Whew! I've enjoyed myself too much in Hawaii; almost forgot to make this post. I need to redeem myself from a poor wildcard round, though. I thought all four road teams might win, and picked three of them; only Seattle prevailed. I will admit that Cincy shot themselves in the foot, making too many mistakes to win, even against a struggling Houston team. It says something about the Texans that that game produced the smallest margin of victory.
This week, my picks are reversed. I favor most of the home teams. The odds-makers favor all of them, but I question that.
Saturday games:
#4 Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at #1 Denver Broncos (13-3) : The Ravens dominated the Colts last week, but they were getting lots of emotional support from the home fans, as well as Ray Lewis' announced retirement (which I'm betting he'll reverse if they fail to reach the AFC Championship Game). They have neither of those benefits this week, and have to face Peyton Manning and a quicker Broncos team. The Broncos also have a better running game, so they can switch up the plays enough to keep the Ravens off-balance. BRONCOS, 27-16
#3 Green Bay Packers (12-5) at #2 San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) : This will be a closer game than many people realize, although the odds makers agree it will be close (San Fran is giving 3 points). The 49ers beat the Packers when they met in the regular season, but the Pack made a game of it. The Packers can be tough when they find a groove, and they had found that towards the end of the season. It's going to come down to the strength of the 49ers secondary. If they can prevent a big play and keep the receivers covered, forcing Rodgers to hold onto the ball too long, they can beat them. The secondary is good, and can do that for a while, but the question is whether the Packers will find holes late in the game and come back. I'll pick San Fran, but this game could go either way. 49ERS, 24-23
Sunday games:
#5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at #1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3) : The Falcons are favored, and I have to ask, "Why?" First off, Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game in his career. Secondly, did the odds makers WATCH last week's game. The Seahawks defense stymied RGIII and the Redskins offense. Yes, RGIII started hot, before the Seahawks defense had come together, but after the first two drives, the Redskins offense did little else. The Seahawks will shut down the Falcons just as easily. SEAHAWKS, 24-10
The interesting thing about this game is that neither Green Bay nor San Francisco want to face Seattle in the NFC Championship Game, so I'm sure both are rooting are Atlanta. Why is Seattle such a threat? The last time Seattle came to Green Bay for a playoff game, Seattle embarrassed the Pack. And Seattle did the same thing the last time they face the 49ers, a 42-13 pasting in Week 16.
#3 Houston Texans (13-4) at #2 New England Patriots (12-4) : The Patriots are 9.5 point favorites, and I think they'll win by even more than that. If Cincy hadn't made so many mistakes last week, they would have been the Texans, who played lackluster. If the Texans can't get it up for the Pats, the red-hot Pats offense will roll early. That takes Adrian Foster out of the game, as the Texans will have to pass too often, and that allows the Pats to control the game. PATRIOTS, 34-13
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