Indianapolis Coach Jim Caldwell played it safe, and the Colts suffered their first loss of the season. I stated that would happen if Caldwell pulled the starters, which he did midway through the third quarter. If Sorgi wasn't injured it might have been a different story, but putting Curtis Painter on the field for his first regular season professional debut against a defense as tough as the Jets is a recipe for disaster, and it was. The Jets came back from a mere five-point deficit to decimate the Colts in the fourth quarter.
It seemed to be a bad week for the top teams all around, as the Saints and Vikings also lost. There's no excuse for the latter two, as both kept their starters in the game. The Saints offense was lackluster, and they should have won the game in regulation. The Vikings offense line couldn't give Brett Favre time to get set, which bodes ill for the playoffs. On the other hand, the Bears offense line did a great job of protecting Jay Cutler, something they hadn't been doing for weeks!
The playoff picture is getting clearer, and only one division title remains up for grabs. I'll attempt to clarify the entire picture at the end of the column. Let's get to the rankings first:
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-1) [1] : Wouldn't have been such a poor showing if the starters played
2. San Diego Chargers (12-3) [4] : They thoroughly trashed Tennessee to capture the second seed in the AFC
3. New Orleans Saints (13-2) [2] : They have to start to worry how they'll do in the playoffs
4. New England Patriots (10-5) [5] : A strong victory to capture the AFC East title
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) [6] : Competing for the second seed in the AFC, thanks to Minnesota's loss
6. Minnesota Vikings (11-4) [3] : Two consecutive losses make things grim in Minnesota
7. Green Bay Packers (10-5) [7] : Hottest team in the NFC North
8. Dallas Cowboys (10-5) [8] : Can still win the NFC East
9. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) [11] : Still eligible for the second seed in the NFC
10. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) [10] : Looked a little lackluster against KC
11. New York Jets (8-7) [12] : Nice game against Indy's starting defense
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) [15] : Still in the playoff hunt after two powerful wins in a row
13. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) [9] : Playoff chances in jeopardy
14. Houston Texans (8-7) [16]
15. Denver Broncos (8-7) [13] : Playoff contender, but not looking good
16. San Francisco 49ers (7-8) [17]
17. Atlanta Falcons (8-7) [18]
18. Carolina Panthers (7-8) [22] : Two weeks in a row the Panthers have hurt or destroyed the playoff hopes of a stronger opponent
19. New York Giants (8-7) [14] : Playoffs gone after getting demolished by Carolina
20. Chicago Bears (6-9) [23] : Now THAT'S the defense we know and love!
21. Miami Dolphins (7-8) [20]
22. Tennessee Titans (7-8) [19] : Playoff hopes gone - they should have switched to Young sooner
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-8) [21]
24. Cleveland Browns (5-10) [28] : Two wins in a row - the Browns are preparing for next year
25. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-12) [30] : Nice defense against the hottest offense in the league
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-10) [26]
27. Buffalo Bills (5-10) [24]
28. Washington Redskins (4-11) [25] : No doubt about it -- Zorn's out
29. Oakland Raiders (5-10) [27]
30. Kansas City Chiefs (3-12) [28]
31. Detroit Lions (2-13) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-14) [32] : They have the first draft pick
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC North [4] : HUGE week for all except Baltimore. Only one team in the Top Ten, but three in the top half of the league
2. NFC East [1] : The Giants and Redskins spoiled this division, one of two with two Top Ten teams
3. AFC South [2] : Indy still leads the league, but most of the others are fading
4. AFC East [3] : Good work for the Patriots, and the Jets are playoff contenders
5. NFC South [6] : Everyone except the Saints improved nicely
6. NFC North [5] : The Lions drag them down, and the Vikings loss didn't help
7. AFC West [7] : Denver is fading; San Diego is all they really have
8. NFC West [8]
Playoff picture:
AFC: Indy has the first seed and San Diego has the second. New England and Cincy will host the first round. Wildcard teams remain to be determined. Denver and the Jets lead the pack, but Houston and Pitt are hot right now. Denver plays KC, so they should win to capture the fifth seed. The Jets play New England, so a loss is likely. That opens the door for Baltimore, who play the Raiders. I think New England will beat the Jets to capture the third seed, the Texans beat Cincy to knock them to fourth seed, but Baltimore takes the sixth seed from the upset-minded Texans
NFC: The Saints are the first seed (and one of the weakest looking ones going into the playoffs). The second seed is up for grabs. Philly has the best position, but they have to play Dallas in Dallas. I think the Cowboys will overcome their December jinx and upset Philly. The Vikings will beat the Giants (barely), redeeming their performance in Chicago, and capture the second seed that they should have locked up two weeks ago. Arizona loses to the Packers, allowing Dallas to capture the third seed and Green Bay jumps over Philly for the fifth seed.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
2009 drawing to a close
Sheesh, as the twilight falls over the year 2009, I realize that I did not use this blog to the fullest extent I expected. I thought I had an excellent forum for some of my sports commentaries, and would miss them into my weekly analyses and predictions. Instead, I was so busy on campus that I had no time to research anything insightful or even take the time to type an opinion about a sports topic in a timely fashion; by the time I had enough free time to type something, twenty or more sports analysts had already talked the subject to death.
Hopefully 2010 will yield me better results. I realize the readership of this blog is down, and I'm partially to blame. In early posts, I put various labels on them so that the posts (and therefore the blog) could be found in Internet searches. I have not done that in the past several weeks, and so people can't find this blog. Again, something else for me to intentionally fix in 2010.
At least when the Super Bowl ends, I won't have football until August, and that should open up the opportunity for more sports commentary. This is especially true with the absence of Arena Football. It should be nice to get back on the soapbox after so many years away, since Sportsbytes.net limited my ramblings in the last couple of years of its existence.
Be prepared, sports world! The Ace Man will strike in 2010!
Hopefully 2010 will yield me better results. I realize the readership of this blog is down, and I'm partially to blame. In early posts, I put various labels on them so that the posts (and therefore the blog) could be found in Internet searches. I have not done that in the past several weeks, and so people can't find this blog. Again, something else for me to intentionally fix in 2010.
At least when the Super Bowl ends, I won't have football until August, and that should open up the opportunity for more sports commentary. This is especially true with the absence of Arena Football. It should be nice to get back on the soapbox after so many years away, since Sportsbytes.net limited my ramblings in the last couple of years of its existence.
Be prepared, sports world! The Ace Man will strike in 2010!
Monday, December 28, 2009
NCAA Bowls 2009, Part 2 - New Years Eve and Beyond
The majority of bowls fall into this group, thanks to a unusual New Years Day placement and a determination to push more bowls past New Years Day. How many people out there remember when the bowls ended the night of January 1st? I do.
Dec 31
Armed Forces Bowl - #15 Houston Cougars v Air Force Falcons: Traditionally a chance for Air Force or Navy to take center stage, the sentimental favorite is always the service academy playing. However, Houston's excellent rushing attack will wear down the Falcons' defensive line, and the Cougars will charge in the second half. HOUSTON
Sun Bowl - #19 Oklahoma Sooners v Stanford Cardinal: Okay, here's one of my upset picks. The Sooners are good, but horribly inconsistent. The Cardinal gets up for ranked opponents, so the Sooners are a motivator for Harbaugh's boys. Through in some clever passing formations that Oklahoma is not used to seeing, and I foresee a Stanford victory. STANFORD
Texas Bowl - Navy Midshipmen v Missouri Tigers: Navy has a strong running team, but the Tigers defensive line is tough. I like the offensive firepower of the Tigers, and don't think Navy has a sufficient defense to stop them. MISSOURI
Insight Bowl - Minnesota Golden Gophers v Iowa State Cyclones: This could be a close game! Sentimentally I have to pick the Big Ten team, and the Gophers have lived for close games all season long. This might be their type of game. MINNESOTA
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - #14 Virginia Tech Hokies v Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee tends to play well in bowl games, but few play harder than Virginia Tech. Tech has more weapons, too. VIRGINIA TECH
New Years Day
Outback Bowl - Northwestern Wildcats v Auburn Tigers: The Big Ten has owned the Outback Bowl in recent years, but I'm afraid that will change this year. Auburn was not the defensive power we're used to seeing, but their defense is still good enough to stall the Wildcats offense. Auburn's offense isn't great, but neither is the Wildcats defense, so I have to favor Auburn in a low-scoring affair. AUBURN
Capital One Bowl - #12 Penn State Nittany Lions v #18 LSU Tigers: Two tough defenses, but the difference will be the Penn State offense. Both teams hit hard, but the Penn State offense hits just as hard. PENN STATE
Gator Bowl - #23 West Virginia Mountaineers v Florida State Seminoles: This was a down year for the Seminoles. The Mountaineers should win big in this one, spoiling the last game of Bobby Bowden. WEST VIRGINIA
Rose Bowl - #9 Ohio State Buckeyes v #7 Oregon Ducks: The Buckeyes return to another Rose Bowl, and everyone who has watched Ohio State lose their last four BCS bowl games figure this to be another loss. I'm not so sure. Oregon plays well, but they haven't done well in bowl games. Also, they rely too heavily on a small number of players - the Buckeyes defense can cover a small number. They've had problems stopping teams full of talent like USC and Florida. The Ducks may be due for a fall, although this will probably be a close game. The Ducks could win on a final drive, but I think the Ohio State defense will stop them. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl - #5 Cincinnati Bearcats v #6 Florida Gators: At this point, we're not sure if Urban Meyer will be coaching the Gators or not, but we know Brian Kelly will be absent for the Bearcats. How much that will affect them is uncertain. We've noticed interim coaches do well in bowl games in recent years - the head coach is not as important on individual play calls in the modern football era. Still, I think Florida simply has too many tools for Cincy to stop, and the Gators defense is potent. I'm sure the Bearcats have studied film of Alabama's victory over Florida, but I don't think their defense can reproduce what Alabama did. FLORIDA
January 2 - Since this day falls on a Saturday, we get many bowl games that normally would be on December 31 or January 1, although the first one has been later in recent years
International Bowl - South Florida Bulls v Northern Illinois Huskies: Geez, why do we let two 7-5 teams play so late? Oh yes, this bowl was designed to show Canada how some non-hyped conferences play. Can the Huskies withstand the powerful turnover-causing Bulls defense? I don't think so. SOUTH FLORIDA
Papajohns.com Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks v UConn Huskies: Another team of huskies, another loss. Few coaches prepare for a bowl game better than Stever Spurrier (Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer, perhaps). South Carolina took some licks within the SEC, but they were unbeaten outside their conference this season, and that should continue in postseason. SOUTH CAROLINA
Cotton Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys v Ole Miss Rebels: Fox doesn't have a New Years double-header by moving this game, but Oklahoma State gets a larger audience to watch their dazzling offense. That offense will give Ole Miss fits, especially early in the game. The Rebels might start figuring it out, but how much of a lead will the Cowboys establish by then? I think it'll be too large for Ole Miss to come back from, although they will give it a good try. OKLAHOMA STATE
Liberty Bowl - Arkansas Razorbacks v #25 East Carolina Pirates: Another Jan 1 emigrant, we see the sporadic Razorback spread offense face off against the Pirates defense. That defense is good, and I think they'll keep the Razorbacks limited in yardage. The Pirates offense isn't great, so this will be a low-scoring defensive battle - just they type that East Carolina likes. EAST CAROLINA
Alamo Bowl - Michigan State Spartans v Texas Tech Red Raiders: Can the Spartans slow down the Raiders red-hot offense? Perhaps, but not enough for the Spartans offense to keep up. This will be an offensive showdown, as the Raiders don't have much of a defense, but it'll still be Tech's show. TEXAS TECH
Jan 4: Fiesta Bowl - #3 Boise State Broncos v #4 TCU Horned Frogs: Traditionally on Jan 2nd, this one gets bumped to Monday Night. They won't have competition, since the NFL has no Monday Night Football game, which should allow the entire country to watch these two BCS busters face off. TCU comes from the Mountain West, who is being considered for an automatic BCS bid. That alone might convince TCU to win the game, but they may also be capping off an unbeaten bowl record (the Mountain West is 3-0 in bowl games as I type this), the second time in three years the Mountain West would accomplish such a feat. That'll add incentive. TCU
Jan 5: Orange Bowl - #10 Iowa Hawkeyes v #8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: No Big Ten team has been as successful in bowl games in the last decade as the Hawkeyes, but that streak is in jeopardy against the powerful Tech defense. Iowa has lived and died on the fourth quarter comeback this season. They might pull off another one, but I think the Tech defense will kill off that chance. GEORGIA TECH
Jan 6: GMAC Bowl - #13 Central Michigan Chippewas v Troy Trojans: The Sun Belt Conference comes into this game unbeaten (1-0), but they won't exit that way. The Chippewas are the real deal, as they proved against the Big Ten this season. The only non-Sun Belt game the Trojans could win was against an FCS team. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Jan 7 - BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - #2 Texas Longhorns v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: We saw the Tide tear apart Florida's offense in the SEC Championship Game, while Nebraska showed how to heckle Texas. Alabama will do an even better job than the Cornhuskers did, bringing a National title to Tuskaloosa. ALABAMA
Dec 31
Armed Forces Bowl - #15 Houston Cougars v Air Force Falcons: Traditionally a chance for Air Force or Navy to take center stage, the sentimental favorite is always the service academy playing. However, Houston's excellent rushing attack will wear down the Falcons' defensive line, and the Cougars will charge in the second half. HOUSTON
Sun Bowl - #19 Oklahoma Sooners v Stanford Cardinal: Okay, here's one of my upset picks. The Sooners are good, but horribly inconsistent. The Cardinal gets up for ranked opponents, so the Sooners are a motivator for Harbaugh's boys. Through in some clever passing formations that Oklahoma is not used to seeing, and I foresee a Stanford victory. STANFORD
Texas Bowl - Navy Midshipmen v Missouri Tigers: Navy has a strong running team, but the Tigers defensive line is tough. I like the offensive firepower of the Tigers, and don't think Navy has a sufficient defense to stop them. MISSOURI
Insight Bowl - Minnesota Golden Gophers v Iowa State Cyclones: This could be a close game! Sentimentally I have to pick the Big Ten team, and the Gophers have lived for close games all season long. This might be their type of game. MINNESOTA
Chick-Fil-A Bowl - #14 Virginia Tech Hokies v Tennessee Volunteers: Tennessee tends to play well in bowl games, but few play harder than Virginia Tech. Tech has more weapons, too. VIRGINIA TECH
New Years Day
Outback Bowl - Northwestern Wildcats v Auburn Tigers: The Big Ten has owned the Outback Bowl in recent years, but I'm afraid that will change this year. Auburn was not the defensive power we're used to seeing, but their defense is still good enough to stall the Wildcats offense. Auburn's offense isn't great, but neither is the Wildcats defense, so I have to favor Auburn in a low-scoring affair. AUBURN
Capital One Bowl - #12 Penn State Nittany Lions v #18 LSU Tigers: Two tough defenses, but the difference will be the Penn State offense. Both teams hit hard, but the Penn State offense hits just as hard. PENN STATE
Gator Bowl - #23 West Virginia Mountaineers v Florida State Seminoles: This was a down year for the Seminoles. The Mountaineers should win big in this one, spoiling the last game of Bobby Bowden. WEST VIRGINIA
Rose Bowl - #9 Ohio State Buckeyes v #7 Oregon Ducks: The Buckeyes return to another Rose Bowl, and everyone who has watched Ohio State lose their last four BCS bowl games figure this to be another loss. I'm not so sure. Oregon plays well, but they haven't done well in bowl games. Also, they rely too heavily on a small number of players - the Buckeyes defense can cover a small number. They've had problems stopping teams full of talent like USC and Florida. The Ducks may be due for a fall, although this will probably be a close game. The Ducks could win on a final drive, but I think the Ohio State defense will stop them. OHIO STATE
Sugar Bowl - #5 Cincinnati Bearcats v #6 Florida Gators: At this point, we're not sure if Urban Meyer will be coaching the Gators or not, but we know Brian Kelly will be absent for the Bearcats. How much that will affect them is uncertain. We've noticed interim coaches do well in bowl games in recent years - the head coach is not as important on individual play calls in the modern football era. Still, I think Florida simply has too many tools for Cincy to stop, and the Gators defense is potent. I'm sure the Bearcats have studied film of Alabama's victory over Florida, but I don't think their defense can reproduce what Alabama did. FLORIDA
January 2 - Since this day falls on a Saturday, we get many bowl games that normally would be on December 31 or January 1, although the first one has been later in recent years
International Bowl - South Florida Bulls v Northern Illinois Huskies: Geez, why do we let two 7-5 teams play so late? Oh yes, this bowl was designed to show Canada how some non-hyped conferences play. Can the Huskies withstand the powerful turnover-causing Bulls defense? I don't think so. SOUTH FLORIDA
Papajohns.com Bowl - South Carolina Gamecocks v UConn Huskies: Another team of huskies, another loss. Few coaches prepare for a bowl game better than Stever Spurrier (Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer, perhaps). South Carolina took some licks within the SEC, but they were unbeaten outside their conference this season, and that should continue in postseason. SOUTH CAROLINA
Cotton Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys v Ole Miss Rebels: Fox doesn't have a New Years double-header by moving this game, but Oklahoma State gets a larger audience to watch their dazzling offense. That offense will give Ole Miss fits, especially early in the game. The Rebels might start figuring it out, but how much of a lead will the Cowboys establish by then? I think it'll be too large for Ole Miss to come back from, although they will give it a good try. OKLAHOMA STATE
Liberty Bowl - Arkansas Razorbacks v #25 East Carolina Pirates: Another Jan 1 emigrant, we see the sporadic Razorback spread offense face off against the Pirates defense. That defense is good, and I think they'll keep the Razorbacks limited in yardage. The Pirates offense isn't great, so this will be a low-scoring defensive battle - just they type that East Carolina likes. EAST CAROLINA
Alamo Bowl - Michigan State Spartans v Texas Tech Red Raiders: Can the Spartans slow down the Raiders red-hot offense? Perhaps, but not enough for the Spartans offense to keep up. This will be an offensive showdown, as the Raiders don't have much of a defense, but it'll still be Tech's show. TEXAS TECH
Jan 4: Fiesta Bowl - #3 Boise State Broncos v #4 TCU Horned Frogs: Traditionally on Jan 2nd, this one gets bumped to Monday Night. They won't have competition, since the NFL has no Monday Night Football game, which should allow the entire country to watch these two BCS busters face off. TCU comes from the Mountain West, who is being considered for an automatic BCS bid. That alone might convince TCU to win the game, but they may also be capping off an unbeaten bowl record (the Mountain West is 3-0 in bowl games as I type this), the second time in three years the Mountain West would accomplish such a feat. That'll add incentive. TCU
Jan 5: Orange Bowl - #10 Iowa Hawkeyes v #8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: No Big Ten team has been as successful in bowl games in the last decade as the Hawkeyes, but that streak is in jeopardy against the powerful Tech defense. Iowa has lived and died on the fourth quarter comeback this season. They might pull off another one, but I think the Tech defense will kill off that chance. GEORGIA TECH
Jan 6: GMAC Bowl - #13 Central Michigan Chippewas v Troy Trojans: The Sun Belt Conference comes into this game unbeaten (1-0), but they won't exit that way. The Chippewas are the real deal, as they proved against the Big Ten this season. The only non-Sun Belt game the Trojans could win was against an FCS team. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Jan 7 - BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - #2 Texas Longhorns v #1 Alabama Crimson Tide: We saw the Tide tear apart Florida's offense in the SEC Championship Game, while Nebraska showed how to heckle Texas. Alabama will do an even better job than the Cornhuskers did, bringing a National title to Tuskaloosa. ALABAMA
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
NFL Week 16 picks
We're in the home stretch. Wildcard positions are at stake for many of these games, and the league gives those with access to NFL Network a nice Christmas gift. For the rest of you, you may think the league is a Scrooge.
Christmas night - San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: Since the Chargers have clinched the second seed in the AFC, you might think they'd rest their starters. The Chargers have barely won some games, though, so I think the coaching staff will want to continue to hone their team. Given the current state of the Titans defense, I don't think they'll appreciate that. CHARGERS, 31-17
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers may have ended their losing streak last week, but the Ravens are the hottest team in the AFC right now. They are challenging Cincy for the division title, and they know they need to win every single game to even have a chance. They'll be relentless in this game. RAVENS, 21-13
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons: The Bills can play hard, but the Falcons are doing well. With the likely return of their two injured players, the Falcons will be even harder to beat. FALCONS, 24-20
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: The Giants are still hoping for a wildcard berth, so they won't let up. Carolina likes to play spoiler, and they may make this a close game, but the Giants offense is just too good for the Panthers defense to stop. GIANTS, 27-22
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: The Texans defense is just a little too physical for Miami to overcome. The Dolphins might make a late game run at a game-winning score, but I think the Texans will shut it down. TEXANS, 26-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots: The Patriots want to win this division NOW, so they'll make sure the Jaguars don't scratch them. PATS, 20-10
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy knows that they need this win to hold off Baltimore and gain the division title. Against the Chiefs, though, they wouldn't even need that incentive. BENGALS, 24-3
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are finding some strength to close the season, but I think the Raiders will grind this game out. I sense a defensive battle. RAIDERS, 13-10
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: One of the greatest advantages Green Bay has is the weather in Wisconsin in December. While the Seahawks probably won't be bothered by Lambeau Field in December, the Seahawks are just not capable of stopping the Packers. PACK, 31-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Saints should return to their winning ways as their offense rolls over the pathetic Bucs defense. SAINTS, 41-13
Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is chasing Minnesota for a playoff bye week, but they need to win the division first. A victory here will give them the NFC East crown and continue to pressure the Vikings. Denver needs a win to keep them frontrunners in the AFC wildcard race, but the Eagles are just too good right now. EAGLES, 23-16
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The Lions would love an upset to help redeem their season, but the 49ers defense is just too good. 49ERS, 20-6
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: If Coach Caldwell is honest about playing for an unbeaten season, they should prevail here. If he decides to rest some starters, the Jets defense is good enough to hand them their first loss. I think if things are going badly, Caldwell will put the starters back in, ensuring the victory. COLTS, 17-13
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Sorry, Rams, but that elusive second win remains so. CARDS, 41-13
Sunday night - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are yet to win a divisional game, and I don't think they'll get this one. The Cowboys are chasing Philly for the division title, and they know they need this win to set up the showdown next week in Dallas. COWBOYS, 27-10
Monday Night Football - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Sorry, Chicago, but the Vikings will trounce you. VIKES, 31-13
Christmas night - San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans: Since the Chargers have clinched the second seed in the AFC, you might think they'd rest their starters. The Chargers have barely won some games, though, so I think the coaching staff will want to continue to hone their team. Given the current state of the Titans defense, I don't think they'll appreciate that. CHARGERS, 31-17
Sunday early games:
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers may have ended their losing streak last week, but the Ravens are the hottest team in the AFC right now. They are challenging Cincy for the division title, and they know they need to win every single game to even have a chance. They'll be relentless in this game. RAVENS, 21-13
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons: The Bills can play hard, but the Falcons are doing well. With the likely return of their two injured players, the Falcons will be even harder to beat. FALCONS, 24-20
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: The Giants are still hoping for a wildcard berth, so they won't let up. Carolina likes to play spoiler, and they may make this a close game, but the Giants offense is just too good for the Panthers defense to stop. GIANTS, 27-22
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: The Texans defense is just a little too physical for Miami to overcome. The Dolphins might make a late game run at a game-winning score, but I think the Texans will shut it down. TEXANS, 26-20
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots: The Patriots want to win this division NOW, so they'll make sure the Jaguars don't scratch them. PATS, 20-10
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincy knows that they need this win to hold off Baltimore and gain the division title. Against the Chiefs, though, they wouldn't even need that incentive. BENGALS, 24-3
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are finding some strength to close the season, but I think the Raiders will grind this game out. I sense a defensive battle. RAIDERS, 13-10
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: One of the greatest advantages Green Bay has is the weather in Wisconsin in December. While the Seahawks probably won't be bothered by Lambeau Field in December, the Seahawks are just not capable of stopping the Packers. PACK, 31-17
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Saints should return to their winning ways as their offense rolls over the pathetic Bucs defense. SAINTS, 41-13
Sunday late games:
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is chasing Minnesota for a playoff bye week, but they need to win the division first. A victory here will give them the NFC East crown and continue to pressure the Vikings. Denver needs a win to keep them frontrunners in the AFC wildcard race, but the Eagles are just too good right now. EAGLES, 23-16
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: The Lions would love an upset to help redeem their season, but the 49ers defense is just too good. 49ERS, 20-6
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: If Coach Caldwell is honest about playing for an unbeaten season, they should prevail here. If he decides to rest some starters, the Jets defense is good enough to hand them their first loss. I think if things are going badly, Caldwell will put the starters back in, ensuring the victory. COLTS, 17-13
St Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Sorry, Rams, but that elusive second win remains so. CARDS, 41-13
Sunday night - Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: The Redskins are yet to win a divisional game, and I don't think they'll get this one. The Cowboys are chasing Philly for the division title, and they know they need this win to set up the showdown next week in Dallas. COWBOYS, 27-10
Monday Night Football - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Sorry, Chicago, but the Vikings will trounce you. VIKES, 31-13
NFL Power Rankings - Week 15
The Saints fell, leaving only the Colts as unbeaten. They have stated a commitment to playing full out and going unbeaten, but I know that they won't push key players if they aren't physically 100%, preferring to keep them available for the playoffs. That could open the door to a defeat in the next two weeks, especially since they face the tough Jets defense this week.
Tampa Bay won, leaving just the hapless Rams with a single victory. It looks like the Rams will gain the first pick in the draft.
Division titles are getting locked up, as three of them were awarded this week. Only three divisions remain contested, although each could be awarded this week. The wildcard race is still open, with eight potential AFC teams. The NFC is a bit less open, with only four non-divisional leading candidates remaining. I'll add wildcard considerations to this week's blog, after the division title races section.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-0) [1] : the sole remaining unbeaten team!
2. New Orleans Saints (13-1) [2] : The Saints haven't yet secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-3) [3] : The Vikings haven't yet guaranteed themselves a first week bye
4. San Diego Chargers (11-3) [4] : The Chargers HAVE secured a first week bye, as they are the AFC Second seed
5. New England Patriots (9-5) [8] : The Pats won they needed to
6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) [6] : Strong win, but still battling Dallas for the division title
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5) [5] : The Steelers ended their losing streak with a last second touchdown
8. Dallas Cowboys (9-5) [11] : The Cowboys did something no other team has done - beat the Saints. Could they face them again in the playoffs?
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) [9] : Two huge victories in a row are shrinking the gap between them and the top of the league
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) [7] : They still lead the division, but their non-division performance makes their playoff situation questionable
11. Arizona Cardinals (9-5) [14] : Lowest ranked division winner, mainly because the rest of the division has been knocked out of the playoffs - the only division with that distinction at this moment
12. New York Jets (7-7) [10] : Best defense in the league, but the offense continues to sputter
13. Denver Broncos (8-6) [11] : Tough loss to Oakland
14. New York Giants (8-6) [15] : One of their best offensive performances of the season
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) [21] : They preserved their playoff chances with a shocking last second upset of Green Bay
16. Houston Texans (7-7) [17] : Still in playoff contention, although a lousy divisional record won't help them
17. San Francisco 49ers (6-8) [12]
18. Atlanta Falcons (7-7) [20] : Atlanta beat the Jets despite missing their two best offensive players
19. Tennessee Titans (7-7) [19]
20. Miami Dolphins (7-7) [16]
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7) [19]
22. Carolina Panthers (6-8) [24] : The Panthers stung the Vikings. They may be out of the playoff race, but they still want to make matters difficult for opponents
23. Chicago Bears (5-9) [22]
24. Buffalo Bills (5-9) [23]
25. Washington Redskins (4-10) [25]
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-9) [26]
27. Oakland Raiders (5-9) [27]
28. Cleveland Browns (4-10) [29]
29. Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) [28]
30. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-12) [31]
31. Detroit Lions (2-12) [30]
32. St Louis Rams (1-13) [32]
Biggest gainer - Pittsburgh Steelers: Their last second touchdown ended their losing streak and propelled them back into the playoff hunt
Biggest sack - San Francisco 49ers: Their vaulted defense didn't look too good against the Eagles
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [2] : Two Top Ten teams, nobody dropping in strength, and a still tight divisional race makes this an interesting division
2. AFC South [1] : Everyone is still playoff eligible - no other division can say that
3. AFC East [3] : Despite drops by everyone but New England, this division still remains tightly in the hunt
4. AFC North [5] : Two Top Ten teams and a tightly contested divisional crown makes things interesting, but it was Pittsburgh's performance that really pushed them up
5. NFC North [4] : Wither the division, although Green Bay remains in the playoff hunt
6. NFC South [7] : Everyone moved up except for the Saints, and the Falcons remain strong despite key injuries
7. AFC West [6] : Denver remains a top wildcard contender, but this division is showing cracks
8. NFC West [8] : The only division where all non-title teams are playoff-ineligible
Divisional races:
AFC East: The Patriots hold a two-game lead. They gain the crown if they win OR if the Dolphins lose
AFC North: The Bengals lost a game on their lead, opening the door for Baltimore. The Ravens need to win out, and hope the Bengals lose both of their remaining games. A win by Cincy assures them the title, thanks to their unbeaten divisional record
AFC West: San Diego won it
NFC East: The only NFC division still in contention. Philly has a game over Dallas and two over New York. An Eagles win this weekend locks it up.
Playoff races:
AFC - Baltimore and Denver hold a one-game lead over everyone else. A win by either one practically seals it. Jacksonville is the 7-7 team in best position, as they have the best in-conference record. Miami is in good position, too.
NFC - Dallas and Green Bay are in the best position. A win by Green Bay gives them the wildcard position. Dallas needs a Giants loss, as the tiebreaker would go to New York. Atlanta is still mathematically eligible, but they need A LOT of help!
Tampa Bay won, leaving just the hapless Rams with a single victory. It looks like the Rams will gain the first pick in the draft.
Division titles are getting locked up, as three of them were awarded this week. Only three divisions remain contested, although each could be awarded this week. The wildcard race is still open, with eight potential AFC teams. The NFC is a bit less open, with only four non-divisional leading candidates remaining. I'll add wildcard considerations to this week's blog, after the division title races section.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (14-0) [1] : the sole remaining unbeaten team!
2. New Orleans Saints (13-1) [2] : The Saints haven't yet secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-3) [3] : The Vikings haven't yet guaranteed themselves a first week bye
4. San Diego Chargers (11-3) [4] : The Chargers HAVE secured a first week bye, as they are the AFC Second seed
5. New England Patriots (9-5) [8] : The Pats won they needed to
6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) [6] : Strong win, but still battling Dallas for the division title
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5) [5] : The Steelers ended their losing streak with a last second touchdown
8. Dallas Cowboys (9-5) [11] : The Cowboys did something no other team has done - beat the Saints. Could they face them again in the playoffs?
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-6) [9] : Two huge victories in a row are shrinking the gap between them and the top of the league
10. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) [7] : They still lead the division, but their non-division performance makes their playoff situation questionable
11. Arizona Cardinals (9-5) [14] : Lowest ranked division winner, mainly because the rest of the division has been knocked out of the playoffs - the only division with that distinction at this moment
12. New York Jets (7-7) [10] : Best defense in the league, but the offense continues to sputter
13. Denver Broncos (8-6) [11] : Tough loss to Oakland
14. New York Giants (8-6) [15] : One of their best offensive performances of the season
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) [21] : They preserved their playoff chances with a shocking last second upset of Green Bay
16. Houston Texans (7-7) [17] : Still in playoff contention, although a lousy divisional record won't help them
17. San Francisco 49ers (6-8) [12]
18. Atlanta Falcons (7-7) [20] : Atlanta beat the Jets despite missing their two best offensive players
19. Tennessee Titans (7-7) [19]
20. Miami Dolphins (7-7) [16]
21. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7) [19]
22. Carolina Panthers (6-8) [24] : The Panthers stung the Vikings. They may be out of the playoff race, but they still want to make matters difficult for opponents
23. Chicago Bears (5-9) [22]
24. Buffalo Bills (5-9) [23]
25. Washington Redskins (4-10) [25]
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-9) [26]
27. Oakland Raiders (5-9) [27]
28. Cleveland Browns (4-10) [29]
29. Kansas City Chiefs (3-11) [28]
30. Tampa Bay Bucs (2-12) [31]
31. Detroit Lions (2-12) [30]
32. St Louis Rams (1-13) [32]
Biggest gainer - Pittsburgh Steelers: Their last second touchdown ended their losing streak and propelled them back into the playoff hunt
Biggest sack - San Francisco 49ers: Their vaulted defense didn't look too good against the Eagles
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [2] : Two Top Ten teams, nobody dropping in strength, and a still tight divisional race makes this an interesting division
2. AFC South [1] : Everyone is still playoff eligible - no other division can say that
3. AFC East [3] : Despite drops by everyone but New England, this division still remains tightly in the hunt
4. AFC North [5] : Two Top Ten teams and a tightly contested divisional crown makes things interesting, but it was Pittsburgh's performance that really pushed them up
5. NFC North [4] : Wither the division, although Green Bay remains in the playoff hunt
6. NFC South [7] : Everyone moved up except for the Saints, and the Falcons remain strong despite key injuries
7. AFC West [6] : Denver remains a top wildcard contender, but this division is showing cracks
8. NFC West [8] : The only division where all non-title teams are playoff-ineligible
Divisional races:
AFC East: The Patriots hold a two-game lead. They gain the crown if they win OR if the Dolphins lose
AFC North: The Bengals lost a game on their lead, opening the door for Baltimore. The Ravens need to win out, and hope the Bengals lose both of their remaining games. A win by Cincy assures them the title, thanks to their unbeaten divisional record
AFC West: San Diego won it
NFC East: The only NFC division still in contention. Philly has a game over Dallas and two over New York. An Eagles win this weekend locks it up.
Playoff races:
AFC - Baltimore and Denver hold a one-game lead over everyone else. A win by either one practically seals it. Jacksonville is the 7-7 team in best position, as they have the best in-conference record. Miami is in good position, too.
NFC - Dallas and Green Bay are in the best position. A win by Green Bay gives them the wildcard position. Dallas needs a Giants loss, as the tiebreaker would go to New York. Atlanta is still mathematically eligible, but they need A LOT of help!
Friday, December 18, 2009
NFL Week 15 picks
Whoops! While following the Colts game last night, I realized that I forgot to post my picks for the week. Me bad! Here are the rest of them:
Saturday - Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: The 'Boys play too inconsistently for me to believe they will give the Saints their first loss of the season. The Saints offense will pound the battered Dallas defense, proving too much for the Cowboys. SAINTS, 37-23
Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: The Cards get a chance to seal the division with a trip to Detroit. The Lions offense is so atrocious, they may not need their defense to win this one for them. CARDS, 31-13
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets: The Falcons offense will be missing their two biggest stars: QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner. Chris Redmond has been playing well in relief of Ryan, but without a strong backfield, this becomes a pass-oriented team, and the Jets secondary is pretty good. JETS, 17-10
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams are battered and suffering injuries at key positions, but the real difference will be the Ravens defense. They will pester Cutler all day, and we know that's when he forces plays and causes turnovers. RAVENS, 19-13
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: Believe it or not, I'm actually picking the Browns! They've shown spunk and flashes of competence the past few weeks, while the Chiefs have looked inept. The Browns worries aren't over, and the front office is shopping for a new coach, but this win will at least appease the fans for a while. BROWNS, 21-16
Houston Texans at St Louis Rams: Houston remains in the playoff hunt with a strong victory over the pathetic Rams. TEXANS, 28-10
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: Vince Young has found new life and purpose as a quarterback, and has given Titans fans at least a glimmer of hope for the postseason. I don't think the wildcat will be too much trouble for the Titans defense - they've seen versions of it in practice. TITANS, 23-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots look to maintain their one-game lead in the division, but they need to overcome a dismal 1-5 road record. Of course, the Bills are practically the weakest team they've forced on the road, so that should help. PATS, 20-10
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: This will be a defensive battle, but I think the Eagles have just enough firepower to overcome the smothering 49ers defense. EAGLES, 13-6
Sunday late games:
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: This should be exciting, as two AFC division leaders square off! San Diego can capture their division crown with a win, while the Bengals would need Chicago to pull off the upset. I think the Chargers will be charged up for this game, knowing that the division title (and a probable playoff bye week) is at stake. CHARGERS, 24-17
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers: If the Steelers can get it together, they can win this game. However, I think the Pack will gain the victory. A win here, after all, clinches the playoffs for the Pack and keeps them in contention for the division, at least until Minnesota plays that night. PACK, 24-13
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver wants to stay in the playoff hunt, so this win is important. They should gain it, as the Raiders have struggled against divisional opponents this season. The Broncos have gone 2-1 since ending their losing streak, and they have their poise and rhythm back. BRONCOS, 20-9
Tampa Bay Bucs at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is a team in the midst of some chaos, but they have been able to give the home crowd some impressive victories this season. Throw in the terrible defensive play of the Bucs recently, and you have the recipe for some holiday goodies for Seahawks fans. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday evening - Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is one team who has played better on the road this year than at home. The Panthers are also banged up, making them vulnerable in some key positions. That provides the perfect mix for the Vikings to have a tremendous game and capture the division title. VIKINGS, 31-20
Monday Night Football - New York Giants at Washington Redskins: The Redskins have actually done a decent job of defending their home this season, but they are yet to beat a divisional opponent. I don't see the Giants being the first, especially since a likely Dallas loss will put them in better playoff position. GIANTS, 24-16
Saturday - Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: The 'Boys play too inconsistently for me to believe they will give the Saints their first loss of the season. The Saints offense will pound the battered Dallas defense, proving too much for the Cowboys. SAINTS, 37-23
Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: The Cards get a chance to seal the division with a trip to Detroit. The Lions offense is so atrocious, they may not need their defense to win this one for them. CARDS, 31-13
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets: The Falcons offense will be missing their two biggest stars: QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner. Chris Redmond has been playing well in relief of Ryan, but without a strong backfield, this becomes a pass-oriented team, and the Jets secondary is pretty good. JETS, 17-10
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams are battered and suffering injuries at key positions, but the real difference will be the Ravens defense. They will pester Cutler all day, and we know that's when he forces plays and causes turnovers. RAVENS, 19-13
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: Believe it or not, I'm actually picking the Browns! They've shown spunk and flashes of competence the past few weeks, while the Chiefs have looked inept. The Browns worries aren't over, and the front office is shopping for a new coach, but this win will at least appease the fans for a while. BROWNS, 21-16
Houston Texans at St Louis Rams: Houston remains in the playoff hunt with a strong victory over the pathetic Rams. TEXANS, 28-10
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: Vince Young has found new life and purpose as a quarterback, and has given Titans fans at least a glimmer of hope for the postseason. I don't think the wildcat will be too much trouble for the Titans defense - they've seen versions of it in practice. TITANS, 23-20
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The Patriots look to maintain their one-game lead in the division, but they need to overcome a dismal 1-5 road record. Of course, the Bills are practically the weakest team they've forced on the road, so that should help. PATS, 20-10
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: This will be a defensive battle, but I think the Eagles have just enough firepower to overcome the smothering 49ers defense. EAGLES, 13-6
Sunday late games:
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: This should be exciting, as two AFC division leaders square off! San Diego can capture their division crown with a win, while the Bengals would need Chicago to pull off the upset. I think the Chargers will be charged up for this game, knowing that the division title (and a probable playoff bye week) is at stake. CHARGERS, 24-17
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers: If the Steelers can get it together, they can win this game. However, I think the Pack will gain the victory. A win here, after all, clinches the playoffs for the Pack and keeps them in contention for the division, at least until Minnesota plays that night. PACK, 24-13
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Denver wants to stay in the playoff hunt, so this win is important. They should gain it, as the Raiders have struggled against divisional opponents this season. The Broncos have gone 2-1 since ending their losing streak, and they have their poise and rhythm back. BRONCOS, 20-9
Tampa Bay Bucs at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle is a team in the midst of some chaos, but they have been able to give the home crowd some impressive victories this season. Throw in the terrible defensive play of the Bucs recently, and you have the recipe for some holiday goodies for Seahawks fans. SEAHAWKS, 23-13
Sunday evening - Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: Carolina is one team who has played better on the road this year than at home. The Panthers are also banged up, making them vulnerable in some key positions. That provides the perfect mix for the Vikings to have a tremendous game and capture the division title. VIKINGS, 31-20
Monday Night Football - New York Giants at Washington Redskins: The Redskins have actually done a decent job of defending their home this season, but they are yet to beat a divisional opponent. I don't see the Giants being the first, especially since a likely Dallas loss will put them in better playoff position. GIANTS, 24-16
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
NFL Power Rankings - Week 14
We still have two unbeaten teams. Can anyone beat Indy or New Orleans? The Saints have struggled the past two weeks but pulled it out. Can they do that against Dallas on Saturday?
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-0) [1]
2. New Orleans Saints (13-0) [2]
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) [3]
4. San Diego Chargers (10-3) [5] : Impressive win over Dallas nearly confirms that they win the AFC West
5. Green Bay Packers (9-4) [6] : The Bears didn't make it easy, but they won. They're still chasing Minnesota for the division title
6. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [7] : Solidified a one-game lead in the division, and they hold the tiebreaker edge
7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) [4] : Despite the loss, they still have a strong hold on the division title
8. New England Patriots (8-5) [9] : Offense still off, especially Randy Moss, but nice defensive performance
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-6) [12] : HUGE defeat of the Lions
10. New York Jets (7-6) [13]
11. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) [8] : They hung in there against the Chargers
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-7) [16] : They ran where Adrian Peterson couldn't
13. Denver Broncos (8-5) [11]
14. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) [10] : Defense is starting to sputter
15. New York Giants (7-6) [15]
16. Miami Dolphins (7-6) [19]
17. Houston Texans (6-7) [18]
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6) [17] : Looking bleak, and they play Indy this week
19. Tennessee Titans (6-7) [22]
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) [21] : Hey, look at Chris Redmond work!
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) [14] : Looking bleak for the defending Super Bowl champs
22. Chicago Bears (5-8) [23] : Tough loss to Green Bay
23. Buffalo Bills (5-8) [26]
24. Carolina Panthers (5-8) [24]
25. Washington Redskins (4-9) [27] : Dominant game against Oakland
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-8) [20]
27. Oakland Raiders (4-9) [25]
28. Cleveland Browns (3-10) [30] : Beating Pittsburgh may be the highlight of their season
29. Kansas City Chiefs (3-10) [28]
30. Detroit Lions (2-11) [29]
31. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-12) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-12) [32]
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC South [2] : Excellent performances from everyone except Jacksonville
2. NFC East [1] : Not a good week for most of them; lost a Top Ten ranking
3. AFC East [5] : HUGE week for this division!
4. NFC North [4]
5. AFC North [3] : The Steelers are really bringing this division down. Two teams in the Top Ten yet they fall two places
6. AFC West [6]
7. NFC South [7] : New Orleans is turning into the only bright spot, and likely the only playoff team
8. NFC West [8] : Not even Arizona can save this division
Division races
AFC East : The Patriots maintain their one-game lead, but this is still a fierce battle
AFC North : Cincy has a two-game lead and that unbeaten divisional record. One more win, or a loss by the Ravens, and the Bengals win it. Pitt is now out of the race.
AFC South : Indy won it
AFC West : San Diego holds a two-game lead and tiebreaker position. One more win, or a loss by Denver, seals the victory for San Diego; two wins give them second seed and the bye week.
NFC East : Philly holds a one-game lead and tiebreaker position. An Eagles win AND a Cowboys loss awards the division to the Eagles
NFC North : The Vikes hold a two-game lead over Green Bay, but no tiebreaker yet. The Vikes need a win AND a Pack loss this week, or they must wait a week to see.
NFC South : The Saints won it
NFC West : Arizona holds a two-game lead over San Francisco (the only other contender). They need a win AND a 49er loss to get the title
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-0) [1]
2. New Orleans Saints (13-0) [2]
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-2) [3]
4. San Diego Chargers (10-3) [5] : Impressive win over Dallas nearly confirms that they win the AFC West
5. Green Bay Packers (9-4) [6] : The Bears didn't make it easy, but they won. They're still chasing Minnesota for the division title
6. Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) [7] : Solidified a one-game lead in the division, and they hold the tiebreaker edge
7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) [4] : Despite the loss, they still have a strong hold on the division title
8. New England Patriots (8-5) [9] : Offense still off, especially Randy Moss, but nice defensive performance
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-6) [12] : HUGE defeat of the Lions
10. New York Jets (7-6) [13]
11. Dallas Cowboys (8-5) [8] : They hung in there against the Chargers
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-7) [16] : They ran where Adrian Peterson couldn't
13. Denver Broncos (8-5) [11]
14. Arizona Cardinals (8-5) [10] : Defense is starting to sputter
15. New York Giants (7-6) [15]
16. Miami Dolphins (7-6) [19]
17. Houston Texans (6-7) [18]
18. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6) [17] : Looking bleak, and they play Indy this week
19. Tennessee Titans (6-7) [22]
20. Atlanta Falcons (6-7) [21] : Hey, look at Chris Redmond work!
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-7) [14] : Looking bleak for the defending Super Bowl champs
22. Chicago Bears (5-8) [23] : Tough loss to Green Bay
23. Buffalo Bills (5-8) [26]
24. Carolina Panthers (5-8) [24]
25. Washington Redskins (4-9) [27] : Dominant game against Oakland
26. Seattle Seahawks (5-8) [20]
27. Oakland Raiders (4-9) [25]
28. Cleveland Browns (3-10) [30] : Beating Pittsburgh may be the highlight of their season
29. Kansas City Chiefs (3-10) [28]
30. Detroit Lions (2-11) [29]
31. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-12) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-12) [32]
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. AFC South [2] : Excellent performances from everyone except Jacksonville
2. NFC East [1] : Not a good week for most of them; lost a Top Ten ranking
3. AFC East [5] : HUGE week for this division!
4. NFC North [4]
5. AFC North [3] : The Steelers are really bringing this division down. Two teams in the Top Ten yet they fall two places
6. AFC West [6]
7. NFC South [7] : New Orleans is turning into the only bright spot, and likely the only playoff team
8. NFC West [8] : Not even Arizona can save this division
Division races
AFC East : The Patriots maintain their one-game lead, but this is still a fierce battle
AFC North : Cincy has a two-game lead and that unbeaten divisional record. One more win, or a loss by the Ravens, and the Bengals win it. Pitt is now out of the race.
AFC South : Indy won it
AFC West : San Diego holds a two-game lead and tiebreaker position. One more win, or a loss by Denver, seals the victory for San Diego; two wins give them second seed and the bye week.
NFC East : Philly holds a one-game lead and tiebreaker position. An Eagles win AND a Cowboys loss awards the division to the Eagles
NFC North : The Vikes hold a two-game lead over Green Bay, but no tiebreaker yet. The Vikes need a win AND a Pack loss this week, or they must wait a week to see.
NFC South : The Saints won it
NFC West : Arizona holds a two-game lead over San Francisco (the only other contender). They need a win AND a 49er loss to get the title
Monday, December 14, 2009
NCAA Bowls 2009 - Dec 19 thru Dec 30
Before we start, let me pick a game I saw on ESPN's website, but cannot verify anywhere else. Apparently, someone recognized the success of Temple's season, and matched them with a competitor. Temple is playing UCLA somewhere; while the Bruins are more experienced in bowl games, I like the Owls chances. More and more first time bowlers, or teams who haven't been to a bowl in a long time, are winning the smaller bowls. Let's hear it for the Temple Owls, and root for their success.
Now to the widely advertised bowls:
Saturday, Dec 19th
New Mexico Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs v Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys have been too inconsistent this season. Fresno State faced some tough opponents, and played them close enough that we know they have good stuff. Those teams tend to shine in bowls. FRESNO STATE
St Petersburg Bowl - Central Florida Golden Knights v Rutgers Scarlet Knights: I'd love to pick Rutgers. They fight hard, and the Golden Knights have been susceptible to being overpowered. However, I think the home crowd will provide a boost to the Golden Knights. The Scarlet Knights have been a fierce road team, though, so they'll keep this game close, and could pull off the victory. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Sunday Dec 20th - New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Let's face it, the Sun Belt teams don't have a good record in bowl games. They just don't play tough enough competition during the season to prepare for tougher teams. Southern Miss may be Conference USA, but they've faced much tougher competition. SOUTHERN MISS
Tuesday Dec 22nd - Las Vegas Bowl - Oregon State Beavers v #11 BYU Cougars: The Beavers get up for Pac-10 opponents, but they have trouble beating ranked teams from outside the conference. I don't think they can slow down the BYU offense, and they won't be able to keep up. BYU
Wed Dec 23rd - Poinsettia Bowl - #17 Utah Utes v California Golden Bears: The second consecutive bowl pitting the Pac-10 against the Mountain West, and I favor the smaller conference again. The BCS is considering giving the Mountain West winner an automatic bid in the future, and all five bowl teams are determined to prove their worth in an effort to build support for that decision. Utah has been very competitive in their bowl games, and they should be so again this year. UTAH
Thurs Dec 24th - Hawaii Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack v SMU Mustangs: I'd love to see SMU win, as they rarely reach a bowl game. However, the Wolfpack have been a strong team throughout the year, and they pressured some very talented teams. They should do well in this bowl. They're also less likely to be distracted by the locale - they play Hawaii every year. NEVADA
Sat Dec 26th
Little Caesars Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd v Ohio Bobcats: The MAC has been tough this season, so Ohio has been battle-hardened for this game. Heck, they played in the MAC title game! Marshall played well, but they were only a mediocre team in the Conference USA. OHIO
Meineke Car Care Bowl - #16 Pittsburgh Panthers v North Carolina Tar Heels: Pitt almost won the Big East! Their defense couldn't hold back Cincinnati, but I think they can hold back North Carolina. PITT
Emerald Bowl - Boston College Eagles v USC Trojans: USC plays tough in bowl games, but they've been in BCS games for the past six years. Will they be disappointed to relegated to a minor bowl like this? If so, BC is capable of knocking them off. The Trojans are used to the Hollywood-type high life; this bowl will be a disappointment. I don't think they'll take it too seriously, allowing BC to knock them around. BOSTON COLLEGE
Sunday Dec 27th - Music City Bowl - Kentucky Wildcats v Clemson Tigers: Kentucky's season was somewhat disappointing, while Clemson battled for the ACC title. This game won't be pretty, as we may have the first real blowout of the bowls. CLEMSON
Monday Dec 28th - Independence Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies v Georgia Bulldogs: The Aggies played some stiff competition, but I can't ignore how tough the Bulldogs played Georgia Tech at the end of the season. If they show that same level of spunk in this game, they can't lose. GEORGIA
Tues Dec 29th - Champs Sports Bowl - #22 Miami Hurricanes v #21 Wisconsin Badgers: Both were unbeaten in non-conference play, but Wisconsin won bigger, against tougher opponents. As highly as the national press lauded Miami this season, I can't get over the fact that they had a negative point spread against FBS teams midway in the season. WISCONSIN
Wed Dec 30th
Humanitarian Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons v Idaho Vandals: The Falcons have the bowl experience, but the Vandals have the home crowd on their side. That may not bother Bowling Green - they were four of six in road games this season - but it'll really boost the Vandals. Idaho is not used to playing in a bowl game, but the home crowd will help remove that feel, and make it seem like a regular home game. That might be enough to boost Idaho to a rare bowl win. IDAHO
Holiday Bowl - Arizona Wildcats at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Arizona closed their season by upsetting USC, but that was clearly the highlight of their season. The Wildcats had some good wins, and closed the season stronger than they began, but I don't know if they were consistently strong. Nebraska had strong victories this season, against strong teams. That seems convincing to me. NEBRASKA
Now to the widely advertised bowls:
Saturday, Dec 19th
New Mexico Bowl - Fresno State Bulldogs v Wyoming Cowboys: The Cowboys have been too inconsistent this season. Fresno State faced some tough opponents, and played them close enough that we know they have good stuff. Those teams tend to shine in bowls. FRESNO STATE
St Petersburg Bowl - Central Florida Golden Knights v Rutgers Scarlet Knights: I'd love to pick Rutgers. They fight hard, and the Golden Knights have been susceptible to being overpowered. However, I think the home crowd will provide a boost to the Golden Knights. The Scarlet Knights have been a fierce road team, though, so they'll keep this game close, and could pull off the victory. CENTRAL FLORIDA
Sunday Dec 20th - New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: Let's face it, the Sun Belt teams don't have a good record in bowl games. They just don't play tough enough competition during the season to prepare for tougher teams. Southern Miss may be Conference USA, but they've faced much tougher competition. SOUTHERN MISS
Tuesday Dec 22nd - Las Vegas Bowl - Oregon State Beavers v #11 BYU Cougars: The Beavers get up for Pac-10 opponents, but they have trouble beating ranked teams from outside the conference. I don't think they can slow down the BYU offense, and they won't be able to keep up. BYU
Wed Dec 23rd - Poinsettia Bowl - #17 Utah Utes v California Golden Bears: The second consecutive bowl pitting the Pac-10 against the Mountain West, and I favor the smaller conference again. The BCS is considering giving the Mountain West winner an automatic bid in the future, and all five bowl teams are determined to prove their worth in an effort to build support for that decision. Utah has been very competitive in their bowl games, and they should be so again this year. UTAH
Thurs Dec 24th - Hawaii Bowl - Nevada Wolfpack v SMU Mustangs: I'd love to see SMU win, as they rarely reach a bowl game. However, the Wolfpack have been a strong team throughout the year, and they pressured some very talented teams. They should do well in this bowl. They're also less likely to be distracted by the locale - they play Hawaii every year. NEVADA
Sat Dec 26th
Little Caesars Bowl - Marshall Thundering Herd v Ohio Bobcats: The MAC has been tough this season, so Ohio has been battle-hardened for this game. Heck, they played in the MAC title game! Marshall played well, but they were only a mediocre team in the Conference USA. OHIO
Meineke Car Care Bowl - #16 Pittsburgh Panthers v North Carolina Tar Heels: Pitt almost won the Big East! Their defense couldn't hold back Cincinnati, but I think they can hold back North Carolina. PITT
Emerald Bowl - Boston College Eagles v USC Trojans: USC plays tough in bowl games, but they've been in BCS games for the past six years. Will they be disappointed to relegated to a minor bowl like this? If so, BC is capable of knocking them off. The Trojans are used to the Hollywood-type high life; this bowl will be a disappointment. I don't think they'll take it too seriously, allowing BC to knock them around. BOSTON COLLEGE
Sunday Dec 27th - Music City Bowl - Kentucky Wildcats v Clemson Tigers: Kentucky's season was somewhat disappointing, while Clemson battled for the ACC title. This game won't be pretty, as we may have the first real blowout of the bowls. CLEMSON
Monday Dec 28th - Independence Bowl - Texas A&M Aggies v Georgia Bulldogs: The Aggies played some stiff competition, but I can't ignore how tough the Bulldogs played Georgia Tech at the end of the season. If they show that same level of spunk in this game, they can't lose. GEORGIA
Tues Dec 29th - Champs Sports Bowl - #22 Miami Hurricanes v #21 Wisconsin Badgers: Both were unbeaten in non-conference play, but Wisconsin won bigger, against tougher opponents. As highly as the national press lauded Miami this season, I can't get over the fact that they had a negative point spread against FBS teams midway in the season. WISCONSIN
Wed Dec 30th
Humanitarian Bowl - Bowling Green Falcons v Idaho Vandals: The Falcons have the bowl experience, but the Vandals have the home crowd on their side. That may not bother Bowling Green - they were four of six in road games this season - but it'll really boost the Vandals. Idaho is not used to playing in a bowl game, but the home crowd will help remove that feel, and make it seem like a regular home game. That might be enough to boost Idaho to a rare bowl win. IDAHO
Holiday Bowl - Arizona Wildcats at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers: Arizona closed their season by upsetting USC, but that was clearly the highlight of their season. The Wildcats had some good wins, and closed the season stronger than they began, but I don't know if they were consistently strong. Nebraska had strong victories this season, against strong teams. That seems convincing to me. NEBRASKA
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
NFL Week 14 picks
Cincy could clinch a division and some wildcard potentials are at stake. This is the home stretch of the season, where every game counts.
Thursday - Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Well, for heaven's sake, given the problems of the Browns, the Steelers SHOULD be able to end their losing streak. Even without Troy Polamanu, the defense should frustrate Cleveland. STEELERS, 23-10
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Both of these teams are struggling, but the Chiefs have more problems. They seem confused on both offense and defense, while the Bills woes are dropped passes and turnovers. At least the Bills might get some of their problems ironed out. BILLS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots: This should be a good chance for New England to reverse their slide, as the Panthers are hurting. However, Carolina can still be dangerous, so this will be another uncomfortably close game. PATS, 20-16
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings: Ooh, this should be interesting! The Bengals defense is tough, and could give the Vikings fits. Cincy is looking to clinch the AFC North title, and they'll know (based upon Thursday's result) if they need this win to do it. They will battle hard. I think Minnesota will have the ball late in the game with a slight lead, and look to run down the clock. If they can, and don't turn over the ball, they can win. If they give Cincy the chance to get into field goal range, they're in trouble. VIKINGS, 27-26
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: This game will test just how improved the Broncos are! Again, I think this will be a close game, which Indy has favored this year. If Denver can get into field goal late in the game, they might give the Colts their first loss of the season. COLTS, 22-20
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore will strive to keep their playoff hopes alive as their defense shuts down the Lions. RAVENS, 17-6
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: The Pack want revenge for earlier in the season, when the Bears came into Lambeau and beat the Packers. With the problems the Bears are having, both on offense and defense, they should be able to do that. PACK, 27-13
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: Here's an interesting match-up. The Jags would seem to be favored due to their record, but they have allowed more points than they've scored. While Miami has done so as well, their margin is much smaller. I actually think Miami's wildcat offense might get past the Jack Del Rio defense. If the Jags do figure out a means to beat it at halftime, though, the Jags could come back to win in the fourth. DOLPHINS, 23-20
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons seem to be on the skids. If they reverse that, they can challenge New Orleans, but I think the Saints will remain perfect and knock the Falcons nearly out of the playoff picture. SAINTS, 34-14
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Jets may be getting back on track, as Mark Sanchez gains an understanding of NFL defenses. The Bucs are shot. JETS, 27-13
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: Seattle's offense is too inconsistent to get past a decent defense like that of the Texans. TEXANS, 20-16
Sunday late games:
San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys: Both teams have division title consequences. The Chargers want to remain ahead of the Broncos, while the Cowboys need to win to try to regain the lead. This will be a hard-fought game, but I like the offense of the Chargers. This is an efficient and working offense. Dallas makes too many mistakes and drops too many passes to compete effectively with a good offense. CHARGERS, 28-23
St Louis Rams at Tennessee Titans: Geez, it's the Rams. No contest. TITANS, 26-6
Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: Could Bruce Gradkowski be turning around the Raiders? It looks like it. The Redskins have been massive underachievers for most of the year, only getting up for stiff competition. Despite the Raiders' victory over Pittsburgh last week, they aren't viewed as a strong contender, so the Redskins won't be ready. RAIDERS, 16-10
Sunday evening - Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: This NFC East contest has major divisional title implications. The winner could hold tiebreaker advantage over the other in this tight divisional race. The Eagles are on a tear right now, and offensively flying. The Giants defense is still struggling, so I like the Eagles to win in an offensive battle. EAGLES, 34-27
Monday Night Football - Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The NFC West title could be on the line, especially if Seattle loses to Houston. San Francisco's defense is good, but their offense has been spotty. I like what Kurt Warner and company can do, and they no longer get frustrated and force plays if they've had some "three and out" drives. That patience will pay off. CARDS, 23-16
Thursday - Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Well, for heaven's sake, given the problems of the Browns, the Steelers SHOULD be able to end their losing streak. Even without Troy Polamanu, the defense should frustrate Cleveland. STEELERS, 23-10
Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Both of these teams are struggling, but the Chiefs have more problems. They seem confused on both offense and defense, while the Bills woes are dropped passes and turnovers. At least the Bills might get some of their problems ironed out. BILLS, 23-20
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots: This should be a good chance for New England to reverse their slide, as the Panthers are hurting. However, Carolina can still be dangerous, so this will be another uncomfortably close game. PATS, 20-16
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings: Ooh, this should be interesting! The Bengals defense is tough, and could give the Vikings fits. Cincy is looking to clinch the AFC North title, and they'll know (based upon Thursday's result) if they need this win to do it. They will battle hard. I think Minnesota will have the ball late in the game with a slight lead, and look to run down the clock. If they can, and don't turn over the ball, they can win. If they give Cincy the chance to get into field goal range, they're in trouble. VIKINGS, 27-26
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: This game will test just how improved the Broncos are! Again, I think this will be a close game, which Indy has favored this year. If Denver can get into field goal late in the game, they might give the Colts their first loss of the season. COLTS, 22-20
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore will strive to keep their playoff hopes alive as their defense shuts down the Lions. RAVENS, 17-6
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: The Pack want revenge for earlier in the season, when the Bears came into Lambeau and beat the Packers. With the problems the Bears are having, both on offense and defense, they should be able to do that. PACK, 27-13
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: Here's an interesting match-up. The Jags would seem to be favored due to their record, but they have allowed more points than they've scored. While Miami has done so as well, their margin is much smaller. I actually think Miami's wildcat offense might get past the Jack Del Rio defense. If the Jags do figure out a means to beat it at halftime, though, the Jags could come back to win in the fourth. DOLPHINS, 23-20
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons seem to be on the skids. If they reverse that, they can challenge New Orleans, but I think the Saints will remain perfect and knock the Falcons nearly out of the playoff picture. SAINTS, 34-14
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Jets may be getting back on track, as Mark Sanchez gains an understanding of NFL defenses. The Bucs are shot. JETS, 27-13
Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans: Seattle's offense is too inconsistent to get past a decent defense like that of the Texans. TEXANS, 20-16
Sunday late games:
San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys: Both teams have division title consequences. The Chargers want to remain ahead of the Broncos, while the Cowboys need to win to try to regain the lead. This will be a hard-fought game, but I like the offense of the Chargers. This is an efficient and working offense. Dallas makes too many mistakes and drops too many passes to compete effectively with a good offense. CHARGERS, 28-23
St Louis Rams at Tennessee Titans: Geez, it's the Rams. No contest. TITANS, 26-6
Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: Could Bruce Gradkowski be turning around the Raiders? It looks like it. The Redskins have been massive underachievers for most of the year, only getting up for stiff competition. Despite the Raiders' victory over Pittsburgh last week, they aren't viewed as a strong contender, so the Redskins won't be ready. RAIDERS, 16-10
Sunday evening - Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: This NFC East contest has major divisional title implications. The winner could hold tiebreaker advantage over the other in this tight divisional race. The Eagles are on a tear right now, and offensively flying. The Giants defense is still struggling, so I like the Eagles to win in an offensive battle. EAGLES, 34-27
Monday Night Football - Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: The NFC West title could be on the line, especially if Seattle loses to Houston. San Francisco's defense is good, but their offense has been spotty. I like what Kurt Warner and company can do, and they no longer get frustrated and force plays if they've had some "three and out" drives. That patience will pay off. CARDS, 23-16
NFL Power Rankings - Week 13
We had some interesting upsets, but there wasn't as much position movement as you'd expect. The gap between the top teams and the others is very large. New Orleans need overtime to remain unbeaten, but their perfect season continues. Both unbeatens may face challenges this week.
This week's rankings [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-0) [2] : They easily maintained their perfect record, vaulting over the Saints
2. New Orleans Saints (12-0) [1] : They needed overtime to win
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-2) [3] : They lost, but had such a large gap over the teams below them
4. Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) [9] : The Bengals clinch the AFC North with a win, thanks to their unbeaten divisional record, and look to lock the second seed in the AFC
5. San Diego Chargers (9-3) [5] : The team who could give Cincy a battle for second seed, the Chargers want that bye week
6. Green Bay Packers (8-4) [6] : Nice win over the Ravens, the Pack sneak closer to the division-leading Vikings
7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) [8]: The Eagles are happy that the Giants beat Dallas, and a commanding defeat of Atlanta makes them one of the most dangerous teams right now
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) [4] : They lost their lead in the NFC East, and their defense needs to regroup
9. New England Patriots (7-5) [7] : Another close loss - something's wrong in Boston
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-4) [10] : Strong victory over Minnesota gives them breathing room over the 49ers for the division title
11. Denver Broncos (8-4) [13] : They're coming back to life
12. Baltimore Ravens (6-6) [11] : Their playoff hopes are dwindling
13. New York Jets (6-6) [17] : Chasing the struggling Patriots for the division title
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) [12] : Three consecutive losses puts the defending Super Bowl champs in grave danger of missing the playoffs
15. New York Giants (7-5) [20] : Stunning victory over Dallas keeps them in the playoff hunt
16. San Francisco 49ers (5-7) [15] : They're losing pace on both the division title and the playoffs
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) [19]
18. Houston Texans (5-7) [18]
19. Miami Dolphins (6-6) [23] : Hotly in the hunt to replace New England atop the division
20. Seattle Seahawks (5-7) [22] : Making a late rush for the playoffs
21. Atlanta Falcons (6-6) [14] : Horrible loss against Philly - they couldn't go anything!
22. Tennessee Titans (5-7) [16] : The winning streak is over
23. Chicago Bears (5-7) [24]
24. Carolina Panthers (5-7) [25]
25. Oakland Raiders (4-8) [28] : Solid victory over the Steelers keeps Oakland mathematically eligible for the playoffs
26. Buffalo Bills (4-8) [21] : Looking bad for the Bills
27. Washington Redskins (3-9) [27] : Now we start the list of teams eliminated from playoff contention
28. Kansas City Chiefs (3-9) [26]
29. Detroit Lions (2-10) [29]
30. Cleveland Browns (2-10) [31] : Hey, where was that offense all season long?
31. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-11) [30]
32. St Louis Rams (1-11) [32]
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [2] : The division race is heating up with two teams in the Top Ten
2. AFC South [1] : Tennessee's fall hurts the division
3. AFC North [3] : Baltimore and Pittsburgh are sliding, and so might this division
4. NFC North [4] : Two teams in the Top Ten support the division
5. AFC East [5] : Another tight division race, but only one team has a winning record
6. AFC West [7] : With Oakland's improvement, could the division follow?
7. NFC South [6] : Atlanta's fall leaves the unbeaten Saints as the only team with a winning record
8. NFC West [8] : This division is becoming uninteresting
Divisional races:
AFC East: Very tight race. Too much can still happen in four weeks. New England leads by a game, but their recent problems put that in jeopardy.
AFC North: Cincy holds the tiebreaker over everyone with their unbeaten divisional record. One more win, or losses by both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, hands the division title to the Bengals
AFC South: Already won by Indianapolis
AFC West: The Chargers lead by one game, and hold the tiebreaker against Denver.
NFC East: Philly and Dallas are tied, with the Giants only a game back. Like the AFC East, this is a tight race.
NFC North: The Vikings hold a two-game lead over Green Bay. Nobody else has a shot at the title. Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Pack, so two more wins by Minnesota seals it.
NFC South: Already won by New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona leads by three games. They don't have a tiebreaker advantage over San Francisco, so the 49ers could still sneak in, but I doubt it.
Wildcards:
AFC: Denver and Jacksonville leads the pack, but the many 6-6 teams still have a shot. The 5-7 teams have an outside possibility, and even Oakland is still alive.
NFC: Green Bay and the NFC East runner-up hold the advantage. The Giants and Falcons still have a chance. The 5-7 teams are possibilities, but they can't afford to lose.
This week's rankings [Last week's position]
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-0) [2] : They easily maintained their perfect record, vaulting over the Saints
2. New Orleans Saints (12-0) [1] : They needed overtime to win
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-2) [3] : They lost, but had such a large gap over the teams below them
4. Cincinnati Bengals (9-3) [9] : The Bengals clinch the AFC North with a win, thanks to their unbeaten divisional record, and look to lock the second seed in the AFC
5. San Diego Chargers (9-3) [5] : The team who could give Cincy a battle for second seed, the Chargers want that bye week
6. Green Bay Packers (8-4) [6] : Nice win over the Ravens, the Pack sneak closer to the division-leading Vikings
7. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) [8]: The Eagles are happy that the Giants beat Dallas, and a commanding defeat of Atlanta makes them one of the most dangerous teams right now
8. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) [4] : They lost their lead in the NFC East, and their defense needs to regroup
9. New England Patriots (7-5) [7] : Another close loss - something's wrong in Boston
10. Arizona Cardinals (8-4) [10] : Strong victory over Minnesota gives them breathing room over the 49ers for the division title
11. Denver Broncos (8-4) [13] : They're coming back to life
12. Baltimore Ravens (6-6) [11] : Their playoff hopes are dwindling
13. New York Jets (6-6) [17] : Chasing the struggling Patriots for the division title
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) [12] : Three consecutive losses puts the defending Super Bowl champs in grave danger of missing the playoffs
15. New York Giants (7-5) [20] : Stunning victory over Dallas keeps them in the playoff hunt
16. San Francisco 49ers (5-7) [15] : They're losing pace on both the division title and the playoffs
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5) [19]
18. Houston Texans (5-7) [18]
19. Miami Dolphins (6-6) [23] : Hotly in the hunt to replace New England atop the division
20. Seattle Seahawks (5-7) [22] : Making a late rush for the playoffs
21. Atlanta Falcons (6-6) [14] : Horrible loss against Philly - they couldn't go anything!
22. Tennessee Titans (5-7) [16] : The winning streak is over
23. Chicago Bears (5-7) [24]
24. Carolina Panthers (5-7) [25]
25. Oakland Raiders (4-8) [28] : Solid victory over the Steelers keeps Oakland mathematically eligible for the playoffs
26. Buffalo Bills (4-8) [21] : Looking bad for the Bills
27. Washington Redskins (3-9) [27] : Now we start the list of teams eliminated from playoff contention
28. Kansas City Chiefs (3-9) [26]
29. Detroit Lions (2-10) [29]
30. Cleveland Browns (2-10) [31] : Hey, where was that offense all season long?
31. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-11) [30]
32. St Louis Rams (1-11) [32]
Division rankings [Last week's position]
1. NFC East [2] : The division race is heating up with two teams in the Top Ten
2. AFC South [1] : Tennessee's fall hurts the division
3. AFC North [3] : Baltimore and Pittsburgh are sliding, and so might this division
4. NFC North [4] : Two teams in the Top Ten support the division
5. AFC East [5] : Another tight division race, but only one team has a winning record
6. AFC West [7] : With Oakland's improvement, could the division follow?
7. NFC South [6] : Atlanta's fall leaves the unbeaten Saints as the only team with a winning record
8. NFC West [8] : This division is becoming uninteresting
Divisional races:
AFC East: Very tight race. Too much can still happen in four weeks. New England leads by a game, but their recent problems put that in jeopardy.
AFC North: Cincy holds the tiebreaker over everyone with their unbeaten divisional record. One more win, or losses by both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, hands the division title to the Bengals
AFC South: Already won by Indianapolis
AFC West: The Chargers lead by one game, and hold the tiebreaker against Denver.
NFC East: Philly and Dallas are tied, with the Giants only a game back. Like the AFC East, this is a tight race.
NFC North: The Vikings hold a two-game lead over Green Bay. Nobody else has a shot at the title. Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Pack, so two more wins by Minnesota seals it.
NFC South: Already won by New Orleans
NFC West: Arizona leads by three games. They don't have a tiebreaker advantage over San Francisco, so the 49ers could still sneak in, but I doubt it.
Wildcards:
AFC: Denver and Jacksonville leads the pack, but the many 6-6 teams still have a shot. The 5-7 teams have an outside possibility, and even Oakland is still alive.
NFC: Green Bay and the NFC East runner-up hold the advantage. The Giants and Falcons still have a chance. The 5-7 teams are possibilities, but they can't afford to lose.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
NCAA Top 25 - Pre-Bowls
Welcome to the last Top 25 before the bowl games. This encompasses the results of the conference championship games, which caused some shake-up in the rankings; they always do. One of them were considered for the Upset of the Week, as East Carolina outlasted Houston in an exciting Conference USA Championship to steal the title from the still-ranked Cougars. However, the biggest upset occurred outside the Top 25, as the Washington Huskies took revenge on a Cal Golden Bear squad who ran up the score against them last them, thrashing the Bears 42-10 and knocking the Bears out of a major bowl appearance.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [3] : The Tide regain the top spot with an impressive victory over the Florida Gators
2. Texas Longhorns (13-0) [1] : A last second field goal prevented an upset and sends the Longhorns to the BCS title game
3. Boise State Broncos (13-0) [5] : The Broncos played an extra game and vaulted over TCU, but we don't know if they'll get a BCS bowl game
4. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) [4] : The Mountain West champ seems likely to gain a BCS bowl berth
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) [6] : Their defense has evaporated, but Tony Pike led the Bearcats to the Big East title
6. Florida Gators (12-1) [2] : Florida falls to Alabama and will get a likely Orange Bowl berth as consolation
7. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [7] : The Ducks win the Pac-10 and a Rose Bowl trip
8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) [12] : The ACC Champs will likely gain a Sugar Bowl trip
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) [8] : Next stop - Pasadena!
10. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) [9]
11. BYU Cougars (10-2) [10]
12. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) [11]
13. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2) [14] : Winners of the MAC
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) [16]
15. Houston Cougars (10-3) [15]
16. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) [13] : They nearly had the Big East title
17. Utah Utes (9-3) [18]
18. LSU Tigers (9-3) [19]
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) [20]
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) [17] : Nearly beat Texas
21. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [24] : Huge demolition of Hawaii
22. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) [22]
23. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) [25]
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) [NP]
25. East Carolina Pirates (9-4) [NP]
On the Edge
+1 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
+2 Oregon State Beavers (8-4)
+3 Arizona Wildcats (8-4)
+4 USC Trojans (8-4)
+5 Ole Miss Rebels (8-4)
+6 Navy Midshipmen (8-4) : They have one more game, against Army this weekend
+7 Clemson Tigers (8-5)
Dropped: USC Trojans [#21], Clemson Tigers [#23]
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) [3] : The Tide regain the top spot with an impressive victory over the Florida Gators
2. Texas Longhorns (13-0) [1] : A last second field goal prevented an upset and sends the Longhorns to the BCS title game
3. Boise State Broncos (13-0) [5] : The Broncos played an extra game and vaulted over TCU, but we don't know if they'll get a BCS bowl game
4. TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) [4] : The Mountain West champ seems likely to gain a BCS bowl berth
5. Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) [6] : Their defense has evaporated, but Tony Pike led the Bearcats to the Big East title
6. Florida Gators (12-1) [2] : Florida falls to Alabama and will get a likely Orange Bowl berth as consolation
7. Oregon Ducks (10-2) [7] : The Ducks win the Pac-10 and a Rose Bowl trip
8. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2) [12] : The ACC Champs will likely gain a Sugar Bowl trip
9. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) [8] : Next stop - Pasadena!
10. Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) [9]
11. BYU Cougars (10-2) [10]
12. Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) [11]
13. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2) [14] : Winners of the MAC
14. Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3) [16]
15. Houston Cougars (10-3) [15]
16. Pittsburgh Panthers (9-3) [13] : They nearly had the Big East title
17. Utah Utes (9-3) [18]
18. LSU Tigers (9-3) [19]
19. Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3) [20]
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-4) [17] : Nearly beat Texas
21. Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) [24] : Huge demolition of Hawaii
22. Miami Hurricanes (9-3) [22]
23. West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3) [25]
24. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) [NP]
25. East Carolina Pirates (9-4) [NP]
On the Edge
+1 Stanford Cardinal (8-4)
+2 Oregon State Beavers (8-4)
+3 Arizona Wildcats (8-4)
+4 USC Trojans (8-4)
+5 Ole Miss Rebels (8-4)
+6 Navy Midshipmen (8-4) : They have one more game, against Army this weekend
+7 Clemson Tigers (8-5)
Dropped: USC Trojans [#21], Clemson Tigers [#23]
Thursday, December 3, 2009
NFL Week 13 picks
Not too many exciting match-ups this week, but we do see a tough battle in Indy brewing.
Thursday - New York Jets at Buffalo Bills : Both teams are coming off of important wins. Buffalo needs this win more - a loss could practically remove them from playoff contention - but I'm not sure they'll get it. Despite rookie mistakes by Jets QB Mark Sanchez, the Jets offense is more in sync than the Bills. Defensively, I have to give the nod to Rex Ryan's Jets. JETS, 23-20
Sunday early games:
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs should regain their winning ways nicely against the hapless and confused Chiefs. BRONCOS, 28-6
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals: Although unbeaten in the NFC North, the Bengals haven't done so well outside the division. This game should help boost their percentage, although the Lions might prove a bit tougher than they expected. Despite a loss on Thanksgiving Day, Matt Stafford was starting to get more comfortable in his role, and the receivers were getting in sync. BENGALS, 20-10
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: This game could go either way. I think the last team to get into the red zone will win it, and I think Jack Del Rio does a fairly good job of clock management. JAGS, 20-17
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: The Patriots should bounce back nicely from their loss to the Saints. The wildcard doesn't bother the Pats defense, and Miami doesn't have much else. PATS, 24-16
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: The Saints will continue their unbeaten streak and dominance of the league in an overwhelmingly dominant performance in DC. SAINTS, 37-13
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: Life hasn't been too good for the Steelers recently, but with Big Ben likely returning to the field, they should get new life and new spirit, and trounce the utterly offensiveless Raiders. STEELERS, 23-10
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons play tough at home, so they won't make it easy for the Eagles. The Eagles have a strong offense, though, so they should lead for most of the game. The Falcons gain second wind in the fourth quarter, though. If the Eagles defense cannot stop their last drive, the Falcons might squeak out a one-point victory. EAGLES, 26-20
St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Ah, the Bears finally get a defense so porous that even Jay Cutler can't screw up. Defensively injured but spiritually tough, I think the Rams will have trouble moving the ball. BEARS, 27-10
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: This is a game that the Bucs could win, and QB Josh Freeman is starting to catch on, but the Panthers defense might still be too much for Freeman to overcome at this point in his development. Expect this one to a defensive battle. PANTHERS, 13-6
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts like close games, and this one should be close. I'll pick Indy, because they play so well in those circumstances, but I can't deny the success that Vince Young has had since returning under center. He seems revitalized in his commitment, and he's outrunning defenses to keep the play alive. If the Colts aren't careful, this will be their first loss of the season. COLTS, 24-22
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Giants are down again, while the Cowboys are looking sharper. Their struggles earlier in the season seem to have disappeared, and that makes their offense dangerous. The Giants defense has shown several holes, holes the Cowboys will exploit. COWBOYS, 27-16
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: San Diego's in good shape to pulverize the Browns and maintain their one-game lead over the Broncos in the closest division race in the league. CHARGERS, 30-10
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The 49ers look to remain active in the playoff hunt as they travel to Seattle. The Seahawks just aren't coordinated this season, and they make WAAAYYYY too many mistakes. San Francisco is one of the better teams in regards to creating turnovers, so this game should go the 49ers' way. 49ERS, 20-13
Monday Night Football - Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers: The Pack will continue their march to remain within striking distance of the NFC North division title as they face the Ravens. The Ravens have proven to be a bit underachieving this season, given the offensive support given to them in the off-season. The Pack has injuries, but they always find ways to deliver anyway. PACK, 27-17
Thursday - New York Jets at Buffalo Bills : Both teams are coming off of important wins. Buffalo needs this win more - a loss could practically remove them from playoff contention - but I'm not sure they'll get it. Despite rookie mistakes by Jets QB Mark Sanchez, the Jets offense is more in sync than the Bills. Defensively, I have to give the nod to Rex Ryan's Jets. JETS, 23-20
Sunday early games:
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs should regain their winning ways nicely against the hapless and confused Chiefs. BRONCOS, 28-6
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals: Although unbeaten in the NFC North, the Bengals haven't done so well outside the division. This game should help boost their percentage, although the Lions might prove a bit tougher than they expected. Despite a loss on Thanksgiving Day, Matt Stafford was starting to get more comfortable in his role, and the receivers were getting in sync. BENGALS, 20-10
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: This game could go either way. I think the last team to get into the red zone will win it, and I think Jack Del Rio does a fairly good job of clock management. JAGS, 20-17
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: The Patriots should bounce back nicely from their loss to the Saints. The wildcard doesn't bother the Pats defense, and Miami doesn't have much else. PATS, 24-16
New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: The Saints will continue their unbeaten streak and dominance of the league in an overwhelmingly dominant performance in DC. SAINTS, 37-13
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: Life hasn't been too good for the Steelers recently, but with Big Ben likely returning to the field, they should get new life and new spirit, and trounce the utterly offensiveless Raiders. STEELERS, 23-10
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons play tough at home, so they won't make it easy for the Eagles. The Eagles have a strong offense, though, so they should lead for most of the game. The Falcons gain second wind in the fourth quarter, though. If the Eagles defense cannot stop their last drive, the Falcons might squeak out a one-point victory. EAGLES, 26-20
St Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Ah, the Bears finally get a defense so porous that even Jay Cutler can't screw up. Defensively injured but spiritually tough, I think the Rams will have trouble moving the ball. BEARS, 27-10
Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers: This is a game that the Bucs could win, and QB Josh Freeman is starting to catch on, but the Panthers defense might still be too much for Freeman to overcome at this point in his development. Expect this one to a defensive battle. PANTHERS, 13-6
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts like close games, and this one should be close. I'll pick Indy, because they play so well in those circumstances, but I can't deny the success that Vince Young has had since returning under center. He seems revitalized in his commitment, and he's outrunning defenses to keep the play alive. If the Colts aren't careful, this will be their first loss of the season. COLTS, 24-22
Sunday late games:
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: The Giants are down again, while the Cowboys are looking sharper. Their struggles earlier in the season seem to have disappeared, and that makes their offense dangerous. The Giants defense has shown several holes, holes the Cowboys will exploit. COWBOYS, 27-16
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: San Diego's in good shape to pulverize the Browns and maintain their one-game lead over the Broncos in the closest division race in the league. CHARGERS, 30-10
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The 49ers look to remain active in the playoff hunt as they travel to Seattle. The Seahawks just aren't coordinated this season, and they make WAAAYYYY too many mistakes. San Francisco is one of the better teams in regards to creating turnovers, so this game should go the 49ers' way. 49ERS, 20-13
Monday Night Football - Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers: The Pack will continue their march to remain within striking distance of the NFC North division title as they face the Ravens. The Ravens have proven to be a bit underachieving this season, given the offensive support given to them in the off-season. The Pack has injuries, but they always find ways to deliver anyway. PACK, 27-17
NFL Power Rankings - Week 12
Still two unbeaten teams remain. This is getting interesting. One more week and we'll have gone the farthest into a season with two teams unbeaten. Indy may have a tough time against Tennessee, as the revitalized Titans have yet to lose with Vince Young starting.
There are two divisional titles that are, for all practical purposes, set. Our two unbeatens could still mathematically fail to win their respective divisions, but that seems unlikely. A win by each of them clinches, as does a loss by Jacksonville and Atlanta.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. New Orleans Saints (11-0) [1] : Another strong win, and against one of their toughest opponents of the season
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-0) [2] : More offense than I expected, but at least this margin was more than a score
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-1) [3] : Destroyed the Bears to take commanding lead in NFC North
4. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [5] : Strong Thanksgiving Day victory
5. San Diego Chargers (8-3) [6] : Quietly moving up the rankings
6. Green Bay Packers (7-4) [7]
7. New England Patriots (7-4) [4]
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) [9] : Nice win, even if it was against Washington
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) [10] : They swept the AFC North and have strong lead for the division title
10. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [8]
11. Baltimore Ravens (6-5) [12]
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) [11] : That game never should have gotten to overtime; had Big Ben played, they would have won in regulation
13. Denver Broncos (7-4) [21] : They got out of their rut by slaughtering the Giants, who couldn't maintain their improvement
14. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) [15]
15. San Francisco 49ers (5-6) [17] : Still in the playoff hunt
16. Tennessee Titans (5-6) [22] : Vince Young has brought this team to nearly .500!
17. New York Jets (5-6) [18]
18. Houston Texans (5-6) [16]
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) [14]
20. New York Giants (6-5) [13] : Back to their losing ways in a horrific loss!
21. Buffalo Bills (4-7) [29] : HUGE game for the Bills!
22. Seattle Seahawks (4-7) [23]
23. Miami Dolphins (5-6) [19]
24. Chicago Bears (4-7) [20] : Another pathetic performance by Jay Cutler
25. Carolina Panthers (4-7) [24] : Jake Delhomme looked pretty pitiful
26. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8) [26]
27. Washington Redskins (3-8) [27] : They tried, but couldn't upset the Eagles
28. Oakland Raiders (3-8) [26] : Slaughtered like a Thanksgiving turkey
29. Detroit Lions (2-9) [28] : The league is thinking of taking away Detroit's Thanksgiving Day game
30. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-10) [30]
31. Cleveland Browns (2-9) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-10) [32]
Division rankings
1. AFC South [2] : One unbeaten team and the others closely clustered
2. NFC East [1] : Two Top Ten teams, but the Giants are dragging them down again
3. AFC North [4] : Three teams among the top twelve makes this a strong division, despite Cleveland
4. NFC North [3] : Two teams in the Top Ten puts some punch into this division
5. AFC East [5] : Not looking good for this division
6. NFC South [6] : They have the best team in the league, but they suffer elsewhere
7. AFC West [7] : If Denver can bounce back, this division can move up
8. NFC West [8] : Although the 49ers make some noise, really this team is relying on Arizona to keep them in contention
There are two divisional titles that are, for all practical purposes, set. Our two unbeatens could still mathematically fail to win their respective divisions, but that seems unlikely. A win by each of them clinches, as does a loss by Jacksonville and Atlanta.
This week's ranking [Last week's position]
1. New Orleans Saints (11-0) [1] : Another strong win, and against one of their toughest opponents of the season
2. Indianapolis Colts (11-0) [2] : More offense than I expected, but at least this margin was more than a score
3. Minnesota Vikings (10-1) [3] : Destroyed the Bears to take commanding lead in NFC North
4. Dallas Cowboys (8-3) [5] : Strong Thanksgiving Day victory
5. San Diego Chargers (8-3) [6] : Quietly moving up the rankings
6. Green Bay Packers (7-4) [7]
7. New England Patriots (7-4) [4]
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) [9] : Nice win, even if it was against Washington
9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) [10] : They swept the AFC North and have strong lead for the division title
10. Arizona Cardinals (7-4) [8]
11. Baltimore Ravens (6-5) [12]
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) [11] : That game never should have gotten to overtime; had Big Ben played, they would have won in regulation
13. Denver Broncos (7-4) [21] : They got out of their rut by slaughtering the Giants, who couldn't maintain their improvement
14. Atlanta Falcons (6-5) [15]
15. San Francisco 49ers (5-6) [17] : Still in the playoff hunt
16. Tennessee Titans (5-6) [22] : Vince Young has brought this team to nearly .500!
17. New York Jets (5-6) [18]
18. Houston Texans (5-6) [16]
19. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) [14]
20. New York Giants (6-5) [13] : Back to their losing ways in a horrific loss!
21. Buffalo Bills (4-7) [29] : HUGE game for the Bills!
22. Seattle Seahawks (4-7) [23]
23. Miami Dolphins (5-6) [19]
24. Chicago Bears (4-7) [20] : Another pathetic performance by Jay Cutler
25. Carolina Panthers (4-7) [24] : Jake Delhomme looked pretty pitiful
26. Kansas City Chiefs (3-8) [26]
27. Washington Redskins (3-8) [27] : They tried, but couldn't upset the Eagles
28. Oakland Raiders (3-8) [26] : Slaughtered like a Thanksgiving turkey
29. Detroit Lions (2-9) [28] : The league is thinking of taking away Detroit's Thanksgiving Day game
30. Tampa Bay Bucs (1-10) [30]
31. Cleveland Browns (2-9) [31]
32. St Louis Rams (1-10) [32]
Division rankings
1. AFC South [2] : One unbeaten team and the others closely clustered
2. NFC East [1] : Two Top Ten teams, but the Giants are dragging them down again
3. AFC North [4] : Three teams among the top twelve makes this a strong division, despite Cleveland
4. NFC North [3] : Two teams in the Top Ten puts some punch into this division
5. AFC East [5] : Not looking good for this division
6. NFC South [6] : They have the best team in the league, but they suffer elsewhere
7. AFC West [7] : If Denver can bounce back, this division can move up
8. NFC West [8] : Although the 49ers make some noise, really this team is relying on Arizona to keep them in contention
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
NCAA Week 14 picks
Most of the games are conference championship ones (including the Big East and Pac-10), so let's look at those by conference. There are a couple of other games, which I'll list after those.
Thursday - Pac-10 Title game: Oregon State Beavers at #7 Oregon Ducks: The Beavers can be dangerous on the road, and these state rivalry games can be murder to the favored team, but with a Rose Bowl bid on the line, I think the Ducks will pull this one out. OREGON
Friday - MAC Championship Game: Ohio Bobcats at #14 Central Michigan Chippewas: Ohio may have found the strength to surprise Temple in order to reach this game, but I don't think they'll overcome Central Michigan. The Chippewas have dominated the conference all season, and they want this championship. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Top 25 and Conference Championships
#25 West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Big East title isn't on the line, but West Virginia still wants a good bowl game. They know they need to beat Rutgers, and win big. They'll do the former, but I'm not sure about the latter; this game might be close. WEST VIRGINIA
Big East title game - #6 Cincinnati Bearcats at #13 Pittsburgh Panthers: Cincy might have wished that Pitt won last week's game. The loss will make them even more determined to win this game, and might make the coordinators change their game plans. That means Cincy has less to go on. Cincy's advantage - QB Tony Pike. I think Pike will lead them back from a fourth quarter deficit and maintain the unbeaten season, but this might turn out to be an upset. CINCINNATI
Conference USA Championship Game - East Carolina Pirates v #15 Houston Cougars: The Pirates have a fierce defense, but Houston is simply too balanced a team to lose this game. HOUSTON
New Mexico State Aggies at #5 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos play a 13th game, but should maintain their unbeaten status. That will mean only three teams might be 13-0 going into the bowls; still an astounding number. BOISE STATE
Arizona Wildcats at #21 USC Trojans: The Trojans will drop from the Top 25 with a loss. I'm not sure they'll lose, but Arizona won't make it easy on them. USC had a great home record, so I'll favor them, but Arizona is pretty good on the road, so watch for an upset. USC
SEC Championship Game - #2 Florida Gators v #3 Alabama Crimson Tide: Buckle up, because this one should be a dandy! Florida may be favored, but I like the balance of offense, defense, and special teams incorporated in Alabama. Florida's offense hasn't been as stellar this year, and they've relied a bit too much on their defense. They've gotten by, but they face an even better defense in Alabama. This game will be close, and a defensive battle, which gives the edge to Bama. ALABAMA
ACC Championship Game - #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v #23 Clemson Tigers: They both lost last week, which is not a good way to enter the conference title game. I think Georgia Tech is the stronger team, but watch out for Clemson's offense. GEORGIA TECH
Big XII Championship Game - #1 Texas Longhorns v Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is a good team, and this conference has suffered more upsets in Championship Games than any other, so this won't be an easy win for Texas, but I think they'll win nevertheless. The BCS title game will be Texas against the SEC Champion. TEXAS
Big Ten
The Big Ten gets in a couple of late games (unusual, as they are usually the conference that finishes first). Wisconsin often does that, but now Illinois adds a game, too.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Bulldogs have had a pitiful year. Illini's offense has come alive recently; they were even impressive against Cincinnati. I have to like Illinois' chances. ILLINOIS
Wisconsin Badgers at Hawaii Warriors: Hawaii can be a tough team to play at home, but that's mostly the time difference; the Wariors aren't a dangerous offensive threat this season. The Badgers will be in Hawaii a couple of days early in order to get used to the time zone, so I don't predict a problem here. WISCONSIN
Thursday - Pac-10 Title game: Oregon State Beavers at #7 Oregon Ducks: The Beavers can be dangerous on the road, and these state rivalry games can be murder to the favored team, but with a Rose Bowl bid on the line, I think the Ducks will pull this one out. OREGON
Friday - MAC Championship Game: Ohio Bobcats at #14 Central Michigan Chippewas: Ohio may have found the strength to surprise Temple in order to reach this game, but I don't think they'll overcome Central Michigan. The Chippewas have dominated the conference all season, and they want this championship. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Top 25 and Conference Championships
#25 West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights: The Big East title isn't on the line, but West Virginia still wants a good bowl game. They know they need to beat Rutgers, and win big. They'll do the former, but I'm not sure about the latter; this game might be close. WEST VIRGINIA
Big East title game - #6 Cincinnati Bearcats at #13 Pittsburgh Panthers: Cincy might have wished that Pitt won last week's game. The loss will make them even more determined to win this game, and might make the coordinators change their game plans. That means Cincy has less to go on. Cincy's advantage - QB Tony Pike. I think Pike will lead them back from a fourth quarter deficit and maintain the unbeaten season, but this might turn out to be an upset. CINCINNATI
Conference USA Championship Game - East Carolina Pirates v #15 Houston Cougars: The Pirates have a fierce defense, but Houston is simply too balanced a team to lose this game. HOUSTON
New Mexico State Aggies at #5 Boise State Broncos: The Broncos play a 13th game, but should maintain their unbeaten status. That will mean only three teams might be 13-0 going into the bowls; still an astounding number. BOISE STATE
Arizona Wildcats at #21 USC Trojans: The Trojans will drop from the Top 25 with a loss. I'm not sure they'll lose, but Arizona won't make it easy on them. USC had a great home record, so I'll favor them, but Arizona is pretty good on the road, so watch for an upset. USC
SEC Championship Game - #2 Florida Gators v #3 Alabama Crimson Tide: Buckle up, because this one should be a dandy! Florida may be favored, but I like the balance of offense, defense, and special teams incorporated in Alabama. Florida's offense hasn't been as stellar this year, and they've relied a bit too much on their defense. They've gotten by, but they face an even better defense in Alabama. This game will be close, and a defensive battle, which gives the edge to Bama. ALABAMA
ACC Championship Game - #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v #23 Clemson Tigers: They both lost last week, which is not a good way to enter the conference title game. I think Georgia Tech is the stronger team, but watch out for Clemson's offense. GEORGIA TECH
Big XII Championship Game - #1 Texas Longhorns v Nebraska Cornhuskers: Nebraska is a good team, and this conference has suffered more upsets in Championship Games than any other, so this won't be an easy win for Texas, but I think they'll win nevertheless. The BCS title game will be Texas against the SEC Champion. TEXAS
Big Ten
The Big Ten gets in a couple of late games (unusual, as they are usually the conference that finishes first). Wisconsin often does that, but now Illinois adds a game, too.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Illinois Fighting Illini: The Bulldogs have had a pitiful year. Illini's offense has come alive recently; they were even impressive against Cincinnati. I have to like Illinois' chances. ILLINOIS
Wisconsin Badgers at Hawaii Warriors: Hawaii can be a tough team to play at home, but that's mostly the time difference; the Wariors aren't a dangerous offensive threat this season. The Badgers will be in Hawaii a couple of days early in order to get used to the time zone, so I don't predict a problem here. WISCONSIN
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