NCAA Week 5 picks

Let's finish last week before we look at this week.  We had four fantastic upsets this week.  None of them involved FCS teams; we already have more FCS v FBS upsets (seven) than any other year.  No, this time it was FBS teams beating up on each other, and the state of Mississippi led the charge.  Mississippi State, perennial doormat in the SEC, pushed around the Georgia Bulldogs to win 24-12.  This one wasn't a tremendous shocker, as Mississippi State recently has won one SEC upset each year, and Georgia hasn't been great.  However, the Ole Miss Rebels had the bigger blast.  After all, the Rebels had the first loss to a FCS team this season, and they've looked God awful.  Saturday, however, they scored 55 points to up-end the Fresno State Bulldogs (hmm, two upsets by Mississippi teams against Bulldgos.  They don't seem to like that breed!).

The SEC wasn't the only source of upsets.  The ACC threw in one, and it was a shut-out besides.  Virginia Tech had struggled in the early part of the season, while Boston College was competing for top team in the conference.  The Hokies came to town, and they completely shut down the Eagles' offense, winning 19-0.  It marked redemption for Virginia Tech, and put a scare into BC Coach Frank Spaziani.

That was impressive, but perhaps the most significant upset happened in Austin, Texas.  The UCLA Bruins, after being a preseason Top 25 team, started the season struggling badly.  They lost to Kansas State, a team who typically struggles early against decent teams, and were shut out by Stanford.  Even a victory against Houston couldn't perk up Coach Rich Neuheisel.  So the team rolled into Austin to face a National Championship contender, and Top 25 team.  Nobody was thinking back to the last time UCLA met Texas on their home turf, a 1997 match-up when a winless Bruins team routed 11th ranked Texas 66-3.  Although the score was much different, the result was the same, as UCLA defeated Texas 34-12 and tumbled them to the bottom of the Top 25.  Now Texas has to travel to Norman to face Top 10 Oklahoma.  Will the UCLA upset trigger a downward spiral, just like 1997, or will the Longhorns get themsevles motivated against their hated rival?  Hold on, we'll get to that game.

Thurs Sept 30
Texas A&M Aggies at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Aggies have started the season well, but now they enter Big XII conference play, and they played opponents too weak to properly prepare.  Worse, they start against the toughest offense in the conference.  COWBOYS

Fri Oct 1
BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies:  Different Aggies team, same result.  BYU gets to reverse their disasterous season by beating the Aggies.  If the Aggies pull off the upset, BYU might as well write off this season and start planning for next year.  BYU

Top Ten
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini:  The Illini have proven to be better than I expected, but upsetting Ohio State might be asking too much.  Of course, Illinois is the only team to upset the Buckeyes twice in Jim Tressel's reign, so I can't dismiss the possibility.  Still, it seems like Ohio State should wrap up this game early.  OHIO STATE

#7 Florida Gators at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide:  Perhaps the most exciting SEC contest happens early.  If Alabama gets past the Gators, their trip to Baton Rouge to face LSU might be the only obstacle to a second consecutive unbeaten season.  ALABAMA

#9 Stanford Cardinal at #3 Oregon Ducks:  Our second battle of Top Ten teams, but this time I go out on a limb and pick the upset.  Stanford has been impressive so far this season.  Oregon has made me a believe, believing they can move their offense without disgraced QB Jeremiah Masoli, but Stanford can be tricky.  Ever since Jim Harbough arrived, the Cardinal has beaten one ranked (or nearly so) Pac-10 team each season.  While Stanford is now among the ranks of the ranked, I think Oregon will be the target this season, especially since they have suffered a conference upset at home for each of the past four years.  STANFORD

#6 Boise State Broncos at New Mexico State Aggies:  This should be an easy game for the Broncos.  BOISE STATE

#10 TCU Horned Frogs at Colorado State Rams:  The Rams have had a horrendous year, losing to everyone but hapless Idaho, and they only beat the Vandals by two.  This should be an easy battle for TCU.  TCU

#12 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers:  Indiana has had it easy so far.  This contest will truly test them, and I think they'll fail.  Michigan has shown that they have it together, saving Rich Rodriquez's job and placing them in second place in the strong Big 10 conference.  MICHIGAN

#13 Nevada Wolfpack at UNLV Running Rebels:  With Fresno State's loss, Nevada is the favorite to be the strongest team that will remain in the WAC (once Boise State leaves for the Mountain West).  Nevada is having a powerful season, as their offense is running over everyone.  UNLV is next.  NEVADA

Tennessee Volunteers at #14 LSU Tigers:  The Vols are trying to rebuild, but the LSU defense will stifle them.  LSU

Washington Huskies at #15 USC Trojans:  Washington and Jake Locker aren't living up to preseason hype.  Locker's name is quickly fading from Heisman ballots, and Washington's chances are looking bleak.  After this game, they'll be grim.  USC

#20 Wisconsin Badgers at #16 Michigan State Spartans:  This should be a close game.  The Badgers usually find a way to win, so I'm tempted to pick them, but Sparty has shown some unexpected strength this season.  They might surprise the Badgers, so I'll pick them, but watch out for Wisconsin.  MICHIGAN STATE

Louisiana-Monroe Indians at #17 Auburn Tigers:  Auburn has played mostly close games this season, but they've won them all.  If they don't let themselves get overconfident after their victory over South Carolina, they should have no problem against the Indians.  AUBURN

#19 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones:  I don't think the Raiders needed an extra week to prepare for the Cyclones, although their defense can always use some extra practice.  The offense, though not as powerful as when Mike Leach was coaching, is ready to roll over their opponents.  TEXAS TECH

Penn State Nittany Lions at #21 Iowa Hawkeyes:  For the past two seasons, the Iowa Hawkeyes have been a major obstacle to the Nittany Lions' attempt to win a Big Ten title.  They want revenge, but the Lions have been struggling with freshman Rob Bolden under center.  RB Evan Royster regained his form on Saturday, but they played long-time opponent Temple.  While Penn State wants to get past Iowa, the Hawkeyes offense, led by 5th-year senior QB Ricky Stanzi, is firing on all cylinders, and their defense isn't so bad either.  IOWA

Big Ten
Northwestern Wildcats at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  This has not been a good year for the Gophers.  They'd love to win their conference opener, but I don't think so.  NORTHWESTERN

GAME OF THE WEEK:  #24 Texas Longhorns at #8 Oklahoma Sooners:  The Red River Rivalry plays early this season, as the Longhorns hope to recover from their embarrasing loss to UCLA by beating their rival.  That won't be easy.  The Sooners offense is powerful, and defensive mistakes marred the second half against the Bruins.  Texas has had the upper hand in this rivalry in recent years, but Oklahoma wants to make the most of this situation.  Texas' offense has sputtered under Garret Gilbert, and if the defense doesn't get it together, Texas has no chance.  OKLAHOMA

Other Games of Interest:
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson Tigers:  Miami has been trying to live up to preseason hype, but their performance has been mediocre.  Yes, they scored against a tough Ohio State defense, but that same defense forced too many turnovers and mistakes.  Clemson may not force as many, but they know how to capitalize on the ones Miami may make.  CLEMSON

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons:  Navy has ruled the service academies in recent years, but the team is sinking this season; they even trail Army!  Air Force is doing well in the competitive Mountain West, so Navy won't be too much of a challenge.  AIR FORCE

East Carolina Pirates at North Carolina Tar Heels:  The Pirates had an extra week to prepare, and the Tar Heels have been disappointing so far.  Looks like the Pirates get back on track.  EAST CAROLINA

Washington State Cougars at UCLA Bruins:  If the Bruins don't burn themselves out from celebrating their Texas victory, this should be the game that pushes them to a winning record.  It would cap a great turnaround from a 0-2 start that included the terrible shutout against Stanford.  UCLA

Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers:  The Beavers could surprise, but the Sun Devils are a strong team.  While the upset is an option, I'll go the safe route on this Pac-10 batle.  ARIZONA STATE