Sunday, November 12, 2017

NCAA Week 11 results and Top 25

We had several upsets this week, many affecting the Top 25.  As a result, the Pac-12 has lost any chance of appearing in the playoffs, and Notre Dame's chances are slim to none.  The ACC may have clinched a spot, and the chance of two SEC teams is dwindling.  UCF might actually become the first Group of Five representative in the playoffs if upsets continue at this rate.

Top 25 [Last week's position]
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-0) [1]
2. Wisconsin Badgers (10-0) [3]
3. Clemson Tigers (9-1) [6]
4. Oklahoma Sooners (9-1) [7]
5. UCF Golden Knights (9-0) [8]
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-2) [10]
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) [9]
8. Auburn Tigers (8-2) [11]
9. Miami Hurricanes (9-0) [14]
10. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1) [2]
11. Washington Huskies (8-2) [5]
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2) [12]
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) [4]
14. Michigan Wolverines (8-2) [19]
15. TCU Horned Frogs (8-2) [13]
16. South Florida Bulls (8-1) [17]
17. USC Trojans (9-2) [18]
18. Virginia Tech Hokies (7-3) [15]
19. Stanford Cardinal (7-3) [23]
20. Washington State Cougars (9-2) [20]
21. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-3) [16]
22. Memphis Tigers (8-1) [22]
23. Ohio Bobcats (8-2) [NR]
24. Arizona Wildcats (7-3) [NR]
25. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-3) [NR]

Dropped off: Toledo Rockets [#21], Boise State Broncos [#24], Iowa Hawkeyes [#25]
On the Edge:  San Diego State Aztecs (8-2), Troy Trojans (8-2), Northern Illinois Huskies (7-3), Marshall Thundering Herd (7-3), Northwestern Wildcats (7-3), Army Black Knights (8-2), Florida Atlantic Owls (7-3), Houston Cougars (6-3), North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-3)

Upset Alerts
It began on Tuesday, as the MAC began to suffer the same problems as the Big Ten faced previously.  Top teams were dropping, including AKRON on Tuesday and TOLEDO on Wednesday.  BYU then shocked UNLV on Friday. All of that just proved to be a warmup for Saturday.  Georgia Tech beat VIRGINIA TECH, Auburn clobbered #2 GEORGIA, Miami  destroyed NOTRE DAME, and Old Dominion toppled FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL.

Title Races
Atlantic Coast Coastal:  Miami gained this one despite playing a non-conference game.  They have Georgia Tech to thank for that.
Atlantic Coast Atlantic: Clemson has clinched this one.
American Athletic East: The bout between UCF and South Florida in two weeks will likely clinch this one, unless South Florida loses next week and UCF wins.  In that case, UCF wins regardless of the result of their battle with South Florida.
American Athletic West: This one didn't change from last week, as both Memphis and Houston had bye weeks.  Memphis wins the division with a win.  Houston would need Memphis to lose both of their remaining games AND Houston would have to win out.
Big XII: Oklahoma claims this one with a win, despite the presence of a "faux" conference championship game this season. Since they play Kansas, it seems likely that Oklahoma will triumph.
Big Ten West: Wisconsin has clinched this division with their first 10-0 start in school history
Big Ten East: Ohio State wins the division by beating Illinois and a Michigan loss OR beating Michigan in two weeks.
Conference USA East: Florida Atlantic clinches with a win over Florida International.  The Golden Panthers need a win AND another Owls loss to clinch.
Conference USA West: North Texas clinched this division
MAC West: Northern Illinois has life.  If Toledo loses again and the Huskies win out, they clinch the division.  Western Michigan would need to beat BOTH of those teams, while Central Michigan would need to beat Northern Illinois AND have Toledo lose again.
MAC East: Ohio wins by beating Akron this week.  Akron would need to beat Ohio AND have Buffalo beat Ohio in two weeks.
Mountain West West:  Fresno State clinches with a win.  San Diego State needs to win out AND Fresno State loses both of their remaining games.
Mountain West Mountain: Boise State faces the same situation -- they clinch with a win.  Wyoming would need to win out AND have Boise lose both of their remaining games.
Pac-12 North: This one has gotten more interesting. Washington State wins by beating Washington in two weeks.  Thanks to Stanford's win, Washington would need to win out AND have Stanford lose to Cal. Stanford wins by beating Cal AND Washington beating Washington State.
Pac-12 South:   USC has clinched
SEC West: The winner of the Iron Bowl in two weeks wins this division
SEC East: Georgia
Sun Belt: This one remains the same as last week: "Arkansas State wins by winning out.  Troy wins by winning out, as they play Arkansas State in the last week.  Appalachian State and Georgia State need to win out AND hope both Arkansas State and Troy lose twice."

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