NFL 2011 Week 4 picks

Sunday early games:
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2):  Buffalo beat the Patriots!  If they don't get so excited this week that they suffer a letdown, they should win this game easily.  Ryan Fitzgerald is leading the most potent offense in the league.  BILLS, 31-21

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2):  Carolina won their first game last week, but Cam Newton still has things to learn.  The Bears defense will teach him a few things.  He may be a better quarterback AFTER this game, but he won't look great during the game.  BEARS, 20-17

Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1):  Tony Romo's physical condition may improve by game time, but its their defense who look weak.  Detroit has a powerful offense and their speed is greater than the Cowboys' defense.  LIONS, 31-21

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3):  The Chiefs' offense is struggling, while McNabb seems to connecting with his new team.  I think the Vikings will gain their first win, while the Chiefs look stronger as the leading candidate for Andrew Luck.  VIKINGS, 23-10

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2):  Jacksonville's offense has been struggling.  The Saints offense just keeps rolling along, but their defense needs work.  The holes in the defense should allow the Jags to score, but they won't score enough against the high-powered Saints.  SAINTS, 30-16

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1):  Pittsburgh's running game has been anemic, and their passing game hasn't been spectacular, either.  Worse, their rush defense is suffering, which opens the door for the Texans.  TEXANS, 23-20

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2):  It looks like Vick is out for a week or two, which is great news for San Fran.  Their offense isn't great, but they should be able to score enough against the Eagles that a Vick-less offense can't surpass them.  49ERS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-1):  This should be a close game, and I usually go with either the home team or the best defense in those cases.  I think Cleveland qualifies for both of those.  BROWNS, 23-21

Washington Redskins (2-1) at St Louis Rams (0-3):  The Rams defense can't stop anyone.  This is the type of defense that Rex Grossman loves, so expect Washington to move the ball well.  REDSKINS, 27-13

Sunday late games:
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2):  Seattle's offense has been a bit anemic.  The Falcons' offense hasn't been as sharp as recent years, but the potential exists.  I think Matt Ryan gets into a better groove in this game, as he's taking some heat this week.  FALCONS, 23-16

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-0):  The Pack are a strong team, and that fast rushing defense will frustrate Kyle Orton.  PACKERS, 31-20

Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1):  The Dolphins aren't terrible, but they can't seem to finish games.  The Chargers will take a strong second half lead, which will make things worse for the non-closing Dolphins.  CHARGERS, 23-17

New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1):  The Raiders are proving to be tenacious at home -- they beat the Jets last week!  The Pats rarely lose two games in a row, and their loss to Buffalo last week will add incentive to win this one.  I'll pick Bill Belichick and the "never say die" Patriots, but don't be surprised if the Raiders pull it out.  PATS, 30-24

New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2):  The Giants are starting to come together, both on offense and defense.  The Cardinals are still too inconsistent to feel confident about them.  GIANTS, 23-20

Sunday night:
New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1):  The Jets faltered against the Raiders last week, and the Ravens have been a powerful team (except for their stumble against the Titans).  This is another game that could go either way, but I like the Ravens at home, where they slaughtered the Steelers.  RAVENS, 23-20

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (2-1):  Kerry Collins is starting to improve, but the Bucs defense will frustrate them all day.  The Bucs gave a Peyton Manning-led offense (with a patchwork of receivers) great difficulty last season, and I see them abusing these leaderless Colts this year.  BUCS, 24-16

NCAA 2011 Week 5 picks

Many conferences enter conference play, yet there are also some FBS v FCS matchups.  We have a couple of battles between Top 25 teams, and some rivalries already kicking in. 

Thursday, Sept 29
#14 South Florida Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers:  The Panthers fought Notre Dame mightily last week, but they still lost.  The Bulls have a tough defense, and an offense strong enough to beat Pitt.  SOUTH FLORIDA

#21 Houston Cougars at UTEP Miners:  Houston shouldn't have much difficulty against a struggling Miners team.  HOUSTON

Friday, Sept 30
Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars:  Utah State has played teams close, but still sit with a 1-3 record.  BYU hasn't been dominant, but they have found ways to win.  BYU

Top 25
UCLA Bruins at #1 Stanford Cardinal:  The Bruins are improving, but they aren't good enough to knock off the last unbeaten team in the Pac-12.  Andrew Luck returned to Stanford to play for a National Championship, and he may get that chance.  STANFORD

#15 Nebraska Cornhuskers at #3 Wisconsin Badgers:  Nebraska plays their first Big Ten conference game in history, and they have to face the most powerful offense in the conference.  Mix in Wisconsin's defense, and things don't look good for Nebraska's Big Ten opener.  WISCONSIN

Ball State Cardinals at #6 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Cardinals have been playing some great football, including an offensive showcase against Army last week, but they face a tougher challenge against Oklahoma.  The Sooners defense isn't as strong as it has been, so Ball State will score some points, but Oklahoma will score more.  OKLAHOMA

#7 Texas A&M Aggies at ##22 Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas faces the possibility of losing two consecutive games to Top Ten teams.  The Aggies lost last week, but they played a close game and scared the Cowboys.  They won't be scared of Arkansas.  TEXAS A&M

#8 Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones:  The Cyclones are unbeaten, and can give Texas a hard time.  However, the Longhorns have come together faster than expected, and they are definitely a challenger for the Big XII title.  TEXAS

Kentucky Wildcats at #9 LSU Tigers:  Kentucky faces their second consecutive Top Ten SEC team, and the result won't be much different.  The LSU offense finally came alive last week, which just makes them more difficult.  LSU

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #10 Michigan Wolverines:  This game won't be as close as I suspected a couple of weeks ago.  Minnesota is losing power, while the Wolverines continue to improve under new coach Brady Hoke's tutelage.  MICHIGAN

Auburn Tigers at #11 South Carolina Gamecocks:  You can never count out the Auburn Tigers, but they just aren't as sharp as they were last year.  I like what the Gamecocks are doing this year, and that makes them the favorite in this battle.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Nevada Wolf Pack at #12 Boise State Broncos:  Last year this game was a real barnburner.  This year the Wolf Pack aren't nearly so competitive.  BOISE STATE

#13 Clemson Tigers at #16 Virginia Tech Hokies:  This battle of unbeaten ACC teams should be exciting.  The Hokies can always be tough at home, but they haven't looked as sharp as previous years.  Clemson has quietly been a successful team this season, and may surprise the Hokies.  CLEMSON

#18 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at NC State Wolfpack:  NC State is just not gelling this season.  This should be an easy victory for Georgia Tech.  GEORGIA TECH

#19 Baylor Bears at #20 Kansas State Wildcats:  This will really prove how good Kansas State is.  They had a good game last week, but their previous games featured patsy opponents that are really not a good warmup for the competitive Big XII this season.  Baylor has played closer games but overcome tougher opposition, including their opener against TCU.  I think Baylor will be competitive this game.  BAYLOR

Michigan State Spartans at #23 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes gain some players back from suspension, but there are rumors of additional ones coming.  If the Buckeyes lose players, Michigan State could pull off the upset.  As it is, I'll pick the Buckeyes, but watch out for Sparty!  OHIO STATE

Bethune-Cookman at #24 Miami Hurricanes:  Easy win for Miami.  MIAMI

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini:  What do you call an Illini team with an unexpected 4-0 record?  A Top 25 contender!  The Wildcats had an extra week to prepare for this game, so their new quarterback got more practice time.  The Illini offense acts like it needs more practice time, and this state rivalry can get very heated.  If the Illini can get past their rival, they deserve a Top 25 rank.  ILLINOIS

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers:  Penn State won't get surprised by the Hoosiers; since their loss they have tightened things up.  PENN STATE

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers:  This game frequently becomes a battle.  The Boilermakers got an extra week to prepare, so you know they will playing hard.  The Irish are starting to get back on track, which makes them dangerous.  I like Purdue's chances, but the Irish has been so unpredictable this season that I have to expect the unexpected with them.  NOTRE DAME

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #2 Alabama Crimson Tide at #5 Florida Gators:  Florida has scrambled their way into the Top 5 with a tremendous SEC win last week, but now they face the Crimson Tide.  The offense is explosive again and the defense, may perhaps not as stingy as their National Championship year, is tough.  Florida will find this a difficult game, even playing in the friendly confines of the Swamp.  ALABAMA

And the rest...
Toledo Rockets at Temple Owls:  Toledo was expected to lead their division in the MAC, but they are collapsing.  Temple is a Top 25 contender.  TEMPLE

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks:  Tech's offense isn't as powerful as previous years, but it'll be enough to overpower the struggling Jayhawks.  TEXAS TECH

Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen:  These battle of the service academies can get bloody.  Air Force has been struggling, but that won't mean much in this contest.  Still, nobody grinds it out better than Navy.  NAVY

Buffalo Bulls at Tennessee Volunteers:  Tennessee needs an ego boost.  This game should qualify.  TENNESSEE

Bowling Green Falcons at West Virginia Mountaineers:  Bowling Green is looking good, and could pull out the upset, but the Mountaineers are hungry for a good victory after last week's woes, so they'll take it out on the Falcons.  WEST VIRGINIA

SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs:  TCU's been battling for respect since their loss to Baylor.  This game may not completely qualify, but a strong victory will boost their standing.  TCU

Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans:  Arizona can surprise, but the Trojans want to wash out the sting of a blowout loss.  They will battle hard, and they will take out their frustrations on the Wildcats.  USC

Washington Huskies at Utah Utes:  Welcome to the Pac-12, Utah.  They haven't been having the type of season they are used to, and need a signature win to establish themselves in their new conference.  Washington is actually proving to be a good team this season.  A win here will boost Utah's position.  Washington won't make it easy for them.  UTAH

NCAA 2011 Week 4 Top 25

Upsets plagued Top 25 (and prospective Top 25) teams again this week.  While EITHER team winning the LSU v West Virginia contest would not be an upset, the winning margin of 26 points WAS an upset.  I didn't either team would so dominate.  West Virginia committed three uncharacteristic turnovers in the first half, and LSU capitalized on each one.  The anemic Kansas State Wildcats took an early lead against Miami.  The Hurricanes stormed back, but they couldn't come all the way back. 

I took heat about my placement of Florida International into the Top 25, and Louisiana-Lafayette showed that I was mistaken.  The Golden Panthers got beat, and the Top 25 is now a distant memory.  A team who hasn't seen a Top 25 since I began this ranking in 1995 is Duke, yet the Blue Devils gained their second victory by manhandling Tulane.  Stanford is now the only undefeated Pac-12 team as Arizona State, fresh from their upset loss to the Fighting Illini, kicked USC's butt.  The game wasn't even close, spinning the Trojans out of control.

The Big Ten wasn't immune to an upset, as the hard-fighting Minnesota Golden Gophers were up-ended by FCS North Dakota State.  So much for hoping that Minnesota would surprise this season; that just leaves Illinois as an unexpected dark horse in the conference.

This week's Top 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [1]
2.  Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) [3]
3.  Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) [2]
4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0) [5] - Powerful performance against A&M
5.  Florida Gators (4-0) [6] - Great SEC opener!
6.  Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) [4] - Struggled against Missouri
7.  Texas A&M Aggies (2-1) [7] - Impressive in a loss
8.  Texas Longhorns (3-0) [8]
9.  LSU Tigers (4-0) [11] - Wiped out West Virginia
10. Michigan Wolverines (4-0) [10]
11. South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0) [13]
12. Boise State Broncos (3-0) [12]
13. Clemson Tigers (4-0) [14]
14. South Florida Bulls (4-0) [16]
15. Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0) [20] - Slow start against Wyoming, but they owned the 2nd half
16. Virginia Tech Hokies (4-0) [NR]
17. Oregon Ducks (3-1) [24]
18. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-0) [NR]
19. Baylor Bears (3-0) [23]
20. Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) [NR]
21. Houston Cougars (4-0) [21]
22. Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1) [9]
23. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) [25] - The Buckeyes get back some key players this week
24. Miami Hurricanes (2-1) [17]
25. Florida State Seminoles (2-2) [19]

Dropped:  West Virginia Mountaineers [#15], Florida International Golden Panthers [#18], San Diego State Aztecs [#22]

Also in contention:  Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0), Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0), Temple Owls (3-1), Michigan State Spartans (3-1), TCU Horned Frogs (3-1), Navy Midshipmen (2-1), Auburn Tigers (3-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1), Tennessee Volunteers (2-1), Washington Huskies (3-1)

NFL 2011 Week 3 picks

The Falcons offense woke up this week.  Kerry Collins is looking better, but the Colts still trail in the AFC South, Washington has proven to be the strongest NFC East team, and Buffalo has the most potent offense.  What surprises will Week 3 bring?

Sunday early games
Denver Broncos (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1):  Tennessee's defense seems solid, as they outplayed the powerful Ravens defense.  That should give Denver cause for concern.  On the other hand, the Titans have a nasty habit of playing up to the level of stiff competition and playing down to the level of mediocre competition.  That could give Denver an opening.  I think Tennessee will prevent the loss, but this may be closer than they'd like.  TITANS, 20-17

Detroit Lions (2-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2):  Donovan McNabb showed a bit more life in this week's game, but he's still shaky.  Worse, the entire Vikings defense seems shaky, which will be a problem facing the high-scoring Lions.  LIONS, 31-17

Houston Texans (2-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-1):  Houston has the stingiest defense in the league (yes, Jets fans, you read that right!), but slowing New Orleans may be a challenge.  They will have to, as their offense isn't capable of outscoring them.  This game could go either way, so it's my first "pick-em" game of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2):  The Panthers haven't been able to close games, but they are looking better.  Jacksonville's offense is pathetic.  All the Panthers will need to do in this game is preserve a fourth quarter lead, which seems easier for them than engineering a fourth quarter comeback.  PANTHERS, 27-20

Miami Dolphins (0-2) at Cleveland Browns (1-1):  Cleveland has to watch out, because Indy was engineering a nice comeback this past week.  Still, I think the Browns defense will do a good job of shutting down Henne and company, and allow the lumbering Browns offense to eat clock.  BROWNS, 23-20

New England Patriots (2-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-0):  The two best offenses in the AFC battle it out.  This will be reminiscent of the old Patriot-Dolphins games, where each team could score forty or more points.  I'm not sure we'll see that much offense, but both offenses should get over 400 yards each.  The Patriots usually prevail in these AFC East offensive showdowns, so I'll pick them.  PATS, 38-34

New York Giants (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1):  The Eagles gave up a fourth quarter lead against Atlanta, but now they host a team where they engineered a similar comeback two years ago.  The Giants defense got on track this week, but Eli and the offense are still struggling.  Without special teams and defensive turnovers, the Giants would have lost their game against the Rams.  Don't expect the Eagles to be so easy.  EAGLES, 28-20

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):  Cincy had trouble against Denver, so you know they still have problems.  Alex Smith and the 49ers offense continue to improve.  The defense couldn't stop a Dallas rally, but I don't think Cincy has the same ability to rally.  49ERS, 27-20

Sunday late games
Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2):  Seattle has the worst offense in the NFC; no other team is even close!  Their defense is only mediocre, so Arizona should be able to mop up this win easily enough.  CARDINALS, 27-13

Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Tampa Bay Bucs (1-1):  The Falcons pulled off a wonderful comeback against the Eagles.  That type of game built Matty Ice's reputation.  Tampa's defense is good, but I think Matty Ice and company will keep it close enough to engineer another fourth quarter comeback, especially since the Bucs offense isn't really strong.  FALCONS, 23-20

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at St Louis Rams (0-2):  Baltimore is mad about their upset to the Titans.  They'll take it out on the Rams.  RAVENS, 30-13

Green Bay Packers (2-0) at Chicago Bears (1-1):  The Bears made a great home stand against Atlanta in Week One, and I'd love to see them do it again, but I haven't heard whether Brian Urlacher will be back yet.  Without him, I think the Pack will roll.  PACK, 31-21

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-1):  Right now KC has the worst offense AND the worst defense in the league.  Their only consolation?  Getting Andrew Luck.  San Diego's offense will roll over them.  CHARGERS, 41-13

New York Jets (2-0) at Oakland Raiders (1-1):  The Raiders can be tricky, but the Jets are trying to keep pace with the Patriots in the AFC East, so this game is crucial.  The Jets defense plays a better form of traditional Raider football (beat up your opponent) than the Raiders currently do.  JETS, 30-20

Sunday night game:
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2):  Kerry Collins looked better last week, but the Steelers rush is too fast for the old man.  The Pitt offense got moving in Week 2, so we should see some points on the board here.  STEELERS, 23-13

Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1):  The Cowboys pulled off a great comeback against the 49ers, but the Redskins defense is stiffer.  I don't think Romo and company will be able to do it.  They should avoid cries of "fourth quarter meltdown" because they'll already trail by then.  REDSKINS, 26-17

NCAA 2011 Week 4 picks

I'm not picking any upsets this week, which might be dangerous.

Thursday, Sept 22
NC State Wolf Pack at Cincinnati Bearcats:  Both are 2-1, but only Cincy is playing like a 2-1 team.  CINCY

Friday, Sept 23
Central Florida Golden Knights at BYU Cougars:  The Cougars fought hard last week, so they seem to have woken up.  Let's see if they stay awake against Central Florida.  BYU

Top 25
South Dakota at #2 Wisconsin Badgers:  This FCS opponent shouldn't pose any trouble for the offensive powerhouse of the season so far.  WISCONSIN

#9 Arkansas Razorbacks at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Arkansas has some excellent offensive tools, but they'll be challenged by the stingy Tide defense.  'Bama's offense will march up the field against Arkansas, too.  ALABAMA

Missouri Tigers at #4 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Sooners survived a scare against Florida State; Missouri won't be so scary.  OKLAHOMA

#6 Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats:  The 'Cats will get bitten by the Gators.  FLORIDA

#22 San Diego State Aztecs at #10 Michigan Wolverines:  The Aztecs could trip up the Wolverines, but they seem to have found their power.  MICHIGAN

#11 LSU Tigers at #15 West Virginia Mountaineers:  Whoa, this could be an interesting game!  LSU is consistent, but their offense isn't clicking the same way it did last year.  With the Mountaineers running strong, I have to favor the home team.  WEST VIRGINIA

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at #12 Boise State Broncos:  Teams often find it hard to play on the blue turf at Boise, and Tulsa doesn't need any more problems this season.  BOISE STATE

Vanderbilt Commodores at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks:  This is a potential upset game, but I believe in the clever game planning of Stever Spurrier.  SOUTH CAROLINA

#19 Florida State Seminoles at #14 Clemson Tigers:  Clemson needs to be careful, because Florida State fought Oklahoma hard.  However, the Tigers beat Auburn last week, and the Seminoles faded in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma.  I favor Clemson pulling this one out late.  CLEMSON

UTEP Miners at #16 South Florida Bulls:  UTEP is struggling this season, while the Bulls continue to attack opponents.  SOUTH FLORIDA

Kansas State Wildcats at #17 Miami Hurricane:  The 'Canes dominated in their home opener.  The Wildcats haven't battled a tough enough opponent to prepare themselves for this challenge.  MIAMI

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at #18 Florida International Golden Panthers:  I'm catching some heat for my high placement of FIA, but this team has embarrassed every opponent they've faced, and they took on some tough opponents this season.  Moving into Sun Belt play only makes things easier for them.  FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

#20 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wyoming Cowboys:  Wyoming is good, but the Cornhuskers have been stable.  The Cornhuskers haven't been blowing away opponents, but that just makes them more dangerous, as they don't get much attention and teams may think they are suffering a down year.  They aren't.  NEBRASKA

Georgia State at #21 Houston Cougars:  This FCS opponent won't help Houston's Top 25 ranking, but it'll give them another win.  HOUSTON

Rice Owls at #23 Baylor Bears:  Baylor gets an impressive victory to improve their Top 25 standing.  BAYLOR

#24 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats:  Arizona fought hard last week, but ran out of gas.  Oregon may fall behind, but they'll pour it on late.  OREGON

Colorado Buffaloes at #25 Ohio State Buckeyes:  The Buckeyes face an easy opponent as they have players still sitting out their suspension.  OHIO STATE

Big Ten
Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans begin their road to redemption after suffering defeat to the Irish, and they get a pretty easy opponent to do it.  MICHIGAN STATE

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions:  This should be an easier game for the Nittany Lions after squeezing out a win against Temple.  PENN STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Iowa hasn't been looking sharp, but this game can help get them back on track.  IOWA

Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Broncos can be a tricky team, but after the defensive stand engineered by the Illini last week, I have to give them the edge.  ILLINOIS

North Dakota State at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota is actually a decent team this season, so this powerful FCS team won't shake them up too much.  MINNESOTA

Indiana Hoosiers at North Texas Mean Green:  Indiana encounters a team who is having an even worse season than they are.  INDIANA

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #5 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #7 Texas A&M Aggies:  This one could go either way.  I'd normally pick the home team in these types of battles, but I think the offensive power of the Cowboys could be the difference.  I also think the Cowboys' defense will be better than what finally took the field after the weather delay.  OKLAHOMA STATE

The Rest
North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  North Carolina is unbeaten, but they haven't been showing up big.  After a slow start to the season, Tech came alive last week.  I think that'll continue, especially with the home crowd to spur them on.  GEORGIA TECH

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers:  The Irish won their first game last week, but Pittsburgh has been a strong team throughout the season.  I like their chances to prevail here.  PITT

Temple Owls at Maryland Terrapins:  Maryland's little uniform switching act hasn't really helped their performance at all, while Temple has upped their game this season.  The Owls pushed Penn State to the limit; Maryland won't be much of a challenge.  TEMPLE

Ohio Bobcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  The Bobcats are quietly having a great season.  The Knights haven't been really powerful yet, but they had an extra week to prepare for this game, so they might have some tricks up their sleeve.  This will be a close one, but I'll pick the Bobcats.  OHIO

Virginia Tech Hokies at Marshall Thundering Herd:  The Hokies want to crack my Top 25, but vanquishing a struggling Marshall team doesn't give them much strength of schedule power.  VIRGINIA TECH

California Golden Bears at Washington Huskies:  Cal is 2-1 but have surrendered more points to FBS teams than they've scored.  Washington has shown themselves to be a good and stable team this season.  I have to favor the Huskies.  WASHINGTON

Florida Atlantic Owls at Auburn Tigers: The Tigers get to lick their wounds from Clemson since the Owls are having a terrible season.  AUBURN

Nevada Wolfpack at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  Last season this would have been a colossal battle.  The Wolfpack lost too much, and are no longer a threatening force.  TEXAS TECH

USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils:  Expect a real battle, as the Sun Devils try to erase the memory of their loss to Illinois.  They proved to have a potent passing offense, so USC's secondary had better be ready.  This will be a close game, with multiple lead changes, but I think USC has the defense to hold back Arizona State at the end.  USC

NCAA Week 3 Top 25

Upsets plagued the Big Ten again this week, but not all of them worked against the conference teams.  Both Penn State and Iowa avoided upsets, although it took a school record 4th quarter comeback on the part of the Hawkeyes to do it.  My own Alma Mater, the University of Illinois, engineered an upset against nationally ranked Arizona State.  The Illini offense wasn't working well, but the defense forced turnovers and shut down the Sun Devils running offense.

Three upsets did plague the teams of the Big Ten, though.  Both Ohio State and Michigan State, Top 25 teams, suffered losses that exposed serious deficiencies.  Michigan State's defense, especially against the run, proved porous, and their own rushing offense was lacking.  Ohio State's defense can still make things happen, but the offense wasn't capable of capitalizing on them.

The biggest surprise among the Big Ten was Northwestern's loss to Army.  With perhaps the biggest victory for the Black Knights in years, the Wildcats couldn't get their offense on track.  That has to concern them.

The Big Ten wasn't the only conference bitten by the upset bug.  The ACC saw upsets go their way, and knock them down.  Clemson beat the defending National Champion by 14 points, certainly an unexpected accomplishment.  Boston College, however, was beaten by Duke, the perennial ACC football doormat.  It DEFINITELY will be a long season for BC.

The FCS even got into the upset action, as Indiana State knocked off struggling Western Kentucky.  Could the Hilltoppers go winless for the second time in three years?  It kind of looks that way.

TOP 25 [Last week's position]
1.  Stanford Cardinal (3-0) [1]
2.  Wisconsin Badgers (3-0) [3] - Home to the most effective offense in FBS
3.  Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) [5]
4.  Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) [2] - Had a hard time against Florida State
5.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) [4] - The defense couldn't seem to handle the late hour, once the game finally began
6.  Florida Gators (3-0) [6]
7.  Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) [7]
8.  Texas Longhorms (3-0) [10] - I think we can shred the "rebuilding year" label
9.  Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0) [9]
10.  Michigan Wolverines (3-0) [14] - Their victory over Notre Dame looks better now
11. LSU Tigers (3-0) [11] - Offense still not quite getting going
12. Boise State Broncos (2-0) [NR] - One strong FBS win gets them back into the Top 25
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0) [13]
14. Clemson Tigers (3-0) [19] - Impressive victory against the current BCS Champ
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0) [15]
16. South Florida Bulls (3-0) [16] - Leader of the suddenly fractured Big East
17. Miami Hurricanes (2-0) [NR] - Never let the Hurricanes play angry
18. Florida International Golden Panthers (3-0) [24] - Perhaps the most interesting team in Florida
19. Florida State Seminoles (2-1) [21] - They lost, but they fought Oklahoma to the final minute
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) [20]
21. Houston Cougars (3-0) [18] - Not an impressive win for the Cougars
22. San Diego State Aztecs (3-0) [NR] - The Aztecs prove to be a force
23. Baylor Bears (2-0) [23]
24. Oregon Ducks (2-1) [25]
25. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-1) [8] - Suffering the longest drop, the Buckeyes need to shore up their offense or they may drop out of the Top 25 for the first time in years

Dropped:  Michigan State Spartans [#12], Auburn Tigers [#17], Washington State Cougars [#22]

Also in the mix:  USC Trojans (3-0), Virginia Tech Hokies (3-0), Ohio Bobcats (3-0), Temple Owls (2-1), Navy Midshipmen (2-1), Iowa State Cyclones (3-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-1), Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0), Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0), Central Florida Golden Knights (2-1), Washington Huskies (2-1)

NFL 2011 Week 2 picks

Not too many surprises in Week 1.  The Bears' dominance over the Falcons was a surprise, as was the phenomenal play of new Redskins QB (and former Bear) Rex Grossman.  The collapse of the Pittsburgh offense was the other surprise of the week.  I think they'll recover form this week.

Sunday early games:
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-0):  Despite a win against Carolina, Cardinals coach Ken Wisenhunt spent the week analyzing areas for improvement on the part of Arizona.  Their offense gained more yards than they did in 15 games last year, but the defense gave up too much.  That's cause for concern, given the 300-plus yard performance by Rex Grossman last week.  Grossman does well when he's feeling good.  Until he's threatened by a tough defense, he may continue to shine.  REDSKINS, 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-1):  The Ravens displayed a defensive showcase against the Steelers, shutting down everything Pittsburgh tried.  Expect a similar demonstration at Tennessee.  RAVENS, 31-7

Chicago Bears (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-1):  The Bears are likely to face the Saints without the help of defensive captain Brian Urlacher, who is with his family after the death of his mother.  That could be dangerous.  Urlacher is undeniably the heart of that defense, as he proved last week when his 12-yard interception-for-touchdown return sparked a lackluster game and spurred five sacks of Falcons QB Matt Ryan.  The team will attempt to rally, but without Urlacher, they won't maintain it.  SAINTS, 31-21

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1):  Oh, how the mighty have fallen!  Can you believe I would pick CLEVELAND to beat the Colts?  Yup.  Kerry Collins looked wooden last week.  That's to be expected, given the fact that he hadn't played a down in professional football in over a year and a half.  It'll take him time to get back into the swing of things, and Indy's complicated offensive scheme won't help him.  BROWNS, 17-10

Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-1):  There are some Panthers players guaranteeing a win against Green Bay.  Dumb!  That'll only motivate the defending Super Bowl Champs further.  At least Cam Newton is staying out of that talk, probably because he knows those Packer defenders would kill him if he painted a target on his back.  PACK, 35-13

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0):  Just the type of opponent Rex Ryan loves!  A struggling passing team dedicated to the ground game having to face that tough Jets defensive front.  Easy win for the Jersey boys.  JETS, 24-9

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0):  I'd have to dig out my records to find out the last time Detroit started a season 2-0 (those records are packed away).  It seems likely that they'll do it in 2011.  Shutting down the Chiefs' running game won't be as easy as it was shutting down Tampa's last week, but they should still do it.  Moreover, the Chiefs are a team killing THEMSELVES.  Dropped passes and miscommunication flourished in the preseason, and it didn't look like they solved those problems last week.  LIONS, 27-10

Oakland Raiders (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0):  The Bills scored early and often against the Chiefs last week.  Ryan Fitzgerald was stellar, but he got lots of support from RB Fred Jackson.  That run support will be harder to come by against the Raiders, who are tough against the run.  Touchdowns were hard for Oakland to get last week, and Denver's defense isn't hot.  The Raiders problem -- penalties, as usual.  I think Oakland will take a lead, but kill themselves in the fourth quarter.  BILLS, 17-13

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1):  The Steelers offense was anemic last week, but I think they'll improve.  Harder to figure is the collapse by the defense.  They're too good a defensive team to stay down, but that may take a little longer to fix.  Fortunately, they get a weak enough opponent to find time to fix them, although Seattle might sneak in a big play or two, just like they did against the Saints in last year's playoffs.  STEELERS, 24-20

Tampa Bay Bucs (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1):  If Minnesota wasn't in the same division as the Bears, I might not care about this game at all.  Neither of these teams looked good last week.  Bucs QB Josh Freeman passed for over 400 yards, but that's because the Bucs could do nothing on the ground.  The Vikings offense gained less than 200 yards; they were helped by two interceptions of Philip Rivers.  Donovan McNabb hardly threw, and likely with good reason.  I don't think the Vikings can succeed by relying on their defense -- it isn't as good as the Bears, Steelers, Ravens, etc.  BUCS, 17-9

Sunday late games:
Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Denver Broncos (0-1):  Denver played atrociously against the Raiders, but the Raiders on Monday Night tend to do that to opponents.  The Broncos offense couldn't find their rhythm, but that's not surprising for a team playing their first game with a new head coach, especially with the abridged preseason.  Cincy, however, has bigger problems.  The worst of those is a concern about the conditioning of the defensive squad (as stated by their coordinator to ESPN.com), which is NOT a good situation when playing in Mile High.  BRONCOS, 13-10

Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0):  Dallas led for three quarters against the Jets, but then committed typical Cowboys boneheaded manuevers.  It may take less time than that to fall behind to San Francisco.  While the offense sputtered for the 49ers, special teams was ablaze.  Former Buckeyes Ted Ginn Jr scored two touchdowns on returns, and the Cowboys don't cover kicks well.  Expect the 49ers to dominate in that squad again.  49ERS, 20-17

Houston Texans (1-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-1):  Chad Henne had a good game against New England; the Dolphins lost because their defense collapsed.  That could cost them against Houston, who have a ground-churning game that will frustrate a struggling defense.  Home field is no advantage for the Dolphins, who have won only once since moving to Sun Life stadium.  TEXANS, 30-24

San Diego Chargers (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0):  This could be the most exciting game of the game, especially if you like highlights.  The Pats and Fins combined for over 500 yards last week, and expect similar fireworks with these two.  The winner may be the last team to hold the ball, which means game planning and time management could win this game.  Few coaches do those better than Bill Belichik.  PATS, 31-27

Sunday Night game:
Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1):  I think the Falcons will play better than they did against Chicago, but the Eagles' offense will be pushing.  The reason?  Michael Vick returns to town, and he wants to prove that the Falcons should have given him a shot after he served his time for dogfighting.  Emotions, properly channeled, can fuel major results in this game, and nobody has better incentive than Vick in this game.  EAGLES, 34-27

Monday Night Football
St Louis Rams (0-1) at New York Giants (0-1):  The Giants should win the turnover battle, and likely win the game, but neither team will look impressive.  I figure there will be over 100 yards of penalties and less than 50% of all passes will be completed.  GIANTS, 21-17

NCAA 2011 Week 3 picks

With the Top 25 complete, let's get right to it...

Thursday, Sept 15
#11 LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  The Bulldogs might pull the upset, but I expect LSU to bear down and get serious, just like they did against Oregon. LSU

Friday, Sept 16
Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets:  Boise State got an extra week to prepare for this one, and they should win easily.  BOISE STATE

Iowa State Cyclones at UConn Huskies:  The Cyclones are still high from their upset over Iowa, and the Huskies aren't barking too loudly.  IOWA STATE

Top 25
#1 Stanford Cardinal at Arizona Wildcats:  Arizona is struggling, while the Cardinal continue to shine with Luck under center.  STANFORD

#3 Wisconsin Badgers at Northern Illinois Huskies:  Easy win for the offensive mighty Badgers.  WISCONSIN

#4 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane:  The Cowboys will outshoot, outrun, outscore, and outlast Tulsa.  OKLAHOMA STATE

North Texas Mean Green at #5 Alabama Crimson Tide:  You almost have to pity North Texas.  They start the season getting slaughtered by Florida International and it just goes downhill from there.  ALABAMA

Tennessee Volunteers at #6 Florida Gators:  I figured Tennessee's winning streak would end when they began conference play, and they picked a tough opening opponent.  FLORIDA

Idaho Vandals at #7 Texas A&M Aggies:  Easy win for the Aggies.  TEXAS A&M

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes at Miami Hurricanes:  Just in time, the Buckeyes get four players back, half of those who sat out the first two games.  Miami won't be pleased to see them.  OHIO STATE

Troy Trojans at #9 Arkansas Razorbacks:  A strong win here, but strength of schedule isn't likely to help the Razorbacks.  ARKANSAS

#10 Texas Longhorns at UCLA Bruins:  The Bruins are stronger than I thought, but a win here would be quite an upset.  I'm not biting.  TEXAS

#12 Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  The Irish fall to 0-3 as the Spartans continue their roll through non-conference opponents.  MICHIGAN STATE

Navy Midshipmen at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks:  Navy's running game seems to have run aground, giving South Carolina plenty of ways to capsize them.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Eastern Michigan Eagles at #14 Michigan Wolverines:  Another in-state rivalry game for the Big Ten, but this one won't end up like the Iowa clash last week.  MICHIGAN
#15 West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins:  Despite an extra week to prepare, I don't the Terrapins will pull off the upset.  WEST VIRGINIA

Arkansas State Red Wolves at #16 Virginia Tech Hokies:  The Hokies aren't going to climb in my Top 25 until they face REAL opposition!  VIRGINIA TECH

#17 Auburn Tigers at #19 Clemson Tigers:  Auburn will be everyone's choice, but watch out for Clemson.  I'll pick the visiting Tigers, but the hometown one is hungry, too.  AUBURN

#18 Houston Cougars at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs:  This one might be closer than Houston would like, but their unbeaten record should remain intact.  HOUSTON

Washington Huskies at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  The Cornhuskers have a chance to gain some Top 25 ground with an impressive win against the Huskies.  NEBRASKA

#22 Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs:  This will prove whether the Cougars are the real deal.  San Diego State has a good team, and the Cougars have to face them at home.  An impressive win here solidifies the Cougars' claim on the Top 25.

Stephen F Austin at #23 Baylor Bears:  Baylor waited a week for this?  This victory won't even help them in Top 25 rankings.

Central Florida Golden Knights at #24 Florida International Golden Panthers:  The Panthers will prove that they are the toughest "middle tier" Florida football power with this win.  FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Missouri State at #25 Oregon Ducks:  This game could even HURT Oregon's Top 25 ranking, especially if lower teams impressive against FBS opponents.  BAD scheduling here.

Big Ten
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls:  The Nittany Lions want a chance to get into the Top 25 and regain their footing after last week's embarrassing loss at Alabama, but Temple can be tricky.  I think Penn State will win, but this one could be dangerously close.  PENN STATE

Pittsburgh Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes:  Lord knows Iowa should win, and they'll want a win after their loss to the Cyclones, but Pitt doesn't look as bad as predicted.  Watch out here.  IOWA

Southeast Missouri State at Purdue Boilermakers:  This should be a strong victory, and give the Boilermakers hope for the recovery of their ailing quarterbacks.  PURDUE

South Carolina State at Indiana Hoosiers:  A winnable game for Indiana, who has hung in there against FBS opponents.  INDIANA

Miami Ohio Redhawks at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Minnesota should win this game.  I figure they were shocked enough last week to wake them up.  MINNESOTA

Northwestern Wildcats at Army Black Knights:  Northwestern marches over the Cadets.  NORTHWESTERN

Arizona State Sun Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini:  My Illini have had two strong victories, but they played weak teams.  This is their first real opposition, and they won't prevail.  ARIZONA STATE

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #2 Oklahoma Sooners at #21 Florida State Seminoles:  The Seminoles are claiming that they have returned to greatness this year, and this is a chance for them to prove it.  I don't think anyone outside Tallahassee really expects Florida State to win, but if they can play Oklahoma close, they might impress.  Their defense will be challenged here.  If they can stay sharp and keep watch over the speedy Oklahoma offense, they might lose by less than two touchdowns.  OKLAHOMA

The rest
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores:  Ole Miss doesn't look as good as I thought, while Vandy is having a good run.  I think the Commodores will make the most of the momentum they've built.  VANDERBILT

Kansas Jayhawks at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  Kansas is 2-0 against weak opponents.  This is Tech's time to go out there and gain a big win.  GEORGIA TECH

Syracuse Orange at USC Trojans:  The Trojans end Syracuse's winning streak, and it should be easy.  USC

Utah Utes at BYU Cougars:  Both of these teams have failed to impress so far this season, so this game is crucial.  I think the advantage lies with BYU, as Utah has more external pressure, as they are expected to win this game and compete for the Pac-12 title.  BYU in a stunner

NCAA 2011 - Top 25 from Week 2

We had fewer upsets this week, and they ALL centered around the Big Ten conference.  Minnesota, who played USC so tough in Week 1, failed to overcome a charge by the New Mexico State Aggies, a team slaughtered by Ohio University in Week 1.  Purdue's injury problems showed against Rice, as the Owls stomach-punched them for a 24-22 victory.  Lastly, the in-state rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State heated up, as the Cyclones posted a three overtime home stand and beat their rivals by three points.

Okay, on to the Top 25.  I'll review my rules for new to my column.  I consider strength of schedule more than point spreads, and I don't count the point spread in games against FCS opponents.  Any team with a losing point spread, REGARDLESS of record, will not be considered, and any team who has not yet played a FBS team will not be considered.  That said, here is the first TOP 25 of the 2011 season:

1.  Stanford Cardinal (2-0) : No real surprise here.  Andrew Luck returned for a shot at the National Championship, and they are dominating opponents.
2.  Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)
3.  Wisconsin Badgers (2-0): A bit of a surprise here - they have been demonstrated one of the strongest and most consistent offenses in FBS
4.  Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-0)
5.  Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) : recovered nicely from their 4 INT performance in Week 1
6.  Florida Gators (2-0) : This team may be better than I gave them credit for being
7.  Texas A&M Aggies (1-0)
8.  Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0) : Despite suspensions, the team keeps rolling
9.  Arkansas Razorbacks (2-0) : They might even be a bit better without Ryan Mallet
10. Texas Longhorns (2-0):  Rebuilding year?  Maybe not
11. LSU Tigers (2-0):  Great victory over Oregon, but they relaxed too much this week.
12. Michigan State Spartans (2-0):  I told you last year wasn't a fluke!
13. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0)
14. Michigan Wolverines (2-0) : Impressive win over Notre Dame
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0):  Once again, the best in the Big East
16. South Florida Bulls (2-0):  Looking to give West Virginia some competition, they began the beatings against the Irish
17. Auburn Tigers (2-0) : The defending champs haven't been overly dominant, but they have been effective
18. Houston Cougars (2-0)
19. Clemson Tigers (2-0)
20. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0) : Not so strong considering competition
21. Florida State Seminoles (2-0)
22. Washington State Cougars (2-0):  Whoa!  Where did all of that offense come from?
23. Baylor Bears (1-0):  Impressive upset over TCU.  They would be higher, but TCU has been struggling
24. Florida International Golden Panthers (2-0):  I have never had a Sun Belt team in my first Top 25, but the Panthers chose an excellent Week 2 opponent for strength of schedule, and then knocked them around
25. Oregon Ducks (1-1):  Nice recovery from LSU

Also in the mix:
USC Trojans (2-0), Boise State Broncos (1-0), Central Florida Golden Knights (2-0), Temple Owls (2-0), Arizona State Sun Devils (2-0), Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0), Tennessee Volunteers (2-0), Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1), Iowa State Cyclones (1-1)

NFL 2011 Week 1 picks

Welcome back to NFL Football!  An abridged preseason may make for some interesting play in the early weeks, but many teams seem ready for the season.  I think some coaches needed longer to make good decisions (Rex Grossman starting over John Beck?  Ugh!), but the season officially begins tomorrow.

Thursday, Sept 8
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers:  The NFL continues its recent tradition of starting the season with the two previous Super Bowl champs.  Both of these teams are strong and preserved most of their team.  The Saints lost Reggie Bush, but I don't think they'll miss him much.  The Saints, if anything, got better due to some great free agency acquisistions.  That makes this game interesting.  This will be a close contest, as each team pulls out all the stops.  I usually favor the home team in these close contests, and I'll do so again.  PACKERS, 27-24

Sunday early games:
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears:  The Bears are healthy, but the Falcons offense is just too fast for the Bears.  Chicago will score some of their own, as the Falcons are still adjusting to a new defensive scheme and squad, but Matty Ice and company will still record the win.  FALCONS, 31-21

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs:  Yesterday's signing of David Gerrard changes the scope of things for KC.  Not their immediate future, as Gerrard has to learn a new system, but it shows that the Chiefs have lost faith in Matt Cassel.  I don't think Cassel is source of most of their problems, so a change in quarterback won't entirely fix the Chiefs problems.  Buffalo will still beat them this week, and the future will depend on other acquisitions and changes the Chiefs do.  BILLS, 26-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns:  Both teams are still well behind the Steelers and Ravens in the division, especially on offense.  Cleveland has the better offense.  The loss of Rob Ryan leading the defense, and the installation of a new defensive scheme, hurts their defense.  Still, I think the gap in the teams' respective offenses is larger than the gap in the defenses, allowing Cleveland to scrape by with a win.  BROWNS, 17-13

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Bucs:  This looks to be the year Detroit gets back on the winning side.  The Bucs are still adjusting (they needed a longer preseason!), but the Lions are in top shape right now.  Matt Stafford has the Lions offense clicking, and new defensive additions in the past two years has shaped up the defense.  The Bucs have a good defense, too, but the offense isn't quite there, giving the Lions a win to open the season.  LIONS, 24-16

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans:  Peyton Manning is out, and Kerry Collins hasn't started a game in two years.  I understand the philosophy, as Collins' experience is probably an advantage against Houston, but they should have at least considered playing Curtis Painter.  He was steadily improving during the off-season, and he knows the system and the receivers better.  It will take Collins time to adjust to the offense, time the Texans will take to score a win against their division rival.  TEXANS, 20-10

Philadelphia Eagles at St Louis Rams:  Dream Team the Eagles ain't, but the Rams are pretty far from that description as well.  The Eagles offense is working, which is more than can be said for St Louis.  EAGLES, 34-6

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens:  These two always play each other tough.  While both teams have good offenses, this will be a defensive showdown.  I'd like to favor Pittsburgh, but the Ravens proved during preseason that they have some new surprises, so I'll give them an edge in this meeting.  Pittsburgh should win in their next meeting, though.  RAVENS, 20-17

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars:  The loss of David Gerrard makes this a more interesting pick.  I had no problem picking Jacksonville when Gerrard would be leading the team, but Luke McCown was sporadic during preseason.  Hasselbeck is definitely the better player, and has the better wide receiver targets, but Jacksonville has been primarily a running team the past few years, especially since the acquisition of Maurice Jones-Drew.  I think this game will be close, and the passing magic of Matt Hasselbeck will engineer the winning touchdown.  TITANS, 20-17

Sunday late games:
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals:  Both teams start with new quarterbacks, but Arizona has the experience in Kevin Kolb.  Cam Newton showed ability during preseason, but he is still too prone to run to get out of trouble.  In preseason, when teams are trying not to get players hurt, he was allowed to get away with it.  Come regular season, he'll find that more difficult.  Kolb can scramble, but he has the better field sense to keep passing an option.  CARDINALS, 16-10

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers:  Donovan McNabb is still loosening up and still learning the Vikings system, while the Chargers are pumped, primed, and ready.  This one is the easiest pick of all.  CHARGERS, 31-9

New York Giants at Washington Redskins:  I don't care that Rex Grossman looked good in preseason; he could look good in preseason when he played in Chicago.  It's the pressure of the actual game that causes him to force plays, and that's when he makes his mistakes.  Making those mistakes against a defense like the Giants is just asking to give the game away, which he will.  The defense might do better moving the ball than the offense will!  GIANTS, 17-6

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers:  Here is a matchup of two struggling quarterbacks:  Tavaris Jackson for the Seahawks and Alex Smith for the 49ers.  At least Smith has the advantage of knowing the system.  The Seahawks surprised New Orleans in the playoffs, but they had no business playing in the postseason.  They underachieved during the season, and I don't see them pushing themselves hard this season.  On the other hand, Jim Harbaugh has motivated HIS underachieving team; look for the 49ers to play above themselves.  49ERS, 16-10

Sunday night game:  Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets:  The Cowboys have been inconsistent in the preseason, sometimes looking sharp and sometimes looking confused.  No defense can confuse a team more than the Jets, so look for Dallas to struggle here.  JETS, 24-13

Monday, Sept 12
We have two games on Monday to start the season, a new practice which I'm not sure I like (I have an early class on Tuesday!).  However, it doubles the pleasure of NFL fans, who get twice as many nationally televised games.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:  Tom Brady and company are healthy and ready for another postseason run.  Miami should improve with improvement from Henne, but we don't know if Reggie Bush can handle full-time running duties.  The Dolphins' defense also has some question marks, which paves the way for a Patriots win.  These games are often high-scoring, but I think Miami's offense is still gelling.  PATS, 34-20

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos:  Denver is a team in disarray, with bad feelings and issues with new coach John Fox.  The defense improved, but they had no place to go but up.  Also, the Raiders play very well on Monday Night.  So, of course, my pick is... Denver.  Huh?  Simply put, the AFC West teams seem to know how to get under the Raiders' skin, and the Raiders play emotionally.  If they get mad or flustered, they made costly mistakes.  That will be the difference in the game.  BRONCOS, 27-23

NCAA 2011 - Week 1 Review and Week 2 picks

What a crazy opening weekend!  In nearly thirty years of reporting on college football, I've never seen so many weather-delayed games in one weekend.

As I stated last week, I will not be producing a Top 25 until after next week's games, so I'll begin my recap with analyzing how the major conferences performed over the weekend.  I'll start with my home conference:

Big Ten: The classic conference had a strong opening weekend.  Of course, it helped that many of the teams played patsy opponents.  Ten of the twelve teams won their games.  Minnesota lost, but they played USC tough, and lost by only two points.  It may have taken their defense a while to focus on WR Robert Woods, but once they started covering him, his yardage dropped significantly.  We also discovered that Matt Barkley doesn't really trust any other targets than Woods, which exposes a weakness in the Trojans' offense.  Purdue struggled in their victory, but that can be excused considering they were playing with their third-string quarterback, due to injuries to their first two.  That does mean Purdue will have troubles until their starter heals.

Ohio State demonstrated how deep their roster is, as the loss of EIGHT players (four suspended for five games, two suspended for two games due to improper $300 benefits, and two academically ineligible - and how can that happen so soon in the season?) didn't stop them from demolishing Akron.  Michigan's game was less than 3/4 the normal length and they still beat MAC contender Western Michigan by 24 points; a great beginning for Brady Hoke.  It took a little while for Wisconsin's and Illinois' offenses to wake up, but then they consistently drove down the field.

Pac-12:  Not as good a start for the newly expanded conference.  Their newcomers split their games - Colorado did ok in their loss to Hawaii but Utah's offense seemed anemic, even in victory.  I already mentioned that USC seems to have offensive problems of their own.  On the other hand, both UCLA and Washington State had strong offenses.  Stanford did, too, but that was expected. 

Cal did great and the two Arizona teams did okay, but Washington struggled against a FCS team.  Oregon made too many mistakes to look like a national title contender, and Oregon State was defeated by their FCS opponent.

Big XII:  Recordwise, it seemed a perfect weekend for the Big XII.  However, some of the victories were squeakers against weak opponents, causing concern for some coaches.  Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M all seem solid.  Baylor's offense exploded, enabling them to upset BCS contender TCU.  Both Kansas and Oklahoma State had porous defenses this week, while both Missouri and Kansas State struggled to score points against FCS opponents.  Iowa State just seemed poor on all sides of the ball.

SEC:  This conference only suffered two losses, but again there were concerns with winning teams.  Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt all performed well in their opening weekends, although four interceptions by the Tide's two quarterbacks is cause for concern.  The defense prevented Kent State from capitalizing, but they need to cut those out before conference play, or Alabama stands no chance of winning their division.

LSU was strong and Mississippi State is a force (okay, I admit I may have misjudged them).  Both South Carolina and Auburn need to work on their defense (Auburn needs to work on their defense?  My, how unusual!) while Kentucky and Ole Miss have problems on offense.  Georgia started well, but they seemed to run out of gas early.

Let's look at the upsets and near upsets.  It seemed we might be in for an upset-filled weekend when the first upset happened on Friday night, but Saturday calmed.  A few teams squeaked by, those, and many of those against FCS opponents.  Kansas State's offense could only muster ten points against Eastern Kentucky, winning by a mere field goal.  Maybe they need to find even a weaker team to start their season.  Washington let in-state rival Eastern Washington score 27 points, and also won by just a field goal.  Wyoming also squeaked by with a field goal victory after spotting Weber State 32 points (geez, where was the defense on THAT team!).  Little Stony Brook sent UTEP into overtime before the Miners could put the game away.

One FCS team did successfully pull off an upset, and it was in classic overtime style.  Sacramento State kept pace with the offensive anemic Oregon State Beavers, and the two teams entered overtime tied at 21.  The Beavers won the toss, and scored a touchdown on their possession.  Sacramento went next, and scored a touchdown on their possession. Down by an extra point, they chose to go for two instead of playing another overtime period.  Their conversion was successful, and Sacramento beat the Beavers on the road.

Two other games were last minutes thrillers.  The Utah State Aggies had engineered a perfect upset against the Auburn Tigers, and led by ten points in the final minute and a half.  Then came the last minute heroics the SEC is known for.  The Tigers scored a touchdown, successfully kicked an on-side kick, and ran the ball for another touchdown.  Two touchdowns in sixty-three minutes, and the Tigers escaped victorious, but concerned.  The other last minute squeaker DID end in an upset, and it was our first one of the 2011 season.  TCU and Baylor exchanged scores all night, as Baylor QB Robert Griffin III racked up 347 yards and five touchdowns.  Baylor led by two late in the fourth, until TCU scored their final touchdown to take a 50-45 lead.  Things looked bleak, but TCU gave Baylor too much time (even though TCU didn't think so).  A good kickoff return put Baylor in good field position, and they needed less than 45 seconds to set up for the winning field goal.

Week 2 picks
Okay, time to look at the games for Week 2.  We still have teams playing FCS opponents (Eastern Michigan plays their SECOND), but we have enough cross-conference competition to establish a Top 25 when Sunday dawns.

Thursday, Sept 8
Arizona Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys may have some concerns about their defense, but with their offense, those problems don't have to fixed quickly.  OKLAHOMA STATE

Friday, Sept 9
Missouri Tigers at Arizona State Sun Devils:  The Tigers offense sputtered last week.  If they can't get it fired up quickly, they'll find themselves in a hole against an effective Sun Devil offense.  ARIZONA STATE

Saturday, Sept 10:
Big Ten
Oregon State Beavers at Wisconsin Badgers:  The Beavers go 0-2 as the Badgers just grind up the turf and the clock.  Nothing will frustrate the Beavers more than a ball-hogging running game and quick defense.  WISCONSIN

Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans:  The Spartans will take apart the Owls as they go 2-0, admittedly against easy prey.  MICHIGAN STATE

Toledo Rockets at Ohio State Buckeyes:  Eight players still sit on the bench for this game, but I'm not as concerned about that as I was a week ago.  Toledo is a good team, but the Buekeyes should still win, although probably not as easily as last week.  OHIO STATE

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones:  This in-state rivalry has often given problems to the Hawkeyes, but the Cyclones stink this season.  IOWA

South Dakota State at Illinois Fighting Illini:  Another patsy for the Illini, but I don't mind.  They'll struggle when conference play starts, so it's nice to see them win now.  ILLINOIS

Alabama Crimson Tide at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Look out, but I'm declaring an upset!  The new Tide quarterbacks don't have good downfield vision.  That lack resulted in four interceptions last week.  Even if they reduce that for this game, the Lions will make them pay.  I predict at least one pick six, which might be the difference in the ball game.  PENN STATE

Eastern Illinois at Northwestern Wildcats:  Boston College played the Wildcats close last week, but Eastern Illinois won't give them too much trouble.  NORTHWESTERN

New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  After holding USC to only 19 points, the Gophers defense might shut out the Aggies, although I figure they'll bring in second team and allow them one score.  MINNESOTA

Purdue Boilermakers at Rice Owls:  Purdue has to be happy they start the season with easy teams while their quarterbacks heal.  PURDUE

Fresno State Bulldogs at Nebraska Cornhuskers:  The Bulldogs were predicted to do well, but a loss to Cal last week puts their record in jeopardy.  A loss here removes "BCS Buster" from their banners this season.  NEBRASKA

Virginia Cavaliers at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Hoosiers lost to Ball State on the road.  An impressive victory for Virginia last week convinces me that they have some power this season, perhaps more than Indiana can handle.  VIRGINIA

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines:  You know, I figured Michigan would lose this game when I compiled my preseason predictions.  After the two teams' respective showings last week, though, I've changed my mind.  Notre Dame couldn't handle a rebuilt South Florida team at home; going on the road to the Big House against a revitalized Wolverine team won't be easy.  MICHIGAN in an upset

GAME OF THE WEEK:  Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers:  The Bulldogs are for real, while the Tigers defense doesn't seem to be.  I thought this would be an easy game for the defending National Champs, but now I think the "easy" label goes to the other team.  Auburn is capable of great comebacks (just ask Utah State!), but the Bulldogs are a bit tougher on defense than the Aggies.  MISSISSIPPI STATE

The rest:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at North Carolina Tar Heels:  North Carolina is making a bid for my first Top 25.  A strong win here will help.  NORTH CAROLINA

Norfolk State at West Virginia Mountaineers:  Easy victory against a FCS also-ran.  WEST VIRGINIA

Nevada Wolf Pack at Oregon Ducks:  The Ducks need an impressive win to wash away the stink of last week's performance.  I think they'll win, but Nevada might make it tough.  OREGON

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue Devils:  As expected, Duke lost to their FCS opponent (happens most years).  This will be another easy victory for Stanford and their new coach.  STANFORD

Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates:  South Carolina proved that the Pirates' defense is weak this year, so Beamer Ball (which has been extended another three years) will run amok.  VIRGINIA TECH

TCU Horned Frogs at Air Force Falcons:  TCU has to erase the emotional upset suffered at Waco last week.  Air Force let South Dakota score way too much last week, so a porous defense is exactly the opponent TCU wants this week.  TCU

Hawaii Warriors at Washington Huskies:  I usually pick Hawaii to lose when they leave the islands, but the Huskies' pathetic showing against Eastern Washington exposes weaknesses that the Warriors might be able to exploit.  HAWAII

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs:  This was a contender for Game of the Week.  The Bulldogs showed promise against Boise State last week, but they petered out.  The Gamecocks keep fighting until the final gun, which should give them the edge.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Charleston Southern at Florida State Seminoles:  Another patsy, another easy victory.  FLORIDA STATE

New Mexico Lobos at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas continues its battle for division supremacy.  ARKANSAS

UAB Blazers at Florida Gators:  Maybe Florida won't have such a down year after all, given their performance last week.  Getting past tricky UAB will be a true measure.  FLORIDA

Houston Cougars at North Texas Mean Green:  North Texas was demolished by Florida International, and now the Cougars come to town.  What a tough start to the season!  HOUSTON

BYU Cougars at Texas Longhorns:  In my preseason compilation, I thought this might be a BYU victory.  They still might pull it out, but based upon BYU's lackluster performance last week and Texas' awesome victory, I have to go the other way.  TEXAS

Utah Utes at USC Trojans:  The Utes will exploit USC's exposed weaknesses on offense.  Furthermore, the Utes have a better offense than Minnesota.  This won't be a close victory for the Trojans; in fact, it won't be a victory for them AT ALL.  UTAH

Northwestern State at LSU Tigers:  The Tigers get an easy game to relax from the Ducks' game, although I'm not sure they needed it.  LSU

NFL 2011 - NFC preview

This conference has the reigning Super Bowl Champion, but in general I think the AFC has stronger teams.  The Number One draft pick will likely be given to a team in this conference, and it might even be the same team.

NFC East
1.  Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 6-0 against division opponents):  Dream Team?  I don't think so.  The offense is working, but the defense isn't as strong.  Problems during preseason games showed that this team lacks depth at key positions, so injuries will hurt them.

2.  Washington Redskins (8-8, 3-3):  Why the heck is Washington starting Rex Grossman this weekend?  Cripes, the Bears kicked him out because he was erratic.  QB John Beck spend the preseason proving that he could lead the team, and can definitely do it better than Grossman.  I think the Redskins will hurt themselves during the season by making decisions as stupid as this one.

3.  Dallas Cowboys (6-10, 2-4):  Rob Ryan has sparked the defense, but the squad is still thin.  Injuries will diminish them.  Dallas' "December curse" might start as early as the second week of November, depending upon who is healthy.  The Cowboys also need more consistent play from Tony Romo and Felix Jones so that the offense can flow.

4.  New York Giants (5-11, 1-5):  The Giants are falling apart.  Is this the same team that beat an unbeaten Patriots in Super Bowl XLII?  Actually, it isn't.  The Giants have lost so many players from that squad that it ISN'T the same team.  This proves that Eli Manning can't produce without high quality support.  As the team has lost talent, they've lost offensive power, too.

NFC North
1.  Green Bay Packers (12-4, 4-2; 1st round bye):  This team is well-set to defend their Super Bowl title.  They held onto most of their roster, so they'll compete once again.

2.  Detroit Lions (10-6, 4-2; playoffs):  The Lions return to the postseason (ending the longest draught in the league) as Matt Stafford and the offense build on their preseason success.  The defense even looks good, which is a crucial squad in this division.

3.  Chicago Bears (9-7, 3-3):  Marion Barber takes over as third down specialist after the Bears release Chester Taylor.  That's okay; I'm more concerned about the rotating tackles on their roster.  That shows some uncertainty surrounding the defense, and a slim depth at that position.  That means injuries could kill their postseason chances.

4.  Minnesota Vikings (4-12, 1-5):  This team is taking a chance on Donovan McNabb.  McNabb struggled last season, and I don't think he can completely excuse it on recovering from his injury.  I think McNabb is simply getting too old.  He can't scramble anymore, which is bad in a league that is seeing faster and faster defenders. He's likely to get injured again in this "black and blue" division, and that brings up journeyman Joe Webb, who has barely played.

NFC South
1.  New Orleans Saints (13-3, 5-1; 1st round bye):  The Saints are back to 2009 form, when they won the Super Bowl.  Actually, they might be slightly better, as they have improved the defense.

2.  Atlanta Falcons (12-4, 5-1; playoffs):  They have a strong offense and a good defense, but they are thin at places.  Defensive injuries could slow them down later in the season.

3.  Tampa Bay Bucs (7-9, 2-4):  The Bucs have decent squads on both offense and defense, but a tough schedule like theirs demands more than "decent" to be successful.  Defense has been a problem in recent years, but the addition of Da'Quan Bowers helps them.

4.  Carolina Panthers (2-14, 0-6):  Is Cam Newton ready to lead a young and inexperienced wide receiving corps?  I'm not sure.  The Panthers' offense has additional pressure, as they'll probably have to come from behind in every game, since their defense has problems.

NFC West
1.  Arizona Cardinals (9-7, 4-2):  The team gained a boost by obtaining QB Kevin Kolb.  As he proved in Philly, he can perform.  His passes are strong and his field sense is sharp, something Arizona hasn't had since Kurt Warner left.  Kolb has good receivers to support him, and perhaps the best tight end in Todd Heap.  The defense has some weak spots, but the offense will be strong enough to win games.

2.  St Louis Rams (6-10, 4-2):  QB Sam Bradford has some talented targets available to him, but they need to improve on yards after catch.  They catch plenty of passes, but scoring is down.  Worse, the defense has some holes, so that offense has to perform.

3.  San Francisco 49ers (4-12, 3-3):  New coach Jim Harbaugh has restored confidence to this team, but how long will that last if the wins don't come?  QB Alex Smith is too inconsistent, and RB Frank Gore is getting old and injury-prone.  With a secondary that can't seem to keep pace with their opponents, this team is in for a tough year.

4.  Seattle Seahawks (2-14, 1-5):  Let's face it, Tavaris Jackson is not the solution at quarterback.  This team has so many holes, they might as well watch NCAA College Football and decide who they want to draft.  They'll have their choice.

NFL 2011 - AFC preview

It's been an interesting preseason, but at least we had one.  There were points during the off-season that we thought a clash of egos would prevent a timely start to the season.  Perhaps the tenth anniversary of 9/11, with games in both DC and NYC, gave them added incentive.  Whatever the reason, the shortened offseason had caused some interesting shifts in some teams, while others preserved their rosters.

AFC East
1.  New York Jets (13-3, 6-0 against divisional opponents; 1st round playoff bye):  A favorable schedule makes them a top contender for the AFC crown.  They've made two consecutive AFC title games, but stumbled at the finish line.  They hope the addition of Plaxico Burress will give them that added boost.  He has been slow to get back to form, but he seems heading in that direction.
  
They need Plaxico to return to form.  Mark Sanchez is a capable QB, but he will never be one of the top QBs in the league.  He needs a strong roster to support him, which he does.  This could be the best year of Rex Ryan's tenure.

2.  New England Patriots (10-6, 4-2; playoffs):  Chad Ochocinco is, so far, proving a match for QB Tom Brady.  The running game is strong with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk.  The defense was bolstered in the offseason, but the loss of Brandon Merriweather will hurt the secondary.  This team also has a problem with getting careless in games.  If they can remain focused, they can compete for the conference title.

3.  Miami Dolphins (8-8, 1-5):  Reggie Bush has been giving full-time running back duties, something he's never done since his junior year at USC.  Can he manage that?  The strong offensive line helps, but he still needs to stay in shape to last 75-80% of offensive snaps for 16 weeks.  I question his durability.
  
The running game isn't the only source of concern with Miami.  The defensive line has some holes, and the secondary is thin.  This makes them susceptible to good running teams, and injuries might make them susceptible to the passing game.  They will likely get worse as the season progresses.

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-10, 1-5): Quarterback Ryan Fitzgerald looks good, but he has few talented receivers.  A limited number of targets means good defenses will cover them.  When that happens, the Bills have some decent runners.  The problem with all of these is the offensive line.  The line is weak, which means Fitzgerald won't have much time to look for alternative receivers, and runners will not be able to gain many yards per carry.  In addition, the defense needs some support, too.  The fans have high hopes, but this won't be an excellent year for Buffalo.

AFC North
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3, 5-1; 1st round bye):  The Steelers have a nice schedule.  This team wants to return to the Super Bowl and win it this time, and they might have the chance to do that.  They didn't lose much talent in this off-season, so the chance of reaching the Super Bowl is good.  The Steelers have had injury problems, and they are likely to be worse this year as many of their talented players are getting old, but the Steelers have a deep enough roster to overcome injuries.  The talent of their backups was certainly demonstrated last season, when the team went 3-1 during Big Ben's four-game suspension.

2.  Baltimore Ravens (13-3, 5-1; playoffs):  They have some new receivers this year, but they're good.  Their biggest problem lies in the tight end position, where they lost Todd Heap.  Their receiving corps is also somewhat thin, so injuries could slow their offense.  Like Pittsburgh, their best defenders are getting old, but they don't quite have the depth on defense that the Steelers do.

3.  Cleveland Browns (6-10, 1-5):  Colt McCoy leads a thin receiving corps.  They have a strong running back in Peyton Hillis, but not much else.  Any injuries stop the offense.  Their young defense will learn the ropes, but it will take time.  In this division, it'll also be a tough education.  Worst, the schedule to close the season is terrible.

4.  Cincinnati Bengals (4-12, 1-5):  Andy Dalton takes over under center as Carson Palmer abandons the team as a final act of defiance regarding the agreement that ended the work stoppage.  Principles and ideals are fine, but I don't think his teammates think much of his principles now.  Dalton was okay during preseason, but he still needs work.  With the release of Cedric Benson, the running game is now fractured.  Several new receivers puts the final negative on the offense.  The defense has some good spots, but there are enough holes that they won't win without an offense.

AFC South
1.  Indianapolis Colts (9-7, 5-1):  Kerry Collins is likely to play much of the first two games as Peyton's neck keeps him out.  The Colts have a deep roster of receivers, as they kept many of the ones they had to bring in last year when injuries devastated their receiving corps.  Now they have to deal with giving each receiver enough catches to soothe their egos.  The defense, which was their weak point last season, was bolstered by free agency, gaining Tommie Harris and Jamaal Anderson.

2.  Houston Texans (9-7, 3-3):  This team is talented but underachieving.  This team needs to gain consistency, especially against division opponents.  They never seem to have both squads working at the same time.  Prior to last year, the defense led this team.  Last year the offense came on, but the defense fell.  If both can play well this year, they could win the division.

3.  Tennessee Titans (6-10, 2-4):  The Titans have quite a favorable schedule.  Matt Hasselbeck takes over as quarterback until Jake Locker is ready.  Hasselbeck has to learn an entirely new offensive scheme.  He's experienced enough that he will adjust, but it might take some time.  More importantly is the timing between his receivers and him.

4.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11, 2-4):  This is a very young and inexperienced receiving corps.  The five starters achieved a total of only 1200 yards and five touchdowns last year.  They have a good offensive backfield and a strong defense, but that won't be sufficient to reach the playoffs.

AFC West
1.  San Diego Chargers (11-5, 6-0):  The Chargers lost little on offense during the off-season, so this will be a high-scoring bunch.  Their defense improved with the acquisitions of Bob Sanders and Takeo Spikes, so this will be a dangerous team.

2.  Oakland Raiders (5-11, 3-3):  The Raiders have a good offense, so we'll hope they're smart enough to park Terrell Pryor on the bench.  Where they SHOULD have spent their supplemental draft pick was on defense.  That squad lost some talent during the off-season, and the best players remaining are aging.  Injuries will severely cripple the defense.

3.  Denver Broncos (4-12, 2-4):  Tim Tebow is the Number 3 quarterback, and he isn't happy about it.  He'd be better off sitting down, shutting up, and watching Kyle Orton run the offense.  Tebow got used to a plethora of talent when he was at Florida.  Denver doesn't have as much, as they have a thin rank of talented receivers.  The running game is suffering, too, which is ironic from the team that had the longest stretch of 1000-yard rushers in the league only three years ago.

4.  Kansas City Chiefs (2-14, 1-5):  While a poor preseason doesn't always predict a poor regular season, I think it does in this case.  The defense is weak, the receiving corps is thin, and Matt Cassel has few targets other than Dwayne Bowe.  As has been shown in all of their preseason games, defenses can cover Bowe.