NCAA Week 8 picks

We've had two weeks of Top 25 upsets.  Will that continue?  Let's see...

Thurs Oct 19
Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars:  The battle of the big cats has major conference placement implications.  Both teams have looked good, although recently Houston has lost some of their shine.  I like the strength of Memphis' offense, but I'm going to flip on this one and pick the home team.  This game could easily go the other way, and it'll be a close game regardless of the winner.  HOUSTON

Fri Oct 20
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos:  Not really an interesting game among the bunch, but this comes the closest to helping place division leaders.  Colorado State is looking decent, and have to be favored in this match-up.  COLORADO STATE

Sat Oct 21
Tennessee Volunteers at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide:  With the recent spate of Top 5 upsets, Alabama and Penn State have been the only consistent power teams of the bunch.  Don't expect the Vols to alter the Tide's trajectory.  ALABAMA

#16 Michigan Wolverines at #2 Penn State Nittany Lions:  The defenses will battle ferociously in this game.  The difference will be the offensive line of Penn State, blocking for and setting up running back Saquon Barkley.  It may take Penn State a quarter or so to do it, but they'll find a way to punch enough holes for Barkley to run over the Wolverines.  PENN STATE

Maryland Terrapins at #4 Wisconsin Badgers:  Maryland has had too many injuries to keep up the offensive pace that beat Texas in Week 1.  Wisconsin's defense will certainly take advantage of that.  While the Badgers offense is not built to come from behind, they won't have to do that here.  WISCONSIN

#7 UCF Golden Knights at Navy Midshipmen:  Navy lost their first game last week, and now head into some stiff competition.  That includes tough UCF.  The Knights score too quickly to give the Navy offense a chance to regroup, and that will eventually cause problems late in the game.  UCF

Kansas Wildcats at #8 TCU Horned Frogs:  TCU wants to represent the Big XII in the playoffs. As the only unbeaten team in the conference, they have a chance.  Kansas won't jeopardize that.  TCU

#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #23 Texas Longhorns:  Texas couldn't quite overcome Oklahoma last week in the Red River Rivalry, and now the other Oklahoma team comes to town.  The Cowboys could fare even better, which will march a serious blow to Tom Herman's plans for the Longhorns.  OKLAHOMA STATE

#15 USC Trojans at #10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:  This is perhaps the most intriguing Top 25 match-up of the week.  USC has not always looked good, but they have found ways to win in the fourth quarter.  Notre Dame prefers to get a lead and hold it.  These two strategies will clash in South Bend.  I think Notre Dame can get a big enough to hold on, but they'll have to keep scoring in the fourth to overcome any Trojans comeback.  NOTRE DAME

#12 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats:  Oklahoma had a tough time beating Texas last week, but they'll have an easier time of it this week.  Kansas State is showing weaknesses now that conference play has started.  They won't be a contender in the Big XII.  OKLAHOMA

#13 South Florida Bulls at Tulane Green Wave:  South Florida will roll easily.  SOUTH FLORIDA

North Carolina Tar Heels at #14 Virginia Tech Hokies:  North Carolina can be tricky, but Virginia Tech should have this game in the bag by the end of the third quarter.  VIRGINIA TECH

#17 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks:  Auburn is seething from their loss to LSU last week, and they need to unleash some frustration.  Enter the Razorbacks.  That frustration might result in some early penalties, which might help give Arkansas an early lead.  They won't be able to sustain that, though.  AUBURN

Colorado Buffaloes at #19 Washington State Cougars:  What a difference a year makes!  Last year the Buffaloes were the surprise team in the Pac-12, advancing to the conference championship.  This year that won't happen.  Washington State might do that, though, and this game will help that effort.  WASHINGTON STATE

Syracuse Orange at #20 Miami Hurricanes:  Syracuse beat previously unbeaten (and seemingly unbeatable) Clemson last week, so Miami has to be concerned.  Everything aligned perfectly for Syracuse, though, including a key Clemson injury, so I don't think it's in the stars for a second consecutive upset.  MIAMI

#22 West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears:  Believe it or not, the Bears are still looking for their first win of the season.  I don't think they'll find it here.  The Mountaineers have really show strength this year, especially on defense.  I think Baylor will struggle to score more than 15 points.  WEST VIRGINIA

Arizona State Sun Devils at #24 Utah Utes:  The Sun Devils stink on the road this season, and Utah will smother them.  UTAH

Indiana Hoosiers at #25 Michigan State Spartans:  Indiana is capable of playing tough, and their offense will test the Spartans defense.  The Spartans offense is waking up, though, and that may make the difference in this game.  MICHIGAN STATE

Big Ten
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats:  This game could decide if anyone can dethrone Wisconsin from the West division crown.  Wisconsin has already beaten Northwestern and Nebraska. Iowa is really the only possible contender.  The Hawkeyes need a win here to keep that possibility alive.  The Wildcats mauled Maryland last week, so this will determine how much of that was due to Northwestern's ability and how much due to Maryland's injury losses.  IOWA

Purdue Boilermakers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  The Knights beat Illinois last week, and this is the only other reasonable chance for a conference win for Rutgers.  Purdue can play tough, and their defense showed up nicely last week.  I have to give the Boilermakers the edge, although Rutgers might pull this one out.  PURDUE

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers:  Wither Illinois, this seems to be another rebuilding year for the team.  MINNESOTA

Other Games of Interest
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders:  The Cyclones are pulling attention away from in-state rival Iowa, especially since their upset of Oklahoma.  Despite a ten-point loss to Texas, Iowa State is proving to be a serious contender in the Big XII.  Texas Tech has shown flashes, but they are consistently strong enough, nor hold onto the ball long enough, for me to trust they can beat the new force in the conference.  IOWA STATE

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs:  This should be a fun battle!  Kentucky has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference, while Mississippi State has one of the stronger offenses.  With a 1-2 SEC record, Mississippi State looks like the underdog, but remember those two losses were against ranked Georgia and Auburn, and their win was the start of LSU's collapse.  I like the Bulldogs to win this one.  MISSISSIPPI STATE

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels:  Speaking of LSU, they are attempting to build on their upset of Auburn last week.  A sputtering Ole Miss team should help that.  LSU

Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears:  Arizona has quietly put together a strong showing this season, second in the South division to only USC.  A win here keeps them just a game behind, and the game against the Trojans still ahead.  ARIZONA