri will get themselves back on track, but watch our for the Wildcats! MISSOURI
UTEP Miners at #19 Arkansas Razorbacks: Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks are roaring back after a bumpy mid-season schedule. They are two games back from division-leading Auburn, the Razorbacks stand a good chance for a prominent bowl game. ARKANSAS
USC Trojans at #20 Arizona Wildcats: The Trojans may be having an "off" year, but they are still dangerous. They gave Oregon three tough quarters. If they do the same to Arizona, the Wildcats may end up losing. USC has something to prove since they let Oregon take over the fourth quarter, so I expect them to hassle Arizona. USC
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at #24 Central Florida Golden Knights: It's the battle of the Gold! Southern Miss is doing well, but Central Florida leads the division, and haven't allowed themselves to lose to a Conference USA opponent. They have two easy opponents after this, so they know they basically clinch the division with a win here. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Big Ten:
Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers: The Wolverines salvaged their sagging Big Ten season with the incredible four overtime win against Illinois last week. Can they continue the streak against Purdue? I think so. MICHIGAN
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini: Speaking of my Illini, they proved to have more stamina than I would have expected, and ended up being just a two-point conversion short of keeping that game going. They won't need overtime to spank the hapless Gophers. ILLINOIS
Game of the Week: South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida Gators: Both teams are former Top 25 teams, and they both lead the sagging SEC East. This game will likely determine the East division winner, especially since Georgia will likely be knocked off by Auburn. When if comes to playing for a championship, even if it's a spot for the SEC title, never bet against Florida. South Carolina is dangerous enough to win this game, but I like Florida's determination. FLORIDA
Other Games of Interest:
Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers: West Virginia has a losing Big East record, if you can believe that. They need to get back on track in the conference race, and beating up on the team in last place should be a good start. WEST VIRGINIA
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack: Speaking of conference cellar-dwellers, that's the Demon Deacons in the ACC. Nice easy win for NC State. NC STATE
Texas A&M Aggies at Baylor Bears: Baylor has dropped from the Top 25, and they want to get back. The problem is the Aggies are only a half game back and improving. The Bears benefited from a favorable schedule and the collapse of traditional powers Texas and Texas Tech. Baylor has a real challenge on their hands here. They might win this one, but the Aggies will make it extremely tough. BAYLOR
Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles: Florida State leads the Atlantic division, but only by half a game. They know each game is crucial. That includes this one. FLORIDA STATE
Sunday, November 7, 2010
NCAA Week 10 Top 25
Whoa! Upsets were common, although not too many among the Top 25. Lazy Louisville stunned Syracuse, basically giving Pittsburgh a strong lead in the Big East. Independent Navy knocked off East Carolina, putting the Pirates' bowl hopes in jeopardy while boosting their own.
The Top 25 teams suffered some upsets. North Carolina beat Florida State, knocking them out of the Top 25, leaving Virginia Tech as the only ACC team (and ironically, only current or former Big East team) in the Top 25. Oklahoma was toppled by Texas A&M. The Sooners remain in the Top 25, but drop dramatically. The Aggies reach the cusp, setting themselves up for a potential Top 25 run.
The last upset wasn't an upset in the winning team, but in the extremely large margin of victory. The contest between TCU and Utah was a contest of Number 3 v Number 4, so it was anyone's game to win. However, I could not have predicted a complete blowout! TCU proved themselves the strongest team in the Mountain West, just as Boise State proved themselves superior in the WAC by demolishing Hawaii. Now both teams lie on the edge of the top. If Oregon falters, and Auburn loses to Alabama or loses the SEC Championship, then the BCS Bowl Championship could be played between two teams from non-BCS conferences.
This week's rank [Last week's position]
1. Oregon Ducks (9-0) [1]
2. Boise State Broncos (8-0) [2]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) [4]
4. Auburn Tigers (10-0) [5]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [6]
6. Stanford Cardinal (8-1) [8]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) [9]
8. Utah Utes (8-1) [3]
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [11]
10. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-1) [12]
11. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [15]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (8-1) [14]
13. LSU Tigers (8-1) [18]
14. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) [7]
15. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2) [19]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-2) [17]
17. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [10]
18. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [13]
19. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-2) [NR]
20. Arizona Wildcats (7-2) [16]
21. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) [23]
22. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-2) [24]
23. Temple Owls (7-2) [25]
24. Central Florida Golden Knights (7-2) [NR]
25. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-2) [NR]
On the Edge: Baylor Bears (7-3), Florida Gators (6-3), Florida State Seminoles (6-3), Texas A&M Aggies (6-3), USC Trojans (6-3), Hawaii Warriors (7-3), NC State Wolfpack (6-3), West Virginia Mountaineers (5-3)
Dropped: Florida State Seminoles [#20], South Carolina Gamecocks [#21], Baylor Bears [#22]
The Top 25 teams suffered some upsets. North Carolina beat Florida State, knocking them out of the Top 25, leaving Virginia Tech as the only ACC team (and ironically, only current or former Big East team) in the Top 25. Oklahoma was toppled by Texas A&M. The Sooners remain in the Top 25, but drop dramatically. The Aggies reach the cusp, setting themselves up for a potential Top 25 run.
The last upset wasn't an upset in the winning team, but in the extremely large margin of victory. The contest between TCU and Utah was a contest of Number 3 v Number 4, so it was anyone's game to win. However, I could not have predicted a complete blowout! TCU proved themselves the strongest team in the Mountain West, just as Boise State proved themselves superior in the WAC by demolishing Hawaii. Now both teams lie on the edge of the top. If Oregon falters, and Auburn loses to Alabama or loses the SEC Championship, then the BCS Bowl Championship could be played between two teams from non-BCS conferences.
This week's rank [Last week's position]
1. Oregon Ducks (9-0) [1]
2. Boise State Broncos (8-0) [2]
3. TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) [4]
4. Auburn Tigers (10-0) [5]
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) [6]
6. Stanford Cardinal (8-1) [8]
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-1) [9]
8. Utah Utes (8-1) [3]
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-1) [11]
10. Nevada Wolf Pack (8-1) [12]
11. Michigan State Spartans (9-1) [15]
12. Wisconsin Badgers (8-1) [14]
13. LSU Tigers (8-1) [18]
14. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) [7]
15. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2) [19]
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-2) [17]
17. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) [10]
18. Missouri Tigers (7-2) [13]
19. Arkansas Razorbacks (7-2) [NR]
20. Arizona Wildcats (7-2) [16]
21. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-2) [23]
22. Northern Illinois Huskies (7-2) [24]
23. Temple Owls (7-2) [25]
24. Central Florida Golden Knights (7-2) [NR]
25. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-2) [NR]
On the Edge: Baylor Bears (7-3), Florida Gators (6-3), Florida State Seminoles (6-3), Texas A&M Aggies (6-3), USC Trojans (6-3), Hawaii Warriors (7-3), NC State Wolfpack (6-3), West Virginia Mountaineers (5-3)
Dropped: Florida State Seminoles [#20], South Carolina Gamecocks [#21], Baylor Bears [#22]
Monday, November 1, 2010
NCAA Week 10 picks
Conference races are starting to tighten up, and games will start to get very important. We have some doozies this week, including the Game of the Week.
Wed Nov 3
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls: This one could go either way, but I like the way the Knights have been playing recently. RUTGERS
Thurs Nov 4
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #17 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies have a short week to prepare, but they know the Yellow Jackets farily well. In most seasons, I'd figure the extra week awarded Georgia Tech would give them an edge, but the Jackets have been folding in crucial games this season. VIRGINIA TECH
Fri Nov 5
Central Florida Golden Knights at Houston Cougars: Another contest of evenly-matched opponents, the Cougars had a bye week last week and UCF didn't. However, the Golden Knights played one of their best games last week, and I think they'll extend that into this game. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Top 25
Washington Huskies at #1 Oregon Ducks: The Ducks faced their greatest challenge in Los Angeles last week against the Trojans. Somehow, I don't think Jake Locker and the Huskies will be a major obstacle. ORGEON
Hawaii Warriors at #2 Boise State Broncos: This is probably the last difficult team the Broncos will face this season, at least until their bowl game. Although Hawaii is having a great season, the Broncos have been completely dominating their opponents. This may be their smallest margin of victory all season, but they'll still win. BOISE STATE
Chattanooga Mocs at Auburn Tigers: This is the final FCS v FBS matchup of the season, and should prove no challenge for Auburn. AUBURN
#7 Alabama Crimson Tide at #18 LSU Tigers: LSU isn't quite up to snuff this season, but Alabama can use this as a nice warmup for the Iron Bowl, as LSU and Auburn have similar defenses. ALABAMA
#16 Arizona Wildcats at #8 Stanford Cardinal: Arizona is capable of upsetting the Cardinal, but Jim Harbaugh has this team playing tough and mostly error-free. In recent years, Stanford has come apart in one game, losing it through undisciplined errors. I don't think that'll happen this year. STANFORD
#22 Baylor Bears at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Baylor is having an outstanding season, but Oklahoma State's offense is tops in the conference. I don't think the Bears defense can stop them, and I don't think the Bears offense can keep pace. OKLAHOMA STATE
#10 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies defense is tough, but not tough enough to slow the mighty Sooners offense. OKLAHOMA
#11 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones have surprised some good teams this season, but Nebraska just toppled Missouri. Unless they get too cocky from that victory, they should hold off the Cyclones. NEBRASKA
#12 Nevada Wolf Pack at Idaho Vandals: Idaho is doing better than usual, but Nevada is a hot team this year. NEVADA
#13 Missouri Tigers at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Poor timing for the Raiders. Missouri will be determined to make up for last week. Tech's defense isn't strong this year, and the Tigers will want to redeem themselves after last week's loss. This might be one of their best offensive performances. MISSOURI
#14 Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue avoided two consecutive shutouts, but the team is struggling. The Badgers had an extra week, although they didn't need it to prepare for Purdue. WISCONSIN
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #15 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans will want to beat up on someone to relieve the frustration of last week's loss to Iowa. That opponent will be the hapless Gophers. MICHIGAN STATE
#19 Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: Interesting how the ranked teams in the Big Ten who play this week (Ohio State has a bye) get to play the three worst teams in the conference. Iowa should coast through this game, especially after dominating the Spartans last week. IOWA
North Carolina Tar Heels at #20 Florida State Seminoles: The Heels nearly lost to FCS William & Mary, so the Seminoles should have no trouble. FLORIDA STATE
Arkansas Razorbacks at #21 South Carolina Gamecocks: If anyone can stretch South Carolina's defense, it will be Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks. If the Razorbacks can avoid giving up the ball to the Gamecocks, they can upset Carolina. The Gamecocks are good at forcing turnovers, though, so I'll make the safe pick. SOUTH CAROLINA
#25 Temple Owls at Kent State Golden Flashes: It is an uncomfortable trend that teams unused to the Top 25 fall the week after they debut. Although that trend would put Temple in jeopardy, I don't think Kent State is strong enough to topple the Owls. TEMPLE
Game of the Week: #4 TCU Horned Frogs at #3 Utah Utes: For all practical purposes, this is the Mountain West championship game. The winner definitely has the inside track to win out and claim the conference crown, and a likely unbeaten season and possible bid for a BCS bowl. TCU gained that right last year, but Utah is more used to it. UTAH
Other games of interest:
NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers: Clemson started strong, but they've faltered in recent weeks. That gives NC State the chance to chase Florida State for the Atlantic division title. NC STATE
Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orangemen: The Orangemen are having a great year, but they are always capable of slipping up. This is a home game, though, so I think they'll want to do well for their fellow students. SYRACUSE
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores: It may not be a typically strong year for Florida, but they're still capable of pestering the lesser SEC competition. FLORIDA
Fresno State Bulldogs at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: This battle of the bulldogs will go to Fresno, who took an extra week off to prepare. FRESNO STATE
Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans: USC couldn't hold back Oregon in the fourth quarter, but they learned a lot about themselves in that game. Expect Lane Kiffin to use that knowledge to move this club forward. USC
Wed Nov 3
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at South Florida Bulls: This one could go either way, but I like the way the Knights have been playing recently. RUTGERS
Thurs Nov 4
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at #17 Virginia Tech Hokies: The Hokies have a short week to prepare, but they know the Yellow Jackets farily well. In most seasons, I'd figure the extra week awarded Georgia Tech would give them an edge, but the Jackets have been folding in crucial games this season. VIRGINIA TECH
Fri Nov 5
Central Florida Golden Knights at Houston Cougars: Another contest of evenly-matched opponents, the Cougars had a bye week last week and UCF didn't. However, the Golden Knights played one of their best games last week, and I think they'll extend that into this game. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Top 25
Washington Huskies at #1 Oregon Ducks: The Ducks faced their greatest challenge in Los Angeles last week against the Trojans. Somehow, I don't think Jake Locker and the Huskies will be a major obstacle. ORGEON
Hawaii Warriors at #2 Boise State Broncos: This is probably the last difficult team the Broncos will face this season, at least until their bowl game. Although Hawaii is having a great season, the Broncos have been completely dominating their opponents. This may be their smallest margin of victory all season, but they'll still win. BOISE STATE
Chattanooga Mocs at Auburn Tigers: This is the final FCS v FBS matchup of the season, and should prove no challenge for Auburn. AUBURN
#7 Alabama Crimson Tide at #18 LSU Tigers: LSU isn't quite up to snuff this season, but Alabama can use this as a nice warmup for the Iron Bowl, as LSU and Auburn have similar defenses. ALABAMA
#16 Arizona Wildcats at #8 Stanford Cardinal: Arizona is capable of upsetting the Cardinal, but Jim Harbaugh has this team playing tough and mostly error-free. In recent years, Stanford has come apart in one game, losing it through undisciplined errors. I don't think that'll happen this year. STANFORD
#22 Baylor Bears at #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys: Baylor is having an outstanding season, but Oklahoma State's offense is tops in the conference. I don't think the Bears defense can stop them, and I don't think the Bears offense can keep pace. OKLAHOMA STATE
#10 Oklahoma Sooners at Texas A&M Aggies: The Aggies defense is tough, but not tough enough to slow the mighty Sooners offense. OKLAHOMA
#11 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones have surprised some good teams this season, but Nebraska just toppled Missouri. Unless they get too cocky from that victory, they should hold off the Cyclones. NEBRASKA
#12 Nevada Wolf Pack at Idaho Vandals: Idaho is doing better than usual, but Nevada is a hot team this year. NEVADA
#13 Missouri Tigers at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Poor timing for the Raiders. Missouri will be determined to make up for last week. Tech's defense isn't strong this year, and the Tigers will want to redeem themselves after last week's loss. This might be one of their best offensive performances. MISSOURI
#14 Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue avoided two consecutive shutouts, but the team is struggling. The Badgers had an extra week, although they didn't need it to prepare for Purdue. WISCONSIN
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #15 Michigan State Spartans: The Spartans will want to beat up on someone to relieve the frustration of last week's loss to Iowa. That opponent will be the hapless Gophers. MICHIGAN STATE
#19 Iowa Hawkeyes at Indiana Hoosiers: Interesting how the ranked teams in the Big Ten who play this week (Ohio State has a bye) get to play the three worst teams in the conference. Iowa should coast through this game, especially after dominating the Spartans last week. IOWA
North Carolina Tar Heels at #20 Florida State Seminoles: The Heels nearly lost to FCS William & Mary, so the Seminoles should have no trouble. FLORIDA STATE
Arkansas Razorbacks at #21 South Carolina Gamecocks: If anyone can stretch South Carolina's defense, it will be Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks. If the Razorbacks can avoid giving up the ball to the Gamecocks, they can upset Carolina. The Gamecocks are good at forcing turnovers, though, so I'll make the safe pick. SOUTH CAROLINA
#25 Temple Owls at Kent State Golden Flashes: It is an uncomfortable trend that teams unused to the Top 25 fall the week after they debut. Although that trend would put Temple in jeopardy, I don't think Kent State is strong enough to topple the Owls. TEMPLE
Game of the Week: #4 TCU Horned Frogs at #3 Utah Utes: For all practical purposes, this is the Mountain West championship game. The winner definitely has the inside track to win out and claim the conference crown, and a likely unbeaten season and possible bid for a BCS bowl. TCU gained that right last year, but Utah is more used to it. UTAH
Other games of interest:
NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers: Clemson started strong, but they've faltered in recent weeks. That gives NC State the chance to chase Florida State for the Atlantic division title. NC STATE
Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orangemen: The Orangemen are having a great year, but they are always capable of slipping up. This is a home game, though, so I think they'll want to do well for their fellow students. SYRACUSE
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores: It may not be a typically strong year for Florida, but they're still capable of pestering the lesser SEC competition. FLORIDA
Fresno State Bulldogs at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: This battle of the bulldogs will go to Fresno, who took an extra week off to prepare. FRESNO STATE
Arizona State Sun Devils at USC Trojans: USC couldn't hold back Oregon in the fourth quarter, but they learned a lot about themselves in that game. Expect Lane Kiffin to use that knowledge to move this club forward. USC
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