NFL 2017 Week 4 picks

Interesting series of games last week.  For the most part, the home teams were winning, no matter which team had the better record.  I hope that doesn't happen this week, as I'm picking many visiting teams.

Thurs Sept 28
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers:  Ironically, both the Bears and Packers come off overtime wins last week.  The Bears gave up a 17 point lead on the Steelers, while the Pack had to come from behind.  Somehow, I don't think we'll get overtime this week.  Normally this would be an easy win for the Packers, but they have suffered some crucial injuries on their offensive line. The Bears defense doesn't rush much, but they'll certainly take advantage of the depleted Packers' line.  The Pack should still win, though, because they can counter the Bears greatest offensive strength - the running game.  The Pack have a decent defensive line, which will make it hard to accumulate excessive running yards.  Forcing Glennon to throw will be the key to a Packers victory.  PACKERS

Sun Oct 1 - London game
New Orleans Saints v Miami Dolphins:  Back to London for the second week in a row.  Jay Cutler had a great game last week, but he's too inconsistent to count on that.  The Saints' offense hasn't quite looked like themselves recently, but this game might just be the spark that they need.  SAINTS

Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are flying this season.  Apparently the fourth quarter shocker administered by the Patriots in the Super Bowl has convinced them that no lead is safe, and to keep battling to the final gun.  That attitude will wear down teams like Buffalo, who are not used to fighting hard for the full four quarters.  FALCONS

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots:  The Patriots have bounced back well from their opening week stunner.  They are playing like a team with something to prove, to silence the naysayers who questioned the Patriots after that loss.  Carolina comes to town in the midst of that firestorm, and they will come out burned.  While this will likely be a close game, I foresee New England pulling it out.  PATRIOTS

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns:  Now I begin a string of visiting team picks.  Neither of these teams has been impressive so far this season, but DeShone Kiser has not developed as quickly as the Browns hoped.  Andy Dalton is a known quality.  He can get rattled, but I don't think the Browns defense is quite capable of that.  BENGALS

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings:  This match could really go either way.  Even without Sam Bradford the Vikings looked good last week.  Close games like this I usually favor the home team, but not this time.  Detroit nearly won last week, and they're still peeved that they let that one get away.  I expect them to play extra hard to ensure a win this week.  LIONS

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets:  I don't care that the Jets won last week, they still can't be counted on to be consistently good.  Surprisingly, the Jags have shown that this season.  QB Blake Bortles has been playing better than he looked in preseason, and he is getting great play from his line and his receivers.  The defense is stiff, too, which will make it a hard day for the Jets offense.  JAGUARS

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys:  I have a student who won't be pleased with me, but I have to give the Rams the edge.  The Cowboys offense has not been as dynamic as they were last season, and the Rams have a very stiff defense.  Jared Goff and the Rams offense isn't bad, either.  More importantly, the Rams are playing very error-free football, something the Cowboys can't claim.  Watch for the upset here.  RAMS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  It's always a battle when these two get together.  Expect both defenses to be tight and tough.  The Steelers offense, when it's on track like they were in the second half last week, can be great.  They can get off-track, though, but against a divisional opponent like Baltimore, they should remain intentional.  STEELERS in a close one

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans:  The Texans have just withered this season!  After preseason, I would have picked the Texans quickly to win this game, but I have to go the other way.  Houston is struggling and they can't seem to figure out what's wrong.  Mariota has the Titans offense humming, and the defense, although not composed of the talent of the Texans, nevertheless does an excellent job.  TITANS

Sunday late games
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Bucs:  The Giants had a good game last week.  Despite a loss, they stayed within range of the Eagles.  I don't think they'll do that this week.  The Bucs defense will frustrate the Giants offense, something they suffered in the first two weeks.  On the other side of the ball, improvements in Jameis Winston and new support players has made the Bucs offense fun to watch, including on highlight reels.  BUCS

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos:  These two teams are fairly evenly matched.  The biggest advantage might be the stadium.  Opponents find it hard to play well in the altitude at Mile High Stadium.  Even those the Raiders go every year, I think the stadium advantage will be enough to allow Denver to squeak past Oakland in a very close game.  BRONCOS

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers:  The Chargers have looked poor this season.  The Eagles defense will give the Chargers some chances to score, but the Eagles offense is better - much better.  EAGLES

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: The Brian Hoyer era in San Francisco has been bumpy. It is not completely Hoyer's fault (some of those guys really need to learn how to catch a ball!), the 49ers offense is faltering.  Since the defense isn't reliable to produce turnovers, it leads to one-sided games.  CARDINALS

Sunday night
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks have not been playing well this season, but the Colts have been downright abysmal.  Obviously the absence of Andrew Luck under center has something to do with it, but the defense has not stiffened to help support Jacoby Brisset's learning curve.  Expect the Seahawks defense to confuse and attack Brisset all game.  SEA HAWKS

Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have been on fire this season!  Alex Smith is putting up career numbers, and the defense has been extremely tight.  It would require a very talented and high performing team to beat them, and that is not how we would describe Washington right now.  CHIEFS

NCAA Week 5 picks

With no hurricanes threatening the southeast coast, we can finally enjoy a weekend full of games.  Well, we'll enjoy them if our favorite teams win.  If we have as many upsets and near misses as last week, some people may not be enjoying this weekend as much as others.

Thurs Sept 28
#19 Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones: Texas has had a nice break, now it's time to see if they are truly back or if they had one dynamic game.  I think they'll get past the Cyclones, but Iowa State will likely play them tough at home.  This will be a close game that will put a scare into Tom Herman.  TEXAS

Fri Sept 29
Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils:  Duke is a strong team that most national analysts are overlooking because they are not a traditional powerhouse.  Miami just has not been impressive, not even against their FCS opponent.  I like Duke to surprise here.  DUKE

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Nebraska's offense finally showed some life last week, but was that only because they were playing Rutgers?  Illinois' defense didn't look so good against South Florida, but their offense is pretty good this season.  Even if the Illini defense doesn't perk up, can Nebraska's tepid offense match scores with the Illini?  I'm thinking not.  ILLINOIS

#11 USC Trojans at #17 Washington State Cougars:  This may be the second most interesting match-up of the weekend, and we get it late night (10:45PM East Coast time).  I don't think I'll be able to stay awake for all of it, as exciting as USC can be in the second half.  Washington State will likely take the early lead, but can they hold back another thrilling USC comeback?  The Trojans have been masters at that this season, but something tells me the home crowd touch, as well as some great special teams play by the Cougars, will allow them to barely squeak by.  WASHINGTON STATE in the upset

Sat Sept 30
Ole Miss Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  After what we saw against Vanderbilt last week, can any SEC team stop the Tide?  Given that the SEC seems a bit down this season, I don't think so.  ALABAMA

#2 Clemson Tigers at #8 Virginia Tech Hokies:  And here's probably the MOST interesting matchup of the weekend!  Clemson's defense is probably the toughest in the FBS, and they come roaring into the home of the Hokies' high-powered offense.  This clash of powers will make for a great game.  Usually the defense wins these "high-powered offense v stingy defense" battles, and I'll pick it that way, but the Hokies could pull off the upset.  CLEMSON

Indiana Hoosiers at #4 Penn State Nittany Lions:  You have to pity Indiana.  They have a great team, and yet their first two conference opponents are two of the toughest defensive powers in the conference (Ohio State in Week One and Penn State this week). And in two weeks, their third Big Ten opponent is Michigan, owners of perhaps the defense in the conference this year. The Hoosiers definitely deserve better than the 0-3 conference record they will start with.  PENN STATE

Northwestern Wildcats at #5 Wisconsin Badgers:  While you can never precisely predict the inconsistent Wildcats, Wisconsin's Camp Randall Stadium is a very favorable place for the Badgers, who rarely lose at home.  WISCONSIN

#7 Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers:  The Beavers usually upset at least one ranked team at home each season.  Maybe it'll happen later this season, as Washington seems to have too much firepower to be stopped.  Relatively ignored for the Heisman race, Jake Browning has been doing an amazing job recently.  Perhaps the media snub has inspired him, but he is playing better than last year.  WASHINGTON

#10 Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers: After what we saw last week, it's clear that Georgia is the top team in the SEC East.  This should be a fairly easy win.  GEORGIA

Miami Ohio Redhawks at #12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: This one will be over by halftime, just like the Irish game was last week.  NOTRE DAME

#13 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Another easy win for the Buckeyes.  They played second string for most of the second half last week, and that will likely happen again.  OHIO STATE

#14 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders: Could the Cowboys lose two in a row?  Tech is inconsistent, but they can be very powerful when they choose to, and they might choose this game to excel.  I'll pick the Cowboys, because it's hard to count on Tech, but watch for a possible upset. OKLAHOMA STATE

Memphis Tigers at #15 UCF Golden Knights: A possible preview of the American Athletic Championship game?  Perhaps, although UCF (or someone) would need to get past South Florida.  The winner of this game certainly gets the inside track.  After last week, I have to think UCF has the better chance, but Memphis should keep it close.  UCF

#16 South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates: And those conference leading Bulls get an easy game, especially since the Pirates haven't won a home game yet this season.  Keep searching, guys. SOUTH FLORIDA

#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #18 Auburn Tigers: The Bulldogs want a chance to redeem themselves after last week's rather embarrassing loss, but I don't think the Tiger defense will give them that chance.  If the Bulldogs can make good halftime adjustments, though, they might get enough offensive push to win in the fourth quarter.  AUBURN

#22 Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Navy gets an easy game, as Tulsa is struggling badly.  NAVY

Maryland Terrapins at #24 Minnesota Golden Gophers:  A collapse by Maryland last week allowed Minnesota to jump into the Top 25 during a bye week.  Now the Gophers get to prove that they deserve the spot.  Maryland's offense should reappear, although they may be slower due to some key injuries.  Just the advantage the Gophers will exploit.  MINNESOTA

#25 Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans:  Despite an extra week of practice, the Spartans collapsed against Notre Dame.  Iowa has a good team this year, and if the Spartans can't regain their defensive dominance, they'll lose again.  IOWA

Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators:  The Commodores REALLY need a good game to help remove the stain of a 59-0 shellacking at the hands of Alabama.  They should score some points in this game, but the Gators defense will make it tough.  FLORIDA

NCAA Week 4 in review

There were some upsets and near upsets among the Top 25 and very-close-to-Top 25 teams.  It caused some shakeup in the rankings.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [1]
2. Clemson Tigers (4-0) [3]
3. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [2]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0) [4]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) [5]
6. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [7]
7. Washington Huskies (4-0) [8]
8. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-0) [13]
9. TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) [17]
10. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) [14]
11. USC Trojans (4-0) [11]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) [12]
13. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) [16]
14. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) [6]
15. UCF Golden Knights (2-0) [15]
16. South Florida Bulls (4-0) [20]
17. Washington State Cougars (4-0) [21]
18. Auburn Tigers (3-1) [18]
19. Texas Longhorns (1-2) [19]
20. Utah Utes (4-0) [23]
21. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1) [10]
22. Navy Midshipmen (3-0) [22]
23. Louisville Cardinals (3-1) [NR]
24. Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0) [NR]
25. Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) [NR]

Dropped off: Michigan State Spartans [#9], UCLA Bruins [#24], Maryland Terrapins [#25]
On the Edge: West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1), Miami Hurricanes (2-0), Texas A&M Aggies (3-1), Memphis Tigers (3-0), Stanford Cardinal (2-2)

Big Ten Report
The games went pretty much as expected, expect for two large blowouts.  Michigan State's defense was completely useless against Notre Dame, and Maryland's offense could do nothing against the might of UCF's defense.  Iowa played Penn State tough, but that was not too surprising.  They did the same thing against Michigan last year at home; some national analysts were predicting an upset.  Nebraska was the only real surprise, as they found some offensive footing last week.  We'll see if that continues this week.

Upset Alert
The upsets began Friday, as Virginia completely bullied Boise State on their own blue turf.  Then, on Saturday, TCU rolled over Oklahoma State, Georgia nearly shut out Mississippi State, Notre Dame embarrassed Michigan State, and Arizona State squeaked past Oregon.  FCS Southern Illinois pulled off a near-upset against Memphis, which knocked them out of Top 25 contention for a while.

Poor Performers
For poor offensive performances, I'd say two excellent examples this past week were Maryland and Vanderbilt.  The Terrapins were battling a decent defense in UCF, but they were making too many mistakes on their own.  The Commodores, an impressive 3-0 coming into a game against Alabama, could barely get first downs and found little traction against the Tide.

Defenses were not immune to poor performances this week.  Two of the most blatant examples were at Oklahoma and Michigan State.  Baylor had struggled mightily this season, yet they made it look easy against the Sooners.  Michigan State had the highest ranked defense in FBS coming into their game; they didn't have it when they left.

Great Performers
Not too many surprises last week.  USC had their second amazing fourth quarter of the season, and Iowa's defense was amazingly tough.  We'll see if some surprises pop up this coming week.

NFL 2017 Week 3 picks

We're still trying to figure out some teams, as we have some surprise successes (like Detroit) and some surprise stumblers (like the Giants and Colts).  Let's see how many surprises we continue to have this week.

Thurs Sept 21
LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are still trying to find themselves with their new slate of players.  The stiff Rams defense won't give them much of a chance to do that in this game.  RAMS

Sun - London game
Baltimore Ravens v Jacksonville Jaguars: An early morning game (for American viewers) between a surprisingly capable Jaguars team and the powerful Ravens.  The Ravens will get to show off a strong defense combined with a smooth-flowing offense.  The Jaguars are more sporadic.  They may show off on the world stage, but we can't always count on them.  RAVENS

Sunday early games
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions:  How's this for a surprise!  Although both teams are 2-0, the Lions have actually looked a little better so far.  Atlanta could certainly win, but I have to give the nod to the home team in this one.  LIONS

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: Both teams are searching for their first win.  DeShone Kizer is slowly improving, while the Colts seem lost in their current un-Luck-y state.  This game could come down to who makes the fewest errors, which is hard to predict, but I'll give a nod (and the upset call) to the new look BROWNS.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills:  The Bills offense looks woeful this season.  The defense is good, but can they stop the Broncos?  I feared the Broncos offense would decline this season, but not so far.  The Broncos are proving to be firing on all cylinders right now, and they'll continue that against a rather pathetic looking Bills team.  BRONCOS

Houston Texans at New England Patriots:  The Patriots get some injured players back, and they regained some of their swagger last week.  The Texans have lost some of their luster from years earlier, even among the defensive squad.  While it would be great to see the Texans get back on track and pull off the upset, I'm not expecting it.  PATRIOTS

Miami Dolphins at NY Jets:  I'll admit, Jay Cutler seems to have gained some punch in the Florida sunshine.  Of course, anyone will look good this year against the hapless Jets.  DOLPHINS

NY Giants at Philadelphia Eagles:  The Giants own perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, and that spells trouble for Jersey fans.  Given the Eagles' speed, they will be outmaneuvering the Giants all day, which will make a long day on both sides of the ball.  EAGLES

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: The Saints have not started out badly, but they aren't putting forth enough to win.  Whether it's enough strength, enough endurance, enough confidence, enough motivation -- something is putting a limit on the output of the Saints.  If they don't find a way to remove that cap, they will have problems.  PANTHERS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears: Another team that can't generate enough is the Bears.  They aren't terrible, but they aren't able to generate enough of a passing game to support their dynamic running game.  They have two excellent running backs, but that will only get you so far.  You need a stable passing game to mix up the plays and keep the defense spread out.  Unfortunately they don't do that, and a skilled defense like the Steelers will just chew them up.  STEELERS

Tampa Bay Bucs at Minnesota Vikings:  Without Sam Bradford, the Vikings offense acts like a team with no leader.  The defense has its own set of problems.  The Bucs are doing much better.  Jameis Winston's development is progressing very well, and the defense has some power, too.  BUCS

Sunday late games
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers: The Packers have looked a bit anemic so far this season, especially on defense, but the Bengals have looked downright sick.  Andy Dalton does not seem to have recovered from his atrocious opening game, and the offense is struggling because of it.  If he doesn't get his head in the game soon, the season is over for Cincy, especially given the competition in their division and conference.  PACKERS

Kansas City Chiefs at LA Chargers:  The Chargers are another team who have looked anemic, while the Chiefs are absolutely rolling.  Alex Smith is giving everyone a chance to carry the ball, as well as carry the load, and they are posting stellar numbers.  CHIEFS

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans:  Speaking of anemic performances, we come to the Seahawks. They have not been good on the road for a few years, but they haven't looked good anywhere.  They keep relying on their defense to keep them in the game, but how long can that last?  They seem especially susceptible to big plays, which is something the Titans love to attempt.  While I think this game will be close, it won't be statistically (Seahawks love to force turnovers, which may be the only thing that keeps them alive).  TITANS

Sunday night game
Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are another team with issues on offensive line, which will be exposed against rush-happy Oakland.  Their defense is okay, but the Raiders have really upped their offensive game this year.  RAIDERS

Monday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals: Dallas is not the overpowering offensive force they were last year, but they're still strong enough to be scary.  The Cardinals defense is sturdy, but I have a feeling the Cowboys will wear them down.  This will be a close game until the fourth, where the Cardinals start getting tired and the Cowboys get enough extra yardage to secure a win.  COWBOYS

NCAA Week 4 picks

Thurs Sept 21
Temple Owls at #20 South Florida Bulls:  The Owls should not give the Bulls a difficult time.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Fri Sept 22
Virginia Cavaliers at Boise State Broncos:  Boise may not be the powerhouse of the Group of Five that it often has been, but they are still a good team, and are a tougher home team.  BOISE STATE

#23 Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats:  Aside from Washington, Utah might be the Pac-12 team that has shown the most consistent power so far this season.  That power should overwhelm the Wildcats, who just aren't as stacked as year as many other Pac-12 teams.  UTAH

Sat Sept 23
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Vanderbilt Commodores:  Vandy beat Kansas State last week to advance to 3-0, but now they face their first major foe.  It won't be pretty.  ALABAMA

#2 Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears:  Baylor has completely collapsed this season.  This might be the easiest conference game for Oklahoma.  OKLAHOMA

Boston College Eagles at #3 Clemson Tigers:  BC's sputtering offense comes in to face the stingy Tigers defense.  The result will not be in doubt; the only question might be is whether the Eagles can prevent a shutout.  CLEMSON

#4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes:  This one may not be as easy as Penn State would like.  Iowa found their spark in the second half of last week's game, and that's what they are bringing into this one.  The Lions defense is sturdy, though, and the offense can control the pace and wear down their opponent.  They'll do that here.  PENN STATE

#17 TCU Horned Frogs at #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Horned Frogs have been a decent team so far, but the Cowboys have been terrific.  They should jump out to an early lead and expand from there.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#7 Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue has been playing some gutsy performances, and they catch Michigan before their offensive woes are resolved.  The big question is whether Purdue can succeed against the stiff Wolverines defense.  Not for long.  MICHIGAN

#8 Washington Huskies at Colorado Buffaloes:  Colorado has begun 3-0, but can they maintain that against the hottest team in the Pac-12?  I don't think so.  WASHINGTON

#12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #9 Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans had an extra week to prepare for this game, but they may not have needed it.  Michigan State, and much of the Big Ten, play Notre Dame tough.  This will be a close game, but the Spartans should prevail.  MICHIGAN STATE

#10 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #14 Georgia Bulldogs:  Who let the Dawgs out?  This drama of the droolers pits the best offense in the SEC against the hard-driving home team.  Can Georgia slow down the powerful offense of Mississippi State?  Perhaps, but not enough. MISSISSIPPI STATE

#11 USC Trojans at Cal Golden Bears:  USC hopes to get a breather after the tough games they've played, but Cal can be tricky.  They won't be tricky enough to win, but they may keep it closer than the Trojans would like.  USC

Old Dominion Monarchs at #13 Virginia Tech Hokies:  This should be an easy win.  VIRGINIA TECH

#15 UCF Golden Knights at #25 Maryland Terrapins:  Time for Maryland to prove that their win over Texas wasn't a fluke.  Both teams have had more time off than they would like.  Which one is more rusty?  UCF's defense has to face the powerful Maryland offense.  Offenses require more practice than defense, so I have to pick the Knights, but let's see if Maryland can surprise.  UCF

UNLV Running Rebels at #16 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes need to tighten their defense, but they won't need it too tight to win this game.  OHIO STATE

#18 Auburn Tigers at Missouri Tigers:  Missouri might be the worst team in the SEC this season.  AUBURN

Nevada Wolf Pack at #21 Washington State Cougars:  The Cougars will make mincemeat of the Wolf Pack.  WASHINGTON STATE

Cincinnati Bearcats at #22 Navy Midshipmen:  Cincinnati can be tough, but they aren't tough enough to stay fresh against the grinding Navy ground game.  NAVY

#24 UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal:  Could Stanford go 1-3? The Bruins haven't been the most stable team so far this season, but Stanford has not been able to pull themselves together.  If they do, they should win, but I can't pick them until I see evidence.  UCLA

Big Ten games
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Interesting battle between the two worst teams in the conference.  In situations like that, I usually pick the home team.  Nebraska has the talent to support that.  NEBRASKA

Georgia Southern Eagles at Indiana Hoosiers:  Indiana is very strong, and should pulverize the Eagles.  INDIANA

Other games of Interest
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston Cougars:  Either team is capable of winning this game.  Tech has usually focussed only on offense.  That one-sided strategy gives Houston the edge.  HOUSTON

Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas has collapsed this season,  The Aggies aren't strong, but they should overpower Arkansas.  TEXAS A&M

San Diego State Aztecs at Air Force Falcons:  San Diego State proved themselves last week, and that can continue this week. SAN DIEGO STATE

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats:  People still believe Florida is a top team, but this game should squash that.  Kentucky has proven to be a good team, and a victory here should confirm that.  KENTUCKY

NCAA Week 3 in review

Still three cancelled or rescheduled games due to the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, but things began to look more normal this week.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [1]
2. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [2]
3. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [3]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) [4]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) [5]
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [6]
7. Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [7]
8. Washington Huskies (3-0) [12]
9. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) [8]
10. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0) [20]
11. USC Trojans (3-0) [11]
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) [15]
13. Virginia Tech Hokies (3-0) [NR]
14. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) [14]
15. UCF Golden Knights (1-0) [16]
16. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1) [18]
17. TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) [22]
18. Auburn Tigers (2-1) [13]
19. Texas Longhorns (1-2) [19]
20. South Florida Bulls (3-0) [23]
21. Washington State Cougars (3-0) [NR]
22. Navy Midshipmen (2-0) [21]
23. Utah Utes (3-0) [NR]
24. UCLA Bruins (2-1) [9]
25. Maryland Terrapins (2-0) [24]

On the Edge: Colorado Buffaloes (3-0), Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-0), Oregon Ducks (3-0), Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0), West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1), Texas A&M Aggies (2-1), Memphis Tigers (2-0), Wake Forest Demon Deacons (3-0)

Dropped off: LSU Tigers [#10], Stanford Cardinal [#17], Louisville Cardinals [#25]

Big Ten Report
A great week for the conference.  Illinois' defense crumbled against South Florida, and Nebraska lost their second game, but everyone else won.  Nebraska and Rutgers are the only teams with two losses (although Indiana has played one less game and possess a 1-1 record), and Nebraska seems confused.  Rutgers seems to be slowly improving, so Nebraska is the team with the greatest concern.  Given the strength of the conference this year, the Cornhuskers may not win more than one conference game.

We move to official conference play next week (even though Ohio State and Indiana already started) and some of the traditional powers might need to watch out.  Normally mediocre (or worse) teams look strong this season, and it could be a shock for teams like Michigan (who have a strong defense but the offense looks confused) and Ohio State (whose tackling seems off).  With the exception of Rutgers and Nebraska, division titles are wide open right now.

Upset Alert
MEMPHIS opened things up on Saturday by up-ending the heavily-favored Bruins. For a while it seemed like that might be the only upset, but then MISSISSIPPI STATE started the second half of their game against LSU.  They totally dominated, and a new power in the SEC West emerged.  The night ended by SAN DIEGO STATE handing Stanford their second consecutive loss, essentially evaporating any national championship playoff hopes for the Cardinal.

Poor Performers
As previously stated, the ILLINOIS DEFENSE and MICHIGAN OFFENSE fall into this category.  Actually, the Wolverines move the ball well until the red zone, where they collapse.  They kicked five field goals this week in a win, but they need to turn some of those field goals into touchdowns.

LSU suffers from too many penalties, and their offense isn't good enough to recover from that.  They need to get disciplined, and do so fast, or they'll be shredded by better and more disciplined SEC teams.  KANSAS STATE's offense was exposed by Vanderbilt, and many national analysts were not surprised.  This is the result of playing nothing but patsies until your conference play.

For overall poor showing, no team surpasses MISSOURI.  Nothing is working for the Tigers, which means a long tough season for the players, coaches, and fans.

Great Performers
For great quarterback play, I don't think you can get better than OKLAHOMA STATE's Mason Rudolph.  In three weeks he has put up better numbers than any other quarterback in FBS, including pre-season darlings Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, and Lamar Jackson.

For great running, how about WISCONSIN?  They accumulated more than 230 yards on the ground, and ran more than they passed.  They averaged nearly six yards per carry, which kept BYU focussed on the ground game.  That allowed Alex Hornibrook time, and he had a near perfect performance.  This team truly demonstrates how a strong running game opens up the passing game.

Fellow Big Ten team IOWA HAWKEYES demonstrated a great second half correction.  In the first half of their game against North Texas, they were careless and had trouble stopping the Mean Green.  In the second half, they completely dominated.  That's was excellent use of halftime.

Two minutes drill can be important, and no team demonstrated that better than FLORIDA.  In a battle against Tennessee, they get a final possession tied 20-20.  With a perfect series of passes and misdirection, the Gators score the winning touchdown as time expires.

Everyone is touting the Clemson defense, but they weren't the only example of strong defenses.  OHIO STATE tormented Army all day, shutting down their strong running game and rushing their quarterback to throw off passes.  And let's not forget the excellent job of TEXAS.  Playing against the high-powered USC offense, they held them to 17 points and forced overtime.  While the Longhorns lost in the second overtime, it was a masterful performance.

NFL 2017 Week 3 picks

Thurs Sept 14
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals:  Both of these teams need to redeem themselves from a poor opening weekend.  The Texans already put themselves into disarray by benching Tom Savage and moving in DeShaun Watson.  Is he ready yet?  I don't think so.  Andy Dalton has the experience to bounce back from his career poor performance, so I'll give the Bengals the edge.  BENGALS

Sunday early games
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts:  Arizona blew a big lead last week, so you can be sure they'll be tougher this week.  Without Andrew Luck, the Colts seem confused, and the lack of a running game doesn't help.  CARDINALS

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers:  The Bills looked better than I expected last week, but that could be because the Jets defense doesn't have much punch.  They'll get punched by Carolina this week.  PANTHERS

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Bucs:  Hurricane Irma delayed the Bucs' opening, and now they have to play 16 straight games.  They'll fade by the end of the season.  Now they are fresh, but they also missed the chance to get coordinated with new starters in opening week.  The Bears showed more strength than I thought, especially producing two 100-yard rushers, so I think that one-week extra experience will help them.  BEARS

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens:  The only real mystery is week is whether the Ravens will get their shutout in a row.  RAVENS

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers:  Sam Bradford had a career-topping game last week, but the Steelers will give him a more difficult time.  When you rush Bradford, you throw off his pace, and the Steelers love to rush.  The Steelers may have lost a receiver to injury last week, but they still have enough weapons to get past a Bradford-frazzled Vikings offense.  STEELERS

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints:  The Patriots badly need to bounce back from last week, and no coach is better at that than Bill Belichick.  The Saints will battle, but the Patriots will prevail.  PATRIOTS

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs blew past the Patriots, but I watched that game.  The Patriots seemed to be shocked and stopped pursuing.  The Eagles won't quit, so I think they'll squeeze out a victory.  EAGLES

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars:  Blake Bortles had a stellar game last week, but his biggest problem has been inconsistency, and that was on display during preseason.  I think he'll fall back this week, giving the Titans the chance to win.  TITANS

Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos:  It looks like Ezekial Elliott will play again this week, which gives Dallas just enough weapons to get past the Broncos.  COWBOYS

Miami Dolphins at LA Chargers:  I still don't trust Jay Cutler to win consistently.  CHARGERS

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders:  The Jets may be the worst team in the league this year.  Picking anyone to beat them is a good bet.  The Raiders have been working hard the past few years to improve their team, and it seems to have worked, so they could win regardless of the pathetic Jets.  RAIDERS

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks are a fierce home team, and the 49ers are kind of floundering right now.  This one won't be in doubt.  SEAHAWKS

Washington Redskins at LA Rams:  The Redskins offensive line is very weak, which will give the forceful Rams defense plenty of openings to chase down Kirk Cousins.  This will not be pretty for the Redskins.  RAMS

Sunday night game
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons:  Matt Ryan and the Falcons are hoping to return to the Super Bowl, but the loss of a Super Bowl that they seemed to have wrapped up has made them question themselves, and that's not a good way to win the NFC.  Green Bay is sure of what they are capable of accomplishing, and they'll demonstrate that in this game.  PACKERS

Monday Night Football
Detroit Lions at New York Giants:  Detroit pulled off a tremendous comeback last week, but I don't see that happening again.  The Giants have plenty of weapons, although some were injured last week.  That could make this game close, but I still think the Giants can pull it out.  GIANTS

NCAA Week 3 preview

Hurricane Irma diminished swiftly when it made landfall, allowing many southern Florida games to be played this weekend. Two games were still affected:  Miami at Florida State (which is being rescheduled for November) and Georgia Tech at UCF (which may not be rescheduled).  For the rest of the FBS, it's business as usual.

Thurs Sept 14
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos:  While Boise State has not been as dominant as usual (in other words, not leading the Group of 5), they are still a strong team, especially at home.  BOISE STATE

Fri Sept 15
Illinois Fighting Illini at #23 South Florida Bulls:  We'll see how much Hurricane Irma interrupted the Bulls practice.  Two weeks ago I would have picked an easy win for South Florida; now I'm not so sure.  Illinois has proven to be a much-improved team, and South Florida looked a little shaky in their only FBS match-up.  I'll still pick the Bulls, but the Illini might stretch them.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Massachusetts Minutemen at Temple Owls:  UMass is struggling, while the Owls seem to have a pretty good squad this year.  This should be a nice win for Temple.  TEMPLE

Arizona Wildcats at UTEP Miners:  Neither team has looked impressive, but Arizona tackles tougher competition, so they should play a little tougher.  ARIZONA

Sat Sept 16
Colorado State Rams at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Another easy win for the preseason favorite.  Not much of a warm-up before SEC play, however.  ALABAMA

Tulane Green Wave at #2 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Sooners get a nice easy contest after exhausting themselves running up and down the field against the Buckeyes last week.  Maybe some of their players will have a chance to heal up before Big XII play.  OKLAHOMA

#3 Clemson Tigers at #25 Louisville Cardinals:  Farewell to the Top 25, Cardinals.  Despite Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals will be rolled by the Tigers.  This is the featured game on Saturday night, but I don't think it'll be close.  CLEMSON

Georgia State Panthers at #4 Penn State Nittany Lions:  The Panthers are now an FBS team, so Penn State gets lots of points to impress the national committee.  PENN STATE

#5 Wisconsin Badgers at BYU Cougars:  It hasn't been a good season for BYU so far.  This game will make it worse.  WISCONSIN

#6 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Pittsburgh Panthers:  Pitt couldn't use their in-state rivalry to stay close to Penn State last week, so how much energy and incentive do these guys have left?  After this game, only conference play can get them motivated.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Air Force Falcons at #7 Michigan Wolverines:  It's never fun coming into the Big House to play.  Michigan's defense will make it even more difficult for grounded Air Force.  MICHIGAN

#9 UCLA Bruins at Memphis Tigers:  Memphis' only advantage is the early start time for the West Coast visitors.  After halftime, though, it'll be all Bruins.  UCLA

#10 LSU Tigers at #20 Mississippi State Bulldogs:  LSU's defense gives them the edge, but watch out for the home team!  Mississippi State has pulled off some exciting upsets at home in recent years, and this one has the makings of another.  LSU

#19 Texas Longhorns at #11 USC Trojans:  This is where the Longhorns really prove if their Week 1 loss to Maryland was opening jitters or not.  Truthfully, I don't think they have the defense to slow the Trojans and they don't have the offense to keep pace.  USC

Fresno State Bulldogs at #12 Washington Huskies:  Not much of a challenge here.  WASHINGTON

Mercer (FCS) at #13 Auburn Tigers:  Obvious.  AUBURN

Samford (FCS) at #14 Georgia Bulldogs:  Jeez, don't the SEC teams have it easy this week.  GEORGIA

#15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Boston College Eagles:  BC usually plays Notre Dame tough, but they're really going to have to extend themselves to pull off this upset.  I don't think so.  NOTRE DAME

#17 Stanford Cardinal at San Diego State Aztecs:  Great chance for the Cardinal to bounce back from a pretty poor showing against USC last week.  STANFORD

Army Black Knights at #18 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes' defense had trouble tackling Oklahoma last week, but Army is primarily a running team.  The Buckeyes' defensive line is strong, so this game should give twitchy QB JT Barrett a chance to get his groove back.  OHIO STATE

SMU Mustangs at #22 TCU Horned Frogs:  SMU has looked pretty good, but now they face a real challenge.  Unfortunately, I think this is a little too much for them, but they might hold their own for three quarters.  TCU

Big Ten
Northern Illinois Huskies at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Believe it or not, this will be a real test for Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers have seemed a bit out of sorts, especially in terms of communication between quarterback and receiver.  If they can't get it together for this game, the Huskies are strong enough to beat them.  I think Nebraska might edge it out, as I suspect it will be a close game, and Nebraska seems to push close games in their favor late in the fourth quarter.  NEBRASKA

Morgan State (FCS) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  At least Rutgers won't go winless before Big Ten play begins.  Given the strength of the conference this year, this might be the Knights only win of the season.  RUTGERS

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota shone last week, overcoming a slightly sluggish performance in Week 3.  If they keep improving, they can't be beaten here.  MINNESOTA

Florida International Golden Panthers at Indiana Hoosiers:  When this was scheduled, Florida International thought it might be a chance to showcase their rejuvenated team.  Instead, it will be a spotlight for Indiana's awesome offense.  INDIANA

North Texas Mean Green at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa should bounce back from a tight win against in-state rival Iowa State to take this one.  IOWA

Purdue Boilermakers at Missouri Tigers:  How badly are the Tigers struggling?  I'm picking the Boilermakers to win.  PURDUE

Bowling Green Falcons at Northwestern Wildcats:  Fortunately it's a down year for the Falcons, or I might consider the upset.  NORTHWESTERN

Other Games of Interest
Baylor Bears at Duke Blue Devils:  The Bears are having a rough year, and Duke showed their power last week against Northwestern.  I'm picking the upset.  DUKE

Ole Miss Rebels at California Golden Bears:  Neither team has been impressive so far.  This is an important win for someone.  I think Ole Miss a bit more gas in their offensive tank than Cal, but watch out for those Bears!  OLE MISS

NCAA Week 2 in review

USC and Texas bounced back from sub-par Week 1 performances.  We'll have to wait a while longer to see how Florida and Florida State bounce back, as the threat of Hurricane Irma kept them from playing.  In fact, Irma caused seven games to be cancelled, rescheduled, or relocated, making it one of the most disruptive storms in college football history.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) [1]
2. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) [6]
3. Clemson Tigers (2-0) [3]
4. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) [5]
5. Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) [7]
6. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0) [8]
7. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) [11]
8. Michigan State Spartans (2-0) [14]
9. UCLA Bruins (2-0) [21]
10. LSU Tigers (2-0) [10]
11. USC Trojans (2-0) [19]
12. Washington Huskies (2-0) [13]
13. Auburn Tigers (1-1) [12]
14. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) [18]
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-1) [9]
16. UCF Golden Knights (1-0) [16]
17. Stanford Cardinal (1-1) [2]
18. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-1) [4]
19. Texas Longhorns (1-1) [NR]
20. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) [NR]
21. Navy Midshipmen (2-0) [17]
22. TCU Horned Frogs (2-0) [NR]
23. South Florida Bulls (2-0) [23]
24. Maryland Terrapins (2-0) [24]
25. Louisville Cardinals (2-0) [NR]

On the Edge:  Colorado Buffaloes (2-0), South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)
Dropped out: Iowa Hawkeyes [#15], Virginia Tech Hokies [#20], Tennessee Volunteers [#22], Northwestern Wildcats [#25]

Big Ten Report
Another impressive week for the conference.  Despite a collapse by the Ohio State defense (when did these guys forget how to tackle?), the rest of the conference showed up well.  Nebraska nearly matched pace with the frenetic Oregon offense, Rutgers nearly beat Eastern Michigan, and Minnesota blew away Oregon State. Aside from the Ohio State loss, the biggest disappointment was Northwestern, who couldn't get anything going against Duke.  Iowa barely beat Iowa State, but the Cyclones have often upset them in the past, so any win against their in-state rival is cause for celebration.

Truthfully, I was most impressed with Illinois.  Here's a team that has struggled for many years, and often fade in the fourth quarter.  They shut down Western Kentucky for three quarters, and beat them 20-7 in a dominating victory.  It seems like Lovey Smith may have turned this team around.

Upset Alert
I already mentioned the Duke victory above.  Could the Blue Devils still have power, or was this one of the games that Northwestern gives away each year?  We'll have to wait and see.

The Group of Five teams showed up this week.  MAC midling Central Michigan pummeled Kansas, and Sun Belt newcomer UT San Antonio handed Baylor their second consecutive loss.  The FCS gained another victory, too, as New Hampshire drubbed Georgia Southern.

Poor Performers
LOUISVILLE gets both Poor and Great Performer recognition this week.  Lamar Jackson and the offense exploded, but the defense imploded.  I don't think the Cardinals can win their conference if they rely on their offense alone, so they'd better get their defense straightened out.

Defensive woes also affected OLE MISS, CAL, and STANFORD.  Ole Miss and Cal allowed FCS opponents to rack up way too much yardage.  Stanford, a normally stalwart defensive team, seemed to have no idea how to deal with USC's Sam Darnold. 

Defense was also missing in OREGON STATE's play, allowing Minnesota to score 43 points against them.  Worse, their offense was anemic as well, which prevented them from doing anything in the game. Offense was also absent for ARKANSAS, who accumulated less offensive yards than over 2/3 of the FCS opponents this week.

Great Performers
BALL STATE played a dominant game against UAB, which signalled both UAB's collapse and the power of the rejuvenated Illinois squad, who beat Ball State last week.  TULANE, a typical weakling, and FCS HOWARD, both played well against stronger opponents. Lastly, the USC Trojans showed the offensive power that gained them so much preseason buzz.

NCAA Week 2 picks

I acknowledge this is posting late (I've had a hectic week on campus!), but I assure you that the Friday night picks were made before the games started!

I will not pick every single FBS game on the schedule (you wouldn't want to read a column that long!).  I will discuss games played by my Top 25 teams, all Big Ten teams, and any other interesting matchups that I see.

First off, some changes due to Hurricane Irma.  Some start times have been changed to noon to give fans a chance to flee the dangerous areas.  The Florida International Golden Panthers now travel to Birmingham to play Alcorn State, and that's happening Friday night.  These games have been cancelled:  Memphis at #16 UCF Golden Knights (after being moved to Memphis), #23 South Florida Bulls at UConn Huskies, Miami Hurricanes (now an ironic team name) at Arkansas State Red Wolves, and Northern Colorado at Florida Gators.

Friday Sept 8th
#8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at South Alabama Jaguars:  This one will be very one-sided.  The Jags' defense will keep it from getting out of control in the first half, but the winner will be obvious very early.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers:  Purdue may have lost last week, but they proved that their offense is powerful!  They should overwhelm the Bobcats and gain their first win for the season.  PURDUE

Saturday Sept 9th
Fresno State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  This one may be over in the first half.  ALABAMA

#2 Stanford Cardinal at #19 USC Trojans:  Second consecutive test for the Trojans, and it's against a tough conference opponent.  Sam Darnold proved to be human last week, but he can still move the ball.  This should be an offensive showcase.  STANFORD

#12 Auburn Tigers at #3 Clemson Tigers:  A non-conference battle of Tigers pits the Auburn defense against the Clemson offense.  I think the latter has the edge, but this game will be closer than Clemson fans would like.  CLEMSON

#6 Oklahoma Sooners at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes:  Some national analysts are picking the Buckeyes to fall, but they fail to understand that the Buckeyes' first week performance is typical, and helped solidify their squads.  They will play better this week; of course, they have to against the Sooners.  Oklahoma relies too much on Baker Mayfield, who will be pressured by the Ohio State pass rush.  OHIO STATE

Pittsburgh Panthers at #5 Penn State Nittany Lions:  This in-state rivalry won't provide much difficulty for the Nittany Lions.  PENN STATE

Florida Atlantic Owls at #7 Wisconsin Badgers:  The only Southern Florida team playing this weekend has to travel to Camp Randall Stadium and get upended by the Badgers.  At least the players are getting complementary housing so that they don't have to travel back to stormy Florida.  BADGERS

#18 Georgia Bulldogs at #9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  Georgia may be capable of the upset, but I don't think the Irish will allow that to happen.  NOTRE DAME

Chattanooga (FCS) at #10 LSU Tigers:  No brainer.  LSU

Cincinnati Bearcats at #11 Michigan Wolverines:  Michigan didn't have much problem with Florida last week, so Cincinnati won't cause them to break a sweat.  MICHIGAN

Montana (FCS) at #13 Washington Huskies:  Unlike LSU, at least Washington picked a former FCS Champion to host.  Montana might threaten early, but the Huskies should win this one fairly easily.  WASHINGTON

Western Michigan Broncos at #14 Michigan State Spartans:  The Broncos pushed USC nearly to the breaking point last week.  Michigan State doesn't have USC's offense, but their defense is tougher.  Let's see how Western Michigan faces that pressure.  MICHIGAN STATE in a possible squeaker

#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones:  Iowa State often gives Iowa fits, but the Hawkeyes look solid this year, so expect Iowa to emerge victorious here.  IOWA

Tulane Green Wave at #17 Navy Midshipmen:  No team consistently runs the ball better than Navy, and that can exhaust opposing defenses.  NAVY

Delaware (FCS) at #20 Virginia Tech Hokies:  Easy win for the Hokies, but it won't help their Top 25 position.  VIRGINIA TECH

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at #21 UCLA Bruins:  I don't think they'll need a miracle comeback this week, as they shouldn't trail in the second half at all.  UCLA

Indiana State (FCS) at #22 Tennessee Volunteers:  Depending upon how teams who play their first FBS team this week finish, the Vols might lose their Top 25 position despite a win.  TENNESSEE

Towson (FCS) at #24 Maryland Terrapins:  Same issue here, and they are further hampered if Texas loses again this week.  MARYLAND

#25 Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils:   The Wildcats should win this one.  Duke had a couple of good years not long ago, but they are falling back to their traditional lower-tier position.  NORTHWESTERN

Indiana Hoosiers at Virginia Cavaliers:  Another Big Ten-ACC match-up goes to the Big Ten.  INDIANA

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  This one might go to the Scarlet Knights, although the MAC teams always play the Big Ten tough.  RUTGERS

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon Ducks:  The Big Ten had a phenomenal week last week, and so far I've picked the Big Ten in all games.  Until now.  The Cornhuskers don't look sharp, and the Ducks offense can confuse the best of defenses, which doesn't include Nebraska.  OREGON

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Lovey Smith has the Illini looking better.  The Hilltoppers can be a tough team, but I think the Illini might pull this one out.  It should be an exciting fourth quarter!  ILLINOIS

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Oregon State Beavers:  Unfortunately, it looks like the state of Oregon will dominate the Big Ten this week.  OREGON STATE

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels:  Louisville expected to do better last week, while the Tar Heels held their own.  If the Cardinals aren't careful, this one could go to the home team.  LOUISVILLE

Howard (FCS) at Kent State Golden Flashes:  Kent State looked pretty bad last week.  If they don't improve, Howard could beat their second FBS team in a row.  HOWARD

NFL 2017 Week 1 picks

Start of a new NFL season, and each team has high hopes.  Fans, on the other hand, may not.  Many NYC fans, often hopelessly optimistic, already fear for a weak year for the Jets.  49ers fans hope the Brian Hoyer era will transform their fortunes, and Falcons fan hope to quickly evaporate memories of a "sure thing" Super Bowl that slipped away.

Thursday, Sept 7
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots:  The defending Super Bowl champs start the season favored to repeat, as they return a healthy roster that has dominated the AFC for years.  The Chiefs can be good, but they are inconsistent.  No team, and no coach, exploits a team's weaknesses better than Bill Belichik and his Patriots.  This one is an easy pick.  PATRIOTS

Sunday, Sept 10
Early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears:  While national analysts doubt that the Falcons can return to the Super Bowl, their first game should be an easy victory.  Mistake-prone QB Jay Cutler is gone, but Mike Glennon is not the solution.  Mitch Trubisky played better in preseason, and should probably be starting instead.  The Bears put their hopes for a quick start in the hands of a player who is bit too slow to compete against the fast-paced Falcons.  FALCONS

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions:  Arizona has put together a pretty potent offense, and the defense is stingy.  The Lions offense can be strong, but they often be their worst enemy.  The Cardinals have the type of defense that can exploit such errors, and even cause them.  CARDINALS

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals:  This will be a hard-fought divisional contest.  The blitzing Ravens defense will test the Bengals offensive line.  The Ravens offense suffers from a weak running game, making them fairly one-dimensional.  Defenses will dominate in this game, which favors the Ravens.  RAVENS

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans:  Sympathies will lie with the home team, given the recent troubles experienced in Houston.  The Texans won't need sympathy to win, though.  Despite preseason struggles, Blake Bortles returns under center.  If he starts to struggle, which is likely, the Jags could replace him with Chad Henne.  Texans' fans might want a QB change too, hoping to see DeShaun Watson leading the team, but the team is wisely hoping to groom him on the sidelines as long as possible, leaving Tom Savage in charge.  Given the strong Texans defense, I think Watson will remain on the bench for a while.  TEXANS

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills:  Does anyone really care about this game outside of New York?  The Bills start rookie Nathan Peterman at quarterback, which means running back LeSean McCoy will likely be very busy.  The Jets can't even count on that, with Matt Forte gone.  I'm not sure either team will cross the goal line.  BILLS

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans:  Many people believe this might be the Raiders' year.  That might be an overstatement, but they are a strong enough team to knock off the Titans.  RAIDERS

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins:  Expect former collegiate rivals Kirk Cousins and Terrelle Pryor Jr to connect on many big plays this season. The Redskins offense will move well.  The Eagles' offense is no slouch, either, so this game should put up some large yardage numbers.  The Redskins have a bit more control, which should help them prevail.  REDSKINS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns:  Each year, the Browns fans begin with high hopes.  It remains to be seen if rookie QB DeShone Kiser will provide the spark the type of success they've awaited for years, but the strength of the Steelers will pin back hopes for one week.  STEELERS

Late games:
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: There are still questions about the Brian Hoyer-led 49ers, while the Panthers are healthy and ready to rock.  PANTHERS

Indianapolis Colts at LA Rams:  Scott Tolzien will start at QB for the injured Andrew Luck.  That could give more carries to Frank Gore than his aging body can handle.  At any rate, the Colts face a stiff Rams defense, and their offense doesn't seem up to the task.  RAMS

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers:  Seattle has difficulty on the road, and a healthy Packers team will give them fits.  PACKERS

Sunday night:
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys:  Zeke Elliot is not playing this game, but we're not sure if Odell Beckham will be, either.  That might even things out.  However, the Giants defense was the only team to stymie Dak Prescott last year, so I'll give the edge to New York.  GIANTS

Monday, Sept 11th
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings:  We're not sure what type of reception Saints RB Adrian Peterson will receive for his Minnesota homecoming, but I think it'll be a win - for the visiting team.  The Saints offense is just too strong for the redesigned Vikings defense, and the offense can't keep pace with the high-powered Saints.  SAINTS

LA Chargers at Denver Broncos:  It's tough to play in Denver, although the Chargers are used to it.  The bigger concern is that we saw too many question marks during the preseason, and the Chargers do not seem to have addressed all of them.  BRONCOS

NCAA Week 1 results + Top 25

To all of my loyal fans, welcome back!  I know that a new job kept me too busy to blog last year, but I was surprised to realize that I skipped 2015 as well.  Thank you for your patience and your commitment.

To new folks, welcome to the continuation of a football column that began back in 1984.  For a while it was the Internet sports magazine "Top of the Key", and has been here on Blogger (formerly BlogSpot) for several years.

A few items for my new followers:  I comment on previous week results, post my own Top 25 (based on a computerized model using five key indicators of success), comment on the Big Ten conference (where I was born and raised), and predict the next week of games.  I do not comment on point spreads or over/under, as I do not advocate gambling.  I only pick winning teams, not margins.

As far as my Top 25, I do not produce a preseason ranking.  That is purely guesswork, based on what a writer would LIKE to see, or consisting mostly of the common teams and a few who did well the year before.  I don't start my Top 25 until teams start playing.  In order to be eligible for the Top 25, you must have played an FBS opponent and you must have a positive points differential (points scored - points given up) against FBS opponents.

That said, let's start with the...

Top 25 - Week 1
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
2. Stanford Cardinal (1-0)
3. Clemson Tigers (1-0)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)
6. Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
7. Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-0)
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0)
10. LSU Tigers (1-0)
11. Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
12. Auburn Tigers (1-0)
13. Washington Huskies (1-0)
14. Michigan State Spartans (1-0)
15. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0)
16. UCF Golden Knights (1-0)
17. Navy Midshipmen (1-0)
18. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
19. USC Trojans (1-0)
20. Virginia Tech Hokies (1-0)
21. UCLA Bruins (1-0)
22. Tennessee Volunteers (1-0)
23. South Florida Bulls (2-0)
24. Maryland Terrapins (1-0)
25. Northwestern Wildcats (1-0)

Big Ten Report
It was an impressive first win.  Only three teams lost their openers (one was going to happen, as two conference opponents played each other), and two of the losing teams were impressive even in losing.   Rutgers was the only real disappointment, and they were facing a ranked team, so a poor showing wasn't surprising.  There were two surprising winners, who I will discuss in the "Great Performers" section.

The best teams started slowly, as Ohio State and Wisconsin required nearly two quarters to get their "game legs" back, while Michigan was a bit lackluster in the first quarter.  Penn State was really the only "top dog" to come out biting. This is not too surprising, especially with the practice limitations imparted by the NCAA and the number of top players these teams had to replace.

Overall, it seems like a strong season for the conference, especially for commonly lower-tier teams like Indiana and Maryland.  Both exhibited strong offenses that should only improve as the season progresses, so long as they can remain healthy.

Upset Alerts
It was not a great opening week for some teams.  Wyoming, who were very impressive season, failed to deliver, falling to Iowa 24-3.  We had some FCS opponents win, including James Madison (beating East Carolina), Howard (beating UNLV), and Liberty (who does not begin FBS play until 2019) up-ending Baylor.  Baylor definitely seems to be a team in a rebuilding state.

The other upset was Texas, who lost to Maryland.  I don't consider that as much as an upset as the national analysts, though.  I could not figure out why Texas was ranked in the preseason Top 25.  That would seem to indicate that the analysts were playing Charlie Strong for Texas' struggles last year, as new coach Tom Herman inherited all of the same players.  Why would Texas struggle last year and be a contender this year, with the same slate of players recruited by Strong, unless it was Strong's leadership and play calling that was being questioned?  Yet, everyone thinks South Florida, Strong's new team, was a preseason Top 25 team as well.  Things didn't seem to add up.  Indeed, Maryland showed that the flaws Texas had last season (sputtering offense, non-existent defense) still exist.

Poor Performers
Some won, some lost, but none of these teams showed they had Top 25 caliber, at least to open the season.  One did make the Top 25, but only due to a scoring spate, aided by a turnover, late in the game. USC proved the danger of overly hyping a player in preseason.  QB Sam Darnold was being touted as a Heisman contender.  His performance on Saturday was good, but not Heisman caliber.  USC was also being considered a playoff contender, but if that defense doesn't improve, they won't even win the Pac-12.

Speaking of poor defense, let's add NEBRASKA to that list.  While Arkansas State is a decent that most people ignore, since they play in the Sun Belt Conference, they still should not have scored 36 points on Nebraska.  There are too many powerful offenses in the Big Ten, including Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan, for Nebraska to have such a weak defense.  If they don't improve that squad, it will be a long year.

Defense was also an issue for MISSOURI.  They were fortunate that Missouri State's defense is no good, or else we may have seen an upset there.  ANY FBS team allowing a "middle of the road" FCS team to score 43 points needs to address their defense. That's why OREGON STATE is a concern, as well, although they did keep Portland State to 32 points.  Since the Beavers only scored 35 points themselves, though, it was another upset in the making.

The other side of the ball (offense) was the bane of a couple of teams, including FLORIDA.  They were high on their quarterback, but the Wolverines brought that down to earth very quickly.  More troubling for the Gators, though, is the utter lack of a running game.  Both the defense (in turnovers) and special teams (in returns) gained more yards on the ground than the Gators' backs.  PITTSBURGH also suffered from a weak offense, who failed to score in one overtime period, forcing a second overtime period.

Great Performers
Though dominated by surprise Big Ten teams this week, one performance must be recognized.  UCLA was down 44-10 to Texas A&M late in the third quarter.  Fans were leaving, and I had switched to the other game playing on Sunday night.  Then, inconsistent QB Josh Rosen found this groove.  Engineering four drives that each took less than three minutes, he brought them within six points.  When a defensive stop gave the Bruins another chance on offense with slightly more than two minutes to play, Rosen executed his FIFTH excellent drive to take the lead.  A&M had enough time to get within field goal range, but a penalty and bad kick ensured that the best comeback in Pac-12 history remained a victory.

As the Big Ten Report stated, there were some surprises in the Big Ten.  Neither Maryland nor Purdue were expected to accomplish much this season, but I think we all may need to reevaluate that stance.  MARYLAND hounded Texas all day, and never relinquished an early lead.  The Terrapins posted 51 points against the Longhorns, more points scored by Maryland than in any two games combined last year.  Watch out for this offense, it's a doozy!  PURDUE also held pace with their opponent, a ranked Louisville.  I'm not sure if the Boilermakers looked so good due to a strong offense or a poor Louisville defense; we need another week or two to be sure.  Regardless, the traditional Big Ten doormat had an excellent game, despite losing by seven, and butchered Louisville's Top 25 chances (as performance v strength of opponent's 5-year history is a key success factor in my model).