Start of a new season, and I have a new crystal ball. I need to break it in, so some of my picks may get a little murky for the first few weeks, but I should have the bugs worked out before Sam Darnold gets comfortable.
Thursday Sept 6
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Foles leads the Eagles in this rematch of the NFC Championship Game. This one will likely end in a similar fashion. The O-line is still one of the staunchest in the league, and their multitude of tight ends presents too many targets for the Falcons to stop. While Atlanta is talented, their offensive game plan has gotten stale. They didn't improve their defense much over the off-season either, and they cannot lean on that offense forever. EAGLES, 27-17
Sunday early games
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens: Let's face it, Nathan Peterman is just playing until the coaches feel Josh Allen is ready. Peterman is not a long-term solution at quarterback; I'm not even sure he's a short-term solution! The Ravens defense may not be quite as good as they were a few years ago, but they won't need to be to hold off the Bills. Meanwhile, Flacco and his slate of receivers should have a good day. RAVENS, 27-13
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: Ooh, this one is too close for my new crystal ball to call! Have to go with my gut on this one, and that has me favor Cincy. The Bengals are often great in regular season and collapse in post-season, so they should do well here. Andrew Luck is healthy, but if that o-line doesn't get better, I don't know how much longer he will be. BENGALS, 20-13
Houston Texans at New England Patriots: The Patriots lost the Super Bowl, so they want to impress in every game they play. They get a good chance to start here, especially if Texans QB DeShaun Watson doesn't cut down on his risky throws. The Pats backfield is too good to miss opportunities to intercept the ball, and fast enough to turn those into long returns. PATRIOTS, 34-21
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants: Jags QB Blake Bortles need to improve his game, but the Jags D is tough enough to win while he develops. The Giants will show their o-line weaknesses against Jacksonville, and Eli's age will slow him down too much to prevent that penetration from harming them. I expect at least eight sacks in this game, and a possible lost fumble. JAGS, 16-10
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Le'Veon Bell's attitude is causing some discord among the Steelers, but this team has played (and won) under adversity before. The question is can the Steelers succeed without a decent runner? Backup James Connor is a far cry from Bell, and the Steelers need a strong running game to shore up a thin receiving corps. Fortunately the Browns won't give them too much trouble. STEELERS, 17-13
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: Uh oh, my crystal ball sputtered out on this one, too. Have to rely on faith. Jimmy Garopollo sparked the 49ers at the end of last season, and a strong defense helps them. However, the Vikings made one of the best QB acquisitions of the off-season, signing oft-scoffed Kirk Cousins to rejuvenate the passing game. Dalvin Cook improves the running game, so this offense has some spark. Cousins, a midwesterner, loves being back in his home region, and feeds off the fan fervor. While he can get confused when coverages break down, his chief receivers (Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Laquon Treadwell, and Kyle Rudolph) are good route runners. That should boost Cousins even further. VIKINGS, 27-20
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints: The Bucs offense was inconsistent with Jameis Winston under center. Having him sit out the first three games grants them some consistency. Unfortunately, it is likely to be consistently poor. The defense may keep some games close, but not against the fiery Saints offense. SAINTS, 34-17
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill is back leading the Dolphins, but if that o-line doesn't improve, he may not be standing for too long. The Titans have a quick and hungry pass rush, so Tannehill will spend more time on his butt than celebrating completions. Marcus Mariota isn't quite living up to his college hype, but this defense will ensure he doesn't need to. TITANS, 20-16
Sunday late games
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers: The Cowboys enter this season with much less controversy than last season. That will allow them to get down and focus. This team has spunk, youth, and talent to support them. Carolina has some good players, but they don't gel at the same time, leaving many plays seeming uncoordinated. Expect Dallas to make matters even tougher for the offense. COWBOYS, 27-17
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers: Letting Alex Smith go was a mistake. Patrick Mahomes put up big numbers at Texas Tech, but that team is designed for pass-hungry offenses, as their defense can't stop a band of puppy dogs. Come to think of it, we're not sure the Chiefs defense is much better. CHARGERS, 27-13
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos: Speaking of defenses seeing better days, the once-dominant Seahawks has been stripped bare the past few years. Worse, the Seahawks have a real problem on the road. Denver got smart, and snared Case Keenum from Minnesota to settle their QB problem. He can think quick when the line breaks down, which happens frequently at Denver. With his quick thinking and a batch of good runners to pitch the ball to when plays go bust, the Broncos might reduce their numbers of three-and-out possessions and make some yardage. BRONCOS, 17-13
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: I'm trying to think what was a stupider quarterback move in Washington in recent history: letting Kirk Cousins go or not stopping RGIII from running into defenders so much. Either way, Alex Smith will not be the answer to their prayers. Why not? He's too damn conservative. He won't throw unless he's sure a receiver can get open, and the Redskins don't have a lot of speedy receivers. Their running game is burdened by an older and beat-up Adrian Peterson, so he won't get much help there, either. Sam Bradford is just playing until Josh Rosen can start, but so long as Larry Fitzgerald remains healthy, it almost doesn't matter who is under center. CARDINALS, 21-13
Sunday night game
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Yuck! The Bears lost two preseason games in pathetic fourth quarter meltdowns. Doesn't do much to boost my confidence in them. The Packers are healthy (for now), which makes them dangerous. PACK, 31-13
Monday Night Football
New York Jets at Detroit Lions: Silly Todd Bowles, he gave into the New York City hype machine. Yes, Sam Darnold played well in preseason, but that was preseason, against weaker defenses. Since you got David Wells from the Giants, you should start him instead of Darnold. Nope, they are going with the USC "Golden Boy", who will sputter as much as the last USC QB to start in New York. Worse, since the Jets didn't do much to shore up their defense in the off-season, they are relying too much on Darnold's ability to lead this team. LIONS, 27-16
LA Rams at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders play very well on Monday Night, and everyone is saying that this will be the year the Raiders return to glory. Sorry, I don't see it. Yes, Jon Gruden is a wizard with quarterbacks, and he could possibly turn mediocre journeyman Derek Carr into something decent, but he's more focused on bringing up AJ McCarron. The defensive backfield is still too slow, RB Marshawn Lynch has lost a step, and Jordy Nelson can't seem to stay healthy. On the other side, the Rams offense in 2017 reminded us of Dick Vermeil's Greatest Show on Turf. Jared Goff doesn't quite have the arm strength Kurt Warner had, but he has a similar field sense and accuracy. Brandin Cooks reminds us of LT in his bursts of speed and quick cuts, and a slew of able receivers to bring on and off the field ensures a bunch of fresh hands. Even better, the Rams defense circa 2017 was MUCH better than what Vermeil had in St Louis, making them a real favorite to reach the NFC Championship Game. RAMS, 27-13
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