NCAA Week 1 results + Top 25

To all of my loyal fans, welcome back!  I know that a new job kept me too busy to blog last year, but I was surprised to realize that I skipped 2015 as well.  Thank you for your patience and your commitment.

To new folks, welcome to the continuation of a football column that began back in 1984.  For a while it was the Internet sports magazine "Top of the Key", and has been here on Blogger (formerly BlogSpot) for several years.

A few items for my new followers:  I comment on previous week results, post my own Top 25 (based on a computerized model using five key indicators of success), comment on the Big Ten conference (where I was born and raised), and predict the next week of games.  I do not comment on point spreads or over/under, as I do not advocate gambling.  I only pick winning teams, not margins.

As far as my Top 25, I do not produce a preseason ranking.  That is purely guesswork, based on what a writer would LIKE to see, or consisting mostly of the common teams and a few who did well the year before.  I don't start my Top 25 until teams start playing.  In order to be eligible for the Top 25, you must have played an FBS opponent and you must have a positive points differential (points scored - points given up) against FBS opponents.

That said, let's start with the...

Top 25 - Week 1
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0)
2. Stanford Cardinal (1-0)
3. Clemson Tigers (1-0)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0)
6. Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
7. Wisconsin Badgers (1-0)
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-0)
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-0)
10. LSU Tigers (1-0)
11. Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
12. Auburn Tigers (1-0)
13. Washington Huskies (1-0)
14. Michigan State Spartans (1-0)
15. Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0)
16. UCF Golden Knights (1-0)
17. Navy Midshipmen (1-0)
18. Georgia Bulldogs (1-0)
19. USC Trojans (1-0)
20. Virginia Tech Hokies (1-0)
21. UCLA Bruins (1-0)
22. Tennessee Volunteers (1-0)
23. South Florida Bulls (2-0)
24. Maryland Terrapins (1-0)
25. Northwestern Wildcats (1-0)

Big Ten Report
It was an impressive first win.  Only three teams lost their openers (one was going to happen, as two conference opponents played each other), and two of the losing teams were impressive even in losing.   Rutgers was the only real disappointment, and they were facing a ranked team, so a poor showing wasn't surprising.  There were two surprising winners, who I will discuss in the "Great Performers" section.

The best teams started slowly, as Ohio State and Wisconsin required nearly two quarters to get their "game legs" back, while Michigan was a bit lackluster in the first quarter.  Penn State was really the only "top dog" to come out biting. This is not too surprising, especially with the practice limitations imparted by the NCAA and the number of top players these teams had to replace.

Overall, it seems like a strong season for the conference, especially for commonly lower-tier teams like Indiana and Maryland.  Both exhibited strong offenses that should only improve as the season progresses, so long as they can remain healthy.

Upset Alerts
It was not a great opening week for some teams.  Wyoming, who were very impressive season, failed to deliver, falling to Iowa 24-3.  We had some FCS opponents win, including James Madison (beating East Carolina), Howard (beating UNLV), and Liberty (who does not begin FBS play until 2019) up-ending Baylor.  Baylor definitely seems to be a team in a rebuilding state.

The other upset was Texas, who lost to Maryland.  I don't consider that as much as an upset as the national analysts, though.  I could not figure out why Texas was ranked in the preseason Top 25.  That would seem to indicate that the analysts were playing Charlie Strong for Texas' struggles last year, as new coach Tom Herman inherited all of the same players.  Why would Texas struggle last year and be a contender this year, with the same slate of players recruited by Strong, unless it was Strong's leadership and play calling that was being questioned?  Yet, everyone thinks South Florida, Strong's new team, was a preseason Top 25 team as well.  Things didn't seem to add up.  Indeed, Maryland showed that the flaws Texas had last season (sputtering offense, non-existent defense) still exist.

Poor Performers
Some won, some lost, but none of these teams showed they had Top 25 caliber, at least to open the season.  One did make the Top 25, but only due to a scoring spate, aided by a turnover, late in the game. USC proved the danger of overly hyping a player in preseason.  QB Sam Darnold was being touted as a Heisman contender.  His performance on Saturday was good, but not Heisman caliber.  USC was also being considered a playoff contender, but if that defense doesn't improve, they won't even win the Pac-12.

Speaking of poor defense, let's add NEBRASKA to that list.  While Arkansas State is a decent that most people ignore, since they play in the Sun Belt Conference, they still should not have scored 36 points on Nebraska.  There are too many powerful offenses in the Big Ten, including Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan, for Nebraska to have such a weak defense.  If they don't improve that squad, it will be a long year.

Defense was also an issue for MISSOURI.  They were fortunate that Missouri State's defense is no good, or else we may have seen an upset there.  ANY FBS team allowing a "middle of the road" FCS team to score 43 points needs to address their defense. That's why OREGON STATE is a concern, as well, although they did keep Portland State to 32 points.  Since the Beavers only scored 35 points themselves, though, it was another upset in the making.

The other side of the ball (offense) was the bane of a couple of teams, including FLORIDA.  They were high on their quarterback, but the Wolverines brought that down to earth very quickly.  More troubling for the Gators, though, is the utter lack of a running game.  Both the defense (in turnovers) and special teams (in returns) gained more yards on the ground than the Gators' backs.  PITTSBURGH also suffered from a weak offense, who failed to score in one overtime period, forcing a second overtime period.

Great Performers
Though dominated by surprise Big Ten teams this week, one performance must be recognized.  UCLA was down 44-10 to Texas A&M late in the third quarter.  Fans were leaving, and I had switched to the other game playing on Sunday night.  Then, inconsistent QB Josh Rosen found this groove.  Engineering four drives that each took less than three minutes, he brought them within six points.  When a defensive stop gave the Bruins another chance on offense with slightly more than two minutes to play, Rosen executed his FIFTH excellent drive to take the lead.  A&M had enough time to get within field goal range, but a penalty and bad kick ensured that the best comeback in Pac-12 history remained a victory.

As the Big Ten Report stated, there were some surprises in the Big Ten.  Neither Maryland nor Purdue were expected to accomplish much this season, but I think we all may need to reevaluate that stance.  MARYLAND hounded Texas all day, and never relinquished an early lead.  The Terrapins posted 51 points against the Longhorns, more points scored by Maryland than in any two games combined last year.  Watch out for this offense, it's a doozy!  PURDUE also held pace with their opponent, a ranked Louisville.  I'm not sure if the Boilermakers looked so good due to a strong offense or a poor Louisville defense; we need another week or two to be sure.  Regardless, the traditional Big Ten doormat had an excellent game, despite losing by seven, and butchered Louisville's Top 25 chances (as performance v strength of opponent's 5-year history is a key success factor in my model).