NCAA 2011 Week 6 picks

With everyone getting into conference play, there should be some interesting rivalry games where records don't matter as much.  Let's see where upsets can come from...

Thursday, Oct 6
California Golden Bears at #17 Oregon Ducks:  Oregon has the edge, but Cal can be tricky.  Oregon learned something from their Week 1 defeat by LSU - don't take anything for granted.  They also learned to be more careful with the ball.  Cal might need a turnover to win this game, and I don't know if the Ducks will give them one.  OREGON

Friday, Oct 7
#9 Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs:  Fresno is struggling this season, so this will be an easy win for the Broncos.  BOISE STATE

Top 25
Colorado Buffaloes at #1 Stanford Cardinal:  Colorado is counting their money, which is the only good thing to come from moving to the Pac-12.  Actually, given the number of unbeaten teams in the Big XII right now, maybe Colorado has a better shot at a decent season in this conference than their old home.  This game won't help that quest.  STANFORD

Vanderbilit Commodores at #2 Alabama Crimson Tide:  If the Tide can prevent a letdown after their tremendous win in the Swamp, this game shouldn't be too tough.  The Commodores aren't as pitiful as most years, so the Tide should take them seriously.  I think Nick Saban will.  ALABAMA

Kansas Jayhawks at #4 Oklahoma State Cowboys:  The Cowboys took an extra week to prepare for this game, not that I think they needed it.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#12 Florida Gators at #6 LSU Tigers:  The Gators want to vindicate themselves after a horrible loss in the Swamp.  They will play LSU tough.  I think the Tigers will win, because they have a better defense, but this is a definite upset possibility.  LSU

#8 Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats:  You have to pity the Wildcats.  They just get Persa back at QB, and he's knocked out in the fourth quarter against Illinois.  They had a two-score lead in the third quarter, and that gets erased.  Now they get another high-powered offense coming into town.  The Wolverines defense isn't as good, but with Persa injured again, they won't need as strong a defense as the Illini did.  MICHIGAN

Boston College Eagles at #10 Clemson Tigers:  Clemson is not used to being the team to beat in the ACC, but they should maintain that status against a struggling Eagles team.  CLEMSON

Maryland Terrapins at #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets:  The Yellow Jackets got past North Carolina and NC State, but Maryland can be tough.  This one has upset potential, but I'll stick with Tech.  GEORGIA TECH

Missouri Tigers at #13 Kansas State Wildcats:  Missouri is in the midst of a rebuilding year, so Kansas State won't really be tested this week.  KANSAS STATE

#25 Auburn Tigers at #14 Arkansas Razorbacks:  Arkansas gets a real test.  The Tigers are unbeaten in conference play, while Arkansas lost to Alabama.  This game also has upset written all over it, but I like the home team.  They played well in their loss to Alabama (much better than Florida did), while Auburn has not looked sharp.  Auburn hasn't faced the toughest teams in the conference yet.  The Tigers are young; they are learning quickly, but I don't think they've learned enough to stop Arkansas.  ARKANSAS

East Carolina Pirates at #15 Houston Cougars:  East Carolina's only win this season has been against a conference opponent, but they now they face their greatest challenge.  The Pirates' defense is not working well this year, which opens the door to the Cougars' offense.  HOUSTON

Kentucky Wildcats at #18 South Carolina Gamecocks:  The Gamecocks need to bounce back from their close loss to Auburn, and throttling Kentucky seems a good way to do that.  SOUTH CAROLINA

Iowa State Cyclones at #19 Baylor Bears:  The Cyclones lost their first game last week, as did Baylor.  This will be a redemption game for one of them.  Baylor lost by only a single point, while the Cyclones were thrashed.  The Cyclones will be hotter for a victory, but the Bears have Robert Griffin III.  He may have thrown his first interception at the end of the game last week, but he's still the most accurate passer in FBS.  BAYLOR

Ohio State Buckeyes at #20 Nebraska Cornhuskers:  Speaking of redemption game, here's another one.  Both teams lost in their conference opener.  Nebraska's defense was demolished by the high-powered offense of Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes offense has sputtered all season long.  They get back their best receiver and best runner this week, though, so that might make the difference for Ohio State.  Nebraska is a good team, but they aren't used to the tough defenses in the Big Ten; the defenses aren't as tough in the Big XII.  That will make the difference.  OHIO STATE in a stunner

#21 Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  The Aggies started the season strongly, but I think their time is over.  They aren't consistent enough to keep pace with the offenses of the top teams in the Biog XII.  The Aggies will lose their Top 25 ranking while the Raiders gain one with their first win against a strong team.  TEXAS TECH

#24 Miami Hurricanes at #22 Virginia Tech Hokies:  The Hurricanes had an extra week to prepare, but the worst thing that could have happened to Miami was a Hokie loss last week.  Now Tech is committed to keep pace with the Yellow Jackets in the Coastal Division.  Miami's defense will control the pace early, but Tech will wear down the defense, allowing them to come from behind.  VIRGINIA TECH

Big Ten
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers:  Minnesota was destroyed last week, while Purdue got a break.  The Gophers showed strength earlier this season, but they've been gradually losing it.  Purdue is rested and desperate for a win in their conference opener.  I like their chances.  PURDUE

Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers:  The Illini are 5-0 for the first time since 1951, when Dick Butkus guided them to a national championship.  Likely losses by Nebraska, Auburn, and the Miami-Virginia Tech loser will provide openings in the rankings that Illinois can grab with an impressive win.  ILLINOIS

Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions:  Iowa has fallen off the radar after lackluster non-conference performances, so they want a strong victory in their conference opener to recapture attention.  Penn State always battles hard.  Both teams have some quarterback issues, but Penn State has the better defense. PENN STATE

And the rest...
UConn Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers:  The Mountaineers redeem themselves with a big victory over the defending conference winner in their Big East opener.  WEST VIRGINIA

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons:  Wake Forest has the better record, but they haven't played well, and have played mostly weak teams.  The Seminoles have toughened themselves with games against Oklahoma and Clemson.  Although those were losses, they kept themselves in those games, thanks to a stiff defense.  That defense will swarm Wake Forest.  FLORIDA STATE

Air Force Falcons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  A huge victory over Purdue might set up the Irish for a letdown, but they love to beat the Falcons.  They have the tools to do it.  NOTRE DAME

Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  Rutgers leads the conference right now, thanks to a 3-1 record and win over Syracuse.  However, they face the only other team to beat a Big East opponent this season.  Pitt will make it two.  PITT

Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers:  With the losses to Florida and South Carolina last week, many national analysts are looking at Georgia to be a dark horse candidate to win the SEC East.  I'd say that is EXTREMELY dark.  The Bulldogs have not been impressive in their victories, while other teams in the division have impressed.  One of them?  Tennessee, who should win this match.  TENNESSEE